# What is "predictability" in music?



## Fabulin (Jun 10, 2019)

I've seen this expression being used multiple times now, but I am not sure if I understand. 

What is predictability in music to you, and how do you know what is going to happen?


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## progmatist (Apr 3, 2021)

The most common form of predictability would be expecting and hearing the music go from the tonic chord to the subdominant, or dominant chord.


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## annaw (May 4, 2019)

I also feel it can be used to describe some Classical and Baroque pieces, particularly, which either have a rigid musical form (you can intuitively predict that a certain section will definitely repeat multiple times - the form makes it inevitably “predictable”) or which utilise some cliché chord progressions. Of course, Romantic and Modern pieces can be predictable as well, but Classical and Baroque pieces tend to be more prone to that due to a more strict musical form. Not necessarily a bad quality, though - just a characteristic.


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## EdwardBast (Nov 25, 2013)

Four-square double-period structures used by Classical Era composers can be extremely predictable. Often after one phrase one can pretty much anticipate the next 30 seconds of music. Crescendos by Romantic composers with ascending modulations and phrases cut in half and half again are annoyingly predictable. Composers prone to excessive melodic sequencing get tiresome quickly because you can always smell what's coming.


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## larold (Jul 20, 2017)

Repeats more than anything else and in development varying the exposition theme(s) in the dominant then returning to the tonic.


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## regenmusic (Oct 23, 2014)

I was just discussing this topic in a thread in the Non Classical area. I think it shows the topic of predictability well.

Someone said how they did not like jazz. I was saying how I was glad that I never learned to play early on by learning all the types of chords and chord progressions of the popular songs, but just had basic classical lessons and had to come up with my own chords, chord changes, and modes. While learning to play all the different chords, modes and then the chord progressions that the popular songs and standards use helps you create beautiful music, it is always more predictable than someone who is trying to just pick things out on their own.

So I think non-predictable music is music that starts from a more basic freedom than these chord progressions, styles, patterns, and stuff that is taught in the imitative way. It would be an interesting study of composers to know about when they learned to compose their own music, or had their own dreams of creativity, and how far along were they in studying music theory and what patterns were present in the music they were playing. 

When did they even start teaching "modes" as we know them today?


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## Fabulin (Jun 10, 2019)

EdwardBast said:


> Composers prone to excessive melodic sequencing get tiresome quickly because you can always smell what's coming.


Could you give an example of that last one? I am not sure if I follow.


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## jkl (May 4, 2021)

Minimalism shows predictability with the repetition. It can be nice.


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## EdwardBast (Nov 25, 2013)

Fabulin said:


> Could you give an example of that last one? I am not sure if I follow.


By melodic sequencing I mean repeating the same pattern on different scale degrees or in a series of keys.

Examples:

Bruckner symphony 8.. Start at 4:23 and there are several offenses in a row:






This symphony by Richter has numerous examples. At :39 it repeats the same ascending idea four times in a row:


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## hammeredklavier (Feb 18, 2018)




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## SanAntone (May 10, 2020)

Predictability in music is when you hear the music progressing and you expect it to continue in a fashion, and your expectations are met. No unexpected surprises. Which translates into boredom as the music continues.


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## hammeredklavier (Feb 18, 2018)

annaw said:


> Classical and Baroque pieces tend to be more prone to that due to a more strict musical form. Not necessarily a bad quality, though - just a characteristic.


Yes, in certain ways, it was seen as more like a "virtue" in those times. Similar to how the Dying Gaul can be seen as "predictable" art compared to a Picasso work.
https://www.npr.org/sections/decept.../148769794/why-i-hate-the-goldberg-variations
_"The piece is eighty minutes long, and mostly in G major."
"Not only is it G major, but it is always, (nauseatingly?) the same sequence of harmonies within G major."_


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## SONNET CLV (May 31, 2014)

*What is "predictability" in music?*

John Cage's stuff. Predictably it will be aleatory in nature, in some way or another.


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## mikeh375 (Sep 7, 2017)

Rhythm is a major contributor to predictability. It is also a unifier of course.


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## Ariasexta (Jul 3, 2010)

Historical patterns, like similarity in styles between different composers of the same period, some might consider older music sound similar and predictable just because they know more about the history of music, this is just arrogance.


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## premont (May 7, 2015)

SONNET CLV said:


> *What is "predictability" in music?*
> 
> John Cage's stuff. Predictably it will be aleatory in nature, in some way or another.


4'33'' is a good example of this. The most aleatory piece of "music" ever written.


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## consuono (Mar 27, 2020)

SONNET CLV said:


> *What is "predictability" in music?*
> 
> John Cage's stuff. Predictably it will be aleatory in nature, in some way or another.


Ironic, isn't it?


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## Heck148 (Oct 27, 2016)

With tonal music, predictability is an inherent trait...the melodic and harmonic content is always going to be headed "home"...ie tonic. The composer will establish the tonic, then venture off into all sorts of different keys, modulations, etc, but you know it's coming back home to the tonic..
So, predictability is very similar to that in a sports event- the team is going to get the ball and move down the field and score points...the runners on base are going to advance around the baseball diamond and score runs by reaching home plate...
As with music, it is the events of that journey which make it memorable, even tho it is "predictable".


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## Bruckner Anton (Mar 10, 2016)

Cliche-heavy melody line or harmonic progression. Some are overused in music such as pop songs and video game BGM.


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## Enthusiast (Mar 5, 2016)

When you know a piece really well, and have perhaps listened to the same recording so many times, it will have become very predictable. But it may still excite and reward you (at least some music does for me even though I know every note). So predictability does not have to equate to boring. It often does, though, especially if it is predictable on first hearing.


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## fbjim (Mar 8, 2021)

What's the difference between predictability and good dramatic timing? i.e. a piece or passage ending "exactly when it should end"?


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## consuono (Mar 27, 2020)

I think there's also a difference between predictability and a sense of inevitability...the feeling after the fact that this or that could only have been composed and worked out in the way that it was. That could probably also be mislabeled as being "predictable" when it's a little too easy to say so.


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## premont (May 7, 2015)

consuono said:


> I think there's also a difference between predictability and *a sense of inevitability...the feeling after the fact that this or that could only have been composed and worked out in the way that it was*. That could probably also be mislabeled as being "predictable" when it's a little too easy to say so.


Yes, and it will always be a retrospective conclusion, which means that it wasn't predictable in the strictetst sense.


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## hammeredklavier (Feb 18, 2018)

consuono said:


> I think there's also a difference between predictability and a sense of inevitability...the feeling after the fact that this or that could only have been composed and worked out in the way that it was. That could probably also be mislabeled as being "predictable" when it's a little too easy to say so.


7:30









The ending of Grosse fuge (where all the tension resolves) is some of the most sincerely emotional music ever written for the string quartet imv.


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## progmatist (Apr 3, 2021)

jkl said:


> Minimalism shows predictability with the repetition. It can be nice.


Repetition is what creates form. Music without repetition is utterly without form.


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## Eclectic Al (Apr 23, 2020)

Music is interesting because expectations are confounded.
Expectations only arise because music is predictable to some extent.
The balance between predictability and the confounding of expectations is where the magic happens.
Music which is not predictable in any way generates no expectations to confound, and is boring.


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## fluteman (Dec 7, 2015)

EdwardBast said:


> Four-square double-period structures used by Classical Era composers can be extremely predictable. Often after one phrase one can pretty much anticipate the next 30 seconds of music. Crescendos by Romantic composers with ascending modulations and phrases cut in half and half again are annoyingly predictable. Composers prone to excessive melodic sequencing get tiresome quickly because you can always smell what's coming.


On the other hand, Haydn used numerous ingenious and subtle ways to confound conventional classical formulas and expectations, in his string quartets, for example. Of course, that only works if the music fundamentally conforms to those conventions.


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## pianozach (May 21, 2018)

Predictability in music is precisely why I am able to sightread music so well.

Unpredictable music is far more difficult to sightread.


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## Portamento (Dec 8, 2016)

SONNET CLV said:


> John Cage's stuff. Predictably it will be aleatory in nature, in some way or another.


That's like saying Brahms' 1st movements will predictably be in sonata form, in some way or another. Both statements are silly for obvious reasons.

You know what, nevermind...


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## consuono (Mar 27, 2020)

Portamento said:


> That's like saying Brahms' 1st movements will predictably be in sonata form, in some way or another. Both statements are silly for obvious reasons.
> 
> You know what, nevermind...


I take it you're not familiar with the term "tongue in cheek". Fans of modern music can be so drearily serious and defensive...


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## Portamento (Dec 8, 2016)

consuono said:


> I take it you're not familiar with the term "tongue in cheek". Fans of modern music can be so drearily serious and defensive...


I like tongue in cheek, but if you're gonna make yet another Cage joke it better be good. Presenting a TC member with a Cage joke is like bringing an NYer to a cheesecake shop, or a Mexican person to a taco truck, or... you get the idea. Sorry to say, I found SONNET CLV's joke so unfunny (no offense) that I took it to be serious. And I'm not even the biggest Cage fan.


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## consuono (Mar 27, 2020)

Portamento said:


> I like tongue in cheek, but if you're gonna make yet another Cage joke it better be good. Presenting a TC member with a Cage joke is like bringing an NYer to a cheesecake shop, or a Mexican person to a taco truck, or... you get the idea.


Uh................huh?


> Sorry to say, I found SONNET CLV's joke so unfunny (no offense) that I took it to be serious. And I'm not even the biggest Cage fan.


The fact you felt that way is funny enough to me.


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## fluteman (Dec 7, 2015)

Portamento said:


> I like tongue in cheek, but if you're gonna make yet another Cage joke it better be good. Presenting a TC member with a Cage joke is like bringing an NYer to a cheesecake shop, or a Mexican person to a taco truck, or... you get the idea. Sorry to say, I found SONNET CLV's joke so unfunny (no offense) that I took it to be serious. And I'm not even the biggest Cage fan.


Right. I posted my best efforts here a long time ago, and departed the arena. Cage himself had a sense of humor (very much so) and vastly preferred laughter to hostility as a response to his work. It would have been nice to see him work the Hoffnung / PDQ Bach vein, but he was the quiet, introverted sort, and though not shy or afraid of appearing or performing in public, did so only occasionally. He did extricate himself from poverty by using his prodigious knowledge of mushrooms on a game show. Anyone capable of feats like that has outdone any jokes I could think of.


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## Amadea (Apr 15, 2021)

"Predictability" can mean a lot of different things depending on who you are talking with. I think "predictable" is usually used in general to describe music that uses more clichès, which every era and almost every composer has in my humble unexpert opinion. Or also predictable meaning use of common simple harmony maybe? But I believe in the case of average listeners with no expertise, they perceive predictability in terms of rhythms and drama/mood change in the music. I mean: if there are particular rhythms and the music is dramatic or there is a sudden and lasting change in the mood, then the average unexpert listener is more inclined to perceive the music as unpredictable I believe (and it is even perceived as more complex). I think predictable to some people can also mean "simple" or "perceived simplicity". Maybe that's why some listeners think Mozart is "predictable"? For the perceived simplicity? And they think Beethoven is not?


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## MarkW (Feb 16, 2015)

On a micro-scale, two 20th c composers nearly box the compass. Stravinsky is rhythmically unpredictable -- to the extent you can almost always identify his music by the characteristic tricky rhythms. Prokofiev is harmonically tricky because almost any phrase has a completely unexpected, yet wholly characteristic interval somewhere.


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## ArtMusic (Jan 5, 2013)

Probably Minimalism which is the _raison d'etre _ on this as it tires to focus the listener on what it is already saying at the start. Otherwise there is nothing much else in classical music that strikes me as deliberately predictable.


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## hammeredklavier (Feb 18, 2018)




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## Azol (Jan 25, 2015)

Predictable means comfortable for some people, so predictability isn't necessarily a negative trait. I prefer background music to be quite predictable, for example.


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## hammeredklavier (Feb 18, 2018)

EdwardBast said:


> By melodic sequencing I mean repeating the same pattern on different scale degrees or in a series of keys.
> Examples:
> Bruckner symphony 8.. Start at 4:23 and there are several offenses in a row:
> 
> ...


But you can get away with doing stuff like that as long as it "sounds good" (based on subjective judgement), right? (Beethoven 6th symphony 1st movement, baroque figuration preludes ex. C major from Bach's WTC book 1)


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