# The Weather Thread



## Taggart

Britons are well known for talking about the weather. 

Here's a thread for everybody, all over the world, to join in and talk about the weather where they are.


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## Taggart

Just been looking at the news about Storm Desmond. Amazing to see the scenes from Appleby, Kendal and Hawick. They're also saying that the worst is yet to come.


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## Flamme

Hmm pretty britich here...Foggy, rainy, slippery, wet..Some sun just so i cant defien it as a disaster...But no snow...


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## Sloe

It have been rain and storm the last days.
At least it is warm for being in december 8-10 degrees celsius outside.


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## SarahNorthman

It has been cold, dry, and sunny here. I am really wanting snow but.....well no luck yet. Its a shame.


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## TurnaboutVox

It's blowing a storm here - wild, wet, windy (even for Lancashire in December) and unseasonably mild. I'm just going outside for a bit to tether the cat down...


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## Weston

Taggart said:


> Just been looking at the news about Storm Desmond. Amazing to see the scenes from Appleby, Kendal and Hawick. They're also saying that the worst is yet to come.


Is it true what I think I heard on the excellent BBC 5 Live Science podcast that the UK has only this year started naming storms the way we in the US have? And does this mean this is the fourth big storm to come your way?


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## Wood

Weston said:


> Is it true what I think I heard on the excellent BBC 5 Live Science podcast that the UK has only this year started naming storms the way we in the US have? And does this mean this is the fourth big storm to come your way?


It appears so, but in the UK we only have weather fronts, as opposed to the amazing hurricanes you have in the US which cause loss of life and untold property damage.

I'm not sure who is responsible for instigating this silly naming thing, but I find it an embarrassment to be honest.

Good idea for a community thread though.


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## brotagonist

My favourite topic, right after classical music :lol:

I've had the blinds closed (to better view the monitor), but it would appear slightly overcast. The weather report indicates a present temperature of 4° and that is already nearly the day's anticipated high. Still, it has been a very pleasant debut to 'winter', with the snow almost all gone-and possibly even 2-digit temperatures predicted for later in the week! I don't recall even having had a day below perhaps -9° yet! Hooray for an end to cold and unwanted CO[SUB]2[/SUB] emissions from home heating


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## TxllxT

After a stormy & wet november + an extremely mild beginning of december (with the Dutch Sinterklaas / Santa Claus and Zwarte Piet / Black Peter blowing off the roofs) there *must* come this turn with the winds going through the north and a real frosty snowy winter setting in... Why we had otherwise all this fuzz about El Niño!


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## sospiro

Wood said:


> It appears so, but in the UK we only have weather fronts, as opposed to the amazing hurricanes you have in the US which cause loss of life and untold property damage.
> 
> I'm not sure who is responsible for instigating this silly naming thing, but I find it an embarrassment to be honest.
> 
> Good idea for a community thread though.


The Met office says that naming storms will help raise awareness of severe weather and ensure greater safety of the public.

Names


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## Wood

sospiro said:


> The Met office says that naming storms will help raise awareness of severe weather and ensure greater safety of the public.
> 
> Names


Interesting, I had no idea of this as I tend not to follow the mass media.

I'm concerned by this bit:

'T_o ensure we are in line with the US National Hurricane Centre naming convention, we are not going to include names which begin with the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z. This will maintain consistency for official storm naming in the North Atlantic.'
_
Why on Earth would we wish to limit the names of our 'storms' to those approved by the leftpondians? Also, when Britain was great, storms only occurred on the High Seas. To describe a bit of mild weather (& lets face it, these storms don't generally involve snow) that involves wind and rain as storms, is ridiculous, given that the predominant climate in the British Isles is wet and windy coming from the west.

Anyway, here it is currently 4 degrees, with winds of up to 60 mph forecast, though it is currently calm outside.


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## sospiro

Talking of hurricanes, those living in UK may remember Michael Fish's blunder






the next day ...


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## KenOC

Old men talking weather, remembered from the 1950s: "Never used to have this kind of weather. If it's not hot it's cold, if it's not cold it's hot. It's them atom bomb tests, I'm tellin' ya!" Weather remains uncertain, but people are often certain of its causes.

BTW upper 70s (Fahrenheit) and sunny here for the next few days. Where's that El Nino they promised us?


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## Ingélou

sospiro said:


> Talking of hurricanes, those living in UK may remember Michael Fish's blunder


I certainly do. We had just moved because Tag had a new job in a West London school. Our house sale had gone badly so we were staying in a tiny flat in Windsor while we looked for somewhere to buy, and we had a puppy, our first dog (an Airedale), that I used to walk in Windsor Great Park every morning.

We were so tired with our life circs that we slept through the whole thing. But the scene that met me & Tyke in the park - great trees rooted up and scattered - was astonishing. Actually, a woman died in Windsor during this storm because a hotel chimney collapsed into her bedroom.

I grant that we're lucky compared with other places that get violent hurricanes regularly, but we do have storms in the UK, you know...


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## hpowders

Down Tampa way, I am currently experiencing the prime weather season: from mid-November to mid-March: moderate temperatures:55 to 75 Fahrenheit, hardly any rain.

Down here Santa wears Bermuda shorts and it's fascinating to see the squirrels have thinner fur coats than the one's up north in New York where it gets so much colder in winter. Nature is so fascinating, how creatures adapt to the conditions.


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## KenOC

Most probably know this -- in the US, hurricanes used to be given women's names only. A few years back this was evidently deemed sexist, so now women's and men's names alternate. The US military has just been ordered to completely remove any restrictions on women in combat. "OK men...erm, men and women...we'll bivouac here. Sergeant, detail some troops to dig a latrine. No, make that two latrines..."


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## hpowders

When my writings become weather concerning, you can assume that I have grown quite bored with TC.


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## brotagonist

KenOC said:


> Most probably know this -- in the US, hurricanes used to be given women's names only. A few years back this was evidently deemed sexist, so now women's and men's names alternate. The US military has just been ordered to completely remove any restrictions on women in combat. "OK men...erm, men and women...we'll bivouac here. Sergeant, detail some troops to dig a latrine. No, make that two latrines..."


With both pink and blue toilet paper?


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## Pugg

Rotterdam ; The Netherlands , the winds are howling, streaming rain from time to time.


But l the house is warm and decorated


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## LHB

In good ol' Houston temperatures are just now starting to fall below 60F. The past week's weather has been really nice, so me and my dad have been able to get in a couple rounds before it gets too cold.


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## Vaneyes

"There's no bad weather for golf. Play away, gents."


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## sospiro

Ingélou said:


> I certainly do. We had just moved because Tag had a new job in a West London school. Our house sale had gone badly so we were staying in a tiny flat in Windsor while we looked for somewhere to buy, and we had a puppy, our first dog (an Airedale), that I used to walk in Windsor Great Park every morning.
> 
> We were so tired with our life circs that we slept through the whole thing. But the scene that met me & Tyke in the park - great trees rooted up and scattered - was astonishing. Actually, a woman died in Windsor during this storm because a hotel chimney collapsed into her bedroom.
> 
> I grant that we're lucky compared with other places that get violent hurricanes regularly, but we do have storms in the UK, you know...


Pleased you were OK but it must have been a frightening sight.

Fortunately, the Midlands wasn't affected at all.


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## Guest

LHB said:


> In good ol' Houston temperatures are just now starting to fall below 60F. The past week's weather has been really nice, so me and my dad have been able to get in a couple rounds before it gets too cold.


When it gets cold you stop drinking beer????


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## Dr Johnson

Ingélou said:


> I certainly do. We had just moved because Tag had a new job in a West London school. Our house sale had gone badly so we were staying in a tiny flat in Windsor while we looked for somewhere to buy, and we had a puppy, our first dog (an Airedale), that I used to walk in Windsor Great Park every morning.
> 
> We were so tired with our life circs that we slept through the whole thing. But the scene that met me & Tyke in the park - great trees rooted up and scattered - was astonishing. Actually, a woman died in Windsor during this storm because a hotel chimney collapsed into her bedroom.
> 
> I grant that we're lucky compared with other places that get violent hurricanes regularly, but we do have storms in the UK, you know...


I was living in a bedsit near Lancaster Gate at the time of the great storm.

I lay in bed listening to it.


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## Guest

1987 - living in Kent and school closed for a couple of days due to Great Storm.
2005 - living in rural Cumbria and couldn't get to work due to floods and lost electricity for 4 days.
2009 - driving to conference of headteachers, made it through some very large flood 'puddles' and was last to arrive at the hotel - the police shut the road behind me.
2015 - slight leaks in roof and garage due to torrential rain - need to get these fixed in spring; power off for an hour this morning, but now back on. At least three of the schools for which I am "responsible" will be closed tomorrow due to flooding/leaking roofs.

Sun now shining protesting innocence.


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## TxllxT

Normally, 'normally' we have in the autumn on our North Sea island lots of wind & rain, but also lots of sunny spells with lovely opportunities for beach walks. This 2015 autumn however the weather just doesn't seem to quiet down anymore. Our farmlands are soaked wet like never before...


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## Kivimees

Storms every second day for about a week now. Grateful for living inland.


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## Ingélou

On a dog forum that I belong to, a woman who lives in Cumbria has been posting. She probably stayed awake all last night worrying about nearby flooding - a roof had been ripped off a barn close by - but she escaped, albeit with a huge hole gouged in the road and local bridges washed away. It has stopped raining but water will be running off the hills for some time so there'll still be trouble. The city of Carlisle, 20 miles away from her, is 'awash', she says, & on the BBC it says that thousands of homes in the North of England and in Scotland have been left without electric power.

Here are some pictures from the BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-35021153


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## Flamme

A fog in the morning. Couple of days ago...Around 9 am..,



















Was so thick you could literally cut it with a knife. Very spooky too...One can work in all weather i reckon.


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## TxllxT

Ingélou said:


> On a dog forum that I belong to, a woman who lives in Cumbria has been posting. She probably stayed awake all last night worrying about nearby flooding - a roof had been ripped off a barn close by - but she escaped, albeit with a huge hole gouged in the road and local bridges washed away. It has stopped raining but water will be running off the hills for some time so there'll still be trouble. The city of Carlisle, 20 miles away from her, is 'awash', she says, & on the BBC it says that thousands of homes in the North of England and in Scotland have been left without electric power.
> 
> Here are some pictures from the BBC:
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-35021153


Just saw the Dutch news with the flooding in Cumbria.  We often come in the Czech Republic, where until recently the authorities treated every flooding disaster as 'an act of God', i.e. something they were not responsible for. However, slowly they have started now to deepen out river-beds, canalising tracks where necessary etc. It's an ugly sight, true, because the nature is gone for a long time, but it has become imperative. I suppose the same is happening in Britain..


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## Ingélou

According to Shelagh on my dog forum, Carlisle was flooded five years ago & had a flood defence installed costing 38 million pounds - but this storm breached it. 

Yes, flood defences are being built and people are more aware - but a lot of the new housing that is needed for our growing population has been built on 'flood plains' which were previously left alone. Some families have only just recovered from a flooding when they are flooded again. It is now difficult for people to get insurance if they live near rivers or the sea even if the risk is low.


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## Guest

Much of the housing flooded in Carlisle is quite old...not new estates at all. But a city built where three rivers meet is always going to have difficulty with finding high land to build on.


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## TxllxT

MacLeod said:


> Much of the housing flooded in Carlisle is quite old...not new estates at all. But a city built where three rivers meet is always going to have difficulty with finding high land to build on.


Houseboats...That's a possible solution.


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## Jos

Blue sky with some very thin clouds, sun is shining; about 14C.
I'm out for a walk with the dogs !


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## TurnaboutVox

Today the clouds parted around 11 am and we saw the sun. I went out for a walk and it was astonishingly mild, like early October. The BBC website says it was 15C locally today, which I can believe. But very heavy rain is again forecast for tonight


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## sospiro

TurnaboutVox said:


> Today the clouds parted around 11 am and we saw the sun. I went out for a walk and it was astonishingly mild, like early October. The BBC website says it was 15C locally today, which I can believe. But very heavy rain is again forecast for tonight


Very mild here, most unusual, but I'm not complaining and happy to be saving on the heating bills.

Have you been flooded? Or are you slightly too far south to be affected?


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## hpowders

59 degrees Fahrenheit this morning. Took full advantage of the cool, crisp morning (like a chilled glass of Chardonnay!) and went for an early morning constitutional.

Just as Beethoven used to do in Vienna, except that I am not Beethoven, nor am I in Vienna.

PS: I will leave it to you to do the temperature conversion.

Oh come on now! It's not like I'm attempting to make you go from Catholic to Presbyterian!


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## TurnaboutVox

sospiro said:


> Very mild here, most unusual, but I'm not complaining and happy to be saving on the heating bills.
> 
> Have you been flooded? Or are you slightly too far south to be affected?


.
Slightly too far south, thank goodness. But the Ribble was terrifying a couple of weeks ago after the last but one lot of heavy rain. I'm sure that Headphone Hermit will have tales to tell us when his electricity comes back on (which looks like being some days yet).


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## Vaneyes

Ingélou said:


> According to Shelagh on my dog forum, Carlisle was flooded five years ago & had a flood defence installed costing 38 million pounds - but this storm breached it.
> 
> Yes, flood defences are being built and people are more aware - but a lot of the new housing that is needed for our growing population has been built on 'flood plains' which were previously left alone. Some families have only just recovered from a flooding when they are flooded again. *It is now difficult for people to get insurance if they live near rivers or the sea even if the risk is low.*


Yes, insurance companies prefer safe bets. And many banks have learned their lessons, now recording record profits. Of course their miserly saving, investment accounts interest rates haven't changed proportionately.

And how 'bout airline profits? There's gold in gouging passengers for atrocious non-services.

Mini-rant has concluded.


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## Ingélou

hpowders said:


> 59 degrees Fahrenheit this morning. Took full advantage of the cool, crisp morning (like a chilled glass of Chardonnay!) and went for an early morning constitutional.
> 
> Just as Beethoven used to do in Vienna, except that I am not Beethoven, nor am I in Vienna.
> 
> PS: I will leave it to you to do the temperature conversion.
> 
> Oh come on now! It's not like I'm attempting to make you go from Catholic to Presbyterian!


No problem with a Baby Boomer like me - I still think in Fahrenheit! 

PS - Oh, poor Headphone Hermit! I look forward to his return.


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## sospiro

TurnaboutVox said:


> .
> Slightly too far south, thank goodness. But the Ribble was terrifying a couple of weeks ago after the last but one lot of heavy rain. I'm sure that Headphone Hermit will have tales to tell us when his electricity comes back on (which looks like being some days yet).


Pleased you've been spared but poor HH.


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## hpowders

Ingélou said:


> No problem with a Baby Boomer like me - I still think in *Fahrenheit! :*)
> 
> PS - Oh, poor Headphone Hermit! I look forward to his return.


Just please don't say "Fahrenheit!" after I sneeze please!

But....how would I know?....and how would you know?

A Shakespearean dilemma.


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## Headphone Hermit

TurnaboutVox said:


> .
> I'm sure that Headphone Hermit will have tales to tell us when his electricity comes back on (which looks like being some days yet).


Thanks, fellow TC-ers.

'Twas a little inconvenient at the weekend.
No electricity (so therefore no landline as we have a cordless phone and the base unit needs mains electricity to work), no mobile connection, no internet, no central heating or cooker. So ... out came the Tranja and the barbecue (not often used in December in these parts!), on went the gas fire, more candles used than in a cathedral and we thanked our lucky starts that the house is 90m above sea level. 
electricity came back on this afternoon, then disconnected after a few hours but now back on again
We really are lucky .... some of us

Thanks again for your concern


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## sospiro

Headphone Hermit said:


> Thanks, fellow TC-ers.
> 
> 'Twas a little inconvenient at the weekend.
> No electricity (so therefore no landline as we have a cordless phone and the base unit needs mains electricity to work), no mobile connection, no internet, no central heating or cooker. So ... out came the Tranja and the barbecue (not often used in December in these parts!), on went the gas fire, more candles used than in a cathedral and we thanked our lucky starts that the house is 90m above sea level.
> electricity came back on this afternoon, then disconnected after a few hours but now back on again
> We really are lucky .... some of us
> 
> Thanks again for your concern


So pleased you've got your power back on and you haven't been flooded. Feel so terribly sorry for those poor people in Carlisle.


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## TxllxT

Headphone Hermit said:


> Thanks, fellow TC-ers.
> 
> 'Twas a little inconvenient at the weekend.
> No electricity (so therefore no landline as we have a cordless phone and the base unit needs mains electricity to work), no mobile connection, no internet, no central heating or cooker. So ... out came the Tranja and the barbecue (not often used in December in these parts!), on went the gas fire, more candles used than in a cathedral and we thanked our lucky starts that the house is 90m above sea level.
> electricity came back on this afternoon, then disconnected after a few hours but now back on again
> We really are lucky .... some of us
> 
> Thanks again for your concern


No electricity etc. : a real Hermit's existence! (with or without Headphone)


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## Headphone Hermit

TxllxT said:


> No electricity etc. : a real Hermit's existence! (with or without Headphone)


the headphones continued to be worn with an MP3 player and the Walkman - there were enough batteries to keep the Walkman going all weekend


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## Figleaf

Headphone Hermit said:


> the headphones continued to be worn with an MP3 player and the Walkman - there were enough batteries to keep the Walkman going all weekend


Sounds like you have your priorities sorted  and that you have prepared quite thoroughly for this weather event! Hopefully things will be back to normal for you soon.

It's been very mild and sunny here in Tring. Long may it last.


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## TxllxT

Too bad weather for the North West of England again. I wish all well + dry feet.


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## Weston

Bizarre weather for December in Nashville, though getting more and more common lately.










For those of you with more sensible measuring conventions, Sunday's high is expected to be 25 C.


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## Pugg

Rotterdam reporting a cool breezy morning.


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## KenOC

Most of the weather news where I live is about weather that hasn't happened yet! We have been having a severe multi-year drought caused by too little rain, too many people, or both. Now there is a large El Nino weather event forming, a distribution of warm water temperatures nearby in the equatorial region. In the past, this has often resulted in abnormally heavy rains over the winter.

So -- that's all the talk because the actual weather so far isn't very exciting. Time will tell.


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## GreenMamba

Pugg said:


> Rotterdam reporting a cool breezy morning.


Nice enough for flying?


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## Sloe

Weston said:


> Bizarre weather for December in Nashville, though getting more and more common lately.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> For those of you with more sensible measuring conventions, Sunday's high is expected to be 25 C.


I would like to have that weather here it is 1 C and sometimes below freezing point.


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## Pugg

GreenMamba said:


> Nice enough for flying?


Very sharp :cheers:


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## Cosmos

Chicago has been mild, a lot of rain, high 40s/low 50s [or about 7-10 degrees C], no snow yet, and no snow predicted for the next week, so I guess we won't have a White Christmas this year


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## Huilunsoittaja

Record highs recently. Today is high of 60F and that's still very warm for this time of year. Highs in December should be on average in mid-40s.


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## Flamme

Town totally engulfed in thick, unpiercable foggy curtain...Was riding a bike across the bridge over Danube and this is how it looked like...


















I really have an unearthy feeling. Like in Fog or even more the Mist...


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## TurnaboutVox

Wet (again). Warm. We went out to the supermarket last might about 22:00, got back 23:45. 14C and getting warmer. Weird and unseasonable. Instead of winter we now seem to be getting an annual monsoon.


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## TxllxT

A few days ago we bought a lot of tulip bulbs, which are now for sale in Holland (49 Eurocents for 10 bulbs). However with this weather it even advisable to wait until Christmas before planting them. Otherwise they will be flowering in early april...


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## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Adelaide 7-day Weather Forecast

Maximum42°C 41°C 42°C 30°C 27°C 31°C 33°C 
Minimum26°C 26°C 28°C 23°C 15°C 14°C 17°C 

Already had three days over 40°C, 
got three more to go till Sunday when we drop to 30°C

Blue blazers its hot here


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## Pugg

Rotterdam / The Netherlands are going to go for the warmest December since records keeping begon.
It is now 12 Celsius at almost 06.00 am


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## TurnaboutVox

It is 5 am here and 13C.

North West England Forecast Summary

Very mild for most of today and rather cloudy. Rain, locally heavy will be moving in from the west this morning with strengthening winds. It will clear during the afternoon with brighter, cooler and showery conditions following.

(I don't think that we ought to be fracking our shale deposits so we can burn some more fossil fuel...)


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## TxllxT

We were walking in the woods and noticed that the fern is still freshly green & alive. It makes one wonder about prehistoric times, when temperatures were higher than 'normal' and all those layers of peat were coming into being.


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## Ingélou

We went for a walk yesterday and saw a cherry tree in bloom. Meanwhile summer bedding is still blooming in some gardens, and my fiddle teacher says that a friend of his has birds building nests in his garden.


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## Pugg

It is ridiculous, 12C already, we have to mow the grass


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## sospiro

Pugg said:


> It is ridiculous, 12C already, *we have to mow the grass*


That's the worst part!


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## SarahNorthman

Its colder than a witches tit. Is that an accurate assessment?


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## isorhythm

I haven't worn my winter coat once this season. Very strange, somewhat unsettling.


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## Flamme

Sunny daze...xexe Here...Still cold...


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## Badinerie

The weather here is playing silly bu**ers. I was out and about today with no coat on. Last week though it was like this...


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## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Still melting here in Adelaide, one more day (Saturday) of plus 40C to go, predicted to be 44C. Sunday thankfully is meant to drop to a max of 30C, that's cooler than its been overnight for the last 4 days. Recorded 46C in my backyard yesterday. Ouch!
*Local News Report- "ADELAIDE'S weather again looks set to be scorched into the record books, as top temperatures of 40C or higher are forecast for four days in a row.*

After a steamy night in which the mercury hovered around 30C, the temperature had already hit 36C at 9.30am. And by 1pm it had already hit the forecast maximum of 42C.
It was 42.6C just after 2.30pm.
Such an unbroken run of soaring forties in December has never been recorded in the city but, after today's sizzling weather, and a high of 41.1C at 3.19pm yesterday, Friday is expected to reach 41C and Saturday, 44C.
Although similar four-day runs have been recorded in February, the current event would be the earliest in any summer since January 3-6, 1906.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Matt Collopy said that "four days greater than a record of 40C in Adelaide has never happened in December since records began in 1887".
"We had to go right back to 1906 to see that the earliest we had these temperatures in summer was in January, it looks like we'll break that one," he said."








SA Police officers take police horses for an early morning swim at Semaphore Beach


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## Sloe

Nice that it have become a bit warmer. 8 C here so it is not as warm it is in other places it will rain tonight but that is to expect when it is over five degrees this time of the year. I am more worried of how it will be in a few weeks. January and February are the really cold months.


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## senza sordino

Rain. December has been the rainiest month in the past two yrs, and it's only the 19th day of the month, with more rain in the forecast. 23 centimetres so far this month. No big destructive storms, just relentless rain. El Niño is here dumping the entire Pacific Ocean right on top of Vancouver. Snow in the local mountains so the skiers are enjoying themselves right now. Temperatures aren't high. Cold rain at 3 degrees Celsius feels colder than snow at 0 degrees Celsius.


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## Badinerie

16c today as opposed to last Saturdays 3. In the last week we have had rain, snow and hail-stones. My washing is in a hell of state!


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## Weston

Tornado warnings in Middle Tennessee and much of the southeastern US -- in December! I've just come out of my safe place after hearing the nearby tornado siren (a rather terrifying sound) earlier this evening, but nothing severe came through my neighborhood.


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## MrTortoise

Weston: Glad to hear everything is OK in your area. I'm to the north in Sumner county with Mom for Christmas and all is OK here, however looks like there was some trouble to the southwest of Nashville.


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## Pugg

It's Christmas eve as you folks call it, feels more like early spring .

If this continues, I have to cut the grass in the garden tomorrow :lol:


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## Huilunsoittaja

Forecast for my area on Christmas Eve:

*Thunderstorms *likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. *High 71F.* Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rain showers early with overcast skies late. Low around 55F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 50%.


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## Tristan

Sunny today on Christmas (as usual), but a bit colder than usual as well. High of 53 degrees F. 

The good thing is that we've been in severe drought here for 4 years and we've been getting a lot of rain this month, so just have to hope it continues this way.


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## TurnaboutVox

In central Lancashire it continues to rain, as it has done for the last two months. Many of you will have seen on news programmes the devastation caused by the recent floods in northern Lancashire and Cumbria to the north of us.

I just went down to the cellar to get a bottle of wine and noticed that there is a substantial trickle of water out of the base of the cellar wall across the floor, I presume from the saturated subsoil. It would have to rise a foot or two to reach the cellar electrics, but watch this space.


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## Jos

Walked the dogs today in a T-shirt !! 25th of december. Plants in the garden behave like its may.
Climate-change is real and I'm afraid we've realy done something terribly wrong to mother earth. (And we are still doing it, myself not excluded)
Nevertheless, a merry christmass to you all.


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## TurnaboutVox

The next door neighbour's back garden is a shallow lake today!
There is a shallow stream running across our lawn which drains into the new lake.
No wonder there is a large and growing pool in our cellar...


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## elgar's ghost

14 deg. C here - no jacket required unless it rains. And one single rose still seems to be defiantly in full bloom down at mum's place - ridiculous!


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## Guest

The extent of my gardening wisdom is to cut the clematis right down before the winter. It then sits dormant till the spring. What is the chopped down clematis doing now? - it's doubled in height through December and seems to be considering budding.
Homo sapiens is efficiently wrecking the biosphere. The future belongs to ants.


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## Guest

TurnaboutVox said:


> The next door neighbour's back garden is a shallow lake today!
> There is a shallow stream running across our lawn which drains into the new lake.
> No wonder there is a large and growing pool in our cellar...


Oh crumbs Mr Vox...


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## Pugg

It's official: we had the warmest Christmas ever recorded .
14 Celsius , ridiculous.
My heart go out to England and other parts on the globe with all that rain .


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## TurnaboutVox

dogen said:


> Oh crumbs Mr Vox...


The electricity distribution board is in the cellar.

Hmm well, we have a coal stove and fire, and the hob is gas...


----------



## Dr Johnson

^^

Fingers crossed for you.


----------



## Taggart

TurnaboutVox said:


> The electricity distribution board is in the cellar.
> 
> Hmm well, we have a coal stove and fire, and the hob is gas...


All the best.

Here in Norfolk, it's slightly damp. Although it rains a lot - 1 day in 3 - we get very little rain in total - typically below 3" a month, with a yearly average of about 27".


----------



## TurnaboutVox

I think we're getting a daily average of about 27" just now! 

We'll see if I'm laughing tonight...


----------



## sospiro

TurnaboutVox said:


> The next door neighbour's back garden is a shallow lake today!
> There is a shallow stream running across our lawn which drains into the new lake.
> No wonder there is a large and growing pool in our cellar...


Have been watching the news. Feel really sorry for you guys.


----------



## Guest

Taggart said:


> All the best.
> 
> Here in Norfolk, it's slightly damp. Although it rains a lot - 1 day in 3 - we get very little rain in total - typically below 3" a month, with a yearly average of about 27".


Plus, you couldn't have surface run-off from the hills; not really having any!

On the downside, a rise in sea level...


----------



## Taggart

dogen said:


> Plus, you couldn't have surface run-off from the hills; not really having any!
> 
> On the downside, a rise in sea level...


What we tend to get is tidal rivers backing up plus the infamous North Sea tidal surge - where southerly winds on the leading edge of a storm back water up the coast only for it to be forced downward by northerly winds on the trailing edge. If that coincides with a high tide then flooding ensues. The matter is made worse since we effectively live on an island joined to the mainlan by five bridges. Four of these are susceptible to flooding and the fifth closes in storm conditions because high winds make it unsafe.

Still, looking at the news sites, it's nothing like tbe situation up North. Our sympathies go out to those struggling with the floods in Lancashire and Yorkshire.


----------



## Kivimees

Rumours say the temperatures may drop below 0 tonight. Seeing is believing.

Four of the last five Christmases have been without snow - I don't believe I experienced that many in my first 25 years.


----------



## Ingélou

We are fine here in Norfolk. But this is what is facing my home town:










And poor Lancashire too, and Wales. Unbelievable weather.


----------



## sospiro

I'm following the Twitter feed of journalist Benjamin Myers (@BenMyers1) who lives in Mytholmroyd.



> Just spent an hour chest deep in icy flood water in Mytholmroyd, evacuating OAPs from their flats. No authorities here. Terrible scenes.


----------



## Wood

Two weeks ago I headed south through Cumbria and Lancashire where it rained none stop, the road was treacherous with surface water and visibility low. Vehicles were having trouble accessing Carlisle.

Yesterday, coming back up north, the conditions were exactly the same. Now the M6 motorway has turned into a causeway over a newly created lake which extends to the (admittedly low) horizon, with bare trees rather spookily poking through the water line.

Driving 1,000 miles on a motorway can become quite disorientating, and I started to believe that I had turned the wrong way at the Manche and landed up in Bangladesh.

This is surely the most remarkable thing to happen to the townsfolk of Carlisle since they topped the old Division One in 197?.


----------



## Weston

My thoughts are with our friends in the north of England.


----------



## ptr

Its been snowing for the last three hours! I just hate it, really need to go south!

/ptr


----------



## Kivimees

ptr said:


> Its been snowing for the last three hours! I just hate it, really need to go south!
> 
> /ptr


Brilliant sunshine here, well, until the sun sets in another 30 minutes. It is after all 3 PM.


----------



## SarahNorthman

Snow! Snow everywhere!


----------



## TurnaboutVox

There really are going to be a lot of cold, wet, miserable and displaced folk in the North of England tonight. For a first world country, it's going to be a fairly uncomfortable experience, especially for those flooded out of their homes, for a few weeks or months until things get back to 'normal'. But increasingly, it seems that is a state in which heavy rainfall may result in flooding at almost any time of the year.

Thanks for members' expressions of concern and sympathy. I and my family are all lucky enough to be safe and dry at home, thank goodness.


----------



## Guest

Perhaps if the official residence of the prime minister was in the north, there would have been no plans to cut back on flood defence spending.


----------



## brotagonist

The 3-day cold snap, -15°, has ended! From 22 o'clock to midnight last evening, the temperature rose 6° and it is currently -4°. I know all about layers and I can be toasty and comfy—and I do venture out when it's so cold that I feel like the man on the moon—but I don't like the cold.


----------



## Guest

Environment Secretary Truss visits flooded areas! Truss has been subject to international criticism for being a key player in the UK's shift away from clean energy. But then she is a former Shell employee. And supports badger culls and is pro hunting. Lovely.


----------



## Taggart

TurnaboutVox said:


> Thanks for members' expressions of concern and sympathy. I and my family are all lucky enough to be safe and dry at home, thank goodness.


Glad to hear it.


----------



## Sloe

Today have been the worst kind of weather snowstorm that turned into heavy rain but with snow and ice.


----------



## TxllxT

Yesterday the Dutch news featured a Dutch civil engineer who is working in the UK, advising the British government. He told that in Holland about 2/3 of the country is potentially in danger of flooding; that's why protecting the people against flooding hazards is a political top priority for the Dutch. No Dutch people will have wet feet & wet furniture. In Britain however, only 15% of the country is potentially in danger of flooding; that's why it is no political top priority (decided in London). Well, this is cold comfort, isn't it? He advises those people who have had to endure so frequent floodings to make a stone floor downstairs...


----------



## Wood

TxllxT said:


> Yesterday the Dutch news featured a Dutch civil engineer who is working in the UK, advising the British government. He told that in Holland about 2/3 of the country is potentially in danger of flooding; that's why protecting the people against flooding hazards is a political top priority for the Dutch. No Dutch people will have wet feet & wet furniture. In Britain however, only 15% of the country is potentially in danger of flooding; that's why it is no political top priority (decided in London). Well, this is cold comfort, isn't it? He advises those people who have had to endure so frequent floodings to make a stone floor downstairs...


That is interesting. I'd have thought that the Dutch would be suffering several degrees worse misery then the English.

Crossing the Ijsselmeer on a motorcycle is a great experience.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

^^^ the Dutch suffered much more in the Great Flood of 1953 than the British did and that spurred a concerted and largely consensual national drive towards expensive and highly engineered systems of flood defence that were largely geared towards preventing sea and river flooding - the latter from the estuary of the Rhine - which has an extremely large drainage basin and so is much less prone to flooding from bouts of heavy rainfall in small scale drainage basins.

Britain poses a completely different range of problems as recent events have demonstrated. Here the risks are dispersed widely into relatively small drainage basins - and small drainage basins are much more susceptible to flash flooding than larger ones. The coastline cannot be shortened and protected as it was in the Delta Scheme and 60 years of development since the 1950s have seen flood plains increasingly built upon for housing, transport, commerce and industry. The solutions for the Dutch are not the solutions for Britain.

Yes, we need to learn to live with the risk from flooding, but large scale engineering is unlikely to provide the answer on its own


----------



## Wood

Headphone Hermit said:


> ^^^ the Dutch suffered much more in the Great Flood of 1953 than the British did and that spurred a concerted and largely consensual national drive towards expensive and highly engineered systems of flood defence that were largely geared towards preventing sea and river flooding - the latter from the estuary of the Rhine - which has an extremely large drainage basin and so is much less prone to flooding from bouts of heavy rainfall in small scale drainage basins.
> 
> Britain poses a completely different range of problems as recent events have demonstrated. Here the risks are dispersed widely into relatively small drainage basins - and small drainage basins are much more susceptible to flash flooding than larger ones. The coastline cannot be shortened and protected as it was in the Delta Scheme and 60 years of development since the 1950s have seen flood plains increasingly built upon for housing, transport, commerce and industry. The solutions for the Dutch are not the solutions for Britain.
> 
> Yes, we need to learn to live with the risk from flooding, but large scale engineering is unlikely to provide the answer on its own


I see. Yes, that rings true. The reason people I know were flooded out of their homes was due to a stream that was enclosed underground in a pipe in the 1920s whilst the area was developed. Modern heavy rain revealed that the pipe was too small, so the water came up out of drains and flooded the houses in the drains' flood plain. Presumably a huge amount of small scale engineering would be necessary to resolve these problems. From a cost / benefit point of view, perhaps stone floors are the best response, but it would also be better if new buildings were built higher rather than spread over wide unsuitable areas.


----------



## TxllxT

Wood said:


> I see. Yes, that rings true. The reason people I know were flooded out of their homes was due to a stream that was enclosed underground in a pipe in the 1920s whilst the area was developed. Modern heavy rain revealed that the pipe was too small, so the water came up out of drains and flooded the houses in the drains' flood plain. Presumably a huge amount of small scale engineering would be necessary to resolve these problems. From a cost / benefit point of view, perhaps stone floors are the best response, but it would also be better if new buildings were built higher rather than spread over wide unsuitable areas.


The Dutch civil engineer also mentioned the need for more trees planted on the top of hills, more meandering S-flows in the rivers in order to be able to contain more water & prevent smaller floods from flashing into great floods. It's the same as in the Cote d'Azur: everywhere city concrete, and all the water just comes rushing down...


----------



## Taggart

We're certainly building higher here in Norfolk. The council is insisting on this sort of flood protection. Part of the trouble is older buildings in unsuitable areas:










Weird to think that you have ships *above *the road level!

We have considerable experience of Dutch engineering both in terms of fen drainage and also in the Old Dutch pier at Gorleston. The Old Dutch Pier was started in 1650. Joas Johnson a dutch engineer was consulted in the design stage to try to create a more stable harbour entrance. It was replaced in 1962.


----------



## mstar

It's the first snow in a long time in the US Northeast, even though it's the end of December. Is it global warming? Is it just a strong El Niño year? I'm not sure, but either way, the warmer weather is certainly welcome. 

However, the roads are full of sleet, so it's definitely a no-go for a new driver like me.


----------



## TxllxT

Taggart said:


> We're certainly building higher here in Norfolk. The council is insisting on this sort of flood protection. Part of the trouble is older buildings in unsuitable areas:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Weird to think that you have ships *above *the road level!
> 
> We have considerable experience of Dutch engineering both in terms of fen drainage and also in the Old Dutch pier at Gorleston. The Old Dutch Pier was started in 1650. Joas Johnson a dutch engineer was consulted in the design stage to try to create a more stable harbour entrance. It was replaced in 1962.





















One of the oldest institutions in Holland is 'a state within the state' called: waterstaat. This institution controls all the water; we Dutch pay a separate tax to it. I guess that this water-state (it's much more powerful than any environmental agency, because it has it's own financial funding separate from the Dutch government) may be needed outside Holland as well...


----------



## Flamme

Temp suddenly dropped but still liveable...
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Belgrade+Serbia+SRXX0005:1:SR


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Taggart said:


> Weird to think that you have ships *above *the road level!


There is often resistance to flood protection schemes from residents in such areas - In Lancaster, a scheme was held up for a long time because residents along St George's Quay objected that the flood wall would detract from their view of the river and the presence of such a scheme would lower their property prices because people might think the river was prone to flooding.

The latter is a particularly odd idea, don't you think


----------



## TurnaboutVox

Whereas the presence of a sewage tide-mark on the walls, undulating floorboards, a pile of sodden furniture on the quayside and a dolphin poking out of the chimney would...raise property prices?


----------



## sospiro

What the authorities won't tell you about the floods.

Not sure if this is genuine. I can't believe we are prevented from dredging rivers because of a European Directive.


----------



## Belowpar

TxllxT said:


> One of the oldest institutions in Holland is 'a state within the state' called: waterstaat. This institution controls all the water; we Dutch pay a separate tax to it. I guess that this water-state (it's much more powerful than any environmental agency, because it has it's own financial funding separate from the Dutch government) may be needed outside Holland as well...


Interesting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rijkswaterstaat

Is it really above politics? There are often calls in the UK that some issues are just too important to be run by party politics with its 5 year election focus. E.g. the NHS or Education. The danger of course is having non elected bodies that do their own thing with no accountability.


----------



## Kivimees

sospiro said:


> What the authorities won't tell you about the floods.
> 
> Not sure if this is genuine. I can't believe we are prevented from dredging rivers because of a European Directive.


I haven't the strength to dive into the EU regulations (who has?), but there is a story making the rounds that the recent floods could have been prevented by river dredging. The story is - at best - misleading. River dredging can ease flood effects that are relatively frequent and small scale. Dredging does little to help with infrequent, large scale inundations such as these. In fact, dredging can make the situation worse.


----------



## Taggart

sospiro said:


> What the authorities won't tell you about the floods.
> 
> Not sure if this is genuine. I can't believe we are prevented from dredging rivers because of a European Directive.


The big story about dredging goes back to 2013/2014 and the Somerset Levels Floods. Fascinating because it's a polder situation much like the fens. But unlike the fens they didn't use pumps relying on drainage. There's a lot of buck passing in the story with the EU getting some stick. The actual position is probably much more complex than any single factor explanation.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

TurnaboutVox said:


> Whereas the presence of a sewage tide-mark on the walls, undulating floorboards, a pile of sodden furniture on the quayside and a dolphin poking out of the chimney would...raise property prices?


When I used to teach a module on Environmental Hazards, I referred to a poll published in a national newspaper that suggested that 30% of Brits knew that a river would inundate its flood plain occasionally - presumably 70% of people *don't* realise that flood plains, be definition, are prone to flooding!


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Taggart said:


> The big story about dredging goes back to 2013/2014 and the Somerset Levels Floods. Fascinating because it's a polder situation much like the fens. But unlike the fens they didn't use pumps relying on drainage. There's a lot of buck passing in the story with the EU getting some stick. The actual position is probably much more complex than any single factor explanation.


The Somerset Levels are artificial creations - at best they are borrowed from flooding.

I feel somewhat sorry for those who have ended up living in such a flood-prone area, but that sympathy doesn't extend to me wishing to pay to protect their property. Creating housing in such areas that is flood resistant is inherently expensive, creating flood-proof defences is even more so .... and I would prefer to invest my taxes in other priorities.

For those living where other factors have increased flood-risk (eg in areas where flooding has not previously been an issue) it is different but areas such as the river bank in York have been known to be prone to flooding for centuries


----------



## TxllxT

Belowpar said:


> Interesting
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rijkswaterstaat
> 
> Is it really above politics? There are often calls in the UK that some issues are just too important to be run by party politics with its 5 year election focus. E.g. the NHS or Education. The danger of course is having non elected bodies that do their own thing with no accountability.


The Dutch Waterstaat is actually the oldest institution which has democratic elections of its own; but the elected people are technocrats who know about the water-business. The accountability of course is as direct as possible: dry feet or wet feet. On our island the last few years there have been installed lots of sun-powered sluices, that ingeniously regulate the amount of water kept in the canals and farmlands. Texel winters mostly happen to be too wet, the summers on the other hand are too dry, but now with the new sluice technology it seems the balance will be better maintained.


----------



## TxllxT

My thoughts are with the people in Britain, who are now facing the third/fourth/fifth flooding of their properties in one single month! Happy (& a lot drier) New Year!!!


----------



## Flamme

Not so cold but wet and that adds creepy feeling in ones bones.


----------



## sospiro

I am at a loss to understand this story of the Foss Barrier.

*" ... With the barrier's electrical motors at risk of flooding - something which itself will face investigation - staff feared that the barrier, if left lowered, could become stuck there, trapping the waters of the Foss and causing more flooding..."* 
Source BBC News

*" ... The agency said it was left no option but to raise the Foss Barrier in the city after the barrier's pumping station became "overwhelmed" by flood water, risking electrical failure..."* 
Source Telegraph

A flood barrier failed because it was flooded? Shouldn't a flood barrier be flood proof?


----------



## Wood

sospiro said:


> What the authorities won't tell you about the floods.
> 
> Not sure if this is genuine. I can't believe we are prevented from dredging rivers because of a European Directive.


Interesting, but there seems to be an agenda in the article, anti-EU and pro-slave labour. I'll take it with a pinch of salt!


----------



## Flamme

There is lot of talk in my country too about ''secret agenda'' to alter the weather, via chemtrails, haarp antennas...To me its an attractive idea but seems like a long shot.


----------



## Kivimees

Wood said:


> Interesting, but there seems to be an agenda in the article, anti-EU and pro-slave labour. I'll take it with a pinch of salt!


I rather suspect that had the EU made dredging mandatory, the same news sources would be complaining about 'the waste of money that wouldn't have helped anyway'. :lol:


----------



## Flamme

I would just enjoy these swamps...


----------



## Kivimees

sospiro said:


> I am at a loss to understand this story of the Foss Barrier.
> 
> *" ... With the barrier's electrical motors at risk of flooding - something which itself will face investigation - staff feared that the barrier, if left lowered, could become stuck there, trapping the waters of the Foss and causing more flooding..."*
> Source BBC News
> 
> *" ... The agency said it was left no option but to raise the Foss Barrier in the city after the barrier's pumping station became "overwhelmed" by flood water, risking electrical failure..."*
> Source Telegraph
> 
> A flood barrier failed because it was flooded? Shouldn't a flood barrier be flood proof?


My understanding after reading the articles - and I admit I'm speculating liberally - is that the decision was made because 1) there were fears the barrier would be breached anyway (the flood waters exceeding the barriers capacity), thereby damaging the barrier's mechanical system, and 2) by raising the barrier worse flooding upstream would be prevented although at the expense of more flooding downstream. Not an easy decision to make.


----------



## sospiro

Kivimees said:


> My understanding after reading the articles - and I admit I'm speculating liberally - is that the decision was made because 1) there were fears the barrier would be breached anyway (the flood waters exceeding the barriers capacity), thereby damaging the barrier's mechanical system, and 2) by raising the barrier worse flooding upstream would be prevented although at the expense of more flooding downstream. Not an easy decision to make.


Thank you, I appreciate the explanation. As you say, not an easy decision.


----------



## Kivimees

sospiro said:


> Thank you, I appreciate the explanation. As you say, not an easy decision.


My pleasure! I'm glad that time doing urban hydrology early in my career still has use. :tiphat:


----------



## Ingélou

Kivimees said:


> My understanding after reading the articles - and I admit I'm speculating liberally - is that the decision was made because 1) there were fears the barrier would be breached anyway (the flood waters exceeding the barriers capacity), thereby damaging the barrier's mechanical system, and 2) by raising the barrier worse flooding upstream would be prevented although at the expense of more flooding downstream. Not an easy decision to make.


Thanks for the explanation. I think people were also puzzled as to why the Foss barrier was considered to be about to fail, as it had held in an earlier flood when the water levels were higher. I suppose York residents want to know that a right & timely decision was made, rather than a premature and wrong one. They may tend to suspect explanations put out afterwards by officials with a reputation to safeguard - I wonder why!

York used to flood along the Ouse when I was growing up, but I never remember a Foss flood. (The Foss would become swollen, but it didn't spill onto the road or into houses.) Flood works have been put in place there, and imo need to be put in place there, because York is an important historic city, and a cultural, administrative and business centre for the North of England - almost a Second Capital - not somewhere where new houses are built on a flood plain because of some commercial whim. Most of the flooded areas were not new build.


----------



## TxllxT

Ingélou said:


> Thanks for the explanation. I think people were also puzzled as to why the Foss barrier was considered to be about to fail, as it had held in an earlier flood when the water levels were higher. I suppose York residents want to know that a right & timely decision was made, rather than a premature and wrong one. They may tend to suspect explanations put out afterwards by officials with a reputation to safeguard - I wonder why!
> 
> York used to flood along the Ouse when I was growing up, but I never remember a Foss flood. Flood works have been put in place there, and imo need to be put in place there, because York is an important historic city, and a centre for the North of England - not somewhere where new houses are built on a flood plain because of some commercial whim. Most of the flooded areas were not new build.


Still I get the impression that the designers of this flood barrier did not take into account these high water levels (just as if such levels would not be possible in the nearby future). Mostly the reason are just the costly extra expenses that are needed to make York really safe. Now they got instead a dummy lookalike 'barrier', a baby comforter.


----------



## Ingélou

Obviously they didn't calculate properly - as in other parts of the country - perhaps because Storm Eva was unprecedented in its severity. I read that every river in Lancashire had swollen to its highest level ever recorded.

And in the latest, Storm Frank, the eighteenth century bridge in Tadcaster near York slid into the water. 



They caught that on camera, and it breaks my heart to see it.

Clearly we're getting more of these extreme events and the authorities have not done enough.

However, I still can't agree that your impression is correct, or that it's appropriate to talk about baby comforters. York people wouldn't stand for that. The city has been putting various schemes into effect for about forty years now. These need to be kept in full order and improved on now.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ds-homes-engulfed-York-city-left-exposed.html

http://www.itv.com/news/calendar/20...aunched-after-river-foss-flood-barrier-fails/

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...achment_data/file/297448/gene1208bpbw-e-e.pdf


----------



## TxllxT

*Locking the stable door after the horse has bolted*

Below there are a few *live* example translations from http://nl.bab.la/woordenboek/nederlands-engels/als-het-kalf-verdronken-is of the Dutch phrase: "Filling up the water well, after the calf has drowned". Notice that even in Dutch language water is omnipresent... As to the baby comforter, once you've got such a thing in your mouth it becomes difficult to speak out. So does York have a barrier or a 'Potemkin village' fake?

_Het is niet te geloven dat wij de put pas dempen als het kalf verdronken is._
Yet it is incomprehensible that we react only when the damage has been done.

_We moeten de put niet pas dempen als het kalf verdronken is, want dat kan ons duur komen te staan._
It is preferable to make this investment sooner rather than later, as delay could prove costly.

_Als het kalf verdronken is dempt men de put helaas pas._
Sadly, no action is taken until the situation deteriorates to crisis point.

_Ik kan er niets aan doen maar ik vind dit meer een geval van " de put dempen als het kalf verdronken is "!_
I cannot help thinking this is more a case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted!

_Bijna een jaar geleden heb ik hier opgemerkt dat we de put dempen als het kalf verdronken is._
Nearly a year ago, I remarked in this House that we are locking the stable door after the horse has bolted.

_Dit is zo'n klassiek geval, waarin men - zoals de boeren zeggen - de put dempt als het kalf verdronken is._
I should say this would be a classic case of locking the stable door, as they say, after the horse has bolted.

_Deze maatregelen doen mij echter denken aan de uitdrukking ' als het kalf verdronken is, dempt men de put '._
However, to use an English phrase, these measures are akin to closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.

_Opnieuw een ramp, terwijl we na de vorige ramp zeiden: " als het kalf verdronken is, dempt men de put "._
This is yet another disaster, although we said after the last one that it was too late to lock the stable door after the horse had bolted.

_Laten wij de put niet dempen als het kalf al verdronken is._
We must not wait for tragedies to happen in order to act; we must act before they happen.

_We dempen de put ook pas als het kalf bijna verdronken is, als de Commissie de waarschuwingsmechanismen al in werking moet stellen._
And we realise this when it is almost too late, when the Commission is forced to put in place early warning systems.

_Ik ben voor het instellen van een tijdelijke commissie, maar we moeten oppassen dat we de put niet pas dempen als het kalf al verdronken is._
I support the establishment of a temporary committee, but we have to be careful not to bolt the stable door after the horse has bolted.

_Bij dit specifieke thema mag de Unie zich niet beperken tot buitengewone maatregelen: men moet, zoals men pleegt te zeggen, de put niet meer dempen als het kalf al verdronken is._
With regard to this matter, it is vital for the Union not to restrict itself to making exceptional interventions once disasters have already occurred, as has already been said.


----------



## Ingélou

*'As to the baby comforter, once you've got such a thing in your mouth it becomes difficult to speak out. So does York have a barrier or a 'Potemkin village' fake?' (quotation: see above.)
*
*It has a defence scheme that has worked well in earlier floods when the water level was actually higher. Which isn't to say that it worked this time - it obviously does need to be improved. And the people of York have never had any difficulty in speaking out.*


----------



## Flamme

Cold but clear, night, many sparkling stars...


----------



## Ingélou

It's been a wonderful springlike sunny day here today. Yesterday, when Scotland and the North were suffering a horrendous storm, it was windy and rainy here, but only in the usual winter fashion. I hope it was sunny in Scotland today to give them time to recover. 

It's a calm, beautiful night for New Year here in Gorgeous Gorleston!


----------



## TxllxT

Ingélou said:


> *'As to the baby comforter, once you've got such a thing in your mouth it becomes difficult to speak out. So does York have a barrier or a 'Potemkin village' fake?' (quotation: see above.)
> *
> *It has a defence scheme that has worked well in earlier floods when the water level was actually higher. Which isn't to say that it worked this time - it obviously does need to be improved. And the people of York have never had any difficulty in speaking out.*


You're a great example of York speaking out!  Let's hope the New Year will bring better tidings. In Holland the New Year will bring colder weather, perhaps with sleet...


----------



## Ingélou

TxllxT said:


> You're a great example of York speaking out!  *Let's hope the New Year will bring better tidings.* In Holland the New Year will bring colder weather, perhaps with sleet...


I hope so too. I think Britain can certainly learn a lot from the Dutch regarding flood prevention and defence. Happy New Year to you, TxllxT.



Ingélou said:


> It's been a wonderful springlike sunny day here today. Yesterday, when Scotland and the North were suffering a horrendous storm, it was windy and rainy here, but only in the usual winter fashion. I hope it was sunny in Scotland today to give them time to recover.
> 
> It's *a calm, beautiful night* for New Year here in Gorgeous Gorleston!


And just with that, I can hear the rain bucketing down on my bungalow roof. 
Just in time to spoil any firework parties - let's hope that's *all* it does!
British weather - what can beat it?


----------



## ArtMusic

Ingélou said:


> I hope so too. I think Britain can certainly learn a lot from the Dutch regarding flood prevention and defence. Happy New Year to you, TxllxT.
> 
> And just with that, I can hear the rain bucketing down on my bungalow roof.
> Just in time to spoil any firework parties - let's hope that's *all* it does!
> British weather - what can beat it?


I hope you and your community is alright, I read there is a lot flooding in the UK.


----------



## Wood

Happy New Year to everyone.

The flooding has now reached my region:


----------



## Ingélou

^^^^^ Oh goodness - that's awful. Hope it soon abates.
Happy New Year, Wood.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

I hope you're safe and dry, Wood. It's pretty shocking to see the north Deeside road so badly damaged - well, swept away in places.


----------



## Wood

Yes I'm fine thanks, TV & Ingelou. I live away from the worst effected area, but I spend a fair bit of time there, and yes, the damage is quite shocking.


----------



## Flamme

Moon was amazing last night, very bright, like it was cut in half but diagonally and in straight line above him was also very bright star, Venus? I dont know but i thought of strange heavenly signs and omens.


----------



## Kivimees

After what is likely to have been the warmest December on record, we are starting the new year with a 'normal' -14 degrees C.


----------



## Taggart

Given all the fuss about dredging an interesting article from the Independent on how Pickering avoided flooding.

The basic point is that they used old fashioned techniques to slow down the water flow and provided holding areas to stop sudden inundations. Rather than blocking the flood water, they simply slowed it down. The article also makes the point that dredging simply passes the problem on down stream by allowing the water to race past.


----------



## sospiro

Taggart said:


> Given all the fuss about dredging an interesting article from the Independent on how Pickering avoided flooding.
> 
> The basic point is that they used old fashioned techniques to slow down the water flow and provided holding areas to stop sudden inundations. Rather than blocking the flood water, they simply slowed it down. The article also makes the point that dredging simply passes the problem on down stream by allowing the water to race past.


Excellent article; the old way is often the best way. Thank you.


----------



## Guest

sospiro said:


> Excellent article; the old way is often the best way. Thank you.


Indeed. Very interesting. It was also surprising to me to see that apparently the government are liars.


----------



## sospiro

dogen said:


> Indeed. Very interesting. *It was also surprising to me to see that apparently the government are liars*.


That should _never_ surprise you! :lol:


----------



## TxllxT

The north of the Netherlands is coping with glaze / black ice in such amounts as was last seen in 1979. Well, that was a real winter!


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> The north of the Netherlands is coping with glaze / black ice in such amounts as was last seen in 1979. Well, that was a real winter!


You beat me to it, seeing the size off our country it's almost unbelievable


----------



## TurnaboutVox

dogen said:


> Indeed. Very interesting. It was also surprising to me to see that apparently the government are liars.


Your suggestion that any member of Her Britannic Majesty's Government might utter the merest hint of a falsehood, Sir, is deeply painful and shocking to me.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

TurnaboutVox said:


> Your suggestion that any member of Her Britannic Majesty's Government might utter the merest hint of a falsehood, Sir, is deeply painful and shocking to me.


Heaven forbid, sir!

Occasionally they *do* tell part of the truth and base some of their opinions on impartial consideration of the evidence :devil:


----------



## Guest

TurnaboutVox said:


> Your suggestion that any member of Her Britannic Majesty's Government might utter the merest hint of a falsehood, Sir, is deeply painful and shocking to me.


I'm sorry, I withdraw my assertion and admit that I am a communist spy.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

dogen said:


> I'm sorry, I withdraw my assertion and admit that I am a communist spy.


Ah! You must be that Corbyn chappie in real life.


----------



## sospiro

TxllxT said:


> The north of the Netherlands is coping with glaze / black ice in such amounts as was last seen in 1979. Well, that was a real winter!




Scary!! I hope it doesn't come this way!


----------



## sospiro

TurnaboutVox said:


> Your suggestion that any member of Her Britannic Majesty's Government might utter the merest hint of a falsehood, Sir, is deeply painful and shocking to me.


----------



## Guest

TurnaboutVox said:


> Ah! You must be that Corbyn chappie in real life.


There are similarities


----------



## KenOC

A wet week in Southern California! Well, this much rain wouldn't be "too wet" in many places, but here it's the wettest week in several years. Our promised El Nino weather pattern seems to have arrived. And about time. The water level in Folsom Reservoir up north has risen 28 feet in the last four weeks, and the Sierra snowpack, on which California depends for year-round water, was well above normal even before this week's rains.


----------



## Harmonie

It's been a lame winter so far. As has been the case for pretty much every winter since the winter at the end of 2011 and on. =/

I live in Oklahoma. I know we're never going to get a real winter. But we at least used to get days where the highs would remain in the teens or low 20s, and we'd get snow that would accumulate more than two inches. Hasn't happened in five years.


----------



## Pugg

We had a glorious day, almost spring like.
Almost 13 degrees , not bad, but then again they are predicting snow later next week


----------



## brotagonist

After the mild 0°-ish week between Christmas and New Year, winter has arrived, with a bracing reminder of the power it wields to bring all to a standstill. It is currently -18°, which might still be considered a blessing, despite starting to show some bite, as winter can bring temperatures as low as -30° for periods as long as a week or even two, once or twice per year. The night-time snowfall resulted in a further accumulation of about a centimetre, with a total accumulation to about ankle depth, a far cry from the knee-high snowfalls and metre high drifts of my childhood. Global warming is very welcome here, from November to March. I would gladly shave off the summertime temperature peaks in excess of 25° (that can last for 6-8 weeks and, occasionally, even peak at 32°) and bank them for wintertime. Yes, we have a temperature differential of about 60° from summer to winter, taking into account the extremes: I have read that this is supposed to be very good for the health—and it is fun, as long as one can get away from it at will :lol:


----------



## TxllxT

Quite a lot of snow in Saint Petersburg. Almost everyday we follow the beautiful series of webcams

http://vpiter.com/web-camera-sadovaya-gostiniy/

to see what's the weather is like in the homestead of my wife's father. This is the first significant amount in a long time. For those who like the typical Russian pastime of jumping into freezingly cold water: check out the webcams that are turned towards the Neva river regularly. Although it's a small screen one may notice a lot of daredevils on the ice. On 19 January it's the official day for getting into the water (remembering the baptism of Jesus).


----------



## Jeffrey Smith

Very rainy day, although the sun is starting to peek through, and the temperature is 62F.

Which means, in locale terms, a nasty freezing winter day.

Locale being South Florida.


----------



## Sloe

It have been plus the last days before that it have been minus there have been lots of snow. It have also been snowing with plus degrees causing extreme slushiness were it has been impossible to go out without becoming wet. Now it will be minus again. I can say that I prefer plus with slush over minus and dry.


----------



## SiegendesLicht

The view from my window today:















The snow has been falling all of Monday, Tuesday and started again just now. Yesterday morning was a commuting hell. But I still love it. And all the kids do too


----------



## MoonlightSonata

Back in summer in New Zealand from the English winter. It's beautiful and sunny, which will take some getting used to.


----------



## TxllxT

MoonlightSonata said:


> Back in summer in New Zealand from the English winter. It's beautiful and sunny, which will take some getting used to.


We heard from our son in Auckland, that the summer is quite wet...


----------



## MoonlightSonata

TxllxT said:


> We heard from our son in Auckland, that the summer is quite wet...


Apparently it did rain yesterday morning, but I got back yesterday afternoon and it's all been sunny since then. It's also a long way from Auckland where I am.


----------



## Pugg

Rain, rain, rain and so one, and the snow is just ahead, so no good news from my country


----------



## TurnaboutVox

For the second day running it's cold (2C) and very bright and sunny. But no rain!


----------



## Ingélou

It was sleety and very wild last night and the forecast was for gusts of 70 mph and possibly snow. 

So we chickened out of going dancing. I felt guilty. But the truth is, we are scarred by dutifully turning out for my two violin teachers' concert at the end of 2013 (they play in a string quartet) when a tidal surge up the rivers Waveney & Yare was expected. We came out to discover that two of our local bridges had been shut, and we had to make an anxious dash for the last remaining one. That one was shut an hour later, and if we hadn't made it, we'd have had to find a hotel. With all the rivers and bridges round Gorleston & Great Yarmouth, we actually 'live on an island'. 

Today it continues to be wild, cold, and very rainy.


----------



## TxllxT

Pugg said:


> Rain, rain, rain and so one, and the snow is just ahead, so no good news from my country


 it is raining whales over here


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> it is raining whales over here


Did you see the back of the sport section off het Algemeen Dagblad today?
The cartoons I mean?


----------



## Headphone Hermit

TurnaboutVox said:


> For the second day running it's cold (2C) and very bright and sunny. But no rain!


it'll come.

just a few minutes, and it will come!!!


----------



## Sloe

I hate this weather it is way below freezing point now. I am freezing despite that I am indoors. I want it to be warmer.


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Today was coldest day of the winter so far, let alone the New Year. High of 24F, and windy!

Feel the icy wind freeze you to the bone...


----------



## Sloe

Yesterday was -19 degrees C.
I can say that was probably the coldest day in several years. I was so called that I nearly injured my hands and I had gloves. That is how cold it was and I had to be out all morning. I can just say horrible. Now it seems to be a little bit milder with temperatures just above the freezing point but it will be snowing.


----------



## starthrower

Looks like this here (upstate New York) at the moment. After 50+ winters, I've just about had it.


----------



## Sloe

starthrower said:


> Looks like this here (upstate New York) at the moment. After 50+ winters, I've just about had it.


It looks the same here.
It is hard to believe that this picture is taken as far south as the Mediterranean Sea.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Sloe said:


> It is hard to believe that this picture is taken as far south as the Mediterranean Sea.


only if you know little about climate and geography :devil:


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Plus 40C here and too hot to go outside


----------



## Jeffrey Smith

starthrower said:


> Looks like this here (upstate New York) at the moment. After 50+ winters, I've just about had it.


That's why we have so many New Yorkers here in Florida. Currently 58F, the overnight low predicted at 50F, which will make it the coldest night of the season so far. I may have to put an extra blanket on the bed.


----------



## Pugg

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Plus 40C here and too hot to go outside


That is so cruel, wait till we have summer and you have below zero like we do now


----------



## Pugg

starthrower said:


> Looks like this here (upstate New York) at the moment. After 50+ winters, I've just about had it.


I received same sort of pictures, from our friends from New York.


----------



## Sloe

Currently it is chaotic snow weather here.
Diffficult to move in the snow it took maybe twice the time as usual to get home because of the snow.


----------



## Kivimees

Now that the -20 C temperatures have become -5 C, the sauna ritual can again include frolicking in the snow. :devil:


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Pugg said:


> That is so cruel, wait till we have summer and you have below zero like we do now


You'd like the winter here, doesn't get below 10C.

We start to feel cold at below 15C.


----------



## Pugg

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> You'd like the winter here, doesn't get below 10C.
> 
> We start to feel cold at below 15C.


Even more cruel (for us that is)


----------



## Jeff W

It is currently -10 C (14 F) with the wind gusting at 51 kmh (32 mph) here in Albany. It is starting to get quite cold even for me!


----------



## TurnaboutVox

Pugg said:


> That is so cruel, wait till we have summer and you have below zero like we do now





EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> You'd like the winter here, doesn't get below 10C.
> 
> We start to feel cold at below 15C.


You wait till summer here. It doesn't get below 10C, usually. Or much above 15C either.


----------



## EricABQ

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/19/east_coast_blizzard_will_impact_washington_new_york_boston.html

The east coast is in for some good times. Enjoy


----------



## Flamme

Sunny but cold, still i managed to ride my bicycle to the river and enjoy gazing into water...


----------



## elgar's ghost

I don't mind colder weather at all as long as it remains calm and ice-free. Beautiful day here - minus 2 deg. C, cold and bright with a bit of frost and mist.


----------



## Pugg

It's staying longer light already, thank goodness for small mercies


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Gonna get pummeled tomorrow night through Saturday with snow. Maybe almost 2 feet? That would be impressive. Good thing my state is taking lots of precautions about it, and hopefully there won't be any actual damage, especially from the winds. Power outages from this stuff is _no fun_...


----------



## elgar's ghost

Well, here we Brits were with something approaching normal winter weather this week but come the weekend many of us will be basking in temperatures touching 13 deg. C. - wonder if that might coax out the daffodils already?


----------



## hpowders

It will be getting down to the low 40's tonight (Fahrenheit) where I live.

It could definitely freeze my flute.


----------



## Morimur

It's so funny to watch these Americans in the east coast freak out over a bit of snow. They should spend a winter in Manitoba, Canada.


----------



## hpowders

Morimur said:


> It's so funny to watch these Americans in the east coast freak out over a bit of snow. They should spend a winter in Manitoba, Canada.


Or Calgary! 

I think it's funny for another reason. I live in Florida and snow is basically a rumor/rumour.


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Morimur said:


> It's so funny to watch these Americans in the east coast freak out over a bit of snow. They should spend a winter in Manitoba, Canada.


Where the population density is a 20th of what it is where I live. Yup. You go ahead and enjoy your snow, if you like it so much.


----------



## KenOC

Where I live, the snow stays where it's supposed to be. Up in the ski resorts.


----------



## sospiro

Seriously guys - hope anyone affected by the impending snow storms stay safe and warm. Hope you all have enough heating, light, food, drink and music/opera to while away the time if you're snowed in.


----------



## TxllxT

sospiro said:


> Seriously guys - hope anyone affected by the impending snow storms stay safe and warm. Hope you all have enough heating, light, food, drink and music/opera to while away the time if you're snowed in.


+ a good book like 'The Snow Storm' by Pushkin...


----------



## Jeffrey Smith

hpowders said:


> Or Calgary!
> 
> I think it's funny for another reason. I live in Florida and snow is basically a rumor/rumour.


And to see people on my FB feed running around doing all the things we do to prep for hurricanes, except for running over to Home Depot for plywood. At least in Florida when the hurricanes come, it is hot out, not freezing cold.


----------



## Chi_townPhilly

sospiro said:


> Seriously guys - hope anyone affected by the impending snow storms stay safe and warm. Hope you all have enough heating, light, food, drink and music/opera to while away the time if you're snowed in.


"We've got provisions/and lots of beer!":cheers:
"The keyword is survival on the New Frontier!"

Seriously, this former Chicago boy is gonna be okay- as long as the power holds up...


----------



## TxllxT

Chi_townPhilly said:


> "We've got provisions/and lots of beer!":cheers:
> "The keyword is survival on the New Frontier!"
> 
> Seriously, this former Chicago boy is gonna be okay- as long as the power holds up...


Today I read about an American plane with an emotion turkey flying around in it; I guess such an emotion turkey would be helpful when you get snowed in for many days...


----------



## TxllxT

Are all TC's East Coast Americans snowed in & suffering power cutoffs + shutdowns from the internet?


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> Are all TC's East Coast Americans snowed in & suffering power cutoffs + shutdowns from the internet?


I was just wondering the same question, poor people :tiphat:


----------



## Guest

Chi_townPhilly said:


> "We've got provisions/and lots of beer!":cheers:
> "The keyword is survival on the New Frontier!"


Only if you've got that big blonde with a touch of Tuesday Weld, and room for her to limbo!


----------



## Strange Magic

Here in Nova Caesarea, the power is thankfully still on (knocks wood). Visibility about 200 feet in heavy snow, driven by 20-30 mph winds. About a foot of snow on the ground. Hunkered down.


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

I got picture









Still snowing and wind is blowing snow off the trees and roofs onto the ground, so not yet time to make final inch count. How much does it look? 18"?


----------



## Jeffrey Smith

Pugg said:


> I was just wondering the same question, poor people :tiphat:


The storm is focused on the mid Atlantic states, from North Carolina through New York.

I am in South Florida. Extremely windy today and the overnight low is forecast to be about 45F--which is about as low as it wver gets here.


----------



## isorhythm

TxllxT said:


> Are all TC's East Coast Americans snowed in & suffering power cutoffs + shutdowns from the internet?


No problems here (yet).

But just learned they're shutting down all the above ground trains.

Current prevailing mood: http://www.theonion.com/article/nyc-mayor-reconcile-yourselves-with-your-god-for-a-37850


----------



## arpeggio

*Report from Burke, VA (Fairfax County)*

We are still here. Almost two feet of snow in front yard.


----------



## Pyotr

A real mess here. The south jersey shore beaches are decimated! As well as many of the structures there. Hard to get Federal relief for that since most of those dwellings are second vacation homes. 

On the positive side, the electrical power is still on in my neighborhood but I have my bags packed and ready to stay with relatives if need be. Some of the neighbors have generators/fire places , but I don't.


----------



## hpowders

I just saw video from NYC and this is truly scary. Coming down with incredible intensity. Already close to a foot on the ground with "the worst yet to come".

I remember almost getting stranded during a snow storm near South Hampton way out on Long Island, years back in February-the car was slipping and sliding even though I couldn't have been driving more than 5 mph, and I was worried I would slide down an embankment. No more winter conferences way out on Eastern Long Island after that!

But the worst driving during snow was near Lake Tahoe in the mountains. I didn't think I would make it out alive, going down steep hills covered in ice.


----------



## Ingélou

Really sorry to read about the terrible weather conditions in New York. Best wishes & sympathy - hope things start to improve soon. xx


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

There are indeed power outages happening in my state, not severe ones, but outages nonetheless. It's already well below freezing outside and gonna get colder.

New update (and it still hasn't stopped!):


----------



## Sloe

It was snowing today. Now it is plus and it will rain all next week so I expect the snow to disappear.


----------



## Pyotr

Huilunsoittaja said:


> There are indeed power outages happening in my state, not severe ones, but outages nonetheless. It's already well below freezing outside and gonna get colder.
> 
> New update (and it still hasn't stopped!):
> 
> View attachment 80638


Snow is so beautiful when it first lays...ahhhh.. it's like the world has stood still.


----------



## Pyotr

Ingélou said:


> Really sorry to read about the terrible weather conditions in New York. Best wishes & sympathy - hope things start to improve soon. xx


Not all people were unhappy.



__
http://instagr.am/p/BA5DyQNuiPe/
NYCB reaction during company class when it was announced that both shows for the day were cancelled.


----------



## hpowders

A travel ban is in effect for the entire NYC region and Long Island. This is unprecedented, but I can well understand and respect it.


----------



## arpeggio

*Final Report from Burke*

It has finally ended. Our cars in front of our town home are buried. Over two feet. It will probably be Monday before we can dig ourselves out.


----------



## Taggart

Somebody enjoyed the snow:


----------



## isorhythm

0.1 inches short of the all-time snowfall record here.


----------



## Morimur

Spent four hours shoveling snow today. Not a fan of household chores but nothing beats the satisfaction of a well done job—cleanest property in the neighborhood.


----------



## Pugg

Today is competently changed over here, cloudy, fog and 7 degrees


----------



## trazom

It almost rained yesterday, now it's just back to cool and partly cloudy. Maybe next year it will almost rain again.


----------



## Pugg

trazom said:


> It almost rained yesterday, now it's just back to cool and partly cloudy. Maybe next year it will almost rain again.


Preview for you :lol:


----------



## Ingélou

'Raining *Airedales*' - now* that* would be something! 

It's bright and sunny & deliciously chilly here in Seaside Norfolk.
A couple of days ago it was incredibly dark and gloomy.

Very odd behaviour for Mother Nature...


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Ingélou said:


> Very odd behaviour for Mother Nature...


I'm tempted to make some misogynistic comment about unpredictable females, but ...... I'm not a fan of anthropomorphising inanimate objects :angel:


----------



## Ingélou

Headphone Hermit said:


> I'm tempted to make some misogynistic comment about unpredictable females, but ...... I'm not a fan of anthropomorphising inanimate objects :angel:


Ah well - I'm a retired poetry teacher. I can see I'd have had trouble with you!


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Ingélou said:


> Ah well - I'm a retired poetry teacher. I can see I'd have had trouble with you!


we might *both* have enjoyed it


----------



## TxllxT

Norfolk beach has been hit by a lot of lost sperm whales  Big ones this time!

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-norfolk-35395107


----------



## Taggart

The other three in the pod were found at Skegness in Lincolnshire. Definite shame and a bit of a mystery as to why it happened.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35395369

Apparently a fifth has been found at Wainfleet to the south of Skegness.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-35400884


----------



## Ingélou

TxllxT said:


> Norfolk beach has been hit by a lot of lost sperm whales  Big ones this time!
> 
> http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-norfolk-35395107


Oh dear - so sorry to learn about this. I hate it when whales get stranded. They are such wonderful, intelligent creatures.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

^^^ me too. I really disliked seeing the photos today where some prat had sprayed graffiti on one of them


----------



## Flamme

Some new army sonar??? Pollution, warming??? Here it was sunny and wet, muddy and mildy cold...


----------



## Taggart

Glad to see the the Americans are just as eccentric as we British.


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

^^^ That's what Finns do after being in the sauna, sorta. 

A pick-up truck with a plow came up my road this afternoon, but not even halfway up the road they got stuck, so they left. 

_"We're gonna need a bigger plow"_

Nothing short of a bulldozer, if you ask me. Anything will get stuck out there if it doesn't have big enough wheels.


----------



## Pugg

We had a record yesterday, at the official institute who studying and keeping records about the weather.
They recorded 14 degrees Celsius, the warmest January day ever recorded


----------



## Sloe

Pugg said:


> We had a record yesterday, at the official institute who studying and keeping records about the weather.
> They recorded 14 degrees Celsius, the warmest January day ever recorded


I see Football is a winter sport in The Netherlands so maybe not that odd.
Here it is 4 degrees Celsius quite normal and better than last week when it was minus -19 degrees. The snow is melting now with some rain and fog if the weather remains like this we will have an early spring.


----------



## Pugg

Sloe said:


> I see Football is a winter sport in The Netherlands so maybe not that odd.
> Here it is 4 degrees Celsius quite normal and better than last week when it was minus -19 degrees. The snow is melting now with some rain and fog if the weather remains like this we will have an early spring.


They( the footballers) do have a Christmas break they go on trainings camps in better climate like Portugal, Spain or even Turkey


----------



## Sloe

Pugg said:


> They( the footballers) do have a Christmas break they go on trainings camps in better climate like Portugal, Spain or even Turkey


The real winter usually don´t begin after new year.
January and February are always the worst.


----------



## Pugg

Sloe said:


> The real winter usually don´t begin after new year.
> January and February are always the worst.


Mostly, but I remember some years ago we had even a white Christmas.
On topic, it feels like spring outside .:clap:


----------



## Harmonie

Still no snow here! And the upcoming ten to fifteen days are mostly in the 60s. Getting really tired of this.


----------



## TxllxT

Just saw the Dutch news: for the fourth time flooding in Northwest England.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12121983/uk-weather-flooding-on-tuesday-live.html


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> Just saw the Dutch news: for the fourth time flooding in Northwest England.
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12121983/uk-weather-flooding-on-tuesday-live.html


My parents idea moving to the U.K has set suddenly be on hold, can't blame them


----------



## Headphone Hermit

TxllxT said:


> Just saw the Dutch news: for the fourth time flooding in Northwest England.
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12121983/uk-weather-flooding-on-tuesday-live.html


In fairness, the photo of the bloke hanging onto a signpost is taken in the Kent Estuary - ie it is on the tidal part of the flood plain of the river and this spot floods dozens of times each year when it is high tide. Similarly, strong winds send waves crashing over the sea wall at Blackpool on a pretty regular basis.

The danger with 'over-the-top' stories like this (please, excuse the pun) is that they detract from the seriousness of the issue by focusing on tangential effects and by leading to news-fatigue such that the deep-lying (agh - another awful pun) factors are ignored


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Pugg said:


> My parents idea moving to the U.K has set suddenly be on hold, can't blame them


Well, it isn't like moving the the Ganges Delta - there are plenty of places with very little chance of being flooded. A little detective work, some knowledge of geography and a bit of common sense can help avoid many such issues


----------



## Pugg

Headphone Hermit said:


> Well, it isn't like moving the the Ganges Delta - there are plenty of places with very little chance of being flooded. A little detective work, some knowledge of geography and a bit of common sense can help avoid many such issues


My grandparents are from Manchester and they are going that way to.
My father did spend his working life in Holland and now they are going to his "birth" land


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Pugg said:


> My grandparents are from Manchester and they are going that way to.
> My father did spend his working life in Holland and now they are going to his "birth" land


Manchester is on undulating land - some of it is prone to flooding and other parts could have supported Noah's family without an ark being built :tiphat:


----------



## TurnaboutVox

Pugg said:


> My grandparents are from Manchester and they are going that way to.
> My father did spend his working life in Holland and now they are going to his "birth" land


I'd maybe avoid building your house actually IN the Irwell...


----------



## Pugg

Headphone Hermit said:


> Manchester is on undulating land - some of it is prone to flooding and other parts could have supported Noah's family without an ark being built :tiphat:


A Dutchman build the Ark (same as Noah), it's on it's way to Brazil, in order for the Olympics


----------



## TxllxT

Pugg said:


> A Dutchman build the Ark (same as Noah), it's on it's way to Brazil, in order for the Olympics


When your parents buy a houseboat, they will be safe :angel:


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> When your parents buy a houseboat, they will be safe :angel:


My father spend most off his life in the air, as captain on long haul flight, so I think it will be a solid penthouse


----------



## Pugg

Beware Scotland, Gertrude is going to hit you hard says Carol Kirkwood on BBC breakfast


----------



## Ingélou

In seaside Norfolk it's been a mild day, sometimes sunny, but with astonishing sudden gusts of strong wind.


----------



## hpowders

A warming trend. Yesterday we hit 82 degrees F in the Tampa area. I had to turn on the AC on February 1st!


----------



## TxllxT

Yesterday & today we were on the mainland: Snowdrops, Crocuses & Narcissus flowering or just about to start flowering. Spring is coming.


----------



## Pugg

It's raining, raining and raining


----------



## Badinerie

Winds have died down now, Just flippin cold here in the north east...


----------



## Kivimees

hpowders said:


> A warming trend. Yesterday we hit 82 degrees F in the Tampa area. I had to turn on the AC on February 1st!


We regularly hit 82 degrees* C* in the sauna area.


----------



## hpowders

Kivimees said:


> We regularly hit 82 degrees* C* in the sauna area.


I would melt.


----------



## Pugg

It's grey, _again,_ rain coming again and I can't stand it, although we are heading for the warmest winter on recorded since 1901.
I am sick of it


----------



## Ingélou

Just back from our daily constitutional - a grey, moist day, but still, it was nice to see the blackthorn blossoming early, and when we stopped outside the Flower Shop, there was a wild bee visiting the bouquets in the buckets outside! Lots of birds singing too - possibly nesting - I hope they don't get a nasty frosty surprise later on.


----------



## hpowders

I too. 59 degrees F. Very nice walking weather.


----------



## Pugg

I was just reading that nature is six weeks before the " normal" schedule in my country, ridiculous


----------



## Headphone Hermit

^^^ so, it will be April Fool's Day next weekend ... or Valentine's Day? :devil:


----------



## Pugg

Another stormy night in my part of the county.
Very boring


----------



## Pugg

In my country we have "Carnival" 3 days off drinking ans other naughty things before fasting, Six weeks before Easter.
Lots of street parades , most off them are cancelled due to st strong winds


----------



## Ingélou

It's rainy & blustery in seaside Norfolk - but it's *really bad* in Wales and the Welsh Marches as Storm Imogen kicks in. High waves & winds of 90 mph - a house destroyed on the South Coast - lots of power cuts. 
Hope nothing too awful happens - I feel for those who are in the middle of it.


----------



## Pyotr

Ingélou said:


> It's rainy & blustery in seaside Norfolk - but it's *really bad* in Wales and the Welsh Marches as Storm Imogen kicks in. High waves & winds of 90 mph - a house destroyed on the South Coast - lots of power cuts.
> Hope nothing too awful happens - I feel for those who are in the middle of it.


 sorry to hear that. we just had a major storm last week which damaged the beaches and some coastal homes, which are about 60 miles from myself.

Do you get much snow in that area of the world?

today's been a dreary overcast day with light snow in the forecast , highs in the upper 30's, but, all-in-all, it's been the mildest winter in quite a while. So mild, my wife and I are not really too anxious to leave to our winter retreat in Florida, which we do every year in March.


----------



## Pugg

Living in a older house,wind force 10 Beaufort makes life not easy.

Well it's calmer now so we carry on


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Kivimees said:


> We regularly hit 82 degrees* C* in the sauna area.


Holy cowwww I've only been able to handle like 60-65C in a sauna. Beyond that I can't breathe! How do you do it?


----------



## Kivimees

Huilunsoittaja said:


> Holy cowwww I've only been able to handle like 60-65C in a sauna. Beyond that I can't breathe! How do you do it?


To be honest, 80 C is considered a bit cool - generally the temperature is about 90-95C. How do we do it? Years of conditioning, I guess. :tiphat:


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Kivimees said:


> To be honest, 80 C is considered a bit cool - generally the temperature is about 90-95C. How do we do it? Years of conditioning, I guess. :tiphat:


Yes, I must confess I haven't done it a lot. But is that dry or wet heat? Wet heat at that level must be positively unbearable! I can handle 65C wet heat.


----------



## Kivimees

Huilunsoittaja said:


> Yes, I must confess I haven't done it a lot. But is that dry or wet heat? Wet heat at that level must be positively unbearable! I can handle 65C wet heat.


Estonians tend to prefer their sauna with more steam (leil) than Finns (löyly), but the Finns tend to enjoy higher temperatures. At least this is my experience.


----------



## Ilarion

Well, for fascinating weather phenomena, if you have 5 minutes and 30 seconds to spare in your life, have a seat and marvel at the results in the following video:

https://www.rt.com/news/331840-croa..._medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome


----------



## Pugg

I can tell you, over here : it's pouring buckets, again.


----------



## Belowpar

Pugg said:


> I can tell you over here : it's pouring buckets, again.


Thanks for the warning, I'll pack my galoshes.


----------



## Pugg

Belowpar said:


> Thanks for the warning, I'll pack my galoshes.


You must need them a lot in, your country


----------



## Belowpar

Pugg said:


> You must need them a lot in, your country


Not at all, brollies and raincoats are myths that we encourage to keep the tourist no's down. 
Beautiful blue sky outside my window as I type!

By contrast, my host tomorrow is known for wearing a small wooden boat on each foot.


----------



## Taggart

Belowpar said:


> By contrast, my host tomorrow is known for wearing a small wooden boat on each foot.


A third generation businessman?


----------



## Belowpar

Thanks goodness for Google. I was all at sea.

http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php...he_business_the_second_makes_it_a_success_and

The pertinent bit.

"An older expression-possibly from Lancashire in the 1700s-is "from clogs to clogs in three generations."


----------



## Ingélou

Belowpar said:


> Thanks goodness for Google. I was all at sea.
> 
> http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php...he_business_the_second_makes_it_a_success_and
> 
> The pertinent bit.
> 
> "An older expression-possibly from Lancashire in the 1700s-is "from clogs to clogs in three generations."


Oh thanks - I was at sea myself! (That man can be a mystery!) 

It's been a lovely springlike day today in seaside Norfolk - I even did a bit of long overdue gardening this afternoon.


----------



## Pugg

Belowpar said:


> Not at all, brollies and raincoats are myths that we encourage to keep the tourist no's down.
> Beautiful blue sky outside my window as I type!
> 
> By contrast, my host tomorrow is known for wearing a small wooden boat on each foot.


I do have grandparents in Manchester, I know the wellies to find if necessary


----------



## Belowpar

The weather in Holland today was not that bad for the time of year. With the absence of wind the low temperatures didn't hurt and it only rained for an hour after lunch. Indeed this morning I wished I'd packed sunglasses. 


It's been a couple of years since my last vist and I'd quite forgotten about the abundance of tall females with striking features. 
Happily today it was raining women.


----------



## Pugg

They ( the weather man)promise a good day with sun today, so let it roll I would say :tiphat:


----------



## Pugg

Belowpar said:


> The weather in Holland today was not that bad for the time of year. With the absence of wind the low temperatures didn't hurt and it only rained for an hour after lunch. Indeed this morning I wished I'd packed sunglasses.
> 
> It's been a couple of years since my last vist and I'd quite forgotten about the abundance of tall females with striking features.
> Happily today it was raining women.


Generally , we're heading for the warmest winter since record begone, however, lot's of rain an lot's of hard wind.


----------



## Harmonie

It still isn't cold. We still haven't had a winter storm of any degree whatsoever. And the weather forecast is only showing more warm weather.

I wish the weather forecasters would stop referring to it as "Spring Fever" as if it is some kind of anomaly. It has been warm so much of this 'winter', we might as well just consider it Spring altogether. By the time Spring comes by calendar, it will be hot, either way.


----------



## TxllxT

Tomorrow it will be fine weather for









We'll be heading for Schoorl, North Holland:


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> Tomorrow it will be fine weather for
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We'll be heading for Schoorl, North Holland:


_It is_, a whole dry day,_ unbelievable_ :tiphat:


----------



## Belowpar

Pugg said:


> _It is_, a whole dry day,_ unbelievable_ :tiphat:


Twenty years ago my brother took a year's contract that allowed him to live on the Herrengracht, Amsterdam. As a present we bought him a guide book and on page 1 it said it was the third wettest City in Europe. So we also bought him an umbrella.

It just seems that nobody has told the Dutch?

PS It wasn't raining there when I popped the Question.


----------



## Pugg

Belowpar said:


> Twenty years ago my brother took a year's contract that allowed him to live on the Herrengracht, Amsterdam. As a present we bought him a guide book and on page 1 it said it was the third wettest City in Europe. So we also bought him an umbrella.
> 
> It just seems that nobody has told the Dutch?
> 
> PS It wasn't raining there when I popped the Question.


They do, believe me, I always forget to take it with me, or forgot it's in the back of the car.
Even having 3 doesn't help.


----------



## Pugg

It's being freezing tonight, strange world


----------



## Jeff W

Currently bitterly cold here in Albany. -10 F/-23 C! Good day to stay inside and listen to music!


----------



## Pugg

It's raining, again, it's boring ones brains out


----------



## Jeff W

Pugg said:


> It's raining, again, it's boring ones brains out


All the more reason to stay in and listen to music!


----------



## Belowpar

The weather in Edinburgh was fine today. Crisp and cold with blue skies. 

Lucy's hills, dressed all in white, looked beuatiful.


----------



## Pyotr

*The People vs. Winter*

Sent this link by a friend who lives in Florida. Mean! It's only a little over 3 minutes long. Can anyone identify the music? Feel sorry for the guy at the 1:56 minute mark, Did that ever happen to you?


----------



## Pugg

Almost a whole day sunshine, crispy chill nonetheless :clap:


----------



## Jeffrey Smith

In Miami we had some real fun with the weather this morning. Between downed trees and the overflow of people trying to avoid the big jam on I95, my normal 45 minute morning ride took 75 minutes.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article60600351.html


----------



## Pyotr

Jeffrey Smith said:


> In Miami we had some real fun with the weather this morning. Between downed trees and the overflow of people trying to avoid the big jam on I95, my normal 45 minute morning ride took 75 minutes.
> 
> http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article60600351.html


OMG! That peninsula certainly has some bizarre weather. Stuff like that is almost impossible to predict there.


----------



## starthrower

^^^^
Take me there! Looks like paradise!

February totally sucks around my neck of the woods. Cold and snow almost everyday. And this week it's rain and snow. A complete slush fest! Miserable!


----------



## hpowders

Seventy three degrees Fahrenheit. Not a cloud in the sky.

Glorious for February!


----------



## Taggart

Pyotr said:


> Sent this link by a friend who lives in Florida. Mean! It's only a little over 3 minutes long. Can anyone identify the music? Feel sorry for the guy at the 1:56 minute mark, Did that ever happen to you?


Handel's Coronation Anthem - Zadok the Priest


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Belowpar said:


> Twenty years ago my brother took a year's contract that allowed him to live on the Herrengracht, Amsterdam. As a present we bought him a guide book and on page 1 it said it was the *third wettest City in Europe*. So we also bought him an umbrella.


Rubbish! There are more than three cities in *Lancashire * that get more rain than Amsterdam!


----------



## Headphone Hermit

^^^ and as if by chance .... in today's Lancashire Evening Post ... http://www.lep.co.uk/news/local/preston-s-named-wettest-place-in-england-1-6904390

erm .... not something that I'm especially pleased about, by the way!


----------



## Kivimees

hpowders said:


> Seventy three degrees Fahrenheit. Not a cloud in the sky.
> 
> Glorious for February!


Sir, that's lettuce buying weather. I'm jealous.


----------



## hpowders

Kivimees said:


> Sir, that's lettuce buying weather. I'm jealous.


Yes, it is. Just don't send me to get it!


----------



## elgar's ghost

I have been getting the usual 'snow forecast for UK - temperatures set to plummet' cobblers here on my browser homepage, augmented by a picture of a car stuck in a snowdrift (an archive picture, presumably). Oh, really? Where, then? I may live in a largely low-lying part of the UK which doesn't get wintry conditions as bad as other aeas but we have had no snow at all this winter and temperatures have rarely dropped below freezing. Two days later I see a TV forecast predicting temperatures of up to 14 deg. C within the next couple of days. I suppose in summer we'll get heatwave red alerts when in reality the temperatures barely crawl past the early 20s for long periods.


----------



## TxllxT

Headphone Hermit said:


> Rubbish! There are more than three cities in *Lancashire * that get more rain than Amsterdam!


Wettest?

wet

_adjective_
1.
covered or saturated with water or another liquid.
"she followed, slipping on the wet rock"
_synonyms_:	damp, dampened, moist, moistened; More
2.
BRITISH _informal_
showing a lack of forcefulness or strength of character; feeble.
"they thought the cadets were a bit wet"
_synonyms_:	feeble, silly, weak, foolish, inept, ineffective, ineffectual, effete, soft, namby-pamby, timid, timorous, spiritless, cowardly, spineless; More
_verb_
1.
cover or touch with liquid; moisten.
"he wetted a finger and flicked through the pages"
_synonyms_:	dampen, damp, moisten, humidify; More
noun
1.
liquid that makes something damp.
"I could feel the wet of his tears"
_synonyms_:	wetness, damp, dampness, moisture, moistness; More
2.
BRITISH_ informal_
a person lacking forcefulness or strength of character.
"there are sorts who look like gangsters and sorts who look like wets"
synonyms:	namby-pamby, weakling, milksop, Milquetoast, baby; More


----------



## Headphone Hermit

^^^ Hey! It wasn't *me* that used 'wettest' :scold:

Hahaha! :lol:


----------



## Pugg

Glorious sunshine, but only 4 degrees Celsius


----------



## Pyotr

Taggart said:


> Handel's Coronation Anthem - Zadok the Priest


Thanks, you made me look smart.

From: xxxx xxx [mailto:[email protected]] 
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2016 10:29 PM
To: xxxxx 
Subject: Fwd: brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

I checked with my cousin in Boca and also Ted in Wellington, both live close to West Palm and Ft. Lauderdale and neither were touched by the storm.

BTW very impressive indeed is your knowledge of Handel with dates and facts about his Coronation anthems. All I knew about him was that he wrote The Messiah with the Hallelujah chorus.

Sent from my iPhone
--------------------------------------------
From: Jack Nickelson [mailto:[email protected]] 
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2016 9:30 PM
To: 'XXXX XXX'
Subject: RE: brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

XXXX,

Don't think this has been forgotten. Although she thought it was funny, I thought it was very mean! Sending this to us from your sub-tropical paradise knowing full well we are freezing up north!



By the way, the music is Zadok the Priest , composed by George Frederic Handel for the coronation of King George II in 1727, and is known as one of the Coronation Anthems. Zadok the Priest has been sung at every British coronation during the anointing of the sovereign since 1727.


----------



## Harmonie

Now it's just getting hot.

I literally had to shove all of my comforters and sheets off of my bed to sleep. _In winter_.


----------



## EricABQ

Record or near record highs the last few days. 

75 and sunny in February is hard to complain about. 

Of course, the downside is that it will cause my cherry tree to bloom too early.


----------



## Harmonie

EricABQ said:


> Record or near record highs the last few days.
> 
> 75 and sunny in February is hard to complain about.
> 
> Of course, the downside is that it will cause my cherry tree to bloom too early.


I will - and have - complain(ed) about it. =P


----------



## elgar's ghost

elgars ghost said:


> I have been getting the usual 'snow forecast for UK - temperatures set to plummet' cobblers here on my browser homepage, augmented by a picture of a car stuck in a snowdrift (an archive picture, presumably). Oh, really? Where, then? I may live in a largely low-lying part of the UK which doesn't get wintry conditions as bad as other aeas but we have had no snow at all this winter and temperatures have rarely dropped below freezing. Two days later I see a TV forecast predicting temperatures of up to 14 deg. C within the next couple of days. I suppose in summer we'll get heatwave red alerts when in reality the temperatures barely crawl past the early 20s for long periods.


Here we go again - the Daily Mirror this time (accompanied by a picture of a car driving on the other side of the road in what looks more like a Nordic landscape...):

*Arctic blast - UK temperatures set to drop to -12C*

Click on the headline and what do I then read?

*'There will be some very cold nights ahead with the possibility of wintry showers over high ground...we could see snow in Wales and the Cotswolds...'*

Errrm...not quite the same, is it?


----------



## Pugg

One hour ago the sun was shining like spring, now.......dark and sleet snow :scold:


----------



## EricABQ

One year ago today my wife posted a picture to Facebook showing our backyard covered in about 8 inches of snow.

Today instead of that we will have about 72f and sunny.

Strange stuff.


----------



## Sloe

I had to walk over six kilometres in rain and snow a few days ago.
Not the most pleasant experience. I am so tired of winter.


----------



## Pugg

Sloe said:


> I had to walk over six kilometres in rain and snow a few days ago.
> Not the most pleasant experience. I am so tired of winter.


That's what most people in my country are saying, most of us didn't see any snow at all


----------



## Sloe

Pugg said:


> That's what most people in my country are saying, most of us didn't see any snow at all


It melted away as it fell.
Now it have snowed all night and morning and I think still snowing so it is all white outside. It is plus so it will hopefully melt away.


----------



## Sloe

Now it is officially spring but the nights are still very cold.
It have been snowing a lot the last days. Monday was horrible with all the snow but most of it have melt away. Next week it seems to be warmer.


----------



## Ingélou

We'd planned to go on a day trip to Aldeburgh today, but it was so dark & cold & rainy all day that we stayed in & did crosswords instead.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

^^^ Well, not a bad way to spend such a day.

We had an amazing 'flash' snowfall on Friday. We woke up to falling snow and two inches already lying. It was so warm, however, that all trace of it was gone by lunchtime the same day. 

It rarely snows in Preston (4 times in 20 years, and only once in any significant amount). It's odd after growing up in North East Scotland where it snowed most winters.


----------



## KenOC

Today, on the US East Coast: "Record high in Newark, NJ, for this date as temperature reaches 82 degrees; earliest it has ever reached 80 degrees in city." Meanwhile, loads of rain and flooding in the far South, and temperatures in the 70s and sunny where I am. But expecting showers this weekend and, further north in California, up to six inches of rain and five feet of new snow in the mountains.

Oh, some tornados too. Q: Why is a tornado in Alabama like a divorce in Arkansas? A: Somebody's gonna lose a trailer.


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Went past 80F today here, warmest day of the year so far. Ate dinner with parents outside on our deck for first time to celebrate, and was_ of course_ greeted with great happiness by my Ghost Lover, who only wanted a sip (or 20) of my Sauvignon Blanc... should have expected him


----------



## Belowpar

After three weeks of in depth self funded reseach, I can confirm that the weather in Thailand is currently superior to that in London, Edinburgh and Amsterdam. :tiphat:


----------



## Pugg

The sun is shinning very bright, looks very promising


----------



## Dr Johnson

Spring is surely here.

My neighbour has got his lawnmower out.


----------



## Pugg

A whole garden of daffodils, it's spring!!!!!:cheers:


----------



## Sloe

I went out recently to buy potatoes and milk and for the first time the weather felt mild.


----------



## Taggart

Dr Johnson said:


> Spring is surely here.
> 
> My neighbour has got his lawnmower out.


Ours had his out a couple of weeks ago! Obviously much colder where you are.


----------



## hpowders

Two astonishingly fine weeks-Florida's version of Spring-gone before it hardly began-temps. in the 50's (F) in the morning-terrific walking weather-settling into the very comfortable lower 70's. Couldn't last. It's just now becoming summery-8AM mornings of 75 degrees, afternoons, 85.

We had to set the clocks ahead an hour, so my morning constitututional at 6:30 AM occurs now in complete darkness, but, at least it's around 68 degrees-nice walking weather and no need for sunblock.


----------



## Harmonie

It's supposed to hit the 80s today. We already had to turn the air-conditioner on. For god's sake, winter isn't even supposed to end until March 21st. And the 80s, those are already getting too hot for me.

Everyone's excited about Spring, but as far as I'm concerned, it's already gone when it's hitting the 80s. And it's not like we had a winter. All of the nice "Spring" weather happened in December, January, and February.


----------



## EricABQ

One of the quirks of weather here in New Mexico is that the weather in early spring is much worse than weather in late winter. 

Perfectly nice, sunny days in the mid 60s to low 70s with no wind are replaced with days in the low 60s with ceaseless wind. Early spring is my least favorite season here.


----------



## Pugg

We had a hour ore two sun but the wind is cold, absolutely cold


----------



## Kivimees

With luck, the last of the snow should melt tomorrow. Good-bye snow, hello mud.


----------



## hpowders

Going to 80 degrees F today. Obnoxious little drizzle spoiled my morning constitutional.


----------



## Kivimees

hpowders said:


> Going to 80 degrees F today. Obnoxious little drizzle spoiled my morning constitutional.


The closest I get to a morning constitutional at that temperature is when I spend three hours mowing the lawn. I would be pleased to have an obnoxious little drizzle spoil that.


----------



## hpowders

Kivimees said:


> The closest I get to a morning constitutional at that temperature is when I spend three hours mowing the lawn. I would be pleased to have an obnoxious little drizzle spoil that.


The lawn? I'm not good at that. I was simply created to listen to classical music CD's. I'm good at that.


----------



## Kivimees

hpowders said:


> The lawn? I'm not good at that. I was simply created to listen to classical music CD's. I'm good at that.


Life demands compromises. Long stretches with the lawnmower can damage hearing, so I protect myself while listening to classical music radio with a device that looks like this:









Do you think wearing something like this would attract strange looks from your neighbours?


----------



## sospiro

Yesterday the weather was glorious and I cut my grass for the first time this year. I woke up this morning to wind, rain and cold and even though I'm so stiff I can hardly move I still feel cheated I can't do more outside!


----------



## hpowders

Kivimees said:


> Life demands compromises. Long stretches with the lawnmower can damage hearing, so I protect myself while listening to classical music radio with a device that looks like this:
> 
> View attachment 82924
> 
> 
> Do you think wearing something like this would attract strange looks from your neighbours?


I have a lawn cutting service and yes, the noise from their machines is obnoxiously loud. Sometimes they start at 7:30 AM.
Good thing for them I'm a pacifist!


----------



## Pugg

sospiro said:


> Yesterday the weather was glorious and I cut my grass for the first time this year. I woke up this morning to wind, rain and cold and even though I'm so stiff I can hardly move I still feel cheated I can't do more outside!


Put one nice Carreras disc and all be well again :cheers:


----------



## Kivimees

sospiro said:


> Yesterday the weather was glorious and I cut my grass for the first time this year. I woke up this morning to wind, rain and cold and even though I'm so stiff I can hardly move I still feel cheated I can't do more outside!


No grass to cut here yet, but yesterday was my first day in the garden and I'm stiff and sore too. Going up and down a ladder to prune apple trees is physically a difficult start to the season.


----------



## Kivimees

hpowders said:


> I have a lawn cutting service and yes, the noise from their machines is obnoxiously loud. Sometimes they start at 7:30 AM.
> Good thing for them I'm a pacifist!


My best chance at a lawn cutting service will come when my daughter gets married! :lol:


----------



## TxllxT

Katie has left thousands of Brits flooded & without electricity... Again, again, again

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-35909651


----------



## hpowders

Kivimees said:


> The closest I get to a morning constitutional at that temperature is when I spend three hours mowing the lawn. I would be pleased to have an obnoxious little drizzle spoil that.


I got exhausted just reading this. An energy-sapping tone poem you've created here!


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Kivimees said:


> The closest I get to a morning constitutional at that temperature is when I spend* three hours mowing *the lawn. I would be pleased to have an obnoxious little drizzle spoil that.


It must be absolutely awful to be forced to live in a place with such a big lawn - if I cut each blade of grass on my lawn by hand with a pair of nail scissors, it wouldn't take me three hours

(HH is very envious!)


----------



## Headphone Hermit

TxllxT said:


> Katie has left thousands of Brits flooded & without electricity... Again, again, again
> 
> http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-35909651


No problem in the North West (except cold wind and rain). Was startled to hear bloke on TV grumbling about 'exceptional wind speeds' ..... of the strength that we have a number of times a year - 'southern softies' - hahaha!


----------



## Headphone Hermit

hpowders said:


> I have a lawn cutting service and yes, the noise from their machines is obnoxiously loud. Sometimes they start at 7:30 AM.
> Good thing for them I'm a pacifist!


You could dig it up and put down plastic turf - no watering, no cutting, no weeding ..... and far less grumbling :tiphat:


----------



## TxllxT

Headphone Hermit said:


> No problem in the North West (except cold wind and rain). Was startled to hear bloke on TV grumbling about 'exceptional wind speeds' ..... of the strength that we have a number of times a year - 'southern softies' - hahaha!


In Holland the Meteo forecast has become a religion: code yellow, code orange... We've got encoded completely and indeed, everything is 'exceptional' nowadays.


----------



## Kivimees

Headphone Hermit said:


> It must be absolutely awful to be forced to live in a place with such a big lawn - if I cut each blade of grass on my lawn by hand with a pair of nail scissors, it wouldn't take me three hours
> 
> (HH is very envious!)


It's four hours if I take a beer break. Fortunately, the summer days are very long up here. :lol:


----------



## Dr Johnson

Rain, rain, rain.


----------



## Pugg

Sun, sun, sun :tiphat:


----------



## kartikeys

Humid. The sun made me drink fluid. 
Mind was on an event, escaped the outer weather.


----------



## Ingélou

A lovely sunny start to April here in seaside Norfolk.


----------



## hpowders

Ingélou said:


> A lovely sunny start to April here in seaside Norfolk.


The air must be so nice and clean there by the sea. I used to summer off the Atlantic Ocean on Long Island and the sea breeze and sound of the ocean were so exhilarating. I used to love sitting on the boardwalk right above the beach at night, listening to the waves as the wind tousled my hair.


----------



## Pugg

Another wonderful day to come


----------



## Dr Johnson

It's on days like this that I think I should invest in some deckchairs. Then I look at the price of them. Then it starts to rain and I forget all about it until days like this start the whole cycle off again.


----------



## Pugg

Pugg said:


> Another wonderful day to come


We are still waiting for the sun, not cold but no sun


----------



## Dr Johnson

Pugg said:


> We are still waiting for the sun, not cold but no sun


We've got it! :devil:

Sorry!


----------



## Pugg

Dr Johnson said:


> We've got it! :devil:
> 
> Sorry!


To be fair, you had your fair share off rain last winter also


----------



## Cosmos

There's a light dusting of snow outside! April 2, and it's the first snow in...I want to say a _month_


----------



## Ingélou

Just got back from a pub (fiddle) session deep in the Suffolk countryside - as Taggart & I walked to the carpark, I thought, 'I wish they had lights in this place' and lo, suddenly the whole scene was floodlit & I thought 'Good!' and a second later saw about five forks of lightning in the field ahead, and half a second later we were deafened by a a terrible crash of thunder. And the rain came down. And on our fifty-minute journey home to seaside Norfolk, just as we thought the thunderstorm was over, there'd be a most terrific flash just ahead of us, scaring us out of our wits. Safe home at last, and the rain has continued pounding down & we hear the odd bout of thunder.

Phew!!!


----------



## GreenMamba

Cosmos said:


> There's a light dusting of snow outside! April 2, and it's the first snow in...I want to say a _month_


A bit more than a light dusting here in Western NY. Let the record show it was 68F on Friday. Make up your mind, Mother Nature!

_Winter Storm Warning!
Accumulations: 3 to 5 inches tonight, and 1 to 2 inches Monday, leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches.
Winds: northeast 20 to 30 mph._


----------



## hpowders

Ingélou said:


> Just got back from a pub (fiddle) session deep in the Suffolk countryside - as Taggart & I walked to the carpark, I thought, 'I wish they had lights in this place' and lo, suddenly the whole scene was floodlit & I thought 'Good!' and a second later saw about five forks of lightning in the field ahead, and half a second later we were deafened by a a terrible crash of thunder. And the rain came down. And on our fifty-minute journey home to seaside Norfolk, just as we thought the thunderstorm was over, there'd be a most terrific flash just ahead of us, scaring us out of our wits. Safe home at last, and the rain has continued pounding down & we hear the odd bout of thunder.
> 
> Phew!!!


During the summer in Florida, I have gone through similar scary experiences. Once I was playing golf and a quick moving thunderstorm was quickly upon me. I didn't think I would make it home alive, driving a vulnerable, open golf cart, going so slowly, back home, around 4 long miles with flashes of lightning surrounding me the entire way.


----------



## Pugg

I hope I can believe the weather watchers, another spring like day ahead


----------



## Dr Johnson

Typically treacherous. No sooner have I looked out my summer clothes and dusted off the Panama (hat, not offshore tax haven) than the weather reverts to high winds, rain, lower temperatures.

Mrs Johnson will have to go and redeem my winter underwear from the pawn shop.


----------



## Taggart

Typical British weather - two hot days followed by a thunderstorm.

As the Scots have it - ne'er cast a clout till May be out.


----------



## Guest

We had a thunderstorm booked but it got cancelled.

I'd just let one of the cats out as it was warm and sunny....now I've just let him back in, decorated with large hailstones.
It'll probably be a couple of days of getting the cold shoulder for that.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Taggart said:


> Typical British weather - two *hot* days followed by a thunderstorm.


Tchah - 'hot' isn't typical of the weather in this part of Britain


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Taggart said:


> As the Scots have it - ne'er cast a clout till May be out.


.... and in Lancashire, it is "ne'er cast a clout while May is out"

although opinion is divided as to what this actually means because 'while' can mean 'during' or 'until' as the fancy takes you (and the 'out' can mean 'in flower' or 'has finished flowering' - again, as the fancy takes you) :tiphat:


----------



## Ingélou

Headphone Hermit said:


> .... and in Lancashire, it is "ne'er cast a clout while May is out"
> 
> although opinion is divided as to what this actually means because 'while' can mean 'during' or 'until' as the fancy takes you (and the 'out' can mean 'in flower' or 'has finished flowering' - again, as the fancy takes you) :tiphat:


:tiphat: Suitably dubious then, to match the British weather.


----------



## hpowders

Taggart said:


> Typical British weather - two hot days followed by a thunderstorm.
> 
> As the Scots have it - ne'er cast a clout till May be out.


Better to have you near, than ne'er near.


----------



## Pugg

It's still crispy in the morning but our garden spring to blossom.
The lilac's coming back to life, that's a good sing and such a beautiful sight and smell


----------



## Guest

We're dealing with April showers in Cali.


----------



## Sloe

It was raining a lot last week but the last days it have been nice weather.


----------



## TxllxT

In Moravia the temperatures are +23 degrees Celsius. A pity for all the flowering bulbs & trees, but it's the land climate warming up quickly.


----------



## Ingélou

Most of this week it's been sunny & springlike, but just now we've got the most terrific rain, with thunder, lightning, and hailstones bouncing off the lawn. I can see that the side drain is blocked, and a new lagoon is forming at the back of the garage. My mother's house (three doors away from us) needs some repairs to the roof, but I don't think the roofer will be able to get to us for a while...


----------



## Balthazar

Crazy weather here. Ten days ago we had an inch of snow, and yesterday was 80 F (27 C). We've skipped spring and gone straight into summer....

I took advantage of the fine weather to do one of my favorite spring clean-up tasks -- cutting back the lavender and sage bushes. Smells great!


----------



## Pugg

Crispy start but the weather women promised a very nice spring day in these neck of the woods


----------



## Ingélou

The last three days have been sunny & fresh - utterly lovely, in fact. The dandelions in the niches of my driveway are looking gloriously yellow!


----------



## TxllxT

The weather forecast for Saturday & Sunday: 7 degrees Celsius + sleet!


----------



## hpowders

I love Weather's Die Meistersinger.

Whoops! Didn't have my reading glasses on.

Please excuse!


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> The weather forecast for Saturday & Sunday: 7 degrees Celsius + sleet!


But now 19 Celsius in Rotterdam


----------



## Headphone Hermit

A week on holiday in Sicily at 20-25C, sun, blue skies .... and returned yesterday to Manchester airport with 6 degrees and a rainstorm that soaked us between plane and terminal

Hmmm!


But ... there were no daffodils or magnolias or primroses in Sicily last week


----------



## Pugg

Only 6 Celsius today, the central heating is making overtime


----------



## Sloe

Yesterday and today it was frost in the morning and it even snowed. I know of April weather but snow in late April is just too much.


----------



## Pugg

Look and feels likes late autumn in my neck of the woods


----------



## Pugg

We have a national holiday, the king's birthday, normally good weather, this morning no more then 5 degrees Celsius


----------



## Vaneyes

Pugg said:


> *We have a national holiday, the king's birthday*, normally good weather, this morning no more then 5 degrees Celsius


Freddy Heineken's November 4th.


----------



## Pugg

Vaneyes said:


> Freddy Heineken's November 4th.


No, our King Willem Alexander, yours is a old friend of his mother Queen Beatrix :devil:


----------



## Pugg

The temperature is far below zero at this moment


----------



## Jeffrey Smith

Pugg said:


> The temperature is far below zero at this moment


Contrast. 
As of now, 1PM EDT, the temperature is 88F. (31.1 C)


----------



## Pugg

Jeffrey Smith said:


> Contrast.
> As of now, 1PM EDT, the temperature is 88F. (31.1 C)


It's coming, the weather woman promise 20 Celsius by the end of coming week .


----------



## TxllxT




----------



## Pugg

We had 26 Celsius yesterday :tiphat:


----------



## Ingélou

We've had lovely May weather here in seaside Norfolk - till yesterday when it poured down.

In the evening, after the rain, I popped out and saw that a lot of little white bell flowers had sprung up. I googled them, and they turned out to be 'three-cornered garlic' - the delicate white flowers have six petals each with a green stripe on the inside, and small faintly of garlic. The stem looks & smells a little like spring onions/sybies, but is indeed three-cornered or triangular. According to Wiki, every part of the plant is edible.

Isn't it pretty? I love Nature's Little Surprises. 










There was heavy rain overnight but today, so far, it's a fresh & sunny day again.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

^^^

It looks lovely ... one of 'Nature's Little Surprises' .... but ....

I bet many didn't know that this plant has a little surprise of its own - it is an invasive non-native that doesn't belong in Britain http://www.downgardenservices.org.uk/threecorneredleek.htm and it is listed under Schedule 9 to the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 with respect to England, Wales and Scotland. As such it is an offence to plant or otherwise cause this species to grow in the wild.


----------



## Ingélou

Headphone Hermit said:


> ^^^
> 
> It looks lovely ... one of 'Nature's Little Surprises' .... but ....
> 
> I bet many didn't know that this plant has a little surprise of its own - it is an invasive non-native that doesn't belong in Britain http://www.downgardenservices.org.uk/threecorneredleek.htm and it is listed under Schedule 9 to the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 with respect to England, Wales and Scotland. As such it is an offence to plant or otherwise cause this species to grow *in the wild*.


  
Is it okay in my back garden?


----------



## Pugg

Still lovely weather, alas the weekend weather prognoses: only 11 till 13 Celsius .
That's 10 less then now


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Ingélou said:


> Is it okay in my back garden?


Difficult one with invasive species - they tend to be 'invasive' because they spread so easily and so quickly. I wouldn't put this species in the nightmare category (such as Japanese Knotweed which has cost over a billion pounds to deal with in the UK) but growing invasive species in a garden does pose questions of control - can you stop it from moving out of your garden?

The RHS advise against growing any plants that are known to be non-native invasive species - further info at https://www.rhs.org.uk/advice/profile?PID=530


----------



## Kivimees

Will someone please - PLEASE! - send some rain in this direction?


----------



## Guest

Kivimees said:


> Will someone please - PLEASE! - send some rain in this direction?


You sure can, we've been having plenty in blighty.


----------



## Pugg

Kivimees said:


> Will someone please - PLEASE! - send some rain in this direction?


If I could I would, I am sick off it


----------



## TxllxT

So many floodings everywhere in Europe, the air stays damp & stale like in a cellar.


----------



## Pugg

It's boring grow outside.


----------



## Ingélou

'Flaming June' has got off to a dreary start in the East of England - it's gey chilly & damp!


----------



## Pugg

Ingélou said:


> 'Flaming June' has got off to a dreary start in the East of England - it's gey chilly & damp!


Same old, same old


----------



## Ingélou

It's been nice weather here in seaside Norfolk this week - mostly sunny, always dry, and with a refreshing sea breeze. Inland, at Norwich, it's apparently been hot & humid. We're very lucky here - except that now I have no excuse not to mow my mother's lawn this afternoon...


----------



## Dr Johnson

Ingélou said:


> It's been nice weather here in seaside Norfolk this week - mostly sunny, always dry, and *with a refreshing sea breeze. Inland, at Norwich, it's apparently been hot & humid.* We're very lucky here - except that now I have no excuse not to mow my mother's lawn this afternoon...


I wish there was a refreshing sea breeze a few miles north of Cambridge!


----------



## Pugg

It's not dry and , one of those days if you go out you be wet till your undies .


----------



## TurnaboutVox

It's warm and close and very grey indeed in the Paris of the North (© Clarke's Shoes). It's been very warm here for more than a week now; when the sun breaks through the cloud it has been very pleasant.


----------



## Taggart

Dr Johnson said:


> I wish there was a refreshing sea breeze a few miles north of Cambridge!


Just wait for the rising sea levels. Then Ely will be back to being an island again.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

Hmm. I spoke too soon. Still grey but cool and very, very wet! The broken garden bench will have to wait for a dryer day to be repaired.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Taggart said:


> Just wait for the rising sea levels. Then Ely will be back to being an island again.


In that case I would be beneath the waves, rather than enjoying the breeze coming off them.


----------



## KenOC

Still cool in SoCal, low 70s for a while now, no air con required. Even some light showers at night! The won't last all summer, unfortunately.


----------



## Pugg

KenOC said:


> Still cool in SoCal, low 70s for a while now, no air con required. Even some light showers at night! The won't last all summer, unfortunately.


I do like good he weather but I rather have our weather then always sunshine and air condition.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Pugg said:


> I do like good he weather but I rather have our weather then always sunshine and air condition.


I'd rather have sunshine _without_ humidity, as we did here last year in September and October.


----------



## TxllxT

Today lots of rain sent over from Britain :tiphat: + 15 degrees, Thursday expectation: hot-damp-thunder weather + 24 degrees.


----------



## Pugg

Wet, very wet this moment .


----------



## TxllxT




----------



## Harmonie

It feels like...summer.

Oh well, at least the days are going to start getting shorter now. That's the only way I can look at it to see any bright side.


----------



## Pugg

It pouring buckets in this part of Holland .


----------



## Pugg

Not only heavy rain, thunder and lightning also , it's suppose to be summer.


----------



## Taggart

Same here - typical British summer - two warm (warmish anyway) days followed by a thunderstorm.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Rain, rain, rain.


----------



## Guest

Sun, sun, sun tzu.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Taggart said:


> Same here - typical British summer - two warm (warmish anyway) days followed by a thunderstorm.


Bright sunshine, warm temperature in Lancashire - just been sitting in the garden (in between watering the plants)

No, really - I kid you not - there is sunshine in Lancashire. Yes, really!


----------



## Dr Johnson

Headphone Hermit said:


> Bright sunshine, warm temperature in Lancashire - just been sitting in the garden (in between watering the plants)
> 
> No, really - I kid you not - there is *sunshine in Lancashire.* Yes, really!


Sounds like the title of a film starring Gracie Fields (or George Formby).*

* or both.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

Yes, it's still very warm 20 miles down the M6, HH. I'm listening to Schumann chamber music in the garden as I type...well, you have to enjoy it when you can, which is seldom!


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Dr Johnson said:


> Sounds like the title of a film starring Gracie Fields (or George Formby).*
> 
> * or both.


Aye, 'tis grand out t'day! So warm I've even taken my flat cap off and rolled up my sleeves.

Eeh bah gum! Its gradely to sit in't'garden sipping tea off the saucer listening to Schumann wafting in't wind from Preston


----------



## Dr Johnson

Headphone Hermit said:


> Aye, 'tis grand out t'day! *So warm I've even taken my flat cap off and rolled up my sleeves.*
> 
> Eeh bah gum! Its gradely to sit in't'garden sipping tea off the saucer listening to Schumann wafting in't wind from Preston


Steady on, man! There's no need to behave like a foreigner!

(Meanwhile, here in Cambridgeshire, Jacques Cousteau and Buster Crabbe have surfaced for a brief chat).


----------



## CDs

Big fan of rain (which it is doing right now!). Not a fan of snow or temperatures above 80 degrees fahrenheit. Perfect weather for me is around 55 degrees and rain.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

Q: What is the opposite of Liam Gallagher?
A: Sunshine in Lancashire!


----------



## Dr Johnson

Sunshine over Cambridgeshire (at the moment).


----------



## Pugg

Humid and clouds as far s I can see.


----------



## Headphone Hermit

Dr Johnson said:


> Sunshine over Cambridgeshire (at the moment).


The whole of the UK is under a very dark cloud this morning.

Absolutely appalled by the referendum result. Sad and depressed.


----------



## TxllxT

https://www.rt.com/viral/349034-jetstream-season-shift-equator/

Jetstreams have crossed the equator


----------



## Pugg

It's pouring buckets down here in Rotterdam.


----------



## Ingélou

The last couple of days it's been humid and overcast here in seaside Norfolk - with very occasional spells of sunshine and regular spells of violent rain.


----------



## SiegendesLicht

Yesterday's hurricane over Belarus. Before:









After:

















Time for some snorkeling









I was inside my office watching first the sky grow completely dark, then a waterfall from the sky hit the windows and a tree crash down on the (fortunately almost empty) parking lot.

Today we are expecting more of the same.

Update: and the first peals of thunder have just resounded overhead.


----------



## drpraetorus

Warm to hot and dry here. Currently the Temperature is 90f (32c) 18% humidity. Probably be close to 100 by Wednesday. No rain since back in June.


----------



## Pugg

Temperature is rising quickly, 21 today, coming Wednesday 27 c.


----------



## TxllxT

Yesterday +25 degrees in Piter, today 20 with rain: museum weather. But longterm forecast is splendid: eight days 26 degrees in a row.


----------



## Pugg

The temperature is rising....fast 25 c


----------



## Guest

Strange bright orb sighted in sky over Britain. Scientists unable to confirm what it is, although may be connected with unsettling feeling of what some people are calling "warmth."


----------



## TurnaboutVox

dogen said:


> Strange bright orb sighted in sky over Britain.


Run and hide, it's something to do with that EU.


----------



## Ingélou

dogen said:


> Strange bright orb sighted in sky over Britain. Scientists unable to confirm what it is, although may be connected with unsettling feeling of what some people are calling "warmth."


Yes - it's hovering here too. Odd.


----------



## Dr Johnson

It's just started to rain. 

I think I may go out and stand in it.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Pugg said:


> Temperature is rising quickly, 21 today, coming Wednesday 27 c.


Where I am that would be a nice temp. It hit 99F today.


----------



## Ingélou

It's been hot and humid for the past three days, except on Great Yarmouth North Beach.
However, it's cooler this morning and much pleasanter.


----------



## Pugg

Ingélou said:


> It's been hot and humid for the past three days, except on Great Yarmouth North Beach.
> However, it's cooler this morning and much pleasanter.


We had the same but as I type this the sun is coming out very bright, expected temperature 28 c today.


----------



## KenOC

Close to 100 F today, but the humidity was low. Into the low 80s by Monday, we are told. Not too bad here.


----------



## Guest

Starting this Sunday, my area of CA is looking at a week of 100F (or hotter) days.


----------



## Pugg

Kontrapunctus said:


> Starting this Sunday, my area of CA is looking at a week of 100F (or hotter) days.


Holiday people in my country will be so jealous.


----------



## Dr Johnson

As dark as Egypt's night* here.

Rain, drizzle, cloud.





* as my granny used to say.


----------



## Pugg

One of those days when in late September you be happy with, not the first week of August.


----------



## TxllxT

Here the saying goes: after the prohet Ilyia (Eliah) the day is starting to shorten. Yesterday evening we had this autumn feeling all of a sudden (a shiver of cold). Today 22 degrees with sunny spells in the afternoon: walking weather.


----------



## Taggart

Sometimes the weather can be very funny:


----------



## Ingélou

Hot but overcast here in seaside Norfolk - but it hasn't rained *yet*.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

We've been jealous of the warmth reported from the South-East of England recently. Lancashire has been incredibly gloomy for about a week, cool, wet and windy for the most part, 16 - 18C during the day.

I've been told to expect 12 - 14, maybe as much as 16C in Lerwick next week. A fine summer's day there!


----------



## Poodle

TurnaboutVox said:


> We've been jealous of the warmth reported from the South-East of England recently. Lancashire has been incredibly gloomy for about a week, cool, wet and windy for the most part, 16 - 18C during the day.
> 
> I've been told to expect 12 - 14, maybe as much as 16C in Lerwick next week. A fine summer's day there!


I have more warmth over here than you ever will, it's a lesson we all learn sometime :tiphat:


----------



## Pugg

Overclouded and humid Rotterdam reporting.


----------



## Potiphera

I think we have all had moments like that, where we found something highly amusing and found it hard to contain our laughter. Can be very embarrassing. It happened to me a couple of times at work.


----------



## TxllxT

Today I ordered an new digital weather station, because the wireless little white box outside went dead all of a sudden. This station lasted just three years and the same trouble I remember from the one before this one. Does anyone of you (TC weather addicts) have experience with a better quality weather station?


----------



## Pugg

Rotterdam, 16 Celsius and rain forecast for the whole day.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Bloody raining here too.


----------



## Potiphera

Slightly overcast, but some rain would be welcome for the garden.


----------



## Ingélou

Rain here too & it's turned colder.


----------



## Tristan

It's always cloudy in the morning here, it seems. I don't like that much, but that's part of living near the ocean.

By noon it's sunny and beautiful blue sky, with highs in the mid 70s. California weather


----------



## KenOC

Two current headlines, not encouraging for our East Coasters: "Excessive heat warning for large portions of Atlantic seaboard in Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania warns of heat indexes of 100-107 degrees through Saturday evening", and "Scientists record 83.3 degree Fahrenheit water temperature Wednesday at Atlantic City Marina in New Jersey, a new record."


----------



## Art Rock

Pure autumn today here. Bah.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Ingélou said:


> Rain here too & it's turned colder.


Better here now.


----------



## Pugg

Dr Johnson said:


> Better here now.


Here too, bit clouded but sun is coming .


----------



## Potiphera

Ah, cup of tea, feet up, and just relaxing on this lovely breezy, balmy summer evening. 
It won't last though!


----------



## Judith

Typical British Summer. Spent yesterday huddled over a log fire in a pub when we should have been in a t-shirt and shorts.


----------



## Ingélou

Judith said:


> Typical British Summer. Spent yesterday huddled over a log fire in a pub when we should have been in a t-shirt and shorts.


That was what it was like here yesterday in seaside Norfolk. I put a warmer nightie on last night. But today it's been sunny & almost too hot. We'll be spending some days in Yorkshire later this month, though, so I'll remember to pack some woollies!


----------



## isorhythm

KenOC said:


> Two current headlines, not encouraging for our East Coasters: "Excessive heat warning for large portions of Atlantic seaboard in Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania warns of heat indexes of 100-107 degrees through Saturday evening", and "Scientists record 83.3 degree Fahrenheit water temperature Wednesday at Atlantic City Marina in New Jersey, a new record."


Yes. It is bad.


----------



## KenOC

And in Dallas, Texas it's 107.


----------



## Balthazar

We're getting the first substantial rainfall in months here in lower Michigan. (Lawns have been looking pretty crispy.)

As if in celebration, a young skunk woke up early and is enjoying a wet breakfast beneath the bird feeder.


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

A little heat wave in Toronto. Low 30s C but feels like low 40s C with the humidex.


----------



## Pugg

Looks promising this day 2 Celsius and upcoming week 27 Celsius expected.:clap:


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Rained last night, nothing like they got in Louisana.


----------



## KenOC

A hot, wet summer for much of the US continues. From the National Weather Service: "Copious moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will bring several rounds of heavy rain to the central Gulf Coast states through the weekend, and significant flash flooding is possible. Additional heavy rain chances will extend from southwest TX all the way to northern New England on Saturday. By Sunday, the mid-Miss. Valley will see a significant threat of flash flooding."


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Getting a nice afternoon rain shower it has been a couple of dry months for central Texas.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

In transit today from Shetland, UK (11C, heavy fog) to balmy Orkney, UK (12C, rain, mist). But it is alleged that it will brighten and warm up this week. We shall see...


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Must be nice to be that cool. Here in C Texas it is 76 with today's low being 73.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

Johnnie Burgess said:


> Must be nice to be that cool. Here in C Texas it is 76 with today's low being 73.


It's actually fairly pleasant, though outside we're dressed for warmth and waterproofness. It doesn't get much cooler at night (10 - 11C). A good warm summer's day here would be about 16 - 18C but it is often cooler. Shetland is on the 60th parallel north and Orkney on the 59th but both are warmed by the Gulf stream.


----------



## Pugg

Doors wide open, sitting on the terrace music on, life is good .


----------



## Guest

California is being scorched by a heat wave. I've lost track of how many 100F or higher we've had in the last month. At the moment it's a comparatively chilly 98...


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

It is cloudy and humid to day.


----------



## KenOC

Lot o' rain down south. Here's a street scene in Baton Rouge.


----------



## Pugg

Kontrapunctus said:


> California is being scorched by a heat wave. I've lost track of how many 100F or higher we've had in the last month. At the moment it's a comparatively chilly 98...


Can't even remember when the last time was we had a real heath wave, not juts two hot day.


----------



## KenOC

Kontrapunctus said:


> California is being scorched by a heat wave. I've lost track of how many 100F or higher we've had in the last month. At the moment it's a comparatively chilly 98...


Not bad in Socal. Mostly in the low 80s, low humidity. Heat wave tomorrow at 90, then back to the 80s. The central valley in California has really hot summers, lots of days over a hundred. I used to live in Sacramento and saw as high as 114F. Sacramento's motto: "But it's a dry heat." Which is true.


----------



## Pugg

Bright sunshine again, happy days :angel:


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Not bad in Socal. Mostly in the low 80s, low humidity. Heat wave tomorrow at 90, then back to the 80s. The central valley in California has really hot summers, lots of days over a hundred. I used to live in Sacramento and saw as high as 114F. Sacramento's motto: "But it's a dry heat." Which is true.


I'm just a little west of Sacramento--we've had several days of well over 100--I think 109 is the hottest so far, but I recall many days of over 110 in the past, and I think the humidity level has crept up over the years, so it's not quite such a dry heat as in the past.


----------



## Pugg

It's official, the weather man says we can complain, worst summer since 1996 .


----------



## Harmonie

It's hot, but not as hot as it could be. Remarkably yesterday it remained in the low to mid 70s all day with clouds. Those only happen once in a blue moon in the summer where I live. It was a great way to start off classes and all of that walking!


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Wet and rainy in Central Texas today. Maybe the drought is over.


----------



## KenOC

Here, it was 91F today. Heat wave! But now, back to the low 80s. Our summer is quite mild, although things are burning up with great vigor to the northeast of where we are. Yes, it's been a bit dry, and the "official" fire season is still a month off.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Pugg said:


> It's official, the weather man says we can complain, worst summer since 1996 .


Oh dear! And you only a few miles away across the North Sea.

This summer has been better than last here.


----------



## Pugg

Another 25 Celsius is upcoming, we are spoiled .


----------



## Dr Johnson

Pugg said:


> Another 25 Celsius is upcoming, we are spoiled .


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

More rain today, and parts of the county I live is under flash flood watch.


----------



## Pugg

Dr Johnson said:


>


This is my favourite from across the pond to the U.K.

​
Carol Kirkwood.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Dear old Carol.

Years ago, there was a cable channel called L!ve TV here which had the weather in Norwegian:






They also had a feature called "Topless Darts". Happy days.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Rain, rain, rain.


----------



## Pugg

They "promised" rain, the sun is out rather bright though.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Currently, the sun is shining. 

And it's raining.


----------



## Ingélou

Dr Johnson said:


> Currently, the sun is shining.
> 
> And it's raining.


So - is there a rainbow? :angel:


----------



## Dr Johnson

Ingélou said:


> So - is there a rainbow? :angel:


I went outside to look a second ago, but it has stopped raining and there was no sign of a rainbow.

Sorry.


----------



## Pugg

Dr Johnson said:


> Rain, rain, rain.


This, today, it's coming down heavy


----------



## Ingélou

There are grey clouds in the sky, but the day has started well in seaside Norfolk - sunny & fresh.


----------



## TxllxT

Ingélou said:


> There are grey clouds in the sky, but the day has started well in seaside Norfolk - sunny & fresh.


The Texel weather comes from Norfolk today


----------



## Pugg

Two days of very hot weather coming up, up to 34 Celsius, we are spoiled this summer.


----------



## KenOC

We're in a long stretch of ~80F highs, very pleasant with sea breezes. Below normal by a bit. Little to complain about here.


----------



## TxllxT

With this weather we'll walk this afternoon around the southern point of Texel (on the right side in the photo): a true desert experience!


----------



## Pugg

35 Celsius in the shade .


----------



## hpowders

It was 6:03 AM. Birds still sleeping. Pitch dark. 76 degrees Fahrenheit. Gentle breeze. Went for a quiet peaceful walk. The way I like it. Can't double down this afternoon. It will simply be too hot.


----------



## Sloe

Really hot the sun is shining.


----------



## Ingélou

Yep - it's hot. 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~


----------



## sospiro

Raining and chilly here; electric blanket will be on tonight. Mind you it has to be exceptionally warm for the blanket _not_ to be on.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

Mrs. Vox, Voxette and Physics Boy report 28C in London. More like 15C here, dark, gloomy and overcast too.


----------



## Pugg

Another very warm day ahead, lovely.


----------



## sospiro

Pugg said:


> Another very warm day ahead, lovely.


It had better stay that way until I get there or I'll complain.


----------



## TxllxT

sospiro said:


> It had better stay that way until I get there or I'll complain.


The summer is staying in Holland: next week forecast again +25 degrees (but not +30 ).


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> The summer is staying in Holland: next week forecast again +25 degrees (but not +30 ).


I do think that the city is always somewhat warmer then Texel.


----------



## sospiro

TxllxT said:


> The summer is staying in Holland: next week forecast again +25 degrees (but not +30 ).


It had better stay like that until October


----------



## Ingélou

Hot again - we have just had to get a man to deal with a wasps' nest in our air brick. 
It's insufferable in the house, but there's usually a nice breeze by the seashore. Yesterday evening we went for a walk along the pier and it was beautiful, looking back at the harbour and ahead out to sea.


----------



## Pugg

sospiro said:


> It had better stay like that until October


I wish you (and Holland in general ) well at that time .


----------



## sospiro

Ingélou said:


> Hot again - we have just had to get a man to deal with a wasps' nest in our air brick.
> It's insufferable in the house, but there's usually a nice breeze by the seashore. Yesterday evening we went for a walk along the pier and it was beautiful, looking back at the harbour and ahead out to sea.


Fabulous photos and what a lovely place to live.

Hope the wasps have been given a stern talking to - that's what happens isn't it?


----------



## Pugg

The sun was coming up, now in about 6 minutes, it's almost dark and thunder and lightning in the distance


----------



## Pugg

Mini heatwave alerts in my Country, up to 30 Celsius .


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

End of winter early spring and its 30 Celsius here


----------



## KenOC

Our overall mild summer continues in SoCal. Temps in the high 70s F for the next week, onshore breezes, moderate humidity. I'm feeling lucky.


----------



## MoonlightSonata

Spring is starting, and the weather has been very changeable. I left cold and windy weather in Napier yesterday to go to Auckland, and upon my return it was lovely and warm.


----------



## Ingélou

It's very variable here in seaside Norfolk. Sometimes it feels sticky-hot, but at other times there's mild rain and the freshness of Autumn in the air.


----------



## Merl

Absolutely ***** Summer up here in Chillyjockoland but currently that big, round, yellowy ball has appeared in the sky and my poor plants are making the most of it. Probably wont last long as it's rained almost non-stop for most of the summer up here in Fife.


----------



## Ginger

Merl said:


> Absolutely ***** Summer up here in Chillyjockoland but currently that big, round, yellowy ball has appeared in the sky and my poor plants are making the most of it. Probably wont last long as it's rained almost non-stop for most of the summer up here in Fife.


I went to Scotland in July and we had (surpriiiiise  ) two weeks of pure liquid sunshine...


----------



## Merl

Ginger said:


> I went to Scotland in July and we had (surpriiiiise  ) two weeks of pure liquid sunshine...


That must have been when I was on holiday in Spain. Lol


----------



## Taggart

Ginger said:


> I went to Scotland in July and we had (surpriiiiise  ) two weeks of pure liquid sunshine...


Yes the whisky is always delightful.


----------



## TxllxT

Today beach weather, tomorrow beach weather, day after tomorrow: beach weather. :tiphat:


----------



## Ingélou

Very hot today. We went to Southwold and even by the sea it was hot. The temperature on our car thermometer said 31 degrees. Too hot for me.

Reminds me of 'A Palindromic Conversation between Two Owls' that I remember reading in Dad's New Statesman (the weekend competition) when I was sixteen:

"Too hot to hoot!"
"Too hot to woo!"
"Too wot?"
"Too hot to hoot!"
"To woo!"
"Too wot?"
"To hoot! Too hot to hoot!"

(George Marvill)


----------



## Pugg

The last day of this "Indian summer" 30 Celsius , tomorrow 20 Celsius.


----------



## Ingélou

A perfect day today in seaside Norfolk - sunny & fair and not too hot. 
Carpe diem!


----------



## Pugg

Same in Rotterdam, won't last though.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Still getting a pasting.................


----------



## Harmonie

It's um... not _terrible_, but still sunny and too warm for me.

This is the one day I'd wish for no breeze, because I have an outdoor concert, and I'm nervous enough to also worry about my music blowing off the stands and having to improvise my solos.


----------



## Sloe

It have been really wild and crazy rain but it is still warm I hope that I will get time to go and swim again before it gets colder.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Still getting a pasting.................


Pasting has past for now but what a mess for a desserty state/ place- whole state lost power of 8hours 1.7mil people- small place hey but big in area........... Was thinking a diggin hole in Coober Pedy


----------



## Pugg

It's pouring buckets rain down here.


----------



## Sloe

Summer is over 3 degrees celsius last night.


----------



## Pugg

Sloe said:


> Summer is over 3 degrees celsius last night.


Time for the winter duvet.


----------



## TxllxT

*Weather calamity in St Petersburg*




























About four years no snow at all, but today a traffic breakdown because of heavy snowfall.


----------



## Pugg

First night frost down here.


----------



## Dave Whitmore

We've had a mild Fall but sadly that seems about to change. Last Christmas Eve it was warm enough (72 degrees I think) I was able to go running in shorts and t-shirt. This Christmas that probably won't happen. We might even get a dusting of snow tonight.


----------



## Pugg

It's f#cking freezing out there - 7 Celsius


----------



## Jos

Superb weather here today. About -2, clear blue sky and sunny.
Went for long walk, my dog always goes a bit crazy in that cold, crisp weather.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

It's f#cking hot out here 41 Celsius


----------



## hpowders

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> It's f#cking hot out here 41 Celsius


So you folks do fracking too. Good for getting the best oil.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

hpowders said:


> So you folks do fracking too. Good for getting the best oil.


Seems to produce a lot of gas though..............


----------



## Sloe

The weather is really odd now one day +9 degrees celsius next day below freezing point.


----------



## Bettina

I live in California--there's basically no wintertime here! Today the temperature is in the mid-50s...quite warm compared to the East Coast where I used to live.

Schubert would never have written _Winterreise _if he had lived in California.


----------



## hpowders

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Seems to produce a lot of gas though..............


I frackin' hate carbon emissions. Other emissions I'm okay with.


----------



## Pugg

Sloe said:


> The weather is really odd now one day +9 degrees celsius next day below freezing point.


You must be in Europe somewhere.


----------



## senza sordino

Nine inches of snow in my garden on Saturday. Then it snowed again this morning. 
View attachment 90763


----------



## Pugg

senza sordino said:


> Nine inches of snow in my garden on Saturday. Then it snowed again this morning.
> View attachment 90763


Is this for real?
Looking wonderful but my country stands still if we have one week of that.
( complainers by nature)


----------



## senza sordino

Pugg said:


> Is this for real?
> Looking wonderful but my country stands still if we have one week of that.
> ( complainers by nature)


Yes, this is for real. It's the most snow in a decade. At times last week, this town did come to a stand still. A major bridge has been closed a couple of times in three days as ice has fallen onto cars and cracked windshields. I walk to work, it takes 30 minutes. Some of my colleagues have taken two to three hours to get home and drive to work, two to three times longer.


----------



## TxllxT

The Czech meteo predict a white frosty X-mas.

https://www.novinky.cz/vanoce/423477-letos-by-to-mohlo-klapnout-vanoce-by-mely-byt-bile-a-mrazive.html


----------



## Pugg

It is so grey outside, I cant see the end of our garden.....


----------



## SiegendesLicht

senza sordino said:


> Nine inches of snow in my garden on Saturday. Then it snowed again this morning.
> View attachment 90763


Same here, and it is snowing some more. A normal Belarusian winter. People here complain when it does NOT snow around Christmas season.


----------



## Dr Johnson

A bit unsettled here today. Probably stay indoors.


----------



## hpowders

Dr Johnson said:


> A bit unsettled here today. Probably stay indoors.


Looks like a storm of biblical proportions. Handel should write an oratorio...


----------



## Nate Miller

Its cold. There's just a dusting of snow, but my lake is completely frozen over. For it to completely freeze over before Christmas is generally a good sign that its going to be cold this year. Late this week we get our first real cold snap. 

I might even get to play hockey this weekend, but I'm not going to be too anxious. Going through the ice in full hockey gear isn't nearly as much fun as it sounds :lol:


----------



## starthrower

Arctic cold front arriving Wed night. Should be around 12 degrees F. Thursday morning. I hope my diesel truck starts at 2am for my mail run. You can thank me when you start receiving your Christmas cards and gifts! I'm glad I'm in the truck. The little worker ants at the main hub are sorting hundreds of thousands of letters 12 hours a day and night. I get to drop off my bulk mail and go home.


----------



## hpowders

Nate Miller said:


> Its cold. There's just a dusting of snow, but my lake is completely frozen over. For it to completely freeze over before Christmas is generally a good sign that its going to be cold this year. Late this week we get our first real cold snap.
> 
> I might even get to play hockey this weekend, but I'm not going to be too anxious. Going through the ice in full hockey gear isn't nearly as much fun as it sounds :lol:


Tonsil or regular hockey?


----------



## hpowders

Right now in the middle of December it's 81 degrees...a summer day. In Florida we have very mild weather all year round. Snow is unheard of.

Here Santa Claus wears Bermuda Shorts, but that doesn't fool me. I know the real Santa wears pants. 
They think hpowders is stupid?


----------



## Nate Miller

hpowders said:


> Tonsil or regular hockey?


actual ice hockey. I live on a small lake

they play more tonsil hockey down south


----------



## hpowders

Nate Miller said:


> actual ice hockey. I live on a small lake
> 
> they play more tonsil hockey down south


Brings me nostalgically back to my misspent youth. LOL!!


----------



## SiegendesLicht

-21 C and sunshine here today. I am planning to go for a walk in the snow soon.


----------



## Pugg

-10 C and sleet snow predicted.


----------



## Retrograde Inversion

Rather an unimpressive summer here, so far, but we don't usually get our best weather till February. Another mixed outlook for the weekend, although really, I don't think the weather people actually have much clue about our weather, in spite of all their fancy computer models. For all the accuracy of their forecasts, they might as well be using tea leaves and chicken entrails...


----------



## Harmonie

It snowed. Maybe about one inch or less.

All of the local schools closed down, including the colleges. What is this? - Florida? Even six years ago, I had to go to classes with a foot of snow and temperatures well below 0F.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

10.15am here and its 36C already, gunna melt today..........

Maybe I could swap some snow for heat!


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Its now 3.30pm and its 42C in the shade and about 48C on thermometer round near my pool- thinking its swimming time...
No snow is gunna help here


----------



## Pugg

It snowed out here, poor paper woman....


----------



## Pugg

Hello Scotland.......how are you holding up with the weather, is it as bad as Carol Kirkwood saying up there?


----------



## TxllxT

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/09/us/pioneer-cabin-tree-sequoia.html?_r=0

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-26/uluru-closed-homes-damaged-by-flashfloods-in-central-australia/8148430

California and Australia finally get the lots & lots of water, that people were longing & praying for. Sorry for the famous tree...


----------



## Pat Fairlea

Pugg said:


> Hello Scotland.......how are you holding up with the weather, is it as bad as Carol Kirkwood saying up there?


Friends in Scotland say it's a bit lively up there. Here in Yorkshire, we had a noisy, wild night with occasional lashings of rain. A few trees blown over hereabouts, including a very fine old alder.


----------



## TxllxT

http://mashable.com/2017/02/06/storm-will-warm-north-pole-melting-point/#VSFZnHM1naqt

The North Pole is melting


----------



## Pugg

Sleet snow and minus 6 C in Rotterdam


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Damn 42 deg C here again..........................


----------



## Pugg

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Damn 42 deg C here again..........................


Keep the fluids coming Eddie and do not get a sunstroke.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Pugg said:


> Keep the fluids coming Eddie and do not get a sunstroke.


Got plenty of xxxx on the ready


----------



## Pugg

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Got plenty of xxxx on the ready


Other brands available.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Pugg said:


> Other brands available.


Without the XXXX you mean.............


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

More XXXX today as still 42deg C


----------



## Vaneyes

Is global warming still trumping global cooling?


----------



## Pugg

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> More XXXX today as still 42deg C


Rub it in why don't you, it's freezing could outside.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Pugg said:


> Rub it in why don't you, it's freezing could outside.


but I'm melting like the wicked witch, Come here, Toto... ! send me some freezing :lol:


----------



## znapschatz

After unseasonably warm, it snowed last night. I prefer warm, quite honestly, but I'll take what I can get  .


----------



## Varick

Yes very warm day here yesterday: 60F (15.5C). Today, I am home because of a snow storm. Still coming down and its now 30F (1C) outside. Expecting 10 - 12 inches (25 - 30 cm) by the end of the day.

I don't know why, but it does seem like we have become bigger and bigger wussies when it comes to snow since I was a child. 9 or so inches would mean a one or two hour school delay. 3 or 4 inches now and the entire county shuts down. In the past 10 years I've seen schools close because of snow IN THE FORCAST! Not a single flake had dropped yet (and we all know how accurate weather forecasts are ).

I have heard meteorologists calling less than 12 inches of snow a "blizzard?" Really??? Now I'm no meteorologist, but have they lowered the criteria for some of these terms? I don't remember hearing them 30 or so years ago. And then you turn on the news and they talk about the snow storm as if armageddon has arrived and we're all going to be stuck in our houses for weeks with no chance of rescue. They have become absolutely hysterical when it comes to snow. At least that's been my observation.

V


----------



## Varick

This guy Vic did this video that so perfectly illustrates the hysteria that has surrounded any forecast of snow these days. He nailed it!






V


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Still melting like the wicked witch here 44 Deg C and too hot to even get in the pool- would get burned to crisp.......


----------



## Dan Ante

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Still melting like the wicked witch here 44 Deg C and too hot to even get in the pool- would get burned to crisp.......


Sounds like an excuse for a couple of cold ones :lol:


----------



## Krummhorn

20°(f) above normal in my region ... supposed to be warmer on Friday at 88°(f) ... very very unusual for this time of the year. Hopefully not a prelude for our wickedly hot summers.

Just came back from a three day respite in the White Mountains (Arizona) ... lots of snow still on the ground in the forest back woods areas.


----------



## Pugg

It's freezing again outside


----------



## Bulldog

Varick said:


> I have heard meteorologists calling less than 12 inches of snow a "blizzard?" Really???


It's not the amount of snowfall that is the controlling factor. Sustained winds of at least 35 mph are required. But I do agree that the media makes a bigger deal out of these storms than in the past.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Dan Ante said:


> Sounds like an excuse for a couple of cold ones :lol:


Yep in the end I spent the afternoon in the pool with a feeeeeeeeeeeeew cold ones


----------



## Dr Johnson

Cold, cold, cold.


----------



## Pugg

Cold again, grey, sleet snow on the way......


----------



## Dan Ante

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Yep in the end I spent the afternoon in the pool with a feeeeeeeeeeeeew cold ones


I heard on the TV that NSW is expecting about 46 deg C today.


----------



## Ingélou

Pugg said:


> Cold again, grey, sleet snow on the way......


Only the odd flake of 'wintry showers', but otherwise, it's just the same in Norfolk just across the sea from the Netherlands - cold, grey & miserable.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Dan Ante said:


> I heard on the TV that NSW is expecting about 46 deg C today.


Correct, they are lucky only one day a over 40C, looks like we will be 44C again for the 4 day in a row, more pool time and Goldies...............

Should have mentioned the thermometer next to pool was on 120F 50C yesterday bl**dy hell it was and no way getting out of the pool - should have taken a pic but the camera may have melted......


----------



## stejo

Just -4 C in stckholm, but this wind from Baltic sea coming in is Cold.... 
Really waiting for the Lark ascending...


----------



## Harmonie

Way too warm, fringing on hot. Tomorrow it _will_ be hot.

I hate living here so much. I'm so done. If I wanted it to be hot during the winter, I would live in Florida. I don't.


----------



## Varick

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Correct, they are lucky only one day a over 40C, looks like we will be 44C again for the 4 day in a row, more pool time and Goldies...............
> 
> Should have mentioned the thermometer next to pool was on 120F 50C yesterday bl**dy hell it was and no way getting out of the pool - should have taken a pic but the camera may have melted......


Jeez, where are you, on the Equator or planet Mercury?

V


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Varick said:


> Jeez, where are you, on the Equator or planet Mercury?
> 
> V


No, just the Land of Oz
Looks like its pool time again today 1pm and sizzlin.........


----------



## Dan Ante

Eddie's of to see the Wizard......


----------



## Pugg

We have 5 centimetres of snow....


----------



## atsizat

Here is 3.3℃ right now. I am living in a hot city. I dislike living in a hot city. They say it will snow tomorrow but I don't think the ground will get white at all. The ground can hardly get white in winter here. I dislike oceanic temperate climate.

Edit:

Meteorology changed its mind. It now says it will rain mixed with snow tomorrow. 

The temperature is 2.8℃ right now.


----------



## Guest

California is FINALLY getting some relief from the constant rainstorms. Can't we have something between a drought and a flood?


----------



## Dan Ante

Kontrapunctus said:


> California is FINALLY getting some relief from the constant rainstorms. Can't we have something between a drought and a flood?


Only if you come to NZ....


----------



## TxllxT

Oroville dam area: 220% more rainfall than normal...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/13/lake-oroville-thousands-evacuated-part-tallest-dam-us-fail


----------



## Pugg

The sun is shining like it's summer, only north easterly wind makes it feel cold.


----------



## atsizat

Here is 0℃ right now. I did walking. Since the air is open, It cannot snow. I dislike oceanic temperate climate.


----------



## Harmonie

It's nice and chilly with light rain. It's pretty outside today. Too bad it won't last. The plants are already turning green. Yuck. Does winter not mean anything anymore?


----------



## KenOC

Today they're forecasting 4 inches of rain on Friday for our rather arid location down here in SoCal. I've never seen a forecast like that! It's about a third of our annual average rainfall, and we've already passed that.

Maybe this will mean less rain up north and help address the dicey situation at the Oroville Dam.


----------



## Ingélou

It's been wonderfully mild and sunny for the past two days in seaside Norfolk. I remember once reading that St Valentine's Day is connected with love because it's believed that around this time, birds choose their mates - and that there's often a mild spell at this time of year, which would be the rationale behind it.


----------



## Pugg

Two spring days predicted, let's hope they are right.


----------



## KenOC

It's been showering all morning with blustery winds. The radar shows the main storm front about an hour away, moving directly east towards us. We may get half a year's worth of rain out of this one! Just hope we don't lose power -- Laguna Beach already has.


----------



## KenOC

OK, the deluge is ended. We have about 2" with showers, some heavy, forecast through tomorrow. Power is still on. Lots of freeways flooded, some people still trying to get home after work.


----------



## Pugg

It feels like spring over here, I opened up the doors from the conservatory, bit of fresh air .


----------



## TxllxT




----------



## SiegendesLicht

Pugg said:


> It feels like spring over here, I opened up the doors from the conservatory, bit of fresh air .


It feels like spring in Hamburg too, including the rain. Back in my native Minsk piles of snow line the streets - and here it is like April. _Winterstürme wichen dem Wonnemond..._


----------



## Pugg

SiegendesLicht said:


> It feels like spring in Hamburg too, including the rain. Back in my native Minsk piles of snow line the streets - and here it is like April. _Winterstürme wichen dem Wonnemond..._


A north west storm is heading the North see coast.
force 9/10


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

Hang on to your hats, kids. Today in Toronto, it's going to be 15 degrees Celsius. In the middle of winter. Now where is my beach stuff?


----------



## Pugg

TwoFlutesOneTrumpet said:


> Hang on to your hats, kids. Today in Toronto, it's going to be 15 degrees Celsius. In the middle of winter. Now where is my beach stuff?


Not fair, it's storming down here.


----------



## hpowders

62 degrees Fah. and cloudy in Florida. Went for a walk at 5:40 AM. Perfect walking weather.

Nobody noticed me. They were all asleep.


----------



## hpowders

TwoFlutesOneTrumpet said:


> Hang on to your hats, kids. Today in Toronto, it's going to be 15 degrees Celsius. In the middle of winter. Now where is my beach stuff?


Not too bad. That's the equivalent of 59 degrees Fah. That's like a balmy summer day in Banff.


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

TwoFlutesOneTrumpet said:


> Hang on to your hats, kids. Today in Toronto, it's going to be 15 degrees Celsius. In the middle of winter. Now where is my beach stuff?


It's even warmer than predicted - 17 C. New record. And I'm stuck at work inside


----------



## Ingélou

Storm Doris is raging over Britain tonight - rainy, gusty, scary.
I'm hoping it will get lost over the North Sea in the next hour or two.


----------



## elgar's ghost

We didn't get the worst of the storm here in the Midlands but the wind was still strong enough to rip my gas meter cover off from the outside wall, and a large tree at the corner of the street was completely uprooted.


----------



## TxllxT

Ingélou said:


> Storm Doris is raging over Britain tonight - rainy, gusty, scary.
> I'm hoping it will get lost over the North Sea in the next hour or two.


Thank you very much


----------



## SiegendesLicht

Ingélou said:


> Storm Doris is raging over Britain tonight - rainy, gusty, scary.
> I'm hoping it will get lost over the North Sea in the next hour or two.


You mean you are hoping the storm will move in our direction, right?


----------



## elgar's ghost

TxllxT said:


> Thank you very much


What does your local weather report say?


----------



## Ingélou

TxllxT said:


> Thank you very much





SiegendesLicht said:


> You mean you are hoping the storm will move in our direction, right?


No, sorry, I meant 'get lost' as in 'disperse' - over the sea, not over the continent. I should have made my meaning clearer _(mutters disgustedly to self, 'And you an English teacher!')_.


----------



## TxllxT

elgars ghost said:


> What does your local weather report say?


Very local report: our rubber doormat flew away....


----------



## TxllxT

Ingélou said:


> No, sorry, I meant 'get lost' as in 'disperse' - over the sea, not over the continent. I should have made my meaning clearer _(mutters disgustedly to self, 'And you an English teacher!')_.


I saw on the weather radar how Doris went from Norfolk straight to our doormat, and I found myself being silenced by a gust of: "With love from Britain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"


----------



## Pat Fairlea

Well, in this bit of Yorkshire, Storm Doris was a bit of a non-event. Just a normal windy winter's day with a few trees uprooted and small dogs blown out to sea.


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> I saw on the weather radar how Doris went from Norfolk straight to our doormat, and I found myself being silenced by a gust of: "With love from Britain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"


Found that on our doorstep also.


----------



## TxllxT

Found back the rubber doormat and noticed how much sand/dirt was piled up in the rectangle under that doormat. So with the broom all was cleaned (/ blowing in the wind) and I felt proud like a Dutchman in those typical windmill touristic wooden shoe + Gouda cheese propaganda: The Dutch are always busy with cleaning their doorstep!


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

45deg C on the thermometer by the pool yesterday and today is going to be worse...............


----------



## Taggart

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> 45deg C on the thermometer by the pool yesterday and today is going to be worse...............


Hopefully your new job is in an air-conditioned office?


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Taggart said:


> Hopefully your new job is in an air-conditioned office?


Rare to find in fact you don't find offices here without A/C, wouldn't make minimum requirements. Job comes with car with A/C so can't complain.


----------



## Pugg

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Rare to find in fact you don't find offices here without A/C, wouldn't make minimum requirements. Job comes with car with A/C so can't complain.


When is the big day Eddie?
On Topic:
It's pouring buckets down here.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Pugg said:


> When is the big day Eddie?
> On Topic:
> It's pouring buckets down here.


the 14 March, 13th is labour day public holiday- we got a lot of them here


----------



## starthrower

70 degrees here today, but we have to keep our parkas and shovels handy. Forecast for the rest of the week is 35, 27, 24 with snow showers.


----------



## Dan Ante

Pugg said:


> It's pouring buckets down here.


from our point of view its 'up there'


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

It hot as Hades here


----------



## Dan Ante

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> It hot as Hades here


You will be at home then Ha Ha


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Dan Ante said:


> You will be at home then Ha Ha


Yeah, I like it hot and Hell aint a bad place to be - as AC/DC say


----------



## Pugg

It's storming outside, I want to go to down under.......


----------



## KenOC

Big winter storm about to hit the northeast coast. On the Internet, everybody's talking about how unusual the weather is. I often read it's due to global warming.

Of course the weather has always been weird, always will be. I remember as a kid hearing the big people talk: "Ain't never seen weather like this. It's them atom bomb tests, I tell ya!"

Probably not too many people remember those strange days.


----------



## ldiat

sunny 84 degrees little wind very nice out here in socal no snow no rain just sun and warm weather. did i mention 84 and sunny?


----------



## ldiat

KenOC said:


> Big winter storm about to hit the northeast coast. On the Internet, everybody's talking about how unusual the weather is. I often read it's due to global warming.
> 
> Of course the weather has always been weird, always will be. I remember as a kid hearing the big people talk: "Ain't never seen weather like this. It's them atom bomb tests, I tell ya!"
> 
> Probably not too many people remember those strange days.


no no no its the spaceships and all the satellites they have launched


----------



## Bettina

Beautiful spring weather here in Davis, CA. I'm in the mood to listen to my favorite spring-themed pieces: Mendelssohn's Spring Song, Schumann's Spring Symphony, and Tchaikovsky's "March: Song of the Lark."


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

It was cloudly and dreary today in the mid 50's. Will be back in 80's by midweek.


----------



## Pugg

Spring is upon us, this week we can get 18 Celsius .


----------



## hpowders

Bettina said:


> Beautiful spring weather here in Davis, CA. I'm in the mood to listen to my favorite spring-themed pieces: Mendelssohn's Spring Song, Schumann's Spring Symphony, and Tchaikovsky's "March: Song of the Lark."


Congrats. on 1000 posts. :tiphat:


----------



## Bettina

hpowders said:


> Congrats. on 1000 posts. :tiphat:


Thank you! I wish that the STI posts counted. In that case, my post count would rival Vivaldi's concerto output! :lol:


----------



## hpowders

Bettina said:


> Thank you! I wish that the STI posts counted. In that case, my post count would rival Vivaldi's concerto output! :lol:


By double! 

The first 1000 is always the toughest. 

Weather: Sunny, warm, 71 degrees F. Wind out of the west at 3 mph.


----------



## KenOC

Sunny here, around 75-80 F all week. Looks like the rain year is over. Everything looks like spring!


----------



## EricABQ

Spectacular here in Albuquerque today. Late winter is usually as good as it gets. Later in spring it will be awful with strong wind and blowing dust.


----------



## hpowders

I hear 20 inches of snow is coming NYC way. Too bad I will miss it because I moved to Florida! :lol:


----------



## Pugg

Another spring day is upon us, lovely.


----------



## Krummhorn

Breaking old records for heat in my region ... yesterday's high was 90° (F). 

I pray that this isn't a 'sign' of what is to come in June when it has gone as high as 117° almost 25 years ago.


----------



## KenOC

“Nor'easter begins to lash the region; at least 5,000 flights canceled, rush-hour commute in crosshairs”

Feeling a bit sorry for my friends in the Northeast. I’ll be thinking of them tomorrow as I sip my Piña Colada over at the pool.


----------



## Dan Ante

Pugg said:


> It's storming outside, I want to go to down under.......


Oh golly gosh, perhaps you may want to rephrase that.


----------



## Pugg

Dan Ante said:


> Oh golly gosh, perhaps you may want to rephrase that.


Another form of humour from down under.


----------



## SiegendesLicht

Weekend greetings from a very rain-soaked but no less beautiful for that Hamburg.


----------



## Pugg

The same here SiegendesLicht, but the garden looks very spring like .


----------



## SiegendesLicht

I don't have a garden of my own, but there is a big park nearby (Planten un Blomen), and it looks like spring too.


----------



## SiegendesLicht

Today we have just boring rain. Yesterday afternoon we had what I like to think of as Wagnerian weather:









One can almost envision the Valkyries flying among storm-driven clouds. My husband who has been here 15 years and somewhat lost his sense of wonder, could not be persuaded to leave the house, so I went for a little solitary walk. The wind howling, the pontoon piers on the Elbe heaving, little sprays of water flying into your face, somebody's hat blown off into the river... what a day! And afterwards I continued to watch it from a little bar on the piers, with a Hefeweizen in hand.

How I love living here...


----------



## TxllxT

SiegendesLicht said:


> Today we have just boring rain. Yesterday afternoon we had what I like to think of as Wagnerian weather:
> 
> View attachment 92988
> 
> 
> One can almost envision the Valkyries flying among storm-driven clouds. My husband who has been here 15 years and somewhat lost his sense of wonder, could not be persuaded to leave the house, so I went for a little solitary walk. The wind howling, the pontoon piers on the Elbe heaving, little sprays of water flying into your face, somebody's hat blown off into the river... what a day! And afterwards I continued to watch it from a little bar on the piers, with a Hefeweizen in hand.
> 
> How I love living here...


Round 1900 Hamburg was known for its huge windjammers:




























Now that were Wagnerian times, blowing in the wind!


----------



## SiegendesLicht

^ One of them is still standing there as museum ship, it's called Rickmer Rickmers.


----------



## Dan Ante

A typical autumn morning, cloudy, not cold yet, the birds preparing to migrate and the Deer are calling over the river, very quite, paradise.


----------



## Pugg

Rain...again , I want the sun!


----------



## Granate

Hello. Interesting topic. My favourite seasons are Summer and Spring, both literally and Vivaldilly. The reason is because I know that it is going to be hot or cold, and because the music is superb.
Now we are in that awkward time of spring that one week of summer sun can lead to a week of windy autumn. Today it was like that. I wanted to wear short sleeves and short trousers, because it was very sunny, but the strong winds from the west cooled down the temperature to 15ºC (59ºF). I had to go out with sunglasses, a sports thin sweatshirt and I was still thirsty.


----------



## EricABQ

We've entered the blowing dust and garbage portion of New Mexico springtime.


----------



## SiegendesLicht

"Nowhere does the sky shine in such a lovely grey as in Hamburg".

Good morning from the city under the most beautiful grey sky in the world


----------



## Totenfeier

It's abruptly turned hot and sunny here the last few days (82 F.) The seasons in this part of North Carolina are:
*too hot
*too cold
*and two weeks in between each that are almost pleasant.


----------



## Pugg

Grey, cloudy, chilly and rain expected, it's like autumn down here.


----------



## Ingélou

It's been lovely & sunny here in seaside Norfolk, though in the evening it turns cold. The trouble is, I have an allergy to tree pollen, which has kicked in early this year because of the warm Spring.
Today is a bit cloudier, though.


----------



## TurnaboutVox

It's the first day of my holiday, so of course it is raining heavily here in Lancashire. Same forecast for west Wales where we're going!


----------



## KenOC

Looks like our drought is over -- for the time being. "A series of late-season storms has vaulted this winter into the history books, making it the wettest winter for California's northern Sierra Nevada in nearly a century of record-keeping. A mind-boggling 751 inches of snow have pummeled the Sugar Bowl ski area near Lake Tahoe this winter, resulting in an astonishing 89.7 inches of precipitation."


----------



## Dan Ante

Cyclone Cook has left New Zealand, glug glug glug...


----------



## Dr Johnson

Rain, rain, rain. 

And chilly too.


----------



## Jacred

The weather here cannot decide if it is going to rain or not. It has started and stopped raining about three times in the last fifteen minutes or so.


----------



## Pugg

Last day of cold weather, spring is finally coming this weekend.


----------



## TxllxT

Today, May 1st, we enjoyed beautiful spring weather 19-20 degrees Celcius in the garden of our Czech friends in Valašské Meziříčí. Our Tom Tom navigation deforms the name of this Moravian town to ... Misery. But the opposite was true. We looked at the flowering trees, cherries, apples, chestnuts: like in the garden of Eden.


----------



## Pugg

Just enough rain to annoy people. :devil:


----------



## Harmonie

It's hot today, but the past couple of days it was actually nice. Yesterday in the mid 60s with a nice breeze, and the day before in the 50s. These nice days are rare this late in the season so it's always nice. Especially when it gets chilly during the night and I can sleep under my covers without sweating!


----------



## KenOC

Evidence of the end of the California drought: May 1 Sierra snowpacks over the past several years, as a percent of normal. The current snowpack is a record, and now they're talking serious flooding as the snow melts. Can't win!


----------



## Taggart

Weather is a thermodynamic system and we all know the rules - you can't win, you can't break even and you can't leave the game.

All you can do is watch the beautiful sunsets.


----------



## KenOC

Taggart said:


> All you can do is watch the beautiful sunsets.


...from the roof of your house, as it floats serenely down the river.


----------



## Pugg

Taggart said:


> W
> 
> All you can do is watch the beautiful sunsets.


We should be so lucky........


----------



## Dr Johnson

Drizzle, drizzle, drizzle.

Wind, wind, wind.



And that's just my digestion.


----------



## Ingélou

Chilled & grey & hazy.

And that's just my mind.


----------



## TxllxT

East Moravia is a mountainous region: today we were in Vizovice, south of a local mountain range, and the weather was humid, 17 degrees, with clouds predicting thunder. Then we went back to the north of the same mountain range and the weather was cool, 14 degrees, Northeastern wind with dripping rain. However, around 17 hours the weather turned mild, the sun show itself and we went with our grandchild to the town park where there are the swings, slides and the pool with ducks. Soon we were joined by lots of other grandchildren in the company of grannies. After the play the whole lot met each other again at the Italian ice cream stand: a wonderful end of this May day.


----------



## hpowders

Dr Johnson said:


> Drizzle, drizzle, drizzle.
> 
> Wind, wind, wind.


I thought it was the witches incantation from Macbeth.


----------



## Dr Johnson

hpowders said:


> Dr Johnson said:
> 
> 
> 
> Drizzle, drizzle, drizzle.
> 
> Wind, wind, wind.
> 
> 
> 
> I thought it was the witchs' incantation from Macbeth.
Click to expand...

The thunder and lightning, to say nothing of the hurlyburly, come later in the evening.


----------



## Dan Ante

Dr Johnson said:


> Drizzle, drizzle, drizzle.
> 
> Wind, wind, wind.
> 
> And that's just my digestion.


No pharting allowed on TC......


----------



## Dan Ante

Getting colder now, as my old grandmother used to say "Winter Draws on"


----------



## Pugg

Ingélou said:


> Chilled & grey & hazy.
> 
> And that's just my mind.


 Do not despair, spring is really coming, so the weather people say.


----------



## Bettina

Ingélou said:


> Chilled & grey & hazy.
> 
> And that's just my mind.


I don't believe that for a moment! Maybe it's true about the weather, but certainly not about your mind. There's absolutely nothing chilly, grey or hazy about your posts. On the contrary, they are always warm, colorful and clearly articulated.


----------



## Jacred

It has been raining heavily for two days, non-stop. We are hoping that the basement does not get flooded.


----------



## Pugg

Another beautiful day ahead 28 Celsius , tomorrow even 30.


----------



## TxllxT

*June Snowman in Finland*

Look! A snowman in june (Finland). St Petersburg today +6 degrees...










http://fontanka.fi/articles/34299/


----------



## SiegendesLicht

I took the first dip in this season last Saturday - on the island Sylt in the North Sea. It rained the first half of the day, but in the evening the sun appeared, and the sea grew very still. I had to jog to the hotel afterwards to warm up though.


----------



## Guest

Fort Worth, Texas had terrible storms while I was there--several days we were under a flash flood watch, and as we left the Van Cliburn Competition yesterday to head to Austin, there was a flash flood warning. It's sunny at the moment in Austin, but more storms are forecast for later today. Things look better in Houston, which is our next destination.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Like a tropical monsoon here today in East Anglia.


----------



## TxllxT

I noticed the Canadian guy on the photo has a Dutch surname...


----------



## Pugg

#Autumn Storms in this part of the land.


----------



## Guest

Absolutely true!


----------



## TxllxT

We just tried to get home on foot, but a cloudburst filled up the pedestrian's & cyclist's tunnel nearby.


----------



## Dan Ante

TxllxT said:


>


Is this what is known as "Sticking your finger in a ****"


----------



## Dan Ante

We have been having foul weather as well, floods in the South Island, roads closed, power outages, stupid people thinking they know how to beat nature etc we are lucky as we missed it only the local volcano to watch out for.


----------



## Totenfeier

Here in the North Carolina Foothills, the stretch of unimaginable soul-killing Southern humidity, temperatures in the mid-90s F and nearly constant threat of severe thunderstorms seems to have broken, and predictions are for a rain-free week with lower humidity and daytime highs in the mid-80s F, with overnight temps dipping down into the crisp upper 50s F. Looks as though God slipped us a couple of cosmic aspirins and hopes we call him in the morning.


----------



## Pugg

Like a monsoon here yesterday, even the woman soccer world tournament was cancelled.


----------



## KenOC

Lately here in SoCal a bit boring. Every day the same. Moderate humidity, temps just a bit higher than I want. I sent the weather bureau a stiff e-mail in protest but it didn't do any good.


----------



## Pugg

Finley a dry day promised, so far so good.


----------



## georgedelorean

Right now Salt Lake is still sitting regularly in the 90s. Hot and dry as usual during the summer.


----------



## KenOC

Latest track forecast for Hurricane Irma. Looks like a big one. If I were Florida, I'd be a bit concerned.


----------



## KenOC

Irma is now a Cat 4 hurricane. Its track looks like it may sideswipe south Florida and head for...New Orleans! Hope those pumps are working this time.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Snow here


----------



## Brahmsian Colors

KenOC said:


> Irma is now a Cat 4 hurricane. Its track looks like it may sideswipe south Florida and head for...New Orleans! Hope those pumps are working this time.


Well, we're here in Florida. We WISH and HOPE it sideswipes us and moves away, but the consensus, as of right now, is that it will go straight up the state and into portions of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, etc. Peak winds now at 180 m.p.h. The effects will be absolutely devastating, and more than likely worse than Texas.


----------



## KenOC

Haydn67 said:


> Well, we're here in Florida. We WISH and HOPE it sideswipes us and moves away, but the consensus, as of right now, is that it will go straight up the state and into portions of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, etc. Peak winds now at 180 m.p.h. The effects will be absolutely devastating, and more than likely worse than Texas.


Headline: "Orange juice prices soar on fears Hurricane Irma will hurt Florida crop."

Irma now has _sustained _winds of 180 mph with higher gusts, making it the strongest hurricane ever recorded prior to entering the Caribbean Basin. It's a beast! The forecast track is unchanged as of right now.

_Added_: Now, a few hours later, 185 mph.


----------



## KenOC

Irma is still showing 185 mph sustained winds. The most recent forecast track puts it closer to Florida, with a chance of running right up that state's west coast. There are a few days left. My wife's friends on Facebook tell her that water and other emergency supplies are already sold out in South Florida stores, and there are lots and lots of empty shelves.


----------



## Pugg

In my country the nights are warmer then daytime.
( well almost)


----------



## Dan Ante

Pugg said:


> In my country the nights are warmer then daytime.
> ( well almost)


For me as well, but I do snuggle down beneath the blankets at night....


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Dan Ante said:


> For me as well, but I do snuggle down beneath the blankets at night....


Go on tell us the true story - your freezing your socks off


----------



## KenOC

I was amused to see on another site somebody blaming Harvey’s inundation of Houston on “global warming.” Evidently they had forgotten the even stronger “great hurricane” of 1900 that destroyed the Texas city of Galveston and killed 8,000 to 12,000 people. There were so many bodies that they were collected on carts for burial at sea.

I remember as a child hearing the adults talk about the inexplicable weather: “We ain’t never had weather like this before.” “That’s true. It’s those atom bomb tests, I tell ya!” Even earlier marvels were discussed, like the great blow of ’47 that knocked down most of the trees on Terwilliger Hill…


----------



## KenOC

Bad news for Florida, maybe. Irma remains at 185 mph but its new track shows it ripping north through Miami and right up the coast through Disney World.


----------



## Kivimees

Pugg said:


> In my country the nights are warmer then daytime.
> ( well almost)


In my country both the days and nights are cold. (That's why we have our saunas)


----------



## KenOC

Fascinating movie of Irma's eye, from space.


----------



## KenOC

Hurricane Irma has weakened slightly but still has sustained winds of 160 mph, a strong Cat 5. Like Haydn67 forecast a few days ago, it now looks to go right up the center of Florida. Best wishes for our members there. Hunker down if you can't get out!


----------



## hpowders

About to be impacted by Hurricane Irma. Posting without electrical power impossible, since wifi will be out.

Thinking of creating a weekly magazine to send out the hpowders' posts you crave, no matter "watt".


----------



## Bettina

hpowders said:


> About to be impacted by Hurricane Irma. Posting without electrical power impossible.
> 
> Thinking of creating a weekly magazine to send out the hpowders' posts you crave, no matter "watt".


I hope that your power doesn't go out!!  I'm seriously addicted to checking TC for your latest posts. I'll be so sad if you can't post for a while...it would be like if Beethoven ran out of sketchbooks or something!


----------



## hpowders

Bettina said:


> I hope that your power doesn't go out!!  I'm seriously addicted to checking TC for your latest posts. I'll be so sad if you can't post for a while...it would be like if Beethoven ran out of sketchbooks or something!


Thanks. I appreciate your kind wishes. Oh, the power will go out! I've experienced a few of these and the power always goes out. The question is for how long? The worst thing is the storm is predicted to be an overnight thing-Sunday night into Monday morning-very fast moving, not a rainmaker like Harvey, but the winds-imagine trying to sleep with the wind howling at 80 mph behind your head. I will have to calm down anyone with me in bed....if anyone shows up.

The two bad things about Florida:the potential hurricanes and also, nobody likes classical music....pickup trucks, yes, classical music, no.

Yeah. How did Beethoven get so many sketch books? For a rather primitive early 19th century, they seemed to do okay.


----------



## KenOC

The daily Irma fix. Irma has re-intensified to Cat 5 with sustained 160 mph winds. The latest forecast track has shifted further west, so the eye may miss Miami but is expected to move up the west coast of Florida and cause grief in Tampa and other cities there. Arrival in Florida, Sunday morning.


----------



## Granate

I'm quite worried. I have a friend in Georgia but he told me that he and his family will be ok, but some friends and relatives are not so lucky.


----------



## Ingélou

Granate said:


> I'm quite worried. I have a friend in Georgia but he told me that he and his family will be ok, but some friends and relatives are not so lucky.


The power of the weather - so scary. Hoping for the best that can be. 
Thanks for the updates, KenOC.


----------



## SiegendesLicht

hpowders said:


> Thanks. I appreciate your kind wishes. Oh, the power will go out! I've experienced a few of these and the power always goes out. The question is for how long? The worst thing is the storm is predicted to be an overnight thing-Sunday night into Monday morning-very fast moving, not a rainmaker like Harvey, *but the winds-imagine trying to sleep with the wind howling at 80 mph behind your head.* I will have to calm down anyone with me in bed....if anyone shows up.


That must be like trying to sleep with police helicopters roaring overhead all night long because Trump is in town - back in July.


----------



## KenOC

Onion headline: "Palm Tree In Hurricane Irma's Path Ready To Bend Real Good For Cameras."


----------



## Pyotr

Not sure if that latest model changed helped or hurt me. When a hurricane travels over land, at least we know it's weakening. The previous model had it going right over my head, but now the storm will be over water for the next few days which might fuel its power. The main danger where I'm at is not surge because I'm not near the ocean or gulf, but wind. Here's a little info on tornadoes which are frequently spawned by hurricanes.

_"All tornadoes need thunderstorms to form and hurricanes carry with them individual supercells, which are rotating, well-organized thunderstorms. Second, hurricanes bring with them warm, moist air, which acts as their fuel. This creates instability in the atmosphere - namely, a layer of warm air with slightly colder and less-moist air above. Finally, hurricanes create wind shear, or an abrupt change in wind speed and direction over a short change in height. These alternating winds can create swirling air, called rolls. These vortices may then be flipped vertically - creating tornadoes - by thunderstorm updrafts, which are basically currents of warm, rising air. "_


----------



## KenOC

Hurricane Irma's latest track hasn't changed much. Strength back up to 130 mph, category 4, and maybe a bit more before landfall. The speed is slow, meaning foul weather will last longer. Gonna be nasty for Florida's west coast!


----------



## Pyotr

*Sunday 12 Noon Report*

Here it is raining and winds at 14mph with 32mph gusts. According to this wind ap (Windy) our worst time will be 9am Monday which will have 50mph/100mph gusts.

The Tampa area where most of the people live will experience (according to this ap) its worst at 6am Monday with 63mph/122mph. Tampa is about 90 miles south west of me.

Of course their main problem will be the surge after the eye has just passed Tampa bay, especially with the thing slowing down.

We secured our garage door and picture outside our back yard.


----------



## KenOC

Pyotr, Irma is moving faster now, and the eye should be near Naples in about three hours (5:00 PM Eastern).


----------



## Dan Ante

I see there is another Hurricane forming in the same area "Jose" I hope you are not in for a triple hit.


----------



## Pyotr

Looks like it hit land a little earlier than expected and may actually pass Tampa on the east, which is good news. They're still get surge when the eye moves north of Tampa, but not to the extent predicted, which is a huge break. The eye wall is breaking up and it should pass closer to me now, but won't be as powerful. 
Over 2 million without power in FL but I'm still up. When it goes off, it will take days to restore because they won't send people out in the storm.


----------



## KenOC

The number of people without power in Florida may be much higher. A newscast said the power companies report the number of "customers" out. One customer = one meter = one house or family. So 2 million "customers" may mean 6 million (or more) people.

Added: Guess that’s right. There are 20.6 million people in Florida. The news says almost half are without power, 3.3 million out of about 7 million “residential customers.” Again, one “customer” = one electric meter. So the outage numbers, if not carefully read, understate the gravity of the situation.


----------



## hpowders

Irma missed me. Jacksonville and Florida keys, not so lucky. I get to post another day, so do not delete me en masse from your "poster ignore" lists yet.


----------



## Dr Johnson

hpowders said:


> Irma missed me. Jacksonville and Florida keys, not so lucky. I get to post another day, so do not delete me en masse from your "poster ignore" lists yet.


Have you power?

More importantly, have you enough alcohol and tins of baked beans?


----------



## hpowders

Dr Johnson said:


> Have you power?
> 
> More importantly, have you enough alcohol and tins of baked beans?


I spent the time watching all the big cable news TV stations, with the same basic message, "complete devastation" for my area.

They should have qualified that with "we realize that many times hurricanes do not follow sophisticated, fancy schmancy computer models, and most of the time, go their own unpredictible way"....but they didn't.


----------



## Brahmsian Colors

Under the circumstances, my wife and I came out pretty well here off the east, central coast of FL. No significant damage...AND, we got our power back within 14 hours after we had lost it. Life is good again!


----------



## hpowders

Dr Johnson said:


> Have you power?
> 
> More importantly, have you enough alcohol and tins of baked beans?


What I like about you is that you don't believe in beating around the Bush.

(Goes in one of Dr. Johnson's ears and out the other, if Bush's Baked Beans are not exported to Jolly Olde England!)


----------



## KenOC

Shall we do this again? Maria is yet another Cat 5 storm, now entering the Caribbean with 160 MPH sustained winds. Just made first landfall on the island of Dominica. The Prime Minister had to be rescued from his flooded home after the roof blew off.

Maria should score a direct hit on Puerto Rico. Longer term, the track suggests landfall in Virginia. Or it may curl north and miss North America entirely. Time will tell.


----------



## KenOC

Hurricane Maria now has sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 200. It has already done severe damage on Dominica and Guadalupe. It's forecast to hit the US Virgin Islands in three or four hours, and Puerto Rico tomorrow morning. This will be Puerto Rico's first direct hit by a Cat 5 storm in almost 100 years.

The forecast track still shows it bearing increasingly north after that; it remains to be seen whether it will hit the US mainland, but North Carolina and Virginia are concerned, to say the least.


----------



## KenOC

Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico quite hard, the worst in 85 years. It is now somewhat reduced and moving ever more northward. It is likely to bring very bad weather to the Turks and Caicos Islands, but otherwise is likely to miss the US mainland by a good margin.


----------



## TxllxT

http://metro.co.uk/2017/09/27/hurriance-maria-remnants-to-arrive-in-the-uk-this-weekend-6958756/

Hail Mary & General Lee are coming!


----------



## distantprommer

The National Hurricane Center shows Playa del Carmen (and Cancun) to be on the path of the next Tropical Storm / Hurricane aka Nate. It should hit us late Fridays, early Saturday.


----------



## Pugg

The storm is howling around our house, the rain comes down in buckets, it's dark and chilly, it's official autumn.


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

Ice on the windscreen...


----------



## Ingélou

Pugg said:


> The storm is howling around our house, the rain comes down in buckets, it's dark and chilly, it's official autumn.


Not very nice weather - but the post is sort of poetic!

Here on the coast of Norfolk it's alternately rain and chilly sunshine.


----------



## KenOC

Here in SoCal, it's swimming weather...upper 80's (Fahrenheit) tomorrow. Clear with light breezes. And no alligators.

Well, maybe a great white or two...pesky things.


----------



## Ingélou

KenOC said:


> Here in SoCal, it's swimming weather...upper 80's (Fahrenheit) tomorrow. Clear with light breezes. And no alligators.
> 
> Well, maybe a great white or two...pesky things.


Gloat all you want!


----------



## TxllxT

The weather on Malta (Pembroke) was quite thundery & showery the last two days, but now we're getting steady with sunshine & 25 degrees.


----------



## Dan Ante

Pugg said:


> The storm is howling around our house, the rain comes down in buckets, it's dark and chilly, it's official autumn.


The same here but we are in spring.


----------



## Pugg

Dan Ante said:


> The same here but we are in spring.


So strange for us northern hemisphere people, Christmas in the sun like you lot having.


----------



## distantprommer

At first it seemed that TS Nate would come ashore here in Playa. We have prepared as best we can for this. The latest info now shows Nate passing by, barely not coming ashore.

It could still become a hurricane though. Even so, it will pass by very quickly tonight. I worry more about the long tails these storms tend to have. Lots and lots of rain.


----------



## KenOC

Looks like Nate, now a hurricane and still intensifying, has missed Distantprommer and his home at Playa. It is aimed at the northern gulf coast of the US and should come ashore in 12 fours or so as a Cat 1 or maybe a Cat 2 hurricane, aimed at Mobile Alabama. As it moves inland, weakening to a tropical storm, its current path has it hitting Birmingham, Chattanooga, and then points further north and east.


----------



## SiegendesLicht

Pugg said:


> The storm is howling around our house, the rain comes down in buckets, it's dark and chilly, it's official autumn.


It has howled over Hamburg at the same time too. The public transportation was a catastrophal mess, and I still have not got my internet functioning (which is the reason I am taking a forced break from TC).

And when the storm was over, there came this:


----------



## TxllxT

Malta calling: Divine weather over here, 25-26 degrees, sunshine + cooling western breeze. Forecast: more of the same goodies for the next three days.


----------



## Pugg

TxllxT said:


> Malta calling: Divine weather over here, 25-26 degrees, sunshine + cooling western breeze. Forecast: more of the same goodies for the next three days.


Texel was battered by storm last week, is your home still standing?


----------



## KenOC

Nate has just now come ashore at Biloxi, Mississippi, with sustained winds of 85 MPH. A cat 1 hurricane and fast moving. Should soon be past and weakening quickly. Will spread lots of rain and foul weather up through the east central US.


----------



## TxllxT

Pugg said:


> Texel was battered by storm last week, is your home still standing?


All OK over there. We love to have holidays in the Mediterranean in the first half of October, because this 'prolongs' our summer feeling. From what I've read from Holland, this is surely the case now...:tiphat:


----------



## distantprommer

I am sure that the wind can be fierce on Texel. I used to live in Zandvoort, along the boulevard right next to the beach. Sometimes the wind storms were almost hurricane strength, and we would lose roof tiles (dakpannen) which became flying objects. Luckily no one was ever hurt.


----------



## KenOC

Indirectly weather-related news: Here in SoCal we have Santa Ana winds this time of year. Hot winds from the desert whistling through, close to zero percent humidity and drying out everything (which is already dry enough). Fire season!

We had breakfast out this morning and saw major smoke not so far away. Chased it down and found a major fire somewhat to the north of us, now dubbed the Canyon Fire 2. 5,000 acres burned, a thousand homes evacuated, a thousand firefighters on the line, five percent contained, and some homes burned down. Serious because of all the people down here, but not unusual at all in the natural scheme of things.

Should be better tomorrow with lower temps and higher humidity. But people have it much worse up north in the Napa Valley area, our prime wine country, where over 1,500 homes and structures were destroyed today by a whole set of wildfires.

Our fire: http://abc7.com/canyon-fire-2-scorches-4500-acres-burns-homes/2512065/


----------



## KenOC

Meanwhile, from the other direction, jumbo waves are causing excitement along the coast and keeping lifeguards busy at the beaches. Coastal streets are getting flooded and some beach homes are having windows broken by waves. Here's The Wedge at Newport Beach. Never a dull moment.


----------



## KenOC

Disneyland today, about 20 miles north of where I live, with smoke from our fire.


----------



## senza sordino

KenOC said:


> Meanwhile, from the other direction, jumbo waves are causing excitement along the coast and keeping lifeguards busy at the beaches. Coastal streets are getting flooded and some beach homes are having windows broken by waves. Here's The Wedge at Newport Beach. Never a dull moment.


A remarkable photo. Very clever use of a long lens. In the wave I see a surfer on the right side, but what is that thing submerged in the water on the left, seen in the gap between people on the left. Probably a downed surfer, but maybe one of those pesky sharks you mentioned earlier.


----------



## KenOC

senza sordino said:


> A remarkable photo. Very clever use of a long lens. In the wave I see a surfer on the right side, but what is that thing submerged in the water on the left, seen in the gap between people on the left. Probably a downed surfer, but maybe one of those pesky sharks you mentioned earlier.


Here's one of those pesky guys. Just when you thought it was safe...


----------



## senza sordino

I walk to work; I took this photo on my way to work, looking back. Or I cycle if the weather cooperates. Yesterday morning it did not. We had a light dusting of snow. Snow this early is rather unusual. I live nearby and as you can see, there are still some leaves on the trees.


----------



## Dan Ante

senza sordino said:


> I walk to work; I took this photo on my way to work, looking back. Or I cycle if the weather cooperates. Yesterday morning it did not. We had a light dusting of snow. Snow this early is rather unusual. I live nearby and as you can see, there are still some leaves on the trees.


It is a pretty scene, why is the snow melted on the pavement/sidewalk as if vehicles had been using it


----------



## senza sordino

Dan Ante said:


> It is a pretty scene, why is the snow melted on the pavement/sidewalk as if vehicles had been using it


On the left side of the photo, closest to the building, there is a sidewalk for pedestrians, and on the right side of the photo, further from the building, is a wider bicycle path. They are separated by a narrow grassy patch. Both are still covered with maple leaves.


----------



## Rambler

It's been very nice today in Lancashire, blue skies and sunshine - if a little cool. Spent the day doing a six mile hike mainly along the banks of the River Hodder and River Ribble, starting near Stonyhurst college. Lots of others hiking this route in the November sunshine. Trees have lost about half their leaves. Rather muddy when crossing pastures, but unlike several others doing the route I was equipped with good boots and waterproof gaiters.


----------



## Pugg

It was the first night minus zero


----------



## KenOC

Weather? Here's a picture a friend took tonight at La Jolla, just south of us.


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> Weather? Here's a picture a friend took tonight at La Jolla, just south of us.


Complete with two UFO's just under the mother ship, so it's those two little so & so's that are responsible for all of your troubles.


----------



## Pugg

MInus 2 on the thermometer outside, changes the duvets yesterday to winter.


----------



## Totenfeier

Mid to upper 50s F today, with heavy rain chances. Mid to upper 40s F tomorrow, with moderate rain chances. I hate cold rain.


----------



## Granate

18ºC (64ºF) at 17:30 where I live. Clear skies all day and a minimum of 14ºC. Winds at 7mph.
It's a bit colder inside than outside. Now only wearing a long shirt and a sweatshirt.

We still need sunglasses.

A lovely sunset next to the sea listening to Solti's Immolation Scene with Nilsson.


----------



## LezLee

.... and right up the coast through Disney World.


Can that be a bad thing?


----------



## Dan Ante

Granate said:


> 18ºC (64ºF) at 17:30 where I live. Clear skies all day and a minimum of 14ºC. Winds at 7mph.
> It's a bit colder inside than outside. Now only wearing a long shirt and a sweatshirt.


You would be in big trouble down here dressed like that.


----------



## Luchesi

Friends of mine mentioned they heard that the NE US was getting a polar vortex in about 10 days now, but I don't see anything in the 16 day progs. The SE US will finally get colder by the end of the month, so maybe that's what they heard on radio or TV.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Of course the weather has always been weird, always will be.


Not helpful for trying to get the climate change warning out to the young people, Ken. The more heat/energy the planet retains, the more weird the weather will be.


----------



## Granate

Luchesi said:


> Not helpful for trying to get the climate change warning out to the young people, Ken. The more heat/energy the planet retains, the more weird the weather will be.


In the night weather forecast in Spain they even fear that a Mediterranean Hurricane could begin in the south of Italy. Enough is enough. 

*A 'medicane' forming in the central Mediterranean will take aim at Greece with wild winds, rain*

I didn't even mention that my whole country is suffering a serious drought. All the rains and storms happen in the Azores, Benelux or Italy. Our area has an anticyclone settled in.


----------



## Luchesi

Granate said:


> In the night weather forecast in Spain they even fear that a Mediterranean Hurricane could begin in the south of Italy. Enough is enough.
> 
> *A 'medicane' forming in the central Mediterranean will take aim at Greece with wild winds, rain*
> 
> I didn't even mention that my whole country is suffering a serious drought. All the rains and storms happen in the Azores, Benelux or Italy. Our area has an anticyclone settled in.


As you might have heard, your drought will break by Wed the 22nd, and then you'll have a week of precipitation. Good news, if nothing accumulates to change that flow pattern and its track over Spain.

The medicane now looks to become a stalled circulation over Italy, slowly weakening and then drifting east.

Interesting stuff..


----------



## KenOC

Forecast is 93F for Wednesday and close to that for Thursday, Thanksgiving. Unseasonably warm!


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Forecast is 93F for Wednesday and close to that for Thursday, Thanksgiving. Unseasonably warm!


Cold patterns will give you colder weather than you would expect. Warm patterns will give you warmer weather than you would expect. Both are the result of the Earth's more energetic planetary waves. You will be under a strong closed low for a few days and that's a very warm pattern. These form early in the season before the cold air in the north falls to the south and prevents them from setting up.

The planet is very big, but it's retaining about 4 atomic bombs per second.

"Over the past decade, the rate is 8 x 10^21 Joules per year, or 2.5 x 10^14 Joules per second. The yield of the Hiroshima atomic bomb was 6.3 x 10^13 Joules, hence the rate of global heat accumulation is equivalent to about 4 Hiroshima bomb detonations per second. That's nearly 2 billion atomic bomb detonations worth of heat accumulating in the Earth's climate system since 1998.
The data used in Nuccitelli et al. (2012) are now available for download so you can check it out for yourself."

What me worry? It won't get really bad for about 100 years (by then we might be able to reverse the trend).


----------



## SiegendesLicht

Fog, fog and more fog - stereotypical British weather here today. The City of Birmingham Symphony Orchestra is performing in Hamburg tonight - I guess this weather is an attempt to make them feel at home


----------



## gustavdimitri

Finally winter is approaching here! The (wet) first snow is expected this weekend! 

Here being the south of The Netherlands.

I hope not like this though ...


----------



## Pugg

Thunder / lightning and raining like mad, going to the attic, sort the Christmas decorations out.


----------



## Harmonie

It's been in the 70s the last couple of days. They say this is "above average", but it's happening so often nowadays that I really feel like it's becoming the new average.

I could post how much I wish to have a winter this year, but my hope for that is pretty much gone. We just don't get them anymore.


----------



## Pugg

Minus 3 Celsius around here.:devil:


----------



## Granate

18ºC at 9:25. Heavy rain and thunderstorm!


----------



## TxllxT

Granate said:


> 18ºC at 9:25. Heavy rain and thunderstorm!


The rain in Spain falls mainly...


----------



## KenOC

Temps are in the low 70s down to the high 60s, Fahrenheit. People are tearing the sidings off their houses and burning them for warmth here! Beach crowds are shrinking, winter is coming!


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> Temps are in the low 70s down to the high 60s, Fahrenheit. People are tearing the sidings off their houses and burning them for warmth here! Beach crowds are shrinking, winter is coming!


You have to be kidding Ken 60F is not cold you
Makes Americans sound like wimps
Shame on you.
.


----------



## Taggart

KenOC said:


> Temps are in the low 70s down to the high 60s, Fahrenheit. People are tearing the sidings off their houses and burning them for warmth here! Beach crowds are shrinking, winter is coming!


 That's prime beach weather here in England.

We currently have snow and temperatures in the low 30's Fahrenheit - sort of autumnal and a little chilly but not quite winter yet.


----------



## Luchesi

Taggart said:


> That's prime beach weather here in England.
> 
> We currently have snow and temperatures in the low 30's Fahrenheit - sort of autumnal and a little chilly but not quite winter yet.


How many polar vortices are they saying you will get this winter?


----------



## KenOC

Fire weather. Not hot but very dry with desert winds whipping through. Last time it was up north around wine country, now it's our turn.

Currently at six major fires. Some freeways are shut down, schools closed. 177,000 evacuated, 180,000 without power, 55,000 acres burned, and the homes destroyed are still being counted. Here's what I-405 near the Getty Center looked like this morning.


----------



## Pyotr

*More proof that the apocalypse is upon us*

[video=facebook_share;2553599144682180]https://www.facebook.com/NTDTelevision/videos/2553599144682180/[/video]

Astonishing electrical storm seen in timelapse video lighting up the sky above Western Australia.


----------



## KenOC

Another stunning lightning storm video, this one not sped up but slowed down in parts, 1,000 frames per second. Great sound with it. You can watch it full screen at 



 .


----------



## Dave Whitmore

It's snowing in New Jersey today. Not the heaviest snowfall ever but I'll take it. Makes me feel very festive.


----------



## Pugg

Predicted 10 cm snow,


----------



## Dr Johnson




----------



## Guest

"I am just going outside and may be some time." 

"Is it really worth it, for a packet of McVitie's?"


----------



## Pugg

I have already 3 times shoved the snow from the path to the front door.


----------



## LezLee

Thick frost here this morning and a thin coating of snow on the Ochil hills which I can see from my bedroom window. Very pretty in the sunshine.


----------



## Jos

A fair amount of snow this morning. The woods always look wonderful with snow. Just got back from a two hours walk, always amused how snow affects dogs; they get crazy and wild.
Time for some Haydn piano trio’s and a nice dark beer. Enjoy your lazy sunday afternoon !


----------



## elgar's ghost

Lots of snow here and it's still falling. It's like living inside Keith Richard's nostrils.


----------



## Dr Johnson

elgars ghost said:


> Lots of snow here and it's still falling. *It's like living inside Keith Richard's nostrils.*


I wish you hadn't introduced that image.


----------



## LezLee

elgars ghost said:


> Lots of snow here and it's still falling. It's like living inside Keith Richard's nostrils.


Do you have insider knowledge?


----------



## KenOC

I will be an especially nice person and not describe the weather here.


----------



## Dan Ante

Too hot here my fridge is working overtime keeping the essential beverage cold :cheers:


----------



## Luchesi

Ken, how close did fire get to you?


----------



## Luchesi

Pugg said:


> I have already 3 times shoved the snow from the path to the front door.


You shove it (with distain).


----------



## Pugg

10 centimetres yesterday , almost gone , it rained a bit, another 10 to 15 centimetres predicted after 14.00 hours .


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> Ken, how close did fire get to you?


Not at all close. Never saw or smelled smoke. Fires north, east, and south, but nothing near here. Fingers crossed!


----------



## Luchesi

Pugg said:


> 10 centimetres yesterday , almost gone , it rained a bit, another 10 to 15 centimetres predicted after 14.00 hours .


Have the forecasts for snow amounts been accurate this year?


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Not at all close. Never saw or smelled smoke. Fires north, east, and south, but nothing near here. Fingers crossed!


Do you think people will rebuild in those same areas?


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> Do you think people will rebuild in those same areas?


Sure, they always do. These fires are nothing special for this area. The recent fires up north, however, were very unusual and caused a lot more damage.


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> Sure, they always do. These fires are nothing special for this area. The recent fires up north, however, were very unusual and caused a lot more damage.


Does insurance cover for this type of fire?


----------



## KenOC

I suppose if you have fire insurance, you're covered. A few years ago I saw an article about one insurance company renting satellite time to look at homes in the brush-covered hills around LA. If the brush around the homes hadn't been adequately cleared, they were canceling the coverage for those structures. Smart, I'd say.

Some of the stories about the current fires, though, say that embers from blazes even at some distance are sending up clouds of embers that ignite even well-cleared homes.

The loss of homes in the current fires has actually not been great -- a few hundred perhaps. The recent Northern California fires destroyed 9,000 structures, of which maybe half were homes.


----------



## Pugg

Luchesi said:


> Have the forecasts for snow amounts been accurate this year?


At this place yes, my signifiant better other half and my mother had to stay at my nan last night, who lives near Schiphol airport where they both working.


----------



## Luchesi

Pugg said:


> At this place yes, my signifiant better other half and my mother had to stay at my nan last night, who lives near Schiphol airport where they both working.


You're lucky you live in a region where it's easier to forecast snow amounts. It was easier for me when I was forecasting in Germany, but not here in the States.


----------



## Pugg

Luchesi said:


> You're lucky you live in a region where it's easier to forecast snow amounts. It was easier for me when I was forecasting in Germany, but not here in the States.


Even in this small country they ( the Met office) often has it wrong.....or it's clear in the south whilst the north is covered in 20 cm.


----------



## Pugg

The six feet high snowman did nor survive, all snpe is gone, our garden looks like a pond


----------



## arnerich

KenOC said:


> Sure, they always do. These fires are nothing special for this area. The recent fires up north, however, were very unusual and caused a lot more damage.


That's where I live... it was devastating. I know so many who lost everything. Truly heartbreaking.


----------



## Luchesi

Pugg said:


> Even in this small country they ( the Met office) often has it wrong.....or it's clear in the south whilst the north is covered in 20 cm.


Yes, snow bands aren't predictable more than a few hours in advance.


----------



## LezLee

Thick frost and very cold today, snow on the Ochils. Glad I don’t have to go out.


----------



## Potiphera

LezLee said:


> Thick frost and very cold today, snow on the Ochils. Glad I don't have to go out.


Falkirk? I briefly lived in Falkirk!


----------



## Potiphera

Today is very mild and nice not to have the heating on maybe till the evening.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Brisbane hit by golf ball-sized hail storms
http://www.news.com.au/technology/e...s/news-story/31c666e6891bc0f9eb81a2fd614bec66


----------



## Dan Ante

That is horrific Eddie, just what you need for xmas, we must have caught the tail end just flooding in and around Wellington.
Happy xmas stay sober :cheers:


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Dan Ante said:


> That is horrific Eddie, just what you need for xmas, we must have caught the tail end just flooding in and around Wellington.
> Happy xmas stay sober :cheers:


Until new year anyway lol


----------



## Dr Johnson

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Brisbane hit by golf ball-sized hail storms
> http://www.news.com.au/technology/e...s/news-story/31c666e6891bc0f9eb81a2fd614bec66


Strewth!

And here am I worrying about the few flakes of snow falling here.


----------



## Guest

Dr Johnson said:


> Strewth!
> 
> And here am I worrying about the few flakes of snow falling here.


Remember the same thing in the UK a few years ago? My boss' car bodywork was damaged by the hailstones. Still, it was only a Ford.


----------



## Ingélou

Rain, rain, go away!
We set off for church today to a town about 14 miles away, where we love the liturgy, but had to turn back because there was a deep flood across the road, muddy water from the fields.

We could have worked round it on other roads, but I made Taggart bottle out and we're going to a later Mass in Great Yarmouth. We're home for about twenty minutes - just time for me to feed my addiction and post on TC. 

Hope those of you who are going to New Year Firework Displays have better weather. 
Happy New Year. :tiphat:


----------



## starthrower

A brutal December here in central New York. Two weeks of arctic temperatures and snow. Today's high was 8 degrees F. The Mrs. and I are thinking of getting out of here and moving to the Pacific northwest. Eugene, Oregon to be exact.


----------



## Totenfeier

Cold down South in the Old North State as well; been bouncing around between 15 and 25 F for several days, with a brisk breeze, and heading closer to 10 F soon - but bone dry and sunny.


----------



## Pugg

> Rain, rain, go away!


This, it's getting very boring all that rain, dark, I want spring, like now.


----------



## EdwardBast

starthrower said:


> A brutal December here in central New York. Two weeks of arctic temperatures and snow. Today's high was 8 degrees F. The Mrs. and I are thinking of getting out of here and moving to the Pacific northwest. Eugene, Oregon to be exact.


In northern New York it has been frigid. Down to -15°F (-28°C) at night for most of a week. That won't deter our upcoming full moon hike though.


----------



## Dan Ante

Pugg said:


> This, it's getting very boring all that rain, dark, I want spring, like now.


Not quite a spring but.....


----------



## KenOC

Miserable weather here. Barely into the 70s during the day. Most people are avoiding the Beach.*

*Especially because of a plague of stingrays, who are stinging people right and left. Ouch!


----------



## Pugg

The storm is battering the house, but we are safe, lots of rain, the garden looks like a swimming pool.


----------



## Ingélou

'Storm Eleanor' is due in the UK today - it's a bit gusty outside, but nothing much - yet...


----------



## Pugg

Over here it's dangerous, trains not running, plains can hardly land or take off.....


----------



## Totenfeier

Blessings on all.

The US east coast is about to get it (winter storm Grayson, I hear tell - it's more like a "winter hurricane," I never heard the term "bomb cyclone" until last night), but it looks as though it won't make it as far inland as me. The low temp/wind chill mix sounds like it could be memorable for an ol' Southern boy like me, though.


----------



## KenOC

Here in SoCal, we're enjoying dry and warm weather. Of course we could end up crawling across a parched desert with vultures circling patiently overhead...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/s...one-dry-so-far-making-some-history/ar-BBHPWcS

Although we get much of our water from points north, I see today that the snowpack is just 20-30% of normal in the central and north Sierras. Good thing the supermarkets have beer, eh?


----------



## Joe B

Just finished cleaning up after storm Grayson. We got 14 inches of snow where I live....exactly as predicted. The wind is blowing at 25 mph and it's currently 21 deg F. Temperature is going to drop over night to around 5 deg. There calling for -10 to -30 deg with the wind chill tomorrow morning. High tomorrow at 8 deg. Sat night into Sunday morning it will be -10 deg without the wind. I thought I lived in CT, not northern Canada!
Anyway, after 2.5 hours out in the weather I'm about to enjoy a hot cup of herbal tea by the wood stove. Good night all!


----------



## Totenfeier

Nestled against the eastern side of the Blue Ridge mountains in North Carolina:
-no snow
-no ice
-no nothing
-19 F; feels like 12 F; wind speed 6.8 mph
-STILL bone dry and sunny


----------



## Pugg

Whole day sunshine, alas a north easterly wind, very chilli outside.


----------



## Joe B

When I checked weather.com this morning at about 8:15, it was -8 deg with wind chill at -22 deg.


----------



## Kivimees

We haven't had a winter in five years.


----------



## KenOC

As we shiver, let's spare a thought for our friends down under: "The Australian city of Sydney has experienced its hottest weather in 79 years with temperatures in the region hitting as high as 47.3C (117F)."


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

KenOC said:


> As we shiver, let's spare a thought for our friends down under: "The Australian city of Sydney has experienced its hottest weather in 79 years with temperatures in the region hitting as high as 47.3C (117F)."


and rhe English cricket team melted


----------



## Totenfeier

KenOC said:


> As we shiver, let's spare a thought for our friends down under: "The Australian city of Sydney has experienced its hottest weather in 79 years with temperatures in the region hitting as high as 47.3C (117F)."


Observation: Yesterday was 117F in Sydney; this morning, it was 17F where I am.

Just sayin'.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Totenfeier said:


> Observation: Yesterday was 117F in Sydney; this morning, it was 17F where I am.
> 
> Just sayin'.


I'll swap ya some heat for some cold


----------



## Totenfeier

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> I'll swap ya some heat for some cold


Thanks for the offer, but frankly I'd rather sweater than swelter.

By the by, its seems as though I may finally, actually, maybe see some weather activity tomorrow: light snow and sleet during the day, giving way to freezing rain through the evening.


----------



## Dan Ante

Which is the lesser of the two evils heat or cold being sensible, I reckon its easier to keep warm than keep cool, I have been painting the house started at 9am but at 1pm after an hour working in the sun 30 deg C I have had to call it of for a couple of hours.


----------



## KenOC

First rain of the season (!) is due here tomorrow. Maybe over an inch! The ark is almost ready.


----------



## Pugg

Kivimees said:


> We haven't had a winter in five years.


Not healthy, one's body need cold and hot, as in weather I mean.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Rain, rain, rain


----------



## Listenerris

Nice weather and less snow than usual. But it is giving 
of some not pleased thoughts -maybe climate change came so early? I have been a little drive in my car- but others drive the biggest mile level at a New Year So, possibly in that way I can save a bit in the air))))


----------



## KenOC

Well, we got our first significant rain of the season. Even the BBC is now reporting on the mudslides near here in Montecito -- 17 dead and many more missing, homes completely destroyed, and so forth, in a _very _posh area. I had been laughing for years about the weather people always warning about mudflows from "burn areas" every time there was a little rain, but this time it came true in spades.

The hills above Montecito were only days ago denuded by the "Thomas fire," also reported internationally, which was the largest wildfire in physical extent in recorded Southern California history (by a small margin).


----------



## Dr Johnson

Dank, dark, drizzly.


----------



## Totenfeier

Dank, dark, drizzly, and still a bit chilly (but a projected high of 57F - 13.8C today).


----------



## Pugg

The sun shines brightly and...it's snowing, the same time.....


----------



## Harmonie

Cold. About as cold as it can ever get here with highs in the teens (F). But of course, there's no snow or anything. I think snow has hit all of the surrounding states - including Texas and the deep South but not us. I think even _Florida_ has seen more than us.


----------



## TxllxT

Today one of Holland's big storms that wrote itself into the list of the top ten of the mightiest ever to hit our country. On the video you can see how people are being blown away. I guess, this has to do with lots of high-rise buildings that have been build the last few years. Now the storm winds gust down and gather in thrust-power like never before...


----------



## Pugg

My kitchen door window didn't hold it, had to call the helpline for new glass.


----------



## KenOC

And here, didn't even hit 70F. Rain, but less than a tenth of an inch. There's no snowpack. Asking for beer donations.


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> And here, didn't even hit 70F. Rain, but less than a tenth of an inch. There's no snowpack. Asking for beer donations.


One pack of Steen lager on the way.


----------



## Art Rock

Pugg said:


> My kitchen door window didn't hold it, had to call the helpline for new glass.


We lost about 10 roof tiles - earliest they can come to fix it is Monday.


----------



## Pugg

Art Rock said:


> We lost about 10 roof tiles - earliest they can come to fix it is Monday.


Our kitchen door is still closed with wood. :devil:


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> There's no snowpack.


What do you get from sitting on the ice too long?

Polaroids?

It's interesting to see Western Europe and the Eastern US maybe breaking some of the same weather records. They're both now under the shifted longwave storm tracks. And so, Texas and California have lost the major storm track, dry and warm but few records yet. These shifts require a lot of energy.

Hopefully, a less active Sun will help a little bit.

Western Canada should benefit from the warming energy?


----------



## Sloe

It became cold again.


----------



## KenOC

Day after sunny day of temps in the mid- to high-70s, blue skies with scattered clouds. No rain. Zero. Zilch. Sierra snowpack at 20-30% of normal. But beautiful weather!


----------



## ldiat

KenOC said:


> Day after sunny day of temps in the mid- to high-70s, blue skies with scattered clouds. No rain. Zero. Zilch. Sierra snowpack at 20-30% of normal. But beautiful weather!


yes it is here in Socal. walked today and the sun was so warm on the face aaahhhhhhh!


----------



## Pugg

ldiat said:


> yes it is here in Socal. walked today and the sun was so warm on the face aaahhhhhhh!


Rub it in, we are below zero at this moment


----------



## ldiat

Pugg said:


> Rub it in, we are below zero at this moment


ok no wind no clouds just blue skies and sun..


----------



## KenOC

Pugg said:


> Rub it in, we are below zero at this moment


I'll certainly be thinking about you tomorrow when I take my laps in the pool and relax in the hot tub.


----------



## Pugg

KenOC said:


> I'll certainly be thinking about you tomorrow when I take my laps in the pool and relax in the hot tub.


I will do that to when we are ice-skating next week .


----------



## Dan Ante

Just put another pack of Heineken in the cooler for to morrow phew this heat its just too much...


----------



## Pugg

Dan Ante said:


> Just put another pack of Heineken in the cooler for to morrow phew this heat its just too much...


Hot chocolate milk, more appropriate in this part of the world.


----------



## Dr Johnson

@Ken, Idiat etc

That's quite enough smugness from you lot!


----------



## Dr Johnson

KenOC said:


> I'll certainly be thinking about you tomorrow when I take my laps in the pool and relax in the hot tub.


What are property prices like where you are?


----------



## Luchesi

Dr Johnson said:


> @Ken, Idiat etc
> 
> That's quite enough smugness from you lot!


heh heh And ask them about the earthquake forecast. Nature has a way of punishing CA with extremes. Interestingly, both the seismic patterns and consequences of their weather extremes are a result of the configuration of the continent.


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> heh heh And ask them about the earthquake forecast. Nature has a way of punishing CA with extremes.


I looked at the history of earthquake deaths in California and found that an average of just under three lives per year have been lost to earthquakes over the past 100 years. No competition for floods, hurricanes, and tornados elsewhere!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_California


----------



## Pugg

minus 4 on the balcony digital thermometer :devil:


----------



## Totenfeier

We had a little tiny ice storm here yesterday morning that subsequently melted in a cold rain during the afternoon.


----------



## Nate Miller

Yesterday was the first time I had to put the truck into 4 wheel drive this winter. While I was at Church it snowed a couple inches, but there weren't enough cars on the road and it was snowing too hard for the ice melt to really work. Then after it dropped maybe 3 inches of snow, it went over to rain, then the temps dropped to the low 20s overnight, so this morning was an Ice Palace.

It was pretty and I can drive on ice, so it was nice to look at

today will stay below freezing and the wind will be up, so its a pretty looking day, but its hard to be out for long


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> I looked at the history of earthquake deaths in California and found that an average of just under three lives per year have been lost to earthquakes over the past 100 years. No competition for floods, hurricanes, and tornados elsewhere!
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_California


I think I remember you worked with statistics in your career.


----------



## Luchesi

Totenfeier said:


> We had a little tiny ice storm here yesterday morning that subsequently melted in a cold rain during the afternoon.


A vort max went right over North Carolina.


----------



## Pugg

Minus 8 on the thermometer .


----------



## vesteel

25 degrees Celsius- it's ok


----------



## Taggart

Snow on the Norfolk Coast.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Taggart said:


> Snow on the Norfolk Coast.


And inland. I drove to Thetford today and the snow started west of Mildenhall.

Thankfully none (yet) where I live.


----------



## Luchesi

Dr Johnson said:


> And inland. I drove to Thetford today and the snow started west of Mildenhall.
> 
> Thankfully none (yet) where I live.


A vort max reached the west coast of England by 19 GMT. These circulate energetically in harmony with the planet's rotation and rapidly lift the available moisture. Interesting stuff..


----------



## Luchesi

Thanks Taggart, I don't know if members are interested in their local meteorology.


----------



## Pugg

Luchesi said:


> Thanks Taggart, I don't know if members are interested in their local meteorology.


I am, nice to see others have sun or frost like we in the Netherlands.


----------



## Luchesi

Pugg said:


> I am, nice to see others have sun or frost like we in the Netherlands.


Yes, and maybe a little bit about why, if there are interesting points to be made? Nothing too long/boring or technical.


----------



## KenOC

Still balmy and sunny here. Still no rain. None. I'm told the supermarkets have plenty of beer.

A report today had researchers combing over a hundred years or more of weather records. If we have so little rain this late in the season, how often do we recover by the time the rain season ends? Answer: Never.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Still balmy and sunny here. Still no rain. None. I'm told the supermarkets have plenty of beer.
> 
> A report today had researchers combing over a hundred years or more of weather records. If we have so little rain this late in the season, how often do we recover by the time the rain season ends? Answer: Never.


Recently, all the energy has been in the NE US and Western Europe. In general terms, this energy has become more concentrated. Making headlines. You've been left out because of this shift. It's a little scary that a little warming has done this (only since about 2011, and then 2012 through 2015 all the confusion for CA for a few years caused by the back and forth ENSO).

We try to simplify it like this, but until there's 2 or 3 degrees of warming it will remain nebulous and speculative.


----------



## Dr Johnson

KenOC said:


> *Still balmy and sunny here. Still no rain. None. I'm told the supermarkets have plenty of beer.*
> 
> A report today had researchers combing over a hundred years or more of weather records. If we have so little rain this late in the season, how often do we recover by the time the rain season ends? Answer: Never.


Fancy a house swap for a couple of months, Ken?


----------



## KenOC

Dr Johnson said:


> Fancy a house swap for a couple of months, Ken?


Sorry, I don't really have a house, just a hole in the ground.


----------



## Dr Johnson

KenOC said:


> Sorry, I don't really have a house, just a hole in the ground.


Not a problem, Ken, as long as it doesn't rain and it is warm!

As you have been so frank, it's only fair to point out that there are some structural issues _chez_ Johnson at the moment.










But don't let that put you off, the builders are lovely people and only want tea twice a day, no biscuits.


----------



## Guest

No biscuits? Are you sure they're bona fide builders?


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Sorry, I don't really have a house, just a hole in the ground.


Jeebus Ken. I hope that's sorted soon.


----------



## Granate

The cold weeks are finally gone. The temperatures have raised and we have clear skies with 12-16ºC. Happy because we have had a January of standard Winter with cold and rain.

I've seen many British caravans enjoying the sunny days in our beach while the police keeps stopping BMWs for drug traffic control. We are miserably happy down here.


----------



## starthrower

Everything I've been reading about global warming is pretty frightening. I don't know if it's related in any way, but the forecast for Tues-Wed here is for temps close to 70 F. That's crazy for February in Syracuse, NY. Those are mid April temps for this area.


----------



## Taplow

Granate said:


> The cold weeks are finally gone. The temperatures have raised and we have clear skies with 12-16ºC.


A lovely snowfall in southern Bavaria yesterday providing a blanket of white today. Children building snowmen. It reminded me very much of the many winters I spent living in Norway which, strangely, I found very comforting. However, it hasn't stopped me thinking about a short vacation in Malaga and Gibraltar. I should probably make more concrete arrangements for that before the weather gets too much warmer and those British tourists down there become a swarm.


----------



## Pugg

Taplow said:


> A lovely snowfall in southern Bavaria yesterday providing a blanket of white today. Children building snowmen. It reminded me very much of the many winters I spent living in Norway which, strangely, I found very comforting. However, it hasn't stopped me thinking about a short vacation in Malaga and Gibraltar. I should probably make more concrete arrangements for that before the weather gets too much warmer and those British tourists down there become a swarm.


That's what we have in Schevingen with the Germans .


----------



## senza sordino

I woke up to snow this morning. I was hoping winter was over, I guess not.










I went for a walk in the afternoon


----------



## Dan Ante

Cyclone Gita approaches NZ batten down the hatches...


----------



## Pugg

Arctic condition predicted next week in my country, people going crazy ( in a good way) about skating...............


----------



## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> Everything I've been reading about global warming is pretty frightening. I don't know if it's related in any way, but the forecast for Tues-Wed here is for temps close to 70 F. That's crazy for February in Syracuse, NY. Those are mid April temps for this area.


I have friends near Albany. They're hearty folks, but I've heard that their winter has been something to talk about. What do you think is happening? I asked them and they are confused about a warming planet causing memorable cold outbreaks.


----------



## Dan Ante

We missed the fury of cyclone Gita but got 5 hr power outage plus a little swipe from its tail a couple of trees down which have now been removed and left me with about 2 years firewood just after I invested in a heat pump you cant win em all.
Last load of fire wood to be split and then I can rest with a cold one :cheers:


----------



## Sloe

It is below freezing temperature and seems to be that for the following ten days. No improvement in sight. I cant have it like this.


----------



## KenOC

starthrower said:


> Everything I've been reading about global warming is pretty frightening...


Onion headline: "Sighing, Resigned Climate Scientists Say To Just Enjoy Next 20 Years As Much As You Can"


----------



## Pugg

Sloe said:


> It is below freezing temperature and seems to be that for the following ten days. No improvement in sight. I cant have it like this.


The same here, it is minus 11 Celsius on our balcony


----------



## Pugg

Unbelievable minus 15C it's bloody cold outside, thank goodness for floor heating.


----------



## Dan Ante

Pugg said:


> Unbelievable minus 15C it's bloody cold outside, thank goodness for floor heating.


Winter draws on eh.....


----------



## Dr Johnson

Snowing here now


----------



## Pugg

Dr Johnson said:


> Snowing here now


And much more snow to come I hear.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Pugg said:


> And much more snow to come I hear.


Oh God! 

(To use no harsher term)


----------



## Taggart

Flurries of snow here. Then the sun comes out and it all goes away ... until the next time.

Back garden about 20 minutes ago:


----------



## Dan Ante

You lot that are in winter are the temperatures colder that normal for the time of year? I ask because I am wondering what ours will be like.


----------



## Pugg

For my country, we are below what we are use to, been a long time since it was so cold in February.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Heatwave here


----------



## Dan Ante

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Heatwave here


We are way down to 13 degC time for winter draws.


----------



## Dan Ante

Pugg said:


> For my country, we are below what we are use to, been a long time since it was so cold in February.


I only hope we do not follow suite.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Dan Ante said:


> We are way down to 13 degC time for winter draws.


That's cold, hope you've been lighting the fire at night- I haven't been below 18 C for months


----------



## KenOC

The blessed rain approacheth from the northwest. Our swollen tongues thrust from parched lips turned skyward, begging for the precious drops of sustenance to fall from the heavens.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Effing, bl**dy cold! 

I'm thinking of wearing thermal underwear _indoors,_ even with the heating on.


----------



## Taplow

Damn those pesky Siberians and their pesky weather! Waking up to -12°C here in southern Bavaria. Unheard of!

I only hope it lifts soon.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Me too.

I suddenly remembered this scene from Withnail & I:


----------



## Ingélou

'The Beast from the East' finally arrived in Seaside Norfolk yesterday afternoon. It's sunny and pretty outside at present, but it must have snowed overnight though the snow isn't very deep at present - 2 or 3 inches. But is is very cold.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Update: I have put my longjohns on under my trousers.

I wonder what the price of property is like in the Caribbean?

Update: and now it's snowing too


----------



## Dan Ante

Ingélou said:


> 'The Beast from the East' finally arrived in Seaside Norfolk yesterday afternoon. It's sunny and pretty outside at present, but it must have snowed overnight though the snow isn't very deep at present - 2 or 3 inches. But is is very cold.


That's what we call a frost


----------



## Taggart

Remember the "good old days" when you woke up with frost on the *inside *of the windows?


----------



## Dr Johnson

Yes, but without any nostalgia.


----------



## Dan Ante

Taggart said:


> Remember the "good old days" when you woke up with frost on the *inside *of the windows?


Still do in the wash house lol...


----------



## elgar's ghost

Snowing heavily a short while ago (really large flakes). Now the sun's out. If it snows again I'm sure it won't deter the ice cream van from turning up at its usual time.

As they say, _'there's nothing between here and the Urals...'_.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Dr Johnson said:


> Update: I have put my longjohns on under my trousers.


Have you tucked the bottoms in under your sock suspenders? :lol:


----------



## Dr Johnson

elgars ghost said:


> Have you tucked the bottoms in under your sock suspenders? :lol:


Of course!


----------



## Pugg

Dr Johnson said:


> Update: I have put my longjohns on under my trousers.
> 
> I wonder what the price of property is like in the Caribbean?
> 
> Update: and now it's snowing too


----------



## Dan Ante

Pugg said:


>


I have seen things like that on the dark www.


----------



## Ingélou

Heavy snow overnight. 
I've had to cancel tomorrow's fiddle lesson
- the schools are closed
- the newspaper hasn't arrived as the newsagent isn't allowed to send the kids out on health and safety grounds 
(so we codgers will be trudging round to the shop after breakfast)
- and finest of all - *ta da! *
- Taggart has promised to post a photo later, of 'Snow at Gorleston-on-Sea'!


----------



## Kivimees

It was -25 C when I woke this morning. :wave:


----------



## Dan Ante

Kivimees said:


> It was -25 C when I woke this morning. :wave:


That's a bit chilly......


----------



## Guest

elgars ghost said:


> Snowing heavily a short while ago (really large flakes). Now the sun's out. If it snows again I'm sure it won't deter the ice cream van from turning up at its usual time.
> 
> As they say, _'there's nothing between here and the Urals...'_.


Well, only a Beast, of course.

Just put on my shades - sunshine so bright I was about to go snow blind - but the clouds have reasserted themselves and now I can't see for the shades.

Ah, snowing again...that's better.


----------



## Taggart

Nice here in Norfolk



















Any more and we'll have to get the skis out!


----------



## Guest

This is terrible. I've put my winter wardrobe away.


----------



## LezLee

Horizontal snow here in Central Scotland. Bloody cold. Schools closed, trains in chaos, my physio session cancelled.
My sister in North Yorks. has dug out her mukluks and snowshoes from when she was in Nunavut. A skidoo would be handy!


----------



## Kivimees

dogen said:


> This is terrible. I've put my winter wardrobe away.


Then it's your own fault. I don't put away my winter wardrobe until May.


----------



## Guest

Kivimees said:


> Then it's your own fault. I don't put away my winter wardrobe until May.


Exactly. Eveyone knows the old saying (apart from dogen apparently) (see Oxford Online)


Do not discard your winter clothes until summer has fully arrived


----------



## Kivimees

MacLeod said:


> Exactly. Eveyone knows the old saying (apart from dogen apparently) (see Oxford Online)
> 
> 
> Do not discard your winter clothes until summer has fully arrived


In that case I shouldn't put away my winter wardrobe until July.


----------



## LezLee

The saying is: “Ne’er cast a clout, ‘til May be out”


----------



## LezLee

The trains are cancelled today and tomorrow and for the first time ever, there’s a Red snow warning. It was previously just a Zappa.


----------



## Guest

Do you think the Met Office has some Zappa fans?


----------



## Dr Johnson

dogen said:


> Do you think the Met Office has some Zappa fans?


There must be some, trudging across the tundra.

Speaking of which, I don't remember ever feeling so cold before. Even in Belgrade in November 1983 when the Danube dried up and the electricity didn't work so there was no heating in the hotel I was staying in.


----------



## Guest

My worst was when I was in Venice. It was March, but air came across northern Italy from Siberia bringing heavy snow and strong winds. I was suitably wrapped up but felt as if I was naked and being hosed with ice cold water. Jeebus.


----------



## Dan Ante

dogen said:


> This is terrible. I've put my winter wardrobe away.


You are too well organised I don't have a wardrobe I just have piles.


----------



## Pugg

Taggart said:


> Nice here in Norfolk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Any more and we'll have to get the skis out!


How is Scotland holding up now?


----------



## Dr Johnson

Dan Ante said:


> You are too well organised I don't have a wardrobe *I just have piles*.


You can get an operation for those. Don't suffer unnecessarily!


----------



## KenOC

Thinking about all you fine folks as I sip my toddy on the sands down at Laguna Beach...


----------



## Dr Johnson

Mighty generous of you!

:lol:

Update: I've just had a quick look on Skyscanner and what do you know? The cheapest return flight to John Wayne airport is a paltry £508!

So Mrs Johnson and I will be hopping on to the plane tomorrow and should be at your place about 17 hours later.

Sorted!

:lol:


----------



## Guest

The Beast from the East vs. Storm Emma.

When I was a lad we just had weather.

(18 hours and counting, stuck in vehicles in sub-zero. This is surely life-threatening.)


----------



## Guest

dogen said:


> The Beast from the East vs. Storm Emma.
> 
> When I was a lad we just had weather.
> 
> (18 hours and counting, stuck in vehicles in sub-zero. This is surely life-threatening.)


Well judging by your current posting, you're still alive...now safely out of the jam, I hope?

When I was lad, 't weather wor much worse! Or perhaps it was just I spent so much time out in it...

"Go on, put your wellies on and go out and play...and don't come back 'til tea time!"


----------



## Luchesi

dogen said:


> The Beast from the East vs. Storm Emma.
> 
> When I was a lad we just had weather.
> 
> (18 hours and counting, stuck in vehicles in sub-zero. This is surely life-threatening.)


They're saying it's expected to be like this, because the planet is retaining more energy (due to insufficient outflow). Can bad weather get worse? What do you think? Higher winds? Storm tracks shifting south pushing colder arctic air farther south? Increased snow amounts due to warmer oceans?


----------



## elgar's ghost

In the UK we only call this bad weather because in those places where on the rare occasions it happens we seem fairly useless at coping with it.


----------



## Dan Ante

Luchesi said:


> Increased snow amounts due to warmer oceans?


I think that is the big mover, our climate depends on the ocean currents.


----------



## KenOC

Thinking about our US members living on the Northeast seaboard.

"High winds to cause widespread power outages, travel disruptions and property damage. Flooding rainfall in store for some locations, and coastal flooding will occur. Rain to end as snow in many areas, with risk of a foot or more of heavy, wet snow in a narrow zone."

"An already potent storm will track off the Atlantic coast and become a bomb cyclone that is likely to cause high winds, coastal flooding and heavy wet snow in the northeastern United States centered on Friday."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/othe...ding-snow-and-coastal-havoc-on-tap/ar-BBJKGWj


----------



## Sloe

Still horrible cold and Windy. There Will be 0 degrees on tuesday. Hope it Will be the end.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Still nice and sunny here


----------



## Dan Ante

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Still nice and sunny here


Yeh we are a bit sticky at the moment, that reminds me I must load the fridge up with a fresh supply.


----------



## elgar's ghost

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Still nice and sunny here


----------



## KenOC

elgars ghost said:


>


I must refill my Margarita and head to the pool to think that one over.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Hi, Ken!

Just to say, we're on the plane heading your way!

Set up a couple of Margaritas and put out the extra sun loungers.

I just know we're going to have a great time!

:lol:

(We've had to bring Mrs Johnson's mother, but you'd hardly know she's incontinent and one gets used to the smell quite quickly).


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

elgars ghost said:


>


You can come to the Bells Beach Surf Comp if you like, its on at the end of the Month.

https://www.ripcurl.com.au/events/international/rip-curl-pro-bells-beach.html


----------



## Kivimees

Things are looking up - a balmy -14 C here this morning. :wave:


----------



## Dan Ante

elgars ghost said:


>










....................................


----------



## Tristan

We are finally getting some rain and snow here in California and we desperately need it


----------



## KenOC

Tristan said:


> We are finally getting some rain and snow here in California and we desperately need it


In my area:
(1) Normal rainfall, rainy season to date: 10.07"
(2) Rainfall through this date last year: 15.71"
(3) Rainfall through this date this year: 1.43"

Yes, it's a bit dry here lately!


----------



## Sloe

It will be 0 degrees on Monday and continue to be plus during the day and minus during the night.


----------



## Dr Johnson

More bl**dy snow overnight! 

This time yesterday most of the snow had gone. Now look at it!


----------



## Pugg

> More bl**dy snow overnight!


Same here, about 6 cm , and still the newspapers where on time, poor woman.


----------



## KenOC

We're having another rain front, of sorts. The main front has passed though with less then a quarter inch of the wet stuff. The TV is going on as if we should all be building our arks! :lol:


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Still sunny and fine here


----------



## Taggart

KenOC said:


> We're having another rain front, of sorts. The main front has passed though with less then a quarter inch of the wet stuff. The TV is going on as if we should all be building our arks! :lol:


Doubtless, sponsored by the local timber merchant!


----------



## Guest

About 9 inches up here with more to come. In my area people have quite a healthy attitude to 'snarr'. One basically stays indoors until it stops snowing. 

Unfortunately the concert I was going to tonight, my first since last August, has been cancelled.


----------



## Dan Ante

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Still sunny and fine here


Same here perfect super but makes you thirsty. ..


----------



## Guest

It is forecast to snow here every day for the next ten days.

It should be very pretty for a bit.


----------



## elgar's ghost

We've another day to wait before the beginning of the Great Thaw with the possibility of more snow later today. Unless I brave the elements later this could be my first pub-free weekend since before Christmas.


----------



## Dr Johnson

elgars ghost said:


> We've another day to wait before the beginning of the Great Thaw with the possibility of more snow later today. Unless I brave the elements later this could be my first pub-free weekend since before Christmas.


Do you have supplies of ale in the house?


----------



## elgar's ghost

Dr Johnson said:


> Do you have supplies of ale in the house?


No, I've never been a home drinker but I do get a few cans or bottles of beer from my sister at Christmas and on my birthday which can then sit around for weeks, if not months. If I'm being honest I'd rather she not get them but it's part of her routine so I let her get on with it.


----------



## TxllxT




----------



## TxllxT

*End of the winter on International Women's Day*

Today many Russians were busy with fishing on the ice of the Finnish gulf. All of a sudden however there came a sea wave that caused a lot of alarm & excitement.


----------



## Ingélou

Here in seaside Norfolk, we'd been bracing ourselves this weekend gone for a return of thick snow and 'The Beast from The East Part 2' or - since it was due to be a shorter spell of snow - 'The Mini-beast from the East'.

There was no snow, just a terribly strong wind and raw & bitter temperatures. So today on Facebook I expressed relief that the Beast had been a no-show - only to be taken to task, quite rightly, by a Friend for forgetting the local damage that I'd highlighted on my own Timeline just two days previously.

 How could I have forgotten this?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-43448270


----------



## elgar's ghost

We had snow over the weekend but it was inconsistent - a bit of powder one minute, big soapflakes the next. A thin-ish layer settled because it was bitterly cold yesterday and Saturday, especially with that biting gusty wind coming from the east. It's about 5 deg. C out there now and sunny, so the thin layer of snow which did settle is disappearing fairly quickly. I gather the nights will still be cold until Wednesday, but I won't mind that as long as it's calm.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

We have had fires here in Oz over 100 Houses destroyed, we could use some cold wet weather

https://www.chillifm.com.au/news/national-news/107883-up-to-100-properties-destroyed-in-nsw-fire

https://www.northernstar.com.au/news/fires-destroy-least-45-homes-residents-flee/3364613/


----------



## KenOC

One to three inches of rain forecast Wednesday through Thursday. Doesn't seem like much, but it may be our final fling against a miserable rainy season, where we have maybe two inches now against an annual average of thirteen.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> One to three inches of rain forecast Wednesday through Thursday. Doesn't seem like much, but it may be our final fling against a miserable rainy season, where we have maybe two inches now against an annual average of thirteen.


It's notable that you posted your sparse amount of rain today on the equinox, because the North Pole is coming out of 6 months of darkness and heat loss, which is a key part of the puzzle of why you've had so little of the winter storm track. It's all shifted to the east, due to the increasing strength of global circulations. A bad combination for CA and most western states, the cold arctic air is allowed to fall south and elongate the normal winter storm track to the south and east.

In a month or so your weather will return to normal. but normal for you by then means that the storm track will be north of you most of the time.


----------



## Granate

KenOC said:


> One to three inches of rain forecast Wednesday through Thursday. Doesn't seem like much, but it may be our final fling against a miserable rainy season, where we have maybe two inches now against an annual average of thirteen.


Many parts of Spain however are on their way to duplicate the inches of the whole March 2017. This month has been incredibly rainy and stormy.


----------



## Merl

Unbelievably it's been a very pleasant, sunny day here in the Kingdom of Fife. That shiny yellow thing has been in the Sky all day and it got so warm I even ended up opening my classroom window. Has the Scottish Winter finally come to an end?


----------



## Luchesi

Merl said:


> Unbelievably it's been a very pleasant, sunny day here in the Kingdom of Fife. That shiny yellow thing has been in the Sky all day and it got so warm I even ended up opening my classroom window. Has the Scottish Winter finally come to an end?


According to the models we use look out for next Tuesday through Thursday and then the cold air behind it.


----------



## ZJovicic

Still snowy here in Bosnia in spite of the date. New snow forecast for tomorrow and Friday.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Grey, dank, chilly, more rain forecast.

Indoor sports today.


----------



## Pugg

The coming weekend looks good in our neck of the woods, finally spring...20 Celsius.


----------



## Pat Fairlea

Yorkshire this morning: 1.5 Celsius and snowing. In April. Oh, how we laughed!


----------



## Luchesi

Pat Fairlea said:


> Yorkshire this morning: 1.5 Celsius and snowing. In April. Oh, how we laughed!


In simple terms, with the planet retaining more heat/energy the waves that cause weather are strong enough in the early spring to oppose the push of the returning Sun.

Seasonal delays are talked about in weather circles as being indicative of AGW. But so far the effect has been slight so we should reserve judgment.


----------



## TxllxT

One month ago we planned our upcoming holiday, that will start tomorrow. Now looking at Vienna, where w'll be next week, the 14-days forecast predicts temperatures of 23-24 Celcius! Not only spring, summer is coming! :tiphat:


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

It still dry here and we are looking for rain, with some areas still in Bushfire watch and its almost winter


----------



## Luchesi

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> It still dry here and we are looking for rain, with some areas still in Bushfire watch and its almost winter


You'll have rain the 13th clearing out on the 15th?


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Luchesi said:


> You'll have rain the 13th clearing out on the 15th?


Where and are you a weather god?


----------



## Luchesi

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Where and are you a weather god?


I don't know if I am.


----------



## Pugg

Spring definitely in the air, the garden is blossoming and the lilac trees are growing like crazy, in a few weeks a see of purple and white flowers,


----------



## KenOC

Summer is starting up here. In the mid-80s today and tomorrow, and then cooling off a bit again. But definitely, summer is in the air.


----------



## ZJovicic

Very warm today in Banja Luka, Bosnia. 30°C / 86°F
Summer in April.


----------



## Roger Knox

Drizzle in Toronto today but getting milder, won't stop us getting out to memorials for van massacre here.


----------



## hpowders

Roger Knox said:


> Drizzle in Toronto today but getting milder, won't stop us getting out to memorials for van massacre here.


It shows that it can happen anywhere. No place is "safe" in today's world.


----------



## Roger Knox

hpowders said:


> It shows that it can happen anywhere. No place is "safe" in today's world.


Too true. We hope people still will visit us.


----------



## hpowders

Roger Knox said:


> Too true. We hope people still will visit us.


I would go there....except it's too Otta-D-Wa.


----------



## KenOC

The summer heat keeps threatening, and we have been into the 80s recently. The threat has receded a bit and the mid-70s rule for a few days, but we all know what's coming.


----------



## Dan Ante

What is coming ?? I need to know.


----------



## Dr Johnson

Rain, rain, rain here and dark as Egypt's night.


----------



## hpowders

Sunny and beautiful this morning. Went and placed some grass seed on the front lawn. Ten minutes of work.

I'm bushed!!!


----------



## Roger Knox

Bright but partly cloudy here, 12 degrees, winds northwest around 20 km/h. 
Thanks Taggart for starting this thread, and best wishes.


----------



## TxllxT

Last night was the warmest May-night (18,3 degrees Celsius) in Holland since 1901.


----------



## EdwardBast

Does a pollen storm count as weather? 

Today I was out just after midnight under cool, clear skies and no moon. Donning a headlamp (for night hiking) I went down to the crossroads for some stargazing. On the way back I turned on the lamp to find myself in the midst of a pollen blizzard. Tiny yellow-green flecks were streaming through the air, imperceptibly light when they hit the skin but turning the air opaque like when one uses high-beam headlights driving in heavy snow. What a strange effect.


----------



## Luchesi

EdwardBast said:


> Does a pollen storm count as weather?
> 
> Today I was out just after midnight under cool, clear skies and no moon. Donning a headlamp (for night hiking) I went down to the crossroads for some stargazing. On the way back I turned on the lamp to find myself in the midst of a pollen blizzard. Tiny yellow-green flecks were streaming through the air, imperceptibly light when they hit the skin but turning the air opaque like when one uses high-beam headlights driving in heavy snow. What a strange effect.


The White Mulberry blasts pollen at half the speed of sound. The fastest speed in all biology. I guess it could be dangerous...


----------



## agoukass

A balmy 70 degrees Fahrenheit and windy here. I would have gone outside and ridden my bike, but I had students to tutor earlier today and then had other errands to run.


----------



## atsizat

The weather is damn hot here. I am sweating all over myself sitting at home.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Its snowing here in the high country


----------



## KenOC

Summer is coming on -- the palm trees are swaying in the breeze, but air conditioners aren't running yet. 72F today, but should be close to 90F by late in the week...


----------



## Guest

Got down to 3ºC this morning. Chilly.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

shirime said:


> Got down to 3ºC this morning. Chilly.


Same here, had ice on my windscreen


----------



## Guest

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Same here, had ice on my windscreen


Same here, had ice on my windscreen


----------



## Guest

You're in Melbourne too, aren't you?


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Yep .


----------



## Guest

EddieRUKiddingVarese said:


> Yep .


I might have a performance of a solo clarinet piece at the NGV for their NGV/MoMA exhibition in August (I have to 'musically respond' to some of the artworks there). You should come.

Also I have some songs for soprano, flute and percussion being performed later that month and a premiere of a solo guitar piece in September. You should come to those as well.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

shirime said:


> I might have a performance of a solo clarinet piece at the NGV for their NGV/MoMA exhibition in August (I have to 'musically respond' to some of the artworks there). You should come.


Sounds good, where will it be performed


----------



## Guest

eddierukiddingvarese said:


> sounds good, where will it be performed


ngv 

.........................................................


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

shirime said:


> ngv


Oh my bad, National Gallery of Victoria Nice


----------



## Ingélou

Day after day of hot sunny weather - and we're lucky here in seaside Norfolk as there's usually a light breeze. But the pollen count being so high is not helping my sinus and ear problem, and the drought is a bit sad for the garden. 

The lawn - well, luckily we never had a lawn. In normal British weather it's a 'paddock', and at present, it's a brown and threadbare outdoor carpet.


----------



## KenOC

Forecast for tomorrow is 110F/43C. That's easily the hottest in the 20 years I've lived here.


----------



## elgar's ghost

KenOC said:


> Forecast for tomorrow is 110F/43C. That's easily the hottest in the 20 years I've lived here.


That's insane. Absolutely no way I would want to be walking about in that. Yesterday I felt drained walking for just two miles with the temperatures we have here.


----------



## KenOC

Well, it hit 111F today, but we survived. Much whining on Facebook though!


----------



## Guest

Currently it's 13ºC (55 in the USA scale) in the middle of the day.


----------



## KenOC

Cooler today! A relatively balmy 109F...that's 43C...


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Cooler today! A relatively balmy 109F...that's 43C...


Thanks Ken. Because of your posts I looked again at why you're so close to records being broken (if they haven't been). The weak ridge axis is actually trailing west-southwest, so it doesn't look like a particularly hot pattern. This is bad news for the future of warming on this planet.


----------



## Fredx2098

shirime said:


> Currently it's 13ºC (55 in the USA scale) in the middle of the day.


I'm so jealous of you 'stralians. It's been in the 80s-90s (Fahrenheit, blegh, ~30 Celsius) for a while here.


----------



## Dan Ante

--5C over night and +5C day, and now rain and storms forecast.


----------



## atsizat

Hot as devil here with high humidity. Above 30*C in day. Above 20*C in night. I would prefer the climate of high elevated places of the country away from sea. I like cold and I hate heat.

I would prefer -20*C to a humid +30*C. There is no cold but bad clothing.


----------



## Luchesi

Weather comes to you in planetary waves, moving west to east in the US. If you track where you are under the wave within the larger wave it becomes an interesting hobby. The familiar fronts and backs are the surface splashes and collisions of these shorter waves. 'Sounds almost clamorous..


----------



## joen_cph

Here in Denmark, it´s been more than 50 days with no rain of significance, and record high average temperatures. 
Today is sunny, with almost no wind, up to 32 degrees at noon, making staying indoor more pleasant. 

The use of open fires has been prohibited for many days. Farmers are very worried, our 1100 wine growers (among them, 90 have started a more or less commercial production so far) feel very optimistic as regards the future.


----------



## elgar's ghost

KenOC said:


> Well, it hit 111F today, but we survived. _Much whining on Facebook though!_


Nothing new there, then...


----------



## starthrower

Horrible humid rainy week here (central NY) in the middle of summer. And we so much look forward to this in winter!


----------



## Joe B

starthrower said:


> Horrible humid rainy week here (central NY) in the middle of summer. And we so much look forward to this in winter!


I hear you....not much different here in CT. Maybe I'll get back to stacking wood this weekend. This week has turned out to be a bust as far as getting anything done outside.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Here in Denmark, it´s been more than 50 days with no rain of significance, and record high average temperatures.
> Today is sunny, with almost no wind, up to 32 degrees at noon, making staying indoor more pleasant.
> 
> The use of open fires has been prohibited for many days. Farmers are very worried, our 1100 wine growers (among them, 90 have started a more or less commercial production so far) feel very optimistic as regards the future.


40 celsius here today. It should be the last one until next year, because the humidity's going up to 20 percent and the Sun's heading south faster now. That's the only two factors here, because the planetary waves don't reach us down here until September, some years it's October.


----------



## EddieRUKiddingVarese

Still cold and raining here


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> 40 celsius here today. It should be the last one until next year, because the humidity's going up to 20 percent and the Sun's heading south faster now. That's the only two factors here, because the planetary waves don't reach us down here until September, some years it's October.


Where are you living then?

They say the heat wave here may last even a month more.

Our neighbours, the Swedes, have now dropped military bombs at places, targeting the big, long-lasting forest fires, and it seems to work locally.


----------



## TxllxT

We got the family over from the Czech Republic. What to do with 33 degrees?


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Where are you living then?
> 
> They say the heat wave here may last even a month more.
> 
> Our neighbours, the Swedes, have now dropped military bombs at places, targeting the big, long-lasting forest fires, and it seems to work locally.


The weather over Joe B post #1097 is blocking your normal weather coming from your west. It should breakup by the first week of August and then normal weather will head your way. They'll get their summer and you'll get rain. I live far south of your dynamic lows.


----------



## joen_cph

Thanks for the input. Makes one think of a work title by Varese then, at least.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Thanks for the input. Makes one think of a work title by Varese then, at least.


Interesting sophisticate

"While he was in Paris, Varèse had another pivotal experience during a performance of Beethoven's Seventh Symphony at the Salle Pleyel. As the story goes, during the scherzo movement, perhaps due to the resonance of the hall, Varèse had the experience of the music breaking up and projecting in space. It was an idea that stayed with him for the rest of his life, that he would later describe as consisting of "sound objects, floating in space.""


----------



## Forss

The current heatwave in Stockholm is _barely_ manageable, and it makes one's mind rather dull and hazy. Now I see that Paradise (surely) must be "the Elysian plain…where life is easiest for men. No snow is there, nor heavy storm, nor ever rain, but ever does Ocean send up _blasts of the shrill-blowing West Wind_ that they may give cooling to men."


----------



## Art Rock

It was 35 deg.C in the shade here - our living room temperature close to 29. One more day like this, and then a 10 deg.C drop is predicted. About time. I feel my brain is working less well - yesterday I left my camera in a shop in a nearby town, fortunately realized it before we drove home.


----------



## Pat Fairlea

Outside, as I type, it is pouring with rain. The first significant rainfall for 2 weeks, and a relief during a dry, hot (for Yorkshire) summer. I may go and stand in the garden, just for the rare tactile pleasure of it.


----------



## Luchesi

Forss said:


> The current heatwave in Stockholm is _barely_ manageable, and it makes one's mind rather dull and hazy. Now I see that Paradise (surely) must be "the Elysian plain…where life is easiest for men. No snow is there, nor heavy storm, nor ever rain, but ever does Ocean send up _blasts of the shrill-blowing West Wind_ that they may give cooling to men."


How cold does it get there in your winter? This must be quite an annual range for you.


----------



## Merl

It's been about 26 degrees Celsius here in Fife, Scotland today (which is positively tropical for Chillyjockoland) Actually stayed in for most of the day because it was roasting. Unfortunately, I had to go out in the car at dinner. Felt like I was driving an oven (black cars!). Poor Gibson and Fender (2 of my cats) are still flaked out in the garden.


----------



## Guest

Art Rock said:


> It was 35 deg.C in the shade here - our living room temperature close to 29. One more day like this, and then a 10 deg.C drop is predicted. About time. I feel my brain is working less well - yesterday I left my camera in a shop in a nearby town, fortunately realized it before we drove home.


Me too. Left phone and wallet in the cafe at an exhibition centre...luckily one of the waitresses came to find me!


----------



## eugeneonagain

MacLeod said:


> Me too. Left phone and wallet in the cafe at an exhibition centre...luckily one of the waitresses came to find me!


It's always good to be pursued by a waitress; even if just for lost property.


----------



## Judith

*Heatwave*

How are those affected, coping in the current heatwave?

Must admit, finding it difficult. Known saunas to be colder than this


----------



## Art Rock

Last night was the warmest ever measured in the Netherlands, shattering the previous record by almost 3 degrees Centigrade. Today (and tonight) will be ridiculously hot once more, then day temperatures should drop to a nice 25-26 C.


----------



## elgar's ghost

I gather the temperatures will subside for a few days as of tomorrow but it's back to the hot stuff later next week. I haven't really looked for the meteorological details but is the current weather in Western Europe to do with hot air coming up from North Africa which can't be dislodged by a cooler front?


----------



## Luchesi

elgars ghost said:


> I gather the temperatures will subside for a few days as of tomorrow but it's back to the hot stuff later next week. I haven't really looked for the meteorological details but is the current weather in Western Europe to do with hot air coming up from North Africa which can't be dislodged by a cooler front?


One degree or so of hotter temperatures over the last century isn't the answer. But the increase in energy of one degree across the whole planet has reduced the planetary wave number from 7 to 9 down to 5 to 7. This means that in the late winter and the early summer (in the storm tracks) you get sustained (or blocked) circulations at 20,000 feet. This results in very cold winter outbreaks and hotter than normal summer weeks in the storm tracks in a complicated sequence that's been well studied (the rest of the planet isn't as affected by these shifts from normal circulation patterns, but there's other changes).

It's an interesting subject. It's a little scary because we don't know what will happen next with more energy due to insufficient outflow and rising temperatures.

So far for scientists it might not be the increasing temperature. Many other mechanisms have been proposed. Within a few decades we'll know much more, because much more data is being collected now. Magnetic changes, stratospheric events due the Sun's ultraviolet bursts, ocean cycles, long term cycles with many forcers dampening and reinforcing. The field has been busted wide open.


----------



## Pat Fairlea

Judith said:


> How are those affected, coping in the current heatwave?
> 
> Must admit, finding it difficult. Known saunas to be colder than this


Not sure I am coping, to be honest!


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

When it gets too hot for comfort
And you can't get an ice cream cone
T'ain't no sin to take off your skin
And dance around your bones


----------



## Bulldog

Judith said:


> How are those affected, coping in the current heatwave?


I'm doing fine, although I realize that a heatwave in relatively dry New Mexico is much kinder to the body than a heatwave in more humid spots in the world. Come join us - the weather is great.


----------



## KenOC

Bulldog said:


> I'm doing fine, although I realize that a heatwave in relatively dry New Mexico is much kinder to the body than a heatwave in more humid spots in the world. Come join us - the weather is great.


Nice thing about Albuquerque -- you can jump in the car, turn the A/C on high, and head south for some of that great Hatch chili!


----------



## Bulldog

KenOC said:


> Nice thing about Albuquerque -- you can jump in the car, turn the A/C on high, and head south for some of that great Hatch chili!


Or you can head north to see the Santa Fe Opera and Chamber Music Festival. Or you can go a few miles east and hike up to the Sandia Crest. Or you could head to my house and indulge in that product dreaded by our million dollar rainbow man.


----------



## laurie

It's starting to cool down a bit here, it's forecast to "only" reach 93 degrees today ~  ~ ugh.
But that's _still_ too hot for clothes, according to my grandson! ( Funny how it's adorable ~ & legal! ~ to walk to the neighborhood mailbox in your underwear when you're 5 .... not so much if you're a grown man!) :lol:


----------



## Krummhorn

Judith said:


> How are those affected, coping in the current heatwave?
> 
> Must admit, finding it difficult. Known saunas to be colder than this


Here in the Southwestern Deserts of Arizona we commonly hover in the 100's all summer long. July through September is our "monsoon" season when we get the majority of our annual rainfall. Love the thunder/lightening storms that come through most every afternoon - temperatures drop 30° during the storm, and then two hours later right back up to 110° with humidity to match.

At that point one is actually "drier" in the shower with the water runnning :lol:.

But . . . our winters are why I continue to live here - mostly 72° and only an average of 21 days when the temperature drops to freezing overnight.


----------



## KenOC

As of two days ago:

"Death Valley is in line to set a record for the hottest month ever recorded on Earth.

"Through the first 30 days of July, the average temperature there has been 108 degrees Fahrenheit. The forecast on Tuesday-the last day of the month-calls for a high of 120 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 92 degrees Fahrenheit. If that holds, Death Valley will end July with an average temperature of 107.94 degrees Fahrenheit and a place in the history books for the hottest month reliably recorded anywhere."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...ttest-month-ever-recorded-on-earth/ar-BBLk5nu


----------



## ldiat

KenOC said:


> As of two days ago:
> 
> "Death Valley is in line to set a record for the hottest month ever recorded on Earth.
> 
> "Through the first 30 days of July, the average temperature there has been 108 degrees Fahrenheit. The forecast on Tuesday-the last day of the month-calls for a high of 120 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 92 degrees Fahrenheit. If that holds, Death Valley will end July with an average temperature of 107.94 degrees Fahrenheit and a place in the history books for the hottest month reliably recorded anywhere."
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...ttest-month-ever-recorded-on-earth/ar-BBLk5nu


one should have been in Vegas last week! WOW! HOT. could not even touch the car without being slightly burned! then driving back to socal on the 15......115 reads temp


----------



## Luchesi

Dangerous heat.

In 2015, an elementary teacher from Washington State trusted her GPS and got stuck in southern Utah and was miraculously discovered by happenstance.

Even folks trying to get to Mount Rushmore end up at a campsite 13 miles north so often that there’s a sign posted that reads "Your GPS is wrong… this is not Mount Rushmore."


----------



## Joe B

Northeastern USA is getting hot weather, not terribly hot, but lots of humidity. Our weather is coming up from the Alabama/Georgia area. We're not quite used to this level of humidity, and certainly not used to the pollen that it is bringing up with it.


----------



## joen_cph

camping om Mols, Sølystgård by the sea, has a sandy beach too. Currently Mediterranean-like. A pleasant breeze came from the sea to this small ridge, just above the beach.



joen_cph said:


> Here in Denmark, it´s been more than 50 days with no rain of significance, and record high average temperatures.
> Today is sunny, with almost no wind, up to 32 degrees at noon, making staying indoor more pleasant.
> 
> The use of open fires has been prohibited for many days. Farmers are very worried, our 1100 wine growers (among them, 90 have started a more or less commercial production so far) feel very optimistic as regards the future.


Still a heatwave here in Denmark, temperatures around 30 C, and without rain. I went to the Mols peninsula on a short bicycle/camping holiday and the locals told me it hadn't rained for 3 months. The Danish all-time heat record of 36.5 C might very well be beaten next week, they say.


----------



## KenOC

Could be worse. In Phoenix it's not only hotter than the hinges of Hades, but the occasional dust storm strikes as well. Like yesterday.


----------



## Jos

Well over 30C here for weeks, somewhat alarming I must say. Philippulus predicts we'll die of cold; somehow doubt it.


----------



## Luchesi

Jos said:


> View attachment 106336
> 
> 
> Well over 30C here for weeks, somewhat alarming I must say. Philippulus predicts we'll die of cold; somehow doubt it.


There will be extremes the more energy the planet retains. Late winter and early summer extremes, because the large scale flows have more momentum. The people in the mid-latitude storm tracks are taking note already -- and so far the warming has only been one degree or so.


----------



## Guest

Another really hot day in the UK (27 - well that's hot for the UK!).


----------



## CnC Bartok

Currently in southern France, lowest day temperature so far 34C. Today 37 or 38.

Scorchio!


----------



## Luchesi

Robert Pickett said:


> Currently in southern France, lowest day temperature so far 34C. Today 37 or 38.
> 
> Scorchio!


This weather pattern will begin to break by Wednesday and then things will be mostly normal for Europe. Until the end of August it looks like. So I guess that's the end of the hot summer. We'll see.

The models confidently predicted this change two or three weeks ago, and they haven't wavered. How did they do that? lol Imagine where those weather ripples were three weeks ago!

Some patterns are easier than others and I hope this one is a correct prognosis. The one for North America has been more wishy-washy and nebulous.


----------



## KenOC

We're having a hot summer in California, and the fire season is early and nasty. The largest wildfire in state history is burning up north along with another almost as big. Death Valley in July experienced the hottest month ever reliably recorded anywhere, with an average temperature of 108.1F (42.3C) on a 24-hour basis.

Our governor says this is the "new normal" caused by global warming. I don't think he has much evidence of this. After all, we expect a really hot summer from time to time. So is he right? Nobody really knows.

Here's my local forecast for the rest of the week:


----------



## joen_cph

Reports here that some scientists now talk of possible Domino climate effects, causing 4-5 degrees Celsius global warming and the oceans rising no less than 10 - 60 m, but in the span of a few centuries.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> We're having a hot summer in California, and the fire season is early and nasty. The largest wildfire in state history is burning up north along with another almost as big. Death Valley in July experienced the hottest month ever reliably recorded anywhere, with an average temperature of 108.1F (42.3C) on a 24-hour basis.
> 
> Our governor says this is the "new normal" caused by global warming. I don't think he has much evidence of this. After all, we expect a really hot summer from time to time. So is he right? Nobody really knows.
> 
> Here's my local forecast for the rest of the week:


The lower three quarters of California has a problem. It will only receive average amounts of rain if the large circulation flow can thread the needle. Since the average position of the general circulation flow has shifted, now there's less of a chance for threading the needle. 
Between the cold current and the mountains there's not much space for cyclogenesis to persist long enough in the warm season, so you only get a few, lucky, fast moving waves. 
There's a little good news though. The ENSO often interrupts the shifts of climate change.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Looking forward to tomorrow's temperature drop - it'll make going for afternoon walks far more tolerable for a start.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> We're having a hot summer in California, and the fire season is early and nasty. The largest wildfire in state history is burning up north along with another almost as big. Death Valley in July experienced the hottest month ever reliably recorded anywhere, with an average temperature of 108.1F (42.3C) on a 24-hour basis.
> 
> Our governor says this is the "new normal" caused by global warming. I don't think he has much evidence of this. After all, we expect a really hot summer from time to time. So is he right? Nobody really knows.
> 
> Here's my local forecast for the rest of the week:


I live in Northern CA and the smoke is terrible! Health authorities are recommending to stay indoors as much as possible and to keep doors and windows closed for the rest of the week. Perfect timing for our new whole-house fan!

EDIT: I just found this picture of the outskirts of downtown Sacramento.


----------



## atsizat

31.4*C and it is raining. Humidity: 60%

Heat Index: 36*C

Humid, isn't it?


----------



## joen_cph

Not an all-time heat record here in Denmark as expected, but 33.6 C, hottest for 8 years. Temperatures should descend now, and maybe there'll be some rain soon.

Will be going to the South of France tomorrow, luckily a good way up in the mountains.


----------



## KenOC

Kontrapunctus said:


> I live in Northern CA and the smoke is terrible! Health authorities are recommending to stay indoors as much as possible and to keep doors and windows closed for the rest of the week. Perfect timing for our new whole-house fan!
> 
> EDIT: I just found this picture of the outskirts of downtown Sacramento.


The Tower Bridge looks nice -- in the second picture. Otherwise, yuk. I lived in Sacramento for quite a few years, and things would get smoky in the fall when they burned the rice stubble (they don't do that any more). But it was nothing like this!


----------



## KenOC

Whew! 97F (36C) again today, but not too humid. The Holy Fire continues to burn near here, now in its third day and having consumed over 6,000 acres.

An arrest in the fire: A resident of the tiny community of "Holy Jim" (thus the fire's name) had sent an e-mail to the fire chief last week predicting that "this place will burn." He was embroiled in disputes with neighbors and was "acting erratically" on his arrest for two felony counts of arson, a count of felony threat to terrorize, and a misdemeanor count of resisting arrest. A photographer captured the bizarre sight.


----------



## KenOC

97F again today, and the Holy Fire burns on, now over 10,000 acres. The view from near my place:


----------



## KenOC

Temps are moderating. The Holy Fire has burned 22,700 acres but is now better than 50% contained. The number of people under mandatory evacuation has been halved. Good news!


----------



## Guest

Some beautiful pictures of recent snowfall featured in this article

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...ekend-ahead-for-victoria-20180817-p4zy6f.html


----------



## atsizat

I want to live in a continental climate where average highs are well below zero in winter and average lows are well above zero in summer. 

I don't like living in oceanic climates with mild winters and humid summers. 

I support seasonality but I am against humidity. I never liked the idea of feeling the temperature hotter than it is.


----------



## hpowders

ldiat said:


> one should have been in Vegas last week! WOW! HOT. could not even touch the car without being slightly burned! then driving back to socal on the 15......115 reads temp


August is not the month to visit Las Vegas. Temperatures always peak at over 100 degrees F. Phoenix is the same.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> I want to live in a continental climate where average highs are well below zero in winter and average lows are well above zero in summer.
> 
> I don't like living in oceanic climates with mild winters and humid summers.
> 
> I support seasonality but I am against humidity. I never liked the idea of feeling the temperature hotter than it is.


I think Fairbanks Alaska gets over 90F and 50 below most every year. Lovely...


----------



## Ingélou

What horrible weather - 'cold blow & a rainy night'. It's getting ready for the Great British Bank Holiday, no doubt. We've given in and put the central heating on.


----------



## Luchesi

Ingélou said:


> What horrible weather - 'cold blow & a rainy night'. It's getting ready for the Great British Bank Holiday, no doubt. We've given in and put the central heating on.


The more energy the planet retains the more often the more energized waves will reach farther to the south.

Of course, it's not quite that simple, so experts don't agree. But it's been fairly evident since 2011. Maybe things will reverse back to normal.


----------



## elgar's ghost

I for one am glad it's much cooler at night in the UK now - I sleep much better but I still find it too warm yet for sleeping under a duvet - all I need right now is the duvet cover.


----------



## joen_cph

Big contrasts; already a case of quite heavy snow in Austria, 30 degrees C a few days ago.

http://www.salzburg24.at/schnee-gasteinertal-zeigt-sich-winterlich-im-august/5333906


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Big contrasts; already a case of quite heavy snow in Austria, 30 degrees C a few days ago.
> 
> http://www.salzburg24.at/schnee-gasteinertal-zeigt-sich-winterlich-im-august/5333906


Yes, that cyclone hit the higher elevations and then moved down Italy. It was an interesting event for hobbyists who watch these early-season disturbances. "A disturbance in the force."

The global circulation is gaining energy. Maybe with more warming we'll shift back to normal positions.


----------



## atsizat

In the last one week,

The highest temp recorded in my city has been 33.6*C. ( İzmit, Kocaeli Province)

The highest temp recorded in my province has been 35.9*C. ( Gölcük, Kocaeli Province)

The highest temp recorded in my country has been 44.8*C. ( Cizre, Şırnak Province)


----------



## atsizat

Forecast high for 3rd september is 35*C in my city. 5*C hotter than average.

Average high for my city in hottest month is 29.6*C but some years, the city can get extreme heat waves. The record high in my city was 44.1*C which was measured in July 2000. And the last year temp reached 40.2*C in September, which was the hottest september in the city. It is an oceanic climate in the north of Turkey near Istanbul. A sea side city at Sea Level. I actually like the continental climates with very cold winters in Turkey, not Oceanic Climates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/İzmit


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> Forecast high for 3rd september is 35*C in my city. 5*C hotter than average.
> 
> Average high for my city in hottest month is 29.6*C but some years, the city can get extreme heat waves. The record high in my city was 44.1*C which was measured in July 2000. And the last year temp reached 40.2*C in September, which was the hottest september in the city. It is an oceanic climate in the north of Turkey near Istanbul. A sea side city at Sea Level. I actually like the continental climates with very cold winters in Turkey, not Oceanic Climates.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/İzmit


You have chances of rain Thursday through Saturday of next week.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> You have chances of rain Thursday through Saturday of next week.


The last year, the hottest day of the year happened on 20th September with a high of 40.2*C in the city. And this year, it also looks like the hottest day of the year will happen in September with a forecast high of 35*C on 3rd September in the city unless it gets hotter in late September 

Who says September is not summer in North Hemphisphere? 

We started having the hottest day of the year in September.

5 day weather forecast of the met office:
https://www.mgm.gov.tr/tahmin/il-ve-ilceler.aspx?il=KOCAELI

Edit:

Weather forecast has changed. A high of 36*C is expected on 1st September in my city. Hotter!


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> The last year, the hottest day of the year happened on 20th September with a high of 40.2*C in the city. And this year, it also looks like the hottest day of the year will happen in September with a forecast high of 35*C on 3rd September in the city unless it gets hotter in late September
> 
> Who says September is not summer in North Hemphisphere?
> 
> We started having the hottest day of the year in September.
> 
> 5 day weather forecast of the met office:
> https://www.mgm.gov.tr/tahmin/il-ve-ilceler.aspx?il=KOCAELI
> 
> Edit:
> 
> Weather forecast has changed. A high of 36*C is expected on 1st September in my city. Hotter!


When I was young - weather fascinated me but I became more interested in forestry as a future career. Later I realized that I would be better able to make a living in meteorology, because every government and corporation including the general public needs a person who's able to talk about (and therefore justify expensive decisions) the upcoming two weeks of weather.

As a young person I couldn't understand how weather could be so changeable day today clear one day and then thunderously loud and floods the very next day. Where did all the energy come from and where did it go and why didn't something memorable like that happen every day?

Back in the days of Aristotle people had some fanciful ideas;

"It is because the evaporation takes
place uninterruptedly but differs in degree and quantity that clouds
and winds appear in their natural proportion according to the
season; and it is because there is now a great excess of the vaporous,
now of the dry and smoky exhalation, that some years are rainy and
wet, others windy and dry. Sometimes there is much drought or rain,
and it prevails over a great and continuous stretch of country. At
other times it is local; the surrounding country often getting
seasonable or even excessive rains while there is drought in a certain
part; or, contrariwise, all the surrounding country gets little or
even no rain while a certain part gets rain in abundance.

The reason
for all this is that while the same affection is generally apt to
prevail over a considerable district because adjacent places (unless
there is something special to differentiate them) stand in the same
relation to the sun, yet on occasion the dry evaporation will
prevail in one part and the moist in another, or conversely. Again the
reason for this latter is that each evaporation goes over to that of
the neighbouring district: for instance, the dry evaporation
circulates in its own place while the moist migrates to the next
district or is even driven by winds to some distant place: or else the
moist evaporation remains and the dry moves away. Just as in the
case of the body when the stomach is dry the lower belly is often in
the contrary state, and when it is dry the stomach is moist and
cold, so it often happens that the evaporations reciprocally take
one another's place and interchange."


----------



## atsizat

..........................


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> When I was young - weather fascinated me but I became more interested in forestry as a future career. Later I realized that I would be better able to make a living in meteorology, because every government and corporation including the general public needs a person who's able to talk about (and therefore justify expensive decisions) the upcoming two weeks of weather.
> 
> As a young person I couldn't understand how weather could be so changeable day today clear one day and then thunderously loud and floods the very next day. Where did all the energy come from and where did it go and why didn't something memorable like that happen every day?
> 
> Back in the days of Aristotle people had some fanciful ideas;
> 
> "It is because the evaporation takes
> place uninterruptedly but differs in degree and quantity that clouds
> and winds appear in their natural proportion according to the
> season; and it is because there is now a great excess of the vaporous,
> now of the dry and smoky exhalation, that some years are rainy and
> wet, others windy and dry. Sometimes there is much drought or rain,
> and it prevails over a great and continuous stretch of country. At
> other times it is local; the surrounding country often getting
> seasonable or even excessive rains while there is drought in a certain
> part; or, contrariwise, all the surrounding country gets little or
> even no rain while a certain part gets rain in abundance.
> 
> The reason
> for all this is that while the same affection is generally apt to
> prevail over a considerable district because adjacent places (unless
> there is something special to differentiate them) stand in the same
> relation to the sun, yet on occasion the dry evaporation will
> prevail in one part and the moist in another, or conversely. Again the
> reason for this latter is that each evaporation goes over to that of
> the neighbouring district: for instance, the dry evaporation
> circulates in its own place while the moist migrates to the next
> district or is even driven by winds to some distant place: or else the
> moist evaporation remains and the dry moves away. Just as in the
> case of the body when the stomach is dry the lower belly is often in
> the contrary state, and when it is dry the stomach is moist and
> cold, so it often happens that the evaporations reciprocally take
> one another's place and interchange."


Do you think it is because of global warming that Septembers started having the hottest days of the year instead of July or August?


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> Do you think it is because of global warming that Septembers started having the hottest days of the year instead of July or August?


Paradoxically, we won't be able to answer that question for a few more years (or decades). However, it's the interesting suspicion by experts that IT IS indicative of the delays in the seasonal turnovers which are expected ...because of the warming.

In other words, all across the planet the seasons, as they change, are delayed by a week or two. This is very difficult to quantify because what is the season? What are the telltale beginnings and ends of seasons? If you look at the upper air charts from over the past many decades you'll see what's normal for an seasonal changeover. And these changeovers have been delayed slightly. The winter starts later and the winter storms end later. The circulation patterns of summers are extended, but they begin later. These are all the results of the upper waves that bring us the weather that we experience down here on the surface.

Remember, I'm not a climatologist, but I say we won't confidently know what's happening with the warming for a while, because the warming has been so slight (which is a good thing). But consider that only about a degree of warming has occurred so far. In a few more decades I expect it will be obvious to everyone (not just the people who follow upper air patterns closely) what climate change has brought us.


----------



## Dan Ante

Our Daffodils are coming out earlier each year this year it was just past mid winter.


----------



## haydnguy

I sometimes get the terms confused. As I understand it, 'climate change' is something that naturally occurs, or has happened in the past and is a kind of evolution of the climate of our planet.

The term 'global warming' is a man-made occurrence that is caused by manufacturing, cars, etc.

i guess my question is, if it is actually climate change what can we do about it? And if we could, SHOULD we do something about it since it's a natural evolution of the planet?


----------



## KenOC

As I understand it, the term to reckon with is "anthropogenic climate change," which implies a situation caused by human activity. Climates change over time by themselves, but this is considered a special case. "Global warming" may or may not exist (most scientists seem to believe it is occurring) and may be anthropogenic or caused by other factors.


----------



## Luchesi

haydnguy said:


> I sometimes get the terms confused. As I understand it, 'climate change' is something that naturally occurs, or has happened in the past and is a kind of evolution of the climate of our planet.
> 
> The term 'global warming' is a man-made occurrence that is caused by manufacturing, cars, etc.
> 
> i guess my question is, if it is actually climate change what can we do about it? And if we could, SHOULD we do something about it since it's a natural evolution of the planet?


Climate change in the past has happened as fast as it is happening now, but those were rare events. Climate change in the past generally took a thousand or more years. So, what's happening now, over a few centuries, is alarming for our great grandchildren's lives and their children.

Global warming or global cooling is what causes climate change (it's actually the total energy level of the global circulations, up or down). It doesn't matter whether it's human activity or natural. But of all the forcers there's only one human activity which cools the planet. All the rest warm the planet.

Theoretically, we could sequester carbon. It would be very expensive.
Theoretically, we could shield the planet from the sun. Very expensive and quite tricky/dangerous.


----------



## atsizat

The high was 34*C in the city today.


----------



## KenOC

Death Valley posted 127F (53C) three times in July. The average temperature there in July, on a 24-hour basis, was 108.1F (42.3C), the hottest month "reliably recorded" anywhere in the world in any year.


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> Death Valley posted 127F (53C) three times in July. The average temperature there in July, on a 24-hour basis, was 108.1F (42.3C), the hottest month "reliably recorded" anywhere in the world in any year.


Just wait till it gets hot...


----------



## atsizat

32.4*C at 57% humidity as of 1:21 pm where I live. Heat Index is 37*C at the moment.

Forecast high is 35*C for today.


----------



## Dave Whitmore

This summer has been brutal in the Northeast US. High heat and high humidity. The biggest insult is we're getting another heatwave starting on Monday. 90 degree days in September are like snow days in April. I don't want them!


----------



## atsizat

The high was 34.6*C in the city today.


----------



## atsizat

For quite a long time, the highs has always been above 32*C in the city.

The hottest high in the last 7 days was 34.6*C in the city while the coldest high in the last 7 days was 32.2*C in the city.

I am bored of the above average heat going on in the city but colder than the previous september at least. The city had hit 40.2*C in the previous september ( 20th of September).


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> For quite a long time, the highs has always been above 32*C in the city.
> 
> The hottest high in the last 7 days was 34.6*C in the city while the coldest high in the last 7 days was 32.2*C in the city.
> 
> I am bored of the above average heat going on in the city but colder than the previous september at least. The city had hit 40.2*C in the previous september ( 20th of September).


A local forecaster can tell you why one day is 32c and the next is 34c. I think the public takes this for granted that it's done every day, but how they do it is what's so interesting. I've never met anyone outside of the field that has any idea how this is done. They have a lot of bad guesses. heh

Daily weather changes are an unusual subject that we experience every day and don't really know what's going on (in the details). Every day is a little different for me. Every clear sunny day is the same as every other? The same reasons? the same changes during the day? This stuff has only been known since about 1970. It's quite recent among the sciences, and yet humans have been experiencing daily weather comings and goings for their whole time on the planet.


----------



## joen_cph

We're back to normal weather for a while, and it's been so since mid-August.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> We're back to normal weather for a while, and it's been so since mid-August.


Denmark? Yes, poor little Europe is at the mercy of the large lows far northwest of Ireland. They block the normal sequence and allow weather from the south or the northeast. 
Or the large lows come crashing down and wake everybody up. lol

Weather is normal, like now, when there's a trickle of ripples reaching you. The technical term is actualy short waves. Not very inventive with the names. lol But they were actually named before it was realized how important they are (most places on Earth).


----------



## KenOC

Looks like the first big one of the season for us. Hurricane Florence is looking at landfall in the Carolinas in about five days, as a cat 4 (maybe cat 5) storm. Current forecast calls for 130-145 mph winds at landfall. Both states have declared states of emergency, well in advance.

There is a concern that the ground is already saturated from ongoing rains, and flooding could be a major problem.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Looks like the first big one of the season for us. Hurricane Florence is looking at landfall in the Carolinas in about five days, as a cat 4 (maybe cat 5) storm. Current forecast calls for 130-145 mph winds at landfall. Both states have declared states of emergency, well in advance.
> 
> There is a concern that the ground is already saturated from ongoing rains, and flooding could be a major problem.


People might wonder how the models can do that 5 rotations of the planet into the future? Rotating east to west and the storm won't curve to the northeast? Nope it's too early in the season for that to save those people. This has been a concern with climate change because superstorm Sandy showed how dangerous this trajectory is to populated areas when the storm gets a boost from the jetstream. Thankfully this is too early to get a boost from the jet, because it will remain well to the northwest of the Great Lakes. Lucky timing because often the polar jet is closer to the Carolinas, or the subtropical jet is off the coast of the Carolinas.


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> Looks like the first big one of the season for us. Hurricane Florence is looking at landfall in the Carolinas in about five days, as a cat 4 (maybe cat 5) storm. Current forecast calls for 130-145 mph winds at landfall. Both states have declared states of emergency, well in advance.
> 
> There is a concern that the ground is already saturated from ongoing rains, and flooding could be a major problem.


That is an obscene diagram where are the mods????


----------



## KenOC

Dan Ante said:


> That is an obscene diagram where are the mods????


A guy is taking a Rorschach test. In picture after picture he describes the most bizarre, demented, and degrading sexual scenes. Finally the psychologist throws down the cards in disgust and exclaims, "My God, you've got a filthy mind!"

The guy responds, "Me? _You're _the one showing all those dirty pictures."


----------



## KenOC

I'm always amused by people who say, "I'd never live in California because of the earthquakes!" But from 1900 through 2016, for every person killed in an earthquake in the US, 5.7 people died in hurricanes and 2.9 died in tornados, both of which are largely lacking here in California.


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> I'm always amused by people who say, "I'd never live in California because of the earthquakes!" But from 1900 through 2016, for every person killed in an earthquake in the US, 5.7 people died in hurricanes and 2.9 died in tornados, both of which are largely lacking here in California.


And how many died in road accidents??????


----------



## KenOC

Dan Ante said:


> And how many died in road accidents??????


In the US, traffic fatalities peaked at 29.357 per 100,000 population in 1937. They have been dropping mostly ever since, currently (2016) 11.59 per 100,000 population. The decline is laid to far better road design and channelization, improved signage, safer cars, and maybe better driving overall.

But my numbers were for natural disasters.


----------



## KenOC

Florence continues on its path, strengthening and growing bigger as well. No change in direction. All models have it hitting the Carolinas on Thursday night with winds of 140-150 mph (225-240 kph) and a WHOLE lot of rain on land already saturated.


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> In the US, traffic fatalities peaked at 29.357 per 100,000 population in 1937. They have been dropping mostly ever since, currently (2016) 11.59 per 100,000 population. The decline is laid to far better road design and channelization, improved signage, safer cars, and maybe better driving overall.
> 
> But my numbers were for natural disasters.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12057997

We are so far behind.


----------



## joen_cph

We´ve got less than 4 fatalities per 100,000 annually here in Denmark. 183 fatalities in 2017, from a population of 5.7 million. Our less extreme weather & natural conditions may play a minor role in that too.


----------



## KenOC

joen_cph said:


> We´ve got less than 4 fatalities per 100,000 annually here in Denmark. 183 fatalities in 2017, from a population of 5.7 million. Our less extreme weather & natural conditions may play a minor role in that too.


Norway has 2.2 traffic fatalities annually per 100,000 population. Libya has 73.4!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate


----------



## joen_cph

KenOC said:


> Norway has 2.2 traffic fatalities annually per 100,000 population. Libya has 73.4!


Interesting. The Norwegians are usually in a class of their own ... as regards Libya, it seems one has to think twice before leaving one´s house ...


----------



## Pyotr

KenOC said:


> I'm always amused by people who say, "I'd never live in California because of the earthquakes!" But from 1900 through 2016, for every person killed in an earthquake in the US, 5.7 people died in hurricanes and 2.9 died in tornados, both of which are largely lacking here in California.


The difference is that hurricanes give you plenty of warning, earthquakes don't. if you live in the continental U.S., you have to be pretty stupid to get killed by a hurricane, assuming you have the option of getting in your car and driving several hours (if you live on an island, then your evacuation options may be limited).

And if you live outside "Tornado Alley" (from North Texas to Canada) your chances of getting caught by a violent tornadoes-those rated EF4 or EF5 - are pretty slim. If you live in the eastern U.S., anywhere east of the Appalachian Mountains (Georgia to Maine), it's even slimmer.


----------



## Dan Ante

Pyotr said:


> The difference is that hurricanes give you plenty of warning, earthquakes don't.


You are spot on there, we get a few in NZ but my sympathies go to the people of Japan it seems to one thing after another.


----------



## KenOC

Today Florence's hurricane-force windfield doubled in width and it intensified to a Cat 4 storm. The forecast has it approaching Cat 5 before landfall Thursday night with sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph). Storm surges of up to ten feet are expected on the coastal plain, and rainfall amounts locally of two feet or more are forecast.

North and South Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland have all declared states of emergency. There are multiple evacuation orders. The governor of South Carolina has ordered the full evacuation of all of the state's eight ocean-facing counties.

Historically, the last hurricane of this magnitude to hit the East Coast north of Florida was Hugo in 1990. At the time it was the most damaging storm ever to hit the US; even its name "Hugo" was retired from the hurricane namelist. Prior to Hugo, the most recent such storm was in 1898.

I think I'll stay where I am and enjoy a piña colada by the pool while awaiting the earthquake. (BTW California has had 358 earthquake deaths in the last 100 years, about 3.6 deaths in an average year. I suspect more people perish from getting their lips caught in refrigerator doors.)


----------



## Ingélou

Sorry to hear about all the disruption in Florida and other US states, and keeping my fingers crossed.

I've just been on to Google and it seems to say that a huge earthquake in California is overdue, since January this year. 

Hope they've got it all wrong.


----------



## atsizat

My city ( Izmit)
as of 00:15 am

According to Turkish Met Office: 17*C

According to Google: 14*C


Edit:

The low was 15.6*C today. It must be the lowest temp recorded since the mid June.


----------



## Dan Ante

*@ KEN.* The TV said over a million people have been evacuated is this going to be the norm now?
If I may just go off topic for little post:
We have many small quakes in NZ but the two that stick in my mind were the 1931 Napier Quake killed 256 and of course the 2011 CC 185 killed 2000 injured. There have been others since plus after shocks. If only they could foresee these things. I have been in a few quakes but only minor ones where no one was killed, it is not a nice feeling the first was when I was in a caravan the whole thing shook and danced around I thought it was some idiots trying to tip it over.


----------



## KenOC

Just catching up...

First, a HUGE earthquake in California has been overdue as long as I've been alive. Note that California earthquakes tend to have very localized loci of destruction. In a recent big shaker in San Francisco, the one that damaged the Bay Bridge, TV showed the same collapsed house in the Mission District over and over, because other damage was less visible. Wood frame houses do quite well in earthquakes -- most of the damage from the big 1906 SF earthquake was caused by the fire.

Second, I believe the million-person figure for evacuations applies only to the coastal counties of South Carolina. There are other evacuations in North Carolina and Virginia, affecting fewer people I think.


----------



## KenOC

Nothing much has changed with Florence over the past three days. Same track, same intensity forecasts. The headlines scream, “Florence barreling toward coast!” But of course it’s not “barreling;” it’s gliding smoothly across the surface of the sea on its predetermined course, proceeding with dignity and a certain grandeur. Copywriters please note!

Most east-west highways in the Carolinas have now been converted to one-way, westbound only. No big traffic jams yet; all seems to be going well.

But people are wondering how far west they should go. Florence may well stall after coming ashore, with very wet results. People are muttering darkly about three feet or more of rain, wet enough to get your socks soaked right up to the rooftops.


----------



## KenOC

Dan Ante said:


> *@ KEN.* The TV said over a million people have been evacuated is this going to be the norm now?
> If I may just go off topic for little post:
> We have many small quakes in NZ but the two that stick in my mind were the 1931 Napier Quake killed 256 and of course the 2011 CC 185 killed 2000 injured. There have been others since plus after shocks. If only they could foresee these things. I have been in a few quakes but only minor ones where no one was killed, it is not a nice feeling the first was when I was in a caravan the whole thing shook and danced around I thought it was some idiots trying to tip it over.


No, I don't think there is anything unusual about the current hurricane season in the US. Maybe the reaction is more pronounced due to political posturing?

Yes, the 2011 New Zealand Christchurch earthquake was a nasty one with a lot of deaths. Most occurred in the collapsed CTV building, which was modern but which a later enquiry judged should not have been approved. Many of the other buildings involved had already been weakened in a prior 2010 quake.

Rim of fire and all that. The price of paradise?


----------



## Pyotr

KenOC said:


> …………………...
> I think I'll stay where I am and enjoy a piña colada by the pool while awaiting the earthquake. (BTW California has had 358 earthquake deaths in the last 100 years, about 3.6 deaths in an average year. I suspect more people perish from getting their lips caught in refrigerator doors.)


Make sure you are wearing your smoke mask.


----------



## KenOC

Pyotr said:


> Make sure you are wearing your smoke mask.


Sometimes it's difficult to judge scale. The fires are 600 miles or more north of us.


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> No, I don't think there is anything unusual about the current hurricane season in the US. Maybe the reaction is more pronounced due to political posturing?


Are looters shot on sight, with all those homes vacant it will be a temptation to the scum bags.


----------



## KenOC

Dan Ante said:


> Are looters shot on sight, with all those homes vacant it will be a temptation to the scum bags.


In these situations there are always looters. Every time. I don't believe they're shot on sight, though perhaps that's an excess of kindness.


----------



## KenOC

Update on Florence: The "'storm of a lifetime", the "nightmare hurricane", is no longer a major hurricane. How quickly the news sources forget other hurricanes, such as Katrina, which was stronger than Florence and which destroyed a major city so thoroughly that rebuilding it elsewhere was considered.

In any event, no major changes except for reduced wind speeds. The wind field is quite large and there's enough water to make everybody happy (or not). Looks like the big news will be the flooding.


----------



## Pyotr

Very unfortunate. Predictions are that it will stall once it hits land, like that hurricane did with Houston, and dump huge amounts of rain, up to 2 feet in some areas. That along with 10 feet of surge in some areas. The flooding will be biblical.


----------



## Luchesi

Pyotr said:


> Very unfortunate. Predictions are that it will stall once it hits land, like that hurricane did with Houston, and dump huge amounts of rain, up to 2 feet in some areas. That along with 10 feet of surge in some areas. The flooding will be biblical.


It's interesting that the models say the mass of rain will head up to Western New York and then gain energy there and then pour down on a path to Maine and beyond. It's interesting, we'll see.. This is why human forecasters can't do this. Experience with 10 storms of this same type and these synoptic conditions would be required.

The runs might be wrong too, but they give a very objective picture without any 'opinion' involved. It was desperately needed back when computers became powerful enough.


----------



## KenOC

Florence is still several hours from landfall, but this live video stream gives some idea of conditions along the coast already.

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5834436099001/?#sp=show-clips


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## Larkenfield

Wishing everyone safe passage who is in the path of storm Florence! My wish is that it will not be as severe as anticipated. Be safe.


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## Dan Ante

Pyotr said:


> Very unfortunate. Predictions are that it will stall once it hits land, like that hurricane did with Houston, and dump huge amounts of rain, up to 2 feet in some areas. That along with 10 feet of surge in some areas. The flooding will be biblical.


Noah's Ark has a ring of truth in it, but they didn't blame it on man made global warming.


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## KenOC

Pyotr said:


> Very unfortunate. Predictions are that it will stall once it hits land, like that hurricane did with Houston, and dump huge amounts of rain, up to 2 feet in some areas. That along with 10 feet of surge in some areas. The flooding will be biblical.


As of the latest (5:00 PM Eastern) it looks like Florence may indeed be stalling just offshore, or at least proceeding with glacial speed. Sustained winds are 100 mph and expected to stay at the level for almost 24 hours! Storm surges are already pushing water up onto the land, and the rain...the rain...


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## senza sordino

KenOC said:


> Update on Florence: The "'storm of a lifetime", the "nightmare hurricane", is no longer a major hurricane. How quickly the news sources forget other hurricanes, such as Katrina, which was stronger than Florence and which destroyed a major city so thoroughly that rebuilding it elsewhere was considered.
> 
> In any event, no major changes except for reduced wind speeds. The wind field is quite large and there's enough water to make everybody happy (or not). Looks like the big news will be the flooding.


I've been watching this hurricane. I have an app on my ipad called  Living Earth A real time composite photograph of the Earth and it's weather. And it tracks named storms. There are at least two other storms right behind Florence.

Ken, in the map you posted, what does H, S and D stand for? It's tracking the eye, but I don't know what the letters stand for.


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## Luchesi

senza sordino said:


> I've been watching this hurricane. I have an app on my ipad called  Living Earth A real time composite photograph of the Earth and it's weather. And it tracks named storms. There are at least two other storms right behind Florence.
> 
> Ken, in the map you posted, what does H, S and D stand for? It's tracking the eye, but I don't know what the letters stand for.


hurricane, tropical storm, tropical depression - unless the names have been changed. We don't get even tropical depressions here where I live.


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## senza sordino

Luchesi said:


> hurricane, tropical storm, tropical depression - unless the names have been changed. We don't get even tropical depressions here where I live.


Of course, that makes sense. Thanks for the education.


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## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> hurricane, tropical storm, tropical depression - unless the names have been changed. We don't get even tropical depressions here where I live.


For the past few days, Florence has been an "M" which means major hurricane, category 3 or better.


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## Pyotr

There will always be a few "hangers on" who insist on staying put. We'll be seeing them on top of their roofs waving for the helicopter. Never fails!


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## KenOC

I was looking back on the NOAA hurricane site and noted that five days ago, when Florence was still way out in the mid-Atlantic, it was forecast to hit the Carolina coast in five days. That forecast never changed. Good job, people! :clap:

Particularly impressive since most storms on that track curl north after passing Bermuda and miss the mainland entirely. Some models at the time had Florence doing just that.


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## KenOC

Pyotr said:


> There will always be a few "hangers on" who insist on staying put. We'll be seeing them on top of their roofs waving for the helicopter. Never fails!


In one recent hurricane, a hanger-on refused to evacuate. He was sure God would save him. As you suggest, he ended up on his rooftop. A rescue boat came by, but he called out, "God will save me!" Later a helicopter came. Again, he called out, "God will save me!"

But his house floated away and sank, and he drowned. Arriving in Heaven he was quite indignant. He said, "I had faith that God would save me, and I drowned anyway. What kind of treatment is that?"

St. Peter looked carefully in his big book: "It says here that God sent you a boat, and then He even sent a helicopter, but you refused all help. Sounds to me like you've got a personal problem!"


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## senza sordino

Cat 5 Typhoon Mangkhut strikes the Philippines


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## KenOC

Mangkhut -- with 255 kph (160 mph) wind gusts. Now THERE'S a storm! After crossing the Philippines, it will hit China (maybe Hong Kong) and preparations are underway. This article says that the Philippines are hit by an average of 20 typhoons and storms each year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...pines/ar-BBNgo7L?li=BBnbcA1&OCID=ansmsnnews11


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## Pyotr

KenOC said:


> I was looking back on the NOAA hurricane site and noted that five days ago, when Florence was still way out in the mid-Atlantic, it was forecast to hit the Carolina coast in five days. That forecast never changed. Good job, people! :clap:
> 
> Particularly impressive since most storms on that track curl north after passing Bermuda and miss the mainland entirely. Some models at the time had Florence doing just that.


I agree with that, for the most part. They did predict the path of the storm quite accurately. But they made two mistakes on purpose to, IMO, help their own agenda - to boost tv ratings, 
One, they predicted that the eye would hit land on Wednesday evening, it didn't get there until 7am this morning, Friday. And two, they predicted that it would be a cat four at that time, it was "only" a one, which is a big difference. A category four has speeds of 130-156 mph; a category one 74-95 mph. 
They did the first so people would tune in earlier, and the second to embellish the situation, which makes it more news worthy. 
They had a weatherman in Philadelphia who got railroaded out of town because he would continually predict snowfalls , that the other networks didn't - and never happened. He reasons were obvious. Snowstorms mean big tv ratings for the networks.
I notice that the weather channel has two dozen meteorologists working on this storm, most of them on site. It would be a damn shame if they all got swept out to sea.


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## KenOC

Well...the NOAA site I've been following is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is obviously not commercial and has no TV stations. It correctly forecast the extent of strengthening, although at one point they forecasted a brief Cat-5 strength before a pre-strike weakening. That didn't happen, and the near-shore weakening was more than anticipated. Overall, though, I think they did pretty well.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


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## Luchesi

Pyotr said:


> I agree with that, for the most part. They did predict the path of the storm quite accurately. But they made two mistakes on purpose to, IMO, help their own agenda - to boost tv ratings,
> One, they predicted that the eye would hit land on Wednesday evening, it didn't get there until 7am this morning, Friday. And two, they predicted that it would be a cat four at that time, it was "only" a one, which is a big difference. A category four has speeds of 130-156 mph; a category one 74-95 mph.
> They did the first so people would tune in earlier, and the second to embellish the situation, which makes it more news worthy.
> They had a weatherman in Philadelphia who got railroaded out of town because he would continually predict snowfalls , that the other networks didn't - and never happened. He reasons were obvious. Snowstorms mean big tv ratings for the networks.
> I notice that the weather channel has two dozen meteorologists working on this storm, most of them on site. It would be a damn shame if they all got swept out to sea.


I've seen some very intelligent people (physicists) take the data that's available to everyone and try to make a snow forecast. Everyone should try it. The obvious ones are snow, thunderstorms, high wind, hail, record cold and the onset of clearing weather.


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## joen_cph

"_So dramatic! Dude from the weather channel bracing for his life, as 2 dudes just stroll past_. "






He seems to have rehearsed certain leg and body movements that picture stormy winds.


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## KenOC

joen_cph said:


> "_So dramatic! Dude from the weather channel bracing for his life, as 2 dudes just stroll past_."


This is true hurricane hilarity. It reminds me of a couple of years ago on our local TV. Rain was expected so the camera crews were sent out go get pictures of the deluge. However, there were only sprinkles. One crew put their TV camera at ant's-eye level in a rain gutter to make the pitiful trickle of moisture look like a raging river. It didn't work. :lol:


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## Kiki

KenOC said:


> Mangkhut -- with 255 kph (160 mph) wind gusts. Now THERE'S a storm! After crossing the Philippines, it will hit China (maybe Hong Kong) and preparations are underway. This article says that the Philippines are hit by an average of 20 typhoons and storms each year.
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...pines/ar-BBNgo7L?li=BBnbcA1&OCID=ansmsnnews11







This was what happened in HK earlier today. Macau was hit even worse. HK is protected geographically by the continent, and being a city, the damage is often much less severe than in the Philippines which is directly exposed to the super typhoon. We are lucky here. My thoughts are with those who have suffered. The wind has subsided now. There will be a few days of heavy rain as an aftermath, and then usually followed by unbearable hot and humid weather.


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## atsizat

I am jealous of Canadian Met Office. Even a village with 1.000 population publishes the long term averages. Good for Canada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Simpson

In Turkey, only provincial capitals publish the long term official averages that really sucks. I dont understand why they dont publish the long term averages of other districts of the provinces in the country. I am angry with Turkish Met Office. They have weather stations in every districts of the provinces but they do not publish the long term averages. They just publish daily lows and highs.

Çaldıran, which is a district of Van Province, is where the lowest official temperature in the country was recorded in January 1990 with -46.4*C. But its long term official averages are not published because it is not a provincial capital. However, the lowest temp recorded in the provincial capital of Van Province was only -28.7*C. A great difference! So the provincial capital of Van Province do not really represent of the climate of Van Province.

The provincial capital in the country that has coldest official average lows in winter is Ardahan with an average low of -17*C in January and its all time record low is -39.8*C but there is a higher elevated district called Göle in Ardahan Province, which is always having colder official lows at night than the provincial capital throughout the year, which is also normal since the district is higher elevated than the provincial capital. So provincial capitals do not represent the climate of the entire provinces. Because of that, I am angry with Turkish Met Office. I even called the met office asking why they do not publish the long term averages of other districts of the provinces and they said they just don't.

And unofficial weather websites such as climate.data.org are unrealiable sources which I dont take seriously. I stick to official averages. There was a foreign troll on a weather site I used to spend time who was insistent on putting ''climate.data.org''' averages for a district in Turkey in wikipedia, which is an unofficial and unrealiable weather site. He was putting it in wikipedia and I was removing it from wikipedia. He kept putting it on wikipedia just to **** me off. I gave up the forum for that reason.


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## Tristan

The weather has been stunningly good here lately. Today was maybe the clearest day all summer.

I'll shut up now.


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## Dan Ante

We have very meaningful forecasts eg Temp now 12.4 degC feels like 12.6 degC.


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## KenOC

Tristan said:


> The weather has been stunningly good here lately. Today was maybe the clearest day all summer.


Yes, down here we've been running in the mid-80s (~30C) every day, high 60s to low 70s at night. Not bad!


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## Ingélou

Very changeable weather in seaside Norfolk at present - windy & rainy last night - blew the pears off our neighbour's tree - cold this morning - golden and temperate now.


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## atsizat

26.4°C at 53% @3:38 pm

I am still sweating. It is still hot.


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## joen_cph

Not much to report from here, it´s mildly changeable weather.

But parts of Denmark had an earth-quake of some force - 3.5 on the Richter scale, it was in Jutland. 

The effects were limited though; television news focused on pictures of a villa chimney, that had gotten a small crack.


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## joen_cph

A nice, half-circle rainbow appeared for a short while at the Nørreport Station in central Copenhagen today.

A good deal of people stopped and looked up, as a short break from their daily routines.


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## elgar's ghost

I've welcomed the recent rain and drop in temperature - it keeps the bloody wasps away for a start.


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## Luchesi

elgars ghost said:


> I've welcomed the recent rain and drop in temperature - it keeps the bloody wasps away for a start.


When does winter start for you? and when does it end?


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## elgar's ghost

Well, according to many tourists from warmer climes our winter lasts for most of the year ha ha. Don't think that was the case this year, though - our summer had an extended period of hot, sunny weather for a change. 

Roughly speaking, winter here tends to start in November and end in February but because our winters can be relatively mild and wet there's often little to distinguish any time between late autumn and early spring. However, because the British Isles stretch from near the French coast up to the same latitude as Southern Norway and Sweden there are often regional fluctuations in conditions and temperature.


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## KenOC

Just to note: Today is the autumn equinox -- for many, the end of summer and the official start of fall. My wife seems fixated on which day each season starts and ends! Of course, it kinda depends on where you are.

Apology: For our antipodean friends, it's the end of winter and the start of spring...


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## Luchesi

I went outside tonight after days of cloudiness and noticed some bright planets, so I went in and looked them up. 

Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Pluto and Mars in that order across a quarter of the sky. Behind them to the east, Neptune, our sister galaxy Andromeda and then the Moon rising.


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## elgar's ghost

Luchesi said:


> I went outside tonight after days of cloudiness and noticed some bright planets, so I went in and looked them up.
> 
> Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Pluto and Mars in that order across a quarter of the sky. Behind them to the east, Neptune, our sister galaxy Andromeda and then the Moon rising.


Pluto? Really? Great telescope or awesome eyesight.


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## Luchesi

elgars ghost said:


> Pluto? Really? Great telescope or awesome eyesight.


I asked Clyde Tombaugh if Pluto could be seen with a good amateur telescope and he said no he didn't think so.

People ask me in what part of the sky Pluto is. It's been in Sagittarius since 2006 and it will move slowly out of Sagittarius by 2023. It's halfway between Saturn and Mars right now.

In 2009 Pluto was closest in our sky to the center of our galaxy. Spooky


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## atsizat

This September, the coldest officially recorded temp so far in the country is -3*C, which is in a high elevated town in Northeastern Turkey ( The elevation of the town is 2038 metres).

My city is seaside and warm . The temp couldn't drop below +14*C so far but forecast low is +12*C for the following morning.


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## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> This September, the coldest officially recorded temp so far in the country is -3*C, which is in a high elevated town in Northeastern Turkey ( The elevation of the town is 2038 metres).
> 
> My city is seaside and warm . The temp couldn't drop below +14*C so far but forecast low is +12*C for the following morning.


People say don't worry about climate change, because there's 15°C swings in temperature every day.


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## Luchesi

elgars ghost said:


> Well, according to many tourists from warmer climes our winter lasts for most of the year ha ha. Don't think that was the case this year, though - our summer had an extended period of hot, sunny weather for a change.
> 
> Roughly speaking, winter here tends to start in November and end in February but because our winters can be relatively mild and wet there's often little to distinguish any time between late autumn and early spring. However, because the British Isles stretch from near the French coast up to the same latitude as Southern Norway and Sweden there are often regional fluctuations in conditions and temperature.


Thanks, yes. There were more than the normal number of blocking circulations this year for your region. The warmer the blocks are the stronger they are and the more resistant they are to being pushed to the east.


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## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> People say don't worry about climate change, because there's 15°C swings in temperature every day.


Climate chance is yearly average temp difference, not daily temp difference, though 

I think average temps increased. The last winter was far above average. But this summer including september was cooler than the last summer so I believe this winter won't be as bad as the last winter. I hope so.


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## Dan Ante

No don't worry about it, it has been going on for for yonks and will probably wipe most of us out but a few will survive and there will be a new order eventually.


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## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> Climate chance is yearly average temp difference, not daily temp difference, though
> 
> I think average temps increased. The last winter was far above average. But this summer including september was cooler than the last summer so I believe this winter won't be as bad as the last winter. I hope so.


It's complicated because of the balances, but climate change is the change in energy content of the systems which bring daily weather and across the seasons. The energy going up or down will change the intensities and shift the weather systems.

As the planet retains energy due to insufficient outflow the systems, especially winter weather systems, will bring more intense weather.

Since the surface temperature changes at the latitudes where most people live have been so small, many people will be complacent, but it's not mainly about temperature changes. It's initially about intensifying weather patterns, breaking long-held records and damaging events which are somewhat more severe. Much later there will be many more consequences if projections are correct.


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## atsizat

Where I live, 14.6°C and rainy as of 4:27 pm. The low was 12.3°C in the morning.


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## Sun Junqing

Weather here in Shanghai is changing...not very comfortable


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## KenOC

Sun Junqing said:


> Weather here in Shanghai is changing...not very comfortable


When I lived in Hong Kong, down south a bit, this was the start of the season when we had to run dehumidifiers all day -- and empty their water trays often. We used tube heaters in the closets to prevent belts and shoes from rotting away with mold. Is that the situation in Shanghai?


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## Kiki

KenOC said:


> Sun Junqing said:
> 
> 
> 
> Weather here in Shanghai is changing...not very comfortable
> 
> 
> 
> When I lived in Hong Kong, down south a bit, this was the start of the season when we had to run dehumidifiers all day -- and empty their water trays often. We used tube heaters in the closets to prevent belts and shoes from rotting away with mold. Is that the situation in Shanghai?
Click to expand...

It's still the same in HK nowadays. Even if one has the humidifier/air-cond switched on throughout the year, it takes only one evening at the beginning of summer with the windows open for all the molds to suddenly appear on all the walls! Quite a sight. But wait till you discover the molds on your LPs and CDs. That takes the devastation to a completely different level. I know, it's my fault, since I used clay paint on the walls. If I had used one of those chemical/poison-rich paints, I wouldn't have this problem.

The molds are innocent.

Long live the molds!

I suppose Shanghai is less humid and should it be cooling down now?


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## atsizat

Why does wikipedia accept unofficial climate websites as a source?

I used to type on an English weather forum. There was a foreign troll who put climate data. org averages on wikipedia for a turkish town I used to talk about on the forum. I delete the unofficial source from wikipedia and he keeps adding the unofficial source back to wikipedia. Wikipedia banned me for deleting his official climate source from wikipedia for the place.

Climate. data. org is an unofficial and unreliable source and it suggests incorrect averages for the place. I am the one being Turkish and I know the place. And that foreign troll keeps putting the stupid climate. data. org averages on wikipedia and wikipedia accepts the foreign troll's unofficial source and ban me from wikipedia for deleting his unofficial climate source.

Turkish Met Office publishes the Long term official averages of the ''provincial capitals'' only but it publishes daily lows and highs for every weather stations so I know how cold that place is. I've also been to the town. And wikipedia bans me for deleting his unofficial weather source called climate. data. org from wikipedia.

If a place's long term official averages are not avaible, LEAVE IT ALONE!

Göle is a district of Ardahan Provice, which is always having colder official lows and highs than the provincial capital of Ardahan continuously throughout the year. Since Ardahan is the one being provincial capital, its averages ( official) are published.

Ardahan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ardahan

Göle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Göle

Göle is always having colder official lows and highs than the provincial capital of Ardahan continuously throughout the year and the elevation of Göle is also higher but it looks warmer on wikipedia because the source used for Göle is an unofficial weather website while the source used for Ardahan is offical.


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## KenOC

The evening of October 3 we are suddenly hit with a small but vigorous shower as a weather front moves through. This is the first rain of our rain year, which runs from October 1 through September 30. I hope it is a portent of a wet winter! But not _too _wet, of course.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> The evening of October 3 we are suddenly hit with a small but vigorous shower as a weather front moves through. This is the first rain of our rain year, which runs from October 1 through September 30. I hope it is a portent of a wet winter! But not _too _wet, of course.


Yes, this is the first seasonal changeover for the end of 2018. It reminds me of the freshwater lake I grew up on - as it turns over. A weather hobbyist can look at the current 18,000 foot level and they know immediately that this is the end of the summer, even for the southwestern states. This is what is so endlessly fascinating about synoptic meteorology. It always stays the same year after year, orbit after orbit, but it's always changing within those expected 2 month and geographical limits. 
How does it work? How does it all hold together, east to west? How does it remain predictable?

Psychologists visited our lab on a project and they asked how we thought about humans FEELING the coming changes early in each season? It's very primal? 
My boss later said to me he didn't like that in a formal briefing. I just smiled vaguely to reaffirm him - I didn't want to get into a row about it.. I learned that he wasn't a fan of psychology.. He has a difficult role with visiting VIPs and one of the physicists might've said something. Always interesting, the different types of highly competent people in a small lab like this.


----------



## Ingélou

We've been having some golden autumn weather in seaside Norfolk - or what is called an 'Indian Summer'. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer


----------



## KenOC

Ingélou said:


> We've been having some golden autumn weather in seaside Norfolk - or what is called an 'Indian Summer'.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer


I always thought "Indian Summer" was an Americanism - guess not! Where I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, we always called it an Indian Summer when the warm golden days of late summer stayed around for an unusually long time and the rains were delayed.

I'm sure there were other times when the chill winds came early and the weather deteriorated with unseasonable haste. But I don't think there was a name for that. Some psychology at work there, probably.


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## Larkenfield

I think of Indian Summer as the unexpected return of the heat after the coolness of the fall has set in... the summer heat in the fall, sometimes with a feeling of nostalgia. It's also a marvelous song musicians like to sing and improvise on because of its amazing chord changes and memorable lyrics. The great vocal arrangement by Nelson Riddle:






Incidentally, Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys modeled much of his vocal writing and harmonies after the Four Freshmen, and the Beatles modeled after the Beach Boys.


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## Luchesi

Indian Summer weather used to be the prairie fires deliberately set by Native American tribes. Also involved Indian deceptiveness and trust issues (not the white man lol) so that an Indian Summer was a counterfeit copy of the real thing, real summer. Not to be trusted.

Indian Summer events have increased in number over the past decade or so in the storm tracks of the Eastern US and the UK due to the looked-for slight instability expected in AGW theory. It would depend upon what normal ‘stability’ is, over many years, because Indian Summers are just lags in the progression of waves embedded in the planetary waves. I don’t know what it’s called in the springtime. Probably local names have been thought up.


----------



## bravenewworld

Well, it's cool and raining here in Sydney: and what a glorious thing that is! Most storm-fronts that hit us here are coastal rains only - but this is one moving across New South Wales from the south west (presumably originating in the Great Southern Ocean). That's wonderful because it means the driest parts of NSW have received the best rain, and we've been having a terrible drought (100% of the state was declared drought-ridden in August).









This was the rain chart of our brown and pleasant land a day or two ago. Since then the rain has moved to cover Sydney, which is glorious because my front lawn is absolutely parched (and I have a drought-tolerant native grass!). Even though I was stranded today in Sydney's satellite city of Parramatta with no umbrella and drenching rain, I appreciated the wet weather as only Australians (and other citizens of parched countries) can.

Unfortunately, the rain was not uniform, so while some farmers had 100 mm fall on their properties, others only got 2 or 3 mm. Still, while this weather is nowhere near enough to break the drought, it's a welcome relief after our winter rains failed.


----------



## Luchesi

bravenewworld said:


> Well, it's cool and raining here in Sydney: and what a glorious thing that is! Most storm-fronts that hit us here are coastal rains only - but this is one moving across New South Wales from the south west (presumably originating in the Great Southern Ocean). That's wonderful because it means the driest parts of NSW have received the best rain, and we've been having a terrible drought (100% of the state was declared drought-ridden in August).
> 
> View attachment 108672
> 
> 
> This was the rain chart of our brown and pleasant land a day or two ago. Since then the rain has moved to cover Sydney, which is glorious because my front lawn is absolutely parched (and I have a drought-tolerant native grass!). Even though I was stranded today in Sydney's satellite city of Parramatta with no umbrella and drenching rain, I appreciated the wet weather as only Australians (and other citizens of parched countries) can.
> 
> Unfortunately, the rain was not uniform, so while some farmers had 100 mm fall on their properties, others only got 2 or 3 mm. Still, while this weather is nowhere near enough to break the drought, it's a welcome relief after our winter rains failed.


I'm curious. How much do Australians know (or care) about the geography of the US? When I was at Learmonth WA they were curious.


----------



## Ingélou

KenOC said:


> I always thought "Indian Summer" was an Americanism - guess not! Where I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, we always called it an Indian Summer when the warm golden days of late summer stayed around for an unusually long time and the rains were delayed.
> 
> I'm sure there were other times when the chill winds came early and the weather deteriorated with unseasonable haste. But I don't think there was a name for that. Some psychology at work there, probably.


The term is used in the UK quite a lot, but as the Raj in India is still a cultural fascination here, I only realised a few years ago that it was an American term and did not hail from the subcontinent - silly of me, I know.


----------



## Luchesi

................................


----------



## bravenewworld

Luchesi said:


> I'm curious. How much do Australians know (or care) about the geography of the US? When I was at Learmonth WA they were curious.


Hmm. Even though Australia was part of the British Empire, since World War II we've received most of our cultural 'cues' from the USA. Most of our television, nearly all of our popular music and much of the literature we read (when we do read, that is: just like in the US, most people don't read very often) comes from America now. And so, while it irritates me, it doesn't surprise me when I hear young people by default associate Christmas with snowmen, even though a 40 degree C day is almost infinitely more likely.

This American cultural dominance has the side-effect of making America, to many young people, seem like a land of vast size and commensurate opportunity. So there is a fascination with all things American over here (although I think less so than the 80s and 90s). But interest in geography? As with Christmas' association with snowmen, I think many people here, especially young people, know more about American geography than Australian. My younger sister can tell me all about Kentucky bluegrass country but I would wager she has never heard of mulga shrublands. In saying that, I don't think the knowledge of American geography is all that great: we have a strain of anti-intellectualism in Australian culture which means such learning tends to be somewhat frowned upon. All the same, I can understand why there was such curiosity at Learmonth (I've never been in that part of the country myself, however! And Western Australians are known for being quite different to East Coast people like me).

However, I for one am very interested in international geography, as are other Australians I know. I found Jared Diamond's book _Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed_ gave a fascinating account of South-Western American Indigenous societies, as well as Montana's environment, to the extent that I would very much like to go to those places. And the California thread here on the TC Community Forum has really opened my eyes to the diversity of California.


----------



## KenOC

Two days ago Michael was a tropical depression southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Now it's a Cat 3 hurricane, still strengthening, and scheduled to hit Florida in less than 24 hours. And after crossing Florida, it will continue northeast across North and South Carolina, dropping heavy rains (several inches) on ground still saturated from their own recent hurricane Florence. They haven't even recovered from the flooding from that one! Some people get all the (bad) luck.










*Added*: Hurricane Michael is now forecast to become a Cat 4 storm (130 mph sustained winds) by landfall tomorrow. This could be a nasty one.

*Added again*: That was quick! Michael is now Cat 4: "maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts." Further strengthening is still possible. Storm surges of up to 13 feet are forecast. I'd head inland!


----------



## KenOC

The eyewall of Hurricane Michael is just now coming ashore in Florida. Sustained winds have increased to 150 mph/240 kph. This is a big one.


----------



## KenOC

Michael, still a tropical storm, is up in the Carolinas. But back in Florida, a lot of people have some picking up to do.


----------



## LezLee

Ingélou said:


> The term is used in the UK quite a lot, but as the Raj in India is still a cultural fascination here, I only realised a few years ago that it was an American term and did not hail from the subcontinent - silly of me, I know.


I had no idea at all it might be an Americanism! TC is very educational .


----------



## Luchesi

Taggart said:


> Britons are well known for talking about the weather.
> 
> Here's a thread for everybody, all over the world, to join in and talk about the weather where they are.


It all started in the UK.
These are quite interesting ideas to weather hobbyists of today, because we know the details of the mechanisms they were observing and categorizing over a long time.

"A rapid rise of the barometer indicates unsettled weather. A slow rise, or steadiness, with dryness, shows fair weather. 
A considerable and rapid fall is a sign of stormy weather and rain. Alternate rising and sinking show very unsettled weather. 
The greatest depressions of the barometer are with gales from the S.E., Southward, or S.W.; the greatest elevations, with winds from the N.W., Northward, or N.E., or when calm. 
Although the barometer generally falls with a Southerly, and rises with a Northerly wind, the contrary sometimes occurs; in which cases the Southerly wind is dry and the weather fine; or the Northerly wind is wet and violent.[15] 
When the barometer sinks considerably, high wind, rain, or snow will follow: the wind will be from the Northward if the thermometer is low (for the season) from the Southward if the thermometer is high. 
Sudden falls of the barometer, with a Westerly wind, are sometimes followed by violent storms from N.W. or North. 
If a gale sets in from the Eastward or S.E., and the wind veers by the South, the barometer will continue falling until the wind becomes S.W., when a comparative lull may occur; after which the gale will be renewed; and the shifting of the wind towards the N.W. will be indicated by a fall of the thermometer as well as a rise of the barometer. 
Three things appear to affect the mercury in a barometer: 
1. The direction of the wind the North-east wind tending to raise it most the South-west to lower it the most, and wind from points of the compass between them proportionally as they are nearer one or the other extreme point. 
N.E. and S.W. may therefore be called the wind's extreme bearings (rather than poles?) 
The range, or difference of height, of the mercury, due to change of direction only, from one of these bearings to the other (supposing strength or force, and moisture, to remain the same)[12] amounts in these latitudes to about half an inch (shown by the barometer as read off). 
2. The amount, taken by itself, of vapour, moisture, wet, rain, hail, or snow, in the wind or current of air (direction and strength remaining the same) seems to cause a change amounting, in an extreme case, to about half an inch. 
3. The strength or force alone of wind from any quarter (moisture and direction being unchanged) is preceded, or foretold, by a fall or rise, according as the strength will be greater or less, ranging, in an extreme case, to more than two inches."

This above is from; 
COMPILED BY REAR-ADMIRAL FITZROY, F.R.S.
THIRD EDITION.
(WITH ADDITIONS.)
LONDON:
PRINTED BY GEORGE E. EYRE AND WILLIAM SPOTTISWOODE,
PRINTERS TO THE QUEEN'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY.
FOR HER MAJESTY'S STATIONERY OFFICE.
AND SOLD BY
J. D. POTTER, Agent for the Admiralty Charts, 31, POULTRY,
AND 11, KING STREET, TOWER HILL.
1859.

While alluding to the use of barometers, I may remark, that if such weather-glasses were put in charge of the Coast-guard, at the principal stations round the coast, so placed as to allow any one passing by to look at them, they might be the means, not only of preventing ships from going to sea just before bad weather was coming on, but of preventing the great losses of life which take place every year on our coasts (particularly in the Orkney Islands and on the coasts of Scotland and Ireland), owing to fishing vessels and boats going to sea when bad weather is impending. No bad weather ever comes on our coasts without timely warning being given by the barometer. The oldest seaman are often deceived by the look of the weather, but there is no instance on record of very bad weather, such as would have involved loss of life to the extent we have heard of in several years, having come on without the barometer having given timely warning. By the very small expense of an establishment of barometers, so placed as to be accessible to any fishermen, boatmen, or others on the coasts, much loss of life, as well as loss of boats, and even shipping, might be prevented. "What state of the barometer indicates danger?-It varies in different climates according to the range. The range is small between the tropics, but very large in the higher latitudes. In our climate the range is usually about two inches. The barometer falling considerably below its average height is at once an indication that some considerable change is going to take place, and when it falls low, as for instance (in our climate) to near 29 inches, or below 29 inches, a gale is certain to follow. "Are the Committee to understand that you are of opinion that every ship ought to have a barometer on board?-I think that every ship ought to have either a barometer or sympiesometer, which is an efficient substitute for a barometer. "Does the barometer show a sudden change of wind as well as the coming on of bad weather? Supposing a gale of wind is blowing, and you are sailing with a fair wind, does the barometer show any change of wind?-Decidedly. "Supposing the wind was at West-north-west and it shifted suddenly to West-south-west, would the barometer indicate that?-It requires some practice to be able to say exactly what is likely to take place after a change in the barometer; but the principal point for a seaman is, that no violent wind will blow without the barometer giving warning. He may not know exactly from what quarter the wind will come, but no strong wind will come on without warning being given. "You recommend that at the Coast-guard stations there should be a barometer, by means of which people would know when a violent wind was coming on; but as it would not indicate the quarter from[5] which it was coming, would you have the merchant ship always remain in port till the barometer showed fine weather?-Being accustomed to the barometer on our coast, one could tell from what quarter the wind would probably come by the height of the barometer, taken in connexion with its previous height, and the state of the weather, and the strength of winds that had prevailed before. Taking the state of the barometer in connexion with the appearance of the weather one could make a satisfactory conclusion as to the quarter from which any violent wind would come. And the barometer, after very little practice, can be used by any man. There is no difficulty in using it sufficiently to know that danger is coming on; and if danger is coming on, a man refrains.


----------



## KenOC

How things change! Last night and most of today there was intermittent rain. We’re now well ahead of normal for the rain year (which, granted, is only two weeks old).

But Monday the Santa Ana winds will start blowing down from the high deserts again, the temps will rise and the humidity will drop. The forecast for mid-week is for fire weather! That’s more normal for SoCal this time of year.


----------



## joen_cph

A "balancing" cloud at the fiord of Aird Asaig, the Isle of Harris, Outer Hebrides, this July.


----------



## Luchesi

I forgot to add we don't use barometers or wind direction anymore to forecast weather. 

It's backwards now, we forecast pressure and wind direction from the well-known synoptic models when we have a reliable development and movement forecast. 

The people of the UK back then didn't yet have ideal (theoretical) models to help them.

added - I didn't mean computer models. Active weather systems only develop into a few structural shapes due to the recurring physics and so we have a textbook model for each of them. That way we've learned what type of weather will be found where inside the 3 dimensional shape. After that it's a matter of getting the reliable development and movement forecast from the various number-crunching computer models. This is probably more than anyone wants to know, sorry...


----------



## atsizat

In October 2018 so far, the lowest temperature officially recorded in Turkey was -8.2*C in a high elevated town. As for my city, the lowest temperature was only +12.3*C. Where I live is sea side so the climate is very mild and boring.

In late december of 2017, I went to that town and I stayed there for 3 days and during my stay there, the temperature dropped to -20*C. It was awesome. I am really a cold lover. I love the cold, unlike most of the people. However, there was no wind in the town, which was an advantange because I like the pure cold, by which I mean it being without wind.


----------



## LezLee

joen_cph said:


> A "balancing" cloud at the fiord of Aird Asaig, the Isle of Harris, Outer Hebrides, this July.
> 
> View attachment 108981


Saw our first eagle there nearly 40 years ago! Nice memory.


----------



## joen_cph

Nice. Did a night of wild camping just there, with tent and bicycle, before taking the ferry back to Skye from the Hebrides. An almost stormy evening and then a quiet morning afterwards, on the photo. Only a gravel road to the end of that tiny peninsula in the inner fiord, but some buildings on the way out there.


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## Totenfeier

7 degrees C and heavy rain. This also qualifies as my whinge for the day.


----------



## Luchesi

Totenfeier said:


> 7 degrees C and heavy rain. This also qualifies as my whinge for the day.


I think you're getting hurricane Willa. It flooded us in NM. Dangerous streets here. It will combine with the normal northern flow to form the first nor'easter of the season for those hardy folks in New England.


----------



## Totenfeier

Luchesi said:


> I think you're getting hurricane Willa. It flooded us in NM. Dangerous streets here. It will combine with the normal northern flow to form the first nor'easter of the season for those hardy folks in New England.


Yep, that's exactly it. Here where I am in NC, we've been brushed by Florence, Michael AND Willa over the last couple of weeks.


----------



## Luchesi

Totenfeier said:


> Yep, that's exactly it. Here where I am in NC, we've been brushed by Florence, Michael AND Willa over the last couple of weeks.


Yes, now that it's over it's interesting to think about the steering flow which was weak enough to allow Florence to come onshore, and then it was too strong for Micheal to go straight north into the Appalachians. And then it was too extensive to allow Willa to track west and then north of you.

This is normal for this planetary flow pattern to be weak -- and then strengthen in waves -- and then become extensive later on. But each time there was a storm beginning to move through. You can see why this doesn't happen most years.


----------



## atsizat

It looks as if this winter will be as warm as the last winter in Eurasia.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> It looks as if this winter will be as warm as the last winter in Eurasia.


It's probably a good bet. The polar vortex phenomena which seems to be an indirect result of the weakening of the north/south temperature gradient at 20,000 ft along with episodes of stratospheric warming due to planetary warming, has been hitting the Eastern US and the UK/Western Europe hard - because of the continental configurations. This means less cold air is available to advect down into the Western US and Eastern Europe.

But there's also the wave effect which messes with the averages. I mean, if in your data you end winter on the vernal equinox and then the very next week there's a large planetary wave dropping temperatures to well below average, the winter will be reported as significantly warmer. With the planet gaining energy the seasonal changeovers are being delayed against the sun's expected effect, so the winter ends on the calendar but the wave pattern is still too strong and remains a winter pattern.


----------



## atsizat

Verkhoyansk, Yakutia had a low of -30.3*C this morning. Damn


----------



## haydnguy

bravenewworld said:


> Hmm. Even though Australia was part of the British Empire, since World War II we've received most of our cultural 'cues' from the USA. Most of our television, nearly all of our popular music and much of the literature we read (when we do read, that is: just like in the US, most people don't read very often) comes from America now. And so, while it irritates me, it doesn't surprise me when I hear young people by default associate Christmas with snowmen, even though a 40 degree C day is almost infinitely more likely.
> 
> This American cultural dominance has the side-effect of making America, to many young people, seem like a land of vast size and commensurate opportunity. So there is a fascination with all things American over here (although I think less so than the 80s and 90s). But interest in geography? As with Christmas' association with snowmen, I think many people here, especially young people, know more about American geography than Australian. My younger sister can tell me all about Kentucky bluegrass country but I would wager she has never heard of mulga shrublands. In saying that, I don't think the knowledge of American geography is all that great: we have a strain of anti-intellectualism in Australian culture which means such learning tends to be somewhat frowned upon. All the same, I can understand why there was such curiosity at Learmonth (I've never been in that part of the country myself, however! And Western Australians are known for being quite different to East Coast people like me).
> 
> However, I for one am very interested in international geography, as are other Australians I know. I found Jared Diamond's book _Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed_ gave a fascinating account of South-Western American Indigenous societies, as well as Montana's environment, to the extent that I would very much like to go to those places. And the California thread here on the TC Community Forum has really opened my eyes to the diversity of California.


I'm American and when I first started on these classical forums a fellow mentioned Britney Spears. I believe he was from Brazil. I said, "You know about Britney Spears?" His reply was "of course". It never occurred to me that he might have heard of her since I didn't know any Brazilian popular singers.


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## Ingélou

It's been lovely weather in seaside Norfolk for the past few days - crisp but golden.


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## Dorsetmike

Ingélou said:


> It's been lovely weather in seaside Norfolk for the past few days - crisp but golden.


Same here in Sunny Bournemouth - until today - as Spike Milligan would say, it's the holes in the clouds that let the rain through, minor advantage, I won't have to refill the bird bath for a day or two.


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## KenOC

Today is our last day, at least for a while, in the 80s F. Then we drop into the shivering 70s. Winter is coming!


----------



## starthrower

KenOC said:


> Winter is coming!


To those of us in the north. Enjoy your friggin' palm trees this January!


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## KenOC

starthrower said:


> To those of us in the north. Enjoy your friggin' palm trees this January!


I certainly will, as I stroll out on the beach for an afternoon dip.


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## starthrower

I should've moved 25 years ago. Too old, tired, and poor now.


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## Dorsetmike

KenOC said:


> I certainly will, as I stroll out on the beach for an afternoon dip.


One can go off people!


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## Ingélou

It's still bright, but it's turned a bit cold now in seaside Norfolk, especially at night (she wrote, having been woken by a cough).


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## KenOC

A few days ago, the weather service issued a "fire weather" alert for Thursday and Friday in California. Turns out that they weren't kidding, not one bit.

I see even Kim Kardashian has had to evacuate.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> A few days ago, the weather service issued a "fire weather" alert for Thursday and Friday in California. Turns out that they weren't kidding, not one bit.
> 
> I see even Kim Kardashian has had to evacuate.


No jokes about this one either. They just don't get any bigger than this one. It's transporting air from Alaska to south of Texas. It's the first blast of the cold season (but you're too far west because the previous smaller wave guided it down east of your customary autumn ridging (the RRR).

https://www.talkclassical.com/images/attach/jpg.gif


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## CnC Bartok

Ken, hope you are nowhere near the awful fires in California. My geography is pretty rubbish for that part of the world, so apologies if I am being crass. I remember shfa on Amazon getting the brunt of it not that long ago....


----------



## KenOC

Robert Pickett said:


> Ken, hope you are nowhere near the awful fires in California. My geography is pretty rubbish for that part of the world, so apologies if I am being crass. I remember shfa on Amazon getting the brunt of it not that long ago....


Thanks for your concern! We're pretty safe here, ensconced in a rather large and well-watered residential community at a good distance from the dry hills and brushlands. The big fires right now are up in central CA (already totally burned down one town of 26,000 and caused multiple deaths) and north of LA (burning toward the coast and threatening Ventura, Malibu, and other tony coastal communities). 150,000 evacuated in that fire last time I checked. The closest fire is about 100 miles north of where we live.

Lots of room for things to happen here! California is a big place, larger than Germany by quite a bit, and Germany is the largest country in Europe (not counting Russia anyway).


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## Dan Ante

Just saw it on TV, devastating.


----------



## atsizat

It is funny when lows are higher than highs.

Met Office publishes the lows between 6 pm and 6 am and highs between 6 am and 6 pm. For this reason, you do not know what is the actual low of the day when the weather is cloudy and wet  This system works perfectly when the sky is clear since sun gives heat during the daytime and the weather cools off after sun is gone but it does not work in cloudy and wet weather.


----------



## KenOC

There are about 14 active wildfires in California right now, of which two are very serious: the Camp fire in central CA and the huge Woolsey fire just north of LA and hitting Malibu. Very bad stuff indeed. Here's a short news report on those two fires, if anybody's interested. The death toll in the Camp fire has increased to 23 since this report.






BTW we're about 80 miles SE of the Woolsey fire and our skies were brown all day, and this evening the sun set a deep blood red.

Added: A lot of celebrities are homeless tonight. Martin Sheen (_Apocalypse Now_) is evacuated to Zuma Beach and is sleeping in his car, he says. Believes his house is gone. There are plenty of others.

A comparative day of respite today, but the hot Santa Ana winds are due back tomorrow with the relative humidity dropping again to the single digits through mid-day Tuesday.


----------



## Ingélou

KenOC said:


> There are about 14 active wildfires in California right now, of which two are very serious: the Camp fire in central CA and the huge Woolsey fire just north of LA and hitting Malibu. Very bad stuff indeed. Here's a short news report on those two fires, if anybody's interested. The death toll in the Camp fire has increased to 23 since this report.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BTW we're about 80 miles SE of the Woolsey fire and our skies were brown all day, and this evening the sun set a deep blood red.
> 
> Added: A lot of celebrities are homeless tonight. Martin Sheen (_Apocalypse Now_) is evacuated to Zuma Beach and is sleeping in his car, he says. Believes his house is gone. There are plenty of others.
> 
> A comparative day of respite today, but the hot Santa Ana winds are due back tomorrow with the relative humidity dropping again to the single digits through mid-day Tuesday.


Terrible news. 
Hope there are no more deaths and things calm down & the fires are got under control. :tiphat:


----------



## Dorsetmike

After a couple of days rain it looks like I won't have to refill the bird bath for a few days.


----------



## atsizat

It'll be snowing this week in parts of Eastern Turkey but not in my warm sea side city. Winter has come to parts of Eastern Turkey. The lowest temp recorded in Turkey so far was -11.2°C in Fall 2018 since 28th October. However, it coulda been colder by now. It looks like this winter will be warm like last winter.

Last winter, no city or town in Eastern Turkey could reach -30°C, it was an above average winter. I think this winter will be as warm as the last winter.


----------



## KenOC

The Camp fire is now the deadliest wildfire in recorded California history. 56 dead and 130 unaccounted for. Some deaths are indicated only by fragments of charred bones. Forensic specialists from area universities have been called in.

Here's a view of the two main fire areas, both now being brought under control since the dry winds have died down quite a bit.


----------



## philoctetes

This is not your grandfather's California. Or even your mom's. 

Thinking about going elsewhere and ain't letting nobody know where.


----------



## KenOC

Trump tweets: "There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!"

Perhaps Mr. Trump hasn't noticed the 57% of California's forest land is managed by the federal government. Only 3% is managed by the state of California. The remainder is managed by private individuals, companies, and Native American tribes.

Perhaps Mr. Trump would be willing to leave the White House in competent hands and come out to California to offer his sage advice in forest management...?​


----------



## Guest

I'm about 100 miles south of the Camp Fire. Here's a screen shot that my sister-in-law took of downtown Sacramento (about 15 miles east of me):










It's hard to reconcile the west coast on fire and the east coast buried in snow.


----------



## Ingélou

The 'like' button is totally inappropriate for the above posts about the California fires - I wish there was a button for 'read with dismay'.

What a tragedy.


----------



## ldiat

my kid was close and lost power and phone service for a while. we moved just before the fires. the last ones in Ventura Co. were close also...very sad


----------



## starthrower

There's a good article on the Popular Science site refuting Trump's ignorant statements concerning California Forest Management.

Meanwhile here in central NY we got blasted with 6 inches of wet, heavy snow making everything a sloppy mess. And tonight I have to drive 50 miles to a Richard Thompson concert in Ithaca. I couldn't find a hotel room for under 200 dollars so I'm driving back after the show.


----------



## Itullian

^^^Yikes! Good luck and stay safe.


----------



## KenOC

starthrower said:


> There's a good article on the Popular Science site refuting Trump's ignorant statements concerning California Forest Management.


In California we talk about the fire situation a lot. Most seem to agree that there are several reasons wildfires have been bad lately, including:

1 - Five years of drought have left the land quite parched and the vegetation more flammable.

2 - The drought has made the pine forests susceptible to our native bark-boring beetles. Wherever you go in the mountains, there are large brown patches of dead and tinder-dry trees. There are an estimated 102 million such dead trees, a huge problem. See a pretty typical picture below.

3 - The continuing growth in population has pushed people into fire-prone areas, and fire suppression efforts have expanded to try and protect such areas.

4 - Fire suppression itself has multiplied the problem because it prevents the normal occurrence of wildfires that thin the forests. In some areas, tree density is up to ten times what is was in more "natural" times, a century ago. So fires burn hotter and spread more quickly, and tree diseases and pests (like the bark-boring beetles) spread from tree to tree more easily.

Anyway, I hope that Pres. Trump, with his evident vast knowledge of forest management practices, can offer some useful wisdom!


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Trump tweets: "There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!"
> 
> Perhaps Mr. Trump hasn't noticed the 57% of California's forest land is managed by the federal government. Only 3% is managed by the state of California. The remainder is managed by private individuals, companies, and Native American tribes.
> 
> Perhaps Mr. Trump would be willing to leave the White House in competent hands and come out to California to offer his sage advice in forest management...?​


He's arriving next week--about as welcome as feces in a swimming pool.


----------



## starthrower

We made it to Ithaca. Looking forward to this rockin' show. They've got two ace acoustic guitarists opening for Richard. Rory Block and Cindy Cashdollar. Should be lotsa good guitar pickin'.


----------



## KenOC

71 now known dead in the Camp Fire, with about 1,000 unaccounted for -- a very scary number.

Up to now, California's deadliest wildfire was a rather small blaze in Los Angeles's Griffith Park that killed 29 people in 1933.

A good link on why the fires are growing more destructive:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-californias-wildfires-are-so-destructive-in-5-charts/


----------



## Guest

Kontrapunctus said:


> He's arriving next week--about as welcome as feces in a swimming pool.


Actually, he arrived at Beale AFB in Yuba County this morning.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> 71 now known dead in the Camp Fire, with about 1,000 unaccounted for -- a very scary number.
> 
> Up to now, California's deadliest wildfire was a rather small blaze in Los Angeles's Griffith Park that killed 29 people in 1933.
> 
> A good link on why the fires are growing more destructive:
> 
> https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-californias-wildfires-are-so-destructive-in-5-charts/


It says, "We have the potential to stop this cycle of repetitive loss, but only if we have the political will to do so."

I wonder what they're talking about here. They don't go on to explain what that means.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Is the timber affected by this bark beetle still usable, if so surely some timber merchants should get chopping and clear as much as possible, timber is not exactly a cheap item.


----------



## KenOC

Dorsetmike said:


> Is the timber affected by this bark beetle still usable, if so surely some timber merchants should get chopping and clear as much as possible, timber is not exactly a cheap item.


From an article: "The largest stands of dead forest, most of which are ponderosa pine, are being cut down and trucked to some of the 25 mills that remain from California's once-booming logging trade. Most of these facilities, though, are already inundated with salvaged wood from past wildfires."

"Because much of the wood is rotted or stained blue from beetle infestation, most of its value is lost. It may become mulch or animal bedding. Power plants that use organic materials to generate electricity have also been receiving some of the lesser-value forest debris. But like the mills, there's not a lot of them, and they have only so much capacity."

Also noted: The dry wood in the dead trees tends to split, which limits its use. Splitting can be much better controlled when a tree is cut green and kiln-dried.

*Added*: Anybody familiar with the heyday of West Coast logging half a century ago will remember the scene -- hundreds of miles of logging roads and numerous high trestle bridges over deep canyons, everything wide enough for logging trucks to pass coming and going and able to bear the loads of the trucks and other heavy equipment. All this would be required, and on a massive scale, to clear the dead trees from the Sierra slopes and foothills. And if it could be done, it would be considered an environmental disaster in itself.


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> It says, "We have the potential to stop this cycle of repetitive loss, but only if we have the political will to do so."
> 
> I wonder what they're talking about here. They don't go on to explain what that means.


The top 50 causes of death in California are mostly medical, but include:
- Poisoning, #17
- Falls, #22
- Traffic accidents, #23
- Suicide, #25
- Homicide, #35
- Alcohol, #42
- Drug use, #47

Deaths from forest fires (or even more so from earthquakes) don't even come close to registering as a significant cause of death. For instance, last year there were three times the deaths from homicides as from all the forest fires in the last 50 years, even including the Camp Fire.

So where's the logic in spending vast amounts of money preventing forest fires when the same money, or even much less, might be spent elsewhere with more meaningful results?


----------



## KenOC

Sorry, can't leave this alone. Pres. Trump, visiting the now-burned town of Paradise, says California can control its wildfires by raking its forests. That's right. One keckuva lot of rakes and a heckuva lot of rakers! Says he was advised in this by the president of Finland.

On being told this, the president of Finland said, "Huh?" Amazing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/fact...s-to-prevent-wildfires-he-is-wrong/ar-BBPPWxj

Sadly, I'm not making this up.


----------



## starthrower

His ignorance and incompetence is appalling. Two more years of this fool is unconscionable.


----------



## KenOC

The idea of raking California's forests to prevent fires has been given some credence in another thread. I'll note here that California has about 33 million acres* of forest land. "Get them rakes, boys, we're gonna have us a busy afternoon. And in a couple of weeks, we'll start all over again!"**

*That's about the size of Maine. And it wouldn't address non-forest fires in scrub land, like the Woolsey fire that's still burning in the LA/Malibu area.

**Of course, 57% of California's forestland is managed by the federal government, so I would expect 57% of the rake-wielders to be federal employees, not state. Pres. Trump, please note.


----------



## KenOC

The death toll in California's Camp Fire that destroyed the town of Paradise is now at 81. This makes it easily California's deadliest forest fire ever. Many are missing, and the toll is expected to rise.

But one of the deadliest forest fires in US history was the Cloquet Fire in Minnesota in 1918 that destroyed 38 communities and killed about a thousand people. Read about it here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloquet_fire

Also see the Peshtigo Fire in Wisconsin in 1871. "It was the deadliest wildfire in American history, with the estimated deaths of around 1,500 people and possibly as many as 2,500."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peshtigo_Fire


----------



## Luchesi

It’ll be relatively mild for folks up north in the US until the 8th and that one won’t be very cold. Then another week and a half after that before the wintery cold begins. So, quite mild this year. It's a planetary wave called a long wave ridge. 

But we know that fluid mechanics are pushed in the opposite direction by accumulating small pushes or bumps which aren't detectable in the current data set. IOW, the opposite could happen given enough time for these perturbations to feed back.


----------



## starthrower

KenOC said:


> The top 50 causes of death in California are mostly medical, but include:
> - Poisoning, #17
> - Falls, #22
> - Traffic accidents, #23
> - Suicide, #25
> - Homicide, #35
> - Alcohol, #42
> - Drug use, #47


Poisoning leads all these other causes of death? What are Californians being poisoned by?


----------



## KenOC

Back to weather… We’re always concerned about rain here, and until last year had five years of drought. It’s now been raining, sometimes light and sometimes heavier, for two days, and it’s still coming down somewhat. We’ve had, in this event, about two inches of rain.

John Wayne Airport, near my home, now has over five inches of rain in this rain year, October 1 through September 30, more than twice the average for the date and not too much short of half the average total annual rainfall of thirteen inches. Good news!

BUT… the rain down here doesn’t count for much since there’s really no way of capturing it and saving it for the dry summers. So we really need the rain, snow, and snowpack in Central and Northern California. The good news: They’re ahead of plan also.

Now maybe, for a change, I can flush my toilet without feeling guilty.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Back to weather… We're always concerned about rain here, and until last year had five years of drought. It's now been raining, sometimes light and sometimes heavier, for two days, and it's still coming down somewhat. We've had, in this event, about two inches of rain.
> 
> John Wayne Airport, near my home, now has over five inches of rain in this rain year, October 1 through September 30, more than twice the average for the date and not too much short of half the average total annual rainfall of thirteen inches. Good news!
> 
> BUT… the rain down here doesn't count for much since there's really no way of capturing it and saving it for the dry summers. So we really need the rain, snow, and snowpack in Central and Northern California. The good news: They're ahead of plan also.
> 
> Now maybe, for a change, I can flush my toilet without feeling guilty.


According to the models the next 3 will go north of you, but the 4th on about the 21st will give you more rain.

No weatherman will put much stock in this, it's too many troughs so too much can go differently, but let's see if you get rain around the 21st. Usually takes about a week and a half for disturbances in the flow to accumulate and ruin the prognosis. Also, if the air moves at 40mph, where is the air right now that will be over you on the 21st?


----------



## atsizat

The coldest low in Eastern Turkey today was -24.5°C.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> The coldest low in Eastern Turkey today was -24.5°C.


At what elevation?


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> At what elevation?


The elevation of the town is 2038 metres located in North-Eastern Turkey.

In Eastern Turkey, some towns are even higher elevated than 2000 metres. That geography is very high elevated.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> The elevation of the town is 2038 metres located in North-Eastern Turkey.
> 
> In Eastern Turkey, some towns are even higher elevated than 2000 metres. That geography is very high elevated.


A good approximation is, you lose almost 11C every one thousand meters in elevation. Of course it depends upon the profile of the air mass.

We now have these predicted profiles, surface to 40,000 feet, most anywhere in the world, for the next 16 days. The problem is, these forecasts, out that far, are known scientifically to be wrong. This is because any disturbance entering the data field at say, day 9, will significantly change the results on day 16, because every nearby flow pattern is dynamically connected to every other.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> A good approximation is, you lose almost 11C every one thousand meters in elevation. Of course it depends upon the profile of the air mass.
> 
> We now have these predicted profiles, surface to 40,000 feet, most anywhere in the world, for the next 16 days. The problem is, these forecasts, out that far, are known scientifically to be wrong. This is because any disturbance entering the data field at say, day 9, will significantly change the results on day 16, because every nearby flow pattern is dynamically connected to every other.


Actually you are wrong because there are other factors such as continentality. Those geography is far from sea and very high elevated which causes not only cold winters but also very continental climate. It warms up a lot in summer.

I live in a sea side city in the west and average high in july is around 30°c but in Eastern Turkey, a city with an elevation of 1650 metres has the same average high in July. There is a huge temperature difference during the year because of the continentality of the climate.

If the geography didn't have the continentality factor, it would have warmer winters at the same elevation. In the west, go up to mountains but it won't be as cold as the cities and towns of Eastern Turkey which has the same elevation. Everywhere in this geography is high elevated. You are not in the mountains. You are in a high elevated geography which is away from sea. There is a difference between a mountain and a high elevated geography.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Thanks to cloud cover I never got to see the Geminids.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> Actually you are wrong because there are other factors such as continentality. Those geography is far from sea and very high elevated which causes not only cold winters but also very continental climate. It warms up a lot in summer.
> 
> I live in a sea side city in the west and average high in july is around 30°c but in Eastern Turkey, a city with an elevation of 1650 metres has the same average high in July. There is a huge temperature difference during the year because of the continentality of the climate.
> 
> If the geography didn't have the continentality factor, it would have warmer winters at the same elevation. In the west, go up to mountains but it won't be as cold as the cities and towns of Eastern Turkey which has the same elevation. Everywhere in this geography is high elevated. You are not in the mountains. You are in a high elevated geography which is away from sea. There is a difference between a mountain and a high elevated geography.


You're right, 1000 meters might not be high enough to get above the surface heating effects. I live at 1200 meters, but the mountains around me average over 3000 meters, so let's say for you and me it's 2000 meters equals 22 degrees.

It's simply about the vertical lapse rate at one location, AGL (above ground level), not two locations, and yes it's affected by sea breezes, pressure systems, humidity differences and cloud cover etc., but 2000 meters above your head the temperature will generally be almost 22 degrees cooler.

There's a slightly different lapse rate inland than near a large body of water, so it's complicated.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Took advantage of a slight break in the weather to go out of town to a farm shop and stock up on a few bits for Christmas; signs of the recent weather were visible in many places, a few trees down, but the most noticeable was the river, just outside Wimborne, the Google street view, below, from the bridge dates from May 2016, today the river has overflowed its banks and the fields are flooded it's also flowing much quicker.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@50.7981799,-1.9962095,3a,75y,174.62h,74.88t/data=!3m5!1e1!3m3!1s8Jp3fgXZGIj9yDwxRLJ2hQ!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo2.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3D8Jp3fgXZGIj9yDwxRLJ2hQ%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D105.84431%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100

The bridge is "Julians bridge" dating from the late 15thC, not the oldest bridge in Dorset by about 300 years, that's White mill bridge about 3 miles upstream.


----------



## atsizat

If I am crazy about cold weather, can I say that I am a cold freak?


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> If I am crazy about cold weather, can I say that I am a cold freak?


I spent a few years in Alaska. I never liked it.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> I spent a few years in Alaska. I never liked it.


That I am a cold freak means I am crazy about cold weather, right? I ask this question because English is not my native langauge.

I myself like cold but the lowest natural temp I experienced by being outside was -18.5°C. With proper dressing, it was far very enjoyable for me. I am a cold lover myself. At such low temperatures, the view is so beatiful. Everything was frozen, even trees. It was awesome.

If you dress properly, -18.5°C is not cold. If you wear a t-shirt, even +10°C is cold. It is all about dressing.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> That I am a cold freak means I am crazy about cold weather, right? I ask this question because English is not my native langauge.
> 
> I myself like cold but the lowest natural temp I experienced by being outside was -18.5°C. With proper dressing, it was far very enjoyable for me. I am a cold lover myself.
> 
> If you dress properly -18.5°C is not cold. If you wear a t-shirt, even +10°C is cold. It is all about dressing.


I've heard "neat freak" and "heavy metal freak", but not "cold freak".

You are a chionophile (n.) - a person who loves cold weather, snow.


----------



## joen_cph

It's been a mild winter so far here in Denmark, contrary to predictions ... only few times below zero C, and the only moments with a little snow were on Dec 23rd and 24th. On Dec.25, we had up to 7 degrees C, so there's no snow around any longer.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> It's been a mild winter so far here in Denmark, contrary to predictions ... only few times below zero C, and the only moments with a little snow were on Dec 23rd and 24th. On Dec.25, we had up to 7 degrees C, so there's no snow around any longer.


Yes, it seems a little bit ominous to me, as in, what's going on? Where are the normal cold days? It's been very mild around here too. I can't remember such a long mild December. But there is the wave of cold coming down now, extending to at least the beginning week of January. It just won't be as cold as it often was a decade ago with this large-scale pattern. And then we'll be mild again until at least the 16th of January, not warm but mild. Bad for the natural gas futures market.

Now, I'm ONLY saying it's SLIGHTLY milder than Novembers and Decembers of the past, and with one look at the charts I can see why. The large planet-encompassing waves have been elongated longitudinally so that the normal amount of cold air hasn't made it this far south. And not to you in Denmark either, apparently.

A climatologist might say, well, we measure that the energy content of the atmospheric systems have been increasing on average and this strength blocks the northern air from falling south through the longer term wave pattern, which would be naturally replacing the warmer less dense air to the south of it. (This blockage happens for many months during the other side of our orbit when the sun is much higher in our sky powering the large waves.) Every year the Arctic cools by the same amount because the sun's position is the same every year. So that hasn't changed. …so… is it gloal warming? I'd guess that some of it is..

It can also be partly an uncommon sequence in the wave pattern. A purely coincidental accumulation of feedback effects in the North Pacific in the chaotic system.

Also, the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) off the coast of California boosts the attacking waves safely to our east so that they dump what cold they carry over the Eastern US. We like that.


----------



## joen_cph

China's winter-season "Ice Town" in Harbin city ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harbin_International_Ice_and_Snow_Sculpture_Festival


----------



## atsizat

I dont know where Google gets the data but it doesnt match the official weather stations here so I know it is not based on official weather stations. Official weather stations in many places here show different numbers than what Google says.

Google shows a colder place warmer and a warmer place colder in the country.

For instance, a lot of times Google shows my city colder than what official weather station shows.

For where I live ( İzmit), Official Weather Station shows 5.3°C at the moment while Google shows 1°C.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat;

You'll have to find out whether the temperatures are reported hourly or every 15 minutes. Whether the sun shining due to partly cloudy skies. When it's cold - whether the wind is blowing gently makes a few degrees difference too.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> atsizat;
> 
> You'll have to find out whether the temperatures are reported hourly or every 15 minutes. Whether the sun shining due to partly cloudy skies. When it's cold - whether the wind is blowing gently makes a few degrees difference too.


It has nothing to do with that. Official Weather Stations here always show the current temperatures ( About 5 or 6 minutes ago). Google is just not based on official weather stations. It shows warmer places colder and colder places warmer in the country. I prefer to look at temps from the website of the met office since it is the official one.

A town in Eastern Turkey. The one above the official weather station which is showing a few minutes ago and the one below is what Google shows now.


----------



## Luchesi

Google gets its data from Weather Underground.

Look into how that network works. It's not reliable enough for meteorologists and public safety.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> Google gets its data from Weather Underground.
> 
> Look into how that network works. It's not reliable enough for meteorologists and public safety.


The temp difference above is about 12°C between what met office shows and what that site shows.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> The temp difference above is about 12°C between what met office shows and what that site shows.


It's difficult to get data from an amateur/free network in that part of Turkey.


----------



## atsizat

The lowest temp officially recorded in Turkey today was -29.5°C, which is a town in Eastern Turkey.

Yesterday, the town had a low of -28.7°C while it had a low of -29.5°C today. Slightly colder today.









Most of the time, the lowest temps in the country is recorded in that town ( Göle) by Turkish State Meteorological Service but long term official averages are not available unfortunately.

Here is what I hate about the Met Office here, it only publishes the long term averages of provincial capitals, not other districts of the province.

The capital of the province is at a lower elevation and it is warmer throughout the year but since it is the capital of the province and its long term official averages are available. So the capital of the province ( Ardahan) is warmer as it is lower elevated.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ardahan


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## Luchesi

You can estimate the temperatures if you know the channeling effects and the specific elevations.

https://mgm.gov.tr/eng/forecast-cities.aspx?m=AGRI


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## atsizat

Enjoying the cold









As they say there is no cold but bad clothing. Very true. I got dressed very good and I can stay out for an hour. No problem.


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## Kjetil Heggelund

I got snowed the other day... -17,5 today.


----------



## atsizat

The lowest temp recorded tonight was -28.6°C where I am. My temperature got frozen later at night. It didn't show anything.


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## atsizat

-26.5°C. Enjoyed the cold weather walking outside. It past 11 pm.

View attachment 111836


[


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> The lowest temp recorded tonight was -28.6°C where I am. My temperature got frozen later at night. It didn't show anything.


Thanks. That's cold!

We haven't been much below -10 C ever since the major waves have been consistently diverted to the east of us. Global warming is good for us here?


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> Thanks. That's cold!
> 
> We haven't been much below -10 C ever since the major waves have been consistently diverted to the east of us. Global warming is good for us here?


The lowest temp recorded tonight was -29.5°C where I am, which was the coldest temp recorded in Turkey tonight. I went to the coldest town in Turkey for winter holiday. I will stay for 4 days here. Even though I came here from a very warm city, I dont have any difficulty walking outside because I got dressed according to the weather. There is no cold but bad clothing. When the weather gets colder, I put one more clothes on me. There are 7 clothes on my upper body incluging the coat.

Long term official averages are not avaibale for the town since Turkish State Metorological Servive publishes the long terms averages of Provincial Capitals only.


----------



## EdwardBast

Here in the Adirondack Mountains of New York it's -22°C and we have a foot of new crystal-sugar snow on the ground (at 1075 feet above sea level) and it's still falling. After shoveling I will be donning my snowshoes and ascending the local mountain. A day of serious exercise ahead!


----------



## starthrower

The storm has past here in Syracuse. But wind and lake effect snow tonight. Looks to be about a foot deep out there. And only 10 degrees F.


----------



## Joe B

starthrower said:


> The storm has past here in Syracuse. But wind and lake effect snow tonight. Looks to be about a foot deep out there. And only 10 degrees F.


I wish we had gotten only snow here in CT, but after about 5 inches or so it started sleeting, and then this morning just before 5 am it started raining. Everything quickly turned into 3 inches of thick slush, too much for my snow blower to handle. Three hours later I had it cleaned up. It continued to sleet until 4:30 pm. I got the cars cleaned; at least got the doors to open and the windows and lights cleaned off. It's suppose to do down to -25 F tonight with the wind (Oh Joy!) and be in the single digits tomorrow.....BURR!!!


----------



## Luchesi

Joe B said:


> I wish we had gotten only snow here in CT, but after about 5 inches or so it started sleeting, and then this morning just before 5 am it started raining. Everything quickly turned into 3 inches of thick slush, too much for my snow blower to handle. Three hours later I had it cleaned up. It continued to sleet until 4:30 pm. I got the cars cleaned; at least got the doors to open and the windows and lights cleaned off. It's suppose to do down to -25 F tonight with the wind (Oh Joy!) and be in the single digits tomorrow.....BURR!!!


Hopefully these outbreaks will keep the tropical diseases etc. from reaching the very dangerously populated areas in the Northeast, as the warmists have warned.

When I saw your 25 below I got a twinge of remorse because a friend of mine is heading back to Cornell and he wanted me to tell him how bad this cold core low would be for you guys. I told him it would be an average one, milder than those headline making ones. Ooops! ...And then I read that you're talking about windchill factor. Whew!

There is something to be learned from years like this in which the milder than normal weather lingers into late December and then we have to remember that the cold air is colder than average to your north, because there hasn't been the normal bleeding off to the south. It somewhat confuses the models too, because there's very few data points in the far north so the modelers have had to tweak the sensitivities. Now that's a fascinating subject! Those modelers are some of the smartest people who I've ever known.


----------



## atsizat

-30°C. It is a bit cold outside 

I walked outside and enjoyed the cold weather.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> -30°C. It is a bit cold outside
> 
> I walked outside and enjoyed the cold weather.


What's your elevation? I forgot.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> What's your elevation? I forgot.


Average elevation of the town is 2030 metres.

This photo of me was taken when it was -30°C in the morning.


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## atsizat

And these nice pictures from the town was taken 1 day before.


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## atsizat

In the evening, I saw something that looked like a wolf that walked past just maybe 30-40 metres away from me. I got scared. I went inside a cafe and asked a guy who was from there if it was a wolf or not. He said it wasn't but I think it was. Its face had no difference from the volves in discovery channel documentaries. There are hills and forests nearby but people say volves dont come to the center of town because of people. I never walked outside of the center of town at late hours. Only daytime. I stayed in the central area of the town in late hours.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> In the evening, I saw something that looked like a wolf that walked past just maybe 30-40 metres away from me. I got scared. I went inside a cafe and asked a guy who was from there if it was a wolf or not. He said it wasn't but I think it was. Its face had no difference from the volves in discovery channel documentaries. There are hills and forests nearby but people say volves dont come to the center of town because of people. I never walked outside of the center of town at late hours. Only daytime. I stayed in the central area of the town in late hours.


Extreme weather will bring out animals into our neighborhood. Bobcats in the winter and rattlesnakes in the late spring. These guys are trying to make a living in a shrinking environment. They didn't get the memo that humans are everywhere now and there's very little food for them anymore. The young ones are pushed out of the safer territories. Every few months someone loses a small dog.


----------



## philoctetes

This time of year the bears come down from Desolation Wilderness and plunder homes on the west side of Tahoe. Lots of good webcam videos to watch. Saw one where the bear crawled through a window over the kitchen sink.


----------



## KenOC

We don't have wolves here, but we do have coyotes that attack pets and sometimes children. Something to watch out for.

We also have mountain lions, aka cougars, that pose a threat not just to pets but to full-grown adults on occasion. Human deaths are rare, but they do happen.


----------



## philoctetes

Coyotes are now seen occasionally in the Outer Sunset district of SF.


----------



## KenOC

Speaking of chilliness:

"Two five-year-old girls who left their nursery in Siberia in bitterly cold temperatures unnoticed by their teachers have been found. The two, who wanted to surprise their parents, suffered frostbite and hypothermia. They walked home on one of the coldest days of the year in temperatures of -45C (-49F)."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46964539


----------



## EdwardBast

Not long ago here, in the Adirondack Mountains of NY, I had a bear raiding my garbage can outside. Coyotes have been killing deer up on the local mountain. And small pets are always in danger from fishers, which are big, vicious weasels.


----------



## joen_cph

Nice Spanish weather in Cordoba and near Malaga currently


----------



## Ingélou

Areas of the UK have had snow, but we've just had very cold temperatures with a frost on the shed roof. But today is a sort of 'freezing fog' , which is so depressing. Oh to be in Cordoba ^^^^ now that January's here.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Overcast and 11C here, we had some rain yesterday, more forecast for tomorrow, temperature may get down to 0C Tuesday. I only go outside about once a week to shop, temperature indoors stays around 23C +/- 1 in the living room, 20C in the bedroom.


----------



## jasper01

I live in Northern Ontario, Canada. Winter was slow to start but now by Jan 25 we have 2.5 feet of snow and we have had temperatures of -30C. Add wind chill to that and it feels like -40C or F. So I spend a fair bit of time listening to music in front of the wood stove.


----------



## KenOC

Looks like our "winter" is about over here. Temps in the 70s most days, forecast for 80 tomorrow. No rain in sight, but the Sierra snowpack is fine so that's OK.


----------



## atsizat

After staying in a very cold, high elevated town in Eastern Turkey for 4 days, I returned to my warm, sea side city in Western Turkey. I stayed in the town for just 4 days and experienced -30*C being outside. It was nice.

At such cold temperatures, it is even impossible to hold the cell phone with gloves. It still causes terrible hand burning touching the cell phone with gloves too. I was unable to talk on phone even with gloves. Also I put 7 clothes on my upper body including the coat and keeping my hand up was also tyring with that many clothes on me when I talked on phone. As long as I didn't hold my cell phone, my hands were okay with gloves. One time, some snow got inside my shoes and my feet started burning because of that. I went inside a place to get my feet warm ( there were 2 pairs of socks in my shoes). And when I talked on phone, even with gloves, I needed to go inside a place to get my hands warm because of serious hand burning. Holding cell phone caused me to feel like my hands were on fire even with gloves.

Maybe I should have worn 2 pairs of gloves instead of one pair. Lol.


----------



## KenOC

The American Midwest is about to be visited by an exceptionally cold "polar vortex", BBC says.

"The coldest temperatures are expected to hit from Tuesday to Thursday, with forecasters predicting that Chicago will be colder than Antarctica. The Illinois city could experience a low of -33C (-27F), with freezing winds making that feel closer to -46C (-50F), officials say…

"Chicago police say people are being robbed at gunpoint of their coats. Those wearing Canada Goose jackets, which can cost as much as £900 ($1,100), have been targeted, local media report.

"Weather officials in the state of Iowa have warned people to 'avoid taking deep breaths, and to minimise talking' if they go outside."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47047089


----------



## Taggart

Woke up to snow this morning. Just a gentle dusting but most unusual here at the seaside.


----------



## Luchesi

Taggart said:


> Woke up to snow this morning. Just a gentle dusting but most unusual here at the seaside.


wiki says

By the 5th century the Angles, after whom East Anglia and England itself are named, had established control of the region and later became the "north folk" and the "south folk", hence, "Norfolk" and "Suffolk".


----------



## Ingélou

Our snow is fading already - we started off with freezing fog, but then the sun came out. There is more forecast, but we're not sure that we'll be affected as we live by the sea.

A transatlantic friend posted this photo on Facebook of the aftermath of a North Dakota Snowstorm.


----------



## geralmar

Minus fourteen degrees Fahrenheit last night (-45 wind chill); pipes bursting all over. The announcer on the Detroit classical radio station opined, "It's a bad day if you're a sewer pipe". I thought so when is it a good day if you're a sewer pipe?

Over the summer a stray cat took up residence in our back yard. It gets a daily watering and feeding and a couple months ago I assembled a small hutch for it next to the garage. Otherwise we leave it alone and it reciprocates the same. However the recent weather has been brutally and dangerously cold so I bought a heating pad and strung fifty feet of new electrical cord to the hutch. The endeavor set me back thirty dollars so the cat better damn well appreciate it.


----------



## Dan Ante

geralmar said:


> Minus fourteen degrees Fahrenheit last night (-45 wind chill); pipes bursting all over. The announcer on the Detroit classical radio station opined, "It's a bad day if you're a sewer pipe". I thought so when is it a good day if you're a sewer pipe?
> .


Bet you're glad you ain't a Brass Monkey


----------



## CnC Bartok

Snowed off work today, and tomorrow! A vicious -1C outside, and an insurmountable four inches of snow. Oxfordshire brought to a standstill. LOL!

It's quite pretty though.....


----------



## elgar's ghost

Our snow has been and it's already gone - perhaps we were only on the fringes of it. That polar vortex in the US sounds brutal - it makes me grateful that here in the English midlands we never have to endure such extreme conditions.


----------



## Ingélou

elgars ghost said:


> *Our snow has been and it's already gone* - perhaps we were only on the fringes of it. That polar vortex in the US sounds brutal - it makes me grateful that here in the English midlands we never have to endure such extreme conditions.


Same here, for Norfolk. 
But I've just seen some photos on Facebook from my sister who lives in Frome in Somerset (South-West England, for non-UK members) - captioned 'a foot deep and still snowing'.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Here we had almost an inch of snow last evening, now disappearing, paths and car park clear, grass showing through.


----------



## Ingélou

Ingélou said:


> Same here, for Norfolk.
> But I've just seen some photos on Facebook from my sister who lives in Frome in Somerset (South-West England, for non-UK members) - captioned 'a foot deep and still snowing'.





Dorsetmike said:


> Here we had almost an inch of snow last evening, now disappearing, paths and car park clear, grass showing through.


Amazing the variation,yet Dorset & Somerset are not very far apart.

That's what I love about the UK - so many variations within a small space - can tell by someone's speech where they hail from, and from the way a folk tune sounds. Lovely.


----------



## LezLee

Sunny with blue skies here in Central Scotland, yesterday and today. Snow on the Ochil hills but just some frost in my garden where the sun can’t reach. Still lots of apples on my tree though some have now fallen. The blackbirds love them of course, but annoyingly, they start on a new one at each visit. Perhaps the peel is specially nutritious?


----------



## Ingélou

LezLee said:


> Sunny with blue skies here in Central Scotland, yesterday and today. Snow on the Ochil hills but just some frost in my garden where the sun can't reach. Still lots of apples on my tree though some have now fallen. The blackbirds love them of course, but annoyingly, they start on a new one at each visit. Perhaps the peel is specially nutritious?


I remember my mother rushing in, when I was a teenager, crying 'That naughty blackbird!' It was the one that 'owned' our garden, and it had taken one peck out of every apple on the tree.

I don't know why either. Maybe it's *sheer perversity*?


----------



## LezLee

You could be right. Also, yesterday 2 lovely bullfinches arrived (both male). They were rummaging in a bush at the back, which I couldn’t identify at distance. Hawthorn, bramble?


----------



## LezLee

Just had a thought - perhaps they’re going straight in for the pips.


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

Snow chaos here.


----------



## Luchesi

Kjetil Heggelund said:


> Snow chaos here.


Do you learn about your Norway weather in school? Students aren't taught about the dynamics of weather here, but they do learn about anemometers and barometers and hydrometers. This seems to be a holdover from 40 years ago when meteorologists needed to use those handheld devices. So I wonder if it generates interest in the daily progression of weather systems? I wonder how students make that connection.


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

Luchesi said:


> Do you learn about your Norway weather in school? Students aren't taught about the dynamics of weather here, but they do learn about anemometers and barometers and hydrometers. This seems to be a holdover from 40 years ago when meteorologists needed to use those handheld devices. So I wonder if it generates interest in the daily progression of weather systems? I wonder how students make that connection.


I'm only a guitar teacher...I think they should learn SNOWx3 + CARx35000 = CHAOSx13


----------



## Luchesi

Kjetil Heggelund said:


> I'm only a guitar teacher...I think they should learn SNOWx3 + CARx35000 = CHAOSx13


Yes, avoid the crazy drivers. Weather comes in waves and so does music.

I've meant to let you know about this YouTube channel of many many moving scores of guitar transcriptions.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzlMsy46uESj-SKro7oFYJw


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

Luchesi said:


> Yes, avoid the crazy drivers. Weather comes in waves and so does music.
> 
> I've meant to let you know about this YouTube channel of many many moving scores of guitar transcriptions.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzlMsy46uESj-SKro7oFYJw


At first sight that channel seems awesome! Thanx a bunch. Francois Leduc seems like a familiar name...Must be jazz guitar weather


----------



## starthrower

From polar vortex to 60 degrees F in three days.


----------



## senza sordino

The polar vortex has moved west. We had a snow day today. I've been working as a teacher for twenty five years. The last snow day we had was 24 years ago. I was surprised that schools were closed today, but it was the right decision. It's cold here. Usually snow on the west coast turns to rain. This snow is staying. The snow is not wet and heavy like we normally get, it's light and fluffy. All schools and universities are closed today. We don't have a lot of snow ploughs, and we do have hills. I don't know if the schools will be closed tomorrow. I'll find out tomorrow morning.

My backyard at 6pm.


----------



## philoctetes

Yep, it's cold and wet here and the river is expected to flood Thursday night. Could get high enough to flow under my house which is elevated. Just spent a couple hours getting stuff off the ground. Bad timing as I already have an injury from lifting. Will move my truck up hill tomorrow if necessary. Ugh!

This all started just after I skiied in Tahoe for my birthday. Returning home I had to wait a few hours for I80 to be cleared. I think it's had to be cleared every day since then and the snow depth has probably quadrupled or more. 

Will post pictures of the flood when it comes. Stayed tuned.


----------



## joen_cph

Slightly humid and grey in Denmark, yet mild with the first spring flowers coming up. We had no real winter. Am however in New York for the first time, glorious and sunny weather today ... took a stroll on the High Line. In February in New York, temperatures can fluctuate between minus 15 C and plus 15 C practically from day to day. Surely no smog today.


----------



## Rogerx

The weather man says 16 degrees Celsius, spring is in the air.:angel:


----------



## philoctetes

Well, I did all the work to get ready and the flood came no higher than street level this morning. Just 24 hours ago it was forecast to be 2-3 feet higher and then the rain went south. After warning neighbors and moving vehicles uphill it was all for nothing. But many others at lower elevations will be miserable today.


----------



## KenOC

Our average annual rainfall is just over 13 inches -- yes, we're a bit dry! But this year we're already at 16 inches, and our rain year doesn't end until September 30. There's so much snow in the Sierras that one of the major ski resorts, and all its guests, were snowed in for five days!

The Mammoth ski resort just announced it will stay open through July 4.


----------



## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> From polar vortex to 60 degrees F in three days.


Such cold air moves very fast because it's comparatively denser with more momentum to push its way into less dense air. This used to surprise local forecasters, but now it's all done by equations from physics.

When the timings are slightly off now it's because of problems in the data grid (and because assumptions have to be made when modeling the atmosphere).


----------



## Gordontrek

We're at right about the third or fourth "seasons" on the list. Today it's barely getting above 40 F (4 C) but tomorrow it's supposed to push 70 F (21 C). Then the next day, back down to 50 F (10 C). The dang weather can't seem to make up its dang mind. Most days, I leave the house wearing a jacket, gloves and a warm shirt, then I come back home in the late afternoon with no jacket and my sleeves rolled up. 
The one constant, though, is RAIN. Next week we're expecting about two inches a day, at least. Trust me, weather in this state is pretty weird.


----------



## Luchesi

Gordontrek said:


> We're at right about the third or fourth "seasons" on the list. Today it's barely getting above 40 F (4 C) but tomorrow it's supposed to push 70 F (21 C). Then the next day, back down to 50 F (10 C). The dang weather can't seem to make up its dang mind. Most days, I leave the house wearing a jacket, gloves and a warm shirt, then I come back home in the late afternoon with no jacket and my sleeves rolled up.
> The one constant, though, is RAIN. Next week we're expecting about two inches a day, at least. Trust me, weather in this state is pretty weird.


Thanks, that's a very timely post. I looked at the parade of disturbances that will pass over you until the 5th of March. 11 of them.


----------



## jasper01

An update from northern Ontario. Freezing rain turning to a blizzard yesterday. They had to call the snow plows off the road and close all of them them last night. Wind gusts up to 100KPH. All of Jan and Feb have been brutal with cold (-15 to -30C) and lots of snow. We currently have at least 3 feet on the ground with drifts 4 to 5 feet tall. Hard to imagine spring will be here in a month!


----------



## LezLee

15° Celsius here in Central Scotland. Not had the heating on for 3 days, just the electric fire. Sunny and bright, some crocuses and daffs are out.


----------



## philoctetes

Early buds are sprouting here, but the storms aren't over yet. Gonna be another game of inches this week.


----------



## Luchesi

LezLee said:


> 15° Celsius here in Central Scotland. Not had the heating on for 3 days, just the electric fire. Sunny and bright, some crocuses and daffs are out.
> 
> View attachment 113574


We average 4 to 6 inches of rain a year here in the Chihuahuan Desert and we have an annual evaporation rate of almost 90 inches, so I like to look at other peoples' rainy weather. For the first three weeks (at least) of March you'll have a lot of precipitation in your forecasts. I hope this outlook is wrong and you'll have many sunny days interspersed, but it's just a rainy pattern with wave after wave.


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

Winter is smelting


----------



## Luchesi

jasper01 said:


> An update from northern Ontario. Freezing rain turning to a blizzard yesterday. They had to call the snow plows off the road and close all of them them last night. Wind gusts up to 100KPH. All of Jan and Feb have been brutal with cold (-15 to -30C) and lots of snow. We currently have at least 3 feet on the ground with drifts 4 to 5 feet tall. Hard to imagine spring will be here in a month!


"All of Jan and Feb have been brutal with cold.."

There haven't been many blizzards in the headlines for the Northeast US so the cold hasn't bled off to the south for you quite as much as in recent winters.

A warm storm will hit the Northeast US by late Friday the first of March, but it won't bleed off much cold for you either.

When do your springtime temperatures generally begin?


----------



## jasper01

Our area of Ontario is expected to stay cold until mid March when the weather "experts" are predicting a pattern change to warmer spring weather. It will take a while to melt the snow. I would guess the snow will be mostly gone in early April.


----------



## LezLee

Luchesi said:


> We average 4 to 6 inches of rain a year here in the Chihuahuan Desert and we have an annual evaporation rate of almost 90 inches, so I like to look at other peoples' rainy weather. For the first three weeks (at least) of March you'll have a lot of precipitation in your forecasts. I hope this outlook is wrong and you'll have many sunny days interspersed, but it's just a rainy pattern with wave after wave.


I don't mind rain too much as I rarely go out. Where I am (Falkirk) is about 3 miles north of the Firth of Forth. My friend lives about 25 miles west of me in Glasgow and the weather is often quite different, not so much in temperature but in precipitation.


----------



## Luchesi

jasper01 said:


> Our area of Ontario is expected to stay cold until mid March when the weather "experts" are predicting a pattern change to warmer spring weather. It will take a while to melt the snow. I would guess the snow will be mostly gone in early April.


We see weather people on TV and websites and we try to imagine how they come up with their reports. How do the weather "experts" do their job? Some predictions are shorter range than others, because they'll look at the overall pattern generated by numerical weather prediction (NWP) and they'll cut off their report at that point at which they lose confidence in what the numerical models can successfully handle. Then they have to fill in details for their city or region from the idealized models for active weather. 
Years ago weather forecasters would draw everything freehand and usually for only 48 hours, beyond that it was called persistence, an estimated extrapolation of the earlier dynamics. It's a fascinating history.


----------



## Luchesi

LezLee said:


> I don't mind rain too much as I rarely go out. Where I am (Falkirk) is about 3 miles north of the Firth of Forth. My friend lives about 25 miles west of me in Glasgow and the weather is often quite different, not so much in temperature but in precipitation.


Yes, if the dry slots are 25 miles wide and the surface system is moving 25 miles per hour then you and your friend will often have very different precipitation vs partly cloudy conditions. You happen to be at the right angle toward Glasgow to fit with the same angle of the dry slots.


----------



## philoctetes

It's a genuine state of emergency here now. River expected to approach historic levels tomorrow.


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> It's a genuine state of emergency here now. River expected to approach historic levels tomorrow.
> 
> View attachment 113654


Stay dry! This looks serious. From CBS:

Guerneville Residents Urged To Evacuate As Russian River Nears Flood Stage


----------



## philoctetes

So much fun lifting and hauling stuff to higher ground with a re-ruptured hernia...


----------



## Taggart

philoctetes said:


> It's a genuine state of emergency here now. River expected to approach historic levels tomorrow.
> 
> View attachment 113654


All the best. Glad to see you're following the bookstore to higher ground!


----------



## philoctetes

I expect to have 8 feet of water under my house tomorrow. That's two feet under my living space. Can't decide if to evacuate or not. As the graph shows, it will recede quickly as soon as it does its dirty work.


----------



## CnC Bartok

Not the weather strictly, but my old home county of Surrey experienced another EARTHQUAKE last night. 3.1 on the Richter scale apparently. Caused a tea cup to rattle in Reigate.









Fortunately, here in the Thames Valley, we are too far away to be affected.


----------



## LezLee

Many years ago my husband experienced a small earthquake when he was staying with his sister on the Wirral (Merseyside). He was woken by a Swiss cheese plant falling on him.


----------



## philoctetes

My street right now


----------



## Ingélou

philoctetes said:


> My street right now
> 
> View attachment 113698


Oh dear - Taggart was telling me about your situation. Hope the waters abate as soon as may be and that everyone is okay.


----------



## Guest

Oh no, is that America somewhere? 
I hope you will keep safe from the horrible flooding and the terrible mess it leaves behind.


----------



## Taggart

See variously

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weat...river-area-residents-to-evacuate-now/70007561

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2019/02/26/atmospheric-river-flood-warnings-russian-napa-rivers/

https://www.russianriverhistory.org/about-rrhs/river-info/

Terrible situation. Our sympathies to all involved.


----------



## KenOC

In Guerneville the old-timers are already saying, "Ain't near as bad as back in '97!"


----------



## philoctetes

Looks like it will peak about 3-4 short of the big one in 86, when residents had to be rescued by Coast Guard. Downtown Gville is probably 6 feet deep right now.


----------



## CnC Bartok

In the light of the ensuing posts, apologies for my triviality earlier.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Saw my first bumble bee of the year today - I'm hoping that she and other bees haven't emerged too soon, fooled by the spring-like conditions here.


----------



## Clouds Weep Snowflakes

Sunny in the morning, heavy rainfall during afternoon; no snow :<...


----------



## Dan Ante

KenOC said:


> In Guerneville the old-timers are already saying, "Ain't near as bad as back in '97!"


Oh Ken I thought you were an old timer


----------



## Luchesi

The protective RRR (Ridiculously Resilient Ridge) broke down a while ago and so Central CA will be hit again on Saturday and then again Tuesday etc.. The RRR won't build again until at least late in March. Not good.


----------



## philoctetes

This all I need to know it ain't over yet...

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> This all I need to know it ain't over yet...
> 
> https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-ft.html


Oh-oh. Looks like the old Pineapple Express.


----------



## philoctetes

Yeah I gotta get more stuff outta my house as soon as I can get back to it. Might look for a temporary rental.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Oh-oh. Looks like the old Pineapple Express.


Yes, that one and then two more before the middle of the month, the 2nd, 5th and 12th, but the models are often wrong.


----------



## Taggart

elgars ghost said:


> Saw my first bumble bee of the year today - I'm hoping that she and other bees haven't emerged too soon, fooled by the spring-like conditions here.


We did too. Trouble was, it had got _inside_ the house and and we had to shoo it out of the window.


----------



## CnC Bartok

Saw our first bumble bee last week. It seemed fascinated by the process of a human washing a car! Took a while to shoo it out of the boot in my case.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Not a day for outdoor activities, wet and dismal.


----------



## LezLee

Cloudy and much cooler today (7°). No bumblies here yet.


----------



## Clouds Weep Snowflakes

We had like 113mm of rain in one day!


----------



## Guest

elgars ghost said:


> Saw my first bumble bee of the year today - I'm hoping that she and other bees haven't emerged too soon, fooled by the spring-like conditions here.


I was observing a female blackbird in the garden gathering dried grass, for nest making! poor thing thinks Spring has sprung.


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

Oh no, snow...


----------



## KenOC

This is ridiculous. In the Sierras there is so much snow that ski resorts are closing down for a lot of reasons, including avalanche danger. Squaw Valley has had 557 inches of snow! And it keeps coming down, wave after wave. People are just digging and digging (see picture).

A big danger later in spring if warm rains arrive. The reservoirs can never hold that much runoff.


----------



## jasper01

Wow, glad I don't live in the Sierras. I thought Northern Ontario had a severe winter. We have more snow on the ground March 4 than I have ever seen and this morning it is -20C. Spring coming?


----------



## Luchesi

A dangerous looking setup for tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma for Tuesday the 12th. Hopefully it won't get warm enough yet for a widespread breakout.


----------



## Room2201974

Luchesi said:


> A dangerous looking setup for tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma for Tuesday the 12th. Hopefully it won't get warm enough yet for a widespread breakout.


Tuesday the 12th?


----------



## philoctetes

Luchesi said:


> A dangerous looking setup for tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma for Tuesday the 12th. Hopefully it won't get warm enough yet for a widespread breakout.


Biographical note: I grew up in tornado alley, not far from Moore OK which has been wiped out twice by recent F5s. My father worked at the airbase where the Extreme Weather HQ is stationed now. Was there in 2011 when an F3 passed through. Legend has it that a local riverbed steers them away from my old hood.


----------



## philoctetes

Almost done cleaning up the flood damage. Water got 9 feet deep on my street. Some river hoods are even lower and got it worse. 

It's been almost two weeks of work dealing with the before and after. Doesn't look like we'll get much help without federal support. After clearing out all this toxic debris we're being told to transport it ourselves to a central collection site. The local dump is not waiving fees. 

I cannot wait to get out of California, it's all I think about now.


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> This is ridiculous. In the Sierras there is so much snow that ski resorts are closing down for a lot of reasons, including avalanche danger. Squaw Valley has had 557 inches of snow! And it keeps coming down, wave after wave. People are just digging and digging (see picture).
> 
> A big danger later in spring if warm rains arrive. The reservoirs can never hold that much runoff.


I expect to hear about the first spring high water casualty sometime by mid April... the first hot spell will bring this down with a vicious wrath... summer hikers falling into the water - I've almost been one of them..

Back when I ran river trips I would make it most emphatic that the most dangerous part of it was getting in and out of the boat. People would just laugh and then learn the hard way.


----------



## Luchesi

Room2201974 said:


> Tuesday the 12th?


We can't have much confidence until 48 hrs before.

The center of the energy will be moving from Texas to 200 miles northeast of the Great Lakes by Friday the 15th. Very fast. So spring is coming quickly at 20,000 ft.


----------



## philoctetes

the new normal - spring floods

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/climate/climate-change-flooding.html


----------



## Luchesi

philoctetes said:


> the new normal - spring floods
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/climate/climate-change-flooding.html


Since the planet has been retaining a little more energy the result has been a slight longitudinal shift in the average cold season precipitation in the US. The storm systems at 20,000 ft get a slight boost to the east as they advect across the continent. So, the precipitation which usually was spread across the US is falling more to the east.

We're not complaining down here south of Colorado, because wintery blasts mostly miss us now to the east, and the mountain ski resorts are still getting enough snow (probably more because it's warmer).


----------



## atsizat

Google temperature readings are stupidly off in many places in Turkey. Both in the west and the east of the country. Looks like Google pulls numbers out of its a*s.

The difference gets as high as 10°C in the west and 13°C in the east between Google and official weather station.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Heavy rain forecast for this afternoon, shouldn't need to fill the birdbath for a few days.


----------



## Dan Ante

Our rain is not at all heavy just little drops as big as a match head .. .. ..


----------



## joen_cph

Springtime at Bispebjerg here in Copenhagen. Once again, warmer temperatures than normally, and generally wettier in March. Unexpectedly, a new alley of cherries in a cemetery park, a bit out in the suburbs, has become a traditional outing place for locals and tourists celebrating springtime. In quite large numbers ...


----------



## atsizat

27.8°C and sunny where I live, as of 4:17 pm


----------



## KenOC

Just the lightest, slightest sprinkles from time to time today. I think our so-called "rainy season" is about over. But there's plenty of snow in the Sierras, so nobody's too concerned about the water situation for the rest of this year.


----------



## jenspen

Almost 9pm and it's 20.3 °C. Forecast for Wednesday is "25 °C Cloudy. Medium chance of showers. Light winds" - a welcome forecast for a gardener. 

We've had a very hot, dry summer and the dams are running low. Still 147 mm short of the average rainfall to the end of April.


----------



## atsizat

The high was 27.9°C both today and yesterday in my city.


----------



## Ingélou

It was dreary, rainy & cold in seaside Norfolk today, after a lovely sunny start to the week. 

And it's due to be dreary, rainy and cold in seaside Norfolk tomorrow, just when we have several sets of viewers coming to look round our house. 

I'm getting the feeling that someone up there doesn't want us to move house...


----------



## Larkenfield

Ingélou said:


> It was dreary, rainy & cold in seaside Norfolk today, after a lovely sunny start to the week.
> 
> And it's due to be dreary, rainy and cold in seaside Norfolk tomorrow, just when we have several sets of viewers coming to look round our house.
> 
> I'm getting the feeling that someone up there doesn't want us to move house...


Every cloud has a silver lining with a sold to the highest bidder sign.


----------



## Dan Ante

Cold nights, frosty mornings followed by glorious sunny days @ C17-C19deg just right for outside work :cheers:


----------



## Luchesi

Dan Ante said:


> Cold nights, frosty mornings followed by glorious sunny days @ C17-C19deg just right for outside work :cheers:


You probably see the bottom of the Galaxy.


----------



## Dan Ante

Luchesi said:


> You probably see the bottom of the Galaxy.


If only ............


----------



## joen_cph

Generally a warmer spring than average, as it has been the tendency in later years, up to 20 degrees Celsius.
But in the last couple of days we've had cold nights and surprisingly, here on the 4th of May, a bit of heavy snow in the morning, amidst all the greenery and blossoming. 

Temperatures will go up to around 10 C again later today, however.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Generally a warmer spring than average, as it has been the tendency in later years, up to 20 degrees Celsius.
> But in the last couple of days we've had cold nights and surprisingly, here on the 4th of May, a bit of heavy snow in the morning, amidst all the greenery and blossoming.
> 
> Temperatures will go up to around 10 C again later today, however.


The waves seem more energetic in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. More energy means larger than normal swings in temperature.

What's "normal"?


----------



## Luchesi

Dan Ante said:


> If only ............


Yes, but you can see the Great Attractor. I'm jealous.


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> The waves seem more energetic in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. More energy means larger than normal swings in temperature.
> 
> What's "normal"?


I don't have the big picture with all its specific details, but am just referring to my own, general experiences and the reports and analytical outlines in the media here. But a bit of snow in May isn't common here, and the landscape is now already pretty summerly.


----------



## Dan Ante

Luchesi said:


> Yes, but you can see the Great Attractor. I'm jealous.


You have PM.................


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> I don't have the big picture with all its specific details, but am just referring to my own, general experiences and the reports and analytical outlines in the media here. But a bit of snow in May isn't common here, and the landscape is now already pretty summerly.


Yes, I think that cold air came straight down from the north due to the coincidental shape of that wave as it cycled through the end of its lifespan. I think your cold air usually comes in from the west or the northwest.


----------



## KenOC

joen_cph said:


> I don't have the big picture with all its specific details, but am just referring to my own, general experiences and the reports and analytical outlines in the media here. But a bit of snow in May isn't common here, and the landscape is now already pretty summerly.


All this talk about "waves" is nonsense. Joen_cph is having unseasonably cold and stormy weather because Boreas, God of Winter, is angry that joen_cph's people have not made sufficient offerings to Persephone, Goddess of Spring and fertile growth. Simple as that!

If there are any virgins around, a sacrifice might be a good idea.


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> Yes, I think that cold air came straight down from the north due to the coincidental shape of that wave as it cycled through the end of its lifespan. I think your cold air usually comes in from the west or the northwest.


That's true, long-lasting winds coming the West /the ocean also often means clouds here, whereas at least in summer, Eastern winds are often associated with warm weather and sunny skies.


----------



## joen_cph

KenOC said:


> All this talk about "waves" is nonsense. Joen_cph is having unseasonably cold and stormy weather because Boreas, God of Winter, is angry that joen_cph's people have not made sufficient offerings to Persephone, Goddess of spring and fertile growth. Simple as that!
> 
> If there are any virgins around, a sacrifice might be a good idea.


Luckily, the gods responsible for weather here have much less of a bad temper, than some of the gods residing in other regions ... a bit of fine local aquavit poured on the ground might do the trick, with a bit of patience, it's being said.


----------



## Ingélou

Ingélou said:


> It was dreary, rainy & cold in seaside Norfolk today, after a lovely sunny start to the week.
> 
> And it's due to be dreary, rainy and cold in seaside Norfolk tomorrow, just when we have several sets of viewers coming to look round our house.
> 
> I'm getting the feeling that someone up there doesn't want us to move house...


Yesterday, as predicted - cold, dreary, rainy - but with the added bonus of regular hailstorms.

Today - a little overcast at times, but mainly sunny, and not as cold.

Grrrrrrrr!


----------



## Harmonie

The weather has ranged from decent to good most of the recent days. That's a bit of a shock because usually May is just heat, humidity and frightening severe storms. There have been some storms, but usually they don't usher in nice weather, it just stays hot and humid.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> All this talk about "waves" is nonsense. Joen_cph is having unseasonably cold and stormy weather because Boreas, God of Winter, is angry that joen_cph's people have not made sufficient offerings to Persephone, Goddess of Spring and fertile growth. Simple as that!
> 
> If there are any virgins around, a sacrifice might be a good idea.


His weather formed weeks ago on the other side of the planet and persisted long enough to reach him. The gods can do that. All we humans can do is watch helplessly.


----------



## Luchesi

Harmonie said:


> The weather has ranged from decent to good most of the recent days. That's a bit of a shock because usually May is just heat, humidity and frightening severe storms. There have been some storms, but usually they don't usher in nice weather, it just stays hot and humid.


In the southeastern US storms typically result from either planetary waves or the warm sunshine. If it's a wave you'll get the "decent" weather behind it. ..But the storms from sunshine are rarely dangerous, so there's that..


----------



## atsizat

I bought Baldr remote sensor thermometer but it takes hours to measure the outside themperature. I am not content with the device. It needs to be outside for like 3 hours. The reading is so slowly changing when taken to a different temperature. Why so? I talked about it with the dealer. He said he would resend a new sensor.


----------



## atsizat

Even though, it'd been outside for 3 hours, it could not drop to below 13.3°C when the the official weather station was 12°C in the city ( the city center is in 4 km distance)


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> Even though, it'd been outside for 3 hours, it could not drop to below 13.3°C when the the official weather station was 12°C in the city ( the city center is in 4 km distance)


If you buy two more very inexpensive thermometers you can start keeping records of what they all three read. You'll begin to see a pattern which you can then continuously check.


----------



## KenOC

atsizat said:


> Even though, it'd been outside for 3 hours, it could not drop to below 13.3°C when the the official weather station was 12°C in the city ( the city center is in 4 km distance)


I have two pretty reliable thermometers that regularly differ 3 degrees F between my front yard and back. The difference reverses between morning and afternoon, and the sun hits neither thermometer. It seems to be just a matter of the varying sun exposures and angles heating the ambient air differently. If there's much of a breeze, the difference goes away.


----------



## atsizat

The high was 34.1*C in my city on Monday.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> The high was 34.1*C in my city on Monday.


Long ago I remember thinking at work, if humans can't tell the difference between a degree or two in temperature why are we expected to forecast the differences?


----------



## atsizat

Inside temperature is 26*C at about 4 am. Outside is cooler but I keep windows close to avoid flying insects at nights when lights are on. 26*C is really hot as the room temperature.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> Long ago I remember thinking at work, if humans can't tell the difference between a degree or two in temperature why are we expected to forecast the differences?


What do you mean by that?


----------



## atsizat

I had a plan of going to Yakutsk in winter. After searching the price of going and coming back airplane tickets, I canceled this plan. Just airplane cost is 5 times bigger than the monthly minumum wage salary in Turkey.


----------



## philoctetes

3-month outlook, sunny and warm on the coast...









https://w2.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php


----------



## Luchesi

philoctetes said:


> 3-month outlook, sunny and warm on the coast...
> 
> View attachment 120112
> 
> 
> https://w2.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php


 Since the planetary wave number has gone from 6 to 8 down to 5 to 7 waves they circle the planet more slowly. In the US we've been under a long wave trough and it won't move east until the middle of July. This results in slightly cooler temperatures and a lot of rain and flooding in the middle of the continent.

The departure from normal temperatures won't be felt by people, but the chart is something for weather forecasters to keep in the back of their minds.


----------



## atsizat

Where I live, as of 2:21 pm:

Actual Temperature: 30.1°C
Humidity: 64%

Heat Index: 33.9°C

I calculate heat index here. You need it when you live in a humid city.

https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_heatindex?

Edit:

Actual temperature became 31.3°C at 60% humidity now.

Current heat index is 35.5°C. Damn!


----------



## Art Rock

Today is quite comfortable, but predictions for the end of the coming week are around 40 degrees Centigrade. Temperatures above 30 are rare here (probably 10 days per year), and we are not equipped for such a heat wave (e.g. almost no-one has aircon).


----------



## atsizat

Art Rock said:


> Today is quite comfortable, but predictions for the end of the coming week are around 40 degrees Centigrade. Temperatures above 30 are rare here (probably 10 days per year), and we are not equipped for such a heat wave (e.g. almost no-one has aircon).


Most of the people dont have aircon where I live either. Average highs in July and August are around 30°C. And it is humid. Heat index high would probably average 3°C hotter 

Actual temperatures till 34s are common in Summer. Highs of 35°C and above are not common.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/İzmit


----------



## Luchesi

Art Rock said:


> Today is quite comfortable, but predictions for the end of the coming week are around 40 degrees Centigrade. Temperatures above 30 are rare here (probably 10 days per year), and we are not equipped for such a heat wave (e.g. almost no-one has aircon).


We're usually 38c most of the days of June, with only 10 percent relative humidity. But this year a slow moving long wave is keeping us a few degrees cooler. As it moves east in late July we'll have higher than normal temperatures into August, and people will start complaining to us during project briefings. Oh joy! I have to remain respectful to the VIPs, they come from up north and complain, complain!


----------



## Luchesi

Art Rock said:


> Today is quite comfortable, but predictions for the end of the coming week are around 40 degrees Centigrade. Temperatures above 30 are rare here (probably 10 days per year), and we are not equipped for such a heat wave (e.g. almost no-one has aircon).


Yes, the cool air will stop and rotate to your northwest allowing hot air to move up to where you are from the southwest. By the 2nd of July the cool air will be north of you and moving east. The winds behind it will reach far enough south to cool you off, according to the models..


----------



## atsizat

In July, I will go to Southeastern Turkey near Syria Border to experience temps like 46, 47. It will be very dry heat with heat index being lower than actual temp, though.


----------



## atsizat

This is the place where I will go in July. For this wednesday and thursday, official forecast highs are 45°C and all the 5 days, forecast high does not go any colder than 42°C. And we are in June.

https://www.mgm.gov.tr/tahmin/il-ve-ilceler.aspx?il=Şırnak&ilce=Cizre

In July, it is going to hit 47°C or maybe 48°C.

What is strange about this kinda climates is, even though every year, the temp can hit 47°C, all time record high is only 2°C hotter in about 60 year history.

This is what is strange about this kinda climates. Temps are all alike in summer. It is strange when a climate hits 47°C every summer but could also set 49°C all time record high in about 60 year history. 2°C hotter than what it can do every summer.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> This is the place where I will go in July. For this wednesday and thursday, official forecast highs are 45°C and all the 5 days, forecast high does not go any colder than 42°C. And we are in June.
> 
> https://www.mgm.gov.tr/tahmin/il-ve-ilceler.aspx?il=Şırnak&ilce=Cizre
> 
> In July, it is going to hit 47°C or maybe 48°C.
> 
> What is strange about this kinda climates is, even though every year, the temp can hit 47°C, all time record high is only 2°C hotter in about 60 year history.
> 
> This is what is strange about this kinda climates. Temps are all alike in summer. It is strange when a climate hits 47°C every summer but could also set 49°C all time record high in about 60 year history. 2°C hotter than what it can do every summer.


Yes, all the elements are there for a very hot dry summer. Low latitude, low elevation, storms from the north are cut off by the strength of the sun, no moisture source from a warm body of water. Therefore temperatures reach almost the maximum every year. Few variables.

"... but could also set 49°C all time record high in about 60 year history. 2°C hotter than what it can do every summer."

That depends upon the starting temperatures in the morning, and the flow in the lower layers. And those patterns depend upon complicated coincidences. So not every year. It will take a while before the planet heats up enough to achieve those record-breaking temperatures every year.


----------



## atsizat

27.8°C at 42% humidity as of 2:08 pm

Dewpoint: 13.7°C


----------



## atsizat

31°C at 37% humidity as of 2:14 pm.

Dewpoint: 14.6°C


----------



## KenOC

Very cool summer here so far. We've used the A/C for only a few days, and now high temps are showing around 80F (27C) for the next week. Hey, this is July!

I'm certainly not complaining.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Very cool summer here so far. We've used the A/C for only a few days, and now high temps are showing around 80F (27C) for the next week. Hey, this is July!
> 
> I'm certainly not complaining.


The long wave (at 30k ft) that gave most of the country a noticeably cool June will be moving east of the US by the 10th of July. Will it be replaced quickly by another wave? Probably not for a few weeks at least.

With the warming planet and the extra energy - waves are able to resist the return of the Sun in late spring. This is quite on unintuitive. AGW giving us cooler Junes? We need to think in terms of energy not a few degrees in temperature.

Over the past decade, the rate is 8 x 10^21 Joules per year, or 2.5 x 10^14 Joules per second. The yield of the Hiroshima atomic bomb was 6.3 x 10^13 Joules, hence the rate of global heat accumulation is equivalent to about 4 Hiroshima bomb detonations per second. 
The data - Nuccitelli et al. (2012).


----------



## atsizat

32.2°C at 49% humidity as of 3:54 pm

Heat Index: 34.5°C


----------



## atsizat

The high was 32.6°C yesterday.

Heat Index must have reached 35°C with humidity.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> The high was 32.6°C yesterday.
> 
> Heat Index must have reached 35°C with humidity.


We're 39 C every day now unless the wind at 15,000 feet shifts. The humidity here is about 20%. People who have water coolers for their house can only expect to get 31 C out of them -- and that's if they're running perfectly and efficiently. You can't change the laws of physics.
It becomes a health problem.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> We're 39 C every day now unless the wind at 15,000 feet shifts. The humidity here is about 20%. People who have water coolers for their house can only expect to get 31 C out of them -- and that's if they're running perfectly and efficiently. You can't change the laws of physics.
> It becomes a health problem.


2 weeks later, I am flying to the hottest place of the country


----------



## KenOC

Not weather, but...we just had a major earthquake, prelim estimate is 6.6. Quite a ways north of where I live, but it shook pretty good here and was a bit scary. When this happens, I always wonder if the shaking will get worse, if it's only a foreshock, etc. 

Added: Revised down to mag 6.4. No damage reports yet. Epicenter was in a sparsely inhabited area.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Not weather, but...we just had a major earthquake, prelim estimate is 6.6. Quite a ways north of where I live, but it shook pretty good here and was a bit scary. When this happens, I always wonder if the shaking will get worse, if it's only a foreshock, etc.
> 
> Added: Revised down to mag 6.4. No damage reports yet. Epicenter was in a sparsely inhabited area.


iCloud is down nationwide too.

https://9to5mac.com/2019/07/04/icloud-services-down/?pushup=1


----------



## KenOC

Earthquake update: That was SoCal’s biggest earthquake in 20 years. No known deaths or serious injuries. However, in the small town of Ridgecrest near the epicenter, emergency officials have responded to nearly two dozen incidents including people needing medical assistance and structure fires. The mayor said fires have broken out, gas lines have been damaged and debris has fallen off some buildings around the city. There have been over a hundred measurable aftershocks, but nothing threatening further damage.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Earthquake update: That was SoCal's biggest earthquake in 20 years. No known deaths or serious injuries. However, in the small town of Ridgecrest near the epicenter, emergency officials have responded to nearly two dozen incidents including people needing medical assistance and structure fires. The mayor said fires have broken out, gas lines have been damaged and debris has fallen off some buildings around the city. There have been over a hundred measurable aftershocks, but nothing threatening further damage.


That's good news. And all the pets knew what to do..


----------



## KenOC

25 minutes ago I was just sitting down to a nice hot bowl of clam chowder and...another earthquake. This seems to have been in the same area of Eastern California, near Ridgecrest, as the "big one" there a couple of days ago which was a 6.4, California's biggest in 20 years. Tonight's is being reported as a 7.1. That's a serious earthquake!

Good thing this is happening a ways away from urban areas.

Added: Tonight's earthquake was knocked down to a 6.9 but then raised back to a 7.1.


----------



## CnC Bartok

Hope very much that is the worst of it over and done with, Ken.


----------



## atsizat

The high reached 34.3°C a couple of days ago in my city, which is the hottest temp of the year so far. Yesterday's high was a little cooler, 33.4°C.


----------



## atsizat

The hottest high of July was 34.3°C on Monday and the coldest high of July was 22.1°C on Thursday in the city. They occured in 3 days.


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## atsizat

Sun hasn't showed its ugly face today. The temperature is 22.6°C in the city. Cloudy. It past 2 pm. I slept at a higher elevated part of the city. It was a cool nice night to sleep with the window open at house.

There is 5 days left for me to go to the extreme heat. I'll be in the hottest place of the country near the syria border 5 days later. I wonder if I see one of those. They live in dry extreme heat.


----------



## atsizat

Current temperature is 38.8°C as of 4:06 pm. I am in the hottest place of the country, near the syria border.


----------



## joen_cph

A hot day here in Ramberg, Lofoten, Norway & North of the Arctic Circle. At least 22 C, but can be felt as rather too hot in the Sun. Bathers at the other end of the bay.


----------



## atsizat

While I was flying to the hottest place of the country earlier today. There is no clouds in this part of country. I am near the Syria border.


----------



## atsizat

The high was 39.6°C today. Currently 31.5°C at 23% humidity as of 10:51 pm. Too warm for this time of day.

Forecast high for 22nd July is 46°C.


----------



## atsizat

Enjoying the dry extreme heat. Earlier today, it was 43.6°C.

It is 41.8°C currently as of 5:51 pm ( 11% humidity) but I dont feel hot any more with the low humidity and the sun that lost its power at this time of day.

Edit:

It is 33.3°C here as of 10:18 pm ( 18% humidity)

The high was 43.9°C and the low was 24.7°C today here.


----------



## atsizat

It is currently 44.2°C here as of 3:57 pm.

Humidity: 11%


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## starthrower

Looking forward to some cooler weather tomorrow. The last few days have been extremely hot and humid. Monday will be a comfortable 75 degrees.


----------



## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> Looking forward to some cooler weather tomorrow. The last few days have been extremely hot and humid. Monday will be a comfortable 75 degrees.


What's notable is that it wasn't a hot set up. But the Eastern US hardly ever gets a hot set up because of the configuration of the continent (unlike Western Europe and other regions in Asia, Australia). If and when it does, look out! 
As the Eastern US cools until about the 26th, the West will bake.

Every summer we get this warning but people will tell me, "Oh, it's just weather". If you ask them what they mean by that, they get a little perturbed.


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> ...As the Eastern US cools until about the 26th, the West will bake.


Yup, the forecast says low 90s mid-week, and the humidity maybe a bit higher than I'd like. So far, though, it's been a notably cool summer.


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## atsizat

Humidity was 14% at that moment, not 11%.

I gotta correct it. Because that 3% difference makes a good difference when it comes to dewpoints


----------



## starthrower

I live 30 miles southeast of Lake Ontario. The weather here changes constantly. Extremes are the norm. Moderate weather which everyone wants is the exception.


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## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> I live 30 miles southeast of Lake Ontario. The weather here changes constantly. Extremes are the norm. Moderate weather which everyone wants is the exception.


While searching for a house to buy in Niagara Falls, NY I lived down on 1st Street which is very close to the Falls and the roar can really get on your nerves! I thought I remembered being there when they shut off the water, but I must've dreamt it.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...moment-iconic-waterfall-came-standstilll.html


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## starthrower

I live in Syracuse. Not much good weather here. Humid in summer and long snowy winters. I should've left years ago. Now it's too expensive to move anywhere with nice weather not to mention too many people.


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## atsizat

42.4°C at 16% humidity as of 2:09 pm.

Highs in my location during my stay:

19th July: 39.6°C
20th July: 43.9°C
21st July: 45.0°C

Today is my 4th day. Yesterday's high was 45.0°C.


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## Strange Magic

Weather X Time = Climate. Warmest June ever, says NOAA.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49040058


----------



## atsizat

My indoor temperature is 37°C currently.


----------



## Guest

Last year was the year for extreme heat here on the California Central Coast. This year it has been mercifully cool, so far. The heat went elsewhere. It will be a relatively warm day today, at 27 C.


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## atsizat

It is 9:30 pm here. Outside temperature is 35°C at this time of day.


----------



## joen_cph

Ouch ...... that's inconveniently hot, IMHO.

Here in Lofoten, at the height of summer, one will still see enclaves of wintery snow on the cliffsides, even at 50 m above sea level, provided they have shade all day. Temperatures often tend to be pleasant, 15-20 degrees, and there are almost 24 hours of daylight. Lots of wind today, though, and some rain and cloudiness in the morning. Wind is mostly coming from the North in July-August, I would have thought from the West like in Denmark. But today it came from the South.


----------



## Krummhorn

Luchesi said:


> . . . As the Eastern US cools until about the 26th, the West will bake.


Southern Arizona always 'bakes' from mid May through well into October. Normal temps are in the low 100's (F), and 84 at night.

I got out of church yesterday at 10:30am and it was already 94 (F) outside!

The monsoon season is getting a late start here ... today we got a few sprinkles, just enough to get a clean car very dirty.

Kh


----------



## atsizat

I took this photo during the day time. My thermometer showed 43°C in the shade.









Official weather station was 42.1°C at that moment. Today's official high has been 42.5°C. However, yesterday's official high was 45.0°C.


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## atsizat

Highs in my current location ( Cizre) during my stay:

1st day: 39.6°C
2nd day: 43.9°C
3rd day: 45.0°C ( yesterday)
4th day: 42.5°C ( today)

And the lows for those days:

1st day: 24.6°C
2nd day: 24.7°C
3rd day: 26.1°C ( yesterday)
4th day: 25.4°C ( today)

I came here in the afternoon on 19th July. Today is my 4th day.


----------



## atsizat

My indoor temperature is currently 36°C. It is almost 10 pm.


----------



## Merl

I'm just hoping to see the sun. We only see it once a year up here in Scotland.


----------



## Taggart

Merl said:


> I'm just hoping to see the sun. We only see it once a year up here in Scotland.


Two seasons - June and Winter and the Glasgow Fair's in July


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## atsizat

41°C here at 14% humidity as of 2:40 pm


----------



## CnC Bartok

Taggart said:


> Two seasons - June and Winter and the Glasgow Fair's in July


The statistics which were bandied about during the (first) Scottish Independence referendum were that if Scotland left, the UK's life expectancy would increase, and the number of rainy days would decrease. While pedantically correct........:angel:


----------



## elgar's ghost

Needed to get a jar of coffee so I went the long way round for half an hour in order to stretch my legs - it's reaching the sort of temperature where the warmth would really start to sap my strength if I was walking about for much longer. As of now it's 32 deg. C here in landlocked Worcestershire and humid with it.


----------



## CnC Bartok

It's 32 here in sunny Oxfordshire too, but the humidity ain't bad, so it seems survivable. Off to France tomorrow, long drive south, and temperatures well over 40 expected for the trip. 

Looking forward to watching birds flying across the sky and spontaneously combusting.......


----------



## elgar's ghost

^
^

I gather on this occasion we can thank the French for their warm air drifting north. Is all this to do with the sirocco or something?


----------



## CnC Bartok

^^^ I think that on this occasion we ought to be blaming/thanking the Africans!


----------



## Luchesi

CnC Bartok said:


> ^^^ I think that on this occasion we ought to be blaming/thanking the Africans!


You're reminding me of a chemist who came down from the University of Utah with the team on one of our projects a few years ago. He said he'd always been interested in weather as a hobby but he wanted to learn more about the general scientific foundation for various weather conditions.

He was also a musician so we started out talking about his general foundational approach to music. Chords in the circle of fifths while some unrelated chords sound good because of the preparation for them in the melody.

In chemistry it's the the atomic structure and the periodic table, ..was there something like that explaining (categorizing) what happens in weather outside your window? 
He didn't have much to do until the data was downlinked and so for a few days we spent a lot of time together in my chart room.
I learned that interested people will come across the universally applicable basics of music and those of chemistry - but weather? How does a chemist keep in mind a correctly reduced concept of various weather conditions. That's what we struggled with. It was a crash course. He got it and he went home too start to keep a more relevant set of records, and he does email me about them occasionally.

My point is, all questions about weather can be answered with a little bit of study, but as with other large subjects you need to learn the relevance of the breakthrough discoveries which explain everything.


----------



## Art Rock

Today the temperature here will be in the 35 deg.C range, which usually happens once a year or so. Tomorrow will be 38-40 deg.C, with a >50% chance that the long-time record highest temperature measured in the Netherlands (38.6 deg.C, 1944) will be broken. Sub-30 temperatures predicted from Sunday onward.


----------



## CnC Bartok

Well, we had a decent storm last night, bit of thunder and lightning, so today won't be quite as hot, 28 or 29. Seems it's going to be no more than 23 or 24 for the next couple of weeks.

Consistent 33 to 34 down in Aix-en-Provence, lovely! But 40 to 42 for the drive down. Do cars melt? :angel:


----------



## Jacck

CnC Bartok said:


> Well, we had a decent storm last night, bit of thunder and lightning, so today won't be quite as hot, 28 or 29. Seems it's going to be no more than 23 or 24 for the next couple of weeks.
> 
> Consistent 33 to 34 down in Aix-en-Provence, lovely! But 40 to 42 for the drive down. Do cars melt? :angel:


Cars probably don't melt, but I would not leave my collection of CD's in a car parked in direct sun with 40°C. But the storms are a danger. I was caught in a car in a storm this year with hails or ice pellets. They were only small and did not do any damage, but if they are bigger ....


----------



## CnC Bartok

^^^ Not sure if the paintwork effect on that will catch on. Scars to be proud of, though!


----------



## Art Rock

Art Rock said:


> Today the temperature here will be in the 35 deg.C range, which usually happens once a year or so. Tomorrow will be 38-40 deg.C, with a >50% chance that the long-time record highest temperature measured in the Netherlands (38.6 deg.C, 1944) will be broken. Sub-30 temperatures predicted from Sunday onward.


Yup, the new record is 39.3 deg.C. After 75 years. The new record may possibly last only one day, as tomorrow is predicted to be hotter than today..... :devil:


----------



## Krummhorn

Merl said:


> I'm just hoping to see the sun. We only see it once a year up here in Scotland.


:lol: ... around these parts we only have two seasons: summer ... and ... SUMMER


----------



## Art Rock

Art Rock said:


> Yup, the new record is 39.3 deg.C. After 75 years. The new record may possibly last only one day, as tomorrow is predicted to be hotter than today..... :devil:


Indeed, with 40.7 deg.C today the record lasted about 24 hours.....


----------



## Strange Magic

Latest study shows more warm weather is the new normal:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49086783


----------



## atsizat

I returned to my own place after spending 5 days, near the syria border with highs that get as hot as 45°C.


Currently 32.5°C at 44% humidity as of 3:12 pm where I normally live.

Dewpoint: 18.6°C


----------



## Dorsetmike

Krummhorn said:


> :lol: ... around these parts we only have two seasons: summer ... and ... SUMMER


Does that mean some 're hotter than others


----------



## starthrower

I'm looking forward to fall. I don't dig the hot weather.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Much cooler this week and more pleasant to walk about in as a result. I went for a three and a half mile walk earlier and at a faster pace than usual - had I tried that this time last week I would probably have been crawling up that country road like a wounded bloodhound after half an hour.


----------



## Roger Knox

If July 2019 has been the hottest in recorded history, then ...


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> If July 2019 has been the hottest in recorded history, then ...


a small meteor will cause a large splat


----------



## KenOC

Here in SoCal where I live, we're looking forward to some days of above-average temps, but nothing extreme. Overall, the summer has been less warm than usual so far, a nice thing. We keep the fans running and avoid the A/C, which can run up a sizable electric bill!


----------



## atsizat

26.7°C at 44% humidity as of 3:12 pm

Dewpoint: 13.4°C


----------



## Merl

We've had some horrific rain in Fife this week. Today felt like the days before Rapture. The rain storm on the way to Dundee was scary and the roads were slippery as hell. At one point I was considering building an ark. On the plus side we got to go in our favourite eating place in Dundee, the superb Ticketty Boos. Their chilli is hot as hell (hotter than a vindaloo curry) and gorgeous.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Here in SoCal where I live, we're looking forward to some days of above-average temps, but nothing extreme. Overall, the summer has been less warm than usual so far, a nice thing. We keep the fans running and avoid the A/C, which can run up a sizable electric bill!


That's a luxury you have in a low humidity environment. My mother in NorCal has an exhaust fan in the ceiling of her house - at night she opens windows and turns that on, and cools down the house just right, no A/C. However, here in the South, there is no cooler air in the shade, no cooler air at night. The humidity means the only choices you have are muggy hot directly under the sun or muggy hot under shelter - the only difference being that you won't get a sunburn with the latter.


----------



## KenOC

DrMike said:


> That's a luxury you have in a low humidity environment. My mother in NorCal has an exhaust fan in the ceiling of her house - at night she opens windows and turns that on, and cools down the house just right, no A/C. However, here in the South, there is no cooler air in the shade, no cooler air at night. The humidity means the only choices you have are muggy hot directly under the sun or muggy hot under shelter - the only difference being that you won't get a sunburn with the latter.


Agree that a warm humid climate requires A/C, which not only cools but dehumidifies. When I lived in Hong Kong (an extreme example) we not only had A/C but, for the cooler but still-damp autumn season, rollabout dehumidifiers that had to be emptied of water several times each day. All the closets had electric tube heaters to help keep things dry...for much of the year, a walk down the street felt, after, like a fully-clothed warm shower.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Agree that a warm humid climate requires A/C, which not only cools but dehumidifies. When I lived in Hong Kong (an extreme example) we not only had A/C but, for the cooler but still-damp autumn season, rollabout dehumidifiers that had to be emptied of water several times each day. All the closets had electric tube heaters to help keep things dry...for much of the year, a walk down the street felt, after, like a fully-clothed warm shower.


For the last 5 years I have taken a week off each summer to take a troop of Boy Scouts to Scout camp - a prospect here in the South that is not so pleasant as my teenage years going to Scout camp in the Sierra Nevada mountains in NorCal. Now it is a week of perpetual sweat - whether sleeping in the heavy canvas tents, or in my hammock, there is no evading the heat. Take a shower, dry yourself off, and you are wet again before you get your clothes back on. Your towel remains damp the whole week. And, also given that it is the South, rain storms are frequent, bringing yet higher humidity levels.


----------



## Totenfeier

Hazy, hot and humid here in the gently rolling Foothills of Northwestern North Carolina, USA (are we great again yet? Somebody go check...) - daytime highs hovering around 32 C with little rain in sight. As I age, my body's finding it harder to adjust to going from AC inside to heat outside, and vice versa - sometimes just being outside for as little as 10-15 minutes wears me out, depending on what I'm doing, and I stumble back inside and collapse until recovery sets in.


----------



## joen_cph

After a Norway trip and a bit of work, I've been on the island of Bornholm for a week, best late summer place in Denmark currently, with no torrential rain, typically 20-23 degrees and sunny with a breeze. They say it's going to rain a lot tomorrow morning though.

Some nice clouds above the fields the other day, the rocks there have a big collection of prehistoric carvings that are 3,000 years old.


----------



## Totenfeier

Hey - those look just like MY clouds!


----------



## Luchesi

Totenfeier said:


> Hey - those look just like MY clouds!


Yes, you can see the CCL (producing the same appearance of clouds across the globe). It's not a very good depiction of it, but the line is detectable.

The convective condensation level (CCL) shows us the height (this same height line over a large area) where air becomes saturated, lifted adiabatically due to buoyancy (dense air versus less dense). Often, the phenomenon is quite impressive. People ask why the clouds have such flat bottoms and why an imaginary line can be drawn among them?


----------



## Guest

Heat advisory today in my neck of the woods - clear skies and expected high of 98 degrees, with heat indices expected to get as high as 108 degrees. Currently at noon it is 95 with 52% humidity, and the heat index is, in fact, at 108. I'm staying inside.


----------



## Merl

Rain again. Le yawn.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> Heat advisory today in my neck of the woods - clear skies and expected high of 98 degrees, with heat indices expected to get as high as 108 degrees. Currently at noon it is 95 with 52% humidity, and the heat index is, in fact, at 108. I'm staying inside.


The 'interesting' thing to meteorologists is that you're not even under a hot pattern.

And it looks like for two weeks, at least, your temperatures will be held down, because there's a strong band of 30,000 foot winds south of the polar front which is evacuating the mass out of your high-pressure ridge.

This is small comfort because when you're hot you're hot! - (according to Jerry Reed - when you're hot you're hot song).


----------



## Luchesi

Merl said:


> Rain again. Le yawn.


I did some forecasting at RAF Mildenhall, but I would think that Scotland is even more challenging for a forecaster. You can see the rain events coming, but how do you ever explain the fast-changing pattern to someone who isn't looking at the charts?


----------



## atsizat

Hottest highs in Turkey today:


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> The 'interesting' thing to meteorologists is that you're not even under a hot pattern.
> 
> And it looks like for two weeks, at least, your temperatures will be held down, because there's a strong band of 30,000 foot winds south of the polar front which is evacuating the mass out of your high-pressure ridge.
> 
> This is small comfort because when you're hot you're hot! - (according to Jerry Reed - when you're hot you're hot song).


Our local meteorologist here - James Spann - is a bit of a celebrity in his own right. No other place I've lived has had a meteorologist with a celebrity status like his. But then, weather is a big thing here, particularly during tornado season. You'll get normal people staring at the TV screen trying to discern rotation patterns in radar images!


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> Our local meteorologist here - James Spann - is a bit of a celebrity in his own right. No other place I've lived has had a meteorologist with a celebrity status like his. But then, weather is a big thing here, particularly during tornado season. You'll get normal people staring at the TV screen trying to discern rotation patterns in radar images!


Spann says climo guys are being unscientific and then he gives us this;

We believe Earth and its ecosystems - created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence - are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth's climate system is no exception.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Spann says climo guys are being unscientific and then he gives us this;
> 
> We believe Earth and its ecosystems - created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence - are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth's climate system is no exception.


I knew I liked the guy!


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> I knew I liked the guy!


He doesn't hear disrespect in such bursts of emotion.


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> Spann says climo guys are being unscientific and then he gives us this;
> 
> We believe Earth and its ecosystems - created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence - are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth's climate system is no exception.


We don't have such forecast preachers over here, but I think that is a good thing.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> We don't have such forecast preachers over here, but I think that is a good thing.


Here where I live we have a Bible church on every corner. There's many more here than where I grew up, back east. I think they're a positive influence, as long as groups remain segregated in their groups. I don't know what the effect on behavior is behind closed doors. Good and bad I think.. Stories to live by.

I lived in Europe many years, it's very different. It seemed to be more about history than religion over there, so we don't have the recent historical negatives to live with.


----------



## joen_cph

I'd be interested to hear about possible Hindu, Buddhist, Islamic, Jewish and Shinto variants of forecast preachers, should they exist - but in brief summaries.

EDIT: I checked a bit about Islam and there were some inquiries on websites whether forecasting was to be considered forbidden magic like astrology. This was rejected, it is allowed on a scientific basis also according to Islamic scriptures.

But the mentioned unacquaintedness of mine with the phenomenon is also illustrated by the fact that I had temporarily forgotten about preachers talking of weather- or natural disasters as god-sent punishments etc.


----------



## Merl

Our atheist reporter here in Scotland (me) predicts that it will rain at some point today. 1% chance of seeing that shiny, round yellow thing in the sky.


----------



## elgar's ghost

CnC Bartok said:


> Well, we had a decent storm last night, bit of thunder and lightning, so today won't be quite as hot, 28 or 29. Seems it's going to be no more than 23 or 24 for the next couple of weeks.
> 
> Consistent 33 to 34 down in Aix-en-Provence, lovely! But 40 to 42 for the drive down. Do cars melt? :angel:


Hope you had a good time - welcome back to the deluge.


----------



## Guest

joen_cph said:


> We don't have such forecast preachers over here, but I think that is a good thing.


We should be clear here - I'm not sure where that quote comes from. But the guy is a meteorologist. He is on the news everyday, doing weather reports just like every other meteorologist. He travels around the greater Birmingham, Alabama area and visits elementary schools and teaches kids about clouds and weather patterns and basic meteorology. He isn't some evangelist preacher. His Instagram and Twitter feeds are loaded with gorgeous weather pictures (storms, sunrises, sunsets, twisters, etc.). *gasp* he also has personal opinions. I watch the guy daily and follow him on social media for weather updates - and Luchesi's posting of that quote from him (still would like to see his source) is the first I have ever heard of his religious beliefs. He is first and foremost a professional. I am a scientist and also a deeply religious individual. In my private life I share my religious beliefs. But when I am talking science, giving a scientific presentation, either in my lab or at a conference, I stick to the science. That quote from Luchesi is really deceptive and paints an unfair picture of Spann.


----------



## joen_cph

That sounds better to my ears.

EDIT: it's fairly easy to find political stances, criticism of climate change evidence, and the quote, by James Spann on the internet. The quote is in the Wiki article about him (usually it is possible to find a quote by just using the search function with a copy of it). It's a collective declaration he also signed.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> We should be clear here - I'm not sure where that quote comes from. But the guy is a meteorologist. He is on the news everyday, doing weather reports just like every other meteorologist. He travels around the greater Birmingham, Alabama area and visits elementary schools and teaches kids about clouds and weather patterns and basic meteorology. He isn't some evangelist preacher. His Instagram and Twitter feeds are loaded with gorgeous weather pictures (storms, sunrises, sunsets, twisters, etc.). *gasp* he also has personal opinions. I watch the guy daily and follow him on social media for weather updates - and Luchesi's posting of that quote from him (still would like to see his source) is the first I have ever heard of his religious beliefs. He is first and foremost a professional. I am a scientist and also a deeply religious individual. In my private life I share my religious beliefs. But when I am talking science, giving a scientific presentation, either in my lab or at a conference, I stick to the science. That quote from Luchesi is really deceptive and paints an unfair picture of Spann.


I was sent that in an email at work. Someone had suggested that those kind of quotes in briefings would give a layman's view of weather, a self-regulating planet and the dangers of weather. I get a lot of suggestions to make the boring briefings more captivating. There's two briefings a day for weeks before a project launch so the weather part of the briefing can get repetitive and tiresome. I don't think it was a serious suggestion. But whenever anyone mentions intelligent design people first think of childhood cancer, killer tornadoes and hurricanes, and devastating floods/droughts. So how is this helpful in a briefing?

On the other hand, my boss suggested I should talk about the heat of crystallization if I run out of new things to add, since it is what causes all our problems for launches and recoveries. He thought the chemists and physicists would be somewhat interested.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> I was sent that in an email at work. Someone had suggested that those kind of quotes in briefings would give a layman's view of weather, a self-regulating planet and the dangers of weather. I get a lot of suggestions to make the boring briefings more captivating. There's two briefings a day for weeks before a project launch so the weather part of the briefing can get repetitive and tiresome. I don't think it was a serious suggestion. But whenever anyone mentions intelligent design people first think of childhood cancer, killer tornadoes and hurricanes, and devastating floods/droughts. So how is this helpful in a briefing?
> 
> On the other hand, my boss suggested I should talk about the heat of crystallization if I run out of new things to add, since it is what causes all our problems for launches and recoveries. He thought the chemists and physicists would be somewhat interested.


I read the Wikipedia entry on him, and it mentions that and another quote. One of his quotes was in direct response to a Weather Channel meteorologist who made some kind of suggestion that those who didn't believe in AGW shouldn't be given the Seal of Approval by the AMS.

Like I said, if you simply follow the guy to know what the forecast is, or tune into him during severe weather situations (a common occurrence here) you get the weather, not his religious philosophy, or even his thoughts on AGW. He's a professional.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> I'd be interested to hear about possible Hindu, Buddhist, Islamic, Jewish and Shinto variants of forecast preachers, should they exist - but in brief summaries.
> 
> EDIT: I checked a bit about Islam and there were some inquiries on websites whether forecasting was to be considered forbidden magic like astrology. This was rejected, it is allowed on a scientific basis also according to Islamic scriptures.
> 
> But the mentioned unacquaintedness of mine with the phenomenon is also illustrated by the fact that I had temporarily forgotten about preachers talking of weather- or natural disasters as god-sent punishments etc.


Where does the energy that drives the weather come from? The gods and goddesses of the world's religions? or is it so complicated that ancient people would have no chance of comprehending what drives the weather?

Imagine going back to the early days of any of those religions and talking about the collision resulting in the tilt of the Earth and such an improbable glancing blow sped up the rotation rate and allowed the long periods of darkness annually turning the poles very cold. You would blow their little minds. But our weather these many billions of years later is understandable to us in exactly these terms every day, as each of us looks out the window to see what the day has in store for us. I've been doing this since the 1970s and I'm still fascinated by the details and the complexities and the interest that people have in it, especially the weather hobbyists. They do a lot of what we do and they're not even getting paid. lol


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> I read the Wikipedia entry on him, and it mentions that and another quote. One of his quotes was in direct response to a Weather Channel meteorologist who made some kind of suggestion that those who didn't believe in AGW shouldn't be given the Seal of Approval by the AMS.
> 
> Like I said, if you simply follow the guy to know what the forecast is, or tune into him during severe weather situations (a common occurrence here) you get the weather, not his religious philosophy, or even his thoughts on AGW. He's a professional.


If with your evidence, you believe that with its infinite power an intelligent designer created a self-regulating, resilient, and self-correcting climate system, then that should be your scientific hypothesis. Your evidence needs to be reliable and repeatable, and scientists will try to falsify such a view of resilience and self-correction.


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> If with your evidence, you believe that with its infinite power an intelligent designer created a self-regulating, resilient, and self-correcting climate system, then that should be your scientific hypothesis. Your evidence needs to be reliable and repeatable, and scientists will try to falsify such a view of resilience and self-correction.


Faith is no friend of falsification.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> If with your evidence, you believe that with its infinite power an intelligent designer created a self-regulating, resilient, and self-correcting climate system, then that should be your scientific hypothesis. Your evidence needs to be reliable and repeatable, and scientists will try to falsify such a view of resilience and self-correction.


I'm not sure how his religious views have any bearing on his reporting the weather. He has his own views on AGW, but that really falls outside of his role as a meteorologist, and so you don't see him discussing it when giving the 1, 5, and 10 day forecasts, or when discussing which areas should expect strong winds, hail, or tornadoes, and which areas need to seek shelter.


----------



## joen_cph

Avoiding material such as overall changes, averages and the climate discussion can also be a strategy. On most channels, weather reporting is given plenty (too much) of time due to its entertainment value, with all sorts of relevant and irrelevant small stories being thrown in.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> I'm not sure how his religious views have any bearing on his reporting the weather. He has his own views on AGW, but that really falls outside of his role as a meteorologist, and so you don't see him discussing it when giving the 1, 5, and 10 day forecasts, or when discussing which areas should expect strong winds, hail, or tornadoes, and which areas need to seek shelter.


He has read about a god and believes that our climate system was set up to be resilient and self-correcting by that god. He's well-informed about meteorology and he tells his viewers that climatologists are wrong. He's now famous worldwide for saying it's been a money grab by people in the scientific field. We have nothing to worry about. You don't worry about climate change either? so it doesn't matter to you that climatology's not his field.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Avoiding material such as overall changes, averages and the climate discussion can also be a strategy. On most channels, weather reporting is given plenty (too much) of time due to its entertainment value, with all sorts of relevant and irrelevant small stories being thrown in.


Have you looked for climate change? What would you present? Your station would need to make money to pay salaries and production costs, so you need the eyeballs routinely tuning in. The problem is, it's very early in the warming so the situation is still quite technical (eyes glass over and change the channel).

But maybe you already have examples which need to be made accessible and emphasized? I have a few, but deniers will pounce on them, and so they should, because like I said it's very early in the warming. The field is mostly concerned with the acceleration of trends into the future.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> He has read about a god and believes that our climate system was set up to be resilient and self-correcting by that god. He's well-informed about meteorology and he tells his viewers that climatologists are wrong. He's now famous worldwide for saying it's been a money grab by people in the scientific field. We have nothing to worry about. You don't worry about climate change either? so it doesn't matter to you that climatology's not his field.


I don't get why you are insisting on blowing this out of proportion. I watch him all the time, and had no clue about his views on AGW. Until today. Are you upset he doesn't say it more? Are you saying he should? Do you think he should be punished professionally or something? Dissenting voices must be silenced?


----------



## Strange Magic

The sea of rhetorical questions.


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> Have you looked for climate change? What would you present? Your station would need to make money to pay salaries and production costs, so you need the eyeballs routinely tuning in. The problem is, it's very early in the warming so the situation is still quite technical (eyes glass over and change the channel).
> 
> But maybe you already have examples which need to be made accessible and emphasized? I have a few, but deniers will pounce on them, and so they should, because like I said it's very early in the warming. The field is mostly concerned with the acceleration of trends into the future.


The situation is very different in my country, and I think in most of mainland Europe. We have serious weathermen going into the debate also on TV and during broadcasting, and the state finances of the major 2 channels are more prominent, making programme policy more independent, less commercial. One of the most popular and well educated hosts has recently retired and became a public media climate activist. Scientifically, he's rather heavy-weight, with a big book production on his CV.

We have Greenland as an obvious example for debate, plus obvious changes in the weather conditions locally down here on the mainland too. The changes are being told about, but the reasons behind aren't being announced monolitically, there's debate and uncertainty factors involved too. However, there's much more consensus in Europe about the man-made factors. After our latest, recent elections, the last sceptical party, which is rather low-brow, had to give in and start formulating climate policy too, replacing their talk of "climate-craziness".

Due to geographical conditions, our politicians have to organize say protection against the already apparent increasing flooding of cities into their city planning (there's been much more rain), so public discussion is simply necessary, not at least regarding our capital. Add to this the official, ambitious CO2 reduction policies. All this has resulted in a lot of concrete measures and increased attention among the general public, concerning CO2 attitudes, travel modes, use of natural ressources, food and meat consumption, etc.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> I don't get why you are insisting on blowing this out of proportion. I watch him all the time, and had no clue about his views on AGW. Until today. Are you upset he doesn't say it more? Are you saying he should? Do you think he should be punished professionally or something? Dissenting voices must be silenced?


When weighing in with your expertise in a scientific debate you wouldn't broadcast that you have enormous faith and so there's no danger and that other experts are conniving for money. I would need some good evidence.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> The situation is very different in my country, and I think in most of mainland Europe. We have serious weathermen going into the debate also on TV and during broadcasting, and the state finances of the major 2 channels are more prominent, making programme policy more independent, less commercial. One of the most popular and well educated hosts has recently retired and became a public media climate activist. Scientifically, he's rather heavy-weight, with a big book production on his CV.
> 
> We have Greenland as an obvious example for debate, plus obvious changes in the weather conditions locally down here on the mainland too. The changes are being told about, but the reasons behind aren't being announced monolitically, there's debate and uncertainty factors involved too. However, there's much more consensus in Europe about the man-made factors. After our latest, recent elections, the last sceptical party, which is rather low-brow, had to give in and start formulating climate policy too, replacing their talk of "climate-craziness".
> 
> Due to geographical conditions, our politicians have to organize say protection against the already apparent increasing flooding of cities into their city planning (there's been much more rain), so public discussion is simply necessary, not at least regarding our capital. Add to this the official, ambitious CO2 reduction policies. All this has resulted in a lot of concrete measures and increased attention among the general public, concerning CO2 attitudes, travel modes, use of natural ressources, food and meat consumption, etc.


Thanks for giving us a view of what's going on.

I have to say that I haven't found any climate changes persisting beyond a year, or a year and a half, through the four seasons. We did get a big shock over the last few decades in the planetary wave number (I've mentioned before that it's been reduced from 7 to 9 down to 5 to 7). This has resulted in longer periods of drought and flooding, polar vortices which fall much farther south, and delays in the onset of seasons.

You can picture the global circulation as a bubbling cauldron, and so, any departures from 'normal' can be argued to be natural variations. No one has to explain these AND no one CAN convincingly explain these, anymore than we can predict the bubbles in a boiling pan of water. So the deniers will continue to have this for a few more decades.


----------



## joen_cph

(sorry, double posting) ...................


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> Thanks for giving us a view of what's going on.
> 
> *I have to say that I haven't found any climate changes persisting beyond a year, or a year and a half, through the four seasons. * We did get a big shock over the last few decades in the planetary wave number (I've mentioned before that it's been reduced from 7 to 9 down to 5 to 7). This has resulted in longer periods of drought and flooding, polar vortices which fall much farther south, and delays in the onset of seasons.
> 
> You can picture the global circulation as a bubbling cauldron, and so, any departures from 'normal' can be argued to be natural variations. No one has to explain these AND no one CAN convincingly explain these, anymore than we can predict the bubbles in a boiling pan of water. So the deniers will continue to have this for a few more decades.


I'm not quite sure what you are referring to, but one example is the otherwise desolate Svalbard.

Rising temperatures since at least 1980, the yearly average temperature has gone up 4 C. This includes all months of the year, winter months are up 7-8 C, summer months are up 2 C or more.

https://www.bjerknes.uib.no/en/article/news/svalbard-have-experienced-warming-4c-last-50-years
https://cms.met.no/site/2/klimaserv...albard-2100/_attachment/14428?_ts=169fd13ff23(such as p.8, 9, 51, 52, 126-131 etc.) 
https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/climate.html


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> I'm not quite sure what you are referring to, but one example is the otherwise desolate Svalbard.
> 
> Rising temperatures since at least 1980, the yearly average temperature has gone up 4 C. This includes all months of the year, winter months are up 7-8 C, summer months are up 2 C or more.
> 
> https://www.bjerknes.uib.no/en/article/news/svalbard-have-experienced-warming-4c-last-50-years
> https://cms.met.no/site/2/klimaserv...albard-2100/_attachment/14428?_ts=169fd13ff23(such as p.8, 9, 51, 52, 126-131 etc.)
> https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/climate.html


All that warming at Svalbard and has its climate changed? It's predicted to very soon.


----------



## joen_cph

It's pretty much in the report, with the prospects for 2100.


----------



## Clouds Weep Snowflakes

This summer in Jerusalem has been a pretty average one so far, temps have been around 29-33c in days for the most part.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> It's pretty much in the report, with the prospects for 2100.


Yes, the predictions are scientifically reliable, but I'd like to have one example of climate change I can point to when people ask me for one.

The accelerated warming of the high latitudes has decreased the north-south gradient and largely contributed to the decrease in the planetary wave number, to the surprise of weather-watchers.


----------



## Luchesi

Clouds Weep Snowflakes said:


> This summer in Jerusalem has been a pretty average one so far, temps have been around 29-33c in days for the most part.


Yes, the temperatures in the Arctic have risen very fast and so the rising average for the whole planet AND where most people live, hasn't been noticeable in the weather cycles.


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> Yes, the predictions are scientifically reliable, but I'd like to have one example of climate change I can point to when people ask me for one.
> 
> The accelerated warming of the high latitudes has decreased the north-south gradient and largely contributed to the decrease in the planetary wave number, to the surprise of weather-watchers.


Depends on your definition of climate then, if happened, major increases in temperature don't qualify. The report says an average global increase of 0.87 C in the period, Svalbard obviously way above that, about 5 times more.


----------



## Clouds Weep Snowflakes

Luchesi said:


> Yes, the temperatures in the Arctic have risen very fast and so the average for the whole planet AND where most people live, hasn't been noticeable in the weather cycles.


You do acknowledge Jerusalem is one of the cooler places in Israel, right? 30c On a summer day is nothing here.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Depends on your definition of climate then, if happened, major increases in temperature don't qualify. The report says an average global increase of 0.87 C in the period, Svalbard obviously way above that, about 5 times more.


This is the position I'm in;
In a briefing a skeptical physicist says, "OK, we have a meteorologist who can't get away! What's your best example of climate change?"

Svalbard

Has precipitation increased?

Not yet.

Are the storms clearly coming from different directions due to what's predicted from fluid dynamics?

Not yet.

Have the local winds changed, climatologically speaking? Windier? Records broken?

Not yet.

Droughts, flooding?

Not yet.


----------



## Room2201974

Can I interrupt a perfectly good scope-creeped discussion and start a hotly contested debate on the weather????

Question for you musical theorists out there: Everyone who has heard the shrieks of high wind will tell you that the sound is definitely atonal. So, if Tropical Storm Dorian* reaches hurricane wind shrieking stage, does she then lose her modal harmony?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/085016.shtml?tswind120#contents

*First cyclone in any hemisphere to be named after one of the old "church" modes!


----------



## Luchesi

Room2201974 said:


> Can I interrupt a perfectly good scope-creeped discussion and start a hotly contested debate on the weather????
> 
> Question for you musical theorists out there: Everyone who has heard the shrieks of high wind will tell you that the sound is definitely atonal. So, if Tropical Storm Dorian* reaches hurricane wind shrieking stage, does she then lose her modal harmony?
> 
> https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/085016.shtml?tswind120#contents
> 
> *First cyclone in any hemisphere to be named after one of the old "church" modes!


Eleanor Rigby reminds us of the Dorian mode. Maybe it'll start playing that. It all depends upon the holes that the air is whistling through.

Ah, look at all the lonely people, where do they all come from after the storm blows over?

added: with AGW and its increased windshear - the storm will either be blown apart or it will be stronger than expected. There's no in-between anymore I've been told.


----------



## Luchesi

Duplicate post 

why doesn't my computer know what I intend?


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Eleanor Rigby reminds us of the Dorian mode. Maybe it'll start playing that. It all depends upon the holes that the air is whistling through.
> 
> Ah, look at all the lonely people, where do they all come from after the storm blows over?
> 
> added: with AGW and its increased windshear - the storm will either be blown apart or it will be stronger than expected. There's no in-between anymore I've been told.


I've heard once you are in the eye, it switches over to John Cage's 4'33".


----------



## Strange Magic

How about dropping an atomic bomb into the eye of a hurricane? Seems like a great idea!!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49471093


----------



## Luchesi

Strange Magic said:


> How about dropping an atomic bomb into the eye of a hurricane? Seems like a great idea!!
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49471093


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https://www.specialopswatch.com/pro...cOAll9HJdrheIigW8De0b0MxOonL2D-8aAhlGEALw_wcB


----------



## KenOC

Hurricane Dorian has just been declared Cat 4, with sustained winds of 130 mph / 215 km/h. This large hurricane is still three or four days from Florida and will be passing over very warm waters, so it should intensify further before landfall.

Predictions are still uncertain, but the current guidance shows it coming onshore at about Palm Beach and then turning to the north, tracking just inland through most of Florida, hitting all the coastal communities including Orlando and Jacksonville. If this happens, it will be piling up a 10-20 foot storm surge ahead of it (due to its CCW rotation) and causing massive flooding just before the strongest winds hit the affected areas.

This could be very nasty.


----------



## Roger Knox

KenOC said:


> Hurricane Dorian has just been declared Cat 4 ...
> This could be very nasty.


It's still gaining intensity, heading straight west now (posted at 10:25 Eastern Standard Time) -- getting closer to a Cat 5. Still predicted to turn north near landfall but Florida would get hit hard anyway.


----------



## KenOC

As of this hour, Dorian is still 3+ days out. Sustained winds have increased to 150 mph (240 km/h). The forecast track now shows the hurricane passing offshore of Florida and striking the US coast farther north. But given the distance yet to travel, anything can happen.


----------



## Luchesi

I shot my AR15 into the air, 
Bullets fell to earth, I knew not where...


----------



## Larkenfield




----------



## KenOC

Check out the video in this BBC story on Dorian, aerial views of the northern Bahamas. This is what a Cat 5 hurricane can do to you.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49574900


----------



## KenOC

Headline: “Hurricane Dorian lashing the Southeast as it barrels up the coast”

Why must hurricanes always “barrel”? It seems to me that they move in a rather stately, smooth fashion, not at all banging from side to side unpredictably. They pass across the water as if on roller skates.


----------



## Strange Magic

Hurricane Dorian a threat to "the great state of Alabama": Trump. The battle over the weather maps, fake news, and illegal activity.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49587232


----------



## KenOC




----------



## Totenfeier

KenOC said:


>


I actually know better, but this is still me. Every. Fleeping. Time.


----------



## Luchesi

Totenfeier said:


> I actually know better, but this is still me. Every. Fleeping. Time.


God sends the hurricanes and then people pray for God to weaken them, and they weaken!

It's an interesting cycle.


----------



## KenOC

Not exactly weather, but...had a small earthquake a few minutes ago. A single sharp jolt. The shake map shows it as a 4.0 with the epicenter about 30 miles inland from here. After a long hiatus subsequent to those big ones up in the Mojave a while ago, it's nice to know the earth is still thinking about us.


----------



## Strange Magic

NOAA and the NWS now realize that Hurricane Dorian was a an immediate and terrible threat to Alabama, as the Master Meteorologist intervened to show them the "correct path" that they missed in their amateur approach to serious science. They knelt and kissed the presented ring.......


----------



## atsizat

We had the most humid weather of the year in late August.

Dewpoint reached 23°C followed by a high of 31.8°C in late August.

September is still going humid but dewpoints are around 19°C these days at most.


----------



## Luchesi

This year autumn is coming slightly earlier to the US until the end of September. Then we'll be back to Indian Summer for about a week and a half.

Watch for the headlines, unseasonably cool and unseasonably hot. The waves bringing this rapidly changing pattern are increasingly more energetic, but it's still not clear and obvious.

added:
When I watch a pan of boiling water, if I raise the temperature 1° I don't see any changes. If the temperature was raised 2.5 to 4° you would see changes in the bubbling. I think it will be the same for the atmosphere.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> This year autumn is coming slightly earlier to the US until the end of September. Then we'll be back to Indian Summer for about a week and a half.
> 
> Watch for the headlines, unseasonably cool and unseasonably hot. The waves bringing this rapidly changing pattern are increasingly more energetic, but it's still not clear and obvious.
> 
> added:
> When I watch a pan of boiling water, if I raise the temperature 1° I don't see any changes. If the temperature was raised 2.5 to 4° you would see changes in the bubbling. I think it will be the same for the atmosphere.


Once it is boiling it is boiling. How would a 4 degree difference be visible in an already boiling pan of water?


----------



## KenOC

If the burner under a pan of boiling water is turned up, the water doesn't get any hotter but it boils more vigorously. The difference can be quite visible.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> Once it is boiling it is boiling. How would a 4 degree difference be visible in an already boiling pan of water?


The bubbles start out small and get larger and more turbulent. We think we see that since 2011 (with El Nino episodes mostly washing out the developments so that they begin again).


----------



## Guest

But we aren't boiling. We aren't even a few degrees away from boiling. Or 4 degrees.


----------



## Strange Magic

Always the literalist. The Walrus wanted to discuss "Why the sea is boiling hot." So we must be boiling. I saw a winged pig once in a dream.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> But we aren't boiling. We aren't even a few degrees away from boiling. Or 4 degrees.


Is that what you think I was referring to? Many people have that denier mindset, they can't help it.

The planet is too big and humans are too puny. "I've looked out my window every day and I've never seen climate change."

My best friend is a Boeing engineer and you should hear how he talks. No background in climatology but he's so sure there's nothing to worry about. Many predictions have been wrong so therefore the whole outlook is wrong.

He doesn't have those blinders on when he's talking about topics he understands. It's a curious phenomenon. I think it has something to do what little education we get in meteorology even though it's such a large part of our lives.


----------



## philoctetes

From wiki:









So why does Greta (and her supporters) not direct her rants to the Chinese?


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## Strange Magic

philoctetes said:


> From wiki:
> 
> View attachment 124236
> 
> 
> So why does Greta (and her supporters) not direct her rants to the Chinese?


Do we know that she is not?


----------



## philoctetes

Strange Magic said:


> Do we know that she is not?


I know that her group filed a lawsuit yesterday against Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany and Turkey. She also got caught in a great photo glaring at Trump behind his back. I remember when I felt that way about Nixon.

What do you know? Not much apparently.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Is that what you think I was referring to? Many people have that denier mindset, they can't help it.
> 
> The planet is too big and humans are too puny. "I've looked out my window every day and I've never seen climate change."
> 
> My best friend is a Boeing engineer and you should hear how he talks. No background in climatology but he's so sure there's nothing to worry about. Many predictions have been wrong so therefore the whole outlook is wrong.
> 
> He doesn't have those blinders on when he's talking about topics he understands. It's a curious phenomenon. I think it has something to do what little education we get in meteorology even though it's such a large part of our lives.


Those are a lot of assumptions about what I think.

I think climate change is real. I think the predictions tend towards the apocalyptic - I think that is done to try and scare people into caring, but in reality I think it is counterproductive, because when you predict enough planetary destructions that ultimately don't come to pass, people stop taking you seriously.


----------



## Guest

philoctetes said:


> From wiki:
> 
> View attachment 124236
> 
> 
> So why does Greta (and her supporters) not direct her rants to the Chinese?


Because she is a 16-year old who only knows what those who are using her feed to her. And because this is lazy and cowardly outrage - she's yelling at countries that will let the teen climate alarmist yell at them, rather than the ones that run tanks over people if they get in their way.

My general rule of thumb is to not pay attention to overly emotional teenagers yelling at me about how much more they know than I do.


----------



## Jacck

DrMike said:


> Those are a lot of assumptions about what I think.
> 
> I think climate change is real. I think the predictions tend towards the apocalyptic - I think that is done to try and scare people into caring, but in reality I think it is counterproductive, because when you predict enough planetary destructions that ultimately don't come to pass, people stop taking you seriously.


there is a 50% chance, that you are going to die in the next 5 years. But if you accept to lower your salary to 70% of your current salary, the chance that you are going to die within the next five years is only 20%. What would you chose? Would you lower your salary?


----------



## KenOC

To paraphrase Mr. Handy: We need to save the planet for our children. But not for our children's children, because children shouldn't have sex.


----------



## Jacck

DrMike said:


> Because she is a 16-year old who only knows what those who are using her feed to her. And because this is lazy and cowardly outrage - she's yelling at countries that will let the teen climate alarmist yell at them, rather than the ones that run tanks over people if they get in their way.
> 
> My general rule of thumb is to not pay attention to overly emotional teenagers yelling at me about how much more they know than I do.


I do not particularly like Greta too, but the CO2 production is driven by consuption. China does produce CO2, but USA consumes the goods. That is the huge negative trade deficit, that your president is talking about. Or look for example at the petroleum consumption
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...consumption_of_selected_nations_1960-2008.png
you all need have your SUVs gulping gallons and gallons of gas


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> there is a 50% chance, that you are going to die in the next 5 years. But if you accept to lower your salary to 70% of your current salary, the chance that you are going to die within the next five years is only 20%. What would you chose? Would you lower your salary?


Those aren't realistic approximations of the actual climate danger. The impact to income is much higher and the risk of death is much lower.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> I do not particularly like Greta too, but the CO2 production is driven by consuption. China does produce CO2, but USA consumes the goods. That is the huge negative trade deficit, that your president is talking about. Or look for example at the petroleum consumption
> https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...consumption_of_selected_nations_1960-2008.png
> you all need have your SUVs gulping gallons and gallons of gas


So are you arguing China isn't really consuming that much? The chart showed our CO2 emissions declining - how do you square that with our increased consumption?


----------



## Jacck

DrMike said:


> Those aren't realistic approximations of the actual climate danger. The impact to income is much higher and the risk of death is much lower.


and that you know how? You did some actual research?


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> and that you know how? You did some actual research?


I know the risk of the planet dying in 5 years is not 50%.


----------



## KenOC

*A Climate Modeler Spills the Beans*

Interesting article claiming that all attempts to forecast the future of our climate through modeling (or more accurately, simulation) are doomed to result only in garbage. There are a lot of interesting specifics. Perhaps Luchesi could comment on this!


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> *A Climate Modeler Spills the Beans*
> 
> Interesting article claiming that all attempts to forecast the future of our climate through modeling (or more accurately, simulation) are doomed to result only in garbage. There are a lot of interesting specifics. Perhaps Luchesi could comment on this!


I think it's important to hear more from people like Nakamura, who are less emotional, less political, and more informed than media "scientists" or public "intellectuals". We've discussed the observable non-linearity of some simple correlations here before. Just a couple days ago I referred to the data calibration issues that Nakamura cites that influence the choice of model parameters.

Those who say things like "In these several decades only, it [solar flux] has varied by one to two watts per square metre" are typically tossed into the "climate denier" scrap bin by more emotional doomsday believers. I think this is handicapping our big picture view of the problem while people who are absolute non-scientists, fronted by a generation of youth addicted to technological conveniences they don't even understand, suspiciously try to convince us that they know all the causes and that a whole new economic system is necessary to fix it or we'll all die in 6 years.

Like droughts in California, I've been through a few of these hysterical phases before, and I don't deny that something is happening, I just don't think think we understand it so well. The sensitivities to natural factors, those we don't add to, are also strong according to Nakamura. I could be wrong but I believe that volcanic activity can have a major impact, yet the emo panic brigade tells us that eating beef is a bigger problem than that, or even all the electricity that is being consumed by hundreds of millions to run air conditioners, human engineering servers, bitcoin systems, etc...

Sorry, but if I had to choose between my internet connection to this forum or a reliable source of fresh milk, I think the choice is pretty obvious...


----------



## Strange Magic

Longtime observers of the sciences note a common pattern as newer hypotheses based on different and expanding data sets replace older ideas. These hypotheses evolve into more formal theories, and there is a steady increase in the numbers of those for whom the newer theories provide a better match with their own theoretical work. But there are always dissenters from the growing consensus, and sometimes--usually due to inherent problems in establishing both the accuracy and the relevance of data--the process of establishing an overwhelming consensus is protracted. A good example of this in geology is the ongoing dispute over the reality of mantle plumes of warm materials rising from the core/mantle boundary to Earth's surface to appear as volcanic hot spots. The website mantleplumes.org chronicles the constant discussion.

We find in climate science and discussions of AGW the same phenomenon. Prof. Nakamura has his doubts about the ability to accurately model global warming based on his analyses of the rigor of both the data and the models that climatologists are using. But the difference between the debate over mantle plumes and that over climate change lies in the possibility of extreme disruption of both our civilization and the biosphere from AGW, whereas whether surface hot spots are or are not the result of deep mantle plumes is of no consequence to the future happiness of our children. Simple prudence dictates that we address AGW as a real phenomenon and act accordingly. It is recognized as such by the world's leading scientific associations and climatologists. And its amelioration involves policies that result in beneficial changes even outside of the AGW threat, in more efficient use of resources, a cleaner environment, less waste and pollution, etc. 

On the Quadrant article and its author, at first I thought Tony Thomas might be the Australian physicist of that name. But he turns out to be yet another Tony Thomas, a journalist specializing in economic matters (sound familiar?). Quadrant itself is just the sort of publication in which we would expect to find a piece touting an economics-based contrarian view of whether we should do anything about AGW.


----------



## Jacck

I am no climate scientist, but I know enough about such modeling to be sceptical too about their ability to model the climate. The climate is a very complicated system with many positive and negative feedback loops, and components such as oceans, ice, perfmafrost, atmosphere, the clouds etc. Ultimately, all the question can be answered only empirically.
On the other hands, the whole thing became politicized. There are vested interests of various groups. For example the fossil fuel lobby obviously wants to propagate the story that CO2 is harmless and even beneficial for vegetation. Russia is known to have sponsored climate sceptics and US right-wing media such as Breitbart and Fox News became avid consumers of Russian propaganda
https://www.nationalobserver.com/20...a-used-memes-inflame-us-climate-change-debate
so that today it seems almost impossible to discuss climate change in an apolitical and unbiased manner. It is enough for me to hear one's opinions of climate change, and I can almost predict the political convinctions of that guy


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## Strange Magic

^^^^You are absolutely correct. The hard core of AGW denial is rooted in economic individualism/libertarianism of which Ayn Randian "Objectivism" is the most extreme example. AGW amelioration involves concerted social agreement and effort, and certain constraints in behavior, that are interpreted by such as evidence of Communism, Socialism, Liberalism, or any other stick with which to beat AGW and other environmental activists. Others just hate the idea of change. Yet others of a religious frame of mind cannot abide the idea that a deity is not effectively dealing with the environmental heat balance of the Earth, or the growing acidity of the global ocean, etc. And we have seen right here on TC a shuddering rejection of the notion that a significantly smaller global population would result in significantly less malignant effect on the biosphere. The kids and grandkids are going to be traveling a rough road.


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> ...Like droughts in California, I've been through a few of these hysterical phases before, and I don't deny that something is happening, I just don't think think we understand it so well.


If we look back about a thousand years, we can see that scary things happen from time to time. What would happen to California the these droughts were repeated?


----------



## Guest

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/24/save-greta/


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## Strange Magic

Everything is just fine and getting better every day in every way .

https://www.talkclassical.com/groups/general-politics-d1577-another-example-of-people.html


----------



## KenOC

First rain of the season today. Not a measurable amount, but enough to make you turn on the windshield wipers for a bit.

And just in time. Our new official rain year starts October 1, just a few days away. In the rain year now ending, we received 136% of normal rainfall. Maybe we can do that again!


----------



## KenOC

Strange Magic said:


> ...On the Quadrant article and its author, at first I thought Tony Thomas might be the Australian physicist of that name. But he turns out to be yet another Tony Thomas, a journalist specializing in economic matters (sound familiar?). Quadrant itself is just the sort of publication in which we would expect to find a piece touting an economics-based contrarian view of whether we should do anything about AGW.


Mr. Thomas in his article presents Nakamura's views. You respond by an ad hominem attack on Thomas, which is neither relevant, helpful, nor honest.


----------



## Strange Magic

KenOC said:


> Mr. Thomas in his article presents Nakamura's views. You respond by an ad hominem attack on Thomas, which is neither relevant, helpful, nor honest.


My post was clear enough to anyone who read it. If it is an ad hominem to report that Tony Thompson is a journalist specializing in economic matters for a publication where such views are to be expected, I plead guilty as charged. But shouldn't ad hominems be made of sterner stuff?


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## philoctetes

I'm not a climate expert either but I have worked with standard atmospheric radiance, transmission and absorption models like LOWTRAN. I've also coded some pretty elaborate target simulations for testing detection algorithms for numerous applications. Such models are often loaded with free parameters, meaning they have to be set by the user at runtime, and less experienced users might simply be tweaking the parameters that interest them while leaving dozens of other on "default" or whatever the settings they inherited might be. So when a guy who has worked with computer climate models talks about problems relating to non-linearity or insufficient resolution or dynamical uncertainty (after ll, let's not forget the butterfly's wings, right?), etc... then he is speaking in terms I certainly would rather discuss that what I usually hear.

Skeptics should not be lumped in with deniers. That's intellectual dishonesty.


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## Guest

*Skeptics should not be lumped in with deniers. That's intellectual dishonesty*.

I think that's pretty accurate. But speaking as one who has been skeptical - my skepticism is with the scientific community who routinely de-platforms anyone with a dissenting opinion rather than taking the argument to them. The hubris is astounding. And there are many rent-seekers and gravy-train-riders in universities looking for the next taxpayer grant; we all know this to be true.

People like myself call it "the climate change industry" and when we see hypocrites from the UN exhorting us about the end being nigh and using the language of Old Testament fire and brimstone you know your doubts have been validated. This is one and the same organization which wants nations like Saudi Arabia on 'womens' rights' committees. You couldn't make it up!!!!!


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## Strange Magic

Agreed that skeptics should not be lumped in with deniers. But given the consequences of error on both sides of both the AGW question and the population/pollution/environment conundrum, it remains far more prudent to move forward as if these threats are real rather than dither over their reality or intensity and put a still-functioning biosphere at risk. I realize the near-hysterical ferocity with which footdraggers energized with ideological _laissez faire_ economic and/or religious enthusiasms seek to halt or diminish or delay vigorous responses to environmental issues, as their world-views are sorely threatened by such predictions of danger. And so the uncertainties of the skeptics are seized upon by the nay-sayers and deniers with understandable zeal. Given, as I've noted, that the benefits of environmental and population amelioration are real, even in the very unlikely case that AGW itself is less than postulated, wisdom lies in vigorously pursuing policies to limit AGW.

Loved your attack on Greta's physique! Very classy! You can be proud.


----------



## Taggart

Please comment on the weather *not* various activists or other members


----------



## Guest

Maybe you can remove the reference to Greta Thunberg's physique as well. If not I will be requesting that my account on this site be deleted, in accordance the EU regulations.


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## philoctetes

Taggart said:


> Please comment on the weather *not* various activists or other members


I second the Baron. This most offensive comment is still on the thread.


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## philoctetes

Well the weather is cloudy and cool here for once... a nice break from the blazing 104 F we had two days ago....


----------



## Guest

I think commenting on Greta's appearance is pretty reprehensible. However, as I have mentioned elsewhere, this girl does suffer from Aspberger's, and she is clearly uncomfortable in front of large groups of people (all this has been documented in her mother's autobiography - not speculating here). I think it is reprehensible how she is being used in this way. She should be home, attending school, and not spending months at sea to make meaningless speeches because the climate alarmists think they can use her to bolster their claims.


----------



## Guest

Baron Scarpia said:


> Maybe you can remove the reference to Greta Thunberg's physique as well. If not I will be requesting that my account on this site be deleted, in accordance the EU regulations.


Seems kind of harsh. There are numerous comments throughout this forum that will no doubt rankle numerous people. But the decision to remove them falls on the moderators. I think it would be bad precedent to remove posts due to a member threatening to quit - especially if it wasn't even directed at the member. Kind of like forum hostage taking - give in to my demands, or I leave. If you want to leave, leave. But don't tie your leaving or staying to moderators obeying your commands. Report the post, then leave it to the moderators. Your way essentially elevates you to the level of moderator - regardless of the merits of the complaint.


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## philoctetes

DrMike said:


> Seems kind of harsh. There are numerous comments throughout this forum that will no doubt rankle numerous people. But the decision to remove them falls on the moderators. I think it would be bad precedent to remove posts due to a member threatening to quit - especially if it wasn't even directed at the member. Kind of like forum hostage taking - give in to my demands, or I leave. If you want to leave, leave. But don't tie your leaving or staying to moderators obeying your commands. Report the post, then leave it to the moderators. Your way essentially elevates you to the level of moderator - regardless of the merits of the complaint.


DrMike, are you aware that our responses were deleted and that the Baron is only asking that the deletions be *fair and balanced*? It seems not. That's why I gave my second. But the record is now erased and you are none the wiser.


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## Strange Magic

Some truly pathetic efforts here to whitewash efforts to denigrate Greta Thunberg. But not unexpected from those angered and frightened by schoolchildren. She is a circus freak only in the minds of some of our esteemed brethren here on TC. The schoolchildren frightened by mass murder and gun violence here in the NRA's USA are also thus circus freaks.


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## KenOC

Young Ms. Thunberg looks like she's having a great time in Canada right now. Like Alma Deutscher, I have no worries about her future.


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## Guest

She may be an odd bird, but ordinary people don't change the world.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> Those are a lot of assumptions about what I think.
> 
> I think climate change is real. I think the predictions tend towards the apocalyptic - I think that is done to try and scare people into caring, but in reality I think it is counterproductive, because when you predict enough planetary destructions that ultimately don't come to pass, people stop taking you seriously.


What you think? I don't know what you think.

You don't know what my opinions are, because they change with every surprise in the data. Yours should too. But I've never even taken a course in oncology so I don't expect I can evaluate recent discoveries about cancer. Few people have taken courses in Rossby Wave Theory.


----------



## philoctetes

"But not unexpected from those angered and frightened by schoolchildren"

Seriously who writes garbage like this? I don't agree with the comments either but this kind of "analysis" is just poppycock.


----------



## Strange Magic

philoctetes said:


> "But not unexpected from those angered and frightened by schoolchildren"
> 
> Seriously who writes garbage like this? I don't agree with the comments either but this kind of "analysis" is just poppycock.


if the shoe fits (and it does, perfectly) on an infected, snake-bitten foot, wear it. As we recall, the Greeks left your namesake on the coast of Lemnos because they could not tolerate the stench from that inected foot.


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Some truly pathetic efforts here to whitewash efforts to denigrate Greta Thunberg. But not unexpected from those angered and frightened by schoolchildren. She is a circus freak only in the minds of some of our esteemed brethren here on TC. The schoolchildren frightened by mass murder and gun violence here in the NRA's USA are also thus circus freaks.


You have conflated two entirely un-related issues. Those concerned about the child Thunberg are angry about international patronization of her and exploitation. Surely there is some articulate adult/university student who could push this cause, or do you think it works better on the heart-strings using a child such as Greta Thunberg. And where are her parents? As parents we want to protect our children, hold them close, until they are of an age to deal with life's depredations. Hideous exploitation here in the extreme which has zero to do with arguments about 'climate change'.

The Left as ever, ALWAYS goes too far. Most decent, reasonable people will see this use and exploitation of a vulnerable 16yr old as child abuse. For that is precisely what it is


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> You have conflated two entirely un-related issues. Those concerned about the child Thunberg are angry about international patronization of her and exploitation. Surely there is some articulate adult/university student who could push this cause, or do you think it works better on the heart-strings using a child such as Greta Thunberg. And where are her parents? As parents we want to protect our children, hold them close, until they are of an age to deal with life's depredations. Hideous exploitation here in the extreme which has zero to do with arguments about 'climate change'.
> 
> The Left as ever, ALWAYS goes too far. Most decent, reasonable people will see this use and exploitation of a vulnerable 16yr old as child abuse. For that is precisely what it is


Again, adults seeking to denigrate and belittle the young (16 years old; not 6 years old) and concerned messenger rather than tackling the message. Angered and frightened by schoolchildren, and lashing back.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> You have conflated two entirely un-related issues. Those concerned about the child Thunberg are angry about international patronization of her and exploitation. Surely there is some articulate adult/university student who could push this cause, or do you think it works better on the heart-strings using a child such as Greta Thunberg. And where are her parents? As parents we want to protect our children, hold them close, until they are of an age to deal with life's depredations. Hideous exploitation here in the extreme which has zero to do with arguments about 'climate change'.
> 
> The Left as ever, ALWAYS goes too far. Most decent, reasonable people will see this use and exploitation of a vulnerable 16yr old as child abuse. For that is precisely what it is


They will always prefer emotional manipulation and demagoguery, regardless of how much they claim to be the party of reason. Reasonable people don't thrust teenagers out in front to argue for them. 16 year olds are known for many things, but reason is not high on that list,


----------



## Strange Magic

DrMike said:


> They will always prefer emotional manipulation and demagoguery, regardless of how much they claim to be the party of reason. Reasonable people don't thrust teenagers out in front to argue for them. 16 year olds are known for many things, but reason is not high on that list,


Reason: Nuclear reactors, growing populations, cheerful loss of biodiversity, and cornucopian economic theories of limitless growth. Perhaps it takes a younger mind to see the underlying unreason behind the mask of such "reason".

Same dismissal of schoolchildren speaking out strongly against NRA's Brave New World of maximum saturation of society with lethal weaponry bleeding over into school violence and terror. "And a little child shall lead them".


----------



## KenOC




----------



## joen_cph

Things seem to have been going well for Severn Cullis-Suzuki, a ~Thunberg but anno 1992.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severn_Cullis-Suzuki


----------



## Guest

joen_cph said:


> Things seem to have been going well for Severn Cullis-Suzuki, a ~Thunberg but anno 1992.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severn_Cullis-Suzuki


Hands up - who knew who the hell this person was? Anybody? Anybody? I read the Wikipedia entry, still not ringing a bell. 
My favorite part of the entry - 27 years ago, she said the following, "I am afraid to go out in the sun now because of the hole in our ozone. I am afraid to breathe the air because I don't know what chemicals are in it."

Fast forward a few years - she graduated from Yale, and then, "After Yale, Cullis-Suzuki spent two years traveling." You think she spent those entire 2 years traveling never going outdoors, for fear of the hole in the ozone and what chemicals she might breathe in? You think she did that travel by only using zero carbon emissions million dollar yachts?


----------



## Strange Magic

Greta handling her infantile, cry-baby detractors with mature grace and telling insight:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49855980


----------



## Strange Magic

DrMike said:


> Hands up - who knew who the hell this person was? Anybody? Anybody? I read the Wikipedia entry, still not ringing a bell.
> My favorite part of the entry - 27 years ago, she said the following, "I am afraid to go out in the sun now because of the hole in our ozone. I am afraid to breathe the air because I don't know what chemicals are in it."
> 
> Fast forward a few years - she graduated from Yale, and then, "After Yale, Cullis-Suzuki spent two years traveling." You think she spent those entire 2 years traveling never going outdoors, for fear of the hole in the ozone and what chemicals she might breathe in? You think she did that travel by only using zero carbon emissions million dollar yachts?


As constant as the North Star! I just knew that criticism--real or imaginary--of any activist concerned with AGW would involve talk of their "carbon footprint". :lol: The Good Doctor never disappoints.


----------



## joen_cph

DrMike said:


> Hands up - who knew who the hell this person was? Anybody? Anybody? I read the Wikipedia entry, still not ringing a bell ...


Sorry about mentioning someone you didn't know, though I don't think it's disqualifying for the entry. Yet I didn't know her either, since her speech was long ago; but two newspapers here are mentioning her today. People on TC have expressed worries about Thunberg's future, and this was an example of a continued environmental work, which the Wikipedia entry doesn't update (other sources do). I guess the general news feed will probably reach some of you over there soon too.

When I travelled Europe as a youngster for 8 months in 1989, it was by trains and on my bicycle. So not much environmental problem in that. I don't know about Suzuki's travelling habits, but backpacking is popular among some North Americans too, in spite of the general American focus on cars and flights.


----------



## Guest

joen_cph said:


> Sorry about mentioning someone you didn't know, though I don't think it's disqualifying for the entry. Yet I didn't know her either, since her speech was long ago; but two newspapers here are mentioning her today. People on TC have expressed worries about Thunberg's future, and this was an example of a continued environmental work, which the Wikipedia entry doesn't update (other sources do). I guess the general news feed will probably reach some of you over there soon too.
> 
> When I travelled Europe as a youngster for 8 months in 1989, it was by trains and on my bike. So not much environmental problem in that. I don't know about Suzuki's travelling habits, but backpacking is popular among North Americans too, in spite of the general American focus on cars and flights.


My point was that these individuals tend to be flashes in the pan, and as they get older, they get less extreme, as they learn more. The young Suzuki talked about her fear of going outside, while the older, more experienced one seems to be enjoying getting to know the world around her.

As to Americans' travel habits, I don't think you can compare us. You live in Denmark. How far do you have to go to get to another country? Take your pick - hiking or bike riding - how long would it take you? I spent 6 weeks in Hungary last year - in less than a day, I traveled almost the entire width of the country, a distance, as the crow flies, of 225 miles. That same distance, here in the U.S., gets me from my home in Alabama to the next state north - Tennessee. Or I can drive down to the coast. In contrast, from your home in Copenhagen, in roughly the same distance, you can go to Sweden, Norway, Germany, almost to the Netherlands, Poland. My mother lives on the other side of the country from me. There is not a point in Denmark that is more than 200 miles (as the crow flies) from Copenhagen (not counting Greenland). To go visit my mother, in a straight line, it is 1969 miles. Now, I suppose I could get bikes for the kids and wife - my 5-year old will need training wheels - and we could bike to grandmas. According to Google Maps, that would take 9 days to bike, but I'm assuming that is measured as adults with good bicycles. 5-year olds with training wheels won't make as good of time. Hiking? Well, it estimates that taking 32 days. Again, assuming the average pace of an adult, not adjusting for 5-year olds. So to spend 1 week with my mom, we'll need to block off 71 days for the round trip. By car? Well, now it is more manageable - 34 hours. Nice thing about the car is it is the same pace regardless of the age of my kids. Airplane? I can leave in the morning and have dinner with my mom that evening.

And Americans are actually quite fond of biking and backpacking. Do you know how crowded the Appalachian Trail is with hikers?


----------



## joen_cph

Your observations about distances are correct, and on the countryside here in Denmark people, especially families with children, also often have a preference for using cars, though there's a network of public transport of - mostly - good or okayish quality. 

However the local policy in many US areas, including many cities, has'n't been that of facilitating public transport or biking at the cost of car traffic to the same degree as here (though for instance NY has initiated a big plan to officially 'Copenhagenize' biking options there, using Danish experiences). As regards biking, in the US it is mostly used for sports and leisure, whereas we use it to commute; surveys prove that more people commute by bike than car here in Copenhagen.


----------



## Guest

joen_cph said:


> Your observations about distances are correct, and on the countryside here in Denmark people, especially families with children, also often have a preference for using cars, though there's a network of public transport of - mostly - good or okayish quality.
> 
> However the local policy in many US areas, including many cities, has'n't been that of facilitating public transport or biking at the cost of car traffic to the same degree as here (though for instance NY has initiated a big plan to officially 'Copenhagenize' biking options there, using Danish experiences). As regards biking, in the US it is mostly used for sports and leisure, whereas we use it to commute; surveys prove that more people commute by bike than car in Copenhagen.


Most European cities trace their founding to long before automobiles were invented, when transportation was mostly by foot or animal. As such, the major city itself is rather compact. Most American cities, in contrast, are relatively young, and built more around modern ideas of city planning - broader streets, more spread out, etc. Cities that are necessarily compact in the U.S. (Manhattan, which is an island; San Francisco, which is the tip of a peninsula; Washington, D.C., which has defined boundaries) tend to have decent public transportation. Most other cities are too big. The cost of living close to work is usually prohibitively high, so people have to live further away. Commuting by bike is just not feasible in most places, and public transportation is not cost effective. Again - so much of what is possible in Europe is just not translatable to the United States.


----------



## joen_cph

> Commuting by bike is just not feasible in most places, and public transportation is not cost effective. Again - so much of what is possible in Europe is just not translatable to the United States.


If there was enough political will for it, changes could be made. I'm aware there mostly isn't. Plus you probably have bigger safety issues. I write on a travel website, and some Americans are reluctant to even consider public transport when here, for that reason.

EDIT: btw, here we combine metropolitan trains/metro with bikes, maybe with bringing the bike on the train (I do that a lot, it's free). Going say 5-8 miles one way on the bike isn't a problem either, of course, if one doesn't use the train.


----------



## Guest

joen_cph said:


> *If there was enough political will for it, changes could be made.* I'm aware there mostly isn't. Plus you probably have bigger safety issues.


Pardon me, but that is crap. "Enough political will" is not the solution to everything. If we had enough political will, I still couldn't transform into the leading player in the NBA. That just isn't going to happen. There isn't enough political will in the world to turn lead into gold.

What it comes down to is whether it is feasible, affordable, and if enough people want it. If there was enough political will, we could just pay everybody $1 million/year and let them all live at the beach doing nothing. And we would be bankrupt and crushed as a nation in less than a year. We have a public train system in this country - Amtrak - and it has never turned a profit. It loses money. Because it just isn't feasible. So tax dollars pay for a train system not enough people want to ride. California had the political will to build a high speed rail linking the northern and southern halves of the state - and even in California, perhaps the most liberal and environmentally conscious state in our country, they couldn't do it.

I'm sorry - we don't live in fairy tale land, where wishing hard enough on a star can make all your dreams come true. Eventually reality comes calling.


----------



## joen_cph

DrMike said:


> Pardon me, but that is crap. "Enough political will" is not the solution to everything. If we had enough political will, I still couldn't transform into the leading player in the NBA. That just isn't going to happen. There isn't enough political will in the world to turn lead into gold.
> 
> What it comes down to is whether it is feasible, affordable, and if enough people want it. If there was enough political will, we could just pay everybody $1 million/year and let them all live at the beach doing nothing. And we would be bankrupt and crushed as a nation in less than a year. We have a public train system in this country - Amtrak - and it has never turned a profit. It loses money. Because it just isn't feasible. So tax dollars pay for a train system not enough people want to ride. California had the political will to build a high speed rail linking the northern and southern halves of the state - and even in California, perhaps the most liberal and environmentally conscious state in our country, they couldn't do it.
> 
> I'm sorry - we don't live in fairy tale land, where wishing hard enough on a star can make all your dreams come true. Eventually reality comes calling.


All of your initial, contrasting examples are totally irrelevant. As regards Amtrak: from what I understand, they have less stations and departures, and generally a poor reputation. As regards prices and service levels, political decisions could change that. I don't know enough about that high speed line, but seem to remember that it was going to be a quite exclusive product.

On the other hand, the NY subway seems to be popular and effective, for example.


----------



## joen_cph

BTW, a new, circular metro line opened here in downtown Copenhagen just today, called Cityringen 
https://www.magasinetkbh.dk/indhold/sa-abner-cityringen
10 miles underground, with 17 new stations, that will facilitate public transport further here. It took 8 years in the making, including archaelogical research, and often runs in historical areas, even just 4 m below architectural foundations, at the cost of around 4 billion dollars/25 billion DKK. It's the result of a political will to embark on such a project, of course, like most cases of infrastructure.

EDIT: in case someone is interested in the new metro, a better link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_Circle_Line


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## Guest

joen_cph said:


> All of your initial, contrasting examples are totally irrelevant. As regards Amtrak: from what I understand, they have less stations and departures, and generally a poor reputation. As regards prices and service levels, political decisions could change that. I don't know enough about that high speed line, but seem to remember that it was going to be a quite exclusive product.
> 
> On the other hand, the NY subway seems to be popular and effective, for example.


Great, so we could do public transportation in one compact City. That proves nothing. Look at how big New York City is compared to Los Angeles.

Denmark is roughly the same size as the state of Maryland. Maryland is the 42nd largest U.S. state. I'm sorry, it just isn't feasible, and no amount of political will can ever make it so. Exactly where is all that money going to come from? If California couldn't link up San Francisco with Los Angeles, you really think we can magically network every major city in every state with a rail network that would work? Especially given how cheap and quick air travel is? It isn't transferable.


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## KenOC

"Political will" = willingness to spend tax dollars. The US is already running an annual budget deficit of over a trillion dollars. That's a lot of zeros!

I'm quite certain that if we had sufficient "political will" we could make pigs fly. But there are such things as priorities.


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## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> "Political will" = willingness to spend tax dollars. The US is already running an annual budget deficit of over a trillion dollars. That's a lot of zeros!
> 
> I'm quite certain that if we had sufficient "political will" we could make pigs fly. But there are such things as priorities.


Yes, even though I expect that regional climates will slowly change over a century, where will we humans get the money to re-absorb the GHGs?


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## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> Yes, even though I expect that regional climates will slowly change over a century, where will we humans get the money to re-absorb the GHGs?


And which countries should supply such monies? As posted earlier:


----------



## joen_cph

KenOC said:


> "Political will" = willingness to spend tax dollars (...).


Besides the element of some long-term self-financing in transport infrastructure, I totally agree with that, including the variable factors of getting tax dollars, spending them, and on what.


----------



## joen_cph

DrMike said:


> Great, so we could do public transportation in one compact City. That proves nothing. Look at how big New York City is compared to Los Angeles.
> 
> Denmark is roughly the same size as the state of Maryland. Maryland is the 42nd largest U.S. state. I'm sorry, it just isn't feasible, and no amount of political will can ever make it so. Exactly where is all that money going to come from? If California couldn't link up San Francisco with Los Angeles, *you really think we can magically network every major city in every state with a rail network that would work?* Especially given how cheap and quick air travel is? It isn't transferable.


I never said that, so it's an exaggeration from you. I'm saying that more could be done in the field of various sorts of public transport and as regards biking.



DrMike said:


> Great, so we could do public transportation in one compact City. That proves nothing. Look at how big New York City is compared to Los Angeles.
> 
> Denmark is roughly the same size as the state of Maryland. Maryland is the 42nd largest U.S. state. I'm sorry, it just isn't feasible, and *no amount of political will can ever make it so.* Exactly where is all that money going to come from? If California couldn't link up San Francisco with Los Angeles, you really think we can magically network every major city in every state with a rail network that would work? Especially given how cheap and quick air travel is? It isn't transferable.


See you in 40-60 years, perhaps, and we'll know about the transport system then, and any changes in culture, broadly speaking.

There are however examples of bigger countries and areas dramatically reorganizing their infrastructure successfully within decades, also in the EU, such as Spain, where trains have become a success. German railways do well too, as do the Japanese. Not to mention the - admittedly much more authoritarian - example of China.

As said, NY is working to make biking a bigger part of the transport, though there's a very, very long way to go. I seem to remember it's about half a million bike rides per day currently there.


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## KenOC

Getting back to Greta:

*Putin implies teen climate activist is being manipulated*

MOSCOW (AP) - Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested 16-year-old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg may have been manipulated to serve the interests of others...

The Russian leader called Thunberg a "kind and sincere girl" who doesn't understand complex global issues such as the barriers to cleaner energy in developing countries.

Putin added, "It's deplorable when someone is using children and teenagers in their interests."


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## Jacck

A Czech child psychiatrist made a public talk about Greta. An (in)famous Czech string theorist Luboš Motl (who himself is very likely an Asperger) translated the piece
https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/09/boss-of-czech-child-psychiatrists-on.html
the psychiatrist was forced to resign


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## philoctetes

Child psychiatrist v strong theorist - professions which study things we can't see... based on indirect evidence...arguing about a girl's mental state, not climate change, another thing we study through indirect evidence... 

I often think we are pathologically speculative as a society... from God to strings and everything in between - people may know a lot but our judgments are often based on projection, extrapolation, agendas... at least the string theorist is likely to understand the uncertain nature of his imagination, but for a psychiatrist I'm not so sure.


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## joen_cph

Jacck said:


> A Czech child psychiatrist made a public talk about Greta. An (in)famous Czech string theorist Luboš Motl (who himself is very likely an Asperger) translated the piece
> https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/09/boss-of-czech-child-psychiatrists-on.html
> the psychiatrist was forced to resign


Among other things, one of the cases where one can begin to wonder whether a psychiatrist chose his profession for altruistic or sadistic reasons ... What does he have to offer her, except negativity and dehumanization, saying that she's incurable, can't connect with anyone or knows what she's talking about, etc. And this based on some television appearances.


----------



## Jacck

joen_cph said:


> Among other things, one of the cases where one can begin to wonder whether a psychiatrist chose his profession for altruistic or sadistic reasons ... What does he have to offer her, except negativity and dehumanization, saying that she's incurable, can't connect with anyone or knows what she's talking about, etc. And this based on some television appearances.


that is why he was forced to resign, because many people (including other psychiatrists) complained about the interview.


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## Listenerris

autumn? autumn! with cold water and clouds darkness. I have the strongest desire to return into smiling summers days.


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## Guest

joen_cph said:


> Among other things, one of the cases where one can begin to wonder whether a psychiatrist chose his profession for altruistic or sadistic reasons ... What does he have to offer her, except negativity and dehumanization, saying that she's incurable, can't connect with anyone or knows what she's talking about, etc. And this based on some television appearances.


To be fair, though, a lot of information about Greta's Aspbergers diagnosis, how it manifests in her, and the major changes the family has had to make to accommodate it (including switching to a vegan lifestyle, which her mother has to make for her to take to school and which must be in a reusable container, and she will refuse to eat it if her mother puts a tape or sticker with her name on it as that represents a tree cut down to make the tape/sticker) is documented in her mother's autobiography. Her mother has had to essentially give up her career as an operatic singer due to the family's self-imposed travel restrictions to accommodate Greta's freaking out. It is documented in there that she really is highly uncomfortable in public (you can see her discomfort when she is having to speak). But I don't think anybody who is using her to push their agenda really cares about any of that.

Anyways, I have read a summary of that book - it is not yet available in English. The information is available if anybody actually wants to know about how serious her condition is, and from her mother - presumably a reliable and trusted source.


----------



## Taggart

The OP



Taggart said:


> Britons are well known for talking about the weather.
> 
> Here's a thread for everybody, all over the world, to join in and talk about the weather where they are.


Please concentrate on *the weather* not people.


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## Strange Magic

Taggart said:


> The OP
> 
> Please concentrate on *the weather* not people.


The weather? We can't do anything about it. Climate change? We can do something about that, and some people and countries are beginning the effort. Greta Thunberg? Now everybody is or can be an expert (The "Doctors") on the far more engaging and involving topic of her degree of physical and mental development, almost to the point of obsession.


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## Guest

Taggart said:


> The OP
> 
> Please concentrate on *the weather* not people.


What about talking about meteorologists? That would involve both weather and people. 

Looking forward to temperatures finally coming down here (take your pick as to whether I am talking about my local weather or the temperature of this thread).


----------



## Luchesi

I took a glance at England's weather. 

7 impulses from now to the 18th. That's a lot even for that regional climate.

You can think of it as 7 times the air flow at the level of crystallization will be flowing with the rotational vector of the planet. The increase in energy results in precipitation at each of those boundaries.


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## Listenerris

Climate change is the very agenda probably so need in that time.


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## joen_cph

Listenerris said:


> Climate change is the very agenda probably so need in that time.


I sometimes find it a bit difficult to understand what you mean. Do you mean to say that climate change is important in our time? Are you using a translation machine? Google Translate works ok for many languages, but it's often not so good for Russian or Japanese, for example. Probably further languages as well.


----------



## Listenerris

joen_cph said:


> I sometimes find it a bit difficult to understand what you mean. Do you mean to say that climate change is important in our time? Are you using a translation machine? Google Translate works ok for many languages, but it's often not do good for Russian or Japanese, for example. Probably further languages as well.


I mean that the fact this phenomenon exists. And yes in the writing process I can be using online-translation, but another variant too.So climate change is important problem.


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## Luchesi

Listenerris said:


> I mean that the fact this phenomenon exists. And yes in the writing process I can be using online-translation, but another variant too.So climate change is important problem.


What's your first language? I'm fascinated about how the brain thinks like this.

Why did Chopin and Amandine (Amantine Lucile Aurore Dupin) 'think' that the weather would be better in Mallorca than up north? It was probably worse.


----------



## Listenerris

Luchesi said:


> What's your first language? I'm fascinated about how the brain thinks like this.
> 
> Why did Chopin and Amandine (Amantine Lucile Aurore Dupin) 'think' that the weather would be better in Mallorca than up north? It was probably worse.


My first language Russian. But it is difficult to me to write using correct form and construction in the whole. I am writing this what came in my mind, and then look it how it to be seen in the online translater. But I think that Chopin and Amandine lived in the beautifully time in regards of the weather.This problems beginning later.


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> What's your first language? I'm fascinated about how the brain thinks like this.
> 
> Why did Chopin and Amandine (Amantine Lucile Aurore Dupin) 'think' that the weather would be better in Mallorca than up north? It was probably worse.


Mallorca has a reputation for a mild winter climate by European standards. I'd suppose that a hilly location wouldn't help weatherwise during a period of poor weather. But it does seem that Mallorca wasn't much of a tourist destination at that time, some personal contacts must have inspired their visit to the island.


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## Guest

Finally got some long needed rain last night, and a cold front moving in means we finally will be dropping out of the 90s!


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Mallorca has a reputation for a mild winter climate by European standards. I'd suppose that a hilly location wouldn't help weatherwise during a period of poor weather. But it does seem that Mallorca wasn't much of a tourist destination at that time, some personal contacts must have inspired their visit to the island.


It's interesting that a Mediterranean climate has dry summers and wet winters, but further, a summer month receives one third the precipitation of the wettest winter month. This category has been developed over many years and that's what they came up with. But the curious thing is WHY this happens year after year. And of course, as the planet gains energy in which direction will this change?


----------



## joen_cph

In a village I frequent behind the French Riviera, at 500 m altitude & surrounded by peaks between 1500 - 2500 m., they say that winter climate has changed dramatically in recent decades. They used to have a lot of snow (I've witnessed it too, a layer of about 0.5 m), now it almost never snows, due to climate changes, though they do have rain.

I've heard the prediction that a lot of the Mediterranean coast is likely to get a climate somewhat similar to Northern Africa, with warmer summers too.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> In a village I frequent behind the French Riviera, at 500 m altitude & surrounded by peaks between 1500 - 2500 m., they say that winter climate has changed dramatically in recent decades. They used to have a lot of snow (I've witnessed it too, a layer of about 0.5 m), now it almost never snows, due to climate changes, though they do have rain.
> 
> I've heard the prediction that a lot of the Mediterranean coast is likely to get a climate somewhat similar to Northern Africa, with warmer summers too.


If you've noticed the climate change that much, I wonder what will be the next major change there?

As for the semipermanent ridge over Northern Africa, yes it will get more extensive and stronger (more resilient to disturbances). That's what ridges do when they receive more energy from the more energetic global circulation.


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## Luchesi

The weather will get wild by the middle of next week. We'll probably hear climate change talk. 

Then another blast a week later. A wild month, but it's the seasonal change over.

The ridges keep the air streams to north until October, but when the sun stops feeding them enough mass they weaken.


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## Guest

A long awaited cold front is finally moving through the South, and thank goodness for that. Comfortable temperatures in the morning and evening, and even some long-needed rain to turn my lawn from brown to browinsh-green!


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> A long awaited cold front is finally moving through the South, and thank goodness for that. Comfortable temperatures in the morning and evening, and even some long-needed rain to turn my lawn from brown to browinsh-green!


Goodness had nothing to do with it. Our Sun is right in front of our Supercluster right now.


----------



## Luchesi

Luchesi said:


> Goodness had nothing to do with it. Our Sun is right in front of our Supercluster right now.


Regulus according to the creators of Star Trek is the boundary between the Klingon and the Romulan empires. They're up in the daytime in this part of our orbit, so watch out! They're only about 420,000,000,000,000 miles away which is just a stone's throw across the Federation of Planets.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Goodness had nothing to do with it. Our Sun is right in front of our Supercluster right now.


I've heard this also is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> I've heard this also is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius.


Yes, in about the year 2690 CE.


----------



## Ingélou

Yesterday was a golden October day & we walked beside the swollen river Ouse. Today there've been patches of gold too - but also showers, most noticeable when one came on half way through my mowing of the back lawn at our rental house. 

I love October, though - it's always felt fresh and is quite often sunny too. It is the start of the university term, and I remember walking along the banks of the river Wear in Durham, where I was at university, and looking at the golden leaves dangling into the water. 

I suppose that as far as my life is concerned (if I'm fortunate), I'm in October now. I must make the most of it.


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> The weather will get wild by the middle of next week. We'll probably hear climate change talk.


Climate change is an ancient issue. I remember 65 years ago, hearing my father and the other men talking about the totally unprecedented weather, which they usually blamed on "those atom bombs."


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Climate change is an ancient issue. I remember 65 years ago, hearing my father and the other men talking about the totally unprecedented weather, which they usually blamed on "those atom bombs."


They couldn't look at the upper air data. We can.

(I'm thankful that the public doesn't want look at the upper air charts themselves. I might lose my cushy job.)


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> They couldn't look at the upper air data. We can.
> 
> (I'm thankful that the public doesn't want look at the upper air charts themselves. I might lose my cushy job.)


Listening to an audiobook, "The Pioneers" by David McCullough, about the early US settlers first going out to the Ohio/Old Northwest, and the first US settlement in what is present day Ohio (not first European settlement) - it talks about one of the first winters the settlers had, and how harsh it was. They didn't know it at the time, but we do now - it had been caused by volcanic eruptions in Iceland and Japan. Maybe we just need to learn how to urge on some more volcanoes to cool things off?


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> Listening to an audiobook, "The Pioneers" by David McCullough, about the early US settlers first going out to the Ohio/Old Northwest, and the first US settlement in what is present day Ohio (not first European settlement) - it talks about one of the first winters the settlers had, and how harsh it was. They didn't know it at the time, but we do now - it had been caused by volcanic eruptions in Iceland and Japan. Maybe we just need to learn how to urge on some more volcanoes to cool things off?


Were there harsh winters in other places?


----------



## Merl

32 degrees here in Chiclana today. I even went and played golf for the first time iin 30+ years. As expected I was utter ***** but I did enjoy myself.
My 2nd drive ended up stuck in a tree. Haha.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Were there harsh winters in other places?


I would assume so, but the book only talks about the settlers along the Ohio river.


----------



## Ingélou

DrMike said:


> Listening to an audiobook, "The Pioneers" by David McCullough, about the early US settlers first going out to the Ohio/Old Northwest, and the first US settlement in what is present day Ohio (not first European settlement) - it talks about one of the first winters the settlers had, and how harsh it was. They didn't know it at the time, but we do now - it had been caused by volcanic eruptions in Iceland and Japan. Maybe we just need to learn how to urge on some more volcanoes to cool things off?


Is that the same year (1880-1881) that features in Laura Ingalls Wilder's great book The Long Winter?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Winter_(novel)


----------



## Guest

Ingélou said:


> Is that the same year (1880-1881) that features in Laura Ingalls Wilder's great book The Long Winter?
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Winter_(novel)


No, this is ~100 years earlier than that. These were the first early settlements north of the Ohio River that began after the defeat of the British in the Revolutionary War that brought with it the ceding to the new United States what was then known as the Northwest Territory - what today makes up the U.S. states of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin.


----------



## KenOC

It's that time of year - fire weather in California. Hot and gusty Santa Ana winds, daytime humidity in the single digits, no rain since last spring, everything tinder dry - wildfires are more like explosions.

Because some very major and deadly fires in the last couple of years were caused by power lines arcing in the high winds, Pacific Gas & Electric, the North state's main supplier, is *turning off power* to big areas of California for "up to several days." About 800,000 homes and businesses will lose power for the duration. That's probably about two million people. Here's a map.


----------



## Guest

My hometown - Yuba City, in Sutter county, appears to be carved out there. My only guess is the numerous rivers in that county and less chance of fires there? Honestly, the biggest problems we have there are from flooding, as we saw a few years ago with Oroville dam. We aren't in the Foothills, where risk of fire is much higher.


----------



## Strange Magic

DrMike said:


> No, this is ~100 years earlier than that. These were the first early settlements north of the Ohio River that began after the defeat of the British in the Revolutionary War that brought with it the ceding to the new United States what was then known as the Northwest Territory - what today makes up the U.S. states of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin.


Possibly 1816, "The Year Without a Summer". The eruption of Tambora in Indonesia in 1815, following a previous eruption of Mayon in the Philippines:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Or maybe the winter of 1783-84. Also cold, but an El Niño-related event?

https://www.livescience.com/30325-iceland-volcano-laki-eruption-cold-winter.html


----------



## Guest

DrMike said:


> My hometown - Yuba City, in Sutter county, appears to be carved out there. My only guess is the numerous rivers in that county and less chance of fires there? Honestly, the biggest problems we have there are from flooding, as we saw a few years ago with Oroville dam. We aren't in the Foothills, where risk of fire is much higher.


I mean, I hate to say it. I really do love California. It is a great state - few are more beautiful, with more varied beauty, from mountains to ocean to desert to lush forests. But anymore, unless you are a billionaire, it is becoming increasingly difficult to live in this nutcase state. I keep urging my mother to either move closer to my brother in Utah or to me in Alabama. Her retirement funds will stretch much further in either place. Her utility bills alone are insane - and that is a single person living alone. Much higher than mine with a family of 5, even in peak summer when the AC runs almost constantly.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> And which countries should supply such monies? As posted earlier:


What is the source of this chart?

If true, it shows that emissions in a a few countries are relatively stable. These are mostly developed countries which are probably improving their efficiency by new technology.

China's emissions are increasing at the highest rate. China manufactures for the entire world but probably most of their output goes to wealthier countries.

Other countries all together are increasing the amount of emissions faster than developed countries. I would assume that is because they are not improving their efficiency, use a lot of low tech forms of fuel like burning coal or wood in people's homes, and have greater rates of population growth.

Probably the _amount _of emissions in developed countries _per capita_ exceeds by quite a bit that of the rest of the world. The chart doesn't directly show that, you'd have to factor in populations to see how much.

But I want to know, how are these international climate treaties going to address the increasing number of emissions coming from the less developed world? What is their plan for dealing with that?


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> What is the source of this chart?
> 
> If true, it shows that emissions in a a few countries are relatively stable. These are mostly developed countries which are probably improving their efficiency by new technology.
> 
> China's emissions are increasing at the highest rate. China manufactures for the entire world but probably most of their output goes to wealthier countries.
> 
> Other countries all together are increasing the amount of emissions faster than developed countries. I would assume that is because they are not improving their efficiency, use a lot of low tech forms of fuel like burning coal or wood in people's homes, and have greater rates of population growth.
> 
> Probably the _amount _of emissions in developed countries _per capita_ exceeds by quite a bit that of the rest of the world. The chart doesn't directly show that, you'd have to factor in populations to see how much.
> 
> But I want to know, how are these international climate treaties going to address the increasing number of emissions coming from the less developed world? What is their plan for dealing with that?


China is the highest, but it has leveled off, perhaps related to their support of renewable energy. It is also worth noting that China's output is twice the U.S. although they have four times the population, and a lot of their industrial production is for export to developed countries. The U.S. has the highest output per capita. Another issue is that the fracking boom in the U.S. has increased the release of methane into the atmosphere, in oil fields and elsewhere in the supply chain. Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas the CO2.

Probably emphasis should be put on greenhouse gas released per capita, and the U.S. is the worst offender by that measure. It doesn't mean developing countries don't have a responsibility too.


----------



## Open Book

Baron Scarpia said:


> China is the highest, but it has leveled off, perhaps related to their support of renewable energy. It is also worth noting that China's output is twice the U.S. although they have four times the population, and a lot of their industrial production is for export to developed countries. The U.S. has the highest output per capita. Another issue is that the fracking boom in the U.S. has increased the release of methane into the atmosphere, in oil fields and elsewhere in the supply chain. Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas the CO2.
> 
> Probably emphasis should be put on greenhouse gas released per capita, and the U.S. is the worst offender by that measure. It doesn't mean developing countries don't have a responsibility too.


I wasn't quite correct about China, it was increasing at a great rate, now has leveled off, but only very recently. The steep increase coincides with the years of their taking on manufacturing that used to be done in other parts of the world.

And yes, the U.S. causes the most emissions per capita. Agreed, and expected.

But the emission amounts of all the named countries are fairly level whether they are the worst energy hogs or more modest. The U.S. is a hog but is not increasing and has actually decreased lately.

I'm concerned about "Other countries" where emissions are not level but seem to have a constant rate of increase. Every 10 years that black dotted line rises by at least 1000 or lately 2000 on the vertical scale (emissions units).

It looks like "other countries" will catch up to the named countries in about 70 years in amount of emissions if their emissions are allowed to continue with their current trend. Then they will surpass the countries listed by name on the chart and be solely responsible for any emissions increase.

What are we going to do about this? Instead of just guilting the West/developed countries into reducing consumption, where emissions are stable, why aren't we addressing increasing emissions elsewhere?

It won't do much good if one part of the world is stable or decreasing and another part is increasing. It's the total amount of emissions that matters in affecting the climate.


----------



## Guest

Baron Scarpia said:


> China is the highest, but it has leveled off, perhaps related to their support of renewable energy. It is also worth noting that China's output is twice the U.S. although they have four times the population, and a lot of their industrial production is for export to developed countries. The U.S. has the highest output per capita. Another issue is that the fracking boom in the U.S. has increased the release of methane into the atmosphere, in oil fields and elsewhere in the supply chain. Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas the CO2.
> 
> Probably emphasis should be put on greenhouse gas released per capita, and the U.S. is the worst offender by that measure. It doesn't mean developing countries don't have a responsibility too.


Per capita is kind of a bizarre measure - for most developed nations, I'm sure there is a floor for carbon emissions, where maintaining a typical modern lifestyle - modern appliances, electronics, vehicles, etc. - is going to carry a certain footprint, which it would be hard to go below without major structural changes.

But at any rate, our carbon footprint is trending downward. We are down to our levels in 1990, and very close to where we were in 1970.

As for methane, I'd like to know where you get your information that we have had an increase in methane release. Because according to this study, performed by NOAA:
https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2453/US-methane-emissions-flat-since-2006-despite-increased-oil-and-gas-activity-study
in spite of natural gas production increasing by 46% since 2006, there has been no significant increase in methane emissions. Do you have a more authoritative source with access to better data than NOAA? They measured methane levels over 10 years at 20 different sampling sites around the country. No significant increase.


----------



## joen_cph

Russia has signed the Paris agreement. Note how Russia's CO2 emission culminated in 1990 and then went downwards, due to the country's recession in the 1990s - leaving the task of living up to the Paris agreement (a 40% reduction of the 1990-level in 2030) - somewhat easier.


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## Open Book

It's a complicated issue and per capita consumption is the thing that grabs everybody's attention, but that's not the sole thing we should be focusing on.


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## Guest

https://www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/

Another study of methane.


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## Open Book

DrMike said:


> Per capita is kind of a bizarre measure - for most developed nations, I'm sure there is a floor for carbon emissions, where maintaining a typical modern lifestyle - modern appliances, electronics, vehicles, etc. - is going to carry a certain footprint, which it would be hard to go below without major structural changes.
> 
> But at any rate, our carbon footprint is trending downward. We are down to our levels in 1990, and very close to where we were in 1970.


Yes, and there's a political movement to get developed nations to simplify their lifestyles in the idea that this will lower carbon emissions. And it would, but only locally. That chart, if it's correct, shows that there is a actually a bigger problem coming from the undeveloped parts of the world.

It's more of a guilt trip than a real solution to climate change to pare back developed societies and make them do with less. Though we could stand to do with a little less.


----------



## joen_cph

Open Book said:


> Yes, and there's a political movement to get developed nations to simplify their lifestyles in the idea that this will lower carbon emissions. And it would, but only locally. That chart, if it's correct, shows that there is a actually a bigger problem coming from the undeveloped parts of the world.
> 
> It's more of a guilt trip than a real solution to climate change to pare back developed societies and make them do with less. Though we could stand to do with a little less.


It will be a growth sector economically too, those who are most innovative as regards climate-related and sustainable products will get financial benefits from it, via international trade, in the long run.


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## Strange Magic

DrMike said:


> As for methane, I'd like to know where you get your information that we have had an increase in methane release. Because according to this study, performed by NOAA:
> https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2453/US-methane-emissions-flat-since-2006-despite-increased-oil-and-gas-activity-study
> in spite of natural gas production increasing by 46% since 2006, there has been no significant increase in methane emissions. Do you have a more authoritative source with access to better data than NOAA? They measured methane levels over 10 years at 20 different sampling sites around the country. No significant increase.


Interesting article from NOAA. Close examination reveals US methane release from oil and gas production increasing yearly by 3.4% plus-or-minus 1.4%. This means doubling methane introduction rates from these sources in 15 to 36 years, not an insignificant or "flat" rate, whether more or less than previously estimated. While we can celebrate US efforts to limit its methane release, the recent history of the independence and integrity of federal science research and publication dealing with climate change issues is an unhappy one under the current administration.


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## KenOC

Fire weather continues in California. BBC confirms two million people have had their electricity cut, not 800,000 as initially reported. Electric utilities think in terms of numbers of meters, not numbers of people!

"Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) estimates around two million people are without electricity after the utility company cut the power. This is the *largest power outage in California's history* and is meant to prevent the spread of wildfires."


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## Strange Magic

^^^^The only boon in the massive power cuts will be opportunities for backyard amateur astronomers to see the glory of the night sky as our great grandsires saw it. I recall reading that during a big power outage decades ago in Southern California, frightened people called the local police to report a bizarre, scary white band across the sky--their first look at the undimmed Milky Way.


----------



## Luchesi

Strange Magic said:


> ^^^^The only boon in the massive power cuts will be opportunities for backyard amateur astronomers to see the glory of the night sky as our great grandsires saw it. I recall reading that during a big power outage decades ago in Southern California, frightened people called the local police to report a bizarre, scary white band across the sky--their first look at the undimmed Milky Way.


The center of our galaxy sets at 11pm for them.


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## atsizat

What is wrong with Denver?

15°F (-9°C) currently?

https://www.weather.gov/bou/


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## Johnnie Burgess

Strange Magic said:


> ^^^^The only boon in the massive power cuts will be opportunities for backyard amateur astronomers to see the glory of the night sky as our great grandsires saw it. I recall reading that during a big power outage decades ago in Southern California, frightened people called the local police to report a bizarre, scary white band across the sky--their first look at the undimmed Milky Way.


I sure the people without power love not having electric.


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## Guest

Baron Scarpia said:


> https://www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/
> 
> Another study of methane.


The major differences that I see between this study and the NOAA study is that this study relies heavily on a lot of assumptions and then making computations based on those assumptions (by the way, that is not my take - reading the study, they in numerous places say that exact thing, for example the first sentence in section 7, "Our analysis contains two major assumptions . . ."). In contrast, the NOAA study is from direct measurement of methane over a 10-year period, and determining no significant increase. I'm not dismissing your study, but I tend to give greater weight to actual measurements over estimations based on assumptions.


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## Strange Magic

^^^^As I noted, one wonders why NOAA under Trump writes that figures showing the steady increase in methane release from oil and gas production--which calculate to the short doubling times I posted--are deemed "no[t] significant". My suspicion is that the article passed through the hands of an official "watcher" for anything that smacked of supporting the idea of AGW, and that watcher crafted the report's title and chief take-away points so that a quick scan would tell a "no worries here" story. Similar tales are cropping up of tinkering with government science studies by either non-scientists or those fearful of Trump-appointee "minders". I recently posted of a story about loss of rice production from AGW being killed within the Department of Agriculture, to the dismay of DoA plant scientists.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> What is wrong with Denver?
> 
> 15°F (-9°C) currently?
> 
> https://www.weather.gov/bou/


Denver's temperature dropped a record 64 degrees F In 24 hours to 12F at the air base. Climatologists were watching. Global warming was a small factor. The first cold core low of the season to reach that far south was a record breaker. The extra energy needed to pull cold air down before it could be modified by October conditions is impressive.

So the question I get is, why doesn't this happen every time in the Denver area? AGW isn't the biggest factor. This early in the season the contrast between north and south hasn't had time to influence the steering flow at 30,000 feet therefore this cold core low is moving more easterly. This means it had more time to organize the cold air up there before it pulled it south, and it was also farther to the west than they generally are, hitting Denver.


----------



## philoctetes

atsizat said:


> What is wrong with Denver?
> 
> 15°F (-9°C) currently?
> 
> https://www.weather.gov/bou/


In CA we seem to have skipped autumn entirely, except for the fires that now define this time of year. I usually travel in September-October and I've been wanting to visit the eastern sierras but every week a new extreme condition moves in... now it's low temps down in the sub-20F range.

I think this week's freeze, which covered half the country, hit bottom yesterday, but what's next...


----------



## Luchesi

philoctetes said:


> In CA we seem to have skipped autumn entirely, except for the fires that now define this time of year. I usually travel in September-October and I've been wanting to visit the eastern sierras but every week a new extreme condition moves in... now it's low temps down in the sub-20F range.
> 
> I think this week's freeze, which covered half the country, hit bottom yesterday, but what's next...
> 
> View attachment 125169


Will we get an Indian Summer warm enough to make it into the news?

Well, at least the West will get a warming ridge by the middle of next week, which will be about as warm as a normal ridge for this time of year. And then another strong storm will hit the middle of the US by Sunday the 20th. No noteable warmth for the MidWest or NE US.

There's only 4 planetary waves encircling the planet right now. This means that the storm tracks will reappear in the same location a few times, since the waves move slowly when they're so large.

If we make an estimate beyond the end of the month (which is as far as the numbers can tell us anything useful) it looks cool but not frigid - due to a continuation of this planetary wave.

CA is often west of these weather producers.


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## philoctetes

Luchesi said:


> Will we get an Indian Summer warm enough to make it into the news?


One outlook sez yes, another sez no. Why do they differ idk. The first one indicates a long fire season.


----------



## Ingélou

Summer is over - it's official. 

My computer is situated in the back bay window of our rental, which overlooks my old school grounds - it's now a private prep school. 

Today I saw the groundsmen take down the tennis nets & erect netball posts instead. 

Water's dripping from the gutter onto the conservatory roof, and it's a dank day on the riverbank today. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PS - But what do I know - it was a golden afternoon as we walked through the Museum Gardens.

That's the fascinating thing about weather. Ever-changing.


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## Guest

Rainy and much cooler here - high today will be 68F. We get very little snow here, so winters tend to be more wet than anything. Still, one of the advantages of living here in the South is that, even though some trees will drop their leaves, it still remains pretty green year round. The rain is much appreciated - we had gone almost a month with none.


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## KenOC

We're having a hard time getting into fall here. It's supposed to be 89F today!


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## Guest

Gorgeous weather today. Took my daughter to the Pumpkin Patch today for hay rides, petting zoo, and picking out a pumpkin, and we had gorgeous blue skies and temperatures just cool enough to be comfortable with a light sweatshirt. Couldn't have asked for better weather this time of year.


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## Joe B

Ingélou said:


> Summer is over - it's official.......
> 
> That's the fascinating thing about weather. Ever-changing.


Here in New England, Mark Twain said it best,

"If you don't like the weather in New England now, just wait a few minutes."


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## Luchesi

Joe B said:


> Here in New England, Mark Twain said it best,
> 
> "If you don't like the weather in New England now, just wait a few minutes."


Yes, the big blue marble is always rotating so waves of good and bad weather never stop parading eastward -- for us north of the Tropic of Cancer.


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## haydnguy

Thinking about the people in Dallas that got hit by a tornado tonight. From the initial reports it was a pretty violent one. Don't know how much damage.

The same "front" is headed our way. That's par for the course around here though. We're under a Tornado Watch at the moment but it might not turn out to be anything.


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## haydnguy

From Dallas:

Here is a screenshot I took from a video taken by @AthenaRising. No one has mentioned it so far but if you notice there are two "tornadoes" in the picture. They may be too far away from each other but when you have more than one they are called "multi-vortexes".

EDIT: The object on the left is actually a pine tree. Hard to tell.


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## haydnguy

2:35 a.m. local time

1 person reported killed in my state (not Texas) due to tree falling on house.


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## Luchesi

haydnguy said:


> From Dallas:
> 
> Here is a screenshot I took from a video taken by @AthenaRising. No one has mentioned it so far but if you notice there are two "tornadoes" in the picture. They may be too far away from each other but when you have more than one they are called "multi-vortexes".
> 
> EDIT: The object on the left is actually a pine tree. Hard to tell.


These collisions of air masses that produce tornadoes occur often in the spring and autumn in many small regions of the world. The logic is that with insufficient outflow and the subsequent slow increase in the energy of the global circulations - all cyclonic activity will become more powerful. Also the extent of the regions hit by tornadoes will get larger, because all the contributing factors are slowly changing in that way (more energy for low level convergence and stronger upper level diffluence). By how much is unknown until we see a trend, but this is bad news for humans and real estate etc. There's no good news like there was with the slightly fewer number of small hurricanes. The planet is so big and the changes are so slight that people don't notice, because dampenings (opposing cycles) have muddied the picture for the last decade.


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## KenOC

Summer continues here, with temps today well into the 90s F and several fires burning things up. Cooler now for a while, but fire weather continues with Santa Ana winds and very low humidity. Some day, sooner or later, fall will arrive (or so I'm told).

Meanwhile, PG&E is saying 2.5 million people may have their power cut on Saturday as the winds pick back up, to prevent arcing and fires.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Summer continues here, with temps today well into the 90s F and several fires burning things up. Cooler now for a while, but fire weather continues with Santa Ana winds and very low humidity. Some day, sooner or later, fall will arrive (or so I'm told).
> 
> Meanwhile, PG&E is saying 2.5 million people may have their power cut on Saturday as the winds pick back up, to prevent arcing and fires.


"Some day, sooner or later, fall will arrive (or so I'm told)."

We call the infamous Baja Low the "Decider", as President Bush called himself. It will be reaching its mature state (before moving east) by the second week of November and then it will heavily influence the rest of the US. This will be the beginning of what you notice as sustained seasonal change. But there are two cold core lows with an axis which will tickle you before that..

Infamous because there's so little data out there off the Gulf of Baja so the models have a difficult time. Years ago it was much worse. We ignored the crazy results from the models back then.

You're too far west and I'm too far south to 'enjoy' the weather patterns of the rest of the US and Canada. <grin>


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## Luchesi

Generac Holdings hit a new all-time high on Friday, bringing its 2019 gain to 82%. Power cuts in California are leading to a surge in demand for the company’s backup generators.


----------



## Ingélou

KenOC said:


> Summer continues here, with temps today well into the 90s F and several fires burning things up. Cooler now for a while, but fire weather continues with Santa Ana winds and very low humidity. Some day, sooner or later, fall will arrive (or so I'm told).
> 
> Meanwhile, PG&E is saying 2.5 million people may have their power cut on Saturday as the winds pick back up, to prevent arcing and fires.


Sorry to hear about the wild fires. Hoping things will get better.


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## Ingélou

Another golden (but cold) day today on the York river bank. As I type I can see so many trees - the ash trees are still green, but other varieties are every shade from yellow to russet.


----------



## Luchesi

Ingélou said:


> Another golden (but cold) day today on the York river bank. As I type I can see so many trees - the ash trees are still green, but other varieties are every shade from yellow to russet.


I had to look up "russet". Thanks, I will try to use it today at my recital. <grin> I've found that it tends to make ears perk up during a lecture.

When I was a child I hated to see the autumn colors because I was sad that the trees were dying. Grownups really enjoyed the phenomenon. It seemed weird to me. Fortunately, an older kid told me that, no, they're just reabsorbing large molecules so they don't have to produce them again in the spring. That made me feel much better. When I was young I wanted to be a dendrologist. I was fascinated by trees, and all plants actually. I didn't know why --- and I still don't know why..


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## Guest

The weather in California is become increasingly apocalyptic. The Kinkaid fire is enormous, rapidly encroaching on the city of Santa Rosa, and another high wind even is forecast in the area. It was just two years ago that the Tubbs fire approached Santa Rosa from the Northeast and burned 5% of the city. Now the Kincaid fire is approaching from the Northwest.

The Cal Fire statewide fire map is an irreplaceable resource.

https://fire.ca.gov/imapdata/index.html

If you zoom in the boundaries of the individual fires are shown on the map. Watching the fire grow day-by-day has been unnerving. Only rain will stop it. I think it will soon approach the burn area of the Tubbs fire and that should stop it's spread eastward.


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## Guest

Overcast and much cooler here, with lows in the upper 40s (F) in the mornings. We have been having quite a bit of dense fog in the early morning. I live up on a ridge, and drive along it looking down at the neighboring valley on my drive to my child's school in the morning, and it looks like a sea of white that you could just dive into.


----------



## KenOC

Ingélou said:


> Sorry to hear about the wild fires. Hoping things will get better.


Thanks for that! California is not burning up. There are two major fires impacting populous areas right now, one 50 miles north of me (the Getty fire, 656 acres) and the other 500 miles north (the Kincaid fire, 75,000 acres). Here there hasn't been so much as a whiff of smoke.

In fact, it's looking like it may be a rather quiet fire season, at least by comparison with recent experience: "In 2017, wildfires ravaged more than 1.5 million acres, killing 44 people and burning more than 11,000 structures. Last year, more than 1.6 million acres were burned, over 23,000 structures damaged or destroyed and 93 people died, CAL FIRE reported." (from CNN) I don't have a number but believe deaths so far are far lower than in the previous two years.

However, tomorrow and Thursday are forecast to be high wind and fire weather days, so we'll just have to see what develops.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Thanks for that! California is not burning up. There are two major fires impacting populous areas right now, one 50 miles north of me (the Getty fire, 656 acres) and the other 500 miles north (the Kincaid fire, 75,000 acres). Here there hasn't been so much as a whiff of smoke.
> 
> In fact, it's looking like it may be a rather quiet fire season, at least by comparison with recent experience: "In 2017, wildfires ravaged more than 1.5 million acres, killing 44 people and burning more than 11,000 structures. Last year, more than 1.6 million acres were burned, over 23,000 structures damaged or destroyed and 93 people died, CAL FIRE reported." (from CNN) I don't have a number but believe deaths so far are far lower than in the previous two years.
> 
> However, tomorrow and Thursday are forecast to be high wind and fire weather days, so we'll just have to see what develops.


It's easy to forget how bad it was last year, when the largest fires started in July. Summer was uneventful this year. On the other hand, last year a second wave of fires started in November, which caused the greatest loss of life. We're still in October and not out of the woods yet.


----------



## Iota

Luchesi said:


> When I was a child I hated to see the autumn colors because I was sad that the trees were dying. Grownups really enjoyed the phenomenon. It seemed weird to me. Fortunately, an older kid told me that, no, they're just reabsorbing large molecules so they don't have to produce them again in the spring. That made me feel much better.


And even after the leaves have fallen, fungi and invertebrates break down many of the other molecules/carbohydrates and feed them back into the trees roots, for dessert as it were, all ready for new growth in the spring.

A magical cycle. And all apparently because a big rock bumped into us billions of years ago and put the earth on a 23 degree tilt causing the seasonal cycle, and a few baroque violin concertos ...


----------



## KenOC

Baron Scarpia said:


> It's easy to forget how bad it was last year, when the largest fires started in July. Summer was uneventful this year. On the other hand, last year a second wave of fires started in November, which caused the greatest loss of life. We're still in October and not out of the woods yet.


That's right, the 2018 Camp fire, which killed 86 people, didn't start until November. But that was an exceptional loss of life, since prior to then deaths in California wildfires had been fairly uncommon. In fact, before that fire the deadliest CA wildfire killed 29 people at LA's Griffith Park way back in 1933!


----------



## Iota

Concerning California I was watching a programme last night, part of which followed the California Conservation Corps, which amongst other things goes round burning brush to create firebreaks, a hundred or so acres at a time! Pretty intense stuff. 
It also connects all sorts of young volunteers from difficult backgrounds with the land and gives shape and purpose to their lives, which by evidence of their own lips can be truly transformative. So on the face of it a remarkably positive project.

We took a sensational trip in California this summer, driving from LA, via Death Valley/Yosemite etc, to San Francisco, I'd never been before, and found it an extraordinarily beautiful place. I must admit the experience has made me feel much closer to the place and events there. I wonder if there is a realistic answer to this threat of fire every year, with global warming clearly exacerbating circumstances, or whether people will eventually move away over time. Major threats don't always seem to deter people though, Tokyo and earthquakes spring to mind.


----------



## Guest

Iota said:


> Concerning California I was watching a programme last night, part of which followed the California Conservation Corps, which amongst other things goes round burning brush to create firebreaks, a hundred or so acres at a time! Pretty intense stuff.
> It also connects all sorts of young volunteers from difficult backgrounds with the land and gives shape and purpose to their lives, which by evidence of their own lips can be truly transformative. So on the face of it a remarkably positive project.
> 
> We took a sensational trip in California this summer, driving from LA, via Death Valley/Yosemite etc, to San Francisco, I'd never been before, and found it an extraordinarily beautiful place. I must admit the experience has made me feel much closer to the place and events there. I wonder if there is a realistic answer to this threat of fire every year, with global warming clearly exacerbating circumstances, or whether people will eventually move away over time. Major threats don't always seem to deter people though, Tokyo and earthquakes spring to mind.


It may be necessary to avoid living in wilderness areas. Places like Paradise, which burned last year, may become untenable. Most populated areas in California are not very vulnerable to fire.

Another issue is the policy of putting out wildfires, which results in underbrush which is denser and more likely to burn. If fires are left to burn in undeveloped areas, the landscape may become less vulnerable to fire.

One concerning thing is a trend for forests not to grow back at all after a fire. This has not been a major issue in California so far, but there are forests in Montana and Idaho which burned and never grew back. Such circumstances are both a result and a cause of climate change.


----------



## Iota

Baron Scarpia said:


> It may be necessary to avoid living in wilderness areas. Places like Paradise, which burned last year, may become untenable.


Yet communities seem willing to tolerate surprisingly serious risk to remain where they are. A trait that is perhaps deeply embedded in the human psyche, better the devil you know etc. Quite apart from the logical considerations of energy/time saved in not having to start all over again.



Baron Scarpia said:


> Another issue is the policy of putting out wildfires, which results in underbrush which is denser and more likely to burn. If fires are left to burn in undeveloped areas, the landscape may become less vulnerable to fire.


Conceivably the very kind of brush the California Conservation Corps are pre-emptively burning under control, before nature does it for them.



Baron Scarpia said:


> One concerning thing is a trend for forests not to grow back at all after a fire. This has not been a major issue in California so far, but there are forests in Montana and Idaho which burned and never grew back. Such circumstances are both a result and a cause of climate change.


Indeed.


----------



## Guest

Iota said:


> Yet communities seem willing to tolerate surprisingly serious risk to remain where they are. A trait that is perhaps deeply embedded in the human psyche, better the devil you know etc. Quite apart from the logical considerations of energy/time saved in not having to start all over again.
> 
> Conceivably the very kind of brush the California Conservation Corps are pre-emptively burning under control, before nature does it for them.
> 
> Indeed.


What needs to happen is that sites of habitation are made defensible - a permanent burn resistant clearing between the city and the wilderness. That way a fire in the city doesn't get out and a wildfire doesn't get in (or at least can be defended against). That also means they can let fires burn and put the line of defense at the city, rather than at the source. The people who live out there resist this because they want to live "in nature."

I think the controlled burns are mainly meant to create defenses for high-risk wild/urban interface areas. A controlled burn which actually changed the nature of the forest would have to be as big as the huge fires themselves, which is not doable.


----------



## Iota

Baron Scarpia said:


> I think the controlled burns are mainly mean't to create defenses for high-risk wild/urban interface areas. A controlled burn which actually changed the nature of the forest would have to be as big as the huge fires themselves, which is not doable.


I'm sure you're probably right, though as I say the controlled burns were over more than a hundred acres, so by any measure quite sizeable. But really I know virtually nothing about this, simply what I learnt from one TV programme that sparked my interest ( .. and produced an accidental pun).


----------



## Guest

Iota said:


> I'm sure you're probably right, though as I say the controlled burns were over more than a hundred acres, so by any measure quite sizeable. But really I know virtually nothing about this, simply what I learnt from one TV programme that sparked my interest ( .. and produced an accidental pun).


Yes, by some measures a hundred acres is large. There is panic over a 500 acre fire that is threatening the Getty Museum in LA, and another 1000 acre fire threatening the Reagan Library. Those are urban interface fires. The biggest wildfire last year was more than 500,000 acres. To prevent such a fire by depletion of fuel in a controlled burn would require a comparable controlled burn!


----------



## KenOC

Baron Scarpia said:


> Yes, by some measures a hundred acres is large. There is panic over a 500 acre fire that is threatening the Getty Museum in LA, and another 1000 acre fire threatening the Reagan Library. Those are urban interface fires. The biggest wildfire last year was more than 500,000 acres. To prevent such a fire by depletion of fuel in a controlled burn would require a comparable controlled burn!


I believe last year a well-known politician advised us to carefully rake up all that fuel resting on our forest floors. Granted, that would take a whole lot of rakes! :lol: Or maybe we can just use our old people to pack it out...


----------



## Iota

Baron Scarpia said:


> Yes, by some measures a hundred acres is large. There is panic over a 500 acre fire that is threatening the Getty Museum in LA, and another 1000 acre fire threatening the Reagan Library. Those are urban interface fires. The biggest wildfire last year was more than 500,000 acres. To prevent such a fire by depletion of fuel in a controlled burn would require a comparable controlled burn!


Yes, that does indeed put the 100 acre burns into perspective! 

We spent a morning at the Getty Museum. An extraordinary and beautiful place, that was under a spotless azure sky that day. I very much hope it, and everything/everyone else under threat, survives. It must be incredibly scary.



KenOC said:


> I believe last year a well-known politician advised us to carefully rake up all that fuel resting on our forest floors. Granted, that would take a whole lot of rakes! :lol: Or maybe we can just use our old people to pack it out...


Ha ha!

(Like a wormhole in time seeing that pic!)


----------



## Guest

Iota said:


> Yes, that does indeed put the 100 acre burns into perspective!


The biggest wildfire I can recall was in the Ft McMurray Fire, in Alberta, Canada. 1,500,000 acres. The city of 88,000 was evacuated in one day.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


>


Was trying to place that, when it came to me. Led Zeppelin!


----------



## Luchesi

Iota said:


> And even after the leaves have fallen, fungi and invertebrates break down many of the other molecules/carbohydrates and feed them back into the trees roots, for dessert as it were, all ready for new growth in the spring.
> 
> A magical cycle. And all apparently because a big rock bumped into us billions of years ago and put the earth on a 23 degree tilt causing the seasonal cycle, and a few baroque violin concertos ...


 Every 40,000 years the tilt of the axis varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees. And this has changed the climates of the Earth many times within every cycle of 40,000 years. This should concern us because it's only a small change in the angle of the Sun.

Think about the timing and the ranges of the molten states and the masses and the trajectories of the two proto-planets. Only narrow ranges of these parameters result in the glancing blow needed to form our lucky Moon. 'Very lucky. Our Moon stabilizes our planet and the core we received protects us from the Sun and gives us the carbon cycle.


----------



## Taggart

Never mind the old furze gatherers what about these:








See Goats help save Ronald Reagan Presidential Library


----------



## starthrower

A super soggy Halloween in New York today. If anybody is going as a fireman tonight they picked the right costume!


----------



## Guest

Cold and wet here. Temperatures have dropped more than 20 degrees today, and it is predicted we'll get down to freezing tonight. Dreadfully grey and overcast, but hoping (for my kids' sakes) that the heavy downpouring rain is done for the day.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Low tonight is supposed to be 29 f.


----------



## KenOC

Is it that time of year again already? Well, I won't say a word. Not one word. But you can get an idea of the weather here from post #131 in the _California!_ thread...


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Is it that time of year again already? Well, I won't say a word. Not one word. But you can get an idea of the weather here from post #131 in the _California!_ thread...


It seems to me that that post is about the Ganzfeld Effect.


----------



## atsizat

In Fall 2019 so far, 

The lowest temperature recorded in Turkey was -9.6°C, which was recorded in a district municipality at an elevation of 2030 metres, located in Northeastern Turkey.


----------



## Guest

Trick-or-treating was so cold last night. We started the day in the mid 70s (F), but about half an hour into trick-or-treating, we were looking at 32F with wind chill! We raced from house to house, eager to get back to the warmth of home. At least the rain has left, and today we have cold clear blue skies!


----------



## atsizat

Today, the lowest temperature recorded in Turkey was -20.5°C, which was in a district municiapality at an elevation of 2030 metres, located in Northeastern Turkey. That is where I go in winters.

Coldest lows in Turkey today:


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> Trick-or-treating was so cold last night. We started the day in the mid 70s (F), but about half an hour into trick-or-treating, we were looking at 32F with wind chill! We raced from house to house, eager to get back to the warmth of home. At least the rain has left, and today we have cold clear blue skies!


Pagans used to put out offerings to placate forest gods and gremlins (apparently it always worked well <grin>) on the cross quarter day, which is halfway between the equinox and the solstice. So, we get the goodies on Halloween.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Was almost 70 degrees f this morning. Now it is 32 degrees f heading to 22 degrees f.


----------



## Luchesi

Johnnie Burgess said:


> Was almost 70 degrees f this morning. Now it is 32 degrees f heading to 22 degrees f.


Yes, the cold side of one of the 5 planetary waves is coming down on Texas. It's interesting. They don't often get pushed that far south but the planet is retaining more and more energy.


----------



## Totenfeier

The edge of the cold has reached down here to the gently rolling Foothills of North Carolina.Yesterday we had heavy rain, four snowflakes, and three sleet pellets, and the wind was brisk out of the northwest. Temps dropped below freezing by midafternoon; it was -8.8 C by my car thermometer this morning about 7:00 a.m.


----------



## KenOC

Fall is falling at last, so it seems. Sunny but temps in the mid-70s, a bit cool to go to the beach.


----------



## Guest

We dropped down to the low 20s (F) last night, and with wind chill it got down to 12. Today it warmed up into the 40s. But the low set a record for the lowest that early in the fall season.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Fall is falling at last, so it seems. Sunny but temps in the mid-70s, a bit cool to go to the beach.


 In the sky, Jesus is stung (kissed) by Scorpio (Judas) every year in the Fall (autumn). Jesus then 'falls' toward his death at the solstice. The Three Wise Men (the Belt of Orion) rise for us before the Christ Child (Sirius) during that time of our orbit, the time in which the Northern Hemisphere points farthest away from (above) the Sun. It's three days after that actual solstice that it's possible to see you that the Sun is moving back to the north and east again. These three days are in the Bible story too.


----------



## atsizat

Today, I experienced a day time temperature inversion where I am.

When I went up in elevation, the weather warmed up. The higher elevated part of the city was fried today due to the temperature inversion.

City center ( sea level) had a high of 22°C today while at the elevation of 420 metres, the high was 24.6°C.

I felt very hot at higher elevation.


----------



## elgar's ghost

0 deg. C right now. Doesn't feel cold at all - I have nothing on my feet and I've even opened a couple of windows to let in that nice autumnal air.


----------



## Luchesi

elgars ghost said:


> 0 deg. C right now. Doesn't feel cold at all - I have nothing on my feet and I've even opened a couple of windows to let in that nice autumnal air.


All this active weather around you. You're in the dullsville of the separation;


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> All this active weather around you. You're in the dullsville of the separation;
> 
> View attachment 126797


What do you think about day time temperature inversion?


----------



## elgar's ghost

Luchesi said:


> All this active weather around you. You're in the dullsville of the separation;
> 
> View attachment 126797


More than happy with that.


----------



## Judith

It is freezing in UK at moment but made vow that I would never complain about the cold again after the heat last summer. Was unbearable


----------



## elgar's ghost

Judith said:


> It is freezing in UK at moment but made vow that I would never complain about the cold again after the heat last summer. Was unbearable


Same here - so long as it's calm and dry you can give me chilly over hot and humid every time.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> What do you think about day time temperature inversion?


Yes, that was a strong inversion. The standard lapse rate we use is 4.4 Fahrenheit cooling per thousand feet (3.3°C per 304 meters). This is without any effects imposed by an upper air pattern, like you had there. In that chart, you might be able to see the ridge of heavier air, heaviest over eastern Turkey. These ridges rotate in the opposite direction of the planet and therefore they oppose the general flow. As this extra weight pushes down on the layers below, along with the faster radiational cooling of the ground at night compared to the cooling rate of the air above it (the specific heat of air is high compared to the ground), the result is these occasional inversions. No mixing allowed.

It's always been interesting to me that aside from the short range local effects the reason we have rain or clear is the direction of the flow up to the level of crystallization (5000 meters mean sea level). If the flow at that level is opposing the rotation of the earth then you get clear weather, but if it's flowing with the energy vector of the planet you get clouds (and maybe precipitation depending upon the other factors such as what's come to be called precipitable water).


----------



## Ingélou

Judith said:


> It is freezing in UK at moment but made vow that I would never complain about the cold again after the heat last summer. Was unbearable





elgars ghost said:


> Same here - so long as it's calm and dry you can give me chilly over hot and humid every time.


Me too. 
As a 'ginger', I've never liked heat.

Although it's cold, it's been bright - really lovely walking along the river in York.


----------



## Luchesi

Ingélou said:


> Me too.
> As a 'ginger', I've never liked heat.
> 
> Although it's cold, it's been bright - really lovely walking along the river in York.


Last week there was a day in which the temperature didn't quite reach 70F (21C). The people around here walking on the streets were wearing coats and pulling hoodies over their heads. They thought it was quite chilly. I grew up almost a thousand miles north of here so it always seems quite comical to see people dressed up like that with temperatures in the 60s. But the longer I live here the more I get acclimated to the hot weather and I do feel the cold myself now after many decades.
You can instantly tell the people who come down here to visit relatives or to escape the cold up north. They're in shorts and trying to catch a suntan! It's conspicuous here so that we actually have a name for them - we call them "snow birds". Everyone around here knows that term of endearment.


----------



## KenOC

…and the rains came. We start our rain year on Oct. 1 and average about 14 inches a year. Not much! October was dry. Now, right at the end of November, yesterday and today, we’ve had our first winter “storm” that’s dropped two inches. So we’re up to average for this time of year.


----------



## Guest

Spending Thanksgiving/late November down here at the beach in Alabama. Couldn't ask for better weather. Mostly clear skies - only those thin, wispy clouds. Temperatures only get down to the 50s overnight, and climb up to the 70s in the daytime. Still just warm enough to go in the ocean.


----------



## Room2201974

"Your Cadillac has got a wheel in the ditch
And a wheel on the track"

:guitar:


----------



## Totenfeier

We were teetering on the brink of a mild freezing rain event in the wee small hours, but now at 10:00 EST, it's transitioning to miserable cold rain. Temp is right at 0 C.


----------



## Luchesi

Well, we have a few more days of upper 60s and then we won't get that warm again consistently until February.

We have been warm above average, but now a large wave with its parade of disturbances will bring us down to averages or below. Oh well it was nice. With the shift to the east in the storm track over the past few years we no longer get those frigid outbreaks once a month, now they're once a year. When we don't get below 15F -10C at least once, many unexpected problems arise with insects.


----------



## Jacck

there was the winter solstice this night, the longest night of the year. Now it will start to tilt towards summer again


----------



## Luchesi

Jacck said:


> there was the winter solstice this night, the longest night of the year. Now it will start to tilt towards summer again


Ancient sky watchers knew that the sun appears to stop going south around the 20th/21st. Bonfires and sacrifices were needed to get it moving north again. By the 25th it's easy to see that it has started to move north again and the people could give thanks.

When the light from the supernova of 9100 years ago finally reached the earth in 185 CE the people thought this must mean something? right? It became Mithra's star because he was born on 25th of December (again the solstice) and this light was very bright (possibly -8 magnitude) from the 7th of December for about seven months! The Christians at the time were becoming more interested in the birth of Jesus, even though nobody was around to write down details - so a Christmas star made sense to them too.


----------



## Jacck

Luchesi said:


> Ancient sky watchers knew that the sun appears to stop going south around the 20th/21st. Bonfires and sacrifices were needed to get it moving north again. By the 25th it's easy to see that it has started to move north again and the people could give thanks.
> 
> When the light from the supernova of 9100 years ago finally reached the earth in 185 CE the people thought this must mean something? right? It became Mithra's star because he was born on 25th of December (again the solstice) and this light was very bright (possibly -8 magnitude) from the 7th of December for about seven months! The Christians at the time were becoming more interested in the birth of Jesus, even though nobody was around to write down details - so a Christmas star made sense to them too.


It is very likely that Christmas was superimposed on the pagan celebrations of winter solstice
http://miltontimmons.com/SolsticeandChristmas.html


----------



## Guest

We had a few wet and miserable days here, but today, on Christmas eve, we have beautiful blue skies and expecting a high today of 69! Tomorrow for Christmas we are expected to have a high of 66 with partly cloudy skies. I'm quite happy with that, but my son was really hoping for a White Christmas - not unheard of here in Alabama, but not as common as other places.


----------



## Strange Magic

Australia registers hottest day ever recorded there.

https://www.businessinsider.com/extreme-weather-australia-records-hottest-day-in-history-2019-12


----------



## Luchesi

Strange Magic said:


> Australia registers hottest day ever recorded there.
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com/extreme-weather-australia-records-hottest-day-in-history-2019-12


When you have good records going back a long time and then they're broken - you realize that there must be something going on at 30k ft (which is the flow that determines all the weekly weather windows in the temperate zones).

Added:
I looked at the numerical model for Australia and the steering flow that used to keep the southern regions of the continent cooler in the summer has shifted slightly to the south due to the increasing energy of the planet. It's bad luck that the continent is just slightly north of this semipermanent flow. It's only a matter of a few hundred miles, but it makes all the difference.

If we didn't have a cold Pacific current - summer's in Arizona and New Mexico would be changing the same way. It would be headline news.


----------



## Luchesi

Jacck said:


> It is very likely that Christmas was superimposed on the pagan celebrations of winter solstice
> http://miltontimmons.com/SolsticeandChristmas.html


What are the chances that a supernova blast reached the Earth 189 years earlier? And we just haven't found the remnant yet?

There's this idea;
The Star by Arthur C. Clarke - Teleplay by Alan Brennert - The Twilight Zone 1985 - S1 E13-3


----------



## KenOC

Looks like another good rain year in California. Down south here we’re well above normal (yes, it’s early) and the Sierra snowpack is also very healthy (yes, again it’s early). Another decent slug of rain expected up and down the state tomorrow and Thursday as well.

Merry Christmas all!


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Looks like another good rain year in California. Down south here we're well above normal (yes, it's early) and the Sierra snowpack is also very healthy (yes, again it's early). Another decent slug of rain expected up and down the state tomorrow and Thursday as well.
> 
> Merry Christmas all!


Yes, the wave at 20k ft and above is so wide and slow moving (and there's a less influential one behind it) that you're enjoying days of weather that usually occur over the middle of the US and to the east. Climatologists will be reviewing why the current global pattern is allowing this setup. People move to Southern CA for better weather.


----------



## KenOC

A bit more rain a day or two away. Meanwhile, here's what it's like here. My wife took this pic a couple of hours ago in Laguna Beach.


----------



## KenOC

The weather is looking fairly benign for most of the US over the next couple of weeks. Our weather is certainly doing OK - here's sunset over our small lake on New Year's Eve, taken by a neighbor.


----------



## Open Book

Precipitation which kept going back and forth from rain to snow to ice caused a power failure at 1:30 in the morning Dec. 31 of my New England town. I've come to dread winter because this kind of weather is becoming more common. Power failures happen almost every year and sometimes they last for days.


----------



## Luchesi

Open Book said:


> Precipitation which kept going back and forth from rain to snow to ice caused a power failure at 1:30 in the morning Dec. 31 of my New England town. I've come to dread winter because this kind of weather is becoming more common. Power failures happen almost every year and sometimes they last for days.


The NorthEast's winter weather is getting slightly wetter (due to warmer air above the gradient level between disturbances) and slightly more energetic (the global circulation). Both trends are up with no reversals so it's difficult to ignore scientifically.


----------



## Ingélou

It's a lovely day on York riverside this morning. Fresh and sunny. Like yesterday, a great start to a new decade.


----------



## haydnguy

This is a clip of a tornado that occurred in Dallas, Texas about 8 years ago. It shows the trailers of 18-wheelers getting thrown up in the air. Pretty amazing.


----------



## adriesba

It's currently around 13°F (~ -10°C) where I'm at in upstate New York. It got up to about 20°F (~ -7°C) today. The temperature is expected to warm just slightly in the next couple days. There is almost no snow on the ground at the moment, but some is expected tomorrow. A week ago we had temperatures up to 60°F (~ 16°C). Crazy!


----------



## Jacck

dust storm in Australia


----------



## KenOC

Winter seems to be drying up on us down here, but that's OK so long as the Sierras to the north get plenty of snow so we can have drinking water in the summer. Otherwise, beautiful weather in the 60s and 70s with plenty of sunshine. My wife loves the tree across the street and took this picture about three hours ago.


----------



## atsizat

Somewhere in Gümüşhane Province (elevation: 2535 metres) had the coldest low in Turkey today with -4.7°C.

Somewhere in Mersin Province had the warmest low in Turkey today with 20.5°C.


Lowest temperatures in Turkey today differ from -4.7°C to 20.5°C.


----------



## atsizat

Karpuzlu, which is a district municipality in Aydın Province, had the hottest high in Turkey today with 35°C.

Somewhere in Gümüşhane Province (elevation: 2375 metres) had the coldest high in Turkey today with -1.1°C.


Highestest temperatures in Turkey today differ from -1.1°C to 35°C.


----------



## Flamme

Hot and heavy, humid...The rain is in the air but still didnt fell so I feel like under weight...


----------



## atsizat

Somewhere in Ardahan Province (elevation: 2240 metres) had the coldest low in Turkey today with -5.8°C.

Somewhere in Hatay Province had the warmest low in Turkey today with 19.3°C.


Lowest temperatures in Turkey today differ from -5.8°C to 19.3°C.


----------



## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> Hot and heavy, humid...The rain is in the air but still didnt fell so I feel like under weight...


What triggers rain? Clue: hot and humid happens often, mostly without any rain.


----------



## KenOC

Looking very much like summer is here.


----------



## philoctetes

It's kinda fun to search "supercell"->video on Twitter these days


----------



## atsizat

Göle had the coldest low in Turkey today with -0.2°C.

Silifke had the warmest low in Turkey today with 26°C.


Lowest temperatures in Turkey today differ from -0.2°C to 26°C.


----------



## Dave Whitmore

After what has been a cool wet spring so far in NJ we just had a beautiful summer like day here with a high of around 85. More like this PLEASE!!!


----------



## atsizat

Somewhere in Bilecik Province had the hottest high in Turkey yesterday with 42.1°C.

Somewhere in Erzurum Province (elevation: 2629 metres) had the coldest high in Turkey yesterday with 11.6°C.


Highest temperatures in Turkey yesterday differ from 11.6°C to 42.1°C.


----------



## atsizat

Hottest highs in Turkey yesterday:


----------



## Flamme

Cold wind blows...But sun scorches...


----------



## atsizat

Highest temperatures recorded in Turkey today:


----------



## Flamme

Dark grey skies, wind and cold...But I will miss this weather and freshness in summerheat...The rain falls with sand in it...


----------



## atsizat

Highest temperatures in Turkey today:


----------



## atsizat

Today's low and high in my location (Edremit):

22.6°C and 36.3°C


----------



## atsizat

Inland İzmir recorded a high of 44.5°C but the center of İzmir (sea coast) recorded a high of 36.5°C only.


----------



## KenOC

Although the official Atlantic hurricane season is still a couple of weeks away, its first named storm has shown up early. Tropical storm Arthur is off the US East Coast, threatening the Virginia coast. However, it isn’t expected to amount to much.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Although the official Atlantic hurricane season is still a couple of weeks away, its first named storm has shown up early. Tropical storm Arthur is off the US East Coast, threatening the Virginia coast. However, it isn't expected to amount to much.


Is anyone curious about where Arthur is getting his energy this early in the global pattern? I was, when I saw Ken's post..

There's a small and very pretty cold core low with its center over Tennessee. It pressurizes the atmosphere over Arthur, just like the Gulf High (semipermanent) will do for any other cyclonic upstarts a little later in the season. 'Very curious that this relationship results in sustaining a circulation like Arthur. There's always something rare happening with this warming planet.


----------



## atsizat

Somewhere in Bolu Province had the coldest low in Turkey yesterday with 2.4°C.

Silifke had the warmest low in Turkey yesterday with 29°C.

Lowest temperatures in Turkey yesterday differ from 2.4°C to 29°C.



Tire had the hottest high in Turkey yesterday with 44.5°C.

Somewhere in Rize Province (elevation: 2422 metres) had the coldest high in Turkey yesterday with 8.7°C.

Highest temperatures in Turkey yesterday differ from 8.7°C to 44.5°C.


----------



## atsizat

34°C in my locatin (Edremit) at 1:19 pm

Dewpoint: 15.9°C


----------



## Flamme

All cars 2day covered in fine layer of ''dust'' or idk what...My neighbors left their clothes 2 dry outside, will have a big surprise when they pick it up!


----------



## atsizat

Today's low and high in my location (Edremit):

22.1°C and 34.5°C


----------



## atsizat

Highest temperatures in Turkey today:


----------



## atsizat

Inland İzmir recorded a high of 43.2°C but the center of İzmir (sea coast) recorded a high of 34.1°C only.


----------



## atsizat

Göle had the coldest low in Turkey today with -0.6°C.

Somewhere in Antalya Province had the warmest low in Turkey today with 30.1°C.

Lowest temperatures in Turkey today differ from -0.6°C to 30.1°C.



Torbalı had the hottest high in Turkey today with 43.2°C.

Somewhere in Erzurum Province (elevation: 2629 metres) had the coldest high in Turkey today with 10.4°C.

Highest temperatures in Turkey today differ from 10.4°C to 43.2°C.


----------



## atsizat

31.3°C in my location (Edremit) as of 12:19

Dewpoint: 17.9°C


----------



## atsizat

Currently 31.4°C in Edremit.

Dewpoint: 18.4°C


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> Currently 31.4°C in Edremit.
> 
> Dewpoint: 18.4°C


You could chart your data and figure stuff out. Make predictions and see how close you are. The thing is, weather is never exactly the same, due to large scale factors which never repeat exactly. ...but there are reliable patterns.


----------



## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> You could chart your data and figure stuff out. Make predictions and see how close you are. The thing is, weather is never exactly the same, due to large scale factors which never repeat exactly. ...but there are reliable patterns.


The high was 33.5°C and dewpoint reached 18.6°C at least if not higher in the afternoon.


----------



## atsizat

Sarıkamış Ski Resort in Kars Povince (elevation: 2315 metres) had the coldest low in Turkey yesterday with 2.1°C

Siliftke, which is a district municipality in Mersin Province, had the warmest low in Turkey yesterday with 31.1°C.

Lowest temperatures in Turkey yesterday differ from 2.1°C to 31.1°C.


Çine, which is a district municipality in Aydın Province, had the hottest high in Turkey yesterday with 43.3°C.

Somehwere in Rize Province (elevation: 2422 metres) had the coldest high in Turkey yesterday with 8.6°C.

Highest temperatures in Turkey yesterday differ from 8.6°C to 43.3°C.


----------



## atsizat

31.6°C in my location (Edremit) currently.

Dewpoint: 16.7°C


----------



## Flamme

Raining whole day...I got wet while cycling but dont mind, like the freshness and electricity b4 the storm...Somehow I started 2 dislike ''peaceful'' weather and started 2 pray 4 storms...We had some crazy storms last year with such lightnings that they fried 2 of my uncvles tv sets...


----------



## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> Raining whole day...I got wet while cycling but dont mind, like the freshness and electricity b4 the storm...Somehow I started 2 dislike ''peaceful'' weather and started 2 pray 4 storms...We had some crazy storms last year with such lightnings that they fried 2 of my uncvles tv sets...


There's a new finding that lightning strikes shower a circle of a few kms in diameter with gamma rays. You get a full dose of radiation -- approximately the amount you receive flying across a continent at 40,000 feet. Only pilots and crews need to worry about this much radiation.

I meant to ask you Flamme, how many languages you speak?


----------



## atsizat

Göle had the coldest low in Turkey today with -3.8°C.

Kaş had the warmest low in Turkey today with 28°C.

Lowest temperatures in Turkey today differ from -3.8°C to 28°C.


Tire had the hottest high in Turkey today with 43°C.

Somewhere in Erzurum Province (elevation: 2629 metres) had the coldest high in Turkey today with 13.5°C.

Highest temperatures in Turkey today differ from 13.5°C to 43°C.


----------



## Rogerx

The temperature falls, chill wind suddenly .


----------



## Luchesi

Rogerx said:


> The temperature falls, chill wind suddenly .


Yes. The omega block centered over the west coast of Norway is pushing cool air down from the northeast at 10000 feet. It makes a distinctive pattern. It will be overrun by Tuesday. And guess what's behind it on Thursday?

Interesting parade of distinct circulations? How does it happen? Wait 3 days, it will change.


----------



## Flamme

Luchesi said:


> There's a new finding that lightning strikes shower a circle of a few kms in diameter with gamma rays. You get a full dose of radiation -- approximately the amount you receive flying across a continent at 40,000 feet. Only pilots and crews need to worry about this much radiation.
> 
> I meant to ask you Flamme, how many languages you speak?


So a radiation ionizing shower!!! I speak fluently serbian, Im very fluent in croatian, bosnian, montenegrian, english, I speak basics of german etc...Y do u ask? I write like this 4 fuin and 2 short things up, if u have an impression I write like a ghetto dawg!!!:lol: Weather here is very windy and greyish but I dont mind even the humidity, many ppl dislike it but we'll miss it in scorching heat of summer...Everything is in bloom so my allergies have started...


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## Rogerx

> Yes. The omega block centered over the west coast of Norway is pushing cool air down from the northeast at 10000 feet. It makes a distinctive pattern. It will be overrun by Tuesday. And guess what's behind it on Thursday?
> 
> Interesting parade of distinct circulations? How does it happen? Wait 3 days, it will change.


That's why the song called "Blow The Wind Southerly"


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## Flamme

Crazy storm, thunderbolt n lightning very frightening! Turned off all appliances 4 the 1st time in years...Weather is getting crazier by day, something oimnous is riding our way through the clouds...


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## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> Crazy storm, thunderbolt n lightning very frightening! Turned off all appliances 4 the 1st time in years...Weather is getting crazier by day, something oimnous is riding our way through the clouds...


Years ago when friends moved here from Detroit their house was struck by lightning. It zapped away both their HD music collections! Why no backups? Well, it was years ago..


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## Luchesi

Small upper air waves were keeping us cool here. They have been washed out by the dynamics of an unusually strong Baja Low. (not a welcome turn to meteorologists because there's so little data over the Gulf of Baja). I don't remember such a rapid change from the usually dependable numerical forecast (it was a bust). Interesting. Now we'll be near or above 100F every day.

For most of the US summer will begin on June 12th this year, according to the models.


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## Flamme

Luchesi said:


> Years ago when friends moved here from Detroit their house was struck by lightning. It zapped away both their HD music collections! Why no backups? Well, it was years ago..


Last year we had some TERRIBLE storms with torrential rains and totally CRAZY lightning, almost like battles going on in heavens...Strange thing is most folx forgot all about it! Perhaps because so many strange things happen and they just move on...I cant because they ''fried'' my uncles 2 tv sets...Weather 2day gloomy but fine. It just makes me so sleeepy...


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## KenOC

Hot one today! Supposed to hit 100 F, easily the hottest day of the year so far. But the air is quite dry, so we should survive without melting.


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## Flamme

Hot and humid but also cloudy and windy...Wore long pants on work because I got burned by sun days before...Used some sunscreen. What is happening with the ''Fat old sun'' last 10 or so years??? I remember 80s and 90s well, then 2000s, and I know ppl spent whole days in sun, from 8 am to 8 pm w/o any bigger consequences, but today you cant even watch the sun for more than 10 seconds, before it stabs you in the eye...Strange thing indeed.


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## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> Hot and humid but also cloudy and windy...Wore long pants on work because I got burned by sun days before...Used some sunscreen. What is happening with the ''Fat old sun'' last 10 or so years??? I remember 80s and 90s well, then 2000s, and I know ppl spent whole days in sun, from 8 am to 8 pm w/o any bigger consequences, but today you cant even watch the sun for more than 10 seconds, before it stabs you in the eye...Strange thing indeed.


As the planet's energy content goes up - volumes of air will get drier or wetter. More contrast. IOW, if the volume would have been dry, it will be drier now due to the same adiabatic mechanisms, because they're very slightly stronger now. 
This generally goes unnoticed by humans because the complex cycles of cyclogenesis soon wash it out.


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## KenOC

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to move up the East Coast of Florida starting tomorrow. Not a big hurricane, but best have your preparations done!


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## Luchesi

The folks in NYC will count their lucky stars that we’re so early in the hurricane season, because this one is headed up the same path as Hurricane Sandy. It will thread the needle between the friction of the continent and the cold water of the mid-Atlantic. And it will collide with the energy in Pennsylvania too, like Sandy did.. But since the Rossby waves aren’t trending south yet, the configuration is wrong to sustain small tight cyclones such as hurricanes.. In simple terms, the configuration must circulate in harmony with the rotational vector of the planet, but this early it's still opposing the flow.
Hopefully nothing changes in the direction of 30k ft flow by the time NYC is hit late Tuesday, early Wednesday. It’s a long way off for the models to handle. ...5 rotations of the planet spinning in space, after all..


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## Caesura

Kinda boring, but so far this morning it is nice and sunny. I wouldn't be surprised if it got hot (more than 25° C or 77° F) later today too.


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## Ich muss Caligari werden

After some much-needed rain here, several cooler days (mid-70s F.) create an overwhelmingly autumnal feel, not to mention the skittering of drought-dried leaves across the road...


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## Luchesi

Ich muss Caligari werden said:


> After some much-needed rain here, several cooler days (mid-70s F.) create an overwhelmingly autumnal feel, not to mention the skittering of drought-dried leaves across the road...


Welcome to the forum.

The system which is giving you chances of rain will be drifting eastward and colliding with that hurricane. See post #1888.


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## Joe B

The hurricane came through yesterday. It was well west of where I live, but we got the wind instead of the rain. We just got power back an hour ago (out for 23 hours). Lots of trees down in different locations.


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## elgar's ghost

Another two-day heatwave due for the weekend - better use that time to strim my way through some more of the backyard jungle before the inevitable rain next week.


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## Guest

In Australia - 160k north of Sydney - it's a beautiful frost this morning. This usually means pleasant and sunny days (with ducted air-conditioning on standby, just in case!!). Spouse and myself love the cold weather and dread the return of hot weather. Our home is north facing and the sun floods in through large windows during winter, often saving on energy costs.


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## En Passant

Christabel said:


> In Australia - 160k north of Sydney - it's a beautiful frost this morning. This usually means pleasant and sunny days (with ducted air-conditioning on standby, just in case!!). Spouse and myself love the cold weather and dread the return of hot weather. Our home is north facing and the sun floods in through large windows during winter, often saving on energy costs.


Sounds great! It rained heavily here today which I like but I had to get the sheep/goats inside by myself. I was soaked to the bone, luckily it was also hot as heck.


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## Guest

En Passant said:


> Sounds great! It rained heavily here today which I like but I had to get the sheep/goats inside by myself. I was soaked to the bone, luckily it was also hot as heck.


Where are "here" and "inside"?


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## En Passant

Christabel said:


> Where are "here" and "inside"?


My apologies here is Scotland and inside is the "barn". I'm not a farmer I don't have the skills but we keep some livestock. It's great for the kids.


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## Guest

En Passant said:


> My apologies here is Scotland and inside is the "barn". I'm not a farmer I don't have the skills but we keep some livestock. It's great for the kids.


Would it not be warmer there are the moment, insofar as Scotland becomes 'warm'? I had always wanted to visit your wonderful country but I'm afraid travelling days are well behind me now - and there's Covid 19, as a sobering corrective to travel fantasies!!

"Warm" here in Australia is constantly 35 degrees, up to and including 45 degrees. That's when I wish I was dead!!!


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## En Passant

Christabel said:


> Would it not be warmer there are the moment, insofar as Scotland becomes 'warm'? I had always wanted to visit your wonderful country but I'm afraid travelling days are well behind me now - and there's Covid 19, as a sobering corrective to travel fantasies!!
> 
> "Warm" here in Australia is constantly 35 degrees, up to and including 45 degrees. That's when I wish I was dead!!!


Warm here is anything above 15 degrees Celsius my friend. Yes I feel at this point travel restrictions are a bit pointless but to stay on topic. I do hope you make it Scotland and the United Kingdom is a beautiful country. I've spent most my life in Europe but we decided to move back here to be closer to my Mother. It does rain a heck of a lot but I really enjoy it actually.

You're not too far from England either which is slightly warmer for the most part. Plenty of historical sites to visit and some of the best country side in the world in my opinion. If you ever do get out to Scotland I'll get the first round in.


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## Guest

En Passant said:


> Warm here is anything above 15 degrees Celsius my friend. Yes I feel at this point travel restrictions are a bit pointless but to stay on topic. I do hope you make it Scotland and the United Kingdom is a beautiful country. I've spent most my life in Europe but we decided to move back here to be closer to my Mother. It does rain a heck of a lot but I really enjoy it actually.
> 
> You're not too far from England either which is slightly warmer for the most part. Plenty of historical sites to visit and some of the best country side in the world in my opinion. If you ever do get out to Scotland I'll get the first round in.


Our days here at present are circa 15 degrees Celsius, which is fine by me. This morning we had 2 degrees but this wasn't a problem as one can always get warm but it's not so easy to cool down. We have lots of thermals (which we purchased to travel to Norway 5 years ago and when we lived in Vienna in 2011) in case the air-conditioning becomes too expensive. It runs at a comfortable 22.5 when operating. (I have an App on my Android that I can use to turn it on when we are out and it becomes cold.)

I was in London for a couple of months in 1971 and that's it. Nothing in the UK since then.

The weather will warm up here very suddenly; usually about mid-late September and then you wouldn't want to be here in our summers. Once upon a time we had Spring (doesn't that sound like the opening line to a Rodgers & Hart song??) but now we go straight from Winter to Summer.

But, nevertheless.......


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## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> Our days here at present are circa 15 degrees Celsius, which is fine by me. This morning we had 2 degrees but this wasn't a problem as one can always get warm but it's not so easy to cool down. We have lots of thermals (which we purchased to travel to Norway 5 years ago and when we lived in Vienna in 2011) in case the air-conditioning becomes too expensive. It runs at a comfortable 22.5 when operating. (I have an App on my Android that I can use to turn it on when we are out and it becomes cold.)
> 
> I was in London for a couple of months in 1971 and that's it. Nothing in the UK since then.
> 
> The weather will warm up here very suddenly; usually about mid-late September and then you wouldn't want to be here in our summers. Once upon a time we had Spring (doesn't that sound like the opening line to a Rodgers & Hart song??) but now we go straight from Winter to Summer.
> 
> But, nevertheless.......


Here in the US the Rossby waves slowly transition us into summer conditions from winter conditions. Your Rossby waves are far to the south so your Spring is much shorter than ours.


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## TxllxT

In Holland the biggest selling item at the moment is the 'above ground swimming pool'










Because of corona the public swimming pools & beaches have limited access. Now (with a 33+ Celsius heatwave for at least a week) almost each family with children have a pool containing 6000-8000 liter water in the backyard, which is really quite an investment of tap water. But as long as the children are happy, nobody seems to care environmentally.

How is it with the swimming pool buying hype in your country?


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## TxllxT

For those who like to see impressive thunder and lightning from a different perspective

1) Excellent German quality Donnerwetter (a pity the sounds are missing)
https://map.blitzortung.org/#6.17/51.89/6.956

2) A Dutch weather radar.
https://weerslag.nl/

3) A weather radar that shows the vertical buildup of thunder clouds.
https://w33r.nl/verticale_neerslagradar/

I don't know whether these weather programs function globally or only in Holland/Europe


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## elgar's ghost

Last Tuesday night was weird. Sheet and forked lightning which looked dramatic (well, for UK standards...) but no thunder and only a little rain. The thunder and the deluge came the night after but within a few hours the ground was almost completely dry again. Although not as unbearable as it was earlier in the week it's still quite clammy here - I loathe humidity with a passion.


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## Malx

elgars ghost said:


> Last Tuesday night was weird. Sheet and forked lightning which looked dramatic (well, for UK standards...) but no thunder and only a little rain. The thunder and the deluge came the night after but within a few hours the ground was almost completely dry again. Although not as unbearable as it was earlier in the week it's still quite clammy here - I loathe humidity with a passion.


You were lucky EG - overnight Wednesday into Thursday on the eastern side of Scotland we had 6 weeks rainfall in a few hours to accompany the lightning. One thunderclap, which must have been right above us, sounded and felt as if armageddon had arrived.
Sadly that weather moved north and in the early hours of Thursday morning created a landslide that has contributed to a fatal train derailment not far from Stonehaven.


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## Luchesi

elgars ghost said:


> Last Tuesday night was weird. Sheet and forked lightning which looked dramatic (well, for UK standards...) but no thunder and only a little rain. The thunder and the deluge came the night after but within a few hours the ground was almost completely dry again. Although not as unbearable as it was earlier in the week it's still quite clammy here - I loathe humidity with a passion.


Humidity. Picture this (I might get some quibbling from some other meteorologists in here), you live far to the north so the sun can't push the cyclonic flow to the north of you (except rarely under uncommon long wave patterns (the weather makes headlines when they collide)). The flow is in harmony with the planet's rotation, so humidity is churned up by the almost continuous positive vorticity.

What a place in the history of meteorology! when they were trying to figure it out as a general science, and no way of knowing it was a unique location..


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## ldiat

its hot here in Lancaster Ca. been over 104 last 5 days. and the fires...from Lancaster, one can view the smoke from one of the fires near a lake. lucky mountains are there between!!


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## KenOC

Laura looks like a dangerous one. Sustained winds are currently 110 knots or 140 mph or 220 kph, and may increase a bit further before she comes on shore in a few hours near the Texas-Louisiana border.


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## Merl

Weather forecast for Scotland for the next 12 months... 

September - Heavy rain 
October - Heavy rain 
November - Colder heavy rain, sun disappears from the sky, temperatures drop below freezing
December - Constant grey skies, freezing cold, hail, heavy rain, temperatures firmly in the minuses 
January - snow, rain, permanently grey, minus double figures
February - more snow, rain, grey skies, cold enough to freeze hell
March - Heavy rain, flooding
April - Heavy rain, sun reappears for a few minutes every 7 days for the first time since November
May - rain gets warmer
June - rain, Scottish Summertime (the 3 days before the schools break up for the summer) - usually temperatures reach a heady 21 degrees for three 3 days, rains from then on
July - warm rain
August - torrential rain, flooding


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## Malx

Merl said:


> Weather forecast for Scotland for the next 12 months...
> 
> September - Heavy rain
> October - Heavy rain
> November - Colder heavy rain, sun disappears from the sky, temperatures drop below freezing
> December - Constant grey skies, freezing cold, hail, heavy rain, temperatures firmly in the minuses
> January - snow, rain, permanently grey, minus double figures
> February - more snow, rain, grey skies, cold enough to freeze hell
> March - Heavy rain, flooding
> April - Heavy rain, sun reappears for a few minutes every 7 days for the first time since November
> May - rain gets warmer
> June - rain, Scottish Summertime (the 3 days before the schools break up for the summer) - usually temperatures teach a heady 21 degrees for three 3 days, rains from then on
> July - warm rain
> August - torrential rain, flooding


No wonder you failed to get that job with the Scottish Tourist Board


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## Chilham

Merl said:


> Weather forecast for Scotland for the next 12 months...
> 
> September - Heavy rain
> October - Heavy rain
> November - Colder heavy rain, sun disappears from the sky, temperatures drop below freezing
> December - Constant grey skies, freezing cold, hail, heavy rain, temperatures firmly in the minuses
> January - snow, rain, permanently grey, minus double figures
> February - more snow, rain, grey skies, cold enough to freeze hell
> March - Heavy rain, flooding
> April - Heavy rain, sun reappears for a few minutes every 7 days for the first time since November
> May - rain gets warmer
> June - rain, Scottish Summertime (the 3 days before the schools break up for the summer) - usually temperatures reach a heady 21 degrees for three 3 days, rains from then on
> July - warm rain
> August - torrential rain, flooding


And then there're midges!


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## Merl

Chilham said:


> And then there're midges!


We don't get many midges on the East Coast. The rain washes them away


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## KenOC

KenOC said:


> Laura looks like a dangerous one. Sustained winds are currently 110 knots or 140 mph or 220 kph, and may increase a bit further before she comes on shore in a few hours near the Texas-Louisiana border.


Laura is now close to landfall. Winds have increased to 150 mph (240 kph) and the weather people are warning of a "catastrophic" storm surge that may send seawaters up to 40 miles inland.

If you go out, don't forget your galoshes. The big ones. Glad I'm here and not there.

"Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm."


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Laura is now close to landfall. Winds have increased to 150 mph (240 kph) and the weather people are warning of a "catastrophic" storm surge that may send seawaters up to 40 miles inland.
> 
> If you go out, don't forget your galoshes. The big ones. Glad I'm here and not there.
> 
> "Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
> catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
> City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
> could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
> and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
> storm."


It's very unlucky that the high pressure system is so extensive this year (they say global warming) that there's a low pressure circulation, in the middle, nearing Dallas and sucking the storm inland, and then merging with it --- and keeping it energized against the frictional effects of the land.


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## Guest

Houston has been spared. Here in the northern suburbs of Houston (Montgomery County) there was an hour long rain shower yesterday, no substantial rain overnight, and it is forecast partly cloudy today. On the gulf coast to the east, well that's a different story. Storm surges above 10 feet. It will take time before reliable damage reports emerge.


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## Dorsetmike

Just about the heaviest rain I've seen in UK about half hour ago, now it's bright sunshine

Almost a river running off my patio








looks like fog but bigger drops.








Only place I can recall heavier rain was in Singapore.


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## KenOC

The weather people are forecasting 113F / 45C for tomorrow – that’s far hotter than anything I’ve seen in 22 years of living here. The electric people are already e-mailing to ask customers to turn off their air conditioners between 3PM and 9PM to save power and avoid rolling blackouts. We’ll see if anybody pays any attention to that…


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## Jacck

KenOC said:


> The weather people are forecasting 113F / 45C for tomorrow - that's far hotter than anything I've seen in 22 years of living here. The electric people are already e-mailing to ask customers to turn off their air conditioners between 3PM and 9PM to save power and avoid rolling blackouts. We'll see if anybody pays any attention to that…


45°C is really hot. Strange that it comes almost in autumn (september is beginning autumn here). The hottest I have personally experienced was 42°C and it was in Adana (Turkey). Adana is located by the sea and the combination of 42°C and the high humidity was brutal.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> The weather people are forecasting 113F / 45C for tomorrow - that's far hotter than anything I've seen in 22 years of living here. The electric people are already e-mailing to ask customers to turn off their air conditioners between 3PM and 9PM to save power and avoid rolling blackouts. We'll see if anybody pays any attention to that…


Yes, hotter than heat waves of the past, but also short-lived for its center in Colorado. Temperatures will fall 30 to 35F in 24 hours under this cold air invasion we can expect. The jet stream will be heading due south from Alaska to northern Texas, and the speed will increase to 150 knots as it races to fill in the mass deficit, which is the result of all the high pressure that has been building up.

Caused by global warming of a degree and a half? Well, the jet stream whiplashing appears to be stronger, but a lot of historical data would be needed. Very complicated not to compare apples and oranges here.. Theoretically, the high pressure ridging intensified by global warming results in blocking which allows these heat wave temperatures to build up, day after day.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> Theoretically, the high pressure ridging intensified by global warming results in blocking which allows these heat wave temperatures to build up, day after day.


My father was a meteorologist who did research on atmospheric blocking. It took me as a layman a long time to understand the connections in these large-scale climate phenomena. But then, how could such developments be simple? I certainly agree with the theory that humans are at least partly responsible for the earth getting hotter.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> My father was a meteorologist who did research on atmospheric blocking. It took me as a layman a long time to understand the connections in these large-scale climate phenomena. But then, how could such developments be simple? I certainly agree with the theory that humans are at least partly responsible for the earth getting hotter.


Yes, there's a lot to study, because what we experience as local weather is a weakened reflection of what's going on 2-6 miles above our heads. Now anyone can see it all on the internet.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Yes, hotter than heat waves of the past, but also short-lived for its center in Colorado. Temperatures will fall 30 to 35F in 24 hours under this cold air invasion we can expect. The jet stream will be heading due south from Alaska to northern Texas, and the speed will increase to 150 knots as it races to fill in the mass deficit, which is the result of all the high pressure that has been building up.
> 
> Caused by global warming of a degree and a half? Well, the jet stream whiplashing appears to be stronger, but a lot of historical data would be needed. Very complicated not to compare apples and oranges here.. Theoretically, the high pressure ridging intensified by global warming results in blocking which allows these heat wave temperatures to build up, day after day.


At the most basic level you can observe that the source of energy driving the jet stream is convection due to solar heating. More solar energy trapped, stronger convection, stronger jet stream. An increase in the average speed of the jet stream has been observed. With a stronger jet stream you get wider fluctuations superimposed on overall heating.


----------



## Luchesi

Baron Scarpia said:


> At the most basic level you can observe that the source of energy driving the jet stream is convection due to solar heating. More solar energy trapped, stronger convection, stronger jet stream. An increase in the average speed of the jet stream has been observed. With a stronger jet stream you get wider fluctuations superimposed on overall heating.


As the planet warms the temperature gradient between the tropics and poles weakens. This weakens the Arctic Jet and the Polar Jet so that a polar vortex will invade much father south. People will say those climo guys are crazy. "We've never, in my memory, had weather this cold. We're breaking long-standing cold temperature records!"


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> As the planet warms the temperature gradient between the tropics and poles weakens. This weakens is the Arctic Jet and the Polar Jet so that a polar vortex will invade much father south. People will say those climo guys are crazy. "We've never, in my memory, had weather this cold. We're breaking long-standing cold temperature records!"


Breaking both, but breaking warm temperature records more often. A bigger oscillation around a higher mean.

Where I used to live, San Luis Obispo California, the temperature recently reached 120 degrees F (49 degrees C). This is a town in Coastal California where almost no one has an air conditioner because the weather is so temperate. The highest temperature ever recorded in San Luis Obispo (dating back to the 1860's) was 115, and that was in 2017.


----------



## Luchesi

Baron Scarpia said:


> Breaking both, but breaking warm temperature records more often. A bigger oscillation around a higher mean.
> 
> Where I used to live, San Luis Obispo California, the temperature recently reached 120 degrees F (49 degrees C). This is a town in Coastal California where almost no one has an air conditioner because the weather is so temperate. The highest temperature ever recorded in San Luis Obispo (dating back to the 1860's) was 115, and that was in 2017.


Five degrees in a few years when there's been less than two degrees warming since 1860. This is what happens due to the dynamics of the huge planetary waves.


----------



## KenOC

The Atlantic is busy:

2 disturbances unlikely to spawn cyclones
1 disturbance likely to spawn a cyclone
1 tropical depression (Renee) likely to peter out
1 tropical depression (20) forecast to become a hurricane
1 tropical storm (Sally) forecast to hit the Louisiana/Mississippi border area as a hurricane in about 36 hours
1 hurricane (Paulette) forecast to hit Bermuda in about 24 hours.


----------



## KenOC

Tropical storm Sally is now officially a hurricane with winds to 90 mph and the possibility of growing even stronger. It is forecast to make landfall in southern Louisiana near New Orleans tonight. In addition to high winds, heavy rains and a storm surge to eleven feet are expected to test the levees – which didn’t do too well last time around, with Katrina.


----------



## KenOC

Sally has come ashore and, besides the hurricane winds, things are a bit damp. The current Weather Bureau public advisory says:

"Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional
rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts
possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west
of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10
to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic
and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major
river flooding, is unfolding."

Where I live, the average rainfall is about 13 inches _per year_!


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> Five degrees in a few years when there's been less than two degrees warming since 1860. This is what happens due to the dynamics of the huge planetary waves.


Great posts, guys ... and scary stuff.


----------



## Luchesi

On about Tuesday the 20th the Eastern US will get its first cold weather of the season. It's surprisingly late this year.


----------



## KenOC

The Atlantic has had so many cyclones this season that they've run right through the alphabet in naming them. Now they're into the Greek alphabet. So, hurricane Delta has scraped across the Yucatan Peninsula and seems aimed at the US gulf coast on Friday with sustained winds of up to 115 mph (185 kph). The likely track is centered on Louisiana.

The usual hazards: wind, some embedded tornados, violent surf, storm surge, and huge amounts of rain. Looks like it'll be damp in the Big Easy once again!


----------



## Jacck

Does anyone know if there is a way, how to predict an inversion? I would like to photograph it from a mountain top (1000 m), there is a cottage where you can stay overnight, but I would need to predict the inversion at least a day before.

this is the mountain and the inversion


----------



## Luchesi

Jacck said:


> Does anyone know if there is a way, how to predict an inversion? I would like to photograph it from a mountain top (1000 m), there is a cottage where you can stay overnight, but I would need to predict the inversion at least a day before.
> 
> this is the mountain and the inversion


A meteorologist can tell you when there'll be an inversion in the next three or four days. But the strength of the inversion will be difficult to forecast, unless it's an obvious synoptic pattern (quite rare). I would think a strong inversion would be needed for noticeable optical results.

... Helpful as mud, I know.  Sorry. But if you talk to a meteorologist, he would show you the complications (in the charts) in your area and then maybe you could do it yourself using daily info off the Internet.


----------



## Jacck

Luchesi said:


> ... Helpful as mud, I know. Sorry. But if you talk to a meteorologist, he would show you the complications (in the charts) and then maybe you could do it yourself using daily info off the Internet.


thanks anyway. I was thinking if it comes after a rainy day, or sunny day, or maybe if it can be predicted from the air pressure etc. But I think it is quite common here in the autumn. Often times you have fog in the valleys and sunny on mountain tops (ie an inversion).


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## Totenfeier

I'm still slightly within the cone of the remnants of Hurricane Delta; forecasts for the next 36 hours or so are that we could get anywhere between 5 to 12 cm of rainfall, causing possibly areal flooding of ditches, streams and creeks, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Temp 18C.


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## Luchesi

"Red sky at night, sailor's delight; red sky in morning, sailors take warning."

It's usually true if you live north or south of 30 degrees latitude.


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## Luchesi

The models say that a strong hurricane will hit Florida on Sunday the 25th.


----------



## atsizat

The high was 32.3°C today.

And what is interesting is that it happened with cloudy weather. After that, a storm started and then it rained.


----------



## atsizat

21.8°C at 1 am.

Cloudy.


----------



## atsizat

And let me say that dewpoint is as high as 17°C here.

Humidity is high.


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> The high was 32.3°C today.
> 
> And what is interesting is that it happened with cloudy weather. After that, a storm started and then it rained.


For forecasters this will be a wild two weeks or so for the North Atlantic (shipping) and then France and then the UK. Just light rain in parts of Turkey. A rare retrograding cold core low in the Atlantic and then a section hits France. This monster will hold back the normal weather flow from the UK, so then it will be stronger when the next cold core low hits the UK. As can be expected the models don't agree with each other, and this makes forecasting difficult.

A rogue wave could be generated as this monster stops retrograding, and those can slice a large ship in half. No survivors unless there's a ship nearby..


----------



## atsizat

27.6 degrees at the moment. Sunny.

Dewpoint is 12 degrees.


----------



## atsizat

The high was 29.9°C in İzmit yesterday but it was 31.5°C just 8 km east of İzmit.


----------



## Merl

Cloudy and dull. 8 degrees. No sign of the sun. A typical Scottish day.


----------



## Malx

Merl said:


> Cloudy and dull. 8 degrees. No sign of the sun. A typical Scottish day.


All the more reason to stay indoors and listen to music - no problem.


----------



## Luchesi

Merl said:


> Cloudy and dull. 8 degrees. No sign of the sun. A typical Scottish day.


Dull now, but wait a day and a half. UK gets hit and then France gets hit harder. Then the UK gets two more hits before the end of the month. These seem more intense than usual, but i don't have much experience with the Uk. I forecasted at Mildenhall only briefly. Merely looking at charts is a poor substitute for watching the weather for many seasons.


----------



## Totenfeier

First frosts of the season Saturday and Sunday morning.


----------



## atsizat

17 degrees here at 3:15 am. Cloudy.


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> The models say that a strong hurricane will hit Florida on Sunday the 25th.


As of today that seems rather unlikely.


----------



## atsizat

Early hours in the morning, It was 14 degrees. I felt the need to put something light on my t-shirt.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Sky is leaking here


----------



## atsizat

23.3 degrees in the afternoon.


----------



## Roger Knox

Atsizat: Please send us some sunny Turkish weather! Let me explain. Within a few blocks of where I live we have three (3) Turkish coffee houses run by recent immigrants from Turkey. Unfortunately because of Covid19 restrictions one cannot eat or drink indoors at any public place. So imagine me sipping my delicious Turkish roast, nibbling on açma, out under a dripping wet awning -- all because of "British" weather.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> As of today that seems rather unlikely.


Yes, but I'm actually quite pleased it showed us the new formation area south southwest of Cuba, 'way back before the 11th of October. This is very impressive. This area can be seen forming at this time, scattered heavy rain will follow. But now the model says that the hurricane in the Atlantic will be strong enough to produce low-level windshear over that formation area - and no hurricanes will develop there.

By coincidence, the models are now forecasting another hurricane to form farther southeast of Cuba and then start tracking north by November 6th. Hopefully there won't be enough warm water that late in the year, because low-level windshear won't save us this time.. That's been one of the expected dangers of global warming, late season hurricanes like Sandy. Because the sun is allowing the waves of energy to reach farther south and if one of these hurricanes links up with that energy, like Sandy did, there will be damage even in November.


----------



## atsizat

Today's high was 24.3°C


----------



## Dan Ante

Dorsetmike said:


> Sky is leaking here


Could be the big man having a leak


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Atsizat: Please send us some sunny Turkish weather! Let me explain. Within a few blocks of where I live we have three (3) Turkish coffee houses run by recent immigrants from Turkey. Unfortunately because of Covid19 restrictions one cannot eat or drink indoors at any public place. So imagine me sipping my delicious Turkish roast, nibbling on açma, out under a dripping wet awning -- all because of "British" weather.


Your cold air for the change of season won't arrive until at least second week of November. Good weather for Toronto, at least temperature-wise. The AGW delay of autumn and Spring by a week or two every year recently was expected by the climatologists.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> Your cold air for the change of season won't arrive until at least second week of November.


Thank you for the timely prediction! Even a week of milder weather would be welcome. About 20 years ago my late meteorologist father told me they use four climate models each running on top supercomputers.

Let's hope the latest hurricane threat farther southeast from Cuba doesn't materialize.


----------



## atsizat

Yesterday's high was 25.9°C.

For Sunday, forecast high is 28°C.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Thank you for the timely prediction! Even a week of milder weather would be welcome. About 20 years ago my late meteorologist father told me they use four climate models each running on top supercomputers.
> 
> Let's hope the latest hurricane threat farther southeast from Cuba doesn't materialize.


 I have to say I'm as impressed by numerical weather products as anyone in or out of the field. When the runs first became available to us they were only useful to get our thoughts together, showing us which part of the theory would be involved (we have idealized set ups which we refer to, and they endlessly repeat). 
Around about the 1990s the computers were about equal in accuracy to the human forecasters. But now, so much improvement and experience and tweaking and understanding and speed has accumulated...


----------



## annaw

+6 degrees, cloudy and rainy. Probably time to start taking D vitamin supplements daily again .


----------



## Flamme

Unusually warm in the sun but the cold bites in the shadow..


----------



## atsizat

Yesterday's high was 28.6°C


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> Yesterday's high was 28.6°C


You're so lucky. Our orbital attributes don't affect you, because you're so far south that the sun's intensity hasn't changed much for you. It's an interesting geometry. Later-on you will receive the globs of cold air.


----------



## KenOC

Another one! Hurricane Zeta, with 110 mph (175 km/h) sustained winds, has just come ashore in Louisiana, and its eye is approaching New Orleans. This is the fifth named storm this year to move north across the Gulf of Mexico and hit Louisiana.


----------



## Luchesi

^^^^^^
Yes, those unlucky people!
Here's a speculation. The logic has been that increased low-level windshear will inhibit the formation of cyclonic circulations which grow in intensity due to the chimney effect and become hurricanes as the planet heats up and there's more energy available for all the wind patterns to gain energy. So the prediction has been that there will be fewer hurricanes, but the ones that do form will be stronger because of warmer water and more intense wind energy all the way up to 40,000 feet. 
This effect is small and will be difficult to see, but maybe we are seeing it this year… because the models have been trying to form hurricanes south of Cuba BUT they seem to fall apart and then form farther west. The numbers say one thing, but reality is more complicated. And the data grid is only as good as what we can pay for. The Yucatan peninsula will lift the low-level windshear all around it, which will allow the formation of hurricanes and they will track north. 


When we eventually have 10 years of watching this phenomenon it will likely be seen as an early indication of climate change. This resulting battering of Louisiana is an unexpected outcome. Humans aren't very good at imagining complicated sequences of outcomes like this.


----------



## Flamme

Much colder although the sun is shining...I kinda miss the snow although I like the warmer weather.


----------



## Joe B

Yesterday we got 3.5 inches of snow in northeastern CT. It looks beautiful, but I'm really not ready for winter yet. I've still got about 3 chords of wood sitting in the driveway. Anyway, I lit my first fire in the stove a few minutes ago. The house is getting warmer by the minute. It's 36 deg. F outside right now. It will probably get to 80 deg in the house in a couple of hours. Heating with wood is 'all or nothing'. But it does make it nice and cozy.


----------



## Flamme

Rain, rain, rain...Today on the cemetery, the gloomy skies, the wind blowing through trees, screeching, the crows caving, the overwhelming feeling of dread and an warning omen of things to come...


----------



## KenOC

There's a strong hurricane in the Caribbean, which they say is rare this late in the season. Hurricane Eta has sustained winds of 130 mph/210 kph and is aimed primarily at Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala, preceding a turn north into Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Its winds are expected to increase to 150 mph/240 kph before landfall. There's a chance it could reform after that and head north, once more, to the US Gulf Coast.


----------



## KenOC

Eta is now at 150 mph/240 kph, the third strongest November Pacific hurricane on record. It’s just now coming on shore in Nicaragua, moving very slowly, and is expected to dump up to 3 feet/1 meter of rain along its path. The storm surge will be as high as 21 feet. Watch out!


----------



## Strange Magic

Today is truly a Beautiful Day, but the forecast for very dangerous storms ahead is worrisome.o


----------



## Guest

We are having a cool and rather wet spring this year on east coast of Australia (NSW). There were fires here last summer and the declarative "Australia burns" has been diminished by humidity and feverish growth of vegetation. It's great to see so much rain and our dams are all virtually full despite one climate 'expert' declaring 'the dams will never be full again and the rivers will run dry'. Ah, no. On that basis we built a few extravagantly expensive desalination plants which have remained idle for years but cost millions and millions to maintain.


----------



## Flamme

Although sunny it gets mighty cold, turned the heat on for the night...This morning I cycled to work and it was soo foggy, like in a horror movie!!!


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> Although sunny it gets mighty cold, turned the heat on for the night...This morning I cycled to work and it was soo foggy, like in a horror movie!!!


You mightn't know the film "*Midnight Lace*" with Doris Day; fog featured hugely in that terrifying noir thriller. "Oh, Mrs. Preston..."!! (shudder)


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> We are having a cool and rather wet spring this year on east coast of Australia (NSW). There were fires here last summer and the declarative "Australia burns" has been diminished by humidity and feverish growth of vegetation. It's great to see so much rain and our dams are all virtually full despite one climate 'expert' declaring 'the dams will never be full again and the rivers will run dry'. Ah, no. On that basis we built a few extravagantly expensive desalination plants which have remained idle for years but cost millions and millions to maintain.


Having desalinization plants ready to go in Australia in case the horrid droughts return with a vengeance sounds like a better idea in the long run than our $300,000,000 yearly subsidy to our aging South Jersey nuclear reactors. I remember when "electricity would be too cheap to meter" during the glory heydays of atomic power. How about a trade? 

https://www.njspotlight.com/2020/10...al-subsidies-for-south-jersey-nuclear-plants/


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Having desalinization plants ready to go in Australia in case the horrid droughts return with a vengeance sounds like a better idea in the long run than our $300,000,000 yearly subsidy to our aging South Jersey nuclear reactors. I remember when "electricity would be too cheap to meter" during the glory heydays of atomic power. How about a trade?
> 
> https://www.njspotlight.com/2020/10...al-subsidies-for-south-jersey-nuclear-plants/


But we've been told we've been through our worst drought EVER and these still haven't been necessary. Water storage in Sydney, it should be noted, was built to accommodate 1.5 million people. Currently Sydney is home to beyond 5 million. Even then it didn't run dry!!

Decades ago I remember reading about your reactor problem on Three Mile Island, I think it's called. Nuclear technology has substantially advanced since those bad old days and these are much safer. Of course, you shouldn't ever build them in geologically unstable places like Japan!! Bad idea.

Right now it's 20 degrees here just north of Sydney on 8th November. Usually it would be around 30 degrees at this time of year and dry. Just 30km down the road towards the coast they get rain much more regularly than we do. It's as though there's a person at the halfway point with a hand raised in the air, "come no further"! We have had very light rain today and the grass is growing like the clappers. We have a long hedge at the rear to block out our neighbours; it's a native shrub and is about 150 feet long. It has suffered during droughts and never become profuse. This year it is actually growing. But, wait....it is being consumed by a Calypso Beetle for which there is no known effective chemical treatment. I'm over it.


----------



## Luchesi

^^^^^^
Both slightly worse droughts and flooding are due to the excess energy of global warming. How much of it? Due to feedbacks it's a little worse than the warming alone.
And
Both costly hot spells and dangerous cold snaps which break records are also due to the excess energy of global warming intensifying the weather waves. You'd have to see a chart.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> ^^^^^^
> Both slightly worse droughts and flooding are due to the excess energy of global warming. How much of it? Due to feedbacks it's a little worse than the warming alone.
> And
> Both costly hot spells and dangerous cold snaps which break records are also due to the excess energy of global warming intensifying the weather waves. You'd have to see a chart.


This poem about Australia was written in 1908:

"MY COUNTRY"

The love of field and coppice
Of green and shaded lanes,
Of ordered woods and gardens
Is running in your veins.
Strong love of grey-blue distance,
Brown streams and soft, dim skies
I know, but cannot share it,
My love is otherwise.

I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
*Of droughts and flooding rains*.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
*Her beauty and her terror*
The wide brown land for me!

The stark white ring-barked forests,
All tragic to the moon,
The sapphire-misted mountains,
The hot gold hush of noon,
Green tangle of the brushes
Where lithe lianas coil,
And orchids deck the tree-tops,
And ferns the warm dark soil.

Core of my heart, my country!
*Her pitiless blue sky,
When, sick at heart, around us
We see the cattle die*
But then the grey clouds gather,
And we can bless again
The drumming of an army,
The steady soaking rain.

Core of my heart, my country!
*Land of the rainbow gold,
For flood and fire and famine
She pays us back threefold.
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze ...
*
An opal-hearted country,
A wilful, lavish land
All you who have not loved her,
You will not understand
though Earth holds many splendours,
Wherever I may die,
I know to what brown country
My homing thoughts will fly.


----------



## Dan Ante

Strange Magic said:


> Having desalinization plants ready to go in Australia in case the horrid droughts return with a vengeance sounds like a better idea in the long run than our $300,000,000 yearly subsidy to our aging South Jersey nuclear reactors. I remember when "electricity would be too cheap to meter" during the glory heydays of atomic power. How about a trade?
> 
> https://www.njspotlight.com/2020/10...al-subsidies-for-south-jersey-nuclear-plants/


Atomic power?? just one mishap like the Chernobyl disaster is all it takes, thank the lord NZ is nuclear free.


----------



## Guest

Dan Ante said:


> Atomic power?? just one mishap like the Chernobyl disaster is all it takes, thank the lord NZ is nuclear free.


What a magnificent country you have. Been there twice; in 2017 and 2018, on tours of both south and north island - caught the train from Greymouth to Christchurch and from Wellington to Auckland. Magic trips. Rotarua; pass. Mt. Cook. Magic. Milford Sound. Magic. Franz Josef Glacier. Magic. Queenstown. Gorgeous. Wellington Intercontinental Hotel. Gold.
Fantastic infrastructure, geared for tourism. Do it, people!!

But the sand flies on the south island!!!?? Take insect repellent.


----------



## Dan Ante

Christabel said:


> What a magnificent country you have. Been there twice; in 2017 and 2018, on tours of both south and north island - caught the train from Greymouth to Christchurch and from Wellington to Auckland. Magic trips. Rotarua; pass. Mt. Cook. Magic. Milford Sound. Magic. Franz Josef Glacier. Magic. Queenstown. Gorgeous. Wellington Intercontinental Hotel. Gold.
> Fantastic infrastructure, geared for tourism. Do it, people!!
> 
> But the sand flies on the south island!!!?? Take insect repellent.


Thanks Christabel, unfortunately the hospitality industry is having a hard time with the boarder restrictions but what choice do we have?


----------



## Malx

This might be the most pointless post I'll ever make but here goes....

Today its raining here in Scotland!


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> This poem about Australia was written in 1908:
> 
> "MY COUNTRY"


Australia will continue to be impacted by climate change, and it will get worse. This is unavoidable, because the large waves which you want to keep your continent moderated have been pushed slightly to the south with the warming of the midlevels. It's only been a shift of about a hundred miles so far, but the warming has just begun.

For millions of years Australians have drifted north northeast, slowly moving farther north of those moderating planetary waves, while most of the continent still remains south of the tropical moisture easterlies. Other southern continents like South America and Africa don't have this problem (because they're narrow enough down south).


----------



## Flamme

Such fooog, omg...I got up early and went to our office in a near by village on my bike...I say near by but its like 40 km there and back...Cold and dump and the thickness of the fog was like, incredible!!! This from an overpass, over the highway where you couldn't see literally nothing under!!!I could have gone by bus but I wanted to test myself, with cars and trucks ''whizzing'' behind me...


----------



## KenOC

Eta is still in the news as it has sprung back to life as a tropical storm after its near-destruction in the mountains of Central America. It has since crossed central Cuba, moving north, and is forecast to move westward, sideswiping south Florida, before turning north again toward the Gulf Coast at hurricane strength. Not a major hurricane, it appears, because it probably won't build back up to its earlier Cat-4 strength - but still, more than a mere nuisance!


----------



## KenOC

In other news, this weekend we’re having our first rain since the spring (a totally dry summer is not at all unusual here). The first half of the summer was cooler than usual, but excessive heat ruled during the last half. Now there has been a sudden drop of mid-day temps of over 20 degrees Fahrenheit as the first storm of the season has rolled in. Heavy showers and even a couple of small but noisy thunderstorms -- it’s a nice change. :clap:


----------



## Luchesi

The models handled this hurricane very well. No human forecaster, weeks ago, would stick their neck out so far as to agree with the circuitous path they had laid out for this long-lived storm. But the models don't care about embarrassment. :lol:

There's another intense and closed circulation to hit the Yucatan on Friday the 20th. The models expect the water to be warm enough that late this year. I'd bet against it. Has there been this much warming building up in the Caribbean? The typhoons in the Pacific have been eye-opening.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> In other news, this weekend we're having our first rain since the spring (a totally dry summer is not at all unusual here). The first half of the summer was cooler than usual, but excessive heat ruled during the last half. Now there has been a sudden drop of mid-day temps of over 20 degrees Fahrenheit as the first storm of the season has rolled in. Heavy showers and even a couple of small but noisy thunderstorms -- it's a nice change. :clap:


After your rain, the Northwest will be slammed by wave after wave of rain. I'm counting five separate systems. You'll be glad it rarely rains in southern California..


----------



## Guest

Dan Ante said:


> Thanks Christabel, unfortunately the hospitality industry is having a hard time with the boarder restrictions but what choice do we have?


Get your economy going again and protect the vulnerable in the meantime. The younger generations have a right to live, to enjoy economic prosperity and to enjoy freedom. Those in the risk demographic can take steps to minimize danger with social distancing etc.

But we've reached peak 'nanny' when we reserve the right to die of cancer or heart disease. Life just isn't like that!!


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Australia will continue to be impacted by climate change, and it will get worse. This is unavoidable, because the large waves which you want to keep your continent moderated have been pushed slightly to the south with the warming of the midlevels. It's only been a shift of about a hundred miles so far, but the warming has just begun.
> 
> For millions of years Australians have drifted north northeast, slowly moving farther north of those moderating planetary waves, while most of the continent still remains south of the tropical moisture easterlies. Other southern continents like South America and Africa don't have this problem (because they're narrow enough down south).


In short, climate change would have occurred anyway regardless of ACG. Towards the end of the lifetime of Henry Purcell the river Thames completely froze over.

A true story: In 1922, a few weeks before Christmas, in the deep southwestern farming region of New South Wales a baby was born. His parents had little money and lived on a large farm in a corrugated steel hut. This would have been astonishingly hot in this dry, parched landscape - the worst kind of building material, in fact. A heatwave struck the area when the child was about 6 weeks old. He died. His father had to fashion a coffin out of timbers from the property. And quickly. Before he had finished making the coffin (he was to be buried in the nearest cemetery some miles away), the weather experienced a cool change. In fact, it became so cold that the fuel (wood) stove had to be lit to keep the family warm. The next child born, another boy, became my father's friend and this story ended up in local history and lore. My father and his friend both had the opportunity to play cricket together, as children, on the bed of a completely dry (and important to the region's lifeblood) Murrumbidgee River during the very early 1930s.

My late father's siblings mostly remain alive and all are in their 90s. They've seen every kind of weather imaginable on those broadacre farms and their children who have taken the family farms to run themselves are dealing with chronic water shortages - mostly because of government mismanagement. If you want to know about climate change ask a farmer; half say it's changing and the other say it's not.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> In short, climate change would have occurred anyway regardless of ACG. Towards the end of the lifetime of Henry Purcell the river Thames completely froze over.
> 
> A true story: In 1922, a few weeks before Christmas, in the deep southwestern farming region of New South Wales a baby was born. His parents had little money and lived on a large farm in a corrugated steel hut. This would have been astonishingly hot in this dry, parched landscape - the worst kind of building material, in fact. A heatwave struck the area when the child was about 6 weeks old. He died. His father had to fashion a coffin out of timbers from the property. And quickly. Before he had finished making the coffin (he was to be buried in the nearest cemetery some miles away), the weather experienced a cool change. In fact, it became so cold that the fuel (wood) stove had to be lit to keep the family warm. The next child born, another boy, became my father's friend and this story ended up in local history and lore. My father and his friend both had the opportunity to play cricket together, as children, on the bed of a completely dry (and important to the region's lifeblood) Murrumbidgee River during the very early 1930s.
> 
> My late father's siblings mostly remain alive and all are in their 90s. They've seen every kind of weather imaginable on those broadacre farms and their children who have taken the family farms to run themselves are dealing with chronic water shortages - mostly because of government mismanagement. If you want to know about climate change ask a farmer; half say it's changing and the other say it's not.


The cold during Purcell's lifetime was regional (Western Europe). As far as we can tell South America and parts of Africa were much warmer than normal. But we care about the next hundred years into the future, and beyond that, not hundreds of years ago. The long past is irrelevant because there was little human influence on the climate back then.

Weather comes in large waves so that drought and heat can be followed immediately by record-breaking cold. It all depends upon the energy content of the waves and that's what we're very worried about. We see the trends and the ramifications already and the warming has just begun.

Farmers are quite comical because they are exaggerated examples of what 'everyman' blurts on and on about. Everyone sees weather every day out their window, but farmers actually believe that they can see changes coming. Half the time they're correct (depending upon how you score their nebulous guesses) and that just reinforces the whole façade. Yes, I get quite short with them (and the hang gliders here), because they waste people's time with their yarns. They come in and collect data for their lawsuits and their government legal disputes. I've never met one who knows how weather works (or even wants to learn).


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> The cold during Purcell's lifetime was regional (Western Europe). As far as we can tell South America and parts of Africa were much warmer than normal. But we care about the next hundred years into the future, and beyond that, not hundreds of years ago. The long past is irrelevant because there was little human influence on the climate back then.
> 
> Weather comes in large waves so that drought and heat can be followed immediately by record-breaking cold. It all depends upon the energy content of the waves and that's what we're very worried about. We see the trends and the ramifications already and the warming has just begun.
> 
> Farmers are quite comical because they are exaggerated examples of what 'everyman' blurts on and on about. Everyone sees weather every day out their window, but farmers actually believe that they can see changes coming. Half the time they're correct (depending upon how you score their nebulous guesses) and that just reinforces the whole façade. Yes, I get quite short with them (and the hang gliders here), because they waste people's time with their yarns. They come in and collect data for their lawsuits and their government legal disputes. I've never met one who knows how weather works (or even wants to learn).


The Thames example was to show how the climate has changed since then. "Everyman" is the only information we really have to go by since formal records only go back a certain way. As it is, humans have been on the planet at 5 seconds to midnight compared to the existence of the planet itself. You're using measurements taken in an atomic milli-second of that to draw conclusions FROM THE PAST about what will happen in the future. Yes, we cannot have farmers and others wasting people's time. You need to be right there to set them all straight.

For your information, farmers have to do what is environmentally sustainable if they ever hope to have any kind of income viability and pass on their properties to their offspring. They learn to 'listen' to the land and, as such, are experts on the micro-climate. Many have adapted very well to the conditions and are teaching 'experts' from the city how it's all done. They know far more than boffins sitting in offices spewing out computer-generated models. It's very fashionable in Australia to respect the indigenous cultures and their relationship to the land but so very 21st century to speak contemptuously when white people are learning to do the same thing. I cannot abide such hypocrisy myself.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> The Thames example was to show how the climate has changed since then. "Everyman" is the only information we really have to go by since formal records only go back a certain way. As it is, humans have been on the planet at 5 seconds to midnight compared to the existence of the planet itself. You're using measurements taken in an atomic milli-second of that to draw conclusions FROM THE PAST about what will happen in the future. Yes, we cannot have farmers and others wasting people's time. You need to be right there to set them all straight.
> 
> For your information, farmers have to do what is environmentally sustainable if they ever hope to have any kind of income viability and pass on their properties to their offspring. They learn to 'listen' to the land and, as such, are experts on the micro-climate. Many have adapted very well to the conditions and are teaching 'experts' from the city how it's all done. They know far more than boffins sitting in offices spewing out computer-generated models. It's very fashionable in Australia to respect the indigenous cultures and their relationship to the land but so very 21st century to speak contemptuously when white people are learning to do the same thing. I cannot abide such hypocrisy myself.


Most all of your statements are wrong. It's remarkable.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Most all of your statements are wrong. It's remarkable.


Your statement was an opinion, not a fact. It's predictable.


----------



## Strange Magic

One thing we are certain of is the steady, relentless mining and extracting of hundreds of millions of years of accumulated and deeply-buried fossil carbon, the bringing of this carbon to the surface, then its combustion, conversion to CO2, and release into the atmosphere. Been going on at an accelerating rate since the beginning of both the industrial revolution and the explosion of Earth's human population. You can actually measure these things: 1940: world population 2.3 billion; CO2 310 ppm (pre-industrial was 280 ppm). 2018: world population 7.6 billion; CO2 410 ppm. But nothing to worry about--it's only a bunch of scientific nonsense!


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> One thing we are certain of is the steady, relentless mining and extracting of hundreds of millions of years of accumulated and deeply-buried fossil carbon, the bringing of this carbon to the surface, then its combustion, conversion to CO2, and release into the atmosphere. Been going on at an accelerating rate since the beginning of both the industrial revolution and the explosion of Earth's human population. You can actually measure these things: 1940: world population 2.3 billion; CO2 310 ppm (pre-industrial was 280 ppm). 2018: world population 7.6 billion; CO2 410 ppm. But nothing to worry about--it's only a bunch of scientific nonsense!


There are many many consequences of humans on the planet - particularly with unsustainable population growth, as we now have. Just thinking of beef cattle; these are effectively hooved locusts and they remove layers and layers of soil in the agricultural environment over time. This is seen during periods of dry and dust-storms where levels of dust in the air become intolerable. That means that a huge amount of soil has been removed in one hit. The answer? Stop eating meat?

Having to produce food to feed in excess of 7 million is damaging to planet earth. So, it's not just simply a matter of climate change. If we remove soil or degrade it with over-fertilization we will deplete our own food growing capacity.

I have enormous faith in human ingenuity to overcome these adversities and will not panic about any of it, merely adding to the problem.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> Your statement was an opinion, not a fact. It's predictable.


I'd like to talk about why most all anti-science right-wingers begin to sound the same. Why do you think that is?

Can we discuss this unemotionally?


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> I'd like to talk about why most all anti-science right-wingers begin to sound the same. Why do you think that is?
> 
> Can we discuss this unemotionally?


Is it possible that they all use the same source(s), same talking points? same assumptions?


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> I'd like to talk about why most all anti-science right-wingers begin to sound the same. Why do you think that is?
> 
> Can we discuss this unemotionally?


Sorry, but the left does not own the truth - despite their moral certainty of this and just about everything else. Stop with the talking points. You know nothing about farming or how farmers are interacting with the land to preserve the environment.

Meantime, I won't be drawn into undergrad, rigid political verbiage.


----------



## Guest

Roger Knox said:


> Is it possible that they all use the same source(s), same talking points? same assumptions?


Not like the left, though, aye.


----------



## Strange Magic

We seem to have welcome and broad agreement here on both the malignancy of continued global population growth and on the efficacy of cutting back on meat consumption as a way of lessening environmental degradation. Christabel asks rhetorically whether we should stop eating meat, and, of course, the answer is stop if you can and reduce the quantity if you can't or won't while we meanwhile work toward reversing global population growth and instead craft a return to a sustainable and humane level of human numbers. Here were some of our past thoughts and discussions.....

Malthusianism and the Green Revolution


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Is it possible that they all use the same source(s), same talking points? same assumptions?


I think it's more their psychological makeup, which has been shaped by bad experiences and muddled fears. Of course there's an abundance of sources for their propaganda. They're bombarded with it, because that's their world.
In any case, they're not interesting.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> Sorry, but the left does not own the truth - despite their moral certainty of this and just about everything else. Stop with the talking points. You know nothing about farming or how farmers are interacting with the land to preserve the environment.
> 
> Meantime, I won't be drawn into undergrad, rigid political verbiage.


Ok, I understand you.
I just sold a farm in 2017. You just make things up trying to win points. It doesn't seem to matter to you whether you're right or wrong.


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## Jacck

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=43.7;34.1;4&l=satellite

we have an inversion right now. Fog and low hanging clouds in the valleys, and sunny on the mountains (above 1000m). On the satelite image, you can see mountains rising from the fog


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## Roger Knox

Jacck said:


> we have an inversion right now. Fog and low hanging clouds in the valleys, and sunny on the mountains (above 1000m). On the satelite image, you can see mountains rising from the fog


That's a terrific image.


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## Roger Knox

Glorious weather for several days here. Today is sunny, high of 21° Celsius. Tomorrow rain, Wednesday high of 9°, down to 5° a week from today. Maybe that is the cold beginning of winter _you predicted for us a few weeks ago_. Parka time -- isn't science wonderful?


----------



## Open Book

Strange Magic said:


> We seem to have welcome and broad agreement here on both the malignancy of continued global population growth and on the efficacy of cutting back on meat consumption as a way of lessening environmental degradation. Christabel asks rhetorically whether we should stop eating meat, and, of course, the answer is stop if you can and reduce the quantity if you can't or won't while we meanwhile work toward reversing global population growth and instead craft a return to a sustainable and humane level of human numbers. Here were some of our past thoughts and discussions.....
> 
> Malthusianism and the Green Revolution


How are we going to get the whole world on the same page about reducing population growth and then, if necessary, meat consumption?

It doesn't do any good if only part of the world takes action. Got any ideas?


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Glorious weather for several days here. Today is sunny, high of 21° Celsius. Tomorrow rain, Wednesday high of 9°, down to 5° a week from today. Maybe that is the cold beginning of winter _you predicted for us a few weeks ago_. Parka time -- isn't science wonderful?


The models handle the 30,000 foot conditions very well, because it's an easier problem for them. No mountains, no friction layer, no small but influential systems backing up chaotically.

The flow at that level for you has been from the southwest which keeps you very mild. But by next Tuesday there will be a shift (you'll be more toward the back side of the planetary wave) and you will experience the flow from the northwest instead, which is very different, in fact, it's the 'opposite' weather for you.

After that, still no winter outbreaks to be seen, hooray!, probably till the end of the month. Quite mild, temperature-wise.


----------



## Strange Magic

Open Book said:


> How are we going to get the whole world on the same page about reducing population growth and then, if necessary, meat consumption?
> 
> It doesn't do any good if only part of the world takes action. Got any ideas?


All Winston Churchill said that he could offer to the British public were "blood, toil, tears, and sweat" in the face of the clear and present danger that was Nazi Germany. To those I can only suggest the addition of inspired and responsible political leadership, to make sure publics are alerted to the not-so-immediately-clear and present and future environmental dangers that the world scientific community has struggled to communicate to us. A fully-informed public led by resolute governmental and social forces could actually begin to effect positive change, though it is clear that retrograde elements in key countries have ignored these issues and squandered opportunity after opportunity to act. We can either move to fix things before they are fatally broken, or we can wait passively until Nature Herself forces a very disagreeable final reckoning upon us.

As I have posted on several occasions, one key step forward toward reducing population growth is to insist upon and fight for full female equality, coupled with effective contraception that is obtained and used by women in complete confidentiality. This may involve a prolonged struggle against organized religion that seeks to relegate women to subservience to the male power structure, but the struggle is worth having, though it will takes decades, likely many decades....


----------



## Luchesi

Strange Magic said:


> All Winston Churchill said that he could offer to the British public were "blood, toil, tears, and sweat" in the face of the clear and present danger that was Nazi Germany. To those I can only suggest the addition of inspired and responsible political leadership, to make sure publics are alerted to the not-so-immediately-clear and present and future environmental dangers that the world scientific community has struggled to communicate to us. A fully-informed public led by resolute governmental and social forces could actually begin to effect positive change, though it is clear that retrograde elements in key countries have ignored these issues and squandered opportunity after opportunity to act. We can either move to fix things before they are fatally broken, or we can wait passively until Nature Herself forces a very disagreeable final reckoning upon us.
> 
> As I have posted on several occasions, one key step forward toward reducing population growth is to insist upon and fight for full female equality, coupled with effective contraception that is obtained and used by women in complete confidentiality. This may involve a prolonged struggle against organized religion that seeks to relegate women to subservience to the male power structure, but the struggle is worth having, though it will takes decades, likely many decades....


I expect those big changes to hundreds of thousands of years of human behavior (and natural desires) will only be too little too late. We should be smart enough to be able to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. It will cost trillions. Everyone can pay their share. And it will be burdensome!


----------



## Open Book

Strange Magic said:


> All Winston Churchill said that he could offer to the British public were "blood, toil, tears, and sweat" in the face of the clear and present danger that was Nazi Germany. To those I can only suggest the addition of inspired and responsible political leadership, to make sure publics are alerted to the not-so-immediately-clear and present and future environmental dangers that the world scientific community has struggled to communicate to us. A fully-informed public led by resolute governmental and social forces could actually begin to effect positive change, though it is clear that retrograde elements in key countries have ignored these issues and squandered opportunity after opportunity to act. We can either move to fix things before they are fatally broken, or we can wait passively until Nature Herself forces a very disagreeable final reckoning upon us.
> 
> As I have posted on several occasions, one key step forward toward reducing population growth is to insist upon and fight for full female equality, coupled with effective contraception that is obtained and used by women in complete confidentiality. This may involve a prolonged struggle against organized religion that seeks to relegate women to subservience to the male power structure, but the struggle is worth having, though it will takes decades, likely many decades....


You can only affect politics in your own country. A lot of the world is not accepting of full female equality and that's not going to change soon. Yet we're told we have only 15 years to fix things or we might pass a point of no return. Besides that, the parts of the world with a low birth rate are accepting immigration from other parts and so are growing their populations that way.


----------



## Strange Magic

Re Luchesi and Open Book: mechanical removal of CO2 from the atmosphere is putting a Band-Aid on a massive chest wound. Mass tree planting worldwide will be more productive, could the will to summon forth both the necessity for action and the action itself. This must be coupled with the drive for full female equality and their complete control of their reproduction. The likelihood of either happening is quite low, hence Plan B is for The Wise to prepare future generations for a long period of hunkering down and, as the Japanese realized they must do toward the end as it became clear they would lose WWII, get ready to endure the unendurable. That is to say: not to cut our losses (not possible), but rather to leave a residuum from which a future world with a rich biosphere can be reborn.


----------



## Flamme

Strange Magic said:


> All Winston Churchill said that he could offer to the British public were "blood, toil, tears, and sweat" in the face of the clear and present danger that was Nazi Germany. To those I can only suggest the addition of inspired and responsible political leadership, to make sure publics are alerted to the not-so-immediately-clear and present and future environmental dangers that the world scientific community has struggled to communicate to us. A fully-informed public led by resolute governmental and social forces could actually begin to effect positive change, though it is clear that retrograde elements in key countries have ignored these issues and squandered opportunity after opportunity to act. We can either move to fix things before they are fatally broken, or we can wait passively until Nature Herself forces a very disagreeable final reckoning upon us.
> 
> As I have posted on several occasions, one key step forward toward reducing population growth is to insist upon and fight for full female equality, coupled with effective contraception that is obtained and used by women in complete confidentiality. This may involve a prolonged struggle against organized religion that seeks to relegate women to subservience to the male power structure, but the struggle is worth having, though it will takes decades, likely many decades....


Noiw I agree with most of your points bro...But they seem to be ''doable'' and pushed only in western, christian hemisphere..The further east you go, people find them laughable and don't even consider a ''change'', and those are the ''breeding and polluting grounds'' of humanity, not the west that already has almost no simple reproduction natality and many actions to reduce the ''carbon foot print''...


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## Open Book

Flamme said:


> Noiw I agree with most of your points bro...But they seem to be ''doable'' and pushed only in western, christian hemisphere..The further east you go, people find them laughable and don't even consider a ''change'', and those are the ''breeding and polluting grounds'' of humanity, not the west that already has almost no simple reproduction natality and many actions to reduce the ''carbon foot print''...


I do agree with this. I know the west is responsible for more than its share of the emissions problem, but there was a graph on another thread that showed the third world will surpass us in 30 years just from population growth. The third world uses dirtier fuels than the west and is making less progress toward change while the west has already been progressing so that its emission curve was quite flat.

I also think there is manipulation going on with phrases like "existential threat". Have scientists really said that we're all going to be wiped out if we don't do something to stop climate change? All 8 billion of us, really? We've withstood many disasters before in our history with much smaller populations including volcanic eruptions that froze the planet for a whole year so that there was no growing season.

Of course we shouldn't want to endure catastrophic events like this, they will take a big toll. But cause the extinction of humanity, I doubt it. It will be a very unpleasant world if we do nothing and it will wreak havoc with other species, but let's be honest about the threat level or people will resist.


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## Flamme

I'm just saying that all these ''fads'' are exactly that, western fads...Only western liberals give a hoot about them, the ''rest of the world'' doesn't give a rat's a%& and there is no will or way, so far, to make them do anything! For god sake in the west there is a ''third wave feminism'' while in most of the world they kill female children and stone grown women for ''adultery''...What are we talking about...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> I'm just saying that all these ''fads'' are exactly that, western fads...Only western liberals give a hoot about them, the ''rest of the world'' doesn't give a rat's a%& and there is no will or way, so far, to make them do anything! For god sake in the west there is a ''third wave feminism'' while in most of the world they kill female children and stone grown women for ''adultery''...What are we talking about...


China will be very impacted by global warming. They are having massive water problems and droughts even now. The whole Chinese north is turning into a desert, including Beijing. They pledged to limit CO2 emissions even unilateraly without any preconditions. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...u-s-to-a-zero-carbon-emissions-climate-pledge
It is again Russia who is the main villain here - because their economy is based on being a big gas and petrol station. And of course the Republicans in the USA


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## Strange Magic

> Open Book: "I also think there is manipulation going on with phrases like "existential threat". Have scientists really said that we're all going to be wiped out if we don't do something to stop climate change? All 8 billion of us, really? We've withstood many disasters before in our history with much smaller populations including volcanic eruptions that froze the planet for a whole year so that there was no growing season.
> 
> Of course we shouldn't want to endure catastrophic events like this, they will take a big toll. But cause the extinction of humanity, I doubt it. It will be a very unpleasant world if we do nothing and it will wreak havoc with other species, but let's be honest about the threat level or people will resist.


I am not aware of any reputable climate scientist or scientific body that has ever asserted that AGW will result in the extinction of humankind, all eleven or more billion of us when things get really dire. What will likely occur will be famines, killer droughts, aquifer exhaustion, agricultural failures on an increasingly massive scale, fisheries collapses, and the increasingly extreme and violent weather events we are seeing the advent of now. There will be mass migrations, wars over food and water supplies, and general social unrest and disruption here and there controlled by draconian force and militarized regimes. Forget the abundant wildlife and wilderness of previous centuries.

But extinction of Homo sapiens? No.


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## Open Book

What does "existential threat" mean, then, if not extinction? Maybe scientists don't use it, but politicians do, constantly.

All those predicted effects are terrible. They are also the conditions some people face anyway in other parts of the world. China may be turning into a desert, but there are people who live in deserts and suffer the hardships. I don't know if they'll be impressed.

I do think we should fix what we can of what we've messed up, but it probably won't be enough.

Politicians should spell all this out as you have. Joe Biden should be specific about the effects of climate change in his first speech addressing the Union.


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## Flamme

I beleive in the chinese wisdom...It is tried and proved over the period of thousands and thousands of countless centuries!!!


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## Strange Magic

Flamme said:


> I beleive in the chinese wisdom...It is tried and proved over the period of thousands and thousands of countless centuries!!!


What is the Chinese wisdom? Thousands and thousands of countless centuries is a long time. Can't even be counted (by definition).


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## Dorsetmike

I've often wondered what it would be like to have a climate, here in UK we just get weather!


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## Flamme

Strange Magic said:


> What is the Chinese wisdom? Thousands and thousands of countless centuries is a long time. Can't even be counted (by definition).


I was a bit ironic, but they do have lots of it, wisdom...Thats how they survive in a turbulent and upredictable world!

Its so strange when night falls so early, around 9 pm I get a feeling of midnight...The day has shortened soo much.


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## KenOC

A few days ago I posted about Eta, which struck Honduras and Nicaragua as a major hurricane. It exited to the north and cut across Cuba before crossing central Florida moving west to east and then vanished into the Atlantic.

Now on its heels comes Iota, forecast to strike Honduras and Nicaragua (again!) as a major hurricane. This time it is expected to cut across Central America and emerge into the Pacific, possibly to reform and move, as most systems there do, to the northwest toward Baja California.

Bad luck this year for the inhabitants of those sections of Honduras and Nicaragua!


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## Jacck

Iota
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11.2;-73.8;4&l=satellite


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## KenOC

Jacck said:


> Iota
> https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11.2;-73.8;4&l=satellite


Thanks Jacck. That looks like a great site!


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## Dan Ante

Jacck said:


> Iota
> https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11.2;-73.8;4&l=satellite


Thanks for the app I will have fun.


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## KenOC

Iota is now a major hurricane, a category 5 with sustained winds of 160 mph / 260 kph. They don’t get much stronger than that. The US National Hurricane Center writes, “This remains a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago.”


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## Roger Knox

Here it's 0 degrees and snowing. Winter sending a message. Going to dubbin up my boots today.


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## Roger Knox

KenOC said:


> Iota is now a major hurricane, a category 5 with sustained winds of 160 mph / 260 kph. They don't get much stronger than that. The US National Hurricane Center writes, "This remains a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago."


My brother worked in Latin America for six years. Some people criticize Central Americans, but imagine living in poverty with this kind of weather.


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## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Here it's 0 degrees and snowing. Winter sending a message. Going to dubbin up my boots today.


You're under one low pressure system, while we're still ahead of another one. We were 83/29 yesterday, is this because of global warming? I'd say 5 degrees of it is, because it's a somewhat impressive setup and it takes extra energy to do that (I'd need to show you the charts). For us, it's due to warm air advection ahead of a low pressure wave ploughing its way down toward us from the northwest.

We'll reach 73/23 today, but 65/18 is average for late November.

I enjoy watching these huge patterns. It's always the same, there's few degrees of freedom within the range of planetary wave dynamics. AGW will expand that dangerous range, and that's what we're worried about, as the century proceeds and the changes become obvious to EVERYONE.


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## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> It's always the same, there's few degrees of freedom within the range of planetary wave dynamics. AGW will expand that dangerous range, and that's what we're worried about, as the century proceeds and the changes become obvious to EVERYONE.


You don't need to convince me ... but nowadays I'm not sure if the problem is that people will believe anything, or that people will disbelieve anything.


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## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> You don't need to convince me ... but nowadays I'm not sure if the problem is that people will believe anything, or that people will disbelieve anything.


Yes, humans are funny that way. It's said that ritualistic thinking is a refuge from reality and I find it more appealing as I grow older.. 
The planet was hit by Theia and that's probably how it acquired most of its cyclonic rotation (if we use Polaris as a reference direction). 
Your dad might've mentioned this at the dinner table. If an air parcel follows a cyclonic path (cyclonic curvature) it will gain energy in accordance with "the right hand rule" in physics. Low pressure systems circulate in cyclonic patterns (Northern Hemisphere). High pressure systems with comparatively more mass oppose the cyclonic rotation of the Earth. So these 'simple' patterns form and they're sustained by the continuous feedbacks. The extra energy according to the rule results in upward vertical motion. The water vapor then condenses and freezes which releases the heat of crystallization. This energy runs the weather, and it's what we can forecast (relative vorticity). The sun and the collisions of air masses also add lift (they're much easier to forecast). The precipitation falls on us when it gets heavy enough. :clap:


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## Flamme

Strangely sunny for this time of the year...Most people enjoy it but for me, it is just not natural...


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## KenOC

I have recently posted here on two major hurricanes that hit the same area in Central America within two weeks of each other. This is a very poor area and life was already tough. Now it's tougher.


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## Guest

Roger Knox said:


> You don't need to convince me ... but nowadays I'm not sure if the problem is that people will believe anything, or that people will disbelieve anything.


A belief in everything is a belief in nothing.


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## Ich muss Caligari werden

It has turned sharply colder here and once again (one might have thought that after 69 years I might have learned something about this, but no) I am surprised, nay shocked!, at how cold cold is. Now I'm seeing our very first snow flurries.


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## adriesba

I'm wondering if it's ever going to snow here. It was unusually warm for a long time and seems like perhaps now it's actually cooling down.


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## Flamme

Noticably colder.


----------



## Luchesi

Ich muss Caligari werden said:


> It has turned sharply colder here and once again (one might have thought that after 69 years I might have learned something about this, but no) I am surprised, nay shocked!, at how cold cold is. Now I'm seeing our very first snow flurries.


Our planet rotates fast enough so that weather comes in large waves which are very strong compared to surface conditions (winds, temperature, pressure). As children we should be taught about these planetary waves since it's good to know about for the rest of our lives, but we aren't. Especially now with the slight changes we can see in the regional climates. The waves form and sustain regional climates. We're energizing the waves at our peril.


----------



## Ich muss Caligari werden

Luchesi said:


> Our planet rotates fast enough so that weather comes in large waves which are very strong compared to surface conditions (winds, temperature, pressure). As children we should be taught about these planetary waves since it's good to know about for the rest of our lives, but we aren't. Especially now with the slight changes we can see in the regional climates. The waves form and sustain regional climates. We're energizing the waves at our peril.


You're a mind reader, Luchesi, on my re-introduction to the cold, I noticed that the wind at tree top level was at least twice as strong as that confronting me personally. Of course, that stands to reason - having landforms, bldgs., trees, etc to contend with but it did make me ponder the strength of the wind force at higher latitudes and made me shiver at the thought, Pascal-like: "Le silence éternel de ces espaces infinis m'effraie..." except that instead of being silent I could well imagine the roar of those winds. Anyway, I was quite happy to hustle home, Hobbit-like, to the relative security of books, food, warmth and CDs.


----------



## Luchesi

Ich muss Caligari werden said:


> You're a mind reader, Luchesi, on my re-introduction to the cold, I noticed that the wind at tree top level was at least twice as strong as that confronting me personally. Of course, that stands to reason - having landforms, bldgs., trees, etc to contend with but it did make me ponder the strength of the wind force at higher latitudes and made me shiver at the thought, Pascal-like: "Le silence éternel de ces espaces infinis m'effraie..." except that instead of being silent I could well imagine the roar of those winds. Anyway, I was quite happy to hustle home, Hobbit-like, to the relative security of books, food, warmth and CDs.


Yes, many people don't realize that the winds are up there every day over us. 40 kts (21 m/s) is about the average, but it does occasionally get to as much as three times that during stormy times. 
If you're in North America this is the planetary wave over us right now. There's 5 waves around the NH right now. All weather results from the changes in and the movement of these monsters. Can you see it? It extends from coast to coast currently.


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## Open Book

In my New England suburb some of us lost power for 9 hours last night due to heavy winds that accompanied the all-day rain.

Power failures have been a common occurrence for years. We finally got a generator and it was a good investment.

The next block usually has power. I'd like to sell and move up the street.


----------



## Luchesi

Open Book said:


> In my New England suburb some of us lost power for 9 hours last night due to heavy winds that accompanied the all-day rain.
> 
> Power failures have been a common occurrence for years. We finally got a generator and it was a good investment.
> 
> The next block usually has power. I'd like to sell and move up the street.


Glad to have you back. How do we 'live' without power? Here in the Sonoran Desert it only rains a few times a year, but when it does, even with a light rain we lose power!

The electric company can't seem to both upgrade their infrastructure AND please their stockholders.. So it seems like they just wait for rain and then they replace the expensive parts, piecemeal. I've lived many other places where they routinely get intense weather events and they rarely lose power.

Does anyone know if power outages are still hard on computers or has that been fixed by now? Many years ago a friend of mine would just pull the plug out of the outlet instead of powering down his computer! I said to him what the heck are you doing??


----------



## Open Book

Luchesi said:


> Glad to have you back. How do we 'live' without power? Here in the Sonoran Desert it only rains a few times a year, but when it does, even with a light rain we lose power!
> 
> The electric company can't seem to both upgrade their infrastructure AND please their stockholders.. So it seems like they just wait for rain and then they replace the expensive parts, piecemeal. I've lived many other places where they routinely get intense weather events and they rarely lose power.
> 
> Does anyone know if power outages are still hard on computers or has that been fixed by now? Many years ago a friend of mine would just pull the plug out of that outlet instead of powering down his computer! I said to him what the heck are you doing??


Glad to have me back? Thanks, but I haven't been away.

In New England it's usually parts of trees falling on power lines that causes the power failures. We have an abundance of tall trees, even where people live, in yards, lining streets.

My computer was on when the power failed and I feared to see the effects because it's getting old. But it lucked out and seems fine. I guess it's a question for the computer thread as to why suddenly cutting off power is bad. It might be more a software than hardware issue, files closing properly.


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## Roger Knox

*Canada will experience effects of "La Nina" this winter*

_Globe and Mail_ today: "Cooler temperatures off the coast of South America (... 'La Nina') will create a strong jet stream separating warm southern air masses from their colder northern counterparts" according to The Weather Network. "Chief meteorologist Chris Scott says this means most Canadians can brace for a *widely variable winter* with major departures from seasonal norms." He says there will be *a lot of extremes* within the given regions.

We got a fair amount of snow yesterday. Winter is here, ok, but is the predicted variability related to climate change? Canadians can handle cold winters but as for variability, isn't there too much excitement in our lives already? On the other hand, bursts of springtime in the winter might not be all bad.

Luchesi, I would like to ask if you have any thoughts on this. 'La Nina" seems so far away ...


----------



## Flamme

We have such strong wind these days...Košava especially stong on Danube in my town of zemun...https://www.itinari.com/balkan-s-exclusive-kosava-a-wind-that-blows-here-and-nowhere-else-3jzm


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## adriesba

OK, now it's getting colder here. I love my electric blanket!


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## Flamme

Košava has stopped and the rain has started. A bit proud of myself that I rode my bike through it...Mudguards are of great help ofcourse, the best investment I had in a while!


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## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> _Globe and Mail_ today: "Cooler temperatures off the coast of South America (... 'La Nina') will create a strong jet stream separating warm southern air masses from their colder northern counterparts" according to The Weather Network. "Chief meteorologist Chris Scott says this means most Canadians can brace for a *widely variable winter* with major departures from seasonal norms." He says there will be *a lot of extremes* within the given regions.
> 
> We got a fair amount of snow yesterday. Winter is here, ok, but is the predicted variability related to climate change? Canadians can handle cold winters but as for variability, isn't there too much excitement in our lives already? On the other hand, bursts of springtime in the winter might not be all bad.
> 
> Luchesi, I would like to ask if you have any thoughts on this. 'La Nina" seems so far away ...


 They're saying that La Niña strengthens the Subtropical Jet - which weakens the Polar Jet which is often over you. This allows the polar vortices to fall down on you and they're very cold! As these drain the cold from the dark Arctic regions there's about a week of warmer than normal temperatures at your location in the continent.

There are also other more complicated dynamics having to do with the weakening of the semipermanent ridge west of California (changes in currents). This allows their storm track to come farther south. There's always plenty of moisture waiting to flood them.


----------



## Luchesi

Luchesi said:


> They're saying that La Niña strengthens the Subtropical Jet - which weakens the Polar Jet which is often over you. This allows the polar vortices to fall down on you and they're very cold! As these drain the cold from the dark Arctic regions there's about a week of warmer than normal temperatures at your location in the continent.
> 
> There are also other more complicated dynamics having to do with the weakening of the semipermanent ridge west of California (changes in currents). This allows their storm track to come farther south. There's always plenty of moisture waiting to flood them.


As with AGW changes in regional climates, these are very subtle developments. We're still living in halcyon times!


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> As with AGW changes in regional climates, these are very subtle developments. We're still living in halcyon times!


Thank you for explaining how La Niña behaves! "Halcyon times" sound great, hope you will be spared from flooding later. And that polar vortices don't freeze things up here. As for Santa Claus, he'd better stay home and use the internet!


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## KenOC

Instead of much-needed rain, we're getting low humidities, stiff breezes, and a second round of December fire weather!


----------



## Flamme

Watched this on BBC today and it really disturbed me...I'm a fan of warmer climate but the idea that snow will disappear from the face of earth is really ground shaking for me...Some of my fondest memories from childhood are related to snow, ice and winter. Must be a way to ''seed the snow'' somehow if all else fails!


----------



## KenOC

Flamme said:


> Watched this on BBC today and it really disturbed me...I'm a fan of warmer climate but the idea that snow will disappear from the face of earth is really ground shaking for me...Some of my fondest memories from childhood are related to snow, ice and winter. Must be a way to ''seed the snow'' somehow if all else fails!


I also remember that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 that the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035. When people asked for data to back up this estimate, the IPCC withdrew the claim in 2010 since no data seemed to exist.

"The chair, vice-chairs, and co-chairs of the IPCC regret the poor application of IPCC procedures..."


----------



## Strange Magic

Fresher material: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/6/eaav7266

*Acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas over the Past 40 Years*

Abstract
Himalayan glaciers supply meltwater to densely populated catchments in South Asia, and regional observations of glacier change over multiple decades are needed to understand climate drivers and assess resulting impacts on glacier-fed rivers. Here, we quantify changes in ice thickness during the intervals 1975-2000 and 2000-2016 across the Himalayas, using a set of digital elevation models derived from cold war-era spy satellite film and modern stereo satellite imagery. We observe consistent ice loss along the entire 2000-km transect for both intervals and find a doubling of the average loss rate during 2000-2016 [−0.43 ± 0.14 m w.e. year−1(meters of water equivalent per year)] compared to 1975-2000 (−0.22 ± 0.13 m w.e. year−1). The similar magnitude and acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas suggests a regionally coherent climate forcing, consistent with atmospheric warming and associated energy fluxes as the dominant drivers of glacier change.

An Internet search turns up several additional contemporary citations.


----------



## Guest

Where in the world would you be, Strange Magic, without your catastrophic prognostications? Cleaved to a bible, with its Old Testament fire and brimstone admonitions would be the next step. A pessimist can never be disappointed.

In Australia we're currently enjoying a spell of cool weather and rain after last year's 'unprecedented' fires. The gardens are thriving and I'm sitting here at 6.22am in winter nightwear!! Of course, it won't stay that way this summer but this time last year my state was ablaze and had been so for a few weeks.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> Where in the world would you be, Strange Magic, without your catastrophic prognostications? Cleaved to a bible, with its Old Testament fire and brimstone admonitions would be the next step. A pessimist can never be disappointed.
> 
> In Australia we're currently enjoying a spell of cool weather and rain after last year's 'unprecedented' fires. The gardens are thriving and I'm sitting here at 6.22am in winter nightwear!! Of course, it won't stay that way this summer but this time last year my state was ablaze and had been so for a few weeks.


What are you implying? Weather comes in energetic waves. It's an interesting topic to learn about because it's so close to us all our lives. Right outside our windows. If you're not concerned about rising energy levels, well that's detached.


----------



## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> Watched this on BBC today and it really disturbed me...I'm a fan of warmer climate but the idea that snow will disappear from the face of earth is really ground shaking for me...Some of my fondest memories from childhood are related to snow, ice and winter. Must be a way to ''seed the snow'' somehow if all else fails!


How old will you be?


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> I also remember that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 that the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035. When people asked for data to back up this estimate, the IPCC withdrew the claim in 2010 since no data seemed to exist.
> 
> "The chair, vice-chairs, and co-chairs of the IPCC regret the poor application of IPCC procedures..."


They felt responsible about warning the people of the planet (with examples easy to understand).


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Thank you for explaining how La Niña behaves! "Halcyon times" sound great, hope you will be spared from flooding later. And that polar vortices don't freeze things up here. As for Santa Claus, he'd better stay home and use the internet!


Our reservoir is going down and down, because many people are fleeing CA and the northern states and coming here. We get 6 inches of rain a year and our evaporation rate is over 90 inches. We might have 20 years before the wells bring up just mud.


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> Our reservoir is going down and down, because many people are fleeing CA and the northern states and coming here. We get 6 inches of rain a year and our evaporation rate is over 90 inches. We might have 20 years before the wells bring up just mud.


Groundwater is being sucked dry (permanently due to strata collapse) in California's central valley, where wells now need to be sunk thousands of feet. This is no joke. Google "farmer suicides in India" to see where we are going.


----------



## Flamme

Luchesi said:


> How old will you be?


When? I'm 40 now...I see with my own eyes that snow is more and more scarce as time goes by...In 2019 we had like 10 snowy days, in 2020 only 5...I shudder to think about next year


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> Where in the world would you be, Strange Magic, without your catastrophic prognostications? Cleaved to a bible, with its Old Testament fire and brimstone admonitions would be the next step. A pessimist can never be disappointed.
> 
> In Australia we're currently enjoying a spell of cool weather and rain after last year's 'unprecedented' fires. The gardens are thriving and I'm sitting here at 6.22am in winter nightwear!! Of course, it won't stay that way this summer but this time last year my state was ablaze and had been so for a few weeks.


Christabel offers the Complete Package, Australia Version, of AGW denial, COVID minimization, and undoubtedly the full Right political/ideological superstructure to support the entire edifice. So our American affliction has indeed traveled trans-Pacific, bypassing the Kiwis, and settling on OZ, home of The Wizard. Cornucopian economics, "No Worries" thinking in general. And accusing others of excessive Biblical leanings--a nice touch. Enjoy the wonderful weather, while it lasts! And avoid "like the plague" the absurd concerns of nutter groups like the Australian Academy of Sciences and their crazy warnings about AGW. Don't Worry; Be Happy!


----------



## Roger Knox

KenOC said:


> Groundwater is being sucked dry (permanently due to strata collapse) in California's central valley, where wells now need to be sunk thousands of feet. This is no joke. Google "farmer suicides in India" to see where we are going.


Thanks, I've now read that very disturbing report. Water supply issues affect everything. For Canada there are problems with wasteful use of groundwater in Ontario and devastating fires in dry forests of Alberta and British Columbia. We need to stay informed and consider what actions to take.


----------



## Flamme

Another Xmas w/o a SNOW...Makes me so angry! It was even ''predicted'' by the weathermen...The temp falling below zero and snow starting...Nothing of those happened. Only some light, cold rain...The warmer days are good for electricity bills but for the feeling of winter paradise...Can the process be reversed, anyhow???


----------



## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> Another Xmas w/o a SNOW...Makes me so angry! It was even ''predicted'' by the weathermen...The temp falling below zero and snow starting...Nothing of those happened. Only some light, cold rain...The warmer days are good for electricity bills but for the feeling of winter paradise...Can the process be reversed, anyhow???


Did the baby Jesus ever see snow? I don't know. I was working in Israel only in the warm season.


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> Christabel offers the Complete Package, Australia Version, of AGW denial, COVID minimization, and undoubtedly the full Right political/ideological superstructure to support the entire edifice. So our American affliction has indeed traveled trans-Pacific, bypassing the Kiwis, and settling on OZ, home of The Wizard. Cornucopian economics, "No Worries" thinking in general. And accusing others of excessive Biblical leanings--a nice touch. Enjoy the wonderful weather, while it lasts! And avoid "like the plague" the absurd concerns of nutter groups like the Australian Academy of Sciences and their crazy warnings about AGW. Don't Worry; Be Happy!


We are enjoying the wonderful weather in Australia. Thanks for your good wishes!! Lots of gorgeous rain and cooler days for one third of summer so far; the spouse has even had to mow our vacant housing lots. This is our history, of course. If you were born since history started (about 30 years ago) you wouldn't know this. The people who write this sort of thing were born before history started: and, like me, they are wary of controlling technocrats who aren't too fussed about democracy.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/31/in-2021-lets-challenge-green-tyranny/

Since you're going to be paying all the debt for the Covid-19 and 'climate' crises it would be in your own interests to get the highest-possible paying job you can. Right now. That's a great contingency plan because, as surely as I sit here typing this, you will be paying. Through the nose (especially when interest rates rise, which they surely will). That's a conservative's viewpoint; one of the cohort who takes all the financial risks, employs people and rolls with the punches - largely without fear and hysteria.

Have a great 2021; mine has already started.


----------



## Flamme

No more winters like this...Will our children and our children's children even see the snow, except on tv or computer...


----------



## Roger Knox

According to the Washington Post 6 days ago, a split polar vortex may lead to unusual weather events this month in Europe and North America. The split means that part of the polar vortex drifts off its North Pole alignment destabilizing some of the planetary weather patterns. One possible result is more North American East Coast storm activity.


----------



## Flamme

Finally, the SNOW has come...And Fog.https://streamable.com/5jdncm
https://streamable.com/rzu7ui


----------



## Roger Knox

The Washington Post article I mentioned in post #2070 says that a movement of cold polar air down through central Europe is also part of the split polar vortex phenomenon. This morning I was talking to a fellow who comes from near Parma, Italy. He showed me a photo with the whole area blanketed in snow.


----------



## Flamme

Everythings gone mad, the weather included...Like we live in ''last days'', literally.


----------



## KenOC

Flamme said:


> Everything's gone mad, the weather included...Like we live in ''last days'', literally.


Over here we'll be in the 80s most of the week, plenty of sunshine.

Of course that means we'll be drinking plenty of beer this summer, since the reservoirs will be empty... :lol:


----------



## Jacck

the clouds had some very strange color today. The photo is almost unedited (I can send the raw file).


----------



## Flamme

Yeah, unhealthy blue-purple-ish...I am the only one who, last couple of years, sees the colors of disease and decay in the skies..


----------



## Jacck

definitely some strange skies today, especially the weird bluish color, but good for photography


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> The Washington Post article I mentioned in post #2070 says that a movement of cold polar air down through central Europe is also part of the split polar vortex phenomenon. This morning I was talking to a fellow who comes from near Parma, Italy. He showed me a photo with the whole area blanketed in snow.


I'm intrigued that in the past few decades it's taken until later in the cold season for these vortices to plunge far to the south. It takes time for the lands to the south to cool down, which weakens the north/south gradient, which weakens the conditions sustaining the intensities (mass transport) of the Arctic Jet and the Polar Jet. This finally results in releasing the cold core lows (the polar vortices within the larger planetary waves) to fall south into the less dense air. It's intriguing because we see theory in action. The more energetic the planetary system becomes the more damaging will be the results of these huge collisions..


----------



## KenOC

Red flag wildfire alert! In January? 83F today, 87F tomorrow. Since we've had almost no rain, everything is quite ready to burst into flame with a single sideways glance!


----------



## Roger Knox

KenOC said:


> Red flag wildfire alert! In January? 83F today, 87F tomorrow. Since we've had almost no rain, everything is quite ready to burst into flame with a single sideways glance!


I've read about the Santa Ana winds and hope there isn't fire damage in your area. Thinking of TC members in the SW United States today -- relief at hand with the announcement of several storms as the high atmosphere winds change. I see they are forecasting three or four storms with potential of 2-3 inches of rain. That sure will help as long as the storms don't create other problems. Also, snow on the Sierra Nevada will help build up the drinking water supply.


----------



## Flamme

The ''cold wave'' was announced but suddenly we go to + temperatures...This year is already a roller-coaster...


----------



## Ich muss Caligari werden

Last night, the first freezing rain I've seen (and heard) in some time. Starting at approx. 9:30 Central Standard Time, its sound was most unsettling. Besides making cracking, crackling noises when it hit the ground or some surface, I swear (this could be my imagination), I thought I could hear it crackling in the air as it fell. For nearly an hour the world seemed brittle, breakable, vulnerable...


----------



## Flamme

A dark and gloomy Sunday...But the smile stays on.


----------



## Ad Astra

*KenOC* I hope you stay safe.

It is snowing here and as usual BBC "Weather Reports" are wrong. They claim it is 6 degrees Celsius yet our outdoor thermometer reads - 2 C. It is still frosty, the snow is not too deep and the pond is still frozen those poor ducks.


----------



## Luchesi

I just wanted to say, winter's over down here and Spring has sprung. This winter was quite mild.


----------



## Luchesi

Ad Astra said:


> *KenOC* I hope you stay safe.
> 
> It is snowing here and as usual BBC "Weather Reports" are wrong. They claim it is 6 degrees Celsius yet our outdoor thermometer reads - 2 C. It is still frosty, the snow is not too deep and the pond is still frozen those poor ducks.


Weather reports are never really wrong, just misunderstood..


----------



## TxllxT

In the Netherlands this weekend 'the beast from the east' is expected to arrive with +20 cm snowfall and -10 celsius biting frost. Suddenly all skates have been sold out and the talk of the town is buzzing about the 'elfstedentocht' / 11 towns skating race:










The trouble however is corona. But if the -10 frost persists, then a national uprising is expected...


----------



## Joe B

North East corner of CT - Monday into Tuesday we had 10-11 inches of snow. Another 8 inches just fell this afternoon. I just spent another 3+ hours cleaning up. We have more snow in the forecast for Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday. Yikes! I guess we're making up for the last 2 years where we had very little snow.


----------



## Joe B

^^^
They just cancelled school again for tomorrow....another snow storm (5 AM through 7 PM). And yet more snow for Thursday and then again for Friday. And they just started talking about the possibility of a big snow storm on Sunday. Very soon it will be difficult to find places to put the snow.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Are the white specks in this pic the snow that most northern parts are moaning about?


----------



## Joe B

Dorsetmike said:


> Are the white specks in this pic the snow that most northern parts are moaning about?
> 
> View attachment 150425


No, the white specks look a little more like this:


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

It is 5 degrees and tonight the low is supposed to be 3 degrees.


----------



## KenOC

Snow? Did somebody say something about snow? My wife took this picture yesterday while out walking the dogs.


----------



## Roger Knox

Now it's our turn - we're supposed to get 9-12 inches from later this evening to tomorrow afternoon.


----------



## adriesba

Lot's of snow here the past two months. I don't think I've ever seen a winter this snowy honestly.


----------



## pianozach

Johnnie Burgess said:


> View attachment 150832
> 
> 
> It is 5 degrees and tonight the low is supposed to be 3 degrees.


*Central US is getting hammered with cold weather and snow
*


----------



## Luchesi

The UK will have good weather until about Monday. What? The UK? 

It looks like an anomaly, but it's one of those funny patterns called an omega high. It's not large enough to be dangerous.


----------



## Luchesi

I'd like to know what TC members think of their local weather forecasts. Are they more often helpful or are they more often upsetting? I ask people from all over the world. I think forecasters only get the complaints. I'm trying to see if there's a pattern of discontent. And it's fun for me.

Of course, what are the expectations? what are the educated expectations? and keeping in mind what are the relevant limits of science here as we have found them to be over the last 45 years (since the models began scoring consistently higher than experienced forecasters).

As the public and industry and the military have needed longer range forecasts, the numbers are the only way to do it. The limit for human prognosticators is a little less than 3 days (three rotations of the planet and things get very muddy for humans), the numerical models do amazingly well out to 16 days (at least for explanatory purposes).


----------



## progmatist

Meanwhile here in the Sonoran Desert, we're experiencing our first temps in excess of 100F/38C. And there are several wild fires burning around the perimeter of the Greater Phoenix area.


----------



## Flamme

How things are goin woould not be surprised if it snows in JUNE!!!


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Meanwhile here in the Sonoran Desert, we're experiencing our first temps in excess of 100F/38C. And there are several wild fires burning around the perimeter of the Greater Phoenix area.


Why are you so much hotter than Riverside CA? Same latitude and about the same elevation?


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Why are you so much hotter than Riverside CA? Same latitude and about the same elevation?


Even in California, the further inland one goes, the hotter it gets. Indio and Palm Springs are hotter than Riverside.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Even in California, the further inland one goes, the hotter it gets. Indio and Palm Springs are hotter than Riverside.


So, you think it's not the latitiude or the elevation (nor the orogeny). It's the decreasing longitude. You're right! but it's complicated..


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> So, you think it's not the latitiude or the elevation (nor the orogeny). It's the decreasing longitude. You're right! but it's complicated..


In California, the onshore airflow from the Pacific plays a major role. As one moves further inland, the onshore flow has less of an impact.


----------



## Flamme

Its raining...


----------



## progmatist

Flamme said:


> Its raining...


Send some of that rain my way. We need it desperately.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Send some of that rain my way. We need it desperately.


Few plants can grow in the cold places on Earth, and few plants can grow in the hot places like yours. We're thinking there might be intelligent life out there, within 2 million light years? Is that logical?


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Few plants can grow in the cold places on Earth, and few plants can grow in the hot places like yours. We're thinking there might be intelligent life out there, within 2 million light years? Is that logical?


And some worry about the danger of broadcasting our business into the universe, attracting hostile invaders. We've only been broadcasting radio/television waves for about a century. The civilization would have to be within 100 light years of us to receive our signals.


----------



## Flamme

Oh they did buddy, they did!!!


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> And some worry about the danger of broadcasting our business into the universe, attracting hostile invaders. We've only been broadcasting radio/television waves for about a century. The civilization would have to be within 100 light years of us to receive our signals.


It's interesting to report that out of 300 sun-like stars recently studied, NO star was as calm (inactive) and safe as our Sol.


----------



## Roger Knox

*That darn Atlantic Ocean.*

"New data compiled by meteorologists around the world proves just how quickly our planet is warming. ... the data shows that waters in the Atlantic Ocean are warming fast, and could fuel wild weather events, and impact marine ecosystems." Global News (Canadian TV), May 23.

In the warmer ocean climate, hurricanes now generate for a longer time in moister air, picking up more energy -- then are more powerful heading to shore. Marine life is moving north off the coast of Atlantic Canada. Right whales face human-generated hazards such as getting caught in fishing nets.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Weather here seems to be running a month late, currently plenty of April showers!


----------



## pianozach

progmatist said:


> And some worry about the danger of broadcasting our business into the universe, attracting hostile invaders. We've only been broadcasting radio/television waves for about a century. The civilization would have to be within 100 light years of us to receive our signals.


Interesting point.

I doubt that our radio waves travel at the speed of light; light travels 186 thousand miles in 1 second, while sound takes almost 5 seconds to travel 1 mile.

It does make me about space oriented sci-fi films and series. Star Trek always used "sub-space transmissions", but I don't really know what sort of scientific rationale their using as a basis for it.


----------



## pianozach

Roger Knox said:


> *That darn Atlantic Ocean.*
> 
> "New data compiled by meteorologists around the world proves just how quickly our planet is warming. ... the data shows that waters in the Atlantic Ocean are warming fast, and could fuel wild weather events, and impact marine ecosystems." Global News (Canadian TV), May 23.
> 
> In the warmer ocean climate, *hurricanes now generate for a longer time in moister air, picking up more energy -- then are more powerful heading to shore. * Marine life is moving north off the coast of Atlantic Canada. Right whales face human-generated hazards such as getting caught in fishing nets.


Hurricanes: Getting more powerful, more plentiful, and hurricane season keeps getting longer.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> Interesting point.
> 
> I doubt that our radio waves travel at the speed of light; light travels 186 thousand miles in 1 second, while sound takes almost 5 seconds to travel 1 mile.
> 
> It does make me about space oriented sci-fi films and series. Star Trek always used "sub-space transmissions", but I don't really know what sort of scientific rationale their using as a basis for it.


Radio waves are a kind of light wave.


----------



## progmatist

pianozach said:


> Hurricanes: Getting more powerful, more plentiful, and hurricane season keeps getting longer.


Not to mention we already have our first named storm, a week before the official start of hurricane season.


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> Radio waves are a kind of light wave.


I think you're right about this.

Still - if a civilization 65 light years away were listening, they'd be hearing *Elvis, Nelson Riddle*, and the *Platters*. And radio programs like *Ozzie and Harriet*, and the *Amos 'n' Andy* show.


----------



## Flamme

Cold at night and in morning hot as hell during daytime...This will be one crazy burning summer.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Forecast temperature 20C today 21C tomorrow

Methinks this is relevant


----------



## WNvXXT

Most of May my cycling has been in the morning, and the temperatures start out around 68.0F / 20.0C. Today, the 1st of June, I missed my morning ride and took off during the afternoon and it was 102F / 38.9C. Usually ride around 17 miles / 3 laps. Cut it short today to 14.


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

Here in Toronto we went from a several-day stretch of 30+ to 0 for a day(with some snow) to 30+ again (forecast for Saturday) in the span of 2 weeks. All degrees Celsius.


----------



## Flamme

It is craaazy hot...Like sun wants to blind, scorch and boil us in the same instance...


----------



## progmatist

Flamme said:


> It is craaazy hot...Like sun wants to blind, scorch and boil us in the same instance...


Just like the cicadas, I say "Yeah? So?" We get cicadas every summer, and it gets crazy hot here every summer.


----------



## Flamme

This rain is God-send. Feels a bit unhealthy anbd warm-ish but still it falls in some joyful manner!


----------



## Roger Knox

TwoFlutesOneTrumpet said:


> Here in Toronto we went from a several-day stretch of 30+ to 0 for a day(with some snow) to 30+ again (forecast for Saturday) in the span of 2 weeks. All degrees Celsius.


Living in Toronto I can vouch for this report. We didn't have such variability when I was younger. Planning for tomorrow now requires revision the next morning.


----------



## Roger Knox

Flamme said:


> It is craaazy hot...Like sun wants to blind, scorch and boil us in the same instance...


Yikes, I hope there's somewhere to cool off.


----------



## Flamme

Is anyone else noticing how WEIRD everything is lately...Weather included...We just had a LOUD thunder in one half of the sky while in other it was a sunny evening...Not a drop of rain fell...Hopefully it will.


----------



## pianozach

Woke up yesterday with my smart phone displaying an Extreme Weather Advisory.

I live a tad inland in Southern California, and we're expecting some high 90s (F°) next week. 

Further inland, in Death Valley, it is expected to get up to 128° next Thursday.


----------



## Flamme

Let it be...Breeze.


----------



## progmatist

pianozach said:


> Woke up yesterday with my smart phone displaying an Extreme Weather Advisory.
> 
> I live a tad inland in Southern California, and we're expecting some high 90s (F°) next week.
> 
> Further inland, in Death Valley, it is expected to get up to 128° next Thursday.


Here in the Phoenix area, we're experiencing our pre-monsoonal temperature spike weeks early.


----------



## TxllxT

Yesterday night my mother's place of living (Harderwijk, in the centre of NL) received such heavy torrents of rain in a very short period of time that the pedestrian's pavement in front of her door 'crumbled' from nice smooth to a broken puzzle of loose tiles. It seems that climate change is revealing itself more and more in the form of nasty tropical blasts of rain.


----------



## WNvXXT

For me, a 90F / 32.2C low is significant. We've been setting record the last couple days.




> 000
> SXUS75 KVEF 191038 CCB
> RERVEF
> 
> RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS, NV
> 338 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2021
> 
> ...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 18...
> 
> A *RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 90 WAS SET AT LAS VEGAS* NV
> YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86, WHICH WAS SET IN
> 2017. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR LAS VEGAS DATE BACK TO 1937.
> 
> A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 101 WAS SET AT DEATH VALLEY CA
> YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 94, WHICH WAS SET IN
> 1961. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR DEATH VALLEY DATE BACK TO 1911.
> 
> A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 90 WAS SET AT NEEDLES CA
> YESTERDAY. THIS TIED THE OLD RECORD, WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN
> 1899. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR NEEDLES DATE BACK TO 1888.
> 
> A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 87 WAS SET AT BARSTOW DAGGETT
> CA YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 79, WHICH WAS SET IN
> 1971. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BARSTOW DAGGETT DATE BACK TO 1943.
> 
> A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 76 WAS SET AT KINGMAN AZ
> YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 73, WHICH WAS SET IN 2000.
> TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KINGMAN DATE BACK TO 1901.
> 
> ...CORRECTED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 18...
> 
> A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 124 WAS SET AT DEATH VALLEY CA
> YESTERDAY. THIS TIED THE PREVIOUS RECORD, WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY SET
> IN 2017. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR DEATH VALLEY DATE BACK TO 1911.
> 
> A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 122 WAS SET AT NEEDLES CA YESTERDAY.
> THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 119, WHICH WAS SET IN 2017. TEMPERATURE
> RECORDS FOR NEEDLES DATE BACK TO 1888.
> 
> A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 113 WAS SET AT BARSTOW DAGGETT CA
> YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 112, WHICH WAS SET IN 1985.
> TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BARSTOW DAGGETT DATE BACK TO 1943.
> 
> A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 109 WAS SET AT MERCURY DESERT ROCK NV
> YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 108, WHICH WAS SET IN 2017.
> TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MERCURY DESERT ROCK DATE BACK TO 1978.
> 
> A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 111 WAS SET AT KINGMAN AZ YESTERDAY.
> THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 109, WHICH WAS SET IN 2017. TEMPERATURE
> RECORDS FOR KINGMAN DATE BACK TO 1901.
> 
> THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO A FINAL REVIEW.
> FOR FINAL CERTIFIED DATA, PLEASE CONTACT NOAA`S NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
> ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI) LOCATED IN ASHEVILLE, NORTH
> CAROLINA.





> 000
> sxus75 kvef 170029
> rervef
> 
> record event report
> national weather service las vegas, nv
> 529 pm pdt wed jun 16 2021
> 
> ...record high temperatures for june 16...
> 
> A record high temperature of 107 was set at bishop ca today. This
> broke the old record of 104 which was set in 1961. Temperature
> records for bishop date back to 1943.
> 
> A *record high temperature of 116 was set at las vegas nv* today. This
> broke the old record of 114, which was set in 1940. Temperature
> records for las vegas date back to 1937.
> 
> A record high temperature of 115 was set at barstow daggett ca
> today. This broke the old record of 110, which was set in 2000. This
> is also the earliest in the season that barstow daggett has ever
> reached 115 degrees, breaking the old record of june 19, which was
> set in 2017. Temperature records for barstow daggett date back to
> 1943.
> 
> A record high temperature of 118 was tied at needles ca today. The
> record was originally set in 1896, and tied in 1917 and 2000.
> Temperature records for needles date back to 1888.
> 
> A record high temperature of 110 was set at mercury desert rock nv
> today. This broke the old record of 103, which was set in 2017.
> Temperature records for mercury desert rock date back to 1978.
> 
> A record high temperature of 125 was set at death valley ca today.
> This broke the old record of 123, which was set in 1917. Temperature
> records for death valley date back to 1911.
> 
> The above information is preliminary and subject to a final review.
> For final certified data, please contact noaa`s national centers for
> environmental information (ncei) located in asheville, north
> carolina.


----------



## progmatist

WNvXXT said:


> For me, a 90F / 32.2C low is significant. We've been setting record the last couple days.


Climatologists are predicting within a decade or two, we'll start seeing morning lows of 100 here in Phoenix.


----------



## WNvXXT

progmatist said:


> Climatologists are predicting within a decade or two, we'll start seeing morning lows of 100 here in Phoenix.


Temperature forecasting. Right up there with roulette.


----------



## progmatist

WNvXXT said:


> Temperature forecasting. Right up there with roulette.


But the trend is pointing in that direction. We have more and more mornings with a low in the 90s, up to the mid 90s.


----------



## progmatist

The world is upside down when it's equally as hot in Portland OR as it is in Phoenix, as was the case yesterday. Particularly when it's on the 31 year anniversary of our all time high, 122.


----------



## Roger Knox

The Canadian record for hottest temperature was broken yesterday with a high of 46.6 degrees Celsius (115.9 F.) at Lytton, British Columbia, a town a quite a way northeast of Vancouver, according to the Weather Network:

"A phenomenon known as a heat dome, something more common to the U.S. Southwest, is the cause of this extreme heat. It is defined as an area of intense high pressure, beneath which descending air compresses into layers near the surface, warming drastically as it does so."


----------



## senza sordino

Roger Knox said:


> The Canadian record for hottest temperature was broken yesterday with a high of 46.6 degrees Celsius (115.9 F.) at Lytton, British Columbia, a town a quite a way northeast of Vancouver, according to the Weather Network:
> 
> "A phenomenon known as a heat dome, something more common to the U.S. Southwest, is the cause of this extreme heat. It is defined as an area of intense high pressure, beneath which descending air compresses into layers near the surface, warming drastically as it does so."


I can attest to this heat. Lytton broke its own record today by a degree. 47.7 degrees Celsius. Lytton is about a four hour drive from here. It was over 36 degrees Celsius where I live closer to the coast. Right now, at 9 pm, it's still over 32 degrees Celsius on my patio. Inside my apartment it's about 29 degrees Celsius. My windows are closed because I don't want the hot air coming in. Right now the overnight low is higher than our average daytime high. There is absolutely no breeze today. It's so bad here we're making international news.

I don't have air conditioning, most people here don't.


----------



## progmatist

Tomorrow's forecast calls for raining frogs.


----------



## WNvXXT




----------



## senza sordino

senza sordino said:


> I can attest to this heat. Lytton broke its own record today by a degree. 47.7 degrees Celsius. Lytton is about a four-hour drive from here. It was over 36 degrees Celsius where I live closer to the coast. Right now, at 9 pm, it's still over 32 degrees Celsius on my patio. Inside my apartment, it's about 29 degrees Celsius. My windows are closed because I don't want the hot air coming in. Right now the overnight low is higher than our average daytime high. There is absolutely no breeze today. It's so bad here we're making international news.
> 
> I don't have air conditioning, most people here don't.


Lytton, B.C., broke its own record today, 49.5 °C. 121.1 °F.

Dozens of deaths in the metro region have been attributed to the extreme heat this past weekend. Last evening I kept my windows closed because it was hotter outside than inside my apartment. At 11:30 pm last night, the outside temperature matched the temperature inside - 30 °C, so I opened my windows and attempted to fall asleep.

Today, the temperature here on the coast was slightly less than the peak yesterday. And more importantly, the humidity is less today, so it feels decidedly cooler. The worst is over, but we still have many many days ahead of higher than average temperatures. This extreme heat we just experienced was record-setting and dangerous, high enough to attract the international media. I've been watching BBC International News about my local weather.


----------



## Flamme




----------



## strawa

Rainy and very cold: 22º celsius.


----------



## Dan Ante

strawa said:


> Rainy and very cold: 22º celsius.


Wow too cold @ 22deg C what on earth do you consider warm or hot? :tiphat:


----------



## strawa

Once I was in Rio de Janeiro and was hot, 45º celsius. Between 25 and 35 I think it's ok. Where I live, less than 20 degrees and people start wearing scarves on the street.


----------



## progmatist

strawa said:


> Once I was in Rio de Janeiro and was hot, 45º celsius. Between 25 and 35 I think it's ok. Where I live, less than 20 degrees and people start wearing scarves on the street.


Here in the Desert Southwest, if it drops below 60f/15c, everyone starts bundling up in heavy coats. That's people who've lived here for a while. The "snowbirds" are wearing shorts, t-shirts and sandals.


----------



## Roger Knox

Lytton, British Columbia has gone up in a blaze. After the emergency evacuation some people are missing. The combination of a heat dome, drought, and trees has become tragic.

News reports refer to the "village" of Lytton; though small in population it is not an obscure or out-or-the-way place. It stands at the confluence of mighty Fraser and Thompson Rivers; seeing the line where brown silted Fraser and the clear blue Thompson encounter each other is an unforgettable sight.

It's by the main highway and the Canadian Pacific Railway.

http://www.ourbc.com/bc_maps/vancouver_coast/bc_maps_thompson_fraser.htm


----------



## TxllxT

In the South East of the Netherlands, around Maastricht, 100 mm of rain (80 mm is common for the whole of July) has fallen in three days. A bit further to the south, in the German Eiffel, 200 mm of rain has fallen. This cataclysm is still going on at present.


----------



## WNvXXT

Cooling has begun. Low temperature got below 90F / 32.2C the last two days. Here's the last couple bulletins:

Monday July 12

811
sxus75 kvef 120829
rervef

record event report
national weather service las vegas, nv
129 am pdt mon jul 12 2021

...new records set for july 11...

A record rainfall of 0.10 was set at las vegas nv sunday.
This breaks the old record of 0.05 set in 1989. Records for las
vegas date back to 1937.
____________
Sunday July 10

000
sxus75 kvef 110827
rervef

record event report
national weather service las vegas, nv
125 am pdt sun jul 10 2021

...record hot temperatures for july 10...

A record high temperature of 117 degrees was set at las vegas nv
saturday. This broke the previous record of 114, which was set in
1943 and tied in 2003 and 2012. This also tied the all time hottest
temperature recorded at the official observing site in las vegas.
The record was originally set july 24, 1942, and was tied on july
19, 2005, june 30, 2013, and june 20, 2017. A record warmest low
temperature of 94 degrees was also set at las vegas. This broke the
old record of 89, which was set in 2002. Temperature records for las
vegas date back to 1937.


----------



## Ingélou

Have just seen on the BBC news about terrible flooding with tragic loss of life in Germany & Belgium after rivers burst their banks after heavy rainfall, which is predicted to go on till Friday and also to move south into Italy.


----------



## atsizat

Actual temperature: 32.7 degrees

Humidity: 57%

Heat Index: 38 degrees


----------



## atsizat

We have an official forecast high of 36 degrees with a heat index of 48 degrees for today.


----------



## atsizat

Heat Index is 40 degrees in İzmit currently.


Actual Temp: 33.1 degrees

Humidity: 61%


----------



## starthrower

We're having a very rainy July here in upstate NY after an unusually dry spring. Things are reversed. For anyone paying attention to weather events around the world it's a very sobering reality. And yet we continue to pump carbon into the atmosphere like nothing has changed.


----------



## atsizat

Actual temperature inside my home is 30 and half degrees without taking humidity into consideration.

I am sweating so crazy sitting at home.


----------



## progmatist

atsizat said:


> Heat Index is 40 degrees in İzmit currently.
> 
> Actual Temp: 33.1 degrees
> 
> Humidity: 61%





atsizat said:


> Actual temperature: 32.7 degrees
> 
> Humidity: 57%
> 
> Heat Index: 38 degrees


Here in the desert southwest, the relative humidity percentage is a meaningless number. The dew point temperature is the only one which counts. With our high heat, when dew points rise into the mid 60s-F, or around 18.8C during the summer monsoon, it feels muggy but the relative percentage is only around 30%. Plus, as the air temperature fluctuates between the daytime high and morning low, the relative percentage will fluctuate inversely.



atsizat said:


> Actual temperature inside my home is 30 and half degrees without taking humidity into consideration.
> 
> I am sweating so crazy sitting at home.


Back in the 70s and early 80s, most houses here had evaporative, or "swamp" coolers. They work great when the air is dry, but when dew points rise during the summer monsoon, they work marginally well at best. Now most houses have a/c, which makes the entire area far more livable.


----------



## pianozach

Last week, in Death Valley, California it got to 54.4°C.

In "american", that's 129+°F


----------



## joen_cph

Saw that, in a different way of calculating, some affected parts of Germany have had 150 Liters of rain per m2 in a couple of days. That's a bloody lot, and surely explains those massive floodings.

Here in DK, a receding heat wave (by local standards), with up to 32 C. Now it's getting cooler, which is nice.


----------



## atsizat

progmatist said:


> Here in the desert southwest, the relative humidity percentage is a meaningless number. The dew point temperature is the only one which counts. With our high heat, when dew points rise into the mid 60s-F, or around 18.8C during the summer monsoon, it feels muggy but the relative percentage is only around 30%. Plus, as the air temperature fluctuates between the daytime high and morning low, the relative percentage will fluctuate inversely.
> 
> Back in the 70s and early 80s, most houses here had evaporative, or "swamp" coolers. They work great when the air is dry, but when dew points rise during the summer monsoon, they work marginally well at best. Now most houses have a/c, which makes the entire area far more livable.


You can calculate the heat index by knowing humidity percent and actual temp.

Dew Point was 24.5 degrees. I calculated it.


----------



## elgar's ghost

It's 26 deg c, due to rise to 30 deg later. Apparently there is nearly a whole week of this to come while a slow-moving area of high pressure hangs stubbornly over the British Isles. Great news for those who enjoy being burnt to a crisp, but I'm definitely not one of them.


----------



## Ingélou

elgars ghost said:


> It's 26 deg c, due to rise to 30 deg later. Apparently there is nearly a whole week of this to come while a slow-moving area of high pressure hangs stubbornly over the British Isles. Great news for those who enjoy being burnt to a crisp, but I'm definitely not one of them.


It's very hot upstairs at night - hard to sleep. I've never been good with heat (I'm a redhead) but it seems worse now that I'm older. 
Sorry to hear that it'll last all week - I was hoping that it would have cooled a little by Wednesday.


----------



## TxllxT

Today and yesterday we stayed in the Ruhrgebiet town Hattingen. The Ruhr river (which is not part of the calamity area in Germany) reached an all time peak record of +7 metres over there. When we inspected the area yesterday we saw a small monument with calamity peak water levels. On top there was mention made of 1898 with 6.48 metre. So now they will need to build a new top on the obelisk that is 50 cm higher. When we looked around the water level of the river had already fallen significantly. They speak of a tornado-like blitz of rising water that devastated many places in Germany.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Ingélou said:


> It's very hot upstairs at night - hard to sleep. I've never been good with heat (I'm a redhead) but it seems worse now that I'm older.
> Sorry to hear that it'll last all week - I was hoping that it would have cooled a little by Wednesday.


It might be a little cooler as you're further north but only the top half of Scotland will have temps pegged back in the late 10s/early 20s. Before too long we'll be complaining about how cold and dark it is. :lol:


----------



## Merl

Been around 20 degrees up here in the Kingdom of Fife, today, and vey cloudy. Trust me to pick today for a BBQ. I suspect from the look of the sky that I'll be cooking outside and we'll be eating inside. And no, that shitey, cuboid lump of leylandii is not ours. It belongs to the moron who lives next door. I hate the thing.


----------



## Ingélou

Hope you enjoy it anyway. 

Why do leylandiis always seem to go brown? 

PS - Your bit of garden looks very nice.


----------



## atsizat

As of 9:24 pm

Actual Temperature: 26.8 degrees

Heat Index: 29 degrees

Dewpoint: 22.6 degrees (humidity 78%)


Indoor temperature: 28.5 degrees


----------



## Guest

Around Houston Texas it's been a cooler than typical spring and summer. Usually this time of year you can expect it to be about 36 C (97 F) every day, sometimes as high as 38 C (100 F). This year it has consistently stayed below 32 or 33 centigrade (around 91 F). I have a sinking feeling that will change soon.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> And some worry about the danger of broadcasting our business into the universe, attracting hostile invaders. We've only been broadcasting radio/television waves for about a century. The civilization would have to be within 100 light years of us to receive our signals.


Our star becomes invisible to unaided eyes (human) at 80 light years. I've always thought that that was humbling..


----------



## Luchesi

pianozach said:


> Interesting point.
> 
> I doubt that our radio waves travel at the speed of light; light travels 186 thousand miles in 1 second, while sound takes almost 5 seconds to travel 1 mile.
> 
> It does make me about space oriented sci-fi films and series. Star Trek always used "sub-space transmissions", but I don't really know what sort of scientific rationale their using as a basis for it.


Radio waves can't travel slower than the speed of light (in the near vacuum of space). It's some kind of universal structure result. If we could only figure out why, it would be a breakthrough, leading to other understandings (cosmic man!).


----------



## Luchesi

pianozach said:


> Hurricanes: Getting more powerful, more plentiful, and hurricane season keeps getting longer.


They're not more numerous. They are more powerful! ...because any storm that can arise through the increased wind shear (due to global warming) will be on a feedback trajectory to grow very strong.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Living in Toronto I can vouch for this report. We didn't have such variability when I was younger. Planning for tomorrow now requires revision the next morning.


Yes. Slowly turn up the heat on a pot of water and watch for the chaotic changes. They come in surprising steps and stages, less intense and then more intense..


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> Hurricanes: Getting more powerful, more plentiful, and hurricane season keeps getting longer.





Luchesi said:


> They're not more numerous. They are more powerful! ...because any storm that can arise through the increased wind shear (due to global warming) will be on a feedback trajectory to grow very strong.


Actually I do believe that the number of hurricanes per season has been climbing.

The 2018 U.S. National Climate Change Assessment reported that "increases in greenhouse gases and decreases in air pollution have contributed to increases in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1970."

I seem to recall them actually running all the way through the alphabet in 2005 and having to resort to Greek letters.

http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm


----------



## Luchesi

pianozach said:


> Actually I do believe that the number of hurricanes per season has been climbing.
> 
> The 2018 U.S. National Climate Change Assessment reported that "increases in greenhouse gases and decreases in air pollution have contributed to increases in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1970."
> 
> I seem to recall them actually running all the way through the alphabet in 2005 and having to resort to Greek letters.
> 
> http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm


Thanks. From those numbers we can see the bump up in warming in 2011-2012 which, paradoxically, killed our 45 year old palm trees and Pyracantha bushes with an polar blast. Then, for a few years there were fewer major hurricanes, but now the balances have returned so that we're back to a little above average. If this trend upward continues it will be bad...


----------



## Flamme

Torrential rains, sleep easy...


----------



## atsizat

With an indoor temp of 31 degrees, I am sweating like hell at home.


----------



## atsizat

Dewpoint reached 24.5 degrees in İzmit 2 days ago and it was 23 something yesterday.

The current dewpoint is 22 degrees with a temperature of 28.2 degrees as of 9:15 pm, which is a late time. Be careful of the time.

I am sweating so bad these days. I am having a real hard time of sleeping at home with above average dewpoints and temperatures.

People in İzmit don't have AC in their homes.

My indoor temp was 31 degrees earlier. It is currently 29.5 degrees.


----------



## progmatist

pianozach said:


> Actually I do believe that the number of hurricanes per season has been climbing.
> 
> The 2018 U.S. National Climate Change Assessment reported that "increases in greenhouse gases and decreases in air pollution have contributed to increases in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1970."
> 
> I seem to recall them actually running all the way through the alphabet in 2005 and having to resort to Greek letters.
> 
> http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm


This year we had the earliest "E" named storm.


----------



## progmatist

atsizat said:


> You can calculate the heat index by knowing humidity percent and actual temp.
> 
> Dew Point was 24.5 degrees. I calculated it.


On the Weather Channel here in the US, they almost always refer to the dew point temperature, not the percentage. Even when discussing more moist climates where the relative humidity percentage is more relevant.


----------



## atsizat

progmatist said:


> On the Weather Channel here in the US, they almost always refer to the dew point temperature, not the percentage. Even when discussing more moist climates where the relative humidity percentage is more relevant.


Where I live, nobody at all knows such a thing as dewpoint.

I must be the only Turkish who used dewpoint.

I believe dewpoint is only used in USA and Canada. I don't think it is used anywhere else.


----------



## atsizat

It is tiring me to calculate dewpoints by writting air temps and humidity percentage on Google every time.

No one knows or uses any such thing as dewpoint in Turkey.

When I actually use dewpoint, people are like, oh, cut the s***.

That's how I can calculate it:

https://www.calculator.net/dew-point-calculator.html

I bought a Turkish book about climates and meterology but it hasn't mentioned one word of dewpoint.

I coud just learn it from an american weather forum. On internet.


----------



## atsizat

It is almost 10 pm here and my indoor temp is 29 degrees.

Also humidity is high here. Sweating very bad at home.


----------



## Bulldog

Given New Mexico's dry climate, most homes have "swamp coolers"; cool water is vented into each room. In less desirable homes, there's just one cooling outlet through the ceiling. The problem with swamp coolers is that they are less effective when the humidity is high, and folks here consider any humidity to be too much.


----------



## progmatist

atsizat said:


> Where I live, nobody at all knows such a thing as dewpoint.
> 
> I must be the only Turkish who used dewpoint.
> 
> I believe dewpoint is only used in USA and Canada. I don't think it is used anywhere else.


The dew point would fall into the category of "geek speak." The relative humidity is an easier concept to wrap one's head around. The only problem is in any dry desert climate, the relative percentage becomes irrelevant.



Bulldog said:


> Given New Mexico's dry climate, most homes have "swamp coolers"; cool water is vented into each room. In less desirable homes, there's just one cooling outlet through the ceiling. The problem with swamp coolers is that they are less effective when the humidity is high, and folks here consider any humidity to be too much.


And you in NM receive the same monsoonal flow of moisture we do in AZ. But it's so much hotter in the Phoenix area, we've had to replace the swamp coolers with a/c. About the only place swamp coolers are still useful is workplaces, like a mechanic's garage. With the doors remaining open all day, the constant airflow from a cooler is the only thing effective, and not wasteful.


----------



## Luchesi

Bulldog said:


> Given New Mexico's dry climate, most homes have "swamp coolers"; cool water is vented into each room. In less desirable homes, there's just one cooling outlet through the ceiling. The problem with swamp coolers is that they are less effective when the humidity is high, and folks here consider any humidity to be too much.


If it's 105F with low humidity, how cool is the output the evaporation can produce? 85F?, a 20 degree reduction? Is it enough?


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> The dew point would fall into the category of "geek speak." The relative humidity is an easier concept to wrap one's head around. The only problem is in any dry desert climate, the relative percentage becomes irrelevant.
> 
> And you in NM receive the same monsoonal flow of moisture we do in AZ. But it's so much hotter in the Phoenix area, we've had to replace the swamp coolers with a/c. About the only place swamp coolers are still useful is workplaces, like a mechanic's garage. With the doors remaining open all day, the constant airflow from a cooler is the only thing effective, and not wasteful.


Also absolute humidity, precipitable water, wetbulb temperature. The elevation of Phoenix is unfortunate. 4.4F per 1000 ft.


----------



## atsizat

progmatist said:


> The dew point would fall into the category of "geek speak." The relative humidity is an easier concept to wrap one's head around. The only problem is in any dry desert climate, the relative percentage becomes irrelevant.
> 
> And you in NM receive the same monsoonal flow of moisture we do in AZ. But it's so much hotter in the Phoenix area, we've had to replace the swamp coolers with a/c. About the only place swamp coolers are still useful is workplaces, like a mechanic's garage. With the doors remaining open all day, the constant airflow from a cooler is the only thing effective, and not wasteful.


Relative humidity chances according to temperatures even the actual humidity is the same so dewpoint is more useful than relative humidity and you have to judge the relative humidity according to the temperature.

However, Met Office uses only Relative humidity on its website and it is tiring to calculate the the dewpoint every time I check the condition on Met Office by writting Relative Humidity and Temperature on a calculater site on Google.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> If it's 105F with low humidity, how cool is the output the evaporation can produce? 85F?, a 20 degree reduction? Is it enough?


Even more than 20 degrees. When it's dry, a cooler can blow air at 78 to 80 degrees when it's 110 outside. When it's dry, the heat index is a few degrees below the actual air temperature. Because when we sweat, the sweat evaporates and cools us off. When it's 108, it "feels" like 103 or 104. During the monsoon, coolers will indeed blow air at 85 degrees. Likewise, the heat index is greater than or equal to the air temperature.


----------



## Bulldog

Luchesi said:


> If it's 105F with low humidity, how cool is the output the evaporation can produce? 85F?, a 20 degree reduction? Is it enough?


A lot lower than 85F - my home has never been higher than 76F when humidity is low. Our home has two coolers.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Even more than 20 degrees. When it's dry, a cooler can blow air at 78 to 80 degrees when it's 110 outside. When it's dry, the heat index is a few degrees below the actual air temperature. Because when we sweat, the sweat evaporates and cools us off. When it's 108, it "feels" like 103 or 104. During the monsoon, coolers will indeed blow air at 85 degrees. Likewise, the heat index is greater than or equal to the air temperature.


This company is selling coolers.

"Here's an overview example of the heat/humidity with expected temperature drops from evaporative cooling:


*Temperature**Humidity**Drop in temp***City****Hot/Dry*105°F20%30°FPhoenix, AZ*Hot/Humid *95°F55%13°FHouston, TX*Warm/Dry*90°F20%24°FAlbuquerque, NM*Warm/Humid *80°F60%11°FSan Jose, CA
 _*The temperature drop provided only reflects the performance of Portacool's Kuul Comfort™ evaporative media. The drop does not factor in the velocity or volume of the air provided by our high-performance fans (wind chill). The "real-feel" or perceived temperature will be cooler. Results will vary based on your current conditions"
_
It's better than I thought, but they're selling coolers.. The units are placed on the hot sunny roof to save on venting costs.


----------



## Bulldog

Luchesi said:


> It's better than I thought, but they're selling coolers.. The units are placed on the hot sunny roof to save on venting costs.


Coolers on roofs are problematic in that temperature balance in different rooms is poor.

My home has 2 coolers, each on ground level. The air is vented in the same way as the heat in winter.


----------



## Luchesi

Bulldog said:


> Coolers on roofs are problematic in that temperature balance in different rooms is poor.
> 
> My home has 2 coolers, each on ground level. The air is vented in the same way as the heat in winter.


Trying to save money I've struggled with the water cooler option. Climbing on the roof every week or so to check for air leaks between the pads and also in the slightly rusted cracks in the metal housing, it was slippery up there and dangerous. I dreaded buying the replacement parts every spring and usually paying someone to do all that. I ended up getting window AC units. They're always working and the cooling amount is controllable.
I wonder how hot it gets inside those metal boxes. I never checked that. Is that a limiting factor?


----------



## Flamme

Hot n humid...


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> Last week, in Death Valley, California it got to 54.4°C.
> 
> In "american", that's 129+°F





atsizat said:


> I bought a Turkish book about climates . . .


Just as there are rankings for Hurricanes (Categories 1-5), out here we have categories for drought (from D0 - D4).

*None
D0 (Abnormally Dry)
D1 (Moderate Drought)
D2 (Severe Drought)
D3 (Extreme Drought)
D4 (Exceptional Drought)*

Frankly it sounds as though at one time "*Severe*" may have been the worst ranking, but then they discovered they needed a new category worse than "*Severe*", and opted for "*Extreme*". And then needed something to describe when a drought is worse than both *Severe AND Extreme*, so then added "*Exceptional*".

THE BAD NEWS: If this trend of water levels dropping, and wildfire conditions continuing, and a huge swath of land from *California* through the Southwest is currently in the worst category of drought, "D4-Exceptional drought" (that is the HIGHEST ranking of drought conditions; there is no D5), this may be a foreshadowing of things to come.

*33% of the state of CALIFORNIA is currently at D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.*

*85% of the state is at D3 ("Extreme Drought").*

*94.75% of the state is at D2 ("Severe Drought")*

100% of the state is at D1 (*"Moderate"* Drought)

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

We may be facing not only an electricity shortage, but a water shortage as well.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> This company is selling coolers.
> 
> "Here's an overview example of the heat/humidity with expected temperature drops from evaporative cooling:
> 
> 
> *Temperature**Humidity**Drop in temp***City****Hot/Dry*105°F20%30°FPhoenix, AZ*Hot/Humid *95°F55%13°FHouston, TX*Warm/Dry*90°F20%24°FAlbuquerque, NM*Warm/Humid *80°F60%11°FSan Jose, CA
> _*The temperature drop provided only reflects the performance of Portacool's Kuul Comfort™ evaporative media. The drop does not factor in the velocity or volume of the air provided by our high-performance fans (wind chill). The "real-feel" or perceived temperature will be cooler. Results will vary based on your current conditions"
> _
> It's better than I thought, but they're selling coolers.. The units are placed on the hot sunny roof to save on venting costs.


Here in Phoenix, meteorologists use the magic number of 55. Once the dew point temperature reaches 55 or above, that's when coolers stop working so well. That's also the dew point at which the atmosphere supports rain. If it's drier at the surface, at most we get verga: rain which evaporates before it hits the ground. At the higher elevation of Flagstaff AZ, that magic dew point drops to 45 degrees.



Luchesi said:


> Trying to save money I've struggled with the water cooler option. Climbing on the roof every week or so to check for air leaks between the pads and also in the slightly rusted cracks in the metal housing, it was slippery up there and dangerous. I dreaded buying the replacement parts every spring and usually paying someone to do all that. I ended up getting window AC units. They're always working and the cooling amount is controllable.
> I wonder how hot it gets inside those metal boxes. I never checked that. Is that a limiting factor?


The temperature inside the box is quite cold. The air passing through the wet pads is what cools it. I grew up in a house in which the cooler didn't have a reservoir or sump pump. Water would constantly flow through the pads, and down a hose connected to the drain. The water coming out of the hose was quite cold. We would often drink that water because it was so refreshing. Mind you: at the time we had no problem drinking out of the garden hose. Unlike today in which if water doesn't come in a plastic bottle, people won't drink it.

BTW: my dad eventually installed a reservoir and sump pump. He installed a thermostat to automatically shut of the cooler when it got too cold in the house overnight. It would've been a total waste to have water constantly flowing through the cooler when it wasn't even running.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Here in Phoenix, meteorologists use the magic number of 55. Once the dew point temperature reaches 55 or above, that's when coolers stop working so well. That's also the dew point at which the atmosphere supports rain. If it's drier at the surface, at most we get verga: rain which evaporates before it hits the ground. At the higher elevation of Flagstaff AZ, that magic dew point drops to 45 degrees.
> 
> The temperature inside the box is quite cold. The air passing through the wet pads is what cools it. I grew up in a house in which the cooler didn't have a reservoir or sump pump. Water would constantly flow through the pads, and down a hose connected to the drain. The water coming out of the hose was quite cold. We would often drink that water because it was so refreshing. Mind you: at the time we had no problem drinking out of the garden hose. Unlike today in which if water doesn't come in a plastic bottle, people won't drink it.
> 
> BTW: my dad eventually installed a reservoir and sump pump. He installed a thermostat to automatically shut of the cooler when it got too cold in the house overnight. It would've been a total waste to have water constantly flowing through the cooler when it wasn't even running.


Paradoxically, when the dewpoint is within 8 degrees of the temperature we get fog, no rain showers, as a reliable rule. People ask what has changed from the day before and so how can the new condition be predicted?
I'm interested in how people interpret what's out the window through the seasons. Historically we didn't know. It's intriguing to some people but not others. I don't think meteorology is taught well in schools, and it's so interesting. Especially the history of what used to be believed vs today's science.


----------



## joen_cph

A day at the beach, but in 1899 ...

a coloured movie from Etretat, Normandy, not so far from Paris, back then


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Paradoxically, when the dewpoint is within 8 degrees of the temperature we get fog, no rain showers, as a reliable rule. People ask what has changed from the day before and so how can the new condition be predicted?
> I'm interested in how people interpret what's out the window through the seasons. Historically we didn't know. It's intriguing to some people but not others. I don't think meteorology is taught well in schools, and it's so interesting. Especially the history of what used to be believed vs today's science.


Here, when the dew point EQUALS the air temperature we get fog. A rare occurrence indeed, and only in the winter.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Here, when the dew point EQUALS the air temperature we get fog. A rare occurrence indeed, and only in the winter.


You won't convince me of that without observations. Maybe it's the heat retained in the ground. Maybe it's the mixing in from Death Valley near the friction level. These contribute to making fog rare, but the physics is the same everywhere.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> You won't convince me of that without observations. Maybe it's the heat retained in the ground. Maybe it's the mixing in from Death Valley near the friction level. These contribute to making fog rare, but the physics is the same everywhere.


As I said, in the winter...when temps dip to the low 40s or upper 30s. And typically after a heavy rain.


----------



## Flamme

Like in sahara...


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> As I said, in the winter...when temps dip to the low 40s or upper 30s. And typically after a heavy rain.


Yes, but we give others the wrong idea if we say that the Phoenix area is somehow different (when the dew point EQUALS the air temperature we get fog). The required thresholds are the same all over the world and that's what makes meteorology worth the effort to study. People assume it's more open-ended and random than it is, because it does look like a complicated mess. It's always bugged me.

When I forcasted at Williams AFB we looked for low-lying fog forming at a 8 degree spread. If we saw that the spread would get worse against the atmospheric tide caused by the sun and the positions of the heat lows, the training sorties were canceled (an expensive no/go). The pilots were young there, right out of flight school.


----------



## Flamme

Literally https://www.severe-weather.eu/europ...qQl1ZrL8UFU92Y8MkowcEySpzQs1cimu-lwnpTgKfMnNg


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Yes, but we give others the wrong idea if we say that the Phoenix area is somehow different (when the dew point EQUALS the air temperature we get fog). The required thresholds are the same all over the world and that's what makes meteorology worth the effort to study. People assume it's more open-ended and random than it is, because it does look like a complicated mess. It's always bugged me.
> 
> When I forcasted at Williams AFB we looked for low-lying fog forming at a 8 degree spread. If we saw that the spread would get worse against the atmospheric tide caused by the sun and the positions of the heat lows, the training sorties were canceled (an expensive no/go). The pilots were young there, right out of flight school.


Where else would you forecast? Williams AFB, now Williams Gateway Airport is where the NWS radar is located.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Where else would you forecast? Williams AFB, now Williams Gateway Airport is where the NWS radar is located.


 Pretty much all over. We were just reminiscing about this at a party last Saturday. Every continent except South America (I think Panama is in North America) . Including Antarctica and the west coast of Australia


----------



## joen_cph

Lovely summer at Sose strand beach on Bornholm, the most interesting among the smaller Danish islands, Møn being number two ... a bit windy today, average 10 m/s, temperatures 20-23 C.


----------



## atsizat

Temperature: 35.6°C

Dewpoint: 15.8°C


----------



## progmatist

This monsoon, we've had more rain than the last 2 monsoons combined. And July isn't even over yet. The monsoon typically ends mid September.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> This monsoon, we've had more rain than the last 2 monsoons combined. And July isn't even over yet. The monsoon typically ends mid September.


It might be global warming - causing the continuing warm-up and energizing of the planetary wave patterns over the Southwest since 2011.

Because what happened this year is that the Gulf of Mexico high pressure became more and more intense and it circulated the moisture into Mexico and then up from down there. This resulted in the moisture evading the midlevel prevailing flow north of it, in the Southwest. So it's a better year.

Many locations have gotten little rain in the recent past so when the amount doubles people notice.


----------



## senza sordino

We are having another heatwave here. Nothing like the temperatures that some of you get, but it's hot for here. Especially considering most of us do not have air conditioning. I'm in that big city on the west coast, north of that extremely long undefended border. 

At the airport, next to the water 27.0 °C, the dewpoint at the airport is 19.4 °C.

Inland where I am it's 30 °C and the humidex (what it feels like) is 33 °C

And we haven't had any rain in more than 45 days, that's a record. We're supposed to be living in a temperature rain forest - not anymore.


----------



## atsizat

senza sordino said:


> We are having another heatwave here. Nothing like the temperatures that some of you get, but it's hot for here. Especially considering most of us do not have air conditioning. I'm in that big city on the west coast, north of that extremely long undefended border.
> 
> At the airport, next to the water 27.0 °C, the dewpoint at the airport is 19.4 °C.
> 
> Inland where I am it's 30 °C and the humidex (what it feels like) is 33 °C
> 
> And we haven't had any rain in more than 45 days, that's a record. We're supposed to be living in a temperature rain forest - not anymore.


Canadian Humidex says higher than Heat Index.

I would say Heat Index is the accurate one, Humidex exeggerates numbers.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> It might be global warming - causing the continuing warm-up and energizing of the planetary wave patterns over the Southwest since 2011.
> 
> Because what happened this year is that the Gulf of Mexico high pressure became more and more intense and it circulated the moisture into Mexico and then up from down there. This resulted in the moisture evading the midlevel prevailing flow north of it, in the Southwest. So it's a better year.
> 
> Many locations have gotten little rain in the recent past so when the amount doubles people notice.


There's also a correlation with Atlantic hurricane activity. In more active seasons, we have a more active monsoon. This year has already been particularly active.


----------



## Luchesi

senza sordino said:


> We are having another heatwave here. Nothing like the temperatures that some of you get, but it's hot for here. Especially considering most of us do not have air conditioning. I'm in that big city on the west coast, north of that extremely long undefended border.
> 
> At the airport, next to the water 27.0 °C, the dewpoint at the airport is 19.4 °C.
> 
> Inland where I am it's 30 °C and the humidex (what it feels like) is 33 °C
> 
> And we haven't had any rain in more than 45 days, that's a record. We're supposed to be living in a temperature rain forest - not anymore.


You should get back to normal rain-wise by Thursday. There was an impressive high pressure which built up from the south - between two very slow moving lows.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> There's also a correlation with Atlantic hurricane activity. In more active seasons, we have a more active monsoon. This year has already been particularly active.


Yes, hurricanes over there lift the moisture above the friction layer and then the high pressure nudges it eastward across Texas. I haven't seen it coming across Texas recently, but mesoscale conditions change every three or four days so I might've missed it.

As a result of stronger windshear hurricanes should be less in number, but the added energy will make them stronger if they can break through. I haven't seen this outcome yet, it's theoretical and it might be yet too early in the warming.

added:
Now the numerical models are saying that a hurricane will begin to move up the coast of Mexico by the 14th of August. This would add to that moisture tongue for Phoenix and Nevada, and spread out to the east.


----------



## atsizat

36.8 degrees currently.


----------



## progmatist

atsizat said:


> 36.8 degrees currently.


The wildfires in your country are making international news.


----------



## Open Book

Watching the Olympics we have heard that the weather in Tokyo is hot, humid, and oppressive, over 90 F (32 C) degrees and feels 10 degrees hotter. Tennis players who sometimes have to play for hours keep complaining about it. Anyone know if these temperatures are historically typical for Japan or is it a recent change in climate?


----------



## progmatist

Open Book said:


> Watching the Olympics we have heard that the weather in Tokyo is hot, humid, and oppressive, over 90 F (32 C) degrees and feels 10 degrees hotter. Tennis players who sometimes have to play for hours keep complaining about it. Anyone know if these temperatures are historically typical for Japan or is it a recent change in climate?


During the Korean war, the heat was a major problem for US and other soldiers in the UN force. The Korean peninsula is just across the sea of Japan from Japan.


----------



## Taplow

Open Book said:


> Watching the Olympics we have heard that the weather in Tokyo is hot, humid, and oppressive, over 90 F (32 C) degrees and feels 10 degrees hotter. Tennis players who sometimes have to play for hours keep complaining about it. Anyone know if these temperatures are historically typical for Japan or is it a recent change in climate?


This is fairly typical. Tokyo has a very hot, humid climate in Summer. I usually visit Japan in Autumn, not just because of the milder temperatures, but well, it's my favourite season on any continent. But I do remember one summer in Tokyo in 1991. I thought accounts of the humidity were exaggerated … they weren't.


----------



## atsizat

Today's high was 38 degrees here.

In the following days, 40 degrees is expected in the forecast.


----------



## atsizat

progmatist said:


> The wildfires in your country are making international news.


I feel on fire as well.

Some days ago, heat index reached 41 degrees if not higher and dewpoint reached 24.5 degrees if not higher.

Actual temperature was 38 degrees today and according to forecast, the actual temperature will hit 40 degrees also in the following days.

These days actual temperatures are higher and dewpoints are lower.

A while ago, it was opposite with heat index being as high as 41 degrees if not higher.


----------



## atsizat

Turkey broke its all time record with 49.1 degrees in Southeastern Turkey near the Syria. The previous record was 49 degrees, which was only 0.1 degrees cooler.


----------



## WNvXXT

the heat was hot and the ground was dry but the air was full of sound

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1248 PM PDT Mon Aug 2 2021

1248 PM PDT Mon Aug 2 2021 /1248 PM MST Mon Aug 2 2021/

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM PDT /10 AM MST/
TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT /8 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with high temperatures of 110
to 115 in the Morongo and Cadiz basins and 115 to 120 in the
Lake Mead National Recreation Area and Colorado River Valley.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Arizona, southeast California
and southern Nevada.

* WHEN...From 10 AM PDT /10 AM MST/ Tuesday to 8 PM PDT /8 PM
MST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat will significantly increase the
potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those
working or participating in outdoor activities.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.


----------



## progmatist

WNvXXT said:


> the heat was hot and the ground was dry but the air was full of sound
> 
> URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
> National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
> 1248 PM PDT Mon Aug 2 2021
> 
> 1248 PM PDT Mon Aug 2 2021 /1248 PM MST Mon Aug 2 2021/
> 
> ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM PDT /10 AM MST/
> TUESDAY TO 8 PM PDT /8 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY...
> 
> * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with high temperatures of 110
> to 115 in the Morongo and Cadiz basins and 115 to 120 in the
> Lake Mead National Recreation Area and Colorado River Valley.
> 
> * WHERE...Portions of northwest Arizona, southeast California
> and southern Nevada.
> 
> * WHEN...From 10 AM PDT /10 AM MST/ Tuesday to 8 PM PDT /8 PM
> MST/ Wednesday.
> 
> * IMPACTS...Extreme heat will significantly increase the
> potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those
> working or participating in outdoor activities.
> 
> PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
> 
> Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
> of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
> children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
> under any circumstances.
> 
> Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
> possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
> evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
> stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
> possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
> Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
> rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
> overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
> Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.


That heat warning also extends south into the Arizona deserts. Including the Phoenix area. Yesterday, they closed the mountain hiking trails during the hottest part of the day. Otherwise, firefighters would've had to rescue unprepared hikers in the extreme heat.


----------



## Open Book

progmatist said:


> During the Korean war, the heat was a major problem for US and other soldiers in the UN force. The Korean peninsula is just across the sea of Japan from Japan.


That's interesting, one of my favorite authors is Chaim Potok. He wrote a couple of novels dealing with the Korean War, in which he served as a chaplain. He writes about the terrible cold of the winters there and how hard it was for new soldiers to get used to. I guess it is a land of extremes.


----------



## Luchesi

Open Book said:


> That's interesting, one of my favorite authors is Chaim Potok. He wrote a couple of novels dealing with the Korean War, in which he served as a chaplain. He writes about the terrible cold of the winters there and how hard it was for new soldiers to get used to. I guess it is a land of extremes.


Yes, it's up there where the air masses overtake the rotation of the planet by degrees, and the consequence is more frequent extremes.


----------



## atsizat

Highest temperature in my city has been 39.7 degrees this summer but heat index went over 40.


----------



## progmatist

We have a new phenomenon here in the desert southwest. In the past few years, we have days in a row of severe thunderstorms. In the past, a severe t-storm would wring out the atmosphere like water from a sponge. The next day, the atmosphere would be too stable to support t-storm activity. Just last night and Sunday night, we were hit with 2 severe storms in a row.


----------



## Flamme

Rain Did Come.


----------



## progmatist

While Lake Mead has hit an historic low, they've had to start releasing water from the reservoirs closer the the Phoenix area. The normally dry Salt River bed running through town is currently flowing.


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

The sun always shines when school starts mid August


----------



## Flamme

A pleasanrt summer as opposite to ''burn in hell'' one...


----------



## starthrower

Effects of the southeastern tropical storms are making our central New York August a rainy, muggy, unpleasant affair. I'm looking forward to September.


----------



## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> Effects of the southeastern tropical storms are making our central New York August a rainy, muggy, unpleasant affair. I'm looking forward to September.


Ah yes, September is coming..
It could be the makings of a new religion, but at least - this might be an easy way to memorize these directions.

In the middle of our summer night here in the northern hemisphere we're looking at the center of our galaxy. 30 million of our sun-sized stars have been sucked in and crashed together in that black hole.
Hot stuff, and our summers are hot.

In the middle of our autumn night we're looking at our sister galaxy, twice as big as ours, but much younger.
It's nice to have a sister galaxy. Autumn gives us nice weather.

In the middle of our winter night we're looking outward from our spiral galaxy.
Winters are cold. So is the space in that direction (compared to other directions).

In the middle of our spring nights were looking at our local supercluster -where most of the nearby aliens civilizations reside.
The weather starts getting warm again. Hopefully we're not visited by overheated aliens.


----------



## joen_cph

Experts now expect that here in Denmark, the average temperature will rise no less than 3.5 degrees C towards the year 2100, due to climate change.


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Experts now expect that here in Denmark, the average temperature will rise no less than 3.5 degrees C towards the year 2100, due to climate change.


Convert the 3.5 degrees into the increased available energy up through the atmospheric profile to 12,000 meters.

Here in the desert we often have daily temperature swings of 15 degrees celsius, and nothing bad happens. heh I get this from AGW deniers.


----------



## starthrower

> Ah yes, September is coming..
> It could be the makings of a new religion


Traditionally it brings some of the most pleasant weather of the year to these parts. Temps in the 70s and dry air.


----------



## Flamme

The air is so ''vibrant'' and full of smoke, makes you wonder is anything you see is real or just a passing of a dream...


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> Convert the 3.5 degrees into the increased available energy up through the atmospheric profile to 12,000 meters.
> 
> Here in the desert we often have daily temperature swings of 15 degrees celsius, and nothing bad happens. heh I get this from AGW deniers.


I'm not quite sure what you mean. Maybe it's that you think it's a nothingburger, to keep the US associations.


----------



## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> Traditionally it brings some of the most pleasant weather of the year to these parts. Temps in the 70s and dry air.


We might forget that autumn lasts until the December solstice.
Every autumn when Scorpio rises (stings the Sun), the Sun begins the Fall toward the solstice, which is the inspiration for the story of the Judas 'kiss' beginning Jesus' fall into death. On the winter solstice in northern regions where the Christmas pageantry began, the Sun stays below the horizon for 3 days, until about the 25th of December when it rises again.


----------



## Flamme

joen_cph said:


> I'm not quite sure what you mean. Maybe it's that you think it's a nothingburger, to keep the US associations.


I often struggle with his posts as well...


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> I'm not quite sure what you mean. Maybe it's that you think it's a nothingburger, to keep the US associations.


On the contrary, I meant to say it's a triple burger.

https://mcdonalds.co.nz/menu/triple-cheeseburger


----------



## joen_cph

Thank you, a gigantic tripleburger in the sky, that would be nightmarish.


----------



## starthrower

Super hot here in central NY today. I feel inspired to listen to a famous live Neil Diamond album tonight. But I don't own a copy!


----------



## atsizat

Weather is going quite bad here. This week, temperatures are 36 or 35 degrees in NON-american system, which means too hot.


----------



## Flamme

joen_cph said:


> Thank you, a gigantic tripleburger in the sky, that would be nightmarish.


As long as its not a pie...In the sky...Its ok...
The rain fell and darkened the skies for 2 days...Its actually kinda nice not to be under scorching sun rays.


----------



## starthrower

Thinking about those poor folks stuck in Louisiana and Mississippi. Hurricane Ida looks like a monster. I went out early and filled up my gas tank because I expect the prices to skyrocket after this storm wipes out New Orleans. That's what happened 16 years ago after Katrina.


----------



## Flamme

Its raining the whole day. I dont mind.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Luchesi said:


> On the contrary, I meant to say it's a triple burger.
> 
> https://mcdonalds.co.nz/menu/triple-cheeseburger


I've just put on three pounds simply looking at that...


----------



## Luchesi

elgars ghost said:


> I've just put on three pounds simply looking at that...


It's not the meat that's dangerous over time. It's the toxins created by the microbes to defend themselves against other microbes in the animal - that your body struggles to identify and eliminate. Eat meat no more than once a day so that there's time to flush out toxins before there's bad effects.


----------



## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> Thinking about those poor folks stuck in Louisiana and Mississippi. Hurricane Ida looks like a monster. I went out early and filled up my gas tank because I expect the prices to skyrocket after this storm wipes out New Orleans. That's what happened 16 years ago after Katrina.


A family is hurrying to evacuate. They throw everything into the car, including the family dog. They go back to gather more items and the dog has locked them out!


----------



## Ingélou

It's shocking to read the news about flash flooding in New York, with loss of life. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news


----------



## Flamme

Got colder but maybe I will swim a bit later...


----------



## eljr

Ingélou said:


> It's shocking to read the news about flash flooding in New York, with loss of life.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news


Indeed, we are simply not accustomed to weather being more than a mere inconvenience.


----------



## Malx

I hope all you guys in the US are safe and sound after the horrific weather thrown at you'all in the last few days.
Stay safe.


----------



## Luchesi

eljr said:


> Indeed, we are simply not accustomed to weather being more than a mere inconvenience.


People seem to think that they can drive through water. I lived near NYC for 20 years, we were never aware of such a danger.

I think a video of what happens (and how fast) should be shown in Driver's Ed.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> People seem to think that they can drive through water. I lived near NYC for 20 years, we were never aware of such a danger.
> 
> I think a video of what happens (and how fast) should be shown in Driver's Ed.


Here in AZ, we have a "stupid motorist" law. Anyone driving around barricades, into a flooded wash must pay for their own rescue.


----------



## Luchesi

The numerical models are forecasting autumn to begin on the 23rd. This will be when the global pattern first looks like autumn. They predict active autumn weather as far south as Colorado and North Carolina ...but that is most probably off by a few hundred miles, in both locations. But anyway, the forecast of the seasonal change is what's impressive (considering that models have no general data about autumns like humans do). The models just solve the equations of state.


----------



## Luchesi

The models can now 'see' into October. The first week surprised me as being quite warm for the continental US.

added;
Europe will be hit with storm after storm. I think it's typical.


----------



## Luchesi

Anyone want to hear about the end of the warm season (in the US)? The 9th of October the first significant cold front will be crossing the Canadian border, down through the leeside of the Rockies and the Midwest.


----------



## Flamme

Dark grey-ish...A perfect time for zombie movies.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Anyone want to hear about the end of the warm season (in the US)? The 9th of October the first significant cold front will be crossing the Canadian border, down through the leeside of the Rockies and the Midwest.


It's typically the end of October when we get our "Chamber of Commerce" weather.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> Anyone want to hear about the end of the warm season (in the US)? The 9th of October the first significant cold front will be crossing the Canadian border, down through the leeside of the Rockies and the Midwest.


Sounds typical of anything Canadian, heading south when it's cold. But this time the cold front may face border-crossing issues ...


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> It's typically the end of October when we get our "Chamber of Commerce" weather.


Yes, we envy you until about the end of April.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Sounds typical of anything Canadian, heading south when it's cold. But this time the cold front may face border-crossing issues ...


 The pandemic police can't stop this border jumper! If our sun was a more variable star it could stop it. That would be an interesting calculation. The sun would have to be as warming to Northern Canada as it was back in early September. 
As usual, a wave embedded in a larger wave will cause this. This will sound surreal to a person who isn't familiar with this phenomenon, but I traced the wave back to the Taz River in western Siberia. The models calculate that in the next two days that wave will collide with the larger wave to its east. Then the larger wave will calve off a small wave which will grow and advect across the Pacific - to form the front that will be invading the US. 
As you can imagine, many things will mess with this prognosis. Already the trajectory has been corrected so that now the cold air is expected to hit Toronto instead of Des Moines. It could very well be reversed back again as newer and better data comes in. 
It's not that cold. You hardy souls up there will hardly notice it.


----------



## progmatist

Arizona fall colors.......


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> The pandemic police can't stop this border jumper! If our sun was a more variable star it could stop it. That would be an interesting calculation. The sun would have to be as warming to Northern Canada as it was back in early September.
> As usual, a wave embedded in a larger wave will cause this. This will sound surreal to a person who isn't familiar with this phenomenon, but I traced the wave back to the Taz River in western Siberia. The models calculate that in the next two days that wave will collide with the larger wave to its east. Then the larger wave will calve off a small wave which will grow and advect across the Pacific - to form the front that will be invading the US.
> As you can imagine, many things will mess with this prognosis. Already the trajectory has been corrected so that now the cold air is expected to hit Toronto instead of Des Moines. It could very well be reversed back again as newer and better data comes in.
> It's not that cold. You hardy souls up there will hardly notice it.


I probably shouldn't joke about the weather and border-crossing -- someone out there might make a false conspiracy theory out of it. It's too bad people are so attracted to the the bizarre and freakish, when knowledge of real and explainable phenomena is more accessible than ever before.

It will be interesting to see what happens from October 9 on. And being able to forecast two weeks ahead based on modelling and high-atmosphere waves is pretty remarkable.


----------



## progmatist

US media has reported the historically low levels of Lake Mead. What the BBC reported, which US media did not was that's partially due to the US releasing more water into the Colorado, so some ends up in Mexico. The past few years, the Colorado River has been completely dry south of the border. After we in the US hogged all the water.


----------



## pianozach

Here in the northernmost section of Southern California it's been Summer up until this week, when it turned to fall, with overcast mornings, occasionally foggy, which clears up in the afternoons.

Today we had a front move in after the damp cold morning, with some blustery hot winds, and we're currently at 91°F. at 2:30 in the afternoon.


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> Here in the northernmost section of Southern California it's been Summer up until this week, when it turned to fall, with overcast mornings, occasionally foggy, which clears up in the afternoons.
> 
> Today we had a front move in after the damp cold morning, with some blustery hot winds, and we're currently at 91°F. at 2:30 in the afternoon.


Just to exemplify: It will be 57°F at 7AM, and by Noon or so it's 91°F. (14°C to 32°C).

This is because, aside from the coastline, a great deal of the climate is officially a "chaparral", just one step down from "desert".


----------



## progmatist

pianozach said:


> Just to exemplify: It will be 57°F at 7AM, and by Noon or so it's 91°F. (14°C to 32°C).
> 
> This is because, aside from the coastline, a great deal of the climate is officially a "chaparral", just one step down from "desert".


I was stationed in the San Joaquin Valley while in the Navy. A typical summer day would start out so cold I'd have to wear a jacket. Then soar to the mid 100s in the afternoon.


----------



## Roger Knox

On the Atlantic side I've been following the very powerful Hurricane Sam, which looked threatening but never made a landfall and has now been downgraded to a Category 2 storm. It's not expected to hit the coast of Newfoundland, but according to the Weather Network "the edges of the storm will be close enough to bring dangerous swells and breezy winds to parts of the island." Fisher people beware!


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> On the Atlantic side I've been following the very powerful Hurricane Sam, which looked threatening but never made a landfall and has now been downgraded to a Category 2 storm. It's not expected to hit the coast of Newfoundland, but according to the Weather Network "the edges of the storm will be close enough to bring dangerous swells and breezy winds to parts of the island." Fisher people beware!


Yes, any guesses why it didn't slam ashore? 
This time of the year the sun's energy is weak enough to allow the winter vortices to fall southward. A large one this time saved those people a lot of drudgery and damages.

BUT the culprit has to move into the SE quadrant of cold core low (vortex), because the jetstream runs along south of a mature wave and pushes mass to the east. Otherwise, as with Hurricane Sandy, that vortex back then accelerated it right into the NYC area!, because that wave was a young one and the hurricane entered its influence too far to the north, where the max wind is flowing to the northwest. Sounds complicated, you'd have to see the charts.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> Yes, any guesses why it didn't slam ashore?
> This time of the year the sun's energy is weak enough to allow the winter vortices to fall southward. A large one this time saved those people a lot of drudgery and damages.
> 
> BUT the culprit has to move into the SE quadrant of cold core low (vortex), because the jetstream runs along south of a mature wave and pushes mass to the east. Otherwise, as with Hurricane Sandy, that vortex back then accelerated it right into the NYC area!, because that wave was a young one and the hurricane entered its influence too far to the north, where the max wind is flowing to the northwest. Sounds complicated, you'd have to see the charts.


I think you've explained it pretty well, with reference to the cold core low. Sam moved into the southeast quadrant whereas Sandy moved in earlier on and farther north and got hurled back to the coast by the vortex's northwest wind. It is true that vortices leave my head spinning. From my long-ago high-school physics-- would it be vectors that represent the direction and force of their winds?


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> I think you've explained it pretty well, with reference to the cold core low. Sam moved into the southeast quadrant whereas Sandy moved in earlier on and farther north and got hurled back to the coast by the vortex's northwest wind. It is true that vortices leave my head spinning. From my long-ago high-school physics-- would it be vectors that represent the direction and force of their winds?


The wave that accelerated Sandy was early in its lifecycle. Forecasters knew that it would intensify (how much?) and its speed/path would change (how much?) as it matured. The various models disagreed with each other. You might remember that the forecasters had a difficult time. And they were criticized afterward.

Vectors, yes. The planet rotates counterclockwise, looking down (Polaris is up). So, any air parcel moving with a counterclockwise trajectory will acquire some of that rotational energy and rise (bad weather). Conversely, if the parcel moves with a clockwise curvature (against the planet) it will lose energy and fall (good weather).


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> The wave that accelerated Sandy was early in its lifecycle. Forecasters knew that it would intensify (how much?) and its speed/path would change (how much?) as it matured. The various models disagreed with each other. You might remember that the forecasters had a difficult time. And they were criticized afterward.


Thanks. I learned from growing up in a meteorologist's family that extreme weather events can be difficult to forecast. Everyone wants the forecasters to "get it right" but what does that mean? "Right?" -- what, when, where, how much, for whom? -- with the time pressure of a rapidly changing situation? If I understand it correctly (something I've learned never to assume), these outlier events are different each time -- and the after-the-fact criticism can be harsh.


----------



## Dan Ante

I have noticed that for the last 2 – 3 months the local forecast for the small town that I live in has gone from 90% spot on to 90% completely wrong, is some change (global warming) making forecasting much more hit and miss?


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Thanks. I learned from growing up in a meteorologist's family that extreme weather events can be difficult to forecast. Everyone wants the forecasters to "get it right" but what does that mean? "Right?" -- what, when, where, how much, for whom? -- with the time pressure of a rapidly changing situation? If I understand it correctly (something I've learned never to assume), these outlier events are different each time -- and the after-the-fact criticism can be harsh.


 Yes, you can imagine all the configurations, high vs low systems, positions and intensities due to all the various factors, and the different stages of life cycle. How they all fit together differently results in a very high number of interesting active weather situations.


----------



## Luchesi

Dan Ante said:


> I have noticed that for the last 2 - 3 months the local forecast for the small town that I live in has gone from 90% spot on to 90% completely wrong, is some change (global warming) making forecasting much more hit and miss?


I would have to know if it's rain or wind or temperature that they got so wrong.


----------



## progmatist

Yesterday we had tornado warnings in AZ. We rarely have tornadic thunderstorms. We rarely have severe thunderstorms on October 5th. Both combined is as common as a unicorn playing in a snow drift, in Phoenix, in July.


----------



## Dan Ante

Luchesi said:


> I would have to know if it's rain or wind or temperature that they got so wrong.


Mostly the rain content eg this morning extremely heavy rain from approx 7am to 9am then fine,.
From 1:30pm approx cloudy with one short shower, see attached forecast for today.


----------



## Luchesi

Dan Ante said:


> Mostly the rain content eg this morning extremely heavy rain from approx 7am to 9am then fine,.
> From 1:30pm approx cloudy with one short shower, see attached forecast for today.
> 
> View attachment 159901


This is a good example of one of the many situations which will require future improvement, if it's scientifically feasible. Because who knows how much the public will want to pay for better data and a tighter data grid. It's definitely a situation of diminishing returns and this has been known in the field for a long time.
A lot can be written about this situation, but I can share a few of the concepts.

You're being hit by small lows released by the major planetary wave far to the south. Typical.
As the lows are migrating slightly northward they lose some energy, and their surface reflections (surface weather) develop dry slots (because of less lifting energy). There's many local effects complicating the weak rain shield pattern. The moisture that was in the dry slots gets plowed into bands of heavier rain (10 to 40 miles wide). (This is exasperating when trying to forecast snow depths.) Depending upon the overall speed of the system - weather conditions will change rapidly. A friend five or 10 miles away will say it was a great forecast. haha

Surface systems with more upper air support are easier to forecast.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Yesterday we had tornado warnings in AZ. We rarely have tornadic thunderstorms. We rarely have severe thunderstorms on October 5th. Both combined is as common as a unicorn playing in a snow drift, in Phoenix, in July.


Yes, because of the cold Pacific current and the shape of the North American continent your area rarely gets enough rotational energy for tornadoes (during the flow patterns when there's enough moisture available).


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## Flamme

Got a lot colder and raining.


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## Luchesi

The models say that not until 4 Nov will 10F / -12C reach the northern border of Manitoba. That seems late to me. Global warming?
It will then be pushed back north for a while.


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## atsizat

Luchesi said:


> The models say that not until 4 Nov will 10F / -12C reach the northern border of Manitoba. That seems late to me. Global warming?
> It will then be pushed back north for a while.


Do you live in Canada?


----------



## Luchesi

atsizat said:


> Do you live in Canada?


No, I'm near the Mexican border. We officially protect the US from Central America and South America.


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## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> No, I'm near the Mexican border. We officially protect the US from Central America and South America.


Living near the US/Mexico border as I do, that humor is particularly poignant to me. BTW: my apologies for stealing the Jets from Winnipeg some years ago. But what goes around comes around. The current Coyotes owner is threatening to pull the team out of Arizona if we don't build him yet another arena. We just built the team their very own arena not much more than a decade ago. They previously shared the Suns' arena.


----------



## joen_cph

Luchesi said:


> No, I'm near the Mexican border. We officially protect the US from Central America and South America.


Hopefully we're not disturbing you ...


----------



## Luchesi

joen_cph said:


> Hopefully we're not disturbing you ...


Everything disturbs us, but we're restrained.


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Living near the US/Mexico border as I do, that humor is particularly poignant to me. BTW: my apologies for stealing the Jets from Winnipeg some years ago. But what goes around comes around. The current Coyotes owner is threatening to pull the team out of Arizona if we don't build him yet another arena. We just built the team their very own arena not much more than a decade ago. They previously shared the Suns' arena.


Back when I had favorite teams, we knew the guys were from our city and surrounding area. Now it's gotten so uninteresting. Why name the teams when the names have lost the local connections?


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## progmatist

The lowest pressure ever recorded has been measured in the Pacific, off the Pacific Northwest Coast. Caused by the "Bomb Cyclone" currently in the area. Yeah, nothing unusual about the weather.


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## Luchesi

"The seasonal time change will occur on Sunday, Nov. 7.

At 2 a.m. local time, the time instantly changes to 1 a.m. and people "gain" an extra hour of time. The practice only changes our daily schedules, *not when the sun actually rises or sets*."

I googled DST and I'm wondering what that bold part means..


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> The lowest pressure ever recorded has been measured in the Pacific, off the Pacific Northwest Coast. Caused by the "Bomb Cyclone" currently in the area. Yeah, nothing unusual about the weather.


Yes, that's a monster. It beat the record by a tiny bit.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> "The seasonal time change will occur on Sunday, Nov. 7.
> 
> At 2 a.m. local time, the time instantly changes to 1 a.m. and people "gain" an extra hour of time. The practice only changes our daily schedules, *not when the sun actually rises or sets*."
> 
> I googled DST and I'm wondering what that bold part means..


We don't have to worry about that here in AZ. We don't observe DST, with the exception of the Navajo Nation. But that's only because the Nation spans into New Mexico and Utah. They want the same time observed across the entire nation.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> The lowest pressure ever recorded has been measured in the Pacific, off the Pacific Northwest Coast. Caused by the "Bomb Cyclone" currently in the area. Yeah, nothing unusual about the weather.


About 940mb (and 12ft waves) compared to 655mb and calm here this morning. This was somewhat confusing to the early scientists.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> The practice only changes our daily schedules, *not when the sun actually rises or sets*."
> I googled DST and I'm wondering what that bold part means..


Guess it's to reassure people who think secret elites control the motion of the sun, above and below the flat earth ...


----------



## progmatist

Roger Knox said:


> Guess it's to reassure people who think secret elites control the motion of the sun, above and below the flat earth ...


What? The Earth isn't flat?


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> What? The Earth isn't flat?


It looks flat from my cave.


----------



## Dan Ante

Luchesi said:


> It looks flat from my cave.


*Of course its ruddy flat, any one with eyes can see that, you know all these conspiracy theories are an attempt by aliens to youserp the human rac**e… *


----------



## Roger Knox

Dan Ante said:


> *Of course its ruddy flat, any one with eyes can see that, you know all these conspiracy theories are an attempt by aliens to youserp the human rac**e… *


Yes, and everyone knows that you New Zealanders walk upside-down and see completely different stuff on your side of the plate than we do on ours.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Yes, and everyone knows that you New Zealanders walk upside-down and see completely different stuff on your side of the plate than we do on ours.


Yes, their weather systems actually run backwards! That is if the Galaxy rotates clockwise (that would confirm that Polaris is the up direction).


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Yes, their weather systems actually run backwards! That is if the Galaxy rotates clockwise (that would confirm that Polaris is the up direction).


That's assuming we're looking at the Earth right-side-up. The South Pole could actually be the top of the world. The bulk of the land mass may have ended up in the Northern Hemisphere because it fell down when Pangaea separated.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> That's assuming we're looking at the Earth right-side-up. The South Pole could actually be the top of the world. The bulk of the land mass may have ended up in the Northern Hemisphere because it fell down when Pangaea separated.


I worked for a while at Learmonth Observatory in Western Australia and the weather guys there told me that they liked their cyclones spinning clockwise. I can understand that. heh


----------



## Roger Knox

I miss the Australians on TalkClassical. Eddie (R.U. Kidding) Varese used to feed me good set-up lines on Ideas for Stupid Threads. I guess his take on the world was spinning opposite to mine, making the results stupid ...


----------



## pianozach

Here in northern Southern California it was Summer up until last week, when it suddenly turned to Winter.

For a few days.

Now it's Summer again.


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## progmatist

I've been a weather geek for decades. I never heard of a "bomb cyclone" until a year or two ago. Now they're as regular as a heat wave.


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## pianozach

progmatist said:


> I've been a weather geek for decades. I never heard of a "bomb cyclone" until a year or two ago. Now they're as regular as a heat wave.


It would actually now be practical to merge the topics of WEATHER and CLIMATE CHANGE.


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## Luchesi

The numerical models say that Thanksgiving Day will be fair and very mild across the southern US.


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## Roger Knox

There's been a very bad weather situation in the province where I used to live, British Columbia. Multiple areas of severe flooding, including mudslides on both sides of Highway 7 that parallels the Fraser River, to the east of Vancouver. In the latter case, a large helicopter operation had to be mounted to rescue drivers trapped in their cars by the mudslides. Fortunately it was a success.

An article in today's _Toronto Star_ describes a phenomenon called "atmospheric rivers" in which clouds of water vapour originating in tropical or sub-tropical regions track northwards into the USA and Canada along the lines of mountain ranges, and become concentrated into downpours as has happened in Washington State and western Alberta as well as British Columbia. One of the worst places hit is Merritt, B.C., which only a few months ago was devastated by forest fires that removed the tree cover and stabilization. In this denuded state torrential rains have now created a sea of water and mud. The whole city has been evacuated. Other places affected include Lytton, B.C. of recent forest-fire notoriety, and Princeton, B.C. located in a beautiful provincial park.

Both the forest fires and the atmospheric rivers are attributed to global warming.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/weather/abbotsford-northwest-storm-records-climate/index.html


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## starthrower

This just in! The weather where I am will suck big time until next April. It's been the same for the past 57 years since I've lived here. Before that I was too young to remember.


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## atsizat

Full Cloudy. Looks as if it were gonna rain any munite. But it is not rainning.

That kind of weather.

Temp is 10.6 degrees in metric system.


----------



## progmatist

Roger Knox said:


> There's been a very bad weather situation in the province where I used to live, British Columbia. Multiple areas of severe flooding, including mudslides on both sides of Highway 7 that parallels the Fraser River, to the east of Vancouver. In the latter case, a large helicopter operation had to be mounted to rescue drivers trapped in their cars by the mudslides. Fortunately it was a success.
> 
> An article in today's _Toronto Star_ describes a phenomenon called "atmospheric rivers" in which clouds of water vapour originating in tropical or sub-tropical regions track northwards into the USA and Canada along the lines of mountain ranges, and become concentrated into downpours as has happened in Washington State and western Alberta as well as British Columbia. One of the worst places hit is Merritt, B.C., which only a few months ago was devastated by forest fires that removed the tree cover and stabilization. In this denuded state torrential rains have now created a sea of water and mud. The whole city has been evacuated. Other places affected include Lytton, B.C. of recent forest-fire notoriety, and Princeton, B.C. located in a beautiful provincial park.
> 
> Both the forest fires and the atmospheric rivers are attributed to global warming.
> 
> https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/weather/abbotsford-northwest-storm-records-climate/index.html


The seasonal forecast calls for drier than normal through most of the US. With the exception of of the Pacific Northwest. Namely Washington State, North to British Columbia.



atsizat said:


> Full Cloudy. Looks as if it were gonna rain any munite. But it is not rainning.
> 
> That kind of weather.
> 
> Temp is 10.6 degrees in metric system.


Celsius/Centigrade isn't so much metric. It's based on 0 being the freezing point of water, and 100 being the boiling point of water at sea level. That's far more logical than Fahrenheit, in which +32 is the freezing point.


----------



## Roger Knox

*British Columbia Weather Emergency*

A state of emergency has been declared in British Columbia. Severe flooding and mudslides have damaged bridges and cut off roads and railways going eastward into Alberta. All land transportation to eastern Canada is being routed through the USA where possible. In the agriculturally-rich Fraser River Valley thousands of farm animals have died while floodwaters remain at the the height of rooftops. Canadian Armed Forces were called in to help people move to safety.

Couple of corrections to my previous post re "atmospheric rivers," a term which is new to me but apparently we all need to know. They are narrow _channels_, not clouds, of water vapour. They form in tropical and sub-tropical areas, but over _sea_ (e.g. off of Hawaii) not over land. Water concentration builds producing massive amounts of rain and high winds.


----------



## Luchesi

I assume that Daniel Fahrenheit could only indirectly measure the temperature of boiling water. I think he used our body temperature for 100° and the coldest he could grab from nature would have been freezing sea water (0° F.).


----------



## pianozach

Going to an outdoor wedding today, about 45 miles away.

The high today will be 70°F today at around. The wedding starts at 5PM, which is about 15 minutes after sunset, at which point it will already have cooled off to about 64°. It may be 62° by the time the wedding is over.

I'll be wearing an old Patagonia long sleeved polypro undershirt underneath my semi-formal suit.


----------



## progmatist

pianozach said:


> Going to an outdoor wedding today, about 45 miles away.
> 
> The high today will be 70°F today at around. The wedding starts at 5PM, which is about 15 minutes after sunset, at which point it will already have cooled off to about 64°. It may be 62° by the time the wedding is over.
> 
> I'll be wearing an old Patagonia long sleeved polypro undershirt underneath my semi-formal suit.


Here in the Phoenix area, when it gets to be around 64, everyone who lives here bundles up. Meanwhile, the "snowbirds" are running around in shorts and sandals.


----------



## Roger Knox

progmatist said:


> Meanwhile, the "snowbirds" are running around in shorts and sandals.


They annoy you too?


----------



## progmatist

Roger Knox said:


> They annoy you too?


Especially when they drive 35 in a 55mph zone.


----------



## Roger Knox

progmatist said:


> Especially when they drive 35 in a 55mph zone.


... and complain that everyone else is speeding


----------



## TxllxT

*White Christmas ?*

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-snow-forecast-met-office-b1963351.html

The British Met Office expects artic cold to set in the coming weeks with lots of snow, just like in 2010. Other forecasters mention the winter of 1962.


----------



## progmatist

Roger Knox said:


> ... and complain that everyone else is speeding


Incidentally: around this time of year, we start seeing many Ontario license plates.


----------



## starthrower

Devasting tornado ripped through the southwest Kentucky town of Mayfield last night.


----------



## progmatist

starthrower said:


> Devasting tornado ripped through the southwest Kentucky town of Mayfield last night.


It just happens to be the longest tornado track in recorded history, devastating a half dozen states.


----------



## Dan Ante

starthrower said:


> Devasting tornado ripped through the southwest Kentucky town of Mayfield last night.


*
Does insurance cover "Acts of God"*


----------



## Flamme

Its raining, raining and snowing...The public transport and transport in general is in collapse...Good thing I have my bike.


----------



## Roger Knox

Flamme said:


> Its raining, raining and snowing...The public transport and transport in general is in collapse...Good thing I have my bike.


Biking in the snow ... that's got me concerned.


----------



## progmatist

Roger Knox said:


> Biking in the snow ... that's got me concerned.


Those newer bikes with the huge, fat tires actually do very well in the snow.


----------



## Ingélou

It's been really murky and dull here in Yorkshire for the past three days. Depressing...


----------



## composingmusic

Currently around -10ºC here in Helsinki, and it was lightly snowing earlier.


----------



## Rogerx

On the thermometer 14 Celsius. Dec 21th?


----------



## Luchesi

Rogerx said:


> On the thermometer 14 Celsius. Dec 21th?


You're under what we call a warm tongue ahead of a major system. It sounds cute, but it's just one of those accidental naming outcomes.


----------



## progmatist

Rogerx said:


> On the thermometer 14 Celsius. Dec 21th?


Never mind that, a massive wildfire in the Denver area at the end of December?!? I have relatives there...much too close to home.


----------



## Malx

11c - 11.00pm 31st Dec in Scotland


----------



## Rogerx

16 Celsius this day, feels like spring.


----------



## starthrower

Malx said:


> 11c - 11.00pm 31st Dec in Scotland


The same here in central New York. We've had only a few inches of snow so far and there's none on the ground right now.


----------



## progmatist

starthrower said:


> The same here in central New York. We've had only a few inches of snow so far and there's none on the ground right now.


Isn't Syracuse one of the snowiest cities in the US, directly downwind from Lake Erie?


----------



## starthrower

progmatist said:


> Isn't Syracuse one of the snowiest cities in the US, directly downwind from Lake Erie?


Yeah, but it's 30 miles from Lake Ontario. It hasn't been very snowy for the past 5 years. But we still have gloomy, sun deprived winters.


----------



## Luchesi

The numbers from today's worldwide collectors forecasted (at 12Z) that northern Mississippi will be 10F by 11 January,

and on the same day Toronto will be finally getting it from the eastward push of this system, down to -10 F. I think that's an interesting picture.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> and on the same day Toronto will be finally getting it from the eastward push of this system, down to -10 F. I think that's an interesting picture.


Yes we had snow and colder weather. Too bad the cold doesn't kill the you-know-what. Hoping for better things in 2022.


----------



## Flamme

Roger Knox said:


> Biking in the snow ... that's got me concerned.


Must avoid it at least when there is : 1. Wet snow and 2.Ice. In wet snow my steel parts and chain caught some rust and in black ice and icy surface I could fall and fall badly...I sprayed my chains and other parts with some lithium containing spray which made sort of isolation towards humidity and dirt...The weather is very cold and inhospitable, I spend my free days in house 24/7...Its like 15 under zero in Celsius.


----------



## Luchesi

Flamme said:


> Must avoid it at least when there is : 1. Wet snow and 2.Ice. In wet snow my steel parts and chain caught some rust and in black ice and icy surface I could fall and fall badly...I sprayed my chains and other parts with some lithium containing spray which made sort of isolation towards humidity and dirt...The weather is very cold and inhospitable, I spend my free days in house 24/7...Its like 15 under zero in Celsius.


The polar regions are getting warmer faster than other regions. It's the long periods of darkness that results in the air getting colder and colder until the sun returns. Polar outbreaks in the future should be slightly warmer. 
With the planet's large systems becoming more energetic, will they push the cold air faster so that little relief will be felt by humans? It's an interesting puzzle in dynamics.

So, some experts expect that snow will only accumulate father to the north than it does now. Other experts expect that there will be a little change in the southern extent of snow, except that snow will melt sooner.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> The polar regions are getting warmer faster than other regions. It's the long periods of darkness that results in the air getting colder and colder until the sun returns. Polar outbreaks in the future should be slightly warmer.
> With the planet's large systems becoming more energetic, will they push the cold air faster so that little relief will be felt by humans? It's an interesting puzzle in dynamics.
> 
> So, some experts expect that snow will only accumulate father to the north than it does now. Other experts expect that there will be a little change in the southern extent of snow, except that snow will melt sooner.


Also the polar jet stream is weakening, allowing polar vortices to dip south. Like what happened in Texas about a year ago.


----------



## Luchesi

I haven't seen a pattern that surprises me this year yet, but by Wednesday I think we will have a very unusual pattern over North America. A large symmetrical wave pattern that only occurs by chance once or twice a cold season.


----------



## Luchesi

Thursday the 17th looks like the first chance of tornadoes in the tornado alley of Texas/Oklahoma. It's quite cool though, and the max vorticity is colliding slightly east of position of the required heat and humidity discontinuities. IOW, it's too early (unless things accelerate with a rapid warming from Mexico. Last year, Mexico's geographical shape and the intensified pumping from the Gulf of Mexico was a bigger factor than it had been in the past. We'll see if that continues. Hints of climate change.).


----------



## eljr

Beautiful here in the Hudson Valley today. 

A light snow rests everywhere and the sun just peeked from behind the clouds to say goodbye for the day as it sets.


----------



## Luchesi

eljr said:


> Beautiful here in the Hudson Valley today.
> 
> A light snow rests everywhere and the sun just peeked from behind the clouds to say goodbye for the day as it sets.


If we look closely at sunset we can see the Earth rotate very fast towards us (at 900 km/hr). You need adequate eye protection.


----------



## eljr

Luchesi said:


> If we look closely at sunset we can see the Earth rotate very fast towards us (at 900 km/hr). You need adequate eye protection.


and the desire to make science of a beautiful repose... I have none


----------



## pianozach

Saturday was Spring
Sunday was Summer
Today is Autumn
Tomorrow will be Winter.

It's nice to have it spread out over four days, instead of the usual two seasons per day.


----------



## Luchesi

eljr said:


> and the desire to make science of a beautiful repose... I have none


Art and science are perceptions of the same thing, the same reality.


----------



## progmatist

pianozach said:


> Saturday was Spring
> Sunday was Summer
> Today is Autumn
> Tomorrow will be Winter.
> 
> It's nice to have it spread out over four days, instead of the usual two seasons per day.


And we in AZ are a day or two behind you, weatherwise. At least this time of year when we receive a zonal flow off the Pacific. In the summer monsoon, that reverses itself.


----------



## Luchesi

The next system hitting Phoenix, next Monday afternoon, looks like it will cause people to be saying, "Hmmm.. this is unusual."


----------



## starthrower

Deep freeze today with a high of 15 degrees farenheit. Should be spring like by Thursday with a rainy 55 degrees and back to winter on Friday with temps in the mid 20s. Is it any wonder why I carry two extra coats of different styles in my car?


----------



## Ingélou

Two storms - Dudley and Eunice - are apparently going to batter the UK, especially Scotland and the North of England. I do hope they don't cause very much damage, cause power cuts, or hurt people.


----------



## Kjetil Heggelund

Just around freezing here, but lots of heavy snow. Shoveled before I went to bed last night and when I got home from work today. It will snow for 12 hours from 9 pm they said...Gahhh! No more room for snow. I want to be free!!!


----------



## Ingélou

Kjetil Heggelund said:


> Just around freezing here, but lots of heavy snow. Shoveled before I went to bed last night and when I got home from work today. It will snow for 12 hours from 9 pm they said...Gahhh! No more room for snow. I want to be free!!!


:tiphat:
That's it, isn't it? When I was a child, I loved snow and it seemed to represent freedom - the exhilaration of sledging and playing in the frosty air and the blank openness of the landscape. But when I grew up, snow meant being trapped - unable to get about - the whole world clogged up with white.

Of course, there hasn't been as much snow about since I grew up. Some winters here in the UK I saw little or none, at least when I was living in the midlands or south of England.


----------



## Art Rock

Ingélou said:


> Two storms - Dudley and Eunice - are apparently going to batter the UK, especially Scotland and the North of England. I do hope they don't cause very much damage, cause power cuts, or hurt people.


Dudley was a dud by the time it reached the Netherlands, but Eunice is pretty heavy. So far, so good at our spot, but already two people killed around Amsterdam due to trees falling on them.


----------



## eljr

Ingélou said:


> Two storms - Dudley and Eunice - are apparently going to batter the UK, especially Scotland and the North of England. I do hope they don't cause very much damage, cause power cuts, or hurt people.


I spoke with a business associate today in Belfast who immediately told of the wind storm. Here in NY it is very much the same. I was up all night investigating all the banging caused but the non abating winds.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> The next system hitting Phoenix, next Monday afternoon, looks like it will cause people to be saying, "Hmmm.. this is unusual."


"By the time it gets to Phoenix she'll be saying
Hope it's not unusual, that's not for me at all
Well I can take velocity but spare me the vorticity
And don't put scary writing on the wall."

Apologies to Glen Campbell "By the Time I get to Phoenix"


----------



## Ingélou

Art Rock said:


> Dudley was a dud by the time it reached the Netherlands, but Eunice is pretty heavy. So far, so good at our spot, but already two people killed around Amsterdam due to trees falling on them.


Today the news says three people killed in the UK and five people killed in Europe. 
In the UK, there are lots of buildings damaged and thousands of people without power.

I hope this is the last of the really bad weather. I hope the 'so far so good' has continued and that you're safe and well. :tiphat:


----------



## Art Rock

Thanks, it was scary (the last big storm a few years ago resulted in about 100 roof tiles being blown off and falling down to the side - no further damage, but we were actually at the top floor when it happened, and the noise was deafening... we were afraid the whole roof had come off), but it looks like we escaped without damage this time.


----------



## That Guy Mick

The great thing about icy roads is that it takes less throttle to peel out at stoplights. One of the problems with the all of these front wheel drives... It is harder to burn rubber. What were the engineers thinking?


----------



## Dorsetmike

Eunice was a bit breezy


----------



## progmatist

That Guy Mick said:


> The great thing about icy roads is that it takes less throttle to peel out at stoplights. One of the problems with the all of these front wheel drives... It is harder to burn rubber. What were the engineers thinking?


We have a similar problem with our light rail system. The tracks were designed for our extreme heat. When it gets particularly cold by our standards, the tracks will contract and widen the gap. The trains will skid their wheels when starting and stopping. Especially in the shade where they receive even less warming sunshine.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> "By the time it gets to Phoenix she'll be saying
> Hope it's not unusual, that's not for me at all
> Well I can take velocity but spare me the vorticity
> And don't put scary writing on the wall."
> 
> Apologies to Glen Campbell "By the Time I get to Phoenix"


Thanks. Glen really had the pipes!
Did your father ever mention that tornado outbreaks tend to be 7 days apart?

The next one is the 24th. People in a wide path from Central TX to Ohio should be thinking tornado weather.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> Thanks. Glen really had the pipes!
> Did your father ever mention that tornado outbreaks tend to be 7 days apart?
> 
> The next one is the 24th. People in a wide path from Central TX to Ohio should be thinking tornado weather.


No I didn't hear about the every 7 days phenomenon. I don't think we get as many tornados up here and I haven't heard of them in the winter. But with climate change many assumptions need to change.

Incidentally I'm reading a book about Luke Howard, the English developer of the cloud naming system. Makes me think of my Dad pointing out _cirrus_, or _cumulo-nimbus_ formations and what they suggested.

I only learned recently that Glen Campbell had great chops too and was a top session guitarist before emerging as a vocalist.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> No I didn't hear about the every 7 days phenomenon. I don't think we get as many tornados up here and I haven't heard of them in the winter. But with climate change many assumptions need to change.
> 
> Incidentally I'm reading a book about Luke Howard, the English developer of the cloud naming system. Makes me think of my Dad pointing out _cirrus_, or _cumulo-nimbus_ formations and what they suggested.
> 
> I only learned recently that Glen Campbell had great chops too and was a top session guitarist before emerging as a vocalist.


Many superstitions about weather point to some relationship in the science. Now, the 24th will be a scary one, BECAUSE the one after it is forecast to be very weak. Is this a reliable superstition? People who live there would like to know.

One lucky thing is, these storm systems are so big that their formation can be predicted long in advance. The future positions of the centers of intensity can't be reliably forecasted. What improvements will allow more accurate advice in the future? Perhaps the brute force of AI can find a predictable pattern for each weather window, in each location.

Yes, couldn't read music, "Campbell started playing guitar at age four after his father gave him a Sears-bought five-dollar guitar as a gift, with his uncle Boo teaching him the basics of how to play."


----------



## Rogerx

What a different with last week, behind the glass now, it's almost 20 Celsius in the room.


----------



## Luchesi

When longstanding high temperature records are broken, while there hasn't been a strong warming pattern in place, that's concerning to people monitoring for climate change. I think it just happened this week, but I haven't looked into the details.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> No I didn't hear about the every 7 days phenomenon.


An example - this coming Wednesday and then 7 days later. Watch the skies. 
The first storm is intensifying far out in the North Pacific at this time.


----------



## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> An example - this coming Wednesday and then 7 days later. Watch the skies.
> The first storm is intensifying far out in the North Pacific at this time.


I hope it doesn't become an atmospheric river and reach shore.


----------



## pianozach

Here in California we are expecting thunderstorms and waterspouts on Monday. Waterspouts are just offshore tornados, yes?

Quite a change from the mid-80s weather we had earlier this week.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> I hope it doesn't become an atmospheric river and reach shore.


It will. Nothing can arrest it at this stage of its life cycle. But the 'river' won't break records.


----------



## Luchesi

pianozach said:


> Here in California we are expecting thunderstorms and waterspouts on Monday. Waterspouts are just offshore tornados, yes?
> 
> Quite a change from the mid-80s weather we had earlier this week.


Yes they are, but even though this is the same system that will eventually bring death and destruction, waterspouts over the relatively cool water of the Pacific don't have the feedbacks to get very dangerous.

I've long been captivated by how very smart scientists in the past couldn't figure out how noteworthy weather events appeared and unfolded from a previously clear sky. It wasn't their fault because they weren't aware of the relevant importance of the rotational vector of the Earth and the unique properties of water molecules, but it's a very entertaining history in the UK and other locales as they tried to approach it scientifically with their human assumptions.

So this Pacific storm will rotate into position, with some of its regions moving into harmony with the Earth's rotation. This is where it all starts... and if there's enough water vapor the physics of water molecules takes over. Dry air is heavier than moist air so even without any input of more energy there's a turning over of the layers of the lower atmosphere. Energy is released within the system from the changes in state as the H2O rises and then the structures develop - and you get heavy rain and even tornadoes.


----------



## progmatist

pianozach said:


> Here in California we are expecting thunderstorms and waterspouts on Monday. Waterspouts are just offshore tornados, yes?
> 
> Quite a change from the mid-80s weather we had earlier this week.


That same storm will hit AZ on Tuesday. After we hit a daily record 96 yesterday. It should be noted however a dry 96 is nothing like a humid 96, during a heatwave east of the Rockies. A dry 96 is borderline pleasant, only slightly on the hot side.


----------



## starthrower

It's going down to15 farenheit tonight and tomorrow's high will be 21. That's rather on the cold side for this time of year. Meanwhile parts of Antarctica are 70 degrees above normal. Not good.


----------



## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> It's going down to15 farenheit tonight and tomorrow's high will be 21. That's rather on the cold side for this time of year. Meanwhile parts of Antarctica are 70 degrees above normal. Not good.


That second threat of tornadoes in my post above (#2369), the models are now saying that your area will be hit by this, with strong spring storms. If you can remember any impressive springs storms from your past, this is setting up that way 6th of April. But it's very early other than to just mention it. Seasons change faster than we might realize. Snow and ice to strong storms.


----------



## progmatist

starthrower said:


> It's going down to15 farenheit tonight and tomorrow's high will be 21. That's rather on the cold side for this time of year. Meanwhile parts of Antarctica are 70 degrees above normal. Not good.


Both the arctic and antarctic simultaneously experienced record heat during the current northern vernal, and southern autumnal equinox equilibrium.


----------



## pianozach

progmatist said:


> That same storm will hit AZ on Tuesday. After we hit a daily record 96 yesterday. It should be noted however a dry 96 is nothing like a humid 96, during a heatwave east of the Rockies. A dry 96 is borderline pleasant, only slightly on the hot side.


We had a blustery stormy morning, and a weaker wave at dusk.

A few branches came down here and there.

No tornados.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Although winter has officially just ended we are experiencing a warmish dry spell - it's been about 15 deg. C. on average for the last week. When I went to brush my teeth the other morning a queen wasp which must have been hibernating somewhere near over winter was sitting on the head of the toothbrush. Bit big for her mouth, I would have thought. Strange thing is, I experienced this very same thing last year at about the same time - I wonder if the cup in which I keep my razor, toothbrush and toothpaste looks like an ideal place for a nest? Not on my watch - I had an infestation of the vespine kind a few years ago which couldn't be dealt with as the nest was too deep in the brickwork. Unfortunately on this occasion I had to show Queenie the door to wasp heaven (or hell, more likely...)


----------



## progmatist

pianozach said:


> We had a blustery stormy morning, and a weaker wave at dusk.
> 
> A few branches came down here and there.
> 
> No tornados.


We had strong winds yesterday.......for about 15 minutes. As the cold front passed through. That's par for the course here: if you don't like the weather, wait 15 minutes.

Just to clarify, our summer heat isn't weather. It's just the way it is. We rarely have actual "weather." When we have "weather," it dominates local newscasts.


----------



## Art Rock

It's snowing. Last week we had 20 degrees, now it's close to zero (for the USA: a drop from 68 to 32 F).

I had scheduled tires change (winter to summer tires) this afternoon, but I'm glad I cancelled it yesterday.


----------



## Luchesi

Art Rock said:


> It's snowing. Last week we had 20 degrees, now it's close to zero (for the USA: a drop from 68 to 32 F).
> 
> I had scheduled tires change (winter to summer tires) this afternoon, but I'm glad I cancelled it yesterday.


Yes, I don't know confidently, but when I was forecasting over there I don't remember many system configurations which bring the cold air down to you from the northeast (North Sea). This unique situation (I don't know of any others) has been interesting/influential for the long history of the region.

IOW, your cold flow would naturally most often come from the north and northeast, but excess mass builds up in the west which bulges your normal flow pattern (dense cold air replacing warm) to the east. The Gulf Stream dynamically generates the accumulation of mass and the rapid evacuation of mass, but the next few juicy waves will be back over the UK where they oughta be. lol


----------



## progmatist

Art Rock said:


> It's snowing. Last week we had 20 degrees, now it's close to zero (for the USA: a drop from 68 to 32 F).
> 
> I had scheduled tires change (winter to summer tires) this afternoon, but I'm glad I cancelled it yesterday.


Something else we don't have to do here. Even so much as own 2 sets of tires.

We also see many more older and "classic" cars here. They don't suffer rust damage like they do in snowy, or even more humid climates. Not far from here in the middle of the desert is a "parking lot" of sorts for massive amounts of military and passenger aircraft. Our dry climate is ideal for their storage.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Something else we don't have to do here. Even so much as own 2 sets of tires.
> 
> We also see many more older and "classic" cars here. They don't suffer rust damage like they do in snowy, or even more humid climates. Not far from here in the middle of the desert is a "parking lot" of sorts for massive amounts of military and passenger aircraft. Our dry climate is ideal for their storage.


When our friends arrived to live here from Detroit, their car was packed to the brim with extra belongings. And sticking out of the back of the luggage rack on top of it all was a large red snow shovel.

We laughed and laughed about that. We never have enough snow to shovel. I only remember one night decades ago waking up to 5 inches. It had melted away by the next day.


----------



## elgar's ghost

After the recent warm weather we had a sudden sleet squall yesterday - and I got caught in it. The temperature seemed to drop dramatically for about half an hour before the sun came out again. Much colder tonight - it has just dipped below 0 deg. C.


----------



## Chibi Ubu

The 90s (F) have arrived here in the desert once again, here it comes hot for a very long time. 

Edit: OOPS, I'm wrong! I just looked and I see that we are doing the 80s this week once again


----------



## progmatist

Chibi Ubu said:


> The 90s (F) have arrived here in the desert once again, here it comes hot for a very long time.
> 
> Edit: OOPS, I'm wrong! I just looked and I see that we are doing the 80s this week once again


As I stated a few posts ago, the dry 95 we have here in AZ is nothing like the humid 95 during heatwaves, east of the Rockies. A dry 95 is actually borderline pleasant, only slightly on the hot side.


----------



## Luchesi

Chibi Ubu said:


> The 90s (F) have arrived here in the desert once again, here it comes hot for a very long time.
> 
> Edit: OOPS, I'm wrong! I just looked and I see that we are doing the 80s this week once again


Why is one of the hottest places on Earth in Arizona, when it's so far north of the tropics (and Mexico to the south is cooler)? The altitude of the sun isn't quite as important as other factors? Dry air? Why is the air so dry?

The solstice sun was in Cancer so recently to give us the name Tropic of Cancer? What century was that?


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Why is one of the hottest places on Earth in Arizona, when it's so far north of the tropics (and Mexico to the south is cooler)? The altitude of the sun isn't quite as important as other factors? Dry air? Why is the air so dry?
> 
> The solstice sun was in Cancer so recently to give us the name Tropic of Cancer? What century was that?


The dryness is caused by the proximity to the Pacific. The California coast is on the downward trajectory of the gulf stream, so the water is quite cold. Cold water means not so much moisture being picked up by the hotter air riding over it. This effect is amplified moving further inland, into the Mohave and Sonoran deserts. In the winter when the air becomes cooler than the ocean water, moisture vapor and resulting rain storms do in fact move off the Pacific inland. That's why the winter is typically the rainy season for SoCal and Arizona.

As for the heat, the humidity east of the Rockies moderates temperatures, limiting them to the mid to upper 90s during heat waves. If that humidity were to evaporate, it would be 110, 115, 120 in NYC, Philly and D.C. during heat waves. One way or the other, we all feel the heat. I personally would rather feel it without the humidity than with. When we sweat, the sweat actually evaporates and cools us of. Back east, everyone becomes soaked with sweat. When it's 108 and dry here, the heat index is around 103/104, below the mean air temperature.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> The dryness is caused by the proximity to the Pacific. The California coast is on the downward trajectory of the gulf stream, so the water is quite cold. Cold water means not so much moisture being picked up by the hotter air riding over it. This effect is amplified moving further inland, into the Mohave and Sonoran deserts. In the winter when the air becomes cooler than the ocean water, moisture vapor and resulting rain storms do in fact move off the Pacific inland. That's why the winter is typically the rainy season for SoCal and Arizona.
> 
> As for the heat, the humidity east of the Rockies moderates temperatures, limiting them to the mid to upper 90s during heat waves. If that humidity were to evaporate, it would be 110, 115, 120 in NYC, Philly and D.C. during heat waves. One way or the other, we all feel the heat. I personally would rather feel it without the humidity than with. When we sweat, the sweat actually evaporates and cools us of. Back east, everyone becomes soaked with sweat. When it's 108 and dry here, the heat index is around 103/104, below the mean air temperature.


"In the winter when the air becomes cooler than the ocean water, moisture vapor and resulting rain storms do in fact move off the Pacific inland. That's why the winter is typically the rainy season for SoCal and Arizona."

'Interesting conjecture. I don't follow the scientific reasoning. When the air (somewhere) becomes cooler than the ocean water something happens? 
But you might be correct and I don't understand your sentence..

This sounds somewhat like what people surmised before good data was available. It's so interesting to me (but probably not to others in here). People look out their windows every day and wonder about - one day it's clear and the next day heavy rain. It's just life..


----------



## Ingélou

A wonderful sunny day in Yorkshire's Gemtown today - sunny but with light cloud cover and a slight breeze. Suddenly into sight there hove a huge bird of prey (buzzard? kite?) sailing and wheeling. Cor blimey!

Would it be moving on 'thermals' or what?


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> "In the winter when the air becomes cooler than the ocean water, moisture vapor and resulting rain storms do in fact move off the Pacific inland. That's why the winter is typically the rainy season for SoCal and Arizona."
> 
> 'Interesting conjecture. I don't follow the scientific reasoning. When the air (somewhere) becomes cooler than the ocean water something happens?
> But you might be correct and I don't understand your sentence..


Perhaps a better way to phrase it would be water temps have to be as warm as, or warmer than the air flowing over it for efficient evaporation to occur. Water is quite warm over the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Moisture in the form of humidity flows from there to the eastern half of the US, making it quite humid. On the opposite side of the Pacific, Asia is on the upward trajectory of the gulf stream, just as the Eastern US is. The warm water makes it humid and miserable in Eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. The Eastern side of the Atlantic mirrors the Eastern side of the Pacific. The air is cooler, and thus it's rainy most of the time in the British Isles, the Netherlands and Belgium. Just as it is in the Pacific Northwest. Further south, the Iberian Peninsula is mostly a hot desert. And SoCal BTW is technically a desert. It isn't as hot near the coast because of the cool ocean breeze.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Perhaps a better way to phrase it would be water temps have to be as warm as, or warmer than the air flowing over it for efficient evaporation to occur. Water is quite warm over the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Moisture in the form of humidity flows from there to the eastern half of the US, making it quite humid. On the opposite side of the Pacific, Asia is on the upward trajectory of the gulf stream, just as the Eastern US is. The warm water makes it humid and miserable in Eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. The Eastern side of the Atlantic mirrors the Eastern side of the Pacific. The air is cooler, and thus it's rainy most of the time in the British Isles, the Netherlands and Belgium. Just as it is in the Pacific Northwest. Further south, the Iberian Peninsula is mostly a hot desert. And SoCal BTW is technically a desert. It isn't as hot near the coast because of the cool ocean breeze.


Good info and that's a general answer to the question.
But it doesn't tell us why one week in Arizona is rainy while most weeks aren’t. Or why it rains so much in Seattle etc..

Back in World War II jet streams were mapped tentatively. And it was discovered that jet streams are the very active parts of planetary waves. Planetary waves, along with Coriolis, temperature differences and salinity differences, result over time in large ocean currents. Planetary waves also generate regional climates — and every weather condition I can think of in the polar and temperate zones (something similar happens in the tropics). It's true that currents continually either increase humidity (warm currents) or suppress evaporation (cold currents), but periodically very dry regions get very wet and normally wet areas suffer droughts (it’s all due to colliding and dissipating planetary waves). 

So if there's a question about weather events or weather conditions, or regional climates, or the seasons we recognize! the answer is in what’s happening in the planetary waves. This is what allows for some success in long term forecasting (actually I'm very impressed with the forecast products. There has been such a vast improvement since the1980s when governments were starting to seriously invest to solve such problems.).


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Good info and that's a general answer to the question.
> But it doesn't tell us why one week in Arizona is rainy while most weeks aren’t. Or why it rains so much in Seattle etc..


Arizona is even more iffy in the summer. During our monsoon the weather pattern reverses itself, and we get moisture flowing in from the southeast off the Gulf of Mexico. Which every so often will trigger severe thunderstorms. Even with today's advanced forecasting technology, it's very difficult to predict our monsoon thunderstorms. They can pop up out of nowhere, at very inopportune times. Flash floods are even more unpredictable. A wash can suddenly flood and sweep cars away from thunderstorms hundreds of miles away.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Arizona is even more iffy in the summer. During our monsoon the weather pattern reverses itself, and we get moisture flowing in from the southeast off the Gulf of Mexico. Which every so often will trigger severe thunderstorms. Even with today's advanced forecasting technology, it's very difficult to predict our monsoon thunderstorms. They can pop up out of nowhere, at very inopportune times. Flash floods are even more unpredictable. A wash can suddenly flood and sweep cars away from thunderstorms hundreds of miles away.


Yes, in Arizona it's so dry that the sun can often start storms under conditions of strong subsidence (high pressure). And a few of the storms that form might randomly drift under ‘weaknesses’ which occur at the level of heat of crystallization (about 18k ft). These are ripples in the planetary wave (which move eastwardly at about twice the speed of the storms below them) which rotate in harmony with the Earth’s rotational vector. This added boost of energy allows the development of large storms with many many tons of water suspended. But when the sun starts to set there's less and less support from below and the whole structure collapses causing squalls, microbursts and flooding. 

At the outflow boundary of these squalls new storms will pop up very quickly under favorable conditions, because of all the convergences. 'Very interesting to watch on weather radar and you wonder what folks are experiencing directly under the fast-growing nurslings.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Yes, in Arizona it's so dry that the sun can often start storms under conditions of strong subsidence (high pressure). And a few of the storms that form might randomly drift under ‘weaknesses’ which occur at the level of heat of crystallization (about 18k ft). These are ripples in the planetary wave (which move eastwardly at about twice the speed of the storms below them) which rotate in harmony with the Earth’s rotational vector. This added boost of energy allows the development of large storms with many many tons of water suspended. But when the sun starts to set there's less and less support from below and the whole structure collapses causing squalls, microbursts and flooding.
> 
> At the outflow boundary of these squalls new storms will pop up very quickly under favorable conditions, because of all the convergences. 'Very interesting to watch on weather radar and you wonder what folks are experiencing directly under the fast-growing nurslings.


I once attended a public even with a local TV meteorologist. He said the rapid cool-off during thunderstorms, from around 110 to the upper 70s is due to evaporation. I told him actually, no. Evaporation has little if anything to do with rapid cool-offs. Monsoon thunderstorms reach high up in the atmosphere, grab cold air and pull it down to the surface.


----------



## adriesba

Last week I wore shorts, this week I'm thinking about getting my winter coat back out. Welcome to temperate climate springtime. 😂


----------



## Roger Knox

We've had wet snow this afternoon and evening. It feels like a surprise, but shouldn't be one in Canada.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> I once attended a public even with a local TV meteorologist. He said the rapid cool-off during thunderstorms, from around 110 to the upper 70s is due to evaporation. I told him actually, no. Evaporation has little if anything to do with rapid cool-offs. Monsoon thunderstorms reach high up in the atmosphere, grab cold air and pull it down to the surface.


Interesting, what did he say? I agree with you.

For a storm to have lightning potential it needs to first reach the -20 C, about 18k ft. And the large storms that were talking about will grow to 40-50,000 ft. So the collapsing air is colder than -20 and it falls from higher than 25,000 feet. The centers of storms we’re talking about rarely extend more than 20 miles in radius. In my experience, the cold air reaches 50 to 60 miles in radius, on the surface, within 30 to 40 minutes. Very fast!
Other cycling smaller storms around the large storm will also block the sun and rain will cool large areas due to rapid evaporation from the hot, dry desert, and over a larger part of Arizona. Large contrasts speed up all effects.

One thing people should keep in mind, TV weather people will get degrees in meteorology and journalism. They can read the charts and products and explain what’s going on, but they’re young (photogenic), and they’ve had very little technical experience to fall back on if someone asks such a question.
I’m not dissing them. Their careers are hectic and stressful. So many daily deadlines and waiting for up-to-date info, hard deadlines! Your boss is a director or a producer, with no interest in the realities of the science. I did it for a year on Armed Forces TV (AFRTS) and I didn’t like it.


----------



## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> We've had wet snow this afternoon and evening. It feels like a surprise, but shouldn't be one in Canada.


Yes, small waves within larger waves. Only the smaller waves have the energy available to generate precipitation. What will happen in the future to these smaller waves (surprises) when the planet’s energy is increased by 2°C?
Down here in the Southwest we’ll have a large wave over us tomorrow, but it won't affect us much at all because it's too big. It seems so anti-intuitive.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> One thing people should keep in mind, TV weather people will get degrees in meteorology and journalism. They can read the charts and products and explain what’s going on, but they’re young (photogenic), and they’ve had very little technical experience to fall back on if someone asks such a question.
> I’m not dissing them. Their careers are hectic and stressful. So many daily deadlines and waiting for up-to-date info, hard deadlines! Your boss is a director or a producer, with no interest in the realities of the science. I did it for a year on Armed Forces TV (AFRTS) and I didn’t like it.


TV meteorologists tend to get much wrong about our unique weather. There was a day when we had a temperature spike just ahead of a cold front. A TV weatherman new to the valley said it was highly unusual. Actually, it's quite common here. Another weatherman was baffled Roosevelt Lake was nearly full, but Apache and Canyon lakes downstream were nearly empty. They're kept mostly empty by design. They were built specifically to hold back massive water releases from Roosevelt Dam. That was after the remnants of hurricane moved through the area in the late 70s. The deluge from Roosevelt Dam washed away every bridge from the East Valley to Phoenix, except the Mill Avenue Bridge. Over what is now Tempe Town Lake. A traffic nightmare to be sure. If that were to happen today, multiply that nightmare by a gazillion.


----------



## Chibi Ubu

progmatist said:


> When it's 108 and dry here (arizona), the heat index is around 103/104, below the mean air temperature.


Yes! But it gets pretty testy when the temp is 115+ degrees F, the air is polluted and stagnated such that the ozone burns your eyes


----------



## progmatist

Chibi Ubu said:


> Yes! But it gets pretty testy when the temp is 115+ degrees F, the air is polluted and stagnated such that the ozone burns your eyes


True, but I find the pea soup humidity back east far more oppressive. I lived here most of my life, but the most miserable summer I ever spent was in Memphis, TN. On June 26, 1990 when we hit our all time record of 122, it wasn't as oppressive as a typical summer day in Memphis. And I don't have to tell you our extreme heat will eventually subside. It takes longer now than in past decades, but it will subside. In Memphis, it was all summer long.


----------



## Luchesi

The weather across the southern US is under the influence of being between two of the 5 or 6 (they cycle up and down) huge planetary waves advecting around the top of the world. Much less energy for severe weather. And through the whole dangerous month of May, which a very good thing. No large outbreaks of killer tornadoes. 
There will be a few tornadoes, so small clusters will still be dangerous.


----------



## Chibi Ubu

It's gonna break 100 deg F today. It's not so bad, live in it and you'll get used to it


----------



## progmatist

Chibi Ubu said:


> It's gonna break 100 deg F today. It's not so bad, live in it and you'll get used to it


I'll be dealing with it all day as I set up for, and participate in the Phoenix First Friday event.


----------



## Luchesi

A cold core low will break below where it had been forecast, on the 22nd through the 25th. Could result in a tornado outbreak.


----------



## Chibi Ubu




----------



## Luchesi

Chibi Ubu said:


>


Here in the desert Southwest we wait for the sun to return to higher in our skies, because, no more cold shocks or dust storms, until mid October. 

It seems anti-intuitive, we feel more of the sun's energy, but no more mesoscale weather systems for us until the sun's back lower in our skies. Strange magic.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Here in the desert Southwest we wait for the sun to return to higher in our skies, because, no more cold shocks or dust storms, until mid October.
> 
> It seems anti-intuitive, we feel more of the sun's energy, but no more mesoscale weather systems for us until the sun's back lower in our skies. Strange magic.


Here in the Sonoran Desert specifically, when the spike in temperatures gives way to the monsoon, that's when we get massive dust storms. Or haboobs as they're known here. Also when we get our first monsoon rain, the oil buildup from months of no rain makes our freeways particularly slick. One could call it our karma for not having icy roads.


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## Chibi Ubu

progmatist said:


> Here in the Sonoran Desert specifically, when the spike in temperatures gives way to the monsoon, that's when we get massive dust storms. Or haboobs as they're known here. Also when we get our first monsoon rain, the oil buildup from months of no rain makes our freeways particularly slick. One could call it our karma for not having icy roads.


The freeways get oily in Houston when it rains there...


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## NoCoPilot

Predicting the weather is easy here in Seattle. Simply stick your arm out a window.

If it comes back wet, it's raining. If it comes back dry, it's about to rain.


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## Luchesi

The models are now saying that a tropical storm will be over Corpus Christi on June 1st. A large wave will be over the Southwest keeping the moisture over in TX. Darn, my plants need water every day because of the 10 percent humidity. It's harsh.


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## Luchesi

Luchesi said:


> The models are now saying that a tropical storm will be over Corpus Christi on June 1st. A large wave will be over the Southwest keeping the moisture over in TX. Darn, my plants need water every day because of the 10 percent humidity. It's harsh.


update;
Now intensities have changed in the latest runs so that that tropical depression above will cross northern Florida instead (on the 24th). It might change again, but the runs agree that conditions will create a tropical depression in the Gulf at that time. It's less straightforward to calculate the layers of steering flows at that time, so each run solves it differently (until the time get closer). 

The 48hr forecast is quite reliable.


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## Chibi Ubu

Luchesi said:


> update;
> Now intensities have changed in the latest runs so that that tropical depression above will cross northern Florida instead (on the 24th). It might change again, but the runs agree that conditions will create a tropical depression in the Gulf at that time. It's less straightforward to calculate the layers of steering flows at that time, so each run solves it differently (until the time get closer).
> 
> The 48hr forecast is quite reliable.


Oh cripees, it's getting to be that time of year. When I lived in Houston, I lived through a major tropical storm which flooded downtown Houston & two hurricanes. I miss the food & culture, but definitely not the weather.


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## Luchesi

Chibi Ubu said:


> Oh cripees, it's getting to be that time of year. When I lived in Houston, I lived through a major tropical storm which flooded downtown Houston & two hurricanes. I miss the food & culture, but definitely not the weather.


It's educational to look at, but we can be pretty sure that it won't happen like this.

There’s tropical rainstorms around Panama currently.

By Thursday the 19th the Earth’s rotation and the inflow outflow dynamics/feedbacks will result in a depression. As its curvature strengthens in harmony with the rotational vector it will persist through the diurnal cycles. When it has moved a little to the north the winds will be stronger and therefore the chimney effect will speed up (for development).

By Friday the 27th it will hit New Orleans.

But the steering winds will change with the varying intensities nearby, whipsawing the trajectory. 

Now, if the depression doesn’t form down there, then it’s all a false alarm.


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## atsizat

34.4°C and Sunny


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## Luchesi

106f here yesterday
An unusual collision of short waves (for so late in the Spring here) backed our surface winds toward the south, giving us warm air advection. It surprised the forecasters. It's very rare to miss a high temperature by so much, 106 vs 96. But early in a season mistakes are more common for the humans and the models.


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## Krummhorn

105° last week ... 92° today ... way too much stupid sunshine for my tastes. Hopefully in another 45 days we get some relief during our 'monsoon' season when we typically get the most rain. Those summer storms roll through the valley with deadly lightening and heavy rains, flooding most streets and filling up the rivers which are normally dry. 

Thank goodness for the invention of air conditioning ... comfortable inside at 76°.


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## senza sordino

Another day of grey nimbostratus clouds and rain. It seems never ending. 

If you measure the total rainfall from July 1st to June 30th, then you include the entire winter season. The weather statisticians do that here. I think this makes sense, especially here in the Pacific Northwest when our weather is dependent on the cycles of el niño and la niña. We've in a la niña pattern right now: cooler temperatures in the eastern Pacific. 

The year from July 1st to June 30th is not over yet, we have one month to go, and it's already the fifth wettest in the previous 25 years. We've had three times more rain this month (May) than May of last year.

I want to get out on my bike and do some long rides, 50 km or more. It's not rained every day since last August, but it has rained a lot. We just don't seem to get many dry weekends. I've been out on the bike a few times, but not as many as last year.


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## progmatist

Krummhorn said:


> 105° last week ... 92° today ... way too much stupid sunshine for my tastes. Hopefully in another 45 days we get some relief during our 'monsoon' season when we typically get the most rain. Those summer storms roll through the valley with deadly lightening and heavy rains, flooding most streets and filling up the rivers which are normally dry.
> 
> Thank goodness for the invention of air conditioning ... comfortable inside at 76°.


The time the monsoon arrives is very much dependent on how hot a spring we have. The super-heating of the desert floor is a necessary mechanism for bringing in the monsoon flow. In El Nino years when we have a later, cooler spring, we have a longer spell of 110+ temps. The desert floor has much catching up to do before the monsoon finally arrives.


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> The time the monsoon arrives is very much dependent on how hot a spring we have. The super-heating of the desert floor is a necessary mechanism for bringing in the monsoon flow. In El Nino years when we have a later, cooler spring, we have a longer spell of 110+ temps. The desert floor has much catching up to do before the monsoon finally arrives.


I haven't heard of that logic. The long-range guys forecast the general conditions from the ENSO. It's interesting to hear what's involved. The position and strength of the Subtropical Jet affects our winters here in the SouthWest. Someone said that the ENSO is the dog and the jet is its wagging tail (it's weaker than the Polar Jet, whose relative position and movement results in flooding, droughts, tornadoes, even breezy days and cloudiness in the ConUS)).


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## Roger Knox

Ten days ago on May 21 I learned by experience what a _derecho_ is -- "a rapidly-moving thunderstorm complex that produces widespread wind damage" -- not very common in Ontario though well-known in the USA. It moves straight ahead unlike the spiral motion of a hurricane or tornado. A million households lost power and there were 11 deaths in Ontario and Quebec, mostly from falling trees. No harm to my neighborhood but we had trees down in Toronto. Elsewhere in southern Ontario there were an EF2 tornado and 2 EF1 QLCS tornadoes, the latter around London, ON. Our weather is getting more complex and severe. Today the temp shot up to 84 degrees F.


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## Roger Knox

Re *senza sordino's* post #2,420 today, it brings back memories of living in Vancouver in the 1960's-70's, but the weather was was less extreme then.


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## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> Ten days ago on May 21 I learned by experience what a _derecho_ is -- "a rapidly-moving thunderstorm complex that produces widespread wind damage" -- not very common in Ontario though well-known in the USA. It moves straight ahead unlike the spiral motion of a hurricane or tornado. A million households lost power and there were 11 deaths in Ontario and Quebec, mostly from falling trees. No harm to my neighborhood but we had trees down in Toronto. Elsewhere in southern Ontario there were an EF2 tornado and 2 EF1 QLCS tornadoes, the latter around London, ON. Our weather is getting more complex and severe. Today the temp shot up to 84 degrees F.


It might have been similar dynamically to a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC), which we have down here, coming up from not far south in Mexico. They churn and persist for two or three days, which is quite an event for us.

Weather can be dangerous for your latitude very late in the spring as the short waves embedded in the planetary waves are pushed north by the returning sun. We actually call them short waves. Not a very interesting name considering that they produce most of the noteworthy phenomena, but the early scientists weren't very creative (as in other fields).


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> I haven't heard of that logic. The long-range guys forecast the general conditions from the ENSO. It's interesting to hear what's involved. The position and strength of the Subtropical Jet affects our winters here in the SouthWest. Someone said that the ENSO is the dog and the jet is its wagging tail (it's weaker than the Polar Jet, whose relative position and movement results in flooding, droughts, tornadoes, even breezy days and cloudiness in the ConUS)).


You're not alone. Newly arrived meteorologists are unfamiliar with the quirks of our unique climate. The weather conditions you cited are what make our springs late. Not what increases the number of 110+ days. The monsoonal flow will be all around us. It hesitates actually flowing in our direction.


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## Roger Knox

Luchesi said:


> It might have been similar dynamically to a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC), which we have down here, coming up from not far south in Mexico. They churn and persist for two or three days, which is quite an event for us.
> 
> Weather can be dangerous for your latitude very late in the spring as the short waves embedded in the planetary waves are pushed north by the returning sun. We actually call them short waves. Not a very interesting name considering that they produce most of the noteworthy phenomena, but the early scientists weren't very creative (as in other fields).


If Wikipedia can be trusted the _derecho _fits the category of Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) that you have described. My initial thought was that it must be found in the US Southwest because of the Spanish name. And that's true of your MCC coming up from Mexico. But apparently it's more common in the US mid-latitudes. And up to southern Manitoba and Ontario. The one we had May 21 was unusually wide and destructive, in Quebec as well. The "short waves pushed north" -- I bet hardly anyone here knows about them, and few would have known the term _derecho _till recently. 

Same with the "atmospheric rivers" associated with widespread flooding in British Columbia a while ago. The direct costs of those events, and subsequent restoration and enhancement of safety along the Fraser River delta I saw announced as $3.9 _billion _a couple of days ago.


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## Roger Knox

progmatist said:


> True, but I find the pea soup humidity back east far more oppressive. I lived here most of my life, but the most miserable summer I ever spent was in Memphis, TN. On June 26, 1990 when we hit our all time record of 122, it wasn't as oppressive as a typical summer day in Memphis. And I don't have to tell you our extreme heat will eventually subside. It takes longer now than in past decades, but it will subside. In Memphis, it was all summer long.


In my youth, survived a summer in southern Indiana (Bloomington, not far north of the Kentucky border) without AC at home. How I don't know.


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## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> If Wikipedia can be trusted the _derecho _fits the category of Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) that you have described. My initial thought was that it must be found in the US Southwest because of the Spanish name. And that's true of your MCC coming up from Mexico. But apparently it's more common in the US mid-latitudes. And up to southern Manitoba and Ontario. The one we had May 21 was unusually wide and destructive, in Quebec as well. The "short waves pushed north" -- I bet hardly anyone here knows about them, and few would have known the term _derecho _till recently.
> 
> Same with the "atmospheric rivers" associated with widespread flooding in British Columbia a while ago. The direct costs of those events, and subsequent restoration and enhancement of safety along the Fraser River delta I saw announced as $3.9 _billion _a couple of days ago.


Yes, it's much more common up there where there's more moisture. We had one south of us when a remnant of a hurricane came up over us. Hurricane Donna? I actually went into work on my day off to watch it on our FPS77 (weather radar). 
People might get the idea that short waves are rare, but they're what bring the changes (the bad weather in the middle and high latitudes). You have one approaching you currently.

The rivers get more damaging as the planet warms and the air can hold more moisture, and the wind speeds aloft increase slightly (hopefully only slightly).


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> You're not alone. Newly arrived meteorologists are unfamiliar with the quirks of our unique climate. The weather conditions you cited are what make our springs late. Not what increases the number of 110+ days. The monsoonal flow will be all around us. It hesitates actually flowing in our direction.


We're taught that weather in every location on earth can be understood by the same theory, but your county is an extreme case.


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## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Yes, it's much more common up there where there's more moisture. We had one south of us when a remnant of a hurricane came up over us. Hurricane Donna? I actually went into work on my day off to watch it on our FPS77 (weather radar).
> People might get the idea that short waves are rare, but they're what bring the changes (the bad weather in the middle and high latitudes). You have one approaching you currently.
> 
> The rivers get more damaging as the planet warms and the air can hold more moisture, and the wind speeds aloft increase slightly (hopefully only slightly).


This year's tornado season is particularly severe. Take the usual clash of hot moist air with cold dry air, and supercharge that with record heat.


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## Luchesi

^^^^Divergence aloft (allowing rapid outflow, the chimney effect) is so dangerous near the jetstreams, polar and subtropical. Without those jets you only get rope clouds and small, short-lived twisters bouncing up and down. But never say never..

I remember flying into Champaign airport and we could see a tornado on the ground to the right. The pilot figured he'd just go around again and it would move away. It did, but I was dearly hoping that the storm wouldn't collapse, because it was probably 50k ft high. It could have squashed us like a bug. We know the massive downrush has to go down somewhere, but the storm was stable or still growing. We were lucky (and the pilot 'learned' that he could do that and save costs, very bad!!).


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## Luchesi

The models are bringing an unusual rain event to Arizona and then up through Colorado, from the Baja! on the 15th. It looks like a Tropical Storm! It's intriguing, but it's probably just the result of an accumulation of errors, that far into the future. 
Anyway, unrelated, on the 16th the monsoon should first arrive in the western mountains of New Mexico. I hope that happens. It will be weak (and early), but I'll take it.


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## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Anyway, unrelated, on the 16th the monsoon should first arrive in the western mountains of New Mexico. I hope that happens. It will be weak (and early), but I'll take it.


I prefer the old model of identifying the monsoon. 3 days in a row of 55 degree or higher dew points here in Phoenix, 54 in Tucson, and 45 in Flagstaff. Then 3 days in a row below that dew point threshold indicating a break in the monsoon.


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> I prefer the old model of identifying the monsoon. 3 days in a row of 55 degree or higher dew points here in Phoenix, 54 in Tucson, and 45 in Flagstaff. Then 3 days in a row below that dew point threshold indicating a break in the monsoon.


Yes, good, I've heard of that view of it. We can't do it here, because of more complicated weathers windows, as they're called (so that no one is confused when they're being discussed).


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## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Yes, good, I've heard of that view of it. We can't do it here, because of more complicated weathers windows, as they're called (so that no one is confused when they're being discussed).


But then you're closer to the monsoon flow than we are. Here it's more hit and miss.


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## Luchesi

Due to the warming, the semi-permanent Gulf of Mexico High seems stronger and that pushes its moisture far to the west coast of Mexico and up to you. That should benefit you guys, but yes, it's a long hot/dry path up to the Phoenix area. I think the Mexico mountains there are benefiting from the stronger push.

Oops. I just looked and a tropical deppression will form near the Yucatan on the 13th, and this will block the monsoonal flow, for 3 to 5 days, ..and the flow will have set up again. If this low pressure doesn't form and reshape the High then the pattern will go back to favorable for us.


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## Nate Miller

Weather here in Pennsylvania is lovely. Sunny, humidity is low and the temp is about 80. It feels like the whole place is air conditioned and everything is green and lush. In fact my wild Irish roses are blooming at the same time as my regular red rose bushes and the combination of red and white flowers is really out this year. Not every year has the two flowers blooming at the same time. Some years the red roses don't bloom until after the wild Irish roses have come and gone

but not this year


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## Luchesi

Looking at the numericals I'm hoping that the monsoon moisture will reach the Phoenix area by Friday the 17th. There's a little moisture now, and there's a weak cap of downward vertical motion, but there's plenty of sun - especially with the lifting effect of the mountains.


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## senza sordino

Yesterday, we experienced another atmospheric river. Not quite as intense as last November, but we did have over 30 mm of rain (25 mm = 1 inch) in one day. Not a monsoon, but it's a lot for a single day here in June. 

The snowpack here in British Columbia is already above normal. With the normal spring run-off and extra June rain, the rivers here are at or above capacity. There will be flooding and evacuations over the next month. I don't live next to a river, so I won't be affected, but I feel for my provincial neighbours who'll have to evacuate again. My girlfriend's parking lot might flood, she lives next to the river. 

It's been a very wet and wintery season. I haven't been out onto my bike much this spring, the weather is just too unreliable - it rains nearly every day here. By the end of June, it will be the third or fourth wettest year in the past 25 years. Not a record-breaker, but still bleak and depressing. Last year, it was a lot sunnier. (As I mentioned in a previous post, a good way to measure year rain here is from July 1st to June 30th because it includes the entire winter season in one year).

The joke here is: When is the rainy season here? Answer: July to June!


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## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Looking at the numericals I'm hoping that the monsoon moisture will reach the Phoenix area by Friday the 17th. There's a little moisture now, and there's a weak cap of downward vertical motion, but there's plenty of sun - especially with the lifting effect of the mountains.


Most thunderstorms hitting the Phoenix area originate from, and fall down the Mogollon ("mogue-eon") Rim. The "East Valley" where I live tends to get hit first. Ditto when storms move Northwest from Tucson. The vast majority of our haboobs move Northwest from Tucson. Along the way, outflow boundaries pick up massive amounts of dirt over the Gila ("hee-luh") River Valley. Where most of the State's agriculture is located. The Interstate 8/Gila River corridor is notoriously problematic for heavy dust. Not much dust can be picked up from the undisturbed hard clay of the desert floor. That changes when that clay is tilled for farming. Just like tilling the Midwestern prairie grass led to the 1930s dust bowl.


----------



## Luchesi

senza sordino said:


> Yesterday, we experienced another atmospheric river. Not quite as intense as last November, but we did have over 30 mm of rain (25 mm = 1 inch) in one day. Not a monsoon, but it's a lot for a single day here in June.
> 
> The snowpack here in British Columbia is already above normal. With the normal spring run-off and extra June rain, the rivers here are at or above capacity. There will be flooding and evacuations over the next month. I don't live next to a river, so I won't be affected, but I feel for my provincial neighbours who'll have to evacuate again. My girlfriend's parking lot might flood, she lives next to the river.
> 
> It's been a very wet and wintery season. I haven't been out onto my bike much this spring, the weather is just too unreliable - it rains nearly every day here. By the end of June, it will be the third or fourth wettest year in the past 25 years. Not a record-breaker, but still bleak and depressing. Last year, it was a lot sunnier. (As I mentioned in a previous post, a good way to measure year rain here is from July 1st to June 30th because it includes the entire winter season in one year).
> 
> The joke here is: When is the rainy season here? Answer: July to June!


It's funny, if you really did have a 'monsoon' it would be dry for you. 

A monsoon is a predictable, seasonal and persisting change in the wind, the low level moisture flow... , but don't worry about it, people know what you mean. The zonal rivers and the max winds would never allow a monsoon to get started where you are. But with a more energetic planetary wave pattern, who knows what's coming in 50 to 100 years (hopefully not sooner). 
Of course in the summers, you could have stagnated systems and such backups do result in nasty droughts. And I expect that your forest species are not adapted for prolonged droughts.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Most thunderstorms hitting the Phoenix area originate from, and fall down the Mogollon ("mogue-eon") Rim. The "East Valley" where I live tends to get hit first. Ditto when storms move Northwest from Tucson. The vast majority of our haboobs move Northwest from Tucson. Along the way, outflow boundaries pick up massive amounts of dirt over the Gila ("hee-luh") River Valley. Where most of the State's agriculture is located. The Interstate 8/Gila River corridor is notoriously problematic for heavy dust. Not much dust can be picked up from the undisturbed hard clay of the desert floor. That changes when that clay is tilled for farming. Just like tilling the Midwestern prairie grass led to the 1930s dust bowl.


You're in a good location for clouds and cooling, it sounds like.

I don't remember the weather windows there, because I only briefed jet jocks there at Williams AFB. We just tried to keep them from diverting to their alternates, in order to hold down costs and get them home every night.


----------



## Roger Knox

senza sordino said:


> Yesterday, we experienced another atmospheric river. Not quite as intense as last November, but we did have over 30 mm of rain (25 mm = 1 inch) in one day. Not a monsoon, but it's a lot for a single day here in June.
> 
> The snowpack here in British Columbia is already above normal. With the normal spring run-off and extra June rain, the rivers here are at or above capacity. There will be flooding and evacuations over the next month. I don't live next to a river, so I won't be affected, but I feel for my provincial neighbours who'll have to evacuate again. My girlfriend's parking lot might flood, she lives next to the river.
> 
> It's been a very wet and wintery season. I haven't been out onto my bike much this spring, the weather is just too unreliable - it rains nearly every day here. By the end of June, it will be the third or fourth wettest year in the past 25 years. Not a record-breaker, but still bleak and depressing. Last year, it was a lot sunnier. (As I mentioned in a previous post, a good way to measure year rain here is from July 1st to June 30th because it includes the entire winter season in one year).
> 
> The joke here is: When is the rainy season here? Answer: July to June!


Oh no -- the last thing you need! I hope your girl friend will be ok. It's now 40 years since I lived in Vancouver; back then the summers were temperate and less rainy than other seasons. Now it seems like there's no respite.


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## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> A monsoon is a predictable, seasonal and persisting change in the wind, the low level moisture flow...


"Monsoon" is Arabic for season. Summers in India start with the jet stream south of them, making it very hot and dry. The monsoon pushes the jet stream north of them, bringing in moist air from the Indian Ocean.



Luchesi said:


> You're in a good location for clouds and cooling, it sounds like.
> 
> I don't remember the weather windows there, because I only briefed jet jocks there at Williams AFB. We just tried to keep them from diverting to their alternates, in order to hold down costs and get them home every night.


Interestingly, Sky Harbor Airport where the official rain gauge is located gets very little rainfall during the monsoon. It rains heavily all around it, but the official totals are deceivingly low. The Airport is in a weather dead zone. An excellent place to build an airport, but a lousy place to measure rainfall.


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> "Monsoon" is Arabic for season. Summers in India start with the jet stream south of them, making it very hot and dry. The monsoon pushes the jet stream north of them, bringing in moist air from the Indian Ocean.
> 
> 
> 
> Interestingly, Sky Harbor Airport where the official rain gauge is located gets very little rainfall during the monsoon. It rains heavily all around it, but the official totals are deceivingly low. The Airport is in a weather dead zone. An excellent place to build an airport, but a lousy place to measure rainfall.


Yes, every storm will stretch with age and dry slots appear and dissipate with advection, but you're right, local conditions are also a big factor. 
They use sophisticated statistical techniques and limited fine mesh griding now for parameters like temperature, wind speed and direction, rainfall, snow fall.


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## Luchesi

Surprisingly, the models are bringing the July monsoon (for western half of NM and eastern Arizona) early, by the end of this week, for 2 long weeks (as far they can estimate). 

The planetary wave has been pushed far enough north by the sun now, with its embedded waves, and the circulation from the south is forecast to be strong enough to be called the monsoon. Could be 20 to 30 percent chances of rain for 2 weeks, if nothing disturbs the pattern. It's earlier and stronger than I remember in past Junes (this makes me suspicious, but I'm always that way beyond 4 day forecasts).


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Surprisingly, the models are bringing the July monsoon (for western half of NM and eastern Arizona) early, by the end of this week, for 2 long weeks (as far they can estimate).
> 
> The planetary wave has been pushed far enough north by the sun now, with its embedded waves, and the circulation from the south is forecast to be strong enough to be called the monsoon. Could be 20 to 30 percent chances of rain for 2 weeks, if nothing disturbs the pattern. It's earlier and stronger than I remember in past Junes (this makes me suspicious, but I'm always that way beyond 4 day forecasts).


Yes it's definitely early. But then, so are the oppressive heat waves nationwide.


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## progmatist

Yesterday our first actual, not calendar day of the monsoon, our dew point temp immediately jumped into the 60s. It normally takes several days to climb. Overnight we had a heavy soaking rain. That typically only happens when the monsoon flow has significant time to establish itself.


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Yesterday our first actual, not calendar day of the monsoon, our dew point temp immediately jumped into the 60s. It normally takes several days to climb. Overnight we had a heavy soaking rain. That typically only happens when the monsoon flow has significant time to establish itself.


The slight climate change in Mexico (let's call it) can't be bad for Arizona. The last hurricane down there wasn't handled well by the models. Its 1000 ft level moisture was under-forecast. There's little data from down there for the data grid.

Another hurricane should form down there late this week.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> The slight climate change in Mexico (let's call it) can't be bad for Arizona. The last hurricane down there wasn't handled well by the models. Its 1000 ft level moisture was under-forecast. There's little data from down there for the data grid.
> 
> Another hurricane should form down there late this week.


The exact path of hurricane remnants caught up in the monsoon pattern is almost as difficult to predict as the monsoon itself. On the East and Gulf Coasts, even they have a cone of probability. Which expands as it gets farther away from the storm itself.


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## Luchesi

The models are saying that there won't be a dry separation in this monsoon until the middle of July. Wow. (It doesn't mean their estimates are correct, of course.) I don't remember seeing so many consecutive days like this in the past. 

Global warming might bring wetter summers to us. They can't get much drier. Almost 90 inches of evaporation per year, when we only receive 4 to 7 inches of rain (in the desert floor). More energetic systems mean more moisture transport, farther into the typically driest locations. And then, if they get too energetic we'll go back to drier conditions again.


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## Luchesi

I don't know if this is interesting to music fans, but I'll post it anyway.

The summer season planetary wave over North America has moved (oscillated) to the east, and will be allowing low pressure circulations to form over the Deep South. This change will bring cooler temperatures and some rain to the coastal states, but no additional energy will be available for severe storms (unlikely). Also, tropical storms won't be generated this far north, this early in the season.

We can think about it as these large semipermanent high pressure blobs falling behind the rotation of the planet and circulating in the opposite direction against the prevailing flow. It's all relative, but this results in downward vertical motion (except in the weak spots).

For our members in the American Southwest, the Rocky Mountain High will build nonstop through July, because of this new configuration (the Gulf of Mexico High will be east of Florida). Surprisingly, this counterclockwise circulation will be visible all the way up at 45,000 feet. The numbers say that this will decrease the rain showers but there will still be enough lifting by the mountains and by the intense sunshine. The good news here also is that there won't be enough additional energy to form severe storms.

For our friends in Europe, they don't get a monsoonal seasonal change, except for down south - giving them heat waves. Right now it looks like a nasty storm will hit France on the 19th and 20th of July.

This is what the numbers say. It's totally objective in the sense that no human opinions are involved. 

A clockwork universe, fascinating to me..


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## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> I don't know if this is interesting to music fans, but I'll post it anyway.
> 
> The summer season planetary wave over North America has moved (oscillated) to the east, and will be allowing low pressure circulations to form over the Deep South. This change will bring cooler temperatures and some rain to the coastal states, but no additional energy will be available for severe storms (unlikely). Also, tropical storms won't be generated this far north, this early in the season.
> 
> We can think about it as these large semipermanent high pressure blobs falling behind the rotation of the planet and circulating in the opposite direction against the prevailing flow. It's all relative, but this results in downward vertical motion (except in the weak spots).
> 
> For our members in the American Southwest, the Rocky Mountain High will build nonstop through July, because of this new configuration (the Gulf of Mexico High will be east of Florida). Surprisingly, this counterclockwise circulation will be visible all the way up at 45,000 feet. The numbers say that this will decrease the rain showers but there will still be enough lifting by the mountains and by the intense sunshine. The good news here also is that there won't be enough additional energy to form severe storms.
> 
> For our friends in Europe, they don't get a monsoonal seasonal change, except for down south - giving them heat waves. Right now it looks like a nasty storm will hit France on the 19th and 20th of July.
> 
> This is what the numbers say. It's totally objective in the sense that no human opinions are involved.
> 
> A clockwork universe, fascinating to me..


Here in AZ, we're often influenced by "thermal lows" over the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California. Aka Sea of Cortez. Hot air rising creates counterclockwise rotation, which forms the low. When that happens, that counterclockwise rotation combined with the typical clockwise rotating high over the 4 corners region really pumps in the monsoonal moisture.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Here in AZ, we're often influenced by "thermal lows" over the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California. Aka Sea of Cortez. Hot air rising creates counterclockwise rotation, which forms the low. When that happens, that counterclockwise rotation combined with the typical clockwise rotating high over the 4 corners region really pumps in the monsoonal moisture.


Thermal lows over water?


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## progmatist

Just got hit by a massive monsoon thunderstorm. Powerful winds knocked branches from the huge pine tree in the common area into the neighbors' patio. Two and a half miles due south of me, the US-60 freeway is closed due to flooding.



Luchesi said:


> Thermal lows over water?


In that general vicinity. Not specifically over the water.


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Just got hit by a massive monsoon thunderstorm. Powerful winds knocked branches from the huge pine tree in the common area into the neighbors' patio. Two and a half miles due south of me, the US-60 freeway is closed due to flooding.
> 
> In that general vicinity. Not specifically over the water.


Thanks, I hope no one was hurt.

There's a large cold core low centered over New York and it's been moving east from where it was centered over Wisconsin. This has allowed the Rocky Mountain High to grow even faster, reaching 45k ft. The high winds up along the backside of this High are over western Arizona. The resulting diffluence above 35k ft greatly enhanced the growth of the largest storms which were first to reach 35k ft. The tons of water and cold air (heavy) in a large thunderstorm all fell very quickly near you.

How much of this is global warming? There’s been unusual collisions with these more intense high pressure blobs, but they’re still few and far apart. 

For some good news, the storm that looked to be bad for France on the 19th now is forecast to outrun its support. So right now, the forecast is for just rain.


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## progmatist

Just after going to bed last night, we were hit by a second wave thunderstorm with torrential rain. The green belt/retention basin just outside my town house is still full of water. In the past, kids have swam in that basin, complete with the oil and other muck from the parking lot which flows into it. I was always like, why? There's a perfectly good swimming pool a few dozen steps away.


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## elgar's ghost

At least two days of temperatures reaching mid-late 30s Celsius here early next week. That will necessitate putting the fan on - and thanks to the recent sharp increase in energy costs it will probably stick another tenner on next month's electricity bill as well. The thrill of it all...


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## Art Rock

Similar predictions here in Kampen for the coming days: For the Americans, 39C=102F, and like most people in this part of the world we do not have aircon at home.


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## Luchesi

Luchesi said:


> Thanks, I hope no one was hurt.
> 
> There's a large cold core low centered over New York and it's been moving east from where it was centered over Wisconsin. This has allowed the Rocky Mountain High to grow even faster, reaching 45k ft. The high winds up along the backside of this High are over western Arizona. The resulting diffluence above 35k ft greatly enhanced the growth of the largest storms which were first to reach 35k ft. The tons of water and cold air (heavy) in a large thunderstorm all fell very quickly near you.
> 
> How much of this is global warming? There’s been unusual collisions with these more intense high pressure blobs, but they’re still few and far apart.
> 
> For some good news, the storm that looked to be bad for France on the 19th now is forecast to outrun its support. So right now, the forecast is for just rain.


That pesky low over New York has moved up to Newfoundland. So now it's in a position to evacuate mass out of a cyclone which has been churning down to the south, in the middle of the Atlantic. And that cyclone was already past its mature stage and was beginning to move, but now it will outrun its upper level support. It will weaken, speed up and move northeast to Norway within a few days. It's not very wide either, it won't have enough time to generate severe storms in France (according to the models). Good news. 

Ahead of this low all that warm air from Spain and points south will race up to the north. If this breaks temperature records should it be counted towards the progress of global warming, when it's such a small event? A lot of people live in its path and it's news worthy.


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## Ingélou

We're braced for two extremely hot days here in the UK. It will apparently reach 41 degrees centigrade.


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## Kiki

It looks like the current heat wave is hitting most parts of the northern hemisphere.

We have been having a "prolonged heat alert" in HK for a week and it will likely continue for at least another with temperature topping 35C. I know, _only_ 35C, which is low compared to some other places, but the tough thing is that so far it has stayed above 30C even at night. Can't sleep without turning on the air-cond. which is something I would prefer not doing if I could because of environmental concerns and the electricity bill will also be hefty.


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## Rogerx

Ingélou said:


> We're braced for two extremely hot days here in the UK. It will apparently reach 41 degrees centigrade.


Over here the same, it's keep cool and do not move to much weather


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## progmatist

2 nights ago, the entire Phoenix area was hit by a massive monsoon thunderstorm. Spotty storms are common. Valley wide storms, as this one was are relatively rare. The 65mph winds tore shingles off roofs, and shredded trees all over my townhouse complex. There's still a bent window screen leaning against my unit. From where it came is a mystery. A good sized tree belonging to the neighboring mini-storage was sheered at the trunk. Just below where all the branches begin. Last I checked, the entire top of the tree is still laying in the street.

The cooling effect of the storm was but a brief respite in the 110+ temps we've been having lately. And with dew points hovering around 55 degrees, we feel every one of those 110+ degrees. In drier weather, the heat index is a few degrees below the air temperature. But for the dew points moderating the temperatures, we'd likely be around 118 to 120. Not the 112 to 115 we've been having.


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## Forster

Ingélou said:


> We're braced for two extremely hot days here in the UK. It will apparently reach 41 degrees centigrade.


And two hot days duly arrived, today reaching the highest ever temperature recorded in the UK of 40.3 C (104.5F).


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## Krummhorn

progmatist said:


> 2 nights ago, the entire Phoenix area was hit by a massive monsoon thunderstorm.


Pretty much the same thing here in Tucson though a few degrees cooler because of our higher elevation. Still 109° is just too hot for me ... I love the summer thunderstorms and the rain ... We stay inside mostly with the inside temp set at 78°.


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## Ingélou

Forster said:


> And two hot days duly arrived, today reaching the highest ever temperature recorded in the UK of 40.3 C (104.5F).


And rather to my surprise, it's made me feel really ill. Yesterday the only place in the house that was bearable was the downstairs bathroom, so we repaired there in the afternoon and did crosswords.


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## Art Rock

Glad to see temperatures slowly returning to more normal values. It was not too bad inside yesterday, even though outside hit 37 deg. C (my wife stayed inside all day, I only went out at 7AM to walk to the supermarket, when it was still in the low twenties. Even our bedroom (top floor) was still doable - it was 26 deg. C when we turned in. We lived in Singapore and that was the typical setting of our aircon there.


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## Luchesi

Art Rock said:


> Glad to see temperatures slowly returning to more normal values. It was not too bad inside yesterday, even though outside hit 37 deg. C (my wife stayed inside all day, I only went out at 7AM to walk to the supermarket, when it was still in the low twenties. Even our bedroom (top floor) was still doable - it was 26 deg. C when we turned in. We lived in Singapore and that was the typical setting of our aircon there.


I was going to post this yesterday but I got too busy. Yes, back to normal. The models are assuring us that you won't have hot weather like that now until at least the second week of August. Of course things can change, another small cyclone can form unexpectedly. We'll know why they'll form only 3 or 4 days in advance, because it takes so little disturbance in the flow.


----------



## progmatist

Krummhorn said:


> Pretty much the same thing here in Tucson though a few degrees cooler because of our higher elevation. Still 109° is just too hot for me ... I love the summer thunderstorms and the rain ... We stay inside mostly with the inside temp set at 78°.


Staying inside wasn't always the option it is now. Back when most homes and businesses had swamp cooling. Which doesn't work so well when dew points are high.


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## Krummhorn

progmatist said:


> Staying inside wasn't always the option it is now. Back when most homes and businesses had swamp cooling. Which doesn't work so well when dew points are high.


So true. The house I bought here in 1984 was built with swamp cooler. Had to replace it years later with a MasterCool Evaporative cooler which worked much better .... as long as the humidity levels were low. It was rather sticky during the rainy months of the summer. Residences since then (apartments/homes) have all had central A/C and heat. 

House we bought in 2011 has central A/C and gas furnace for heating. Since we use gas for heating, water heating, cooking and drying clothes we are pretty much a balanced home. One home we had was all electric, cooking, heating, cooling, clothes drying, water heater ... bills were astronimical. Present house has dual pane windows and lots of insulation ... our highest electric bill ever was $265 a couple years ago when we had relentless 117° days for weeks on end.


----------



## progmatist

Krummhorn said:


> So true. The house I bought here in 1984 was built with swamp cooler. Had to replace it years later with a MasterCool Evaporative cooler which worked much better .... as long as the humidity levels were low. It was rather sticky during the rainy months of the summer. Residences since then (apartments/homes) have all had central A/C and heat.
> 
> House we bought in 2011 has central A/C and gas furnace for heating. Since we use gas for heating, water heating, cooking and drying clothes we are pretty much a balanced home. One home we had was all electric, cooking, heating, cooling, clothes drying, water heater ... bills were astronimical. Present house has dual pane windows and lots of insulation ... our highest electric bill ever was $265 a couple years ago when we had relentless 117° days for weeks on end.


The house I grew up in, which my parents bought brand new in 1973 had swamp cooling. A couple of months ago I looked it up on Google maps. It has what looks to be a brand new air conditioning unit on the roof.


----------



## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> The house I grew up in, which my parents bought brand new in 1973 had swamp cooling. A couple of months ago I looked it up on Google maps. It has what looks to be a brand new air conditioning unit on the roof.


I think water can only offer 19 deg F of cooling, under optimum conditions. Something like that. So if it's 115F outside it's no cooler than 96F inside?


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> I think water can only offer 19 deg F of cooling, under optimum conditions. Something like that. So if it's 115F outside it's no cooler than 96F inside?


When it's 115 outside, the interior temp will be around 80 to 82 degrees with a swamp cooler. When the dew point is high, it's more like 85 to 90 with outside temps around 108. Many people with a/c keep their thermostats set at 80 to 82 to save on the electric bill. A setting below 78 would be just plain wasteful. Most businesses keep their thermostats below even that, but they have the a/c tonnage to handle the load. Most also turn the thermostat way up, or off altogether after hours, when nobody is there. A typical residential unit would struggle to maintain an interior temp of 75 when it's 115 outside.


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## Krummhorn

We set our thermostat at 78° during the daytime hours. We bring it down to 76° at dinner time. Our A/C is a 5 ton unit ... about 1 ton rating higher than what is minimally required. It does quite well ... and we have it checked once a year by a professional company. For sleeping we bring it down to 73° around 11pm.


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## Luchesi

Krummhorn said:


> We set our thermostat at 78° during the daytime hours. We bring it down to 76° at dinner time. Our A/C is a 5 ton unit ... about 1 ton rating higher than what is minimally required. It does quite well ... and we have it checked once a year by a professional company. For sleeping we bring it down to 73° around 11pm.


I lived in a with AC and then into a house with swamp coolers and 5 window units (AC). Now I'm in a house again with AC, so I'm wondering what needs to be checked?, what goes wrong with these central AC units? 

My friend's AC went out and the house was over 90F for a week (waiting for parts). She gave up and spent the money for many nights in a motel. I'm trying to avoid that.


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## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> I lived in a with AC and then into a house with swamp coolers and 5 window units (AC). Now I'm in a house again with AC, so I'm wondering what needs to be checked?, what goes wrong with these central AC units?
> 
> My friend's AC went out and the house was over 90F for a week (waiting for parts). She gave up and spent the money for many nights in a motel. I'm trying to avoid that.


First and foremost, the refrigerant level should be regularly checked. A low level can cause the compressor, which circulates the refrigerant to overheat. Among the most common parts to fail are the capacitors. If you don't know what a capacitor is, it's essentially a battery. There are 2 in an a/c unit. 1 to jump start the compressor, and the other jump starts the fan which forces air through the heat exchanging coil. A capacitor about to fail can put undue stress on the compressor, which is very bad, or the fan motor. When a capacitor fails, the compressor or fan will fail to start altogether. Other common parts to fail are the motors driving the fans for both the interior, and exterior heat exchanging coils. The exterior heat exchanging coil should be cleaned periodically. When dirt accumulates in the fins, it blocks airflow which reduces its efficiency.


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## pianozach

A friend in *Alaska* had been complaining about the wildfires, smoke, and heat for the last couple of weeks.

Funny, though, that *Siberia* has also been having nonstop and numerous wildfires due to the heat.

Last week most of the *US*, most of *Europe*, and most of the *UK* are having crazy heat.

Now I hear that northern *Greenland's* ice is melting.


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> First and foremost, the refrigerant level should be regularly checked. A low level can cause the compressor, which circulates the refrigerant to overheat. Among the most common parts to fail are the capacitors. If you don't know what a capacitor is, it's essentially a battery. There are 2 in an a/c unit. 1 to jump start the compressor, and the other jump starts the fan which forces air through the heat exchanging coil. A capacitor about to fail can put undue stress on the compressor, which is very bad, or the fan motor. When a capacitor fails, the compressor or fan will fail to start altogether. Other common parts to fail are the motors driving the fans for both the interior, and exterior heat exchanging coils. The exterior heat exchanging coil should be cleaned periodically. When dirt accumulates in the fins, it blocks airflow which reduces its efficiency.


Thanks, that helps me a lot. I like to know what might go wrong. Funny thing, I don't mind paying as much when I know in advance what likely will fail. 

I asked when I last had the contractor over, how much would it be to fix one of my units. He said if it was the compressor, $1400 plus labor. I'm thinking that other problems are mostly just the labor, inexpensive capacitors etc.. Motors would be more.


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## Krummhorn

Luchesi said:


> Thanks, that helps me a lot. I like to know what might go wrong. Funny thing, I don't mind paying as much when I know in advance what likely will fail.
> 
> I asked when I last had the contractor over, how much would it be to fix one of my units. He said if it was the compressor, $1400 plus labor. I'm thinking that other problems are mostly just the labor, inexpensive capacitors etc.. Motors would be more.


One sign that a compressor is about to have problems is the rise in amperage it needs to start and keep running. Our old one was drawing 30 amps on startup and a continuous 18 amps while running ... normal units should be around 4 or 6 amps when running. 

When we initially bought our current house that we now live in we had to have major repairs done to the A/C - Gas furnace equipment. The previous owners seldom, if ever, changed the air filter on the A/C - Furnace intake. They had also installed the unit that sits on top of the furnace upside down because it was the only way it would fit ... and they had to cut it all apart to do that so all corners had duct tape on them ... and the flue to the roof was also not connected. It's a wonder the whole house didn't catch on fire during their occupancy. 

We spent about $2,750 on those repairs and a few years later had to replace the outside condenser unit ... We opted to upgrade to the [then] latest "sear" rating and had a 5 ton unit installed. When our company comes to inspect they check out the refrigerant level and the total operation of the condenser, evaporator and even the furnace so that it will be ready for use during the winter.


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## Luchesi

Krummhorn said:


> One sign that a compressor is about to have problems is the rise in amperage it needs to start and keep running. Our old one was drawing 30 amps on startup and a continuous 18 amps while running ... normal units should be around 4 or 6 amps when running.
> 
> When we initially bought our current house that we now live in we had to have major repairs done to the A/C - Gas furnace equipment. The previous owners seldom, if ever, changed the air filter on the A/C - Furnace intake. They had also installed the unit that sits on top of the furnace upside down because it was the only way it would fit ... and they had to cut it all apart to do that so all corners had duct tape on them ... and the flue to the roof was also not connected. It's a wonder the whole house didn't catch on fire during their occupancy.
> 
> We spent about $2,750 on those repairs and a few years later had to replace the outside condenser unit ... We opted to upgrade to the [then] latest "sear" rating and had a 5 ton unit installed. When our company comes to inspect they check out the refrigerant level and the total operation of the condenser, evaporator and even the furnace so that it will be ready for use during the winter.


Thanks. Mine has started recently to make more blowing air noise, rumbling and now a slight rattling noise (I can't find anything loose). So it seems to be pulling more amps? That's good to check out, thanks.

Only 2 more months of torrid temperatures here at 4000ft (4.4F per 1000 ft is the lapse rate). 

According to the models, water temperatures won't be warm enough until at least mid August for hurricanes to develop. Depressions (off the coast of Africa and the Caribbean convective activity) are forming in the expected source regions and then dissipating within a few days. But a hurricane will form west of Mexico and move west.


----------



## progmatist

Luchesi said:


> Thanks, that helps me a lot. I like to know what might go wrong. Funny thing, I don't mind paying as much when I know in advance what likely will fail.
> 
> I asked when I last had the contractor over, how much would it be to fix one of my units. He said if it was the compressor, $1400 plus labor. I'm thinking that other problems are mostly just the labor, inexpensive capacitors etc.. Motors would be more.


Replacing the compressor is the most difficult and time consuming of all jobs for an a/c tech. It requires discharging the refrigerant, desoldering the refrigerant lines connected to the compressor, re-soldering the lines to the new compressor, using a vacuum pump to evacuate the air from all refrigerant lines, and recharging the refrigerant. The refrigerant alone could end up costing as much as the new compressor. It would end up being an all day job if all goes well.

Consider yourself lucky the compressor can be replaced at all. R12 refrigerant is no longer available. Old units not using R134a must be completely replaced. And with ongoing supply chain issues, you'd have no choice but to buy more tons than your house needs. That's been the case with some of my neighbors. Having to buy a 3 or 4 ton unit for an 800 square foot townhouse, when 2 tons would be more appropriate.


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## Luchesi

progmatist said:


> Replacing the compressor is the most difficult and time consuming of all jobs for an a/c tech. It requires discharging the refrigerant, desoldering the refrigerant lines connected to the compressor, re-soldering the lines to the new compressor, using a vacuum pump to evacuate the air from all refrigerant lines, and recharging the refrigerant. The refrigerant alone could end up costing as much as the new compressor. It would end up being an all day job if all goes well.
> 
> Consider yourself lucky the compressor can be replaced at all. R12 refrigerant is no longer available. Old units not using R134a must be completely replaced. And with ongoing supply chain issues, you'd have no choice but to buy more tons than your house needs. That's been the case with some of my neighbors. Having to buy a 3 or 4 ton unit for an 800 square foot townhouse, when 2 tons would be more appropriate.


Thanks, now I have some important questions for my AC guy, before the issues start. He's knowledgeable and fair-minded.

That hurricane from Mexico is now expected to be wide enough to add to the monsoonal moisture in Arizona. Expected to form on the July 29th. It will reach 800 miles off the coast of S. California by the 6th, and it will dissipate there.
It’s all very tentative right now. We’ll see how well the various models do with this one. The modelers have more experience with Atlantic hurricanes.
For many subtle and difficult to pin down reasons (wind shear and convergent zone differences), hurricanes form in the warm convective conditions west of Panama earlier than they begin forming in the Atlantic.


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## progmatist

Correction: R12 was and R134a is an automotive refrigerant. R22 was and R410a is a residential and commercial refrigerant.


----------



## Nate Miller

fair summer day here in south-central Pennsylvania. Its maybe 83F, cloudy, kinda humid but not ghastly at all, and it will probably rain here and there this evening

all in all a rather mild day for July 27...and most importantly, the corn is looking pretty good around here


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## Luchesi

Roger Knox said:


> So if positive vorticity causes cloudiness, do constant blue skies result from negative vorticity? Sincerely I hope you get some relief in the form of dihydrogen monoxide (H20).
> 
> Blue Skies was my Dad's favorite song. I played it at his funeral.


Yes, Irving was such a special homespun genius (as I've gotten older I appreciate his songs more and more).

Yes, negative vorticity advection (NVA) will allow clouds to dissipate very predictively. 

Right now I can't think of a clearing situation that doesn't involve NVA (extra tropical). 

I can't understand why vorticity isn't taught in grade school. It is simple enough and it is so helpful for the understanding.


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## starthrower

A disappointing September here in central NY with cooler than normal temps and too much rain.


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## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> A disappointing September here in central NY with cooler than normal temps and too much rain.


I was reading the forecast discussion for your area and they mention how lake-effect rain is triggered by a slight shift in the flow (to be more in line with the rotational vector at your latitude). With the instability of the favorable temperature contrast across the Lakes right now. Sounds like these conditions have persisted for the month, I haven't watched it. 

The weather down here has seemed cooler than 'normal' too. Yours is a normal cool pattern, but I think AGW is new cooling for us, because it builds the high pressure, and it speeds up the flow so that the heat lows are disrupted. This is cooling that humans talk about, it's not much actual cooling to all the layers, because the heat moves up and down and around in the complicated interactions. It was unbearable heat in the South after we cooled down here (in June) in the SouthWest. We were cool, they were hot, but it's not as simple as that sounds..


----------



## Luchesi

The cold season has finally arrived across the States (the sun is well south of the equator allowing the waves generated by rotation to dip down on us). We're under a large cold wave which moves along at about 40 kph and so it should be replaced with a warm wave in that many days (how many days to cross 3/4 of the continent at 40 kph?). Which means a warmer December than average when it gets into position, and if it can remain strong. The models say the middle of December mild, then cold again. 

As humans, we have a natural sense (intelligence) about winter patterns. It's ingrained. We 'know' that weather comes in waves, but we don't know why, or when (i.e. where we are in the repeating pattern).


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## Chat Noir

It's -0.3°C here and will be even colder overnight. I have no heating on. On Tuesday I purchased 'thermal jogging pants'. Whilst I wouldn't wear these in public, they are in fact very effective and hold in much heat. I do also have two thin merino wool jumpers on. None of it feels bulky.

Obviously it's not 'ideal', but it's okay. When I was watching the news on the computer I had my hands in the front pocket of a 'hoodie' and everything is pretty much warm. No heating energy being used. Other people in the house aren't finding it quite as satisfactory as I do. When it hits 5 below I might also start to panic.

Today though was sunny and quite bright.


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## Luchesi

Chat Noir said:


> It's -0.3°C here and will be even colder overnight. I have no heating on. On Tuesday I purchased 'thermal jogging pants'. Whilst I wouldn't wear these in public, they are in fact very effective and hold in much heat. I do also have two thin merino wool jumpers on. None of it feels bulky.
> 
> Obviously it's not 'ideal', but it's okay. When I was watching the news on the computer I had my hands in the front pocket of a 'hoodie' and everything is pretty much warm. No heating energy being used. Other people in the house aren't finding it quite as satisfactory as I do. When it hits 5 below I might also start to panic.
> 
> Today though was sunny and quite bright.


Shouldn’t we have warmer winters with the planet warming a few degrees per century? I don't think so.


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## Nate Miller

this morning was 19F. Probably the coldest night since last February. Here in southern Pennsylvania, it been unusually warm overnight this fall. The leaves stayed green and on the trees later then usual, and my rose bushes actually bloomed again in November. I even saw turtles out sunning themselves on a log just a few days ago

There were still lily pads on my lake yesterday, but this morning they are frozen into the ice. I've never seen that before, and I've lived at this spot for over 20 years now

I sure hope they sink soon. If they are still around to get frozen into the ice in January its going to screw up the ice for hockey


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## Chat Noir

Luchesi said:


> Shouldn’t we have warmer winters with the planet warming a few degrees per century? I don't think so.


In general I'd say they are warmer. The last solidly cold winter I experienced was in 2010, when it snowed in that 'winter wonderland' style which lingers for weeks. Since then it's been less severe and takes a while to get really cold. Yesterday here it was around 10-12°C in the daytime, which is almost unprecedented for December in northern Europe. And yet today? 2°C.  It's this wide variability which is most characteristic now. Last Christmas was the warmest I've ever known in my lifetime.


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## Chat Noir

Nate Miller said:


> The leaves stayed green and on the trees later then usual, and my rose bushes actually bloomed again in November.


This is what I had. Roses still blooming in mid-November, in northern Europe! All the leaves on the hyacinth stayed attached and just got drenched by the rain.


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## Nate Miller

its funny how the weather works. Out west where my mom and dad are they have had a blizzard already and its been winter for real. For us, alot of the tropical systems worked their way up the coast and brought all the warm, wet air with them.

Its funny how the trees know when to keep thier leaves and when to drop them. I used to think it all went by daylight, but this year the trees kept their leaves green late. Very late.

we're about due for a hard winter, though. I sorta hope we go into the deep freeze this year. I got my skates sharpened and replaced the net in my hockey goal


----------



## Luchesi

Nate Miller said:


> its funny how the weather works. Out west where my mom and dad are they have had a blizzard already and its been winter for real. For us, alot of the tropical systems worked their way up the coast and brought all the warm, wet air with them.
> 
> Its funny how the trees know when to keep thier leaves and when to drop them. I used to think it all went by daylight, but this year the trees kept their leaves green late. Very late.
> 
> we're about due for a hard winter, though. I sorta hope we go into the deep freeze this year. I got my skates sharpened and replaced the net in my hockey goal


We still have leaves on our trees this far south (Mexican border). Nutrients in leaves need to be re-absorbed before fluids in the trees slow down and stop due to low temperatures. Length of day and light levels also play a part, besides freezing. Since it's complicated each species is slightly different, I assume.

The first signs of AGW shocked us down here after the winter of 2011. February of 2011 brought record-breaking cold, killing 50 year old palm trees. Ever since, the warming has shifted the huge planetary waves about 100 miles to the east sparing us the cold of the dreaded Alberta Clipper. There seems to be no going back.. it's been that many years. I expect that we'll be hit again, maybe once a decade, because of the increasing energy available for such shifts. No surprises so far this season.


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## Chat Noir

It's a cold one tonight. Just hit -7°C and still I resisted turning on the heating. I'm using a little quilt and it's keeping the worst at bay. By 2am it'll be -8°C.


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## JessieJim

Today is sunny and 35F, but the sun is still warming.


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## starthrower

The fast moving cold front just hit us like a punch in the gut! Temps will be dropping from 45 degrees F. to about 9 degrees over night. Winds are whipping around at 40ph.


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## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> The fast moving cold front just hit us like a punch in the gut! Temps will be dropping from 45 degrees F. to about 9 degrees over night. Winds are whipping around at 40ph.


Brutal. Stay safe.
One of the questions about AGW is what will future winters have in store for us. The polar night currently reaches -50 or -60 annually (by late January). A few degrees warmer up there (both poles) and warmer temperatures than now in the south? Not much relief, unless I'm missing some important change in the unstoppable winter sequence. More water vapor in the air than now?

But, otherwise, i think about how much energy 2°C planetwide adds to the planet's large-scale waves and individual weather systems. Quickly changing regional climates, whipsawing them back and forth. It's hard to imagine.


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## starthrower

Fortunately, the heavy winds didn't last. The weather system is moving so fast that things have settled down. We now have some lighter gusts and a bit of blustery snow. Should be all over with by morning.


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## starthrower

It's a tragedy to see what's happening down the road in Buffalo, NY. Several dozen people dead but the city leadership was ill prepared to deal with the storm which shouldn't happen in an area known for severe weather.


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## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> It's a tragedy to see what's happening down the road in Buffalo, NY. Several dozen people dead but the city leadership was ill prepared to deal with the storm which shouldn't happen in an area known for severe weather.


I have the feeling that it's going to get very cold for you and Toronto by the middle of January.

Well, it's not a feeling, it's the way the waves are setting up.


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## starthrower

Luchesi said:


> I have the feeling that it's going to get very cold for you and Toronto by the middle of January.
> 
> Well, it's not a feeling, it's the way the waves are setting up.


It's supposed to be cold in January in NY, and Canada. It's the dead of winter up north. 60 degrees the past two days is not normal.


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## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> It's supposed to be cold in January in NY, and Canada. It's the dead of winter up north. 60 degrees the past two days is not normal.


By the 6th of January a weak ridge will hold sway over the Conus, but by the next week two large planetary waves will speed across and replace it. These will release the flood gates of arctic air (and pull it all down on you), which has been cooling in the dark for months.


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## Chat Noir

This is perhaps the warmest Christmas period I've ever experienced. Last night (and evening) there was a warm wind blowing and after the rain dried up by 4pm people were sitting outside having a drink. Without coat, scarf etc. It's unreal. Not exactly an Australian-style Christmas, but far from the Christmases I, and most of us, grew up with.


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## starthrower

Luchesi said:


> By the 6th of January a weak ridge will hold sway over the Conus, but by the next week two large planetary waves will speed across and replace it. These will release the flood gates of arctic air (and pull it all down on you), which has been cooling in the dark for months.


Not according to the weather forecast I'm reading. It calls for fairly mild temperatures over the next ten days. 35-40 degrees F.


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## Luchesi

Chat Noir said:


> This is perhaps the warmest Christmas period I've ever experienced. Last night (and evening) there was a warm wind blowing and after the rain dried up by 4pm people were sitting outside having a drink. Without coat, scarf etc. It's unreal. Not exactly an Australian-style Christmas, but far from the Christmases I, and most of us, grew up with.


There were unlikely coincidences which resulted in a strong southerly flow from the Atlantic SW of Spain. Interesting. It's moving at 50 kph so it won't last long. A few days total.


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## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> Not according to the weather forecast I'm reading. It calls for fairly mild temperatures over the next ten days. 35-40 degrees F.


It will clobber you on Thursday the 12th. 

This early in the polar vortex season the models need to be tweaked, but if this scenario doesn't pan out then there's a big problem with the data north of the polar jet. 'Unlikely after all these years of good results..


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## starthrower

Luchesi said:


> It will clobber you on Thursday the 12th.


No worries. I've lived here all my life and the past six years are nothing compared to the brutal winters of the 60s thru the early 2000s.


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## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> No worries. I've lived here all my life and the past six years are nothing compared to the brutal winters of the 60s thru the early 2000s.


I grew up in Westchester. I remember 3 or 4 winters in which we could build snow forts. lol 'Nothing compared to northern NY. 
How do you protect from your pipes from freezing? They're deep in the ground? 

google - Antifreeze in heating systems can help to reduce the potential of frozen or cracked pipes.


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## Chat Noir

Luchesi said:


> There were unlikely coincidences which resulted in a strong southerly flow from the Atlantic SW of Spain. Interesting. It's moving at 50 kph so it won't last long. A few days total.


This is correct, yet the weather forecast long-term is still for rainy weather with above zero temperatures. Up to 80% chance of long-term rain, which is a nuisance. Still low wind expectations and the chance of frost-type temperatures through January is put at 5%!


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## starthrower

Luchesi said:


> I grew up in Westchester. I remember 3 or 4 winters in which we could build snow forts. lol 'Nothing compared to northern NY.
> How do you protect from your pipes from freezing? They're deep in the ground?
> 
> google - Antifreeze in heating systems can help to reduce the potential of frozen or cracked pipes.


Pipes are all buried at least four feet deep. My main water pipe coming into the house from the street burst about ten years ago in the middle of January. My front yard turned into a pond. Luckily some people I know put me in touch with a plumber who does big jobs like repairing underground pipes. He came with his backhoe and drilling machine and replaced the ancient galvanized pipe with copper. It improved my water pressure too.


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## Luchesi

Chat Noir said:


> This is correct, yet the weather forecast long-term is still for rainy weather with above zero temperatures. Up to 80% chance of long-term rain, which is a nuisance. Still low wind expectations and the chance of frost-type temperatures through January is put at 5%!


Interesting. Yes. after the warm flow switches from southwest to more northwesterly the cooler air will return. It's the same trough of low pressure. And the air parcels under it with still spin in harmony with the planet's counterclockwise rotation, so the excess energy will lift the H2O and precipitate on you. Light to moderate at times. Normal breeziness.


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## Chat Noir

It's only 6th of Jan and as we know the weather does what it wants, but right now the wind calmed down as of yesterday and it has been sunny most of the day and 11°C. A mild January has occurred many times though I don't really remember it ever being in double figures, but I've not looked at the records. Usually the pain comes at the end of January with 'freak snowfall' in February. Like last year when it froze some of my plants after lots of rainfall had waterlogged everything. 
However... as has been observed for the last few years there are things budding in January which really never did before. Some trees and plants.


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## Nate Miller

it has been warm for January here in southern Pennsylvania. The week of Christmas was the coldest week I can remember for 4 or 5 years. I burned more wood (I heat with a wood burning stove) that week than I had the whole of November and December. Now its been above freezing at night even for 6 days. I built a fire but didn't light it so that if I got chilly, I could just set a match to it. That was 6 days ago, but I'm sure I'll be lighting it off tonight.

I think we are in for a mild January after that blast of artic air over Christmas. But mild winter months dont mean anything, that's how winter goes. I've seen enough of them now that I can enjoy some mild weather when we're lucky enough to get it


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## Luchesi

Nate Miller said:


> it has been warm for January here in southern Pennsylvania. The week of Christmas was the coldest week I can remember for 4 or 5 years. I burned more wood (I heat with a wood burning stove) that week than I had the whole of November and December. Now its been above freezing at night even for 6 days. I built a fire but didn't light it so that if I got chilly, I could just set a match to it. That was 6 days ago, but I'm sure I'll be lighting it off tonight.
> 
> I think we are in for a mild January after that blast of artic air over Christmas. But mild winter months dont mean anything, that's how winter goes. I've seen enough of them now that I can enjoy some mild weather when we're lucky enough to get it


You'll get a terrible blast on the 11th and the 21st.


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