# Composer Poll prediction game



## Nereffid (Feb 6, 2013)

First off, thanks :cheers: to all who have voted in the A la carte Composer Polls, _especially_ to those who vote in every one. (And if you haven't - the list of polls can be found via my signature below!)
There are 14 more polls scheduled, which I'll post during January and February. There may also be a subequent "Round 2" pitting the most popular composers against each other.

In the meantime, here's a bit of fun for whoever wants to participate.

Below is a list of what may be the 35 most popular composers that haven't yet appeared in the polls. Only time will tell how they'll end up, of course, which is where the game comes in.
Your challenge is to predict the approximate percentage of voters who like each composer, based on how the voting has gone so far (the latest leaderboard will be in the next post below).
So if you think that, say, Albéniz will end up with a score of 50-something percent, then just put a 50 next to Albéniz's name. And so on. Nothing too specific - just multiples of 10, as seen in the leaderboard.

When the results of poll #43 come in in a couple of months' time, I'll reveal who came the closest. 
The prize? What could be better than knowing that maybe a handful of strangers on the Internet think you've shown some indication of a minor talent for something completely trivial? (Hey, it keeps _me_ going... :lol

So here's the list of 35 names whose scores you must predict:
Albéniz
Bach, CPE
Barber
Berg
Bizet
Britten
Copland
Donizetti
Dutilleux
Fauré
Feldman
Glass
Holst
Ives
Janáček
Josquin
Ligeti
Lully
Monteverdi
Nielsen
Palestrina
Puccini
Purcell
Rameau
Rodrigo
Rossini
Saint-Saëns
Scarlatti, D
Schnittke
Scriabin
Smetana
Walton
Weber
Webern
Xenakis


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## Nereffid (Feb 6, 2013)

And here's the leaderboard:

Liked by more than 90%:
Beethoven

Liked by more than 80%:
Bach, Bartók, Brahms, Debussy, Dvořák, Grieg, Haydn, Mahler, Mozart, Prokofiev, Rachmaninoff, Ravel, Schubert, Shostakovich, Sibelius, Strauss, Stravinsky, Tchaikovsky

Liked by more than 70%:
Berlioz, Bruckner, Chopin, Liszt, Mendelssohn, Mussorgsky, Schumann, Vaughan Williams, Wagner

Liked by more than 60%:
Borodin, Elgar, Handel, Poulenc, Respighi, Rimsky-Korsakov, Villa-Lobos, Vivaldi

Liked by more than 50%:
Bernstein, Delius, Falla, Gershwin, Glazunov, Hindemith, Khachaturian, Kodály, Martinů, Messiaen, Schoenberg, Verdi

Liked by more than 40%:
Arnold, Bax, Bellini, Berio, Boccherini, Boulez, Bruch, Couperin, Dukas, Enescu, Franck, Gluck, Honegger, Korngold, Penderecki, Rautavaara, Satie, Takemitsu

Liked by more than 30%:
Adams J, Alfvén, Bach, J Christian, Balakirev, Bloch, Busoni, Buxtehude, Byrd, Carter, Charpentier, Cherubini, Corelli, Dowland, Dufay, Finzi, Gesualdo, Glière, Glinka, Gorecki, Gounod, Granados, Gubaidulina, Henze, Hildegard, Hovhaness, Kurtág, Lutoslawski, Machaut, Milhaud, Myaskovsky, Offenbach, Paganini, Parry, Pärt, Piazzolla, Reger, Reich, Roussel, Saariaho, Schütz, Stenhammar, Stockhausen, Strauss J II, Tallis, Telemann, Varèse, Weill, Wolf, Zelenka, Zemlinsky

Liked by more than 20%:
Aho, Alkan, Alwyn, Arensky, Bach J Christoph, Berwald, Boulanger L, Boyce, Brian, Bull, Cage, Chabrier, Chin, Clementi, Crumb, Dallapiccola, Delibes, Duruflé, Ferneyhough, Frescobaldi, Gabrieli G, Gibbons, Goldmark, Grainger, Grofé, Haas GF, Hanson, Holmboe, Kabalevsky, Koechlin, Lachenmann, Lalo, Langgaard, Lassus, Martin, Mascagni, Massenet, Medtner, Moeran, Nono, Pergolesi, Pérotin, Pettersson, Piston, Rihm, Rubinstein, Sarasate, Scarlatti A, Scelsi, Schmidt, Sculthorpe, Silvestrov, Skalkottas, Sor, Sweelinck, Tippett, Vasks, Victoria, Wieniawski, Zappa

Liked by more than 10%:
There's another 98 composers, from Albinoni to Zorn - I'm not putting them all in! 
I expect that all 35 of the composers you're trying to predict will get at least 30%, so I don't think the extra information about this unpopular composers will be of any value to you. But the full leaderboard and an alphabetical list of composers are available on my Google Sites page, as linked in my signature.


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## Casebearer (Jan 19, 2016)

No one seems to dare so far so I'll be the first

Albéniz - 50%
Bach, CPE - 40%
Barber - 50%
Berg - 60%
Bizet - 70%
Britten - 60%
Copland - 50%
Donizetti - 50%
Dutilleux - 40%
Fauré - 60%
Feldman - 40%
Glass - 50%
Holst - 50%
Ives - 60%
Janáček - 70%
Josquin - 50%
Ligeti - 50%
Lully - 50%
Monteverdi - 70%
Nielsen - 70%
Palestrina - 40%
Puccini - 70%
Purcell - 60%
Rameau - 50%
Rodrigo - 40%
Rossini - 60%
Saint-Saëns - 60%
Scarlatti, D - 50%
Schnittke - 60%
Scriabin - 60%
Smetana - 60%
Walton - 50%
Weber - 60%
Webern - 50%
Xenakis - 40%


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## Art Rock (Nov 28, 2009)

Fun, let's see:

Albéniz - 30%
Bach, CPE - 40%
Barber - 40%
Berg - 40%
Bizet - 60%
Britten - 40%
Copland - 40%
Donizetti - 30%
Dutilleux - 30%
Fauré - 60%
Feldman - 20%
Glass - 30%
Holst - 40%
Ives - 40%
Janáček - 60%
Josquin - 40%
Ligeti - 50%
Lully - 40%
Monteverdi - 60%
Nielsen - 60%
Palestrina - 50%
Puccini - 70%
Purcell - 50%
Rameau - 40%
Rodrigo - 40%
Rossini - 50%
Saint-Saëns - 60%
Scarlatti, D - 40%
Schnittke - 30%
Scriabin - 50%
Smetana - 60%
Walton - 40%
Weber - 50%
Webern - 30%
Xenakis - 20%


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## Kjetil Heggelund (Jan 4, 2016)

Albéniz 70%
Bach, CPE 70%
Barber 60%
Berg 50%
Bizet 80%
Britten 70%
Copland 40%
Donizetti 40%
Dutilleux 30%
Fauré 80%
Feldman 10%
Glass 30%
Holst 30%
Ives 20%
Janáček 50%
Josquin 60%
Ligeti 50%
Lully 50%
Monteverd 70%i
Nielsen 60%
Palestrina 70%
Puccini 70%
Purcell 60%
Rameau 60%
Rodrigo 60%
Rossini 70%
Saint-Saëns 60%
Scarlatti, D 60%
Schnittke 50%
Scriabin 70%
Smetana 60%
Walton 60%
Weber 50%
Webern 40%
Xenakis 40%


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## Casebearer (Jan 19, 2016)

If it stays like this we'll all get a medal!!!!
So don't post anymore, please.....


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## Nereffid (Feb 6, 2013)

Amazing, the three of you agreed on only 4 composers out of 35!

I'm hoping to get a lot of responses, if only to test the idea of the "wisdom of crowds" - that the average of all the answers will be closer than the individual answers.
But I'll also post a few of my own predictions later, based on the various data I used to compile the list of composers in the first place.


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## Casebearer (Jan 19, 2016)

That's only acceptable if you participate outside of competition of course !


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## Nereffid (Feb 6, 2013)

Casebearer said:


> That's only acceptable if you participate outside of competition of course !


I assure you that the judging committee will be completely impartial. I can't bribe myself, after all. :devil:


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## musicrom (Dec 29, 2013)

Here's my go at it... initially I had multiples of 5, but had to adjust.

Albéniz: 30%
Bach, CPE: 40%
Barber: 40%
Berg: 40%
Bizet: 70%
Britten: 70%
Copland: 70%
Donizetti: 30%
Dutilleux: 30%
Fauré: 50%
Feldman: 40%
Glass: 60%
Holst: 60%
Ives: 70%
Janáček: 70%
Josquin: 40%
Ligeti: 60%
Lully: 40%
Monteverdi: 50%
Nielsen: 60%
Palestrina: 40%
Puccini: 70%
Purcell: 60%
Rameau: 50%
Rodrigo: 40%
Rossini: 70%
Saint-Saëns: 80%
Scarlatti, D: 50%
Schnittke: 60%
Scriabin: 60%
Smetana: 70%
Walton: 50%
Weber: 50%
Webern: 50%
Xenakis: 40%

I'd be interested to see how close the average of everybody's guesses will be. I'm guessing it will be much closer to the actual than most individual guesses.


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## Nereffid (Feb 6, 2013)

Here's my own predictions. The first number is my own estimate. The number in parentheses is an automated prediction based on the results so far.
(Long boring explanation: when choosing which composers were to go in each poll, I first had to rank the composers so that each poll would get several well-known names. I did this by combining data from other sources that ranked composers. One data set I ended up with combined two earlier TC polls with the results of my earlier works polls to give a "score" to each composer. So for the automated prediction I plotted the scores of the composers already featured in the polls against the actual percentage they got, calculated a linear trend line to fit the graph, and used the line's equation to calculate a predicted result for the 35 composers here, based on their existing "score".)

Albéniz: 50 (40)
Bach, CPE: 40 (50)
Barber: 60 (60)
Berg: 60 (70)
Bizet: 60 (50)
Britten: 60 (60)
Copland: 70 (60)
Donizetti: 40 (40)
Dutilleux: 30 (30)
Fauré: 60 (60)
Feldman: 30 (30)
Glass: 30 (30)
Holst: 50 (50)
Ives: 60 (60)
Janáček: 60 (60)
Josquin: 40 (50)
Ligeti: 50 (60)
Lully: 40 (30)
Monteverdi: 50 (70)
Nielsen: 70 (70)
Palestrina: 40 (50)
Puccini: 60 (60)
Purcell: 50 (50)
Rameau: 50 (50)
Rodrigo: 30 (30)
Rossini: 50 (60)
Saint-Saëns: 60 (70)
Scarlatti, D: 40 (50)
Schnittke: 40 (30)
Scriabin: 60 (60)
Smetana: 50 (40)
Walton: 40 (40)
Weber: 40 (40)
Webern: 50 (60)
Xenakis: 30 (30)


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## Pugg (Aug 8, 2014)

Albéniz - 60%
Bach, CPE- 60%
Barber- 40%
Berg- 40%
Bizet- 70%
Britten-50 %
Copland-50%
Donizetti-70%
Dutilleux- 40%
Fauré-80%
Feldman-20%
Glass- 40%
Holst- 70%
Ives- 60%
Janáček-60%
Josquin- 70% 
Ligeti-50 %
Lully- 40 %
Monteverdi -80 %
Nielsen-40 %
Palestrina-40 %
Puccini-80 %
Purcell- 60 %
Rameau- 50 %
Rodrigo- 50%
Rossini- 70 %
Saint-Saëns- 80 %
Scarlatti, D- 80 %
Schnittke- 40 %
Scriabin- 40 %
Smetana-50%
Walton- 30%
Weber- 60 %
Webern-40 %
Xenakis- 20%

Sorry Nereffid, I forgot this completely.


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## Nereffid (Feb 6, 2013)

So we're about halfway through - 17 of the 35 composers have featured (not counting the most recent poll, which at time of writing only has 11 votes).

And the winner so far is... me! 
I think it's reasonable to say I have an unfair advantage because I have all the stats in front of me. Anyway, I've predicted 9 out of 17.

But of the _actual_ contestants, 3 of you have made 5 correct predictions: Art Rock, musicrom and Pugg. Casebearer has 4 right, and Kjetil Heggelund has, uh, 2.
Here's something interesting: I averaged your 5 predictions for each composer, and the _average_ has been correct 6 times!


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## Casebearer (Jan 19, 2016)

Well, I was the first one to try and all subsequent participants had an advantage over the previous ones. So I think Art Rock has won (so far) because he was second in row to try and had 5 right.


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## Pugg (Aug 8, 2014)

Nereffid said:


> So we're about halfway through - 17 of the 35 composers have featured (not counting the most recent poll, which at time of writing only has 11 votes).
> 
> And the winner so far is... me!
> I think it's reasonable to say I have an unfair advantage because I have all the stats in front of me. Anyway, I've predicted 9 out of 17.
> ...


We do keep you buzzy, well as long as you don't mind, I like your polls.


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