# COVID19 vaccine announcement is promising news



## Roger Knox

The announcement today by Pfizer of their vaccine having a 90% success rate is good news indeed. There are more steps till it becomes available but according to Dr. Anthony Fauci in interview with Wolf Blitzer on CNN, it could be in use before the end of 2020. Because I know little about vaccines I'll stop here, except to say that the potential for saving of lives is breathtaking.


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## SixFootScowl

Roger Knox said:


> The announcement today by Pfizer of their vaccine having a 90% success rate is good news indeed. There are more steps till it becomes available but according to Dr. Anthony Fauci in interview with Wolf Blitzer on CNN, it could be in use before the end of 2020. Because I know little about vaccines I'll stop here, except to say that the potential for saving of lives is breathtaking.


If you know little about vaccines, how do you conclude that the potential for saving lives is breathtaking? Perhaps you meant the "presumed" potential?


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## tdc

Vaccine manufacturers are the kind of companies that will release drugs they know are harmful if they calculate that the profits will be greater than the pay outs they must make in lawsuits. This is documented to have happened on multiple occasions. 

Now that it is no longer legal to sue vaccine manufacturers for health damages (because they had to pay out so many billions of dollars they were going bankrupt so they used their vast wealth to lobby the government to give them protection) they have no incentive whatsoever to create a safe product. They do have incentive to create a product that will make you sick, because this ultimately leads to more profits for them.


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## annaw

^ Can you bring any specific examples of such vaccines developed in the US or Europe, which were knowingly undertested? I recall that Pandremix increased the likelihood of developing narcolepsy but it was a huge scandal and certainly not something that was overly profitable. A vaccine causing a huge number of severe side-effects would not be profitable because it simply wouldn't be used and the work and clinical trials are controlled and regulated very strictly. That's what FDA and the lot are for. Sure, there can be severe side effects but they are usually very rare. Bioethics are very strictly controlled and that's the reason why developing a vaccine that is meant for a very wide usage takes years. Even if the possibility to develop a severe side effect is 0.1%, it would mean that 1000 out of 1 000 000 would experience that. 1 000 000 vaccinations itself is a severe understatement when we talk about the potential number of people who would get a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. That's the reason why the likelihood to develop side-effects is minimised. Also, a vaccine developed in the US or Europe, where the development seems to have been very well controlled, will probably put into danger significantly less people than the virus itself. If we don't trust that industry, why do we trust any other medical industries?

Here's a Nature News and Comments article about the vaccine as well: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41...SyqyDHBf0nxJnE-X5tOA4YssucO1Z7p0vL6fZousF1qHs


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## Guest

I'm hoping everybody else has the vaccine so I don't have to!! I have had recent vaccinations for pneumonia, shingles, influenza (yearly) and tetanus. 

The stock market powered here today and yesterday in the USA, only tailing off in the last hour or so. After a long time in the doldrums, it is responding to every bit of news about Covid-19. Not all boats are rising together; some laggards stubbornly refuse to move!! Each little announcement sees the market respond like a highly strung child.


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## Guest

The bottom line is that the vaccine has only been under test for a few months. They only have information about the short term effectiveness and safety of the vaccine. When they say they will give the vaccine candidate to hundreds of millions of people they are, in effect, announcing the largest vaccine trial in history. The vaccine might work, it might wear off in a few months, it might kill people.

This is not a traditional vaccine, it is an mRNA vaccine. It depends on the vaccine recipient to manufacturer the actual vaccine in his or her cells. It seems to me the potential for problems is greater than for a traditional vaccine.

I'm not inclined to get it until it has been around for a few years.


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## annaw

Baron Scarpia said:


> The bottom line is that the vaccine has only been under test for a few months. They only have information about the short term effectiveness and safety of the vaccine. When they say they will give the vaccine candidate to hundreds of millions of people they are, in effect, announcing the largest vaccine trial in history. The vaccine might work, it might wear off in a few months, it might kill people.
> 
> This is not a traditional vaccine, it is an mRNA vaccine. It depends on the vaccine recipient to manufacturer the actual vaccine in his or her cells. It seems to me the potential for problems is greater than for a traditional vaccine.
> 
> I'm not inclined to get it until it has been around for a few years.


In fact, safety is considered to be one of the advantages of mRNA vaccines:

_First, safety: as mRNA is a non-infectious, non-integrating platform, there is no potential risk of infection or insertional mutagenesis. Additionally, mRNA is degraded by normal cellular processes, and its in vivo half-life can be regulated through the use of various modifications and delivery method. The inherent immunogenicity of the mRNA can be down-modulated to further increase the safety profile._ - Nature

But of course, I think we'll know more once the trials are over. mRNA vaccines are very elegant and intriguing, I must say .


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## Guest

annaw said:


> In fact, safety is considered to be one of the advantages of mRNA vaccines:
> 
> _First, safety: as mRNA is a non-infectious, non-integrating platform, there is no potential risk of infection or insertional mutagenesis. Additionally, mRNA is degraded by normal cellular processes, and its in vivo half-life can be regulated through the use of various modifications and delivery method. The inherent immunogenicity of the mRNA can be down-modulated to further increase the safety profile._ - Nature
> 
> But of course, I think we'll know more once the trials are over. mRNA vaccines are very elegant and intriguing, I must say .


It is believed to be safe. It could do something that they didn't design it to do, especially if they give it to hundreds of millions of people. Early attempts at gene therapy tended to kill the patient because the genetic sequence that was supposed to incorporated in one place went somewhere else.

Maybe it will work just fine. It might be wise to effectively enroll the entire world population in a vaccine trial, given the nature of the threat.

I think the most likely failure mode is that the immunity it confers is short lived. We'll find out in a few years.

As a cautionary tale, there Robert Redfield, the current director of the CDC. He was behind an HIV vaccine that supposedly showed promising early results, but which was eventually found to be ineffective. Things often go that way in biomedical research.


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## Caroline

I wanted to mention a few things - and point to an article I found on Forbes. I looked into this - and I am somewhat flummoxed by this vaccine at several levels. It was interesting enough to post -so this is a little long...

'Immunity' may be short-lived - it has been said by some that vaccines may be needed a few times a year. Apparently like the 'seasonal' flu, this mutates. The regular flu vaccine is annual and has a low efficacy rate. From the CDC website:









As has been already mentioned here - _vaccines are big profits for drug companies, investors and the government_ (the FDA, for example, gets paid by the drug maker to fast-track a drug). Congress also benefits. Each drug company as at least 6 lobbyists to each member of congress and senator. In the 1980s the government protected pharma companies from lawsuits from people who had been injured or killed by vaccines. The govt did create National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program - where it is in actuality very difficult for people to find financial compensation. So, drug companies cannot be sued. Vaccines are a big business and makers have no accountability when people get hurt.

Moderna - which has been working with Pfizer - may provide the delivery system utilizes mRNA, as others have mentioned. This is kind of creepy as an injectable delivered using mRNA alters the existing genome. The federal government (all of us) paid moderna about $1B for this.

From the article, "For a decade, _Moderna has been working to develop mRNA technology that could turn the body's cells into drug factories_. In order for the approach to work, Moderna needs to safely deliver the mRNA to the body's cells without the payload breaking down in the bloodstream. As a result, any mRNA vaccine or therapeutic consists of two components, the actual sequence mRNA and the delivery mechanism. Moderna has clearly engineered the first component, but there remain questions about the second. _No mRNA vaccine or medicine has ever been approved by U.S. or European regulators." _

The article in Forbes focuses mostly on intellectual property. 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathan...irus-vaccine-delivery-system/?sh=7206d53762d9

Also puzzling is that there has not been one for SARs or MERS or TB. Speaking of TB, some bright person asked why we haven't been wearing masks for TB and there are well over 1M cases a year.

That we are on the verge of a vaccine in only a few months (when vaccines take years to develop and test - and may or may not be effective or safe). I was curious to see how long some vaccines took to develop to get perspective.
From Business Insider (link below) is an excerpt about smallpox:

Smallpox: "In 1935, a vaccination was attempted, first on monkeys and then on children in California. Though this vaccine yielded poor results, two more decades of research paved the way for the development of vaccines by Jonas Salk in 1953, and Albert Sabin in 1956.

After a trial of more than 1.6 million children, Salk's vaccine was adopted in the US by 1955."

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-it-took-to-develop-other-vaccines-in-history-2020-7?op=1


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## CnC Bartok

It is very hopeful news, and the reaction of various stock exchanges over the past 24 hours suggests I am not the only person to be optimistic!

The generic risks and shortcomings of these types of vaccine are known, but the specifics for this one will/might take time, something we do not have the luxury of having, so - and ignoring the knee-jerk response that the pharmaceuticals are only in this for the money, a certain amount of uncertainty will remain even when it's been rolled out. There are other possible vaccines not far behind, and I hope the various developers will continue to share resources, as they have been, hopefully even more so?

Unfortunately the biggest risk is the attitude "yay, there's a vaccine, we're saved" and drop our guard right as we head towards Winter and the worst of the second wave. In the meantime, wearing a mask is not that much of a hardship, and it is proven to minimise the spread of the virus.


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## Guest

Caroline said:


> Also puzzling is that there has not been one for SARs or MERS or TB. Speaking of TB, some bright person asked why we haven't been wearing masks for TB and there are well over 1M cases a year.


TB isn't a great comparison, since it is a bacteria rather than a virus and can be cured with antibiotics (which can be difficult for drug related strains). Covid-19 is much more contagious than TB. As far as SARS and MERS, they were working on vaccines, but the outbreaks were totally contained before vaccines were ready for testing.


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## Caroline

Baron Scarpia said:


> TB isn't a great comparison, since it is a bacteria rather than a virus and can be cured with antibiotics (which can be difficult for drug related strains). Covid-19 is much more contagious than TB. As far as SARS and MERS, they were working on vaccines, but the outbreaks were totally contained before vaccines were ready for testing.


As the emergency of SARS waned - the funding dried up. TB, while a bacteria, is highly contagious - I don't know if it is less so than covid-19. TB can incubate for 2-12 weeks so one can unknowingly affect a lot of people.

Should clarify worldwide rates for TB - there are 1.5M deaths annually and about 11M cases.


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## Jacck

Caroline said:


> As the emergency of SARS waned - the funding dried up. TB, while a bacteria, is highly contagious - I don't know if it is less so than covid-19. TB can incubate for 2-12 weeks so one can unknowingly affect a lot of people.
> 
> Should clarify worldwide rates for TB - there are 1.5M deaths annually and about 11M cases.


many countries still vaccinate against TB


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## wkasimer

tdc said:


> Vaccine manufacturers are the kind of companies that will release drugs they know are harmful if they calculate that the profits will be greater than the pay outs they must make in lawsuits. This is documented to have happened on multiple occasions.


If there are such documented cases, please provide that documentation here.


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## annaw

Caroline said:


> I wanted to mention a few things - and point to an article I found on Forbes. I looked into this - and I am somewhat flummoxed by this vaccine at several levels. It was interesting enough to post -so this is a little long...
> 
> 'Immunity' may be short-lived - it has been said by some that vaccines may be needed a few times a year. Apparently like the 'seasonal' flu, this mutates. The regular flu vaccine is annual and has a low efficacy rate. From the CDC website:
> 
> View attachment 145641


Your body's natural immunity might be short lived as well, even if you get a real infection. That's a matter of concern with coronavirus in general.



> As has been already mentioned here - _vaccines are big profits for drug companies, investors and the government_ (the FDA, for example, gets paid by the drug maker to fast-track a drug). Congress also benefits. Each drug company as at least 6 lobbyists to each member of congress and senator. In the 1980s the government protected pharma companies from lawsuits from people who had been injured or killed by vaccines. The govt did create National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program - where it is in actuality very difficult for people to find financial compensation. So, drug companies cannot be sued. Vaccines are a big business and makers have no accountability when people get hurt.


This vaccine is such a global thing that I doubt it's controlled by only the US. Our healthcare systems in Europe are rather advanced as well and the vaccine in question has been developed in collaboration with Germans. Countries won't just blindly accept whatever vaccine is developed.



> Moderna - which has been working with Pfizer - may provide the delivery system utilizes mRNA, as others have mentioned. This is kind of creepy as an injectable delivered using mRNA alters the existing genome. The federal government (all of us) paid moderna about $1B for this.
> 
> From the article, "For a decade, _Moderna has been working to develop mRNA technology that could turn the body's cells into drug factories_. In order for the approach to work, Moderna needs to safely deliver the mRNA to the body's cells without the payload breaking down in the bloodstream. As a result, any mRNA vaccine or therapeutic consists of two components, the actual sequence mRNA and the delivery mechanism. Moderna has clearly engineered the first component, but there remain questions about the second. _No mRNA vaccine or medicine has ever been approved by U.S. or European regulators." _
> 
> That we are on the verge of a vaccine in only a few months (when vaccines take years to develop and test - and may or may not be effective or safe). I was curious to see how long some vaccines took to develop to get perspective.
> From Business Insider (link below) is an excerpt about smallpox:
> 
> Smallpox: "In 1935, a vaccination was attempted, first on monkeys and then on children in California. Though this vaccine yielded poor results, two more decades of research paved the way for the development of vaccines by Jonas Salk in 1953, and Albert Sabin in 1956.
> 
> After a trial of more than 1.6 million children, Salk's vaccine was adopted in the US by 1955."
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-it-took-to-develop-other-vaccines-in-history-2020-7?op=1





annaw said:


> In fact, safety is considered to be one of the advantages of mRNA vaccines:
> 
> _First, safety: as mRNA is a non-infectious, non-integrating platform, there is no potential risk of infection or insertional mutagenesis. Additionally, mRNA is degraded by normal cellular processes, and its in vivo half-life can be regulated through the use of various modifications and delivery method. The inherent immunogenicity of the mRNA can be down-modulated to further increase the safety profile._ - Nature
> 
> But of course, I think we'll know more once the trials are over. mRNA vaccines are very elegant and intriguing, I must say .


Read the article I quote in my earlier response. *mRNA is not added to human genome. That's not how mRNA works. Human cells have no reverse transcriptase that could produce DNA from mRNA - that's possible for retroviruses, such as HIV, but not for humans.* As in the article I cited: "there is no potential risk of infection or *insertional mutagenesis*" - that's exactly what the sentence means. The mRNA vaccines have been around for only a few years and the fact that none of them have been accepted only proves that our healthcare systems and bioethics are controlled. Think how many people have died because of COVID-19 - young children, also healthy teenagers and adults, mothers, fathers, grandparents, wives, husbands - we don't have 20 years to wait and our methods are a lot more advanced than in the mid-20th century. When the pandemic started, Italians didn't even have time to bury their close people because so many had died.

I just believe that the harm the virus has done is significantly greater than the harm a vaccine, produced through strictly controlled process, could possibly do.

I don't wish to start an argument or anything. It simply needed to be said that while mRNA might sound somewhat "dangerous" it's actually thought to be less dangerous, at least in some respects, exactly for the reason that it cannot get randomly included in your genome because your own cells don't have the means for that.


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## Jacck

annaw said:


> Your body's natural immunity might be short lived as well, even if you get a real infection. That's a matter of concern with coronavirus in general.


I am not sure what you mean by natural immunity. Nonspecific immunity? It is not short lived, you have it your whole life. What might be short lived is the humoral immunity (antibodies). It lasts just half a year or so with the other coronaviruses (SARS, MERS etc). But there is also the specific cellular immunity through the Th-lymfocytes (memory T-cells) and those can survive much longer. So even if your antibodies disappear after 6 months, the memory T-cells last for years and they stimulate the B-cells to produce the antibodies much faster and in higher quantities the second time. And we dont know that much about the cellular immunity with this new coronavirus, but the preliminary findings are actually quite good
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...ths-after-covid-19-infection/?sh=742c98303c8d

my own prediction concerning the coronavirus is that it is going to stay with us, most of us will ultimately catch it, and we will develop some partial immunity to it (through the T-cells immunity). It will become seasonal, come in the autumn and winter, just like the common cold, and most people will survive it, it will become adapted, the CFR is going to be much lower.


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## annaw

Jacck said:


> I am not sure what you mean by natural immunity. Nonspecific immunity? It is not short lived, you have it your whole life. What might be short lived is the humoral immunity (antibodies). It lasts just half a year or so with the other coronaviruses (SARS, MERS etc). But there is also the specific cellular immunity through the Th-lymfocytes (memory T-cells) and those can survive much longer. So even if your antibodies disappear after 6 months, the memory T-cells last for years and they stimulate the B-cells to produce the antibodies much faster and in higher quantities the second time. And we dont know that much about the cellular immunity with this new coronavirus, but the preliminary findings are actually quite good
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...ths-after-covid-19-infection/?sh=742c98303c8d
> 
> my own prediction concerning the coronavirus is that it is going to stay with us, most of us will ultimately catch it, and we will develop some partial immunity to it (through the T-cells immunity). It will become seasonal, come in the autumn and winter, just like the common cold, and most people will survive it, it will become adapted, the CFR is going to be much lower.


I know that well but it's a fact that there have been reinfections and still in a Nature article in August it was said that too little is known about the memory response. It's not universally similar for all viruses. The early studies focused on the antibody response, neutralising antibodies as people tried to understand what is even going on, what are the dynamics, how quickly different antibodies come up, etc. Finding biomarkers in the form of blood proteins or other trends has been an important area of research as well.

This is from the article:

_Although spike-specific CD4+ T cells are found in patients with COVID-19, 30-50% of healthy people with no detectable COVID-19 infection also had SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cells and 20% had CD8+ cytotoxic T cells7. These T cells are probably cross-reactive with other HCoVs, but whether they can provide protection from COVID-19 disease remains to be determined._

As the article points out, SARS-CoV-2 exhausts your immune cell populations and reduces their prolific capacity. Also, no long-term B-cell immunity was developed after SARS-CoV-1. And as a virus, this thingy can mutate fast! So, questions about cross-reactivity etc will probably arise as well. But I haven't really read much about the memory T- or B-cell response against coronavirus yet, so I'll have to look into it. It's an interesting topic!

You may correct me anywhere I'm wrong .


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## Jacck

annaw said:


> I know that well but it's a fact that there have been reinfections and still in a Nature article in August it was said that too little is known about the memory response. It's not universally similar for all viruses. The early studies focused on the antibody response, neutralising antibodies as people tried to understand what is even going on, what are the dynamics, how quickly different antibodies come up, etc. Finding biomarkers in the form of blood proteins or other trends has been an important area of research as well.
> 
> This is from the article:
> 
> _Although spike-specific CD4+ T cells are found in patients with COVID-19, 30-50% of healthy people with no detectable COVID-19 infection also had SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cells and 20% had CD8+ cytotoxic T cells7. These T cells are probably cross-reactive with other HCoVs, but whether they can provide protection from COVID-19 disease remains to be determined._
> 
> As the article points out, SARS-CoV-2 exhausts your immune cell populations and reduces their prolific capacity. Also, no long-term B-cell immunity was developed after SARS-CoV-1.


I believe this cross-reactivity might be the reason, why many people have asymptomatic or mild course of the disease. I also believe that the severity of the disease is dose depedent (if you inhale many of the virus particles, you will get more sick). So mask wearing might actually be important, because it reduces the amount of virus particles you inhale, which might serve as attenuated live vaccination. That might be the reason, why the CFR was much higher at the beginning than it is now. And it will likely go down further as more people get vaccinated through contact with the virus. This might have already happened in South Africa
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...erd-immunity-covid-cases-latest-b1400549.html


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## Guest

Baron Scarpia said:


> The bottom line is that the vaccine has only been under test for a few months. They only have information about the short term effectiveness and safety of the vaccine. When they say they will give the vaccine candidate to hundreds of millions of people they are, in effect, announcing the largest vaccine trial in history. The vaccine might work, it might wear off in a few months, it might kill people.
> 
> This is not a traditional vaccine, it is an mRNA vaccine. It depends on the vaccine recipient to manufacturer the actual vaccine in his or her cells. It seems to me the potential for problems is greater than for a traditional vaccine.
> 
> I'm not inclined to get it until it has been around for a few years.


I suspect you are right; people won't take it up until it has been around for a few years. I read that apparently the yearly flu vaccine is only 60% efficacious. If it is effective and if lots of people do opt for it (surely the seniors cohort) then this will reduce the extent of the virus in the community anyway. Yes?


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## annaw

Jacck said:


> I believe this cross-reactivity might be the reason, why many people have asymptomatic or mild course of the disease. I also believe that the severity of the disease is dose depedent (if you inhale many of the virus particles, you will get more sick). So mask wearing might actually be important, because it reduces the amount of virus particles you inhale, which might serve as attenuated live vaccination. That might be the reason, why the CFR was much higher at the beginning than it is now. And it will likely go down further as more people get vaccinated through contact with the virus. This might have already happened in South Africa
> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...erd-immunity-covid-cases-latest-b1400549.html


That's an intriguing idea as well.

Btw, I realised I began my last post in a wrong way. "I know that well" is a very wrong phrase to use when the discussion happens to be about immunology :lol:. Love that field but, oh, it's difficult!


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## Guest

annaw said:


> Read the article I quote in my earlier response. *mRNA is not added to human genome. That's not how mRNA works. Human cells have no reverse transcriptase that could produce DNA from mRNA - that's possible for retroviruses, such as HIV, but not for humans.* As in the article I cited: "there is no potential risk of infection or *insertional mutagenesis*" - that's exactly what the sentence means.


No, it's not _supposed_ to incorporate into the genome. Strange things can happen. Maybe someone gets the vaccine who has been infected with another virus and somehow the reverse transcriptase of that other virus latches on the the vaccine mRNA and incorporates into your genome, etc, etc, etc. The bottom line is that this will be the first mRNA vaccine every distributed and unexpected things can happen.


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## annaw

Baron Scarpia said:


> No, it's not _supposed_ to incorporate into the genome. Strange things can happen. Maybe someone gets the vaccine who has been infected with another virus and somehow the reverse transcriptase of that other virus latches on the the vaccine mRNA and incorporates into your genome, etc, etc, etc. The bottom line is that this will be the first mRNA vaccine every distributed and unexpected things can happen.


Unexpected things can surely happen but it would be VERY unexpected if a molecule of reverse transcriptase sneaked into your mRNA vaccine.


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## Jacck

Baron Scarpia said:


> No, it's not _supposed_ to incorporate into the genome. Strange things can happen. Maybe someone gets the vaccine who has been infected with another virus and somehow the reverse transcriptase of that other virus latches on the the vaccine mRNA and incorporates into your genome, etc, etc, etc. The bottom line is that this will be the first mRNA vaccine every distributed and unexpected things can happen.


so that is how the zombie apocalypse will begin


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## Guest

annaw said:


> Unexpected things can surely happen but I don't believe a molecule of reverse transcriptase could possibly sneak into you mRNA vaccine.


I'm not suggesting reverse transcriptase in the vaccine. I'm suggesting the mRNA finds its way into a human cell that is already infected with some other virus that latches on to the vaccine mRNA, or something else no one has thought of.


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## CnC Bartok

tdc said:


> Vaccine manufacturers are the kind of companies that will release drugs they know are harmful if they calculate that the profits will be greater than the pay outs they must make in lawsuits. This is documented to have happened on multiple occasions.
> 
> Now that it is no longer legal to sue vaccine manufacturers for health damages (because they had to pay out so many billions of dollars they were going bankrupt so they used their vast wealth to lobby the government to give them protection) they have no incentive whatsoever to create a safe product. They do have incentive to create a product that will make you sick, because this ultimately leads to more profits for them.


Sorry, but this is utter utter ballacks, and extremely unhelpful in the current climate.


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## tdc

wkasimer said:


> If there are such documented cases, please provide that documentation here.


Look into Merck and Vioxx, look into Bayer and HIV tainted blood clot medicine, look into some of the work of Robert Kennedy Jr. or Del Bigtree. They've exposed much more. Maybe you prefer getting your information from outlets that are sponsored by big pharma? Who do you think is sponsoring all the covid propaganda? Do some research into sources that don't have a conflict of interest.


CnC Bartok said:


> Sorry, but this is utter utter ballacks, and extremely unhelpful in the current climate.


It is vitally important now, I'm trying to actually help. You may want to get checked out for Stockholm Syndrome.


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## wkasimer

tdc said:


> Look into Merck and Vioxx, look into Bayer and HIV tainted blood clot medicine, look into some of the work of Robert Kennedy Jr. or Del Bigtree.


You believe these two people who still believe the "research" of Andrew Wakefield? Enough said.


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## Caroline

annaw said:


> This vaccine is such a global thing that I doubt it's controlled by only the US. Our healthcare systems in Europe are rather advanced as well and the vaccine in question has been developed in collaboration with Germans.
> 
> Read the article I quote in my earlier response. *mRNA is not added to human genome. That's not how mRNA works. Human cells have no reverse transcriptase that could produce DNA from mRNA - that's possible for retroviruses, such as HIV, but not for humans.* As in the article I cited: "there is no potential risk of infection or *insertional mutagenesis*" - that's exactly what the sentence means. The mRNA vaccines have been around for only a few years and the fact that none of them have been accepted only proves that our healthcare systems and bioethics are controlled.
> 
> I just believe that the harm the virus has done is significantly greater than the harm a vaccine, produced through strictly controlled process, could possibly do.
> 
> I don't wish to start an argument or anything. It simply needed to be said that while mRNA might sound somewhat "dangerous" it's actually thought to be less dangerous, at least in some respects, exactly for the reason that it cannot get randomly included in your genome because your own cells don't have the means for that.


True - the vaccine isn't changing the genome...exactly...or potentially...

"...mRNA vaccines provide instructions for cells to start producing the "spike" protein of the new coronavirus, the protein that helps the virus get into cells. On its own, the spike protein isn't (?) harmful. But it triggers the immune system to begin a defensive response. As Bill Gates, who has supported companies like Moderna and BioNTech through the Gates Foundation, has described it, "you essentially turn your body into its own manufacturing unit."

In July the US Government bought up 100M doses with the option for 500M more (cost $2B for the 100M doses). EU has ordered similarly. So, it seems like the vaccine will be widely available.

One (of many) oddities is how Pfizer can claim a 90% efficacy of their vaccine candidate. They will have 2 months of data collected - 44,000 participants. I suppose we have only to believe what we are told as there is no benchmark.


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## pianozach

Baron Scarpia said:


> It is believed to be safe. It could do something that they didn't design it to do, especially if they give it to hundreds of millions of people. Early attempts at gene therapy tended to kill the patient because the genetic sequence that was supposed to incorporated in one place went somewhere else.
> 
> Maybe it will work just fine. It might be wise to effectively enroll the entire world population in a vaccine trial, given the nature of the threat.
> 
> *I think the most likely failure mode is that the immunity it confers is short lived. We'll find out in a few years.*
> 
> As a cautionary tale, there Robert Redfield, the current director of the CDC. He was behind an HIV vaccine that supposedly showed promising early results, but which was eventually found to be ineffective. Things often go that way in biomedical research.


*One of the test subjects has already been re-infected. We may not have to wait years to find out the vaccine's longevity: we may know in just a few months.

*


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## pianozach

CnC Bartok said:


> It is very hopeful news, and the reaction of various stock exchanges over the past 24 hours suggests I am not the only person to be optimistic!
> 
> The generic risks and shortcomings of these types of vaccine are known, but the specifics for this one will/might take time, something we do not have the luxury of having, so - and ignoring the knee-jerk response that the pharmaceuticals are only in this for the money, a certain amount of uncertainty will remain even when it's been rolled out. There are other possible vaccines not far behind, and I hope the various developers will continue to share resources, as they have been, hopefully even more so?
> 
> Unfortunately the biggest risk is the attitude "yay, there's a vaccine, we're saved" and drop our guard right as we head towards Winter and the worst of *the second wave*. In the meantime, wearing a mask is not that much of a hardship, and it is proven to minimize the spread of the virus.


I'm looking at the graph of cases since the beginning of the year in the USA, and it appears, to me, that we have just entered the THIRD WAVE.

The failure of the public (on the whole) to adopt precautionary steps, such as wearing masks, and social distancing, is probably responsible for the US having a disastrous 2nd wave, and an upcoming disastrous 3rd wave. The failure of the public to "get on board" is likely due to the mixed messages from the White House, indeed, from the mockery of wearing masks, and the seriousness of the virus itself.


----------



## CnC Bartok

tdc said:


> It is vitally important now, I'm trying to actually help. You may want to get checked out for Stockholm Syndrome.


I'd get yourself checked out for paranoia!

While of course it is ridiculous to automatically assume every pharmaceutical company is operating purely for the benefit of Mankind, making the assumption - as you clearly have - that these "toxic evil faceless money-grabbing corporations" (or to most people "corporations") are there purely to make a fast buck and sod the collateral is both incorrect and significantly more harmful as far as I am concerned. The whole process of drug development is of course flawed, but it does tend to work (eventually!) even if the investment and material costs are enormous and there's no guarantee of success. If I invested money in such ventures (and I have) I would hope for some sort of dividend (not just literally) from the product my money as an investor has helped develop. It's called Capitalism, and when controlled by appropriate checks and balances, it's the best system we have, old chap, or at least the alternatives are too horrible to contemplate...


----------



## wkasimer

pianozach said:


> The failure of the public (on the whole) to adopt precautionary steps, such as wearing masks, and social distancing, is probably responsible for the US having a disastrous 2nd wave, and an upcoming disastrous 3rd wave. The failure of the public to "get on board" is likely due to the mixed messages from the White House, indeed, from the mockery of wearing masks, and the seriousness of the virus itself.


So how do you explain the fact that many other countries, particularly in Europe, have seen and are seeing similar trends? Is that Trump's fault, too?


----------



## annaw

Caroline said:


> True - the vaccine isn't changing the genome...exactly...or potentially...
> 
> "...mRNA vaccines provide instructions for cells to start producing the "spike" protein of the new coronavirus, the protein that helps the virus get into cells. On its own, the spike protein isn't (?) harmful. But it triggers the immune system to begin a defensive response. As Bill Gates, who has supported companies like Moderna and BioNTech through the Gates Foundation, has described it, "you essentially turn your body into its own manufacturing unit."
> 
> In July the US Government bought up 100M doses with the option for 500M more (cost $2B for the 100M doses). EU has ordered similarly. So, it seems like the vaccine will be widely available.
> 
> *One (of many) oddities is how Pfizer can claim a 90% efficacy of their vaccine candidate. They will have 2 months of data collected - 44,000 participants.* I suppose we have only to believe what we are told as there is no benchmark.


Again, in the Nature News article I cited earlier:

_Although the vaccine might not turn out to be quite so effective once the trial is complete and all the data have been analysed, its effectiveness is likely to stay well above 50%, says Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California. This is the threshold that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) says is required for a coronavirus vaccine to be approved for emergency use._

No one in the article is claiming that it will necessarily stay at 90% but it's simply good news from early trials. I mean, what alternative do we have? One of the scientist in the end of the article says quite well: "Right now, we need a vaccine that works," says Krammer, even if it works for only a few months or doesn't stop transmission. "That's what we need in order to get half-way back to normal."

What other choice do we have? It's especially a pressing problem in countries with many cases, like the US. In Estonia, schools are working, stores are open, and, as far as I know, even the entertainment section is open. Our biggest film festival just begun.... There has been lots of governmental work to control it and they've been rather successful. Similar regulations are probably a lot more difficult to create in big countries, who also tend to have a huge number of cases. Unless someone comes up with a super efficient medicine, vaccine seems to be by far the best way to control the virus. What is your alternative idea? The economy in countries with a severe pandemic would suffer even more if we just decided to wait.


----------



## Jacck

wkasimer said:


> So how do you explain the fact that many other countries, particularly in Europe, have seen and are seeing similar trends? Is that Trump's fault, too?


countries in Europe have also inept politicians and people are fatigued by the pandemic and reluctant to maintain the measures. Politics clearly does play a major role in containing the pandemic. 
https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june


----------



## CnC Bartok

Jacck said:


> countries in Europe have also inept politicians and people are fatigued by the pandemic and reluctant to maintain the measures. Politics clearly does play a major role in containing the pandemic.
> https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june


That's a great chart he's animated there.

That said, I am not really sure of the existence of a causal relationship. An individual's circumstances have an effect on how they vote, and will also have an effect on their exposure to the virus and thus their likelihood of catching it. I'm not sure "having a Republican in charge of your state means you are more likely to catch covid"!

Here in the UK, the South West has (so far) had it relatively easy. Down there they tended to vote for Brexit. Maybe the xenophobic bigoted gene provides some protection :devil:


----------



## Flamme

Since it is ''Pfizer'' I wonder are there additional effects to the drug...


----------



## wkasimer

Jacck said:


> countries in Europe have also inept politicians and people are fatigued by the pandemic and reluctant to maintain the measures. Politics clearly does play a major role in containing the pandemic.
> https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june


Interesting that the referenced chart starts the clock on June 1. I assume that this date was chosen to make a political point.

Perhaps a more important graph is this one, from the same page:

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/state-by-state-total-deaths-by-date


----------



## Bwv 1080

tdc said:


> Look into Merck and Vioxx, look into Bayer and HIV tainted blood clot medicine, look into some of the work of Robert Kennedy Jr. or Del Bigtree. They've exposed much more. Maybe you prefer getting your information from outlets that are sponsored by big pharma? Who do you think is sponsoring all the covid propaganda? Do some research into sources that don't have a conflict of interest.
> 
> It is vitally important now, I'm trying to actually help. You may want to get checked out for Stockholm Syndrome.


Really - RFK jr and Del Bigtree? Those frauds? Do you really think vaccines cause autism, despite the mountain of scientific evidence to the contrary? This peddling of pseudoscience has already resulted in too much illness and death, mods should place a ban on anti-vax quackery just like they would with holocaust denial or inciting racism


----------



## CnC Bartok

Bwv 1080 said:


> Really - RFK jr and Del Bigtree? Those frauds? Do you really think vaccines cause autism, despite the mountain of scientific evidence to the contrary? This peddling of pseudoscience has already resulted in too much illness and death, mods should place a ban on anti-vax quackery just like they would with holocaust denial or inciting racism


Sorry, we don't have Kennedy jnr and that Bigtree chap in the UK. Just looked them up.

What profoundly awful people.


----------



## Bwv 1080

CnC Bartok said:


> Sorry, we don't have Kennedy jnr and that Bigtree chap in the UK. Just looked them up.
> 
> What profoundly awful people.


well Andrew Wakefield more than makes up for it on your end, although he has found a home and a following in my home state


----------



## CnC Bartok

Bwv 1080 said:


> well Andrew Wakefield more than makes up for it on your end, although he has found a home and a following in my home state


Yeah, I remember him, all that rubbish about combined MMR jabs and autism. Can I say you're welcome to him, and if you're feeling charitable, we can always offer you David Icke as well!


----------



## Caroline

annaw said:


> Again, in the Nature News article I cited earlier:
> 
> _Although the vaccine might not turn out to be quite so effective once the trial is complete and all the data have been analysed, its effectiveness is likely to stay well above 50%, says Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California. This is the threshold that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) says is required for a coronavirus vaccine to be approved for emergency use._
> 
> No one in the article is claiming that it will necessarily stay at 90% but it's simply good news from early trials. I mean, what alternative do we have? One of the scientist in the end of the article says quite well: "Right now, we need a vaccine that works," says Krammer, even if it works for only a few months or doesn't stop transmission. "That's what we need in order to get half-way back to normal."
> 
> What other choice do we have? It's especially a pressing problem in countries with many cases, like the US. In Estonia, schools are working, stores are open, and, as far as I know, even the entertainment section is open. Our biggest film festival just begun.... There has been lots of governmental work to control it and they've been rather successful. Similar regulations are probably a lot more difficult to create in big countries, who also tend to have a huge number of cases. Unless someone comes up with a super efficient medicine, vaccine seems to be by far the best way to control the virus. What is your alternative idea? The economy in countries with a severe pandemic would suffer even more if we just decided to wait.


Check out the historical journalism on the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine, which was rushed through. It did more damage than good. 





People who want to take a vaccine, when it becomes available, should do so. I'm not sold on the idea of a vaccine.


----------



## Flamme

I guess its possible that some of the jabs in the past were ''spiced'' with different diseases on purpose or accidentally but is there an agenda behind it its hard to tell...Conspiracies are a deepest rabbit hole of the ''interwebs'' on par with porn..


----------



## SixFootScowl

Jacck said:


> countries in Europe have also inept politicians and people are fatigued by the pandemic and reluctant to maintain the measures. Politics clearly does play a major role in containing the pandemic.
> https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june


I tried to view that site but it is like a room full of cats on catnip. Things would not stop moving so I closed the tab.


----------



## NoCoPilot

pianozach said:


> I'm looking at the graph of cases since the beginning of the year in the USA, and it appears, to me, that we have just entered the THIRD WAVE.


To be perfectly accurate what we're in is a THIRD SURGE not a third wave, because we never brought the rate of new cases down to near zero. Early on, in this pandemic, everyone was talking "flattening the curve" so everyone didn't get sick all at once and overwhelm the healthcare system. Well, we've SLOWED the new infection rate a couple of times, and spread out the new infections over almost a year now, but with a "novel coronavirus" nobody has any immunity so it will continue to spread until either everybody's had it, or there's a vaccine. With 10 million cases now and a population of 331 million, that means 321 million more Americans have to get sick to fulfill the first scenario (the one favored by Dr. Scott Atlas and the current administration). With a 3% mortality rate that's almost ten million dead. Most scientists see that as morally unacceptable.


----------



## Flamme

Third surge of a First Wave??? I thought we were in second wave now, the media told us that 6 months ago...''In November there will be a second wave'' I clearly remember...Those scientists know less and less as time goes by...And symptoms grow from pneumonia to ''black fingers''?https://www.ejves.com/article/S1078-5884(20)30676-6/fulltext


----------



## pianozach

wkasimer said:


> So how do you explain the fact that many other countries, particularly in Europe, have seen and are seeing similar trends? Is that Trump's fault, too?


They aren't seeing similar trends in many other countries. By "similar", I'd be expecting a massive surge. There isn't.

France is having a small surge, and, to an even lesser extent, so is Italy. India had a rather nasty 2nd wave, but that was two months ago, and their cases have been decreasing since then.

It would be remiss of me to fail to mention President Trump's claims on our success in battling the pandemic. In March he claimed it was just one person, and that it would disappear soon. Instead we had a massive number of cases. In April he said it would disappear when the temperatures rise in the Summer. Instead we doubled the number of cases.

So, is the minor rise in cases in Italy and France Trump's fault? Of course not. Not directly.

But as the *US* goes, so goes *Europe*. In the US our White House administration has downplayed the pandemic, called it a hoax, mocked the wearing of masks, and pooh-poohed social distancing. The rest of the world notices what the US does, and partially follows suit. So, as the US has demonized precautionary measures, many people in Europe pick up on that. Not a direct line-of-sight correlation, but a secondary ripple effect nonetheless.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases


----------



## Flamme

The world is such a mess right now and then there is corona...When and how will it end...I begin to feel desperate...


----------



## Bwv 1080

pianozach said:


> They aren't seeing similar trends in many other countries. By "similar", I'd be expecting a massive surge. There isn't.
> 
> France is having a small surge, and, to an even lesser extent, so is Italy. India had a rather nasty 2nd wave, but that was two months ago, and their cases have been decreasing since then.
> 
> It would be remiss of me to fail to mention President Trump's claims on our success in battling the pandemic. In March he claimed it was just one person, and that it would disappear soon. Instead we had a massive number of cases. In April he said it would disappear when the temperatures rise in the Summer. Instead we doubled the number of cases.
> 
> So, is the minor rise in cases in Italy and France Trump's fault? Of course not. Not directly.
> 
> But as the *US* goes, so goes *Europe*. In the US our White House administration has downplayed the pandemic, called it a hoax, mocked the wearing of masks, and pooh-poohed social distancing. The rest of the world notices what the US does, and partially follows suit. So, as the US has demonized precautionary measures, many people in Europe pick up on that. Not a direct line-of-sight correlation, but a secondary ripple effect nonetheless.
> 
> https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases


Except that France is 2X the US after adjusting for population

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...ng=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc


----------



## KenOC

Bwv 1080 said:


> Except that France is 2X the US after adjusting for population
> 
> https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...ng=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc


Adjusted for population, the US COVID-19 death rate is lower than death rates in Belgium, Peru, Spain, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia. Plus San Marino and Andorra as well, if you want to include them!


----------



## NoCoPilot

Our healthcare system is better too.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> The world is such a mess right now and then there is corona...When and how will it end...I begin to feel desperate...


Don't worry; be happy. Life is for living, not fear. How do you think millions of people survived the horror of WW2 and the holocaust? Because they were RESILIENT.

I'm in the most vulnerable cohort; over 65 and a previous cancer patient. But I did laugh when Donald Trump said "corona sounds like an island in Italy". Both the spouse and myself laughed heartily.

You must also have a sense of humour to survive what life throws at you.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Don't worry; be happy. Life is for living, not fear. How do you think millions of people survived the horror of WW2 and the holocaust? Because they were RESILIENT.


Not to be a Debbie Downer, but few of the people who witnessed the Holocaust firsthand survived it. Not "millions" anyway. The true nature of it was largely hidden from the German people.

You want good news? COVID has a mortality rate of about 3%, not 20% (as in the 1918 influenza pandemic) or 85% (as in the 1346 bubonic plague).


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> Not to be a Debbie Downer, but few of the people who witnessed the Holocaust firsthand survived it. Not "millions" anyway. The true nature of it was largely hidden from the German people.
> 
> You want good news? COVID has a mortality rate of about 3%, not 20% (as in the 1918 influenza pandemic) or 85% (as in the 1346 bubonic plague).


You know very well I was lumping the Holocaust survivors with millions of WW2 victims/survivors.

I don't care about the statistics because I'm pragmatic enough to understand that life is fragile and we need to be prepared for anything and everything - with resilience. Frequent pandemics are 'nature's way' of dealing with tremendous population strains on this earth of ours.

Imagine what it was like for Bach; losing 9 children and 1 wife and still writing miraculous music!!!


----------



## Jacck

Pfizer chief sold $5.6m of shares on day of Covid vaccine announcement 
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-of-shares-on-day-covid-vaccine-was-announced

something is fishy


----------



## Jacck

Bwv 1080 said:


> Except that France is 2X the US after adjusting for population
> 
> https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...ng=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc


you can click Europe as a whole in the graph and Europe and the USA have currently almost the same amount of infections per million population. Some states in Europe (and some states in the US) have clearly worse outbreak than others. In my country, thanks to our dear prime minister, we had one of the worst outbreak in Europe (adjusted for million population), but we are already on a clear downward trajectory. I was actually surprised, how well our healthcare system coped with it. We had more cases per million than Italy and France in the first wave and the healthcare system did not collapse and we still have some more capacity. But it is true that the CFR now is lower than at the beginning of the pandemic.


----------



## mikeh375

Christabel said:


> Don't worry; be happy. Life is for living, not fear. How do you think millions of people survived the horror of WW2 and the holocaust? Because they were RESILIENT.
> 
> I'm in the most vulnerable cohort; over 65 and a previous cancer patient. But I did laugh when Donald Trump said "corona sounds like an island in Italy". Both the spouse and myself laughed heartily.
> 
> You must also have a sense of humour to survive what life throws at you.


A little resilience and perspective would be useful for those who think their world has crashed because they can't get their nails done, get drunk on a Friday night or jet off for fish and chips in Spain. Imagine the resilience Anne Frank showed by hiding silently for 2 years under the threat of the death that sadly, eventually found her. Being asked to stay at home and watch TV and argue on forums is not a sacrifice.


----------



## Jacck

I wonder what is the explanation for the widely differing CFRs
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...ng=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc

first question - why do some countries (for example the UK) have a much worse CFR than some other countries?
second question - why was the CFR much higher at the beginning of the pandemic?

there can be multiple explanations for the difference in CFR - genetic factors, previous immunizations, climate, quality of healthcare systems, number of tests performed etc. And likewise for the second question, number of tests performed or acquired partial immunization etc.

It is going to be interesting to watch some documentaries about the pandemic in 2 years, when it is hopefully over.


----------



## Guest

mikeh375 said:


> A little resilience and perspective would be useful for those who think their world has crashed because they can't get their nails done, get drunk on a Friday night or jet off for fish and chips in Spain. Imagine the resilience Anne Frank showed by hiding silently for 2 years under the threat of the death that sadly, eventually found her. Being asked to stay at home and watch TV and argue on forums is not a sacrifice.


Bingo. Couldn't agree more!!


----------



## elgar's ghost

Jacck said:


> I wonder what is the explanation for the widely differing CFRs
> https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...ng=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc
> 
> _first question - why do some countries (for example the UK) have a much worse CFR than some other countries?
> second question - why was the CFR much higher at the beginning of the pandemic?_
> 
> there can be multiple explanations for the difference in CFR - genetic factors, previous immunizations, climate, quality of healthcare systems, number of tests performed etc. And likewise for the second question, number of tests performed or acquired partial immunization etc.
> 
> It is going to be interesting to watch some documentaries about the pandemic in 2 years, when it is hopefully over.


This is perhaps an oversimplification and/or stating the obvious:

1. Each country has differing criteria for crediting a death to Covid. I gather that the UK's determination is among the more inclusive, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the UK death figures are exaggerated.

2. In the UK far fewer tests earlier in the year meant far fewer confirmed cases coming to light - i.e. many people were hospitalized or diagnosed in care homes when it was often too late to do anything for them by then. Had the levels of testing that we see now been available during the first peak then the case totals would have been far higher than were shown which would have made the death rate compared to known cases look less stark.


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> This is perhaps an oversimplification and/or stating the obvious:
> 
> 1. Each country has differing criteria for crediting a death to Covid. I gather that the UK's determination is among the more inclusive, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the UK death figures are exaggerated.
> 
> 2. In the UK far fewer tests earlier in the year meant far fewer confirmed cases coming to light - i.e. many people were hospitalized or diagnosed in care homes when it was often too late to do anything for them by then. Had the levels of testing that we see now been available during the first peak then the case totals would have been far higher than were shown which would have made the death rate compared to known cases look less stark.


I am sceptical towards 1. The criteria for determining the COVID deaths are quite clear and international
https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/Guidelines_Cause_of_Death_COVID-19.pdf
also, UK, Spain, Italy and other countries show pretty high "excess deaths"
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...=ESP~England & Wales~DEU~USA~CZE&region=World

it is not only about testing, it seems the virus has been hitting the UK (and spanish and italian) populations more severely. It could be climate (close to the sea, high humidity) or previous exposure to other coronaviruses during the winter. Continental climate is different from countries closer to the sea, the deeper in the continent, the more severe winters etc. So there are a lot of possible factors.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Bingo. Couldn't agree more!!


Yep. The "Karens" who think their inconvenience is more important than our health are selfish idiots.


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> Yep. The "Karens" who think their inconvenience is more important than our health are selfish idiots.


There's no shortage of "Karens" - absolutely everywhere.


----------



## NoCoPilot

The Corona has caused me to read up on the 1918 flu pandemic, and the 1346 Black Death, and pandemics in general. "Karens" are not a new phenomenon. In every case they contribute to the severity and longevity of the public health crisis.

Spock: "Clearly logic dictates the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few."
Kirk: "Or the one."


----------



## starthrower

Most States Aren't Ready to Distribute the Leading COVID-19 Vaccine

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/...y-distribute-leading-covid-19-vaccine/169949/


----------



## wkasimer

Jacck said:


> first question - why do some countries (for example the UK) have a much worse CFR than some other countries?


For starters, it may depend on the definition of "case". Does "case" mean a patient who comes to medical attention due to symptoms? Or does it just mean a person with a positive test?



> second question - why was the CFR much higher at the beginning of the pandemic?


Because at the beginning, we had no idea how best to treat it.


----------



## Strange Magic

Caroline said:


> Check out the historical journalism on the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine, which was rushed through. It did more damage than good.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> People who want to take a vaccine, when it becomes available, should do so. I'm not sold on the idea of a vaccine.


I am totally sold on the idea of a vaccine, unlike Caroline. The particular vaccine itself will need to undergo the usual verifications for safety and efficacy, but the idea of a vaccine is a good idea. I've recently gotten my flu shot......


----------



## Bwv 1080

Strange Magic said:


> I am totally sold on the idea of a vaccine, unlike Caroline. The particular vaccine itself will need to undergo the usual verifications for safety and efficacy, but the idea of a vaccine is a good idea. I've recently gotten my flu shot......


Not sure, what about all those other diseases like small pox, measles, rubella etc? The global population would be much lower and more sustainable without their side effects


----------



## Strange Magic

Bwv 1080 said:


> Not sure, what about all those other diseases like small pox, measles, rubella etc? The global population would be much lower and more sustainable without their side effects


I m entirely missing your point. I'm sure the fault is mine, but could you clearly articulate what the point is?


----------



## annaw

Bwv 1080 said:


> Not sure, what about all those other diseases like small pox, measles, rubella etc? The global population would be much lower and more sustainable without their side effects


Smallpox was officially eradicated thanks to vaccines in the late 70s.


----------



## Jacck

wkasimer said:


> For starters, it may depend on the definition of "case". Does "case" mean a patient who comes to medical attention due to symptoms? Or does it just mean a person with a positive test?


the CFR (ratio of deaths to all covid cases) was higher in some countries than others. If those countries defined cases as including all suspects (even those without tests), its CFR would actually be lower, not higher, because the cases are in the denominator. So it must be the other countries, which would need to define cases inclusive all suspects. But I am pretty sure this is not done in my country. Our cases are only those with a positive test.



> Because at the beginning, we had no idea how best to treat it.


but is it the only explanation? There are other possible factors. People did not wear masks at the beginning and the severity of covid might be dose dependent (how many virus particles you inhale). Or people might have already built some form of partial immunity (by previous exposure to smaller doses of the virus) which reduces mortality etc.


----------



## pianozach

starthrower said:


> Most States Aren't Ready to Distribute the Leading COVID-19 Vaccine
> 
> https://www.defenseone.com/threats/...y-distribute-leading-covid-19-vaccine/169949/


Pfizer is working on a powder form.

Were this a typical vaccine, I'd wager that most states could have a distribution system up and running in roughly a week. But since the current vaccine has to be stored at -100°F, no one has that sort of equipment ready-to-go.

But we already knew this wasn't going to be easy.

And we've got a bunch of people that aren't interested in taking a vaccine . . . . some have bought into some conspiracy that Bill Gates is putting nano-trackers in the vaccine, some simply don't trust a vaccine that hasn't been properly vetted to rush it to market.

We also don't know if this is going to cost us all personally . . . is the vaccine going to be 100% government subsidized?

And this country has a surprisingly large homeless population. 1 in every 588 Americans is homeless.


----------



## wkasimer

Jacck said:


> the CFR (ratio of deaths to all covid cases) was higher in some countries than others. If those countries defined cases as including all suspects (even those without tests), its CFR would actually be lower, not higher, because the cases are in the denominator. So it must be the other countries, which would need to define cases inclusive all suspects. But I am pretty sure this is not done in my country. Our cases are only those with a positive test.


Not quite what I meant. In the past, a "case" is someone with evidence of clinical disease AND a positive diagnostic test. For COVID, it looks as though some define "case" as anyone who tests positive, even if they're asymptomatic.


----------



## Jacck

wkasimer said:


> Not quite what I meant. In the past, a "case" is someone with evidence of clinical disease AND a positive diagnostic test. For COVID, it looks as though some define "case" as anyone who tests positive, even if they're asymptomatic.


yes, omitting positive asymptomatic people would increase CFR, though I have no idea if cases were defined like this somewhere.


----------



## annaw

wkasimer said:


> Not quite what I meant. In the past, a "case" is someone with evidence of clinical disease AND a positive diagnostic test. For COVID, it looks as though some define "case" as anyone who tests positive, even if they're asymptomatic.


Even asymptomatic person can spread the virus (although possibly much less than a coughing corona positive person). In Estonia, they sometimes do repeated tests to ensure that the person who got a negative test result is nit false-negative.


----------



## Jacck

annaw said:


> Even asymptomatic person can spread the virus (although possibly much less than a coughing corona positive person). In Estonia, they sometimes do repeated tests to ensure that the person who got a negative test result is nit false-negative.


the latest recommendation is NOT to repeat the tests, because they come positive. We go strictly by the clinical picture here. If the person is clinically better (no fever, no dyspnoea etc), he is viewed as negative and uninfectious and can be discharged. The PCR tests come positive for a long time, because they always detect some viral DNA.


----------



## Flamme

This will spread paranoia in an already crazy world even more...


----------



## annaw

Jacck said:


> the latest recommendation is NOT to repeat the tests, because they come positive. We go strictly by the clinical picture here. If the person is clinically better (no fever, no dyspnoea etc), he is viewed as negative and uninfectious and can be discharged. The PCR tests come positive for a long time, because they always detect some viral DNA.


Dunno, on the other hand, they have managed to track down at least one bigger outbreak that way. It'd be interesting to know how much are immunoassays used. They can be suuuper sensitive (so sensitive, in fact, that one is tempted to use the word "capricious" instead :lol:.)


----------



## Bwv 1080

Strange Magic said:


> I m entirely missing your point. I'm sure the fault is mine, but could you clearly articulate what the point is?





annaw said:


> Smallpox was officially eradicated thanks to vaccines in the late 70s.


Just being snarky, the side effect of these vaccines being the growth in population that came from reducing mortality from these diseases


----------



## NoCoPilot

Bwv 1080 said:


> Just being snarky, the side effect of these vaccines being the growth in population that came from reducing mortality from these diseases


Actually, in Third World countries when you prevent childhood deaths from disease, the birth rate actually goes DOWN as families no longer have to "stockpile" offspring and instead invest their resources in raising the ones they've got.


----------



## Bwv 1080

NoCoPilot said:


> Actually, in Third World countries when you prevent childhood deaths from disease, the birth rate actually goes DOWN as families no longer have to "stockpile" offspring and instead invest their resources in raising the ones they've got.


I am neither anti-vaccine nor a population alarmist, but reduced fertility is more tied to economic development than declines in childhood mortality due to improved medical care

But Strange Magic is the resident population alarmist, who I was jibing with the original comment


----------



## Strange Magic

NoCoPilot said:


> Actually, in Third World countries when you prevent childhood deaths from disease, the birth rate actually goes DOWN as families no longer have to "stockpile" offspring and instead invest their resources in raising the ones they've got.


Couple this excellent trend with increasing access by women to effective contraception and we begin to climb upward out of misery.

Bwv 1080 is also right-on concerning the benefits of economic development. A wise foreign policy recognizes this and works to help such development in third-world societies. Unwise foreign policy announces that aid will be cut off from countries that are struggling with such poverty and crime that people leave home and head north in desperation.


----------



## NoCoPilot

There you go, bringing common sense into a discussion of foreign policy


----------



## Flamme

Seattle brah??? I saw someone online calling it a ''liberal prison''...


----------



## Strange Magic

Flamme said:


> Seattle brah??? I saw someone online calling it a ''liberal prison''...


What did they mean?


----------



## NoCoPilot

Flamme said:


> Seattle brah??? I saw someone online calling it a ''liberal prison''...


Seattle metro voted 90% Biden, 8% Trump. My kind of prison.


----------



## Guest

annaw said:


> Smallpox was officially eradicated thanks to vaccines in the late 70s.


It took a very long time; same with measles, polio and TB (though the latter is still around in some countries, it can be controlled with antibiotics). Time is the element here.

I remember vaccinations starting from childhood to today; Sabin Oral (Polio), Triple Antigen (Whooping Cough, Tetanus and Diptheria), Mantoux Test for TB, combined with regular free chest X-rays, Rubella, Pneumonia, Shingles, Annual Flu, HPV for girls, Covid-19 - in the wings. Those Triple Antigen shots for babies need to be renewed in adulthood, eg. Tetanus. The Whooping Cough vaccine lasts but a few short years; there have been break-outs around the world and I had it TWICE; when I was 47 and again at 55. There is a vaccine available and I'd highly recommend adults go for it again. It's a horrible condition where you cough for weeks on end. I caught it from the little darlings at school, but nobody else in my family got it. With the second dose I caught, within a decade, I presented at 56 to my local hospital (just 3 weeks after I'd retired) and the doctor said "there's no way you'll have this again after the last episode". He ordered a blood test and later phoned me at home, apologetic, that I did indeed have it.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Time is the element here.


Yes, time is the element here. Expect it to take 2 years to get the majority of the world's population vaccinated (with a working vaccine) and another 2-3 years for COVID-19 to disappear from the radar after that.

And that ASSUMES the majority of people will allow themselves to be vaccinated.

The "1918 Influenza Pandemic" lasted into April 1920, and only receded at that point because nearly 1/3 of the world's population had gotten it. In 1927 it was estimated that 21.6 million people died of it, although later estimates (2005) put the toll at between 50 million and 100 million people (3-5% of the population, or 9-15% of the infected population).

So, all you Karens out there, you'd better put on your seat belts. We're in for a bumpy ride.


----------



## NoCoPilot

For comparison, as of today there are 53,085,762 confirmed cases of COVID in the world. The world's population today stands at 7,786,938,974.

Therefore we have so far infected *0.68172% of the world's population*, less than three-quarters of one percent. If we let this thing run its course without intervention we can expect AT LEAST 1-3/4 billion people to get infected and 52-1/2 million to die.

So please, wear a damn mask.


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> Yes, time is the element here. Expect it to take 2 years to get the majority of the world's population vaccinated (with a working vaccine) and another 2-3 years for COVID-19 to disappear from the radar after that.
> 
> And that ASSUMES the majority of people will allow themselves to be vaccinated.
> 
> The "1918 Influenza Pandemic" lasted into April 1920, and only receded at that point because nearly 1/3 of the world's population had gotten it. In 1927 it was estimated that 21.6 million people died of it, although later estimates (2005) put the toll at between 50 million and 100 million people (3-5% of the population, or 9-15% of the infected population).
> 
> So, all you Karens out there, you'd better put on your seat belts. We're in for a bumpy ride.


Who are the Karens you're talking about on TC? I don't believe in lockdowns and I agree with author Lionel Shriver who says there will be disasters of an economic kind, putting Covid in the shade, by 2022. She's a very smart woman!!


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> Who are the Karens you're talking about on TC? I don't believe in lockdowns and I agree with author Lionel Shriver who says there will be disasters of an economic kind, putting Covid in the shade, by 2022. She's a very smart woman!!


I see it this way: the pandemic is uncontrolled in the US, as those in charge were more worried about the economy than the health of the public.

The irony is, of course, that by ignoring the health of the public, it will have a lasting effect on the economy.


----------



## Flamme

Strange Magic said:


> What did they mean?


I can't vouch for his exact thoughts but I think he meant that if you have a ''different'' opinion than the ''majority'' you need to keep it to yourself at all times...


----------



## Strange Magic

Flamme said:


> I can't vouch for his exact thoughts but I think he meant that if you have a ''different'' opinion than the ''majority'' you need to keep it to yourself at all times...


Thanks. Very useful information, I think, maybe?


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## Flamme

Well it is sort of a echo chamber, I reckon...


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## NoCoPilot

pianozach said:


> I see it this way: the pandemic is uncontrolled in the US, as those in charge were more worried about the economy  STOCK MARKET than the health of the public.


Fixed that for you.


----------



## Strange Magic

I strongly recommend the approach to COVID testing being promoted by Michael Mina of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, here discussed:

https://harvardmagazine.com/2020/08/covid-19-test-for-public-health

Mina says (as everyone knows) that the US has failed utterly to test millions effectively and efficiently for COVID, but could turn the corner with mass distribution and use of quick in-home testing. Here is part of his thesis, and I urge others to read the entire article.....

"We need to change the whole script of what it means to test people," he says. "In our country, we have always assumed that testing belongs in the clinical sphere, in the diagnostic sphere, and has to be run by laboratories or diagnosticians. The result is that we have a system for coronavirus testing…which is flailing, with raging outbreaks occurring." What the country needs instead are rapid tests, widely deployed, so that infectious individuals can be readily self-identified and isolated, breaking the chain of transmission.

To do that, Mina says, everyone must be tested, every couple of days, with $1, paper-based, at-home tests that are as easy to distribute and use as a pregnancy test: wake up in the morning, add saliva or nasal mucous to a tube of chemicals, wait 15 minutes, then dip a paper strip in the tube, and read the results. Such tests are feasible-a tiny company called E25Bio, and another called Sherlock Biosciences (a start-up spun out of Harvard's Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering and the Broad Institute in 2019) can deliver such tests-but they have not made it to the marketplace because their sensitivity is being compared to that of PCR tests.

Mina says that is beside the point. "Imagine you are a fire department," he says, "and you want to make sure that you catch all the fires that are burning so you can put them out. You don't want a test that's going to detect every time somebody lights a match in their house-that would be crazy: you'd be driving everywhere and having absolutely no effect. You want a test that can detect every time somebody is walking the streets with a flame-thrower."

FOR PUBLIC-HEALTH PURPOSES, speed and frequency of testing are vastly more important than sensitivity: the best test would actually be less sensitive than a PCR test. As Mina explains, when a person first becomes infected, there will be an incubation period when no test will reveal the infection, because the viral loads are so low. About "three to five days later, the PCR test will turn positive, and once that happens the virus is reproducing exponentially in a very predictable fashion." At that point, critically, "even if a rapid test is 1,000 times less sensitive than a PCR test," Mina says, the virus is increasing so rapidly that the test "will probably turn positive within eight to 15 or 24 hours. So the real window of time that we're discussing here-the difference in sensitivity that makes people uncomfortable"-is so small that public-health officers would be missing very few asymptomatic people taking the test in that narrow window of time. Given that the current testing frequency in most states, using highly sensitive but expensive and delayed PCR tests, is not even once a month, he points out-"Really, it's never."

So even though a saliva-based paper test wouldn't register a positive result for as long as a half or even a full day after the PCR test, it would have great value in identifying pockets of infection that might otherwise be undetected altogether.

The strength of this system is that it would actually abrogate the need for contact tracing, says Mina. "If your goal is not to have a heavy hand over the population" (implementing onerous public-health restrictions on businesses and recreational activity), this is the way to do it, he explains, because it strips away "all of that complexity." Most people who test positive will have done so before they become infectious, and can easily self-quarantine for the six days or so until they cease being infectious. Even if some people don't quarantine, and the test cuts off just 90 percent of all the infections that might spread, "you'd immediately bring the population prevalence of the disease to very low numbers, to the point where all of a sudden society would start to look safe again."


----------



## Jacck

^^^ yes, those are the antigen tests. They are indeed like pregnancy tests. Slovakia tested the whole nation of 5 million over one weekend with the antigen tests
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-population-covid-tested-covid-one-day


----------



## Flamme

Just gonna leave this here https://time.com/5911491/elon-musk-covid-19/


----------



## pianozach

Where's my nano-bot-microtracker? QAnoners promised me one in my vaccine!


----------



## Flamme

Cmon now, musk is serious fella!


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Cmon now, musk is serious fella!


musk is a con man always trying to find ways how to fleece investors


----------



## Flamme

Ya think? He has nothing to gain by these statements...After all one of his companies was/is involved in making of a ''vaccine''.


----------



## Strange Magic

Flamme said:


> Just gonna leave this here https://time.com/5911491/elon-musk-covid-19/


Michael Mina was asked about Musk's anomalous test results today on Brian Lehrer's program on WNYC, and responded that Musk provided precious little specific information that researchers could use to properly evaluate his experience. Mina also explained that a positive test using a quick saliva testing kit would then be followed up by the more elaborate, expensive, time-consuming but more accurate laboratory test, and by self-quarantine until the lab test showed yea or nay. See following article:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...test-tweets-raise-more-questions-than-answers

Another point Mina made today was the fact that very few hospitals were routinely testing their staff for COVID, and that fact continues to blow his mind. He observed that the hospitals could combine 50 swabs at a time for a mass test and wade through large populations of their staff quickly. His point is that the country has yet to seriously address repeated and mass testing.


----------



## Flamme

I know many people who got inconclusive tests many times before ''hitting a jackpot'' in a twisted way...Objectively,when you remove all the media and internet frenzy, its all like madness...From both sides of ''divide''...Last night while waitin in line to pay some bills, I was verbally abused by some chic because I lowered my mask under my nose which I did so my glasses wouldnt get foggy because of my breathing upwards...When she saw I didnt pay much attention she started talking to other and into thin air...Crazy people everywhere and coming from me its a lot...


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> musk is a con man always trying to find ways how to fleece investors


Actually this is absolutely correct.


----------



## Roger Knox

pianozach said:


> I see it this way: the pandemic is uncontrolled in the US, as those in charge were more worried about the economy than the health of the public.
> 
> The irony is, of course, that by ignoring the health of the public, it will have a lasting effect on the economy.


I believe Lionel Shriver is a man ...


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> I see it this way: the pandemic is uncontrolled in the US, as those in charge were more worried about the economy than the health of the public.
> 
> The irony is, of course, that by ignoring the health of the public, it will have a lasting effect on the economy.


Lionel Shriver has exhaustively researched the American and global economic systems for her book "*The Mandibles*". Dystopian fiction. I believe she is absolutely correct about the damaging consequences of locking down a vital hub of the global economic system. Ignoring public health? Sadly, Covid 19 is destroying the retired cohort - not the active working generations.

Stay tuned to see if Shriver is correct. She also made some incredible comments about international debt levels in a British interview recently and makes frightening assessments. "The answer to debt is more debt - which will never be repaid".

Up, up, up, up, up........BANG.

(I'm not waiting for this to happen and am taking steps to avoid losses.)


----------



## Strange Magic

Lionel Shriver: most recent hobbyhorse/guru. A trained epidemiologist? Nooooo.........


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## Strange Magic

I have posted above of the proposal of Michael Mina of Harvard on the efficacy of massive testing at home by tens of millions daily, using what he says would be $! saliva or nasal mucus test kits. Positive tests would be followed by more accurate PCR tests. Mina has worked out a whole scenario for this, and I assume that the Biden administration will be looking at it. Were I Biden, and knowing what I know about the indifference, ignorance, and suspicion that Trumpism has wrought upon much of the population today, I would A) strongly make the case that everyone buy into mass testing (of the Mina variety) as a demonstration of patriotism, common sense, etc. But then B) say I understand that a certain percentage will not ("for various reasons") so participate, and so are excused while the rest of the population enrolls in a testing regimen, as the program does not require that everyone participate, and that just those concerned about their own and their family's health will and need do so. This is Mina's point, that the mathematics of mass, daily testing only requires a certain meaningful percentage of compliance to work.

I think the notion of being somehow benignly left out, excused, written off, if one is a skeptic about routine easy at-home testing, will be a spur to a growing number of doubters that maybe they had better get into the game after all--in the privacy of their own bathrooms, they can safely entertain the idea of testing and of determining their own COVID status without seeming to break ranks with their ideological peers. I certainly hope that Michael Mina's seemingly carefully-thought-out program is looked at seriously by the Biden COVID team.


----------



## Flamme

The other night I was listening to some television which is an affiliate of CNN in balkans, N1 and was literally brainwashed for half an hour about Covid...Not what they were saying but hoiw, it was some tehnique...I really like that station because it is the only one with ''national frequency'' that criticizes the current regime, but didnt watch them for a while, because I rarely watch domestic networks...


----------



## pianozach

Strange Magic said:


> . . . I assume that the Biden administration will be looking at it. Were I Biden, and knowing what I know about the indifference, ignorance, and suspicion that Trumpism has wrought upon much of the population today . . . .
> 
> . . . . . I certainly hope that Michael Mina's seemingly carefully-thought-out program is looked at seriously by the Biden COVID team.


Biden will be coming into the White House being cheated out of some "transition" protocols that are usual by the Trump administration, forcing him to start choosing HIS advisors, staff, and cabinet that won't need an "on-the-job training" period in order to be "up to speed" on Inauguration Day.

He's picked his former Vice Presidential Chief of Staff Ron Klain to be his Presidential Chief of Staff.

Klain has served as general counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and was the the Ebola czar during Obama's second term. There are simply very few people who have the 360-degree view of how to handle something like Covid-19 that Klain does. Picking Klain then makes very clear that Biden sees the virus as the top priority for the start of his first term.

Before that Klain also helped shepherd the 2009 Recovery Act.

Right now, when the country is dealing with multiple simultaneous crises, it's probably best that Biden is choosing people that are already up on how to navigate their way through the governmental obstacle course.


----------



## Flamme

I was just thinking if they did it to me for only half an hour what do they do to people who watcvh them all day long, 24/7...It was legit creepy and disturbing...


----------



## SixFootScowl

Flamme said:


> I was just thinking if they did it to me for only half an hour what do they do to people who watcvh them all day long, 24/7...It was legit creepy and disturbing...


Television is a brainwashing tool. I quit watching television in 1989.


----------



## SixFootScowl

pianozach said:


> Biden will be coming into the White House being cheated out of some "transition" protocols that are usual by the Trump administration, forcing him to start choosing HIS advisors, staff, and cabinet that won't need an "on-the-job training" period in order to be "up to speed" on Inauguration Day.


Given there has been no official call on who won the election, I assume you are thinking that Biden will beat Pence in 2024?


----------



## Jacck

SixFootScowl said:


> Television is a brainwashing tool. I quit watching television in 1989.


internet is an even more dangerous brainwashing tool, because it is easy to get yourself caught in some echo chamber


----------



## Flamme

SixFootScowl said:


> Television is a brainwashing tool. I quit watching television in 1989.


1989! It was great then! There are lots of cool and useful tv stations on cable today where I dont find any trace of ''manipulation''...Like different history, sport and specialised channels, even some kids channels I have discovered with my nephew...Even TV station that I mentioned is perhaps the only one I watch from ''balkan tvs'' but this ''lecture'' of covid was over the top and my red lights turned on, I simply have a strong sense when something is off, whether its tv or life...


----------



## Strange Magic

Flamme, you would greatly enjoy Richard Whately's 1819 book, _Historical Doubts Relative to Napoleon Buonaparte_. In that slender but remarkable volume, Whately, for a time the Archbishop of Dublin, "proved" beyond the shadow of a doubt that Napoleon Buonaparte never existed and that all "evidence" that such a person had existed was erroneous and/or downright fraudulent, and that any such testimony that there had been a Napoleon was, then, Fake News!


----------



## Roger Knox

Roger Knox said:


> I believe Lionel Shriver is a man ...


Oops I was wrong! Author Lionel Shriver is a women. I was thinking of Lionel Tiger the male anthropologist. Showing my age, and what is worse, another addition to nonsense.


----------



## Strange Magic

Roger Knox said:


> Oops I was wrong! Author Lionel Shriver is a women. I was thinking of Lionel Tiger the male anthropologist. Showing my age, and what is worse, another addition to nonsense.


Lionel Tiger published several important books co-written with Robin Fox.


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Flamme, you would greatly enjoy Richard Whately's 1819 book, _Historical Doubts Relative to Napoleon Buonaparte_. In that slender but remarkable volume, Whately, for a time the Archbishop of Dublin, "proved" beyond the shadow of a doubt that Napoleon Buonaparte never existed and that all "evidence" that such a person had existed was erroneous and/or downright fraudulent, and that any such testimony that there had been a Napoleon was, then, Fake News!


That absolutely suits the zeitgeist!!!


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Lionel Shriver: most recent hobbyhorse/guru. A trained epidemiologist? Nooooo.........


You shall see in time whether she's right. She's talking about the opportunity cost of shutting down an international economy. My advice to you is to be alert but not alarmed. Hint: the global economy isn't structured in such as way as to support the _hibernation_ of vast numbers of people; it's predicated on everybody doing lots and lots of very hard work to keep it going.

(For the Left anybody with an opinion contrary to theirs is a 'guru' and anybody who agrees with them is "science". :lol


----------



## Guest

SixFootScowl said:


> Television is a brainwashing tool. I quit watching television in 1989.


So what do I conclude? You've brainwashed yourself.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> You shall see in time whether she's right. She's talking about the opportunity cost of shutting down an international economy. My advice to you is to be alert but not alarmed. Hint: the global economy isn't structured in such as way as to support the _hibernation_ of vast numbers of people; it's predicated on everybody doing lots and lots of very hard work to keep it going.
> 
> (For the Left anybody with an opinion contrary to theirs is a 'guru' and anybody who agrees with them is "science". :lol


Lionel Shriver: Epidemiologist? Nooooo.... Economist? Nooooo..... Writer of fiction and journalist _du jour_? Yessssss....

The correct usage is "You will see in time..." And so shall we all. And thanks for the advice and the hint! I had no idea how the global economy worked--its vitality is yet more proof that Trump has done a great job in containing the coronavirus, as we knew he would.


----------



## Guest

Apropos just one of the financial consequences of the virtual shutdown of the global economy:

Professor Scott Galloway of NYU Stern School of Business said, in his keynote address to a recent investment conference, the big winners of the crisis are going to keep being the big winners: "_Whenever there is the culling of the herd, the elephants that have survived just have more foliage to feed off_," he explained.

This is just one of the things Shriver is alluding to, but if you're not economically literate....you'll never understand that what is keeping the global economy alive is debt - and more debt, and debt piled upon more debt. Some of the laws of physics should tell you what happens when something continues to go up, and up and up and up and up - especially when there are less and less people out there working their backsides off to sustain that upwards trajectory.

Hint No. 2: When the stock market crashed in *1929* throwing millions onto the streets it wasn't until *1954* that it 'recovered' to previous levels. And that was aided by huge growth in post-war economies where everybody worked their backsides off. The world is very different today.

This is the kind of thing which most intelligent people, who are widely read, already understand. It is not merely the prerogative of economists to call this; they're the very people who often get it wrong - with their crystal ball gazing - because they're probably looking through the prism of some government-driven ideology. Prof. Niall Ferguson - an Applied Economic Historian; check out his work. He says very high inflation can deal with debt over the long term. That's when you need your wheelbarrow.


----------



## Roger Knox

Strange Magic said:


> Lionel Tiger published several important books co-written with Robin Fox.


Sorry. I meant _my mistake_ added to nonsense, not that Lionel Tiger is nonsense.


----------



## Strange Magic

Roger Knox said:


> Sorry. I meant _my mistake_ added to nonsense, not that Lionel Tiger is nonsense.


No need to be sorry! It just gave me a chance to be silly. I always thought that the bonding of the Tiger and the Fox was a fun thing in itself, exclusive of any act of judgment. :lol:


----------



## pianozach

SixFootScowl said:


> Given there has been no official call on who won the election, I assume you are thinking that Biden will beat Pence in 2024?


Well, no election is officially "official" until early January, after the Electoral College has presented their vote to Congress and they vote to certify it on January 6.

All but two states have been "called", Georgia and North Carolina, but it's expected that Georgia will go to Biden and NC to Trump, bringing the final (very) likely tally to 306 to 232.

Incumbents usually have the edge in presidential elections (and other positions from Senator to Mayor). I doubt that either *Trump* or *Pence* will actually run in 2024. *Trump* will be 77 years old, and is already suffering from health issues and cognitive decline. He's also got some serious psychological issues, and will likely be facing a myriad of legal problems once he's out of office.

*Pence*? Inextricably tied to Trump as a yes-man, and has as much charisma as a hairball. He'll be 64 by the next Presidential election. *Romney* will also be 77 in 2024. *Cruz* and *Graham* are patently unlikeable.

So, the election has been "called", but the result isn't "official".


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Well, no election is officially "official" until early January, after the Electoral College has presented their vote to Congress and they vote to certify it on January 6.
> 
> All but two states have been "called", Georgia and North Carolina, but it's expected that Georgia will go to Biden and NC to Trump, bringing the final (very) likely tally to 306 to 232.
> 
> Incumbents usually have the edge in presidential elections (and other positions from Senator to Mayor). I doubt that either *Trump* or *Pence* will actually run in 2024. *Trump* will be 77 years old, and is already suffering from health issues and cognitive decline. He's also got some serious psychological issues, and will likely be facing a myriad of legal problems once he's out of office.
> 
> *Pence*? Inextricably tied to Trump as a yes-man, and has as much charisma as a hairball. He'll be 64 by the next Presidential election. *Romney* will also be 77 in 2024. *Cruz* and *Graham* are patently unlikeable.
> 
> So, the election has been "called", but the result isn't "official".


Oh, I thought Biden was running for the Senate. That's what he said, wasn't it!! And he also said, "I don't want you to vote to get me there I want your vote afterwards". We are all looking forward to him having to speak without an autocue!! That'll come before his afternoon grandpa nap. I'm also looking forward to him at 78 negotiating those 16 hour days x 7.

And you're telling us Trump is in cognitive decline!! That's called_ a projection_. And it's a silly statement anyway.

Trump is behaving badly and needs to leave the building at the appointed time. But, I'm figuring, he took his cue from #notmypresident of 2016 and the refusal to acknowledge him for 4 long years of endless conspiracies. That dreadful crone Nancy Pelosi (I've seen more attractive gargoyles on the facade of Sydney University!) was behind much of that.

Trump is badly behaved; there's no doubt about that. But he's right about one thing; shutting down the US economy for Covid-19 will prove absolutely catastrophic.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Trump is badly behaved; there's no doubt about that. But he's right about one thing; shutting down the US economy for Covid-19 will prove absolutely catastrophic.


People still need to eat. People still need clothes, and cars, and books, and washing machines, and the new iPhone 12. The economy (which is GLOBAL, not just USA) is not "shut down."

Do people need to gather in restaurants? Do people need to go to the mall? Do people need to gather in the park and wave placards? Doubtful.

Shop online and buy your food in small groups while being socially distanced. When you absolutely HAVE to have that restaurant hamburger -- which we all do now and then -- order it "to go." Watch movies at home. Wave your placards in chat forums. We'll get through this.


----------



## Strange Magic

Trump was pleased to pass, hermetically sealed, through his enormous COVID SuperSpreader event in Washington DC. Future toll of infection and death unknown at this time. I will concede that from the antipodes looking through a poorly-crafted, rose-tinted lens, one would recognize Trump as merely "badly behaved". The reality here in the USA is much more dire. If one chooses to discuss Trump and Trumpism further, you are invited to participate in the ongoing dialogues down in the Political Groups, where all acknowledge such subjects belong.


----------



## Flamme

Strange Magic said:


> Flamme, you would greatly enjoy Richard Whately's 1819 book, _Historical Doubts Relative to Napoleon Buonaparte_. In that slender but remarkable volume, Whately, for a time the Archbishop of Dublin, "proved" beyond the shadow of a doubt that Napoleon Buonaparte never existed and that all "evidence" that such a person had existed was erroneous and/or downright fraudulent, and that any such testimony that there had been a Napoleon was, then, Fake News!


I think comparing the historical person with a virus is...:lol:B ut thanks for the advice I WILL see to get my hands ont one...


----------



## Strange Magic

Flamme said:


> I think comparing the historical person with a virus is...:lol:B ut thanks for the advice I WILL see to get my hands ont one...


Here's an on-line version:

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Historic_Doubts_Relative_to_Napoleon_Buonaparte

Beyond the virus, Whately"s book and example are a wonderful precursor to today's practice of creating whatever reality suits the occasion. Did you know that President Trump's inauguration was the biggest ever assembled in Washington? And that he swept the popular vote as well as the Electoral College? (Except for the millions of illegal aliens who voted for Hillary. Or Biden.)


----------



## SixFootScowl

NoCoPilot said:


> Do people need to gather in the park and wave placards? Doubtful.


No, but people sure need to riot, loot and burn buildings.


----------



## Strange Magic

SixFootScowl said:


> No, but people sure need to riot, loot and burn buildings.


People have been rioting, looting, and burning buildings for centuries here in the Land of Opportunity. I remember Watts and the Koerner commission report; I have read about Wilmington NC and Tulsa and the New York draft riots of the Civil War era. I remember Rodney King and MLK's murder. Maybe somebody should do something about it.


----------



## NoCoPilot

SixFootScowl said:


> No, but people sure need to riot, loot and burn buildings.


Yup. If you look into these, they are nearly 100% Proud Boy white supremacist supporters of Trump trying to discredit BLM protests.

But you knew that, because you don't get all your news from Fox.


----------



## SixFootScowl

NoCoPilot said:


> Yup. If you look into these, they are nearly 100% Proud Boy white supremacist supporters of Trump trying to discredit BLM protests.
> 
> But you knew that, because you don't get all your news from Fox.


As i don't know much about the Proud Boys I can't say what they stand for but I do not believe they are out rioting or burning and looting. As for Trump Supporters, a mass-murderer may be a Trump supporter (in the sense of being pro-Trump) but that does not mean Trump supporters condone that activity.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Strange Magic said:


> People have been rioting, looting, and burning buildings for centuries here in the Land of Opportunity. I remember Watts and the Koerner commission report; I have read about Wilmington NC and Tulsa and the New York draft riots of the Civil War era. I remember Rodney King and MLK's murder. Maybe somebody should do something about it.


True but it seems there has been decades worth of rioting concentrated into one summer.


----------



## Guest

In Australia our Western Australia government won't tolerate one dose of Covid-19. Their borders have been shut virtually since April this year. They were opened to 2 states very briefly and on the weekend 3 people caught Covid-19 and travelled to Perth. Their shut borders were re-imposed; come here to Perth and you are in house-arrest for 14 days. Never mind if you only wanted to be there 3 days. We have been trying to get to Perth to see our son (and his boys) since April but we've now given up hope of ever getting there. No vaccine is ever going to completely eradicate Covid-19 and the WA government will not tolerate one case without house-arrest. That means no domestic or international travel, effectively. I blame the people and their unmitigated fear of illness. 

Good luck being on planet earth and being afraid of illness and disease!!


----------



## Strange Magic

SixFootScowl said:


> True but it seems there has been decades worth of rioting concentrated into one summer.


Out of prurient curiosity, I googled "Detroit Riots" as a topic, and found Wikipedia entries:

Detroit Riots 1943
Detroit Riots 1967
Detroit Riots 1968 
Detroit Riots 2016
Detroit Riots 2020

I also found, under Wikipedia, Detroit riots, entries on riots in:

1833
1849
1855-1859
1863
1891
1894
1934
1942


----------



## Flamme

NoCoPilot said:


> Yup. If you look into these, they are nearly 100% Proud Boy white supremacist supporters of Trump trying to discredit BLM protests.
> 
> But you knew that, because you don't get all your news from Fox.


Umm are you like serious, now, brah??? I mean I dont have a ''horse'' in this race but it is clear to anyone objective that although maybe there are some infiltrated provocateurs the most of the violence comes from die hard communist anarchists and blm supporters the so called ''black blocs''...


----------



## Strange Magic

Flamme said:


> Umm are you like serious, now, brah??? I mean I dont have a ''horse'' in this race but it is clear to anyone objective that although maybe there are some infiltrated provocateurs the most of the violence comes from die hard communist anarchists and blm supporters the so called ''black blocs''...


I know you wouldn't post this without some documentation from respected news sources and perhaps input from the FBI or the DHS or a survey of local police statistics. Could you share with us your data on the composition of violent rioters as ''die hard communist anarchists and BLM supporters"? I myself did not know that there was such a common thing as a communist anarchist. My studies of the Russian Revolution indicate that the Communists and the Anarchists did not get along well at all. Ditto Spain during the Spanish Civil War. Perhaps things seem clearer in Change. Eternal.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> Umm are you like serious, now, brah??? I mean I dont have a ''horse'' in this race but it is clear to anyone objective that although maybe there are some infiltrated provocateurs the most of the violence comes from die hard communist anarchists and blm supporters the so called ''black blocs''...


This is also how it is perceived by the world outside the USA. The images speak for themselves.

But they obviously weren't concerned about Covid-19. In the least.


----------



## Strange Magic

SixFootScowl said:


> As i don't know much about the Proud Boys I can't say what they stand for but I do not believe they are out rioting or burning and looting. As for Trump Supporters, a mass-murderer may be a Trump supporter (in the sense of being pro-Trump) but that does not mean Trump supporters condone that activity.


I have found that the Internet is a useful and convenient way to learn about things. Here is Wikipedia's entry on The Proud Boys:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Boys


----------



## NoCoPilot

Flamme said:


> Umm are you like serious, now, brah??? I mean I dont have a ''horse'' in this race but it is clear to anyone objective that although maybe there are some infiltrated provocateurs the most of the violence comes from die hard communist anarchists and blm supporters the so called ''black blocs''...


Yes, I'm serious. I live in Seattle, and Fox News coverage of the situation here was totally off-base. I have many friends in Portland too.

There was rioting. There was property damage. There were clashes with police. Almost every one of them were agitators who came in from outside looking to cause anarchy and stir stuff up. The BLM protestors were aghast.
https://www.king5.com/article/news/...ests/281-908cad06-29be-408a-9093-3f45941bc039
https://www.kgw.com/article/news/lo...sted/283-885935bf-9dbd-4325-8a3c-bdbfb1c60079
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/trump-biden-election-campaign.html


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> This is also how it is perceived by the world outside the USA. The images speak for themselves.
> 
> But they obviously weren't concerned about Covid-19. In the least.


Yes indeed, the "images speak for themselves."


----------



## NoCoPilot

SixFootScowl said:


> True but it seems there has been decades worth of rioting concentrated into one summer.


I'm old enough to remember the ant-war riots over Viet Nam between '67-73. A little too young to be really aware of the '60-64 civil rights riots.

It feels to me like we haven't been that politically divided since then.


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> I'm old enough to remember the ant-war riots over Viet Nam between '67-73. A little too young to be really aware of the '60-64 civil rights riots.
> 
> It feels to me like we haven't been that politically divided since then.


You have included an image of a group of white guys (and I still don't know what they were doing since they haven't trashed or torched the place) but have failed to include those of people in their many hundreds looting shops, burning, assaulting others in the street, overturning and trashing cars, making off with new TV sets and threatening the police - right in their face. I wonder why you've done this? I wonder if I wonder? Those many images beamed all over the world and CNN laughingly describes them as 'peaceful protests'. Orwellian. Perhaps you think you and others have a right to do this and then blame it on others? Have another guess.

I say again, none of these people care about Covid-19 so why collapse your economic system? Something doesn't add up. Biden and company arriving in masks and a few cars for the campaign and after the win - voila! - no more Covid 19. Street parties, group hugs. The lot.

A stunt. The lot of it. But don't worry; nobody has noticed. Or anything.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Read the links I provided


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> Read the links I provided


The New York Times!! Give me a break. Give us all a break. The most partisan and activist news outlet in the USA. They cannot be trusted in any way, shape or form. Nor any of their group-thinking acolytes; all singing from the same song sheet. The journalist Bari Weiss wrote a very public resignation letter a few months ago, unable to tolerate the bullying and conformity which passes for journalism. It's part of their Critical Race Theory SWJ mindset to label all 'white privilege' bad and all 'toxic masculinity' bad (even though they're happy to see them take bullets in a theatre of war) while they themselves are the epitome of virtue. Who needs Ipecac when you have the New York Times?

One of their journalists, David Brooks, was talking on The News Hour just after the election. He was condescending about the white working class males who voted for Trump - as though he alone carried the social virtue. His was the decision to arbitrate on who was a good person and who a bad person. Mark Shields had to provide the corrective: "these were the kind of people who rushed towards danger when the World Trade towers collapsed, saving the lives of others and losing their own".

Beyond contemptible.

In so many ways, as per their eponymous rag, New York City is provincial and insular.

Apologies to the many millions of wonderful Americans who aren't like this!!


----------



## Strange Magic

It's quite sad to read Christabel's antipodean misinformation about just about anything that has happened in the USA in the past 50 or so years. She has been kept in darkness, likely self-imposed, about many things: One, certainly, has been the withdrawal in disgust, shock, horror, and real fear, of the core of American Real Republicans and Real Conservatives from the The Mutant Trump and both his inner circle of sycophants and lickspittles, and his now-enormous following as a bizarre god by millions of screaming acolytes and True Believers. Perhaps this infection has now crossed thousands of miles of ocean.

I suggest that Christabel also become familiar with American Conservatism--figures such as George Will will be a start:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...80ecf4-a425-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html

And that she master the tried, true, trusted news organizations with reporters in the field and long histories of gathering facts and figures--like the BBC and the NYTimes--and put aside her enthusiasm for Social Media, YouTube and other Internet gurus-of-the-month. In America now, one can quickly determine who actually knows what is going on by asking from where they draw their news. Everyone on the Right these days, obsessed with the New Truths of Trump, the Church of Trump, Trumpism, and Trump-Love, has trimmed and structured their raw input of "news" of the world to include only those sources that reinforce the new universe of "Alternative Facts" that we became aware of right from Inauguration Day. Is the traditional American press really "the enemy of the people"? Do Americans--many of them--now care so little for the truth about a sick grifter in the Oval Office that they will countenance such a presence? And does Christabel now join the adoration, and kneel to kiss the proffered, fithy, ring?

Come down to the Political Groups to continue to probe these issues there, where they belong. There, you have every chance to freely develop your strange notions of America gleaned from far away, and read at length of the paucity and error of your knowledge of American politics and history.


----------



## Strange Magic

Speaking of eponymous rags, Christabel is clearly referring to utterly corrupt and contemptible Australian media magnate Rupert Murdoch's _New York Post_, a grotesque farrago of lies and filth spouting the praises of the New God Trump. Good material for lining the bottom of bird cages. Even Murdoch's son is showing signs of disgust at the destruction his father has wrought, worldwide. Thanks, Australia, for your gift from the Dark Side.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/31/897929181/james-murdoch-quits-family-media-empire-after-disagreements


----------



## Strange Magic

The firing of Secretary of Defense Esper and the recent resignation of Stepford Wife and Queen of Duckspeak and Alternative Facts Kellyanne Conway is just the latest exit from the cauldron of lies and criminal mismanagement that was predicted from the start for a Trump "administration". Only toadies and serious riders and handlers remain--people who have plans for Trump, feed his monstrous ego, and seek to "guide" the loathsome creature toward their own ends while he uses them for his. *The BBC has done a great job in keeping track of the pack....*

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-ca...eporting-story


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> The New York Times!! Give me a break.


I don't trust any media outlet to be 100% bias free, these days. The best way to triangulate the truth is to access a variety of sources across the spectrum of views. Take what's common between them as likely true, and toss out the unsubstantiated.

Any news organization run by a "mogul" with close ties to one side or the other is especially suspect.

Did you look at the other links I posted? The local news in Seattle and Portland? They should have a bit more authority, being closer to the situation than any outside conglomerate.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> I say again, none of these people care about Covid-19 so why collapse your economic system? Something doesn't add up. Biden and company arriving in masks and a few cars for the campaign and *after the win - voila! - no more Covid 19. *


Now that this particular nugget of crazy has proven false, does it cause you to question any of the other bat guano conspiracy theories it's usually packaged with? It should.


----------



## Flamme

Strange Magic said:


> I know you wouldn't post this without some documentation from respected news sources and perhaps input from the FBI or the DHS or a survey of local police statistics. Could you share with us your data on the composition of violent rioters as ''die hard communist anarchists and BLM supporters"? I myself did not know that there was such a common thing as a communist anarchist. My studies of the Russian Revolution indicate that the Communists and the Anarchists did not get along well at all. Ditto Spain during the Spanish Civil War. Perhaps things seem clearer in Change. Eternal.


Well its kinda obvious when you look at portland...I actually researched portland way before trump got elected because I was interested in that region...Its a beautoful city, surrounded by magnificent nature and all but...There was always Aunty Pha violence and sort of...Banditry...A bit like IRA violence in parts of NI...The local gov. was basically BLACKMAILED by a threat of militant ''rebellion'' into making many decisions on how to rule the city...For instance this 2 years ago 



 But local police and DA seem to have a ''catch and release policy'' that sends rioters back to the streets after few days in slammer...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Well its kinda obvious when you look at portland...I actually researched portland way before trump got elected because I was interested in that region...Its a beautoful city, surrounded by magnificent nature and all but...There was always Aunty Pha violence and sort of...Banditry...A bit like IRA violence in parts of NI...The local gov. was basically BLACKMAILED by a threat of militant ''rebellion'' into making many decisions on how to rule the city...For instance this 2 years ago But local police and DA seem to have a ''catch and release policy'' that sends rioters back to the streets after few days in slammer...


you can read some of the accounts of this reporter
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2020/09/23/patriot-coalition-far-right-chat-logs-violence/
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/ame...-activists-spent-last-year-trying-win-police/
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/ame...-right-wing-gang-demasks-left-wing-activists/

BTW, the Russian disinformation operations in Europe are heavily pro-Trump and they try to paint the US protests as far left Antifa and BLM, and do anything to turn the public opinion against Biden and the Democrats. So be careful from where you get you news


----------



## NoCoPilot

Flamme said:


> I actually researched portland way before trump got elected because I was interested in that region...Its a beautoful city, surrounded by magnificent nature and all but...There was always Aunty Pha violence and sort of...Banditry....


Yeah, do me a favor and stay out of my neighborhood. Portland's motto is "Keep Portland Weird" and we'd like to keep it that way.


----------



## Flamme

Dont worry its hobo and junky infested hell hole right now...Wouldnt go if you paid me!!!


----------



## Jacck

what happens in Portland seems to me like the (occasionally) violent clashes between skinheads and anarchists/punkers that we had in my country in the 1990's. (fortunately, both skinheads and anarchists seem to have disappeared now) There are likely two extremist groups that hate each other and are willing to fight each other. Then there are the BLM protests to complicate things. The right-wing media put all the blame on the Antifa/BLM, the left-wing media on the right-wing neofascists. Truth is likely somewhere in the middle.


----------



## Flamme

From what I gathered IT WAS like that until mid 90s, when local ''nazis'' almost ceased to exist on any serious level and city has fallen 100% into hands of various anarchist groups...


----------



## NoCoPilot

You go on believing that. Please.


----------



## CnC Bartok

In the meantime, Moderna done good!


----------



## Flamme

There are some rumours that my country will order Pfizers...But I have read somwehere they need to be kept in special freezers, because in household ones they spoil after 5 days.


----------



## Strange Magic

NoCoPilot said:


> You go on believing that. Please.


We are to take Flamme seriously, (I think) but I still await the documentation from him about the die-hard communist anarchists, etc. We do get a lot of "I think " though, and that's something/anything.


----------



## CnC Bartok

Flamme said:


> There are some rumours that my country will order Pfizers...But I have read somwehere they need to be kept in special freezers, because in household ones they spoil after 5 days.


The Pfizer vaccine requires very low temperatures for storage, -75C, which of course makes distribution a right royal pain in the backside. It seems the Moderna one lasts a month in a standard fridge, and only needs -20 for longer term storage.

Whatever the situation, Pfizer are being offered some STIFF competition :angel:


----------



## Flamme

Strange Magic said:


> We are to take Flamme seriously, (I think) but I still await the documentation from him about the die-hard communist anarchists, etc. We do get a lot of "I think " though, and that's something/anything.


Well these are Some of the lovely faces...Is it a covid impact or just maybelline???

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1326712810152189954


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> . . . That dreadful crone Nancy Pelosi (I've seen more attractive gargoyles on the facade of Sydney University!) . . .


You're probably no beauty queen either. Then again, Pelosi is 80 years old. But I get it. You're making fun of her looks, because misogyny.

But that's a great way to get me on your side, by looks-shaming someone, as though that has anything to do with their abilities or talents.


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Well these are Some of the lovely faces...Is it a covid impact or just maybelline???
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1326712810152189954


how do you know that this "Andy Ngo" is not a Russian operative somewhere from St. Petersburg?
https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo
looking at the content of his twitter account, all he cares about is retweeting radical information against Antifa. Where does he get his information from?


----------



## Flamme

He lives in Portland oregon bro...


----------



## mmsbls

The thread is about a coronavirus vaccine. Please refrain from posts that are not focused on the coronavirus vaccine and especially political posts that have nothing whatsoever to do with the virus.


----------



## Guest

It seems there are many countries which are on the cusp of a Covid-19 vaccine. I'm unsure what common properties they might have, but if they're successful this could speed up the process of vaccinations.


----------



## Jacck

Christabel said:


> It seems there are many countries which are on the cusp of a Covid-19 vaccine. I'm unsure what common properties they might have, but if they're successful this could speed up the process of vaccinations.


vaccines contain microchips and are a population control tool invented by Bill Gates


----------



## Flamme

Sounds far fetched...In my own country, serbia, we have an EXPLOSION of conspiracy theorists, anti vaxxers, all sorts of religious nuts who preach about the end of the world...But did they manage to grasp a grain of truth?


----------



## NoCoPilot

mmsbls said:


> The thread is about a coronavirus vaccine. Please refrain from posts that are not focused on the coronavirus vaccine and especially political posts that have nothing whatsoever to do with the virus.


Thank you for pulling this thread back OT.

The Moderna vaccine is 94.5% effective, in trials of 30,000 volunteers, and unlike the Pfizer vaccine, can be stored in normal refrigeration temperatures and is active for 30 days.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that 20 million doses could be available by year's end. Also 20 million doses of the more-problematic Pfizer vaccine. Forty million doses won't go very far against a world population of 7.6 billion.

It'll be a year or two before the number of immunizations gets to the point that the uncontrolled spread is no longer uncontrolled.


----------



## Flamme

Maybe Musk prepares something of his own brew...


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> It seems there are many countries which are on the cusp of a Covid-19 vaccine. I'm unsure what common properties they might have, but if they're successful this could speed up the process of vaccinations.


All four vaccines that are in stage three trials, as I understand it, work on the same principle. They use tailored mRNA to cause the body to manufacture proteins that mimic the COVID-19 virus, triggering the body's immune response against it.

All four require at least two shots of vaccine, several weeks apart. This makes it closer to the shingles vaccine than the yearly flu vaccine, partly because COVID is a "novel" virus so there is no lingering immunity in the population.

And being a novel virus, it will spread exponentially until stopped. It can be stopped when the majority of the world's population is immune, or if we stop spreading it to each other through close contact with infected individuals.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Jacck said:


> vaccines contain microchips and are a population control tool invented by Bill Gates


To my never-ending horror, statements like this* need* to end with a smiley face or somebody takes them seriously.


----------



## Flamme

I saw some panel of russian scientists who predicted that only in future 2 or 3 years we will develop a ''collective immunity'' as a ''humanity''.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Flamme said:


> Well these are Some of the lovely faces...Is it a covid impact or just maybelline??? ]


Here's clue for you all, nobody worth listening to posts on Twitter.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Flamme said:


> I saw some panel of russian scientists who predicted that only in future 2 or 3 years we will develop a ''collective immunity'' as a ''humanity''.


Don't trust Vlad on science, okay? So-called 'herd immunity' requires at least 70% of a population to be immune -- which is another five BILLION infections -- and nobody knows if it'll even work with a coronavirus. (It doesn't with the flu, which is another form of coronavirus.)

And with 5 billion infections comes that 3% mortality rate.


----------



## pianozach

Flamme said:


> I saw some panel of russian scientists who predicted that only in future 2 or 3 years we will develop a ''collective immunity'' as a ''humanity''.


Merely an educated "guess".

At the moment we don''t even know how long immunity lasts. Will a vaccine create immunity that lasts 10 years? 2 years? 1 year? 4 months?

We're just guessing. Regular flu mutates every year. Sometimes there's more than one strain in a single year.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Regular flu mutates because of flu vaccines. Only mutant strains continue to spread through the population when vaccinated hosts will not pass the regular strain.

Once COVID-19 begins to encounter immune individuals -- there are none now -- mutation should be expected.


----------



## Jacck

Flu is unique in its ability to mutate. I would not compare it to coronavirus.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Mutation is universal in all viruses.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK8439/


----------



## NoCoPilot

Flamme said:


> .In my own country, serbia, we have an EXPLOSION of conspiracy theorists, anti vaxxers, all sorts of religious nuts who preach about the end of the world...But did they manage to grasp a grain of truth?


Simple and short answer: no.


----------



## Jacck

NoCoPilot said:


> Mutation is universal in all viruses.
> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK8439/


flu virus has a unique genome and can change not only through antigenic drift (as most viruses) but also through antigenic shift (which is unique to influenza). This shift is responsible for the pandemics.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm

coronavirus is not influenza, so people should stop making comparisons to influenza


----------



## NoCoPilot

From the article you linked:


> While influenza viruses change all the time due to antigenic drift, antigenic shift happens less frequently. Influenza pandemics occur very rarely; there have been four pandemics in the past 100 years.


My statement stands.


----------



## Jacck

NoCoPilot said:


> From the article you linked:
> 
> My statement stands.


study the genetics of influenza and find out why it mutates constantly. It is about the H and N antigens, that constantly permute and exchange with other strains. So you can make a vaccine against H1N2 strain that was prevalent during the last couple of years, but then suddenly H2N3 appears and vaccination does not protect. Other viruses do not have this ability. That is why vaccinations against those can protect you for a long time, sometimes life long. For example yellow fever vaccine protects people life long
https://www.cdc.gov/yellowfever/vaccine/index.html

coronavirus has unique genome and antigenic structure, as well as unique immune response. It is silly to compare it to influenza.


----------



## NoCoPilot

I'm not going to be drawn into an argument with you because I don't think we fundamentally disagree. At this point, we simply do not know if C-19 will require yearly vaccinations or one lifetime immunity.


----------



## NoCoPilot

The first requirement, of course, is that COVID-19 be recognized as real, and a present danger:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...theyre-dying-from-it-2020-11-16?siteid=yhoof2


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> Flu is unique in its ability to mutate. I would not compare it to coronavirus.


No. Mutating is not unique to "flu".

The coronavirus is mutating.

"Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven't yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, BUT they MIGHT in future." - NATURE.COM

Compared with HIV, SARS-CoV-2 is changing much more slowly as it spreads.

*The coronavirus is mutating - does it matter?
Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven't yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, but they might in future.
*Ewen Callaway
08 SEPTEMBER 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6


----------



## Flamme

I think jacck is a physician...


----------



## NoCoPilot

There is no reason for a mutant strain to gain prominence until a vaccine exists for the original strain.


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> No. Mutating is not unique to "flu".
> 
> The coronavirus is mutating.
> 
> "Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven't yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, BUT they MIGHT in future." - NATURE.COM
> 
> Compared with HIV, SARS-CoV-2 is changing much more slowly as it spreads.
> 
> *The coronavirus is mutating - does it matter?
> Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven't yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, but they might in future.
> *Ewen Callaway
> 08 SEPTEMBER 2020
> 
> https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6


I did not say that other viruses do not mutate. I said that flu virus is unique and mutates much more than other viruses (constantly changes its antigenic structure). The coronavirus of course mutates too, but likely much more slowly and we have not seen any mutation yet, that would change its antigenic structure


----------



## elgar's ghost

NoCoPilot said:


> Thank you for pulling this thread back OT.
> 
> The Moderna vaccine is 94.5% effective, in trials of 30,000 volunteers, and unlike the Pfizer vaccine, can be stored in normal refrigeration temperatures and is active for 30 days.
> 
> That's the good news.
> 
> _The bad news is that 20 million doses could be available by year's end. Also 20 million doses of the more-problematic Pfizer vaccine. Forty million doses won't go very far against a world population of 7.6 billion._
> 
> It'll be a year or two before the number of immunizations gets to the point that the uncontrolled spread is no longer uncontrolled.


It'll be interesting to see how much squabbling there will be as to who should get first dibs if they are proven to be effective beyond doubt, then.


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> It'll be interesting to see how much squabbling there will be as to who should get first dibs if they are proven to be effective beyond doubt, then.


I am pretty sure that it will be healthcare personnel, teachers and the elderly


----------



## elgar's ghost

Jacck said:


> I am pretty sure that it will be healthcare personnel, teachers and the elderly


I like to think so. Which countries will be involved?


----------



## Totenfeier

Jacck said:


> I am pretty sure that it will be healthcare personnel, teachers and the elderly


As a semi-elderly teacher, I like the way you think!


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> I am pretty sure that it will be healthcare personnel, teachers and the elderly





Totenfeier said:


> As a semi-elderly teacher, I like the way you think!


My father died of polio in 1957. Even though he was active military, was not on the priority list for polio vaccine. I wasn't even 1 year old yet.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> My father died of polio in 1957. Even though he was active military, was not on the priority list for polio vaccine. I wasn't even 1 year old yet.


I had a couple of childhood family friends who had polio. They survived but she walked with calipers and he had a withered left arm, and this affected him psychologically for much of his life. My husband had school friends who died from it in Fiji. Back in those days they had 'iron lungs' but you don't hear about them these days. Is that because polio has been eliminated? I'm not sure.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Polo vaccine, Jonas Salk, 1952


----------



## Strange Magic

Polio does still exist, although polio cases have decreased by over 99% since 1988, from an estimated more than 350 000 cases to 22 reported cases in 2017. This reduction is the result of the global effort to eradicate the disease. ... There is no cure for polio, it can only be prevented.

World Health Organization


----------



## NoCoPilot

1938, not 1988.


----------



## DaveM

1988, not 1938.


----------



## CnC Bartok

I hope this helps the anti-vaccine fools find a quantum of common sense...


----------



## Jacck

CnC Bartok said:


> View attachment 146096
> 
> 
> I hope this helps the anti-vaccine fools find a quantum of common sense...


before vaccination programs and the era of antibiotics, infections were the No.1 cause of death, not heart diseases and cancer as it is now. Just remember all the composers we lost due to infections. And everybody is scared about what happens when antibiotics stop working due to resistence, as is already happening with some bugs


----------



## Jacck

NoCoPilot said:


> The first requirement, of course, is that COVID-19 be recognized as real, and a present danger:
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...theyre-dying-from-it-2020-11-16?siteid=yhoof2


https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/17/us/coronavirus-midwest-northern-governors/index.html

I understand when some gullible uneducated poor people who believe that the Earth is flat, dont believe in coronavirus. But I find it surprising in elected officials. Many states all over the world have proven that the masks do work and stop the spread of the virus. I also dont understand the false dilemma either the economy or coronavirus. Without stoping the virus, the economy will suffer. And masks do not interfere with the economy. It was a criminal mistake to make mask wearing political and another issue in the culture war.


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## NoCoPilot

DaveM said:


> 1988, not 1938.


By golly you're right. I thought the Wikipedia article was a misprint. I had no idea polio was still so prevalent outside the US as recently as 1988. That's shameful, when there's an effective vaccine.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Jacck said:


> I also dont understand the false dilemma either the economy or coronavirus. Without stoping the virus, the economy will suffer. And masks do not interfere with the economy.


Indeed, it's a false dichotomy. Some businesses will suffer during a quarantine -- restaurants, bars, gyms, churches -- but others, like online retailers and grocery stores, will shuffle right along. If a business is bankrupted by a quarantine, it can be restarted after it's safe to do so (with a little government aid). People who die of the COVID, they cannot be restarted.

Respect for science has been on the decline for fifty years. It reached a high during the moon landings, I think. Since then we've had Big Tobacco telling us smoking doesn't cause cancer, Big Oil telling us carbon emissions don't cause global warming, Big Food telling us fast food is healthy. We have anti-vaccine misinformation, we got Hummers (8 mpg) during the gas shortage, we have Big Pharma advertising prescription-only pills to the public. Well, the bills are coming due from all this foolishness. The Earth is infected with stoopid, and is going to shed some virus (that's us) whether we like it or not.


----------



## Strange Magic

NoCoPilot said:


> By golly you're right. I thought the Wikipedia article was a misprint. I had no idea polio was still so prevalent outside the US as recently as 1988. That's shameful, when there's an effective vaccine.


Pakistan, that unhappy playland of religious frenzy, was one of the last sanctuaries for polio. Various religious and tribal groups preached that polio vaccination was yet another plot of some kind, and even recently vaccinators sent in were murdered in remote villages.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/worl...cember-2012/story-7nt0hXxatmuGNwrFe2wCsJ.html


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## SixFootScowl

CnC Bartok said:


> View attachment 146096
> 
> 
> I hope this helps the anti-vaccine fools find a quantum of common sense...


Many who are opposed to vaccines are not fools. In fact they are smart to realize that there are two sides to most any story. For example,
https://apnews.com/article/7d8b0e32efd0480fbd12acf27729f6a5


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## Jacck

NoCoPilot said:


> Indeed, it's a false dichotomy. Some businesses will suffer during a quarantine -- restaurants, bars, gyms, churches -- but others, like online retailers and grocery stores, will shuffle right along. If a business is bankrupted by a quarantine, it can be restarted after it's safe to do so (with a little government aid). People who die of the COVID, they cannot be restarted. Respect for science has been on the decline for fifty years. It reached a high during the moon landings, I think. Since then we've had Big Tobacco telling us smoking doesn't cause cancer, Big Oil telling us carbon emissions don't cause global warming, Big Food telling us fast food is healthy. We have anti-vaccine misinformation, we got Hummers (8 mpg) during the gas shortage, we have Big Pharma advertising prescription-only pills to the public. Well, the bills are coming due from all this foolishness. The Earth is infected with stoopid, and is going to shed some virus (that's us) whether we like it or not.


Western democracies underestimated the stealthy spread of various cranky conspiracy theories in alternative media and how internet is going to make the problem so much worse and how vulnerable the open information societies are to foreign interference (information warfare). And this is the result
Delusional COVID Truthers Try to Invade Hospital Where This Mom Died Too Soon


----------



## NoCoPilot

SixFootScowl said:


> Many who are opposed to vaccines are not fools.


No, they're just mathematically illiterate.

In 2020 there have been 655 cases of cVDPV, circulating vaccine-derived polio virus. There have been 133 cases of WPV wild polio virus. In 2019 those numbers were 176 and 378. The "wild" virus has been declared *officially eradicated* in Africa, due to the vaccine.

Compare to 1988, when there were 350,000 cases of wild virus.

Is this progress? Yes it is.

The only reason cVDPV outnumbers WPV is that *WPV has been essentially wiped out*. Yes, there's a small problem with the vaccine, which they're working on fixing, but that's a tiny tiny percentage compared to the good it's done.

Anti-vaxxers always cite the extraordinarily-rare complications as justification for ignoring the science that 99-point-something of vaccines work flawlessly. That's just math illiteracy.


----------



## Flamme

Strange Magic said:


> Pakistan, that unhappy playland of religious frenzy, was one of the last sanctuaries for polio. Various religious and tribal groups preached that polio vaccination was yet another plot of some kind, and even recently vaccinators sent in were murdered in remote villages.
> 
> https://www.hindustantimes.com/worl...cember-2012/story-7nt0hXxatmuGNwrFe2wCsJ.html


Yeah, as far as I know, in whole that region of countries, pakistan, afghanista, bangladesh, there are continuous attacks on medical personnel that administers vaccines by talibans, al qaeda and islamic state...Such civilized people and some want to import their view of the world into western world...


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## NoCoPilot

I’m reminded of a scene in “Apocalypse Now” (director’s cut) where doctors vaccinated a village’s children against MMR, and the next morning they found a pile of little kids arms outside their tent. The village elders in their wisdom had amputated every single kid that had been vaccinated. That’s what suspicion of science gets you: a generation of one armed kids.


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## Guest

Flamme said:


> Yeah, as far as I know, in whole that region of countries, pakistan, afghanista, bangladesh, there are continuous attacks on medical personnel that administers vaccines by talibans, al qaeda and islamic state...Such civilized people and some want to import their view of the world into western world...


These nations which are suspicious of doctors and vaccinations and see it as a plot of some kind; the reason they don't want them there is because they alone want to control the people. They want to use anti-science to control just the same as in developed nations we see the opposite; science used to control the people. The fear of Covid-19 is one such example; run, run to your houses because the 'experts' tell us you're in fear for your lives...!! It's the other side of the same coin.

Also, we are told we have to 'listen to the scientists' and that 'the science is settled' (as if such a thing were possible!). Except for *biological science*. That's to be ignored because we now have circa 30 genders - which are, after all, merely social constructs.


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## pianozach

Christabel said:


> These nations which are suspicious of doctors and vaccinations and see it as a plot of some kind; the reason they don't want them there is because they alone want to control the people. They want to use anti-science to control just the same as in developed nations we see the opposite; science used to control the people. The fear of Covid-19 is one such example; run, run to your houses because the 'experts' tell us you're in fear for your lives...!! It's the other side of the same coin.
> 
> Also, we are told we have to 'listen to the scientists' and that 'the science is settled' (as if such a thing were possible!). Except for *biological science*. That's to be ignored because we now have circa *30 genders - which are, after all, merely social constructs.*


I think that referring to "Gender Identities" as mere "social constructs" comes across as a rather dismissive or sarcastic claim.

I'm guessing that was intentional on your part.


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## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> These nations which are suspicious of doctors and vaccinations and see it as a plot of some kind; the reason they don't want them there is because they alone want to control the people. They want to use anti-science to control just the same as in developed nations we see the opposite; science used to control the people. The fear of Covid-19 is one such example; run, run to your houses because the 'experts' tell us you're in fear for your lives...!! It's the other side of the same coin.


Except science and anti-science are not comparable. That's another false equivalency. Remember above where *Strange Magic* mentioned Pakistan was one of the last reservoirs of polio on the planet? Or sub-Saharan Africa where the infant mortality rate is sky high? Where cholera and other ailments of sanitation run rampant? Beyond disease, how many men have Third World nations put on the moon? How many life-saving inventions? How many great dams or canals to improve the lives of their people?

There's a term for places where religion rules the government. They're called "failed states."



Christabel said:


> Also, we are told we have to 'listen to the scientists' and that 'the science is settled' (as if such a thing were possible!).


It is, and it does.



Christabel said:


> Except for *biological science*. That's to be ignored because we now have circa 30 genders - which are, after all, merely social constructs.


What the heck does THAT have to do with anything? You have issues here???


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## Strange Magic

Could someone (Christabel) provide the list of 30 genders? I also enjoyed the balancing and equating of the anti-science of religious fanatics with the Ayatollahs of Science seeking to control The People. Tell it to Fauci! This is great material; is there more?


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## NoCoPilot

Here you go:
https://www.healthline.com/health/different-genders#a-d


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## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> Here you go:
> https://www.healthline.com/health/different-genders#a-d


That isn't science, which is precisely my point. Science is used, when convenient, as part of an ideology and discarded when it doesn't suit. Apart from a miniscule number of *hermaphrodites, it is possible scientifically to say when a child is a boy or a girl. It is NOT a social construct. *Actually, examination of DNA etc. might even establish a dominant gender for these today.

The "science is settled" with cigarette smoking, for example? Cigarettes can kill; same as motor vehicles and electricity. BUT not all people who smoke will die of lung cancer etc. There are many degrees of harm in cigarette smoking, not all resulting in death. The director Billy Wilder was a heavy smoker and lived well into his 90s and, of course, I know others who've smoked for years and who had a long life. Conversely, when I was having breast cancer treatment 2 years ago there was a 24 year old woman in there, with a one year old child, who was terminally ill with lung cancer. She'd never smoked at all. Science needs to be incorporated with common sense.

So, the 'settled science' on cigarettes needs to specifically state that it '*can* be harmful to health'. In Australia smoking is regarded akin to a death sentence. In the modern world science is used as a tool to manipulate the people, through fear. A modicum of fear is essential to preserve life, but hysteria is counter-productive.


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## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Could someone (Christabel) provide the list of 30 genders? I also enjoyed the balancing and equating of the anti-science of religious fanatics with the Ayatollahs of Science seeking to control The People. Tell it to Fauci! This is great material; is there more?


A bit disturbing to think of nuance and complexity when you're wedded to a one-shoe-fits all ideology, I guess, and you're trusting the state to take care of you. Science used to terrify and control the masses. Rush to your houses..... this is "War of the Worlds" Mark 2. More HG Wells than Orson. "The long, dark winter....."

Covid-19. Rampant in the USA with the highest levels of diabetes, heart disease, HBP and other dietary-related diseases. Killing the over 60s cohort (as will most other things). Panic. Terror. All the government's fault. I recommend weight loss and exercise, social distancing and other preventive measures. And I've wondered whether Covid-19 is so bad in Europe because of the cold (the virus loves the cold) and the high levels of cigarette smoking found in those populations, since Covid 19 attacks the lungs. No doubt some information will gradually filter through about that, in time.

When the vaccine becomes available people can CALMLY take it up as and when needed and absolutely nobody needs to panic.

Meantime, we could re-make this!! Wonderful metaphor:


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## Roger Knox

NoCoPilot said:


> By golly you're right. I thought the Wikipedia article was a misprint. I had no idea polio was still so prevalent outside the US as recently as 1988. That's shameful, when there's an effective vaccine.


I once herd a speaker from a service club that was raising money to wipe out polio. The problem is war. There are "minor" wars going on that we don't hear about. They stop vaccination programs that would otherwise be effective.


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## bz3

The science is settled. There's close to a 99% survival rate for Covid-19 and the novel mRNA vaccines being produced to 'innoculate' against this disease are untested and nobody knows what the side effects will be since we've never vaccinated anybody with these types of things before. If you disagree you're a science denier. The science has spoken.


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## adriesba

Update on the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...er-and-biontech-update-their-promising-result


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## Roger Knox

pianozach said:


> My father died of polio in 1957. Even though he was active military, was not on the priority list for polio vaccine. I wasn't even 1 year old yet.


I am very sorry to hear that. Your family would have had to very brave in the wake of that tragic event. In my area, I was involved with the March of Dimes for many years. During that time I met polio survivors and heard many stories. Developing the Salk vaccine was not a simple matter. And after it was developed there were still bumps in the road. Deliberate spreading of misinformation is still a problem.


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## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Apart from a miniscule number of *hermaphrodites, it is possible scientifically to say when a child is a boy or a girl. It is NOT a social construct.


Holy smokes. You haven't done a lot of research, have you?

A word of advice: leave the science to scientists.


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## NoCoPilot

bz3 said:


> The science is settled. There's close to a 99% survival rate for Covid-19 and the novel mRNA vaccines being produced to 'innoculate' against this disease are untested and nobody knows what the side effects will be since we've never vaccinated anybody with these types of things before. If you disagree you're a science denier. The science has spoken.


Where are you getting your data? The survival rate is 97.6%, as of this evening. That's pretty good, but still worth a pause when you do the math: if everybody in the world gets COVID, that means *182,400,000 of us will die.*

Yes, the "rushed-to-market" COVID vaccine has not undergone long-term, large-scale testing. There may well be a small percentage of side effects (as with most vaccines). However, mRNA vaccines are not entirely new or novel, and the 3-month study has been extremely promising; The side effects were "minor and manageable."

Don't let a tiny chance of a manageable side effect deter you from participating, when you get the chance.

There is SO MUCH really bad -- misleading, false, & totally WRONG -- information being circulated that citizens must be on the alert for disinformation aimed at us from malign actors. Sad to say, but most of this BS comes from Russia and Iran.


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## pianozach

Strange Magic said:


> Could someone (Christabel) provide the list of 30 genders? I also enjoyed the balancing and equating of the anti-science of religious fanatics with the Ayatollahs of Science seeking to control The People. Tell it to Fauci! This is great material; is there more?


Saying that someone is claiming that there are 30+ genders now is a snarky comment that is a gross over-simplification of the results of an Australian sex survey.

It seems that researchers at *The Queensland University of Technology* (QUT) has listed a whopping 33 options under the question *"Which of the following terms do you feel best describes your gender?"*.

https://www.lifehacker.com.au/2020/...recognised-by-the-2016-australian-sex-survey/

A quick perusal of the list and definitions of each term will lead one to conclude that these are merely choices on a survey, and not a list of the "33 new gender assignments". They simply go beyond "LGBTQ+" labels in favor of more descriptive shadings of sexuality and gender identity. Some are merely different names for the same thing.


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## NoCoPilot

Gender is a fraught subject, particularly among those who aren't binary. Personally, I welcome the idea that some women like to turn wrenches, and some men are dress designers. Women who sleep with men and women who sleep with women, it's all on the spectrum that makes mankind so wonderful and fascinating.

I hope we never have to go back to Humphrey Bogart days.


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## Strange Magic

Unhappily, Christabel has been denied access to vital information concerning the COVID outbreak in the USA, as is clear from her breezy near-dismissal (bz3's also) of the havoc caused to our American healthcare delivery system due to COVID. Many localities and states report saturated hospital capacities and loss of both staff numbers and sheer emotional breakdown of staff. Many hospitals have instituted deferrals of service or denials of service for any sort of elective surgery, or otherwise sent ill people away to find help elsewhere (if they can). Perhaps the cause is science and scientists run amok here--we do have the illustrious Dr. (of something) Scott Atlas urging the citizens of Michigan to "rise up" against the sort of brutal oppression so obvious to critics of having epidemiological experts guide policy. The happy island of Australia has so far kept the virus at bay by rigorous exclusion of outsiders, even people traveling from one state to another. I'm sure Christabel's voice is loudest crying Uhuru!, Freedom! in the Land Down Under.

I enjoyed the near-defense of cigarettes--I'll make a note of Billy Wilder's longevity--a key anecdote! And, of course, reference to yet another YouTube to watch. So there was more material! And surely yet more to come.


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## NoCoPilot




----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Unhappily, Christabel has been denied access to vital information concerning the COVID outbreak in the USA, as is clear from her breezy near-dismissal (bz3's also) of the havoc caused to our American healthcare delivery system due to COVID. Many localities and states report saturated hospital capacities and loss of both staff numbers and sheer emotional breakdown of staff. Many hospitals have instituted deferrals of service or denials of service for any sort of elective surgery, or otherwise sent ill people away to find help elsewhere (if they can). Perhaps the cause is science and scientists run amok here--we do have the illustrious Dr. (of something) Scott Atlas urging the citizens of Michigan to "rise up" against the sort of brutal oppression so obvious to critics of having epidemiological experts guide policy. The happy island of Australia has so far kept the virus at bay by rigorous exclusion of outsiders, even people traveling from one state to another. I'm sure Christabel's voice is loudest crying Uhuru!, Freedom! in the Land Down Under.
> 
> I enjoyed the near-defense of cigarettes--I'll make a note of Billy Wilder's longevity--a key anecdote! And, of course, reference to yet another YouTube to watch. So there was more material! And surely yet more to come.


The Covid info is available freely. Look at the stats on 'life expectancy' in the USA and co-morbidities (which I've provided before from your CDC). Yes, people are dying before their end date because of Covid but I see no statistics which tell of people in their younger years dropping like flies. You refuse to accept the widely-recognized fact of health problems in Americans which make them highly susceptible to Covid-19. I guess if there's an opportunity cost to poor health choices then Covid-19 is it!!

And terrifying the people, instilling them with fear, is never the answer. Make good health choices, take precautions and you will survive the pandemic much better than anybody 65 years or over. We have closed borders in Australia and governments controlling our every movement; they really do enjoy this power. This is a major concern. In Australia we have people in one state, Western Australia, telling their fellow Australians they don't want them in their state because they will 'bring the disease'. Yep, that's the community spirit. Government's job is to make sure there are resources available as and when needed for those most in need. That might mean no warehousing of the elderly in care homes. Oh, wait....

It's very difficult to provide any new ideas when somebody is consumed by ideology and has a limited life experience and world view as you do - and is unable to see complexity. I am yet to hear one medical expert suggest that a healthy lifestyle and good exercise regimes will help in the fight against Coronavirus (any) - especially when it's going to be around for the longer haul. Why? Because it's not politically expedient; people want the government to fix all their problems and they won't be denied their right to feel this way. Be proactive: take good care of your health, socially distance, keep clean hands and live your life. Otherwise, there's no quality of life anyway.

Your flippant tone tells me it doesn't seriously concern you either. All good. You conveniently misunderstood the comment about cigarettes and 'the science is settled' and this is to be expected. There is no blanket death sentence. If there is I'm assuming you're not venturing out in an automobile any time soon.

Disclaimer: I'm in the most vulnerable age cohort, but I'm not about to sit down and be frightened silly. We were told in March that our quarantines were to 'flatten the curve'. That has morphed almost immediately into lockdowns, cessation of our economy as well as social isolation, suicide and depression. I would trust the government as I would adders fanged.


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## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> You refuse to accept the widely-recognized fact of health problems in Americans which make them highly susceptible to Covid-19.


EVERYONE is susceptible to COVID-19. It is what's called a novel coronavirus, meaning nobody has any immunity.

What you meant to say is that people with pre-existing health problems and co-morbidities are prone to greater complications and worse outcomes from a COVID-19 infection.



Christabel said:


> And terrifying the people, instilling them with fear, is never the answer. Make good health choices, take precautions and you will survive the pandemic much better than anybody 65 years or over.


Most of us have no control over our age.

And a healthy fear of something that can kill you -- or your grandpop, if you bring it home -- is just good common sense.



Christabel said:


> It's very difficult to provide any new ideas when somebody is consumed by ideology and has a limited life experience and world view and is unable to see complexity.


Back atcha.



Christabel said:


> I am yet to hear one medical expert suggest that a healthy lifestyle and good exercise regimes will help in the fight against Coronavirus (any) - especially when it's going to be around for the longer haul.


As I said to SixFootScowl, your lack of data does not make you an expert. If you have "yet to hear" you're not paying attention.


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## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> EVERYONE is susceptible to COVID-19. It is what's called a novel coronavirus, meaning nobody has any immunity.
> 
> What you meant to say is that people with pre-existing health problems and co-morbidities are prone to greater complications and worse outcomes from a COVID-19 infection.
> 
> Most of us have no control over our age.
> 
> And a healthy fear of something that can kill you -- or your grandpop, if you bring it home -- is just good common sense.
> 
> Back atcha.
> 
> As I said to SixFootScowl, your lack of data does not make you an expert. If you have "yet to hear" you're not paying attention.


Sigh. Look at the STATISTICS/DATA of the number of people who catch Covid-19 and who *DIE* FROM IT. You'll find the percentage/s VERY SMALL. But please don't let facts get in the way of hand-wringing. Novel means 'NEW'. We do NOT KNOW what people have or have not immunity - I mean, _apart from children - especially very small children_. And quite a few people who respond positively to Covid-19 testing exhibit zero symptoms whatsoever.

I won't continue to discuss this in a fact-free environment.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> That isn't science, which is precisely my point. Science is used, when convenient, as part of an ideology and discarded when it doesn't suit. Apart from a miniscule number of *hermaphrodites, it is possible scientifically to say when a child is a boy or a girl. It is NOT a social construct. *Actually, examination of DNA etc. might even establish a dominant gender for these today.


In about 99.5% of cases a child's gender is obvious upon birth and never has to be reconsidered. For about 0.5% gender is not clear. They may have genital organs which are undeveloped, have attributes of both, may present as one gender and develop as the opposite gender. They may simply feel that they are not the gender that was assigned to them.

There is no unambiguous biological differentiator. Classically and XX chromosome results in female and XY in male development. The Y chromosome does not directly result in male development, it contains a signal which trigger other genes which result in male development. A person can be XY and develop as female if the signal or the signal receptor gene are defective. A person can be XX and male if the the signal gene transfers to an X chromosome. A person can have other configurations, XXY, XYY, XXYY, etc.

To claim that gender is simple and biologically clear is to deny the reality of those 0.5% of people with gender complications, and destroy their lives in the name of ideological simplicity. The humane thing is to recognize the existence of complexity and help people on the borderline to live the best lives they can.


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## Guest

Countries that have a worse death rate per million than the USA are: Belgium, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, UK, Italy, and Chile


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## NoCoPilot

One million three hundred and fifty-four thousand eight hundred and two.

Yes, it's a small percentage. But that's still *a huge number of deaths.*

From a single PREVENTABLE cause.


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## Guest

Baron Scarpia said:


> In about 99.5% of cases a child's gender is obvious upon birth and never has to be reconsidered. For about 0.5% gender is not clear. They may have genital organs which are undeveloped, have attributes of both, may present as one gender and develop as the opposite gender. They may simply feel that they are not the gender that was assigned to them.
> 
> There is no unambiguous biological differentiator. Classically and XX chromosome results in female and XY in male development. The Y chromosome does not directly result in male development, it contains a signal which trigger other genes which result in male development. A person can be XY and develop as female if the signal or the signal receptor gene are defective. A person can be XX and male if the the signal gene transfers to an X chromosome. A person can have other configurations, XXY, XYY, XXYY, etc.
> 
> To claim that gender is simple and biological clear is to deny the reality of those 0.5% of people with gender complications, and destroy their lives in the name of ideological simplicity. The humane thing is to recognize the existence of complexity and help people on the borderline to live the best lives they can.


What you've written is information that is well known already. But to suggest gender is a social construction is to damage the welfare/identity of young children/adolescents who may be unsure about their sexuality and are told not to worry, it's a free-for-all of social constructivism. Sorry, but that's just a dumb answer to a complex, extremely minor issue which is - like most SJW frolics - creating more problems than those being solved. It isn't compassion to teach people this, just recklessness.

Scientists claim that gender is biologically clear, but apparently that branch of science is redundant; specifically that in the vast, vast majority of cases it is possible to tell a boy baby from a girl baby. University social science departments have created a massive 'solution' to a largely non-problem. And it most definitely is not based on any kind of 'science'.


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## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> One million three hundred and fifty-four thousand eight hundred and two.
> 
> Yes, it's a small percentage. But that's still *a huge number of deaths.*
> 
> From a single PREVENTABLE cause.


Tell us, please, how we can prevent it apart from the significant health-improving measures I've already mentioned and which can be adopted without cost to the individual.

Yes, it's a 'lot' of people - but I wonder how many die per annum from strokes, cancer, heart disease, other degenerative disorders, road accidents. What I'd like to see is a chart which shows overall deaths from all causes and whether, in fact, some of those people with Covid-19 die WITH the disease rather than FROM the disease. Complexity; surplus to requirement.


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## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> I would trust the government as I would adders fanged.


I don't know about YOUR government, but with MINE that's good advice.


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## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Tell us, please, how we can prevent it apart from the significant health-improving measures I've already mentioned.


Masks. Social distancing. Quarantining when necessary. I assume you've seen the flyers.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> Sigh. Look at the STATISTICS/DATA of the number of people who catch Covid-19 and who *DIE* FROM IT. You'll find the percentage/s VERY SMALL. But please don't let facts get in the way of hand-wringing. Novel means 'NEW'. We do NOT KNOW what people have or have not immunity - I mean, _apart from children - especially very small children_. And quite a few people who respond positively to Covid-19 testing exhibit zero symptoms whatsoever.
> 
> I won't continue to discuss this in a fact-free environment.


About 1 in 150 people who contract Covid-19 die. A much larger fraction require hospitalization. It is extremely contagious and in the absence of distancing or other strong measures it would be expected to infect more than half the population within a year. Cities in the U.S. which have had large outbreaks have had their hospital ICU's overwhelmed, and have had to order refrigerated trucks to handle morgue overflow. This has happened even in the presence of partial shutdowns and distancing measures. Covid-19 is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S., after heart disease and cancer, even with partial distance in effect. Without distancing and other measures epidemiological predict it would be the leading cause of death. To deny the seriousness of this outbreak is to deny facts.


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## Guest

Ah, so you (post #242) haven't read what I've written previously. I thought as much.

I don't need to convince you; that's the beauty of it. I'm sorry that your people are apparently dying in droves, but I would like those statistics I mentioned in a previous comment. Meanwhile, as a cancer survivor, I'm certainly not about to live my years in fear of the 'lurgie'.


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## Guest

Baron Scarpia said:


> About 1 in 150 people who contract Covid-19 die. A much larger fraction require hospitalization. It is extremely contagious and in the absence of distancing or other strong measures it would be expected to infect more than half the population within a year. Cities in the U.S. which have had large outbreaks have had their hospital ICU's overwhelmed, and have had to order refrigerated trucks to handle morgue overflow. This has happened even in the presence of partial shutdowns and distancing measures. Covid-19 is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S., after heart disease and cancer, even with partial distance in effect. Without distancing and other measures epidemiological predict it would be the leading cause of death. To deny the seriousness of this outbreak is to deny facts.


I'm not denying the seriousness of any mortal illness. I'm suggesting people who've been reckless with their health are particularly susceptible and that, to avoid catching it yourself, you need to take those additional measures to remain healthy. Americans generally are not healthy, compared to most of the developed world. I repeat, 'the opportunity cost of poor lifestyle choice is Covid-19'. That doesn't mean everybody who catches it and dies is in that category, but I'd like to know the links between co-morbidities and Covid-19 deaths. And I don't think that's unreasonable, because those statistics might be the place that provides hope. That and a vaccine - depending on its efficacy across the population and the willingness of people to vaccinate. It's a complex issue - not one warranting hysteria and fear.

You say that half the population would catch Covid-19 within a year without 'strong measures'. I'm presuming you've overlooked the fact that children are largely not affected and, indeed, it isn't known if they're even carriers. So, put more succinctly, "half the adult population" might be nearer - even then, I doubt it.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> Yes, it's a 'lot' of people - but I wonder how many die per annum from strokes, cancer, heart disease, other degenerative disorders, road accidents. What I'd like to see is a chart which shows overall deaths from all causes and whether, in fact, some of those people with Covid-19 die WITH the disease rather than FROM the disease. Complexity; surplus to requirement.


In a year, in the U.S., about 600,000 die of heart disease, about 600,000 die of cancer. We are currently recording 1,500 deaths per day from Covid. That extrapolates to about 550,000 per year (if the rate were constant). It is rising sharply and some health authorities are predicting it will reach 3,000 per day. That would mean a Covid-19 death rate roughly equal to heart disease and cancer combined.

Now explain how the is not a big deal.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Don't live "in fear." Live smart.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> I'm suggesting people who've been reckless with their health are particularly susceptible and that, to avoid catching it yourself, you need to take those additional measures to remain healthy.


Those of us who are obese and have high blood pressure cannot magically 'become healthy' to avoid COVID. For us, masks and social distancing and washing hands is our best defense.



Christabel said:


> You say that half the population would catch Covid-19 within a year without 'strong measures'. I'm presuming you've overlooked the fact that children are largely not affected and, indeed, it isn't known if they're even carriers. So, put more succinctly, "half the adult population" might be nearer - even then, I doubt it.


Latest research indicates children harbor the virus, and can pass it along -- even though their robust immune systems mostly prevent symptoms.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> You say that half the population would catch Covid-19 within a year without 'strong measures'. I'm presuming you've overlooked the fact that children are largely not affected and, indeed, it isn't known if they're even carriers. So, put more succinctly, "half the adult population" might be nearer - even then, I doubt it.


The mortality rate of 1 in 150 integrates over all age groups, including children. This is established using random antibody testing. In the state of New York 33,000 deaths were recorded. Random antibody testing indicated that 14% of the population had been exposed to the disease. 14% of the population of 20 million is 2.8 million. 33,000 deaths from 2,800,000 infections, that is about 1.2%. That is somewhat below the consensus value of 0.7% mortality, suggesting infections were underestimated even with random testing. (The tests are not perfect.) Even if they have trouble sampling children, will that make a big difference? Asymptomatic infected children would invariably spread the infection through the household, so that infection rate of adults would mirror that of children.

And again, this is the outcome with strong distancing measures. The infection rate was growing exponentially until the distancing measures were imposed. If the curve had not deflected down when distancing was put in place it was on course to hit full infection in a year.


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## NoCoPilot

Mask mandates aren't to protect YOU. You're certainly free to take as many risks as you want.

Mask mandates are to prevent infected individuals, who don't KNOW they're infected (7-14 day incubation period), from spreading the virus to OTHERS.

Don't live "in fear." Live "in respect for others."


----------



## Strange Magic

Left out completely from Christabel's usually penetrating analysis from her remote island fastness is any discussion of the increasing dysfunction of the distribution of goods and services in America among its citizens, due to decades of retrograde government. This stems from many sources, including decades of growing income and net worth inequality, racial injustice and bigotry, the growth of Ayn Randian/_laissez faire_ economic theory married to religious fundamentalism, non-stop saturation of Talk Radio, cable, and social media with Right propaganda, and ever-rising gun ownership.

All these result in many of the co-morbidities killing so many non-rich, non-white Americans (along with an alarming rise in gun deaths from suicide). The recently-repudiated US administration was responsible for the continuation and exacerbation of these problems, then coupled those failures with the utter collapse of a coherent and effective program of public education, mask wearing, social distancing, and rigorous contact tracing and testing to contain the coronavirus pandemic. One gathers, though, from Christabel's posting that she endorses many of the factors (other than people feeding themselves better and exercising more) that promote those co-morbidities here in the USA.


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> Tell us, please, how we can prevent it apart from the significant health-improving measures I've already mentioned and which can be adopted without cost to the individual.
> 
> Yes, it's a 'lot' of people - but I wonder how many die per annum from strokes, cancer, heart disease, other degenerative disorders, road accidents. What I'd like to see is a chart which shows overall deaths from all causes and whether, in fact, some of those people with Covid-19 die WITH the disease rather than FROM the disease. Complexity; surplus to requirement.


Here's an interactive animated graph, although it only covers the period this year from 3/21 to 11/21. It would be interesting to see it extend back to the 1400s.

I'll try embedding it, but I'll include the URL for the website and a direct link to the chart as well.

https://www.wmur.com/article/coronavirus-leading-causes-of-death-in-the-united-states/32380058#

https://infogram.com/1p6klxed3qzgrjb5yg7p3xrpvpb3nmvvlw3

Obviously there was a time, like 200 years ago when Cancer wasn't such a big killer. That's because people didn't generally live long enough for that to kill them. They were far more likely to die from an infection, bacterial or viral.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> Masks. Social distancing. Quarantining when necessary. I assume you've seen the flyers.


*The Anti-Mask League of 1919: The Cultural Battle of an Enduring Pandemic
*
On the morning of January 25th, 1919, an advertisement ran in The San Fransisco Chronicle promoting an "anti-mask meeting" at the Dreamland Roller Rink later that night. The admission free meeting had the self-proclaimed intent of protesting "against the unhealthy mask ordinance" that required citizens of San Francisco to wear masks in an effort to combat the influenza pandemic (also known as the Spanish Flu). It was but one example of the larger cultural dispute that swept throughout the United States as the health crisis continued into its second year. With this in mind, the story of the anti-mask league is insightful as the U.S (New York included) navigates the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting how public opinion about a city's policies can change over the course of a health crisis. . . .

The rest of the article: https://untappedcities.com/2020/07/...-the-cultural-battle-of-an-enduring-pandemic/


----------



## NoCoPilot

That's one reason (a major one) why the 1918 Infuenza Pandemic lasted 26 months and killed as many as 50 million people.

Unfortunately, that was too long ago for the lesson to still be current for those who don't read.


----------



## Jacck

NoCoPilot said:


> That's one reason (a major one) why the 1918 Infuenza Pandemic lasted 26 months and killed as many as 50 million people.
> 
> Unfortunately, that was too long ago for the lesson to still be current for those who don't read.


yes, lessons tend to be forgotten. As soon as the generations who remember it die out, the memories and experiences are fading till they are gone. But I am even more worried about people who remember WW2 dying out. Their memories and experiences were immunizing Europe against resurgence of ring-wing fascism. Recent events show that the lessons are already starting to be forgotten.


----------



## Flamme




----------



## Guest

I just heard on our morning news service here in Australia that, when surveyed, hundreds of people said they WOULD NOT be taking up the government's offer of a vaccine for Covid-19. That could become a trap for unwary governments which will spend vast amounts on a vaccine which could end up being a flop. It's also revealing about how many people think they're really likely to die of Covid-19. 

Come back in a couple of years and we can talk about the devastating, prolonged opportunity costs of this pandemic. We won't be able to talk over the shrill noise and complaints, I'm betting.


----------



## annaw

Christabel said:


> I just heard on our morning news service here in Australia that, when surveyed, hundreds of people said they WOULD NOT be taking up the government's offer of a vaccine for Covid-19. That could become a trap for unwary governments which will spend vast amounts on a vaccine which could end up being a flop. It's also revealing about how many people think they're really likely to die of Covid-19.
> 
> Come back in a couple of years and we can talk about the devastating, prolonged opportunity costs of this pandemic. We won't be able to talk over the shrill noise and complaints, I'm betting.


I wonder what survey it was... you have 25 million people in Australia and a few hundred is a small percentage. Whether people think they're likely to die of Covid-19 doesn't really matter - there have been perfectly healthy teenagers and young people who have developed a severe Covid-19.


----------



## NoCoPilot

I'd like to think it's "Darwinism at work" except the stoopid anti-vaxxers are likely to pass the virus on to friends and family members who may be higher up on the evolutionary scale.


----------



## Luchesi

NoCoPilot said:


> Those of us who are obese and have high blood pressure cannot magically 'become healthy' to avoid COVID. For us, masks and social distancing and washing hands is our best defense.
> 
> Latest research indicates children harbor the virus, and can pass it along -- even though their robust immune systems mostly prevent symptoms.


Cats too. Very troubling.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


>


A lot is being made of the need for -80 C storage of the mRNA vaccine. It is not as exotic as it sounds. Every biology lab has a row of refrigeration units, +4C, -20C, -80C. It is a standard product, although the need to make more of them in a hurry could be a bottleneck










They are expensive, and a pain to work with, since whenever you open the door it immediately starts filling up with ice.


----------



## NoCoPilot

And a couple billion doses takes up some space.


----------



## Open Book

NoCoPilot said:


> That's one reason (a major one) why the 1918 Infuenza Pandemic lasted 26 months and killed as many as 50 million people.
> 
> Unfortunately, that was too long ago for the lesson to still be current for those who don't read.


Is it known what happened to the Spanish flu virus? After infecting and killing so many people did it burn itself out and go extinct? Or is it still out there in isolated pockets? If extinct, is this because survivors had immunity, either attained from exposure or because they were simply more genetically resistant to the virus's worst effects in the first place?


----------



## Roger Knox

NoCoPilot said:


> That's one reason (a major one) why the 1918 Infuenza Pandemic lasted 26 months and killed as many as 50 million people.
> 
> Unfortunately, that was too long ago for the lesson to still be current for those who don't read.


My grandfather was in the US Army at the end of WW1. He got the Spanish flu and nearly died, taking months to recover. My other grandfather was in France with the Canadian Army and caught tuberculosis which left him permanently disabled. My grandmother was a nurse in an English isolation hospital where only the hard work of rigorous infection control kept her alive. They knew enough back then, above all enough from experience to take epidemics absolutely seriously from the get-go. My aunt was a physician during the 1950's polio epidemic, us younger ones had measles, chicken pox and mumps; all those diseases are controlled by vaccination now. The spread of ideas by anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, and allied groups now is absolutely sickening to me.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Open Book said:


> Is it known what happened to the Spanish flu virus? After infecting and killing so many people did it burn itself out and go extinct? Or is it still out there in isolated pockets? If extinct, is this because survivors had immunity, either attained from exposure or because they were simply more genetically resistant to the virus's worst effects in the first place?


It's still out there.


Wikipedia said:


> The 1918 Spanish flu was the first of two pandemics caused by H1N1 influenza A virus; the second was the 2009 swine flu pandemic.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Highly credentialed Canadian doctor speaks out on Covid:


----------



## NoCoPilot

Stop it. One "highly credentialed" doctor doesn't hold any weight against the entire medical community.


----------



## Open Book

Is that true, what the highly credentialed doctor says at 4:00, that the risk of death for those under 65 is 1 in 300,000?

I'd like to see a table of age vs. risk of death, for every year of a normal human life span. We know the very young have almost nothing to fear and the very old much to fear, but what about the middle aged?

If he's wrong about this statistic, I doubt his credentials.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> Is that true, what the highly credentialed doctor says at 4:00, that the risk of death for those under 65 is 1 in 300,000?
> 
> I'd like to see a table of age vs. risk of death, for every year of a normal human life span. We know the very young have almost nothing to fear and the very old much to fear, but what about the middle aged?
> 
> If he's wrong about this statistic, I doubt his credentials.


CDC data:










This is probability of dying if you contract the disease. "Middle aged" people are in the ~1% mortality ballpark.


----------



## Jacck

SixFootScowl said:


> Highly credentialed Canadian doctor speaks out on Covid:


this is rubbish. There were politicians (in my country and other countries) who had exactly the same ideas as this not very bright doctor (if the video is not fake), that "there is absolutely nothing that can be done to contain the virus" and we should let the virus run its course. Then the reality of the exponential growth and the speed of the filling up of hospitals and ICU beds forced the politicians to reverse their ideas and implement lockdowns etc. Many things the doctor says in the recording are simply untrue. Either he is stupid and uninformed, or he has some ideological agenda, or the video is fake.


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## Strange Magic

There appears to be a Conspiracy of Dunces (Doctor--of something--Scott Atlas here in the USA in a position of some authority, as an example) who consciously or more likely unconsciously (I hope) are heading down a path to destroy or at least seriously cripple our healthcare delivery system through stress, overload, fatigue, emotional collapse. A World gone Mad (half the world here in the USA). Crazy new idea for America: listen to the experts in the field and do what they advise.


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## NoCoPilot

Neurological Radiologist Scott Atlas — with no background in virology — was hired by Fox News to comment on COVID, where he was seen by DJT who liked what he heard, and immediately hired him to head up the White House Corona Task Force. He liked what he heard because Atlas’s advice was to “do nothing” and let the disease run its course. Doing nothing is DJT’s specialty. 

Of course unchecked spread will lead — is leading — to millions of unnecessary infections and hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths. 

But it’s easier than actually providing leadership.


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## Bulldog

NoCoPilot said:


> Neurological Radiologist Scott Atlas - with no background in virology - was hired by Fox News to comment on COVID, where he was seen by DJT who liked what he heard, and immediately hired him to head up the White House Corona Task Force. He liked what he heard because Atlas's advice was to "do nothing" and let the disease run its course. Doing nothing is DJT's specialty.


That's not true. Trump's been going about the business of making the United States a tin-horn fascist state.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Jacck said:


> this is rubbish. There were politicians (in my country and other countries) who had exactly the same ideas as this not very bright doctor (if the video is not fake), that "there is absolutely nothing that can be done to contain the virus" and we should let the virus run its course. Then the reality of the exponential growth and the speed of the filling up of hospitals and ICU beds forced the politicians to reverse their ideas and implement lockdowns etc. Many things the doctor says in the recording are simply untrue. Either he is stupid and uninformed, or he has some ideological agenda, or the video is fake.


It's probably real. There ARE people in the world, even doctors, who believe we cannot do anything to contain the virus so sacrificing several million of our citizens is inevitable.

*Note however,* that this anonymous "highly-credentialed" doctor (I tried looking him up, but got no hits on the info he provided) did not choose a peer-reviewed medical journal to present his findings. No, he called into a conspiracy-theory radio show. If his data is so solid, that's not the way you present in the academic world.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Bulldog said:


> That's not true. Trump's been going about the business of making the United States a tin-horn fascist state.


I hate to disagree with you, but I will. It's the Heritage Foundation, the Federalist Society and Americans for Prosperity who are making all the decisions and pulling all the levers. The Caddy-In-Chief just applies his Sharpie Scrawl™.


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## NoCoPilot

Strange Magic said:


> Crazy new idea for America: listen to the experts in the field and do what they advise.


Two months, Magic. Just wait 2 months.

Let's hope the damage between then & now will still be reparable. It's extremely unfortunate that lives will be lost -- unrecoverable lives, and as many as 100,000 of them -- but right after the transition science will again be ascendant.

You can thank the GOP Senators. They had their chance.


----------



## Strange Magic

*An Uncharitable View: Culling the Herd*--The Dark Side of my thinking--well-developed in the past four years, but growing throughout my exposure over the decades to certain trends in American ideological thought--is that the COVID pandemic is viewed by some as an opportunity to cull the herd. By differentially eliminating the elderly, the disadvantaged (the Poor, in common parlance), the non-white, the already weakened by poverty and the effects of racism, COVID is seen by some as a cleansing, housecleaning, Nature's Hygiene in Action kind of plague. We saw the same thinking during the AIDS epidemic. This is the Darwinism of the Right, those who are constantly bringing up--even here on TC--accusations of advocating eugenics by Progressives, without any foundation ever, whatsoever. So I return the favor here, but with actual precedents in the cavalier dismissal of the COVID threat to such sectors of the population and to the healthcare system as a whole.


----------



## Luchesi

Strange Magic said:


> *An Uncharitable View: Culling the Herd*--The Dark Side of my thinking--well-developed in the past four years, but growing throughout my exposure over the decades to certain trends in American ideological thought--is that the COVID pandemic is viewed by some as an opportunity to cull the herd. By differentially eliminating the elderly, the disadvantaged (the Poor, in common parlance), the non-white, the already weakened by poverty and the effects of racism, COVID is seen by some as a cleansing, housecleaning, Nature's Hygiene in Action kind of plague. We saw the same thinking during the AIDS epidemic. This is the Darwinism of the Right, those who are constantly bringing up--even here on TC--accusations of advocating eugenics by Progressives, without any foundation ever, whatsoever. So I return the favor here, but with actual precedents in the cavalier dismissal of the COVID threat to such sectors of the population and to the healthcare system as a whole.


" the non-white"
The natural fear is, what will happen when the non-whites eventually get the power? It might not be a conscious fear, but it's been the same for thousands of years..
In that movie about prehistoric people a few individuals of different races came together to help each other survive. While watching it I thought to myself - that's a long time ago!


----------



## SixFootScowl

I have a simple solution to the problems in this and many other Community Forum threads. Simply separate the Community Forum from Talk Classical, rename the Community Forum as a new site titled, Talk Communism, and then the rest of us can go about our business without CNN spillover into the forums.

If you believe Trump is a fascist, you are living in a delusion. Why not dump CNN and get back into the real world.


----------



## pianozach

Baron Scarpia said:


> A lot is being made of the need for -80 C storage of the mRNA vaccine. It is not as exotic as it sounds. Every biology lab has a row of refrigeration units, +4C, -20C, -80C. It is a standard product, although the need to make more of them in a hurry could be a bottleneck
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They are expensive, and a pain to work with, since whenever you open the door it immediately starts filling up with ice.





NoCoPilot said:


> And a couple billion doses takes up some space.


Distribution containers for delivery all over the country is going to be a challenge as well


----------



## NoCoPilot

*Strange Magic* & *Luchesi*:

It is _tempting_ to adopt such a dark view of humanity, and I will admit in the depths of my depression I too have gone there. But there's a simpler explanation, and Occam's Rule stipulates that we stick to the simplest explanation that fits the facts.

And that would be that *doing nothing* is the preferred response among our current elected leaders. John Kennedy's "Profiles In Courage" (1956) talks about people who rose up during a crisis, who took the reins of leadership and applied themselves to solving a problem. In today's politics, that's only likely to get your head taken off by some right-wing pundit (or quite literally by a right-wing gun-toting "patriot" who takes the law into his own hands). For several decades now _IN_action has not been punished in the public sphere, so a great many career politicians revert to the path of least action whenever some crisis rears its head.

We have "Profiles In Cowardice."


----------



## NoCoPilot

SixFootScowl said:


> I have a simple solution to the problems in this and many other Community Forum threads. Simply separate the Community Forum from Talk Classical, rename the Community Forum as a new site titled, Talk Communism, and then the rest of us can go about our business without CNN spillover into the forums.
> 
> If you believe Trump is a fascist, you are living in a delusion. Why not dump CNN and get back into the real world.


Do you even know what communism is?


----------



## pianozach

.



Open Book said:


> Is it known what happened to the Spanish flu virus? After infecting and killing so many people did it burn itself out and go extinct? Or is it still out there in isolated pockets? If extinct, is this because survivors had immunity, either attained from exposure or because they were simply more genetically resistant to the virus's worst effects in the first place?


*The Spanish flu*, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the *H1N1 influenza A* virus.

The Spanish Flu Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A/H1N1) was a subtype of Influenza A virus.

The H1N1 influenza A virus caused the *1918 Spanish Flu* and the *2009 Swine Flu*.

The problem here with your specific question is that there isn't an appropriate specific answer. *H1N1 A* mutates. The Spanish flu was an unusually severe and deadly strain of *H1N1 avian influenza*.

In any typical flu season the flu subtype will likely be variant of A/H1N1, A/H3N2 (The 1968 Hong Kong Flu), or Influenza B

​
In an odd correlation to our current pandemic, the "Spanish Flu" got its name because Spain was at the time the only European country where the press were printing reports of the outbreak, which had killed thousands in the armies fighting World War I (1914-1918). Other countries suppressed the news *in order to protect morale*.

There are reports that the US President deliberately downplayed the severity and contagiousness of the COVID pandemic because he didn't want to alarm people. So for those that study history, what 45 did should not be all that all that unexpected - most European countries in 1918 played their hand in a similar way. It was a gamble that didn't work out how he'd have liked - he was trying, just as they did in 1919, to bluff a virus.

:devil:​
In poker (let's say Hold'Em) you might be short stacked, but have pocket aces on the Small Blind. Everyone folds, except The Virus, playing from the Big Blind is the chip leader at the table, and has a 3 7 unsuited, so he calls. You decide to 'slow play' your aces to see how many of the The Virus' chips you can trick him into betting.

The flop is A 4 6. The Virus checks, and You slow play your aces again, because now you have a set of aces.

The turn is a 10. The The Virus checks, and You slow play your aces again. You check behind him again.

The turn is a 5. The Virus checks, even though he managed to suck out his low straight. You confidently go ALL IN, because AAA is a great hand, and statistically the odds of The Virus catching a straight would mean he'd have to have a 23, 37, or 78, none of which seem likely. The Virus calls and you proudly and ignorantly show your pocket aces.

The Virus silently and calmly, without any emotion, shows 3,7, which gives him a 7-high straight. The Dealer pushes all the chips in the pot towards him, and you're busted out with no chips left.


----------



## mmsbls

This thread started off as discussions about a Covid-19 vaccine. That discussion is fine. More recently there have been many political comments and comments having nothing to do with Covid or vaccines. Please refrain from such comments. If you don't know how to discuss a Covid vaccine without making political comments, please refrain from posting here.


----------



## pianozach

SixFootScowl said:


> Highly credentialed Canadian doctor speaks out on Covid:





NoCoPilot said:


> Stop it. One "highly credentialed" doctor doesn't hold any weight against the entire medical community.





Jacck said:


> this is rubbish. There were politicians (in my country and other countries) who had exactly the same ideas as this not very bright doctor (if the video is not fake), that "there is absolutely nothing that can be done to contain the virus" and we should let the virus run its course. Then the reality of the exponential growth and the speed of the filling up of hospitals and ICU beds forced the politicians to reverse their ideas and implement lockdowns etc. Many things the doctor says in the recording are simply untrue. Either he is stupid and uninformed, or he has some ideological agenda, or the video is fake.


*". . . I don't want you to think I'm a quack, but . . . "*


----------



## NoCoPilot

mmsbls said:


> This thread started off as discussions about a Covid-19 vaccine. That discussion is fine. More recently there have been many political comments and comments having nothing to do with Covid or vaccines. Please refrain from such comments. If you don't know how to discuss a Covid vaccine without making political comments, please refrain from posting here.


Unfortunately the virus, the response to the virus, and the development and rollout of various vaccines have been wrapped around the axel of politics by various reality-denying politicians. To separate the facts on the ground from the context in which they are occurring would require a scalpel and the skill of a surgeon.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> Unfortunately the virus, the response to the virus, and the development and rollout of various vaccines have been wrapped around the axel of politics by various reality-denying politicians. To separate the facts on the ground from the context in which they are occurring would require a scalpel and the skill of a surgeon.


Quite true. It's happened here in the US, and in the UK as well.

This pandemic is not the only thing that has become politicized here either. The list of politicized things is long.

*In VACCINE news today*, Pfizer announced that they will apply for emergency use of its COVID-19 Vaccine.

And of course, the discussion on who should get the vaccine first continues.

*But the biggest Vaccine news you may have missed, is that almost a million people have been given an experimental Chinese coronavirus vaccine developed by Sinopharm as part of an emergency-use program authorized by Beijing.
*
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/asia/china-sinopharm-vaccine-test-intl-hnk/index.html


----------



## Chilham




----------



## Roger Knox

mmsbls said:


> This thread started off as discussions about a Covid-19 vaccine. That discussion is fine. More recently there have been many political comments and comments having nothing to do with Covid or vaccines. Please refrain from such comments. If you don't know how to discuss a Covid vaccine without making political comments, please refrain from posting here.


When I wrote the OP I thought people would basically think that a new vaccine is a great thing, although they would want answers to pertinent questions. Instead there erupted all sorts of issues carrying loaded assumptions, including political ones. We're living in a particularly disturbing time politically, and I agree that you can't separate fully the politics from the medicine. Nevertheless, I am elated that not only one but several vaccines exist -- that is something to celebrate!


----------



## Guest

Roger Knox said:


> When I wrote the OP I thought people would basically think that a new vaccine is a great thing, although they would want answers to pertinent questions. Instead there erupted all sorts of issues carrying loaded assumptions, including political ones. We're living in a particularly disturbing time politically, and I agree that you can't separate fully the politics from the medicine. Nevertheless, I am elated that not only one but several vaccines exist -- that is something to celebrate!


I see that Don Junior has just tested positive. He'll be another of the ranks of 200 million who have died in the USA (figures quoted by Harris and Biden)?!! I sincerely hope not.


----------



## Guest

Chilham said:


>


*What you say*: *What I hear*:

Most people die from it. No they don't

We have to get back to our lives. Axiomatic

I don't live in fear. Life is for living; nothing to fear but fear

Keeping me at home is a violation of freedom. Completely unconstitutional;

You're exaggerating.... Yes, you're exaggerating. Completely

One table on *What I Hear* is loaded with emotion and hand-wringing - the other with practical responses and realities. "I can't imagine caring about other people unless they can be used as political weapons"....Priceless.

Welcome to Identity Politics 101.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> I see that Don Junior has just tested positive. He'll be another of the ranks of 200 million who have died in the USA (figures quoted by Harris and Biden)?!! I sincerely hope not.


I would like to see the exact quotation cited where Harris and Biden state that 200,000,000 Americans have died of the coronavirus. I am sure I am not alone.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> *What you say*: *What I hear*:
> 
> Most people die from it. No they don't
> 
> We have to get back to our lives. Axiomatic
> 
> I don't live in fear. Life is for living; nothing to fear but fear
> 
> Keeping me at home is a violation of freedom. Completely unconstitutional;
> 
> You're exaggerating.... Yes, you're exaggerating. Completely
> 
> One table on *What I Hear* is loaded with emotion and hand-wringing - the other with practical responses and realities. "I can't imagine caring about other people unless they can be used as political weapons"....Priceless.
> 
> Welcome to Identity Politics 101.


This is a wonderful post! It exemplifies exactly the bizarre combination of restating the obvious and distorting what is plainly and unambiguously set down in order to grind axes to a fine edge. "Most people die from it". No they don't, and nobody has ever asserted that they do. This is so blatant as to be wonderful. :lol: I often ask Is there more? And there always is!


----------



## KenOC

This stuff gets very tiresome. Thank God, sez I, that the truths, values, and beliefs held by each of us are universally and eternally true, and that those who hold otherwise are ignorant and uncouth, little better than beasts and possibly even absolutely evil. This holds no matter how strange and bizarre our minds would appear to people in the past, or to people in the future for that matter! 

We live in a moment of eternal unquestioning _rightness_! How nice for us, eh?


----------



## NoCoPilot

KenOC said:


> Thank God, sez I, that the truths, values, and beliefs held by each of us are universally and eternally true, and that those who hold otherwise are ignorant ....


I'm enough of a cockeyed optimist that I *still* believe in objective reality.

When I read science-based articles, or see news reports by credentialed scientists, or have discussions with individuals who are knowledgeable in their fields, there is enough concurrence and overlap that I get a pretty high degree of confidence that what they're describing is, in fact, what everyone else can, or should, see.

But then there are the "other viewpoints." Some people believe in vast conspiracy theories where everyone in the world is trying to trick them. There are people who think all truths are fungible, "alternative facts" are just as good as real facts, alternative medicine is just as good as proven medicine, "my opinion is just as valuable as your facts." There are people who think we're ruled by the alignment of the stars, or that there are lizard people among us, or that the moon landing never happened.

When I was a kid we called these people "kooks." They were laughed out of public forums.

Then the FCC Fairness Doctrine was overturned in 1987, and very soon afterwards we got broadcasters (radio and TV) promoting alternative realities 24 x 7 with no requirements for fact-checking or veracity. Entire ecosystems of crazy sprang up, self-reinforcing, untethered from facts, bolstered from outside criticism by refusing to acknowledge outside sources as valid.

Suddenly, everyone's opinion was equal. Suddenly, history was no longer written, but could be argued ("the Holocaust never happened! It was a Jewish plot to bring down Hitler's government!")

Dizzying, it is.

Applying science and logic and rational thinking is now considered "kooky" by a shockingly-large percentage of the public.


----------



## NoCoPilot

But to get back to the vaccines... the next big hurdle, in 2021 into 2022, will be *the fights over who gets the vaccines.*

While the pandemic continues to rage over the next 2-3 years, and the deaths reach seven figures and the infections reach nine or ten, there will be huge fights. By all logic and decency, healthcare workers -- not in the US but all over the world -- should get the vaccine before a single other person gets their first dose. But it's a lead pipe cinch that won't happen.

Rich countries will hoard, and poor countries will die. Rich cities will hoard, and poor rural areas will die. Rich individual city-dwellers will hoard, and poor individual city-dwellers will die. The distribution of the vaccine will become highly politically charged and contentious.

Anti-vaxxers will die disproportionately, but friends and relatives of them will be brought down as well. Lots of children will become orphans, and the world isn't set up for that.

Healthcare will become a high risk, high stress, high burnout and high dropout profession. There will be massive shortages of qualified workers throughout the world -- with no good remedy in sight.


----------



## Strange Magic

> KenOC: "those who hold otherwise are ignorant and uncouth, little better than *beats* and possibly even absolutely evil."


Now hold on Ken. The poor beats--Kerouac, Ginsberg, Corso, etc.--weren't the greatest group of literary geniuses that America produced, but they weren't actually evil. My father, the dourest, most conservative man you could possibly imagine, told me he had read, and loved, Kerouac's _On The Road_ when it first came out (must've borrowed my copy without telling me). It expressed the wanderlust and free-spiritedness that he never fully got the chance himself to experience.....


----------



## Jacck

Christabel said:


> I see that Don Junior has just tested positive. He'll be another of the ranks of 200 million who have died in the USA (figures quoted by Harris and Biden)?!! I sincerely hope not.


but think of all those endangered species animals that could be saved


----------



## Jacck

WHO recommends against using remdesivir to treat Covid-19
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/health/who-remdesivir-coronavirus-treatment-guidelines/index.html


----------



## Chilham

Christabel said:


> *What you say*:
> 
> Most people die from it. ....


:clap: .............


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> WHO recommends against using remdesivir to treat Covid-19
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/health/who-remdesivir-coronavirus-treatment-guidelines/index.html


"Not I", said one little bear.


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> This is a wonderful post! It exemplifies exactly the bizarre combination of restating the obvious and distorting what is plainly and unambiguously set down in order to grind axes to a fine edge. "Most people die from it". No they don't, and nobody has ever asserted that they do. This is so blatant as to be wonderful. :lol: I often ask Is there more? And there always is!


Can I have what you're having? Or perhaps I should just re-read "Alice in Wonderland". Read what I wrote; that 'most people don't die from it" but that was a non-hysterical comment. And a fact. Stop making things up; you know it's not good for you.


----------



## Open Book

NoCoPilot said:


> But to get back to the vaccines... the next big hurdle, in 2021 into 2022, will be *the fights over who gets the vaccines.*
> 
> While the pandemic continues to rage over the next 2-3 years, and the deaths reach seven figures and the infections reach nine or ten, there will be huge fights. By all logic and decency, healthcare workers -- not in the US but all over the world -- should get the vaccine before a single other person gets their first dose. But it's a lead pipe cinch that won't happen.
> 
> Rich countries will hoard, and poor countries will die. Rich cities will hoard, and poor rural areas will die. Rich individual city-dwellers will hoard, and poor individual city-dwellers will die. The distribution of the vaccine will become highly politically charged and contentious.
> 
> Anti-vaxxers will die disproportionately, but friends and relatives of them will be brought down as well. Lots of children will become orphans, and the world isn't set up for that.
> 
> Healthcare will become a high risk, high stress, high burnout and high dropout profession. There will be massive shortages of qualified workers throughout the world -- with no good remedy in sight.


Aren't you exaggerating just a little?

Why wouldn't health care workers get the vaccine first? Everyone wants to see this or there will be no one to fight the disease. Burnout is a problem but at least we're getting a U.S. government that seriously wants to mobilize and fight the disease, which should be encouraging to health care workers.

Rich countries have an advantage but they are the ones developing the vaccine. Just as China hoarded the PPE it almost exclusively manufactured, it stands to reason an effective vaccine will be used locally first. Rich nations have higher rates of infection than poor nations right now for which I haven't heard any explanation.

Yes, rich individuals always have advantages over everyone else in everything. But we in the U.S. are going to get a presidency that believes in fighting the disease efficiently, so I think they will realize vaccination can't be limited to just one segment of the population.

There won't be many child orphans because fatal victims of the disease are largely elderly people.

And there are many different vaccines in the works.

It's going to take a little more time. Don't fret.


----------



## Guest

The elephant in the vaccine room is the large numbers of people who've said they're not having a bar of it. This is a big warning to governments which will over-spend on a vaccine which many won't have. In Australia there is a huge number of people unwilling to trust a hurriedly-developed vaccine. However, we have a comparatively low incidence of Covid-19 compared to most because of our huge country, its somewhat disparate 24.5 million population and federalist (state) system. In our country the tiny proportion of people dying from Covid-19 are mostly over 70; their 3 score years and 10 have arrived. Many are dying WITH Covid-19 rather than from Covid-19 and the younger cohort of natives, especially those under house arrest, are becoming restive and want their rights restored. Come the winter we will face an increase in the incidence of the disease, but arguably not necessarily the percentage increase of carriers and patients to actual deaths.

It has transpired that there's a big political advantage in keeping the people fear-driven and locked down. One of our worst offenders, the Queensland government, has just been returned with an increased majority in the recent state elections. Incompetent and debt-fuelled; undoubtedly. But the terrified people are doing the voting. Not wanting the vaccine, mind; just wanting nanny to make assurances.

People have said here in this thread that they don't want politics to enter the discussion about Covid-19. That means a certain shade of politics, first and foremost, but it cannot be denied that there are and will be political advantages and losses with this pandemic. Those politicians who shackle their flags to the 'we are saving the people' mast are certain to fall short. A virus can mutate and this is already happening with Covid-19. The best a politician can do is to suggest, "we will do all we can to enforce safe social practices in the face of a pandemic; we will attempt to protect the vulnerable but people should take their own steps to make sure they maintain the highest levels of good health and fitness with regular diet and exercise". Something like that. Returning agency to the people so that they don't feel helpless and at the behest of power-drunk politicians. 

There are also what I call the "secondary political consequences". Now I cannot, of course, speak here about other nations - only what I experience. The first of these 'secondary' consequences is unemployment/decimated commercial sectors; eg. airlines brought to the brink (these same that contribute massively to government through taxes so they can afford schools, hospitals, defense etc.). But there are also the socio-economic consequences as a 'secondary' consideration. A younger generation of fit and healthy individuals who are effectively restrained from making economic and career progress (oh, except if they're public servants), of buying houses and sharing in the dream. You might say, "oh, it's only temporary". Into almost a year and it's not looking quite so temporary. Anyway, in Australia we have what is known as 'generational resentment'. People blame the baby boomers for not being able to acquire wealth, buy a home, make a fruitful and stable career. It is believed that the baby boomer cohort holds the monopoly on this - as though a monolithic cohort exists, for whom manna suddenly dropped from the heavens.

Put that generational resentment alongside Covid confinement, rising house prices (because of myriad government incentives to get the building industry going - remember, if the build costs rise the existing house prices also rise). It's not rocket science to see that we face a grievance epidemic for the opportunity cost of saving baby boomer lives.

That's my beef. It's about the only advantage that comes with age, apart from not being broke; you get to understand the way the world really works.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> Can I have what you're having? Or perhaps I should just re-read "Alice in Wonderland". Read what I wrote; that 'most people don't die from it" but that was a non-hysterical comment. And a fact. Stop making things up; you know it's not good for you.


What I'm having is my usual acuity of mind and analysis. Re-reading _Alice_ always recommended. I read what you wrote: Most People Don't Die From It. My point, which you seemingly cannot grasp, or more accurately ignore, is that No One Ever Asserted That They Did. Your implication, as we both know but that you now repudiate, disavow, forget, disown, was that there was or is some cohort of people who believe and say that COVID kills most victims. A junk statement, one we're growing used to from you. Try to do better; be always aware that I am watching.....

And what about the 200,000,000 Americans dead of COVID that you claimed Harris and Biden cited? Your silence in providing a source is noted and is deafening. Look it up in _Alice_, maybe?? People are eager to know.


----------



## KenOC

Search on "biden says 200 million dead" and you can find the quote easily enough. It seems quite real but not really worth worrying about.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> The elephant in the vaccine room is the large numbers of people who've said they're not having a bar of it. This is a big warning to governments which will over-spend on a vaccine which many won't have.


Not a problem. The anti-vaxxers will be self-limiting; they'll die off in roughly the same percentages as they refuse to accept the 20th Century.


----------



## Open Book

Christabel said:


> Those politicians who shackle their flags to the 'we are saving the people' mast are certain to fall short. A virus can mutate and this is already happening with Covid-19. The best a politician can do is to suggest, "we will do all we can to enforce safe social practices in the face of a pandemic; we will attempt to protect the vulnerable but people should take their own steps to make sure they maintain the highest levels of good health and fitness with regular diet and exercise". Something like that. Returning agency to the people so that they don't feel helpless and at the behest of power-drunk politicians.


Not everyone who is vulnerable can shelter. There are longtime cashiers in my local supermarket who are probably in their 60's, forced to keep working in a risky environment because their low salary hasn't given them the savings cushion they would need to stop for any length of time. Would you be in favor of government helping them financially?

Fitness level is exaggerated as a factor in avoiding serious complications. Some people can have more genetic vulnerabilities to the virus than others regardless of their fitness, just like with cancer and heart disease. It may give you a _feeling_ of control to know you are fit, but you may not have any actual control.

This virus is unique in culling mostly the old. The Spanish flu actually killed more children, I believe. How would you feel if this coronavirus were killing people of all ages at the same rate or younger people at a higher rate? Would you still advocate the same fixes, "returning agency to the people" ?

The virus may be mutating but that doesn't mean vaccines would be totally ineffective. We have an annually influenza vaccine that is updated every year and has some effectiveness against that mutating virus. Also treatments may be developed to stop the immune system overreaction that kills people. This could take some time, however, just as HIV treatments took a lot of time to develop.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Search on "biden says 200 million dead" and you can find the quote easily enough. It seems quite real but not really worth worrying about.


Yeah, maybe, but you know it was a slip of the tongue. He meant probably 200 thousand dead, in the U.S. Yeah, he has a lot of slips of the tongue, they do come with age, but he's still sharp in other ways.


----------



## Luchesi

NoCoPilot said:


> Not a problem. The anti-vaxxers will be self-limiting; they'll die off in roughly the same percentages as they refuse to accept the 20th Century.


20th Century? That's quite backward alright.


----------



## Luchesi

Open Book said:


> Yeah, maybe, but you know it was a slip of the tongue. He meant probably 200 thousand dead, in the U.S. Yeah, he has a lot of slips of the tongue, they do come with age, but he's still sharp in other ways.


He's what the party gave us.


----------



## Strange Magic

KenOC said:


> Search on "biden says 200 million dead" and you can find the quote easily enough. It seems quite real but not really worth worrying about.


Ken, your word I'll take for it and will not need to check. But thanks for asserting that an obvious slip-of-the-tongue was the "culprit". Better to have an aging stutterer in the Oval Office, backed up by an accomplished woman, than someone who daily displays increasing signs of.........


----------



## Luchesi

Strange Magic said:


> Ken, your word I'll take for it and will not need to check. But thanks for asserting that an obvious slip-of-the-tongue was the "culprit". Better to have an aging stutterer in the Oval Office, backed up by an accomplished woman, than someone who daily displays increasing signs of.........


There's been progress. Aren't we surprised that enough voters are ok with a woman being a heartbeat away from the presidency?
Aren't we surprised that N Korea didn't do some saber-rattling before the election? Our president was unpredictable, did he scare N Korea? Biden's less scary for N Korea?
200 million, 200 billion, more gaffes are not surprising. That's what advisors are for. I think he'll listen to his advisors. As for the virus, what can a president do?

Did the virus in the movie Andromeda Strain mutate into something harmless? I don't remember.


----------



## Sonata

Jacck said:


> WHO recommends against using remdesivir to treat Covid-19
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/health/who-remdesivir-coronavirus-treatment-guidelines/index.html


Well DAMN. My husband gets his fourth of five Remdesivir treatments tomorrow. If this or the steroids don't work we're in trouble


----------



## Sonata

SixFootScowl said:


> If you know little about vaccines, how do you conclude that the potential for saving lives is breathtaking? Perhaps you meant the "presumed" potential?


You are being pedantic. "Potential" in itself is an estimation, not a set level of achievement. Presumed potential is redundant


----------



## NoCoPilot

Open Book said:


> Aren't you exaggerating just a little?


I _HOPE_ so. But another year of exponential growth will make this thing a lot uglier than it already is, and possible mutations as the various vaccines are rolled out could do the same. We really don't know what to expect in 2021-2.

I try not to envision worst-case-scenarios but my imagination runs wild sometimes.


----------



## Flamme

Today is a fuzuneral of serbian orthodox ''patriarch'' who died of covid few days ago...Another ex bishop died yesterday, really spooky! https://www.insider.com/head-of-serbian-orthodox-church-died-covid-19-2020-11


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## Roger Knox

Sonata said:


> You are being pedantic. "Potential" in itself is an estimation, not a set level of achievement. Presumed potential is redundant


Thank you! This is no time for pickiness.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Distribution containers for delivery all over the country is going to be a challenge as well


I just read that Pfizer has created a fleet of instrumented dry ice coolers to ship and store the vaccine. Health care providers will not need -80 freezers. Once removed from the dry ice cooler the vaccine can be stored for 5 days in an ordinary refrigerator. I suspect Pfizer has the logistics worked out.


----------



## Roger Knox

Flamme said:


> Today is a fuzuneral of serbian orthodox ''patriarch'' who died of covid few days ago...Another ex bishop died yesterday, really spooky! https://www.insider.com/head-of-serbian-orthodox-church-died-covid-19-2020-11


I like your post while my heart goes out to the Serbian people including the Orthodox. Sometimes reality is really spooky. This kissing is a violation of knowledge and common sense.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Search on "biden says 200 million dead" and you can find the quote easily enough. It seems quite real but not really worth worrying about.





Open Book said:


> Yeah, maybe, but you know it was a slip of the tongue. He meant probably 200 thousand dead, in the U.S. Yeah, he has a lot of slips of the tongue, they do come with age, but he's still sharp in other ways.


It's amusing when Biden-deriders try to slam Mr. Biden for his slips of the tongue, when for every Biden word wart on can easily produce a baker's dozen from their hero Trump. Two baker's dozens if you include Tweets.


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## NoCoPilot

Biden's gaffes are accidents.


----------



## Flamme

Roger Knox said:


> I like your post while my heart goes out to the Serbian people including the Orthodox. Sometimes reality is really spooky. This kissing is a violation of knowledge and common sense.


Yeah bro...That bishop is a third high priest of the Church who died in last week! Kind of a bad omen if I ever saw one...Most people in serbia are orthodox...I hate those stupid customs where they kiss icons, hands and other things, very yucky and in this moment dangerous...But this cull...Will they cull everything from minks to swans and other domestic animals...??? I dont like it one bit, I have a bad feeling...


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## NoCoPilot

Mink coats for all the homeless!


----------



## Flamme

But. Look at those eyes bro..Could you...?


----------



## elgar's ghost

Flamme said:


> But. Look at those eyes bro..Could you...?


Cute, but try to tickle one under the chin and it would soon have your finger off.


----------



## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> But. Look at those eyes bro..Could you...?


Why would a woman want to wear a dead one? It's beyond me.


----------



## Flamme

They are warm? My mum had one...
The culling of...Swans???https://www.facebook.com/euronews/p...1&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic&ref=notif


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> They are warm? My mum had one...
> The culling of...Swans???https://www.facebook.com/euronews/p...0601¬if_t=feedback_reaction_generic&ref=notif


to make swan schnitzel and swan strudel?


----------



## KenOC

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, the head of the US coronavirus vaccine program, says Americans may have access to limited supplies of the Pfizer vaccine starting on 11 or 12 December. He estimates that herd immunity may be achieved with a 70% vaccination rate by May. I think that means that at a 70% vaccination rate, the coronavirus's R naught will be reduced to less than one.

See the BBC article *here*.


----------



## KenOC

Comrade Xi has a great idea for us: “China president proposes global QR code health system to boost travel amid pandemic”. Combined with Bill Gates trying to chip us all (heck, even without that!), it’s sure looking like the end times. 

“And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads. And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.”


----------



## Flamme




----------



## NoCoPilot

KenOC said:


> He estimates that herd immunity may be achieved with a 70% vaccination rate by May. I think that means that at a 70% vaccination rate, the coronavirus's R naught will be reduced to less than one.


I'm not sure "herd immunity" means what you think it means. It does not mean anyone is immune; it only means the spread becomes linear instead of exponential as the R naught approaches 1.

We would still need to quarantine and self-isolate and contact trace.


----------



## KenOC

NoCoPilot said:


> I'm not sure "herd immunity" means what you think it means. It does not mean anyone is immune; it only means the spread becomes linear instead of exponential as the R naught approaches 1.
> 
> We would still need to quarantine and self-isolate and contact trace.


"Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected - not just those who are immune. Often, a percentage of the population must be capable of getting a disease in order for it to spread." --Mayo Clinic

Dr. Slaoui is suggesting that if 30% or less of the population is unvaccinated, the number of cases will decline and (in theory) finally there will be no new cases at all.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Yeah, that's essentially what I meant but I stated it incorrectly. The R naught actually *drops below one*...

Meaning infected individuals are less likely to encounter virgin hosts, meaning the disease stops spreading exponentially _*or linearly.*_ It can still spread, when a virgin walks among us -- that's what I was trying to state.


----------



## DaveM

NoCoPilot said:


> ...It can still spread, when a virgin walks among us...


Just one more thing for virgins to be careful of.


----------



## NoCoPilot

KenOC said:


> Dr. Slaoui is suggesting that if 30% or less of the population is unvaccinated, the number of cases will decline and (in theory) finally there will be no new cases at all.


Well that depends on a couple of factors: 1. The figure of 30% is arbitrary, 2. The age of the infection -- i.e. if the individual is still infectious -- is critical (and do we know how long a person is infectious?), 3. The number of individuals the unvaccinated comes in contact with is critical; it only takes ONE infectious individual to infect the virgin host, and finally 4. vaccine virgins hanging out with other vaccine virgins would be a heck of a lot more at risk than hanging out with commie pinko libruls who've already been vaccinated.


----------



## DaveM

NoCoPilot said:


> Well that depends on a couple of factors: 1. The figure of 30% is arbitrary...


_arbitrary def:_ based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system.

The figures to achieve herd immunity are theoretical, not arbitrary. They vary depending on the disease. For the coronavirus, it is estimated at between 60 and 80% (20-40% unvaccinated).


----------



## Guest

Well, it depends on everything. One issue is the R0 for Covid-19 is quite large, I've read that it is 3 (an infected person gives it to 3 people on average). If R0 is greater than 1 the number of infected grows exponentially.

Suppose the vaccine is 90% effective. That means the 3 people you would have given the disease to only have an 10% chance of getting it, a 90% chance that their immune response fights it off. Then the R0 goes from 3 to 0.3 (10% of 3). Terrific!

But what if only 70% are vaccinated? Then 30% of the 3 people you would have given it to actually get it because they are not immune. That contributes 3*0.3 = 0.9 to R0 (30% of 3). If the vaccine were perfect that would be enough. But the 70% that are vaccinated still have a 10% chance of getting it. The 70% would account for 3*0.7 = 2.1, but only 10% are actually infected because of the vaccine, so that's 0.21. The total R0 is 0.9 + 0.21 = 1.11. Slightly above 1. So with a 90% effective vaccine and an R0 of 3 in the absence of vaccine 70% vaccination is almost enough.

Of course this is a simplistic analysis. It assumes a homogeneous population. It doesn't take into account important deviations such as clusters of unvaccinated people, super spreader events, etc.


----------



## pianozach

Two things:

1. Some Megachurch Pastor is out there preaching that the vaccine will mess up your DNA, making it impossible to "sense" God. That's right . . . He's warning that the COVID vaccine will basically create a generation of atheists.

:lol:

2. IRON LUNGS in a Polio Ward, 1950









How quickly we forget: Society has a short memory.

The Salk vaccine came out in 1955, an incredible event, a miracle. In the 1950s, summer outbreaks in the USA caused tens of thousands of cases of polio, leaving hundreds paralyzed or dead. 'Second only to the atomic bomb,' polio was 'the thing that Americans feared the most.'

5% of babies who got polio died and 30% of adults who got it died. This does not take into account the huge number who spent most of their lives in iron lungs or wheelchairs.

About 57,000 people died in 1952 from polio.

Yeah, *they put my dad in an iron lung before he died in the summer of 1957*. He only lasted a week after diagnosis.

It's an odd thing. 1957. I was 8 months old, so have no memories of him. There's some old movie footage with him holding me as a baby. Some photographs as well.

Evidently, even though he was on active duty as Captain in the USAF, working as a navigator, he was not on the priority list for vaccination. He and my mom were vacationing in Mexico City, and was exposed somehow.

By the time I was 3 or 4 my mother had remarried.

*Now that we're in a pandemic again*, folks are bringing up previous pandemics, usually the *1918 Spanish Flu* pandemic, but *the Polio epidemics* are still relevant.

In many ways, COVID-19 and polio present similar challenges. Like polio, COVID-19 is a highly contagious virus that can be deadly. And, of course, COVID-19 enters the lungs through airborne particles, while polio enters the body through the gastrointestinal tract, often via contaminated water. Despite their differences, both diseases resulted in outbreaks that tested *health care workers*.

They called the Polio of outbreak of 1950 *"The Summer Without Children"*, but there was yet another polio epidemic in 1955.

No one knows for sure how the COVID-19 pandemic will play out. The history of the 1955 polio outbreak suggests that health care providers will continue to grapple with the disease long after the worst of the crisis has passed.
We know basically very little of human immunity length, and every week we discover additional lingering complications from those that "recover".

_As far as a vaccine goes, this "rush" to get it to market seems inherently dangerous_, especially in light of the rush to get a Polio vaccine to everyone initially resulting in what's now referred to as "*The Cutter Incident*" (named for Cutter Laboratories, which had manufactured the defective vaccine correctly):

In a vaccine trial in April 1955 more than 200,000 children in five Western and mid-Western USA states received a polio vaccine in which the process of inactivating the live virus proved to be defective. Within days there were reports of paralysis and within a month the first mass vaccination programm against polio had to be abandoned.

*The Salk vaccine* trial ended up *CAUSING 40,000 cases* of polio, leaving 200 children with varying degrees of paralysis and killing 10, and Salk's formaldehyde-treated vaccine was replaced with Sabin's attenuated strain that was administered orally in 1960 (until it, too, was replaced in the 1980s [the 2000s in the US] when a modified Salk vaccine was re-introduced). As it turns out, the Sabin vaccine also caused paralysis, in six to eight children every year.


----------



## KenOC

Then there were three… From the *BBC*:

"The coronavirus vaccine developed by the University of Oxford is highly effective at stopping people developing Covid-19 symptoms, a large trial shows. Interim data suggests 70% protection, but the researchers say the figure may be as high as 90% by tweaking the dose.

"The results will be seen as a triumph, but come after Pfizer and Moderna vaccines showed 95% protection. However, the Oxford jab is far cheaper, and is easier to store and get to every corner of the world than the other two."


----------



## Roger Knox

https://globalnews.ca/news/7469951/coronavirus-vaccine-safety-polio-cutter-incident/

There is another story about the Salk polio vaccine, shown in the last half of the above news story. The man being interviewed is Paul Martin, Jr. who'd polio as a child. He became Prime Minister of Canada in the mid-2000's. His father, Paul Martin Sr., was Canada's health minister in 1955. He'd also had polio himself and after the the Cutter incident, despite much criticism, still chose to go ahead and allow the Salk vaccine as made by another manufacturer, Connaught Laboratories. It proved to be safe and effective -- I was vaccinated with it.


----------



## KenOC

More on the Oxford vaccine from a Fox News story. The bit about the efficacy rate is a little confusing.

“The finding of 90% efficacy for the vaccine is based on giving first a half-dose and then, a while later, a full dose. Hill called the result “super-impressive."

“The “average” rate from the vaccine is put at 70%. That’s because a full dose/full dose regimen results in 62% efficiency. 

“Hill said that Oxford's 90% dosage is what they will plan to distribute. But he and others caution it depends on more testing and regulators in the U.S., Britain and Europe…

“Still, while the two other vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna have published higher overall efficacy rates, there are other factors that could place the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine ahead :

“Their vaccine can be stored at normal refrigerator temperature, 32 to 46 degrees. Moderna needs -4 degrees and Pfizer -94 degrees. That makes transport and storage much easier and cheaper.

“The cost of a dose of their vaccine, during the pandemic, is $3-$5. Pfizer’s is $20. Moderna’s ranges in cost from $32 to $37.”


----------



## elgar's ghost

What could happen if they mixed the three together?


----------



## NoCoPilot

Yay science! The speed of the development of these vaccines, and their efficacy, is nothing short of astounding.

That, and the selfless marathon being run by healthcare workers, makes me proud to be a member of the human race.


----------



## NoCoPilot

elgars ghost said:


> What could happen if they mixed the three together?


No amplification of benefit, from what I understand. They all three work on the same principle, mRNA causing proteins that mimic the virus.


----------



## NoCoPilot

pianozach said:


> How quickly we forget: Society has a short memory.


My aunt & uncle had a son, Johnny, the apple of their eye, who died in 1955 just two months before the vaccine became available. He was eight years old.

I inherited his baseball glove, and his football, and some shoes.

My uncle took up drinking, and never really quit. It killed him more slowly, but no less surely than polio.


----------



## pianozach

elgars ghost said:


> What could happen if they mixed the three together?


You might come down with a nasty case of COVID-19.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> My aunt & uncle had a son, Johnny, the apple of their eye, who died in 1955 just two months before the vaccine became available. He was eight years old.
> 
> I inherited his baseball glove, and his football, and some shoes.
> 
> My uncle took up drinking, and never really quit. It killed him more slowly, but no less surely than polio.


So sorry for both of them. Sad.

Diseases actually affect those that may not have even contracted it, in this case your uncle who crawled inside a bottle, or my older brother, who was almost five when my father died from polio, and was a bit of an "eccentric" who pretty much ended up drinking himself to death. Quite the drunkard.

The Covid pandemic is also affecting people psychologically various assorted ways. There's even been suicides that can be indirectly linked to Covid.


----------



## DaveM

Speaking of polio:

Little known among the general public is the Post-Polio Syndrome (PPS). It occurs 15-30 years after the disease in 40-80% of those who survived polio, including both those who recovered from paralysis and those who had none and consists variably of a combination of symptoms: muscle atrophy, weakness, pain and fatigue in limbs that were affected and some that were not. Fatigue is the most debilitating of the symptoms.

The cause of PPS is not known for sure, but the more prominent theory is that the body compensates after the original disease with the development of new motor neuron fibers which, years later, eventually start to fail.


----------



## pianozach

DaveM said:


> Speaking of polio:
> 
> Little known among the general public is the Post-Polio Syndrome (PPS). It occurs 15-30 years after the disease in 40-80% of those who survived polio, including both those who recovered from paralysis and those who had none and consists variably of a combination of symptoms: muscle atrophy, weakness, pain and fatigue in limbs that were affected and some that were not. Fatigue is the most debilitating of the symptoms.
> 
> The cause of PPS is not known for sure, but the more prominent theory is that the body compensates after the original disease with the development of new motor neuron fibers which, years later, eventually start to fail.


Excellent find. I didn't know about PPS. I know a few folks with *Polio*-related limps and under-formed legs and whatnot. They generally don't talk about it. But I didn't know about the recurrence of polio decades later.

Some doctors and epidemiologists have been warning of the possible long-term complications from *COVID-19* exposure. It's already had some unusual anecdotal cases where people have lingering symptoms long after "recovery".

Same with *Chickenpox*, where decades later you might develop Shingles along a random dermatome.


----------



## Strange Magic

Joni Mitchell is perhaps one of the best-known sufferers from Post Polio Syndrome.

https://jonimitchell.com/library/view.cfm?id=2701


----------



## pianozach

Strange Magic said:


> Joni Mitchell is perhaps one of the best-known sufferers from Post Polio Syndrome.
> 
> https://jonimitchell.com/library/view.cfm?id=2701


Wow. I didn't know that.


----------



## Roger Knox

DaveM said:


> Speaking of polio:
> 
> Little known among the general public is the Post-Polio Syndrome (PPS). It occurs 15-30 years after the disease in 40-80% of those who survived polio, including both those who recovered from paralysis and those who had none and consists variably of a combination of symptoms: muscle atrophy, weakness, pain and fatigue in limbs that were affected and some that were not. Fatigue is the most debilitating of the symptoms.
> 
> The cause of PPS is not known for sure, but the more prominent theory is that the body compensates after the original disease with the development of new motor neuron fibers which, years later, eventually start to fail.


When I was a volunteer with the Ontario March of Dimes (which has a post-polio program), I got to know quite a few people with PPS. The more I think about it, what an admirable group they were!


----------



## NoCoPilot

pianozach said:


> Some doctors and epidemiologists have been warning of the possible long-term complications from *COVID-19* exposure. It's already had some unusual anecdotal cases where people have lingering symptoms long after "recovery".


It might be years before we know the symptoms of Post-COVID Syndrome (PCS). It could be anything from an orange tint to the skin, to uncontrollable anti-social behavior.


----------



## Flamme

My late mum would be in a risk group if she was alive today...She had a pacemaker. Although her heart condition was excellent when she suffered her terrible end


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> It might be years before we know the symptoms of Post-COVID Syndrome (PCS). It could be anything from an orange tint to the skin, to uncontrollable anti-social behavior.


Never mind: swamp fever will soon fix that.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Long term effects of mRNA vaccines are humanly theoretical . Works ok for mice .


----------



## Open Book

My physical therapist is going to have a full Thanksgiving with his relatives. I didn't ask for details, like how big a crowd it will be, or show disapproval. But I feel like pushing off my next appointment by a COVID incubation period of two weeks.


----------



## Flamme

Its kinda strange that they made a vaccine for only couple of months while the previos ones took years to produce...


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> Its kinda strange that they made a vaccine for only couple of months while the previos ones took years to produce...


It's not that strange. They were working from vaccine platforms that were already in the works and were made possible by advances in molecular biology. And they are rushing it into widespread use with much less testing than would have been done in the past, due to the obvious urgency of the situation. We will see if the bet pays off in due time.


----------



## Roger Knox

Open Book said:


> My physical therapist is going to have a full Thanksgiving with his relatives. I didn't ask for details, like how big a crowd it will be, or show disapproval. But I feel like pushing off my next appointment by a COVID incubation period of two weeks.


Yes, don't have details. At least, I think the physio should have provided enough information for you to make an informed decision. Informed consent to treatment is an important principle.


----------



## pianozach

Flamme said:


> Its kinda strange that they made a vaccine for only couple of months while the previos ones took years to produce...


Exactly. The *Cutter Incident* of the *Polio vaccine* trials is a prime example. There is still a lingering controversy about some vaccines that used to contain thimerisol (which breaks down to a mercury compound) causing autism. A very controversial issue with adherents to the opposing sides of the argument vehemently digging in their heels and crying "foul" on the other side.

And now they've "fast-tracked" a COVID-19 vaccine. Frankly, it's a gamble. It'll likely work out fine, BUT . . ., then again, _maybe_ it won't.

There are also *medications* that found their way to market before proper trials and vetting, like *thalidomide*.

It even happens with simple foods; remember those *olestra potato chips* that caused diarrhea? Yeah, those puppies made it all the way to supermarket shelves as a sort of "diet" snack.


----------



## KenOC

It was reported earlier that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has about a 60% efficacy rate when given as two full-dose injections, but that improves to 90% if the first injection is at a half-dose. This is somewhat puzzling. The issue is explored in this article, which also speculates on the "whys" of the matter.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Strange? No, it’s absolutely marvelous. Money and determination can move mountains.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Exactly. The *Cutter Incident* of the *Polio vaccine* trials is a prime example. There is still a lingering controversy about some vaccines that used to contain thimerisol (which breaks down to a mercury compound) causing autism. A very controversial issue with adherents to the opposing sides of the argument vehemently digging in their heels and crying "foul" on the other side.


There is no "lingering controversy." The one paper that purported to find a relationship between vaccines and autism was shown to be a fraud. There has been no data whatsoever that shows a relationship between any vaccine and autism. There is no "digging in their heels on both sides." There is science and there is superstition.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Superstition fostered by blatant misinformation, wild claims that can be easily proven false. For some people though proof is not enough. They need to feel superior, smarter than everyone else, by taking established facts and drawing an opposite conclusion from them. 

The internet was supposed to make everyone feel connected to everyone else, regardless of physical location, age, gender, disabilities, education.... Unfortunately it also requires a modicum of scepticism and reflection.


----------



## Luchesi

Baron Scarpia said:


> There is no "lingering controversy." The one paper that purported to find a relationship between vaccines and autism was shown to be a fraud. There has been no data whatsoever that shows a relationship between any vaccine and autism. There is no "digging in their heels on both sides." There is science and there is superstition.


I think you're correct, and I hope you're correct, but the idea of shooting many vaccines into VERY young children has always seemed scary to me. I understand that it would be inconvenient and it might be risky to delay the protection, but can't the shots be separated by a goodly amount of time?


----------



## NoCoPilot

Luchesi said:


> I think you're correct, and I hope you're correct, but the idea of shooting many vaccines into VERY young children has always seemed scary to me. I understand that it would be inconvenient and it might be risky to delay the protection, but can't the shots be separated by a goodly amount of time?


Actually immunizations given at a young age have the most effect. Our immune system peaks at puberty and declines afterward.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> It was reported earlier that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has about a 60% efficacy rate when given as two full-dose injections, but that improves to 90% if the first injection is at a half-dose. This is somewhat puzzling. The issue is explored in this article, which also speculates on the "whys" of the matter.


Good point, actually.

We DON'T KNOW. We're guessing, based on our observations and intuition and prior successes and failures.

But we often don't know how things actually "work". We observe what works and what doesn't, but may not know why.


----------



## Luchesi

NoCoPilot said:


> Actually immunizations given at a young age have the most effect. Our immune system peaks at puberty and declines afterward.


Every shot causes a sequence like this. How many vaccines are given in one visit?


----------



## NoCoPilot

MMR are given together. HPV is a one-time shot I think, as is chickenpox. Flu is every year.

Ah, here's the CDC recommended schedule:


----------



## Strange Magic

Evolutionists of the future, almost all of whom will be those whose ancestors had selected to be vaccinated against killer pathogens, will research the Darwinian aspect of the current debate about whether or not to vaccinate and be vaccinated.


----------



## DaveM

I wish that those who appear to agonize over the possible side-effects of vaccines that have been give together or separately for many years would spend more time educating themselves on the diseases that they are meant to prevent and the havoc they played on young children in the past.


----------



## pianozach

DaveM said:


> I wish that those who appear to agonize over the possible side-effects of vaccines that have been give together or separately for many years would spend more time educating themselves on the diseases that are meant to prevent and the havoc they played on young children in the past.


Ah, yes, the old weighing the problem against the dangers of the cure. It's the same with medications - at some point the toxins used to mask the symptoms of a disease have to be assessed as to the whether the side effects are worse than the disease(s) they're meant to treat.

Angels and ministers of grace, defend us!


----------



## NoCoPilot

pianozach said:


> ..at some point the toxins used to mask the symptoms of a disease have to be assessed as to the whether the side effects are worse than the disease(s) they're meant to treat.


What the heck!?!? Are you talking about 'killed virus' in vaccines?

Any way you look at vaccines -- and I mean ANY WAY -- you have to admit the incidence of side effects is minuscule compared to the devastation of the diseases they prevent. Only a total idiot would weigh them equally.


----------



## DaveM

pianozach said:


> Ah, yes, the old weighing the problem against the dangers of the cure. It's the same with medications - at some point the toxins used to mask the symptoms of a disease have to be assessed as to the whether the side effects are worse than the disease(s) they're meant to treat.
> 
> Angels and ministers of grace, defend us!


What toxins mask symptoms of what diseases where side effects are worse than the disease?

And since you're questioning my post regarding vaccines, specifically which vaccines have toxins which cause side effects worse than the disease?


----------



## Luchesi

DaveM said:


> I wish that those who appear to agonize over the possible side-effects of vaccines that have been give together or separately for many years would spend more time educating themselves on the diseases that are meant to prevent and the havoc they played on young children in the past.


I wonder if there's a limit to the amount of info from vaccines that a human can usefully store. What happens when a limit is reached? Earlier info is lost? Maybe we evolved and long-survived under the onslaught of fewer viral dangers.

I never took much biology. Is it obvious?


----------



## NoCoPilot

Luchesi said:


> I wonder if there's a limit to the amount of info from vaccines that a human can usefully store. What happens when a limit is reached? Earlier info is lost? Maybe we evolved and long-survived under the onslaught of fewer viral dangers.


Bad information displaces good.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> What the heck!?!? Are you talking about 'killed virus' in vaccines?
> 
> Any way you look at vaccines -- and I mean ANY WAY -- you have to admit the incidence of side effects is minuscule compared to the devastation of the diseases they prevent. Only a total idiot would weigh them equally.


_*This*_ is what happens when *you* read others' words while biased. You end up reading them incorrectly and start calling people names, like "total idiot".

In this case I was addressing

1. _*medicines*_ (toxins) that are dangerous. You've seen the print ads, with a page full of warnings and potential side effects. You've seen the TV ads where at the end someone talks through some of the complications really really really fast. Complications like "death".

2. Vaccines, medications, and other products that are rushed to without proper vetting or trials, whether it's poorly designed cribs, dangerous automobiles, food with questionable ingredients, or even medications that cause birth defects, like thalidomide.

I'm certainly _*not*_ "anti-vaccine". I'm "anti-rushing-a-vaccine-to-market-without-vetting-it".

I think that some vaccinations are given to children too early, that is, before their immune systems are even developed enough to handle the vaccines (Did you know that children do not have fully developed immune systems until they are about 7-8 years old? Are you familiar with the CDC immunization recommendations?) Yeah, I'd say that 2 months is a wee bit too early: 9 months seems a far more appropriate age (and is actually the CDCs recommended age for "catch-up immunization" anyway). But that's a different discussion.

Anyway, as a retired doctor, I'd say our quality of life has been vastly improved through the development of vaccines.

But the idea that the FDA would rush this process before late stage clinical trials are complete is incredibly risky.

Let me quote another doctor, Dr. Howard Markel, a pediatrician, distinguished professor, and director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan: _*"This is one of the most ridiculous things I've heard this administration say. All it takes is one bad side effect to basically botch a vaccine program that we desperately need against this virus. It's a prescription for disaster."*_

A too-early Emergency Use Authorization for a vaccine could cause a "nightmare scenario," for a few reasons:


The vaccine may not be safe. 
If it is not safe, people will lose faith in vaccines. 
If a vaccine doesn't offer complete protection, people will have a false sense of security and increase their risk. 
If a substandard vaccine gets an EUA, a better vaccine may never get approval, because people would be reluctant to enroll in trials and risk getting a placebo instead of a vaccine.

•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

_*"People are going to die unnecessarily if we take chances with this. We've got to get this right."*_ - Michael Kinch, a professor of radiation oncology in the school of medicine at Washington University in St. Louis.

§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§

Here's your homework:

The Cutter Incident: How America's First Polio Vaccine Led to a Growing Vaccine Crisis 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1383764/

*Past vaccine disasters show why rushing a coronavirus vaccine now would be 'colossally stupid'
*"From 1955 to 1963, between 10% and 30% of polio vaccines were contaminated with simian virus 40 (SV40)."
_. . . Swine flu vaccine causes cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome . . ._
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/eua-coronavirus-vaccine-history/index.html


----------



## pianozach

DaveM said:


> . . . *Thimerosal* is also used during the manufacturing process but is no longer an ingredient in any vaccine except multi-dose vials of the flu vaccine.


When *thimerosal* enters the body, it breaks down to ethylmercury and thiosalicylate.

*Methylmercury* is a known neurotoxicant.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> I wonder if there's a limit to the amount of info from vaccines that a human can usefully store. What happens when a limit is reached? Earlier info is lost? Maybe we evolved and long-survived under the onslaught of fewer viral dangers.
> 
> I never took much biology. Is it obvious?


A single cell doesn't have to store all immunity information. When the immune system encounters a new disease it (hopefully) creates some specialized immune cells against that disease that linger in the body and are activated if the disease is recognized again. The number of vaccinations is probably very small compared the the number of routine pathogens that a person has encountered in life and harbor some immunity for.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> When *thimerosal* enters the body, it breaks down to ethylmercury and thiosalicylate.
> 
> *Methylmercury* is a known neurotoxicant.


Well, it's a good thing it breaks down into ethylmercury and not methylmercury.

These things can be measured, you know, and they actually confirmed that children who received vaccines containing thimerosal did not end up with dangerous levels of mercury, and that eating a serving of tuna fish will give you more mercury than any vaccine.


----------



## DaveM

pianozach said:


> Anyway, as a retired doctor, I'd say our quality of life has been vastly improved through the development of vaccines. But the idea that the FDA would rush this process before late stage clinical trials are complete is incredibly risky.


While I sympathize with your concerns, you must be aware that in some circumstances certain risks must be accepted that wouldn't be ordinarily. As we speak, 2000 people a day are dying. I'd say that's a situation indicating the sort of risk/benefit judgment that physicians in high-risk specialties have been trained to face and perhaps this is the time to trust them.

I'd be concerned about the risk of inadequate/rushed Phase 3 trials for a vaccine for the common cold, but that's hardly what we're fighting here. (Typical Phase 4 trials will likely continue after release of the vaccines.)


----------



## KenOC

Something we might be thankful for today:

"A giant study of more than 12,000 mutations in the novel coronavirus finds none of them has made a big difference in how easily it infects people, researchers reported Wednesday.

"The mutations, found in more than 46,000 samples taken from 99 different countries, all appear to be neutral, the team of leading viral genetics experts reported in the journal Nature Communications."

Story *here*.


----------



## NoCoPilot

DaveM said:


> As we speak, 2000 people a day are dying.


And that is in the USA only. More like 12,000 worldwide.

To say this is an emergency would be an understatement on a grand scale. I agree rushing vaccines without full-scale testing is risky... but anything less than 12,000 deaths per day (and rising) is an improvement.

I'm sorry I called you a perfect idiot. Nobody's perfect.


----------



## NoCoPilot

pianozach said:


> _*This*_ is what happens when *you* read others' words while biased. You end up reading them incorrectly and start calling people names, like "total idiot".


By the way, I didn't actually call you, or anyone in particular, a "total idiot." I only pointed out that it would take one to hold that vaccines are more harmful than the diseases they prevent.

I'm sure we're all way too smart to hold THAT view.


----------



## DaveM

NoCoPilot said:


> And that is in the USA only. More like 12,000 worldwide.
> 
> To say this is an emergency would be an understatement on a grand scale. I agree rushing vaccines without full-scale testing is risky... but anything less than 12,000 deaths per day (and rising) is an improvement.
> 
> I'm sorry I called you a perfect idiot. Nobody's perfect.


If you're referring to your post #376, I'm not the one you were calling a perfect idiot.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Something we might be thankful for today:
> 
> "A giant study of more than 12,000 mutations in the novel coronavirus finds none of them has made a big difference in how easily it infects people, researchers reported Wednesday.
> 
> "The mutations, found in more than 46,000 samples taken from 99 different countries, all appear to be neutral, the team of leading viral genetics experts reported in the journal Nature Communications."
> 
> Story *here*.


Another recent study concludes that one particular mutation made the virus spread faster, but more vulnerable to antibodies, a mixed blessing. It's how science goes, contradictory findings in early days are eventually distilled in find a consensus.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201112144040.htm


----------



## NoCoPilot

Here in the good ol' USA the Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that churches are exempt from state guidelines limiting public gatherings.
*
SCOTUS wants to kill churchgoers.*

What does Clarence Thomas have against god???


----------



## KenOC

More on the Oxford vaccine dosage issue: 9,000 volunteers got the two full doses as planned, while 3,000 got a half-dose jab initially and then a full-dose jab a month later. Astonishingly, this seems to have been accidental! Efficacy for the first group was 62%, while the jabs were effective in 90% of the second, smaller group of volunteers.

Two issues: First, all of the people in the second group were under 55, so the efficacy of the half-dose full-dose approach is unknown for older people; second, I have to wonder if a screw-up of the magnitude that seems to have occurred in such a closely-watched and important trial will damage trust in the final trial results.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Science largely advances on serendipity.


----------



## SixFootScowl

NoCoPilot said:


> Here in the good ol' USA the Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that churches are exempt from state guidelines limiting public gatherings.
> *
> SCOTUS wants to kill churchgoers.*
> 
> What does Clarence Thomas have against god???


Your statement is absurd. All SCOTUS is doing is upholding the individuals right to make their own health decisions. Those who fear can wear a mask.


----------



## Bulldog

SixFootScowl said:


> Your statement is absurd. All SCOTUS is doing is upholding the individuals right to make their own health decisions. Those who fear can wear a mask.


Yes, the statement is absurd, but I consider it a fact that SCOTUS is playing a part in spreading COVID.


----------



## NoCoPilot

SixFootScowl said:


> Your statement is absurd. All SCOTUS is doing is upholding the individuals right to make their own health decisions. Those who fear can wear a mask.


"Make their own health decisions." And then walk the streets and visit grocery stores, sharing their bad decisions with perfect strangers.


----------



## joen_cph

A small church congregation held a coffee-&-cake family party here in Copenhagen just the other day, but not really keeping up with precaution measures. 30 people among them were then infected.


----------



## KenOC

In fact, I believe that the SCOTUS ruling was targeted on specific bans on worship gatherings in New York. It seems the court was impressed by arguments that higher-density gatherings were allowed in other venues, such as grocery stores, and thus the bans discriminated against the practice of religion.

I think broader conclusions concerning the court's intent are likely unwarranted.


----------



## NoCoPilot

KenOC said:


> I think broader conclusions concerning the court's intent are likely unwarranted.


Based on Amy Coney Barrett's history of writings, I think broader conclusions are inherently warranted, and obvious. This court will be the most regressive since Roger B. Taney's court


----------



## Strange Magic

I've been in churches and I've been in grocery stores. The population density of the former often is far greater than the latter. The Hassidic wedding incident in the Brooklyn synagogue was exactly the sort of potential superspreader event that Cuomo and DeBlasio hoped to curtail. But everything is in God's hands.......


----------



## DaveM

Why are people still putting out the ‘individuals should be able to make their own health decisions’ crap when it comes to the pandemic? If people choose to not wear masks in the presence of others particularly at close quarters indoors then they are making health decisions for those around them and they are not the right decisions. Indoor church services have been one of the most likely to be spreader events, far more than grocery stores, liquor stores, bike shops and other stores where people are moving past each other masked and with a few feet between.

This decision by SCOTUS appears to be the beginning of decisions that are going to put right-wing religion ahead of common sense. I wonder whether James Madison would have had in mind that, constitutionally, people should have been allowed to crowd into church services regardless of government directions not to during a smallpox epidemic? Or maybe in that day, it didn’t occur to him that people would be stupid enough to do so.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Darwinism at work. Except friends and relatives, and casual acquaintances, and passersby of the soon-to-be-eliminated-from-the-gene-pool will also be affected.

Oh well. There were too many people anyway.


----------



## NoCoPilot

NoCoPilot said:


> Based on Amy Coney Barrett's history of writings, I think broader conclusions are inherently warranted, and obvious. This court will be the most regressive since Roger B. Taney's court


The GOOD news is that Supreme Court justices can be impeached, and at least three of them have already provided impeachable conduct.


----------



## adriesba

................................................


----------



## KenOC

NoCoPilot said:


> Based on Amy Coney Barrett's history of writings, I think broader conclusions are inherently warranted, and obvious. This court will be the most regressive since Roger B. Taney's court


Indeed. Like you, I have noticed that rulings I find disagreeable are almost always the result of regressive and even Neanderthal political and societal biases of knuckle-dragging judges, while more agreeable rulings are usually models of top-drawer and even-handed jurisprudence!


----------



## mmsbls

This thread is about vaccines and the coronavirus. It is not about politics or religion. Please make sure your posts focus on the coronavirus.


----------



## DaveM

After millions crowded in airports over the last few days and the family gatherings apparently planned, we’re in for a heck of a spike in this pandemic in 1-2 weeks. It’s not an exaggeration that thousands of deaths may be the result, many of which may be the older mothers, fathers, grandmothers and grandfathers that were being visited.


----------



## pianozach

mmsbls said:


> This thread is about vaccines and the coronavirus. It is not about politics or religion. Please make sure your posts focus on the coronavirus.


Man, yeah, policing this thread on the pandemic, the disease, the handling, and the vaccine, has got to be irritating.

You're aware that the problem is NOT because WE are inserting religion and politics into IT, but rather, religion and politics have inserted themselves into the issues of vaccines and the coronavirus?


----------



## Strange Magic

pianozach said:


> Man, yeah, policing this thread on the pandemic, the disease, the handling, and the vaccine, has got to be irritating.
> 
> You're aware that the problem is NOT because WE are inserting religion and politics into IT, but rather, religion and politics have inserted themselves into the issues of vaccines and the coronavirus?


Specimen thread downstairs in the political Groups.....

https://www.talkclassical.com/group...tion-us-politics--d1868-covid-19-and-the.html


----------



## NoCoPilot

pianozach said:


> You're aware that the problem is NOT because WE are inserting religion and politics into IT, but rather, religion and politics have inserted themselves into the issues of vaccines and the coronavirus?


Point of order: religion and politics don't insert _themselves _into anything. PEOPLE insert religion and politics into places where they don't belong, like public health during a pandemic. It's just shameful, and has led to many unnecessary deaths and is leading to many more.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> Point of order: religion and politics don't insert _themselves _into anything. PEOPLE insert religion and politics into places where they don't belong, like public health during a pandemic. It's just shameful, and has led to many unnecessary deaths and is leading to many more.


Thank you for the correction of a significant detail.

Details and context are important, and are often missing in discussions of import.


----------



## pianozach

Strange Magic said:


> Specimen thread downstairs in the political Groups.....
> 
> https://www.talkclassical.com/group...tion-us-politics--d1868-covid-19-and-the.html


Thanks. I often forget that there are groups for more contentious subjects, and even when I remember, I can't remember how to find them.

Once there it seems that the format isn't the same or something . . .


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## Strange Magic

https://www.aol.com/lifestyle/study-...224321438.html

"WASHINGTON - Face coverings, including masks made of cloth, are highly effective in protecting the people who wear them as well as those around them, according to a new study from Linsey Marr, a leading aerosol scientist at Virginia Tech University.

"Filtration works both ways," Marr said. "If it works for source control," she said during a media presentation on Monday - that is, if the mask filters out particles coming from the wearer's mouth - "it's going to work pretty well for exposure reduction to protect the wearer also."

Testing 11 different types of face coverings (nine cloth masks made from coffee filters, cotton and other materials, a surgical mask and a face shield), Marr and co-author Jin Pan found that many of the materials they "challenged" with particles meant to simulate the coronavirus exhibited a 75 percent filtration capacity. A high-quality cloth mask consisting of three layers could allow filtration as high as 90 percent. Crucially, that accounts for incoming particles as well as outgoing ones.

The efficacy of surgical masks had been widely known. Their use was endorsed in a Wall Street Journal op-ed by former Food and Drug Administration head Scott Gottlieb published on Sunday evening. He encouraged people to wear N95 respirators or, failing that, surgical masks. "The level of protection depends on the type of the mask," he wrote, cautioning people away from bandanas and other loosely-fitting face coverings.

Marr's study suggests that cloth masks work better than some have claimed, in part because many virus-bearing particles are significantly larger than previously thought. Her study adds crucial new information about the relative benefits of cloth masks, which people find easier to wear - and more stylish - than their light-blue medical counterparts.

In particular, the study noted that a mask that contains an interior filter made from a common vacuum bag "achieved outstanding performance."

The question of specific materials aside, the study counters the long-held misconception that masks do not protect those who wear them. Last week, some right-wing media outlets seized on a Danish study whose methodology has been criticized as slipshod and whose findings have been deemed inconclusive."


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## Flamme

pianozach said:


> Man, yeah, policing this thread on the pandemic, the disease, the handling, and the vaccine, has got to be irritating.
> 
> You're aware that the problem is NOT because WE are inserting religion and politics into IT, but rather, religion and politics have inserted themselves into the issues of vaccines and the coronavirus?


Groups that were on fringes, like anti-vaxxers, are now the MAIN-STREAM why do you think it is so? I know many people who got all the vaccines before and werent against it but now have second thoughts...


----------



## Open Book

Strange Magic said:


> https://www.aol.com/lifestyle/study-...224321438.html
> 
> "WASHINGTON - Face coverings, including masks made of cloth, are highly effective in protecting the people who wear them as well as those around them, according to a new study from Linsey Marr, a leading aerosol scientist at Virginia Tech University.
> ......
> 
> The question of specific materials aside, the study counters the long-held misconception that masks do not protect those who wear them. Last week, some right-wing media outlets seized on a Danish study whose methodology has been criticized as slipshod and whose findings have been deemed inconclusive."


There are supposedly three levels of medical masks (besides the N95 ones) and you can google the descriptions of the level of protection each offers. I never see much official recommendation as to what level is appropriate for COVID-19 protection. I would think level 3, the highest, is what you should go for if possible but that is not what is on the shelves of the big pharmacies. Most of those are unmarked, actually.

You want a multilayer mask, not the cheap single ply paper ones I was given as a visitor to my local hospital at the start of the pandemic (and which they have since replaced with better ones).

I have decided that two masks might be best. I wear one into the doctor's office where they always tell me to remove my mask and take one of theirs because they know theirs are fresh -- except that everyone else has been sticking their fingers into the same box to pull out a mask. So I put theirs over mine and they are OK with that.

There is a lack of guidance from authorities on mask use and everything pandemic-related, as if the authorities are reluctant to be too authoritative. Maybe they are afraid to take any strong stance since things are changing all the time. After all, Trump never lets Fauci forget he said something months ago that is now known to be wrong--of course that's the nature of scientific knowledge.

Or maybe the authorities know that some people will resist directives and they don't want to push it too much. I am glad to live in a blue state where most people comply because they understand that it takes everyone's cooperation to fight this virus.


----------



## Open Book

Flamme said:


> Groups that were on fringes, like anti-vaxxers, are now the MAIN-STREAM why do you think it is so? I know many people who got all the vaccines before and werent against it but now have second thoughts...


People of a certain age got their first vaccines as kids and had no say in the matter, but they probably got used to the idea of vaccination. Most of these were lifetime vaccines so there was never a need to reconsider vaccination in their adulthood. Until recently.

Now we have vaccines that must be taken every year and people start to ask why. Especially if it's for something like flu which most people don't fear very much. And they have no memory of the terrible diseases which these lifetime vaccines wiped out so they've gotten complacent about the need for vaccination.

The resistance toward a COVID-10 vaccine is partly because some people don't fear this disease very much. They observe that its deadliness is mostly limited to older people whom nobody really cares much about, let's face it. No one wants to be old and no one wants to think about older people and everyone would like their inheritance. Or sick or overweight people -- get in shape and watch your diet and you'll be fine, right?

Of course COVID-19 kills some young healthy people but not enough of them to make a deep impression, apparently. The lasting effects it leaves on some people who survive it don't seem to worry too many people either even though we don't know the full extent of those yet.


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## NoCoPilot




----------



## NoCoPilot

Flamme said:


> Groups that were on a fringes, like anti-vaxxers, are now the MAIN-STREAM why do you think it is so? I know many people who got all the vaccines before and werent against it but now have second thoughts...


Anti-vaccine sentiment may seem "mainstream" to you - and we can acknowledge that this fringe belief is more popular than ever - but the science hasn't changed. Reality isn't decided by a popularity contest. Just because a lot of people believe fringe anti-science doesn't make it any more valid.

And nothing is more dangerous than misinformation in a global health crisis.


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## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> Anti-vaccine sentiment may seem "mainstream" to you - and we can acknowledge that this fringe belief is more popular than ever - but the science hasn't changed. Reality isn't decided by a popularity contest. Just because a lot of people believe fringe anti-science doesn't make it any more valid.
> 
> And nothing is more dangerous than misinformation in a global health crisis.


This again reminds me that our media has a hand in legitimizing "fringe anti-science" by pretending that there are two equal sides to every story.

_"Here's our panel today:

"First, astronomer Saul Adelman from The Citadel's Physics Department in Charleston, South Carolina, and co-author of Bound for the Stars: Travel in the Solar System and Beyond.

"We also welcome, by satellite feed, president Kay Burns of The Flat Earth Society, a multidisciplinary artist specializing in performance art, locative media, audio, video, photography, sculpture, and installation.

"Let's start with Ms. Burns, or should we address you by your performance persona, Flat Earther alter ego, Iris Taylor?"_


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## Luchesi

Flat Earther = a dog barking at a vacuum cleaner.


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## NoCoPilot

Luchesi said:


> Flat Earther = a dog barking at a vacuum cleaner.


Nature abhors a vacuum.


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## pianozach

There is probably an *alternate universe* where _*vacuum*_ rhymes with _*orange*_.

It's funny because in that alternate universe, "vacuum" is the word they use for "vaccine".


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## Luchesi

pianozach said:


> There is probably an *alternate universe* where _*vacuum*_ rhymes with _*orange*_.
> 
> It's funny because in that alternate universe, "vacuum" is the word they use for "vaccine".


door hinge but it's two words


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## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> door hinge but it's two words


I hear a song in that rhyme:

_S(h)e came in dressed in orange
To the creaking of the door hinge_ ...


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## Flamme

Soo many people in my surrounding dying its just mind blowing...My aunts neighbour, the bass player of a famous yugoslavian group...Had some colleagues over and told them its not a time to party


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## joen_cph

Flamme said:


> Soo many people in my surrounding dying its just mind blowing...My aunts neighbour, the bass player of a famous yugoslavian group...Had some colleagues over and told them its not a time to party


Sad to hear about this. Stay strong.


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## pianozach

Had an actress friend of mine just come down with COVID-19. She was in a high risk group after having some health issues related to medications she was taking. We were in MASTERCLASS (the show) together, and I also accompanied a show she directed.

She had been VERY careful about guarding her health during the pandemic. Very. But somehow she contracted it anyway, ended up in the hospital, and put her on hospice care, meaning they didn't expect her to live. She's home now, but I'm not sure how she's doing NOW.

Her friend passed along the information on the 23rd:

_Hello theatre and other friends.

I just wanted to update everyone about ***** ***********. I just talked to John ******, and he has given me a fairly complete rundown.

So - what I didn't feel was my place to say earlier, but have now been given the go ahead, is that ***** contracted Covid. I have NO IDEA HOW, because I know she was trying to be very careful. She was in the hospital for a week, and they brought her home on Friday the 13th. Her condition had basically been going up and down, and she was put on hospice care on Tuesday. John has been with staying with her the entire time. She has been receiving treatments which seem to be helping, but as I said, it seems to be going one step forward, two steps back, etc. He DID say that her oxygen levels in the last couple of days were in the 90s, which is GREAT and he did just give me the impression right now that she seems to be better today. She even asked for food, which is news that has made me feel better than I've felt all week.

I continue to have hope and once again ask the prayer warriors and energy healers to send whatever type of energy you believe in. John asked if you would please refrain from texting him. He has been taking care of her 24/7 like the hero that he is, but he gets overwhelmed. He asked me to be the ... community liaison? ... as it were, and because I love *****, I said "Of Course!".

He says that ***** is starting to look at her phone a little, so if you want to continue leaving loving messages, photos or good times, etc, on her page - something that won't set her phone off - that would be great. If you want to message me, that's fine - go ahead and blow up my phone - I'll tell you all the information I have been given permission to share (which is basically what I've told you right now).

And, as all of you, I continue to hope and believe that our dear ***** will get better. And as for all of you ... Everyone stay safe. Everyone stay healthy. XOXO_


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## Flamme

joen_cph said:


> Sad to hear about this. Stay strong.


Tnx. Its not that I really know those people, they are acquaintances at best and people from tv at worst but its not that its the atmosphere of fear, that englufs me like a thick winter fog...The fog of distrusting people and keeping away...Like everyone I see carries a question mark above his head...


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## NoCoPilot

The advice I heard, early on, from Anthony Fauci and others still holds true today.

Assume everyone you encounter is infected, unless you know otherwise. Assume you yourself are infected, and just not showing symptoms yet. Wear a mask in public, socially distance, wash your hands, be careful touching public things other people touch like door handles and credit card readers. The virus is everywhere. It's not magical, it can't jump through barriers or get you in your sleep -- but out in public, yes, take reasonable precautions.


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## Strange Magic

Avoid spreading the strange nonsense that COVID is being exaggerated, is a creation of "enemies", that masks are unimportant and true patriotism is shown by spurning masks (I'll bet Jefferson and Franklin would have worn masks, as they were friends of science and enlightenment). Our healthcare system and its workers are under siege. Real Americans, real patriots do their best to help their fellow citizens and their country. Some need to sit down, get their priorities straight, and think.


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## NoCoPilot

"Think." What a concept.

Not easy for some


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## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> The advice I heard, early on, from Anthony Fauci and others still holds true today.
> 
> Assume everyone you encounter is infected, unless you know otherwise. Assume you yourself are infected, and just not showing symptoms yet. Wear a mask in public, socially distance, wash your hands, be careful touching public things other people touch like door handles and credit card readers. The virus is everywhere. It's not magical, it can't jump through barriers or get you in your sleep -- but out in public, yes, take reasonable precautions.


Sounds like the red menace of the 1960s to me; be terribly afraid. That way your government can keep you under control. Your comments might even be from the script of "*The Blob*". A perfect metaphor for our times, though originally made about the 'red' menace of the 1950s during the Cold War.






Stop being fearful and control your own health with sensible eating, exercise and lifestyle choices.


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## Strange Magic

Amazing! Maybe vitamins--lots of vitamins--prevents both COVID and the "hysteria" that is seizing the world's epidemiologists. There must be something in the water in Australia.......


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## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Amazing! Maybe vitamins--lots of vitamins--prevents both COVID and the "hysteria" that is seizing the world's epidemiologists. There must be something in the water in Australia.......


You can get your own copy of "The Blob" through Amazon. It might be insightful but, on the other hand, maybe not.

I've not seen one single hysterical epidemiologist - only the political variety (for obvious reasons of command and control).

And I certainly hope this is going to stop old people from dying; that's just not on!! A former French President died yesterday from Covid-19. At the age of 94. I don't call that civilized.


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## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Sounds like the red menace of the 1960s to me; be terribly afraid. That way your government can keep you under control.


I guess I'm missing something. What is this connection you see between A MASK MANDATE and the government "controlling" you? Wouldn't "the government" want to keep businesses open and people circulating and spending money? How is shutting down the economy for public health reasons of benefit to the government?

You make it sound so simple. 'Splain it to me.


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## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> I guess I'm missing something. What is this connection you see between A MASK MANDATE and the government "controlling" you? Wouldn't "the government" want to keep businesses open and people circulating and spending money? How is shutting down the economy for public health reasons of benefit to the government?
> 
> You make it sound so simple. 'Splain it to me.


It's no good; you need your fear and hysteria to justify the government's right to keep you under house arrest. They do this instead of the more effective contact tracing. Just keep everybody at home - never mind the suicides and other mental health issues. Old people are dying!! What's the world coming to?


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## NoCoPilot

Wha? What benefit is *quarantining *to the government?


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## adriesba

Christabel said:


> It's no good; you need your fear and hysteria to justify the government's right to keep you under house arrest. They do this instead of the more effective contact tracing. Just keep everybody at home - never mind the suicides and other mental health issues. Old people are dying!! What's the world coming to?


So covid is only worth worrying about if young people are dying?

Also, contact tracing cannot be our only method of fighting covid because many people who get it have little to no symptoms. There's not a good way to trace these cases.


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## NoCoPilot

Don't get distracted by secondary or tertiary arguments --

I want the CENTRAL THRUST of Christabel's argument explained to me. *Pretend I'm a 5-year old,* and you must make me understand WHY the government wants me to STAY AT HOME, TO QUARANTINE, TO NOT GO OUT IN PUBLIC. Make it very simple so I can understand.

Why is the government telling people this?


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## Strange Magic

Christabel, make plans to come immediately to the USA and join the ranks of our native mask-fighters, contact tracing opponents and foot-draggers, big government conspiracy freaks, George Soros and Bill Gates conspiracy freaks, weird cure nutjobs, healthcare system shatterers, and mix-and-mingle enthusiasts. I think the "disease" we've been suffering from here for four years has spread across the Pacific.


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## Guest

Here's my back-of-an-envelope epidemiological calculation. People who die from covid usually succumb 3-4 weeks after diagnosis. So the number of deaths per day reflects the number of diagnoses per day from a month prior. Today we have about 2,500 deaths per day and a month ago we had about 60,000 cases diagnosed per day. Today we have about 200,000 cases diagnosed per day. That's about a factor of 3 increase. So a month from now we can expect three times as many deaths per day. 7,500 deaths per day by the January 1, 2021.

Let's hope the vaccine can be distributed quickly and that it works.


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## pianozach

Baron Scarpia said:


> Here's my back-of-an-envelope epidemiological calculation. People who die from covid usually succumb 3-4 weeks after diagnosis. So the number of deaths per day reflects the number of diagnoses per day from a month prior. Today we have about 2,500 deaths per day and a month ago we had about 60,000 cases diagnosed per day. Today we have about 200,000 cases diagnosed per day. That's about a factor of 3 increase. So a month from now we can expect three times as many deaths per day. 7,500 deaths per day by the January 1, 2021.
> 
> Let's hope the vaccine can be distributed quickly and that it works.


Saw a news report yesterday that gave a potential priority list and timeline for rolling out the vaccine.

*PHASE 1a*
High risk workers in health care facilities
First responders

*PHASE 1B*
People of all ages with comorbid and underlying conditions that put them at significantly higher risk
Older adults living congregate or overcrowded settings

*PHASE 2*
Critical risk workers
Teachers and school staff
People in homeless shelters
Detainees and staff in jails, detention centers

*PHASE 3*
Young adults
Children
"Essential" workers

*PHASE 4*
Leftovers

Phase 4 vaccinations probably wouldn't happen until April.

There are OTHER proposed rollout scenarios as well


----------



## adriesba

pianozach said:


> Saw a news report yesterday that gave a potential priority list and timeline for rolling out the vaccine.
> 
> *PHASE 1a*
> High risk workers in health care facilities
> First responders
> 
> *PHASE 1B*
> People of all ages with comorbid and underlying conditions that put them at significantly higher risk
> Older adults living congregate or overcrowded settings
> 
> *PHASE 2*
> Critical risk workers
> Teachers and school staff
> People in homeless shelters
> Detainees and staff in jails, detention centers
> 
> *PHASE 3*
> Young adults
> Children
> "Essential" workers
> 
> *PHASE 4*
> Leftovers
> 
> Phase 4 vaccinations probably wouldn't happen until April.
> 
> There are OTHER proposed rollout scenarios as well


What is the reasoning for putting young adults in phase 3 instead of 4?


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## Open Book

And what about older adults who don't live in a communal setting? They are not even mentioned so they must be leftovers, below young adults. Is this because they are presumed retired and able to shelter at home? That's quite a sweeping assumption.


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## NoCoPilot

*Open Book* wrote:

"And what about older adults who don't live in a communal setting? They are not even mentioned so they must be leftovers, below young adults. Is this because they are presumed retired and able to shelter at home? That's quite a sweeping assumption."

Well, speaking as a representative of a group of one, I'm retired. I mostly stay at home. When I venture out for groceries or other necessities I always take proper precautions. I'll happily assign myself to Phase 4 so other, more-at-risk individuals can get their vaccine.

Two points:
1. Is "phase 4" anything like "group W bench" from Alice's Restaurant?





2. It won't be April. It probably won't even be 2021. I'm guessing midyear 2022 to get the majority of people vaccinated, even *IF* you figure in all the science-zeros who opt out.


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## pianozach

..........
..........
..........


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## pianozach

adriesba said:


> What is the reasoning for putting young adults in phase 3 instead of 4?


Very likely the age demographics of cases and deaths. Children seem to be less likely to become a case OR a death.

I imagine that the final version of the US rollout will be a variation of this list.

The UK already has their own rollout list:

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) in the U.K. set out on Wednesday who it believes should received the vaccine first, noting that "the first priorities for any Covid-19 vaccination programme should be the prevention of COVID-19 mortality and the protection of health and social care staff and systems."

The priority list is as follows:


Residents in a care home for older adults and their carers
Those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
Those 75 years of age and over
Those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals
Those 65 years of age and over
Individuals aged 16 years to 64 years with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease and mortality
Those 60 years of age and over
Those 55 years of age and over
Those 50 years of age and over


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## Open Book

NoCoPilot said:


> *Open Book* wrote:
> 
> "And what about older adults who don't live in a communal setting? They are not even mentioned so they must be leftovers, below young adults. Is this because they are presumed retired and able to shelter at home? That's quite a sweeping assumption."
> 
> Well, speaking as a representative of a group of one, I'm retired. I mostly stay at home. When I venture out for groceries or other necessities I always take proper precautions. I'll happily assign myself to Phase 4 so other, more-at-risk individuals can get their vaccine.
> 
> Two points:
> 1. Is "phase 4" anything like "group W bench" from Alice's Restaurant?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2. It won't be April. It probably won't even be 2021. I'm guessing midyear 2022 to get the majority of people vaccinated, even *IF* you figure in all the science-zeros who opt out.


Not everybody in their 60's and above has the luxury of retirement. Some still have to work, often among other people. Most of these jobs would probably be classified as essential, but maybe some jobs will fall through the cracks.

And what about people in their 50's? They have some risk, too. No matter how you apportion it, you're going to displease someone, of course.

Why do you think it will take so long to vaccinate everybody?


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## pianozach

Open Book said:


> Why do you think it will take so long to vaccinate everybody?


Well, in the USA, we have a population of 331 million people spread out over 3.797 million mi².

If you vaccinated one person per second, it would take 11.5 days to vaccinate just one million people. At that rate it would take 3800 days (or 10 and a half years) to vaccinate all 331 million people.

And I believe that some of those vaccines have to been given in TWO doses at different times. So . . . one vaccination per second works out to 21 years.

You work out the logistics.


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## Guest

pianozach said:


> Well, in the USA, we have a population of 331 million people spread out over 3.797 million mi².
> 
> If you vaccinated one person per second, it would take 11.5 days to vaccinate just one million people. At that rate it would take 3800 days (or 10 and a half years) to vaccinate all 331 million people.
> 
> And I believe that some of those vaccines have to been given in TWO doses at different times. So . . . one vaccination per second works out to 21 years.
> 
> You work out the logistics.


I don't know what a vaccination every second has to do with anything. Every year about 50% of the population in the U.S. gets a flu shot. The flu shots are given in the fall, over a four month period. It is possible to vaccinate the entire U.S. population over a year, as long as they get the manufacturing of the vaccines worked out, as well as the logistics of distributing a vaccine that has much more stringent storage requirements. It's doable, but there are numerous links in the chain that have to hold.


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## Open Book

Presumably we have more than one nurse giving the vaccine. OK, that's flippant, a nurse can only do so many shots in a day.

We manage to vaccinate millions of people for the flu each year, in just a few months usually, since it's a fall/winter thing. Google says the manufacturers expect to make about 200 million doses of flu vaccine. Presumably they expect to use it up.


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## adriesba

pianozach said:


> Very likely the age demographics of cases and deaths. Children seem to be less likely to become a case OR a death.


Yes, but based on that outline, young adults could potentially get it before middle-age people.


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## pianozach

adriesba said:


> Yes, but based on that outline, young adults could potentially get it before middle-age people.


I'm surprised that the rollout timeline isn't just a variation of the sexist 1950s Polio rollout. That one was a lifeboats version: Women and children first.


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## Open Book

pianozach said:


> I'm surprised that the rollout timeline isn't just a variation of the sexist 1950s Polio rollout. That one was a lifeboats version: Women and children first.


Feminism changed that. As for children, they are such low risk with this virus. Still, if your own child gets very sick, it's awful.

It's also awful that it should happen to someone just starting out in life. But by saying that I am putting more of a value on children and I think we want to put the same value on everybody these days, when possible.


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## pianozach

Baron Scarpia said:


> I don't know what a vaccination every second has to do with anything. Every year about 50% of the population in the U.S. gets a flu shot. The flu shots are given in the fall, over a four month period. It is possible to vaccinate the entire U.S. population over a year, as long as they get the manufacturing of the vaccines worked out, as well as the logistics of distributing a vaccine that has much more stringent storage requirements. It's doable, but there are numerous links in the chain that have to hold.


Just trying to point out the magnitude of getting a vaccine that must be stored at -42°F delivered and administered to 331 million people.

*Open Book* asked why it would take so long, because I mentioned that it could take up to four months. I did the math.

If we started vaccinating on January 1, with a goal of vaccinating EVERYONE by April 30, that would mean giving 331 million people vaccinations in 120 days, or 2.75 million vaccinations per day, every day (including New Year's Day, MLK Day, Chinese New Year. Valentine's Day, Presidents Day, Passover, St. Patrick's Day and Easter).

THAT's why it will take so long. I don't see a path to innoculating 331 million people in 30 days.

I'm NOT trying to infer that there will be ONE line, nor that ONE nurse could vaccinate ONE person every second. That's impossible. Every vaccination will be counted, tracked. A dose and a hypodermic needle will be coupled, an arm will be swabbed, a form will be filled out.

Sure, 100 million flu vaccines are given every year. People come in voluntarily, and no one is forced to get one. Homeless people aren't tracked down to have a flu vaccine forced on them. People living in sparsely populated areas don't bother.

A mandatory mass vaccination won't be as simple as doctors and pharmacists giving them out in offices and drugstores to people that show up on their doorstep.

I'll be curious as to what measures, if any, will be taken against people that refuse to be vaccinated. Will Marshall's come to their door with a medical SWAT team that tazes them, or nets them like an animal. Will people be strapped down to enforce compliance? Aneasthetized like a bear roaming in the suburbs?

FUN FACT: In the 1950s the polio vaccine had to be delivered to some parts of Alaska by dogsled.

FUN FACT #2: I was part of the polio sugar cube public school rollout. Of course, everyone was far more compliant and trusting back then. Of course, back then many of the parents of those children knew someone that had been stricken or killed by polio. No one objected; everyone willingly lined up. Of course, Polio killed my father before I was even a year old, so my mother was probably _*all for*_ a free polio vaccination.

The school method was a reliable method back then. Each school knew who their students were, and giving the children sugar cubes was almost as easy as taking attendance.


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## Open Book

You don't have to vaccinate every last person for herd immunity either. Maybe 70% or less?


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## pianozach

Open Book said:


> You don't have to vaccinate every last person for herd immunity either. Maybe 70% or less?


I don't think that there's a definitive answer for COVID-19 yet.

Herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated.

For polio, the threshold is about 80%.

Typically, herd immunity is achieved when 70% to 90% of the population is immune through natural infection or vaccination. Even if herd immunity is achieved, it might not be uniform across the population, so outbreaks could still occur.

Questions also remain about how long immunity to COVID-19 lasts. Although immunity to measles is estimated to be lifelong, that is not the case for other infectious diseases. Analyses of other viruses related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 have shown that infection provides some immunity, but it doesn't appear to last more than a year.


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## Open Book

There will be people either refusing vaccination altogether or waiting to see how safe it is.


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## NoCoPilot

Yes -- at least 30% will refuse vaccination. Therefore we're going to need to hit *everyone* who agrees to be vaccinated, which will take not four months, not a year, but more likely two years or more (consider rural Africa or India or SE Asia).

And it's two shots, 21 days apart.

And the Pfizer vaccine has to be stored at -94℉ (-70℃) which is beyond the means of any small or mobile facilities.
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/covid_19_vaccine_u_s_distribution_fact_sheet

And 'herd immunity' only works if non-immunized people rub shoulders with the immunized. If non-imm hang out with other non-imm, they're a COVID disaster waiting to happen.


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## Open Book

But at least you can choose to be vaccinated yourself and be protected. It's better than a mask when you're around people who refuse to be vaccinated or even masked.

If any proportion of the population is vaccinated it has to slow the spread of the disease from what it can potentially reach, even if there isn't herd immunity.


----------



## Roger Knox

It looks like vaccination for COVID-19, instead of being seen as a blessing, will become yet another conflict-ridden issue politicized by a certain group of people for maximum effect. I hope we will be educated with accurate information and that communications will not be loaded up with falsehoods from sources that are not credible.


----------



## KenOC

One US health authority recently said that 70% of the US population could be vaccinated by May of next year, and that number would be sufficient for herd immunity. His opinion, of course, but Dr. Fauci agrees that 70% will confer herd immunity.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Again, 'herd immunity' *does not mean everyone is immune*.

It simply means infected people will encounter and infect, on average, less than one person. The spread of the disease therefore falls from _exponential_ (as it is today) to _incremental_, with an r-naught in the range of one or less.
https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning

Those of you planning to skip vaccination, and letting other people provide your protection? It doesn't work that way.


----------



## Guest

I tried to post something here, and I got a message saying my post was an "exploit" and that the site was "hardened" against me. Now it gave in but I don't particularly want to type it in again.


----------



## Flamme

Hardened lol...Maybe your PC is infected with SOFTware covidona virus...


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## Guest

Flamme said:


> Hardened lol...Maybe your PC is infected with SOFTware covidona virus...


I doubt there is anything wrong with my computer. After an hour I could post on the same thread (above) just fine using the same browser and computer.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> One US health authority recently said that 70% of the US population could be vaccinated by May of next year, and that number would be sufficient for herd immunity. His opinion, of course, but Dr. Fauci agrees that 70% will confer herd immunity.


Sorry, I thought over 200 million Americans had died already. Both the President-elect and VP-elect said so during the campaign.


----------



## joen_cph

Christabel said:


> Sorry, I thought over 200 million Americans had died already. Both the President-elect and VP-elect said so during the campaign.


Everyone acknowledges - and realized immediately - that this was just a slip of tongue.

I could think of worse problems as regards this subject, accentuated by those in power - denial, lack of efficiency, or facilitating fatalities, for example.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Open Book said:


> If any proportion of the population is vaccinated it has to slow the spread of the disease *from what it can potentially reach,* even if there isn't herd immunity.


Important point here. "Slow the spread"? Absolutely. By not having EVERYONE susceptible, the spread is slowed considerably.

"What it can potentially reach"? No. Everyone who is unvaccinated is still vulnerable to getting COVID-19, if and when they come in contact with a person who is transmissable.


----------



## Guest

joen_cph said:


> Everyone acknowledges - and realized immediately - that this was just a slip of tongue.
> 
> I could think of worse problems as regards this subject, accentuated by those in power - denial, lack of efficiency, or facilitating fatalities, for example.


I'm sure Oscar Wilde would have said something appropriate about two people making the same slip of a tongue. But it's funny to see it defended; I guess it was the right people making the slip, after all.

It's what that 'slip' tells us about the incoming crew which is pertinent. If it's not on the autocue they don't know anything about it.


----------



## joen_cph

Christabel said:


> I'm sure Oscar Wilde would have said something appropriate about two people making the same slip of a tongue. But it's funny to see it defended; I guess it was the right people making the slip, after all.
> 
> It's what that 'slip' tells us about the incoming crew which is pertinent. If it's not on the autocue they don't know anything about it.


I think you are underestimating that crew.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Dr. Fauci has said he's against mandatory vaccination.

But what about your employer? If you work on a production line with other workers -- if you work in an office with other workers -- if you interact with the public on a daily basis -- can your employer require you to get vaccinated?

Interesting dilemma.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/can-employer-require-covid-vaccine_l_5fc932c1c5b613828e3324a6


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> Sorry, I thought over 200 million Americans had died already. Both the President-elect and VP-elect said so during the campaign.


. . . And there it is again.

For every slip of the tongue, or word wart, that slips from Joe Biden's lips, I can easily find 10 from Trump.


----------



## Open Book

NoCoPilot said:


> Dr. Fauci has said he's against mandatory vaccination, which would be immensely unpopular among the red hatted mouthbreathers.
> 
> But what about your employer? If you work on a production line with other workers -- if you work in an office with other workers -- if you interact with the public on a daily basis -- can your employer require you to get vaccinated?
> 
> Interesting dilemma.
> https://www.huffpost.com/entry/can-employer-require-covid-vaccine_l_5fc932c1c5b613828e3324a6


But if _you_ get vaccinated you presumably don't have to worry about the person working shoulder to shoulder with you not being vaccinated. You should be totally protected.

Unlike the situation with masks where the coworker's decision not to wear a mask increases your risk of catching the virus from him, whether you are masked or not. You are not totally protected by your own decision to wear a mask, you depend on his decision.

Yet mask use, which should be easier to comply with, is not universally practiced and is weakly enforced by the law even when ordered.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> Sorry, I thought over 200 million Americans had died already. Both the President-elect and VP-elect said so during the campaign.


Fishing for paramecia and amebas again? Everyone but............knows that these were slips of the tongue. But we are supposed to take this seriously?? Bring something to the table!


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## Open Book

It's like she doesn't even want to see the virus conquered, she's just willing to live with it. Live with an addtitional source of death (no, people aren't dying _with _the virus, they are dying _from _the virus) forever.

Liberals want to change things, sometimes too much and too fast. Some conservatives don't want to change anything, even when it means making things better. They're comfortable keeping things the same and toughing it out, and survival of the fittest. It's macho.

It's a psychological difference between liberals and conservatives.

I'll probably be warned now.


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> *But if you get vaccinated you presumably don't have to worry about the person working shoulder to shoulder with you not being vaccinated. You should be totally protected.*
> 
> Unlike the situation with masks where the coworker's decision not to wear a mask increases your risk of catching the virus from him, whether you are masked or not. You are not totally protected by your own decision to wear a mask, you depend on his decision.
> 
> Yet mask use, which should be easier to comply with, is not universally practiced and is weakly enforced by the law even when ordered.


_"But if you get vaccinated you presumably don't have to worry about the person working shoulder to shoulder with you not being vaccinated. You should be totally protected."_

Not quite. Vaccines are not "total" protection. *No vaccine is 100% effective.*

First off, there is "*efficacy*", and there's "*effectiveness*".

*Efficacy* is measured in controlled clinical trials, whereas *effectiveness* is measured once the vaccine is approved for use in the general population. From these we can identify the proportion of vaccinated people we would expect to be protected by the vaccine.

A small percentage of people are not protected after vaccination and for others the protection may wane over time. Also, some people are unable to be vaccinated due to certain conditions such as immune suppression. Maintaining immunity in those around _*these*_ people protects _*them*_ from disease.

So . . . while vaccine effectiveness can vary, *recent studies show that FLU vaccination*, for instance, _*reduces*_ the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine. Got it? Flu vaccines have a 60% effectiveness.

*How well will any of the COVID-19 vaccines protect?* We don't really have a clue. We still don't know the incubation period, length of immunity after exposure, or long term effects of exposure. We have pretty good estimates, and some anecdotal evidence, but we're just making "best guesses".

*Incubation time? * We're guessing it's about 2 days to 2 weeks.
*Length of immunity?* It's been only 8 months and we've seen some people be re-infected.
*Long term effects?* Hell, we're not even sure of the short term effects. Some folks cough, some get fevers and headaches, others have their lungs crust up from the inside. Some lose their sense of smell or taste, or both.

*Long term?* Jeez - well, let's start with the impression that most people who have tested positive for COVID-19 recover completely within a few weeks. *But COVID-19 symptoms can sometimes persist for months.* The virus can damage the lungs, heart and brain, which increases the risk of long-term health problems. There are reports of continuing muscle pain, headaches, fast or pounding heartbeat, lingering loss of smell or taste, memory, concentration or sleep problems, even rashes or hair loss. Saw a news interview with a patient that had "recovered", except for some bothersome unilateral jaw pain.

But wait, there's more.

Although COVID-19 is seen as a disease that primarily affects the lungs, it can damage many other organs as well. This organ damage may increase the risk of long-term health problems. Organs that may be affected by COVID-19 include:

*Heart*. Imaging tests taken months after recovery from COVID-19 have shown lasting damage to the heart muscle, even in people who experienced only mild COVID-19 symptoms. This may increase the risk of heart failure or other heart complications in the future.
*Lungs*. The type of pneumonia often associated with COVID-19 can cause long-standing damage to the tiny air sacs (alveoli) in the lungs. The resulting scar tissue can lead to long-term breathing problems.
*Brain*. Even in young people, COVID-19 can cause strokes, seizures and Guillain-Barre syndrome - a condition that causes temporary paralysis. COVID-19 may also increase the risk of developing Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease.
*Blood clots and blood vessel problems*: COVID-19 can make blood cells more likely to clump up and form clots. While large clots can cause heart attacks and strokes, much of the heart damage caused by COVID-19 is believed to stem from very small clots that block tiny blood vessels (capillaries) in the heart muscle. Other parts of the body affected by blood clots include the *lungs, legs, liver* and *kidneys*. COVID-19 can also weaken blood vessels and cause them to leak, which contributes to potentially long-lasting problems with the liver and kidneys.
*Problems with mood and fatigue*: Surviving a serious bout of COVID can lead to psychological issues such as _*post-traumatic stress syndrome, depression*_ and *anxiety*. I'd expect to see "survivors" developing *chronic fatigue syndrome*.



But again, it's important to remember that *most people* who have COVID-19 *recover quickly*. But the potentially long-lasting problems from COVID-19 make it even more important to reduce the spread of the disease by following precautions such as wearing masks, avoiding crowds, and washing your hands.

So, let's face it, we're currently playing craps. The probability of rolling *snake eyes* is 1/36, or 2.777%.

*What are your odds of getting COVID-19? * That depends on an awful lot of things, including the precautions you take, and whether you're currently living in a "hot spot".



You're standing in line at the grocery store in Woodbury. You count about two dozen people and workers at the registers. How likely is it that *one* of them has the coronavirus?

Between 74 percent and 94 percent.

The risk of at least one person having the coronavirus at a gathering of 10 in Hudson, Wis.: Between 42 percent and 67 percent.

That same group in Foster County in central North Dakota: 89 percent to 99+ percent.

New York City: 10 percent to 19 percent.

Obviously, this is not YOUR percentage risk of catching it. That's the risk of being _exposed_ to it.

Here in California, with a population of almost 40 million, we currently have 1,341,700 confirmed cases. So, overall, I have a 3¼% chance of being infected, greater than that of rolling snake eyes. 1 in every 30 people are infected.

In terms of state rankings, we're actually doing pretty good. Last week North Dakota had a INFECTION RATE of 10%.


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> But if _you_ get vaccinated you presumably don't have to worry about the person working shoulder to shoulder with you not being vaccinated. You should be totally protected.


Given the numbers we have so far, 90-95% (not totally) protected.


----------



## Open Book

Vaccinated or not, I don't plan to stop wearing a mask. 

Zach's numbers are interesting and I believe the stats about how many people you encounter every day have the virus. Yes, within a limited area in your vicinity that contains a certain density of people there are high probabilities that at least one person near you is infected. Act accordingly.

I still persist in thinking they got infected by being more careless than I am. Maybe I just need to feel that way. If I lived in California I wouldn't think I have 3¼% chance of being infected just because = 1,341,700/40 million. I would think I have less of a chance because I wear a mask and take other precautions that I don't see the average person taking.

A Boston Globe article said that they think the reason for the rising cases in Massachusetts is not primarily schools, restaurants, and businesses, which have pretty good controls. It's people getting together in groups on their own, even small groups. 

I believe that. Three middle aged women going for a walk together in my neighborhood, unmasked, is a common sight. Or eight teenagers doing the same. I doubt by their makeup that these group members all live in the same household. Each may think they have their own small safe circle, but the members of their circle have their own circles with additional members. They are not exclusive.

The Boston Globe also said in only about half of cases can a source of infection be found by contact tracing. It's probably impossible to find a person who infected you in the grocery store, but maybe people aren't being totally frank with contract tracers either. It could mean ratting out their walking companions and admitting to bad behavior.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Given the numbers we have so far, 90-95% (not totally) protected.


That is in a 3 month trial. Some vaccines provide lifetime immunity (polio vaccine) others provide relatively short term immunity (flu vaccine). Fauci has commented that he expects the Covid-19 vaccines to provide immunity for about a year, so that 90% number will decay with time until you get a booster. Vaccines don't typically work by making a person entirely immune, they work by reducing propagation of the disease so that you have some level of immunity and you are unlikely to be exposed to the disease because everyone else has some level of immunity.


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> Vaccinated or not, I don't plan to stop wearing a mask.
> 
> Zach's numbers are interesting and I believe the stats about how many people you encounter every day have the virus. Yes, within a limited area in your vicinity that contains a certain density of people there are high probabilities that at least one person near you is infected. Act accordingly.
> 
> I still persist in thinking they got infected by being more careless than I am. Maybe I just need to feel that way. If I lived in California I wouldn't think I have 3¼% chance of being infected just because = 1,341,700/40 million. *I would think I have less of a chance because I wear a mask and take other precautions that I don't see the average person taking.*
> 
> A Boston Globe article said that they think the reason for the rising cases in Massachusetts is not primarily schools, restaurants, and businesses, which have pretty good controls. It's people getting together in groups on their own, even small groups.
> 
> I believe that. Three middle aged women going for a walk together in my neighborhood, unmasked, is a common sight. Or eight teenagers doing the same. I doubt by their makeup that these group members all live in the same household. Each may think they have their own small safe circle, but the members of their circle have their own circles with additional members. They are not exclusive.
> 
> The Boston Globe also said in only about half of cases can a source of infection be found by contact tracing. It's probably impossible to find a person who infected you in the grocery store, but maybe people aren't being totally frank with contract tracers either. It could mean ratting out their walking companions and admitting to bad behavior.


*"I would think I have less of a chance because I wear a mask and take other precautions that I don't see the average person taking."*

Exactly.

My wife and I have been very good about following guidelines. Then again, we don't get out much anyway. But we mask up, don't gather in crowds, and wash our hands. Actually, she's been double-masking lately.

So our risk of INFECTION is reduced.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> Dr. Fauci has said he's against mandatory vaccination, which would be immensely unpopular among the red hatted mouthbreathers.
> 
> But what about your employer? If you work on a production line with other workers -- if you work in an office with other workers -- if you interact with the public on a daily basis -- can your employer require you to get vaccinated?
> 
> Interesting dilemma.
> https://www.huffpost.com/entry/can-employer-require-covid-vaccine_l_5fc932c1c5b613828e3324a6


Actually, the black community polls as the most opposed to getting the vaccine. Not typically over-represented in the "red-hatted mouthbreathers" demographic.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Actually, the black community polls as the most opposed to getting the vaccine. Not typically over-represented in the "red-hatted mouthbreathers" demographic.


It's good to see Americans writing so respectfully of their fellow countrymen and women. And these would be one and the same people who'd put hand on heart and say they weren't racist!! As George Orwell said in the 1930s, 'the bourgeois Left dislikes the poor and hates the rich'. I expect those 'mouthbreathers' are one and the same execrable poor.


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## Flamme

The ''racism'' thing exists only in western hemisphere...Anyone in the know is aware of OPEN racism in China, Japan, Korea and many arabaic and islamic countries as well as india towards black people which lasts for centuries and is not likely to change any time soon or any time at all...And nobody from UN to BLM NGOs dont bat an eye...


----------



## Judith

Cannot come soon enough. Anything to get my life back!


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## Tikoo Tuba

Long term effects of the mRNA vaccine are theoretical . In 2018 only 36 humans had received it . How are they ?


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## NoCoPilot

Long term effects of the COVID-19 infection are also unknown. Some indications of lingering cardio or neural effects.


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## Flamme

Oh yeah like we didnt have enough Seizures from the hot mess going on in the world already...


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> It's good to see Americans writing so respectfully of their fellow countrymen and women. And these would be one and the same people who'd put hand on heart and say they weren't racist!! As George Orwell said in the 1930s, 'the bourgeois Left dislikes the poor and hates the rich'. I expect those 'mouthbreathers' are one and the same execrable poor.


You would be wrong. The red-hatted mouth-breathers are overwhelmingly the I've Got Mine--To Hell With You crowd. Expensive pickup trucks, flying to MAGA rallies, healthy though obese (until they contract COVID), good incomes, pensions, investments. No, the big misunderstanding is that Red Hats are fighting for the Poor--they are not, not at all, but are fighting fiercely to not expand the pie such that the "undeserving" Poor get more than what they currently do, and even that is Too Much.

No such problems or issues in Australia, though. :devil:


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

NoCoPilot said:


> Long term effects of the COVID-19 infection are also unknown. Some indications of lingering cardio or neural effects.


It has been indicated the Covid19 was genetically manipulated . This has been protested . So what .


----------



## KenOC

Strange Magic said:


> You would be wrong. The red-hatted mouth-breathers are overwhelmingly the I've Got Mine--To Hell With You crowd. Expensive pickup trucks, flying to MAGA rallies, healthy though obese (until they contract COVID), good incomes, pensions, investments. No, the big misunderstanding is that Red Hats are fighting for the Poor--they are not, not at all, but are fighting fiercely to not expand the pie such that the "undeserving" Poor get more than what they currently do, and even that is Too Much.
> 
> No such problems or issues in Australia, though. :devil:


And possibly they engage in constant tiresome hate-filled diatribes and always ascribe the worst motives to those who disagree with them while demonizing them and making them seem less than human beings. Yes, that's certainly naughty of them! :lol:


----------



## Strange Magic

KenOC said:


> And possibly they engage in constant tiresome hate-filled diatribes and always ascribe the worst motives to those who disagree with them while demonizing them and making them seem less than human beings. Yes, that's certainly naughty of them! :lol:


We agree!!!! I knew we would! You've seen the rallies too!


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## DaveM

Tikoo Tuba said:


> It has been indicated the Covid19 was genetically manipulated . This has been protested . So what .


Focus Tikoo, focus.


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## DaveM

Strange Magic said:


> ...You've seen the rallies too!


Shoulder to shoulder and bolder and bolder...


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## Strange Magic

We're bringing stouthearted men, heavily armed per their second amendment and open carry rights, to the offices of the several state officials of Michigan to get them to see reason and give the election to the rightful and clear winner......


----------



## pianozach

Tikoo Tuba said:


> Long term effects of the mRNA vaccine are theoretical . In 2018 only 36 humans had received it . How are they ?


That is not a decent sample size to determine statistically relevant results.

But to answer the question, I don't know.

But if the COVID-19 vaccine is mRNA-based, then we may find out in our lifetimes. I think that there will be long-term effects, but not necessarily from the mRNA. The disease itself keeps surprising medical professionals with unpredictable side effects, so who knows?


----------



## annaw

If anyone wants to listen to some top-notch lectures about coronavirus then MIT has put together a series of online lectures. I've listened to a few and they are brilliant:

https://biology.mit.edu/undergradua...ferings/covid-19-sars-cov-2-and-the-pandemic/

Some are quite strongly scientific and immunology-based but they explain lots of fascinating features of coronavirus. For example, SARS-CoV-2 is less variable and doesn't mutate as fast as other RNA viruses. It is able to proofread and track down mutations which would otherwise accumulate and make the virus dysfunctional. So, some positive news for vaccine development !


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> That is not a decent sample size to determine statistically relevant results.
> 
> But to answer the question, I don't know.
> 
> But if the COVID-19 vaccine is mRNA-based, then we may find out in our lifetimes. I think that there will be long-term effects, but not necessarily from the mRNA. The disease itself keeps surprising medical professionals with unpredictable side effects, so who knows?


I don't worry about long term effects of mRNA, I worry about rare effects.

In your body mRNA is generally a one-off. A mRNA is produced from one of your genes, it is used to synthesize one protein molecule and it normally gets degraded before it has a chance to synthesize any more protein. So the vaccine mRNA should degrade quickly leaving behind the protein, which is the actual vaccine.

But if you give it to a billion people, something extremely improbably might occur. A retrovirus works by transcribing backwards, incorporating the sequence of an RNA molecule into your genome. What if the vaccine is given to someone who has a nasty virus already and the virus gets hold of the vaccine mRNA. It shouldn't happen, but sometimes things that shouldn't happen do happen.


----------



## joen_cph

Ouch, I don't claim to understand the details, but you're saying that the vaccine could theoretically serve as a ramp for a more dangerous virus?


----------



## NoCoPilot

Baron Scarpia said:


> I don't worry about long term effects of mRNA, I worry about rare effects.


Why? Rare side effects are by definition "rare." COVID-19 by contrast is everywhere, and as of this morning, 1,554,160 people HAVE DIED from it. Don't throw away the very very good (94% effective) because it's not perfect.



Baron Scarpia said:


> In your body mRNA is generally a one-off. A mRNA is produced from one of your genes, it is used to synthesize one protein molecule and it normally gets degraded before it has a chance to synthesize any more protein. So the vaccine mRNA should degrade quickly leaving behind the protein, which is the actual vaccine.
> 
> But if you give it to a billion people, something extremely improbably might occur. A retrovirus works by transcribing backwards, incorporating the sequence of an RNA molecule into your genome. What if the vaccine is given to someone who has a nasty virus already and the virus gets hold of the vaccine mRNA. It shouldn't happen, but sometimes things that shouldn't happen do happen.


I'm no virologist, but I BELIEVE the vaccine consists of mRNA that is already tailored to the COVID-19 virus. It is not some open concept unformed mRNA that can take on any shape it encounters -- that wouldn't be much of "a vaccine."


----------



## annaw

Baron Scarpia said:


> I don't worry about long term effects of mRNA, I worry about rare effects.
> 
> In your body mRNA is generally a one-off. A mRNA is produced from one of your genes, it is used to synthesize one protein molecule and it normally gets degraded before it has a chance to synthesize any more protein. So the vaccine mRNA should degrade quickly leaving behind the protein, which is the actual vaccine.
> 
> But if you give it to a billion people, something extremely improbably might occur. A retrovirus works by transcribing backwards, incorporating the sequence of an RNA molecule into your genome. What if the vaccine is given to someone who has a nasty virus already and the virus gets hold of the vaccine mRNA. It shouldn't happen, but sometimes things that shouldn't happen do happen.


mRNA vaccines function just in the cytosol (outside the cell nucleus where the cellular DNA resides), which is one of the advantages of the mRNA vaccines in general. Transporting mRNA back into nucleus is difficult and even if you could do that, your DNA doesn't just randomly pick up any mRNA that is lying around. Also, mRNA is eventually degraded in the cell cytosol through normal physiological processes.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Heard at the Doctors today, they hope to commence Covid vaccinations in about 2 weeks, starting with over 80s (that includes me)and other very vulnerables, then 75-80, then 70-75 etc.
Fingers crossed!


----------



## NoCoPilot

Among all the stories of avarice and greed, there occasionally emerges a moment of pure grace.

This story made me cry out loud.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/08/opin...rant-closing-pandemic-gift-mcginty/index.html


----------



## joen_cph

First Giuliani, now Ellis. Of course it spreads within such a group less observant of precautions.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Who knows what Giuliani even has, maybe a cold that is Corona based and so triggered a positive. No matter the tests are notoriously inaccurate. I am afraid most people are way off track and running scared. Running scared makes for bad decisions. Add all the money big pharma stands to make and you nave a recipe for disaster.


----------



## Guest

annaw said:


> mRNA vaccines function just in the cytosol (outside the cell nucleus where the cellular DNA resides), which is one of the advantages of the mRNA vaccines in general. Transporting mRNA back into nucleus is difficult and even if you could do that, your DNA doesn't just randomly pick up any mRNA that is lying around. Also, mRNA is eventually degraded in the cell cytosol through normal physiological processes.


My suggestion is that if the cell is already infected with another retrovirus the reverse transcriptase of the retrovirus could mistake the vaccine mRNA for its own and incorporate it in the genome. I'm not suggesting it is likely, or even really possible.


----------



## Guest

SixFootScowl said:


> Who knows what Giuliani even has, maybe a cold that is Corona based and so triggered a positive. No matter the tests are notoriously inaccurate. I am afraid most people are way off track and running scared. Running scared makes for bad decisions. Add all the money big pharma stands to make and you nave a recipe for disaster.


He wouldn't be in the hospital if he didn't have alarming symptoms. Hospitals ICUs wouldn't be overflowing with critical patients and renting refrigerated trucks to serve as temporary morgues if Covid-19 were "just a common cold."


----------



## adriesba

SixFootScowl said:


> Who knows what Giuliani even has, maybe a cold that is Corona based and so triggered a positive. No matter the tests are notoriously inaccurate. I am afraid most people are way off track and running scared. Running scared makes for bad decisions. Add all the money big pharma stands to make and you nave a recipe for disaster.


The tests test for genetic information specifically from COVID-19, not general coronaviruses. The genetic material among coronaviruses is not exactly the same. Getting a false positive is extremely unlikely. One is much more likely to get a false negative such as from not getting adequate material on the swab or from not having enough viral material in the body for the swab to collect. So yes, tests can be inaccurate, but inaccuracies are almost always false negatives which is why we need to be cautious even if we get a negative result.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/which-test-is-best-for-covid-19-2020081020734
https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/06/how-accurate-diagnostic-tests-covid-19


----------



## joen_cph

The better, officiel tests used in my country have an accuracy percentage of 97-99 %, for virus and antibodies. And yes, some further positives slip through. A big study here showed that the virus is 5 times more deadly than flu. To this must be added side effects.


----------



## DaveM

SixFootScowl said:


> Who knows what Giuliani even has, maybe a cold that is Corona based and so triggered a positive. No matter the tests are notoriously inaccurate. I am afraid most people are way off track and running scared. Running scared makes for bad decisions. Add all the money big pharma stands to make and you nave a recipe for disaster.


People are 'way off track and running scared' regarding something that is now killing 2000-3000 per day and last week became the primary cause of death in the U.S.? Not to mention the chronic complications that, for some people, may be life-long.


----------



## annaw

Baron Scarpia said:


> My suggestion is that if the cell is already infected with another retrovirus the reverse transcriptase of the retrovirus could mistake the vaccine mRNA for its own and incorporate it in the genome. I'm not suggesting it is likely, or even really possible.


If it's not able to get into the nucleus then it's not incorporated in the genome. By the way, Moderna has also developed a HIV mRNA vaccine and HIV is the most famous example of a retrovirus. As far as I know, that vaccine has been successful so far in the trials. To be honest, I really doubt that we can come up with any kind of problem that the scientists haven't thought about already.


----------



## annaw

SixFootScowl said:


> Who knows what Giuliani even has, maybe a cold that is Corona based and so triggered a positive. No matter the tests are notoriously inaccurate. I am afraid most people are way off track and running scared. Running scared makes for bad decisions. Add all the money big pharma stands to make and you nave a recipe for disaster.


I would _really_ recommend watching the lectures I cited above. Even if they tend to be difficult, they prove well that there is more to science than big pharma and there are people who do world-class science without getting paid millions. Science is not famous for being particularly well-paid anyways, at least not considered all the work and dedication that is put into it. It's a complicated area of research. Coronavirus triggers very many different immune reactions. There are also different therapeutic and, as far as I know, antibody-based solutions considered.

Specificity and sensitivity of a diagnostic test depends on the specific test used. There're very many different tests and making a generalisation is not really accurate itself.


----------



## pianozach

SixFootScowl said:


> Who knows what Giuliani even has, maybe a cold that is Corona based and so triggered a positive. No matter the tests are notoriously inaccurate. I am afraid most people are way off track and running scared. Running scared makes for bad decisions. Add all the money big pharma stands to make and you nave a recipe for disaster.


Rudy's in the hospital. He's a "high risk" individual. Old, and obviously not in the best of health.

But as this one-man super-spreader is a friend of the Prez, he receives world-class medical treatment. But on numerous occasions recently he has met with officials for hours at a time without wearing a mask.



His miraculous recovery will reinforce the resentment of every hoohaw who won't wear a mask and throws a fit at a bar because last call comes early at 10 p.m. The problem with these quick recoveries is that they demonstrate (to people who are the most susceptible to this message) that COVID-19 isn't really a big deal.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Unless he gets really, REALLY sick. I don't wish that on anybody.... but since we're talking teachable moments here....


----------



## NoCoPilot

SixFootScowl said:


> Who knows what Giuliani even has, maybe a cold that is Corona based and so triggered a positive. No matter the tests are notoriously inaccurate. I am afraid most people are way off track and running scared. Running scared makes for bad decisions. Add all the money big pharma stands to make and you nave a recipe for disaster.


A. There's no such thing as "a cold that is Corona based." I don't know where you read that, but it's not a source you should ever trust again.

B. "Running scared makes for bad decisions," but being so petrified that you're afraid to make ANY decisions is much, much worse. It's guaranteed to produce nothing but very very bad outcomes.


----------



## KenOC

“US regulators have confirmed the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine is 95% effective, paving the way for it to be approved for emergency use… Although two doses are needed to offer full protection, the first jab prevented 89% of the most severe cases. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) found no safety concerns to stop approval of the vaccine.

“It is the first time this level of detail for the jab, which the UK has already started using for mass vaccination, has been published. The FDA will meet on Thursday to make a formal decision.”

It was stated earlier that, assuming a Thursday approval, US vaccine shipments will start the next day, Dec. 11. Formal distribution plans are said to be in place but I haven’t seen them detailed anywhere. That’s most likely on purpose.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> A. *There's no such thing as "a cold that is Corona based."* I don't know where you read that, but it's not a source you should ever trust again.
> 
> B. "Running scared makes for bad decisions," but being so petrified that you're afraid to make ANY decisions is much, much worse. It's guaranteed to produce nothing but very very bad outcomes.


Thanks for catching that. I saw it earlier and failed to address it. Ha! A "corona-based cold". Gawd, where does tripe like this come from?

*Giuliani*'s symptoms were bad enough that he was admitted to the hospital the same day it was announced he'd tested positive. While it's possible that his initial testing yielded a false positive, I'm sure that he was retested.

And for a guy running around pretending COVID-19 doesn't exist, I'd wager that he only got tested because he was having serious enough symptoms. I'll bet he was having trouble breathing - that's what gets most folks' attention.

Of course, NOW they're saying he was admitted to Georgetown University Hospital "as a precaution".

And I wasn't kidding about him being a _*"Super Spreader"*_: *Jenna Ellis*, who has worked alongside Rudy Giuliani on behalf of the Trump campaign to file lawsuits in battleground states, has tested positive for Covid-19.

Ellis caused a stir with White House officials who learned they were at a Christmas party last Friday with the Trump campaign attorney, who attended as a guest of trade adviser Peter Navarro. *She was not feeling well*, one person familiar with Ellis' diagnosis said, *and was not wearing a mask while mingling with the other guests, which included top administration officials*. A senior White House official confirmed they were told of Ellis' diagnosis.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Rudy's in the hospital. He's a "high risk" individual. Old, and obviously not in the best of health.
> 
> But as this one-man super-spreader is a friend of the Prez, he receives world-class medical treatment. But on numerous occasions recently he has met with officials for hours at a time without wearing a mask.
> 
> 
> 
> His miraculous recovery will reinforce the resentment of every hoohaw who won't wear a mask and throws a fit at a bar because last call comes early at 10 p.m. The problem with these quick recoveries is that they demonstrate (to people who are the most susceptible to this message) that COVID-19 isn't really a big deal.


What was that?? "*Old and obviously not in the best of health*". Ergo, "high risk"? That's what I've been saying for ages; take care of your health. Out goes the obesity, diabetes, high BP, cardiovascular disease. Walk, eat well, sleep well and you have an excellent chance of recovery.

Everybody talks about cases but few mention that mortality rates are actually under 2%. A 90 year old woman in the UK has been the first person given a vaccination for Covid-19; that tells me about the cohort at the front line and all about the demographic that the western world is throwing its economies aside to protect. Go into any care home and those lower percentages able to speak who don't already have dementia would likely tell you just to bugger off. Sure, there are people in their 60s and 70s and others with co-morbidities who succumb - but trashing the futures of younger generations is hysteria and over-reaction I've never seen before in my life. Well, probably on a par with 'the red menace'.


----------



## annaw

^ That mortality rate percentage seems to be brought down by the mild and asymptomatic cases in younger people. The mortality rate is undoubtedly higher among older people. There are things which are largely out of your control but which still affect your immune system. Immunological aging which results in decline of immune system functionality is for example connected with asymptomatic herpesvirus infections, which the majority of the population have. The decline of immune function due these viruses can be rather severe in older individuals. It's also among the reasons why seasonal flu is a lot more dangerous for older people. But I wholeheartedly support healthy lifestyle - it can definitely helps a lot !

"Data from China and Italy suggest a case-fatality of 2.3% in patients with COVID-19, with more than 50% of the fatalities occurring in patients 50 years of age or older [2]. In the largest reported series from Northern Italy, case-fatality in patients 64 years or older was 36% compared with 15% in younger patients [3]." - https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-09826-8

" For every 1,000 people infected with the coronavirus who are under the age of 50, almost none will die. For people in their fifties and early sixties, about five will die - more men than women. The risk then climbs steeply as the years accrue. For every 1,000 people in their mid-seventies or older who are infected, around 116 will die. These are the stark statistics obtained by some of the first detailed studies into the mortality risk for COVID-19." - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2


----------



## adriesba

Christabel said:


> What was that?? "*Old and obviously not in the best of health*". Ergo, "high risk"? That's what I've been saying for ages; take care of your health. Out goes the obesity, diabetes, high BP, cardiovascular disease. Walk, eat well, sleep well and you have an excellent chance of recovery.
> 
> Everybody talks about cases but few mention that mortality rates are actually under 2%. A 90 year old woman in the UK has been the first person given a vaccination for Covid-19; that tells me about the cohort at the front line and all about the demographic that the western world is throwing its economies aside to protect. Go into any care home and those lower percentages able to speak who don't already have dementia would likely tell you just to bugger off. Sure, there are people in their 60s and 70s and others with co-morbidities who succumb - but trashing the futures of younger generations is hysteria and over-reaction I've never seen before in my life. Well, probably on a par with 'the red menace'.


I believe what I'm saying needs to be said, and I can't be quiet anymore. So, apologies if I sound stern or like a jerk...

I don't understand how you can have read the things mentioned in this thread and still say this.

Over 1.5 million people have died from covid.

In the US, covid is the third highest cause of death this year. - Plus, these deaths are occurring with restrictions in place. Take the restrictions away, and many more will die. Mortality rates may seem low, but 2% of a lot of people is a lot of people.

Young healthy people can still have severe symptoms and even die from it.

Things like diet and exercise aren't going to help much if at all for those who are very old: a healthy old person is still an old person and doesn't have the immune system of a young person. And then there are those whose immune systems are suppressed due to medication or diseases. Besides all that, covid is here now. There's no time for unhealthy people to get in better shape.

Plus, some people can have lingering complications even after recovering.

Cases are rising in the US yet again. Hospitals don't have the capacity in their ICUs for the potential number of cases there would be from a world with no restrictions.

History speaks for itself. Spanish flu was a huge problem 100 years ago. One would think that with 100 additional years of gained knowledge and new technology that this would be a lesson learned, but it is not. Like there were then, there are anti-maskers and people unwilling to cooperate.

There are many people even on this forum that have been dealing with the disease either in themselves or with their loved ones. Misinformation and selfishness smears mud in the face of their troubles.

Even if everything around you seems relatively safe, you cannot base things on your own sphere of living. Others are much worse off. I personally know about nine people who have had it (probably more now), and one person my dad knew died from it. Even my experience isn't conclusive, but the numbers I mentioned above are.

I want to get through this without having to bury anyone!


----------



## SixFootScowl

pianozach said:


> Thanks for catching that. I saw it earlier and failed to address it. Ha! A "corona-based cold". Gawd, where does tripe like this come from?
> [





> "Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive cells in 40 to 60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating 'common cold' coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."


https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/people-build-immunity-coronavirus-common-cold/


----------



## KenOC

In my own county:

Compared with 0-64 Age Group 
65+	1.3	times as likely to be diagnosed
65+	14.2	times as likely to die once diagnosed
65+	18.0	times as likely to die overall


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> In my own county:
> 
> Compared with 0-64 Age Group
> 65+	1.3	times as likely to be diagnosed
> 65+	14.2	times as likely to die once diagnosed
> 65+	18.0	times as likely to die overall


So how confident should a 64-year-old feel? Much more than a 65-year-old?
There should be a table with the risks for each year of age instead of always lumping wide ranges of ages together.


----------



## Guest

adriesba said:


> I believe what I'm saying needs to be said, and I can't be quiet anymore. So, apologies if I sound stern or like a jerk...
> 
> I don't understand how you can have read the things mentioned in this thread and still say this.
> 
> Over 1.5 million people have died from covid.
> 
> In the US, covid is the third highest cause of death this year. - Plus, these deaths are occurring with restrictions in place. Take the restrictions away, and many more will die. Mortality rates may seem low, but 2% of a lot of people is a lot of people.
> 
> Young healthy people can still have severe symptoms and even die from it.
> 
> Things like diet and exercise aren't going to help much if at all for those who are very old: a healthy old person is still an old person and doesn't have the immune system of a young person. And then there are those whose immune systems are suppressed due to medication or diseases. Besides all that, covid is here now. There's no time for unhealthy people to get in better shape.
> 
> Plus, some people can have lingering complications even after recovering.
> 
> Cases are rising in the US yet again. Hospitals don't have the capacity in their ICUs for the potential number of cases there would be from a world with no restrictions.
> 
> History speaks for itself. Spanish flu was a huge problem 100 years ago. One would think that with 100 additional years of gained knowledge and new technology that this would be a lesson learned, but it is not. Like there were then, there are anti-maskers and people unwilling to cooperate.
> 
> There are many people even on this forum that have been dealing with the disease either in themselves or with their loved ones. Misinformation and selfishness smears mud in the face of their troubles.
> 
> Even if everything around you seems relatively safe, you cannot base things on your own sphere of living. Others are much worse off. I personally know about nine people who have had it (probably more now), and one person my dad knew died from it. Even my experience isn't conclusive, but the numbers I mentioned above are.
> 
> I want to get through this without having to bury anyone!


There is so much wrong with your comments it's hard to know where to start. Firstly, some facts. The incidence of diabetes and other lifestyle related diseases is a big factor in survival chances of Covid-19. Secondly, America doesn't have the highest rates of mortality. Thirdly, Europe has a strong culture of smoking and this is impacting survivability for Covid-19. You cannot stop people from dying by locking up the rest of society. Sure, protect the vulnerable - no worries - but if you think you can hold a hand up to a virulent disease and imagine you can control same by locking up younger generations then you are sadly mistaken.

Let's now talk about 'selfishness'. It's 'selfish' to deny a young generation a chance for prosperity and success. To strip the wages of orchestral musicians in the NY Phil etc. etc. I want to see how 'unselfish' people will become when the day comes to put those hands deep into the pocket and pay for this. Anyway, the natives are becoming restless in Europe; I'm pretty sure they won't remain under house arrest for much longer. And the pandemic will leave on its own terms, when it's good and ready and not a day before.

I don't want to be rude about this, but clearly somebody has told you they can make you feel 'safe' in your life. Do not listen to such fantasy. Life is risky, at times downright dangerous and utterly ruthless. Control what you can instead of wringing your hands. It's appalling that the Chinese let this thing run out of control in the first place; it is they you need to criticize and not me. I am concerned about the fate of younger generations and their rights to live.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> So how confident should a 64-year-old feel? Much more than a 65-year-old?
> There should be a table with the risks for each year of age instead of always lumping wide ranges of ages together.


Life will offer you no guarantees. I promise you'll be disappointed if you think so.


----------



## Open Book

Christabel said:


> Life will offer you no guarantees. I promise you'll be disappointed if you think so.


Healthy living doesn't guarantee that you'll be safe from the virus, either.


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> ...Life is risky, at times downright dangerous and utterly ruthless. Control what you can instead of wringing your hands. It's appalling that the Chinese let this thing run out of control in the first place; it is they you need to criticize and not me. I am concerned about the fate of younger generations and their rights to live.


At this point, what does criticizing the Chinese have to do with anything and what does it have to do with you? Controlling what we can is exactly what people who are following the experts are trying to do. I wish you'd get off this mantra. You're not an expert.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> It's appalling that the Chinese let this thing run out of control in the first place


*To date:*
China population = 1,439,323,776
China COVID infections = 88,661 
China COVID infections per capita = 60 per million
China COVID deaths = 4,634
China COVID deaths per capita = 3 per million

United States population = 331,854.504
United States COVID infections = 15,591,709
United States COVID infections per capita = 46,984
United Stated COVID deaths = 293,398 per million
United States COVID deaths per capita = 884 per million

You're absolutely right, it's appalling that ANYBODY would "let this thing run out of control" *but it wasn't the Chinese*.

A couple other facts for you:
1. New York, the first big outbreak, came from Europe not China (https://nyulangone.org/news/new-yor...k-spread-more-european-sources-first-reported)
2. The conspiracy theory that the virus was "cooked up" in the Wuhan Institute of Virology has been thoroughly discredited (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/inside-wuhan-lab-center-coronavirus-storm-n1236254)


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christobel said:


> Everybody talks about cases but few mention that mortality rates are actually under 2%.


Rate ratios compared to 18-29 year olds
*Hospitalization* *Death*
0-4 years 4x lower 9x lower
5-17 years 9x lower 16x lower
18-29 years Comparison Group Comparison Group
30-39 years 2x higher 4x higher
40-49 years 3x higher 10x higher
50-64 years 4x higher 30x higher
65-74 years 5x higher 90x higher
75-84 years 8x higher 220x higher
85+ years 13x higher 630x higher
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...s-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

Yes, people who are younger and healthier have better outcomes. However, there's not much a person can do on short notice to lower their BPL or BSL, weight and diabetes take years to reverse, and if you know a way to get younger please share.


----------



## adriesba

Christabel said:


> There is so much wrong with your comments it's hard to know where to start.


Then what did I say wrong? The facts I mentioned in my post were all mentioned before in this thread, and I believe everything was given a source. I've seen this information myself anyway. You haven't disproved anything.



> Firstly, some facts. The incidence of diabetes and other lifestyle related diseases is a big factor in survival chances of Covid-19.


Yes, but those aren't the only things that affect survivability. Age for instance is a huge factor.



> Secondly, America doesn't have the highest rates of mortality.


What does this mean? If anything, this shows how bad covid is. Like I said, covid is the third highest cause of death in the US currently. Things are pretty bad here, and if that's not even the worst of it then my goodness this disease is bad!



> Thirdly, Europe has a strong culture of smoking and this is impacting survivability for Covid-19.


Again, that is one factor. There are others.



> You cannot stop people from dying by locking up the rest of society. Sure, protect the vulnerable - no worries - but if you think you can hold a hand up to a virulent disease and imagine you can control same by locking up younger generations then you are sadly mistaken.
> 
> Let's now talk about 'selfishness'. It's 'selfish' to deny a young generation a chance for prosperity and success. To strip the wages of orchestral musicians in the NY Phil etc. etc. I want to see how 'unselfish' people will become when the day comes to put those hands deep into the pocket and pay for this. Anyway, the natives are becoming restless in Europe; I'm pretty sure they won't remain under house arrest for much longer. And the pandemic will leave on its own terms, when it's good and ready and not a day before.
> 
> I don't want to be rude about this, but clearly somebody has told you they can make you feel 'safe' in your life. Do not listen to such fantasy. Life is risky, at times downright dangerous and utterly ruthless. Control what you can instead of wringing your hands. It's appalling that the Chinese let this thing run out of control in the first place; it is they you need to criticize and not me. I am concerned about the fate of younger generations and their rights to live.


There are more people in this world than just young people. Promoting their interests at the expense of the elderly and immunocompromised is the very definition of selfish. We are all in this together. And before I go further, please don't think I'm trying to personally attack anyone by using words like "selfish". My wish is not to attack you or anyone personally. I've just noticed that a lot is being said abroad about personal rights and such that is making fighting covid so hard. Rights are important, but so is cooperation, and I worry that the concept of rights is drowning out the dire need for cooperation. But to put it in terms of rights, we don't have a right to put others in undue danger.

The thing is that lots of places wouldn't need to be shutdown. But when people become too lax, measures have to be taken. A couple moths ago where I live, many places had opened back up - restaurants, hair salons, non-essential stores, schools and colleges, recreational facilities, etc. But people didn't follow rules, and now some things closed again.

Yes, I want to stop seeing local businesses close. There is not a good answer for this. But I want the people who run those businesses to be safe as well as their families and the people who shop there. I want to go on trips again, but I want to do so with my family. I want to have parties again, but I want all my friends and relatives to be alive to be there. I want to go to concerts, ballets, and operas again, but I want to do so with my grandmother, and I want to keep all of the other older people there safe as well. Sure, we can't absolutely guarantee everyone's safety, but that doesn't mean we should throw caution to the wind and put people in harm's way when there are things we can do to help.

I know how you feel. At the beginning, I was devastated at the thought of the new life I would have to take up and hoped that there was some clever answer out there that was more appealing. But deep down I knew there probably wasn't, and so I decided from day one that I would listen and follow the rules even though I wanted it all to be found unnecessary. But there are a lot of people out there who are smarter than I am. And eventually as cases increased and I was informed of people I knew who had gotten covid and how close to home this is, I realized that I had made the right choice. I could see for myself that what health experts said was right. No need to question, the data is there, the cases and deaths have spoken. I by no means regret the caution I have had, even though I wouldn't be surprised if me following the rules has annoyed people.

As a young person myself, I am indeed worried about the future. There are so many things that worry me. But at this very moment, I am much more worried about all the people there are in my area that would not fare well at all if they got covid, and I don't want to spread it.


----------



## Strange Magic

> Christabel: "I don't want to be rude about this, but clearly somebody has told you they can make you feel 'safe' in your life. Do not listen to such fantasy. Life is risky, at times downright dangerous and utterly ruthless. Control what you can instead of wringing your hands. It's appalling that the Chinese let this thing run out of control in the first place; it is they you need to criticize and not me. I am concerned about the fate of younger generations and their rights to live."


Firstly, the Chinese as we know quickly got a grip on the COVID outbreak and contained it very successfully. The figures already quoted show that, and nobody reputable has come up with alternate figures. The boilerplate about "not feeling safe", "Life is risky, dangerous, ruthless",etc. is revealing in itself--these are all lessons that Christabel should be passing on to the youth for whom she is the self-appointed spokesperson--"no guarantees": very Hobbesian. COVID, per Christabel, is a curse descended from heaven upon the sick, the sickly, the stupid, the out-of-shape, and should be left to run its course--thin the herd--eliminate the halt and the lame while it incidently destroys our healthcare delivery systems. Sounds like the initial response to HIV/AIDS. We'll see how long the assumed stoicism lasts if the beast comes closer to home.

The way to deal with COVID was and is through urging one's population that it is sane, scientific, and patriotic to mask, social distance, wash thoroughly, lock down if necessary with rigor and with contact tracing, and to develop both vaccines and therapeutics for the pandemic and to promote their universal use.


----------



## Open Book

Strange Magic said:


> Interesting bit of nonsense here from Christabel. Firstly, the Chinese as we know quickly got a grip on the COVID outbreak and contained it very successfully.


You have to admit, though, that China has a huge advantage over free countries when it comes to getting its citizens to cooperate. They can shoot their citizens for disobeying lockdowns and curfews or not wearing masks. We can only appeal to our citizens' good will.

Also China has an extra weapon in their arsenal when it comes to contact tracing. They are using people's locations on their phones to identify anyone that an infected person has been physically close to and quickly locate and quarantine more people who have been exposed. Efficient, but an invasion of privacy. This is from a reliable source.


----------



## joen_cph

It turns out that the vaccines and precaution policies are all a great hoax, apparently.

Since it's all about the '_vibrational frequencies_":


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336341447721836549


----------



## Open Book

joen_cph said:


> It turns out that the vaccines and precaution policies are all a great hoax, apparently.
> 
> Since it's all about the '_vibrational frequencies_":
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336341447721836549


That could be a scene from one of the "Borat" movies.


----------



## Roger Knox

joen_cph said:


> It turns out that the vaccines and precaution policies are all a great hoax, apparently.
> 
> Since it's all about the '_vibrational frequencies_":
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336341447721836549


I'm afraid that we have people like that in Canada too. Whether it's a troubled background or some other cause, they seem to have faulty filters and strange ideas that leave me terrified.


----------



## Flamme

This is so messed up, the more you learn the less you know...


----------



## joen_cph

Flamme said:


> This is so messed up, the more you learn the less you know...


What do you mean? Some things are simple, such as the precaution measures ...


----------



## pianozach

Strange Magic said:


> Firstly, the Chinese as we know quickly got a grip on the COVID outbreak and contained it very successfully. The figures already quoted show that, and nobody reputable has come up with alternate figures. The boilerplate about "not feeling safe", "Life is risky, dangerous, ruthless",etc. is revealing in itself--these are all lessons that Christabel should be passing on to the youth for whom she is the self-appointed spokesperson--"no guarantees": very Hobbesian. COVID, per Christabel, is a curse descended from heaven upon the sick, the sickly, the stupid, the out-of-shape, and should be left to run its course--thin the herd--eliminate the halt and the lame while it incidently destroys our healthcare delivery systems. Sounds like the initial response to HIV/AIDS. We'll see how long the assumed stoicism lasts if the beast comes closer to home.
> 
> The way to deal with COVID was and is through urging one's population that it is sane, scientific, and patriotic to mask, social distance, wash thoroughly, lock down if necessary with rigor and with contact tracing, and to develop both vaccines and therapeutics for the pandemic and to promote their universal use.


"*pianozach* liked this post"

It *should* read *pianozach* _*loved*_ this post.


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## NoCoPilot

Me too. My mama always said, "Stupid is as stupid does."


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## Guest

pianozach said:


> "*pianozach* liked this post"
> 
> It *should* read *pianozach* _*loved*_ this post.


Don't worry about the conflicting advice you got from Dr. Fauci; wear a mask/don't wear a mask. At least he didn't tell you that 200 million had died so I guess that's something.

You obviously need to hold onto your moral panic for reasons best known only to you. If you really cared about people dying there's something you could do which would be effective *right now*; do something about the road toll, drug and gun deaths and MILLIONS of abortions. That would really reveal some horrific statistics. That's something you COULD do. If you wanted. And you'd be saving people who had their whole lives ahead of them. It has to be 'equal opportunity' life-saving, otherwise it's straight discrimination.

In the meantime, you can take your cue from other countries and their Covid-19 "successes".

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/10/mark-drakeford-the-great-bungler/


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## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Don't worry about the conflicting advice you got from Dr. Fauci; wear a mask/don't wear a mask. At least he didn't tell you that 200 million had died so I guess that's something.


Are you desperate enough to still be talking about history from February and March? Do you really want to open the can of worms that includes other mistakes made at the time (eg. Hydroxychloroquine)? When you have to resort to pure hindsight 20/20 judgment, not to mention some obscure mention, without perspective, of 200 million deaths as if Fauci has some responsibility for them, then you blow all credibility.



> You obviously need to hold onto your moral panic for reasons best known only to you. If you really cared about people dying there's something you could do which would be effective right now; do something about the road toll, drug and gun deaths and MILLIONS of abortions. That would really reveal some horrific statistics. That's something you COULD do. If you wanted. And you'd be saving people who had their whole lives ahead of them.


When someone with your 'herd immunity' mentality wants to distract from the real immediate issue before us, it's convenient to drag out all the other ills of society, except that, once again, it indicates someone who doesn't want to accept the pandemic-related directions that can work to save lives now, but rather distract to issues that have no immediate solutions.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> Are you desperate enough to still be talking about history from February and March? Do you really want to open the can of worms that includes other mistakes made at the time (eg. Hydroxychloroquine)? When you have to resort to pure hindsight 20/20 judgment, not to mention some obscure mention, without perspective, of 200 million deaths as if Fauci has some responsibility for them, then you blow all credibility.
> 
> When someone with your 'herd immunity' mentality wants to distract from the real immediate issue before us, it's convenient to drag out all the other ills of society, except that, once again, it indicates someone who doesn't want to accept the pandemic-related directions that can work to save lives now, but rather distract to issues that have no long-solutions.


The 'other ills' meaning entirely preventable deaths. OK, got it now. A classic case of "look over THERE".

The western world has practically no experience of a pandemic since the Spanish flu 100 years ago. Consequently, they are making huge mistakes and there are fails. What can people do to head this off themselves? Take the best care they can of their own lives without sitting around like the old 'cargo cult' waiting for the government to provide. A terrifying idea, I know.


----------



## annaw

Christabel said:


> The 'other ills' meaning entirely preventable deaths. OK, got it now. A classic case of "look over THERE".
> 
> The western world has practically no experience of a pandemic since the Spanish flu 100 years ago. Consequently, they are making huge mistakes and there are fails. What can people do to head this off themselves? Take the best care they can of their own lives without sitting around like the old 'cargo cult' waiting for the government to provide.


A healthy lifestyle does not guarantee that one won't be severely affected by COVID-19. We aren't fully aware how our immune systems will react. Our immune system has been shaped by different factors, which we can hardly control. As I said, I fully support healthy lifestyle but I also support masks, quarantines and self-isolation when they are needed.


----------



## Guest

annaw said:


> A healthy lifestyle does not guarantee that one won't be severely affected by COVID-19. We aren't fully aware how our immune systems will react. Our immune system has been shaped by different factors, which we can hardly control. As I said, I fully support healthy lifestyle but I also support masks, quarantines and self-isolation when they are needed.


I just cut and pasted this from another music site and I have to agree with it:

_Do a study on the individual risk of fatality due to COVID-19 relative the individual risk of fatality due to traffic, car driving, smoking, obesity, alcohol - including interactions among factors._

All those things you mention in your last sentence are the BEST anybody can do and which I've always advocated. Quarantine/self-isolation is central to the protection of the most vulnerable demographics; but it cannot be a reason to lock up the entire population. And I think we're seeing a huge resistance to that anyway throughout the world.

When your warmer weather sets into the USA you'll see a natural decline in numbers, I'm thinking. Covid-19 loves the cold and this is why there isn't so much of it in Florida. As I said in a previous post, the western world has precious little experience in this particular situation. Control the deaths you can from all other causes - that will mitigate, to an extent, the numbers which concern you from Covid-19.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> If you really cared about people dying there's something you could do which would be effective *right now*; do something about the road toll, drug and gun deaths and MILLIONS of abortions.


Good grief, another of your *false equivalences*!! Drug and gun deaths are not contagious, whereas a virus is. Ergo, the number of people infected with Covid-19 can expand exponentially and overwhelm health services.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel, is this where you're getting all your misinformation, from New Zealand?
https://factcheck.afp.com/new-zeala...d-19-vaccines-attributed-anti-vaxxer-robert-f


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> The western world has practically no experience of a pandemic since the Spanish flu 100 years ago. Consequently, they are making huge mistakes and there are fails.


Nobody alive remembers the Spanish Flu, but some people can read.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997248/
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200420/four-lessons-from-the-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic#1
https://www.history.com/news/pandemics-lessons


----------



## adriesba

If you want to compare deaths from covid to deaths from other causes, by all means do so. It will just show you how bad covid is.

*US deaths from covid *(more all the time, but now)*: ~ 288,762*

------------------------------------------------------------

2017 data for the US

Top three causes of death -

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents: 169,936

Other causes -

Alzheimmer's: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Suicide: 47,173

-------------------------------------------------------------

US deaths from traffic accidents in 2019: ~ 36,120

And as I mentioned before (more relevant to today), covid is the third leading cause of death in the US at this moment and has been since May: 
https://www.scientificamerican.com/...the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s1/

For a really strong perspective, please read the _Scientific American_ article all the way through. The information it gives is quite poignant.

Does this put things into perspective? There is absolutely no way to downplay covid. Just look at these numbers!

References:

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812946
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> I just cut and pasted this from another music site and I have to agree with it:
> 
> _Do a study on the individual risk of fatality due to COVID-19 relative the individual risk of fatality due to traffic, car driving, smoking, obesity, alcohol - including interactions among factors._
> 
> All those things you mention in your last sentence are the BEST anybody can do and which I've always advocated. Quarantine/self-isolation is central to the protection of the most vulnerable demographics; but it cannot be a reason to lock up the entire population. And I think we're seeing a huge resistance to that anyway throughout the world.
> 
> When your warmer weather sets into the USA you'll see a natural decline in numbers, I'm thinking. Covid-19 loves the cold and this is why there isn't so much of it in Florida. As I said in a previous post, the western world has precious little experience in this particular situation. Control the deaths you can from all other causes - that will mitigate, to an extent, the numbers which concern you from Covid-19.




OMG, you have GOT to be kidding.

Right. We were told back in April that COVID-19 would "go away" as soon as the summer got here because it will be warmer.

Oh, and Florida. Florida. 1,094,697 Cases and 19,591 Deaths

For a population of 21.48 million, that's NOT "not much of it in Florida". Florida, overall, is right smack dab in the middle of the listing by states for cases/100,000 since January 21st. Actually, Vermont, one of our coldest states, has the distinction of having the lowest case rate per 100,000

1. North Dakota 11,408 cases per 100,000
26. Florida 2,002 cases per 100,000
50. Vermont 844 cases per 100,000

Pretty similar if you want to look at the death rate.

1. New Jersey 196 deaths per 100,000
19. Florida 91 deaths per 100,000
50. Vermont 15 deaths per 100,000

I prefer rates rather than a metric "count" of cases or deaths. The populations of the states vary quite a bit.

But if you like raw numbers, Florida is the pits.

Florida is #3 in cases since January
Florida is #3 in deaths since January
Florida is #6 in cases in the last 7 days
Florida is #6 in deaths in the last 7 days.

In essence, you trot out *"Covid-19 loves the cold and this is why there isn't so much of it in Florida"*, which SOUNDS reasonable, but simply isn't true.

You claim *"When your warmer weather sets into the USA you'll see a natural decline in numbers, I'm thinking"*, and, obviously, your thinking was proved wrong 3 months ago.


----------



## Open Book

Well, actually there _was _a decline in numbers in some states in the late spring/summer, Zach. Like mine. It was about *300 *cases per day then for quite some time, long plateau, vs. over *5000* cases per day lately. But it wasn't from the warm weather. It was because things were locked down and people were strongly advised to stay at home.

It has reversed itself probably because not only are things not locked down, people are not socially distancing or wearing masks properly as they should. They've gotten impatient and are rebelling. And they don't fear the virus enough because the fatality rate isn't high enough. And only affects those pesky really old people, mostly. And because they see Trump and his associates get away with it - did anyone who was at that reception for Coney Barrett die? And they see sports figures and entertainers on TV barely wearing masks or distancing.

What they need to see is what's going on in the emergency rooms.

It's hard to say how much the weather is a factor when other factors are not controlled.


----------



## Flamme

joen_cph said:


> What do you mean? Some things are simple, such as the precaution measures ...


Ok that but I meant the symptoms and parts of body it infects...First it was lungs, then kidneys and today I read it causes impotence...


----------



## Open Book

Impotence or infertility or both? That might be the one thing that scares people enough to practice distancing, if it proves true.


----------



## Flamme

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/rus...oronavirus-vaccine-russians-recoil-dont-drink


> "This really bothers me," said Elena Kriven, a Moscow resident. "I'm unlikely to not be able to drink for 80 days and I reckon the stress on the body of giving up alcohol, especially during what is a festive period, would be worse than the (side effects of the) vaccine and its alleged benefits," she said.


----------



## joen_cph

Flamme said:


> Ok that but I meant the symptoms and parts of body it infects...First it was lungs, then kidneys and today I read it causes impotence...


True, lots of worrying side effects reported. Loss of any sense of tasting, confusion, tiredness, headaches, and so on. But it seems to be often based on rather few examples, without the bigger statistical picture being ready yet.


----------



## KenOC

On Thursday the FDA's staff recommended that the vaccine be approved, but the FDA has not yet issued the approval. From the BBC:



> On Friday, President Donald Trump sent out an angry tweet calling the FDA a "big, old, slow turtle", adding: "Get the dam vaccines out NOW, Dr Hahn. Stop playing games and start saving lives."
> 
> The Washington Post said that White House chief of staff Mark Meadows had ordered FDA Commissioner Hahn to approve the vaccine on Friday or submit his resignation, citing three sources.
> 
> But Mr Hahn told US media he had only been "encouraged to continue working expeditiously" on the vaccine's approval, and that the media representation of the chief of staff's phone call was "untrue".


----------



## KenOC

“The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Friday formally granted emergency approval for Pfizer and BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine candidate, officially paving the way for widespread distribution of the long-awaited vaccine that is recommended to go to health care workers and residents and staff of long-term care facilities first…

“Though the vote eventually passed 17-4, (one committee member abstained), several committee members took issue with the aspect of approving the vaccine for use in 16- and 17-year-olds due to limited evidence. Others argued that the 16- and 17-year-olds wouldn't be among the first to receive the vaccine, allowing for time to research the effects it may have on this age group.”


----------



## NoCoPilot

Yay. FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine tonight. Let the rollout begin.

Of course it'll take 6-9 months to get a substantial percentage of the population vaccinated, to the point where new infections decline substantially. We'll likely see 400,000 dead by inauguration day, and half a million or more by summer.

But we're on the right track now. Reasons for optimism during the worst year in my lifetime.


----------



## pianozach

COVID-19 has now killed more Americans than died in four years of fighting in WW2.


----------



## Chilham

SixFootScowl said:


> ... Who knows what Giuliani even has, maybe a cold that is Corona based and so triggered a positive...


:lol: ............


----------



## Flamme

NoCoPilot said:


> Yay. FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine tonight. Let the rollout begin.
> 
> Of course it'll take 6-9 months to get a substantial percentage of the population vaccinated, to the point where new infections decline substantially. We'll likely see 400,000 dead by inauguration day, and half a million or more by summer.
> 
> But we're on the right track now. Reasons for optimism during the worst year in my lifetime.


EU has chosen security as opposed to speed. https://www.euronews.com/2020/12/11...uality-of-covid-19-vaccine-is-my-top-priority


----------



## NoCoPilot

EU doesn't have as much of a raging case as the good ol' USofA.


----------



## Flamme

He is so feisty!


----------



## adriesba

Flamme said:


> He is so feisty!


Feisty? ... Anyway, I don't get. We've been wearing masks already, and weren't we expecting to continue wearing them for longer anyway? Unless maybe he means it to be a message of encouragement, a reminder not to give up.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Have I already had the virus infection ? I don't know .
What If I am unknowingly infected at the time of vaccination ?
Do I need a doctor's advice ? I do not know one personally and 
don't even know my blood type .

My sister made me a mask . Only on one day have I worn it . I 
wanted to attend my nephew's criminal trial . Not only was I 
commanded to wear a mask in the courtroom - had to take off 
my hat !


----------



## NoCoPilot

Here's an interesting article. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic never really went away. It comes back every year as the "flu season."
https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

COVID-19 could be the same way -- yearly coronavirus vaccinations required as the virus mutates to stay ahead of the medicine.


----------



## Roger Knox

The Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine has been approved by the CDC and is being shipped today in the USA. First shots to be administered tomorrow, with priority given to health care workers and long-term care residents (at least in New Jersey; source: CNN). This is an _astounding accomplishment_. The vaccine development was announced on November 10, only 33 days ago. Information is being provided to the public to address concerns about the rapidity of the development and approval. Also, more detailed information about side effects including allergic reactions is available.

I hope it comes to Canada soon, particularly because my mother is a retirement home resident. I don't know if she is a candidate but I'm sure some of the residents would be.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Yes , anxiety can be pandamnic .


----------



## Guest

Roger Knox said:


> The Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine has been approved by the CDC and is being shipped today in the USA. First shots to be administered tomorrow, with priority given to health care workers and long-term care residents (at least in New Jersey; source: CNN). This is an _astounding accomplishment_. The vaccine development was announced on November 10, only 33 days ago. Information is being provided to the public to address concerns about the rapidity of the development and approval. Also, more detailed information about side effects including allergic reactions is available.
> 
> I hope it comes to Canada soon, particularly because my mother is a retirement home resident. I don't know if she is a candidate but I'm sure some of the residents would be.


It was announced on November 10. I've read that the pair of Turkish Scientists working in Germany designed the vaccine the day after the WHO released published the SARS-CoV-2 sequence, which was January 9, 2020, I believe. Still amazing.


----------



## Roger Knox

Tikoo Tuba said:


> Yes , anxiety can be pandamnic .


Please give me a break.


----------



## Roger Knox

In Canada shipments of Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine began arriving yesterday, and more will come today. Use of the vaccine was approved by Health Canada last Wednesday for those over 16 years old. First in line are health care workers in long-term care facilities.

As for anxiety, l've returned to mindfulness. Sticking to reliable sources helps.


----------



## DaveM

Roger Knox said:


> Please give me a break.


I think T. Tuba's post was a response to one after yours that was removed due to a little moderating


----------



## Pyotr

adriesba said:


> Then what did I say wrong? The facts I mentioned in my post were all mentioned before in this thread, and I believe everything was given a source. I've seen this information myself anyway. You haven't disproved anything.
> .......
> 
> As a young person myself, I am indeed worried about the future. There are so many things that worry me. But at this very moment, I am much more worried about all the people there are in my area that would not fare well at all if they got covid, and I don't want to spread it.


That's a wonderful sentiment, and I do appreciate the way the locals have been social distancing/mask wearing, which makes it safer for me (being in the vulnerable age group, although I'm in great health) to go to the local grocery store. But I always thought that it was the parents who sacrificed for the children, not the other way around. I have lived a full life and there's no bucket list hanging over my head.

I realize that my wife and I have the advantage over many people our age; we're retired (except for a few things I do on my computer) and we don't have to go anywhere. Also, we don't live with young people. If we did, I would expect them to quarantine with us(or we would temporally move somewhere else).


----------



## Roger Knox

DaveM said:


> I think T. Tuba's post was a response to one after yours that was removed due to a little moderating


Thank you. I'll take back post #583.


----------



## KenOC

First jabs have taken place today in the US -- health care people. Also today, the US holds the _real _vote for president.


----------



## Guest

Roger Knox said:


> Please give me a break.


I agree with him; hysteria and panic have become infectious and are both quite frightening. Millions of people lived through WW2 without such hysteria. But these were people of another time, who dealt with life's depredations on a fairly regular basis - like a catastrophic economic collapse, Spanish Flu, Prohibition and incredible violence, WW2, the Cold War. There was precious little expectation that the government was going to save their hides. (This latter is an image reminiscent to me of the sick and lame making their way to the shrine of St. Bernadette of Lourdes, hoping for a 'cure'.) Imagine what it was like, if you will, for those soldiers disembarking on Sword, Omaha and Juno beaches in June, 1944. That must have been like being in hell.

Remember the words of Roosevelt about fear? "We have nothing to fear but fear itself". Great words!!

AND Shakespeare:

"Screw your courage to the sticking place."


----------



## KenOC

Story today: "Dr. Anthony Fauci on Monday predicted that the United States could achieve herd immunity against Covid-19 by 'the end of the second quarter 2021' after vaccines are more widely deployed."


----------



## NoCoPilot

Pyotr said:


> I realize that my wife and I have the advantage over many people our age; we're retired (except for a few things I do on my computer) and we don't have to go anywhere. Also, we don't live with young people. If we did, I would expect them to quarantine with us(or we would temporally move somewhere else).


You live in "The Villages"? Isn't that the retirement community in Florida? Yikes, I'd be afraid to leave my house at all if I lived there -- either for infecting one of my elderly neighbors or getting infected myself. It'd be like living in a giant convalescent center.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> I agree with him; hysteria and panic have become infectious and are both quite frightening. Millions of people lived through WW2 without such hysteria. But these were people of another time, who dealt with life's depredations on a fairly regular basis - like a catastrophic economic collapse, Spanish Flu, Prohibition and incredible violence, WW2, the Cold War. There was precious little expectation that the government was going to save their hides. (This latter is an image reminiscent to me of the sick and lame making their way to the shrine of St. Bernadette of Lourdes, hoping for a 'cure'.) Imagine what it was like, if you will, for those soldiers disembarking on Sword, Omaha and Juno beaches in June, 1944. That must have been like being in hell.
> 
> Remember the words of Roosevelt about fear? "We have nothing to fear but fear itself". Great words!!
> 
> AND Shakespeare:
> 
> "Screw your courage to the sticking place."


Hysteria and panic are only appropriate if masking and social distancing are not universally observed.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

When I go to town I observe the people for anxiety - some days are better than others . When people with masks speak to me I try to make my voice beautiful for them . _bel canto_


----------



## perempe

Heard Prof. Lajos Papp's lecture yesterday. He advised not to take pills for reflux as they change PH value in the stomach.


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> Hysteria and panic are only appropriate if masking and social distancing are not universally observed.


Working a treat in Europe, I hear.


----------



## EdwardBast

KenOC said:


> Story today: "Dr. Anthony Fauci on Monday predicted that the United States *could achieve herd immunity against Covid-19 by 'the end of the second quarter 2021*' after vaccines are more widely deployed."


Yes, could _if_ 85% of Americans are vaccinated. Alas, the percentage who say they _will_ get vaccinated falls well short of the mark.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Yes, unfortunately, distrust of the vaccine seems to be rampant, with between 23% and 40% (I've heard different polls) of people claiming they will not get it, even when it's available.

Which is unfortunate. But it really only affects the unvaccinated. The old and the healthcare workers and firemen and policemen and ambulance drivers and all the people who believe in science will get vaccinated, and be protected.

The remaining population? 

Darwinism at work.

I hope they have good insurance because the public shouldn't have to pay for their hospitalization.


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> Yes, unfortunately, distrust of the vaccine seems to be rampant, with between 23% and 40% (I've heard different polls) of people claiming they will not get it, even when it's available.
> 
> Which is unfortunate. But it really only affects the unvaccinated. The old and the healthcare workers and firemen and policemen and ambulance drivers and all the people who believe in science will get vaccinated, and be protected.
> 
> The remaining population?
> 
> Darwinism at work.
> 
> I hope they have good insurance because the public shouldn't have to pay for their hospitalization.


Try to stop the moral panic: 95% of people who get Covid-19 survive and yet the vaccine is being rolled out to the entire population. Yep, that makes sense!!

I'm not going to opt for the vaccine myself because if enough people get it the spread will be reduced and I don't think Covid-19 is going away anyway. It will be with us for a very long time, despite what the command and control demographic thinks. Meantime, beef up that immune system with regular exercise, highly nutritious food and plenty of restful sleep. That is the very best thing you can do. Take it to the bank.


----------



## Open Book

Christabel said:


> Try to stop the moral panic: 95% of people who get Covid-19 survive


If 5% die that's 1 out of 20 who die. You like those odds? Also don't forget that when a statistic like that is mentioned, it's per _case_. There's no limit as to how many times you can contract the disease. The more times you get sick with it, the higher the odds that it will finally get you for good.



Christabel said:


> and yet the vaccine is being rolled out to the entire population. Yep, that makes sense!!


Uh, yeah. That's how vaccines work. Entire populations are vaccinated, or nearly so. Or else they don't work.



Christabel said:


> I'm not going to opt for the vaccine myself because if enough people get it the spread will be reduced


Totally selfish to reap a benefit without putting in any of the work. If everyone thinks like you, not enough people will get vaccinated and you will not be protected.



Christabel said:


> I don't think Covid-19 is going away anyway.


The flu hasn't gone away but we can still get some protection from it.



Christabel said:


> It will be with us for a very long time, despite what the command and control demographic thinks. Meantime, beef up that immune system with regular exercise, highly nutritious food and plenty of restful sleep. That is the very best thing you can do. Take it to the bank.


Because self-help gurus know more than doctors.


----------



## EdwardBast

Christabel said:


> Try to stop the moral panic: 95% of people who get Covid-19 survive and yet the vaccine is being rolled out to the entire population. Yep, that makes sense!!


Just to second Open Book's point: That's how vaccine's work. Please educate yourself. Children are dying of measles today because a small percentage of idiots decide their kids won't be vaccinated. Polio should have been eradicated from the planet. Ask yourself why it hasn't.


----------



## Phil loves classical

Haven't really followed this thread, but from what I see it's pretty depressing. I'll get vaccinated, as I see it as my moral and social responsibility. Bye!


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> I'm not going to opt for the vaccine myself because if enough people get it the spread will be reduced and I don't think Covid-19 is going away anyway.


Better hang out ONLY with vaccinated people then. You'll be vulnerable to getting it for the rest of your life, if you EVER come in contact with a carrier.


----------



## adriesba

*sigh*.... nevermind, I'm too tired for this.


----------



## KenOC

No joke indeed! "A White House official lost his right foot and lower leg to a battle with COVID-19 that began over three months ago, according to a friend."


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Millions of people lived through WW2 without such hysteria.


Hmm, perhaps a little presumptuous since my guess is that millions of people in countries overrun by the Nazis at the time may have experienced something along the line of hysteria. I can only imagine the feeling of hearing boots coming up the stairs and the knocks on the door.


----------



## KenOC

Moving right along:

"Moderna's vaccine is safe and 94% effective, regulators say, clearing the way for US emergency authorisation. The analysis by the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) means it could become the second coronavirus vaccine to be allowed in the US."

The vaccine panel meets in two days.


----------



## Ingélou

Is there a real conversation going on here? 

I'm glad there's a vaccine and will certainly have one when it's offered.


----------



## Guest

Well, it appears not only is the vaccine NOT a silver bullet but you need to have it twice and then there's no guarantee you don't get the disease. This is being discussed right now on Australian TV after our chief medical officer made a press statement about it today. Apparently you can still get Covid-19 with the Astra Zeneca vaccine but the symptoms aren't as bad. All in all, this is what happens when a vaccine is fast-tracked in an emergency; the efficacy issues and side-effects aren't adequately researched.

My original suggestion stands; take the best care of your health that you can. Avoid smoking, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, high blood pressure and other compromising lifestyle choices. Of course there are people OF ALL AGES with serious co-morbidities and they need to be isolated and protected. Many people are also dying WITH Covid-19 rather than FROM Covid-19. I've discussed with my friend who is a physician and a relative who is a physician. Our TV discussion program also played comments from an American doctor about this same issue, but I couldn't identify the person as he's unknown to me. I'm unsure either about whether you'll be getting the same vaccine Stateside that we are in Australia.

But you will probably be disappointed if you are pinning all your hopes on a vaccine, unfortunately.
Keep yourselves very well informed and not fearful; that's the best you can do. In fact, that same regime should apply to all areas of personal health for the duration of your lifetime.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel, you seem easily swayed by isolated remarks by and conversations with a few individuals. Everyone is for good nutrition, healthy exercise, etc.--who wouldn't be?--but the consensus among immunologists, epidemiologists, public health specialists surely must cumulatively count for something in your calculations.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Maybe it’s as simple as she’s afraid of needles?

She has a point that WHEN she gets it, if she’s young and healthy, she has a very good chance of surviving it. What she maybe DOESN’T realize is that it isn’t just about her. WHEN she gets the disease (not IF but WHEN, if she isn’t immunized and doesn’t wear a mask), she will be infectious and will transmit the disease to everyone she comes in contact with, assuming they’re not vaccinated and masked. She will become a carrier up to two weeks before she even knows she’s infected. 

I hope everyone she comes in contact with is as young and healthy as her


----------



## SixFootScowl

I miss the old gripe thread--before vaccines entered the discussion.


----------



## Flamme

What old gripe, new one is sour gripe???


----------



## Open Book

SixFootScowl said:


> I miss the old gripe thread--before vaccines entered the discussion.


Are you referring to this thread as a gripe thread, as if the coronavirus is nothing worse than gripe-worthy?

There is another gripe thread for minor annoyances.


----------



## haydnguy

Our front line workers are scheduled to be given the vaccine on Tuesday. The front line workers and nursing home residents will get theirs first.

I'm going to get one because my wife is a nurse and treats covid patients every day. I'm 65 years old so I would be considered high risk. My wife hasn't gotten it and no one in our house has, thank goodness.


----------



## joen_cph

haydnguy said:


> Our front line workers are scheduled to be given the vaccine on Tuesday. The front line workers and nursing home residents will get theirs first.
> 
> I'm going to get one because my wife is a nurse and treats covid patients every day. I'm 65 years old so I would be considered high risk. My wife hasn't gotten it and no one in our house has, thank goodness.


Congratulations, good to hear such stories!


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Well, it appears not only is the vaccine NOT a silver bullet but you need to have it twice and then there's no guarantee you don't get the disease. This is being discussed right now on Australian TV after our chief medical officer made a press statement about it today. Apparently you can still get Covid-19 with the Astra Zeneca vaccine but the symptoms aren't as bad. All in all, this is what happens when a vaccine is fast-tracked in an emergency; the efficacy issues and side-effects aren't adequately researched.


There's no evidence for that last statement. No expert on the subject has suggested that with more time and testing of these vaccines which have better than 80-95% prevention of the disease and, so far, almost 100% prevention of the severest symptoms, there would be better results and less side-efffects.

Practically no vaccine is 100% effective against getting a disease and 100% without side-effects. People will say they won't get the flu vaccine because it's 'only' 60-70% effective, when actually what is even more important is that it is over 80% effective in reducing severe disease.

Based on prior comments of yours, you mention your discussions with some random physicians and then come to conclusions thereof. Might be a good idea to rethink your sources.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Open Book said:


> Are you referring to this thread as a gripe thread, as if the coronavirus is nothing worse than gripe-worthy?
> 
> There is another gripe thread for minor annoyances.


My mistake, I got my threads mixed up. There was some covid/vaccine discussion happening in the gripe thread and I thought that is where I was at.


----------



## Open Book

SixFootScowl said:


> My mistake, I got my threads mixed up. There was some covid/vaccine discussion happening in the gripe thread and I thought that is where I was at.


I think this happens to a lot of people, haha.


----------



## KenOC




----------



## Roger Knox

SixFootScowl said:


> My mistake, I got my threads mixed up. There was some covid/vaccine discussion happening in the gripe thread and I thought that is where I was at.


I get mixed up sometimes too. Is it TC or my brain that is the jungle? I stopped posting on Ideas for Stupid Threads out of fear of making a huge blunder. Like, say, writing something for Stupid Threads, posting it by mistake on the Politics and Religion Sub-Forum, and getting flamed.


----------



## Roger Knox

KenOC said:


> No joke indeed! "A White House official lost his right foot and lower leg to a battle with COVID-19 that began over three months ago, according to a friend."


Covid-19 related disabilities are something we need to become aware of.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Roger Knox said:


> I get mixed up sometimes too. Is it TC or my brain that is the jungle? I stopped posting on Ideas for Stupid Threads out of fear of making a huge blunder. Like, say, writing something for Stupid Threads, posting it by mistake on the Politics and Religion Sub-Forum, and getting flamed.


Having too many tabs open with TC threads is one way to get mixed up.

Reminds me of the time I blew off my boss' email to another worker but accidentally sent it back to the boss. Whoops.


----------



## Flamme

My mind has TOO many tabs open rn...


----------



## Guest

Seems the US is using a Pfizer vaccine: one of the dreaded 'big pharma', aye!!

*US health worker suffers severe reaction after Pfizer vaccination*

A health worker in Alaska has reportedly suffered a serious allergic reaction after getting Pfizer-BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine and is now hospitalised but stable.

The New York Times reported the person received their shot on Tuesday, and Pfizer confirmed it was working with local authorities to investigate the incident.

Two health workers in Britain had similar allergic reactions, causing the government there to tell people to avoid getting the shot if they had a history of severe allergies.

The US regulator issued an emergency approval with the warning that people who had known allergies to ingredients inside the vaccine should avoid it.

"We don't yet have all the details of the report from Alaska about a potential serious allergic reactions but are actively working with local health authorities to assess," a Pfizer spokesperson said.

"We will closely monitor all reports suggestive of serious allergic reactions following vaccination and update labeling language if needed." Volunteers for Pfizer's clinical trial of 44,000 people were excluded if they had a history of allergic reactions to vaccines or components of the Covid-19 vaccine.

Overall, the trial found no serious safety issues, but regulators and the company are continuing to monitor for adverse events after vaccination.

The US is vaccinating some three million people this week with the vaccine, and hopes to reach a total of 20 million people this month if another vaccine, developed by Moderna, is approved.


----------



## Flamme

> Seems the US is using a Pfizer vaccine: one of the dreaded 'big pharma', aye!!


Most of EU as well.


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> Try to stop the moral panic: 95% of people who get Covid-19 survive and yet the vaccine is being rolled out to the entire population. Yep, that makes sense!!
> 
> I'm not going to opt for the vaccine myself because if enough people get it the spread will be reduced and I don't think Covid-19 is going away anyway. It will be with us for a very long time, despite what the command and control demographic thinks. Meantime, beef up that immune system with regular exercise, highly nutritious food and plenty of restful sleep. That is the very best thing you can do. Take it to the bank.


Yep. NOT getting the vaccine is like playing a game of Russian Roulette. Your chances are good.

But just in case you get the chamber with the bullet in it, what songs would you like played at your memorial service?


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> Well, it appears not only is the vaccine NOT a silver bullet but you need to have it twice and then there's no guarantee you don't get the disease. This is being discussed right now on Australian TV after our chief medical officer made a press statement about it today. Apparently you can still get Covid-19 with the Astra Zeneca vaccine but the symptoms aren't as bad. All in all, this is what happens when a vaccine is fast-tracked in an emergency; the efficacy issues and side-effects aren't adequately researched.
> 
> My original suggestion stands; take the best care of your health that you can. Avoid smoking, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, high blood pressure and other compromising lifestyle choices. Of course there are people OF ALL AGES with serious co-morbidities and they need to be isolated and protected. Many people are also dying WITH Covid-19 rather than FROM Covid-19. I've discussed with my friend who is a physician and a relative who is a physician. Our TV discussion program also played comments from an American doctor about this same issue, but I couldn't identify the person as he's unknown to me. I'm unsure either about whether you'll be getting the same vaccine Stateside that we are in Australia.
> 
> But you will probably be disappointed if you are pinning all your hopes on a vaccine, unfortunately.
> Keep yourselves very well informed and not fearful; that's the best you can do. In fact, that same regime should apply to all areas of personal health for the duration of your lifetime.


When the vaccine was first announced, they did say it would be given in two doses, yet you frame it as though it's some sort of recently discovered damning thing. It's pretty amazing how you reframe things to fit your pre-conceived narrative.

And no one claimed the vaccine would be "a silver bullet" either. You claiming that others called it a silver bullet doesn't fly. No one claimed that.++

*"But you will probably be disappointed if you are pinning all your hopes on a vaccine, unfortunately."* No one is pinning all their hopes on a vaccine. No one said "we're pinning all our hopes on a vaccine".

But a vaccine sure helped with polio. Look it up. It will very likely help with COVID.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> When the vaccine was first announced, they did say it would be given in two doses, yet you frame it as though it's some sort of recently discovered damning thing. It's pretty amazing how you reframe things to fit your pre-conceived narrative.
> 
> And no one claimed the vaccine would be "a silver bullet" either. You claiming that others called it a silver bullet doesn't fly. No one claimed that.++
> 
> *"But you will probably be disappointed if you are pinning all your hopes on a vaccine, unfortunately."* No one is pinning all their hopes on a vaccine. No one said "we're pinning all our hopes on a vaccine".
> 
> But a vaccine sure helped with polio. Look it up. It will very likely help with COVID.


Hold that thought. And what's the title of this thread? Looking back over it you can see fear-driven comments and the contributors' hopes all on display. In fact, that's the language governments and their supporters are using, "*they're SAVING us*". Highly emotive language has been used to advantage by your political leadership..."*the long DARK winter ahead of us*". Scare people enough and you can control them, but my objection is that the people who are not scared and want their businesses to resume but who are prevented from doing so. There are no clean skins in this. A bit more of the Churchillian 'we will never surrender' would be useful.

The Sabin vaccine was extremely effective and *developed over the longer term by Dr. Salk*.
If it's effective for Covid-19 that has yet to be seen. Perhaps development in that direction would have been more effective than starting from the beginning with a vaccine with a dubious efficacy. Trouble is, there's been so much conflicting information and you certainly cannot trust the mainstream media. Those days are gone.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Highly emotive language has been used to advantage by your political leadership..."*the long DARK winter ahead of us*". Scare people enough and you can control them, but my objection is that the people who are not scared and want their businesses to resume but who are prevented from doing so. There are no clean skins in this. A bit more of the Churchillian 'we will never surrender' would be useful.
> 
> Trouble is, there's been so much conflicting information and you certainly cannot trust the mainstream media. Those days are gone.


There is no "conflicting information." The people who know what they're talking about -- doctors, nurses, virologists, epidemiologists, college educated individuals -- are all unified. Only anti-science anti-vaxxers are putting out false misinformation. The MSM is not on the side of misinformation here.

As to "never surrender"? The virus doesn't care about your politics, or how brave you are. If you expose yourself to it, you'll get it. It's that simple.

The "long dark winter" refers to the fact that it'll take 6 months to vaccinate enough people to slow the spread, and in the meantime we already have 75 million cases in the world. There is no safe haven anymore; there are no safe countries, no safe states and no safe cities where you can go out in public without taking precautions. Those days are behind us.

The only "control" the government wants is for people to start acting responsibly. The best way -- the ONLY way -- for "businesses to resume" is to get this pandemic under control, which requires that everyone get on the same page and stop spreading dangerous misinformation -- and viruses.

Protect yourself and protect your loved ones.



Christabel said:


> The Sabin vaccine was extremely effective and developed over the longer term by Dr. Salk. If it's effective for Covid-19 that has yet to be seen. Perhaps development in that direction would have been more effective than starting from the beginning with a vaccine with a dubious efficacy.


1. The polio vaccine is of no use against COVID.
2. The Sabin polio vaccine was administered on a sugarcube. Salk polio vaccine is a shot. The Sabin was easier to give to kids.
3. The Moderna, AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines all use similar mRNA technology, which is not new technology but had to be customized for the particular COVID-19 virus.
4. Preliminary tests, with THOUSANDS of volunteers over 6 months, does not show "dubious efficacy." Quite the opposite.


----------



## SixFootScowl

The dangers of fast-tracking a vaccination (15 minutes). Watch the head of the CDC squirm at 5:30 when questioned about it. Lies and deception.


----------



## Bulldog

SixFootScowl said:


> The dangers of fast-tracking a vaccination (15 minutes). Watch the head of the CDC squirm at 5:30 when questioned about it. Lies and deception.


That's so lame, going back 45 years.


----------



## NoCoPilot

The 1976 swine flu killed 1 person and hospitalized 13. It cannot be compared in seriousness to COVID (1.6 million deaths, 20 million hospitalizations, 75 million cases). There is a sense of urgency that makes speed of the essence.

The swine flu came back in 2009 and killed 284,000 among 60 million cases. 60 Minutes probably has a newer story on that -- did you look?


----------



## Strange Magic

Imagine! Can you imagine?! Someone presented an allergic reaction to the vaccine! Stop the presses! Pull the vaccine!

Seriously, we all understand (don't we?) that out of any large population of recipients or contactees of anything, some will present with an allergic reaction.. Every pharma ad says "don't take this product if you are allergic to it or any of its ingredients". If you have never taken it, how are you supposed to know if you will be allergic to it. But the benefits far, far outweigh the risks, as the data will tell.


----------



## DaveM

pianozach said:


> Yep. NOT getting the vaccine is like playing a game of Russian Roulette. Your chances are good.
> 
> But just in case you get the chamber with the bullet in it, what songs would you like played at your memorial service?


Here's a good one:


----------



## DaveM

SixFootScowl said:


> The dangers of fast-tracking a vaccination (15 minutes). Watch the head of the CDC squirm at 5:30 when questioned about it. Lies and deception.


That's like taking seriously a 1976 video on the risks of open-heart surgery.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Yep. NOT getting the vaccine is like playing a game of Russian Roulette. Your chances are good.
> 
> But just in case you get the chamber with the bullet in it, *what songs would you like played at your memorial service?*


Our armchair doctor and amateur psychologist from down under is quite keen on *Brahms* so how about these for ideas:
_
Du sprichst, dass ich mich täuschte_ ("You Say, That I Deceived Myself"), from 9 Songs, Op. 32;
_
Scheiden und meiden_ ("Separations and Avoidances"), from 5 Poems, Op. 19;
_
In der Ferne_ ("At the Distance"), from 5 Poems, Op. 19.


----------



## mikeh375

Christabel invoking Churchill simply reminds me that as Brits, we came together to defeat a common enemy and worked together for the common good. We need a sense of civic duty at the very least.


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> Hold that thought. And what's the title of this thread? Looking back over it you can see fear-driven comments and the contributors' hopes all on display. In fact, that's the language governments and their supporters are using, "*they're SAVING us*". Highly emotive language has been used to advantage by your political leadership..."*the long DARK winter ahead of us*". Scare people enough and you can control them, but my objection is that the people who are not scared and want their businesses to resume but who are prevented from doing so. There are no clean skins in this. A bit more of the Churchillian 'we will never surrender' would be useful.
> 
> Your 'pre-conceived narrative' comment is merely a projection of your own. The tone of your comments is decidedly defensive.
> 
> The Sabin vaccine was extremely effective and *developed over the longer term by Dr. Salk*.
> If it's effective for Covid-19 that has yet to be seen. Perhaps development in that direction would have been more effective than starting from the beginning with a vaccine with a dubious efficacy. Trouble is, there's been so much conflicting information and you certainly cannot trust the mainstream media. Those days are gone.





NoCoPilot said:


> There is no "conflicting information." The people who know what they're talking about -- doctors, nurses, virologists, epidemiologists, college educated individuals -- are all unified. Only anti-science anti-vaxxers are putting out false misinformation. The MSM is not on the side of misinformation here.
> 
> As to "never surrender"? The virus doesn't care about your politics, or how brave you are. If you expose yourself to it, you'll get it. It's that simple.
> 
> The "long dark winter" refers to the fact that it'll take 6 months to vaccinate enough people to slow the spread, and in the meantime we already have 75 million cases in the world. There is no safe haven anymore; there are no safe countries, no safe states and no safe cities where you can go out in public without taking precautions. Those days are behind us.
> 
> The only "control" the government wants is for people to start acting responsibly. The best way -- the ONLY way -- for "businesses to resume" is to get this pandemic under control, which requires that everyone get on the same page and stop spreading dangerous misinformation -- and viruses.
> 
> Protect yourself and protect your loved ones.
> 
> 1. The polio vaccine is of no use against COVID.
> 2. The Sabin polio vaccine was administered on a sugarcube. Salk polio vaccine is a shot. The Sabin was easier to give to kids.
> 3. The Moderna, AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines all use similar mRNA technology, which is not new technology but had to be customized for the particular COVID-19 virus.
> 4. Preliminary tests, with THOUSANDS of volunteers over 6 months, does not show "dubious efficacy." Quite the opposite.


Exactly.

Phrasing it as "conflicting information" is misleading. The "conflicting" information is in the same league as "alternative facts".


----------



## NoCoPilot

*"One thing this vaccine will not solve or cure is selfishness"* - TN governor Bill Lee

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/17/us/tn-bill-lee-comments-vaccines-covid-trnd/index.html



> Lee also added the vaccine is not a cure for foolish decisions on how we gather, or one's refusal to wear a mask and it won't cure the idea that someone else's decision won't impact another person's life.


----------



## Open Book

You all are going too far about "No conflicting information". This sounds like the climate change mantra "The science is settled".

There is always new and conflicting information. Science is never settled. Science does make mistakes although science should be able to soon enough right its mistakes. We should not outright reject the most recent overall scientific consensus, but we should always use our common sense in questioning what doesn't sound right.

The doctors and nurses are all unified? Give me a break. According to the Boston Globe, a liberal newspaper, in a poll that was taken, a significant minority of doctors and nurses don't even want to take the vaccine. I don't know if these medical people are all in Red states. Or if they will outright refuse to take the vaccine or just don't like the idea.

We need the vaccine but it will not be a walk in the park. It's right to worry about allergies and bad reactions. They are inevitable with some people, and can be serious, even deadly. My family has had experience with bad reactions to medical treatments.


----------



## Strange Magic

Regarding climate change, the science is settled. The new data constantly coming in only reinforces the real consensus among informed scientists that AGW is real, is happening, and continues to intensify. There will always be a small group of scientists, rarely experts in the physics and chemistry of oceans and atmospheres, who murmur in opposition.

Open Book: be an open book and provide either a link to the Boston Globe poll or provide the data in the poll. I like to examine such links and sources to see for myself exactly what the story is. I am certain that, like in any human endeavor, there will be a minority who choose not to do anything. Good mainstream reporting and journalism usually reveals a story in all its fullness.


----------



## Open Book

I do believe the climate change data. Even if I personally don't have expertise in climate science, my common sense tells me there are huge numbers of people on the planet, more than there ever were in history. They are doing a lot of things that could affect the climate, at an unprecedented rate. I have my anecdotal observations as to how my local climate has changed over the years of my rather long life. I'm not expecting a complete turnaround on climate change.

But it's not a good mindset to say that science is settled.

Scientists are also subject to political and social pressures. I can think of a hot-button issue where I think they have caved to pressure: Transgenders being allowed to compete in women's sports. I am completely skeptical that taking hormones equalizes everything between the genders. If that were true we'd be seeing female-to-male people at the top of the men's athletic competitions as often as we see male-to-female people beating all the women. As far as I know, we don't. (I'm not going to argue this with anybody here).


----------



## Strange Magic

The Boston Globe link, please. 

On a scale of one to ten, climate change is an eleven in importance. Transgenders in sports is maybe a one and a half.


----------



## Open Book

Strange Magic said:


> The Boston Globe link, please.


That's a reasonable request and I'll have to retract this because I can't find it. However, I'm not good at finding things online. I did read a rather high figure of personal skepticism for doctors and nurses that shocked me and the Globe is mostly what I read. I honestly did not believe it and had to look twice.



Strange Magic said:


> On a scale of one to ten, climate change is an eleven in importance. Transgenders in sports is maybe a one and a half.


It doesn't matter, it's the principle of the thing. Once we start accepting sloppy or incomplete or biased science, it's a slippery slope. No well-intentioned social cause is worth bad science.


----------



## joen_cph

But importance also often reflects the amount of invested scientific research and verification.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Open Book said:


> That's a reasonable request and I'll have to retract this because I can't find it. However, I'm not good at finding things online.


https://www.foxnews.com/us/houston-doctor-nurses-covid-19-vaccine-political-reasons
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0201210-ljjww7onungrfmmtptfelcfijq-story.html
https://www.freep.com/story/news/he...-healthcare-workers-covid-vaccine/6535215002/

There are sources out there with this narrative. Whether they're reliable sources is up to you. Doctors and nurses are just like regular people, and opinions differ. However, from what I've read and seen, doctor and nurses that work in COVID wards are the strongest advocates for masking, social distancing and vaccine.


----------



## KenOC

Revisiting an old controversy, from a BBC article:



> Sweden's king has said his country "failed" to save lives with its relatively relaxed approach to the coronavirus pandemic. King Carl XVI Gustaf made the remarks as part of an annual TV review of the year with the royal family.
> 
> Sweden, which has never imposed a full lockdown, has seen nearly 350,000 cases and more than 7,800 deaths - a lot more than its Scandinavian neighbours.
> 
> Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said he agreed with the king's remarks. "Of course the fact that so many have died can't be considered as anything other than a failure," Mr Lofven told reporters.


----------



## Strange Magic

Open Book said:


> That's a reasonable request and I'll have to retract this because I can't find it. However, I'm not good at finding things online. I did read a rather high figure of personal skepticism for doctors and nurses that shocked me and the Globe is mostly what I read. I honestly did not believe it and had to look twice.
> 
> It doesn't matter, it's the principle of the thing. Once we start accepting sloppy or incomplete or biased science, it's a slippery slope. No well-intentioned social cause is worth bad science.


Let's not accept "feelings" about things of fact, along with not accepting sloppy science or incomplete or biased science. I find it difficult to understand how one can find it difficult to find things online--there is usually a tsunami of things online on any subject whatsoever; the issue is what sources are reputable, with long track records of journalistic or scientific integrity. The Boston Globe is such a source, as part of the hated and feared and mocked "Enemy of the People", the Mainstream Press, so you're off to a good start.


----------



## KenOC

Another Thursday, another vaccine. Last time it was Pfizer's vaccine, which FDA's advisory panel recommended on a Thursday and the FDA formally approved the next day, Friday. Shipments started the same weekend. This new vaccine seems to be following the same timing.

"…The news comes as an independent advisory panel to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is set to vote on Moderna's coronavirus vaccine candidate Thursday. Upon approval, Americans could see an initial 6 million doses distributed next week. Approval would mark the second jab authorized for emergency use in the U.S., following one developed by Pfizer."

Added, an update: "A U.S. Food and Drug Administration advisory panel voted Thursday to endorse Moderna's coronavirus vaccine for emergency use, clearing a major hurdle toward final regulatory approval of a second treatment to combat the deadly pandemic."


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> It doesn't matter, it's the principle of the thing. Once we start accepting sloppy or incomplete or biased science, it's a slippery slope. No well-intentioned social cause is worth bad science.


But people need to 'rely' on sloppy or incomplete science when it suits their ideological agenda. Should we 'believe the science' on what constitutes a man and what a woman when there are gender studies which tell us - with a straight face - that gender is a social construct? This comes from the Left - the same cohort that ridicules those skeptical about 'their' science being 'settled'.

You either believe IN science or you don't. There's no being half-pregnant.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Having a second approved vaccine, the Moderna, would DOUBLE the number of doses available and roughly HALVE the time it'll take to vaccinate the country. This is good news.

Especially considering the Moderna is a lot easier to store, and can be rolled out to rural areas.

The AstraZeneca vaccine may add a third leg to this stool.

It's all good news.


----------



## pianozach

Jeez.

There are people that think the earth is flat.

That doesn't mean that there is "conflicting information" about it. It means that there is a minority of people that have "alternate facts" ("alternate facts" = not necessarily facts).


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Revisiting an old controversy, from a BBC article:


That was a very large experiment. Thanks.


----------



## Luchesi

Open Book said:


> I do believe the climate change data. Even if I personally don't have expertise in climate science, my common sense tells me there are huge numbers of people on the planet, more than there ever were in history. They are doing a lot of things that could affect the climate, at an unprecedented rate. I have my anecdotal observations as to how my local climate has changed over the years of my rather long life. I'm not expecting a complete turnaround on climate change.
> 
> But it's not a good mindset to say that science is settled.
> 
> Scientists are also subject to political and social pressures. I can think of a hot-button issue where I think they have caved to pressure: Transgenders being allowed to compete in women's sports. I am completely skeptical that taking hormones equalizes everything between the genders. If that were true we'd be seeing female-to-male people at the top of the men's athletic competitions as often as we see male-to-female people beating all the women. As far as I know, we don't. (I'm not going to argue this with anybody here).


What climate change data?


----------



## Roger Knox

pianozach said:


> That doesn't mean that there is "conflicting information" about it. It means that there is a minority of people that have "alternate facts" ("alternate facts" = not necessarily facts).


What follows is hardly an original thought. Once again there have to be the "two sides," as in a TV debate. "On my right we have ____ who says the earth is round. On my left we have ____ who says the earth is flat," etc., etc. The other thing is that the people promoting the "flat earth" side often aren't trying to prove their point. They're trying to sow doubt and confusion. Maybe the idea that the earth is oval comes up, and someone says "there just might be something in that," or "there's truth on both sides." All nauseating, the reason why I listen to music rather than watch TV.


----------



## Open Book

Strange Magic said:


> Let's not accept "feelings" about things of fact, along with not accepting sloppy science or incomplete or biased science.


It's exactly _feelings_ that are behind transgenders ending up in women's sports. Originators of that bright idea _feel _sorry for transgenders, want them to _feel_ entirely like real women, to _feel _included and not ostracized. I doubt any exhaustive studies were ever done as to how appropriate and fair to real women this is. The powers that be don't really want to find out. They have their agenda.



Strange Magic said:


> I find it difficult to understand how one can find it difficult to find things online--there is usually a tsunami of things online on any subject whatsoever; the issue is what sources are reputable, with long track records of journalistic or scientific integrity. The Boston Globe is such a source, as part of the hated and feared and mocked "Enemy of the People", the Mainstream Press, so you're off to a good start.


Of course you can find all sorts of things online. I'm talking about finding a _particular _thing online, like the article I read. It's not always easy. Search engines aren't as good as they were when they first come out. They return far too much now and often not the best match first. They are driven by money now. They try to sell you stuff. Or they bump to the top whoever has paid Google for a position near the top of the list.

The article I'm talking about wasn't against vaccination, not at all. The point it was making is that it is going to be hard to get public compliance if even some doctors and nurses are leery of it. Maybe it was an old article that came out when it seemed like vaccine development was being pushed along too fast and had less trust.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Roger Knox said:


> What follows is hardly an original thought. Once again there have to be the "two sides," as in a TV debate. "On my right we have ____ who says the earth is round. On my left we have ____ who says the earth is flat," etc., etc. The other thing is that the people promoting the "flat earth" side often aren't trying to prove their point. They're trying to sow doubt and confusion. Maybe the idea that the earth is oval comes up, and someone says "there just might be something in that," or "there's truth on both sides." All nauseating, the reason why I listen to music rather than watch TV.


The Earth is an oblate spheroid, due to its rotation.


----------



## Open Book

Christabel said:


> But people need to 'rely' on sloppy or incomplete science when it suits their ideological agenda. Should we 'believe the science' on what constitutes a man and what a woman when there are gender studies which tell us - with a straight face - that gender is a social construct? This comes from the Left - the same cohort that ridicules those skeptical about 'their' science being 'settled'.
> 
> You either believe IN science or you don't. There's no being half-pregnant.


I agree that science is often tailored to ideology when it should be the other way around.


----------



## Roger Knox

NoCoPilot said:


> The Earth is an oblate spheroid, due to its rotation.


Yes, that'll confuse 'em! Me too.


----------



## Guest

mikeh375 said:


> Christabel invoking Churchill simply reminds me that as Brits, we came together to defeat a common enemy and worked together for the common good. We need a sense of civic duty at the very least.


And hope, *not fear and despair* (as in my earlier clip from "*The Blob*". Quick every: RUN.) That film is such a perfect metaphor for modern behaviour.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> I agree that science is often tailored to ideology when it should be the other way around. This isn't exclusive to one side of the political spectrum, both liberals and conservatives have been guilty of this.


This week my son's company got a letter from mining giant BHP (my clever son is in the resources sector). It was from a female in senior management in BHP and *under her signature is written "SHE" or 'HER*". I was talking about this with my daughter-in-law last night and she said, "yes, it's pathetic, but this has been around for a while". What has this to do with science, I hear you ask? Apparently a boy can be a girl and vice versa; so science has been kicked to the kerb.

I spoke to two grandsons in Perth (11 and 8) an hour ago by phone about their school reports and asked them what's the topic most discussed at school: 'climate change' was the answer. I told them both that Australia's educational results have slipped below Kazakhstan and that they need to be able to think for themselves and to do as much WIDE reading as they can; that their school reports are constructed using gobbledygook from educational boffins and that they didn't tell me much about their school performance (I used to have to compile these reports myself when teaching in high school). Many parents will find them impenetrable educational jargon.

We discussed the topic of climate change and I told the boys that one of the idols of the climate change ideology in Australia is a man named Tim Flannery (we call him "Flim Flannery"); he predicted, over a decade ago, that the rain wouldn't fall again, the rivers would run dry and the dams would be empty. I told the boys, "as of today Sydney catchment is 98% full and we've even got flooding on the north coast". Asked by the spouse if that fact had been discussed at school - as an antidote to the bushfire horror narrative of 2020 - both boys said that it had not. I asked them to think about why this might be and I also told them that the same 'scientist' who predicted no more rain had been rewarded as an "Australian of the Year" in the past. For his work!! (We note that he's been back-pedalling more recently on what he said, denying this, qualifying that!!) My 11 year old grandson speculated that there was no mention of the flooding "because that's not as dangerous as bushfires?" But people are drowning; there is massive coastal erosion and whole towns are under water (this has happened very many times in our country). But it's just not graphic enough to terrify the people. Somebody said on the news last night, "water is better than fire"!! (800,000 head of cattle were lost in 2011 in a Queensland flood, but that is tolerable if you're not footing the actual bill.)

No ideology in science!! Pull the other one.:lol:


----------



## Strange Magic

I see that my advice, bordering on the imperious, to take the issues that arouse the ire of the latest iteration of zealots--burning issues such as transgenders and their threat to society, or "scientists" (no credentials, real or fake, divulged in the complaint) making predictions that have not come true (yet)--down into the Political or Science Groups to discuss, is being ignored. It must be my age (read: long experience) here that causes me to observe that we have seen this all before: people bringing their itches here to be scratched, rather than where the TC Management has ordained wisely that they belong:

"*Forum: Community Forum*

_This is the place for those fun, and not so serious threads, birthday greetings, & general chit-chat. Above all, be respectful to your fellow forum members as they have a right to their own opinions too!

Any/All discussions about Politics or Religion are restricted to the Social Groups

Members can create their own Social Group. If you need assistance, please contact a staff member via Private Message._"

Or those areas of science that impinge on public policy. Can't get much clearer than that.


----------



## mmsbls

Please refrain from personal comments and return to the thread focus of the Covid vaccine.


----------



## Roger Knox

NoCoPilot said:


> The AstraZeneca vaccine may add a third leg to this stool.QUOTE]
> 
> What's the AstraZeneca vaccine? Gotta keep up!


----------



## NoCoPilot

Roger Knox said:


> What's the AstraZeneca vaccine? Gotta keep up!


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32623-4/fulltext
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55302595
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222hlr.html


----------



## Dorsetmike

Had my first jab this afternoon, second will be Jan 8th. Very well organised almost a production line, 4 consulting rooms used with a clerical type taking details and 2 nursing staff in each folowed by a distanced waiting area for a 10 minute "in case of after effects", I'd guess they were doing over 70 an hour
The council and the plods had agreed not to enforce parking restrictions outside the clinic, not knowing this I'd parked way down he hill Grrrrrr.


----------



## elgar's ghost

^
^

Was there any complimentary tea and biscuits?


----------



## pianozach

As for the *vaccine* itself:

The *CDC* dropped a few vaccine "fun facts" on December 13:

1. The _*safety*_ of COVID-19 vaccines is a _*top priority*_
2. COVID-19 vaccination will help protect you from getting COVID-19. _*Two doses*_ are needed
3. Right now, CDC recommends COVID-19 vaccine be offered to *healthcare personnel* and *residents of long-term care facilities*. [However, the states reserve the right to prioritize however they damn well feel like]
4. There is currently a *limited supply* of COVID-19 vaccine in the United States, but supply will increase in the weeks and months to come.
5. After COVID-19 vaccination, you may have some _*side effects*_. This is a normal sign that your body is building protection.
6. *Cost* is not an obstacle to getting vaccinated against COVID-19.
7. The first COVID-19 vaccine is being used under an *Emergency Use Authorization* (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (_*FDA*_). Many other vaccines are still being developed and tested.
8. COVID-19 *vaccines* are *one* of many important tools to help us stop this pandemic. ["Other" important tools include *"Cover your mouth and nose with a mask when around others, stay at least 6 feet away from others, avoid crowds, and wash your hands often."*]


----------



## mikeh375

Dorsetmike said:


> Had my first jab this afternoon, second will be Jan 8th. Very well organised almost a production line, 4 consulting rooms used with a clerical type taking details and 2 nursing staff in each folowed by a distanced waiting area for a 10 minute "in case of after effects", I'd guess they were doing over 70 an hour
> The council and the plods had agreed not to enforce parking restrictions outside the clinic, not knowing this I'd parked way down he hill Grrrrrr.


...glad to hear it Mike, I need a good reliable source of jokes.....


----------



## KenOC

According to CNN:



> More than 1.51 million new coronavirus cases were reported in the US this past week -- the most ever for one week, according to JHU. That means new infections were reported in roughly 1 in 216 people in the US this week alone.
> 
> The number of Covid-19 patients in US hospitals was 114,237 on Thursday -- the most recorded on a given day -- according to the COVID Tracking Project.
> 
> The nation averaged 2,633 Covid-19 deaths daily across the last week -- the highest average yet.


A second vaccine, from Moderna, is likely to be formally approved by the FDA very shortly and to begin distribution early next week. Meanwhile, my county is officially out of ICU beds.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Strange Magic said:


> "*Forum: Community Forum*
> 
> _This is the place for those fun, and not so serious threads, birthday greetings, & general chit-chat. Above all, be respectful to your fellow forum members as they have a right to their own opinions too!
> 
> Any/All discussions about Politics or Religion are restricted to the Social Groups
> 
> _


_

That rules out discussion of Covid and vaccines because neither is fun to discuss and both are highly political._


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> According to CNN:
> 
> A second vaccine, from Moderna, is likely to be formally approved by the FDA very shortly and to begin distribution early next week. Meanwhile, my county is officially out of ICU beds.


Guess what?

*All* of *Southern California* is now out of ICU beds.

https://laist.com/latest/post/20201217/icu-capacity-runs-out-socal-coronavirus-patients

Los Angeles mayor's daughter tests positive.

Frontline Workers' Unions Want To Shut Everything Down For A Month To Stop This COVID-19 Surge

State Officials Stock up on Body Bags as Coronavirus Pushes Southern California Hospitals to Their Limits
Skyrocketing coronavirus cases and hospitalizations forced state public health officials to order an additional 5,000 body bags and 60 refrigerated trucks ...
Voice of OC


----------



## Roger Knox

NoCoPilot said:


> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32623-4/fulltext
> https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55302595
> https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222hlr.html


Wow, these articles are hot off the press -- thank you.


----------



## Strange Magic

SixFootScowl said:


> That rules out discussion of Covid and vaccines because neither is fun to discuss and both are highly political.


That is the great tragedy--that COVID and the vaccines to contain it are highly political. It didn't used to be this way. It didn't need to be this way.


----------



## mmsbls

Thread temporarily closed while we consider inappropriate posting.


----------



## mmsbls

The thread has become excessively political with negative personal comments.

The Community Forum is not for political commentary. The guidelines are:



> This is the place for those fun, and not so serious threads, birthday greetings, & general chit-chat. Above all, be respectful to your fellow forum members as they have a right to their own opinions too! Any/All discussions about Politics or Religion are restricted to the Social Groups Members can create their own Social Group.


The reason we relegate political (and purely religious) comments to the Groups area is that there has been a long history of political discussions leading to insults, chiding, and other negative personal comments. Negative personal comments are a violation of our Terms of Service and cause some to refrain from posting or reading certain threads.

We have edited or deleted many posts that were either political or personal or both. There are many non-political aspects of the Covid vaccine that may be discussed here, but if you wish to discuss politics, please do so in the Groups area.

The thread is now open.


----------



## Guest

More good news on the vaccine front:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ronavirus-vaccine-emergency-use-across-the-us

On a personal level, my wife has had three Covid-19 tests now, all negative; my son just the one. As for me, I've had no reason to have the test but I will have the jab as soon as it's available here. It's not so much my age, it's more to do with my lungs which, as a former heavy smoker, are pretty compromised.


----------



## Ingélou

Dorsetmike said:


> Had my first jab this afternoon, second will be Jan 8th. Very well organised almost a production line, 4 consulting rooms used with a clerical type taking details and 2 nursing staff in each folowed by a distanced waiting area for a 10 minute "in case of after effects", I'd guess they were doing over 70 an hour
> The council and the plods had agreed not to enforce parking restrictions outside the clinic, not knowing this I'd parked way down he hill Grrrrrr.


Really pleased to hear you've had your jab, first instalment, Mike. Best wishes.


----------



## elgar's ghost

And now that a Tier 4 has been created today for London and much of the South East the formal approval and subsequent roll-out of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine can't come soon enough.


----------



## KenOC

As expected, the US FDA has approved the Moderna vaccine, about a week after approving the Pfizer product. The Moderna vaccine is cheaper and more easily stored than Pfizer’s. The government has agreed to order 200 million doses, of which 6 million are available now and should start shipping immediately.


----------



## NoCoPilot

I hope people don't let their guard down.


----------



## mikeh375

^^ if people do let their guard down or continue to not even bother with a guard then in future, we may have to deal with mutations that could become quite significant. The new strain that is 70% more effective in transmission is in our area and we are now in a tier 4 lockdown thanks to a combination of 20 odd mutations in CV19's spike protien and f***ing idiots and deniers.


----------



## DaveM

One of the mysteries of the pandemic is why, by this time, so many people can’t seem to wear a mask correctly. The National Football League (US) has been clamping down on coaches and staff that have been playing fast and loose with their masks on the side-line, most often with them hanging below the nose and the top of the mouth visible when they were talking. Some coaches have been fined thousands of dollars (starting at $100,000) more than once for letting their masks hang down while they’re yelling at the referees.

I was in a store the other day and a woman from about 5 feet away asked me a question with her mask hanging down to mid-mouth level. I told her I couldn’t talk to her until she pulled her mask up which she did with an apology to her credit.


----------



## NoCoPilot

My niece is a nurse at a local ICU. She hasn't been in the COVID ward, but today she was drafted into giving Pfizer vaccine shots to other staff at the hospital.

She said about 80% of the recipients wanted their picture taken as they received the shot. This is a VERY BIG DEAL to them!


----------



## Chilham

mikeh375 said:


> ^^ if people do let their guard down or continue to not even bother with a guard then in future, we may have to deal with mutations that could become quite significant. The new strain that is 70% more effective in transmission is in our area and we are now in a tier 4 lockdown thanks to a combination of 20 odd mutations in CV19's spike protien and f***ing idiots and deniers.


We've gone to Tier 4 too. Put paid to even our very modest plans for Christmas. Seems to me there's been way too many people insisting on their rights, whilst ignoring their responsibilities.


----------



## Open Book

DaveM said:


> One of the mysteries of the pandemic is why, by this time, so many people can't seem to wear a mask correctly. The National Football League (US) has been clamping down on coaches and staff that have been playing fast and loose with their masks on the side-line, most often with them hanging below the nose and the top of the mouth visible when they were talking. Some coaches have been fined thousands of dollars (starting at $100,000) more than once for letting their masks hang down while they're yelling at the referees.


The coaches pull the masks down so that their choice words can be heard better. Sports makes no sense to me. I think we really need sports and entertainment now but I don't see how these football games aren't spreading COVID. I don't see how the players can be safe, they wear masks only when on the bench if at all and seldom correctly. At some stadiums the audiences aren't socially distanced. And as you say, the participants are setting a terrible example with masks. Some viewers probably think it's OK to wear a mask as a chinstrap part-time because they see it on TV and no one is ever taken to task for it by the announcers.



DaveM said:


> I was in a store the other day and a woman from about 5 feet away asked me a question with her mask hanging down to mid-mouth level. I told her I couldn't talk to her until she pulled her mask up which she did with an apology to her credit.


In their defense I don't think all masks fit all people well. Everyone's face is a different shape and size. You have to find a mask that works for you.

A friend of mine is a big guy with a big head and he has to buy masks from a big and tall man's shop. His doctor's office makes patients replace the mask they wore into the waiting room with one of their own, which are the only ones they trust. My friend is incensed because those masks don't fit him well.

I was dealing with a woman at the desk in a hospital a while ago and her mask repeatedly slipped down over her nose as she talked. She kept pulling it back up and I wasn't comfortable that she had to keep putting her hand near her nose and face to do so. I think it was a matter of the elastics on the ears being too loose and her nose being too small. But you don't expect this in a hospital.

I have masks from different places and some fit me better than others, better seal, long enough under the chin, not pushing my glasses off my face. But by the time I go to repurchase the ones that worked, I invariably find that the company has changed their product.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> This week my son's company got a letter from mining giant BHP (my clever son is in the resources sector). It was from a female in senior management in BHP and *under her signature is written "SHE" or 'HER*". I was talking about this with my daughter-in-law last night and she said, "yes, it's pathetic, but this has been around for a while". What has this to do with science, I hear you ask? Apparently a boy can be a girl and vice versa; so science has been kicked to the kerb.
> 
> I spoke to two grandsons in Perth (11 and 8) an hour ago by phone about their school reports and asked them what's the topic most discussed at school: 'climate change' was the answer. I told them both that Australia's educational results have slipped below Kazakhstan and that they need to be able to think for themselves and to do as much WIDE reading as they can; that their school reports are constructed using gobbledygook from educational boffins and that they didn't tell me much about their school performance (I used to have to compile these reports myself when teaching in high school). Many parents will find them impenetrable educational jargon.
> 
> We discussed the topic of climate change and I told the boys that one of the idols of the climate change ideology in Australia is a man named Tim Flannery (we call him "Flim Flannery"); he predicted, over a decade ago, that the rain wouldn't fall again, the rivers would run dry and the dams would be empty. I told the boys, "as of today Sydney catchment is 98% full and we've even got flooding on the north coast". Asked by the spouse if that fact had been discussed at school - as an antidote to the bushfire horror narrative of 2020 - both boys said that it had not. I asked them to think about why this might be and I also told them that the same 'scientist' who predicted no more rain had been rewarded as an "Australian of the Year" in the past. For his work!! (We note that he's been back-pedalling more recently on what he said, denying this, qualifying that!!) My 11 year old grandson speculated that there was no mention of the flooding "because that's not as dangerous as bushfires?" But people are drowning; there is massive coastal erosion and whole towns are under water (this has happened very many times in our country). But it's just not graphic enough to terrify the people.  Somebody said on the news last night, "water is better than fire"!! (800,000 head of cattle were lost in 2011 in a Queensland flood, but that is tolerable if you're not footing the actual bill.)
> 
> No ideology in science!! Pull the other one.:lol:


Ask yourself and your grandsons where the energy for the imbalance resulting in flooding comes from.


----------



## KenOC

From BGR:.................



> A new coronavirus mutation was discovered in South Africa, where a version called 501.V2 seems to be fueling the second wave of COVID-19 in the nation.
> 
> The new strain seems to be more dangerous, causing more severe illness in younger patients who do not suffer from other medical conditions.


----------



## Flamme

Chilham said:


> We've gone to Tier 4 too. Put paid to even our very modest plans for Christmas. Seems to me there's been way too many people insisting on their rights, whilst ignoring their responsibilities.


A ''barage of farage''...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1340395740523356162


----------



## Chilham

Not certain I understand what your post has to do with mine, but okay.


----------



## Flamme

Why you so nervous all the time, chiill..It has to do with panic and chaos, new measures have caused. And with mass flight of the population into ''province''. According to Nige at least.


----------



## Ingélou

Chilham said:


> We've gone to Tier 4 too. Put paid to even our very modest plans for Christmas. Seems to me there's been way too many people insisting on their rights, whilst ignoring their responsibilities.


It doesn't affect our plans because we live in the north of England and there were only ever going to be the two of us anyway - we have no children, and my Mum has gone.

But listening to what's happening in London and the South & East, it makes me feel very dismayed. People who had planned to see relatives they hadn't seen for ages, maybe for the last time, and who'd taken every precaution with isolating and testing - it must feel like a body blow its being cancelled.

I think also that with the vaccine cavalry on the horizon, the sudden setback is even harder to take.


----------



## mikeh375

Ingélou said:


> It doesn't affect our plans because we live in the north of England and there were only ever going to be the two of us anyway - we have no children, and my Mum has gone.
> 
> But listening to what's happening in London and the South & East, it makes me feel very dismayed. People who had planned to see relatives they hadn't seen for ages, maybe for the last time, and who'd taken every precaution with isolating and testing - it must feel like a body blow its being cancelled.
> 
> I think also that with the vaccine cavalry on the horizon, the sudden setback is even harder to take.


Ingelou, batten down the hatches. Did you see pictures of the exodus from London yesterday? Idiots trying to 'beat' the lockdown all heading north. Don't they realise that if they are asymptomatic, it might be their last xmas with an elderly relative...and it will have been their fault. 
I wonder how many families will feel the anguish of an uncertain, yet possible guilt, along with the pain of loss in a month or two's time.

We are in the southeast and feel hemmed in by the new strain...it seems to be creeping ever closer.


----------



## Ingélou

mikeh375 said:


> Ingelou, batten down the hatches. Did you see pictures of the exodus from London yesterday? Idiots trying to 'beat' the lockdown all heading north. Don't they realise that if they are asymptomatic, it might be their last xmas with an elderly relative...and it will have been their fault.
> I wonder how many families will feel the anguish of an uncertain, possible guilt, along with the pain of loss in a month or two's time.
> 
> We are in the southeast and feel hemmed in by the new strain...it seems to be creeping ever closer.


I didn't see the pictures - we rely on the BBC news online as we don't now watch TV. That's the trouble - the longer the restrictions go on, the less they'll be observed. It's human nature. I hope they won't spread the new strain to elderly relatives. Guilt is a hard thing to live with.

Taggart & I have been very careful, because we are both having to attend hospital clinics. But it was nice to think we might be getting to the stage where we could have lived a little...


----------



## Malx

Ingélou said:


> I didn't see the pictures - we rely on the BBC news online as we don't now watch TV. That's the trouble - the longer the restrictions go on, the less they'll be observed. It's human nature.* I hope they won't spread the new strain to elderly relatives.* Guilt is a hard thing to live with.
> 
> Taggart & I have been very careful, because we are both having to attend hospital clinics. But it was nice to think we might be getting to the stage where we could have lived a little...


I agree, but would add that a large number of people don't think about a chain of transmission that could result in a serious situation for someone they don't know a few links along the chain - there is unfortunately an inability of many to look beyond their own little world.
If a larger number of people had thought about the common good and respected the basic rules then Christmas could have been a time of enjoyment for all.


----------



## Flamme

Ingélou said:


> I didn't see the pictures - we rely on the BBC news online as we don't now watch TV. That's the trouble - the longer the restrictions go on, the less they'll be observed. It's human nature. I hope they won't spread the new strain to elderly relatives. Guilt is a hard thing to live with.
> 
> Taggart & I have been very careful, because we are both having to attend hospital clinics. But it was nice to think we might be getting to the stage where we could have lived a little...


Mr faraghe took some interesting footage though...


----------



## Chilham

Flamme said:


> Why you so nervous all the time, chiill..It has to do with panic and chaos, new measures have caused. And with mass flight of the population into ''province''. According to Nige at least.


Why do you think I'm nervous? I'm perfectly chilled, thank you.

My post had nothing to do, "Panic and chaos". That's why I was surprised you decided to quote it. If you have something to say, just say it. You don't need my permission.


----------



## Chilham

Ingélou said:


> It doesn't affect our plans because we live in the north of England and there were only ever going to be the two of us anyway - we have no children, and my Mum has gone.
> 
> But listening to what's happening in London and the South & East, it makes me feel very dismayed. People who had planned to see relatives they hadn't seen for ages, maybe for the last time, and who'd taken every precaution with isolating and testing - it must feel like a body blow its being cancelled.
> 
> I think also that with the vaccine cavalry on the horizon, the sudden setback is even harder to take.


We're very lucky to live in a very quiet corner of a very rural village, so isolating/distsancing isn't an issue. We'd decided to spend Christmas just the two of us, but had planned to visit (outdoors) in-laws and our daughter. That can wait.

We'll be fine. Just disappointing.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

I exist in the dream of existence . This is free of shame . I do not mask . My sneezing is a very private issue , issue , issue ...'scuse me .


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Ask yourself and your grandsons where the energy for the imbalance resulting in flooding comes from.


Absolutely priceless. And wrong. Australia has a very regular rotation of "droughts and flooding rains". You wouldn't know that if you were trapped in an ideology, as though you were in a Beckett play, 'waiting for Godot'.


----------



## joen_cph

Regarding the verifying of global climate change, the waiting is at least over. 

Australia has seen climate changes too, with a temperature rise; for rainfall, the effects will vary between the individual regions.

BTW, Beckett preferred to be descriptive, with a pessimistic or absurdist angle, not much of a philosopher, and he left constructiveness for others to work with, if they bothered. Such as Sartre. But the two read and appreciated each other. Yet: a bit of a laissez-faire or free-rider, in a sense.

However, he'd tend to describe an infertile, barren environment for his characters. In his 'End Game', there's an occurred destruction or fencing-off of nature, accompanied by the sufferings of an absurd, alienated and repetitive human existence, for example. 

This has resulted in some renewed interest in his works recently, BTW parallel to the scientific identification of Earth's new, 'anthropocene age': humans as even destructors of their former environment, on an unprecedented scale, and creators of a new one. 

Some even think mythologically of the virus as nature's attempt to 'fight back'; but of course there's been lots of catastrophic virus outbreaks long before, and they also predate humans. The virus does constitute an opposing force, at least for a while. Yet, with apparently improved vaccine technology on the way, we even seem better prepared for survival.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> Absolutely priceless. And wrong. Australia has a very regular rotation of "droughts and flooding rains". You wouldn't know that if you were trapped in an ideology, as though you were in a Beckett play, 'waiting for Godot'.


For a long, rich discussion of Climate Change, the Groups is just the place!

https://www.talkclassical.com/groups/general-politics-d1908-climate-change.html


----------



## Flamme

Chilham said:


> Why do you think I'm nervous? I'm perfectly chilled, thank you.
> 
> My post had nothing to do, "Panic and chaos". That's why I was surprised you decided to quote it. If you have something to say, just say it. You don't need my permission.


Well your name is CHILLham so there is that! But in my response the ''tier 4'' is mentioned...I saw many comments online of people fearing that ''newcomers'' will bring the Virus in their communities.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Does anyone know if the UK government are issuing weekly figures as to how many vaccinations have been given?


----------



## mikeh375

elgars ghost said:


> Does anyone know if the UK government are issuing weekly figures as to how many vaccinations have been given?


I heard yesterday that it was around 500,000 so far, but no, I don't know if there will be regular updates. Let's face it though, there should be. Imagine how my excitement will build as I count down to number 48,572,000...yay


----------



## Open Book

Has anyone here who has taken the vaccine had any symptoms from it? That has been found to be true of the 2-dose Pfizer vaccine that was approved first in the U.S., that people experienced symptoms like mild fever that lasted about a day when they took their first dose.

I'd be interested in hearing if anyone here who has been vaccinated has experienced temporary symptoms. Any vaccine, anywhere in the world.


----------



## Flamme

I watched something on Croatian TV and they said it has side effects like ''any normal vaccine'', namely nausea, headache, the bruise on the point of the prick etc...


----------



## Open Book

Well, I never feel any side effects from my annual flu vaccine except slight soreness at the spot. So I'm wondering how much worse this vaccine gets.


----------



## joen_cph

In the US, ~3150 of ~112800 Pfizer-vaccinated people have found the side effects to be in some way a short-term hindrance for their daily occupations, Thomas Clark's report to the US health authorities CDC says.

I got a normal flu vaccine the other day and felt absolutely zero side effects. For the covid vaccine, I might have to wait 1/2 - 3/4 a year though.


----------



## Open Book

Yeah, people have been advised to take a precautionary day off from work following COVID vaccination.

Another economic blow from the virus.


----------



## pianozach

joen_cph said:


> Regarding the verifying of global climate change, the waiting is at least over.
> 
> Australia has seen climate changes too, with a temperature rise; for rainfall, the effects will vary between the individual regions.
> 
> BTW, Beckett preferred to be descriptive, with a pessimistic or absurdist angle, not much of a philosopher, and he left constructiveness for others to work with, if they bothered. Such as Sartre. But the two read and appreciated each other. Yet: a bit of a laissez-faire or free-rider, in a sense.
> 
> However, he'd tend to describe an infertile, barren environment for his characters. In his 'End Game', there's an occurred destruction or fencing-off of nature, accompanied by the sufferings of an absurd, alienated and repetitive human existence, for example.
> 
> This has resulted in some renewed interest in his works recently, BTW parallel to the scientific identification of Earth's new, 'anthropocene age': humans as even destructors of their former environment, on an unprecedented scale, and creators of a new one.
> 
> Some even think mythologically of the virus as nature's attempt to 'fight back'; but of course there's been lots of catastrophic virus outbreaks long before, and they also predate humans. The virus does constitute an opposing force, at least for a while. Yet, with apparently improved vaccine technology on the way, we even seem better prepared for survival.


Today is the *Winter Solstice*, notable for being the shortest day of the year for those of us in the Northern Hemisphere.

Here in my little pocket of SoCal it's currently 79°F at 11 AM. It will probably reach 81°F.

In Dudinka, Siberia, it's currently -42°F at 2 AM. Projected high for today there is -38°F.


----------



## mikeh375

We are in tier 4 in the UK and last night (the Winter Solstice) we could hear riding in on the wind a four to the floor disco beat accompanied by laughing and shouting. We live in the sticks and have heard this before emanating from an illegal rave somewhere nearby.

When will the kids learn, when they lose all prospects of a decent job, or a house because the country is on its knees? Or do they have to kill a loved relative with their asymptomatic condition? I doubt half of them even know or care what that word means.


----------



## Flamme

They probably think ''lets live life to the fullest today because tomorrow we may be 6 feet under!'' Idk..


----------



## pianozach

Flamme said:


> They probably think ''lets live life to the fullest today because tomorrow we may be 6 feet under!'' Idk..


Some may think that.

I think _most_ feel that they're young and healthy and strong, and will be able to fight it off like any old flu should they catch it.

Others may feel it's all an overblown hoax, a non-existent pandemic, fake news.


----------



## Barbebleu

Not that I would wish it on anyone but perhaps they need someone close to them to be affected, like myself. One dead, two ill. That might make them a little more careful.


----------



## pianozach

Barbebleu said:


> Not that I would wish it on anyone but perhaps they need someone close to them to be affected, like myself. One dead, two ill. That might make them a little more careful.


Yep. Many folks don't give a rat's *** until it happens to them, or to someone they know.

I just read a story about someone having a funeral for their dad, who died of COVID, and people at the memorial service weren't wearing masks. He was mortified. (Actually, that's a great pun. Unintended.)

_". . . we could hear riding in on the wind a four to the floor disco beat accompanied by laughing and shouting. We live in the sticks and have heard this before emanating from an illegal rave somewhere nearby."
_

Yeah, that's another reason I forgot to include. _"It only happens in the city"_, say people out in the country.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> Absolutely priceless. And wrong. Australia has a very regular rotation of "droughts and flooding rains". You wouldn't know that if you were trapped in an ideology, as though you were in a Beckett play, 'waiting for Godot'.


Your continent will be the hardest hit in the early stages of climate change. Its configuration is unique.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> Your continent will be the hardest hit in the early stages of climate change. Its configuration is unique.


How does the configuration of Australia affect its outcome due to climate change?


----------



## Open Book

Luchesi said:


> Your continent will be the hardest hit in the early stages of climate change. Its configuration is unique.


Sounds interesting. In what way?


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Your continent will be the hardest hit in the early stages of climate change. Its configuration is unique.


You know nothing about our 'configuration'. We have a strong history of vicious drought, fires, cyclones and floods. In a poem written over 100 years ago these were SOME of the words: it's called "A Sunburnt Country" by Dorothea Mackellar.

Core of my heart, my country!
Her pitiless blue sky,
When sick at heart, around us
We see the cattle die -
But then the grey clouds gather,
And we can bless again
The drumming of an army,
The steady, soaking rain.

Core of my heart, my country!
Land of the Rainbow Gold,
For flood and fire and famine,
She pays us back threefold -
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze.

Everywhere you go in Australia, along the coastal strips in particular, you can walk through ANY national park and see scarred trees in abundance - silent sentinels to past horrors of fire. Captain Cook, in 1770, reported fires in Australia in his log - particularly along the east coast.


----------



## Rogerx

adriesba said:


> *sigh*.... nevermind, I'm too tired for this.


Where on earth are you, haven't seen you in days


----------



## mikeh375

pianozach said:


> Yep. Many folks don't give a rat's *** until it happens to them, or to someone they know.
> 
> I just read a story about someone having a funeral for their dad, who died of COVID, and people at the memorial service weren't wearing masks. He was mortified. (Actually, that's a great pun. Unintended.)
> 
> _". . . we could hear riding in on the wind a four to the floor disco beat accompanied by laughing and shouting. We live in the sticks and have heard this before emanating from an illegal rave somewhere nearby."
> _
> 
> Yeah, that's another reason I forgot to include. * "It only happens in the city", say people out in the country.*


...not around here.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> How does the configuration of Australia affect its outcome due to climate change?


This is the wrong thread for this, but look at the shapes and the storm tracks and the currents and the latitudinal positions of the southern continents.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> You know nothing about our 'configuration'. We have a strong history of vicious drought, fires, cyclones and floods. In a poem written over 100 years ago these were SOME of the words: it's called "A Sunburnt Country" by Dorothea Mackellar.
> 
> Core of my heart, my country!
> Her pitiless blue sky,
> When sick at heart, around us
> We see the cattle die -
> But then the grey clouds gather,
> And we can bless again
> The drumming of an army,
> The steady, soaking rain.
> 
> Core of my heart, my country!
> Land of the Rainbow Gold,
> For flood and fire and famine,
> She pays us back threefold -
> Over the thirsty paddocks,
> Watch, after many days,
> The filmy veil of greenness
> That thickens as we gaze.
> 
> Everywhere you go in Australia, along the coastal strips in particular, you can walk through ANY national park and see scarred trees in abundance - silent sentinels to past horrors of fire. Captain Cook, in 1770, reported fires in Australia in his log - particularly along the east coast.


The energy content of the planet goes up by the energy of about 300,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs every day. That sounds scary.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Luchesi said:


> The energy content of the planet goes up by the energy of about 300,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs every day. That sounds scary.


Luckily not all in one place.


----------



## Flamme




----------



## pianozach

Flamme said:


>


Jaw. Floor.

.

.


----------



## Guest

Some very inconvenient truths:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/27/lockdown-a-deadly-failed-experiment/


----------



## bz3

Christabel said:


> Some very inconvenient truths:
> 
> https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/27/lockdown-a-deadly-failed-experiment/


Probably tough for some to hear today and you'll get called names for even posting this, but I think in 20 years that promoting 'lockdowns' in response to viral infectious disease will be treated something like speaking Russian on the streets of Warsaw today. The destruction we've allowed to be visited upon ourselves and especially our most vulnerable will be an inflection point, for good or ill, in the hard years ahead.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> Some very inconvenient truths:
> 
> https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/27/lockdown-a-deadly-failed-experiment/


Christabel, did you actually _read_ the article before linking to it?



Fraser Myers said:


> *None of this is to say we can throw off all the restrictions tomorrow and everything will be fine.* But it is striking just how little questioning there has been of either the efficacy or the harms of the defining policy of the pandemic. Even if the lockdown debate becomes academic at some point in the new year, and despite the fact that lockdown has clearly failed, there is a danger lockdown becomes the default policy for the next pandemic - if not for some other threat. And there will be another one.
> 
> We cannot let this deadly, failed experiment be repeated. 2020 must be the last year of lockdown.


Note Mr. Myers says **IF** the lockdown debate becomes academic in the new year. If. Meaning, right now, it is NOT academic and we CANNOT "throw off all the restrictions and everything will be fine."

Lockdowns only work if everyone participates. If the lockdown has clearly failed the reasons are not hard to discern. The woman in the video just above your post is the reason why COVID continues to spread wantonly. Idiot Karens who don't understand the very *basics* of transmission.

Lockdowns, and mask-wearing, and hand-washing, and most importantly, not socializing with unrelated people of unknown diagnosis.

It's not rocket science.

If all the idiot Karens would stay home, the pandemic would be over in two weeks.


----------



## Roger Knox

NoCoPilot said:


> Lockdowns, and mask-wearing, and hand-washing, and most importantly, not socializing with unrelated people of unknown diagnosis.


Would a certificate of epidemic preparedness would be a good idea? We have standard certificates for CPR, First Aid, swimming, etc. The question is, people will say that no two epidemics are alike. That's true, but there are some basics that need to be learned and practised. It could be taught to youths and adults, beginning tomorrow. Instead of the phony "two sides" "debate," train people in skills and knowledge. Make it an accomplishment.


----------



## NoCoPilot

CPR, and swimming, and First Aid are *skills,* which take a fair amount of training and practice to master. And the consequences for NOT doing them well can be deadly.

Epidemic Preparedness is *not a skill*. It is -- simply -- stay home, or stay safe when in public. A few SIMPLE precautions are all you need to know. It's not training you need; it's COMMON SENSE.

And the consequences for NOT doing it well can still be deadly.

Our last global pandemic of this scale was 100 years ago. Anybody trained after THAT one is dead now.

Hopefully, the NEXT pandemic won't be just around the corner... so training now for the next one hopefully doesn't make sense.


----------



## Strange Magic

I note merely that nowhere in Christabel's link are mentioned masking (exception: the word "masking" appears once but with no assessment of the degree to which it was actually practiced or even enforced), social distancing, hand washing--three essential elements of a rigorous defense against the spread of pandemics. Nor was mentioned the extent of compliance with injunctions to voluntarily actually limit close associations/gatherings--public or private. Instead, a blunderbuss was fired in the general direction of lockdowns, but we are growing used to the firing of such blunderbusses from certain fortress windows. A lot of smoke and noise.....


----------



## joen_cph

There have obvious differences in strategy between the otherwise quite comparable countries here in Scandinavia, resulting in just as obvious differences as regards the number of fatalities and the severity of the virus attacks. 

And btw, the economical 'benefit' of less lock-down in Sweden has so far been practically insignificant. The Danish economy seems to be restituting surprisingly quickly. 

In the end, Sweden has now felt it necessary to introduce more lock-down features. But they've had many more deaths in the first phases, not resulting in any measurable herd immunity anyway.


----------



## Chilham

It's unlikely that a right-libertarian leaning site like Spiked would give anything like a balanced analysis. I'm sure it speaks to some people's prejudice, so they accept it as, "Truth". It doesn't mean Spiked doesn't have a point worthy of discussion. They just can't, or don't want to see beyond their own bias.


----------



## NoCoPilot

All this talk about "FREEDOM." It's been 100 years since the last global pandemic, and that one was lengthened and deepened by deniers too. In the end between 50 million and 100 million people DIED of the Spanish Flu. It was a world tragedy so immense, stacked on top of the World War, that it was, and largely remains, *unfathomable*. Lots and lots of famous people died, and tens of millions you've never heard of.

Is it worth FREEDOM to kill 50 million people needlessly? How many lives is FREEDOM worth?

Who gains when recalcitrant individuals demand their FREEDOM instead of taking basic safety measures to protect the public good?

What good is FREEDOM during a global pandemic?

Christabel, this is directed at you.


----------



## Flamme

I remember I posted an article here few months ago about Chinese discovering 9 mutations of the Virus. I was scolded here that they always lie and there are NO mutations existing...Now...


----------



## XLIFE4EVER

I will laugh my *** off, when you become deaf because of this !!!


----------



## Rogerx

XLIFE4EVER said:


> I will laugh my *** off, when you become deaf because of this !!!


So, we all know that, thanks


----------



## XLIFE4EVER

Rogerx said:


> So, we all know that, thanks


How do you know ? The leafleat is extremely hard to find even if you search for it...

Maybe you're lucky and just have the brain bleeding....


----------



## NoCoPilot

WTH? What is a "leafleat"? What does deafness have to do with anything? Is this more QAnonsense?


----------



## NoCoPilot

Flamme said:


> I remember I posted an article here few months ago about Chinese discovering 9 mutations of the Virus. I was scolded here that they always lie and there are NO mutations existing...Now...


I read recently there are something like 45 known variants in the virus, all of them minor, all of them addressed by the big three vaccines.


----------



## Rogerx

XLIFE4EVER said:


> How do you know ? The leafleat is extremely hard to find even if you search for it...
> 
> Maybe you're lucky and just have the brain bleeding....


Search for your manners first .


----------



## XLIFE4EVER

NoCoPilot said:


> WTH? What is a "leafleat"? What does deafness have to do with anything? Is this more QAnonsense?


Deafness is listed as a possible side effect in the official package leaflet... among brain bleeding and other nasty things... now try to find it on the internet...


----------



## NoCoPilot

If it's the official leaflet why is it hard to find? I think you have your wires crossed.


----------



## joen_cph

Obviously, there must be only one official leaflet, on a global scale.


----------



## NoCoPilot

And they hide it


----------



## Flamme

NoCoPilot said:


> I read recently there are something like 45 known variants in the virus, all of them minor, all of them addressed by the big three vaccines.


Is it? I read somewhere that Pfizer is ''OK'' but Moderna has to make a new one for the British mutation...


----------



## XLIFE4EVER

NoCoPilot said:


> If it's the official leaflet why is it hard to find?


Yeah, you're totally right. That's perfectly normal. Why even bother ? Just inject and have fun !!!

NoCoPilot is has the straightest wires EVER :devil:

:lol::lol::lol:


----------



## Strange Magic

XLIFE4EVER said:


> I will laugh my *** off, when you become deaf because of this !!!


I find the most useful and interesting posts are those wherein the poster clearly states a thesis and then provides evidence to support it. I can only assume here that XLIFE4EVER may be addressing, in a roundabout, backdoor,"fun" way, the possible side effects of the vaccine. But why not just discuss the possible side effects of the vaccine--what has been published, how widespread are they, etc.? Too clever by half.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> Some very inconvenient truths:
> 
> https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/27/lockdown-a-deadly-failed-experiment/


Talk about data cherry-picking. They focus on Belgium, a tiny country with a big spike and the UK, whose response has not been ideal. Small sample size can result in extreme fluctuations. There is a county in Kansas where 1 in 147 people has died of Covid. In the U.S. California is now one of the worst affected, which seems inconsistent with the government's relatively proactive response. California has some special circumstances, such as a lot of travel with Asia in the early days and a lot of undocumented agricultural workers who are particularly vulnerable.

This is the big picture, statistics compiled by the New York Times and scaled to population. The U.S. is the worst affected, Europe is mostly much less severely affected, except for Sweden, which refused lockdowns, and a few small countries like Belgium. When they talk about spikes in Europe they don't come close to what is considered normal state of affairs in the U.S.









Lockdowns work. When the cases shot up subsequent lockdowns pushed the rates down again. Total lockdowns are perhaps too blunt a tool and going forward it will be possible to determine which types of establishment are responsible high transmission rate and which types of establishment are relatively safe and can be allowed to remain open.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage


----------



## Luchesi

XLIFE4EVER said:


> Yeah, you're totally right. That's perfectly normal. Why even bother ? Just inject and have fun !!!
> 
> NoCoPilot is has the straightest wires EVER :devil:
> 
> :lol::lol::lol:


It's interesting how you think. Looking at your youtube channel, we possibly have a generation gap here. Or maybe two generations..


----------



## DaveM

XLIFE4EVER said:


> I will laugh my *** off, when you become deaf because of this !!!





XLIFE4EVER said:


> Deafness is listed as a possible side effect in the official package leaflet... among brain bleeding and other nasty things... now try to find it on the internet...





XLIFE4EVER said:


> Yeah, you're totally right. That's perfectly normal. Why even bother ? Just inject and have fun !!!
> 
> NoCoPilot is has the straightest wires EVER :devil:
> 
> :lol::lol::lol:


It's been reported that reading the official leaflet causes brain damage resulting in unusual behavior.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Strange Magic said:


> I find the most useful and interesting posts are those wherein the poster clearly states a thesis and then provides evidence to support it. I can only assume here that XLIFE4EVER may be addressing, in a roundabout, backdoor,"fun" way, the possible side effects of the vaccine. But why not just discuss the possible side effects of the vaccine--what has been published, how widespread are they, etc.? Too clever by half.


Disrupters don't aim to be clever.


----------



## Flamme

Lots of funny vids there but his twitter is a real peach...https://twitter.com/XLIFE4EVER1


----------



## NoCoPilot

XLIFE4EVER said:


> NoCoPilot is has the straightest wires EVER


Can has cheezburgr?


----------



## Open Book

Baron Scarpia said:


> Talk about data cherry-picking. They focus on Belgium, a tiny country with a big spike and the UK, whose response has not been ideal. Small sample size can result in extreme fluctuations. There is a county in Kansas where 1 in 147 people has died of Covid. In the U.S. California is now one of the worst affected, which seems inconsistent with the government's relatively proactive response. California has some special circumstances, such as a lot of travel with Asia in the early days and a lot of undocumented agricultural workers who are particularly vulnerable.
> 
> This is the big picture, statistics compiled by the New York Times and scaled to population. The U.S. is the worst affected, Europe is mostly much less severely affected, except for Sweden, which refused lockdowns, and a few small countries like Belgium. When they talk about spikes in Europe they don't come close to what is considered normal state of affairs in the U.S.
> 
> View attachment 148015
> 
> 
> Lockdowns work. When the cases shot up subsequent lockdowns pushed the rates down again. Total lockdowns are perhaps too blunt a tool and going forward it will be possible to determine which types of establishment are responsible high transmission rate and which types of establishment are relatively safe and can be allowed to remain open.
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage


We're so self-centered, has anybody wondered why so much of the world outside of Europe and North America looks so much less affected, according to all the maps and lack of mention in the news?

I'm assuming the color coding on that map shows COVID-19 cases per capita.

Life expectancy is lower in third world countries and the disease does most of its worst work on older people. But you would think the disease would spread just as rapidly everywhere and there should still be a lot of people infected in these countries so that they'd be orange or red like us. Unless having more young people means more asymptomatic, undetectable cases.


----------



## NoCoPilot

If you look at world statistics, COVID is everywhere. Even Antarctica got their first case recently. 

South America (Peru and Chile) have been hit especially hard. Mortality is lower in countries with less counter-factual rightwing media. Quality of the healthcare systems has an effect too.


----------



## Open Book

NoCoPilot said:


> If you look at world statistics, COVID is everywhere. Even Antarctica got their first case recently.
> 
> South America (Peru and Chile) have been hit especially hard. Mortality is lower in countries with less counter-factual rightwing media. Quality of the healthcare systems has an effect too.


You're not making a case as to why most of the world shows lighter colors than the U.S. and Europe. Including Peru and Chile. Lack of good diagnostic tools and statistics-keeping? Or is the spread really slower in these places?


----------



## NoCoPilot

Explore this site for current in-depth information and statistics.
https://ncov2019.live/data

USA is 2nd in the world in cases per capita.

11th in deaths per capita.

#1 in total deaths and #1 in total cases. In fact, we have more cases than #2 (India) and #3 (Brazil) combined, even though our population is only 20% of their combined populations. We also have more deaths than #2 (Brazil) and #3 (India) combined ... WE'RE NUMBER ONE! YAY! AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM!


----------



## Flamme

The southern you go the slower the spread!!!


----------



## Open Book

The U.S. is number one, but Europe is close behind, so you can't blame it all on Trumpian politics. Within the U.S. there doesn't seem to be much difference between Red states and Blue states anymore. Why do these parts of the world look the worst? It didn't take long at all to spread throughout America and Europe, but many months later other parts of the world apparently haven't caught fire like we have, like you'd expect. 

I don't need more stats to tell me that. There are plenty of sources of stats already. I'm curious as to why.


----------



## Flamme

Some say it is because of bad diet in States and comorbidities in both States and Europe, the mass of older population etc.


----------



## Strange Magic

The ability of governments and agencies to accurately gather data.
The willingness/desire of governments and agencies to accurately gather data.
The willingness/desire of governments and agencies to report data.
The willingness of governments/agencies to intervene in a pandemic for ideological reasons.
The ability of governments/agencies to widely spread guidance over vast distances and/or populations, should they choose to intervene.
The willingness of large segments of populations to adhere to guidance from their governments/agencies. Trust. Science.


----------



## NoCoPilot

True. India has much more respect for science than the United States. China too.


----------



## Luchesi

NoCoPilot said:


> True. India has much more respect for science than the United States. China too.


China and India don't have the religious stories telling people that science is not all that important in the LONG run. What sort of awareness do we want?


----------



## Open Book

Strange Magic said:


> The ability of governments and agencies to accurately gather data.
> The willingness/desire of governments and agencies to accurately gather data.
> The willingness/desire of governments and agencies to report data.
> The willingness of governments/agencies to intervene in a pandemic for ideological reasons.
> The ability of governments/agencies to widely spread guidance over vast distances and/or populations, should they choose to intervene.
> The willingness of large segments of populations to adhere to guidance from their governments/agencies. Trust. Science.


And Third World countries fall into which categories?


----------



## Open Book

China has so much respect for science, they steal ours.


----------



## Open Book

Flamme said:


> Some say it is because of bad diet in States and comorbidities in both States and Europe, the mass of older population etc.


Older population would account for a greater number of severe cases and deaths.

But not more contagion. The map is proportion of population that has gotten sick.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Open Book said:


> The map is proportion of population that has gotten sick.





NoCoPilot said:


> USA is 2nd in the world in cases per capita.
> 
> 11th in deaths per capita.
> 
> #1 in total deaths and #1 in total cases. In fact, we have more cases than #2 (India) and #3 (Brazil) combined, even though our population is only 20% of their combined populations. We also have more deaths than #2 (Brazil) and #3 (India) combined ...


We are second in per capita infection, behind only Czechia... which is the Czech Republic, population 10½ million.


----------



## Strange Magic

> Quote Originally Posted by Strange Magic:
> The ability of governments and agencies to accurately gather data.
> The willingness/desire of governments and agencies to accurately gather data.
> The willingness/desire of governments and agencies to report data.
> The willingness of governments/agencies to intervene in a pandemic for ideological reasons.
> The ability of governments/agencies to widely spread guidance over vast distances and/or populations, should they choose to intervene.
> The willingness of large segments of populations to adhere to guidance from their governments/agencies. Trust. Science.





> Open Book: "And Third World countries fall into which categories?"


My list above was of those factors that would either alone or in any sort of combination govern the incidence of COVID and the implementation of its suppression. It is provided as a tool for anyone concerned with listing and ranking countries in those categories. I would be interested in your (Open Book's) selections of which criteria, country by country, third world or not, apply. In the USA, in many ways a third world country, a combination of ideology and of a certain personal clinical picture in a key individual, severely distorted an otherwise expected early control of the pandemic.


----------



## Luchesi

Strange Magic said:


> My list above was of those factors that would either alone or in any sort of combination govern the incidence of COVID and the implementation of its suppression. It is provided as a tool for anyone concerned with listing and ranking countries in those categories. I would be interested in your (Open Book's) selections of which criteria, country by country, third world or not, apply. In the USA, in many ways a third world country, a combination of ideology and of a certain personal clinical picture in a key individual, severely distorted an otherwise expected early control of the pandemic.


Rich people have an irrational fear of becoming poor again.


----------



## Strange Magic

Luchesi said:


> Rich people have an irrational fear of becoming poor again.


Yes. Yes, they do. And sometimes the fear is not irrational. Please enlarge upon your somewhat "elliptical" thought and tell how it applies here. I know I'm not rich, sometimes wish I was, and certainly don't want to be poor, whether again or for the first time.


----------



## KenOC

"Small Number of Covid Patients Develop Severe Psychotic Symptoms"

A rather gruesome and disturbing story, but the NYT carefully avoids the Z-word throughout.


----------



## Open Book

I don't know what the Z word is.

Anybody anxious about having contractors in your home at this time? I've been putting it off, but I'm going to need a plumber soon. My hard water causes my fixtures to disintegrate every few years. It's getting time for a replacement.

Blue collar workers as a group seem lax about wearing masks. I don't want them in my small house. It's winter, too cold to want to ventilate by opening windows. 

And the plumber would actually be in more danger from me if I were sick since the air should be full of the contents of my lungs. I wouldn't want to be a plumber or electrician or anybody who has to work inside people's houses right now.


----------



## Strange Magic

Have you looked into a water softener system? Requires periodic refilling of chemicals and periodic maintenance, but likely cheaper than new fixtures every few years. But I'd put it off until the future looks clearer.


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> I don't know what the Z word is.


Eh. Zombie of course. A known hazard of the virus and the vaccine as well. This is among the things they don't tell you.


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> Some very inconvenient truths:
> 
> https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/27/lockdown-a-deadly-failed-experiment/


The article does a bit of CYA: _*"None of this is to say we can throw off all the restrictions tomorrow and everything will be fine."*_ The article isn't fully on board with its own premise.

And it's no wonder - It (rather, Fred, the writer) keeps saying the lockdown "has failed", but doesn't really delve into anything that would support that, and without support for his hypothesis, it makes his conclusion pretty speculative. His un-fact to support his premise is that it has cost us dearly in "Freedom". With this tent pole I'll have to show you just how ridiculous this supposition is: We are all being called upon to take some measures, to make some sacrifices to try to keep our fellow Americans safe from a virus.

"Freedom"? Look, freedom is quite compatible with effective government handling of a pandemic. Those that refuse to wear masks, or socially distance, or even just wash their hands, well, after all, anyone who is dead or seriously ill does not benefit much from being "free".


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> "Small Number of Covid Patients Develop Severe Psychotic Symptoms"
> 
> A rather gruesome and disturbing story, but the NYT carefully avoids the Z-word throughout.


So . . . last week a high school choir teacher died. She was healthy, early 50s, and a great singer.

After leading her church choir on Sunday she felt exhausted. She tested positive on Monday, and passed away from a blood clot (one of COVID-19s random symptoms) on Tuesday.

No underlying conditions.

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/...B073FiDSWmXKt8Gqc4IDsH0q9oaBMWzz-cNlDv5bkp5ow


----------



## Ingélou

pianozach said:


> So . . . last week a high school choir teacher died. She was healthy, early 50s, and a great singer.
> 
> After leading her church choir on Sunday she felt exhausted. She tested positive on Monday, and passed away from a blood clot (one of COVID-19s random symptoms) on Tuesday.
> 
> No underlying conditions.
> 
> https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/...B073FiDSWmXKt8Gqc4IDsH0q9oaBMWzz-cNlDv5bkp5ow


'Like' doesn't seem appropriate. Very sorry to hear of this. That's the trouble with this illness - it is so unpredictable. 
Hoping the vaccine will be rolled out by the summer with a good take-up and that the current wave here in the UK starts to subside soon.


----------



## NoCoPilot

*SixFootScowl *said somewhere (can't be bothered to find it), something along the lines of, "Why all this fuss over a disease that 99% of people survive?"

We could quibble over the 99% but the real figure is in that basic neighborhood.

What's more important is to pull out and take a look at the idea that one percent (or three) is okay, is acceptable, is worth the risk of keeping businesses open and parties happening and sporting events on schedule. 1% of 331 million people is three million people dead. It's HUNDREDS of millions of people in hospital, taking up the ICU beds, preventing auto accidents and cancer victims from getting treatment.

And that's just the US. If you look globally (as we MUST in a global pandemic) you're talking 7.8 billion people, so one percent is 80 million deaths. How anyone can be THAT callous is beyond me. It shows incredible hubris.


----------



## Guest

More news from the front line (or from the "coalface", if you prefer):
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/29/christmas-patients-coronavirus-intensive-care

On the personal level, my sister (a retired midwife and currently a volunteer worker in a hospice) has just been diagnosed with Covid along with 3 of her co-workers. What she has to say about those expounding the "economic argument" would not be allowed on this forum.


----------



## Open Book

And what about the doctors, nurses, EMTs, etc. who have to deal with COVID patients? Why do the skeptics and scoffers who want open up businesses never think of them and what they go through while they party sans mask? 

Medical personnel are working very hard and risking exposure. Many of them are terrified of passing the disease on to their families. They are battle-weary. 

Are they expected to be on the front lines forever and continually expose themselves to this disease? Fewer people will want to enter medicine as a profession if this keeps up.

How about trying to fight this? We owe it to the medical people. And other front line workers, too.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> *SixFootScowl *said somewhere (can't be bothered to find it), something along the lines of, "Why all this fuss over a disease that 99% of people survive?"
> 
> We could quibble over the 99% but the real figure is in that basic neighborhood.
> 
> What's more important is to pull out and take a look at the idea that one percent (or three) is okay, is acceptable, is worth the risk of keeping businesses open and parties happening and sporting events on schedule. 1% of 331 million people is three million people dead. It's HUNDREDS of millions of people in hospital, taking up the ICU beds, preventing auto accidents and cancer victims from getting treatment.
> 
> And that's just the US. If you look globally (as we MUST in a global pandemic) you're talking 7.8 billion people, so one percent is 80 million deaths. How anyone can be THAT callous is beyond me. It shows incredible hubris.


1% refers to the percentage of people who catch the virus - it isn't of total global population.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> And what about the doctors, nurses, EMTs, etc. who have to deal with COVID patients? Why do the skeptics and scoffers who want open up businesses never think of them and what they go through while they party sans mask?
> 
> Medical personnel are working very hard and risking exposure. Many of them are terrified of passing the disease on to their families. They are battle-weary.
> 
> Are they expected to be on the front lines forever and continually expose themselves to this disease? Fewer people will want to enter medicine as a profession if this keeps up.
> 
> How about trying to fight this? We owe it to the medical people. And other front line workers, too.


The specifics of this disease aside - isn't this what one signs up for when one goes into the health professions? Don't they already wear PPE, because every person they encounter is a potential carrier of something? Forgive me, but that is akin to a person who has volunteered to the military complaining about having to put their life in danger - or a fireman, or a policeman. That is kind of in the job description, not incidental.


----------



## Guest

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/27/lockdown-a-deadly-failed-experiment/

Good luck to "the Shark" in his Covid recovery.

https://www.today.com/video/greg-norman-shares-details-of-his-struggle-with-covid-19-98526789735


----------



## Strange Magic

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> The specifics of this disease aside - isn't this what one signs up for when one goes into the health professions? Don't they already wear PPE, because every person they encounter is a potential carrier of something? Forgive me, but that is akin to a person who has volunteered to the military complaining about having to put their life in danger - or a fireman, or a policeman. That is kind of in the job description, not incidental.


Such a wonderful post! Empathetic, warm, understanding yet realistic...words can hardly describe it.....

Albert Camus only skirted around the edges....https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Plague


----------



## NoCoPilot

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> 1% refers to the percentage of people who catch the virus - it isn't of total global population.


You sure about that Mike?


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> The specifics of this disease aside - isn't this what one signs up for when one goes into the health professions? Don't they already wear PPE, because every person they encounter is a potential carrier of something? Forgive me, but that is akin to a person who has volunteered to the military complaining about having to put their life in danger - or a fireman, or a policeman. That is kind of in the job description, not incidental.


Open Book was showing compassion for the frontline medical workers. This isn't someone in that category complaining. In fact, when medical personnel are interviewed on TV, by far, their message is one of warning people about how dangerous this virus is rather than some 'poor me' message.

Incidentally, no one will really appreciate what angels ER, OR and ICU nurses are until they need one and experience their caring. Only very special people sign up for that line of work.


----------



## Flamme

Christabel said:


> https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/27/lockdown-a-deadly-failed-experiment/
> 
> Good luck to "the Shark" in his Covid recovery.
> 
> https://www.today.com/video/greg-norman-shares-details-of-his-struggle-with-covid-19-98526789735


It jumped the shark?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> You sure about that Mike?


oCoN - the name is Ekim. As someone has made clear to me recently, we must be correct in how we refer to one another.


----------



## Flamme

Strange Magic said:


> Such a wonderful post! Empathetic, warm, understanding yet realistic...words can hardly describe it.....


U too k words right from my mouth, strange...:angel:


----------



## NoCoPilot

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> oCoN - the name is Ekim. As someone has made clear to me recently, we must be correct in how we refer to one another.


I was, Mike. Sock puppeting a new name doesn't change who you really are.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sock_puppet_account


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> It jumped the shark?


Yes. He's a champion, is Greg Norman. Made a fortune from golf. What's not to love?


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Such a wonderful post! Empathetic, warm, understanding yet realistic...words can hardly describe it.....
> 
> Albert Camus only skirted around the edges....https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Plague


Nothing short of total hand-wringing, victimhood and doom will ever satisfy some people. My 41y/o son spent most of his childhood and youth in hospital with 37 admissions for intractable vomiting/migraine. How about every 4 minutes for 3-4 days. He knows all about suffering, complete with torn stomach and esophagus. He has grown into a level-headed man and these episodes occur now every 3 or 4 years and anti-emetic medication has improved outcomes whenever he is admitted to hospital. But he knows real suffering and never discusses this, nor does he wring his hands over Covid-19. You sure learn how to toughen up when you've been to hell and back with illness.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> Nothing short of total hand-wringing, victimhood and doom will ever satisfy some people. My 41y/o son spent most of his childhood and youth in hospital with 37 admissions for intractable vomiting/migraine. How about every 4 minutes for 3-4 days. He knows all about suffering, complete with torn stomach and esophagus. He has grown into a level-headed man and these episodes occur now every 3 or 4 years and anti-emetic medication has improved outcomes whenever he is admitted to hospital. But he knows real suffering and never discusses this, nor does he wring his hands over Covid-19. You sure learn how to toughen up when you've been to hell and back with illness.


These calls for Roman stoicism are also wonderful! Keep them coming! We could all profit from your strength (at second hand). We've just got to suck it up......


----------



## Jacck

Christabel said:


> Nothing short of total hand-wringing, victimhood and doom will ever satisfy some people. My 41y/o son spent most of his childhood and youth in hospital with 37 admissions for intractable vomiting/migraine. How about every 4 minutes for 3-4 days. He knows all about suffering, complete with torn stomach and esophagus. He has grown into a level-headed man and these episodes occur now every 3 or 4 years and anti-emetic medication has improved outcomes whenever he is admitted to hospital. But he knows real suffering and never discusses this, nor does he wring his hands over Covid-19. You sure learn how to toughen up when you've been to hell and back with illness.


Toughen up? Why do you think common sense is in conflict with toughness? If I meet a poisonous snake, then common sense says to slowly back away and avoid it. If a deadly virus comes, common sense is to take sensible precautions not to catch it.


----------



## KenOC

Renowned Chinese pianist Fou Ts'ong dies of Covid-19 - BBC News

Many years ago I had an LP of Fou Ts'ong playing Mozart concertos -- k. 503 and k. 595 I think. I very much enjoyed it. He died at age 86.


----------



## Luchesi

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> The specifics of this disease aside - isn't this what one signs up for when one goes into the health professions? Don't they already wear PPE, because every person they encounter is a potential carrier of something? Forgive me, but that is akin to a person who has volunteered to the military complaining about having to put their life in danger - or a fireman, or a policeman. That is kind of in the job description, not incidental.


But for these people (who feel obligated) the new danger now is that after they recover their immune system will continue to attack their brains and give them many types of mental disabilities. Hopefully it's only temporary.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Renowned Chinese pianist Fou Ts'ong dies of Covid-19 - BBC News
> 
> Many years ago I had an LP of Fou Ts'ong playing Mozart concertos -- k. 503 and k. 595 I think. I very much enjoyed it. He died at age 86.


Whoever wrote this might've died of scarlet fever.





https://musescore.com/user/24335356/scores/5912763

"A recently discovered piece by Mozart, (possibly) written during his great tour in Europe, while he was 11 years old. This piece might be part of an earlier sonata."


----------



## NoCoPilot

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> 1% refers to the percentage of people who catch the virus - it isn't of total global population.


I want to circle back to this briefly. I think I initially misunderstood what Mike was trying to say. It wasn't that only 1% of the population will catch COVID. What he was trying to say is that, "of all the people who DO catch COVID, only one percent will die."

Presumably, he was coupling that in his mind with the theory, unproven but widely promoted in conservative circles, that once 70% of all people get infected, the disease will stop in its tracks because of 'herd immunity.' He didn't mention this, but it's the only way to parse his comment so it makes any sense.

Now, herd immunity -- if it's real for this disease, which is so far unproven -- could take anywhere from an 70% infection rate to 80 or 90% infection rate. Nobody knows, because there is no data.

For comparison, the Spanish Flu in 1918-20 infected an estimated 33% of the world population. Did it stop because of 'herd immunity'? No, it largely stopped spreading due to quarantining, social distancing and mask wearing. But it never went away.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Public_health_management

So let's accept the 70% figure as a pure hypothetical. If 70% of the world's 7.8 billion people need to become infected to create herd immunity, that's *five billion four-hundred sixty million infections*. At a 1% mortality rate -- again, too low by a factor of 3, but let it pass -- that means the Dr. Scott Atlases of the world are willing to sacrifice 54,600,000 of their fellow citizens to keep the bowling alleys open. And again, several hundred million, maybe a billion people in intensive care.

That is considered a good trade-off?

It's impossible to understand how anyone could promote this.


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> The specifics of this disease aside - isn't this what one signs up for when one goes into the health professions? Don't they already wear PPE, because every person they encounter is a potential carrier of something? Forgive me, but that is akin to a person who has volunteered to the military complaining about having to put their life in danger - or a fireman, or a policeman. That is kind of in the job description, not incidental.


Most of them didn't sign up for a constant battle against a ubiquitous, potentially very dangerous infectious disease, a new situation, not normal conditions when they decided to enter the medical profession. Every patient is a potential carrier of something, but there aren't many dangerous infectious somethings out there that we haven't conquered, it was unlikely that medical workers would face this kind of thing very often before COVID.

Why should anyone want to keep facing this indefinitely and putting their families at risk of infection? At least firemen's and soldiers' jobs don't put their families in danger beyond the sad loss of the fireman or soldier.


----------



## DaveM

Regarding the challenges of epidemics that healthcare workers face: The HIV epidemic was a particular risk to healthcare workers working in operating rooms where exposure to blood was a daily event. The worst period was during the 80s when much of the disease was a mystery except how it was spread and there was very limited treatment. 

What is little known is that because of U.S. privacy laws, if an HIV patient was coming in for surgery, OR nurses and technicians were not supposed to be informed they were being exposed. At least, that was what officials were demanding...


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> So . . . last week a high school choir teacher died. She was healthy, early 50s, and a great singer.
> 
> After leading her church choir on Sunday she felt exhausted. She tested positive on Monday, and passed away from a blood clot (one of COVID-19s random symptoms) on Tuesday.
> 
> No underlying conditions.
> 
> https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/...B073FiDSWmXKt8Gqc4IDsH0q9oaBMWzz-cNlDv5bkp5ow





Ingélou said:


> 'Like' doesn't seem appropriate. Very sorry to hear of this. That's the trouble with this illness - it is so unpredictable.
> Hoping the vaccine will be rolled out by the summer with a good take-up and that the current wave here in the UK starts to subside soon.


Tonight's BREAKING Covid-19 death: A newly elected GOP Representative from Louisiana has died from COVID-19 before he could even be sworn in.

Congressman-elect *Luke Letlow* tested positive on December 18th, admitted to the hospital December 19th, and shortly thereafter transferred and placed in the ICU December 22nd or 23rd when his condition deteriorated.

He was 41, and had no underlying conditions. He passed away tonight, the 29th of December.


----------



## Ingélou

Hospitals in the south and east of the UK are becoming overwhelmed with covid patients, worse than in April, and are running out of oxygen in some cases. Non-covid treatment, including for cancer patients, is being suspended at some of the hospitals. Medical staff are falling ill with covid too. 
Update: Essex has declared a Major Incident over its health provision & requested government help. 

The sooner NHS staff can be vaccinated, and then the wider population, the better.

PS. The Oxford vaccine has just been approved and should start being rolled out next week. Hooray!


----------



## Jacck

COVID has killed my aunt, 75 years old. Though she had had a breast cancer for over 5 years with metastases in liver and bone and had likely only months to live even without the COVID. So COVID only fastened her death. Funerals are only for 15 people allowed, so I will not be going (she had 4 children and large family)


----------



## joen_cph

My condolences. These are tough times. We had non-covid severe illness and death in close family earlier in the year, and experienced the restrictions too in several ways.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> COVID has killed my aunt, 75 years old. Though she had had a breast cancer for over 5 years with metastases in liver and bone and had likely only months to live even without the COVID. So COVID only fastened her death. Funerals are only for 15 people allowed, so I will not be going (she had 4 children and large family)


My condolences, too, Jacck.
If I may share something on a personal level with you, my wife is in remission from breast cancer following an operation to remove the tumour and a good number of radiotherapy sessions. The prognosis is looking good but she is of course an at-risk case as her immune system is weakened at the moment. We are being extremely prudent regarding the Covid-19.
I wish you "_courage_", as they in French.


----------



## NoCoPilot

COVID-19 is an opportunistic infection -- it'll take advantage of whatever health deficits it can find.

Or behavioral deficits.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> I was, Mike. Sock puppeting a new name doesn't change who you really are.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sock_puppet_account


No - my username is Ekim. It is clear why you are using Mike, even though you pretend innocence. Like I said, the moderators - as specifically communicated to me - take seriously the purposeful using of a different name as a form of trolling. Proceed with caution.


----------



## Ingélou

Oh dear - now Buckinghamshire has declared a Major Incident as well as Essex, our Yorkshire area has gone into Tier 3, and my sister in Somerset is going into Tier 4. The Prime Minister is going to broadcast again tonight. 

So dismaying - not that it'll make much practical difference to our life, but worrying about what's happening to our society, and about whether non-covid medical appointments will be affected, certainly does take the shine off it.


----------



## Open Book

Ingélou said:


> Hospitals in the south and east of the UK are becoming overwhelmed with covid patients, worse than in April, and are running out of oxygen in some cases. Non-covid treatment, including for cancer patients, is being suspended at some of the hospitals. Medical staff are falling ill with covid too.
> Update: Essex has declared a Major Incident over its health provision & requested government help.
> 
> The sooner NHS staff can be vaccinated, and then the wider population, the better.
> 
> PS. The Oxford vaccine has just been approved and should start being rolled out next week. Hooray!


I don't understand discontinuing cancer treatments. Hopefully not for long. Hospital conditions must be bad for them to do that.

Here in my state "elective" surgeries have just been discontinued, though it's up to the doctor to decide what is elective. Our situation may not be quite as bad as yours yet.


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## NoCoPilot

Okay, your user name is ekiM. Mine is NoCoPilot. Do not ever call me NoCo again.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Open Book said:


> I don't understand discontinuing cancer treatments. Hopefully not for long. Hospital conditions must be bad for them to do that.


I read yesterday that a hospital somewhere (doesn't matter where) has started housing patients in the gift shop and chapel because they're out of patient rooms. That's what happens when COVID deniers hold get-togethers to create herd immunity.


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> So . . . last week a high school choir teacher died. She was healthy, early 50s, and a great singer.
> 
> After leading her church choir on Sunday she felt exhausted. She tested positive on Monday, and passed away from a blood clot (one of COVID-19s random symptoms) on Tuesday.
> 
> No underlying conditions.
> 
> https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/...B073FiDSWmXKt8Gqc4IDsH0q9oaBMWzz-cNlDv5bkp5ow





NoCoPilot said:


> I read yesterday that a hospital somewhere (doesn't matter where) has started housing patients in the gift shop and chapel because they're out of patient rooms. That's what happens when COVID deniers hold get-togethers to create herd immunity.


That is awful. The hospital is Martin Luther King Jr. Community Hospital in Los Angeles.

Out here, a mere 53 miles away, Los Robles Hospital has converted the parking garage into an additional ward in anticipation of the likely surge from Christmas get-togethers.


----------



## Guest

Ingélou said:


> Oh dear - now Buckinghamshire has declared a Major Incident as well as Essex, our Yorkshire area has gone into Tier 3, and my sister in Somerset is going into Tier 4. The Prime Minister is going to broadcast again tonight.
> 
> So dismaying - not that it'll make much practical difference to our life, but worrying about what's happening to our society, and about whether non-covid medical appointments will be affected, certainly does take the shine off it.


Somewhat reminiscent of WW2, then. My concern has long been what's happening to the society as this will remain after the disease has been mitigated (but not eradicated) by vaccination. It just simply cannot be an either/or scenario. There have been past episodes of illness in my country (eg. gastrointestinal disease) where hospitals have become overwhelmed, with patients in the corridors. As my son in OH&S (the one with the history of serious illness) always says, "it's about risk-management and looking at worst case scenarios for future planning".

From the "Spiked Online" article I posted earlier, it appears many people are dying from cancers and TB and other virulent diseases who would otherwise have been treated. That's my point; disease won't go away and neither will Covid-19, cancer, TB or other life-threatening cases of influenza. It's all a balancing act; some people are having to die of other diseases because hospitals cannot cope with the rising numbers of Covid-19. Ergo, nothing is going to stop people dying; either of Coronavirus or anything else. (Of course, mosquitoes have been responsible for more deaths in human history than any other source - including wars. I heard that recently in an online discussion.)

More than 2 decades ago our family endured the most hideous influenza; my children were small (two of them below 5) and we were in all sorts of trouble. Furious temperatures, shooting pains in the head, chronic aches, earache and pains in the limbs. It was a war zone. A month later I was reporting to hospital A&E for continuing symptoms because I'd become fearful it was something else like Leukemia. The 40 year old butcher's wife in the town died of it, quite suddenly. They couldn't get her temperature down.

The premise for the Australian government effectively shutting down our society and economy 10 months ago was deaths in the nursing home cohort. This was clearly absurd; now that the disease has spread it's looking like that was a hysterical over-reaction. Meanwhile, the nursing home cohort seems to be in the clear now (but not as far as Dementia and other poor-quality-of-life conditions). As for the 'undeveloped' world we don't hear anything much at all. They've endured, in the past, dreadful pandemics.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Christabel said:


> It's all a balancing act; some people are having to die of other diseases because hospitals cannot cope with the rising numbers of Covid-19. Ergo, nothing is going to stop people dying; either of Coronavirus or anything else. e conditions). As for the 'undeveloped' world we don't hear anything much at all. They've endured, in the past, dreadful pandemics.


CORRECTION: Cancer and trauma patients wouldn't be dying if COVID deniers weren't hogging all the ICUs.


----------



## Strange Magic

> Christabel: " As my son in OH&S (the one with the history of serious illness) always says, "it's about risk-management and looking at worst case scenarios for future planning".


It's what I always say, "Listen to the epidemiologists, virologists, vaccinologists, and public health experts--they are experts at risk-management and looking at worst-case scenarios involving large populations and highly-infectious agents. Beware those quoting members of the family, things they heard or saw on The Tube, fuzzy memories of yesteryear , or counselling that everybody is going to die eventually of something so just sit quietly and let Nature Take Its Course." That's what I always say.


----------



## Ingélou

Christabel said:


> Somewhat reminiscent of WW2, then.


Um - not really. 

I think really this pandemic has to be faced for what it *is* and how it seems to be developing, rather than looking to past situations.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Strange Magic said:


> It's what I always say, "Listen to the epidemiologists, virologists, vaccinologists, and public health experts--they are experts at risk-management and looking at worst-case scenarios involving large populations and highly-infectious agents. Beware those quoting members of the family, things they heard or saw on The Tube, fuzzy memories of yesteryear , or counselling that everybody is going to die eventually of something so just sit quietly and let Nature Take Its Course." That's what I always say.


It's true. You DO always say that!

Today is the first time it's been appropriate.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Damm. 'Mary Ann' from Gilligan's Island just died of COVID.


----------



## Bulldog

NoCoPilot said:


> Damm. 'Mary Ann' from Gilligan's Island just died of COVID.


That is sad news. I always thought of her as the perfect girl next-door.


----------



## Guest

82. Far too young. Note the chart below says "cases" and not "deaths".


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel's chart and graphics probably mean something.


----------



## Chilham

Strange Magic said:


> Christabel's chart and graphics probably mean something.


Probably some inconvenient truths.


----------



## Taplow

Strange Magic said:


> Christabel's chart and graphics probably mean something.


The entire population of the states of Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria (Australia's three most populous states) would have to be infected with COVID-19 for it to be equivalent to the number of people infected in the US. The populations of Western Australia, plus Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and Tasmania would have to be infected to approach the number of infected in India, etc. The graphic of course provides no indication of time, i.e. when these numbers were relevant. And it does not account for the relative size of the population of the indicated country. But then I'm guessing this graphic was supplied for Australians to understand in their terms the severity of the situation in other parts of the globe.


----------



## Strange Magic

Taplow, thanks for the explanation (I think)! Very clear now, he said, (without conviction.) Maybe Christabel will give it a try, and further explain its significance.


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> ... As for the 'undeveloped' world we don't hear anything much at all. They've endured, in the past, dreadful pandemics.


Because we don't hear anything much at all from the 'undeveloped' world, they must be enduring? What does 'enduring' mean?


----------



## NoCoPilot

As somebody (Strange Magic?) pointed out, “not hearing” is not the same as there not being COVID there. A lot of it could be lack of proper reporting, proper documentation, free and open reporting.


----------



## Strange Magic

DaveM said:


> Because we don't hear anything much at all from the 'undeveloped' world, they must be enduring? What does 'enduring' mean?


It may be that praised Roman stoicism that so marks the denizens of the third world. Stiff upper lip. Suffer in silence. Tea?


----------



## pianozach

Christabel said:


> Somewhat reminiscent of WW2, then. My concern has long been what's happening to the society as this will remain after the disease has been mitigated (but not eradicated) by vaccination. It just simply cannot be an either/or scenario. There have been past episodes of illness in my country (eg. gastrointestinal disease) where hospitals have become overwhelmed, with patients in the corridors. As my son in OH&S (the one with the history of serious illness) always says, "it's about risk-management and looking at worst case scenarios for future planning".
> 
> From the "Spiked Online" article I posted earlier, it appears many people are dying from cancers and TB and other virulent diseases who would otherwise have been treated. That's my point; disease won't go away and neither will Covid-19, cancer, TB or other life-threatening cases of influenza. It's all a balancing act; some people are having to die of other diseases because hospitals cannot cope with the rising numbers of Covid-19. Ergo, nothing is going to stop people dying; either of Coronavirus or anything else. (Of course, mosquitoes have been responsible for more deaths in human history than any other source - including wars. I heard that recently in an online discussion.)
> 
> More than 2 decades ago our family endured the most hideous influenza; my children were small (two of them below 5) and we were in all sorts of trouble. Furious temperatures, shooting pains in the head, chronic aches, earache and pains in the limbs. It was a war zone. A month later I was reporting to hospital A&E for continuing symptoms because I'd become fearful it was something else like Leukemia. The 40 year old butcher's wife in the town died of it, quite suddenly. They couldn't get her temperature down.
> 
> The premise for the Australian government effectively shutting down our society and economy 10 months ago was deaths in the nursing home cohort. This was clearly absurd; now that the disease has spread it's looking like that was a hysterical over-reaction. Meanwhile, the nursing home cohort seems to be in the clear now (but not as far as Dementia and other poor-quality-of-life conditions). As for the 'undeveloped' world we don't hear anything much at all. They've endured, in the past, dreadful pandemics.


A Facebook friend of mine just lost a friend. She'd suffered a stroke, and the hospital had no room because COVID. She was, instead, transferred to a larger hospital much further away.

She died en route.


----------



## DaveM

Strange Magic said:


> It may be that praised Roman stoicism that so marks the denizens of the third world. Stiff upper lip. Suffer in silence. Tea?


Or it may mean people dying at rates higher than the 'developed' parts of the world due to little or no education about the disease, little or no help from the government and a captive media that can't or won't report atrocities.


----------



## Open Book

Or it may mean that life is so much harder in the underdeveloped world that the virus barely makes a dent. In people's consciousness.


----------



## Strange Magic

All the above explanations make sense. Answer: more stoicism.


----------



## mikeh375

A heads up for everyone in the UK.

https://conversation.which.co.uk/scams/scam-nhs-covid-vaccine-text-message/?utm_content=small-email-component&utm_medium=Email%E2%80%8B&utm_source=ExactTarget%E2%80%8B&utm_campaign=4037470-C_WS_EM_311220


----------



## NoCoPilot

^^^^ That's despicable.


----------



## NoCoPilot

The UK variant of the coronavirus, not any more deadly but a lot more transmissible, has been detected in Florida, Colorado and California. Most of these folks haven't traveled to Great Britain. That means the variant is likely everywhere.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/01/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

Expect a major spike in cases before the vaccine gets into everybody's arms. Mask up, people.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> The UK variant of the coronavirus, not any more deadly but a lot more transmissible, has been detected in Florida, Colorado and California. Most of these folks haven't traveled to Great Britain. That means the variant is likely everywhere.
> https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/01/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
> 
> Expect a major spike in cases before the vaccine gets into everybody's arms. Mask up, people.


We seem to already be in a major spike in both number of cases AND number of deaths. The US is averaging around 3,750 deaths per day (roughly 3,800+ yesterday, 3,800 the day before, 3,700+ the day before that).

Also in the US our "target" number of vaccinations was not reached. In fact, we didn't even get close. It turns out the Federal government didn't really have a plan for this either, and instead criticized the individual states for dropping the ball. And it really doesn't matter who's at fault, the important information is that our delivery system neither delivers nor is it a system.

When you leave a national initiative to be handled by 50 states (and a few territories and districts), you're going to have a mishmosh of hastily assembled plans of varying success.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Things will improve exponentially in three weeks.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> Things will improve exponentially in three weeks.


I hope you're being sarcastic.

It's far more likely that we'll be seeing a spike on top of the current spike as a result of Christmas and NYE get-togethers.


----------



## joen_cph

He probably means that political decision-making and -signalling will be better.


----------



## Strange Magic

joen_cph said:


> He probably means that political decision-making and -signalling will be better.


Perfectly innocent reference to this Blow Monkeys classic:*Celebrate: The Day After You*....


----------



## TxllxT

https://www.timesofisrael.com/240-israelis-diagnosed-after-vaccination-underscore-need-for-continued-vigilance/
240 Israelis contracted Covid 19 after having been vaccinated. After the 1st Pfizer vaccination one should first be vigilant until the 2nd vaccination and then one still has to wait about ten days...


----------



## Ingélou

I'm hoping that the decision in the UK to concentrate on first doses will be the right one - I can see where they're coming from, though, and hope the vaccination programme can be successfully rolled out soonest.


----------



## Strange Magic

TxllxT said:


> https://www.timesofisrael.com/240-israelis-diagnosed-after-vaccination-underscore-need-for-continued-vigilance/
> 240 Israelis contracted Covid 19 after having been vaccinated. After the 1st Pfizer vaccination one should first be vigilant until the 2nd vaccination and then one still has to wait about ten days...


A classic example of the need to read and to tell an entire story. The terse "240 Israelis contracted Covid 19 after having been vaccinated" statement, if absorbed just by itself, suggests a cause-and-effect relationship between the vaccination and the infection that is not what the story actually tells us.


----------



## Luchesi

to at least 15 characters.


----------



## pianozach

Ingélou said:


> I'm hoping that the decision in the UK to concentrate on first doses will be the right one - I can see where they're coming from, though, and hope the vaccination programme can be successfully rolled out soonest.


Um, yeah, they're just making it up as they go along.


----------



## geralmar




----------



## mikeh375

I've just posted this in the gripe for today thread, it probably belongs here though.

My gripe...
Covid deniers and anti-vaxxers.
In the UK, hospitals are now at breaking point and on the verge of having to refuse patients. A demonstration outside a hospital in London by deluded fools who deny the existence of CV19 had ICU nurses in tears.

https://www.ladbible.com/news/uk-mas...pital-20210102

This terrible death inducing situation we find ourselves in could be avoided if people realised that real life does not reverberate concordantly in alternative and insidious agenda driven echo chambers online. It's time people started facing up to their moral and civic responsibilities.

If you are a cv19 denier or anti-vaxxer then shame on you.

_"Covid rule-breakers 'have blood on their hands" says intensive care doctor._

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-rule-breakers-hugh-montgomery-whittington-b596038.html

Amen to that.

This gripe is far from over.


----------



## TxllxT

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/south-african-coronavirus-mutation-may-beat-jabs-lrjtnhrgt

Worries about a corona mutant from South Africa, that might defy the present vaccinations....


----------



## Strange Magic

mikeh375, some of the deniers can be "forgiven' in that they literally haven't a clue and like it that way. The rest have, in addition to blood on their hands, *ideology* in their brains. Hearts? Not so sure that organ is present.


----------



## mikeh375

TxllxT said:


> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/south-african-coronavirus-mutation-may-beat-jabs-lrjtnhrgt
> 
> Worries about a corona mutant from South Africa, that might defy the present vaccinations....


Worrying indeed. 'Vaccine escape' is a real threat and all the more reason for anti-vaxxers to get on board, that is, if perhaps inadvertently killing strangers and even loved ones through cause and effect isn't enough incentive to do so. One theory as to the more transmissible strain is that a patient who caught cv19 had a such a weakened immune system that the body became a breeding ground for the virus, which then escaped.
Some are hopeful that the current vaccines can be easily tweaked to meet mutations, here's hoping.


----------



## mikeh375

...UK wide lockdown....???????

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55527195

I for one do hope so.


----------



## pianozach

Strange Magic said:


> mikeh375, some of the deniers can be "forgiven' in that *they literally haven't a clue and like it that way.* The rest have, in addition to blood on their hands, *ideology* in their brains. Hearts? Not so sure that organ is present.


_" . . . they literally haven't a clue and like it that way . . . . "_

Ain't THAT the truth? Willful ignorance. Not just willfull . . . _spiteful_ ignorance. There's a whole bunch of folks that celebrate their ignorance, elevate it high on a pedestal and worship it.

I'm sorry, does this belong in the *Gripe of the Day* thread?


----------



## Ingélou

pianozach said:


> _" . . . they literally haven't a clue and like it that way . . . . "_
> 
> Ain't THAT the truth? Willful ignorance. Not just willfull . . . _spiteful_ ignorance. There's a whole bunch of folks that celebrate their ignorance, elevate it high on a pedestal and worship it.
> 
> I'm sorry, does this belong in the *Gripe of the Day* thread?


I'd say not. 
I don't own the thread, but I chose the title half-humorously for small time whinges.

This is too serious. Someone we know (we found out today) has caught covid despite not being out for six weeks - they can't account for it, unless somehow through the food delivery.

Sad, and scary.


----------



## pianozach

mikeh375 said:


> Worrying indeed. 'Vaccine escape' is a real threat and all the more reason for anti-vaxxers to get on board, that is, if perhaps inadvertently killing strangers and even loved ones through cause and effect isn't enough incentive to do so. One theory as to the more transmissible strain is that a patient who caught cv19 had a such a weakened immune system that the body became a breeding ground for the virus, which then escaped.
> Some are hopeful that the current vaccines can be easily tweaked to meet mutations, here's hoping.


The 'regular' flu mutates all the time as well, although it's mostly seasonal.

Experts 'guess' at how it will look next year, and plan for it. They're probably about 75% accurate or better when designing or choosing which version of a flu vaccine they will produce for the coming year. Sometimes there are two mutated flus in a single year.

The problem that I see coming is that the *SARS-CoV-2* (the specific coronavirus that causes *COVID-19*) has only been around for about a year, and there are already three to seven different strains of it, depending on your source of information.

That it mutates surprises not one scientist. Genetic mutations are a natural, everyday phenomenon. They can occur every time genetic material is copied.

One team of researchers proposed that SARS-CoV-2 had picked up specific mutation patterns in distinct geographical regions.

The researchers, from the *University of Maryland* in Baltimore and Italian biotech company *Ulisse Biomed* in Trieste, analyzed *eight* recurrent mutations in 220 COVID-19 patient samples.

They found three of these exclusively in European samples and another three exclusively in samples from North America.

However, a team at the Center for Virus Research at the University of Glasgow in the U.K. disagreed with this finding, publishing their claim that *"Until there is some evidence of a change in virus biology, we cannot say that there are new strains of the virus. It's important to appreciate that mutations are a normal byproduct of virus replication and that most mutations we observe won't have any impact on virus biology or function."*

Yet another researcher, *Prof. Martin Hibberd*, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, seems to have an opinion that is somewhere in the middle of these: *"Several groups around the world have identified a specific mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, and they are concerned that this mutation might alter this type of binding, but we cannot be sure it does that at the moment. More likely, this mutation will likely affect the virus binding to its receptor . . . , which might affect transmissibility."*

I'll say it again - *this virus, and the disease, are so new that there is an awful lot we do NOT know about it.*


----------



## Strange Magic

pianozach, all those facts, all those links to experts. Don't you realize that opinions count for far more than mere facts when it comes to actual reality?

I have it on the best authority that the moon indeed is made of green cheese.


----------



## Open Book

It isn't deniers and anti-vaxxers who are the only cause, or even the main cause, of the spike in cases all over. It's ordinary people who believe in the virus, kinda sorta, but fall short in fighting it.

Some can't keep up the stringent anti-social requirements. So they cheat. They gather with their friends or extended families. Strangers can spread the virus, they are the enemy. It's harder to believe you can get the virus from a friend or relative, and they feel a false sense of security with them.

Others can't consistently wear masks properly. Or measure 6 feet of distance. Anybody watching the audiences in NFL football stadiums can see these people.

Others do things that are legal, not banned, but non-advisable, like indoor restaurant dining. That has been suspected to be a major spreader of the virus, and why should anyone be surprised? There are mixed messages from the government, which wants to support businesses, yet some business practices are going to spread the virus.

Also, I'm sure people who never washed their hands before, still don't. They never will. They are a strange breed.


----------



## NoCoPilot

But those people ARE the COVID deniers. They may not deny it exists, but they deny it is serious and they deny it is imminently transmissible.

I'm starting to think the human race isn't smart enough to survive long-term, with the number of self-caused disasters we've made and our feeble responses to them. Easter Island writ big, except what we leave behind will be skyscrapers and dams instead of statues.


Open Book said:


> There are mixed messages from the government


What I'd GIVE if the message was "mixed."


----------



## mikeh375

NoCoPilot said:


> ....What I'd GIVE if the message was "mixed."


Yep agree, the message at present is terrifyingly clear. 
Unfortunately there's also a mixed message there to be personally interpreted if you are looking for one to suit your world view. As I see it, Open Book makes good and true points but so does NoCoPilot. A mixed view between both it would seem, but somehow clear as day in this instance.

*WANTED* - sentient beings with brains and empathy to save the world. Deniers and anti-vaxxers needn't apply.


----------



## Ingélou

BBC - Five Ways of getting us through the new lockdown in the UK - 
Dr Radha Modgil from BBC Radio 1's Life Hacks






*Control* - what you can, and dismiss from your mind what you can't
*Care* - look after yourself - eat sensibly, sleep, wash, exercise
*Continuity* - have set routines of getting up, eating, going to bed, to keep you grounded.
*Creativity* - hobbies and crafts to distract you from the worry.
*Compassion* - show kindness to yourself and others.


----------



## NoCoPilot

mikeh375 said:


> *WANTED* - sentient beings with brains and empathy to save the world. Deniers and anti-vaxxers needn't apply.


Is it okay if they swim in the sea?


----------



## mikeh375

....and this for all you covidiot buffoons. To those who trust in God to save you, or think the virus is a conspiracy or political (did I really type that), pay special attention.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...as-fake-crisis-then-he-contracted-it-n1209246

https://au.news.yahoo.com/covid-deniers-confronting-warning-from-hospital-bed-080039085.html


----------



## NoCoPilot

Latest research hints that getting COVID, and surviving it, may lead to an increased incidence of Alzheimer's later in life.

Flu doesn't do that.


----------



## Jacck

I will get my shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine on Friday. It is the one requiring the deep freeze (-70°C) and two doses. So Bill Gates finally gets me with his microchips.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Anybody here have any experience with the COVID exposure tracking apps on your smartphone? Supposedly tells you if you've been in close proximity to anyone who's tested positive.

I assume it requires all parties to carry the app.

It was available natively in Washington State only with iOS 13.5 and above, but this morning I noticed there's an update (12.5) to provide this capability on my Ancient old iPhone 6.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Jacck said:


> I will get my shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine on Friday. It is the one requiring the deep freeze (-70°C) and two doses. So Bill Gates finally gets me with his microchips.


I get my second on Friday 3pm


----------



## elgar's ghost

There are calls in the UK for the government to issue daily vaccination figures. I agree - as we have all put up with the relentless misery of seeing daily figures for new cases and deaths for the last ten months it would soften the blow a little bit to see numerical confirmation that the vaccination campaign is gathering pace, however long it takes.

Previous lockdowns could only really muzzle the dog while vaccines were being developed - the latest lockdown combined with newly-available vaccines will hopefully provide the necessary means to not just muzzle the dog but also take its teeth out at last.


----------



## joen_cph

Jacck said:


> I will get my shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine on Friday. It is the one requiring the deep freeze (-70°C) and two doses. So Bill Gates finally gets me with his microchips.


Congratulations! But how did you 'qualify'? In my country, health staff and seniors at retirement homes are first, and that process is going OK - but people like me will probably have to wait 3-5 months ... authorities are planning for 100,000 per day, when vaccines are available, though, for our population of 5.8 mio ...


----------



## Jacck

joen_cph said:


> Congratulations! But how did you 'qualify'? In my country, health staff and seniors at retirement homes are first, and that process is going OK - but people like me will probably have to wait 3-5 months ... authorities are planning for 100,000 per day, when vaccines are available, though, for our population of 5.8 mio ...


I am a health staff at the second biggest hospital in my country. Here it is also health staff and those over 80 first. They estimate that healthy young people wont get the shot before May or so.


----------



## mikeh375

Jacck said:


> I am a health staff at the second biggest hospital in my country. Here it is also health staff and those over 80 first. They estimate that healthy young people wont get the shot before May or so.


respect Jacck...


----------



## Guest

NoCoPilot said:


> Anybody here have any experience with the COVID exposure tracking apps on your smartphone? Supposedly tells you if you've been in close proximity to anyone who's tested positive.
> 
> I assume it requires all parties to carry the app.
> 
> It was available natively in Washington State only with iOS 13.5 and above, but this morning I noticed there's an update (12.5) to provide this capability on my Ancient old iPhone 6.


I use a similar app here in France (it requires Bluetooth connection). I have had no alerts as yet but of course the app's effectiveness depends on more and more people signing up for it.


----------



## pianozach

Here in SoCal, Los Angeles County is imposing a mandatory 10-day quarantine on anyone who travels into the area from outside the Southern California region.

Naturally, that is patently unenforceable, but I suppose it will help if *some* people follow the guideline.

This was a predictable move, given that ERs and ICUs are at capacity. Hospitals had already been diverting ambulances to other hospitals, but now there advising EMS crews to not bother bringing in patients that have a small chance of surviving, AND to conserve oxygen out in the field (there's now a shortage). Ambulances are waiting for hours - up to eight, in some cases - to admit new patients at overwhelmed hospitals (people have actually died inside the ambulances while waiting to be admitted in the ER). The number of coronavirus patients in intensive care units has more than quadrupled since the beginning of November.

In less than a week, 1,000 people have died in the county


----------



## Ingélou

Huge numbers today in the UK - over 30,000 people in hospital with covid, and the latest daily toll of deaths is over 1000.


----------



## mikeh375

Folks, I had an idea so I'll just put it out there.

We are on a diet (sigh) but still have a big tin of unopened Quality Street (gulp) that was getting threatening looks from me last night. I then had the thought that when eventually we get the vaccine, we should take it along and leave it with the nurses and staff (if it doesn't survive the next few days, I'll buy another tin).

I then thought that if I mentioned this idea online, then perhaps it'll be digitally passed on to a lot of people who may do something similar. If such gestures can provide even a little appreciative succour for the heart-break suffered by health staff over the recklessness shown by irresponsible fools, then it's worth mentioning.

It doesn't take long to pass the idea on and perhaps it'll become a thing. I'm not on Twitter or Hatebook, but if you are, why not suggest doing this, there can't surely be any harm in it. I don't care if you claim the idea as your own, it's gotta be worth a shot, right?


----------



## Malx

mikeh375 said:


> Folks, I had an idea so I'll just put it out there.
> 
> We are on a diet (sigh) but still have a big tin of unopened Quality Street (gulp) that was getting threatening looks from me last night. I then had the thought that when eventually we get the vaccine, we should take it along and leave it with the nurses and staff (if it doesn't survive the next few days, I'll buy another tin).
> 
> I then thought that if I mentioned this idea online, then perhaps it'll be digitally passed on to a lot of people who may do something similar. If such gestures can provide even a little appreciative succour for the heart-break suffered by health staff over the recklessness shown by irresponsible fools, then it's worth mentioning.
> 
> It doesn't take long to pass the idea on and perhaps it'll become a thing. I'm not on Twitter or Hatebook, but if you are, why not suggest doing this, there can't surely be any harm in it. I don't care if you claim the idea as your own, it's gotta be worth a shot, right?


Nice sentiment Mike but in the current climate part of me is inclined to suggest energy bars rather than Quality Street - I fear the vast majority are getting close to running on empty.


----------



## Flamme

I bet ''tons'' of new viruses will appear ''out of the blue'' in incoming years...Nothing will ever be the same again.


----------



## mikeh375

Malx said:


> Nice sentiment Mike but in the current climate part of me is inclined to suggest energy bars rather than Quality Street - I fear the vast majority are getting close to running on empty.


point taken Malx and too true. Anything at all, simply as a gesture would I'm sure have an effect.


----------



## Flamme

https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/06...CAk_Wtx7kSOQVentQj2VwMWfH4#Echobox=1609956399


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/06...CAk_Wtx7kSOQVentQj2VwMWfH4#Echobox=1609956399


I read yesterday that 60% want to get vaccinated. I guess many people are simply unsure and it depends how you ask the questions in the polls. Many people (even family) ask me what I think about the vaccination and if it is safe etc. And yes, Czechs are generally pretty sceptical and pessimistic and distrust the government. And a large part is also the Russian propaganda and disinformation. It is worse in Eastern Europe than in the West because the Russians still have many sleeper agents from the communist era in those countries. Many former STB (secret communist police) agents lost their power after the revolution, and they still work for the Russians. So these old bitter pensioners get recruited as Russian trolls and flood the social media with Russian disinformation crap.

Russia trolls 'spreading vaccination misinformation' to create discord
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45294192


----------



## Flamme

Tbh I was surprised it was not Poles lol


----------



## KenOC

Some good news:



> Moderna's CEO said the company's new COVID-19 vaccine may prevent infection for years…
> 
> The CEO also said Moderna is close to proving its vaccine is effective against other variants of the coronavirus, Reuters reports…
> 
> In November, Moderna announced its vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 was 94.1% and that its vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 was 100%.


----------



## NoCoPilot

There's a third vaccine nearing approval which is only a single dose.


----------



## KenOC

NoCoPilot said:


> There's a third vaccine nearing approval which is only a single dose.


Do you have the name of that one-jab vaccine? I believe the "big-3" in the US - AstroZeneca, Pfizer, and Moderna - are all two-jab vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna have been approved by the FDA, and approval for AstroZeneca is expected this month or next.

Two additional vaccines, Janssen and Novavax, are in or are about to enter phase III trials. I've seen very little about them.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Johnson & Johnson
https://www.kare11.com/article/news...ccine/89-f7a45ed5-0e3d-45ca-8a07-3b5542feef0c


----------



## DaveM

Flamme said:


> I bet ''tons'' of new viruses will appear ''out of the blue'' in incoming years...Nothing will ever be the same again.


Why 'tons' of new viruses in incoming years out of the blue? I don't know what that means.


----------



## Ich muss Caligari werden

DaveM said:


> Why 'tons' of new viruses in incoming years out of the blue? I don't know what that means.


I believe he means variants and mutations which will tax our defensive abilities to the max. I agree with Flamme; we're in trouble deep.


----------



## KenOC

NoCoPilot said:


> Johnson & Johnson
> https://www.kare11.com/article/news...ccine/89-f7a45ed5-0e3d-45ca-8a07-3b5542feef0c


Thanks, that's probably the "Janssen" vaccine. Janssen is a Belgian pharma company owned by Johnson & Johnson.


----------



## Ich muss Caligari werden

We have now suffered over half the deaths in the U.S. with Covid that we experienced during the Spanish Flu Pandemic. Any bets on Covid handily surpassing it? (gruesomely impressive for a 'fake flu', which is what most of my neighbors consider it).


----------



## NoCoPilot

Ich muss Caligari werden said:


> We have now suffered over half the deaths with Covid that we experienced during the Spanish Flu Pandemic. Any bets on Covid handily surpassing it? (fairly impressive for a 'fake flu', which is what most of my neighbors consider it).


You sure about that? Spanish Flu killed 50-100 million people. So far as I know COVID is still under 2 million fatalities worldwide. There are 88.7 million CASES but not that many deaths.


----------



## Ich muss Caligari werden

NoCoPilot said:


> You sure about that? Spanish Flu killed 50-100 million people. So far as I know COVID is still under 2 million fatalities worldwide. There are 88.7 million CASES but not that many deaths.


I am, sadly, that's in U.S. I ought to have specificed: 675,000 Spanish Flu Deaths; last I checked for Covid, the challenging champ of death, 361,000.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Okay, your figures check out for U.S. But in a global pandemic on a global scale I think it makes sense to look at global figures.


----------



## DaveM

Ich muss Caligari werden said:


> I believe he means variants and mutations which will tax our defensive abilities to the max. I agree with Flamme; we're in trouble deep.


I don't know why we would be in any more trouble than we were before the pandemic. In fact, the pandemic just may have resulted in our being safer on a world-wide basis given the relatively fast development of mRNA vaccine technology which can be applied to future viruses.


----------



## Ich muss Caligari werden

DaveM said:


> I don't know why we would be in any more trouble than we were before the pandemic. In fact, the pandemic just may have resulted in our being safer on a world-wide basis given the relatively fast development of mRNA vaccine technology which can be applied to future viruses.


That's a best case scenario you've got there, *Dave*. And I certainly hope it's our future! My belief that we are in trouble relates to these concerns: we are in uncharted waters; we won't know for certain about the effectiveness of the vaccines until they're put broadly to the test (I'm getting my vaccine, but must acknowledge that the medical and scientific complexities involved are enormous and not so well understood); our leaders, many of them, are witless; the quality and capacity of our medical infrastructure has been exaggerated; and many of our populace think they know better than scientists. Optimism seems like a luxury under the circumstances. The best predictor of the future is - generally - past performance - we aren't doing very well now, and though plainly we can and must improve, our situation is not likely to ameliorate any time soon. It's likely Covid will be a more talented grim reaper than was Spanish Flu. Epidemiologists have warned us for decades of what we're now experiencing - simply put, as if Covid weren't enough of a threat, we're in trouble, mostly, because human nature is what it is.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Farmers and ranchers are often warned against 'monoculture' which is the raising a single crop or single species in high density. Makes it too easy for a pathogen to get in and wipe out your whole farm.

I don't think I need to point out the obvious.


----------



## Pyotr

The Spanish Flu mostly killed young adults. In 1918–1919, 99% of Spanish Flu deaths occurred in people under 65(albeit there were less people over 65 in those days), and nearly half of deaths were in young adults 20 to 40 years old.


----------



## ToneDeaf&Senile

I checked my State's posted vaccine plan. Looks like I'll be included in Phase 1-C, due to age and health issues. Phase 1-A is still ongoing. Schedules for Phase 1-B and 1-C will tentatively be made known no-earlier-than the middle of the month (Jan 2021). I, for one, am more than ready for mine, realizing that even afterward I'll need to continue practiciung all safeguards for the forseeable future. But hey, its a step, hopefully in the right direction.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> You sure about that? Spanish Flu killed 50-100 million people. So far as I know COVID is still under 2 million fatalities worldwide. There are 88.7 million CASES but not that many deaths.


A hundred years ago we didn't have the technology to really save people that had severe cases. Instead, they just died.


----------



## haydnguy

The investment is often determined by the profit motive during normal times and if it doesn't look like there will be enough profit, the investment won't be done.

BTW, earlier in this thread I posted that things seemed to be getting better. It's spiked again. Hospitals are packed including ICU's.


----------



## Flamme

Ich muss Caligari werden said:


> I believe he means variants and mutations which will tax our defensive abilities to the max. I agree with Flamme; we're in trouble deep.


I dont think they would be even variations of covid and sars but compltely new viruses altogether.


----------



## Ich muss Caligari werden

Medical expert on MSNBC is predicting *one million U.S. Covid deaths* by May 1st. https://www.msnbc.com/the-sunday-sh...on-for-first-9-days-of-2021-alone-99230789765


----------



## mikeh375

Another bit of information for the deniers, the anti-vaxxers and those who think cv19 is just a flu bug....


----------



## Ich muss Caligari werden

mikeh375 said:


> Another bit of information for the deniers, the anti-vaxxers and those who think cv19 is just a flu bug....


My neighbor, a rabid Trump supporter ("he shows good judgment"; "he kept his promises," etc.) was complaining to me about having to wear a mask and that the flu is not as bad as _Democrats _say. "I drove past the hospital," she says, "and there were hardly any cars at all parked there, it looked empty." Which hospital is that?, I asked her. "The one right close to us, on Olive, I don't know the name..." I had to tell her that that hospital is new, isn't finished and hasn't opened yet!


----------



## mikeh375

Ich muss Caligari werden said:


> My neighbor, a rabid Trump supporter ("he shows good judgment"; "he kept his promises," etc.) was complaining to me about having to wear a mask and that the flu is not as bad as _Democrats _say. "I drove past the hospital," she says, "and there were hardly any cars at all parked there, it looked empty." Which hospital is that?, I asked her. "The one right close to us, on Olive, I don't know the name..." I had to tell her that that hospital is new, isn't finished and hasn't opened yet!


We have similar problems here in the UK.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55560714


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

I'm reading reports in places like New York City where they are throwing away vaccine doses because they will go to a hospital, vaccinate everybody on the list authorized to be vaccinated, have extra doses, and refuse to give them to anybody not on the authorized list because of the severe punitive actions (heavy fines) for giving it to people not yet approved for the vaccine. No room for best judgment here, and it is costing us. In Israel, I have read that, with the Pfizer vaccine that has the tricky storage requirements, when they crack open a vial, they vaccinate everybody that should, and if they have extra, they'll pull in whoever is around just so they don't have to waste any doses.

Good to see we are being smart about this.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I'm reading reports in places like New York City where they are throwing away vaccine doses because they will go to a hospital, vaccinate everybody on the list authorized to be vaccinated, have extra doses, and refuse to give them to anybody not on the authorized list because of the severe punitive actions (heavy fines) for giving it to people not yet approved for the vaccine. No room for best judgment here, and it is costing us. In Israel, I have read that, with the Pfizer vaccine that has the tricky storage requirements, when they crack open a vial, they vaccinate everybody that should, and if they have extra, they'll pull in whoever is around just so they don't have to waste any doses.
> 
> Good to see we are being smart about this.


Who wants to go to jail if they give the vaccine to the wrong person? Better to let it be thrown and let the governor of new york take the blame for it going bad.


----------



## pianozach

Johnnie Burgess said:


> Who wants to go to jail if they give the vaccine to the wrong person? Better to let it be thrown and let the governor of new york take the blame for it going bad.


I'll say it again:

*Instead of one national distribution program, and in the absence of Federal leadership, all 50 states are scrambling to cobble together 50 different distribution programs, with 50 different success rates.
*

I have read some articles telling of hospitals with leftover vaccines that choose to simply administer them to random people instead of letting them expire.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> I'll say it again:
> 
> *Instead of one national distribution program, and in the absence of Federal leadership, all 50 states are scrambling to cobble together 50 different distribution programs, with 50 different success rates.
> *
> 
> I have read some articles telling of hospitals with leftover vaccines that choose to simply administer them to random people instead of letting them expire.


Yes, in some states. But the hang-up in others is that you can receive pretty heavy fines if you administer to someone who is not in the the current phase scheduled for vaccinations. So if they end up with more doses thawed than they need (people not showing up to get the vaccine, or refusing the vaccine), then rather than risk those heavy fines, they are throwing them away.


----------



## Strange Magic

Gov. Cuomo acted quickly to loosen vaccine rules after the problem arose, as a NYTimes article shows. The situation in Florida, where essentially anyone over 65, from wherever, can attempt to get the vaccine, has been described as "a free-for-all". It would have been nice to have had a federal Master Plan to deal with a pandemic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/nyregion/new-york-vaccine-guidelines.html

"On Saturday, state health officials responded to the outcry over discarded vaccines by again abruptly loosening guidelines as coronavirus cases continued to rise.

Now, medical providers can administer the vaccine to any of their employees who interact with the public if there are extra doses in a vial and no one from "the priority population can come in before the doses expire," the new guidelines read. A pharmacy's "store clerks, cashiers, stock workers and delivery staff" could qualify, the guidelines said. California last week took a similar step.

This is the second time in two days that Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's administration has loosened the restrictions around who can get vaccinated in New York State. On Friday, the governor announced that medical providers could vaccinate a wider range of essential workers, including teachers, as well as New Yorkers 75 years and older starting as early as Monday. That same day, the governor also expanded the types of medical professionals that can administer vaccines to include licensed practical nurses, pharmacists, dentists and podiatrists."


----------



## Strange Magic

The situation in Florida:

"MIAMI - Linda Kleindienst Bruns registered for a coronavirus vaccine in late December, on the first day the health department in Tallahassee, Fla., opened for applications for people her age. Despite being 72, with her immune system suppressed by medication that keeps her breast cancer in remission, she spent days waiting to hear back about an appointment.

"It's so disorganized," she said. "I was hoping the system would be set up so there would be some sort of logic to it."

Phyllis Humphreys, 76, waited with her husband last week in a line of cars in Clermont, west of Orlando, that spilled onto Highway 27. They had scrambled into their car and driven 22 miles after receiving an automated text message saying vaccine doses were available. But by 9:43 a.m., the site had reached capacity and the Humphreys went home with no shots.

"We're talking about vaccinations," said Ms. Humphreys, a retired critical care nurse. "We are not talking about putting people in Desert Storm."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/us/coronavirus-vaccine-florida.html


----------



## Dorsetmike

I had my second jab last Friday, organisation here seems to be well in hand even to the extent of the local authority and police not taking any action over parking restriction violations outside the medical centre


----------



## CnC Bartok

Dorsetmike said:


> I had my second jab last Friday, organisation here seems to be well in hand even to the extent of the local authority and police not taking any action over parking restriction violations outside the medical centre


Congratulations! Excellent news.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

The mRNA vaccine is experimental . Long-term effects remain theoretical .


----------



## pianozach

Tikoo Tuba said:


> The mRNA vaccine is experimental . Long-term effects remain theoretical .


Um, yeah, well, yes, mRNA vaccines _*are*_ an entirely new type of vaccine. And never before have mRNA vaccines, such as the two-dose Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines that have now received emergency use authorization from the FDA, been approved for use in any disease.

But scientists have actually been working for decades on the development of an mRNA vaccine. First they had to modify mRNA so that it did not produce violent immune system reactions. THEN they had to learn how to encourage immune system cells to gobble up the mRNA as it passed by in the blood. And THEN THEY learned how to coax those cells to make large amounts of the critical piece of protein. Finally, they learned how to enclose the mRNA inside microscopically small capsules to protect it from being destroyed by chemicals in our blood.

When you offhandedly dismiss the mRNA vaccine as being _*"experimental"*_, it somehow ends up having a questionable connotation.

So, 30 years of painstaking research allowed several groups of scientists to bring mRNA vaccine technology to the threshold of actually working. And then COVID-19 hit us, and we needed a vaccine, and needed it fast. Within weeks of identifying the responsible virus, scientists in China had determined the structure of all of its genes, including the genes that make the spike protein, and published this information on the Internet.

It only took a few weeks to develop the vaccine and start testing it.

*Previously, no new vaccine had been developed in less than four years.
*
Astonishing, amazing, and scary. Initially, I was quite skeptical of a vaccine that had been seemingly "rushed" into the arms of the public - obviously, it takes years to develop vaccines.

Well, it USED to.

As for the "Long-term effects" . . . you do have a point. 30 years working on the concept of mRNA vaccines DOES mean that we haven't seen if there are effects 40 years down the road. We do know that smallpox can have long-term effects, and we've already seen some oddball longterm effects from contracting COVID-19.

But the real scientists are doing their best. The vaccine seems to be working out.


----------



## DaveM

Long term effects of the vaccine may be theoretical, but long term effects of Covid-19 are a reality. According to a just-released study in The Lancet, at 6 months 75% have chronic symptoms of which the most common are fatigue and muscle weakness. Also, can be sleep disorders and depression. Those who had more serious cases in hospital especially if they were on a ventilator have more serious chronic pulmonary problems that may be permanent.


----------



## Open Book

DaveM said:


> Long term effects of the vaccine may be theoretical, but long term effects of Covid-19 are a reality. According to a just-released study in The Lancet, 75% have chronic symptoms of which the most common are fatigue and muscle weakness. Also, can be sleep disorders and depression. Those who had more serious cases in hospital especially if they were on a ventilator have more serious chronic pulmonary problems that may be permanent.


Really, 75% of people who catch the virus have chronic symptoms afterward?

Even young people? Scores of professional athletes have caught the virus (NFL, NBA, tennis). Wouldn't we have heard by now if such a large percentage were suffering from persistent aftereffects such as these? Although my household has noticed that Cam Newton was playing better before he got sick with the virus.

Have you got a link from the Lancet or elsewhere?


----------



## joen_cph

Surveys now say that 75% of _hospitalized_ people have aftermaths several months after, of varying character.


----------



## TxllxT

Open Book said:


> Really, 75% of people who catch the virus have chronic symptoms afterward?
> 
> Even young people? Scores of professional athletes have caught the virus (NFL, NBA, tennis). Wouldn't we have heard by now if such a large percentage were suffering from persistent aftereffects such as these? Although my household has noticed that Cam Newton was playing better before he got sick with the virus.
> 
> Have you got a link from the Lancet or elsewhere?


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32656-8/fulltext


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

pianozach said:


> As for the "Long-term effects" . . . you do have a point. 30 years working on the concept of mRNA vaccines DOES mean that we haven't seen if there are effects 40 years down the road. We do know that smallpox can have long-term effects, and we've already seen some oddball longterm effects from contracting COVID-19.
> 
> But the real scientists are doing their best. The vaccine seems to be working out.


I read in the publication Nature 2018 the mRNA experiments had 36 human subjects participating . How are they ?


----------



## Open Book

TxllxT said:


> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32656-8/fulltext


I didn't see a statistic that 75% of the total in that study had at least one chronic problem. It did list the frequency and variety of problems people had.

But these were all people who were admitted to the hospital with the disease, meaning they had a severe case to begin with.

It's not accurate to say that 75% of _all_ people who are infected will suffer chronic problems.

The disease is bad enough, there's no point in making it look worse than it is. This just causes skeptics to fight back and distrust the science.


----------



## pianozach

Tikoo Tuba said:


> I read in the publication Nature 2018 the mRNA experiments had 36 human subjects participating . How are they ?


Beats me. You read the article. Did it not say? And a study in 2018 wouldn't be a COVID-19 vaccine, simply mRNA experiments.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

pianozach said:


> Beats me. You read the article. Did it not say? And a study in 2018 wouldn't be a COVID-19 vaccine, simply mRNA experiments.


mRNA experiments on humans are 2 yrs . Long-term effects are theoretical . Previous research was exclusive to small animals .
Theoretical long-term effects ? A.I. Zombie


----------



## NoCoPilot

Tikoo Tuba said:


> mRNA experiments on humans are 2 yrs . Long-term effects are theoretical . Previous research was exclusive to small animals .
> Theoretical long-term effects ?


We will become invisible and able to **** wine.


----------



## DaveM

Open Book said:


> I didn't see a statistic that 75% of the total in that study had at least one chronic problem. It did list the frequency and variety of problems people had.
> 
> But these were all people who were admitted to the hospital with the disease, meaning they had a severe case to begin with.
> 
> It's not accurate to say that 75% of _all_ people who are infected will suffer chronic problems.
> 
> The disease is bad enough, there's no point in making it look worse than it is. This just causes skeptics to fight back and distrust the science.


My original post was overly broad since the study is of previously hospitalized and not 'all' patients. (Sorry for the error.) The Lancet study Discussion says:

_ To our knowledge, this is the largest cohort study with the longest follow-up duration assessing the health consequences of adult patients discharged from hospital recovering from COVID-19. *We found that at 6 months after symptom onset, most patients endorsed at least one symptom, particularly fatigue or muscle weakness, sleep difficulties, and anxiety or depression. More severely ill patients had increased risk of pulmonary diffusion abnormality, fatigue or muscle weakness, and anxiety or depression.* The seropositivity and titres of the neutralising antibodies were significantly lower than at acute phase._

If you look in the Results part of the study, 'most patients' is 76%:

_ 76% of patients (1265 of 1655) reported at least one symptom at follow-up (table 2) and a higher percentage was observed in women..._

Edit: I have re-worded the opening of my post above.

Additional thought: I don't think it's a stretch to say that the more severe the symptoms in those who weren't hospitalized, the more likely they will have one or more the symptoms listed in the Lancet study for months after. It's very likely there will be a study along those lines in the not too distant future.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

NoCoPilot said:


> We will become invisible and able to **** wine.


Expect a separate reality . Choose . I chooze cheeze .


----------



## Roger Knox

A vital opinion piece today in the Globe and Mail by three members of Canada's COVID-19 Vaccine Task Force. It implores the authorities *not* to compromise the administering of the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines by altering the approved and tested two-dose schedule. "Altering" here means: (1) delaying the second dose (now 3-4 weeks after the first); (2) omitting the second dose; or (3) decreasing the amount of vaccine administered by 50%. The alterations would be because of shortages in delivery of the vaccines and delays in organizing the injections.

Yes, I agree. Because of the scientific research already done in determining the best protocol, messing with the new vaccine's initial round now is wrong. You have to stick with the plan. Patients and their advocates who have cooperated so far should receive the vaccine in the protocol that has been researched and has produced results.


----------



## Open Book

Editorial in the Boston Globe turns vaccination priority around and advocates vaccinating the young early. Because vaccinating them could be easily organized and because they are the biggest spreaders.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/01/11/opinion/vaccinate-youngest-first/


----------



## mikeh375

Here's a brilliant site with everything one would want to know about our Chinese interloper, including many clever interactive graphs and many pages of continually updated info.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid


----------



## KenOC

Some sloppy reporting from the *BBC*: "California was praised for acting swiftly to contain the coronavirus last spring. Now more than 31,000 people have died of the virus in the state. What went wrong?"

While California has the most cases, it also has the highest population. It is 26th among the states in infection rates, and 39th among the 50 states in COVID-19 death rates. None of this is mentioned in the article, of course.


----------



## joen_cph

Open Book said:


> Editorial in the Boston Globe turns vaccination priority around and advocates vaccinating the young early. Because vaccinating them could be easily organized and because they are the biggest spreaders.
> 
> https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/01/11/opinion/vaccinate-youngest-first/


We had the same debate here. Would cost many lives among the elderly, and health care staff members are essential & meeting a lot of people too.


----------



## Open Book

joen_cph said:


> We had the same debate here. Would cost many lives among the elderly, and health care staff members are essential & meeting a lot of people too.


The article isn't saying that young people should come before health care and essential workers, only that they should come before old people.

There is some doubt that being vaccinated will keep people from spreading the disease, it's not been proven, so a policy of going after the biggest spreaders first may not work anyway.


----------



## joen_cph

Open Book said:


> The article isn't saying that young people should come before health care and essential workers, only that they should come before old people.
> 
> There is some doubt that being vaccinated will keep people from spreading the disease, it's not been proven, so a policy of going after the biggest spreaders first may not work anyway.


One of the points being made here is that the younger, most social & less careful people have already been quite exposed to the virus, either not getting it, or being asymptomatic. The infections have generally moved into that group in recent months, but new, more aggressive virus types might change that pattern again.

The virus attacking usual learning/teaching procedures in society is however an increasingly worrying problem here; it's more than a year now, that schools and education generally have been hit by lock-downs etc.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Some sloppy reporting from the *BBC*: "California was praised for acting swiftly to contain the coronavirus last spring. Now more than 31,000 people have died of the virus in the state. What went wrong?"
> 
> While California has the most cases, it also has the highest population. It is 26th among the states in infection rates, and 39th among the 50 states in COVID-19 death rates. None of this is mentioned in the article, of course.


Correct.

California, with a population of 39,368,078, is the most populated state in the Union. More people live in California than the 21 least populated states.

More people live in *California* than in Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, Rhode Island, Montana, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, West Virginia, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico, Kansas Mississippi, Arkansas, Nevada, Iowa, and Utah *COMBINED*.

[Ironically, those 21 states are represented by a total of 42 US Senators, while California is represented by only 2.]

California makes up almost 12% of the US population.


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> The article isn't saying that young people should come before health care and essential workers, only that they should come before old people.
> 
> There is some doubt that being vaccinated will keep people from spreading the disease, it's not been proven, so a policy of going after the biggest spreaders first may not work anyway.


True. There are several reported cases of re-infections, i.e., people testing positive months later.

That is bad news for the vaccine. If immunity only lasts 4 months, 6 months, that means a vaccination schedule for everyone of twice a year.

The flu vaccine is a once a year thing already, and there are plenty of people that simply don't bother. But the "regular" flu isn't nearly as deadly as SARS-CoV-2.


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> True. There are several reported cases of re-infections, i.e., people testing positive months later.
> 
> That is bad news for the vaccine. If immunity only lasts 4 months, 6 months, that means a vaccination schedule for everyone of twice a year.
> 
> The flu vaccine is a once a year thing already, and there are plenty of people that simply don't bother. But the "regular" flu isn't nearly as deadly as SARS-CoV-2.


the vaccination will likely have some partial protection effect, so even if you get reinfected, the disease will be milder and you will not end up in the ICU


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Correct.
> 
> California, with a population of 39,368,078, is the most populated state in the Union. More people live in California than the 21 least populated states.
> 
> More people live in *California* than in Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, Rhode Island, Montana, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, West Virginia, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico, Kansas Mississippi, Arkansas, Nevada, Iowa, and Utah *COMBINED*.
> 
> [Ironically, those 21 states are represented by a total of 42 US Senators, while California is represented by only 2.]
> 
> California makes up almost 12% of the US population.


I feel like the goalposts keep getting shifted here. Initially, when New York/New Jersey were exploding, and people pointed out how horrible they were doing, particularly when compared to California which had a MUCH LARGER population, then we were told that was irrelevant. Now when California is exploding, we hear, well sure, after all, it is the most populated state in the Union. Why did that not matter before?


----------



## Flamme

The anti vaxx lobby is growing ever stronger...I see many ''rational'' people talking some crazy theories...


----------



## BachIsBest

pianozach said:


> True. There are several reported cases of re-infections, i.e., people testing positive months later.
> 
> That is bad news for the vaccine. If immunity only lasts 4 months, 6 months, that means a vaccination schedule for everyone of twice a year.
> 
> The flu vaccine is a once a year thing already, and there are plenty of people that simply don't bother. But the "regular" flu isn't nearly as deadly as SARS-CoV-2.


Natural immunity is not the same as the immunity the vaccine induces. The vaccine is engineered to cause long-lasting immunity.


----------



## Flamme

Or so we are said.


----------



## joen_cph

Flamme said:


> Or so we are said.


No we are not. It's an ongoing debate also among scientists and authorities, how long the vaccines might work, and whether for example we'll have to have annual vaccines, like with the flu, or even more than that. The new South-African mutation causes such worries, for example, since apparently it reduces natural immunity effects quicker than earlier virus types.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I feel like the goalposts keep getting shifted here. Initially, when New York/New Jersey were exploding, and people pointed out how horrible they were doing, particularly when compared to California which had a MUCH LARGER population, then we were told that was irrelevant. Now when California is exploding, we hear, well sure, after all, it is the most populated state in the Union. Why did that not matter before?


Beats me: I don't know to whom you were listening.

I've always gone with % - it seemed a better way to compare.


----------



## KenOC

The BBC asks, "How effective is a single vaccine dose against Covid-19?"

As often in life, Dirty Harry has the answer: "Do you feel lucky, punk?"


----------



## NoCoPilot

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I feel like the goalposts keep getting shifted here. Initially, when New York/New Jersey were exploding, and people pointed out how horrible they were doing, particularly when compared to California which had a MUCH LARGER population, then we were told that was irrelevant. Now when California is exploding, we hear, well sure, after all, it is the most populated state in the Union. Why did that not matter before?


If you're trying to make a point here, you're woefully missing the mark.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> True. There are several reported cases of re-infections, i.e., people testing positive months later.
> 
> That is bad news for the vaccine. If immunity only lasts 4 months, 6 months, that means a vaccination schedule for everyone of twice a year.
> 
> The flu vaccine is a once a year thing already, and there are plenty of people that simply don't bother. But the "regular" flu isn't nearly as deadly as SARS-CoV-2.


When I said, "There is some doubt that being vaccinated will keep people from spreading the disease", I wasn't referring to whether vaccinated people have immunity, and for how long, but whether they could still spread the virus to others, despite being protected themselves.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Open Book said:


> When I said, "There is some doubt that being vaccinated will keep people from spreading the disease", I wasn't referring to whether vaccinated people have immunity, and for how long, but whether they could still spread the virus to others, despite being protected themselves.


The misinformation that passes as accepted fact is astonishing.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I feel like the goalposts keep getting shifted here. Initially, when New York/New Jersey were exploding, and people pointed out how horrible they were doing, particularly when compared to California which had a MUCH LARGER population, then we were told that was irrelevant. Now when California is exploding, we hear, well sure, after all, it is the most populated state in the Union. Why did that not matter before?


The goalposts aren't shifting, the game is changing. The reasons for the surge in cases in New York early in the pandemic are different than the reasons for the surge in California now. After all the discussion about this that you took part in, you should know that. And I think you do.


----------



## Open Book

Open Book said:


> When I said, "There is some doubt that being vaccinated will keep people from spreading the disease", I wasn't referring to whether vaccinated people have immunity, and for how long, but whether they could still spread the virus to others, despite being protected themselves.





NoCoPilot said:


> The misinformation that passes as accepted fact is astonishing.


What is that supposed to mean? What misinformation? Who is accepting misinformation as fact?

From National Public Radio:

"*Can I spread the virus to others even if I'm fully vaccinated?*

This is an important question, but scientists studying the shots' effectiveness don't have an answer yet. And for public health experts, that lack of knowledge means you should act like the answer is yes.

Here's why: *Before approving the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, the FDA asked the vaccine manufacturers only whether their products protect people from COVID-19 symptoms. They didn't ask if the vaccines stop people who've been vaccinated from nevertheless spreading the virus to others. The emergency authorizations by the FDA that have allowed distribution of the two new vaccines cite only their ability to keep you - the person vaccinated - from becoming severely sick with COVID-19.
*

In the words of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "Experts need to understand more about the protection that COVID-19 vaccines provide before deciding to change recommendations on steps everyone should take to slow the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19."

The data to answer the question of whether vaccinated people can still spread the virus are just now being collected."

The full article:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/12/956051995/why-you-should-still-wear-a-mask-and-avoid-crowds-after-getting-the-covid-19-vac

And there are many other sources that say a similar thing, that the vaccines' developers aren't yet sure whether the vaccines fully inhibit infection or just keep symptoms undetectable.


----------



## Flamme

Economy will not survive these raging lockdowns of ''new reality''...All these new rules come so quickly that will change our lives forever in direction of more control, more robots, more drones, less human interactions...


----------



## KenOC

“The potential new head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has cautioned that at least one new coronavirus strain has shown resistance to treatments, but insists the vaccines are still effective.”

Basically, it is now thought that antibody treatments (Regneron, etc.) may be less effective against the new strains, but that the vaccines’ efficacy will not be impaired.

"We don't have any information whether it evades our vaccines," Walensky continued. "We have indication that it likely does not."


----------



## mmsbls

Please do not post political comments in this Covid thread. If you are not sure whether a comment is too political, please do not post it.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

I am not protected by a mask . The protection of a mask is a Satanic notion .


----------



## Open Book

I distinctly remember modeling of the disease's progress being shown early in the pandemic. There were multiple models put forth just as there are for weather prediction. One model predicted that aggressively attacking the disease and slowing it down early, I presume with lockdowns, would not reduce the total number of deaths but only defer them until later, maybe even increase the overall total -- there would be a spike in cases much later as a result.

It is later, and we are seeing spikes all over the world after a summer of flat curves. In nearly every U.S. state, red or blue. Is it only the easing social restrictions for the fall and winter holidays or has that model's prediction come true?


----------



## DaveM

There is nothing to indicate that changes in policy as the vaccines are becoming available are some kind of indication of alleged failure of past policies. As far as recent/present spikes go, has somebody forgotten about the (relatively, considering the situation) massive traveling and family get-togethers over the last few months regardless of warnings to the contrary.


----------



## pianozach

Tikoo Tuba said:


> I am not protected by a mask . The protection of a mask is a Satanic notion .


The masks are to protect _*others*_. It offers only little protection for yourself from being infected by others.

The notion of Satan is a notion of mythological proportions.


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> You might have a point. I distinctly remember modeling of the disease's progress being shown early in the pandemic. There were multiple models put forth just as there are for weather prediction. One model predicted that aggressively attacking the disease and slowing it down early, I presume with lockdowns, would not reduce the total number of deaths but only defer them until later, maybe even increase the overall total -- there would be a spike in cases much later as a result.
> 
> It is later, and we are seeing spikes all over the world after a summer of flat curves. In nearly every U.S. state, red or blue. Is it only the easing social restrictions for the fall and winter holidays or has that model's prediction come true?


There is some truth in that.

The plan (strategy?) was to *"flatten the curve"*, so that hospitals were not overwhelmed by cases, causing unnecessary deaths because of shortages of health care facilities and workers, even tanks of oxygen.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> There is some truth in that.
> 
> The plan (strategy?) was to *"flatten the curve"*, so that hospitals were not overwhelmed by cases, causing unnecessary deaths because of shortages of health care facilities and workers, even tanks of oxygen.


The natural thing to do in the midst of contagion is to keep people apart. That reduces contagion. That would seem like an instinctive reaction, except for some people it isn't, they appear not to have a healthy fear of danger. Or COVID just isn't dangerous enough for them.

Shutting down was the right thing to do to slow contagion, keep the hospitals running, and give scientists time to assess the level of threat and study it, and develop vaccines and other treatments. When you get more cases later in time rather than at the beginning of the pandemic you know better how to treat them.

But when I look at the spikes I just wonder if it's only because people are defying the safeguards or is nature adhering to that one model I remember, that predicted later spikes.


----------



## DaveM

There’s no mystery about the major spikes and resulting deaths over the last 4 months. They coincide with the Halloween to New Year holiday period when people partied and travelled in large numbers in spite of warnings and were predicted as far back as September. Compared to that, some model going back well before that is irrelevant.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Tikoo Tuba said:


> I am not protected by a mask . The protection of a mask is a Satanic notion .


...........................


----------



## NoCoPilot

Open Book said:


> What misinformation? Who is accepting misinformation as fact?


Sorry, I am prevented from responding in detail.


----------



## Open Book

DaveM said:


> There's no mystery about the major spikes and resulting deaths over the last 4 months. They coincide with the Halloween to New Year holiday period when people partied and travelled in large numbers in spite of warnings and were predicted as far back as September. Compared to that, some model going back well before that is irrelevant.


You're sure of that? Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas are not celebrated all over the world. We can't blame winter as a disease accelerant because it's not winter in the southern hemisphere. Are the spikes universal over the world? I have only been closely watching The U.S. and Europe to a lesser extent.

Fatigue can happen everywhere of course. It's been almost a year the world has been through this. People everywhere can tire of the restrictions and become lax. Except where adherence is strictly enforced.

Why is a model that epidemiologists came up with suddenly irrelevant? It could be very relevant to partially explain what is going on. The math behind it wasn't explained. Probably most of us wouldn't fully understand it.


----------



## Open Book

NoCoPilot said:


> Sorry, I am prevented from responding in detail.


Then why mention it? To provoke me?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> There's no mystery about the major spikes and resulting deaths over the last 4 months. They coincide with the Halloween to New Year holiday period when people partied and travelled in large numbers in spite of warnings and were predicted as far back as September. Compared to that, some model going back well before that is irrelevant.


I'd like to see more than just your assertion regarding this. And who travels for Halloween? Halloween precedes Thanksgiving by several weeks, but the spike in California started emerging in the beginning of November. Ditto for New York.

I don't know how you would measure this, other than with anecdotal data. But one measure you can go with is TSA checkpoint travel numbers. Granted, that only catches air travel, but better than nothing. For most of the year, from July until mid-to-late November, the numbers fluctuate a bit between 500,000 to 900,000. Beginning late November and into December, you start to see numbers again topping 1 million - still about half the numbers seen the year before. But this modest uptick lags the case rates, when if there was the cause/effect that you are implying, it should be the opposite. The case rates in California and New York started climbing at the beginning of November, before the increase in TSA checkpoint numbers. I think there is something else at play than your preferred explanation.
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> Then why mention it? To provoke me?


That would be my guess.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> The natural thing to do in the midst of contagion is to keep people apart. That reduces contagion. That would seem like an instinctive reaction, except for some people it isn't, they appear not to have a healthy fear of danger. Or COVID just isn't dangerous enough for them.
> 
> Shutting down was the right thing to do to slow contagion, keep the hospitals running, and give scientists time to assess the level of threat and study it, and develop vaccines and other treatments. When you get more cases later in time rather than at the beginning of the pandemic you know better how to treat them.
> 
> But when I look at the spikes I just wonder if it's only because people are defying the safeguards or is nature adhering to that one model I remember, that predicted later spikes.


My own theory has always been that we were going to get hit, it was just a matter of when. The smart strategy was to flatten the curve early, when little was known of the virus and we had no treatments and real good information about this virus, particularly given the disinformation that China was putting out (and the WHO was parroting). Most states in this country did that, and you saw very little spread early on in most of the country - the major exceptions were New York and New Jersey. I remember well the images - while I was locked down in my home - of Bill de Blasio urging businesses to go on as usual and of people packed into New York subway cars, not masked. And so they got hit hard when we were least prepared to deal with it. As a result, the death toll in New York has yet to be topped by even the most populous state in the Union, and likely won't, as New York currently seems to be close to matching California in terms of daily deaths. Due to their not locking down as well, New York and New Jersey were hit bad at a time when we didn't know how best to treat infection, and as a result, they had astonishingly high death rates.

Meanwhile, it was bound to hit the rest of the country eventually. But by the time we saw spikes in other states, we had a much better handle on how to treat, and as a result, the death rates weren't as high. Sure, we have a lot more deaths now, and the daily death rate, for the whole country, is higher than it was then, but that is with deaths climbing in the 48 other states, as opposed to the early death spike that was primarily coming from only 2.

This isn't an argument for herd immunity - merely stating that, given the high infectivity of this virus, spreading to every state was an inevitability. But most other states held it off until we knew better how to treat people.


----------



## DaveM

Open Book said:


> You're sure of that? Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas are not celebrated all over the world. We can't blame winter as a disease accelerant because it's not winter in the southern hemisphere. Are the spikes universal over the world? I have only been closely watching The U.S. and Europe to a lesser extent...





Open Book said:


> _ It is later, and we are seeing spikes all over the world after a summer of flat curves. In nearly every U.S. state, red or blue. Is it only the easing social restrictions for the fall and winter holidays or has that model's prediction come true?_


In your previous post, you seemed to be emphasizing the U.S. which is what I was referring to. As for the 'spikes universal over the world', my memory is that those early models were referring specifically to Europe and the U.S.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

pianozach said:


> The masks are to protect _*others*_. It offers only little protection for yourself from being infected by others.


Why ? Is the mask a one-way filter ? I have an issue ... issue , issue , issue ... 'scuse me while I sneeze .


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> The natural thing to do in the midst of contagion is to keep people apart. That reduces contagion. That would seem like an instinctive reaction, except for some people it isn't, they appear not to have a healthy fear of danger. Or COVID just isn't dangerous enough for them.
> 
> Shutting down was the right thing to do to slow contagion, keep the hospitals running, and give scientists time to assess the level of threat and study it, and develop vaccines and other treatments. When you get more cases later in time rather than at the beginning of the pandemic you know better how to treat them.
> 
> But when I look at the spikes I just wonder if it's only because people are defying the safeguards or is nature adhering to that one model I remember, that predicted later spikes.


Both.

The Federal response was a mixture of sensible warnings: On the one hand the Feds were advocating safety precautions such as wearing masks, and social distancing, but also sending out the message that it's nothing to worry about, just a flu, mocking the wearing of masks and calls to "open up" and save the economy. The president continually told the public it would "just disappear".

As a result, 30-50 million of his supporters openly defied the calls to wear masks and social distance.

Epidemiologists predicted, from the start, that there would likely be a "second wave", but I think it ended up being worse than predicted, likely because of a large number of people ignoring safety precautions. Now it appears we have the "third wave" that is worse than the first two. Well, a third wave HERE, in the US. Many other countries seem to have it under control.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> Both.
> 
> The Federal response was a mixture of sensible warnings: On the one hand the Feds were advocating safety precautions such as wearing masks, and social distancing, but also sending out the message that it's nothing to worry about, just a flu, mocking the wearing of masks and calls to "open up" and save the economy. The president continually told the public it would "just disappear".
> 
> As a result, 30-50 million of his supporters openly defied the calls to wear masks and social distance.
> 
> Epidemiologists predicted, from the start, that there would likely be a "second wave", but I think it ended up being worse than predicted, likely because of a large number of people ignoring safety precautions. Now it appears we have the "third wave" that is worse than the first two. Well, a third wave HERE, in the US. Many other countries seem to have it under control.


Why do so many other countries appear to have it under control, if you can believe what the maps seem to say (I don't)? Countries with much lower standards of living and less sanitation. Does anybody really believe that they're doing better because of their living conditions and policies?

If they do have it under control, we should try to learn why. If they don't, they need to keep better records. The whole world needs to wipe it out, not just the most affected parts of the world.


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My own theory has always been that we were going to get hit, it was just a matter of when. The smart strategy was to flatten the curve early, when little was known of the virus and we had no treatments and real good information about this virus, particularly given the disinformation that China was putting out (and the WHO was parroting). Most states in this country did that, and you saw very little spread early on in most of the country - the major exceptions were New York and New Jersey. I remember well the images - while I was locked down in my home - of Bill de Blasio urging businesses to go on as usual and of people packed into New York subway cars, not masked. And so they got hit hard when we were least prepared to deal with it. As a result, the death toll in New York has yet to be topped by even the most populous state in the Union, and likely won't, as New York currently seems to be close to matching California in terms of daily deaths. Due to their not locking down as well, New York and New Jersey were hit bad at a time when we didn't know how best to treat infection, and as a result, they had astonishingly high death rates.
> 
> Meanwhile, it was bound to hit the rest of the country eventually. But by the time we saw spikes in other states, we had a much better handle on how to treat, and as a result, the death rates weren't as high. Sure, we have a lot more deaths now, and the daily death rate, for the whole country, is higher than it was then, but that is with deaths climbing in the 48 other states, as opposed to the early death spike that was primarily coming from only 2.
> 
> This isn't an argument for herd immunity - merely stating that, given the high infectivity of this virus, spreading to every state was an inevitability. But most other states held it off until we knew better how to treat people.


I would watch how the number of active cases, i.e. people who are currently sick, was changing, the number that you want to see go to zero. It never did go to zero, it literally plateaued in the states that were doing the best. New York and New Jersey were two that managed to drastically knock down and flatten their curves, no matter that they started out badly. Red states didn't do as well but most did manage to slow their upward slopes for short times.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

New York had a low about 62 thousand people currently sick for about one month over the summer. Massachusetts had a low of 7000 currently sick for the same period. Those were the good days. Now there are more than 10 times as many active cases in New York and Massachusetts. I think the rise in cases started in late September.

The initial spread to every state happened very quickly. Even rural states like Montana and Wyoming had cases I think no more than 3 weeks after the very first cases were recorded in the U.S. Little dots all over the U.S. map very early on that increased in number, then became big circles. Just like today when a new strain is found, it jumps quickly all over the world. Very contagious disease.


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> ...It never did go to zero, it literally plateaued in the states that were doing the best. New York and New Jersey were two that managed to drastically knock down and flatten their curves, no matter that they started out badly. Red states didn't do as well...


I believe this is misleading. New York and New Jersey still lead the other 48 states in COVID-19 death rate, so it seems to me that red states (all of them in fact) do rather well by comparison.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I'd like to see more than just your assertion regarding this. And who travels for Halloween? Halloween precedes Thanksgiving by several weeks, but the spike in California started emerging in the beginning of November. Ditto for New York...


It would be nice if you would do a bit of your own research.

From ABC News:
_ Throughout the pandemic, social gatherings and crowded venues have resulted in an escalation of COVID-19 cases across the country. Prior to Halloween, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other health experts had repeatedly warned Americans about the risk of contracting COVID-19 during the holiday, and in particular, at indoor costume gatherings.

Despite these warnings, some people flouted recommendations. Although several large events made headlines, such as a gathering in Utah, which reportedly attracted thousands of costumed attendees, other smaller events in private homes and dorm rooms, seemingly slipped under the radar.

And now, officials say those smaller events could be contributing to the surging COVID-19 case numbers seen in communities across the country._


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> I believe this is misleading. New York and New Jersey still lead the other 48 states in COVID-19 death rate, so it seems to me that red states (all of them in fact) do rather well by comparison.


Define death rate, and do you mean now or over the summer? I don't know how the states compare to each other lately, I stopped watching sometime when it became obvious that the plateaus had turned into steady climbers.

What part of what I said is misleading?


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> Define death rate, and do you mean now or over the summer? I don't know how the states compare to each other lately, I stopped watching sometime when it became obvious that the plateaus had turned into steady climbers.
> 
> What part of what I said is misleading?


The numbers are in the source you quoted, Worldometer. Individual states are listed as sub-entries of the USA. Death rates are given state by state and can be used as a sort key: Look for "Deaths/1M pop". NY and NJ are the only two states exceeding 2,000 deaths per million population.

But your post is misleading on a deeper level, where you seem to relate a state's pandemic experience with the political party of its executive office. That is, frankly, not even passable as comedy.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> The numbers are in the source you quoted, Worldometer. Individual states are listed as sub-entries of the USA. Death rates are given state by state and can be used as a sort key: Look for "Deaths/1M pop". NY and NJ are the only two states exceeding 2,000 deaths per million population.
> 
> But your post is misleading on a deeper level, where you seem to relate a state's pandemic experience with the political party of its executive office. That is, frankly, not even passable as comedy.


If you're looking at deaths per million, that's from the beginning, and sure, New York might have the worst figure. That's because they started out the worst. But from that bad beginning New York made a lot of progress in the summer when the red states were out of control. New York brought their number of new cases and active cases way down while they were rising in the red states. Yes, it is probably from locking down their economy and other policies which red states did not impose.

From everything I've said here it should be clear that I think it's a mixture of things that are causing the current spikes which are everywhere. I never attributed anything exclusively to a state's politics. I said several times that an epidemiological model seems to have predicted a late spike if there were lockdowns. Or did you miss that?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> It would be nice if you would do a bit of your own research.
> 
> From ABC News:
> _ Throughout the pandemic, social gatherings and crowded venues have resulted in an escalation of COVID-19 cases across the country. Prior to Halloween, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other health experts had repeatedly warned Americans about the risk of contracting COVID-19 during the holiday, and in particular, at indoor costume gatherings.
> 
> Despite these warnings, some people flouted recommendations. Although several large events made headlines, such as a gathering in Utah, which reportedly attracted thousands of costumed attendees, other smaller events in private homes and dorm rooms, seemingly slipped under the radar.
> 
> And now, officials say those smaller events could be contributing to the surging COVID-19 case numbers seen in communities across the country._


"Officials say" and "could be." Notice they don't say, "scientists say this is" because really it is just some bureaucrat saying it. Utah's cases and deaths are a fraction of what California and New York are seeing.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> "Officials say" and "could be." Notice they don't say, "scientists say this is" because really it is just some bureaucrat saying it.


Well, you didn't specify did you. You said:



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I'd like to see more than just your assertion regarding this.


And that's what I gave you. Besides 'officials' could be epidemiology experts rather than just 'bureaucrats' for all you know.


----------



## Guest

I don’t think there is any great mystery to the projections and why they change as the situation develops. There will be exponential growth, and how fast depends on how much social interaction/distancing is in effect. The effective distancing is hard to measure (in depends on individual actions) and include in models. The situation (in the U.S.) is complicated by the situation where there is little central action and different states are implementing and dismantling distancing measures in an uncoordinated fashion. One state can shut down the outbreak, then get reinfected by other states. A spike can seem to come out of nowhere because the exponential growth in some previously unscathed state finally emerges. Projections go up and down as states change their approach. Given how contagious the disease is it is inevitable that essentially everyone will get it, unless an effective vaccine is deployed first. The main value of the distancing is to keep us alive until the vaccine can be deployed and to spread out infections over a longer period so that the health care system doesn't get overwhelmed. That's been sort of working.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Well, you didn't specify did you. You said:
> 
> And that's what I gave you. Besides 'officials' could be epidemiology experts rather than just 'bureaucrats' for all you know.


I was looking for more than idle speculation. And if it were actual experts, they would have said. There is a specificity to how journalists say things. If they mean epidemiologists or those who would have actual expertise in the area that would lend credibility to what they report, they would state that. In fact, they would list names and credentials.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I was looking for more than idle speculation. And if it were actual experts, they would have said. There is a specificity to how journalists say things. If they mean epidemiologists or those who would have actual expertise in the area that would lend credibility to what they report, they would state that. In fact, they would list names and credentials.


It wasn't idle speculation and it was a damn sight better than just your opinion regarding a spike after the Halloween period. Btw, you're not a professor grading a report. Best you do some research instead of just giving a random opinion while criticizing the results of actual reading on the subject by someone else.


----------



## Flamme

Meanwhile in Poland...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> It wasn't idle speculation and it was a damn sight better than just your opinion regarding a spike after the Halloween period. Btw, you're not a professor grading a report. Best you do some research instead of just giving a random opinion while criticizing the results of actual reading on the subject by someone else.


I shared the link to the TSA data regarding air travel which showed no significant increase in air travel at the time and just prior to when the latest spikes started. You quoted something about "officials" speculating. There is a difference. The spike started early in November, before the 10-day period following Halloween would have ended. What, people were traveling long distances for big Halloween bashes, but only by car, and traveled just in time for the spike to start immediately the day after Halloween? No. There should be lags - case increases and deaths lag these causative events. The timing of the spikes suggests that the cause preceded your officials' speculation that it was due to Halloween and later travel.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Open Book said:


> Why do so many other countries appear to have it under control, if you can believe what the maps seem to say (I don't)? Countries with much lower standards of living and less sanitation.


Here on the farm we have less sanitation . Of this , we believe our immune-response is more vigorous . We have a high standard of living , a good diet , and we live in the dirt , and we drink untreated water from a well . I let the dog wash the dishes . Gak ? All's well .

Is alienation from nature sufferable ?


----------



## KenOC

California has reported some bad reactions to the Moderna vaccine, but has decided all is in order and will continue to administer it. Story here.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

I find the vaccination goal of the new administration to be very underwhelming - 100 million vaccinated in the first 100 days. The fact of the matter is that over the last week we have already been averaging over 900,000 vaccinated/day, with some days exceeding 1 million. So the plan is to do some slight bit better?

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/


----------



## Strange Magic

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I find the vaccination goal of the new administration to be very underwhelming - 100 million vaccinated in the first 100 days. The fact of the matter is that over the last week we have already been averaging over 900,000 vaccinated/day, with some days exceeding 1 million. So the plan is to do some slight bit better?
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/


I think the plan is to maintain at least a million shots a day for one hundred days. That is a more serious and daunting challenge than a week's successes. Also, given the new administration's cranking up the level of both commitment and of expertise, there is every reason to suspect that the goalposts will be raised, and successfully so. Let's hope mask wearing and social distancing continue to be stressed. I would favor letting it be understood that those not wearing a mask exhibit no interest in their neighbors' health and welfare and are thus not "patriots".


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Strange Magic said:


> I think the plan is to maintain at least a million shots a day for one hundred days. That is a more serious and daunting challenge than a week's successes. Also, given the new administration's cranking up the level of both commitment and of expertise, there is every reason to suspect that the goalposts will be raised, and successfully so. Let's hope mask wearing and social distancing continue to be stressed. I would favor letting it be understood that those not wearing a mask exhibit no interest in their neighbors' health and welfare and are thus not "patriots".


That seems unconvincing. No - I wouldn't expect them to stay steady at their current rate, because as that tracker shows, the daily vaccination rate has steadily been increasing since vaccinations began. So promising 1 million per day seems like a purposeful lowball estimate - since we are already there - and given the steady increase already underway, we will likely hit 100 million well ahead of 100 days and then they can claim to have created a miracle. Classic underpromise, to give the illusion of competence.


----------



## Bulldog

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I find the vaccination goal of the new administration to be very underwhelming - 100 million vaccinated in the first 100 days. The fact of the matter is that over the last week we have already been averaging over 900,000 vaccinated/day, with some days exceeding 1 million. So the plan is to do some slight bit better?


I think it's significant to point out that when Biden originally announced his vaccination goal, the daily count wasn't 900,000 a day; it was about 200,000 a day.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bulldog said:


> I think it's significant to point out that when Biden originally announced his vaccination goal, the daily count wasn't 900,000 a day; it was about 200,000 a day.


I think they could have revised it upward. They currently are complaining about the poor implementation plan of the previous administration while at the same time saying they will essentially accomplish what the other would have, had they been frozen at the administration rate in place the day the previous administration left office.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Some sections of the UK media carping even at this very early stage due to vaccine roll-out 'already falling behind' the government's first-phase target. Presumably credit will be due whenever the expected daily vaccination quota is exceeded (as it was yesterday and the day before)? No, thought not...

Current UK vaccination projection is included in the link below:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274


----------



## Strange Magic

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I think they could have revised it upward. They currently are complaining about the poor implementation plan of the previous administration while at the same time saying they will essentially accomplish what the other would have, had they been frozen at the administration rate in place the day the previous administration left office.


I take it then that you do subscribe to the thesis that the new administration has decided to deliberately deceive the American public. Of course they could have revised it upward, but they chose prudence, caution, instead. Again, contrast the track record of this administration with that of the last. As I have noted, we all recall what was said about the pandemic throughout 2020. No need to reiterate it here.


----------



## BachIsBest

Hope you all rollout the vaccine quickly regardless of your political beliefs though!


----------



## Rogerx

No politics please !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

> Reporter: Mr. President, you said you set the goal at 100 million vaccines in the - is that high enough? Shouldn't you set the bar higher? That's basically where the US is right now.
> 
> Biden: When I announced it, you all said, 'It's not possible.' Come on, give me a break, man.


I'm not the only one who has noticed this. I think it is important to revise up these goals. If you are telling everybody that the current situation is a dismal failure, and then pronounce that you will only slightly improve it, then I fail to see how that is going to reassure anybody regarding the competency with which this vaccine can be administered.

I think the rules being set are too restrictive, and focusing on the wrong goals. For example, vaccinating the frontline healthcare workers now apparently also includes Midge who works back in hospital accounting and whose only contact with patients is through sending them their bill in the mail or talking to the insurance companies by phone. And in some jurisdictions, teachers managed to get themselves to the front of the line even though they still refuse to reopen schools. Furthermore, they are hopelessly complex. In some places, you have to go online and fill out questionnaires, sometimes upwards of 50 questions. I have numerous friends in the 65+ age bracket who can't even figure out FaceTime.

Why not simple, realistic goals. Like by age group. 75+ first. Then 65+. Then 55+. And so on. There is no confusion on that front. Show up with proof of age, get a vaccination.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Biden's absolutely fabulous inauguration speech sought to take politics out of the pandemic, because the virus doesn't care what party you belong to. There is no "politics" in refusing to wear a mask, or refusing to socially distance, or gathering in large unprotected crowds.

That's not politics. It's stupidity.


----------



## mmsbls

This thread is about the Covid-19 vaccine. Please do not post political comments here. If you are unsure whether a comment is political, please do not post it. We have removed many political posts and responses.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I'm not the only one who has noticed this. I think it is important to revise up these goals. If you are telling everybody that the current situation is a dismal failure, and then pronounce that you will only slightly improve it, then I fail to see how that is going to reassure anybody regarding the competency with which this vaccine can be administered.
> 
> I think the rules being set are too restrictive, and focusing on the wrong goals. For example, vaccinating the frontline healthcare workers now apparently also includes Midge who works back in hospital accounting and whose only contact with patients is through sending them their bill in the mail or talking to the insurance companies by phone. And in some jurisdictions, teachers managed to get themselves to the front of the line even though they still refuse to reopen schools. Furthermore, they are hopelessly complex. In some places, you have to go online and fill out questionnaires, sometimes upwards of 50 questions. I have numerous friends in the 65+ age bracket who can't even figure out FaceTime.
> 
> Why not simple, realistic goals. Like by age group. 75+ first. Then 65+. Then 55+. And so on. There is no confusion on that front. Show up with proof of age, get a vaccination.


Day 2.

Biden cannot "modify" or "fix" the vaccination distribution program because, evidently, there actually ISN'T one to fix. There was no plan.

What's been happening is that you have 50 Governors and states (more if you want to count DC, PR, and the handful of territories), all making up their own distribution plans based on the little information they've been given by the Feds, which in many cases is not correct. For instance, the "stockpile" of vaccines doesn't exist.

In my county we were told we'd be getting 100,000 vaccines, so it was announced we'd be getting to age 65+ next, but we only got 60,000 doses, so we're currently "sold out"; no appointments available, and we haven't even finished the 75+ yet.

This is going to take a little time to sort out and coordinate, as Biden basically has to start from scratch.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Day 2.
> 
> *Biden cannot "modify" or "fix" the vaccination distribution program because, evidently, there actually ISN'T one to fix. There was no plan.
> *
> What's been happening is that you have 50 Governors and states (more if you want to count DC, PR, and the handful of territories), all making up their own distribution plans based on the little information they've been given by the Feds, which in many cases is not correct. For instance, the "stockpile" of vaccines doesn't exist.
> 
> In my county we were told we'd be getting 100,000 vaccines, so it was announced we'd be getting to age 65+ next, but we only got 60,000 doses, so we're currently "sold out"; no appointments available, and we haven't even finished the 75+ yet.
> 
> *This is going to take a little time to sort out and coordinate, as Biden basically has to start from scratch.*


Not true, at least not according to Fauci.
From a CNN story on this matter:


> In a White House press briefing Thursday afternoon, Fauci rejected the suggestion that the Biden administration would have to build a distribution plan from "scratch."
> "We're certainly not starting from scratch, because there is activity going on in the distribution," Fauci said, adding that the Biden administration is "amplifying" in significant ways existing vaccine distribution efforts.
> "I mean we're coming in with fresh ideas, but also some ideas with ... the previous administration. You can't say it was absolutely not usable at all," Fauci said.


----------



## DaveM

It’s understandable that Fauci would pushback a bit since it inferred that he was doing nothing regarding distribution advice behind the scenes, but the fact is that there is virtually no distribution within states that is/was part of a federal plan and worse, there is no stock of vaccine that just days ago Azar said there was.

I got an appointment for the vaccine for 2 days from now. It was like winning the lottery because it was part of the last few doses made available in our County. There was an article in the local newspaper that appointments would be available starting at noon yesterday at an online site. Fifteen minutes beforehand, the site seized up and basically, my wife and I were attempting to connect over the next hour, logging on, getting Gateway Errors, logging off and trying again. I managed to get through, my wife didn’t. At 50 minutes after noon, all appointments were gone. This is no way to run a railroad.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> It's understandable that Fauci would pushback a bit since it inferred that he was doing nothing regarding distribution advice behind the scenes, but the fact is that there is virtually no distribution within states that is/was part of a federal plan and worse, there is no stock of vaccine that just days ago Azar said there was.
> 
> I got an appointment for the vaccine for 2 days from now. It was like winning the lottery because it was part of the last few doses made available in our County. There was an article in the local newspaper that appointments would be available starting at noon yesterday at an online site. Fifteen minutes beforehand, the site seized up and basically, my wife and I were attempting to connect over the next hour, logging on, getting Gateway Errors, logging off and trying again. I managed to get through, my wife didn't. At 50 minutes after noon, all appointments were gone. This is no way to run a railroad.


Sounds like the rollout of healthcare.gov

Anyways, I can believe what Fauci says or what you think. I've been told that we need to listen to Fauci, so I'm taking his word over yours. I trust he has more information on the matter than your own anecdotal experience.


----------



## Ad Astra

*David M* I pray that you are vaccinated without any side effects.

Be Well :tiphat:


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Strange Magic said:


> "You can't say it was *absolutely* not usable at all", Fauci said. He also said (CNN) the lack of candor from Trump's administration "very likely" cost lives. "...when you start talking about things that make no sense medically and no sense scientifically, that clearly is not helpful." All from same interview. Offered to give context.


Something else Fauci said:


> There's no secret. We've had a lot of divisiveness, we've had facts that were very, very clear, that were questioned. People were not trusting what health officials were saying.


As I understand it, the facts are very clear that masks are critical for controlling spread. It would be nice if Fauci could take the scientific community, especially the CDC, to task for telling, early on, their "noble lie" that masks were ineffectual. Lack of candor from the scientists has also been at play here, and that very likely also cost lives.


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Why not simple, realistic goals. Like by age group. 75+ first. Then 65+. Then 55+. And so on. There is no confusion on that front. Show up with proof of age, get a vaccination.


Besides reaching the most vulnerable groups first his would be the fastest way, wouldn't it, and speed counts.

But I can't help thinking people with certain occupations should take precedence. Beyond medical personnel, first responders, and teachers, I'm surprised other essential workers aren't in there, too. Anybody in the food industry who has to deal with other people in order to do their job. This includes supermarket workers, especially cashiers. Asking for proof of occupation is cumbersome unless the employer brings mass vaccination onsite.


----------



## KenOC

Our county's system is by tier: Front-line healthcare workers, then 75 or older (or 65+ with other serious risk conditions), and so forth. Everybody is being scheduled. You can't just "show up" with your driver's license; for many or most, that would mean at the tail end of a huge mob, no parking anywhere near the public vaccination points, major traffic issues, and so forth.

Anybody can register via an on-line app (most will be scheduled by other means if they don't sign in this way), which seems to be working well.

I believe the choke point in our system is vaccine availability. But the goals are to make sure the vaccination nurses are fully utilized while not generating monstrous queues of people just standing in line.


----------



## DaveM

Ad Astra said:


> *David M* I pray that you are vaccinated without any side effects.
> 
> Be Well :tiphat:


Very kind of you. Thanks.


----------



## KenOC

KenOC said:


> ...I believe the choke point in our system is vaccine availability. But the goals are to make sure the vaccination nurses are fully utilized while not generating monstrous queues of people just standing in line.


Guess I was wrong about that!



> The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in California - the most populous state in the U.S. - is proceeding at a slower pace than most, if not all, other states.
> 
> Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that California has received 4.7 million doses of the vaccine - but it has only administered 1.8 million doses...
> 
> Data from Bloomberg ranks California dead-last among all 50 U.S. states in terms of the percentage of shots utilized (37.3%). The CDC data suggests a slightly higher percent utilization rate of 38.2%.


----------



## Strange Magic

Total US COVID fatalities: 424,177

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Shared blame everywhere. We remember who said what, and when.


----------



## Jacck

The South African coronavirus mutation can infect multiple times, could hamper vaccine
https://www.salon.com/2021/01/23/th...n-infect-multiple-times-could-hamper-vaccine/


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> The South African coronavirus mutation can infect multiple times, could hamper vaccine
> https://www.salon.com/2021/01/23/th...n-infect-multiple-times-could-hamper-vaccine/


I'm not surprised.

I've been saying since last April that

1. We don't know how long immunity lasts, and
2. It will probably mutate.

Not that I'm actively or constantly studying the development, but I've kept a really good ear to the ground on this.

Immunity for the Polio vaccine generally lasts for years.
The immunity for a seasonal flu vaccine lasts around a year.
And it appears that the vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 may only last a few months. And now there's several strains.

Not good.


----------



## Ad Astra

Strange Magic said:


> Total US COVID fatalities: 424,177
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
> 
> Shared blame everywhere. We remember who said what, and when.


I don't think you can blame the Government past or present. You cannot stop death it is the same with climate change to think Governments have such control is hubris on their part. I'm sure things could have been handled better globally for instance no one banned flights out of China. Stopping all global travel for instance would have likely isolated this disease to China/Asia. It was first reported in October/November 2019 no action was taken. We will forever be paying the price of this inaction.

I think it's important to consider the US has a population much higher than that of any country in Europe. It is not a valid comparison to compare the death tolls without taking that into consideration. I've seen this done several times on the news and it's disingenuous. Side not you cannot believe the CCP either in regards to their death toll.

Any loss of life is sad but hopefully when this is all over a global response program will be put in place to limit the spread of future outbreaks.


----------



## DaveM

pianozach said:


> I'm not surprised.
> 
> I've been saying since last April that
> 
> 1. We don't know how long immunity lasts, and
> 2. It will probably mutate.
> 
> Not that I'm actively or constantly studying the development, but I've kept a really good ear to the ground on this.
> 
> Immunity for the Polio vaccine generally lasts for years.
> The immunity for a seasonal flu vaccine lasts around a year.
> And it appears that the vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 may only last a few months. And now there's several strains.
> 
> Not good.


Your reasons for concern are valid, but, regardless of the mutations and the chance of increased transmissibility and/or virulence, if the vaccines can, for the most part, prevent severe illness and chance for chronic effects, I'll be less worried. That isn't proven yet, but early evidence suggests that that may be possible.

Since I'm about to get my first dose of the vaccine and am not too optimistic about being able to get the 2nd dose in 3-4 weeks, I've been investigating the benefit of just one dose. It appears that at 3-4 weeks post 1st dose there may be as much as 80-90% efficacy in preventing symptomatic disease, but may be only 40-50% efficacy in preventing asymptomatic disease.


----------



## KenOC

My homeboys are working on a new vaccine that should be effective against "all strains" of the virus, including the coronavirus responsible for some common colds. It may be distributed as patches, like nicotine patches, that you stick onto your skin. No jab! The second dose can simply be mailed to you. This approach simplifies worldwide distribution and saves a lot of money. The article claims that distribution is typically six times the cost of the vaccine itself.

UC Irvine Scientists Working on COVID-19 Vaccine That Would Attack All Strains - NBC Los Angeles


----------



## Flamme

These strains are making me seriously strained...


----------



## joen_cph

Moderna now says that their vaccine is expected to work against the new UK and South-Africa mutations

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN29U1HC


----------



## pianozach

Ad Astra said:


> I don't think you can blame the Government past or present. You cannot stop death it is the same with climate change to think Governments have such control is hubris on their part. I'm sure things could have been handled better globally for instance no one banned flights out of China. Stopping all global travel for instance would have likely isolated this disease to China/Asia. It was first reported in October/November 2019 no action was taken. We will forever be paying the price of this inaction.
> 
> I think it's important to consider the US has a population much higher than that of any country in Europe. It is not a valid comparison to compare the death tolls without taking that into consideration. I've seen this done several times on the news and it's disingenuous. Side not you cannot believe the CCP either in regards to their death toll.
> 
> Any loss of life is sad but hopefully when this is all over a global response program will be put in place to limit the spread of future outbreaks.


I see this all the time on social media.

Total "numbers" aren't comparable. Rates are far more useful when comparing.

I've noticed it when discussing the individual states' death tolls. People will change the goalposts to suit their pre-decided conclusion . . .


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> I see this all the time on social media.
> 
> Total "numbers" aren't comparable. Rates are far more useful when comparing.
> 
> I've noticed it when discussing the individual states' death tolls. People will change the goalposts to suit their pre-decided conclusion . . .


I think rates or per capita aren't as useful as we might think - I think you have to hit a certain threshold before you can linearly correlate rates from one country to the next. Below a certain total population - or, more likely, population density - I doubt that the virus spreads in the same way as above that threshold. Thus, I think it is not really useful to look at seemingly "high" infection rates in some place like the Dakotas and think it is comparable to a "lower" rate in someplace like California.


----------



## Strange Magic

I'll wager that epidemiologists, virologists, and public health experts working in the field of pandemics have a reasonably good grip on the realities of the spread and infection rates of such, especially when prevention pre-vaccine depends upon social distancing, mask-wearing, and any given group's willingness to follow reasonable guidelines for keeping the spread down.


----------



## DaveM

I prefer to go by what the professionals are saying rather than by what ‘I think’.


----------



## Flamme

Many friends I know refuse to vax but they will be forced to any way...Im skeptical buit would probably vax when my time comes...Meanwhile something from Holland...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

At any rate, I'll take the ~3700 total active cases in both of the Dakotas against the 1.7 million active cases in California.


----------



## Strange Magic

South Dakota's Sturgis rally: Fox News story.....

"Nineteen percent of the 1.4 million new coronavirus cases in the U.S. between Aug. 2 and Sept. 2 can be traced back to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally held in South Dakota, according to researchers from San Diego State University's Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies.That's more than 266,000 coronavirus cases attributed to the 10-day event, which more than 460,000 people attended despite fears it could become a so-called super-spreader event."

In the months since, undoubtedly the effect and the infection further multiplied. Any particular state's figures must, in part, reflect superspreader events far beyond its borders as masses of maskless enthusiasts literally rub shoulders and faces. The Jan. 6th event will begin to register......


----------



## mmsbls

I deleted many more political posts.


----------



## Flamme

Well you got your work cut our for you...I think a bit of politics is OK because its unavoidable but some ''fall into fire'' its like an endless line of posts that have all to do with Trump, conservatives, liberals but almost nothing with original topic.


----------



## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> Well you got your work cut our for you...I think a bit of politics is OK because its unavoidable but some ''fall into fire'' its like an endless line of posts that have all to do with Trump, conservatives, liberals but almost nothing with original topic.


Many posters active now don't offer new ideas. But the 'trouble-makers' have been banished, at least temporarily, so what have we got?? It doesn't look like DavidA is coming back...


----------



## KenOC

We've got vaccines coming out of our ears! Just a few minutes ago, Novavax announced that its vaccine candidate was 89.3% effective in trials. Somebody will be happy about this, although it looks like they announced these results only after the market closed.


----------



## TxllxT

KenOC said:


> We've got vaccines coming out of our ears! Just a few minutes ago, Novavax announced that its vaccine candidate was 89.3% effective in trials. Somebody will be happy about this, although it looks like they announced these results only after the market closed.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-south-africa.html
Doesn't work on the South African variant


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

TxllxT said:


> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-south-africa.html
> Doesn't work on the South African variant


Are we going to have to boycott South Africa again?!?!


----------



## KenOC

TxllxT said:


> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-south-africa.html
> Doesn't work on the South African variant


The NYT article is interesting. The Novavax vaccine is only about 50% effective against the South African strain, which is at least better than nothing. Unhappily, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines now being distributed in the US also seem less effective against that strain.

Maybe we'll be developing new vaccines until the end of time…


----------



## DaveM

The Novavax vaccine is quite different than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The former is made from a stabilized form of the coronavirus spike protein using the company’s recombinant protein nanoparticle technology whereas the latter use messenger RNA (mRNA) to transmit information to immune cells to construct the spike protein. 

It’s still not clear how effective the mRNA vaccines will be against the South Africa strain. This may end up being something similar to the situation often seen with the flu vaccines where they are only 40-60% effective in preventing disease, but are more effective than that in preventing severe disease.


----------



## TxllxT

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/health/covid-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson-variants.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

The single jab Johnson & Johnson vaccin has the same problem as Novavax: effectivity drops to 57% because of the SA variant

https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-covid-19-vaccine-was-66-effective-in-late-stage-study-11611925201?mod=hp_lead_pos5 Wallstreet Journal has 66%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/29/covid-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson/?itid=hp-top-table-main Washington Post 66%


----------



## Jacck

I got my second Pfizer shot today. I am feeling a little more tired than usual. Some colleagues who got the second shot earlier reported fever. The reaction after the second shot is generally stronger than after the first one. One collague got an alergic reaction. The most commen side effect is pain in the deltoid muscle lasting for several days. And in half a year or so, the South African variant will become the dominant one and can get vaccinated again.


----------



## Flamme

Good luch with that...A little more tired might be ''falling under weather''? There was a really funny thing that Serbian president told public how he ''ordered 6 000 000 vaccines, but powerful states took them all because they want to vaxx even cats and dogs''...He also said ''that it is easier to buy an atomic bomb than obtain vaccines''...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Good luch with that...A little more tired might be ''falling under weather''? There was a really funny thing that Serbian president told public how he ''ordered 6 000 000 vaccines, but powerful states took them all because they want to vaxx even cats and dogs''...He also said ''that it is easier to buy an atomic bomb than obtain vaccines''...


it's the microchips. That is why they built the 5G networks, so they can thought control us. The pandemic was engineered. Bill Gates owns a virus research facility in Wuhan. Is it a coincidence?


----------



## Flamme

Yeah vaxx turnes ones brain into gelee...Be careful. Be VERY careful!


----------



## Guest

A useful article on Covid protocol from The Guardian.
Everyday Covid mistakes we are all still makinghttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/29/everyday-covid-mistakes-we-are-all-still-making


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Good luch with that...A little more tired might be ''falling under weather''? There was a really funny thing that Serbian president told public how he ''ordered 6 000 000 vaccines, but powerful states took them all because they want to vaxx even cats and dogs''...He also said ''that it is easier to buy an atomic bomb than obtain vaccines''...


He might be right, I dont know. It is clear that we are seeing some quarrels for the limited vaccine supplies, and this will likely continue for some months until the vaccine production is ramped up. And all the powerful states, especially if they have narcissist populist leaders, will want to go "my country first" to show their voters how tough and patriotic they are. The different strains and mutations are going to mix things a little bit. So even countries who get vaccinated first might be attacked by another strain and the whole circus will start again.


----------



## Flamme

He claimed that some big and rich states bought off or just ''took'' 3 or 4 times more vaccines then they have inhabitants...
https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/27/astrazeneca-row-could-spark-an-eu-uk-vaccine-trade-war-warns-mep


----------



## KenOC

The Johnson & Johnson (AKA Janssen) single-jab vaccine has completed a trial with 44,000 subjects and showed 66% efficacy. But it was almost completely effective in preventing hospitalization and death.

Full story *here*.


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> it's the microchips. That is why they built the 5G networks, so they can thought control us. The pandemic was engineered. Bill Gates owns a virus research facility in Wuhan. Is it a coincidence?


Actually, Bill Gates does _*NOT*_ own a virus research facility in Wuhan. That story's been circulating online, and it's just more conspiracy bullcrap.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...is-not-owned-by-glaxosmithkline-idUSKBN28R2UK

And *"They"* are not trying to find ways to track us, because "They" know everything about you already using existing tech and records. Every damn post on blogs and social media, every location, every credit card transaction, every number that's called you or that you have called, every damn online quiz to "find out what color dragon" you are, or "which Harry Potter character are you?"

And *"thought control?"* 70 million people voted for a homophobic, racist, misogynistic blowhard a couple of months ago, because of an onslaught of misinformation.


----------



## Jacck

it looks like I have some subfebrile as well, which is probably good, the microchips are getting embedded into my DNA


----------



## Flamme

Do you feel it...They start to ''grow on you''...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Do you feel it...They start to ''grow on you''...


maybe there is some alien DNA in the vaccine and soon I will start to mutate into an alien. Bill Gates might be in cahoots with the greys or reptilians, just like Soros


----------



## Strange Magic

"George Soros" and "Bill Gates" are the same entity. Someone told me that, and I defy you to prove me wrong, as your "proof" will be further evidence of the conspiracy.


----------



## KenOC

A summary of the four vaccines currently in the news:

Johnson & Johnson (Janssen)
One dose
66% effective overall, 85% effective preventing hospitalization and death
Requires moderate refrigeration
$10 per dose

Pfizer/BioNTech
Two doses, 21 days apart
95% effective
Requires extreme refrigeration
$19.50 per dose

Moderna
Two doses, 28 days apart
95% effective
Requires moderate refrigeration
$25-$37 per dose

AstraZeneca-University of Oxford
Two doses, 28 days apart
62-90% depending on dosing regimen
Requires moderate refrigeration
$3-$4 per dose


----------



## Flamme

> "In the Pfizer contract it's very clear: 'we're not responsible for any side effects.' If you turn into a crocodile, it's your problem"


https://indianexpress.com/article/t...to-crocodiles-reactions-jacare-memes-7111095/


----------



## Jacck

Africa, Ill-Equipped and Without Vaccines, Grapples With a Deadlier Covid-19 Surge
https://www.universalpersonality.co...ines-grapples-with-a-deadlier-covid-19-surge/

the South African variant looks nasty


----------



## Roger Knox

Flamme said:


> There was a really funny thing that Serbian president told public how he ''ordered 6 000 000 vaccines, but powerful states took them all because they want to vaxx even cats and dogs''...He also said ''that it is easier to buy an atomic bomb than obtain vaccines''...


In North America we are still slow on the uptake when it comes to learning about Eastern Europe, including languages. Neverthe- less we do get enough of your news to know that certain leaders are a problem, as in western Europe and North America. Canada didn't do very well on the vaccine orders either, and we'll be 6 months behind some more powerful countries. That's too bad because support for vaccination (and masks) is generally high. It puts more pressure on us to be safer and smarter.


----------



## NoCoPilot

KenOC said:


> A summary of the four vaccines currently in the news:
> 
> Johnson & Johnson (Janssen)
> One dose
> 66% effective overall, 85% effective preventing hospitalization and death
> Requires moderate refrigeration
> $10 per dose
> 
> Pfizer/BioNTech
> Two doses, 21 days apart
> 95% effective
> Requires extreme refrigeration
> $19.50 per dose
> 
> Moderna
> Two doses, 28 days apart
> 95% effective
> Requires moderate refrigeration
> $25-$37 per dose
> 
> AstraZeneca-University of Oxford
> Two doses, 28 days apart
> 62-90% depending on dosing regimen
> Requires moderate refrigeration
> $3-$4 per dose


*Correction: *J&J is 66% effective against mild symptoms, 85% effective at preventing serious symptoms, and 100% effective at preventing hospitalization or death. That's pretty darn good for a single ten dollar jab.

Pfizer and Moderna are 94-95% effective against even mild symptoms, but much harder to store and distribute.

Personally, I'd settle for some mild non-life-threatening symptoms if I can get* any* of the vaccines. The earliest I could get a vaccine appointment is March 20.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

I know an old crazy trippy woman . Her name is Dose Me .
When we were introduced I did not want to say hello , dose me .


----------



## KenOC

From a story on Dr. Tom Inglesby, Director of the Center for Health Security of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health:

“Inglesby praised the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, however, saying that it was an "amazing" development that provides a much-needed boost as the country pushes to vaccinate more people in an aggressive campaign.

“He also suggested that trials for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine accounted for the new variants – an element for which the earlier Pfizer and Moderna vaccines could not have tested – and that might have factored into the Johnson & Johnson vaccine’s lower efficacy.

“The vaccine also appears to improve in efficacy as time goes on, reaching potentially 85% protection against all strains after 28 days.”

It’s an interesting thought that more recently-developed vaccines may appear less effective because the original vaccines were never tested against the newer strains. Talk about a moving target!


----------



## NoCoPilot

This pandemic will remain a moving target until we get it under control and stop spreading it willy-nilly. I heard on the news last night that the variants have all arisen in countries (UK, South Africa, Brazil) with the worst containments, because the extravagant number of infections allows mutations to multiply.

Stop the spread, stop the mutations.


----------



## DaveM

We’ve had to learn to live with a flu vaccine that, in any given year can be ‘only’ 40-70% effective in preventing the disease, but is usually 85-95% effective in preventing severe disease. All of this due to the constant mutations of the flu virus. I’ve experienced this more than once over the years. I’ll have lethargy and some reduction in appetite, but not the severe malaise, sore throat and other symptoms of the full flu.

We’ll probably end up with some version of this scenario with Covid-19. One thing still missing is a treatment such as with Tamiflu for the flu.


----------



## adriesba

Article from CNBC: 
*
"There will be enough Covid vaccines for the 'entire U.S. adult population by June,' Johnson & Johnson board member says"*https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/there-will-be-enough-covid-vaccines-for-the-entire-us-adult-population-by-june-doctor-says.html

Hopefully it works out and they can get them produced by then.


----------



## KenOC

Covid tsunami forecast. Who to believe?

"Top epidemiologist urges single doses of COVID-19 vaccine -- One dose of Moderna's vaccine has proven to be 80 percent effective, while just one shot of Pfizer's has an efficacy rate of 52 percent"

Top epidemiologist urges single doses of COVID-19 vaccine | Fox News


----------



## Jacck

NoCoPilot said:


> This pandemic will remain a moving target until we get it under control and stop spreading it willy-nilly. I heard on the news last night that the variants have all arisen in countries (UK, South Africa, Brazil) with the worst containments, because the extravagant number of infections allows mutations to multiply.
> 
> Stop the spread, stop the mutations.


the coronavirus is likely never going to go away. It is going to stay as a seasonal virosis just like common cold never really went away. But people are going to build some partial immunity/resistance to it, and the lethality will go down. It will become endemic.


----------



## ArtMusic

Jacck said:


> the coronavirus is likely never going to go away. It is going to stay as a seasonal virosis just like common cold never really went away. But people are going to build some partial immunity/resistance to it, and the lethality will go down. It will become endemic.


I agree, unfortunately thanks to the disgusting Wuhan labs and the repugnant Chinese scientists who spread it out.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> the coronavirus is likely never going to go away. It is going to stay as a seasonal virosis just like common cold never really went away. But people are going to build some partial immunity/resistance to it, and the lethality will go down. It will become endemic.


We really don't know that. But at any rate, that is kind of a useless point - with the exception of the smallpox virus, we haven't really eradicated any virus. They are all still out there. As to whether this is going to act like the flu, again, that's hard to say. As to the common cold, you'll never eradicate that because there is no single virus responsible for the common cold. Quite honestly, my son caught this virus, and had he not been tested and come back positive, I would not have been able to distinguish his symptoms from the common cold. The problem with the flu virus is that it has so many other animal hosts - and that is also where the major mutations occur. In contrast, after we control this pandemic, who is to say it isn't going to then behave like SARS or MERS? It is still going now because there isn't really any block to it.


----------



## Guest

ArtMusic said:


> I agree, unfortunately thanks to the disgusting Wuhan labs and the repugnant Chinese scientists who spread it out.


I will give you the benefit of the doubt that interpret that comment as sarcasm.


----------



## EdwardBast

Baron Scarpia said:


> I will give you the benefit of the doubt that interpret that comment as sarcasm.


He believes in Bigfoot. So …


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We really don't know that. But at any rate, that is kind of a useless point - with the exception of the smallpox virus, we haven't really eradicated any virus...


Actually, the virus that causes rinderpest, a serious disease of cattle and related species, has been totally eliminated. An especially severe outbreak in Africa around the turn of the last century killed about 80 to 90% of all cattle in eastern and southern Africa, as well as in the Horn of Africa.

An aggressive worldwide vaccination program was later undertaken. The last confirmed case was in 2001, and the virus was officially ruled extinct in 2011.


----------



## KenOC

When I entered the military during the buildup for the Vietnam War in 1965, we all required multiple shots to cover a multitude of diseases. We were formed up and marched past medical troops, each equipped with a "shot gun", which injected a measured dose of medicine through the skin using compressed air. One corpsman could easily inject three of four people per minute, since the shot guns contained sizable reservoirs of whatever was being administered that day.

People have been asking why we're not using this technology to speed up the current vaccination efforts. The answer seems to be that, in the US at least, the FDA approves the vaccine and its method of delivery at the same time. If the trials and so forth used needles, then needles will be the approved vaccination method. Compressed air injection will not.


----------



## NoCoPilot

There's another new vaccine out of Russia that is 92% effective. Sounds promising.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55900622

In the drive to vaccine the world we need every option we can get.


----------



## NoCoPilot

KenOC said:


> People have been asking why we're not using this technology to speed up the current vaccination efforts.


I'd guess refrigeration. That, and the fact that getting the shot isn't the bottleneck, it's the supply of the vaccine.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Read this, Ken.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-clinic-overnight-vaccines-freezer-broke.html


----------



## wkasimer

NoCoPilot said:


> I'd guess refrigeration. That, and the fact that getting the shot isn't the bottleneck, it's the supply of the vaccine.


And people willing and able to administer the shots, who aren't otherwise occupied...


----------



## Strange Magic

As a longtime receiver of injections of the usual spectrum of vaccines (pneumonia, flu, DPT, etc.) I am certain that almost anyone could be "trained" to administer the injections, given modern syringes and needles. It is not rocket science. It would be merely the necessity to screen out the obviously unsuited and to intermix a cadre of professionals within the ranks to both observe and to themselves inject.


----------



## Ad Astra

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-55881753

the World became a little worse off today.


----------



## pianozach

NoCoPilot said:


> There's another new vaccine out of Russia that is 92% effective. Sounds promising.
> https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55900622
> 
> In the drive to vaccine the world we need every option we can get.


Ah. The Russians.

Did you know that they have a reputation of over-exaggerating their accomplishments?


----------



## NoCoPilot

The data can be shared and compared. I know another country closer to home that quite recently refused to share data.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Besides, the results of the trial were printed in The Lancet, which is a respected _British_ journal.


----------



## Ad Astra

pianozach said:


> Ah. The Russians.
> 
> Did you know that they have a reputation of over-exaggerating their accomplishments?


The Americans, Europeans, Chinese etc all do the same. The Russians don't tend to lie about their medical procedures and if you have the money they have a first class health system (much like the US, Cold War is over time to stop blaming the Russians for everything


----------



## ArtMusic

Baron Scarpia said:


> I will give you the benefit of the doubt that interpret that comment as sarcasm.


None intended. The virus came out of a lab in Wuhan. The chief scientist there has also disappeared.


----------



## Jacck

ArtMusic said:


> None intended. The virus came out of a lab in Wuhan. The chief scientist there has also disappeared.


WHO is in it too
WHO team heads to China bat lab at the center of coronavirus conspiracies
they go there to cover their tracks


----------



## Jacck

The Second COVID-19 Shot Is a Rude Reawakening for Immune Cells
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/second-vaccine-side-effects/617892/


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> Besides, the results of the trial were printed in The Lancet, which is a respected _British_ journal.


Wakefield's "study" linking autism to the MMR vaccine was also published in The Lancet.


----------



## joen_cph

Ad Astra said:


> . The Russians don't tend to lie about their medical procedures (...) much like the US, Cold War is over time to stop blaming the Russians for everything


No, there has been some massive changes in the relevant virus statistics, underestimates later admitted, and a strange, extreme rise in the case of pneumonia deaths and other fatalities. Not to mention the diagnosis procedures of certain politically controversial persons, and sudden window-related deaths of critical doctors at the start of the pandemic.


----------



## Pyotr

Jacck said:


> The Second COVID-19 Shot Is a Rude Reawakening for Immune Cells
> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/second-vaccine-side-effects/617892/


Here's a personal testimony. However, the good news is the reaction is not as bad on the 65+






I'll be going for mine next week (Pfizer). Had the shingles shot last year and I recall the second shot was a lot worse than the first.


----------



## pianozach

Ad Astra said:


> *The Americans*, Europeans, Chinese etc all *do* the same. *The Russians don't tend to lie about their medical procedures* and if you have the money they have a first class health system (much like the US, Cold War is over time to stop blaming the Russians for everything


*ROFLMAO!*

They most certainly do. Brazenly even. As did Mr. Trump. Both he AND the Russians lie chronically and with authority.

The Russian continually lie about practically EVERYTHING, including scientific and medical accomplishments.


----------



## Ad Astra

pianozach said:


> *ROFLMAO!*
> 
> They most certainly do. Brazenly even. As did Mr. Trump. Both he AND the Russians lie chronically and with authority.
> 
> The Russian continually lie about practically EVERYTHING, including scientific and medical accomplishments.


I meant on terms of treatments not doping or anything like this. I have had treatment in Russia over 10 years ago I am fine and healthy. A treatment not allowed in the EU.

Typical politicking on your behalf as usual Trump has nothing to do with the Russians. Even your own multi-million dollar investigation found nothing, Perhaps tone down the xenophobic rhetoric? Or does it get a pass because "Big Bad Russia"?


----------



## Jacck

Ad Astra said:


> I meant on terms of treatments not doping or anything like this. I have had treatment in Russia over 10 years ago I am fine and healthy. A treatment not allowed in the EU.
> 
> Typical politicking on your behalf as usual Trump has nothing to do with the Russians. Even your own multi-million dollar investigation found nothing, Perhaps tone down the xenophobic rhetoric? Or does it get a pass because "Big Bad Russia"?


let us differentiate between Russia, Russians and Russian regime. The current Russian regime is simply evil, autocratic, cleptocratic and does a lot of mischief all over the world and at home. And the regime is currently at war with us, a war we did not start or provoke. It started to meddle in our politics, started an information war using trolls, started supporting various extremists in our societies to destabilize us. People like Trump, Farage, LePen, Orban are witting or unwitting Russian agents of chaos in the west. The regime needs this war to survive at home. (then he can unify the Russians against the external threat from the decadent West) and it also sees open democratic societies as existential threats to itself. The current Russian regime are a bunch of guys from the former KGB, who continue to steal resources from their own country and channel the money to the west for safekeeping. The Trump Org was an enterprise that got rich by laundering dirty Russian money stolen at home. And none of this is for discussion. These are official facts supported by most western intelligence agencies. You can question it only if you get your information from some "alternative" sources (which are most likely Russian disinformation anyway)


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Ad Astra said:


> I meant on terms of treatments not doping or anything like this. I have had treatment in Russia over 10 years ago I am fine and healthy. A treatment not allowed in the EU.
> 
> Typical politicking on your behalf as usual Trump has nothing to do with the Russians. Even your own multi-million dollar investigation found nothing, Perhaps tone down the xenophobic rhetoric? Or does it get a pass because "Big Bad Russia"?


I don't know - maybe it is my American bias. But for all of its flaws and costs, I still think I'd rather get just about anything medical done here in the U.S. I know that there is good stuff being done in Russia, but I'm not terribly convinced.


----------



## DaveM

It is disturbing that the longevity of males in Russia is circa 65 years vs. 76 years in the U.S. Still, the U.S. has to address the fact that male longevity in a number of other western nations is around 80 years.


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> It is disturbing that the longevity of males in Russia is circa 65 years vs. 76 years in the U.S. Still, the U.S. has to address the fact that male longevity in a number of other western nations is around 80 years.


alcohol is killing the Russians. 
https://russia-news.org/2020/11/06/alcohol-killing-directly-or-indirectly-html/
one of the few positive things about Putin is that he does not like alcohol and wanted to do something about the Russian culture of alcoholism


----------



## Roger Knox

Jacck said:


> alcohol is killing the Russians.
> https://russia-news.org/2020/11/06/alcohol-killing-directly-or-indirectly-html/
> one of the few positive things about Putin is that he does not like alcohol and wanted to do something about the Russian culture of alcoholism


it starts with those endless vodka toasts ...


----------



## pianozach

Ad Astra said:


> I meant on terms of treatments not doping or anything like this. I have had treatment in Russia over 10 years ago I am fine and healthy. A treatment not allowed in the EU.
> 
> Typical politicking on your behalf as usual Trump has nothing to do with the Russians. Even your own multi-million dollar investigation found nothing, Perhaps tone down the xenophobic rhetoric? Or does it get a pass because "Big Bad Russia"?


Cute. I actually wasn't inferring any connection between Trump and Russians other than the lying, although there is a lot of evidence that ties the two together. Yeah, we had an investigation, but lately our government has been just as corrupt, so, no surprise there.

We're all aware of the 14,000 lies Trump has told in 5 years.

We're also all aware that lying seems to be the national pastime of Russia. I cannot fathom why you are jumping to their defense. It's a well known and commonly accepted fact that the Russian government lies. The legacies of czarism and Stalin have led to a culture of dishonesty and zero accountability in Russian politics.

The sports doping scandals, the denial of their involvement in east Ukraine, the "lost" servicemen, and on and on.

A lot of the blame for Russia's KGB-style treatment of information can be tied to Putin himself. As the former head of Russian "security", of course his strategy is to continue the culture of obfuscation and disinformation.


----------



## Jacck

Opinion: Why the pandemic won't be over until 2024
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/opinions/2021/02/03/covid-19-pandemic-end-lon-orig-bks.cnn


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> Opinion: Why the pandemic won't be over until 2024
> https://edition.cnn.com/videos/opinions/2021/02/03/covid-19-pandemic-end-lon-orig-bks.cnn


Without even clicking through to the article/video, I'm already way ahead on this.

When the pandemic came to global attention in mid-March, somehow here in the USA it was met with denial, led by a President that continually lied about it.

If we'd masked up properly and socially distanced, and taken some other precautions (hand washing, etc.), our number of cases and death count would not have been as awful as it's been.

But we had science deniers all over the country that mocked the wearing of masks, and instead screamed about "opening up" the economy instead.

So we failed, pretty much deliberately, to keep the virus under control. There are now a half dozen or more different strains. We really f-ed it up. People in other countries also parroted the mockery presented by our President. Not only did we fail to contain it HERE, but we did nothing to try to mitigate its spread in underdeveloped parts of the world, as we did with the Ebola virus.

So, now I'll read the article to see if it mentions these things, and to see what ELSE it mentions.


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> Opinion: Why the pandemic won't be over until 2024
> https://edition.cnn.com/videos/opinions/2021/02/03/covid-19-pandemic-end-lon-orig-bks.cnn


OK, then, the linked video wasn't talking specifically only about the "initial" phase, but the cultural and economic ramifications of the pandemic as well - the recovery phases.

Frankly, I think his predictions are a bit optimistic, as he's predicting an "end" to the "initial" phase of the pandemic by the end of THIS year, and I'm predicting that because our regional dysfunctionality, we won't be seeing the pandemic continue on his "if-all-goes-according-to-plan" timeline, but rather on a "slow track", where the "initial" phase continues on for a few years.

We'll see.


----------



## ToneDeaf&Senile

Well poot! Got an email from my clinic, where I'm on the list for C19 vaccine. They say most of the doses in my state are being sent to Pharmacies rather than medical establishments, and no further scheduling is occurring at this time.

Called a 'local' pharmacy. They're out and won't know anything further until at least this time next week.

I hoped our recent change in regimes would set things on the right path, but guess not. (I'm phase-1 due to age and medical history, so should have high-priority, if I'm ever able to schedule.)


----------



## Roger Knox

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Wakefield's "study" linking autism to the MMR vaccine was also published in The Lancet.


And retracted...........................


----------



## NoCoPilot

pianozach said:


> We're also all aware that lying seems to be the national pastime of Russia. I cannot fathom why you are jumping to their defense. It's a well known and commonly accepted fact that the Russian government lies.
> 
> The sports doping scandals, the denial of their involvement in east Ukraine, the "lost" servicemen, and on and on.


I think it's reasonable to make a distinction between the Russian government, and the Russian people. Certainly they do some cutting edge science there, and build good space stations. Probably most, the vast majority of the Russian populace are honest hard-working fact-based citizens living under a regime which is anything but.


----------



## NoCoPilot

ToneDeaf&Senile said:


> I hoped our recent change in regimes would set things on the right path, but guess not.


It may take more than 15 days to turn around a ship this big, and this mis-captained.


----------



## KenOC

In my county of 3+ million people, 80% of the vaccine is going to medical service providers and 20% to county health authorities, that have set up their own vaccination centers. If you want to sign up with the county, you use an app (also a web page) called "Othena" which sooner or later contacts you by e-mail with an appointment.

Oddly, the County (unlike the service providers) is totally ignoring the State-mandated "tier" rules and is operating purely on a first-come first-served basis. My wife got her e-mail last night and scheduled herself (using the app) for her first jab this morning. The site, at a nearby university, was extremely organized and was moving people through quite quickly. Nice to see that. She was told to expect another e-mail in a week or two, since she got the Pfizer vaccine which has a 21-day interval between jabs.

BTW I read that in Great Britain they're starting trials of "mixed" vaccines, where you get a second jab of a vaccine different from your first. It is thought this may be effective.


----------



## pianozach

ToneDeaf&Senile said:


> Well poot! Got an email from my clinic, where I'm on the list for C19 vaccine. They say most of the doses in my state are being sent to Pharmacies rather than medical establishments, and no further scheduling is occurring at this time.
> 
> Called a 'local' pharmacy. They're out and won't know anything further until at least this time next week.
> 
> I hoped our recent change in regimes would set things on the right path, but guess not. (I'm phase-1 due to age and medical history, so should have high-priority, if I'm ever able to schedule.)


The country's big, and the problems are large and numerous. The new administration has been in for a scant two weeks, and the opposition party is still finding ways to sabotage the system in small and large ways. The vaccine distribution issues weren't going to magically be fixed on January 20th.

For instance, Biden was unable to get an Attorney General approved because the OTHER party was stonewalling on coming to a compromise on the new power structure.

We're still stuck with the Postmaster General that installed, because there is an Advisory Panel that gets to handle his firing, and Trump also stacked that panel with loyalists.


----------



## KenOC

"Johnson & Johnson submitted its single-dose COVID-19 vaccine candidate for emergency use authorization to the Food and Drug Administration on Thursday calling it a "pivotal step forward" to "putting an end to the pandemic."

Johnson & Johnson submits single-dose COVID-19 vaccine candidate to FDA for emergency use authorization | Fox Business

If approved, this may be the new vaccine of choice in the US. One jab!


----------



## NoCoPilot

The J&J vaccine has several advantages -- normal refrigeration, low cost, single jab -- that make it suitable for rural and hard-to-reach areas. I don't know if its any easier to manufacture, but J&J says they have millions of doses ready to ship if the EUA comes through.

Oddly, the FDA isn't expected to meet to vote on the EUA until February 26. I don't know why they don't feel any urgency.


----------



## DaveM

As more and more people are receiving their 1st dose of the mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) vaccines, the question of efficacy after one dose is becoming more important. Recent studies of the Pfizer indicate that some protection starts at about 12 days after the 1st dose and somewhere between 15 -21 days, it rises to 89%. Maximum protection after the 2nd dose of 95% occurs at about 7 days.

There is apparently little or no information on the protection of a single dose after 28 days.


----------



## NoCoPilot

The testing done, and the efficacy stats presented, are based on the 2-shot regimen. Deviating from the scientific recommendations would put us in uncharted territory. Why on earth would we want to do that?

Ramping up manufacturing is underway. 

Compromising the success of the vaccinations already done is not the answer.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Even after you’re vaccinated, and everyone around you is vaccinated, it’ll still be smart to socially distance and wear masks. There are too many unknowns and the data is still too new on what protections the vaccine will provide. 

So rolling out vaccinations at warp speed isn’t really necessary. It won’t, or it shouldn’t, change public behavior. We should all expect to see masks on everybody for a couple more years, at a minimum.


----------



## NoCoPilot

It’s 2021. The pandemic won’t be “over” in 2022 or maybe even 2023. Hopefully much reduced... but there are a lot of rural areas, abroad and at home, to get to before this bug is dead. If we can conquer a global pandemic in our three or four years it’ll be an amazing accomplishment. Remember, the global pandemic affects the whole world.


----------



## KenOC

"Tributes have been paid on social media in China commemorating a doctor who raised the alarm about the country's coronavirus outbreak, one year after he died with Covid-19.

"Thousands paid tribute to Dr. Li Wenliang ahead of the first anniversary of his death on 7 February 2020. He died after contracting Covid-19 while treating patients in Wuhan."

Li Wenliang: 'Wuhan whistleblower' remembered one year on - BBC News


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

NoCoPilot said:


> Remember, the global pandemic affects the whole world.


It has inflamed mental illness . I am a warrior for sanity .


----------



## pianozach

Tikoo Tuba said:


> It has inflamed mental illness. I am a warrior for sanity.


True.

I do tire of people blaming the psychological effects of the pandemic on the social distancing efforts rather than the virus itself.

Thanks for your sanity warrioring. Fight insanity.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> As more and more people are receiving their 1st dose of the mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) vaccines, the question of efficacy after one dose is becoming more important. Recent studies of the Pfizer indicate that some protection starts at about 12 days after the 1st dose and somewhere between 15 -21 days, it rises to 89%. Maximum protection after the 2nd dose of 95% occurs at about 7 days.
> 
> There is apparently little or no information on the protection of a single dose after 28 days.


Many vaccines are given in two doses because the second does enables the immune system to develop a more specific or longer lasting immunity. Skipping second doses to give more people a first does could give a short term benefit at the cost of a long term failure of the vaccine. We could find ourselves starting over in a year.

Even the two dose protocol has received scant testing, the vaccine has only existed for half a year. I think the smart thing is to follow the protocol which has had at east some basis in testing, and not give a billion people an untested vaccine protocol.


----------



## Strange Magic

pianozach said:


> True.
> 
> I do tire of people blaming the psychological effects of the pandemic on the social distancing efforts rather than the virus itself.
> 
> Thanks for your sanity warrioring. Fight insanity.


Could you clarify your thoughts on this? It seems to me that enforced social distancing, whether virus-induced or not (Prison? Exile in a strange land? Deaf? Blind? Other sorts of institutionalization?) can also be a powerful non-virus-related factor in triggering and sustaining malignant psychological effects.


----------



## pianozach

Strange Magic said:


> Could you clarify your thoughts on this? It seems to me that enforced social distancing, whether virus-induced or not (Prison? Exile in a strange land? Deaf? Blind? Other sorts of institutionalization?) can also be a powerful non-virus-related factor in triggering and sustaining malignant psychological effects.


Yes. "Enforced social distancing" will certainly have psychological effects. In this discussion we were talking about social distancing and its effects due to the current pandemic.

Of *course* "non-pandemic social distancing" _"(Prison? Exile in a strange land? Deaf? Blind? Other sorts of institutionalization?)"_ will have similar effects.

But that wasn't what we were discussing.


----------



## DaveM

Baron Scarpia said:


> Many vaccines are given in two doses because the second does enables the immune system to develop a more specific or longer lasting immunity. Skipping second doses to give more people a first does could give a short term benefit at the cost of a long term failure of the vaccine. We could find ourselves starting over in a year.
> 
> Even the two dose protocol has received scant testing, the vaccine has only existed for half a year. I think the smart thing is to follow the protocol which has had at east some basis in testing, and not give a billion people an untested vaccine protocol.


I understand what you're saying, but with the still very limited access to even the first dose of vaccine, following the optimal plan for the timing of the booster is not easy so if people have to wait longer for the 2nd dose, it is of interest to them whether, and how much, they might be protected. Incidentally, by far, most boosters of other vaccines don't occur in as little as 3-4 weeks.


----------



## Strange Magic

pianozach said:


> Yes. "Enforced social distancing" will certainly have psychological effects. In this discussion we were talking about social distancing and its effects due to the current pandemic.
> 
> Of *course* "non-pandemic social distancing" _"(Prison? Exile in a strange land? Deaf? Blind? Other sorts of institutionalization?)"_ will have similar effects.
> 
> But that wasn't what we were discussing.


I beg to differ. It seemed clear to me that you were drawing a distinction between the psychological effects of the social distancing incurred by the virus, and the psychological (and by inference the physiological) effects of the virus itself upon the human brain and psyche, and decrying the former: "I do tire of people blaming...."


----------



## KenOC

"Oxford-AstraZeneca's vaccine offers "minimal protection" against mild disease from the South Africa variant, scientists say early trials suggest… But Prof Sarah Gilbert, Oxford lead vaccine developer, said vaccines should still protect against severe disease.

"…Meanwhile, vaccine minister Nadhim Zahawi told the BBC's Andrew Marr that a booster in the autumn and annual vaccines could be required to combat variants."

Covid: Oxford jab offers less S Africa variant protection - BBC News


----------



## elgar's ghost

Good to read about the rate in which vaccinations are being given in the UK. Twinned with this is the good news that the number of COVID patients in hospital is at last starting to fall - there are now about 10,000 fewer people in hospital with COVID symptoms than there were about a month ago. The NHS deserves one hell of a break after being under immense pressure since the second spike (made worse by the so-called 'UK variant' which kicked in at the worst possible time). 

If the vaccination programme maintains its current pace then at least a million people from the secondary priority groups (those aged between 54 and 69 plus anyone aged between 16 and 64 with underlying health conditions) are going to get their first jab early. Keeping fingers crossed that there will be no manufacture/quality control/supply issues to undo the good work.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> Even after you're vaccinated, and everyone around you is vaccinated, it'll still be smart to socially distance and wear masks. There are too many unknowns and the data is still too new on what protections the vaccine will provide.
> 
> So rolling out vaccinations at warp speed isn't really necessary. It won't, or it shouldn't, change public behavior. We should all expect to see masks on everybody for a couple more years, at a minimum.


Yeah, good luck with that.


----------



## Jacck

BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine should work against virus variants: Study
https://www.politico.eu/article/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-should-work-against-virus-variants-study/


----------



## pianozach

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/07/health/south-africa-astrazeneca-vaccine-study/index.html

*CNN HEADLINE: South Africa pauses AstraZeneca vaccine rollout after study shows it offers less protection against variant*

During a briefing on Sunday, South Africa Minister of Health Dr. Zweli Mkhize said the hold would be temporary while scientists figure out how to most effectively deploy the *AstraZeneca* vaccine. Mkhize said South Africa *will* move forward with the deployment of vaccines made by *Pfizer/BioNTech* and *Johnson & Johnson*.


----------



## Jacck

New Israeli drug cured 29 of 30 moderate/serious COVID cases in days
https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-i...-to-serious-covid-cases-within-days-hospital/


----------



## KenOC

CVS pharmacy is giving free vaccinations in quite a few of its US stores. It opened up stores in California this morning. By the time I dragged myself out of bed, some the stores near me were already fully booked.

So I got into the electronic queue and watched other nearby stores become fully booked. After two hours my turn came and I booked my two appointments at a store about 20 miles down the road. Not too bad. My first jab will be on Sunday, and the second four weeks later (Moderna vaccine).

You must be 65 or older to book an appointment at a California CVS. Other states may vary.

COVID Vaccine (COVID-19 Immunization Updates) | CVS Pharmacy

And some more good news today: The Moderna vaccine seems quite effective against all the COVID variants -- so far.

Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine effective against emerging variants (news-medical.net)


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> CVS pharmacy is giving free vaccinations in quite a few of its US stores. It opened up stores in California this morning. By the time I dragged myself out of bed, some the stores near me were already fully booked.
> 
> So I got into the electronic queue and watched other nearby stores become fully booked. After two hours my turn came and I booked my two appointments at a store about 20 miles down the road. Not too bad. My first jab will be on Sunday, and the second four weeks later (Moderna vaccine).
> 
> You must be 65 or older to book an appointment at a California CVS. Other states may vary.
> 
> COVID Vaccine (COVID-19 Immunization Updates) | CVS Pharmacy
> 
> And some more good news today: The Moderna vaccine seems quite effective against all the COVID variants -- so far.
> 
> Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine effective against emerging variants (news-medical.net)


That's good news.

I'll probably still have to wait (not 65 yet), even though I'm on staff at the high school two days a week. Teachers weren't given a high priority yet. I'm not certified, just helping as a "specialist", so I'm not even sure if I'll be included if and when they include teachers.


----------



## KenOC

Update: After signing up for a CVS jab on Sunday, the County e-mailed me that I could get it at their Disneyland site Saturday (today) so I did. I mean nobody's using Disneyland right now, right?

The site was Disneyland's huge employee parking lot (Disneyland is of course closed now). Signage all over Anaheim led you there. Good parking, plenty of wheelchairs (which I needed) and hundreds of volunteers managing the people flows. My app't was listed as 2:15, and after all the long-distance hiking and checkpoints, got my first shot of Moderna at 2:39. Not bad!

Got home, cancelled my CVS app'ts, and found that my next jab was scheduled for the same time, same place, four weeks out. Overall, a very good experience and thanks to all those volunteers!


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Update: After signing up for a CVS jab on Sunday, the County e-mailed me that I could get it at their Disneyland site Saturday (today) so I did. I mean nobody's using Disneyland right now, right?
> 
> The site was Disneyland's huge employee parking lot (Disneyland is of course closed now). Signage all over Anaheim led you there. Good parking, plenty of wheelchairs (which I needed) and hundreds of volunteers managing the people flows. My app't was listed as 2:15, and after all the long-distance hiking and checkpoints, got my first shot of Moderna at 2:39. Not bad!
> 
> Got home, cancelled my CVS app'ts, and found that my next jab was scheduled for the same time, same place, four weeks out. Overall, a very good experience and thanks to all those volunteers!


Awesomeness.

The NFL has offered up all of their stadiums for covid vaccinations. Not that there's one anywhere near me, but that's OK.

Our local Senior Center is giving vaccinations. They, like Disneyland, are otherwise closed, although they do provide senior meals.


----------



## Ingélou

Taggart got the Pfizer jab from our local GP surgery 2 weeks ago, and I got the Oxford Astro-Zeneca jab this afternoon at a 'Park and Ride' centre near York. Great organisation and lovely friendly helpers at both places. 

I love that my computer spell-checker thought I meant 'Seneca' - well, maybe I did. It's best to be philosophical about these things.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Ingélou said:


> _Taggart got the Pfizer jab from our local GP surgery 2 weeks ago, and I got the Oxford Astro-Zeneca jab this afternoon at a 'Park and Ride' centre near York_. Great organisation and lovely friendly helpers at both places.
> 
> I love that my computer spell-checker thought I meant 'Seneca' - well, maybe I did. It's best to be philosophical about these things.


That's good. I'm not going to be indelicate by asking which category you both fell into but if either or both of you received your jabs earlier than originally scheduled then even better. I'm a little way down the pecking order right now but as soon as I'm offered one I will be in like Flynn.


----------



## Joe B

My wife and I go Tuesday before noon to get the first dose of the Moderna vaccine. CT opened up for our age group last Wednesday. It was impossible to book anything Wed or Thurs. Then, the nurse at my school told me that on Friday at 3:30 the CT Department of Health would be adding a slew of appointment times. Sure enough, we were both logged into our respective computers at 3:25. Nothing available. Then, at 3:30 there were suddenly dozens of times added with Tuesday being the first possible day. She gets her vaccine at 11:40, I get mine at 11:50. Glad my school nurse passed along the information she got from the Department of Health.

I've been teaching 'in person' the entire school year, worried about getting infected and bringing it home to my wife. Once we get the second shot, the sense of impending doom will, hopefully, diminish.


----------



## Merl

I'm still waiting and even as a 56 year old primary school teacher I'm still way down the pecking order.


----------



## Joe B

Merl said:


> I'm still waiting and even as a 56 year old primary school teacher I'm still way down the pecking order.


Being a teacher in my state doesn't mean a thing. They are strictly going by age. The CDC says schools should be the last thing to close and the first thing to reopen during times like these. You'd think they'd want to protect the teachers? But alas, I don't have to tell you how teachers are perceived by the public.


----------



## Ingélou

Merl said:


> I'm still waiting and even as a 56 year old primary school teacher I'm still way down the pecking order.


It's a horrible situation. I hope it will be your turn soon. :tiphat:


----------



## Merl

Joe B said:


> Being a teacher in my state doesn't mean a thing. They are strictly going by age. The CDC says schools should be the last thing to close and the first thing to reopen during times like these. You'd think they'd want to protect the teachers? But alas, I don't have to tell you how teachers are perceived by the public.


Ive been in school since January and I'm in every day. We get P1-3 kids back in en masse from next Monday and I've got all three year groups at some time next week. But hey, I'm fine cos kids don't get it.! They may carry it and have the same percentage viral load as adults but teachers won't get it. Boris says so. Ffs.


----------



## Ingélou

elgars ghost said:


> That's good. I'm not going to be indelicate by asking which category you both fell into but if either or both of you received your jabs earlier than originally scheduled then even better. I'm a little way down the pecking order right now but as soon as I'm offered one I will be in like Flynn.


Not sooner than expected - in age order, and it's just become my turn. Okay - I'm in the 65-69 age group.  
John/ Taggart is a little older and so got his at the GP surgery but that's now been ordered to deal with the patients who need protection because of medical conditions, so I got mine at the local 'hub' after receiving a letter from the NHS. The letter booking system allows people to book their second vaccination, which is nice - though our local practice is very caring and well-organised and won't let anyone slip through the cracks.

I'm not quite sure why John got Pfizer & I got Oxford, but I was never going to quibble about which one we got.

The snowball is gathering speed, and I hope everyone will get their vaccination protection as soon as possible. xxx


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## senza sordino

Being a teacher here doesn't matter either. I'm a 55-year-old high school teacher. We've been back in school since June. Of course, we had the summer off, as a regularly scheduled break. I've been in school with teenagers uninterrupted since September. 

Unfortunately, Canada is not doing that well vaccinating its population compared with other countries. The last I heard was that we're about 37th on the list of vaccination rates. We have only just finished giving shots to people in long term care homes and health care workers. We begin giving shots to people in the general population over eighty next month. I'm not expecting my shot until the late spring / early summer.


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## KenOC

In the US, only Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently approved by the FDA. The J&J/Janssen vaccine is scheduled for FDA review on Feb. 26, and approval is expected with the first doses available in the first week of March.

That will be something of a game-changer, since it's a single-dose vaccine.


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## NoCoPilot

Fauci says 300m doses will be available by July 30.

Whether 300 million Americans are smart enough to get vaccinated is another question.


----------



## Pat Fairlea

Ingélou said:


> Not sooner than expected - in age order, and it's just become my turn. Okay - I'm in the 65-69 age group.
> John/ Taggart is a little older and so got his at the GP surgery but that's now been ordered to deal with the patients who need protection because of medical conditions, so I got mine at the local 'hub' after receiving a letter from the NHS. The letter booking system allows people to book their second vaccination, which is nice - though our local practice is very caring and well-organised and won't let anyone slip through the cracks.
> 
> I'm not quite sure why John got Pfizer & I got Oxford, but I was never going to quibble about which one we got.
> 
> The snowball is gathering speed, and I hope everyone will get their vaccination protection as soon as possible. xxx


Glad to hear you have been vaccinated. Mrs Pat and I, both in the 65-9 group, both got Pfizered yesterday. Lovely people running a very efficient system without being officious. And an excuse to visit Skipton.


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## Open Book

Question about the 2-dose vaccines. Is there a time limit within which you must get the second dose?


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## DaveM

Open Book said:


> Question about the 2-dose vaccines. Is there a time limit within which you must get the second dose?


There is evidence sanctioned by the CDC that you can have the 2nd dose as late as 42 days after the 1st. I wouldn't be surprised if they find it could be even longer after, but I haven't heard of even anecdotal evidence supporting that.


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> Question about the 2-dose vaccines. Is there a time limit within which you must get the second dose?


The 2nd-dose issue is not very certain, but the recommendations are the timings that were used in trials. Longer or shorter intervals, I'd guess more or less OK (trust me, I once saw a doctor played on TV).

They're even planning trials mixing different vaccine between the first and second doses. That could have positive effects (or not...)


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## Mandryka

Open Book said:


> Question about the 2-dose vaccines. Is there a time limit within which you must get the second dose?


https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n326


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## adriesba

Some people I know are afraid of the covid vaccines, and I worry that they might not get one. 


They've brought up a few things such as a nurse they know who doesn't think the vaccines have been tested enough, some other person who told them some information that I think was either nonsense or got lost in delivery, and a case where one person they know got the first dose of one of the vaccines and had an allergic reaction that prompted this person's doctor to advise against getting the second dose. 


I've tried explaining to them that the vaccines have gone through major testing and that the side effects which aren't always going to occur are not as bad as getting covid. But overall their reaction to what I have explained to them is not promising. It seems almost like they think I'm being ridiculous but just not saying it.


Overall, I don't want to nag them to the point of turning them off from ever getting one of the vaccines or act bossy or demeaning to the point of making it feel as if their choices are being disrespected, but how can I approach this to try to address their concerns and lessen their worries? Some of them are eligible now to get a vaccine if they wanted to. But some of them I suspect are not the most cautious of people either.


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## Roger Knox

adriesba said:


> Some people I know are afraid of the covid vaccines, and I worry that they might not get one. ... Overall, I don't want to nag them to the point of turning them off from ever getting one of the vaccines or act bossy or demeaning to the point of making it feel as if their choices are being disrespected, but how can I approach this to try to address their concerns and lessen their worries? Some of them are eligible now to get a vaccine if they wanted to. But some of them I suspect are not the most cautious of people either.


Your concern for others is evident and admirable. But if you suspect some of these people are not cautious, then taking care of your own well-being comes first, e.g. distancing, mask, handwashing, avoiding the people altogether if being near them makes you feel uneasy. It might be more effective to provide them with high-quality easy-to-read pamphlets, articles, or web addresses that to try to convince them verbally to get vaccinated. That convincing should be done by a doctor or other authorized health care professional who can answer their questions about side effects and allergies. I've found that anti-vaccine people don't want to back down even when wrong -- they need to save face. I've seen people come around gradually, though, given an information stream to counter the naysayers. *I am no health care professional* but see vaccination as a reasonable choice and wish I could get it myself -- Canada has been way too slow on this.


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## elgar's ghost

BBC News says a third of all social care staff in England have not been vaccinated despite being in one of the first-tier priority groups. Assuming they have been given the chance of vaccination I would like to know their justification for refusal bearing in mind the sector they work in.


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## adriesba

Roger Knox said:


> Your concern for others is evident and admirable. But if you suspect some of these people are not cautious, then taking care of your own well-being comes first, e.g. distancing, mask, handwashing, avoiding the people altogether if being near them makes you feel uneasy. It might be more effective to provide them with high-quality easy-to-read pamphlets, articles, or web addresses that to try to convince them verbally to get vaccinated. That convincing should be done by a doctor or other authorized health care professional who can answer their questions about side effects and allergies. I've found that anti-vaccine people don't want to back down even when wrong -- they need to save face. I've seen people come around gradually, though, given an information stream to counter the naysayers. *I am no health care professional* but see vaccination as a reasonable choice and wish I could get it myself -- Canada has been way too slow on this.


To clarify, these aren't anti-vax people that I'm talking about, but the covid vaccines have them worried because they are new and there are side effects they have heard about. I would love for them to talk to a doctor about this as that would likely clear things up for them and there is a limit to what anyone else can explain to them. My concern is that they will already have made up their minds to not get one before they even consider talking to a doctor about it and that they may get covid through careless behaviors.


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## KenOC

Scare story: Oregon reports four Covid-19 cases in persons who received their second dose over two weeks prior. However, since Oregon has done “at least” 677,000 vaccinations, finding only four cases is probably more a cause for celebration than worry. In any event, symptoms in the four cases range from asymptomatic to mild, so it’s likely the vaccine is doing its job, if not perfectly.

Meanwhile, Israel reports that the Pfizer vaccine has been given to 600,000 people and that the efficacy rate is as advertised, 94%. No word on how that was measured but again, seems like good news.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Scare story: Oregon reports four Covid-19 cases in persons who received their second dose over two weeks prior. However, since Oregon has done "at least" 677,000 vaccinations, finding only four cases is probably more a cause for celebration than worry. In any event, symptoms in the four cases range from asymptomatic to mild, so it's likely the vaccine is doing its job, if not perfectly.
> 
> Meanwhile, Israel reports that the Pfizer vaccine has been given to 600,000 people and that the efficacy rate is as advertised, 94%. No word on how that was measured but again, seems like good news.


It's the 'asymptomatic to mild' in those 4 cases that reassures me because I'm hoping for the vaccine to perform, at least, like the flu vaccine where you have a good chance of avoiding a really bad case.


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## pianozach

Here's some exciting news. Hope it stands up to scrutiny.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...NtP7jbPK29mzfz0p-NFJMPEupJLEpTbKwNqmDzRiuZAm0

*"Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine"*

So, they're saying you can still contract the virus, but it won't make you sick. That's remarkable.


----------



## EdwardBast

adriesba said:


> Some people I know are afraid of the covid vaccines, and I worry that they might not get one.


You can help by getting vaccinated yourself (I know, could be a while) and then talking to them about it afterward. It helps to see people one knows and trusts going first.


----------



## adriesba

EdwardBast said:


> You can help by getting vaccinated yourself (I know, could be a while) and then talking to them about it afterward. It helps to see people one knows and trusts going first.


Yes, I was thinking about that. Of course I'm low priority for distribution of the vaccines, so that will be awhile.


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## Jacck

Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/europe


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## eljr

adriesba said:


> Yes, I was thinking about that. Of course I'm low priority for distribution of the vaccines, so that will be awhile.


You could always be like my neighbors and lie about your eligibility.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

One thing that I find dispiriting - with effectiveness at least for the Pfizer vaccine to be >90%, and even if it doesn't prevent disease, it still prevents severe disease and death very effectively, we are still talking about nothing approaching normality until, minimum, late December. Even with the prediction that we would have vaccine available for the general public by July. So what the hell are we getting vaccinated for if it isn't anticipated to impact any of this shutdown? What is the point of any of this? First we were told "three weeks to flatten the curve." Then we were thrown into this shutdown mentality . . . until we could get a vaccine. Now we have not one, but multiple vaccines, and vaccinating more than 1 million people per day. And now the experts proclaim that we may have at least another full year of this shutdown and masking. I get that knowledge of this has changed, and so have predictions. But there has to be a point where we recognize the damage we are doing just might exceed the damage of the virus. I mean, there are school systems that have been shut down for a year now, and some predicting not even going back even this coming fall - and unions talking about refusing to let teachers go back until every school has been retrofitted with new air handling systems. Even though the science shows that spread within schools is negligible, and in many cases, kids have a higher risk of catching the virus being out of school than they would were they in school - not to mention the critical loss of meaningful education. As a parent who has experienced this firsthand, it is hell on these kids, and on families.


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## DaveM

It occurs to me that people can see the pandemic and related vaccine availability at the moment as a glass half empty or a glass half full. Personally, compared to where we were a year ago, I see it as a half glass full. It is not a mystery that it is going to take many months to vaccinate enough people to return life to normal. But, for each individual and those closest to him/her, who get fully vaccinated, life can change substantially well before the Fall. 

From the way things are at the moment, I know that likely before May or June, I’ll be able to hug members of my family for the first time in a year and we’ll be able to have dinner together. For me, that is the very obvious reason for getting vaccinated since it will move life towards normal. I don’t know why anyone would see it differently.


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## eljr

I don't foresee the current vaccine as ending the health crisis, period. 

It will do no more than contribute to the battle. 

I think the expectation that this round of vaccinations are a cure is unrealistic. 

We will need both a booster shot and new strains added to the boosters before we are out of this mess. 

I think we are looking at 5 years, on year is behind us.


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## eljr

DaveM said:


> It occurs to me that people can see the pandemic and related vaccine availability at the moment as a glass half empty or a glass half full. Personally, compared to where we were a year ago, I see it as a half glass full. It is not a mystery that it is going to take many months to vaccinate enough people to return life to normal. But, for each individual and those closest to him/her, who get fully vaccinated, life can change substantially well before the Fall.
> 
> From the way things are at the moment, I know that likely before May or June, I'll be able to hug members of my family for the first time in a year and we'll be able to have dinner together. For me, that is the very obvious reason for getting vaccinated since it will move life towards normal. I don't know why anyone would see it differently.


I agree but I do not foresee the vaccine doing more than lowering the risk of infection to acceptable levels not to pre pandemic levels.

Also, not to quibble, but I don't look forward to hugging and dinning with loved ones before July.


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## DaveM

eljr said:


> I agree but I do not foresee the vaccine doing more than lowering the risk of infection to acceptable levels not to pre pandemic levels.


Nor do I. This is likely going to end up resulting in an annual vaccine program (hopefully not more frequently) just as with the flu and there will be vaccine deniers and those who say, 'I don't need it. I never get sick.' so there will continue to be cases, but I'm optimistic that the pandemic as we know it, will come to an end.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> I think this a silly thing to have been said. (I take your word that it was)
> 
> I don't foresee the current vaccine as ending the health crisis, period.
> 
> It will do no more than contribute to the battle.
> 
> I think your expectation that this round of vaccinations are a cure is unrealistic.
> 
> We will need both a booster shot and new strains added to the boosters before we are out of this mess.
> 
> I think we are looking at 5 years, on year is behind us.


I think that is unrealistic. We don't have a perfect vaccine for the flu - but even when it doesn't fully protect from catching it, it prevents serious illness, and that is what we are looking at here. And that allows us to function normally.

I don't view vaccinations as a cure. I view them as preventatives. Cures may or may not come in time - we have only just recently gotten a cure for hepatitis C. We still don't have a cure or a vaccine for HIV. But we have treatments that make it manageable. That is where I think we are going with this.

I think a 5-year projection is unrealistic in the extreme. I think this vaccine, even against variants, is going to significantly curtail deaths and likely get them down into the range we see with the flu, and cases will be manageable - bear in mind that most people who catch this virus already didn't need hospitalization, and experienced nothing more than basic cold/flu symptoms. That kind of illness we can live with. We live with the flu. We live with colds. We live with quite a few respiratory infections that don't kill us. Maybe we will need boosters. Maybe this vaccine will be like the flu - new shot every year. But this has been catastrophic, and I think trying to keep lockdowns even once a critical mass has been vaccinated is going to cause a major backlash, even from those who have been willing to lockdown up until now. Because it is unsustainable. People need to work. Not everybody can work from a computer at home. And kids need to go to school. What happens to high school juniors and seniors, in that critical phase, trying to get into college? Or special needs kids who need the extra programs that schools offer? Why have they been deriding home schooled children - hell, in Germany, you could even be thrown in jail for home schooling prior to this - and now that point isn't even brought up?

If we aren't significantly on our way to reopening by Christmas, I think there is going to be hell to pay. And no covering by the media will be able to mask it.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I think that is unrealistic. We don't have a perfect vaccine for the flu - but even when it doesn't fully protect from catching it, it prevents serious illness, and that is what we are looking at here. And that allows us to function normally.
> 
> I don't view vaccinations as a cure. I view them as preventatives. Cures may or may not come in time - we have only just recently gotten a cure for hepatitis C. We still don't have a cure or a vaccine for HIV. But we have treatments that make it manageable. That is where I think we are going with this.
> 
> I think a 5-year projection is unrealistic in the extreme. I think this vaccine, even against variants, is going to significantly curtail deaths and likely get them down into the range we see with the flu, and cases will be manageable - bear in mind that most people who catch this virus already didn't need hospitalization, and experienced nothing more than basic cold/flu symptoms. That kind of illness we can live with. We live with the flu. We live with colds. We live with quite a few respiratory infections that don't kill us. Maybe we will need boosters. Maybe this vaccine will be like the flu - new shot every year. But this has been catastrophic, and I think trying to keep lockdowns even once a critical mass has been vaccinated is going to cause a major backlash, even from those who have been willing to lockdown up until now. Because it is unsustainable. People need to work. Not everybody can work from a computer at home. And kids need to go to school. What happens to high school juniors and seniors, in that critical phase, trying to get into college? Or special needs kids who need the extra programs that schools offer? Why have they been deriding home schooled children - hell, in Germany, you could even be thrown in jail for home schooling prior to this - and now that point isn't even brought up?
> 
> If we aren't significantly on our way to reopening by Christmas, I think there is going to be hell to pay. And no *covering by the media* will be able to mask it.


You pretty much agreed with me while saying you disagreed.

In any event, we sort of agree is how I read this.

Peace


----------



## mmsbls

The thread has stayed reasonably free of contentious politics for awhile now. The last several pages contain a flurry of politically based posts along with replies. The thread is closed while we decide how to proceed and which posts to keep.


----------



## mmsbls

We have removed many political posts and replies. Please do not post political comments. I know some believe that this topic cannot be discussed without politics. If you believe that, please don't post here. There are plenty of issues surrounding the vaccine that are not political. Please focus on those and leave politicians and political parties or ideologies out of the discussion.

The thread is now open.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Alright, then. Let me ask this in a way that does not mention any politicians or anything.

Assume a vaccination timeline that has all critical subjects vaccinated by summer, and vaccinations are available to the general public by July, and assume the 3 weeks or whatever it is between doses for the 2 dose regime. Presumably by that point, we would have vaccinated most of those in the highest risk group who want it (can't do anything about those who don't) and so now we are only dealing with those with general or low risk. 

So what are the criteria for easing the lockdown? Deaths below a certain threshold? Cases below a certain threshold? Hospitalizations below a certain threshold?

I think infections are going to be with us a while - possibly endemic. But based on the data we have for the vaccines (and I just saw something about the Pfizer vaccine? being >90% effective after 3 weeks with only a single dose), I think this may drop to being the equivalent of the flu, if not less (I don't know what the typical effectiveness for the flu is, but my gut tells me it is much lower than 90%). And we don't shut down anything for the flu. I think cases is too stringent a criteria, because that includes everything from loss of taste/smell (my aunt tested positive and that is the only symptom she ever had) to headaches and mild cold/allergy symptoms (my teenage son tested positive and those were the worst of his symptoms), to full on hospitalization and death. You certainly wouldn't shut down everything for a bunch of people with temporary loss of taste/smell or minor cold symptoms.

Most of those dying are in those high risk groups - older, secondary chronic conditions (obesity, heart disease, diabetes). 

I don't think it is realistic to keep anything shutdown past late summer. I think that is demanding a standard that will be impossible and impractical and unnecessary.


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## NoCoPilot

Are you in lockdown? I'm certainly not. I can go anywhere I want, I can even eat indoors at restaurants if I choose to.

But I choose not to. It's a risk that's not necessary, it's a luxury I'm willing to give up in order to maximize my safety. I still wear a mask everywhere and practice social distancing, because it's the smart and considerate thing to do. I expect that'll continue after I get vaccinated, and maybe for the next 3-5 years. It's not that much of a burden.


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## NoCoPilot

I read somewhere that something like 90% of the workers who started working from home would prefer to continue working from home after the pandemic. As a telecommuter myself the last ten years of my career, I certainly concur.

"Normal" isn't what it used to be. There have been permanent societal changes due to this virus, and a lot of things aren't going to be exactly the same ever again.

The goal isn't normal. The goal is a functioning, and SAFE, community.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

I'm glad it is so pleasant for you. My kids are in limited school schedule. Restaurants already working on very slim margins are having a hard time surviving with limiting their occupancy. Not every job can be done from a computer in their home, as grocery store workers, plumbers, construction workers, etc. Will tell you. 

My father in law was hospitalized for cancer surgery and my wife couldn't visit him. My mother was hospitalized for kidney problems and we couldn't see her. My church meetings have restricted attendance requirements. I travel for my work and am sick of wearing a mask all day when I travel by plane. 

So again, great that your job let's you sit behind a computer all day. But maybe start showing some empathy for those who can't.


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## DaveM

Comparisons with Covid-19 and the flu don’t make any sense when it comes to deciding when to open the country (USA) up. In 2019, daily deaths from the flu were in the realm of 60/day. As we speak, the pandemic is still killing over 2000/day. And though the numbers are dropping, it is misleading because much of it is due to recovery from the super-spreader holiday events.

Anecdotal stories about how mild the disease has been with family members or friends does not mirror everyone’s experience. There continue to be some severe long-term consequences of getting Covid-19. There is also evidence that some people may have permanently lost their sense of smell and taste. That’s not a small quality of life consequence.

As far as opening schools is concerned, I’m optimistic that that will occur over the next few months particularly if teachers can get vaccinated, something that I think should have been a priority in the first place.


----------



## NoCoPilot

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I travel for my work and am sick of wearing a mask all day when I travel by plane.


But you do it, because you're not a Karen, right?

I'm sorry you have been inconvenienced by the worldwide pandemic. However it would be far more productive to start rearranging things in your life, as many as you can, to adjust to the new normal. Don't curse the darkness; light a candle.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> ..Not every job can be done from a computer in their home, as grocery store workers, plumbers, construction workers, etc. Will tell you. .


Grocery store workers have been virtually fully employed since the beginning of the pandemic. The need for plumbers has continued albeit perhaps not at full level. A lot of construction still continues. Even minor construction has continued given that Lowe's and Home Depot never shut down and, from what I've seen, are busy.

I get your point, but those aren't the best examples to make it.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> But you do it, because you're not a Karen, right?
> 
> I'm sorry you have been inconvenienced by the worldwide pandemic. However it would be far more productive to start rearranging things in your life, as many as you can, to adjust to the new normal. Don't curse the darkness; light a candle.


And, pray tell, what do you define a Karen as? Because the Karens are the ones who yell at people who don't mask.

You can't empathize that most people don't want to go through this for another 5 years? YOu think this is sustainable, even with a vaccine? Do you have no faith in the vaccine? And this new normal, including increased kids failing in schools and increased suicides - this is what I should adjust to?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Grocery store workers have been virtually fully employed since the beginning of the pandemic. The need for plumbers has continued albeit perhaps not at full level. A lot of construction still continues. Even minor construction has continued given that Lowe's and Home Depot never shut down.
> 
> I get your point, but those aren't the best examples to make it.


And those people do just fine. So why should everybody else remain in lockdown once we have vaccinated the most at risk?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> I read somewhere that something like 90% of the workers who started working from home would prefer to continue working from home after the pandemic. As a telecommuter myself the last ten years of my career, I certainly concur.
> 
> "Normal" isn't what it used to be. There have been permanent societal changes due to this virus, and a lot of things aren't going to be exactly the same ever again.
> 
> The goal isn't normal. *The goal is a functioning, and SAFE, community.*


A lot of truly horrible things have been committed under the auspices of keeping people "SAFE." As the old adage goes, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. As you may recall, Robespierre headed the Committee of Public Safety. A lot of bad stuff - segregation, punishing gay people, etc., was covered by a veneer of keeping people safe.


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## NoCoPilot

I'm reading Obama's new book "A Promised Land," and in it he muses on the different policies of the different parties. Democrats, especially after the Second World War, enacted lots of legislation that created and sustained a burgeoning middle class. This led to the longest economic period of growth in our nation's history.

But it was an anomaly in history. Throughout most of mankind's existence, and in most counties in the world today, there are two classes of people, not three: the ultra-wealthy, and the ultra-poor.

Somebody said, you can judge a society by how it treats its least-fortunate citizens. By that measure, America has been (until recently) pretty exceptional.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

> There are plenty of issues surrounding the vaccine that are not political. Please focus on those and leave politicians and political parties or ideologies out of the discussion


No politics.

And this is why we can't let this become the new normal.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/student-suicides-nevada-coronavirus.html


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## NoCoPilot

I dunno. Kids have been finding reasons to commit suicide since Shakespeare’s time. It’s a stressful time of life.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

And an increase doesn't concern you? That seems rather callous. We are talking about trading the lives of youth for what? Protection against a virus that doesn't have a huge impact on them and has a >95% survival rate? As a father of teens, I'm not particularly favorable to your "whatever, kids kill themselves" attitude.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I don't know what the typical effectiveness for the flu is.


It is barely above 50% most years.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> So what are the criteria for easing the lockdown? Deaths below a certain threshold? Cases below a certain threshold? Hospitalizations below a certain threshold?


Sadly, their are 50 different answers to this. Here in NY we have great communication on this from our governor. It is tied to the infection rate and hospitalization rate.

Our lockdowns are easing from the holiday spike as we speak.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Exactly, then. In any given year, we make an educated guess about the flu vaccine, knowing full well there may be other variants out there that it won't be as effective against. And we deal with maybe 50% effectiveness. And we live normal lives.

I refuse to believe that we need another year of this hell with multiple vaccines, two of which are highly effective at preventing infection, and even more effective at preventing severe infection and death.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My father in law was hospitalized for cancer surgery and my wife couldn't visit him. My mother was hospitalized for kidney problems and we couldn't see her. My church meetings have restricted attendance requirements. I travel for my work and am sick of wearing a mask all day when I travel by plane.


I doubt any of these things will change for the next 24 months at least. hope I am wrong.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> Sadly, their are 50 different answers to this. *Here in NY we have great communication on this from our governor*. It is tied to the infection rate and hospitalization rate.
> 
> Our lockdowns are easing from the holiday spike as we speak.


That isn't what is currently in the news but we aren't allowed to talk about that.


----------



## eljr

DaveM said:


> teachers can get vaccinated, something that I think should have been a priority in the first place..


Why? Or should I ask, who would you have not given it to so teachers could get it? Over 75 year old? Police? Firemen? Hospital workers?

See the problem?

Most folks I know over 75 still can't get the vaccine.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> And, pray tell, what do you define a Karen as? Because the Karens are the ones who yell at people who don't mask.


In my world, the Karens are those that complain about wearing a simple mask.
Interesting, isn't it? We all have our own perspective.












Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> You can't empathize that most people don't want to go through this for another 5 years? YOu think this is sustainable, even with a vaccine? Do you have no faith in the vaccine? And this new normal, including increased kids failing in schools and increased suicides - this is what I should adjust to?


To answer all your questions, in order:

What makes you think anyone "wants" to go through this for 5 years?

People have lived under all kinds of conditions to survive, we adapt. Time is change. Yes, living as we are is very sustainable.

I have "faith" in nothing. If science shows that the vaccine is effective we can get back to a less restrictive lifestyle. We don't know the answer yet. Especially given mutations.

and yes, life comes before grades. If suicides begin to outpace deaths from COVID then it is time to consider opening up and accepting the cOVID death rate, Until then, we will work to minimize suicides.

So, what you should be adjusting to is life with COVId until there is life without COVID.

Peace


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

It should have always been prioritized by Frontline Healthcare workers and then by age. Everything else complicates.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> And those people do just fine. So why should everybody else remain in lockdown once we have vaccinated the most at risk?


The idea of the lockdowns are to save lives by keeping hospitals from becoming overrun.

So it's not lockdown or open, it is partial opening to keep the crisis manageable.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> A lot of truly horrible things have been committed under the auspices of keeping people "SAFE." As the old adage goes, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. As you may recall, Robespierre headed the Committee of Public Safety. A lot of bad stuff - segregation, punishing gay people, etc., was covered by a veneer of keeping people safe.


and IF bad happens from striving for good, we will address it.


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## eljr

NoCoPilot said:


> lots of legislation that created and sustained a burgeoning middle class. This led to the longest economic period of growth in our nation's history..


what was MOST responsible for the unprecedented economic growth post WW2 was simply that our infrastructure had not been destroyed by the war as other developed countries had been.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> No politics.
> 
> And this is why we can't let this become the new normal.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/student-suicides-nevada-coronavirus.html


I don't understand how your submitted link pertains to the quoted post?????


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> And an increase doesn't concern you? That seems rather callous. We are talking about trading the lives of youth for what? Protection against a virus that doesn't have a huge impact on them and has a >95% survival rate? As a father of teens, I'm not particularly favorable to your "whatever, kids kill themselves" attitude.


I already addressed this, see above.

Seems to me you simply have little tolerance for inconvenience, as such you seem to ignore the realities of this pandemic. At least that is the impression I receive.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I refuse to believe that we need another year of this hell with multiple vaccines, two of which are highly effective at preventing infection, and even more effective at preventing severe infection and death.


Your stubbornness will not alter the realities.

This is not a flu, your comparisons are a logical fallacy.


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## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Exactly, then. In any given year, we make an educated guess about the flu vaccine, knowing full well there may be other variants out there that it won't be as effective against. And we deal with maybe 50% effectiveness. And we live normal lives.
> 
> I refuse to believe that we need another year of this hell with multiple vaccines, two of which are highly effective at preventing infection, and even more effective at preventing severe infection and death.


Why do you keep making comparisons to flu? The lack of equivalence has been pointed out to you over and over, yet you keep repeating it. You're not getting it from reliable medical sources.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> That isn't what is currently in the news but we aren't allowed to talk about that.


I am a numbers guy. We went from over a 20% infection rate in Manhattan to under 3%. This was done through the coupling of great communication and lockdowns. It was a sucess story. The numbers say so not me. I simply acknowledge it.


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## DaveM

eljr said:


> Why? Or should I ask, who would you have not given it to so teachers could get it? Over 75 year old? Police? Firemen? Hospital workers?
> 
> See the problem?
> 
> Most folks I know over 75 still can't get the vaccine.


Point taken. Perhaps I'm should have said that given the extreme pressure to reopen schools, I think that teachers have to be given more priority than previously if schools are to reopen. Obviously, the ability to do that varies within the various states.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> and IF bad happens from striving for good, we will address it.


Assurances rarely help protect from abuses.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> Your stubbornness will not alter the realities.
> 
> This is not a flu, your comparisons are a logical fallacy.


I have not said it is a flu. I said that with as effective as these vaccines appear to be, I believe it will end this as a crisis and turn it into a health situation not unlike the flu, for which we don't enforce draconian measures, mandate mask wearing and require social distancing of society at large.

We managed smallpox down with a very effective vaccine. Same with polio, measles, mumps, rubella, whooping cough. Nobody is afraid to let their kids go swimming in pools anymore. Not because the virus changed. But because our measures against it did. Same thing here.


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## eljr

DaveM said:


> Point taken. Perhaps I'm should have said that given the extreme pressure to reopen schools, I think that teachers have to be given more priority than previously if schools are to reopen. Obviously, the ability to do that varies within the various states.


IMHO, it is already too late. The only way to give teachers priority now is to allow them to go ahead of the people who have already been told they are next.

We had a year to get this right. We failed miserably. That is the bottom line.

As to teachers, are not most youngish? Less vulnerable?


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Point taken. Perhaps I'm should have said that given the extreme pressure to reopen schools, I think that teachers have to be given more priority than previously if schools are to reopen. Obviously, the ability to do that varies within the various states.


But the data already shows that spread within schools is much lower than in the community itself. So it stands to reason that they would be safer in schools. They even have contract tracing data from Spain that demonstrates this - minimal, if any, spreading as resulting from children returning to schools. I have yet to see the data presented that shows that teachers must be vaccinated before they can return to in person teaching. That certainly isn't what Fauci has said, and the current head of the CDC said the same thing, back when she was a Harvard professor asked about this issue.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Why do you keep making comparisons to flu? The lack of equivalence has been pointed out to you over and over, yet you keep repeating it. You're not getting it from reliable medical sources.


Because it is also a respiratory infection, and the last such that caused a pandemic on the scale that we are seeing now. Presumably transmission is going to be very similar between the two, given that they are both respiratory infections. My point is that we have a better vaccine for COVID, it seems, than we have for the flu - multiple vaccines, in fact. Why shouldn't these vaccines for COVID allow us to return to normal? I'm not comparing them in any other way, so quit accusing me of that. I know they are different viruses. Enough of that obtuseness in thinking I don't understand the difference. I know the mortality rate is higher for COVID. But the vaccine is also better for COVID. And you yourself say that not only is it very effective at preventing infection, but even where it fails there (perhaps with variants), it still significantly decreases morbidity and mortality. So I see no reason why this virus can't be controlled by vaccine in the same way that the flu is controlled by vaccine.


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## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> But the data already shows that spread within schools is much lower than in the community itself. So it stands to reason that they would be safer in schools. They even have contract tracing data from Spain that demonstrates this - minimal, if any, spreading as resulting from children returning to schools. I have yet to see the data presented that shows that teachers must be vaccinated before they can return to in person teaching. That certainly isn't what Fauci has said, and the current head of the CDC said the same thing, back when she was a Harvard professor asked about this issue.


If you listen closely to what the head of the CDC and Fauci are saying, it is not clear to any individual school district and it's teachers whether the information refers to them. The message is that _optimally_ schools can reopen without teachers being vaccinated if they meet a set of requirements which the majority of districts can't yet meet. In a select few districts that have been able to open under controlled circumstances, the data has shown low spread of the virus.

To see the situation with some perspective, look at the Los Angeles County situation: Does anyone think that LA Unified schools can reopen safely with their extremely high minority and poverty-level students? On the other hand, the Long Beach Unified has reopened K-5 after all teachers were given the opportunity to be vaccinated.

The overall answer is beyond my pay grade, but my sense is that federal experts are struggling to come up with a standard solution in a country with so many non-standard circumstances. It seems to me that teachers could be vaccinated sooner than it would take for all schools to have the sort of ventilation-related and other changes that would be required.

When it comes to the teachers themselves, I sympathize with the challenge they face. I picture a situation where an unvaccinated 50 year old teacher with diabetes during a 3rd grade class has a 9 year kid all of a sudden start coughing and is found to have a fever. Is it a cold, the flu or Covid? Would worry me. And that could happen several times in a given elementary school.


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## NoCoPilot

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I refuse to believe that we need another year of this hell with multiple vaccines, two of which are highly effective at preventing infection, and even more effective at preventing severe infection and death.


What you choose to believe, or refuse to believe, is of no consequence.

Follow the advice of the experts.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> If you listen closely to what the head of the CDC and Fauci are saying, it is not clear to any individual school district and it's teachers whether the information refers to them. The message is that _optimally_ schools can reopen without teachers being vaccinated if they meet a set of requirements which the majority of districts can't yet meet. In a select few districts that have been able to open under controlled circumstances, the data has shown low spread of the virus.
> 
> To see the situation with some perspective, look at the Los Angeles County situation: Does anyone think that LA Unified schools can reopen safely with their extremely high minority and poverty-level students? On the other hand, the Long Beach Unified has reopened K-5 after all teachers were given the opportunity to be vaccinated.
> 
> The overall answer is beyond my pay grade, but my sense is that federal experts are struggling to come up with a standard solution in a country with so many non-standard circumstances. It seems to me that teachers could be vaccinated sooner than it would take for all schools to have the sort of ventilation-related and other changes that would be required.
> 
> When it comes to the teachers themselves, I sympathize with the challenge they face. I picture a situation where an unvaccinated 50 year old teacher with diabetes during a 3rd grade class has a 9 year kid all of a sudden start coughing and is found to have a fever. Is it a cold, the flu or Covid? Would worry me. And that could happen several times in a given elementary school.


See, I'm not allowed to say on here why that new criteria has changed without getting banned. So I'll simply say that, no, I think that first paragraph of yours is moving goal posts and not based on science. I would compare it to the CDC opposing travel bans early on based on non-scientific reasons.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

NoCoPilot said:


> What you choose to believe, or refuse to believe, is of no consequence.
> 
> Follow the advice of the experts.


And those who say "kids have been killing themselves since the days of Shakespeare" when confronted with increased teen suicide rates?

And which experts?


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## adriesba

eljr said:


> Yes, living as we are is very sustainable.


I wouldn't say that. Unemployment has been high ever since this started, no?


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

adriesba said:


> I wouldn't say that. Unemployment has been high ever since this started, no?


And given the trillions that the government in the U.S. alone has paid out, and will pay out, to help sustain people during the lockdown, I really don't think that can be sustainable long term. Which is why this needs to work.


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## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Because it is also a respiratory infection, and the last such that caused a pandemic on the scale that we are seeing now. Presumably transmission is going to be very similar between the two, given that they are both respiratory infections. My point is that we have a better vaccine for COVID, it seems, than we have for the flu - multiple vaccines, in fact. Why shouldn't these vaccines for COVID allow us to return to normal? I'm not comparing them in any other way, so quit accusing me of that. I know they are different viruses. Enough of that obtuseness in thinking I don't understand the difference. I know the mortality rate is higher for COVID.


You get all defensive about your comparisons with the flu after just saying, _'Because it is also a respiratory infection, and the last such that caused a pandemic on the scale that we are seeing now. *Presumably transmission is going to be very similar between the two,* given that they are both respiratory infections.'_?

Covid is more transmissible/communicable than the flu. Covid is more lethal than the flu. Covid appears to mutate more quickly than the flu.

And then you say, '_
'I refuse to believe that we need another year of this hell with multiple vaccines, two of which are highly effective at preventing infection, and even more effective at preventing severe infection and death.'_

Who says there's going to be 'another year of this hell'?' In a year, schools and a lot of businesses will be open. That doesn't mean everything will be absolutely normal; this is a pandemic and isn't just going to end on your timeline no matter what you refuse to believe.

And then you say,
_'So I see no reason why this virus can't be controlled by vaccine in the same way that the flu is controlled by vaccine.'_

Again, you can't compare the two. We still don't know how well the vaccines will work over a year. With variants developing, vaccination may need to be more frequent. We also don't know whether people refusing to be vaccinated for Covid will have more consequences than with the flu.


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## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> See, I'm not allowed to say on here why that new criteria has changed without getting banned. So I'll simply say that, no, I think that first paragraph of yours is moving goal posts and not based on science. I would compare it to the CDC opposing travel bans early on based on non-scientific reasons.


I find there to be a lack of clarity as to what any individual school district is supposed to do. But a I trust that the current Covid task force is doing its best at the moment faced with a complex situation and that the information and guidance will improve before too long.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> You get all defensive about your comparisons with the flu after just saying, _'Because it is also a respiratory infection, and the last such that caused a pandemic on the scale that we are seeing now. *Presumably transmission is going to be very similar between the two,* given that they are both respiratory infections.'_?
> 
> Covid is more transmissible/communicable than the flu. Covid is more lethal than the flu. Covid appears to mutate more quickly than the flu.
> 
> And then you say, '_
> 'I refuse to believe that we need another year of this hell with multiple vaccines, two of which are highly effective at preventing infection, and even more effective at preventing severe infection and death.'_
> 
> Who says there's going to be 'another year of this hell'?' In a year, schools and a lot of businesses will be open. That doesn't mean everything will be absolutely normal; this is a pandemic and isn't just going to end on your timeline no matter what you refuse to believe.
> 
> And then you say,
> _'So I see no reason why this virus can't be controlled by vaccine in the same way that the flu is controlled by vaccine.'_
> 
> Again, you can't compare the two. We still don't know how well the vaccines will work over a year. With variants developing, vaccination may need to be more frequent. We also don't know whether people refusing to be vaccinated for Covid will have more consequences than with the flu.


I'm not a scientist. Maybe I have the terminology wrong, but when I say that transmission is going to be similar, I mean one person sneezes or breathes out virus, another breathes it in.

Who says there's going to be another year? I'm not allowed to say or I will be banned.

We may not know how well they will work over a year, but we know that right out of the gate the flu vaccine is nowhere near as effective as these, and we have to revaccinate every year. And I would think that they could redesign the vaccines for this based on dominant variants.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I find there to be a lack of clarity as to what any individual school district is supposed to do. But a I trust that the current Covid task force is doing its best at the moment faced with a complex situation and that the information and guidance will improve before too long.


I think that is putting unrealistic expectations and criteria on it - if you are waiting for the task force to give every individual school district in this country their own customized instructions for reopening, that is never going to come. Fauci and the CDC already said that kids can and should return to in person schooling, and we don't need to wait for teachers to be vaccinated. Scientific evidence shows that in person schooling is not a significant source of COVID transmission, and that transmission rates in schools - even in a place as densely populated as NYC - are lower than in the community at large.

If you have individual teachers that legitimately have a concern - age and health - then address those on a case by case basis. But waiting until some unrealistic level of risk management is achieved while kids are falling behind educationally and suicide rates are increasing is neither what the science suggests nor what rational humans should expect.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Presumably transmission is going to be very similar between the two, given that they are both respiratory infections. My point is that we have a better vaccine for COVID, it seems, than we have for the flu


Covid is not seasonal, Flu is. We had no vaccine for the 1918 flu.

It's a false equivalence. This is just fact.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> See, I'm not allowed to say on here why that new criteria has changed without getting banned. So I'll simply say that, no, I think that first paragraph of yours is moving goal posts and not based on science. I would compare it to the CDC opposing travel bans early on based on non-scientific reasons.


Wrong, you are not allowed to say because your contention is not based on fact nor science. You assume other factors are at play. 
Which, BTW, I reject.


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## eljr

adriesba said:


> I wouldn't say that. Unemployment has been high ever since this started, no?


My point was really that we are adaptable and that we can adapt to live a life different than we had pre COVID.

Also, bear in mind I said sustainable not flourish.

We can't assemble at sports events or concert halls but we can work and shop.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> And given the trillions that the government in the U.S. alone has paid out, and will pay out, to help sustain people during the lockdown, I really don't think that can be sustainable long term. Which is why* this needs to work.*


but it will

Just don't expect life to be "the same" nor it to be instantly transformed.

May I ask, what is it that you "need" now that shutdowns are stopping.

Personally, I can only think of "wants" I am sacrificing.

Maybe the gym is a need for me which I am doing without...


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> but it will
> 
> Just don't expect life to be "the same" nor it to be instantly transformed.
> 
> May I ask, what is it that you "need" now that shutdowns are stopping.
> 
> Personally, I can only think of "wants" I am sacrificing.
> 
> Maybe the gym is a need for me which I am doing without...


My kids need to get back to regular school. I have been told how essential an education is - surely that doesn't fall in the "wants" category.

I don't know what you are basing your predictions on. It seems to be all how this relates only to you.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> Wrong, you are not allowed to say because your contention is not based on fact nor science. You assume other factors are at play.
> Which, BTW, I reject.


Very clever of you - I'm not allowed to give my reasons. But since you don't know them, you can't state what they are based upon, so you don't even know what you are rejecting, so your objection to my statement is meaningless, unless you are saying you simply reject anything I say.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We may not know how well they will work over a year, but we know that right out of the gate the flu vaccine is nowhere near as effective as these, and we have to revaccinate every year. And I would think that they could redesign the vaccines for this based on dominant variants.


The flu vaccine is of no consequence to this discussion.

In sooooooo many ways.

peace


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Very clever of you - I'm not allowed to give my reasons. But since you don't know them, you can't state what they are based upon, so you don't even know what you are rejecting, so your objection to my statement is meaningless, unless you are saying you simply reject anything I say.


feel free to PM me, I am fin efor you to say whatever you like

I am curious, I have no idea what you might have in mind.

Peace


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My kids need to get back to regular school. I have been told how essential an education is - surely that doesn't fall in the "wants" category.
> 
> I don't know what you are basing your predictions on. It seems to be all how this relates only to you.


I do not think of attending school as something we need to sustain. (The word I used)

That said, are not most schools open? Our are.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> I do not think of attending school as some we need to sustain. (The word I used)
> 
> That said, are not most schools open? Our are.


Well as a parent of children - I think we need to sustain school for kids. And I have been told over and over how essential school is, especially at such critical ages.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> feel free to PM me, I am fin efor you to say whatever you like
> 
> I am curious, I have no idea what you might have in mind.
> 
> Peace


No thanks. Just curious why you said you rejected what I had in mind without knowing what it was.


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## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> No thanks. Just curious why you said you rejected what I had in mind without knowing what it was.


pm me or stop

you are the one walking a tight rope with the rules, not me

i stick to facts


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## Nereffid

This thread is closed again.


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