# Our Oil-Constrained Future



## Ralfy (Jul 19, 2010)

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/our-oil-constrained-future

Put simply, global economic growth is constrained by oil production, which means we should experience one economic crisis after another. And when oil productions starts dropping....


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## Ravellian (Aug 17, 2009)

Well then, let's find some ****ing alternative energy sources.


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## starthrower (Dec 11, 2010)

Ralfy said:


> http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/our-oil-constrained-future
> 
> Put simply, global economic growth is constrained by oil production, which means we should experience one economic crisis after another. And when oil productions starts dropping....


"James Hamilton, a University of California-San Diego economics professor who's studied the economics of oil demand deeply, points out that 10 of the 11 recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by an increase in oil prices-and even small increases in oil prices can have a surprisingly big impact on economic growth."

That's the way I see it. I don't see how we can grow a truly healthy economy unless people are paid living wages, NAFTA is repealed, and antitrust laws are enforced?

Also, the inertia concerning new energy technologies is only going to prolong the agony. As long as oil is affordable and people can scrape by, we'll be stuck in 20th century mode. Maybe eight dollar a gallon gas is what it'll take to move forward?

These are just my layman's opinions, so I'd like to hear from you more educated folks.


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## Kopachris (May 31, 2010)

$8/gallon won't be high enough. Gas prices have been up way past $8 (USD) in Europe, but that didn't stop anyone from buying it.


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## Art Rock (Nov 28, 2009)

Reducing consumption would help a lot to start with, especially in the US (and Canada for that matter).

US - population 313 million, oil consumption 18,7 million barrels/day
European Union - population 492 million, oil consumption 13,6 million barrels/day
Data: CIA, the world factbook.

Smaller and far more fuel efficient cars is the way to go - world wide.

On the positive side, fuel from natural gas and coals is commercially viable now and huge plants to that effect are being operated in the Middle East and China.


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## starthrower (Dec 11, 2010)

Coal seems like a dead end. Such a dirty fuel source. Then there's the hydrofracking controversy concerning natural gas exploration. This is becoming quite a heated debate here in the northeast. PA and NY.


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## Aramis (Mar 1, 2009)

Let's switch back from nuclear bombs and tanks to swords and armors and from oil and cars to horses and carriages so the war won't consume the world, just people and the transport won't consume the world, just the distance.


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## Klavierspieler (Jul 16, 2011)

Aramis said:


> Let's switch back from nuclear bombs and tanks to swords and armors and from oil and cars to horses and carriages so the war won't consume the world, just people and the transport won't consume the world, just the distance.


But then we would have to switch from the internet back to the pony express and we wouldn't have TC!


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## Aramis (Mar 1, 2009)

Klavierspieler said:


> But then we would have to switch from the internet back to the pony express and we wouldn't have TC!


We would have PC - Pony Classical. A huge wooden wall with papers brought by pony post and sticked on it in proper order. Every post would be much more precious and received with great joy if it would take days of waiting and miles of traveling for the pony for you to read it.


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## Kopachris (May 31, 2010)

There are also ways to convert gas-powered cars to hydrogen fairly easily, and the hydrogen can be manufactured at home through electrolysis. The kit is kind of expensive ($10,000), but includes the conversion kit for the vehicle, metal hydride tanks to store the hydrogen, and a solar or wind-powered hydrogen manufacturing station: http://www.switch2hydrogen.com/

How well it works in high-performance sports cars, though, is unknown to me.


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## mmsbls (Mar 6, 2011)

Kopachris said:


> There are also ways to convert gas-powered cars to hydrogen fairly easily, and the hydrogen can be manufactured at home through electrolysis. The kit is kind of expensive ($10,000), but includes the conversion kit for the vehicle, metal hydride tanks to store the hydrogen, and a solar or wind-powered hydrogen manufacturing station: http://www.switch2hydrogen.com/
> 
> How well it works in high-performance sports cars, though, is unknown to me.


Conversion kits for hydrogen or battery electric vehicles are too expensive, and hydrogen produced in anything other than large facilities is very expensive. Very few people will follow this route. However, estimates by people who study fuel cell and hydrogen economics actually show that the cost to own and operate a fully commercial fuel cell vehicle (when 100,000's are sold a year) should be less than the cost for a conventional vehicle. Estimates for the cost of hydrogen fuel are about half the cost of gasoline in $/km (or mile) traveled.

What's _very_ interesting is that almost every major car manufacturer has released either a commercial battery electric or a plug-in hybrid (battery hybrid with a larger battery pack) vehicle in the past year or two. Apparently, they either believe that these vehicles will be economically viable in the relatively near future or that they can't afford to fall behind the learning curve on electric vehicle technology. I'm skeptical that full battery electrics will be economically viable in 5-10 years or so, but I'd love to be proved wrong. I have higher hopes for plug-in hybrids, but battery cost must fall significantly.

Tesla motors has a commercial battery electric vehicle that goes 0-60 in 3.7 seconds - much faster than most Porsche vehicles. I've ridden in the vehicle, and the acceleration is extremely smooth (have to love electric drivelines) and feels like a rocket. It's a steal at $109,000. In theory fuel cell vehicles should be able to perform in a similar fashion since the power electronics (driveline) could be essentially the same.

Tomorrow's vehicle is _most definitely_ not your present vehicle. The real question is how soon a significant transformation will take place.


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## Kopachris (May 31, 2010)

Umm... You can make hydrogen at home. For free. The conversion kit ($10,000 is pretty expensive, but it's one-time only) includes a solar/wind-powered hydrogen manufacturing station--just add water. What I posted isn't a hydrogen fuel cell system--there are no major changes to the car's engine, so it can still run on gasoline at any time.

Also, Porsche is about handling, not acceleration. A better comparison would be to a Ferrari or Lamborghini.


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## Almaviva (Aug 13, 2010)

Don't expect American leadership in this field, because as long as oil interests dominate congressional lobbies, alternative sources of energy will get little support. And the brainwashing will continue. Republicans hate alternative energy, they think it's for tree-huggers and sissies - what the heck, they don't even believe in global warming. _Drill Baby Drill_ is the Republican mantra (if seems a lot more _macho_ than fuel cells and solar power), and as long as cheap talking points like these will continue to fire up the ignorant masses, politicians seeking re-election will continue to use them. I'm hoping that more rational countries will take the lead.


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## science (Oct 14, 2010)

_Ruling America_ is a good book. Flawed, but it does show something important: that the ruling cliques in American history have risen and fallen, and the current clique is an alliance of the oil and defense industries.

I think cracks are appearing in their edifice. One is the drive for alternative energy. Another is the willingness to cut defense rather than Medicare or Social Security. Another is the weakening of the Christian right, their main source of votes.

Perry appears to be their last gasp. Whether he loses in 2012 or 2016, they go down with him. I think I'd rather he win in 2012 so that the backlash can get good and ready to deliver a terminal blow. Perry will scare the middle to Obama, and Obama might win, and then the Tea Party will rage, rage against the dying of the light. Rather have Perry usher them gently into that good night, and then, down tumbles baby, cradle and all.

The long-term future of the GOP is people like Romney and Huntsman. They are still owned, but more by banks and tech than oil.


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## starthrower (Dec 11, 2010)

Perry is pathetic, but so is the state of affairs. Unfortunately, you're probably right. Things will get worse before they get better.


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## Almaviva (Aug 13, 2010)

starthrower said:


> Perry is pathetic, but so is the state of affairs. Unfortunately, you're probably right. Things will get worse before they get better.


 Things will get worse before they get worse.


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## starthrower (Dec 11, 2010)

I just thought I'd temper my response with a glimmer of hope! I don't want to despair too much on a Sunday morning.


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## starthrower (Dec 11, 2010)

...besides, if we elect Michele Bachmann she has promised to bring back 2 dollar a gallon gas! Apparently this will coincide with a catastrophic world wide depression where most people will be trying scrape together two bucks for beans and white bread, much less for gasoline to drive to the job they no longer have.


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## Almaviva (Aug 13, 2010)

starthrower said:


> I just thought I'd temper my response with a glimmer of hope! I don't want to despair too much on a Sunday morning.


 I'm passed this point. I'm waiting for tough times ahead. Since I'm 54 and in good financial shape (no debts, two-income family with only two kids already finishing up their education or getting close to it), I won't suffer too much, but I pity my kids, and I kind of lost my appetite for grandchildren.


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## science (Oct 14, 2010)

Mostly obvious, but short and worth sharing.


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## starthrower (Dec 11, 2010)

Almaviva said:


> I'm passed this point. I'm waiting for tough times ahead. Since I'm 54 and in good financial shape (no debts, two-income family with only two kids already finishing up their education or getting close to it), I won't suffer too much, but I pity my kids, and I kind of lost my appetite for grandchildren.


Remember this lone voice crying in the wilderness as media heads mocked him?
Here he stood predicting our present economic situation between the man who
proposed NAFTA, and the then future democratic president who sealed our fate.


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