# How serious is the new coronavirus?



## KenOC

It's hard to tell how serious the new coronavirus is, but China is taking it seriously. Wuhan, a city of 11 million, is shut down with no public transportation and a complete quarantine - no in or out. A second city, Huanggang with about 7 million people, will be similarly shut down -- that may have happened already. Food stores in Wuhan are mostly empty now, so it's hard to see how people can survive quarantine for long.

BBC has a long write-up on the situation from a Chinese doctor in Wuhan. It starts: "It's my first epidemic. The first time we heard about coronavirus was 31 December, when there were a few cases. But in the last two weeks, there has been an alarming rate of spread. I am scared because this is a new virus and the figures are alarming.

"The hospitals have been flooding with patients, there are thousands, I haven't seen so many before. They have to wait for hours before they see a doctor - you can imagine their panic."

The doctor goes on to discuss the disease's symptoms, incubation period, infections of medical staff, and so forth. Very interesting reading. The article can be found *here*.


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## KenOC

Gonna bump this since things are developing. *BBC reports*, "As millions go home for the holidays, travel restrictions have been expanded to 13 cities - home to more than 36 million people - in Hubei province, the centre of the outbreak. There are currently 830 confirmed cases in China, 26 of whom have died.

The BBC adds some bad news: "We have a crucial new piece of information - people with no symptoms of infection may be able to spread the virus. Scientists in China have published detailed information, in the Lancet medical journal, on the first cases in the country."


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## DaveM

I think officials in the U.S. are more concerned than they’re letting on. This is the same virus family, coronavirus, that was responsible for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). These are particularly contagious bugs and nobody is resistant to them the way they might be to influenza.

Anybody planning a trip to China on Air China?


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## Jacck

given how rapidly it is spreading I guess it could be dangerous. If it has a morality of 0.5% (just guessing) and it became a pandemic, then a lot of people could die. Incidentally, I was in Beijing during the SARS epidemic. Everyone in China was wearing masks just like now.


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## schigolch

I think is deadly serious.

The Chinese authorities are trying to control the outbreak, but probably they are at least one month late from the moment when the actions being taken could have been effective. Now we are facing a crisis in China and, most probably, in every country in the world a few weeks from now.

The mortality rate of the new virus is said to be around 3%, clearly under SARS (around 10%) and MERS (around 35%). Also, it was said that it's harder to transmit than SARS.

However, the facts are telling a different story. In several months, SARS infected around 8,000 people, and killed around 800 of them. In just a few weeks, the new Wutan virus has infected almost 1,500 people, and caused 41 deaths... but with more than 200 patients already in critical condition, and only about 40 people that are confirmed to be healed... The potential for mortality to be well above 3% is there, as well as the rate that the virus is infecting new people, compared to SARS rate.


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## Jacck

Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. Their simulation showed it could kill 65 million people.
https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1


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## Room2201974

In the late 70's I went to Mexico and caught the Corona® virus, so this is nothing new.


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## Manxfeeder

Room2201974 said:


> In the late 70's I went to Mexico and caught the Corona® virus, so this is nothing new.


That you're still here to tell about it, that's strangely reassuring.


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## CnC Bartok

������ Happy Chinese New Year


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## Bwv 1080

It appears to be far more contagious than SARS but also far less lethal. By way of comparison, flu killed 80,000 people in the US in 2018


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## Becca

If you want updates on the current state of medicine there is no better place to check than TC.


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## KenOC

The new virus may be more lethal than is currently reported. A previous post gives 1,500 currently known cases with 41 deaths and over 200 in critical condition. If, say, 25% of those in critical condition die, that’s ~90 deaths or a death rate of 6%, about double the current estimate of 3%. Of course that’s speculation.

A vaccine is unlikely anytime soon. Even now, years later, there are still no vaccines for SARS or MERS.

Added from a BBC report from scientists at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in the UK: "Their calculations estimate each infected person is passing it onto, on average, 2.5 other people. The centre praised the efforts of the Chinese authorities, but said transmission of the virus needed to be cut by 60% in order to get on top of the outbreak."

Added again: A few hours after the previous estimates, China reports 1,975 confirmed cases and 56 deaths.

Still a blip of course: "CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from flu."


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## schigolch

An article in The Lancet about 41 patients monitorized by the doctors since the beginning of the outbreak:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

Mortality rate among these 41 patients is 15%, a figure that is much more in line than the original 3% with the facts that the Chinese authorities are sharing, and higher than SARS's. Unfortunately, the infection rate is mounting.


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## DaveM

KenOC said:


> The new virus may be more lethal than is currently reported. A previous post gives 1,500 currently known cases with 41 deaths and over 200 in critical condition. If, say, 25% of those in critical condition die, that's ~90 deaths or a death rate of 6%, about double the current estimate of 3%. Of course that's speculation.
> 
> A vaccine is unlikely anytime soon. Even now, years later, there are still no vaccines for SARS or MERS.
> 
> Added from a BBC report from scientists at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in the UK: "Their calculations estimate each infected person is passing it onto, on average, 2.5 other people. The centre praised the efforts of the Chinese authorities, but said transmission of the virus needed to be cut by 60% in order to get on top of the outbreak."
> 
> Added again: A few hours after the previous estimates, China reports 1,975 confirmed cases and 56 deaths.
> 
> Still a blip of course: "CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from flu."


IMO, these reports indicate the sort of exponential increase of confirmed cases and spread to other countries that rises to the beginning of a major epidemic. Besides it's lethal capability that I believe is worse than flu, the biggest risk is in the fact that people without symptoms can transmit to others.


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## DaveM

We attended a play last night and prior to the performance, a spokesman came out and announced that a major Beijing Chinese dance troupe, scheduled to perform in the next two weeks, may not be able to come to the U.S. because of the coronavirus outbreak.


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## Guest

KenOC said:


> It's hard to tell how serious the new coronavirus is [...]


I believe there have been *12,000 - 61,000* 'flu-related deaths annually since 2010. Have those figures generated newspaper headlines? No, I don't think so. Keep off the panic button, Ken !!


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## Jacck

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ad-bodies-left-unattended-Wuhan-hospital.html
the Chinese also have a tendency to underreport all negative incidents. The actual situation might be even worse than reported
I wonder why the WHO does not issue an emergency and they do not stop all flights in and out of china


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## CnC Bartok

Jacck said:


> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ad-bodies-left-unattended-Wuhan-hospital.html
> the Chinese also have a tendency to underreport all negative incidents. The actual situation might be even worse than reported
> I wonder why the WHO does not issue an emergency and they do not stop all flights in and out of china


You may well be right. However, in this instance, it seems to me that the Chinese authorities are bring remarkably open about the virus and its spread. Makes a change......

On this occasion I would rather believe the grey men in suits in Beijing than the Daily Mail, which is a hideous, bigoted, xenophobic rag, and the ink runs, so you can't even use it as toilet paper. :tiphat:


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## starthrower

Bwv 1080 said:


> It appears to be far more contagious than SARS but also far less lethal. By way of comparison, flu killed 80,000 people in the US in 2018


Why isn't the media stirring up panic over the flu? 80,000 deaths is quite a lot. I worry about this Chinese virus about as much as I contemplate getting struck by lightning.


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## Jacck

starthrower said:


> Why isn't the media stirring up panic over the flu? 80,000 deaths is quite a lot. I worry about this Chinese virus about as much as I contemplate getting struck by lightning.


you will worry more if it actually comes near you
Spanish Flu: a warning from history


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## KenOC

TalkingHead said:


> I believe there have been *12,000 - 61,000* 'flu-related deaths annually since 2010. Have those figures generated newspaper headlines? No, I don't think so. Keep off the panic button, Ken !!


See my post #12, at the end.

BTW the third case in the US has just been confirmed...right here in the OC!


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## starthrower

> you will worry more if it actually comes near you


I've already had the flu back in 2015. I was not fun. I felt like death but could only afford to stay home from work for a week. It took about five weeks to get over it completely. China doesn't give a damn about its citizens so maybe that's why they were slow to react. I don't know? I haven't read about it. We have a sociopath for president who's going to make a lot of people sick if he has his way with the environment.


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## Guest

KenOC said:


> *See my post #12, at the end.
> *
> BTW the third case in the US has just been confirmed...right here in the OC!


Right you are. 
I didn't read further than your OP as I was called away to deal with some religious nonsense on another thread.


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## KenOC

Update from the BBC: China now has 2,744 confirmed cases with more than 300 critical and 80 deaths. 41 cases are reported abroad, including five in the US, two new today in Los Angeles and Arizona. All are people who have travelled in, live in, or are returning from Wuhan. No fatalities outside China so far.


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## KenOC

starthrower said:


> ...China doesn't give a damn about its citizens so maybe that's why they were slow to react.


You may want to check statistics on infant mortality, life expectancy, literacy rates, and the like before the Communist party came into power in 1949 versus after.


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## schigolch

A report from a trip to the hospital that Wuhan builds in 10 days

The works of the new health center, which will assist a thousand people infected with the coronavirus, "progress even faster than expected".

This is good news, the Chinese had a very good experience with the hospital they built to manage only SARS cases (they were able to curb the mortality rate from the general average of close to 10%, to little more than 1% for patients treated in the hospital. Let's hope this is also the case now.


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## Guest

The population of China is 1.38 billion people. That's a lot of people. And those who are catching the Coronavirus are young and otherwise healthy people. In the case of flu it's almost invariably people who are older or who are otherwise compromised in health who succumb to that disease. Mass vaccinations for influenza have reduced deaths; the trouble is that influenza carries multiple strains and continually morphs, defying eradication. 

At this time Australian researchers are rushing to find a vaccination for Coronavirus and last I heard (last week) they expected that this would take approximately 6 months. Meantime, tourism from China is a huge part of our GDP and the disease is being taken extremely seriously. Tomorrow we expect to see the stock market take a severe battering from this because global growth is so heavily dependent upon a healthy and growing China these days. 

I expect it's all the fault of Climate Change and the Australian Prime Minister in particular!! Just like the fires. Welcome to the era of 'scapegoating'. When Coronavirus has completed its miserable trail of destruction people will be frantically lining up for somebody to blame. It's a timely reminder that we are all at the mercy of this or that pandemic at all times and I cannot escape the feeling it's nature's remedy for unsustainable population.


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## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> The population of China is 1.38 billion people. That's a lot of people. And those who are catching the Coronavirus are young and otherwise healthy people. In the case of flu it's almost invariably people who are older or who are otherwise compromised in health who succumb to that disease. Mass vaccinations for influenza have reduced deaths; the trouble is that influenza carries multiple strains and continually morphs, defying eradication.
> 
> At this time Australian researchers are rushing to find a vaccination for Coronavirus and last I heard (last week) they expected that this would take approximately 6 months. Meantime, tourism from China is a huge part of our GDP and the disease is being taken extremely seriously. Tomorrow we expect to see the stock market take a severe battering from this because global growth is so heavily dependent upon a healthy and growing China these days.
> 
> I expect it's all the fault of Climate Change and the Australian Prime Minister in particular!! Just like the fires. Welcome to the era of 'scapegoating'. When Coronavirus has completed its miserable trail of destruction people will be frantically lining up for somebody to blame. It's a timely reminder that we are all at the mercy of this or that pandemic at all times and I cannot escape the feeling it's nature's remedy for unsustainable population.


The climate change that makes the fires worse in Australia is mostly due to a shift (a few hundred miles to the south) in the favorable Rossby waves. Will they ever shift back during their summer seasons? 'Not likely. It's also happening in the US, and where I live we're benefiting from it here in the Southwest.


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## DaveM

I went to a local drugstore last night for some cold-related medicine. There was a sign on the door, ‘We are sold out of masks!”


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## Guest

DaveM said:


> I went to a local drugstore last night for some cold-related medicine. There was a sign on the door, 'We are sold out of masks!"


You probably felt like you were in the middle of a Congreve play or Wycherley's "The Country Wife"!!


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## Bwv 1080

Jacck said:


> you will worry more if it actually comes near you
> Spanish Flu: a warning from history


Although secondary bacterial infections actually were responsible for most of the deaths, something that would not be an issue in a developed country today

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/196/11/1717/886065


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## Jacck

Bwv 1080 said:


> Although secondary bacterial infections actually were responsible for most of the deaths, something that would not be an issue in a developed country today
> https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/196/11/1717/886065


if I remember correctly, the Spanish flu was somewhat of a mystery, because it killed mostly young people (rather than the elderly, as would be expected). The standard explanation was, that younger people mounted stronger immune response, and the immune response actually killed them. But maybe there is a different answer
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/4/140428-1918-flu-avian-swine-science-health-science/


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## KenOC

Coronavirus rumors: I’m reading that people infected with the virus can carry it for “weeks” without symptoms and may be infectious for at least part of that period. Bad news if true. Also, a Chinese nurse in Wuhan has posted a video saying that there are now 90,000 cases in China. Again, unconfirmed.


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## Jacck

Wuhan citizen plainly tells the #coronavirus situation in Wuhan & seeks help from the world


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## schigolch

I would say that 90,000 people infected is a realistic estimation, within a wide margin of error, according to the information that we have now.

Of course, not all of them will become "cases", as many people (though we still don't know how many) will simply not get sick or will shrug off mild symptoms.


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## KenOC

China now says there are 1,500 confirmed cases in Hubei province and another 1,300 elsewhere in China. Meanwhile, "Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong, said at a press conference Monday that the number of people infected is likely to be much higher than official figures - with as many as 44,000 people possibly infected in Wuhan alone, according to his team's research models." Extend that to all of China and the 90,000 estimate no longer seems so crazy.

BTW Johns Hopkins has a nice *data visualization* of the virus's spread, with counts of confirmed cases and reported deaths. Looks like it's carefully kept up to date.


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## Guest

A report today suggested that in China, at least, it is the elderly who are indeed in the firing line. With approx. 6,000 cases worldwide it remains unclear if those cases are restricted to the elderly or also include younger people. The information changes by the hour.

Anyway, in Australia there is huge pressure on our government to 'do more'. The 21st century is the era in history where the people were no longer responsible for their own health, well-being and decisions and that it's the government which must take the responsibility and 'save' the people. An appalling development of the nanny state mentality to which vote-buying governments have answered the call - fearful of losing votes.

The criticism from shills, the endless demands for money and to 'do more, more, more, more' will surely come at a significant dollar cost to all of our citizens going forward - most of whom have no understanding or care about the fact that there's no such thing as a free lunch. 

We are mired in half a trillion dollars of debt and the (mostly Lefties) keep yelling more, more, more. It will be ugly when this bubble bursts, as it surely must. (People who are retired - or about to retire - have to organize our affairs in such a way that damage can be minimized.)

At the same time we're being told by the world to shut down our biggest export earner (coal) which would pay these debts. The people doing this aren't very intelligent. They think you just print money and everything will be OK (as long as they have their jobs).

In short, I feel the caronavirus is the least of our worries, and the tip of the worries iceberg - all at once.


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## starthrower

Surgical masks are selling out all over the globe. Chinese manufacturers will be working overtime to fill orders.


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## Guest

I see I made a mistake about Australia's debt level; of course it's *half a billion dollars*. I must have made a Freudian slip thinking about the American economy!!


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## Bwv 1080

Christabel said:


> I see I made a mistake about Australia's debt level; of course it's *half a billion dollars*. I must have made a Freudian slip thinking about the American economy!!


Nope, gov debt is half a trillion or about 40% of GDP, better than the US at close to 100%, total Debt to GDP (public and private) for Australia is 238%, slightly below most of the developed world

https://blogs.imf.org/2019/01/02/new-data-on-global-debt/


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## KenOC

A scary thought. Right now 5,578 cases are reported worldwide with 131 deaths. That would seem to imply a death rate of just under 2.5%, a bit lower than an early estimate of 3%.

But wait. I read recently that the disease typically turns serious, if it’s going to, with the development of shortness of breath and pneumonia often occurring about a week after initial diagnosis. So we can assume that deaths to date were among those that had been sick for several days.*

Five days ago, there were 916 reported cases. If we assume that all deaths so far have occurred among those sick for five days or more, then the fatality rate looks like 14% -- or higher, if further deaths occur among those 916 cases. By comparison, the death rate from the Spanish flu and sequalae was in the range of 10% to 20% (Wiki).

Yes, this is a bit rough and ready and there are some uncertainties involved. But I wonder if anybody has comments on this line of thinking.

So, a summary of scarinesses:
- Can be contagious during incubation period with no symptoms (reports, CDC does not confirm)
- Very easy to transmit – each infected person will infect from 1.4 to 5 people (current estimates in Wiki)
- Death rate may be higher than currently estimated.

*For instance, the first cluster of 41 cases in Wuhan was detected just before and after the new year. The first death in Wuhan occurred on January 9.


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## DaveM

The current coronavirus, presently named 2019-nCoV, apparently has some symptoms similar to SARS with 2 exceptions: respiratory symptoms start in the lower respiratory tract and there is no diarrhea. Some of the deaths that occur in past coronavirus infections have been due to an over-reaction of the immune system known as a cytokine-storm. This has occurred in some of the deaths from the present virus, but it has not been determined yet if that is going to be a frequent event in severe cases of 2019-nCoV. Death can also occur due to direct cardiac damage. A combination of antiviral drugs that worked with SARS is being tested, but there appears to be no definitive conclusions yet as to its efficacy on 2019-nCoV.


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## Guest

Bwv 1080 said:


> Nope, gov debt is half a trillion or about 40% of GDP, better than the US at close to 100%, total Debt to GDP (public and private) for Australia is 238%, slightly below most of the developed world
> 
> https://blogs.imf.org/2019/01/02/new-data-on-global-debt/


I found these stats and your comment very confusing.


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## Bwv 1080

Christabel said:


> I found these stats and your comment very confusing.


Not sure where the confusion is - $500 billion sounds like a lot of money, but relative to what? Debt/GDP is analogous to debt/income for a household (but dangerous to overdraw the analogy).


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## Bwv 1080

A good piece

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/china-coronavirus-twitter/605644/


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## schigolch

DATEDEATHSINFECTEDMORTALITY% GROWTH DEAD% GROWTH INFECTED22-ene186003,0%23-ene268303,1%44,4%38,3%24-ene4112873,2%57,7%55,1%25-ene5619752,8%36,6%53,5%26-ene8028502,8%42,9%44,3%27-ene10647972,2%32,5%68,3%28-ene13260572,2%24,5%26,3%

This is more or less the evolution of the outbreak in the last week.

The actual estimation of R0 seems to be around 2,5 (the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single typical infection). We will need to get it down to 1,0 for the outbreak to end.

Chinese expert Zhong Nanshan has predicted that the outbreak should reach a peak in a week or around ten days. Let's hope he is right.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200128-coronavirus-outbreak-could-peak-in-ten-days-chinese-expert


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## DaveM

schigolch said:


> ...Chinese expert Zhong Nanshan has predicted that the outbreak should reach a peak in a week or around ten days.


In his dreams! (Unfortunately).


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## Guest

Our government says our debt is the lowest in the 'developed world' (and my son re-iterated that; he works for our PM as an adviser). I don't care whether it's the lowest or not - I just don't like debt. It's a dead-end, rather like paying rent all your life. And it leaves nowhere to go when things get tough (as they absolutely will).

The people who scream 'gimme more' don't understand that and don't care about it.


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## DaveM

^^^The periodic return to the subject of Australian government debt in a thread about the coronavirus breakout is distracting.


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## Bwv 1080

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/



> Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.
> 
> "The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures," said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.
> 
> If that's the case, she said, "we're living with a new human virus, and we're going to find out if it will spread around the globe." McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn't yet known, it's impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.


and also:



> Headline net public sector debt (L5 under AGFS15) for the All Australia general government sector was driven by a net debt position for debt securities ($463,859m) and insurance and superannuation ($321,765m) of the national sector, as well as insurance and superannuation ($147,376m) and loans ($106,567m) of the state sector. This was partially offset by a net asset position for debt securities of the state sector (-$50,352m) and loans of the national sector (-$49,386m), as well as currency and deposits held by all levels of government (-$32,170m).


https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Latestproducts/5512.0Main%20Features62017-18?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5512.0&issue=2017-18&num=&view=


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## Bwv 1080

To put this in perspective, flu has something like a 0.5% mortality rate and this coronavirus is 2-3% (far less than SARS or MERS) so in the US 80,000 people died of flu last season, if the coronavirus became as prevelent as the flu, the deaths would be 4-6x higher, so 320,000 to 480,000 people in the US


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## pianozach

*What we don't know yet*:

How contagious it is: BUT China's Bureau of Disease Prevention and Control considers this virus "Highly infectious"

Incubation period (other coronaviruses range from two to 14 days)

If people spread the virus if they have been exposed but show no symptoms

Actual mortality rate

Health officials believe the virus can be passed from person to person via exchange of fluids from the respiratory tract, but they still don't know precisely how


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## KenOC

A chartered plane carrying more than 200 Americans from Wuhan landed today at March Air Reserve base, not far from where I live. Originally it was going to go to the public airport at Ontario, CA, where a special hangar had been equipped for the arrivals; but for some reason it was re-routed to the military base. Passengers received medical screening during a stopover in Anchorage, Alaska, and again on landing. If any of them showed symptoms of concern, nobody’s saying.

They will be kept in quarantine for a minimum of three days or, if necessary, up to two weeks. Can’t be too careful!


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## KenOC

Just updated: Confirmed coronavirus infections in China are now about 7,700, with only about 100 reported cases in the rest of the world. There have now been 170 deaths, all in China I think. It seems like good news that the growth rate in cases seems linear rather than exponential.

Of course some think the infection rate is far higher for a number of reasons, including people self-isolating at home due to the hours-long queues at hospitals and the lack of any effective treatment even after admittance.


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## Guest

When I was a teenager we had this epidemic called '*Hong Kong Flu*' and it was quite vicious, though it mostly killed the elderly. But there was nothing like the hysterics we have today. My son has had a note home from the Perth primary school his children attend, asking people who've been to China to stay home for the first 2 weeks of the school year (starts Friday). There is a heavy Chinese population at that school but he won't be counting on many of them taking notice of that instruction. He'd be better off leaving his own children away from school. Here's an interesting take on coronavirus:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/01/30/treating-coronavirus-like-a-yellow-peril/


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## DaveM

People tend to over-react because some of the information tends to be inaccurate, exaggerated and without perspective. Still, there is reason to worry because of how easily it is spread and how mobile populations are these days. Also, people may think that 2019-nCoV came from a small town, but the fact is that Wuhan, China has a population of 11 million, greater than Los Angeles County, so the chances of a large infected source is of concern.

What I never understand is why so many people don’t get the flu vaccine. Considering the number of people killed by flu every year, it would seem like a good idea. Some people give the excuse that the vaccine is not anywhere near 100% effective. True, but that means not 100% effective in totally preventing the flu. However it is very effective in reducing the severity of the symptoms and reducing mortality.


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## schigolch

Right now there are 4586 cases in Hubei province, and 3102 in the rest of China. So the disease is rapidly progressing. The whole country is compromised.

Maybe we will get similar situations all across the world in a few weeks. Hopefully the Chinese doctor that is an expert on SARS is right, and it will peak soon. Or maybe the raising temperatures (in the North hemisphere) will slow down the rate of infections in the coming months.

Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst.


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## KenOC

The Johns Hopkins *nCov dashboard* has undergone a major revision. For instance it now shows the number of people listed as "recovered" by province and country. However, the number of dead exceed the number of recovered by a good margin, which is disturbing.

For instance Hubei province, the epicenter of the disease, accounts for 162 of the 171 deaths worldwide; but the province lists only 90 recovered. That would seem very bad news if accurate, but I suspect it's probably due to a data/reporting problem.

Added: The first instance of human-to-human transmission in the US has been reported in Chicago, and the WHO has labelled nCov a "global emergency."


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## Bwv 1080

The mortality rate is 100% for anyone infected with the corona virus

of course it is also 100% for everyone that is not exposed to it


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## KenOC

None of us get out of here alive, that's for sure!


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## DaveM

KenOC said:


> The Johns Hopkins *nCov dashboard* has undergone a major revision. For instance it now shows the number of people listed as "recovered" by province and country. However, the number of dead exceed the number of recovered by a good margin, which is disturbing.
> 
> For instance Hubei province, the epicenter of the disease, accounts for 162 of the 171 deaths worldwide; but the province lists only 90 recovered. That would seem very bad news if accurate, but I suspect it's probably due to a data/reporting problem.
> 
> Added: The first instance of human-to-human transmission in the US has been reported in Chicago, and the WHO has labelled nCov a "global emergency."


My guess is that the '90 recovered' refers to those who were hospitalized. The majority of those with coronavirus don't require hospitalization. From what it sounds, those who are hospitalized have worrisome symptoms and the survival rate (of those), at least at the moment, is not very good.


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## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> Our government says our debt is the lowest in the 'developed world' (and my son re-iterated that; he works for our PM as an adviser). I don't care whether it's the lowest or not - I just don't like debt. It's a dead-end, rather like paying rent all your life. And it leaves nowhere to go when things get tough (as they absolutely will).
> 
> The people who scream 'gimme more' don't understand that and don't care about it.


Governments can sell bonds (paper) to investors so they can live on it. It's just paper. Greed is good.


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## Bwv 1080

Luchesi said:


> Governments can sell bonds (paper) to investors so they can live on it. It's just paper. Greed is good.


The title to your house or car is also just paper

Bonds are a legal claim on future tax revenue, so their value depends on the risks to that revenue.


----------



## Luchesi

Bwv 1080 said:


> The title to your house or car is also just paper
> 
> Bonds are a legal claim on future tax revenue, so their value depends on the risks to that revenue.


At times I make a lot and at times I lose a lot in the Ultra Short Oil ETF. Oil has fallen through the bottom of its recent range and I made a killing. No paper changes hands these days, but the money is real.


----------



## Bwv 1080

Luchesi said:


> At times I make a lot and at times I lose a lot in the Ultra Short Oil ETF. Oil has fallen through the bottom of its recent range and I made a killing. No paper changes hands these days, but the money is real.


Not bad for a security whose expected value is zero


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> My guess is that the '90 recovered' refers to those who were hospitalized. The majority of those with coronavirus don't require hospitalization. From what it sounds, those who are hospitalized have worrisome symptoms and the survival rate (of those), at least at the moment, is not very good.


Not sure that computes. "Among the first 41 confirmed cases admitted to hospitals in Wuhan … 6 (15%) individuals died." (Wiki) I'd think that we can assume by this time that the other 35 patients recovered. If this is right then when all is said and done, and among those hospitalized, the number of recoveries should be about six times the number of deaths.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Not sure that computes. "Among the first 41 confirmed cases admitted to hospitals in Wuhan … 6 (15%) individuals died." (Wiki) I'd think that we can assume by this time that the other 35 patients recovered. If this is right then when all is said and done, and among those hospitalized, the number of recoveries should be about six times the number of deaths.


A report today says that of the 99 patients hospitalized in Wuhan, the mortality rate is about 10% so the stats change by the day and the source.


----------



## Luchesi

Bwv 1080 said:


> Not bad for a security whose expected value is zero


The virus scares depress the price of oil. You can buy OILD and OILU when they're low and then take a profit either way oil goes, up or down. Both are 3 times the oil price volatility.

But you're right, either one can go 'way down, there's no underlying value.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> A report today says that of the 99 patients hospitalized in Wuhan, the mortality rate is about 10% so the stats change by the day and the source.


I checked and there have been 1,941 new cases reported in Wuhan in the last four days, and 96 deaths. Given estimates that about 20% of identified cases require hospitalization, the figure of 99 currently hospitalized sounds very low.

My gut, though, says that your mortality rate will turn out to be closer to the truth than the 3% figure often quoted.


----------



## KenOC

Worth remembering indeed.


----------



## schigolch

A report on the first 425 cases confirmed in Wuhan:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Not sure that computes. "Among the first 41 confirmed cases admitted to hospitals in Wuhan … 6 (15%) individuals died." (Wiki) I'd think that we can assume by this time that the other 35 patients recovered. If this is right then when all is said and done, and among those hospitalized, the number of recoveries should be about six times the number of deaths.


41 cases is such a small number that it would be irresponsible to extrapolate out from that. Best too wait for more data to come out. With new viruses, too, they won't behave like more established ones that have had years to adapt to a human host. Many times there is a short burst of activity as the virus is encountering this new host, and then later a more accurate infection pattern establishes. But always the elderly and very young and immunocompromised are at highest risk.


----------



## KenOC

Major virus news from the US:
----------------------------------------
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced on Friday that the coronavirus has been declared a public health emergency in the U.S. Beginning at 5 p.m. on Feb. 2, U.S. citizens returning from Hubei province will be subject to a 14-day quarantine… (I heard that this is the first mandatory quarantine of its kind in 50 years. The 195 Americans who flew into March Air Reserve Base on Wednesday are also quarantined for 14 days.)

…starting on Sunday, flights coming to the U.S. from China will be funneled through seven airports that are equipped to screen passengers for symptoms of the virus. The move comes as Delta Air Lines and American Airlines suspended flights between the U.S. and China, following several other international airlines who made similar announcements. United Airlines said that it was suspending flights to Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu, but would continue flying to Hong Kong.

(Some particularly bad news) The nation's top infectious disease doctor says a new study published Thursday night shows people can spread the Wuhan coronavirus before symptoms set in. "There's no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "This study lays the question to rest."

(And the US got its 7th case, in San Mateo County east of the SF Bay area.)


----------



## Roger Knox

KenOC said:


> Major virus news from the US:
> ----------------------------------------
> Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced on Friday that the coronavirus has been declared a public health emergency in the U.S. Beginning at 5 p.m. on Feb. 2, U.S. citizens returning from Hubei province will be subject to a 14-day quarantine…
> 
> (Some particularly bad news) The nation's top infectious disease doctor says a new study published Thursday night shows people can spread the Wuhan coronavirus before symptoms set in. "There's no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "This study lays the question to rest."


Canada must take the same measures, and probably more --- now.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> Major virus news from the US:
> ----------------------------------------
> Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced on Friday that the coronavirus has been declared a public health emergency in the U.S. Beginning at 5 p.m. on Feb. 2, U.S. citizens returning from Hubei province will be subject to a 14-day quarantine… (I heard that this is the first mandatory quarantine of its kind in 50 years. The 195 Americans who flew into March Air Reserve Base on Wednesday are also quarantined for 14 days.)
> 
> …starting on Sunday, flights coming to the U.S. from China will be funneled through seven airports that are equipped to screen passengers for symptoms of the virus. The move comes as Delta Air Lines and American Airlines suspended flights between the U.S. and China, following several other international airlines who made similar announcements. United Airlines said that it was suspending flights to Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu, but would continue flying to Hong Kong.
> 
> (Some particularly bad news) The nation's top infectious disease doctor says a new study published Thursday night shows people can spread the Wuhan coronavirus before symptoms set in. "There's no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "This study lays the question to rest."


And when you're over the sickness you're probably still a carrier for a few days.


----------



## KenOC

Current reported cases in Hubei province are 5,806. But a study published today by the *Lancet *estimates that there were 76,000 cases in Wuhan alone, and that was back on the 25th. Here are the study's main conclusions, with error bars:

"In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2.68 (95% CrI 2.47-2.86) and that 75,815 individuals (95% CrI 37,304-130,330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6.4 days (95% CrI 5.8-7.1)"


----------



## KenOC

*New US policy*: "The U.S. government declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency and will ban entry of foreign nationals who recently traveled in China from entering the country starting Sunday at 5 p.m."

"Recently" = 14 days.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> *New US policy*: "The U.S. government declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency and will ban entry of foreign nationals who recently traveled in China from entering the country starting Sunday at 5 p.m."
> 
> "Recently" = 14 days.


Some vacations are going to be indefinitely prolonged...

On the good side, there might be some good deals to be had at Wuhan luxury resorts right now.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> Some vacations are going to be indefinitely prolonged...
> 
> On the good side, there might be some good deals to be had at Wuhan luxury resorts right now.


When Mad Cow Disease was causing panic in Europe, I happened to be living in Switzerland at the time. I took full advantage of the lower beef prices (knowing full well that the beef was coming from Argentina, not any European nations where the disease was popping up). I ate well.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> When Mad Cow Disease was causing panic in Europe, I happened to be living in Switzerland at the time. I took full advantage of the lower beef prices (knowing full well that the beef was coming from Argentina, not any European nations where the disease was popping up). I ate well.


It progresses very slowly, so we all probably have it, if we eat meat.


----------



## KenOC

From *The Guardian*: Politically sensitive stuff. "Thousands of Hong Kong medical workers have voted to go on strike, calling for the government to close the border with mainland China, as the death toll from the Coronavirus outbreak rose to 304."


----------



## KenOC

A record 3,100 new cases reported today in China as the curve curls upward.










Added: The first coronavirus death outside China has just been reported from the Philippines -- a 44-yo male who had traveled there from Wuhan.


----------



## Duncan

Coronavirus won't turn you into a zombie, Malaysia says

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/sout...oronavirus-wont-turn-you-zombie-malaysia-says

"As medical authorities sought to contain the virus, some social media users in the country made a connection between the disease and the walking dead.

Malaysia's health ministry dismissed the rumour, however, saying on Twitter: _"The claim that individuals infected with this virus will behave like zombies is not true … Patients can recover."_

That would be wonderfully reassuring if it weren't for the fact that this exact quote is heard over the military scanner by Rick, Lori, and Carl in Season One Episode Three of "The Walking Dead"...


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> A record 3,100 new cases reported today in China as the curve curls upward.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Added: The first coronavirus death outside China has just been reported from the Philippines -- a 44-yo male who had traveled there from Wuhan.


In the months in which virus levels are high it's so important to get your micronutrients and vitamins, if you're deficient. There's a mysterious (to me) sequence which results in the eventual immunity that we manufacture as we get over a virus.


----------



## KenOC

Here's a *NYT article* detailing serious attempts to quash news of the virus in Wuhan. Lots of names, details, and so forth, concentrating on the month of January. Example: Doctors being told by police that they were violating the law by warning colleagues of the spreading disease. Another: An annual potluck for 40,000 people which took place on Jan. 19 - and by then the authorities could not have been blind to the threat.

Possible reason: "It was China's political season, when officials gather for annual meetings of People's Congresses - the Communist Party-run legislatures that discuss and praise policies. It is not a time for bad news…

" 'Stressing politics is always No. 1,'" the governor of Hubei, Wang Xiaodong, told officials on Jan. 17, citing Mr. Xi's precepts of top-down obedience. 'Political issues are at any time the most fundamental major issues.' "


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> In the months in which virus levels are high it's so important to get your micronutrients and vitamins, if you're deficient. There's a mysterious (to me) sequence which results in the eventual immunity that we manufacture as we get over a virus.


Its not really that mysterious, but I don't have the time now to explain how immune responses work. Suffice it to say that that is the typical course of events - as your body fights off a virus, the immune response generated typically progresses to form "memory" so that the next encounter with the virus results in a bigger, stronger, faster immune response. Not all viruses (and other infectious diseases) follow this same course (for example, chronic diseases, such as HIV and hepatitis C), but by and large, this is the normal process for most acute infections that are rapidly controlled (i.e. within 2 weeks).


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Here's a *NYT article* detailing serious attempts to quash news of the virus in Wuhan. Lots of names, details, and so forth, concentrating on the month of January. Example: Doctors being told by police that they were violating the law by warning colleagues of the spreading disease. Another: An annual potluck for 40,000 people which took place on Jan. 19 - and by then the authorities could not have been blind to the threat.
> 
> Possible reason: "It was China's political season, when officials gather for annual meetings of People's Congresses - the Communist Party-run legislatures that discuss and praise policies. It is not a time for bad news…
> 
> " 'Stressing politics is always No. 1,'" the governor of Hubei, Wang Xiaodong, told officials on Jan. 17, citing Mr. Xi's precepts of top-down obedience. 'Political issues are at any time the most fundamental major issues.' "


This is China - when is it NOT "political season?" They cover up this kind of stuff all the time. That is a feature, not a bug, of their system - secrecy, and no admitting that anything is wrong.


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike said:


> Its not really that mysterious, but I don't have the time now to explain how immune responses work. Suffice it to say that that is the typical course of events - as your body fights off a virus, the immune response generated typically progresses to form "memory" so that the next encounter with the virus results in a bigger, stronger, faster immune response. Not all viruses (and other infectious diseases) follow this same course (for example, chronic diseases, such as HIV and hepatitis C), but by and large, this is the normal process for most acute infections that are rapidly controlled (i.e. within 2 weeks).


Maybe there's no difference in a patient who's deficient in micronutrients or vitamins. The fatality rate's the same.


----------



## Guest

Luchesi said:


> Maybe there's no difference in a patient who's deficient in micronutrients or vitamins. The fatality rate's the same.


The vast majority of people in first world nations are not deficient in these things, and most vitamins taken in pill form are secreted in the urine. At any rate, that isn't really what is going on. People get sick, their immune system responds, and if successful, controls the infection and provides memory to protect against future infection. The most vulnerable are young children, whose immune systems are still immature, the elderly, whose immunity is just not as robust, and the immunocompromised, who have impaired or absent immune capabilities. Micronutrients and vitamins play very little, if any, role in these situations, unless somebody is seriously malnourished.


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## mmsbls

@DrMike: This logarithmic graph from the NY Times (a bit below the section "How dealy is the virus?") shows estimates of the fatality rate versus the infection rate for the coronavirus and other viruses. From what you know, does this estimate seem reasonable to you and how fast should the uncertainties be reduced? Taking mid points in the estimates, the coronavirus appears about twice as deadly as the swine flu and a bit more infectious than the common cold.


----------



## philoctetes

I'm seeing growth estimates of 20% per day.

(1.2)^38 ~ 10^3

10 billion in 4 months


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## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> I'm seeing growth estimates of 20% per day.
> 
> (1.2)^38 ~ 10^3
> 
> 10 billion in 4 months


Over the last 9 days (Jan 25 - Feb 3) cumulative infections in mainland China have increased by about 25% each day. But there is some question about the accuracy of reporting, with some voices saying the actual number of cases (and of deaths) are grossly under-reported. On that one, time will tell.


----------



## Guest

The "Spanish flu" pandemic of 1918 infected 1/3 of the world population and killed at least 3%. This could conceivable be similar. Or maybe it will be contained before it gets that bad. But draconian travel restrictions will have a bad effect on the global economy, even if they are successful in curbing the transmission of the disease.

The number of reported cases are "lab confirmed." I've seen estimates that lab confirmed is 10% of actual infections.


----------



## KenOC

Baron Scarpia said:


> ...The number of reported cases are "lab confirmed." I've seen estimates that lab confirmed is 10% of actual infections.


If the number of infections is in fact under-reported, but deaths are reported with more accuracy, that means the mortality rate from infections is lower than it might appear. Lately I've been seeing estimates that 20% of "known" cases require hospitalization, and 2-3% result in death. The comparable death rate from flu is given as <0.1%, so we're talking 20-30 times the mortality rate of flu.


----------



## Guest

Deaths can also be under reported. I imagine epidemiologists are experts in sorting this stuff out.

In olden times if a bad virus was transmitted from animals to humans a village would die. Now we have places like China where there are still markets with open air livestock, and the people travel globally. An new phenomenon.


----------



## Guest

mmsbls said:


> @DrMike: This logarithmic graph from the NY Times (a bit below the section "How dealy is the virus?") shows estimates of the fatality rate versus the infection rate for the coronavirus and other viruses. From what you know, does this estimate seem reasonable to you and how fast should the uncertainties be reduced? Taking mid points in the estimates, the coronavirus appears about twice as deadly as the swine flu and a bit more infectious than the common cold.


I'm not an epidemiologist, so I can't speak with certainty. But I wouldn't compare this to cold and flu viruses which have been with humanity for so long. This is new, and like new species introduced into a new environment, new viruses that have just made the species jump don't behave the same way as more established ones. Compare it rather to SARS of a few years back. We'll likely have a brief period of intense concern and rising infection rates, then unless it has some particular mechanism for making it more virulent, will likely flame out.


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## KenOC

Two more planes are scheduled to bring about 550 US citizens out of the Wuhan area in China. The passengers will be quarantined at military bases in San Diego and Fairfield in California.

Meanwhile, Li Wenliang, the Wuhan doctor who warned colleagues of a new coronavirus outbreak in late December and was then threatened by the police for illegal "rumor mongering," has himself been infected and is in intensive care on oxygen.


__
Sensitive content, not recommended for those under 18
Show Content


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## Luchesi

Has anyone on TC come down with this virus yet?


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## Luchesi

The price of oil (WTI crude) has fallen below the psychological support of 50 dollars.

The lowest since 2018.


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> Has anyone on TC come down with this virus yet?


Not likely. There are only 212 known cases outside of China, and many of those are in Thailand, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Elsewhere infections are rare - just 11 in the US, for instance.

Of the 492 deaths, only two have occurred outside of China - In Hong Kong and the Philippines.

Within China, though, things continue apace. Hubei province has just announced 3,156 new cases and 65 new deaths. Those numbers alone make this the worst day in the outbreak so far.

Over the past seven days, cumulative cases in China have grown at about 18% daily. The absolute number of new cases each day is certainly not going down, but the percentage growth may have slackened somewhat.

Interesting bit from Japan: 10 new cases have been found on a cruise ship off Yokohama.


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## KenOC

A *depressing account* of one family's miseries in locked-down Wuhan. Serious symptoms, but refused at the hospital because of lack of coronavirus confirmation - no testing kits! Again, refused at a quarantine point due to high fever. Uncle already dead, father apparently dying, brother coughing and having breathing difficulties, and no help to be had. A sad situation indeed.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> A *depressing account* of one family's miseries in locked-down Wuhan. Serious symptoms, but refused at the hospital because of lack of coronavirus confirmation - no testing kits! Again, refused at a quarantine point due to high fever. Uncle already dead, father apparently dying, brother coughing and having breathing difficulties, and no help to be had. A sad situation indeed.


Horrible, not sure it would be much better if it happened in the U.S. I remember seeing one estimate that there are something like 100,000 people infected in the region where the epidemic started (based on models of the infection and reporting rates). You think there are 100,000 empty hospital beds waiting in any U.S. state?


----------



## schigolch

While it's indeed possible that there are 100,000 people infected in the province of Hubei, it's very unlikely that all of them would need hospital beds. Rather, most of them will present mild symptoms and would not require hospitalization. In fact, quite a few wouldn't even look for medical help.

Of course, the big question here is if locking down a city, and especially a city as big a Wuhan with more than 11 million people, is the right way to fight the outbreak. Taking again the example of the US, if the infection rate would be mounting in Los Angeles, the US authorities would lock down the city, or even the metropolitan area?.

There is no easy answer. So far, the Chinese decision seems to be working, in the sense that 68% of the infections, and 97% of the deaths, are still happening in Hubei, and this is giving the rest of China, and the world, more time to prepare for the virus. What we do with this time, and if a better way to manage the lockdown of Hubei could be implemented, are still open questions.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> A *depressing account* of one family's miseries in locked-down Wuhan. Serious symptoms, but refused at the hospital because of lack of coronavirus confirmation - no testing kits! Again, refused at a quarantine point due to high fever. Uncle already dead, father apparently dying, brother coughing and having breathing difficulties, and no help to be had. A sad situation indeed.


if it comes to the west, the situation might not be much better. The critically ill patients require ICU monitoring + oxygen therapy or artificial ventilation. But is there enough such facilities in case of an serious large scale epidemic?


----------



## KenOC

Things are _not_ looking up in China yet. Just a couple of hours ago there were some big new entries to the list (in GMT):

- 22:10: 2,987 new cases and 70 new deaths in Hubei province, China.

- 23:37: China's National Health Commission reports 660 new cases and 1 new death. Their locations have not yet been disclosed, except for the fatality, which occurred in Heilongjiang province.

Overall, there have now been 28,108 reported cases in China and 563 deaths. The one-week daily growth rate in new cases is again above 20%. And ten more cases have been diagnosed on that Carnival cruise ship off Yolohama for a total of 20.


----------



## schigolch

For the statistical trend to be meaningful, you need to take your samples at the same hour, otherwise is very difficult, with the list being updated twice per hour.

This is my count, always taking the same hour as reference:


FECHAMUERTESINFECCIONESMORTALIDAD% AUMENTO MUERTES% AUMENTO INFECCIONESRECOVERED% RECOVERED22-ene186003,0%23-ene268303,1%44,4%38,3%24-ene4112873,2%57,7%55,1%25-ene5619752,8%36,6%53,5%26-ene8028502,8%42,9%44,3%27-ene10647972,2%32,5%68,3%28-ene13260572,2%24,5%26,3%29-ene17077832,2%28,8%28,5%13330-ene21397762,2%25,3%25,6%18740,6%31-ene259117912,2%21,6%20,6%25234,8%01-feb305146282,1%17,8%24,1%34838,1%02-feb362172382,1%18,7%17,8%47536,5%03-feb426198812,1%17,7%15,3%62331,2%04-feb492238922,1%15,5%20,2%85236,8%05-feb564276192,0%14,6%15,6%112431,9%

Of course, the evolution in Japan is not good. I think they are on the verge of being a new major focus of the outbreak. Let's see. On the other side, we don't new cases coming in France or Italy, for example, and this is encouraging.

Situation remains fluid.

There are a couple of new treatment tests with antiviral drugs being started now. Let's see if they are effective, or at least partially effective.


----------



## KenOC

schigolch said:


> ...Of course, the evolution in Japan is not good. I think they are on the verge of being a new major focus of the outbreak.


Japan's figures include (in the list I'm watching) 20 cases on a non-Japanese cruise ship moored off Yokohama. These cases resulted from exposure to an elderly man who earlier debarked in his home port of Hong Kong. The ~2,000 people on the ship are effectively in quarantine and their cases are unrelated to other cases that have arisen in Japan.


----------



## KenOC

KenOC said:


> ...Meanwhile, Li Wenliang, the Wuhan doctor who warned colleagues of a new coronavirus outbreak in late December and was then threatened by the police for illegal "rumor mongering," has himself been infected and is in intensive care on oxygen.


Media are reporting that Dr. Li has died. However, according to a new *BBC story*, Chinese media have corrected themselves to say he is still being treated.

"Reports said the doctor was given a treatment known as ECMO (extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation) which keeps a person's heart pumping and keeps their blood oxygenated without it going through their lungs."

*Added:* The hospital treating Dr. Li has confirmed his death. The BBC cites reports that higher authorities had ordered Chinese media to "correct" their earlier reports to say he was still being treated. I'm not sure what they thought that would achieve. This is all big news in China, where Dr. Li is widely seen as quite the hero.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Media are reporting that Dr. Li has died. However, according to a new *BBC story*, Chinese media have corrected themselves to say he is still being treated.
> 
> "Reports said the doctor was given a treatment known as ECMO (extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation) which keeps a person's heart pumping and keeps their blood oxygenated without it going through their lungs."
> 
> *Added:* The hospital treating Dr. Li has confirmed his death. The BBC cites reports that higher authorities had ordered Chinese media to "correct" their earlier reports to say he was still being treated. I'm not sure what they thought that would achieve. This is all big news in China, where Dr. Li is widely seen as quite the hero.


He is a hero. How unfair that he paid for it with his life. Reminds me of those healthcare professionals who worked with Ebola patients and during the early days of HIV were doing things like starting IVs and other risky procedures.


----------



## KenOC

There are 41 newly-confirmed cases on that cruise ship near Japan, Carnival's _Diamond Princess_. So there are now 61 cases total on the ship. There are 3,700 people on board.

Meanwhile, Genting's _World Dream_, also with 3,700 aboard, has been denied permission to land in Taiwan after three people previously on board tested positive for the coronavirus and 30 crew members reported current symptoms. It is returning to Hong Kong.

Japan has also denied entry of passengers on Holland America's cruise ship _Westerdam_, on its way to Okinawa from Hong Kong, because of suspected coronavirus cases on the ship.

Planning a nice cruise anytime soon? 

The 7-day daily growth rate of reported cases inside China is now 18%. The growth rate outside China is 12%. Not sure why these should be different.


----------



## DaveM

In China, an infant only 36 hours old contracted the coronavirus.


----------



## philoctetes

I'm just gonna post this you all can decide what to think about it.

Exiled Chinese Billionaire [Guo Wengui] Claims 1.5 Million Infected With Coronavirus, 50,000 Dead

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/were-totally-dark-japan-not-doing-enough-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers

On Twitter we can find some pretty horrible videos coming out of China. The article above may include links to some of them but I haven't gone through them.

on Guo Wengui: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guo_Wengui


----------



## Jacck

^^^
yes, there are various reports, for example this one
Alleged Tencent Leak Suggests Coronavirus Death Toll Spiraling to 25,000
which claims that mortality rate at almost 16%

on the one hand, there are various disinformation that might be exaggerated, on the other hand, CCP cannot be trusted. I guess we will not know the true number until the virus spreads to one of the western countries


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> ^^^
> yes, there are various reports, for example this one
> Alleged Tencent Leak Suggests Coronavirus Death Toll Spiraling to 25,000
> which claims that mortality rate at almost 16%
> 
> on the one hand, there are various disinformation that might be exaggerated, on the other hand, CCP cannot be trusted. I guess we will not know the true number until the virus spreads to one of the western countries


Even the official numbers are startling, with deaths now exceeding the SARS count. At this point, after the video evidence, I am doubting that those were hospitals that China constructed in response to all this...

Of course I may be Chicken Little about this but Taleb also preaches we should bias with caution. I know it's a valid term but I cringe whenever I hear CV called "novel".


----------



## schigolch

We are already having cases in Europe and the US and, for the time being, 0 deaths. In fact, outside of China we have only one dead, and his partner, also infected by coronavirus, is ready to be discharged from the hospital.

I think we just need to stay calm, and don't listen to rumors without any supporting evidence. The reality is hard enough, with more than 800 deaths, more than 35,000 confirmed cases, and the coronavirus already present in at least 16 countries worldwide.

But the mortality rate seems to be firmly in the 2-3% range.

The tale of the outbreak is more or less like this: 80% of the cases are mild to moderate, and almost all of them will recover. 20% of the cases are more serious, require hospitalization, and can produce pneumonia. Of these 20% of the cases, around 10-15% (2-3% of the total) will die of the disease. Most of the deaths are happening in people in their sixties or older, and with preexisting conditions, but some young and healthy people can also die.


----------



## Ras

Sars was deadlier than Corana. But Corona is much more contagious. What worries me is I heard someone say that corona has a shocking ability to mutate. Let's say it mutates to a much deadlier form that is still very contagious... Can that happen?

Yesterday WHO send experts to China to find out about the original outbreak of the virus.


----------



## schigolch

Hardly a "shocking ability to mutate".

Since the virus genetics was published by Chinese researchers, it's remarkably stable.

Of course, we don't know 100% about the future. Anything could happen. But, speaking in general terms, is very unlikely that the virus can mutate to a much deadlier form, keeping its current ability to infect people. The opposite is normally the case, that the virus will mutate to a milder form, simply because the most interesting thing for the virus is not to kill hosts, but rather keep them alive and able to propagate the virus for a longer time. So this is the mutation that will normally be the winner of the natural selection lottery.

We are now over 900 deaths, and more than 40,000 people infected.


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## DaveM

In spite of the early numbers, I don’t think we know yet if SARS was deadlier than 2019-nCoV. SAS starts higher in the respiratory tract with productive cough. The respiratory symptoms of the coronavirus start lower in the respiratory tract -though there can be a dry cough- and at least half of patients have some shortness of breath. These are worrisome symptoms for older people. If I was guessing I would say that coronavirus will end up deadlier.


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## schigolch

An interesting chart, showing number of new cases in China being diagnosed daily in the last week, outside the province of Hubei:


















https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ack-to-work-as-cases-exceed-40000-latest-news

Today, millions of Chinese workers are starting to go back to work. Let's see how this figure evolves in the coming days.


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## philoctetes

schigolch said:


> Today, millions of Chinese workers are starting to go back to work. Let's see how this figure evolves in the coming days.


A secondary consequence is the impact on global markets and demand for transportation and energy... gas prices are on a negative trend in the US, due to declining demand. This may look good in the short term for consumer, but suppliers are already complaining they are near the break-even point. If that's true then we could see a destabilizing economic feedback effect... with some sub-economies less fragile than others...

So yeah the success of mobilizing Chinese back to work with face masks on is definitely something to cross fingers for, even if one might want to blame them for it all in the first place. I just wonder if they will make things worse by rushing instead of waiting, as estimations of the incubation period may not be converging yet.


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## DaveM

Went to a very busy restaurant yesterday where at least 80% of the patrons were Chinese. At the table next to us, there were 3 young Chinese girls (I’m guessing late teens) at one end of the table with their 3 boyfriends at the other end of the table. 

At a table, 2 tables from us was a Chinese fellow (I’m guessing early 30s) sitting facing us who coughed forcefully and loudly once in our direction without covering his mouth. Two of the young Chinese girls saw this and immediately scowled and covered their mouths with their coat sleeves. I wasn’t very happy either, but smiled at the girls who smiled back with an embarrassed look. Point being: we’re all in this together regardless of culture.


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## Jacck

DaveM said:


> Went to a very busy restaurant yesterday where at least 80% of the patrons were Chinese. At the table next to us, there were 3 young Chinese girls (I'm guessing late teens) at one end of the table with their 3 boyfriends at the other end of the table.
> 
> At a table, 2 tables from us was a Chinese fellow (I'm guessing early 30s) sitting facing us who coughed forcefully and loudly once in our direction without covering his mouth. Two of the young Chinese girls saw this and immediately scowled and covered their mouths with their coat sleeves. I wasn't very happy either, but smiled at the girls who smiled back with an embarrassed look. Point being: we're all in this together regardless of culture.


I do not want to spread national stereotypes, but I traveled all over China for 6 months, and the hygienic habits there were really poor. Not just the wet markets, caged animals, raw meat overrun with flies, public toilets, but also the people spiting on the floor everywhere, coughing without covering mouths etc. That was 15 years ago and I know the CCP wanted to implement some programs to improve the situation, but I do not know how successful they were. Here children are taught from the youngest age to cover their mouths when coughing in public


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## Duncan

An interesting and relevant read... Highly recommended.









The Spanish flu of 1918-1920 was one of the greatest human disasters of all time. It infected a third of the people on Earth--from the poorest immigrants of New York City to the king of Spain, Franz Kafka, Mahatma Gandhi and Woodrow Wilson. But despite a death toll of between 50 and 100 million people, it exists in our memory as an afterthought to World War I.

In this gripping narrative history, Laura Spinney traces the overlooked pandemic to reveal how the virus travelled across the globe, exposing mankind's vulnerability and putting our ingenuity to the test. As socially significant as both world wars, the Spanish flu dramatically disrupted--and often permanently altered--global politics, race relations and family structures, while spurring innovation in medicine, religion and the arts. It was partly responsible, Spinney argues, for pushing India to independence, South Africa to apartheid and Switzerland to the brink of civil war. It also created the true "lost generation." Drawing on the latest research in history, virology, epidemiology, psychology and economics, Pale Rider masterfully recounts the little-known catastrophe that forever changed humanity.

Reviews -

"Impressive...Set against the devastating backdrop of global contagion, it is individual lives and deaths, discovered in letters, diaries, biographies and memoirs, that epitomize this rich account. Spinney invokes potent images...Along with exemplary research, Spinney's narrative is packed with fascinating, quirky detail...As the centenary of this monumental event approaches, other volumes on the pandemic will undoubtedly appear. Pale Rider sets the bar very high."―Nature

"A saga of tragedies and a detective story... Pale Rider is not just an excavation but a reimagining of the past. As the book progresses, the flu is cast increasingly as a character that crops up Zelig-like at important moments in history, altering the course of events previously unattributed to it.... Compelling."―The Guardian

"A book about the Spanish flu could so easily be dreary-complex pathology interwoven with pervasive tragedy. Not so Pale Rider. I've seldom had so much fun reading about people dying. Laura Spinney, a science journalist, is adept at explaining arcane scientific research in an entertaining, comprehensible way. ...With superb investigative skill and a delightfully light-hearted writing style, Spinney extends her analysis far beyond the relatively short duration of the plague....Spinney finds it odd that we know so little about the worst calamity to affect the human race. So do I. There are tens of thousands of books about the First World War, yet that flu is, arguable, more relevant to our world. While global war is, we hope, a thing of the past, global pestilence hovers like a vulture."―The Times

"Wide-sweeping... Spinney is a storyteller with a science writer's cabinet of facts. Retracing influenza's death trail over nine continents, she attempts to show how the flu affected not only the war-torn West but also remote communities in South Africa, China, and Brazil. The book reveals how desperately and differently people reacted and how gravely the flu influenced the modern world, touching everything from medicine to business and from politics to poetry."―Science

"Influenza, like all viruses, is a parasite. Laura Spinney traces its long shadow over human history... Ms Spinney ties the virulence of Spanish flu to its genetic irregularities and does a good job of explaining containment strategies through epidemiology... In Europe and North America the first world war killed more than Spanish flu; everywhere else the reverse is true. Yet most narratives focus on the West... Ms Spinney's book goes some way to redress the balance."―The Economist

"This riveting study plots the course of the deadliest pandemic in history."―The Sunday Times

"Ambitious...Spinney delves into the unfolding tragedy around the globe, looking at Brazil, China, Iran, India, and Russia. There is fascinating detail."―The Spectator

"An excruciating report on the global disaster...Absorbing...Spinney's important book does not attempt to offer light reading. No less than four pandemics are predicted in the 21st century. At least one will take the form of flu. Vaccination is not cheap, because the flu virus is constantly mutating. Annual vaccines currently offer the best protection. Britain does still possess a National Health Service. The enduring message of Spinney's magisterial work is to underline just how crucial that remarkable service is to the future security of an unusually privileged nation. Let's hope the author's book is read with care by Theresa May."―The Observer

"Spinney's book is intensely readable, and instead of a strictly chronological account she circles around history, epidemiology and culture to give a panoramic portrait of the previous century's most deadly pandemic. We are probably due another one of these any day now, this is a great way to see what the future holds."―The Awl

"A masterful account of the possible origins, spread, and cultural consequences of this modern-day plague."―Geographical


----------



## schigolch

I have read Ms. Spinney book above, though my personal favorite on the subject is this one:










Of course, it's unlikely that the current outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus will create such havoc.

Nevertheless, is a very dangerous outbreak. Just today, we have the news that maybe the incubation period will extend for some people to 28 days, rather than the 14 days considered until now. If confirmed, this would be really bad news for our containment strategy.


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## Jacck

Duncan said:


> "This riveting study plots the course of the deadliest pandemic in history."―The Sunday Times


it was not the deadliest pandemic in history. The Black Death was much worse
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
_"The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population.In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350-375 million in the 14th century. It took 200 years for the world population to recover to its previous level. The plague recurred as outbreaks in Europe until the 19th century. "_

there are still many plague columns (Marian columns) standing in many cities in central Europe to commemorate the plague


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## schigolch

Today we have again rising numbers of cases and deaths in China. However, the difference between Hubei (Wuhan) and the rest of continental China is striking:


CASESDEATHSTOTAL4433911112,50%HEBEI3336610683,20%OTHERS10973430,40%

I wonder why. I don't think is only that the outbreak started in Wuhan, but that probably the health system is collapsed and patients are not receiving the same level of care than in other provinces. This is also confirmed by the lack of deaths outside China, except one person in the Philippines.

Let's see. The virus has been renamed by WHO, and is now COVID-19.


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## KenOC

Slowing down?

"But on Thursday, officials added more than 14,840 new cases to the tally of the infected in Hubei Province alone, bringing the total number to 48,206 — the largest one-day increase so far recorded. The death toll in the province rose to 1,310, including 242 new deaths."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/coronavirus-cases-seemed-to-be-leveling-off-not-anymore/ar-BBZWzGs#image=BBZaM5o|3


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## pianozach

philoctetes said:


> I'm just gonna post this you all can decide what to think about it.
> 
> Exiled Chinese Billionaire [Guo Wengui] Claims 1.5 Million Infected With Coronavirus, 50,000 Dead
> 
> https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/were-totally-dark-japan-not-doing-enough-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers
> 
> On Twitter we can find some pretty horrible videos coming out of China. The article above may include links to some of them but I haven't gone through them.
> 
> on Guo Wengui:
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guo_Wengui





KenOC said:


> Slowing down?
> 
> "But on Thursday, officials added more than 14,840 new cases to the tally of the infected in Hubei Province alone, bringing the total number to 48,206 - the largest one-day increase so far recorded. The death toll in the province rose to 1,310, including 242 new deaths."
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ng-off-not-anymore/ar-BBZWzGs#image=BBZaM5o|3


_*"The death toll in the province rose to 1,310"*_

But I have read that the regular old flu has killed 30,000 a year.

Double but . . . If the numbers on fatalities are being suppressed, then we have a serious problem on our hands.


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## schigolch

The rise in the numbers of people infected in Hubei, is coming from a different methodology in the counting. Until now, only people with a positive blood test for COVID-19 were included in the tally, while moving forward, it seems that a simple CT image will be enough... that's coming probably from a shortage on test units. Using the previous method, the increase is only of about 1,500 people.

Much more worrying is the rise in the number of deaths. This is a really bad thing, and let's see the numbers today and tomorrow to see if we are facing just an statistical fluke or something very serious.

However, the increase in deaths is again confined to Hubei province. Outside Hubei, the rise in the number of deaths is fairly low.


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## Jacck

schigolch said:


> The rise in the numbers of people infected in Hubei, is coming from a different methodology in the counting. Until now, only people with a positive blood test for COVID-19 were included in the tally, while moving forward, it seems that a simple CT image will be enough... that's coming probably from a shortage on test units. Using the previous method, the increase is only of about 1,500 people.
> 
> Much more worrying is the rise in the number of deaths. This is a really bad thing, and let's see the numbers today and tomorrow to see if we are facing just an statistical fluke or something very serious.
> 
> However, the increase in deaths is again confined to Hubei province. Outside Hubei, the rise in the number of deaths is fairly low.


you trust the CCP? They likely hide the real numbers, because they worry about the economy. Remember Chernobyl and the cover up. China is no better. 
China Reports Huge Jump In New Coronavirus Infections And Deaths; Oil, Stocks Tumble


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## Jacck

At least 500 Wuhan medical staff infected with coronavirus

Japan has 44 more coronavirus cases on quarantined ship carrying 3,500 people
The ship, which is still carrying more than 3,500 passengers and crew members, has 218 people infected with the virus out of 713 people tested

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
...and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6...


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## schigolch

Japan reports first coronavirus deathJapan has recorded its first death from Covid-19 coronavirus, the country's health minister Katsunobu Kato has announced.
The Japanese woman, in her 80s, did not come from the Diamond Princess cruise ship which is in quarantine in Yokohama port.
She was living in Kanagawa prefecture, which borders on Tokyo.


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## Luchesi

schigolch said:


> *Japan reports first coronavirus death*
> 
> Japan has recorded its first death from Covid-19 coronavirus, the country's health minister Katsunobu Kato has announced.
> The Japanese woman, in her 80s, did not come from the Diamond Princess cruise ship which is in quarantine in Yokohama port.
> She was living in Kanagawa prefecture, which borders on Tokyo.


Do you think the genetic history in the prehistory of isolated China results in this virus being much worse in China?


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## philoctetes

Comparisons to the "regular old flu" mean nothing - CV has a rising death rate while ROF is relatively stable and treatable.


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## schigolch

Luchesi said:


> Do you think the genetic history in the prehistory of isolated China results in this virus being much worse in China?


I don't know. I guess is too early to say.

My feeling (just that, a feeling), is that the much higher death rate in Wuhan is coming mostly from the difficulties in giving the best treatment to the patients, given the collapse of the health system.

Let's see what the researchers and the doctors on the ground keep reporting.


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## eljr

Jacck said:


> I do not want to spread national stereotypes, but I traveled all over China for 6 months, and the hygienic habits there were really poor. Not just the wet markets, caged animals, raw meat overrun with flies, public toilets, but also the people spiting on the floor everywhere, coughing without covering mouths etc. That was 15 years ago and I know the CCP wanted to implement some programs to improve the situation, but I do not know how successful they were. Here children are taught from the youngest age to cover their mouths when coughing in public


I have never seen hygiene habits that are not poor, anywhere. Humans are pigs is my opinion.

Then, one someone is reasonably hygiene we call them "germaphobes."


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## Jacck

eljr said:


> I have never seen hygiene habits that are not poor, anywhere. Humans are pigs is my opinion.
> 
> Then, one someone is reasonably hygiene we call them "germaphobes."


too much hygiene is not good either. Our immune systems evolved to fight various microorganisms, the microbiome in our bodies is huge. Too sterile modern environments are blamed for the increase in allergies etc. Experiments on animals bred in completely sterile environments show that they do not develop normally. Like much else in life, hygiene is about the right balance between too much and too little.


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## Jacck

good site for monitoring the disease updates
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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## schigolch

schigolch said:


> Of course, the evolution in Japan is not good. I think they are on the verge of being a new major focus of the outbreak. Let's see.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-more-cases-as-another-china-city-locked-down

*Coronavirus: Japan braces for hundreds more cases as Hubei lockdown continues*

As we were discussing some days ago, the situation in Japan is becoming more and more worrying.

_"We agreed that the present situation represents the early stage of a domestic outbreak. This could progress further," said Takaji Wakita, the chief of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, after the first meeting of a task force at the prime minister's office._

_Pressure on Japan's health services increased again on Monday with the arrival in Tokyo of a government-chartered flight carrying 65 Japanese nationals from Wuhan, bringing the total number repatriated from the Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak to 763._

_Japan's health minister, Katsunobu Kato, urged the public to avoid crowds and "non-essential gatherings", including notoriously packed commuter trains and warned the country was "entering a new phase" in the outbreak of the virus._


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## Jacck

China's coronavirus predicted in 1981 US novel


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## Tikoo Tuba

It all seems like a world-wide drill for a bio-weapon attack or laboratory accident . Quite amazing .


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## CnC Bartok

Jacck said:


> too much hygiene is not good either. Our immune systems evolved to fight various microorganisms, the microbiome in our bodies is huge. Too sterile modern environments are blamed for the increase in allergies etc. Experiments on animals bred in completely sterile environments show that they do not develop normally. Like much else in life, hygiene is about the right balance between too much and too little.


So are you suggesting selective coughing and sneezing? Only cough/sneeze/spit at anyone who looks under the weather and whose immune system could do with a little pick-me-up......?:devil::devil:


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## Jacck

CnC Bartok said:


> So are you suggesting selective coughing and sneezing? Only cough/sneeze/spit at anyone who looks under the weather and whose immune system could do with a little pick-me-up......?:devil::devil:


Freud was a pervert and thought that children put stuff in their mouth because they are going through some "oral stage" of sexual development. The actual reason is likely evolutionary, so that children come into contant with as much microbes as possible and build up their microbiome. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/health/27brod.html


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## DaveM

The latest mortality overall rate is estimated at 2.3%, more than the flu, but still quite less than SARS. I’m still not ready to believe the mortality figure is as low as that, but we’ll see...


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## DaveM

My wife fell on her knee yesterday which meant a trip to urgent care for a possible X-Ray. The waiting room was pretty full with 4 people wearing masks, one of them with a frequent wet cough. It was unnerving. The doctor said that they are seeing a lot of Influenza A and people coming in with a cough are instructed to wear masks. I’ve had the vaccine and also keep Tamiflu at the ready.


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## schigolch

Mortality as number of deaths vs. number of cases: 2,70% total, 3,11% in Wuhan, 0,65% in rest of China, 0,50% in rest of the world.

Mortality as number of deaths vs. number of recovered: 12%.


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## Jacck

schigolch said:


> Mortality as number of deaths vs. number of cases: 2,70% total, 3,11% in Wuhan, 0,65% in rest of China, 0,50% in rest of the world.
> Mortality as number of deaths vs. number of recovered: 12%.


How can you compute mortality by dividing the number of deaths (cases with an outcome) by the number of ongoing infections (cases without an outcome)? 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
it is too early to know the true mortality, ie the probability of death in case of contracting the virus. It is difficult to estimate it in case of an early spreading epidemic


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## schigolch

It's what WHO is doing and sharing.

Of course, the only part we know with certainty so far is the numerator.

For the denominator we have uncertainties, such as what will be the outcome of each pending case, but also the true number of cases, as there is a strong possibility that there are very mild or even asymptomatic cases that are not counted.


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## Luchesi

schigolch said:


> It's what WHO is doing and sharing.
> 
> Of course, the only part we know with certainty so far is the numerator.
> 
> For the denominator we have uncertainties, such as what will be the outcome of each pending case, but also the true number of cases, as there is a strong possibility that there are very mild or even asymptomatic cases that are not counted.


I would think that the only fatality rate that teaches us about this virus would be the fatality rate of strong and healthy individuals in the prime of their life. If we could compare that rate with the same rate from SARS we would have an insight to help us.


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## Guest

The overwhelming, nearly total number of deaths from this virus are occurring in China, not other countries. I realize that partly this is due to most cases being in China, but the mortality rates are not the same, when you simply look at deaths by percent of cases. It could be that a lot of the reason behind the mortality rates in China may be linked to poor healthcare in the country. They seem to be overwhelmed, and I'm doubtful supportive care is being delivered. They tried to impress everybody by building a new hospital to treat patients of this virus in 6 days - apparently a hospital built that quickly is just about as crappy as one would predict. There are lots of things we can build quickly and should marvel about modern technology. Hospitals shouldn't be one of them.


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## schigolch

This is the situation as of yesterday night (CET time):


CASESDEATHSMortality rateTOTAL CHINA7413920022,70%HUBEI PROVINCE6168219213,11%OTHER PROVINCES12457810,65% WORLD (EXCLUDING CHINA)99950,50%

About the age and health condition of the victims, this is what Chinese authorities have shared so far:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
AGE​DEATH RATE80+ years old​14.8%​70-79 years old​8.0%​60-69 years old​3.6%​50-59 years old​1.3%​40-49 years old​0.4%​30-39 years old​0.2%​20-29 years old​0.2%​10-19 years old​0.2%​0-9 years oldno fatalities​

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION​DEATH RATECardiovascular disease​10.5%​Diabetes​7.3%​Chronic respiratory disease​6.3%​Hypertension​6.0%​Cancer​5.6%​_no pre-existing conditions_​0.9%​


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## Bwv 1080

Although a more conservative tally would be deaths / (deaths + total recovered) so roughly (2K/17K) = 12%


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## DaveM

^^^ Interesting stats and they make sense. A symptom of the virus is shortness of breath which implies an effect on the lower respiratory tract where oxygen absorption occurs. This is one of the reasons why the mortality increases drastically with co-morbid conditions such as cardiovascular disease and older age. The stats should also be reassuring for healthy younger people and to some extent relatively healthy older people (since it is likely that the higher mortality in older people correlates somewhat with the likelihood that they have serious health issues).


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## Luchesi

Imagine if the top leader in China and some at his level died of this virus. Will there be instability?

Is there a *succession* plan and a line of *succession?*


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## Jacck

Luchesi said:


> Imagine if the top leader in China and some at his level died of this virus. Will there be instability?
> 
> Is there a *succession* plan and a line of *succession?*


https://nationalinterest.org/featur...ld-damage-xi-jinpings-political-future-124516


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## schigolch

After the last couple of days, and events in South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran,... I think there is little doubt that we are facing now a global pandemic. The WHO will declare one this coming week, surely.

Let's hope as few people as possible get infected, and reduce the number of deaths as much as we can.


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## Jacck

Coronavirus: asymptomatic Wuhan woman shows why outbreak 'will be hard to stop' 
these asymptomatic spreaders + the long incubation period will be the main problem in stopping the pandemic. We will see how the western countries will cope. A first European casualty in Italy today.


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## schigolch

Actually, there are two casualties in Italy already.


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## KenOC

New flare-ups in South Korea and Italy.
------------------------
With 79 total cases and 2 deaths, Italy now has - by far - the highest number of cases and deaths in Europe, accounting for over 60% of all European cases, and becoming the country with most cases among all western (non Asian) nations…

At least 10 towns, 50,000 people, initially placed in precautionary voluntary quarantine, later in lockdown (first in Europe). Schools, workplaces, municipal and private offices, 3 train stations, coffee shops, and public places closed in the affected towns. Soccer games postponed. All universities in Lombardy and Veneto regions, all schools in Trentino region will be closed starting Monday. Friuli Venezia Giulia region declared a state of emergency.

"From the tests carried out, it emerged that the alleged zero patient did not develop antibodies. So he never had Coronavirus. The whole picture changes now" said Deputy Minister of Health, Pierpaolo Sileri.


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## KenOC

Italy's cases have doubled since yesterday's posting, to 157 (in less than a full day). South Korea's cases continue to double daily:

Feb. 18: 31 cases
Feb. 19: 58 cases
Feb. 20: 111 cases
Feb. 21: 209 cases
Feb. 22: 436 cases
Feb. 23: 602 cases (day still in progress)



> President Moon Jae-in raised the alert level to maximum (Level 4: Serious) thus empowering the government to lock down cities and restrict travel. "The coming few days will be a critical time for us" he said in an emergency meeting.


----------



## philoctetes

I'm concerned the US won't do enough to contain this. Think of all the economic pressure on China to keep factories running, the US will face (and yield to) the same pressure to keep airlines and travel services in business. And I don't like to think of all the opportunistic strategies that some will attempt to deploy in pretty much every sector of business and government. Kinda worrisome.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

philoctetes said:


> I'm concerned the US won't do enough to contain this. Think of all the economic pressure on China to keep factories running, the US will face (and yield to) the same pressure to keep airlines and travel services in business. And I don't like to think of all the opportunistic strategies that some will attempt to deploy in pretty much every sector of business and government. Kinda worrisome.


I do not anyone can do enough to contain it. How do you contain something with a 27 day incubation period?


----------



## KenOC

The feds want to move "30 to 50" patients diagnosed with the coronavirus from Travis AFB in central California to the *Fairview Developmental Center* in Costa Mesa, about 15 miles from my home. The FDC is a disused public health care facility recently ruled unfit for use as a homeless shelter due to its deteriorated condition and some specific deficiencies. Of course the whole area is quite densely populated.

Costa Mesa and surrounding cities were only notified Thursday night and told to expect the coronavirus victims to arrive on Sunday. This came as a total surprise since there had been no communication about this previously. Orange County has managed to block the move until it can be discussed in federal court tomorrow (Monday).

Makes me feel NIMBY all over!


----------



## Roger Knox

philoctetes said:


> I'm concerned the US won't do enough to contain this. Think of all the economic pressure on China to keep factories running, the US will face (and yield to) the same pressure to keep airlines and travel services in business. And I don't like to think of all the opportunistic strategies that some will attempt to deploy in pretty much every sector of business and government. Kinda worrisome.


I am concerned that Canada will not do enough to contain this. We have to be concerned about visitors from the many different countries where there are outbreaks now, and plan for more cases to come.


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## schigolch

The incubation period of 27 days, if real, would be clearly an outlier. The big majority of cases will have a period of 14 days, or less. That said, is possible that the current recommendation for a 14-days quarantine will change, but it will not go to 27-days, I think.

I wouldn't be worried at all of having patients in that Developmental Center in Costa Mesa, even if I lived 15 miles from there. The virus can't spread that far. In any case, the total number of patients so far in the USA is 35, so moving '30 to 50' means future cases, clearly.

Of course, it's almost certain that the virus will eventually transmit locally in the USA, too. However, how many people will be infected, and how many will die, is anyone's guess now.


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## KenOC

schigolch said:


> ...I wouldn't be worried at all of having patients in that Developmental Center in Costa Mesa, even if I lived 15 miles from there. The virus can't spread that far.


15 miles isn't far! I'd bet the area in Northern Italy officially locked down exceeds that in all dimensions. And of course our 15 miles are all densely populated. Note that the following may include places outside of the lockdown zone, e.g., Rome.
---------------------------------------------------
Current total cases in Italy:

- 114 cases in Lombardy (including 2 deaths):. The total includes: at least 76 in Codogno, 3 in Castiglione D'adda, 2 in Pieve Porto Morone, 1 in Casalpusterlengo, 1 in Pizzighettone, 1 in Sesto Cremonese, 1 in Santa Cristina e Bissone, 1 in Mediglia, 1 in Sesto San Giovanni, and 1 in Monza. Latest cases near Bergamo: 2 in Alzano Lombardo, 1 in Seriate, and 1 in Bergamo.
- 25 in Veneto (including 1 death): 19 in Vo' Euganeo, 3 in Dolo, 1 in Mira, and 2 in Venice..
- 9 in Emilia Romagna (all in Piacenza).
- 3 in Trentino Alto Adige (tourists from Lombardy)
- 3 in Piedmont (3 previously confirmed cases were reverted to negative).
- 3 in Rome (including 1 person who had been repatriated).

11 towns, 50,000 people, placed in lockdown.


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## philoctetes

All it takes is one accident, one person in that center getting contaminated, and then going in public before finding out they are carrying. Now back to work all you sick day fakers!


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## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> All it takes is one accident, one person in that center getting contaminated, and then going in public before finding out they are carrying. Now back to work all you sick day fakers!


Not even an accident is necessary. Quite a few of the infections in Japan are of healthcare workers, fully protected, testing passengers on the Diamond Princess, transporting them into shore quarantine, and so forth. It's likely that any quarantine facility will "leak" so long as people go in and out to cook, clean, test, take out the garbage, and a thousand other things.


----------



## schigolch

KenOC said:


> 15 miles isn't far! I'd bet the area in Northern Italy officially locked down exceeds that in all dimensions. And of course our 15 miles are all densely populated. Note that the following may include places outside of the lockdown zone, e.g., Rome.


Yes, but this is an outbreak!. It can happen anywhere. Even in Costa Mesa.

But a medical facility, properly managed, is not a problem. Even in your home town there are hospitals, I presume, and they will receive some people with the virus, sooner or later. It's very unlikely that the total number of people infected in the USA, or in California, for that matter, will not exceed 50 people.

Relax, that center won't increase your risk or your exposure.


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## KenOC

The US already has 35 confirmed infections, up from 5 two or three days ago. I would be astounded if the country did not end up with hundreds of infections (even if things go well), or if California didn't FAR exceed 50 cases.


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## schigolch

18 of these cases are people from the Diamond Princess, and there are also several that are part of federal quarantined group at JBSA-Lackland who had been brought back from Wuhan on a State Department-chartered flight.

As of now, there is no sustained local transmission of the virus confirmed in the US.

Most probably, it will come to pass, yes. But we are not there for the time being.


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## Guest

KenOC said:


> The feds want to move "30 to 50" patients diagnosed with the coronavirus from Travis AFB in central California to the *Fairview Developmental Center* in Costa Mesa, about 15 miles from my home. The FDC is a disused public health care facility recently ruled unfit for use as a homeless shelter due to its deteriorated condition and some specific deficiencies. Of course the whole area is quite densely populated.
> 
> Costa Mesa and surrounding cities were only notified Thursday night and told to expect the coronavirus victims to arrive on Sunday. This came as a total surprise since there had been no communication about this previously. Orange County has managed to block the move until it can be discussed in federal court tomorrow (Monday).
> 
> Makes me feel NIMBY all over!


You concerns are understandable, but your characterization of Travis AFB as "central California" is misleading. It is the outskirts of the San Francisco bay area. Not very far (35 miles) from dense population centers. I think the salient point is which facility is better equipped to isolate the patients.


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## KenOC

Baron Scarpia said:


> You concerns are understandable, but your characterization of Travis AFB as "central California" is misleading. It is the outskirts of the San Francisco bay area. Not very far (35 miles) from dense population centers. I think the salient point is which facility is better equipped to isolate the patients.


Travis AFB is indeed in Central California, being in Fairfield between San Francisco and Sacramento. Both those cities are in Central California.

Fairfield and Costa Mesa have similar populations, just over 100 thousand. But Costa Mesa has over twice the population density and is surrounded, cheek and jowl, by other densely inhabited cities. Fairfield is surrounded mostly by agricultural land and is equidistant from the centers of the two closest large cities at 40 miles each - San Francisco and Sacramento.

That said, it is evident that the feds want to separate the confirmed cases from those quarantined due to exposure without confirmation of disease. This seems like a sound strategy. In this case, the confirmed cases would be sent to Costa Mesa and those merely being observed and tested would remain at Travis. But there are thousands of square miles of remote desert land and many small desert communities in SoCal -- seemingly offering better locations for quarantine centers for a virulent disease.


​


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## schigolch

There are now 53 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. as more people who returned from the Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive for the virus, but no local sustained infection yet.


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## KenOC

schigolch said:


> There are now 53 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. as more people who returned from the Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive for the virus, but no local sustained infection yet.


A strongly infected stock market today...


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## haydnguy

KenOC said:


> A strongly infected stock market today...


The Dow closes -1,031.40, -3.56%


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## DaveM

I’m feeling so much better after finding out that Trump’s new head (or one of them) of the pandemic force, Cuccinelli, is tweeting to find out how to get past Johns Hopkins’ paywall to get to its coronavirus map. Glad we’ve got another mental giant in charge.


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## Jacck

You're Likely to Get the Coronavirus
the most likely outcome is, that the new virus will become endemic worldwide just like cold or flu


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## philoctetes

idk the area between SF and Sac (some people would argue over whether it is central or northern, it's actually in the boundary zone imo) is pretty populated. Ken probably hasn't been up here since there was nothing but the Nut Tree in Vacaville  where there is now miles and miles of shopping malls and car dealers... and all this along a busy corridor of one of the busiest and longest interstates in the US...

Me, I haven't been down to Costa Mesa in a long time either, but I recall there being lots of open space in southern CA as well, mostly inland where the terrain is the kind that thwarts firefighters... of coarse the coast is populated but it's just a hop skip and a jump (<2 hours) from Fairfield to the coast and don't forget that a lot of people actually do that commute every day...

The true Central California is the San Joaquin Valley, mostly farm and ranch towns and ... (channeling Johnny Carson) Piiismo Beach... a really cool place, and it's not near as inhabited as the I80 corridor.

Hope that deconfuses the geography... but the other factor is that people don't stay in one place all day every day... except us old folk at home on the internet... which is maybe a fairly safe place to be...

If... there is a breakout, and it isn't controllable, the prospect of locking down highways arises...


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## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> You're Likely to Get the Coronavirus
> the most likely outcome is, that the new virus will become endemic worldwide just like cold or flu


Well, I have some mobility but avoiding a contagious public is hard. The prospect that a lot of us will catch this and experience very bad symptoms seems like to be approaching a significant likelihood.


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## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Well, I have some mobility but avoiding a contagious public is hard. The prospect that a lot of us will catch this and experience very bad symptoms seems like to be approaching a significant likelihood.


the only hope is that warm weather might stop the virus on the northern hemisphere, because some other known coronaviri (which cause cold) are seasonal. Though it is by no means certain that this will be the case with this virus. Another problem with the coronaviri is that they do not leave a lasting immunity. Some reports from China indicated that reinfections are possible and the reinfections have a worse course and outcome than the first infections. There is no treatment, no vaccines, the virus is highly contagious. It will spread over the whole globe and stay with us


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## schigolch

I haven't seen any report from China about actual reinfections, other than speculations. Is there any real data that we can look?.


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## Jacck

schigolch said:


> I haven't seen any report from China about actual reinfections, other than speculations. Is there any real data that we can look?.


I only read a rumor about some Chinese doctor from Wuhan, that allegedly claimed it. I do not know any official reports. Though no other coronavirus is known to generate a lasting immunity (memory antibodies etc), that is why people can catch cold over and over again.

here it is
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

and here a more reputable source
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2


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## KenOC

Looks like a major flare-up in Iran. Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan have all closed their borders with Iran. And now:

"Iran’s deputy health minister said he has tested positive for the novel coronavirus and is in self-quarantine at his home just a day after he appeared at a news conference in Tehran where he sought to quell fears about the outbreak. Iraj Harirchi, the head of Iran’s counter-coronavirus task force, announced the illness in a video online while vowing that authorities would continue working to control the spread."

There is fear that Iran’s outbreak will fuel the spread of virus throughout the region. Bahrain’s count has suddenly increased from 2 to 23, Kuwait’s from 5 to 9, Iraq’s from 1 to 5, and Oman’s from 2 to 4. Iran’s own count has increased by 34 to 95, and it reports more deaths than any country other than China.


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## schigolch

As of today, if I were given the election to go to Iran, or to Wuhan, I'll settle for Wuhan.


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## Guest

Jacck said:


> I only read a rumor about some Chinese doctor from Wuhan, that allegedly claimed it. I do not know any official reports. Though no other coronavirus is known to generate a lasting immunity (memory antibodies etc), that is why people can catch cold over and over again.


I'm not sure that is right. A small fraction of "common cold" infections involve strains of coronavirus. The primary reason there is no common cold vaccine is that there are hundreds of strains of virus that cause common cold, mostly rhinovirus strains, and you can't make a vaccine that covers all of them. The flu vaccine works (sort of) because they can make an educated guess about what strain will dominate in a given year, as I understand it.


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## Jacck

Baron Scarpia said:


> I'm not sure that is right. A small fraction of "common cold" infections involve strains of coronavirus. The primary reason there is no common cold vaccine is that there are hundreds of strains of virus that cause common cold, mostly rhinovirus strains, and you can't make a vaccine that covers all of them. The flu vaccine works (sort of) because they can make an educated guess about what strain will dominate in a given year, as I understand it.


here you have a paper about the immune response to SARS and MERS
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4125530/
_"However, neutralizing antibody titers and the memory B cell response are short-lived in SARS-recovered patients"_
which means no lasting humoral immunity. But by reading the paper futher, it generates memory T-cells (cell-mediated immunity), which might offer some protection.
one of the main factors of virulence and mortality of the virus will likely be the innate immune response, which might be given genetically (that is why some lucky people will have mild symptoms and other not). The ARDS (of which most people die) is not caused by the virus itself, but by the response of the immune system to the virus which damages the lungs and causes the respiratory failure

in the best case scenario, this will be a like a bad flu epidemic that we have almost every winter


----------



## Jacck

Baron Scarpia said:


> I'm not sure that is right. A small fraction of "common cold" infections involve strains of coronavirus. The primary reason there is no common cold vaccine is that there are hundreds of strains of virus that cause common cold, mostly rhinovirus strains, and you can't make a vaccine that covers all of them. *The flu vaccine works (sort of) because they can make an educated guess about what strain will dominate in a given year, as I understand it*.


the vaccines are a difficult topic, because the interactions between the immune system and the pathogens are very complicated. Immune responses are triggered by antigens (molecules from the pathogens), and the flu viruses have the H and N antigens, but they mutate every year, that is why the various number like H1N3 and H2N5. So even if you develop immunity against one strain, next year a different strain comes. The flue vaccines are only guesses about what types of strains will exist in a given season. If the doctors make a bad guess, then the vaccine will not protect you. And every couple of years some animal flu virus jumps from animals to humans, that is why we have bird flu, swine flue, and there are no vaccines against those.

Some pathogens generate good immune responses with lasting humoral and cellular immunity (like polio or tick borne encephalitis). But some other viruses, such as the coronavirus or HIV, do not generate a good immune response, and thus no vaccines exist or are impossible to develop. The pathogens have possible no good antigens.


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## aleazk

I'm not worried at all, to be honest. I saw in the BBC that 4 of 5 infected people experience only mild flu-like symptoms that resolve within a few days without the need of any medical intervention. Of course, it's a new strand of virus, so big measures must be taken, but, particularly in the last two days, there seems to be an increase in paranoia and fear (at least that's what you read on the media), which I think is way out of proportions.


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## schigolch

CASESDEATHSMortality rateTOTAL CHINA7806527153,48% HUBEI PROVINCE6538225093,84% OTHER PROVINCES126832061,62% WORLD (EXCLUDING CHINA)2932491,67% TOTAL8099727643,41%


WORLDCHINATOTALCases (Discharged + Deaths)3513247132822Mortality Rate14,0%8,4%8,4%

To me, this looks like deadly serious. The mortality rate is somewhere between 3,4% and 8,4% so far. To compare, seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0,1%. Considering how fast the virus is spreading, there could be millions of deaths worldwide before a treatment, or a vaccine, are available.

The good news is that the figures in China, both of new cases and deaths, are descending. Much more outside Hubei, but even there the numbers are better.

However, the virus is now in more than 40 countries, and in some of them, like Iran, we still don't know how big the outbreak really is,


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## aleazk

I would take those generic statistics with a grain of salt. The most relevant are the ones that analyse in more detail the impact on different age groups. From wikipedia: "According to China's NHC, most of those who died were older patients – about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. The case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2–3%".

I would be worried by a virus that kills 75% of healthy young adults. This seems like a very flu-like virus, just a bit more virulent.


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## KenOC

Fiddling with numbers, comparing the seasonal flu with 2019 nCoV.

The seasonal flu has an r0 of about 1.3. 2019 nCoV’s R0 seems t be about 4.0. If these numbers are accurate, then a person with 2019 nCoV will infect 4 people, compared with the flu’s 1.3 people.

The mortality rate from the seasonal flu is about 0.1%, or probably less. The mortality rate of 2019 nCoV seems to be about 2.5%, making it 25 times more virulent.

Taken together, the implication is that 2019 nCoV is likely to kill about 77 times as many people as the seasonal flu in a typical year: (4/1.3) * (.025/.001). In the US, a “middling” flu year results in about 30,000 deaths. So the 2019 nCoV equivalent would be about 2.3 million deaths.

I hope somebody can point out the error in these numbers.


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## aleazk

2.3 million deaths seems like a big number, but it's not. The Spanish flu, a true horrific pandemia, (wiki) "infected 500 million people around the world, or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million". Of course, that wae for the whole world, not just the US. But I find it unlikely that the virus will spread as much as the seasonal flu in such a worldwide, omnipresent way. And that's because of all the quarantine measures that are being taken by all countries affected. As for Iran and other obscure countries, I wouldn't worry from the West point of view; under the Trump administration, and in normal situations, iranians already have a hard time in explaining why they should be allowed to enter the US... imagine the situation if there's also the virus danger. The US has a ridiculously strong emergency system, probably the most prepared in the world. I find the situation of a coronavirus pandemia in the US with 2.3 millon deaths to be highly unlikely and a bit delusional. Have a bit more faith in the highly trained professionals of your own country, the most technologically and scientifically advanced in the world forr Pete's sake. As for the iranians, well, possibly many people will die and I'm sorry for that, but it's on their side to elect transparent leaders...

Besides, since the sars virus, a lot of knowleege has been gained about coronaviruses. 

To be honest, I think a much bigger danger is Trump getting a second term...


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## schigolch

Between 35 to 85 times the mortality rate, is a bit more virulent?.

Let's be serious, please. Facts are facts.

This is the opinion of the CDC: is a question of when, and not a question of if, there is going to be a pandemic in the US of COVID-19, due to the new virus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...k-severe-disruption-america-cdc-united-states

About preparadness and how strong the US health system really is, we will see. Just to point out that the CDC stopped the distribution of coronavirus testing kits after they were found to be flawed...!.

Of course, Mr. Trump is optimistic, and he says that the virus is going to be away. So maybe is better if he is reelected, after all. It seems like he has a plan.


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## mrdoc

It is a fiendish plot by the world leaders to reduce the Earths population by targeting the old and frail it was manufactured in China, has anyone asked where it came from ? perhaps a biological weapon which escaped from the laboratory.


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## Jacck

aleazk said:


> This seems like a very flu-like virus, just a bit more virulent.





aleazk said:


> The Spanish flu, a true horrific pandemia, (wiki) "infected 500 million people around the world, or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million".


in one post you bagatelize the epidemic as "just another flu" and in another post you write about the "true horrific pandemia of the Spanish flu". The problem is that the corronavirus seems to have exactly the same mortality as the Spanish flu (2-3%). And a 20% chance of having a serious course of the disease with pneumonia and need for hospitalization seems low to you?


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## philoctetes

To be on the safe side, and being a rational pessimist, I spent $700 on groceries yesterday... to feel on the good side, I'm seeing reports that the mortality rate is < 1% outside of China... so my "expectations" are certainly not stationary even though I can do the math...

The worse news I've seen today is that Germany admits losing track of the infection network... and the statistics aren't likely to improve wherever that happens...


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> To be on the safe side, and being a rational pessimist, I spent $700 on groceries yesterday... to feel on the good side, I'm seeing reports that the mortality rate is < 1% outside of China... so my "expectations" are certainly not stationary even though I can do the math...
> 
> The worse news I've seen today is that Germany admits losing track of the infection network... and the statistics aren't likely to improve wherever that happens...


The countries have likely no track of the infection networks, the spread patterns make no sense. For example
_Milan (population of about 1.5 million people) has 2 confirmed cases. For comparison, among travelers returning from Milan, there are at least 5 confirmed cases: in Croatia, Germany, France, Spain, and Finland._
which means that there are likely many more infected people in Milan. Many infections likely escape detection.


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## Guest

No, the human race will not be driven to extinction, but it seems possible that the novel coronavirus could become a version of the common cold that has a 10% chance of requiring hospitalization and a 2% chance of killing you, higher if you are elderly or have another serious medical condition already. The average person gets 2 or 3 colds a year. It could have a profound impact. SARS was contained, there are no new cases. But there are already 10 times as many infections as there were in the course of the SARS epidemic. Not clear at all that this will be contained. It seems like the best hope is that it will be so lethal that people infected die before they have a chance to infect many other people.


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## schigolch

The mortality rate of common cold is negligible.

Mortality rate of seasonal influenza is around 0,1%.

We are not sure yet about this coronavirus mortality rate, these are the latest facts, but this can change:


CASESDEATHSMortality rateTOTAL CHINA7806527153,48% HUBEI PROVINCE6538225093,84% OTHER PROVINCES126832061,62% WORLD (EXCLUDING CHINA)2932491,67% TOTAL8099727643,41%


WORLDCHINATOTALCases (Discharged + Deaths)3513247132822Mortality Rate14,0%8,4%8,4%


----------



## DaveM

Baron Scarpia said:


> It seems like the best hope is that it will be so lethal that people infected die before they have a chance to infect many other people...


Our best hope???


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> Our best hope???


Yes, that's why we're not all dead of Ebola. A disease that kills before the host has a chance to transmit doesn't propagate.


----------



## premont

mrdoc said:


> It is a fiendish plot by the world leaders to reduce the Earths population by targeting the old and frail it was manufactured in China, has anyone asked where it came from ? perhaps a biological weapon which escaped from the laboratory.


Yes, some science-fiction author (forgot his name) predicted this situation many years ago. :tiphat:


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## haydnguy

I was reading where the problem of this outbreak, unlike the past, is that people are walking around without symptoms whereas in the past when someone was infected they would have severe symptoms or die.


----------



## Jacck

haydnguy said:


> I was reading where the problem of this outbreak, unlike the past, is that people are walking around without symptoms whereas in the past when someone was infected they would have severe symptoms or die.


that is why it is likely so insidious. My hunch is that there are many times more people infected in Italy than the authorities know about. The virus was likely silently spreading there over several weeks before anyone noticed it. Many young people likely have the virus without even knowing it and only when the older people catch it is it diagnosed. The epidemic is unstopable, it is out of control. It is totally out of control in Iran (if even their minister caught it), North Korea and likely many other countries.


----------



## premont

Baron Scarpia said:


> It seems like the best hope is that it will be so lethal that people infected die before they have a chance to infect many other people.


This is certainly wishful thinking, so far the number of infected people without clinical disease probably is greater than the number with clinical disease. This explains effortlessly the situation in Milano.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> that is why it is likely so insidious. My hunch is that there are many times more people infected in Italy than the authorities know about. The virus was likely silently spreading there over several weeks before anyone noticed it. Many young people likely have the virus without even knowing it and only when the older people catch it is it diagnosed. The epidemic is unstopable, it is out of control. It is totally out of control in Iran (if even their minister caught it), North Korea and likely many other countries.


The bright side of that is that the mortality rate is much lower than estimated, if there are many more infected than we know about.


----------



## Guest

premont said:


> This is certainly wishful thinking, so far the number of infected people without clinical disease probably is greater than the number with clinical disease. This explains effortlessly the situation in Milano.


I agree, it doesn't seem to be the case. Another key factor is the extent to which people who are exposed develop persistent immunity, which would damp transmission. Again, not clear, but no particular reason to optimistic.

The question, will we see a lot more threads, "what happened to poster _x_, I hope he is alright."


----------



## DaveM

Baron Scarpia said:


> Yes, that's why we're not all dead of Ebola. A disease that kills before the host has a chance to transmit doesn't propagate.


No, that's not why we're not all dead from Ebola. Deadly viruses and bacteria are smart enough to know not to kill their host before it can spread the disease. To do otherwise would be a quick end of said virus or bacteria.


----------



## aleazk

Jacck said:


> in one post you bagatelize the epidemic as "just another flu" and in another post you write about the "true horrific pandemia of the Spanish flu". The problem is that the corronavirus seems to have exactly the same mortality as the Spanish flu (2-3%). And a 20% chance of having a serious course of the disease with pneumonia and need for hospitalization seems low to you?


Are you comparing early 20th century europe with today? 

Virus spreading is a systemic thing, it doesn't depend exclusively on the biological characteristics of the virus, but also in the context in which this is happening. In Africa, very poor hygienic conditions and healthcare infraestructure was the key for the spread of Ebola, which wasn't even airbone: from wikipedia "The potential for widespread infections in countries with medical systems capable of observing correct medical isolation procedures is considered low.Usually when someone has symptoms of the disease, they are unable to travel without assistance. Dead bodies remain infectious; thus, people handling human remains in practices such as traditional burial rituals or more modern processes such as embalming are at risk. 69% of the cases of Ebola infections in Guinea during the 2014 outbreak are believed to have been contracted via unprotected (or unsuitably protected) contact with infected corpses during certain Guinean burial rituals."


----------



## aleazk

Baron Scarpia said:


> The bright side of that is that the mortality rate is much lower than estimated, if there are many more infected than we know about.


I was going to say this.

---------------------------------

Jeez, so much alarmism!


----------



## Guest

aleazk said:


> I was going to say this.
> 
> ---------------------------------
> 
> Jeez, so much alarmism!


Bien dicho, aleazk! Let's be grateful that it's not a zombie virus! Aaagh !! Cue zombie apocalypse music ...


----------



## aleazk

Wikipedia on Ebola: "The disease has a high risk of death, killing 25% to 90% of those infected, with an average of about 50%."



aleazk said:


> ... From wikipedia (about the new corona virus): "According to China's NHC, most of those who died were older patients - about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. The case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2-3%".
> 
> I would be worried by a virus that kills 75% of healthy young adults. This seems like a very flu-like virus, just a bit more virulent.


----------



## premont

Baron Scarpia said:


> I agree, it doesn't seem to be the case. Another key factor is the extent to which people who are exposed develop persistent immunity, which would damp transmission. Again, not clear, but no particular reason to optimistic.


If we look at other corona-vira (first and foremost the common cold vira), their ability to induce long lasting immunity is very low or maybe non existent. They also seem to be prone to frequent mutations which change their antigenic potential and their sensitivity to the antibodies, we may have produced when we are infected. For the same reason it may perhaps prove impossible to produce an efficient vaccine. The situation, we are in now, is not that dissimilar from when an influenza virus mutates and gives rise to an pandemic of "Asian influenza", just that this new corona virus seems to be more contagious and virulent than most influenza-vira. I have always wondered, why these pandemics always begin in Asia. The new corona virus has been associated with bats, maybe the habit of eating wild animals is the real threat for humanity, because wild animals are reservoirs of patogenic vira. So people, who have close contact with wild animals, may be one of the greatest threats to humanity. Cf. how the HIV - as well as always sexually transmitted, a virus which can't "survive" but a short time outside its host, has spread to humans from monkeys.


----------



## DaveM

premont said:


> If we look at other corona-vira (first and foremost *the* common cold vira)...


Not sure what you mean. A coronavirus is responsible for only (approximately) 1/10 of common colds.

Edit: re-reading your post a couple of times, I think I get your drift, but I'll leave the above stat up.


----------



## premont

DaveM said:


> Not sure what you mean. A coronavirus is responsible for only (approximately) 1/10 of common colds.
> 
> Edit: re-reading your post a couple of times, I think I get your drift, but I'll leave the above stat up.


Considerations of the other kinds of vira which cause common cold (rhinovira, adenovira et.c.) are not relevant, when one considers a corona virus disease, may it be common cold, SARS, MERS or the new COVID-19. I meant to point to the obviously weak antigenic properties of coronavira.


----------



## KenOC

Make what you can of this:
-------------------------------
Iranian Government Spokesman Ali Rabiyee cautioned yesterday that "those regional states which have kept the number of their coronavirus-infected patients confidential will be bombarded by media reports about their conditions in the next few days."


----------



## aleazk

premont said:


> If we look at other corona-vira (first and foremost the common cold vira), their ability to induce long lasting immunity is very low or maybe non existent. They also seem to be prone to frequent mutations which change their antigenic potential and their sensitivity to the antibodies, we have produced when we are infected. So my hopes in this respect for the new coronavirus are not great. For the same reason it may perhaps prove impossible to produce an efficient vaccine. The situation, we are in now, is not that dissimilar from when an influenza virus mutates and gives rise to an pandemic of "Asian influenza", just that this new corona virus seems to be more contagious and virulent than most influenza-vira. I have always wondered, why these pandemics always begin in Asia. The new corona virus has been associated with bats, maybe the habit of eating wild animals is the real threat for humanity, because wild animals are reservoirs of patogene vira. So people, who have close contact with wild animals, may be one of the greatest threats to humanity. Cf. how the HIV - as well as always sexually transmitted, a virus which can't "survive" but a short time outside its host, has spread to humans from monkeys.


I think it's by now quite likely that it originated in that Wuhan market, were bats, snakes, and other wild animals were sold without any hygienic considerations or government control about their origin and potential diseases. Which is amazing for an state controled society like China! Or they knew about these illegal markets and their poor conditions, but they allowed them because they were part of the tradition or they are an incompetent state. I don't think China is an incompetent state, they knew about these markets, even more after the sars outbreak, the many avian flu viruses, etc. It's time for China to stop these practices and to enter the 21st century and Western rules regarding sanitation of food of animal origin. To ban the pseudoscietific so-called "traditional medicine", which also drawn many wild species close to extition even in other countries due to illegal trade.


----------



## aleazk

KenOC said:


> Make what you can of this:
> -------------------------------
> Iranian Government Spokesman Ali Rabiyee cautioned yesterday that "those regional states which have kept the number of their coronavirus-infected patients confidential will be bombarded by media reports about their conditions in the next few days."


I don't get what he's saying. West media? Their media? The government? Anyway, going for "confidentiality" is an incredibly stupid, antiscientific, unethical, and counter-productive thing, which will backfire to the very population of those states and iran in general. I'm so ***.king sick of these backward countries, be it teocracies, state controlled societies, populist pseudo dictatorships (no to mention full dictatorships...)


----------



## Duncan

*A made-in-Canada solution to the coronavirus outbreak?

The best hope for an antiviral drug may come from Michel Chrétien's Montreal lab...*


----------



## KenOC

The CDC reports the first case in the US that can’t be tied to an arrival from overseas. This is a key sign of a potential pandemic. The person is being treated at a hospital in Sacramento.

Otherwise, cases in Thailand and Iran (at least) may be massively understated. Hong Kong’s airport is 95% empty due to the collapse of the tourist business. The government will hand out HKD10,000 to every permanent resident to help get by.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> The CDC reports the first case in the US that can't be tied to an arrival from overseas. This is a key sign of a potential pandemic. The person is being treated at a hospital in Sacramento.
> 
> Otherwise, cases in Thailand and Iran (at least) may be massively understated. Hong Kong's airport is 95% empty due to the collapse of the tourist business. The government will hand out HKD10,000 to every permanent resident to help get by.


What is concerning to me is that the new case appeared in Solana county, which is the SF Bay Area suburb where Travis AFB is located. It seems to suggest that the disease may be leaking out of the facilities where patients are being quarantined.


----------



## KenOC

Baron Scarpia said:


> What is concerning to me is that the new case appeared in Solana county, which is the SF Bay Area suburb where Travis AFB is located. It seems to suggest that the disease may be leaking out of the facilities where patients are being quarantined.


Indeed. Travis AFB is located next to Fairfield, the County Seat of Solano County. Travis is of course the home of a large group of people in coronavirus quarantine. The feds plan to move Travis's active diagnosed cases to a facility in densely populated Costa Mesa, not far from my home. That is not comforting.


----------



## DaveM

So VP Pence is going to head up our coronavirus task force. I can sleep well tonight knowing that he will bring the same prowess to it that he did as Indiana Governor during the HIV epidemic...


----------



## Guest

Not to mention that he denies evolution, which is the basis of the scientific understanding of viruses in general.


----------



## schigolch

I don't think the virus is "leaking out" of any quarantine facility. This is very unlikely, though not impossible, of course.

Local transmission is happening now not only in the US, but also in France, Germany and Spain, for instance. And in zones that have nothing to do with quarantine facilities.

Much more important for the future of the outbreak is the fact that now we have more new cases outside China, than in China itself. And that outside Hubei, the number of new cases and deaths in China is very low. In other words, is probably safer now in Beijing than in Milano.

This is a great success. There are two issues however: first, if this trend in China will hold when more and more people is starting to work again, and resume "normal" life; second, if other countries can mimic China, where really extraordinarily strong public health measures have been taken.


----------



## Jacck

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news

the situation in Italy is likely MUCH worse than just the official 470 cases. So many other European cases (Danemark, Austria, Germany etc) caught the virus in Italy.

High case numbers in South Korea are likely the result of a good quality health care system and good testing abilities. Many other countries including Japan have mismanaged the outbreak and their cases are likely very underreported due to their inability to test for the disease effectively. The numbers from 3rd world countries including China cannot be relied upon at all.


----------



## aleazk

I noticed that all media just use the generic term "coronavirus" rather than the official "COVID-19". It's me or the official name is not a very well chosen one? It seems clumsy and doesn't catch the attention of the eyes when you read it, unlike SARS, HIV, Ebola, etc.


----------



## Jacck

aleazk said:


> I noticed that all media just use the generic term "coronavirus" rather than the official "COVID-19". It's me or the official name is not a very well chosen one? It seems clumsy and doesn't catch the attention of the eyes when you read it, unlike SARS, HIV, Ebola, etc.


catchy names are important, for example "black death" or "flesh eating streptococcus"


----------



## premont

If I recall correctly from that much, I have read about the COVID-19, there are now at least two confirmed patients, who fell ill primo January and recovered but subsequently fell ill again in the last half of February. This either means, that the disease can take a very protracted course, or that the infection leaves little or no immunity, as I suggested above. And even if only a few patients become chronic carriers of the virus, it will become very difficult to control,, "thanks" to its high infective potential.


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> If I recall correctly from that much, I have read about the COVID-19, there are now at least two confirmed patients, who fell ill primo January and recovered but subsequently fell ill again in the last half of February. This either means, that the disease can take a very protracted course, or that the infection leaves little or no immunity, as I suggested above. And even if only a few patients become chronic carriers of the virus, it will become very difficult to control,, "thanks" to its high infective potential.


the virus will spread everywhere, infect almost everyone and become endemic, with reinfections possible, and a constant danger to the elderly, the to sick and the immunocompromised. At least until some treatment or vaccine is found, but that might just prove impossible (given that we still do not have any treatment for the common cold). It was only a matter of time until some pandemic like this came. Humans have become complacent.


----------



## schigolch

Pandemics have been always there. And much more frightening than the coronavirus: plague, smallpox, influenza, AIDS,...

I'm not sure if we will be able to manufacture a vaccine, probably yes. If not, surely we will find out a good anviral treatment, like we did for AIDS.

And in the near future, we will just use an injection of nanorobots, and all will be fixed. 

Yes, a lot of people will most probably catch the disease, some of us here will do, even some of us here can die of it. But it's not a Biblical curse, or the end of the world.


----------



## Jacck

schigolch said:


> And in the near future, we will just use an injection of nanorobots, and all will be fixed.


I very much doubt it, aging is given genetically and epigenetically (epigenetic DNA modifications). Nanobots won't be able to enter cells and fix DNA methylations. But they will be good weapons.


----------



## philoctetes

I just learned that they transferred a patient from Travis AFB to Sonoma County. One patient, to relieve the burden at TAFB. One patient. I repeat, one patient to relieve the burden at TAFB. Is it sinking in yet?

Why is this quarantine not a quarantine? they should have never brought it to the mainland imo. When this thing comes to schools and workplaces, watch out. 

I live in Sonoma County and evacuated so many times lately I finally bought a travel trailer... and I'm wondering if and when I should get outta town, or just sit tight with my kitchen full of groceries...


----------



## DaveM

Trump is going to host a ‘mask ball’ at the Trump tower.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> The CDC reports the first case in the US that can't be tied to an arrival from overseas. This is a key sign of a potential pandemic. The person is being treated at a hospital in Sacramento.


yes, this is the real problem, not some patients in a quarantine facility. One case of unconfirmed origin means there are dozens of undetected cases out there and by the time the origin is figured out you'd have hundred if not thousands of cases already.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> yes, this is the real problem, not some patients in a quarantine facility. One case of unconfirmed origin means there are dozens of undetected cases out there and by the time the origin is figured out you'd have hundred if not thousands of cases already.


But there must be an origin so until we know what that is we should be VERY cautious about all sources, and not exclude the most obvious possibilities...

If China and SK are still exporting anything, from gadgets to food, that's a concern I've had for sometime. Even if they halted, there's no guarantee it was soon enough.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> But there must be an origin so until we know what that is we should be VERY cautious about all sources, and not exclude the most obvious possibilities...
> 
> If China and SK are still exporting anything, from gadgets to food, that's a concern I've had for sometime. Even if they halted, there's no guarantee it was soon enough.


my guess is that the virus is already silently spreading in the US. The problem is that no testing is being done
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/26/coronavirus-cdc-117779


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## Tikoo Tuba

It is a strange complicit hysteria ... that is the illness .


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## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> my guess is that the virus is already silently spreading in the US. The problem is that no testing is being done
> https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/26/coronavirus-cdc-117779


OK then wanna guess how it originated here and how it is silently spreading? 8 billion people wanna know.


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## philoctetes

To make my own guess, I'd say all these preventive actions have been too little too late... the virus could have escaped China up to a month ago and mistaken for normal flu in these long-distance transmissions, then it gets passed on... but the problem remains that most of the transmissions we know about ARE traceable and are following the transportation of patients... no guesswork necessary to see that...


----------



## philoctetes

Now dozens of medics in Davis CA are being monitored... Facebook cancels conference in San Jose...


----------



## philoctetes

I prefer to assume for now that the "non-tracable" CV cases have an actual trace that is not very mysterious... the one in CA is in Solano County, not far from Travis... saliva is a pretty dispersive mechanism and we know how contagious flus can be... so follow the long-distance transportation of patients and you'll see new outbreaks jumping those same trajectories...


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## philoctetes

The prevailing attitude I sense is that the public is just ready to bite the bullet and get sick...


----------



## Totenfeier

Just a bit ago I was told of an as-yet unsubstantiated (to MY satisfaction) rumor of a case in Southwestern Virginia - discouragingly close to me. I would have thought the virus would get lost on the wandering country roads of Southwestern Virginia...

Update: Confirmed, sort of. Six people have tested negative in Virginia. Two more cases awaiting results of test: one in Northern VA (crowded) and one in Southwestern VA (not so much).

Don't mind telling you - wondering if my ticket will be punched by this one.


----------



## KenOC

A report from *Iran*, which has more coronavirus deaths than any other country except China. They are having a totally terrible time, infecting their neighbors, with no idea how bad their situation is due to lack of testing kits, official incompetence, the US and banking embargos, etc.


----------



## KenOC

Totenfeier said:


> ...Don't mind telling you - wondering if my ticket will be punched by this one.


Older folks with underlying health conditions... No, doesn't sound like anybody around here! :lol:​


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Do you guys remember the swine flu? That had smaller fatality rate but was way way more infectious, so millions and millions of people got it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

Only if coronavirus gets to this level would I say this disease is really dangerous to the globe. It's quite contagious, but the protective measures taken seem pretty good so far.


----------



## KenOC

From the Chicago Tribune: "The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to clear all statements and public appearance with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, according to several officials familiar with the new approach."

Excellent idea since it worked so well in China. Doctors who speak out of turn will no doubt be threatened with punishment for "spreading false rumors." (/sarcasm)


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> From the Chicago Tribune: "The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to clear all statements and public appearance with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, according to several officials familiar with the new approach."
> 
> Excellent idea since it worked so well in China. Doctors who speak out of turn will no doubt be threatened with punishment for "spreading false rumors." (/sarcasm)


Not quite the same. Official statements need to be that. That being said, do you really think someone here in the U.S. who speaks out of turn really is going to face anywhere near the same consequences as a counterpart in China? Let's calm down on that front.

I have heard that the death rate in China is much higher among men than among women. This correlates (not saying causative) with the MUCH higher rate of cigarette smoking among Chinese men as compared to women. Add to that the already poor air quality in the country and those co-morbidities could help explain the higher mortality rates they are seeing in China (and why it may not be as bad elsewhere). I'd be interested to see whether that same correlation is seen in Iran, where the mortality rate also seems higher. At any rate, the mortality rate, at its highest, still seems to be less than 3%. That isn't nothing, and is higher than for influenza, but that still means a >97% chance of surviving infection.


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> .. At any rate, the mortality rate, at its highest, still seems to be less than 3%. That isn't nothing, and is higher than for influenza, but that still means a >97% chance of surviving infection.


If you are a healthy young adult, the mortality could be less than 1%. If you are older than 70 with pulmonary or cardiac related disease, it could be upwards of 8-10%.


----------



## KenOC

DrMike said:


> Not quite the same. Official statements need to be that. That being said, do you really think someone here in the U.S. who speaks out of turn really is going to face anywhere near the same consequences as a counterpart in China? Let's calm down on that front.
> 
> I have heard that the death rate in China is much higher among men than among women. This correlates (not saying causative) with the MUCH higher rate of cigarette smoking among Chinese men as compared to women. Add to that the already poor air quality in the country and those co-morbidities could help explain the higher mortality rates they are seeing in China (and why it may not be as bad elsewhere). I'd be interested to see whether that same correlation is seen in Iran, where the mortality rate also seems higher. At any rate, the mortality rate, at its highest, still seems to be less than 3%. That isn't nothing, and is higher than for influenza, but that still means a >97% chance of surviving infection.


1. The statement doesn't refer to "official statements" but to "all statements and public appearances", not the same thing.

2. Putting a disbeliever in evolution in charge of a virus control program seems a choice more than just curious.

Meanwhile, a *Seattle-area high school* has been closed after a family member of a staffer became ill after travel and is being tested for COVID-19. It's not known if the school will remain closed for the 5-7 days until test results are returned. A good example of how even fear of the disease can be very disruptive.


----------



## aleazk

Hereby I declare that I will give the sum of ten (10) bucks to KenOC if I die from the coronavirus during the course of the present year. :tiphat:


----------



## KenOC

aleazk said:


> Hereby I declare that I will give the sum of ten (10) bucks to KenOC if I die from the coronavirus during the course of the present year. :tiphat:


I will use it to send flowers. Only a small bouquet at that price, but I suppose the thought counts. :angel:


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## Rogerx

It's 30 minutes drive from where I live now, very scary.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> 1. The statement doesn't refer to "official statements" but to "all statements and public appearances", not the same thing.
> 
> 2. Putting a disbeliever in evolution in charge of a virus control program seems a choice more than just curious.
> .


That seems a bit judgmental. He happens to be the VP. It isn't uncommon for presidents to give such jobs to their VPs. As I recall, Joe Biden was given some tasks that he wasn't particularly qualified for by Obama. At any rate, what does believing in evolution have to do with helping coordinate the response to this virus? I don't see any kind of logical connection other than simply a bias against religious people and thinking we are all a bunch of ignorant fools.


----------



## KenOC

DrMike said:


> That seems a bit judgmental. He happens to be the VP. It isn't uncommon for presidents to give such jobs to their VPs. As I recall, Joe Biden was given some tasks that he wasn't particularly qualified for by Obama. At any rate, what does believing in evolution have to do with helping coordinate the response to this virus? I don't see any kind of logical connection other than simply a bias against religious people and thinking we are all a bunch of ignorant fools.


The science of changes and mutations (for better or worse) among viruses is based on evolutionary theory, and virology often uses observed examples of viral mutations to illustrate evolutionary theory quite convincingly. Basically, a person like Pence disbelieves the accepted theories of viral behavior and that makes me question his qualifications to lead the charge against COVID-19.


----------



## Jacck

DrMike said:


> That seems a bit judgmental. He happens to be the VP. It isn't uncommon for presidents to give such jobs to their VPs. As I recall, Joe Biden was given some tasks that he wasn't particularly qualified for by Obama. At any rate, what does believing in evolution have to do with helping coordinate the response to this virus? I don't see any kind of logical connection other than simply a bias against religious people and thinking we are all a bunch of ignorant fools.


Rapture believing Christians welcome the apocalypse


----------



## DaveM

Pence had a bad record as Governor of Indiana during the HIV epidemic. He was against the distribution of clean needles to decrease its spread among addicts and was known to prefer praying over practical strategy based on science. I’ve got nothing against praying, but I believe, as the saying goes, the Lord helps those who help themselves.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> The science of changes and mutations (for better or worse) among viruses is based on evolutionary theory, and virology often uses observed examples of viral mutations to illustrate evolutionary theory quite convincingly. Basically, a person like Pence disbelieves the accepted theories of viral behavior and that makes me question his qualifications to lead the charge against COVID-19.


That is utter nonsense. Plenty of people who do not believe in macro evolution have no problem in believing in evolution at the level of viruses. Besides - his primary responsibility is working out our response to the virus, not leading the scientific research. Two completely different things.

Incidentally, I'm not sure I would say that viral mutations illustrate evolutionary theory quite convincingly. What we see in viruses is no more than what we see in normal cells regularly, except that they lack the sophisticated error correction machinery that cells have, so their rate of accumulated mutations is much higher. But you aren't really talking about that. You think that because Pence may not believe that all life originated from a common ancestor, that he is unfit to talk about anything "sciency." I assure you I share his pessimism regarding that topic - and yet I have a Ph.D. in Microbiology (my area of emphasis has been immune responses to viral infections) and I can talk at length about viral mutations. Care to chat about it?


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> Pence had a bad record as Governor of Indiana during the HIV epidemic. He was against the distribution of clean needles to decrease its spread among addicts and was known to prefer praying over practical strategy based on science. I've got nothing against praying, but I believe, as the saying goes, the Lord helps those who help themselves.


Mike Pence was governor of Indiana from 2013-2017. That is quite a stretch to label that as part of the "HIV epidemic." By that point, we had quite a good handle on controlling HIV spread. Your making it sound like this was back in the early 80s. And needle distribution programs continue to be controversial - there continue to be unintended consequences of clean needle programs, and it goes above and beyond religious objections.

What - you think he won't tell people to stay home if they are sick, wash their hands regularly, cover their mouths when they cough, etc., because you think - what - his policy is to join everybody in a prayer circle?

I think you all are really just using this as another way to bash Trump and his administration. I have no desire to defend it when it is wrong - but this is really stretching credulity.


----------



## KenOC

DrMike said:


> ...and yet I have a Ph.D. in Microbiology (my area of emphasis has been immune responses to viral infections) and I can talk at length about viral mutations. Care to chat about it?


Eh, no thanks. I'll only observe that Pence, who SFAIK has no truck with the current science of virology, has been put in charge and has said that nobody in gov't can say "boo" without his say-so. I don't find that comforting, not one bit.

Of course people who speak out of turn won't be thrown in jail. But a few comments in their personnel records should put the quietus to their federal careers.


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> Mike Pence was governor of Indiana from 2013-2017. That is quite a stretch to label that as part of the "HIV epidemic." By that point, we had quite a good handle on controlling HIV spread. Your making it sound like this was back in the early 80s. And needle distribution programs continue to be controversial - there continue to be unintended consequences of clean needle programs, and it goes above and beyond religious objections.
> 
> What - you think he won't tell people to stay home if they are sick, wash their hands regularly, cover their mouths when they cough, etc., because you think - what - his policy is to join everybody in a prayer circle?
> 
> I think you all are really just using this as another way to bash Trump and his administration. I have no desire to defend it when it is wrong - but this is really stretching credulity.


Better read up on history. Indiana, particularly Austin, was hit with its own HIV epidemic in 2015. Pence resisted a clean needle exchange program which has been proven to reduce spread of HIV among addicts. After months, as the epidemic continued, he was finally forced to accept it. You're so quick to defend Trump, you respond before checking on the facts.


----------



## schigolch

DrMike said:


> Not quite the same. Official statements need to be that. That being said, do you really think someone here in the U.S. who speaks out of turn really is going to face anywhere near the same consequences as a counterpart in China? Let's calm down on that front.
> 
> I have heard that the death rate in China is much higher among men than among women. This correlates (not saying causative) with the MUCH higher rate of cigarette smoking among Chinese men as compared to women. Add to that the already poor air quality in the country and those co-morbidities could help explain the higher mortality rates they are seeing in China (and why it may not be as bad elsewhere). I'd be interested to see whether that same correlation is seen in Iran, where the mortality rate also seems higher. At any rate, the mortality rate, at its highest, still seems to be less than 3%. That isn't nothing, and is higher than for influenza, but that still means a >97% chance of surviving infection.


When we talk about China, is useful to separate what's happening in Hubei, and in other provinces:


CASESDEATHSMortality rateTOTAL CHINA7882527883,54% HUBEI PROVINCE6602926414,00% OTHER PROVINCES127961471,15% WORLD (EXCLUDING CHINA)4280701,64% TOTAL8310528583,44%

The mortality rate in Hubei is much higher, and I guess this is simply because the health system is overloaded. While the draconian containment measures put in practice by the Chinese authorities have been successful in limiting the spread of the disease to the rest of the country.

The men vs. women mortality (around 65% more in males) is probably related to smoking, yes. Let's see when more facts are available on the matter, outside of China.


----------



## mrdoc

NZ has just confirmed its first case of corona19 it is a male NZer 60yo who tested positive after a trip to Iran so now there is a frantic search to find any contacts he made on his journey home, really! It’s a bit late to my way of thinking once they are in NZ and circulating you have lost any form of control, this must be happening all over the world so now it is just a wee bit serious and the finger must point at pathetic border control.


----------



## Jacck

mrdoc said:


> NZ has just confirmed its first case of corona19 it is a male NZer 60yo who tested positive after a trip to Iran so now there is a frantic search to find any contacts he made on his journey home, really! It's a bit late to my way of thinking once they are in NZ and circulating you have lost any form of control, this must be happening all over the world so now it is just a wee bit serious and the finger must point at pathetic border control.


I was recommending sealing China off more than a month ago in this very thread! The WHO obviously does not read this thread and so did not heed my recommendation and decided that economic interests have a priority. Now it is of course too late. In a couple of weeks we will see major outbreaks all over the world. It cannot be contained, wished or tweeted away.


----------



## Totenfeier

Per Mike Pence, I am relieved to hear from the Resident of the United States Himself that Pence is an "expert" at this kind of thing, mumblemumblemumble, and that we will have a vaccine for this thing by next Tuesday, and it will be a great vaccine, probably the greatest ever, just a great, great vaccine, the best, certainly better that any that Obama could come up with, I hear so many good people, the best people, saying. Florence Nightingale and Jonas Salk are working on it, and they're doing great, great work, let me tell you, so many people, the best people, have told me.


----------



## Guest

Totenfeier said:


> Per Mike Pence, I am relieved to hear from the Resident of the United States Himself that Pence is an "expert" at this kind of thing, mumblemumblemumble, and that we will have a vaccine for this thing by next Tuesday, and it will be a great vaccine, probably the greatest ever, just a great, great vaccine, the best, certainly better that any that Obama could come up with, I hear so many good people, the best people, saying. Florence Nightingale and Jonas Salk are working on it, and they're doing great, great work, let me tell you, so many people, the best people, have told me.


Well it at least doesn't sound quite as ambitious as noted oncologist Joe Biden, Democratic Presidential candidate and former VP, promising that, if he is elected, "we're going to cure cancer."


----------



## philoctetes

I'm not wringing my hands over Pence or Trump... there are many scientists who are religious so I see no special need for a policy maker who isn't... there are very few scientists in DC anyway... when scientists are guessing i.e., "discovering" they can get lost in the trees (stats, theories, etc) and aren't prepared to deal with real-time real-world stuff... I worry more about the CDC which is bungling everything it has control of... but the media and dems are going after Trump instead.. 

I understand Pence does not give a lot of people confidence...but that needle controversy is active right now in SF... to make it effective they've decided they need to create shoot-up shelters in all neighborhoods... well that may not be good health policy either... I don't really think he'll treat the whole US population as if we are just needle users...

There are far more problems in ground-zero execution than DC policy right now IMO...


----------



## philoctetes

The Dems, of course, just want to drive any new money to be allocated in the direction they prefer, where they can "manage" it, so that's why they're making so much noise...


----------



## philoctetes

If I wanted to criticize Pence's role I'd wait to see how he allocates relief as the problem hits inner cities, schools, etc... which has nothing to do with science or religion... and don't be surprised when the media tries to distort this too... or rumors circulate about funds failing to be distributed... agencies will be fighting over the money to the point of staging false flag crises...


----------



## philoctetes

One thing this whole crisis highlights is that effective health care happens at the point of service, or not, and as usual we have to beware of fraud in the system, not at the top, but through the channels...


----------



## philoctetes

Waiting for the first "Conscious Investor Coronavirus Mutual Fund" to appear on my screen...


----------



## Guest

I'm not quite so concerned with whether I'll catch it, although I'm marginally in the at risk population (middle-aged male with diabetes - we have to watch out for most infections), but have never smoked.

What I'm worried about is that I have just taken a new job and am travelling every week - mostly by air. I also fear that if it gets any bigger here in the U.S. that we'll shut schools like elsewhere, and my wife and I have to figure out what to do with our three kids. 

I call it all the Katrina effect - because the government wasn't clairvoyant enough to anticipate all the possible problems that could come from Hurricane Katrina, they now err on the side of over-reaction, because nobody wants to get slapped with the accusation of "not doing enough."


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> I'm not quite so concerned with whether I'll catch it, although I'm marginally in the at risk population (middle-aged male with diabetes - we have to watch out for most infections), but have never smoked.
> 
> What I'm worried about is that I have just taken a new job and am travelling every week - mostly by air. I also fear that if it gets any bigger here in the U.S. that we'll shut schools like elsewhere, and my wife and I have to figure out what to do with our three kids.


The frequent flying is a legitimate concern. I've thought about what I would do in that situation and I'm not a hypochondriacal-type person. I would take travel-size Lysol and sanitizing wipes to clean the tray and arm rests which are apparently the areas with high bacteria/virus counts. I would also take a good mask, not to wear all the time, but to have handy if someone nearby is coughing.


----------



## DaveM

Sign of the times: Purell products are sold out everywhere, but Corona Beer is in stock and not selling well...


----------



## Guest

Here's a very short, easy-to-read article from The Guardian debunking some of the more common coronavirus myths:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-truth-myths-flu-covid-19-face-masks


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> The frequent flying is a legitimate concern. I've thought about what I would do in that situation and I'm not a hypochondriacal-type person. I would take travel-size Lysol and sanitizing wipes to clean the tray and arm rests which are apparently the areas with high bacteria/virus counts. I would also take a good mask, not to wear all the time, but to have handy if someone nearby is coughing.


Masks are not as effective as people may hope. If you are the sick person, then wearing one can help prevent spread. But those paper ones most people wear won't keep out a virus. The better option is the TB masks which filter out a lot more - but they have to properly fit, and if you have facial hair, or have not had a proper fit test, then the efficacy drops off pretty quickly.


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> Masks are not as effective as people may hope. If you are the sick person, then wearing one can help prevent spread. But those paper ones most people wear won't keep out a virus. The better option is the TB masks which filter out a lot more - but they have to properly fit, and if you have facial hair, or have not had a proper fit test, then the efficacy drops off pretty quickly.


The paper masks aren't as effective as people think, but the ones typically used in operating rooms and which you see some people wearing on the streets can help in preventing transmission from droplets which would be my concern if someone is coughing nearby on a plane. I avoid using the paper masks that connect ear-to-ear with elastic bands.


----------



## Phil loves classical

Serious enough to cause stock market turmoil. Luckily I was shorting the market is spots.


----------



## Guest

A new unexplained infection, this time in Santa Clara Country, CA (Silicon Valley). Someone who traveled to an affected region and brought back the bug without bring symptomatic is a possible explanation. In any case, unnerving that the virus seems to be in circulation in the U.S., at least to some extent.


----------



## KenOC

The third case on the West Coast of unknown origin:

"Washington State: a 18-year-old student from Jackson High School in Mill Creek with no travel history to an outbreak area who started feeling ill on Monday Feb. 24 with body aches, chills and a headache. After feeling better, he returned to school, before test results came out on Friday reveal. The school will be closed for a few days of deep disinfecting."


----------



## eljr

Phil loves classical said:


> Serious enough to cause stock market turmoil. Luckily I was shorting the market is spots.


Don't short medical stocks or products like Clorox. :tiphat:


----------



## CnC Bartok

Phil loves classical said:


> Serious enough to cause stock market turmoil. Luckily I was shorting the market is spots.


I am sitting on mine. Lost a LOT of money in terms of face value this week, hoping things will bounce back.....


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## mrdoc

The economic effects makes you wonder about globalisation and putting all your eggs in one basket (China) my first thoughts are that being self sufficient is a great plan B, yes you may have to pay more for socks, shoes cars etc but you will not have high unemployment which in itself costs the country a lot of money. To be quite honest with air and sea travel continuing at pre virus levels I can’t see any way of containing the spread after all the mighty Dollar Pound Euro is the most important thing and must survive all else…


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## Jacck

Coronavirus: Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> Coronavirus: Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again


This is not necessarily because of relapse or re-infection.

It may also reflect some false negative laboratory tests, when patients are declared cured.


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> This is not necessarily because of relapse or re-infection.
> 
> It may also reflect some false negative laboratory tests, when patients are declared cured.


possibly, or maybe a failure of the immune system to clear the virus and development of a chronic persistent infection. We do not know yet the long term consequences of the virus, ie effects on pregnancies etc.


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> possibly, or maybe a failure of the immune system to clear the virus and* development of a chronic persistent infection*. We do not know yet the long term consequences of the virus, ie effects on pregnancies etc.


Let's hope it is not that bad, but of course it is a sign of a protracted course of disease at least for some of the patients.


----------



## Jacck

Trump rallies his base to treat coronavirus as a 'hoax'
this is going to be fun, a fight between a virus and a pathological narcissist caring only about his reelection


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

We may be the victims of diabolical hysteria . The primary purpose is to centralize govt authority ... hmm ... China-style . I'm not sure who in the world is against this movement . It is not useless to any political entity that desires more power .

Oh , I'm against it . I do not trust the powerful to be devoted to kindness .

I will despise your discussion of Trump .


----------



## philoctetes

Politico, the Guardian, etc.. all jackks sources are the anti-Trump hoaxers who cried about Russia for 4 years... no wonder we're so screwed... we don't know anything about the virus he admits but surely we can blame Trump for something!


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Politico, the Guardian, etc.. all jackks sources are the anti-Trump hoaxers who cried about Russia for 4 years... no wonder we're so screwed... we don't know anything about the virus he admits but surely we can blame Trump for something!


the perfect Donald, forever a victim, never admiting any blame, always blaming someone else
Trump Has Sabotaged America's Coronavirus Response
of course any source that is critical of him is "fake news" spread by the liberals. And the virus itself was likely manufactured by Soros to undermine his perfect presidency.


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## philoctetes

Trump will be speaking in less than an hour on CV at 1:30 ET...

"And the virus itself was likely manufactured by Soros to undermine his perfect presidency"

Sarcasm is dangerous, someone might take you seriously and start another hoax!


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Trump will be speaking in less than an hour on CV at 1:30 ET...
> 
> "And the virus itself was likely manufactured by Soros to undermine his perfect presidency"
> 
> Sarcasm is dangerous, someone might take you seriously and start another hoax!


let us make a bet. I will bet that Trump will be unable to have this speech without himself playing a victim, and without blaming the democrats and the fake liberal media for the situation, thus bringing politics into this. And this is certainly not the kind of speech one would expect from a stateman in a time of potential crisis.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> let us make a bet. I will bet that Trump will be unable to have this speech without himself playing a victim, and without blaming the democrats and the fake liberal media for the situation, thus bringing politics into this. And this is certainly not the kind of speech one would expect from a stateman in a time of potential crisis.


You don't even understand how betting works...


----------



## CnC Bartok

No, it's not Soros. Considering he is doing all he can to undermine the Hungarian people and nation, why hasn't he made sure Budapest is swarming with the virus, eh? Missed a golden opportunity hasn't he, or maybe the idea that he and his fellow Jews control the entire world is not actually factual.

You meet a better class of anti-Semite these days.......:devil:


----------



## philoctetes

Meanwhile, leadership from other nations of the world are doing what? Is anybody paying attention or is it just all eyes on Trump and the US?


----------



## philoctetes

CnC Bartok said:


> No, it's not Soros. Considering he is doing all he can to undermine the Hungarian people and nation, why hasn't he made sure Budapest is swarming with the virus, eh? Missed a golden opportunity hasn't he, or maybe the idea that he and his fellow Jews control the entire world is not actually factual.
> 
> You meet a better class of anti-Semite these days.......:devil:


It really is amazing how we get from a virus from China to this so quickly...

Coaches would say "keep your eye on the ball" and over in DC it's "follow the money"... there is no future in making up the future, without a real insider's view...


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## KenOC

The US has its *first coronavirus death*, in Washington state. Details are sketchy.


----------



## Jacck

CnC Bartok said:


> No, it's not Soros. Considering he is doing all he can to undermine the Hungarian people and nation, why hasn't he made sure Budapest is swarming with the virus, eh? Missed a golden opportunity hasn't he, or maybe the idea that he and his fellow Jews control the entire world is not actually factual.
> 
> You meet a better class of anti-Semite these days.......:devil:


I am a little worried that the V4 countries (including Hungary) have no cases yet. I hope it is not our incompetence to diagnose it. But it is already in Vienna and Niderösterreich. And my brother works in Vienna. It will become a little paranoid in the public transportations (subways, trains etc)


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> Trump rallies his base to treat coronavirus as a 'hoax'
> this is going to be fun, a fight between a virus and a pathological narcissist caring only about his reelection


Someone here recently wrote, that the reelection of Trump might turn up to be more dangerous than the CoVID19. I fear he is right.


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> I am a little worried that the V4 countries (including Hungary) have no cases yet. I hope it is not our incompetence to diagnose it. But it is already in Vienna and Niderösterreich. And my brother works in Vienna. It will become a little paranoid in the public transportations (subways, trains etc)


Only a question of time I think. My country got its first (known) case three days ago.


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> Only a question of time I think. My country got its first (known) case three days ago.


yes, it is only a question of time. I wonder how serious it will get, if it will come to city lockdowns like in China and Italy, empty streets, empty shops, services not working. Also, if too many people become sick, then the hospitals will be overloaded beyond capacity. This could get nasty. Hopefully it will not be much more serious than a usual flu epidemic


----------



## philoctetes

So much for all the speculation here... I think anybody who saw the interview with 67yo Carl Goldman should feel somewhat relieved...

And as vague as jackk's predictions were about Trump's press conference, he would have lost the bet by any measure...


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> I'm not wringing my hands over Pence or Trump... there are many scientists who are religious so I see no special need for a policy maker who isn't... there are very few scientists in DC anyway... when scientists are guessing i.e., "discovering" they can get lost in the trees (stats, theories, etc) and aren't prepared to deal with real-time real-world stuff... I worry more about the CDC which is bungling everything it has control of... but the media and dems are going after Trump instead..
> 
> I understand Pence does not give a lot of people confidence...but that needle controversy is active right now in SF... to make it effective they've decided they need to create shoot-up shelters in all neighborhoods... well that may not be good health policy either... I don't really think he'll treat the whole US population as if we are just needle users...
> 
> There are far more problems in ground-zero execution than DC policy right now IMO...


Perhaps you didn't notice that Trump:
Cut funding to the CDC.
Eliminated the Pandemic Response Team
Put Pence in charge of the Coronavirus Task Force after he bungled the HIV epidemic in Indiana.
Claimed today that the his administration has acted faster than anytime in modern history when, in fact, there was no emphasis on getting testing kits to all the states or to assess readiness to handle the most severe cases.
Claimed today that there are 22 cases presently.

Ground zero response emanates from leadership at the topic which is why you don't cut funding to the experts and services that guide ground zero response.


----------



## premont

philoctetes said:


> It really is amazing how we get from a virus from China to this so quickly...


Thanks to industrious jumbojets.


----------



## DaveM

The press conference today was a muddled business. As usual, the emphasis was on patting Trump on the back.

Twice Trump said there were only 22 cases which went uncorrected by the few professionals there.

We were told that the average American doesn’t need a mask (true), but then went on to say that we have 20 million masks available and the task force has contracted with 3M for 30 million more. That’s 50 million masks, quite a number when the seriousness is being downplayed. Who are the 50 million that will need masks?

When asked about his mishandling of the 2015 Indiana HIV local epidemic, Pence said that as soon as the CDC recommended a clean needle exchange program, he acted. Well he didn’t, for 2 months!


----------



## aleazk

deleted .


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> ...Twice Trump said there were only 22 cases which went uncorrected by the few professionals there.


Trump may have been excluding cases imported from the _Diamond Princess_, which accounted yesterday for 44 of the 66 then-recognized cases in the US. With all the shell games going on, accurate counts by nation may be more a matter of opinion than of established fact.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Trump may have been excluding cases imported from the _Diamond Princess_, which accounted yesterday for 44 of the 66 then-recognized cases in the US. With all the shell games going on, accurate counts by nation may be more a matter of opinion than of established fact.


Which is why a press conference meant to inform the nation should not give the impression that the number of cases is such a low number. Even though it is impossible to know the number that are now infected in the USA, but undetected due to showing no symptoms, a lack of testing or isolating cases separate from colds and the flu, it is virtually epidemiologically impossible that there are so few cases here.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> So much for all the speculation here... I think anybody who saw the interview with 67yo Carl Goldman should feel somewhat relieved...
> 
> And as vague as jackk's predictions were about Trump's press conference, he would have lost the bet by any measure...


so listen to this




this is currently live (i was offered it by youtube when searching for the press conference), so go a couple of minutes backwards to hear exactly what I was talking about. He is a poor victim and the Democrats are to blame.


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## DaveM

If I had been at today’s press conference where I was told there were only 22 cases, but one person had just died, my question to Trump would have been, ‘So then our mortality rate here is close to 5%?


----------



## Jacck

The lockdown: One month in Wuhan


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Systems are preparing for a serious and deathly bio-attack . Grossly assuming . Why will
some nations not participate ? Nobody is stupid .


----------



## KenOC

Watching now: A briefing by King County, Washington and State officials on yesterday’s coronavirus death in Seattle…and other developments.

Most worrisome, aside from the inability to trace the origin of current cases, is an apparent outbreak centered in a long-term care facility across the lake from Seattle, in Kirkland. One resident and one health-care worker have been diagnosed, and there are reports of others associated with the facility who are showing flu-like symptoms. No further information on that now.

The good news is that diagnostic tests can be done locally, with results available within a day.

Added: Oh-oh, read this.
---------------------------------------------
The man who died was in his 50s, had underlying health conditions and no history of travel or contact with a known COVID-19 case, health officials in Washington state said at a news conference. A spokesperson for Evergreen Health Medical Center, Kayse Dahl, said the person died in the facility in the Seattle suburb of Kirkland.

The health officials reported two cases of COVID-19 virus connected to a long-term care facility in the same suburb, Life Care Center of Kirkland. One is a Life Care worker, a woman in her 40s who is in satisfactory condition at a hospital, and the other is a woman in her 70s and a resident at Life Care who is hospitalized in serious condition. Neither have traveled out of the country. 

“In addition, over 50 individuals associated with Life Care are reportedly ill with respiratory symptoms or hospitalized with pneumonia or other respiratory conditions of unknown cause and are being tested for COVID-19,” Seattle and King County officials said. “Additional positive cases are expected.”

Amy Reynolds of the Washington state health department said in a brief telephone interview: “We are dealing with an emergency evolving situation.”


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## Jacck

^^^ that looks bad. If they have so many cases without a known origin and without travel history, it means the virus has been spreading stealthily for weeks and hundreds could already be infected. It could be like the outbreak in Italy in a couple of days. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oming-europe-struggles-to-contain-coronavirus
this is going to be a real test of the preparedness of the western healthcare systems


----------



## schigolch

It looks certainly worrisome.

In the case of Italy, it was a monumental failure. The key component of the response to the virus was containtment. To identify and trace all transmissions. However, there were patients with pneumonia of unknown origin at hospitals for a week, and they were not tested for coronavirus, if you can believe it.


----------



## Jacck

schigolch said:


> It looks certainly worrisome.
> 
> In the case of Italy, it was a monumental failure. The key component of the response to the virus was containtment. To identify and trace all transmissions. However, there were patients with pneumonia of unknown origin at hospitals for a week, and they were not tested for coronavirus, if you can believe it.


I read some Czech guidelines for the testing, and here they also test only people with respiratory symptoms and a travel history to the risk countries. But the disease could come here through someone asymptomatic who has been there, and spread it to other people. Those get sick, but do not have a travel history. The guidelines are silly. It could have been something similar in Italy. They simply did not connect the dots.


----------



## DaveM

If limited testing available:
Otherwise healthy young adult comes into emergency room with nasal congestion, wet cough, sore throat, no shortness of breath and mild fever: likely no need to test. 
Adult over 65 with history of cardiac and or pulmonary disease, no nasal congestion or sore throat, headache, dry cough, fever and mild shortness of breath: test right away, consider hospitalization if in doubt.


----------



## KenOC

The lack of test kits is a problem everywhere. It has been exacerbated by the discovery that the CDC's prior shipments had been of defective kits with compromised reliability.

I seem to have read recently that (at the time) there were only about 400 kits available in the entire state of California.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> Perhaps you didn't notice that Trump:
> Cut funding to the CDC.
> Eliminated the Pandemic Response Team
> Put Pence in charge of the Coronavirus Task Force after he bungled the HIV epidemic in Indiana.
> Claimed today that the his administration has acted faster than anytime in modern history when, in fact, there was no emphasis on getting testing kits to all the states or to assess readiness to handle the most severe cases.
> Claimed today that there are 22 cases presently.
> 
> Ground zero response emanates from leadership at the topic which is why you don't cut funding to the experts and services that guide ground zero response.


You like to tout the talking point about Pence. It was not an epidemic. It was a statistical blip. A significant uptick in cases in a particular part of the state due to people injecting drugs. And then he signed the order to allow the distribution of needles. It was a nothing story that is now being blown out of proportion because Democrats are trying to turn the coronavirus outbreak into a political hammer to hit Trump with - and you are more than happy to be hooked by them and regurgitate whatever they feed you.


----------



## Guest

At the risk of being shouted down - you all are a bunch of catastrophists with too much time on your hands. Look, it is a new virus. It is going to run rampant for a while, like SARS did. But based on the family of viruses this comes from and what we know about similar viruses, this is likely to flame out. Do you realize just how few cases there actually are in the world? Have we even hit 100 in the U.S.? And the number in China is a statistically insignificant number, most concentrated in one region. There are so many other viruses out there that are much more deadly and have a lot higher incidence rates than COVID-19 that you guys aren't panicking about. This obsession - treating it like the plague or HIV or Ebola, like this is going to be the death of us all. It isn't. It is a respiratory infection that can potentially cause death, but most people who catch it will likely experience cold like symptoms, or possibly flu-like symptoms, and then get over it.

This feels a lot like the Y2K hysteria.


----------



## KenOC

DrMike said:


> At the risk of being shouted down - you all are a bunch of catastrophists with too much time on your hands...


It seems to me that when you have something (by the numbers at least) as infective as the flu and with 20-30 times the mortality rate, a little concern is not misplaced.


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> At the risk of being shouted down - you all are a bunch of catastrophists with too much time on your hands. Look, it is a new virus. It is going to run rampant for a while, like SARS did. But based on the family of viruses this comes from and what we know about similar viruses, this is likely to flame out. Do you realize just how few cases there actually are in the world? Have we even hit 100 in the U.S.? And the number in China is a statistically insignificant number, most concentrated in one region. There are so many other viruses out there that are much more deadly and have a lot higher incidence rates than COVID-19 that you guys aren't panicking about. This obsession - treating it like the plague or HIV or Ebola, like this is going to be the death of us all. It isn't. It is a respiratory infection that can potentially cause death, but most people who catch it will likely experience cold like symptoms, or possibly flu-like symptoms, and then get over it.


So who is treating this like the plague, HIV or Ebola? You should immediately call up and ask to be on Pence's task force because you have the same skewed perspective when it comes to Covid-19. Take a look at the world map where it has been reported. It has spread to many countries in a short period time, little is still known about it, has limited ways to test for it at the moment, there is no way to treat it and it can kill elderly people with health problems sometimes quickly.

So, yes, there's no reason for people to be unnecessarily frightened, but they do need to be honestly educated about it and there needs to be adequate testing available sooner than later. If you think the Trump administration is up to the task so far, you are sadly mistaken.

(Edited after a cooling off period.)


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Hysteria is serious , even when half-ash . Burn it , baby ! Vote .


----------



## mrdoc

We have just let in a lady that has been in Italy and requested that she be tested as she did not want to put her family in danger but the request was denied????? just how stupid can you get, I would say there is no way we can stop the spread with this mind set.
So cross your fingers have another red and hang on...


----------



## schigolch

I guess this is because the problem with the number of testing kits. Also, if the lady was for instance in Southern Italy, the risk was much smaller. And I guess she was not presenting any symptoms.


----------



## perempe

yesterday I attended MÁV SO's concert in Italian Institute (Budapest). I wanted to go into the restroom before the concert, but inside a chinese man, who wore suits, coughed heavily, he seemed to be really sick. he turned out to be the guest conductor!


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> I read some Czech guidelines for the testing, and here they also *test only people with respiratory symptoms and a travel history to the risk countries.* But the disease could come here through someone asymptomatic who has been there, and spread it to other people. Those get sick, but do not have a travel history. The guidelines are silly. It could have been something similar in Italy. They simply did not connect the dots.


These are the guidelines in my country too, so I suspect this is true of many other countries. You are absolutely right that they are silly. Perhaps they were made in the beginning, when the number of silent infections was underestimated.


----------



## Guest

More common sense reporting from The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...virus-dr-jonathan-quick-q-and-a-laura-spinney


----------



## Jacck

the CDC messed up pretty badly
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...d-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

meanwhile, we have our first 3 cases, all of them were in Northern Italy, one of them is an american student on a trip over Europe


----------



## KenOC

There's a growing cluster of cases in Washington, now eight in total, all in northern King County and adjacent southern Snohomish County. This could be the first community-based outbreak in the US. Here's what the *Washington Post* says:

"The novel coronavirus has probably been spreading undetected for about six weeks in Washington state, where the first U.S. death was reported this weekend. A genetic analysis suggests that the cases are linked through community transmission and that this has been going on for weeks, with hundreds of infections likely in the state."


----------



## DaveM

Recent info:
Children seem to be escaping (relatively) serious symptoms -good news for those with children in pre-school and grade school.
Elderly people with pre-existing conditions seem to be not only more susceptible to serious respiratory sequelae, but also are more likely to show obvious disease.
Apparently the CDC got the genome of the virus early on, but failed to act quickly with the info and then test kits that were eventually sent out were faulty (not clear who is responsible for the latter, but probably a lab).


----------



## Luchesi

Gasoline has fallen below 2 dollars a gallon here, because of the virus.

OPEC will slash output.


----------



## KenOC

Due to the problems with the test kits, their use has necessarily been rationed. This had an involvement in the case of that fellow in Solano County, CA, who is now thought to be the first community-based victim in the US. He presented with symptoms but no history of recent overseas travel or contact with another known case. So by policy he wasn’t tested and was hospitalized for several days with droplet protection measures but no aerosol protection measures. Thus the medical staff was exposed.

Today it has been announced that two of the medical staff who tended him are infected. There may well be others in subsequent days.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Due to the problems with the test kits, their use has necessarily been rationed. This had an involvement in the case of that fellow in Solano County, CA, who is now thought to be the first community-based victim in the US. He presented with symptoms but no history of recent overseas travel or contact with another known case. So by policy he wasn't tested and was hospitalized for several days with droplet protection measures but no aerosol protection measures. Thus the medical staff was exposed.
> 
> Today it has been announced that two of the medical staff who tended him are infected. There may well be others in subsequent days.


I've noticed today that people are being told, even by medical personnel, that masks are of little use to people in general. I disagree insofar that if I were in a situation where I am in close contact with people on a regular basis such as in an office with a lot of people, in a plane, on a bus or subway, I would want to have a mask handy if someone was coughing nearby. In your story above, if the medical staff had known this patient was infected or possibly infected, they would have worn masks.


----------



## KenOC

The Seattle-area cluster is growing rapidly. *Cases are up* from 8 this morning to 13, with an additional death. We may have our own little Italy centered there. Scary! I'm due to travel to Seattle in two weeks...


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> The Seattle-area cluster is growing rapidly. *Cases are up* from 8 this morning to 13, with an additional death. We may have our own little Italy centered there. Scary! I'm due to travel to Seattle in two weeks...


How about stopping off in Solano County on the way.


----------



## KenOC

Here's one of several pictures a family friend in south Snohomish County sent of her ravaged grocery store. Obviously folks there are getting nervous.


----------



## aleazk

Interesting New Yorker article about the Spanish flu pandemic: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1997/09/29/the-dead-zone?utm_campaign=falcon


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> I've noticed today that people are being told, even by medical personnel, that masks are of little use to people in general. I disagree insofar that if I were in a situation where I am in close contact with people on a regular basis such as in an office with a lot of people, in a plane, on a bus or subway, I would want to have a mask handy if someone was coughing nearby. In your story above, if the medical staff had known this patient was infected or possibly infected, they would have worn masks.


------------------------------------------------
Americans worried about the coronavirus outbreak shouldn't buy face masks to protect themselves against it because the masks are ineffective for those without symptoms -- and the purchases deplete the supplies available for medical professionals, the U.S. surgeon general said Saturday.

"Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!" Dr. Jerome M. Adams wrote on Twitter, addressing fears over the spread of the virus in the U.S. "They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can't get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!"


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> ------------------------------------------------
> Americans worried about the coronavirus outbreak shouldn't buy face masks to protect themselves against it because the masks are ineffective for those without symptoms -- and the purchases deplete the supplies available for medical professionals, the U.S. surgeon general said Saturday.
> 
> "Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!" Dr. Jerome M. Adams wrote on Twitter, addressing fears over the spread of the virus in the U.S. "They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can't get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!"


That is, again IMO, an overstatement. Physicians wear masks all the time where there is possible aerosol/droplet spread from coughing patients. That includes being in a confined room or area where there might be, for instance, TB and the like. I'm willing to bet that if ole Dr. Adams is anywhere near a coughing person he'll put on a mask. On the other hand, I don't think people need to be wearing masks whenever they go outside or to a store, unless they are coughing and suspect they have a virus and are headed to public areas or somesuch. I certainly don't ordinarily wear a mask, but I carry a mask in the car in case of situations I've mentioned.


----------



## Jacck

the good news is that Africa so far seems to be largely spared from the virus, which could indicate that the virus does not like warm weather, and with the coming summer and spring, the virus spread might be stopped. Of course it might then come back in the autumn with a vengeance.


----------



## mrdoc

I saw on the news today a shot of the Pope coughing his heart out trying to address a crowd at some meeting or other.


----------



## starthrower

Dear Colleagues,

As some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources.

The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.

Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:

1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.

2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.

3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.

5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.

6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.

7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!

What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:
1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.
Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it. Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available.
I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email. Good luck to all of us!

Jim
James Robb, MD FCAP


----------



## haydnguy

One question that I haven't heard mentioned is, if a vaccine is developed who will pay for it?

Drug companies don't do anything if there is not a market for it. A market who can "pay". 

If the cost of these drugs is "sky high", will insurance companies pay for them? They, of course, would balk which would delay any payment to drug companies. 

People who could not afford the drugs have no way to be vaccinated. Plus, what about those who won't vaccinate their "little johnny or little suzy" because vaccines are "bad for us". I'm not actually referring to children here but what about those who refuse vaccines?


----------



## Jacck

^^^ Not sure how it works in the US, but we have laws to deal with various emergencies including epidemics. Here you can even quarantine someone against their will (similar to involuntary commitment in psychiatry) if they have an infectious disease and they could be a threat in spreading it. And you can even treat someone against his will (if a court says yes). Concerning the financing, it is not an issue here, since the universal healthcare covers it.

yes, the US has similar laws
https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantineisolation.html


----------



## DaveM

starthrower said:


> Dear Colleagues,
> 
> As some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources...


Excellent post. Thanks for taking the time. I am following virtually all your suggestions. (Btw, it is hard to get alcohol-based wipes and hand sanitizers in stores or on-line right now.) There are all sorts of situations where one is touching surfaces that several people already have touched during the day. You address how to handle most of those. I've even started carrying a pencil around to tap in my password at check stands. (They started getting upset when I started spraying Lysol on the keypad...joking )

As someone who has spent a career sometimes at close quarters with people with infective diseases -including during the various virus epidemics and the influx of mycobacterium, particularly TB during the initial large immigration from China several years ago, capable of being transmitted by coughing/sneezing- I am a believer in a well-applied surgical mask if someone is coughing nearby. While I agree that all bets are off for a sneeze directly at one's face, I was protected from patients with miliary TB coughing into mine.  So, contrary to what 'experts' are saying on TV, as someone who can't afford the risk of an acute pulmonary assault, I will use a mask when at relatively close quarters with someone coughing out in public, but, generally, I won't be walking around in public with one on.


----------



## haydnguy

Jacck said:


> ^^^ Not sure how it works in the US, but we have laws to deal with various emergencies including epidemics. Here you can even quarantine someone against their will (similar to involuntary commitment in psychiatry) if they have an infectious disease and they could be a threat in spreading it. And you can even treat someone against his will (if a court says yes). Concerning the financing, it is not an issue here, since the universal healthcare covers it.
> 
> yes, the US has similar laws
> https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantineisolation.html


Given today's political climate and social media, isolating people against their will would be horrifying to many people. Very different situation than 100 years ago. Mandatory quarantining would bring about a crises of it's own.

The only answer to who will pay is the federal government. The drug companies won't even begin to develop unless they know there is a market. Also, there will be huge cost to the drug companies because they must stop work on existing research as they shift resources to the vaccine research. That means the revenue they could get from their existing research would be deferred (at the very least).

I would like to hear our politicians address this.


----------



## Jacck

haydnguy said:


> Given today's political climate and social media, isolating people against their will would be horrifying to many people. Very different situation than 100 years ago. Quarantining would bring about a crises of it's own.
> 
> The only answer to who will pay is the federal government. The drug companies won't even begin to develop unless they know there is a market. Also, there will be huge cost to the drug companies because they must stop work on existing research as they shift resources to the vaccine research. That means the revenue they could get from their existing research would be deferred (at the very least).
> 
> I would like to hear our politicians address this.


of course there is market - 6 billion people. The companies are racing who will be the first to reap the huge profits. The vaccine is not the issue now. Many companies are racing to be the first to supply it to the world.

and concerning the mandaroty quarantining. 
An American Evacuated From China Was Quarantined on CDC Orders, Then Got a Bill for It
this is incredible.

The Republicans are seriously sick people
How the Senate Paved the Way for Coronavirus Profiteering, and How Congress Could Undo It


----------



## premont

starthrower said:


> ... will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!


Is this a qualified guess based upon other coronavira (e.g. common cold vira), or do we have tests showing how long time this new coronavirus can live outside the body?


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> Is this a qualified guess based upon other coronavira (e.g. common cold vira), or do we have tests showing how long time this new coronavirus can live outside the body?


https://medicalnewsbulletin.com/how-long-does-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces/
9 days, which is bad


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> https://medicalnewsbulletin.com/how-long-does-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces/
> 9 days, which is bad


Thanks, yes very bad. This may prove to be even more serious than the silent infections.


----------



## haydnguy

Jacck said:


> of course there is market - 6 billion people. The companies are racing who will be the first to reap the huge profits. The vaccine is not the issue now. Many companies are racing to be the first to supply it to the world.
> 
> and concerning the mandaroty quarantining.
> An American Evacuated From China Was Quarantined on CDC Orders, Then Got a Bill for It
> this is incredible.
> 
> The Republicans are seriously sick people
> How the Senate Paved the Way for Coronavirus Profiteering, and How Congress Could Undo It


There are a lot of mentally ill people out there too. The reason why there isn't more research/medicine is because the drug companies deem these people as not able to hold jobs, etc., thus not having the ability to pay.

In the U.S. the tendency is to underestimate the amorality of the drug companies. They are about business not health. This has to be addressed. Just because there are a billion people means nothing in my mind, at least to the U.S. (Where I live.) What percentage of the billion people can afford a very high priced drug? Not a lot in the U.S. Again, will insurance companies pay for this? (In the U.S.) That makes a huge difference.

In countries that have national health insurance it's not an issue. In the U.S. it is at 'front and center'.


----------



## DaveM

haydnguy said:


> In countries that have national health insurance it's not an issue. In the U.S. it is at 'front and center'.


While drugs are generally less expensive in countries other than the U.S., they are not always generally covered by national health insurance. Canada is an example.


----------



## Jacck

haydnguy said:


> There are a lot of mentally ill people out there too. The reason why there isn't more research/medicine is because the drug companies deem these people as not able to hold jobs, etc., thus not having the ability to pay.
> 
> In the U.S. the tendency is to underestimate the amorality of the drug companies. They are about business not health. This has to be addressed. Just because there are a billion people means nothing in my mind, at least to the U.S. (Where I live.) What percentage of the billion people can afford a very high priced drug? Not a lot in the U.S. Again, will insurance companies pay for this? (In the U.S.) That makes a huge difference.
> 
> In countries that have national health insurance it's not an issue. In the U.S. it is at 'front and center'.


I do not understand why the richest country in the world was unable to implement a universal healthcare, which is demonstrably far superior to any for profit privatized system. And the coronavirus pandemic is going to make this clear. I read that people receive huge surprise medical bills for the coronavirus testing. Poor people will refuse to get tested. Sick people will not visit a hospital for fear of the cost. All of this will contribute to the spread of the virus among the poor communities. Now it would be a good time for Trump to come and say, that government will cover all the testing, because it is in public interest.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> https://medicalnewsbulletin.com/how-long-does-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces/
> 9 days, which is bad


That's a good article. Some people may have to settle for Benzalkonium and Benzethonium sanitizers as better than nothing since, at the moment, alcohol-based wipes and sanitizers are very hard to get. Also, the virus lives longer on non-porous surfaces so things like clothing, cardboard, paper etc. probably don't support it for very long. Nice to know when you get that package from China...


----------



## KenOC

The virus is starting to take off in the US. New cases are reported all over, and the latest counts I’ve seen are 96 cases and six deaths. 18 cases and five deaths are in the Seattle cluster*, with four new deaths in recent hours. Several cases and four deaths are associated with a long-term care facility in Kirkland; more than 50 other people possibly exposed in the facility are being tested, and more cases are expected.

*As of an hour ago, there are six deaths in the Seattle cluster.


----------



## CnC Bartok

starthrower said:


> Dear Colleagues,
> 
> As some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources.
> 
> The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.
> 
> Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:
> 
> 1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.
> 
> 2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.
> 
> 3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.
> 
> 4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.
> 
> 5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.
> 
> 6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.
> 
> 7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!
> 
> What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:
> 1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.
> Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.
> 
> 2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.
> 
> 3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.
> 
> 4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.
> 
> I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it. Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available.
> I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email. Good luck to all of us!
> 
> Jim
> James Robb, MD FCAP


Kudos, Sir! ,...............:tiphat:


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Jacck said:


> I do not understand why the richest country in the world was unable to implement a universal healthcare, which is demonstrably far superior to any for profit privatized system. And the coronavirus pandemic is going to make this clear. I read that people receive huge surprise medical bills for the coronavirus testing. Poor people will refuse to get tested. Sick people will not visit a hospital for fear of the cost. All of this will contribute to the spread of the virus among the poor communities. Now it would be a good time for Trump to come and say, that government will cover all the testing, because it is in public interest.


The way the VA healthcare system points out why most Americans do not want a universal healthcare system.


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> That's a good article. Some people may have to settle for Benzalkonium and Benzethonium sanitizers as better than nothing since, at the moment, alcohol-based wipes and sanitizers are very hard to get. Also, the virus lives longer on non-porous surfaces so things like clothing, cardboard, paper etc. probably don't support it for very long. Nice to know when you get that package from China...


the desinfectants here are sold out too. Fortunately, many people here have some home-made Slivovitz for both, external and internal desinfection


----------



## aleazk

Jacck said:


> I do not understand why the richest country in the world was unable to implement a universal healthcare, which is demonstrably far superior to any for profit privatized system. And the coronavirus pandemic is going to make this clear. I read that people receive huge surprise medical bills for the coronavirus testing. Poor people will refuse to get tested. Sick people will not visit a hospital for fear of the cost. All of this will contribute to the spread of the virus among the poor communities. Now it would be a good time for Trump to come and say, that government will cover all the testing, because it is in public interest.


Two words: Republican party.


----------



## Sad Al

Yeah, NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, Open doors with your closed fist or hipetc. 'Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances'... etc. etc. 'Stock up now with zinc lozenges, disposable surgical masks, hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves .' Indeed.
I'll just keep a bottle of Scotch.
'Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it.'
Good.

R. Baermann, MSc only


----------



## haydnguy

Jacck said:


> I do not understand why the richest country in the world was unable to implement a universal healthcare, which is demonstrably far superior to any for profit privatized system. And the coronavirus pandemic is going to make this clear. I read that people receive huge surprise medical bills for the coronavirus testing. Poor people will refuse to get tested. Sick people will not visit a hospital for fear of the cost. All of this will contribute to the spread of the virus among the poor communities. Now it would be a good time for Trump to come and say, that government will cover all the testing, because it is in public interest.


It is one point of many why the U.S. has fallen into relative decline (compared to the rest of the world).

Consider this (hypothetical but probably happens hourly if not more everyday).

I drive up to the pharmacy "drive-thru" with a prescription bottle that has 3 refills on it (total). With my insurance I have a $20 copay. ($20.00 per refill)

The guy in the car behind me pulls up with the exact same prescription. The cash price is $500 per refill. So for me, these 3 refills will cost $60.00. For the guy behind me it will cost $1,500. Who on this earth can say this is fair?


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> I do not understand why the richest country in the world was unable to implement a universal healthcare, which is demonstrably far superior to any for profit privatized system. And the coronavirus pandemic is going to make this clear. I read that people receive huge surprise medical bills for the coronavirus testing. Poor people will refuse to get tested. Sick people will not visit a hospital for fear of the cost. All of this will contribute to the spread of the virus among the poor communities. Now it would be a good time for Trump to come and say, that government will cover all the testing, because it is in public interest.


It's hard to defend the fact that we don't have a far better healthcare system than we have. It hasn't helped that Trump has gutted Obamacare that was potentially on its way to providing a better system. California continues to make the best of Obamacare -damn well better given the taxes! One thing to keep in mind is that our country consists of what can be simplistically looked on as 50 different countries each of which is very different and with its own -in many ways- relative independence. California has a greater population than Canada.


----------



## Jacck

haydnguy said:


> It is one point of many why the U.S. has fallen into relative decline (compared to the rest of the world).
> 
> Consider this (hypothetical but probably happens hourly if not more everyday).
> 
> I drive up to the pharmacy "drive-thru" with a prescription bottle that has 3 refills on it (total). With my insurance I have a $20 copay. ($20.00 per refill)
> 
> The guy in the car behind me pulls up with the exact same prescription. The cash price is $500 per refill. So for me, these 3 refills will cost $60.00. For the guy behind me it will cost $1,500. Who on this earth can say this is fair?


most of the useful medicaments are dirt cheap to produce and are being produced in China. You are being systematically ripped off. When I was in the US, a friend of mine (girl) got an urinary infection and went to a doctor. 5 minutes there, no actual testing done, gave her some common antibiotic (that costs 10 cents to produce) and she got charged $350.


----------



## KenOC

haydnguy said:


> ...I drive up to the pharmacy "drive-thru" with a prescription bottle that has 3 refills on it (total). With my insurance I have a $20 copay. ($20.00 per refill)
> 
> The guy in the car behind me pulls up with the exact same prescription. The cash price is $500 per refill. So for me, these 3 refills will cost $60.00. For the guy behind me it will cost $1,500. Who on this earth can say this is fair?


Maybe fair, maybe not. I buy collision insurance for my car. It gets damaged. I pay $250, the deductible. The other guy doesn't buy insurance. He's out the full cost of the repair, $2,500. Fair? You tell me.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Maybe fair, maybe not. I buy collision insurance for my car. It gets damaged. I pay $250, the deductible. The other guy doesn't buy insurance. He's out the full cost of the repair, $2,500. Fair? You tell me.


One is born to a rich family, another is not (this is karma). One can have various inborn conditions such as a cystic fibrosis. Certain people will NEVER be profitable for any health insurace company. They will only produce costs. The hole idea of profit in a healthcare system is bad. The for profit system is based on greed. Why do you think that your healthcare system costs triple the money of other countries, while producing worse results on many health indicators? Yes, profit. But not for the people. Healthy population is a public good.


----------



## Guest

haydnguy said:


> It is one point of many why the U.S. has fallen into relative decline (compared to the rest of the world).
> 
> Consider this (hypothetical but probably happens hourly if not more everyday).
> 
> I drive up to the pharmacy "drive-thru" with a prescription bottle that has 3 refills on it (total). With my insurance I have a $20 copay. ($20.00 per refill)
> 
> The guy in the car behind me pulls up with the exact same prescription. The cash price is $500 per refill. So for me, these 3 refills will cost $60.00. For the guy behind me it will cost $1,500. Who on this earth can say this is fair?


You leave out all of the variables. How much have you and your company paid in monthly premiums compared to that person paying full price?

Pray tell - in what ways have we fallen into relative decline?


----------



## haydnguy

KenOC said:


> Maybe fair, maybe not. I buy collision insurance for my car. It gets damaged. I pay $250, the deductible. The other guy doesn't buy insurance. He's out the full cost of the repair, $2,500. Fair? You tell me.


This is part of what is at the heart of the health care debate.

What I"m saying still stands, in my view. The difference between a car and a human being couldn't be greater.

In pure capitalism, there would be no difference. However, some believe there is an ethical element to health care. Because health care deals with human life which can't be measured in dollars and cents.

In pure capitalism, there is no distinguishing services. Services by the Red Cross, churches, etc., could not be deducted from taxes because there is no moral element (in capitalism).


----------



## starthrower

For those who commented or posed questions concerning my post, I am not Dr. Robb. This was posted on Facebook by a person I respect, so I'm just passing it along.


----------



## haydnguy

DrMike said:


> You leave out all of the variables. How much have you and your company paid in monthly premiums compared to that person paying full price?
> 
> Pray tell - in what ways have we fallen into relative decline?


I was just talking with a friend yesterday who had to go into the hospital a couple of months ago for 4 days. He and his wife are both disabled. He is on oxygen for 24 hours (around the clock).

He told me that the hospital bill would have been about $72,000. He has V.A. insurance and they let him go to a regular hospital near where he lived. Between what the V.A. paid and what Medicare paid, he was left with a bill of about $1,500.

As you know, the "business" of medical care is complicated. It's not always one patient, one bill correlation when it comes to patients in a hospital. Often times, one patient with insurance helps pay for the guy in the next room with no insurance.

There is one thing I would truly like to know however. How does the health care system justify the huge run up in price over the last 20 years when the overall inflation rate has been SO much less. How?


----------



## DaveM

*Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents.
*
Kampf G1, Todt D2, Pfaender S2, Steinmann E2.
Author information
*Abstract*
Currently, the emergence of a novel human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has become a global health concern causing severe respiratory tract infections in humans. Human-to-human transmissions have been described with incubation times between 2-10 days, facilitating its spread via droplets, contaminated hands or surfaces. We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for SARS-CoV-2, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread.
------------

The above overview suggests that Benzalkonium isn't ineffective, just less effective than alcohol and peroxide so I'll be using it if it is all that is available.


----------



## Jacck

it is killing even politicians
Adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader dies after contracting coronavirus


----------



## KenOC

haydnguy said:


> ...There is one thing I would truly like to know however. How does the health care system justify the huge run up in price over the last 20 years when the overall inflation rate has been SO much less. How?


One answer: Health care costs more because it _does _more, year after year. My own example: A major spinal compression fracture due to a fall. Intense pain, meds made no difference. After an MRI, a new procedure, kyphoplasty, was recommended. This is a radiosurgery where two small holes are drilled in the collapsed vertabra and a type of cement is pumped in, carefully monitored on a fluoroscope to ensure the vertabra gets back to the exact right height. Then two bandaids are all that's necessary to patch the holes.

I woke up and walked away from the table with almost no pain. Within two or three days the pain was gone entirely. Just a few years ago, I would have been condemned to intense pain for the rest of my life.

Might mention that I'm also looking forward to treatment of band keratopathy (a condition causing a cloudy cornea) and then cataract surgery, both by excimer laser. Well, those have been around for a while but they're terribly expensive.

So - MRI, radiosurgery, kyphoplasty, laser eye surgery - all bring major benefits through costly treatments. All were developed by people because they figured they could make money on them. None existed in my younger years. Am I happy they exist? Yes. Are they worth their costs? Yes, to me.

Of course health care might cost less if they hadn't been developed, but I'm not sure I'd choose that alternative!


----------



## starthrower

Ken, what you just described is definitely worth the cost. And I'm glad you're not condemned to a life of misery. 

Two years ago my wife was assaulted by a thug in the middle of the afternoon while taking a walk. She suffered a triple fracture to her face. After a trip to one hospital where they did a CT scan, we were informed that we needed to go to another hospital that had an ENT specialist. We waited for two hours until a doctor arrived to say he looked at the photos and he didn't recommend surgery and that her bones would heal okay on their own. No actual treatment was administered. For this service we were charged two thousand dollars. The first hospital provided no treatment other than the scan which is a separate charge. A week later we had to go see another ENT surgeon that did recommend surgery which my wife declined. 

This unfortunate incident happened one week after we were married. And two weeks after I herniated a disc in my back. My wife had no insurance at the time so we ended up with a five thousand dollar bill. And as I stated, no actual medical procedures or care was administered. Two thousand dollars each for two short trips to the ER. It seems a bit excessive to me but maybe this is the norm? The other thousand was for the follow up visits to the surgeon and an opthalmologist. Fortunately, New York state offers assistance to residents who are the victims of violent crime so the state picked up the tab. Those uninsured in other states may not be so fortunate.

But getting back to the virus outbreak, it has already been mentioned in various news articles that the situation in the US is not conducive to containing the spread of this infectious disease due to a number of factors including insufficient insurance coverage which will discourage people from seeking medical attention, and employers who don't pay sick days or punish employees for staying home. Two significant factors that could lead to the virus spreading more rapidly rather than being contained. The other problem is citizens listening to Trump down playing the seriousness of the situation. I've already encountered this talking to my 85 year old father who thinks it's no big deal and that he doesn't need to protect his hands when pumping gas or going to the gym. Ugh!


----------



## KenOC

starthrower said:


> ...This unfortunate incident happened one week after we were married. And two weeks after I herniated a disc in my back. My wife had no insurance at the time so we ended up with a five thousand dollar bill. And as I stated, no actual medical procedures or care was administered. Two thousand dollars each for two short trips to the ER. It seems a bit excessive to me but maybe this is the norm?


Health care insurers, whom we all love to hate, have actually been pretty good at holding health care costs down - for their members. But somebody has to pick up the costs of indigents and other non-payers, who are numerous. That somebody seems to be mostly the uninsured who are willing and able to pay, however painfully. So they might pay three or five times as much for a procedure as the hospital would collect from an insurer on behalf of one of its members. Really, this makes no sense and is patently unfair.

Obamacare has addressed this situation - somewhat - by providing a separate insurance marketplace and a very meaningful subsidy for insurance bought by low-income people.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> One answer: Health care costs more because it _does _more, year after year. My own example: A major spinal compression fracture due to a fall. Intense pain, meds made no difference. After an MRI, a new procedure, kyphoplasty, was recommended. This is a radiosurgery where two small holes are drilled in the collapsed vertabra and a type of cement is pumped in, carefully monitored on a fluoroscope to ensure the vertabra gets back to the exact right height. Then two bandaids are all that's necessary to patch the holes.
> 
> I woke up and walked away from the table with almost no pain. Within two or three days the pain was gone entirely. Just a few years ago, I would have been condemned to intense pain for the rest of my life.
> 
> Might mention that I'm also looking forward to treatment of band keratopathy (a condition causing a cloudy cornea) and then cataract surgery, both by excimer laser. Well, those have been around for a while but they're terribly expensive.
> 
> So - MRI, radiosurgery, kyphoplasty, laser eye surgery - all bring major benefits through costly treatments. All were developed by people because they figured they could make money on them. None existed in my younger years. Am I happy they exist? Yes. Are they worth their costs? Yes, to me.
> 
> Of course health care might cost less if they hadn't been developed, but I'm not sure I'd choose that alternative!


Great story! Yes, it bears repeating that the limitations of our healthcare system notwithstanding, the average citizen gets good to great care and has access to some of the very latest advances.


----------



## KenOC

Dr. Matt McCarthy, a staff physician at New York-Presbyterian, on *testing woes*:

"I'm here to tell you, right now, at one of the busiest hospitals in the country, I don't have [a rapid diagnostic test] at my finger tips." "I still have to make my case, plead to test people. This is not good. We know that there are 88 cases in the United States. There are going to be hundreds by middle of week. There's going to be thousands by next week. And this is a testing issue."

"In New York State, the person who tested positive is only the 32nd test we've done in this state," he said. "That is a national scandal. [...] They're testing 10,000 a day in some countries and we can't get this off the ground," McCarthy said. "I'm a practitioner on the firing line, and I don't have the tools to properly care for patients today."


----------



## starthrower

KenOC said:


> Health care insurers, whom we all love to hate, have actually been pretty good at holding health care costs down - for their members. But somebody has to pick up the costs of indigents and other non-payers, who are numerous. That somebody seems to be mostly the uninsured who are willing and able to pay, however painfully. So they might pay three or five times as much for a procedure as the hospital would collect from an insurer on behalf of one of its members. Really, this makes no sense and is patently unfair.
> 
> Obamacare has addressed this situation - somewhat - by providing a separate insurance marketplace and a very meaningful subsidy for insurance bought by low-income people.


We are now covered by Obamacare. My wife's life was such a tumultuous mess dealing with the prolonged sickness and death of her late husband and parents that she had no time to care for herself. And after that was all over with she got assaulted. Now that the turmoil has ended we've had time to look into getting some insurance. But Obamacare is really only a good deal for low income people who qualify for the essential plan. Luckily we do because I don't work full time anymore.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> For those who commented or posed questions concerning my post, I am not Dr. Robb. This was posted on Facebook by a person I respect, so I'm just passing it along.


Based on the erudite nature of your posts, I had no problem believing you are a prominent, retired virologist. 

In retrospect, the only thing that didn't add up was retiring to Syracuse, NY, from San Diego.


----------



## starthrower

Yeah, that was a dead giveaway. But somebody did question me directly about some of the content so I had to clear that up. I'm wondering how bad this outbreak is going to play out in Iran with the economic sanctions? And here in America with hundreds of thousands living on the streets in the land of plenty?

One thing that annoys me is all of this misinformation being disseminated by democrats and the media about the CDC budget being slashed. Bloomberg directly accused Trump of defunding the CDC resulting in a deficient organization which is a lie. There have been no budget reductions, only reduction proposals in Trump's fiscal year budget since he's been in office. His current budget proposes a 16 percent cut which will be rejected as usual.


----------



## aleazk

In South Korea, one of the most affected countries and which is doing massive virus testing to its citizens, the death rate is 0.6% (26 deaths out of 4335 infection cases.)


----------



## aleazk




----------



## pianozach

schigolch said:


> I haven't seen any report from China about actual reinfections, other than speculations. Is there any real data that we can look?.


There probably is, but it may be very difficult to find and identify as "real".

You cannot trust the Chinese government to give unbowdlerized information freely.

By the same token, the American government is trying to suppress any expert public discussion on the virus, instead insisting that ALL information go through the office of an anti-science guy first.


----------



## starthrower

Anti science administration more worried about the stock market and re-election.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

starthrower said:


> Anti science administration more worried about the stock market and re-election.


And people with 401K's do not want false news stories to kill their retirement money.


----------



## DaveM

starthrower said:


> Yeah, that was a dead giveaway. But somebody did question me directly about some of the content so I had to clear that up. I'm wondering how bad this outbreak is going to play out in Iran with the economic sanctions? And here in America with hundreds of thousands living on the streets in the land of plenty?
> 
> One thing that annoys me is all of this misinformation being disseminated by democrats and the media about the CDC budget being slashed. Bloomberg directly accused Trump of defunding the CDC resulting in a deficient organization which is a lie. There have been no budget reductions, only reduction proposals in Trump's fiscal year budget since he's been in office. His current budget proposes a 16 percent cut which will be rejected as usual.


I was one of the ones who said it and I was wrong. Still, everyone of Trump's proposed budgets has cut some of the CDC funding and the House didn't pass the cuts so it still shows what Trump's priorities are..and aren't.


----------



## starthrower

Yes, we understand Trump's priorities, but it's helpful to know the whole story instead of half truths.


----------



## KenOC

The virus really seems to be slowing down in China, which reports just 126 new cases, far fewer than the most active countries. As a result China is starting to quarantine arrivals from some locations:

“Travelers from the virus hotspots of South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Italy arriving in the capital will have to be isolated and placed in a 14-day quarantine, a Beijing official said. Shanghai and Guangdong announced similar restrictions earlier. Out of the 11 new cases confirmed in China outside of Hubei yesterday, 7 were Chinese citizens returning from Italy. They worked at a restaurant in Bergamo and were close contacts with a previous case.”

Meanwhile, in the Seattle area: “…who stopped at Costco in Shoreline to pick up a piece of jewelry for his wife and a few essentials. ‘I was shocked there wasn't any ground turkey cause I didn't think it was that popular. But they are out of toilet paper, paper towels, ground meat and chicken (and) I’ve never seen that in a Costco.’

“The big box discount retailer was still out of all those items, including hand sanitizer, water and disinfecting wipes when KOMO News checked later in the day.”


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> Yeah, that was a dead giveaway. But somebody did question me directly about some of the content so I had to clear that up. I'm wondering how bad this outbreak is going to play out in Iran with the economic sanctions? And here in America with hundreds of thousands living on the streets in the land of plenty?
> 
> One thing that annoys me is all of this misinformation being disseminated by democrats and the media about the CDC budget being slashed. Bloomberg directly accused Trump of defunding the CDC resulting in a deficient organization which is a lie. There have been no budget reductions, only reduction proposals in Trump's fiscal year budget since he's been in office. His current budget proposes a 16 percent cut which will be rejected as usual.


Presidential budgets are meaningless. They are never passed, even when it is one-party rule.

There has been a lot of hysteria by the media. The other day, Tony Fauci was in a press conference with Trump, and Trump was asked about rumors that Fauci was being muzzled - Fauci stepped forward and stated that nobody was muzzling him, had muzzled him, nor would anybody muzzle him. Now I'm sure some will think he was being forced to say that - but that is only because they don't know Fauci that well. Having been in the viral immunology field for more than 2 decades, you get to know about people like Fauci. He is not somebody that you can muzzle.

I worry about the CDC simply because of what it is - I've known several people that have worked there, and those stories frighten me. But that has absolutely nothing to do with who is in the White House.


----------



## starthrower

All this hysteria is why I don't watch television. Whatever the subject happens to be, and specific points being made, I do a search and read various reports from different sources to try to get an idea about the truth of the matter.


----------



## aleazk

First confirmed case in my country. A person who arrived from Milan, Italy and probably caught the virus there.


----------



## KenOC

The Seattle cluster is now at 27 cases, including nine deaths. ALL coronavirus deaths in the US so far are in the Seattle cluster. Like yesterday, one-third of identified cases have resulted in deaths. The usual cautions on drawing conclusions from this apply.

Trump has again donated his quarterly paycheck, this time to fight the coronavirus.


----------



## aleazk

aleazk said:


>


More on this here.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Trump has again donated his quarterly paycheck, this time to fight the coronavirus.


He is more corrupt than an African dictator. He will obtain hundred times more by profiteering from the presidency 
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/opinion/trump-administration-corruption-conflicts.html


----------



## Jacck

aleazk said:


>


this is not new for those of us who have been following the epidemic for some time. It is not that dangerous for younger or middle aged people, but for people above 70, it is. Many people are sick, are immunocompromised, have underlying issues with cardiovascular or respiratory system etc. And the virus would be like a grim reaper among these populations.


----------



## KenOC

Worth reading. Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization's Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed - it's all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you're going to be. [...]

People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn't find that. We found there's a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts - but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that's different from flu. [...]

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you've seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It's not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."

The full interview is *here*.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Worth reading. Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization's Joint Mission to China:
> 
> "I think the key learning from China is speed - it's all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you're going to be. [...]
> 
> People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn't find that. We found there's a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts - but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that's different from flu. [...]
> 
> China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you've seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
> 
> Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. *This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts*. It's not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."
> 
> The full interview is *here*.


this somehow does not fit with how many people got infected in Italy just by vising it for a couple of days. They had certainly no close contacts with the locals, and yet many contracted the disease and spread it all over Europe. And I am also not sure if I trust anything coming from CCP, Putin and any similar regimes. They might be lying in order to look good and save the economy.


----------



## KenOC

Abstracted from comments by WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:

COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza. With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Only 1% of COVID-19 cases don't show any symptoms, and most who do get sick present symptoms within two days.

COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza. While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new coronavirus to which no one has immunity. 

Clinical trials of therapeutics are now being done and more than 20 vaccines are in development.

Doctors across the globe are facing a shortage of badly needed supplies to keep caregivers safe. Shortages are leaving doctors, nurses and other frontline health workers dangerously ill-equipped to care for COVID-19 patients due to limited access to supplies such as gloves, medical masks, respirators, goggles, face shields, gowns and aprons. "We can’t stop COVID-19 without protecting health workers." 

Prices of surgical masks have increased six-fold, while N95 respirators have more than tripled and gown costs have doubled. The WHO has shipped nearly half a million sets of personal protective equipment to 27 countries, but supplies are rapidly depleting.

The WHO estimates the globe will need 89 million medical masks, 76 million pairs of examination gloves and 1.6 million goggles each month for the COVID-19 response.


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> this somehow does not fit with how many people got infected in Italy just by vising it for a couple of days. They had certainly no close contacts with the locals, and yet many contracted the disease and spread it all over Europe. And I am also not sure if I trust anything coming from CCP, Putin and any similar regimes. They might be lying in order to look good and save the economy.


Here is something about asymptomatic cases:

https://www.sciencealert.com/resear...smit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Worth reading. Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization's Joint Mission to China:
> 
> "I think the key learning from China is speed - it's all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you're going to be. [...]
> 
> People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn't find that. We found there's a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts - but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that's different from flu. [...]
> 
> China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you've seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
> 
> Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It's not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."
> 
> The full interview is *here*.


I continue to take anything 'the experts' say who aren't in the trenches with a grain of salt. China did not get patients into treatment early initially though they are starting to now in many areas. There are large areas of China not well served so it remains to be seen what the end of story is.

I still get irritated at the dismissal of the use of masks by the public. The average healthy young person doesn't need them, but my advice to anyone over 65 with cardiovascular or pulmonary issues is to carry a mask and use it when at close quarters to a lot of people in enclosed areas or if someone nearby is coughing nearby.

Here's the perspective: Healthy health professionals will wear a mask in a room with any coughing patient with an unknown diagnosis. Why wouldn't a 65+ year old with co-morbid issues not do the same thing sitting on a bus, on a subway, in a plane or in a doctor's waiting room where someone is coughing?


----------



## aleazk

If I were a 65+ in a city with many virus cases, I would avoid crouds and public places like the plague. And, adding to that, if I also had some chronic disease or the like, I would try to stay in home as much as possible until a vaccine is developed. I guess the masks can be helpful, but why even take the chance? I mean, people at that age are often already retired.


----------



## starthrower

Johnnie Burgess said:


> And people with 401K's do not want false news stories to kill their retirement money.


You mean how Covid-19 is becoming a world wide menace and the US health Care system is not equipped to handle it? We can only hope it will "disappear like a miracle" according to our esteemed leader.


----------



## DaveM

aleazk said:


> If I were a 65+ in a city with many virus cases, I would avoid crouds and public places like the plague. And, adding to that, if I also had some chronic disease or the like, I would try to stay in home as much as possible until a vaccine is developed. I guess the masks can be helpful, but why even take the chance? I mean, people at that age are often already retired.


People over 65+ still have to go out and shop for food, go to various medical/dental appointments and still have a social life.


----------



## starthrower

Grocery stores have bathrooms. People can wash their hands after shopping and before getting in their vehicles. And use a credit card instead of exchanging cash with others.


----------



## haydnguy

I am posting a series of posts made to Twitter made by someone named 'sketchy lady'. Unfortunately I can't link to her posts but I thought they were interesting enough to post them manually.

__________________________


I live in Seattle, I have all symptoms of COVID-19 and have a history of chronic bronchitis. 

Since I work in a physical therapy clinic with many 65+ patients and those with chronic illnesses, I decided to be responsible and go to get tested. This is how that went.

I called the Corona hotline, was on hold for 40 minutes and gave up.

So I looked at the CDC and Washington public health websites. They told me to see a primary care doctor, but there's no information about testing.

I called 2 primary care doctors. One told me they don't know where to get testing, and that I should not to seek out testing. The other one told me to go to an urgent care or ER.

I called the Urgent Care, they also had no idea where tests are, but told me to call the hospital.

I called the hospital. They do not have tests, but transferred me to the COVID-19 hotline to "answer my questions". Since I was transferred on a medical provider line, I actually got through. Progress!

The lady with the hotline was very kind and professional and understood my concern about my own health and those at my clinic. (Which is currently being sanitized). However, I was told I do not qualify for testing. And I was not given a timeline or info on current resources.

So. Who does qualify? Those who have been out of the country in the last 14 days, and those who have had contact with one of the few people who have been tested and come up positive. That's it.

The only way I can get treated is if my symptoms get so bad I develop pneumonia or bronchitis, which is very likely in my case. Then I'll be in the ER and quarantined for several days while waiting for a test and for the results to come back.

This is all incredibly frustrating because I am trying to do everything right in a system that punishes moments of "weakness" like taking days off.

It's also scary to know that I won't be able to get help until I need life support.

To sum up: this is not contained. No one knows what the **** is happening. I can't work. WASH YOUR ******* HANDS.

Ah ****! Didn't realize there was a hashtag just for lil ol' me! Check out above thread Up pointing index #CoronaVirusSeattle

ince this is getting attention.

COVID-19 HOTLINE: 1-800-525-0127

DON'T CALL unless you are experiencing all symptoms or have been exposed to a case. Leave the lines open to people who need it most. Any other questions can be answered on the CDC, WHO, or WA public health sites.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> Grocery stores have bathrooms. People can wash their hands after shopping and before getting in their vehicles. And use a credit card instead of exchanging cash with others.


Are you kidding about grocery store bathrooms? With those germ spewing hand dryers, urine everywhere, and you are lucky if you don't have to pull the door open to exit, negating whatever hand washing you did? Public restrooms are the worst.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> He is more corrupt than an African dictator. He will obtain hundred times more by profiteering from the presidency
> https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/opinion/trump-administration-corruption-conflicts.html


Can't help yourself, can you?


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> I continue to take anything 'the experts' say who aren't in the trenches with a grain of salt. China did not get patients into treatment early initially though they are starting to now in many areas. There are large areas of China not well served so it remains to be seen what the end of story is.
> 
> I still get irritated at the dismissal of the use of masks by the public. The average healthy young person doesn't need them, but my advice to anyone over 65 with cardiovascular or pulmonary issues is to carry a mask and use it when at close quarters to a lot of people in enclosed areas or if someone nearby is coughing nearby.
> 
> Here's the perspective: Healthy health professionals will wear a mask in a room with any coughing patient with an unknown diagnosis. Why wouldn't a 65+ year old with co-morbid issues not do the same thing sitting on a bus, on a subway, in a plane or in a doctor's waiting room where someone is coughing?


Usually they are wearing the masks to not give anything else to the patient, who may be more prone to secondary infections. Having worn these masks and worked with infected animals for years, I can tell you it was mostly so I didn't transmit anything to the animal, not the other way around. Sorry, but the basic paper masks are pretty useless except for putting them on the actual infected people. Once the virus is aerosolized by sneezing, those masks don't do jack squat. Like a chain link fence to a mosquito. The idea is to put them on the sick people and contain it when they are relatively large droplets.


----------



## starthrower

DrMike said:


> Are you kidding about grocery store bathrooms? With those germ spewing hand dryers, urine everywhere, and you are lucky if you don't have to pull the door open to exit, negating whatever hand washing you did? Public restrooms are the worst.


I shop at Wegmans in New York State. Their stores are spotless. Same for my gym. They clean the place constantly. You don't know how to exit using your forearm? You don't have to touch the door handle. Is the virus spread by urine?

All of our food and other products are transported to retail outlets by truck drivers who live on the road and use public restrooms and showers. And the shelf stockers at the grocery stores use their bathrooms. How are you going to avoid this?


----------



## mrdoc

DrMike said:


> Are you kidding about grocery store bathrooms? With those germ spewing hand dryers, urine everywhere, and you are lucky if you don't have to pull the door open to exit, negating whatever hand washing you did? Public restrooms are the worst.


I have *always* torn off some toilet paper before washing hands and used it to open the door.


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> Usually they are wearing the masks to not give anything else to the patient, who may be more prone to secondary infections. Having worn these masks and worked with infected animals for years, I can tell you it was mostly so I didn't transmit anything to the animal, not the other way around. Sorry, but the basic paper masks are pretty useless except for putting them on the actual infected people. Once the virus is aerosolized by sneezing, those masks don't do jack squat. Like a chain link fence to a mosquito. The idea is to put them on the sick people and contain it when they are relatively large droplets.


Do you really believe that healthcare workers wearing masks when at close quarters with an infected, coughing patient are doing so mainly to protect the patient? Interesting that you think that wearing a mask with infected animals would have anything to do with reasons for wearing masks near coughing patients. You are free to dismiss the use of masks. All the best with your frequent flying.
*
Recent Article: on Use of Masks:*
"Surgical masks afford fairly good protection for the worried well. In an oft-cited study of 446 nurses, researchers found surgical masks were as good, or nearly as good, at protecting the wearer against flu as respirators, a somewhat more high-tech, masklike device used in hospitals.
The work of Australian investigators also provides further support for the value of the simple surgical mask. They estimate that in a home setting, wearing a surgical mask decreases a well person's risk of getting sick by 60 percent to 80 percent."
*

JAMA. 2009 Nov 4;302(17):1865-71. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.1466. Epub 2009 Oct 1.
Surgical mask vs N95 respirator for preventing influenza among health care workers: a randomized trial.*

RESULTS:
Between September 23, 2008, and December 8, 2008, 478 nurses were assessed for eligibility and 446 nurses were enrolled and randomly assigned the intervention; 225 were allocated to receive surgical masks and 221 to N95 respirators. Influenza infection occurred in 50 nurses (23.6%) in the surgical mask group and in 48 (22.9%) in the N95 respirator group (absolute risk difference, -0.73%; 95% CI, -8.8% to 7.3%; P = .86), the lower confidence limit being inside the noninferiority limit of -9%.
CONCLUSION:
Among nurses in Ontario tertiary care hospitals, use of a surgical mask compared with an N95 respirator resulted in noninferior rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza.


----------



## Bwv 1080

Serious enough that Vietnam has launched this catchy PSA vid


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> He is more corrupt than an African dictator. He will obtain hundred times more by profiteering from the presidency
> https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/opinion/trump-administration-corruption-conflicts.html


He donated $100K of his yearly salary for coronavirus relief? Ooo.

A drop in the bucket compared to how much he has slashed budgets for agencies that would be directly involved in handling a national health emergency.

The President's 2021 budget for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) calls for a $9.5 billion cut to HHS's discretionary budget in 2021 and a $1.6 trillion cut over 10 years from mandatory health care spending.

People forget how much he's cutting - - - his budget slashes more than $900 billion from Medicaid, among other things . . . .



starthrower said:


> . . . . We can only hope it will "disappear like a miracle" according to our esteemed leader.


Improbable and unlikely.


----------



## Jacck

a man buying corona supplies in Austria (Linz)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERpAnJyW4AEBgJg?format=jpg


----------



## aleazk

DaveM said:


> People over 65+ still have to go out and shop for food, go to various medical/dental appointments and still have a social life.


Of course. That's why I said "as much as _possible_" rather than "all day"


----------



## aleazk

Jacck said:


> this is not new for those of us who have been following the epidemic for some time. It is not that dangerous for younger or middle aged people, but for people above 70, it is. Many people are sick, are immunocompromised, have underlying issues with cardiovascular or respiratory system etc. And the virus would be like a grim reaper among these populations.


Yes, I know you know. But you are not the only one reading this thread, my friend...


----------



## Jacck

Oh no 
Baby Yoda toy production could be derailed by coronavirus


----------



## starthrower

pianozach said:


> He donated $100K of his yearly salary for coronavirus relief? Ooo.
> 
> A drop in the bucket compared to how much he has slashed budgets for agencies that would be directly involved in handling a national health emergency.
> 
> The President's 2021 budget for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) calls for a $9.5 billion cut to HHS's discretionary budget in 2021 and a $1.6 trillion cut over 10 years from mandatory health care spending.
> 
> People forget how much he's cutting - - - his budget slashes more than $900 billion from Medicaid, among other things . . . .
> 
> Improbable and unlikely.


He's not cutting anything. He's just posturing and displaying his narcissistic tendencies. His cuts won't be approved by Congress. He doesn't need a salary because he and his family are using the highest office in the land to line their pockets. His presidential salary is chump change. And his ignorance prevents him from understanding the seriousness of the health situation. But whatever happens that doesn't reflect positively on him will be blamed on the other party, the media, or something else.


----------



## Potiphera

As simple it may seem, and long before this corona virus took hold, I wrap a scarf round my nose and mouth, when travelling on public transport, and I avoid crowded places, always wash my hands after travel even if I haven't worn gloves. In fact I developed this habit of hand washing since working in hospitals. Since keeping up these precautionary measures for 3 years, I have never caught a cold. I considered also that I should stop eating and drinking in cafe's. This may seem a tad drastic but I don't mind as long as it keeps me cold or flu free. By the way, I never have the flu jab!


----------



## Jacck

Potiphera said:


> As simple it may seem, and long before this corona virus took hold, I wrap a scarf round my nose and mouth, when travelling on public transport, and I avoid crowded places, always wash my hands after travel even if I haven't worn gloves. In fact I developed this habit of hand washing since working in hospitals. Since keeping up these precautionary measures for 3 years, I have never caught a cold. I considered also that I should stop eating and drinking in cafe's. This may seem a tad drastic but I don't mind as long as it keeps me cold or flu free. By the way, I never have the flu jab!


if the pandemic is not stopped and the virus becomes endemic, then it might actually be better to catch the virus while young. It likely does not create complete immunity after exposure, but might produce some partial immunity (resistence) on repeated exposure (memory T cells). The reason older people die more often is that their immune systems are no longer adaptable and are unable to react to novel viruses. Children have very adaptable pliable immune systems that have no big trouble beating the virus. After the population is immunized, the mortality might become much lower.

PS: I know Trump promised a vaccine before the elections, but I am sceptical there is going to be one at all (given that there is no SARS and MERS vaccine)
https://today.line.me/id/pc/article...l+there+be+one+for+the+new+coronavirus-D9J6a5


----------



## DaveM

Our great leader had a meeting with various officials who will be looking for antiviral and vaccine solutions. With arms folded and looking very officious he asked, ‘So, is it not possible to use the solid flu vaccine we already have?’

It’s like I have a perfectly good key to my house. Why can’t I use it in my car?


----------



## Potiphera

*Hand washing song.*

double post. sorry.


----------



## Potiphera

*Hand washing song.*

Hand washing song


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> He donated $100K of his yearly salary for coronavirus relief? Ooo.
> 
> A drop in the bucket compared to how much he has slashed budgets for agencies that would be directly involved in handling a national health emergency.
> 
> The President's 2021 budget for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) calls for a $9.5 billion cut to HHS's discretionary budget in 2021 and a $1.6 trillion cut over 10 years from mandatory health care spending.
> 
> People forget how much he's cutting - - - his budget slashes more than $900 billion from Medicaid, among other things . . . .
> 
> Improbable and unlikely.


You need to read the posts above. Nothing has been slashed. Presidential budgets never get passed, even if their party controls both the House and the Senate. Go look it up. You know how many of Obama's budgets got passed in the first 2 years of his administration? Zero.

Again - he hasn't cut any of those. So that is a bit of disinformation.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> Our great leader had a meeting with various officials who will be looking for antiviral and vaccine solutions. With arms folded and looking very officious he asked, 'So, is it not possible to use the solid flu vaccine we already have?'
> 
> It's like I have a perfectly good key to my house. Why can't I use it in my car?


Again - still doesn't seem quite as ambitious as Joe Biden's pledge to cure cancer if he is elected. You know - "cancer." As if there is a single kind, or a single cause, and the cure is out there if only we had the political will to find it - probably those greedy pharmaceutical companies don't want a cure so they can get rich with their expensive cancer treatments!!!! (*cue the dastardly laugh and the twirling of my lengthy handlebar moustache!)


----------



## Jacck

DrMike said:


> Again - still doesn't seem quite as ambitious as Joe Biden's pledge to cure cancer if he is elected. You know - "cancer." As if there is a single kind, or a single cause, and the cure is out there if only we had the political will to find it - probably those greedy pharmaceutical companies don't want a cure so they can get rich with their expensive cancer treatments!!!! (*cue the dastardly laugh and the twirling of my lengthy handlebar moustache!)


How Big Pharma greed is killing tens of thousands around the world
the pharma companies are indeed greedy and often aggressively push useless expensive medicaments to sell unsuspecting patients. For example all those preparations to treat osteoarthrosis (such as Chondroitin Sulfate) have no efficacy at all. And this is just one example of many. Especially internists have a tendence to overmedicate people. The more medicaments, the greater danger of some dangerous interactions or adverse effects.


----------



## Jacck

I personally will be stocking on Brazil nuts. They by far the best natural source of selenium and selenium can work as an antivirotic (also zinc)
Dietary Selenium in Adjuvant Therapy of Viral and Bacterial Infections
and also use the time proven thyme tea if catching any respiratory infection together with NAC


----------



## KenOC

Uh-oh. Princess Cruises is back in the news, and not in a good way. The first US coronavirus death outside of the Seattle cluster has occurred, an elderly person living in Central California. He was evidently exposed on a US-Mexico round trip cruise on the _Grand Princess_ in mid-February. Others from that cruise are showing symptoms and yet others are being chased down for testing or perhaps quarantine.

Meanwhile, the virus is edging into SoCal with six new cases in LA and two more here in Orange County. The good news (from my point of view) is that the feds have dropped plans to set up a quarantine center for confirmed cases in Costa Mesa. Somebody else's back yard, please!


----------



## Red Terror

I hope these guys have developed a good sense of humor...


----------



## Andrew Kenneth

A belgian supermarket is now offering a free bottle of "Mort Subite" (Sudden Death) to buyers of 2 bottles of Corona.









link => https://www.lesoir.be/284363/article/2020-03-03/un-magasin-delhaize-plaisante-au-sujet-du-coronavirus-deux-corona-achetees-une


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> Again - still doesn't seem quite as ambitious as Joe Biden's pledge to cure cancer if he is elected. You know - "cancer." As if there is a single kind, or a single cause, and the cure is out there if only we had the political will to find it - probably those greedy pharmaceutical companies don't want a cure so they can get rich with their expensive cancer treatments!!!! (*cue the dastardly laugh and the twirling of my lengthy handlebar moustache!)


For some reason, your responses to my posts often have little to do with them. What does the fact that Biden made the kind of well-meaning comment about addressing a cure for cancer -even if it was somewhat exaggerated for effect- and Trump, even by now, not knowing that a flu vaccine is totally irrelevant to coronavirus?

Btw, your 'You know - cancer' infers that Biden is ignorant about it. Pretty unlikely given that his son died of one of the worst kinds.


----------



## starthrower

DrMike said:


> probably those greedy pharmaceutical companies don't want a cure so they can get rich with their expensive cancer treatments!!!! (*cue the dastardly laugh and the twirling of my lengthy handlebar moustache!)


What do you mean get rich? As if they aren't already making billions in profit? Pfizer made a mint just selling hard on pills.


----------



## pianozach

I expected that 6-packs of Corona beer would be on a two-for-one sale by now . . . .


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> He is more corrupt than an African dictator. He will obtain hundred times more by profiteering from the presidency
> https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/opinion/trump-administration-corruption-conflicts.html





starthrower said:


> He's not cutting anything. He's just posturing and displaying his narcissistic tendencies. His cuts won't be approved by Congress. He doesn't need a salary because he and his family are using the highest office in the land to line their pockets. His presidential salary is chump change. And his ignorance prevents him from understanding the seriousness of the health situation. But whatever happens that doesn't reflect positively on him will be blamed on the other party, the media, or something else.


I find that I cannot find anything in these comments with which I disagree.

Good points all.


----------



## KenOC

KenOC said:


> Uh-oh. Princess Cruises is back in the news, and not in a good way. The first US coronavirus death outside of the Seattle cluster has occurred, an elderly person living in Central California. He was evidently exposed on a US-Mexico round trip cruise on the _Grand Princess_ in mid-February. Others from that cruise are showing symptoms and yet others are being chased down for testing or perhaps quarantine.


*
More bad news* added to bad news.
--------------------------------------------------
The Princess Grand cruise ship headed from Hawaii toward San Francisco contains 21 people who are showing possible symptoms of the novel coronavirus, according to California Gov. Gavin Newsom. "The ship will not come onshore until we properly assess passengers," Newsom told reporters at a press conference. Newsom declared a state of emergency in California on Wednesday.


----------



## DaveM

^^^This is such a great time to take a cruise and these people did just that a couple of weeks ago. Wonders never cease. A likely pandemic is coming and cruise ships have been a haven for various bugs eg. norovirus, Legionnaires etc. When these things occur, you are stuck on the ship. You can be restricted to your room. It is a royal hell! The cruise lines are advertising like crazy these days. I wonder why?...


----------



## Sad Al

To buy Corona beer or to buy toilet paper, that is the question. – Hamlet in supermarket


----------



## premont

Sad Al said:


> To buy Corona beer or to buy toilet paper, that is the question. - Hamlet in supermarket


To pee or not to pee ….


----------



## Jacck

some funny protections from coronavirus
https://vod.idnes.cz/a/2003/04/VF200304_183226_flv_middle_ande.mp4


----------



## Bwv 1080

New cases in Korea, Japan and Italy no longer growing exponentially, saw the same thing in China, which has plateaued (assuming the data is trustworthy). Korea is the country to watch, having tested over 140,000 people. Interesting stats here on the cases, backing up the contention that only seniors and those in compromised health are in real danger:









Source: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030


----------



## premont

Bwv 1080 said:


> New cases in Korea, Japan and Italy no longer growing exponentially, saw the same thing in China, which has plateaued (assuming the data is trustworthy). Korea is the country to watch, having tested over 140,000 people. Interesting stats here on the cases, backing up the contention that only seniors and those in compromised health are in real danger:
> 
> View attachment 131315
> 
> 
> Source: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030


It looks as if age is a risk factor by itself. But how is the correlation to other factors like COLD, diabetes mellitus and heart disease, all of which get more frequent with growing age?


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> Do you really believe that healthcare workers wearing masks when at close quarters with an infected, coughing patient are doing so mainly to protect the patient? Interesting that you think that wearing a mask with infected animals would have anything to do with reasons for wearing masks near coughing patients. You are free to dismiss the use of masks. All the best with your frequent flying.
> *
> Recent Article: on Use of Masks:*
> "Surgical masks afford fairly good protection for the worried well. In an oft-cited study of 446 nurses, researchers found surgical masks were as good, or nearly as good, at protecting the wearer against flu as respirators, a somewhat more high-tech, masklike device used in hospitals.
> The work of Australian investigators also provides further support for the value of the simple surgical mask. They estimate that in a home setting, wearing a surgical mask decreases a well person's risk of getting sick by 60 percent to 80 percent."
> *
> 
> JAMA. 2009 Nov 4;302(17):1865-71. doi: 10.1001/jama.2009.1466. Epub 2009 Oct 1.
> Surgical mask vs N95 respirator for preventing influenza among health care workers: a randomized trial.*
> 
> RESULTS:
> Between September 23, 2008, and December 8, 2008, 478 nurses were assessed for eligibility and 446 nurses were enrolled and randomly assigned the intervention; 225 were allocated to receive surgical masks and 221 to N95 respirators. Influenza infection occurred in 50 nurses (23.6%) in the surgical mask group and in 48 (22.9%) in the N95 respirator group (absolute risk difference, -0.73%; 95% CI, -8.8% to 7.3%; P = .86), the lower confidence limit being inside the noninferiority limit of -9%.
> CONCLUSION:
> Among nurses in Ontario tertiary care hospitals, use of a surgical mask compared with an N95 respirator resulted in noninferior rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza.


Gee, what do I know? I've just worked in Science (infectious diseases) for 20+ years. But your quick internet search is probably superior. Oh yeah, you could also check what the CDC says about the surgical masks.
https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/pdfs/UnderstandDifferenceInfographic-508.pdf

Pay attention to what it says about filtration for the surgical mask.


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> It looks as if age is a risk factor by itself. But how is the correlation to other factors like COLD, diabetes mellitus and heart disease, all of which get more frequent with growing age?


the table is a bad analysis. I analyze data quite often, and it would be better to make a logistic regression model (with a binary outcome dead or alive) and then assess the interaction between age, heart disease, diabetes etc interactions. But yesterday I read some article in Guardian, that said, that the main factor is not age, but the underlying conditions and that 50% of those in critical condition had either heart disease, or diabetes, or post infarction.


----------



## Bwv 1080

Jacck said:


> the table is a bad analysis. I analyze data quite often, and it would be better to make a logistic regression model (with a binary outcome dead or alive) and then assess the interaction between age, heart disease, diabetes etc interactions. But yesterday I read some article in Guardian, that said, that the main factor is not age, but the underlying conditions and that 50% of those in critical condition had either heart disease, or diabetes, or post infarction.


The table is just raw data based on age, not an 'analysis', but is good information (and I as mentioned, Korea has the most extensive testing and best data). Of course age is correlated with a number of the health conditions you mention.


----------



## premont

Bwv 1080 said:


> The table is just raw data based on age, not an 'analysis', but is good information (and I as mentioned, Korea has the most extensive testing and best data). Of course age is correlated with a number of the health conditions you mention.


Well, I find it confusing to correlate the risk with age only, when other factors probably are more significantly correlated to the risk.


----------



## Bwv 1080

premont said:


> Well, I find it confusing to correlate the risk with age only, when other factors probably are more significantly correlated to the risk.


What basis do you have for that? Flu deaths are also predominantly correlated with age. All the data shows very high levels of lethality for people over 80, a study of Chinese patients showed a 14.6% mortality rate for patients over age 80


----------



## Sad Al

This may sound mad but I don't believe in coronavirus. I don't think it's real. I don't believe in Australia either. Never been there. It may not exist


----------



## Luchesi

Sad Al said:


> This may sound mad but I don't believe in coronavirus. I don't think it's real. I don't believe in Australia either. Never been there. It may not exist


You survived the Y2K calamity.


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> Gee, what do I know? I've just worked in Science (infectious diseases) for 20+ years.


At close quarters with infected human patients? Are you treating people with infectious diseases with your PhD?



> But your quick internet search is probably superior. Oh yeah, you could also check what the CDC says about the surgical masks.


Quick internet search? I've kept up on this information for years for my own protection.



> https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/pdfs/UnderstandDifferenceInfographic-508.pdf
> 
> Pay attention to what it says about filtration for the surgical mask.


The information from your quick internet search does not translate directly to what happens in the real world. The greatest risk from coughing patients is when you are at close quarters. Large droplets comprise the majority of those expelled by a coughing patient and they can be projected several feet. Well-applied surgical masks can provide some protection for health workers nearby.

Aerosolized/suspended small droplets move farther, but eventually drop and dry out leaving the virus-containing nuclei. Surgical masks provide less protection from aerosolized small droplets. But clinical studies have shown that the risk of catching disease from coughing patients diminishes the farther you move away so, again, large droplets are probably the biggest concern. When you are doing your frequent flying and a person a seat or 2 away is coughing, are you going to have a mask handy?

N95 masks provide better overall protection, but I showed the study that indicated that surgical masks appeared to come close to the n95 in the clinical setting of nurses. Granted that's just one study, but my takeaway is that surgical masks are, at the very least, far better than nothing. On the other hand, for administrative 'experts' -and you for that matter- to suggest that surgical masks are of no use is not based on real-world situations because they are not giving any context.


----------



## premont

Bwv 1080 said:


> What basis do you have for that? Flu deaths are also predominantly correlated with age. All the data shows very high levels of lethality for people over 80, a study of Chinese patients showed a 14.6% mortality rate for patients over age 80


I only wrote "probably". Age may be a risk factor, but there are several others - many of them somewhat correlated with age, but as long as we don't know the relative importance of all the risk factors, we can't say anything about age as an isolated risk factor or the risk of an elderly "otherwise" healthy individual.


----------



## KenOC

From this morning's update: Italy is being hit exceptionally hard, both in case numbers and in the apparent severity of the infections. Check out the hospitalization and apparent death rates.

"769 new cases and 41 new deaths in Italy, which becomes the country with the largest daily increase in cases and deaths in the world.

"Among the 3,296 active cases, 1,790 (54%) are hospitalized, 331 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care.

"Among the 562 closed cases, 414 (74%) have recovered, 148 (26%) have died."


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> At close quarters with infected human patients? Are you treating people with infectious diseases with your PhD?
> 
> Quick internet search? I've kept up on this information for years for my own protection.
> 
> The information from your quick internet search does not translate directly to what happens in the real world. The greatest risk from coughing patients is when you are at close quarters. Large droplets comprise the majority of those expelled by a coughing patient and they can be projected several feet. Well-applied surgical masks can provide some protection for health workers nearby.
> 
> Aerosolized/suspended small droplets move farther, but eventually drop and dry out leaving the virus-containing nuclei. Surgical masks provide less protection from aerosolized small droplets. But clinical studies have shown that the risk of catching disease from coughing patients diminishes the farther you move away so, again, large droplets are probably the biggest concern. When you are doing your frequent flying and a person a seat or 2 away is coughing, are you going to have a mask handy?
> 
> N95 masks provide better overall protection, but I showed the study that indicated that surgical masks appeared to come close to the n95 in the clinical setting of nurses. Granted that's just one study, but my takeaway is that surgical masks are, at the very least, far better than nothing. On the other hand, for administrative 'experts' -and you for that matter- to suggest that surgical masks are of no use is not based on real-world situations because they are not giving any context.


You think that sheet put out by the CDC is not based on real world situations? And you have superior knowledge because why? You found a paper to back you up? One paper is an interesting observation, not settled science. For the FDA and NIOSH to make those statements about those two kinds of masks means that they have tested them. Go ahead and wear your placebo if you want. All you are doing is giving people a false sense of security. If I'm sitting two seats down from an infected person and they sneeze, if I don't have an N95 or PAPR on, I'm probably getting exposed.

Also, if you get people panicked and buying up all these masks then it results in shortages for those who actually need them for applications where they actually work.


----------



## Jacck

DrMike said:


> You think that sheet put out by the CDC is not based on real world situations? And you have superior knowledge because why? You found a paper to back you up? One paper is an interesting observation, not settled science. For the FDA and NIOSH to make those statements about those two kinds of masks means that they have tested them. Go ahead and wear your placebo if you want. All you are doing is giving people a false sense of security. If I'm sitting two seats down from an infected person and they sneeze, if I don't have an N95 or PAPR on, I'm probably getting exposed. Also, if you get people panicked and buying up all these masks then it results in shortages for those who actually need them for applications where they actually work.


surgical masks can offer some protection even against viruses. It is true, that the smallest droplets can pass through the mask and they offer no 100% protection, but they offer partial protection, they block at least some of the bigger droplets etc. And there are several studies about their efficacy, not just one
https://www.healthline.com/health/cold-flu/mask#1


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> You think that sheet put out by the CDC is not based on real world situations? And you have superior knowledge because why? You found a paper to back you up? One paper is an interesting observation, not settled science. For the FDA and NIOSH to make those statements about those two kinds of masks means that they have tested them. Go ahead and wear your placebo if you want. All you are doing is giving people a false sense of security. If I'm sitting two seats down from an infected person and they sneeze, if I don't have an N95 or PAPR on, I'm probably getting exposed.
> 
> Also, if you get people panicked and buying up all these masks then it results in shortages for those who actually need them for applications where they actually work.


As usual, you are ignoring much of my post, some of which comes from more than one paper. I have worn a mask every day of my professional life. I know more about the subject than you do. If you didn't get the science I explained about droplets from sneezing/coughing then you are just choosing to be obtuse. If you think that hospitals have dispensers for surgical masks wherever there are patients with transmissible-by-air infections, but they, according to you, are placebos, then you only expose your own ignorance. And if you think the masks are there to just protect the patient, you don't know what you're talking about.

When the CDC and experts say that there is no need for the average person to be walking around with a mask outside or in a store, they are correct. If anyone says that a surgical mask does not provide any protection when at close quarters 5-10 feet with a coughing/sneezing person, then they are giving misinformation. If people don't think they are ever going to be in that situation, they don't need to bother looking for a mask.

Btw, even your CDC link says that a surgical mask protects from large droplets. Of course, you translate that as being a placebo.


----------



## aleazk

Sad Al said:


> This may sound mad but I don't believe in coronavirus. I don't think it's real. I don't believe in Australia either. Never been there. It may not exist


Ah! A follower of bishop Berkeley here... :lol:


----------



## aleazk

premont said:


> Well, I find it confusing to correlate the risk with age only, when other factors probably are more significantly correlated to the risk.


Here you have both things in one table:










So, if you are 60+ and one of those conditions, wash your hands 

That's pretty much all you can do right now.


----------



## Jacck

aleazk said:


> Here you have both things in one table:
> 
> So, if you are 60+ and one of those conditions, wash your hands
> 
> That's pretty much all you can do right now.


you can also pray 

and the table does not reveal all the information that could be had with a proper analysis. All those health conditions are correlated with age. What is the odds of dying if you have a cardiovascular disease and are 50-60 years old? What is the odds of dying if you have a cardiovascular disease and are 70-80 years old? You cannot have this information from the table, but you could have those information by doing some proper analysis (such as the logistic regression)


----------



## Bwv 1080

Jacck said:


> . What is the odds of dying if you have a cardiovascular disease and are 50-60 years old? What is the odds of dying if you have a cardiovascular disease and are 70-80 years old?


the odds of (eventually) dying in all these circumstances is 100%


----------



## Jacck

Bwv 1080 said:


> the odds of (eventually) dying in all these circumstances is 100%


yes, life is a fatal sexually transmitted disease


----------



## aleazk

The journal Science is making available all of its published papers on the topic: https://www.sciencemag.org/coronavirus


----------



## KenOC

Traffic heading into Seattle at 7:55 this morning, just north of the city. Normally this is a choked crawl!










Lots of Seattle workers commute via ferry from across Puget Sound. The health people have suggested that they skip that hot breakfast and cribbage game with friends on the enclosed upper decks and remain in their cars during the crossing instead.


----------



## senza sordino

I was supposed to take my students to a large academic competition at a local university this coming week-end. It would have been a gathering of about 1000 high school age students and hundreds of adults from nearly a hundred schools. The organizers have cancelled the competition, two days prior to the event. I am not sure whether the organizers are being cautious or paranoid. My students are, not surprisingly, disappointed as they have been preparing for a few weeks. 

And school districts here are cancelling international field trips that had been scheduled for spring break. I don't know if the students get their money back.


----------



## DaveM

A relatively new antiviral, remdesivir, is being tested against the coronavirus. Good results in lab, in vitro, testing and was actually successfully used on a Washington patient who was fairly ill (not clear if the drug was responsible for the recovery). Testing on humans in China is imminent. A working antiviral would be a game-changer.


----------



## haydnguy

A day after Vice President Mike Pence assured Americans that lab tests for coronavirus would be covered by private and government health insurance, that promise appears to be less than airtight.

The bottom line: Medicare, Medicaid, and "Obamacare" insurance plans will cover the tests, officials said Thursday. Major insurers also said they will cover such tests. But people with employer-provided insurance should check with their plan because copays and deductibles may apply. State health departments will test for free.

(sound alert on linked page. sound without warning.)

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/cor...ck-if-costs-apply-insurance-expenses/2314302/


----------



## KenOC

haydnguy said:


> A day after Vice President Mike Pence assured Americans that lab tests for coronavirus would be covered by private and government health insurance, that promise appears to be less than airtight.
> 
> The bottom line: Medicare, Medicaid, and "Obamacare" insurance plans will cover the tests, officials said Thursday. Major insurers also said they will cover such tests. But people with employer-provided insurance should check with their plan because copays and deductibles may apply. State health departments will test for free.
> 
> (sound alert on linked page. sound without warning.)
> 
> https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/cor...ck-if-costs-apply-insurance-expenses/2314302/


I suspect the bigger problem will be the shortage in test kits, for the time being at least.


----------



## Guest

haydnguy said:


> A day after Vice President Mike Pence assured Americans that lab tests for coronavirus would be covered by private and government health insurance, that promise appears to be less than airtight.
> 
> The bottom line: Medicare, Medicaid, and "Obamacare" insurance plans will cover the tests, officials said Thursday. Major insurers also said they will cover such tests. But people with employer-provided insurance should check with their plan because copays and deductibles may apply. State health departments will test for free.
> 
> (sound alert on linked page. sound without warning.)
> 
> https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/cor...ck-if-costs-apply-insurance-expenses/2314302/


Someone has to pay for it. I know it seems like "free" when really it is the government doing it. But it takes somebody time to run those tests, and that person has to be paid. How often do you give away your labor for free? Maybe very occasionally? But on the scale that we might need to combat this? I doubt you'd do it for free. Someone has to make the kits, someone has to collect the samples, someone has to run the tests. When you say free, you really mean taxpayers should pay for it. I'm cool with that for those who can't afford it - but for those who can?


----------



## Strange Magic

DrMike said:


> Someone has to pay for it. I know it seems like "free" when really it is the government doing it. But it takes somebody time to run those tests, and that person has to be paid. How often do you give away your labor for free? Maybe very occasionally? But on the scale that we might need to combat this? I doubt you'd do it for free. Someone has to make the kits, someone has to collect the samples, someone has to run the tests. When you say free, you really mean taxpayers should pay for it. I'm cool with that for those who can't afford it - but for those who can?


This appears to be a political/ideological response to haydnguy's reporting on Pence's statement. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to take such views downstairs into one of the four Political Groups, perhaps the brand-new True Conservative Group would serve best.


----------



## schigolch

DrMike said:


> Someone has to pay for it. I know it seems like "free" when really it is the government doing it. But it takes somebody time to run those tests, and that person has to be paid. How often do you give away your labor for free? Maybe very occasionally? But on the scale that we might need to combat this? I doubt you'd do it for free. Someone has to make the kits, someone has to collect the samples, someone has to run the tests. When you say free, you really mean taxpayers should pay for it. I'm cool with that for those who can't afford it - but for those who can?


In case of an epidemic like that, tests for people suspected of infection are compulsory, and all the cost covered by the federal / state budget.


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> This appears to be a political/ideological response to haydnguy's reporting on Pence's statement. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to take such views downstairs into one of the four Political Groups, perhaps the brand-new True Conservative Group would serve best.


No, it isn't. It is an economics question, and will stay that way unless you try and turn this into a political argument.


----------



## Strange Magic

DrMike said:


> No, it isn't. It is an economics question, and will stay that way unless you try and turn this into a political argument.


Pot/kettle. In DrMikeworld, a discussion of a global pandemic becomes a trigger to discuss ideology as "economics".


----------



## KenOC

First test results are back from the _Grand Princess_, which is at anchor with its 3,500 passengers and crew a mile off San Francisco. Of the 46 people tested, 21 were found to be infected. That certainly doesn't sound good.

Meanwhile, the US as a whole is up to 15 deaths, all but one in the Seattle cluster.

Italy continues to explode with 778 new cases and 49 new deaths. The hospitalization and death rates both seem very high.


----------



## DaveM

Yesterday, a specialist in Nebraska was showing how patients with pneumonia can be diagnosed with coronavirus without a test by looking at a lung cat scan. The typical developing coronavirus pneumonia shows discrete round areas or pockets in the lung relatively distinguishable from pneumonia caused by flu etc.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> First test results are back from the _Grand Princess_, which is at anchor with its 3,500 passengers and crew a mile off San Francisco. Of the 46 people tested, 21 were found to be infected. That certainly doesn't sound good.


We don't know have enough information to judge if that is good or not. Does that mean 46 people had symptoms, were tested, of which 21 were infected, and the other 3,450 passengers are probably clear of the disease? Or does it mean they are testing everyone and of the first 46, 21 were infected, meaning that half to eh 3,500 passengers are infected? Big difference.


----------



## KenOC

Baron Scarpia said:


> We don't know have enough information to judge if that is good or not. Does that mean 46 people had symptoms, were tested, of which 21 were infected, and the other 3,450 passengers are probably clear of the disease? Or does it mean they are testing everyone and of the first 46, 21 were infected, meaning that half to eh 3,500 passengers are infected? Big difference.


I think it's somewhere in between. BTW of the 46 tested, 19 were crew. The ship was already carrying infected passengers on its previous round trip to Mexico, several of whom are now quarantined or hospitalized in Northern California.
*
Won't you let me take you on a sea cruise?*


----------



## KenOC

Here's a comparison of the death rates from the virus to date in several countries. I simply divided the deaths to date by total diagnosed cases to date, not a very good way to do it but easy (always a virtue). Also, I don't trust the numbers broken down in any finer detail, or sometimes even these gross numbers (Iran for example). Anyway, for what it's worth.


----------



## AeolianStrains

Italy and the US to an extent are outliers. In the US, most of the deaths are caused by a nursing home that was hit. Older patients with pre-existing illnesses are sadly more likely to succumb to the illness than younger, healthier adults.

Likewise, many of the deaths in Italy are older, as Italy has a much older population than the US (median age is 45.5 v. 38.1 respectively, and Italy is fifth oldest by median age).

As always with statistics, there are usually confounding factors for a variety of anomalies.


----------



## Luchesi

UOIL (an ETF) has fallen from 24 in early January down to 6 dollars currently. If you think this financial threat will be over in 4 to 6 months it will probably rise to 18 or so.

Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A has fallen from 61 to 41 and is now yielding almost 9 percent (which they probably won't cut).


----------



## KenOC

AeolianStrains said:


> Italy and the US to an extent are outliers. In the US, most of the deaths are caused by a nursing home that was hit. Older patients with pre-existing illnesses are sadly more likely to succumb to the illness than younger, healthier adults.
> 
> Likewise, many of the deaths in Italy are older, as Italy has a much older population than the US (median age is 45.5 v. 38.1 respectively, and Italy is fifth oldest by median age).
> 
> As always with statistics, there are usually confounding factors for a variety of anomalies.


Interesting observations. But Japan has a median age of 46.9 years and a death rate just a third of Italy's. Likewise, Germany's median age is greater than Italy's and its death rate is zero!

Hard to figure.


----------



## AeolianStrains

KenOC said:


> Interesting observations. But Japan has a median age of 46.9 years and a death rate just a third of Italy's. Likewise, Germany's median age is greater than Italy's and its death rate is zero!
> 
> Hard to figure.


It's not so much that older population = more likely to die, but in particular quite a few elderly in US and Italy died. This is clear from the death rate broken down by age, from here. See also this breakdown from a study:



> Of the confirmed cases, 1,023 patients-all in critical condition-died from the virus, which results in a CFR of 2.3%. The CFR jumped considerably among older patients, to 14.8% in patients 80 and older, and 8.0% in patients ages 70 to 79. Among the critically ill, the CFR was 49.0%.


From here: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

Edit:

That said, I'm not trying to make a simplistic case, either. I'm sure the lack of testing in the US is going to contribute to a high death rate. Who knows what all factors are in play right now?


----------



## KenOC

Baron Scarpia said:


> We don't know have enough information to judge if that is good or not. Does that mean 46 people had symptoms, were tested, of which 21 were infected, and the other 3,450 passengers are probably clear of the disease? Or does it mean they are testing everyone and of the first 46, 21 were infected, meaning that half to eh 3,500 passengers are infected? Big difference.


Found this.
-----------------------------
Mary Ellen Carroll, an official at the San Francisco Department of Emergency Management, said the CDC would be selecting which passengers would be tested with their 300 available kits first but that "they are testing folks who were symptomatic first."


----------



## Rogerx

For crying out loud, I can't even see my friends now, we live in the middle of the whole epidemic.


----------



## Ingélou

Rogerx said:


> For crying out loud, I can't even see my friends now, we live in the middle of the whole epidemic.


Sorry to hear it.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Found this.
> -----------------------------
> Mary Ellen Carroll, an official at the San Francisco Department of Emergency Management, said the CDC would be selecting which passengers would be tested with their 300 available kits first but that "they are testing folks who were symptomatic first."


BTW, I read an article that said that a CDC "kit" contains materials for 700-1000 tests, and that assuming two samples are run per person, that is 350-500 people. Maybe they don't really mean "kits," maybe they have one CDC kit and are referring to 300 tests.

Private companies have also developed tests, but since they have not been vetted, you have to be diagnosed by a CDC kit to be included in statistics, I think.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

The Panic of 2020 is strangely serious .


----------



## KenOC

Here's one way of looking at how prevalent the coronavirus is in the countries with the most cases: (based on total cases to date)


----------



## schigolch

*Italy set to quarantine whole of Lombardy due to coronavirus

*https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/italy-set-to


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Tikoo Tuba said:


> The Panic of 2020 is strangely serious .


Ya , do it some more .


----------



## DaveM

Tikoo Tuba said:


> Ya , do it some more .


Are your commas and periods afraid of catching a virus?


----------



## philoctetes

A report says the Corona Princess will be docking at Oakland tomorrow.... aye aye aye


----------



## philoctetes

Now we have "dont test dont tell" trending on twitter... apparently accusing certain officials of covering up the severity of the epidemic... due to the wide spread in statistics across the globe causing suspicion...


----------



## philoctetes

Meanwhile Putin is having his revenge for being America's favorite scapegoat and pulled the plug on the oil business.... the frackers are about to lose money, for better or worse... time to invest in the ruble?


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Meanwhile Putin is having his revenge for being America's favorite scapegoat and pulled the plug on the oil business.... the frackers are about to lose money, for better or worse... time to invest in the ruble?


Oil prices tanked and since Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons, Putin will have less money for his evil machinations. Remember, low oil prices = bad for Russia = good for the rest of the world.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> Oil prices tanked and since Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons, Putin will have less money for his evil machinations. Remember, low oil prices = bad for Russia = good for the rest of the world.


This is a price war between Putin and the Saudis... the US has already lost. The cost of production in the US is far above the others.


----------



## philoctetes

Oil and the dollar have been tightly coupled historically. If and when that coupling breaks the impact is global.


----------



## philoctetes

So jacck who do you despise more, US/Trump or Russia/Putin? You don't seem to have a favorite but hate them both.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> So jacck who do you despise more, US/Trump or Russia/Putin? You don't seem to have a favorite but hate them both.


I hate neither country. I am sorry for the ordinary Russian people who have to live in this semi-totalitarian dysfunctional mafia state, and I am sorry for half of Americans for having to endure Trump. I do not hate or dispise any country or people in the world. I have always issues with the ruling regimes. Though I do not want to drag politics into this thread about the coronavirus


----------



## Guest

philoctetes said:


> This is a price war between Putin and the Saudis... the US has already lost. The cost of production in the US is far above the others.


I don't see Putin with a strong hand. Oil is the only significant export from Russia, so the dollars they get for oil directly determines the amount of goods they can import from the rest of the world. It has gone down from $100 a barrel to $50 a barrel, so they have lost half of their ability to import goods. Only half as much grain, iPhones, cheese.

U.S. shale is at break-even at $50, but the industry is getting more efficient every year. Soon it will be $40, then $30, etc. The petro-states such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Alberta, just get squeezed tighter and tighter. Those places will keep producing no matter what the price, since they have nothing else. Profit or loss is irrelevant, since if they stop producing their economy simply stops.

The point of dumping is normally that you lower prices to drive the competition out of business, then raise them again. They can drive prices down to squeeze shale and create a temporary lull, but as soon as they try to raise prices again shale will roar back and anihilate them.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> I hate neither country. I am sorry for the ordinary Russian people who have to live in this semi-totalitarian dysfunctional mafia state, and I am sorry for half of Americans for having to endure Trump. I do not hate or dispise any country or people in the world. I have always issues with the ruling regimes. Though I do not want to drag politics into this thread about the coronavirus


Thanks for that... we are all under the thumbs of rulers in various ways... humanity has accepted government as a necessary evil. Putin and Trump are the most popular scapegoats on the planet right now, while the ex-presidents who escalated war in the Middle East are honored in the American media like celebrities, like war heroes rather than war criminals.

This is the cultural environment us beloved Americans are saturated with unless we just pull the plug... I try to view for entertainment only... heres' a complete fail that passed the 3 contributors and the whole network's editorial board..

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/watch-msnbcs-brian-williams-and-nyt-editorial-board-member-both-fail-basic-math-on-bloomberg-ad-spending/

You may have noticed the way Joe Biden recently jumped into contention after two candidates dropped out just before Super Tuesday - why would they do that$ Why are the most popular and energetic candidates, Warren and Sanders, having the tables turned on them by their own party$ Why is the common democrat voter being cheated into accepting the least acceptable of options$

So much $ flying around, nevermind the zeros...


----------



## philoctetes

Baron Scarpia said:


> I don't see Putin with a strong hand. Oil is the only significant export from Russia, so the dollars they get for oil directly determines the amount of goods they can import from the rest of the world. It has gone down from $100 a barrel to $50 a barrel, so they have lost half of their ability to import goods. Only half as much grain, iPhones, cheese.
> 
> U.S. shale is at break-even at $50, but the industry is getting more efficient every year. Soon it will be $40, then $30, etc. The petro-states such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Alberta, just get squeezed tighter and tighter. Those places will keep producing no matter what the price, since they have nothing else. Profit or loss is irrelevant, since if they stop producing their economy simply stops.
> 
> The point of dumping is normally that you lower prices to drive the competition out of business, then raise them again. They can drive prices down to squeeze shale and create a temporary lull, but as soon as they try to raise prices again shale will roar back and anihilate them.


Well, this is a thread about Coronavirus, and I'm expecting all these factors (the US swimming in debt) could play out a lot quicker under the CV threat... this is why the Fed acted last week... other wise we'd all be talking about sumpin else...

I don't see how we are squeezing Putin "tighter and tighter" when we need the Fed to keep us from going broke... one of the crucial arguments I see going around is simply who is going to pay for all these medical treatments in the US... and with no profit nobody will provide the services... so when US production can't pay off debt the consumer will buy from who

Fed policy is completely distorting the way Americans see economic reality. I see a lot of headlines about the "carry trade" lately and remember the last time that happened... there is not as much liquidity as we are supposed to think...


----------



## philoctetes

My first employment as a kid was in gas stations... at one station the owner loved to have price wars just to bring in business... it made him pretty popular with customers but not with competition...prices would sometimes drop from 35 to 23 cents, and the frenzy would commence...

Back then, if you worked in these stations, pumping the gas, washing the windows, checking the oil were all routine for a fillup... oil changes, lube jobs, changing / fixing tires, and washing cars by hand were all part of the job, at $1.50/hour...


----------



## Guest

philoctetes said:


> I don't see how we are squeezing Putin "tighter and tighter" when we need the Fed to keep us from going broke... one of the crucial arguments I see going around is simply who is going to pay for all these medical treatments in the US... and with no profit nobody will provide the services... so when US production can't pay off debt the consumer will buy from who


It is not the U.S. government or the Fed that is squeezing Russia and the petro states, it is technical innovation, which is lowering cost and dramatically increasing recoverable reserves in the U.S. I guess you can argue cheap credit facilitates that to some extent. Unlike most of the petro states, oil production in the U.S. is market driven and not controlled by central planning.


----------



## philoctetes

"Unlike most of the petro states, oil production in the U.S. is market driven and not controlled by central planning"

Which is exactly why crashing markets and high debt are not a good thing for the US...


----------



## KenOC

Italy is getting clobbered. It now has more cumulative cases and deaths than any country except China. In the last day alone it reported 1,492 new cases and 366 new deaths, far more than any country _including _China. The authorities are imposing a huge internal quarantine.

"16 days after the beginning of the outbreak, the Italian government took decree today to take exceptional measures to contain about 16 million Italians living in 14 provinces in the north of the country, as well as restrictive measures covering the whole country."


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Italy is getting clobbered. It now has more cumulative cases and deaths than any country except China. In the last day alone it reported 1,492 new cases and 366 new deaths, far more than any country _including _China. The authorities are imposing a huge internal quarantine.
> 
> "16 days after the beginning of the outbreak, the Italian government took decree today to take exceptional measures to contain about 16 million Italians living in 14 provinces in the north of the country, as well as restrictive measures covering the whole country."


I have a feeling that both the WHO and the governments all over the world react with about a 1 month delay to the virus, ie what should have been done a month ago, they are doing now. It took our government until today to order a mandatory 2 week quarantine for anyone traveling from Italy, Iran and China. And some people are really reckless. They know that there is an outbreak in Italy, and they go skiing there, and after that they try to figure out how to avoid the quarantine.


----------



## philoctetes

I just don't understand why they keep transporting patients to previously un-exposed installations given the damn thing is following these paths... AFAIK all these transmissions can be correlated to these links except Seattle which was probably carried over before the China quarantine..

IMO all these treatments and quarantines of returning travellers should be somewhere offshore, not on the mainland... so yes the criticism should be on these agencies who have all the authority and seem to be using it poorly...


----------



## philoctetes

I would hate to be one of these travellers who feels fine but can't return home - welcome to the Princess Kafka...


----------



## KenOC

There are evidently lots of considerations in choosing a quarantine facility. For instance, King County has just bought an Econolodge motel in Kent, WA, to house quarantined cases. Kent officials naturally complained, but the County people said it was the only such facility on the market with no interconnecting air vents (probably below-the-window air conditioner/heaters) and sepatate doors directly to the outside for every room.

For these and other reasons, a ship is probably the _worst _place to be quarantined...


----------



## philoctetes

Italy PM Salvini has called on a short selling ban... and apparently Soros is the first person on his mind...


----------



## CnC Bartok

philoctetes said:


> Italy PM Salvini has called on a short selling ban... and apparently Soros is the first person on his mind...


Yay! Another Jewish conspiracy theory. Easier to blame the Jews than the actual virus itself......


----------



## KenOC

Two more deaths in the Seattle cluster, occurring like most there at the Life Care Center, a nursing home in Kirkland. But there may be bigger problems. From KOMO news:

“Since February 19, Life Care accounted for 180 employees with 70 of them showing symptoms. They are self-quarantining at home. As for moving seemingly healthy people out of Life Center, KOMO News is told no one wants to take them in.

“…Life Care is not testing their employees. They don't have enough kits to do that, Killian added.”


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Why is the common democrat voter being cheated into accepting the least acceptable of options$


Why are you asking that as if it's a fact?


----------



## philoctetes

CnC Bartok said:


> Yay! Another Jewish conspiracy theory. Easier to blame the Jews than the actual virus itself......


Seems this was a running feud already, it's all new to me... over here some Americans are blaming Italy's health-care system for already being exhausted... for others the CDC is losing credibility and it's just a matter of time for the US to have a huge outbreak like Italy and S Korea...

Ted Cruz is now in quarantine... time to say "litmus test" in a new context...


----------



## philoctetes

DaveM said:


> Why are you asking that as if it's a fact?


Joe Biden is the David Crosby of the Democrat party...


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Joe Biden is the David Crosby of the Democrat party...


That's some real deep thinking going on there.


----------



## KenOC

Hold onto your hats as coronavirus fears increase. Dow futures are down 1,200 this evening, and crude oil futures have dropped 25% to almost $30, heading toward $20 a barrel as a price war rages between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The US shale oil industry looks to be a casualty. Uncharted territory.


----------



## DaveM

New case has turned up in Riverside County, So.California. Patient transferred to Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage. BNP Paribas Tennis Tournament due to start in the next week or two in nearby Indian Wells just cancelled.

Will Coachella Music Festival be next?


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> Will Coachella Music Festival be next?


Likely. "AUSTIN, Texas - Officials in the state capital declared a disaster late Friday due to fears of the coronavirus, effectively canceling the South by Southwest music festival..."

My son, who had dinner with us tonight, has been in the event industry for years. He reports many cancellations, evidently increasing, and very much fears for his economic situation. His wife is expecting their first... We are already making plans for them to move in with us, just in case. Could be a very rough patch ahead.


----------



## Sad Al

Max von Sydow, the film star of 'Seventh Sign' dies exactly when the coronavirus epidemic is here. Another clue, my dear Watson.


----------



## Jacck

the Czech media translated an interview with a doctor from Italy. Here is the Italian interview
https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie...88-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml?refresh_ce-cp
alas, I can speak Italian just un poco, though you can use google translater
https://translate.google.cz/transla...88-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

he describes how dangerous it is, how the doctors get infected even despite using protective measures, how some of the doctors spread it to their families and some older family members died as a consequence.


----------



## philoctetes

Spring is here, gas is cheap again, now please stay home... the Corona Princess is about to dock at Oakland, not far from where I *used* to live... a good friend works at Port of Oakland so I won't be seeing him for a while... if this thing hits the streets of Oakland the Bay Area is doomed...

To the fellow who asked why I state my opinions as facts, one good answer is that I've come to dislike arguing about them with others in our currently information-skewed society.. As for deep thinking, try my local press who managed to concoct the most amazing phrase "Coronavirus oil price war" on their headline this morning, which is why they make the big bucks...

Anyway, look at those oil prices... which y'all think is good for the US... whether or not the virus spreads will be a huge factor, but if it doesn't, the oil war will decouple as a market driver and a lot of investors may not see that.


----------



## Sad Al

philoctetes said:


> Oil and the dollar have been tightly coupled historically. If and when that coupling breaks the impact is global.


Food and money (i.e. honey and money) have been tightly coupled historically. If and when that coupling breaks the impact is global.
In other words, food is honey. Honey and money have been tightly coupled historically. Coronavirus is here to break the coupling between honey and money.


----------



## Guest

Well, oil price itself is fairly weak driver of the U.S. economy. Low oil price tends to be a general stimulus, although the energy sector, including exports, suffers. Low oil price is a marker, rather than a driver of recession, although even that is tenuous, since the biggest oil price collapse in recent memory was 2015, and was driven dramatic increase in supply, and was worse than 2008, when demand faltered.


----------



## haydnguy

KenOC said:


> Likely. "AUSTIN, Texas - Officials in the state capital declared a disaster late Friday due to fears of the coronavirus, effectively canceling the South by Southwest music festival..."
> 
> My son, who had dinner with us tonight, has been in the event industry for years. He reports many cancellations, evidently increasing, and very much fears for his economic situation. His wife is expecting their first... We are already making plans for them to move in with us, just in case. Could be a very rough patch ahead.


I saw yesterday that indeed they have cancelled the South by Southwest festival. The report I read said that it would be a huge affect on Austin's economy and that it would affect a lot of hospitality industry. I'm sorry about your son. Very hard time at any time but especially when they are expecting a child.


----------



## haydnguy

I was reading where the Fed is supposed to have a scheduled meeting in March where they expected to lower the interest rate again. If they lower the interest rate to zero does that mean that banks will also lower their interest rates to zero?


----------



## philoctetes

Sad Al said:


> Food and money (i.e. honey and money) have been tightly coupled historically. If and when that coupling breaks the impact is global.
> In other words, food is honey. Honey and money have been tightly coupled historically. Coronavirus is here to break the coupling between honey and money.


I hear Robert Plant and Alison Kraus singing when I read this...


----------



## philoctetes

haydnguy said:


> I was reading where the Fed is supposed to have a scheduled meeting in March where they expected to lower the interest rate again. If they lower the interest rate to zero does that mean that banks will also lower their interest rates to zero?


It's hard to interpret financial commentary sometimes, but this morning I saw an argument that the Fed should go in reverse, to which I thought, they no longer have a reverse gear... but I think the idea is that after years of liquidity programs, the Treasury needs some of that cash back to support emergency programs...

My second thought was to look at the market bubble they're created, still flirting with zero rates again, and how that bubble has now been popped. If there is a better time to load up on bullets again, by selling more treasuries, raising more cash, and letting rates float, when is it?

Apologies in advance for shallow thinking or false factualizing...


----------



## philoctetes

Baron Scarpia said:


> Well, oil price itself is fairly weak driver of the U.S. economy. Low oil price tends to be a general stimulus, although the energy sector, including exports, suffers. Low oil price is a marker, rather than a driver of recession, although even that is tenuous, since the biggest oil price collapse in recent memory was 2015, and was driven dramatic increase in supply, and was worse than 2008, when demand faltered.


Disclaimer on financial contracts: "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance"


----------



## philoctetes

I mean, if everything is gonna be just like it has in the past, there must be no crisis to worry about and we should all just get back to our usual business... as somebody in the WH has been saying but nobody believes... so which is it, crisis, no crisis, what crisis? Time for Supertramp!


----------



## haydnguy

philoctetes said:


> It's hard to interpret financial commentary sometimes, but this morning I saw an argument that the Fed should go in reverse, to which I thought, they no longer have a reverse gear... but I think the idea is that after years of liquidity programs, the Treasury needs some of that cash back to support emergency programs...
> 
> My second thought was to look at the market bubble they're created, still flirting with zero rates again, and how that bubble has now been popped. If there is a better time to load up on bullets again, by selling more treasuries, raising more cash, and letting rates float, when is it?


I agree with you. The Fed has been helping the stock markets bull run to the detriment of our long term interests. I read things like "the markets have already priced in a rate cut by the Fed." To me, that is a signal from the markets to the Fed that they expect that from the Fed. The Fed, then accommodates the markets. Even if we didn't have the coronavirus and the oil problem, there was a "bubble burst" waiting to happen although it wouldn't have been as dangerous as the one we have now.


----------



## philoctetes

A 500+ exposure at a church in Georgetown has been announced and official announcements on quarantine actions are pending...

This is what I'm afraid will happen in Oakland...


----------



## haydnguy

philoctetes said:


> A 500+ exposure at a church in Georgetown has been announced and official announcements on quarantine actions are pending...
> 
> This is what I'm afraid will happen in Oakland...


I used to live about a half mile from there. Not only people in the church but no doubt he rubbed shoulders with many people outside the church. Wow!


----------



## haydnguy

Dow Jones now -2,089, -8.09%


----------



## philoctetes

haydnguy said:


> Dow Jones now -2,089, -8.09%


Yeah, I'm not a buyer yet... we may not have an up day for some time... by that I mean, until there is good news


----------



## DaveM

Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York just introduced a 70% spray alcohol sanitizer produced by the state. What a smart idea! There’s no guarantee that it will prevent spread of the virus, but it should have a beneficial psychological effect, particularly when people see the empty sanitizer shelves and feel helpless. It also reassures people that their government is doing something constructive.


----------



## AeolianStrains

DaveM said:


> Andrew Cuomo, mayor of New York just introduced a 70% spray alcohol sanitizer produced by the state. What a smart idea! There's no guarantee that it will prevent spread of the virus, but it should have a beneficial psychological effect, particularly when people see the empty sanitizer shelves and feel helpless. It also reassures people that their government is doing something constructive.


Correction, governor of New York the _state_. Not that I love the mayor De Blasio, but Cuomo and the mayor are very, very different persons.


----------



## KenOC

"Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures, which include a ban on public gatherings, to the entire country. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that people would only be permitted to travel for work or family emergencies." Full story *here*.


----------



## KenOC

There have now been 21 deaths in the Seattle cluster, 13 of them elderly residents at the Life Care Center in Kirkland. The Center just announced that it has tested 35 more residents – 31 tests came back positive.

Of the Center’s 180 employees, 70 have reported symptoms and are self-quarantined at their homes. None have been tested yet.

BTW the Seattle cluster accounts for just over 80% of all the coronavirus deaths in the US so far.


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> He is more corrupt than an African dictator. He will obtain hundred times more by profiteering from the presidency
> https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/opinion/trump-administration-corruption-conflicts.html





KenOC said:


> "Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures, which include a ban on public gatherings, to the entire country. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that people would only be permitted to travel for work or family emergencies." Full story *here*.


*ITALY* is on lockdown.

*Israel* is putting visitors on a 14-day quarantine. That sounds like a lockdown as well.

In France the government prohibited events with more than 1,000 people in attendance. Madonna had to cancel two concerts

Meanwhile, in the USA, Trump is congratulating his coronavirus response: "We've done a fantastic job," he said on Saturday.

That's actually a change from his earlier stance that it was "Fake news". Today's press conference announced that they'll have a press conference on Tuesday. "I think we've handled it very very well," Mr. Trump said of his administration's response.

And they spent a decent amount of time addressing the economic consequences: The president said the White House that his administration is working with Congress and businesses to make sure hourly workers "*never miss a paycheck*," as well as with the hospitality industry and cruise companies and airlines. Mr. Trump said members of his administration will speak with Congress on Tuesday about a possible *payroll tax cut*, too.

*As of March 10, 2020 at 00:43 GMT, there have been 668 confirmed cases and 26 deaths due to coronavirus COVID-19 in the United States.
*

Finding information about the coronavirus in the US has become a game of hide and seek, with the CDC muzzled by the White House; for instance, the CDC is no longer publishing Patients Under Investigation reports. The CDC website is behind on statistics (listing only 19 deaths and 423 total cases), and is basically simply giving tips on prevention.

It won't be long before the effects of event cancellations also starts affecting the economy.

The St. Patrick's Day parade in Boston has been cancelled.
The economic cost of major tech events canceled due to coronavirus has passed $1 billion
South by Southwest (SXSW), an annual media festival in Austin, Texas
Adobe cancelled its annual live summit
HIMSS, a health-technology conference in Orlando was also canceled
Facebook canceled its annual Global Marketing Summit in San Francisco
Shopify canceled its annual developer conference, Unite
Ultra Music Festival, which takes place in July in Miami, was also cancelled

Expect many more events to be cancelled: Sports, concerts, conventions.

*And WORLDWIDE*?

More than 113,000 people have been infected and nearly 4,000 have died. . . . . that we know of.


----------



## DaveM

AeolianStrains said:


> Correction, governor of New York the _state_. Not that I love the mayor De Blasio, but Cuomo and the mayor are very, very different persons.


Thanks for the correction.


----------



## starthrower

Living at the crossroads of NY State here in Syracuse I feel like it's only a matter of time before someone here tests positive and the local news gets everyone in a panic. My wife and I decided we're going to do some shopping tomorrow and stock up on a few things before all hell breaks loose. The less we have to go out, the better off we'll be. I haven't been doing too good as far as getting over colds and sinus infections in recent years so I don't need to test my system by getting this deadly virus.


----------



## Jacck

our state has finally woken up. All schools are closed down indefinitely (which creates problems for working parents), all gatherings with over 100 people are prohibited, mandatory quarantines for travellers, screenings of foreigners entering the country etc. We can only hope that the epidemic will not reach such intensity as in Italy, where the capacity of the healthcare system is overloaded.


----------



## chill782002

Meanwhile, the government in the UK does very little apart from encouraging people to wash their hands regularly. There are no checks at airports or seaports and no limitations on travel into or out of the country. It has been alleged that the government's thinking is that letting the virus run its course might result in a lesser economic impact than that of locking down the country as the Italians have done. Although, that said, Italy is not stopping people entering or leaving the country but is concentrating instead on restricting travel within its borders.


----------



## schigolch

The goverment in Spain was doing pretty much nothing, too. Then, the cases and the deaths started to escalate and now they start to take some action, and it seems that they will announce a new one daily. Of course, always one or two steps behind the virus.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

How to get a free lunch ... pretend to sneeze on your money .


----------



## Jacck

COVID-19 can transmit 4.5m in closed air-conditioned environment: study
really bad for all those relying on public transport to go to work. The face masks might show to be very important in stopping the virus. Europe should take hint from China


----------



## philoctetes

Santa Clara County (aka Silicon Valley) has called off all public gatherings of > 1000 people. No more Sharks games I guess.

Bad news for Trump-haters... Gavin Newsom of all people praised Trump's cooperation with California... with no reservations... tell me this is not a good thing

https://www.newsweek.com/californias-democrat-governor-praises-trumps-coronavirus-response-every-single-thing-he-said-1491294

Fauci's recommendation of "social distancing" is likely to be met with neglect or even defiance in some communities... some people just aren't going to accept it and this is how the virus will keep spreading... especially with younger people getting the idea that it's no big deal for them... some are even wishing for a mass boomer die-off... the infections from the CPAC are very suspicious in that sense... so without any actual physical restrictions, and insufficient testing to track the infections... this thing will literally keep sneaking around under our noses.

The mortality stats from King County WA are alarming but I believe those are all elders in an assisted living facility... I'm guessing it will be lower within general "healthy" populations...


----------



## Potiphera

Tikoo Tuba said:


> How to get a free lunch ... pretend to sneeze on your money .


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> ...The mortality stats from King County WA are alarming but I believe those are all elders in an assisted living facility... I'm guessing it will be lower within general "healthy" populations...


The latest info I have is 23 deaths in Washington state from the coronavirus, 22 in the Seattle cluster. Of these 19 were "associated with" the Life Care Center in Kirkland, with at least 13 being deaths of residents. 31 more residents have tested positive for the virus.


----------



## Sad Al

Jacck said:


> [The face masks might show to be very important in stopping the virus.


Shop until you drop.


----------



## perempe

I didn't attend Sunday's Budapest FO concert with Savall, today's Hungarian RSO concert (Das Paradies und die Peri), will miss tomorrow's Budapest Strings Chamber Orchestra concert as well. the information Liszt Academy provided isn't comforting enough.


----------



## KenOC

Looked like the curves were flattening out there for a while…


----------



## Sad Al

Baron Scarpia said:


> Well, oil price itself is fairly weak driver of the U.S. economy.


Actually, oil is economy. Food you eat is oil. Cheap oil has been burned and stays in the atmosphere as carbon. Expensive oil will stay in the ground.


----------



## starthrower

Stopped by my local grocery store this afternoon and all the toilet paper is sold out. Good thing I still have some left at home! I can't imagine what it's going to be like if the virus actually infects local residents. People need to get a grip.


----------



## premont

Sad Al said:


> Actually, oil is economy. Food you eat is oil. Cheap oil has been burned and stays in the atmosphere as carbon. Expensive oil will stay in the ground.


Would you mind to elaborate these cryptic suggestions?

I can agree that oil is economy -- but the rest??

Food you eat is oil????????

And what is the chemical difference between cheap and expensive oil? Does cheap oil result in more carbon in the atmosphere?


----------



## premont

starthrower said:


> Stopped by my local grocery store this afternoon and all the toilet paper is sold out. Good thing I still have some left at home! I can't imagine what it's going to be like if the virus actually infects local residents. People need to get a grip.


To day we had a threefold rise of coronavirus cases in one day in my country. Rather worrying, and we may look forward to a complet lockdown of the community in foreseeable time. Chinese or Italien conditions. You are free to choose.


----------



## TxllxT

Here a link to a BILD-video from Luca Franzese from Naples (German subtitles, Italian language) 



 His sister (47 years old) died within 24 hours. While making the video he's still waiting for medics to come to his apartment. In Italy the mortality rate is steeply rising (6.8 %).


----------



## senza sordino

Our city (and country) had its first death yesterday. We've been doing okay compared to other jurisdictions, but is that luck or better management? I dunno.

What I've been hearing and if true, this is what worries me: You can be a carrier and not have any symptoms, and then pass the virus on to someone else. Unlike other flues and colds, you pass on the virus when you show symptoms. So there have been cases, particularly on that cruise ship in Japan, where some people tested positive for Covid-19, had no symptoms and then tested negative after some time. So they had no illness. But the troubling thing is that they can still infect others, who might get very ill or die. 

I don't own a car. I will try to avoid public transit for the foreseeable future. I walk or cycle to work. I get most of my groceries delivered (have done for years). 

I had the swine flu back in September / October 2019. It wiped me out for ten days. I don't want to get sick like that again. And I am around lots of young people who have regular contact with people in China and Iran and Italy. 

What, me worried?


----------



## KenOC

Some scary numbers. Two of the most active countries right now are Italy and South Korea, each with infection rates of around 150 persons per million. S. Korea's outbreak seems to be slowing down, Italy's…not yet.

Anyway, each country reports active cases as well as cases resolved - by either recovery or death. Ultimately, the fatality rate will be deaths divided by the sum of recoveries plus deaths. By that measure, which admittedly has some real problems at this point, the fatality rates in both countries appear extraordinarily high, far from the commonly quoted 2.5-3.5%.

Maybe something wrong with the numbers?


----------



## schigolch

This happened also in China, at the beginning there are many patients that are going to recover, but they are not yet given the all-clear.

Now, the fatality rate in China defined as Deaths / Resolved Cases (Discharged + Deaths) is around 5%.

The fatality rate usually mentioned by WHO is simply Deaths / Total Cases. Using this definition, Italy has now 6,2% while Korea's is just 0,8%.


----------



## KenOC

schigolch said:


> This happened also in China, at the beginning there are many patients that are going to recover, but they are not yet given the all-clear.


There are also patients that are going to die. The fatality rate will decline only if the active cases have better luck than the cases already resolved. Let's hope that's the case!

Not so relevant, but the infection rate in Italy is over three times higher than in China, all cases known to date counted.


----------



## DaveM

Coachella & Stagecoach Music Festivals cancelled until October.


----------



## Open Book

Harvard and MIT are reportedly both going to have all students do all courses online. It amazes me they would do that to keep people away from each other.

Meanwhile I'm sure Harvard Square is still the busiest place on a Saturday as it ever was in the days I used to frequent it. It was elbow-to-elbow crowded. Are people going to stop shopping and going to restaurants and hanging out in the parks? Just living in an urban area puts you in close proximity to so many people. So does working with the public in a brick and mortar establishment. It seems almost silly to cancel concerts, tennis tournaments, and alter classes when there are so many other ways people are thrown in close proximity.

I'm more worried about the economy when people stop doing normal things than I am about the virus. Not stock market investor hiccups, but real losses of business being suffered, which will ripple.

I live in a low density area. I have been housebound for months recovering from surgery, except for occasional grocery trips. The person I live with works entirely from home and almost never shops. We've both been hermits this winter. Still he caught a seasonal cold and probably passed it on to me. How the heck did that happen? What hope is there to choke off a virus when an ordinary cold is so transmissible?

The science of how contagious disease spreads would probably be fascinating if we could decipher it.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Some scary numbers. Two of the most active countries right now are Italy and South Korea, each with infection rates of around 150 persons per million. Italy's outbreak seems to be slowing down, Italy's…not yet.
> 
> Anyway, each country reports active cases as well as cases resolved - by either recovery or death. Ultimately, the fatality rate will be deaths divided by the sum of recoveries plus deaths. By that measure, which admittedly has some real problems at this point, the fatality rates in both countries appear extraordinarily high, far from the commonly quoted 2.5-3.5%.
> 
> Maybe something wrong with the numbers?


Which one is slowing down, South Korea or Italy?

What does the column Recovered + Died mean? They seemed to get better, then died anyway??


----------



## philoctetes

The market sure proved me wrong, I guess it thought the overnight "delta" in US cases was assuring.... I'm OK with that but if more closures and cancellations are coming I would expect more drops...

I certainly find all these pre-emptive measures by schools and event organizers to be encouraging and hope they give us an edge. But my personal life will take a big hit - I was planning on lots of travel, including some music events, this spring and summer and now my best option is to stay home until the air is clear again... O that magic feeling and nowhere to go...


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> Which one is slowing down, South Korea or Italy?
> 
> What does the column Recovered + Died mean? They seemed to get better, then died anyway??


South Korea is slowing down, with fewer cases (generally) each day. Italy is the opposite.

"Recovered + Died" is simply the sum of resolved cases. It's equal to total cases less active cases (column 2 minus column 3). A case is resolved when a patient is free of disease (and is discharged) or else dies.


----------



## philoctetes

Luchesi said:


> UOIL (an ETF) has fallen from 24 in early January down to 6 dollars currently. If you think this financial threat will be over in 4 to 6 months it will probably rise to 18 or so.
> 
> Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A has fallen from 61 to 41 and is now yielding almost 9 percent (which they probably won't cut).


OXY investors just got burned today... divvy cut from 79c to 11c. Others may follow...

This stuff will be made to look like economic damage in the media - I think NBC said that Italy was "risking its entire economy" to stop CV... the damage is that such headlines promote backwards thinking...

These big oilers have a better chance to survive after they cut payouts... if and when their bond ratings fall would be more significant... And the smaller ones, a lot of them MLPs, and the shalers, will feel the impact the most... unfortunately I'm holding one MLP that is down 35%

We'll see damage later as well when heavily gas-dependent companies report losses due to poor hedging...


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> "Recovered + Died" is simply the sum of resolved cases. It's equal to total cases less active cases (column 2 minus column 3). A case is resolved when a patient is free of disease (and is discharged) or else dies.


The death rate is rightly computed from the resolved cases, active ones are not included.

631/1635 x 100 = 38.6 % Italy
58/305 x 100 = 19.0 % South Korea

What terrible numbers. The U.S. is not doing nearly as badly so far according to the New York Times site. Washington state is the worst at 8.8% fatality, but there might be reasons for that. Like, if it was the first state affected and doctors were less prepared than they are with new cases. Or if a vulnerable nursing home population was affected. I guess the U.S. still has a small sample size, though.


----------



## DaveM

Without more testing, the U.S. overall mortality rate can’t be determined. The fatality rate in Washington state is more an indication of what it may be among people with serious disease.


----------



## Jacck

I find strange the difference in mortality between Italy and Germany. Germany has 1600 cases and just 2 dead. Is it a better healtcare system? Were different populations infected (young in Germany, old in Italy)? Is it some genetic difference between Germans and Italians?


----------



## mikeh375

Jacck said:


> I find strange the difference in mortality between Italy and Germany. Germany has 1600 cases and just 2 dead. Is it a better healtcare system? Were different populations infected (young in Germany, old in Italy)? Is it some genetic difference between Germans and Italians?


That is odd, could be skewed or biased/inaccurate data perhaps. Lots of heavy smokers in parts of Europe!


----------



## schigolch

If you read about what's happening in Lombardy the last week, the major issue there is that the healthcare system is close to collapse. This has a big impact in mortality.

Is the same case than in Wuhan and the rest of China.


CASESDEATHSMortality rateTOTAL CHINA8077831583,91% HUBEI PROVINCE6780830444,49% OTHER PROVINCES129701140,88%

The difference here has nothing to do with age or genetics, is simply that Wuhan's healthcare system was collapsed.

To care for coronavirus critical patients is not rocket science. Almost any decent UCI in the world can take care. The big difference is when you have more patients in very serious condition than beds, and you need to decide who is going to die, and who you are going to try to save.


----------



## Jacck

yes, but even if you compare Germany to Spain (both have roughly the same number of infections), Germany has 10 times less patients in critical condition and 10 times fewer dead


----------



## schigolch

Same difference with France, that is roughly in the same situation than Spain.

My feeling is that the difference in this case is coming probably from a statistical fluke, we will see in next days, as the outbreak evolves in the 3 countries. I doubt that German doctors are using a different treatment, or different drugs, than in the rest of Europe.


----------



## jurianbai

Just stopping by to read this thread. I am mostly want to know the situation on the other side of the world, meaning EU and NA. I am here in SE Asia. Corona virus is now a major concern to all countries here. Even though we aware that the virus is carefully being taking care and statistically not (very) deadly if fast treatment applied, the panic is the bigger part of the game. Flights are being cancelled. Masker already a rare items here, sold at very high price. At this week, situation has cool down a lot and groceries are back to normal, except for masker still.


----------



## erki

It was accurately said that this virus spreads very well in internet.
So we have two planes to ask the question of its seriousness - medical and economical. My understanding is that the latter is much more serious.


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Also in China, with bad air pollution and the large portion of the population which smokes, it's clear to see that they have some underlying health conditions among the regular people, not just the elderly or the children. It makes what would be a bad illness even worse.


----------



## philoctetes

This morning:

1000 cases in US
National Guard in NY for containment
Fed injects record $132B in over night repo
Core CPI jumps to 12 year high as service costs soar
Goldman cuts S&P target to 2450, calls bull market over


----------



## pianozach

philoctetes said:


> OXY investors just got burned today... divvy cut from 79c to 11c. . . .


I saw that OXY went down 50% on the News . . . but THAT's a LOT more . . . .


----------



## philoctetes

The market is what's called a falling knife, try to catch yesterday's bounce and bleed profusely the next day...

It's not hard to estimate the impact of OXY's divvy cut by computing the present value of those future payouts that investors will no longer get. And the lower one assumes interest rates to be, the higher that value will be. The remaining impact on their business due to economic decline is harder to estimate, but debt is a key factor.


----------



## philoctetes

I can cite another major reason the Fed is reluctant to let rates rise... many businesses, taking advantage of low rates, elevate their stock price but compound their risk by leveraging stock buybacks... this has been a secondary factor whenever easy money bubbles have popped in the past... so if rates rise, and stocks fall, those companies are double deep trouble, like a common investor getting a margin call. In a way these companies are putting the Fed in handcuffs by overborrowing and coupling low risk with much higher risk...... the borrowed funds are not applied to productivity, but pumped-up stock returns...


----------



## Jacck

I would like to see some statistics regarding smoking status. The virus enters the cells through the ACE2 molecule
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/11/science/how-coronavirus-hijacks-your-cells.html

and the gene expression of the ACE2 is differentially regulated in smokers
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1

so yes, smoking could be a significant risk factor for the 2019-nCov morbidity or mortality


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> I would like to see some statistics regarding smoking status. /QUOTE]
> 
> I doubt that China or S Korea would cooperate much with that


----------



## philoctetes

The prospect of holding March Madness with no fans at the games, is being seriously considered... while under pressure to cancel entirely... some teams are dropping out voluntarily... not cool if you're a senior on one of the contenders... 

Get your refunds while ya can... I'm expecting some venues and orgs will ask customers to "donate" their refunds


----------



## Huilunsoittaja

Jacck said:


> I would like to see some statistics regarding smoking status. The virus enters the cells through the ACE2 molecule
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/11/science/how-coronavirus-hijacks-your-cells.html
> 
> and the gene expression of the ACE2 is differentially regulated in smokers
> https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1
> 
> so yes, smoking could be a significant risk factor for the 2019-nCov morbidity or mortality


https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/smoking-rate-statistics perhaps this is useful. You can google Chinese smoker statistics on google and come up with a number of things, accuracy of the information to be decided for yourself.


----------



## Jacck

Huilunsoittaja said:


> https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/smoking-rate-statistics perhaps this is useful. You can google Chinese smoker statistics on google and come up with a number of things, accuracy of the information to be decided for yourself.


looking at the smoking per capita in different countries, it does not look like there is any apparent correlation with the mortality in those countries. We would need to have the information about smoking status in each coronavirus case (it is likely gathered by the doctors, but is likely not given to the central authorities where they report the cases)


----------



## philoctetes

Looks like Boeing may be one of the first corporate coronavirus victims... they had secured support to recover from their 737 crisis and now they want all that cash $13B for the downturn they're expecting... also losing money on buyback shares... and probably have high fuel prices booked (hedged) in futures to unwind...


----------



## Barbebleu

Given that the WHO has declared Covid-19 as a pandemic I’d say that, in answer to the OP, pretty serious.


----------



## philoctetes

CBS Marketwatch: "Bernie Sanders is finished, and health stocks are a screaming buy"

The day in a nutshell

And more: "Dow down 20% from peak, enters bear market"


----------



## DaveM

In general, it has been known for some time that smokers have a risk of greater mortality from various pulmonary viral and bacterial infections. Smokers with the flu are more likely to develop bacterial pneumonia. All of this is expected since the consequences of years of smoking are COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and emphysema which compromise lung function and inevitably oxygen exchange.


----------



## atsizat

I dont believe in the virus.

Every once a while there is a virus. Different name, same s***.


----------



## adriesba

I just found out that next week, SUNY schools here in New York will switch to online classes only, and many schools will probably not have an in-person commencement ceremony. 

My biology professor thought all this canceling school and online class stuff was ridiculous and that if the goal was to stop the disease from spreading, the only sure way to do so would be for everything including grocery stores to close. I'm not sure if he's right or what I think of the decision. All I know is that I'm starting to feel sad.

I spent 12 years doing Kindergarten through 12th grade in front of a screen for school and was very much ready for a change. Now it looks like I'll have to spend even more work time in front of a screen. It also looks like I may have to say goodbye to my professors sooner since I'm supposed to transfer in the fall. 

I think they will be letting people do some labs still, but I don't know what will happen to my lab classes. I was supposed to do an honors project for another class, but if I can't go to a lab it won't work.

I don't know what to think of it. I'm just sad. 

Hopefully the virus doesn't spread up this way. What's the saddest is how many people are getting the virus in the first place.


----------



## KenOC

I'll be heading for Seattle on Sunday...


----------



## Bulldog

KenOC said:


> I'll be heading for Seattle on Sunday...


That doesn't sound like a great idea.


----------



## DaveM

atsizat said:


> I dont believe in the virus...


I'm sure the virus feels awfully bad about that. FYI, Milan and Venice, Italy are under relative quarantine and travel is limited. During January and February (and before) there were several direct flights from those cities to Istanbul.


----------



## schigolch

Jacck said:


> yes, but even if you compare Germany to Spain (both have roughly the same number of infections), Germany has 10 times less patients in critical condition and 10 times fewer dead


A possible explanation (in Spanish):

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mund...onavirus-alemania-solo-muertes-exito_2491368/


----------



## atsizat

DaveM said:


> I'm sure the virus feels awfully bad about that. FYI, Milan and Venice, Italy are under relative quarantine and travel is limited. During January and February (and before) there were several direct flights from those cities to Istanbul.


I would kick the a** of the virus. It would fly back. Lol.


----------



## Luchesi

Has anyone recovered and then come down with it again?


----------



## KenOC

Luchesi said:


> Has anyone recovered and then come down with it again?


Some cases. Thought to be either not totally cleared initially or else a second infection contracted independently of the first. These cases seem to be pretty rare.


----------



## AeolianStrains

atsizat said:


> I would kick the a** of the virus. It would fly back. Lol.


Everyone's a tough guy until they're leveled by an army of microbes.


----------



## KenOC

We went to my long-time favorite Chinese restaurant today for lunch. This is a very large restaurant, always crammed full at lunch, mostly by ethnic Chinese. It’s bustling and noisy with a huge menu ranging from familiar to obscure to “I can’t believe people really eat this” dishes.

Anyway, it was like a tomb. Quiet, with maybe 10% of the tables taken. Most of the staff obviously weren’t there. The food was good but it was a pretty sad experience. At least the staff weren’t wearing masks, unlike at the adjoining Chinese supermarket.


----------



## starthrower

Dollar Tree has toilet paper! Now I won't have to spend money buying the Sunday news. Customers in Australia are fist fighting over this commodity. I bought only two 4 packs because I'd rather not be a selfish pr#ck.


----------



## SixFootScowl

According to this article it may take 6 months to get through this. That is a lot of toilet paper.

*Experts skeptical that warm weather will slow COVID-19 outbreak*


----------



## tdc

Sars, swine flu, ebola, coronavirus, etc. Is it just me or do these things always come out on election years in the U.S.A.? What's up with that?

As usual the presstitutes are blowing it out of proportion creating as much fear and panic as possible. Quarantines and shutting down major events over a virus that kills virtually no one outside of the very old? The WHO and CDC should be investigated for corruption. 

Maybe we are in the midst of another financial crash, which bankers can now conveniently blame on the coronavirus. 

The only thing to really be afraid of here is the government using this as an excuse to take away more civil liberties and freedoms from the people. This is their whole game ad infinitum. Create problems that will demand just the kind of solutions they already wanted. (Like a cashless society, mandatory vaccinations, decreased civil liberties, police state etc.)


----------



## Jacck

schigolch said:


> A possible explanation (in Spanish):
> 
> https://www.elconfidencial.com/mund...onavirus-alemania-solo-muertes-exito_2491368/


it looks like a good explanation. Germany simply did not sleep during testing and allowed all labs to do the tests. In other countries, the efforts to stop the virus were hindered by the central authorities. I read that CDC prohibited other labs to do the tests. So if the data from Germany are true, they are much closer to the true mortality of the disease. In Italy and other countries, they have diagnosed just the tip of the iceberg. So extrapolating the data from Germany, if italy has roughly 10 000 cases, while in reality there are likely 100 000 cases or more already there.


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> So extrapolating the data from Germany, if italy has roughly 10 000 cases, while in reality there are likely 100 000 cases or more already there.


This means that the mortality rate is not as high as counted- actually 10x lower. Good news, if true.


----------



## erki

tdc said:


> The only thing to really be afraid of here is the government using this as an excuse to take away more civil liberties and freedoms from the people.


However cynical it sounds but I believe it will happen. First you have a reason to establish some strict rules but afterwards when people have got used to it it is no reason to relax these totally. There always are people who believe in strong ruled government - both among rulers and public. Some people just like somebody else to make their decisions.


----------



## mrdoc

What was Corovid 18?


----------



## premont

tdc said:


> As usual the presstitutes are blowing it out of proportion creating as much fear and panic as possible. Quarantines and shutting down major events over a virus that *kills virtually no one outside of the very old?* The WHO and CDC should be investigated for corruption.


Very old?? It seems as if you are at higher risk already in you 50es. And if the worst scenario comes true, and 60% or more of the populations contracts the CoVID19, many people in all age groups will die from it.


----------



## Art Rock

Plus, even if it does not kill you, a substantial percentage will require hospitalization at about the same time - exceeding the number of beds and staff available.


----------



## schigolch

This is exactly what has happened already in Wuhan and in Lombardy. And it will happen again in Madrid, in a couple of days.

Not only coronavirus patients, all other people with a heart attack, a cerebral stroke, a traffic accident,... can be impacted too.

Reinforce as much as possible the health system, and avoid as much as possible social contact.


----------



## starthrower

As has been already stated many times by health officials, using common sense and taking precautions to avoid infection is the logical thing to do. Freaking out and raiding every store for toilet paper proves that people are in a panic. As far as the civil liberties issue, I have no doubt that many would trade freedom for security.


----------



## aleazk

I read somewhere that Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive for the virus!


----------



## Sad Al

Well, according to Dr Dennis Meadows, co-author of the famous book 'Limits to Growth'", behind every calorie of food ten calories of fossil fuels are used for its production, transportation, storage, preparation and disposal. Food doesn't just miraculously materialize from nowhere into your local supermarket. 
What is more, according to Dr Albert Bartlett, the famous physicist, modern agriculture is converting oil and natural gas to food.
Food is oil. Before the age of fossil fuels the world population was under 1 billion, now it is almost 8 billion. Think about those numbers and Meadows' numbers: they are very close. 
Cheap oil does indeed result in more carbon in the atmosphere. We have already burned all cheap oil and eaten all cheap food. Expensive oil will stay in the ground just like expensive gold stays in the ground at this very moment. 
All that is left is expensive oil that the super rich can't eat because it has to be transformed to food. Just my hasty 2 cents.


----------



## Sad Al

"The crux of the problem is that there are too many people. I expect that a new virus will make a correction before 2050. I don't think the world will reach 9 billion by 2050. We are set up for a deadly new virus to have maximum effect. With modern air travel it could make its way around the world in days."
– William Hay, Prof of Geology, Emeritus, in his long and well researched book that was published a few years ago.


----------



## philoctetes

Reuters: Trump inadequate policy brings back bear market

Fem-lib blue checks on twitter: This is how the Handmaid's Tale started

Two normal people on a local trail yesterday: Can you believe this coronavirus reaction - what's the big deal?

Me: trying to be patient with all this


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> As has been already stated many times by health officials, using common sense and taking precautions to avoid infection is the logical thing to do. Freaking out and raiding every store for toilet paper proves that people are in a panic. As far as the civil liberties issue,* I have no doubt that many would trade freedom for security*.


As they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. The problem isn't with the initial restrictions on liberty - the problem is the ratchet effect. Once it takes power, government is loathe to relinquish it. As Ronald Reagan said, there is nothing quite so permanent as a temporary government agency.

That is why so many people who want to assume more power for the government are always trying to turn every crisis into the "moral equivalent of war," because they know it is so much easier to convince people to relinquish liberties if they can scare them first.

I'm not saying there is nothing to fear from COVID-19 - but there are also lots of people out there salivating over the political opportunities this affords them, and I'm talking on both sides of the aisle, whether it is using it as a cudgel against Trump, or Trump getting a really good justification now to shut down borders, both sides are using this for all it is worth.


----------



## philoctetes

Prevention is key. I won't let you in my house if you're sick, nor should one go tow work if sick, and I think this is the essence of closing borders and social distancing. Without prevention we more likely wind up more like one of the seriously afflicted countries. And as always we need to take care of those "at home" first. As someone close to the ports of arrival, I'm relieved that CA seems to have a slow spread and has no feud with DC policy. 

OTOH, the media whips up hysteria like they want us to panic over it all. To paraphrase one commentator last night "every time a public figure goes into quarantine it's treated like a 737 crash"... but that doesn't mean I want to mingle in crowds for example just to be defiant or prove anything... not gonna abandon common health sense just because Trump advises me to follow it... ha


----------



## philoctetes

DrMike said:


> I'm not saying there is nothing to fear from COVID-19 - but there are also lots of people out there salivating over the political opportunities this affords them, and I'm talking on both sides of the aisle, whether it is using it as a cudgel against Trump, or Trump getting a really good justification now to shut down borders, both sides are using this for all it is worth.


My focus on the market is very much about the financial advantages that will be taken... where it's most visible... meanwhile there will be plenty of sneaky schemes happening at all levels of commerce and society... hidden premiums to cover the fear of the ultimate coronavirus catastrophe...


----------



## starthrower

I know one thing. I'm not spending my spring and summer locked indoors. Taking a walk around the neighborhood is not going to spread or make anyone susceptible to infection. The streets are empty anyway. Kids haven't played outdoors in years.


----------



## philoctetes

starthrower said:


> I know one thing. I'm not spending my spring and summer locked indoors. Taking a walk around the neighborhood is not going to spread or make anyone susceptible to infection. The streets are empty anyway. Kids haven't played outdoors in years.


I don't think anybody is being told to stay indoors. That would be especially bad advice where I live. But large dense outdoor gathering would be a different consideration... even skeptics are avoiding mass transit...


----------



## Open Book

I'm glad big events are being canceled. But there is only so far containment can go.

Many, many people have jobs dealing face to face with other people. If you're a supermarket cashier you might deal with hundreds of strangers a day who live in widely scattered areas. If you contract the virus from one of them there is no way to trace it. So I hope no one is still feeling assured that we can trace every new occurrence. 

Employers only give so much free sick time off (sometimes none), so people have long felt pressured to work when sick, it's become accepted. Now it's counterproductive to fighting the virus. Some people may not want to sacrifice part of their salaries if their employer won't sacrifice more sick time.


----------



## philoctetes

Well, when you have employees like Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz being intentionally careless on video, then being tested positive, you could be facing a lawsuit... 

Today at a conference, Dr Fauci is quite PO'd about inadequate testing and knuckleheads like Mitchell...

Correction, apparently it was Rudy Gobert of the Jazz who was careless, this is a developing story... it only takes 5 days in the NBA schedule for all teams to have communicable links to each other... the Big 10 has cancelled its tournament, and I'm guessing the only motivation left to play games is "strictly commercial"...


----------



## starthrower

The virus has motivated the NYC subway system to start cleaning the subway cars. So that's a good thing. They didn't look too cleanly when I last rode the subway in Oct 2018.


----------



## philoctetes

Seriously, I mused about this happening last night, and here it is

'US Army Behind Covid-19 In Wuhan': China's Foreign Ministry Levels Bombastic Charge

Trudeau and wife are under Q after returning from London... which is exempt from the US travel ban...

Some dude from Brazil was at Maralago and is now positive...


----------



## SixFootScowl

Open Book said:


> I'm glad big events are being canceled. But there is only so far containment can go.


All good but my neighbor is an event planner, so I wonder how it will impact his employment.


----------



## philoctetes

starthrower said:


> The virus has motivated the NYC subway system to start cleaning the subway cars. So that's a good thing. They didn't look too cleanly when I last rode the subway in Oct 2018.


I have been wondering what chemicals are being used for cleaning streets and public facilities.. the usual ammonia or something more powerful...


----------



## DaveM

Melania Trump is telling people that social distancing is important and that she’s been practicing it in her marriage for years.


----------



## philoctetes

DaveM said:


> Melania Trump is telling people that social distancing is important and that she's been practicing it in her marriage for years.


Now, why do you state that as a fact? :lol: Deep thinking!


----------



## Kieran

Huge cull of major tennis events, basically the next event is Rome, just before the French Open, but neither of these events - or Wimbledon - are safe.

https://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2020/03/tennis-coronavirus-covid19-cancellations-atp-wta-tour/87946/

EDITL for context, the Italian Open in Rome is due to start on 10 May, and the French Open to start on 24 May...


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Now, why do you state that as a fact? :lol: Deep thinking!


Are you having trouble distinguishing a joke from statements of fact?


----------



## philoctetes

DaveM said:


> Are you having trouble distinguishing a joke from statements of fact?


1) you have a short memory of yourself asking me the same question about opinion
2) I'm making a joke as welll if you can't see that
3) We''ll just call it even and keep it that way
4) Block me if you don't like what I say


----------



## philoctetes

Back to reality, this stuff that worries me near as much as CV itself...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/30y-sale-saved-feds-bazooka-record-tail-hints-near-auction-failure

This is the kind of news I try to follow... and I'm not sure this Fed action isn't just throwing gasoline on the fire... if we keep supplying money people HAVE to invest it - seems like a desperate strategy...

So it's clear by now that Trump doesn't want to go full welfare as a response yet, he wants us to believe that he rebuilt the economy strong enough to withstand the pressure with yet more Fed intervention of basically the same kind that Obama took advantage of. This seems to be the main point of controversy.

The notorious Jim Cramer, who pumped up bond prices on CNBC up to the very week Lehmann collapsed, is now saying "this is different", calling for more extreme action with other agencies... IRS etc..


----------



## haydnguy

Live updates: Brazilian official who met Trump and Pence at Mar-a-Lago tests positive for coronavirus

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/brazilian-official-who-met-trump-on-saturday-at-mar-a-lago-tests-positive/ar-BB114H0o?ocid=msedgntp


----------



## Jacck

NAC, spirulina, other nutraceuticals may play role on Coronavirus treatment
https://scienceblog.com/514404/nac-...icals-may-play-role-on-coronavirus-treatment/

I am a fan of NAC. It has benefits far beyond just mucus dissolution. It is always a good idea to take it in any viral infection.


----------



## starthrower

haydnguy said:


> Live updates: Brazilian official who met Trump and Pence at Mar-a-Lago tests positive for coronavirus
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/brazilian-official-who-met-trump-on-saturday-at-mar-a-lago-tests-positive/ar-BB114H0o?ocid=msedgntp


This is our chance to put the Donald in lock down! But seriously, loads of event gatherings are getting cancelled which is tough for the wallets but will hopefully contain the spread.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> This is our chance to put the Donald in lock down! But seriously, loads of event gatherings are getting cancelled which is tough for the wallets but will hopefully contain the spread.


Speaking of which, Biden and Bernie are up in the target demographic for most vulnerable, and they were going to hold a debate this Sunday. Maybe they should just stay home for the rest of the election. Bernie has already had a heart attack and lord knows it was bad enough when Biden's eye exploded on TV.


----------



## KenOC

We don't have much coronavirus down here yet, but CDS (Coronavirus Derangement Syndrome) is in full swing. My wife just went out to do a bit of casual panic buying but was evidently slower than some others. She e-mailed this pic (just now) from the big box store she's shopping at.
​


----------



## haydnguy

starthrower said:


> This is our chance to put the Donald in lock down! But seriously, loads of event gatherings are getting cancelled which is tough for the wallets but will hopefully contain the spread.


I just saw where Lindsey Graham is going into self-imposed isolation until his test results come back. He was at Mar-a-Lago.


----------



## KenOC

Disneyland is closing in Anaheim, CA. That's just a few miles north of me.


----------



## eljr

well 

i am here to announce

nyc is shut down


----------



## SixFootScowl




----------



## Huilunsoittaja

No panic here! that yellow sign warns customers to 2 toilet paper items per person, but that's it. That's normal stock levels, and there's ton of water too.


----------



## Rogerx

eljr said:


> well
> 
> i am here to announce
> 
> nyc is shut down


As is my village in the south, no sports , anything with big crowds are forbidden, and Belgium are closing schools, cafe ,movie theater etc


----------



## pianozach

AND THE SHOE DROPPED. 

No I don’t have the Coronavirus, nor are either of us feeling sick.

But that doesn’t mean that we HAVEN’T been affected by the Coronavirus.

Because of the California Governor’s Directive, our venue has cancelled all performances of all productions through March 30, including our production of THE GRAND DUKE. Well, at least we got in 3 performances.

This closure was preceded by the announcements from several other local theater venues to cancel performances.

AND THEN THE OTHER SHOE DROPPED. 

The School District where I accompany choirs just cancelled all schools for March16-20 because the County Public Health agency declared a public health emergency.

I was half expecting this as several private schools and many nearby colleges are already transitioning to online education and closing their campuses.

But the closure is for only a week. 

So far. They’ve said that they will reassess tomorrow Friday by 2pm.

A quick look at all the local 'events' that are canceling only tells a partial story; for larger regional events such as festivals, concerts, theater, parades, and sports venues, there are hundreds, maybe thousands, that are adversely affected . . . people that work concession stands, stage hands, janitors, maintenance workers, box office staff, . . . . and it ripples out from there . . . transportation workers, restaurant staff, parking lot attendants, hotels.

This morning the High School had to cancel their 2-night choir concert event that was to open tonight . . . and while it's mostly volunteer staff, I know of one accompanist that won't be getting paid. No, not me - Our OTHER accompanist was booked for THESE concerts because I had a prior commitment ("The Grand Duke").


----------



## Art Rock

My wife and I decided yesterday evening not to open our gallery the coming weeks. Better safe than sorry - less contact with other people is better. Fortunately, we do not rely on it for our income.


----------



## philoctetes

Went to Costco yesterday... no paper tissue products at all... doesn't worry me I just wonder what people plan to wipe if they have no food...

They call it a pandemic which is fine but I'm calling it hysteria on the media front... the lack of testing means we cant yet estimate how low the death rate is... but my part of the world still looks pretty healthy...

I have few affected investments. but this morning I took a peek and saw that my munis had all dropped in price, which is a strong indicator of panic.

As the last US recession threatened, creating similar financial panic, both parties worked together to come up with a plan. That's not happening this time.


----------



## SixFootScowl

philoctetes said:


> Went to Costco yesterday... no paper tissue products at all...


As long as I can hold it until I get to the office, I am good. :lol:


----------



## DaveM

People are sorry they cancelled newspaper delivery.


----------



## philoctetes

SixFootScowl said:


> As long as I can hold it until I get to the office, I am good. :lol:


Monitor the supply room just in case... I'd rather be caught at home with no TP than at the office, but that's just me...


----------



## senza sordino

The provincial government yesterday, and the federal government today, have announced travel advisories. If anyone leaves the country and then returns, then they are asked to self quarantine for fourteen days. 

Tomorrow is the start of our two week spring break, and many teachers had planned international trips. (This international travel advisory also includes the USA, so we can't cross the border for cheap groceries and cheap gasoline anymore). Today, our employer the school board, announced that if we travel, we cannot access our sick days for self quarantine upon our return. We can't use sick days when we return because they advised us not to go in the first place. 

One of my colleagues still plans on travelling internationally. And she is planning to be away for two weeks after spring break. She's already called for a substitute teacher. I'm not sure she understands what our employer says. Also, her travel insurance is null and void if she were to get sick. This is me being a tattletale. Perhaps she won't go. I'll find out in two weeks. 

I will be staying at home, going no where, listening to music and playing music, alone.


----------



## Jacck

our government locked down the whole country, ie no Czechs are allowed to leave and no foreigners allowed entry, all flights and international trains are stopped. They will also be closing large shopping centers and leave just food stores open. And they are trying to stenghten the healthcare system as much as possible before the situation becomes as bad as in Italy or Spain, recruiting 5th and 6th year medical students to help. The outbreak will likely last 2-3 months
Meanwhile, in Italy, this "just a common flu" is killing 250 people daily.


----------



## KenOC

Things are going badly in Italy. The latest reporting day: "2,547 new cases and 250 new deaths in Italy. Highest number of deaths per day in the world ever (including China at its peak) has been reported in Italy in each of the last four days."


----------



## Jacck

But I still believe that the mortality is 1% or less. In the Diamond Princess cruise ship, well studied with tests, of 700 infected 7 deaths. 1%, despite being passengers of advanced average age. So to get an estimate of infected people in a given country, multiply the number of deaths by 100 and add some more. So for example in Italy, they likely have 1266*100 = ca 130,000 infected. But there are still unresolved cases, so the number is likely higher, possibly 200,000 or even more.

also, the death statistics from Italy
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETAQkxAWkAAFO0b?format=jpg&name=900x900


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

The hysteria is serious . The human mind has been hacked . It's global . Who is
the most global identity ? the United Nations , for better or worse . WHO ?


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> our government locked down the whole country, ie no Czechs are allowed to leave and no foreigners allowed entry, all flights and international trains are stopped. They will also be closing large shopping centers and leave just food stores open. And they are trying to stenghten the healthcare system as much as possible before the situation becomes as bad as in Italy or Spain, recruiting 5th and 6th year medical students to help. The outbreak will likely last 2-3 months
> Meanwhile, in Italy, this "just a common flu" is killing 250 people daily.


Similar precautions are taken in my country (Denmark). I hope it isn't too late.


----------



## SixFootScowl

philoctetes said:


> Monitor the supply room just in case... I'd rather be caught at home with no TP than at the office, but that's just me...


We run out regularly in some stalls. I once had the guy in the next stall shove his hand under the divider and ask for a wad of paper. Then I got stuck and had to do the same thing! You learn to check first.


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> But I still believe that the mortality is 1% or less. In the Diamond Princess cruise ship, well studied with tests, of 700 infected 7 deaths. 1%, despite being passengers of advanced average age. So to get an estimate of infected people in a given country, multiply the number of deaths by 100 and add some more. So for example in Italy, they likely have 1266*100 = ca 130,000 infected. But there are still unresolved cases, so the number is likely higher, possibly 200,000 or even more.
> 
> also, the death statistics from Italy
> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETAQkxAWkAAFO0b?format=jpg&name=900x900


Yes, you are probably right, but the mortality among risk groups is certainly higher. And if you belong to a risk group you do not find consolation in the average mortality.i


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

People have weird anxieties about toiletries . It's Mother's fault . But she has passed . Just for now , mine has become a great warrior in my dreams . It's taken some time . People , with some scissors , make snowflakes of your toilet paper .


----------



## science

Jacck said:


> I would like to see some statistics regarding smoking status.





philoctetes said:


> I doubt that China or S Korea would cooperate much with that


I'm sure the information is available in Korean. How badly do you guys want to know this?


----------



## philoctetes

science said:


> I'm sure the information is available in Korean. How badly do you guys want to know this?


Personally I think it would confirm what is already expected, and there's probably too much noise in these early stats to be very accurate... I'm not sure I'm going to trust stats coming from all US communities either... suddenly Ohio is claiming 100,000 cases out of the blue, without testing... but I expect certain areas of the US, with low incomes, more smokers, and colder weather than the West Coast, might be especially vulnerable...

Many have argued that flu does not need cold weather to be active but I say warmer weather allows healthy people to get away from infected people more easily... open windows, fresh air and all that


----------



## AeolianStrains

philoctetes said:


> Personally I think it would confirm what is already expected, and there's probably too much noise in these early stats to be very accurate... I'm not sure I'm going to trust stats coming from all US communities either... suddenly Ohio is claiming 100,000 cases out of the blue, without testing... but I expect certain areas of the US, with low incomes, more smokers, and colder weather than the West Coast, might be especially vulnerable...
> 
> Many have argued that flu does not need cold weather to be active but I say warmer weather allows healthy people to get away from infected people more easily... open windows, fresh air and all that


Definitely read up on the Spanish flu. Yeah, it was temporarily gone in the summer, but it did its most damage in the early fall after everyone thought it went away.


----------



## Metalkitsune

What is with people hoarding toilet paper at costco?

Was at a costco in town earlier and was completely sold out.

explosive diarrhea isn't a symptom of corona, but is a symptom of E coli


----------



## Jacck

AeolianStrains said:


> Definitely read up on the Spanish flu. Yeah, it was temporarily gone in the summer, but it did its most damage in the early fall after everyone thought it went away.


maybe the best thing to do would be to isolate the risk populations and let the younger ones catch the coronavirus. Once a large part of the population becomes immunized, the virus will stop spreading. So people should not give their kids to their grandparents, and limit their visits. The older people should stay mostly at home, someone else should do the shopping for them and leave the food in front of the door. If the population does not become immunized, it is quite possible that the virus will come back.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Personally I think it would confirm what is already expected, and there's probably too much noise in these early stats to be very accurate... I'm not sure I'm going to trust stats coming from all US communities either... suddenly Ohio is claiming 100,000 cases out of the blue, without testing... but I expect certain areas of the US, with low incomes, more smokers, and colder weather than the West Coast, might be especially vulnerable...
> 
> Many have argued that flu does not need cold weather to be active but I say warmer weather allows healthy people to get away from infected people more easily... open windows, fresh air and all that


It is not exactly clear what many infections dimish with warm weather, but one possible answer is vitamin D. Most flu epidemics come late winter and early spring, when people are most deficient in vitamin D.


----------



## mrdoc

Metalkitsune said:


> What is with people hoarding toilet paper at costco?
> 
> Was at a costco in town earlier and was completely sold out.
> 
> explosive diarrhea isn't a symptom of corona, but is a symptom of E coli


If you ran out of toilet paper what would you use?? I do remember in WW2 news paper was cut into squares about 10 inches and threaded onto a string and hung on the back of the toilet door, trouble was the printers ink............


----------



## bharbeke

Jacck said:


> maybe the best thing to do would be to isolate the risk populations and let the younger ones catch the coronavirus. Once a large part of the population becomes immunized, the virus will stop spreading. So people should not give their kids to their grandparents, and limit their visits. The older people should stay mostly at home, someone else should do the shopping for them and leave the food in front of the door. If the population does not become immunized, it is quite possible that the virus will come back.


In this case, what happens when the immunized, low-risk population meets back up with the high-risk population? Wouldn't those who had it but recovered still be able to pass on the virus for a time?


----------



## elgar's ghost

mrdoc said:


> _If you ran out of toilet paper what would you use?? _ I do remember in WW2 news paper was cut into squares about 10 inches and threaded onto a string and hung on the back of the toilet door, trouble was the printers ink............


A sponge on a stick like in Roman times, although making sure it was clean enough for the next time probably wouldn't be all that pleasant.


----------



## starthrower

It's not contagious after a couple of weeks. I don't see how recovered patients would be a danger to others. The the most critical time is right after infection before symptoms arise. People are still feeling good so they're out and about spreading the infection to others.


----------



## erki

> If you ran out of toilet paper what would you use??


You can wash your bottom without using paper at all. To think that how much damage all bottom wipers cause to the nature every day. So this virus may change some of the most silly behaviour of "civilised" world.


----------



## Merl

Just had a convo with our friend in Cadiz, Spain. She sent us some pics of the local supermarket. Mass panic buying. How long before the civil unrest and looting starts?


----------



## Guest

Come in... Come in... [radio cackle]
Strasbourg calling! The zombies are on the streets! Schools and universities are closed! All musicological discourse cancelled... [radio cackle]
Help! No more toilet paper! [radio cackle...]


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> You can wash your bottom without using paper at all. To think that how much damage all bottom wipers cause to the nature every day. So this virus may change some of the most silly behaviour of "civilised" world.


yes, when I travelled across Asia (for some 7 months), they have everywhere these squat toilets with some hose nearby. So you just use your hand and the hose to clean yourself. No need for toilet paper. I used toilet paper for some 2 months and after that I simply got used to their way. That is why giving someone the left hand is considered impolite. Right hand is for food, left hand is for ... Really, toilet paper is the least important thing.


----------



## Art Rock




----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> yes, when I travelled across Asia (for some 7 months), they have everywhere these squat toilets with some hose nearby. So you just use your hand and the hose to clean yourself. No need for toilet paper. I used toilet paper for some 2 months and after that I simply got used to their way. That is why giving someone the left hand is considered impolite. Right hand is for food, left hand is for ... Really, toilet paper is the least important thing.


Me, too. I spent several months on the Indian subcontinent and can confirm that toilet paper over there is a "Western construct". 
Frankly, if we run out of toilet paper just pop off the toilet and wash your bum and other parts with pH-neutral soap and get on with our meaningless lives.


----------



## SixFootScowl

mrdoc said:


> If you ran out of toilet paper what would you use?? I do remember in WW2 news paper was cut into squares about 10 inches and threaded onto a string and hung on the back of the toilet door, trouble was the printers ink............


*Toilet Paper Alternatives Article*, or do as this guy does (click to start video):

[video=facebook_share;2523055624618251]https://www.facebook.com/neal.borntrager/videos/2523055624618251/[/video]


----------



## SixFootScowl

erki said:


> You can wash your bottom without using paper at all. To think that how much damage all bottom wipers cause to the nature every day. So this virus may change some of the most silly behaviour of "civilised" world.


Somehow my dog goes and does not need to wipe. Everything is left very clean.


----------



## premont

starthrower said:


> It's not contagious after a couple of weeks.


I think this is something we conclude indirectly by comparisons with the behavior of other corona-vira, but to my knowledge we do not yet know if this is also true of the new coronavirus. Correct me if I am wrong.


----------



## starthrower

SixFootScowl said:


> Somehow my dog goes and does not need to wipe. Everything is left very clean.


If you have that much flexibility, go for it. It's getting pretty crazy in my area, so I hope I can find some food at the stores in the coming weeks. I guess it's too much to expect people to behave rationally when the media is scaring the sh#t out of the nation. If people had just stuck to their normal shopping habits, things would be okay. We don't even have one official case of infection in my county and people are in a panic.


----------



## senza sordino

Why do the number of flu patients decrease during the summer? I have heard that UV light can destroy viruses. On skin, not inside a body.

As mentioned here before, I get my groceries delivered, and have done for years. I don't own a car. But on Thursday their website crashed from volume. There is a lot of panic out there.

I'm worried but I'm trying not to panic. I got the swine flu back in September / October 2009. It wiped me out. I was off work for about ten days. And I returned to work but didn't feel "normal" for at least a month after. I don't want to go through that again. And now I'm ten years older.


----------



## CnC Bartok

I've been using my share certificates as toilet paper.


----------



## starthrower

senza sordino said:


> I'm worried but I'm trying not to panic. I got the swine flu back in September / October 2009. It wiped me out. I was off work for about ten days. And I returned to work but didn't feel "normal" for at least a month after. I don't want to go through that again. And now I'm ten years older.


I don't want to get this for the same reason. I got the flu five years ago. I was in bed for a week. I went back to work the following week but didn't feel back to full strength for about five weeks.


----------



## Dorsetmike

Seems everybody's panic buying


----------



## pianozach

mrdoc said:


> If you ran out of toilet paper what would you use?? I do remember in WW2 news paper was cut into squares about 10 inches and threaded onto a string and hung on the back of the toilet door, trouble was the printers ink............


*Australia Newspaper Prints Extra Blank Pages To Be Used As Toilet Paper
*
NT News, a paper based in Darwin in the Northern Territory, has begun printing blank pages at the end of its daily paper in order for its readers to use as toilet paper.

https://kluv.radio.com/blogs/miles-...prints-blank-pages-to-be-used-as-toilet-paper

.



starthrower said:


> It's not contagious after a couple of weeks. I don't see how recovered patients would be a danger to others. The the most critical time is right after infection before symptoms arise. People are still feeling good so they're out and about spreading the infection to others.


And yet our President is running around shaking hands and touching common surfaces even AFTER several people he's been in contact (including heads of state) with have tested positive.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

The godly are protected even from poisoness serpents .


----------



## Sad Al

starthrower said:


> I don't want to get this for the same reason. I got the flu five years ago. I was in bed for a week. I went back to work the following week but didn't feel back to full strength for about five weeks.


Work and work and work. What _is_ work? I've lived on benefits and just boozed and listened to Bach since the early days of boy Bush. Is Bush still President? Who's Obama? Bach vs. Bush vs. Booze? I choose number one and three.


----------



## Jacck

some funny masks
https://www.boredstupid.net/picture...o-try-to-protect-themselves-from-coronavirus/


----------



## SixFootScowl

Jacck said:


> some funny masks
> https://www.boredstupid.net/picture...o-try-to-protect-themselves-from-coronavirus/


Oh good. I am glad my wife picked up a whole bag of oranges the other day.


----------



## Sad Al

Both of my two alive aunts have it.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Trader Joes about 5 pm today. They had a lot of stuff still, and I managed to check out at $95 with some extras just in case, but definitely there were a lot of holes in shelves. No hot dogs at all. These frozen aisles were about the worst part of the store, but I did manage to get 4 frozen spinach lasagne packs and there were still a half dozen or so left. Only one pack of peanut butter filled pretzels left (I could live on those things). Lot of holes in the chips aisle. I'd say most shelving was about 50% depleted. They were out of bags so my stuff was packed in a huge cardboard carton.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Scott 1000 Toilet Paper, 30 Rolls for $582.99 + shipping!
www.amazon.com/dp/B07LCMBS6F/


----------



## AeolianStrains

SixFootScowl said:


> Scott 1000 Toilet Paper, 30 Rolls for $582.99 + shipping!
> www.amazon.com/dp/B07LCMBS6F/


Amazon will remove sellers who engage in price gouging. Everyone has to report them, though.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Here is a longer term solution to the toilet paper crisis:

https://getaclearrear.com/


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

In the woods we refer to 'sister flowers' , that which they leave hither thither when pissing .


----------



## Bwv 1080

This is why most every dangerous new virus has originated in China:



> Nearly 20,000 wildlife farms raising species including peacocks, civet cats, porcupines, ostriches, wild geese and boar have been shut down across China in the wake of the coronavirus, in a move that has exposed the hitherto unknown size of the industry.
> ...
> China's leadership has pushed the idea that "wildlife domestication" should be a key part of rural development, eco-tourism and poverty alleviation. A 2017 report by the Chinese Academy of Engineering on the development of the wildlife farming industry valued the wildlife-farming industry those operations at 520bn yuan, or £57bn.


https://www.theguardian.com/environ...le-of-chinas-secretive-wildlife-farm-industry


----------



## mrdoc

Tikoo Tuba said:


> In the woods we refer to 'sister flowers' , that which they leave hither thither when pissing .


She sits among the cabbages and peas.


----------



## TxllxT

Germany and the US are clashing over the vaccin against Corona https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html According to the German newspaper it's about big money.


----------



## aleazk

TalkingHead said:


> Me, too. I spent several months on the Indian subcontinent and can confirm that toilet paper over there is a "Western construct".
> Frankly, if we run out of toilet paper just pop off the toilet and wash your bum and other parts with pH-neutral soap and get on with our meaningless lives.


In latin countries (both in europe and south america) we have the (in-)famous "bidets". I'm sure you saw one of those


----------



## starthrower

I'm not sure about the accuracy of this site? And of course we have to consider the untested millions, but I check the stats daily and the total number of reported cases has doubled over the past week.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


----------



## premont

Luchesi said:


> I would think that the only fatality rate that teaches us about this virus would be the fatality rate of strong and healthy individuals in the prime of their life. If we could compare that rate with the same rate from SARS we would have an insight to help us.


This presupposes, that SARS CoV 1 and SARS CoV 2 have identical infective patterns. I do not know if this is the case. But what we need to know is the age-specific mortality rate. In my country e.g. the known infected people are until now mostly young healthy people with few complications, so our average mortality rate is useless.


----------



## premont

starthrower said:


> I'm not sure about the accuracy of this site? And of course we have to consider the untested millions, but I check the stats daily and the total number of reported cases has doubled over the past week.
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


This page records what we know at an international level. But a major weakness of the overall assessment is - of course, that the unknown (clinically silent cases) for good reasons are missing, and they may be the most important factors to assess and control the virus spread..


----------



## CnC Bartok

The current UK Government policy explained: for "crew" please read "policy involving isolation and attempt to prevent the spread of the virus"


----------



## Luchesi

starthrower said:


> I'm not sure about the accuracy of this site? And of course we have to consider the untested millions, but I check the stats daily and the total number of reported cases has doubled over the past week.
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


This link was posted a while back, but for those who missed it. It's a world map.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The animations in this video are entertaining, but it does give you some visual insights into a person's body who's been infected.


----------



## Luchesi

premont said:


> This presupposes, that SARS CoV 1 and SARS CoV 2 have identical infective patterns. I do not know if this is the case. But what we need to know is the age-specific mortality rate. In my country e.g. the known infected people are until now mostly young healthy people with few complications, so our average mortality rate is useless.


Yes thanks.

I keep thinking that if this was like Ebola we would be in much deeper trouble. ...Hopefully that's not in our future.


----------



## DaveM

^^^ As of Dec 2019 there is an approved Ebola vaccine, Ervebo.


----------



## pianozach

In the history of pandemics, this Covid-19 coronavirus is unique, if perhaps only in the response and reactions.

Plagues have . . . ahem . . . _plagued_ mankind for centuries.

*Break it down*:

*Plague of Athens*. 430-426 BC. Typhoid Fever. Killed a quarter of the Athenian troops, and a quarter of the population over four years. The sheer virulence of the disease prevented its wider spread; it killed off its hosts at a rate faster than they could spread it.

*Antonine Plague*. 165-180. Probably smallpox or measles.

The *Justinian Plague*, around 541 AD. The victims demonstrated many of the classic symptoms of bubonic plague, including sudden fever and swollen lymph nodes. It is believed to have killed at least 25 million people.

The *Black Death* (aka the Pestilence, *Great Bubonic Plague*, the Great Plague, *The Plague*, the Great Mortality or Black Plague), 1347-1353. One of the most devastating pandemics in human history, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 75 to 200 million people. Symptoms included the appearance of buboes in the groin, the neck and armpits, which oozed pus and bled when opened, chills, weakness, abdominal pain, diarrhea, acute fever and vomiting of blood, bleeding from the mouth, nose or ******, , shock, breathing difficulties, gangrene (Blackening and death of tissue in your extremities, most commonly fingers, toes and nose). Cause: bacterial infection (Yersinia pestis), spread by bites from fleas that have fed on infected rodents or by humans handling infected animals. On the upside, lower class folks that survived actually benefitted economically due to the decreased work force.

The *Italian Plague* of 1629-31. Troops from the Thirty Years' War carried the Bubonic Plague into the Italian city of Mantua. Over the next two years, the plague snaked its way across Italy.

The *Great Plague of London*. Plague laid siege to the city of London several times during the 16th and 17th centuries, most famously between 1665 and 1666. The wealthy, including King Charles II, fled to the countryside, leaving the poor as the plague's main victims. As the sickness spread, London's authorities tried to contain the infected by quarantining them in their homes, which were marked with a red cross. Somewhere between 75,000 and 100,000 people eventually died.

The *Great Plague of Marseille*. 1720-1722. Roughly 100,000 people died.

The *"Third Pandemic"* of the Bubonic Plague erupted in 1855 in the Chinese province of Yunnan

*Yellow Fever*. Late 1800s. 100-150K die. Cause: Virus spread by mosquitos.

*Smallpox*. 1800s Kills 90% of Native Americans. Killed 400K people in Europe annually. Killed around 50% of Indigenous Australians in the early years of British colonization.

*The "Russian" Flu*. 1889-1919. 1 million. Probably originated in China.

*"Spanish" Flu* (despite the name, it's believed that it also started in China). 1918-1919. 40-50 million die. Cause: H1N1 virus spread by pigs

*Asian Flu*. 1957-1958. 1.1 million.

*"Hong Kong" Flu*. 1968-1970. 1 million.

*HIV/AIDS*. 1981-present. Death Toll: 25-36 million

*SARS*. 2002-2003. 770. A Coronavirus spread by bats and civets.

*Swine Flu*. 2009-2010. 200K

*Ebola*. 2014-2016. 11.3K

*MERS*. 2015-present. 850. A coronavirus spread by bats and camels.

*Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)*. 4.7K. 2019-present. The "19" is a reference to the year 2019. Covid-19 is a new strain of coronavirus. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from *the common cold* to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (*MERS*-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (*SARS*-CoV). *The COVID-19 strain of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causes Coronavirus disease 2019, and is a variant of SARS*.

*Cholera*. Since it became widespread in the 19th century, cholera has killed tens of millions of people

*Tuberculosis*. Annually, 8 million people become ill with tuberculosis, and 2 million people die from the disease worldwide. In the 1800s, tuberculosis killed an estimated one-quarter of the adult population of Europe; by 1918, one in six deaths in France were still caused by tuberculosis. During the 1900s, tuberculosis killed approximately 100 million people.



In *2016*, the *Commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future* estimated that pandemic disease events would cost the global *economy* over $6 trillion in the 21st century-over *$60 billion per year*. The same report also recommended spending $4.5 billion annually on global prevention and response capabilities to reduce the threat posed by pandemic events.

In *2018 the Trump administration* began focusing on *eliminating funding* to Obama-era disease anti-pandemic security programs.

In March of 2018, Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer, whose job it was to lead the U.S. response in the event of a pandemic, abruptly left the administration and his *global health security team was disbanded*.

That same year, the *Centers for Disease Control and Prevention* (CDC) was forced to slash its efforts to prevent global disease outbreak by 80% as its funding for the program began to run out.

Also cut was the Complex Crises Fund, a $30 million emergency response pool that was at the secretary of state's disposal to deploy disease experts and others in the event of a crisis. (The fund was created by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.)

Overall in 2018, Trump called for $15 billion in reduced health spending that had previously been approved: Agencies affected included the global disease-fighting budgets of the *CDC*, National Security Council (*NSC*), Department of Homeland Security (*DHS*), and Health and Human Services (*HHS*)


----------



## Barbebleu

I’m not sure my like response is an appropriate one but the above post is highly informative.


----------



## Jacck

^^^ thanks for the review, but in med school I had to learn so much more about all those and about so many more bacteria, viruses and parasites. One of our teachers was an older professor with walking disability. It turned out he was one of the last victims of polio before it was eradicated by vaccinations. That was a terrible disease, leaving so many people disabled. And I remember vividly that the professors also warned us, that a pandemic will come, it is only a question of when. Now it is here. We can be thankful that it is so relatively mild, because the world is woefully unprepared. The tragedy is that humanity needs to constantly learn its lessons again and again. They make a terrible experience such as a world war or a pandemic, but as soon as the generations change and those with the experiences die, all the experiences must be repeated. Generations who remembered fascism are dying out, and we have neofascists all over the world etc.

Concerning the Black Death, it is usually not appreciated how much this pandemic shaped European culture. The whole baroque and its preoccupation with death was very much a product of this epidemic. The Dance of Death is pretty famous




I have not doubt that the current pandemic is a black swan event that is going to change the world, though not as profoundly as the Black Death.


----------



## starthrower

I read about the Black Death in Barbara Tuchman's classic, A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century. What a book!


----------



## Jacck

Europeans Erect Borders Against Coronavirus, but the Enemy Is Already Within
I wonder why this author is writing about Europe when he has no understanding. Obviously, the reason behind closing of the borders is to limit the movement of people. And it is not just closing of the borders, our government is just now debating a complete quarantine, ie prohibition of movement of people in the outside (just like in Italy). We will be allowed to travel just to work and then home and must stay home. Some countries still obviously take this very lightly. When it was in China, they did not believe it will come to Europe, and when it is in Italy, they do not believe that the situation could get so bad in their own country.


----------



## science

Meanwhile, in Trump Country - 

My dad is 69 years old, with a rare lung disease, which he won't concede may be related to living near and working in coal-fired power plants for several decades. He doesn't believe in climate change or evolution. 

I called my parents this morning to try to talk them out of going to church today. No dice. 

We'll see, folks. Maybe we'll be lucky.


----------



## philoctetes

Not to start a feud, but how do we resolve the conflicting sentiments in the two posts above ^^^ 

how do we balance fear of the epidemic with fear of being over-controlled? Nobody wants to be tested or quarantined unless they have symptoms...


----------



## science

philoctetes said:


> Not to start a feud, but how do we resolve the conflicting sentiments in the two posts above ^^^
> 
> how do we balance fear of the epidemic with fear of being over-controlled? Nobody wants to be tested or quarantined unless they have symptoms...


I don't think it's a question of balance at all. All we need are educated populations, trustworthy institutions, and healthcare that is free (or universally affordable) at the point of service - none of which the US has enough of. Taiwan has supposedly done an even better job of handing this than South Korea has, but I'm in South Korea so I've only what has happened here, but they've made it look easy.

Also, I think it's basically too late in the US. West Virginia, the last state with zero cases supposedly, had tested 12 people as of this morning. The US as a whole only passed 10k tests a couple days ago. (South Korea tests over 10k every day; on some days they nearly reached 20k.) At this point, we just have to ride this out.

I honestly think the people going to church and going out to eat may not be wrong. Maybe it's already everywhere. Maybe no one who's going to survive at this point can be put in any more danger. We don't know that, so it'd be irresponsible to act on it, but it may be so anyway.

(The mischief-maker in me wants to go to one of these churches, sit in the back, and cough a few times during a prayer just to see how the people react. Fortunately for the world, all the churches in South Korea are closed.)


----------



## philoctetes

That wasn't really an answer to my question.


----------



## science

philoctetes said:


> That wasn't really an answer to my question.


I'm sorry, I must've misunderstood. I intended to answer it.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Not to start a feud, but how do we resolve the conflicting sentiments in the two posts above ^^^
> 
> how do we balance fear of the epidemic with fear of being over-controlled? Nobody wants to be tested or quarantined unless they have symptoms...


every society must have rules (laws). Laws can be good or bad. I see nothing wrong with temporary restricting the movement of people to stop the spread of a disease, just as I see nothing wrong with mandatory vaccinations of children (if the parents refuse to let their children vaccinated, they will face harsh penalties or the children will be taken away from them).


----------



## science

Laws and enforcement are necessary when people refuse to act in their own interest, and one of the reasons that would happen is that people don't or can't trust the institutions who give them the information they need to judge their own interests. 

That's our situation in the US. Literally everyone who understands viruses is begging people to maintain social distance; my mom doesn't believe them and may be infecting my father as I write this. We're probably not going to give the government the power to outlaw church, and I doubt we should. But she should know better. If she were the only one, fine: so long to my dad, but the world will not blink. But there are millions of people who don't trust the institutions that are supposed to disseminate lifesaving information. 

So to me the more important question is, how do we create and maintain institutions that people can trust?


----------



## Strange Magic

> Science: "So to me the more important question is, how do we create and maintain institutions that people can trust?"


Have responsible political parties that are wholeheartedly dedicated to Science, Rationality, a Free and Responsible Press, an antipathy to Ideology, and a devotion instead to Pragmatic Problem-Solving. One of our two great political parties has wandered far from this path and instead embraced demagoguery, alternative "facts", and the easy appeals to bigotry, bullying, and base instincts.


----------



## schigolch

I think to enforce a quarantine in the US is totally different matter of enforcing a quarantine in Europe, not to say East Asia.

In Europe, we maybe don't like it. I don't, and I have one here in Spain. Also, I don't trust the government, that have mismanaged the health emergency completely. 

However, I will abide by the quarantine rules.

In the US, maybe I would have a couple of guns, a semi-automatic rifle or even a Kalashnikov... If I decide not to abide by the rules, well there is a problem. If thousands of people with guns decide that they don't abide by the rules, well there is a *huge* problem.


----------



## DaveM

When a coronavirus vaccine finally becomes available are the anti-vaxxers going to tell their elderly parents or grandparents with co-morbid conditions to not vaccinate or will they refuse to vaccinate themselves even though they will be in contact with those at risk of serious consequences?


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> ^^^ thanks for the review, but in med school I had to learn so much more about all those and about so many more bacteria, viruses and parasites. One of our teachers was an older professor with walking disability. It turned out he was one of the last victims of polio before it was eradicated by vaccinations. That was a terrible disease, leaving so many people disabled. And I remember vividly that the professors also warned us, that a pandemic will come, it is only a question of when. Now it is here. We can be thankful that it is so relatively mild, because the world is woefully unprepared. The tragedy is that humanity needs to constantly learn its lessons again and again. They make a terrible experience such as a world war or a pandemic, but as soon as the generations change and those with the experiences die, all the experiences must be repeated. Generations who remembered fascism are dying out, and we have neofascists all over the world etc.
> 
> Concerning the Black Death, it is usually not appreciated how much this pandemic shaped European culture. The whole baroque and its preoccupation with death was very much a product of this epidemic. The Dance of Death is pretty famous
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I have not doubt that the current pandemic is a black swan event that is going to change the world, though not as profoundly as the Black Death.


Thanks. I'm a doctor myself, and also studied this stuff.

I'm surprised at myself for forgetting to include *polio*, which my father died of in 1957. Well, here in America we've been almost polio-free since the 1990s (and Europe since 2002).

*Polio*: virus spread through feces-contaminated food/water, infecting some part of the nervous system between the brain stem and the end of the spinal cord. Polio has actually existed for thousands of years. The 1952 polio epidemic became the worst outbreak in the nation's history. Of the nearly 58,000 cases reported that year, 3,145 died.

The 1916 epidemic caused widespread panic and thousands fled the city to nearby mountain resorts; *movie theaters were closed, meetings were canceled, public gatherings were almost nonexistent, and children were warned not to drink from water fountains, and told to avoid amusement parks, swimming pools, and beaches. 
Sound familiar?  * From 1916 onward, a polio epidemic appeared each summer in at least one part of the country, with the most serious occurring in the 1940s and 1950s.

I was also going to continue on with the potential economic devastation that could result in a pandemic such as our current COVID-19 one. My wife just yelled from downstairs, _*"THEY'RE CLOSING THE SCHOOLS IN NEW YORK UNTIL APRIL 24TH!!!!!!"*_

As both a gig musician and choir accompanist, I am now binge watching TV series, as both performance venues and our schools have closed, and my income has suddenly become non-existent.

The operetta I was musical directing, and conducting from the piano (a very small pit orchestra) closed after its opening weekend, with the last two weekends being cancelled with no rescheduling possible.

The schools announced on Thursday that they'll be closed this coming week (although they remained open Friday). They announced on Friday that they'll determine possible subsequent closures this coming Wednesday.

Personally, my economy has crashed.

I'm not alone . . . I've heard from many others how their jobs have suddenly vanished, whether they work at a performance venue, restaurant, gym, or other places where up until two weeks ago people normally congregated. Even the library closed.


----------



## pianozach

*Some more random thoughts*:

I believe that the coronavirus, with an unknown incubation period, may be seriously *underreported* in the United States. At most, as of three days ago, less than 20,000 tests had been administered in the US.

Our administration has severely bungled the response to the threat, starting back in 2018 when our pandemic agencies were defunded or severely underfunded. Up until last week our president mocked the threat, and announced that the coronavirus was on the brink of disappearing. During a visit to Capitol Hill on Tuesday, Trump said *the virus "will go away" *and said his response was "really working out."

The lack of testing in the US is a disaster that the White House administration has brought upon our population.

So . . . on Wednesday Trump speechified from the Oval Office, but made several errors, and followed it up with an uninspired _"Woah boy!"_ or something like that.


----------



## starthrower

Seth Meyers is hilarious. Unfortunately Trump's flippant attitude towards the seriousness of this crisis was pathetic and highly irresponsible. The circle is closing in here in central New York where more cases are being reported closer and closer to home. I'm having a hard time finding what I need at the grocery stores. I've been to three different stores and there's no cleaning products, no paper products, no chicken, or oatmeal, or the dry cat food I need.


----------



## AeolianStrains

starthrower said:


> Seth Meyers is hilarious. Unfortunately Trump's flippant attitude towards the seriousness of this crisis was pathetic and highly irresponsible. The circle is closing in here in central New York where more cases are being reported closer and closer to home. I'm having a hard time finding what I need at the grocery stores. I've been to three different stores and there's no cleaning products, no paper products, no chicken, or oatmeal, or the dry cat food I need.


Two in the legislature have it, so it's basically already in Albany, I bet. I was in Lake Placid and Albany two weeks ago and already hand sanitizer and masks were out everywhere, from Home Depot to mom and pop stores.


----------



## starthrower

There was one case reported in Albany at one of the college's. Same in Ithaca. I'm going to the grocery store and the gym and that's it. My gym is super clean and they are doubling up since the outbreak. I go midday when there are only 20 people in there. It's a big room so I don't have to get close to anybody.


----------



## Guest

The main hope at this point, I think, is that it has already spread more widely than generally believed, and that the mortality rate is lower than it seems to be. It's a question for epidemiologists.


----------



## SixFootScowl

SixFootScowl said:


> Scott 1000 Toilet Paper, 30 Rolls for $582.99 + shipping!
> www.amazon.com/dp/B07LCMBS6F/





AeolianStrains said:


> Amazon will remove sellers who engage in price gouging. Everyone has to report them, though.


I reported it yesterday and it is now indicated as Currently Unavailable.
www.amazon.com/dp/B07LCMBS6F/
Someone added a comment taking the seller to task.


----------



## science

pianozach said:


> *Some more random thoughts*:
> 
> I believe that the coronavirus, with an unknown incubation period, may be seriously *underreported* in the United States. At most, as of three days ago, less than 20,000 tests had been administered in the US.
> 
> Our administration has severely bungled the response to the threat, starting back in 2018 when our pandemic agencies were defunded or severely underfunded. Up until last week our president mocked the threat, and announced that the coronavirus was on the brink of disappearing. During a visit to Capitol Hill on Tuesday, Trump said *the virus "will go away" *and said his response was "really working out."
> 
> The lack of testing in the US is a disaster that the White House administration has brought upon our population.
> 
> So . . . on Wednesday Trump speechified from the Oval Office, but made several errors, and followed it up with an uninspired _"Woah boy!"_ or something like that.


He seems like a decent guy.


----------



## pianozach

starthrower said:


> Seth Meyers is hilarious. Unfortunately Trump's flippant attitude towards the seriousness of this crisis was pathetic and highly irresponsible. The circle is closing in here in central New York where more cases are being reported closer and closer to home. I'm having a hard time finding what I need at the grocery stores. I've been to three different stores and there's no cleaning products, no paper products, no chicken, or oatmeal, or the dry cat food I need.





starthrower said:


> There was one case reported in Albany at one of the college's. Same in Ithaca. I'm going to the grocery store and the gym and that's it. My gym is super clean and they are doubling up since the outbreak. I go midday when there are only 20 people in there. It's a big room so I don't have to get close to anybody.


L.A.'s on lockdown. Bars and restaurants closed except for take out. Theaters (both live and movie), gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, arcades ordered closed.

We went on a cabin fever grocery shopping adventure. Visited four stores: *Smart & Final* (a combination grocery/restaurant supply market), *Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market*, *Namaste Spiceland* (Indian market), and *Mercado Guadalajara* (a Mexican grocery store).

No eggs, no toilet paper, no bread.
Barely any rice or beans or pasta.


----------



## jurianbai

stay healthy guys. i check this thread regularly, because this is like first hand report by TC member here.


----------



## Art Rock

The Netherlands is also almost locked down. Restaurants, bars, sport centers, schools, libraries, museums, all closed for at least a few weeks. No gatherings of 100 people or more, and any gathering needs to ensure sufficient distance from one person to another. Shops can still open, and (small) markets are held as usual. We too have idiots hoarding toilet paper and so on, but supermarkets in our town are so far not running out of supplies. Going out, I avoid people as much as possible, and of course do the rigorous hand washing every time I come back home, and several times inbetween.

I worry for several close family members who are in the danger groups (including three over 70, one of which is a cancer patient, one has heart problems, but also three much younger ones who have serious illnesses). And frankly, I worry about myself, because as a heart patient (I had a heart attack 10 years ago, and have a leaking heart valve since birth) I'm also in the danger group. Fortunately my wife is not in any danger group, but if she gets it, I get it.


----------



## elgar's ghost

I'm off for my weekly grocery run tomorrow. Something tells me I'd best get there early doors, especially when bearing in mind toilet paper is one of the things I need. At least so far we are at liberty in the UK, but for how long? I have a sister in hospital for something unrelated to coronavirus but I don't know long she is to stay in there.

In the meantime I'm keeping my fingers crossed for everyone here.


----------



## Granate

So far, it seem Spanish _Correos_ (Mail service) will continue its service with reduced services and opening their offices only 3h a day. Just 6 days ago I had ordered 5 cd sets, which I expected to arrive in three different packages (1 per seller). I don't really think they will arrive at my place by April, but I still expect to be able to get it in my door (it would be foolish to sign on the postman device) or go to the office when the three are ready.

People are complaining about this situation, many asking to let the workers remain home and stop post service. Another has complained about positives in the Amazon Spain office in Madrid and asking for shutdown.

I do have something in my mind. Even if I'm baffled by UK's official strategy against the virus, I can agree that way more than half of the global population can go through this anytime now or in the future. This virus has been so contagious because it meets all the standards for societies to let it spread: human contact, social activities, signs of affection. It has affected three of the cultures who value the most staying in crowds, kissing or touching each other (Spain, Italy and China).

The main goal now should be to find the vaccine, and meanwhile states are trying to find the way to protect their population from disease without harming their services. However we shut down the economy and we gain time for scientists to find the vaccine, covid-19 is going to remain here for a long time. That's why I still see some panic in asking for the shutdown of the post service.

Now my concern is the possible lockdown of the Spanish borders since I don't know if my packages coming from the US, UK and Japan have already crossed to the peninsula and then Correos can handle it.


----------



## mrdoc

I have been emailed with the following (The Berlin Philharmonic is closed due to the virus situation,) what a blooming mess.


----------



## haydnguy

Two Emergency Room Doctors Are in Critical Condition With Coronavirus

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/two-us-emergency-room-doctors-critical/ar-BB11ecaw?ocid=msedgntp


----------



## Skilmarilion

Granate said:


> So far, it seem Spanish _Correos_ (Mail service) will continue its service with reduced services and opening their offices only 3h a day. Just 6 days ago I had ordered 5 cd sets, which I expected to arrive in three different packages (1 per seller). I don't really think they will arrive at my place by April, but I still expect to be able to get it in my door (it would be foolish to sign on the postman device) or go to the office when the three are ready.
> 
> [...]
> 
> Now my concern is the possible lockdown of the Spanish borders since I don't know if my packages coming from the US, UK and Japan have already crossed to the peninsula and then Correos can handle it.


Time to switch to streaming.


----------



## Sad Al

Worst of all, ice hockey has been canceled. Another fine mess, as Laurel & Hardy put it. Is this going to be the final fine mess? Surely people can't live long without ice hockey


----------



## starthrower

The retail stores allowed people to binge buy and deplete vital resources and now local governments want to enforce a lock down? This isn't going to work. I talked to a millennial at a grocery store yesterday and she admitted to buying 30 bottles of hand sanitizer. And the cashier at the Dollar Tree down the street told me they sold 35 four packs of toilet paper to one person. This selfishness and idiocy has put us in a terrible bind. Systems are going collapse all over the world.


----------



## haydnguy

*Stocks plunge at opening bell, triggering trading halt*

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-plunge-at-opening-bell-triggering-trading-halt-2020-03-16?mod=mw_quote_news


----------



## science

starthrower said:


> The retail stores allowed people to binge buy and deplete vital resources and now local governments want to enforce a lock down? This isn't going to work. I talked to a millennial at a grocery store yesterday and she admitted to buying 30 bottles of hand sanitizer. And the cashier at the Dollar Tree down the street told me they sold 35 four packs of toilet paper to one person. This selfishness and idiocy has put us in a terrible bind. Systems are going collapse all over the world.


Hand sanitizer and toilet paper are neither vital nor hard to replenish.

Even at the peak of the trouble in Korea, we could still order pizza. The busses and subways kept running, the toilets kept flushing, the electricity never went out.

Worst case scenario, almost everyone gets the virus. Even then, almost no one under 60 dies. Very few of the people who actually keep society functioning will even get very ill for more than a day or two.

I'm not downplaying the tragedy -- I hope I'm wrong, but I believe I'm going to lose family members in the next few weeks; I have a lot of old aunts and uncles and we're from coal country so everyone already struggles to breathe -- but we're almost certainly looking at a recession, not the apocalypse.


----------



## AeolianStrains

starthrower said:


> The retail stores allowed people to binge buy and deplete vital resources and now local governments want to enforce a lock down? This isn't going to work. I talked to a millennial at a grocery store yesterday and she admitted to buying 30 bottles of hand sanitizer. And the cashier at the Dollar Tree down the street told me they sold 35 four packs of toilet paper to one person. This selfishness and idiocy has put us in a terrible bind. Systems are going collapse all over the world.


Can't blame it all on the millennias. I've seen all stripes of people doing ridiculous things. 35 bottles of hand sanitizer is just stupid, though. I use the stuff for work since I'm interacting with items people touch all day long, and it has been so frustrating being unable to procure any. The company instead decided to shut down indefinitely.

I think everything will return to some semblance of normality soon, at least store-wise.


----------



## Sad Al

science said:


> Worst case scenario, almost everyone gets the virus. Even then, almost no one under 60 dies. Very few of the people who actually keep society functioning will even get very ill for more than a day or two.


More than 50% of Dutch ICU patients are under 50. I wish they could share your wisdom


----------



## science

Sad Al said:


> More than 50% of Dutch ICU patients are under 50. I wish they could share your wisdom


I don't know anything about what is going on in the Netherlands, but so far the mortality rate for people under 50 has been well under 1%.


----------



## SixFootScowl

starthrower said:


> The retail stores allowed people to binge buy and deplete vital resources and now local governments want to enforce a lock down? This isn't going to work. I talked to a millennial at a grocery store yesterday and she admitted to buying 30 bottles of hand sanitizer. And the cashier at the Dollar Tree down the street told me they sold 35 four packs of toilet paper to one person. This selfishness and idiocy has put us in a terrible bind. Systems are going collapse all over the world.


I figure one way they might have limited hoarding is to go to a cash only sales policy. Of course then there would be a run on the banks. Everything is so interdependent. I went to the bank Saturday morning and there was hardly a line. I only had to wait a few minutes.


----------



## starthrower

I'm not blaming all millennials. I sited one example of thoughtlessness. Obviously it's all pervasive as people panic. I don't use hand sanitizer. I use soap and water. After a couple more weeks people will adjust to the new reality and if we don't have a depression or a world wide death spiral, we'll just wait it out. I'm one of the fortunate people at home recovering from surgery so I don't have to be out much mingling with people.


----------



## schigolch

science said:


> I don't know anything about what is going on in the Netherlands, but so far the mortality rate for people under 50 has been well under 1%.


Yes.

Even in patients between 51-60 years old, is slightly over 1%... The big concern is people over 60, especially over 70 with preexistent conditions.


----------



## SixFootScowl

A coworker said his friend was heading for the checkout and remembered something he forgot, and went in to next aisle to get it, came back and his cart was GONE!


----------



## Guest

Quick report from *Strasbourg* (France): we're in a semi-lockdown (schools and universities closed, same thing for restaurants, bars, cinemas, and all non-essentialo shops). Tonight President Macron will speak to the nation, rumour having it that more extreme measures will be taken, including curfew after 18h.


----------



## haydnguy

Just saw where Trudeau is closing Canadian borders to non-citizens.


----------



## Art Rock

You just got to love the reactions of different people to the virus:

Average idiot: TOILET PAPER! GET ALL THE TOILET PAPER!
TC member: My CD's! Will my CD's be delivered?


----------



## starthrower

Speaking of CDs being delivered, an infectious disease article I read stated that the virus can survive up to 24 hours on cardboard. So wash your hands after handling your packages.


----------



## Granate

Art Rock said:


> TC member: My CD's! Will my CD's be delivered?


:lol: Ok, I can wait. I'm now a bit more worried about my phone battery since the indicator had a disfunction this afternoon. As long as it is inside Spanish territory I will get them sooner or later. I cannot know since I don't have a package tracker. I guess my worry about my 60€ spent on CDs has nothing to do with my boss seeing the workflow posibilities dramatically reduced (we can all work from home but not revise each other before sending the projects as always).

The priority is that those who need to get notifications get the letter on time. The Government office has also been closed and I've been months trying to claim the location of my University degree diploma. It was supposed to have arrived in January but I haven't got any permission by the office. I was going to claim it last Thursday but surprise!

Update: Ok, so Spanish Home office will only close land borders, but they may close air borders if needed. The order does not affect to cargo transportation. Time to wait...


----------



## senza sordino

SixFootScowl said:


> A coworker said his friend was heading for the checkout and remembered something he forgot, and went in to next aisle to get it, came back and his cart was GONE!


That is an awful sign of the times. That's terrible. David Brooks on Meet the Press yesterday said that historically these pandemics tend to bring out the worst in people.



SixFootScowl said:


> I figure one way they might have limited hoarding is to go to a cash only sales policy. Of course then there would be a run on the banks. Everything is so interdependent. I went to the bank Saturday morning and there was hardly a line. I only had to wait a few minutes.


Not a bad idea. It's a good idea to have some cash on hand for any emergency. About 15 years ago, my local neighbourhood lost power for four days. Safeway had to close. The only shop that stayed open was a local fruit and vegetable shop that sold items for cash only. And cash machines were closed.



starthrower said:


> The retail stores allowed people to binge buy and deplete vital resources and now local governments want to enforce a lock down? This isn't going to work. I talked to a millennial at a grocery store yesterday and she admitted to buying 30 bottles of hand sanitizer. And the cashier at the Dollar Tree down the street told me they sold 35 four packs of toilet paper to one person. This selfishness and idiocy has put us in a terrible bind. Systems are going collapse all over the world.


I heard that one person was seen buying twenty gallons (twenty jugs) of milk. Where would he keep this? He would have to sell this on immediately. My sister works at a large grocery shop. She says it's been insane, far worse than Christmas Eve.

I went to my local grocery shop this morning for a few items. No eggs, no milk, no yogurt, no potatoes, no flour and other baking supplies, no cleaning supplies, no paper products etc. I took the last tea I like, I took the second to last box of dishwasher detergent. Large aisles of empty shelves. It was very busy for a Monday morning. It must have been insane over the weekend. It looks like the end of the world.










No paper products at my local grocery shop. But plenty of birthday cards if you still feel like being nice to someone.


----------



## DaveM

haydnguy said:


> Just saw where Trudeau is closing Canadian borders to non-citizens.


US citizens are exempt 'for now'.


----------



## schigolch

Granate said:


> Update: Ok, so Spanish Home office will only close land borders, but they may close air borders if needed. The order does not affect to cargo transportation. Time to wait...


What a splendid idea!. This way, Spain can protect itself from infected people coming from France or Portugal, countries where there are many more cases and deaths than in Spain and...oh, wait!.


----------



## SixFootScowl

Art Rock said:


> You just got to love the reactions of different people to the virus:
> 
> Average idiot: TOILET PAPER! GET ALL THE TOILET PAPER!
> TC member: My CD's! Will my CD's be delivered?


We here at TC have our priorities straight!


----------



## SixFootScowl

senza sordino said:


> Not a bad idea. It's a good idea to have some cash on hand for any emergency. About 15 years ago, my local neighbourhood lost power for four days. Safeway had to close. The only shop that stayed open was a local fruit and vegetable shop that sold items for cash only. And cash machines were closed.


I once went to the grocery on a very busy day, long lines, and one register's credit card reader was broken so the sign said "Cash Only." I saw a lot of people with full carts staring longingly at the empty line. I managed to get through with cash as I had a smaller amount of stuff and about $60 in cash. They say, Cash is King. We never go seriously to buy a used car without the cash in pocket.



> I heard that one person was seen buying twenty gallons (twenty jugs) of milk. Where would he keep this? He would have to sell this on immediately. My sister works at a large grocery shop. She says it's been insane, far worse than Christmas Eve.


I have seen that with milk and with motor oil when there were great sales. Figure the milk was resold at a local convenience store at twice what paid, and the oil could be going to the local oil change shop or just some guy's basement. I once had about 260 quarts of motor oil on stash when the new grade (SM) came in there were clearances where I was getting quality oil for $1 and $2 a quart. Now I only have about 10 5-qt jugs to service 6 vehicles. *Here is a photo of my stash in 2011*. The smaller black bottles and pink bottles on left are oil booster (zddp).


----------



## aleazk

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-deaths-from-coronavirus-are-so-high-in-italy


----------



## haydnguy

DaveM said:


> US citizens are exempt 'for now'.


Ah, I saw the "alert" before the actual article had been shown.


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

haydnguy said:


> Just saw where Trudeau is closing Canadian borders to non-citizens.


2 weeks too late. Community spread is already happening in Canada. People coming in are not screened at all and allowed to spread the virus. The federal government has been saying they have been following the advice of their medical experts and I find that a little hard to believe. WHO has been recommending to test and isolate (in health facilities, not at-home as relying on people's ethics and sense of social responsibility is not enough) as many infected individuals as possible. In addition, you'd have to stop the continued influx of new infections. The Canadian government just started on that last one (with some exceptions) but they are still turning many potentially infected people away, in order to save the limited number of test kits, and asking them to self-isolate. Knowing people, I bet many won't follow the strict self-isolation guidelines and will infect others

Yeah, we are screwed. In the current situation, I'm afraid an authoritarian government, like China's, is better suited to deal with this dire situation


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

What do you call a person who looks at poop ? Toilet peeper


----------



## erki

TwoFlutesOneTrumpet said:


> Yeah, we are screwed.


 World-wide out of 7,800,000,000 only 181,310 infected. Calm down now!
And to spoil a bit this China admiration remember that they jailed the doctor who fist reported the new virus for casting bad light to China in the world.


----------



## science

haydnguy said:


> Just saw where Trudeau is closing Canadian borders to non-citizens.


I'm surprised he didn't do that sooner, considering that the US is testing essentially no one, and half the population can't risk going to the doctor for a fever and cough anyway.


----------



## science

TwoFlutesOneTrumpet said:


> In the current situation, I'm afraid an authoritarian government, like China's, is better suited to deal with this dire situation


Don't fear.

South Korea and Taiwan have dealt with it just fine.

It's not about limiting human rights. It's about being prepared, having trustworthy institutions, and improving communication.


----------



## mrdoc

TalkingHead said:


> Tonight President Macron will speak to the nation, rumour having it that more extreme measures will be taken, including curfew after 18h.


And if you are a broad come home...


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> Speaking of CDs being delivered, an infectious disease article I read stated that the virus can survive up to 24 hours on cardboard. *So wash your hands after handling your packages*.


I do love a _double entendre_, especially during periods of crisis.


----------



## senza sordino

We don't want to completely shut the border with the USA because we get a lot of our food from south of the border. We can do our best to stop non essential travel across the border. And especially here on the west coast because there's been a cluster in Washington State. Today our numbers here in BC went up again, and three new deaths. Our new cases are still mostly travel related, but from the USA, not overseas. 

My colleague did go to New Zealand for a holiday a couple of days ago. She's posting pictures all over social media. I wonder what'll happen to her upon her return? We're public employees. She left after we were told not to go by our employer, the government. 


My questions:

Can the virus remain on food, cooked or uncooked?

Can you pick up the virus on your hands, give it to someone else, and not get infected yourself?

How well does the virus remain on clothes?

Why is it that you might spread the disease without having symptoms? I've heard this is possible. But then why it is possible you test negative because the viral load is too low to test, a so called false negative?


----------



## Sad Al

Is cash going to stay King after printing $1,500,000,000,000 to prop up the stock market? What happens when all this funny money leaves the stock market and goes chasing after far too few goods and services? Hmm...


----------



## starthrower

It can take several days for an infected individual to produce symptoms and during this time said person is contagious. And infected children many never develop symptoms but can spread the disease. I don't know the answer to the food question. But I'm not buying any exposed, unpackaged fruit, veggies or meat.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> Speaking of CDs being delivered, an infectious disease article I read stated that the virus can survive up to 24 hours on cardboard. *So wash your hands after handling your packages.*


Regarding my post about _double entendres_:
https://ukcomics.fandom.com/wiki/Finbarr_Saunders


----------



## CnC Bartok

TalkingHead said:


> Regarding my post about _double entendres_:
> https://ukcomics.fandom.com/wiki/Finbarr_Saunders


Fnarr! Fmarr! Mr Gimlet!


----------



## erki

It seems to me that all governments act as in panic. From one side there is a scientific/pragmatic reason and from another emotionally unstable public. So they need to do something. Most likely it is too late and un-necessary anyway. But it'll keep public somewhat under the control.
It has been said here in my country rather well that to take away any bit of civil rights for any reason is the most serious matter that needs to be thought over really hard. To close borders without very good reason is irresponsible at least. I have a feeling that this measure has very little effect on the outcome of this crisis but for the general point of view probably unavoidable. Protect elders is must but to shut down the economy probably not.


----------



## pianozach

Sad Al said:


> Worst of all, ice hockey has been canceled. Another fine mess, as Laurel & Hardy put it. Is this going to be the final fine mess? Surely people can't live long without ice hockey


First the NBA, then the NCAA, then the NHL.

NASCAR announced they're postponing all race events through May 3.

Little League has postponed

The PGA Tour canceled the Players Championship after the first round and all tournaments until the Masters.

MLB has canceled the remainder of spring training and is pushing back the start of the regular season by at least two weeks

The MLS season has been put on hold. Only two games into the season, the league announced it is suspending play for 30 days.

The United States Soccer Federation announced it would cancel upcoming Men's and Women's national team matches in March and April

XFL has suspended play

Tennis: ATP and WTA tours are suspended through April 20

Concerts, film openings, St. Patrick's Day parades, Amusement Parks, bars, restaurants, conventions . . . .


----------



## pianozach

haydnguy said:


> *Stocks plunge at opening bell, triggering trading halt*
> 
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-plunge-at-opening-bell-triggering-trading-halt-2020-03-16?mod=mw_quote_news


DOW closes down 2,997.

It opened down, started rallying, then dove 1,000 points when Trump started talking.


----------



## premont

senza sordino said:


> My questions:
> 
> Can the virus remain on food, cooked or uncooked?


Uncooked yes, but cooked no. Virus is inactivated at least at 80 degrees celsius.



senza sordino said:


> Can you pick up the virus on your hands, give it to someone else, and not get infected yourself?


Yes. virus does not multiplicate on the skin. If you don't touch your face or mouth, you will not get infected yourself. Well, a reason to wash ones hands often.



senza sordino said:


> How well does the virus remain on clothes?


Don't know for sure, but probably from one to two days.



senza sordino said:


> Why is it that you might spread the disease without having symptoms? I've heard this is possible. But then why it is possible you test negative because the viral load is too low to test, a so called false negative?


You may harbor the virus in your pharynx without having any sign of infection, and then spreading it around when you cough, even if tests are negative. As far as I understand the smears aren't taken from the pharynx.

Or you may be in the incubation period, which may be long, before symptoms appear.


----------



## Machiavel

I see it more as a test to see how easy it is to control mass population with fears and medias, traditional and social.

Can you imagine the liberties peoples will accept to lose when they scares us even more with the climate. kids are already happy to accept anything in the name of it. I see sadly a world more and more controlled by a few and middle classes going extinct with the rich and the poor like a dystopian aka orwell world instead of lets say star trek ideals. Add to that we are almost in an idiocracy era where peoples dont seem to be as good, intelligent and be able to do thing by themselves always slaves to technology.

I think the world is going in a really really bad trend and I dont see it changing for the good with Ai. Soon we will all be equally poor. it will be so fun to watch society as we know crumbles.


Lets not forget the next global recession which will be 10 times worse than the last one and they will all blame it on the virus. 

How convenient. We are truly nothing more than sheeps all of us. for the climate be prepare for taxes, force to buy this or let go of your car. more contro on control and less free choices.

I dont know if the already poor peoples will be happy when we are all equally poor. Where the most genius of the poor will never evr be able to achive something greater than the dumbest of the dumbest rich kid.


----------



## eljr

pianozach said:


> then dove..... when Trump started talking.


as all sane people do


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

erki said:


> World-wide out of 7,800,000,000 only 181,310 infected. Calm down now!
> And to spoil a bit this China admiration remember that they jailed the doctor who fist reported the new virus for casting bad light to China in the world.


I am CALM! 
And to be clear, I am not admiring China per se. I just stated that in a situation like the present where you need everyone to abide by the recommendations of the medical experts, an iron fist works much better than gentle request.


----------



## jurianbai

third day check in. my town officially lock down since Monday.


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

jurianbai said:


> third day check in. my town officially lock down since Monday.


What is your town? What's the extent of the lock-down?


----------



## Open Book

Restrictions are probably not going to end anytime soon. This model from the New York Times shows the peak number of cases in the U.S. is expected to occur in July-August 2020.

The model is also supposed to show that the height of the peak and the number of deaths can be greatly reduced by early interventions that limit human interaction. But the interventions don't change the time the peak will be reached, it will be July-August no matter what we do. It's not well explained.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html


----------



## mrdoc

starthrower said:


> Speaking of CDs being delivered, an infectious disease article I read stated that the virus can survive up to 24 hours on cardboard. So wash your hands after handling your packages.


I heard that it can last from a few hours to 3-4 days on a hard surface so canned food etc??


----------



## science

Open Book said:


> Restrictions are probably not going to end anytime soon. This model from the New York Times shows the peak number of cases in the U.S. is expected to occur in July-August 2020.
> 
> The model is also supposed to show that the height of the peak and the number of deaths can be greatly reduced by early interventions that limit human interaction. But the interventions don't change the time the peak will be reached, it will be July-August no matter what we do. It's not well explained.
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html


These things are always only educated guesses anyway.

It'll be at least a month, for sure, although some of the restrictions will probably be adjusted so that people can go to work.


----------



## mikeh375

This is a very sobering wake up to anyone who thinks it'll be over in a matter of months. From Imperial College London...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-lockdown-uk-vaccine-cure-covid-19-nhs-government-scientists-a9404636.html


----------



## starthrower

It's not looking to be a very fun summer this year. New York State has now closed all the gyms so there goes my therapy. I really don't see how all of these businesses can sustain the losses? Since humanity's biggest enemies are microbes, maybe governments can end their war spending and put the money to good use? Fat chance, huh?


----------



## erki

Well, war is an efficient way to limit human interaction as well.


----------



## Sad Al

Does booze kill coronavirus?


----------



## Luchesi

DrMike has been very busy! Fighting the good fight.. Last post March 13th.


----------



## philoctetes

They closed my gym today... but my county is not part of the Bay Area "shelter in place" mandate... yet

So we're all just like Arnold now right... no gym to go to... just humble kitchen folk, stuck at home home with an *** and a pony... wonder what else he has to keep him company...


----------



## Alinde

mrdoc said:


> I heard that it can last from a few hours to 3-4 days on a hard surface so canned food etc??


Tips my friend, the infectious diseases specialist, has passed on to me regarding packages:

*Strategy*
Since the virus remains active on surfaces for 48 hours, bring mail and packages into the house using disposable gloves and leave unopened for 2 days, if possible.

Then, spray surfaces with dilute bleach and water and open after 1 hour.

Spray objects inside packages in the same way.

Spray mailbox and outside door after each delivery wearing disposable gloves.

All this advice about washing your hands a lot won't work in the long run. If the pandemic heats up you will probably get infected if you touch anything outside your house, including a gas pump or an A.T.M.

You can order stuff for delivery, but it can't be fresh fruits and vegetables because they cannot be disinfected with bleach and water. So you will need the vitamins I listed, as your stay at home diet may get to be deficient in some of them.


----------



## Guest

Sad Al said:


> Does booze kill coronavirus?


Not sure, but I'm carrying out daily experiments to find out!


----------



## senza sordino

premont said:


> You may harbor the virus in your pharynx without having any sign of infection, and then spreading it around when you cough, even if tests are negative. As far as I understand the smears aren't taken from the pharynx.
> 
> Or you may be in the incubation period, which may be long, before symptoms appear.


Thank-you for your answers, they were very helpful. And I have follow up questions.

If the virus can be in your pharynx, why don't we swab there too?

Can a blood test be used to detect the virus? Does the virus get into the blood? Do the B cells produce antibodies in the blood? Or does all of the antibody production happen in the respiratory system?

Can we use the antibodies (or blood) of recovered patients to treat sick patients? Does it have to be a vaccine?


----------



## DaveM

At this time, the testing is for people with symptoms. Blood tests are not accurate. The use of antibodies of recovered patients is one of several methods being investigated.


----------



## haydnguy

starthrower said:


> It can take several days for an infected individual to produce symptoms and during this time said person is contagious. And infected children many never develop symptoms but can spread the disease. I don't know the answer to the food question. But I'm not buying any exposed, unpackaged fruit, veggies or meat.


One thing that has come up on social media and has already affected where I live is that young people (not picking on them here) may not be so willing to abide by avoiding social situations. The reason is that they are out of school, sometimes cooped up in small apartments and it is there time of life where they want to get out and socialize.


----------



## Phil loves classical

Not sure how accurate these studies are. But according to some calculations this virus has actually saved more lives.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Coronavirus-Is-Saving-Lives.html


----------



## pianozach

starthrower said:


> It's not looking to be a very fun summer this year. New York State has now closed all the gyms so there goes my therapy. I really don't see how all of these businesses can sustain the losses? Since humanity's biggest enemies are microbes, maybe governments can end their war spending and put the money to good use? Fat chance, huh?


Maybe we could combat the virus with bacterial warfare?

Yeah, I'm being snarky, but is it possible to give a virus a bacterial infection?

The surprising answer is "yes", it is possible.

"Bacteria vs. viruses is one of the oldest fights on Earth. Certain viruses need to infect bacteria in order to reproduce, but the bacteria do not want to be infected. How do bacteria that survive viral infection make sure that it does not happen again? Many kinds of bacteria have developed a process called CRISPR that helps them remember viruses they have seen before. CRISPR also allows bacteria to keep the virus from destroying them. While humans do not have CRISPR in their cells, they have figured out some exciting ways to use CRISPR in the lab."

https://kids.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/frym.2019.00002


----------



## Art Rock

Just thinking out of the box (after a bit too much wine with dinner maybe) - we know alcohol can kill the virus. Now obviously (and unfortunately) alcohol in the stomach will not kill a virus that works in the lungs - but how about inhaling alcohol fumes?


----------



## Bwv 1080

Art Rock said:


> Just thinking out of the box (after a bit too much wine with dinner maybe) - we know alcohol can kill the virus. Now obviously (and unfortunately) alcohol in the stomach will not kill a virus that works in the lungs - but how about inhaling alcohol fumes?


Inhaling liquid alcohol will kill the virus, but the side effects are unfortunate


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Wait ! Here comes the Dishwasher's Riot . " Really , come on , we wash the wishes ."
Look out ! Here comes the U.N. Peacekeeper Troops with blue hats . 

"Ok . we can get blue hats . too ."


----------



## premont

senza sordino said:


> If the virus can be in your pharynx, why don't we swab there too?


In my country we do throat swabs.



senza sordino said:


> Can a blood test be used to detect the virus? Does the virus get into the blood? Do the B cells produce antibodies in the blood? Or does all of the antibody production happen in the respiratory system?


I suppose the B cells are responsible for the production of the Corona virus antibodies. Virus antibodies are usually detected in the blood. I do not know how early it is possible to detect them in the run of the Co-V-2 infection.



senza sordino said:


> Can we use the antibodies (or blood) of recovered patients to treat sick patients? Does it have to be a vaccine?


Both ways are investigated to the outmost all over the world in these days. Serum from recovered patients contain specific antibodies, which maybe may be used to treat sick patients or maybe as a short term prophylaxis, but in the recipient these antibodies rather quickly vanish again. On the other hand vaccination (= injection of inactivated virus) stimulates the production of antibodies in the individual itself, but can only be used preventive and it takes some time after the vaccination for the individual to b able to produce his own antibodies in sufficient quantities..

Some litterature about this, here:

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/13/covid-19-antibody-sera-arturo-casadevall/


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> Both ways are investigated to the outmost all over the world in these days. Serum from recovered patients contain specific antibodies, which maybe may be used to treat sick patients or maybe as a short term prophylaxis, but these antibodies rather quickly vanish again. On the other hand vaccination stimulates the production of antibodies in the individual itself, but can only be used preventive and it takes some time after the vaccination for the individual to b able to produce his own antibodies in sufficient quantities..


I am lazy to search for it now, but some time ago I posted here some paper about the immune response to SARS and MERS. They both produced just short-lived IgM antibodies (lasting only couple of months), and no long term humoral immunity. But they produced long lived memory T-cells. I am not sure how much protective the memory T cells are for reinfections. They probably help somewhat.


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> I am lazy to search for it now, but some time ago I posted here some paper about the immune response to SARS and MERS. They both produced just short-lived IgM antibodies (lasting only couple of months), and no long term humoral immunity. But they produced long lived memory T-cells. I am not sure how much protective the memory T cells are for reinfections. They probably help somewhat.


Yes, one can only hope, that the immunity after Co-V-2 infection lasts longer than after SARS Co-V-1 and MERS no matter which cells are involved..


----------



## haydnguy

All of our state schools are mandated to be closed for the next two weeks. I'm not sure if that is going to be long enough.

All of the students can do school work from home via their computers but if it is a fairly large high school and even a handful of students have it, that could make a big difference. Even without symptoms at school they could take it with them and infect those at home and in other places outside the home.


----------



## SixFootScowl

*More on the toilet paper front.*


----------



## starthrower

Numerous informative articles linked at this page.
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/the-latest-on-the-coronavirus/

I can't find a website, and maybe there isn't one but a doctor by the name of Joseph Allen posted some very interesting information and graphs on Facebook and Twitter. I found it at jazz musician Russ Gershon's FB page if anyone is interested. He discusses the various possible scenarios, lock down time frames, mobilization plans, etc.


----------



## perempe

starthrower said:


> But I'm not buying any exposed, unpackaged fruit, veggies or meat.


You can be less skeptic with meat as you will either boil, bake or fry it.


----------



## haydnguy

** This post on Twitter was dated 3/15/2020

The #coronavirus in Italy

Day1 14cases/1dead
76/2
153/3
231/7
374/12
528/17
821/21
1128/29
1577/34
Day10 1835/52
2263/79
2706/107
3296/148
3916/197
5061/233
6387/366
7985/463
8514/631
10590/827
Day20 12839/1015
14955/1266
17750/1441
20603/1809

10% recover
125k test
101k negat.


----------



## Guest

Art Rock said:


> Just thinking out of the box (after a bit too much wine with dinner maybe) - we know alcohol can kill the virus. Now obviously (and unfortunately) alcohol in the stomach will not kill a virus that works in the lungs - but how about inhaling alcohol fumes?


If that doesn't work for you, you could always try chlorine gas. Should really kill that virus.


----------



## KenOC

Total cases minus active cases equals closed cases. Those are the cases that have resulted either in recovery or death. The case fatality rate (CFR) is usually calculated as the percent of closed cases that ended in death. Obviously the CFR plus the recovery rate will always equal 100%.

The calculated CFR of Covid-19 has been in decline from the beginning. It hit a low of 5.64% on March 7 and has since climbed, rising to 8.25% as of yesterday March 16. This is disturbing and I have no idea why it is happening.


----------



## science

Phil loves classical said:


> Not sure how accurate these studies are. But according to some calculations this virus has actually saved more lives.
> 
> https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Coronavirus-Is-Saving-Lives.html


The article is saying that China's air pollution is so bad that reducing it saved more lives than coronavirus killed.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Total cases minus active cases equals closed cases. Those are the cases that have resulted either in recovery or death. The case fatality rate (CFR) is usually calculated as the percent of closed cases that ended in death. Obviously the CFR plus the recovery rate will always equal 100%.
> 
> The calculated CFR of Covid-19 has been in decline from the beginning. It hit a low of 5.64% on March 7 and has since climbed, rising to 8.25% as of yesterday March 16. This is disturbing and I have no idea why it is happening.


Worldwide? Because some countries are skewing that curve.


----------



## haydnguy

I was just looking at the posts of Joseph Allen that starthrower posted about.

It's hard to comprehend how fast events are moving. From the world economy to the world health, it looks like we're in for a long slog. I hope it's not true, of course, but just looking at what people (supposedly experts) are saying, different projections are bad even the most optimistic ones.


----------



## Strange Magic

This may have already been proposed, but assuming that there is immunity to COVID-19 following recovery, and the longevity of the immunity is determined, a special corps of recovered individuals could be assembled to again move freely about, serving as the vanguard to societal reactivation. Deliverers of essentials to homes and shelters; healthcare and emergency workers; other vital societal roles.


----------



## DaveM

I haven’t heard this anywhere, but:

People unable to work so stuck at home.
People stuck at home due to ‘shelter in place’.
Minimal outside sources of entertainment restaurants, theaters, bars, sports events closing.
Likely more drinking and inhaling various substances at home.

Consequence: a lot of babies in December, January 2021 and February 2021!


----------



## erki

DaveM said:


> Consequence: a lot of babies in December, January 2021 and February 2021!


That's what my wife said few days ago!


----------



## CnC Bartok

DaveM said:


> I haven't heard this anywhere, but:
> 
> People unable to work so stuck at home.
> People stuck at home due to 'shelter in place'.
> Minimal outside sources of entertainment restaurants, theaters, bars, sports events closing.
> Likely more drinking and inhaling various substances at home.
> 
> Consequence: a lot of babies in December, January 2021 and February 2021!


Alternative consequence: divorce lawyers' bonanza in the second half of 2020!


----------



## schigolch

KenOC said:


> Total cases minus active cases equals closed cases. Those are the cases that have resulted either in recovery or death. The case fatality rate (CFR) is usually calculated as the percent of closed cases that ended in death. Obviously the CFR plus the recovery rate will always equal 100%.
> 
> The calculated CFR of Covid-19 has been in decline from the beginning. It hit a low of 5.64% on March 7 and has since climbed, rising to 8.25% as of yesterday March 16. This is disturbing and I have no idea why it is happening.


Look at countries like Italy, Iran and Spain, that are concentrating many of the cases and deaths, now.

For many days, the CFR was determined by China, but not anymore. It will continue growing for some days, I think.


----------



## mikeh375

Thanks Italy.....

http://www.openculture.com/2020/03/quarantined-italians-send-a-message-to-themselves.html?fbclid=IwAR14oaHGUzME1JE0xkfUBGmnqFsjo1XIHILGf_bo9CK7m5UTNS_2igKJKnI

My heart also goes out to the UK's flood victims, as if _that_ wasn't bad enough.


----------



## CnC Bartok

Re my tongue-in-cheek comment above, from the BBC this morning:

Self-isolation measures are likely to lead to an increase in divorces - that's according to one of the UK's leading divorce lawyers.

Baroness Shackleton of Belgravia, who has had such illustrious clients as Paul McCartney, the Prince of Wales, Madonna and Liam Gallagher, believes the prolonged periods of being stuck together without escape might be more than some couples can handle.

"Our peak times are after long exposure during the summer holidays and over Christmas," she said, speaking in the House of Lords.

"One only has to imagine what it's going to be like when families are sealed in a property for a long period of time."

So if you are or will be self-isolating... just try to be extra nice to each other.


----------



## CnC Bartok

Art Rock said:


> Just thinking out of the box (after a bit too much wine with dinner maybe) - we know alcohol can kill the virus. Now obviously (and unfortunately) alcohol in the stomach will not kill a virus that works in the lungs - but how about inhaling alcohol fumes?


Yeah, apparently bleach will kill the virus too. But I don't think we'll see many people drinking or inhaling that. It might become UK government "advice" soon, mind, considering their blase approach so far.....

Likewise the virus seems to survive for the shortest possible time on copper surfaces. Suck a coin?


----------



## Sad Al

Perhaps door handles should be plated with copper foil ASAP


----------



## Room2201974

I used to go to the gym to flatten the curve....


----------



## starthrower

Room2201974 said:


> I used to go to the gym to flatten the curve....


I go to look at the curves.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Maybe we could combat the virus with bacterial warfare?
> 
> Yeah, I'm being snarky, but is it possible to give a virus a bacterial infection?
> 
> The surprising answer is "yes", it is possible.
> 
> "Bacteria vs. viruses is one of the oldest fights on Earth. Certain viruses need to infect bacteria in order to reproduce, but the bacteria do not want to be infected. How do bacteria that survive viral infection make sure that it does not happen again? Many kinds of bacteria have developed a process called CRISPR that helps them remember viruses they have seen before. CRISPR also allows bacteria to keep the virus from destroying them. While humans do not have CRISPR in their cells, they have figured out some exciting ways to use CRISPR in the lab."
> 
> https://kids.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/frym.2019.00002


Not really feasible here. Viruses don't get infected by bacteria - they are far too small and don't have any cellular machinery. They are obligate parasites. Additionally, a virus that infects a human will not infect a bacteria. I'm not aware of very many cellular receptors that humans and bacteria have in common, which would be required for viral entry into the cell.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> I am lazy to search for it now, but some time ago I posted here some paper about the immune response to SARS and MERS. They both produced just short-lived IgM antibodies (lasting only couple of months), and no long term humoral immunity. But they produced long lived memory T-cells. I am not sure how much protective the memory T cells are for reinfections. They probably help somewhat.


T cell responses are an important part of memory responses, but where antibody responses are most useful is producing what we call sterilizing immunity. What that means is that a robust antibody response can neutralize a new infection before the virus can really take hold. In contrast, T cell responses really only respond to infected cells, so if all you have is a robust memory T cell response, you are still likely to catch the virus again, and get slightly sick, but the memory T cell response will respond quicker and larger than the initial response so you will clear it very quickly. An antibody response, though, will likely prevent you from being reinfected. Having both is ideal, because frequently you don't get that best case scenario.


----------



## CnC Bartok

starthrower said:


> I go to look at the curves.


You'll find that video cameras are very small and very discrete these days......:devil:


----------



## Guest

premont said:


> In my country we do throat swabs.
> 
> I suppose the B cells are responsible for the production of the Corona virus antibodies. Virus antibodies are usually detected in the blood. I do not know how early it is possible to detect them in the run of the Co-V-2 infection.
> 
> Both ways are investigated to the outmost all over the world in these days. Serum from recovered patients contain specific antibodies, which maybe may be used to treat sick patients or maybe as a short term prophylaxis, but in the recipient these antibodies rather quickly vanish again. On the other hand vaccination (= injection of inactivated virus) stimulates the production of antibodies in the individual itself, but can only be used preventive and it takes some time after the vaccination for the individual to b able to produce his own antibodies in sufficient quantities..
> 
> Some litterature about this, here:
> 
> https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/13/covid-19-antibody-sera-arturo-casadevall/


I've not read up that much on these viruses, but it is entirely possible it is never detected in the blood. The flu virus is not detected in blood. It only infects cells of the upper respiratory tract and so is localized to the lungs. I don't know what the various tests are, but a common one is testing for seroconversion, or the presence of antibodies that react to viral proteins. Those kinds of its are usually fairly easy to adapt from one virus to the next. But they may have something else here. And I believe there are many different kinds of tests.

Transferring antibodies - also known as passive immunization - can be useful, but as we mentioned, these antibodies are fairly short -lived, and don't generate host immunity. So as a large scale treatment they aren't really practical.


----------



## Guest

Just checked. Looks like the new test fast-tracked for approval by the FDA from Thermo Fisher uses PCR to identify viral nucleic acids in samples. That is the brilliance of sequencing these days that we already have it sequenced and can set up these PCR assays. The test takes about 4 hours.


----------



## philoctetes

Individual growth curves by country on a pretty cool chart

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/infection-trajectory-see-which-countries-are-flattening-their-covid-19-curve


----------



## philoctetes

Today Sonoma joins the other "shelter in place" counties around the Bay Area... bah sez Elon, still keeping his Fremont factory open...


----------



## SixFootScowl

Someone on another web forum posted:


> On Monday I witnessed a bad parking lot incident in which a young man beat and knock down an older lady to steal her toilet paper package. He said the older lady had to go to the hospital for a broken arm and stitches. I took off after the guy ... [and] got his license plate # to give to the police.


----------



## SixFootScowl

philoctetes said:


> Individual growth curves by country on a pretty cool chart
> 
> https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/infection-trajectory-see-which-countries-are-flattening-their-covid-19-curve


United States does not look great but according to this chart, 
https://time.com/5800901/coronavirus-map/
Over half the US cases are in only three states: Washington, California, and New York. Interstate travel maybe should be curbed?


----------



## haydnguy

KenOC said:


> See my post #12, at the end.
> 
> BTW the third case in the US has just been confirmed...right here in the OC!


This was KenOC's post on Jan 26,2020.

Here is what Marketwatch is reporting today. 3/18/2020

"In the U.S., there are 6,496 cases and 114 deaths in 18 states."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/covid-19-case-tally-201436-cases-8006-deaths-2020-03-18?mod=home-page


----------



## philoctetes

so... 52 days to go from 3 to 6496 -> (6496/3)^(1/52) = 1.16 /day not good


----------



## Sad Al

The virus again proves that Sartre was right: Hell is other people


----------



## pianozach

At this point I think we actually have two crises with a common cause:

1) *Pandemic* with a high mortality rate, unknown causes of transmission, unknown incubation period, and a steady exponential rise in number of cases

2) An *economic crisis* as people are thrown out of work as bars, restaurants, casinos, gyms, theatres, convention centers, and other non-essential businesses of all kinds are shuttered. The travel and tourism industries are at a standstill. Schools and universities are closed.

On the "*Big Picture*" side the stock market in the US has become a rollover-in-progress (up down up down up down). JPMorgan projects that a recession will hit the US and European economies by July. Goldman Sachs issued a research note to clients on Sunday afternoon, revising downward the bank's forecast for U.S. economic growth.

The White House, on the other hand, through spokesman Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, is still painting a rosy picture: "Later in the year economic activity will pick up as we confront this virus."

But this weekend Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell gave what is probably the most honest and accurate assessment: When asked why the Fed hadn't released its quarterly "Summary of Economic Projections" report he responded that there is no SEP this quarter because, essentially, there is no point in making economic forecasts right now.

"The economic outlook is evolving on a daily basis," he said. "And it really is depending heavily on the spread of the virus, and the measures taken to affect it, and how long that goes on. And that's just not something that's knowable. So, actually writing down a forecast in that circumstance didn't seem to be useful. And in fact, it could have been more of an obstacle to clear communication than a help."

In the US the government didn't simply drag its feet in addressing the pandemic, it went full-blown denial until it was too late. It continues to give information that is suspect and false. The sense that our government's response is more like a drunk getting pulled over for driving 15mph on the freeway adds to the stress of helplessness and hopelessness.

So, overall, *the economy is in freefall*. If I had any money to bet, I'd put it on a series of rolling recessions.

But on smaller scale, *INDIVIDUALS*, households, and tiny businesses are feeling impacts and stresses that are off the charts. Just personally, I have a niece-in-law on a travel lockdown, an older friend on senior lockdown, a sh!tload of people on gig-economy 'furlough', bunches of folks working from home, etc.

Closing most of the nation's restaurants, bars, schools, gyms, conventions, and concerts for a month or more, effectively shutting down air travel, telling people to stay home from school and work - these measures are likely to save a lot of lives, and I support them, but they are also sure to lead to layoffs, bankruptcies, and permanent business closures.


----------



## Jacck

I don't understand why people think recessions are a bad thing. They are natural parts of an economic cycle. They allow the bubbles to burst, the unhealthy bussineses to collapse and the whole economy to rebuild and revitalize.


----------



## Totenfeier

DaveM said:


> I haven't heard this anywhere, but:
> 
> People unable to work so stuck at home.
> People stuck at home due to 'shelter in place'.
> Minimal outside sources of entertainment restaurants, theaters, bars, sports events closing.
> Likely more drinking and inhaling various substances at home.
> 
> Consequence: a lot of babies in December, January 2021 and February 2021!


From a meme: In 2033, behold...the rise of the QUARANTEENS!


----------



## pianozach

DrMike said:


> Not really feasible here. Viruses don't get infected by bacteria - they are far too small and don't have any cellular machinery. They are obligate parasites. Additionally, a virus that infects a human will not infect a bacteria. I'm not aware of very many cellular receptors that humans and bacteria have in common, which would be required for viral entry into the cell.


It's still worth looking into . . .

While "Viruses don't get infected by bacteria", bacteria do get infected by viruses. There is an interaction between the two that could potentially be exploited.

Yeah, _THAT_ sounds like the premise for yet another apocalyptic plague film, but it's not that far-fetched.

We're already seriously researching using viruses to fight viruses (Researchers have discovered that the Maraba virus, or MG1, can target and destroy the kind of HIV-infected cells that standard antiretroviral therapies can't reach).


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> I don't understand why people think recessions are a bad thing. They are natural parts of an economic cycle. They allow the bubbles to burst, the unhealthy bussineses to collapse and the whole economy to rebuild and revitalize.


*THAT* is very close to saying

_"I don't understand why people think *pandemics* are a bad thing. They are natural parts of an evolutionary cycle. They allow the overpopulated areas to empty, and the unhealthy races to collapse and the whole human race to rebuild and revitalize._

It reminds me of one of the basic premises of the 5-year story arc of *Babylon 5*, where the "older" races (The Vorlons and the Shadows) had been "guiding" the evolutionary paths of the "younger" races (including humans).

While the Vorlons could be summed up with the one word, "Order", the Shadows embraced "Chaos".

*The Vorlons* embraced a belief that freedom and chance are counter-productive if one wants to develop a society. Given freedom, the development becomes erratic and could possibly lead to undesirable results.

*The Shadows* philosophy is one that adversity makes you stronger - Strength is the only measure of success, and that strength is derived from conflict. And while conflict will always have collateral damage, the ends justify the means.


----------



## haydnguy

Jacck said:


> I don't understand why people think recessions are a bad thing. They are natural parts of an economic cycle. They allow the bubbles to burst, the unhealthy bussineses to collapse and the whole economy to rebuild and revitalize.


In economic theory that's certain true. Couldn't agree more. What I hate about it is that anytime we have one of these things in the U.S. it's the little guy who gets the shaft and the rich guy get's a bailout.


----------



## Jacck

haydnguy said:


> In economic theory that's certain true. Couldn't agree more. What I hate about it is that anytime we have one of these things in the U.S. it's the little guy who gets the shaft and the rich guy get's a bailout.


socialism for the rich, capitalism for everyone else


----------



## TxllxT

The Dutch minister of health Bruno Bruins collapsed / swooned during a live debate in the Dutch parliament on coronavirus measures.

Already people on social media are making comparisons with Wuhan scenes, where the same happened...


----------



## philoctetes

Indeed, it's the boom and bust cycle that keeps widening the wealth gap, as each bust leaves fewer survivors than before and the rest feel all the pain. I can't believe how many times I've had to say this lately. 

The US finally accepted that interest rate engineering can't pay for this panic whether "the curve" is flat or not. Unfortunately, cash programs are going to be the target of scam and abuse... the more direct the better... Dem hate tax cuts but it's one fairly unbiased way to return money to the general population.... this is all fine BUT...

As of yesterday, we can see the bailouts are coming. The Fed resurrected their Commercial Overnight Funding machinery yesterday and nobody noticed. The idea is to get $ directly to companies to keep them running... and first in line are hotels and airlines, ya know, Boeing again, who has all their present leverage tied up in stock buybacks, so this idea that the recession will be some naturally occurring Darwinian process is a joke... whoze gonna pay for that?


----------



## KenOC

“4207 new cases and 475 new deaths in Italy… COVID-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17…”

Total deaths to date in Italy should surpass total deaths in China to date tomorrow or the next day. Bear in mind that Italy has only about 5% of China's population.


----------



## premont

DrMike said:


> I've not read up that much on these viruses, but it is entirely possible it is never detected in the blood. The flu virus is not detected in blood. It only infects cells of the upper respiratory tract and so is localized to the lungs. I don't know what the various tests are, but a common one is testing for seroconversion, or the presence of antibodies that react to viral proteins.


You read the post you quote of mine a bit to fast. I did not write that virus usually is detected in the blood, but that virus *antibodies* (of course only when present) usually are detected in the blood.

Also seroconversion of course means that antibodies are present in the blood.


----------



## SixFootScowl

*U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages*


----------



## Open Book

philoctetes said:


> so... 52 days to go from 3 to 6496 -> (6496/3)^(1/52) = 1.16 /day not good


I don't understand what you have computed here, can you please explain?


----------



## philoctetes

I computed the 52nd root of the 52-day growth multiple to get the 1-day growth multiple


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> I don't understand what you have computed here, can you please explain?


I believe the formula calculates the rate of increase in coronavirus cases as 16% daily. Certainly a healthy rate (for the virus if not for humans ).


----------



## Machiavel

If it was a computer virux who shuts down the internet for a year. Millenials would commit mass suicides all over the wolrd.

Its not so they go spingbreak for the stds


----------



## Krummhorn

Locally, all public schools have shut down for about two weeks. Mind you that 6 of our school districts are currently on Spring Break so it only extends that 'break' another week. 

Local performance venues have also shut down, and just yesterday all restaurants in the city have been closed except for take out only. 

Most every church has suspended public worship services. Mine is now live-streaming two of our four services (the other two have been suspended for the time being), so I still get paid my normal salary from the church. Only the paid staff of the church is involved with making the live-stream services ... rather eerie to be playing hymns and liturgy to an empty church, but it's what we organists do in these situations. 

Our church, like others, is set up for electronic giving either by texting or automatic bank withdrawals, so the monies keep coming in, fortunately. 

Staying home more ... driving about town is so nice without much traffic. Besides work and medical, nobody has anywhere else to go.


----------



## jurianbai

daily check in and still reading.
keep healthy guys.


----------



## Open Book

philoctetes said:


> I computed the 52nd root of the 52-day growth multiple to get the 1-day growth multiple


I see what you did. You assume the growth rate is the same each day, and it has been 52 days, and you started with 3.

3 x 1.16 x 1.16... (52 of these 1.16's) = the present number of cases, 6496.

So we know that virus infection spreads at a constant rate like this?

I have a little problem with your basing it on a starting number like 3. That 3 is a wobbly number. What if there were 10 cases to start, what if 100? Then your calculated growth rate would be a bit different. These aren't actual cases in the population, only the cases that have been detected. Our ability to detect them probably wasn't very good in the beginning. It still isn't great because we're testing only people with symptoms who go for medical help.


----------



## pianozach

Krummhorn said:


> Locally, all public schools have shut down for about two weeks. Mind you that 6 of our school districts are currently on Spring Break so it only extends that 'break' another week.
> 
> Local performance venues have also shut down, and just yesterday all restaurants in the city have been closed except for take out only.
> 
> Most every church has suspended public worship services. . . .


Here in Ventura County, CA, my local school district (which announced LAST Thursday it would close March 23-27, and reassess today) announced that all schools and school activities will be closed through Monday May 4 (which would also include our scheduled Spring Break April 13-17).

As a Music Specialist, my hours are "on call", and now I'm no longer being called as my services are not needed.

7 weeks without pay.

My side hustle is musical direction and accompanying for operas and musical theatre, but all performance venues have been ordered closed. As a "gig musician" I'm merely collateral damage.

I had a nice plush Chamber Music gig scheduled for the end of June, but that may vanish too as this pandemic develops.


----------



## 13hm13

For some reason, CV19 news makes me think of the final scenes in _Amadeus_, with WAM composing the Requiem while deathly ill. Hospitals and ICUs would probably not allow one to compose ... tho' maybe an iPad with Noteflight , Musescore or Sibelius would be allowed ?????


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> I see what you did. You assume the growth rate is the same each day, and it has been 52 days, and you started with 3.
> 
> 3 x 1.16 x 1.16... (52 of these 1.16's) = the present number of cases, 6496.
> 
> So we know that virus infection spreads at a constant rate like this?
> 
> I have a little problem with your basing it on a starting number like 3. That 3 is a wobbly number. What if there were 10 cases to start, what if 100? Then your calculated growth rate would be a bit different. These aren't actual cases in the population, only the cases that have been detected. Our ability to detect them probably wasn't very good in the beginning. It still isn't great because we're testing only people with symptoms who go for medical help.


The calculation assumes exponential growth, which is the most basic model of contagen. The starting point of 3 isn't arbitrary, it is the data. If there were 10 times as many starting cases, there would be 10 times as many cases after the specified growth period assuming the exponential dependence on time. Of course it is only an estimate since, as you mention, the level of texting and testing criteria have varied over the dataset.


----------



## Room2201974

In another thread, someone said there is a Beatle song for all occasions. I think the Stones have them beat on this one however. Soon to be Number 1 with a bullet:


----------



## starthrower

The ultimate crisis hinges on how many people around the world are not considering the question in the title of this thread and altering their daily behavior accordingly. I stopped to get some gas yesterday and I observed others while standing at the pump. Two elderly people I observed were holding the dirty gas pumps with their bare hand. And both got back in their cars and just zoomed off. Maybe they used some hand sanitizer in the car or maybe they didn't? But we need to be a lot more vigilant. If things get worse the public will be restricted even more and the government will tell us when we can go shopping, etc.


----------



## Jacck

starthrower said:


> The ultimate crisis hinges on how many people around the world are not considering the question in the title of this thread and altering their daily behavior accordingly. I stopped to get some gas yesterday and I observed others while standing at the pump. Two elderly people I observed were holding the dirty gas pumps with their bare hand. And both got back in their cars and just zoomed off. Maybe they used some hand sanitizer in the car or maybe they didn't? But we need to be a lot more vigilant. If things get worse the public will be restricted even more and the government will tell us when we can go shopping, etc.


here we already have shopping hours for people 65+, 10-12am no one is allowed to shop but older people. Face masks are now mandatory everywhere in public. Though this epidemic likely cannot be stopped and almost everyone will ultimately catch the virus.


----------



## starthrower

My guess is that as things get worse there will be security at the entrances to all the shopping centers. They will be counting heads as they go in the door and when the limit is reached, the other people will have to wait. And I don't understand why these retail outlets aren't providing masks for the cashiers who get breathed on by every shopper on the way out?

Yesterday I was at Price Chopper, a grocery store here in the Northeast. I observed employees stocking shelves with bare hands. Touching every container as the placed them on the shelf. This is just plain stupid. Most grocery chains provide disinfectant wipes placed near the shopping carts but not Aldi. And they own thousands of stores.


----------



## Sad Al

I avoid all food these days. Whisky, vitamin D and Bach, that's my diet


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> My guess is that as things get worse there will be security at the entrances to all the shopping centers. They will be counting heads as they go in the door and when the limit is reached, the other people will have to wait. And I don't understand why these retail outlets aren't providing masks for the cashiers who get breathed on by every shopper on the way out?
> 
> Yesterday I was at Price Chopper, a grocery store here in the Northeast. I observed employees stocking shelves with bare hands. Touching every container as the placed them on the shelf. This is just plain stupid. Most grocery chains provide disinfectant wipes placed near the shopping carts but not Aldi. And they own thousands of stores.


what good do rubber gloves do to protect the consumer? The gloves, if used properly, might protect the person using them, no?

Also, masks for the cashiers will protect us from the cashiers a bit, not so much them from us.

Price Chopper started senior hours this morning... long lines for it (6 am to 7am) which I anticipated so I am waiting a few days.


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> here we already have shopping hours for people 65+, 10-12am no one is allowed to shop but older people. Face masks are now mandatory everywhere in public. Though this epidemic likely cannot be stopped and almost everyone will ultimately catch the virus.


They make us get up at 5am to enjoy a one hour window, 6am to 7am.


----------



## Guest

There are some additional things to say about Covid-19. The first is that the whole global economy is being upended to protect 'baby boomers', since very few younger than that cohort will die from the disease. This will cause huge and long-lasting consequences for those younger generations who are losing their jobs and standards of living from the economic disruption. And it will play out for a long time to come.

The rise of identity politics and multiculturalism has lead to a fracturing of societies at the very time that social cohesion is desperately needed; ergo, it's every man for himself and when we speak about a 'national character' in times of crisis most countries would be hard pressed to find one.

Lastly, the *'extinction rebellion' and climate activists have in reality called for exactly what we have now*; nobody flying and huge grounded fleets of aircraft about to go bankrupt, huge unemployment, next to no travel and little consumerism.

Take a real good hard look at that and see what it REALLY looks like. Far from the climate nirvana, I can assure you.


----------



## starthrower

eljr said:


> what good do rubber gloves do to protect the consumer? The gloves, if used properly, might protect the person using them, no?
> 
> Also, masks for the cashiers will protect us from the cashiers a bit, not so much them from us.
> 
> Price Chopper started senior hours this morning... long lines for it (6 am to 7am) which I anticipated so I am waiting a few days.


I suppose there are no full proof protections. Just washing hands frequently. I wouldn't want to be a cashier right now. But Aldi should be providing disinfectant wipes for thousands handling the shopping carts. I go straight to the rest room and wash my hands right after shopping.


----------



## philoctetes

Open Book said:


> I see what you did. You assume the growth rate is the same each day, and it has been 52 days, and you started with 3.
> 
> 3 x 1.16 x 1.16... (52 of these 1.16's) = the present number of cases, 6496.
> 
> So we know that virus infection spreads at a constant rate like this?
> 
> I have a little problem with your basing it on a starting number like 3. That 3 is a wobbly number. What if there were 10 cases to start, what if 100? Then your calculated growth rate would be a bit different. These aren't actual cases in the population, only the cases that have been detected. Our ability to detect them probably wasn't very good in the beginning. It still isn't great because we're testing only people with symptoms who go for medical help.


Yes the word is "noisy", the data is uncertain but it's all you have... if you don't like "3" then start with a later day and take a lower root... the worst thing to do would be to change a data value just because you don't like it

The calculation produces a geometric mean value for the daily rate over those 52 days. There is nothing wrong or deceptive about this if you simply understand what that means and how it is derived. You can, alternatively, use any continuous subset of the data over any frame of days that you like... for example, it is obvious from the graph that if you pick a later subset of say, the last 20 days up to now, that the rate will be higher... probably due to more testing

If you wanted to get real fancy we would weigh the later data more heavily in these calculations. I leave this method as a research assignment for the reader...


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> I suppose there are no full proof protections. Just washing hands frequently. I wouldn't want to be a cashier right now. But Aldi should be providing disinfectant wipes for thousands handling the shopping carts. I go straight to the rest room and wash my hands right after shopping.


Really bad job, cashier ..... maybe change pay to card only and have people place items on belt then walk around to other side to pay and grab bags

bam! supermarket cashier spared constant contact.


----------



## philoctetes

The local bakery, which is the best food in my little town, has divided labor between bagging bread and cashiering... I'm really hoping they stay open...


----------



## starthrower

Here in the US we've got thousands of drunken college kicks jamming the beaches, restaurants and hotels and the Florida governor is fine with it. Then they will all go back home not knowing how many are carrying the virus. Pretty damn foolish.


----------



## philoctetes

starthrower said:


> Here in the US we've got thousands of drunken college kicks jamming the beaches, restaurants and hotels and the Florida governor is fine with it. Then they will all go back home not knowing how many are carrying the virus. Pretty damn foolish.


The good news, for me, is that's not so true here... the river parks have been open but abandoned... we're having a wet spell right now so it remains to be seen but generally I don't see students going Spring Break crazy... maybe they are all somewhere else. Maybe it helps that there isn't a lot of dissonance about policy here like in the Southeast... in a way I can't blame Nashville as they just had a nasty tornado attack and "sheltering" is not convenient during the recovery...

Yesterday the county announced the parks will remain open by policy to encourage exercise. There is little argument in CA when it comes to outdoor exercise... we have the public space to accommodate it... the 6' distance rule is what we care about


----------



## Ingélou

We drove out for a 'socially-isolated' walk in nearby countryside, but passing our community Catholic church, we saw a notice on the door and went to investigate. 

The Catholic Bishops of England and Wales have suspended Public Masses during the crisis.
It made us feel very sad, though also relieved that the responsibility had been taken from us, as there are a number of older people in the congregation. 

Only about Day Three of our social isolation, and we're already feeling depressed. I think we'll have to factor in a couple of 'socially-isolated' walks every week ti keep ourselves going.


----------



## Strange Magic

Christabel said:


> There are some additional things to say about Covid-19. The first is that the whole global economy is being upended to protect 'baby boomers', since very few younger than that cohort will die from the disease. This will cause huge and long-lasting consequences for those younger generations who are losing their jobs and standards of living from the economic disruption. And it will play out for a long time to come.
> 
> The rise of identity politics and multiculturalism has lead to a fracturing of societies at the very time that social cohesion is desperately needed; ergo, it's every man for himself and when we speak about a 'national character' in times of crisis most countries would be hard pressed to find one.
> 
> Lastly, the *'extinction rebellion' and climate activists have in reality called for exactly what we have now*; nobody flying and huge grounded fleets of aircraft about to go bankrupt, huge unemployment, next to no travel and little consumerism.
> 
> Take a real good hard look at that and see what it REALLY looks like. Far from the climate nirvana, I can assure you.


Such a wonderful post! So many weird ideas together in one place. Is there more?


----------



## Jacck

Wuhan's virus patient numbers manipulated for Xi visit: local doctor
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...on-manipulation-of-virus-patient-numbers.html
never trust the numbers from a communist country


----------



## philoctetes

Christabel is just exercising rights guaranteed by the US Constitution... and I will be sure to exercise mine when I need to...

But honestly, I'm cracking up when I see white boomers singing "Imagine" on Twitter today and the response from outside that group is total ridicule... "not gonna stop us from taking your food away" so that's all I need to know...

With CV shutting everything down, the Green New Deal is now just a natural consequence... until we go back to living around bonfires...


----------



## DaveM

Strange Magic said:


> Such a wonderful post! So many weird ideas together in one place. Is there more?


Fox and friends can always be counted on for happy talk.


----------



## Jacck

Baltimore Mayor Begs Criminals to Stop Shooting Each Other While Coronavirus Crisis Is Going On
https://pluralist.com/baltimore-coronavirus-mayor/


----------



## Dorsetmike

Had an Email from some Tesco bigwig saying that they would close at 10pm and concentrate overnight on shelf filling for the following day and were going to try and make the period from 9am to 10am for us old and decrepit ones so would the rest of the general public honour this; a neighbour of mine, (he's a bit younger than me only just turned 80) went out early this morning and almost got trampled by the mob at Asda - maybe they didn't get the same message?

I'll have to take my chance tomorrow nearly out of milk.

One thing that occurs to me, I can see some of the logic behind the "first hour for the older citizens" but against it I wonder how we are supposed to get there in rush hour on crowded buses (2 metre separation ????????) or if driving adding to the traffic jams and the likely increased air pollution therein.

As we used to say in the air force - "If ya can't take the joke ya shouldna joined" methinks it applies to life not just the air force!


----------



## senza sordino

From the Guardian today:



> In Bergamo, a province of 1.2 million people in the Lombardy region, where 1,959 of the total deaths in the country have taken place, 4,305 people had contracted the virus by Wednesday. The death toll across the province is unclear, but the situation has become so intense that on Wednesday night the army was brought in to move 65 coffins from the cemetery in Bergamo town and take them to Modena and Bologna in Emilia-Romagna.


That means the disease has a 46% mortality rate, and 1.6% of the entire province died.


----------



## Jacck

senza sordino said:


> From the Guardian today:
> 
> That means the disease has a 46% mortality rate, and 1.6% of the entire province died.


1959/1200000 = 0.001, ie 0.1% has died. Also, Italy is one of the oldest countries in Europe. And the number of infected people is likely much higher. There is simply not enough tests. We in Czech Republic have 700 infected, out of this number just 5 have a serious condition and no one has died so far. I can see around myself, that many people suddenly have respiratory symptoms and they are not being tested. My guess is that the whole Lombardy provice is already infected and those officially tested and the dead are just a tip of the iceberg.


----------



## pianozach

starthrower said:


> Here in the US we've got thousands of drunken college kicks jamming the beaches, restaurants and hotels and the Florida governor is fine with it. Then they will all go back home not knowing how many are carrying the virus. Pretty damn foolish.


The "kids" are actually having a tough time with their "partying" as most of the bars and restaurants are closed.

If you want to witness idiocy, ignorance, and stupidity, take a gander at this video filled with "man-in-the-street" interviews of young drunks on Spring Break. You will mourn for the country's future.






.



Jacck said:


> Wuhan's virus patient numbers manipulated for Xi visit: local doctor
> https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...on-manipulation-of-virus-patient-numbers.html
> never trust the numbers from a communist country


I no longer trust the numbers from my _OWN_ country. As the government's response was delayed due to denial and incompetence, testing was also delayed, skewing the statistics.

A friend of mine has created a spreadsheet that shows the parallels in the growth of the coronavirus, comparing Italy, USA, Washington, and California. She's updating it daily, and has added Los Angeles and SF Bay Area.

My take-away from her chart:

Identical growth no matter where. They all match up when you adjust for date.

That means that you can probably accurately PREDICT the approximate number of cases and deaths right down to the day.

USA: 3/27: 27,000 cases, 2100 deaths
WA: 4/1: 27,000 cases, 2100 deaths
CA: 4/3 27,000 cases, 2100 deaths

There is a distinct difference though . . . .

Washington's restrictions today have slowed the growth in cases and deaths, as have the California restrictions.
It appears that the WA and CA restrictions have made a difference, while the national travel ban from EU seems to have NOT made any difference at all.

Here's the link

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0YHDS6_DA95Pgs rAE6LCIX0fylitC6qaqhuTU#gid=0
.



DaveM said:


> Fox and friends can always be counted on for happy talk.


*Fox and Fiends* churned out an astonishing amount of misinformation, and, sadly, our President parroted a bunch of it.

_"It's actually the safest time to fly,"_ said host *Ainsley Earhardt* on Friday March 6.

The rest of the network broadcast some headscratching stuff as well. Later in the morning on March 13 , Fox News correspondent *Geraldo Rivera* offered some advice for the virus:

_"If you can't hold your breath for 10 seconds. Everyone should do that. Hold your breath for 10 seconds. If you can hold your breath for 10 seconds then you don't have this disease."_

Fox News claimed that those warning of the danger were _"panic pushers"_, or engaged in _"mass hysteria"_, and an effort to bring down the president.

*Trish Regan*'s show on *Fox Business* was suspended after Regan offered a particularly strident avalanche of misinformation on air. As the graphic: _*"Coronavirus impeachment hoax"*_ appeared on screen, Regan claimed Democrats had created _"mass hysteria to encourage a market sell-off"_.

*Regan* added: _"Many in the liberal media [are] using [the] coronavirus to demonize and destroy the president."_

But it's the pundits and evangelicals that have been spreading the worst misinformation. *Jim Bakker* was peddling snake oil. *Jerry Falwell Jr*. called coronavirus a political _"attempt to get Trump,"_ then promoted his own conspiracy theory: _"The owner of a restaurant asked me last night. He said do you remember the North Korean leader promised us a Christmas present for America? Back in December. Could it be they got together with China and this is that present? I don't know. But it really is something strange going on."_

As of a couple of days ago, *Fox News* has 180d in their coverage, almost the same time the President did. I'm not sure if he's parroting their turnaround, or if they're mirror HIS turnaround. It doesn't matter.


----------



## Open Book

starthrower said:


> I suppose there are no full proof protections. Just washing hands frequently. I wouldn't want to be a cashier right now. But Aldi should be providing disinfectant wipes for thousands handling the shopping carts. I go straight to the rest room and wash my hands right after shopping.


If Aldi provided wipes to the public right now a few people would just steal them all.

I feel for and fear for cashiers. They come in contact with so many people. No quarantine for them. They are facing risks similar to medical personnel except they didn't sign up for that kind of thing and they get low compensation. They should wear masks and gloves even if it looks fearsome. They should be tested for the virus every so often. But they are needed and no one wants to scare them off their jobs, I guess.


----------



## senza sordino

Jacck said:


> 1959/1200000 = 0.001, ie 0.1% has died. Also, Italy is one of the oldest countries in Europe. And the number of infected people is likely much higher. There is simply not enough tests. We in Czech Republic have 700 infected, out of this number just 5 have a serious condition and no one has died so far. I can see around myself, that many people suddenly have respiratory symptoms and they are not being tested. My guess is that the whole Lombardy provice is already infected and those officially tested and the dead are just a tip of the iceberg.


Yes, of course. I'm not sure how I could have made such a simple math error. My mathematical skills are actually pretty good. Whoops.

I think it's more useful to look at stats from a region of the country, not the entire country. Because community spread will happen in a region. Here in Canada, we have as of a few hours ago 727 confirmed cases. But in BC we have 231 cases. Almost all of those cases are right here in the metropolitan region of Vancouver. So nearly 1/3 of all Canadian cases right here.


----------



## starthrower

People can't steal the wipes if they are in a dispenser bolted to the floor just inside the door. Wegmans and Price Chopper provide wipe dispensers.


----------



## SixFootScowl

starthrower said:


> People can't steal the wipes if they are in a dispenser bolted to the floor just inside the door. Wegmans and Price Chopper provide wipe dispensers.


I suppose they will pull as many as they can, stuffing them into a plastic bag, then run. Might get 10, 20, 50?


----------



## Open Book

philoctetes said:


> Yes the word is "noisy", the data is uncertain but it's all you have... if you don't like "3" then start with a later day and take a lower root... the worst thing to do would be to change a data value just because you don't like it
> 
> The calculation produces a geometric mean value for the daily rate over those 52 days. There is nothing wrong or deceptive about this if you simply understand what that means and how it is derived. You can, alternatively, use any continuous subset of the data over any frame of days that you like... for example, it is obvious from the graph that if you pick a later subset of say, the last 20 days up to now, that the rate will be higher... probably due to more testing
> 
> If you wanted to get real fancy we would weigh the later data more heavily in these calculations. I leave this method as a research assignment for the reader...


When you have noisy data should you use only two points of such data to define a curve? Two points can work if it's an ideal curve.


----------



## starthrower

Maybe in some of the poorer inner city neighborhoods, but I haven't heard of a problem in my area. My doctor's office told me people are stealing medical supplies from the examination rooms. Alcohol, swabs, etc.


----------



## KenOC

"China: for the first time since the beginning of the outbreak, there have been 0 new cases in Wuhan and in the Hubei province, and no new and no existing suspected cases in Wuhan and in Hubei."

And, as expected, Italy has surpassed China in total coronavirus deaths, although it has only 4% of China's population.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> "China: for the first time since the beginning of the outbreak, there have been 0 new cases in Wuhan and in the Hubei province, and no new and no existing suspected cases in Wuhan and in Hubei."
> 
> And, as expected, Italy has surpassed China in total coronavirus deaths, although it has only 4% of China's population.


I do not trust statistics from China.


----------



## elgar's ghost

I'm a bit perplexed by the UK stats: in total reported cases per 1m of the population the amount is quite low compared to other countries, but of those cases the death rate is higher than most countries. Any ideas?


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> I'm a bit perplexed by the UK stats: in total reported cases per 1m of the population the amount is quite low compared to other countries, but of those cases the death rate is higher than most countries. Any ideas?


yes, the people in the UK are not being tested nearly enough. My estimate is that you likely have 50-100 000 infected already, but only 3000 officialy diagnosed. For example Germany, which has done a much better job at testing, has 44/15320 = 0.3% mortality, while the UK has 144/3269=4.4% miortality. That means, that the number of infected in the UK is likely 10 times higher than the official number.


----------



## Strange Magic

pianozach's post about Fox and Friends ("Fiends!") brings to mind looking at supermarket tabloids 35 or so years ago, and seeing "actual photographs" on the cover showing George H.W. Bush walking across the flight deck of an aircraft carrier conversing with an alien being. It was right there, in black and white--photographic proof! It is disturbing that today, instead of being confined to tabloids, an entity such as Fox puts itself forward as a legitimate news source and offers equivalent material on a daily basis. And our current POTUS, himself much like an alien being, sees, believes, and widely propagates said material. Coronavirus not our only infestation, just the most recent.


----------



## KenOC

elgars ghost said:


> I'm a bit perplexed by the UK stats: in total reported cases per 1m of the population the amount is quite low compared to other countries, but of those cases the death rate is higher than most countries. Any ideas?


I'd guess that since the number of cases is still low, anomolies are likely. In the early days in Washington state's outbreak, the death rate looked like 50% or more. Things have evened out since then.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> I'd guess that since the number of cases is still low, anomolies are likely. In the early days in Washington state's outbreak, the death rate looked like 50% or more. Things have evened out since then.


these are no statistical flukes. Once you have a thousand cases, the statistical power is quite high. Most political polls are based on 1000 people. The differences are caused by differences in testing efficiency. Some countries are still lacking tests and test only the symptomatic people, not all contacts of the infected people etc.


----------



## KenOC

My wife stopped by Trader Joe’s to buy a couple of things and sent me a picture of the long line of people waiting to get into the store. She messaged later that there were two employees at the door, one to spray each incoming customers’ hands and the other to wipe down each shopping cart.


----------



## Strange Magic

*Chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee Alerted State Insiders Early and Privately*

North Carolina Senator Richard Burr gave a stark warning to select North Carolina insiders quite different from his public remarks at the same time:

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/8181...-questions-about-private-comments-on-covid-19


----------



## philoctetes

Open Book said:


> When you have noisy data should you use only two points of such data to define a curve? Two points can work if it's an ideal curve.


You've got it wrong again, in two ways - you can't fit a curve to two points, and using more data averages out noise.

If you want to do your own calculations, fine, but it appears you're not qualified to criticize mine. .


----------



## Open Book

philoctetes said:


> You've got it wrong again, in two ways - you can't fit a curve to two points, and using more data averages out noise. .


You didn't average out noise in your calculation and you used two points.

It depends on the type of curve as to whether two points will define it.


----------



## Room2201974

pianozach said:


> I do not trust statistics from China.


Yes, isn't it amazing that the day after the walking swine flu Himself doubled down on "China virus" the country of China reports "no new infections." Oh, nothing to see here folks, just an "informational coincidence."


----------



## philoctetes

Open Book said:


> You didn't average out noise in your calculation and you used two points.
> 
> It depends on the type of curve as to whether two points will define it.


My latter comment stands

Look, I assumed a geometric curve, so I got a geometric mean... so yea it depends on which two points I chose but as I told you do your own calculations... the assumption of a geometric growth curve is good and makes curve fitting easier than using polynomials... do you understand why?

Chose your own points since that's what you seem to want, and then compare to what I got... then interpret why the two are different... the number I calculated is between two points 52 days apart... using the longest baseline possible, while I know from the points in between, and the standard exponential growth model, not to fit them to a straight line...I'm not going to repeat the calculation for you using other data points, do it yourself. As I said the more recent data will show a rise in the multiplier, I don't need to repeat the calculation to know that.

One of the worst things about being a math geek is that people think I'm supposed to coach them for nothing...


----------



## Jacck

Boris Johnson 'joked' ventilator appeal could be called 'operation last gasp'
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/p...al-could-be-called-operation-last-gasp/17/03/


----------



## DaveM

Caveat emptor...


----------



## KenOC

Room2201974 said:


> Yes, isn't it amazing that the day after the walking swine flu Himself doubled down on "China virus" the country of China reports "no new infections." Oh, nothing to see here folks, just an "informational coincidence."


Not quite accurate. China's statement applied only to Wuhan and Hubei province, as was clear enough. Nationwide, China reports 34 new cases and 8 new deaths, very much in line with recent days.


----------



## DeepR

I'm having a gastroscopy at the hospital tomorrow and my girlfriend has to come as well (since I can't drive from the sedation), but she's pregnant. (Yes, I'm gonna be a dad!)
Given the current circumstances we'd rather avoid hospitals... on the other hand I've been having stomach/burping/chest pain issues for months, so it has to be looked at and who knows how long I'll have to wait if we reschedule now... 
Well this sucks. I suppose I could do it without sedation so my girlfriend can stay at home, but, oh man, yuck.......


----------



## Room2201974

Another causality of the virus:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle...er-coronavirus-pandemic/ar-BB11nVFE?ocid=AMZN


----------



## starthrower

Strange Magic said:


> North Carolina Senator Richard Burr gave a stark warning to select North Carolina insiders quite different from his public remarks at the same time:
> 
> https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/8181...-questions-about-private-comments-on-covid-19


In another news article it was revealed that while keeping the public at large in the dark concerning the dire outlook, Burr dumped 500k to a million in stock to protect himself from financial loss. The kind of move that sent poor little Martha Stewart to prison.


----------



## philoctetes

Burr? Aaron Burr? That traitor!

Seriously guys, sources would be helpful... y'all know where I get mine by now...


----------



## Guest

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BWinteresting article comparing responses in South Korea to the U.S. and how overregulation prevented us from getting tests out as quickly as they did.


----------



## philoctetes

DrMike said:


> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BWinteresting article comparing responses in South Korea to the U.S. and how overregulation prevented us from getting tests out as quickly as they did.


I read elsewhere that the tests that were first available were prone to false positives. Error rates have been conspicuously absent as a factor during all of these testing disputes, and there costs associated with both kinds of errors when you have limited treatment facilities


----------



## starthrower

philoctetes said:


> Burr? Aaron Burr? That traitor!
> 
> Seriously guys, sources would be helpful... y'all know where I get mine by now...


https://www.propublica.org/article/...ssuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness


----------



## Open Book

philoctetes said:


> My latter comment stands
> 
> Look, I assumed a geometric curve, so I got a geometric mean... so yea it depends on which two points I chose but as I told you do your own calculations... the assumption of a geometric growth curve is good and makes curve fitting easier than using polynomials... do you understand why?
> 
> Chose your own points since that's what you seem to want, and then compare to what I got... then interpret why the two are different... the number I calculated is between two points 52 days apart... using the longest baseline possible, while I know from the points in between, and the standard exponential growth model, not to fit them to a straight line...I'm not going to repeat the calculation for you using other data points, do it yourself. As I said the more recent data will show a rise in the multiplier, I don't need to repeat the calculation to know that.
> 
> One of the worst things about being a math geek is that people think I'm supposed to coach them for nothing...


Send me a bill.


----------



## philoctetes

Feb 13 is two weeks after Trump blocked flights from China... to the objections of Democrats all around... by then it was no secret at all that this was a serious problem. I was already stocking up on food by then, unlike you people who thought everything would stay open forever... bubble-conscious investors have been warning about a stock crash for months.. One does not have to wait for stock to fall to sell it... and I'm sure Burr is not the only one in government who sold wisely when the writing is on the wall... others were rushing to buy gold etc...

I'm sorry but you guys need to stop just looking around for stuff to complain about... maybe try to figure out what could be a more useful way to spend your time than just tearing down people who are busting their rears overtime to deal with it..


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> My wife stopped by Trader Joe's to buy a couple of things and sent me a picture of the long line of people waiting to get into the store. She messaged later that there were two employees at the door, one to spray each incoming customers' hands and the other to wipe down each shopping cart.


Yes.

Someone else reported that Trader Joes was only letting people in two at a time.


----------



## starthrower

Trump was downplaying the magnitude of the problem just two weeks ago. He maintained a flippant attitude until very recently before he did an about face and adopted a sober disposition. And yeah, ... he's still the president and a third of the county take him seriously.


----------



## Open Book

DeepR said:


> I'm having a gastroscopy at the hospital tomorrow and my girlfriend has to come as well (since I can't drive from the sedation), but she's pregnant. (Yes, I'm gonna be a dad!)
> Given the current circumstances we'd rather avoid hospitals... on the other hand I've been having stomach/burping/chest pain issues for months, so it has to be looked at and who knows how long I'll have to wait if we reschedule now...
> Well this sucks. I suppose I could do it without sedation so my girlfriend can stay at home, but, oh man, yuck.......


Important to get that done. I know someone who let that kind of thing go too long. Can your girlfriend just drop you off at the hospital door and pick you up there or are they going to insist they see the person giving you your ride home?


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

If everyone could just stay away from everyone else for 2 weeks, we'd have this thing done and over with, Of course, that is unrealistic as there are some necessary close interactions but by far the biggest culprit is the mass ignorance, selfishness of people.


----------



## DaveM

Trump says he knew this was a pandemic before even some experts. As apparently did a poster not far above.


----------



## philoctetes

Open Book said:


> Send me a bill.


Actually it's ok you made me think about it more precisely so you're in the clear... The point is that I'm actually eyeballing the other 50 points to verify that my geometric model is better than a straight line or any other smooth two-parameter "model"... so it's not like they aren't being used... and it produces a curve which represents a smoothing of the data points

To go one step further... you can assume a geometric curve and use a least-squares method to estimate the growth rate, which would involve as many points as you want to include..... for a statistically better fit... but that's a job for a linear algebra tool like Matlab which I don't use...


----------



## haydnguy

starthrower said:


> https://www.propublica.org/article/...ssuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness


^^^
*Senator Dumped Up to $1.6 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness
*

*Intelligence Chair Richard Burr's selloff came around the time he was receiving daily briefings on the health threat.*

This guy is in serous trouble. It's astounding how are Intelligence Committees have gone down hill.


----------



## KenOC

starthrower said:


> Trump was downplaying the magnitude of the problem just two weeks ago. He maintained a flippant attitude until very recently before he did an about face and adopted a sober disposition. And yeah, ...he's still the president and a third of the county take him seriously.


Actually Trump's approval rating is at 43%, about where it's always been.

Serious question: Looks like China's travails are about over. The coronavirus has killed just 0.000224% of its population. Is avoiding this sort of outcome worth the short- and long-term economic damage we are causing ourselves?


----------



## Open Book

TwoFlutesOneTrumpet said:


> If everyone could just stay the away from everyone else for 2 weeks, we'd have this thing done and over with, Of course, that is unrealistic as there are some necessary close interactions but by far the biggest culprit is the mass ignorance, selfishness of people.


Then we could wipe out influenza at the same time.


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> Actually Trump's approval rating is at 43%, about where it's always been.
> 
> Serious question: Looks like China's travails are about over. The coronavirus has killed just 0.000224% of its population. Is avoiding this sort of outcome worth the short- and long-term economic damage we are causing ourselves?


Which leads to the question, how much panic is enough and who else wants the responsibility for lost jobs, homes, and months or years of recovery? Was our stupid president never supposed to temper the panic at all? If not he then who?

One thing I especially like, given a lot of experience with natural events in CA, is that he is deploying commercial and military logistics... I've seen time and again how state-run relief efforts just can't mobilize and get much done efficiently...

But if you fear the military or hate businesses then you won't agree...


----------



## starthrower

Honestly, I never would have believed this country would choose to grind much of the business world to a stand still. It's an incredibly worrying situation.


----------



## philoctetes

starthrower said:


> Honestly, I never would have believed this country would choose to grind much of the business world to a stand still. It's an incredibly worrying situation.


But how did "country would choose" actually happen? It's the most spectacular mass frenzy I think I've ever seen... and making Trump a scapegoat is does not make sense of it for me...


----------



## aleazk

Sooo... this seems to be an unpopular topic right now, but it must be addressed since it's at the very core of this pandemic, and of posible future pandemics as well. Now, the 2002 SARS epidemic was caused by a virus that, according to many scientists, surely originated in one of those disgusting wild animals markets. Because of this, pretty much all experts agreed that new epidemics would come from those same sources. What measures were taken by the chinese authorities? Well, they made a cosmetic ban of wild animal trade for a couple of months and was lifted after that. So, the obvious thing happened: the current coronavirus, it seems, originated from a pangolin in the Wuhan wild animals market. Chinese society is one of the most oppresed in terms of state surveilance. The authorities never realized that wild animals markets were still thriving? Of course they knew, they allowed it! And they also knew about their danger. So, the chinese authorities, past and present, were extremelly irresponsible and cynic. To me, they are the sole responsibles of this pandemic. All the blame and condemnation should fall into them.

Considering the extreme economic damage that this is causing in western countries, what should the international community do to ensure that these markets are definitely closed? And also all the illegal trade of wild animals that goes to the industry of "chinese traditional medicine", a pseudo-science of the most infamous kind. Should the West impose economic sanctions until they show evidence that they are doing the right things? Is this even possible, considering the conspicuous role of China in the world economy?

What do you think about this issue?


----------



## haydnguy

KenOC said:


> Actually Trump's approval rating is at 43%, about where it's always been.
> 
> Serious question: Looks like China's travails are about over. The coronavirus has killed just 0.000224% of its population. Is avoiding this sort of outcome worth the short- and long-term economic damage we are causing ourselves?


I may be wrong but this argument is awfully close to the "herd mentality" thinking. Also, Elon Musk said roughly the same. Yes, we have to. The ramifications in the future could be horrible.


----------



## starthrower

It's not about scapegoating Trump. That's his game. It's about a lack of leadership. And the fact that he is truly incapable of communicating any real world, nuts and bolts information to the public. Everything is a sales pitch. Fantastic this, tremendous that, etc.

And yes the country will have to decide how long to keep business as usual shut down and at what cost.


----------



## DaveM

Anybody who isn’t aware how disconnected from the reality of this virus Trump was for the first several weeks wasn’t paying attention. To his credit, his presentation at the task force press conferences has improved in the last few days. Somebody finally got to him and told him he was shooting himself in the foot.

Fwiw, there are some drug treatment possibilities coming out of China, South Korea and France that show some promise. My guess is that they might be useful before a vaccine is available.


----------



## philoctetes

aleazk said:


> Sooo... this seems to be an unpopular topic right now, but it must be addressed since it's at the very core of this pandemic, and of posible future pandemics as well. Now, the 2002 SARS epidemic was caused by a virus that, according to many scientists, surely originated in one of those disgusting wild animals markets. Because of this, pretty much all experts agreed that new epidemics would come from those same sources. What measures were taken by the chinese authorities? Well, they made a cosmetic ban of wild animal trade for a couple of months and was lifted after that. So, the obvious thing happened: the current coronavirus, it seems, originated from a pangolin in the Wuhan wild animals market. Chinese society is one of the most oppresed in terms of state surveilance. The authorities never realized that wild animals markets were still thriving? Of course they knew, they allowed it! And they also knew about their danger. So, the chinese authorities, past and present, were extremelly irresponsible and cynic. To me, they are the sole responsibles of this pandemic. All the blame and condemnation should fall into them.
> 
> Considering the extreme economic damage that this is causing in western countries, what should the international community do to ensure that these markets are definitely closed? And also all the illegal trade of wild animals that goes to the industry of "chinese traditional medicine", a pseudo-science of the most infamous kind. Should the West impose economic sanctions until they show evidence that they are doing the right things? Is this even possible, considering the conspicuous role of China in the world economy?
> 
> What do you think about this issue?


You are pointing in the right direction. Unfortunately the US media, in which China has a huge share, is doing all in its power to prevent this discussion with accusations of racism...

It's dangerous territory just like of lot of other taboo topics nowadays... I am simply forbidden to reference my own experience in a society which is obsessed with controlling information...


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

The country cannot decide when to retreat from its collective folly . Hope for a good-natured rebellion . By damn , we shall gather freely and peacefully .


----------



## philoctetes

haydnguy said:


> I may be wrong but this argument is awfully close to the "herd mentality" thinking. Also, Elon Musk said roughly the same. Yes, we have to. The ramifications in the future could be horrible.


Elon Musk is stupidly defying orders in Fremont to shut down his factory, I would not want him calling the shots right now...


----------



## philoctetes

starthrower said:


> It's not about scapegoating Trump. That's his game. It's about a lack of leadership. And the fact that he is truly incapable of communicating any real world, nuts and bolts information to the public. Everything is a sales pitch. Fantastic this, tremendous that, etc.
> 
> And yes the country will have to decide how long to keep business as usual shut down and at what cost.


Well, I think you just scapegoated him again.


----------



## aleazk

philoctetes said:


> You are pointing in the right direction. Unfortunately the US media, in which China has a huge share, is doing all in its power to prevent this discussion with accusations of racism...
> 
> It's dangerous territory just like of lot of other taboo topics nowadays... I am simply forbidden to reference my own experience in a society which is obsessed with controlling information...


Indeed. That "racism" thing is PC b.ulls.hit taken to the extreme. This has nothing to do with racism, these are the plain facts. _Chinese_ scientists were the first to sequence the virus' DNA and to notice the pangolin conexion. Chinese scientists were the first to alert about the dangers of wild animals trade and consumption. Besides, nobody is blaming the chinese society, since the ones that have, and had, the power to so something about this are, were, the authorities. The authorities of an extremely repressive and authoritarian regime.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Actually Trump's approval rating is at 43%, about where it's always been.
> 
> Serious question: Looks like China's travails are about over. The coronavirus has killed just 0.000224% of its population. Is avoiding this sort of outcome worth the short- and long-term economic damage we are causing ourselves?


It *"Looks like China's travails are about over"*?

Well, yes, according to the Chinese government. But they've been pretty opaque about this whole thing all along, just as our President has been.

I distrust "information" from them both.

Although, if I had to chose, I'd say I mistrust Trump far more.


----------



## starthrower

philoctetes said:


> Well, I think you just scapegoated him again.


No, I didn't. My comments were not specific to the pandemic. I'm stating a fact. The guy is the king of bullsh#tters. It's pretty much a universal truth at this point. But back to the subject and hand...


----------



## Open Book

aleazk said:


> Sooo... this seems to be an unpopular topic right now, but it must be addressed since it's at the very core of this pandemic, and of posible future pandemics as well. Now, the 2002 SARS epidemic was caused by a virus that, according to many scientists, surely originated in one of those disgusting wild animals markets. Because of this, pretty much all experts agreed that new epidemics would come from those same sources. What measures were taken by the chinese authorities? Well, they made a cosmetic ban of wild animal trade for a couple of months and was lifted after that. So, the obvious thing happened: the current coronavirus, it seems, originated from a pangolin in the Wuhan wild animals market. Chinese society is one of the most oppresed in terms of state surveilance. The authorities never realized that wild animals markets were still thriving? Of course they knew, they allowed it! And they also knew about their danger. So, the chinese authorities, past and present, were extremelly irresponsible and cynic. To me, they are the sole responsibles of this pandemic. All the blame and condemnation should fall into them.
> 
> Considering the extreme economic damage that this is causing in western countries, what should the international community do to ensure that these markets are definitely closed? And also all the illegal trade of wild animals that goes to the industry of "chinese traditional medicine", a pseudo-science of the most infamous kind. Should the West impose economic sanctions until they show evidence that they are doing the right things? Is this even possible, considering the conspicuous role of China in the world economy?
> 
> What do you think about this issue?


Even the authoritarian Chinese government would probably have a tough time stopping demand for by-products from wildlife. I have wondered why the Chinese populace can't just be educated that their animal-derived medicines e.g. tiger parts have no value and that their demands for exotic foods are driving wild species to extinction. But it's so deeply a part of their culture it would probably be like getting Americans to stop eating beef.

This is a thoughtful post on a certain aspect of the pandemic, I don't know why you would think it's an unpopular subject. I did not know they had traced the virus to pangolins, which are used for meat in China and are going extinct all over the world thanks to illegal poaching. Yes, this would be a good time to put international pressure on China to stop this kind of thing and environmental groups all over the world would get on board with that.


----------



## philoctetes

philoctetes said:


> To go one step further... you can assume a geometric curve and use a least-squares method to estimate the growth rate, which would involve as many points as you want to include..... for a statistically better fit... but that's a job for a linear algebra tool like Matlab which I don't use...


Suddenly thought of the geometric curve as a harmonic frequency curve and how this LS idea might apply in a way to tuning certain instruments to that curve... any thoughts on that OB?


----------



## TwoFlutesOneTrumpet

Open Book said:


> Then we could wipe out influenza at the same time.


Yep, two for one.


----------



## philoctetes

So much for "universal truth"... squandered... what's left after that in the hall of opinion?


----------



## Metalkitsune

Also on the TP thing.

I think i remember back in the days when stores had stockrooms.
s and there was such a thing as reserves of stock in the back. Stores were called stores because that was the building where the community's store of food was. Store as in storage. Store as in: we have a large store of gunpowder** here. **Or beans, or bullets, or candles, or flour, or potatoes, or castor oil, or whatever....



But none of that exists anymore because we have Just In Time Supply Chain Management instead.


----------



## AeolianStrains

philoctetes said:


> Well, I think you just scapegoated him again.


Says the game who said Dems hate tax breaks.

Isn't there some rule about no politics you guys are unable to follow? Have none of you any self-control?


----------



## philoctetes

AeolianStrains said:


> Says the game who said Dems hate tax breaks.
> 
> Isn't there some rule about no politics you guys are unable to follow? Have none of you any self-control?


O c'mon, this is not bad... I feel no personal animosity in this discussion and I hope nobody else does... and it's not a good time to be blocking a little discussion...


----------



## philoctetes

What I can do without is sideline sniping and chains of over-reaction...


----------



## starthrower

It's like trying to discuss a war without politics. Absurd and impossible.


----------



## philoctetes

Out for exercise... good luck to y'all we need it


----------



## KenOC

Some interesting data: Washington state had the first confirmed coronavirus case in the US on Jan. 21. It has an excellent and reliable case count and has done extensive testing. Here are some takeaways.

- Out of almost 21,000 tests, 93% have been negative and 7% have been positive.

- Currently there have been 1,376 cases and 74 deaths. 60 of these deaths occurred in King County, and well over half of those were associated with a single assisted living home.

- All deaths have occurred in cases aged 40 and up, with the fatality rate increasing with age above that (as expected).

- Females lead males in cases and, more substantially, in deaths. This is contrary to China's experience and may have to do with the gender balance at that assisted living home mentioned above (my speculation).

The data and some discussion can be found *here*.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> - Females lead males in cases and, more substantially, in deaths. This is contrary to China's experience and may have to do with the gender balance at that assisted living home mentioned above (my speculation).


Also may have a lot to do with 50-60% of males as smokers in China.


----------



## DaveM

The cause of coronavirus deaths appears to be the pneumonia caused by the virus in people with serious cardiopulmonary illnesses or the virus pneumonia followed by the so-called cytokine storm or acute cytokine release syndrome where the immune system overreacts which can take out people with less serious pre-existing conditions or finally, virus-caused pneumonia complicated by bacterial pneumococcal pneumonia. 

People who haven’t had their Pneumovax 23 (PPSV23) vaccine and are in the age-group or a health situation where it is indicated, should consider getting it sooner than later.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> Also may have a lot to do with 50-60% of males as smokers in China.


Yes, there has been discussion about smoking increasing the susceptibility of lungs to coronavirus-induced pneumonia. We'll know more about this in the fullness of time (love that phrase!)


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> It *"Looks like China's travails are about over"*?
> 
> Well, yes, according to the Chinese government. But they've been pretty opaque about this whole thing all along, just as our President has been.
> 
> I distrust "information" from them both.
> 
> Although, if I had to chose, I'd say I mistrust Trump far more.


Seriously? You mistrust Trump more than the authoritarian regime that lied us all into this pandemic that is crushing global economies and silenced everybody who tried to sound the alarm? Is your Trump Derangement that bad that you can't make that distinction? I don't know what is worse, this president, or how utterly unhinged the "Resistance" to him is.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> Then we could wipe out influenza at the same time.


Never happen. Influenza also infects other species.


----------



## starthrower

*In a tabletop exercise days before an untested new president took power, officials briefed the incoming administration on a scenario remarkably like the one he faces now.*

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/...ario-pandemic-132797?utm_source=pocket-newtab

And it pretty much fell on deaf ears.


----------



## KenOC

It seems to me that the US responses to the coronavirus are currently very much on point. The feds are taking wise measures, and even regimes I dislike (are you listening, California?) are ordering measures that hopefully will have positive results. Nothing much there to complain about, regardless of how violently the squawking heads here attack their supposed enemies.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> *In a tabletop exercise days before an untested new president took power, officials briefed the incoming administration on a scenario remarkably like the one he faces now.*
> 
> https://www.politico.com/news/2020/...ario-pandemic-132797?utm_source=pocket-newtab
> 
> And it pretty much fell on deaf ears.


*gasp* Do you mean to tell me that - in the totally unbiased opinion of former Obama administration officials - the Trump administration didn't take their 3-hour war game of am influenza outbreak seriously, and that is why we are now where we are? This from an administration who led about the Benghazi attacks to cover for the fact that they left Americans high and dry to be killed while Obama was in Vegas and later tried to play it off as being caused by some stupid internet video nobody had seen?


----------



## Guest

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/world/asia/china-ren-zhiqiang.html
The Chinese government is still making critics of their Wuhan coronavirus cover-up disappear.


----------



## starthrower

DrMike said:


> *gasp* Do you mean to tell me that - in the totally unbiased opinion of former Obama administration officials - the Trump administration didn't take their 3-hour war game of am influenza outbreak seriously, and that is why we are now where we are? This from an administration who led about the Benghazi attacks to cover for the fact that they left Americans high and dry to be killed while Obama was in Vegas and later tried to play it off as being caused by some stupid internet video nobody had seen?


It was just required protocol to pass along this information to the incoming administration. And as was also noted, many Trump appointees have been people of no experience. So incompetence and a high turnover rate hasn't made for a capable administration. But no matter, people around the world are behaving stupidly so the virus will continue to spread like wild fire.


----------



## KenOC

Chloroquinine phosphate is touted by Trump and Elon Musk for treating the coronavirus. It has long been used in aquariums to keep things nice for the fishies. But now its online price has gone from $10 to $400+. *Whatever the market will bear!*


----------



## tdc

As I said earlier in this thread I still think Covid-19 is not what it is being purported to be. Lets not panic and in doing so make fear based decisions with our lower reptilian brains. That is how the media uses fear as a tool for control. Fear tends to shut down higher-thinking functions, just look at how it is making people act crazy already.

The toilet paper thing I think is symbolic. People are in a sense crapping themselves and making silly-fear based decisions over this hype.

Stay calm and think about this rationally, and whatever you do, don't, don't, don't, don't believe the hype. Wahaahaoo.

*Stunning insights into the Corona-panic by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg*


----------



## tdc

THE TRUTH BEHIND CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC, COVID-19 LOCKDOWN & THE ECONOMIC CRASH | LIVE WITH DAVID ICKE


----------



## tdc

Italy coronavirus: new explosive information 
by Jon Rappoport

March 19, 2020

A very brief update. Read this carefully. Many people who were diagnosed as "coronavirus cases" in Italy, and then died, were almost certainly put on antiviral drugs. As you'll see, below, a significant percentage of these people had prior heart conditions or high blood pressure. But at least one of the antiviral drugs, called ribavirin, carries this VERY RELEVANT warning, from cardiosmart.org: "Ribavirin may decrease the number of red blood cells in your body. This is called anemia and it can be life-threatening in people who have heart disease or circulation problems." High blood pressure is a circulatory problem. Understand? Get it? LIFE-THREATENING. So how many coronavirus patients have been killed by the administering of ribavirin?
And with THAT, let's jump in…because there's more. Much more.

For those people who have any belief in the coronavirus…
Here's the basic situation: the Italian health agencies are reporting escalating COV deaths-big fear-story out front…
But in the background, other Italian government researchers are combing through patient records, to take a much closer look…to see whether people are dying from the virus or other more obvious causes.
Are people dying coincidentally WITH the virus, or BECAUSE OF the virus? Is the virus a mere harmless passenger in the body, or is it the driving force?

The Italian results are astonishing, to understate it by a mile.

Bloomberg News has the story: 3/18, "99 percent of those whose died from virus had other illness, Italy says":
"More than 99% [!] of Italy's coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country's national health authority."
"The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country's coronavirus fatalities [so far, because it's slow work], finding that just three victims [!!], or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology [disease]. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions."
"More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease."
"The average age of those who've died from the virus in Italy is 79.5 [!!!]. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy's victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions."

BANG.

Average age of those who've died: 79.5. Are you kidding? Lots of prior medical conditions, weakened immune systems, and what this emerging study isn't saying: all these people had obviously been treated for those prior conditions with toxic medical drugs. Furthermore, once they'd been diagnosed with coronavirus, chances are many of them were put on highly toxic antiviral drugs.

Thus delivering the final blow.

Imagining the coronavirus was the CAUSE of death would be a ridiculous fantasy. But these people are counted as "coronavirus deaths" by the other Italian reporting agencies, who are jacking up the numbers.
Does this remind you of any other reports I've been detailing? The elderly people with obvious prior diseases who died in Australia; and the elderly people who were diagnosed as coronavirus cases in the state of Washington-all living in a long-term-care nursing home?

Getting the picture? This death-numbers con-aside from covering up the real causes of death, including MEDICAL-is the forward spear being used to justify locking down and wrecking economies all over the world right now, and that means attacking the people in any way connected to those economies who have to work to make a living.

There are statistical vampires at work, using the elderly and sick and dying to feed numbers to health agencies around the planet. Those agencies tap their press contacts, and horror reports emerge, and the unsuspecting public, in economic lockdowns, sit in front of the tube and watch these reports, and inhale the cooked-up fear.
Turn your mind to the highest setting, because nothing is riding on this whole deal except the immediate future of humanity.
And again, cardiosmart.org: "Ribavirin may decrease the number of red blood cells in your body. This is called anemia and it can be life-threatening in people who have heart disease or circulation problems."

https://nomorefakenews.com/


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Chloroquinine phosphate is touted by Trump and Elon Musk for treating the coronavirus. It has long been used in aquariums to keep things nice for the fishies. But now its online price has gone from $10 to $400+. *Whatever the market will bear!*


Those who overpay for that form of chloroquine will be wrong twice over. Not only is it not for human consumption, but even if it were the medical grade drug it would not be the one that has had the most interesting results in France and China. Chloroquine has a worrisome side-effect profile. On the other hand, hydroxychloroquine, (aka Plaquenil) has been used for years (not as much these days) as a Rheumatoid Arthritis drug and is currently used for Lupus. It has a relatively low side-effect profile and in vitro is more potent against coronavirus than chloroquine.


----------



## DaveM

tdc said:


> Average age of those who've died: 79.5. Are you kidding? Lots of prior medical conditions, weakened immune systems, and what this emerging study isn't saying: all these people had obviously been treated for those prior conditions with toxic medical drugs. Furthermore, once they'd been diagnosed with coronavirus, chances are many of them were put on highly toxic antiviral drugs.
> 
> Thus delivering the final blow.
> 
> Imagining the coronavirus was the CAUSE of death would be a ridiculous fantasy. But these people are counted as "coronavirus deaths" by the other Italian reporting agencies, who are jacking up the numbers.
> Does this remind you of any other reports I've been detailing? The elderly people with obvious prior diseases who died in Australia; and the elderly people who were diagnosed as coronavirus cases in the state of Washington-all living in a long-term-care nursing home?
> 
> Getting the picture? This death-numbers con-aside from covering up the real causes of death, including MEDICAL-is the forward spear being used to justify locking down and wrecking economies all over the world right now, and that means attacking the people in any way connected to those economies who have to work to make a living.


There is so much misinformation in there that I don't even know where to start. In a post above I listed the 3 main causes of deaths which apply to both the elderly and those younger than 70 that do pass away. If an elderly patient contracts coronavirus and dies of heart failure, a heart attack or whatever secondary to relative hypoxia because the lungs are weakened from pneumonia then the final cause of death may have been whatever the terminal event was, but the main cause of death was the coronavirus since it was what led to everything else.

As for the 'toxic drugs': When a determination is made that a patient is in danger of death, any drugs that may reverse the process are tried. And it is the family of the patient that will support anything that can be done or given when they know they may lose a loved one. This is true in the case of several terminal diseases.


----------



## arpeggio

I mentioned the following in another forum and was not surprised at the heat I took.

I had an interesting discussion with my wife concerning the virus.

For over forty years she worked for the United States Government as an IT specialist. She spent twenty-five years with the Department of the Army and the last fifteen years working for the Department of Justice. As a senior manager in the Department of Justice she worked on and signed off on plans on how to deal with the outbreak of a virus like Corona. She knows of plans that were developed by the Department of Defense decades ago in order to deal with such a crisis. As far as she is concerned any claims by the current administration that we were caught by surprise are completely bogus. The Trump Administration was more concerned about tax breaks for the wealthy than preparing for a potential pandemic.


----------



## science

arpeggio said:


> I mentioned the following in another forum and was not surprised at the heat I took.
> 
> I had an interesting discussion with my wife concerning the virus.
> 
> For over forty years she worked for the United States Government as an IT specialist. She spent twenty-five years with the Department of the Army and the last fifteen years working for the Department of Justice. As a senior manager in the Department of Justice she worked on and signed off on plans on how to deal with the outbreak of a virus like Corona. She knows of plans that were developed by the Department of Defense decades ago in order to deal with such a crisis. As far as she is concerned any claims by the current administration that we were caught by surprise are completely bogus. The Trump Administration was more concerned about tax breaks for the wealthy than preparing for a potential pandemic.


It's clear that at least some people in the US government knew what was likely to happen and basically didn't care.

But also, a lot of our problems right now -- no one being able to afford to the hospital, so few people trusting the government or medical experts -- have been brewing for decades.


----------



## Kieran

KenOC said:


> Chloroquinine phosphate is touted by Trump and Elon Musk for treating the coronavirus. It has long been used in aquariums to keep things nice for the fishies. But now its online price has gone from $10 to $400+. *Whatever the market will bear!*


A hopeful article about it here:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...OISou99WozbS0P4wkMYN6UaQ1o#Echobox=1584647457


----------



## Judith

Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?


----------



## TxllxT

Important news concerning the origin of SARS 2: It is NOT man-made in a biolab https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9


----------



## Rogerx

Judith said:


> Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
> Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
> Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?


No, you are not, we can only do shopping in my village, the rest is closed .No contact with family and friends as we living in the most dangerous area.


----------



## starthrower

I'm not even thinking about the pleasures in life right now. The way this virus is spreading, I'm just worried about the world's systems overloading and collapsing. And the health care workers getting infected. Supply chains are already over taxed and headed towards depletion. It's going to get really bad over the next several weeks.


----------



## Strange Magic

Strange Magic said:


> North Carolina Senator Richard Burr gave a stark warning to select North Carolina insiders quite different from his public remarks at the same time:
> 
> https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/8181...-questions-about-private-comments-on-covid-19


More about this story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51976484


----------



## SixFootScowl

DaveM said:


> Also may have a lot to do with 50-60% of males as smokers in China.


Glad I quit smoking 30 years ago!


----------



## SixFootScowl

KenOC said:


> It seems to me that the US responses to the coronavirus are currently very much on point. The feds are taking wise measures, and even regimes I dislike (are you listening, California?) are ordering measures that hopefully will have positive results. Nothing much there to complain about, regardless of how violently the squawking heads here attack their supposed enemies.


So long as we can get food, have water and electric, *and TP*, lets _*hunker down*_ and wait it out.


----------



## Totenfeier

Random, non-scientific thoughts:

1. I was feeling really, really besieged Wednesday evening, but I got out to the dump with trash yesterday and went grocery shopping; many people out and about in my community encouraging one another (we are still a rural non-hotspot), so I felt better, not least of all because...

2. There, splashed all across the front of the National Enquirer, the headline "Coronavirus Cures Found! Miracle pill and kitchen remedies that really Work!" (Our Resident of the US is the number one "miracle pill," to be sure).

3. We need a snappier, more attention-getting name than Covid-19 to bring it home to the spring break kids; "The Black Death" was good, but a bit outdated. Suggestions are welcome;I'm favoring "The Reaper King" myself ("corona" and all), with appropriate artwork. Also, every report and presser about the disease should open with a verse or two of Queen's "Another One Bites the Dust" ("Hey! We're gonna get you too!...").


----------



## Guest

arpeggio said:


> I mentioned the following in another forum and was not surprised at the heat I took.
> 
> I had an interesting discussion with my wife concerning the virus.
> 
> For over forty years she worked for the United States Government as an IT specialist. She spent twenty-five years with the Department of the Army and the last fifteen years working for the Department of Justice. As a senior manager in the Department of Justice she worked on and signed off on plans on how to deal with the outbreak of a virus like Corona. She knows of plans that were developed by the Department of Defense decades ago in order to deal with such a crisis. As far as she is concerned any claims by the current administration that we were caught by surprise are completely bogus. The Trump Administration was more concerned about tax breaks for the wealthy than preparing for a potential pandemic.


Yes. And when the earth is finally hit by a large meteor there will be any number of people coming out of the woodwork claiming they had sounded the alarm for years about meteor preparedness but nobody listened.

We are always at risk of a pandemic. Given the situation the entire world is in, to single out the U.S. As being unusually unprepared seems a bit absurd. Show me the last major crisis where it was handled brilliantly.

I have no time for these stories of, "so and so, a very close person to me, said that they knew before this started that all this would happen."

Mistakes have been made all across the board. Nobody is denying that. Buy we see this every time a disaster occurs - all the people coming out of the woodwork claiming to have been Jeremiah warning of the upcoming destruction, and why didn't anybody take them seriously? Think it's as easy as that? The social security insolvency crisis has been a slow moving train wreck for years. No sudden crisis that could hit at any moment. What have politicians done? Promised to not touch it.


----------



## schigolch

The last major crisis that was handled brilliantly?...

Maybe the coronavirus outbreak in China, back in 2020?.


----------



## Varick

I am so much more afraid of the reaction of this virus than the actual virus. People need to understand a few things.

ANYONE, and I mean ANYONE who wants to spout mortality rates, infectious rates, symptom rates, etc, is only GUESSING. We know NOTHING so far. No where in the world are there enough test kits for those showing symptoms to see if they test positive. Secondly, NO ONE has even done a controlled test (ie: random on the street testing of 1,000 or so people). So, we have absolutely NO IDEA about
1. How many people are carriers
2. How many people who are carriers who are symptomatic or not.

Without that first number all other numbers are irrelevant. We can have absolutely no idea what the infection rate is, the symptomatic rate is, and certainly not know the mortality rate. EVERYTHING is conjecture at this point.

I am not concerned at all about "positive" results of carrier. What if 90% of the population are carriers (like Herpes simplex 1) but only .01% are symptomatic, and only 3% from those .01% die from it? Is it really that bad then? And of those 3%, how many have pre-existing conditons, respitory conditions, how old are they?? etc etc etc.

Here's what we do know. What the economic toll is from shutting civilization down. What if the mental, emotional (which often manifests in physical) health from joblessness, hopelessness, and financial ruin far exceed the damage done by this actual virus. What about the suicide rate that will most definitely increase from people losing everything from economic disaster?

A very wise saying says that when you are dealing with a known and an unknown simultaneously, always work and go on the known.

Again, we know NOTHING about this virus outside of a bunch of "experts" spouting off irrelevant stats because there is NO BASE LINE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. "Experts" have knowledge about particular subjects. It doesn't mean they have good advice about what to do with such knowledge. That takes wisdom. Out of all the "experts" that I have followed, listened, and read through the decades on myriad subjects, VERY FEW of them have any wisdom, yet the herds hang on every word as if they are gods.

Calm down everyone, this will probably go as every other scare has in my lifetime. It sure has followed the same pattern so far:

1. Something new happens
2. Media find out, and blow it way out of proportion scaring the hell out of everyone with partial or wrong information, mostly obtained by "experts"
3. Because everyone goes into a panic, politicians and organizations completely overreact and overcompensate to avert said disaster and doom.
4. When the dust settles and everything goes back to normal, everyone realizes it was mostly much ado about nothing, but by then the damage is done. People's lives are ruined, industries have collapsed, or been badly damaged, gobs and gobs of money has been lost and wasted, but by then it's too late.

We haven't reached step four yet, but I do not believe we are too far from it (a few months max). SARS, H1N1, Bird flu, West Nile virus, Mad Cow, Listeria all followed the same patterns.

And before the idiots jump on and say that I am diminishing those who have already died or who have died from all the other events listed above, I am not. Every unexpected death is a tragedy. But we always have to ask ourselves before we do ANYTHING: What is the cost?

But then again, maybe I am wrong and this will not follow the same pattern and this will be the second coming of the Spanish Flu (God forbid). No one knows. All we can do, is look for patterns and act accordingly. Good luck and good health to everyone!

V


----------



## Guest

schigolch said:


> The last major crisis that was handled brilliantly?...
> 
> Maybe the coronavirus outbreak in China, back in 2020?.


This is in jest, right? The country that covered it up? That silenced scientists and doctors and allowed it to go widespread before they even acknowledged it existed, and who still abduct anybody who criticizes the government over the response? Who are now claiming it was manufactured by the U.S. military?


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> More about this story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51976484


I think Burr and Loeffler (and Feinstein, for that matter) should be investigated over this and have it determined whether this was, in fact, insider trading. But let's put this in context. Burr's transaction took place on February 13th? It's not like the coronavirus was an unknown at that point. I was on a business trip to Montreal from January 27th to January 30th - two weeks before that - and as I was returning to the U.S. on the 30th, was told to expect very long lines at the airports for all international travel and that we would be questioned whether we had been to China. The response to this virus was ramping up at least 2 weeks before Burr's transaction. I'm sure there were lots of people starting to look at their investments at that point as we started getting more and more information regarding what was happening in China.


----------



## starthrower

A history of hand washing. The novel idea was met with much resistance, even from doctors.
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/...story-of-handwashing?utm_source=pocket-newtab


----------



## Rangstrom

Don't expect any real penalties from the Senate insider trading. They did pass a law during the Obama administration, but it has been watered down since then. Maybe a slap on the wrist, if you could get Barr to do anything. The only true judgment will come in the voter's booth.


----------



## Guest

Amid all the criticism of the Trump administration over the response in the U.S. (and don't get me wrong, I DO think a lot of it is justified), let's keep in mind how the World Health Organization (WHO) has handled this from the beginning, trusting the information that China was feeding them:

A tweet sent out by WHO on January 14th


> "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China."


 In fact, Chinese doctors knew back in late December that it could be spread human-to-human, but the Chinese government was suppressing that information and imprisoning anybody who spread it.

This tweet from WHO on January 23rd


> "For the moment, WHO does not recommend any broader restrictions on travel or trade. We recommend exit screening at airports as part of a comprehensive set of containment measures."


 How many sick people got on airplanes with this reassurance?

And they are still trusting the Chinese government. This tweet from today from the WHO director-general


> "For the first time, China has reported no domestic #COVID19 cases yesterday. This is an amazing achievement, which gives us all reassurance that the coronavirus can be beaten."


Now I'm not one for conspiracy mongering, but what, exactly, would lead anybody to believe that we can trust a single shred of information coming from the Chinese government? They claim the death toll in Italy has now surpassed that in China. Only based on the numbers the Chinese have given us. I think it is entirely possible that the Chinese are still vastly underreporting both cases and mortalities, and that were we to have all the correct information, Italy might not actually look like an outlier compared to China. I don't trust anything coming out of China. The one thing that does give me hope is what they were able to do in South Korea - because I can trust those numbers.


----------



## Guest

Rangstrom said:


> Don't expect any real penalties from the Senate insider trading. They did pass a law during the Obama administration, but it has been watered down since then. Maybe a slap on the wrist, if you could get Barr to do anything. The only true judgment will come in the voter's booth.


Yeah - and how many tax cheats did the Obama administration try to employ?

Crooked politicians - the hell you say? Always amazes me how much this surprises people.


----------



## starthrower

Listening to Trump's latest press conference he is still referring to Covid-19 as the Chinese virus. Does he think this is a wise thing to say? Sure, China bears much responsibility but this is just petty and unprofessional coming from the president of the United States.


----------



## Sad Al

Perhaps it's the American virus.


----------



## erki

BTW this old mantra: Time is money, doesn't apply suddenly. Time is worthless drag today.


----------



## pianozach

AeolianStrains said:


> Says the game who said Dems hate tax breaks.
> 
> Isn't there some rule about no politics you guys are unable to follow? Have none of you any self-control?





starthrower said:


> It's like trying to discuss a war without politics. Absurd and impossible.


Exactly.

We cannot discuss the pandemic without its associated topics, such as it's severe impact on local, regional, national, and worldwide economics. Likewise, the responses to the pandemic by the public AND by our leaders is part of the conversation.

Trump was downplaying the pandemic "BIGLY" two weeks ago, calling it a Democrat "hoax", stating that the cases will go from 16 "to almost zero", and "It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear".

Or THIS whopper: "Anyone who wants a test can get one."

On February 25, Trump promised that a vaccine would be available soon. "Now they have it, they have studied it, they know very much, in fact, we're very close to a vaccine."

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the US was the most prepared country in the world.

The president has misled the public on the number of testing kits, the virus's death rate, and a possible vaccine.

When he finally starting taking the threat seriously, he continued to bungle his claims about the government's response to it: He stated that all travel and trade from Europe would be banned, that major insurance companies would cover treatment for Covid-19 free of charge.

Well, nothing exposes his incompetence than his own words, so look at this -

_"Now, this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it is very mild... So if, you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better and then, when you do have a death like you had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California, I believe you had one in New York, you know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4 percent, which is a very high number, as opposed to a fraction of 1 percent."_

He hasn't a clue what he's talking about. He just opens his mouth and it's stream-of-consciousness performance art.

In 2018 he ordered that funding be cut to the agencies and departments that handle pandemics because he didn't want people just standing around doing nothing while collecting paychecks. And the White House remains committed to cutting funding to fight potential pandemics. When confronted in a congressional hearing about a 15 percent cut of $1.2 billion to the CDC and a $35 million decrease to the Infectious Diseases Rapid Response Reserve Fund's annual contribution in the White House's proposed *2021 budget*, acting director of the White House Office of Management and Budget Russ Vought defended the proposed cuts.

A couple of days ago, in a conference call with the Governors of the individual states he pretty much told them to step it up and start shopping for ventilators and masks themselves.

So . . . the US response to this pandemic was inept from the start, and continues to be a cesspool void of leadership.


----------



## atsizat

It is far from being serious in my eyes. Corona is a joke indeed in my eyes.

Media made a big deal over a simple virus. Funny how they closed everywhere.

I prayed God for corona to get me. Lol.


----------



## Sad Al

Words and words and words. Why don't you become enlightened by the wisdom of Peräsmies. His sole message was:

Remember, children - violence is not a solution to problems, but alcohol is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peräsmies

Cheers!


----------



## philoctetes

Sad Al said:


> Words and words and words. Why don't you become enlightened by the wisdom of Peräsmies. His sole message was:
> 
> Remember, children - violence is not a solution to problems, but alcohol is.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peräsmies
> 
> Cheers!


Home invaders due in ~2-4 weeks. Gotta stay sober.


----------



## Jacck

Varick said:


> But we always have to ask ourselves before we do ANYTHING: What is the cost? ... All we can do, is look for patterns and act accordingly.
> V


What is the cost of doing nothing is the better question. And the patterns are clear
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
over 600 dead daily in Italy. Have you even heard about the exponential curve in your infinite wisdom? If you do nothing, the medical facilities will be completely out of capacity in a couple of weeks and the dead will start piling. 
Doing nothing is not an option. Even the greatest morons among world leaders such as Trump and Johnson will be forced to do something when the dead start piling.


----------



## Sad Al

The ultimate question is: How to make money fast with coronavirus?


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> What is the cost of doing nothing is the better question. And the patterns are clear
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
> over 600 dead daily in Italy. Have you even heard about the exponential curve in your infinite wisdom? If you do nothing, the medical facilities will be completely out of capacity in a couple of weeks and the dead will start piling.
> Doing nothing is not an option. Even the greatest morons among world leaders such as Trump and Johnson will be forced to do something when the dead start piling.


Um. Johnson didn't devise the UK strategy, scientists did. I don't blame any politicians who are acting on the best advice they get from scientists. Fact is, no strategy is going to avoid deaths, and unfortunately, the elderly and people with underlying conditions are always vulnerable every winter. In 2016-2017 winter, 24,000 people died of flu in Italy, mainly the elderly and people with underlying conditions.

The problem now facing us to flatten the curve, while also preparing for what happens next. Until a vaccine is created, we'll have this virus among us, and already, although the numbers are relatively low, it's been catastrophic in its effect. How to counter it, or find ways to live with it, or to function as a society, while it's still potent? That's the thing nobody has figured out yet...


----------



## Sad Al

Kieran said:


> Until a vaccine is created, we'll have this virus among us, and already, although the numbers are relatively low, it's been catastrophic in its effect. How to counter it, or find ways to live with it, or to function as a society, while it's still potent? That's the thing nobody has figured out yet...


Nope. Peräsmies figured it out. Until the tragic day when he was killed by a drunk driver, he taught that violence is not a solution to problems, but alcohol is. Peräsmies should be awarded posthumously the Nobel Peace prize!


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> Um. Johnson didn't devise the UK strategy, scientists did. I don't blame any politicians who are acting on the best advice they get from scientists. Fact is, no strategy is going to avoid deaths, and unfortunately, the elderly and people with underlying conditions are always vulnerable every winter. In 2016-2017 winter, 24,000 people died of flu in Italy, mainly the elderly and people with underlying conditions.
> 
> The problem now facing us to flatten the curve, while also preparing for what happens next. Until a vaccine is created, we'll have this virus among us, and already, although the numbers are relatively low, it's been catastrophic in its effect. How to counter it, or find ways to live with it, or to function as a society, while it's still potent? That's the thing nobody has figured out yet...


Ultimately, we are going to find out by the most brutal way - number of deaths per million in each country - whose approach was best. I do not know who are the scientists advising Johnson, but his theories of "herd immunity" are speculations given that we do not have enough data about the long term immunity to the virus. So he is recklessly gambling with with tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

There is no calculation for "death rate" . Variables are iffy . But many have become hapless believers in
the snooze news .


----------



## DaveM

Evangeline Lilly, previous star of the Lost series is apparently skeptical about almost everything to do with the coronavirus and declared something to do with ‘Marshall Law’ not being necessary. Well that’s true. Marshall Law shouldn’t be necessary. Nor should Sheriff or Constable Law. On the other hand, can’t speak to Martial Law.


----------



## CnC Bartok

Judith said:


> Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
> Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
> Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?


No, Judith, you are not alone in feeling thus. I have spent two days feeling very sorry for all my students whose exams have been cancelled, and are now relying on our (i.e. MY) opinion for their grades. It's stopping me from feeling sorry for myself, though...for the moment anyway.


----------



## CnC Bartok

DaveM said:


> Evangeline Lilly, previous star of the Lost series is apparently skeptical about almost everything to do with the coronavirus and declared something to do with 'Marshall Law' not being necessary. Well that's true. Marshall Law shouldn't be necessary. Nor should Sheriff or Constable Law. On the other hand, can't speak to Martial Law.


I think she's behaving like a bowl in a china shop, and is merely looking for a suitable escape goat.


----------



## Krummhorn

starthrower said:


> I suppose there are no full proof protections. Just washing hands frequently. I wouldn't want to be a cashier right now. But Aldi should be providing disinfectant wipes for thousands handling the shopping carts. I go straight to the rest room and wash my hands right after shopping.


Was in Safeway the other night. All the cashiers were using disinfectant soap after each transaction as well as wiping down the surface of the checkout counter after each customer left.

The same store has always (for years) had disinfectant wipes for customers as they enter the store so that people can wipe off parts of the grocery cart.


----------



## pianozach

Strange Magic said:


> North Carolina Senator Richard Burr gave a stark warning to select North Carolina insiders quite different from his public remarks at the same time:
> 
> https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/81819...ts-on-covid-19





Strange Magic said:


> More about this story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51976484


Yesterday it turned out Sen. *Kelly Loeffler* is the second senator who has gotten rid of their holdings right as the stock market went bad.

Both *Loeffler* and *Burr* are Republicans.

Today it turns out that there are four Senators that appear to have sold stock earlier this year. Financial disclosures indicate that they, or their spouses, sold large chunks of stock around the time senators were receiving behind-the-scenes briefings about the severity of the virus.

So .. . . also implicated are *Sen. Jim Inhofe*, R-Okla (Gawd, HE's a real piece of *****), and
*Sen. Dianne Feinstein*, D-Calif (a corporate Democrat that's usually been pretty good for California)

*On February 12, senators were given a closed-door briefing by Trump administration officials about the potential extended cost and risks to public health posed by the coronavirus. *

On February 13, *Senator Richard Burr* sold anywhere between $50,001 and $100,000 worth of stock in firms like Complete Extended Stay and Wyndham Hotels. Burr claims that he "relied solely on public news reports to guide my decision regarding the sale stocks on February 13." That still doesn't explain why he was telling us that everything was fine, though

On February 14, *Sen. Kelly Loeffler* she sold between $250,001 and $500,000 worth of stock in Exxon Mobil from an account owned jointly with her husband, *Jeffrey Sprecher, the chair of the New York Stock Exchange*.

Yesterday she Tweeted _"This is a ridiculous and baseless attack. I do not make investment decisions for my portfolio. Investment decisions are made by multiple third-party advisors without my or my husband's knowledge or involvement."_, a claim I find extremely hard to believe. No one lets their "advisor" sell off a half million dollars without their consent.

On Feb. 20, *Sen. Jim Inhofe*'s disclosure says he sold between $50,001 and $100,000 in stock in asset management company Brookfield Asset Management. Inhofe also claims, "I do not have any involvement in my investment decisions."

*Sen. Dianne Feinstein*'s disclosure shows her selling between $1,000,001 and $5,000,000 of stock in Allogene Therapeutics on February 18, 2020.

The biopharmaceutical company's stock is down more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

Feinstein spokesman Tom Mentzer told Fox News Feinstein's assets are in a blind trust and, "She has no involvement in her husband's financial decisions."

.

_There also seems to be some reports that make this even worse_:

One of *Loeffler's* two _*purchases*_ was stock worth between $100,000 and $250,000 in *Citrix*, a technology company that offers teleworking software. You know - Work-from-home and Online Education.

I'm not saying these people engineered a virus, or even the economic shutdown. But they knew about it in advance, and engaged in insider trading to profit from a National Emergency.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> Ultimately, we are going to find out by the most brutal way - number of deaths per million in each country - whose approach was best. I do not know who are the scientists advising Johnson, but his theories of "herd immunity" are speculations given that we do not have enough data about the long term immunity to the virus. So he is recklessly gambling with with tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.


Again, they're not *his *theories.

He was advised by several science-based institutions: SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies), NERVTAG (an expert group on respiratory virus threats), ACDP (an independent Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens), the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling who advise the UK govt on infectious disease, JVCI (Joint Group on Vaccination and Immunisation).

These are not Boris Johnson, and it's not his strategy. It's wrong to be blaming him when even the Guardian/Observer on Sunday gave him praise for his response:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...r6vzShC2-yhNVPRmcGJQXqyiGM#Echobox=1584265182


----------



## senza sordino

> From the Guardian Newspaper
> 
> Authorities in Rome on Friday announced 5,986 new cases and a record 627 new deaths, raising the totals to 47,021 infections and 4,032 fatalities.
> 
> In Spain, the death toll rose to 1,002, a highest-ever increase of 235 in 24 hours. The latest statistics showed 19,980 confirmed cases across the country, more than a third in Madrid.





> From CBC News
> 
> B.C. municipalities say some of the products people have been using to disinfect their homes during the coronavirus pandemic are making their way into the sewer system and could lead to serious blockage problems.
> 
> Disinfectant wipes don't break down easily like toilet paper. Instead, they attract other solid materials and oils and can clump together to form giant masses, nicknamed "fatbergs," that clog sewer pipes and treatment plant equipment.
> 
> "Wastewater operators have to engage in the very unpleasant task of finding and extracting these blockages,"





> From the Guardian Newspaper
> 
> Look down into the waters of the Venice canals today and there is a surprising sight - not just a clear view of the sandy bed, but shoals of tiny fish, scuttling crabs and multicoloured plant-life.
> 
> The clarity of the water has improved dramatically. Swans and cormorants have returned to dive for fish they can now see. At the Piazzale Roma vaporetto stop, ducks have even made a nest. "Someone has put up a sign saying, 'Don't tread on the duck eggs,"


Some news I found. We're not on lock down here (yet), but I'm avoiding going out into the public realm. I'm on Spring Break here, it started last Monday. Tuesday the Minister of Education said that schools are suspended indefinitely.

I'm finding things to do:
Tuesday was baking day and laundry and ironing day
Wednesday was gardening day
Thursday was clean out and organize the second bedroom (my 'playroom') day.
Today was housework day, dusting & vacuuming etc.
Tomorrow will be a marking school tests day (these were done on the final two days before Spring Break started)
Sunday will be a day of rest.

I'm trying to find things to keep me busy everyday. I don't want to just park myself in front of the television all day.


----------



## Kieran

senza sordino said:


> Some news I found. We're not on lock down here (yet), but I'm avoiding going out into the public realm. I'm on Spring Break here, it started last Monday. Tuesday the Minister of Education said that schools are suspended indefinitely.
> 
> I'm finding things to do:
> Tuesday was baking day and laundry and ironing day
> Wednesday was gardening day
> Thursday was clean out and organize the second bedroom (my 'playroom') day.
> Today was housework day, dusing vacuuming etc.
> Tomorrow will be a marking school tests day (these were done on the final two days before Spring Break started)
> Sunday will be a day of rest.
> 
> I'm trying to find things to keep me busy everyday. I don't want to just park myself in front of the television all day.


Senzo, where in Italy are you? I was in Rome as recently as 3 weeks ago, and though it was quieter than normal, the spirirt and atmosphere was good. It's heartbreaking to see what's happening there now. It's my first port of call for a break, and I have one booked for September in Sicily, and I hope that soon they'll see some light at the end of the tunnel, but it's catastrophic right now, and that's so sad to see...


----------



## senza sordino

Kieran said:


> Senza, where in Italy are you? I was in Rome as recently as 3 weeks ago, and though it was quieter than normal, the spirirt and atmosphere was good. It's heartbreaking to see what's happening there now. It's my first port of call for a break, and I have one booked for September in Sicily, and I hope that soon they'll see some light at the end of the tunnel, but it's catastrophic right now, and that's so sad to see...


I am nowhere near Italy. I live in the metropolitan area of Vancouver, Canada.

It is devastating to see what has happened in Italy.


----------



## Kieran

senza sordino said:


> I am nowhere near Italy. I live in the metropolitan area of Vancouver, Canada.
> 
> It is devastating to see what has happened in Italy.


Ah! My apologies! I thought your post referred to your homeland, which I assumed was Italy based on you pen-name...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> Again, they're not *his *theories.
> 
> He was advised by several science-based institutions: SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies), NERVTAG (an expert group on respiratory virus threats), ACDP (an independent Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens), the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling who advise the UK govt on infectious disease, JVCI (Joint Group on Vaccination and Immunisation).
> 
> These are not Boris Johnson, and it's not his strategy. It's wrong to be blaming him when even the Guardian/Observer on Sunday gave him praise for his response:
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/comment...r6vzShC2-yhNVPRmcGJQXqyiGM#Echobox=1584265182


I hope I am wrong, but my prediction for the UK is that in about 2-3 weeks the situation is going to look like Italy - thanks to Johnson's negligence at the beginning of the pandemic, when he allowed it to spread unchecked. You have many more infected than the official numbers and the 4th highest growth in the number of deaths among all countries. 
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html


----------



## Guest

This is absolutely en pointe:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/20/a-disaster-without-precedent/


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> I hope I am wrong, but my prediction for the UK is that in about 2-3 weeks the situation is going to look like Italy - thanks to Johnson's negligence at the beginning of the pandemic, when he allowed it to spread unchecked. You have many more infected than the official numbers and the 4th highest growth in the number of deaths among all countries.
> https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...coronavirus-plan-could-kill-over-100-000.html


Look, regardless of who you and I are, we're not talking to the people he's talking to. Maybe the Brits got it wrong, or maybe they got it right, but if he discarded the advice of the experts and did his own thing because he thought it was better, he'd be a fool, and it would be a criminal act if he got it wrong. But he's working with experts, placing his trust in them - which is what a PM should do. I hope your prediction is wrong, but who can say with any certainty that they're not heading that direction anyway?

This is a pandemic and it's going to take its toll. There isn't an expert in the science community has said they know how or when this will end...


----------



## Guest

I'm amazed at how many coronavirus experts and epidemiological experts are participating in this thread who knew exactly what every government SHOULD HAVE done. Bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks with a little bit of knowledge.


----------



## Strange Magic

I am enjoying Trump's daily press conferences. He puts on a wonderful show, an exhibition of what a 14-year-old boy--a clearly disturbed boy with an ego both enormous and yet strangely fragile--would say when confronted with realities beyond his capacity to understand. The response is aggression, continued blaming of others, and a constant expression of his personal martyrdom that he triumphantly rises above. Anthony Fauci rolls his eyes in the background, hardly believing he is in the same room with this emotionally, mentally, morally, intellectually malformed child. But Fauci's loyalties are clearly with his country, his job and responsibilities, and he soldiers on, thank goodness!

I explain periodically to my wife that we have a deeply disturbed boy as POTUS when she becomes incensed yet again at his incompetence and posturing, but she tells me to stop saying that, as it only makes her feel worse. But I tell her that unhappily it is true, and, what is worse, millions believe Trump is a gift to America from God Himself. We suffer from more than one infestation.


----------



## philoctetes

Anybody who knows jack-squat about risk analysis or game theory knows how a little change in the CP (cost*risk) factor of an outcome can alter the choice between one "optimal" strategy and another... 

In the ideal society, we'd not spare a single measure to protect ourselves, because the cost of doing so would be zero. But that's not how it is, so choosing the "optimal" operating point for policy is not only critical but easy to miss... so if you get close you're doing a fair job, until the ankle-biters have their judgment...


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> I am enjoying Trump's daily press conferences. He puts on a wonderful show, an exhibition of what a 14-year-old boy--a clearly disturbed boy with an ego both enormous and yet strangely fragile--would say when confronted with realities beyond his capacity to understand. The response is aggression, continued blaming of others, and a constant expression of his personal martyrdom that he triumphantly rises above. Anthony Fauci rolls his eyes in the background, hardly believing he is in the same room with this emotionally, mentally, morally, intellectually malformed child. But Fauci's loyalties are clearly with his country, his job and responsibilities, and he soldiers on, thank goodness!
> 
> I explain periodically to my wife that we have a deeply disturbed boy as POTUS when she becomes incensed yet again at his incompetence and posturing, but she tells me to stop saying that, as it only makes her feel worse. But I tell her that unhappily it is true, and, what is worse, millions believe Trump is a gift to America from God Himself. We suffer from more than one infestation.


Good to know your need to repeatedly say the same thing takes precedence over your wife's feelings. It isn't only us you annoy.


----------



## KenOC

Here's a US map with *coronavirus case counts* shown graphically for each state, and a table below with the actual numbers and trend bars. Very interesting.


----------



## DaveM

Enacting optimal policy as soon as possible depends on the person who controls policy relying on experts rather than his gut feeling. The one good thing Trump did was closing the border to China, but for too long a period after that he was sure that the relatively few cases of coronavirus being reported in the U.S. was due to his closing that border rather than the reality which was how little testing was being done. There are ankle-biters, but then there are bullshi**ers.


----------



## Strange Magic

DrMike said:


> Good to know your need to repeatedly say the same thing takes precedence over your wife's feelings. It isn't only us you annoy.


Merely speaking aloud the truth that constantly reverberates inside even your head. Often truth is annoying, but it must be spoken. You could put me on Ignore again.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Here's a US map with *coronavirus case counts* shown graphically for each state, and a table below with the actual numbers and trend bars. Very interesting.


and here the exponential curves to see how many days until Italy
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/er-doctor-coronavirus-exponential-growth


----------



## Room2201974

Best Democratic hoax since Pizzagate! And to think, the whole thing was developed from genetic research notes Vinny Foster left the Chinese. Pretty much knocks out Chelsea's run for the presidency in 2028 - but I suppose that's obvious to all of us now.


----------



## KenOC

I did a quick analysis of the most-affected major countries to see how badly each was being hit in proportion to its population. Here's the resulting table, sorted by deaths per million inhabitants. Data as of today.


----------



## haydnguy

We had our biggest one day spike in cases today. Unfortunately 13 are in nursing homes.


----------



## Guest

Strange Magic said:


> I am enjoying Trump's daily press conferences. He puts on a wonderful show, an exhibition of what a 14-year-old boy--a clearly disturbed boy with an ego both enormous and yet strangely fragile--would say when confronted with realities beyond his capacity to understand. The response is aggression, continued blaming of others, and a constant expression of his personal martyrdom that he triumphantly rises above. Anthony Fauci rolls his eyes in the background, hardly believing he is in the same room with this emotionally, mentally, morally, intellectually malformed child. But Fauci's loyalties are clearly with his country, his job and responsibilities, and he soldiers on, thank goodness!
> 
> I explain periodically to my wife that we have a deeply disturbed boy as POTUS when she becomes incensed yet again at his incompetence and posturing, but she tells me to stop saying that, as it only makes her feel worse. But I tell her that unhappily it is true, and, what is worse, millions believe Trump is a gift to America from God Himself. We suffer from more than one infestation.


Trump's mind works in a totally weird way that no one else can fathom. Today, was probably his last chance to hold a press conference and REASSURE the public that they have a plan. Calm people down, encourage investment. What does he do? He picks a fight with a reporter. I'm at wit's end with this fkin idiot. If you can't do the job, Mr. Trump (and you can't), then get the fk out!!!! We're tired of your BS! Start acting like a man, god-damn you!!!!! He can't reassure people because he has no idea what he's doing. We're in this mess because of him. He doesn't listen to anyone and he's completely stupid. And he thinks he's the HERO in all of this--a HERO!!

He only has one job!! Be the fkin president!! Mr. Deal-Maker! Mr. Tough-Guy!! We're all just SO impressed. Well, we Trump-haters told Americans something like this would happen because he isn't up to the job. I still don't know if even this is enough to keep idiots from voting for him again. Not that it matters. This was why we wanted him out, before something like this happened. But--too late.


----------



## philoctetes

It's been 5 days since I first heard about chloroquine but it wasn't here... I saw an interview with the French guy reporting his test results.. anyway Fauci supposedly embarrassed Trump about this today.. people who would normally be suspicious of the drug industry seem to be happy that Trump was "wrong" - amazing...


----------



## Guest

Victor Redseal said:


> Trump's mind works in a totally weird way that no one else can fathom. Today, was probably his last chance to hold a press conference and REASSURE the public that they have a plan. Calm people down, encourage investment. What does he do? He picks a fight with a reporter. I'm at wit's end with this fkin idiot. If you can't do the job, Mr. Trump (and you can't), then get the fk out!!!! We're tired of your BS! Start acting like a man, god-damn you!!!!! He can't reassure people because he has no idea what he's doing. We're in this mess because of him. He doesn't listen to anyone and he's completely stupid. And he thinks he's the HERO in all of this--a HERO!!
> 
> He only has one job!! Be the fkin president!! Mr. Deal-Maker! Mr. Tough-Guy!! We're all just SO impressed. Well, we Trump-haters told Americans something like this would happen because he isn't up to the job. I still don't know if even this is enough to keep idiots from voting for him again. Not that it matters. This was why we wanted him out, before something like this happened. But--too late.


Grab a paper bag and breathe . . . just breathe.


----------



## Varick

starthrower said:


> Listening to Trump's latest press conference he is still referring to Covid-19 as the Chinese virus. Does he think this is a wise thing to say? Sure, China bears much responsibility but this is just petty and unprofessional coming from the president of the United States.


Is it really? What about all these newscasters who used the EXACT SAME language??? 




Where was the outrage then???? Oh, that's right, I forgot, if Trump does it, no matter what it is.... it's horrific!!!!!

V


----------



## mmsbls

DrMike said:


> Grab a paper bag and breathe . . . just breathe.


On a different topic, I understand that vaccine testing will take potentially much longer than testing for safety and efficacy of drugs to counteract the virus. Drugs that are already approved for other purposes can be somewhat fast-tracked.

Roughly what might the time be to properly test a drug that is already approved such that it could be used in the US (for example). Also what if another country tests a drug and approves it, does the US have to do its own testing before US doctors could use those drugs?


----------



## Varick

what the hell is going on with the quoting text function????


----------



## Varick

Jacck said:


> What is the cost of doing nothing is the better question. And the patterns are clear
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
> over 600 dead daily in Italy. Have you even heard about the exponential curve in your infinite wisdom? If you do nothing, the medical facilities will be completely out of capacity in a couple of weeks and the dead will start piling.
> Doing nothing is not an option. Even the greatest morons among world leaders such as Trump and Johnson will be forced to do something when the dead start piling.


I'm sorry, exactly when and where did I say we should do *nothing*????

V


----------



## senza sordino




----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> It's been 5 days since I first heard about chloroquine but it wasn't here... I saw an interview with the French guy reporting his test results.. anyway Fauci supposedly embarrassed Trump about this today.. people who would normally be suspicious of the drug industry seem to be happy that Trump was "wrong" - amazing...


You heard about hydroxychloroquine from the 'French guy', not chloroquine. Don't feel bad, Trump mixed them up also.


----------



## Varick

Strange Magic said:


> I am enjoying Trump's daily press conferences. He puts on a wonderful show, an exhibition of what a 14-year-old boy--a clearly disturbed boy with an ego both enormous and yet strangely fragile--would say when confronted with realities beyond his capacity to understand. The response is aggression, continued blaming of others, and a constant expression of his personal martyrdom that he triumphantly rises above. Anthony Fauci rolls his eyes in the background, hardly believing he is in the same room with this emotionally, mentally, morally, intellectually malformed child. But Fauci's loyalties are clearly with his country, his job and responsibilities, and he soldiers on, thank goodness!
> 
> I explain periodically to my wife that we have a deeply disturbed boy as POTUS when she becomes incensed yet again at his incompetence and posturing, but she tells me to stop saying that, as it only makes her feel worse. But I tell her that unhappily it is true, and, what is worse, millions believe Trump is a gift to America from God Himself. We suffer from more than one infestation.


"Trump Derangement Syndrome" I used to think was just a funny term. I now know it is a VERY real thing. Case in point.

Fauci is the picture perfect example of what I described one page ago about "experts." Fauci knows a lot about a little. This is a man who just said today, that knowing how many people Actually have it is nice but not important. THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW HOW ACTUALLY DANGEROUS THIS VIRUS IS. Good God, my jaw hit the ground when he said that. I also realized he validates EVERYTHING I believe about "experts:" Most of them are smart knowledgeable about ONE particular subject, but are FOOLS.

V


----------



## philoctetes

Varick said:


> I'm sorry, exactly when and where did I say we should do *nothing*????
> 
> V


using logic like a nail and hammer


----------



## starthrower

Varick said:


> Is it really? What about all these newscasters who used the EXACT SAME language???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Where was the outrage then???? Oh, that's right, I forgot, if Trump does it, no matter what it is.... it's horrific!!!!!
> 
> V


I heard "China's Coronavirus" repeated as nauseam. I'm assuming most of the clips compiled here date from a time when the infection first emerged in that country? We are long past that time and I've not heard one reporter refer to Covid-19 as the "Chinese virus" in the past 6 weeks. But tRump still calls it by that name. He's also getting very snarky with reporters asking legitimate questions concerning realities he'd rather deny or put out of his mind. Bad, bad reporters!


----------



## philoctetes

Well you all can have your "false hope" if that's how you want it... what else ya got?


----------



## starthrower

philoctetes said:


> Well you all can have your "false hope" if that's how you want it... what else ya got?


I don't know about hope. It is what it is.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Did Coronavirus originate from China or didn't it? Did SARS originate from China or didn't it? We know that some marketplace standards in China and other places in SE Asia as regards hygiene probably haven't altered in the last 1000 years so why be so amazed that it all stems from there?


----------



## Guest

Varick said:


> "Trump Derangement Syndrome" I used to think was just a funny term. I now know it is a VERY real thing. Case in point.
> 
> Fauci is the picture perfect example of what I described one page ago about "experts." Fauci knows a lot about a little. This is a man who just said today, that knowing how many people Actually have it is nice but not important. THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW HOW ACTUALLY DANGEROUS THIS VIRUS IS. Good God, my jaw hit the ground when he said that. I also realized he validates EVERYTHING I believe about "experts:" Most of them are smart knowledgeable about ONE particular subject, but are FOOLS.
> 
> V


No, Fauci has been around for a long time. He may be arrogant (almost certainly so) but the man knows his stuff. He has been in Washington long enough that he knows how the game works but I have no doubt he knows the science.


----------



## Guest

mmsbls said:


> On a different topic, I understand that vaccine testing will take potentially much longer than testing for safety and efficacy of drugs to counteract the virus. Drugs that are already approved for other purposes can be somewhat fast-tracked.
> 
> Roughly what might the time be to properly test a drug that is already approved such that it could be used in the US (for example). Also what if another country tests a drug and approves it, does the US have to do its own testing before US doctors could use those drugs?


I have no clue what these timeframes are . I haven't done anything on the clinical side. I just know that it is usually lengthy. But they have fast tracked other things, like the test kit from Thermo Fisher.


----------



## Guest

elgars ghost said:


> Did Coronavirus originate from China or didn't it? Did SARS originate from China or didn't it? We know that some marketplace standards in China and other places in SE Asia as regards hygiene probably haven't altered in the last 1000 years so why be so amazed that it all stems from there?


Wet markets in general are an issue. HIV likely also sprung from an African wet market - made the jump from a simian host (almost certainly chimpanzee) to humans.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Now the pubs are closed in the UK. Let's see how they police the rural interior...


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> I heard "China's Coronavirus" repeated as nauseam. I'm assuming most of the clips compiled here date from a time when the infection first emerged in that country? We are long past that time and I've not heard one reporter refer to Covid-19 as the "Chinese virus" in the past 6 weeks. But tRump still calls it by that name. He's also getting very snarky with reporters asking legitimate questions concerning realities he'd rather deny or put out of his mind. Bad, bad reporters!


Almost like the repeated childish nicknames you all use for Trump.

But the rebranding of the virus is yet another way the WHO is running as mouthpiece for the Chinese government. Calling it the Chinese coronavirus is only racist if referring to Ebola virus is racist, or Hantavirus, or Rift Valley Fever virus. Is Marburg virus demeaning to Germans?

Look, reporters, like politicians, would only be deserving of our trust if they hadn't violated it so often. The reason Trump is able to so easily cast reporters in bad light is because most of us were already thinking it long before Trump came along. Like Dan Rather running a fake document about Bush because he thought that bringing down Bush was more important than the truth. Brian Williams is a serial liar and still has a job with MSNBC. No, reporters are not infallible. But their mistakes almost always fall one particular way. If only they had paid the Obama administration this much scrutiny, we might give them some credit now.


----------



## Strange Magic

Varick said:


> "Trump Derangement Syndrome" I used to think was just a funny term. I now know it is a VERY real thing. Case in point.


Yes, Trump Derangement Syndrome. It is the gift of seeing and hearing Donald Trump, silencing all the alarm bells going off in one's head, and accepting his bullying, lying, narcissism, and incompetence as marks of his special genius. Half the administration have The Syndrome; the other half use him, smirking, for their own ends.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Christ, you Americans really are polarised, aren't you? Is there anything that would make you all happy?


----------



## starthrower

Not a racist issue in my mind but I realize these 24 hour news networks need something to go on about endlessly. But the term "Chinese Virus" is no longer relevant or accurate when discussing it in the context of the pandemic it has come to be. Nobody gives a hoot anymore. It's here and people don't want to get it.


----------



## Strange Magic

elgars ghost said:


> Christ, you Americans really are polarised, aren't you? Is there anything that would make you all happy?


All happy? No, Americans have never been all happy. If you have a couple weeks, I'll tell you what would make me happy.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Now the pubs have shut maybe I have all the time in the world. Strange Magic, you strike me as being a genuinely nice and caring person but I get the impression that you carry too much political baggage on your shoulders. Horrible as it may sound but there are times when that load may need to be lightened.


----------



## starthrower

Some good info here from epidemiologist, Larry Brilliant.
https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/


----------



## KenOC

Here's a VERY interesting video on estimating the true rate of coronavirus infection based on confirmed cases. Should be of interest to the more analytically-inclined among us.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Erm...Ken - can you boil that thing down into simple terms for the benefit of thickos like me? Thanks.


----------



## KenOC

elgars ghost said:


> Erm...Ken - can you boil that thing down into simple terms...? Thanks.


Worth watching! But in simple terms, there is a much higher infection rate than the numbers indicate. But we knew that, right?


----------



## philoctetes

I recall Fauci once begin very adamant about testing, but that was early last week... long time ago!


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Here's a VERY interesting video on estimating the true rate of coronavirus infection based on confirmed cases. Should be of interest to the more analytically-inclined among us.





KenOC said:


> Worth watching! But in simple terms, there is a much higher infection rate than the numbers indicate. But we knew that, right?


A friend of mine has been tracking the cases

This shows the progress of the cases and deaths per day. The only difference in the Location columns is the start date.

She updates this daily

Tell me what you think.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...aEFvKD1EM5uRKWerLuvvt2FPu9K1DN3C604_PPQ4DLiak


----------



## DaveM

I don’t know why anyone would call Dr. Fauci arrogant. I’ve heard quite a bit from him over the last few weeks and he’s been the one bright light in the Trump forest during the worst of these times. He answers reporters’ questions patiently and clearly and if he ever seems a little abrupt in his answers it’s when he’s having to cover inaccurate statements Trump has made.


----------



## haydnguy

pianozach said:


> A friend of mine has been tracking the cases
> 
> This shows the progress of the cases and deaths per day. The only difference in the Location columns is the start date.
> 
> She updates this daily
> 
> Tell me what you think.
> 
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...aEFvKD1EM5uRKWerLuvvt2FPu9K1DN3C604_PPQ4DLiak


It's very good. She made an update while I was looking at it. It would be interesting to keep track of New York as well. I don't know if she has the ability to do that or wants to.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> I don't know why anyone would call Dr. Fauci arrogant. I've heard quite a bit from him over the last few weeks and he's been the one bright light in the Trump forest during the worst of these times. He answers reporters' questions patiently and clearly and if he ever seems a little abrupt in his answers it's when he's having to cover inaccurate statements Trump has made.


He is arrogant in the way that most really successful scientists are, as they are usually very driven people. I didn't mean it in a derogatory way. I respect him a lot.


----------



## haydnguy

DrMike said:


> He is arrogant in the way that most really successful scientists are, as they are usually very driven people. I didn't mean it in a derogatory way. I respect him a lot.


I have always said, I don't know who has the most arrogant people the medical field or tech. But they are what they are.


----------



## KenOC

haydnguy said:


> I have always said, I don't know who has the most arrogant people the medical field or tech. But they are what they are.


I was being wheeled in for thoracic surgery some time back and noted that the surgeon seemed rather self-assured and, yes, "arrogant." That was a comfort to me at the time, as I assumed that a certain amount of arrogance indicated a certain amount of skill.

Unfortunately, the procedure was botched and caused me many subsequent problems. I guess there's just no telling!


----------



## DaveM

Of course one wants their doctor to be confident, but the definition of arrogance does not imply a compliment. That’s not to say some doctors aren’t arrogant...particularly surgeons, but then when you see how much they have to stick their necks out you can understand it.


----------



## pianozach

haydnguy said:


> It's very good. She made an update while I was looking at it. It would be interesting to keep track of New York as well. I don't know if she has the ability to do that or wants to.


I suppose she could if she wanted.

She just recently added the SF Bay area column.


----------



## erki

elgars ghost said:


> Erm...Ken - can you boil that thing down into simple terms for the benefit of thickos like me? Thanks.


As I understand this it is important not to let the virus peak in a short time frame. Eventually you will get as many cases as you would in any way but to spreading the peak around in to longer time period you will be able to handle dealing with it better. Like if you get 1000 hospitalisations in 3 days versus 1000 in 7 days makes big difference in mortality rate.


----------



## starthrower

elgars ghost said:


> Christ, you Americans really are polarised, aren't you? Is there anything that would make you all happy?


Television and the internet can give one a rather distorted and oversimplified picture of things, don't you think? For are purposes the internet gives us a two dimensional opinionated version of a human being. Not exactly the full picture. But I feel like the typical American, if there is such a thing, is overworked and stressed out. And it's looking like it takes a pandemic for people here to actually have a month off from work to spend time at home their families. Its not the most ideal circumstances for a vacation and people will be worrying about finances but hopefully things can get worked out if this doesn't go on for too long. And yes, America is a big, dynamic, weird country and we have a lot of serious problems. And there is a bit more polorization these days.


----------



## Sad Al

starthrower said:


> Television and the internet can give one a rather distorted and oversimplified picture of things, don't you think? For are purposes the internet gives us a two dimensional opinionated version of a human being. Not exactly the full picture. But I feel like the typical American, if there is such a thing, is overworked and stressed out. And it's looking like it takes a pandemic for people here to actually have a month off from work to spend time at home their families. Its not the most ideal circumstances for a vacation and people will be worrying about finances but hopefully things can get worked out if this doesn't go on for too long. And yes, America is a big, dynamic, weird country and we have a lot of serious problems. And there is a bit more polorization these days.


Yawn. Why don't you bomb Russia


----------



## Strange Magic

elgars ghost said:


> Now the pubs have shut maybe I have all the time in the world. Strange Magic, you strike me as being a genuinely nice and caring person but I get the impression that you carry too much political baggage on your shoulders. Horrible as it may sound but there are times when that load may need to be lightened.


We Americans have some profound disagreements about such things as race, religion, the role of government, guns saturating our social space, truth itself--things often called the "culture wars", a term popularized by Nixon aid Pat Buchanan. Our institutions have been under attack for decades now--the federal government's Civil Service, the Press, science, voting rights, minority rights, so much else--from Right-Wing Culture Warriers and the threat of their resurgent armed (well-armed) militias, that rigorous politics is today mandatory for America to survive as a country. Acquiescence in today's historical drift leads to a dark future.

Otherwise everything is fine.


----------



## starthrower

Sad Al said:


> Yawn. Why don't you bomb Russia


I'm too tired. Why do you think of something worthwhile to say instead of a smug put down?


----------



## eljr

Sad Al said:


> Yawn. Why don't you bomb Russia


To what practical end?


----------



## Jacck

Sad Al said:


> Yawn. Why don't you bomb Russia


Russia should be put into international quarantine. That backward stalinist country has nothing to offer to the world except for corruption, lies, wars and putlerist fascicm. Close its embassies, close its borders, disconnect it from internet, stop all flights. And let it rot. Open the borders only after they become civilized.


----------



## starthrower

Strange Magic said:


> We Americans have some profound disagreements about such things as race, religion, the role of government, guns saturating our social space, truth itself--things often called the "culture wars", a term popularized by Nixon aid Pat Buchanan. Our institutions have been under attack for decades now--the federal government's Civil Service, the Press, science, voting rights, minority rights, so much else--from Right-Wing Culture Warriers and the threat of their resurgent armed (well-armed) militias, that rigorous politics is today mandatory for America to servive as a country. Acquiescence in today's historical drift leads to a dark future.
> 
> Otherwise everything is fine.


You forgot to mention that half the country is working like slaves in order to maintain somewhat of a middle class lifestyle and pay for health insurance. Otherwise everything's fine.


----------



## Strange Magic

starthrower said:


> You forgot to mention that half the country is working like slaves in order to maintain somewhat of a middle class lifestyle and pay for health insurance. Otherwise everything's fine.


Thanks for the reminder. I also forgot the homeless, the Dreamers, the two- or three-job working poor, the gig economy workers, all attempting to exist on the crumbs trickling down from the 1% at the top. But maybe big tax cuts for the rich will again revitalize our economy!


----------



## starthrower

Strange Magic said:


> But maybe big tax cuts for the rich will again revitalize our economy!


Hey! That, and the immediate false assurances from a con man that has been lying through his teeth about how our well oiled machine is on top of this health crisis.


----------



## Jacck

it is as we suspected, there are many asymptomatic carriers who spread the virus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ss-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19


----------



## starthrower

America blew the window of opportunity to contain the spread so we'll have to live or die with the consequences.


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> America blew the window of opportunity to contain the spread so we'll have to live or die with the consequences.


and there was no reason to.... none

In fact we did worse than blow it.... Trump's words caused behaviors that spread it like wildfire.


----------



## starthrower

Chinese officials assessing the situation in Italy have told them they are not doing enough. America is even less disciplined in our response so you know what's coming in the next several weeks. Governor Cuomo here in New York is making desperate pleas to any manufacturers that might be able to adjust their businesses to start making masks, ventilators or whatever is needed. I have zero faith in the federal government under the current "leadership".


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> Chinese officials assessing the situation in Italy have told them they are not doing enough. America is even less disciplined in our response so you know what's coming in the next several weeks. Governor Cuomo here in New York is making desperate pleas to any manufacturers that might be able to adjust their businesses to start making masks, ventilators or whatever is needed. I have zero faith in the federal government under the current "leadership".


so sad because so much of this was avoidable.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> America blew the window of opportunity to contain the spread so we'll have to live or die with the consequences.


You know this? In all our discussions on here I was never aware of your expertise in epidemiology.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> Chinese officials assessing the situation in Italy have told them they are not doing enough. America is even less disciplined in our response so you know what's coming in the next several weeks. Governor Cuomo here in New York is making desperate pleas to any manufacturers that might be able to adjust their businesses to start making masks, ventilators or whatever is needed. I have zero faith in the federal government under the current "leadership".


I laugh at the fact that you started that post of taking Chinese officials seriously. That's like Poland taking advice from Hitler in WWII as to how to mount defenses against the attack he initiated.


----------



## starthrower

DrMike said:


> You know this? In all our discussions on here I was never aware of your expertise in epidemiology.


Okay, convince me otherwise. Who needs to be an expert to read the experts and heed what they're saying? We'll see what happens over the the next several weeks as our president continues to offer false assurances about the capable response to this crisis.


----------



## starthrower

DrMike said:


> I laugh at the fact that you started that post of taking Chinese officials seriously. That's like Poland taking advice from Hitler in WWII as to how to mount defenses against the attack he initiated.


So they are lying about the dire situation in Italy? Gimme a break!


----------



## Strange Magic

*Stocking Up on Guns and Ammo During the COVID-19 Outbreak*

In case anybody comes to steal your stash during the crisis, you can fill them with lead!

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/8173...guns-and-ammunition-during-coronavirus-crisis

And here's a story that any epidemiologist would be fascinated by--the erosion of hope among those left behind by Voodoo Economics:

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/8176...-the-steady-erosion-of-u-s-working-class-life


----------



## Strange Magic

elgars ghost said:


> I meant that Strange Magic's heart appears to be in the right place irrespective of whether I agree or disagree with the political angle he has on things. I can't recall using the word 'fun'. Not that I'm saying he isn't...


I love Disco! Surely that--if nothing else--qualifies me as being a Fun Guy.


----------



## philoctetes

This ain't a dance club


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> So they are lying about the dire situation in Italy? Gimme a break!


No, I said no such thing. I trust the info out of Italy because it doesn't come from China. I'm saying the last country I'm looking to for advice is the authoritarian one that incubated and caused this pandemic in the first place. They hid information, jailed those who tried to get the word out, and unleashed who knows how many thousands of infected people on the world knowing full well it could spread person to person. I know the WHO parrots them, but then their Ethiopian director -general wants to keep his country on good terms with their number one cash cow. Doesn't mean the rest of us have to listen to anything they have to say on the subject.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> Okay, convince me otherwise. Who needs to be an expert to read the experts and heed what they're saying? We'll see what happens over the the next several weeks as our president continues to offer false assurances about the capable response to this crisis.


I'm not an expert either, which is why I'm not making such absolute judgments and criticisms of responses. The experts themselves say that we will not have a full understanding of the real mortality and infectious rates of this virus until well after this passes.

It does pay to keep this all in context. Worldwide, we still haven't had as many deaths from this virus as we have in the U.S. Alone from a normal year with seasonal flu. So while I appreciate your armchair expertise, I respectfully suggest you don't know what the hell you are talking about.


----------



## philoctetes

Italy is frightening and NY appears to be next... the US is not tapering off... too many young people are dismissing this thing... and I'm freaking out cause my street is beginning to draw park visitors while all my escape options - gym, restaurants, casinos, etc - are closed...

But yeah the Chinese are not trustworthy... nor Google, the architect of Chinese surveillance and a major conduit for US $ to China, anybody can see what fascism really looks like there.. if you can get a look that isn't controlled by US media...

In NY, Cuomo and DiBlasio spend way too much time on the networks and I don't trust them either...


----------



## mmsbls

Some comments are political without staying on topic. Some posts attack other members and have been deleted. Obviously many members enjoy this thread and wish to contribute and read others' thoughts. Please try to keep comments focused on the virus and less targeted on purely political issues or other members.


----------



## elgar's ghost

I occasionally bandied words with him when he used to start regular threads on various pop/rock groups. We got on well - even when I or anyone else joshed him over his taste he never took offence. Obviously the subject in this case is very serious but what he says hasn't offended me, probably because what he says tends to involve American politics which I have nothing to do with and little knowledge of. I have said that he seems to carry too much political baggage in general but if wants to keep shouldering that burden then that's up to him.


----------



## Guest

mmsbls said:


> Some comments are political without staying on topic. Some posts attack other members and have been deleted. Obviously many members enjoy this thread and wish to contribute and read others' thoughts. Please try to keep comments focused on the virus and less targeted on purely political issues or other members.


Well I for one am glad post #1064 is still up while my responses to it have been taken down. Can I follow that pattern and claim the ills of this country are to be blamed on leftists? That is acceptable?


----------



## philoctetes

I've been posting on this thread since it originated on 1/23... before the virus hit the US... the majority of the expectations I've had the courage to post IN ADVANCE, drawing info from a number of sources, relating to viral spread and its economic impact, have come to reality... so that has been my focus from the beginning... and I have a long-term perspective on what was happening 6 weeks ago that many late-comers here don't seem seem to have. 

Even some of the early posters are wrongly obsessed with making coronavirus the "American Virus" or "Trump's virus"... and the arrival of certain people to his thread escalates the interpersonal and anti-American tone of the thread. The attempts to continue to smear the US while it tries to control a worldwide pandemic that originated from other countries make it obvious that members of this forum are joining this media campaign to blame the US government for the whole shebang... and I can't let that happen.

If anything, it's the people of the US who are failing.


----------



## Guest

What is clear is that the U.S. should have seen this coming from January, when the explosive nature of the outbreak was obvious in China, and should have started putting infrastructure in place. That means developing a test, assembling supply chain and stockpiling materials so that testing could go into effect on a large scale if necessary. Can anyone forget Trump saying "we have 15 cases and very soon that will be down to zero"? About the same time I remember reading that the staff at the nursing home that was hit in Washington was sent to self-quarantine at home, and there were no kits available to test them. The administration was asleep at the switch. The leadership failed catastrophically and the public health institutions such as the CDC failed.

It the U.S. leadership has come from the local level. In my area the sequence of events was this. The school board closed the schools. The City mandated social distancing. The country mandated "shelter at home." The state (California) mandated "shelter at home." The Federal government has still not mandated anything.


----------



## Guest

philoctetes said:


> I've been posting on this thread since it originated on 1/23... before the virus hit the US... the majority of the expectations I've had the courage to post IN ADVANCE, drawing info from a number of sources, relating to viral spread and its economic impact, have come to reality... so that has been my focus from the beginning... and I have a long-term perspective on what was happening 6 weeks ago that many late-comers here don't seem seem to have.
> 
> Even some of the early posters are wrongly obsessed with making coronavirus the "American Virus" or "Trump's virus"... and the arrival of certain people to his thread escalates the interpersonal and anti-American tone of the thread. The attempts to continue to smear the US while it tries to control a worldwide pandemic that originated from other countries make it obvious that members of this forum are joining this media campaign to blame the US government for the whole shebang... and I can't let that happen.
> 
> If anything, it's the people of the US who are failing.


Why would you say they are failing? We are going through a pandemic from a completely new virus and were completely misled about it for the first two to three months of its existence. And the sign of our failure is some idiot college students partying on beaches and people buying all the milk and hand sanitizer? This has got to be one of the mildest freak outs I've ever seen. I think we are doing remarkably well under the circumstances. Sure, everybody predicts dire consequences to come, but it seems that nobody really had a good way of predicting the outcome of this, or they could tell us exactly why there are such disparate results between Germany and Italy other than throwing out ad hoc reasons after the fact. Only South Korea and Singapore seem to have gotten things right - countries that are much smaller and have a much easier time of locking down everything.

We'll have plenty of time after this to evaluate everything. Right now, nobody really knows what is best and is just throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks.


----------



## Guest

Baron Scarpia said:


> What is clear is that the U.S. should have seen this coming from January, when the explosive nature of the outbreak was obvious in China, and should have started putting infrastructure in place. That means developing a test, assembling supply chain and stockpiling materials so that testing could go into effect on a large scale if necessary. Can anyone forget Trump saying "we have 15 cases and very soon that will be down to zero"? About the same time I remember reading that the staff at the nursing home that was hit in Washington was sent to self-quarantine at home, and there were no kits available to test them. The administration was asleep at the switch. The leadership failed catastrophically and the public health institutions such as the CDC failed.
> 
> It the U.S. leadership has come from the local level. In my area the sequence of events was this. The school board closed the schools. The City mandated social distancing. The country mandated "shelter at home." The state (California) mandated "shelter at home." The Federal government has still not mandated anything.


Back when the WHO was telling us there was no evidence of person to person transmission? It wasn't until the end of January that anybody started to really take it seriously. Remember that initial cases in the U.S. were people who could be linked to China. So the bad info was coming from everywhere, but ultimately China and their parrot, the WHO.


----------



## philoctetes

These quotes from Trump, a number of them, are selected and twisted out of context... he also said cases would rise before they would fall... this was before we even had a growth curve to plot for the US... and the stats from the other countries have not been consistent as you can see yourself... the data is unreliable and noisy

To dwell on this is ridiculous because Trump has let Fauci, CDC, etc have the authority as he should. He's done nothing to slow them down... Newsom praised his cooperation and so did Cuomo (choking on his words) more recently. Rotating around the tv news channels, I've seen Don Lemon try to get a number of medical experts to diss Trump and they refuse to do it which makes Don very angry. Then I go back to Fox where Laura Ingraham is interviewing experts about cures... which should make it obvious why I prefer Fox for tv news over CNN

Worst of all, there was a campaign earlier this week to distort Trump's message to the public - when he advised people to seek medical equipment fo themselves, which is good advice during a shortage, he added that the gov would "back you up" on cost... but the media actually distorted this message by deleting the "back you up" part so they could fake outrage over the "find it yourself" part...

When you realize that they are purposely interfering with Trump's offers of assistance to the public, while constantly defending the country of origin that seems to be in absolute denial about everything... this media we are supposed to trust, you might want to rethink who to blame...


----------



## philoctetes

"We'll have plenty of time after this to evaluate everything"

While we head to the crematorium or the shopping center?


----------



## DaveM

DrMike said:


> *Back when the WHO was telling us there was no evidence of person to person transmission?* It wasn't until the end of January that anybody started to really take it seriously. Remember that initial cases in the U.S. were people who could be linked to China. So the bad info was coming from everywhere, but ultimately China and their parrot, the WHO.


The WHO has learned its lesson and put out this song:


----------



## Room2201974

Well, speaking of the WHO. They made a statement last week that Covid-19 cannot be transmitted by dogs, and, any dogs still left in quarantine should be released.........

Sorry, low hanging fruit. :tiphat:


----------



## Guest

philoctetes said:


> "We'll have plenty of time after this to evaluate everything"
> 
> While we head to the crematorium or the shopping center?


A bit over dramatic, no? The worst mortality rates are in the low single digits. Not quite smallpox or the Black Plague.


----------



## Guest

Enforceable borders and controlling who enters a country are looking like pretty good ideas right now.


----------



## philoctetes

DrMike said:


> A bit over dramatic, no? The worst mortality rates are in the low single digits. Not quite smallpox or the Black Plague.


Lighten up Mike.........


----------



## Guest

philoctetes said:


> Lighten up Mike.........


Funny, that is what I have been telling everybody else on here going back some time now.


----------



## philoctetes

Room2201974 said:


> Well, speaking of the WHO. They made a statement last week that Covid-19 cannot be transmitted by dogs:


WHO may have got that wrong too...

WHO made the following announcement on Jan 14: "Preliminary investigations conducted by Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission..." I can still find it on Twitter but it's hard to dig up elsewhere... it's not going away tho

*WHO trashed for sharing Chinese study claiming humans can't spread coronavirus during outbreak's onset*

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/who-trashed-for-sharing-chinese-study-claiming-humans-cant-spread-coronavirus-during-outbreaks-onset

Can't wait for three pages of media-echo bombast to declare that this too is Trump's fault...


----------



## philoctetes

DrMike said:


> Funny, that is what I have been telling everybody else on here going back some time now.


Like Ray Davies, I'm not like everybody else


----------



## premont

DrMike said:


> A bit over dramatic, no? The worst mortality rates are in the low single digits. *Not quite smallpox or the Black Plague*.


Yes, and everyone should learn to appreciate the difference just in time before they are killed by this corona virus themselves.


----------



## philoctetes

philoctetes said:


> Like Ray Davies, I'm not like everybody else


Correction, I think that was Dave D


----------



## philoctetes

premont said:


> Yes, and everyone should learn to appreciate the difference just in time before they are killed by this corona virus themselves.


I believe we are caught in a very nasty trade-off between the need to stop exponential virus growth, which HAS to be respected, and the exponential decay of the way we are accustomed to live, which is difficult for some to conceive.

The middle ground is to take substantial risks on both. It's not funny at all but I was trying to joke along with Mike about it anyway. He just didn't get my reply correctly and he should restrain from going ad hominem about my humor if he doesn't want it served back to him later.

tbh, most of y'all here are terrible jokers...


----------



## senza sordino

More grim news from Italy today:



> From CBC News
> 
> The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has leapt by 793 to 4,825, officials said on Saturday, an increase of 19.6 per cent - by far the largest daily rise in absolute terms since the contagion emerged a month ago.


More family time is not always a good thing:


> Opinion piece from the Guardian
> 
> Home is supposed to be the safest place any of us could be right now. However, for people experiencing domestic violence, social distancing means being trapped inside with an abuser. As more cities go under lockdown, activists are worried that attempts to curb the coronavirus will inadvertently lead to an increase in domestic violence.
> 
> Reports from China suggest the coronavirus has already caused a significant spike in domestic violence. Local police stations saw a threefold increase in cases reported in February compared with the previous year,


The world's longest undefended border, most of it without any fence and certainly not a wall. We can't close it off completely because we rely on food from the USA. 


> In North America, the longest undefended border between two countries is now closed to non-essential traffic, such as tourists and people looking to do some shopping, in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. The new normal at Canada-U.S. border crossings went into effect at midnight.
> 
> Under the bilateral agreement, truckers and workers essential to maintaining supply lines are exempt from the travel order. Also exempt are health professionals and others who work on one side of the border but live on the other. Students who hold valid visas, temporary foreign workers and anyone with valid work responsibilities may also cross.


----------



## elgar's ghost

philoctetes said:


> Correction, I think that was Dave D


You can have it either way - Dave sung it but Ray wrote it


----------



## haydnguy

*A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 - Even in His Young Patients*

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients


----------



## philoctetes

Found it... ok so maybe Twitter is not *your* thing, but it's used by just about everybody else on the planet... especially for breaking news... so this is not to be dismissed as irrelevant social media content... on the contrary it must have had a major impact on how everybody else reacted and prepared....


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Found it... ok so maybe Twitter is not *your* thing, but it's used by just about everybody else on the planet... especially for breaking news... so this is not to be dismissed as irrelevant social media content...
> 
> View attachment 132170


and? The right-wing media has found a new scapegoat? A tween by WHO? Has the US not the best and most extensive intelligence in the world to have accurate information about China? WHO has been warning for some time, that countries are not taking it seriously and are not doing enough. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html
_"Despite now having some of the toughest measures in the world, Italian authorities fumbled many of those steps early in the contagion - when it most mattered as they sought to preserve basic civil liberties as well as the economy. Italy's piecemeal attempts to cut it off - isolating towns first, then regions, then shutting down the country in an intentionally porous lockdown - always lagged behind the virus's lethal trajectory. "Now we are running after it," said Sandra Zampa"_

so yes, all those who tried to save the economy and their precious markets failed to implement the countermeasures on time. I am sorry, but it has been clear since the beginning of February what is coming.


----------



## philoctetes

So... we had all the never-Trump efforts failing... a strong dollar and rising employment... a bull market fueled by a Fed addicted to rate cuts... a bad primary season for Dems... pro-USA riots in Hong Kong... 

so for those who advocate major population cuts by government force AND belong to the Never-Trump camp that will accept any cost to remove him, coronavirus is the answer to all their prayers....


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> and? The right-wing media has found a new scapegoat? A tween by WHO? Has the US not the best and most extensive intelligence in the world to have accurate information about China? WHO has been warning for some time, that countries are not taking it seriously and are not doing enough.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html
> _"Despite now having some of the toughest measures in the world, Italian authorities fumbled many of those steps early in the contagion - when it most mattered as they sought to preserve basic civil liberties as well as the economy. Italy's piecemeal attempts to cut it off - isolating towns first, then regions, then shutting down the country in an intentionally porous lockdown - always lagged behind the virus's lethal trajectory. "Now we are running after it," said Sandra Zampa"_
> 
> so yes, all those who tried to save the economy and their precious markets failed to implement the countermeasures on time. I am sorry, but it has been clear since the beginning of February what is coming.


Sorry jacck you're just raving now... what logic pretzels are you eating anyway... oh yeah the anti-American kind... as if this tweet had no impact on Italy... and if you fault Italy that's another matter... the US is not Italy... and I believe Italy belongs in the "single-payer" category in the evaluation of the response by different countries....


----------



## Open Book

DrMike said:


> A bit over dramatic, no? The worst mortality rates are in the low single digits. Not quite smallpox or the Black Plague.


Yeah, but how do you explain Italy?

It's an older population? That's can't be it, Italy is no different from the rest of Europe with its low birth rate = fewer young people. Or the U.S. for that matter.

The health care system there was overwhelmed? True, they ran out of lifesaving equipment like ventilators and had to let some people die. But just the fact that you need so many ventilators to enable people to live underscores the severity of this thing. How many people with the flu end up on ventilators?

Italy's high rate of contagion and death rate bothers me and needs to be explained. Could they have a worse strain of the virus? I guess we would have heard by now if that were true.


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> So... we had all the never-Trump efforts failing... a strong dollar and rising employment... a bull market fueled by a Fed addicted to rate cuts...


Trump was the one pressuring the Fed to cut rates.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Sorry jacck you're just raving now... what logic pretzels are you eating anyway... oh yeah the anti-American kind... as if this tweet had no impact on Italy... and if you fault Italy that's a fine but the US will not be Italy if NY gets it together...


actually, many western governments underestimated it, and still underestimate it. Even our neigbors Austria and Germany (from what I read in the media) are very lax with the lockdowns and quarantine measures. Many countries even let it spread deliberately (Johnson in the UK) under some misguided belief in "herd immunity". The "economy over safety" attitude has been a clear trend from the beginning. You can look up my comments at the beginning of this long thread, where I lamented it several times. And that I am somewhat angry at the right-wing media? I am just allergic to these morons. First they rave about how this is just an ordinary flu and that flu kill many more people atd. Then they go about effectiviness of lock downs. The same arsenal known from climate denialism is employed here. You cannot fix stupid.


----------



## KenOC

From a *BBC story*:

"But there are now more than 215,000 confirmed cases outside China, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

"The WHO said it took more than three months to reach the first 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide, but only 12 days to reach the next 100,000."


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> actually, many western governments underestimated it, and still underestimate it. Even our neigbors Austria and Germany (from what I read in the media) are very lax with the lockdowns and quarantine measures. Many countries even let it spread deliberately (Johnson in the UK) under some misguided belief in "herd immunity". The "economy over safety" attitude has been a clear trend from the beginning. You can look up my comments at the beginning of this long thread, where I lamented it several times. And that I am somewhat angry at the right-wing media? I am just allergic to these morons. First they rave about how this is just an ordinary flu and that flu kill many more people atd. Then they go about effectiviness of lock downs. The same arsenal known from climate denialism is employed here. You cannot fix stupid.


Yes the stupid is everywhere and it creates a certain pressure or paralysis that I believe Trump was the first to break through...

Do you know that the entire leftist media objects to Trump shutting down flights and closing borders? Beginning with China on Jan 31 and later with Europe, Mexico, etc... I may agree that earlier would have been better but you can't blame Trump for all the resistance he was getting to these measures... they were deemed "racist" as usual... accusations of racism have been running interference against sound policy from day 1... so if you think it was too little too late you can blame a lot of people.... but so far the US still has decent chance... and the CDC has constantly praised Trump for taking those actions, estimating the tolls would be much worse if he had handled it the way Democrats wanted him to.... this is why Don Lemon is having a bad week 

Dems want him to suffer as much damage as possible over this...just like half the people on this thread seem to want... And the blindness to this amazes me because it's not even hard to see... I appreciate your reply just to clarify that your scope is not so narrow...


----------



## philoctetes

Some of the stat disparities between different countries can be attributed, by us racists who think this way, to differences in lifestyle and health habits, across age and gender, and maybe even the ways different countries are triaging / managing / allocating services according to individual... which makes Italy look like a bad system...


----------



## KenOC

The WHO tweeted on January 14 "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."

That was _very _early on and cases were few. Most were associated with a single market and could well have caught the virus there. There's no evidence that I know of that the Chinese government was hiding the truth or that their early findings were bogus.

It is discouraging to see so many here anxious to ascribe the worst motives to their "enemies" in so many cases.


----------



## haydnguy

KenOC said:


> The WHO tweeted on January 14 "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."
> 
> That was _very _early on and cases were few. Most were associated with a single market and could well have caught the virus there. There's no evidence that I know of that the Chinese government was hiding the truth or that their early findings were bogus.
> 
> It is discouraging to see so many here anxious to ascribe the worst motives to their "enemies" in so many cases.


As I remember, very early Trump said it would be over in "a couple of months".


----------



## adriesba

What do you all think of this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> The WHO tweeted on January 14 "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."
> 
> That was _very _early on and cases were few. Most were associated with a single market and could well have caught the virus there. There's no evidence that I know of that the Chinese government was hiding the truth or that their early findings were bogus.
> 
> It is discouraging to see so many here anxious to ascribe the worst motives to their "enemies" in so many cases.


Not "early on" at all, it was just actually when we began to discuss it here... weeks after the breakout in Wuhan.. when that announcement came out I was seeing videos from China that obviously disproved China's assertion. and there was enough data to show that this disease was spreading exponentially. But go ahead and disbelieve the evidence, I'm beginning to think you all just aren't worth the trouble...

btw I know your motive for this but I can't say... probably others too...


----------



## philoctetes

So we have one guy saying Jan 14 was "early on" and another saying Jan 31 was "too late"... Weren't the Dems still trying to impeach over Russia back then?

My case rests...and I go with Jack if I have to choose...


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> Not "early on" at all, it was just actually when we began to discuss it here... weeks after the breakout in Wuhan.. when that announcement came out I was seeing videos from China that obviously disproved China's assertion. and there was enough data to show that this disease was spreading exponentially. But go ahead and disbelieve the evidence, I'm beginning to think you all just aren't worth the trouble...
> 
> btw I know your motive for this but I can't say... probably others too...


It was, in fact, very early on. Even eight days later (the first info I have) there were only 580 confirmed cases in China, so on January 14 there would have been far fewer - I'd imagine half that at most. And of course any formal analysis, because of the usual review and QC cycle, would have considered only data even older than that, and an even smaller number of cases.

You know my "motives"? Now you're ascribing evil motives even to me???


----------



## Jacck

adriesba said:


> What do you all think of this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html


I'd say let this guy fight a first-line, employ him in an ICU to oversee one of the ventilators.


----------



## haydnguy

We better stop with politics or "you know who" will close the thread. Let's not let that happen. Please.


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> It was, in fact, very early on. Even eight days later (the first info I have) there were only 580 confirmed cases in China, so on January 14 there would have been far fewer - I'd imagine half that at most. And of course any formal analysis, because of the usual review and QC cycle, would have considered only data even older than that, and an even smaller number of cases.
> 
> You know my "motives"? Now you're ascribing evil motives even to me???


Ken, the key word is "confirmed"... there were many more than the ones confirmed and China was hiding that...

And you actually reinforce my point about our response being too little too late or not... and how hard it was to call... and nobody else sees how these contradictions represent the general climate for decision making at the time...


----------



## mmsbls

This is a difficult time and the coronavirus is a very difficult problem filled with significant anxiety and vastly less than perfect information. I understand that many wonder who's to blame or wish to assign blame for part of the problem. Fine. But this thread is filled with enough unpleasantness without adding to it by negative comments about other members. Please focus on the virus and issues associated with covid-19 rather than TC members.


----------



## philoctetes

Trying to stay in line, boss, thx for the reminder...

I'm actually under stay-at-home orders so options are limited...

If this was a more welcome venue for opinion, I would have much more to say...


----------



## Art Rock

In the Netherlands, the government has tried to avoid a complete lockdown by appealing to common sense, and keeping sufficient distance from each other. Fat chance. Many people are simply too stupid.


----------



## philoctetes

Art Rock said:


> In the Netherlands, the government has tried to avoid a complete lockdown by appealing to common sense, and keeping sufficient distance from each other. Fat chance. Many people are simply too stupid.


Yes, the faith and failure of common sense is why I put some blame on everyday people... if the population is stupid you have to go the extra step to control them and the US is too "free" to do that... universities may be closed for classes but students are all over the country on spring break... which kinda defeats local and regional efforts to contain...


----------



## Jacck

Art Rock said:


> In the Netherlands, the government has tried to avoid a complete lockdown by appealing to common sense, and keeping sufficient distance from each other. Fat chance. Many people are simply too stupid.


we go strickter about it. The police exemplarily gave several €300 fines for not wearing a mask in public. And they hired the cell phone operators to oversee quarantines. After the mandatory quarantines for people coming from Italy (that was like 2-3 weeks ago), they found out using cell phone and credit card data, that half of those broke the quarantine. So now we have fines €100.000 for breaking a quarantine. And they are threatening martial law, if the public continues to misbehave.


----------



## philoctetes

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/china-inexcusably-hid-information-about-coronavirus-and-should-admit-their-wrongdoing

This timeline, compiled from information reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and other sources, shows that China's cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus lasted about three weeks.

Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.

Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.

Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.

Dec. 30:

Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a "pneumonia of unclear cause" and orders them to report any related information.

Dec. 31:

Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus' spread.
China tells the World Health Organization's China office about the cases of an unknown illness.

Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.

An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples.

Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.

Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.

Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.

Jan. 11-17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.

Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus."

Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.

Jan. 18:

The Wuhan Health Commission announces four new cases.
Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck.

Jan. 19: Beijing sends epidemiologists to Wuhan.

Jan. 20:

The first case announced in South Korea.
Zhong Nanshan, a top Chinese doctor who is helping to coordinate the coronavirus response, announces the virus can be passed between people.

Jan. 21:

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms the first coronavirus case in the United States.
CCP flagship newspaper People's Daily mentions the coronavirus epidemic and Xi's actions to fight it for the first time.
China's top political commission in charge of law and order warns that "anyone who deliberately delays and hides the reporting of [virus] cases out of his or her own self-interest will be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity."

Jan. 23: Wuhan and three other cities are put on lockdown. Right around this time, approximately 5 million people leave the city without being screened for the illness.

Jan. 24-30: China celebrates the Lunar New Year holiday. Hundreds of millions of people are in transit around the country as they visit relatives.

Jan. 24: China extends the lockdown to cover 36 million people and starts to rapidly build a new hospital in Wuhan. From this point, very strict measures continue to be implemented around the country for the rest of the epidemic.

The bottom line: China is now trying to create a narrative that it's an example of how to handle this crisis when in fact its early actions led to the virus spreading around the globe.


----------



## Jacck

haydnguy said:


> As I remember, very early Trump said it would be over in "a couple of months".


Trump acted criminally negligently
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...9d8cda-6ad5-11ea-b5f1-a5a804158597_story.html
He had all the intelligence data and warnings from China. But likely lacked the mental faculties to comprehend the danger.


----------



## philoctetes

Anybody know why China kicked WaPo reporters, along with NYT and WSJ reporters, out of the country? Huh! Guess there won't be anybody to verify their claims of "no new infections" how convenient...


----------



## philoctetes

Apparently the TDS is more incurable than the CV so we're screwed either way...


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> Ken, the key word is "confirmed"... there were many more than the ones confirmed and China was hiding that...


Again, I know of no evidence that the Chinese gov't was suppressing the count of confirmed cases after the end of the first week in January. I have been following reports closely since then and observed the curve of new cases to be (and remain) quite smooth until the present. There was one big jag, upwards, when doctors evidently ran out of test kits and began to diagnose based only on physical symptoms and lung X-ray evidence. If you have any evidence for your assertion, I'd appreciate knowing about it.

For the record, on January 30 Dr. Li Wenliang shared news on a private medical chatroom of a cluster of SARS-like cases centered on the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. He advised his colleagues to take measures to protect their families.

Screenshots of Dr. Li's message appeared on the Internet in the open. Dr. Li's boss criticized him for "leaking information" and he was interrogated by Wuhan police on February 3 for "making false comments on the Internet". He was made to sign a letter of admonition promising not to do it again. The police warned him that if he continued to violate the law he would be prosecuted.

Dr. Li himself contracted the virus on January 7 and died on February 6.

Added: Just saw post 1134. Thanks!



> Jan. 11-17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.​




I wasn't aware of that, so it does seem the news of the outbreak was suppressed for longer than I remembered.
​


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> Trump acted criminally negligently...
> He had all the intelligence data and warnings from China. .


That doesn't reconcile with any information available... all *what* information from China? Like this?

Jan. 11-17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

This was no help at all and should not have happened....

Jan. 24-30: China celebrates the Lunar New Year holiday. Hundreds of millions of people are in transit around the country as they visit relatives.


----------



## Jacck

https://translate.google.com/transl...je-musime-rozhodnut-koho-nechame-zomriet.html
an interview with a Slovak doctor working in one of the hospitals in Madrid. Spanish healthcare has collapsed too. They are basically euthanazing people over 75 years of age, because they have to chose whom to save.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> and? The right-wing media has found a new scapegoat? A tween by WHO? Has the US not the best and most extensive intelligence in the world to have accurate information about China? WHO has been warning for some time, that countries are not taking it seriously and are not doing enough.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html
> _"Despite now having some of the toughest measures in the world, Italian authorities fumbled many of those steps early in the contagion - when it most mattered as they sought to preserve basic civil liberties as well as the economy. Italy's piecemeal attempts to cut it off - isolating towns first, then regions, then shutting down the country in an intentionally porous lockdown - always lagged behind the virus's lethal trajectory. "Now we are running after it," said Sandra Zampa"_
> 
> so yes, all those who tried to save the economy and their precious markets failed to implement the countermeasures on time. I am sorry, but it has been clear since the beginning of February what is coming.


Excuse me? The World Health Organization? Are you being serious here, calling it a scapegoat for the right -wing media? This isn't just a tweet. It was their way of disseminating information. Let's stop being obtuse here because it doesn't fit your preconceived theory.


----------



## Tero

It's serious enough. I don't need too many services, but shopping for groceries is in person. I may even got to Target for the groceries next, even though they have fewer, as I can now use the dreaded self checkout and not get too close to people. The danger from a person is much higher than a door handle or toilet seat. Just do not touch your face. I have gloves on as it is still cold enough to wear them. Only the credit card part is fingers and poking.

Nearly all bean coffee, which would last longer, was gone. Bought two bags of ground then. I have some beans too, saving for weeks when it gets even more difficult.

A young couple was into hoarding chips and snacks and soda. They will get fat in front of the TV.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> The WHO tweeted on January 14 "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."
> 
> That was _very _early on and cases were few. Most were associated with a single market and could well have caught the virus there. There's no evidence that I know of that the Chinese government was hiding the truth or that their early findings were bogus.
> 
> It is discouraging to see so many here anxious to ascribe the worst motives to their "enemies" in so many cases.


Except the needs stories that have come out about Chinese scientists knowing it was spread human to human back in December and were told to not spread that information or they would face imprisonment. Other than that, no information whatsoever.


----------



## philoctetes

Mike, you're supposed to take jacck more seriously than any of that Tweener stuff... he's more tuned into the facts...


----------



## philoctetes

All you guys defending China: F-


----------



## KenOC

DrMike said:


> Except the needs stories that have come out about Chinese scientists knowing it was spread human to human back in December and were told to not spread that information or they would face imprisonment. Other than that, no information whatsoever.


I hadn't heard this. Where can I find more information?


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> Added: Just saw post 1134. Thanks!
> 
> I wasn't aware of that, so it does seem the news of the outbreak was suppressed for longer than I remembered.
> [/FONT][/COLOR][/LEFT]


Jeez thx for finally noticing... better late than never... I knew about it when it happened, on Jan 13.. cause I'm a Tweener and I watch Fox more than CNN...

demonstrates how stubborn people are for giving me credit for anything, and btw Mike has mentioned this more than once too... it's a lot of work and I wouldn't be doing it if I didn't feel it's come to a matter of necessity... more important than music...


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> https://translate.google.com/transl...je-musime-rozhodnut-koho-nechame-zomriet.html
> an interview with a Slovak doctor working in one of the hospitals in Madrid. Spanish healthcare has collapsed too. They are basically euthanazing people over 75 years of age, because they have to chose whom to save.


These Europeans aren't doing a very good job of convincing me that state run Healthcare is vastly superior to this crappy system we have in the U.S.


----------



## mmsbls

I have deleted some purely political posts. Please keep on topic.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> I hadn't heard this. Where can I find more information?


Start here.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074622/coronavirus-wuhan-doctor-says-officials-muzzled-her-sharing


----------



## Jacck

DrMike said:


> These Europeans aren't doing a very good job of convincing me that state run Healthcare is vastly superior to this crappy system we have in the U.S.


this has nothing to do with the healthcare, but with politicians, who failed to act. Spain and Italy both had excellent healthcare. You can have the best hospitals in the world, but when the authorities fail to act on time to implement strict population control measures, the healthcare becomes overloaded and collapses. You are no doubt going to see it in New York in maybe a week or two.


----------



## Strange Magic

elgar's ghost noted the severity with politics is conducted today in America, with the resulting polarization of opinions on the handling of the COVID-19 outbreak to date as this NPR article points out

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/8162...ill-dividing-americans-more-than-uniting-them


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> this has nothing to do with the healthcare, but with politicians, who failed to act. Spain and Italy both had excellent healthcare. You can have the best hospitals in the world, but when the authorities fail to act on time to implement strict population control measures, the healthcare becomes overloaded and collapses. You are no doubt going to see it in New York in maybe a week or two.


Maybe, maybe not. Right now I trust the actual data coming out of European countries with government run Healthcare over your predictions of what the U.S. will face. But you are telling me at the same time that government run Healthcare is superior AND that the failure of the government run Healthcare is because the government was incompetent? Are you seeing the problem with your logic here? Will government run Healthcare only work when there are geniuses in power? Because there ain't a snowball's chance in hell of that ever being the case.


----------



## KenOC

DrMike said:


> Start here.
> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...han-doctor-says-officials-muzzled-her-sharing


Dr. Ai Fen reported the cluster on Dec. 30, the same day that Dr. Li reported it in his chat group (probably based on Dr. Ai's evidence). Both were suppressed. But neither seems to have said anything about human-to-human transmission, though both must have suspected it. Later things became even clearer. Dr. Ai: "If there's no people-to-people transmission, why did the patients continue to increase after the Huanan market was closed?"


----------



## philoctetes

"this has nothing to do with the healthcare, but with politicians"

I don't believe it's black-and-white... as with WHO, CDC, etc it's the healthcare system and oversight that owns and operates the resources and makes the "educated" guesses about future needs, costs, inventories, deployments, etc. Politicians can't do that and should defer to the "experts" for advice... Maybe in Italy there was no consultation between players but that's not how it should be... meanwhile it would appear in China that doctors attempting to share "truth" were punished or silenced, so yes that might be considered political...

seriously, does anybody understand how this stuff works in real life?


----------



## senza sordino

> From the Guardian News
> 
> Disney+ has become the latest streaming service to downgrade its quality, just a day ahead of its UK launch on Monday.
> 
> The Walt Disney Company's chairman of direct-to-consumer and international, Kevin Mayer, said the decision had been taken in response to a request from the European Commission.
> 
> It comes after Netflix said it would temporarily reduce the quality of videos on its platform to ease pressure on internet service providers during the coronavirus outbreak.


We're all in this together. A small sacrifice in streaming quality and we can all get through this.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Dr. Ai Fen reported the cluster on Dec. 30, the same day that Dr. Li reported it in his chat group (probably based on Dr. Ai's evidence). Both were suppressed. But neither seems to have said anything about human-to-human transmission, though both must have suspected it. Later things became even clearer. Dr. Ai: "If there's no people-to-people transmission, why did the patients continue to increase after the Huanan market was closed?"


Continue here:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-started-chinas-early-coronavirus-missteps-11583508932?mod=article_inline


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> I've been posting on this thread since it originated on 1/23... before the virus hit the US... the majority of the expectations I've had the courage to post IN ADVANCE, drawing info from a number of sources, relating to viral spread and its economic impact, have come to reality... so that has been my focus from the beginning... and I have a long-term perspective on what was happening 6 weeks ago that many late-comers here don't seem seem to have...


Why the puffery? You didn't post in this thread until 11 days after it started, after a number of us had posted information and viewpoints that turned out to be accurate.


----------



## annaw

Jacck said:


> this has nothing to do with the healthcare, but with politicians, who failed to act. Spain and Italy both had excellent healthcare. You can have the best hospitals in the world, but when the authorities fail to act on time to implement strict population control measures, the healthcare becomes overloaded and collapses. You are no doubt going to see it in New York in maybe a week or two.


Yes, for some reason it seems that people didn't take it too seriously in the beginning (e.g media compared it to flu ergo lessening its importance) and therefore didn't do anything about it. Countries where it spread later are managing it better than for example Italy which was one of the first European countries where SARS-Cov spread. One argument why China has got it under control so quickly is that their government can do things that most EU governments really cannot.


----------



## KenOC

The Huanan Seafood Market was closed on January 1 in hopes of preventing new cases. Just for yuks, here are some of the things sold there (from Wiki).

Badgers[20]
Bats[21]
Beavers[22]
Camel[3][20]
Civets[23]
Crocodiles[3]
Dogs[23]
Donkeys[20]
Fish[16]
Foxes[3]
Giant salamanders[3]
Hedgehog[24]
"Koalas"[12][25][a]
Marmots[21]
Ostrich[7]
Otters[23]
Pangolins[26][27]
Peacocks[3]
Pheasants[8]
Pigs[20]
Porcupines[3]
Rabbit organs[28]
Rats[3]
Sheep[20]
Shrimp[17]
Spotted deer[28]
Turtles[17]
Venomous snakes (including Bungarus multicinctus)[29]
Wolf puppies[3]

It's a shame that I already bought my new cookbook: "Bats in a Blender -- Delicious Recipes for All Occasions".


----------



## Guest

DrMike said:


> Continue here:
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-started-chinas-early-coronavirus-missteps-11583508932?mod=article_inline


And then notice what the WHO actually said. They said:


> Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.


The people who actually were investigating it WERE finding evidence. Chinese authorities weren't investigating it. They were imprisonment anybody even talking about it without their permission.


----------



## Guest

annaw said:


> Yes, for some reason it seems that people didn't take it too seriously in the beginning (e.g media compared it to flu ergo lessening its importance) and therefore didn't do anything about it. Countries where it spread later are managing it better than for example Italy which was one of the first European countries where SARS-Cov spread. One argument why China has got it under control so quickly is that their government can do things that most EU governments really cannot.


Like lock up and close off large numbers of people. Yes - an admirable quality of authoritarian regimes. After all, they have had years of practice with the Uighurs and Falun Gong.


----------



## annaw

DrMike said:


> And then notice what the WHO actually said. They said:
> 
> The people who actually were investigating it WERE finding evidence. Chinese authorities weren't investigating it. They were imprisonment anybody even talking about it without their permission.


It's kind of weird because at the same time all major trustworthy science journals (e.g Science, Nature, The Cell) were full of Chinese studies on SARS-Cov-2 - take this for example https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. It's been published on 29th of January but conducted and submitted to the journal already earlier. It also shows human-to-human transmission and has been written in China.


----------



## Guest

annaw said:


> It's kind of weird because at the same time all major trustworthy science journals (e.g Science, Nature, The Cell) were full of Chinese studies on SARS-Cov-2 - take this for example https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. It's been published on 29th of January but conducted and submitted to the journal already earlier. It also shows human-to-human transmission and has been written in China.


I couldn't find the submission date. It was published a full 2 weeks after the WHO tweet. Do you have other info about when it was submitted? I fully believe that the government DID know of human to human transmission earlier and then only allowed that information out as cases started emerging elsewhere and the new push was to manipulate the narrative that rather than suppressing information, they were doing all they could.


----------



## annaw

DrMike said:


> Like lock up and close off large numbers of people. Yes - an admirable quality of authoritarian regimes. After all, they have had years of practice with the Uighurs and Falun Gong.


I'm not sure whether it's a question of lockup itself - many countries have had to implement a strict quarantine but from what I've *heard* China also used more ... forceful ways to keep people between four walls.


----------



## Bulldog

There has been a significant spike in the United States of gun sales. I think that most of the buyers are worried and well-intentioned. They fear the loss of their freedoms as civil liberties are being greatly restricted and see all of it as an attempt of the power structure to absorb additional controls on the path to socialism. I don't agree with them, but I understand their concerns.


----------



## KenOC

Bad and worse news for Italy, whose population is about 4% of China's.


----------



## annaw

DrMike said:


> I couldn't find the submission date. It was published a full 2 weeks after the WHO tweet. Do you have other info about when it was submitted? I fully believe that the government DID know of human to human transmission earlier and then only allowed that information out as cases started emerging elsewhere and the new push was to manipulate the narrative that rather than suppressing information, they were doing all they could.


Submission date is not always published but I'll check if I can find it.

Conducting and publishing a scientific study takes A LOT OF time and although the process feels to have been faster than usually, the articles are usually peer-reviewed to be considered trustworthy - I doubt they managed publishing that in two weeks when already the review process is normal situation can take months in some cases.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> The Huanan Seafood Market was closed on January 1 in hopes of preventing new cases. Just for yuks, here are some of the things sold there (from Wiki).
> 
> Badgers[20]
> Bats[21]
> Beavers[22]
> Camel[3][20]
> Civets[23]
> Crocodiles[3]
> Dogs[23]
> Donkeys[20]
> Fish[16]
> Foxes[3]
> Giant salamanders[3]
> Hedgehog[24]
> "Koalas"[12][25][a]
> Marmots[21]
> Ostrich[7]
> Otters[23]
> Pangolins[26][27]
> Peacocks[3]
> Pheasants[8]
> Pigs[20]
> Porcupines[3]
> Rabbit organs[28]
> Rats[3]
> Sheep[20]
> Shrimp[17]
> Spotted deer[28]
> Turtles[17]
> Venomous snakes (including Bungarus multicinctus)[29]
> Wolf puppies[3]
> 
> It's a shame that I already bought my new cookbook: "Bats in a Blender -- Delicious Recipes for All Occasions".


Their killing wild animals for food, medicine, or sport is bad because there are 1.3 billion people in China and the supply of these animals is not inexhaustible, can't meet their enormous demand. As a direct result some animal species are going extinct.

But I don't understand why China's eating habits are considered especially dangerous. I understand that the virus mutated from one that affects certain wild animal(s) to now affect humans. But doesn't consuming domesticated animals have the same crossover risks? Didn't the bird flu start from a virus that affected domesticated birds as well as wild birds?


----------



## annaw

Open Book said:


> Their killing wild animals for food, medicine, or sport is bad because there are 1.3 billion people in China and the supply of these animals is not inexhaustible, can't meet their enormous demand. As a direct result some animal species are going extinct.
> 
> But I don't understand why China's eating habits are considered especially dangerous. I understand that the virus mutated from one that affects certain wild animal(s) to now affect humans. But doesn't consuming domesticated animals have the same crossover risks? Didn't the bird flu start from a virus that affected domesticated birds as well as wild birds?


Some think that the mechanism is sth like this: bats --> [??? another animal ???] --> humans. It's very difficult to determine who was the animal in-between that was actually eaten by humans. Because Chinese market is full of just exotic but also illegal stuff, it's very difficult to determine the species that transmitted it to humans. That's just one theory I read though  .


----------



## philoctetes

Don't look but here's another WHO misfire from Jan 30


----------



## Guest

annaw said:


> Submission date is not always published but I'll check if I can find it.
> 
> Conducting and publishing a scientific study takes A LOT OF time and although the process was faster than usually, the articles are usually peer-reviewed to be considered trustworthy - I doubt they managed publishing that in two weeks when already the review process is normal situation can take months in some cases.


Oh, I have seen some greatly expedited papers published in top journals (like Nature) especially when the topic had political ramifications.

But I didn't say the data was brand new. My belief is that they were sitting on the data until they couldn't hide it anymore.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> Their killing wild animals for food, medicine, or sport is bad because there are 1.3 billion people in China and the supply of these animals is not inexhaustible, can't meet their enormous demand. As a direct result some animal species are going extinct.
> 
> But I don't understand why China's eating habits are considered especially dangerous. I understand that the virus mutated from one that affects certain wild animal(s) to now affect humans. But doesn't consuming domesticated animals have the same crossover risks? Didn't the bird flu start from a virus that affected domesticated birds as well as wild birds?


Domesticated animals and meat processing in other countries is highly regulated. These wet markets are a constant source of new viruses. We already know that this virus, SARS, and HIV are thanks to these wet markets.

The flu naturally infects other species. Birds and pigs are the ones humans know the most. In those hosts, multiple strains can be present and so when new viruses are produced, the generic material gets mixed. But it still isn't quite the same as these wet markets.


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> Their killing wild animals for food, medicine, or sport is bad because there are 1.3 billion people in China and the supply of these animals is not inexhaustible, can't meet their enormous demand. As a direct result some animal species are going extinct..?


"Wild" animals are (or were) *extensively farm-raised* in China. "Nearly 20,000 wildlife farms raising species including peacocks, civet cats, porcupines, ostriches, wild geese and boar have been shut down across China in the wake of the coronavirus, in a move that has exposed the hitherto unknown size of the industry. Until a few weeks ago wildlife farming was still being promoted by government agencies as an easy way for rural Chinese people to get rich."


----------



## annaw

DrMike said:


> Oh, I have seen some greatly expedited papers published in top journals (like Nature) especially when the topic had political ramifications.
> 
> But I didn't say the data was brand new. My belief is that they were sitting on the data until they couldn't hide it anymore.


Even if speeded up, Nature's publication policy is thorough and ergo will take some time (https://www.nature.com/nature-research/editorial-policies/peer-review#general-information).


----------



## Guest

annaw said:


> Even if speeded up, Nature's publication policy is thorough and ergo will take some time (https://www.nature.com/nature-research/editorial-policies/peer-review#general-information).


Be that as it may, I know of an actual Nature paper where my friend was first author that was expedited in as sorry of a timeframe as you don't believe possible.


----------



## Jacck

annaw said:


> Even if speeded up, Nature's publication policy is thorough and ergo will take some time (https://www.nature.com/nature-research/editorial-policies/peer-review#general-information).


there are preprints possible, ie the paper can be published online with peer-review process still pending. I think I read some of those Chinese papers this way. In physics there is the arxiv, in medicine there is the lesser known medrxiv
https://www.medrxiv.org/


----------



## aleazk

aleazk said:


> Sooo... this seems to be an unpopular topic right now, but it must be addressed since it's at the very core of this pandemic, and of posible future pandemics as well. Now, the 2002 SARS epidemic was caused by a virus that, according to many scientists, surely originated in one of those disgusting wild animals markets. Because of this, pretty much all experts agreed that new epidemics would come from those same sources. What measures were taken by the chinese authorities? Well, they made a cosmetic ban of wild animal trade for a couple of months and was lifted after that. So, the obvious thing happened: the current coronavirus, it seems, originated from a pangolin in the Wuhan wild animals market. Chinese society is one of the most oppresed in terms of state surveilance. The authorities never realized that wild animals markets were still thriving? Of course they knew, they allowed it! And they also knew about their danger. So, the chinese authorities, past and present, were extremelly irresponsible and cynic. To me, they are the sole responsibles of this pandemic. All the blame and condemnation should fall into them.
> 
> Considering the extreme economic damage that this is causing in western countries, what should the international community do to ensure that these markets are definitely closed? And also all the illegal trade of wild animals that goes to the industry of "chinese traditional medicine", a pseudo-science of the most infamous kind. Should the West impose economic sanctions until they show evidence that they are doing the right things? Is this even possible, considering the conspicuous role of China in the world economy?
> 
> What do you think about this issue?


2007 (!) paper by Chinese scientists pretty much describing all of what I was saying here: https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660

From the Introduction:



Paper's Introduction said:


> Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is a novel virus that caused the first major pandemic of the new millennium (89, 180, 259). The rapid economic growth in southern China has led to an increasing demand for animal proteins including those from exotic game food animals such as civets. Large numbers and varieties of these wild game mammals in overcrowded cages and the lack of biosecurity measures in wet markets allowed the jumping of this novel virus from animals to human (353, 376). Its capacity for human-to-human transmission, the lack of awareness in hospital infection control, and international air travel facilitated the rapid global dissemination of this agent. Over 8,000 people were affected, with a crude fatality rate of 10%. The acute and dramatic impact on health care systems, economies, and societies of affected countries within just a few months of early 2003 was unparalleled since the last plague. The small reemergence of SARS in late 2003 after the resumption of the wildlife market in southern China and the recent discovery of a very similar virus in horseshoe bats, bat SARS-CoV, suggested that SARS can return if conditions are fit for the introduction, mutation, amplification, and transmission of this dangerous virus (45, 190, 215, 347). Here, we review the biology of the virus in relation to the epidemiology, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, laboratory diagnosis, animal models or hosts, and options for treatment, immunization, and infection control.


Everyone knew something like the current pandemic was going to happen, yet they did nothing to attack the problems described in the article.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> "Wild" animals are (or were) *extensively farm-raised* in China. "Nearly 20,000 wildlife farms raising species including peacocks, civet cats, porcupines, ostriches, wild geese and boar have been shut down across China in the wake of the coronavirus, in a move that has exposed the hitherto unknown size of the industry. Until a few weeks ago wildlife farming was still being promoted by government agencies as an easy way for rural Chinese people to get rich."


I knew about tiger farms from this excellent book but didn't realize the extent of this kind of farming.

Lost on Planet China: One Man's Attempt to Understand the World's Most Mystifying Nation 
Paperback - May 12, 2009
by J. Maarten Troost (Author)

https://smile.amazon.com/Lost-Planet-China-Understand-Mystifying/dp/0767922018/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=planet+china&qid=1584831312&sr=8-1

All your answers are helpful but it's still not clear to me.

Is high tech agriculture in the U.S. safer because the animals are periodically checked for unusual viruses and other diseases? I don't see what hygiene alone has to do with a virus mutating to affect a new (human) host.

What do they do if they detect a new virus in livestock, to keep us safe?


----------



## Jacck

aleazk said:


> Everyone knew something like the current pandemic was going to happen, yet they did nothing to attack the problems described in the article.


who everyone? The reason that Taiwan and Singapore managed the current virus so well was because they were taught their lesson by SARS. Even China learned then. The West did not learn. It will learn now.


----------



## senza sordino

I was thinking about the hoarding today. And thinking about how my behaviour regarding food has changed this week. I get my groceries delivered, and if I need some other food, I will wander off to my local grocery store. Now I avoid that grocery shop all together. I am more careful about the food I use. I was never much of a food waster, but now I'm even more careful not to waste food.

If this pandemic lasts a long time and gets much worse, and then supply chains get disrupted, I wonder if we would we have to ration food, like people did during WWII? I mean, we would each be issued a ration book that we take to the grocery store. 

My mind is going to the darkest places. We've been a culture of gluttony for a long time, and this could all change.


----------



## Guest

senza sordino said:


> I was thinking about the hoarding today. And thinking about how my behaviour regarding food has changed this week. I get my groceries delivered, and if I need some other food, I will wander off to my local grocery store. Now I avoid that grocery shop all together. I am more careful about the food I use. I was never much of a food waster, but now I'm even more careful not to waste food.
> 
> If this pandemic lasts a long time and gets much worse, and then supply chains get disrupted, I wonder if we would we have to ration food, like people did during WWII? I mean, we would each be issued a ration book that we take to the grocery store.
> 
> My mind is going to the darkest places. *We've been a culture of gluttony for a long time, and this could all change*.


Not all of us. Our family has been very frugal for a long time. And the Mormon community was mocked for so many years regarding their keeping at least a 3-month food supply if not a year.


----------



## annaw

Jacck said:


> there are preprints possible, ie the paper can be published online with peer-review process still pending. I think I read some of those Chinese papers this way. In physics there is the arxiv, in medicine there is the lesser known medrxiv
> https://www.medrxiv.org/


Yup, I know a lot was published there and in biorxiv too.


----------



## DaveM

I knew there was bound to be a problem back in 2008, from Survivor China, Season 15 when in a challenge the contestants had to eat chicken fetuses just removed from the shell before birth still wrapped up in an egg-shaped ball, wings and all, and this said to be a dish the Chinese eat.


----------



## mmsbls

There's a lot of negative stories concerning Covid-19, but there are also impressive positive ones as well.

A company that manufactures smart thermometers tracks the spread of the flu using data from those taking their temperatures. The same company is now using that data to predict the spread of Covid-19 by looking for spikes of high temperatures that exceed what's expected from the flu. In theory the data could allow more focused testing and identification of Covid-19 clusters faster than conventional methods.

Researchers have developed a method to identify all the proteins in human cells that viruses interact with. Apparently what recently would take a few years was completed in a few weeks for Covid-19 with the group identifying over 400 proteins. With this list of proteins, researchers can search for approved drugs that are know to interact with the proteins. These drugs can be tested as potential treatments for the virus.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> I knew there was bound to be a problem back in 2008, from Survivor China, Season 15 when in a challenge the contestants had to eat chicken fetuses just removed from the shell before birth still wrapped up in an egg-shaped ball, wings and all, and this said to be a dish the Chinese eat.


In the movie "So I Married an Ax Murderer " Mike Myers' character jokes that most Scottish cuisine is based on a dare. Clearly he was not familiar with China.


----------



## philoctetes

The smart thermometer things is cool if enough people use it...

Anyway, that report on chloroquine is still the 800-poound gorilla as they say... so here ya go

from Nature

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

and Elsevier

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300881

Seems this information is not getting around and the media is bashing Trump for talking about it...


----------



## DaveM

I am excited by the results of the very limited trials of hydroxychloroquine in France and China because, even though they weren’t controlled, there was some objectivity in the results since they tested for the presence of the virus. Also, hydroxychloroquine has been used for years in a lot of people with a reasonably low side effect profile. It’s nice to know that it halts the virus in vitro, but that has never been a guarantee that it would work in patients. Remdesivir, that is an antiviral being tested with coronavirus halted the Ebola virus in vitro, but didn’t work on patients. There have been some possible positive results with coronavirus patients

I’m more concerned with the use of chloroquine because it is little used now due to some worrisome side effects, one being that one pill can be lethal if swallowed by very young children. It is very cheap to manufacture in large quantities so they are creating large amounts to use on patients. I won’t be surprised to hear that there were some bad things that happened as a result. But liability lawsuits won’t be a problem there.

The problem with Trump is that he has had little or no perspective when talking about these drugs. He has created the impression that they will likely work and that they have been sanctioned by the FDA. Already, there are shortages of both chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine.


----------



## aleazk

Jacck said:


> who everyone? The reason that Taiwan and Singapore managed the current virus so well was because they were taught their lesson by SARS. Even China learned then. The West did not learn. It will learn now.


The West has nothing to do with the chinese eating wild animals, which, as described in the paper, is one of the major potential sources of zoonosis. The chinese authorities are the ones that didn't learn, since they didn't make a permanent ban of wild animals markets after the 2003 sars epidemic.


----------



## KenOC

California has just announced that random testing has been taking place in three counties to get a baseline on how many out there are really infected. The number of symptomless and otherwise unreported cases is said to be substantial. The short TV news story implied that these people were contagious.


----------



## philoctetes

I've been cautious to criticize other countries except for China so far, but with 800 more deaths in 24 hours in Italy... and seeing that Italy is only taking a "shelter in place" policy today, same as I've been on since Monday, I must agree with jacck and anybody who else who says Italy has, well, really blown it.... and it probably is political or economic because they are simply lagging other countries (US) on prevention while leading the death rate...and I do fear there is a chance for the same in the US, as we have the same love for travel that helped get Italy in trouble... NY needs to clamp down hard and other states need to be vigilant...

Where I live I'm not close to a lot of people, and I want to keep ti that way.... so I think city dwellers should especially quarantine themselves and not come out here for their fun and freedom.. but that's exactly what's likely to happen with everything shut down in the cities...


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> California has just announced that random testing has been taking place in three counties to get a baseline on how many out there are really infected. The number of symptomless and otherwise unreported cases is said to be substantial. The short TV news story implied that these people were contagious.


there is a study from Oxford University that estimated COVID-19 global case fatality rates
"Our current best assumption, as of the 17th March, is the CFR in > 70s is approximately 1%. In the total population, it's about 0.125%."
https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

As a very simple math combined with the Oxford estimation of the fatality of 0.125% for the general population and 1% for above 70, it can be estimated that about more than 2 million people are infected in Italy now. Among them if 500k people are above 70 considering the higher ratio of older population in Italy (espeicically in the Northern Italy), 1% of them are about 5000. So it can explain about 5000 deaths in Italy. If half of those 500k people are concentrated in Lombardy area, we can understand why the region is suffering so much now. Also if there are already more than 2 million infected people in Italy with half of them from Lombardy area (The population of Lombardy is 10 million) , we can understrand why the lockdown is not working at least until now. It is too wide spread already. The case of one northern Italian town of Vo Euganeo is very consisten with this estimation. The town has 3300 residents and they tested for the entire population at Feb. 21 when the first death came from the town. The confirmation ratio was 3% at that time. So after one month assuming 10% infection (or 1 million infection) in Lombardy seems to be reasonable.
Also this explains why the initial source of infection in other European countries came from Northern Italy when they were skiing there. The bad news from this estimation is that the death will increase rapidly in the coming weeks. The good news is that Lombardy area will see the herd immunity effect soon if the infection in Lombardy reaches a couple million.

this is my current best estimate of the pandemic. It is far more contagious than believed, but also less deadly. The number of dead could stilll go into hundreds of thousands worldwide


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Bulldog said:


> There has been a significant spike in the United States of gun sales. I think that most of the buyers are worried and well-intentioned. They fear the loss of their freedoms as civil liberties are being greatly restricted and see all of it as an attempt of the power structure to absorb additional controls on the path to socialism. I don't agree with them, but I understand their concerns.


These buyers might not be afraid of the government but instead might be worried that neighbors or other's who are short on supplies wiill want take theirs and do not trust the cops to show up in time.


----------



## Open Book

aleazk said:


> The West has nothing to do with the chinese eating wild animals, which, as described in the paper, is one of the major potential sources of zoonosis. The chinese authorities are the ones that didn't learn, since they didn't make a permanent ban of wild animals markets after the 2003 sars epidemic.


The Chinese can't be the only people in the world who eat wild animals. In parts of Africa they supplement their diet with bush meat, which they hunt, not farm. Didn't HIV came from Africans eating monkeys? I'm sure this kind of diet is widespread in the world.


----------



## Guest

Johnnie Burgess said:


> These buyers might not be afraid of the government but instead might be worried that neighbors or other's who are short on supplies wiill want take theirs and do not trust the cops to show up in time.


Saw a funny meme. It said if you are out of toilet paper and need to steal some, look for a house with a Bernie sign - they won't have any guns.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> The Chinese can't be the only people in the world who eat wild animals. In parts of Africa they supplement their diet with bush meat, which they hunt, not farm. Didn't HIV came from Africans eating monkeys? I'm sure this kind of diet is widespread in the world.


Yes, I have posted this multiple times now in this thread. HIV likely came from an African wet market, most likely a mutated chimpanzee strain of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus - the chimpanzee strain of SIV is genetically the closest to HIV.


----------



## philoctetes

Johnnie Burgess said:


> These buyers might not be afraid of the government but instead might be worried that neighbors or other's who are short on supplies wiill want take theirs and do not trust the cops to show up in time.


Um, exactly... when the home invaders come I intend to fight them off.. not thinking about the government that much.... yet... but I'm probably not the type to make a stand against a SWAT team by myself...

People living in normal communities have no clue about invaders.... trespassers, homeless, criminals, and that newer species known as the trimmigrant, whatever, they are everywhere... So many new people have come to the West to enjoy public land that that they cease to distinguish between public lands, of which there once was plenty, and the private lands that surround them.... and they are destroying local economies through inflation...


----------



## KenOC

Be careful with TV news. National TV just announced that, for the third day, China reported no new infections. This is false. For the third day, China reported no new infections in Hubei province, including Wuhan. There are still new cases and deaths elsewhere in China reported every day, although the numbers are well down from their peak.


----------



## aleazk

Open Book said:


> The Chinese can't be the only people in the world who eat wild animals. In parts of Africa they supplement their diet with bush meat, which they hunt, not farm. Didn't HIV came from Africans eating monkeys? I'm sure this kind of diet is widespread in the world.


Not sure what's your point. Yes, so what? But we are speaking about the chinese right now, and this current pandemic, and how it's a consequence of them not listening what their own scientists were saying since 2003. Actually, they knew it, since they banned wild animal trade for a couple of months after the 2003 sars, but it was lifted, thing which should have never happened. And here we are in 2020...


----------



## aleazk

It seems they finally learned the lesson. Too bad that so many people had to die for that...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/science/coronavirus-pangolin-wildlife-ban-china.html


----------



## philoctetes

Just thinking maybe it's the paywall that is most responsible for blocking information....


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> Just thinking maybe it's the paywall that is most responsible for blocking information....


The same story, without paywall, is linked from #1173.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

We are considering in our little town a revolutionary act of free and peaceful assembly . Oh ,
it may be of drunken courage . A campfire . A gathering in public view . Maybe in a week or so
when the weather in the evening is pleasant . To breathe , to breathe .


----------



## Open Book

aleazk said:


> Not sure what's your point. Yes, so what? But we are speaking about the chinese right now, and this current pandemic, and how it's a consequence of them not listening what their own scientists were saying since 2003. Actually, they knew it, since they banned wild animal trade for a couple of months after the 2003 sars, but it was lifted, thing which should have never happened. And here we are in 2020...


My point is that infection could come from many places in the world. I get it that it shouldn't have come from China since they were warned. The next time it could come from somewhere else, what are world leaders going to do to prevent that in the future? That's my point, prevention not blame.


----------



## philoctetes

I guess the world leaders will have go around and inspect every market for themselves, since apparently nobody else can do it...


----------



## DaveM

Varick said:


> The only idiocy I see of this is how you took a completely coherent argument (right or wrong) and made it completely incoherent that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Dangerous is practically shutting down the entire global economy based on an unkown so HUGE that without a baseline number (that NO ONE still has), no one can tell anything about this virus.
> 
> Tens if not Hundreds of MILLIONS of people's lives have been negatively affected at best and devastated at worst for 13,000 deaths worldwide. And you want to lecture ME about "idiocy" and what's "dangerous???" Wow, that's some world you live in. How are the unicorns?
> 
> V


_
'no one can tell anything about this virus_'? Only that it has spread around the world like wildfire. Is more contagious than the flu and has killed a lot of people in a short period of time when they don't take precautions?

So, what are you suggesting? Business as usual?


----------



## Varick

DaveM said:


> _
> 'no one can tell anything about this virus_'? Only that it has spread around the world like wildfire. Is more contagious than the flu and has killed a lot of people in a short period of time when they don't take precautions?
> 
> So, what are you suggesting? Business as usual?


You have no idea if it's more contagious than the flu, because no one does. Reason? Because NO ONE has ANY idea how many people actually have it. No one has the tools or amount of test kits to do a controlled base line test to find out how many people have it. And so what even if it IS more contagious? What if right now as I type this 80,000,000 in the US alone have it and are carriers? Well then it's obviously not that bad now is it? So, how contagious it is, may be completely irrelevant. This is proof right here that almost everyone is looking at the something (contagiousness) in the wrong context. And I'm supposed to assume they're looking at everything else about this in the right context?? And making the right decisions?? They can't even get the basics right!

A lot of people in a short period of time? Since we've known about this virus, the regular flu has killed A LOT more than 13,000 people world wide. In the US alone, Approx 31,000 people have died from the regular flu since Oct 2019. Approx 18,000 people die in auto accidents every year in the US. "A lot of people" is a very relative statement.

What do I suggest? I suggest not shutting down close to the entire world economy on so many unkowns. Precautions? Sure. Wash your hands a little more often. Stay away from the elderly if you can since all indicators point to them being the most vulnerable. But we've already ruined MILLIONS of livelihoods on something that, so far, isn't even CLOSE to being as bad as the regular flu.

I may be wrong. This may turn out to be as bad as the Spanish Flu (God forbid)(or is calling that racist now??? [shakes head in sarcastic astonishment of the idiocy of some people]) or even as bad as the black plague (God forbid). But as of now, there is no evidence that it will be that bad. Like I stated some pages ago, this follows the same pattern as every other scare in my lifetime with all the same hysterics crying that the sky is falling and EVERY SINGLE TIME were so completely wrong. Only difference, our gov'ts never ACTED this hysterically before. President Obama didn't call for a State of Emergency until 1,000 people died in the US from H1N1. And we didn't do close to these draconian actions. But maybe THIS TIME, they'll get it right. Maybe... but any rational person who has a modicum of ability for critical thinking, couldn't possibly blame me for being skeptical.

V


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> _..._So, what are you suggesting? Business as usual?


As world populations continue to burgeon, I have to believe that pandemics such as this one will come more frequently. It's not irrational to question whether the better course might not be to avoid the tremendous economic dislocations that may result in long-term drops in the standard of living and simply let the diseases burn through our populations and take (mostly) our older members a few years early.

I don't anticipate much agreement with this approach of course!


----------



## DaveM

Varick said:


> I may be wrong. This may turn out to be as bad as the Spanish Flu (God forbid)(or is calling that racist now??? [shakes head in sarcastic astonishment of the idiocy of some people]) or even as bad as the black plague (God forbid). But as of now, there is no evidence that it will be that bad. Like I stated some pages ago, this follows the same pattern as every other scare in my lifetime with all the same hysterics crying that the sky is falling and EVERY SINGLE TIME were so completely wrong. Only difference, our gov'ts never ACTED this hysterically before. President Obama didn't call for a State of Emergency until 1,000 people died in the US from H1N1. And we didn't do close to these draconian actions. But maybe THIS TIME, they'll get it right. Maybe... but any rational person who has a modicum of ability for critical thinking, couldn't possibly blame me for being skeptical.
> 
> V


Yes, you may be wrong and if that's possible I don't know why you are essentially calling people idiots and irrational. It is not a bunch of fools who have determined that it is more contagious and deadly than the flu. The mortality has already been estimated to be 10x that of the flu. One simply can't compare the deaths from the 'regular flu' with those from coronavirus.. The flu does not kill several members in a family in a short period of time and it doesn't kill healthcare workers the way Covid19 has.

It's entirely possible that some of the actions taken with the economy etc. may turn out in hindsight to be an overreaction, but your plan that everyone should treat this like it's no big deal -wash hands and hope your elderly relatives don't die from it- seems rather foolhardy.


----------



## Minor Sixthist

> I may be wrong. This may turn out to be as bad as the Spanish Flu (God forbid)(or is calling that racist now??? [shakes head in sarcastic astonishment of the idiocy of some people]) or even as bad as the black plague (God forbid). But as of now, there is no evidence that it will be that bad. Like I stated some pages ago, this follows the same pattern as every other scare in my lifetime with all the same hysterics crying that the sky is falling and EVERY SINGLE TIME were so completely wrong. Only difference, our gov'ts never ACTED this hysterically before. President Obama didn't call for a State of Emergency until 1,000 people died in the US from H1N1. And we didn't do close to these draconian actions. *But maybe THIS TIME, they'll get it right.* Maybe... but any rational person who has a modicum of ability for critical thinking, couldn't possibly blame me for being skeptical.


'Get it right' how? What exactly are you even calling for, to be less careful?



> (or is calling that racist now??? [shakes head in sarcastic astonishment of the idiocy of some people])


We get it, you would favor being deliberately divisive over just calling the virus by its generic, scientifically standard name. Call it coronavirus or COVID-19 instead of Chinese flu? How un-American of us...


----------



## Woodduck

Some people have apparently not been following this very closely. From an article on NPR's web site:

RATE OF INFECTION

"In the U.S....in recent years about 8.3% of the total population get sick from flu each season, a CDC study found; including people who carry flu virus but show no symptoms, that estimate ranges to up to 20%."

"A March 19 letter from researchers at the University of Hong Kong and Harvard, published in Nature Medicine, predicted that globally, 'at least one-quarter to one-half of the population will very likely become infected [with COVID-19], absent drastic control measures or a vaccine.'"

"An influential modeling analysis released March 16 from Imperial College of London predicted a worse-case scenario in which 81% of the U.S. population could get infected over the next few months, if no actions were taken to slow or contain the spread of the virus."

RATE OF TRANSMISSION

"Data from China shows that each coronavirus case seems to infect around 2 to 2.5 additional people. That's higher than flu. The average patient spreads the flu virus to about 1.3 others."

"New research suggests that the higher number of infections per coronavirus patient may be related to the frequency of presymptomatic transmission - when people who have been infected are not yet showing symptoms but in fact could be contagious."

"It's also possible that coronavirus can be transmitted by other methods. Researchers are trying to determine, for example, if tiny droplets can stay suspended in the air in contagious doses, or if fecal matter can be a source of infection."

RATE OF HOSPITALIZATION

"Data from China shows that 20% of COVID-19 patients, though, are serious enough to get sent to the hospital. That's about ten times more often than flu. Even though a great many people are hospitalized for the flu...the rate of hospitalization is far lower: 1-2% percent of cases, according to the CDC."

LENGTH OF HOSPITALIZATION

"Once a patient with a serious case of coronavirus is hospitalized, the average stay is 11 days, according to a study based on January data from Wuhan - about twice as long as the 5-to-6 day average stay for flu."

MORTALITY

"Initial data shows that coronavirus is deadlier. In the U.S., seasonal flu kills 1 in a thousand people (0.1%) who get sick from it ...By contrast, COVID-19 is currently estimated to kill at least 10 people per thousand infected (1%). 'It's about ten times more lethal than the seasonal flu,' said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease."

TREATMENT

"A drug called Tamiflu aims to stop the flu virus from replicating in the body and can lessen the severity of symptoms...There are no approved treatments for COVID-19 yet, though researchers are racing to see if pills for other ailments could work against coronavirus, and to develop specific therapies that would lessen symptoms and hasten recovery."

VACCINES

"For vaccines that could prevent COVID-19, Dr. Fauci said it will take at least a year to a year and a half for a vaccine to be available to the public. "

SEASONALITY

"While flu cases are found year-round, the flu does wane when the weather gets warm."

"Dr. Bruce Aylward, an adviser to WHO, says don't count on a similar pattern for COVID-19, which is thriving in warm, tropical places: 'It's roaring in Singapore. It's not flu season in Singapore. It's roaring in the southern part of China. It's not flu season.'"

"Researchers will only know if coronavirus follows flu patterns by seeing whether infections decline as the seasons change. There's the possibility that it won't, so in the meantime, Aylward thinks hospitals should prepare as though COVID-19 is here to stay as a year-round health threat."

Don't know about you, but I'm taking this seriously.


----------



## Woodduck

KenOC said:


> *It's not irrational* to question whether the better course might not be to avoid the tremendous economic dislocations that may result in long-term drops in the standard of living and simply let the diseases burn through our populations and take (mostly) our older members a few years early.


Yes, it is irrational. From one of our "older members" to another, do you have any idea how many of us there are to "burn through"?

To hell with economic dislocations. It's past time for a few economic RE-locations, and if there's anything good to come out of this it may be to show just how grotesque the inequalities in our society have become.


----------



## KenOC

Woodduck said:


> Yes, it is irrational. From one of our "older members" to another, do you have any idea how many of us there are to "burn through"?
> 
> To hell with economic dislocations. It's past time for a few economic RE-locations, and if there's anything good to come out of this it may be to show just how grotesque the inequalities in our society have become.


Well, perhaps we "older members" may find it irrational, while younger members have other thoughts!


----------



## DaveM

Fwiw, I have real concerns about the U.S. possible plan to throw 2 trillion dollars at the economy which includes sending $1000 checks to people. Bankrupting the nation isn’t going to solve anything. Spend what is necessary to fight this disease.


----------



## Woodduck

KenOC said:


> Well, perhaps we "older members" may find it irrational, while younger members have other thoughts!


Thoughts like "Let's push Mom and Dad off the pier"?


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> As world populations continue to burgeon, I have to believe that pandemics such as this one will come more frequently. It's not irrational to question whether the better course might not be to avoid the tremendous economic dislocations that may result in long-term drops in the standard of living and simply let the diseases burn through our populations and take (mostly) our older members a few years early.
> 
> I don't anticipate much agreement with this approach of course!


Or maybe the world needs to be more ready for the next pandemic. We don't need to be totally taken by surprise every time. I think that the experts are getting more information and more experience when it comes to which families of viruses may go rogue. We can also be more ready with stocks of masks etc. For one thing, how about stocks of rewashable gowns and caps the way it was in the 'olden days' of the '70s and stockpiles of ventilators.


----------



## Woodduck

DaveM said:


> Fwiw, I have real concerns about the U.S. possible plan to throw 2 trillion dollars at the economy which includes sending $1000 checks to people. Bankrupting the nation isn't going to solve anything. Spend what is necessary to fight this disease.


One-time checks to people is a stupid idea. Otherwise, helping people survive for a while isn't going to bankrupt the nation. A number of people may have to live more modestly so that a number of others can merely live. We just have to be willing to take the money from those who are hoarding it. The 1% will be unhappy. So sad.


----------



## KenOC

Woodduck said:


> Thoughts like "Let's push Mom and Dad off the pier"?


Too late anyway. Thee and I have already spent our kids' money through their productive lives, leaving them only debt. But hey, what did they ever do for us?!


----------



## DaveM

Woodduck said:


> Thoughts like "Let's push Mom and Dad off the pier"?


If my kids aren't careful, all they'll get from me is my classical music collection and they hate classical.


----------



## adriesba

KenOC said:


> Well, perhaps we "older members" may find it irrational, while younger members have other thoughts!


Younger member here. I think you are joking, but anyway... Since this is a classical music forum, let's consider this:

I've been to many classical concerts, and I've always noticed that the audience is made up of many older people. So I'm thinking, if all these older people get coronavirus and die, will classical music live?! So, no, I'd rather not let all the older people get sick and die! :lol:

In all seriousness though, we should be willing to sacrifice for the wellbeing of older people. I don't want anything bad to happen to my grandparents for one thing. We should have sympathy as well for those we don't know.


----------



## erki

Open Book said:


> My point is that infection could come from many places in the world. I get it that it shouldn't have come from China since they were warned. The next time it could come from somewhere else, *what are world leaders going to do to prevent that in the future?* That's my point, prevention not blame.


The growing of human population must stop and reduced drastically, economic system based on endless growth must be changed, accumulation of wealth to small group of population must stop, wasting natural resources must stop, the meaning of "private" has to be redefined.... to name few


----------



## annaw

adriesba said:


> Younger member here. I think you are joking, but anyway... Since this is a classical music forum, let's consider this:
> 
> I've been to many classical concerts, and I've always noticed that the audience is made up of many older people. So I'm thinking, if all these older people get coronavirus and die, will classical music live?! So, no, I'd rather not let all the older people get sick and die! :lol:
> 
> In all seriousness though, we should be willing to sacrifice for the wellbeing of older people. I don't want anything bad to happen to my grandparents for one thing. We should have sympathy as well for those we don't know.


Another young member here. I totally agree with you!


----------



## Jacck

Varick said:


> The only idiocy I see of this is how you took a completely coherent argument (right or wrong) and made it completely incoherent that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Dangerous is practically shutting down the entire global economy based on an unkown so HUGE that without a baseline number (that NO ONE still has), no one can tell anything about this virus.
> 
> Tens if not Hundreds of MILLIONS of people's lives have been negatively affected at best and devastated at worst for 13,000 deaths worldwide. And you want to lecture ME about "idiocy" and what's "dangerous???" Wow, that's some world you live in. How are the unicorns?
> 
> V


OK, 13000 deaths is not enough. So say your number. What number of deaths would be enough to justify some reduction of GDP according to you? And please no whataboutism and beating around the bush. Just a straight rational answer from you. And do you realize that 13000 dead is just the very beginning?


----------



## Guest




----------



## mikeh375

This is terribly funny (warning...bad language) but should get the message across to the irresponsible idiots who are still thinking about themselves or are in denial.

https://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/honest-government-ad-coronavirus-flatten-the-curve/


----------



## Sad Al

Blah blah blah. Problems, Problems, Problems, and then you die. The only possible solution is booze. Drop music. Buy booze and drink it. Repeat that procedure until you don't feel very well. Then just lay down and forget everything.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Too late anyway. Thee and I have already spent our kids' money through their productive lives, leaving them only debt. But hey, what did they ever do for us?!


Maybe this is the good Lord's way of finally riding us of the scourge of baby boomers! í ½í¸‚


----------



## Guest

erki said:


> The growing of human population must stop and reduced drastically, economic system based on endless growth must be changed, accumulation of wealth to small group of population must stop, wasting natural resources must stop, the meaning of "private" has to be redefined.... to name few


Yes, yes, we've all heard John Lennon's song "Imagine."


----------



## starthrower

DrMike said:


> Maybe this is the good Lord's way of finally riding us of the scourge of baby boomers! ������


Yeah, and the upcoming generations spoiled with 130 dollar sneakers and smartphones before age eight are going to be so much more prudent and frugal with the world's resources.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> Yeah, and the upcoming generations spoiled with 130 dollar sneakers and smartphones before age eight are going to be so much more prudent and frugal with the world's resources.


Well they'll have to be, won't they, once they see the bill that the baby boomers left for them to pay.


----------



## starthrower

DrMike said:


> Well they'll have to be, won't they, once they see the bill that the baby boomers left for them to pay.


Unfortunately that will be the case. Our own government congressional reports tell us that the largest future expense will be the interest on our debt.


----------



## pianozach

Woodduck said:


> Some people have apparently not been following this very closely. From an article on NPR's web site:
> 
> RATE OF INFECTION
> 
> "In the U.S....in recent years about 8.3% of the total population get sick from flu each season, a CDC study found; including people who carry flu virus but show no symptoms, that estimate ranges to up to 20%."
> 
> "A March 19 letter from researchers at the University of Hong Kong and Harvard, published in Nature Medicine, predicted that globally, 'at least one-quarter to one-half of the population will very likely become infected [with COVID-19], absent drastic control measures or a vaccine.'"
> 
> "An influential modeling analysis released March 16 from Imperial College of London predicted a worse-case scenario in which 81% of the U.S. population could get infected over the next few months, if no actions were taken to slow or contain the spread of the virus."
> 
> RATE OF TRANSMISSION
> 
> "Data from China shows that each *coronavirus case seems to infect around 2 to 2.5 additional people*. That's higher than flu. The average patient spreads the *flu virus to about 1.3 *others."
> 
> "New research suggests that the higher number of infections per coronavirus patient may be related to the frequency of presymptomatic transmission - when people who have been infected are not yet showing symptoms but in fact could be contagious."
> 
> "It's also possible that coronavirus can be transmitted by other methods. Researchers are trying to determine, for example, if tiny droplets can stay suspended in the air in contagious doses, or if fecal matter can be a source of infection."
> 
> RATE OF HOSPITALIZATION
> 
> "Data from China shows that *20% of COVID-19 patients*, though, are *serious enough to get sent to the hospital*. That's about *ten times more often than flu*. Even though a great many people are hospitalized for the flu...the rate of hospitalization is far lower: 1-2% percent of cases, according to the CDC."
> 
> LENGTH OF HOSPITALIZATION
> 
> "Once a patient with a serious case of coronavirus is *hospitalized, the average stay is 11 days*, according to a study based on January data from Wuhan - about twice as long as the *5-to-6 day average stay for flu*."
> 
> MORTALITY
> 
> "Initial data shows that *coronavirus is deadlier*. In the U.S., seasonal flu kills 1 in a thousand people (0.1%) who get sick from it ...By contrast, COVID-19 is currently estimated to kill at least 10 people per thousand infected (1%). 'It's about *ten times more lethal than the seasonal flu*,' said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease."
> 
> TREATMENT
> 
> "A drug called Tamiflu aims to stop the flu virus from replicating in the body and can lessen the severity of symptoms...There are no approved treatments for COVID-19 yet, though researchers are racing to see if pills for other ailments could work against coronavirus, and to develop specific therapies that would lessen symptoms and hasten recovery."
> 
> VACCINES
> 
> "For vaccines that could prevent COVID-19, Dr. Fauci said it will take at least a year to a year and a half for a vaccine to be available to the public. "
> 
> SEASONALITY
> 
> "While flu cases are found year-round, the flu does wane when the weather gets warm."
> 
> "Dr. Bruce Aylward, an adviser to WHO, says don't count on a similar pattern for COVID-19, which is thriving in warm, tropical places: 'It's roaring in Singapore. It's not flu season in Singapore. It's roaring in the southern part of China. It's not flu season.'"
> 
> "Researchers will only know if coronavirus follows flu patterns by seeing whether infections decline as the seasons change. There's the possibility that it won't, so in the meantime, Aylward thinks hospitals should prepare as though COVID-19 is here to stay as a year-round health threat."
> 
> Don't know about you, but I'm taking this seriously.


Thank you for the paste from NPR.

THAT is the most coherent, plain assessment of the risks compared with the flu. I've heard several people, including government officials and TV talking heads dismiss COVID-19 as a flu, or maybe a "bad flu" at worst. And many, including the POTUS, have labelled it a "hoax".


----------



## Guest

erki said:


> Do not think everything as black or white always - and discard the idea because you put the ideological label on it.. What I like about these plagues and however terrible it may be from my personal point of view, that these are equal to all - leftists and conservatives, believers and not, poor and rich(sure they can buy themselves out of the trouble to some extent). So if civilisation is to change it will happen regardless its ideology.


Some things are black and white, but I certainly don't treat everything that way. But in my experience, those who like to say such things usually really mean they want ME to compromise and give in to what they want, not reach some compromise in the middle. At any rate, in some things, compromise is not a good thing. Take the example of slavery - what would have been an example of a good compromise between the slaveholders and the abolitionists? A little slavery?

There is black and white, and there are many areas where I don't think compromise is useful - and I know that frequently when I'm told to compromise, I know the other side usually isn't also willing to do likewise.


----------



## pianozach

DaveM said:


> Or maybe *the world needs to be more ready for the next pandemic*. We don't need to be totally taken by surprise every time. I think that the experts are getting more information and more experience when it comes to which families of viruses may go rogue. We can also be more ready with stocks of masks etc. For one thing, how about stocks of rewashable gowns and caps the way it was in the 'olden days' of the '70s and stockpiles of ventilators.


The USA was fairly prepared, but our President, in his quest to erase any legacy left by the previous administration, inadvertently sabotaged our network established to fight a pandemic:

In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Under fire from both sides of the aisle, President Donald Trump dropped the proposal to eliminate Ebola funds a month later. But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government's $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.

Not content with eliminating efforts to prevent further global pandemics, the Trump administration also targeted the federal network the Obama administration had constructed to contain such epidemics if they reached U.S. shores. Here we saw two of the Trump administration's overarching goals being realized-the vigorous, wholesale dismantling of government positions as well as undoing of the work of the Obama administration, which had carefully designed and staffed what it expected to be a permanent, crisis-ready infrastructure designed to monitor and command the response to viral epidemics such as COVID-19 coronavirus.

These so-called "bureaucracies" included subgroups assigned within the National Security Counsel and Department of Homeland Security, both of which were tasked with coordination with the CDC and the National Institutes of Health (with assistance from the State Department as well) to help respond to serous disease threats to the U.S. population.

In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC's entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer's DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced. The global health section of the CDC was so drastically cut in 2018 that much of its staff was laid off and the number of countries it was working in was reduced from 49 to merely 10. Meanwhile, throughout 2018, the U.S. Agency for International Development and its director, Mark Green, came repeatedly under fire from both the White House and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And though Congress has so far managed to block Trump administration plans to cut the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps by 40 percent, the disease-fighting cadres have steadily eroded as retiring officers were not replaced.

The White House was warned from several agencies and knowledgeable folks that if the Trump administration did not replace these people, the price could be terrible both in "human and economic" costs, warnings that were ignored.

This is the situation the Trump administration has created with its malfeasance, incompetence, and deliberate sabotage.

AND THEN, when we started hearing about a potential pandemic in December 2019, the White House responded by calling it a hoax by Democrats to "bring down" the Trump administration.

By the beginning of February Senators were briefed about the growing threat, and instead of sounding the alarm, they sold off millions of dollars of stock.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> The USA was fairly prepared, but our President, in his quest to erase any legacy left by the previous administration, inadvertently sabotaged our network established to fight a pandemic:
> 
> In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Under fire from both sides of the aisle, President Donald Trump dropped the proposal to eliminate Ebola funds a month later. But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government's $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.
> 
> Not content with eliminating efforts to prevent further global pandemics, the Trump administration also targeted the federal network the Obama administration had constructed to contain such epidemics if they reached U.S. shores. Here we saw two of the Trump administration's overarching goals being realized-the vigorous, wholesale dismantling of government positions as well as undoing of the work of the Obama administration, which had carefully designed and staffed what it expected to be a permanent, crisis-ready infrastructure designed to monitor and command the response to viral epidemics such as COVID-19 coronavirus.
> 
> These so-called "bureaucracies" included subgroups assigned within the National Security Counsel and Department of Homeland Security, both of which were tasked with coordination with the CDC and the National Institutes of Health (with assistance from the State Department as well) to help respond to serous disease threats to the U.S. population.
> 
> In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC's entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer's DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced. The global health section of the CDC was so drastically cut in 2018 that much of its staff was laid off and the number of countries it was working in was reduced from 49 to merely 10. Meanwhile, throughout 2018, the U.S. Agency for International Development and its director, Mark Green, came repeatedly under fire from both the White House and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And though Congress has so far managed to block Trump administration plans to cut the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps by 40 percent, the disease-fighting cadres have steadily eroded as retiring officers were not replaced.
> 
> The White House was warned from several agencies and knowledgeable folks that if the Trump administration did not replace these people, the price could be terrible both in "human and economic" costs, warnings that were ignored.
> 
> This is the situation the Trump administration has created with its malfeasance, incompetence, and deliberate sabotage.
> 
> AND THEN, when we started hearing about a potential pandemic in December 2019, the White House responded by calling it a hoax by Democrats to "bring down" the Trump administration.
> 
> By the beginning of February Senators were briefed about the growing threat, and instead of sounding the alarm, they sold off millions of dollars of stock.


Some of this is justified - some I don't think so. We already have the NIH and the CDC. I fail to see how adding additional levels of bureaucracy was really going to be such a game changer in terms of dealing with a pandemic. If history has told us anything, it is that greater bureaucracy does not equal greater efficiency.

How cutting funds to African nations to deal with Ebola has any relevance to domestic responses to a pandemic is beyond me.

Again, I think so much of this is Monday morning quarterbacking from people who right now are simply regurgitating what NPR or other sources are telling us. We have those sources as well. I had no idea there were so many health policy and epidemiology experts on this board.

Perhaps the biggest failure was in getting out tests early - and that wasn't really a major screw up in terms of people doing what they were supposed to do. The path for a new pathogen is for the CDC to get a test up and running and then to ramp up its production. Unfortunately that path broke down when the CDC failed at that job. And once that was evident, the administration authorized the FDA to fast track test kits from private companies - my company (Thermo Fisher) got one out very quickly. This is what South Korea did from the beginning - they relaxed the regulatory process and told the private companies to get working on test kits ASAP and they would be fast-tracked and as a result they far outpaced our testing and flattened their curve. So in that case, it was the loosening of government bureaucracy that made all the difference. So I'm not sure that increased bureaucracy is really what would have saved us. Are you telling me that Italy doesn't have a lot of bureaucracy in place?


----------



## Art Rock

mmsbls said:


> This is a difficult time and the coronavirus is a very difficult problem filled with significant anxiety and vastly less than perfect information. I understand that many wonder who's to blame or wish to assign blame for part of the problem. Fine. But this thread is filled with enough unpleasantness without adding to it by negative comments about other members. Please focus on the virus and issues associated with covid-19 rather than TC members.


This was posted less than 24 hours ago.

Many of us are genuinely worried about the virus, and when there's an update to this thread, we hope to see relevant information. Instead we get another deluge of political posts. PLEASE. STOP.


----------



## Jacck

Dutch embrace 'herd immunity' as dire death warning prompts UK to change course
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...mpts-uk-to-change-course-20200317-p54arv.html
not only BJ, but also the Dutch or likely even Germany. This is a very high risk strategy. If the disease has a mortality of 1% and half of the Dutch population catch the virus, there will be 100K dead in the Netherlands. The healthcare system will collapse. Not to mention that we know nothing about the long-term consequences of the virus or about long-term immunity. So this whole "herd immunity" is a mass scale experiment on human beings being done in high uncertainty. The politicians are simply gambling. Maybe it is going to work, maybe they are going to kill many more people than necessary.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> Dutch embrace 'herd immunity' as dire death warning prompts UK to change course
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...mpts-uk-to-change-course-20200317-p54arv.html
> not only BJ, but also the Dutch or likely even Germany. This is a very high risk strategy. If the disease has a mortality of 1% and half of the Dutch population catch the virus, there will be 100K dead in the Netherlands. The healthcare system will collapse. Not to mention that we know nothing about the long-term consequences of the virus or about long-term immunity. So this whole "herd immunity" is a mass scale experiment on human beings being done in high uncertainty. The politicians are simply gambling. Maybe it is going to work, maybe they are going to kill many more people than necessary.


Do we have evidence of a 50% infection rate?


----------



## mmsbls

Art Rock said:


> This was posted less than 24 hours ago.
> 
> Many of us are genuinely worried about the virus, and when there's an update to this thread, we hope to see relevant information. Instead we get another deluge of political posts. PLEASE. STOP.


Yes, please do stop. I have started to delete every post that is purely political. I may delete posts that are excessively partisan without enough focus on the virus issue.


----------



## schigolch

Jacck said:


> Dutch embrace 'herd immunity' as dire death warning prompts UK to change course
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...mpts-uk-to-change-course-20200317-p54arv.html
> not only BJ, but also the Dutch or likely even Germany. This is a very high risk strategy. If the disease has a mortality of 1% and half of the Dutch population catch the virus, there will be 100K dead in the Netherlands. The healthcare system will collapse. Not to mention that we know nothing about the long-term consequences of the virus or about long-term immunity. So this whole "herd immunity" is a mass scale experiment on human beings being done in high uncertainty. The politicians are simply gambling. Maybe it is going to work, maybe they are going to kill many more people than necessary.


My feeling is that confinement is not going to work on Europe or the US, either. This is because we have started in a later stage of the epidemics than AsiaPac countries did, and also because we are not capable of taking such actions as were done in China, and we are not able to manage logistics the way Chinese did in Wuhan and other provinces.

Let's see.

However, we can understand that this virus is not like the 1918 virus, that was preying more on the young and healthy. More than 90% of the dead are 65 years old or older. In this scenario, it doesn't sound as illogical to isolate as much as possible the older people, and let the young and healthy continue with their normal lives (with some restrictions due to the virus alarm) as much as possible, and keep the economy running.

Maybe with confinement are we going to save more lives of the elderly?. Not sure really, at this stage. What I'm 100% sure, is that the economy and the standard of living of everyone, not only the elderly, are going to take a huge hit. Unfortunately, it's clear now that this is not going to be a V cycle, as some of us were hoping, or even an U cycle. This is aiming to be the recession to end all recessions.


----------



## Kieran

schigolch said:


> My feeling is that confinement is not going to work on Europe or the US, either. This is because we have started in a later stage of the epidemics than AsiaPac countries did, and also because we are not capable of taking such actions as were done in China, and we are not able to manage logistics the way Chinese did in Wuhan and other provinces.
> 
> Let's see.
> 
> However, we can understand that this virus is not like the 1918 virus, that was preying more on the young and healthy. More than 90% of the dead are 65 years old or older. In this scenario, it doesn't sound as illogical to isolate as much as possible the older people, and let the young and healthy continue with their normal lives (with some restrictions due to the virus alarm) as much as possible, and keep the economy running.
> 
> Maybe with confinement are we going to save more lives of the elderly?. Not sure really, at this stage. What I'm 100% sure, is that the economy and the standard of living of everyone, not only the elderly, are going to take a huge hit. Unfortunately, it's clear now that this is not going to be a V cycle, as some of us were hoping, or even an U cycle. This is aiming to be the recession to end all recessions.


This is true, and it represents the central conundrum we face, and I believe that all involved are facing it armed with the best intentions and data they have: in Italy, the total number infected is 40k - out of a population of 60m - and their whole country is basically facing ruin. Estimations say this virus might infect up to 70% of populations - so far only .006% of Italy's population has been infected. Hence, the herd immunity faction, which maybe risky and might not even work, but still we can see where they're coming from: we are going to have to become immune to this virus very soon, or else the west is facing starker choices than we're making now.

If they "flatten the curve" in Italy and bring respite to the health services, then what's the next stage? Restrictions remain until they get rid of the virus from that area, so the rest of the population don't become infected: is this even possible? And if it is, what then? Keep the borders closed until the rest of the world follows suit?

Or else, they flatten the curve and lift some restrictions, while keeping some in place? This would leave people exposed to the virus, but at a rate they can manage, while they wait for a cure, or a vaccine? Is this possible?

This problem isn't one that's easily solved, but an option isn't to come out of this with what we have right now, but multiplied endlessly...


----------



## Art Rock

The way I understand is when people talk about 50-70% of the population getting infected, most of them will not show any symptoms, and will not even notice they are infected. Here in the Netherlands due to shortage of testing facilities, most people even with symptoms are not tested, until they need hospitalization. Hence the actual rate of deaths over infections is probably orders of magnitudes lower than the 3-5% that is currently assumed. The measures taken are not to prevent as many people as possible from getting infected until a vaccine is available, but to spread the infection over a much longer time, thus freeing up space in hospitals for the serious cases. If you cannot spread it, you will get the Italian and Spanish scenario (it has been reported that in Spain serious Corona cases over 75 are not treated in the hospital because the beds and equipment are required for the younger patients).


----------



## starthrower

Only 26,000 have been tested in New York State. 53 percent of the positives are between the ages of 18 and 49 so I'm assuming a large percentage of this group will not develop serious illness.


----------



## senza sordino

I like this statement:


> From the Guardian
> 
> Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said at a press conference that "Life shouldn't feel normal right now, so if your life still feels entirely normal, ask yourself if you are doing the right things"


I have a colleague who is still on holiday in another country posting photos. The whole world is shutting down, I wonder if she'll get back? And we were warned before we left that we cannot use our sick days to self quarantine (because there was a travel advisory before she left on holiday). I wonder if she'll be reprimanded?



> From the CBC
> 
> In the Northwest Territories, the chief public health officer confirmed the territory's first case on Saturday. The person had travelled to British Columbia and Alberta, according to a statement, and then returned home to Yellowknife.
> 
> and
> 
> British Columbia: 424 confirmed cases, including six recovered and 10 deaths.


Even remote NWT has a case of Covid-19.



> From the Guardian
> 
> German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in quarantine after a doctor who gave her a vaccine tests positive for coronavirus.


----------



## Open Book

erki said:


> The growing of human population must stop and reduced drastically, economic system based on endless growth must be changed, accumulation of wealth to small group of population must stop, wasting natural resources must stop, the meaning of "private" has to be redefined.... to name few


Agreed. And this must happen worldwide. It does limited good if it only happens in a few countries.

What a big change all that would be. It's unlikely to happen soon.


----------



## Jacck

schigolch said:


> My feeling is that confinement is not going to work on Europe or the US, either. This is because we have started in a later stage of the epidemics than AsiaPac countries did, and also because we are not capable of taking such actions as were done in China, and we are not able to manage logistics the way Chinese did in Wuhan and other provinces.
> 
> Let's see.
> 
> However, we can understand that this virus is not like the 1918 virus, that was preying more on the young and healthy. More than 90% of the dead are 65 years old or older. In this scenario, it doesn't sound as illogical to isolate as much as possible the older people, and let the young and healthy continue with their normal lives (with some restrictions due to the virus alarm) as much as possible, and keep the economy running.
> 
> Maybe with confinement are we going to save more lives of the elderly?. Not sure really, at this stage. What I'm 100% sure, is that the economy and the standard of living of everyone, not only the elderly, are going to take a huge hit. Unfortunately, it's clear now that this is not going to be a V cycle, as some of us were hoping, or even an U cycle. This is aiming to be the recession to end all recessions.


I say let the economy crash like in the 1930's. I do not care. The people have become too spoilt, selfish, narcissist and lost the ability to make sacrifices. The western societies have become degenerate and decadent. They need to be taught some lessons again. And hardship and suffering are the best teachers. Food stamps, rationings, mass unemployment, the total crash of the financial system. We can look forward to some happy years ahead.


----------



## starthrower

Open Book said:


> Agreed. And this must happen worldwide. It does limited good if it only happens in a few countries.
> 
> What a big change all that would be. It's unlikely to happen soon.


From what I've read, population growth in much of the third world will not even begin to slow up until mid century. This is a result of reduced mortality rates combined with the conditioning to produce large families as a result of centuries of high mortality rates. So the planet is going to continue to get very crowded. The move away from fossil fuel consumption will not happen without massive public pressure. Wall St is heavily invested in the fossil fuel industry so it's up to the people to push in the other direction.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> I say let the economy crash like in the 1930's. I do not care. The people have become too spoilt, selfish, narcissist and lost the ability to make sacrifices. The western societies have become degenerate and decadent. They need to be taught some lessons again. And hardship and suffering are the best teachers. Food stamps, rationings, mass unemployment, the total crash of the financial system. We can look forward to some happy years ahead.


The problem with the internet is that people can throw out that sort of random, off the top of their head stuff with no vetting of it whatsoever.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> I say let the economy crash like in the 1930's. I do not care. The people have become too spoilt, selfish, narcissist and lost the ability to make sacrifices. The western societies have become degenerate and decadent. They need to be taught some lessons again. And hardship and suffering are the best teachers. Food stamps, rationings, mass unemployment, the total crash of the financial system. We can look forward to some happy years ahead.


I understand your sentiments but I don't feel the need to punish people, many of whom are already having a tough time in even our healthy economy.

A crash is a disaster that will cause untold misery and takes years to undo. Bailouts just work from the top down and take a while to have an effect and probably enrich the rich all the more.

Wouldn't it be better if we could prop up the economy throughout all this even if it is crippled, keep it going as normal as possible?

Don't allow layoffs, but make payments to companies so they can continue to pay partial wages. Especially small companies. Reemploy some people in fighting the crisis. And landlords receive partial rents for a while. And much more.

Somehow make it so that we are all sacrificing something more or less equally and that the whole system doesn't crash? Can our economists figure it out or am I naive and way off base with my idea?


----------



## Open Book

starthrower said:


> From what I've read, population growth in much of the third world will not even begin to slow up until mid century. This is a result of reduced mortality rates combined with the conditioning to produce large families as a result of centuries of high mortality rates. So the planet is going to continue to get very crowded. The move away from fossil fuel consumption will not happen without massive public pressure. Wall St is heavily invested in the fossil fuel industry so it's up to the people to push in the other direction.


The Third World needs to be brought up to First World level. It's in everybody's interest. We can't isolate ourselves from their problems much longer. We have refugees at our doorstep demanding entry into our First World countries. We have pandemics that spread to everybody but that the Thirds World may not have the resources to fight.


----------



## Jacck

Iceland tests higher proportion of citizens than any other country yielding valuable insights into the behaviour of Coronavirus
https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020...to-the-behaviour-of-coronavirus/#.XnewPvmYUuU


----------



## senza sordino

> From the Guardian
> 
> We take our phones everywhere, and we're constantly touching them. You might wash your hands after you've been out but then contaminate them straight away with your phone, as you haven't cleaned it.
> 
> Apple advises you to use a 70% isopropyl alcohol wipe or Clorox disinfecting wipes. The alcohol quickly evaporates from the surface of your phone and kills all the microbes. Don't use Dettol wipes, or any other type that needs to be left on the surface for a certain period in order to work, because this will interfere with the phone's functioning.
> 
> You can also just use soap and water. Clearly don't put your phone under running water, even if it's water-resistant. Moisten a cloth or a paper towel with washing-up liquid or hand soap - something that foams, with a detergent in it. Wipe it over the phone, then wipe that off with a cloth or paper towel moistened with water. You might have to do that a couple of times to get rid of the soapy bits. Then dry it - that will do the trick.


I have stopped wearing my watch in public, not that I go out much any more. Yesterday I had to press a button to cross the road, so I used my foot, the sole of my shoe.

For teachers of AP courses (including me), AP have announced an online exam, a shortened exam with long form questions only. And the exam will not include the last section or two of the course, as we hadn't yet quite finished teaching all of the course. These long form questions are tough and difficult to cheat on because process is more important. They say they have security measures and antiplagerism software. I think this is the best solution in this difficult time. It won't prevent all cheaters but it's a good way forward considering the circumstances.



> When in public I used to cough to hide a fart, now I fart to hide a cough.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> Iceland tests higher proportion of citizens than any other country yielding valuable insights into the behaviour of Coronavirus
> https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020...to-the-behaviour-of-coronavirus/#.XnewPvmYUuU


They only have a population of 364,000, and are a small island nation. I don't think they are very representative of anything.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> I say let the economy crash like in the 1930's. I do not care. The people have become too spoilt, selfish, narcissist and lost the ability to make sacrifices. The western societies have become degenerate and decadent. They need to be taught some lessons again. And hardship and suffering are the best teachers. Food stamps, rationings, mass unemployment, the total crash of the financial system. We can look forward to some happy years ahead.


That seems like a sane position to take. You don't like how people are behaving so the entire world should be thrown into economic catastrophe.


----------



## KenOC

It’s looking like the fatality rate of this virus is higher than many are saying. China is definitely over the hump with few new daily cases and well over 90% of its total cases now resolved. Looking at total deaths divided by total closed cases (deaths plus recoveries), the case fatality rate is 4.5%. That’s scary.


----------



## Guest

Woodduck said:


> Your warnings are not needed.
> 
> Really? Interesting to see what makes you glad. I'd have thought that nothing about this situation, or this conversation, should make anyone glad. Tell us more about your gladness.
> 
> The Chinese and the WHO are not our president or our congress. We don't vote them in or out. They don't decide how we structure our government or meet our public health needs. We have great numbers of scientists and a goodly number of political leaders who've been doing an admirable job of studying the disease, keeping us informed, and trying to meet those public needs, with a pathetic lack of support from Washington.
> 
> If Trump wants to boast about "his" economy, he also needs to take responsibility for "his" epidemic. But no: like the Omnipotence, he wants to own only the good stuff, and blame the bad stuff on the Devil.
> 
> The failure of this administration to deal responsibly with a disease they had every reason to expect to be a major threat is negligent homicide. Attempts to excuse them disgust me.


So Fauci, Governor Gavin Newsom of California, and Governor Cuomo of New York have all said Trump had given them what they've asked for. But I'm sure your professional, all knowledgeable opinion of the response is the superior one. Those three are clearly all Trump sycophants.

No. We didn't elect the WHO. But tell me - what has been more detrimental to the spread of this virus: everything Trump had said about it or that one tweet from the WHO about no evidence of human to human spread that was, at best premature, and at worst actively aiding the Chinese government in spreading disinformation?


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> It's looking like the fatality rate of this virus is higher than many are saying. China is definitely over the hump with few new daily cases and well over 90% of its total cases now resolved. Looking at total deaths divided by total closed cases (deaths plus recoveries), the case fatality rate is 4.5%. That's scary.


I think we should be skeptical of China's numbers.

Not that it's not scary.


----------



## Jacck

The Worst Economic Collapse In History Is Starting Now: Be Prepared


----------



## mmsbls

starthrower said:


> Well, the whole goddamned thing is tied to politics and government policy and decisions. So what should we talk about?


The coronavirus
Statistics about Covid-19 infections, deaths, mortality rates
Information on how to interpret these statistics 
Testing kits, testing protocols, testing statistics
Details of personal protective equipment and how it affects health care workers
Potential vaccines and drugs to reduce symptoms or infections
Policies to prevent viral spread
Policies to reduce the financial effect 
Information from or about health care workers 
Personal feelings about the virus, policies related to the virus 
Reliability of information about the virus
What actions should be taken to prevent future such outbreaks
Studies related to the Virus
.
.
.

And lots, and lots, and lots of other things related to the virus

DO NOT POST PURELY POLITICAL CONTENT.
DO NOT POST PROVOCATIVE POLITICAL RELATED CONTENT

Many TC members feel this thread is a valuable source of information or a useful way to engage concerning the virus. Let's keep it focused on the virus and leave unnecessary politics out of it.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> It's looking like the fatality rate of this virus is higher than many are saying. China is definitely over the hump with few new daily cases and well over 90% of its total cases now resolved. Looking at total deaths divided by total closed cases (deaths plus recoveries), the case fatality rate is 4.5%. That's scary.


But that would assume that China tested all the people with minimal symptoms. Not sure how that would be possible.


----------



## Art Rock

I did not check the numbers but this (just posted by someone on Facebook) scared the hell out of me. The Netherlands is heading for the Italian scenario, unless the coming days show a drastic improvement.

(I think it's clear even though it's in Dutch - the columns are date, confirmed cases, and deaths). Left the Netherlands, Right Italy, with an offset in the dates.

EDIT: What's even worse is that these are absolute numbers. Italy has 60 million people, the Netherlands 17 million.

2nd EDIT: To be fair, most of the Italian deaths are in the Lombardy region, which has 11 million people.


----------



## science

For a variety of reasons, South Korea's numbers are probably more reliable than China's. Their death rate per confirmed case is right around 1%.

Italy's is close to 10%.

Unless some really effective treatment options become available soon, I'd expect the US to be more like Italy than South Korea. Seems like the US _might_ have gotten a jump on Italy in terms of social distancing (this is debatable), and Italy is disproportionately older, but most other variables that I know of favor Italy: the US has been way behind on testing (this seems to still be true), the US has a high number of people with underlying chronic illnesses like diabetes, and the US has a high number of people who either can't afford treatment or believe they can't afford treatment.

One factor that could keep the apparent numbers down in the US would be if a lot of the deaths are not attributed to coronavirus. Homeless guys dying on the street, for example, will probably not be counted. The US will probably have a fair amount of that, but a country like Italy will have almost none of it.

The one really big hope for the US is that some very effective treatments become available soon and are made available to the public at an affordable price. I'm really hoping for this. Truthfully, I don't know if there's any other hope.


----------



## Jacck

Art Rock said:


> View attachment 132208
> 
> 
> I did not check the numbers but this (just posted by someone on Facebook) scared the hell out of me. The Netherlands is heading for the Italian scenario, unless the coming days show a drastic improvement.
> 
> (I think it's clear even though it's in Dutch - the columns are date, confirmed cases, and deaths). Left the Netherlands, Right Italy, with an offset in the dates.
> 
> EDIT: What's even worse is that these are absolute numbers. Italy has 60 million people, the Netherlands 17 million.


It is pretty much my feeling that Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, France, UK and USA are lost. Most of those countries are 1-3 weeks behind Italy on the curve, but the trajectory is inevitable. No one really knows what to do with it at this point. A complete shut down like in China? The "herd immunity" theory will become politically untenable when the daily dead will be in the thousands. So you can likely expect strict lockdowns.


----------



## science

Art Rock said:


> I did not check the numbers but this (just posted by someone on Facebook) scared the hell out of me. The Netherlands is heading for the Italian scenario, unless the coming days show a drastic improvement.
> 
> (I think it's clear even though it's in Dutch - the columns are date, confirmed cases, and deaths). Left the Netherlands, Right Italy, with an offset in the dates.
> 
> EDIT: What's even worse is that these are absolute numbers. Italy has 60 million people, the Netherlands 17 million.


Jesus, man, stay safe if you can!


----------



## science

DaveM said:


> But that would assume that China tested all the people with minimal symptoms. Not sure how that would be possible.


It is also assuming that China is being completely transparent. I would be more surprised if the Chinese numbers are accurate than if they are not.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> For a variety of reasons, South Korea's numbers are probably more reliable than China's. Their death rate per confirmed case is right around 1%.


S. Korea is looking pretty good, but 2/3 of its total cases are listed as active (unresolved) so it may be a bit early to draw firm conclusions. In any event, it's case fatality rate, as normally calculated, is 3.5%.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> S. Korea is looking pretty good, but 2/3 of its total cases are listed as active (unresolved) so it may be a bit early to draw firm conclusions.


Of the cases that have been resolved, as of March 21st, 96% were recoveries.


----------



## senza sordino

I took the data from his graph from the last ten days. I assumed the same rate of growth as the last ten days. I calculated that we reach one million world wide infections by April 4th.

Yes, I know, so don't scream at me: I assumed this graph is accurate and I assumed the same rate of growth as the last week and a half. Perhaps not the best thing to do, but's it's all I have right now. I will try to calculate another number based on more data later. This was a fairly quick calculation. One problem is that the rate of infection has changed over the duration. And will change again as more testing becomes available.


----------



## DeepR

Jacck said:


> It is pretty much my feeling that Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, France, UK and USA are lost. Most of those countries are 1-3 weeks behind Italy on the curve, but the trajectory is inevitable. No one really knows what to do with it at this point. A complete shut down like in China? The "herd immunity" theory will become politically untenable when the daily dead will be in the thousands. So you can likely expect strict lockdowns.


"Herd immunity" was never a goal by itself. The goal is to control the spread of the virus as much as possible, to reduce peak numbers for reasons of healthcare capacity. This was clarified by the Dutch government very quickly.
In the long term herd immunity is expected to provide relative safety once 50-60% of the population has been infected. Hopefully by slowing down the spread of the virus more people will eventually have access to medicine or even a vaccine.
Anyway currently the Dutch government is asking citizens to take responsibility instead of forcing a lockdown. We will see how well that holds up. I'm afraid it's going to be a minority that ruins it for the majority, as usual...


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> Of the cases that have been resolved, as of March 21st, 96% were recoveries.


Yes, but this means a death rate of 4%. Recoveries plus deaths, ignoring cases still active, always add to 100%. See my added note above -- S. Korea's _apparent _CFR is 3.5% according to Worldometer and my calcs as well.


----------



## KenOC

Getting messy in the US. In the last 24-hour reporting period, confimed cases and deaths both rose by a third. In a day!

The US now stands third in the world in confirmed cases.


----------



## Guest

At any rate, at least two people on here have predicted the U.S. will likely look like Italy in a few weeks, but Fauci disagrees with you. He thinks the early travel restrictions from China, which Italy didn't have, along with the later more limited restrictions from Europe will prevent us from seeing the kind of outbreak Italy is seeing.

I'll take his word as more definitive than any opinions on here.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> Yes, but this means a death rate of 4%. Recoveries plus deaths, ignoring cases still active, always add to 100%. See my added note above -- S. Korea's _apparent _CFR is 3.5% according to Worldometer and my calcs as well.


No doubt we should ignore the fact that the recovery rate has been improving constantly for several weeks. It's very important not to give the healthcare system here too much credit so that other systems with higher death rates don't have to take so much blame.

But I'm a Maoist so what would I know. I need to remember this before I try to respect my ideas.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> No doubt we should ignore the fact that the recovery rate has been improving constantly for several weeks. It's very important not to give the healthcare system here too much credit so that other systems with higher death rates don't have to take so much blame.
> 
> But I'm a Maoist so what would I know. I need to remember this before I try to respect my ideas.


You seem rather defensive. I already pointed out that, with 2/3 of cases still active, it's too early to reliably calculate S. Korea's CFR. To emphasize this, in my subsequent post I referred to the _apparent _CFR.

I have a feeling, though, that Korea's disease control efforts (which appear to have been quite fine) will have had more effect in limiting the number of cases than in reducing the CFR. Time will tell, but either is of course beneficial.


----------



## Rangstrom

I suspect that the "80% will get the "mild" covid-19 strain has led to a lot of false optimism. About 50% of those individuals will require hospitalization and will have a long recovery. Most will suffer damage to their lungs. Having suffered from chronic bronchitis all my life (I never smoked/I had 2 blue baby episodes before my first birthday) I know what a challenge living with impaired lungs can be. This is not the flu. At the current USA death rate(which is going to continue to climb), covid-19 will shatter the death toll for even the Spanish Flu outbreak.

If you are in the 20% you better hope that they still have ventilators and staff to treat you. Throw in pre-existing conditions (like my copd) and this is scary ****. Those younger than 20 and in good health are probably ok, but everyone else should be careful, because few are without any heath hazards: smoke, vape, diabetes, overweight, high blood pressure, et al.


----------



## millionrainbows

How serious is the new coronavirus?A serious as cancer!


----------



## DaveM

I’ve been thinking about why Italy is in such dire straits. One thing that I suspect is that one is more likely to get a serious case of covid19 the closer one is to an infected individual when one gets infected presumably from as much as a single cough. This might explain why some healthcare workers are getting very ill with even some mortality.

Add to the above the fact that many Italians live at close quarters. It’s not unusual for children to live with their parents until they get married and it’s not unusual for married couples to live with their parents. I’ve always thought of Italians as a loving, welcoming family-oriented people, but, in this case, that may have added insult to the injury of the delayed response of the government.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> I've been thinking about why Italy is in such dire straits. One thing that I suspect is that one is more likely to get a serious case of covid19 the closer one is to an infected individual when one gets infected presumably from as much as a single cough. This might explain why some healthcare workers are getting very ill with even some mortality.
> 
> Add to the above the fact that many Italians live at close quarters. It's not unusual for children to live with their parents until they get married and it's not unusual for married couples to live with their parents. I've always thought of Italians as a loving, welcoming family-oriented people, but, in this case, that may have added insult to the injury of the delayed response of the government.


I read somewhere that once you get a critical mass of cases in hospitals, you then also start to see those hospitals being a new source of infection. It apparently happened with both SARS and with MERS. Nosocomial infections are a significant problem even in the best of circumstances.


----------



## Woodduck

DaveM said:


> I've been thinking about why Italy is in such dire straits. One thing that I suspect is that one is more likely to get a serious case of covid19 the closer one is to an infected individual when one gets infected presumably from as much as a single cough. This might explain why some healthcare workers are getting very ill with even some mortality.
> 
> Add to the above the fact that many Italians live at close quarters. It's not unusual for children to live with their parents until they get married and it's not unusual for married couples to live with their parents. I've always thought of Italians as a loving, welcoming family-oriented people, but, in this case, that may have added insult to the injury of the delayed response of the government.


Italian culture is profoundly social. Self-isolation must be the hardest thing in the world for them.


----------



## aleazk

Woodduck said:


> Italian culture is profoundly social. Self-isolation must be the hardest thing in the world for them.


This is true, and applies to any latin culture, both in Europe (Italy, Spain, France), and Latinamerica.


----------



## mbhaub

Late to this thread. Coronavirus taking its toll on everything...

I'm basically homebound now, catching up on tons of cds, movies, books. A good thing.
Doing some long overdue house cleaning. Windows. Car maintenance.
There's no NBA or Cactus League baseball. And I haven't missed it a bit. 
My beloved Houston Rodeo was cancelled. There's always next year.
Too many concerts I was looking forward to cancelled: A Mahler 2 in Tucson, Schmidt's Das Buch in Dallas. There are cds.
Many concerts I was going to either play or conduct in cancelled...but there will be more someday.
Still can't buy toilet paper - but then I have, and use, a bidet - wonderful invention.

So while this latest virus has caused a lot of heartbreak, turmoil, anger and terror, I've learned that life goes on, that things I used to think were important really aren't. And that the people who contribute the most to our society, the ones who make the world work are so unappreciated and underpaid. The pro athletes, movie stars, musicians (and that includes classical) really aren't that important - they really contribute little to society, yet they are paid enormous salaries. If anything comes from this current crisis I hope that society reprioritizes what matters.


----------



## KenOC

We have been hit by a sudden pandemic, the worst in at least a century. Nations have responded as the magnitude of this thing has gradually become clear. Some responses have been quicker, stronger, or better-aimed than others. That’s hardly surprising.

I think a lot of people are anxious and even angry, looking for people to blame. And the targets of their wrath are, invariably, leaders with ideological beliefs different from theirs. This is possibly pushing coincidence a bit too far! :lol:

Added: Rand Paul has gone into quarantine, the first senator to test positive. I hope he does OK, esp. concerned because of a lung injury from the Great Leafpile Incident a while back.


----------



## senza sordino

I saw many people out today wearing face masks. And several of them also wearing disposable gloves. Okay. But I was thinking, how safe is it to reuse masks and gloves? Do these people have multiple masks and disposable gloves?


----------



## Woodduck

Trump has been compelled by obvious circumstances to take measures he should have taken way back when he was making up fictions about the virus being under control and going away soon. Should we praise him for that? Do people deserve praise for doing what anyone should normally be expected to do?

He has said that he's prepared to invoke the Defense Production Act, which is sensible. But he's been reluctant use it, despite the urging of governors looking for federal help. It still appears unclear just what, if anything, is happening specifically as a result, though some industries are voluntarily converting their facilities. He's also commissioned two Navy hospital ships. One of them is expected to be ready in a week, the other in a few weeks; a few weeks , under the circumstances, is a very long time. The FDA is relaxing restrictions on ventilator specifications because the need is so dire, but I doubt that Trump had to do anything more about that than give a nod of approval.

It isn't that nothing is being done. It's that it's too little, too late to save innumerable lives. We'll never know how many have been lost, and will be lost, in the delay. And why too little too late? We shouldn't forget this glimpse into the "soul" of the man:






"I like the numbers where they are. It isn't our fault."

Right. Do we even have to wonder whether the thought "what's important is to do what's best for the people on that ship" ever crossed his mind? In an interview with Howard Stern some years back, Trump related a story of being at a social gathering at Mar-a-Lago when a man had a heart attack, fell over, cut his head on the floor and bled on the white marble. Trump said, amused with himself, that he didn't run to help; he just watched, and thought about the blood staining his lovely, expensive marble floor.

The point? Trump may be yielding to necessity now and doing things that need to be done, but let's not be fooled by the fact that he appears to be rising above the bar he's so drastically lowered. In a state of emergency, with even Trump voters' loved ones dying and Republican congresspeople in quarantine, he can't afford to let his supporters see too much of the real Donald Trump. The dishonest happy talk he fed us for weeks won't work now, so he needs to make us forget it by being "presidential." Maybe it'll even help his "numbers."


----------



## KenOC

senza sordino said:


> I saw many people out today wearing face masks. And several of them also wearing disposable gloves. Okay. But I was thinking, how safe is it to reuse masks and gloves? Do these people have multiple masks and disposable gloves?


Saw a story about New York where medical personnel were re-using disposable masks. They were repairing them with Scotch tape as needed. No mention of how this affected their effectiveness. 

Added: Just now on TV news, a story about NY doctors not going to the bathroom during their shifts to prevent wear and tear to their masks -- not sure why that would be the case.​


----------



## Guest

mikeh375 said:


> This is terribly funny (warning...bad language) but should get the message across to the irresponsible idiots who are still thinking about themselves or are in denial.
> 
> https://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/honest-government-ad-coronavirus-flatten-the-curve/


You HAVE to be able to laugh; it's a survival mechanism!!


----------



## Guest

Trump has been compelled by obvious circumstances to take measures he should have taken way back when he was making up fictions about the virus being under control and going away soon. Should we praise him for that? Do people deserve praise for doing what anyone should normally be expected to do?

He has said that he's prepared to invoke the Defense Production Act, which is sensible. But he's been reluctant use it, despite the urging of governors looking for federal help. It still appears unclear just what, if anything, is happening specifically as a result, though some industries are voluntarily converting their facilities. He's also commissioned two Navy hospital ships. One of them is expected to be ready in a week, the other in a few weeks; a few weeks , under the circumstances, is a very long time. The FDA is relaxing restrictions on ventilator specifications because the need is so dire, but I doubt that Trump had to do anything more about that than give a nod of approval.

It isn't that nothing is being done. It's that it's too little, too late to save innumerable lives. We'll never know how many have been lost, and will be lost, in the delay. And why too little too late? We shouldn't forget this glimpse into the "soul" of the man:






"I like the numbers where they are. It isn't our fault."

Right. Do we even have to wonder whether the thought "what's important is to do what's best for the people on that ship" ever crossed his mind? In an interview with Howard Stern some years back, Trump related a story of being at a social gathering at Mar-a-Lago when a man had a heart attack, fell over, cut his head on the floor and bled on the white marble. Trump said, amused with himself, that he didn't run to help; he just watched, and thought about the blood staining his lovely, expensive marble floor.

The point? Trump may be yielding to necessity now and doing things that need to be done, but let's not be fooled by the fact that he appears to be rising above the bar he's so drastically lowered. In a state of emergency, with even Trump voters' loved ones dying and Republican congresspeople in quarantine, he can't afford to let his supporters see too much of the real Donald Trump. The dishonest happy talk he fed us for weeks won't work now, so he needs to make us forget it by being "presidential." Maybe it'll even help his "numbers."[/QUOTE]
You are right. We won't know until afterwards how effective all his actions were. Which is why so many are already passing judgment seems won't to me. And the actual expert, Dr. Fauci, in his expert opinion believes that at least one of those early actions, shutting down travel from China, was a very good proactive measure.

I'm not saying he should be praised for his work. No politician should be praised, or have buildings or anything named for them, while they are still alive. But then I haven't asked you to praise him. Only to acknowledge that some of his actions have actually been the right ones. Apparently that is too much to ask. No matter. Woodduck acknowledging Trump did the right thing is meaningless. But we have two liberal Democratic governors who are no friends to Trump acknowledging it, along with what could currently be called the nation's top scientist. And ultimately that matters more than Monday morning quarterbacks sniping on a classical music forum.


----------



## KenOC

Christabel said:


> You HAVE to be able to laugh; it's a survival mechanism!!


That's a hilarious video!


----------



## Rogerx

Art Rock said:


> This was posted less than 24 hours ago.
> 
> Many of us are genuinely worried about the virus, and when there's an update to this thread, we hope to see relevant information. Instead we get another deluge of political posts. PLEASE. STOP.


Anyway....................... several pages further and still the same


----------



## Guest

Rogerx said:


> Anyway....................... several pages further and still the same


Yep. I'd suggest checking the news or the CDC website if coronavirus news is what you are seeking.


----------



## AeolianStrains

Art Rock said:


> This was posted less than 24 hours ago.
> 
> Many of us are genuinely worried about the virus, and when there's an update to this thread, we hope to see relevant information. Instead we get another deluge of political posts. PLEASE. STOP.


Until moderation actually starts to suspend the habitual rule-breakers, this forum is worse than useless for getting real information about COVID-19.


----------



## Rogerx

AeolianStrains said:


> Until moderation actually starts to suspend the habitual rule-breakers, this forum is worse than useless for getting real information about COVID-19.


Just one word.....Amen .


----------



## mmsbls

The thread is temporarily closed until we can make some changes that will hopefully allow a more congenial and less political discussion. I hope it won't take too long.


----------



## mmsbls

The thread is now open. We request again that members should focus on the virus and issues relevant to the virus rather than pure politics or each other.


----------



## pianozach

The four day moratorium effectively makes this thread hopelessly outdated.

Developments have arisen not just daily, but several times a day.


----------



## Metalkitsune

This person was in good health and had no preexisting conditions that would make corona bad.

And he was young, 37

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...uffering-coronavirus-warns-dont-challenge-it/


----------



## Luchesi

pianozach said:


> The four day moratorium effectively makes this thread hopelessly outdated.
> 
> Developments have arisen not just daily, but several times a day.


Maybe the moderators can't block the posters who are engaging in forbidden debates. Maybe all they can do is close a thread.


----------



## Rogerx

^^^^^
Then you got the "freedom of speech" bullies on your neck.


----------



## Metalkitsune

Rogerx said:


> ^^^^^
> Then you got the "freedom of speech" bullies on your neck.


This comic applies in their case.

Freedom of speech only applies to government agencies.

https://xkcd.com/1357/


----------



## adriesba

What do y'all think of this?

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/


----------



## Metalkitsune

A anime con got postponed in my state and it's the first time i ever saw Las Vegas go all dark


----------



## Rogerx

adriesba said:


> What do y'all think of this?
> 
> https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/


The world will never be the same for a very long time.


----------



## Metalkitsune

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...9HXoyMq3Wm3xGqNIUqCy8Gz8wPsfbjmYsHncjYWy5Fcvo


----------



## adriesba

Rogerx said:


> The world will never be the same for a very long time.


To me, it seemed like he was being a Debbie Downer when the world does not need them, whether he's right or not. IDK.


----------



## tdc

12 Experts Questioning the Corona Virus Panic
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/


----------



## adriesba

Metalkitsune said:


> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...9HXoyMq3Wm3xGqNIUqCy8Gz8wPsfbjmYsHncjYWy5Fcvo


Are other places going down in cases or maybe the US is just skyrocketing ahead of everyone?


----------



## KenOC

The *US knocks China out of the lead* in cases. Rejoice! (I guess)

Sadly, most curves continue to curl upward.


----------



## Rogerx

adriesba said:


> Are other places going down in cases or maybe the US is just skyrocketing ahead of everyone?


The last news last night: USA having the most corona virus patients.


----------



## adriesba

tdc said:


> 12 Experts Questioning the Corona Virus Panic
> https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/


This is interesting. I think what the one person said about selection bias in the data really needs to be considered. I'm curious what other people think of this.


----------



## senza sordino

tdc said:


> 12 Experts Questioning the Corona Virus Panic
> https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/


Their data is already hopelessly out of date.

My comparison using the data on worldometers



> 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
> This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.


Thursday March 26th (Today for me as I type) 2791 people died from Covid-19.

I am worried about this virus for the following reasons:

Evidence suggests that:
It is more contagious than the regular seasonal flu. 
You can spread the disease without showing symptoms.
Once you contract Covid-19 you are 20 times more likely to need hospitalization.
The mortality rate is higher than the regular seasonal flu.

This is no regular flu.


----------



## adriesba

Rogerx said:


> The last news last night: USA having the most corona virus patients.


I just wasn't sure if that means other places are decreasing.


----------



## adriesba

senza sordino said:


> Their data is already hopelessly out of date.
> 
> My comparison using the data on worldometers
> 
> Thursday March 26th (Today for me as I type) 2791 people died from Covid-19.
> 
> I am worried about this virus for the following reasons:
> 
> Evidence suggests that:
> It is more contagious than the regular seasonal flu.
> You can spread the disease without showing symptoms.
> Once you contract Covid-19 you are 20 times more likely to need hospitalization.
> The mortality rate is higher than the regular seasonal flu.
> 
> This is no regular flu.


I was just curious about the one person's point that we might be basing things off biased data. If many people get the virus without having severe symptoms, they may not get tested to know that they have it. Perhaps if we added these people to the numbers, the mortality rate would be less. IDK.


----------



## Rogerx

adriesba said:


> I just wasn't sure if that means other places are decreasing.


Correct, still every infection or a patient dying is on to many.


----------



## DaveM

Some otherwise very healthy young healthcare workers who contracted Covid-19 are dying. I continue to believe that the reason is that they are getting a direct concentrated dose of the virus that is inhaled deep into the lungs where it produces pneumonia sooner and more severe than people who were farther away from an infected person when they contracted the virus or they picked it up off a surface.


----------



## adriesba

DaveM said:


> Some otherwise very healthy young healthcare workers who contracted Covid-19 are dying. I continue to believe that the reason is that they are getting a direct concentrated dose of the virus that is inhaled deep into the lungs where it produces pneumonia sooner and more severe than people who were farther away from an infected person when they contracted the virus or they picked it up off a surface.


From working around COVID-19 patients?


----------



## AeolianStrains

adriesba said:


> I just wasn't sure if that means other places are decreasing.


It's really about the numbers. USA is huge, and China is deliberately under-reporting numbers:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-lockdown-has-china-really-beaten-coronavirus


----------



## erki

My scientist friend shared this few days ago. It makes sense.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It is funny(indeed) how some old "truths" that have been repeated over and over again do not apply any longer. I said earlier how "Time is money" has lost its wisdom, "You can't hurt business"(imperative) is going to go to waste-basket as well.


----------



## tortkis

AeolianStrains said:


> It's really about the numbers. USA is huge, and China is deliberately under-reporting numbers:
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-lockdown-has-china-really-beaten-coronavirus


According to South China Morning Post (a Hong Kong English-language newspaper), China is not including asymptomatic cases in the number of the confirmed cases.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...virus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified
"More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive for Covid-19 by the end of February but had no immediate symptoms, a condition typically known as asymptomatic, according to the data. They were placed in quarantine and monitored but were not included in the official tally of confirmed cases, which stood at about 80,000 at the time."

"The World Health Organisation classifies all people who test positive as confirmed cases regardless of whether they experience any symptoms. South Korea also does this. But the Chinese government changed its classification guidelines on February 7, counting only those patients with symptoms as confirmed cases."


----------



## tdc

senza sordino said:


> Their data is already hopelessly out of date.
> 
> My comparison using the data on worldometers
> 
> Thursday March 26th (Today for me as I type) 2791 people died from Covid-19.
> 
> I am worried about this virus for the following reasons:
> 
> Evidence suggests that:
> It is more contagious than the regular seasonal flu.
> You can spread the disease without showing symptoms.
> Once you contract Covid-19 you are 20 times more likely to need hospitalization.
> The mortality rate is higher than the regular seasonal flu.
> 
> This is no regular flu.


Your post doesn't address the various concerns regarding the collection of data. Why disregard the opinions of 12 experts so quickly?

There are a lot of issues in terms of the data itself that are questionable. For one thing it seems like a lot of very old people who are suffering from a variety of health problems are being reported as coronavirus deaths, when it looks like in a lot of cases other factors are responsible. Lack of wide scale testing (and evidence of intentional turning away of people who wish to be tested) means that death rates people are giving now are not very informative. A lot of people who get this virus get mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. In flu season it is normal for hospitals to be full, tens of thousands die every year in America from the flu.

Some workers in hospitals are reporting nothing out of the ordinary is really going on.

A question - does anyone here know anybody, or know someone who knows someone who died of coronavirus? I don't.

The UK and Russia have reportedly downgraded this virus to not a serious threat. I wonder why this isn't being reported on.


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> The UK and Russia have reportedly downgraded this virus to not a serious threat. I wonder why this isn't being reported on.


maybe because the outbreak is so fierce, overwhelming in NYC that there is no time for this nonsense on the news?

You literally don't even know what this means or how or why.

unbelievable

conspiracy is it?


----------



## erki

AeolianStrains said:


> It's really about the numbers. USA is huge, and China is deliberately under-reporting numbers


It is like poker game - who will play their hand the best will win it all. In our world economy everything is based on competition. So the systems that can take advantage now are the next big players. If China could start their economy(while US is on its knees and just beginning to fall face down) they will be the ones who set the rules(and sanctions, tariffs etc) in the future. They may not want to loose the opportunity - even with some sacrifices.


----------



## schigolch

DaveM said:


> Some otherwise very healthy young healthcare workers who contracted Covid-19 are dying. I continue to believe that the reason is that they are getting a direct concentrated dose of the virus that is inhaled deep into the lungs where it produces pneumonia sooner and more severe than people who were farther away from an infected person when they contracted the virus or they picked it up off a surface.


I agree this is by far the most likely explanation.

Also, there are people that will be practically immune to COVID, and also others that, for any reason, are particularly sensitive, so they will have serious problems even if they are young and healthy, but they are clearly a minority.

About the opinions touted by "the 12 experts", this one:

Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold.
[…]
[T]he best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and "run" society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.
- "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure", _Washington Post_ 21st March 2020

is probably what we would need to do anyway, if the lockdowns ae not working well. Now, we have seen some good results in China and other Asian countries, but so far the results in Italy or Spain are not so encouraging.


----------



## eljr

schigolch said:


> are people that will be practically immune to COVID


There is no human with any immunity to Covid19.

That is why this is so dangerous.


----------



## mikeh375

tdc said:


> ..........................
> 
> *The UK *and Russia have reportedly downgraded this virus to not a serious threat. I wonder why this isn't being reported on.


I'm in the UK and I'd say that was utter rubbish unless you can show me that report, hopefully from a trusted source.


----------



## tdc

eljr said:


> maybe because the outbreak is so fierce, overwhelming in NYC that there is no time for this nonsense on the news?
> 
> You literally don't even know what this means or how or why.
> 
> unbelievable
> 
> conspiracy is it?


I notice you didn't answer my question in terms of whether you personally know anyone seriously ill from this virus.


----------



## tdc

mikeh375 said:


> I'm in the UK and I'd say that was utter rubbish unless you can show me that report, hopefully from a trusted source.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK."


----------



## schigolch

eljr said:


> There is no human with any immunity to Covid19.
> 
> That is why this is so dangerous.


There are many thousands of people that are infected by Covid and show no symptoms at all, or very mild ones at the most. T


----------



## tdc

Here is a report that shows the CDC claimed at least 80,000 people died from the flu a couple winters ago:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/least-80-000-people-died-flu-last-winter-u-s-n913486

That is a higher amount of deaths than they are projecting for coronavirus right now.


----------



## Art Rock

Well, I guess it was a matter of time. A close relative has caught the disease. He/she (I keep it vague to avoid any chance of identification) is not old, feels pretty sick, but is allowed to stay home. Expectation is that the situation will not escalate. The others in his/her family are OK.


----------



## mmsbls

I know two people. One relative is young and recovering. Another is middle age and we'll see what happens. 

I have seen interviews with doctors working directly with Covid-19 patients. They make it very clear that Covid-19 is nothing like the flu.

As far as I can tell, there are three big issues. 

1) Covid-19 is much more contagious than the flu R0 (Covid-19) ~ 2- 2.5 compared to R0 (flu) ~ 1.3. Estimates do vary, but that's a huge difference resulting in much greater potential growth of infections.

2) Covid-19 has higher case fatality rates. People seem to agree that the flu's CFR is ~ 0.1%. The CFR for Covid-19 has been estimated between 1 - 3.5%. I think most people I've heard place the CFR closer to 1% presumably due to the understanding that many people who have been infected have mild to no symptoms. Still I have never heard that the flu is even close to as fatal as Covid-19. 

3) The rate of hospitalization is much different with Covid-19 being much higher. Doctors worry about hospitals being overwhelmed both just for beds and for ventilators. 

We need more data, but the overwhelming number of reports and institutions make it clear that our best information at this time indicates enormously worse outcomes if strong measures are not implemented. In cases like this, I can't imagine not taking the advice of experts (and by experts I don't mean this one and that one but rather the expert community).


----------



## science

A lot of good information is in this article from the Atlantic: How the Pandemic Will End.


----------



## science

tdc said:


> The UK and Russia have reportedly downgraded this virus to not a serious threat. I wonder why this isn't being reported on.


Russia has changed its tune in the last couple of days. Here's an article from science mag about it.


----------



## science

tdc said:


> A question - does anyone here know anybody, or know someone who knows someone who died of coronavirus? I don't.


I know we're in a lot of different countries but in the US so far only 3 out of 10,000 people have confirmed cases, and 4 out of 1,000,000 people are known to have died. Both of those numbers would probably be higher if we had better information, and both are growing about as quickly as our ability to get information improves.

We probably all do know someone who has it and we'll find out about it in the next week or so.

In the meantime, please take it seriously just in case it is not a mere conspiracy or hoax and just in case your actions can save lives.


----------



## chill782002

mikeh375 said:


> I'm in the UK and I'd say that was utter rubbish unless you can show me that report, hopefully from a trusted source.


Agreed. I'm also in the UK and I have seen no indication that the government is treating this as anything other than a very serious threat. The police have started setting up random checkpoints to stop cars out driving and enquire where the occupants are going and whether their journey is really necessary.


----------



## jegreenwood

tdc said:


> Here is a report that shows the CDC claimed at least 80,000 people died from the flu a couple winters ago:
> 
> https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/least-80-000-people-died-flu-last-winter-u-s-n913486
> 
> That is a higher amount of deaths than they are projecting for coronavirus right now.


From the referenced Atlantic article.

"A study released by a team at Imperial College London concluded that if the pandemic is left unchecked, those beds will all be full by late April. By the end of June, for every available critical-care bed, there will be roughly 15 COVID-19 patients in need of one. By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents. This is the worst-case scenario. To avert it, four things need to happen-and quickly."

And note - that's just Americans.

(From my apartment in NYC)


----------



## erki

With every virus/infection ever will be a number of people who will not get ill - ie. being immune. Even HIV does not kill everybody. Danger is in high infection rate and high death rate.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Now our PM has got it.


----------



## schigolch

elgars ghost said:


> Now our PM has got it.


A good opportunity to read Marcus Aurelius in Greek.


----------



## tdc

science said:


> In the meantime, please take it seriously just in case it is not a mere conspiracy or hoax and just in case your actions can save lives.





mmsbls said:


> We need more data, but the overwhelming number of reports and institutions make it clear that our best information at this time indicates enormously worse outcomes if strong measures are not implemented. In cases like this, I can't imagine not taking the advice of experts (and by experts I don't mean this one and that one but rather the expert community).


Enormously bad outcomes are guaranteed if we listen to some voices suggesting 18-month shut downs, massive money printing (already occurring), and increased governmental powers as a result of this virus. You see how economies have been destroyed in places like the former Soviet Union and Zimbabwe, where because of inflation, a million dollars cannot buy a loaf of bread. These are real outcomes of situations like we are experiencing here, where economies are shutting down and the government is trying to fix it by printing more money. Printing more money is a short term solution that will have catastrophic long term effects. If it actually worked the former Soviet Union would not have collapsed. Inflation is the result and it will make your money worthless, and make poverty and death widespread. However it will not seriously hurt those at the very top who control our financial institutions.

I do take the virus seriously, but the measures being suggested by some are insane and will ensure economic failure, and massive suffering and death as a result of that. Whatever the intent the cure they are suggesting is far worse than the disease.

For those who only get their information on this virus through mainstream media watch this short video by Noam Chomsky which describes how the media is setup. Its primary function is not truth or the common good but to benefit the power structure. Dissenting opinions even if they are truthful or by experts tend to get drowned out.

This is how public consent is manufactured. So when a lot of people talk about "the expert community" what they are often referring to is corporate media narratives.


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> the measures being suggested by some are insane


quoted for irony


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> I notice you didn't answer my question in terms of whether you personally know anyone seriously ill from this virus.


Why should I answer a logical fallacy quip?

But for the record, a fraternity brother of mine passed just this week.


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
> 
> "As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK."


and what happened after this?


----------



## eljr

schigolch said:


> There are many thousands of people that are infected by Covid and show no symptoms at all, or very mild ones at the most. T


This has nothing to do with immunity.


----------



## eljr

Art Rock said:


> Well, I guess it was a matter of time. A close relative has caught the disease. He/she (I keep it vague to avoid any chance of identification) is not old, feels pretty sick, but is allowed to stay home. Expectation is that the situation will not escalate. The others in his/her family are OK.


I can't believe you and I even aquessed to the ridiculous prompting through logical fallacy by an insistent poster.


----------



## eljr

mmsbls said:


> I know two people. One relative is young and recovering. Another is middle age and we'll see what happens.
> 
> I have seen interviews with doctors working directly with Covid-19 patients. They make it very clear that Covid-19 is nothing like the flu.
> 
> As far as I can tell, there are three big issues.
> 
> 1) Covid-19 is much more contagious than the flu R0 (Covid-19) ~ 2- 2.5 compared to R0 (flu) ~ 1.3. Estimates do vary, but that's a huge difference resulting in much greater potential growth of infections.
> 
> 2) Covid-19 has higher case fatality rates. People seem to agree that the flu's CFR is ~ 0.1%. The CFR for Covid-19 has been estimated between 1 - 3.5%. I think most people I've heard place the CFR closer to 1% presumably due to the understanding that many people who have been infected have mild to no symptoms. Still I have never heard that the flu is even close to as fatal as Covid-19.
> 
> 3) The rate of hospitalization is much different with Covid-19 being much higher. Doctors worry about hospitals being overwhelmed both just for beds and for ventilators.
> 
> We need more data, but the overwhelming number of reports and institutions make it clear that our best information at this time indicates enormously worse outcomes if strong measures are not implemented. In cases like this, I can't imagine not taking the advice of experts (and by experts I don't mean this one and that one but rather the expert community).


Those with agendas will simple dispute the science behind these accepted numbers.


----------



## erki

science said:


> A lot of good information is in this article from the Atlantic: How the Pandemic Will End.


This article ends with uplifting fanfare about America being the greatest nation of all who will remedy all ills in a world. Some things never change(or haven't yet at least). So skip last two paragraphs if you are not an american. Otherwise good info indeed.


----------



## Art Rock

eljr said:


> I can't believe you and I even aquessed to the ridiculous prompting through logical fallacy by an insistent poster.


Well, it was not meant as an answer to anyone. Just wanted to share.


----------



## science

jegreenwood said:


> (From my apartment in NYC)


Stay inside! Stay safe!


----------



## eljr

science said:


> I know we're in a lot of different countries but in the US so far only 3 out of 10,000 people have confirmed cases, and 4 out of 1,000,000 people are known to have died. Both of those numbers would probably be higher if we had better information, and both are growing about as quickly as our ability to get information improves.
> 
> We probably all do know someone who has it and we'll find out about it in the next week or so.
> 
> In the meantime, please* take it seriously just in case it is not a mere conspiracy or hoax and just in case your actions can save lives*.


they won't

they will endanger others

I see it everyday


----------



## science

erki said:


> This article ends with uplifting fanfare about America being the greatest nation of all who will remedy all ills in a world. Some things never change(or haven't yet at least). So skip last two paragraphs if you are not an american. Otherwise good info indeed.


I think that is almost satire. The author knows that is not going to happen.


----------



## eljr

erki said:


> With every virus/infection ever will be a number of people who will not get ill - ie. being immune. Even HIV does not kill everybody. Danger is in high infection rate and high death rate.


People, no one is immune. That is why WHO knew this was so serious.

Do a search on RNA and Coronavius to understand this.


----------



## mikeh375

tdc said:


> https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
> 
> "As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK."


Thanks for that tdc, somehow I'm not comforted...


----------



## starthrower

eljr said:


> they won't
> 
> they will endanger others
> 
> I see it everyday


My sister and I have been trying unsuccessfully to convince our 85 year old parents to take this more seriously. After traveling across the country, staying in hotels and eating at restaurants, my mother went right over to a friend's house the next day to hang out for a visit. And I have no doubt this same behavior is going on around the country as the numbers skyrocket.


----------



## Open Book

It's nice to see that the temporary closure of this thread has brought not only less politics but a fresh set of participants who were not here before, with some fresh news sources and ideas.

Here's a thought about the economy. The suspension of all "unnecessary" services in order to keep a majority of people at home is unprecedented and will have severe effects. Surely it will take years to recover from. I almost want to say it frightens me more than the virus. It will have its own associated death toll.

But if the virus is left unchecked, some projections predict the deaths of *millions* in the U.S. alone. I have read *3 to 6 million* from some sources. Out of 327 million people.

By the time millions are dying all around us, won't that have a chilling effect on the economy as well? No one will want to step outside their door and there will be the same economic standstill. Only then it will be caused by people's voluntary behavior, not imposed by the state. So we will have *both* the virus running rampant *and* economic ruin.


----------



## Open Book

On the other hand...

Is any country handling the pandemic by aggressively collecting data in order to see how lethal coronavirus really is? They are scrambling to deal with casualties first, which is understandable. But that shouldn't get in the way of collecting data.

The death rate looks bad from what we can see, about 1.5% in the U.S. But if we don't know how many have it we have only a partial picture, which can be misleading. What if nearly everyone in the U.S. has already been infected and the majority are asymptomatic? Then the death rate would be small.

Ramp up production of test kits. Then randomly test as many people as is necessary to get a true statistical sample.

*We are not testing randomly now. We are only testing people who have shown a need to be tested.* People who have severe symptoms (and who report those symptoms, not people who ride it out quietly at home). Or people known to have had contact with the infected. We're missing lots of other people who might be infected.

*We need to start doing widespread testing of a truly random sample of people. *


----------



## science

Open Book said:


> It's nice to see that the temporary closure of this thread has brought not only less politics but a fresh set of participants who were not here before, with some fresh news sources and ideas.
> 
> Here's a thought about the economy. The suspension of all "unnecessary" services in order to keep a majority of people at home is unprecedented and will have severe effects. Surely it will take years to recover from. I almost want to say it frightens me more than the virus. It will have its own associated death toll.
> 
> But if the virus is left unchecked, some projections predict the deaths of *millions* in the U.S. alone. I have read *3 to 6 million* from some sources. Out of 327 million people.
> 
> By the time millions are dying all around us, won't that have a chilling effect on the economy as well? No one will want to step outside their door and there will be the same economic standstill. Only then it will be caused by people's voluntary behavior, not imposed by the state. So we will have *both* the virus running rampant *and* economic ruin.


None of us can predict what might happen if this gets bad enough.

One reassuring thought, though, is that the rate of survival for people of working age is pretty good. That is the inverse of a terrifying and truly tragic thought, of course, but it does mean that the basic economy ought to be able to keep going.

I don't mean to make any promises -- anything can happen. But I do want to offer some hope that at least the grocery stores will continue to be restocked with food, the electricity will stay on, and so on.


----------



## science

Also, just to put numbers in perspective at the death toll rises -- 

On a normal day in the USA, without coronavirus, about 7000 people die. So yesterday, with 268 known deaths from coronavirus (probably a few more were of course not counted) it was up a few percent. 

I'm not saying the numbers won't get much, much worse -- it looks like they will. I have no prediction about how bad it will get.


----------



## starthrower

science said:


> I don't mean to make any promises -- anything can happen. But I do want to offer some hope that at least the grocery stores will continue to be restocked with food, the electricity will stay on, and so on.


Let's hope that not too many truckers get sick. That industry has a huge turnover rate. And I noticed that the tractor-trailer training school a few miles from my house is closed. This company also has a school in Buffalo which I'm sure is also closed. These schools are the main resource for companies looking to recruit new OTR drivers.


----------



## Open Book

science said:


> Also, just to put numbers in perspective at the death toll rises --
> 
> On a normal day in the USA, without coronavirus, about 7000 people die. So yesterday, with 268 known deaths from coronavirus (probably a few more were of course not counted) it was up a few percent.
> 
> I'm not saying the numbers won't get much, much worse -- it looks like they will. *I have no prediction about how bad it will get.*


Of course _you_ don't know. And _I_ don't know. And right now no one knows. But with real data analysis done by experts, we can all know a lot that we don't know now.

Your name is "science", isn't it? Presumably you understand that science lives on data.


----------



## Flamme

I think it turns into a bit of ''mass hysteria''...I remember reading in ''Mysteries of the world'' by sir Srthur C Clarke how people died from ''evil eyes'' and ''curses'' even if they were healthy as oxes. Or horses. People can die of FEAR itself and self suggestion. Also from suicides that are on tzhe rise.


----------



## erki

The thing is that you will not have whole data. Even if you will be able to test everybody in one time you have data of that timestamp only. The next minute the ones who were un-infected get virus. So maybe it would give more accurate RATE but that could not be too much different from what we know now.
I think the small isolated community like Island could do more testing and predict better the "rate".
As much I understand the social distancing have two major reasons: to spread out the peak so more people can get medical attention and limit the mutation opportunities of the virus.


----------



## Open Book

science said:


> Also, just to put numbers in perspective at the death toll rises --
> 
> On a normal day in the USA, without coronavirus, about 7000 people die. So yesterday, with 268 known deaths from coronavirus (probably a few more were of course not counted) it was up a few percent.
> 
> I'm not saying the numbers won't get much, much worse -- it looks like they will. I have no prediction about how bad it will get.


It's not about how many are dying today, it's how many will be dying daily next week or a few months from now. What's the trend and how fast is it changing.


----------



## Flamme

I think the fact it apppeared in Wuhan that hosts the largest chinese bio weapon lab is not a coincidence. They do eat all sorts of stuff but this is not ''sars 2'' but something different altogether.


----------



## Open Book

erki said:


> The thing is that you will not have whole data. Even if you will be able to test everybody in one time you have data of that timestamp only. The next minute the ones who were un-infected get virus. So maybe it would give more accurate RATE but that could not be too much different from what we know now.
> I think the small isolated community like Island could do more testing and predict better the "rate".
> As much I understand the social distancing have two major reasons: to spread out the peak so more people can get medical attention and limit the mutation opportunities of the virus.


You wouldn't just test and do nothing more. You'd follow all those positive cases until their conclusion -- either recovery or death.

This would be a complete infected population which would give an accurate picture of death rates. There's no reason the death* rate* should be infected by the *number* of people tested, as long as the number tested is large enough for statistical purposes.

Because the positives were detected by random testing, no infected person will be missing from the count. Today there are missing people because we only test those who are visibly infected or can be definitely traced to an infected person. We're not counting infected people who show no symptoms or who stay quietly at home, recover, and think they had nothing more than a cold or the flu.


----------



## Open Book

erki said:


> So maybe it would give more accurate RATE but that could not be too much different from what we know now.


Yes, better testing would affect the rate calculated, and it could be much different from what we know now. We could have a very inaccurate rate now.

It's the death rate of the disease that is affecting our policies. If this were ebola that had gotten loose, we'd all be locked down, because the death rate for that is over 50%.


----------



## science

Open Book said:


> Of course _you_ don't know. And _I_ don't know. And right now no one knows. But with real data analysis done by experts, we can all know a lot that we don't know now.
> 
> Your name is "science", isn't it? Presumably you understand that science lives on data.


I tend toward the skeptical side of everything.

I definitely understand what various models have predicted, and I'm not saying any of them are wrong.


----------



## starthrower

Open Book said:


> It's the death rate of the disease that is affecting our policies. If this were ebola that had gotten loose, we'd all be locked down, because the death rate for that is over 50%.


But Ebola doesn't spread that way. According to Dr. Fauci, one has to be in very close contact with a obviously sick person to contract Ebola. The situation with Covid-19 is the exact opposite.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

This string is worthless ignorant conflicting blather of quiet hysteria .


----------



## adriesba

Flamme said:


> I think the fact it apppeared in Wuhan that hosts the largest chinese bio weapon lab is not a coincidence. They do eat all sorts of stuff but this is not ''sars 2'' but something different altogether.


It is not man-made. A study published in the reputable journal _Nature Medicine _found this.

https://www.genengnews.com/news/cor...t-a-laboratory-construct-genetic-study-shows/


----------



## adriesba

Tikoo Tuba said:


> This string is worthless ignorant conflicting blather of quiet hysteria .


Do you mean thread?
What do you think of COVID-19?


----------



## adriesba

erki said:


> The thing is that you will not have whole data. Even if you will be able to test everybody in one time you have data of that timestamp only. The next minute the ones who were un-infected get virus. So maybe it would give more accurate RATE but that could not be too much different from what we know now.
> I think the small isolated community like Island could do more testing and predict better the "rate".
> As much I understand the social distancing have two major reasons: to spread out the peak so more people can get medical attention and limit the mutation opportunities of the virus.


That is why many tests have to be done over time. The point I think some are trying to make is that, since not everyone who has the disease is tested (they might not know they have it to see a need to get tested), the death rates might be inflated. Perhaps you could better test an entire population that is isolated, but since the isolated population is small, the data would be more likely to be skewed. A large data set is needed for reliable results, and right now some are wondering about the reliability of our current data. At least I'm wondering. I have my doubts about current data.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> The *US knocks China out of the lead* in cases. Rejoice! (I guess)
> 
> Sadly, most curves continue to curl upward.


NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!
NUMBER ONE!!



starthrower said:


> Let's hope that not too many truckers get sick. That industry has a huge turnover rate. And I noticed that the tractor-trailer training school a few miles from my house is closed. This company also has a school in Buffalo which I'm sure is also closed. These schools are the main resource for companies looking to recruit new OTR drivers.


Truckers, by the nature of their jobs, are both high risk and low risk.

They spend hours in isolation, with brief periods of interaction in many, many different places in many different circumstances, whether it's loading, unloading, or stopping for food or using a strange bathroom.


----------



## adriesba

Open Book said:


> It's nice to see that the temporary closure of this thread has brought not only less politics but a fresh set of participants who were not here before, with some fresh news sources and ideas.
> 
> Here's a thought about the economy. The suspension of all "unnecessary" services in order to keep a majority of people at home is unprecedented and will have severe effects. Surely it will take years to recover from. I almost want to say it frightens me more than the virus. It will have its own associated death toll.
> 
> But if the virus is left unchecked, some projections predict the deaths of *millions* in the U.S. alone. I have read *3 to 6 million* from some sources. Out of 327 million people.
> 
> By the time millions are dying all around us, won't that have a chilling effect on the economy as well? No one will want to step outside their door and there will be the same economic standstill. Only then it will be caused by people's voluntary behavior, not imposed by the state. So we will have *both* the virus running rampant *and* economic ruin.


Yes. Those promoting social distancing are citing examples where smaller areas were quarantined. The effects of quarantining a city are minute compared to quarantining several cities or even the entire country or whatever extent this reaches. The effects of widespread social distancing likely have yet to be seen. The world is probably not ready for them.



Open Book said:


> On the other hand...
> 
> Is any country handling the pandemic by aggressively collecting data in order to see how lethal coronavirus really is? They are scrambling to deal with casualties first, which is understandable. But that shouldn't get in the way of collecting data.
> 
> The death rate looks bad from what we can see, about 1.5% in the U.S. But if we don't know how many have it we have only a partial picture, which can be misleading. What if nearly everyone in the U.S. has already been infected and the majority are asymptomatic? Then the death rate would be small.
> 
> Ramp up production of test kits. Then randomly test as many people as is necessary to get a true statistical sample.
> 
> *We are not testing randomly now. We are only testing people who have shown a need to be tested.* People who have severe symptoms (and who report those symptoms, not people who ride it out quietly at home). Or people known to have had contact with the infected. We're missing lots of other people who might be infected.
> 
> *We need to start doing widespread testing of a truly random sample of people. *


Exactly. I have my doubts about our current data. It most certainly is biased. A formal scientific study needs to be done instead of all this panicking to test people who are sick. Has any real science been done with this aspect of the disease?


----------



## science

The Independent: Coronavirus: Teenage boy dies after being turned away from urgent care for not having insurance


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

adriesba said:


> Do you mean thread?
> What do you think of COVID-19?


When is a thread not a string >

I think I'll smell the virus coming toward me a mile away . Meet it or divert . I 
believe in consciousness . Sometimes the best inclination is to engage .


----------



## mountmccabe

Open Book said:


> On the other hand...
> 
> Is any country handling the pandemic by aggressively collecting data in order to see how lethal coronavirus really is? They are scrambling to deal with casualties first, which is understandable. But that shouldn't get in the way of collecting data.
> 
> The death rate looks bad from what we can see, about 1.5% in the U.S. But if we don't know how many have it we have only a partial picture, which can be misleading. What if nearly everyone in the U.S. has already been infected and the majority are asymptomatic? Then the death rate would be small.
> 
> Ramp up production of test kits. Then randomly test as many people as is necessary to get a true statistical sample.
> 
> *We are not testing randomly now. We are only testing people who have shown a need to be tested.* People who have severe symptoms (and who report those symptoms, not people who ride it out quietly at home). Or people known to have had contact with the infected. We're missing lots of other people who might be infected.
> 
> *We need to start doing widespread testing of a truly random sample of people. *


South Korea has done far more widespread testing than most other countries. They're also doing serious contact tracing so people have a better idea of possible exposure and can quarantine themselves appropriately.

In the United States we don't have the ability to test that many people, and we don't have the Personal Protective Equipment to protect the medical staff taking those tests (and to avoid spreading the virus from one person being tested to the next).

In the hardest hit parts of the country, they're focusing resources on helping people, and protecting the medical staff that is caring for these people. It is a retreat, but given where we are at it is the only reasonable option.

For several weeks people have been promising that tests will become common, saying that anyone who wants to can be tested, and so on. And, to be sure, testing has increased. The US only had around 300 confirmed cases three weeks ago, because we were so slow to start testing. Confirmed cases in the US are now approaching 100,000, and that's still a serious undercount.

I know at least a half-dozen people that have been sick with the COVID-19 symptoms. None of them have been tested, because thankfully none of them have been hospitalized.

I want us to get to the point where we can test enough people that opening things up makes sense. But many states are even now not yet locked down, so the virus is still spreading widely. Until that is stopped, we can't catch up.


----------



## DaveM

Those who point to the mortality figures for influenza as an example of an overreaction to Covid-19 need to do some reading. About 75% of flu mortality occurs in those over 65. They often have co-morbid conditions and too many were not vaccinated or didn’t get oral antivirals There were also several thousand deaths in those under 65, but the majority had not been vaccinated or for some reason weren’t treated early on with antiviral medication.

Flu vaccines and oral antivirals have been available for decades. The first flu antiviral (in the 80s) was amantadine, a drug used in the past for Parkinson’s especially in the elderly because of its relative safety. People noticed that the elderly on amantadine in nursing homes didn’t get the flu. Not long after, a company came out with ramantadine specifically for the flu. Over the years since, the flu developed resistance to those drugs and they are no longer used. They have been replaced with Tamiflu and, at least, 2 other drugs, all fairly to very effective depending on the year/flu strain.

An important reason for flu mortality is that people don’t take it seriously. Too many people don’t get vaccinated every year. Even some on this forum have said they don’t get the vaccine as if a badge of honor. The vaccine is sometimes less than 40% in preventing the flu, but it consistently reduces the severity of and mortality from the disease. Also, people don’t take advantage of the oral flu antivirals. The first day of symptoms people should call their doctor and ask for a Tamiflu (or other flu antiviral) prescription, if deemed medically indicated.

Finally, people over 65 should get the Pneumovax (PPSV23) vaccine (if a doctor recommends it for you) because much of the flu mortality in those over 65 is due to secondary bacterial pneumonia.

If people followed the above, the mortality from flu would be much lower.


----------



## starthrower

pianozach said:


> Truckers, by the nature of their jobs, are both high risk and low risk.
> 
> They spend hours in isolation, with brief periods of interaction in many, many different places in many different circumstances, whether it's loading, unloading, or stopping for food or using a strange bathroom.


They're also not the healthiest people in the workforce. They sit on their butts 10 hours a day and many of them smoke like chimney's.


----------



## science

DaveM said:


> Too many people don't get vaccinated every year. Even some on this forum have said they don't get the vaccine as if a badge of honor.


 

Y'all. Herd immunity. There are people who can't get a flu vaccine because their immune systems are compromised. Don't be asses.

Incidentally, just curious -- is the flu vaccine free in the USA?


----------



## eljr

DaveM said:


> people don't take advantage of the oral flu antivirals. The first day of symptoms people should call their doctor and ask for a Tamiflu (or other flu antiviral) prescription, if deemed medically indicated.


it is common for doctors to not prescribe antivirals because the side effects are so awful.


----------



## eljr

science said:


> Incidentally, just curious -- is the flu vaccine free in the USA?


..........................no........................


----------



## adriesba

Tikoo Tuba said:


> When is a thread not a string >
> 
> I think I'll smell the virus coming toward me a mile away . Meet it or divert . I
> believe in consciousness . Sometimes the best inclination is to engage .


...............................................


----------



## DaveM

eljr said:


> it is common for doctors to not prescribe antivirals because the side effects are so awful.


It is not a common reason. And for most people the side effects are not awful. The side effects of the antivirals are generally far less than effects and complications of the flu itself. There are circumstances where they may not be prescribed for certain patients.


----------



## mmsbls

Open Book said:


> On the other hand...
> 
> Is any country handling the pandemic by aggressively collecting data in order to see how lethal coronavirus really is? They are scrambling to deal with casualties first, which is understandable. But that shouldn't get in the way of collecting data.
> 
> The death rate looks bad from what we can see, about 1.5% in the U.S. But if we don't know how many have it we have only a partial picture, which can be misleading. What if nearly everyone in the U.S. has already been infected and the majority are asymptomatic? Then the death rate would be small.
> 
> Ramp up production of test kits. Then randomly test as many people as is necessary to get a true statistical sample.
> 
> *We are not testing randomly now. We are only testing people who have shown a need to be tested.* People who have severe symptoms (and who report those symptoms, not people who ride it out quietly at home). Or people known to have had contact with the infected. We're missing lots of other people who might be infected.
> 
> *We need to start doing widespread testing of a truly random sample of people. *


There is a small county in Colorado, USA (San Miguel County with 8,000 residents) that will test everyone in the county using a somewhat different test than is generally used for determining infections. Their test uses blood and determines whether antibodies for the Covid-19 virus are present.

My understanding is that they will test everyone in the county and then retest everyone 14 days later. I'm not sure how many positives there may be, but as long as the statistics are reasonable, the data could be interesting and useful.


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> On the other hand...
> 
> Is any country handling the pandemic by aggressively collecting data in order to see how lethal coronavirus really is? They are scrambling to deal with casualties first, which is understandable. But that shouldn't get in the way of collecting data.
> 
> The death rate looks bad from what we can see, about 1.5% in the U.S. But if we don't know how many have it we have only a partial picture, which can be misleading. What if nearly everyone in the U.S. has already been infected and the majority are asymptomatic? Then the death rate would be small.
> 
> Ramp up production of test kits. Then randomly test as many people as is necessary to get a true statistical sample.
> 
> *We are not testing randomly now. We are only testing people who have shown a need to be tested.* People who have severe symptoms (and who report those symptoms, not people who ride it out quietly at home). Or people known to have had contact with the infected. We're missing lots of other people who might be infected.
> 
> *We need to start doing widespread testing of a truly random sample of people. *


I know that California is randomly testing among the general population in three cities. But remember that such tests use test kits perhaps more urgently needed elsewhere and also require lab equipment and trained personnel to process, which may be in short supply.

Here's an informative article: *How Coronavirus Tests Actually Work*


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

adriesba said:


> ...............................................


Inarticulate .

What does the dog say ?
woof woof
And what does the cow say ?
moo
Nope , the cow says woof woof .
Why ?
It has a dog in its mouth .


----------



## senza sordino

Source:

Worldometer as of yesterday, Thursday, March 26th.










As I mentioned before, the average daily death toll from the seasonal flu is about 1500 cases per day. Now we're at 2800 deaths per day.


----------



## eljr

adriesba said:


> It is not man-made. A study published in the reputable journal _Nature Medicine _found this.
> 
> https://www.genengnews.com/news/cor...t-a-laboratory-construct-genetic-study-shows/


My buddy posted this on another site... this guy has a noble prize he explains in this post:



> Research papers indicate that SARS-CoV-2 may be a bioweapon
> Before reading my post below, please read the link to the Marketwatch article here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...more_headlines
> 
> I'll explain why I am writing this post, but before I do, let me just level set my professional background about what the information below.
> 
> I retired only two years ago, but I spent my entire career working in Biotech as a professional molecular biologist with a background in Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, developing molecular diagnostics and molecular genetics tests. I'm also one of the inventors of PCR, which is the basic technology that underpins all current COVID-19 diagnostic testing.
> 
> I'm reading some interesting papers I've found on Net about SARS-CoV-2:
> 
> One of them, entitled, "SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronavirus pose threat for human emergence" has some disturbing content. The reference for this publication is: Nat. Med. 2015 December; 21(12): 1508-1513.
> 
> This is as group of scientists working at Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. UNC Chapel Hill is a known and documented site for bioweapons research.
> 
> The abstract of the paper begins...
> 
> "In this study, we examine the disease potential for SARS-like CoVs currently circulating in Chinese horseshoe bat populations."
> 
> This is where it starts to get strange:
> 
> "Utilizing the SARS-CoV infectious clone, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse adapted SARS-CoV backbone."
> 
> Now...here's where it gets scary:
> 
> "The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild type backbone can efficiently utilize multiple ACE2 receptor orthologs, replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells, and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV."
> 
> So, gang...here's what I find alarming...these guys purposely engineered this virus.
> 
> The original SARS-like Coronavirus that can only infect bats cannot infect humans because a protein domain on the viral spike protein cannot bind to the ACE2 receptor on human airway epithelial cells.
> 
> Well...these guys at UNC Chapel Hill engineered one with a Coronavirus spike protein that CAN bind to human airway epithelial cells.
> 
> Now here's the kicker:
> 
> "Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from CoVs utilizing the novel spike protein."
> 
> In other words, our previous SARS based therapies based on monoclonal antibodies and vaccines developed for original SARS coronavirus failed to protect this new, genetically-engineered, I might add, coronavirus from using the "novel" spike protein. In other words, what we developed as therapies for SARS..don't work.
> 
> If that doesn't sound like bioweapons development, I don't know what does..
> 
> Now...for the kicker of all kickers: One of the scientists on this publication, a certain Zhengli Shi, woh was working as a post-doc at UNC Chapel Hill. Guess where she actually works? At the "Key Laboratory of Special Pathogensand Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China
> 
> The laboratory that the Marketwatch article references above is the SAME laboratory that Zhengli Shi works at.
> 
> Now, before you guys think Stephen has gone off the deep end around possible conspirarcy theories, consider this paragraph at the end of the publication cited above:
> 
> "These studies were initiated prior to the U.S. Government Deliberative Process Research Funding Pause on Selected Gain of Function Research Involving Influenza, MERS, and SARS Viruses."
> 
> What does Gain of Function Research on Influenza, MERS and SARS Viruses mean? It means making pathogenic virues more contagious, more pathogenic with a higher lethality index.
> 
> This is code for Bioweapons engineering, gang. Just as "Enhanced Interrogation" is code.
> 
> Think about that....


----------



## adriesba

eljr said:


> My buddy posted this on another site... this guy has a noble prize he explains in this post:


The link doesn't work.

Can you link the source?


----------



## AeolianStrains

adriesba said:


> The link doesn't work.
> 
> Can you link the source?


Looks like it was truncated or copied incorrectly.


----------



## philoctetes

Well, the GEN article is not very convincing... the researchers admit they are depending on "known" assumptions and sequences to make their claims... that the spike naturally evolved seems especially weak... experts don't get a free pass when it comes to simple logic... but I can't find the MW article either...


----------



## pianozach

science said:


> Y'all. Herd immunity. There are people who can't get a flu vaccine because their immune systems are compromised. Don't be asses.
> 
> Incidentally, just curious -- is the flu vaccine free in the USA?


That's a big fat "No".

Healthcare is a "For Profit" industry in the USA.

Some are lucky enough to be rich, and price just doesn't matter, while others have jobs where the employer pays all or maybe half of the cost of Health Insurance. The rest of us were conned by a President (no, NOT Trump this time) that ran as a Progressive, but turned out to be a centrist that caved in to special interests once in office. His call for Universal Health Care was quickly pared down to a "Force the public to buy insurance" Affordable Care Act, which his enemies labelled "Obamacare".

Many simply cannot afford healthcare.

Flu shots can range from $0 (yes, free*, but there are conditions and strings attached) to $50 or more, depending on where you get your shot and what _*kind*_ of vaccine you receive.

However, if you go to an actual doctor's office, there WILL be a fee for an "office visit".


----------



## KenOC

*More Than 500 NYPD Members Test Positive For COVID-19; 4,000 Call Out Sick*.

A very bad thing for life in the big cities if this continues.

BTW flu shots in the US are free for most. They are a named preventive measure under the ACA, which requires that health insurance policies cover such measures with no charge. And all Americans are now required to have such insurance (although penalties for not having it have been removed).

A doctor's visit is not required. My own HMO was using drive-through inoculations, though they gave that up because of traffic snarls. Most facilities have outside kiosks for getting your flu shot. If you have no insurance, major drug chains (and big-box chain stores with pharmacies) offer the shots for $15-30.


----------



## KenOC

pianozach said:


> That's a big fat "No".
> 
> Healthcare is a "For Profit" industry in the USA...


I think we need to be a little careful of generalizations. Most hospitals in the US are owned by various levels of government or are nonprofits, like my own: "Kaiser Permanente is one of the largest nonprofit healthcare plans in the United States, with over 12 million members. It operates 39 hospitals and more than 700 medical offices, with nearly 300,000 personnel, including over 80,000 physicians and nurses." (Wiki)

Only 20% of hospitals are owned by for-profit companies.


----------



## DaveM

^^^ Yes and everybody on Medicare doesn’t pay anything for flu and pneumonia vaccines. Even in the last year I saw charges of as low as $10 for a flu shot. One thing I’ve noticed about some people who complain about $10-30 for a flu shot, if in fact they even have to pay that, is they think nothing of blowing $20-30 on a movie with popcorn and drinks, $75-100/mo for cable TV and so on.


----------



## adriesba

philoctetes said:


> Well, the GEN article is not very convincing... the researchers admit they are depending on "known" assumptions and sequences to make their claims... that the spike naturally evolved seems especially weak... experts don't get a free pass when it comes to simple logic... but I can't find the MW article either...


Well you should remember that the GEN article simplifies things. For more details you would have to look at the actual study in _Nature Medicine. 
_


----------



## AeolianStrains

KenOC said:


> I think we need to be a little careful of generalizations. Most hospitals in the US are owned by various levels of government or are nonprofits, like my own: "Kaiser Permanente is one of the largest nonprofit healthcare plans in the United States, with over 12 million members. It operates 39 hospitals and more than 700 medical offices, with nearly 300,000 personnel, including over 80,000 physicians and nurses." (Wiki)
> 
> Only 20% of hospitals are owned by for-profit companies.


What's the percentage of insurers who are non-profit?


----------



## starthrower

It's interesting how these so called non profits report hundreds of millions in profits and hand out hefty raises and bonuses to their executives.

An example being Excellus Healthcare insurance company here in New York State. They reported over a 170 million in profit and a ten percent raise for their top executives. And anybody in NY who is insured by them through their employer knows that the premiums go up and up and up...


----------



## KenOC

AeolianStrains said:


> What's the percentage of insurers who are non-profit?


I don't know. My insurer is nonprofit. Maybe you can look it up. If you count Medicare and the Medicaid programs, I suspect a very substantial portion of US health insurance is nonprofit.


----------



## KenOC

starthrower said:


> It's interesting how these so called non profits report hundreds of millions in profits and hand out hefty raises and bonuses to their executives.
> 
> An example being Excellus Healthcare insurance company here in New York State. They reported over a 170 million in profit and a ten percent raise for their top executives. And anybody in NY who is insured by them through their employer knows that the premiums go up and up and up...


The same is true of public universities and colleges, who started with the bonuses and big pay raises for everybody when the trough filled up with money from the student loan programs. This drove tuition costs up, obviously.

Fortunately health care insurance is typically bought where alternatives are available, either through several options offered by employers or else through the health care exchanges. This tends to put downward pressure on premium prices.


----------



## starthrower

I don't know? I'm out of the workforce now but before I left my last job two years ago it was 840 dollars a month for an employee and spouse. And that didn't include dental coverage. The only reason I could afford to work there was due to the fact that my half was covered by a fund that paid me an hourly amount over an above my salary. And my wife wasn't on the plan. If I added her I would have had to work more hours to cover the cost or have the difference deducted from my paycheck.


----------



## KenOC

starthrower said:


> I don't know? I'm out of the workforce now but before I left my last job two years ago it was 840 dollars a month for an employee and spouse. And that didn't include dental coverage. The only reason I could afford to work there was due to the fact that my half was covered by a fund that paid me an hourly amount over an above my salary. And my wife wasn't on the plan. If I added her I would have had to work more hours to cover the cost or have the difference deducted from my paycheck.


I'm retired, and my wife got her insurance on the ACA exchange. After the federal subsidy, her policy costs well under $200 a month. I have Medicare Advantage, and that's $100 a month plus $20 for the vision, dental, and hearing add-on. Can't really complain.


----------



## Guest

Health Insurance cover in Australia for myself and spouse: A$556 *PER MONTH*. That seems cheap compared with _starthrower_. We still have out-of-pocket expenses for NON-hospital scans, ex-rays, doctor and specialist visits and the like. If you are having these tests because your doctor has ordered them from hospital you get most of the costs back. We are really only covered for private hospital visits. Also dental and most other ancillaries, where there are yearly limits. We are in the top cover of the fund. If either of us is hospitalized with Covid-19 we can request our own specialist who will bill us separately, or we can say nothing and let the taxpayer cover the public hospital care. The only reason to go with the second option is trying to reduce the burden on health insurance companies by paying for public hospital care when they're really geared for private.

I just don't know how people manage with all this; it's at the breaking point, not just in the USA.


----------



## Metalkitsune

Note, Not everyone who sneezes has the coronavirus. 

I have allergies to dust,flowers and such.

Same with coughing,certain really spicy foods have caused me to cough at times.


----------



## KenOC

Metalkitsune said:


> Note, Not everyone who sneezes has the coronavirus.
> 
> I have allergies to dust,flowers and such.
> 
> Same with coughing,certain really spicy foods have caused me to cough at times.


I saw an article that people were calling 911 when they heard their neighbors cough. Paranoia time, I guess.


----------



## DaveM

Fwiw, Canada’s one-payer system is not all it’s cracked up to be either. My older sister was told she might have an acoustic neuroma in her brain. It was not malignant but might be the cause of her hearing loss. Because it wasn’t malignant she was told that she couldn’t have an MRI for 3-4 months so she paid $1200 to have it earlier. Some time ago, my elderly father was told he would have to wait for 4-5 months for cataract surgery. Could tell a number of other similar stories as well. 

Single-payer systems require gate-keeper GPS so that specialists and hospitals aren’t overloaded and to reduce cost to the government. In Canada, in certain geographical areas, GPS are overloaded and specialists are few and far between.


----------



## mrdoc

My wife and my good self have been in lock down for 3 days with no problems we stocked up and signed up for on line shopping from the local super market, I thought I would try a dummy run as the lock down will be for a minimum of 4 wks all went well until I tried to add a couple of bottles of wine to shopping bskt and they will not deliver alcohol of any type


----------



## Flamme

Metalkitsune said:


> Note, Not everyone who sneezes has the coronavirus.
> 
> I have allergies to dust,flowers and such.
> 
> Same with coughing,certain really spicy foods have caused me to cough at times.


Me 2 in exactly this time of the year.


----------



## starthrower

KenOC said:


> I'm retired, and my wife got her insurance on the ACA exchange. After the federal subsidy, her policy costs well under $200 a month. I have Medicare Advantage, and that's $100 a month plus $20 for the vision, dental, and hearing add-on. Can't really complain.


That's probably what I'll be paying if I get approved for SSDI. I'd rather work but I've had too many injuries and surgeries and I still need one more. Since I'll be tapping into my SS nine years before full retirement age I won't be getting that much. This will be to my wife's advantage as she will be eligible for the essential plan through the ACA which is only 46 dollars a month.


----------



## erki

In my country we have new rules as of today that everybody who is confirmed infected must stay at home quarantine. Will be fined up to 2000EUR otherwise. But for how long? What if I live alone and have nobody to bring food for me? I would not want to report anything to anybody if my symptoms(of whatever disease I have) are tolerable. I would go on moving about - with precautions not to spread infection indeed but no way getting myself tested! So as long I am not tested I have my freedom.


----------



## Flamme

I see there is a tendency that ''social distancing'' becomes a norm even after coronaviris, not an exception. In our world that has already sunk to loneliness, depression and apathy such cold approach isnt needed imo.


----------



## philoctetes

"Data science" is a new kind of fascism... even Dylan knew about those "phony false alarms"


----------



## Flamme

Although I think there is an overreaction 2 this virus I also think this major tectonic shock was much needed 4 the world, long lost in materialism, egoism and blind following of false gods and idoils.


----------



## Art Rock

Correcting for population, and resetting day one to the day of the first Covid-19 death in each country, the Netherlands is completely following the Italian curve (day 23 now). Scary.... Spain is doing even worse in comparison.









_Numbers of deaths reported, corrected to Dutch case in terms of population._


----------



## philoctetes

Flamme said:


> Although I think there is an overreaction 2 this virus I also think this major tectonic shock was much needed 4 the world, long lost in materialism, egoism and blind following of false gods and idoils.


Yes, we'll be better off with cannibalism...


----------



## Flamme

Who knows. But it is RIPE for a change.


----------



## philoctetes

If we can sit here and casually say these things while thousands are dying, and a billion under lockdown, maybe we're the problem...


----------



## Flamme

Ppl are dying every day even in ''normal circumstances'', we must be able to see the big picture.


----------



## philoctetes

Cheering for a viral disaster to wipe out our *sins* is no different than chopping heads for the glory of a *false god*


----------



## Flamme

In my experience its a major nussiance...We have a curfew now from 3 pm on weekends and I usually work un til 5...Governments dont care for wellbeing of their ''subjects'' only for their ruling political class. Like people who gambled while Titanic was going undfer.


----------



## philoctetes

Do you REALLY think this is some kind of rainbow moment for the human race? That there is some kind of reward for this at the end of the tunnel, like a higher, more utopian civilization? As in some Scientology book? Or is it more like The Handmaid's Tale, as some who are less optimistic have said? Which is it and who should I believe?

to heck with all the science fiction... better to talk science even if you know nothing about it...


----------



## philoctetes

When people start talking about the prospects for the future, maybe we need to set up a little casino...

Remember 2012, when the galaxy was supposed to flip out? Never could get anybody to bet on that...


----------



## philoctetes

The human race does not need to commit suicide to stop driving drunk. It just needs to stop drinking... I don't get the sense that's going to happen... although I'm sure some will believe other wise - all you have to do is "educate" - it didn't work before and it won't work later unless ...

unless people are kept in confinement indefinitely.... this will work better in some places than others... half of the US would have to be nuked to get rid of gun owners... this is a GOOD thing of course, right?


----------



## philoctetes

The prospect of indefinite confinement is actually a reality now... most of the world is still on the rising side of the curve... the US will keep rising as long as the scoffers continue to roam... this is what I worry about the most.. and they include many who see no downside..


----------



## Flamme

This is just my ''gut feeling'' that some kind of Change is coming. What kind I dont know, future will tell.


----------



## philoctetes

Flamme said:


> This is just my ''gut feeling'' that some kind of Change is coming. What kind I dont know, future will tell.


I would love to tear down my whole house to make it better, but I need some place to live while it's being rebuilt... I would not wish that on the whole human race right now...

I admit though, we're on that curve whether we like it or not... and require compromise and sacrifice to get over the hump... and if those create a net social positive in some permanent way, I would be happy to be wrong... but "positives" like that are politically subjective... so back to the agendas... and I spend my time attempting to sort out the noise and (dis) information every day...

anyway I commend you for your faith or whatever it is, which is very hard to find right now... I've been through enough fire and flood just over the last two years to see how difficult it is for society to stop "drinking", to do things right... and hear all the dubious talk about it making communities stronger... but my dentist committed suicide after his house burned in the Tubbs fire...and history always writes off the collateral damage whenever recoveries are assessed... something that I've noticed all my life that bugs me... that's why it's not just deaths that measure the damage... and right now the lockdowns are doing plenty of damage that we'll feel for a long time...


----------



## erki

Today we will not know how bad this really gets in the end. Maybe the lesson is so painful that the only prevention strategy in the future would be not to travel around the world at all, lock borders, rely on local production only, elect autocratic leaders, become very religious... Not a pretty prospect.


----------



## pianozach

erki said:


> Today we will not know how bad this really gets in the end. Maybe the lesson is so painful that the only prevention strategy in the future would be not to travel around the world at all, lock borders, rely on local production only, elect autocratic leaders, become very religious... Not a pretty prospect.


Religion is actually one of the reasons why this pandemic is worse than it should have been.


----------



## science

There's a lot of bad news in the world over this -- to be honest, I'm pretty frightened and extremely sad -- but there is a glimmer of hope from South Korea. Their cumulative (from the first case until now) death rate has dropped below 3%, which is to say that their recovery rate is now over 97%. 

The last day for which I see numbers was the 27th; on that day they had 8 deaths (which is actually the second most they've had in a day) and 384 recoveries. Only 1% of their active cases are considered critical. 

They've been having more recoveries than new cases per day for almost three weeks. There's a chance they'll end the month with fewer active cases than they had at the beginning. 

The rest of the world just has to catch up. It's not like this can't be done. Each day that passes, new ideas for treatment are tried, more equipment is created, better practices are shared. 

Not saying it won't get really, really bad -- it looks like it is -- but this can be done.


----------



## senza sordino

Here in British Columbia:



> South China Morning Post from two days ago
> 
> South Korea has been hailed around the world for its vast amount of Covid-19 testing, conducting 20,000 tests per day at the recent height of efforts to fight the disease.
> But Canada's westernmost province of British Columbia is now exceeding that peak daily rate on a per capita basis by a wide margin of about 75 per cent.
> 
> That equates to 690 tests per million people, daily. By comparison, South Korea's peak daily testing rate amounted to about 392 tests per million. BC has a population of 5.1 million, while South Korea has 51 million people.





> CBC News yesterday
> 
> Health officials say physical distancing restrictions in B.C. are successfully beginning to slow the rate of spread of new COVID-19 cases in the province, perhaps by as much as half.
> 
> But despite the "glimmer of hope," provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry and other officials stressed that the province is not out of the woods and the health-care system still needs to be prepared for an inevitable surge in hospitalizations.
> 
> "I'm trying not to over-call it, but I do believe we've seen a flattening, a falling-off of that curve," Henry said Friday, referring to the growth of new COVID-19 patients in B.C.


It appears the curve is flattening here in British Columbia. But today's news stresses that the next fortnight is critical. Whatever we're doing now we need to keep on doing it. We're not under a lockdown here, but many businesses have closed.


----------



## science

senza sordino said:


> Here in British Columbia:
> 
> It appears the curve is flattening here in British Columbia. But today's news stresses that the next fortnight is critical. Whatever we're doing now we need to keep on doing it. We're not under a lockdown here, but many businesses have closed.


That is fantastic news!

Good for y'all!


----------



## TxllxT

Today in Holland 100 of 1000 new respiratory IC equipments arrived from the States (from Philips). In the Czech Republic 500 homemade respiratory machines for the IC will be produced within three days thanks to crowdfunding & cooperation between Czech universities and Czech factories. My guess is that the world will need lots more of IC respiratory equipment (and people who are able to operate them).
In Europe one can notice how the Czech Republic is following Korea's strategy of total lockdown with lots & lots of testing, while Sweden is following the strategy of acquiring 'herd immunity' and letting people themselves decide for quarantaine measures on an individual basis. The Netherlands changed its strategy from Swedish 'laissez faire' to a milder form of lockdown. The trouble with this middle-of-the-road strategy is the unsystematic testing on SARS 2. Don't take the statistics of Holland too seriously. Germany reports only the dead of those who really died due to SARS 2, which results in significant lower numbers than say Italy & Spain.
Wishing everyone in quarantaine the best!


----------



## Flamme

There is a major panic all over the world, the aforementioned Czech republic has accodring to news I red confiscated the masks and respirators that were heaeded for Germany...That thing didnt happen before in Europe.


----------



## Metalkitsune

I also seen at walmart,costco and such some people not following the 6 feet or more rule. I wonder if they want to catch something by not practicing social distancing.


----------



## Kopachris

I'm one of the lucky ones who can continue working from home at the same rate of pay. Everyone salaried at my company took a pay cut, and many are out of work for the time being.


----------



## Flamme

I hear many people are getting Laid...From job! All over. Especially in restaurants and tourism industry that are smashed by this crazy situation. Also us stocks fell down and some speculate the incoming crisis will be worse than 2008. which is VERY bad.


----------



## Machiavel

In the end it will have only cost a ajor recession again and it will be worst than the last one. We should not take it lightly but we are all going batshit crazy. Can you imagine the fera with the climate and what people will accept, new taxes nes rules and so on.

It is so easy to control aentire population with fears and the medias. SO easy in this age where everyeon is anxious over their stupid phones. LEts say we get to 1 million death oer 7.8 billions peoples. IS it really the right thing to lunge the wrold into global recession for a million deaths no matter how tragic it is.

How many dies from accdient, diseases, drunk driving, cancer, old gae. influenza. 

It will b eso convenient, well its the virus its not anyones fault for the global recession and rich getting richer and middle classes gettign closer to the poor class


----------



## TxllxT

Flamme said:


> There is a major panic all over the world, the aforementioned Czech republic has accodring to news I red confiscated the masks and respirators that were heaeded for Germany...That thing didnt happen before in Europe.


http://www.pardam.cz/ Czech made respirators are strategic goods.


----------



## Flamme

So its fake news...They are on the rise.


----------



## senza sordino

We are still officially on Spring Break. We were supposed to return to teaching two days from now, but school has been suspended indefinitely. Somehow I will be teaching remotely from home. And I think I can do it. However, it won't be as effective as an actual classroom. I already had a homework blog (I started it in 2007) where I would post worksheets, the schedule and occasionally YouTube videos and other links I thought were interesting. I will be able to post more worksheets. And I should be able to record some lessons of me writing on a piece of paper and speaking, if I can rig up something to hold my ipad above the paper. The problem with teaching at home for a long while, however, will be assessment, testing. In the meantime, before I can figure out how to record my own lessons, I will post some Khan Academy lessons.

Some of my other colleagues are still teaching the same way they were taught in the 1970s. They have steadfastly refused to put anything online for years claiming students should be in class. Homework is written on the whiteboard. They're going to have to catch up forty years. I'm going to have to catch up a mere ten years.

I think what Nicola Sturgeon said a few days ago is particularly good:



> If this hasn't changed your life, then you're not doing it properly


We're going to get through this as an altered society.


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> There is a major panic all over the world, the aforementioned Czech republic has accodring to news I red confiscated the masks and respirators that were heaeded for Germany...That thing didnt happen before in Europe.


it was not Germany but Italy, and it was a misunderstanding. Czech Republic imposed ban on export of medial protective equipment at the beginning of the crisis and confiscaced some masks from a warehouse owned by some Chinese guy. They only later found out that some 100K of those masks were aid for Italy. But the question is what was aid from China for Italy doing in a Czech warehouse?
https://www.thelocal.it/20200323/cz...ly-replacements-for-seized-chinese-face-masks
you should be careful about spreading Putin style disinformation.


----------



## KenOC

An interesting comparison of countries. It's easy to see why the US is worried.


----------



## Jacck

TxllxT said:


> Today in Holland 100 of 1000 new respiratory IC equipments arrived from the States (from Philips). *In the Czech Republic 500 homemade respiratory machines for the IC will be produced within three days thanks to crowdfunding & cooperation between Czech universities and Czech factories*. My guess is that the world will need lots more of IC respiratory equipment (and people who are able to operate them).
> In Europe one can notice how the Czech Republic is following Korea's strategy of total lockdown with lots & lots of testing, while Sweden is following the strategy of acquiring 'herd immunity' and letting people themselves decide for quarantaine measures on an individual basis. The Netherlands changed its strategy from Swedish 'laissez faire' to a milder form of lockdown. The trouble with this middle-of-the-road strategy is the unsystematic testing on SARS 2. Don't take the statistics of Holland too seriously. Germany reports only the dead of those who really died due to SARS 2, which results in significant lower numbers than say Italy & Spain.
> Wishing everyone in quarantaine the best!


https://news.expats.cz/health-medic...ney-to-build-and-donate-low-cost-ventilators/
yes, we will have no problems with ventilators and we will soon be able to export them. But, the problem is not the lack of ventilators, but the lack of personel trained to operate those. 
I do not understand when Cuomo in NY says he needs 30000 ventilators. Does he have so much personel trained to operate those?


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Metalkitsune said:


> I also seen at walmart,costco and such some people not following the 6 feet or more rule. I wonder if they want to catch something by not practicing social distancing.


I do not practice social distancing . I've long had a watchful eye for people feverish , coughing
and sneezing . Practice awareness . Issue ... issue ... issue ...'scuse me while I sneeze .


----------



## TxllxT

In Holland a scandal is evolving around a recent delivery of 1.3 million mouth caps from China. They were said to be FFP2 but found to be FFP0.8 at best. 600.000 have been called back. Doctors and nurses are being exposed to grave health danger.


----------



## senza sordino

KenOC said:


> An interesting comparison of countries. It's easy to see why the US is worried.


This graph is interesting. But lumping all of the USA or Canada and other countries into one slope each can be problematic. The numbers in New York, New Orleans, Montreal, Milan, Madrid are worrisome. In fact I would rather see this graph with cities instead. That is where the clusters of cases are.


----------



## senza sordino

TxllxT said:


> In Holland a scandal is evolving around a recent delivery of 1.3 million mouth caps from China. They were said to be FFP2 but found to be FFP0.8 at best. 600.000 have been called back. Doctors and nurses are being exposed to grave health danger.


This is troubling. But not surprising. In a rush to produce health equipment quickly shoddy merchandise will be inevitable. And when there's plenty of money flowing, corruption increases.

And corruption will rise as all of our governments inject limitless cash (from where I know not) into the economy .


----------



## KenOC

TxllxT said:


> In Holland a scandal is evolving around a recent delivery of 1.3 million mouth caps from China. They were said to be FFP2 but found to be FFP0.8 at best. 600.000 have been called back. Doctors and nurses are being exposed to grave health danger.


It also appears that a Chinese firm has shipped defective coronavirus test kits to Spain and perhaps other EU countries as well. However, fault is unclear.

"Shenzhen Bioeasy said in a statement that the incorrect results may be a result of a failure to collect samples or use the kits correctly. The firm said it had not adequately communicated with clients how to use the kits.

"The Spanish ministry said it will withdraw the kits that returned incorrect results, and would replace them with a different testing kit provided by Shenzhen Bioeasy."


----------



## Jacck

senza sordino said:


> This graph is interesting. But lumping all of the USA or Canada and other countries into one slope each can be problematic. The numbers in New York, New Orleans, Montreal, Milan, Madrid are worrisome. In fact I would rather see this graph with cities instead. That is where the clusters of cases are.


NY Times have some interesting graphs for those of us who like graphs
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html


----------



## Jacck

*Italy: «The real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers»*
https://www.corriere.it/politica/20...rs-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml


----------



## philoctetes

We are seeing entire nation-states turn to hoarding... Cuomo didn't need 30k ventilators, he just wanted to build an inventory of them... it's the biggest grab-fest I've ever seen...


----------



## philoctetes

I too would like to see curves for individual US cities... it's a large land mass and I'd like to see how different urban and rural areas compare... one thing that has been noted by those who can stand to admit it that most, if not all of the cities hit hardest are well... politically blue... but that will probably change this week so it would be good to see the data organized on a finer geographical grid...

I admit, I may think data science is socially dangerous, just like surveillance or AI, but it has good uses if it can be trusted... we've already seen arguments about which data points to use or not use... and that's pretty typical...


----------



## science

philoctetes said:


> most, if not all of the cities hit hardest are well... politically blue...


Essentially all American cities are politically blue. It's practically the definition of the parties now -- the diverse cities are blue, the rural white areas are red. The suburbs are where the nations meet.

It appears worst in the cities because that's where the airports are, they have a higher population density for the virus to spread more easily, but also they're also more likely to have resources to set up tests and get results.

As someone with family in mostly red states, I'm afraid this discrepancy is less about how much of the virus there is and more about where it's been tested. West Virginia probably wasn't the last state in the union to get the virus -- but it definitely was the last state in the union to have someone with it who was important enough to get tested.

Working class folks in the red states have high rates of diabetes, heart disease, obesity, and smoking, to go along with high rates of not having health insurance. I'm gonna guess it's a lot worse than it looks in Appalachia and the rural South because as usual people aren't looking in Appalachia or the rural South.

So it's not red/blue as much as it is class and race. The people who always get helped most are going to get helped most; the people who always get hurt worst are going to get hurt worst.

The one political thing that might really matter might be in Florida and Illinois, where the Democratic Party primaries were held after people should've known better.


----------



## Open Book

The shortages have gone beyond toilet paper and disinfectant in my town. 

Yesterday I tried to order my normal groceries online (delivered to your door) from my local supermarket and before I was done all the fresh meat I had in my cart was out of stock. 

I tried Whole Foods this morning only to find that they were swamped and will do no more deliveries for at least the weekend. And some of their fresh meat went out of stock, too.

People must be buying big freezers and hoarding food now, unless there's a problem with suppliers.


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> The one political thing that might really matter might be in Florida and Illinois, where the Democratic Party primaries were held after people should've known better.


if it is true then it was really stupid from the Democrats. The same happened in Spain
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...spain-on-womens-day-despite-coronavirus-fears
now they are sorry. 
And the same in New Orleans and the Mardi Gras
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/coronavirus-louisiana-new-orleans.html


----------



## philoctetes

"Essentially all American cities are politically blue"

This is not true, but I would agree that the cities that have been hit are major destinations for public travel, and most conservative cities are not in that category. I think that's the major thing... so when spring breakers go home from these destinations, more conservative cities will be contaminated... this is what I do not want to blur over with lumpy data analysis, but apparently this is a lost point, as usual round here... if you start with the assumption stated that all cities are blue, well, your not gonna get the job on my data team...


----------



## science

philoctetes said:


> "Essentially all American cities are politically blue"
> 
> This is not true, but I would agree that the cities that have been hit are major destinations for public travel, and most conservative cities are not in that category. I think that's the major thing... so when spring breakers go home from these destinations, more conservative cities will be contaminated... this is what I do not want to blur over with lumpy data analysis, but apparently this is a lost point, as usual round here... if you start with the assumption stated that all cities are blue, well, your not gonna get the job on my data team...


What do you have in mind as a conservative city?


----------



## science

Jacck said:


> if it is true then it was really stupid from the Democrats. The same happened in Spain
> https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...spain-on-womens-day-despite-coronavirus-fears
> now they are sorry.
> And the same in New Orleans and the Mardi Gras
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/coronavirus-louisiana-new-orleans.html


Not merely stupid; murderous.

Anyone who wants to discuss the political and media responses to coronavirus in the USA is free to join us in the groups but we can't really do it here.


----------



## eljr

Tikoo Tuba said:


> I do not practice social distancing .


are you from the states? do you mean even now?


----------



## philoctetes

I was pleasantly surprised that CA did not take this finger-pointing posture and took action very early to stop the spread while accommodating the arrival of *boat people*... 

This is why I want to see finely resolved data, they actually have cellphone data on hundreds if not thousands of spring breakers, where they went and where they returned to...


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> I was pleasantly surprised that CA did not take this finger-pointing posture and took action very early to stop the spread while accommodating the arrival of *boat people*...
> 
> This is why I want to see finely resolved data, they actually have cellphone data on hundreds if not thousands of spring breakers, where they went and where they returned to...


I even took the time to get her quote for you:

"When it's not taken seriously at the federal level it's very difficult to transcend down to the local level in making these decisions," Cantrell said. "In hindsight, if we were given proper direction, we would not have had Mardi Gras and I would have been the leader to cancel it."


----------



## eljr

Metalkitsune said:


> I also seen at walmart,costco and such some people not following the 6 feet or more rule. I wonder if they want to catch something by not practicing social distancing.


I think it's more that they are freakin morons. I have found that the people with piles of toilet paper in their carts are the same ones that don't respect distancing.


----------



## erki

We do not see yet how dangerous this virus is over all. The numbers(and graphs) tell us only rates among people tested. And that number is very small of whole population(how many tests have been done over all?). So it may very well be this the virus does not have that big of an effect on human health generally. Keep in mind that out of the number tested cases only part turn out to be infected and out of that number some get very ill, some die but some get well too. In my country 9 thousand tests are done and 640 out of these are tested positive. Then 48 are taken to the hospital and 10 are in intensive care. 20 are recovered. So let's assume that the actual number of infected is 100 000 or even more. That tells me that the impact to the health overall is not that serious at all. Sure, it may get worse. But it seems to me that most of us will go through this without noticing much if at all.

What we do experience is the increased need for hospitalisations than with any other seasonal pandemic before and medical system failure to cope with it. But in overall it is not that terrible, is it.


----------



## science

eljr said:


> I think it's more that they are freakin morons. I have found that the people with piles of toilet paper in their carts are the same ones that don't respect distancing.


Not for nothing.

They're the people who've been failed by our institutions so much that they don't know who to trust.

They're the people who are thinking about how to hold on to their dignity during a crisis because frankly that's all they ever have in a crisis.

I'm not saying that they're right, but I think if we learn to see the world from their perspective their behavior makes more sense. And until we learn to see the world from their perspective -- and manage to create a new relationship between them and the institutions that ought to serve them -- we won't be able to change their behavior significantly.

I don't mean this to sound preachy; I only mean that we could all be a little more aware of this dynamic.


----------



## KenOC

We're just getting started here, but the curve looks familiar. BTW the health authorities have now started reporting the cases by city, which they resisted up to this point.


----------



## eljr

science said:


> I tend toward the skeptical side of everything.
> 
> I definitely understand what various models have predicted, and I'm not saying any of them are wrong.


You sound just like me in this post.


----------



## philoctetes

eljr said:


> You sound just like me in this post.


It's good to spread your skepticism over a very broad scope.... and that's one reason we disagree... obviously I disagree with just about everybody here but feel no pressure at all to change my mind...


----------



## eljr

adriesba said:


> The link doesn't work.
> 
> Can you link the source?





AeolianStrains said:


> Looks like it was truncated or copied incorrectly.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=mw_more_headlines


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> We do not see yet how dangerous this virus is over all. The numbers(and graphs) tell us only rates among people tested. And the that number is very small of whole population(how many tests have been done over all?). So it may very well be this the virus does not have that big of an effect on human health generally. Keep in mind that out of the number tested cases only part turn out to be infected and out of that number some get very ill, some die but some get well too. In my country 9 thousand tests are done and 640 out of these are tested positive. Then 48 are taken to the hospital and 10 are in intensive care. 20 are recovered. So let's assume that the actual number of infected is 100 000 or even more. That tells me that the impact to the health overall is not that serious at all. Sure, it may get worse. But it seems to me that most of us will go through this without noticing much if at all. What we do experience is the increased need for hospitalisations than of any other seasonal pandemic before and medical system failure to cope with it. But in overall it is not that terrible, is it.


A good estimates can be done from the data among the medical personel. I did the calculation for the Spanish doctors a couple of days ago and they had a death rate of 0.3-0.4%. They are a well tested group and they are quite healthy on average. And yes, it is bad. Those comparing it to flu are in reality denial. I have never seen a flu that could collapse the healthcare system of a country like it happened in Italy, Spain and Wuhan.


----------



## KenOC

Grocery store queues are now marked at 6-foot intervals for social distancing. My wife just sent me this photo. Also a photo of empty shelves…


----------



## eljr

adriesba said:


> The link doesn't work.
> 
> Can you link the source?





science said:


> Not for nothing.
> 
> They're the people who've been failed by our institutions so much that they don't know who to trust.
> 
> They're the people who are thinking about how to hold on to their dignity during a crisis because frankly that's all they ever have in a crisis.
> 
> I'm not saying that they're right, but I think if we learn to see the world from their perspective their behavior makes more sense. And until we learn to see the world from their perspective -- and manage to create a new relationship between them and the institutions that ought to serve them -- we won't be able to change their behavior significantly.
> 
> I don't mean this to sound preachy; I only mean that we could all be a little more aware of this dynamic.


Good post.

That said, understanding what gives rise to there actions is important however at what point does one become responsible for oneself? 
Sociopaths are generally horribly victimized as youths. Do we forgive their crimes because of this?

Life is hard and it's not fair.

I want my toilet paper available and my six feet no matter what your excuse.


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> I have never seen a flu that could collapse the healthcare system of a country like it happened in Italy, Spain and Wuhan.


As I say the health care system is unable the coupe(because the need increase so rapidly) but overall how bad is the reality. Like do we loose 20% of human population in the end or 50% or 0.01% or 0.0001%


----------



## KenOC

eljr said:


> There is a political group here. Take your extremist political crap there. That is where it's allowed. Thanks.


I personally find extremism rife among those who disagree with my views, but quite rare among those with more correct ways of seeing things. It has always been thus.


----------



## science

eljr said:


> Good post.


Well, thank you. You're on a roll yourself.



eljr said:


> I want my toilet paper available and my six feet no matter what your excuse.


No pun intended.



eljr said:


> That said, understanding what gives rise to there actions is important however at what point does one become responsible for oneself?
> Sociopaths are generally horribly victimized as youths. Do we forgive their crimes because of this?
> 
> Life is hard and it's not fair.


In general, I'm not very interested in assigning blame, figuring out how much anyone should be punished or blamed, or to what extent their action are "free" or anything like that.

I just don't have even nearly enough insight to answer questions like that, and if I did have that insight, I still wouldn't have the ability to persuade other people to agree with me!


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> As I say the health care system is unable the coupe(because the need increase so rapidly) but overall how bad is the reality. Like do we loose 20% of human population in the end or 50% or 0.01%


nobody knows. The virus outbreak could peak in April and then slowly wane, or it could go on much longer. The worst case scenario is that we will lose 2% of the world population (it will most likely be much less)


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> A good estimates can be done from the data among the medical personel. I did the calculation for the Spanish doctors a couple of days ago and they had a death rate of 0.3-0.4%. They are a well tested group and they are quite healthy on average. And yes, it is bad. Those comparing it to flu are in reality denial. I have never seen a flu that could collapse the healthcare system of a country like it happened in Italy, Spain and Wuhan.


In China, the coronavirus fatality rate has settled down at 4.2%. Given that almost all cases are now "closed" by discharge or death, this is unlikely to change much unless there is a new flareup.

Italy is doing rather worse. Deaths are 10.8% of all currently identified cases. This means that even if every one of the "active" cases survives, the final fatality rate will still be over 10%. Only a large slug of new cases with an aggregate death rate well under 10% can lower the overall fatality rate, and even then probably not by much.

I don't understand why the apparent fatality rates vary so much across the world.

BTW fatality rates per million people by country, sortable, can be found *here*.


----------



## Kieran

KenOC said:


> In China, the coronavirus fatality rate has settled down at 4.2%. Given that almost all cases are now "closed" by discharge or death, this is unlikely to change much unless there is a new flareup.
> 
> Italy is doing rather worse. Deaths are 10.8% of all currently identified cases. This means that even if every one of the "active" cases survives, the final fatality rate will still be over 10%. Only a large slug of new cases with an aggregate death rate well under 10% can lower the overall fatality rate, and even then probably not by much.
> 
> I don't understand why the apparent fatality rates vary so much across the world.


Italy's ageing population is bound to affect their numbers:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

China's untrustworthiness in general would affect their stats in the opposite direction...


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> I personally find extremism rife among those who disagree with my views, but quite rare among those with more correct ways of seeing things. It has always been thus.


given your template, extremists are afforded infinite cover from their extreme tendencies being identified


----------



## KenOC

Kieran said:


> Italy's ageing population is bound to affect their numbers:
> 
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285...


However in Japan, the world's oldest country, and in Germany, which is almost as old as Italy, death rates are far lower.


----------



## eljr

more to think about

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Harvard University Professor and Two Chinese Nationals Charged in Three Separate China Related Cases

The Department of Justice announced today that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.

Dr. Charles Lieber, 60, Chair of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Harvard University, was arrested this morning and charged by criminal complaint with one count of making a materially false, fictitious and fraudulent statement. Lieber will appear this afternoon before Magistrate Judge Marianne B. Bowler in federal court in Boston, Massachusetts.

Yanqing Ye, 29, a Chinese national, was charged in an indictment today with one count each of visa fraud, making false statements, acting as an agent of a foreign government and conspiracy. Ye is currently in China.

Zaosong Zheng, 30, a Chinese national, was arrested on Dec. 10, 2019, at Boston’s Logan International Airport and charged by criminal complaint with attempting to smuggle 21 vials of biological research to China. On Jan. 21, 2020, Zheng was indicted on one count of smuggling goods from the United States and one count of making false, fictitious or fraudulent statements. He has been detained since Dec. 30, 2019.

Unbeknownst to Harvard University beginning in 2011, Lieber became a “Strategic Scientist” at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China and was a contractual participant in China’s Thousand Talents Plan from in or about 2012 to 2017.


----------



## KenOC

I seldom see Switzerland mentioned here. Actually it is the most-infected significant country in Europe with 1,626 coronavirus cases her million people, edging out both Italy and Spain. Its death rate is 31 per million people, slightly more than Iran’s.

I don’t know the reason for this, but maybe it doesn’t help that it abuts northern Italy.


----------



## Kieran

KenOC said:


> However in Japan, the world's oldest country, and in Germany, which is almost as old as Italy, death rates are far lower.


Really? That's interesting...


----------



## Room2201974

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/charles-lieber-arrested-coronavirus/


----------



## TurnaboutVox

We have removed several posts from the thread that are either purely political opinion, or are comments about or insults towards other members (or quotations of these). We've also edited a couple of posts to remove inappropriate material.

This is an important thread so please try to stick to the topic. Then it won't get closed again.


----------



## BobBrines

"BTW fatality rates per million people by country, sortable, can be found here."

Thank you for some meaningful numbers. Raw numbers are absolutely useless in understanding the scope of the local infection rate. Our TV press is screaming extremely low numbers as if it was Armageddon. But then the population of the state of Arkansas, USA is only some 3 million.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> I personally find extremism rife among those who disagree with my views, but quite rare among those with more correct ways of seeing things. It has always been thus.


I am SO stealing this and using it elsewhere.


----------



## Open Book

Originally Posted by eljr View Post
"I think it's more that they are freakin morons. I have found that the people with piles of toilet paper in their carts are the same ones that don't respect distancing."



science said:


> Not for nothing.
> 
> They're the people who've been failed by our institutions so much that they don't know who to trust.
> 
> They're the people who are thinking about how to hold on to their dignity during a crisis because frankly that's all they ever have in a crisis.
> 
> I'm not saying that they're right, but I think if we learn to see the world from their perspective their behavior makes more sense. And until we learn to see the world from their perspective -- and manage to create a new relationship between them and the institutions that ought to serve them -- we won't be able to change their behavior significantly.
> 
> I don't mean this to sound preachy; I only mean that we could all be a little more aware of this dynamic.


The people you are judging have the right instincts. They know there are going to be more and more restrictions on our movements as this plays out. We could wake up one day and suddenly be confined to our homes by our leaders. So they find ingenious ways to stock up on things they don't want to be caught without when they are totally grounded. Selfish, but understandable.

First it was toilet paper, that was funny. Then disinfectants, annoying. Now some food is being depleted fast. It's getting scary.

It's contagious. When you see things disappearing from shelves you say, I'd better get some while I can, too, while you deplore the behavior and try not to overdo it.

As far as trusting our institutions, I'm not sure I do either. Not from paranoia, just because this situation is so new and I don't think anybody really knows exactly what to do about it.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

eljr said:


> are you from the states? do you mean even now?


I pay no attention to social distancing . It's stupid . Will you invent a dance-style for it ? That'd
make it something to wonder at .


----------



## starthrower

Re: Open Book
I don't trust our government institutions to prioritize public interest in this crisis, nor in the painful aftermath. Not as long as billions of tax dollars are at stake for the interests that finance our political "leadership". Citizens are already on the losing end and it's going to get worse. That's all I'm going to say because this thread is supposed to be apolitical. Imagine that! You can do your own digging. There's a lot of detailed stuff being covered in print media if you turn off the TV and start reading. And I know many here do. I'm just not so sure about that 80 percent that are the most vulnerable. People know they're being lied to and getting the short end of the stick. But trying to figure it all out? Just follow the money.


----------



## DaveM

Tikoo Tuba said:


> I pay no attention to social distancing . It's stupid . Will you invent a dance-style for it ? That'd
> make it something to wonder at .


You do know that this is starting to get old.


----------



## Flamme

Belgrade is totally EMPTY. Weird feeling


----------



## eljr

Tikoo Tuba said:


> I pay no attention to social distancing . It's stupid . Will you invent a dance-style for it ? That'd
> make it something to wonder at .


i'll take this to mean you are here just to troll, to incite

this could be a very healthy, important thread here


----------



## erki

I think the more we go through this crisis we need to remember the question how serious the disease *really* is. We would never know what was the actual infection rate. All decisions made today are based on fraction of reality(tested individuals) and the problem is with health care capability only.
When this is over we need to rethink the wisdom of the restrictions imposed today. And I hope we can identify the un-necessary ones and will not repeat these next time.
There is a danger to measure the this crisis now and in the future only by small specific sample and discard the unmeasurable. 
Like if (measurable)2% of world population dies of this infection but (unmeasurable)80-90% gets and mostly will not even notice it the outcome is not too bad at all and steppes taken today(effectively killed economy) are because of the structure of developed nations healthcare industry?


----------



## Flamme

Fog of biological war...But not China vs the World. But multinational corporations versus traditional state system.


----------



## starthrower

This doctor goes into detail about what this virus does to your lungs. It's pretty horrible.


----------



## eljr

erki said:


> I think the more we go through this crisis we need to remember the question how serious the disease *really* is. We would never know what was the actual infection rate. All decisions made today are based on fraction of reality(tested individuals) and the problem is with health care capability only.
> When this is over we need to rethink the wisdom of the restrictions imposed today. And I hope we can identify the un-necessary ones and will not repeat these next time.
> There is a danger to measure the this crisis now and in the future only by small specific sample and discard the unmeasurable.
> Like if (measurable)2% of world population dies of this infection but (unmeasurable)80-90% gets and mostly will not even notice it the outcome is not too bad at all and steppes taken today(effectively killed economy) are because of the structure of developed nations healthcare industry?


I cannot accept trading lives for money, sorry, we disagree.


----------



## Triplets

eljr said:


> I cannot accept trading lives for money, sorry, we disagree.


I am a Primary Care Physician, practicing for over 30 years. I also have chronic heart and lung disease, and every day that I go to work I am hoping fervently that the next patient or family member that accompanies them, isn't the death of me.
Every year I have patients that die of influenza. I also have patients that die or are horribly mangled in automobile, motorcycle, even plane crashes. I have patients that are injured by firearms. 
If we were to place an absolute value on each human life, we would quarantine during flu season, eliminate cars, air travel, motorcycles. In the U.S. we can't muster the will to restrict guns. Even the most committed climate change advocates can't refrain from hours of on line time that burn fossil fuels.
We all live our daily lives at some risk. We generally accept some risk because we accept that the benefits accrued from being out and about justify a low level of risk.
I support the present quarantine and wish that it would be expanded. I am not a Wall St Plutocrat. However we need to have a rational policy that tells us what the next step is and inevitably, it will have to allow some level of risk, because the risk will never be down to zero


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> I think the more we go through this crisis we need to remember the question how serious the disease *really* is. We would never know what was the actual infection rate. All decisions made today are based on fraction of reality(tested individuals) and the problem is with health care capability only.
> When this is over we need to rethink the wisdom of the restrictions imposed today. And I hope we can identify the un-necessary ones and will not repeat these next time.
> There is a danger to measure the this crisis now and in the future only by small specific sample and discard the unmeasurable.
> Like if (measurable)2% of world population dies of this infection but (unmeasurable)80-90% gets and mostly will not even notice it the outcome is not too bad at all and steppes taken today(effectively killed economy) are because of the structure of developed nations healthcare industry?


when making critical decisions in a situation of uncertainty, it is always better to err on the side of extreme caution than the other way around. Whoever does not understand this basic principle is not very clever imho. We do not know enough about the virus. There were some reports that it might also infect the testes and cause infertility even in asymptomatic people
https://cntechpost.com/2020/03/12/new-coronavirus-may-cause-testicular-damage/
so what if it later turns out, that large percentage of the young people become infertile? Is it worth sacrificing the economy for?
(it is likely not true about the infertility, I am just trying to make a point about making decisions).
Economy will rebound, just like it did rebound about WW2 or any other similar situation.


----------



## Flamme

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11078115


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> when making critical decisions in a situation of uncertainty, it is always better to err on the side of extreme caution than the other way around. Whoever does not understand this basic principle is not very clever imho. We do not know enough about the virus. There were some reports that it might also infect the testes and cause infertility even in asymptomatic people
> https://cntechpost.com/2020/03/12/new-coronavirus-may-cause-testicular-damage/
> so what if it later turns out, that large percentage of the young people become infertile? Is it worth sacrificing the economy for?
> (it is likely not true about the infertility, I am just trying to make a point about making decisions).
> Economy will rebound, just like it did rebound about WW2 or any other similar situation.


The country and large swaths of the entire world is closed down and someone is questioning the seriousness of the disease?

It's surreal to see people say/think like that.


----------



## Flamme




----------



## Vronsky




----------



## eljr

Triplets said:


> I am a Primary Care Physician, practicing for over 30 years. I also have chronic heart and lung disease, and every day that I go to work I am hoping fervently that the next patient or family member that accompanies them, isn't the death of me.
> Every year I have patients that die of influenza. I also have patients that die or are horribly mangled in automobile, motorcycle, even plane crashes. I have patients that are injured by firearms.
> If we were to place an absolute value on each human life, we would quarantine during flu season, eliminate cars, air travel, motorcycles. In the U.S. we can't muster the will to restrict guns. Even the most committed climate change advocates can't refrain from hours of on line time that burn fossil fuels.
> We all live our daily lives at some risk. We generally accept some risk because we accept that the benefits accrued from being out and about justify a low level of risk.
> I support the present quarantine and wish that it would be expanded. I am not a Wall St Plutocrat. However we need to have a rational policy that tells us what the next step is and inevitably, it will have to allow some level of risk, because the risk will never be down to zero


you took it to the extreme which is nothing but a logical fallacy

This conversation is in respect to Covid-19 not in relation to the flu or firearms or automobiles....

BTW, I hope you do not acquire the damned virus as you treat others. Be well.


----------



## starthrower

New Orleans is on track to be the next epicenter for the virus. My sister and brother in law are in Baton Rouge. They were in the middle of plans to sell their house and move to Charlotte but that's obviously on hold now.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-coming-new-orleans/608821/


----------



## DaveM

Triplets said:


> I am a Primary Care Physician, practicing for over 30 years. I also have chronic heart and lung disease, and every day that I go to work I am hoping fervently that the next patient or family member that accompanies them, isn't the death of me...


You're in a difficult situation given the various common, still active, respiratory illnesses out there other than coronavirus. How to tell the difference sometimes? In addition to walk-in patients, your phone line must be awfully busy. You're on a front line that isn't mentioned very much: It's courageous work you do. Take care! (I'm semi-retired. If I weren't, my face would often be a foot or two from patients' coughing faces and I also have a pre-existing condition.)


----------



## erki

eljr said:


> I cannot accept trading lives for money, sorry, we disagree.


What do you disagree with? Where in my text you get the idea of trading lives for money?


----------



## erki

eljr said:


> The country and large swaths of the entire world is closed down and someone is questioning the seriousness of the disease?
> 
> It's surreal to see people say/think like that.


Closing down the economy is serious indeed, but does not tell anything about the seriousness of the virus - just the problems with healthcare. Serious is that need for hospitalisation grows very rapidly.


----------



## Bigbang

Tikoo Tuba said:


> I pay no attention to social distancing . It's stupid . Will you invent a dance-style for it ? That'd
> make it something to wonder at .


Shutting down economies is stupid??? In other words if governments are willing to destroy short term prosperity for long term gain in recovery, how can it be a joke? Remember, one has to know the theories on virus transmission to get the subtle points. SD leads to lesser chances of transmitting the virus itself.


----------



## mmsbls

There's a serious question about the proper actions to take for any society in confronting the coronavirus. Most countries are taking very strong actions including sheltering in place with major disruptions to the economy. Some suggest that we should not take such actions because the economic effect will be too devastating. In my line of work we frequently assess multiple scenarios to understand which ones seem best. To do so, one must evaluate each scenario and make comparisons. It is simply worthless to point out the problems with one scenario without evaluating the others. 

My expertise has nothing to do with health or economic issues so I would love to see such evaluations for various scenarios of responding to the covid-19 virus. At a minimum the scenarios would need to include the health (morbidity and mortality) and the economic consequences of each scenario. I have seen models that predict some health outcomes and models that predict some economic outcomes but nothing that systematically modeled both. I made some very simple calculations based on information that seems reasonable. I tried to make simplistic estimates of the $US value of both health and economic outcomes to see how they might compare under differing scenarios. I did this for both the US and the world, but I have too little confidence in my numbers for the world so I just focused on the US. Likely the US results would be similar to those of other economically advanced countries. There are many assumptions and potential significant uncertainties with these calculations, but perhaps it can give people a way to look at two very different ways of responding to the virus.

I considered 2 very different scenarios. Scenario 1 assumes no significant societal action (people still go to work, no sheltering in place, etc.). Scenario 2 assumes strong societal response with work shutdowns, sheltering in place, etc.. I assumed the following:

US population: 330 million
US economy: $22 trillion
High value of human life: $6 million
Low value of human life: $3 million
Percent of infections leading to hospitalization: 5%
% infections leading to death in scenario 1: 2%
% infections leading to death in scenario 2: 1%
Percent of population that will be infected under scenario 1: 25%
Percent of population that will be infected under scenario 2: 2.5%

Health Results:
Outcomes Scenario 1 Scenario2
Infections: 82 million, 8 million
Hospitalizations: 4 million, 400 thousand
Deaths: 1.6 million, 82 thousand
High death value: $10 trillion, $500 million
Low death value: $5 trillion, $250 million

The US Chamber of Commerce has estimated the effect on the economy under a scenario similar to the present (Scenario 2). They estimate a reduction in GDP of 12.4% for the 2nd quarter with significant increases for Q3 and Q4 (in their words: If the outbreak is fully contained and the economy opened up during the second quarter, the third and fourth quarter growth figures should be as eye-catchingly large as the second quarter will be concerning.) I assumed an additional 6.2% reduction in economic output the remainder of the year.

Economic Results:

GDP reduction Scenario 2: $1.4 trillion
GDP reduction Scenario 2 (assume twice the impact): $2.4 trillion
GDP reduction Scenario 1: I don't know how to estimate this. My calculations result in 4.1 million hospitalizations. Even assuming that 40% are people who might work that leads to 1.6 million people out of work for significant periods. I assume Scenario 1 would also include a recession, but I don't know how serious. 

Overall Comparisons:

Scenario 1 effect (high value of life): $10 trillion + economic impact
Scenario 1 effect (low value of life): $5 trillion + economic impact
Scenario 2 effect (high value of life): $1.9 trillion
Scenario 2 effect (low value of life): $1.65 trillion
Scenario 2 effect (high value of life and twice economic effect): $3.2 trillion
Scenario 2 effect (low value of life and twice economic effect): $3 trillion

The impact of Scenario 1 is vastly larger than Scenario 2 even without including the economic impact of Scenario 1. I assume this is why just about everyone I've read strongly suggests some policy similar to Scenario 2.


----------



## Bigbang

erki said:


> Closing down the economy is serious indeed, but does not tell anything about the seriousness of the virus - just the problems with healthcare. Serious is that need for hospitalisation grows very rapidly.


The virus and the seriousness of it is still unknown in its entirety. Their not focusing on that issue at the moment. Instead it is about putting out the fire itself.

The fact is that really this is not new except now a virus has mutated to easily spread BUT the same issues apply as before in the past. How to you try to avoid getting a cold? The flu? And other contagious disease? The power is in each individual hands as always to help stop it from getting worse than it already is.

If the governments really thought they could get people to focus on preventing it then "stupid" ideas such as "social distancing" would probably not be necessary. That's right! People who go around sucking their thumbs and cannot be forced to stop picking their noses before making your sandwiches is a real problem here.

There now, got that off my chest!


----------



## DaveM

Day 1 of a case of Covid-19, note the round blotches which apparently are typical:








Day 3 of the same patient, now on a ventilator, pneumonia now widespread in the lungs:


----------



## eljr

erki said:


> Closing down the economy is serious indeed, but does not tell anything about the seriousness of the virus - just the problems with healthcare. Serious is that need for hospitalisation grows very rapidly.


presumed and obvious in shutting down the economy is that the virus is bad

this does not speak directly to the problems that may exist in healthcare because this is so extraordinary (out of ordinary)


----------



## Flamme

I hear differetn defintions of Virus, from one that calls it the SARS #2 to one that calls it a sort of pneumonia, unrelated to flu...


----------



## eljr

Flamme said:


> I hear differetn defintions of Virus, from one that calls it the SARS #2 to one that calls it a sort of pneumonia, unrelated to flu...


pneumonia is a complication that arises


----------



## DaveM

Flamme said:


> I hear differetn defintions of Virus, from one that calls it the SARS #2 to one that calls it a sort of pneumonia, unrelated to flu...


Covid-19 is the disease which may or may not include the complication of pneumonia. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus.


----------



## starthrower

DaveM said:


> Covid-19 is the disease which may or may not include the complication of pneumonia. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus.


Correct! Explained in detail in the video I uploaded on the previous page. The doctor also points out why people with hypertension are more at risk.


----------



## Flamme

TBH if we put aside economical difficulties, which will certainly cause us major headaches, this has caused, I as a cyclist really like a backdrop of much less cars, crowds, noise, garbage and pollution on streets.


----------



## senza sordino

3518 people died of coronavirus yesterday, Saturday March 28th.










The average death toll from the seasonal flu is about 1500 deaths per day.

On average about 100 000 to 150 000 people die each day from old age, car accidents, famine, war, heart disease etc.

Yesterday I went downstairs in our apartment building to take out the garbage and recycling. A woman in front of me got a paper towel or napkin out of her handbag and use it to open the door. She held the door open for me. She then proceeded to adjust her face mask with her hands. I didn't see what she did with her paper towel but she didn't throw it away, she must have stuffed it into her pocket or handbag. This is not the way to do it.

The few times I go out, I use my clean left hand for my keys, my phone. I use my right hand to open and close doors. And never the twain shall meet. Until I wash my hands upon returning home. Not perfect, and certainly not a guarantee against contracting the disease, but this method has got to be better than hers.


----------



## Bigbang

starthrower said:


> Correct! Explained in detail in the video I uploaded on the previous page. The doctor also points out why people with hypertension are more at risk.


I am assuming you are referring to Dr. Duc Vuong. I did not watch the entire video. There are many "experts" jumping into the arena--I can post some myself. But CDC and those who recommend advice along this line are really the best sources for knowledge.

That said I recommend anyone who post videos and sources to check out the person. I did and it did not take me too long to know I am not even interested in his information. It is not about whether he is right but whether the doctor/doctors have a history/track record so I prefer to give my time to honest physicians who eyes are puffy and still in scrubbs maybe who are willing to give their time to make a video to scare us into doing what we need to do. Remember, the internet has lots of ways to find out about doctors and others who may be trying to advance their agenda.


----------



## Flamme

> Yesterday I went downstairs in our apartment building to take out the garbage and recycling. A woman in front of me got a paper towel or napkin out of her handbag and use it to open the door. She held the door open for me. She then proceeded to adjust her face mask with her hands. I didn't see what she did with her paper towel but she didn't throw it away, she must have stuffed it into her pocket or handbag. This is not the way to do it.
> 
> The few times I go out, I use my clean left hand for my keys, my phone. I use my right hand to open and close doors. And never the twain shall meet. Until I wash my hands upon returning home.


----------



## Bigbang

senza sordino said:


> 3518 people died of coronavirus yesterday, Saturday March 28th.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The average death toll from the seasonal flu is about 1500 deaths per day.
> 
> On average about 100 000 to 150 000 people die each day from old age, car accidents, famine, war, heart disease etc.
> 
> Yesterday I went downstairs in our apartment building to take out the garbage and recycling. A woman in front of me got a paper towel or napkin out of her handbag and use it to open the door. She held the door open for me. She then proceeded to adjust her face mask with her hands. I didn't see what she did with her paper towel but she didn't throw it away, she must have stuffed it into her pocket or handbag. This is not the way to do it.
> 
> The few times I go out, I use my clean left hand for my keys, my phone. I use my right hand to open and close doors. And never the twain shall meet. Until I wash my hands upon returning home. Not perfect, and certainly not a guarantee against contracting the disease, but this method has got to be better than hers.


The problem, again, is you have to be so totally conscious of your actions at all times. I cannot even do this as the unconscious mind is more of a driver than we know or realize. Saying she is wrong when she is making an effort and you are doing it right is really not helpful. The evidence is that "close" contact with "people" is the primary driver of the virus, not the surface of items. Now, if a person avoids close contact at all times and yet touches items with the virus (remember, no close contact here) then this person needs to avoid touching their face until getting to a place (like home) where they can wash the hands completely. So what the lady did was not wrong anymore than what you did but if you forget later and put your fingers in your mouth.......


----------



## Bigbang

BTW, I would suggest to the guys here especially that keeping fingernails trimmed as close to skin as possible and keep dirt from accumulating under the nails at all times. I had a dream on this very point and take it to mean what it implied to me, that cleaning hands helps but the virus and germs can survive under the nails and therefore one might still not be doing enough...so maybe we should be eating sandwiches with a fork.....


----------



## eljr

senza sordino said:


> 3518 people died of coronavirus yesterday, Saturday March 28th.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The average death toll from the seasonal flu is about 1500 deaths per day.
> 
> On average about 100 000 to 150 000 people die each day from old age, car accidents, famine, war, heart disease etc.
> 
> Yesterday I went downstairs in our apartment building to take out the garbage and recycling. A woman in front of me got a paper towel or napkin out of her handbag and use it to open the door. She held the door open for me. She then proceeded to adjust her face mask with her hands. I didn't see what she did with her paper towel but she didn't throw it away, she must have stuffed it into her pocket or handbag. This is not the way to do it.
> 
> The few times I go out, I use my clean left hand for my keys, my phone. I use my right hand to open and close doors. And never the twain shall meet. Until I wash my hands upon returning home. Not perfect, and certainly not a guarantee against contracting the disease, but this method has got to be better than hers.


maybe we should not be comparing this virus to the flu at all?


----------



## Open Book

senza sordino said:


> 3518 people died of coronavirus yesterday, Saturday March 28th.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The average death toll from the seasonal flu is about 1500 deaths per day.
> 
> On average about 100 000 to 150 000 people die each day from old age, car accidents, famine, war, heart disease etc.
> 
> Yesterday I went downstairs in our apartment building to take out the garbage and recycling. A woman in front of me got a paper towel or napkin out of her handbag and use it to open the door. She held the door open for me. She then proceeded to adjust her face mask with her hands. I didn't see what she did with her paper towel but she didn't throw it away, she must have stuffed it into her pocket or handbag. This is not the way to do it.
> 
> The few times I go out, I use my clean left hand for my keys, my phone. I use my right hand to open and close doors. And never the twain shall meet. Until I wash my hands upon returning home. Not perfect, and certainly not a guarantee against contracting the disease, but this method has got to be better than hers.


Your figures are for the entire world, an important thing to specify.

I'm grateful for automatic doors. I worry about doors, too, also mailboxes, supermarket carriages, anything people have to grab and multiple people have been there before me. I have my own methods of handling these things. I even leave certain deliveries for a couple of days before touching the plastic packages.

The government should have industries ramp up production of disinfectants to make up for the hoarding. Bad that you can't get bottles of alcohol, wipes, Lysol. Can make a lot of difference.

Surfaces are thought to be a means of transmission. How much, we don't know yet. Why take a chance?


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Open Book said:


> Your figures are for the entire world, an important thing to specify.
> 
> I'm grateful for automatic doors. I worry about doors, too, also mailboxes, supermarket carriages, anything people have to grab and multiple people have been there before me. I have my own methods of handling these things. I even leave certain deliveries for a couple of days before touching the plastic packages.
> 
> The government should have industries ramp up production of disinfectants to make up for the hoarding. Bad that you can't get bottles of alcohol, wipes, Lysol. Can make a lot of difference.
> 
> Surfaces are thought to be a means of transmission. How much, we don't know yet. Why take a chance?


Who will make these products if workers are at home?


----------



## mmsbls

Johnnie Burgess said:


> Who will make these products if workers are at home?


Well...

Guy & O'Neill in Fredonia, Wisconsin has employees working overtime and has added temporary workers.

Medline in Northfield, Illinois, which has a private supplier in Milwaukee, has significantly increased orders to keep a higher amount of inventory on hand.

Clorox has increased production of disinfecting products based on increased customer interest in its wipes.

Purell has experienced "several demand surges in the past during other outbreaks, and this is on the higher end of the spectrum but not unprecedented."

Gojo Industries has dramatically increased production since the beginning of the year.

NY state is using prison inmates to make free hand sanitizer for the public, and plans to produce 100,000 gallons a week.

Bulk Apothecary is working diligently to keep up with demand and are currently putting in a second and third shift

Lysol workers are working around the clock with consumers in mind.

I assume there are more, but clearly, the companies that make disinfectant products are working harder than ever to produce much more than usual.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

mmsbls said:


> Well...
> 
> Guy & O'Neill in Fredonia, Wisconsin has employees working overtime and has added temporary workers.
> 
> Medline in Northfield, Illinois, which has a private supplier in Milwaukee, has significantly increased orders to keep a higher amount of inventory on hand.
> 
> Clorox has increased production of disinfecting products based on increased customer interest in its wipes.
> 
> Purell has experienced "several demand surges in the past during other outbreaks, and this is on the higher end of the spectrum but not unprecedented."
> 
> Gojo Industries has dramatically increased production since the beginning of the year.
> 
> NY state is using prison inmates to make free hand sanitizer for the public, and plans to produce 100,000 gallons a week.
> 
> Bulk Apothecary is working diligently to keep up with demand and are currently putting in a second and third shift
> 
> Lysol workers are working around the clock with consumers in mind.
> 
> I assume there are more, but clearly, the companies that make disinfectant products are working harder than ever to produce much more than usual.


But if the entire US is forced to shelter in place like some are calling for who will be working?


----------



## philoctetes

Dr Vladimir Zelenko reporting on hydroxycholoriquine






https://forward.com/news/national/442285/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-trump-doctor/


----------



## KenOC

New York now has over 59 thousand cases, almost half of the US total.

*Cuomo threatens lawsuit over Rhode Island crackdown on virus-fleeing New Yorkers*

"New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is threatening to sue Rhode Island over its new coronavirus policy that calls for police to stop cars with New York license plates and has seen National Guard members go door-to-door to ask if anyone has arrived from the Empire State."


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

KenOC said:


> New York now has over 59 thousand cases, almost half of the US total.
> 
> *Cuomo threatens lawsuit over Rhode Island crackdown on virus-fleeing New Yorkers*
> 
> New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is threatening to sue Rhode Island over its new coronavirus policy that calls for police to stop cars with New York license plates and has seen National Guard members go door-to-door to ask if anyone has arrived from the Empire State.


The courts should throw out any lawsuit Cuoma seeks on this.


----------



## philoctetes

Lots of updated graphical info here for the US by states, cities, etc...

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/


----------



## senza sordino

> From the Guardian News:
> On 19 March, the Nasa administrator Jim Bridenstine announced that the agency's Michoud assembly facility and Stennis Space Center are in effect shutting down due to the rising number of cases in their local areas.
> 
> The result is that Nasa is temporarily suspending production and testing of the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion module. SLS is the rocket and Orion is the crew capsule that will take the astronauts to lunar orbit.
> 
> This challenging schedule, which was mandated by the White House, has now been made more difficult by the coronavirus outbreak.





> From CBC News
> 
> Killer whales have been spotted in Vancouver's harbour.





> From the Guardian
> 
> The nationwide shutdown caused by the coronavirus outbreak has led to big drops in air pollution across the UK's major cities, new data analysis shows.
> The data shows drops in tiny particle pollution of a third to a half in London, Birmingham, Bristol and Cardiff, falls of about quarter in Manchester, York and Belfast, with smaller declines in Glasgow and Newcastle. For nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution, the data also shows declines of a third to a half in London, Birmingham, Bristol and Cardiff, and drops of 10-20% in the other cities.


I went for a walk this morning along what is normally a very busy road. If I were to go for a walk in normal times, I wouldn't take that route. This morning I did because there is less traffic and it is more quiet.


----------



## Open Book

I've been shuttling back and forth from my mother's house to my own for the past few days. A 30-mile trip through the suburbs of New England. Suburbs here tend to have well spaced houses but lots of traffic on the main roads.

It was like riding through ghost towns. Most businesses shuttered. No traffic. The major highways sparse even at rush hour, when they are often bumper to bumper. People out walking dogs on a nice spring day. 12 teens playing soccer in a soccer field, which I wasn't happy to see -- that's not social distancing.

I feel guilty that I enjoyed these rides (for once). It was like world population had shrunk by 75%. I always wondered what that would feel like.


----------



## philoctetes

Open Book said:


> I've been shuttling back and forth from my mother's house to my own for the past few days. A 30-mile trip through the suburbs of New England. Suburbs here tend to have well spaced houses but lots of traffic on the main roads.
> 
> It was like riding through ghost towns. Most businesses shuttered. No traffic. The major highways sparse even at rush hour, when they are often bumper to bumper. People out walking dogs on a nice spring day. 12 teens playing soccer in a soccer field, which I wasn't happy to see -- that's not social distancing.
> 
> I feel guilty that I enjoyed these rides (for once). It was like world population had shrunk by 75%. I always wondered what that would feel like.


Travel outside your community is what you're not supposed to do... so your guilty feeling is justified...


----------



## Open Book

philoctetes said:


> Travel outside your community is what you're not supposed to do... so your guilty feeling is justified...


I had zero contact with anyone else. I stayed in my car. The house is empty. Thanks for your concern.


----------



## aleazk

For heavens' sake!!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163761/Chinese-markets-selling-bats.html

The correspondent who visited Dongguan said: 'The markets have gone back to operating in exactly the same way as they did before coronavirus.

'The only difference is that security guards try to stop anyone taking pictures which would never have happened before.'


----------



## philoctetes

Open Book said:


> I had zero contact with anyone else. I stayed in my car. The house is empty. Thanks for your concern.


Doesn't sound like these are "essential" trips at all, but you be you...


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> Correct! Explained in detail in the video I uploaded on the previous page. The doctor also points out why people with hypertension are more at risk.


sort of did or i did not understand... this covid-19 lowers your blood pressure too much?

Why is it so dangerous to people taking ACE Inhibitors rather than other blood pressure meds?


----------



## philoctetes

I live an a resort area where there are many BnB and weekend homes... which are supposed to be shut down now... vacation renters or owners of multiple homes, still going across county lines, have been cited as one of the things that are hardest to control... the one across the street from me is illegally occupied right now... I've had to block parking in my street to keep people from violating the park closure... So if y'all wonder why I seem tense, that would be part of it...

meanwhile I would love to be taking my trailer up the north coast or to the desert.... after all there would be nobody around me, and all that... however, there is something called the Golden Rule... old-fashioned but not dead yet... and I'd hate to be a hypocrite... every time I go through some empty town I would be unable to feel like a cheater... rather than judging how they are living... and there is always the chance that I would be prevented from going back home at some border stop...

when things get worse, cellphones and nav systems will be tracking down people who do this... but for now we're still in free-for-all mode and it's up to the individual to do the right thing..


----------



## KenOC

Regional strife in *Italy*:
----------------------------
"In the South, the situation is about to explode dramatically. The next 10 days here will be hell," Vincenzo de Luca, Campania's governor, said in a recent letter addressed to the central government. "There is the real possibility that there will be a tragedy in the South, on top of Lombardy's."

His letter requested additional ventilators for hospitals in the south, a region historically worse off economically compared to the country's northern industrial hub. Most equipment, including surgical masks, has been prioritized to address the crisis in Lombardy…

In a livid video address to defiant students who were reportedly planning graduation parties, de Luca said: "We'll send the police with flamethrowers."


----------



## mmsbls

Johnnie Burgess said:


> But if the entire US is forced to shelter in place like some are calling for who will be working?


If the _entire_ US is forced to shelter in place, only those who can work using the internet or phone lines will be working, and no one will make those products. Given that I've never heard anyone in places of authority suggest that, I don't see an issue.


----------



## elgar's ghost

aleazk said:


> For heavens' sake!!
> 
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163761/Chinese-markets-selling-bats.html
> 
> The correspondent who visited Dongguan said: 'The markets have gone back to operating in exactly the same way as they did before coronavirus.
> 
> 'The only difference is that security guards try to stop anyone taking pictures which would never have happened before.'


The Daily Flail is notorious for stirring the pot (so to speak) but I wouldn't be surprised about any of this at all. Assuming it's true then it's totally disgusting on all sorts of levels.


----------



## philoctetes

mmsbls said:


> If the _entire_ US is forced to shelter in place, only those who can work using the internet or phone lines will be working, and no one will make those products. Given that I've never heard anyone in places of authority suggest that, I don't see an issue.


If nobody is working to maintain the e-infrastructure, nobody will be working online either... who will deliver food etc... and you will have the usual elements of anarchy growing as fast as the virus...

But, I don't think it's safe to assume that nobody in authority is discussing this..... that's not how pol... nevermind... having a TS at one time in my life means nothing...


----------



## mmsbls

Johnnie Burgess said:


> The courts should throw out any lawsuit Cuoma seeks on this.


I understand, as does Gov. Cuomo, the intent of Gov. Raimondo's action, but I'm not sure the action is actually constitutional. Do you know what precedent (i.e. legal statute or case law) would allow it? In other words, what would the court site to throw out Cuomo's lawsuit?


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

philoctetes said:


> If nobody is working to maintain the e-infrastructure, nobody will be working online either... who will deliver food etc... and you will have the usual elements of anarchy growing as fast as the virus...
> 
> But, I don't think it's safe to assume that nobody in authority is discussing this..... that's not how pol... nevermind...


And with more people working from home hackers have increased their attacks on online business. By having workers working at home instead off call centers has made some networks more vulnerable.


----------



## philoctetes

Just wait until you need a plumber.............


----------



## mmsbls

philoctetes said:


> If nobody is working to maintain the e-infrastructure, nobody will be working online either... who will deliver food etc... and you will have the usual elements of anarchy growing as fast as the virus...


Of course.



philoctetes said:


> But, I don't think it's safe to assume that nobody in authority is discussing this..... that's not how pol... nevermind... having a TS at one time in my life means nothing...


I have no idea what people in power are discussing. I have not heard anyone actually call for a complete shelter in place. Is TS a top secret (clearance)? If so, I agree it wouldn't mean much in this case.


----------



## philoctetes

mmsbls said:


> I understand, as does Gov. Cuomo, the intent of Gov. Raimondo's action, but I'm not sure the action is actually constitutional. Do you know what precedent (i.e. legal statute or case law) would allow it? In other words, what would the court site to throw out Cuomo's lawsuit?


Do not governors have power to declare emergency measures? In any case, this has been an interesting test of federalism at at time when it's been heavily discredited by... nevermind...


----------



## philoctetes

mmsbls said:


> Of course.
> 
> I have no idea what people in power are discussing. I have not heard anyone actually call for a complete shelter in place. Is TS a top secret (clearance)? If so, I agree it wouldn't mean much in this case.


If you have no idea what people in authority are discussing... nevermind...

And I got a warning for being "dismissive" how's that for ya...


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

mmsbls said:


> I understand, as does Gov. Cuomo, the intent of Gov. Raimondo's action, but I'm not sure the action is actually constitutional. Do you know what precedent (i.e. legal statute or case law) would allow it? In other words, what would the court site to throw out Cuomo's lawsuit?


Put it on the docket for 04/01/3020 tell that is when the court will hear it. Besides why Cuoma has all ready told them to shelter in place.


----------



## KenOC

mmsbls said:


> I understand, as does Gov. Cuomo, the intent of Gov. Raimondo's action, but I'm not sure the action is actually constitutional. Do you know what precedent (i.e. legal statute or case law) would allow it? In other words, what would the court site to throw out Cuomo's lawsuit?


Well, in CA if you drive in you will be stopped at an agricultural checkpoint and asked to declare any fruit or veggies. If you admit to having such and refuse to turn it over, you will be barred from entering the state. That could be a precedent for one state actually closing its borders to another. Maybe.


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> when things get worse, cellphones and nav systems will be tracking down people who do this... but for now we're still in free-for-all mode and it's up to the individual to do the right thing..


Many could care less what the right thing is. Just look at the checkout lines in a supermarket.


----------



## Bigbang

Open Book said:


> I had zero contact with anyone else. I stayed in my car. The house is empty. Thanks for your concern.


The more a person reads then it becomes clear that the virus is transmitted by practices people are not aware of being infected (newly) and people not being cautious while doing daily activities. Thanks for doing your part.


----------



## philoctetes

eljr said:


> Many could care less what the right thing is. Just look at the checkout lines in a supermarket.


I would but I have to wait another week... I was once one of those in the city who stopped at a store every night after work, to get fresh food, long ago, now I'm a semi-rural Costco type who buys two weeks worth of food at once... an evil "big box" shopper...

But online I read accounts from people who go to the store "to get some bananas" or some little thing and then complain about the behavior of other shoppers... well, just another reason I'm happy to shop my way... and Costco, which is really a publicly-owned food co-op. has done a great job keeping my local store accessible and clean...


----------



## aleazk

elgars ghost said:


> The Daily Flail is notorious for stirring the pot (so to speak) but I wouldn't be surprised about any of this at all. Assuming it's true then it's totally disgusting on all sorts of levels.


Yes, I know about the DM's reputation. But, on the other hand, you don't need too much journalism to just send someone to see if those markets are still there and operating as usual. And, considering the chinese government's own reputation, it's indeed not surprising at all. It's exactly the same thing that happened after 2003 sars. I really really hope trump (not at all my guy) does something in terms of economic sanctions and arancels. The world's economy is already broken by this pandemic anyway!


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

aleazk said:


> Yes, I know about the DM's reputation. But, on the other hand, you don't need too much journalism to just send someone to see if those markets are still there and operating as usual. And, considering the chinese government's own reputation, it's indeed not surprising at all. It's exactly the same thing that happened after 2003 sars. I really really hope trump (not at all my guy) does something in terms of economic sanctions and arancels. The world's economy is already broken by this pandemic anyway!


It is time for people to say we will not buy any goods made in China till they stop this. Any company that has factories in China should be boycotted.


----------



## mmsbls

KenOC said:


> Well, in CA if you drive in you will be stopped at an agricultural checkpoint and asked to declare any fruit or veggies. If you admit to having such and refuse to turn it over, you will be barred from entering the state. That could be a precedent for one state actually closing its borders to another. Maybe.


Thank you. I'm always a bit uncertain about details of law and how courts rule, but I've always thought explicit examples help me understand the best. I still wonder if having a piece of fruit that could harbor diseases for California fruit would be considered the same as being a human that could harbor diseases. It certainly does sound similar so perhaps you are correct.



philoctetes said:


> Do not governors have power to declare emergency measures? In any case, this has been an interesting test of federalism at at time when it's been heavily discredited by... nevermind...


I suppose governors do have the power to declare emergency measures. I'm not sure exactly how far those measures can go.


----------



## aleazk

Johnnie Burgess said:


> It is time for people to say we will not buy any goods made in China till they stop this. Any company that has factories in China should be boycotted.


Unfortunately, that's quite unlikely to happen. I guess the West's lack of tools for imposing pressure to China (due to economic dependency) is the price that people were not paying when buying cheap made in china technology and other goods... i'm not saying sending production abroad is bad per se, but, evidently, in this case it produced a loss of equilibrium and gave too much power to an unscrupulous communist dictatorship.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

aleazk said:


> Unfortunately, that's quite unlikely to happen. I guess the West's lack of tools for imposing pressure to China (due to economic dependency) is the price that people were not paying when buying cheap made in china technology and other goods... i'm not saying sending production abroad is bad per se, but, evidently, in this case it produced a loss of equilibrium and gave too much power to an unscrupulous communist dictatorship.


If each individual person would stop buying things made in China things can change. China can not force you to buy their stuff.


----------



## philoctetes

Johnnie Burgess said:


> If each individual person would stop buying things made in China things can change. China can force you to buy their stuff.


This could happen at the industrial level but some changes in management will be required... 25 years of outsourcing is hard to reverse but maybe not impossible..


----------



## Open Book

Almost everything is made in China but I guess we could seek out the few alternatives.


----------



## Triplets

KenOC said:


> New York now has over 59 thousand cases, almost half of the US total.
> 
> *Cuomo threatens lawsuit over Rhode Island crackdown on virus-fleeing New Yorkers*
> 
> "New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is threatening to sue Rhode Island over its new coronavirus policy that calls for police to stop cars with New York license plates and has seen National Guard members go door-to-door to ask if anyone has arrived from the Empire State."


My wife is from Rhode Island and her family verifies that this is happening. There are many small islands off the R.I. Coast that wealthy New Yorkers have second homes on and they are clogging the local stores right now.


----------



## Room2201974

Johnnie Burgess said:


> It is time for people to say we will not buy any goods made in China till they stop this. Any company that has factories in China should be boycotted.


Hellesbelles, you just put every Dollar Tree and Dollar General out of business and Wal-Mart will be hurting something awful.

Next, we'll boycott _China Grove_ on our AM transistor radios!


----------



## mmsbls

aleazk said:


> For heavens' sake!!
> 
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163761/Chinese-markets-selling-bats.html
> 
> The correspondent who visited Dongguan said: 'The markets have gone back to operating in exactly the same way as they did before coronavirus.
> 
> 'The only difference is that security guards try to stop anyone taking pictures which would never have happened before.'


I don't know where all the various recent viruses originated from. I suppose the problem is that people make a living from these type of activities. In some sense it's similar to people cutting down the rainforest in order to clear land for economic activity. Those actions hurt the entire earth but help those performing them.

I would think in this case the world's nations would have a powerful argument against China to take actions to fix the problem, but I wonder how easy that would be. All that's required is the sale of a few bats or other animals in a small market away from public scrutiny. If one closes down, another could open up in a nearby town. Maybe the government has the ability to ensure its citizens will not engage in those markets, but it doesn't appear so easy to me.


----------



## philoctetes

Warning: Political AND musical content - read and weep

Kennedy Center halts National Symphony Orchestra paychecks after getting $25M in coronavirus relief

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/kennedy-center-halts-national-symphony-orchestra-paychecks-after-getting-25m-in-coronavirus-relief


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

philoctetes said:


> Warning: Political AND musical content - read and weep
> 
> Kennedy Center halts National Symphony Orchestra paychecks after getting $25M in coronavirus relief
> 
> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/kennedy-center-halts-national-symphony-orchestra-paychecks-after-getting-25m-in-coronavirus-relief


Whoever made that decision should be fired. The union has all ready filed a grievance, in their last contact it stated the were to be given 6 weeks notice. Hope the arbitrator holds the boss feet to the fire.


----------



## science

Johnnie Burgess said:


> It is time for people to say we will not buy any goods made in China till they stop this. Any company that has factories in China should be boycotted.


I made a thread about this post in a group because I think this is an interesting, important topic, but I don't want to derail this thread or make it political!


----------



## Luchesi

FDA approved a portable device that identifies the virus in five minutes

https://www.techexplorist.com/fda-a...tm_source=BNA&utm_medium=BNA&utm_campaign=BNA


----------



## philoctetes

Johnnie Burgess said:


> Whoever made that decision should be fired. The union has all ready filed a grievance, in their last contact it stated the were to be given 6 weeks notice. Hope the arbitrator holds the boss feet to the fire.


Even sadder, this is the kind of stuff that delayed relief negotiations for days last week, stirring up more bipartisan hostility... but nevemind that's too politcal...


----------



## philoctetes

Room2201974 said:


> Hellesbelles, you just put every Dollar Tree and Dollar General out of business and Wal-Mart will be hurting something awful.
> 
> Next, we'll boycott _China Grove_ on our AM transistor radios!


Gonna start a false conspiracy theory about how China Lake got its name...


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

philoctetes said:


> Even sadder, this is the kind of stuff that delayed relief negotiations for days last week, stirring up more bipartisan hostility... but nevemind that's too politcal...


Even more of reason to fire that boss. Hours after President Trump signed bill giving the center 25 million, scumbag boss does this.


----------



## philoctetes

Johnnie Burgess said:


> Even more of reason to fire that boss. Hours after President Trump signed bill giving the center 25 million, scumbag boss does this.


This is why over-reaction is not without cost, relief policy is too political... too many shakedown scammers want a piece of the action...

$25M is just a drop in the relief bucket, but it's also a lot of ventilators, or paychecks, whatever...


----------



## philoctetes

So you think you're gonna keep your job from home... you might not be able to stream a movie though...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-york-internet-speeds-have-plunged-24-locked-down-americans-clog-networks


----------



## KenOC

mmsbls said:


> I don't know where all the various recent viruses originated from. I suppose the problem is that people make a living from these type of activities. In some sense it's similar to people cutting down the rainforest in order to clear land for economic activity. Those actions hurt the entire earth but help those performing them.
> 
> I would think in this case the world's nations would have a powerful argument against China to take actions to fix the problem, but I wonder how easy that would be. All that's required is the sale of a few bats or other animals in a small market away from public scrutiny. If one closes down, another could open up in a nearby town. Maybe the government has the ability to ensure its citizens will not engage in those markets, but it doesn't appear so easy to me.


Some time back I posted a report that provincial authorities were encouraging the farming of "wild" and exotic animals as a way for peasants to make a lot of money. I suppose that these wet markets were where they established stalls to sell their "crops."

And regardless of rulings from Beijing, the Chinese have an old and perhaps still-popular saying: "The mountains are tall and the emperor is far away."


----------



## starthrower

What is Covid-19 teaching us about ourselves, societal choices and moving ahead with a hundred forks in the road? How much of life are we willing to give up to stay safe? Charles Einstein explores alternatives to the paradise of perfect control, and a hell of a lot more in this sprawling and provocative essay. https://charleseisenstein.org/essays/the-coronation/


----------



## KenOC

Humana and Cigna, both major for-profit health care insurers, have announced that they will pay for coronavirus treatment at no cost for their members, in or out of network, waiving all copays and deductibles.


----------



## philoctetes

Good news, unless you wanted to see this suppressed so ______ would be wrong...

FDA issues emergency authorization of anti-malaria drug for coronavirus care

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/fda-emergency-authorization-anti-malaria-drug-155095

Laura Ingraham on Fox News has been covering the chloroquine story for 2 weeks, and I've been posting about it for over a week, while govs in MI, WA, and NV outlawed it and... nevermind...


----------



## Guest

Is China entirely unique in using wild animals as a food source? People in the Americas also use game animals, ranging from deer to rabbits, for food, although not on the same scale.


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Good news, unless you wanted to see this suppressed so ______ would be wrong...
> 
> FDA issues emergency authorization of anti-malaria drug for coronavirus care
> 
> https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/fda-emergency-authorization-anti-malaria-drug-155095
> 
> Laura Ingraham on Fox News has been covering the chloroquine story for 2 weeks, and I've been posting about it for over a week, while govs in MI, WA, and NV outlawed it and... nevermind...


And your point is?


----------



## KenOC

Trouble brewing? On Friday, 442 uniformed and 70 civilian members of the New York Police Department had tested positive for the coronavirus. Another 4,111, just over 11% of the workforce, called in sick, possibly fearing infection.

If big-city police departments are shut down or even significantly weakened, security for the rest of us may suffer. We could see marauding raids and home invasions pick up, especially if shortages of various goods continue, with police response delayed or maybe even non-existent.

In that connection, we in California may regret our governor's determination that gun stores are "non-essential," forcing all of them to close their doors. A bit of firepower can be very reassuring. And for some of us, we should note that our Bernie Sanders signs advertise us as unarmed and helpless. I suggest taking those down and posting "Proud Member of the NRA" signs instead. :lol: (actually it's no joke, at least potentially...)

Added: In *New Jersey*, more than 700 police officers have tested positive.


----------



## philoctetes

DaveM said:


> And your point is?


Sorry but the moderators won't allow me to answer that...

I mean, if y'all gonna report me, I ain't gonna take the bait. If y'all wanna play fair, then play fair

PS: see post below


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> Trouble brewing? On Friday, 442 uniformed and 70 civilian members of the New York Police Department had tested positive for the coronavirus. Another 4,111, just over 11% of the workforce, called in sick, possibly fearing infection.
> 
> If big-city police departments are shut down or even significantly weakened, security for the rest of us may suffer. We could see marauding raids and home invasions pick up, especially if shortages of various goods continue, with police response delayed or maybe even non-existent.
> 
> In that connection, we in California may regret our governor's determination that gun stores are "non-essential," forcing all of them to close their doors. A bit of firepower can be very reassuring. And for some of us, we should note that our Bernie Sanders signs advertise us as unarmed and helpless. I suggest taking those down and posting "Proud Member of the NRA" signs instead. :lol: (actually it's no joke, at least potentially...)
> 
> Added: In *New Jersey*, more than 700 police officers have tested positive.


It's no joke at all...except that people who once rejected guns now embrace them ha...


----------



## philoctetes

DaveM said:


> And your point is?


Maybe this will make a point

Asia Times: Why France is hiding a cheap and tested virus cure - The French government is arguably helping Big Pharma profit from the Covid-19 pandemic

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-france-is-hiding-a-cheap-and-tested-virus-cure/

I guess I'm just lucky to find this stuff


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Sorry but the moderators won't allow me to answer that...
> 
> I mean, if y'all gonna report me, I ain't gonna take the bait. If y'all wanna play fair, then play fair


I've never reported anybody on this forum. Generally, I don't believe in it except in the most extreme circumstances. Your post sounded like you believe that what you included in the post means that the success of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment is a done deal. I would love to see it turn out to be, but we're still waiting to see the results of some of the studies going on beyond the very limited ones that were reported originally.


----------



## philoctetes

DaveM said:


> I've never reported anybody on this forum. Your post sounded like you believe that what you included in the post means that the success of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment is a done deal. I would love to see it turn out to be, but we're still waiting to see the results of some of the studies going on beyond the very limited ones that were reported originally.


Dave, I put a lot of info up here... you stalk and snipe at me week after week... and it's because of that kind of stuff that I sometimes have a bad day like yesterday... I don't need your excuses

And for your benefit I added more info above... but don't thank me one bit


----------



## philoctetes

Today at the Brentwood Farmer's Market (LA)









Dreaming to Doomsday...


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> Today at the Brentwood Farmer's Market (LA)
> 
> View attachment 132610
> 
> 
> Dreaming to Doomsday...


*Katherine Schwarzenegger Begs L.A. Mayor Garcetti to Shut Down Packed Farmer's Market
*
Yes, it's packed. Seems stupid.

"The LAPD tells us they didn't get any calls complaining about the market, but they say they're on their way out to the market now. They told us their job is to educate and keep people apart, not to ticket.

"There seems to be a disconnect because there is a law on the books that says it's a misdemeanor punishable by fine or imprisonment to violate the social distancing rules."


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Dave, I put a lot of info up here... you stalk and snipe at me week after week... and it's because of that kind of stuff that I sometimes have a bad day like yesterday... I don't need your excuses
> 
> And for your benefit I added more info above... but don't thank me one bit


When one puts up stuff that is provocational, one shouldn't be surprised when it gets a response whether from someone like me or whoever took more of an issue with it than I did. I made no excuses above. You posted something about hydroxychloroquine which is something I'm interested in, but it was not clear at all -at least to me- what conclusions you were drawing from your link. I was simply asking for clarification.

Let's leave it there. I don't want this thread shut down and I'm not looking to get you into any trouble.


----------



## erki

philoctetes said:


> This could happen at the industrial level but some changes in management will be required... 25 years of outsourcing is hard to reverse but maybe not impossible..


Crisis gives a good opportunity to do this. The system is broken already. You just do not fall back to the same track as soon as possible.


----------



## Jacck

How to Significantly Slow Coronavirus? (featuring Minister of Health of the Czech Rep.)





if you look at all those countries where the virus spread was slowed significantly, then all of them started wearing face masks. Of course we also had a shortage, but many people made home made masks.


----------



## KenOC

Headline: *As coronavirus ravages his native New York, media mogul David Geffen observes a sunset from his $400 million superyacht: 'I'm hoping everybody is staying safe'*

"If ever there were doubts about how the superaffluent are faring amid a pandemic for the ages, media mogul David Geffen wants to make it abundantly clear that, for his part, he's doing just fine - and he wishes us all the best.

"Geffen, whose net worth is estimated at $7.5 billion, according to Forbes, tweeted a number of images of his resplendent $400 million superyacht, Rising Sun, apparently adrift off the coast of the Grenadines, a chain of small Caribbean islands in the lesser Antilles, about 2,085 miles south of New York, which has emerged as the epicenter of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak."


----------



## Jacck

you should start building guillotines. The nobility has become as decadent as the French one in 1789.


----------



## Flamme

I dont live in US, but this is crazy, if true, a ticking viral bomb


----------



## Jacck

Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
some evidence that the virus is spreading through aerosols


----------



## Flamme

KenOC said:


> Regional strife in *Italy*:
> ----------------------------
> "In the South, the situation is about to explode dramatically. The next 10 days here will be hell," Vincenzo de Luca, Campania's governor, said in a recent letter addressed to the central government. "There is the real possibility that there will be a tragedy in the South, on top of Lombardy's."
> 
> His letter requested additional ventilators for hospitals in the south, a region historically worse off economically compared to the country's northern industrial hub. Most equipment, including surgical masks, has been prioritized to address the crisis in Lombardy…
> 
> In a livid video address to defiant students who were reportedly planning graduation parties, de Luca said: "We'll send the police with flamethrowers."


The spread of disease in italy, provinces wise is veeery odd...It seems lombardy, which is in the north, was struck the hardest and not south italy which is generally much poor and less equipped in terms of hospital conditions...Whoile global contagion map is veeery strange however u look at it. Not logical at all.


----------



## Room2201974

There are new success criteria by which we may measure objectively how we are doing in battling the virus in the States - ratings higher than The Bachelor, and a death count of 100,000+ is a "very good job.":trp::clap:


----------



## aleazk

Baron Scarpia said:


> Is China entirely unique in using wild animals as a food source? People in the Americas also use game animals, ranging from deer to rabbits, for food, although not on the same scale.


Of course not, there's also some in Africa. But, really, how many more pandemics coming from China, this is at least the third one since the year 2000 and relaled to mishandling of wild animals, do we need for them to stop it? As far as I know, you don't see masses of Mozambique tourists in the streets of Rome...


----------



## Flamme

It is crazy they still run the so called ''wet markets''. I trully respect china and its philosophies but some thing are str8 up barbaric like using ALL kinds of animals in traditional medicine, ordering killing of thousands elephants and sharks the world ovwr.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Can't help but wonder how outraged the Chinese authorities would have been had the virus been imported into there from somewhere else. Now that things are more stable in Wuhan (assuming they are) they seem to think it's no longer their problem.


----------



## aleazk

Flamme said:


> It is crazy they still run the so called ''wet markets''. I trully respect china and its philosophies but some thing are str8 up barbaric like using ALL kinds of animals in traditional medicine, ordering killing of thousands elephants and sharks the world ovwr.


Indeed. Besides, it's only a very few chinese people that actually consume those things (or so I read...) To me the problem is, and always has been, the corrupt chinese authorities.


----------



## aleazk

elgars ghost said:


> Can't help but wonder how outraged the Chinese authorities would have been had the virus been imported into there from somewhere else. Now that things are more stable in Wuhan (assuming they are) they seem to think it's no longer their problem.


They are now propagating all kinds of conspiracy theories on the local social media about the virus being some sort of "Western weapon" or that it originated in Italy. It's an insult to the intelligence of all the people that have been affected by this worldwide.


----------



## starthrower

KenOC said:


> Headline: *As coronavirus ravages his native New York, media mogul David Geffen observes a sunset from his $400 million superyacht: 'I'm hoping everybody is staying safe'*
> 
> "If ever there were doubts about how the superaffluent are faring amid a pandemic for the ages, media mogul David Geffen wants to make it abundantly clear that, for his part, he's doing just fine - and he wishes us all the best.
> 
> "Geffen, whose net worth is estimated at $7.5 billion, according to Forbes, tweeted a number of images of his resplendent $400 million superyacht, Rising Sun, apparently adrift off the coast of the Grenadines, a chain of small Caribbean islands in the lesser Antilles, about 2,085 miles south of New York, which has emerged as the epicenter of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak."


He'll be the richest guy in the graveyard along with Charles Koch and and a handful of others. Thankfully we have a lot great music from the artists he ripped off to amass that fortune.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> I dont live in US, but this is crazy, if true, a ticking viral bomb


This is absolutely shocking and disturbing. Surely it's about time to allow a few million more Mexicans into the USA. Plenty for everybody, it seems.


----------



## starthrower

Christabel said:


> This is absolutely shocking and disturbing. Surely it's about time to allow a few million more Mexicans into the USA. Plenty for everybody, it seems.


Or detain them in concentration camps? Take your pick. "Absolutely shocking"? Really? Every city in this country has ghettos and homeless and it's been this way for decades. Probably nobody read the Charles Einstein piece I uploaded but he asks the very important question why we are now radically altering our way of life to declare war on Covid-19, but we've done nothing to eradicate homelessness, millions of starving children, climate change, or make sure everyone has affordable heathcare (USA) etc? Is it because the ruling classes are not immune to the new enemy? They can turn a blind eye to all the other stuff.


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected
> https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
> some evidence that the virus is spreading through aerosols


very interesting.... and scary

I already assumed it spread through aerosols.... it only makes sense.


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> Laura Ingraham on Fox News ..


enough said

no one is gonna take this kind of source seriously if they are educated


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> How much of life are we willing to give up to stay safe?


I can answer this without clicking on the link.


----------



## Flamme

starthrower said:


> Or detain them in concentration camps? Take your pick. "Absolutely shocking"? Really? Every city in this country has ghettos and homeless and it's been this way for decades. Probably nobody read the Charles Einstein piece I uploaded but he asks the very important question why we are now radically altering our way of life to declare war on Covid-19, but we've done nothing to eradicate homelessness, millions of starving children, climate change, or make sure everyone has affordable heathcare (USA) etc? Is it because the ruling classes are not immune to the new enemy? They can turn a blind eye to all the other stuff.


From what I gathered about Homeless in developed countries most of them CHOSE that life and even when given the chance to radically CHANGE it, they refuse it. I think its a more pschological question than a social 1.


----------



## philoctetes

eljr said:


> enough said
> 
> no one is gonna take this kind of source seriously if they are educated


yay no cure for you, more for us, you smart ones die, we stupid ones don't yaaaayy


----------



## erki

Flamme said:


> From what I gathered about Homeless in developed countries most of them CHOSE that life and even when given the chance to radically CHANGE it, they refuse it. I think its a more pschological question than a social 1.


I think the ones who chose that life are victims of society in a way as well(they do not want to participate). There are others that have been made homeless by the creed of the society(banks mostly). The rest of the post of starthrower is spot on.


----------



## Flamme

So many of them, as seen in the video I posted are incurable junkies and people with severe mental problems, how u can cure such people, who dont want to be registered in any kind of state system, but chose to live on margins and ''not belong'', nor trying to better themselves. It is strange how people who literally fall apart and dont care of themselves, can live like that for a very long time and not succumbing to many illnesses they have.


----------



## starthrower

Flamme said:


> From what I gathered about Homeless in developed countries most of them CHOSE that life and even when given the chance to radically CHANGE it, they refuse it. I think its a more pschological question than a social 1.


I don't think it's that cut and dried. I've read enough articles about gentrification, city demolition projects, the closing of mental hopitals, rent control for wealthy residents, etc. I don't know if I could believe that 500,000 Americans truly enjoy living on the streets. How many people ended up on the streets during the housing crisis of 2008-2009 when many were foreclosed on illegally? It's been said that Obama's legacy was destroying the wealth of the black middle class. And after reading up on it I have to agree it's the truth. Sure, people make bad decisions that perpetuate poverty, but with a half million people on the streets it's time to address the problem seriously.


----------



## pianozach

So much news.



Triplets said:


> My wife is from Rhode Island and her family verifies that this is happening. There are many small islands off the R.I. Coast that wealthy New Yorkers have second homes on and they are clogging the local stores right now.


Back in the day of plagues, be it one of the Bubonic recurrences, or the Spanish Flu, the royalty would leave the denser urban areas and move to their "summer" estates in the country.

I think it was a week ago I saw the headline that Prince Charles and wife Camilla were moving to THEIR country estate. A couple of days later a new headline announced that he have tested positive for COVID-19.

Royalty (rich folks) have the means to decrease their chances of infection by retreating to "the country", or in the case of Geffen, to his gazillion dollar yacht (floating mansion).



philoctetes said:


> Good news, unless you wanted to see this suppressed so ______ would be wrong...
> 
> FDA issues emergency authorization of anti-malaria drug for coronavirus care
> 
> https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/fda-emergency-authorization-anti-malaria-drug-155095
> 
> Laura Ingraham on Fox News has been covering the chloroquine story for 2 weeks, and I've been posting about it for over a week, while govs in MI, WA, and NV outlawed it and... nevermind...


Someone already died (and his wife is in critical condition) from self-administering.



KenOC said:


> Headline: *As coronavirus ravages his native New York, media mogul David Geffen observes a sunset from his $400 million superyacht: 'I'm hoping everybody is staying safe'*
> 
> "If ever there were doubts about how the superaffluent are faring amid a pandemic for the ages, media mogul David Geffen wants to make it abundantly clear that, for his part, he's doing just fine - and he wishes us all the best.
> 
> "Geffen, whose net worth is estimated at $7.5 billion, according to Forbes, tweeted a number of images of his resplendent $400 million superyacht, Rising Sun, apparently adrift off the coast of the Grenadines, a chain of small Caribbean islands in the lesser Antilles, about 2,085 miles south of New York, which has emerged as the epicenter of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak."





Flamme said:


> I dont live in US, but this is crazy, if true, a ticking viral bomb


So, NOW we have a couple trillion dollars to throw at a pandemic.

Imagine if we'd thrown that kind of cash at our homeless problem.



Jacck said:


> Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected
> https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
> some evidence that the virus is spreading through aerosols


This story hits closest to home for me . . . just a couple of states away, and I spend my days accompanying school choirs.


----------



## philoctetes

starthrower said:


> I don't think it's that cut and dried. I've read enough articles about gentrification, city demolition projects, the closing of mental hopitals, rent control for wealthy residents, etc. I don't know if I could believe that 500,000 Americans truly enjoy living on the streets. How many people ended up on the streets during the housing crisis of 2008-2009 when many were foreclosed on illegally? It's been said that Obama's legacy was destroying the wealth of the black middles class. And after reading up on it I have to agree it's the truth. Sure, people make bad decisions that perpetuate poverty, but with a half million people on the streets it's time to address the problem seriously.


Maybe I say this too much, but... the Federal Reserve aka The Fed plays a big role in spreading the wealth gap with each boom and bust cycle... these cycles take out members of all wealth classes, either destroying their wealth partially or completely. But most of the banks, big corporations, and their owners survive, and essential businesses like GM or Boeing get bailed out... and then they still gouge on wages benefits prices etc... and whatever the ordinary person gains in the boom gets more than negated in the bust...

There is an interesting counter-theory to the usual thinking about minimum wage jobs... that the welfare *option* puts downward pressure on wage levels... so to the extent that people choose to be "subsidized", often resulting in homelessness, it's the government payout that baselines wages for companies like Wal-Mart which hire at the baseline threshold where employees make these choices between income sources... many of those people learn to work the system, cut corners etc... and get through life without working. I did it myself for a couple years in the 70s when US unemployment was in double digits... but back then it was enough to afford a small apartment, and that's not true anymore... in CA the baseline is not, as some like to say, a "living income", CA is just too expensive... but the climate is friendly to the homeless, so we have an explosion of them now...

I honestly believe that the homeless crisis in SF is the aftermath of the dot-com bust and the mortgage bust combined, along with a real estate market that has gone completely out of reach for even many in the middle class...

But that kind of theory is too "provocational" here as someone said about me recently... so nuff about that...


----------



## philoctetes

"Someone already died (and his wife is in critical condition) from self-administering. "

The details are important: a man in Arizona drank lethal amounts of fish tank cleaner at his own home.. his wife survived... nobody, not I or anybody I know of, gave them this advice... but saying it like ^^^ is clearly disinformative and I don't have to wonder why...

'They ingested fish tank cleaner, not medication': Media criticized for linking Trump to death of Arizona man

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/they-ingested-fish-tank-cleaner-not-medication-media-criticized-for-linking-trump-to-death-of-arizona-man

but yeah, Fox stupid.. keep workin me


----------



## science

philoctetes said:


> washington examiner


I've seen you cite this a couple times now so I want to encourage people here to consider the nature of this source.


----------



## philoctetes

science said:


> I've seen you cite this a couple times now so I want to encourage people here to consider the nature of this source.


OK I'll do yet MORE of your work for you, ingrate...

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/arizona-man-chloroquine-coronavirus-dead_n_5e7994f4c5b62f90bc506029

You probably won't like the HP either... the sources you like don't retract their false reporting and they are usually blocked by paywalls... but you need to attack the story and not the source to establish any credibility for your objections...

Anyway, your objections to the source don't erase the facts in this case... now do your own research... post information that adds to the thread instead of detracting from it...

I've been attacked for weeks here now and when I defend my posts you all report me... deal with it like I do and have some courage... what is "provocational" to you all is just a big mental block in your minds... projecting your fears of the wrong people being right... not my problem...


----------



## science

starthrower said:


> I don't think it's that cut and dried. I've read enough articles about gentrification, city demolition projects, the closing of mental hopitals, rent control for wealthy residents, etc. I don't know if I could believe that 500,000 Americans truly enjoy living on the streets. How many people ended up on the streets during the housing crisis of 2008-2009 when many were foreclosed on illegally? It's been said that Obama's legacy was destroying the wealth of the black middle class. And after reading up on it I have to agree it's the truth. Sure, people make bad decisions that perpetuate poverty, but with a half million people on the streets it's time to address the problem seriously.


Things have changed in the past 20 years fo course, but from 1995 to 2002 I did a fair bit of work with homeless people. I met hundreds of them, and got to know a few of them really well. The ones I worked with weren't a representative sample -- I did not meet many of the people who stay in homeless shelters or eat at soup kitchens, for example. The ones I knew were literally living on the street.

My personal estimation is that at that time 2/3 of the people I worked with were homeless due to drug addiction (mostly alcohol, some crack, and a few heroin) and 1/3 to some form of mental illness. It seems like the heroin/opioid percentage is much higher today than it was then, and there are some drugs like meth that we basically didn't have to deal with back then that seem to have become a lot more common.

In the entire time that I worked with homeless people, I only ever met 1 guy who really _chose_ that life. He was an interesting character. I think he'd been a normal blue-collar worker most of his life but his life fell apart (wife left him, etc.) and he just decided he'd rather live under a bridge than put up with all the bureaucratic nonsense of modern life. He got a bit of social security money so he always had coffee and cigarettes. He was very popular within the homeless community because people enjoyed talking to him -- homeless people are often very lonely. I think he was a net positive influence on the world; he didn't ask people for anything and he was a good listener.

But that guy's obviously one in a million. I would say nobody chooses homelessness, but okay, something like one in a million do.


----------



## science

philoctetes said:


> OK I'll do yet MORE of your work for you, ingrate...
> 
> https://www.huffpost.com/entry/arizona-man-chloroquine-coronavirus-dead_n_5e7994f4c5b62f90bc506029
> 
> You probably won't like the HP either... the sources you like don't retract their false reporting and they are usually blocked by paywalls... but you need to attack the story and not the source to establish any credibility for your objections...
> 
> Anyway, your objections to the source don't erase the facts in this case... now do your own research... post information that adds to the thread instead of detracting from it...
> 
> I've been attacked for weeks here now and when I defend my posts you all report me... deal with it like I do and have some courage


I wasn't disagreeing with the story. I just thought, if you're going to keep citing the Washington Examiner, people should be aware of the nature of that source.

You're right, though, I don't care much for Huff Po either. Better than Washington Examiner, to be sure.


----------



## philoctetes

meanwhile, y'all got excited about the Daily Mail thing from China and I saw no evidence of when those photos were taken... that report may be factual but it is not without suspicion


----------



## philoctetes

science said:


> I wasn't disagreeing with the story. I just thought, if you're going to keep citing the Washington Examiner, people should be aware of the nature of that source.
> 
> You're right, though, I don't care much for Huff Po either. Better than Washington Examiner, to be sure.


your preferences aren't really important to anybody who seeks truth


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> yay no cure for you, more for us, you smart ones die, we stupid ones don't yaaaayy


you are hyping here a totally unproven medicament
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-research-by-hyping-yet-another-magic-website
this is not how medical research works. You need to prove the effectiveness of the medicament in a double-blind placebo controlled study. I would not trust anything from Trump and especially not from Kushner. Kushner has been thinking about ways how to line his pockets from this crisis, by selling coronavirus tests or unproven medicaments.


----------



## philoctetes

"But that guy's obviously one in a million. I would say nobody chooses homelessness, but okay, something like one in a million do"

This is not "science".


----------



## science

Here's a very sad story: 3 pastors killed by coronavirus



> "They're gonna come up with a vaccine and in that vaccine everybody is gonna have to take it … and inside of that vaccine there's going to be some type of electronic computer device that's gonna put some type of chip in you and maybe even have some mood, mind-altering circumstances … and they're saying that the chip would be the mark of the beast," he continued.


People need to pick their religious beliefs carefully.

But again, a lot of this is about having trustworthy institutions. When you have millions of people who KNOW that the institutions that claim to serve them are actually not on their side, they they look around the world for something else and come up with random beliefs.

Anyway, whatever. Too tragic to think about. The people who always get hurt the most are getting hurt the most.


----------



## science

philoctetes said:


> your preferences aren't really important to anybody who seeks truth


You were the one that brought them up.



philoctetes said:


> "But that guy's obviously one in a million. I would say nobody chooses homelessness, but okay, something like one in a million do"
> 
> This is not "science".


No, it isn't. I didn't think anyone would take it as science.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> you are hyping here a totally unproven medicament
> https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-research-by-hyping-yet-another-magic-website
> this is not how medical research works. You need to prove the effectiveness of the medicament in a double-blind placebo controlled study. I would not trust anything from Trump and especially not from Kushner. Kushner has been thinking about ways how to line his pockets from this crisis, by selling coronavirus tests or unproven medicaments.


I am NOT hyping anything... or reporting anything false like other statements ^^^ I'm simply trying to post the news that is not on your "preferred" sources .. at first it was ignored and now I keep getting attacked for it... and it's obvious you haven't read everything I've posted about France...

It's not "totally unproven" that is a false statement again.. it's not a new drug and it HAS been used extensively... for malaria obviouslly... some rando on Twitter today posted a pic of a ration list from his Vietnam vet father's supply kit, and it included chloroquine pills... but of course that guy must be a false source too...

The real problem is that people who don't want this cure to vindicate people they don't like.... we are supposedly in a *wartime* crisis and many of the usual channels are being short-circuited.... why am I the only one suspicious of the way it's being banned in some places while showing great success in others... when something doesn't look right it's because it isn't, that's a fundamental rule of life... and it's usually hiding something very political or corrupt...

This problem with not trusting Trump or anything that backs him up could be the ultimate problem that gets more people dead.. He did not start this thing.


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Maybe I say this too much, but... the Federal Reserve aka The Fed plays a big role in spreading the wealth gap with each boom and bust cycle... these cycles take out members of all wealth classes, either destroying their wealth partially or completely. But most of the banks, big corporations, and their owners survive, and essential businesses like GM or Boeing get bailed out... and then they still gouge on wages benefits prices etc... and whatever the ordinary person gains in the boom gets more than negated in the bust...
> 
> There is an interesting counter-theory to the usual thinking about minimum wage jobs... that the welfare *option* puts downward pressure on wage levels... so to the extent that people choose to be "subsidized", often resulting in homelessness, it's the government payout that baselines wages for companies like Wal-Mart which hire at the baseline threshold where employees make these choices between income sources... many of those people learn to work the system, cut corners etc... and get through life without working. I did it myself for a couple years in the 70s when US unemployment was in double digits... but back then it was enough to afford a small apartment, and that's not true anymore... in CA the baseline is not, as some like to say, a "living income", CA is just too expensive... but the climate is friendly to the homeless, so we have an explosion of them now...
> 
> I honestly believe that the homeless crisis in SF is the aftermath of the dot-com bust and the mortgage bust combined, along with a real estate market that has gone completely out of reach for even many in the middle class...
> 
> But that kind of theory is too "provocational" here as someone said about me recently... so nuff about that...


Fwiw, I don't find that provocational in some negative way. It's an interesting perspective. Also, btw, 'provocational' to me means something that is controversial and which others may strongly disagree. Nothing more, nothing less.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> I am NOT hyping anything... or reporting anything false like other statements ^^^ I'm simply trying to post the news that is not on your "preferred" sources .. at first it was ignored and now I keep getting attacked for it... and it's obvious you haven't read everything I've posted about France...
> 
> It's not "totally unproven" that is a false statement again.. it's not a new drug and it HAS been used extensively... *some rando on Twitter today posted a pic of a ration list from his Vietnam vet father's supply kit, and it included chloroquine pills... but of course that guy must be a false source too...*
> 
> The real problem is that people who don't want this cure to vindicate people they don't like.... we are supposedly in a *wartime* crisis and many of the usual channels are being short-circuited.... why am I the only one suspicious of the way it's being banned in some places while showing great success in others...


Vietnam has malaria, so having antimalarial drugs while being a soldier there is not surprising. But why should an antimalarial drug (malaria is a parasite) work against a virus? There is currently no scientific evidence that it does. Unless some medical authority I trust confirms that the drug works, I will not believe it. A a medical authority is not some quack doctor from youtube.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> Vietnam has malaria, so having antimalarial drugs while being a soldier there is not surprising. But why should an antimalarial drug (malaria is a parasite) work against a virus? There is currently no scientific evidence that it does. Unless some medical authority I trust confirms that the drug works, I will not believe it. A a medical authority is not some quack doctor from youtube.


Your lack of knowledge is not my problem... Same with some other posters here... now it's that youtube is not a good source and you attack the messengers ad hominem again... this is not scientific thinking... it's political science... in science, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence... and in your case you simply haven't looked for the evidence.. why do I keep spelling out the basics of logic to you "science" people?


----------



## philoctetes

And what I resent is that your pushing me into this "hype" corner, constantly defending myself, just for posting the news from alt sources, then you report me (I will abide the mods but have no respect for that)... I'd wager with you all but the lamestream media dominates, is on your side and not mine... I can't depend on the facts to be reported correctly by your preferred sources... which have a habit of not naming theirs... never correcting their errors, many of which are deliberate, year after year, unproven... so how about you post your sources and I'll post mine and we just stop the attacks on each other for just being messengers...


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> Vietnam has malaria, so having antimalarial drugs while being a soldier there is not surprising. But why should an antimalarial drug (malaria is a parasite) work against a virus? There is currently no scientific evidence that it does. Unless some medical authority I trust confirms that the drug works, I will not believe it. A a medical authority is not some quack doctor from youtube.


A drug designed for hypertension turned out to help some cases of alopecia (hair loss). Another drug meant for hypertension turned out to be useful for erectile dysfunction. The 2 chloroquines have been found to reduce coronavirus replication in vitro; that's a scientific fact. Whether they will work effectively enough to make a difference in human covid-19 disease is still to be confirmed.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> Your lack of knowledge is not my problem... Same with some other posters here... now it's that youtube is not a good source and you attack the messengers ad hominem again... this is not scientific thinking... it's political science... in science, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence... and in your case you simply haven't looked for the evidence.. why do I keep spelling out the basics of logic to you "science" people?


Each one of us has some sources that he trusts. I trust Fauci much more than I trust Trump
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ti-malaria-drug-coronavirus-game-changer.html
you can trust whomever you want. This anti-expert and anti-intellectual mindset that a lot of Americans have developed is likely going to kill people now. 
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...oronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-shelter-in-place


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> Each one of us has some sources that he trusts. I trust Fauci much more than I trust Trump
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ti-malaria-drug-coronavirus-game-changer.html
> you can trust whomever you want. This anti-expert and anti-intellectual mindset that a lot of Americans have developed is likely going to kill people now.
> https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...oronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-shelter-in-place


You don't know me... so let me tell you one thing.. I TRUST NOBODY.. especially not the media you trust... I simply want to see the prospects of the drug explored ASAP and not suppressed or delayed, and what I see is delay and suppression, probably for the purpose of manipulating the supply and cost of the drug... while the death count rises...

These issues are far deeper and complex than this forum is capable of exploring without going beyond the usual comfort zone of media credibility... and all you're adding is uninformed skepticism...


----------



## mountmccabe

aleazk said:


> Of course not, there's also some in Africa. But, really, how many more pandemics coming from China, this is at least the third one since the year 2000 and relaled to mishandling of wild animals, do we need for them to stop it? As far as I know, you don't see masses of Mozambique tourists in the streets of Rome...


This is the first pandemic since 2000 from China. SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in Hubei in 2019. That's one.

What are the other two you're counting?

The other current pandemic is HIV/AIDS, which originated in Africa in the 60s, so that can't count. The H1N1/09 virus that caused the 2009 swine flu pandemic originated in central Mexico in fall 2008.

SARS-CoV was first identified in Guandong in 2002, but the subsequent SARS outbreak was not a pandemic. And even if you meant "epidemic" that's still only two.


----------



## Flamme

Guys cmon...No need 4 so much ''toxicity''...We have that plenty anywhere else online or in ''real life''...


----------



## philoctetes

Flamme said:


> Guys cmon...No need 4 so much ''toxicity''...We have that plenty anywhere else online or in ''real life''...


Whatever you would rather discuss, maybe you could give us a hint?


----------



## Flamme

No I like the discussion, but I dont like some tones, I think they are not helping it...American politics got ''balkanised'' since last elections...I dont remember so much passion and aggression like NEVER and I remember us presidents since Reagan until now and I know through books and movies about others...This is getting too hot to handle.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> You don't know me... so let me tell you one thing.. I TRUST NOBODY.. especially not the media you trust... I simply want to see the prospects of the drug explored ASAP and not suppressed or delayed, and what I see is delay and suppression, probably for the purpose of manipulating the supply and cost of the drug... while the death count rises...
> 
> These issues are far deeper and complex than this forum is capable of exploring without going beyond the usual comfort zone of media credibility... and all you're adding is uninformed skepticism...


the one who has tried to manipulate the supply chain is Trump. Trump handed Gilead exclusive rights over remdesivir
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2...rageous-decision-hand-gilead-exclusive-rights
the whole world needs the medicament ASAP and Trump is trying to line his corporate pockets and restrict the supply. 
The same was when he was trying to secure "exclusive rights" for a vaccine for America only. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...mp-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal
wake up.


----------



## aleazk

mountmccabe said:


> This is the first pandemic since 2000 from China. SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in Hubei in 2019. That's one.
> 
> What are the other two you're counting?
> 
> The other current pandemic is HIV/AIDS, which originated in Africa in the 60s, so that can't count. The H1N1/09 virus that caused the 2009 swine flu pandemic originated in central Mexico in fall 2008.
> 
> SARS-CoV was first identified in Guandong in 2002, but the subsequent SARS outbreak was not a pandemic. And even if you meant "epidemic" that's still only two.


Ah yes, the first sars was epidemic. As for the 2009, I read somewhere that a US institution considered it likely came from Asia, probably China, rather than Mexico.

Anyway, leaving those technicalities aside, my point was that it was rather obvious after the first Sars that a similar epidemic would happen again in a very similar way and from a very similar virus if those markets were not closed once and for all. Chinese scientists have been alerting about that. And that's exactly what happened with this new virus. And will happen again if the same conditions remain.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> the one who has tried to manipulate the supply chain is Trump. Trump handed Gilead exclusive rights over remdesivir
> https://www.commondreams.org/news/2...rageous-decision-hand-gilead-exclusive-rights
> the whole world needs the medicament ASAP and Trump is trying to line his corporate pockets and restrict the supply.
> The same was when he was trying to secure "exclusive rights" for a vaccine for America only.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...mp-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal
> wake up.


Are you trying to get this thread closed?


----------



## philoctetes

Flamme said:


> No I like the discussion, but I dont like some tones, I think they are not helping it...American politics got ''balkanised'' since last elections...I dont remember so much passion and aggression like NEVER and I remember us presidents since Reagan until now and I know through books and movies about others...This is getting too hot to handle.


I don't like the tones either... but I like your comment about American politics... the balkanization is (donning protective gear) exactly why I have shifted away from divisive democrats... would say more but I suspect it would get me in trouble...


----------



## Flamme

Some ppl who promote ''theory'' its a biological weapon went rogue from a lab say it wasnt even a chinese lab but that it belonged 2 some big US corporation...Something is off here, my hunch tells me.


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Some ppl who promote ''theory'' its a biological weapon went rogue from a lab say it wasnt even a chinese lab but that it belonged 2 some big US corporation...Something is off here, my hunch tells me.


I don't care for conspiracy theories. I personally do not believe it is a bioweapon for the simple reason that it is not lethal enough and that it obviously ravages all countries. A bioweapon would be more deadly and would kill mostly the young.


----------



## mountmccabe

aleazk said:


> As for the 2009, I read somewhere that a US institution considered it likely came from Asia, probably China, rather than Mexico.


Yes, plenty of people baselessly spout things that fit their racist point of view.

The 2009 swine H1N1 flu pandemic -- responsible for more than 17,000 deaths worldwide -- originated in pigs from a very small region in central Mexico, a research team headed by investigators at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai is reporting..


----------



## aleazk

mountmccabe said:


> Yes, plenty of people baselessly spout things that fit their racist point of view.


Yes, we cannot say the obvious about China and the virus because it's "racist" 

Paper by Chinese scientists pretty much describing all of what I was saying here: https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660

Were they being "racist" to themselves?.....

I give a **** about race, I just don't want this to happen again. If it were from place x, I would say the same thing about place x.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> Trump handed Gilead exclusive rights over remdesivir
> The same was when he was trying to secure "exclusive rights" for a vaccine for America only.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...mp-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal
> wake up.


First of all, I won't object to Trump doing something for America... this is standard fodder for attacking him and the Guardian is in the usual attack party..

But your Common Dreams article is worth keeping an eye on... again, whatever Bernie says has to be considered political, not science, same as Trump... you can't compare Trump to Fauci (though you did) because Trump does not pretend to be a doctor... and neither should Bernie...

Being of the suspicious paranoid conspiracy stripe, I have a crazy idea about what this all could mean about chloroquine, but ... nevermind...

"wake up" - I'm plenty awake and I'd appreciate a little less drama at this point...


----------



## science

Flamme said:


> Some ppl who promote ''theory'' its a biological weapon went rogue from a lab say it wasnt even a chinese lab but that it belonged 2 some big US corporation...Something is off here, my hunch tells me.


This is why institutions and sources matter!

I'm sure there will be a lot of misinformation as this gets really bad globally -- I think there already is right now, actually.

Anyway, there'll be a time to look back and figure out what could've been done better and where the blames lie, but for now we have so many things to deal with looking forward, problems to solve right now.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> I don't care for conspiracy theories. I personally do not believe it is a bioweapon for the simple reason that it is not lethal enough and that it obviously ravages all countries. A bioweapon would be more deadly and would kill mostly the young.


Accidental release during development... or an agenda that you're not considering... the proximity of the lab to Wuhan is a fact that goes beyond theory..

People who follow mainstream news conspiracy theories who claim they don't follow conspiracy theories are pretty funny ya know... best to just admit we all pick and choose according to our own sense of *intelligence*... mine of course being inferior to all others...


----------



## Flamme

That way both sides are ''right'' american s when they say the virus came from china and chinese who accuse the '''us military'' of producing it. 




Is it now a part of trend 2 get virus...Interestingly enough 2day I wacthed on Euronews how RELAXED approach to whole matter have the swedish authorities who didnt put country on a lockdown only introuduced some milder restrictions on the population...


----------



## aleazk

Kinda silly to make a bioweapon that ends attacking your own country in such an easy way...


----------



## Flamme

Thats why they claim it wasnt ''originally' the chinese bioweapon not even an american one, but belonged to a multi-culti corporation that exists in a world of its own, non biding by anybodys rules but theirs.


----------



## Art Rock

aleazk said:


> Kinda silly to make a bioweapon that ends attacking your own country in such an easy way...


[conspiracy mode on]... it might have been accidentally released.... or it was released on purpose, sacrificing a few Chinese (on a population of over a billion) for a multitude of victims worldwide.... knowing that the Chinese can more easily kickstart their economy from this pandemic than other countries... [conspiracy mode off]

There's a novel somewhere in this. Maybe I'll give it a try. I already have the title: Pandora's Box.


----------



## philoctetes

aleazk said:


> I give a **** about race, I just don't want this to happen again. If it were from place x, I would say the same thing about place x.


Unfortunately, there are many place x's that don't have that self-aware perspective...


----------



## philoctetes

Flamme said:


> Thats why they claim it wasnt ''originally' the chinese bioweapon not even an american one, but belonged to a multi-culti corporation that exists in a world of its own, non biding by anybodys rules but theirs.


I've seen this suggested and apparently there are such international labs in existence... but I wish someone else would do the footwork and post a source, how reliable or not... I'm kinda worn out from info wars and need to get some real exercise...


----------



## Flamme

Im not an expert on biochemistry but it strikes me as a bit odd that the virus that ''jumped'' from animals, many of whom are dogs, which are the normal snack in china, in wet markets, on humans cannot be passed on from dogs to humans, as chinese gov said lately...


----------



## Jacck

Art Rock said:


> [conspiracy mode on]... it might have been accidentally released.... or it was released on purpose, sacrificing a few Chinese (on a population of over a billion) for a multitude of victims worldwide.... knowing that the Chinese can more easily kickstart their economy from this pandemic than other countries... [conspiracy mode off]
> 
> There's a novel somewhere in this. Maybe I'll give it a try. I already have the title: Pandora's Box.


if I should guess, it is going to have negative long term consequences for the Chinese economy. For the simply reason, that many countries are going to realize that maybe it was not such a great idea to outsource the production of critical products to China after all. So medical protective gear and medicament production and likely many other things such as electronic component supply chains etc are going to be pulled out of China. The great decoupling is here.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> For the simply reason, that many countries are going to realize that maybe it was not such a great idea to outsource the production of critical products to China after all. So medical protective gear and medicament production and likely many other things are going to be pulled out of China.


The *Great Awakening* already has a grab on you  sounds like ti came straight from Fox News...


----------



## aleazk

Art Rock said:


> [conspiracy mode on]... it might have been accidentally released.... or it was released on purpose, sacrificing a few Chinese (on a population of over a billion) for a multitude of victims worldwide.... knowing that the Chinese can more easily kickstart their economy from this pandemic than other countries... [conspiracy mode off]
> 
> There's a novel somewhere in this. Maybe I'll give it a try. I already have the title: Pandora's Box.


:lol:

Well, i was actually referring to the case in which it was a US weapon


----------



## aleazk

philoctetes said:


> The *Great Awakening* already has a grab on you  sounds like ti came straight from Fox News...


Ha, this guy seems like fox news australia:


----------



## Flamme

lol...


----------



## aleazk

Flamme said:


> Thats why they claim it wasnt ''originally' the chinese bioweapon not even an american one, but belonged to a multi-culti corporation that exists in a world of its own, non biding by anybodys rules but theirs.


As far as I know, the technology for engineering a virus simply doesn't exist. Besides, all the evidence is quite strong in the direction of zoonosis, which is a very common thing.

It really requires much less imagination than those conspiracy theories to consider that something is not gonna end well if you put bats, pangolins, and who knows what more, one above the other in a market with zero hygienic conditions.


----------



## Jacck

aleazk said:


> As far as I know, the technology for engineering a virus simply doesn't exist. Besides, all the evidence is quite strong in the direction of zoonosis, which is a very common thing.
> 
> It really requires much less imagination than those conspiracy theories to consider that something is not gonna end well if you put bats, pangolins, and who knows what more, one above the other in a market with zero hygienic conditions.


the technology exists
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_virology


----------



## philoctetes

New theory constructed from forum narratives:

Trump is really evil and is using chloroquine as a decoy while he and his family get rich off the Gilead drug... which is not a high-profile story so there must be others getting rich too... evidently that leaves out Bernie, so he's making noise about it... 

Now here comes the part I add

Biden, and his covey of cohorts, also stand to gain from the Gilead thing... he's not going to get elected and that's the whole idea, and why Bernie is, as usual, not in the club...

You saw it here first... just a wild donkey conspiracy theory that means nothing... but kinda combines how some of us think in a funny way...

But if ya follow this theory to it's logical conclusion, it's hard to see how Trump could get away with this... unless they keep us locked away... and I'd be surprised that he would set himself up...


----------



## mountmccabe

aleazk said:


> Yes, we cannot say the obvious about China and the virus because it's "racist"
> 
> Paper by Chinese scientists pretty much describing all of what I was saying here: https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660
> 
> Were they being "racist" to themselves?.....
> 
> I give a **** about race, I just don't want this to happen again. If it were from place x, I would say the same thing about place x.


What I was saying was that people blamed the H1N1/09 virus on China, not because that's where they traced its origins, but because it fit the story they wanted to tell. And I don't think it is racist to point out that SARS-CoV came from wildlife markets in China, nor to point out that it could happen again. I do think it is racist to pretend like that's the only vector for disease, or to act like there aren't serious food safety violations all around the world, or that most corporations given the chance would loosen their standards as much as they could.

Yes, the virus causing the current pandemic originated in China, but calling it a "Chinese virus" or similar names focuses blame in unhelpful ways, and leads to people attacking those of Chinese (or even Asian) descent, and leads to people calling for boycotting anything from or made in China, closing borders, and so on. These are not helpful urges.

The animal mixtures going on at these wildlife markets where this virus jumped to humans don't exist because wide swaths of the Chinese population eat exotic meats, or use exotic animal ingredients. They are rare and expensive. The consumption of bats is uncommon. Pangolin were not legal for sale even before it was found that they likely were a reservoir for SARS-CoV-2. I'm not claiming these animals aren't sold, but that they appeal to a very small population (that has the money to buy them and political influence to keep them quasi-available).

Meanwhile exotic meats are available in the USA, too. Do you want to eat emu, alpaca, ostrich, iguana, beaver, alligator, muskrat, or armadillo? You can get it shipped to you in a couple days. They may not come from the same market, but there are also people in the USA willing to pay a premium to eat uncommon meats.

China shut down their wildlife markets and banned wildlife trade and consumption. Hopefully it sticks this time.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> New theory constructed from forum narratives:
> 
> Trump is really evil and is using chloroquine as a decoy while he and his family get rich off the Gilead drug... which is not a high-profile story so there must be others getting rich too... evidently that leaves out Bernie, so he's making noise about it...
> 
> Now here comes the part I add
> 
> Biden, and his covey of cohorts, also stand to gain from the Gilead thing... he's not going to get elected and that's the whole idea, and why Bernie is, as usual, not in the club...
> 
> You saw it here first... just a wild donkey conspiracy theory that means nothing... but kinda combines how we all think in a funny way...


the disgusting thing about the Gilead drug is that is was not developed by Gilead, but by universities from tax money. It was also based on the research of a Czech scientist prof Holý
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonín_Holý
Trump used some law about rare diseases to basically secure the drug for Gilead (although it was developed through public money)
https://theintercept.com/2020/02/29...of-interest-in-trumps-coronavirus-task-force/


----------



## Flamme

So spanish flu was a-ok but chinese flu is dreadful and racist, ok...


----------



## mountmccabe

Flamme said:


> Im not an expert on biochemistry but it strikes me as a bit odd that the virus that ''jumped'' from animals, many of whom are dogs, which are the normal snack in china, in wet markets, on humans cannot be passed on from dogs to humans, as chinese gov said lately...


Dogs are not a common food in China. Dog meat is eaten by a small portion of the population, and even amongst them it is uncommon.

And yes, current thinking is that this virus came from bats to pangolins to humans.


----------



## mountmccabe

Flamme said:


> So spanish flu was a-ok but chinese flu is dreadful and racist, ok...


The 1918 flu pandemic is hypothesized to have originated in Kansas, USA. Or somewhere in France. Some have said China. It was called the Spanish Flu because Spain wasn't involved in the Great War and thus their media wasn't in full propaganda mode and actually publicized what was going on.

It's a stupid name from a hundred years ago.

Also SARS-CoV-2 isn't an influenza virus.


----------



## philoctetes

I could be wrong, but he difference I perceive is that the Chinese markets deliver live animals to the point of sale... in the cities... hence "wet market" is the term... in the US the only common equivalence I know of is live shellfish... until you go to a place like China town where you can get live chickens and who knows what if you ask... would be less of a problem if it wasn't in a city...

To provide live animals at an urban point of sale is like operating a cattle stockyard in the middle of a city. Nobody does that in the US as far as I know.... chickens are pretty much where the line is drawn and animals in the US raised for food are typically not delivered to city markets live... they go through butcher shops first...


----------



## Flamme

Anyway chinese must stop with eating everything and grinding everything into ''potention potions''...
This quote 
“If it has got four legs and it is not a chair, if it has got two wings and it flies but is not an aeroplane, and if it swims and it is not a submarine, the Cantonese will eat it.”
― H.R.H. Prince Philip


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> the disgusting thing about the Gilead drug is that is was not developed by Gilead, but by universities from tax money. It was also based on the research of a Czech scientist prof Holý
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonín_Holý
> Trump used some law about rare diseases to basically secure the drug for Gilead (although it was developed through public money)
> https://theintercept.com/2020/02/29...of-interest-in-trumps-coronavirus-task-force/


According to the remdesivir Wiki: The "initial screening" of the "Gilead Sciences compound library to find molecules with promising antiviral activity" was performed by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).[10] As a result of this work, it was recommended that GS-5734 "should be further developed as a potential treatment."

Also, a wiki indicates that Gilead funded some of your Czech scientist's work. You are being conveniently dismissive of Gilead's role.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> Trump used some law about rare diseases to basically secure the drug for Gilead (although it was developed through public money)
> https://theintercept.com/2020/02/29...of-interest-in-trumps-coronavirus-task-force/


If that's true I can't find a citation in that article... it's all COI stuff that is mostly a distraction because it's everywhere in DC... the Intercept is one of the most agenda-driven sources I know of... sometimes they are *good* agendas... I have different reactions to how they cover different stories..


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> According to the remdesivir Wiki: The "initial screening" of the "Gilead Sciences compound library to find molecules with promising antiviral activity" was performed by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).[10] As a result of this work, it was recommended that GS-5734 "should be further developed as a potential treatment."
> 
> Also, a wiki indicates that Gilead funded some of your Czech scientist's work. You are being conveniently dismissive of Gilead's role.


a Czech scientist Tomáš Cihlář led the research team at Gilead that developed the drug and Cihlář was a pupil of Holý (who developed many antiretroviral drugs including ebola and HIV). Here is the research, it comes originally from ebola research
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/03/160303120644.htm
Obviously, Gilead played a role in developing the drug, but there were also other public institutitions such as the CDC and the USAMRIID.

the question is, if the drug works and the world is in the middle of a pandemic, is it a good idea to restrict the drug to one company and thus severely limit its production?


----------



## philoctetes

Maybe this is interesting, from a link buried in the Intercept article

Joseph Grogan and Big Pharma

https://democracyforward.org/updates/bts-joseph-grogan-big-pharma/

This took me a couple of readings... and I could spin this story two ways which would imply quite different intentions... but it would require knowing more things that are hard to know...

COI is definitely a problem in politics, but it often comes with expertise... experience... and in the search for fresh clean hands, fraud or inexperience can be another problem..It's like "insider trading" ... another gray line sometimes


----------



## philoctetes

"the question is, if the drug works and the world is in the middle of a pandemic, is it a good idea to restrict the drug to one company and thus severely limit its production?"

So you're really a shill for Gilead... ah it's all clear now


----------



## pianozach

Flamme said:


> So spanish flu was a-ok but chinese flu is dreadful and racist, ok...


Jeez.

"The Spanish Flu" epidemic was in 1918, a hundred years ago. Long before racial sensitivity.

Hell, we didn't even get rid of "whites only blacks only" drinking fountains until the 1960s. People were still hurling around the words ****, *****, ****, Ay-rab, n*gg*r, Rooskie, ****** and whatnot well through the 1950s and beyond. Women couldn't vote or hold property (without permission). The public enjoyed "Minstrel Shows". And we hadn't even gotten to the rebirth of the KKK yet. Or how Germans referred to Jews in the 1930s. Or how Americans referred to the Japanese in the 1940s.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> "the question is, if the drug works and the world is in the middle of a pandemic, is it a good idea to restrict the drug to one company and thus severely limit its production?"
> 
> So you're really a shill for Gilead... ah it's all clear now


when Salk developed a vaccine for polio, he refused to patent it and instead gave it to the world. That was a time, when America was great


----------



## aleazk

mountmccabe said:


> What I was saying was that people blamed the H1N1/09 virus on China, not because that's where they traced its origins, but because it fit the story they wanted to tell. And I don't think it is racist to point out that SARS-CoV came from wildlife markets in China, nor to point out that it could happen again. I do think it is racist to pretend like that's the only vector for disease, or to act like there aren't serious food safety violations all around the world, or that most corporations given the chance would loosen their standards as much as they could.
> 
> Yes, the virus causing the current pandemic originated in China, but calling it a "Chinese virus" or similar names focuses blame in unhelpful ways, and leads to people attacking those of Chinese (or even Asian) descent, and leads to people calling for boycotting anything from or made in China, closing borders, and so on. These are not helpful urges.
> 
> The animal mixtures going on at these wildlife markets where this virus jumped to humans don't exist because wide swaths of the Chinese population eat exotic meats, or use exotic animal ingredients. They are rare and expensive. The consumption of bats is uncommon. Pangolin were not legal for sale even before it was found that they likely were a reservoir for SARS-CoV-2. I'm not claiming these animals aren't sold, but that they appeal to a very small population (that has the money to buy them and political influence to keep them quasi-available).
> 
> Meanwhile exotic meats are available in the USA, too. Do you want to eat emu, alpaca, ostrich, iguana, beaver, alligator, muskrat, or armadillo? You can get it shipped to you in a couple days. They may not come from the same market, but there are also people in the USA willing to pay a premium to eat uncommon meats.
> 
> China shut down their wildlife markets and banned wildlife trade and consumption. *Hopefully it sticks this time*.


That's the only thing that matters. Anyway, if you backtrack my comments, I actually said very few people in China actually eat those animals, and that the problem is the corrupt regime, not the people, who are equal victims of that regime.

But I do think that the problem of wild animal traffic is far worse in China than anywhere in the world. Probably in Africa you have it too, but Africa is not, unlike China, one of the main sources of international tourists.


----------



## aleazk

Jacck said:


> the technology exists
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_virology


I was talking about actually designing the virus genetic material such that it does what you want it to do. I actually knew that you can build the RNA of a known virus by pasting more smaller molecules. I think this was done in the early 2000s. Is it possible to actually desing that RNA to your liking?


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> when Salk developed a vaccine for polio, he refused to patent it and instead gave it to the world. That was a time, when America was great


I know, and America will not get better if all ti can do is blame Trump for that... and understand that the players who led us to this point still hold a lot of power that they can't be trusted with..

To me, California has always been cultish, and CA politics still retains the cultishness of the Jonestown disaster... in tribalism and the identity politics that balkanizes the left...

I also think that the Reagan generation really blew their chance to correct a lot of things when the timing was much better, earlier... with Bush I as well... I thought this when it was happening... instead we had everybody go boomer... and we're still catching up with lost opportunity... Reagan was just sticking with his old California playbook that had been pretty successful but he had no tolerance for activism... a brutal intolerance in fact... we were all kinda scared of him back then... in a way I don't feel about Trump, but others differ..


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> a Czech scientist Tomáš Cihlář led the research team at Gilead that developed the drug and Cihlář was a pupil of Holý (who developed many antiretroviral drugs including ebola and HIV). Here is the research, it comes originally from ebola research
> https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/03/160303120644.htm
> Obviously, Gilead played a role in developing the drug, but there were also other public institutitions such as the CDC and the USAMRIID.
> 
> the question is, if the drug works and the world is in the middle of a pandemic, is it a good idea to restrict the drug to one company and thus severely limit its production?


If that happens, I think you can be sure that if Gilead can't produce enough drug, there will be enormous pressure to allow other companies to help with production.


----------



## science

FBI warns of potential surge in hate crimes against Asian Americans amid coronavirus



> ...
> 
> The document detailed a March 14 incident in Midland, Texas, in which "three Asian American family members, including a 2-year-old and 6-year-old, were stabbed … The suspect indicated that he stabbed the family because he thought the family was Chinese, and infecting people with the coronavirus."
> 
> ...


----------



## philoctetes

aleazk said:


> I was talking about actually designing the virus genetic material such that it does what you want it to do. I actually knew that you can build the RNA of a known virus by pasting more smaller molecules. I think this was done in the early 2000s. Is it possible to actually desing that RNA to your liking?


um, this is where I would plead actual ignorance but assume that the answer is yes... we know how amino acid sequencing shapes a protein, so we simply model various sequences and simulate them on computer... what is hard about that?

Maybe you can do it online...
https://en.vectorbuilder.com/design.html


----------



## KenOC

*New Jersey doctor gives update on use of hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir on coronavirus patients*

Interesting article on how the chief physician at a large multi-facility health care group with 1,400 coronavirus inpatients is using these medications, and the results he is seeing. He is careful not to puff up the results but says (for instance), "We're probably using the hydroxychloroquine recipe in some way shape or form in about three-quarters of our patients right now."


----------



## philoctetes

In the case of coronavirus, the molecule has a spherical "backbone" with additional spikes that looks like a pin-cushion... the spikes are different in the various strains that affect different species... the subsequence that codes those spikes has somehow been altered to attack human lung cells.


----------



## Open Book

aleazk said:


> That's the only thing that matters. Anyway, if you backtrack my comments, I actually said very few people in China actually eat those animals, and that the problem is the corrupt regime, not the people, who are equal victims of that regime.
> 
> But I do think that the problem of wild animal traffic is far worse in China than anywhere in the world. Probably in Africa you have it too, but Africa is not, unlike China, one of the main sources of international tourists.


If so few people in China eat "those animals", why are pangolins going extinct? This is happening to both the Asian and African varieties. They are being relentlessly poached on both continents to satisfy the Chinese market. Poachers are getting rich off of them.

Stop letting your fear of being racist obscure your recognition of the truth. An episode of "Nature" from WGBH tells the story.

Pangolins are "the most widely trafficked animal in the world". "More valuable than ivory".


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> If so few people in China eat "those animals", why are pangolins going extinct?


A significant portion of demand is from the medical sector. Pangolin scales "are used in Chinese traditional medicine for a variety of ailments including excessive anxiety and hysterical crying in children, women thought to be possessed by devils and ogres, malarial fever, and deafness." (Wiki)


----------



## KenOC

"A *Holland America cruise ship*, carrying four bodies and scores of patients with coronavirus-like symptoms, has been given permission to cross the Panama Canal, allowing them to continue their journey toward Florida, the cruise line's president said Sunday…

"The wait staff is from the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, many of whom are sick and need medical help… the number of passengers and crew with flu-like symptoms has ballooned to 138."

The authorities in Florida are not happy about this.


----------



## aleazk

KenOC said:


> A significant portion of demand is from the medical sector. Pangolin scales "are used in Chinese traditional medicine for a variety of ailments including excessive anxiety and hysterical crying in children, women thought to be possessed by devils and ogres, malarial fever, and deafness." (Wiki)


Let me correct one thing: not medical, but """medical"""... if you know what I mean...


----------



## aleazk

philoctetes said:


> um, this is where I would plead actual ignorance but assume that the answer is yes... we know how amino acid sequencing shapes a protein, so we simply model various sequences and simulate them on computer... what is hard about that?
> 
> Maybe you can do it online...
> https://en.vectorbuilder.com/design.html


Well, that kind of molecular biology is quite outside my field, so I have no clue if it's possible or not.


----------



## Jacck

WHO launches global megatrial of the four most promising coronavirus treatments
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...al-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments
so we will see the results.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> A significant portion of demand is from the medical sector. Pangolin scales "are used in Chinese traditional medicine for a variety of ailments including excessive anxiety and hysterical crying in children, women thought to be possessed by devils and ogres, malarial fever, and deafness." (Wiki)


Yes, that, too. That's in the video. Whatever the use, consumption of these rare animals (and others) is a part of Chinese culture. The Chinese government is so ruthless that it could probably change the culture if it wanted to. Maybe they lack the will to do so. It would be like the U.S. government saying Americans had to stop consuming burgers and steak. Or turkey at Thanksgiving. There would be strong resistance because that's an ingrained part of our culture.

When you think about it, a widely varied diet isn't all bad. It's more weird that we eat only a few meats that we could count on the fingers of one hand. Even eating dogs isn't necessarily evil. Sure, dogs have a special place in our culture because they can be loving pets. But so can pigs, which we eat with no qualms.


----------



## eljr

NY lost 500 people today to the virus. 

WTF!


----------



## KenOC

*'Virus-fighting' scientist gets magnets stuck in nose*

Ended up in the hospital! I KNEW there had to be a rational explanation for this… Ah, there it is. He's Australian. Almost as batty as Florida. Almost.


----------



## philoctetes

aleazk said:


> Well, that kind of molecular biology is quite outside my field, so I have no clue if it's possible or not.


afte4r posting that I realized how much I underestimated how difficult that problem could be... calculations for all possible energy states of a quantum system with many degrees of freedom... as it folds itself into a ball or whatever... but I imagine a hundred thousand grad students researching away at techniques to simplify the calculations...


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> *'Virus-fighting' scientist gets magnets stuck in nose*
> 
> Ended up in the hospital! I KNEW there had to be a rational explanation for this… Ah, there it is. He's Australian. Almost as batty as Florida.


WE MUST blame the authorities who have been telling us not to touch our faces...


----------



## philoctetes

eljr said:


> NY lost 500 people today to the virus.
> 
> WTF!


Are you in a hot spot? sorry if you answered that already...


----------



## philoctetes

aleazk said:


> Let me correct one thing: not medical, but """medical"""... if you know what I mean...


"medicinal" is the term you're looking for I think...


----------



## philoctetes

philoctetes said:


> It's hard to interpret financial commentary sometimes, but this morning I saw an argument that the Fed should go in reverse, to which I thought, they no longer have a reverse gear... but I think the idea is that after years of liquidity programs, the Treasury needs some of that cash back to support emergency programs...
> 
> My second thought was to look at the market bubble they're created, still flirting with zero rates again, and how that bubble has now been popped. If there is a better time to load up on bullets again, by selling more treasuries, raising more cash, and letting rates float, when is it?
> 
> Apologies in advance for shallow thinking or false factualizing...


^^^^ it happened... this is probably a good thing... temporarily holding up the dollar and avoiding negative rates

The Flood Begins: Treasury To Sell Over A Quarter Trillion Bills In 48 Hours

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/flood-begins-treasury-sell-over-quarter-trillion-bills-48-hours


----------



## aleazk

philoctetes said:


> "medicinal" is the term you're looking for I think...


Well, whatever it is, certainly it is _not_ medicine that has been empirically proven to actually _cure_ something.

Which makes the origin of this pandemic even more absurd and tragic, since it was spawned by the most profound ignorance of the most basic principles of the modern world...


----------



## philoctetes

aleazk said:


> Well, whatever it is, certainly it is _not_ medicine that has been empirically proven to actually _cure_ something.
> 
> Which makes the origin of this pandemic even more absurd and tragic, since it was spawned by the most profound ignorance of the most basic principles of the modern world...


Its as if sanitation and refrigeration aren't part of the system


----------



## tdc

There are a lot of red flags to me around this. Now we have evidence of the media (CBS news) using fake photos claiming footage from Italy was actually New York, there is a movement started on twitter #filmyourhospital. People are posting footage of empty local hospitals.






This video below shows how the tests for covid-19 are not effective:






How creepy is that _Contagion_ movie footage from the above video that seems to re-enact the same scenario we are going through now?

How about this Madonna performance from May 2019, which seems to foresee a similar event:






Creepy.

The fact is there is not evidence of an effective covid-19 test existing. The test they are using tests for *any form of coronavirus*, there are many many coronaviruses and these kinds of viruses are commonly found in all of our bodies.

With this fake test think about how easy it would be to create a pandemic scare like this. Earlier in this thread I already linked to a video showing how over 80,000 people in America died of the flu a couple of winters ago. Where was the media panic, then? It is also documented that* medical errors kill at least 250,000 people in the U.S.A. every year (possibly more like 440,000)*. Why don't people get concerned about those numbers?

Why do people only get concerned about the issues the proven liars in MSM tell us to?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

A.I. will provide a mental health professional for this obsession . 
24/7 personalized in-home counseling .


----------



## philoctetes

Glad to see someone else is seeing these things... ^^^ I already have enough provocation"on my hands to go there... this stuff gets amplified above the suppression level on Twitter for a brief time and then "algorithms" shut it down... but having it amplified temporarily gives it more visibility than it would have otherwise... then we can be our own judge of what to trust...

False positives... this has been another suspicion of mine for too long... but the US has a new test, so we hear...


----------



## bz3

KenOC said:


> *'Virus-fighting' scientist gets magnets stuck in nose*
> 
> Ended up in the hospital! I KNEW there had to be a rational explanation for this… Ah, there it is. He's Australian. Almost as batty as Florida. Almost.


Hah, as a Floridian I must confess that you Californians baffle us just as much.


----------



## KenOC

I’m having a bit of a hard time with the idea that COVID-19 tests are useless because they give positive results on any kind of coronavirus, and of course we’re awash in those!

In fact, the usual test kit first looks for a positive result on COVID-19, and then a second separate test is used to eliminate false positives.* These kits were used exclusively during the Seattle cluster, and 3% came back positive; the other 97% were negative. These results don’t suggest that people widely host other coronaviruses, and that the tests will detect any of them.

And, in fact, the rather high rates of hospitalization and death among those testing positive also suggest that the determinations from the testing were accurate.

BTW, the conspiracy suggested in post #1700 would require the participation of a truly huge number of people, which seems unlikely – just a little!

*It was this second test that was defective in the early kits, causing a CDC recall and delays in testing during the early stages of the US outbreak.


----------



## philoctetes

So, by second separate test you mean they take a second swab? Just curious, I've not heard or seen any of this dual-test info before...


----------



## bz3

I believe our elites truly are both malevolent and stupid enough to release a biological weapon in the world. I want to believe eventually we'll know the truth but for the moment I believe it was another case of animal (to animal) to human case. I will admit that the conspiracy theorists have some interesting points about the location of the outbreak in Wuhan and the recent prosecutions of various Chinese and American individuals over theft of viral research.


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> Its as if sanitation and refrigeration aren't part of the system


Where I live, pangolins are kept in those refrigerated cabinets along with beef pies, frozen entrees, and fancy whole bats.


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> Where I live, pangolins are kept in those refrigerated cabinets along with beef pies, frozen entrees, and fancy whole bats.


Sounds better than formaldehyde...


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> So, by second separate test you mean they take a second swab? Just curious, I've not heard or seen any of this dual-test info before...


I know the test is administered once -- maybe two swabs, maybe not, I don't know. But the test kit has everything necessary to do both tests and maybe others that I don't know about.


----------



## Open Book

tdc said:


> There are a lot of red flags to me around this. Now we have evidence of the media (CBS news) using fake photos claiming footage from Italy was actually New York, there is a movement started on twitter #filmyourhospital. People are posting footage of empty local hospitals.


From the video: "Why is nobody in line waiting [at the hospital] to get tested? Why aren't there thousands of people in line?"

Well, the hospitals have been cleared of all unnecessary treatments so there will be room and resources for the onslaught. They have protocol, and I don't think making possibly infected people wait shoulder to shoulder in line for a test is part of their routine. They probably whisk them in and isolate them before testing them. Many of them must come in by ambulance.

Wait a week when the number of cases has quadrupled and then see how the hospitals look.


----------



## KenOC

*Skagit County* is in rural Washington State about an hour north of Seattle. It is home to a famous tulip festival that people look forward to this time of year. Its largest city is Mount Vernon.

In early march, Skagit County had no coronavirus cases. Mount Vernon's Presbyterian Church decided to go ahead with choir practice, offering hand sanitizer at the door and discouraging hugging or other contact. 60 singers showed up. Multiple people have said that nobody at the choir practice showed any signs of illness - no coughing or anything like that.

Two weeks later, 45 choir members have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or are showing symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead. "Experts said the choir outbreak is consistent with a growing body of evidence that the virus can be transmitted through aerosols - particles smaller than 5 micrometers that can float in the air for minutes or longer." And this can happen, evidently, even when symptoms are not present.

"One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it's possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled. 'One could imagine that really trying to project your voice would also project more droplets and aerosols,' he said."

I know some of our members work with choirs. For God's sake, be careful!


----------



## starthrower

How reliable are these tests being green lighted in a hurry by the FDA? "Emergency Authorization" has been given to a number of these tests. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ott-labs-fast-portable-covid-test/2932766001/

"Other companies have also received emergency use authorization from the FDA, which allows for the use of unapproved medical devices during a public health emergency."


----------



## science

tdc said:


> Why do people only get concerned about the issues the proven liars in MSM tell us to?


Are you "practicing social distancing" or continuing to live the same way as usual?


----------



## philoctetes

I submitted "coronavirus test accuracy" and this came to the top of the search.. which discusses false negatives at length and not false positives at all... not what I expected...

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228250


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> "One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it's possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled. 'One could imagine that really trying to project your voice would also project more droplets and aerosols,' he said."


Yeah, it's not only possible it's likely, isn't it? I'm convinced.

If you're outdoors, even if you're over six feet away, probably best not to talk to somebody and be downwind.

But being indoors sounds even riskier.


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> I submitted "coronavirus test accuracy" and this came to the top of the search.. which discusses false negatives at length and not false positives at all... not what I expected...
> 
> https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228250


This story may help: *Why the CDC botched its coronavirus testing*

The blame is said to belong to "faulty negative controls." Maybe you can make sense of this and post what it means!


----------



## KenOC

*CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public*

See story.


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> This story may help: *Why the CDC botched its coronavirus testing*
> 
> The blame is said to belong to "faulty negative controls." Maybe you can make sense of this and post what it means!


Yeah I had to read that a few times.. negative control is the chemical indicator for a negative... it "shows" a response in the absence... and it got contaminated... so a true negative would test positive cause the control did not respond...

I thought this was interesting about modeling ... "Even when you have a good database of viral sequences, not all primer sets that look good on a computer will perform well in real life"


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> *CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public*
> 
> See story.


Your post on Skagit was useful... some idiots on my Next Door site are trying to form a social club "if we just stay 6 feet away yada yada".. so I posted the link and told them not to be foolish... Now they're sputtering that they never meant anything stupid...


----------



## Guest

philoctetes said:


> Yeah I had to read that a few times.. negative control is the chemical indicator for a negative... it "shows" a response in the absence... and it got contaminated... so a true negative would test positive cause the control did not respond...
> 
> I thought this was interesting about modeling ... "Even when you have a good database of viral sequences, not all primer sets that look good on a computer will perform well in real life"


It amazes me that such confused and unintelligible text could come from the MIT technology review. No definition of what the negative control is, yet we are supposed to understand what went wrong with it from their vague suggestions. I assume the negative control is a PCR reaction that generates a product even with no target RNA present to prove that the PCR enzymes are active. It might have an artificial target built in. A set of enzymes that has been improperly stored will be inactive and produce no product, even if target is present.

They keep talking about amplifying the DNA when the virus is RNA. It is not conventional PCR, but one using a reverse transcriptase to produce a product from an RNA target.

And that bit about "not all primer sets that look good on a computer will perform well in real life." As if that is controversial. I've designed a fair number of PCR primer sets. Every undergraduate lab assistant knows that the software used to select primers is flakey. The software you use to design them supplies suggested primers, allow you to tinker with them, give you lists of false hybridizations and self hybridizations that can cause them to fail. Then you have to pick a pair and choose hybridization temperatures from all the options presented and hope you find a product when you try to run the reaction. Getting a set that works on the first try is lucky. It is more normal to resort to trial and error.

What I heard is that the primers had hairpins, they curled up and stuck to themselves, rather than sticking to the viral target. Maybe their primers worked nicely on some $100,000 PCR machine in a CDC lab, but failed on a basic, low precision PCR machine found in a clinical setting.

Amazing that the CDC could screw up so bad.


----------



## aleazk

Some basic mathematical epidemic modeling (friendly reading!): https://medium.com/data-for-science...ovid19-exponential-fits-are-wrong-97aa50c55f8


----------



## aleazk

philoctetes said:


> Its as if sanitation and refrigeration aren't part of the system


What depress me is actually how much widespread is magic thinking even in these modern times. Tons of pseudo-medicines out there, all of them claiming cures for practically everything but with zero evidence supporting those claims, and yet people buy it! One would think that in such delicate things such as health, people would be more careful for their own good. But evidently the desire to "believe" is stronger.


----------



## KenOC

An interesting graph from MSN:


----------



## erki

aleazk said:


> What depress me is actually how much widespread is magic thinking even in these modern times. Tons of pseudo-medicines out there, all of them claiming cures for practically everything but with zero evidence supporting those claims, and yet people buy it! One would think that in such delicate things such as health, people would be more careful for their own good. But evidently the desire to "believe" is stronger.


Few good reasons come to mind right away: "real medicine" is too expensive and often ruthless(hospitalisation, surgery), since health care and drug industry is very profitable there is a mistrust to it in various degree and soft practices of 1000 years old can't go wrong.


----------



## Flamme

Starting 2 work 2omorrow and can barely wait...I feel like an animal in a cage. This is not life. Anmd some speculate governments around the world could make it permanent!


----------



## mrdoc

Is paper a good transmitter of this thing? I thought it was but our government have reclassed news papers as an essential business and allowed them to publish and deliver to homes, and how about letters, magazines etc that arrive in the letter box?
Another thing how about the actual tins, boxes, plastic packages etc that we get from the super markets would these also be carriers of this coronavirus? I ask this because we have been in level 4 lock down since last Thursday and I have signed up for online shopping to be delivered to my door.


----------



## Art Rock

What I've read is that the virus can in principle survive many days on these materials, but that the chance of catching it this way is orders of magnitude lower than by direct contact with an infected person (handshakes or close proximity).

Mail I get out of the mailbox wearing disposable gloves, and leave it unopened in a separate stack for at least a week. The free local newspaper gets the gloves treatment at well and goes straight into the paper rubbish canister. I can get all info from internet.

The groceries we unpack if possible (from plastic to storage systems), the tins and bottles we try not to touch and use for a week. 

And of course after every handling, rigorous handwashing.

It's probably overkill, but we're not taking chances.


----------



## perempe

the chief medical officer recommended the eggs to be bleached today here in Hungary.


----------



## Room2201974

Three weeks ago, my nephew in law's parents came down with Covid19. They live in Albany, NY. How did they get the virus? He works in a warehouse and regularly opens shipments from overseas - China. They are fine now, almost completely recovered and did not require hospitalization. Everything that comes into our house we wipe down, mail, UPS, groceries, whatever. I feel like I'm living like Howard Hughes, without the money!!!


----------



## Flamme

LOL just bought an italian beer can hopefully not contaminated!!!


----------



## Sad Al

I fart on everything that I buy. No virus can survive my farts


----------



## Flamme

Fact yourself:lol:


----------



## erki

KenOC said:


> An interesting graph from MSN:


 As powerful as this image is it does not reflect the fact that there is a vaccine for flu and we know pretty well this virus. I bet the first years with flu had similar rates as we see now with corona.
There is so much of tilted information trying to make us act certain way. And often conflicting. I hope not to loose my sanity.


----------



## starthrower

If you don't have any disinfectant wipes, you can wipe down objects with rubbing alcohol 70% or higher, hydrogen peroxide, bleach and water. I read a few articles but I didn't see ammonia mentioned. But I use ammonia based glass cleaner on any used CD jewel boxes I receive in the mail. I'm not too worried because I probably wash my hands at least a dozen times a day. I don't have a dishwasher so my hands are in the sink a lot cleaning up. I also listened to a doctor who said to undress, throw your clothes in the washer, and take a shower after you've made the rounds at the retail stores for your groceries and other supplies. Not a bad idea just to be safe.


----------



## philoctetes

"What I heard is that the primers had hairpins, they curled up and stuck to themselves, rather than sticking to the viral target"

yah, may naive thoughts about this were that you can code the sequence you want to form the shape you want, but you can't be sure that it will fold up correctly as there are probably undesirable meta-stable energy states for these complex molecules where they form the wrong shapes...


----------



## Flamme

https://www.newsweek.com/more-50-doctors-italy-have-now-died-coronavirus-1494781
We dont really know the details of many a death...Were they solely because of the ''crown virus'' or ''other things''...


----------



## philoctetes

I can't be like these people or want them to succeed, which is why I can't swallow the kool-aid...

Hospital Exec Fired After Discussing Ways Of Ensuring Trump Supporters Get Coronavirus

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hosptital-exec-fired-after-discussing-ways-ensuring-trump-supporters-get-coronavirus

In NY too, no surprise... I can't say what I would do to someone like this


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> I also listened to a doctor who said to undress, throw your clothes in the washer, and take a shower after you've made the rounds at the retail stores for your groceries and other supplies. Not a bad idea just to be safe.


i had not though of that


----------



## philoctetes

eljr said:


> i had not though of that


It's my usual practice after going for a hike, to avoid getting poison oak... and It can't hurt...


----------



## eljr

erki said:


> As powerful as this image is it does not reflect the fact that there is a vaccine for flu and we know pretty well this virus. I bet the first years with flu had similar rates as we see now with corona.
> There is so much of tilted information trying to make us act certain way. And ofter conflicting. I hope not to loose my sanity.


it is asinine (fallacy of logic) to compare the flu to covid-19, why indulge?


----------



## philoctetes

eljr said:


> it is asinine (fallacy of logic) to compare the flu to covid-19, why indulge?


Why not explain your objection better rather than tossing insults?


----------



## Sad Al

My lockdown diet of canned beans causes flatulence which improves my social distancing


----------



## Flamme

2day I saw for the first time the ''panic buying'' where people were in the rush to fill the trolleys and carts 2 the top.


----------



## Flamme

Heavens shall burn


----------



## philoctetes

^^^ this is what I fear when fire season comes to CA and we're all still in quarantine...


----------



## philoctetes

Some lay-technical info about the spread here

8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/scientists-track-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/


----------



## pianozach

philoctetes said:


> I can't be like these people or want them to succeed, which is why I can't swallow the kool-aid...
> 
> Hospital Exec Fired After Discussing Ways Of Ensuring Trump Supporters Get Coronavirus
> 
> https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hosptital-exec-fired-after-discussing-ways-ensuring-trump-supporters-get-coronavirus
> 
> In NY too, no surprise... I can't say what I would do to someone like this


Ah. "ZeroHedge".

Your trusted source of anonymous 'journalism' since . . . well, _never_.

Clickbait site (So manymanymanymany popup ads). Poorly written inflammatory article trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.

While the articles contain some facts, those facts are cherrypicked and sometimes the conclusions extrapolated from them use faulty logic.

The only articles that aren't critically gloomy or alarmist are those that involve Mr. Trump, where the tone changes to a more positive and glowing literary style.


----------



## philoctetes

pianozach said:


> Ah. "ZeroHedge".
> 
> Your trusted source of anonymous 'journalism' since . . . well, _never_.
> 
> Clickbait site (So manymanymanymany popup ads). Poorly written inflammatory article trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.
> 
> While the articles contain some facts, those facts are cherrypicked and sometimes the conclusions extrapolated from them use faulty logic.
> 
> The only articles that aren't critically gloomy or alarmist are those that involve Mr. Trump, where the tone changes to a more positive and glowing literary style.


So the article is false? What are you saying except the obvious unfounded dismissal?

I dismiiss anybody who objects to news on these grounds. What you have is that NY is epicenter for both CV and TDS, so there is nothing shocking about this news except for how disgusting and evil it is... prove that it's false and I will change my mind, otherwise leave me alone or I will report you

but yeah "zerohedge bad" will tip the argument ha...

here is the original source... zerohedge did not author the article

https://summit.news/2020/03/31/hosptital-exec-fired-after-discussing-ways-of-ensuring-trump-supporters-get-coronavirus/

Note the article below as well

Maddow Claimed It Was "Nonsense" A Naval Hospital Ship Would Dock in New York by Next Week; It's Arrived

^^^ this is all over the world media and is absolutely true... but no shame ever... and it's exactly why sources like ZH are among my favorties... especially for the technical financial feed - ZH is simply smarter on that level and it's the foundation for their reporting...


----------



## philoctetes

Finally "mountain out of molehill" just says all we need to know...


----------



## mmsbls

We all know the coronavirus has caused enormous anxiety, and coupled with the uncertainty of information, it's understandable that people will be on edge, quicker to "retaliate", and more aggressive in responses. I will ask again that, when posting, you comment on content rather than on other members. In general we differentiate between "attacks" on content and "attacks" on members, but given the situation, perhaps people can try to temper their responses on content as well. That doesn't mean people ought not push back on posts they view are incorrect or misleading, but rather they could keep in mind how polarized this discussion has been when making such comments.


----------



## philoctetes

I see so many people posting comments based on what they don't know or don't want to seek... it blows my mind... everybody thinks they're a debunker now... which is just the flip side of conspiracy theory... 

One of the most famous radio conspiracy theorist of the 80s, David Emery, became one of the founders of the debunking profession, snopes etc.. and it's now just a hit-for-hire business that pretty much defines the state of the media... corrupt...


----------



## mmsbls

philoctetes said:


> I see so many people posting comments based on what they don't know or don't want to seek... it blows my mind...


Aren't we all rather ignorant of this issue? Also I can't tell what information people don't want to know. I assume people actually would like to know more about the coronavirus and how to lessen it's effects. People simply have quick filters to help them deal with the large amount of information to which they're exposed. The filters are far from perfect.


----------



## Flamme

Yup. We are all more-or-less laymen on this issue and there are opposite statements from both experts and analysts...


----------



## philoctetes

"People simply have quick filters to help them deal with the large amount of information to which they're exposed. The filters are far from perfect. "

My comment is more about "active" filtering, when the filtering attempts to limit or control information... which should be beyond the scope of this discussion, if it wasn't being practiced so much...

even you mods express your opinion by proxy, when you take moderator actions... it's not all that biased, but it's there...


----------



## philoctetes

Flamme said:


> Yup. We are all more-or-less laymen on this issue and there are opposite statements from both experts and analysts...


Which is why nobody is really qualified to assess quality of info, except by preference or success rate... and by my count, the latter is not very high for most of the popular mainstream sources... but that's just me...

a source like ZH just gathers a bunch of articles and a few essays let's the reader judge...I don't want all the politcal dishonest arm-twisting I get from the lamestream media...

btw, ZH has often gone hard on Trump... when they have good reason... ZH has not supported all the Fed manipulation that Trump is carrying over from Obama... they don't like bubbles... they want a sound middle-class economy... but you would have to actually read the content to know that...

Being critical of Dem policies does not make a publication far-right... The Nation, if you recall, came down pretty hard on dems during Bill Clinton's terms... but that was in the last century before Bush II , the 911 panic, the WMD panic, etc...


----------



## philoctetes

Extending the theme, apparently some hospitals just want everybody to shut up and work or they will replace you...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/hospitals-tell-doctors-they-ll-be-fired-if-they-talk-to-press


----------



## philoctetes

Reports of thievery are breaking out locally... I'm in a spot by myself where this is gonna come to me sooner or later... not looking forward to this..


----------



## starthrower

philoctetes said:


> Extending the theme, apparently some hospitals just want everybody to shut up and work or they will replace you...
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/hospitals-tell-doctors-they-ll-be-fired-if-they-talk-to-press


Kinda like most other employers. This is anecdotal of course but I've had three hospital stays in 2004, 2016, and 2019 and during my last one I've never seen a hospital so understaffed. Of course this hospital is now owned by some big conglomerate with their bean counters.


----------



## mountmccabe

erki said:


> As powerful as this image is it does not reflect the fact that there is a vaccine for flu and we know pretty well this virus. I bet the first years with flu had similar rates as we see now with corona.
> There is so much of tilted information trying to make us act certain way. And ofter conflicting. I hope not to loose my sanity.


See, that's the thing I find more curious. People that bring up the flu as a killer and why don't we ever shut things down for that... well in part because we DO go to great lengths to keep the flu from being too much of a problem. Many people get flu shots each year, so we are all protected by some herd immunity. There are (well-tested!) antiviral drugs useful for treating severe cases.

Also many of the common sense things that the CDC and other organizations have been pushing - washing your hands, covering your cough, stay home if you're sick, and so on - are not new concepts and the flu is one of the reasons these are so important (though there are other viruses and possible infections these things can help protect against).

The influenza virus is an important part of our life, and it changes what we do. SARS-CoV-2 is taking the attention now because it is new, and because some saw the possibility for it to get much worse than the typical yearly flu, as it is now doing, due to the lackluster responses we've seen.


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> Reports of thievery are breaking out locally... I'm in a spot by myself where this is gonna come to me sooner or later... not looking forward to this..


*Good news* for you, perhaps? The Feds have given "guidance" that gun and ammo stores are "critical infrastructure" and should be allowed to operate. LA County has already taken this guidance to heart and is allowing them to re-open. I'm sure other counties will follow suit.


----------



## erki

It is just so amazing how easily all leaders around the world(and the most arrogant thugs among them) shut down the economy on the face of this virus whereas all the other disaster warnings get brushed away as foolish talk and "conspiracy theory". The idea of malicious disease spreading rapidly with modern air travel has been around for ages(30 years as I remember) and now we have it. What about all the predictions with climate changes, plastic waste, fossil fuel? Why can't we act in time if the dismantle of economy is so easy and widely accepted?


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> *Good news* for you, perhaps? The Feds have given "guidance" that gun and ammo stores are "critical infrastructure" and should be allowed to operate. LA County has already taken this guidance to heart and is allowing them to re-open. I'm sure other counties will follow suit.


I think LA waffled on this a couple times... it's a hard choice but the right one I think...

Also some distraught dude crashed his truck into a tree on the local HS grounds attempting to kill himself...


----------



## Guest

erki said:


> It is just so amazing how easily all leaders around the world(and the most arrogant thugs among them) shut down the economy on the face of this virus whereas all the other disaster warnings get brushed away as foolish talk and "conspiracy theory". The idea of malicious disease spreading rapidly with modern air travel has been around for ages(30 years as I remember) and now we have it. What about all the predictions with climate changes, plastic waste, fossil fuel? Why can't we act in time if the dismantle of economy is so easy and widely accepted?


The difference is that this is sudden. The others are like the proverbial frog that will jump out of hot water but will not jump out of water that is slowly heated, to the point of being cooked.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> *Good news* for you, perhaps? The Feds have given "guidance" that gun and ammo stores are "critical infrastructure" and should be allowed to operate. LA County has already taken this guidance to heart and is allowing them to re-open. I'm sure other counties will follow suit.


Liquor stores are another controversial essential resource. An alcoholic suddenly deprived of alcohol can die.


----------



## philoctetes

Baron Scarpia said:


> Liquor stores are another controversial essential resource. An alcoholic suddenly deprived of alcohol can die.


In CA you don't need to go to a liquor store to get liquor, but this differs from state to state... OTOH, cannabis dispensaries have been allowed curb-side operations which is also controversial.. but there is no alternate legal source...

On second thought, it's also true that some department stores like Wal-Mart and K-Mart sell guns, but they have been yielding to anti-gun pressure lately...


----------



## philoctetes

Baron Scarpia said:


> The difference is that this is sudden. The others are like the proverbial frog that will jump out of hot water but will not jump out of water that is slowly heated, to the point of being cooked.


The frog analogy seems perfect for wet markets...


----------



## Kieran

erki said:


> It is just so amazing how easily all leaders around the world(and the most arrogant thugs among them) shut down the economy on the face of this virus whereas all the other disaster warnings get brushed away as foolish talk and "conspiracy theory". The idea of malicious disease spreading rapidly with modern air travel has been around for ages(30 years as I remember) and now we have it. What about all the predictions with climate changes, plastic waste, fossil fuel? Why can't we act in time if the dismantle of economy is so easy and widely accepted?


Soon as the hospital system looks like it's about to be tsunami'd, they have to do something, but the "dismantle of economy" is not "so easy and widely accepted."

It's catastrophic, and its necessity will be a matter of argument for years to come...


----------



## starthrower

Baron Scarpia said:


> The difference is that this is sudden. The others are like the proverbial frog that will jump out of hot water but will not jump out of water that is slowly heated, to the point of being cooked.


This, and the fact that we as humans are great at declaring war on an external enemy. Dealing with stuff like poverty, homelessness, universal healthcare, and a warming climate seems to be much harder.


----------



## Kieran

Edited: off topic post...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> Soon as the hospital system looks like it's about to be tsunami'd, they have to do something, but the "dismantle of economy" is not "so easy and widely accepted."
> 
> It's catastrophic, and its necessity will be a matter of argument for years to come...


let me quote Churchill _"I think we shall have to choose in the next few weeks between war and shame, and I have very little doubt what the decision will be. We shall choose Shame, and then have War thrown in"_

now we can say, that we have an option to chose between the economy and a lockdown. If we chose the economy, the lockdown will be thrown in, and the economy won't be saved in the end. Once the deaths start going into the thousands (think Italy and Spain), healtcare system will collapse and economy will be halted anyway. People will be afraid of the virus. Tourist industry, culinary industry, pubs, hotel industry - all of this is going to suffer no matter what you do.

Now it is already clear, that the social distancing measures have reduced the R-0 number for the virus, and thus deaths
https://bigworldtale.com/science/co...opean-lives-already-saved-thanks-to-measures/


----------



## geralmar

100 coronavirus cases on U.S. Navy aircraft carrier:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> let me quote Churchill _"I think we shall have to choose in the next few weeks between war and shame, and I have very little doubt what the decision will be. We shall choose Shame, and then have War thrown in"_
> 
> now we can say, that we have an option to chose between the economy and a lockdown. If we chose the economy, the lockdown will be thrown in, and the economy won't be saved in the end. Once the deaths start going into the thousands (think Italy and Spain), healtcare system will collapse and economy will be halted anyway. People will be afraid of the virus. Tourist industry, culinary industry, pubs, hotel industry - all of this is going to suffer no matter what you do.
> 
> Now it is already clear, that the social distancing measures have reduced the R-0 number for the virus, and thus deaths
> https://bigworldtale.com/science/co...opean-lives-already-saved-thanks-to-measures/


Like I said, once the hospital system was in danger of being overwhelmed, they had to do something. But it will be a matter of focus for years to come. Personally, I don't see any other option, but to protect the hospitals and their staff, because this will be with us for a while...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> Like I said, once the hospital system was in danger of being overwhelmed, they had to do something. But it will be a matter of focus for years to come. Personally, I don't see any other option, but to protect the hospitals and their staff, because this will be with us for a while...


it need not be. Both the SARS and MERS came and disappeared and nobody really knows why. There is also the option that this virus is going to disappear, or we will find a medicament or a vaccine.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> it need not be. Both the SARS and MERS came and disappeared and nobody really knows why. There is also the option that this virus is going to disappear, or we will find a medicament or a vaccine.


Your lips to God's ears. Some form of normal would be great to see...


----------



## Jacck

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/health/hospitals-and-coronavirus.html
I don't know why a doctor in his 60s even bothers. I would have shown them the middle finger and went into pension.


----------



## mountmccabe

Jacck said:


> it need not be. Both the SARS and MERS came and disappeared and nobody really knows why. There is also the option that this virus is going to disappear, or we will find a medicament or a vaccine.


MERS hasn't become an epidemic (or worse) because there is limited human-to-human transmission of MERS-CoV. Most transmission is from close contact with people that are seriously ill (and not walking around, spreading it), or camel-to-human transmission.

COVID-19 is spreading because SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted by people with mild symptoms, often before the host knows that they are sick (if, indeed, they ever realize it).

SARS is somewhere in between those two; again it is most contagious when the sickness has developed to the point that the infected were (generally) not walking around freely, which means that quarantine and isolation of infected (and possibly infected) was effective. Most of the super-spreaders were because they were travelling, etc. while sick enough to be contagious.


----------



## pianozach

philoctetes said:


> So the article is false? What are you saying except the obvious unfounded dismissal?
> 
> I dismiiss anybody who objects to news on these grounds. What you have is that NY is epicenter for both CV and TDS, so there is nothing shocking about this news except for how disgusting and evil it is... prove that it's false and I will change my mind, otherwise leave me alone or I will report you
> 
> but yeah "zerohedge bad" will tip the argument ha...
> 
> here is the original source... zerohedge did not author the article
> 
> https://summit.news/2020/03/31/hosptital-exec-fired-after-discussing-ways-of-ensuring-trump-supporters-get-coronavirus/
> 
> Note the article below as well
> 
> Maddow Claimed It Was "Nonsense" A Naval Hospital Ship Would Dock in New York by Next Week; It's Arrived
> 
> ^^^ this is all over the world media and is absolutely true... but no shame ever... and it's exactly why sources like ZH are among my favorties... especially for the technical financial feed - ZH is simply smarter on that level and it's the foundation for their reporting...





philoctetes said:


> Finally "mountain out of molehill" just says all we need to know...


Oh Sweet Wounded Jeezus.

So now it's "Summit News" They're even more anonymous than than ZH. No info on who's running that. No "about" section, no bio for the author.

Now, it's very likely that this lady authored those comments, and, while they're in extremely poor taste, especially for someone in her position, she's not actually suggesting a policy change. It's obvious she's kidding.

It's also likely that she's been fired, maybe for this, perhaps not.

But the article IS trying to make the whole thing into some sort of horrendous act on her part. I find it especially disingenuous that in spite of three years of a president who makes remarks far more egregious than this, there are no in depth exposés on him, or some of his aides that have also made infuriatingly threatening remarks.

In regards to the very diplomatic reminder to be civil from our Assistant Administrator *mmsbls*, duly noted. The country has become astonishingly divided for the last three to four years, and extraordinarily so ever since this pandemic has become a political football.

However, if we cannot question _content_, then there's nothing to discuss.

I'm sure I could find questionable websites that have astonishingly damning stories about those on the "Right", but I don't. I don't because I truly try to find stories with solid facts from reputable sources. I could post bunches; I doubt it wouldn't take too long to Google some up . . . and if they are full of untruths, but there's a policy of NOT questioning content, all we have left is a circus.


----------



## Jacck

mountmccabe said:


> MERS hasn't become an epidemic (or worse) because there is limited human-to-human transmission of MERS-CoV. Most transmission is from close contact with people that are seriously ill (and not walking around, spreading it), or camel-to-human transmission.
> 
> COVID-19 is spreading because SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted by people with mild symptoms, often before the host knows that they are sick (if, indeed, they ever realize it).
> 
> SARS is somewhere in between those two; again it is most contagious when the sickness has developed to the point that the infected were (generally) not walking around freely, which means that quarantine and isolation of infected (and possibly infected) was effective. Most of the super-spreaders were because they were travelling, etc. while sick enough to be contagious.


that is true, but with SARS-CoV-2 we do not know how many have an asymptomatic infection. If the number is high (some sources said that up to 70%), then there is some reason for optimism, because the population could be immunized quickly. If the fraction of asymptomatic infections is low, then containment and waiting for vaccine is the better strategy.


----------



## Jacck

for example here
https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumb...symptomatic/story-cic1NVt7yz5XlRd3pXNT8L.html
they say that 87% infections are asymptomatic. Even in Lombardy they still struggle with tests and not even all symptomatic are tested. That means the known diagnosed cases are just a tip of the iceberg and likely millions undiagnosed are infected already. If that is the case, infections in Lombardy will peak soon and Lombardy will have herd immunity. (of course the price is thousands of dead). If this model is true, the infection will be over this year. If it is not true, then it could be a long fight.


----------



## mountmccabe

Jacck said:


> for example here
> https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumb...symptomatic/story-cic1NVt7yz5XlRd3pXNT8L.html
> they say that 87% infections are asymptomatic. Even in Lombardy they still struggle with tests and not even all symptomatic are tested. That means the known diagnosed cases are just a tip of the iceberg and likely millions undiagnosed are infected already. If that is the case, infections in Lombardy will peak soon and Lombardy will have herd immunity. (of course the price is thousands of dead). If this model is true, the infection will be over this year. If it is not true, then it could be a long fight.


Another important factor is how long immunity lasts, and how effective it is against different strains. What I have seen said that those who had SARS held immunity for between from three months to three years. Close to the former would be very troublesome.

Also worth keeping in mind is that we don't have a vaccines for any coronavirus, though this is likely more a funding problem than anything inherent to the family of viruses. But it's good there area lot of vaccine avenues being pursued; we don't have much history to go on here.


----------



## Jacck

mountmccabe said:


> Another important factor is how long immunity lasts, and how effective it is against different strains. What I have seen said that those who had SARS held immunity for between from three months to three years. Close to the former would be very troublesome.
> 
> Also worth keeping in mind is that we don't have a vaccines for any coronavirus, though this is likely more a funding problem than anything inherent to the family of viruses. But it's good there area lot of vaccine avenues being pursued; we don't have much history to go on here.


yes, there are a lot of unknowns. There is no lasting humoral immunity to SARS. But they produce memory T-cells and those are long lived. The cell-mediated immunity likely offers some protection (resistence) to future reinfection. 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25056892

but there are also more scary options. I forgot the exact medical term for the phenomenon, but sometimes vaccinations or previous infection can make the subsequent reinfection even more deadly. (hope that is not the case here)


----------



## philoctetes

"However, if we cannot question content, then there's nothing to discuss"

Then question it, as I will question yours... which is zilch... you've only attacked sources ad hominem on the basis they don't agree with your issues even though you don't read them or or something like that it's hilarious... and if I do the same to your preferred sources I will get an avalanche of hate for that too... in the name of jeezus no less...

YOU may want to be treated in the hospital by people like that, but I don't... That does not matter to you, does it?

Maybe I should use the red font more... would that help?


----------



## philoctetes

The thing is, if you prove the content that I post wrong, that's far better., intelligent, and something I can respect.....so where are those proofs? I'd rather keep an open mind in their absence...


----------



## science

There are enough good, reputable news organizations that we can refer to easily enough. We shouldn't have to spend time investigating every random source on the internet.


----------



## philoctetes

Look, I give up... if you all want, the mods are welcome to delete my replies to pianozach about this hospital official.. there is no point when it's obvious he agrees with her and can't renounce her but has to redirect the denouncement to.... you know... 

So, he agrees with her, and I assume that anybody else who takes the story as false with no proof must agree with her as well... ya know, social media has a way of being self-documenting, so there is really no other logical conclusion... so it's defending the indefensible...

So it's clear where we all stand right? I have no more need for this drama... which I thought had ended yesterday, but pianozach brought it back...so let's discuss coronavirus and nothing else... see who breaks form next time...


----------



## tdc

science said:


> Are you "practicing social distancing" or continuing to live the same way as usual?


Kind of both. I am an introvert so practice social distancing most of the time. I teach guitar lessons and now offer skype lessons to those of my students that wish to fall in line unquestioningly with the draconian and unconstitutional economic and social distancing policies that have been implemented. Of course I don't phrase it quite that way to my students. Interesting how these authoritarian demands that are based on lies have the effect of people policing themselves.


----------



## science

Two Broward County poll workers test positive for COVID-19.


----------



## science

tdc said:


> Kind of both. I am an introvert so practice social distancing most of the time.


That's good. Believe whatever you want, but don't endanger other people.


----------



## Bigbang

Sad Al said:


> My lockdown diet of canned beans causes flatulence which improves my social distancing


There now, you and the giggler have something in common.


----------



## philoctetes

I stopped at the store after running and felt like there wasn't enough space... was not wearing a mask, never had one... they are scarce, but I'm going to rig something up for the future, like a bandana..


----------



## tdc

So many people will readily acknowledge that we have psychopaths and sociopaths running our world, yet they believe the narrative anyway. 6 corporations own virtually all of the mainstream media. There is a 'deep state' permanent government behind the puppets you see in politics. This is not a far right conspiracy. Here is the topic being discussed on Bill Moyers.






You really think they can't concoct situations like this to see how much damage they can do and how much more money and power they can attain? "No, they wouldn't do _that_". Yes, they would.


----------



## tdc

"in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. 

It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying."

— Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> I stopped at the store after running and felt like there wasn't enough space... was not wearing a mask, never had one... they are scarce, but I'm going to rig something up for the future, like a bandana..


"Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are considering altering the official guidance to encourage people to *take measures to cover their faces* amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a federal official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because it is an ongoing matter of internal discussion and nothing has been finalized."


----------



## science

tdc said:


> "in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods.
> 
> It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying."
> 
> - Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X


What EXACTLY is the big lie?

Like, do you think coronavirus doesn't even exist? What do you think the truth is?


----------



## senza sordino

Today, Tuesday March 31st, 4373 people died of Covid-19.


----------



## arpeggio

In spite of all of the meaningless rhetoric I have seen here and in other sites the bottom line is that in the United States a significant segment of our population has an animas toward science and government. I have seen some polls that show 40% of Americans do not believe in evolution. I have a niece who is one of them. As a result we have a government that is incapable of addressing the catastrophe we are facing. Irregardless on who wins the debate it appears that 100,000 people are going to die.


----------



## tdc

science said:


> What EXACTLY is the big lie?
> 
> Like, do you think coronavirus doesn't even exist? What do you think the truth is?


I think it is a regular flu being hyped. The scam is primarily in the testing.

When the founding fathers of the U.S.A wrote the constitution they were not oblivious to the existence of flus, viruses and pandemics. There is nothing in the constitution that suggests that all of our rights and freedoms get thrown in the trash as soon as the government tells you there is a serious pandemic going on. The founding fathers clearly felt that government itself is the biggest threat to people, to freedom and to liberty. Not viruses, not terrorists, not immigrants or anything else. No they were not all perfect men, but they tried to set up ground rules that would allow for a high degree of freedom and prosperity.

It is very disturbing to me how most people will just go along with this and even start trying to police each other over this LIE. I see posters in this thread trying to police each other, and loving it, they are rolling around in the fear porn and letting it wash over them!

The people who fought for the freedoms people got to enjoy for a time in the U.S. would be rolling in their graves right now. It is because those people stood up for freedom that we were able to enjoy a somewhat free country for as long as we did. That is quickly being destroyed and the early American spirit that valued freedom has taken it for granted and people have become decadent, complacent and weak. That is what is so concerning about this.

This is how countries are destroyed. The deep state is an international group and has no allegiance to any specific country.

"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."

- Benjamin Franklin


----------



## science

tdc said:


> I think it is a regular flu being hyped. The scam is primarily in the testing.
> 
> When the founding fathers of the U.S.A wrote the constitution they were not oblivious to the existence of flus, viruses and pandemics. There is nothing in the constitution that suggests that all of our rights and freedoms get thrown in the trash as soon as the government tells you there is a serious pandemic going on. The founding fathers clearly felt that government itself is the biggest threat to people, to freedom and to liberty. Not viruses, not terrorists, not immigrants or anything else. No they were not all perfect men, but they tried to set up ground rules that would allow for a high degree of freedom and prosperity.
> 
> It is very disturbing to me how most people will just go along with this and even start trying to police each other over this LIE. I see posters in this thread trying to police each other, and loving it, they are rolling around in the fear porn and letting it wash over them!
> 
> The people who fought for the freedoms people got to enjoy for a time in the U.S. would be rolling in their graves right now. It is because those people stood up for freedom that we were able to enjoy a somewhat free country for as long as we did. That is quickly being destroyed and the early American spirit that valued freedom has taken it for granted and people have become decadent, complacent and weak. That is what is so concerning about this.
> 
> This is how countries are destroyed. The deep state is an international group and has no allegiance to any specific country.
> 
> "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
> 
> ~ Benjamin Franklin


We're literally trying to help each other.

I don't know about the Constitutional arguments.

Conspiracy theories are harmless fun in normal times, but now it's real. If you refuse to adopt the behaviors recommended by people who have studied this virus and made their best guess about how we can save each other, then you are guilty of endangering everyone around you and if they die their blood is morally on your hands.


----------



## mmsbls

There is a really nice website developed by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The website projects heath resources and deaths for the US and each individual state in the US.

According to the website:


> This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.
> 
> The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.


They update data every day. Ultimately their median estimate shows 84,000 cumulative deaths through the end of July.


----------



## tdc

science said:


> We're literally trying to help each other.
> 
> I don't know about the Constitutional arguments.
> 
> Conspiracy theories are harmless fun in normal times, but now it's real. If you refuse to adopt the behaviors recommended by people who have studied this virus and made their best guess about how we can save each other, then you are guilty of endangering everyone around you and if they die their blood is morally on your hands.


I have already provided links in this thread to at least a dozen experts in the field seriously questioning this madness. As well as providing you with details from history about how entire populations have been duped into serving destructive agendas. It is happening again. What you are telling me is that if I don't stop trying to think for myself and start listening to the bought and paid for corporate media then I'm endangering other people.

I believe ignorance and mind control are the things that are really endangering people. I haven't brought any conspiracy theories into this, only facts. I did post one David Icke video, yes. If you won't even listen to his view because you've already written him off as a conspiracy theorist, then that is on you. Your idea that government and mainstream media is out for the common good is a conspiracy theory. It is unsupportable at any time with any evidence whatsoever.


----------



## science

tdc said:


> I have already provided links in this thread to at least a dozen experts in the field seriously questioning this madness. As well as providing you with details from history about how entire populations have been duped into serving destructive agendas. It is happening again. What you are telling me is that if I don't stop trying to think for myself and start listening to the bought and paid for corporate media then I'm endangering other people.
> 
> I believe ignorance and mind control are the things that are really endangering people. I haven't brought any conspiracy theories into this, only facts. I did post one David Icke video, yes. If you won't even listen to his view because you've already written him off as a conspiracy theorist, then that is on you. Your idea that government and mainstream media is out for the common good is a conspiracy theory. It is unsupportable at any time with any evidence whatsoever.


You just stay inside, bro. That's all.

If you don't, you're killing people.


----------



## KenOC

mmsbls said:


> There is a really nice website developed by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The website projects heath resources and deaths for the US and each individual state in the US...


This is an interesting site. It projects total coronavirus deaths in the US at 84,000. That's way less than the Spanish flu (500-600,000) and US deaths in WWII (400,000). It's a bit more than US deaths in the Korean and Vietnam wars combined.


----------



## science

If we hold it to 85k deaths, that's really not a bad result considering the possibilities. 

Of course it's tragic for 85k families, but it's still better than 100k or more.


----------



## tdc

science said:


> You just stay inside, bro. That's all.


For now for the most part, I am.

That said the question I would like people to consider is this: For how long? (no one knows) And then when this one is over they can say "look it worked, see what good things happen when we take away your rights and put you under house arrest". Then since the sheep are so obedient they can pull this card anytime they want like magic and can enforce all kinds of draconian laws under the guise of protecting us. So we'll be good until the next "deadly virus" comes and who knows maybe they will start blowing in like weather forecasts. Lockdowns and tracking becoming commonplace, mmm sounds great.


----------



## mmsbls

KenOC said:


> This is an interesting site. It projects total coronavirus deaths in the US at 84,000. That's way less than the Spanish flu (500-600,000) and US deaths in WWII (400,000). It's a bit more than US deaths in the Korean and Vietnam wars combined.


I saw an interview with the Institute Director, Christopher J.L. Murray. He made it clear that these projections assume that the entire country would be sheltered in place by Monday. If not, the death toll will rise, and depending on the details, the toll could be significantly worse. Also the totals are through July 31. At that time the assumption is that new infections are very low, but it's not clear what will happen afterward.

I have seen some experts talk about repeated cycles of sheltering to reduce infections and then opening society allowing the virus to spread again. At some point we would shelter again to bring infections back down until we can open up again. Presumably, the cycles would repeat until a vaccine or effective drugs are found and tested.


----------



## AeolianStrains

science said:


> If we hold it to 85k deaths, that's really not a bad result considering the possibilities.
> 
> Of course it's tragic for 85k families, but it's still better than 100k or more.


But it will inevitably go up. It's also awful considering the time difference. We should have been in a much, much better position now than 1918!


----------



## DaveM

tdc said:


> I think it is a regular flu being hyped. The scam is primarily in the testing...


So all the major countries in the world, including a number that are arch enemies of each other, are in on this scam. All the scientists and physicians have agreed to pass 'the regular flu' off as an ultra-contagious coronavirus. Amazing! I can never figure out how anybody can rationalize all the conflicting evidence that makes such a conspiracy theory impossible to the point of believing it hook, line and sinker.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> So all the major countries in the world, including a number that are arch enemies of each other, are in on this scam. All the scientists and physicians have agreed to pass 'the regular flu' off as ultra-contagious coronavirus. Amazing! I can never figure out how anybody can rationalize all the conflicting evidence that makes such a conspiracy theory impossible to the point of believing it hook, line and sinker.


It's the *Rothschilds*. It's always the Rothschilds.


----------



## science

DaveM said:


> So all the major countries in the world, including a number that are arch enemies of each other, are in on this scam. All the scientists and physicians have agreed to pass 'the regular flu' off as an ultra-contagious coronavirus. Amazing! I can never figure out how anybody can rationalize all the conflicting evidence that makes such a conspiracy theory impossible to the point of believing it hook, line and sinker.


Bolsonaro's not, of course. He's literally telling Brazilians to "die like men."


----------



## erki

tdc said:


> That said the question I would like people to consider is this: For how long? (no one knows) And then when this one is over they can say "look it worked, see what good things happen when we take away your rights and put you under house arrest". Then since the sheep are so obedient they can pull this card anytime they want like magic and can enforce all kinds of draconian laws under the guise of protecting us. So we'll be good until the next "deadly virus" comes and who knows maybe they will start blowing in like weather forecasts. Lockdowns and tracking becoming commonplace, mmm sounds great.


I am not a believer of "deep state" theory but what you say above worries me the most as well. It is in human nature - some people desire power to control others and this scenario is excellent and attractive tool for them to practice it. Maybe this is one answer why the universal lockdown is so readily implemented by so different governments.
However I think it is much more simple - something needs to be done quickly otherwise your people kick you *. And it is inevitable to have hits and misses doing so.


----------



## Sad Al

Bigbang said:


> There now, you and the giggler have something in common.


So he practiced social distancing too!


----------



## erki

science said:


> Bolsonaro's not, of course. He's literally telling Brazilians to "die like men."


He is not the only one. It seems that Turkmenistan banns the word "corona" in their vocabulary and will arrest anyone who wears a respirator in public.


----------



## pianozach

*PSA of the Day*

_"You know, you can use a scarf,"_ Trump said Tuesday at a White House press conference. _"A lot of people have scarves. And you can use a scarf. A scarf would be very good."_

Let that sink in. The President says, _"A scarf would be very good."_


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> "You know, you can use a scarf," Trump said Tuesday at a White House press conference. "A lot of people have scarves. And you can use a scarf. A scarf would be very good."
> 
> Let that sink in. The President says, "A scarf would be very good."


it would, but only if everybody wears it. The main reason behind masks is not to protect the wearer, but to prevent droplets and aerosols from spreading by the infected. And since people are infectious before they become symptomatic, everyone has to wear a mask (or a scarf at worst) to slow down the spread. One of the worst things the CDC and the WHO did was to discourage masks, obviously self-contradicting themselves ("masks do not protect you" "we need them to protect medical personnel").


----------



## Art Rock

erki said:


> He is not the only one. It seems that Turkmenistan banns the word "corona" in their vocabulary and will arrest anyone who wears a respirator in public.


The dictator of Belarus said that there is no virus. I can't see it flying in the air, so it is not there. Continue doing what you normally do.


----------



## tdc

DaveM said:


> So all the major countries in the world, including a number that are arch enemies of each other, are in on this scam. All the scientists and physicians have agreed to pass 'the regular flu' off as an ultra-contagious coronavirus. Amazing! I can never figure out how anybody can rationalize all the conflicting evidence that makes such a conspiracy theory impossible to the point of believing it hook, line and sinker.


No, not everyone is in on it, I've already shown you that many people disagree. When much of the media is owned by a small percentage of people it is not that difficult to circulate certain information and drown out other voices. Things get compartmentalized. Did you know that during the Manhattan Project virtually no one except for the people at the top knew that they were working on an atomic bomb? By using compartmentalization and excuses like 'national security' it is possible to conceal from the public a lot. Not everyone in all countries involved needs to be in on it, not even close. One just needs mostly ignorant people and to have their operatives in certain key positions of government and other institutions.

I already showed statistics indicating something like up to 440,000 people in the United States die yearly due to medical accidents. Doctors are prescribing all kinds of questionable medications. They get paid by pharmaceutical companies to promote certain things. So when these people are given a test for covid-19, most medical professionals are going to use these tests unquestioningly. There will be a few doctors and scientists who raise questions (as they already have) but most are ignoring these people or just don't know of their existence largely because they don't see much (if any) media coverage of them.


----------



## Jacck

tdc said:


> I already showed statistics indicating something like up to 440,000 people in the United States die yearly due to medical accidents. Doctors are prescribing all kinds of questionable medications. They get paid by pharmaceutical companies to promote certain 'cures'. So when these people are given a test for covid-19, most medical professionals are going to use these tests unquestionably. There will be a few doctors and scientists who raise questions (as they already have) but most will ignore these people because they don't see much (if any) media coverage of them.


true mortality from COVID will be seen only ex post, after the pandemic is over, by comparing mortality before the crisis and during and after the crisis. For example if in 2018 600.000 Italians died and in 2020 it was 1.200.000, we will know. 
As for now, everyone with at least 3 brain cells can see, that something extraordinary is happening, when the hospital care in Italy is almost collapsed and there are not enough ventilators. it is probably waste of breath trying explaining it to you. You are trapped in some conspiratorial reality denying bubble.


----------



## tdc

Jacck said:


> true mortality from COVID will be seen only ex post, after the pandemic is over, by comparing mortality before the crisis and during and after the crisis. For example if in 2018 600.000 Italians died and in 2020 it was 1.200.000, we will know.
> As for now, everyone with at least 3 brain cells can see, that something extraordinary is happening, when the hospital care in Italy is almost collapsed and there are not enough ventilators. it is probably waste of breath trying explaining it to you. You are trapped in some conspiratorial reality denying bubble.


Italy is a unique case, the parts of Italy most affected I believe tend to have higher death rates annually than surrounding areas. It is not uncommon for hospitals to be full during flu season. I linked to an article in this thread showing that over 80,000 died a few winters ago in the United States alone from the flu, this is much higher than previous years, many hospitals were over loaded so why was there not so much concern then? But if the news shows a hospital full of dying patients and says that the health system is going to collapse, then your extra brain cells are what tell you that it is true?

Italy is also an aging population with more respiratory problems than most other countries. It has been shown that most of the people that have died in Italy have been very old and were given an anti-viral drug that is known to cause heart problems.


----------



## Jacck

tdc said:


> Italy is a unique case, the parts of Italy most affected I believe tend to have higher death rates annually than surrounding areas. It is not uncommon for hospitals to be full during flu season. I linked to an article in this thread showing that over 80,000 died a few winters ago in the United States alone from the flu, this is much higher than previous years, many hospitals were over loaded so why was there not so much concern then? But if the news shows a hospital full of dying patients and says that the health system is going to collapse, then your extra brain cells are what tell you that it is true?
> 
> Italy is also an aging population with more respiratory problems than most other countries. It has been shown that most of the people that have died in Italy have been very old and were given an anti-viral drug that is known to cause heart problems.


sure, the doctors in hospitals that are seeing COVID patients are just imagining something. China locked down Wuhan just for fun.
BTW, if you let this mainstream-media invented mild flu spread unhindered, then you are going to see millions dead in the US alone.


----------



## tdc

Jacck said:


> sure, the doctors in hospitals that are seeing COVID patients *are just imagining something*. China locked down Wuhan just for fun.
> BTW, if you let this mainstream-media invented *mild flu* spread unhindered, then you are going to see millions dead in the US alone.


I didn't say the doctors are imagining things I gave another explanation which you ignored. I also never said this was a "mild flu", I think it is a rather strong respiratory flu that is being hyped. Through the use of so called covid-19 tests that actually test for _all_ coronaviruses and aren't virus-amount specific, it can be made to look like many more people died from this flu than actually did.

I don't trust the tests and I don't trust the stats. If someone can demonstrate to me the tests are legitimate and how they know that, it would be helpful.


----------



## Bigbang

pianozach said:


> *PSA of the Day*
> 
> _"You know, you can use a scarf,"_ Trump said Tuesday at a White House press conference. _"A lot of people have scarves. And you can use a scarf. A scarf would be very good."_
> 
> Let that sink in. The President says, _"A scarf would be very good."_


Keep in mind that the President speaks in a rather unusual way. The topic (masks) is not the point I am making as the President uses the same syntax (well, some strange way communicating if you will) so anything he states reveals more about him. If he is praising someone (or disparaging) he speaks in this way.

BTW, might as well come out and state the truth: the issue is not whether mask can help the common good (it does) but rather there are not enough to go around. So any makeshift device can help, we don't mean perfectly so but better than nothing. If it keeps your hands off your face then paper towel with rubber bands works too. Does not mean it prevents airborne virus though.

One can get creative and put reminders or markers on their hand to keep the hands from going to the face. Sit and think! What can I do aside from SD to stop bad habits.


----------



## science

tdc said:


> I didn't say the doctors are imagining things I gave another explanation which you ignored. I also never said this was a "mild flu", I think it is a rather strong respiratory flu that is being hyped. Through the use of so called covid-19 tests that actually test for _all_ coronaviruses and aren't virus-amount specific, it can be made to look like many more people died from this flu than actually did.
> 
> I don't trust the tests and I don't trust the stats. If someone can demonstrate to me the tests are legitimate and how they know that, it would be helpful.


Well, while you're playing epidemiologist on the internet, I personally know two doctors in NYC who are dealing with this right now, and they're not part of any conspiracy and they're not making up stories of people dying in their hospitals, people waiting desperately for ICU beds to open up, people struggling to breathe despite everything the hospital can do for them.

I also know people who are at high risk because of their age and underlying health issues (like diabetes, heart disease, and lungs damaged from some weird unusual kind of pneumonia), not to mention that their political allies have been misleading them about the danger this poses to them -- and if they get this and then I find out that someone in their lives who should've known better had not taken reasonable precautions, well, there would be a problem.

Don't be that person.

People's lives are at stake and you have a responsibility to act with that in mind. Be as flippantly conspiratorial as you want on the internet, but act responsibly in real life.


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> I didn't say the doctors are imagining things I gave another explanation which you ignored. I also never said this was a "mild flu", I think it is a rather strong respiratory flu that is being hyped. Through the use of so called covid-19 tests that actually test for _all_ coronaviruses and aren't virus-amount specific, it can be made to look like many more people died from this flu than actually did.
> 
> I don't trust the tests and I don't trust the stats. If someone can demonstrate to me the tests are legitimate and how they know that, it would be helpful.


Flu? Being hyped?

Trust me, no one can demonstrate anything to YOU.

This post infuriated me. In 2020 in the Western World there is no excuse for anyone to post like this.


----------



## eljr

science said:


> Well, while you're playing epidemiologist on the internet, I personally know two doctors in NYC who are dealing with this right now, and they're not part of any conspiracy and they're not making up stories of people dying in their hospitals, people waiting desperately for ICU beds to open up, people struggling to breathe despite everything the hospital can do for them.
> 
> I also know people who are at high risk because of their age and underlying health issues (like diabetes, heart disease, and lungs damaged from some weird unusual kind of pneumonia), not to mention that their political allies have been misleading them about the danger this poses to them -- and if they get this and then I find out that someone in their lives who should've known better had not taken reasonable precautions, well, there would be a problem.
> 
> Don't be that person.
> 
> People's lives are at stake and you have a responsibility to act with that in mind. Be as flippantly conspiratorial as you want on the internet, but act responsibly in real life.


It is amazing how many people refuse to act for the greater good.... they don't understand that what benefits the species benefits them.

As a side bar, let me share. Years back I spoke to a piece of wood. It had no effect on the timber I engaged. 
I then resolved to place my energies elsewhere.


----------



## eljr

Bigbang said:


> Keep in mind that the President speaks in a rather unusual way.


He speaks in macro without the ability to qualify and quantify.

In other words, he speaks hollow words to the astute.


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> true mortality from COVID will be seen only ex post, after the pandemic is over, by *comparing mortality before the crisis and during and after the crisis*. For example if in 2018 600.000 Italians died and in 2020 it was 1.200.000, we will know.
> As for now, everyone with at least 3 brain cells can see, that something extraordinary is happening, when the hospital care in Italy is almost collapsed and there are not enough ventilators. it is probably waste of breath trying explaining it to you. You are trapped in some conspiratorial reality denying bubble.


This comparison has already been done for February and the numbers were scary.


----------



## science

My astrologer told me that if we meditate with strong compassionate intent, the force of our love will shoot the virus out into space where the cosmic rays of the sun can kill it naturally and peacefully. 

But just in case he's wrong, I'll practice social distancing....


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> I think it is a regular flu being hyped. The scam is primarily in the testing.
> 
> When the founding fathers of the U.S.A wrote the constitution they were not oblivious to the existence of flus, viruses and pandemics. There is nothing in the constitution that suggests that all of our rights and freedoms get thrown in the trash as soon as the government tells you there is a serious pandemic going on. The founding fathers clearly felt that government itself is the biggest threat to people, to freedom and to liberty. Not viruses, not terrorists, not immigrants or anything else. No they were not all perfect men, but they tried to set up ground rules that would allow for a high degree of freedom and prosperity.
> 
> It is very disturbing to me how most people will just go along with this and even start trying to police each other over this LIE. I see posters in this thread trying to police each other, and loving it, they are rolling around in the fear porn and letting it wash over them!
> 
> The people who fought for the freedoms people got to enjoy for a time in the U.S. would be rolling in their graves right now. It is because those people stood up for freedom that we were able to enjoy a somewhat free country for as long as we did. That is quickly being destroyed and the early American spirit that valued freedom has taken it for granted and people have become decadent, complacent and weak. That is what is so concerning about this.
> 
> This is how countries are destroyed. The deep state is an international group and has no allegiance to any specific country.
> 
> "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
> 
> - Benjamin Franklin


mind melding post

Did you say something in another post about "mind control?"


----------



## Bigbang

I think it is important to grasp conversation about events around coronavirus and more helpful tips to navigate the issues based on locale. I want to bring up some things I see. 

Don't do what I do--do what I say. In spite of people making signs and posters, I have pointed out to the very people they have failed in what they are trying to accomplish. Unfortunately, people think their family/friends/people like them are immune to the virus as they are and are in close proximity. The enemy are those other people walking around spreading the virus. So unless a person is acting as if they have it and trying not to pass it on (as in your own family--get it), the mistakes will pile up.

Another person says "I hope I do not get it." I say to them, you may already have it and do not know it and everyone else thinks the same thing. And because you are thinking you do not have it yet, as everyone else does you let your guard down. Remember one does not need to feel sick (yet) to get the virus or pass it on. I cannot state if I have or did have as some people do not get sick. 

I have learned something (again) is we humans are still divisive and allow the danger of close contact with those we think we can trust (not) and feel as they are part of us. Think of it this way...you pick your nose and feel no disgust. The thought of seeing someone else do the act and you feel repugnant. Same in looking at people around you, we accept people familiar to us as ok to touch again and again and those we know not as "the enemy" to stay away from so we do not get sick.

Unfortunately the truth is probably we are our own worst enemy.


----------



## mmsbls

Bigbang said:


> I think it is important to grasp conversation about events around coronavirus and more helpful tips to navigate the issues based on locale. I want to bring up some things I see.
> 
> Don't do what I do--do what I say. In spite of people making signs and posters, I have pointed out to the very people they have failed in what they are trying to accomplish. Unfortunately, people think their family/friends/people like them are immune to the virus as they are and are in close proximity. The enemy are those other people walking around spreading the virus. So unless a person is acting as if they have it and trying not to pass it own (as in your own family--get it), the mistakes will pile up.
> 
> Another person says "I hope I do not get it." I say to them, you may already have it and do not know it and everyone else thinks the same thing. And because you are thinking you do not have it yet, as everyone else does you let your guard down. Remember one does not need to feel sick (yet) to get the virus or pass it on. I cannot state if I have or did have as some people do not get sick.
> 
> I have learned something (again) is we humans are still divisive and allow the danger of close contact with those we think we can trust (not) and feel as they are part of us. Think of it this way...you pick your nose and feel no disgust. The thought of seeing someone else do the act and you feel repugnant. Same in looking at people around you, we accept people familiar to us as ok to touch again and again and those we know not as "the enemy" to stay away from so we do not get sick.
> 
> Unfortunately the truth is probably we are our own worst enemy.


Where I live, it's relatively easy to remain away from others (6 feet or really much further). The only exception that everyone must deal with is the grocery store. We try to go once a week. We stay away from others in the store as much as possible, but that's very hard at times. We will start using masks now at the store given the new guidelines. We were very lucky that a friend's husband is a doctor who had access to masks back in early February.

I grew up in New York City and imagine how difficult perfect social distancing would be there. Living in a large apartment building with elevators alone would be a challenge much less having to travel to essential work on the subway and grocery shop.

Anyway, I think the first goal is to get the number of additional people infected from 1 infected person (R0) below 1. Once this is accomplished, the number of new infections will continually decrease hopefully to a very low number. The model I posted from University of Washington assumes this will happen, and new infections, deaths, and hospitalizations all go to zero by August 1. I'm guessing that will be at least somewhat optimistic, but even very low numbers would be wonderful.


----------



## Guest

mmsbls said:


> Anyway, I think the first goal is to get the number of additional people infected from 1 infected person (R0) below 1. Once this is accomplished, the number of new infections will continually decrease hopefully to a very low number. The model I posted from University of Washington assumes this will happen, and new infections, deaths, and hospitalizations all go to zero by August 1. I'm guessing that will be at least somewhat optimistic, but even very low numbers would be wonderful.


Going to zero won't happen, but perhaps they can get to the point that there are few enough infections that they can be isolated and individual contacts traced, like they could have done back in February if they had gotten ahead of this.


----------



## starthrower

Art Rock said:


> The dictator of Belarus said that there is no virus. I can't see it flying in the air, so it is not there. Continue doing what you normally do.


Not far from what Trump was saying a little over a month ago. "The Coronavirus will disappear like a miracle." By April he presumed. Now we should be happy if only a 100,000 people die. Alone while their families are at home in anguish.


----------



## Jacck

mmsbls said:


> Anyway, I think the first goal is to get the number of additional people infected from 1 infected person (R0) below 1. Once this is accomplished, the number of new infections will continually decrease hopefully to a very low number. The model I posted from University of Washington assumes this will happen, and new infections, deaths, and hospitalizations all go to zero by August 1. I'm guessing that will be at least somewhat optimistic, but even very low numbers would be wonderful.


we did accomplish to lower R0 from 2.6 to 1.3 in my country (social distancing measures very early + mandatory masks from the beginning). 
https://www.idnes.cz/technet/veda/k...da_mla/foto/MLA826af6_VlivOpatreninaR0104.png
the graph is self-explanatory. The problem is what to do next. How long can we continue these strict measures? Our government is also playing with the idea of a controlled herd immunity like they do in Germany. But they need to know how many are asymptomatic, soo they are now sampling 1000 people randomly in Prague to figure it out. They do the same in Germany. Maybe there is no other way than to assume, that 70% will get infected (like Merkel assumed from the start) and we have only control about how fast that is going to happen, if it will be controlled or uncontrolled like in Italy. They are also implementing "clever quarantines" like in South Korea, ie they will use cell phone tracing to warn any contacts of an infected person etc.


----------



## DaveM

tdc said:


> No, not everyone is in on it, I've already shown you that many people disagree. When much of the media is owned by a small percentage of people it is not that difficult to circulate certain information and drown out other voices. Things get compartmentalized. Did you know that during the Manhattan Project virtually no one except for the people at the top knew that they were working on an atomic bomb? By using compartmentalization and excuses like 'national security' it is possible to conceal from the public a lot. Not everyone in all countries involved needs to be in on it, not even close. One just needs mostly ignorant people and to have their operatives in certain key positions of government and other institutions.
> 
> I already showed statistics indicating something like up to 440,000 people in the United States die yearly due to medical accidents. Doctors are prescribing all kinds of questionable medications. They get paid by pharmaceutical companies to promote certain things. So when these people are given a test for covid-19, most medical professionals are going to use these tests unquestioningly. There will be a few doctors and scientists who raise questions (as they already have) but most are ignoring these people or just don't know of their existence largely because they don't see much (if any) media coverage of them.


I have learned that people with this perspective have a hardwired headset. Nothing anyone says here will change your mind. You probably have a list of many things that you consider to be secret nefarious agendas that you can trot out whenever. Still, just for giggles I'll respond to your points.

1. For a conspiracy -whereby a fictitious highly contagious coronavirus pandemic is actually an aggressive bad flu- to work would require virtually everybody in the medical/scientific community in every country to be in on it. There are simple tests for flu. There are vaccines and drugs for flu. If everyone wasn't in on it, smart people somewhere would be crying out, "This is the damned flu!"

2. Of course, very few people working in the Manhattan Project knew the details of what they were working on. What would you expect during WW2? A full-disclosure policy?

3. You have no way of having any perspective on medical errors. Yes, any errors are too many especially for the patient who dies. However, do you have any idea how many millions upon millions of medical procedures are performed every year without lethal errors? Do you think that someone who works in a surgical environment in a hospital over decades sees people dying left and right from errors instead of seeing people getting their eyesight back (cataracts), mobility back (hip and knee replacement), cancers cured etc. every day?

4. Do you expect perfection when it comes to tests? Do think the tests themselves are a scam? The development of this kind of testing usually takes several months. Of course there are going to be errors. However, it didn't help that our government dragged its feet on testing and hasn't implemented it efficiently.

However, none of this will convince you otherwise, but perhaps the above will persuade others not to believe information from the alternative universe.


----------



## mountmccabe

KenOC said:


> This is an interesting site. It projects total coronavirus deaths in the US at 84,000. That's way less than the Spanish flu (500-600,000) and US deaths in WWII (400,000). It's a bit more than US deaths in the Korean and Vietnam wars combined.


It's worth noting that the projection is already, 14 hours later, up to 94,000 for the USA, with a range of 41k to 177k. It also assumes social distancing measures (list below) through the end of May, including those measures being implemented within seven days in states where they are not yet implemented.

Stay at home type order
Educational facilities closed
Non-essential services closed
Travel severely limited

I don't think any states are marked as having implemented travel restrictions, though many have done the first three (such as here in Washington, and California, which is coming up on 2 weeks with 3/4 implemented). While other states, such as Florida, Texas, and Utah, have only closed educational facilities. That is to say, the models are showing what COULD happen, but, politically, is unlikely.

I am expecting that 94k number to continue to rise. Many people are staying home, and most states have implemented restrictions, but this isn't an individual or even local problem.


----------



## Bigbang

eljr said:


> He speaks in macro without the ability to qualify and quantify.
> 
> In other words, he speaks hollow words to the astute.


Something like that...I prefer to stay off the radar.....


----------



## Jacck

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html
so you can pretty much multiply the number of infected in each country by 2, or even possibly by 3 (because many symptomatic were not tested)


----------



## mmsbls

mountmccabe said:


> It's worth noting that the projection is already, 14 hours later, up to 94,000 for the USA, with a range of 41k to 177k. It also assumes social distancing measures (list below) through the end of May, including those measures being implemented within seven days in states where they are not yet implemented.
> 
> Stay at home type order
> Educational facilities closed
> Non-essential services closed
> Travel severely limited
> 
> I don't think any states are marked as having implemented travel restrictions, though many have done the first three (such as here in Washington, and California, which is coming up on 2 weeks with 3/4 implemented). While other states, such as Florida, Texas, and Utah, have only closed educational facilities. That is to say, the models are showing what COULD happen, but, politically, is unlikely.
> 
> I am expecting that 94k number to continue to rise. Many people are staying home, and most states have implemented restrictions, but this isn't an individual or even local problem.


Yes, Dr. Murray in the interview about the model made it very clear about the assumptions and said every day they are not met can increase infection and death total significantly. I would be shocked to see actual new infections or deaths drop to zero by August, but I would love to see new infections continuously decrease. The lower the number of new infections, the easier it will be to counter the virus.

I assume they did runs of the model where their assumptions were varied, but I don't see results for these. It would be nice to see some sensitivity results are uncertainty bounds. I'm not sure exactly which models have been used to project 100,000 - 240,000 deaths in the US, but I suspect this is a reasonable estimate of what to expect over the next year or so.


----------



## MaxKellerman

Jacck said:


> Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html
> so you can pretty much multiply the number of infected in each country by 2, or even possibly by 3 (because many symptomatic were not tested)


It's interesting -- I live near Orlando, Florida, and in late Februrary my mom and sisters came to visit, so of course we had to spend some time at the Disneyworld theme parks. At this point, from what I recall the concerns of coronavirius were definitely growing, but everything we heard talked about a few outbreaks on cruise ships here in the U.S. and perhaps a few other locales on the west coast, but for the most part everyone was still living and acting completetely normally.

Now I have a daughter who is 5 years old and she had been sick with the flu a few weeks earlier. Well anyways, again in late Februrary after visiting the theme parks she started to develop a cough, and then a fever. We took her to her pediatrician who said it was probably a relapse of the flu and prescribed some tamiflu for her. The days went by and her cough grew worse, her fever wouldn't go away, even with the tamiflu. Finally we took her to urgent care and they told us she had developed a case of pneumonia and put her on antibiotics.

Of course a day or two after that myself, my wife, and my mom and sisters who were visiting from out of state all started developing symptoms as well. This was probably early March at this point. We had coughs but no runny noses or anything like the typical cold, and sore throats. My symptoms were pretty mild, but at one point I completely lost my voice for about a day. My wife on the other hand also developed a fever and was feeling much worse than I did -- there was even one day where she spit up some blood with her phlegm whille coughing. She is a cook at a restaurant in the Disney resorts, so of course they are very strict about not letting employees work hile sick and she went to a doctor right away to get checked out and get on medication so she could get back to work. The doctor simply diagnosed her with a throat infection and prescribed some antibiotics for her, and after 3 or 4 more days of feeling lousy my wife recovered and went back to work. My mom and sisters had flown back to California by then, but they told me that they were wiped out from the sickness for a few days, one of my sisters also having a fever, a sore throat and having to call out of work for a few days.

At the time we didn't even really consider the possibilty of it being the coronavirus. The doctors never mentioned it, no one was tested, and at the time I don't even know if there were any confirmed cases in the state. Perhaps there had been a few cases revolving around some cruise ships near Tampa and Miami, but thats it. I can only imagine how many stories there are out there like ours, and we may never have any idea if we had it or not.


----------



## Jacck

mmsbls said:


> Yes, Dr. Murray in the interview about the model made it very clear about the assumptions and said every day they are not met can increase infection and death total significantly. I would be shocked to see actual new infections or deaths drop to zero by August, but I would love to see new infections continuously decrease. The lower the number of new infections, the easier it will be to counter the virus. .


I wonder how he predicts the peak in the models. If R0 is bigger than 1, the infections will continute to grow, unless herd immunity stops them.


----------



## mountmccabe

mmsbls said:


> Yes, Dr. Murray in the interview about the model made it very clear about the assumptions and said every day they are not met can increase infection and death total significantly. I would be shocked to see actual new infections or deaths drop to zero by August, but I would love to see new infections continuously decrease. The lower the number of new infections, the easier it will be to counter the virus.
> 
> I assume they did runs of the model where their assumptions were varied, but I don't see results for these. It would be nice to see some sensitivity results are uncertainty bounds. I'm not sure exactly which models have been used to project 100,000 - 240,000 deaths in the US, but I suspect this is a reasonable estimate of what to expect over the next year or so.


You are more optimistic than I am. I hope I'm wrong.


----------



## KenOC

Regarding the conspiracy theories discussed on this thread, "Three may keep a secret if two of them are dead." - Benjamin Franklin


----------



## starthrower

I hear there is going to be a fire sale!


----------



## DaveM

MaxKellerman said:


> Perhaps there had been a few cases revolving around some cruise ships near Tampa and Miami, but thats it. I can only imagine how many stories there are out there like ours, and we may never have any idea if we had it or not...


Interesting story and I'm sure that there are many others like it. I hope that we will eventually have a reliable antibody test so that we can know if we have contracted covid-19 in the past.


----------



## mmsbls

Jacck said:


> I wonder how he predicts the peak in the models. If R0 is bigger than 1, the infections will continute to grow, unless herd immunity stops them.


I assume R0 has to be less than 1, and it must get there a week or more before the peak of deaths. Actually I thought people die 2-4 weeks after showing positive test results so they must assume R0 has been less than 1 for a week or more in some places. Obviously we're still showing increasing infections, but that only means that we have test results for those people.

So I think they are assuming that the conditions they list must be in place for all parts of the US very soon and that those conditions will be strictly followed through May. If those conditions are followed, they assume R0 will be less than 1.


----------



## mmsbls

mountmccabe said:


> You are more optimistic than I am. I hope I'm wrong.


I don't know that I am more optimistic, but I would love to see infections and deaths drop. I think that can and will happen, but I don't know what the curves will actually look like (i.e. how long it will take to drop significantly and get close to zero).


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> true mortality from COVID will be seen only ex post, after the pandemic is over, by comparing mortality before the crisis and during and after the crisis. For example if in 2018 600.000 Italians died and in 2020 it was 1.200.000, we will know.
> As for now, everyone with at least 3 brain cells can see, that something extraordinary is happening, when the hospital care in Italy is almost collapsed and there are not enough ventilators. it is probably waste of breath trying explaining it to you. You are trapped in some conspiratorial reality denying bubble.


Even then the stats will be potentially misleading.

COVID-19 may well kill people that were destined to die from something else anyways.


----------



## mountmccabe

MaxKellerman said:


> At the time we didn't even really consider the possibilty of it being the coronavirus. The doctors never mentioned it, no one was tested, and at the time I don't even know if there were any confirmed cases in the state. Perhaps there had been a few cases revolving around some cruise ships near Tampa and Miami, but thats it. I can only imagine how many stories there are out there like ours, and we may never have any idea if we had it or not.


Thank you for sharing. I am sure there are many. I live in Seattle, and have recently lived in the SF Bay Area and NYC, and have a lot of friends in hot spots. Some have been seriously ill, but thankfully none sick enough to be hospitalized so none were able to be tested. I know plenty of other people who have been experiencing what could be seasonal allergies or other illnesses, or just very mild symptoms. It's really, really maddening.

The first confirmed cases in Florida were March 1, one each in Manatee and Hillsborough counties. But of course as your story shows, "confirmed cases" mean very little.


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> Even then the stats will be potentially misleading.
> 
> COVID-19 may well kill people that were destined to die from something else anyways.


you will need to substract some baseline mortality from the actual mortality to get the COVID mortality. The baseline mortality is what would expected in a normal year, and is obtained from extrapolation from previous years


----------



## DaveM

A new small study of hydroxychloroquine involving 62 patients has been completed in China. 31 were given the drug along with ‘usual care’. 31 were given just ‘usual care’. The treatment lasted 5 days. The average age was 45 and these were mild-moderate cases with cat scan evidence of pneumonia.

On average, coughing and fever resolved a day or 2 earlier in the drug-treated arm and pneumonia resolved earlier in 25 of the 31 treated with the drug vs. 17 of 31 of those without the drug.


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> A new small study of hydroxychloroquine involving 62 patients has been completed in China. 31 were given the drug along with 'usual care'. 31 were given just 'usual care'. The treatment lasted 5 days. The average age was 45 and these were mild-moderate cases with cat scan evidence of pneumonia.
> 
> On average, coughing and fever resolved a day or 2 earlier in the drug-treated arm and pneumonia resolved earlier in 25 of the 31 treated with the drug vs. 17 of 31 of those without the drug.


so nothing to get excited about. It likely cannot help the ARDS patients.


----------



## mountmccabe

mmsbls said:


> I don't know that I am more optimistic, but I would love to see infections and deaths drop. I think that can and will happen, but I don't know what the curves will actually look like (i.e. how long it will take to drop significantly and get close to zero).


To be clear, I would also love to see infections and deaths drop. It will happen, eventually.

And some positive news; one of the states I mentioned being open was Florida. The governor has now issued a stay at home type order, effective Thursday night. It has a lot of exceptions, as do many, but it should still help.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> so nothing to get excited about. It likely cannot help the ARDS patients.


Possibly not those already on a ventilator, but it may have promise for those with pneumonia who might have ended up on a ventilator. The drug prevents the virus from entering cells in vitro and we already know that it is an anti inflammatory which might minimize the inflammatory response that sometimes is worse than the infection.

If it turns out to reduce things going from bad to worse in people, I'm excited.


----------



## Guest

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/910136257665290240


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/910136257665290240


What does that have to do with coronavirus?


----------



## eljr

Christabel said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/910136257665290240


what is this link about?

What is your opinion on the subject?

Why did you choose to post this link?


----------



## eljr

science said:


> If we hold it to 85k deaths, that's really not a bad result considering the possibilities.
> 
> Of course it's tragic for 85k families, but it's still better than 100k or more.


sadly, there is no way in hell we will keep the death toll anywhere near a mere 100,000.

Just look at the numbers and realize this thing is in it's infancy here. Only NYC is in adolescence.

When I think what my god damned elected official told me...

the horrible reaction in this still patchwork approach.

if you can't tell, I am furious.


----------



## eljr

AeolianStrains said:


> But it will inevitably go up. It's also awful considering the time difference. We should have been in a much, much better position now than 1918!


we could have been... that is what is so upsetting

quick cash today capitalism has made this infinitely worse here in the USA


----------



## eljr

DaveM said:


> I can never figure out how anybody can rationalize all the conflicting evidence that makes such a conspiracy theory impossible to the point of believing it hook, line and sinker.


I could explain but that would lead to a thread disruption by the mods.


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> Possibly not those already on a ventilator, but it may have promise for those with pneumonia who might have ended up on a ventilator. The drug prevents the virus from entering cells in vitro and we already know that it is an anti inflammatory which might minimize the inflammatory response that sometimes is worse than the infection.
> 
> If it turns out to reduce things going from bad to worse in people, I'm excited.


Exactly.

25 out of 31 is about 80%, which is much better than 55% (17 out of 31). It's obviously good news...


----------



## eljr

pianozach said:


> *PSA of the Day*
> 
> _"You know, you can use a scarf,"_ Trump said Tuesday at a White House press conference. _"A lot of people have scarves. And you can use a scarf. A scarf would be very good."_
> 
> Let that sink in. The President says, _"A scarf would be very good."_


This.

It is wild that people accept an answer like this. An answer that would get you an F in middle school.


----------



## eljr

Art Rock said:


> The dictator of Belarus said that there is no virus. I can't see it flying in the air, so it is not there. Continue doing what you normally do.


omg, no wonder my ancestors fled the country


----------



## elgar's ghost

Belarus's football league is still up and running as well, the only one in Europe that still is, as I understand.


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> I already showed statistics indicating something like up to 440,000 people in the United States die yearly due to medical accidents. Doctors are prescribing all kinds of questionable medications..


This is a MASSIVE PROBLEM. That said, the number is 250,000 not 440,000. (I have seen this 440 number)


----------



## pianozach

eljr said:


> This.
> 
> It is wild that people accept an answer like this. An answer that would get you an F in middle school.


Indeed.

I content myself with the highlights from the President's Daily Press Conference/Campaign Rally/Don Rickles Insult-O-Meter.

Yesterday (or was it the day before?) he said he knows South Korea _"better than anybody"_.

_"I know South Korea better than anybody. It's a very tight.... Do you know how many people are in Seoul? Do you know how big the city of Seoul is? 38 million people. Bigger than anything we have. 38 million people all tightly wound together." _

Of course, Seoul has a population of just under 10 million. Maybe he was thinking of Tokyo, which does have a population of 38 million, but isn't in South Korea. Or maybe he had just checked the Wikipedia entry for Seoul, where the elevation is listed as 38 m. Either way, his attention to detail is "on par".

He's like a random *NonFact-Of-The-Day* generator.


----------



## KenOC

eljr said:


> This.
> 
> It is wild that people accept an answer like this. An answer that would get you an F in middle school.


If you follow the news, you know that the CDC is now seriously considering advising people to wear cloth face coverings while out and about. Absent a mask, a scarf might do well.


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html
> so you can pretty much multiply the number of infected in each country by 2, or even possibly by 3 (because many symptomatic were not tested)


the official multiplier is not by 3 but rather by 9 or 10.


----------



## eljr

pianozach said:


> Even then the stats will be potentially misleading.
> 
> COVID-19 may well kill people that were destined to die from something else anyways.


you think some of us are not destined to die?


----------



## Room2201974

mountmccabe said:


> To be clear, I would also love to see infections and deaths drop. It will happen, eventually.
> 
> And some positive news; one of the states I mentioned being open was Florida. The governor has now issued a stay at home type order, effective Thursday night. It has a lot of exceptions, as do many, but it should still help.


There are consequences for electing science denying knuckledraggers*. Usually they don't show up in the death toll. A later flattening of the curve will mean more deaths in the Funshine state.

Down 2-1 in the gold medal ice hockey game during the 1980 Olympics, famed hockey coach Herb Brooks walked into the locker room after the second period and gave one of the most memorable and inspiring - and shortest pep talks ever to his players. "Gentlemen, if you lose this game, you will take it to your [email protected]#$ing graves. Your [email protected]#$ing graves." Then he walked out.

Sounds like an appropriate epitaph to me.

*"I'm shocked, shocked ladies and gentlemen to find out there is six feet of phosphate muck on the bottom of Lake O. Where oh, where did it come from??????? "


----------



## eljr

pianozach said:


> Indeed.
> 
> I content myself with the highlights from the President's Daily Press Conference/Campaign Rally/Don Rickles Insult-O-Meter.
> 
> Yesterday (or was it the day before?) he said he knows South Korea _"better than anybody"_.
> 
> _"I know South Korea better than anybody. It's a very tight.... Do you know how many people are in Seoul? Do you know how big the city of Seoul is?* 38 million people. Bigger than anything we have*. 38 million people all tightly wound together." _
> 
> Of course, Seoul has a population of just under 10 million. Maybe he was thinking of Tokyo, which does have a population of 38 million, but isn't in South Korea. Or maybe he had just checked the Wikipedia entry for Seoul, where the elevation is listed as 38 m. Either way, his attention to detail is "on par".
> 
> He's like a random *NonFact-Of-The-Day* generator.


I caught this too.

He is such a ***% up that no one even spoke to it or corrected it. This kind of mistake is nothing compared to how little he knows.


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> If you follow the news, you know that the CDC is now seriously considering advising people to wear cloth face coverings while out and about. Absent a mask, a scarf might do well.


He would get an F in middle school. Read what he said.


----------



## KenOC

eljr said:


> He would get an F in middle school. Read what he said.


He said, "You know, you can use a scarf," Trump said Tuesday at a White House press conference. "A lot of people have scarves. And you can use a scarf. A scarf would be very good."

Maybe I'm missing your point. It seems there is a significant body of opinion in the CDC that agrees with him.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> He said, "You know, you can use a scarf," Trump said Tuesday at a White House press conference. "A lot of people have scarves. And you can use a scarf. A scarf would be very good."
> 
> Maybe I'm missing your point. It seems there is a significant body of opinion in the CDC that agrees with him.


*"A scarf would be very good."*

No, a scarf is a poor substitute for a proper facemask. It's not a scientifically recommended piece of PPE.

It's a stopgap measure to use in absence of proper equipment.

This is analogous to saying that a pocket knife and part of a ball point pen is "very good" for a tracheotomy. If you have nothing else . . . you're in the middle of the desert, or stuck in an elevator, or the paramedics are more than 2 minutes away, well, yeah, it'll do.

I think I like this exchange even more:

Peter Alexander, White House correspondent at NBC News, asked the US president: _*"What do you say to Americans, who are watching you right now, who are scared?"*_

Erupting in anger, *Trump* unleashed a tirade: _*"I say that you're a terrible reporter. That's what I say. I think it's a very nasty question and I think it's a very bad signal that you're putting out to the American people."*_

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ronavirus-question-attack-reporter-over-fears


----------



## KenOC

pianozach said:


> *"A scarf would be very good."*
> 
> No, a scarf is a poor substitute for a proper facemask. It's not a scientifically recommended piece of PPE.


Hamburger is a poor substitute for Chateaubriand with béarnaise sauce, but in times of famine I'll eat it and be glad I have it. I might even say it's "very good".


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Hamburger is a poor substitute for Chateaubriand with béarnaise sauce, but in times of famine I'll eat it and be glad I have it. I might even say it's "very good".


A clever but inappropriate analogy.

Here's some that are better.

If you're marooned on a desert island, and you're fresh out of canned tuna, you might be willing to accept a raw fish. It's not "very good", and you run a serious risk of food poisoning.

You're stranded in Donner Pass, and the food has run out. The Donner party found a substitute source of food . . . perhaps not "very good", but a substitute nonetheless.

You want to ride your motorcycle, but cannot find your helmet. Instead, you tape several layers of bubble-wrap to your noggin. It's a 'substitute', but not really "very good".


----------



## KenOC

pianozach said:


> A clever but inappropriate analogy.
> 
> Here's some that are better.
> 
> If you're marooned on a desert island, and you're fresh out of canned tuna, you might be willing to accept a raw fish. It's not "very good", and you run a serious risk of food poisoning.
> 
> You're stranded in Donner Pass, and the food has run out. The Donner party found a substitute source of food . . . perhaps not "very good", but a substitute nonetheless.
> 
> You want to ride your motorcycle, but cannot find your helmet. Instead, you tape several layers of bubble-wrap to your noggin. It's a 'substitute', but not really "very good".


In all cases, better than doing nothing and whining that life isn't perfect. In any event, at least one survivor of the Donner party recalled that the diet was quite tasty.


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> Hamburger is a poor substitute for Chateaubriand with béarnaise sauce, but in times of famine I'll eat it and be glad I have it. I might even say it's "very good".


the scarf is less the point than is his roundhouse speak


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> He said, "You know, you can use a scarf," Trump said Tuesday at a White House press conference. "A lot of people have scarves. And you can use a scarf. *A scarf would be very good.*"
> 
> Maybe I'm missing your point. It seems there is a significant body of opinion in the CDC that agrees with him.


It is not at all very good, not at all. It is a last resort substitute. 
Come on Ken, don't be like this. You know better.


----------



## KenOC

BTW, the "*scarf issue*" is discussed in a BBC story today. "There is currently a shortage of N95 and surgical masks in the US, with healthcare workers saying they have been told to reuse masks several times, or use bandanas when masks are not available."

I utterly fail to understand how people can sneer at advice to do what we can with what we have. But perhaps it's merely TDS.

Also, fresh raw tuna is unlikely to cause food poisoning. Where I live, we eat it by the ton. Mercury poisoning is, of course, another story.


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> BTW, the "*scarf issue*" is discussed in a BBC story today. "There is currently a shortage of N95 and surgical masks in the US, with healthcare workers saying they have been told to reuse masks several times, or use bandanas when masks are not available."
> 
> I utterly fail to understand how people can sneer at advice to do what we can with what we have.
> 
> Also, fresh raw tuna is unlikely to cause food poisoning. Where I live, we eat it by the ton. Mercury poisoning is, of course, another story.


you are purposely missing the point


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> *"A scarf would be very good."*
> 
> No, a scarf is a poor substitute for a proper facemask. It's not a scientifically recommended piece of PPE.
> 
> It's a stopgap measure to use in absence of proper equipment.
> 
> This is analogous to saying that a pocket knife and part of a ball point pen is "very good" for a tracheotomy. If you have nothing else . . . you're in the middle of the desert, or stuck in an elevator, or the paramedics are more than 2 minutes away, well, yeah, it'll do.
> 
> I think I like this exchange even more:
> 
> Peter Alexander, White House correspondent at NBC News, asked the US president: _*"What do you say to Americans, who are watching you right now, who are scared?"*_
> 
> Erupting in anger, *Trump* unleashed a tirade: _*"I say that you're a terrible reporter. That's what I say. I think it's a very nasty question and I think it's a very bad signal that you're putting out to the American people."*_
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ronavirus-question-attack-reporter-over-fears


It's just what you'd expect from 'The Guardian'. The glass is always half empty. Always.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> What does that have to do with coronavirus?


Have you been asleep? It's the generational spat that has arisen about the pandemic; the younger generation doesn't like the economies being trashed to keep oldies alive!! And the cartoon captures the zeitgeist.


----------



## senza sordino

As I understand it, wearing a scarf is or homemade face mask is not replacing an N95 face mask, it is to prevent you from touching your face. Wearing a scarf or homemade face mask doesn’t mean you can do as you like: not practice social distancing, not wash your hands, treat Covid 19 patients, carry on as we did before the pandemic. That’s how I read these guidelines. Of course, if you wear a scarf or homemade face mask but you’re constantly adjusting it with your hands why bother wearing one?


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Have you been asleep? It's the generational spat that has arisen about the pandemic; the younger generation doesn't like the economies being trashed to keep oldies alive!! And the cartoon captures the zeitgeist.


Are you dreaming? The cartoon and all the comments below it are dated Sept. 2017 and appear to be Brexit-related. No mention of coronavirus. If you're talking about the separate section under 'More Tweets' then your link is inaccurate.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> In all cases, better than doing nothing and whining that life isn't perfect. In any event, at least one survivor of the Donner party recalled that the diet *was quite tasty*.


Mmmmm . . . *"very good"*.


----------



## science

From the "there may be hope" files -- 

South Korea continues its recovery. They've been having about 50 more recoveries than new cases per day and fewer than ten deaths per day, and the cumulative survival rate continues to rise: 99% of currently known cases are considered mild. Almost all businesses have opened back up (South Korea never really closed everything down), although schools are not re-opening for at least another week -- probably several weeks. 

It's just a matter of time for countries like the US to catch up. 

At this point, from a global POV, the US looks like the worst in absolute numbers but we have a long way to go to catch up to Italy and Spain in per capita numbers. 

Watch Brazil in the coming weeks. Bolsonaro literally told his people to "die like men," dismissing the virus as "a mere cold." A lot of the people there live in very big and dense cities, and they're fairly social - often kissing each other when they greet, for example. 

Also in global news, Malaysia's government is facing a bit of a backlash for asking wives not to nag their husbands during the crisis.


----------



## KenOC

senza sordino said:


> As I understand it, wearing a scarf is or homemade face mask is not replacing an N95 face mask, it is to prevent you from touching your face. Wearing a scarf or homemade face mask doesn't mean you can do as you like: not practice social distancing, not wash your hands, treat Covid 19 patients, carry on as we did before the pandemic. That's how I read these guidelines. Of course, if you wear a scarf or homemade face mask but you're constantly adjusting it with your hands why bother wearing one?


I've read that wearing a surgical mask for instance (or any other type of cloth mask, like a bandana) may be of little use in protecting you. But if you're a symptomless spreader, which seems to be quite common, it can reduce the threat you pose to others. That is certainly useful in slowing the spread of the disease.


----------



## eljr

Christabel said:


> Have you been asleep? It's the generational spat that has arisen about the pandemic; the younger generation doesn't like the economies being trashed to keep oldies alive!! And the cartoon captures the zeitgeist.


why would you post a link with no commentary?

a message board is for messages not to be redirected


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> I've read that wearing a surgical mask for instance (or any other type of cloth mask, like a bandana) may be of little use in protecting you. But if you're a symptomless spreader, which seems to be quite common, it can reduce the threat you pose to others. That is certainly useful in slowing the spread of the disease.


Well, the story is now changing and it is rather frustrating. I always believed that masks could protect individual mask-wearers when at close quarters with other people and I can recall posting that in this thread more than once. But we were being told and almost everyone was buying the message that masks had no value except when worn by the infected.

It's true that at that time and even now, the concern was masks going to the public at the expense of healthcare workers. I get that, but why not be honest with people instead of concocting facts that had no proof behind them. Here's a quote from a Medscape article today:

"*The discounting of homemade cloth masks-whether padded or two-ply cotton-that followed could have come from a desire to reduce panic, conserve resources, or a lack of understanding of efficacy of masks made by various types of fabric. On the other hand, it could underscore misplaced American prejudice: Inexpensive double-thickness cloth masks are widely used in Southeast Asia. Many US physicians disparaged the practice as useless. This appraisal may be part of what has kept us from considering that masks protect not just others but ourselves.
*_
Data on efficacy of masks are scant, though evidence does suggest that masks reduce personal risk. The mode of transmission of high-attack-rate, fast-moving epidemics has been determined to be from respiratory droplets. Unless a cough is directly into the face of someone else, droplets and virus spread by that cough fall and then hang out on the surfaces on which they land. In public spaces, the sneeze/cough scenario with another individual in close range is all too possible.

Respiratory droplets have diameters in the range of 10 to 100 µm. The research studies looking at transmission have been about influenza, but the COVID-19 mechanism of spread is analogous.
*One study that examined the capacity for a range of types of cloth masks to filter particulate matter of 10 μm or less (PM10) found that four different types had filtering efficiency that ranged from 63% to 84%. Mind you, we care most about a diameter over PM10. But even for this very small droplet size, these masks filtered better than nothing.* As the SARS-CoV-2 virus lives on surfaces for hours to weeks, stopping the particles from landing on grocery aisles or other surfaces touched by multiple persons is even more critical."_


----------



## senza sordino

4883 people died of Covid-19 in the world today










47 245 people in total have died.


----------



## tortkis

I used to think only sick people need to wear masks, but according to this article, a surgical mask and even a home made tea cloth mask are effective to protect the wearer, while they are not so effective in the outward protection.

COVID-19: WHY WE SHOULD ALL WEAR MASKS - THERE IS NEW SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE by Sui Huang









_ "FIGURE 5. Filtering effect for small droplets (aerosols) by various masks; home-made of tea cloth, surgical mask (3M "Tie-on") and a FFP2 (N95) respirator mask. The numbers are scaled to the reference of 100 (source of droplets) for illustrative purposes, calculated from the PF (protection factor) values in Table 2 of van der Sande et al, 2007. Measurement was performed with a Portacount counter that registers particles in the air with sizes in the range between 0.02 and 1 micrometer at the end of a 3-hour wearing period with no physical activity. The number for the protection are medians of 7 (or 8) adult volunteers per group. Protection at the beginning of the test was similar for the Tea Cloth and Surgical mask, but for FFP2 the protection was double. Children experienced substantially less protection (see van der Sande et al 2007)"_


----------



## pianozach

Bring out your dead . . . .


----------



## Kieran

science said:


> From the "there may be hope" files --
> 
> South Korea continues its recovery. They've been having about 50 more recoveries than new cases per day and fewer than ten deaths per day, and the cumulative survival rate continues to rise: 99% of currently known cases are considered mild. Almost all businesses have opened back up (South Korea never really closed everything down), although schools are not re-opening for at least another week -- probably several weeks.


Science, I keep meaning to ask you, but I know you already answered maybe twelve dozen times already in the thread, and I'm too lazy to read the whole thing backwards :lol: but can you sum up briefly why South Korea has had such success with regards to the virus, and how this success can be repeated to the west?



science said:


> Also in global news, Malaysia's government is facing a bit of a backlash for asking wives not to nag their husbands during the crisis.


The backlash involves the rattling of knitting needles, wooden spoons and dishcloths :lol:


----------



## Kieran

An intersting article on how the data should be analysed:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-


----------



## Sad Al

> why South Korea has had such success with regards to the virus, and how this success can be repeated to the west?


North Korea has had even better success with regards to the virus, much better (no cases they say) - how this success can be repeated to the west?


----------



## elgar's ghost

If North Korea is anything to go by it's probably being very selective about who you let in and out and having limited dialogue with most of the outside world unless you want to do a bit of West-baiting sabre-rattling here and there while generally lying through your teeth about everything to do with the country itself.


----------



## Jacck

Sad Al said:


> North Korea has had even better success with regards to the virus, much better (no cases they say) - how this success can be repeated to the west?


I do not trust any information from North Korea, Russia and China. These countries are not known for their honesty.


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> An intersting article on how the data should be analysed:
> 
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-


BBC Future has a good article about the data too
Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ


----------



## science

Kieran said:


> Science, I keep meaning to ask you, but I know you already answered maybe twelve dozen times already in the thread, and I'm too lazy to read the whole thing backwards :lol: but can you sum up briefly why South Korea has had such success with regards to the virus, and how this success can be repeated to the west?


I think it's just testing and tracking. Korea has tested so many people, and when someone is found to have it, they're able to find just about everyone who's been exposed and test them too, so that almost every case is found and quarantined.

Culturally, fewer Koreans are anti-intellectual (their medical and political institutions are more trustworthy and Koreans have a lot of respect for science and expertise) so they've been more willing to wear masks and observe social distancing. The churches have been a little rebellious, but the wider society has been eager to apply pressure on the churches to confirm. There's more "you have to do your part" and less "I can do whatever I want" in people's attitudes. Relative to some cultures, they're also less physical -- acquaintances in Korea usually don't touch (let alone kiss) each other.

For now it looks like a successful strategy but I am not sure about the long term. I guess if the virus dies out in the world this will have worked, but it looks like this virus is here to stay -- countries like Brazil are just going to let it spread as wide as it can. I think that it might be too late in the USA as well. Maybe we started social distancing too late, and maybe the testing and tracking won't catch up. We'll see. But anyway, countries like Brazil will have many more people die but in the end they will have herd immunity. I don't know if Korea is going to achieve that as quickly. We'll wait to see that....


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> For now it looks like a successful strategy but I am not sure about the long term. I guess if the virus dies out in the world this will have worked, but it looks like this virus is here to stay -- countries like Brazil are just going to let it spread as wide as it can. I think that it might be too late in the USA as well. Maybe we started social distancing too late, and maybe the testing and tracking won't catch up. We'll see. But anyway, countries like Brazil will have many more people die but in the end they will have herd immunity. I don't know if Korea is going to achieve that as quickly. We'll wait to see that....


there are basically 3 possible strategies
1) contain and stop the virus, descease R0 below 1. Some societies might be able to achieve it, but other will certainly fail and will be future reservoirs of the virus, so there will always be a danger of a future outbreak and more lockdows
2) stall and wait for a vaccine
3) acquire herd immunity in a controlled manner.

We are still lacking enough data about the virus to know which strategy is best. Maybe in a couple of months we will all be envious of Italy, Spain and Brazil that they already have herd immunity while we do not.


----------



## Kieran

science said:


> I think it's just testing and tracking. Korea has tested so many people, and when someone is found to have it, they're able to find just about everyone who's been exposed and test them too, so that almost every case is found and quarantined.
> 
> Culturally, fewer Koreans are anti-intellectual (their medical and political institutions are more trustworthy and Koreans have a lot of respect for science and expertise) so they've been more willing to wear masks and observe social distancing. The churches have been a little rebellious, but the wider society has been eager to apply pressure on the churches to confirm. There's more "you have to do your part" and less "I can do whatever I want" in people's attitudes. Relative to some cultures, they're also less physical -- acquaintances in Korea usually don't touch (let alone kiss) each other.
> 
> For now it looks like a successful strategy but I am not sure about the long term. I guess if the virus dies out in the world this will have worked, but it looks like this virus is here to stay -- countries like Brazil are just going to let it spread as wide as it can. I think that it might be too late in the USA as well. Maybe we started social distancing too late, and maybe the testing and tracking won't catch up. We'll see. But anyway, countries like Brazil will have many more people die but in the end they will have herd immunity. I don't know if Korea is going to achieve that as quickly. We'll wait to see that....


Already, I see the cultural difference here between South Korea and - say - Italy or Spain. They're very tactile in these countries. My friend returned home from Italy on the last flight out of there and she was alarmed at how her fellow Italians were still greeting each other with hugs and kisses. Also, I don;t know much about the culture of South Korea, but a big problem for people in the west is obeying their governments, and also accepting restrictions. We're getting there, and on the whole I think people have been doing their best, but it's taken a while for us to shut down the big sports events, close bars, stop socialising, etc. I

I was in Rome myself only a month ago, and when I got home to Dublin they introduced social distancing, and I was shocked to see people still queuing up outside bars and sitting side by side with strangers in restaurants and cafes. It takes time for new habits to form, but again, I think people are mostly doing their best.

The herd immunity dilemma is the key. The problem simply being, we need herd immunity, but we've shut down when there are relatively still minuscule figures of infected people, so we may need to stagger our return to "normal", by releasing the youngest and most physically strong back into the workforce soonest.

Thanks for the reply! :tiphat:


----------



## Open Book

science said:


> For now it looks like a successful strategy but I am not sure about the long term. I guess if the virus dies out in the world this will have worked, but it looks like this virus is here to stay -- countries like Brazil are just going to let it spread as wide as it can. I think that it might be too late in the USA as well. Maybe we started social distancing too late, and maybe the testing and tracking won't catch up. We'll see. But anyway, countries like Brazil will have many more people die but in the end they will have herd immunity. I don't know if Korea is going to achieve that as quickly. We'll wait to see that....


If the virus is allowed to flourish anywhere it's just going to make its way back to the rest of the world unless every country closes its borders.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> there are basically 3 possible strategies
> 1) contain and stop the virus, descease R0 below 1. Some societies might be able to achieve it, but other will certainly fail and will be future reservoirs of the virus, so there will always be a danger of a future outbreak and more lockdows
> 2) stall and wait for a vaccine
> 3) acquire herd immunity in a controlled manner.


I don't quite understand herd immunity. Is that just saying, Let everyone get infected but slowly enough so that we're not overwhelming the hospitals? There's still a cost to it in that some individuals who get sick will die.

Seems like part of achieving herd immunity is that those who might have a genetic profile that makes them more vulnerable will die at a higher rate. Their genetic profile will then disappear from the population, making it stronger. Kind of a harsh way to achieve group immunity.

I realize that herd immunity can be achieved by vaccinating everyone as well. That's not true immunity and that will take time to develop. But vaccination has worked to eliminate other even more terrible viruses.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> I don't quite understand herd immunity. Is that just saying, Let everyone get infected but slowly enough so that we're not overwhelming the hospitals? There's still a cost to it in that some individuals who get sick will die.
> 
> Seems like part of achieving herd immunity is that those who might have a genetic profile that makes them more vulnerable will die at a higher rate. Their genetic profile will then disappear from the population, making it stronger. Kind of a harsh way to achieve group immunity.
> 
> I realize that herd immunity can be achieved by vaccinating everyone as well. That's not true immunity and that will take time to develop. But vaccination has worked to eliminate other even more terrible viruses.


there is even a formula, that lets you compute from the R0 number what fraction of population must get immunized to stop the spread of the virus. With this virus it has been calculated to be 70% of the population. If it has a mortality of 0.5%, then it would kill 1.2 million Americans to acquire the herd immunity in America. We do not know the true mortality of the virus, but 0.5% seems a good estimate to me.
The problem with vaccines it, that for some viruses it is difficult or impossible to develop a vaccine, because they do not produce a robust immune response.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> there is even a formula, that lets you compute from the R0 number what fraction of population must get immunized to stop the spread of the virus. With this virus it has been calculated to be 70% of the population. If it has a mortality of 0.5%, then it would kill 1.2 million Americans to acquire the herd immunity in America. We do not know the true mortality of the virus, but 0.5% seems a good estimate to me.
> The problem with vaccines it, that for some viruses it is difficult or impossible to develop a vaccine, because they do not produce a robust immune response.


We lucked out with smallpox, that a vaccine works on it.

Your estimate of the mortality rate takes into account the unknown actual rate of infection. From the _known_ infections in the U.S. (with only limited selective testing going on) it seems like it's been a persistent 2% who are dying. One out of fifty. Ugh.

15% or one out of seven in the hospital. One out of fifty dead.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> We lucked out with smallpox, that a vaccine works on it.
> 
> Your estimate of the mortality rate takes into account the unknown actual rate of infection. From the _known_ infections in the U.S. (with only limited selective testing going on) it seems like it's been a persistent 2% who are dying. One out of fifty. Ugh.
> 
> 15% or one out of seven in the hospital. One out of fifty dead.


the 2% CFR in the US and 10% CFR in Italy are almost certainly overestimates caused by lack of testing. In reality, there are many people with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, that are not being tested. If they were tested, the CFR would be lower. On the other hand, there are also people dying from coronavirus, that have not been diagnosed for coronavirus. South Korea did an excellent job with testing and tracing, so their CFR is likely much more close to reality. We need to study the virus more to know how many people are asymptomatic and thus find out the true CFR (mortality).


----------



## Art Rock

The Netherlands have 1339 confirmed COVID-19 deaths to date (and likely more, since not all deaths will have been diagnosed in time). To put that into USA perspective, based on the population sizes, that corresponds to about 26000 in the USA. We're not at the peak yet, so the endgame is much more than double that. Moreover, we're close to hitting the intensive care capacity here - once we exceed that, expect a jump in deaths, not just from COVID-19 but other patients needing IC and finding out that there is no space left.

In fact, we're still following the Italian curve corrected for start date and population ratio. The Italian deaths curve is still not at the peak - in fact, if we cannot get lower than that curve soon, we're probably looking at at least 10000 dead in the Netherlands (corresponding to almost 200000 in the USA based on population ratio).


----------



## starthrower

Sorry to hear that, Art Rock. I have a good friend in Amsterdam. He's a musician. I just sent him a message. Hopefully he's still healthy.


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> I do not trust any information from North Korea, Russia and China. These countries are not known for their honesty.


Sadly, I don't really trust any information from the USA either. The current White House administration seems to be either incompetent or is deliberately suppressing information.

It didn't help that the President severely downplayed the threat early on, even using it as a political football.

The US' stats are also skewed as testing has not been, and continues to not be widely available. You can't count what you haven't tested for.

Thank Zeus we have a [more or less] free press here, although with all the propaganda mixed with the real information, it's difficult to extract what is real and useful facts.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> Sadly, I don't really trust any information from the USA either. The current White House administration seems to be either incompetent or is deliberately suppressing information.
> 
> It didn't help that the President severely downplayed the threat early on, even using it as a political football.
> 
> The US' stats are also skewed as testing has not been, and continues to not be widely available. You can't count what you haven't tested for.
> 
> Thank Zeus we have a [more or less] free press here, although with all the propaganda mixed with the real information, it's difficult to extract what is real and useful facts.


How can the White House suppress information if we actually have a free press? There are plenty of medical sources for information all over the place that don't go through White House channels.

With all information it's up to us to decide if it make sense.


----------



## science

Open Book said:


> How can the White House suppress information if we actually have a free press? There are plenty of medical sources for information all over the place that don't go through White House channels.
> 
> With all information it's up to us to decide if it make sense.


I did read a report early on of doctors in the US feeling pressure not to classify some deaths as due to coronavirus. I don't know whether that ever actually happened, and hopefully if it did it's a thing of the past now.

However, I'm going to remain very skeptical of the official death counts in every country. I think we'll only know how many people have died when this is over and we can see how many more people died than we would have expected in normal times.


----------



## aleazk

Fauci received death threats and now must go everywhere with bodyguards.

What the F. is wrong with some people!


----------



## science

Here's a good article on when social distancing was started in various parts of the US.

Here is a site that tracks the number of confirmed cases of various counties. You can also change it to show the % of population with confirmed cases. You might want to bear in mind that not all places have had the same number of tests.

We'll see how this looks in 3 weeks....


----------



## eljr

science said:


> Here's a good article on when social distancing was started in various parts of the US.
> 
> Here is a site that tracks the number of confirmed cases of various counties. You can also change it to show the % of population with confirmed cases. You might want to bear in mind that not all places have had the same number of tests.
> 
> We'll see how this looks in 3 weeks....


with all respect, this is when it started IN WORD not in practise.

People took the first 10-15 days to make a big party out of it.


----------



## starthrower

Looks a bit unstable in Hubei province.


----------



## science

Louisiana is getting hammered today. If this spreads through the South it'll be rough -- there's a lot of diabetes and cardiovascular disease down there, and a lot of people without health insurance.


----------



## science

starthrower said:


> Looks a bit unstable in Hubei province.


Interesting to see American media dance around this.

But India's like, "We ain't afraid uh nothin."


----------



## DaveM

Quote without comment:

Georgia governor today when finally, belatedly issuing stay-at-home orders, said that we did not do this previously because it’s only in the last 24 hours that we found out that symptom-free infected people can spread the virus.


----------



## Art Rock




----------



## KenOC

science said:


> I did read a report early on of doctors in the US feeling pressure not to classify some deaths as due to coronavirus. I don't know whether that ever actually happened, and hopefully if it did it's a thing of the past now.
> 
> However, I'm going to remain very skeptical of the official death counts in every country. I think we'll only know how many people have died when this is over and we can see how many more people died than we would have expected in normal times.


I have been following this story since before the US had its first case (see the date of the initial post). The first known US case was in Washington, and for a long time the US story was primarily King County in that state - our first outbreak, now seemingly slowed down. I have lived there for many years in the past and still own a house there. I am very familiar with the state and especially north King County, the epicenter of the virus outbreak in Washington.

Which is an introduction to saying that I have never heard of _anybody _suggesting that a COVID-19 diagnosis be avoided, or that such information be suppressed. In fact, there have been quite a few after-the-fact analyses of tissue samples from people who died, mostly in early February, that have found the virus and changed the official cause of death.


----------



## starthrower

science said:


> Interesting to see American media dance around this.
> 
> But India's like, "We ain't afraid uh nothin."


I can't deal with American television. It's completely vacuous. Nothing but pundits complaining about Trump as if we didn't get it by now. My wife discovered the Indian network on YouTube.


----------



## science

starthrower said:


> I can't deal with American television. It's completely vacuous. Nothing but pundits complaining about Trump as if we didn't get it by now. My wife discovered the Indian network on YouTube.


I watch a lot of international news too. BBC, France 24, DW, and Al Jazeera are good together. Rather too corporate but at least they contrast. For good American news, Democracy Now can't be beaten.


----------



## science

Good news from Italy:


----------



## Guest

https://www.spiked-online.com/podcast-episode/in-this-lockdown-dissent-is-a-moral-duty/


----------



## Flamme

science said:


> Louisiana is getting hammered today. If this spreads through the South it'll be rough -- there's a lot of diabetes and cardiovascular disease down there, and a lot of people without health insurance.


It is indeed, serious. Just got news from a relative that a guy died in his building, only 10 years my senior, born in 1970. Thats pretty young! He had a diabetes and couple other illnesses but he was not ''terminaly ill'' before corona...


----------



## KenOC

A couple of items. First, nice words from Trump from yesterday's US entry at Worldometer. Trump has been advised recently to show more "empathy" in his remarks on the pandemic.

"Our country is in the midst of a great national trial, unlike any we have ever faced before. [...] We're at war with a deadly virus. Success in this fight will require the full absolute measure of our collective strength, love, and devotion. It's very important. Each of us has the power through our own choices and actions to save American lives and rescue the most vulnerable among us."

Second, *Michigan reverses course on Trump-touted coronavirus drugs
*
"Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's administration has requested an emergency supply of the drugs President Trump touted as having success treating patients with severe symptoms of the novel coronavirus, in a reversal from the state's directive to medical professionals last week to avoid the medication for this purpose.

"Michigan, this week, requested hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine from the Strategic National Stockpile for physicians to use to help treat patients with COVID-19, after the Food and Drug Administration over the weekend granted an emergency use authorization for the anti-malarial drugs.

"But last week, Whitmer's administration threatened physicians prescribing the drugs, saying they were subject to "administrative action" should they continue to use the medication."


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> A couple of items. First, nice words from Trump from yesterday's US entry at Worldometer. Trump has been advised recently to show more "empathy" in his remarks on the pandemic.
> 
> "Our country is in the midst of a great national trial, unlike any we have ever faced before. [...] We're at war with a deadly virus. Success in this fight will require the full absolute measure of our collective strength, love, and devotion. It's very important. Each of us has the power through our own choices and actions to save American lives and rescue the most vulnerable among us."
> 
> Second, *Michigan reverses course on Trump-touted coronavirus drugs
> *
> "Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's administration has requested an emergency supply of the drugs President Trump touted as having success treating patients with severe symptoms of the novel coronavirus, in a reversal from the state's directive to medical professionals last week to avoid the medication for this purpose.
> 
> "Michigan, this week, requested hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine from the Strategic National Stockpile for physicians to use to help treat patients with COVID-19, after the Food and Drug Administration over the weekend granted an emergency use authorization for the anti-malarial drugs.
> 
> "But last week, Whitmer's administration threatened physicians prescribing the drugs, saying they were subject to "administrative action" should they continue to use the medication."


you try too hard

peace


----------



## eljr

Christabel said:


> https://www.spiked-online.com/podcast-episode/in-this-lockdown-dissent-is-a-moral-duty/


what is this link about?

what is your opinion on it?


----------



## Open Book

I've been doing some online browsing and it's beginning to dawn on me why there are shortages of things like masks, alcohol, and wipes.

People are not just hoarding them for themselves, but are selling them at inflated prices online. They may even be showing a box of packets of swabs and mailing you only a single packet out of the box.

Ebay, Amazon, Walmart are listing buyers who are doing this sort of thing -- I thought they were trying to squelch abuse. They must be too big and slow to manage themselves when there are thousands of scammers.

There are also some really iffy products that have sprung up. "Disinfectants" without ingredients listed. Many with vaguely Chinese-sounding company names that I've never heard of. Instant companies exploiting a tragedy.


----------



## KenOC

Good news (maybe) for my state, comparatively at least. The *IHME COVID-19 Projections* show deaths in California leveling off in June and stabilizing at 5,068 by August. New York, in contrast, levels off in early May but stabilizes at 16,261 deaths.

You can check your own state via the referenced page.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Good news (maybe) for my state, comparatively at least. The *IHME COVID-19 Projections* show deaths in California leveling off in June and stabilizing at 5,068 by August. New York, in contrast, levels off in early May but stabilizes at 16,261 deaths.
> 
> You can check your own state via the referenced page.


All the graphs I saw show deaths per day reaching near zero by July 1 in the U.S. Really?

So I shouldn't count out my plans for Tanglewood this summer starting in early July? Oh, how I'd love to believe that.

I don't think most of the arts organizations believe it. They have either canceled their summer seasons or postponed until August.

I guess things wouldn't go back to normal even if this were true, there would be restrictions maintained to keep infection rates from rebounding.


----------



## science

Flamme said:


> It is indeed, serious. Just got news from a relative that a guy died in his building, only 10 years my senior, born in 1970. Thats pretty young! He had a diabetes and couple other illnesses but he was not ''terminaly ill'' before corona...


I'm really sorry to hear that.

I hope your relative is safe and stays healthy.


----------



## science

Had a fun conversation with one of my students today. She's Korean, so she looks Chinese to most Americans, and everyone has been afraid of her for a couple of weeks. Imagine being a twelve-year-old girl and seeing everyone around flinch every time they see you. At least now that she's back in Korea, she seems to find it funny. 

Interestingly with regards to how the Korean government is handling things, apparently everyone coming from the US is automatically under quarantine for two weeks and they get a call from the government twice a day to check on whether they have any symptoms.

Also, if you're desperate for masks or hand sanitizers and friendly with any Koreans, you might try asking. Apparently a lot of Korean Americans who watch Korean news (this is not all of them) had stocked up before most Americans realized it could get serious. (I don't think they stocked up on toilet paper though. I don't think they realized that would be a thing. But Asian grocery stores were not subject to the same kind of desperate runs that Costcos were.)


----------



## DaveM

eljr said:


> what is this link about?
> 
> what is your opinion on it?


Why feed the beast?


----------



## mountmccabe

Open Book said:


> All the graphs I saw show deaths per day reaching near zero by July 1 in the U.S. Really?
> 
> So I shouldn't count out my plans for Tanglewood this summer starting in early July? Oh, how I'd love to believe that.
> 
> I don't think most of the arts organizations believe it. They have either canceled their summer seasons or postponed until August.
> 
> I guess things wouldn't go back to normal even if this were true, there would be restrictions maintained to keep infection rates from rebounding.


That's the answer given in the the IHME model FAQ (emphasis added)

"*Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?*

"Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine."

I'm not sure at what point gathering large amounts of strangers sitting right next to each other will make sense again. I think a lot of organizations were hoping things weren't going to get as bad as they have, in part because many of these cultural performances have been planned for a long time, coordinating soloists, selecting and rehearsing music, and so on. (Similar could be said for sporting events, that make most sense as part of a carefully scheduled set of events rather than a one-off here and there).

Perhaps when there is widespread testing matched with quarantining those with exposure they'll check your temperature as you enter the concert hall (like they might have you pass through a metal detector) and some concerts can go on, maybe with attendance caps.


----------



## KenOC

*This is interesting.*

Dr. Stephen Smith, founder of The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health, said … that he is optimistic about the use of antimalarial medications and antibiotics to treat COVID-19 patients, calling it "a game-changer."

"I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. I'm very serious…"

Smith, who is treating 72 COVID-19 patients, said that he has been treating "everybody with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin [an antibiotic]. We've been doing so for a while." He pointed out that not a single COVID-19 patient of his that has been on the hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin regimen for five days or more has had to be intubated.

"The chance of that occurring by chance, according to my sons Leon and Hunter who did some stats for me, are .000-something," he said, adding that "it's ridiculously low."


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

It's not serious . Nope .


----------



## science

Well, then, maybe this is over.

I'd like to see something better than Fox News and "my sons Leon and Hunter did some stats for me" but hell, something's better than nothing.

Here's a more serious report on it.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> *This is interesting.*
> 
> Dr. Stephen Smith, founder of The Smith Center for Infectious Diseases and Urban Health, said … that he is optimistic about the use of antimalarial medications and antibiotics to treat COVID-19 patients, calling it "a game-changer."
> 
> "I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. I'm very serious…"
> 
> Smith, who is treating 72 COVID-19 patients, said that he has been treating "everybody with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin [an antibiotic]. We've been doing so for a while." He pointed out that not a single COVID-19 patient of his that has been on the hydroxychloroq7uine and azithromycin regimen for five days or more has had to be intubated.
> 
> "The chance of that occurring by chance, according to my sons Leon and Hunter who did some stats for me, are .000-something," he said, adding that "it's ridiculously low."


As much as anybody I want the hydroxychloroquine to work. Most of that link is about the China Study I mentioned recently and it was interesting because there was a control arm -not double-blind, but at least something better than nothing. The Dr. Stephen Smith report is interesting, but there was no control arm and running stats by his sons doesn't mean much. I don't dismiss it because right now we can't demand perfect studies. Still, the reports/studies that have some sort of control arms will be more convincing.

Fwiw, if I were to develop coronavirus symptoms I would take the drug. A number of physicians as in the Dr. Smith report are using both hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin. But each drug can lengthen the cardiac QT interval which simplistically means that the depolarization->repolarization period of each beat is increased so that the heart might not be ready for the next beat. So you can get some deadly arrhythmias. I would have to stick with just the one drug.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

The Wizards of Psychology will hypnotize you . Shazam! Go to your computer and be content .
Your programming is nearly complete .


----------



## DaveM

Tikoo Tuba said:


> The Wizards of Psychology will hypnotize you . Shazam! Go to your computer and be content .
> Your programming is nearly complete .


Sounds like it happened to you already.


----------



## mmsbls

science said:


> Well, then, maybe this is over.
> 
> I'd like to see something better than Fox News and "my sons Leon and Hunter did some stats for me" but hell, something's better than nothing.


I agree that Dr. Smith's report is only of mild interest. He does reference this report from French researchers. They did a control study with modest statistics using Azithromycin (an antibiotic) added to
hydroxychloroquine to treat 20 COvid-19 patients. The result do look rather promising compared to the control group.

I certainly hope many other similar studies are being done around the world with a variety of promising drugs. Eventually, there will be high statistics results on people in various stages of the disease, and hopefully one or several drugs will show great promise.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

DaveM said:


> Sounds like it happened to you already.


Hypnosis is the condition I observe locally . And one day at the store I heard a hypnosis recording featured on the store's sound system . The subject : virus . Hypnosis via media is real . I attend to sound keenly . You ? The store is corporate , and fascism is a creeping thing otherwise called Corporatism .

Human Jelly is the new paradigm .


----------



## KenOC

mmsbls said:


> I agree that Dr. Smith's report is only of mild interest. He does reference this report from French researchers. They did a control study with modest statistics using Azithromycin (an antibiotic) added to
> hydroxychloroquine to treat 20 COvid-19 patients. The result do look rather promising compared to the control group.
> 
> I certainly hope many other similar studies are being done around the world with a variety of promising drugs. Eventually, there will be high statistics results on people in various stages of the disease, and hopefully one or several drugs will show great promise.


It should be remembered that Dr. Smith is not talking about a "report" or any kind of "study." He's simply describing his personal experiences in caring for a pretty good number of patients. In other words, an anecdote.

But based on his experience (and that of another doctor caring for 1300 COVID-19 patients that I posted some time ago), if I had the virus and if there _were _a study, I'd rather not be in the control group!


----------



## senza sordino

5968 people died today of Covid-19










That is 1100 people more than yesterday's appalling body count.


----------



## mmsbls

KenOC said:


> It should be remembered that Dr. Smith is not talking about a "report" or any kind of "study." He's simply describing his personal experiences in caring for a pretty good number of patients. In other words, an anecdote.


Yes, I meant his report on Fox News. That's why science and I are not overly impressed with what he reported. When the proper studies are done and hopefully a series of drugs are identified which show extremely strong response against the virus, I'll feel much better.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Why is it appalling ? , well , perhaps if this virus has been bio-engineered . I wouldn't know about that .
Otherwise I'm not horrified by nature .


----------



## KenOC

Here's an *over-excited person* in LA:
------------------------------------------------
The FBI is examining whether a man accused of intentionally derailing a freight train near the hospital ship Mercy, which is docked in San Pedro to help with the coronavirus crisis, had any ties to extremist groups, and agents are digging into his social media background.

Eduardo Moreno, 44, of San Pedro, was charged with deliberately wrecking a train during the incident Tuesday, which lead to a derailment and fuel leak, according to charges…

Prosecutors allege that Moreno derailed the train and deliberately crashed through barriers designed to stop engines before grinding to a halt 250 yards from the Mercy…

Moreno, according to multiple sources, believed the Mercy was part of a government control conspiracy designed to divide and control the people...

(but...aha!) According to sources familiar with the probe, officials have found he was a member of a Facebook group interested in train crashes.


----------



## KenOC

The Navy hospital ship U.S.N.S. Comfort is in New York.

"On Thursday, though, the huge white vessel, which officials had promised would bring succor to a city on the brink, sat mostly empty, infuriating executives at local hospitals. The ship's 1,000 beds are largely unused, its 1,200-member crew mostly idle.

"Only 20 patients had been transferred to the ship, officials said, even as New York hospitals struggled to find space for the thousands infected with the coronavirus. Another Navy hospital ship, the U.S.N.S. Mercy, docked in Los Angeles, has had a total of 15 patients, officials said."

The reasons are too tiresome to go into. Read the* linked article*.


----------



## Guest

eljr said:


> what is this link about?
> 
> what is your opinion on it?


I just put it here to add to the issues surrounding this pandemic. Some people think government have gone too far. I don't have an opinion on this, as yet.


----------



## erki

Tikoo Tuba said:


> Hypnosis is the condition I observe locally . And one day at the store I heard a hypnosis recording featured on the store's sound system . The subject : virus . Hypnosis via media is real . I attend to sound keenly . You ? The store is corporate , and fascism is a creeping thing otherwise called Corporatism .
> 
> Human Jelly is the new paradigm .


Some years ago I heard about some simple practises to maintain your psychic hygiene - keeping healthy level on insanity. One goes like this: at the cash-machine you punch vigorously keys and when money bills appear you crab these and waving you hand victoriously high over your head you shout "I won, I won!!!" and run down the street happy. Repeat as many times needed to feel that the world makes sense again.


----------



## science

Kenneth Copeland declared coronavirus dead so that's one less thing we have to worry about.


----------



## starthrower

science said:


> Kenneth Copeland declared coronavirus dead so that's one less thing we have to worry about.


Lemme know when he's declared dead so I can pour a glass of champagne.


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> The Navy hospital ship U.S.N.S. Comfort is in New York.
> 
> "On Thursday, though, the huge white vessel, which officials had promised would bring succor to a city on the brink, sat mostly empty, infuriating executives at local hospitals. The ship's 1,000 beds are largely unused, its 1,200-member crew mostly idle.
> 
> "Only 20 patients had been transferred to the ship, officials said, even as New York hospitals struggled to find space for the thousands infected with the coronavirus. Another Navy hospital ship, the U.S.N.S. Mercy, docked in Los Angeles, has had a total of 15 patients, officials said."
> 
> The reasons are too tiresome to go into. Read the* linked article*.


wow, just wow ...


----------



## DaveM

Apparently according to Copeland, Covid-19 dried up and was finished at noon almost 6 days ago (noon March 29). It (or the devil, not sure which) was commanded to crawl on its belly. From what I can tell, the virus has been crawling all over the place for some time. Officials and experts have not got the word yet that the thing is dead and ‘it is over’.

Oh yes, it’s important to tithe to him during this time.


----------



## Open Book

mountmccabe said:


> That's the answer given in the the IHME model FAQ (emphasis added)
> 
> "*Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?*
> 
> "Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine."
> 
> I'm not sure at what point gathering large amounts of strangers sitting right next to each other will make sense again. I think a lot of organizations were hoping things weren't going to get as bad as they have, in part because many of these cultural performances have been planned for a long time, coordinating soloists, selecting and rehearsing music, and so on. (Similar could be said for sporting events, that make most sense as part of a carefully scheduled set of events rather than a one-off here and there).


I'm not ready to trust any models because they keep changing. There was one posted earlier in this thread showing the peak number of new infections in the U.S. would occur in August. This model showed a hard date of August regardless of whether social distancing was practiced. The number of infections/deaths would be lowered in this model with restrictions in place, but the peak time would not change. I thought that strange and remarked upon it.

I hope this new model that KenOC just posted is correct. It shows a peak date of April 16th. Your first paragraph explains why it won't be the end of restrictions.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/


----------



## Jacck

There are news from different countries (like Canada, France, Germany) that the US is blocking its companies (which produce in China) from selling equipment (like PPE) to other countries than the US. They even 'catch' them (e.g in Bangkok) on the way to their destination, like Alsace, (one of the heaviest regions in France) and order them to bring them to the US.

Just 2 weeks ago, the Trump administration was still sending PPE to China
https://www.themarysue.com/shortage-of-ppe-because-trump-sent-our-stockpile-to-china/


----------



## Open Book

The Boston Symphony Orchestra canceled the remainder of its fall-spring Season but is still selling tickets for its summer season. They are probably hoping that if people buy tickets they will let the orchestra keep the inevitable refund. It's easier to let someone keep money you've already given them than give a new donation, which can be put off.

Maybe musicians should do online live concerts and charge a fee for access as with any other concert. I would be up for that.

We should support the arts through these times, so they will survive. That is if we still have jobs ourselves and are able to do so.


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> I'm not ready to trust any models because they keep changing. There was one posted earlier in this thread showing the peak number of new infections in the U.S. would occur in August. This model showed a hard date of August regardless of whether social distancing was practiced. The number of infections/deaths would be lowered in this model with restrictions in place, but the peak time would not change. I thought that strange and remarked upon it.
> 
> I hope this new model that KenOC just posted is correct. It shows a peak date of April 16th. Your first paragraph explains why it won't be the end of restrictions.
> 
> https://covid19.healthdata.org/


we expect the models to keep changing

These models are VERY useful if used as intended which is not as an exact predictor of future events


----------



## Kieran

In Ireland we got a delivery of PPE's from China, they're not fit for purpose. It didn't surprise me in the least.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0403/1128300-ppe-covid-19-ireland/


----------



## Jacck

an epidemiologist describes the cold hard reality




the Spanish flu lasted 1 year before the whole population became infected


----------



## Jacck

1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary


----------



## KenOC

*Marseille's maverick chloroquine doctor becomes pandemic rock star*

French virologist Didier Raoult has gained fame for promoting the treatment of Covid-19 with a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. He has influenced both medical practitioners and public policy in other countries, including the US.

But (again) his testimony is anecdotal. There are several large-scale studies that may support or disprove his thesis, but it may be weeks before results are known. And doctors warn that, since these drugs can have their own quite serious side effects, being treated with them may be riskier than the coronavirus itself.

More in the full story from the Financial Times.


----------



## Jacck

Behind the right's obsession with a miracle cure for coronavirus
https://www.salon.com/2020/04/03/be...ure-for-coronavirus-its-not-just-about-trump/
the article links other website that descibe that the chloroquine is not effective

I, just as anybody else, would like to see a working medicament. Though these anecdotal evidences by doctors of questionable repute are worthless. We will wait for the WHO study. My personal guess is that the chloroquine is going to show useless (though I would like to be wrong). The best bet is the remdesivir imho


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> ...And doctors warn that, since these drugs can have their own quite serious side effects, being treated with them may be riskier than the coronavirus itself.


I've seen this kind of comment before and I can never figure out on what basis they're saying it. Some of the more serious side effects have been more from chloroquine than hydroxychloroquine and when it comes to the latter, the serious side effects apply more to long term use for Lupus or Rheumatoid Arthritis than would apply to a 5 day treatment for coronavirus.


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> I've seen this kind of comment before and I can never figure out on what basis they're saying it. Some of the more serious side effects have been more from chloroquine than hydroxychloroquine and when it comes to the latter, the serious side effects apply more to long term use for Lupus or Rheumatoid Arthritis than would apply to a 5 day treatment for coronavirus.


people are going to self-medicate, overdose and as you said yesterday, torsades de pointes is a real possibility. I myself experienced an arrhytmia from azithromycine


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> I've seen this kind of comment before and I can never figure out on what basis they're saying it. Some of the more serious side effects have been more from chloroquine than hydroxychloroquine and when it comes to the latter, the serious side effects apply more to long term use for Lupus or Rheumatoid Arthritis than would apply to a 5 day treatment for coronavirus.


Could be. I'm just paraphrasing the story. Given my several "underlying conditions," I'd be glad to take either drug.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> people are going to self-medicate, overdose and as you said yesterday, torsades de pointes is a real possibility. I myself experienced an arrhytmia from azithromycine


No doubt that people with certain heart conditions and arrhythmias would be taking a risk taking both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin and there would have to be a risk/benefit consideration for taking just hydroxychloroquine. So far, indications are that if they end up working, they will help prevent mild disease progressing to the potentially lethal form. (They don't appear to save people who are already ventilator-bound.)

The risk/benefit challenge is tricky. The person with a risk for a serious arrhythmia from just hydroxychloroquine would likely be at risk for serious consequences from covid-19. If we can just get more confirmation that the drug reliably works then the choice is clear for me personally.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Could be. I'm just paraphrasing the story. Given my several "underlying conditions," I'd be glad to take either drug.


I hear you.


----------



## Jacck

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/chloroquine-dangers-coronavirus
the French study was ridiculous.

_Outside experts have heavily criticized the French study, however. Infectious disease geneticist Gaetan Burgio of the Australian National University noted that statistically, weighing national responses to a pandemic on a study of 20 people was unwise, that the French study was not conducted with doctors and patients blind to the treatment, and that only a quarter of the placebo patients had their viral load measured. "This is insane!" he said on Twitter. Even worse, six patients dropped out of the trial from the group receiving the drug, and three of them ended up in intensive care and one died. These could be viewed as failures of the drug to work against the virus, Alfred Kim of the Washington University Lupus Clinic told Undark magazine._


----------



## schigolch

DaveM said:


> No doubt that people with certain heart conditions and arrhythmias would be taking a risk taking both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin and there would have to be a risk/benefit consideration for taking just hydroxychloroquine. So far, indications are that if they end up working, they will help prevent mild disease progressing to the potentially lethal form. (They don't appear to save people who are already ventilator-bound.)
> 
> The risk/benefit challenge is tricky. The person with a risk for a serious arrhythmia from just hydroxychloroquine would likely be at risk for serious consequences from covid-19. If we can just get more confirmation that the drug reliably works then the choice is clear for me personally.


Two friends of mine were feeling covid-19 symptoms (fever, cough, muscle pain, loss of smell and taste,...), and while still in reasonably good condition, they took both hydroxychloroquine (1 pill of 200mg two times per day, seven days) and azithromycin (1 pill per day, three days), and they have not developed covid-19 further, and they are fine today.

Of course, it's perfectly possible that the treatment have nothing to do with their recovery, and they would have get the same results by doing nothing at all, except taking something for the fever, and pain killers. Then again, who knows?. Personally, I think for the time being to go the hydroxychloroquine / azithromycin route is the best choice available.


----------



## eljr

schigolch said:


> Two friends of mine were feeling covid-19 symptoms (fever, cough, muscle pain, loss of smell and taste,...), and while still in reasonably good condition, they took both hydroxychloroquine (1 pill of 200mg two times per day, seven days) and azithromycin (1 pill per day, three days), and they have not developed covid-19 further, and they are fine today.
> 
> Of course, it's perfectly possible that the treatment have nothing to do with their recovery, and they would have get the same results by doing nothing at all, except taking something for the fever, and pain killers. Then again, who knows?. Personally, I think for the time being to go the hydroxychloroquine / azithromycin route is the best choice available.


and where and how did they get these drugs?


----------



## Jacck

schigolch said:


> Two friends of mine were feeling covid-19 symptoms (fever, cough, muscle pain, loss of smell and taste,...), and while still in reasonably good condition, they took both hydroxychloroquine (1 pill of 200mg two times per day, seven days) and azithromycin (1 pill per day, three days), and they have not developed covid-19 further, and they are fine today.
> 
> Of course, it's perfectly possible that the treatment have nothing to do with their recovery, and they would have get the same results by doing nothing at all, except taking something for the fever, and pain killers. Then again, who knows?. Personally, I think for the time being to go the hydroxychloroquine / azithromycin route is the best choice available.


it is not only possible, but very probable. Let us wait for the WHO study
https://www.precisionvaccinations.c...candidates-include-chloroquine-and-remdesivir
I would personally not take the chloroquine even when infected with the virus. I would take zinc, selenium and NAC


----------



## eljr

DaveM said:


> I've seen this kind of comment before and I can never figure out on what basis they're saying it. Some of the more serious side effects have been more from chloroquine than hydroxychloroquine and when it comes to the latter, the serious side effects apply more to long term use for Lupus or Rheumatoid Arthritis than would apply to a 5 day treatment for coronavirus.


I have read they are more concerned with a plethora of possible drug interactions.


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> I myself experienced an arrhytmia from azithromycine


which kind of arrhythmia ? 
......


----------



## Jacck

eljr said:


> which kind of arrhythmia ?
> ......


I experienced on azithromycine that my heart was missing some beats. It was a very unpleasant feeling. azithromycin, just like chloroquine and many other drugs is known to prolong the QT interval. And the more drugs you take, the greater the danger. So they are worried about the interactions, that people who already take several other medicaments start self-medication with chloroquine and develop these arrhytmias.


----------



## Luchesi

I didn't realize;

as of 2011

The seasonal flu causes on average 36,000 deaths in the United States (CDC, 2011).

http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/PH/PH709_Influenza/PH709_Influenza_print.html


----------



## Room2201974

science said:


> Kenneth Copeland declared coronavirus dead so that's one less thing we have to worry about.


"For wherever two or three gather in my name, there I am with them. " ~ Covid 1.9


----------



## KenOC

*Germany and France Blame Americans for Playing Dirty Over Masks*

"Berlin's state interior ministry blamed the U.S. for confiscating 200,000 masks ordered from a U.S. producer when they were in transit through Bangkok. French officials have accused unidentified Americans of paying over the odds to secure masks in China that had already been earmarked for France."

A murky story that may someday make a decent movie. And in a related development:

"3M Co. on Friday defended its decision to export respirators from its U.S. facilities to Canada and Latin America, saying there would be 'significant humanitarian implications' from halting supplies. President Donald Trump earlier threatened retribution against the company for sending masks and ventilators outside the U.S."


----------



## tdc

"It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled".
-Mark Twain

Doctor destroys covid-19 test:






This would explain why to date over all world deaths have not risen dramatically, only deaths attributed to "covid-19".


----------



## tdc

Citizens prove media is lying:


----------



## tdc

10 more experts questioning coronavirus panic:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/


----------



## tdc

While people have been distracted by coronavirus hype a bill has been passed and they are quietly rolling out 5G which is known to cause dangerous levels of radiation exposure and is hazardous to human health. 

The process by which exosome's are secreted by cells when they are toxic (which they are calling 'covid-19'), increases when people are exposed to 5G. So you can bet with the roll out of 5G we will have more suffering and health problems, which will almost certainly be blamed on "covid-19".


----------



## science




----------



## science

I regretted posting the video I'd originally posted so this is something more fun and probably more helpful.


----------



## DaveM

Not that many miles from us a 4.9R earthquake just hit. The earth below us moved and it scared the bejeezus out of my exosomes!


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> Not that many miles from us a 4.9R earthquake just hit. The earth below us moved and it scared the bejeezus out of my exosomes!


Saw it was near Anza. Didn't feel it here. We don't allow that sort of thing.


----------



## starthrower

science said:


> I regretted posting the video I'd originally posted so this is something more fun and probably more helpful.


The fact that congress is aiding Wall St in a massive rip off of Main St is definitely more fun!


----------



## DaveM

Conspiracy theories about coronavirus abound:

Re: the exosome theory (from a psychiatrist no less, do I seek out an infectious disease specialist when I need an antidepressant from hearing all these conspiracy theories?):

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1245725967542296577.html

Re: the 5G theory:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/conspiracy-theory-5g-coronavirus-qanon

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-covid-19-misinformation-campaigns/


----------



## science

starthrower said:


> The fact that congress is aiding Wall St in a massive rip off of Main St is definitely more fun!


I really like Katie and Matt.


----------



## senza sordino

5990 people died today of Covid-19


----------



## Jacck

the worldometer now has total tests and tests per million in each country
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


----------



## Jacck

starthrower said:


> The fact that congress is aiding Wall St in a massive rip off of Main St is definitely more fun!


the worst and richest people have been telling the most gullible and stupid people that all of their problems are somehow caused by the smartest people and the poorest people. All to further enrich themselves.


----------



## Jacck

TB vaccination likely partially protects against coronavirus. In my country, mandatory vaccinations against TB were stopped only in 2010. So countries with a population that has been vaccinated against TB are more resistant against the coronavirus, which might explain why the postcommunist countries are faring relatively better and have lower mortality. They observed it even it Germany, where the former East Germany population is vaccinated, but the Western Germany was not vaccinated
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus


----------



## science

Jacck said:


> TB vaccination likely partially protects against coronavirus. In my country, mandatory vaccinations against TB were stopped only in 2010. So countries with a population that has been vaccinated against TB are more resistant against the coronavirus, which might explain why the postcommunist countries are faring relatively better and have lower mortality. They observed it even it Germany, where the former East Germany population is vaccinated, but the Western Germany was not vaccinated
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus


That article didn't mention South Korea but it's interesting to note that the tuberculosis vaccine is given to all newborns, which might be one reason the virus was handled relatively well here.


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> That article didn't mention South Korea but it's interesting to note that the tuberculosis vaccine is given to all newborns, which might be one reason the virus was handled relatively well here.


it is certainly an interesting hypothesis


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> Citizens prove media is lying:


OMFG

God Bless you.


----------



## starthrower

science said:


> I really like Katie and Matt.


I don't know anything about her but Matt is pretty sharp. A friend of mine gave me a RS gift subscription for about ten years so I read many of his investigative articles. But my biggest fear is the aftermath in this whole crisis. What is happening to the livelihoods and savings of millions of hard working people. And all of these "vote blue no matter who" liberals who refuse to acknowledge that their party is just as corrupt as the GOP. Civilized evil is still evil.


----------



## Jacck

SARS survivors struggle with symptoms years later
https://www.thestar.com/life/health...ivors_struggle_with_symptoms_years_later.html
this is also some scary stuff


----------



## Jacck

Ivermectin - an anti-parasitic drug already available around the world kills the virus within 48 hours in vitro
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-coronavirus-drug-australian-scientists.html


----------



## Luchesi

Jacck said:


> it is certainly an interesting hypothesis


I tried to enlarge this, so it's blurry. But speaking of TB;


----------



## Art Rock

First positive signs in the Netherlands - for the second day running, new COVID-19 admissions to intensive care have decreased: from 82 to 51 to 36. Early days, but social distancing (which the vast majority is practicing - at least 1.5 meter distance between people) seems to have effect.


----------



## TxllxT

The origin of the SARS 2 virus may have been a Chinese lab where a person accidentally contaminated himself https://techstartups.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-origin-virus-likely-originated-from-horseshoe-bats-used-for-research-in-two-china-labs-chinese-scientists-paper-showed/
https://summit.news/2020/04/03/molecular-biologist-says-coronavirus-could-have-leaked-from-wuhan-biolab/


----------



## TxllxT

Art Rock said:


> First positive signs in the Netherlands - for the second day running, new COVID-19 admissions to intensive care have decreased: from 82 to 51 to 36. Early days, but social distancing (which the vast majority is practicing - at least 1.5 meter distance between people) seems to have effect.


Immediately next to the Netherlands there lies the Ruhrgebiet in Germany with the same amount of citizens (about 17-18 million) but in this industrial polluted air area the number of Covid19 death is 250: 1/6 of the Dutch number. This difference is mind boggling.


----------



## DaveM

I’ve been researching hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for purposes of my own use if it ever came to that. Although relatively rare, there have been bad things happen (cardiac arrhythmias) with azithromycin due to lengthening of the QT interval within just 5 days of treatment. On the other hand, I can’t find much evidence of severe complications from hydroxychloroquine within short periods of treatment, QT interval lengthening related or otherwise. Many of the bad complications have occurred after years of treatment for Lupus or Rheumatoid Arthritis.

At this point, I would be comfortable with hydroxychloroquine, but not the combination with azithromycin. Some physicians are substituting doxycycline for azithromycin, the former not having any QT issues. I would probably consider that alternative. All of this is with the awareness that we don’t yet have confirmation of the effectiveness of these drugs.


----------



## Open Book

........................................................................


----------



## mrdoc

We have been told that Convid19 has not been found to stay on paper i.e. letters magazines boxed food etc which I find hard to understand, but it does exist on hard surfaces i.e. door handles, bottles tin cans etc. So what does it eat or absorb to stay alive. How does it propagate surly it requires water which would exist even in minute quantities in porous substances? Do we have a scientist in our community that could explain this and the life cycle of this pesky little sod?


----------



## Art Rock

mrdoc said:


> We have been told that Convid19 has not been found to stay on paper i.e. letters magazines boxed food etc


I've seen reports that it can survive on paper as well. IIRC something like a day under lab conditions, which probably means less than a day in real life. But I would not take chances on it - especially mail and newspapers since they have very recently been touched by someone who put them in the mail box. I pick them up with a piece of paper in my hands so I don't touch them and quarantine them for 24 hours. And of course I wash my hands immediately afterwards.


----------



## Kieran

I think the jury is still out on how long the virus lasts on certain surfaces, including garments, but you know, I don't know if this is common to to others as well, but I feel strange in the supermarket if I want to check a Best Before date, or ingredients on some item, and I lift it........but then decide I don't want it, and put it back on the shelf.

I feel the dreaded eyes of hysterical snitches and witch-finders fall upon me, and I scurry away in shame. Certainly, I quarantine some food items, just leave them in the cool, spare bedroom a couple of days before going near them again. Some beer too, though ironically enough, alcohol based handwashes are very effective. But does this extend to swigging from the bottle too? I shrug my shoulders in defeat at that one...


----------



## tdc

DaveM said:


> Conspiracy theories about coronavirus abound:
> 
> Re: the exosome theory (from a psychiatrist no less, do I seek out an infectious disease specialist when I need an antidepressant from hearing all these conspiracy theories?):
> 
> https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1245725967542296577.html
> 
> Re: the 5G theory:
> 
> https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/conspiracy-theory-5g-coronavirus-qanon
> 
> https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-covid-19-misinformation-campaigns/


Only a psychiatrist? What about his other qualifications? Ignoring those? You should read more about 5G. Wuhan is one of the first places it has been rolled out in.


----------



## tdc

eljr said:


> OMFG
> 
> God Bless you.


OMFG, not much of an argument.


----------



## tdc

It looks like coronavirus is a cure for pneumonia? Hmmm...


----------



## erki

tdc said:


> It looks like coronavirus is a cure for pneumonia? Hmmm...


Pneumonia patients have died of corona before of pneumonia. Or all lung diseases have been classified as corona complications.


----------



## Iota

mrdoc said:


> We have been told that Convid19 has not been found to stay on paper i.e. letters magazines boxed food etc which I find hard to understand, but it does exist on hard surfaces i.e. door handles, bottles tin cans etc.


I'm no scientist at all, so this purely unscientific speculation, but perhaps the paper etc is able to absorb the moisture thereby denying the virus any temporary sanctuary, whereas harder surfaces allow to stay in some kind of protective moist cocoon?

But I too would be interested to hear any proper scientific opinions.


----------



## DaveM

tdc said:


> Only a psychiatrist? What about his other qualifications? Ignoring those? You should read more about 5G. Wuhan is one of the first places it has been rolled out in.


Wuhan was only one of several cities that 5G was rolled out in. Covid-19 didn't break out simultaneously in all those cities. China has not shut down 5G and yet the number of new cases in Wuhan and elsewhere in China has been decreasing.

Are you going to apologize for propagating this silliness when it becomes obvious to everybody, if it isn't now, that it was the effluent of wandering minds?


----------



## perempe

Jacck said:


> TB vaccination likely partially protects against coronavirus. In my country, mandatory vaccinations against TB were stopped only in 2010. So countries with a population that has been vaccinated against TB are more resistant against the coronavirus, which might explain why the postcommunist countries are faring relatively better and have lower mortality. They observed it even it Germany, where the former East Germany population is vaccinated, but the Western Germany was not vaccinated
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus


BCG vaccine is used from 1953 in Hungary. My mother got it despite was born in 1949. (her younger brother, who lives in the US, also got it.) she's a pediatrician, I always ask how many tuberculosis she has. She says no one all the time, hope she's not lying.


----------



## Flamme

I find some small joy in a fact that I have a special permit for moving during the curfew so I can laugh at ''mere mortals'' around the road...


----------



## Jacck

mrdoc said:


> We have been told that Convid19 has not been found to stay on paper i.e. letters magazines boxed food etc which I find hard to understand, but it does exist on hard surfaces i.e. door handles, bottles tin cans etc. So what does it eat or absorb to stay alive. How does it propagate surly it requires water which would exist even in minute quantities in porous substances? Do we have a scientist in our community that could explain this and the life cycle of this pesky little sod?


I do not know how long the coronovirus survives on paper. But viruses are not living creatures. They are not cells, they do not move, they have no metabolism, they do not eat. They are basically dead particles (DNA + some proteins) that come alive only when they enter human cells and force the cells to produce copies of themselves. The viruses are complex molecules and survive only as long as the molecule can stay undamaged.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> I do not know how long the coronovirus survives on paper. But viruses are not living creatures. They are not cells, they do not move, they have no metabolism, they do not eat. They are basically dead particles (DNA + some proteins) that come alive only when they enter human cells and force the cells to produce copies of themselves. The viruses are complex molecules and survive only as long as the molecule can stay undamaged.


If they don't eat and aren't really alive, what damages them? What happens when they stay on a surface for days with no access to a host? How do the molecules "expire"?


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> If they don't eat and aren't really alive, what damages them? What happens when they stay on a surface for days with no access to a host? How do the molecules "expire"?


the molecules are actually quite fragile and breakup easily, thus "killing" the virus. Most viruses do not survive in the external environment for too long - oxidation, ionization, radiation, temperature, chemical substances etc - destroy them.


----------



## KenOC

*Coronavirus: Scientists brand 5G claims 'complete rubbish'*

BBC article debunking the two conspiracies involved.


----------



## Room2201974

KenOC said:


> *Coronavirus: Scientists brand 5G claims 'complete rubbish'*
> 
> BBC article debunking the two conspiracies involved.


Does that mean I shouldn't use the 24 bottles of Brain Force that I bought with the conspiracy????


----------



## clavichorder

My brother's friend still thinks it's a hoax. He called it a "rich people disease" implying that its something that only celebrities are pretending to come down with. He acts like he is joking when he says this but he isn't. He's one of those people who is on some underground conspiracy theory forum online.


----------



## erki

My friend who is a chaplain in the hospital told me how serious it really is - people just suffocate and some to death. You breeze but you get no oxygen. Ventilators just support, but if your lungs have no working surface to absorb oxygen these will not help much. The idea to obtain some herd-immunity with light infection(how do you control the level of the infection anyway) sounds pretty logical on paper, but I rather wouldn't risk finding myself in group of hospitalised ones by bad luck.
So his advise was to avoid the infection in any cost.


----------



## Open Book

erki said:


> The idea to obtain some herd-immunity with light infection (how do you control the level of the infection anyway)


I was wondering that myself. Does it make any difference if you initially inhale a cloud of coronavirus-infused air deep into your lungs as opposed to it just gets in your nose and infects you? Is there such a thing as light infection depending on how it entered your body, does anybody know?


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> I was wondering that myself. Does it make any difference if you initially inhale a cloud of coronavirus-infused air deep into your lungs as opposed to it just gets in your nose and infects you? Is there such a thing as light infection depending on how it entered your body, does anybody know?


I think a lot of people are asking this. One the one hand, you have that doctor in Wuhan who got in trouble early on for talking about the cluster. He worked in a big hospital and treated a lot of patients with the virus, though likely for other ailments. He died within a month at 32 years old and no known underlying problems. So you might suspect he got quite a dose of airborne virus.

OTOH there's that Washington group of 60, none with any symptoms at all, who showed up for choir practice. 45 of them came down with the virus and two died (last time I heard) even though any exposure must have been miniscule. So it's all rather puzzling.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

I think we are all poorly informed and may reason only a few simplicities .
No known cases in our area .


----------



## Luchesi

clavichorder said:


> My brother's friend still thinks it's a hoax. He called it a "rich people disease" implying that its something that only celebrities are pretending to come down with. He acts like he is joking when he says this but he isn't. He's one of those people who is on some underground conspiracy theory forum online.


Is the CDC looking for volunteers they can do testing upon? Is he "patriotic"? They usually are.


----------



## Luchesi

Kieran said:


> I think the jury is still out on how long the virus lasts on certain surfaces, including garments, but you know, I don't know if this is common to to others as well, but I feel strange in the supermarket if I want to check a Best Before date, or ingredients on some item, and I lift it........but then decide I don't want it, and put it back on the shelf.
> 
> I feel the dreaded eyes of hysterical snitches and witch-finders fall upon me, and I scurry away in shame. Certainly, I quarantine some food items, just leave them in the cool, spare bedroom a couple of days before going near them again. Some beer too, though ironically enough, alcohol based handwashes are very effective. But does this extend to swigging from the bottle too? I shrug my shoulders in defeat at that one...


I've heard that heat not cold is what you want.

Sit in your car in the Sun at 133ﾟF for 15 to 20 min, - inhale deeply (if you can stand it)

….according to research it deactivates viruses of this 'family'


----------



## Guest

A Doctor of Pathology has just written this in our online national newspaper below-the-line. It makes sense to me, though as a breast cancer survivor (to date) I am less fearful than others:

1. A successful vaccine is critical to slow the progression of the virus though the community.

2. The rate of spread into the community of the virus will only reduce when the total percentage of people who are immune to the virus by (a) successful vaccination or (b) naturally after recovery from the illness, climbs to a figure above about 60%.

3. At that figure the phenomenon of ‘herd’ immunity starts to have an increasing effect. All vaccination programs rely on this principle hence previous concern for the Anti-vaccination idiots. 

4. ‘Flattening the curve’ will prolong the time to pass the 60% immune figure but will not change the number of people who need to be immune for ‘herd’ protection to occur.

5. Self isolation will slow the progression rate of disease into the community allowing time to develop vaccines and the overwhelmed health services to cope with the disease in a more effective way. Fewer people at any one time will need critical ICU care meaning more people getting access to it when needed! It is actually saving lives.

The Science behind this reported research is totally valid, It is your memory B cells that protects you from re-infection after vaccination or natural illness recovery. A rapid, sensitive and specific test to identify their presence in the population will allow immediate identification of those people who are immune and can return safely to the workforce thereby also further reducing the risk of transmission overall. That knowledge is absolutely critical for all front line people in our community.

In the meantime self-isolation and stringent cleanliness is something EVERYONE can do constructively to help ALL the incredibly brave frontline staff do their jobs as safely as possible and to provide valuable time for the hard working scientists to actually help as many of us as possible survive this bloody epidemic over the next 12 to 18 months.


----------



## Kieran

Luchesi said:


> I've heard that heat not cold is what you want.
> 
> Sit in your car in the Sun at 133ﾟF for 15 to 20 min, - inhale deeply (if you can stand it)
> 
> ….according to research it deactivates viruses of this 'family'


I'll be swigging boiling bubbles from the neck of the beer bottle at that temperature :lol:


----------



## KenOC

"A man has been *rescued by helicopter* from the Pyrenees after trying to walk from France to Spain to buy cheap cigarettes, reports say.

"The local mountain rescue service said the man was found "exhausted, shivering, cold and lost" when he was eventually picked up.

"Despite his ordeal, he was fined 135 euros ($146; £119) for breaking coronavirus lockdown rules."


----------



## mrdoc

This is quite an interesting article on viruses, they reproduce outside of the host etc.

https://www.livescience.com/53272-what-is-a-virus.html


----------



## erki

Luchesi said:


> Sit in your car in the Sun at 133ﾟF for 15 to 20 min, - inhale deeply (if you can stand it)
> 
> ….according to research it deactivates viruses of this 'family'


So good finnish/estonian/russian sauna with temp 90-100*C would do well....darn, they closed down all spas and will not let us to drive to our summerhouses where most of the saunas are. But I am lucky my brother whom we share the property just put up a barrel-sauna last November. Have to do some serious inhaling.


----------



## Guest

We now have quite a number of cases of Coronavirus for people in their 30s in Australia. On the news tonight.


----------



## Guest

mrdoc said:


> This is quite an interesting article on viruses, they reproduce outside of the host etc.
> 
> https://www.livescience.com/53272-what-is-a-virus.html


It was always the case, and known to people with three quarters of a human brain, that pandemics could kill many more people and more quickly than 'climate change'.


----------



## Jacck

Christabel said:


> It was always the case, and known to people with three quarters of a human brain, that pandemics could kill many more people and more quickly than 'climate change'.


Really? The climate change has the potential to disrupt food production worldwide, change weather patterns, cause water shortages etc. The results will be famines, migrations, wars and ultimately death. The problem is that the changes happen slowly enough for the 3/4brains to be able to deny that they are happening. When you see the epic scale of scientific illiteracy among the conservative minded people, there is little hope to implement changes to stop it in time. The pandemic has been likened to a tanker, that if you implement measures now, they will be visible in 3 weeks. With climate change, measures are going to work in terms of decades. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/07/science/climate-change-mass-extinction.html


----------



## Jacck

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/politics/trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus.html
Trump touting the chloroquine makes me really suspicious. Someone should look into the financial interests behind this. Has Trump or Kushner invested in the stocks of the companies selling this drug?


----------



## Flamme

''Take, it, take, whaddaya have 2 lose???'' In a hushed tone lmao..:lol:


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/politics/trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus.html
> Trump touting the chloroquine makes me really suspicious. Someone should look into the financial interests behind this. Has Trump or Kushner invested in the stocks of the companies selling this drug?


I have always wondered if he arranges phone calls to his buddies before he issues some kind of ruling that has an effect on markets.


----------



## Luchesi

"You know, you get so many people who do well and then some people who just, bingo, they're on a respirator, they're on ECMO (a cardio-pulmonary machine) and they're dead," Fauci told me when I interviewed him for my podcast, "Coronavirus: Fact vs. Fiction." 
"I mean, the dichotomy between that, there's something there, Sanjay, that we're missing from a pathogenesis standpoint. And I don't think it's only if you're elderly or if you have underlying conditions. There's something else going on there that hopefully we'll ultimately figure out."

So, what could be behind it? Scientists and researchers wonder if the answer could lie in our genes and are beginning to try and understand what differentiates people who get mild cases from those who die.
One possibility is a gene variation in the ACE2 gene. ACE2 is an enzyme that attaches to the outer surface of cells in the lungs, as well as the heart. In an article in Science magazine, Immunologist Dr. Philip Murphy of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said that "variations in the ACE2 gene that alter the receptor could make it easier or harder for the virus to get into lung cells." 

It is also possible that a critical ingredient produced by the body, known as surfactant, which better allows the lungs to expand and contract, becomes depleted in some patients infected with the coronavirus. If you think of your lungs as a sponge, surfactant would be the detergent which would make them soft and pliable. Without surfactant, however, your lung becomes stiff and hard to squeeze. It may be why some patients continue to struggle even on a breathing machine.

Another avenue being pursued is better understanding how your body's immune system responds to viruses and bacteria in the first place. In some young, healthy people, a very reactive immune system could lead to a massive inflammatory storm that could overwhelm the lungs and other organs. In those cases, it is not an aged or weakened immune system that is the problem -- it is one that works too well. Some front line clinicians have speculated that is why steroids, an immune system suppressant, seem to offer benefit in some people.
Perhaps it is that some younger healthier people, thinking they are not vulnerable to this disease, have been less diligent about practicing physical distancing, and as a result have been exposed to much larger viral loads from the environment.
To better define the underlying pathology could still take months, and may be variable in patients, no matter their age. While it is true that a significant percentage of young people may be at increased risk because Americans have such a high baseline rate of pre-existing diseases such as diabetes, it is the perfectly healthy young people, like Ben and Conrad, we need to better understand. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> the molecules are actually quite fragile and breakup easily, thus "killing" the virus. Most viruses do not survive in the external environment for too long - oxidation, ionization, radiation, temperature, chemical substances etc - destroy them.


I have no formal education in biology, a bad oversight. I enjoy hearing what people like you have to say about the subject.

So viruses are not alive, yet they seem to be more than mere chemicals. Do biologists have a definition of "alive"?


----------



## Totenfeier

erki said:


> I have always wondered if he arranges phone calls to his buddies before he issues some kind of ruling that has an effect on markets.


In Nixon's case, it was "follow the money." In Trump's case, a simple "Watch the chase after the money" will, I believe, do.


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> It was always the case, and known to people with three quarters of a human brain, that pandemics could kill many more people and more quickly than 'climate change'.


Go forth and sin no more my child.


----------



## AeolianStrains

Open Book said:


> I have no formal education in biology, a bad oversight. I enjoy hearing what people like you have to say about the subject.
> 
> So viruses are not alive, yet they seem to be more than mere chemicals. Do biologists have a definition of "alive"?


I've had long conversations with experts (and helped edit an article) on this very subject. The answer is that it's arbitrary. Viruses aren't alive in the same sense of bacteria or eukaryotes, but if we alter or expand the definition of life it could easily include viruses while still excluding other non-living matter.


----------



## pianozach

erki said:


> I have always wondered if he arranges phone calls to his buddies before he issues some kind of ruling that has an effect on markets.


Oh, ya think? Yes, some serious hanky-panky.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...trade-talks-goose-the-stock-market-2019-10-17


----------



## mountmccabe

Kieran said:


> Some beer too, though ironically enough, alcohol based handwashes are very effective. But does this extend to swigging from the bottle too? I shrug my shoulders in defeat at that one...


Hand sanitizer is recommended to be at least 60% alcohol to be effective. Most hard alcohols aren't that high; wines and beers are much lower.


----------



## Jacck

China promotes bear bile as coronavirus treatment
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...s-bear-bile-as-coronavirus-covid19-treatment/


----------



## elgar's ghost

UK PM now in intensive care.


----------



## eljr

elgars ghost said:


> UK PM now in intensive care.


wow... he looked not too bad just the other day


----------



## eljr

AeolianStrains said:


> I've had long conversations with experts (and helped edit an article) on this very subject. The answer is that it's arbitrary. Viruses aren't alive in the same sense of bacteria or eukaryotes, but if we alter or expand the definition of life it could easily include viruses while still excluding other non-living matter.


all matter could be considered alive


----------



## Totenfeier

Jacck said:


> China promotes bear bile as coronavirus treatment
> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...s-bear-bile-as-coronavirus-covid19-treatment/


I don't want to be that guy - never have - but I've got to:

China would, wouldn't they?


----------



## KenOC

elgars ghost said:


> UK PM now in intensive care.


Entered the hospital yesterday for "routine tests". He was given oxygen before being moved to the ICU, which seems worrisome.. Wishing him the best.


----------



## AeolianStrains

eljr said:


> all matter could be considered alive


Living v. non-living is an artificial construct. Where do we draw the line? Nearly everything is on a continuum, and there will always be gray areas.


----------



## pianozach

elgars ghost said:


> UK PM now in intensive care.


On March 3rd he was proudly telling reporters that he shakes hands with everybody, even coronavirus patients.

Four weeks later he's in ICU.

The stupid, it burns.

.

On a related note, two days ago, Trump cautioned everyone to wear face masks in public, but then told reporters he won't be wearing one.


----------



## Luchesi

AeolianStrains said:


> Living v. non-living is an artificial construct. Where do we draw the line? Nearly everything is on a continuum, and there will always be gray areas.


Origin-of-the-major-groups-of-RNA-viruses-of-eukaryotes. *Coronaviruses* constitute the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae, in the *family Coronaviridae*, order Nidovirales, and realm Riboviria


----------



## arpeggio

The lack of empathy that has been displayed by some of the members is disgusting.

Good news for these heartless individuals is that we can not confront them because we would be violating the forums rules of conduct.


----------



## Guest

arpeggio said:


> The lack of empathy that has been displayed by some of the members is disgusting.
> 
> Good news for these heartless individuals is that we can not confront them because we would be violating the forums rules of conduct.


That's always my beef here; one cohort says what it likes and whenever somebody challenges 'the orthodoxy' the thread is instantly closed down.


----------



## erki

arpeggio said:


> The lack of empathy that has been displayed by some of the members is disgusting.


Often the level of empathy towards specific individual correlates this individual own capability to show some.


----------



## perempe

She said yesterday that 2 of her ~600 children had been treated for pneumonia in the local hospital last week. both are around 2 years of age.


----------



## Kieran

Very sad and concerned to hear about Boris Johnson, hopefully he recovers soon and gets back to work...


----------



## perempe

Boris wanted herd immunity a few days ago, this is what he got.


----------



## Kieran

perempe said:


> Boris wanted herd immunity, this is what he got.


Everybody wants herd immunity. Boris was just following the scientific advice he was given by up to six expert agencies, which I've listed elsewhere in this thread. I hope he recovers and is back to work soon. It's brutally tribalist and totally regressive to be gloating over his illness. Now, maybe you're not "gloating" but I see so many uninteresting people playing tribal politics during this crisis, it's difficult to tell the difference sometimes...


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> Boris was just following the scientific advice he was given by up to six expert agencies, ..


and he ignored the other 600 expert agencies

This is the most inane of posts. It's like unearthing the one guy who denies climate change but has a degree.


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> and he ignored the other 600 expert agencies
> 
> This is the most inane of posts. It's like unearthing the one guy who denies climate change but has a degree.


Be careful who you dismiss. You can root around for yourself the experts he chose to work with, they're all of a higher calibre than you or I. Feel free to be a pseudonymous expert, it's cheap and it's easy. But no government is taking on board the advice of "600 expert agencies..."


----------



## mrdoc

We still have people ignoring our stage 4 lock down most but not all are teenagers, my neighbor was visited by one of his friends this morning and he has 2 young children. This really annoys me as most people are sticking to the rules, but the police are supposed to be enforcing the situation and just give them warnings they should be arrested and put into solitary confinement and fined a minimum of say$1000. :devil:


----------



## Kieran

mrdoc said:


> We still have people ignoring our stage 4 lock down most but not all are teenagers, my neighbor was visited by one of his friends this morning and he has 2 young children. This really annoys me as most people are sticking to the rules, but the police are supposed to be enforcing the situation and just give them warnings they should be arrested and put into solitary confinement and fined a minimum of say$1000. :devil:


Why stop at that? Just tie them downwind of the ICU :lol:

But the same is happening here in Ireland. I think most people are observing the recommended distances but yesterday I was walking and saw small groups have friendly chats. I have to believe that there's a good chance that social distancing has had success in slowing the spread, but I agree, it's really annoying to watch people do this, and I can only conclude that they're doing it deliberately, or even provocatively. I don't believe that anyone can forget each day they wake up, that's we're in extraordinary circumstances...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> Be careful who you dismiss. You can root around for yourself the experts he chose to work with, they're all of a higher calibre than you or I. Feel free to be a pseudonymous expert, it's cheap and it's easy. But no government is taking on board the advice of "600 expert agencies..."


I find it pretty stupid to rush into "herd immunity" if you do not know what you are dealing with. It is better to lock down at the beginning, slow the spread, learn about the virus and its effects, and then slowly release the lockdown. This herd immunity from the beginning was akin to a Russian roulette. We do not even know if the virus leaves lasting immunity, but we will rush into herd immunity that is going to kill 2% of the nation, right?


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> I find it pretty stupid to rush into "herd immunity" if you do not know what you are dealing with. It is better to lock down at the beginning, slow the spread, learn about the virus and its effects, and then slowly release the lockdown. This herd immunity from the beginning was akin to a Russian roulette. We do not even know if the virus leaves lasting immunity, but we will rush into herd immunity that is going to kill 2% of the nation, right?


He should have consulted you, maybe? I gave you a list of the virologists, epidemiologists, infectious disease experts etc that his government consulted.  They're better qualified to answer your question. I doubt they're right now googling chat sites like this, to find the answers. I doubt they're "pretty stupid" too...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> He should have consulted you, maybe? I gave you a list of the virologists, epidemiologists, infectious disease experts etc that his government consulted. They're better qualified to answer your question. I doubt they're right now googling chat sites like this, to find the answers. I doubt they're "pretty stupid" too...


I don't have any questions for your experts. A common sense is enough to see that what I wrote is true. Do you rush into danger if you don't know what you are dealing with, or do you first study the situation, learn about the danger and prepare yourself accordingly? Boris likely listened only to those experts, whose advice he wanted to hear. He was cynical enough to be willing to sacrifice the old, the weak and even joked about it inappropriately ("operation last gasp")


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> I don't have any questions for your experts. A common sense is enough to see that what I wrote is true. Do you rush into danger if you don't know what you are dealing with, or do you first study the situation, learn about the danger and prepare yourself accordingly? Boris likely listened only to those experts, whose advice he wanted to hear. He was cynical enough to be willing to sacrifice the old, the weak and even joked about it inappropriately ("operation last gasp")


This is speculation on your part, based upon bad political ideas. It's not expertise into who he consulted (which I had to provide to you previously because although you didn't know how he formulated his policy, you were generous enough with your opinion), and it's certainly not expertise you yourself have gained into infectious disease, viruses, etc. Your "expertise" is based around friendly sites you found on google, and a bad political starting point. I'm sure the real experts are grateful not to be grilled by you on this stuff they've studied for decades...


----------



## EdwardBast

Kieran said:


> Why stop at that? Just tie them downwind of the ICU :lol:
> 
> But the same is happening here in Ireland. *I think most people are observing the recommended distances but yesterday I was walking and saw small groups have friendly chats.* I have to believe that there's a good chance that social distancing has had success in slowing the spread, but I agree, it's really annoying to watch people do this, and I can only conclude that they're doing it deliberately, or even provocatively. I don't believe that anyone can forget each day they wake up, that's we're in extraordinary circumstances...


Are you sure these groups aren't family units living under the same roof? In my (rural) community I've seen more such groups out and about recently than at any other time in the last decade, but here it seems to be families with more time together because they are locked out of school and work.


----------



## Flamme

When I come from work I take EVERYTHING I had on me and hang it out 2 dry...My jacket, pants, t shirt, backpack...Also shower.


----------



## Kieran

EdwardBast said:


> Are you sure these groups aren't family units living under the same roof? In my (rural) community I've seen more such groups out and about recently than at any other time in the last decade, but here it seems to be families with more time together because they are locked out of school and work.


Yes, I'm sure. I also live in a rural community and part of the group was my two neighbours, who are a couple without children. We each share a space to walk, where we also can avoid each other. Other times has been in the supermarket, witnessing people greet each other and catch up, blocking aisles at times. I wouldn't criticise family gatherings, or people who are living together anyway...

EDIT: by the way, I have huge sympathy for families who have to get the kids out to exercise etc, and I don't think it's easy. I think in general, people have been great at social distancing, but there are occasions when I roll my eyes...


----------



## starthrower

The contagion factor. We can't let our guard down in the face of this "truly dastardly bug".

https://www.propublica.org/article/...-to-beat-coronavirus?utm_source=pocket-newtab


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> This is speculation on your part, based upon bad political ideas. It's not expertise into who he consulted (which I had to provide to you previously because although you didn't know how he formulated his policy, you were generous enough with your opinion), and it's certainly not expertise you yourself have gained into infectious disease, viruses, etc. Your "expertise" is based around friendly sites you found on google, and a bad political starting point. I'm sure the real experts are grateful not to be grilled by you on this stuff they've studied for decades...


How are you so certain about my expertise? I have a medical education, and though I am no infectious disease expert, I have done some research at the intersection of immunology. I know quite a lot about T cells, B cells, macrophages and cytokines and the role of interferons in antiviral immunity. I also know enough about viral diseases to be cautious. They can cause lasting damage like chronic fatigue syndrom etc.

The immune response to the novel virus is not well studied. It is unknown, if it leaves lasting immunity. How then can you rush into "herd immunity"? Also, I have been following the experts in my country and they are not unified in their views how to deal with it. The fact is, that no one is an expert today. No one alive remembers a pandemic like this.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> How are you so certain about my expertise? I have a medical education, and though I am no infectious disease expert, I have done some research at the intersection of immunology. I know quite a lot about T cells, B cells, macrophages and cytokines and the role of interferons in antiviral immunity. I also know enough about viral diseases to be cautious. They can cause lasting damage like chronic fatigue syndrom etc.
> 
> The immune response to the novel virus is not well studied. It is unknown, if it leaves lasting immunity. How then can you rush into "herd immunity"? Also, I have been following the experts in my country and they are not unified in their views how to deal with it. The fact is, that no one is an expert today. No one alive remembers a pandemic like this.


Thankfully you've admitted that your expertise in this matter is lesser than the virus, infectious disease and immunity agencies that formed the policy pursued by Boris Johnson and his government.

Thankfully you've also admitted that "I have been following the experts in my country and they are not unified in their views how to deal with it. The fact is, that no one is an expert today," which suggests that perhaps a government may get it wrong, but for the right reasons, or that they all might get it wrong, or that some of them maybe right, even partly, etc. I've stated similar a long time ago in this same thread. This is, at least, a start.

Another start maybe that when politicians you despise gets so sick they're forced to go into ICU, that a tad of compassion is maybe more appropriate than your usual tribal politics nonsense. It really is the least interesting area of politics to roll around in...


----------



## erki

In my country people follow the restrictions pretty universally. Some exceptions indeed, but over all in good sense. Also we have some government members who getting rather exited to impose more restrictions. It seems to be their dream come true. We have to be very alert when our freedoms are taken.


----------



## Flamme

2day I saw a list of offical examples of symptoms ov Corona in my country and it is strange how fluid they are and although I read before that the running nose and a ''wet'' cough are NOT the symptoms of Covid now I learned THEY ARE. And those are typical spring allergy symptoms from blooming of flowers, pollen and cut grass...


----------



## DaveM

starthrower said:


> The contagion factor. We can't let our guard down in the face of this "truly dastardly bug".
> 
> https://www.propublica.org/article/...-to-beat-coronavirus?utm_source=pocket-newtab


Interesting article. Some of it is spent on the subject of spread of the virus from 'asymptomatic' people. I've often wondered how 'asymptomatic' these people are if they were questioned closely. There was this in the article:

_"Most of the people who were thought to be asymptomatic aren't truly asymptomatic," said Van Kerkhove. "When we went back and interviewed them, most of them said, actually I didn't feel well but I didn't think it was an important thing to mention. I had a low-grade temperature, or aches, but I didn't think that counted."_


----------



## starthrower

DaveM said:


> Interesting article. Some of it is spent on the subject of spread of the virus from 'asymptomatic' people. I've often wondered how 'asymptomatic' these people are if they were questioned closely. There was this in the article:
> 
> _"Most of the people who were thought to be asymptomatic aren't truly asymptomatic," said Van Kerkhove. "When we went back and interviewed them, most of them said, actually I didn't feel well but I didn't think it was an important thing to mention. I had a low-grade temperature, or aches, but I didn't think that counted."_


One would assume by this point that most citizens are educated concerning the most obvious symptoms. But even taking that for granted it can be hard to know without a test. I have many days when I feel achy. I'm sure most people over 50 experience this as part of getting older. For those still working, do we call in sick every time we feel a little achy? How many take their temperature while busily getting ready for work in the morning? Sooner or later the world has to get moving again so it seems like the logical answer is to make sure everybody going to work has protective equipment. The fact that many states in the US do not have laws requiring paid sick leave only exacerbates the problem.


----------



## DaveM

News reporting can raise more questions than it answers. It has just been reported that Boris Johnson is receiving oxygen because of low oxygen levels, but is not on a ventilator and ‘has not been diagnosed with pneumonia’. Well, I’ll step in and diagnose it for them: Supplemental oxygen means that there is pneumonia albeit not severe enough to require a ventilator. Hopefully, he won’t move into a more severe stage.


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> Thankfully you've admitted that your expertise in this matter is lesser than the virus, infectious disease and immunity agencies that formed the policy pursued by Boris Johnson and his government.
> 
> Thankfully you've also admitted that "I have been following the experts in my country and they are not unified in their views how to deal with it. The fact is, that no one is an expert today," which suggests that perhaps a government may get it wrong, but for the right reasons, or that they all might get it wrong, or that some of them maybe right, even partly, etc. I've stated similar a long time ago in this same thread. This is, at least, a start.
> 
> Another start maybe that when politicians you despise gets so sick they're forced to go into ICU, that a tad of compassion is maybe more appropriate than your usual tribal politics nonsense. It really is the least interesting area of politics to roll around in...


I did not wish Boris any harm, nor did I celebrate that he is in the ICU, so why this overreaction? I personally wish him well, hope he recovers and learns a lesson from it and hopefully becomes a little more humble as a result. There are politicians I would wish dead, because the world would be a better place with less suffering without them, but Boris is not one of them.


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> On March 3rd he was proudly telling reporters that he shakes hands with everybody, even coronavirus patients.
> 
> Four weeks later he's in ICU.
> 
> The stupid, it burns.
> 
> .
> 
> On a related note, two days ago, Trump cautioned everyone to wear face masks in public, but then told reporters he won't be wearing one.





Kieran said:


> Everybody wants herd immunity. *Boris was just following the scientific advice he was given by up to six expert agencies*, which I've listed elsewhere in this thread. I hope he recovers and is back to work soon. It's brutally tribalist and totally regressive to be gloating over his illness. Now, maybe you're not "gloating" but I see so many uninteresting people playing tribal politics during this crisis, it's difficult to tell the difference sometimes...


Actually, Boris is quite the science denier. I'm sure he was told to limit his exposure, and yet he decided that it wasn't bad enough to follow simple advice to NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH PEOPLE.

Same with Trump. Tells people to wear masks, but say HE won't. Why is that? Science denier. Knows MORE than ANYONE on ANY subject you can name.



eljr said:


> and he ignored the other 600 expert agencies
> 
> This is the most inane of posts. It's like unearthing the one guy who denies climate change but has a degree.


I didn't see the info about Boris' 6 agencies nor the 600 agencies, and I cannot get up enough energy to even care.

But I have seen the timeline in the US, and Mr. Trump deliberately ignored the warnings, and muzzled anyone who tried to get proper information to the public. He deliberately made up falsehoods to tell the public AS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

He directed his team to trash binders of information about EVERYTHING from the two previous administrations, including warnings about a very real threat of a pandemic. Roughly two thirds of Trump's transition team are no longer serving in the administration. Some never had a single conversation with those they were replacing.

Hubris.

Rather than heed the warnings, embrace the planning and preserve the structures and budgets that had been bequeathed to him, the president ignored the risk of a pandemic.

AND THEN Trump rallied his base to treat coronavirus as a 'hoax'. TRUE. There's video/audio. He blamed the press for acting hysterically about the virus. He downplayed its dangers, saying against expert opinion it was on par with the flu.



DaveM said:


> . . .
> 
> _"Most of the people who were thought to be asymptomatic aren't truly asymptomatic," said Van Kerkhove. "When we went back and interviewed them, most of them said, actually I didn't feel well but I didn't think it was an important thing to mention. I had a low-grade temperature, or aches, but I didn't think that counted."_


We had warnings. We had systems that were dismantled or gutted.

But the "War on Science" is real. It's disguised by a claim that there's a War On Christianity, when, in fact, it is Christianity that is waging a war.

Yeah, Americans have always had a thread of anti-intellectualism going, but, for the most part we've respected science. We've been proud of our technological advances, from electricity to phones, to space travel and computers. But now we mock the intellectuals, we mock the science, and here we are: A poorly handled pandemic.

With a head of state in ICU. Dumbass. Overwheening hag-born pigeon-egg.


----------



## Open Book

Kieran said:


> He should have consulted you, maybe? I gave you a list of the virologists, epidemiologists, infectious disease experts etc that his government consulted. They're better qualified to answer your question. I doubt they're right now googling chat sites like this, to find the answers. I doubt they're "pretty stupid" too...


Experts can be stupid, yes. It makes sense to err on the side of caution and not assume there is any immunity imparted from having this disease. What a terrible mistake it would be if we let everyone get it only to find that everyone can keep on getting it and might die the second or third time.

Experts are experts but they have pressures put on them to make certain judgments, like politicians urging them to let people go back to work as soon as possible in order to save what is left of the economy.


----------



## Room2201974

Only on TC can one find a Dubliner defending the decisions of Her Magesty's Government. I bet that makes for wonderful pub conversation.


----------



## Kieran

Room2201974 said:


> Only on TC can one find a Dubliner defending the decisions of Her Magesty's Government. I bet that makes for wonderful pub conversation.


:lol:

I'm not so much defending his decisions, other than his decision to listen to several agencies of experts in the many fields required to battle the spread of the virus. I applaud all governments battling this, as I think they're all trying their best to make sense of what's happening, and act as firmly and best as they can. Really though, I despise tribalism in politics, whatever way it manifests itself. I prefer when people are reasonable and not wholly invested in either side, to the extent that it warps their judgment, and their sense of fairness. Fact is, neither left nor right, progressive or conservative, have all the answers.

But I do like Boris, too, I think he's good for the UK, I've enjoyed reading his books and articles long before he was even mayor of London, he's much different than the stereotypes would have him...


----------



## Jacck

Plasma from coronavirus survivors found to help severely ill patients 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...survivors-found-to-help-severely-ill-patients


----------



## Flamme

I have a fear they will NEVER find a cure...I dont know why...Just a feeling


----------



## Jacck

they have done some serological tests in Italy
https://translate.google.cz/transla...iques-pratiques-a-grande-echelle_3902461.html
and found out that 13 to 14% of people were immunized.
Our government is starting similar probes to find out how many people had it.


----------



## senza sordino

I spoke to my father, 76 years old, two days ago. He's doing fine. My parents don't go out much at all these days. My sister who works at a supermarket shops for them. In fact, she's able to put aside items as they get shipped in before those items are placed on shelves and devoured by customers. But he was quite angry at the hoarding and general lack of good will toward others in this difficult time. And I agree with him. I really will need toilet paper soon, and there isn't any available. If I go shop to shop for a day or two I might find some, but that rather defeats the goal of self isolation.

I read an article yesterday that tried to explain the lack of toilet paper. It says that people are now at home and not at work so they need more toilet paper for their home. Home toilet paper is different from the industrial type you find at work places. Perhaps this is true, but I don't think it explains the sudden raiding of the supermarkets of all the paper products and cleaning supplies. 

My local grocery store has no paper products, no cleaning supplies, no flour, and the dairy section is sparse. Signs everywhere say the limit is one per person.

Can this lack of food really be explained by spending more time at home, less time at work and not eating out at restaurants and not by hoarding? Perhaps some of it. But not all of it, I think there is some hoarding and panic buying. We've certainly seen the anecdotal reports on the television or seen it personally. 

I wish these supermarkets had restricted items to one per person sooner. Of course, this doesn't stop people from going several times per day, which I have also seen. 

My parents remember ration books, because rationing still continued in the UK until the early 50s. I mentioned that to him on our phone call and he was all for it. That might be hard to implement today, but worth considering.


----------



## elgar's ghost

^
^

Pleased to hear that your parents are OK, SS.

I went to do my weekly grocery run at the supermarket yesterday morning c. 8:30. An outside queuing process has been in operation for two weeks now but as with last week's visit I didn't have to wait long. Essential items in short supply is annoying but at least there is a limit of two items per person for things like toilet and kitchen rolls, antiseptic wipes etc. and the shelves were full even though by that time the usual opening time locusts would have already swept through the place. 

One bonus with the queuing/limited numbers policy is that the supermarket isn't as rammed as it usually was pre-virus - it makes a nice change to shop with room to manoeuvre, and during this wretched time we need all the little morale-boosters we can get.


----------



## Kieran

I read somewhere that the hoarding of toilet roll and general goods is a psychological one, in that people can't grasp that they can be kept safe by simply washing their hands, so they're "taking control", as it were, and collecting toilet roll. Bizarre, I know. Frankly, I think it's embarrassing to see how people reacted in supermarkets to this crisis...


----------



## Sad Al

Kieran said:


> it's embarrassing to see how people reacted in supermarkets to this crisis...


Yeah, all those magnificent consumers in their fantastic supermarkets. Absolutely no one is interested in the fact that all of our grandchildren will be dead because of the accelerating climate crisis and the accelerating biodiversity crisis. Moreover, all of our grand-grandchildren will not ever exist.


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> they have done some serological tests in Italy
> https://translate.google.cz/transla...iques-pratiques-a-grande-echelle_3902461.html
> and found out that 13 to 14% of people were immunized.
> Our government is starting similar probes to find out how many people had it.


So there will be a long way to reach herd immunity.

In Denmark the counts are even lower, from 2 - 3 %.


----------



## elgar's ghost

^
^

To Keiran...

Someone posted a great cartoon earlier in the thread - just a pair of eyes are seen peering out from a shelter made from toilet rolls.

In any situation where shortages may occur there are always going to be a number of greedy and stupid people making things worse.


----------



## Sad Al

elgars ghost said:


> ^
> ^ a number of greedy and stupid people making things worse.


On the other hand, Darwinian greediness gives you the unfair advantage, although it is stupid of course. Life is anyway stupid, as Shakespeare pointed out in Macbeth 5:5.


----------



## premont

Open Book said:


> Experts can be stupid, yes.


This is a new virus, experts are only gradually getting to know it. So they still often have to make a qualified guess, e.g. partly deducing from the behavior of other (known) corona vira. But I agree that principles of cautiousness ought to prevail at the actual level of knowledge.

But the most depressing fact is that, even if we succeed in eradicating the virus in our own country, we will soon get it again from abroad.


----------



## Sad Al

It's not depressing. We are far too many on this planet. The planet needs a correction in 2020. Voilà! Enter the Coronavirus. The new Superhero.


----------



## erki

Sad Al said:


> It's not depressing. We are far too many on this planet. The planet needs a correction in 2020. Voilà! Enter the Coronavirus. The new Superhero.


You have a point and we are not out of the water yet - not with virus and not with the economy. There are many thing we do wrong as a society and big pandemic seems to be the most effective way to correct it. However I feel it will not happen this time. And it will give us a valuable lesson. If we can learn from it is another question. Some politicians getting ready for making most of the harvest season already.


----------



## Guest

Sad Al said:


> It's not depressing. We are far too many on this planet. The planet needs a correction in 2020. Voilà! Enter the Coronavirus. The new Superhero.


I'm obviously mistaken; I was led to believe we exist in a 'climate emergency' which requires religious zeal, acolytes and Old Testament fire and brimstone to keep the issue on the boil. Anyone with any smarts *at all* knows, or already knew, that viral pandemics are capable of killing many millions of people with a speed and efficiency that climate change zealots just don't understand - and don't want to understand. 50 million from Spanish flu, with a series of other pandemics afterwards including, but not limited to TB and Polio.

But I digress; excuse me for a moment but I want to look over the latest drawings on the internet of a high-rise casino which is being built *right on Sydney Harbour*.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> Be careful who you dismiss. You can root around for yourself the experts he chose to work with, they're all of a higher calibre than you or I. Feel free to be a pseudonymous expert, it's cheap and it's easy. But no government is taking on board the advice of "600 expert agencies..."


so you steadfastly believe there is no global warming, got it and god bless


----------



## eljr

Sad Al said:


> We are far too many on this planet.


Tell me how you calculated this.


----------



## Bigbang

Flamme said:


> I have a fear they will NEVER find a cure...I dont know why...Just a feeling


You mean find a vaccine? Cure is generally not the goal as it is too varied and mutates. The fact is the planet is very lucky that is is not far worse than it is. And planet earth inhabitants have been put on notice: One is to stock up on medical supplies and educate everyone to be prepared for the next one so we do not spread it so easily. And, we can begin the process of knowing the course we are on is heading down a path of the unknown. I do not think it is wise to continue the idea that we can simply dominate in any way we wish but to know we exist with nature (sentient life) and what we do can and will cause repercussion. Notice I did not go into all this world leaders, governments and all that stuff, because eventually the power must come to the collective power of the people.


----------



## eljr

mrdoc said:


> We still have people ignoring our stage 4 lock down most but not all are teenagers, :


citation please


----------



## Bigbang

Sad Al said:


> Yeah, all those magnificent consumers in their fantastic supermarkets. Absolutely no one is interested in the fact that all of our grandchildren will be dead because of the accelerating climate crisis and the accelerating biodiversity crisis. Moreover, all of our grand-grandchildren will not ever exist.


We all need prophets, that is for sure...to lead us down another dead end.....

No doubt the climate change issue is a big challenge but actually we are handing down all our deficits down to them in the form of you pay the bill. Well, what a bummer. One can keep complaining hoping someone will listen and take charge or sit in our nice home (listen folks, not many will trade their living quarters for a cave, no matter how nice it was to the elite back thousands of years ago) or we can sit back and listen to Mozart cheer us up while we go down or maybe while we go up......


----------



## Bigbang

senza sordino said:


> I spoke to my father, 76 years old, two days ago. He's doing fine. My parents don't go out much at all these days. My sister who works at a supermarket shops for them. In fact, she's able to put aside items as they get shipped in before those items are placed on shelves and devoured by customers. But he was quite angry at the hoarding and general lack of good will toward others in this difficult time. And I agree with him. I really will need toilet paper soon, and there isn't any available. If I go shop to shop for a day or two I might find some, but that rather defeats the goal of self isolation.
> 
> I read an article yesterday that tried to explain the lack of toilet paper. It says that people are now at home and not at work so they need more toilet paper for their home. Home toilet paper is different from the industrial type you find at work places. Perhaps this is true, but I don't think it explains the sudden raiding of the supermarkets of all the paper products and cleaning supplies.
> 
> My local grocery store has no paper products, no cleaning supplies, no flour, and the dairy section is sparse. Signs everywhere say the limit is one per person.
> 
> Can this lack of food really be explained by spending more time at home, less time at work and not eating out at restaurants and not by hoarding? Perhaps some of it. But not all of it, I think there is some hoarding and panic buying. We've certainly seen the anecdotal reports on the television or seen it personally.
> 
> I wish these supermarkets had restricted items to one per person sooner. Of course, this doesn't stop people from going several times per day, which I have also seen.
> 
> My parents remember ration books, because rationing still continued in the UK until the early 50s. I mentioned that to him on our phone call and he was all for it. That might be hard to implement today, but worth considering.


Do you have a costco there where your parents live? Sign up for one year membership and they will ensure you get one package of toilet paper per visit. Take advantage of other stuff for a year then do not renew. Seriously costco members are not hurting, that said I cannot speak about specifics but they are good about handling the situation if you know what I mean....they are good at customer service.


----------



## erki

USA is entering into the stage of seeking someone to blame and Trump tries to make sure he is on the accusing side.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-who.html

However I do not know that much about WHO doings in the light of corona virus(and the one two years back). Maybe someone could enlighten me.


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> so you steadfastly believe there is no global warming, got it and god bless


WTF has global warming got to do with what we were talking about?


----------



## erki

I came to realise that panic would be the (only) driving force that could move the civilisation in certain direction. As long we are talking about problems from civil and scientific point of view we will not be able to agree and do anything really. But if we can create panic and CONTROL it we would have everything we ever need. And it seems today that we have the tools too.
So let's have a panic about the climate change!


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> USA is entering into the stage of seeking someone to blame and Trump tries to make sure he is on the accusing side.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-who.html
> 
> However I do not know that much about WHO doings in the light of corona virus(and the one two years back). Maybe someone could enlighten me.


and MAGAs are going to swollow it. Just read the comment section on Breitbart
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...es-hold-on-world-health-organization-funding/
they have invested heavily emotionally into Trump to admit even to themselves that they have been conned


----------



## Guest

I got an email today from an American friend who is a Washington public servant who lives in Virginia. He inquired after our health, told about his family and then said he was not sorry to see 'greedy' business being shut down over Coronavirus. A safe and secure public servant with no concern about the jobs of others!! (He's obviously a Democrat!) No threat to his income whatsoever. I'm afraid it was a deal-breaker comment.

And: people may have 'invested heavily' in Trump (or just voted for him) but my guess is that they like it because he sticks it to the man, 'triggers' the Left so brilliantly and effectively and has brought jobs to the good old USA. Our family laughs every time he appears on TV, driving the Left into a further frenzy of loathing and self-righteousness. We must admit it has huge comic value. Trump knows how to push their buttons with consummate ease. The highlight of the week was when he was asked about "models" for Covid-19 and he etched the shape of a curve with his hands and said "this is the only model I'm interested in".

Say what you like about him - and he *is* weird - but he's not conducting a public affair with his 'intern' or using the mob as pimps, unlike former Presidents of a certain party.

Now watch my post suddenly disappear because I answered those who hate Trump in the preceding posts.


----------



## eljr

Christabel said:


> I got an email today from an American friend who is a Washington public servant who lives in Virginia. He inquired after our health, told about his family and then said he was not sorry to see 'greedy' business being shut down over Coronavirus. A safe and secure public servant with no concern about the jobs of others!! (He's obviously a Democrat!) No threat to his income whatsoever. I'm afraid it was a deal-breaker comment.
> 
> And: people may have 'invested heavily' in Trump (or just voted for him) but my guess is that they like it because he sticks it to the man, 'triggers' the Left so brilliantly and effectively and has brought jobs to the good old USA. Our family laughs every time he appears on TV, driving the Left into a further frenzy of loathing and self-righteousness. We must admit it has huge comic value. Trump knows how to push their buttons with consummate ease.
> 
> Now watch my post suddenly disappear because I answered back to those who hate Trump in the preceding posts.


very mature, always the victim tag at the end

well done!
...........


----------



## erki

Christabel said:


> We must admit it has huge comic value.


A comedian with active nuclear button is hilarious indeed.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> WTF has global warming got to do with what we were talking about?


a simple analogy too deep for you my WTF friend?


----------



## eljr

erki said:


> A comedian with active nuclear button is hilarious indeed.


He "slipped" in that post. Freudian no doubt.


----------



## Guest

erki said:


> A comedian with active nuclear button is hilarious indeed.


"Dr. Strangelove, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb". Stanley Kubrick.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> :lol:
> 
> I'm not so much defending his decisions, other than his decision to listen to several agencies of experts in the many fields required to battle the spread of the virus. I applaud all governments battling this, as I think they're all trying their best to make sense of what's happening, and act as firmly and best as they can. Really though, I despise tribalism in politics, whatever way it manifests itself. I prefer when people are reasonable and not wholly invested in either side, to the extent that it warps their judgment, and their sense of fairness. Fact is, neither left nor right, progressive or conservative, have all the answers.
> 
> But I do like Boris, too, I think he's good for the UK, I've enjoyed reading his books and articles long before he was even mayor of London, he's much different than the stereotypes would have him...


dripping with irony

peace brother


----------



## Guest

eljr said:


> very mature, always the victim tag at the end
> 
> well done!
> ...........


Glad to be of service, to enlighten with a few facts.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> I read somewhere that the hoarding of toilet roll and general goods is a psychological one, in that people can't grasp that they can be kept safe by simply washing their hands, so they're "taking control", as it were, and collecting toilet roll. Bizarre, I know. Frankly, I think it's embarrassing to see how people reacted in supermarkets to this crisis...


Yes it is embarrassing but it is completely human. 
Gathering in preparation for winter (= hording in preparation for pandemic) is not confined to human activity.


----------



## eljr

Sad Al said:


> Yeah, all those magnificent consumers in their fantastic supermarkets. Absolutely no one is interested in the fact that all of our grandchildren will be dead because of the accelerating climate crisis and the accelerating biodiversity crisis. Moreover, all of our grand-grandchildren will not ever exist.


people will adapt, only a few fragments from the sky are falling, not the entire sky


----------



## eljr

erki said:


> USA is entering into the stage of seeking someone to blame .


Entering? We are steeped in it.

It's a core tenet of Trumpism, victimization.


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> a simple analogy too deep for you my WTF friend?


The analogy I got, and I kept it as an analogy, and corrected it for you, since you were obviously flailing about, in the wrong. But don't be deceitful, and don't be coy - we were *not *discussing global warming...


----------



## Kieran

"*EU's most senior scientist resigns over bloc's handling of Covid-19 crisis"*

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/eu-most-senior-scientist-mauro-ferrari-resigns-handling-coronavirus-crisis?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3xjJrkpRTzasK3RNMmXKB4m_lrNAsp34Suq96xr_4Nxw8zfFbr2Yy1-vg#Echobox=1586347431


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> The analogy I got, and I kept it as an analogy, and corrected it for you, since you were obviously flailing about, in the wrong. But don't be deceitful, and don't be coy - we were *not *discussing global warming...


WTF, friend.

I'd like to meet you.

peace brother


----------



## Open Book

Christabel said:


> I'm obviously mistaken; I was led to believe we exist in a 'climate emergency' which requires religious zeal, acolytes and Old Testament fire and brimstone to keep the issue on the boil. Anyone with any smarts *at all* knows, or already knew, that viral pandemics are capable of killing many millions of people with a speed and efficiency that climate change zealots just don't understand - and don't want to understand. 50 million from Spanish flu, with a series of other pandemics afterwards including, but not limited to TB and Polio.
> 
> But I digress; excuse me for a moment but I want to look over the latest drawings on the internet of a high-rise casino which is being built *right on Sydney Harbour*.


What does that prove? Only that the casino owner and/or architect don't believe in global warming. That doesn't mean that they are correct.

There are so many of us on this planet using so much energy for our many activities that I can easily believe we are affecting the atmosphere and climate. Anecdotally, I have noticed changes in my local weather patterns over my lifetime and so have others.

I think you are turned off by the alarmist nature shown when discussing climate change, but that shouldn't influence your judgment as to whether it's real or not.

I agree that discussions of the subject get too hysterical. Climate effects won't sweep through the population and level it to the extent that a viral pandemic can. They will "merely" make the planet hotter, drier, more barren, less productive. There will be less species diversity, less water and less food -- those are all serious issues. There will be wars over scarcer resources. This is not pandemic level, and people should stop using the term "existential threat" when describing climate change. But it's bad enough that we need to reverse it.


----------



## Flamme

I find speculations about the LINK between 5G nertwork and covid 19 very crazy and disturbing...It definitly emits radiation but...


----------



## Art Rock

Flamme said:


> I find speculations about the LINK between 5G nertwork and covid 19 very crazy and disturbing...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> I find speculations about the LINK between 5G nertwork and covid 19 very crazy and disturbing...It definitly emits radiation but...


some people believe that NASA is running a child trafficking ring on Mars (seriously), so what do you expect? 
https://www.thedailybeast.com/nasa-denies-that-its-running-a-child-slave-colony-on-mars
I read today that in the UK people are attacking the 5G towers in an attempt to destroy them.


----------



## Joe B

Flamme said:


> I find speculations about the LINK between 5G nertwork and covid 19 very crazy and disturbing...*It definitly emits radiation but*...


This has been called the biggest experiment in human history without the consent of the participants.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> some people believe that NASA is running a child trafficking ring on Mars (seriously)....


I hope he's not involved:


----------



## Flamme

World is going 2 hell in a handbasket...I see some things happening in '''civilsed'' coutries I never saw before...


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> WTF, friend.
> 
> I'd like to meet you.
> 
> peace brother


"WTF" standing for a harmless Irish way of saying "what the feck?" You need to hear the accent. Peace, of course. It's only disputes, they're healthy in times like these...


----------



## Open Book

"World is going 2 hell in a handbasket...I see some things happening in '''civilsed'' coutries I never saw before..."

Like the new Black Market in disinfectants?

People are buying up alcohol, wipes, masks, and disinfectants and selling them for high prices online. They are responsible for the shortages.

They should be shot.


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> There will be less species diversity, less water and less food -- those are all serious issues. There will be wars over scarcer resources. .


why would there be less food? I doubt that would be the case. Same with species diversity. Why will there be less water? scarcer resources?

l


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> "World is going 2 hell in a handbasket...I see some things happening in '''civilsed'' coutries I never saw before..."
> 
> Like the new Black Market in disinfectants?
> 
> People are buying up alcohol, wipes, masks, and disinfectants and selling them for high prices online. They are responsible for the shortages.
> 
> They should be shot.


it is the equivalent of looting, i agree


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> [...]But I digress; excuse me for a moment but I want to look over the latest drawings on the internet of a high-rise casino which is being built *right on Sydney Harbour*.


Time to get your Mont Blanc fountain pen out and send off another "Enid Scroggs (Mrs), outraged of Shalvey" letter to the local press, I'd say!


----------



## Open Book

eljr said:


> why would there be less food? I doubt that would be the case. Same with species diversity. Why will there be less water? scarcer resources?
> 
> l


Less water because less rain. Less food because more areas turning to desert. Species dying out because they can't adapt to bad side-effects brought on by warmer weather; for instance, there are many more ticks in northern regions now, and it's killing off moose.


----------



## Open Book

eljr said:


> it is the equivalent of looting, i agree


It's really capitalism, isn't it? High demand, high price. Whatever the market will bear. Such astute businesspeople.

What's the mood like in New York City, eljr?


----------



## Sad Al

Open Book said:


> Less water because less rain. Less food because more areas turning to desert. Species dying out because they can't adapt to bad side-effects brought on by warmer weather; for instance, there are many more ticks in northern regions now, and it's killing off moose.


Less food because of less fossil fuels. Food is oil. Are US frackers OK? Do Saudis have lots of cheap oil left?


----------



## Guest

TalkingHead said:


> Time to get your Mont Blanc fountain pen out and send off another "Enid Scroggs (Mrs), outraged of Shalvey" letter to the local press, I'd say!


I was waiting for exhortations of "how dare you" build a high-rise exactly where sea levels are due to rise any minute. But I don't read "The Guardian" so I may have missed all that. And I'm not into grievance porn either.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> I was waiting for exhortations of "how dare you" build a high-rise exactly where sea levels are due to rise any minute. But I don't read "The Guardian" so I may have missed all that. And I'm not into grievance porn either.


OK, Enid. Just as Christopher Hitchens said: wimmin [sic] don't really have a sense of humour.


----------



## Guest

TalkingHead said:


> OK, Enid. Just as Christopher Hitchens said: wimmin [sic] don't really have a sense of humour.


That's rich coming from both him and you!!! Triggered?


----------



## pianozach

Science deniers crack me up.


----------



## erki

Since this virus triggers a rapid immune response and severity of the small number of cases will be due to the immune system basically overreacting to the virus I wonder how people with allergies(not astma) are considered. So are they more vulnerable because the corona adds to the overreaction or the opposite - the response level is up already and the virus has lessened chance to infect?


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> Triggered?


Oh yes, totally. Bang bang!


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Science deniers crack me up.


Me too, Zach !!
Check out this very funny video (warning: strong language):


----------



## starthrower

People feel secure in their own little pot of simmering water. Many will never wake up until they start boiling like a lobster. Sadly, this is the response of many to the pandemic. But eventually it's going to sweep the heartland and slap them in the face. Maybe their stockpile of toilet paper will save them? Or that big Trump banner on their front lawns?


----------



## Guest

erki said:


> Since this virus triggers a rapid immune response and severity of the small number of cases will be due to the immune system basically overreacting to the virus I wonder how people with allergies(not astma) are considered. So are they more vulnerable because the corona adds to the overreaction or the opposite - the response level is up already and the virus has lessened chance to infect?


I think smokers are first in the line of fire, particularly in the younger cohort. The statistics seem to prove that point. Rates are high in Italy and Spain because of the large aging population and the smoking rates. Asthma sufferers are vulnerable too, but that's not something they actively choose to do.

In Australia we have things slowly levelling out but, as we haven't yet gone into winter, it could be a 'false dawn'.


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> eventually it's going to sweep the heartland and slap them in the face. Maybe their stockpile of toilet paper will save them? Or that big Trump banner on their front lawns?


lol, excellent post


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> "WTF" standing for a harmless Irish way of saying "what the feck?" You need to hear the accent. Peace, of course. It's only disputes, they're healthy in times like these...


I have a friend from North Ireland (figures, right?) who you may know from the futbol pitch, Roy Carroll.


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> Less water because less rain. Less food because more areas turning to desert. Species dying out because they can't adapt to bad side-effects brought on by warmer weather; for instance, there are many more ticks in northern regions now, and it's killing off moose.


There is more rain as the atmosphere heats up.


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> It's really capitalism, isn't it? High demand, high price. Whatever the market will bear. Such astute businesspeople.
> 
> What's the mood like in New York City, eljr?


I'd call the mood fearful. Concerned. Everyone knows someone who is sick.

A true sheltered in place mentality. Hope for tomorrow but lacking faith at this time.

It has been like a wild fire on a very windy day... incredible how fast all this happened.


----------



## Guest

*Benedictine nuns release Gregorian chants to help ease coronavirus isolation*

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ian-chants-to-help-ease-coronavirus-isolation

Let's see the Guardian haters knock this one down.


----------



## Open Book

eljr said:


> I'd call the mood fearful. Concerned. Everyone knows someone who is sick.
> 
> A true sheltered in place mentality. Hope for tomorrow but lacking faith at this time.
> 
> It has been like a wild fire on a very windy day... incredible how fast all this happened.


Funny how the first cases in New York state were not in the big city. Then once they appeared in the big city they spread like wildfire, which didn't surprise me. It's hard to stay 6 feet away from people at all times in a big city.

People have to eat and get medicines, so they have to shop. There are lots of tiny shops in New York City. I'd try not to be in them at times they are busiest, and wear face covering. Or get goods delivered. It's hard, though.


----------



## Joe B

TalkingHead said:


> *Benedictine nuns release Gregorian chants to help ease coronavirus isolation*
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ian-chants-to-help-ease-coronavirus-isolation
> 
> Let's see the Guardian haters knock this one down.


GREAT article. Thanks for posting it!


----------



## Guest

Joe B said:


> GREAT article. Thanks for posting it!


My pleasure! Thanks for replying.


----------



## Flamme

It seems countries with higher number of TB vaccinated have much LESS cases of Covidcorona...Can a TB vaccine, viciosly attacked by anti vaccination crowd be a solution...


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> I have a friend from North Ireland (figures, right?) who you may know from the futbol pitch, Roy Carroll.


I've heard of him, but I'm not overly familiar. "Heard of him" not in a personal sense, but as a footballer. Looking at his Wiki page, he didn't do too bad...


----------



## pianozach

TalkingHead said:


> Me too, Zach !!
> Check out this very funny video (warning: strong language):


I saw this several weeks ago and shared the "clean" version on Facebook.

It's actually much better with the swearing . . .


----------



## Flamme

pianozach said:


> Science deniers crack me up.


Alternative science believers! Theres an explosion of those recently...I even feel nostalgic to ''old'' conspiracy theories where sun and plantes were made out of ice etc...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Alternative science believers! Theres an explosion of those recently...I even feel nostalgic to ''old'' conspiracy theories where sun and plantes were made out of ice etc...


I feel nostalgic for the time, when internet was just for the educated people from universities. The moronavirus could not spread so easily.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> I've heard of him, but I'm not overly familiar. "Heard of him" not in a personal sense, but as a footballer. Looking at his Wiki page, he didn't do too bad...


he is a really compassionate and shy man, a pleasure to work with


----------



## Luchesi

eljr said:


> There is more rain as the atmosphere heats up.


No, the rain producing patterns separate more widely. So we expect larger areas of drought and more flooding in flood-prone areas.


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> he is a really compassionate and shy man, a pleasure to work with


What's he working at now. Bloke worked for about 4 years under Alex Ferguson, he obviously has a lot of qualities. Have you ever been to Northern Ireland?


----------



## Jacck

Coronavirus May 'Reactivate' in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says?sref=yYYRek8e
some more good news about the virus 
if it is hiding somewhere in the body, waiting for weakening of the immune system to reactivate, possibly leading to chronic persistent infections etc.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> Coronavirus May 'Reactivate' in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says?sref=yYYRek8e
> some more good news about the virus
> if it is hiding somewhere in the body, waiting for weakening of the immune system to reactivate, possibly leading to chronic persistent infections etc.


Until proven otherwise, I would suspect the test itself. We heard quite a bit about bad tests a few weeks ago, but not much lately. If there are even a few percent of false negatives, patients are going to be told they are 'all better'. From what I've heard, the disease can wax and wane with temperatures increasing, then decreasing then coming back and patients feeling better for a couple of days then not so much for a few days.

One of the experts today warned of 'false recovery' and to have at least 3-4 days of feeling close to normal before assuming you are in true recovery.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> What's he working at now. Bloke worked for about 4 years under Alex Ferguson, he obviously has a lot of qualities. Have you ever been to Northern Ireland?


He has been doing training principally but has his hand in others things as well. 
Here is the states he helped me out with a goalkeeper glove care line, did some promo for us and we set him up with GK camps. 
No, I have not been to Northern Ireland.


----------



## eljr

NY has more cases than any COUNTRY in the world. WTF!!!!!!!!!!

(I just heard this)


----------



## KenOC

eljr said:


> NY has more cases than any COUNTRY in the world. WTF!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> (I just heard this)


This is true. Just under 1% of the state's population has contracted the disease, at least so far as is known. The death rate so far is less than a tenth of a percent. Italy, Spain, France, and the UK all lead New York in total deaths.


----------



## tortkis

erki said:


> USA is entering into the stage of seeking someone to blame and Trump tries to make sure he is on the accusing side.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-who.html
> 
> However I do not know that much about WHO doings in the light of corona virus(and the one two years back). Maybe someone could enlighten me.


I think it is reasonable to blame the WHO. I often see accusations that the WHO has been acting for the benefit of China. This video exemplifies how "the WHO has been deeply poisoned by Chinese influence."

Senior WHO official dodges questions about Taiwan's WHO membership; praises China





Taiwan says WHO ignored its coronavirus questions at start of outbreak
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-questions-at-start-of-outbreak-idUSKBN21B160

Taiwan Rejects WHO Claim of Racist Campaign Against Tedros
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-who-claim-of-racist-campaign-against-tedros


----------



## bz3

eljr said:


> NY has more cases than any COUNTRY in the world. WTF!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> (I just heard this)


Babylon didn't end well either. This doesn't surprise me, the surprising stat I heard was that 40% of NYC is foreign-born. I knew it was a large number but that is quite large.


----------



## Luchesi

KenOC said:


> This is true. Just under 1% of the state's population has contracted the disease, at least so far as is known. The death rate so far is less than a tenth of a percent. Italy, Spain, France, and the UK all lead New York in total deaths.


Yes, there's a lot of people even in the county north of NYC where I grew up. Maybe the folks there don't realize how 'packed' it is, if they've never lived anywhere else. We used to say, "There's nothing of importance west of the Hudson!". It was a statement of pride, and you could get any latest tech product etc. you wanted down in the city.


----------



## mmsbls

Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have mapped the structure of the spiked protein of the coronavirus by assigning each amino acid a unique note in a musical scale, converting the entire protein into a preliminary musical score. Apparently, this isn't simply silly nonsense but rather a useful tool to find binding sites for antibodies or drugs.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> This is true. Just under 1% of the state's population has contracted the disease, at least so far as is known. The death rate so far is less than a tenth of a percent. Italy, Spain, France, and the UK all lead New York in total deaths.


Where are you getting that one tenth of one percent death rate from? New York City hospitals have a great reputation, but I doubt the figure is that low.


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> Where are you getting that one tenth of one percent death rate from? New York City hospitals have a great reputation, but I doubt the figure is that low.


That's a tenth of a percent of the total population, sorry if I was unclear. It's more like 4% of diagnosed cases, or 0.04% of the total population. See the worldometer.

Otherwise, on *BBC*: Photos have emerged of workers in hazmat outfits burying coffins in a mass grave in New York City.


----------



## Open Book

What a terrible photo.
I hope the peak is reached soon. It's supposed to happen in one or two weeks, I think? At least then we can watch the number of new cases come down instead of up, up, up all the time.


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> What a terrible photo.
> I hope the peak is reached soon. It's supposed to happen in one or two weeks, I think? At least then we can watch the number of new cases come down instead of up, up, up all the time.


The *IHME model* shows daily deaths in NY peaking today, April 9. Hope that's right.


----------



## KenOC




----------



## erki

mmsbls said:


> Scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have mapped the structure of the spiked protein of the coronavirus by assigning each amino acid a unique note in a musical scale, converting the entire protein into a preliminary musical score.


It is Chinese, period!


----------



## erki

KenOC said:


>


https://www.theonion.com/damning-report-finds-white-house-ignored-skeletal-horse-1842754580

There was blood raining from the ceiling in Oval Office and sound of seven trumpets as well.


----------



## eljr

Luchesi said:


> "There's nothing of importance west of the Hudson!". It was a statement of pride, .


Can you explain a bit as to what this means? What exactly is "west of the Hudson?"

BTW, it's not a statement of pride, it is a statement of ignorance and arrogance.


----------



## Art Rock

*The missing dead.
*

One of the question marks about reported deaths is how many succumbed to the virus without it being registered as such (especially in countries like the Netherlands where testing for the virus has not been widely spread beyond hospital cases).

The Dutch Institute for statistics has released a disturbing graph.









The red dots represent the expected number of deaths per week based on previous years (base line). The middle line is the base line plus the number of deaths officially attributed to the virus. The dark blue line on top is the total number of deaths reported the past few weeks. It's clear that there are lots more people dying than expected based on the normal pattern and the official virus deaths - most likely this shows that the actual number of virus deaths is about twice the official number. Some of these may be indirectly caused by the virus (people scared to go to the hospital, people receiving less attention than usual in the hospital), on the other hand one would also expect less deaths due to traffic incidents etc.


----------



## starthrower

eljr said:


> Can you explain a bit as to what this means? What exactly is "west of the Hudson?"


The remainder of New York State including Rochester and Buffalo which accounts for at least a few million people.


----------



## EdwardBast

Art Rock said:


> *The missing dead.
> *
> 
> *One of the question marks about reported deaths is how many succumbed to the virus without it being registered as such* (especially in countries like the Netherlands where testing for the virus has not been widely spread beyond hospital cases).
> 
> The Dutch Institute for statistics has released a disturbing graph.
> 
> View attachment 133479
> 
> 
> The red dots represent the expected number of deaths per week based on previous years (base line). The middle line is the base line plus the number of deaths officially attributed to the virus. The dark blue line on top is the total number of deaths reported the past few weeks. It's clear that there are lots more people dying than expected based on the normal pattern and the official virus deaths - most likely this shows that the actual number of virus deaths is about twice the official number. Some of these may be indirectly caused by the virus (people scared to go to the hospital, people receiving less attention than usual in the hospital), on the other hand one would also expect less deaths due to traffic incidents etc.


This is important in the US as well. Recently it was reported that emergency medical personnel had responded to 10 times the usual number of deaths at home in New York City last week. This means that the death tolls in NYC, reported at ~800 per day, are actually more like 1,000 per day.


----------



## starthrower

Why any news network is airing one second of 45's endless fabrications is unconscionable. 
https://www.newyorker.com/news/lett...tes-ended-up-with-nurses-wearing-garbage-bags


----------



## pianozach

starthrower said:


> Why any news network is airing one second of 45's endless fabrications is unconscionable.
> https://www.newyorker.com/news/lett...tes-ended-up-with-nurses-wearing-garbage-bags


Yeah.

They have become his proxy campaign rallies/sunday-go-to-meetin' ratings grab.

He's actually bragged about his Coronavirus press conference ratings on Twitter.

March 29: _*"Because the "Ratings" of my News Conferences etc. are so high, "Bachelor finale, Monday Night Football type numbers" according to the @nytimes, the Lamestream Media is going CRAZY. "Trump is reaching too many people, we must stop him." said one lunatic. See you at 5:00 P.M.!"*_

Also March 29: _*""President Trump is a ratings hit. Since reviving the daily White House briefing Mr. Trump and his coronavirus updates have attracted an average audience of 8.5 million on cable news, roughly the viewership of the season finale of 'The Bachelor.' Numbers are continuing to rise..."*_

*This* *is* what passes, according to President Trump, as *coronavirus information*.

The coronavirus pandemic has caused an economic crisis, policy chaos at home and abroad, and widespread physical and mental suffering around the globe - it would make sense that millions are tuning in to hear the nation's top officials provide clear, accurate information on the latest.

But he fills this "*coronavirus press conferences*" with misinformation, verbal attacks on reporters, verbal attacks on state governors, celebrities, bible thumping, pats on the back, praise from selected speakers, political grandstanding, and rehearsal time for his comedic material. He comments on celebrity news, and gets his facts wrong.

At one of his 'pressers' he implied that medical professionals might be hoarding or stealing masks.

Hardly a day goes by when I try to understand how he can daily lower the bar for incendiary rhetoric in what OUGHT to be an *informational briefing on a pandemic*.

Now I'm convinced that *there is no bottom*. We cannot fathom how low he will go, nor how bad it can get.


----------



## DaveM

^^^ We can’t go any further for fear of having the thread shut down, but you have cleverly put it in a nutshell.


----------



## KenOC

Frankly, I find the political diatribes on this forum a bit lacking in imagination. Perhaps it would be good to search history for better ones, and to address the object of our derision directly. Here’s one that Shostakovich thought good enough to use in a major work. (And please note the use of a musical connection to prevent going totally OT.)
----------------------------------
Dearest Donald,

More criminal than Barabbas,
Horned like the evil angels --
What Beelzebub are you down there,
Fed on garbage and dirt?
We shall not come to your Sabbaths,
Stinking fish of Salonika,
Long chain of fearful nights,
Of eyes gouged out with pikes.
Your mother farted in a funk
And you were born of her colic.

Executioner of Podolia, lover
Of wounds and ulcers and scabs
Snout of a pig, **** of a mare.
Hold on to all your riches
To pay for your medications!


----------



## starthrower

If 45 sinks any lower, his oleaginous house ferret will have to dig a hole to kiss his ***.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Frankly, I find the political diatribes on this forum a bit lacking in imagination. Perhaps it would be good to search history for better ones, and to address the object of our derision directly. Here's one that Shostakovich thought good enough to use in a major work. (And please note the use of a musical connection to prevent going totally OT.)
> ----------------------------------
> Dearest Donald,
> 
> More criminal than Barabbas,
> Horned like the evil angels --
> What Beelzebub are you down there,
> Fed on garbage and dirt?
> We shall not come to your Sabbaths,
> Stinking fish of Salonika,
> Long chain of fearful nights,
> Of eyes gouged out with pikes.
> Your mother farted in a funk
> And you were born of her colic.
> 
> Executioner of Podolia, lover
> Of wounds and ulcers and scabs
> Snout of a pig, **** of a mare.
> Hold on to all your riches
> To pay for your medications!


And your answer for that is an unfortunate man with incipient dementia??!! You just couldn't make this stuff up.

People have nothing in the locker when they resort to profanity.

Clue: the Democrats were DONE when that dreadful Pelosi woman tore up the "State of the Union" speech in front of the whole world. A 'tanty' of international proportions. The people have figured that out already. If some here think it's funny that The Donald has his hand on the nuclear trigger they'd better start factoring in the alternative with senile dementia.


----------



## KenOC

Christabel said:


> And your answer for that is an unfortunate man with incipient dementia??!! You just couldn't make this stuff up.


Alas, I sincerely regret that I did not make the satirical intent of my post clearer.


----------



## Jacck

Coronavirus infection may cause lasting damage throughout the body, doctors fear
https://www.latimes.com/science/sto...tion-can-do-lasting-damage-to-the-heart-liver


----------



## geralmar

Unintended consequence of the coronavirus pandemic: Los Angeles without smog.


----------



## tdc

This kind of crisis is just perfect for authoritarian power grabs. The Rockefeller foundation ran a simulation of such a scenario some 20 years or so back and described how it can be used to increase power and control over a nation. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation ran another simulation of such a scenario just 6 weeks before this crisis emerged. Fauci said in a press conference a while back that the current administration would face a surprise emergency related to a contagion. Are these people just psychic or what? Highly suspicious stuff. 

Andrew Cuomo just suspended a bunch of laws in New York as a result of this crisis, some of them highly questionable for example it is now no longer necessary to perform background criminal checks on people applying for daycare work. He also suspended certain laws relating to bribery and certain officials receiving pay outs. Hmmm...So what does any of that have to do with the spread of a virus? 

Also think about how many deaths have already certainly occurred as a result of the loss of work, isolation and economic fall out, these will certainly increase the longer things stay on quarantine. Why aren't those deaths considered important?

People like Bill Gates have only thinly veiled their desire for depopulation, (if it is veiled at all). Look at all the poisonous garbage that is put in the most affordable food that the lower classes must largely rely on. Do you think these people who are in positions of power and influence are now very concerned about the very old? They just want so much to protect each and every life? Are you kidding me? 

However serious this virus might be (if it is even a virus, some have pointed out covid-19 fails Koch's postulates used to define a virus). The majority of individuals response to this situation is incredibly naïve and far more dangerous than whatever this mysterious covid-19 is.

Vaccines are not effective against cold viruses by the way because these viruses mutate so often. How many people have died from vaccines? How many billions of dollars have been paid out over vaccine injuries? Why aren't those deaths and injuries considered important? Why don't they get sensationalized in the media, like every little thing related to covid-19? And now you are going to tell me a known eugenicist's vaccine is the answer? A mandatory vaccine as a solution to this manufactured crisis is an idiotic idea, and not something I will ever consent to.


----------



## Sad Al

Jacck said:


> Coronavirus infection may cause lasting damage throughout the body, doctors fear
> https://www.latimes.com/science/sto...tion-can-do-lasting-damage-to-the-heart-liver


"COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disorder," said Dr. Harlan Krumholtz, a cardiologist at Yale University. "It can affect the heart, the liver, the kidneys, *the brain*, the endocrine system and the blood system."

And BoJo has a nuclear suitcase. What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## Flamme

Yeah time is ripe 4 both left, right and liberal extreme ideologies...


----------



## eljr

Christabel said:


> Clue: the Democrats were DONE when that dreadful Pelosi woman tore up the "State of the Union" speech in front of the whole world. A 'tanty' of international proportions. The people have figured that out already. If some here think it's funny that The Donald has his hand on the nuclear trigger they'd better start factoring in the alternative with senile dementia.


Your "clue" is fine but not what you think it gives hint to.

Peace


----------



## Flamme

Im not even a trumpista, but something has profoundly changed with his ascent 2 the throne of US of A...


----------



## eljr

tdc said:


> This kind of crisis is just perfect for authoritarian power grabs. The Rockefeller foundation ran a simulation of such a scenario some 20 years or so back and described how it can be used to increase power and control over a nation. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation ran another simulation of such a scenario just 6 weeks before this crisis emerged. Fauci said in a press conference a while back that the current administration would face a surprise emergency related to a contagion. Are these people just psychic or what? Highly suspicious stuff.
> 
> Andrew Cuomo just suspended a bunch of laws in New York as a result of this crisis, some of them highly questionable for example it is now no longer necessary to perform background criminal checks on people applying for daycare work. He also suspended certain laws relating to bribery and certain officials receiving pay outs. Hmmm...So what does any of that have to do with the spread of a virus?
> 
> Also think about how many deaths have already certainly occurred as a result of the loss of work, isolation and economic fall out, these will certainly increase the longer things stay on quarantine. Why aren't those deaths considered important?
> 
> People like Bill Gates have only thinly veiled their desire for depopulation, (if it is veiled at all). Look at all the poisonous garbage that is put in the most affordable food that the lower classes must largely rely on. Do you think these people who are in positions of power and influence are now very concerned about the very old? They just want so much to protect each and every life? Are you kidding me?
> 
> However serious this virus might be (if it is even a virus, some have pointed out covid-19 fails Koch's postulates used to define a virus). The majority of individuals response to this situation is incredibly naïve and far more dangerous than whatever this mysterious covid-19 is.
> 
> Vaccines are not effective against cold viruses by the way because these viruses mutate so often. How many people have died from vaccines? How many billions of dollars have been paid out over vaccine injuries? Why aren't those deaths and injuries considered important? Why don't they get sensationalized in the media, like every little thing related to covid-19? And now you are going to tell me a known eugenicist's vaccine is the answer? A mandatory vaccine as a solution to this manufactured crisis is an idiotic idea, and not something I will ever consent to.


you own several guns i imagine...

that is my take away from this post


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> The remainder of New York State including Rochester and Buffalo which accounts for at least a few million people.


Does he mean north jersey too? West Point?

Meantime God Awful Long Island is to the east of the river.


----------



## Flamme

eljr said:


> you own several guns i imagine...
> 
> that is my take away from this post


 I live in a war thorn country but I dont get all the excitement with guns and ammo present in US...I agree man should know a thing or two about use of guns, just in case but if he lives in a peaceful country like America still is, I dont get the appeal...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Im not even a trumpista, but something has profoundly changed with his ascent 2 the throne of US of A...


they got tired of being an empire and decided they Trump is going to be their Nero. The radicalized reactionary Republican party sees it as their last chance to seize power. For them it is now or face oblivion, so they need to cheat at elections - gerrymandering, voter supression etc 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/opinion/wisconsin-primary-democracy.html
Hopefully they can defeat the toxic elements of their society and rescue themselves as a nation from the clutches of authoritarianism.


----------



## Flamme




----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> Im not even a trumpista, but something has profoundly changed with his ascent 2 the throne of US of A...


American politics is a freak show. It's entertaining and weird. They embrace fads more easily, and shout a lot. Watch it in small doses and you'll actually enjoy it. Bring popcorn, and beer. You'll cheer and laugh a lot. It's a bear pit. It's an illegal dog fight. It's the bearded lady who identifies as an orchestral conductor, to heck with training. We'll all end up there someday...


----------



## premont

Yes, they may be very unintentionally entertaining. In my country we say that the need for political satire is declining, because today politicians already are parodies themselves.


----------



## Kieran

premont said:


> Yes, they may be very unintended entertaining. In my country we say that the need for political satire is declining, because today politicians are parodies of themselves.


Absolutely true...


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> Yes, they may be very unintentionally entertaining. In my country we say that the need for political satire is declining, because today politicians already are parodies themselves.


I don't find it entertaining. The death of democracy in the US and the willingness of the Republican party to make deals with the likes of Putin should scare Europe.


----------



## starthrower

National politics in America has turned in to the Saturday Night Live TV show. Thousands are dying in his home city and the president is tweeting about the high ratings for his vacuous press briefings. He's petrified about losing power in the upcoming election. I really wish everyone in his administration would resign in protest. But of course it won't happen because they are part of the problem.


----------



## Kieran

starthrower said:


> National politics in America has turned in to the Saturday Night Live TV show. Thousands are dying in his home city and the president is tweeting about the high ratings for his vacuous press briefings. He's petrified about losing power in the upcoming election. I really wish everyone in his administration would resign in protest. But of course it won't happen because they are part of the problem.


It's entertaining and weird not only because of Mr Trump. This inability to see past tribalism is really what's killing it. The inability to self-correct, but to only embrace a media safe PC "Orange Man Bad" ideology, when your own side are equally open to criticism and suspicion. Americans make sport of serious things, and this is the dangerous aspect of it. But we're all heading there. We see dense and ignorant tribalism now as a badge of loudly proclaimed "honour" in politics everywhere now...


----------



## Ariasexta

I feel almost nothing about the corona thing, I have been sick of economic exploitations by the commies and oligarchs, I always consider communism and oligarchy as the biggest plague ever. The corona thing is just a piece of cake. Yes I might get it and die too but that is all, why makes a fuss about myself, if somehow nature can cure herself of these cancerous parasites. :lol:

I wrote a poem about my general feeling about recent days, a bit excited, a bit more determinded, I can not pretend to care about people I do not know, thats it. Oscar Wilde once said, life is too important to take it seriously.


----------



## Joe B

Ariasexta said:


> *I feel almost nothing about the corona thing*, I have been sick of economic exploitations by the commies and oligarchs, I always consider communism and oligarchy as the biggest plague ever. *The corona thing is just a piece of cake.* Yes I might get it and die too but that is all, why makes a fuss about myself, if somehow nature can cure herself of these cancerous parasites. :lol:
> 
> I wrote a poem about my general feeling about recent days, a bit excited, a bit more determinded, *I can not pretend to care about people I do not know*, thats it. Oscar Wilde once said, life is too important to take it seriously.


WOW! You have NO empathy at all? Amazing!


----------



## Flamme

They call it the ''boomer remover'' because it allegedly targets the elder population, but who will have a last laugh if the next strain choses to attack younger ppl, zoomers, xrs and such...


----------



## starthrower

Kieran said:


> It's entertaining and weird not only because of Mr Trump. This inability to see past tribalism is really what's killing it. The inability to self-correct, but to only embrace a media safe PC "Orange Man Bad" ideology, when your own side are equally open to criticism and suspicion.


I agree completely. And when I see smart, educated left leaning citizens who refuse to acknowledge the shortcomings of the democratic party and embrace dumb slogans like "vote blue no matter who" it pisses me off. I'm a fan of writer and journalist Thomas Frank, a democrat who is criticizing his party for it's failures. There are some interesting talks on YouTube. But you will not see him on any network news shows in America.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

starthrower said:


> National politics in America has turned in to the Saturday Night Live TV show. Thousands are dying in his home city and the president is tweeting about the high ratings for his vacuous press briefings. He's petrified about losing power in the upcoming election. I really wish everyone in his administration would resign in protest. But of course it won't happen because they are part of the problem.


If everybody in the administration did that it would throw the executive branch into chaos. Do you really want that? How many lives would be lost if that happens?


----------



## Kieran

Joe B said:


> WOW! You have NO empathy at all? Amazing!


I didn't get that from what was said, at all. In fact, if you recognise - as surely we must - the bigger plagues mentioned, then I thought it was very empathetic...


----------



## Kieran

starthrower said:


> I agree completely. And when I see smart, educated left leaning citizens who refuse to acknowledge the shortcomings of the democratic party and embrace dumb slogans like "vote blue no matter who" it pisses me off. I'm a fan of writer and journalist Thomas Frank, a democrat who is criticizing his party for it's failures. There are some interesting talks on YouTube. But you will not see him on any network news shows in America.


I've heard of him, and I agree, he's more interested in real progress and rooting out bad ideas, he's also caring about the effect of politics on people. I'll watch the video over the next few days - thanks!


----------



## starthrower

Johnnie Burgess said:


> If everybody in the administration did that it would throw the executive branch into chaos. Do you really want that? How many lives would be lost if that happens?


It's already in chaos. A group of yes men daily stroking the gigantic ego of a narcissist with no government or management skills. What could go wrong?


----------



## DaveM

tdc said:


> People like Bill Gates have only thinly veiled their desire for depopulation, (if it is veiled at all). Look at all the poisonous garbage that is put in the most affordable food that the lower classes must largely rely on. Do you think these people who are in positions of power and influence are now very concerned about the very old? They just want so much to protect each and every life? Are you kidding me?


Are you serious? Bill Gates has a desire for depopulation? Is that why he has committed 5 billion dollars to fight HIV in Africa?



> Vaccines are not effective against cold viruses by the way because these viruses mutate so often. How many people have died from vaccines? How many billions of dollars have been paid out over vaccine injuries? Why aren't those deaths and injuries considered important? Why don't they get sensationalized in the media, like every little thing related to covid-19? *And now you are going to tell me a known eugenicist's vaccine is the answer? A mandatory vaccine as a solution to this manufactured crisis is an idiotic idea, and not something I will ever consent to.*


You and your believers can go ahead and never consent to a vaccine against Covid-19: Nature will exact it's own form of depopulation.


----------



## Ariasexta

Joe B said:


> WOW! You have NO empathy at all? Amazing!


I just want to be honest, at least on the internet, I can not feel true empathy for so many people. Do you really believe one can be able to feel empathy for strangers? The show of compassion at the time of disaster is just a convenient self-pity. Myself can be infected anytime, I have no much pity for myself too. Pity is not love, is ignoble alternative to fear, pity is neither mercy, we common folks are lowlifes not capable of mercy. What we can do best is to be honest to ourselfs, Buddhas says the biggest honesty is be true to oneself. This is just some death, not torture, we have larger problems than coronavirus, trust me on this.


----------



## Flamme

Not giving a ph*** is a trend, I heard it from other ppl as well...I do agree we have to love ourselves 1st...Because if we dont love urselves we can never truly love other ppl.


----------



## pianozach

starthrower said:


> National politics in America has turned in to the Saturday Night Live TV show. Thousands are dying in his home city and the president is tweeting about the high ratings for his vacuous press briefings. He's petrified about losing power in the upcoming election. I really wish everyone in his administration would resign in protest. But of course it won't happen because they are part of the problem.





Johnnie Burgess said:


> If everybody in the administration did that it would throw the executive branch into chaos. Do you really want that? How many lives would be lost if that happens?


The White House administration is ALREADY in "chaos".

If everybody quit there honestly wouldn't be that big of a change from what we have now.

This administration has the highest turnover rate of any presidency. The top echelon of the Trump administration has become a high-speed revolving door - with turnover in 78 percent of the positions. And 31 percent of those White House "A-Team" jobs have turned over more than once.

Of the top 65 positions in the Executive Office of the President, which includes jobs like national security adviser, chief of staff, communications director, press secretary and director of national intelligence, 51 of the 65 positions have turned over since Trump took office (16 of them twice or more).

Over the past year, Trump has welcomed a new attorney general and defense secretary, a third legislative affairs director and a fourth national security adviser and has tapped a fifth person to head up the Department of Homeland Security. I've lost track of how many Chiefs of Staff, Communications Directors and Press Secretaries have come and gone.

I don't even know how to track all the unfilled positions that are being held by "acting" secretaries.

Actually, it's worse than that, as I'm working with figures from last September.

As for the *CORONAVIRUS* team, he put his son-in-law on it, and I think yesterday I heard that daughter Ivanka was also tapped for it. Neither have any medical or scientific backgrounds, and I honestly thought I might be looking at a 'satire' headline yesterday.

So . . . yesterday. Let's talk *CORONAVIRUS* response: Yesterday the "president" debuted his second coronavirus task force; one that reportedly will include his daughter. It will be called the Opening the Country Task Force.

The president also pointed out yesterday that the virus is outsmarting him:

*PRESIDENT TRUMP*, April 10, 2020: *"No, one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can't keep up with it, they're constantly trying to come up with - a new. People go to a hospital and they catch - they go for a heart operation, that's no problem, and they end up dying from problems. You know the problems I'm talking about."*

And yet, this the goal of this 2nd "task force", if the name is any indication, is "Opening the Country". He may as well have named it *Profiteers Unlimited*.



So even with the limited testing capabilities here in the *USA*, we've now officially reached HALF A MILLION cases (we also have the most reported deaths of any nation).

*New York* state now has more cases than any other country in the world (the US excepted, of course). New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has gathered a task force to study information on whether reopening the state economy would trigger a "*second wave*" of infections.

Gov. Cuomo's daily press conferences are how these things should be run, rather than the sh!tshow we get daily from the White House. They're politics-free. They're not campaign rallies, there's no parade of fake experts praising him, there's no insults, no sales pitches, and no bible thumping. Just facts, delivered in a no-nonsense way:

*"The number of hospitalizations appears to have hit an apex and the apex appears to be a plateau. Which is what many of the models predicted, that it wasn't going to be a straight up and straight down. It was straight up, you hit the top number, plateau for a period of time, and that looks like what we are doing. The hospitalization rate is down, and that's important. We have more people getting infected still. We have more people going into the hospitals, but we have a lower number."* - Cuomo, today.


----------



## erki

Joe B said:


> WOW! You have NO empathy at all? Amazing!


Don't say that, it is not so. I feel lots of empathy in that text


----------



## Bulldog

Yesterday I heard the worst news yet. When Trump was asked how he would decide when to open the country, he pointed to his brain - we are in for big trouble now.


----------



## Open Book

tdc said:


> This kind of crisis is just perfect for authoritarian power grabs. The Rockefeller foundation ran a simulation of such a scenario some 20 years or so back and described how it can be used to increase power and control over a nation. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation ran another simulation of such a scenario just 6 weeks before this crisis emerged. Fauci said in a press conference a while back that the current administration would face a surprise emergency related to a contagion. Are these people just psychic or what? Highly suspicious stuff.
> 
> Andrew Cuomo just suspended a bunch of laws in New York as a result of this crisis, some of them highly questionable for example it is now no longer necessary to perform background criminal checks on people applying for daycare work. He also suspended certain laws relating to bribery and certain officials receiving pay outs. Hmmm...So what does any of that have to do with the spread of a virus?
> 
> Also think about how many deaths have already certainly occurred as a result of the loss of work, isolation and economic fall out, these will certainly increase the longer things stay on quarantine. Why aren't those deaths considered important?
> 
> People like Bill Gates have only thinly veiled their desire for depopulation, (if it is veiled at all). Look at all the poisonous garbage that is put in the most affordable food that the lower classes must largely rely on. Do you think these people who are in positions of power and influence are now very concerned about the very old? They just want so much to protect each and every life? Are you kidding me?
> 
> However serious this virus might be (if it is even a virus, some have pointed out covid-19 fails Koch's postulates used to define a virus). The majority of individuals response to this situation is incredibly naïve and far more dangerous than whatever this mysterious covid-19 is.
> 
> Vaccines are not effective against cold viruses by the way because these viruses mutate so often. How many people have died from vaccines? How many billions of dollars have been paid out over vaccine injuries? Why aren't those deaths and injuries considered important? Why don't they get sensationalized in the media, like every little thing related to covid-19? And now you are going to tell me a known eugenicist's vaccine is the answer? A mandatory vaccine as a solution to this manufactured crisis is an idiotic idea, and not something I will ever consent to.


What about the realities of this virus?

Look at the New York Times figures. The number of deaths each day divided by the number of new cases each day has been coming out to about 3.5% in the U.S. That means 1 in 29 people who test positive are dying from this virus! And it may be possible to get the virus again and face 1 in 29 odds of death a second or third time.

Do you want to do nothing and risk that you or one of your loved ones or friends won't be one of those people who succumb? Is that a smart bet?

Studies have been showing that even if you don't die immediately you can have lasting damage from the virus that can lead to an earlier death.

Do you believe all the news about it is manufactured? Every doctor and nurse in the world is part of a massive lie?
If you doubt this news, why are you so sure vaccines are ineffective? Why not doubt everything you hear? You're cherry-picking what you want to believe.


----------



## pianozach

Ariasexta said:


> I just want to be honest. . . I can not feel true empathy for so many people. Do you really believe one can be able to feel empathy for strangers? . . .


I can feel empathy for strangers. Happens all the time, whether it's an online video of cops provoking a black teen, or the lady on the corner of the parking lot with a sign that says "Bless You".

I note my sadness, I note the pathos, I note the hopelessness and my own inability to change the situation, then I push it down into a corner of my soul so I can continue with my day.

While I may or may not be an actual empath, I am certainly empathetic.

Being empathetic is simply when your heart goes out to someone else.

Surely you experience this?

Being an empath means you can actually feel another person's happiness or sadness in your own body. I sometimes do.


----------



## Bulldog

Ariasexta said:


> I just want to be honest, at least on the internet, I can not feel true empathy for so many people. Do you really believe one can be able to feel empathy for strangers?


Of course. I can even feel empathy for you.


----------



## Ariasexta

I feel so much blessed to have listened to so many good music, this is what I can say, I have lived a luxurious life for being so much lucky. Sometimes I feel ashamed to listen to such great music while compose none. So much happiness already, we are so lucky already. If God were to let me live for some more time, I will just share and work for living people. Why fear the death?:angel: Showing mercy for the dead is the job of noble kings and holy people, we should take care of ourself and living people first. There is nothing to fear, to pity about. :tiphat:

Since we are born common, should do the common, and be proud to be common. This is my philosophy.


----------



## Flamme

> Sometimes I feel ashamed to listen to such great music while compose none.


Me 2...I feel envy and sadness that I cannot express the rich inner world that I possess inside. My mum was the same, a great painting talent, but life took her in totally different way...I still have time, who knows 1 day, I will do some work related 2 arts, antiquities etc...These are strange times indeed and I think everything is possible.


----------



## Ariasexta

pianozach said:


> I can feel empathy for strangers. Happens all the time, whether it's an online video of cops provoking a black teen, or the lady on the corner of the parking lot with a sign that says "Bless You".
> 
> I note my sadness, I note the pathos, I note the hopelessness and my own inability to change the situation, then I push it down into a corner of my soul so I can continue with my day.
> 
> While I may or may not be an actual empath, I am certainly empathetic.
> 
> Being empathetic is simply when your heart goes out to someone else.
> 
> Surely you experience this?
> 
> Being an empath means you can actually feel another person's happiness or sadness in your own body. I sometimes do.


While I might appreciate your offer, but I must give you some advice in return.

Of course, you must feel empathy for your closest people, but too much empathy will wear yourself out and you will get nothing in return. Remember, it is impossible to change your birth, sometimes, racial complex would play a part in such act toward some disadvantaged people, but you will get nothing in return, God will also not pity foolish people even you act altruistic in faith. To take of yourself is already the hardest thing to do. Do not wear yourself out, you are not king, not pope, not an peerage. People like You need to be careful, just be true to yourself will help more people.


----------



## Sad Al

Evolution prefers people who feel some empathy for their family, and zero empathy for all other humans, and negative empathy for other species. Psychopaths enjoy an unfair Darwinistic advantage.


----------



## Ariasexta

Flamme said:


> Me 2...I feel envy and sadness that I cannot express the rich inner world that I possess inside. My mum was the same, a great painting talent, but life took her in totally different way...I still have time, who knows 1 day, I will do some work related 2 arts, antiquities etc...These are strange times indeed and I think everything is possible.
> 
> It is very good of your to not to be effusive, it is a good thing. Surely still we are too lucky to live in this age of information. Feeling unable to express is a sign of kindness. I already take my amateur music love status as profession, a kind of artistic career, to be a good listener, reader maybe a good addition to the world so much in need of tastes. Once in a while, we dreamed about some talents, however, it is truly a great thing to take care of our livelihood and family. Now, corona event shows us, how nature is not a tamed sheep, but she is powerful and smarter than us, life is hard.


----------



## Ariasexta

Bulldog said:


> Of course. I can even feel empathy for you.


Well, I might appreciate, though this is just some feeling. Life will teach people cruel reality we all will have to face. In the end, we all have to rely on our own faith and hands.


----------



## Sad Al

Life will indeed teach people cruel reality we all will have to face. Let's consider music. Even the best music is peanuts compared to _'all my trials' that shall soon be over _(I have that on a nice Joan Baez LP).


----------



## Jacck

a study from Germany estimates the CFR to 0.37%
https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf


----------



## Jacck

Jacck said:


> a study from Germany estimates the CFR to 0.37%
> https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf


this means that 1 in 300 infected people dies (counting also the hidden asymptomatic infections), so using this data for the US to obtain herd immunity of 70% population - 854700 people would die.

to put it into perspective
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm


----------



## pianozach

Ariasexta said:


> While I might appreciate your offer, but I must give you some advice in return.
> 
> Of course, you must feel empathy for your closest people, but too much empathy will wear yourself out and you will get nothing in return. Remember, it is impossible to change your birth, sometimes, racial complex would play a part in such act toward some disadvantaged people, but you will get nothing in return, God will also not pity foolish people even you act altruistic in faith. To take of yourself is already the hardest thing to do. Do not wear yourself out, you are not king, not pope, not an peerage. People like You need to be careful, just be true to yourself will help more people.


Thanks.

For many true empaths, this skill/gift/burden is not something they can turn off and on at will. Just like there may be a "Rain Man" out there that cannot help but count the number of pencils falling on the floor, being an Empath is not a choice, but a way of life.

I'm "lucky" in that regard because I CAN make it go away. I once had a girlfriend who could see auras. It annoyed her, and she'd go to a hypnotist who'd make it go away for awhile, and every couple of years, when her "gift" started coming back to the point where it was again an annoyance, she do the hypnotherapy again.

So . . . as far as "getting nothing in return", there's plenty in life that I experience where I get nothing in return: I see telephone poles as I'm driving, I hear noisy neighbors, I smell cigarette smoke, I feel the cold floor in the morning. I also feel others' pain. To feel is to be human.

I'm fine with your entire comment except for the following:



> Remember, it is impossible to change your birth, sometimes, racial complex would play a part in such act toward some disadvantaged people, but you will get nothing in return, *God will also not pity foolish people even you act altruistic in faith.*


This God you speak of pisses me off more every single day. This is today's **** off moment. God is supposed to be All-Loving, but you speak of Him as though He's picking and choosing who gets His Pity.

So . . . God doesn't like stupid people? I mean, stupid people do foolish things. And smart people do stupid things. NO PITY regardless of whether we care for others?

You don't need to answer . . . it's mostly a rhetorical question. I already have issues with our concept of God . . . from his genocidal Great Flood to circumcision, from his vague guidebook to his 'hands-off' approach for the last 2000 years.

Man, this is one messed-up God.


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> a study from Germany estimates the CFR to 0.37%
> https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf


That sounds about right.

This morning on the cable news they were pegging it at 3.5% in the Us.


----------



## Open Book

How does 0.37% equate to 3.5%? These must be two different things.
3.5% is a terrible number, but that's what you get when you divide deaths by number of cases, either cumulative or daily.
3.5% is one in 29 people ending up dead.


----------



## Jacck

Lions, tigers and house cats: You won't catch coronavirus from felines, experts say
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/tiger-cat-coronavirus-wellness/index.html
good, there were some recommendations that people should not let the cats go out at night. So that recommendation is no more valid I guess


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> a study from Germany estimates the CFR to 0.37%
> https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf


If I'm reading this right, they've done random testing in a limited area in Germany and found that 15% of the population has been infected?

So the low death rate of 0.37% they get is because now with random testing they're counting people with mild or no symptoms?

Because if you just look at official statistics, people who have been tested for a reason rather than at random, it more like a 3.5% death rate of those.

Everywhere you look more or less. Every country and U.S. state.

I'd love to believe there are all these infected people with no symptoms, but I'm not sure I can buy it. I'd like to hear more. More studies.


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> I don't find it entertaining. The death of democracy in the US and the willingness of the Republican party to make deals with the likes of Putin should scare Europe.


I would call them tragicomic. And humor is necessary to cope with tragic circumstances.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> If I'm reading this right, they've done random testing in a limited area in Germany and found that 15% of the population has been infected?
> 
> So the low death rate of 0.37% they get is because now with random testing they're counting people with mild or no symptoms?
> 
> Cause if you just look at official statistics, people who have been tested for a reason rather than at random, it more like a 3.5% death rate of those.
> 
> Everywhere you look more or less. Every country and U.S. state.
> 
> I'd love to believe there are all these infected people with no symptoms, but I'm not sure I can buy it. I'd like to hear more. More studies.


there are 2 kinds of tests
1) the PCR test that directly detects the virus in the body and is positive only it the person is currently infected
2) the serological tests that test the presence of antibodies against the virus. It is positive in all people who had the virus (even the cured ones)

the serological tests have shown that 15% of people in the German area had the virus (including the asymptomatic) and they know the number of deaths in the area, so they computed the CFR. So yes, in the US, you have likely many more infected than the official numbers, possibly 10 times as many, ie 5 million


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> a study from Germany estimates the CFR to 0.37%
> https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf


This doesn't change the fact, that the morbidity and mortality is much higher in the vulnerable population, which are the elderly and those with comorbidity.


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> This doesn't change the fact, that the morbidity and mortality is much higher in the vulnerable population, which are the elderly and those with comorbidity.


of course, but it allows us to form some idea about how the virus behaves, how it spreads and what to expect. We can estimate much better the true number of infected people and make better models etc.


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> I would call them tragicomic. And humor is necessary to cope with tragic circumstances.


we had so much humor and political satire during the communism, so many forbidden jokes. You could be punished for publicly joking about the president, but yet there were many jokes about all the communist bosses and soviet gerontocrats. Nowadays, the humor is mostly gone. People are mostly just apathetic


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> there are 2 kinds of tests
> 1) the PCR test that directly detects the virus in the body and is positive only it the person is currently infected
> 2) the serological tests that test the presence of antibodies against the virus. It is positive in all people who had the virus (even the cured ones)
> 
> the serological tests have shown that 15% of people in the German area had the virus (including the asymptomatic) and they know the number of deaths in the area, so they computed the CFR. So yes, in the US, you have likely many more infected than the official numbers, possibly 10 times as many, ie 5 million


It's not clear if they followed through on every person who tested positive and was asymptomatic to determine if they ever developed symptoms. I have been reading that it may be a bit of a myth that a significant number of people are totally asymptomatic, that almost everyone who starts out asymptomatic will get symptoms eventually.

Also, the testers seem confident that people who have had the virus can't get it again or at least not for a significant amount of time; they celebrate the beginnings of herd immunity. I thought we weren't sure if having the virus conferred any immunity.

I grasp at good news like anyone would, but we should be sure it's really true before celebrating.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> It's not clear if they followed through on every person who tested positive and was asymptomatic to determine if they ever developed symptoms. I have been reading that it may be a bit of a myth that a significant number of people are totally asymptomatic, that almost everyone who starts out asymptomatic will get symptoms eventually.
> 
> Also, the testers seem confident that people who have had the virus can't get it again or at least not for a significant amount of time; they celebrate the beginnings of herd immunity. I thought we weren't sure if having the virus conferred any immunity.
> 
> I grasp at good news like anyone would, but we should be sure it's really true before celebrating.


I am not celebrating, merely stating scientific knowledge about the virus. I have estimated the CFR to be ca 0.3% before (for example based on the Diamond Princess data or the deaths among doctors in Italy). It will still kill a lot of people and might leave many others with lasting health issues (scared lungs with lowered vital capacity, heart damage etc). The virus is going to be a major problem for some time, even if we stop it, it might return. And it is true that we do not yet know about the long term immunity. For SARS, the humoral immunity lasted only months (though there are other types of immunity than just antibodies). I expect that we will experience lockdowns with openings and lockdowns again, either until we have herd immunity or vaccine.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> ... It will still kill a lot of people and might leave many others with lasting health issues (*scared lungs*...


I'd be scared too! (Sorry, I know you meant 'scarred', but it gave me a good laugh anyway. )


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> we had so much humor and political satire during the communism, so many forbidden jokes.


Yes, great puns/jokes were made between the lines and with double meaning. And the humour seemed to have a power or meaning at least. Now it feels institutionalised like everything else we consume.


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> we had so much humor and political satire during the communism, so many forbidden jokes. You could be punished for publicly joking about the president, but yet there were many jokes about all the communist bosses and soviet gerontocrats. Nowadays, the humor is mostly gone. People are mostly just apathetic


Here in the USA we are now approaching the 'no joking about the President' age.


----------



## Barbebleu

A more alarming development would be that in South Korea they tested people who had ostensibly “recovered” from Covid-19 and 91 tested positive again. Scientists may have to rethink about immunity after having had the virus. If this proves to be correct then, alarmingly, lockdown may end only when they have developed a vaccine.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> Here in the USA we are now approaching the 'no joking about the President' age.


We're going to end up with an elderly president again. With all the candidates we started out with I'm not sure how that happened.


----------



## bz3

Open Book said:


> We're going to end up with an elderly president again. With all the candidates we started out with I'm not sure how that happened.


Given the options the Democrat voters chose the empty vessel.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> I am not celebrating, merely stating scientific knowledge about the virus. I have estimated the CFR to be ca 0.3% before (for example based on the Diamond Princess data or the deaths among doctors in Italy). It will still kill a lot of people and might leave many others with lasting health issues (scared lungs with lowered vital capacity, heart damage etc). The virus is going to be a major problem for some time, even if we stop it, it might return. And it is true that we do not yet know about the long term immunity. For SARS, the humoral immunity lasted only months (though there are other types of immunity than just antibodies). I expect that we will experience lockdowns with openings and lockdowns again, either until we have herd immunity or vaccine.


With a CFR of 0.3%, 1 in 333, maybe I'll risk leaving the house for things that are avoidable.

If it's really 3.5%, 1 in 29, I'm not going anywhere I don't absolutely have to.

Funny about the numbers and what risk a person will accept. What's your number?

It varies every year, but the flu has a CFR of close to 1 in 1000. I guess that's acceptable to us because we're not trying to stamp out the flu by quarantining.

"there are other types of immunity than just antibodies."

Can you elaborate on this?


----------



## Open Book

bz3 said:


> Given the options the Democrat voters chose the empty vessel.


It was one stupid primary that put Biden ahead and then other moderates gave up and supported Biden because they thought he has a better chance against Trump than Sanders.

This was the South Carolina primary. Why does one state have all that power to determine the face of a national election? Why is the system the way it is?


----------



## DaveM

So you guys are trying to get this thread shut down?


----------



## Open Book

DaveM said:


> So you guys are trying to get this thread shut down?


How so? We're not being contentious with each other. And that's as far as I'm going on the subject anyway.


----------



## starthrower

If you're interested in the Bernie saga check the Politico site for a detailed article on why his campaign took a nosedive. A number of factors are discussed.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/10/inside-bernies-sanders-campaign-nosedive-179576


----------



## starthrower

*...a trap that health and national security officials know too well: Prepare too early and you're called Chicken Little. Act too late - and millions may die. *
https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...two-decade-failure-prepare-coronavirus-179574


----------



## Bigbang

Barbebleu said:


> A more alarming development would be that in South Korea they tested people who had ostensibly "recovered" from Covid-19 and 91 tested positive again. Scientists may have to rethink about immunity after having had the virus. If this proves to be correct then, alarmingly, lockdown may end only when they have developed a vaccine.


Not exactly as the lockdown was done because nothing was prepared for it in the first place. Once hospitals and public are more prepared for the next round, anything goes as far as opening world economies. If scientists think the worst is over then it is over as far as governments are concerned. There is no way this shutdown will continue indefinitely until the coast is clear. I mean, to put it bluntly if the death toll can be handled without overwhelming hospitals and shutting down schools and workplaces so be it. This is not what I think but rather a reflection of how our systems operate. No, once the first wave has passed, green light....wait and see.


----------



## Open Book

Bigbang said:


> Not exactly as the lockdown was done because nothing was prepared for it in the first place. Once hospitals and public are more prepared for the next round, anything goes as far as opening world economies. If scientists think the worst is over then it is over as far as governments are concerned. There is no way this shutdown will continue indefinitely until the coast is clear. I mean, to put it bluntly if the death toll can be handled without overwhelming hospitals and shutting down schools and workplaces so be it. This is not what I think but rather a reflection of how our systems operate. No, once the first wave has passed, green light....wait and see.


"I mean, to put it bluntly if the death toll can be handled without overwhelming hospitals and shutting down schools and workplaces so be it."

What does that even mean, the death toll can be handled?

It sounds like you think things will fine as long as the hospitals have enough equipment and capacity to treat people who become critical.

On the contrary, a large number of critical people will die, are dying, even with access to the best treatment. That's acceptable to you? And it's acceptable that health care workers keep exposing themselves to this virus indefinitely?

No, the virus has got to be snuffed out.


----------



## bz3

Open Book said:


> It was one stupid primary that put Biden ahead and then other moderates gave up and supported Biden because they thought he has a better chance against Trump than Sanders.
> 
> This was the South Carolina primary. Why does one state have all that power to determine the face of a national election? Why is the system the way it is?


South Carolina has power in the DNC because American blacks vote as a bloc and in some instances they are kingmakers in the Democrat party. It doesn't matter whether they live in South Carolina, Oakland, or Gary, Indiana. They vote as a bloc.


----------



## Bigbang

Open Book said:


> "I mean, to put it bluntly if the death toll can be handled without overwhelming hospitals and shutting down schools and workplaces so be it."
> 
> What does that even mean, the death toll can be handled?
> 
> It sounds like you think things will fine as long as the hospitals have enough equipment and capacity to treat people who become critical.
> 
> On the contrary, a large number of critical people will die, are dying, even with access to the best treatment. That's acceptable to you? And it's acceptable that health care workers keep exposing themselves to this virus indefinitely?
> 
> No, the virus has got to be snuffed out.


This is not what I think personally but rather how I see it reflected in the state of affairs. There are many factors regarding the coronavirus but my opinion is that the shutdown will not go on for too long. China has already started opening the city of Wuhan. My response is to the poster about South Korea. Death has been with us for a long time. As I stated "death" is not what is going on here. There is an unknowable something that as taken the world by surprise and we were not prepared for it. The world does not stop just because people die as it goes on all the time. In fact I would say that this teaches us how callous the world really is as every year people die from influenza, yet hardly a coverage or concern. Now you just got a hint on how to protect yourself from now on. The stock market? Does the market care about "death?" Well, I mean, it has been getting a little bullish lately even with people dying at record numbers. So my point, to be clear, is the idea that the shutdown staying in place until a vaccine is developed. That is NOT going to happen as the world economies know what is at stake. The reason for the shutdown is to avoid far worse disaster but even the United States of America is not going to recover that quickly from this. So, if people are still going to die from coronavirus in one form or another, that is NOT going to stop the world. Once preparations are in place to handle it then it will be dealt with but not shut down economies simply to avoid death. If you disagree so be it but I am merely an observer and I am willing to bet that if a vaccine is not found for the coronavirus soon (I mean it will take some time..up to two years) the shutdown will be lifted gradually in places while hearing about the coronavirus and it effects on people.


----------



## Ariasexta

pianozach said:


> Thanks.
> 
> For many true empaths, this skill/gift/burden is not something they can turn off and on at will. Just like there may be a "Rain Man" out there that cannot help but count the number of pencils falling on the floor, being an Empath is not a choice, but a way of life.
> 
> I'm "lucky" in that regard because I CAN make it go away. I once had a girlfriend who could see auras. It annoyed her, and she'd go to a hypnotist who'd make it go away for awhile, and every couple of years, when her "gift" started coming back to the point where it was again an annoyance, she do the hypnotherapy again.
> 
> So . . . as far as "getting nothing in return", there's plenty in life that I experience where I get nothing in return: I see telephone poles as I'm driving, I hear noisy neighbors, I smell cigarette smoke, I feel the cold floor in the morning. I also feel others' pain. To feel is to be human.
> 
> I'm fine with your entire comment except for the following:
> 
> This God you speak of pisses me off more every single day. This is today's **** off moment. God is supposed to be All-Loving, but you speak of Him as though He's picking and choosing who gets His Pity.
> 
> So . . . God doesn't like stupid people? I mean, stupid people do foolish things. And smart people do stupid things. NO PITY regardless of whether we care for others?
> 
> You don't need to answer . . . it's mostly a rhetorical question. I already have issues with our concept of God . . . from his genocidal Great Flood to circumcision, from his vague guidebook to his 'hands-off' approach for the last 2000 years.
> 
> Man, this is one messed-up God.


I am talking from semi-god perspective, I feel people feel it. You should read Shakespeares "Timon of Athens", you need to be prepare for the burden you take on. Empathy is not a romantic feeling, it is very heavy thing, if you choose to walk the way of thorny saint I wil not stop, but this is no Joke. The problem of western people today is that, many are too romantic minded, take naivity as a kind of luxury of lifestyle. No offence, corona thing is a wake up call for the whole world, humanity had only been relative peaceful for 70 years, anything can happen the next minute.

My way of thinking is self-illumination and self-balance, I will not let any passion to sway my emotion except for music, not even death. So the reality is clear as day to me.

As to the personal superpower, I am open to it, I believe I have something too. Just do not let it to bother your normal life while you can share on the internet.

God is almighty, still, show compassion without self-awareness of the act is not really an act of self-improvement, peoples haert is as thorny as Jesu`s crown. I have given up on living in compassion lifestyle, just try to be true to myself, but it does not mean I opt for violence, not at all. Quite the opposite. I scorn violence.

I do not doubt your determination, just, I can not be unresponsible much to cheerleader everything that only seems fine and OK. Sometimes, I just feel bad things will happen to people like you. While there are naive people like you, there will also be some venomous scorpions lurking beside them.


----------



## KenOC

Not sure what God has to do with this. We are enduring a relatively minor virus pandemic that is consistent with our numbers and physical closeness, and with the natural tendency of viruses to mutate and attack the most available natural hosts that will support their spread.

Darwin would smile and nod.


----------



## senza sordino

I was out for a lengthy bike ride today. There were a lot of people about, though here we do not have a shelter in place order, only recommendations. Gatherings over ten are banned, restaurants and other businesses closed, and physical distancing signs everywhere. But we don't have an actual shelter in place order like NY, Italy, California etc.

There were a lot of other cyclists out today. Here everyone is required to wear a helmet, not just kids, everyone. But people still don't wear helmets. I do. I find it curious that people will wear a face mask while cycling but not a helmet. Worried they'll catch the virus but not worried they will get a concussion.

I read something in the Guardian this morning that caught my eye. It's a quote from graffiti in Hong Kong:


> There can be no return to normal because normal was the problem in the first place


And I'll quote Nicola Sturgeon again:


> If this hasn't changed your life then you're not doing it right


6092 people died today, Saturday. Though this number of daily deaths worldwide is inconsistent because a death is not always recorded on the day the death of an individual actually occurred.


----------



## Jacck

starthrower said:


> *...a trap that health and national security officials know too well: Prepare too early and you're called Chicken Little. Act too late - and millions may die. *
> https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...two-decade-failure-prepare-coronavirus-179574


some people are too stupid to be able to judge risks correctly. I remember that even in my country during the SARS, H1N1 etc outbreaks there were people laughing at it and saying that the media produce hysteria. At the beginning of this pandemic, these same people laughed and said that it is just a little flu and the media create hysteria etc. If the coronavirus did not become a pandemic, they would feel vincidated and would feel how clever they were, because knew right from the beginning. These same kind of people themselves become hysteric, if we accept a couple of Syrian refugees. It is unfortunate that these people have voting rights.


----------



## erki

DaveM said:


> So you guys are trying to get this thread shut down?


The deeper we go into the crisis the more I can not see how it would be possible to separate health and political issues. Mostly in USA right now, but I am sure political issues arise in EU as well. In normal times it is tolerable if your government is inadequate - the machinery will run on its own with clerks doing their job anyway. But when you need one person to lead who sees the whole picture(with help of experts) you can not afford clowns or big egos. It's like decision one way may result of death of hundreds of real people. And accountability is just a fiction.
So let us talk politics as well.


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> It is unfortunate that these people have voting rights.


True, it is so much easier to spread stupidity than wisdom. You may see your hard work educating people wiped away with one crook presenting a fact in cleverly chosen words and out of context.


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> True, it is so much easier to spread stupidity than wisdom. You may see your hard work educating people wiped away with one crook presenting a fact in cleverly chosen words and out of context.


A fight over data infiltrates Trumpworld's response to coronavirus
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/10/trump-coronavirus-data-modeling-179226

_"But in recent days, as scientists lowered projections for deaths from Covid-19 - in large part, scientists said, because social distancing is working - influential conservatives began casting the data as evidence the virus was never really that bad."_


----------



## premont

Open Book said:


> We're going to end up with an elderly president again. With all the candidates we started out with I'm not sure how that happened.


Gerontocracy isn't a new thing.


----------



## mrdoc

KenOC said:


> Not sure what God has to do with this. We are enduring a relatively minor virus pandemic that is consistent with our numbers and physical closeness, and with the natural tendency of viruses to mutate and attack the most available natural hosts that will support their spread.
> 
> Darwin would smile and nod.


Ken with the greatest respect I wonder what Darwin would smile at?? a virus that kills its host seems to me to be a pretty dumb thing a ma jig... :tiphat:


----------



## EdwardBast

mrdoc said:


> Ken with the greatest respect I wonder what Darwin would smile at?? *a virus that kills its host seems to me to be a pretty dumb thing a ma jig...* :tiphat:


Any "soft machine" making its way around the globe in a matter of months is well designed - QED.


----------



## Bigbang

mrdoc said:


> Ken with the greatest respect I wonder what Darwin would smile at?? a virus that kills its host seems to me to be a pretty dumb thing a ma jig... :tiphat:


Without taking your response literally as I got the hint, that said, the virus mutates collectively so it does what it does based on what we do and what we do not. The virus does not have an "intent" rather the need to mutate and so it is beyond our scope to know what will happen until it does.


----------



## Jacck

Bigbang said:


> Not exactly as the lockdown was done because nothing was prepared for it in the first place. Once hospitals and public are more prepared for the next round, anything goes as far as opening world economies. If scientists think the worst is over then it is over as far as governments are concerned. There is no way this shutdown will continue indefinitely until the coast is clear. I mean, to put it bluntly if the death toll can be handled without overwhelming hospitals and shutting down schools and workplaces so be it. This is not what I think but rather a reflection of how our systems operate. No, once the first wave has passed, green light....wait and see.


we are already there in my country. We managed the first wave, we are slowly opening, and they expect a second wave. They don't say it straight for political reasons, but they decided that controled herd immunity is the only way. Their goal is not to stop it, but merely to slow it so the hospitals can manage the influx of patients. I seriously hope the virus does not have some unpleasant surprises like long-term health consequences or loss of immunity after a couple months.


----------



## Luchesi

Ariasexta said:


> I am talking from semi-god perspective, I feel people feel it. You should read Shakespeares "Timon of Athens", you need to be prepare for the burden you take on. Empathy is not a romantic feeling, it is very heavy thing, if you choose to walk the way of thorny saint I wil not stop, but this is no Joke. The problem of western people today is that, many are too romantic minded, take naivity as a kind of luxury of lifestyle. No offence, corona thing is a wake up call for the whole world, humanity had only been relative peaceful for 70 years, anything can happen the next minute.
> 
> My way of thinking is self-illumination and self-balance, I will not let any passion to sway my emotion except for music, not even death. So the reality is clear as day to me.
> 
> As to the personal superpower, I am open to it, I believe I have something too. Just do not let it to bother your normal life while you can share on the internet.
> 
> God is almighty, still, show compassion without self-awareness of the act is not really an act of self-improvement, peoples haert is as thorny as Jesu`s crown. I have given up on living in compassion lifestyle, just try to be true to myself, but it does not mean I opt for violence, not at all. Quite the opposite. I scorn violence.
> 
> I do not doubt your determination, just, I can not be unresponsible much to cheerleader everything that only seems fine and OK. Sometimes, I just feel bad things will happen to people like you. While there are naive people like you, there will also be some venomous scorpions lurking beside them.


Down through history during scary times old opinions about a god were the justifications for blaming and persecuting and pogroms etc. Quite wacky ideas at times, nevertheless deadly (atrocities). What will the fundy preachers and the other true believers in the various 'faiths' come up with this time? Will civilized thinkers be able to hold them at bay?


----------



## elgar's ghost

BBC really nettling me about how the UK will be 'among the most affected in Europe' in terms of cases and deaths. No ******, Sherlock - with a population approaching 65 million how f*****g low were they expecting the figures to be?


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> BBC really nettling me about how the UK will be 'among the most affected in Europe' in terms of cases and deaths. No ******, Sherlock - with a population approaching 65 million how f*****g low were they expecting the figures to be?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-coronavirus-death-rate-says-pandemic-expert
they said *death rate*
and that is scaled to the size of the population
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate


----------



## Guest

elgars ghost said:


> BBC really nettling me about how the UK will be 'among the most affected in Europe' in terms of cases and deaths. No ******, Sherlock - with a population approaching 65 million how f*****g low were they expecting the figures to be?


Funny, that. Germany has a similar population and SOOOO MANY FEWER deaths. Go, Germany!
Cue Haydn:


----------



## Guest

Luckily for me I live slap bang on the border with Germany. The minute the French farg it up I'll be off over there in a blink of an eye. So glad not to be living in the UK.


----------



## Bigbang

Flamme said:


> They call it the ''boomer remover'' because it allegedly targets the elder population, but who will have a last laugh if the next strain choses to attack younger ppl, zoomers, xrs and such...


One thing to keep in mind is this: It is not really about older people dying from covid-19. When a person lives to boomer age odds go up for dieases, accidents (falls,etc) and of course, mental decline. First, compared to past history boomers are able to live longer in spite of not eating the best diet, one reason is medicine.

Diet plays a huge role in this pandemic. If you are a healthy person eating a varied diet that gives you proper nutrition (plants, fruits, and less meats and highly processed foods and beverages) your body immune system is functioning at a higher level. For example, a boomer has a heart attack. Boomer is shocked to find out heart disease is now part of life. But heart disease was already present but brought into being by factors such as living longer, diet, no exercise, genes (?) and many other factors. Guess what? Those younger people are on the same track to live longer, many have far worse diet growing up and present, so will be also dealing with the same issues if not worse if viruses mutate to attack the weakest of the weak. In fact, maybe earlier. But, we have gyms, new trends on eating healthy and the like so maybe another outcome.

It has already been reported that the underlying main diseases play a role (heart, diabetes, lung etc) but I think it need to be address why and how people get to the point of being sick like this. In other words, covid-19 is not going after boomers per-se but people who are already sick to begin with. If you have chronic issues and yet are not diagnosed, you have underlying health problems. My point is this: Worry about health first and not age. If diet is not good now is the time to research how to eat better one day at a time. This is like medicine and your body will let you know this is working or not.


----------



## elgar's ghost

TalkingHead said:


> Funny, that. Germany has a similar population and SOOOO MANY FEWER deaths. Go, Germany!
> Cue Haydn:


Yes - I appreciate your example but Germany seems anomalous. The other highly-populated countries in Western Europe are all high in both cases and deaths - as are Belgium and the Netherlands in terms of cases and deaths per 1m of the population. Both cases and deaths are down in the UK today compared to yesterday but no mention of that on the BBC - I know one day can be different to the next but if today's figures were up on yesterday's instead of down the BBC wouldn't hesitate to mention it.


----------



## DaveM

Bigbang said:


> ...It has already been reported that the underlying main diseases play a role (heart, diabetes, lung etc) but I think it need to be address why and how people get to the point of being sick like this. In other words, covid-19 is not going after boomers per-se but people who are already sick to begin with. If you have chronic issues and yet are not diagnosed, you have underlying health problems. My point is this: Worry about health first and not age. If diet is not good now is the time to research how to eat better one day at a time. This is like medicine and your body will let you know this is working or not.


One of the factors _regardless of age_ -separate from the comorbidities that comes with it- that adds to mortality once a person requires a ventilator is obesity, particularly morbid obesity. A huge belly becomes a dead weight pushing up against the chest when patients are recumbent and heavily sedated and these people require higher doses of sedation to relax them and to prevent 'bucking on the tube' since an endotracheal tube triggers powerful laryngeal reflexes.


----------



## Guest

elgars ghost said:


> Yes - I appreciate your example but Germany seems anomalous. The other highly-populated countries in Western Europe are all high in both cases and deaths - as are Belgium and the Netherlands in terms of cases and deaths per 1m of the population. Both cases and deaths are down in the UK today compared to yesterday but no mention of that on the BBC - I know one day can be different to the next but if today's figures were up on yesterday's instead of down the BBC wouldn't hesitate to mention it.


So your post #2278 was an anti-BBC rant. Me, I'm grateful for the BBC and so are millions of others across the globe.
Cue Elgar (and get moving to it):


----------



## Bigbang

KenOC said:


> Not sure what God has to do with this. We are enduring a relatively minor virus pandemic that is consistent with our numbers and physical closeness, and with the natural tendency of viruses to mutate and attack the most available natural hosts that will support their spread.
> 
> Darwin would smile and nod.


Actually Darwin would have to go back to school and be brought up to the sciences of today. Some people (will not call them by name or associations) think evolutionary science is somehow linked to Darwin only but not so. As if you attack Darwin and create doubt one can overthrow his ideas out of the schools. But, the folly is that it is Darwin that would be thrown out not the theory. His ideas, like all scientific ones have a place in time but science moves on improving on them and will always do so.


----------



## Open Book

Bigbang said:


> Diet plays a huge role in this pandemic. If you are a healthy person eating a varied diet that gives you proper nutrition (plants, fruits, and less meats and highly processed foods and beverages) your body immune system is functioning at a higher level. For example, a boomer has a heart attack. Boomer is shocked to find out heart disease is now part of life. But heart disease was already present but brought into being by factors such as living longer, diet, no exercise, genes (?) and many other factors. Guess what? Those younger people are on the same track to live longer, many have far worse diet growing up and present, so will be also dealing with the same issues if not worse if viruses mutate to attack the weakest of the weak. In fact, maybe earlier. But, we have gyms, new trends on eating healthy and the like so maybe another outcome.
> 
> It has already been reported that the underlying main diseases play a role (heart, diabetes, lung etc) but I think it need to be address why and how people get to the point of being sick like this. In other words, covid-19 is not going after boomers per-se but people who are already sick to begin with. If you have chronic issues and yet are not diagnosed, you have underlying health problems. My point is this: Worry about health first and not age. If diet is not good now is the time to research how to eat better one day at a time. This is like medicine and your body will let you know this is working or not.


Does it give you comfort that only people who do bad things to their bodies are likely to die from the virus? And maybe that in some way it serves those people right? And it probably won't happen to you because you are health-conscious?

Young, healthy-seeming people have died. They don't know why yet, it could be something about their genetic makeup. There's no proof yet that we should "Worry about health first and not age."


----------



## elgar's ghost

TalkingHead said:


> So your post #2278 was an anti-BBC rant. Me, I'm grateful for the BBC and so are millions of others across the globe.
> Cue Elgar (and get moving to it):


Yes it was, but I am nevertheless calm, thank you. I don't make a habit out of dissing the BBC but if they are going to play the death-toll game on a day-to-day basis then I don't see why they can't make the best of a bad situation by mentioning figures if they happen to be down. Am I being unreasonable?


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> "I mean, to put it bluntly if the death toll can be handled without overwhelming hospitals and shutting down schools and workplaces so be it."
> 
> What does that even mean, the death toll can be handled?
> 
> . . .


The whole lockdown/shelter-in-place thing is to slow the virus. It cannot be stopped.

Left unchecked there will be too many critical cases simultaneously, the hospitals will be overwhelmed, filled to capacity and more, and when that happens, the death rate ends up being much higher.

I just making up numbers here for the sake of example, but it's easier to handle 10 cases/week for 10 weeks than it is to handle 100 cases in a single week. That many cannot be efficiently handled and a higher percentage will die than if there are only 10 cases to handle.

They're calling it "flattening the curve" for a good reason.



erki said:


> The deeper we go into the crisis the more I can not see how it would be possible to separate health and political issues. . . . .


In this country (USA) we have managed to politicize things that have no business being politicized, including health care.

Collectively, we're idiots.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> The whole lockdown/shelter-in-place thing is to slow the virus. It cannot be stopped.
> 
> Left unchecked there will be too many critical cases simultaneously, the hospitals will be overwhelmed, filled to capacity and more, and when that happens, the death rate ends up being much higher.
> 
> I just making up numbers here for the sake of example, but it's easier to handle 10 cases/week for 10 weeks than it is to handle 100 cases in a single week. That many cannot be efficiently handled and a higher percentage will die than if there are only 10 cases to handle.
> 
> They're calling it "flattening the curve" for a good reason.


Of course it's going to be worse if the hospitals are overwhelmed. Then they can't give everyone maximum treatment. Stricken people have a better chance of living with the proper treatment.

But even with everyone receiving the best treatment in the world, the death rate from this virus is looking frighteningly high. I don't think people get that.


----------



## DaveM

Open Book said:


> ... There's no proof yet that we should "Worry about health first and not age."


But there is and plenty of it. Particularly, in this instance, health trumps age. There are already statistics that show the health comorbidities that particularly contribute to mortality. Older age brings with it more health concerns, but it is the latter that is operative more than the former.

There are exceptions to the rule such as younger people with no major health concerns who die quickly, likely due to immune-response inflammation (which may or may not due to some individual factors), but there are also people over 100 years of age who have survived the disease.


----------



## Luchesi

Bigbang said:


> Actually Darwin would have to go back to school and be brought up to the sciences of today. Some people (will not call them by name or associations) think evolutionary science is somehow linked to Darwin only but not so. As if you attack Darwin and create doubt one can overthrow his ideas out of the schools. But, the folly is that it is Darwin that would be thrown out not the theory. His ideas, like all scientific ones have a place in time but science moves on improving on them and will always do so.


Darwin really wanted to know how the sun could burn long enough for his theory to be a reasonable one. Yes, Darwin didn't know about DNA or mutations or retroviruses for a true understanding of the natural world.


----------



## Luchesi

Open Book said:


> Of course it's going to be worse if the hospitals are overwhelmed. Then they can't give everyone maximum treatment. Stricken people have a better chance of living with the proper treatment.
> 
> But even with everyone receiving the best treatment in the world, the death rate from this virus is looking frighteningly high. I don't think people get that.


Boris has done well. Good treatment.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-coronavirus-death-rate-says-pandemic-expert
> they said *death rate*
> and that is scaled to the size of the population
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate


That Wikipedia map doesn't look like I would expect. For instance, Iran looks better than any country in Europe.

I wonder if it's because birth rate is factored in.


----------



## Bigbang

Open Book said:


> Does it give you comfort that only people who do bad things to their bodies are likely to die from the virus? And maybe that in some way it serves those people right? And it probably won't happen to you because you are health-conscious?
> 
> Young, healthy-seeming people have died. They don't know why yet, it could be something about their genetic makeup. There's no proof yet that we should "Worry about health first and not age."


You have already mis-read my response on my post to another so I will not bother to expend too much efforts to convince you here.

Gives me no comfort as I saw it over and over before the virus. The virus has no monopoly on bad health. Lots of factors determine health including one I find maybe the biggest of all--ignorance, smug, arrogance, conceit, and no desire to change habits. Yes, for the most part, people choose the diet or habits that bring on their health issues and if live long enough endure it with modern medicine. Not many willing to change habits but a few do when they start getting hints that something must change. My feelings are not relevant in how I see the virus coverage and people affected.

Cannot do anything about age so stuck with it and getting older. Better to arm yourself with all the tools (as stated in the media--SD, handwashing, etc) and there have been information about eating healthy but the coverage is not as extensive since this is an emergency, not time to deal with food per-se.

Young healthy people have died: But, unlikely they are that healthy anymore the average person that age. We can fight off lots of things when young but the toll begins we are growing up.

Yes, genetic makeup is involved in in all health, including good and bad so this remark by doctors and media at this point is rather not useful.

No proof that we should worry about health first....well, of course correct like all ideas the media throws out everything under the sun including health (as I stated before) but it is up to each person to decide for themselves. The family highlighted about the deaths in family---say genetic--yes, this seems logical BUT I noticed some things missing we do not have or privy to, such as their health current up until then.

So I for one will keep doing what I can--SD, Wash hands, and eat as good as I can afford to or desire to.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> That Wikipedia map doesn't look like I would expect. For instance, Iran looks better than any country in Europe.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age


----------



## Kieran

elgars ghost said:


> Yes it was, but I am nevertheless calm, thank you. I don't make a habit out of dissing the BBC but if they are going to play the death-toll game on a day-to-day basis then I don't see why they can't make the best of a bad situation by mentioning figures if they happen to be down. Am I being unreasonable?


Negative, you're not being unreasonable - and as we've seen over the last few years, old auntie Beeb is not above criticism for how they handle certain stories. The media love The Big Scare. They love to dolefully wheel out the latest figures, suck their gums and declare us all f*cked. The numbers on this virus are thus far _minuscule_. People are doing their best to combat it and keep it that way. They don't need apocalyptic speculating and Armageddon territory doom-mongering too...


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> One of the factors _regardless of age_ -separate from the comorbidities that comes with it- that adds to mortality once a person requires a ventilator is obesity, particularly morbid obesity. A huge belly becomes a dead weight pushing up against the chest when patients are recumbent and heavily sedated and these people require higher doses of sedation to relax them and to prevent 'bucking on the tube' since an endotracheal tube triggers powerful laryngeal reflexes.


I would also think COPD, past smoking habits, how much oxygen a person has been getting, asthma (currently allergy season) all have a part but I have not read anything. Not too mention what medicines people might be taking, who knows what all can be going on in these statistics.


----------



## eljr

DaveM said:


> One of the factors _regardless of age_ -separate from the comorbidities that comes with it- that adds to mortality once a person requires a ventilator is obesity, particularly morbid obesity. *A huge belly becomes a dead weight pushing up against the chest* when patients are recumbent and heavily sedated and these people require higher doses of sedation to relax them and to prevent 'bucking on the tube' since an endotracheal tube triggers powerful laryngeal reflexes.


they sometimes lay them on their stomach


----------



## DaveM

Bigbang said:


> I would also think COPD, past smoking habits, how much oxygen a person has been getting, asthma (currently allergy season) all have a part but I have not read anything...


Absolutely true. People who have been smoking for 20+ years will be more at risk when pneumonia hits.


----------



## DaveM

eljr said:


> they sometimes lay them on their stomach


That's one of those things that would have seemed counterintuitive in the not too distant past and yet, in selected cases, it's seems to improve ventilation.


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> *We are enduring a relatively minor virus pandemic* that is consistent with our numbers and physical closeness, and with the natural tendency of viruses to mutate and attack the most available natural hosts that will support their spread.
> 
> Darwin would smile and nod.


what a strange thing to say


----------



## eljr

senza sordino said:


> Though this number of daily deaths worldwide is inconsistent because a death is not always recorded on the day the death of an individual actually occurred.


plus, here in the states, they are not counting people who die at home which is never a small number 
Deaths at home are up over 400%.


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> At the beginning of this pandemic, these same people laughed and said that it is just a little flu .


morons are still calling it a simple flu

mostly people in red states of course


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Our county votes Republican . Zero reported cases of Covid here and in adjacent counties also . When we hear that its symptoms are flu-like , seems ok to call it the flu . We do not inflict reality on others , and nobody much comes visiting . Personally , I do not vote and do a lot of solo travelling but do not stop in cities . Friends have no social distancing practice here . Those who do that are tolerated . Those who wear masks can be ambushed with a marker pen . They get a smiley face so as not to be confused with an Alien Grey .


----------



## Bigbang

Tikoo Tuba said:


> Our county votes Republican . Zero reported cases of Covid here and in adjacent counties also . When we hear that its symptoms are flu-like , seems ok to call it the flu . We do not inflict reality on others , and nobody much comes visiting . Personally , I do not vote and do a lot of solo travelling but do not stop in cities . Friends have no social distancing practice here . Those who do that are tolerated . Those who wear masks can be ambushed with a marker pen . They get a smiley face so as not to be confused with an Alien Grey .


And what planet are you from again?


----------



## Joe B

Tikoo Tuba said:


> Our county votes Republican . Zero reported cases of Covid here and in adjacent counties also . When we hear that its symptoms are flu-like , seems ok to call it the flu . We do not inflict reality on others , and nobody much comes visiting . Personally , I do not vote and do a lot of solo travelling but do not stop in cities . Friends have no social distancing practice here . Those who do that are tolerated . Those who wear masks can be ambushed with a marker pen . They get a smiley face so as not to be confused with an Alien Grey .


The post was better before you edited it.


----------



## Guest

elgars ghost said:


> BBC really nettling me about how the UK will be 'among the most affected in Europe' in terms of cases and deaths. No ******, Sherlock - with a population approaching 65 million how f*****g low were they expecting the figures to be?


You, of course, are aware that the BBC is a highly politicized and activist organization - as is much of the mainstream media these days and the primary reason it's so on the nose. Of course, the Left would be screaming if it was conservatism that they were promoting!! Such hypocrisy. I wish Roger Scruton was still around to tell us what he thinks of the BBC. Boris wants to turn it into a subscription service and that's fair. I wish they'd do the same here to 'their' ABC. It needs the chain pulled.

Heads up; the lying, activist (aka 'fake') media is one of the reasons the USA got Trump!! But, please don't think about it; much easier to revert to Trump Derangement Syndrome.

On another note, it's good to see PM Boris Johnson up and about. Apparently he had only a 50/50 chance of survival. I hope he puts those cigarettes in the garbage now.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Bigbang said:


> And what planet are you from again?


Iowa , USA . Artist in residence .


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Joe B said:


> The post was better before you edited it.


So what . Explain yourself or not .


----------



## KenOC

Some interesting numbers. First, two places where the virus seems to have largely run its course are China and the State of Washington, USA. In China, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has settled down at 4.1%, and in Washington it’s 4.7%. These are deaths among diagnosed cases, so they don’t take undiagnosed cases into account (nor can they). The closeness of the two results suggests a death rate from the virus in the 4-5% range.

Second, the virus has hit the US much harder than it hit China. The number of cases, adjusted for population, is 29.6 times that of China, and the US case count will likely double before this is all over. Similarly, deaths, again adjusted for population, are 28.6 times China’s numbers at the moment.


----------



## bz3

Christabel said:


> You, of course, are aware that the BBC is a highly politicized and activist organization - as is much of the mainstream media these days and the primary reason it's so on the nose. Of course, the Left would be screaming if it was conservatism that they were promoting!! Such hypocrisy. I wish Roger Scruton was still around to tell us what he thinks of the BBC. Boris wants to turn it into a subscription service and that's fair. I wish they'd do the same here to 'their' ABC. It needs the chain pulled.
> 
> Heads up; the lying, activist (aka 'fake') media is one of the reasons the USA got Trump!! But, please don't think about it; much easier to revert to Trump Derangement Syndrome.
> 
> On another note, it's good to see PM Boris Johnson up and about. Apparently he had only a 50/50 chance of survival. I hope he puts those cigarettes in the garbage now.


BBC is some Twilight Zone stuff. The New York Times is pretty bad, a truly gutter level publication, and the Washington Post is nothing but a US State Department and Silicon Valley propaganda organ but the BBC seems to really take the cake on la-la land type stuff, at least from my perspective. Le Monde and Der Spiegel I have to assume are about as useless, though I don't read either frequently. The corporate class in all of our nations is truly disconnected.


----------



## Guest

I have read Niall Ferguson's little book, "*The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die*" and I believe some of the answer to what I've said about the media resides in that book. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING. Trust in institutions is in an international all-time low and inequality is on the rise in the USA, which now has very little by way of a middle class. Those who are middle class, the bien pensant (or as Trump calls them, "the swamp") are calling most of the shots and the rest of the people are forgotten about. And Ferguson takes note of one unique aspect of the modern world: "the developing world's new megacities - conurbations with populations of more than 10 million - will thus play a defining role in the 21st century".

And now my own perceptions: putting people into that kind of proximity and density with one another has two consequences: one is that a shared sense of culture appears (I'm talking about life culture rather than artistic culture) and groupthink becomes more pervasive. The second is DISEASE, which becomes more of a threat. This last might provide the 'answer' as to why the UK has had a higher proportion of Covid-19 sufferers than Germany. The former with a capital city of *nearly 9 million* and a country whose largest city, Berlin, is over 3 million but less intensively urbanized.

I offer a further suggestion about the mortality rate of the USA, which seems disproportionately represented amongst African Americans. Covid-19 is a disease which attacks the aged and/or co-morbidity with regard to health. I submit that Germany has far lower rates of obesity and high blood pressure than either the UK or the USA. But I'm watching out for expert opinion on this.


----------



## Jacck

Christabel said:


> Heads up; the lying, activist (aka 'fake') media is one of the reasons the USA got Trump!! But, please don't think about it; much easier to revert to Trump Derangement Syndrome.


the nazis also complained about the Lügenpresse
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lying_press
a Trump as indeed the new messiah
https://azqev28564.i.lithium.com/t5...87293C2FFE7B215/image-size/large?v=1.0&px=999
:lol:


----------



## geralmar

I remain skeptical.


----------



## KenOC

The CDC says about *80,000 people died of influenza last year* in the US. About 60,000 are due to die of Covid-19 this year, while flu deaths are down quite a bit due to social distancing.

I have to wonder whether this situation is worth cratering the US economy and further increasing debt to a level that our unfortunate progeny can never hope to repay.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> The CDC says about *80,000 people died of influenza last year* in the US. About 60,000 are due to die of Covid-19 this year, while flu deaths are down quite a bit due to social distancing.
> 
> I have to wonder whether this situation is worth cratering the US economy and further increasing debt to a level that our unfortunate progeny can never hope to repay.


60,000 will die because of the containment measures. Without the measures, 600,000 would die. It is naive to expect that you will just open the economy and people would go to business as usual - going to restaurants, concerts, cinemas, hotels, cruise ships, traveling


----------



## schigolch

The February cases were mostly flu or coronavirus?.

In Spain, for instance, a patient died of pneumonia induced by coronavirus as early as February, 13th.

This was going mostly under the radar, because the protocol at that time only suspected coronavirus, if there were "risk contacts" associated to travel or with people already diagnosed of coronavirus.

CDC is using an statistical model, not real diagnosis. In Spain there was also a statistical peak of influenza in February... Then again, the big jump of coronavirus cases in Italy happened on February, 22nd... I don't believe much in coincidences.

In any case, the big fear with COVID is that, leave unchecked, it would go to ravage the older population. Not only the elder, of course, but mostly. The final count of fatalities could reach the 1918 flu levels. For the US, and adjusting to the bigger population, that could mean around two million people.

Of course, if the situation is worth cratering the US economy is a very difficult one to answer. In my view, maybe the right move would have been first to be much better prepared, and second go for the isolation of the people most at risk of having serious disease, and let the majority of the population go ahead with their lives. Very difficult to set up and manage, clearly, but maybe a better response than indiscriminate lock downs.


----------



## Art Rock

I don't know what the 60000 for the USA is based on. The infection has run its course longer in Italy and Spain, and one can see that the top of deaths per day has been passed there. A simple extrapolation, assuming a symmetrical curve, yields 23000-25000 deaths by the end of the infection for these countries, which translated to the USA (based on population ratio) would mean around 150000 deaths.


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> 60,000 will die because of the containment measures. Without the measures, 600,000 would die. It is naive to expect that you will just open the economy and people would go to business as usual - going to restaurants, concerts, cinemas, hotels, cruise ships, traveling


I would not expect that a citizen of another country would be overly-concerned about the fiscal strength of the US economy. But I suggest that taking our lumps now, rather than buying our way out by leveraging what's left of our progeny's earning power (slim as it is), might be the better course.


----------



## KenOC

Art Rock said:


> I don't know what the 60000 for the USA is based on. The infection has run its course longer in Italy and Spain, and one can see that the top of deaths per day has been passed there. A simple extrapolation, assuming a symmetrical curve, yields 23000-25000 deaths by the end of the infection for these countries, which translated to the USA (based on population ratio) would mean around 150000 deaths.


This is based on the *IHME projections*, which show a total of 61,545 deaths in the US.


----------



## Art Rock

"assuming full social distancing through May"

Good luck with that.


----------



## Jacck

schigolch said:


> Of course, if the situation is worth cratering the US economy is a very difficult one to answer. In my view, maybe the right move would have been first to be much better prepared, and second go for the isolation of the people most at risk of having serious disease, and let the majority of the population go ahead with their lives. Very difficult to set up and manage, clearly, but maybe a better response than indiscriminate lock downs.


The economy will crater no matter what, especially a largely service sector based economy like the US, Italy and Spain. If people start dying en masse, it will alter the behavior of people. They will stop using services, they will stop spending money. A recession is unavoidable. The dilemma health or economy is a false one
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pedrod...onomics-lessons-from-the-spanish-flu-in-1918/


----------



## schigolch

The recession is unavoidable. 

What we are discussing here is between a recession and the mother of all recessions.

Arguably, this is the place where we are all heading now. Is the right way to handle the situation?. Open to discussion. As said before, I think that we need to see if the lockdowns finally work, or not. So far, outside of China, we don't have proof. There is indeed a slower rate of infections and deaths in Italy and Spain, but still thousands of new daily cases and hundreds of daily deaths. More than one month into the lockdown. 

As I hope is clear to everyone that we can't just extend the lockdowns indefinitely, we need to get an exit in case it's not working after all. Or face insurrections, famine,... Lockdowns are not only affecting wealthy middle class people, that can afford it. 

Isolating the elder, and starting to go ahead with as much of our lives as possible, until a cure is found, could be a solution if lockdowns are not working.


----------



## Sad Al

Jacck said:


> The economy will crater no matter what, especially a largely service sector based economy like the US, Italy and Spain. If people start dying en masse, it will alter the behavior of people.


Enter the Mad Max world. All you need isn't love. It's canned dogfood, gasoline, a shotgun and ammo


----------



## mmsbls

KenOC said:


> ...
> I have to wonder whether this situation is worth cratering the US economy and further increasing debt to a level that our unfortunate progeny can never hope to repay.





schigolch said:


> Of course, if the situation is worth cratering the US economy is a very difficult one to answer. In my view, maybe the right move would have been first to be much better prepared, and second go for the isolation of the people most at risk of having serious disease, and let the majority of the population go ahead with their lives. Very difficult to set up and manage, clearly, but maybe a better response than indiscriminate lock downs.


I have not seen any studies that attempt to compare sheltering in place with major disruptions to the economy to not sheltering in place and letting the virus take its course. I assume some groups have done such studies, but perhaps the results are not ready for prime time. I tried to do a simple comparison of the two scenarios for the US using what I considered reasonable inputs. The results show that sheltering in place is vastly preferable to taking no action.

I don't know if there exits a third scenario that is less restrictive than a full sheltering in place but that has a similar effect. I haven't heard any experts talk explicitly about such a scenario at this point. Possibly when we get vastly more testing, we could open society up for some people during the next round of infections.


----------



## Jacck

schigolch said:


> The recession is unavoidable.
> 
> What we are discussing here is between a recession and the mother of all recessions.
> 
> Arguably, this is the place where we are all heading now. Is the right way to handle the situation?. Open to discussion. As said before, I think that we need to see if the lockdowns finally work, or not. So far, outside of China, we don't have proof. There is indeed a slower rate of infections and deaths in Italy and Spain, but still thousands of new daily cases and hundreds of daily deaths. More than one month into the lockdown.
> 
> As I hope is clear to everyone that we can't just extend the lockdowns indefinitely, we need to get an exit in case it's not working after all. Or face insurrections, famine,... Lockdowns are not only affecting wealthy middle class people, that can afford it.
> 
> Isolating the elder, and starting to go ahead with as much of our lives as possible, until a cure is found, could be a solution if lockdowns are not working.


we have managed to reduce the R0 to about 1.1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_..._the_Czech_Republic#Basic_reproduction_number
so the lockdowns work.


----------



## Jacck

Sad Al said:


> Enter the Mad Max world. All you need isn't love. It's canned dogfood, gasoline, a shotgun and ammo


a libertarian dream come true. The state is finally gone, marauding bands and warlords rule.


----------



## schigolch

To me, this is still to be proved. Again, we have thousands of daily new cases, and hundreds of new deaths.

After more than one month into the lockdown, where are the new cases coming from?. 

Work means to get a situation like the one there is in Wuhan, now. If this happens in Europe and the US, then lockdown works. If we are still having one month from now thousands of new cases in each country, then it doesn't work.

I don't know why you are against something as reasonable as trying a new approach if the current one is not working. What I can tell you for sure, and I don't need any study to predict that, is that the lockdown approach either it's clear that is working the Wuhan way in the next few weeks, or it will shelved. Simply, there is no way to get this running month after month after month.


----------



## Jacck

schigolch said:


> To me, this is still to be proved. Again, we have thousands of daily new cases, and hundreds of new deaths.
> 
> After more than one month into the lockdown, where are the new cases coming from?.
> 
> Work means to get a situation like the one there is in Wuhan, now. If this happens in Europe and the US, then lockdown works. If we are still having one month from now thousands of new cases in each country, then it doesn't work.
> 
> I don't know why you are against something as reasonable as trying a new approach if the current one is not working. What I can tell you for sure, and I don't need any study to predict that, is that the lockdown approach either it's clear that is working the Wuhan way in the next few weeks, or it will shelved. Simply, there is no way to get this running month after month after month.


I do not know how strict the lockdows are in Spain and how disciplined the Spanish people are in adhering to the rules. My guess is that you managed to stop the exponential growth, but there is still some growth, hence the new cases (though it is no longer exponential). If you release the lockdown, cases will increase, but not as much as at the beginning, because people will be more careful and there will be no more large gatherings. No one has a perfect recipe how to deal with the situation


----------



## Sad Al

Jacck said:


> a libertarian dream come true. The state is finally gone, marauding bands and warlords rule.


That's freedom! "Not man-made Christianity of the churches, but Christ's Christianity will make you free" -Johannes Greber


----------



## Madiel

Jacck said:


> 60,000 will die because of the containment measures. Without the measures, 600,000 would die.


lockdown's only effect is to flatten the curve, no matter what you do - lockdown or other measures - the number of people who will get the virus will be the same, with the lockdown you only spread over time the number of cases needing to be treated into ICU, this is how dr. Dan Yamin - an epidemiologist at Tel Aviv University who in the past has elaborated models to contain ebola in Liberia - explains it:

"We do not move about in space like particles. Try to remember what you did yesterday. Even without all the social distancing measures, you probably would have met the same people you met today. We move across networks of social contact. So, from a certain stage, it will be difficult to infect even those who bear a potential for becoming infected, because the carriers don't wander around looking for new people to infect."

in the end the lockdown is a sort of time out that once an event has caught you unprepared you will use to make adjustments (increase ICU, acquire ventilators et cetera) so to be ready to face the new situation. A prolonged lockdown does not eliminate the virus, but it creates different kinds of public health and public order issues which in the end will make even more damage than the virus itself.


----------



## mmsbls

In Spain the number of new cases a day have decreased by roughly 50% and there does appear to be a clear downward trend. In the US the states of Washington and California have clear downward trends and New York and the US as a whole have flattened new cases. So the measures put in place in these places are working. The question is how low will the curve for new cases (and deaths) go. The hope is that social distancing will continue until the curves get close to zero. The shape of the curves depend strongly on how strictly nations or states abide by the rules. 

I think the big question is what policies to put in place when the curves get close to zero and exactly when to enact those policies.


----------



## Kieran

schigolch said:


> To me, this is still to be proved. Again, we have thousands of daily new cases, and hundreds of new deaths.
> 
> After more than one month into the lockdown, where are the new cases coming from?.
> 
> Work means to get a situation like the one there is in Wuhan, now. If this happens in Europe and the US, then lockdown works. If we are still having one month from now thousands of new cases in each country, then it doesn't work.
> 
> I don't know why you are against something as reasonable as trying a new approach if the current one is not working. What I can tell you for sure, and I don't need any study to predict that, is that the lockdown approach either it's clear that is working the Wuhan way in the next few weeks, or it will shelved. Simply, there is no way to get this running month after month after month.


There has been a slowdown in Spain with regards to deaths and infections though, has there? I know from my sister in Madrid that you're all doing great adhering to the lockdown, but I agree with your general thrust, which is to ask where new cases are coming from, if everyone is locked up indoors. I ask the same thing here in Ireland. We've had 2 weeks of quarantine and 2 weeks before that of restrictions, and yet we still have new cases. I have imagine that maybe the 14 days incubation scenario isn't exact, and that also the virus was still spreading during the first period of restrictions. But things have slowed down here too, and our government have decided to keep us locked up until the 5th May,

Now, I don't necessarily agree with this, and I think that if only .001% of the population is infected, and you can add zeroes after the decimal point to account for deaths, then we're definitely in for a worse outbreak in Autumn, but without the financial resources to handle it. I don't trust our government for a lot of reasons (not only to do with the fact that we had a recent general election that hasn't resulted in the change people voted for, so the previous PM - who came third in a two horse race - is still making decisions without referring them to cabinet), but definitely I don't trust them to be formulating any sort of sensible plan to release the population and keep the economy alive.

Without an economy, there's no health service. Without a health service, well, you know the rest. I realise there's a catch-22 of sorts here, and I'm certainly not criticising the current lockdown, because it's essential the hospitals can function, but I think your question is valid.

By the way, I don't trust any figures from China, and I hope that when the virus is history, China is treated the way it should be - as a backward pariah state, untouchable, and kept in a cage...


----------



## elgar's ghost

I imagine the UK will follow the Republic of Ireland - no real change for another three weeks and then there will be another review. A government announcement is due this week but apart from possibly some minor changes - which could go either way - I expect it will be more of the same. Lockdown may muzzle the dog but it will never remove its teeth - either the virus will somehow burn itself out or a vaccine has to be found, and right now either possibility seems as out of reach as ever.


----------



## Sad Al

I think the virus is going to do its job. It will mutate and kill billions. I like it


----------



## Jacck

Sad Al said:


> I think the virus is going to do its job. It will mutate and kill billions. I like it


it infects the brain also, so it will likely mutate and then create an army of zombies. Resident Evil: Apocalypse


----------



## Rogerx

Video of mousetraps and ping-pong balls explains why social distancing works.


----------



## Kieran

Sad Al said:


> I think the virus is going to do its job. It will mutate and kill billions. I like it


Perhaps you'll catch the virus, struggle to breathe in excruciating agony, and graduate from liking it, to loving it?


----------



## Sad Al

Kieran said:


> Perhaps you'll catch the virus, struggle to breathe in excruciating agony, and graduate from liking it, to loving it?


No pain, no gain. Everyone has to die of something. We are way too many, almost 8 billions. We are here:


----------



## erki

Sad Al said:


> I think the virus is going to do its job. It will mutate and kill billions. I like it


So far it seems not to happen. Maybe next time. Although we get smarter and the advantage of surprise wouldn't be there any more. So today it is a training in a way and great social experiment to find out what happens when market economy shuts down.


----------



## Kieran

Sad Al said:


> No pain, no gain. Everyone has to die of something. We are way too many, almost 8 billions. We are here:


Your kind of thinking is as bad a sickness as the virus, unfortunately. We've seen from history what happens when we tend towards thinking people should be profitably culled. There's a world of difference between suggesting we're overpopulated and wondering what to do - and taking satisfaction from the miserable deaths of (according to you) "billions"...


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> The CDC says about *80,000 people died of influenza last year* in the US. About 60,000 are due to die of Covid-19 this year, while flu deaths are down quite a bit due to social distancing.
> 
> I have to wonder whether this situation is worth cratering the US economy and further increasing debt to a level that our unfortunate progeny can never hope to repay.


But many more people had influenza than have gotten this virus.

About *1 in 1000* people who test positive for influenza die.

*1 in about 25* people who test positive for this thing are dying.

If we let this virus become as common as influenza, well, do the math.


----------



## Open Book

schigolch said:


> The recession is unavoidable.
> 
> What we are discussing here is between a recession and the mother of all recessions.
> 
> Arguably, this is the place where we are all heading now. Is the right way to handle the situation?. Open to discussion. As said before, I think that we need to see if the lockdowns finally work, or not. So far, outside of China, we don't have proof. There is indeed a slower rate of infections and deaths in Italy and Spain, but still thousands of new daily cases and hundreds of daily deaths. More than one month into the lockdown.
> 
> As I hope is clear to everyone that we can't just extend the lockdowns indefinitely, we need to get an exit in case it's not working after all. Or face insurrections, famine,... Lockdowns are not only affecting wealthy middle class people, that can afford it.
> 
> Isolating the elder, and starting to go ahead with as much of our lives as possible, until a cure is found, could be a solution if lockdowns are not working.


If you could quarantine every single person in a closed area for a month or so, you know the virus would disappear.

If the lockdowns aren't working it's because they are not strict enough or people aren't complying with them. There are always going to be essential workers you can't lock down, but they are relatively few.


----------



## Open Book

schigolch said:


> To me, this is still to be proved. Again, we have thousands of daily new cases, and hundreds of new deaths.
> 
> After more than one month into the lockdown, where are the new cases coming from?.
> 
> Work means to get a situation like the one there is in Wuhan, now. If this happens in Europe and the US, then lockdown works. If we are still having one month from now thousands of new cases in each country, then it doesn't work.
> 
> I don't know why you are against something as reasonable as trying a new approach if the current one is not working. What I can tell you for sure, and I don't need any study to predict that, is that the lockdown approach either it's clear that is working the Wuhan way in the next few weeks, or it will shelved. Simply, there is no way to get this running month after month after month.


Because the lockdowns aren't perfect. They can't be. There have to always be some essential people working, so these people are out amongst other people. Even if they try to stay physically distant they can't do this perfectly.

So lockdowns take time. Some of us are too impatient.


----------



## eljr

Tikoo Tuba said:


> Our county votes Republican . Zero reported cases of Covid here and in adjacent counties also . When we hear that its symptoms are flu-like , seems ok to call it the flu . We do not inflict reality on others , and nobody much comes visiting . Personally , I do not vote and do a lot of solo travelling but do not stop in cities . Friends have no social distancing practice here . Those who do that are tolerated . Those who wear masks can be ambushed with a marker pen . They get a smiley face so as not to be confused with an Alien Grey .


sounds like a truly godawful place


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> If you could quarantine every single person in a closed area for a month or so, you know the virus would disappear.
> 
> If the lockdowns aren't working it's because they are not strict enough or people aren't complying with them. There are always going to be essential workers you can't lock down, but they are relatively few.


my hillbilly neighbors, on both sides, had the full family get together yesterday

no respect for science, authority or their fellow citizens

deplorables indeed


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> we have managed to reduce the R0 to about 1.1
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_..._the_Czech_Republic#Basic_reproduction_number
> so the lockdowns work.


you post this as if you expect the yahoos to understand it

good luck with that


----------



## Luchesi

Open Book said:


> Because the lockdowns aren't perfect. They can't be. There have to always be some essential people working, so these people are out amongst other people. Even if they try to stay physically distant they can't do this perfectly.
> 
> So lockdowns take time. Some of us are too impatient.


These masks give people a false sense of security. They Slow down the virus but they stay in the mask so you can't use the mask a long time for that reason.

Bacteria are giants when compared to viruses. The smallest bacteria are about 0.4 micron (one millionth of a meter) in diameter while viruses range in size from 0.02 to 0.25 micron. This makes most viruses submicroscopic, unable to seen in an ordinary light microscope.


----------



## Flamme

geralmar said:


> I remain skeptical.


Covidona virus killed at least 2 catz...Not a dawg in sight!


----------



## Sad Al

Kieran said:


> Your kind of thinking is as bad a sickness as the virus, unfortunately. We've seen from history what happens when we tend towards thinking people should be profitably culled. There's a world of difference between suggesting we're overpopulated and wondering what to do - and taking satisfaction from the miserable deaths of (according to you) "billions"...


But at least eight billions of miserable deaths by 2060 are already locked in. I agree with Dr Alpert (skil.org), from Stanford, who says we should introduce birth lottery. If we were smart enough to do that, by 2100 the world population would be 50 million happy humans. Everyone would live either in northwestern US, Uruguay, or in China. No one would live in Europe, Russia, Africa or India.

Yes, we've seen from history many things, but after decades of exponential growth (after WW2 it has been overkill), it has to stop one day. The Wile E.Coyote moment has to come. The birth lottery would REALLY flatten the curve, we would walk the talk. Of course we won't do that. We've absolutely had it

https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-303-jack-albert-unwinding-human-predicament/


----------



## Flamme

:lol: Maybe u r onto something 'ere buddy.


----------



## Kieran

Sad Al said:


> But at least eight billions of miserable deaths by 2060 are already locked in. I agree with Dr Alpert (skil.org), from Stanford, who says we should introduce birth lottery. If we were smart enough to do that, by 2100 the world population would be 50 million happy humans. Everyone would live either in northwestern US, Uruguay, or in China. No one would live in Europe, Russia, Africa or India.
> 
> https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-303-jack-albert-unwinding-human-predicament/


There's a difference between trying to find solutions for what we may call overpopulation (no matter how problematical the solutions may be) and being satisfied with the suffering of billions. In fact, neither activities are even remotely related. I read about this lottery. I won't drag the thread off topic to discuss its flaws...


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> you post this as if you expect the yahoos to understand it
> 
> good luck with that


What's a yahoo?


----------



## EdwardBast

Kieran said:


> What's a yahoo?


In the US that would be a loud, ignorant, anti-intellectual, scientifically illiterate, future bootlicker for fascists who's utterly devoid of self-awareness.  Did I get that right eljr?


----------



## Kieran

EdwardBast said:


> In the US that would be a loud, ignorant, anti-intellectual, scientifically illiterate, future bootlicker for fascists who's entirely unaware he's a loud, ignorant, anti-intellectual, scientifically illiterate, future bootlicker for fascists.


It's curious that the poster of that word would expect to find them here, isn't it...


----------



## Sad Al

Kieran said:


> There's a difference between trying to find solutions for what we may call overpopulation (no matter how problematical the solutions may be) and being satisfied with the suffering of billions. In fact, neither activities are even remotely related. I read about this lottery. I won't drag the thread off topic to discuss its flaws...


OK. Why don't you start a new thread to discuss its flaws?


----------



## Kieran

Sad Al said:


> OK. Why don't you start a new thread to discuss its flaws?


Nope. No interest....


----------



## aleazk

Kieran said:


> What's a yahoo?


The term comes from Gulliver's Travels: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahoo_(Gulliver's_Travels)


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

eljr said:


> sounds like a truly godawful place


Iowa ? I don't mind if you are socially distant , but I consider the condition obsessive and
approaching unconsciousness . A.I. will be your master .


----------



## Sad Al

Kieran said:


> Nope. No interest....


Buahahaha, sounds like you can't do it


----------



## DaveM

Sad Al said:


> Buahahaha, sounds like you can't do it


Or, more likely, his frontal lobe is operating normally.


----------



## Kieran

aleazk said:


> The term comes from Gulliver's Travels: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahoo_(Gulliver's_Travels)


Thanks aleazk, I thought I'd remembered it from some place. A yahoo sounds like the kind of person who believes they become more educated by using Google...


----------



## aleazk

KenOC said:


> The CDC says about *80,000 people died of influenza last year* in the US. About 60,000 are due to die of Covid-19 this year, while flu deaths are down quite a bit due to social distancing.
> 
> I have to wonder whether this situation is worth cratering the US economy and further increasing debt to a level that our unfortunate progeny can never hope to repay.


I think the main problem with this virus is that neither its mortality or transmission rates are very extraordinary when taken separately, but when you combine those numbers into a single entity, you get a remarkable virus. Yes, it's unlikely (though not impossible) that any of us here will become seriously ill or even die from it, but its relatively easiness for spread (being semi-airbone) and its relatively dangerous rate of making you very ill makes it very problematic. But again, the absolute numbers are not really that high, it's the combination of those in a single virus. I think that's one of the reasons (of course, not the only one) why the West had a slow reaction at first until more precise data showed what I mentioned.


----------



## arpeggio

I really do not have the time to read every post so I do not know how others are doing.

My wife and I are in our early 70's . We have hunkered down and only go out if we have to.

Just learned that a friend just succumbed to the virus. He was about our age and in good health. Apparently not good enough.


----------



## Bwv 1080

Try to find a bad flu season to compare to COVID-19 in this weekly and monthly data, the only thing that comes close is 9-11

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html


----------



## Sad Al

DaveM said:


> Or, more likely, his frontal lobe is operating normally.


I agree. My posts are a bit strange because long time ago I sniffed a huge bottle of solvent (thinner), which made me stupid and lead to heart tacychardia, then I was in a bad car crash because I forgot to... what is the word in English, watch around if you're behind that triangular sign? I wasn't even wearing a seat belt. I just drove forward towards where I was going. Before that crash I lost control of an Opel that ended up on its roof. I can still hear the sound in my ears, it makes a lot of noise when a car roof collapses.

Thanks to all these seven billion normal frontal lobes, that unlike mine, operate like the Norman Bates brain, the planet is in ruins.


----------



## pianozach

eljr said:


> you post this as if you expect the yahoos to understand it
> 
> good luck with that





Kieran said:


> What's a yahoo?





EdwardBast said:


> In the US that would be a loud, ignorant, anti-intellectual, scientifically illiterate, future bootlicker for fascists who's utterly devoid of self-awareness.  Did I get that right eljr?





Kieran said:


> It's curious that the poster of that word would expect to find them here, isn't it...





aleazk said:


> The term comes from Gulliver's Travels: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahoo_(Gulliver's_Travels)





Kieran said:


> Thanks aleazk, I thought I'd remembered it from some place. A yahoo sounds like the kind of person who believes they become more educated by using Google...


EdwardBast basically has it right, although the word has morphed a bit since then, although most still include "ignorant" as part of the meaning:

An ignorant rural person
An uncouth lout
An uneducated person with a backwoods mentality
anyone who is uncultured, ignorant, or stupid...of lower intelligence than yourself
A rube
A yokel
A country bumpkin


----------



## elgar's ghost

Could have just said s***kicker, then?


----------



## Kieran

pianozach said:


> An ignorant rural person
> An uncouth lout
> An uneducated person with a backwoods mentality
> anyone who is uncultured, ignorant, or stupid...of lower intelligence than yourself
> A rube
> A yokel
> A country bumpkin


Isn't this the most wonderful panoply of terms to use against our fellow posters? Surely only a snob would use these terms? "A person of lower intelligence than yourself." 

How have we measured this? 

"An ignorant rural person" - unquestionably more savagely iggerunt than them iggerunt urban geezers! :lol:

I'll have to sleep with the light on tonight, I wouldn't recognise a "rube" otherwise... :lol:


----------



## DaveM

Sad Al said:


> I agree. My posts are a bit strange because long time ago I sniffed a huge bottle of solvent (thinner), which made me stupid and lead to heart tacychardia, then I was in a bad car crash because I forgot to... what is the word in English, watch around if you're behind that triangular sign? I wasn't even wearing a seat belt. I just drove forward towards where I was going. Before that crash I lost control of an Opel that ended up on its roof. I can still hear the sound in my ears, it makes a lot of noise when a car roof collapses.
> 
> Thanks to all these seven billion normal frontal lobes, that unlike mine, operate like the Norman Bates brain, the planet is in ruins.


I agree. You're not so much a Norman Bates; more like a Jim Jones.


----------



## Kieran

arpeggio said:


> I really do not have the time to read every post so I do not know how others are doing.
> 
> My wife and I are in our early 70's . We have hunkered down and only go out if we have to.
> 
> Just learned that a friend just succumbed to the virus. He was about our age and in good health. Apparently not good enough.


Sorry to hear about your friend. Do yourself and your wife live in a big town? I live in the country, so shopping isn't the same, there are fewer people queuing, fewer people everywhere, and more space for exercise, so I count myself fortunate, in this respect...


----------



## arpeggio

Kieran said:


> Sorry to hear about your friend. Do yourself and your wife live in a big town?


Yes. Burke, Virginia is in Fairfax county, a suburb of Washington, DC.

The irony of my friend is that his wife, who is in poor health, caught the virus and survived.


----------



## EdwardBast

Kieran said:


> Isn't this the most wonderful panoply of terms to use against our fellow posters? Surely only a snob would use these terms? "A person of lower intelligence than yourself."
> 
> How have we measured this?
> 
> "An ignorant rural person" - unquestionably more savagely iggerunt than them iggerunt urban geezers! :lol:
> 
> I'll have to sleep with the light on tonight, I wouldn't recognise a "rube" otherwise... :lol:


I hope you noticed that my (semi-facetious) definition did not disparage rural people or impugn anyone's intelligence.


----------



## Open Book

arpeggio said:


> Yes. Burke, Virginia is in Fairfax county, a suburb of Washington, DC.
> 
> The irony of my friend is that his wife, who is in poor health, caught the virus and survived.


There's no way to know for sure who will survive it and who won't so some of us should stop feeling complacent just because the statistics might favor them due to youth, good health, proper diet, etc.

Sorry to hear about your friend.


----------



## Kieran

EdwardBast said:


> I hope you noticed that my (semi-facetious) definition did not disparage rural people or impugn anyone's intelligence.


Hey, don't tell me, I'm not the one being insulted - I'm sure the hillbillies and farmhands are googling a few of them big words there to see they're in the clear...


----------



## Kieran

arpeggio said:


> Yes. Burke, Virginia is in Fairfax county, a suburb of Washington, DC.
> 
> The irony of my friend is that his wife, who is in poor health, caught the virus and survived.


I hope your friends wife is coping, it must be brutal for her. Keep well!


----------



## KenOC

Covid-19 has done good things for the air quality in SoCal. Here's a view from the pier at Seal Beach.


----------



## Open Book

More plastic being used, though. Not allowed to bring your own reusable bags to the supermarket. Whole Foods half fills the bags when they deliver and cold stuff comes in these huge puffy plastic padded mailing envelopes. Wasteful, but necessary.


----------



## Jacck

Italy gave China PPE to help with coronavirus - then China made them buy it back
https://spectator.us/italy-china-ppe-sold-coronavirus/


----------



## senza sordino

Tim Brooke Taylor died yesterday, Sunday, of coronavirus
















I grew up watching the Goodies, I saw it in England and it was on CBC here. When you're eight years old, a giant kitten knocking over the post office tower is the most hysterical thing you've ever seen.


----------



## senza sordino

I've been plotting the data on Excel for the past month. Not because I know what I'm doing, but mostly to learn. It's been an interesting exercise. I get my data from worldometers. Initially the data followed an exponential and even cubic relation. In mid-March I predicted 12 days out when the world would see one million cases as the data followed a cubic relation. The number of cases now doesn't follow the cubic relation very well anymore. For the past week it's been nearly linear. The number of world wide cases is increasing but not at the rate it was in March. I'm not going to share my data, I'm no expert and I'm certainly not an epidemiologist. I've learned a lot about this epidemic.

I recognize that Excel isn't the best way to model and predict. That's a limitation of Excel and why I won't share my results. But I can say that the rate of increase is less than it was.


I was never a fastidious hand washer, I am now. And in the future I will continue to be.


I have a colleague who never takes sick days, but he continues to work. He figures that he isn't feeling that bad, "I can do my job while a little under the weather." But he could give the virus to someone else who might get really sick. Seasonal flu and colds can be like this. Though in my profession if we wake up and don't feel well, it's difficult to call in sick and request a substitute teacher because it's already too late for them to get there in time. You have to know and plan in advance when you're going to get sick. That's a challenge. Perhaps in the future we can all reconsider whether going into work when sick. And employers will hopefully be more considerate (of that I'm not so hopeful)


I went to the supermarket this morning and got almost everything I needed. They even had some flour, I took one of the last bags. 


When I went for a cycle two days ago, someone cycling in front of me gobbed to the side. He spat off to the side. I didn't feel any spray from his gob, but it was disgusting. And in today's world I had hoped people would not gob on the street, especially while cycling as the spray travels further than two meters.


----------



## elgar's ghost

senza sordino said:


> Tim Brooke Taylor died yesterday, Sunday, of coronavirus
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I grew up watching the Goodies, I saw it in England and it was on CBC here. When you're eight years old, a giant kitten knocking over the post office tower is the most hysterical thing you've ever seen.


Yes, the giant kitten is the episode I remember most. :lol:


----------



## mrdoc

Sad Al said:


> No pain, no gain. Everyone has to die of something. We are way too many, almost 8 billions. We are here:


I think when I go I would like to be shot by a jealous husband when I am 104.


----------



## Bigbang

Sad Al said:


> But at least eight billions of miserable deaths by 2060 are already locked in. I agree with Dr Alpert (skil.org), from Stanford, who says we should introduce birth lottery. If we were smart enough to do that, by 2100 the world population would be 50 million happy humans. Everyone would live either in northwestern US, Uruguay, or in China. No one would live in Europe, Russia, Africa or India.
> 
> Yes, we've seen from history many things, but after decades of exponential growth (after WW2 it has been overkill), it has to stop one day. The Wile E.Coyote moment has to come. The birth lottery would REALLY flatten the curve, we would walk the talk. Of course we won't do that. We've absolutely had it
> 
> https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-303-jack-albert-unwinding-human-predicament/


I am not even going to bother responding to this as virus in its current state it will be highly unlikely to impact populations. Actually it may do the opposite: Corona boomers to the rescue. They will the saviors of humankind/sentient life on earth, born to be the light of the world. They will throw off the dictators, tyrants, and all the like of those who oppress. Instead of decreasing populations, suddenly a worldwide boom of babies being born, all due to the quarantine. Imagine all the corona boomers in 20 plus years...such power they will have to shape the world we live in.

That's right folks, you heard it here first....spread the word...they are coming.....don't believe a mozart hater.


----------



## KenOC

The virus is on the decline in many places. In the US, the peak (in deaths per day) was supposedly hit today. In my state, California, the peak is forecast to occur in 6 days, on the 19th (*IHME projections*).

California looks like it will be surpassingly lucky, with a final toll of about 1,500 deaths, while New York may have 14,500 deaths, even though its population is somewhat less.

Groups of governors on each coast are coordinating plans for "reopening" their economies, even as Trump claims he is the "supreme authority" in such matters. I guess we'll see if that dog can hunt!


----------



## Red Terror

A few million are now dead throughout the world. I'd say COVID-19 is quite serious, though not as serious as the Black Plague. We'll get through this yet, gents.


----------



## Red Terror

KenOC said:


> Covid-19 has done good things for the air quality in SoCal. Here's a view from the pier at Seal Beach.


You know what the problem is? There are too many ****¡ng cars! The US has absolutely no good excuse for its INADEQUATE public transportation system. The automobile industry has far too much power.


----------



## Ariasexta

Sad Al said:


> But at least eight billions of miserable deaths by 2060 are already locked in. I agree with Dr Alpert (skil.org), from Stanford, who says we should introduce birth lottery. If we were smart enough to do that, by 2100 the world population would be 50 million happy humans. Everyone would live either in northwestern US, Uruguay, or in China. No one would live in Europe, Russia, Africa or India.
> 
> Yes, we've seen from history many things, but after decades of exponential growth (after WW2 it has been overkill), it has to stop one day. The Wile E.Coyote moment has to come. The birth lottery would REALLY flatten the curve, we would walk the talk. Of course we won't do that. We've absolutely had it
> 
> https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-303-jack-albert-unwinding-human-predicament/


The number of population is not the central problem, myself enjoy todays population, so much bustling so many intense competitions, it is so fun, the corona thing would never really cut any population but it surely crimps some filthy wealth of dirty parasites.:lol: No point for so many shows of compassion or doomsday thing. This is fake I would like to say, communist complexes, this is just mother nature wants to clean up the filthy filthy dumpsters.

The problem is that humanity has gotten many cancerious parasites, while someone tries to cure it be she nature or someone from heroic human beings, they will be taken as pure disaster or radicals. So I mean, no big deal, I would be hypocritical to say I feel no ecstasy once for it at all but it is really no big deal. Calm down and lets enjoy some music now :tiphat:


----------



## erki

Ariasexta said:


> but it is really no big deal


I start to feel this way too. I have been kind of excited about the possibilities to make some needed change in our ways with this unheard of global lockdown. But it is not going to happen. Some not too significant shifts in positions of power maybe - maybe not even that.
As an individual one feels powerless to change the world so some kind of natural disaster may be welcomed as an opportunity to start doing things different. War is not as good - it is human(psychopath) cause, inherently unfair and evil - leaves too much hate behind. Nature never is.


----------



## Flamme

4 mo chara Kieran




:cheers:


----------



## erki

Flamme said:


> 4 mo chara Kieran


Bloody hell, LOCKDOWN is a new religion in Ireland!


----------



## Flamme

LOL the Notorious is Very serious here.


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> 4 mo chara Kieran
> 
> 
> 
> 
> :cheers:


:lol:

Thanks for that, buddy! Conor is a typical example of how we Irish are little uneasy about success. A definition of Irishness is, "you're ambivalent about U2, aren't ye?" Irish people have a strange relationship with the ones who popped out of the little island box and strode grandly on the Big World Stage. So on one hand we have the people who'd say, "ah stop it, you're always knocking your own!" and lined up against them are the others who are mortified by these huge pretensions, and say, "aw jayzuz would ya look at the state of your man."

I fall in the middle somewhere. Conor is a vulgar pig, but I admire his swagger at least. And U2 I can easy live with, early morning listens to It's a Beautiful Day get me motivated while I'm stirring my podge...


----------



## elgar's ghost

Kieran said:


> :lol: _Conor is a vulgar pig_, but I admire his swagger at least.


You meant yahoo?


----------



## Kieran

elgars ghost said:


> You meant yahoo?


:lol: He's a _*rube*_!


----------



## Flamme

Kieran said:


> What's a yahoo?


Book of lies


> GOLD BRICKS
> Teach us Your secret, Master! yap my Yahoos.
> Then for the hardness of their hearts, and for the
> softness of their heads, I taught them Magick.
> But...alas!
> Teach us Your real secret, Master! how to become
> invisible, how to acquire love, and oh! beyond all,
> how to make gold.
> But how much gold will you give me for the Secret
> of Infinite Riches?
> Then said the foremost and most foolish; Master, it
> is nothing; but here is an hundred thousand
> pounds.
> This did I deign to accept, and whispered in his ear
> this secret:
> A SUCKER IS BORN EVERY MINUTE.


:devil:


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> Book of lies
> :devil:


The wonderful world of the worldwide web - I never heard of Aleister Crowley, and now I can see my morning shrink and day be lost reading about him...................


----------



## Ariasexta

erki said:


> I start to feel this way too. I have been kind of excited about the possibilities to make some needed change in our ways with this unheard of global lockdown. But it is not going to happen. Some not too significant shifts in positions of power maybe - maybe not even that.
> As an individual one feels powerless to change the world so some kind of natural disaster may be welcomed as an opportunity to start doing things different. War is not as good - it is human(psychopath) cause, inherently unfair and evil - leaves too much hate behind. Nature never is.


I hesitated to state my undertone in politics but you stated it. Yes, the really problem is the human evil and it always has been incurable as much as HIV and cancer. So many pandemics since written history, human population still keeps strong, with wars and all sort of disasters taking away many brilliant minds which left little to no offsprings, humanity still thrives and corrupts untill today. Reading the history, pandemics had been almost a temporary relief to human disasters. But I am not saying the dead deserved, rather the fact is that I am not much far away or much better myself. Well, I am aware that I am almost demi-god perspective here, but this is just some hard fact people used to evade.

The Corona, is the Memento Mori for everybody today.


----------



## TxllxT

Bad news for the developers of a vaccin against SARS-Co-2: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3079678/coronavirus-mutation-threatens-race-develop-vaccine In India the virus has mutated significantly, so that the present quest for a vaccin may prove to be futile.

https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=287862


----------



## Flamme

Kieran said:


> The wonderful world of the worldwide web - I never heard of Aleister Crowley, and now I can see my morning shrink and day be lost reading about him...................


He waas an interesting chap, indeed, 2 say at least! He was partially irishman if Im correct...



> BLACKTHORN
> 
> The price of existence is eternal warfare.(39)
> Speaking as an Irishman, I prefer to say: The price
> of eternal warfare is existence.
> And melancholy as existence is, the price is well
> worth paying.
> Is there is a Government? then I'm agin it! To Hell
> with the bloody English!
> "O FRATER PERDURABO, how unworthy are
> these sentiments!"
> "D'ye want a clip on the jaw?"(40)


----------



## Ariasexta

I am against the decimation of human population through human agendas and means. The population is not the problem guys, do not be fooled by propagandists. They commies engineered the over-population for fighting nature, but now they feel they are stuffed enough to quit their cattles. NO.

Humanity is nothing but a natural phenomenon, we would be pretty in harmony with mother nature and ourself if parasitism is gotten rid of. I would say, the concept of overpopulation itself is fake, humanity is always full of brilliant people, but normally in modern times they are surpressed and being misled by corrupt authorities and commies which used to infest bureaucratic and financial systems. Over-population also had created much more novel ideas and values, and more potentials for development than in anytime in history. I personally see "over-population" as we see it today has more plus-es than minus-ses, because we have amassed a huge legacy of scientific and philosophical innovations. 

As we have read, the population manipulation is mostly a communist ideology, do not ever trust a commie, never. I am theist, so, I can not speak against apocalypsis if it were of higher wills. But, I am surely agansit humans playing Gods role. As to the conspiracist theory about the origin of corona, I think it would be very impossible if humans engineered it, since the corona virus only is known to have plagued the world twice, all in modernity. But nobody has the technology to engineer the Spanish Flu then, and the COVID-19 is so effective as if it has been used to human bodies, as if, it remembers 1918 outbreak. So, I would say it is probably natural. Also, pandemic will not serve any human agendas, it disrupts the "economy" thing which serves as parasites knife and fork for exploiting humanity.


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> He waas an interesting chap, indeed, 2 say at least! He was partially irishman if Im correct...


I like this blokes way with language, he's dramatic and vivid. Very song like too, actually...


----------



## Flamme

Now I hear the measures of social distancing and wearing masx...R gona stay...4...Ever? In a world already distanced and cold this will only increase the depression and apathy...
He certtainly was...Deep and philosophic/poetic but also humorous...I havent red the Book 4 several years but I always return 2 it as an old, loyal friend...


> CHINESE MUSIC
> 
> "Explain this happening!"
> "It must have a `natural' cause." \
> "It must have a `supernatural' cause." / Let
> these two asses be set to grind corn.
> May, might, must, should, probably, may be, we
> may safely assume, ought, it is hardly question-
> able, almost certainly-poor hacks! let them be
> turned out to grass!
> Proof is only possible in mathematics, and mathe-
> matics is only a matter of arbitrary conventions.
> And yet doubt is a good servant but a bad master; a
> perfect mistress, but a nagging wife.
> "White is white" is the lash of the overseer: "white
> is black" is the watchword of the slave. The Master
> takes no heed.
> The Chinese cannot help thinking that the octave has
> 5 notes.
> The more necessary anything appears to my mind,
> the more certain it is that I only assert a limitation.
> I slept with Faith, and found a corpse in my arms on
> awaking; I drank and danced all night with Doubt,
> and found her a virgin in the morning.


----------



## Open Book

senza sordino said:


> I've been plotting the data on Excel for the past month. Not because I know what I'm doing, but mostly to learn. It's been an interesting exercise. I get my data from worldometers. Initially the data followed an exponential and even cubic relation. In mid-March I predicted 12 days out when the world would see one million cases as the data followed a cubic relation. The number of cases now doesn't follow the cubic relation very well anymore. For the past week it's been nearly linear. The number of world wide cases is increasing but not at the rate it was in March. I'm not going to share my data, I'm no expert and I'm certainly not an epidemiologist. I've learned a lot about this epidemic.
> 
> I recognize that Excel isn't the best way to model and predict. That's a limitation of Excel and why I won't share my results. But I can say that the rate of increase is less than it was.


You've been plotting the day's statistics every so often here, the same bar graph I could have gotten from various news media. What you're saying about the curve flattening shows up in New York Times' bar graphs of raw data.

So what did Excel do for you that you know that the curve has been following "an exponential or even a cubic relation" and that a million cases would occur in such-and-such time? Did you use Excel's functions to smooth and analyze data? Can you share your methods even if you don't want to share your data?

Some engineers where I worked were wizards with Excel, you wouldn't know it had limitations. I was not one of them and I would be interested in learning a little more.


----------



## Room2201974

Yes, knuckledraggers watching knuckledraggers *IS* essential to the economy of the sunshine state:

https://www.upi.com/Entertainment_N...-Florida-will-continue-filming/1531586874262/


----------



## erki

Ariasexta said:


> The population is not the problem


That reminds me of Monty Phyton song "Every Sperm is Sacred". 
There is no ...ism that I admit to support. I believe when thought is institutionalised it will become a tool in some peoples hands and why should I let myself to be worked on.
Communism as a philosophy makes a lots of sense(as many other 19th century utopists) and we do practice it successfully in small scale - for instance in a family and in a community of shared interest. And please note that true communism was never tried out. What Soviet Union had was just a form of imperialism. As does China now.
I keep forgetting that much easier way to bring down the number of human population is to let women have education.


----------



## senza sordino

Open Book said:


> You've been plotting the day's statistics every so often here, the same bar graph I could have gotten from various news media. What you're saying about the curve flattening shows up in New York Times' bar graphs of raw data.
> 
> So what did Excel do for you that you know that the curve has been following "an exponential or even a cubic relation" and that a million cases would occur in such-and-such time? Did you use Excel's functions to smooth and analyze data? Can you share your methods even if you don't want to share your data?
> 
> Some engineers where I worked were wizards with Excel, you wouldn't know it had limitations. I was not one of them and I would be interested in learning a little more.


I did what any final year of high school student could do - plugged data into Excel, and chose a trend line that best matches the data. And Excel has an option to forecast data as far into the future as you want. I am no Excel wizard.

My limitation using Excel is that my trend line is one function, when in fact, perhaps the total world wide cases follows different functions for different amounts of time. Perhaps the first 30 days were exponential, then the next 30 days were cubic, and then the next were linear etc.

And I am only plotting the total number of world wide cases. All of these cases will resolve, either the person gets better or they die. I'm not plotting that resolution. And moreover, the problem is not the actual number of world wide cases, it's the number of hospitalizations and deaths. And the health authorities are looking at the total number of hospitalizations, and that trend line. That's the actual curve that needs to be flattened. It's related to the total world wide number of cases. But as you all know, the number of hospitalizations is the number we need to reduce. (Reduce the number of cases reduces the number of hospitalizations reduces the number of deaths)

The better modelers are able to model composite functions: How the number of cases affects the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths. That's beyond my pay scale.

I have learned a little bit of epidemiology and Excel during this crisis.


----------



## mountmccabe

Cases are a very limited way to look at it, since testing and reporting parameters vary worldwide, and most importantly, few countries have comprehensive testing. Confirmed cases in the US rose rapidly because we were just starting to ramp up testing, and many had already gotten sick enough that it was clear who to test first.

I agree that hospitalizations and deaths are what we should be most concerned about. Though the numbers there are also incomplete. Relevant:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1250170016504430595
BREAKING: NYC publishes, for first time, data on fatalities that includes "probable" cases (those without a confirmed test result).

It has pushed the death toll in NYC up by 57%.

Was 6,589 before this adjustment. Now stands at 10,367. This is a painful but necessary accounting.​


----------



## senza sordino

mountmccabe said:


> Cases are a very limited way to look at it, since testing and reporting parameters vary worldwide, and most importantly, few countries have comprehensive testing. Confirmed cases in the US rose rapidly because we were just starting to ramp up testing, and many had already gotten sick enough that it was clear who to test first.
> 
> I agree that hospitalizations and deaths are what we should be most concerned about. Though the numbers there are also incomplete. Relevant:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1250170016504430595
> BREAKING: NYC publishes, for first time, data on fatalities that includes "probable" cases (those without a confirmed test result).
> 
> It has pushed the death toll in NYC up by 57%.
> 
> Was 6,589 before this adjustment. Now stands at 10,367. This is a painful but necessary accounting.​


I absolutely agree, number of cases is limited. In fact, the number of deaths are not counted consistently from country to country. Some countries only count those who died in hospital and other also count those who died in care homes. And then there are cases where people died at home and were never tested. I read today that Italy sampled a few care home deaths and then extrapolated from that data.


----------



## KenOC

The *BBC* sez: US President Donald Trump has said he has instructed his administration to halt funding to the World Health Organization (WHO).

He said the WHO had "failed in its basic duty" in its response to the coronavirus outbreak. He accused the UN body of mismanaging and covering up the spread of the virus after it emerged in China, and said it must be held accountable.


----------



## Bigbang

Red Terror said:


> A few million are now dead throughout the world. I'd say COVID-19 is quite serious, though not as serious as the Black Plague. We'll get through this yet, gents.


Is this a typo? "A few million are now dead throughout the world" Where did you get this number? I am reading around 126,000 worldwide (changes every minute) and based on confirmed cases.


----------



## pianozach

Bigbang said:


> Is this a typo? "A few million are now dead throughout the world" Where did you get this number? I am reading around 126,000 worldwide (changes every minute) and based on confirmed cases.


As of 7:22 PM PDT

Coronavirus Cases:
1,998,111

Deaths:
126,604

Recovered:
478,659

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


----------



## Ariasexta

erki said:


> That reminds me of Monty Phyton song "Every Sperm is Sacred".
> There is no ...ism that I admit to support. I believe when thought is institutionalised it will become a tool in some peoples hands and why should I let myself to be worked on.
> Communism as a philosophy makes a lots of sense(as many other 19th century utopists) and we do practice it successfully in small scale - for instance in a family and in a community of shared interest. And please note that true communism was never tried out. What Soviet Union had was just a form of imperialism. As does China now.
> I keep forgetting that much easier way to bring down the number of human population is to let women have education.


Commies fostered over-population deliberately through introducing poverty and establishing communism into poorer countries, because over-population among poor people can creat inner pressure for survival which can be exploited for their gain. Charles Dickens describes such measures used by the priviledged classes in his novel "Oliver Twist". If people gradually become more informed, the large population would become a threat right? So they parasites will play the self-appointed roles of savior, god, messiah, to declare there is too many people on the planet which use too much resources, and there are global warming and chupadashanigabrajenkumskovskyleninovitchoffbumbumdashite issues that warming will bring about.

The point is not to be manipulated by communism agendas, just let people naturally develop, everything will be fine. Communism is ablout the cult for denial of God and it is very real, the equality of worker and classless society ideologies are just a bait for stupid people. In different social and historical contexts they exploit different means possible to poison peoples mind, including whatever evolutionism, alien agendas, mockery of religion, racism, pseudoscience like Global Warming and other countless lowlife crackpots.


----------



## Ariasexta

Bible says, humans must not judge humans. This is the moment of truth.

The commies whined about evil human nature, but then in their propagandas, they exalted about humans being above everything else, workers above everyone else, and soon, would denigrate each other next time and introducing alien gods, martian people and octopus creators. There is no consistency in their own rhetorics in different situations.

Only God can judge humanity as a whole, before that, we should mind our own business, and pay daily tribute to nature and God. No aliens, no octopus miracles.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Ariasexta said:


> No aliens, no octopus miracles.


Your mind is protected . Shh... just exist . Perhaps we will meet someday .


----------



## erki

> Only God can judge humanity as a whole, before that, we should mind our own business, and pay daily tribute to nature and God.


I grew up in USSR and never believed a single word of its ideology. However I found really funny(as long as I remember) how similar the propaganda was with religious. Both quote their BOOK(Bible and Lenin/Stalin) to win the argument, both try to engage children before they can develop their own views and introduce THE punishment to individuals who think different.
*But I shall not engage in religious debate.* It is the matter of what you believe and that is too personal to argue about.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

erki said:


> ...introduce THE punishment to individuals who think different.


We can abolish punishment . The arm-twisting of authoritarians , the mind-control , the Idealism of Safety - is
hurtful .


----------



## Meldo

Well I've been working remotely from my property in Germany for weeks now, situation here is pretty serious not that bad as in Spain or Italy but still worrying. So this virus is really a treat for some people just because they can't breath because of it and it happens pretty fast from first symptoms.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> What's a yahoo?


ya·hoo1
/yäˈho͞o/
nounINFORMAL
a rude, noisy, or violent person.
Similar:
barbarian
philistine
vulgarian
savage
brute
beast
boor
oaf
ruffian
thug
lout
hoodlum
hooligan
vandal
rowdy
bully boy
brawler
clod
clodhopper
tough
toughie
roughneck
bruiser
hard man
yobbo
yob
bovver boy
lager lout
chav
oik
ape
gorilla
bear
lump
radge
lummox
hoon


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> ya·hoo1
> /yäˈho͞o/
> nounINFORMAL
> a rude, noisy, or violent person.
> Similar:
> barbarian
> philistine
> vulgarian
> savage
> brute
> beast
> boor
> oaf
> ruffian
> thug
> lout
> hoodlum
> hooligan
> vandal
> rowdy
> bully boy
> brawler
> clod
> clodhopper
> tough
> toughie
> roughneck
> bruiser
> hard man
> yobbo
> yob
> bovver boy
> lager lout
> chav
> oik
> ape
> gorilla
> bear
> lump
> radge
> lummox
> hoon


Right. And you've seen them here on this thread?


----------



## eljr

aleazk said:


> I think the main problem with this virus is that neither its mortality or transmission rates are very extraordinary when taken separately, .


This is incorrect.

We have literally closed down NY to knock teh transmission rate down to that of a normal flu.

Also, you don't take into account the severity of the illness itself to those that survive.


----------



## eljr

Bwv 1080 said:


> Try to find a bad flu season to compare to COVID-19 in this weekly and monthly data, the only thing that comes close is 9-11
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html


no one who is minimizing this virus will even click on your link. People ignore info that does not support what they want to believe.


----------



## eljr

Sad Al said:


> I agree. My posts are a bit strange because long time ago I sniffed a huge bottle of solvent (thinner), which made me stupid and lead to heart tacychardia, then I was in a bad car crash because I forgot to... what is the word in English, watch around if you're behind that triangular sign? I wasn't even wearing a seat belt. I just drove forward towards where I was going. Before that crash I lost control of an Opel that ended up on its roof. I can still hear the sound in my ears, it makes a lot of noise when a car roof collapses.
> 
> Thanks to all these seven billion normal frontal lobes, that unlike mine, operate like the Norman Bates brain, the planet is in ruins.


I can identify with your tachycardia.... it sucks.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> Sorry to hear about your friend. Do yourself and your wife live in a big town? I live in the country, so shopping isn't the same, there are fewer people queuing, fewer people everywhere, and more space for exercise, so I count myself fortunate, in this respect...


No exercising here... the parks and trails are completely closed. 

Things are pretty damned bad.


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> :lol: He's a _*rube*_!


soooo many pages devoted to one common noun.

too funny!


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> soooo many pages devoted to one common noun.
> 
> too funny!


Well the use of it seemed also to be an example of it...


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> Right. And you've seen them here on this thread?


one poster sort of stands out 

here is an idea, stop with your antagonistic, arrogant, *** hole posting style.

just an idea, friend


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> Well the use of it seemed also to be an example of it...


i would so enjoy meeting you


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> i would so enjoy meeting you


I don't think you're the type of person I'd like to meet, though...


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> I don't think you're the type of person I'd like to meet, though...


Finally I get a compliment from you!


----------



## Sad Al

"Listen to the fool's reproach! It is a kingly title! - William Blake


----------



## eljr

Sad Al said:


> "Listen to the fool's reproach! It is a kingly title! - William Blake


 The eyes of fire, the nostrils of air, the mouth of water, the beard of earth. *The weak in courage is strong in cunning*."


----------



## erki

I is much peaceful here when America sleeps.


----------



## Sad Al

eljr said:


> The eyes of fire, the nostrils of air, the mouth of water, the beard of earth. *The weak in courage is strong in cunning*."


That's Teletubbies. Po (The eyes of fire), Laa-Laa (the nostrils of air i.e the Jungian smell of Holy Ghost, Dipsy (the mouth of water), Tinky Winky (the beard of earth) *The weak in courage is strong in cunning*."[/QUOTE]


----------



## eljr

Sad Al said:


> That's Teletubbies. Po (The eyes of fire), Laa-Laa (the nostrils of air i.e the Jungian smell of Holy Ghost, Dipsy (the mouth of water), Tinky Winky (the beard of earth) *The weak in courage is strong in cunning*."


[/QUOTE]

i liked the purple guy


----------



## Sad Al

The four Teletubbian cardinal points are associated with William Blake's four Zoas: the north is associated with Los/Urthona, the south with Urizen, the east with Luvah/Orc, and the west with Tharmas. That's Laa-Laa, Dipsy, Po, Tinky Winky, respectively.

That's why Batman was played by Adam West.


----------



## eljr

Sad Al said:


> The four Teletubbian cardinal points are associated with William Blake's four Zoas: the north is associated with Los/Urthona, the south with Urizen, the east with Luvah/Orc, and the west with Tharmas. That's Laa-Laa, Dipsy, Po, Tinky Winky, respectively.
> 
> That's why Batman was played by Adam West.


lol, good post

................


----------



## Sad Al

eljr said:


> lol, good post
> 
> ................


Thanks a lot although I am capable of bad posts too after a sip too many of my Finnish winter war uncuts. Alfred Schnittke said that he often felt to be divided between reason and intuition while composing. In William Blake's language, Schnittke felt to be divided between Urizen (i.e. your reason i.e your left brain hemisphere) and Urthona (your divine imagination, as Blake put it). Urthona is literally 'your tune', your internal sound of music that Urizen, the ruling god of technology and psychopathy has reduced to his pointless urizenic sound of muzak.

Urizen vs. Urthona is a metaphysical battle between your reason and your tune.


----------



## Rogerx

erki said:


> I is much peaceful here when America sleeps.


Do not believe that.........


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> The *BBC* sez: US President Donald Trump has said he has instructed his administration to halt funding to the World Health Organization (WHO).
> 
> He said the WHO had "failed in its basic duty" in its response to the coronavirus outbreak. He accused the UN body of mismanaging and covering up the spread of the virus after it emerged in China, and said it must be held accountable.


This is a portion of the WHO's statement from January 23 concerning the virus :

- all countries should be prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of 2019-nCoV infection

- Countries should place particular emphasis on reducing human infection, prevention of secondary transmission and international spread and contributing to the international response though multi-sectoral communication and collaboration and active participation in increasing knowledge on the virus and the disease, as well as advancing research

- As this is a new coronavirus, and it has been previously shown that similar coronaviruses required substantial efforts for regular information sharing and research, the global community should continue to demonstrate solidarity and cooperation, in compliance with Article 44 of the IHR (2005), in supporting each other on the identification of the source of this new virus, its full potential for human-to-human transmission, preparedness for potential importation of cases, and research for developing necessary treatment.


----------



## aleazk

eljr said:


> This is incorrect.
> 
> We have literally closed down NY to knock teh transmission rate down to that of a normal flu.
> 
> Also, you don't take into account the severity of the illness itself to those that survive.


I'm just stating statistical facts. The death rate seems to be about 1%, that is, like 10 times higher than common flu, but less than 2003 SARS. The R_0 seems to be around 2 and 3, although it can vary a lot depending in the society and the living conditions (it's not really surprising that in a crowded and international center city like NY you get what we are seeing.) Other airbone viruses can go as high as 8, but, still, it seems higher than 2003 SARS. So, I maintain what I said.

Besides, you half quoted me... here's the rest:



me said:


> ...but when you combine those numbers into a single entity, you get a remarkable virus. Yes, it's unlikely (though not impossible) that any of us here will become seriously ill or even die from it, but its relatively easiness for spread (being semi-airbone) and its relatively dangerous rate of making you very ill makes it very problematic. But again, the absolute numbers are not really that high, it's the combination of those in a single virus. I think that's one of the reasons (of course, not the only one) why the West had a slow reaction at first until more precise data showed what I mentioned.


----------



## Open Book

senza sordino said:


> I did what any final year of high school student could do - plugged data into Excel, and chose a trend line that best matches the data. And Excel has an option to forecast data as far into the future as you want. I am no Excel wizard.
> 
> My limitation using Excel is that my trend line is one function, when in fact, perhaps the total world wide cases follows different functions for different amounts of time. Perhaps the first 30 days were exponential, then the next 30 days were cubic, and then the next were linear etc.
> 
> And I am only plotting the total number of world wide cases. All of these cases will resolve, either the person gets better or they die. I'm not plotting that resolution. And moreover, the problem is not the actual number of world wide cases, it's the number of hospitalizations and deaths. And the health authorities are looking at the total number of hospitalizations, and that trend line. That's the actual curve that needs to be flattened. It's related to the total world wide number of cases. But as you all know, the number of hospitalizations is the number we need to reduce. (Reduce the number of cases reduces the number of hospitalizations reduces the number of deaths)
> 
> The better modelers are able to model composite functions: How the number of cases affects the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths. That's beyond my pay scale.
> 
> I have learned a little bit of epidemiology and Excel during this crisis.


So you can get Excel to fit any type curve to your data. Excel: find the best cubic curve to fit this data. Now find the best exponential or linear curve to fit this data

Sounds like a fun exercise. But does it tell you which curve fits the data best, so you can see how the data is actually behaving? I don't think the curve ever really gets linear, it has just flattened so much from social distancing practices that it looks more linear. That's a great thing to see.

The number of cases shouldn't affect the percentage of cases requiring hospitalization unless we run out of hospital capacity. Or the virus is mutating.

As the number of new cases gets lower, a larger percentage of all current cases are resolved, we have a clearer picture of the death rate. And it's terrible. This is not the flu.


----------



## Open Book

aleazk said:


> I'm just stating statistical facts. The death rate seems to be about 1%, that is, like 10 times higher than common flu, but less than 2003 SARS. The R_0 seems to be around 2 and 3, although it can vary a lot depending in the society and the living conditions (it's not really surprising that in a crowded and international center city like NY you get what we are seeing.) Other airbone viruses can go as high as 8, but, still, it seems higher than 2003 SARS. So, I maintain what I said.
> 
> Besides, you half quoted me... here's the rest:


Where are you getting 1% from?

I'm not buying that 1% without more evidence. That one percent is just an estimate assuming that there are all these hidden cases of people who have no symptoms and aren't being counted because they haven't been tested. We don't know for sure that there are really that many benign cases, it's just a guess. We need to do more _random_ testing to find that out and that's not anyone's priority right now.

Just taking figures from the reliable sources, e.g. from the New York Times, for New York state, there have been

TOTAL CASES
202,208
TOTAL DEATHS
10,834

10,834/202,208 = 0.053 which equals 5.3%.

Not 1%.

Flip it over
1/0.053 = 18.66

1 in 18.66 people who tested positive have died.

Yes, a relatively small number of those total cases haven't resolved yet (i.e. some people are still sick), but this figure is close enough.

The flu kills about 1 in 1000 people.

Coronavirus is much more deadly than the flu. It hasn't infected nearly as many people as the flu yet, let's keep it that way.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> Where are you getting 1% from?
> 
> I'm not buying that 1% without more evidence. That one percent is just an estimate assuming that there are all these hidden cases of people who have no symptoms and aren't being counted because they haven't been tested. We don't know for sure that there are really that many benign cases, it's just a guess. We need to do more _random_ testing to find that out and that's not anyone's priority right now.
> 
> Just taking figures from the reliable sources, e.g. from the New York Times, for New York state, there have been .


https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf
I already posted this. These are simply the best available studies and best available evidence we have. The mortality is ca 0.3%. It might be, that the German population is more healthy on average than the American population and the mortality in the US is going to be higher than that, but the 0.3% is the number that is actually backed by science. If you want to get the number of infected people in each country, than multiply the number of deaths by 300 for a rough estimate


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> So you can get Excel to fit any type curve to you data. Excel: find the best cubic curve to fit this data. Now find the best exponential or linear curve to fit this data
> 
> Sounds like a fun exercise. But does it tell you which curve fits the data best, so you can see how the data is actually behaving? I don't think the curve ever really gets linear, it has just flattened so much from social distancing practices that it looks more linear. That's a great thing to see.
> 
> The number of cases shouldn't affect the percentage of cases requiring hospitalization unless we run out of hospital capacity. Or the virus is mutating.
> 
> As the number of new cases gets lower, a larger percentage of all current cases are resolved, we have a clearer picture of the death rate. And it's terrible. This is not the flu.


3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO


----------



## Jacck

eljr said:


> 3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO


but WHO also states this 
_Importantly, in emerging viral infection outbreaks the *case-fatality ratio is often overestimated in the early stages because case detection is highly biased towards the more severe cases*. As further data on the spectrum of mild or asymptomatic infection becomes available, one case of which was documented by Chan and colleagues, the case-fatality ratio is likely to decrease._

the antibody studies from Germany, Italy and Iceland are simply a much better tool to investigate this.


----------



## aleazk

To quote the actual data, which may look relatively lower than was assumed when all this started, doesn't make you a "denier". To have correct and precise data is crucial for being able to do correct predictions

My flatmate is doing his physics Phd precisely in mathematical modeling epidemiology. He's running some quite fancy models with neural networks and he showed me some computer simulations. The results are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in the input data, to the point that, if that uncertainty is high, you can pretty much predict everything and the opposite of everything, i.e., nonsense.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/...henergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_en.pdf
> I already posted this. These are simply the best available studies and best available evidence we have. The mortality is ca 0.3%. It might be, that the German population is more healthy on average than the American population and the mortality in the US is going to be higher than that, but the 0.3% is the number that is actually backed by science. If you want to get the number of infected people in each country, than multiply the number of deaths by 300 for a rough estimate


I know you did. I just don't believe it yet. I think it's what people want to believe, and so do I, but I want to see more evidence taken over a wider population in different countries. We should err on the side of caution.

Do other viruses behave in this way, have only benign, even undetectable effects on large numbers of people while being hard or devastating on others? Is the flu like this, do we know? On what grounds are we pinning our hopes on this?

Of course 1% is bad enough. That's 10 times deadlier than the flu.


----------



## mmsbls

aleazk said:


> To quote the actual data, which may look relatively lower than was assumed when all this started, doesn't make you a "denier". To have correct and precise data is crucial for being able to do correct predictions
> 
> My flatmate is doing his physics Phd precisely in mathematical modeling epidemiology. He's running some quite fancy models with neural networks and he showed me some computer simulations. The results are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in the input data, to the point that, if that uncertainty is high, you can pretty much predict everything and the opposite of everything, i.e., nonsense.


Has he looked at modeling viruses that are much better understood such as the flu? If so, are the data for these viruses good enough to get reasonable results?


----------



## aleazk

mmsbls said:


> Has he looked at modeling viruses that are much better understood such as the flu? If so, are the data for these viruses good enough to get reasonable results?


As far as I know, the model is general, it can be applied to any epidemics. It models society as a system of material "agents" that can interact with each other according to some probability distribution. The agents have many parameters as input data, such as their velocity, frequency of contact, and so on. It's a model based on statistical mechanics rather than the usual SIR models, which date back to the 1920. He told me that the power of this model is that you can model the situation in a much more precise way thanks to the many parameters that describe the agents. I don't know much more beside this. Then he also has an involved computer code to calculate all this for hundred of thousands agents. His computer can take a whole day to run the simulation. He's looking forward to use the computer cluster at our university in order to able to model even more agents.


----------



## Jacck

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart
some interesting graphs on this site


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> I know you did. I just don't believe it yet. I think it's what people want to believe, and so do I, but I want to see more evidence taken over a wider population in different countries. We should err on the side of caution.
> 
> Do other viruses behave in this way, have only benign, even undetectable effects on large numbers of people while being hard or devastating on others? Is the flu like this, do we know? On what grounds are we pinning our hopes on this?
> 
> Of course 1% is bad enough. That's 10 times deadlier than the flu.


for me it is evidence enough. I trust the Germans.
this is also an interesting graph
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-covid-19-vs-case-fatality-rate
the CFR is highest in France, UK and Italy
When the pandemic is over (in 2 years or so), it will be interesting to read all the explanations for these discrepancies


----------



## aleazk

Open Book said:


> I know you did. I just don't believe it yet. I think it's what people want to believe, and so do I, but I want to see more evidence taken over a wider population in different countries. We should err on the side of caution.
> 
> Do other viruses behave in this way, have only benign, even undetectable effects on large numbers of people while being hard or devastating on others? Is the flu like this, do we know? On what grounds are we pinning our hopes on this?
> 
> Of course 1% is bad enough. That's 10 times deadlier than the flu.


What is true is that the death rate is significantly higher (up to 20%, I think I saw somewhere) for people aged 60+ and with previous health issues (particularly coronary, pulmonary, and diabetes.) Most of the deaths and the very ill patients that are saturating the healthcare systems around the world are from this group. And this is what we see in the news. The thing is that, for the average death rate, you must include all the groups. And, in those other groups, the case of asymptomatics is really high, it seems, and the death rate is indeed closer to that of flu. But, of course, you don't see those cases in the news since they don't go to hospitals nor even get tested. Thus, that's why it seems so unintuitive when you see the average death rate to be lower than 1% but also very disturbing news of saturated hospitals.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart
> some interesting graphs on this site


They're interesting but people can read them the wrong way.

19 deaths per million people can give people a false sense of security. From that figure it doesn't look like much damage has been done to the population. That's only because the number of cases is still relatively very small, not because the virus isn't deadly.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> They're interesting but people can read them the wrong way.
> 
> 19 deaths per million people can give people a false sense of security. From that figure it doesn't look like much damage has been done to the population. That's only because the number of cases is still relatively very small, not because the virus isn't deadly.


I didn't mean that particular graph, but rather the whole website. There are more interesting graphs there, for example this one
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-daily-deaths-epidemiological-trajectory


----------



## Open Book

aleazk said:


> What is true is that the death rate is significantly higher (up to 20%, I think I saw somewhere) for people aged 60+ and with previous health issues (particularly coronary, pulmonary, and diabetes.) Most of the deaths and the very ill patients that are saturating the healthcare systems around the world are from this group. And this is what we see in the news. The thing is that, for the average death rate, you must include all the groups. And, in those other groups, the case of asymptomatics is really high, it seems, and the death rate is indeed closer to that of flu. But, of course, you don't see those cases in the news since they don't go to hospitals nor even get tested. Thus, that's why it seems so unintuitive when you see the average death rate to be lower than 1% but also very disturbing news of saturated hospitals.


Yes, I've been reading the same things you have, and maybe more. I have read things that contradict the ones you're citing here. That supposedly asymptomatic people usually do progress to getting symptoms, but it may take days. That the % of people who get very sick does not vary as significantly by age group and health as was previously thought.

When there is contradictory news it means we don't know much of anything for sure and we should err on the side of caution until we do.


----------



## TxllxT

Schiphol Airport in Corona lockdown, flowerfields and Dutch coastline


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> Yes, I've been reading the same things you have, and maybe more. I have read things that contradict the ones you're citing here. That supposedly asymptomatic people usually do progress to getting symptoms, but it may take days. That the % of people who get very sick does not vary as significantly by age group and health as was previously thought.
> 
> When there is contradictory news it means we don't know much of anything for sure and we should err on the side of caution until we do.


Do you understand what the antibody tests measure? They identify all people, who already had the infection, even those, who did not know they had it. By means of the antibody studies, you no longer need to guess, you can actually find out how many were asymptomatic and what the true CFR is. 
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/antibody-test-explainer/index.html


----------



## Flamme

We have a lockdown from thursday until tuesday, next week, the longest 1 until now...


----------



## TxllxT

The German virology professor Hendrik Streeck doesn't believe that doorknobs of shopping carts can function as a source for Covid-19 contamination https://www.businessinsider.nl/death-rate-german-laboratory-city-5x-less-than-national-average-2020-4?international=true&r=US


----------



## Iota

TxllxT said:


> The German virology professor Hendrik Streeck doesn't believe that doorknobs of shopping carts can function as a source for Covid-19 contamination https://www.businessinsider.nl/death-rate-german-laboratory-city-5x-less-than-national-average-2020-4?international=true&r=US


It would be good news if he's right. But if the virus is able to last several days on some surfaces, I don't understand how one couldn't become infected from it.

"Streeck posited that in order to contract the virus via a surface like a doorknob, "it would be necessary that someone coughs into their hand, immediately touches a doorknob, and then straight after that another person grasps the handle and goes on to touches their face."

Why 'immediately' if the virus can last for days?


----------



## TxllxT

Iota said:


> It would be good news if he's right. But if the virus is able to last several days on some surfaces, I don't understand how one couldn't become infected from it.
> 
> "Streeck posited that in order to contract the virus via a surface like a doorknob, "it would be necessary that someone coughs into their hand, immediately touches a doorknob, and then straight after that another person grasps the handle and goes on to touches their face."
> 
> Why 'immediately' if the virus can last for days?


They conducted outdoor tests and it turned out that the virus taken from doorknobs or shopping carts just couldn't be incited anymore to become dangerous. These scientific findings contradict what other virologists maintain.


----------



## DaveM

It’s conceivable that there could be enough virus on a doorknob to turn up on testing, but not enough or not concentrated enough to infect most, if not all, people. This is easier to understand when one takes into account the astounding amount of virus spewed out by a single cough.


----------



## TxllxT

DaveM said:


> It's conceivable that there could be enough virus on a doorknob to turn up on testing, but not enough or not concentrated enough to infect most, if not all, people. This is easier to understand when one takes into account the astounding amount of virus spewed out by a single cough.


Professor Streeck does underline the 'après ski' parties in Austria and their follow-up by carnaval boozing were creating perfect conditions for the virus to spread. My brother in Rotterdam quite probably caught the virus from talking with a friend who had been with his family on skiing holiday in Tirol, Austria. When they met the friend excused himself for having got a cold. One day afterwards this friend was stricken to bed for 14 days together with his wife and 2 children. He even forgot to call my brother and warn him. (Both of them have university degrees, so one expects somehow more prudence). This real story is meant to illustrate where the real danger of Covid-19 contamination is coming from: socializing, drinking, hugging, etc. But no doorknob, or cart. Just wash your hands as a precaution.


----------



## Iota

TxllxT said:


> They conducted outdoor tests and it turned out that the virus taken from doorknobs or shopping carts just couldn't be incited anymore to become dangerous. These scientific findings contradict what other virologists maintain.


Okay, interesting. 
Information about the virus seems our main weapon against it for now. Though of course proving it is elusive and time-consuming.

And DaveM, yes I hadn't factored in quantity as a consideration. Though how much of it is required, is still a very vague concept, in my mind at least.


----------



## TxllxT

The doorknob myth reminds me of the Skripals in Salisbury, which makes me suspect that this coronavirus is too aggressive to be natural....


----------



## Room2201974

TxllxT said:


> The doorknob myth reminds me of the Skripals in Salisbury, which makes me suspect that this coronavirus is too aggressive to be natural....


The Skripals were Putin firing a shot across the bow to his enemies. That's why carrots work so well for certain U.S. Senators.


----------



## Joe B

I have not read ever page of this thread. I watched this earlier today and found it very interesting.
Bill Gates speaking on a TED Talks about "The next outbreak?" (from 2015):

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en

edit: If it's already been posted, please ignore.


----------



## KenOC

(*Bloomberg*) -- Hydroxychloroquine, the 65-year-old malaria drug that President Donald Trump has praised, appeared not to help patients get rid of the pathogen in a small study.

The pill didn't help patients clear the virus better than standard care and was much more likely to cause side effects, according to a study of 150 hospitalized patients by doctors at 16 centers in China. The research, which hasn't been peer-reviewed, was released Tuesday.

The drug did help alleviate some clinical symptoms of Covid-19, however, and the patients who took it showed a greater drop in C-reactive protein, a measure of inflammation.


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> Do you understand what the antibody tests measure? They identify all people, who already had the infection, even those, who did not know they had it. By means of the antibody studies, you no longer need to guess, you can actually find out how many were asymptomatic and what the true CFR is.


Yeah, but that's not gonna happen. People no longer trust their governments to NOT use personal information (like DNA) in an innocuous manner.

The government has already been pressing private companies that collect DNA samples (like Ancestry dot com) to hand over the information.


----------



## Radames

KenOC said:


> (*Bloomberg*) -- Hydroxychloroquine, the 65-year-old malaria drug that President Donald Trump has praised, appeared not to help patients get rid of the pathogen in a small study.
> 
> The pill didn't help patients clear the virus better than standard care and was much more likely to cause side effects, according to a study of 150 hospitalized patients by doctors at 16 centers in China. The research, which hasn't been peer-reviewed, was released Tuesday.
> 
> The drug did help alleviate some clinical symptoms of Covid-19, however, and the patients who took it showed a greater drop in C-reactive protein, a measure of inflammation.


There are much larger studies ongoing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coro...arp-speed.html

US clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine hit 'warp speed,' could show in weeks whether it works on coronavirus


----------



## Open Book

Anyone know why you can't reuse one of those medical masks as long as you leave it for a week? Any virus on the outside should have disintegrated by then.

It's almost impossible to find any new masks to buy so reuse is tempting.

I tried wearing a buff like hikers wear, but it doesn't stay over my nose and mouth, it slips down. I'd be touching my face trying to adjust it.


----------



## KenOC

Here in California, we feel fortunate to be skating through rather well compared with our counterpart state on the East Cost, New York. Here's a *BBC article* speculating on why the two states are having such different experiences. Could it be our love affair with the automobile?


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Yeah, but that's not gonna happen. People no longer trust their governments to NOT use personal information (like DNA) in an innocuous manner.
> 
> The government has already been pressing private companies that collect DNA samples (like Ancestry dot com) to hand over the information.


Antibody tests have nothing to do with DNA.


----------



## Jacck

Joe B said:


> I have not read ever page of this thread. I watched this earlier today and found it very interesting.
> Bill Gates speaking on a TED Talks about "The next outbreak?" (from 2015):
> 
> https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en
> 
> edit: If it's already been posted, please ignore.


Bill Gates has lots of experience, he has been fighting viruses since at least Windows 95


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> Bill Gates has lots of experience, he has been fighting viruses since at least Windows 95


Experience not to be sneezed at (so to speak!) Actually, he has been giving big bucks in Africa (his own and Warren Buffet's) for some time and seems to have become quite well-educated in diseases.


----------



## Open Book

Baron Scarpia said:


> Antibody tests have nothing to do with DNA.


I think when he read "[The antibody tests] identify all people, who already had the infection" he thought it meant they identify the individual by their DNA.


----------



## Jacck

US military chief: 'Weight of evidence' that Covid-19 did not originate in a lab
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/covid-19-origin-lab-general-mark-milley#maincontent
if even Milley says it, then it is true.

He has long been my favorite general


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Here in California, we feel fortunate to be skating through rather well compared with our counterpart state on the East Cost, New York. Here's a *BBC article* speculating on why the two states are having such different experiences. Could it be our love affair with the automobile?


New York State's population is condensed in a small packed urban area, New York City. You can't hit the sidewalk without bumping into someone. It's density is so high that many people don't even own cars, as parking and storage space is at a premium, and traffic is awful.

NYC is built vertically, and on the whole the buildings are old and drafty (I'm just stereotyping here, BTW). But a large number of people are packed into a very small area.

California has several urban areas, L.A., San Diego, San Francisco, Sacramento; after that there is what they refer to as 'urban sprawl' . . . suburbs that spread out widely from these areas. To travel almost necessitates a car. Even so, traffic can be awful.

.



Open Book said:


> I think when he read "[The antibody tests] identify all people, who already had the infection" he thought it meant they identify the individual by their DNA.


If I can be suspicious of "testing everybody", then you can bet there are going to be those that will turn mass testing into some sort of foil hat conspiracy theory.


----------



## mountmccabe

Radames said:


> There are much larger studies ongoing.
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coro...arp-speed.html
> 
> US clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine hit 'warp speed,' could show in weeks whether it works on coronavirus


It's worth noting that the French study that people initially jumped at showed good results because they only reported results from the people that remained at the institution where the study was being conducted. They started with 42 people, but six left the study for various reasons, including three that had to go to the ICU for further care and one that died. Those four people were all part of the treatment group, that is they were given HCQ.

So 15% of the treatment group eventually ended up in the ICU or dead, compared to 0% of the control group.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/hydroxychloroquine-trump-coronavirus-drug


----------



## Open Book

Among all the case counts and death counts why is it so hard to find a count of active cases in the world and by country and state?
If we could watch how the number of people who are still sick (unresolved cases) changes every day, it would tell us a lot. Once it's steadily decreasing the virus is losing.


----------



## DaveM

I continue to be really irritated by the misinformation about hydroxychloroquine and tests using it. I don’t have a horse in this race. If HCQ doesn’t turn out to be beneficial then so be it, but at least people reporting on it should be accurate, honest and have some sort of educated perspective. In one of the latest reports of a small study, the heading of the article is to the effect that HCQ Shows No Benefit. It also mentions that the HCQ arm had 30% adverse events vs. 8.8% in the control arm.

What was ignored was the fact that the doses used were almost twice as high as the original small French study and are high enough to cause a higher incidence of side effects. Also, while the HCQ didn’t clear measurable virus any faster than the control, the HCQ arm showed a significant reduction of symptom severity. That’s sounds like a benefit to me.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> ...What was ignored was the fact that the doses used were almost twice as high as the original small French study and are high enough to cause a higher incidence of side effects. Also, while the HCQ didn't clear measurable virus any faster than the control, the HCQ arm showed a significant reduction of symptom severity. That's sounds like a benefit to me.


Also, as stated in the article, the side effects were mostly minor, primarily diarrhea.


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> I continue to be really irritated by the misinformation about hydroxychloroquine and tests using it. I don't have a horse in this race. If HCQ doesn't turn out to be beneficial then so be it, but at least people reporting on it should be accurate, honest and have some sort of educated perspective. In one of the latest reports of a small study, the heading of the article is to the effect that HCQ Shows No Benefit. It also mentions that the HCQ arm had 30% adverse events vs. 8.8% in the control arm.
> 
> What was ignored was the fact that the doses used were almost twice as high as the original small French study and are high enough to cause a higher incidence of side effects. Also, while the HCQ didn't clear measurable virus any faster than the control, the HCQ arm showed a significant reduction of symptom severity. That's sounds like a benefit to me.


Irritated about what? From what I have read on it, there are side affects, and these are serious in some cases. I believe this is why Dr. Fauci is urging caution not because it might help but it might do permanent long term damage.

So after reading about the effects of these drugs and what exactly the reason a person might take it, who wants to sign up? Diarrhea is not the side effects when dealing with this drug.


----------



## KenOC

Bigbang said:


> Irritated about what? From what I have read on it, there are side affects, and these are serious in some cases. I believe this is why Dr. Fauci is urging caution not because it might help but it might do permanent long term damage.
> 
> So after reading about the effects of these drugs and what exactly the reason a person might take it, who wants to sign up? Diarrhea is not the side effects when dealing with this drug.


From the original *Bloomberg article* on the study that I cited: "There were more side effects in the group of 75 people who took hydroxychloroquine, but they were mostly mild, the most common being diarrhea."


----------



## Open Book

Some side effects you would not want to experience.


----------



## DaveM

Bigbang said:


> Irritated about what? From what I have read on it, there are side affects, and these are serious in some cases. I believe this is why Dr. Fauci is urging caution not because it might help but it might do permanent long term damage.
> 
> So after reading about the effects of these drugs and what exactly the reason a person might take it, who wants to sign up? Diarrhea is not the side effects when dealing with this drug.


All you apparently know is what you've read. The information given about HCQ is often misunderstood. If given for 5 days with reasonable doses the chances of serious side effects is relatively small. If you give large doses for 2-3 weeks, as occurred in the study I mentioned you are more likely to get more worrisome side effects. The commonest side effect in that study was diarrhea.

The side effects of HCQ that have been those most listed in the severe category have occurred after months-years of treatment. One reason the drug is not as dangerous for short term use as inferred on TV and elsewhere is because it is used day after day, year after year, by those with Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis. Those on long term use have to have there retinas examined among other things periodically. Also, I wouldn't want to take HCQ with azithromycin even short-term due to possible QT interval increase.

Personally, based on a reduction of severity of symptoms if taken early in more than one study, I would take HCQ if I contracted the virus. I know what my QT interval is and I would monitor it just to be on the safe-side.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> I didn't mean that particular graph, but rather the whole website. There are more interesting graphs there, for example this one
> https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-daily-deaths-epidemiological-trajectory


This is interesting. Greece came way way down. They are having a really strict lockdown from what I have heard from someone I know who lives there.


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> All you apparently know is what you've read. The information given about HCQ is often misunderstood. If given for 5 days with reasonable doses the chances of serious side effects is relatively small. If you give large doses for 2-3 weeks, as occurred in the study I mentioned you are more likely to get more worrisome side effects. The commonest side effect in that study was diarrhea.
> 
> The side effects of HCQ that have been those most listed in the severe category have occurred after months-years of treatment. One reason the drug is not as dangerous for short term use as inferred on TV and elsewhere is because it is used day after day, year after year, by those with Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis. Those on long term use have to have there retinas examined among other things periodically. Also, I wouldn't want to take HCQ with azithromycin even short-term due to possible QT interval increase.
> 
> Personally, based on a reduction of severity of symptoms if taken early in more than one study, I would take HCQ if I contracted the virus. I know what my QT interval is and I would monitor it just to be on the safe-side.


I read that the HCQ trials for coronavirus were stopped in several countries, because a much more common occurence of heart arrests. In people with severe pneumonia who need a respirator, there is a massive stress on the heart. This massive stress + HCQ led to frequent arrests.


----------



## Art Rock

KenOC said:


> Also, as stated in the article, the side effects were mostly minor, primarily diarrhea.


Toilet paper hoarders: YES!


----------



## KenOC

Dow futures are up over 800 points tonight due to *treatment hopes*:

"University of Chicago Medicine researchers said they saw 'rapid recoveries' in 125 COVID-19 patients taking Gilead Sciences Inc.'s experimental drug remdesivir as part of a clinical trial, according to a Thursday afternoon report."

Caution: "The results represent a very small sample and aren't a part of a clinical trial." Actually, the article cited says both it is and isn't part of a clinical trial, so I guess you get to take your pick. :lol:


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> All you apparently know is what you've read. The information given about HCQ is often misunderstood. If given for 5 days with reasonable doses the chances of serious side effects is relatively small. If you give large doses for 2-3 weeks, as occurred in the study I mentioned you are more likely to get more worrisome side effects. The commonest side effect in that study was diarrhea.
> 
> The side effects of HCQ that have been those most listed in the severe category have occurred after months-years of treatment. One reason the drug is not as dangerous for short term use as inferred on TV and elsewhere is because it is used day after day, year after year, by those with Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis. Those on long term use have to have there retinas examined among other things periodically. Also, I wouldn't want to take HCQ with azithromycin even short-term due to possible QT interval increase.
> 
> Personally, based on a reduction of severity of symptoms if taken early in more than one study, I would take HCQ if I contracted the virus. I know what my QT interval is and I would monitor it just to be on the safe-side.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...pped-due-to-heart-problems-deaths/ar-BB12Gs0e
for example here, but I read that also Sweden stopped the trials for similar reason. Maybe it is safer in mild cases, but can be dangerous in the severe cases (stress on the heart due to pneumonia + the virus attacks also heart)


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...pped-due-to-heart-problems-deaths/ar-BB12Gs0e
> for example here, but I read that also Sweden stopped the trials for similar reason. Maybe it is safer in mild cases, but can be dangerous in the severe cases (stress on the heart due to pneumonia + the virus attacks also heart)


But that is chloroquine not HCQ. I've never understood why chloroquine is being used at all. In any event, I don't think there has been any evidence that either drug is useful at the severest stages of the disease. If HCQ is going to work, it will be fairly early on, which would coincide with its in vitro action.


----------



## Jacck

A Chinese paper shows that almost all infections occur indoors and 80 percent are from family members
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1


----------



## DaveM

I’ll be going to the bank tomorrow for the first time in a month. The last thing I have ever thought I would do is wear a mask in a bank.


----------



## DaveM

Early evidence indicates a good response to the antiviral, remdesivir, in even more severe cases.

Edit: noticed KenOC mentioned this above. We probably saw the same source.


----------



## Flamme

I read somewhere there are suggestions that we have a new BC AC time eras...Before and after Corona...Not far from truth...I personally count my time before and after my mums illness/death, in july, august and september last year when my world was turned upside down...


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> I'll be going to the bank tomorrow for the first time in a month. The last thing I have ever thought I would do is wear a mask in a bank.


Hah! Apart from the mask (not a Reagan one, I hope), I strongly advise you not to carry any suspicious-looking objects with you.


----------



## erki

DaveM said:


> I'll be going to the bank tomorrow for the first time in a month. The last thing I have ever thought I would do is wear a mask in a bank.


When they look frightened and hand you a bag of cash do not take it as good customer service - vehemently refuse!


----------



## DaveM

DaveM said:


> I'll be going to the bank tomorrow for the first time in a month. The last thing I have ever thought I would do is wear a mask in a bank.


I went to the bank, went up to the counter and without requesting anything was immediately handed $1000 in crisp new $20 bills.


----------



## aleazk

DaveM said:


> I went to the bank, went up to the counter and without requesting anything was immediately handed $1000 in crisp new $20 bills.


Hahaha so surreal


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> I continue to be really irritated by the misinformation about hydroxychloroquine and tests using it. I don't have a horse in this race. If HCQ doesn't turn out to be beneficial then so be it, but at least people reporting on it should be accurate, honest and have some sort of educated perspective. In one of the latest reports of a small study, the heading of the article is to the effect that HCQ Shows No Benefit. It also mentions that the HCQ arm had 30% adverse events vs. 8.8% in the control arm.
> 
> What was ignored was the fact that the doses used were almost twice as high as the original small French study and are high enough to cause a higher incidence of side effects. Also, while the HCQ didn't clear measurable virus any faster than the control, the HCQ arm showed a significant reduction of symptom severity. That's sounds like a benefit to me.


The reason I do not argue about these things is I am not a medical professional. It is not my place to say one or the other. And it definitely is not the place of the POTUS to babble on about it when he cannot grasp very basic concepts and this has been demonstrated over and over. Again, there are doctors who are concerned about the "promoting" this drug in the media. So if doctors (including Dr Fauci) are going on the record to state this and they have extensive knowledge it probably is not best to get the "truth" on a classical music website. I happen to know a woman who takes this drug for Lupus. Same story--eye check up and all. But there are people who have damaged their eyes (and I am not privy to what happened in their case) and apparently there are other issues as well. Really I think Dr. Trump, oops, I mean President Trump ought to back off playing a doctor on TV and try to run the country but apparently he cannot get his own image out of his head, making him dangerous as people for some reason worship him as some sort of demi-god they project on him. And this is scary, indeed.


----------



## Bigbang

KenOC said:


> From the original *Bloomberg article* on the study that I cited: "There were more side effects in the group of 75 people who took hydroxychloroquine, but they were mostly mild, the most common being diarrhea."


You are referring to specifics around a study and a magazine reporting. Better to google the real issues for yourself regardless of how it helps or not in coronavirus.


----------



## tdc

The problem is medical doctors are educated by big pharma "If this, then this" approach. They aren't given a wholistic systems approach to nutrition or health. Sadly I think even many medical doctors advice in certain areas of health is questionable today. On this topic I agree with Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, a doctor and also the inventor of email. Sadly his knowledge does not support the corrupt, bought and paid for corporate media narrative, so much of his advice (like a frightening number of others) has been censored of late.

This kind of censorship I find very disturbing. If one doesn't agree then say why, don't simply silence dissent, that is not how the process is supposed to work in a free country. 

"Where books are burned, in the end people will be burned." 
- Heinrich Heine, 1821

Interesting that so many people act shocked and disgusted that Trump (who is not a doctor) dare make a comment about a medical treatment. (Seemingly following the exact reaction the mainstream media tells them to have). 

Ok, yet I don't see these same people criticizing Bill Gates, who is not a medical doctor yet seems to act like an authority on controversial vaccine treatments that have killed and sterilized countless people and paralyzed around a half million children in developing countries. And this man wants to make vaccines mandatory, and has even made comments like "large group gatherings may never come back until there is a vaccine." So this unelected billionaire with no medical degree and a past of shady monopolizing business deals with microsoft is acting like he is an authority on all of the people of the world now?


----------



## KenOC

From CNN, some *more detail* on the reportedly encouraging clinical trial of Remdesivir headed up by the University of Chicago. A specialist in the trials team says, "The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We've only had two patients perish… Most of our patients are severe and most of them are leaving at six days, so that tells us duration of therapy doesn't have to be 10 days."


----------



## Bigbang

Unfortunately I can cannot give my opinion freely on Donald Trump. The issue he has with the coronavirus is really the same with all issues he deals with over and over. When things go wrong he is not the reason why. So the problem in this type of person is deciding on a drug for no other reason than it might elevate him to savior status. Bill Gates has been dealing with these issues before the coronavirus and now devotes his life to these causes. He puts his money where his mouth is. He could be living his life on a yacht or whatever but apparently he married a woman who seems to have changed his life. Whatever other issues he might have, no comparison to Donald Trump.

All doctors are under the influence of Pharma (even to push tests/exams to prevent based on protocol) but nothing gained to give an opinion that there are side effects to drugs and then go on to say what they might be. BTW, just heard that Brazil stopped the study on the drug hydroxychloroquine due to issues to the heart. I am for anyone to give opinions when they are informed and can back it up but the president is known not to care about those type of deals.


----------



## DaveM

tdc said:


> The problem is medical doctors are educated by big pharma "If this, then this" approach. They aren't given a wholistic systems approach to nutrition or health. Sadly I think even many medical doctors advice in certain areas of health is questionable today. On this topic I agree with Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, a doctor and also the inventor of email. Sadly his knowledge does not support the corrupt, bought and paid for corporate media narrative, so much of his advice (like a frightening number of others) has been censored of late.
> 
> This kind of censorship I find very disturbing. If one doesn't agree then say why, don't simply silence dissent, that is not how the process is supposed to work in a free country.
> 
> "Where books are burned, in the end people will be burned."
> - Heinrich Heine, 1821
> 
> Interesting that so many people act shocked and disgusted that Trump (who is not a doctor) dare make a comment about a medical treatment. (Seemingly following the exact reaction the mainstream media tells them to have).
> 
> Ok, yet I don't see these same people criticizing Bill Gates, who is not a medical doctor yet seems to act like an authority on controversial vaccine treatments that have killed and sterilized countless people and paralyzed around a half million children in developing countries. And this man wants to make vaccines mandatory, and has even made comments like "large group gatherings may never come back until there is a vaccine." So this unelected billionaire with no medical degree and a past of shady monopolizing business deals with microsoft is acting like he is an authority on all of the people of the world now?


Yeah well, your Dr. Shiva is not a medical doctor either, though you tried to imply it. He also claims that Dr. Fauci is a deep-state plant hellbent on "forced and mandatory vaccines" to support "Big Pharma". As for his email claim, there was electronic mail years before he claimed to invent it. I'm not even going to react to the Bill Gates vaccine matter because your credibility has pretty much been shot to hell on all things medical.


----------



## DaveM

Bigbang said:


> All doctors are under the influence of Pharma (even to push tests/exams to prevent based on protocol) but nothing gained to give an opinion that there are side effects to drugs and then go on to say what they might be. BTW, just heard that Brazil stopped the study on the drug hydroxychloroquine to to issues to the heart. *I am for anyone to give opinions when they are informed and can back it up* but the president is known not to care about those type of deals.


I agree: the Brazil study was not 'on the drug hydroxychloroquine'. And you have no way of knowing if '_*All*_ doctors are under the influence of Pharma'.


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> I agree: the Brazil study was not 'on the drug hydroxychloroquine'. And you have no way of knowing if '_*All*_ doctors are under the influence of Pharma'.


Yes, thanks for the correction on the brazil study as I heard it on the tv news tonight but thought it was hydroxychloroquine.

As far as "all" doctors--not meant to be taken literally, I could have said "most doctors" or "some doctors" and there are doctors who do not prescribe medications. And doctors work for hospitals and other employers who influence the doctors who work for them. My point is the doctors usually work in a setting that is influenced by pharmacology. So one way or another a doctor has to decide the data on what is given out in studies if it applies to them. So yes, I would not know if "all" doctors as how could I? But if my point is not taken then perhaps not.


----------



## KenOC

The *IHME projections* have been updated as of yesterday. Now, for many states, the results estimate the dates on which social distancing might be relaxed as well as the protocols required (testing, gathering limits, and so forth).

For my state, for instance, it says, "After May 18, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size."


----------



## Open Book

tdc said:


> Interesting that so many people act shocked and disgusted that Trump (who is not a doctor) dare make a comment about a medical treatment. (Seemingly following the exact reaction the mainstream media tells them to have).





tdc said:


> , yet I don't see these same people criticizing Bill Gates, who is not a medical doctor yet seems to act like an authority on controversial vaccine treatments that have killed and sterilized countless people and paralyzed around a half million children in developing countries. And this man wants to make vaccines mandatory, and has even made comments like "large group gatherings may never come back until there is a vaccine." So this unelected billionaire with no medical degree and a past of shady monopolizing business deals with microsoft is acting like he is an authority on all of the people of the world now?


Bill Gates is a computer scientist (understatement, huh?). Computer science is a science. Gates may not have medical degree but I'll bet he understands the mathematics of the spread of disease through populations better than most doctors. He's outstanding in his scientific field. He more than has the smarts to grasp scientific concepts outside his field and to know what his limitations are and when to defer to people more expert than himself. Unlike some elected officials.

Show me a link alleging that vaccines have paralyzed and sterilized millions of people. Even if there are side effects for a few people with vaccines, it's better to take our chances with them than with viruses, which have decimated populations in the past.

I think you are a loner and rugged individualist by personality. You are suspicious of and resistant to anything requiring group cooperation. Well, things like pandemics require group cooperation to solve. We all get vaccinated, not some of us. We all need to practice social distancing, not some of us. And social distancing should have strict rules followed uniformly to be effective, not everyone making up their own rules.

Sometimes we're all in this together, like it or not.


----------



## DaveM

It’s too bad that anti-vaxxers can’t be forced to live in an environment for several years where there are some good ole active benign illnesses such as smallpox, polio, diphtheria, measles and whooping cough...just for a start. And then just for giggles, experience the wonder of a good case of the flu (without any previous vaccine) complicated by a good hefty dose of pneumococcus which could have been mitigated by a vaccine, but too bad, so sad, wasn’t.


----------



## Jacck

Bill Gates is now also a target
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/technology/bill-gates-virus-conspiracy-theories.html
some of the loonier ones even believe that he spread the virus deliberately, so that he can then vaccinate the people and thus implant them with tracking microchips


----------



## Jacck

Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04...ples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
this is some really good news, if true


----------



## KenOC

*Protests in California*.

"It's not dangerous out here. It's not," Benny White, 33, of Compton, told the L.A. Times. "I've seen plenty of people out here. The beaches are open. It's a nice, beautiful day. What are we doing? Stop being a germophobe."


----------



## Jacck

Antibody study suggests coronavirus is far more widespread than previously thought
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought
if this is true then the epidemic might be over sooner than expected


----------



## Flamme

There is definitely an Agenda behind the coronavirus the only question is whether IT invented the strain or just using it as a vessel...The global physical and mental ''control'', like the 1 existing in China, is, Im afraid, coming.


----------



## mrdoc

How about Area 51, plus all those UFOs and ancient aliens which were documented by Erich von Däniken ? 
I wonder if Bleach is effective against these things...


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> Antibody study suggests coronavirus is far more widespread than previously thought...if this is true then the epidemic might be over sooner than expected


They are going to conduct a mass testing in my country next week - on an isolated island where basketball game with Italian team produced extremely wide spread infection and in a housing development in the capitol with very low confirmed cases - looking for antibodies. Would be very interesting what the result will be.


----------



## Iota

erki said:


> They are going to conduct a mass testing in my country next week - on an isolated island where basketball game with Italian team produced extremely wide spread infection and in a housing development in the capitol with very low confirmed cases - looking for antibodies. Would be very interesting what the result will be.


That result certainly would be interesting, particularly if at all in line with the California study in #2518.


----------



## Open Book

erki said:


> They are going to conduct a mass testing in my country next week - on an isolated island where basketball game with Italian team produced extremely wide spread infection and in a housing development in the capitol with very low confirmed cases - looking for antibodies. Would be very interesting what the result will be.


If they look only in places which have a known connection to the virus, they're certainly going to find it. They need to test in other places, too, all over, at random, to see how widespread it is.


----------



## DaveM

Flamme said:


> There is definitely an Agenda behind the coronavirus the only question is whether IT invented the strain or just using it as a vessel...The global physical and mental ''control'', like the 1 existing in China, is, Im afraid, coming.


IT training seems to have expanded into infectious diseases...


----------



## Flamme

Infection terrorism...Who would thunk...


----------



## KenOC

Warning: Political content (but definitely coronavirus-related).

On Thursday, Pres. Trump unveiled his plans for gradual re-opening of the economy, including measures that were generally agreed on. He made it clear that the governors would manage the process in their states. Everybody went home happy.

Yesterday, though, he *tweeted support* for protesters who were assembling in various places, probably in violation of anti-gathering laws, and demanding immediate re-openings. He went so far as to call for Minnesota, Michigan and Virginia to be "liberated."

Reaction has been swift. Gov. Inslee of WA, for instance, *issued a statement* accusing Trump of "spewing dangerous, anti-democratic rhetoric" and even of "fomenting domestic rebellion."

I'd guess that Trump has a risky and deeply cynical strategy in mind. By encouraging peaceful protest assemblies (a right guaranteed by the Constitution after all) he is trying to force the governments of these mostly blue states to conduct mass arrests of their own citizens, which should cost them some measure of popularity. And if the governments yield and re-open early, and the virus flares up again, well, that was a bad choice of their own, after Trump generously granted them authority to use their own judgment.

Either way, Trump wins, and 2020 looks brighter for him!


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> I'd guess that Trump has a risky and deeply cynical strategy in mind. By encouraging peaceful protest assemblies (a right guaranteed by the Constitution after all) he is trying to force the governments of these mostly blue states to conduct mass arrests of their own citizens, which should cost them some measure of popularity. And if the governments yield and re-open early, and the virus flares up again, well, that was a bad choice of their own, after Trump generously granted them authority to use their own judgment.
> 
> Either way, Trump wins, and 2020 looks brighter for him!










--------------


----------



## KenOC

San Clemente here in SoCal has closed its parks under the distancing rules. But it couldn't keep the pesky skateboarders out of its skating park. So it filled it up with several tons of sand.

The local skaters are outraged, but that doesn't stop them from enjoying their new "beach," and with just the right brand of beer.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Yesterday, though, he *tweeted support* for protesters who were assembling in various places, probably in violation of anti-gathering laws, and demanding immediate re-openings. He went so far as to call for Minnesota, Michigan and Virginia to be "liberated."


----------



## starthrower

What's up with Sweden.
https://reason.com/2020/04/17/in-sw...han-state-enforced-lockdowns-in-the-long-run/

Interesting article that discusses the confusion of the numbers game and whether enforced lockdowns are worth the risk of devastating economies and society.


----------



## Jacck

^^ Sweden is certainly an interesting case. They have a relatively low population density and people tend to live alone
https://www.thelocal.se/20180412/why-do-so-many-swedes-live-alone
which might explain why such strict quarantine measures as in other countries are not necessary. Even so, my country started with Sweden at about the same initial trajectory, but we have 150 deaths, and they have 1500 deaths and going up. We also have a higher population density.


----------



## Jacck

Jacck said:


> ^^ Sweden is certainly an interesting case. They have a relatively low population density and people tend to live alone
> https://www.thelocal.se/20180412/why-do-so-many-swedes-live-alone
> which might explain why such strict quarantine measures as in other countries are not necessary. Even so, my country started with Sweden at about the same initial trajectory, but we have 150 deaths, and they have 1500 deaths and going up. We also have a higher population density.


other countries such as GB, NL, FR tried the Swedish approach before and it did not go so well.


----------



## starthrower

No country is going to save everybody and we can't stay locked down for two years. I don't envy the decision makers in this pandemic.


----------



## Jacck

starthrower said:


> No country is going to save everybody and we can't stay locked down for two years. I don't envy the decision makers in this pandemic.


there are basically 2 approaches, either everybody catches it (herd immunity) or we purge the virus out of society (massive testing, clever quarantines, contact tracing etc). Even the experts are not unified. I would purge it.


----------



## Art Rock

Jacck said:


> other countries such as GB, NL, FR tried the Swedish approach before and it did not go so well.


it's difficult to compare. Our southern neighbor Belgium (11.5 million) took more stringent measures than the Netherlands (17.3 million). Current death counts: 5683 (B) versus 3684 (NL).


----------



## starthrower

Unfortunately in the US we've got the Covid re-election campaign underway. The president says it's up to the states, but when citizens (his base) defy stay at home orders he encourages the mutiny.


----------



## eljr

starthrower said:


> Unfortunately in the US we've got the Covid re-election campaign underway. The president says it's up to the states, but when citizens (his base) defy stay at home orders he encourages the mutiny.


i never thought something like this could happen in the usa

we really are out of control and he will cause a hot war if he loses the election


----------



## Bigbang

All I can say is this is a test of what the framers had in mind. Well, obviously they would or could not imagine what could happen but we are seeing a person in office who has these traits (lets say extremely dangerous) and he is in chains, and cannot seem to get out of his prison. Welcome to the vision of the framers....let us see if he can overthrow our constitution and crown himself king or we finally throw his______ out of office in November. It is not a battle of ideology but people around us (neighbors/friends/families, etc.,) identify with this type of behaviour. For real, this is NOT about politics, it is about "us". These traits exist and in large numbers and so the only way to avoid this type of phenomena (electing a person who is what he is) again, is to vote for sanity, even if you do not like the person you are voting for.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> there are basically 2 approaches, either everybody catches it (herd immunity) or we purge the virus out of society (massive testing, clever quarantines, contact tracing etc). Even the experts are not unified. I would purge it.


This one's not even Catch-22, it's probaly much higher up, like Catch-3 or 4. I agree with you and Starthrower - it's not a decision I;d like to make. The other day I was in the health food store in my local town, asking to purchase certain items. The owner said he won't have new stock until he pays his credit card debts, and then can buy more, end of the month, at the earliest. He tried to sell me an expensive alternative, but even as he offered, he immediately began to haggle his price downwards. I felt awful for him, because this was a busy shop a couple of months ago, but who knows if it'll open in May?

This is the desperate conundrum governments face: they can continue lockdown until the virus is purged, and then release the population to a broken, poverty stricken wasteland. Or they can stagger the release and try keep things from hitting rock bottom.

We don't know fully which is the right or wrong way, we only know outcomes can be lousy either way. I'd be in favour of a staggered release (once they flatten the curve), particularly of the youngest and most healthy, with limits placed on entering shops, pubs, cafes. I don't think anyone can feasibly keep a healthy population locked up indefinitely...


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> Warning: Political content (but definitely coronavirus-related).
> 
> On Thursday, Pres. Trump unveiled his plans for gradual re-opening of the economy, including measures that were generally agreed on. He made it clear that the governors would manage the process in their states. Everybody went home happy.
> 
> Yesterday, though, he *tweeted support* for protesters who were assembling in various places, probably in violation of anti-gathering laws, and demanding immediate re-openings. He went so far as to call for Minnesota, Michigan and Virginia to be "liberated."
> 
> Reaction has been swift. Gov. Inslee of WA, for instance, *issued a statement* accusing Trump of "spewing dangerous, anti-democratic rhetoric" and even of "fomenting domestic rebellion."
> 
> I'd guess that Trump has a risky and deeply cynical strategy in mind. By encouraging peaceful protest assemblies (a right guaranteed by the Constitution after all) he is trying to force the governments of these mostly blue states to conduct mass arrests of their own citizens, which should cost them some measure of popularity. And if the governments yield and re-open early, and the virus flares up again, well, that was a bad choice of their own, after Trump generously granted them authority to use their own judgment.
> 
> Either way, Trump wins, and 2020 looks brighter for him!


What TRump is doing is saying "Look over there!"

When I was young and I saw a disturbance on the street or in a store, theater I learned early not to look at the ruckus but rather to scan the area opposite. 
It's an old trick, make a commotion as your partners picks the pockets of the distracted.


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> San Clemente here in SoCal has closed its parks under the distancing rules. But it couldn't keep the pesky skateboarders out of its skating park. So it filled it up with several tons of sand.
> 
> The local skaters are outraged, but that doesn't stop them from enjoying their new "beach," and with just the right brand of beer.


should be led away in handcuffs


----------



## Bigbang

Kieran said:


> This one's not even Catch-22, it's probaly much higher up, like Catch-3 or 4. I agree with you and Starthrower - it's not a decision I;d like to make. The other day I was in the health food store in my local town, asking to purchase certain items. The owner said he won't have new stock until he pays his credit card debts, and then can buy more, end of the month, at the earliest. He tried to sell me an expensive alternative, but even as he offered, he immediately began to haggle his price downwards. I felt awful for him, because this was a busy shop a couple of months ago, but who knows if it'll open in May?
> 
> This is the desperate conundrum governments face: they can continue lockdown until the virus is purged, and then release the population to a broken, poverty stricken wasteland. Or they can stagger the release and try keep things from hitting rock bottom.
> 
> We don't know fully which is the right or wrong way, we only know outcomes can be lousy either way. I'd be in favour of a staggered release (once they flatten the curve), particularly of the youngest and most healthy, with limits placed on entering shops, pubs, cafes. I don't think anyone can feasibly keep a healthy population locked up indefinitely...


I do think if the countries were ready (hospitals+supplies) and education of the public for this kind of virus, we would not have shut down, but rather used common sense approaches such educating the public on how to prevent and not spread disease.

Just as medical staff are taught this so the public should be too. That way, we work and go about our business BUT we do not engage in activities that would help spread the virus.


----------



## eljr

Bigbang said:


> I do think if the countries were ready (hospitals+supplies) and education of the public for this kind of virus, we would not have shut down, but rather used common sense approaches such educating the public on how to prevent and not spread disease.
> 
> Just as medical staff are taught this so the public should be too. That way, we work and go about our business BUT we do not engage in activities that would help spread the virus.


by not shut down you mean continue with concerts and sports stadiums filled with people?

I doubt it. You would have such high numbers of infections no system could be prepared.


----------



## Bigbang

eljr said:


> by not shut down you mean continue with concerts and sports stadiums filled with people?
> 
> I doubt it. You would have such high numbers of infections no system could be prepared.


It would depend of course on circumstances but I personally think that it is our habits, not crowds that is the biggest factor. People in stadiums might be shouting, screaming, along with all the other things that would make it worse. A muted crowd celebrating with signs? Lol. I get it but you can bet the countries now know we have to be prepared for this without shutting down so many places of work. It goes without saying that fun activities that support the economy too must be looked at carefully but who knows what ideas will come of this...as they say...the new normal.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

starthrower said:


> Unfortunately in the US we've got the Covid re-election campaign underway. The president says it's up to the states, but when citizens (his base) defy stay at home orders he encourages the mutiny.


It is not mutiny to peacefully protest. Did you call it mutiny when Hillary supporters rioted and broke windows after Trump won?


----------



## eljr

Bigbang said:


> It would depend of course on circumstances but I personally think that it is our habits, not crowds that is the biggest factor. People in stadiums might be shouting, screaming, along with all the other things that would make it worse. A muted crowd celebrating with signs? Lol. I get it but you can bet the countries now know we have to be prepared for this without shutting down so many places of work. It goes without saying that fun activities that support the economy too must be looked at carefully but who knows what ideas will come of this...as they say...the new normal.


did not countries know before? and like humans, out of sight, out of mind


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

eljr said:


> should be led away in handcuffs


While criminals are being let out of jail.


----------



## starthrower

Johnnie Burgess said:


> It is not mutiny to peacefully protest. Did you call it mutiny when Hillary supporters rioted and broke windows after Trump won?


The social gatherings of protest defeat the purpose of social distancing. And Trump is playing both sides with no concern for the medical consequences because he only cares about his re-election prospects.


----------



## Flamme

There are so many conflicting reports, 1 does not know what and who 2 trust...In my country there are many dead ppl from corona compared 2 size of the country and population https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/serbia/ but stil government talks about easing the measures and the lockdown...This is so unpredictictible...


----------



## Art Rock

Flamme said:


> ....In my country there are many dead ppl from corona compared 2 size of the country and population...


I'd say with 122 dead on a population of 9 million, you're doing great. Here we are at 3684 with under twice your population.


----------



## Bigbang

eljr said:


> did not countries know before? and like humans, out of sight, out of mind


I am not sure what your you mean exactly but no, the countries were not prepared or could not know what the virus would be like. In general, the same principles apply to this situation. You observe washing hands, avoiding sneezing outward, coughing (stay home), avoid risky behaviours in public/crowds, and so forth. I mean, they shut down everything because it is not possible to explain to the public how to engage with due risk. One of the biggest issue I see is people who make signs (do what I say and not what I do) about keep 6ft distance but fail to do it themselves. First, they forget (or think they are not infected) how to act when around their kind (after all friends and family are not the enemy) and think it is OK to visit friends and family. Would you knowingly hug a family member if you had the virus? Anyway, because I can see what is going on around me then we know it is about behaviors mostly.

You can bet people will be stocking up on essentials for future outbreaks.

If I told people in person I was infected with the coronavirus when I meet them you would see a totally different reaction than merely assuming I might be a risk. You can bet they would look at me in horror and disgust at thinking of getting near me. I saw this first hand when someone I was speaking to thought I said I had the virus when I told them to not to come to me. She backed up in shock at first until I explained myself.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Art Rock said:


> I'd say with 122 dead on a population of 9 million, you're doing great. Here we are at 3684 with under twice your population.


Art, can you throw any light on why Belgium's figures are so bad? I thought as Belgium is a neighbouring country you may know more than most.


----------



## erki

In my country there have been some voices from very beginning that caution against unnecessary measures. The lockdown has felt like some exiting new game that everyone plays and wet dream for some politicians. I am really afraid when people get finally sober and find everything around them in ruins. What are the consequences(on human lives) of this no one knows.
We should be thinking about what we will do if this kind of virus never goes away entirely - are we going to shut down the world again every time it emerges?
So my big hope is on these governments who did not jump on the lockdown bandwagon and kept the heads clear. Even if more of their people died.


----------



## eljr

.................................................................


----------



## Flamme

Art Rock said:


> I'd say with 122 dead on a population of 9 million, you're doing great. Here we are at 3684 with under twice your population.


We have around 7 mills since Kosovo left...Dunno, for a small country it seems a lot 2 me...3684, dead??? Wow...How can u explain that...I am also shocked by us and uk numbers...I alwys thought anglo-saxon medical system is above everything else...I know about flaws of US health insurance but what is the UKs excuse...Sounds like a lousy tuned orchestra in a lack of a better word...


----------



## Art Rock

elgars ghost said:


> Art, can you throw any light on why Belgium's figures are so bad? I thought as Belgium is a neighbouring country you may know more than most.


One thing that clouds all comparisons is that each country has their own method of counting Corona deaths. I know in the Netherlands it's only confirmed cases (in practice, people dying in hospital or in rare cases elsewhere when they've been tested and found positive). Purely based on statistical figures the actual Corona death count is probably higher by a factor of 1.5-2.0. I don't know what Belgium does in this respect.


----------



## Art Rock

Flamme said:


> We have around 7 mills since Kosovo left...


I did not want to get into politics on that point.... 



> Dunno, for a small country it seems a lot 2 me...3684, dead??? Wow...How can u explain that...I am also shocked by us and uk numbers...I alwys thought anglo-saxon medical system is above everything else...I know about flaws of US health insurance but what is the UKs excuse...Sounds like a lousy tuned orchestra in a lack of a better word...


It's contagious. Very contagious. And it's killing a lot of people who get sick, especially if you're already on the danger list (age, heart condition, etc). We're doing reasonably well here in comparison to most other west European countries.

One thing that may be in your favour is that Serbs travel less than West Europeans (I would guess). Italy was the initial virus hot spot, and many people from other countries were there on skiiing holidays, caught it unknowingly, and spread it at home.


----------



## Open Book

Johnnie Burgess said:


> It is not mutiny to peacefully protest. Did you call it mutiny when Hillary supporters rioted and broke windows after Trump won?


Are the keeping a six foot distance and wearing masks when they protest? If not, it might be mutiny.


----------



## Jacck

Johnnie Burgess said:


> While criminals are being let out of jail.


they are not criminals, but mostly slaves of the prison-industrial complex incarcerated by corrupt judges to very high sentences for minor offences
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1998/12/the-prison-industrial-complex/304669/


----------



## starthrower

Open Book said:


> Are the keeping a six foot distance and wearing masks when they protest? If not, it might be mutiny.


Both the Michigan protest and the April 24th protest planned for Wisconsin are calculated political maneuvers against democratic governors supported by conservative politicians and Trump economic advisor Stephen Moore. Moore laughably compares this to Rosa Parks's stand against racist Jim Crow laws in the 1950s south.


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus
> https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04...ples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/
> this is some really good news, if true


I'm familiar with Chelsea. It's a densely populated city of mostly low-income people. From the article:

"Chelsea covers only about two square miles.... For generations, it has attracted new immigrants.... Many live in three-decker houses....where it's hard for people to isolate themselves. Many work in the hospitality industry and health-related fields, where exposure to the virus is greater. And a lot of them must go to work during the pandemic."

A suburban community with lots of space and smaller families where many people work their white collar jobs from home is not going to have as many cases per capita as Chelsea. I doubt if you randomly tested 200 people in posh Sudbury that you'd find as many cases of people who had had the virus as in Chelsea, 64. Sudbury would not be as close to herd immunity as Chelsea.

As for the percentage of hidden cases, this gives an idea of how many symptomless cases there are. 64 people had had the virus and half, 32, noticed some kind of symptoms, but maybe not bad enough to get them to the hospital where they would have been tested and would be among the statistics of "definites", not "I didn't know I had the virus". So people who had severe symptoms are probably missing from the survey.

We know from statistics taken all over the world that in active, visible cases about 1 in 30 people who gets tested while the virus is active dies. But these would largely be from among the worst cases. In Chelsea poor people might suffer at home even if their symptoms were really bad, but it's unknown how many. It's hard to analyze and make conclusions about actual death rate from this data, there are so many things to think about.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

Jacck said:


> they are not criminals, but mostly slaves of the prison-industrial complex incarcerated by corrupt judges to very high sentences for minor offences
> https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1998/12/the-prison-industrial-complex/304669/


The ones who committed murder are slaves?


----------



## senza sordino

Here in British Columbia we've done comparatively well. If you see stats of Canada, it's Quebec and Ontario where most of the cases and deaths are. BC had the first cases in Canada in January, but we managed to escape the worst of the pandemic. 

Population of BC = 5.1 million, with half of us living in the Metro Vancouver region. We have had 1647 cases of Covid-19 and 81 have died. 

We have a co-ordinated and integrated health care system, publicly funded. We haven't been testing as many as possible, instead our testing has been targeted. And those who test positive were isolated. Our plan started comparatively early, in February. Our Provincial Health Top Doctor, who's become a bit of a celebrity and hero here, worked in Toronto during the SARS outbreak, so she has some experience dealing with this. 

We were lucky that our School Spring Break occurred later than Quebec and Ontario. A travel advisory was implemented before people were able to go away. Everyone had to cancel trips at the last minute. I had one colleague who left anyway, and then was stranded overseas and couldn't get back till recently. 

Non essential shops were closed here, and restaurants, hair salons, places to get massage etc. But we have never had a full on shelter in place order. We are allowed out. Some shops still operate: bicycle shops, hardware shops etc. Parks are open, though parking lots are closed. This ensures only locals visit their local green space; you can't drive to a park. 

I think another reason why Covid-19 has not got as bad as it could is because while some people are still working at their regular place of work not many take public transit. During 'normal' times only about 20% of commuters take public transit (which is high by North American standards), everyone else drives. 

I see BC and Sweden as comparable. Our country is so vast and sparse you can't really compare all of Canada to another. We live in Provinces which operate like little countries within the whole. 

BC 5.1 million people; 1647 Cases of Covid-19, 81 deaths.
Sweden 10 million; 14 300 Cases of Covid-19, 1540 deaths.


----------



## Art Rock

Interesting. Even in a country as densely populated as the Netherlands, there are large parts where over the past few weeks hardly any Corona death has been reported (in fact, the total number of deaths in these parts is lower than usual!).


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

senza sordino said:


> Here in British Columbia we've done comparatively well. If you see stats of Canada, it's Quebec and Ontario where most of the cases and deaths are. BC had the first cases in Canada in January, but we managed to escape the worst of the pandemic.
> 
> Population of BC = 5.1 million, with half of us living in the Metro Vancouver region. We have had 1647 cases of Covid-19 and 81 have died.
> 
> We have a co-ordinated and integrated health care system, publicly funded. We haven't been testing as many as possible, instead our testing has been targeted. And those who test positive were isolated. Our plan started comparatively early, in February. Our Provincial Health Top Doctor, who's become a bit of a celebrity and hero here, worked in Toronto during the SARS outbreak, so she has some experience dealing with this.
> 
> We were lucky that our School Spring Break occurred later than Quebec and Ontario. A travel advisory was implemented before people were able to go away. Everyone had to cancel trips at the last minute. I had one colleague who left anyway, and then was stranded overseas and couldn't get back till recently.
> 
> Non essential shops were closed here, and restaurants, hair salons, places to get massage etc. But we have never had a full on shelter in place order. We are allowed out. Some shops still operate: bicycle shops, hardware shops etc. Parks are open, though parking lots are closed. This ensures only locals visit their local green space; you can't drive to a park.
> 
> I think another reason why Covid-19 has not got as bad as it could is because while some people are still working at their regular place of work not many take public transit. During 'normal' times only about 20% of commuters take public transit (which is high by North American standards), everyone else drives.
> 
> I see BC and Sweden as comparable. Our country is so vast and sparse you can't really compare all of Canada to another. We live in Provinces which operate like little countries within the whole.
> 
> BC 5.1 million people; 1647 Cases of Covid-19, 81 deaths.
> Sweden 10 million; 14 300 Cases of Covid-19, 1540 deaths.


I would not be surprised if public transportation is a major factor in the number of deaths. New York City is leading the US in deaths, would not be a shock if most of the dead there rode public transportation.


----------



## pianozach

Art Rock said:


> I did not want to get into politics on that point....
> 
> It's contagious. Very contagious. And it's killing a lot of people who get sick, especially if you're already on the danger list (age, heart condition, etc). We're doing reasonably well here in comparison to most other west European countries.
> 
> One thing that may be in your favour is that Serbs travel less than West Europeans (I would guess). *Italy was the initial virus hot spot*, and many people from other countries were there on skiiing holidays, caught it unknowingly, and spread it at home.


Actually, Wuhan, China was the initial virus hot spot.

I didn't realize there was such a link between China and Italy.


----------



## Art Rock

I was talking about Europe obviously. Actually, lots of Chinese immigrants (yes, from Wuhan...) work in the Lombardy region of Italy, and their return from visiting their families in Wuhan might have caused the outbreak in Italy.


----------



## Open Book

Ironically most of the cases in my state are supposed to have originated from a single conference held by Biogen, a biotech company, of all things. Someone went to the conference in February while sick and had no idea it was coronavirus. They should know better.

We also have a lot of Chinese people who even if not immigrants have ties to Chinese immigrants. The less time immigrants have been in a new country the stronger their ties to the old country -- they go back for visits, or host relatives from the old country, etc. It's not implausible that disease could have come in that way.


----------



## KenOC

A major factor in the virus’s spread was Chinese New Year. Chinese families usually travel to visit other family members as the date approaches. This year New Year came early, January 25. On January 14, the WHO reported that a Chinese study found no evidence of person-to-person transmission, and there seemed no reason to doubt the report. So things took their course.


----------



## eljr

Bigbang said:


> the countries were not prepared or could not know what the virus would be like.


countries have been well aware that we ripe for a pandemic

They were not prepared, that is for sure. (look how long it was out and in teh USA it was still being ignored)

Countries, like people, tend to ignore things until it's in there house.



> (after all friends and family are not the enemy) and think it is OK to visit friends and family.


very insightful

I need say it again, friends and family are not the enemy. This is deeply rooted in our mind and as such causes continued spread.

My moron neighbors, hillbillies, all saw fit to celebrate Easter with their families. Made me so mad. I knew if I asked them about it this is the rational I would get. It's family, they are OK. (not the enemy)


----------



## Jacck

eljr said:


> countries have been well aware that we ripe for a pandemic
> 
> They were not prepared, that is for sure. (look how long it was out and in teh USA it was still being ignored)
> 
> Countries, like people, tend to ignore things until it's in there house.


it is strange, how even whole countries can be collectively irrational, and that even despite all vast resources from intelligence agencies. BBC had an article about the psychological reasons behind this
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200409-why-we-find-it-difficult-to-recognise-a-crisis
Italy should have been a wake up call to all countries and a signal to start taking it seriously and preparing.


----------



## bz3

Art Rock said:


> Interesting. Even in a country as densely populated as the Netherlands, there are large parts where over the past few weeks hardly any Corona death has been reported (in fact, the total number of deaths in these parts is lower than usual!).


It's probably health. The problem in America is primarily the most unhealthy racial portion of the population. 70% of deaths in like 35% black Chicago, similar outsized numbers elsewhere. Blacks lead America in diabetes, hypertension, etc. Bad news for pulmonary illness. Would be interesting if they would release the numbers beyond racial and age breakdowns but alas that would not support the prevailing narrative of oppression so why bother. I would bet anybody of any race with cardiovascular issues is in bad trouble, and worse with age, but that most people are fine even stipulating some non-zero degree of racial differentiation in susceptibility.

Conversely, what I recall from visiting your country was how healthy and active the population seemed - even compared to other European nations let alone my country (America).


----------



## bz3

eljr said:


> My moron neighbors, hillbillies, all saw fit to celebrate Easter with their families. Made me so mad. I knew if I asked them about it this is the rational I would get. It's family, they are OK. (not the enemy)


Hillbillies exist in NYC? I guess they transplanted from Beverly Hills.


----------



## KenOC

I have to chuckle as I consider another leg of Trump’s 2020 campaign. That is is to demonize China (the “Fu Manchu strategy”) as the purposeful author of the worldwide coronavirus infection. That seems easy enough, even triggering some people on this forum. Then, as the election approaches, to air copious footage of Biden playing kissy-face with China, of which there is almost unlimited footage. Wait for it!

Dems continue to think that Trump is a clueless yokel, 2016 all over again. Good luck with that!


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> I have to chuckle as I consider another leg of Trump's 2020 campaign. That is is to demonize China (the "Fu Manchu strategy") as the purposeful author of the worldwide coronavirus infection. That seems easy enough, even triggering some people on this forum.* Then, as the election approaches, to air copious footage of Biden playing kissy-face with China, of which there is almost unlimited footage*. Wait for it! Dems continue to think that Trump is a clueless yokel, 2016 all over again. Good luck with that!


there is also enough footage of Trump praising China for its response to coronavirus and how Trump had a perfect call with Xi who promised him that the virus will disappear with warm weather. The problem is, that his base will not care. They are impervious to facts or logic. Also, without the electoral college, Trump would have no chance of winning. With the EC, milliions of votes of people are simply ignored and thrown away and the elections are decided in a couple of so called swing states. So the Republicans and Putin can concentrate just on the swing states to win the whole election.


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> there is also enough footage of Trump praising China for its response to coronavirus and how Trump had a perfect call with Xi who promised him that the virus will disappear with warm weather. The problem is, that his base will not care. They are impervious to facts or logic. Also, without the electoral college, Trump would have no chance of winning. With the EC, milliions of votes of people are simply ignored and thrown away and the elections are decided in a couple of so called swing states. So the Republicans and Putin can concentrate just on the swing states to win the whole election.


Yes, the Trump team showed in the last election how well they understood the EC. I doubt very much that has changed.


----------



## Jacck

For Charlie Kirk, Conservative Activist, the Virus Is a Cudgel
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/politics/charlie-kirk-conservatives-coronavirus.html
I do not know what society should do about crooks like Mr. Kirk. There should be some sort of accountability, but how? He can spew 100 lies a day, but it takes real effort to disprove just a single lie, and before it gets done, he spews more lies. Also, many people simply do not care for truth. These people like Kirk, Limbaugh, Hannity etc. can lie and lie and lie. In normal life, one would simply smash their face for all their lies, in the past, these people of no honor would be challenged to a duel for their lies, but in modern media, they can lie to millions without shame and any accountability


----------



## Jacck

Bild editor-in-chief open letter at Chinese president
„You are endangering the world"
https://www.bild.de/politik/interna...s-to-the-chinese-president-70098436.bild.html
Germans are finally waking up from their China bromance. Hopefully they will ban Huawei from 5G. Now also the Putin bromance and the Nordstream II etc.


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> Germans are finally waking up from their China bromance. Hopefully they will ban Huawei from 5G. Now also the Putin bromance and the Nordstream II etc.


Yes, I like read this kind of naked truth too. However I can not imagine any politician saying things like this and actually they shouldn't. But they should act without such a cringe they do with "BIG" players. And most importantly common people should support these politicians who have the courage by not demanding the cheapest and worshipping the richest.


----------



## Flamme

Art Rock said:


> I did not want to get into politics on that point....


But its a fact...Of life...More than 2 000 000 ppl ''left'' us when it gained independence...



Art Rock said:


> I It's contagious. Very contagious. And it's killing a lot of people who get sick, especially if you're already on the danger list (age, heart condition, etc). We're doing reasonably well here in comparison to most other west European countries.
> 
> One thing that may be in your favour is that Serbs travel less than West Europeans (I would guess). Italy was the initial virus hot spot, and many people from other countries were there on skiiing holidays, caught it unknowingly, and spread it at home.


Serbs travel a lot compared 2 their standard...Its still a mystery 4 me how some countries are literally RAVAGED by covidona and some are just, what is goin on???


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> But its a fact...Of life...More than 2 000 000 ppl ''left'' us when it gained independence...


I do not know why you did not let them go peacefully. We split from the Slovaks with almost no bad blood. (they wanted the split, not Czechs) and our relationships have been very good since. If we were trying to keep them in the common state by any force, the relationship would have deteriorated.



> Serbs travel a lot compared 2 their standard...Its still a mystery 4 me how some countries are literally RAVAGED by covidona and some are just, what is goin on???


we will see. Maybe the BCG vaccine? Or some other factor?
here is a map of Germany. You can see that former West Germany is more heavily effected than the East Germany


----------



## Flamme

Well many serbs consider kosovo a sacred serbian land, something like jeruslaim 4 jews, because of many churches and stuff so thats one of the answers...The other is there was a rebellion and civil war on kosovo 4 centuries...And east germany is supposed 2 b e the less developed part...No logic...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Well many serbs consider kosovo a sacred serbian land, something like jeruslaim 4 jews, because of many churches and stuff so thats one of the answers...The other is there was a rebellion and civil war on kosovo 4 centuries...And east germany is supposed 2 b e the less developed part...No logic...


East Germany was BCG vaccinated, and West Germany was not. Otherwise the West Germans have poured really a lot of money into the East, so it is now also developed.


----------



## Flamme

This I found when googling BCG https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...almette-guérin-(bcg)-vaccination-and-covid-19 There is so much rumours and CTs going around vaccine...Watced Bill G8s on BBC yesterday and he says that even in most optimistic predictions the timeline 4 vaccine is 18 months! He wants 2 finance its making but not the distribution...There may be a situation where we have like 5 or 10 different vaccines by different ppl, companies...Who can we trust...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> This I found when googling BCG https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...almette-guérin-(bcg)-vaccination-and-covid-19


of course it is just a hypothesis that needs to be proven. But there has to be some explanation why West Germany is affected more than East Germany, and Eastern Europe less than Western Europe. Cities like Prague and Budapest see A LOT of travel. So BCG vaccine is a possible hypothetical explanation. It is being investigated, so we will know the answer in due time.


----------



## Flamme

I dont c poland anywhere in news...I guess they 2 have less cases than expected...Its funny in the interview the journo asx Bill ''Our viewers wanna know only 1 thing, when the vaccine will be ready'' and then you go 2 the comment section and realize they are raving mad againt vaccine and they want him 2 try it 1st!!! lol


----------



## Jacck

Coronavirus: Germany's music, arts scene desperate for 'crucial' help
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germanys-music-arts-scene-desperate-for-crucial-help/a-53180214


----------



## Flamme

The very 1st commment on the vid


> God bless David Icke í ½í¹�


:lol:


----------



## Flamme

...Duplicate...


----------



## Art Rock

Top 10 deaths "west Europe" (basically west of the iron curtain)

Italy 23660
Spain 20582
France 19718
UK 16060
Belgium 5828
Germany 4642
Netherlands 3751
Sweden 1580
Switzerland 1406
Portugal 735

Top 10 deaths "eastEurope" (basically east of the iron curtain +former Yugoslavia)

Russia 405
Poland 362
Hungary 199
Czechia 188
Ukraine 151
Serbia 122
Slovenia 77
North Macedonia 54
Bosnia and Herzegovina 49
Croatia 47

The difference is indeed remarkable.


----------



## Flamme




----------



## arpeggio

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:


----------



## arpeggio

One of the best editorials I have read so far: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/18/sally-jenkins-trump-coronavirus-testing-economy/


----------



## TxllxT

arpeggio said:


> One of the best editorials I have read so far: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/18/sally-jenkins-trump-coronavirus-testing-economy/


The Washington Post is blocked for European readers. (perhaps you could copy/paste the best quotes)


----------



## Art Rock

TxllxT said:


> The Washington Post is blocked for European readers. (perhaps you could copy/paste the best quotes)


I have no problem - just had to pause the adblocker on the site.


----------



## TxllxT

Art Rock said:


> Top 10 deaths "west Europe" (basically west of the iron curtain)
> 
> Italy 23660
> Spain 20582
> France 19718
> UK 16060
> Belgium 5828
> Germany 4642
> Netherlands 3751
> Sweden 1580
> Switzerland 1406
> Portugal 735
> 
> Top 10 deaths "eastEurope" (basically east of the iron curtain +former Yugoslavia)
> 
> Russia 405
> Poland 362
> Hungary 199
> Czechia 188
> Ukraine 151
> Serbia 122
> Slovenia 77
> North Macedonia 54
> Bosnia and Herzegovina 49
> Croatia 47
> 
> The difference is indeed remarkable.


An explanation might be the Tuberculosis vaccination, which is/was given to each 'East Bloc' baby.


----------



## Sad Al

The Wash-sickton Post-humous. Another journalist trying to make money. More testing and basic protections? Why not more social distancing and Bach


----------



## TxllxT

Flamme said:


>


https://www.rbth.com/lifestyle/331957-soviet-posters-wash-hands Soviet Wash Your Hands Posters


----------



## Flamme

Art Rock said:


> I have no problem - just had to pause the adblocker on the site.


Me niether...Strange how they attack g8s like he is a demon from hell...:devil::lol:
I mentioned TB vaccine b4...Some have found a link...


----------



## aleazk




----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Some of you on here need to lighten up - I mean, calling people hillbillies because in a time of uncertainty, when there is genuine fear, they want to be with loved ones? Whether or not it is smart, it is a genuine human instinct. And just the antipathy for anybody who doesn't feel exactly the way you do?

At some point this will be over - being as horrible to people around you at this time as you can will last longer than the virus does.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

TxllxT said:


> An explanation might be the Tuberculosis vaccination, which is/was given to each 'East Bloc' baby.


There are other things common to those former Eastern Bloc countries that might help curb the spread - for one, they don't have as long of a history of liberty, and are maybe less resistant to authoritarian control when they are told to shelter in place. They are used to doing what their leaders tell them.

And I've been at least to Hungary. Hungary is Budapest, and that is about it.

What on earth a TB vaccination (TB is a bacteria) might do in terms of a respiratory viral infection is beyond me.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> What on earth a TB vaccination (TB is a bacteria) might do in terms of a respiratory viral infection is beyond me.


maybe a little less humility in your Dunning-Kruger-type comment next time
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> maybe a little less humility in your Dunning-Kruger-type comment next time
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...e-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus


What the crap is a Dunning-Kruger type comment? And it was just a comment. The two seem unrelated, other than that they both infect lungs. And from what I've heard, the TB vaccine is not that effective against TB - one of the reasons most Western countries don't use it, and then once you get it you will always test positive for the TB skin test, so they'll have to send you for a chest x-ray. Do we really want mass TB vaccination?


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> What the crap is a Dunning-Kruger type comment? And it was just a comment. The two seem unrelated, other than that they both infect lungs. And from what I've heard, the TB vaccine is not that effective against TB - one of the reasons most Western countries don't use it, and then once you get it you will always test positive for the TB skin test, so they'll have to send you for a chest x-ray. Do we really want mass TB vaccination?


Dunning-Kruger means when someone with little knowledge about a subject believes he is the expert on the subject. How the TB vaccine might actually protect is explained in the Science article - it traines the nonspecific immune response and enhances resistance to all kinds of infections, including viral infections such as yellow fever or (possibly) the coronavirus. It might also be important that the vaccine is given to newborns, because the immune system is shaped at an early age. I read that the BCG vaccine actually induces some epigenetic changes in the immune system. It is still being investigated. There are certainly papers about it

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29324233


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> Dunning-Kruger means when someone with little knowledge about a subject believes he is the expert on the subject. How the TB vaccine might actually protect is explained in the Science article - it traines the nonspecific immune response and enhances resistance to all kinds of infections, including viral infections such as yellow fever or (possibly) the coronavirus. It might also be important that the vaccine is given to newborns, because the immune system is shaped at an early age. I read that the BCG vaccine actually induces some epigenetic changes in the immune system. It is still being investigated.


As if this whole thread isn't one giant Dunning-Kruger thread? I didn't realize only experts were commenting on here. All I initially said was my skepticism that one might be related to another. After all, if vaccines were generally so broadly effective against numerous diseases, why do we need so many? The general assumption, I believe, is that a vaccine against a disease is really just effective against that disease. Are there other vaccines that protect against unrelated infections that make my initial comment so bizarre?


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> As if this whole thread isn't one giant Dunning-Kruger thread? I didn't realize only experts were commenting on here. All I initially said was my skepticism that one might be related to another. After all, if vaccines were generally so broadly effective against numerous diseases, why do we need so many? The general assumption, I believe, is that a vaccine against a disease is really just effective against that disease. Are there other vaccines that protect against unrelated infections that make my initial comment so bizarre?


It is not bizarre. I guess I was just a little irritated at the way you said it, like it is a complete impossibility. So peace :tiphat:


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

I have some science background, so I'm not ignorant on the subject. But I don't read science articles constantly.


----------



## Guest

As I've been away, it's interesting to start reading this thread from the perspective of 20 April. Sorry, I'm not going to read all 174 pages.

I'll just answer your question Ken, from a UK point of view.

Serious for those made seriously ill by the illness.
Serious for the families bereaved by the illness.
More serious than the 'flu' - estimated to be 10 times more serious in terms of mortality.
Serious for us all, given the impact on public health, public health services, each of those local communities affected either by the virus itself or by the lockdown.
Serious because of the challenge to the capabilities to our government, and to our democracy.
Serious because of the longer-term implications that have yet to unfold - health, well-being, social, economic, political.
Serious, because of the variable and in some cases divisive responses from different goverments and the implications for global cooperation.

I hope that this does resolve and the worst fears are not realised. I also hope that it serves as a wake-up call so that we are better prepared for the pandemic that has a much higher mortality rate (or turns us to zombies )


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I have some science background, so I'm not ignorant on the subject. But I don't read science articles constantly.


I have a relatively good knowledge of immunology, but I did not know about this effect of the BCG vaccine either. I learned about it only after someone presented it as an explanation why some countries are coping better with the coronavirus. The difference between the east and west germany is pretty telling








(google the map of former east germany, how well it correlates)
so the BCG vaccine seems a more plausible explanation to me, than that people in post-communist states better obey their leaders


----------



## KenOC

Shocking economic news: Oil is under $5. Wow.

Added: Now at $3.


----------



## Jacck

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke




some different perspective


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> Shocking economic news: Oil is under $5. Wow.
> 
> Added: Now at $3.


I have had the same tank of gas for a month. Still have a quarter of a tank left. Don't even know what the gas prices are here in Ohio.


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> For Charlie Kirk, Conservative Activist, the Virus Is a Cudgel
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/politics/charlie-kirk-conservatives-coronavirus.html
> I do not know what society should do about crooks like Mr. Kirk. There should be some sort of accountability, but how? *He can spew 100 lies a day, but it takes real effort to disprove just a single lie, and before it gets done, he spews more lies. Also, many people simply do not care for truth. *These people like Kirk, Limbaugh, Hannity etc. can lie and lie and lie. In normal life, one would simply smash their face for all their lies, in the past, these people of no honor would be challenged to a duel for their lies, but in modern media, they can lie to millions without shame and any accountability


Sounds like you're describing our President. He spews lies faster than they can be fact checked.

To refute just one lie takes time, and before you're done, there's been a half dozen more.



Jacck said:


> Why lockdowns are the wrong policy - Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke
> 
> º º
> 
> some different perspective


Yeah, people can go on about the best strategy all they want, but in the end, these strategies are just theories. We don't really know which would work better . . . herd effect, or lockdown.

In the end, in the Western World at least, lockdowns are impractical . . . some people just won't cooperate.


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> Sounds like you're describing our President. He spews lies faster than they can be fact checked.
> 
> To refute just one lie takes time, and before you're done, there's been a half dozen more.


it is not just your president, it is a whole new type affliction. Bannon called it "flood the zone with ******"
https://tinyurl.com/ycxk87kq

but the actual architects of this are the Russians, specifically Surkov
https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...thor-putinism-russia-vladislav-surkov/382489/



> Yeah, people can go on about the best strategy all they want, but in the end, these strategies are just theories. We don't really know which would work better . . . herd effect, or lockdown.
> In the end, in the Western World at least, lockdowns are impractical . . . some people just won't cooperate.


I listened to the interview with the swedish professor and I am not impressed. He says that lockdowns are not evidence based, but then makes some assumptions about the virus without any evidence either. He might be right, or he might be wrong. And if he is wrong, then many many people will die. Better stay on the safe side


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

I've been gone for the past 2 years - now that I find myself with a lot of extra time and not much to do but hang out on the internet, I decided to check back in.

Did the rules change? Is political discussion allowed again up here in the community forum? I see a lot of it here in this thread - still mostly liberals, I see. Good to see there is still "balance."


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I've been gone for the past 2 years - now that I find myself with a lot of extra time and not much to do but hang out on the internet, I decided to check back in.
> 
> Did the rules change? Is political discussion allowed again up here in the community forum? I see a lot of it here in this thread - still mostly liberals, I see. Good to see there is still "balance."


Welcome back.

Unfortunately, discussing the new coronavirus pandemic necessarily includes how it's been handled, which in the case of the US, seems to have been deliberately botched by those in charge.

They _knew_, but instead of telling us, bought and unloaded stocks based on that information.


----------



## erki

KenOC said:


> Shocking economic news: Oil is under $5. Wow.
> 
> Added: Now at $3.


I got news that if you buy US oil now you will be paid - it has dropped to negative.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Welcome back.
> 
> Unfortunately, discussing the new coronavirus pandemic necessarily includes how it's been handled, which in the case of the US, seems to have been deliberately botched by those in charge.
> 
> They _knew_, but instead of telling us, bought and unloaded stocks based on that information.


Who knew? 3 Senators?
Seems like most of the world was misled by China and the WHO until late January. And it didn't really become a big problem in the U.S. until March. I know everybody now claims Trump should have done more, but what things he did do were roundly criticized. He was criticized when he halted travel from China. He was criticized when he halted travel from Europe. I know everybody thinks he should have shut down the country sooner, but how would that have worked? Over 20 million are now out of work because of the shutdown. Do you really think people would have accepted a shutdown when the cases in the U.S. were counted only in the low hundreds? Not likely.

It seems, though, that the ventilator situation doomsday scenario didn't crystallize. He got criticized for not sending states all the ventilators they told him they needed. And good thing, too, or everyone would have gone to New York City. But there has yet to be a shortage. Everybody overestimated what they would need, and we never had that shortage.

The vast majority of cases in this country are highly isolated - New York City and New Jersey. I'm not going to blame that on liberals - NYC is a massive international hub. But for crying out loud - I've been in social distancing mode for 1 1/2 months now, and I see that only last week did they actually start telling people to wear masks on the NYC subway system!!!!! And then they bellyache about limited reopening of beaches in Florida!

Everybody deserves some blame here. Nobody has handled it well. Aside from the blame (richly deserved) for China, the rest of the world is dealing with something unprecedented. It is ridiculously hard to plan for unprecedented things. But I'm sure it is easier on the mind to pick a scapegoat like Trump on which to direct your anger.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Some of you on here need to lighten up - I mean, calling people hillbillies because in a time of uncertainty, when there is genuine fear, they want to be with loved ones? Whether or not it is smart, it is a genuine human instinct. And just the antipathy for anybody who doesn't feel exactly the way you do?
> 
> At some point this will be over - being as horrible to people around you at this time as you can will last longer than the virus does.


really? you appointed yourself the moral authority here?

did you even look up the definition?

indeed, some of you here do need to lighten up.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> What the crap is a Dunning-Kruger type comment?


is this any way to talk in these times?
At some point this will be over - being as horrible to people around you at this time as you can will last longer than the virus does.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> As if this whole thread isn't one giant Dunning-Kruger thread? I didn't realize only experts were commenting on here.


LOL, you are "special."

peace out, brother


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I've been gone for the past 2 years - now that I find myself with a lot of extra time and not much to do but hang out on the internet, I decided to check back in.
> 
> Did the rules change? Is political discussion allowed again up here in the community forum? I see a lot of it here in this thread - still mostly liberals, I see. Good to see there is still "balance."


More things to upset you?

You are a poster to remember.

I wish you the best.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Who knew? 3 Senators?
> 
> But I'm sure it is easier on the mind to pick a scapegoat like Trump on which to direct your anger.


Oh, it's not just three senators. We simply KNOW of three senators. And the President's family and friends. And the President, whose family has a stake in the company that manufactures the drug that the President has been hawking.

And don't forget, all of those 'others' you feel should shoulder the blame with Trump, relied on US Government information to determine how they should handle the pandemic on a state level. As Trump actually had intelligence on this as far back as November, and shared information from China and WHO in late December, his choice to belittle the virus' threat all through January and February is unpardonable.

As for it being difficult to "plan for unprecedented things", we had all the agencies and people in place, but Mr. Trump dismantled, fired, and cut funding way back in 2018. Trump has ignored the advice of experts, and chosen instead to go with his "gut".

Not only THAT, Trump has been advocating ending 'social distancing' after six of his most profitable Clubs and Hotels closed. I don't imagine that his hotels are doing all that well either, but I'm sure that the bailouts compensate his properties nicely.

In his unprecedented dual role as president and owner of a sprawling business, Trump is facing dual crises caused by the coronavirus. As he is trying to manage the pandemic from the White House, limiting its casualties as well as the economic fallout, his company is also navigating a major threat to the hospitality industry. That threatens to pull Trump in opposite directions, because the strategies that many scientists believe will help lessen the public emergency-like strict, long-lasting restrictions on movement-could deepen the short-term problems of Trump's private business, by keeping doors shut and customers away.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> really? you appointed yourself the moral authority here?
> 
> did you even look up the definition?
> 
> indeed, some of you here do need to lighten up.


You seem really pleasant. What definition are you referring to - hillbilly? Is it not synonymous with "dumb hick?" Is there some pleasant, complimentary use of the term I am unaware of? Granted I'm not from NYC. I grew up in California, now live in Ohio. Every place I've ever lived, hillbilly is not a nice thing to call someone.

Your tone seems generally angry. We are all stressed out right now. Lashing out at people isn't a particularly constructive way to make it through this crisis. For the likely greater than 99% of the global population that will likely survive this, we still need to live together. We can either try and be nice to one another now, or we'll have to do a whole hell of a lot of apologizing at the end of this to be invited back into polite society (whatever that looks like in the wake of social distancing).


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Oh, it's not just three senators. We simply KNOW of three senators. And the President's family and friends. And the President, whose family has a stake in the company that manufactures the drug that the President has been hawking.
> 
> And don't forget, all of those 'others' you feel should shoulder the blame with Trump, relied on US Government information to determine how they should handle the pandemic on a state level. As Trump actually had intelligence on this as far back as November, and shared information from China and WHO in late December, his choice to belittle the virus' threat all through January and February is unpardonable.
> 
> As for it being difficult to "plan for unprecedented things", we had all the agencies and people in place, but Mr. Trump dismantled, fired, and cut funding way back in 2018. Trump has ignored the advice of experts, and chosen instead to go with his "gut".
> 
> Not only THAT, Trump has been advocating ending 'social distancing' after six of his most profitable Clubs and Hotels closed. I don't imagine that his hotels are doing all that well either, but I'm sure that the bailouts compensate his properties nicely.
> 
> In his unprecedented dual role as president and owner of a sprawling business, Trump is facing dual crises caused by the coronavirus. As he is trying to manage the pandemic from the White House, limiting its casualties as well as the economic fallout, his company is also navigating a major threat to the hospitality industry. That threatens to pull Trump in opposite directions, because the strategies that many scientists believe will help lessen the public emergency-like strict, long-lasting restrictions on movement-could deepen the short-term problems of Trump's private business, by keeping doors shut and customers away.


There is a good book on conspiracy theories - can't remember the author, some British guy. I'll have to look it up. His basic idea is that we like to see conspiracies because the reality of life - that things like this can just happen in spite of all we do to prepare - is a whole hell of a lot scarier. It is easier on the mind to blame it on a few people, because you can punish a few people.

I'm not going to haggle every point - let's just stipulate you and I don't see eye to eye.

But there are some key FACTS that you have wrong, and that can't be left unchallenged. 
What did Trump know in November? We didn't start hearing things about this until December, and clear into January, all the information put out by the Chinese government and the WHO was that this was not a big problem, no evidence of human-to-human transmission - the WHO tweeted that out in mid-January. You really telling me that, had Trump gone against what the official position of the WHO was at that time and shutdown everything at that point - including all international flights into the U.S. - that the criticism wouldn't have been that Trump was "anti-science," an alarmist, a xenophobe, trying to stir up hatred against Asians? Please. As it was, when he did do those things later, he was still labeled a xenophobe trying to stir up hatred against Asians - remember how Nancy Pelosi went to San Francisco Chinatown after the ban on flights from China and encouraged people to flock there to show solidarity with Asian-Americans? Didn't she know better at that point?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> LOL, you are "special."
> 
> peace out, brother


We ARE all brothers and sisters, one common human family. Let's treat each other that way.


----------



## Guest

Donald Trump is responsible for all the ills in the world, and this includes Coronavirus!! Yes, it's true; if you listen to the hysterical and baying mob in the media you'll know that his supporters are some kind of 'deplorables' too. Simply replace the Russian fantasy with a new conspiracy and you get the picture. And these people call themselves "democrats". You couldn't make it up!!!


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We ARE all brothers and sisters, one common human family. Let's treat each other that way.


I actually see what you're trying to say here but, in fact, nothing could be further from the truth (and it gives me no pleasure to say so).


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We ARE all brothers and sisters, one common human family. Let's treat each other that way.


Imagine, if you were living in Germany in 1930 and some of your fellow countrymen were sympathizers of a certain leader and a certain party. No reasoning would be possible with them, you could only watch how they are destroying the whole country and the whole nation. Half of Americans likely feel that way about Trump and I must say not without justification.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> Imagine, if you were living in Germany in 1930 and some of your fellow countrymen were sympathizers of a certain leader and a certain party. No reasoning would be possible with them, you could only watch how they are destroying the whole country and the whole nation. Half of Americans likely feel that way about Trump and I must say not without justification.


Come on, I like your science posts here, but let's keep it sane. Trump as Hitler is the most unthought out idea since the last time a lefty accused a person they don't like of being a Nazi. Which is like, every minute of the day. Let's leave the partisan hyperbole on the side and try keep to the subject somehow. Seriously, it gets really boring watching TDS derail every discussion...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> Imagine, if you were living in Germany in 1930 and some of your fellow countrymen were sympathizers of a certain leader and a certain party. No reasoning would be possible with them, you could only watch how they are destroying the whole country and the whole nation. Half of Americans likely feel that way about Trump and I must say not without justification.


That is just absurd. I'm assuming you are basing that on biased opinions, given that you are there in the Czech Republic? The only things I see that bear resemblance to the authoritarian state in Germany in the 1930s are the petty tyrant governors trying to control people down to whether or not they can purchase seeds when they go to the store, and encouraging people to rat out their neighbors if they happen to be walking the dog by themselves, or taking a stroll through an empty park with their spouse.


----------



## Guest

Kieran said:


> Come on, I like your science posts here, but let's keep it sane. Trump as Hitler is the most unthought out idea since the last time a lefty accused a person they don't like of being a Nazi. Which is like, every minute of the day. Let's leave the partisan hyperbole on the side and try keep to the subject somehow. Seriously, it gets really boring watching TDS derail every discussion...


Yes, it's what Jordan Peterson calls "low resolution thinking"!!


----------



## Andrew Kenneth

Art Rock said:


> Top 10 deaths "west Europe" (basically west of the iron curtain)
> 
> Italy 23660
> Spain 20582
> France 19718
> UK 16060
> Belgium 5828
> Germany 4642
> Netherlands 3751
> Sweden 1580
> Switzerland 1406
> Portugal 735
> 
> Top 10 deaths "eastEurope" (basically east of the iron curtain +former Yugoslavia)
> 
> Russia 405
> Poland 362
> Hungary 199
> Czechia 188
> Ukraine 151
> Serbia 122
> Slovenia 77
> North Macedonia 54
> Bosnia and Herzegovina 49
> Croatia 47
> 
> The difference is indeed remarkable.


Scientists at Ghent university (Belgium) figured out why people in eastern europe are less prone to be afflicted by Covid 19.

It's all about the ACE1gen. The more people in a population possess the D-polymorphism of said gen the less people are prone to become infected and die by covid 19.

Since this D-polymorphism of the ACE1gen is prevalent amongst eastern europeans their low fatality rate can be explained by this.

newspaper article (in dutch) => https://www.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/waarom-coronavirus-veel-hogere-tol-eist-in-italie-dan-in-oost-europa-het-ligt-aan-mensen-die-er-wonen~ab231df5/

scientific article (in english) => https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102561/


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> Come on, I like your science posts here, but let's keep it sane. Trump as Hitler is the most unthought out idea since the last time a lefty accused a person they don't like of being a Nazi. Which is like, every minute of the day. Let's leave the partisan hyperbole on the side and try keep to the subject somehow. Seriously, it gets really boring watching TDS derail every discussion...


I am certainly not the only one who sees some parallels between current situation in the US and Germany
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/5/17940610/trump-hitler-history-historian



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> That is just absurd. I'm assuming you are basing that on biased opinions, given that you are there in the Czech Republic? The only things I see that bear resemblance to the authoritarian state in Germany in the 1930s are the petty tyrant governors trying to control people down to whether or not they can purchase seeds when they go to the store, and encouraging people to rat out their neighbors if they happen to be walking the dog by themselves, or taking a stroll through an empty park with their spouse.


do you really want to be on the same side with these types?




Personally, I would really start thinking about my own choices, if I were on the same side with such types



Christabel said:


> Yes, it's what Jordan Peterson calls "low resolution thinking"!!


I actually quite like Jordan Peterson. Most of what he says sounds reasonable. I never understood why the liberals hate him. BTW, do you know what Peterson thinks about Trump?


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> Better stay on the safe side


Precisely. This is what responsible governments do.


----------



## Jacck

Andrew Kenneth said:


> Scientists at Ghent university (Belgium) figured out why people in eastern europe are less prone to be afflicted by Covid 19.
> 
> It's all about the ACE1gen. The more people in a population possess the D-polymorphism of said gen the less people are prone to become infected and die by covid 19.
> 
> Since this D-polymorphism of the ACE1gen is prevalent amongst eastern europeans their low fatality rate can be explained by this.
> 
> newspaper article (in dutch) => https://www.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/waarom-coronavirus-veel-hogere-tol-eist-in-italie-dan-in-oost-europa-het-ligt-aan-mensen-die-er-wonen~ab231df5/
> 
> scientific article (in english) => https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102561/


interesting, thanks. So not a vaccine, but genetic polymorphism


----------



## Room2201974

"Go to the mirror boy. Go to the mirror boy!"

Characteristics of Fascist Regimes from Mussolini onward:

Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.

Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of “need.” The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.

Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.

Supremacy of the Military
Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.

Rampant Sexism
The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Opposition to abortion is high, as is homophobia and anti-gay legislation and national policy.

Controlled Mass Media
Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.

Obsession with National Security
Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses.

Religion and Government are Intertwined
Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government’s policies or actions.

Corporate Power is Protected
The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.

Labor Power is Suppressed
Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed .

Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts is openly attacked, and governments often refuse to fund the arts.

Obsession with Crime and Punishment
Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.

Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.

Fraudulent Elections
Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> interesting, thanks. So not a vaccine, but genetic polymorphism


Time will show if this is true. As far as I know the genes never heard about the iron curtain.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> I am certainly not the only one who sees some parallels between current situation in the US and Germany


It's not serious thinking, it's just bad faith tribalism. It exists on both sides, by the way, so I'm not only saying it's a lefty thing, but as an example, I've a beloved cousin in Canada who has called so many people she dislikes "Nazis" that it renders her view indiscernible from bigotry, while at the same time showing that she obviously didn't pay attention in school, when they taught her about real Nazis.

This resorting to calling people Nazis trivialises one of the most horrible regimes in modern history, in order to silence views we don't like. It's poisoning political discussion everywhere...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> I am certainly not the only one who sees some parallels between current situation in the US and Germany
> https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/5/17940610/trump-hitler-history-historian
> 
> do you really want to be on the same side with these types?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Personally, I would really start thinking about my own choices, if I were on the same side with such types
> 
> I actually quite like Jordan Peterson. Most of what he says sounds reasonable. I never understood why the liberals hate him. BTW, do you know what Peterson thinks about Trump?


Seriously? You find some video of neo-Nazis and ask if I want to be on the same side as them? And what were you thinking I would say? And are you saying all people who think like I do must also be neo-Nazis? I hope I don't have to explain that logical fallacy to you. You seem intelligent. Every political movement attracts fringe types. The Bernie Sanders campaign - especially back in 2016 - was supported by a nasty group known as "Bernie Bros" who were particularly misogynistic and attacked Hillary Clinton in particularly nasty ways. Can we extrapolate that Bernie Sanders supporters are all that way?

Let's not let our political biases cause us to make stupid assumptions about those with whom we disagree.

This virus is adding extra stress to everybody's lives, and combine that with being locked in, tensions are high. We have too much time on our hands and too little to do - as the saying goes, idle hands are the devil's playthings. I'm not going to criticize people who want to be with family, or who feel that a lot of these restrictions are ridiculous. I mean honestly - is it really necessary for some couple in Montana to stay at home? If I already have to go to Walmart, why can't I pick up some seeds? And usually this criticism is coming from journalists who reside in NYC, where I just learned the subway - an infectious disease incubator if there ever was one - have been running and nobody has been told to wear masks? Is it any wonder that people are pushing back?

I'm not going to judge people who are extra afraid of this virus, or people who are afraid of the extreme restrictions. Both have reasons to be justified in their feelings. I just hope we keep our humanity throughout this. Quit being mad at everybody - we are all in this together. Quit reporting people. We are all trying to cope as best we can.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> "Go to the mirror boy. Go to the mirror boy!"
> 
> Characteristics of Fascist Regimes from Mussolini onward:
> 
> Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
> Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.
> 
> Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
> Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.
> 
> Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
> The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.
> 
> Supremacy of the Military
> Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.
> 
> Rampant Sexism
> The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Opposition to abortion is high, as is homophobia and anti-gay legislation and national policy.
> 
> Controlled Mass Media
> Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.
> 
> Obsession with National Security
> Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses.
> 
> Religion and Government are Intertwined
> Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions.
> 
> Corporate Power is Protected
> The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.
> 
> Labor Power is Suppressed
> Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed .
> 
> Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
> Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts is openly attacked, and governments often refuse to fund the arts.
> 
> Obsession with Crime and Punishment
> Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.
> 
> Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
> Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.
> 
> Fraudulent Elections
> Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.


This is just getting ridiculous.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Andrew Kenneth said:


> Scientists at Ghent university (Belgium) figured out why people in eastern europe are less prone to be afflicted by Covid 19.
> 
> It's all about the ACE1gen. The more people in a population possess the D-polymorphism of said gen the less people are prone to become infected and die by covid 19.
> 
> Since this D-polymorphism of the ACE1gen is prevalent amongst eastern europeans their low fatality rate can be explained by this.
> 
> newspaper article (in dutch) => https://www.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/waarom-coronavirus-veel-hogere-tol-eist-in-italie-dan-in-oost-europa-het-ligt-aan-mensen-die-er-wonen~ab231df5/
> 
> scientific article (in english) => https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102561/


That's interesting. Also makes sense, given how Eastern Europe was isolated from Western Europe for a couple of generations, so it would have been more concentrated there without mixing of the gene pools. But that also is a really short period of time for such a characteristic to be so widespread. Do they know if it is more prevalent in Slavic populations, which seem to be concentrated in Eastern Europe? Is it also prevalent in Hungarians (non-Slavic Eastern European)?

I heard on the radio some anecdotal evidence from Europe - might have been the UK? - that doctors were seeing good results from sleeping COVID patients on their stomachs - higher survival rates. Not a study or anything, just anecdotal. Anybody else hear that? Still trying to figure out what that would necessarily do.


----------



## Room2201974

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> This is just getting ridiculous.


Yes, yes, the characteristics of fascism in history have been found to be so ridiculous! You must have used a different world history book than I did in school.


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I heard on the radio some anecdotal evidence from Europe - might have been the UK? - that doctors were seeing good results from sleeping COVID patients on their stomachs - higher survival rates. Not a study or anything, just anecdotal. Anybody else hear that? Still trying to figure out what that would necessarily do.


Yeah, I read about this:

"Doctors are finding that placing the sickest coronavirus patients on their stomachs -- called prone positioning - helps increase the amount of oxygen that's getting to their lungs."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-prone-positioning/index.html


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Donald Trump is responsible for all the ills in the world, and this includes Coronavirus!! Yes, it's true; if you listen to the hysterical and baying mob in the media you'll know that his supporters are some kind of 'deplorables' too. Simply replace the Russian fantasy with a new conspiracy and you get the picture. And these people call themselves "democrats". You couldn't make it up!!!


So you're from Australia. What makes you think you're expert on our politics. You can feel free to spout an agenda when you come over here and become a citizen. Until you do, just stuff it. And I am a registered Republican.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> So you're from Australia. What makes you think you're expert on our politics. You can feel free to spout an agenda when you come over here and become a citizen. Until you do, just stuff it. And I am a registered Republican.


Didn't I remember reading you hadn't voted for a republican for president since at least 2000?

And Jacck is from the Czech Republic. You also going to criticize his characterizations of American politics?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> Yes, yes, the characteristics of fascism in history have been found to be so ridiculous! You must have used a different world history book than I did in school.


Oh, I have read plenty of books on early-mid 20th century European history. I also know that American progressives liked FDR were in love with Mussolini and wanted to implement some of his policies up until WWII.

Right now, Governor Whitmer in Michigan and Mayor diBlasio in NYC are exhibiting the most fascistic behavior in this country.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> Yeah, I read about this:
> 
> "Doctors are finding that placing the sickest coronavirus patients on their stomachs -- called prone positioning - helps increase the amount of oxygen that's getting to their lungs."
> 
> https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-prone-positioning/index.html


I hope it works. I hope hydroxychloroquine works. I hope remdesivir works. Hell, if the TB vaccine can significantly help, I'm all for it. Anything to give us an upper hand against this damn virus.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Didn't I remember reading you hadn't voted for a republican for president since at least 2000? And Jacck is from the Czech Republic. You also going to criticize his characterizations of American politics?


Your memory is faulty. I supported George Bush through the Iraq War. Jacck is reasonably respectful and has a moderate perspective, not to mention having taken part in a lot of discussions lately as opposed to someone popping in with occasional sniper shots. In any event, what's it to you? You've been MIA for 2 years and don't appear to have a clue. Your only apparent reason for being on the forum is to stir up trouble in groups. When did you ever post anything on CM?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Your memory is faulty. I supported George Bush through the Iraq War. Jacck is reasonably respectful and has a moderate perspective, not to mention having taken part in a lot of discussions lately as opposed to someone popping in with occasional sniper shots. In any event, what's it to you? You've been MIA for 2 years and don't appear to have a clue.


Interesting that Jacck's politics seem moderate to you. Okay.

But you voted for Kerry? And Obama twice? And I'm guessing Hillary?

At any rate, why do you say I don't appear to have a clue? Because I'm suggesting we should be nicer to one another and have actually voted for a Republican recently?


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> There is a good book on conspiracy theories - can't remember the author, some British guy. I'll have to look it up. His basic idea is that we like to see conspiracies because the reality of life - that things like this can just happen in spite of all we do to prepare - is a whole hell of a lot scarier. It is easier on the mind to blame it on a few people, because you can punish a few people.
> 
> I'm not going to haggle every point - let's just stipulate you and I don't see eye to eye.
> 
> But there are some key FACTS that you have wrong, and that can't be left unchallenged.
> What did Trump know in November? We didn't start hearing things about this until December, and clear into January, all the information put out by the Chinese government and the WHO was that this was not a big problem, no evidence of human-to-human transmission - the WHO tweeted that out in mid-January. You really telling me that, had Trump gone against what the official position of the WHO was at that time and shutdown everything at that point - including all international flights into the U.S. - that the criticism wouldn't have been that Trump was "anti-science," an alarmist, a xenophobe, trying to stir up hatred against Asians? Please. As it was, when he did do those things later, he was still labeled a xenophobe trying to stir up hatred against Asians - remember how Nancy Pelosi went to San Francisco Chinatown after the ban on flights from China and encouraged people to flock there to show solidarity with Asian-Americans? Didn't she know better at that point?


I can clearly see the color of the butter you put on your bread from here. You are clearly ignoring reports that are contrary to what you already believe to be true.

Our government has eight people IN the WHO, and they DID try to warn us, but the President ignored the warnings, even going so far as to label it a "Democrat hoax".

It's especially evident when you bring up Trump talking points about Pelosi to try to excuse Trump's years of xenophobic, racist, bigoted, misogynistic and homophobic words and deeds. You're using the "Yeah, but . . . " argument, and it smells like a wet dog.

:scold:

So, _yes_, *November*. It took me 5 seconds to Google it:

*'The US Knew': Report Says American Intel on Threat of Coronavirus Was Shared With Israel and NATO in November, Dismissed by Trump*
*"The smoking gun has arrived."*
Friday, April 17, 2020

An Israeli news report on Thursday revealed that the country was told in November by U.S. intelligence about the potential threat of the coronavirus-warnings that were also made to NATO and to the White House-a clear contradiction of Pentagon claims last week that no such report existed.

"The smoking gun has arrived," tweeted Joel Rubin, a former aide to the presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The information reportedly came from U.S. intelligence monitoring of internal Chinese communications that revealed the potential danger of the outbreak before it was publicly known.

The Times of Israel reported that U.S. intelligence agencies were aware of the disease as early as the second week of November and shared the information with President Donald Trump's White House, NATO, and Israel. The U.S. administration did not deem the report "of interest" while Israeli officials discussed the possibility of the threat but ultimately took no action. What NATO's response was to the report-if any-is thus far unknown.

Reporting on April 8 from ABC News revealed the existence of a November report by the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) on the potential of a pandemic from the Wuhan outbreak.

According to ABC News:

_The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia-forces that depend on the NCMI's work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.
_

The Pentagon told ABC News on April 8 that no such report from the NCMI existed, but Thursday's news could appear to contradict that denial-though it is unclear if the two reports were the same or just contemporaneous.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2...threat-coronavirus-was-shared-israel-and-nato


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> So you're from Australia. What makes you think you're expert on our politics. You can feel free to spout an agenda when you come over here and become a citizen. Until you do, just stuff it. And I am a registered Republican.


As it happens I read very widely and not just the luvvie media with fake news; books. Ferguson, Haidt, Pinker, Sowell, Douglas Murray and well as HEAPS of political podcasts (Joe Rogan, The Rubin Report et. al). I don't have an agenda but call it as I see it based on the views of very well educated commentators. Without exception all speak about Trump Derangement Syndrome (see some of Sowell's interviews on U-Tube - an African American fed up to the back teeth with victim culture) etc. etc. But much easier to insult than argue. It's a tic for some people. This is just one of many online magazines I read regularly and it carries pro-Trump and anti-Trump articles:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/02/04/the-real-winner-in-iowa-donald-trump/


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Interesting that Jacck's politics seem moderate to you. Okay.
> 
> But you voted for Kerry? And Obama twice? And I'm guessing Hillary?
> 
> At any rate, why do you say I don't appear to have a clue? Because I'm suggesting we should be nicer to one another and have actually voted for a Republican recently?


I supported McCain. Still my voting record is none of your business. You come in here after several weeks of this thread which has had a lot of ups and downs. We've gotten to know most contributors fairly well and there's been a lot of useful information. What makes you think you are now some sort of moderator. (And I don't care who you've voted for recently.) You've had no presence here anywhere.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Shocking economic news: Oil is under $5. Wow.
> 
> Added: Now at $3.


And I looked later, and it was down to 70¢ a barrel.

Now it's at down to almost *-$40*. That's _*negative*_ $40; *minus $40*.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> I can clearly see the color of the butter you put on your bread from here. You are clearly ignoring reports that are contrary to what you already believe to be true.
> 
> Our government has eight people IN the WHO, and they DID try to warn us, but the President ignored the warnings, even going so far as to label it a "Democrat hoax".
> 
> It's especially evident when you bring up Trump talking points about Pelosi to try to excuse Trump's years of xenophobic, racist, bigoted, misogynistic and homophobic words and deeds. You're using the "Yeah, but . . . " argument, and it smells like a wet dog.
> 
> :scold:
> 
> So, _yes_, *November*. It took me 5 seconds to Google it:
> 
> *'The US Knew': Report Says American Intel on Threat of Coronavirus Was Shared With Israel and NATO in November, Dismissed by Trump*
> *"The smoking gun has arrived."*
> Friday, April 17, 2020
> 
> An Israeli news report on Thursday revealed that the country was told in November by U.S. intelligence about the potential threat of the coronavirus-warnings that were also made to NATO and to the White House-a clear contradiction of Pentagon claims last week that no such report existed.
> 
> "The smoking gun has arrived," tweeted Joel Rubin, a former aide to the presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
> 
> The information reportedly came from U.S. intelligence monitoring of internal Chinese communications that revealed the potential danger of the outbreak before it was publicly known.
> 
> The Times of Israel reported that U.S. intelligence agencies were aware of the disease as early as the second week of November and shared the information with President Donald Trump's White House, NATO, and Israel. The U.S. administration did not deem the report "of interest" while Israeli officials discussed the possibility of the threat but ultimately took no action. What NATO's response was to the report-if any-is thus far unknown.
> 
> Reporting on April 8 from ABC News revealed the existence of a November report by the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) on the potential of a pandemic from the Wuhan outbreak.
> 
> According to ABC News:
> 
> _The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia-forces that depend on the NCMI's work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.
> _
> 
> The Pentagon told ABC News on April 8 that no such report from the NCMI existed, but Thursday's news could appear to contradict that denial-though it is unclear if the two reports were the same or just contemporaneous.
> 
> https://www.commondreams.org/news/2...threat-coronavirus-was-shared-israel-and-nato


Well nothing had changed around here. Express anything but the received liberal"wisdom" on here and the leftists swarm. Oh well, too much in the world already stresses me. The disapproval of anonymous people on the internet doesn't rank very high. I've heard all your talking points as well. I'm not familiar with the source you cited there, but I know that report had been denied, and one of the quotes in your article comes from a former Sanders aide. I'll just nod my head and wish you a good day.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I supported McCain. Still my voting record is none of your business. You come in here after several weeks of this thread which has had a lot of ups and downs. We've gotten to know most contributors fairly well and there's been a lot of useful information. What makes you think you are now some sort of moderator. (And I don't care who you've voted for recently.) You've had no presence here anywhere.


Therefore what? I can't participate? That how it is here? Talk classical aristocracy? Not welcome in your gated community? No outsiders (especially if they don't agree with you)?

I'm not a moderator. Where did I give the impression I thought I was? Because I thought calling people hillbillies was not polite? Given the response I got to that, it seems to have validated my comment.


----------



## Room2201974

Dup, Dup, Dup, Dup of Earl
Dup, Dup, Dup of Earl
Dup, Dup, Dup of Earl
Dup, Dup, Dup of Earl

Dup, Dup, Dup of Earl
Dup, Dup, Dup of Earl
Dup, Dup, Dup of Earl
Dup, Dup, Dup of Earl

As I walk through this world
Nothing can stop the Dup of Earl
And-a you, you are my girl
And no one can hurt you, oh no

Yes-a, I, oh I'm gonna love you, oh oh
Come on let me hold you darlin'
'Cause I'm the Dup of Earl
So hey yea yea yeah


----------



## eljr

DaveM said:


> I supported McCain. Still my voting record is none of your business. You come in here after several weeks of this thread which has had a lot of ups and downs. We've gotten to know most contributors fairly well and there's been a lot of useful information. What makes you think you are now some sort of moderator. (And I don't care who you've voted for recently.) You've had no presence here anywhere.


The guy is more than a self appointed moderator and has fought with several posters in this thread already.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I'm not a moderator. Where did I give the impression I thought I was? Because I thought calling people hillbillies was not polite? Given the response I got to that, it seems to have validated my comment.


Did you go after the wrong poster in your comeback? Yes, it appears you did.

BTW, my neighbors are still hillbillies and they would tell you that.

My humble advise as I am not a mod as you seem to think you are, start over. You were way out of line when you came to this thread. Just forget it and move forward in harmony.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> Did you go after the wrong poster in your comeback? Yes, it appears you did.
> 
> BTW, my neighbors are still hillbillies and they would tell you that.
> 
> My humble advise as I am not a mod as you seem to think you are, start over. You were way out of line when you came to this thread. Just forget it and move forward in harmony.


Mmhmm. I'll likely take that under advisement and post as I will. But have a good day.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> The guy is more than a self appointed moderator and has fought with several posters in this thread already.


I haven't fought with anybody. But you all were drawn to me like moths to light as soon as I posted, particularly if it was in any way not hateful to the president. It seems like this thread is as much about discussing the virus as a round robin of who can denounce Trump the most vehemently. And I've interrupted your fun.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I haven't fought with anybody. But you all were drawn to me like moths to light as soon as I posted, particularly if it was in any way not hateful to the president. It seems like this thread is as much about discussing the virus as a round robin of who can denounce Trump the most vehemently. And I've interrupted your fun.


dude, drop it, start over, i told you

it's a great site, a very good thread


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> As it happens I read very widely and not just the luvvie media with fake news; books. Ferguson, Haidt, Pinker, Sowell, Douglas Murray and well as HEAPS of political podcasts (Joe Rogan, The Rubin Report et. al). I don't have an agenda but call it as I see it based on the views of very well educated commentators. Without exception all speak about Trump Derangement Syndrome (see some of Sowell's interviews on U-Tube - an African American fed up to the back teeth with victim culture) etc. etc. But much easier to insult than argue. It's a tic for some people. This is just one of many online magazines I read regularly and it carries pro-Trump and anti-Trump articles:
> 
> https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/02/04/the-real-winner-in-iowa-donald-trump/


You have enough to worry about in your own country without your thinking you know everything about mine. Nobody is butting into your politics.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> dude, drop it, start over, i told you
> 
> it's a great site, a very good thread


Yeah, and you've had a chip on your shoulder ever since I said it was rude to call people hillbillies and get mad at them for the human desire to be with family during a scary and uncertain time. The gatekeepers of the thread have been riding my butt ever since.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> You have enough to worry about in your own country without your thinking you know everything about mine. Nobody is butting into your politics.


How about everybody just stops bringing politics into it period? Oh wait, am I being a moderator?


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Therefore what? I can't participate? That how it is here? Talk classical aristocracy? Not welcome in your gated community? No outsiders (especially if they don't agree with you)?
> 
> I'm not a moderator. Where did I give the impression I thought I was? Because I thought calling people hillbillies was not polite? Given the response I got to that, it seems to have validated my comment.


If you had read much of this thread, you would have seen that, by far, it's been on the subject of the OP and not politics. You come in as if you are some sort of moderator and any other of your comments are political. Have you got something to say of interest regarding the OP?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> If you had read much of this thread, you would have seen that, by far, it's been on the subject of the OP and not politics. You come in as if you are some sort of moderator and any other of your comments are political. Have you got something to say of interest regarding the OP?


First, I have posted comments specific to the OP. Second, I believe that talking about how people are responding to the virus, and to each other, is relevant to the topic. Third, I am not the one who brought up politics first.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> First, I have posted comments specific to the OP. Second, I believe that talking about how people are responding to the virus, and to each other, is relevant to the topic. Third, I am not the one who brought up politics first.


Go back and read your posts. You provoked everyone you interacted with. Exercise a little introspection.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Go back and read your posts. You provoked everyone you interacted with. Exercise a little introspection.


Look, you all want to make me your scapegoat. There are a ton more political posts on here from others than from me SINCE I joined in today. I've been talking about the science as well, but even in that I was attacked right away because I voiced confusion about how an unrelated vaccine could help. It wasn't even a criticism of anybody.

So I upset you all when I say people should be nicer and lighten up in this stressful time. I get attacked and piled on when I talk about the science. Not even arguing about three science, just musing out loud what relationship a bacterial vaccine could have to a viral infection. And my first political content was to say I didn't think politics was supposed to be here in the community forum, and the response to that was a diatribe against Trump by another member.

So yeah, it does really feel like you all have your gated community and attack all newcomers.


----------



## KenOC

Regarding pianozach’s post concerning Trump ignoring a pandemic warning in mid-November. 

The source, commondreams.org, doesn’t seem a very neutral site. It lists as a related article, “Trump and the GOP Don't Care About Your Grandchildren.” What a cad he must be! :lol:

The story here is based on an Israeli newspaper report based in turn on an Israeli TV report. No evidence is offered besides the usual anonymous sources, but there is said to have been an NCMI report. The American authorities respond, “As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters. However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists.”

In any event, what was “known” in early November is never made clear in the article. It was known even earlier that the Wuhan virology lab was working with a coronavirus infecting horseshoe bats from Yunnan province, but I’ve heard of nothing more than that. Even the Wuhan medical people started getting a glimpse of a cluster only in very late December. Did we know earlier that a new and highly contagious coronavirus had escaped into the general population? If so, how reliable was that information deemed? Note also that not only did we ignore this supposed “information,” but so did Israel and NATO. That makes them all idiots, right?

In any event, you don’t burn down the henhouse every time some neighbor calls to say they think they hear a fox in it. And finally, how serious was it likely to be? Last time around with a coronavirus it was SARS in 2004, which killed worldwide (wait for it) 774 people. I’d wager that more people were killed during that epidemic by having their refrigerators fall on them.

BTW Wiki has this to say about the disease’s origins. “The earliest known person with symptoms was later discovered to have fallen ill on 1 December 2019, and that person did not have visible connections with the later wet market cluster.”


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> ... Last time around with a coronavirus it was SARS in 2004, which killed worldwide (wait for it) 774 people. I'd wager that more people were killed during that epidemic by having their refrigerators fall on them...


People tend to get a little upset when a new disease (SARS) spreads rapidly with no specific treatment other than separation of patients and which kills over half of people over 65 it infects. On the other hand, while the scourge of refrigerators falling on people during that time unfortunately tended to kill children more than big people, the epidemic was rapidly brought under control by chaining said refrigerators to the wall.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> Regarding pianozach's post concerning Trump ignoring a pandemic warning in mid-November.
> 
> The source, commondreams.org, doesn't seem a very neutral site. It lists as a related article, "Trump and the GOP Don't Care About Your Grandchildren." What a cad he must be! :lol:
> 
> The story here is based on an Israeli newspaper report based in turn on an Israeli TV report. No evidence is offered besides the usual anonymous sources, but there is said to have been an NCMI report. The American authorities respond, "As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters. However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists."
> 
> In any event, what was "known" in early November is never made clear in the article. It was known even earlier that the Wuhan virology lab was working with a coronavirus infecting horseshoe bats from Yunnan province, but I've heard of nothing more than that. Even the Wuhan medical people started getting a glimpse of a cluster only in very late December. Did we know earlier that a new and highly contagious coronavirus had escaped into the general population? If so, how reliable was that information deemed? Note also that not only did we ignore this supposed "information," but so did Israel and NATO. That makes them all idiots, right?
> 
> In any event, you don't burn down the henhouse every time some neighbor calls to say they think they hear a fox in it. And finally, how serious was it likely to be? Last time around with a coronavirus it was SARS in 2004, which killed worldwide (wait for it) 774 people. I'd wager that more people were killed during that epidemic by having their refrigerators fall on them.
> 
> BTW Wiki has this to say about the disease's origins. "The earliest known person with symptoms was later discovered to have fallen ill on 1 December 2019, and that person did not have visible connections with the later wet market cluster."


Actually, we have had two coronavirus outbreaks before this one. The SARS outbreak that infected about 8000 and killed 800 worldwide, and the MERS outbreak that had infected 2500 and killed just under 900 since 2012. So while those ones had high mortality rates, nothing about them suggested what we are now seeing with COVID-19 to make anybody think we needed to shutdown the global economy and stockpile ventilators.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Actually, we have had two coronavirus outbreaks before this one. The SARS outbreak that infected about 8000 and killed 800 worldwide, and the MERS outbreak that had infected 2500 and killed just under 900 since 2012. So while those ones had high mortality rates, nothing about them suggested what we are now seeing with COVID-19 to make anybody think we needed to shutdown the global economy and stockpile ventilators.


Yep. SARS and MERS were both deadly, but not terribly infectious.

COVID-19, seems to be very infectious, and about 20X more deadly than the common flu.

Since testing was never widely available except to those exhibiting symptoms and sometimes limited to those that could confirm contact with others that had already tested positive (plus a few assorted rich people), we actually don't know what the infection rate actually is. I will say that if we DID know this, the mortality rate would be far less.

But we haven't had widespread testing, nor will we. Not gonna happen.


----------



## KenOC

pianozach said:


> Yep. SARS and MERS were both deadly, but not terribly infectious.
> 
> COVID-19, seems to be very infectious, and about 20X more deadly than the common flu.
> 
> Since testing was never widely available except to those exhibiting symptoms and sometimes limited to those that could confirm contact with others that had already tested positive (plus a few assorted rich people), we actually don't know what the infection rate actually is. I will say that if we DID know this, the mortality rate would be far less.
> 
> But we haven't had widespread testing, nor will we. Not gonna happen.


"The actual number of infections from COVID-19 in Los Angeles County may be as high as 55 times the current number of confirmed positive cases, according to preliminary results from antibody tests conducted as part of a joint venture between the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health."


----------



## arpeggio

*Sally Jenkins Editorial*

I find it discouraging that there are some who disparage The Washington Post or the New York Times or CNN or whatever but a fountain of truth is Fox Noise.

The author of the editorial I had mentioned is a Sports Writer, Sally Jenkins.

I have converted the editorial to a pdf file and attached it.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

arpeggio said:


> I find it discouraging that there are some who disparage The Washington Post or the New York Times or CNN or whatever but a fountain of truth is Fox Noise.
> 
> The author of the editorial I had mentioned is a Sports Writer, Sally Jenkins.
> 
> I have converted the editorial to a pdf file and attached it.


This is her opening paragraph


> The sentiment has been mouthed by every fool from Dr. Oz to the Cheetos*dusted flim* flam man in the Oval Office: Rather than damage the economy further, we must accept a certain number of novel coronavirus casualties so the rest of us can go back to restau* rants and football games. It's a false moral equation and a false choice. And the people putting it forward smack of panic.


She talks about false moral equations and false choices. What about the straw men she's constructs? We aren't talking about here damaged to the economy. We are talking about crashing it. We are talking about potentially the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression, if not worse. 22 million jobs lost in 3 weeks. She thinks people are upset about restaurants and football games? That is just plain stupid. We have something serious going on. People have either lost their jobs or don't know if there job will still be there tomorrow. Many have been locked down in their houses for weeks. Them some tin pot dictator goes on TV and tells your fellow citizens that if they see you violating their police State crackdowns they should snap a picture and inform on you, turning neighbors into enemies, guaranteed to show mistrust among people. If you and your spouse to for a walk and the cops come and cite you, which neighbor do you think turned you into the Stasi? And if you go to the store for supplies, you better not even think of picking up seeds or paint to have something too do while you are locked down.
She starts her editorial with insults and insulting straw men. I have no desire to read further.


----------



## KenOC

arpeggio said:


> I find it discouraging that there are some who disparage The Washington Post or the New York Times or CNN or whatever but a fountain of truth is Fox Noise...


Unfortunately, both the Washington Post and New York Times have long since adopted Fox News's definition of "fair and balanced" reporting. A shame.


----------



## arpeggio

I have seen the interviews of people who are protesting the various shutdowns. I recall one genius from Iowa who stated that in order to save the economy we would have to accept the deaths of many of our citizens. Of course he also stated that he knows his health is good and he would be immune to the virus. I actually heard one protestor in an interview, who appeared to be about fifty, that it is was OK for the seniors to die from the virus because they are going to die anyway. I did not hear everything he said because I got so mad I turned off the TV. I hear protestors say nonsense like this all of the time.


----------



## arpeggio

Of course I do not agree with everything I read in the Washington Post. But for everything that the Post says that pisses me off, Fox says a least a dozen.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

arpeggio said:


> I have seen the interviews of people who are protesting the various shutdowns. I recall one genius from Iowa who stated that in order to save the economy we would have to accept the deaths of many of our citizens. Of course he also stated that he knows his health is good and he would be immune to the virus. I actually heard one protestor in an interview, who appeared to be about fifty, that it is was OK for the seniors to die from the virus because they are going to die anyway. I did not hear everything he said because I got so mad I turned off the TV. I hear protestors say nonsense like this all of the time.


It's easy to judge an entire group based on the few people selected by the news source to match the narrative they want to put out there. Foxx News picks those that further their narrative, and so do the others. It's called confirmation bias. You establish your conclusion up front, then go find the sources that confirm it. And both sides tend to judge the other side by their most fringe elements.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

arpeggio said:


> Of course I do not agree with everything I read in the Washington Post. But for everything that the Post says that pisses me off, Fox says a least a dozen.


Fine. But against Fox News you have arrayed CNN, MSNBC, NPR, the New York Times editorial board (I actually like their straight reporting), and really the vast majority of other news sources that spread plenty of their own falsehoods from a decisively liberal point of view. And even when their mistakes are honest mistakes, they are still almost always won't in one particular direction. But yeah. Let's point out that one right-leaning news source. But really, you probably just have issues with the editorial shows on Fox News. Their straight up news reporting, while definitely having a right lean, is pretty accurate.


----------



## arpeggio

Of course the majority of Americans do not believe in this nonsense. I know of and heard many conservatives like Andrew Sullivan, David Frum, Steven Schmit and many others who do not feel this way. But I would not be surprised if 20 to 30% of Americans do.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Fine. But against Fox News you have arrayed CNN, MSNBC, NPR, the New York Times editorial board (I actually like their straight reporting), and really the vast majority of other news sources that spread plenty of their own falsehoods from a decisively liberal point of view. And even when their mistakes are honest mistakes, they are still almost always won't in one particular direction. But yeah. Let's point out that one right-leaning news source. But really, you probably just have issues with the editorial shows on Fox News. Their straight up news reporting, while definitely having a right lean, is pretty accurate.


I've followed Fox for years. It was the main news channel I watched during the G. Bush era. During that time the news anchors had more influence than the opinion hosts although Bill O'Reilly was a major force albeit not far right. Now it is strongly reversed. Shepard Smith left because he couldn't stand the growing influence of Hannity and Tucker who were now Trump's right hand men. Chris Wallace is the last truly independent journalist with substance and credibility. Britt Hume while semi-retired could still have influence, but he wants nothing to do with Trump and so is largely MIA. Neil Cavuto is a good man and hanging in there.

That's largely it. Hannity speaks and Fox trembles. Trump doesn't have to worry about running out of TP with Hannity always at the ready. Fox and Friends are a pathetic joke.


----------



## Jacck

premont said:


> Time will show if this is true. As far as I know the genes never heard about the iron curtain.


Europe is a mixture of 4 tribes - the original Celts, Romanic tribes, Germanic tribes and Slavic tribes. You can do various genetic analyses to find out your ancestry. They did an analysis in Czech Republic and found out that we are 1/3 Celts, 1/3 Slavs and 1/3 Germans. The Celts lived here originally before the German migration and were assimilated, and we live in a territory at the border of the Germanic and Slavic tribes, so some mixing is to be expected. Various haplotypes define various haplogroups. If fact things such as genetic polymorphisms or various genes are used to define the various haplogroups. So it is quite possible that the Slavs have some genetic polymorphism of the AC receptor that the virus uses to enter the cells


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Didn't I remember reading you hadn't voted for a republican for president since at least 2000?
> 
> And Jacck is from the Czech Republic. You also going to criticize his characterizations of American politics?


Americans do that too. You too have opinions about the EU, about Russia, about China, about Middle East. Do I really need to live in Russia to know that the current regime there is a fascist one? Or that China is a totalitarian society? America is the leader of the world and English is the international language, so you should not be surprised, that people around the world follow American politics to some degree (you would be surprised how much students in China know about the US and Europe, while you know almost nothing about their country). Having an outside perspective can even help you be a little more objective.


----------



## senza sordino




----------



## Kieran

senza sordino said:


>


If they add another three weeks here in Ireland on May 5th, that'll reduce itself to bed, fridge, toilet. :lol:


----------



## Sad Al

Overweight is a bigger risk factor in this disease than smoking. Let's take US for example. Americans have decreased their smoking a lot, which has made them fatter than ever. One look at American reality TV shows proves that.

I am slightly overweight too. Should I start smoking? Should governments give free cigarettes to citizens until COVID-19 crisis is over?


----------



## Jacck

arpeggio said:


> I have seen the interviews of people who are protesting the various shutdowns. I recall one genius from Iowa who stated that in order to save the economy we would have to accept the deaths of many of our citizens. Of course he also stated that he knows his health is good and he would be immune to the virus. I actually heard one protestor in an interview, who appeared to be about fifty, that it is was OK for the seniors to die from the virus because they are going to die anyway. I did not hear everything he said because I got so mad I turned off the TV. I hear protestors say nonsense like this all of the time.


yes, they are willing to sacrifice some people, as long as it is someone else doing the dying. I would like to see these people going to the first line and care for the sick people at the hospitals without PPE. Then I would be conviced that they are serious. And it is not only seniors. There are quite a few younger people with underlying conditions such as diabetes, asthma, various disorders of immunity. Even if the true mortality is 0.3% (which I believe), you are looking at 1 million dead Americans, and not just the seniors.


----------



## Jacck

Sad Al said:


> Overweight is a bigger risk factor in this disease than smoking. Let's take US for example. Americans have decreased their smoking a lot, which has made them fatter than ever. One look at American reality TV shows proves that.
> 
> I am slightly overweight too. Should I start smoking? Should governments give free cigarettes to citizens until COVID-19 crisis is over?


I just read that Kim Jong Un might possibly be dead. The fat little rocket man.


----------



## mountmccabe

arpeggio said:


> I have seen the interviews of people who are protesting the various shutdowns. I recall one genius from Iowa who stated that in order to save the economy we would have to accept the deaths of many of our citizens. Of course he also stated that he knows his health is good and he would be immune to the virus. I actually heard one protestor in an interview, who appeared to be about fifty, that it is was OK for the seniors to die from the virus because they are going to die anyway. I did not hear everything he said because I got so mad I turned off the TV. I hear protestors say nonsense like this all of the time.





arpeggio said:


> Of course the majority of Americans do not believe in this nonsense. I know of and heard many conservatives like Andrew Sullivan, David Frum, Steven Schmit and many others who do not feel this way. But I would not be surprised if 20 to 30% of Americans do.


This polling puts it at around 20%, depending on the specific bit of nonsense.

"the overwhelming majority of Americans are supportive of state stay-at-home orders and are making an effort to stay home themselves. Most respondents say that they'd continue to stay home even with no limitations in place. And far more are concerned about states reopening too quickly than taking too long to do so."

"In four surveys over the past month, the share of Americans staying home has remained between 86% and 89%, and the share supporting states' decisions to issue stay-at-home orders has stayed between 77% and 81%."

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/poll-coronavirus-stay-home-reopen-protests_n_5e9e1803c5b63c5b58734c96


----------



## Sad Al

Jacck said:


> I just read that Kim Jong Un might possibly be dead. The fat little rocket man.


Isn't Trump a fat little rocket man too? How tall is he


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> It's easy to judge an entire group based on the few people selected by the news source to match the narrative they want to put out there. Foxx News picks those that further their narrative, and so do the others. It's called confirmation bias. You establish your conclusion up front, then go find the sources that confirm it. And both sides tend to judge the other side by their most fringe elements.


this kind of making "news" annoys me. They present some news, but invite various pundits to interpret it for you. It is not just Fox News, but also the liberal media in the US. There is one especially comical pundit on Fox News called Dan Bongino. He looks like an ex-convict that was paid to spread misinformation. Fortunately, this type of news presentation with pundit brainwashing is less common in Europe. Glad we have public broadcasting and not just commercial media sponsored by various ideological think tanks.


----------



## perempe

There'll be no Oktoberfest this year.


----------



## elgar's ghost

One aspect which baffles me about the UK stats is why there is no figure for the amount of hospital cases that have achieved recovery.


----------



## Room2201974

Rome burned while Nero played fiddlesticks.

Anyway you slice it or dice it, that will be the epitaph of history.


----------



## Kieran

Room2201974 said:


> Rome burned while Nero played fiddlesticks.
> 
> Anyway you slice it or dice it, that will be the epitaph of history.


Kind of typically for the political comments on this thread, that's fake news about Nero. And the Roman Empire in the west survived him by about 400 years, and reached its greatest extent after he was gone...


----------



## Flamme

Was virus made by chinese feminists to cull the MANkind??? Y no1 is uttering a word bout this ''misandry''
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-...di_Edi_New_Reg20200420&utm_campaign=DM1238070


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> Americans do that too. You too have opinions about the EU, about Russia, about China, about Middle East. Do I really need to live in Russia to know that the current regime there is a fascist one? Or that China is a totalitarian society? America is the leader of the world and English is the international language, so you should not be surprised, that people around the world follow American politics to some degree (you would be surprised how much students in China know about the US and Europe, while you know almost nothing about their country). Having an outside perspective can even help you be a little more objective.


You misunderstood my post. The person I was responding to told another poster that they shouldn't be commenting on American politics because they weren't American. I was asking him why he wasn't also telling you the same - my insinuation was that he was only telling those non-Americans to butt out of American politics when he didn't agree with their assessment. I don't care if you comment on American politics.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Sad Al said:


> Overweight is a bigger risk factor in this disease than smoking. Let's take US for example. Americans have decreased their smoking a lot, which has made them fatter than ever. One look at American reality TV shows proves that.
> 
> I am slightly overweight too. Should I start smoking? Should governments give free cigarettes to citizens until COVID-19 crisis is over?


I'm not sure how you make that logical jump. I understand that some people who quit smoking gain weight. But to link obesity in the U.S. overall with cessation of smoking . . . you're missing several logical steps in between.

And I've seen plenty of obese smokers.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> yes, they are willing to sacrifice some people, as long as it is someone else doing the dying. I would like to see these people going to the first line and care for the sick people at the hospitals without PPE. Then I would be conviced that they are serious. And it is not only seniors. There are quite a few younger people with underlying conditions such as diabetes, asthma, various disorders of immunity. Even if the true mortality is 0.3% (which I believe), you are looking at 1 million dead Americans, and not just the seniors.


And those people that are just scared about not being able to work and earn a living?


----------



## Flamme

Even tony blair advocated 4 opening on BBC...


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> Even tony blair advocated 4 opening on BBC...


Not that I saw...assuming you're referring to "opening" the economy.

https://institute.global/tony-blair/message-tony-blair-easing-lockdown


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> Even tony blair advocated 4 opening on BBC...


Did he? That's interesting. But of course, eventually we have to open up, because otherwise there's no economy to buy a pack of tissues, let alone fund huge hospitals. Check flight arrivals to Heathrow, to Dublin airport, and I'm sure to all major airports, people are still arriving and departing to places both near and far. Ferries are riding. Lockdown hasn't been absolute, and nor could it be. But eventually it has to end. That's both terrifying, and necessary. Terrifying for the hospital workers and the most vulnerable - and necessary for the sake of the same people...


----------



## Flamme

MacLeod said:


> Not that I saw...assuming you're referring to "opening" the economy.
> 
> https://institute.global/tony-blair/message-tony-blair-easing-lockdown


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> this kind of making "news" annoys me. They present some news, but invite various pundits to interpret it for you. It is not just Fox News, but also the liberal media in the US. There is one especially comical pundit on Fox News called Dan Bongino. He looks like an ex-convict that was paid to spread misinformation. Fortunately, this type of news presentation with pundit brainwashing is less common in Europe. Glad we have public broadcasting and not just commercial media sponsored by various ideological think tanks.


The problem is not that these different news stations with their biases exist - it is that people watch only those that confirm their biases. They act like they will die if they dare expose themselves to opposing views. Perish the thought that someone out there might not agree with you. I'm sure Europe has their own issues - I'm not convinced that public broadcasting is the solution. Somebody is always making the decision of what to report and from what angle to report.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> Kind of typically for the political comments on this thread, that's fake news about Nero. And the Roman Empire in the west survived him by about 400 years, and reached its greatest extent after he was gone...


Yeah - given that fiddles/violins didn't really exist in mid first century A.D. Rome.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


>


So, what did he say that leads you to conclude he is "4 opening" any more than the UK government or its scientific advisers? He clearly says, "not until we're on top" and "when we can do mass testing". He also says we must be ready, and prepared to discuss opening now.

But not that we open now.

Everyone (AFAIK) is in favour of opening...it's the timing that is disputed.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> Did he? That's interesting. But of course, eventually we have to open up, because otherwise there's no economy to buy a pack of tissues, let alone fund huge hospitals. Check flight arrivals to Heathrow, to Dublin airport, and I'm sure to all major airports, people are still arriving and departing to places both near and far. Ferries are riding. Lockdown hasn't been absolute, and nor could it be. But eventually it has to end. That's both terrifying, and necessary. Terrifying for the hospital workers and the most vulnerable - and necessary for the sake of the same people...


Countries can't survive this kind of economic shutdown for very long. National governments may do bailouts in the meantime, but their money has to come from somewhere. If revenue isn't coming in to treasuries, then they print money. But when it becomes clear that that newly printed money isn't backed by any hope of revenue eventually coming in, inflation will soar. In the U.S., the federal government can just print money - the states can't. Right now, they are probably seeing their revenues drying up. People are buying less and producing less. States depend heavily on lots of different taxes - most tied to consumption, either directly or indirectly. It's easy to say that we can't put a price tag on lives, but the fact of the matter is we do it all the time. Anybody who drives a car has already decided that the convenience it brings is worth the significantly increased risk to their health. We try and mitigate risk as much as possible, but ultimately, it is just haggling over the value we place on our lives, not whether we feel they are invaluable.

I worry this virus will be like so many other diseases for which we still don't have vaccines in spite of years of research. We may just end up with it being managed, not overcome - like we manage influenza, HIV, and so many other diseases for which we have no ultimate cure, like we did for smallpox. We'll maybe have a vaccine that is moderately effective but not always, and potentially some drugs that can help significantly improve prognoses once you are infected.

Or it may go through the population and then a few years from now we'll be talking about it in the past tense like its other fellow coronaviruses - SARS and MERS.


----------



## Flamme

MacLeod said:


> So, what did he say that leads you to conclude he is "4 opening" any more than the UK government or its scientific advisers? He clearly says, "not until we're on top" and "when we can do mass testing". He also says we must be ready, and prepared to discuss opening now.
> 
> But not that we open now.
> 
> Everyone (AFAIK) is in favour of opening...it's the timing that is disputed.


I concluded not on his words but his Tone which is very alarming and panicky...Ofcourse he is 4 testing but he is very concerned for economy recovery...


----------



## Jacck

a funny paper
Coronavirus deaths greater where Fox News viewers watched 'Hannity' more than Tucker Carlson, says U. of C. study
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200420-j7uuufykzbcgvmyqlusa2wvtgq-story.html


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> but he is very concerned for economy recovery...


As are we all .


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> And those people that are just scared about not being able to work and earn a living?


state should help them survive. Most countries in Europe do it that way. For example my brother works for a company, they now pay him 20% of the salary, and state pays additional 60%, so the companies do not need to let go of workers. They also give some money to the freelancers.


----------



## Flamme

Đoković says NO to vaccine...


----------



## starthrower

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We may just end up with it being managed, not overcome - like we manage influenza, HIV, and so many other diseases for which we have no ultimate cure, like we did for smallpox. We'll maybe have a vaccine that is moderately effective but not always, and potentially some drugs that can help significantly improve prognoses once you are infected.


It's being managed very poorly in my country. Everyone knows that a return to usual without extensive testing will be a disaster. People should be very worried because if things don't improve there is going to be a lot more than just toilet paper out of stock at the grocery stores. And comparing the management of CoV-2 to HIV is not a good analogy. Practicing safe sex is a much easier task than not breathing, coughing or sneezing around others.


----------



## erki

Interestingly the map of the number of infections correlates with map of the places with most polluted air.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720321215


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> state should help them survive. Most countries in Europe do it that way. For example my brother works for a company, they now pay him 20% of the salary, and state pays additional 60%, so the companies do not need to let go of workers. They also give some money to the freelancers.


That can't go on indefinitely though. In Ireland, there are now 1m people on social welfare, out of a population of 4.9m. Of the self-employed who have had to completely stop working, they get it for 12 weeks max, and if you're self-employed but are still earning anything at all, no matter how small, you don't qualify. There's no way they can keep up this lockdown for much longer without absolutely destroying the economy, which would in turn lead to mental health issues, suicides, increased homelessness and a spike in crime.

I know you're not saying they can keep it up indefinitely, by the way, but sometimes these things get reported as "unsympathetic crank thinks economy is more important than human life", whereas, actually, they're very much intertwined...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> That can't go on indefinitely though. In Ireland, there are now 1m people on social welfare, out of a population of 4.9m. Of the self-employed who have had to completely stop working, they get it for 12 weeks max, and if you're self-employed but are still earning anything at all, no matter how small, you don't qualify. There's no way they can keep up this lockdown for much longer without absolutely destroying the economy, which would in turn lead to mental health issues, suicides, increased homelessness and a spike in crime.
> 
> I know you're not saying they can keep it up indefinitely, by the way, but sometimes these things get reported as "unsympathetic crank thinks economy is more important than human life", whereas, actually, they're very much intertwined...


we are already opening the economy slowly up. The made a stepwise plan with full opening in June. But the virus will still kill many businesses, especially the tourist business. It will disrupt demand for products worldwide, and we are mostly and export economy, so companies will suffer from the lack of international demand etc. Economic crisis is unavoidable.


----------



## Flamme

I worked 13 days this months and was told we will get a bigger salary, I have 2 c 2 believe...Many colleagues didnt show up on work, because they didnt have a transportation and company didnt provide it although it was promised...I used my bicycle and risked but I think it will pay off.


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## Kieran

Jacck said:


> we are already opening the economy slowly up. The made a stepwise plan with full opening in June. But the virus will still kill many businesses, especially the tourist business. It will disrupt demand for products worldwide, and we are mostly and export economy, so companies will suffer from the lack of international demand etc. Economic crisis is unavoidable.


This unfortunately is true, and as I've often said, the poison chalice is to decide when to release the flock. Greater brains than mine will have to find ways to soften the blow, while stimulating the economy at the same time, but also, the release of all the healthy folks from quarantine will provide a sudden jerk upwards, just by virtue of everybody feeling demob happy. I certainly am chomping at the bit to socialise, travel, and sit in my favourite caffs again. The occasional visit to the supermarket is highly intoxicating, in a crudely dangerous way, but it doesn't beat a flat white and a good scone, or a pint of Guinness in a beer garden, on a hot summers day...


----------



## starthrower

Kieran said:


> and as I've often said, the poison chalice is to decide when to release the flock. Greater brains than mine will have to find ways to soften the blow


Greater minds are not sitting in governors' chairs in several US states. We are headed towards 50,000 deaths from just 20,000 in a matter of two weeks. But Georgia and Tennessee are getting ready to re-open their economies. Georgia governor Brian Kemp did not even discuss his decision to re-open with the mayors of the state's two largest economies, Atlanta and Augusta. According to Kemp, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors are essential businesses that can re-open.


----------



## Jacck

starthrower said:


> Greater minds are not sitting in governors' chairs in several US states. We are headed towards 50,000 deaths from just 20,000 in a matter of two weeks. But Georgia and Tennessee are getting ready to re-open their economies. Georgia governor Brian Kemp did not even discuss his decision to re-open with the mayors of the state's two largest economies, Atlanta and Augusta. According to Kemp, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors are essential businesses that can re-open.


during the communism we always made fun of the communists that the command the weather. Now Republicans think they command the economy. They don't.


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## Flamme

Some1 said how dictatorial systems like china, russia handled this crisis better than western democracies...


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## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Some1 said how dictatorial systems like china, russia handled this crisis better than western democracies...


like Chernobyl, you will never know the true scale of the disaster


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## Flamme

Yeah, I heard some ppl say ppl still get cancers from radioactive winds and rains in 80s...So sad...There is a gr8 forest fire 2day around cherno...Well what u dont know cannot hurt u, right...Or curiosity killed a cat...No but really there are many voices who praise chine, russia, hungary even


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## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Yeah, I heard some ppl say ppl still get cancers from radioactive winds and rains in 80s...So sad...There is a gr8 forest fire 2day around cherno...Well what u dont know cannot hurt u, right...Or curiosity killed a cat...No but really there are many voices who praise chine, russia, hungary even


we got an epidemic of Hashimotos after the Chernobyl
https://www.boostthyroid.com/blog/2...obyl-nuclear-accident-affected-thyroid-health
Yes, I read about the fires there. They are afraid that they might release the nucleotides trapped in the vegetation and soil there. But I read we need not worry, we should be safe


----------



## elgar's ghost

Flamme said:


> Some1 said how dictatorial systems like china, russia handled this crisis better than western democracies...


China certainly handled it better - by being bloody evasive about it. Once the crisis in Wuhan appeared to subside China seemed to consider the pandemic as somebody else's problem.


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## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> China certainly handled it better - by being bloody evasive about it. Once the crisis in Wuhan appeared to subside China seemed to consider the pandemic as somebody else's problem.


China sees it as an opportunity to buy western companies at bargain prices
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/15/china-is-bargain-hunting-and-western-security-is-at-risk/


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> a funny paper
> Coronavirus deaths greater where Fox News viewers watched 'Hannity' more than Tucker Carlson, says U. of C. study
> https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200420-j7uuufykzbcgvmyqlusa2wvtgq-story.html


That is just plain stupid. NYC has vastly more deaths than anywhere else in the country, and it is far from a hotbed of Fox News viewership. I'm sure that when they polled the 10 Fox News viewers in NYC, they could see this correlation. But in the greater scheme of things, there is nothing significant about it.

And they think people mistrust experts simply because of Fox News.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> state should help them survive. Most countries in Europe do it that way. For example my brother works for a company, they now pay him 20% of the salary, and state pays additional 60%, so the companies do not need to let go of workers. They also give some money to the freelancers.


And when the state runs out of money because their economies have crashed? Government doesn't create wealth - all the businesses and individuals in the nation create the wealth, and government gets revenue through taxation and other measures that they can then use to fund things like what you are talking about. But that money ultimately has to come from somewhere. So it isn't simply a matter of the state helping them survive. It is how quickly the state will run out of money to help people survive because the economy has crashed. That is what scares people - how long do we actually think we can keep paying people when we have shut down so much of the economy?


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> It's being managed very poorly in my country. Everyone knows that a return to usual without extensive testing will be a disaster. People should be very worried because if things don't improve there is going to be a lot more than just toilet paper out of stock at the grocery stores. And comparing the management of CoV-2 to HIV is not a good analogy. Practicing safe sex is a much easier task than not breathing, coughing or sneezing around others.


The problem is nobody really knows anything. We can't all issue these ultimatums as if we know the answer. It may be a disaster anyway we slice it when we return to living, regardless of how long we take. We do know that it is an economic disaster. Over 22 million people have lost jobs in the last 3-4 weeks in the U.S. Nobody has opened back up yet, so I'm guessing we are only going to see those numbers continue to rise until the point we reopen. How long do you think we can handle sending these people money? 22 million in less than a month - good Lord, what is that doing to the welfare/unemployment infrastructure?

I wasn't comparing the coronavirus to HIV in terms of transmission, but rather in terms of what tools we have to control it, namely vaccines and drugs. Obviously they are very different viruses - that is why I also compared it to influenza. They are among diseases for which we don't have a vaccine, or one that is imperfect, but also have various drugs that help as well. My point was that we may not eradicate this virus like we have with smallpox, or (mostly) polio, measles, whooping cough, etc. We may have to live with a certain level of endemic presence that we manage, but not eliminate.

If we open, it may be a disaster. If we stay closed, it will definitely be a disaster. There is no good answer, and anybody who tells you they know is either lying or deluded. We won't have a vaccine anytime soon. At some time we need to have a really hard discussion about just how much we can live with and make the hard decision. And demagoguing the different opinions on the matter won't help.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Jacck said:


> China sees it as an opportunity to buy western companies at bargain prices
> https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/15/china-is-bargain-hunting-and-western-security-is-at-risk/


And then presumably threaten to run them into the ground if anyone starts to point the finger.


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## pianozach

elgars ghost said:


> One aspect which baffles me about the UK stats is why there is no figure for the amount of hospital cases that have achieved recovery.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
_*Worldometer* manually analyzes, validates, and aggregates data from thousands of sources in real time and provides global COVID-19 live statistics for a wide audience of caring people around the world.

Our sources include Official Websites of Ministries of Health or other Government Institutions and Government authorities' social media accounts. Because national aggregates often lag behind the regional and local health departments' data, part of our work consists in monitoring thousands of daily reports released by local authorities. Our multilingual team also monitors press briefings' live streams throughout the day. Occasionally, we can use a selection of leading and trusted news wires with a proven history of accuracy in communicating the data reported by Governments in live press conferences before it is published on the Official Websites.

We provide the source of each data update in the "Latest Updates" (News) section.
_

UK:

21 April
Total Cases: 124,741
New Cases: +4,674
Total Deaths: 16,509
New Deaths: *+449*
Total Recovered: *N/A*

*UK* and *Netherlands* seem to be the only nations for which there is no data found for "_*recovered*_".


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## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> And when the state runs out of money because their economies have crashed? Government doesn't create wealth - all the businesses and individuals in the nation create the wealth, and government gets revenue through taxation and other measures that they can then use to fund things like what you are talking about. But that money ultimately has to come from somewhere. So it isn't simply a matter of the state helping them survive. It is how quickly the state will run out of money to help people survive because the economy has crashed. That is what scares people - how long do we actually think we can keep paying people when we have shut down so much of the economy?


they will simply print and print more money and offer it to the companies at low interest rates, which of course will lead to inflation


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> we are already opening the economy slowly up. The made a stepwise plan with full opening in June. But the virus will still kill many businesses, especially the tourist business. It will disrupt demand for products worldwide, and we are mostly and export economy, so companies will suffer from the lack of international demand etc. *Economic crisis is unavoidable*.


That is absolutely true. The economic crisis is upon us. The question is just how bad we let it go. What is that tipping point where the risk of the virus is less than the risk that a collapsed economy presents us? Do we wait until people are in food rationing lines, killing pets for food - like in Venezuela - before we finally decide we should open things back up?

It will take some time for things to get back up and running, even when we do open back up. People will still be wary and do a lot of self-quarantine. All the more reason to make that hard decision on when the earliest is we can open.


----------



## elgar's ghost

pianozach said:


> _*UK* and *Netherlands* seem to be the only nations for which there is no data found for "*recovered*_".


...which then surely makes the 'active cases' figure nonsensical.


----------



## pianozach

Kieran said:


> Did he? That's interesting. But of course, eventually we have to open up, because otherwise there's no economy to buy a pack of tissues, let alone fund huge hospitals. Check flight arrivals to Heathrow, to Dublin airport, and I'm sure to all major airports, people are still arriving and departing to places both near and far. Ferries are riding. Lockdown hasn't been absolute, and nor could it be. But eventually it has to end. That's both terrifying, and necessary. Terrifying for the hospital workers and the most vulnerable - and necessary for the sake of the same people...


These two charts show how the coronavirus pandemic led to the severe drop in US air travel.

















https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/4/20/21224080/coronavirus-air-travel-decline-charts


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Greater minds are not sitting in governors' chairs in several US states. We are headed towards 50,000 deaths from just 20,000 in a matter of two weeks. But Georgia and Tennessee are getting ready to re-open their economies. Georgia governor Brian Kemp did not even discuss his decision to re-open with the mayors of the state's two largest economies, Atlanta and Augusta. According to Kemp, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors are essential businesses that can re-open.


Why do we focus on these states that have relatively few cases and completely ignore the elephant in the room? Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee are not what are driving the massive case numbers and deaths in this country - it is your state, and specifically, NYC. Mock Kemp's decision to open bowling alleys and tattoo parlors. People who visit those businesses will still be further apart than all those people sardined into subway cars in NYC without the mayor even telling them to wear masks.

United States - 800,262 cases, 42,946 deaths
New York - 242,786 cases, 13,869 deaths
Georgia - 18,391 cases, 687 deaths
Tennessee - 6,762 cases, 145 deaths
South Carolina - 4,246 cases, 119 deaths.

New York alone accounts for 30% of all cases and 32% of all deaths. One state. Let's quit knocking these other states when NYC subways continue to run and people are not wearing masks in these infectious incubators. Bowling alleys can spread people out. Tattoo parlors can take limited numbers of customers at a time, or even by appointment only, and wear masks. Bowling alleys and tattoo parlors in Georgia and Tennessee are not what is behind the coronavirus problem in this country.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> That is absolutely true. The economic crisis is upon us. The question is just how bad we let it go. What is that tipping point where the risk of the virus is less than the risk that a collapsed economy presents us? Do we wait until people are in food rationing lines, killing pets for food - like in Venezuela - before we finally decide we should open things back up?
> 
> It will take some time for things to get back up and running, even when we do open back up. People will still be wary and do a lot of self-quarantine. All the more reason to make that hard decision on when the earliest is we can open.


*Sadly, it comes down to timing the "opening up".

The longer we wait, the worse off the economy will be.

If we hasten the "opening up" we are risking a taller bell curve of deaths, and perhaps even a second wave.

Both experts and ignorant politicians will decide what the balance will be between dollars and lives.
*


----------



## Room2201974

Kieran said:


> Kind of typically for the political comments on this thread, that's fake news about Nero. And the Roman Empire in the west survived him by about 400 years, and reached its greatest extent after he was gone...


Fake news about Nero, fact for someone else. And a short sweet little slogan that even knuckledraggers can understand...well some of em anyway!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> they will simply print and print more money and offer it to the companies at low interest rates, which of course will lead to inflation


Yeah. And we'll end up like Weimar Germany, with people loading buckets with money to go buy a loaf of bread, if there is any bread to buy. Western nations are frequently a victim of their own success. We live in relative luxury, and so we can talk in lofty terms about how horrible it is to even consider reopening the economy if it means EVEN ONE LIFE IS LOST! We don't really know what a real economic disaster is. Sure, we have recessions from time to time. But to actually experience a collapse of the economy - when there is no money, or the money is worthless, and even if you had money, there was nothing to buy. I'll take a 1-2% mortality rate over that - and I say that as one of those who would be at high risk of likely ending up in that 1-2%, given that I have a pre-existing condition.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

elgars ghost said:


> China certainly handled it better - by being bloody evasive about it. Once the crisis in Wuhan appeared to subside China seemed to consider the pandemic as somebody else's problem.


Of course, that all depends on how much you believe the numbers they have reported, which they have already revised upwards by 50%. It is a fool's errand to believe anything they are reporting.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Yeah. And we'll end up like Weimar Germany, with people loading buckets with money to go buy a loaf of bread, if there is any bread to buy. Western nations are frequently a victim of their own success. We live in relative luxury, and so we can talk in lofty terms about how horrible it is to even consider reopening the economy if it means EVEN ONE LIFE IS LOST! We don't really know what a real economic disaster is. Sure, we have recessions from time to time. But to actually experience a collapse of the economy - when there is no money, or the money is worthless, and even if you had money, there was nothing to buy. I'll take a 1-2% mortality rate over that - and I say that as one of those who would be at high risk of likely ending up in that 1-2%, given that I have a pre-existing condition.


it wont get that bad, they will control the inflation by printing only certain amount of money to keep it in the desired range. The main problem is imho demand. When there is no demand, there is nowhere to sell the products, companies will let go of people, who will have even less money and thus less demand etc. The engine of western economy is endless consumption. Now the engine is blown.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Why do we focus on these states that have relatively few cases and completely ignore the elephant in the room? Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee are not what are driving the massive case numbers and deaths in this country - it is your state, and specifically, NYC. Mock Kemp's decision to open bowling alleys and tattoo parlors. People who visit those businesses will still be further apart than all those people sardined into subway cars in NYC without the mayor even telling them to wear masks.
> 
> United States - 800,262 cases, 42,946 deaths
> *New York - 242,786 cases, 13,869 deaths
> **Georgia - 18,391 cases, 687 deaths
> *Tennessee - 6,762 cases, 145 deaths
> South Carolina - 4,246 cases, 119 deaths.
> 
> New York alone accounts for 30% of all cases and 32% of all deaths. One state. Let's quit knocking these other states when NYC subways continue to run and people are not wearing masks in these infectious incubators. Bowling alleys can spread people out. Tattoo parlors can take limited numbers of customers at a time, or even by appointment only, and wear masks. Bowling alleys and tattoo parlors in Georgia and Tennessee are not what is behind the coronavirus problem in this country.


False equivalence.

The population of New York state is 19.45 million (19,450,000), with about half of them in NYC in roughly 300 mi².

The population of the state of Georgia is 10.62 million (10,620,000), roughly 54% the population of NY. It's largest city, Atlanta, has a population of less than half a million

New York City is a densely populated urban area that is a hub of tourism.

So while Georgia is lagging behind NY in both cases and deaths, *they'll soon be catching up*, especially with an "Opening Up" of bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, gyms, fitness centers, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools & massage therapists, sit-down restaurants, theaters and private social clubs. And beaches.

All these people sharing air in close quarters. Sharing doorknobs and faucets, seats, counters, handrails, and who knows what else.

According to Georgia Department of Public Health data, 60 more people died from the virus over the last weekend.

*Will there be a "Second Wave"?* Epidemics of infectious diseases behave in different ways but the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed more than 50 million people is regarded as a key example of a pandemic that occurred in *multiple waves*, with the latter more severe than the first.

*Experts in epidemiology are in solidarity on this: 
1. Without a vaccine, and 
2. with no widespread immunity to the new disease, and
3. after the capacity for treatment and isolation becomes exhausted, and 
4. the social and political consensus supporting lockdowns is being overtaken by public frustration, and
5. the real rate of infection only being guessed at . . . 
*
Populations worldwide remain highly vulnerable to both resurgence and subsequent waves.


Unfortunately, *our* leaders are politicians, and their actual constituency is their donors, the rich people with money, who feel that their wealth is more important than the lives of serfs.

Georgia's health care system will be overwhelmed about three weeks after it's "Opening Up".


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> False equivalence.
> 
> The population of New York state is 19.45 million (19,450,000), with about half of them in NYC in roughly 300 mi².
> 
> The population of the state of Georgia is 10.62 million (10,620,000), roughly 54% the population of NY. It's largest city, Atlanta, with a population of less than half a million
> 
> New York City is a densely populated urban area that is a hub of tourism.
> 
> So while Georgia is lagging behind NY in both cases and deaths, *they'll soon be catching up*, especially with an "Opening Up" of bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, gyms, fitness centers, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools & massage therapists, sit-down restaurants, theaters and private social clubs. And beaches.
> 
> All these people sharing air in close quarters. Sharing doorknobs and faucets, seats, counters, handrails, and who knows what else.
> 
> According to Georgia Department of Public Health data, 60 more people died from the virus over the last weekend.
> 
> Will there be a "Second Wave". Epidemics of infectious diseases behave in different ways but the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed more than 50 million people is regarded as a key example of a pandemic that occurred in multiple waves, with the latter more severe than the first.
> 
> *Experts in epidemiology are in solidarity on this:
> 1. Without a vaccine, and
> 2. with no widespread immunity to the new disease, and
> 3. after the capacity for treatment and isolation becomes exhausted, and
> 4. the social and political consensus supporting lockdowns is being overtaken by public frustration, and
> 5. the real rate of infection only being guessed at . . .
> *
> Populations worldwide remain highly vulnerable to both resurgence and subsequent waves.
> 
> 
> Unfortunately, *our* leaders are politicians, and their actual constituency is their donors, the rich people with money, who feel that their wealth is more important than the lives of serfs.
> 
> Georgia's health care system will be overwhelmed about three weeks after it's "Opening Up".


California - 28,000 cases, 1072 deaths
California population - 39.51 million
Los Angeles - 3.99 million (second most populous City in the U.S.)
San Francisco/Bay area - 7.6 million

Less than 1/10th the cases and deaths of New York in spite of having twice the total population.

No, there is definitely something really wrong with how New York, and specifically New York City, had handled this.


----------



## Jacck

in my country they tested the clever quarantines (that they use in Korea) and the results are good. They say that they can fully replace complete lockdowns.
https://translate.google.com/transl...za-plosna-opatreni.A200421_170533_domaci_remy


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> California - 28,000 cases, 1072 deaths
> California population - 39.51 million
> Los Angeles - 3.99 million (second most populous City in the U.S.)
> San Francisco/Bay area - 7.6 million
> 
> Less than 1/10th the cases and deaths of New York in spite of having twice the total population.
> 
> No, there is definitely something really wrong with how New York, and specifically New York City, had handled this.


Again, you are leaving out the incredible density of NYC. 8 million people crammed into a small area.

Manhattan's population density is 66,940 people per square mile.
Los Angeles had a density of 7,545 people per square mile .
San Francisco's density is 18,838/sq mi.

New York State has an area of 54,556 mi²
California has an area of 163,696 mi², 3X larger.

Apples, meet avocados.


----------



## Guest

There seems to be a plain assumption that the different figures for different countries / regions / states is solely accounted for by the different responses to the outbreak.

This takes no account of the many factors that contribute to the way the outbreak spread in each place. It may take some time to analyse the impact of these factors, but it seems wise to me to exercise caution in comparing one with another rather than leaping to a crude conclusion.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Again, you are leaving out the incredible density of NYC. 8 million people crammed into a small area.
> 
> Manhattan's population density is 66,940 people per square mile.
> Los Angeles had a density of 7,545 people per square mile .
> San Francisco's density is 18,838/sq mi.
> 
> New York State has an area of 54,556 mi²
> California has an area of 163,696 mi², 3X larger.
> 
> Apples, meet avocados.


Break it down in any way you like - the breakdown of how NYC has handled this has been poor, at best. San Francisco has a population density a little less than a third that of Manhattan. But the total deaths in all of California is a tenth that of New York.

Why is this even an argument? NYC is not handling this well. Yes - different situation. They sure didn't adapt to their particular set of circumstances. And why weren't they making people wear masks to ride the subway? You ignore that salient point.

And most of this country is not in a dire situation. Quote to me all the worst case scenarios you want - every one of those is always revised, and thus far, always downward. In other words, they always way overestimate.


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Break it down in any way you like - the breakdown of how NYC has handled this has been poor, at best. San Francisco has a population density a little less than a third that of Manhattan. But the total deaths in all of California is a tenth that of New York.


Population density and rate of infection are probably not a simple linear relationship like you are assuming.

Perhaps a city with three times the density should expect 3 squared = 9 times the number of infections? Or something else. (But I don't know.)


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Break it down in any way you like - the breakdown of how NYC has handled this has been poor, at best. San Francisco has a population density a little less than a third that of Manhattan. But the total deaths in all of California is a tenth that of New York.
> 
> Why is this even an argument? NYC is not handling this well. Yes - different situation. They sure didn't adapt to their particular set of circumstances. And why weren't they making people wear masks to ride the subway? You ignore that salient point.
> 
> And most of this country is not in a dire situation. Quote to me all the worst case scenarios you want - every one of those is always revised, and thus far, always downward. In other words, they always way overestimate.


"Break it down in any way you like"

Actually, I was breaking it down the way that YOU presented it, as a case of localities and their respective cases and deaths.

Except for the subways, you're trying to prove your point using vague subjective generalities (_"how NYC has handled this has been poor, at best", "NYC is not handling this well"_)

One gold star for you for the subways . . . wearing masks would have been a minor step they should have taken, although closing them down completely would have been a far better step. Out here in my little isolated northern suburb a county away from L.A. they shut down the busses. A couple of days ago member *Johnnie Burgess* had already mentioned this:



> *"I would not be surprised if public transportation is a major factor in the number of deaths. New York City is leading the US in deaths, would not be a shock if most of the dead there rode public transportation."*


Even *KenOC* alluded to this previous to _that_ comment, when he brought up the California/automobile symbiosis:



> Here in California, we feel fortunate to be skating through rather well compared with our counterpart state on the East Cost, New York. Here's a BBC article speculating on why the two states are having such different experiences. Could it be our love affair with the automobile?


Of course, given the skewed, poor, false, and late information given to the states by our White House administration (as well as the information NOT given to the states), it's no wonder the responses were so varied and imperfect.

You keep trying to excuse the White House response while you throw states under the bus. *New York* asked for ventilators, and was ridiculed by the President for wanted too many (they asked for 30,000 to 40,000 based on the 'worst case scenario' given to them by The White House, and were told that was 10,000 times more than they needed: _"I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they'll have two ventilators. And now, all of a sudden, they're saying, 'Can we order 30,000 ventilators?'"_).

This is a *NATIONAL* problem, and the lack of a cohesive national response is shameful. Instead, each state has been slapping together their own response to fill the vacuum, and there's very little coordination between the states. More than five weeks into a devastating shutdown of the U.S. economy, and we still don't have tests.

The message coming out of the White House on testing varies day to day. Trump has contradicted himself repeatedly over the past month about the federal government's role in fighting the crisis and his own control over states.

Trump has tried to pass the buck by pinning the responsibility for ramping up testing on the nation's governors, who have complained for weeks about not being able to procure enough swabs, chemicals or supplies to run the actual tests. His latest tension came with Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, whom Trump criticized even though the governor followed Trump's instruction for states to get their own tests.

The White House was slow to respond to the virus, and testing is a key component of that 'slow start', especially with the early testing fiascos.

Just over 4 million tests have been completed so far, for a population of roughly 330 million Americans, amid widespread reports of sick Americans being unable to get tested quickly - increasing the odds of spreading the virus.

Pledges from Trump and his team since early March have not panned out, even as Trump continues to hype the administration's early work (Remember? On March 6, the president told reporters *"anybody that wants a test can get a test. That's what the bottom line is."* His comment was contradicted for the past six weeks by state officials, health care workers and countless individual stories of Americans unable to get tested). Actually, politically one of Trump's biggest flaws is that he can't help opening his mouth and just "saying things". He's very good at making it up as he goes along.

So, I'll say it again: *The lag in testing comes in part from the president and the administration's early efforts to downplay the threat of the virus*.

But the more you try to excuse Trump, the more apparent it becomes the his entire coronavirus response is a glaring example of massive political corruption.

Trump has treated the distribution of the federal government's supply of emergency medical equipment like he is walking around the neighborhood with a money clip, pulling out bills and patting grateful recipients on the cheek.

I could spend the time spelling it out for you, but you're evidently not in a listening mood, instead you've made it very clear that *you believe that money is more important than lives:* 
(_"But to actually experience a collapse of the economy - when there is no money, or the money is worthless, and even if you had money, there was nothing to buy. I'll take a 1-2% mortality rate over that"_)

*You came barging in here a few days ago swinging your balls around like they're a double-headed meteor hammer, complaining about 
the governors* 
(_". . . some tin pot dictator goes on TV . . . ", 
"Right now, Governor Whitmer in Michigan and Mayor diBlasio in NYC are exhibiting the most fascistic behavior in this country", 
"petty tyrant governors trying to control people"_), 
*the media* 
(_"falsehoods from a decisively liberal point of view"_), 
*Talk Classical members* 
(_"Some of you on here need to lighten up", 
"who can denounce Trump the most vehemently", 
"you've had a chip on your shoulder", 
"This is just getting ridiculous"_), 
*played the victim* 
(_"you all want to make me your scapegoat", 
"I get attacked and piled on"_), *and 
your perceived victimization of Trump* 
(_"I'm sure it is easier on the mind to pick a scapegoat like Trump"_)

You've made some good points here and there, but mostly your comments here tend to overshadow those points.

First impressions say a lot about a person, and you've certainly done that.


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> in my country they tested the clever quarantines (that they use in Korea) and the results are good. They say that they can fully replace complete lockdowns.
> https://translate.google.com/transl...za-plosna-opatreni.A200421_170533_domaci_remy


In my country the politics start to play their games already. We have a coalition with somewhat extreme conservative party being in it. For them this situation is like winning the jackpot - strict rules, less freedoms, closed borders, foreigners out. They are a minority in the government but rhetorically the most obnoxious and loudest. For them the extension of extreme measures are real happy days. It is not them to decide but they declared that nothing will open up til July. Luckily our PM is not total idiot.


----------



## Flamme

I cant really tell from this distance is trump doing a good job or not...2day I read that chinese scientists WARN that virus has thousands of mutations and that especially violent strain has hit italy and east coast of USA...That is strange in itself, how come so many changes in genetics and 1 really starts 2 think is it a bio weapon after all...


----------



## millionrainbows

Well, you can't shut the whole country down forever. I think the hold-out is a Democratic plot, designed to bring low-income workers (usually illegals) into the spotlight, and to ruin Trump's economic accomplishments. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of Democrats had gone over to China on purpose, to bring it back. Do they still think he's a "racist" for preventing travel from China? Suddenly, the border issue means a lot more now, doesn't it?


----------



## Flamme

Lest we forget...THE PANGOLIONS


----------



## Jacck

millionrainbows said:


> Well, you can't shut the whole country down forever. I think the hold-out is a Democratic plot, designed to bring low-income workers (usually illegals) into the spotlight, and to ruin Trump's economic accomplishments. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of Democrats had gone over to China on purpose, to bring it back. Do they still think he's a "racist" for preventing travel from China? Suddenly, the border issue means a lot more now, doesn't it?


O sancta simplicitas

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/man-dies-from-coronavirus-after-calling-it-a-political-ploy/


----------



## DaveM

millionrainbows said:


> ... I think the hold-out is a Democratic plot, designed to bring low-income workers (usually illegals) into the spotlight, and to ruin Trump's economic accomplishments. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of Democrats had gone over to China on purpose, to bring it back..


You can't be serious. I've always thought that some of your ideas on CM were rather eccentric, but harmless. But if you really are serious about the above, then I will now put you in a whole new category reserved for conspiracy theorists who live on the fringe in their own parallel universe. Tdc is already there and will welcome you in with open arms.

Btw, those 'bunch of Democrats' who went to China and brought it back apparently had a particular gripe with their own blue state New York and perhaps some perceived future political threat from Italy.


----------



## starthrower

Millionrainbows, maybe you should lay off the Fox "News" and watch Jerry Springer re-runs instead. Let's see what happens in the state of Georgia as they open up their economy. Georgia is one of the least prepared states to handle an upsurge due to a large percentage of uninsured citizens, and cutbacks to medical facilities and medicaid.


----------



## KenOC

It's the Illuminati. It always is.


----------



## Flamme

If CIA says so...https://www.cia.gov/library/abbotta...Planned.to.Bring.Down.Our.Culture..3.of.5.pdf


----------



## Kieran

Governor Andrew Cuomo praises Trump: "He has delivered for New York":


----------



## Jacck

^^^
I read that he is playing the Apprentice with the governors.








so Cuomo needs to behave and praise the great leadership, otherwise he could forget about the ventilators

PS: I do not want to offend anyone, but we need a little humor


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> "Break it down in any way you like"
> 
> Actually, I was breaking it down the way that YOU presented it, as a case of localities and their respective cases and deaths.
> 
> Except for the subways, you're trying to prove your point using vague subjective generalities (_"how NYC has handled this has been poor, at best", "NYC is not handling this well"_)
> 
> One gold star for you for the subways . . . wearing masks would have been a minor step they should have taken, although closing them down completely would have been a far better step. Out here in my little isolated northern suburb a county away from L.A. they shut down the busses. A couple of days ago member *Johnnie Burgess* had already mentioned this:
> 
> Even *KenOC* alluded to this previous to _that_ comment, when he brought up the California/automobile symbiosis:
> 
> Of course, given the skewed, poor, false, and late information given to the states by our White House administration (as well as the information NOT given to the states), it's no wonder the responses were so varied and imperfect.
> 
> You keep trying to excuse the White House response while you throw states under the bus. *New York* asked for ventilators, and was ridiculed by the President for wanted too many (they asked for 30,000 to 40,000 based on the 'worst case scenario' given to them by The White House, and were told that was 10,000 times more than they needed: _"I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they'll have two ventilators. And now, all of a sudden, they're saying, 'Can we order 30,000 ventilators?'"_).
> 
> This is a *NATIONAL* problem, and the lack of a cohesive national response is shameful. Instead, each state has been slapping together their own response to fill the vacuum, and there's very little coordination between the states. More than five weeks into a devastating shutdown of the U.S. economy, and we still don't have tests.
> 
> The message coming out of the White House on testing varies day to day. Trump has contradicted himself repeatedly over the past month about the federal government's role in fighting the crisis and his own control over states.
> 
> Trump has tried to pass the buck by pinning the responsibility for ramping up testing on the nation's governors, who have complained for weeks about not being able to procure enough swabs, chemicals or supplies to run the actual tests. His latest tension came with Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, whom Trump criticized even though the governor followed Trump's instruction for states to get their own tests.
> 
> The White House was slow to respond to the virus, and testing is a key component of that 'slow start', especially with the early testing fiascos.
> 
> Just over 4 million tests have been completed so far, for a population of roughly 330 million Americans, amid widespread reports of sick Americans being unable to get tested quickly - increasing the odds of spreading the virus.
> 
> Pledges from Trump and his team since early March have not panned out, even as Trump continues to hype the administration's early work (Remember? On March 6, the president told reporters *"anybody that wants a test can get a test. That's what the bottom line is."* His comment was contradicted for the past six weeks by state officials, health care workers and countless individual stories of Americans unable to get tested). Actually, politically one of Trump's biggest flaws is that he can't help opening his mouth and just "saying things". He's very good at making it up as he goes along.
> 
> So, I'll say it again: *The lag in testing comes in part from the president and the administration's early efforts to downplay the threat of the virus*.
> 
> But the more you try to excuse Trump, the more apparent it becomes the his entire coronavirus response is a glaring example of massive political corruption.
> 
> Trump has treated the distribution of the federal government's supply of emergency medical equipment like he is walking around the neighborhood with a money clip, pulling out bills and patting grateful recipients on the cheek.
> 
> I could spend the time spelling it out for you, but you're evidently not in a listening mood, instead you've made it very clear that *you believe that money is more important than lives:*
> (_"But to actually experience a collapse of the economy - when there is no money, or the money is worthless, and even if you had money, there was nothing to buy. I'll take a 1-2% mortality rate over that"_)
> 
> *You came barging in here a few days ago swinging your balls around like they're a double-headed meteor hammer, complaining about
> the governors*
> (_". . . some tin pot dictator goes on TV . . . ",
> "Right now, Governor Whitmer in Michigan and Mayor diBlasio in NYC are exhibiting the most fascistic behavior in this country",
> "petty tyrant governors trying to control people"_),
> *the media*
> (_"falsehoods from a decisively liberal point of view"_),
> *Talk Classical members*
> (_"Some of you on here need to lighten up",
> "who can denounce Trump the most vehemently",
> "you've had a chip on your shoulder",
> "This is just getting ridiculous"_),
> *played the victim*
> (_"you all want to make me your scapegoat",
> "I get attacked and piled on"_), *and
> your perceived victimization of Trump*
> (_"I'm sure it is easier on the mind to pick a scapegoat like Trump"_)
> 
> You've made some good points here and there, but mostly your comments here tend to overshadow those points.
> 
> First impressions say a lot about a person, and you've certainly done that.


Everybody is to blame, but in any scenario, local is always better, because they can respond quickest. But the federal government definitely needs to do better. Hearing from Fauci and Birx is good. Trump should stop talking at the press conferences, because usually, at best, he is a distraction, at worst is trampling on Constitutional norms (like his claiming ultimate power).

But the testing was not his fault. We have a system in place, and it is protected by numerous regulations. When something like this happens, the CDC has the role of preparing test kits for public use. Which they did - except they screwed them up. I wished we had done what South Korea did, and immediately involve private companies in creating test kits and streamlining the approval process. But we didn't - the bureaucracy reigned until we realized how screwed we were. That wasn't all Trump's fault, but neither was he blameless.

As for ventilators - the governors all asked for far more than they needed. They grossly overestimated what they needed. In this area, the Trump administration actually handled it well, regardless of the rhetoric. They kept the federal supplies on hand, and went with a just-in-time model of distributing them where they were needed, when they were needed, not before, to sit in some store room until they might be needed. In addition, there was the realization that some areas - upstate New York, rural California - would not need as many ventilators as someplace like NYC - and so they and the governors coordinated lending of ventilators from hospitals that had no immediate need to those that did, with the guarantee that should those hospitals suddenly need them back, the federal government would guarantee that they would need them. And so as you may or may not know, that predicted shortage of ventilators has never happened. Not even in the most stricken place in this country, NYC. They have never had to deny a single person a ventilator that needed one. So in this case, the Trump administration actually got it right.

Trump was stupid downplaying the severity of this and worrying more about the politics. But only some of that is his fault - the Chinese were lying, and the WHO was not helping. In some ways he responded well - the travel restrictions (it helped that he was already an immigration restrictionist, so this fit with his objectives). In others poorly. But again, this was unprecedented. The WHO, whose sole job is managing the World Health, and is supposedly staffed by a bunch of experts in this area, behaved poorly. They even criticized Trump's one good early intervention - stopping travel. Because why? China lied, so nobody had good information. And then we had to go with what we know. A new coronavirus? Ooh, those are bad. But the last two times we had coronavirus outbreaks, the TOTAL GLOBAL CASE number was ~10,000. Sure, there are people who will always speculate that the next one could be the big one. But you never know.

I do think that governors need to be called out when they propose Stasi-style procedures to rat out your neighbors for . . . what? Going for a walk? Buying seeds? It's ridiculous.

And why don't you all get off your high horses about how you don't like me joining in here. There is no hierarchy here. I have just a right to post in here as any of you. Get over it. What, you think you are TC royalty, aristocracy? Please.

I don't think a one-size-fits-all policy is really useful anymore. A couple in Wyoming does not need to behave the same way that someone in NYC does. Why do I keep bringing up NYC? Because, as I said before, it is 1/3 of all cases and deaths in this country. In addition to not wearing masks in subways, their mayor also downplayed the need to shut down for longer than he should have. Sure - he was just following Trump's lead. Because that is what he is known for. Some of the leadership should come from the federal government, but local governments also need to step up more and not just wait for the federal government to swoop in. That's not the way our system was designed.


----------



## mmsbls

Here is an interesting article about what is very unusual about Covid-19 patients and how health workers could potentially identify serious Covid infections sooner.

The basic observation is that Covid-19 patients often develop serious pneumonia symptoms without realizing the problem. They experience oxygen deprivation known as silent (hard to detect) hypoxia, and do not come to hospitals until days later. Earlier detection could potentially lead to significantly better outcomes. Patients had extremely low oxygen saturation (e.g. 50% when > 94% is normal) but were using cell phones as though there was no serious problem.

Relatively simple devices known as pulse oximeter (available without prescriptions) can measure oxygen saturation and pulse rate. These devices could potentially identify Covid-19 patients earlier. The article suggests directing "resources to identifying and treating the initial phase of Covid pneumonia earlier by screening for silent hypoxia."


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> ^^^
> I read that he is playing the Apprentice with the governors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> so Cuomo needs to behave and praise the great leadership, otherwise he could forget about the ventilators
> 
> PS: I do not want to offend anyone, but we need a little humor


Cuomo has as many ventilators as he needs. Even he has admitted they don't need any more at this time. The "Trump isn't giving us the ventilators we need" canard has been proven wrong. No - he didn't give them what they asked for (always an overexaggeration), but they got what they needed, as I just explained to pianozach.


----------



## mmsbls

May I suggest, again, discussing the virus, policies, and many other related areas, but do not directly post about each other unless clearly in a positive manner.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> Here is an interesting article about what is very unusual about Covid-19 patients and how health workers could potentially identify serious Covid infections sooner.
> 
> The basic observation is that Covid-19 patients often develop serious pneumonia symptoms without realizing the problem. They experience oxygen deprivation known as silent (hard to detect) hypoxia, and do not come to hospitals until days later. Earlier detection could potentially lead to significantly better outcomes. Patients had extremely low oxygen saturation (e.g. 50% when > 94% is normal) but were using cell phones as though there was no serious problem.
> 
> Relatively simple devices known as pulse oximeter (available without prescriptions) can measure oxygen saturation and pulse rate. These devices could potentially identify Covid-19 patients earlier. The article suggests directing "resources to identifying and treating the initial phase of Covid pneumonia earlier by screening for silent hypoxia."


My mother has one of those, in addition to a home blood pressure kit. I'll have to tell her about that. Good info!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Flamme said:


> I cant really tell from this distance is trump doing a good job or not...2day I read that chinese scientists WARN that virus has thousands of mutations and that especially violent strain has hit italy and east coast of USA...That is strange in itself, how come so many changes in genetics and 1 really starts 2 think is it a bio weapon after all...


Some viruses, especially RNA viruses, have very high mutation rates. That would not be so surprising here. But I'm fairly certain they have shown there is no evidence of any kind of engineering of this virus. As scary as it is, there are just some really frightening things out there naturally. Some minor mutation, and boom, a virus that previously only infected other species can now tear into humans across the entire planet.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> You can't be serious. I've always thought that some of your ideas on CM were rather eccentric, but harmless. But if you really are serious about the above, then I will now put you in a whole new category reserved for conspiracy theorists who live on the fringe in their own parallel universe. Tdc is already there and will welcome you in with open arms.
> 
> Btw, those 'bunch of Democrats' who went to China and brought it back apparently had a particular gripe with their own blue state New York and perhaps some perceived future political threat from Italy.


Meh, that's nothing. I know someone who thinks it was engineered by the Chinese for population control, to replace their One Child policy.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Millionrainbows, maybe you should lay off the Fox "News" and watch Jerry Springer re-runs instead. Let's see what happens in the state of Georgia as they open up their economy. Georgia is one of the least prepared states to handle an upsurge due to a large percentage of uninsured citizens, and cutbacks to medical facilities and medicaid.


Call me an optimist - I give Georgia better than 50:50 odds things will be fine. Call it 65:35.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> It's the Illuminati. It always is.


No - it's the Pentavirate!


----------



## Bulldog

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Call me an optimist - I give Georgia better than 50:50 odds things will be fine. Call it 65:35.


It will be interesting to see what happens to infection rates in Georgia - sort of a test case. if three weeks go by and Georgia is doing well, a lot of states will open up.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bulldog said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens to infection rates in Georgia - sort of a test case. if three weeks go by and Georgia is doing well, a lot of states will open up.


I think any states that have had fewer than 1000 cases should probably try opening up. That probably isn't going to make up a huge fraction of our economic sector, as these are places like Montana, Wyoming, Maine, and West Virginia. But I really don't think they need to be as shut down as other places.


----------



## starthrower

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Call me an optimist - I give Georgia better than 50:50 odds things will be fine. Call it 65:35.


Not for the poor working people with no health insurance. It won't be fine for them.


----------



## DaveM

mmsbls said:


> Here is an interesting article about what is very unusual about Covid-19 patients and how health workers could potentially identify serious Covid infections sooner.
> 
> The basic observation is that Covid-19 patients often develop serious pneumonia symptoms without realizing the problem. They experience oxygen deprivation known as silent (hard to detect) hypoxia, and do not come to hospitals until days later. Earlier detection could potentially lead to significantly better outcomes. Patients had extremely low oxygen saturation (e.g. *50%* when > 94% is normal) but were using cell phones as though there was no serious problem.
> 
> Relatively simple devices known as pulse oximeter (available without prescriptions) can measure oxygen saturation and pulse rate. These devices could potentially identify Covid-19 patients earlier. The article suggests directing "resources to identifying and treating the initial phase of Covid pneumonia earlier by screening for silent hypoxia."


That 50% saturation seems unlikely (misprint?) since loss of consciousness tends to occur below 75%. Anyway, this is the medical-grade oximeter I bought some time ago (about $80).


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Not for the poor working people with no health insurance. It won't be fine for them.


I thought Obamacare was supposed to take care of all of that!


----------



## Bulldog

starthrower said:


> Not for the poor working people with no health insurance. It won't be fine for them.


It's never fine for them.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I thought Obamacare was supposed to take care of all of that!


Maybe it would have if it hadn't been increasingly emasculated during the last 3 years.

On the other hand, the 'beautiful' replacement that will cover pre-existing conditions, be less expensive and perform so much better than Obamacare is astounding...in our great leader's dreams.


----------



## starthrower

Bulldog said:


> It's never fine for them.


Never fine by design. Is that why the Governor of Georgia wants to open all the businesses that most likely don't offer heath insurance to their employees? And BTW, Georgia is in the top three states with the most uninsured citizens.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> Maybe it would have if it hadn't been increasingly emasculated during the last 3 years.


Ahem... Not sure about emasculation. My wife has an ACA policy and the coverage has not decreased a bit in the years she's had it, nor have premiums increased very much (even with the removal of the mandate). After subsidy, she's paying less than $200 a month for very good coverage, a bargain from any angle.


----------



## aleazk

DaveM said:


> That 50% saturation seems unlikely (misprint?) since loss of consciousness tends to occur below 75%. Anyway, this is the medical-grade oximeter I bought some time ago (about $80).
> 
> View attachment 134309


So, that's what those finger pins with the red light measure!  When I had surgery for an appendectomy, some 20 ya when I was 10 yo, they put my finger in one of those, but never knew what it was for.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> I cant really tell from this distance is trump doing a good job or not...2day I read that chinese scientists WARN that virus has thousands of mutations and that especially violent strain has hit italy and east coast of USA...That is strange in itself, how come so many changes in genetics and 1 really starts 2 think is it a bio weapon after all...


One of the scientists leading the UK's efforts to produce a vaccine said on the BBC that thus far, Covid19 _doesn't_ mutate significantly.


----------



## KenOC

aleazk said:


> So, that's what those finger pins with the red light measure!  When I had surgery for an appendectomy, some 20 ya when I was 10 yo, they put my finger in one of those, but never knew what it was for.


I bought one of those on Amazon for $15. It agrees exactlywith the medical-grade one used by my pulmonologist!


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Ahem... Not sure about emasculation. My wife has an ACA policy and the coverage has not decreased a bit in the years she's had it, nor have premiums increased very much (even with the removal of the mandate). After subsidy, she's paying less than $200 a month for very good coverage, a bargain from any angle.


That's because you and I live in California that has, among other things, replaced some subsidies, reinstated the individual mandate and supported the Obamacare infrastructure to work as efficiently as possible. I've had gripes about how high our taxes are and how they've been spent here, not to mention the bonds -that will have to be paid for- for the ridiculous bullet train, but the Obamacare program in California is something to be proud of.


----------



## mmsbls

DaveM said:


> That 50% saturation seems unlikely (misprint?) since loss of consciousness tends to occur below 75%. Anyway, this is the medical-grade oximeter I bought some time ago (about $80).
> 
> View attachment 134309


The doctor had this statement in the article:



> A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage - seemingly incompatible with life - but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Maybe it would have if it hadn't been increasingly emasculated during the last 3 years.
> 
> On the other hand, the 'beautiful' replacement that will cover pre-existing conditions, be less expensive and perform so much better than Obamacare is astounding...in our great leader's dreams.


It wasn't close to covering everybody even right on the last day of the Obama administration.


----------



## KenOC

A couple of days ago I forecasted that Trump would use the coronavirus along with Biden's coziness with China to attack him. He didn't wait long -- Trump's first major attack ad of 2020 is now out, and it's a dilly. The ad in full is shown near the beginning of this partisan hit piece. Should be an entertaining campaign!


----------



## starthrower

Bernie blew it! He had the chance to go for Biden's jugular and he chickened out. So we get a repeat of 2016.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Bernie blew it! He had the chance to go for Biden's jugular and he chickened out. So we get a repeat of 2016.


Bernie never had a chance. He only did well in tiny majority white states. Once he competed in a state with significant numbers of blacks - a major Democratic constituency - his prospects disappeared like a fart in the wind.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> It wasn't close to covering everybody even right on the last day of the Obama administration.


And your point is? Did the Republicans ever have a better plan? It was all talk. Virtually none of them had come up with anything substantive over the 8 years of Obamacare. Not to mention that Obama barely got the ACA passed as it was. To cover 'everybody' would have cost billions more and the Republicans would have none of it.

It occurs to me that since you are making a point that Obamacare didn't cover everybody when Obama left office that that was some sort of failure. Are you a 'Medicare for all' type of guy? I'm not.


----------



## Room2201974

Hello, 26165 bot check!


----------



## EdwardBast

Today saw the largest daily death toll to date in the US, about 2,800.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> And your point is? Did the Republicans ever have a better plan? It was all talk. Virtually none of them had come up with anything substantive over the 8 years of Obamacare. Not to mention that Obama barely got the ACA passed as it was. To cover 'everybody' would have cost billions more and the Republicans would have none of it.
> 
> It occurs to me that since you are making a point that Obamacare didn't cover everybody when Obama left office that that was some sort of failure. Are you a 'Medicare for all' type of guy? I'm not.


I prefer just letting everybody die. Less mouths to feed. We Republicans are evil that way.


----------



## KenOC

EdwardBast said:


> Today saw the largest daily death toll to date in the US, about 2,800.


Indeed, and the East/West Coasts disparity continues. As of now, New York State shows 1,004 Covid-19 deaths per million people; California shows 33.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Interesting article from the New York Times about the failure at the CDC in providing tests early. Sloppy practices that violated CDC'S own protocols resulted in contaminated tests and critical lost time. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/cdc-coronavirus-lab-contamination-testing.html


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I prefer just letting everybody die. Less mouths to feed. We Republicans are evil that way.


Ever notice how when someone comes up with real facts in response to some irrelevant or unsubstantiated comment you make, you pivot totally away from the subject?


----------



## starthrower

Obamacare is private insurance. There is no universal plan for the fifty states. In New York you can get great coverage for 46 dollars a month if you have a low income. But if you earn too much money the insurance premiums are expensive and there are high deductibles. And when I say earn too much money, people are still basically low income and these insurance plans are not really affordable. It's not much better for employees covered through an employer because it's gotten very expensive over the past decade.


----------



## DaveM

starthrower said:


> Obamacare is private insurance..


Obamacare is not just the exchanges (which are subsidized by the federal government). It includes coverage of children until age 26 under parents' insurance, expansion of Medicaid with subsidies from the federal government etc. Removing the mandate has increased premiums as healthy younger people dump insurance leaving people with pre-existing conditions. Also, federal subsidies have been reduced over the last few years.


----------



## Guest

EdwardBast said:


> Today saw the largest daily death toll to date in the US, about 2,800.


I see Singapore is experiencing a second round of the death toll. Migrant workers housed in dormitories and forgotten about, apparently. Out of sight, out of mind. Ooookay.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Ever notice how when someone comes up with real facts in response to some irrelevant or unsubstantiated comment you make, you pivot totally away from the subject?


My initial comment was a throwaway line - a joke. You and others took it seriously. Really didn't want to get into that debate. So I continued with throwaway joke lines. But not so far off the mark. Starthrower had some interesting ideas about motives for opening Georgia that sounded downright along the lines of child sex rings in D.C. pizza restaurants. Because, as he seems to imply: Republicans are evil that way.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My initial comment was a throwaway line - a joke. You and others took it seriously. Really didn't want to get into that debate. So I continued with throwaway joke lines. But not so far off the mark. Starthrower had some interesting ideas about motives for opening Georgia that sounded downright along the lines of child sex rings in D.C. pizza restaurants. Because, as he seems to imply: Republicans are evil that way.


I took your comment below seriously and gave some thought to my response in answer to it.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> It wasn't close to covering everybody even right on the last day of the Obama administration.


Below is how you responded. I won't make the mistake of taking you seriously again. They are minutes of my life I can't get back.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I prefer just letting everybody die. Less mouths to feed. We Republicans are evil that way.


----------



## Sad Al

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I'm not sure how you make that logical jump. I understand that some people who quit smoking gain weight. But to link obesity in the U.S. overall with cessation of smoking . . . you're missing several logical steps in between.
> 
> And I've seen plenty of obese smokers.


I think many ladies used to smoke to stay slim. In my country there was even a brand named _Mary Slim_. According to Kurt Vonnegut, the main reason many Americans (like him) smoke heavily is that they want to get out of 'it'. I don't know why smoking is less popular nowadays. Maybe Americans still want to get out of it, but they can't afford **** anymore.

A theory. COVID-19 will increase smoking.


----------



## KenOC

The American brand was (is?) "Virginia Slim."


----------



## Sad Al

KenOC said:


> The American brand was (is?) "Virginia Slim."


Indeed, Virginia is a female name too. I always thought that it refers to the TV Western. Clever. I think Vonnegut was right. Americans still want to get out of it, but these days they can't afford their ****. Now Ronald McDonald is their spiritual Jim Jones. I am reading 'Thinner' by Stephen King, it's good.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> A couple of days ago I forecasted that Trump would use the coronavirus along with Biden's coziness with China to attack him. He didn't wait long -- Trump's first major attack ad of 2020 is now out, and it's a dilly. The ad in full is shown near the beginning of this partisan hit piece. Should be an entertaining campaign!


I wonder how effective the ads even are in the hyperpolarized US politics. Trump's supporters are not going to be convinced by anything, and his dectractors either. There is so much negative stuff that could be produced about Trump. But why even bother?


----------



## Flamme

MacLeod said:


> One of the scientists leading the UK's efforts to produce a vaccine said on the BBC that thus far, Covid19 _doesn't_ mutate significantly.


Well it started in their country maybe they know a little bit better, donctha think? Allegedly they found 33 mutations in only 11 patients...


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> Well it started in their country maybe they know a little bit better, donctha think? Allegedly they found 33 mutations in only 11 patients...


Er...no, not necessarily.


----------



## Flamme

I just dont c what would they get by lying about it...And ''some'' ppl thi nk I support trumpy:lol:


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> I just dont c what would they get by lying about it...And ''some'' ppl thi nk I support trumpy:lol:


The Chinese government would lie as a natural course of action. They would gain plenty by lying, just as they've already gained plenty by lying about it. They'll continue to lie, because that's what they do...


----------



## Flamme

Yeah, but in this particular case, what do they have 2 gain???


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> I just dont c what would they get by lying about it...And ''some'' ppl thi nk I support trumpy:lol:


Who said they were lying? It's possible for scientists to hold different opinions.

Besides, I think you may have overlooked the word 'significant' in my post.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> You have enough to worry about in your own country without your thinking you know everything about mine. Nobody is butting into your politics.


Only the New York Times when we had our fires. What was it now? Australia is burning!! A massive country where the fires are confined to sections of two states. Yep, that's not an exaggeration or anything from a rabidly fake and dishonest news outlet.

And we've had precious few coronavirus cases in the last day so we don't have much to worry about, actually. In Western Australia NONE. But we are concerned about debt; that is, intelligent people are worried about debt (as they should be). Our restrictions here are likely to be lifted within the next 3 weeks. But that's the good thing about Australians; they're interested in other parts of the world, not just their own.


----------



## eljr

...................................................


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> Yeah, but in this particular case, what do they have 2 gain???


The Chinese goal is still the same as it ever was: power, through the extension of their hideous revolution. They're becoming more powerful, and in so many ways, the pandemic has been a godsend to them....


----------



## eljr

pianozach said:


> Again, you are leaving out the incredible density of NYC. 8 million people crammed into a small area.
> 
> Manhattan's population density is 66,940 people per square mile.
> Los Angeles had a density of 7,545 people per square mile .
> San Francisco's density is 18,838/sq mi.
> 
> New York State has an area of 54,556 mi²
> California has an area of 163,696 mi², 3X larger.
> 
> Apples, meet avocados.


that poster is about agenda not facts nor debate


----------



## Flamme

Kieran said:


> The Chinese goal is still the same as it ever was: power, through the extension of their hideous revolution. They're becoming more powerful, and in so many ways, the pandemic has been a godsend to them....


I thought 4 many years that the old ideologiy is DEAD, that was even the view of US governments, and that China is communist only in name, but indeed a state of Capitalism!


----------



## Art Rock

Yeah - Xi changed that.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I took your comment below seriously and gave some thought to my response in answer to it.
> 
> Below is how you responded. I won't make the mistake of taking you seriously again. They are minutes of my life I can't get back.


Okay.........:tiphat:


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> Well it started in their country maybe they know a little bit better, donctha think? Allegedly they found 33 mutations in only 11 patients...


See here, for example.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html

And here's a link to the Professor who was interviewed by the BBC's Andrew Marr on Sunday.

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/principal-investigators/researcher/sarah-gilbert


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> i have figured you out, you came back to straight up troll
> 
> quick question, do you listen to classical music?


Nope. I listen to nothing but 80's boy bands. :tiphat:


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Flamme said:


> I thought 4 many years that the old ideologiy is DEAD, that was even the view of US governments, and that China is communist only in name, but indeed a state of Capitalism!


Turns out that was never true. I think that was really exposed last year when you had the protests in Hong Kong, and then with the whole NBA kowtowing fiasco.


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> I thought 4 many years that the old ideologiy is DEAD, that was even the view of US governments, and that China is communist only in name, but indeed a state of Capitalism!


The old ideology was born dead, but the Chinese are still about power, corruption and revolution...


----------



## Guest

Kieran said:


> the Chinese are still about power, corruption and revolution...


Unlike the rest of the world?

Characterising an entire nation by what we see/know of its politicians and political history is an unreliable business. I wonder what conclusions I might draw about the Irish, based on either Mr Varadkar, or "The Troubles"...or even all the Paddy jokes we in England told each other as kids?


----------



## Kieran

MacLeod said:


> Unlike the rest of the world?
> 
> Characterising an entire nation by what we see/know of its politicians and political history is an unreliable business. I wonder what conclusions I might draw about the Irish, based on either Mr Varadkar, or "The Troubles"...or even all the Paddy jokes we in England told each other as kids?


They're very unlike the rest of the world, and though I don't like Leo, the comparison is unfair on him. As for the Troubles, they were a terrorist campaign which most sane people would denounce. As for Paddy jokes, wouldn't it be wonderful if the actions of the Chinese government were just at the same level? The Chinese government are the most dangerous tyranny in the world today, and that, we cannot relativise by saying, yeah, but aren't we all kinda like them, in our way...

EDIT: and by the way, my apologies, but I thought it was clear that whenever I mentioned "the Chinese", that I was referring to their ruling party, and not the Chinese people as a whole


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> Unlike the rest of the world?
> 
> Characterising an entire nation by what we see/know of its politicians and political history is an unreliable business. I wonder what conclusions I might draw about the Irish, based on either Mr Varadkar, or "The Troubles"...or even all the Paddy jokes we in England told each other as kids?


I think when we make comments about countries generally like this, the assumption is that we are talking about the governments, not the people as a whole. Unless the comment specifically talks about the people as a whole.
In the case of China, you have an authoritarian regime. So it would be less fair to judge the entire people by the government than a more free country that allows its people to choose the government regularly.


----------



## Guest

Kieran said:


> They're very unlike the rest of the world, and though I don't like Leo, the comparison is unfair on him. As for the Troubles, they were a terrorist campaign which most sane people would denounce. As for Paddy jokes, wouldn't it be wonderful if the actions of the Chinese government were just at the same level? The Chinese government are the most dangerous tyranny in the world today, and that, we cannot relativise by saying, yeah, but aren't we all kinda like them, in our way...
> 
> EDIT: and by the way, my apologies, but I thought it was clear that whenever I mentioned "the Chinese", that I was referring to their ruling party, and not the Chinese people as a whole


Oh, I like Leo...which, in its own small way, supports my observation. I'm not comparing him to "the Chinese" merely observing that forming judgements - even about just the politicians - on what is reported to us, or on accumulated 'knowledge' is unreliable. I mean, I've lived in the UK my entire life, and taken an interest in politics since about 1973 (when I was about 14) but even I would be willing to concede that my dim views about many British politicians - not least Mr Johnson - may well be wide of the mark.

I don't subscribe to the view that "all politicians are corrupt, crooks, liars etc" - and I don't believe that is true of all Chinese politicians either. Having said that, I recognise that China, like Russia (and the USSR before it), the USA and the UK (to name four of the most important players on the world stage over the last 200-odd years, will have exercised power to suit the political needs of its people and its ruling elite - and that this has often been ruthless, barbaric, calculating, corrupt and, most importantly, incompatible with the needs of opposing powers.


----------



## Kieran

MacLeod said:


> Oh, I like Leo...which, in its own small way, supports my observation. I'm not comparing him to "the Chinese" merely observing that forming judgements - even about just the politicians - on what is reported to us, or on accumulated 'knowledge' is unreliable. I mean, I've lived in the UK my entire life, and taken an interest in politics since about 1973 (when I was about 14) but even I would be willing to concede that my dim views about many British politicians - not least Mr Johnson - may well be wide of the mark.
> 
> I don't subscribe to the view that "all politicians are corrupt, crooks, liars etc" - and I don't believe that is true of all Chinese politicians either. Having said that, I recognise that China, like Russia (and the USSR before it), the USA and the UK (to name four of the most important players on the world stage over the last 200-odd years, will have exercised power to suit the political needs of its people and its ruling elite - and that this has often been ruthless, barbaric, calculating, corrupt and, most importantly, incompatible with the needs of opposing powers.


I appreciate that, but again I would say, you're relatising things too much. One of my favourite songwriters, Leonard Cohen, once said, "be nice about America, because what comes after it will be terrible", and I take his meaning - he didn't say this to praise America. We all know that the west has plenty on its conscience, and if we extend it going back 200 years, there's a lot of fat to chew on, but also huge changes and learning curves too.

I wouldn't see much about the way the Chinese government conduct business and treat their people that compares to how things are done in the west, where the people at least have a say. Nothing is perfect in the west, but it's still a place you can live, be free to be what you think you are, and whine loudly and forcefully about the place you live in. Try that in Russia, or China...


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> I appreciate that, but again I would say, *you're relatising things too much*. One of my favourite songwriters, Leonard Cohen, once said, "be nice about America, because what comes after it will be terrible", and I take his meaning - he didn't say this to praise America. We all know that the west has plenty on its conscience, and if we extend it going back 200 years, there's a lot of fat to chew on, but also huge changes and learning curves too.
> 
> I wouldn't see much about the way the Chinese government conduct business and treat their people that compares to how things are done in the west, where the people at least have a say. Nothing is perfect in the west, but it's still a place you can live, be free to be what you think you are, and whine loudly and forcefully about the place you live in. Try that in Russia, or China...


What do you mean, he is relatising????

https://www.dictionary.com/misspelling?term=relatising&s=ts


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> What do you mean, he is relatising????
> 
> https://www.dictionary.com/misspelling?term=relatising&s=ts


"Relativising", my apologies...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> I appreciate that, but again I would say, you're relatising things too much. One of my favourite songwriters, Leonard Cohen, once said, "be nice about America, because what comes after it will be terrible", and I take his meaning - he didn't say this to praise America. We all know that the west has plenty on its conscience, and if we extend it going back 200 years, there's a lot of fat to chew on, but also huge changes and learning curves too.
> 
> I wouldn't see much about the way the Chinese government conduct business and treat their people that compares to how things are done in the west, where the people at least have a say. Nothing is perfect in the west, but it's still a place you can live, be free to be what you think you are, and whine loudly and forcefully about the place you live in. Try that in Russia, or China...





> 'Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…'


Winston S Churchill, 11 November 1947


----------



## Jacck

Christabel said:


> Only the New York Times when we had our fires. What was it now? Australia is burning!! A massive country where the fires are confined to sections of two states. Yep, that's not an exaggeration or anything from a rabidly fake and dishonest news outlet.
> 
> And we've had precious few coronavirus cases in the last day so we don't have much to worry about, actually. In Western Australia NONE. But we are concerned about debt; that is, intelligent people are worried about debt (as they should be). Our restrictions here are likely to be lifted within the next 3 weeks. But that's the good thing about Australians; they're interested in other parts of the world, not just their own.


Yes, I read that you have some crazy climate change denying president, who - when the country was burning and people and billions of poor animals were dying - could not be bothered to interrupt his holidays on some tropical island where he was enjoying himself with his mistress. My condolences.


----------



## erki

It seems to be this way that we kind of know or are sure what is wrong but can not describe what right is too well - few righteous individuals no included. It is like we can fantasise about the Hell rather elaborately, but fall short with Heaven.


----------



## Guest

Kieran said:


> I appreciate that, but again I would say, you're relatising things too much. One of my favourite songwriters, Leonard Cohen, once said, "be nice about America, because what comes after it will be terrible", and I take his meaning - he didn't say this to praise America. We all know that the west has plenty on its conscience, and if we extend it going back 200 years, there's a lot of fat to chew on, but also huge changes and learning curves too.
> 
> I wouldn't see much about the way the Chinese government conduct business and treat their people that compares to how things are done in the west, where the people at least have a say. Nothing is perfect in the west, but it's still a place you can live, be free to be what you think you are, and whine loudly and forcefully about the place you live in. Try that in Russia, or China...


Well, I can see why you think I'm 'relativising' but really, I'm not. My point is, quite simply, that inferences about all, or the majority of politicians currently running any country, should not be drawn on the basis of the limited evidence of the actions of one individual, or one significant event, or of the evolution and history of a country over time. Whatever the country, whatever the system, whatever the history

But, to avoid the risk of relativising, set aside all the other countries I've mentioned and consider whether the statement "the Chinese are still about power, corruption and revolution" can be scrutinised - on a secure evidence base - and shown to be true. It's a very broad statement, even if it's not meant to refer to anything more than the politicians.

I'm not saying that a case couldn't be put forward. But I wouldn't want to on the basis of my first hand knowledge - which is non-existent. Perhaps you've got a more secure evidence base that goes beyond an accumulation of second hand knowledge.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> Well, I can see why you think I'm 'relativising' but really, I'm not. My point is, quite simply, that inferences about all, or the majority of politicians currently running any country, should not be drawn on the basis of the limited evidence of the actions of one individual, or one significant event, or of the evolution and history of a country over time. Whatever the country, whatever the system, whatever the history
> 
> But, to avoid the risk of relativising, set aside all the other countries I've mentioned and consider whether the statement "the Chinese are still about power, corruption and revolution" can be scrutinised - on a secure evidence base - and shown to be true. It's a very broad statement, even if it's not meant to refer to anything more than the politicians.
> 
> I'm not saying that a case couldn't be put forward. But I wouldn't want to on the basis of my first hand knowledge - which is non-existent. Perhaps you've got a more secure evidence base that goes beyond an accumulation of second hand knowledge.


I think China stands out as a very unique case when compared to most Western countries. Here are a few reasons why.

In most Western countries, there certainly is a wide amount of disagreement about responses to this virus, criticism of the government or praise of it. But thus far, I'm not aware of any doctors or scientists or reporters being thrown into prison for saying anything other than the official government position.

Testing levels certainly are not what we want them to be, but what testing we have been doing in Western countries is being reported. The Chinese hid, distorted, and simply lied about their numbers. Just the other day they revised their official death toll up by EXACTLY 50% (well, technically exactly 50% would have resulted in a .5 on the end, so you have to round up). And they claim there have been exactly zero cases within their military.

Numerous Western nations have problematic relationships with Muslim immigrant populations, and it flares up frequently. But to my knowledge, there are no re-education camps like the Chinese have created for their Muslim Uighur population.

So comparisons of China to most Western nations are not only wrong in degree, but in kind.


----------



## Guest

^^^I'm not comparing China to other countries.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> ^^^I'm not comparing China to other countries.


Sorry then - I saw this statement


> Having said that, I recognise that China, like Russia (and the USSR before it), the USA and the UK (to name four of the most important players on the world stage over the last 200-odd years, will have exercised power to suit the political needs of its people and its ruling elite - and that this has often been ruthless, barbaric, calculating, corrupt and, most importantly, incompatible with the needs of opposing powers.


and thought that was a comparison. If not, no worries.


----------



## Flamme

I am quite confused how if trump is a russian agent he wages a crazy pressure warfare against the Iran and China, accusing them of all sorts of things that get laughed at in russian media...I think both obama and bush had much better relations at least with china...


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> It seems to be this way that we kind of know or are sure what is wrong but can not describe what right is too well - few righteous individuals no included. It is like we can fantasise about the Hell rather elaborately, but fall short with Heaven.


The worst and richest people have been telling the most gullible and stupid people that all of their problems are somehow caused by the smartest people and the poorest people. So during the communist revolution, lumpenproletariat hated the intellectuals and the burgoisie, because some sociopaths told them that they are the source of all their problems. The same pattern repeats itself also in democratic societies. World could be a paradise, if there were no stupid and evil people.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Sorry then - I saw this statement
> 
> and thought that was a comparison. If not, no worries.


You need to follow my argument through several posts. For your convenience, I'll repeat the main point I wanted to make.

*"Characterising an entire nation by what we see/know of its politicians and political history is an unreliable business." (#2823)
*
Since Kieran posted to say that he wasn't referring to the Chinese people more generally, I have since adjusted the point to:

*"My point is, quite simply, that inferences about all, or the majority of politicians currently running any country, should not be drawn on the basis of the limited evidence of the actions of one individual, or one significant event, or of the evolution and history of a country over time." (#2833)

*What it boils down to is that I reject the implications of a succession of posts Kieran made about the Chinese authorities that followed my exchange with flamme about whether the virus mutates significantly. See his post #2753


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> You need to follow my argument through several posts. For your convenience, I'll repeat the main point I wanted to make.
> 
> *"Characterising an entire nation by what we see/know of its politicians and political history is an unreliable business." (#2823)
> *
> Since Kieran posted to say that he wasn't referring to the Chinese people more generally, I have since adjusted the point to:
> 
> *"My point is, quite simply, that inferences about all, or the majority of politicians currently running any country, should not be drawn on the basis of the limited evidence of the actions of one individual, or one significant event, or of the evolution and history of a country over time." (#2833)
> 
> *What it boils down to is that I reject the implications of a succession of posts Kieran made about the Chinese authorities that followed my exchange with flamme about whether the virus mutates significantly. See his post #2753


Fair enough.Understood.


----------



## Kieran

MacLeod said:


> You need to follow my argument through several posts. For your convenience, I'll repeat the main point I wanted to make.
> 
> *"Characterising an entire nation by what we see/know of its politicians and political history is an unreliable business." (#2823)
> *
> Since Kieran posted to say that he wasn't referring to the Chinese people more generally, I have since adjusted the point to:
> 
> *"My point is, quite simply, that inferences about all, or the majority of politicians currently running any country, should not be drawn on the basis of the limited evidence of the actions of one individual, or one significant event, or of the evolution and history of a country over time." (#2833)
> 
> *What it boils down to is that I reject the implications of a succession of posts Kieran made about the Chinese authorities that followed my exchange with flamme about whether the virus mutates significantly. See his post #2753


I'm kind of confused now, which I have been all along on this China discussion today, to be honest. Firstly, we were at cross purposes, which is fair enough, we both know now that I was referring to the Chinese government, but then you did make a comparison to the west, in your post #2826 and I responded to that in the following post

You replied to this in post #2833, where you said, "My point is, quite simply, that inferences about all, or the majority of politicians currently running any country, should not be drawn on the basis of the limited evidence of the actions of one individual, or one significant event, or of the evolution and history of a country over time."

Actually, in a one party state, now ruled by essentially a "dictator for life", Xi Jinping, we can say that the government resides largely in the person of one individual, as dictatorships generally do, and so we can't infer there there are any other (or even a majority) of "politicians currently running the country." I don't think, following this, that it's a stretch to say that the ruling party in China is "all about power, corruption and revolution." The Power part of this is obvious. Any one party state that refuses to allow opposition to its rule is clearly all about Power. By extension, it's also about corruption, as Ekim has shown, and permanent revolution is the template of any government which styles itself as communist - and the Chinese Communist Party would have no quibble with my description there.

But now in post #2839, you say the real issue is you "reject the implications of a succession of posts Kieran made about the Chinese authorities that followed my exchange with flamme about whether the virus mutates significantly. See his post #2753."

In this post, Flamme says, "I cant really tell from this distance is trump doing a good job or not...2day I read that chinese scientists WARN that virus has thousands of mutations and that especially violent strain has hit italy and east coast of USA...That is strange in itself, how come so many changes in genetics and 1 really starts 2 think is it a bio weapon after all..."

That was on page 184. I made no mention of this post in a reply on that page, or any of the following three pages, though you replied on page 186, by saying that "One of the scientists leading the UK's efforts to produce a vaccine said on the BBC that thus far, Covid19 _doesn't mutate significantly."

_What I guess you disagree with is that I said we can't trust the Chinese? This is it? When I said they lie routinely, that they benefit from lies, and that they're not to be trusted. This is what you have a problem with?

EDIT: Just to be even clearer, I have no knowledge on whether or not the virus mutates, but I won't accept it mutates based solely on what the Chinese say. If the science community comes together eventually and finally agrees that it mutates, then I accept this. But I wouldn't believe it based upon what the Chinese say. I make this clarification so that I won't be accused of being a science denier for refusing to take the Dictators word for it. :lol:


----------



## Guest

^ In essence. Yes.

If your issue is with the Chinese PM, why not say so? That doesn't seem to me what you were arguing, if, as you now say, you really only meant the man at the top...but still referred to the Chinese generally.

You wanted to assert that the Chinese have a propensity to lie, when I wanted to assert that they weren't. Not least because it wasn't the Chinese Premier who was telling us about the virus mutating!


----------



## Kieran

MacLeod said:


> ^ In essence. Yes.
> 
> If your issue is with the Chinese PM, why not say so? That doesn't seem to me what you were arguing, if, as you now say, you really only meant the man at the top...but still referred to the Chinese generally.


Well, in my defense, in my first reply to Flamme I mentioned the "Chinese government" and I took it that this was understood in the following posts, until i realised it wasn't. But bear in mind that since Xi Jinping removed term limits to his power, we can say that he's virtually indistinguishable from "the Chinese government." this is not a transparent hierarchy, other than we know who rules, and it's him. So I don't think I was impugning the integrity of your average politburo apparatchik by what I said, but I certainly agree with your distinction, that the Chinese people in general shouldn't be accused, alongside the ruling party...

EDIT: Just to reply to your edit, I didn't say the Chinese population have a propensity for lying, but also, I wouldn't be confident that the Chinese scientists who say the virus mutates are allowed to speak without permission...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> Well, in my defense, in my first reply to Flamme I mentioned the "Chinese government" and I took it that this was understood in the following posts, until i realised it wasn't. But bear in mind that since Xi Jinping removed term limits to his power, we can say that he's virtually indistinguishable from "the Chinese government." this is not a transparent hierarchy, other than we know who rules, and it's him. So I don't think I was impugning the integrity of your average politburo apparatchik by what I said, but I certainly agree with your distinction, that the Chinese people in general shouldn't be accused, alongside the ruling party...
> 
> EDIT: Just to reply to your edit, I didn't say the Chinese population have a propensity for lying, but also, I wouldn't be confident that the Chinese scientists who say the virus mutates are allowed to speak without permission...


We know they aren't. All scientific findings on the coronavirus have to be cleared through the government before they can be made public. The Chinese government would call it quality control. I think most of the rest of us would call it something different . . .


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Only the New York Times when we had our fires. What was it now? Australia is burning!! A massive country where the fires are confined to sections of two states. Yep, that's not an exaggeration or anything from a rabidly fake and dishonest news outlet.


My comment was 'Nobody is butting into your politics.' The New York Times reporting on your fires, correct or incorrect, is not politics. Besides, the 'Nobody' above refers to people in this thread.


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> My comment was 'Nobody is butting into your politics.' The New York Times reporting on your fires, correct or incorrect, is not politics. Besides, the 'Nobody' above refers to people in this thread.


In fairness, this isn't an American forum, as such, it's a public forum. There are many non Americans here who'd love if American politics wasn't dragged into everything, but if it is, why can't we say something?


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> In fairness, this isn't an American forum, as such, it's a public forum. There are many non Americans here who'd love if American politics wasn't dragged into everything, but if it is, why can't we say something?


Haven't you had enough to talk about with Macleod or do you want to get into it with me.


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> Haven't you had enough to talk about with Macleod or do you want to get into it with me.


I don't mind who I get into it with, to be honest, but if you're telling people not to post on the forum about certain topics, I'd love to know why they shouldn't. Maybe you can't answer that, and that's okay too, but it wasn't so long ago that you accused another poster of acting like a moderator, and now you're acting like one yourself.

Why can't non Americans post on American politics if it's the topic, on a public forum?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> I don't mind who I get into it with, to be honest, but if you're telling people not to post on the forum about certain topics, I'd love to know why they shouldn't. Maybe you can't answer that, and that's okay too, but it wasn't so long ago that you accused another poster of acting like a moderator, and now you're acting like one yourself.
> 
> Why can't non Americans post on American politics if it's the topic, on a public forum?


Very valid point. With the exception of talking about Chinese politics, this thread is almost as much about the U.S. political response to the coronavirus as it is about the coronavirus, so I'd say anybody can comment. But apparently there is a lot of gate-keeping in this thread if you happen to post things that certain people don't like, and they'd rather you just sit quietly and let your betters talk.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Nope. I listen to nothing but 80's boy bands. :tiphat:


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Very valid point. With the exception of talking about Chinese politics, this thread is almost as much about the U.S. political response to the coronavirus as it is about the coronavirus, so I'd say anybody can comment. But apparently there is a lot of gate-keeping in this thread if you happen to post things that certain people don't like, and they'd rather you just sit quietly and let your betters talk.


That's it, and in fact, few governments have responded well to the crisis, and this is understandable, and I tend to give them all the benefit of the doubt, that they're doing their best and no matter what, they'll get it in the neck anyway, by tribalists or quarterbackers (as you say over there).

But once it's thrown into the discussion, why not just let it roll? We can't just allow comments that reflect our political view, it'd be boring and unenlightening if we did...


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> I don't mind who I get into it with, to be honest, but if you're telling people not to post on the forum about certain topics, I'd love to know why they shouldn't. Maybe you can't answer that, and that's okay too, but it wasn't so long ago that you accused another poster of acting like a moderator, and now you're acting like one yourself.
> 
> Why can't non Americans post on American politics if it's the topic, on a public forum?


For a start, have you missed the part about our avoiding politics or do you want the thread shut down? Are you a moderator yourself lifting those rules?

If one is talking about politics in another country one should do it with respect, objectively, and not like someone who is taking a political position acting as if they know as much about it as someone living in the middle of it here. What's worse is when the comments are based on reading media with an agenda and then posting a bunch of ignorant crap. Perhaps you haven't noticed that others from other countries here have talked about our politics, but they have, for the most part, done it with respect and objectivity.

If your country was in the middle of an election period and there had been a lot of political dysfunction going on, would you want people from other countries piling on and acting like they know everything as if they are a citizen of your country or as if they are going to be voting? So, if someone from another country posts here about my country in a flippant, ignorant, polarizing manner then they may hear from me. Deal with it!


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


>


I see this and I'm glad I'm practicing social distancing... :lol:


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> For a start, have you missed the part about our avoiding politics or do you want the thread shut down? Are you a moderator yourself lifting those rules?
> 
> If one is talking about politics in another country one should do it with respect, objectively, and not like someone who is taking a political position acting as if they know as much about it as someone living in the middle of it here. What's worse is when the comments are based on reading media with an agenda and then posting a bunch of ignorant crap. Perhaps you haven't noticed that others from other countries here have talked about our politics, but they have, for the most part, done it with respect and objectivity.
> 
> If your country was in the middle of an election period and there had been a lot of political dysfunction going on, would you want people from other countries piling on and acting like they know everything as if they are a citizen of your country or as if they are going to be voting? So, if someone from another country posts here about my country in a flippant, ignorant, polarizing manner then they may hear from me. Deal with it!


At least you've changed your tune, if not your tone. So you don't mind people posting about American politics - but you'll get to decide if they've been respectful. Of course, "doing it with respect" is the wrong way to do politics anywhere. It should be done exactly the opposite way, and as loudly as possible.

Am I allowed to agree with you that there's been a "lot of political dysfunction going on" in America, and if so, are you sensitive about this, to the extent that you dislike non Americans pointing it out to you?

Deal with it yourself.

I'm not bothered at all if somebody has a view - hostile or otherwise - about politics in Ireland. It's a public forum, and if you keep parading the circus in town, don't expect the natives not to point and giggle...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> That's it, and in fact, few governments have responded well to the crisis, and this is understandable, and I tend to give them all the benefit of the doubt, that they're doing their best and no matter what, they'll get it in the neck anyway, by tribalists or quarterbackers (as you say over there).
> 
> But once it's thrown into the discussion, why not just let it roll? We can't just allow comments that reflect our political view, it'd be boring and unenlightening if we did...


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million
Honestly, the U.S., in terms of deaths per million, isn't even at the top. In general, it looks like Western countries are the hardest hit, where governments have less power to simply force people to do what they want them to. I don't know if that is the cause, or merely a correlation. Obviously less populated countries aren't as hard hit.

So Europe is seeing some of the highest death rates (with the caveat of completely ignoring the likely bogus numbers that China has put out).

And like I've been saying, there are a lot of people making some pretty bold pronouncements about judgments when in reality, nobody really has good answers. The two previous coronavirus outbreaks were similar to the Ebola outbreak of a few years back - very scary, but very limited. High mortality, but low transmission. Only about 10,000 people worldwide contracted SARS and MERS combined. I'm certain that when most people started hearing rumors coming out of China of another coronavirus, they immediately thought of SARS, worried a little bit, but not that much, because with the disinformation China was spreading, there was no reason to think this was going to be anything worse than SARS. So they responded accordingly.

But you can warn about stuff like this all you want and still not be ready when some theoretical catastrophe actually comes to be. How exactly do you prepare for a pandemic of this magnitude? Stock up on supplies that would under any other scenario end up sitting in storage? A storm could come and destroy my house tomorrow. I pay homeowner's insurance, but that only helps me after the damage is done, and I have to wait to rebuild or buy elsewhere. I supposed it would be so much better to buy a backup house and have it ready and waiting in case I ever needed it, but that is so much more expensive and impractical than just the simpler plan of buying insurance (unless you are rich like socialist Bernie Sanders and can afford 3 ).


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> For a start, have you missed the part about our avoiding politics or do you want the thread shut down? Are you a moderator yourself lifting those rules?
> 
> *If one is talking about politics in another country one should do it with respect, objectively, and not like someone who is taking a political position acting as if they know as much about it as someone living in the middle of it here. *What's worse is when the comments are based on reading media with an agenda and then posting a bunch of ignorant crap. Perhaps you haven't noticed that others from other countries here have talked about our politics, but they have, for the most part, done it with respect and objectivity.
> 
> If your country was in the middle of an election period and there had been a lot of political dysfunction going on, would you want people from other countries piling on and acting like they know everything as if they are a citizen of your country or as if they are going to be voting? So, if someone from another country posts here about my country in a flippant, ignorant, polarizing manner then they may hear from me. Deal with it!


Again - you seem to be singling Kieran out here when Jacck does similar things but from a different political perspective (that I suspect confirms your biases more than Kieran's). I would not say all of Jacck's comments regarding American politics are done "with respect, objectively, and not like someone who is taking a political position acting as if they know as much about it as someone living in the middle of it here."

I'm fine with both of them commenting on American politics in whatever way they view it. Let's just be even-handed in criticism of non-Americans commenting on American politics that find their way into this thread.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> I see this and I'm glad I'm practicing social distancing... :lol:


Get yourself an outfit like they have, and I don't think you'll have any problem with people practicing social distancing with you! :lol:


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> At least you've changed your tune, if not your tone. So you don't mind people posting about American politics - but you'll get to decide if they've been respectful. Of course, "doing it with respect" is the wrong way to do politics anywhere. It should be done exactly the opposite way, and as loudly as possible.


It doesn't surprise me that you don't think people from other countries should be respectful, which includes being informed and objective, when talking about politics in another country. Apparently, you don't get it. I'm not surprised.



> Am I allowed to agree with you that there's been a "lot of political dysfunction going on" in America, and if so, are you sensitive about this, to the extent that you dislike non Americans pointing it out to you?


Oh so now it's about pointing things out to me/us. You're adding arrogance to your resume.



> I'm not bothered at all if somebody has a view - hostile or otherwise - about politics in Ireland. It's a public forum, and if you keep parading the circus in town, don't expect the natives not to point and giggle...


In case you didn't notice, I'm not talking about the 'natives'. Besides, if I were to comment about political issues in your country, I would try not to expose my ignorance on the subject.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Again - you seem to be singling Kieran out here when Jacck does similar things but from a different political perspective (that I suspect confirms your biases more than Kieran's). I would not say all of Jacck's comments regarding American politics are done "with respect, objectively, and not like someone who is taking a political position acting as if they know as much about it as someone living in the middle of it here."
> 
> I'm fine with both of them commenting on American politics in whatever way they view it. Let's just be even-handed in criticism of non-Americans commenting on American politics that find their way into this thread.


Why don't you go back and read this thread from the beginning. You dropped in here in the last few days and have no clue about what your talking about on this matter. I don't agree with everything Jacck posts. Particularly lately, his posts have been more moderate and not all that political. And, after all, I am a Republican. In the case at hand, my main issue is ignorant sniper-like posts from non-Americans who don't know what they're talking about.


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> It doesn't surprise me that you don't think people from other countries should be respectful, which includes being informed and objective, when talking about politics in another country. Apparently, you don't get it. I'm not surprised.
> 
> Oh so now it's about pointing things out to me/us. You're adding arrogance to your resume.
> 
> In case you didn't notice, I'm not talking about the 'natives'. Besides, if I were to comment about political issues in your country, I would try not to expose my ignorance on the subject.


"The natives" are the members of the public forum you're trawling your "dysfunction" across. I'll talk slower, if it helps.

"Respect", "informed", "objective." We should pm you to get a pass, eh? :lol:

Relax yourself, it's a public forum. Nobody should have to keep telling you that, but if they do, you can rely on me...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> "The natives" are the members of the public forum you're trawling your "dysfunction" across. I'll talk slower, if it helps.
> 
> "Respect", "informed", "objective." We should pm you to get a pass, eh? :lol:
> 
> Relax yourself, it's a public forum. Nobody should have to keep telling you that, but if they do, you can rely on me...


Funny, they were accusing me of acting like a moderator, trying to control what people posted.


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> "The natives" are the members of the public forum you're trawling your "dysfunction" across. I'll talk slower, if it helps.


Don't worry, you've been talking slowly enough with the emphasis on 'slow'.



> "Respect", "informed", "objective." We should pm you to get a pass, eh? :lol:


Anyone who needs guidance can feel free to pm me anytime..


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Funny, they were accusing me of acting like a moderator, trying to control what people posted.


And they say Americans don't do irony, eh? :devil:


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Why don't you go back and read this thread from the beginning. You dropped in here in the last few days and have no clue about what your talking about on this matter. I don't agree with everything Jacck posts. Particularly lately, his posts have been more moderate and not all that political. And, after all, I am a Republican. In the case at hand, my main issue is ignorant sniper-like posts from non-Americans who don't know what they're talking about.


I wasn't aware it was a requirement to read nearly 200 pages of posts in order to obtain permission to comment. Must of missed that in the TOS.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> And they say Americans don't do irony, eh? :devil:


Damn you, sir! I am an American! How dare you say anything about me without first jumping through my arbitrary hurdles in order to qualify to do so!


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I wasn't aware it was a requirement to read nearly 200 pages of posts in order to obtain permission to comment. Must of missed that in the TOS.


There is a specific statement in the TOS that says, '_Anyone using a handle that is a name spelled backwards who drops into the middle of a long thread should read said thread from the beginning before posting as if they already have._'


----------



## Kieran

Looking at another aspect of how the virus affects us, this is the effect on lower down sports people, who are trying to gain benefits from the governments. Personally, I would wonder in this case of the worlds 195th ranked tennis player, would he qualify, given that the tennis players union, the ATP, are looking into ways of giving a certain amount of money to players ranked 200 or below - this might have to change, in order to help players ranked higher than 200.

It cuts into the bigger picture question of how much governments can afford, in order to help people stay afloat.

You can read about here...


----------



## Jacck

Why Some People Get Sicker Than Others
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-immune-response/610228/


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> There is a specific statement in the TOS that says, '_Anyone using a handle that is a name spelled backwards who drops into the middle of a long thread should read said thread from the beginning before posting as if they have already._'


I dropped in at the end of the thread - or at least it was the end of the thread when I dropped into it. So no worries . . . that rule doesn't appear to apply to me. :tiphat:


----------



## Room2201974

DaveM said:


> There is a specific statement in the TOS that says, '_Anyone using a handle that is a name spelled backwards who drops into the middle of a long thread should read said thread from the beginning before posting as if they have already._'


Yes, and there is another statement in the TOS that says, _ "Anyone who reactivates an account after two years of not posting and immediately inserts himself into a political discussion shall forever give up the right not to be referred to as "suspicious."_


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> Why Some People Get Sicker Than Others
> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-immune-response/610228/


Interesting read. Didn't make it to the end yet, but got to the part where they talked about potential treatments for the cytokine storm - either "biologics" like antibodies that will block cytokines, which are not available in large quantities and very expensive, or corticosteroids, which are cheaper and already in use when you need to blunt immune responses, but have their downsides.

As a diabetic, I wonder whether I'm screwed either way. I'm more at risk for the virus, and steroids are very problematic for diabetics - they will launch your blood sugar through the roof. I had a really bad poison ivy reaction several years back where my reaction persisted for more than a month. So my doctor put me on steroids, and even going on a zero carbs diet for the duration, my blood sugar would regularly hit the high 300s to low 400s - very dangerous levels.

I still run into poison ivy from time to time - unavoidable on my property. Now I stick to a topical steroidal cream. Takes a lot longer, but less fear of it driving me into a diabetic coma.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> Yes, and there is another statement in the TOS that says, _ "Anyone who reactivates an account after two years of not posting and immediately inserts himself into a political discussion shall forever give up the right not to be referred to as "suspicious."_


I'm fine with "suspicious." 

Incidentally, suspicious in what way? Suspicious how? Like do I scare you? Do I intimidate you? Do you think I'm dangerous?


----------



## Room2201974

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I'm fine with "suspicious."
> 
> Incidentally, suspicious in what way? Suspicious how? Like do I scare you? Do I intimidate you? Do you think I'm dangerous?


Why, no! Actually, you inspire me sir! Its not everyday I go out of my way to change the lyrics to _Duke Of Earl_. In honor of your most recent contributions to this forum I hereby dub thee, Sir 52M18!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> Why, no! Actually, you inspire me sir! Its not everyday I go out of my way to change the lyrics to _Duke Of Earl_. In honor of your most recent contributions to this forum I hereby dub thee, Sir 52M18!


I admit you confuse me. I'm still trying to figure out what "Dup" is. And 52M18? Ah well, I'm curious, but not really that curious to expend any brain energy on your cryptic comments. Is it still funny if nobody laughs?


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Interesting read. Didn't make it to the end yet, but got to the part where they talked about potential treatments for the cytokine storm - either "biologics" like antibodies that will block cytokines, which are not available in large quantities and very expensive, or corticosteroids, which are cheaper and already in use when you need to blunt immune responses, but have their downsides.
> 
> As a diabetic, I wonder whether I'm screwed either way. I'm more at risk for the virus, and steroids are very problematic for diabetics - they will launch your blood sugar through the roof. I had a really bad poison ivy reaction several years back where my reaction persisted for more than a month. So my doctor put me on steroids, and even going on a zero carbs diet for the duration, my blood sugar would regularly hit the high 300s to low 400s - very dangerous levels.


Sorry to hear that. We have some serious disagreements, but I like to think that regardless of that we are empathetic to everyone these days, especially those particularly at risk. I have a worrisome pre-existing condition also. Keep safe. And now, back to our regular programming.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Sorry to hear that. We have some serious disagreements, but I like to think that regardless of that we are empathetic to everyone these days, especially those particularly at risk. I have a worrisome pre-existing condition also. Keep safe. And now, back to our regular programming.


My only ventures out of the house since the beginning of March have been driving to get take-out or going to the grocery store every 3 weeks - but my wife won't let me ever get out of the car, even with a mask (my company sent everybody hand sanitizer and N95 masks and sanitizing wipes in case we have to go see customers). Going crazy. I have had the same tank of gas for the last month.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My only ventures out of the house since the beginning of March have been driving to get take-out or going to the grocery store every 3 weeks - but my wife won't let me ever get out of the car, even with a mask (my company sent everybody hand sanitizer and N95 masks and sanitizing wipes in case we have to go see customers). Going crazy. I have had the same tank of gas for the last month.


Similar situation, but I have to do the shopping because my wife, God bless her, is not up to the complexities of doing it safely. It's a tough process: You open the store freezers for TV dinners after probably dozens have. You pick up produce and cans that may have been replaced by someone else (did they cough on it?). You go to the check stand and now take out your credit card with possibly the same gloves that just touched everything else and then tap in your code as if your are touching hundreds of other fingers. And on and on. Luckily I've got a lot of gloves and do several changes during the shopping process, but I come out of that store exhausted. The dirty trick of all this is going to be if it turns out -as I'm beginning to suspect- that practically no one gets covid19 from touching stuff...

Like you, my car has had the same tank of gas for weeks -can't even take advantage of the drop in the cost of gas.


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> Similar situation, but I have to do the shopping because my wife, God bless her, is not up to the complexities of doing it safely. It's a tough process: You open the store refrigerators for TV dinners after probably dozens have. You pick up produce and cans that may have been replaced by someone else (did they cough on it?). You go to the check stand and now take out your credit card with possibly the same gloves that just touched everything else and then tap in your code as if your are touching hundreds of other fingers. And on and on. Luckily I've got a lot of gloves and do several changes during the shopping process, but I come out of that store exhausted. The dirty trick of all this is going to be if it turns out -as I'm beginning to suspect- that practically no one gets covid19 from touching stuff...
> 
> Like you, my car has had the same tank of gas for weeks -can't even take advantage of the drop in the cost of gas.


Times 3 here, for the petrol tank.

The supermarket death run is the most weird part of the week. Firstly, we form a queue outside, since there's limits, but it's random where the man in charge will line up the queue. The other day was chaos - he had the line in the shade. A few moans and pointing fingers at the sunny side of the carpark caused him to sweat, so he ordered us to move, which we tried to do but then some late arrivals mooched up towards the door and he let them in.

Inside, I get the same creepy feeling sometimes when I pick up an item to check the best before date: if I don't want it and put it back, will somebody snitch on me? I feel guilty putting stuff back because of the fear others will have that I've soiled the whole shelf with mass-murdering, atrocity germs. Then there's the occasional dance, to avoid the oncoming traffic down the bean tin aisle. Embarrassed faces and flustered methods of holding ones breath, so as not to inhale death itself. It really is weird, but also, there's the serious fears expressed above, by DaveM, that we touch so many things which have already been touched, and that we may not always be safe, while at the same time, we maybe perfectly safe.

I definitely think this virus will be the defining thing in my life - but I feel it most for the young, who are going through something unnatural, when they should be outside, feeling safe holding hands with their first true loves. They're being burdened by a trauma they may have already internalised, and who knows how long it may take before they can begin to recover?


----------



## KenOC

It's looking like the situation in Russia may be more dire than the numbers show, and the numbers may be way low anyway. *This article* centers on the plight of medical workers without PPE, ventilators, gowns, and so forth.

Also, amusingly, it touches on Putin, who seems to have been taking lessons from Trump. :lol:



> Putin on Monday warned that the worst was ahead and said protection for health workers was crucial.
> 
> "Let me stress that increased, reliable protection from the infection must be ensured for medical personnel, and right now every single one of them counts," he said, adding that Russia had begun to step up production of protective gear as well as importing from China.
> 
> A day earlier, he said the situation was "fully under control." Earlier this month, he blamed the problems emerging in Russia's regions on "sloppiness."


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> It's looking like the situation in Russia may be more dire than the numbers show, and the numbers may be way low anyway. *This article* centers on the plight of medical workers without PPE, ventilators, gowns, and so forth.
> 
> Also, amusingly, it touches on Putin, who seems to have been taking lessons from Trump. :lol:


Perhaps there will be a silver lining to all this if nature culls the herd of those leading it over the cliff.


----------



## DaveM

Oh great, two cats in New York have tested positive for covid19.


----------



## Guest

I don't agree or disagree; just putting this out there.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Oh great, two cats in New York have tested positive for covid19.


I keep hearing how we have a shortage of tests. Why the hell are we wasting any at all on testing cats?


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I keep hearing how we have a shortage of tests. Why the hell are we wasting any at all on testing cats?


I think they are concerned that if people can transmit to cats then cats may be a vector to pass it on to other people.


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> Oh great, two cats in New York have tested positive for covid19.


In a Bronx zoo? I'd heard about this.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0406/1128701-tiger-bronx-zoo/



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I keep hearing how we have a shortage of tests. Why the hell are we wasting any at all on testing cats?


In the article, it says:



> "We tested the cat out of an abundance of caution and will ensure any knowledge we gain about Covid-19 will contribute ti the world's continuing understanding of his novel coronavirus," the WCS [Wildlife Conservation Society] said.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I keep hearing how we have a shortage of tests. Why the hell are we wasting any at all on testing cats?


I asked some cats your question and this is what they answered:


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I keep hearing how we have a shortage of tests. Why the hell are we wasting any at all on testing cats?


think it through, it's pretty obvious why this testing was so important.


----------



## eljr

DaveM said:


> I think they are concerned that if people can transmit to cats then cats may be a vector to pass it on to other people.


hard to believe someone needed this explained to them


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> hard to believe someone needed this explained to them


Are you a classically trained dick or do you just come by it naturally? Oh wait, that's right. You've been on this thread so much longer, you have clearance to be a dick.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I think they are concerned that if people can transmit to cats then cats may be a vector to pass it on to other people.


You at least can respond in a non-dick way.

My question was partly humorous. But I do get the reasoning behind it, I just think it was poor judgment for this moment in time. Understanding more about the virus is a worthy endeavor, but helping people right now seems a higher priority. And then it begs the question - now what? Take more tests away from humans to screen all the pet cats in the country or just euthanize them all like they will do with chickens sometimes over concerns of them spreading infection? If you think people are losing patience with the lockdown, what will they do when you tell them they have to snuff Garfield.

Personally, I'm cool with that. Dogs are clearly far superior. Oh, and before eljr gets all pompous again, let me clearly explain that last line was a joke.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Oh great, two cats in New York have tested positive for covid19.


You didn't post a link, are you talking about the tigers at the zoo? If so, that seems even less important right now. I seriously doubt exposure to big game cats is a major source of transmission. Statistically, if you do encounter a tiger, their claws and teeth are more of a concern than them sneezing on you.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> You at least can respond in a non-dick way.
> 
> My question was partly humorous. But I do get the reasoning behind it, I just think it was poor judgment for this moment in time...


What are you talking about? Are you purposely trying to make everything confrontational?

It was 2 house cats. Feel free to use that new search app called google.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> What are you talking about? Are you purposely trying to make everything confrontational?
> 
> It was 2 house cats. Feel free to use that new search app called google.


Calm down. I was capitalizing on the era of good feelings that I thought had begun between us. The dick comment was referring to eljr (see posts 2887 and 2888), not you.


----------



## Bulldog

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Calm down. I was capitalizing on the era of good feelings that I thought had begun between us. The dick comment was referring to eljr (see posts 2887 and 2888), not you.


Might be best to cool it with that word. The long arm of the law might snatch you off the yellow brick road.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Calm down. I was capitalizing on the era of good feelings that I thought had begun between us. The dick comment was referring to eljr (see posts 2887 and 2888), not you.


That additional comment about 'I just think it was a poor judgment...' didn't help. Go back and read your own post. How would I possibly assume you were talking about eljr when you post to me and start your post with 'You'. Given the 'era of good feelings', other than telling me to calm down, an apology would have been in order.


----------



## Bigbang

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I keep hearing how we have a shortage of tests. Why the hell are we wasting any at all on testing cats?


As you know by now the test are not the same and I am sure all (oops, don't take *all* literally :lol scientists need to know as much as possible about the virus so it is quite possible this knowledge will help us humans fight the virus. That said, I am against using cats or other creatures merely for our sake.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> That additional comment about 'I just think it was a poor judgment...' didn't help. Go back and read your own post. How would I possibly assume you were talking about eljr when you post to me and start your post with 'You'. Given the 'era of good feelings', other than telling me to calm down, an apology would have been in order.


But I didn't insult you. I thought you had read the posts just a few posts above to see my comments to eljr. I then responded to you about the cats post, rather than him, because unlike him, your response to my first comment was cordial. I assumed you had read my response to him and when I said "you," it was to distinguish you from him. I was being pleasant with you. What the hell? I was really starting to hope you weren't just like eljr and pianozach.

And the poor judgment comment was not directed at you. How do you get that? It was directed at whoever tested the cats. So unless that was you, how do you interpret that as an attack on you?


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> I think they are concerned that if people can transmit to cats then cats may be a vector to pass it on to other people.


I really do not think this concerns scientists on this point. First, there are studies on feline (cats/tigers etc) illnesses that cats get. Also cats have a different nature than dogs and if dogs were to easily catch the virus alarm bells might go off. Anyway, feral cats outside do not approach humans except for food but not contact. Inside cats can be quite affectionate and so humans can give it to their cats if they are, well, you know, sort of kissing them, you know around the mouth/nose. There are some cats that will lick people on the face but this can be avoided obviously. But, what of inside cats who go outside. Cats who know each other greet other cats by scents and sniffing, rubbing and so forth. And male cats get into fights. I have not read anything as of yet but this can be potentially alarming if we pass it on to household cats and they pass it onto other cats. I worry how this might transmit among cat colonies and back to other inside cats. While I still think the main issue of covid-19 transmission is by being around people who have it (much less likely to touch an object by someone who has it.) I do not think cats will pose a problem in giving it to humans due to their nature and it might well not be that feasible anyway. As it is we humans appear to be our own worst enemy and this is so clearly obvious that cats will not be on the radar as scientists would see the issue. That said, this is my opinion and I might be proven wrong (cats causing an issue transmission to humans) but I did think it through (I think).


----------



## tortkis

"R[sub]t[/sub] Covid-19" web site (https://rt.live/) shows each US state's effective reproduction (Rt) of the new coronavirus. Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person." When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.

3 weeks ago








Current








The site also shows the time trend of Rt in each state. Although there are ups and downs and there are states whose Rt is increasing recently, the overall trend seems to be downward, which is a good sign. The top 3 are the states that do not issue the shelter-in-place order: Arkansas (AR, Rt=2.3), Iowa (IA, Rt=1.8), and Nebraska (NE, Rt=1.8). The other 2 states without the shelter-in-place order are North Dakota (ND, Rt=1.1) and South Dakota (SD, Rt=0.38). South Dakota's Rt is low, but recently there was a report that a meat plant in South Dakota became "the nation's largest single-source coronavirus hot spot." These data seem to indicate that the stay-at-home orders are effective. The difficult question is when and how the restrictions should be relaxed.


----------



## KenOC

Bigbang said:


> I really do not think this concerns scientists on this point. First, there are studies on feline (cats/tigers etc) illnesses that cats get. Also cats have a different nature than dogs and if dogs were to easily catch the virus alarm bells might go off.


The Who announced that a 17-year old Pomeranian had *tested positive* for the coronavirus in Hong Kong on February 28. The dog died on March 18 shortly after being released from quarantine.


----------



## Radames

KenOC said:


> The Who announced that a 17-year old Pomeranian had *tested positive* for the coronavirus in Hong Kong on February 28. The dog died on March 18 shortly after being released from quarantine.





> Two New York cats become first U.S. pets to test positive for COVID-19


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-to-test-positive-for-covid-19-idUSKCN2243G6

I heard about zoo Tigers getting it too.


----------



## Guest

tortkis said:


> "R[SUB]t[/SUB] Covid-19" web site (https://rt.live/) shows each US state's effective reproduction (Rt) of the new coronavirus. Rt is "the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person." When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
> 
> 3 weeks ago
> View attachment 134419
> 
> 
> Current
> View attachment 134420
> 
> 
> The site also shows the time trend of Rt in each state. Although there are ups and downs and there are states whose Rt is increasing recently, the overall trend seems to be downward, which is a good sign. The top 3 are the states that do not issue the shelter-in-place order: Arkansas (AR, Rt=2.3), Iowa (IA, Rt=1.8), and Nebraska (NE, Rt=1.8). The other 2 states without the shelter-in-place order are North Dakota (ND, Rt=1.1) and South Dakota (SD, Rt=0.38). South Dakota's Rt is low, but recently there was a report that a meat plant in South Dakota became "the nation's largest single-source coronavirus hot spot." These data seem to indicate that the stay-at-home orders are effective. The difficult question is when and how the restrictions should be relaxed.


Given all the ballyhoo about New York, why isn't it much more prominent on the chart, leading the way with the worst R0 figure? Or is it so horrendous that it's off the chart?

Or could it be that now population is taken into account, we can see that Trump should be pointing the finger at some other governors/mayors and not Cuomo/De Blasio?

And whatever may be going on in China, at least living in a democracy, we can comfort ourselves that our government will tell us the truth...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ar-higher-than-previously-shown-idUSKCN21W0YA

And it has all the right priorities

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...op-care-homes-fear-worst-yet-to-come-covid-19


----------



## Guest

MacLeod said:


> Given all the ballyhoo about New York, why isn't it much more prominent on the chart, leading the way with the worst R0 figure? Or is it so horrendous that it's off the chart?


New York was bad because it was seeded early, mostly by travelers from Europe. The blowup in New York (and Seattle and California) was the warning that allowed other states to realize they needed shelter orders before they got as far out of hand.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Although it's encouraging to see a drop in cases/deaths day by day it's always on my mind that it could take a far longer time to get from 1000 cases to zero than it would to go from, say, 5000 to 1000. If this turns out to be the case and there is still no vaccine (or if the virus hasn't by some miracle burnt itself out) then the endgame could become more like a stalemate.


----------



## Guest

Baron Scarpia said:


> New York was bad because it was seeded early, mostly by travelers from Europe. The blowup in New York (and Seattle and California) was the warning that allowed other states to realize they needed shelter orders before they got as far out of hand.


I'm not sure I follow. As far as I can see, New York _wasn't_ (isn't) 'bad', once population density is taken into account. Unless I'm reading the graph wrong.

See this graph, a version of which is shown by our government on a daily basis. Note how 'bad' the US is compared to the rest!










The full set of slides presented at a daily briefing is also attached, fyi.


----------



## arpeggio

A friend of mine use to say that the reason the average IQ is a 100 is because for every one running around with an IQ of 150 there someone with an IQ of fifty.

Do I dare mention who one of the 50 is?


----------



## Art Rock

arpeggio said:


> A friend of mine use to say that the reason the average IQ is a 100 is because for every one running around with an IQ of 150 there someone with an IQ of fifty.
> 
> Do I dare mention who one of the 50 is?


You can tell him that the chance he has an IQ of 150 is 50% - either he has it or he has not.


----------



## mikeh375

some fun....


----------



## Room2201974

OTOH, maintaining a golf handicap of 7 is quite an accomplishment. Sorta balances everything out on the karmic wheel, doesn't it?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Baron Scarpia said:


> New York was bad because it was seeded early, mostly by travelers from Europe. The blowup in New York (and Seattle and California) was the warning that allowed other states to realize they needed shelter orders before they got as far out of hand.


As I understand it, there were also direct flights from the Wuhan area to NYC as well in the early days of this pandemic - back when the Chinese were hiding information and allowing people to freely travel out of that area to everywhere in the world.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> I'm not sure I follow. As far as I can see, New York _wasn't_ (isn't) 'bad', once population density is taken into account. Unless I'm reading the graph wrong.
> 
> See this graph, a version of which is shown by our government on a daily basis. Note how 'bad' the US is compared to the rest!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The full set of slides presented at a daily briefing is also attached, fyi.


It's true - on a per capita basis, the U.S. is not at the top of the list. Several European countries far exceed us.

That being said, supplies and material needed for treating, testing, and caring for patients are an absolute number, so it is less of a comfort taking into account that actual relative incidence is lower when you are still faced with as large of numbers as we are here.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Baron Scarpia said:


> New York was bad because it was seeded early, mostly by travelers from Europe. The blowup in New York (and Seattle and California) was the warning that allowed other states to realize they needed shelter orders before they got as far out of hand.


I'm not sure this is accurate. The first confirmed case of the virus in the U.S. was in Washington State. And it was tied to travel from China. There were people traveling directly to the U.S. from China - and specifically the Wuhan area - very early.

I suspect the higher rates in NYC are largely due to the high population density and it being such a major travel hub for the world - Asia and Europe. But it is also a failure of the local government. Even after all kinds of warning signals were going off, the mayor was telling people that if they weren't feeling sick, there was no reason they couldn't go to work. We now have ample evidence that the virus can be transmitted even by asymptomatic patients. Add to that other factors, like the more prevalent use of public transportation in NYC compared to really anywhere else in the country, and the fact that people were only told to wear masks on the subway last week, and it is the perfect scenario to help it spread like wildfire.


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> As I understand it, there were also direct flights from the Wuhan area to NYC as well in the early days of this pandemic - back when the Chinese were hiding information and allowing people to freely travel out of that area to everywhere in the world.


Yeah, back when they stopped internal flights from wuhan, but allowed international ones...


----------



## Iota

Kieran said:


> Yeah, back when they stopped internal flights from wuhan, but allowed international ones...


I don't know much about it, but I guess that could be logical, as there were quite a number of foreign nationals very keen to get home (who were generally quarantined on arriving I think). This presumably was their only hope.

As it was there were still many UK citizens appearing on the news after the flights had stopped, pleading for the UK government to bring them back.


----------



## Flamme

Lots of Onion helps...


----------



## Kieran

Iota said:


> I don't know much about it, but I guess that could be logical, as there were quite a number of foreign nationals very keen to get home (who were generally quarantined on arriving I think). This presumably was their only hope.
> 
> As it was there were still many UK citizens appearing on the news after the flights had stopped, pleading for the UK government to bring them back.


I get your point, and don't necessarily disagree, but it's a tough one, isn't it?

I see that every day there are still flights in and out of the main airports. This kind of is both necessary, but also defeats the purpose of a lockdown. I suppose the lockdowns were never going to be complete. Some people have been left stranded in foreign countries, just because there are no flights from there. Like everything in this crisis, it's difficult to say what's right or wrong...


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> Lots of Onion helps...


I love them, so that's me sorted!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> Yeah, back when they stopped internal flights from wuhan, but allowed international ones...


The New York Times published this really scary time-lapse graphic a while back that, based on cell phone tracking, showed people traveling from Wuhan to really everywhere in the world in the wake of the initial outbreak there. Very disturbing.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> I get your point, and don't necessarily disagree, but it's a tough one, isn't it?
> 
> I see that every day there are still flights in and out of the main airports. This kind of is both necessary, but also defeats the purpose of a lockdown. I suppose the lockdowns were never going to be complete. Some people have been left stranded in foreign countries, just because there are no flights from there. Like everything in this crisis, it's difficult to say what's right or wrong...


Did you see the story of the South African newlyweds who had gone on their honeymoon to some resort island in the Indian Ocean, and then got trapped there when they shut down all commercial flights in and out? They were the only guests at this resort hotel, and the hotel policy was such that the entire staff had to be there if even one guest was there. So they had the entire hotel staff waiting on them constantly. Nobody could go home. But it wasn't as wonderful as it sounds - their bill kept climbing and climbing. The only way to get out was to hire a private plane - which would cost thousands. They tried to organize other people who also needed to leave to share the cost, but last I heard, couldn't make it happen. Don't know if there has been any follow up, if they are still trapped there - I think that was a month ago.


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Did you see the story of the South African newlyweds who had gone on their honeymoon to some resort island in the Indian Ocean, and then got trapped there when they shut down all commercial flights in and out? They were the only guests at this resort hotel, and the hotel policy was such that the entire staff had to be there if even one guest was there. So they had the entire hotel staff waiting on them constantly. Nobody could go home. But it wasn't as wonderful as it sounds - their bill kept climbing and climbing. The only way to get out was to hire a private plane - which would cost thousands. They tried to organize other people who also needed to leave to share the cost, but last I heard, couldn't make it happen. Don't know if there has been any follow up, if they are still trapped there - I think that was a month ago.


Crikey! That's a romcom crossbreeding with a thriller. And spawning a horror.

Tom Hanks will definitely be in the movie, playing Harrison Ford's dad :lol:, with Ford getting his bride - Jennifer Lawrence - off the island after a shootout with a bunch of waiters and sexy chambermaids, all of whom are lurching like zombies and drooling with Covid... :devil:


----------



## Flamme

Kieran said:


> I love them, so that's me sorted!


I both a large ''stash'' of it yesterday, how is it called in Eire, in serbia it is ''young onion'' or ''mladi luk''...Ofcourse brushing teeth after is a must! lol


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> I both a large ''stash'' of it yesterday, how is it called in Eire, in serbia it is ''young onion'' or ''mladi luk''...Ofcourse brushing teeth after is a must! lol


Well, those ones are leeks, but they're in the onion family.

Lancet report says some 232,000 people could have been infected [in China] by February 20, compared with official total of 55,000


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> Crikey! That's a romcom crossbreeding with a thriller. And spawning a horror.
> 
> Tom Hanks will definitely be in the movie, playing Harrison Ford's dad :lol:, with Ford getting his bride - Jennifer Lawrence - off the island after a shootout with a bunch of waiters and sexy chambermaids, all of whom are lurching like zombies and drooling with Covid... :devil:


Nah - Liam Neeson is the new older action star.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Kieran said:


> Well, those ones are leeks, but they're in the onion family.


Sure they are leeks, K? They look like spring onions to me.


----------



## Kieran

elgars ghost said:


> Sure they are leeks, K? They look like spring onions to me.


I think you're right! Just looking at the list of close relatives of the spring onion - scallions, chives, garlic - I love them all too!


----------



## Sad Al

By August 2020 it's over? But the Trump administration bears direct responsibility for the unnecessary American death toll equal to eleven Twin Tower attacks on 9/11, and counting.

In other words, your President is a mass murderer.

http://patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-covid-19-pandemic-update.html


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Sad Al said:


> By August 2020 it's over? But the Trump administration bears direct responsibility for the unnecessary American death toll equal to eleven Twin Tower attacks on 9/11, and counting.
> 
> In other words, your President is a mass murderer.
> 
> http://patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-covid-19-pandemic-update.html


Good to see we aren't being hyperbolic on here.

Incidentally, what would be a necessary death toll. And per capita, there are several European countries with higher death rates. Do we have a whole slew of mass murderers out there?


----------



## DaveM

Sad Al said:


> By August 2020 it's over? But the Trump administration bears direct responsibility for the unnecessary American death toll equal to eleven Twin Tower attacks on 9/11, and counting.
> 
> In other words, your President is a mass murderer.
> 
> http://patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-covid-19-pandemic-update.html


How many deaths are there in your country?


----------



## Sad Al

DaveM said:


> How many deaths are there in your country?


Only 172 deaths in a population of over 5 millions. A close relative of mine is among the first 150 people who got it in my country, tries to walk daily but gets tired.


----------



## aleazk

Trump was already indefensible way before this. I mean, children in cages and neonazis being "good people" was already enough for me, thanks...


----------



## Art Rock

Sad Al said:


> Only 172 deaths in a population of over 5 millions. A close relative of mine is among the first 150 people who got it in my country, tries to walk daily but gets tired.


Finland. A country on my bucket list.


----------



## Jacck

Art Rock said:


> Finland. A country on my bucket list.


I was there twice. A lot of lakes and woods. We were also chased by wasps there. And the Finns absolutely do not know how to drink alcohol. They have no decency. Every Friday evening, all of them get so terribly wasted


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Sad Al said:


> Only 172 deaths in a population of over 5 millions. A close relative of mine is among the first 150 people who got it in my country, tries to walk daily but gets tired.


And were all 172 of those deaths necessary then, or is there a certain threshold, above which they become unnecessary? At what point do we prosecute the leader as a mass murderer? 100? 1000? 10,000?

I absolutely love it. First Trump gets accused of being a dictator, and then people accuse him of not being enough of a dictator.


----------



## KenOC

Baron Scarpia said:


> New York was bad because it was seeded early, mostly by travelers from Europe. The blowup in New York (and Seattle and California) was the warning that allowed other states to realize they needed shelter orders before they got as far out of hand.


There is certainly no blowup in California, where the infection rate is about a quarter of the national average.


----------



## DaveM

Calling Trump a mass-murderer is rather unfair. There’s no doubt in my mind that any president would have initially made mistakes regardless of political persuasion. That said, Trump doesn’t know what he doesn’t know and IMO his failure will be having not listened to experts at crucial turning points and having declared that a number of things were perfect and beautiful when they were not. Also, the behavior of appearing to take a reasonable position one moment and then tweeting the opposite the next moment, presumably to placate his base, has been disconcerting.

However, when he finally got the message of how severe the pandemic was, he did come through on a number of things. It’s just too bad that the relative chaos that surrounds him and his constant attempts to evade responsibility may end up ‘trumping’ credit he might have deserved when history is written.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> There is certainly no blowup in California, where the infection rate is about a quarter of the national average.


I'm sure the fact that more people drive cars there as opposed to New York City probably plays a big role. In general, most states west of the Mississippi just don't have the population density as those east of it - more distance right off the bat helps. Still - San Francisco especially I would have thought to see higher, but it doesn't seem to be the case. One of the more dense urban areas in the state, particularly the city itself, on the tip of the peninsula.


----------



## Art Rock

The combination of high population density, dependence on public transport and the need to take elevators at work and often at home because of the high-rise buildings is probably killing.


----------



## isorhythm

New York's leaders deserve a significant share of the blame. Compare with California and Washington, which shut down earlier.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-york-antibody-study-early-results
Interesting - they've done some limited antibody testing, and they are estimating that as much as 13.9% of New Yorkers may have been infected with coronavirus, in some areas as high as over 20%. It seems everywhere we do this kind of testing - there was one a week or two ago in California - we find out that the infection rate is significantly higher than thought. If that number is true, it means that nearly 3 million New Yorkers were exposed to the virus. If that is true, that drops the mortality rate there to around 0.5%. That would be good news. Still worse than the flu, but better than other estimates.

But obviously, even with a lower mortality rate, with that many infected, you are just going to have high mortalities.


----------



## DaveM

My son is a manager for the US Census and works in an office, now temporarily shut down, with a lot of people at close quarters. In the middle of February he got a bad ‘cold’ that lasted 3 weeks, unusual for a cold, and it didn’t respond the way his previous colds had. It apparently spread rapidly throughout the office. Just before he got sick, he remembers one particular employee that was coughing a lot without covering her mouth.


----------



## mmsbls

There are 2 huge problems with present antibody tests. Their sensitivity (identifying those who have been exposed to Covid-19) and specificity (those who have not) are not high enough. Apparently there are over 90 tests being marketed today, and many are close to useless because there are so many false positives and negatives. Further, we don't know if someone with antibodies to Covid-19 is actually immune to the disease.

Testing must get much better, quicker, and vastly more widely available. My understanding is that we are still nowhere near ready to use testing as a means to open up the economy.


----------



## Room2201974

How serious is the virus? Serious enough to have Nanker Phlege weigh in. Has a very apocalyptic groove to it. A dance number for sure, as long as your partner is six feet away.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> There are 2 huge problems with present antibody tests. Their sensitivity (identifying those who have been exposed to Covid-19) and specificity (those who have not) are not high enough. Apparently there are over 90 tests being marketed today, and many are close to useless because there are so many false positives and negatives. Further, we don't know if someone with antibodies to Covid-19 is actually immune to the disease.
> 
> Testing must get much better, quicker, and vastly more widely available. My understanding is that we are still nowhere near ready to use testing as a means to open up the economy.


True - we don't know if the antibodies actually confer full immunity. But we don't get full immunity to flu with the flu vaccine, but even when the vaccine doesn't match up with the present strain, it still greatly mitigates the severity of the disease.


----------



## KenOC

Here's a chart showing the major countries with the highest rates of death from the coronavirus. The US, though it has the highest absolute number of cases, comes in at number ten when deaths are adjusted for population.


----------



## aleazk

KenOC said:


> Here's a chart showing the major countries with the highest rates of death from the coronavirus. The US, though it has the highest absolute number of cases, comes in at number ten when deaths are adjusted for population.


I think that type of ratio only makes sense for small countries, where there's some constant flow of citizens from one part of the country to another. For large countries which are so big that each individual province can be considered a separated country by itself (like China and the US), I think it can be misleading, that's why you see mostly European countries at the top. I would partition the US in three, East, Center, and West, for this type of ratio.


----------



## aleazk

isorhythm said:


> New York's leaders deserve a significant share of the blame. Compare with California and Washington, which shut down earlier.


I think the situation in NYC was pretty much inevitable, considering its many intrinsic peculiarities, mentioned by Art Rock and Insubordinate.


----------



## Kieran

Dublin crime figures report the first day ever without burglaries recorded last Friday, a rare side benefit of Covid:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...as-virus-keeps-everyone-at-home-39150547.html


----------



## mountmccabe

mmsbls said:


> There are 2 huge problems with present antibody tests. Their sensitivity (identifying those who have been exposed to Covid-19) and specificity (those who have not) are not high enough. Apparently there are over 90 tests being marketed today, and many are close to useless because there are so many false positives and negatives. Further, we don't know if someone with antibodies to Covid-19 is actually immune to the disease.
> 
> Testing must get much better, quicker, and vastly more widely available. My understanding is that we are still nowhere near ready to use testing as a means to open up the economy.


It's really difficult to find something that is rare; false positives overwhelm the true ones. That's why they've stuck to mostly only testing people with severe symptoms, those who have had contact with other confirmed cases, and those that have tested negative for other more common diseases such as the flu.

You can also increase accuracy by performing multiple tests on multiple samples from each person, but, again, there's just not the capacity.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> Dublin crime figures report the first day ever without burglaries recorded last Friday, a rare side benefit of Covid:
> 
> https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...as-virus-keeps-everyone-at-home-39150547.html


Good to see even the thieves are observing the lockdown. Of course, given that most people are sitting in their homes 24/7, that makes the home burglaries more problematic than usual.:lol:


----------



## KenOC

Just like Seattle.

BBC: "Up to half" of deaths in Europe have been in care homes, the World Health Organization says.

Meanwhile, in my neighborhood, *Yahoo*: 74 At Huntington Beach Nursing Home Have Coronavirus, 2 Die. (That's 50 residents and 24 staff.)


----------



## mountmccabe

aleazk said:


> I think the situation in NYC was pretty much inevitable, considering its many intrinsic peculiarities, mentioned by Art Rock and Insubordinate.


NYC was always going to be hit hard, but on March 2 Mayor de Blasio was tweeting movie recommendations and encouraging New Yorkers to go out while California cities and counties had already declared emergencies. If that's too early he tweeted from Chelsea Market on March 9.

More hard hit and more dense cities and counties in California implemented local shutdowns ahead of statewide measures. They also started with recommendations, and moved to banning events and so on. Governor Newsom (CA) didn't have to shut down rural areas at the same time as, say, San Francisco because Mayor Breed had already taken action (to name one mayor that was closing down events while de Blasio was recommending food at Chelsea Market). Meanwhile Governor Cuomo (NY) had to take measures to cover all of New York - which also has many rural areas - because Mayor de Blasio would not.

And with exponential (or nearly) growth, a few days make a huge difference.


----------



## mountmccabe

And, to be clear, I love NYC. I took my family to Chelsea Market when they visited in the lead-up to my wedding. And Mayor Breed shut down events I had tickets to in San Francisco (but was not going to be able to make anyway) and Governor Inslee shut down events I had tickets to here in Seattle (but was trying to convince myself not to go to) while Mayor de Blasio was "considering" a stay-home order for New York City, which he never issued.

NYC was always going to be hit because of the density and because so many people visit from all over (I had planned to be in NYC right now, actually) but Mayor de Blasio's bad approach to COVID-19 has made it more devastating than it would have otherwise been.


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Good to see even the thieves are observing the lockdown. Of course, given that most people are sitting in their homes 24/7, that makes the home burglaries more problematic than usual.:lol:


Nobody wants to risk catching the plague off a few potentially worthless trinkets :devil:


----------



## KenOC

Here's another list of the US's states sorted by per capita death rate.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> Here's another list of the US's states sorted by per capita death rate.


Why couldn't I be sheltering in place in Hawaii????


----------



## KenOC




----------



## Phil loves classical

Kieran said:


> They're very unlike the rest of the world, and though I don't like Leo, the comparison is unfair on him. As for the Troubles, they were a terrorist campaign which most sane people would denounce. As for Paddy jokes, wouldn't it be wonderful if the actions of the Chinese government were just at the same level? The Chinese government are the most dangerous tyranny in the world today, and that, we cannot relativise by saying, yeah, but aren't we all kinda like them, in our way...
> 
> EDIT: and by the way, my apologies, but I thought it was clear that whenever I mentioned "the Chinese", that I was referring to their ruling party, and not the Chinese people as a whole


Agree. The Chinese gov't has a stranglehold on the nation, it's not on the individuals. Their corruption can't be ignored, they shouldn't be let off the hook. They also stand to benefit from the oil crash that they helped to create (I'd say unintentionally, but still).


----------



## elgar's ghost

KenOC said:


> Here's another list of the US's states sorted by per capita death rate.


A similar picture would emerge in the UK - top-heavy in terms of cases and deaths in Metropolitan London, where over a tenth of the UK population live. I gather that possibly up to a quarter of all cases and deaths are in this area, which is disproportionate to the rest of the country.


----------



## pianozach

DaveM said:


> Oh great, two cats in New York have tested positive for covid19.


Yeah, heard that, and the tiger as well.

Today my obese cat (22lbs.) starting making extraordinarily strange hacking sounds, completely different from any sound I'd ever heard him make before.

Our two cats are mostly indoor cats, with some occasional outings to our small front yard. The only living things they encounter are ants (and an occasional lizard) in the yard, and us. My wife was sick back in December, but that was before any typical folk had even heard of COVID-19. She figured she had the flu, and even stayed home rather than coming to a Christmas party with me (friends who actually pay me to sit and play the piano for most of the evening). I had a sore throat for a couple of weeks in March. Otherwise, we've been healthy.

Now my wife is half-joking that she could have been infected back in December.

And the day after we hear that cats have tested positive, our cat is having coughing fits.


----------



## erki

I start feeling really sorry for Americans.
Maybe MMS prices will come down now.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...avirus-disinfectant-idea-200424030220581.html


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> I start feeling really sorry for Americans.
> Maybe MMS prices will come down now.


The Democrats do not need to invent any election spots. Just take any of his rallies or corona breefings and supply it with laughing people, something akin to Benny Hill shows.


----------



## aleazk

WTFFFFFFF???






This gotta be the dumbest thing he ever said during this pandemic... and he had quite a share of those, but this one... wow! Give the man a cigar... with clorox...


----------



## Jacck

Let's talk about Biden and China
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/trump-biden-china-debt-205475


----------



## Joe B

aleazk said:


> WTFFFFFFF???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This gotta be the dumbest thing he ever said during this pandemic... and he had quite a share of those, but this one... wow! Give the man a cigar... with clorox...


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> Just like Seattle.
> 
> BBC: "Up to half" of deaths in Europe have been in care homes, the World Health Organization says.
> 
> Meanwhile, in my neighborhood, *Yahoo*: 74 At Huntington Beach Nursing Home Have Coronavirus, 2 Die. (That's 50 residents and 24 staff.)


we lost 24 in one week at our local nursing home which counts the people who died there not the ones that they sent out to hospitals!


----------



## Room2201974

Mainlining Lysol now, _Citrus Meadows_....quite a rush.....very clean.... And it disenfects the syringe at the same time.


----------



## Flamme

aleazk said:


> WTFFFFFFF???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This gotta be the dumbest thing he ever said during this pandemic... and he had quite a share of those, but this one... wow! Give the man a cigar... with clorox...


This made my day lol


----------



## aleazk

_"Did China really tell us all of what happened there?"_


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> The Democrats do not need to invent any election spots. Just take any of his rallies or corona breefings and supply it with laughing people, something akin to Benny Hill shows.


Be careful going down that road - have you heard any recent interviews Joe Biden has done? He stumbles on his words, and sounds like a man in the grips of senility. That and his son's problematic ties to China (which is not very popular right now with Americans).


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Be careful going down that road - have you heard any recent interviews Joe Biden has done? He stumbles on his words, and sounds like a man in the grips of senility. That and his son's problematic ties to China (which is not very popular right now with Americans).


I am not a fan a Joe Biden. I agree that he is too old and is in clear cognitive decline. He has also a lot of skeletons in his past, ties to China one of them. If he becomes president, he himself will be almost invisible. I have no idea why the Democrats picked the weakest of all their candidates, maybe because he is a centrist and can thus attract also never Trump Republicans.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> Let's talk about Biden and China
> https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/trump-biden-china-debt-205475


I'm not sure that really is as big a bombshell as you might think. Every major company in this country has business dealings with China. It is practically inevitable. Very few electronic gadgets that we use are made anywhere but China. Hollywood is so dependent on revenues from China that they tiptoe around Chinese sensibilities in movie subject matter to make sure they can get good box office numbers there. Even the NBA is so beholden to China that they initially denounced an NBA owner for daring to express solidarity with Hong Kong residents protesting for basic rights.

But there is a difference between having Chinese firms loan your company money for legitimate business dealings, and having companies with ties to the Chinese government paying large money to the recently recovered drug addict son of the sitting vice president for jobs that he is in no way qualified for.


----------



## Flamme

Immediately reminded me of


----------



## Totenfeier

Jacck said:


> I am not a fan a Joe Biden. I agree that he is too old and is in clear cognitive decline. He has also a lot of skeletons in his past, ties to China one of them. If he becomes president, he himself will be almost invisible. I have no idea why the Democrats picked the weakest of all their candidates, maybe because he is a centrist and can thus attract also never Trump Republicans.


I live in the 'merican South, by pure chance and inertia, and this is what I can tell you about Joe Biden 'round these parts: He ain't black. He ain't a Muslim. He ain't a black Muslim. He ain't a black Muslim woman communist. He ain't Michael Obama (you heerd me). 'Least he ain't indecent. Shure, he likes to grab him some - who don't? He'll do for the sick lib dems, who all need to be wiped out t' save th' country. Truuump! Guns! Liberate! Freedom! If the gubment says you don' need uh gun - yew need uh Gun! MAGA! All rat, I'ze tied off; hand me that needle with the Cloroxy in it there, Cletus.


----------



## aleazk

Totenfeier said:


> I live in the 'merican South, by pure chance and inertia, and this is what I can tell you about Joe Biden 'round these parts: He ain't black. He ain't a Muslim. He ain't a black Muslim. He ain't a black Muslim woman communist. He ain't Michael Obama (you heerd me). 'Least he ain't indecent. Shure, he likes to grab him some - who don't? He'll do for the sick lib dems, who all need to be wiped out t' save th' country. Truuump! Guns! Liberate! Freedom! If the gubment says you don' need uh gun - yew need uh Gun! MAGA! All rat, I'ze tied off; hand me that needle with the Cloroxy in it there, Cletus.


Unfortunately, viewing all of what's happening, I'm afraid that dialogue is too realistic for our own good...


----------



## mountmccabe

pianozach said:


> Yeah, heard that, and the tiger as well.
> 
> Today my obese cat (22lbs.) starting making extraordinarily strange hacking sounds, completely different from any sound I'd ever heard him make before.
> 
> Our two cats are mostly indoor cats, with some occasional outings to our small front yard. The only living things they encounter are ants (and an occasional lizard) in the yard, and us. My wife was sick back in December, but that was before any typical folk had even heard of COVID-19. She figured she had the flu, and even stayed home rather than coming to a Christmas party with me (friends who actually pay me to sit and play the piano for most of the evening). I had a sore throat for a couple of weeks in March. Otherwise, we've been healthy.
> 
> Now my wife is half-joking that she could have been infected back in December.
> 
> And the day after we hear that cats have tested positive, our cat is having coughing fits.


I am sorry to hear that and I hope your cat recovers, from whatever it is.

One of the frustrating things is going for walks but having to stay away from dogs I see. My neighbors have a new puppy and I got to meet her a few times back in January and February, but we've had to stay away since then. it seems dogs haven't been able to get SARS-CoV-2 but that doesn't mean they can't spread it (which is one of the reasons talk of immunity sounds ridiculous; even if someone that recovers from COVID-19 can't get sick again for a while, they could still spread it to others, just not over a shorter timeframe than a new host).

But yes, cats are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, though it isn't expected that human-cat transmission (either way) is a common way the virus spreads. Also of note, the tests performed on tigers and other cats are different than the ones performed on humans.

I was pretty sick back in November; a sinus infection moved to a chest infection which led to bronchitis. It was more severe than I've had for at least a very long time, but it certainly wasn't COVID-19. Epidemiology says it just isn't possible. There certainly were more cases in the US than we knew of in January (though we knew that already) and in more places (such as the person near Santa Clara that passed away February 6) but I've seen people (elsewhere!) suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 was in the US back in the fall... and that's essentially impossible.


----------



## aleazk

Here we are in allergy season, so everyone is sneezing, thing which makes all people even more paranoic. Quite an unfortunate confluence of things!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Totenfeier said:


> I live in the 'merican South, by pure chance and inertia, and this is what I can tell you about Joe Biden 'round these parts: He ain't black. He ain't a Muslim. He ain't a black Muslim. He ain't a black Muslim woman communist. He ain't Michael Obama (you heerd me). 'Least he ain't indecent. Shure, he likes to grab him some - who don't? He'll do for the sick lib dems, who all need to be wiped out t' save th' country. Truuump! Guns! Liberate! Freedom! If the gubment says you don' need uh gun - yew need uh Gun! MAGA! All rat, I'ze tied off; hand me that needle with the Cloroxy in it there, Cletus.


I've got Southern relatives in Georgia and Alabama - that is really condescending and just really highlights why you get people driven to a Trump. Criticize him all you want - and much of it is justified - but he doesn't condescend to normal people, make them feel like he feels superior to them. I read this, and I seriously wonder how you think you would ever convince any of these people to switch to your side. I'm not aware of anybody ever really changing their vote because someone insulted them enough to convince them they were wrong.


----------



## aleazk

Room2201974 said:


> Mainlining Lysol now, _Citrus Meadows_....quite a rush.....very clean.... *And it disenfects the syringe at the same time*.


Hey! Two birds with one _shot_ (pun intended)! The US prasadaaant is a savvy bussiness man, very economic!


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> Yeah, heard that, and the tiger as well.
> 
> Today my obese cat (22lbs.) starting making extraordinarily strange hacking sounds, completely different from any sound I'd ever heard him make before.
> 
> Our two cats are mostly indoor cats, with some occasional outings to our small front yard. The only living things they encounter are ants (and an occasional lizard) in the yard, and us. My wife was sick back in December, but that was before any typical folk had even heard of COVID-19. She figured she had the flu, and even stayed home rather than coming to a Christmas party with me (friends who actually pay me to sit and play the piano for most of the evening). I had a sore throat for a couple of weeks in March. Otherwise, we've been healthy.
> 
> Now my wife is half-joking that she could have been infected back in December.
> 
> And the day after we hear that cats have tested positive, our cat is having coughing fits.


He's obese, coughing like a duck, and breathing like he's drowning. He's not eating (his favorite thing to do other than nap), and has barely had any water.

We took him to the vet today . . . looking at $550-650 for exam, x-rays, and blood work. The vet is thinking obstructive polyp, and believes it's life threatening.

I imagine that anaesthetic and surgery will put that well over $1000, which we simply don't have. The vet doesn't do payment plan . . . credit card or cash.

Damn.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> He's obese, coughing like a duck, and breathing like he's drowning. He's not eating (his favorite thing to do other than nap), and has barely had any water.
> 
> We took him to the vet today . . . looking at $550-650 for exam, x-rays, and blood work. The vet is thinking obstructive polyp, and believes it's life threatening.
> 
> I imagine that anaesthetic and surgery will put that well over $1000, which we simply don't have. The vet doesn't do payment plan . . . credit card or cash.
> 
> Damn.


You should look into pet medical insurance. I thought it was ridiculous back in the day - until I had one incident with my dog that cost a fortune. Now I do the insurance - and of course we haven't had any incidents since!!!


----------



## Jacck

aleazk said:


> Hey! Two birds with one _shot_ (pun intended)! The US *prasadaaant *is a savvy bussiness man, very economic!


in Czech language, prase = pig, so we sometimes call our president prasedent, among other nicknames.


----------



## aleazk

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I've got Southern relatives in Georgia and Alabama - that is really condescending and just really highlights why you get people driven to a Trump. Criticize him all you want - and much of it is justified - but he doesn't condescend to normal people, make them feel like he feels superior to them. I read this, and I seriously wonder how you think you would ever convince any of these people to switch to your side. I'm not aware of anybody ever really changing their vote because someone insulted them enough to convince them they were wrong.


The right to insult and ridiculize the ridiculous is on the constitution... or it should be because it's fukin true and you know it!  Of course, there are exceptions, but so what. We have seen images of heavily armed people violating the quarentine with stupid "reasons". I find that outrageous. People that need a rifle to "defend their home" rather than an ordinary hand gun definitely have something else in mind...






It's just... _WRONG!_


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

aleazk said:


> The right to insult and ridiculize the ridiculous is on the constitution... or it should be because it's fukin true and you know it!  Of course, there are exceptions, but so what. We have seen images of heavily armed people violating the quarentine with stupid "reasons". I find that outrageous. People that need a rifle to "defend their home" rather than an ordinary hand gun definitely have something else in mind...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's just... _WRONG!_


The rifle allows you to accurately take out the person at a larger range. Handguns are problematic beyond a certain range, unless you are really good.

I didn't say you can stop people from insulting. I'm just saying you aren't going to persuade anybody with really insulting, condescending language like that. Whatever else he is, Trump is popular with normal people because he doesn't condescend to them. He saves all his insults for those who think they are superior.


----------



## aleazk

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> The rifle allows you to accurately take out the person at a larger range. Handguns are problematic beyond a certain range, unless you are really good.
> 
> I didn't say you can stop people from insulting. I'm just saying you aren't going to persuade anybody with really insulting, condescending language like that. Whatever else he is, Trump is popular with normal people because he doesn't condescend to them. He saves all his insults for those who think they are superior.


I don't buy that about rifles. I mean, true, I guess what you say is technically true, I'm not a gun expert (here you can only buy a hand gun and if you are outside your house or outside the shooting range, you must have it unloaded.) But it's still an overkill to have a rifle for home defense.

Those insults are directed to the Trump base, they are not going to be convinced by any argument to change their vote. So, the only thing left is the old and venerable art of political ridiculization, which goes back to the great Jonathan Swift.

Guns are a serious thing, not something you have to compensate if you think your dic.k is not larger enough or some shi.t like that


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

aleazk said:


> I don't buy that about rifles. I mean, true, I guess what you say is technically true, I'm not a gun expert (here you can only buy a hand gun and if you are outside your house or outside the shooting range, you must have it unloaded.) But it's still an overkill to have a rifle for home defense.
> 
> Those insults are directed to the Trump base, they are not going to be convinced by any argument to change their vote. So, the only thing left is the old and venerable art of political ridiculization, which goes back to the great Jonathan Swift.
> 
> Guns are a serious thing, not something you have to compensate if you think your dic.k is not larger enough or some shi.t like that


But the interesting thing is that the Trump base is not the old GOP base. There are lots of former Democrats in there as well that for whatever reason were drawn to Trump over Hillary (I have my theories). And before the speculation about racism kicks in, remember that we learned in 2016 that a lot of former Obama voters switched to vote for Trump. Presumably the Democrats would want to draw those voters back to their side. Telling them all they were dumb hicks for voting for Trump ain't gonna do it.


----------



## DaveM

From a post further above: I think we should consider Michael Obama.


----------



## Jacck

but one thing you have to give Trump, he is remarkably consistent








I disagree with his views and I think he totally misunderstands how the world operates, but his opinions have stayed the same. The problem is he lacks education, and at the same time is unwilling to learn or to listen to those who know more than him


----------



## Totenfeier

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I've got Southern relatives in Georgia and Alabama - that is really condescending and just really highlights why you get people driven to a Trump. Criticize him all you want - and much of it is justified - but he doesn't condescend to normal people, make them feel like he feels superior to them. I read this, and I seriously wonder how you think you would ever convince any of these people to switch to your side. I'm not aware of anybody ever really changing their vote because someone insulted them enough to convince them they were wrong.


I'm still upset from standing in line at a convenience store early on the morning after Election Day 2008 and hearing one say to another, looking at the newspaper rack, "Well, there goes the country." Just like that. Right out loud. Assuming uncritically that no one COULD POSSIBLY disagree. My county is SCARLET, FLAMING red. You may accuse me of being condescending if you like, but I find that it's tough for me to descend to the level of comprehending and/or approving of such a worldview. I would like to believe that people could eventually, by taking critical thought, ASCEND upward a bit from that.


----------



## TxllxT

In the Czech Republic molecular biologist Dr. Soňa Peková has come forward with serious doubts about the 'natural' origin of the SARS-Co-2 virus. https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/czech-molecular-biologist-dr-sona-pekova-explains-in-layman-terms-that-covid-19-virus-originates-from-a-lab/


----------



## Jacck

TxllxT said:


> In the Czech Republic molecular biologist Dr. Soňa Peková has come forward with serious doubts about the 'natural' origin of the SARS-Co-2 virus. https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/czech-molecular-biologist-dr-sona-pekova-explains-in-layman-terms-that-covid-19-virus-originates-from-a-lab/


I don't know. The article you link seems to be a translation of this Czech article
https://aeronet.cz/news/ceska-molek...iry-ze-na-serveru-nature-medicine-se-objevil/
but Aeronet is a know Russian disinformation "news" server
https://www.evropskehodnoty.cz/fungovani-ceskych-dezinformacnich-webu/weby_list/

Just like the Russians spread disinformation how the Americans created HIV, so they are willing to spread disinformation now. I find it really strange, that Americans would create such a virus, then would bring it to China, where it would mutate and infect also Europeans.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

TxllxT said:


> In the Czech Republic molecular biologist Dr. Soňa Peková has come forward with serious doubts about the 'natural' origin of the SARS-Co-2 virus. https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/czech-molecular-biologist-dr-sona-pekova-explains-in-layman-terms-that-covid-19-virus-originates-from-a-lab/


I like how so many people, if they proclaim something like this, are proclaimed "experts in their field." The notion that the U.S. government was instructing U.S. scientists to shut up about any data that this virus was constructed, and also coordinating with the Chinese really strains credulity. Sure. Right. As we all know, U.S. scientists are the absolute biggest fans of Donald Trump, and would never do anything to cross him, and that Trump and China are cooperating. That makes total sense, as opposed to "this virus naturally mutated and jumped species into humans."


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> Russians spread disinformation


Specially this vague argumentation around Defender 2020 sounds very suspicious.
BTW Trump has declared his talk about Clorox as being sarcastic and stupid people(doctors, scientists, press) around him just did not get it.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Totenfeier said:


> I'm still upset from standing in line at a convenience store early on the morning after Election Day 2008 and hearing one say to another, looking at the newspaper rack, "Well, there goes the country." Just like that. Right out loud. Assuming uncritically that no one COULD POSSIBLY disagree. My county is SCARLET, FLAMING red. You may accuse me of being condescending if you like, but I find that it's tough for me to descend to the level of comprehending and/or approving of such a worldview. I would like to believe that people could eventually, by taking critical thought, ASCEND upward a bit from that.


"Well, there goes the country" is what I say every time a Democrat gets elected. Sure, somebody may be saying it out of some racist motivation, but those words in and of themselves don't tell you that. Republicans say that whenever a Democrat gets elected president, and Democrats say that whenever a Republican gets elected president. That's politics. Democrats have been saying that every 10 minutes, at least, since Election Day 2016, and before that, they were saying George W. Bush was Hitler and stole the election.


----------



## TxllxT

Jacck said:


> I don't know. The article you link seems to be a translation of this Czech article
> https://aeronet.cz/news/ceska-molek...iry-ze-na-serveru-nature-medicine-se-objevil/
> but Aeronet is a know Russian disinformation "news" server
> https://www.evropskehodnoty.cz/fungovani-ceskych-dezinformacnich-webu/weby_list/
> 
> Just like the Russians spread disinformation how the Americans created HIV, so they are willing to spread disinformation now. I find it really strange, that Americans would create such a virus, then would bring it to China, where it would mutate and infect also Europeans.


Dr. Soňa Peková is giving interviews on YouTube and Czech Radio. I find the quick framing with 'Russian disinfo' very weak & suspect. She has investigated the virus itself and comes forward with conclusions that exclude a natural origin.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> "Well, there goes the country" is what I say every time a Democrat gets elected. Sure, somebody may be saying it out of some racist motivation, but those words in and of themselves don't tell you that. Republicans say that whenever a Democrat gets elected president, and Democrats say that whenever a Republican gets elected president. That's politics. Democrats have been saying that every 10 minutes, at least, since Election Day 2016, and before that, they were saying George W. Bush was Hitler and stole the election.


Democrat supporters have been out to get Trump for 4 years now, and relentlessly. Even before he was elected. Nobody has had the intelligence to ask WHY the people felt they had to have that. How bad must the alternative have been, down there in 'the swamp', talking about 'little girls' and 'glass ceilings' when Americans had no jobs and nothing to eat. We're seeing this today with "Tanty" Pelosi talking about the ice creams in her fridge. There's a deep contempt there for the 'deplorable' Americans, which the whole world can see. These are the people who do all the fighting in wars, the tax paying and the hard yakka. This is the reason for Trump's election; the "swamp". Once upon a time the Democrats cared for the working class; now they look down on them with condescension, even derision - all the while pretending they care.

Trump is a loose cannon and just not terribly bright; that's true. But he does have EXCELLENT economic instincts and political smarts when it comes to dealing with ruthless barbarians and bullies. Where is "little rocket man" these days? Trump shut him up!! But what Trump is really trying to do is return America to its position as global hegemon: I feel this is a lost cause because the US has a hollowed out middle class!!

But don't expect the Democrats and their enfeebled candidate to figure any of that out, notwithstanding Trump's silly comments about antiseptic. He says those things because he knows they predictably send the Left into descending spirals of loathing. And these work like clockwork; every time.


----------



## Jacck

here you have the video with subtitles




I am not convinced by her argumentation. How would you prove or disprove that a virus natural or artificial? Does she know the genome of all the coronaviruses from bats, pangolins etc? The paper in Nature claims that they have done comparative genetic analyses of related coronaviruses and the virus is likely natural. Why does she not publish her evidence? She can do it on medrxiv even without the peer review process.

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200317-andersen-covid-19-coronavirus.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9


----------



## eljr

Christabel said:


> There's a deep contempt there for the 'deplorable' Americans


There sure is and it's well deserved.



> He says those things because he knows they predictably send the Left into descending spirals of loathing. And these work like clockwork; every time.


he says these things because he is a devote MORON.

The rest of your post is ridiculous. You clearly know nothing of economics.

Peace


----------



## Guest

Ah, but you see, that's the elegant symmetry of it all. 20 plus million registered as unemployed and the other political party talking about ice cream and disinfectant. You don't need a PhD in economics for that. I'm sorry you see your fellow Americans as deplorable; I think that says far more about YOU than it does about them.

I was watching a documentary recently about the fall of Berlin and the diary entry was read from a 14y/o boy who said the Americans were kind to the starving Germans. I remarked to spouse, "these would be one and the same deplorables".

Hatred gets you nowhere, mate, no matter how much your pretense of 'peace. And the Left does hatred so very well. It could be an Olympic sport for them!!


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> The rifle allows you to accurately take out the person at a larger range. Handguns are problematic beyond a certain range, unless you are really good.


Only a dumb ignorant hillbilly hick with a Southern accent and a family tree shaped like a telephone pole (according to some in this thread anyway) and thus a likely Trump voter  would use a rifle. You really need a decent shotgun for the spread and stopping power. And they're definitely the best for those zombie attacks!

The effete (oops, I mean elite) left, being genetically superior, knows this, which is why you never see an initiative from them to ban shotguns.


----------



## eljr

Christabel said:


> Ah, but you see, that's the elegant symmetry of it all. 20 plus million registered as unemployed and the other political party talking about ice cream and disinfectant. You don't need a PhD in economics for that. I'm sorry you see your fellow Americans as deplorable; I think that says far more about YOU than it does about them.
> 
> I was watching a documentary recently about the fall of Berlin and the diary entry was read from a 14y/o boy who said the Americans were kind to the starving Germans. I remarked to spouse, "these would be one and the same deplorables".
> 
> Hatred gets you nowhere, mate, no matter how much your pretense of 'peace. And the Left does hatred so very well. It could be an Olympic sport for them!!


Clue: the core tenet of Trumpism is hate.

hope this helps!

peace


----------



## Room2201974

You folks are acting like you've never seen a 73 year old drug addict with a ferret on his head stand in front of the WH podium and tell Americans to drink bleach and shine a light up their butts to kill a virus six weeks into a global pandemic, and it shows.


----------



## mmsbls

This thread is on the coronavirus. While politics does a play a role in policies to combat the virus, it's easy to discuss those policies without veering off into pure politics. Pure politics is not to be discussed here. Given how often the thread has deviated into garbage politics, we may simply start deleting purely political posts or worse.


----------



## Joe B

***********************************


----------



## KenOC

eljr said:


> Clue: the core tenet of Trumpism is hate.
> 
> hope this helps!
> 
> peace


From my youth and possibly apropos:

They're rioting in Africa
They're starving in Spain
There's hurricanes in Florida
And Texas needs rain
The whole world is festering with unhappy souls
The French hate the Germans, the Germans hate the Poles
Italians hate Yugoslavs, South Africans hate the Dutch
And I don't like anybody very much!


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Democrat supporters have been out to get Trump for 4 years now, and relentlessly. Even before he was elected. Nobody has had the intelligence to ask WHY the people felt they had to have that. How bad must the alternative have been, down there in 'the swamp', talking about 'little girls' and 'glass ceilings' when Americans had no jobs and nothing to eat. We're seeing this today with "Tanty" Pelosi talking about the ice creams in her fridge. There's a deep contempt there for the 'deplorable' Americans, which the whole world can see. These are the people who do all the fighting in wars, the tax paying and the hard yakka. This is the reason for Trump's election; the "swamp". Once upon a time the Democrats cared for the working class; now they look down on them with condescension, even derision - all the while pretending they care.
> 
> Trump is a loose cannon and just not terribly bright; that's true. But he does have EXCELLENT economic instincts and political smarts when it comes to dealing with ruthless barbarians and bullies. Where is "little rocket man" these days? Trump shut him up!! But what Trump is really trying to do is return America to its position as global hegemon: I feel this is a lost cause because the US has a hollowed out middle class!!
> 
> But don't expect the Democrats and their enfeebled candidate to figure any of that out, notwithstanding Trump's silly comments about antiseptic. He says those things because he knows they predictably send the Left into descending spirals of loathing. And these work like clockwork; every time.


So you're back on your 'I know everything about American politics'. Well you don't. As for your 'Nobody has the intelligence...'., who do you think you are, some savant about our two parties and our citizens? Take a hike. This is why politics is not allowed here because some people know how to keep any subject that might relate somewhat to politics still within subject of the OP and others like yourself don't.

Edit: the above was written before I saw mmsbls' post. Since the post I'm referring to -which I find very insulting- is still there and my post is about reasonable behavior and not politics, I'm going to leave mine up.


----------



## aleazk

Christabel said:


> Democrat supporters have been out to get Trump for 4 years now, and relentlessly. Even before he was elected. Nobody has had the intelligence to ask WHY the people felt they had to have that. How bad must the alternative have been, down there in 'the swamp', talking about 'little girls' and 'glass ceilings' when Americans had no jobs and nothing to eat. We're seeing this today with "Tanty" Pelosi talking about the ice creams in her fridge. There's a deep contempt there for the 'deplorable' Americans, which the whole world can see. These are the people who do all the fighting in wars, the tax paying and the hard yakka. This is the reason for Trump's election; the "swamp". Once upon a time the Democrats cared for the working class; now they look down on them with condescension, even derision - all the while pretending they care.
> 
> Trump is a loose cannon and just not terribly bright; that's true. But he does have EXCELLENT economic instincts and political smarts when it comes to dealing with ruthless barbarians and bullies. Where is "little rocket man" these days? Trump shut him up!! *But what Trump is really trying to do is return America to its position as global hegemon*: I feel this is a lost cause because the US has a hollowed out middle class!!
> 
> But don't expect the Democrats and their enfeebled candidate to figure any of that out, notwithstanding Trump's silly comments about antiseptic. He says those things because he knows they predictably send the Left into descending spirals of loathing. And these work like clockwork; every time.


What? Trump said many times that he's not interested in globalism, and wants to concentrate on the US to its inside. His base is also not interested in the US's global position, they just want their old jobs back and their town free of brown people, as it was when they were young. And that's exactly what's a lost cause. The manual jobs they had belong to another era, which has been superseded in the 21st century, those jobs are not going to get back, in the same sense we don't need hat makers today. And the brown people is there to stay, the US is by definition a country of immigrants, and even more in today's global world. As for Trump, he's of course very clever when it comes to the media and how to manipulate those people. He gives a shi.t about their lost jobs, etc., he just wanted to run for the presidency to boost his image and profile, and in an ego trip. I don't think he even wants more money, it's all about his ego, just listen him speak, it's all about how big, smart, rich, better than you, me, Fauci or whoever.


----------



## aleazk

Jacck said:


> but one thing you have to give Trump, he is remarkably consistent
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I disagree with his views and I think he totally misunderstands how the world operates, but his opinions have stayed the same. *The problem is he lacks education, and at the same time is unwilling to learn or to listen to those who know more than him*


Perfect and concise descripition. Bravo! I would give you your cigar, but Trump submerged it in bleach...


----------



## aleazk

KenOC said:


> Only a dumb ignorant hillbilly hick with a Southern accent and a family tree shaped like a telephone pole (according to some in this thread anyway) and thus a likely Trump voter  would use a rifle. You really need a decent shotgun for the spread and stopping power. And they're definitely the best for those zombie attacks!
> 
> The effete (oops, I mean elite) left, being genetically superior, knows this, which is why you never see an initiative from them to ban shotguns.


Well, have fun in your gun obsessed country. I guess some people see those very frequent and horrific mass shootings with rifles and even automatic weapons as another Hollywood movie. Well, the rest of the world sees it with shock and horror. And, hey!, the browner the victims, the more spice for the movie!


----------



## aleazk

mmsbls said:


> This thread is on the coronavirus. While politics does a play a role in policies to combat the virus, it's easy to discuss those policies without veering off into pure politics. Pure politics is not to be discussed here. Given how often the thread has deviated into garbage politics, we may simply start deleting purely political posts or worse.


Well, when the president of the most powerful country on Earth, and who is in charge of dealing with the pandemic in his hard hitted country and has a global influence due to its prominent role in the UN, WHO, etc., says we should try to inject bleach into our lungs, then it's impossible not to pull back your chair a bit and discuss for a moment how in hell we ended into this surreal mess.

And I disagree with DaveM, any person from any country can discuss it, since the US ultimately has a big global influence (it's very likely that the vaccine will be developed there.) Of course, only the well informed should comment.

Me, I am of course not a Yank, but I admire many things in that country (and some others I find revolting), thus I follow what happens there closely, from manifold sources.

Furthermore, I enjoy chatting with Yanks here, I find they have a peculiar character which I like.


----------



## DaveM

aleazk said:


> And I disagree with DaveM, any person from any country can discuss it, since the US ultimately has a big global influence (it's very likely that the vaccine will be developed there.) Of course, only the well informed should comment.


I'm not saying any person from another country can't discuss it. Have you not noticed that a number of others have been? There's a right way to do it and a wrong way to do it. Your last sentence above is relevant. I would add being objective to being informed. In any event, Christabel's post was purely political and presumptuous among other things. At the very least, posts like that will get this thread shut down..


----------



## aleazk

DaveM said:


> I'm not saying any person from another country can't discuss it. Have you not noticed that a number of others have been? There's a right way to do it and a wrong way to do it.


Okay, I agree with that.


----------



## mmsbls

OK, I realize people really like discussing politics. How about people take that part of the discussion to the Groups? You can talk politics much more freely there. You don't have to occasionally pretend you're still on topic. You can even push the ToS a bit (but maybe just a bit) further down there. You won't be bothering those who really want to discuss the virus and hate political _nonsense_.


----------



## bz3

Totenfeier said:


> I live in the 'merican South, by pure chance and inertia, and this is what I can tell you about Joe Biden 'round these parts: He ain't black. He ain't a Muslim. He ain't a black Muslim. He ain't a black Muslim woman communist. He ain't Michael Obama (you heerd me). 'Least he ain't indecent. Shure, he likes to grab him some - who don't? He'll do for the sick lib dems, who all need to be wiped out t' save th' country. Truuump! Guns! Liberate! Freedom! If the gubment says you don' need uh gun - yew need uh Gun! MAGA! All rat, I'ze tied off; hand me that needle with the Cloroxy in it there, Cletus.


You should consider a physical relocation if your ethnic animus is so deep-seated that you feel the need to post this. Maybe something like Haiti would be more up your alley.


----------



## bz3

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I've got Southern relatives in Georgia and Alabama - that is really condescending and just really highlights why you get people driven to a Trump. Criticize him all you want - and much of it is justified - but he doesn't condescend to normal people, make them feel like he feels superior to them. I read this, and I seriously wonder how you think you would ever convince any of these people to switch to your side. I'm not aware of anybody ever really changing their vote because someone insulted them enough to convince them they were wrong.


Amusingly, the majority of the people in his state who voted for Joe Biden are themselves black. Imagine him mocking black voters with a smattering of ebonics, references to 40s and black and milds and purple drank, all very jovially. I do not believe others would find that so funny.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> here you have the video with subtitles
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am not convinced by her argumentation. How would you prove or disprove that a virus natural or artificial? Does she know the genome of all the coronaviruses from bats, pangolins etc? The paper in Nature claims that they have done comparative genetic analyses of related coronaviruses and the virus is likely natural. Why does she not publish her evidence? She can do it on medrxiv even without the peer review process.
> 
> https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200317-andersen-covid-19-coronavirus.html
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9


That's the nature of conspiracy theories. Data is nice, but not necessary. Lack of evidence is just further proof of the cover up!


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> That's the nature of conspiracy theories. Data is nice, but not necessary. Lack of evidence is just further proof of the cover up!


She says she doesn't know if it's artificial. (17:38) so let's not get carried away.

And here's an article saying it's not artificial...

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature

Just another scientist with another opinion? Or a definitive counter-response?



TxllxT said:


> In the Czech Republic molecular biologist Dr. Soňa Peková has come forward with serious doubts about the 'natural' origin of the SARS-Co-2 virus. https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/czech-mo...ms-that-covid-19-virus-originates-from-a-lab/


This article grossly exaggerates what she said in the interview.


----------



## erki

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> That's the nature of conspiracy theories. Data is nice, but not necessary. Lack of evidence is just further proof of the cover up!


I am willing to believe that Dr. Pekova findings are legit but not the conclusions. But we have been worked on to accept the idea of conspiracy for so many years(all the way through cold war) by countless films, stories and social/mass media lately. Any cover-up would add fire to the flame. So there is strong possibility that if military develops bio-weapon then it may get loose by human error and kill everybody and no official would admit that any of these programs ever existed.


----------



## Jacck

MacLeod said:


> She says she doesn't know if it's artificial. (17:38) so let's not get carried away.
> This article grossly exaggerates what she said in the interview.


typical work of Russian disinformation. They spin what she said and supply additional narratives, how the virus was made in the US and brought to China. She never said any of that. She was misused and abused by the Russian propaganda


----------



## DaveM

TxllxT said:


> Dr. Soňa Peková is giving interviews on YouTube and Czech Radio. I find the quick framing with 'Russian disinfo' very weak & suspect. She has investigated the virus itself and comes forward with conclusions that exclude a natural origin.


She needs some help tying that mask on correctly.


----------



## Guest

[sorry. deleted] .


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> typical work of Russian disinformation. They spin what she said and supply additional narratives, how the virus was made in the US and brought to China. She never said any of that. She was misused and abused by the Russian propaganda


All that's as maybe. You don't have to attribute this to Russian disinformation to see that it is an unreliable source. I'd just take no notice at face value.

BTW - is DimSumDaily also a Russian propaganda vehicle?


----------



## Jacck

MacLeod said:


> All that's as maybe. You don't have to attribute this to Russian disinformation to see that it is an unreliable source. I'd just take no notice at face value.
> 
> BTW - is DimSumDaily also a Russian propaganda vehicle?


see my post #2990
I don't know about DimSumDaily, but I know with absolute certainty about aeronet


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> see my post #2990
> I don't know about DimSumDaily, but I know with absolute certainty about aeronet


I saw it already. My point is that you only have to focus on what she actually "said" (my Czech being non-existent and the subtitles being unreliable) and what others have said in other more reliable sources (just because they're not Youtube) to know that even if you take her opinion at face value, that's all it is. An opinion. Much of the rest of what she "says" is somewhat impenetrable too, but the Czechs are not the only ones who have, allegedly, come up with simpler, alternative ways to test for Covid-19.

As for the "Hackathon Test" - she makes it sound as if this is a test for the virus approved by the Czech President. It isn't. I'd not heard of 'hackathon" until I looked it up. It's a process for problem-solving, used for all kinds of things.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hackathon


----------



## TxllxT

Molecular biologist Dr. Soňa Peková is putting her scientific career at risk with publishing her findings: the SARS-Co-2 virus is not natural but laboratory-made. If the bio-lab of Wuhan is the location, than this activity was financed with American funding. Cui bono to begin here geopolitical dodo talk? "Ze Russians!" That's preposterous. Why would it not be possible that in a bio-lab some corona virus was made maximally aggressive by human doing? Why sticking to the 'wet market' idea at all cost? This reminds me of the ideology around not wearing mouth caps that has turned dogmatic in Holland (many people in Dutch nursing homes got infected because the personnel were forced to work without the necessary safety-measures). So again: Why does the SARS-Co-2 virus dogmatically have to be natural? Proof it.


----------



## Guest

TxllxT said:


> Molecular biologist Dr. Soňa Peková is putting her scientific career at risk with publishing her findings: the SARS-Co-2 virus is not natural but laboratory-made.


Except that's not what she said.

She's just one scientist among many working on the virus. Why should we give her voice a special hearing? Just because she's offering some inconclusive 'evidence' that goes against the mainstream narrative? Just because a story is mainstream, doesn't mean it must be a conspiracy to cover the truth.

What do you make of the article I offered as a counter to her story?

And how can anyone here 'prove' anything? This is an internet discussion forum about classical music. There may be legit scientists here who can offer an informed opinion - but it'll still just be an opinion.


----------



## TxllxT

The point Molecular biologist Dr. Soňa Peková is making, is not a historical blame game but future-directed: does the SARS-Co-2 virus provide those who survived Covid-19 with immunity, or not, or with some unreliable kind of 'immunity'? This immunity trouble is related to the origin of the virus. It could be a possible reason why the virus is so nasty, not even making survivors resistent....


----------



## Jacck

TxllxT said:


> Molecular biologist Dr. Soňa Peková is putting her scientific career at risk with publishing her findings: the SARS-Co-2 virus is not natural but laboratory-made. If the bio-lab of Wuhan is the location, than this activity was financed with American funding. Cui bono to begin here geopolitical dodo talk? "Ze Russians!" That's preposterous. Why would it not be possible that in a bio-lab some corona virus was made maximally aggressive by human doing? Why sticking to the 'wet market' idea at all cost? This reminds me of the ideology around not wearing mouth caps that has turned dogmatic in Holland (many people in Dutch nursing homes got infected because the personnel were forced to work without the necessary safety-measures). So again: Why does the SARS-Co-2 virus dogmatically have to be natural? Proof it.


I think she already quit her scientific career and is now director of some private lab for testing, and as far as I know she did not publish any findings. She merely expressed her opinion in an interview that she is unsure if the virus is natural, and Russian propaganda took it and distorted and spun it. She surely never said anything about any Wuhan lab.


----------



## Flamme

In my country everything is slowly opening but the chief doc warns about 2econd outbreak in late autmn...


----------



## Jacck

'No evidence' that recovering from Covid-19 gives people immunity, WHO says
https://www.france24.com/en/2020042...-from-covid-19-gives-people-immunity-who-says


----------



## Jacck

A SPOONFUL OF CLOROX - A Randy Rainbow Song


----------



## Sad Al

A theory. God exists. Covid-19 is nothing but a psychological test. A cosmic fistful of scare and pain. God wants to see how you react.


----------



## DaveM

O


Jacck said:


> 'No evidence' that recovering from Covid-19 gives people immunity, WHO says
> https://www.france24.com/en/2020042...-from-covid-19-gives-people-immunity-who-says


I'm surprised that the statement is so general. There is more reason to believe so far that there is a fair amount of immunity conferred. For one thing, by now, a number of previously infected health care workers have returned to work and we don't hear about them being reinfected. Besides, we typically develop immunity to any virus we get, the common cold, flu etc. The real question is whether the immunity will be relatively permanent such as with polio, measles etc. or will it only work with this seasonal iteration of the virus (as with the common cold and flu)

(Yes, I know there were reports of people testing positive after testing negative, but until proven otherwise that was due to faulty tests.)


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

It seems really bizarre that a bunch of people not directly involved in the science are arguing over things the scientists haven't resolved yet.

I think we really are going to have to start opening up things soon. I just don't think economies can weather this too much longer. Government spending relies on revenue coming in to fund things. I'm worried that if we wait too long, we'll be in a downward spiral we can't recover from and the economic collapse will go on for years and impact far more lives than this virus does.


----------



## Guest

"No evidence" presumably does _not_ mean "no immunity".


----------



## Sad Al

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> It seems really bizarre that a bunch of people not directly involved in the science are arguing over things the scientists haven't resolved yet.
> 
> I think we really are going to have to start opening up things soon. I just don't think economies can weather this too much longer. Government spending relies on revenue coming in to fund things. I'm worried that if we wait too long, we'll be in a downward spiral we can't recover from and the economic collapse will go on for years and impact far more lives than this virus does.


We consist of fossil fuels. If the oil industry collapses, the economic collapse will go on for years and impact far more lives than this virus does. We MUST pump more and more CO2 into the atmosphere!!!

We are not spiritual beings. We are robots that consist of atoms. We must buy ever more crap to support the economy!

We are not God. There is no God. There is only capitalism! Let's inject bleach!


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> It seems really bizarre that a bunch of people not directly involved in the science are arguing over things the scientists haven't resolved yet.


Who? Where? We should be told!


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> It seems really bizarre that a bunch of people not directly involved in the science are arguing over things the scientists haven't resolved yet.
> 
> I think we really are going to have to start opening up things soon. I just don't think economies can weather this too much longer. Government spending relies on revenue coming in to fund things. I'm worried that if we wait too long, we'll be in a downward spiral we can't recover from and the economic collapse will go on for years and impact far more lives than this virus does.


Absolutely. Slobs who think in simple terms would say, ugh, you're putting economy over peoples lives, _dude_, but of course, without an economy we have no health service, no infrastructure, increased homelessness, suicide rates through the roof, crime spikes, all sorts of mental health issues, and so on. It's a poison chalice and in some ways it exposes the weakness of leadership in the west, that our rulers don't like being unpopular, or making unpopular decisions. But now the big decisions are coming, whether we like it or not. People can't be locked up indefintely...


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> It seems really bizarre that a bunch of people not directly involved in the science are arguing over things the scientists haven't resolved yet.


I assume you are not actually surprised given that this is the internet. As a scientist, I've always been slightly surprised at those who are not scientists but who argue strongly about issues that require a high level of scientific expertise to really understand.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I think we really are going to have to start opening up things soon. I just don't think economies can weather this too much longer. Government spending relies on revenue coming in to fund things. I'm worried that if we wait too long, we'll be in a downward spiral we can't recover from and the economic collapse will go on for years and impact far more lives than this virus does.


This statement seems to assume knowledge of economic and viral issues that few, if any, of us have. When you say soon, do you mean a week, a month, two months, before fall, something else? A little while ago, I posted a simplistic analysis of sheltering in place versus doing nothing. The results indicated that the politicians were likely correct to shelter in place when they did (or perhaps earlier).

I think a similar, but hopefully vastly more detailed, analysis must be completed to make decisions about opening up. When, where, under what conditions, how open are all critical questions. I suspect that many politicians are not bothering to listen to those with the most knowledge of both macroeconomic and virus related issues in order to make their decisions. Trading off lives versus economic hardship is an extremely unpleasant and difficult task, not least because either path will lead to both large loss of lives and significant economic hardship.


----------



## mmsbls

Kieran said:


> Absolutely. Slobs who think in simple terms would say, ugh, you're putting economy over peoples lives, _dude_, but of course, without an economy we have no health service, no infrastructure, increased homelessness, suicide rates through the roof, crime spikes, all sorts of mental health issues, and so on. It's a poison chalice and in some ways it exposes the weakness of leadership in the west, that our rulers don't like being unpopular, or making unpopular decisions. But now the big decisions are coming, whether we like it or not. People can't be locked up indefintely...


Yes, this question requires much more than simplistic analysis. Have you thought in detail about the cost in lives and economic losses for a variety of scenarios including sheltering until several different conditions are met versus opening the economy under a wide variety of conditions? The uncertainty is enormous even for those with access to expert analysis of all scenarios. For those of us on TC, I would suggest that the uncertainly is so large we can only guess at a reasonable path forward.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> O
> 
> I'm surprised that the statement is so general. There is more reason to believe so far that there is a fair amount of immunity conferred. For one thing, by now, a number of previously infected health care workers have returned to work and we don't hear about them being reinfected. Besides, we typically develop immunity to any virus we get, the common cold, flu etc. The real question is whether the immunity will be relatively permanent such as with polio, measles etc. or will it only work with this seasonal iteration of the virus (as with the common cold and flu)
> 
> (Yes, I know there were reports of people testing positive after testing negative, but until proven otherwise that was due to faulty tests.)


I read within the last couple of days that a significant number of people in China who had been "cleared" of the coronavirus were again testing positive, weeks after their clearance. These cases do not appear to be simply catching it a second time. Most cases are symptomless, though I've seen nothing about whether they are contagious.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> I read within the last couple of days that a significant number of people in China who had been "cleared" of the coronavirus were again testing positive, weeks after their clearance. These cases do not appear to be simply catching it a second time. Most cases are symptomless, though I've seen nothing about whether they are contagious.


The reports I've read are that virtually all cases are symptomless, assuming that the patients had achieved a reasonable period of recovery in the first place since the disease can seem to be waning after a couple of weeks only to get worse.

I think this testing positive after being 'cleared' may be related to the specificity of the testing. A few weeks ago, Dr. Birx addressed this, raising the question whether the immune response that 'kills' the virus might result in remnants/strands of RNA that some tests are still detecting. Interesting, but all theoretical so far.


----------



## DaveM

Sad Al said:


> A theory. God exists. Covid-19 is nothing but a psychological test. A cosmic fistful of scare and pain. God wants to see how you react.


Did he/she lose the results of the tests after the Black Death, smallpox and Spanish Flu or is he/she just feeling the need for more testing?


----------



## Kieran

mmsbls said:


> Yes, this question requires much more than simplistic analysis. Have you thought in detail about the cost in lives and economic losses for a variety of scenarios including sheltering until several different conditions are met versus opening the economy under a wide variety of conditions? The uncertainty is enormous even for those with access to expert analysis of all scenarios. For those of us on TC, I would suggest that the uncertainly is so large we can only guess at a reasonable path forward.


Absolutely, and this is why I think of it as a poison chalice. If the hospitals are still overrun and the rate of infection isn't under certain levels, then obviously they have to wait, but with these conditions met, then we need to be released. Again, this is conditional on the governments and hospitals being ready for further breakouts, being prepared this time. I haven't been on here complaining about any governments because my view is that all of them (far as I know) have been trying to deal with this as best they can. I also don't advocate a rush to release, but at the same time, release is inevitable, and the longer we continue to have a healthy population locked up, the worse it is for the economy, leading to more loss of life.

At first, I'm sure it will be a staggered release, with the vulnerable having to remain in lockdown....


----------



## KenOC

Kieran said:


> ...At first, I'm sure it will be a staggered release, with the vulnerable having to remain in lockdown....


Several countries are considering "immunity passports," where those showing antibodies to the virus are released from lockdown. Chile has already announced such a program. But the WHO thinks this is a relatively horrible idea, for reasons discussed in this *BBC article*.


----------



## DaveM

TMZ is reporting that Kim Jung Un may be dying or dead from ‘botched heart surgery’. New York Post says ‘rumored to be dead”.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> I assume you are not actually surprised given that this is the internet. As a scientist, I've always been slightly surprised at those who are not scientists but who argue strongly about issues that require a high level of scientific expertise to really understand.
> 
> This statement seems to assume knowledge of economic and viral issues that few, if any, of us have. When you say soon, do you mean a week, a month, two months, before fall, something else? A little while ago, I posted a simplistic analysis of sheltering in place versus doing nothing. The results indicated that the politicians were likely correct to shelter in place when they did (or perhaps earlier).
> 
> I think a similar, but hopefully vastly more detailed, analysis must be completed to make decisions about opening up. When, where, under what conditions, how open are all critical questions. I suspect that many politicians are not bothering to listen to those with the most knowledge of both macroeconomic and virus related issues in order to make their decisions. Trading off lives versus economic hardship is an extremely unpleasant and difficult task, not least because either path will lead to both large loss of lives and significant economic hardship.


You're right, I'm not an expert in either area. I do know, though, that 26 million people in this country alone losing jobs in just 4 weeks, with even more likely to occur since most of the country is still shut down, is very bad. I know that plummeting oil prices is bad for a major chunk of our economy. I know that states can't print more money, and can only run so much of a deficit, and with so many businesses closed, that means a huge drop in state revenues, most of which had little or no surpluses going into this. I know that we are already at close to a $4 trillion deficit this year and it is still April. How many more trillions can we afford? The real unemployment rate is just over 20%, the highest since 1934. We lost a whole decade to the Great Depression, and didn't crawl out until World War II.

That's what I do know.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> TMZ is reporting that Kim Jung Un may be dying or dead from 'botched heart surgery'. New York Post says 'rumored to be dead".


That's an old story. Chinese and South Korean officials are saying it isn't likely. None of the activity you would expect should something like that happen is being seen.


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> You're right, I'm not an expert in either area. I do know, though, that 26 million people in this country alone losing jobs in just 4 weeks, with even more likely to occur since most of the country is still shut down, is very bad. I know that plummeting oil prices is bad for a major chunk of our economy. I know that states can't print more money, and can only run so much of a deficit, and with so many businesses closed, that means a huge drop in state revenues, most of which had little or no surpluses going into this. I know that we are already at close to a $4 trillion deficit this year and it is still April. How many more trillions can we afford? The real unemployment rate is just over 20%, the highest since 1934. We lost a whole decade to the Great Depression, and didn't crawl out until World War II.
> 
> That's what I do know.


That's fine, but your information completely ignores the consequences of opening up so the above taken by itself is pretty useless in deciding how to proceed. If we open up, what will happen, and how does that compare to staying closed for a period of time? Comparing different scenarios is the only way to make these type of decisions.

Knowing what you know now, would you have opted for sheltering in place back in March?


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> ...I know that we are already at close to a $4 trillion deficit this year and it is still April. How many more trillions can we afford?


Yes, our recent spending habits, essentially all borrowings, give me some pause. Any stamp collector will be familiar with the hyperinflations in Germany in the 1920s and in Hungary from 1945 to 1946, quite apparent from the costs of stamps as printed (sometimes overprinted) on their faces.

"The Reichsbank responded by the unlimited printing of notes, thereby accelerating the devaluation of the mark… Germany went through its worst inflation in 1923. In 1922, the highest denomination was 50,000 marks. By 1923, the highest denomination was 100,000,000,000,000 Marks. In December 1923 the exchange rate was 4,200,000,000,000 (4.2 × 1012) Marks to 1 US dollar. In 1923, the rate of inflation hit 3.25 × 106 percent per month (prices double every two days)." (Wiki)

My grandfather told me a story of a man who loaded his wheeled cart with cash and pulled it down to the store to buy some food. When he came out to fetch payment for his purchases, he found the cash had been dumped in the gutter and his cart stolen.

BTW things were even more absurd in Hungary, where the highest-denomination bank note was 100 quintillion Hungarian pengos.


----------



## Kieran

mmsbls said:


> That's fine, but your information completely ignores the consequences of opening up so the above taken by itself is pretty useless in deciding how to proceed. If we open up, what will happen, and how does that compare to staying closed for a period of time? Comparing different scenarios is the only way to make these type of decisions.
> 
> Knowing what you know now, would you have opted for sheltering in place back in March?


Is it possible to compare the two scenarios, when you know for sure the catastrophe economic ruin will bring - death, crime, mental health issues, hospitals crashing, infrastructure mayhem - but you don't know for sure what'll happen if you re-open, under the conditions that hospitals are able to function?

I think opening when the hospitals are still overrun would have to be an act of desperation, but I wouldn't rule out that we may all reach that stage, it's like a race to the edge now...


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> That's an old story. Chinese and South Korean officials are saying it isn't likely. None of the activity you would expect should something like that happen is being seen.


The story, right or wrong, is very much alive as of the last 1-5 hours.


----------



## bz3

mmsbls said:


> Knowing what you know now, would you have opted for sheltering in place back in March?


Knowing what I know now I'd say Sweden's path was the best. Cratering the global economy and ushering in a police state seems to be a high price for what appears to be an illness that affects primarily the old and infirm. The only upside I see in this is that perhaps our criminal elite class overplayed their hand and will lose their grip eventually.

I'm an optimist by nature but I think the most likely scenario is the recession (that never truly ended in 2008) is finally here but it will be blamed on pestilence which, conveniently, absolves the responsible parties and allows extreme measures to be taken with less public resistance than if they just tried a redux of Bush/Obama bailouts and hyperinflation.* I take comfort in the fact that I live in very interesting, if horrifying, times.

*If the reader thinks this characterization of the Fed note exchange for bad debt that is referred to as 'quantitative easing' is inaccurate then by all means call whatever that was by whatever name you please.


----------



## mmsbls

Kieran said:


> Is it possible to compare the two scenarios, when you know for sure the catastrophe economic ruin will bring - death, crime, mental health issues, hospitals crashing, infrastructure mayhem - but you don't know for sure what'll happen if you re-open, under the conditions that hospitals are able to function?
> 
> I think opening when the hospitals are still overrun would have to be an act of desperation, but I wouldn't rule out that we may all reach that stage, it's like a race to the edge now...


I would say we don't know for sure what will happen in either scenario. In fact there's considerable uncertainty on the death, crime, mental health, and other outcomes in both scenarios. Still, without trying to estimate the effects of each possible pathway, it's impossible to make any kind of informed decision.


----------



## mmsbls

bz3 said:


> Knowing what I know now I'd say Sweden's path was the best. Cratering the global economy and ushering in a police state seems to be a high price for what appears to be an illness that affects primarily the old and infirm. ...


Others might characterize the situation mildly differently. Creating a short term recession and issuing reasonable guidelines for containing a deadly menace seem like a low price to pay for a pandemic that would have killed millions of people just in the US.

My characterization is based on all models for the virus that I have seen without any type of social distancing and on the US Chamber of Commerce's estimates for the US economy assuming we open up sometime early in the third quarter.

Personally, I think we will be somewhere between those two characterizations.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> The story, right or wrong, is very much alive as of the last 1-5 hours.


A Kim _must _lead North Korea, as directed by Kim Il-sung. So if Kim Jong-un dies, his sister Kim Yo-jong is likely to take over. That would be interesting.

She is an alternate member of the Politburo and vice director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department of the Workers' Party of Korea. She has been given increasing visibility lately and is easier on the eyes than her brother (no disrespect intended!).


----------



## DaveM

bz3 said:


> I'm an optimist by nature but I think the most likely scenario is the recession (that never truly ended in 2008) is finally here but it will be blamed on pestilence which, conveniently, absolves the responsible parties and allows extreme measures to be taken with less public resistance than if they just tried a redux of Bush/Obama bailouts and hyperinflation.* I take comfort in the fact that I live in very interesting, if horrifying, times.
> 
> *If the reader thinks this characterization of the Fed note exchange for bad debt that is referred to as 'quantitative easing' is inaccurate then by all means call whatever that was by whatever name you please.


By definition the 2008 recession did end. And for a number of reasons, hyperinflation secondary to the bailouts and quantitative easing never occurred. The U.S. has gotten away with printing more money than was thought possible which is why IMO I think they have done it again without much worry for consequences.


----------



## bz3

DaveM said:


> By definition the 2008 recession did end. And for a number of reasons, hyperinflation secondary to the bailouts and quantitative easing never occurred.


By whose definition? The Federal Reserve's? Business Insider and the Wall Street Journal? Obama's PR ministry?

I don't care to argue this particular point with you because it's entirely semantics. Purchasing power and wages continued to decrease and hyperinflation was staved off by the fact that the US dollar is the world reserve currency. Many other nations who don't control their monetary policy did experience hyperinflation and I would argue that our kick-the-can-down-the-road strategy created a series of global externalities that everyone but the plutocrat globalist class and the upper middle classes in the West (those invested in the stock market where the QE cash was infused) felt the downsides of.

I feel like this is 2016 election again only in reverse: whichever party held power argues things on the economic front have NEVER BEEN BETTER while the other screams about inequality, poverty, etc. I am not interested in political party bickering - I need only point to the single data point that something like 50% of US households did not have more than $500 in savings to show that the real economy was on the skids before this Covid crash.


----------



## KenOC

bz3 said:


> ...I need only point to the single data point that something like 50% of US households did not have more than $500 in savings to show that the real economy was on the skids before this Covid crash.


Or perhaps it shows something about the ability of many Americans to manage their money prudently. :tiphat:


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## Room2201974

KenOC said:


> Or perhaps it shows something about the ability of many Americans to manage their money prudently. :tiphat:


You have to have some first to manage it!


----------



## bz3

KenOC said:


> Or perhaps it shows something about the ability of many Americans to manage their money prudently. :tiphat:


An anticipated retort but I would say that if an economic system pauperizes half of the population then the problem should not be assumed in some moral failing with that half of the population, as palpable as that would be to our collective sense of morality. I am myself fortunate and I take a dim view of the large parasite class in this country but I am not willing to go so far as to say that virtually our entire working class is at fault for something that is a very recent phenomenon and coincides with predatory capitalism and the financialization of the global economy.


----------



## Bigbang

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> The rifle allows you to accurately take out the person at a larger range. Handguns are problematic beyond a certain range, unless you are really good.
> 
> I didn't say you can stop people from insulting. I'm just saying you aren't going to persuade anybody with really insulting, condescending language like that. Whatever else he is, Trump is popular with normal people because he doesn't condescend to them. He saves all his insults for those who think they are superior.


Did you read what you posted? Seriously? Popular with "normal" people. Insults for those who think they are superior??? I have has discussions with these normal people (that is, everyday folk) and I cannot detect any critical thinking going on. These are everyday people but others are supporters based on need and so forth. Let's put is another way: Unfortunately, we have some serious problems and now is not the time for why "normal" folk like Trump. Apparently it is based on upbringing and entitlement but underneath all that it is psychology or whatever term one might apply and the why someone supports Trump does not matter but that President Trump is not the ideal person to be the President.


----------



## KenOC

Room2201974 said:


> You have to have some first to manage it!


And all these households with so little savings... How old are the cars they drive? How much do they spend each month for family cell phone services and cable TV? How big are their homes?

We were a two-parent one-income family, typical in the '50s, and my father worked in a grubby upstairs shop engraving advertisements for the newspapers. Still, he managed to send his kids to college and travel to Europe in his later years. He never owned a new car (or even one that ran very well) and, with my mother, raised a family of five in a 1,000 SF house that he built with his own hands in 1942. It had one bathroom (no fun, that) but at least there was an outhouse for emergencies! I guess he was lucky that he had no cell phone or cable TV. We did own 5 or 6 LP records, as they were quite expensive in real terms and that's all we could afford. I remember all of them.

From what I see of people in a similar economic position today, their lifestyles seem far, far different.


----------



## DaveM

bz3 said:


> By whose definition? The Federal Reserve's? Business Insider and the Wall Street Journal? Obama's PR ministry?
> 
> I don't care to argue this particular point with you because it's entirely semantics. Purchasing power and wages continued to decrease and hyperinflation was staved off by the fact that the US dollar is the world reserve currency...


If you aren't prepared to discuss it, don't bring it up. The definition of a recession is based on the GDP and/or variations on negative economic growth. I am not aware of competing and conflicting definitions from the Fed, Business Insider and Obama's PR ministry. Overall purchasing power has not decreased -unless you are referring to those with lower incomes- and hyperinflation didn't occur because the cost of necessities and creature comforts stayed even or went down. The U.S. became an oil exporter. Electronics cost less -65 inch flat screens can be had for $300-400. Cost of food has stayed relatively stable. All sorts of goods from China have continued to be cheap.

The increase of the relative transfer of wealth to the upper classes and lack of increase of wages for the middle class while company executives get obscene bonuses has occurred and it just isn't right, but that is a subject that can't be easily or simplistically explained the way your are inferring.


----------



## Bigbang

Sad Al said:


> A theory. God exists. Covid-19 is nothing but a psychological test. A cosmic fistful of scare and pain. God wants to see how you react.


Good theory. No need to drag it out to cosmic scale though. You find a hundred dollar bill on the floor, look around, and wonder who lost it....God wants to see how you react. Then multiply that many fold in multi universes and God is doing it over and over. Maybe wants to see if it is time to put the universe into a black hole recycler or wait until we redeem ourselves.....

But, really suffering is always present, past- present- future- and each of us (and sentient life) is in our world. Why the need to point outward to an "out there" as if suffering is somewhere else? In other words, there really is no "cosmic" show going on. There was suffering going on many times before due to virus, and natural disasters in the past, what is new now?


----------



## bz3

DaveM said:


> If you aren't prepared to discuss it, don't bring it up. The definition of a recession is based on the GDP and/or variations on negative economic growth. I am not aware of competing and conflicting definitions from the Fed, Business Insider and Obama's PR ministry. Overall purchasing power has not decreased -unless you are referring to those with lower incomes- and hyperinflation didn't occur because the cost of necessities and creature comforts stayed even or went down. The U.S. became an oil exporter. Electronics cost less -65 inch flat screens can be had for $300-400. Cost of food has stayed relatively stable. All sorts of goods from China have continued to be cheap.
> 
> The increase of the relative transfer of wealth to the upper classes and lack of increase of wages for the middle class while company executives get obscene bonuses has occurred and it just isn't right, but that is a subject that can't be easily or simplistically explained the way your are inferring.


I said I'm not prepared to argue it because it's entirely semantics. For one thing I'd argue it's not even a recession but a depression that is now 12 years in the making. The so-called 'Great Depression' lasted 16 years with various dips throughout and I believe history will cast what we are currently in as one long financial crisis that was sparked by the housing crash (rather than bank runs) and was papered over with various tactics in the same way the FDR administration tried, and failed, to paper over the depression in the mid 30s.

This explains what I mean, and as I said you can call this situation whatever you want. This thread is not the place to argue the semantics over whether or not some cheap Chinese consumer products offsets the the hyperinflation of real products like perishables (for instance, the cost of eggs is up about 30% on average from before the financial crisis, with lows as low as only 25% and highs as high as 50%). The transfer of wealth out of the low and middle class is part of this entire scheme, and it certainly is not very complicated.


----------



## arpeggio

It is difficult to be polite when one has to deal with individuals that are proponents of a philosophy that could result in the deaths in over a million of my countrymen and destroy our economy.


----------



## Open Book

If your national or local government opens things up in two weeks, how many of you are going to rush right out and go back to living the way you did before? Are you going to attend live concerts, sports events, sit in restaurants, attend school in classrooms, shop in brick and mortar stores, take public transportation?

And if you're not, you're probably not alone. So the economy will suffer anyway.


----------



## KenOC

Bigbang said:


> Good theory. No need to drag it out to cosmic scale though. You find a hundred dollar bill on the floor, look around, and wonder who lost it....God wants to see how you react. The multiply that many fold in multi universes and God is doing it over and over. Maybe wants to see if it is time to put the universe into a black hole recycler or wait until we redeem ourselves.....
> 
> But, really suffering is always present, past- present- future- and each of us (and sentient life) is in our world. Why the need to point outward to an "out there" as if suffering is somewhere else? In other words, there really is no "cosmic" show going on. There was suffering going on many times before due to virus, and natural disasters in the past, what is new now?


I was amused by Sad Al's post as well. It should be apparent that humans, as living organisms, are prey to the same sorts of viral, bacterial, and fungal epidemics that continually afflict all forms of life, both animal and plant. I doubt that God sends only the plagues that infect man, while blind nature attacks other forms of life. Or perhaps God sends them all, which means he's quite a busy deity! :lol:


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> If you aren't prepared to discuss it, don't bring it up. The definition of a recession is based on the GDP and/or variations on negative economic growth. I am not aware of competing and conflicting definitions from the Fed, Business Insider and Obama's PR ministry. Overall purchasing power has not decreased -unless you are referring to those with lower incomes- and hyperinflation didn't occur because the cost of necessities and creature comforts stayed even or went down. The U.S. became an oil exporter. Electronics cost less -65 inch flat screens can be had for $300-400. Cost of food has stayed relatively stable. All sorts of goods from China have continued to be cheap.


What DaveM said. I am, though, increasingly worried about the economic future.

BTW the definition of a recession is, in most places, two or more consecutive quarters of economic contraction. The US uses that measure also, but often defers to the more nuanced decisions of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Either way, to claim that the definition is merely semantic is like arguing that a pound equals a weight of 16 ounces is mere semantics. :lol:


----------



## Guest

bz3 said:


> Knowing what I know now I'd say Sweden's path was the best. Cratering the global economy and ushering in a police state seems to be a high price for what appears to be an illness that affects primarily the old and infirm.


I'm concerned by what appears to be a dismissal of "the old and the infirm". It seems to suggest that we could bear a high price for "cratering the economy" and "ushering in a police state" if the illness affected all ages, or why not the working man, or, perhaps, all our young?

Since when was life of variable value, depending on your age bracket and economic productivity?

If you want to be calculating about it, the whole point about not letting health services be overwhelmed is so that only the most vulnerable die and the general population is safe. It's obvious that a proportion of those surviving are doing so because of a quality of care they are getting which would be much less likely in an overrun system.

And no, I have no underlying health conditions nor over 70. I am 61, early retired but still pay taxes, so I'm as personally invested in the economy as anyone else. Furthermore, I have two sons whose future - domestic and economic - I am also invested in. One still at work on a major UK infrastructure project, the other furloughed in the hospitality industry.

No-one is disputing that the toll on our economies is signficant and brings with it its own health challenges. But I have no time for anyone who wants to open up 'early' and gamble on being able to manage the deaths yet to come, just because they think its only the old folks who are going to croak.


----------



## erki

KenOC said:


> And all these households with so little savings... How old are the cars they drive? How much do they spend each month for family cell phone services and cable TV? How big are their homes?
> 
> We were a two-parent one-income family, typical in the '50s, and my father worked in a grubby upstairs shop engraving advertisements for the newspapers. Still, he managed to send his kids to college and travel to Europe in his later years. He never owned a new car (or even one that ran very well) and, with my mother, raised a family of five in a 1,000 SF house that he built with his own hands in 1942. It had one bathroom (no fun, that) but at least there was an outhouse for emergencies! I guess he was lucky that he had no cell phone or cable TV. We did own 5 or 6 LP records, as they were quite expensive in real terms and that's all we could afford. I remember all of them.
> 
> From what I see of people in a similar economic position today, their lifestyles seem far, far different.


It is awful life when you income covers your very basic needs *only* and just one unexpected expense will throw you into "recession" spiral. TV is your only entertainment that bombards you with ads of desirable things. But that what capitalism is all about.


----------



## KenOC

erki said:


> It is awful life when you income covers your very basic needs *only* and just one unexpected expense will throw you into "recession" spiral. TV is your only entertainment that bombards you with ads of desirable things. But that what capitalism is all about.


Awful indeed. I would suggest that if your income is so inadequate that only your basic needs are covered, and that isn't good enough for you, then you should do something about it.

One thing I cannot remember from when I was growing up is any sense that others should be responsible for my economic condition. A few years back I read of a survey of high school students, 80% of whom agreed that "the government is responsible for giving me a good job when I graduate." Reading that, I despaired of my country, and that despair has not gone away.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Awful indeed. I would suggest that if your income is so inadequate that only your basic needs are covered, and that isn't good enough for you, then you should do something about it.
> 
> One thing I cannot remember from when I was growing up is any sense that others should be responsible for my economic condition. A few years back I read of a survey of high school students, 80% of whom agreed that "the government is responsible for giving me a good job when I graduate." Reading that, I despaired of my country, and that despair has not gone away.


that might have been before the Republicans strangled the American dream
https://www.epi.org/publication/usa-lags-peer-countries-mobility/
US has a very bad upward mobility now, which means it very much depends into what family you were born. For example, if you were born a Trump child, you can be as dumb as a door knob, and yet earn a lot of money through nepotism.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Awful indeed. I would suggest that if your income is so inadequate that only your basic needs are covered, and that isn't good enough for you, then you should do something about it.
> 
> One thing I cannot remember from when I was growing up is any sense that others should be responsible for my economic condition. A few years back I read of a survey of high school students, 80% of whom agreed that "the government is responsible for giving me a good job when I graduate." Reading that, I despaired of my country, and that despair has not gone away.


A fundamental issue here. What percentage of responsibility do I carry, and what does society carry for my well-being? I guess the answers would range from, "I'm totally responsible and woe betide if anyone (neighbour, town, government) gets in my way" to "I need do nothing. I can just sit here and be taken care of (by family, town, government)."

When I was growing up, I was already born into a 'society' that took care of me - provided the school I could attend, the GP to stitch me up when I fell off a slide, the dentist to take out my bad teeth, the local authority to coordinate which high school I would go to, and provide a grant for uniform as we were not well off.

How can you _not _develop a sense, therefore, that we live in an interdependence of communities, and assume that this is all a good idea, because it's based on the notion that if we take care of each other - and pay for the means by which this care is made available - we all benefit. And that this sense develops long before we have the vote or something approaching an informed political opinion.

We can argue about what the state should and shouldn't pay for, and at what point the state should intervene. But what I've been hearing increasingly in some of the debates about this extraordinary situation is that we should take full responsibility for ourselves and 'devil take the hindmost'. (For example...https://www.theguardian.com/comment...an-empathy-bypass-no-thanks-catherine-bennett)

Or, rather, we must be allowed back to work to make the economy work, whatever the cost to others in terms of their health, because personal responsibility must come first.

I can't subscribe to that view.

[add] Perhaps the worst manifestation of this view was clearly evident even before the onset of this plague: our treatment of our ageing, increasingly dementia-ridden elderly. The UK won't even add the numbers dying in care homes to our daily official figures. ("Well, they were on the road to oblivion anyway - what does it matter how they went?")

It's the "problem" (an increasingly elderly population) that won't go away and yet won;t be dealt with properly by any of our politicians - and, perhaps, by us either.


----------



## Sad Al

The world economy is in free fall and undergoing intensive care, unfortunately by not by scientists but politicians and economist quacks. Money printing machines are our ventilators. No quick-and-dirty-solutions ever work in the long run. After two World Wars the killer ape was twice able to kick start global shopping. It won't happen this time. Why? Because we have no more cheap oil left.* GDP is oil.* The second half of the extraction of fossil resources, once its world zenith has passed (that happened well before 2020), will be a dramatic global energy downhill, accelerated because the remaining reserves are of the worst quality, expensive to extract and refine and with low energy return rate. In other words, more energy will have to be consumed to extract the same amount of energy, and that necessarily decreases the energy available for really necessary uses for our society. That downhill will imply the economic downhill, because economic activity is very closely linked to the energy available to carry it out.

I hear that my aunt tries to walk after her COVID-19 infection but she feels that she has no energy. Isn't that exactly what's happening globally. We just don't have the energy to _shop_. Advertisement industry isn't doing its_ job_. We're ready to _drop_. *Homo Sapiens is tired.* To be or not to be? No more that be-_bop_. No more rock around the_ clock._


----------



## erki

KenOC said:


> Awful indeed. I would suggest that if your income is so inadequate that only your basic needs are covered, and that isn't good enough for you, then you should do something about it.


I have a feeling that people who state this never have been working poor themselves. As far I am concerned the myth "from paperboy to millionaire" is just the myth and nothing more. Much better and realistic is this dialog: How do you made your first milloin? ... Well, I took a million and then.....
So with this virus(or governments) caused global economic crisis will trip much more people over the edge to poverty and they can not do much about it. The revision of capitalism postulates are in order.


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> TMZ is reporting that Kim Jung Un may be dying or dead from 'botched heart surgery'. New York Post says 'rumored to be dead".


a tear just rolled down my cheek


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> a tear just rolled down my cheek


My tears rolled backwards, returned to the ducts...


----------



## Bigbang

mmsbls said:


> Yes, this question requires much more than simplistic analysis. Have you thought in detail about the cost in lives and economic losses for a variety of scenarios including sheltering until several different conditions are met versus opening the economy under a wide variety of conditions? The uncertainty is enormous even for those with access to expert analysis of all scenarios. For those of us on TC, I would suggest that the uncertainly is so large we can only guess at a reasonable path forward.


However, this type of thinking usually is fraught with issues at the outset as the stock market is one indicator. Here you have these movers trying to predict what is going to happen, and the markets respond in a forward looking way but Warren Buffett sits in his office (eating Mcdonalds/drinking coke) and states he does not know what the markets will do in the future. He merely looks at the fundamentals of companies he understands (though now he knows he has to change that) and buys when the time is right (of course he has clout with options that the average investor does not have). And then sit back and wait for the time when his insight pays off, but he did not know in this case coronavirus would come but he knows a market already run up for years is waiting for problems.

Ok, it does not take much education to know we are now going to pay in ways not imaginable because the deficit is going to be an ever increasing problem.

So, yes, I do not try to delve into all these stats as it will be difficult enough for the smartest and brightest minds we have, and I will certainly not be taking anything I read here as gospel but it does give an opportunity to hear suggestions and maybe save a life unawares.

Almost forgot...Warren Buffett has to be too smart at his age that this is not healthy but (surprise) he owns shares in both Coke and Mcdonalds. So he is trying to influence us on so many levels. But, this is why it is so critical to "liberate" our minds from the influence of our upbringing on so many levels. Will not be easy as what you gain you lose also....


----------



## Bigbang

Sad Al said:


> The world economy is in free fall and undergoing intensive care, unfortunately by not by scientists but politicians and economist quacks. Money printing machines are our ventilators. No quick-and-dirty-solutions ever work in the long run. After two World Wars the killer ape was twice able to kick start global shopping. It won't happen this time. Why? Because we have no more cheap oil left.* GDP is oil.* The second half of the extraction of fossil resources, once its world zenith has passed (that happened well before 2020), will be a dramatic global energy downhill, accelerated because the remaining reserves are of the worst quality, expensive to extract and refine and with low energy return rate. In other words, more energy will have to be consumed to extract the same amount of energy, and that necessarily decreases the energy available for really necessary uses for our society. That downhill will imply the economic downhill, because economic activity is very closely linked to the energy available to carry it out.
> 
> I hear that my aunt tries to walk after her COVID-19 infection but she feels that she has no energy. Isn't that exactly what's happening globally. We just don't have the energy to _shop_. Advertisement industry isn't doing its_ job_. We're ready to _drop_. *Homo Sapiens is tired.* To be or not to be? No more that be-_bop_. No more rock around the_ clock._


You did not read my previous post: Corona boomers are coming...they will not be like us and know they have to fix these issues on our planet as these trips to the moon and space station are not going to cut it. No place to go....to hide...as our present technology is not there yet. (we cannot imagine our science of the future). But, yes if one person is allowed to suffer and die in all these tragic ways, why not the whole planet. Let's try to be optimistic though and hear more Mozart.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> And all these households with so little savings... How old are the cars they drive? How much do they spend each month for family cell phone services and cable TV? How big are their homes?
> 
> We were a two-parent one-income family, typical in the '50s, and my father worked in a grubby upstairs shop engraving advertisements for the newspapers. Still, he managed to send his kids to college and travel to Europe in his later years. He never owned a new car (or even one that ran very well) and, with my mother, raised a family of five in a 1,000 SF house that he built with his own hands in 1942. It had one bathroom (no fun, that) but at least there was an outhouse for emergencies! I guess he was lucky that he had no cell phone or cable TV. We did own 5 or 6 LP records, as they were quite expensive in real terms and that's all we could afford. I remember all of them.
> 
> From what I see of people in a similar economic position today, their lifestyles seem far, far different.


----------



## starthrower

Why can't the oil and airlines industries pull themselves up by their boot straps like these poor folks? They've been pissing away all that money on executive bonuses and lobbyists. If they can't make ends meet they should do something about it.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

erki said:


> I have a feeling that people who state this never have been working poor themselves. As far I am concerned the myth "from paperboy to millionaire" is just the myth and nothing more. Much better and realistic is this dialog: How do you made your first milloin? ... Well, I took a million and then.....
> So with this virus(or governments) caused global economic crisis will trip much more people over the edge to poverty and they can not do much about it. The revision of capitalism postulates are in order.


Why does it have to be that simplistic dichotomy? You can live quite well and happy without being a millionaire. I make nowhere near that and live very comfortable with my wife and 3 kids, own my home, 2 cars.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Why can't the oil and airlines industries pull themselves up by their boot straps like these poor folks? They've been pissing away all that money on executive bonuses and lobbyists. If they can't make ends meet they should do something about it.


Do you actually know profit margins for oil companies? Every company larger than a mom and pop gives bonuses. I always hate that argument. And lobbyists? It's because politicians make that absolutely necessary. You think politicians actually do their homework and go find out who needs help?


----------



## Bigbang

starthrower said:


> Why can't the oil and airlines industries pull themselves up by their boot straps like these poor folks? They've been pissing away all that money on executive bonuses and lobbyists. If they can't make ends meet they should do something about it.


What about USPS? Here we have an agency of the Federal Government that is vital to the recovery. But, Trump has a personal vendetta against Jeff Bezos and anything that is associated with him. So, if the deck is already stacked against USPS (losing money) and no real plans for the future, how easy would it be to let the USPS just implode and let vultures (future capitalists) take over? Just kidding about the capitalists remark. I think.


----------



## starthrower

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Do you actually know profit margins for oil companies? Every company larger than a mom and pop gives bonuses. I always hate that argument. And lobbyists? It's because politicians make that absolutely necessary. You think politicians actually do their homework and go find out who needs help?


Well, you missed the point didn't you? We live in a society where billions of people walk around with a world catalog in their hands and are targeted and bombarded by ads from the corporate world. And when they lose their income, smug individuals are going to blame them for getting behind on their bills? Comparing this reality to the world of the 1950s is ridiculous.


----------



## Guest

mmsbls said:


> I assume you are not actually surprised given that this is the internet. As a scientist, I've always been slightly surprised at those who are not scientists but who argue strongly about issues that require a high level of scientific expertise to really understand.
> 
> This statement seems to assume knowledge of economic and viral issues that few, if any, of us have. When you say soon, do you mean a week, a month, two months, before fall, something else? A little while ago, I posted a simplistic analysis of sheltering in place versus doing nothing. The results indicated that the politicians were likely correct to shelter in place when they did (or perhaps earlier).


It must be an occupational hazard as a scientist to ask a person making a common-sense statement where his or her testing, research and results come from. There are millions of small businesses (actually these are the engine room of the Australian economy) who don't need test results to know they need to get business going again ASAP. Right now business is not in hibernation in Australia it is in a coma and many will not survive that state. We have 10% unemployment here at the moment and I've read that more than 20 million Americans have registered as unemployed. An appalling situation, along with the deaths.

The economies should not have been shut down in either of our countries; Trump was right about that. His silly comments about disinfectant and purple lights have probably come from the family but, whatever is the case, they were right out of Comedy Central. But do not be fooled; I do not need to do a research paper or a PhD to assure you that with a bankrupt nation and business in a coma nobody is going to be able to afford anything - hospitals, universities, schools, infrastructure.

The cure is much much worse than the disease.


----------



## starthrower

Bigbang said:


> What about USPS? Here we have an agency of the Federal Government that is vital to the recovery. But, Trump has a personal vendetta against Jeff Bezos and anything that is associated with him. So, if the deck is already stacked against USPS (losing money) and no real plans for the future, how easy would it be to let the USPS just implode and let vultures (future capitalists) take over? Just kidding about the capitalists remark. I think.


The USPS is a 245 year old vital government institution that provides services to hundreds of millions of citizens at an affordable cost and it should be preserved. The president's flippancy concerning its survival is just another example of his gross ignorance.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bigbang said:


> What about USPS? Here we have an agency of the Federal Government that is vital to the recovery. But, Trump has a personal vendetta against Jeff Bezos and anything that is associated with him. So, if the deck is already stacked against USPS (losing money) and no real plans for the future, how easy would it be to let the USPS just implode and let vultures (future capitalists) take over? Just kidding about the capitalists remark. I think.


Except the postal service is established in the Constitution. Nobody is going to take it over.


----------



## starthrower

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Except the postal service is established in the Constitution. Nobody is going to take it over.


Who could possibly step in overnight and handle 150 billion pieces of mail in the coming year delivered to your door? It's a pretty crazy consideration. My feeling is that congress will not let the postal service fold no matter what a certain loony individual thinks about it.


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## Flamme

Did it REAP the (late) Kim Jong Un???


----------



## erki

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Why does it have to be that simplistic dichotomy? You can live quite well and happy without being a millionaire. I make nowhere near that and live very comfortable with my wife and 3 kids, own my home, 2 cars.


Live as you like.
But the reality is that poor cannot do something about *it* much at all. So the mantra that "do something" or "pull yourself up by boot straps" is not for us to say - since we do rather well and may never been even close to poor.
Most likely the next argument will be "give them a fishing rod instead of fish" witch is another stupid one since this applies that we are not going to change anything just let them to adopt to our ways. 
And if this does not make us feel satisfied that we solved the problem we start talking about ills of "welfare state".


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

starthrower said:


> The USPS is a 245 year old vital government institution that provides services to hundreds of millions of citizens at an affordable cost and it should be preserved. The president's flippancy concerning its survival is just another example of his gross ignorance.


If it it losing money for items sent by big companies like amazon does that need to end?


----------



## Art Rock

Flamme said:


> Did it REAP the (late) Kim Jong Un???


Officially not dead (yet). All information points to a botched heart operation.


----------



## starthrower

starthrower said:


> Who could possibly step in overnight and handle 150 billion pieces of mail in the coming year delivered to your door? It's a pretty crazy consideration. My feeling is that congress will not let the postal service fold no matter what a certain loony individual thinks about it.





Johnnie Burgess said:


> If it it losing money for items sent by big companies like amazon does that need to end?


This is a topic for another thread.


----------



## Flamme

I think North Koreao, Vietnam and Vanuatu are the only countries with 0 death cases...I think Vanuatu doesnt even have infected ppl until now...


----------



## Art Rock

There are dozens of countries without official deaths (link).


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Who could possibly step in overnight and handle 150 billion pieces of mail in the coming year delivered to your door? It's a pretty crazy consideration. My feeling is that congress will not let the postal service fold no matter what a certain loony individual thinks about it.


Overnight? Nobody. Because the Constitution forbids anybody from doing those, nobody had the infrastructure to do it. Were it possible, though, I think any number of companies could very quickly. UPS, Fedex, hell, even Amazon. The problem is more that the USPS probably wouldn't exist without being propped up. It is such an antiquated thing. In the digital age, it is almost absurd that we still cram pieces of paper into envelopes and are cool with it taking multiple days to arrive anywhere when you could otherwise send it instantaneously. Sure, there is still a need to send documents. And when that is needed, I frequently use UPS or Fedex. But someone can easily send me a PDF, I sign it, scan it, and send it back. Rather than that all taking a week, at best, by mail, I can do that in half an hour.


----------



## Bigbang

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Except the postal service is established in the Constitution. Nobody is going to take it over.


Of course, no outside entity will but that is what all the talk is about in privitasing USPS. The issue is about short term solution and then long term solution. You have postal workers covered by unions and all the benefits. Now that is fine but it cost money to support USPS by revenue alone given all that has happened. So if USPS has such expenses (payroll,retirement,health etc) and cannot compete with other companies, how can it survive? Hence the push to remove it from the restraints (Constitution) of current laws.


----------



## starthrower

There are plenty of long term considerations to be addressed. But in the short term congress will have to act to keep the postal service afloat for now. As I previously stated, this is a topic for another thread. Back to Coronavirus...


----------



## Bigbang

starthrower said:


> The USPS is a 245 year old vital government institution that provides services to hundreds of millions of citizens at an affordable cost and it should be preserved. The president's flippancy concerning its survival is just another example of his gross ignorance.


As you stated elsewhere this is another thread. But, if he thinks he can mess with the USPS and remained unscathed (same guy who can tell scientists where to look for cure is now wanting to get his hands on USPS) he is heading for trouble-again.


----------



## starthrower

The last thing I will add is that the USPS is vital when it serves Trump's purposes. He used it to waste tax dollars sending out that campaign letter reminding everyone about the stimulus checks they received and how much he cares, blah, blah, blah...


----------



## pianozach

Sad Al said:


> A theory. God exists. Covid-19 is nothing but a psychological test. A cosmic fistful of scare and pain. God wants to see how you react.


Theories about God 'testing' his creations seems futile for several reasons.

Going by the commonly used descriptions of *God* though, he is thought to be *omniscient, omnipotent*, and *all-loving*, right? He's also *vengeful, infinite, eternal, self-sufficient*. Further, many use other adjectives as descriptors for "Him": *sovereign, holy, righteous, just, merciful, faithful*. And of course, *God is Love*.

Subjecting us inferior and flawed creations to COVID-19 just "to see how we react" instantly negates his attributes of His being "All-Knowing" (Omniscience)

If He is omniscient and eternal, the beginning and the end, then he doesn't NEED to "test" us. He ALREADY KNOWS how we'll react, so the exercise is pointless.

If He's all-loving and merciful, inflicting pain and terror on us would be contrary to that as well. And it's certainly not "just" either. It's juvenile, mean, sadistic, and deplorable.

Yet, according to the Bible it *IS* God that takes credit for plagues in *Exodus*. In the Jewish faith, in the Passover story, after Pharaoh refuses Moses' entreaties to let the enslaved Israelites go free, God sends a series of ten plagues to pressure the Egyptian ruler. Each time, Pharaoh promises to free the Israelites, but reverses his decision when the plague is lifted - until the last one.

In the Christian Bible (both OT and NT), there's plenty of evidence for this as well: *Revelation 15* - "Then I saw another sign in heaven, great and amazing, seven angels with seven plagues, which are the last, for with them the wrath of God is finished."

Then there's *Leviticus 26:25*: "And I will bring a sword upon you, that shall execute vengeance for the covenant. And if you gather within your cities, I will send pestilence among you, and you shall be delivered into the hand of the enemy."

Or in *Exodus 11* - God tells Moses "Yet one plague more I will bring upon Pharaoh and upon Egypt." Yes, the plagues to make pharoah free the slaves is both Jewish and Christian . . . and it begs the question, of course, that if God is powerful enough to send plagues, why couldn't he he just off Pharoah, or pop the shackles, or send an airplane?

The most unequivocal example might be in *Samuel 24:10* where God sent a three-day plague to wipe out 70,000 men after King David sinned by numbering the people of Israel, and in *Jeremiah*, where God sent several judgments against the nation of Judah, including a plague, when he sent King Nebuchadnezzar to sack Jerusalem

Is the Bible itself proof that God cannot not exist as described in the Bible?


----------



## Flamme

Our main state chief of the medical team told on a presser that it is possible that another great impact of coronavirus happen in late autumn...I saw on BBC that scientists predict 3, 4 or even 5 comebakcs in months, 2 come, no1 even dares 2 predict 4 years...


----------



## Bigbang

starthrower said:


> Who could possibly step in overnight and handle 150 billion pieces of mail in the coming year delivered to your door? It's a pretty crazy consideration. My feeling is that congress will not let the postal service fold no matter what a certain loony individual thinks about it.


No one can step in overnight. So a shutdown would be temporary until another short term idea is used to keep the mail running and no ones knows what might come from this that will help the USPS but not likely as parcels are now a major part of USPS business. So Congress will have to help USPS decide on how they want to use the USPS for? 5 day delivery? Modernize, and hope it pays off? Keep paying all new employees a salary and a future as federal employee with all the benefits that entitles. We know Trump is a bluffer but the problem is he can inflict more damage by playing games because he cannot get Jeff Bezos out of his mind (of course, there are others....)


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> Theories about God 'testing' his creations seems futile for several reasons.
> 
> Going by the commonly descriptions of *God* though, he is thought to be *omniscient, omnipotent*, and *all-loving*, right? He's also *vengeful, infinite, eternal, self-sufficient*. Further, many use other adjectives as descriptors for "Him": *sovereign, holy, righteous, just, merciful, faithful*. And of course, *God is Love*.
> 
> Subjecting us inferior and flawed just "to see how we react" instantly negates his attributes of His being "All-Knowing" (Omniscience)
> 
> If He is omniscient and eternal, the beginning and the end, then he doesn't NEED to "test" us. He ALREADY KNOWS how we'll react, so the exercise is pointless.
> 
> If He's all-loving and merciful, inflicting pain and terror on us would be contrary to that as well. And it's certainly not "just" either. It's juvenile, mean, sadistic, and deplorable.
> 
> Yet, according to the Bible it *IS* God that takes credit for plagues in *Exodus*. In the Jewish faith, in the Passover story, after Pharaoh refuses Moses' entreaties to let the enslaved Israelites go free, God sends a series of ten plagues to pressure the Egyptian ruler. Each time, Pharaoh promises to free the Israelites, but reverses his decision when the plague is lifted - until the last one.
> 
> In the Christian Bible (both OT and NT), there's plenty of evidence for this as well: *Revelation 15* - "Then I saw another sign in heaven, great and amazing, seven angels with seven plagues, which are the last, for with them the wrath of God is finished."
> 
> Then there's *Leviticus 26:25*: "And I will bring a sword upon you, that shall execute vengeance for the covenant. And if you gather within your cities, I will send pestilence among you, and you shall be delivered into the hand of the enemy."
> 
> Or in *Exodus 11* - God tells Moses "Yet one plague more I will bring upon Pharaoh and upon Egypt." Yes, the plagues to make pharoah free the slaves is both Jewish and Christian . . . and it begs the question, of course, that if God is powerful enough to send plagues, why couldn't he he just off Pharoah, or pop the shackles, or send an airplane?
> 
> The most unequivocal example might be in *Samuel 24:10* where God sent a three-day plague to wipe out 70,000 men after King David sinned by numbering the people of Israel, and in *Jeremiah*, where God sent several judgments against the nation of Judah, including a plague, when he sent King Nebuchadnezzar to sack Jerusalem
> 
> Is the Bible itself proof that God cannot not exist as described in the Bible?


I read the whole Bible a couple of years ago and I was horrified by the brutality of the God of the Old Testament. My impression was, that the Middle Eastern civilization was pretty barbaric at those times. There are descriptions of various other Gods such as Moloch and Baal, which required child sacrifices etc. But the Jehovah was not much better, taking revenge on whole cities, tribes and societies, testing his faithful by requiring child sacrifices, requiring blind obedience and faith etc. Pretty petty and vengeful God. Most of the Books of the old testament were written a couple of centures BC and describe events from 1500-1000BC, which were part of the oral mythology of the Jews. So my impression is, that the Old Testament is a mythologized history of the Jewish shepards, that also adopted myths of other cultures from Mesopotamia and Egypt.


----------



## Bigbang

pianozach said:


> Theories about God 'testing' his creations seems futile for several reasons.
> 
> Going by the commonly descriptions of *God* though, he is thought to be *omniscient, omnipotent*, and *all-loving*, right? He's also *vengeful, infinite, eternal, self-sufficient*. Further, many use other adjectives as descriptors for "Him": *sovereign, holy, righteous, just, merciful, faithful*. And of course, *God is Love*.
> 
> Subjecting us inferior and flawed just "to see how we react" instantly negates his attributes of His being "All-Knowing" (Omniscience)
> 
> If He is omniscient and eternal, the beginning and the end, then he doesn't NEED to "test" us. He ALREADY KNOWS how we'll react, so the exercise is pointless.
> 
> If He's all-loving and merciful, inflicting pain and terror on us would be contrary to that as well. And it's certainly not "just" either. It's juvenile, mean, sadistic, and deplorable.
> 
> Yet, according to the Bible it *IS* God that takes credit for plagues in *Exodus*. In the Jewish faith, in the Passover story, after Pharaoh refuses Moses' entreaties to let the enslaved Israelites go free, God sends a series of ten plagues to pressure the Egyptian ruler. Each time, Pharaoh promises to free the Israelites, but reverses his decision when the plague is lifted - until the last one.
> 
> In the Christian Bible (both OT and NT), there's plenty of evidence for this as well: *Revelation 15* - "Then I saw another sign in heaven, great and amazing, seven angels with seven plagues, which are the last, for with them the wrath of God is finished."
> 
> Then there's *Leviticus 26:25*: "And I will bring a sword upon you, that shall execute vengeance for the covenant. And if you gather within your cities, I will send pestilence among you, and you shall be delivered into the hand of the enemy."
> 
> Or in *Exodus 11* - God tells Moses "Yet one plague more I will bring upon Pharaoh and upon Egypt." Yes, the plagues to make pharoah free the slaves is both Jewish and Christian . . . and it begs the question, of course, that if God is powerful enough to send plagues, why couldn't he he just off Pharoah, or pop the shackles, or send an airplane?
> 
> The most unequivocal example might be in *Samuel 24:10* where God sent a three-day plague to wipe out 70,000 men after King David sinned by numbering the people of Israel, and in *Jeremiah*, where God sent several judgments against the nation of Judah, including a plague, when he sent King Nebuchadnezzar to sack Jerusalem
> 
> Is the Bible itself proof that God cannot not exist as described in the Bible?


Of course Sad Al is not really meaning what he writes, but is bored and hates Mozart (has something to do with a past life thing where Mozart accidently farted in his face) but breaking the chains of past existence (well, time is elusive) and so we tend to fixate on what we hate. Anyway this Bible analysis is nothing new but nothing can convince those who remain determined to stay shackled to ideas they have created for themselves.


----------



## mmsbls

It's hard enough to keep politics out of this thread. Please stop religious posts as well.


----------



## mmsbls

Christabel said:


> It must be an occupational hazard as a scientist to ask a person making a common-sense statement where his or her testing, research and results come from.


I think the issue is that many people believe they are making common sense statements when actually they are discussing extremely complex issues that require detailed analysis.



Christabel said:


> There are millions of small businesses (actually these are the engine room of the Australian economy) who don't need test results to know they need to get business going again ASAP.


Yes, those business people understand their businesses and know to what extent their business can survive sheltering in place and how much they may be hurt economically by such policies. Most do not understand global macroeconomics and likely do not fully understand the effect of the pandemic given various strategies to gradually open the economy. Anyone arguing that the economy must be opened up because many small businesses will suffer greatly is essentially identical to someone arguing we must keep the economy closed because the virus will cause catastrophic harm.

It's simply not enough to argue "A closed economy will cause irrevocable harm" or "Opening the economy will cause irrevocable harm." Scenarios must be considered that cause the _least overall harm to both the economy and health_. That's a very complex, difficult decision.



Christabel said:


> The economies should not have been shut down in either of our countries; ...





Christabel said:


> The cure is much much worse than the disease.


Those may seem like common sense statements, but they are just as common sense as:

We must to shelter in place with strict government oversight of behavior to contain the virus.

or

The economic hardship palls in comparison to the potential catastrophic death toll.

I hope everyone who will make decisions about sheltering in place versus opening the economy will make extensive use of expertise in both macroeconomics and pandemic behavior. Without both, people are simply guessing or allowing their biases to dominate their thinking. The decision is much too important to leave it up guesses or strongly biased thinking.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bigbang said:


> Of course, no outside entity will but that is what all the talk is about in privitasing USPS. The issue is about short term solution and then long term solution. You have postal workers covered by unions and all the benefits. Now that is fine but it cost money to support USPS by revenue alone given all that has happened. So if USPS has such expenses (payroll,retirement,health etc) and cannot compete with other companies, how can it survive? Hence the push to remove it from the restraints (Constitution) of current laws.


There postal monopoly is established in the Constitution. You would have to amend the Constitution to change that. Neither the president nor Congress can do that alone.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Flamme said:


> I think North Koreao, Vietnam and Vanuatu are the only countries with 0 death cases...I think Vanuatu doesnt even have infected ppl until now...


I think North Korea is even less of a believable source than China.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Flamme said:


> Our main state chief of the medical team told on a presser that it is possible that another great impact of coronavirus happen in late autumn...I saw on BBC that scientists predict 3, 4 or even 5 comebakcs in months, 2 come, no1 even dares 2 predict 4 years...


Maybe. But then how many recurrences of SARS and MERS have we had? It seems just as likely that once this burns through the global population it disappears, at least for a while.


----------



## TxllxT

Now the Russians say the same as Czech Dr. S. Pekova https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249875/Wuhan-laboratory-scientists-did-absolutely-crazy-things-alter-coronavirus.html
"Wuhan laboratory scientists 'did absolutely crazy things' to alter coronavirus and enabled it to infect humans, Russian microbiologist claims"


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

TxllxT said:


> Now the Russians say the same as Czech Dr. S. Pekova https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249875/Wuhan-laboratory-scientists-did-absolutely-crazy-things-alter-coronavirus.html
> "Wuhan laboratory scientists 'did absolutely crazy things' to alter coronavirus and enabled it to infect humans, Russian microbiologist claims"


Well, if the Russians are saying it . . .


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Awful indeed. I would suggest that if your income is so inadequate that only your basic needs are covered, and that isn't good enough for you, then you should do something about it.
> 
> One thing I cannot remember from when I was growing up is any sense that others should be responsible for my economic condition. A few years back I read of a survey of high school students, 80% of whom agreed that "the government is responsible for giving me a good job when I graduate." Reading that, I despaired of my country, and that despair has not gone away.


There is a push in the U.S. to let 16-year-olds vote. Imagine the changes in government if that happens.

16-year-olds know _nothing_ of life.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> There is a push in the U.S. to let 16-year-olds vote. Imagine the changes in government if that happens.
> 
> 16-year-olds know _nothing_ of life.


In this country, where we have had to tell teenagers to not eat Tide Pods, it would be catastrophic if we let them anywhere near a voting booth.


----------



## Kieran

mmsbls said:


> I hope everyone who will make decisions about sheltering in place versus opening the economy will make extensive use of expertise in both macroeconomics and pandemic behavior. Without both, people are simply guessing or allowing their biases to dominate their thinking. The decision is much too important to leave it up guesses or strongly biased thinking.


In fairness, given the lack of uniformity among the scientists in how to deal with the pandemic, it often seems that they're also involved in guesswork. One thing that isn't really a guess is, that if whole economies collapse into a black hole of spiralling debt, zero growth, massive unemployment, increased numbers of homelessness, hopelessness, anger and fear, there'll be trouble. We have huge healthy populations locked up, and itching to move. Now, this doesn't mean I'm suggesting we open the gates and say, "have at it, chaps!"

But it isn't really guesswork to suggest what the effect of a huge economic depression will be. We've seen it before. It may even lead to wars. The balance must be found, so governments know when is the exact time to pounce. But I don't think many people are suggesting a reckless breakout, with so much still in the balance. In Ireland, our health system isn't fully under control, so we may have a further period of patience after May 5th...


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> There postal monopoly is established in the Constitution. You would have to amend the Constitution to change that. Neither the president nor Congress can do that alone.


Congress is given the power to establish a post office, but is not granted a monopoly. Today letters are delivered routinely by many private carriers, and this has always been the case -- the Pony Express for example.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> There is a push in the U.S. to let 16-year-olds vote. Imagine the changes in government if that happens.
> 
> 16-year-olds know _nothing_ of life.


some 16-year-olds are wiser than many 70-year olds. At least I was at that age.


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> some 16-year-olds are wiser than many 70-year olds. At least I was at that age.


A false attribution but apropos: "Mark Twain says that at seventeen he could scarcely endure his father, the old gentleman was so ignorant; at twenty he noticed that his father said a sensible thing occasionally; at twenty-five he was astonished at the improvement his father had made in the last eight years."


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> some 16-year-olds are wiser than many 70-year olds. At least I was at that age.


Most teenagers are heavily governed by the massive amounts of hormones pumping through their bodies, have incomplete educations, and are still dependent on parents to meet their basic needs. If you really want to improve political involvement, lowering the voting age seems like a poor idea. Sure, there will be exceptions. But you don't plan around exceptions.


----------



## Open Book

Kieran said:


> In fairness, given the lack of uniformity among the scientists in how to deal with the pandemic, it often seems that they're also involved in guesswork. One thing that isn't really a guess is, that if whole economies collapse into a black hole of spiralling debt, zero growth, massive unemployment, increased numbers of homelessness, hopelessness, anger and fear, there'll be trouble. We have huge healthy populations locked up, and itching to move. Now, this doesn't mean I'm suggesting we open the gates and say, "have at it, chaps!"
> 
> But it isn't really guesswork to suggest what the effect of a huge economic depression will be. We've seen it before. It may even lead to wars. The balance must be found, so governments know when is the exact time to pounce. But I don't think many people are suggesting a reckless breakout, with so much still in the balance. In Ireland, our health system isn't fully under control, so we may have a further period of patience after May 5th...


You keep saying this, but you never answer my question. Of course a massive depression is frightening. It scares the hell out of me.

But if restrictions are lifted prematurely, do you think people are going to immediately go right back to their old way of life, that's been fueling the economy? If they're like me, they will continue to be cautious and stay away from crowds. I am worried about being in an enclosed space indoors with possibly infected people breathing the same air for hours on end. If enough people feel as I do, they will not attend professional sports, concerts, art museums, casinos, restaurants, university classes, brick and mortar stores.

These places will all suffer from the lack of traffic. Most restaurants can't survive on a sparsely filled dining room every night due to people being seated a distance from each other. Art museums can't live on half revenues due to reduced patronage.

So the economy will suffer anyway. We're screwed anyway. And then what if the virus rebounds? Back to strict distancing and an even longer period of economic inactivity.

We can't lift social distancing restrictions until it's the right time, until we've made some progress against the virus.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Most teenagers are heavily governed by the massive amounts of hormones pumping through their bodies, have incomplete educations, and are still dependent on parents to meet their basic needs. If you really want to improve political involvement, lowering the voting age seems like a poor idea. Sure, there will be exceptions. But you don't plan around exceptions.


Personally, I experience the seniors as a much more dangerous group. We have some populist politicians here, that specifically target seniors, because they are the easiest to manipulate.
https://translate.google.com/transl...odcu-je-nebezpecnym-hybatelem-ceske-politiky/


----------



## Bulldog

Jacck said:


> Personally, I experience the seniors as a much more dangerous group. We have some populist politicians here, that specifically target seniors, because they are the easiest to manipulate.
> https://translate.google.com/transl...odcu-je-nebezpecnym-hybatelem-ceske-politiky/


As Trump has proven, it's easy to manipulate people of all age groups.


----------



## Jacck

Bulldog said:


> As Trump has proven, it's easy to manipulate people of all age groups.


yes, we have a famous humorist here who said something in the sense "A young stupid person will become and old stupid person one day". The idea that people are getting wiser with age might be just a myth. There are stupid people in all age groups and generations.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> Personally, I experience the seniors as a much more dangerous group. We have some populist politicians here, that specifically target seniors, because they are the easiest to manipulate.
> https://translate.google.com/transl...odcu-je-nebezpecnym-hybatelem-ceske-politiky/


This could be an ex-commie thing. I know some eastern Europeans in Ireland who often seem nostalgic and defensive about the "benefits" of living in the old USSR. In the west, we're more stumped by gullible youngsters who think communism/socialism are viable prospects for us. The idea of giving the vote to 16 year olds is a bit hilarious though. I know youngsters are sharp but 16 year old children are not ready yet to given such responsibilities...


----------



## Bigbang

Kieran said:


> In fairness, given the lack of uniformity among the scientists in how to deal with the pandemic, it often seems that they're also involved in guesswork. One thing that isn't really a guess is, that if whole economies collapse into a black hole of spiralling debt, zero growth, massive unemployment, increased numbers of homelessness, hopelessness, anger and fear, there'll be trouble. We have huge healthy populations locked up, and itching to move. Now, this doesn't mean I'm suggesting we open the gates and say, "have at it, chaps!"
> 
> But it isn't really guesswork to suggest what the effect of a huge economic depression will be. We've seen it before. It may even lead to wars. The balance must be found, so governments know when is the exact time to pounce. But I don't think many people are suggesting a reckless breakout, with so much still in the balance. In Ireland, our health system isn't fully under control, so we may have a further period of patience after May 5th...


It is fair game if anyone with the smarts and education to go ahead and predict the future based on what we know now and new changes along the way, and be on record as such. Me, I might even fancy this myself using baby talk but I am mighty good at predicting the future just looking at the present. Stare back in the past a little, peer in the present (lets not forget Trump require a jiggle equation of uncertainty of the like we many not see again). So that jiggle along with elections....


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bulldog said:


> As Trump has proven, it's easy to manipulate people of all age groups.


As politicians have proven, it's easy to manipulate people of all age groups. Particularly when you promise to take money only from "other people" in order to give them "free" things.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> yes, we have a famous humorist here who said something in the sense "A young stupid person will become and old stupid person one day". The idea that people are getting wiser with age might be just a myth. There are stupid people in all age groups and generations.


That is true. But at least we should take the massive variable of raging hormones that is specific to teenagers out of the equation.


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> This could be an ex-commie thing. I know some eastern Europeans in Ireland who often seem nostalgic and defensive about the "benefits" of living in the old USSR. In the west, we're more stumped by gullible youngsters who think communism/socialism are viable prospects for us. The idea of giving the vote to 16 year olds is a bit hilarious though. I know youngsters are sharp but 16 year old children are not ready yet to given such responsibilities...


equating socialism with communism is one of the propaganda tricks of the conservatives in the anglosaxon world. The sorry state of the anglosaxon world nowadays is in my opinion a direct consequence of 40 years of right-wing neoliberalism. It started with Reagan and Thatcher and led to a desintegration of the whole social fabric. Ideological BS such as "minimal state, privatize everything and no regulation" led to many serious problems. There were some good documentaries by Adam Curtis, that explained the whole background of the neoliberal dogma. I think it was "The Century of the Self", but I cannot remember which episode


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> equating socialism with communism is one of the propaganda tricks of the conservatives in the anglosaxon world. The sorry state of the anglosaxon world nowadays is in my opinion a direct consequence of 40 years of right-wing neoliberalism. It started with Reagan and Thatcher and led to a desintegration of the whole social fabric. Ideological BS such as "minimal state, privatize everything and no regulation" led to many serious problems. There were some good documentaries by Adam Curtis, that explained the whole background of the neoliberal dogma. I think it was "The Century of the Self", but I cannot remember which episode


I'm not saying Socialism=Communism. I'm saying they're both bad ideas, that don't work, but kids get caught up in thinking somehow they're more compassionate and caring, etc. The rest of your stuff about Reagan and neoliberals etc, has nothing to do with me...


----------



## Flamme

As far as eastern or central europe goes I know 4 poland that many youngsters are political but prone 2 support of right wing extremism, although most of them dont even vote but support different militant organisations.


----------



## Bigbang

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> There postal monopoly is established in the Constitution. You would have to amend the Constitution to change that. Neither the president nor Congress can do that alone.


The bottom line is this: USPS runs out of money to operate, taxpayers (and revenue) will fund its operation. Congress know this already. If they wish to do so indefinitely so be it. But if not changes have to be made and Congress will have to get directly involved, the President really has no say but Trump would like to run it (sure, go ahead) but in the end--two choices.


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> As far as eastern or central europe goes I know 4 poland that many youngsters are political but prone 2 support of right wing extremism, although most of them dont even vote but support different militant organisations.


Yeah? it's interesting how the divide happens across generations. As Jacck says, there's stoopah everywhere, age is no limiting factor....


----------



## Flamme

Poles I have met range from 19-20 something and although very intelligent they are prone 2 almost militant ''herd mentality''...


----------



## erki

Open Book said:


> 16-year-olds know _nothing_ of life.


It is another dogma or myth from the past and bear in mind that they are the ones who will be living with s*** we made.


Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Most teenagers are heavily governed by the massive amounts of hormones pumping through their bodies


It could be said that person by the age of 25 with the family and mortgage is so trapped and brainwashed by the system that their choices are extremely limited already. So these hormone driven youngsters may have much clearer and broader view of what is right and what is not.


----------



## erki

Kieran said:


> This could be an ex-commie thing.


Oh, come on you can't be that......


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> equating socialism with communism is one of the propaganda tricks of the conservatives in the anglosaxon world. The sorry state of the anglosaxon world nowadays is in my opinion a direct consequence of 40 years of right-wing neoliberalism. It started with Reagan and Thatcher and led to a desintegration of the whole social fabric. Ideological BS such as "minimal state, privatize everything and no regulation" led to many serious problems. There were some good documentaries by Adam Curtis, that explained the whole background of the neoliberal dogma. I think it was "The Century of the Self", but I cannot remember which episode


You are right - communism is so unworkable that even the most devout proponents have never been able to get to it, let alone make it work. They all get stuck in the never-ending intermediate socialism loop, and then the leaders realize they would lose all kinds of power if they were to advance to pure communism, so they stay frozen there.

Reagan and Thatcher are popular targets of the left. It is interesting to note, though, that both led their countries out of some pretty horrid financial situations that previous leftist statists had taken them to. The 1980s were wonderful eras for both countries, especially given how horrible the 1970s were for both countries. And the fact that they both contributed massively to help Eastern Europe emerge into a world where you are now free to say whatever you want without fear of whatever version of the secret police your country previously had.


----------



## KenOC

Bigbang said:


> The bottom line is this: USPS runs out of money to operate, taxpayers (and revenue) will fund its operation. Congress know this already. If they wish to do so indefinitely so be it. But if not changes have to be made and Congress will have to get directly involved, the President really has no say but Trump would like to run it (sure, go ahead) but in the end--two choices.


An interesting factoid about the USPS. When it was reorganized as a "corporation," Congress required that it generously fund its employees' retirements. How generous? Funds had to be set aside even for employees that were not yet hired!

This generated (and till generates I suppose) huge amounts of money that go into the USPS retirement fund as cash. And by law, that cash is deposited in the treasury and replaced with T-bills, otherwise known as IOUs. And what does the treasury do with the cash? It spends it. Right now. This year. To reduce the cash deficit. Just like the Social Security "Trust Fund" money. In both cases, the T-bills are accounted for in the domestic portion of the national debt. And in both cases, it's getting harder and harder to see how the treasury's debt to these funds will ever be repaid. And those T-bills _will _come due, and the funds _will _have to disburse cash.


----------



## Open Book

erki said:


> It is another dogma or myth from the past and bear in mind that they are the ones who will be living with s*** we made.


Oh, why didn't you say so. Let's lower the voting age to 12, then, by that logic. Or lower.

Most teens are still supported by their parents and in school. Mostly everything is still given to them rather than that they know what it is like to have to earn it and be responsible. They still lack mature judgment. The're just learning how the world works.

And they are tearing away from their parents so they tend to be rebellious toward authority. Government represents authority.

There are a tiny number of exceptions maybe.

Look how communist China exploited young people, had them rat on their parents for not being good enough communists. Kids with power is a scary thought.


----------



## Flamme

Allegedly used them in ''Cultural Revolution'' as a main iron fist against philosophers and intelligentsia...Also many jihadist groups use them as suicide bombers or child soldiers...I think not only youth but ppl in general are not what they used 2 be...


----------



## Kieran

erki said:


> Oh, come on you can't be that......


What I mean is, I know a lot of eastern Europeans, from the old Soviet bloc, who get defensive and try to persuade that things weren't so bad there, and some even (from your country) who are Russians who like Putin, and defend the old USSR. My masseuse is one. They don't quite get nostalgic, but they also don;'t accept that they came west because their old system left them in ruins. They'll find some way around this way of thinking, to suggest that actually, it was in some ways superior.

I don't mind that they get like this. People are allowed to hold different thoughts...


----------



## mrdoc

I find this thread very hard to keep up with every time I log on there are at least 5 pages to catch up on so I just skip to the last page, I know its up to me but just saying.


----------



## bz3

KenOC said:


> An interesting factoid about the USPS. When it was reorganized as a "corporation," Congress required that it generously fund its employees' retirements. How generous? Funds had to be set aside even for employees that were not yet hired!
> 
> This generated (and till generates I suppose) huge amounts of money that go into the USPS retirement fund as cash. And by law, that cash is deposited in the treasury and replaced with T-bills, otherwise known as IOUs. And what does the treasury do with the cash? It spends it. Right now. This year. To reduce the cash deficit. Just like the Social Security "Trust Fund" money. In both cases, the T-bills are accounted for in the domestic portion of the national debt. And in both cases, it's getting harder and harder to see how the treasury's debt to these funds will ever be repaid. And those T-bills _will _come due, and the funds _will _have to disburse cash.


The bigbrains in banking seem to be operating under a 'just print more bro' sort of attitude and they don't even really bother with good propaganda anymore. One of the few that gives it a shot is the NPR show Marketplace, which I believe has the highest paid propagandist (ahem excuse me 'journalist') among all of NPR. Sort of tells how high of a priority it is. One wonders how this plan will continue to work when we're not the world's reserve currency.


----------



## Bigbang

Open Book said:


> There is a push in the U.S. to let 16-year-olds vote. Imagine the changes in government if that happens.
> 
> 16-year-olds know _nothing_ of life.


Not sure what changes in government means but I doubt that many 16 year would stand in line for hours to vote unless parents are holding them by the ear and parents are telling them who to vote for. But really people vote based on superficial choices and past choices so I am hardly worried about 16 year olds. I am worried why voters are willing to vote the same as last time....but that is now moving into wrong direction in thread.


----------



## KenOC

Social distancing, SoCal style! Huntington Beach yesterday during the year's first heat wave.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Congress is given the power to establish a post office, but is not granted a monopoly. Today letters are delivered routinely by many private carriers, and this has always been the case -- the Pony Express for example.


In spite of being heavily subsidized, the *Pony Express* was a financial disaster and went bankrupt in 18 months.

.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Most teenagers are heavily governed by the massive amounts of hormones pumping through their bodies, have incomplete educations, and are still dependent on parents to meet their basic needs. If you really want to improve political involvement, lowering the voting age seems like a poor idea. Sure, there will be exceptions. But you don't plan around exceptions.





Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> That is true. But at least we should take the massive variable of raging hormones that is specific to teenagers out of the equation.


I hate to have to put your two remarks into a different context, but "_*hormones*_" is the excuse given for not allowing *women* to vote, hold property, or even compete in the workplace.

Their "differentness" allowed old white men to retain dominance over them, just as they did with slaves. And they justified slavery by saying that we're doing them a favor, because they're just made inferior.

Saying that teenagers cannot use critical thinking because of their raging hormones is *Age Bigotry*. This is more usual when people make claims about the capabilities of older workers because of their age the same way that bigots make claims that women or members of racial minorities are inferior because of their ethnicity and gender, but you're claiming that teens are inferior because of age.

Your comments have an ageist bigotry smell to them.

.



mrdoc said:


> I find this thread very hard to keep up with every time I log on there are at least 5 pages to catch up on so I just skip to the last page, I know its up to me but just saying.


Right?!

Hot topic, I guess.


----------



## KenOC

pianozach said:


> I hate to have to put your two remarks into a different context, but "_*hormones*_" is the excuse given for not allowing *women* to vote, hold property, or even compete in the workplace.
> 
> Their "differentness" allowed old white men to retain dominance over them, just as they did with slaves. And they justified slavery by saying that we're doing them a favor, because they're just made inferior.
> 
> Saying that teenagers cannot use critical thinking because of their raging hormones is *Age Bigotry*. This is more usual when people make claims about the capabilities of older workers because of their age the same way that bigots make claims that women or members of racial minorities are inferior because of their ethnicity and gender, but you're claiming that teens are inferior because of age.
> 
> Your comments have an ageist bigotry smell to them.


Gee, I guess you don't want to hear my collection of Polish jokes...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bigbang said:


> Not sure what changes in government means but I doubt that many 16 year would stand in line for hours to vote unless parents are holding them by the ear and parents are telling them who to vote for. But really people vote based on superficial choices and past choices so I am hardly worried about 16 year olds. I am worried why voters are willing to vote the same as last time....but that is now moving into wrong direction in thread.


I recognize there are some places where lengthy polling lines may mean long waits - I've never lived in such a place. Never had to wait any longer than it took a poll worker to find my name, hand me a ballot, and point to a table/booth.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> In spite of being heavily subsidized, the *Pony Express* was not a financial disaster and went bankrupt in 18 months.
> 
> .
> 
> I hate to have to put your two remarks into a different context, but "_*hormones*_" is the excuse given for not allowing *women* to vote, hold property, or even compete in the workplace.
> 
> Their "differentness" allowed old white men to retain dominance over them, just as they did with slaves. And they justified slavery by saying that we're doing them a favor, because they're just made inferior.
> 
> Saying that teenagers cannot use critical thinking because of their raging hormones is *Age Bigotry*. This is more usual when people make claims about the capabilities of older workers because of their age the same way that bigots make claims that women or members of racial minorities are inferior because of their ethnicity and gender, but you're claiming that teens are inferior because of age.
> 
> Your comments have an ageist bigotry smell to them.
> 
> .
> 
> Right?!
> 
> Hot topic, I guess.


Sure. Whatever. You wouldn't happen to be in that demographic, would you? So why 16? Why not 14? Why not 12? Why do you discriminate to people younger than 16? What is the difference between a 16 year old and a 10 year old, if you aren't allowed to take age into account lest you be guilty of the sin of ageism? Please tell me where you would cut it off and why.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

No confirmed virus in our county . We hope the bowling alley opens soon . Social distancing is
being naturally relaxed day by day .


----------



## EdwardBast

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I recognize there are some places where lengthy polling lines may mean long waits - I've never lived in such a place. Never had to wait any longer than it took a poll worker to find my name, hand me a ballot, and point to a table/booth.


So you're white then?


----------



## DaveM

Geez guys, regarding 16 year olds voting, let’s use some kind of common sense. Some are saying they know some 16 year olds who are more mature than some older people they know. Another is talking about ageism. First of all, we do know that the judgment centers of the brain do not fully mature until circa 25 years so voting at 21 is being fairly ‘liberal’ (not politically), not to mention 18...

But more important is the fact that, by far, 16 year olds are still totally dependent on other people (mostly parents) for food, a roof over their head, education and virtually everything else. How could kids of that age have the perspective to vote for a political persuasion that involves self-responsibility, entrepreneurship and providing for themselves? And don’t tell me about 16 year olds that you know that are more mature and knowledgeable than some older people. For every one of those that you know, there are dozens that don’t yet have much of a clue how to survive in this world on their own.


----------



## Guest

mmsbls said:


> I think the issue is that many people believe they are making common sense statements when actually they are discussing extremely complex issues that require detailed analysis.
> 
> Yes, those business people understand their businesses and know to what extent their business can survive sheltering in place and how much they may be hurt economically by such policies. Most do not understand global macroeconomics and likely do not fully understand the effect of the pandemic given various strategies to gradually open the economy. Anyone arguing that the economy must be opened up because many small businesses will suffer greatly is essentially identical to someone arguing we must keep the economy closed because the virus will cause catastrophic harm.
> 
> It's simply not enough to argue "A closed economy will cause irrevocable harm" or "Opening the economy will cause irrevocable harm." Scenarios must be considered that cause the _least overall harm to both the economy and health_. That's a very complex, difficult decision.
> 
> Those may seem like common sense statements, but they are just as common sense as:
> 
> We must to shelter in place with strict government oversight of behavior to contain the virus.
> 
> or
> 
> The economic hardship palls in comparison to the potential catastrophic death toll.
> 
> I hope everyone who will make decisions about sheltering in place versus opening the economy will make extensive use of expertise in both macroeconomics and pandemic behavior. Without both, people are simply guessing or allowing their biases to dominate their thinking. The decision is much too important to leave it up guesses or strongly biased thinking.


In Australia we are devastating our economy to ensure the survival of people in aged care and those over 70. If you don't think there will be a blow-back and huge resentment from this do think again. Already the 'baby boomers' (as we call them in Australia) are accused of holding all the assets and real estate in our nation (and that's why I've called this the 'inheritance pandemic'). We have had circa 80 deaths and nobody under 65 has died. People are calling on our government to get things moving again as quickly as possible. I'm prepared to quarantine and self-isolate if it means my children can resume work and be able to pay off their mortgages. We ourselves have had our retirement income severely hit - not just through a blitzkrieg on the sharemarket but because our returns (dividends) have been reduced by 70%. I'm terribly concerned about the fate of ordinary people who are now living on handouts; the very demographic which will not be affected by Covid-19. People are starting to talk about this now in ever-growing numbers.

And we do know that the issue of "jobs and growth" are the things which win elections. The only people in Australia calling for more lockdowns are public servants and their retiree cohort - all on government-guaranteed incomes. One of my sons, who has his own winemaking business, has gone to the wall as a result of all this: years of hard work and capital risk wiped out within a matter of weeks. If a business doesn't move it's like a brain; cut the oxygen off and it dies.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> I hate to have to put your two remarks into a different context, but "_*hormones*_" is the excuse given for not allowing *women* to vote, hold property, or even compete in the workplace.
> 
> Their "differentness" allowed old white men to retain dominance over them, just as they did with slaves. And they justified slavery by saying that we're doing them a favor, because they're just made inferior.
> 
> Saying that teenagers cannot use critical thinking because of their raging hormones is *Age Bigotry*. This is more usual when people make claims about the capabilities of older workers because of their age the same way that bigots make claims that women or members of racial minorities are inferior because of their ethnicity and gender, but you're claiming that teens are inferior because of age.
> 
> Your comments have an ageist bigotry smell to them.
> 
> Right?!
> 
> Hot topic, I guess.


Except that unlike race and gender, teenage is a temporary state. Hopefully.

Juveniles are treated with more leniency in the court system because of their age. Should they be allowed to vote, I guess they should be sentenced and jailed as adults, eh?

At what age do you think people should be allowed to vote?


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Sure. Whatever. You wouldn't happen to be in that demographic, would you? So why 16? Why not 14? Why not 12? Why do you discriminate to people younger than 16? What is the difference between a 16 year old and a 10 year old, if you aren't allowed to take age into account lest you be guilty of the sin of ageism? Please tell me where you would cut it off and why.


I'm not trying to raise or lower the age limit. *I just object to trivializing 16 year olds based on "raging hormones".*

Hell, the voting age used to be 21. The rationale was that 18 year olds weren't mature, or schooled, or whatever. But somewhere along the line we realized that this notion was silly. If we can trust an 18 year old with a rifle and a mess kit and send him overseas to fight fascists and imperialists, why can't they vote?

Anyway, I'm objecting to the objection that they are hormone-laden loose cannons.


----------



## KenOC

Christabel said:


> In Australia we are devastating our economy to ensure the survival of people in aged care and those over 70. If you don't think there will be a blow-back and huge resentment from this do think again. Already the 'baby boomers' (as we call them in Australia) are accused of holding all the assets and real estate in our nation (and that's why I've called this the 'inheritance pandemic')...


For myself, I'm pretty elderly with just social security income. But I'm lucky enough to have some reserves and a paid-for home.

My son, 41, isn't so lucky. His entire industry, where he has spent his whole working life, has disappeared - evaporated just like that, leaving no trace. He and his wife had their first child today (!) but they can't pay the rent with his new "career," schlepping tons if groceries around supermarkets at night restocking shelves.

So all three of them will be moving in with my wife and me, not a good thing really but that's what families are for.

Meanwhile, anti-boomer sentiment is somewhat visible where I live, but really not that noticeable - yet. If people want to open up early at the cost of some aging lives, I won't complain. Isn't that what Boris Johnson called the "last gasp" policy? :lol:


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> For myself, I'm pretty elderly with just social security income. But I'm lucky enough to have some reserves and a paid-for home.
> 
> My son, 41, isn't so lucky. His entire industry, where he has spent his whole working life, has disappeared - evaporated just like that, leaving no trace. He and his wife had their first child today (!) but they can't pay the rent with his new "career," schlepping tons if groceries around supermarkets at night restocking shelves.
> 
> So all three of them will be moving in with my wife and me, not a good thing really but that's what families are for.
> 
> Meanwhile, anti-boomer sentiment is somewhat visible where I live, but really not that noticeable - yet. If people want to open up early at the cost of some aging lives, I won't complain. Isn't that what Boris Johnson called the "last gasp" policy? :lol:


Congratulations Ken on the grandchild! Sorry for your son's loss of the industry he worked in. One can say what they want about us boomers, but we do take care of our own!


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> For myself, I'm pretty elderly with just social security income. But I'm lucky enough to have some reserves and a paid-for home.
> 
> My son, 41, isn't so lucky. His entire industry, where he has spent his whole working life, has disappeared - evaporated just like that, leaving no trace. He and his wife had their first child today (!) but they can't pay the rent with his new "career," schlepping tons if groceries around supermarkets at night restocking shelves.
> 
> So all three of them will be moving in with my wife and me, not a good thing really but that's what families are for.
> 
> Meanwhile, anti-boomer sentiment is somewhat visible where I live, but really not that noticeable - yet. If people want to open up early at the cost of some aging lives, I won't complain. Isn't that what Boris Johnson called the "last gasp" policy? :lol:


I'm so terribly sorry to hear about your son. I suspect this story will be told over and over again. We have lived our lives and our main concern now now is for our 4 children and their children. My son who has lost his wine business is unemployed, with 2 children to support (part custody). He may soon have them full time because his ex wife, 42, is very seriously ill with breast cancer. In short, Covid-19 is the very least of his concerns.

Our Prime Minister (for whom one of my children works) is still talking about protecting the elderly - in nursing care, for god's sake. When I'm sucking sago through a straw and talking to myself like a mad relation don't be trying to protect me from a pandemic!!!


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> Congratulations Ken on the grandchild! Sorry for your son's loss of the industry he worked in. One can say what they want about us boomers, but we do take care of our own!


Not only did the boomers take care of their parents and now take care of their children (and their kids). Guess that means that boomers are "the next greatest generation."


----------



## aleazk

The amplitude of topics covered in this thread seems to show how pandemics reveal the many peculiarities, to use a word, of our social... and human... fabric 

Mmm, after seeing that mirror: God or whoever, I want my money back!


----------



## mmsbls

Kieran said:


> In fairness, given the lack of uniformity among the scientists in how to deal with the pandemic, it often seems that they're also involved in guesswork. One thing that isn't really a guess is, that if whole economies collapse into a black hole of spiralling debt, zero growth, massive unemployment, increased numbers of homelessness, hopelessness, anger and fear, there'll be trouble. We have huge healthy populations locked up, and itching to move. Now, this doesn't mean I'm suggesting we open the gates and say, "have at it, chaps!"


I'm uncertain exactly what you are arguing. You seem to be saying that we can't shelter in place forever, but we shouldn't simply open up completely tomorrow. So you would advocate something in between. So would I.



Kieran said:


> But it isn't really guesswork to suggest what the effect of a huge economic depression will be. We've seen it before. It may even lead to wars.


It's not complete guesswork to estimate the effect of a large economic depression. But it would be guesswork to choose opening up without estimating the effect of both scenarios (i.e. opening up and continuing to shelter in place). Without having estimates of various paths forward, you have vast uncertainty on how to proceed.

Imagine if aliens with perfect knowledge of reality came down and told you that sheltering in place for another 2 months would lead to a decrease in the US GDP of $8.156214 trillion, 9,213 excess deaths including 514 suicides, excess mental health problems valued at precisely $34,779,625, 001, as well as other problems valued at $90,000,000,000. You would have remarkable knowledge of the effects of sheltering in place. You would not need to guess at that figure. But choosing to open up would still be guesswork because you would have enormous uncertainty of the alternative scenario (i.e. the effects of opening up). Which would be better - opening up or sheltering in place? Without both estimates, one must guess. That is my point.



Kieran said:


> The balance must be found, so governments know when is the exact time to pounce. But I don't think many people are suggesting a reckless breakout, with so much still in the balance. In Ireland, our health system isn't fully under control, so we may have a further period of patience after May 5th...


I agree here. We must try to understand a variety of possible futures to determine which scenario, out of perhaps many, gives the best outcomes. That outcome will be horrible no matter which path is chosen. There will be many deaths, serious economic hardship, and other negatives effects.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> Congratulations Ken on the grandchild! Sorry for your son's loss of the industry he worked in. One can say what they want about us boomers, but we do take care of our own!


1st pic, at about 20 minutes. This was supposed to be a home birth with a midwife, but things got complicated.


----------



## Bigbang

KenOC said:


> An interesting factoid about the USPS. When it was reorganized as a "corporation," Congress required that it generously fund its employees' retirements. How generous? Funds had to be set aside even for employees that were not yet hired!
> 
> This generated (and till generates I suppose) huge amounts of money that go into the USPS retirement fund as cash. And by law, that cash is deposited in the treasury and replaced with T-bills, otherwise known as IOUs. And what does the treasury do with the cash? It spends it. Right now. This year. To reduce the cash deficit. Just like the Social Security "Trust Fund" money. In both cases, the T-bills are accounted for in the domestic portion of the national debt. And in both cases, it's getting harder and harder to see how the treasury's debt to these funds will ever be repaid. And those T-bills _will _come due, and the funds _will _have to disburse cash.


The unions like to say this about the pre funding that that no other company does this. First, this is a matter of dispute. Second, if the money was available then what? USPS has already defaulted on payments to various aspects of the pension system. Congress knew one thing for sure, cover it now or let taxpayer pay for it. Also could have invested (still can, soon the better) in mutual funds stocks/bonds to raise more money but no, keep in low interest treasury.

Get this: With his arms crossed and angry, Trump refuses to aid the USPS unless they raise their prices on parcels and mention Amazon at least 4 or more times and could not even name other internet companies. His financiar yes man was there to confirm all that Trump stated had to happen. Well now, USPS...here is what you do...Say yes Mr. President, raise price (Bezos laughing) and USPS loses package business. USPS goes back to Congress/President and guess what? Your bailout money helped us through the losses by raising prices as Amazon has their delivery service and others use the other carriers too. What does the President say?? "I never said to do that, you guys just don't listen". Wait, there more...now an election is at stake...people are realizing what is going on...voting must be allowed by mail....wait....to be continued...


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> 1st pic, at about 20 minutes. This was supposed to be a home birth with a midwife, but things got complicated.


Brought tears to my eyes..really! Sounds as if everything turned out okay. Play Beethoven for the little critter every day!


----------



## bz3

KenOC said:


> My son, 41, isn't so lucky. His entire industry, where he has spent his whole working life, has disappeared - evaporated just like that, leaving no trace. He and his wife had their first child today (!) but they can't pay the rent with his new "career," schlepping tons if groceries around supermarkets at night restocking shelves.


Congrats Ken. I'm a bit younger than your son and haven't lost my job (yet) but it's a tricky question. Another user quoted me earlier to the effect that I may not respect the 'old and infirm' (my words) enough. I didn't respond but I don't agree with that. I care for my mother and visit her frequently and so I respect governmental regulations almost entirely because of her and the other 70+ people in my life.

My only point was essentially what you said, that this situation is not sustainable and that perhaps what Sweden did (advising against large gatherings, social distancing, and isolating old and ill) has some merit. I know plenty of people out of jobs but not anyone whose industry is just gone but I can imagine. Hopefully the transition is smooth and, if I were a grandparent, I would secretly enjoy having my newborn grandchild under my roof.


----------



## Guest

Some facts about Covid-19 which justify the concerns from people about shutting down the world economy:


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> For myself, I'm pretty elderly with just social security income. But I'm lucky enough to have some reserves and a paid-for home.
> 
> My son, 41, isn't so lucky. His entire industry, where he has spent his whole working life, has disappeared - evaporated just like that, leaving no trace. He and his wife had their first child today (!) but they can't pay the rent with his new "career," schlepping tons if groceries around supermarkets at night restocking shelves.
> 
> So all three of them will be moving in with my wife and me, not a good thing really but that's what families are for.
> 
> Meanwhile, anti-boomer sentiment is somewhat visible where I live, but really not that noticeable - yet. If people want to open up early at the cost of some aging lives, I won't complain. Isn't that what Boris Johnson called the "last gasp" policy? :lol:


The world is full of terrible stories such as you have told. The grandchild is a blessing, regardless. Good that you are in a position to help, though I know it is not easy for any concerned.


----------



## Guest

We are having a gradual loosening of the lockdown from today onwards in Australia, but it will be protracted over months rather than weeks or days. And state by state will look at their own jurisdictions to make independent decisions. Let's hope there's something left by way of an economy when it's all over. Not looking good.


----------



## Guest

TxllxT said:


> Now the Russians say the same as Czech Dr. S. Pekova https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...bsolutely-crazy-things-alter-coronavirus.html
> "Wuhan laboratory scientists 'did absolutely crazy things' to alter coronavirus and enabled it to infect humans, Russian microbiologist claims"


Txllxt - you've had several posters comment on this idea, but instead of considering and responding, you just keep pushing it. Try engaging with your fellow posters. Thanks.



Jacck said:


> Personally, I experience the seniors as a much more dangerous group


Seniors - what age are we talking about here? And 'dangerous' - in what way?

[Edited]


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> In Australia we are devastating our economy to ensure the survival of people in aged care and those over 70.


Well that's not what I hear, either from family we have in Brisbane about your government, or from ours.

First, no one is setting out to devastate the economy (though conspiracy think otherwise).
Second, this is not just about protecting "people in care and those over 70).
But third, even if it was - so what? Over 70s have suddenly become dispensable?

I posted several pages back on this point, but it's been overlooked (or ignored) so rather than re-argue, I'll just post it here



> I'm concerned by what appears to be a dismissal of "the old and the infirm". It seems to suggest that we could bear a high price for "cratering the economy" and "ushering in a police state" if the illness affected all ages, or why not the working man, or, perhaps, all our young?
> 
> Since when was life of variable value, depending on your age bracket and economic productivity?
> 
> If you want to be calculating about it, the whole point about not letting health services be overwhelmed is so that only the most vulnerable die and the general population is safe. It's obvious that a proportion of those surviving are doing so because of a quality of care they are getting which would be much less likely in an overrun system.
> 
> And no, I have no underlying health conditions nor over 70. I am 61, early retired but still pay taxes, so I'm as personally invested in the economy as anyone else. Furthermore, I have two sons whose future - domestic and economic - I am also invested in. One still at work on a major UK infrastructure project, the other furloughed in the hospitality industry.
> 
> No-one is disputing that the toll on our economies is signficant and brings with it its own health challenges. But I have no time for anyone who wants to open up 'early' and gamble on being able to manage the deaths yet to come, just because they think its only the old folks who are going to croak.


How serious is the new coronavirus?



> We have had circa 80 deaths and *nobody under 65 has died*


A) not true
B) so what?


----------



## Guest

I'm struck by how many people want us to get back on the hamster wheel NOW, before we realise that's what we're on and say that actually, we now know that we don't want to: we want something better, not just the same as before.

I'm not optimistic that this pause in the business of modern life will result in any change for the better.


----------



## KenOC

MacLeod said:


> I'm struck by how many people want us to get back on the hamster wheel NOW, before we realise that's what we're on and say that actually, we now know that we don't want to: we want something better, not just the same as before...


An interesting view, but I'd sure like some more details!


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> An interesting view, but I'd sure like some more details!


It's obviously a personal spin on the debates going on in the UK (and reported elsewhere and reflected here) that our number one priority is to get everyone back to work as quickly as possible, seemingly regardless of the potential health risks, so that we can get back to our number one priority, which is making money.

It's also a reflection on the media stories about how the sky is now bluer and pollution cut substantially (air, light, noise); how families are compelled to spend more time together; how more basic exercise is being taken (walking, running, cycling as opposed to going to plug in to the gym or celebrity sport); how home cooking/baking is booming; online learning increasing; participation in creative activities; etc etc.

Despite what has been lost, something has been gained, but there's little point celebrating, say, the drop in pollution if this glimpse of a healthier alternative life is to be thrown away without any consideration of how we might capitalise on it.


----------



## schigolch

MacLeod said:


> It's obviously a personal spin on the debates going on in the UK (and reported elsewhere and reflected here) that our number one priority is to get everyone back to work as quickly as possible, seemingly regardless of the potential health risks, so that we can get back to our number one priority, which is making money.
> 
> It's also a reflection on the media stories about how the sky is now bluer and pollution cut substantially (air, light, noise); how families are compelled to spend more time together; how more basic exercise is being taken (walking, running, cycling as opposed to going to plug in to the gym or celebrity sport); how home cooking/baking is booming; online learning increasing; participation in creative activities; etc etc.
> 
> Despite what has been lost, something has been gained, but there's little point celebrating, say, the drop in pollution if this glimpse of a healthier alternative life is to be thrown away without any consideration of how we might capitalise on it.


I'd say the point here is that many people don't want a "healthier alternative life", but getting back to their old regular life.

And I do think this is exactly what's going to happen, after a vaccine or an effective treatment of the disease is found. After all, when the 1918 flu disappeared, most people was just perfectly happy to continue with their normal lives, and the roaring twenties, and the many changes that came from the Great War followed.

It's human nature, I guess.


----------



## erki

Christabel said:


> Some facts about Covid-19 which justify the concerns from people about shutting down the world economy:


It is very interesting however some questions did not get answered clearly. Maybe I did not understood it. For instance when comparing Sweden and Norway I see big difference: Sweden 18640 cases>>2194 deaths; Norway 7527 cases>>201 deaths - how do they come up with very similar %. Also relatively small number of infected out of all tests(usually people with some kind of symptoms) indicates very low infection rate but deadly outcome if infected.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> Some facts about Covid-19 which justify the concerns from people about shutting down the world economy:


Which 'facts' exactly?

This isn't just about 'facts'. It's about which facts, what emphasis, what context, who's spinning them, how they analyse them..etc etc.

Two more doctors give their opinions...get in line.


----------



## erki

MacLeod said:


> Which 'facts' exactly?
> 
> This isn't just about 'facts'. It's about which facts, what emphasis, what context, who's spinning them, how they analyse them..etc etc.
> 
> Two more doctors give their opinions...get in line.


If you had watched the over hour long briefing you had your answers but as you seems to dismiss this as "Two more doctors give their opinions" I doubt you did.


----------



## Guest

erki said:


> If you had watched the over hour long briefing you had your answers but as you seems to dismiss this as "Two more doctors give their opinions" I doubt you did.


No, I didn't watch it. I don't have an hour to give to this today.

I did read this take on what they are saying:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...lar_to_the_flu_and_quarantine_should_end.html

I'm content that as far as what's happening in the *UK *is concerned, I've gleaned enough facts over the last two months to be going on with. I'm willing to accept the prevailing narrative *here *that now is not the time to end the lockdown. What these doctors are saying about their part of the world might well be valid. My objection to the post was not the video itself (or their facts), but the presentation by the poster that this is about the world economy and that it's about 'the facts' that tell us it should be opened up.


----------



## arpeggio

mmsbls said:


> It's hard enough to keep politics out of this thread. Please stop religious posts as well.


Unfortunantly religion is a significant part of the Republican movement. This is the point that Charles Sykes and David Frum have stated in their books about the current Republican Party.


----------



## erki

MacLeod said:


> No, I didn't watch it.


I do not waste an hour of my life too lightly as well. But this time I did.
The take I got is that you should start opening up as soon you are down to normal hospitalisation. If you never had beds filled then right away. Then you will get more hospitalisations but that is expected and normal and should not trigger lockdown(as long you can handle severe cases). Also it seems to be the case that in the end the death toll(%) will be very similar in every location. But maybe more in severely locked down places when death caused by this very lockdown is taken into count as well. 
So like in Spain, Italy NY we should proceed more carefully versus in Norway, Finland, Baltic we should open up rather fast.
Also I totally agree that many of the restrictions do not make sense. Like if the effect of wearing the mask is miniscule then better not to use it; if closing borders have less effect than producing problems down the line then not use it etc.
And they emphasise on the need of contacts of people in order to maintain healthy immune system.

The remedy to the problem should not do more harm than the problem itself!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

arpeggio said:


> Unfortunantly religion is a significant part of the Republican movement. This is the point that Charles Sykes and David Frum have stated in their books about the current Republican Party.


Even if that were relevant, this isn't a discussion of the Republican movement, but a discussion of the coronavirus. There are political and religious groups in the Groups section where you can discuss those things.


----------



## Room2201974

arpeggio said:


> Unfortunantly religion is a significant part of the Republican movement. This is the point that Charles Sykes and David Frum have stated in their books about the current Republican Party.


De facto Reichskonkordat! Judges for votes!


----------



## Guest

erki said:


> The remedy to the problem should not do more harm than the problem itself!


Oft quoted, and makes homely sense. In the reality of the coronavirus pandemic, we only have a single outcome: we can't _know_ (though we can speculate) what might have happened if we'd done things differently. So, the remedy we've chosen is the only one we can know about.


----------



## Guest

schigolch said:


> It's human nature, I guess.


Well that's the last thing we need!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> Oft quoted, and makes homely sense. In the reality of the coronavirus pandemic, we only have a single outcome: we can't _know_ (though we can speculate) what might have happened if we'd done things differently. So, the remedy we've chosen is the only one we can know about.


But if I remember, the original idea wasn't to shutdown in order to keep everybody inside until this whole thing blows over, but rather to "flatten the curve" - in other words, the concern was that hospitals would get overwhelmed and not be able to accommodate all the cases. So you spread them out over a longer period of time to make it more manageable for the hospitals. When did that shift to . . . whatever we are at now? I don't even know what the purported goal is now. Shut down until a treatment? Shutdown until a vaccine? Shutdown until who the hell knows when?

A vaccine is likely at least a year away if it comes at all. We still haven't developed vaccines against other diseases like HIV and HCV, even though we've been trying for a long time. Just because we are looking for a vaccine doesn't mean we will find one. How many years did they spend developing an Ebola vaccine? What if we never find a vaccine, or a really good treatment? What if all of these things people talk about us needing before we can open back up aren't here by, say, winter? And the virus persists.

I don't have the answers, but then I'm not paid to. Those who are paid to don't seem to be very forthcoming in offering them. They all appear to be more in the line of just criticizing most people who even dare to be worried about how they will pay their bills, accusing them of being slaves to capitalism, as opposed to just normal people who worry about how to provide for their family.


----------



## Flamme

British state secretary Dominic Raab said there will never be times like b4 february but something he calls the ''New Normal''...Sounds ominous.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Flamme said:


> British state secretary Dominic Raab said there will never be times like b4 february but something he calls the ''New Normal''...Sounds ominous.


Those are really pointless tautologies. No time is ever really like the time before it. Things are constantly changing. Sure, some things have more of an impact, but we don't ever stay in the same place. We are always hitting "New Normals."


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> But if I remember, the original idea wasn't to shutdown in order to keep everybody inside *until this whole thing blows over, but rather to "flatten the curve" - *in other words, the concern was that hospitals would get overwhelmed and not be able to accommodate all the cases. So you spread them out over a longer period of time to make it more manageable for the hospitals. When did that shift to . . . whatever we are at now? I don't even know what the purported goal is now. Shut down until a treatment? Shutdown until a vaccine? Shutdown until who the hell knows when?


It was both, obviously, since we were going to come out at some time.

I'm fairly clear what the goal is for the UK - though not the detail of how this is to be achieved.


Making sure the NHS can cope
Evidence showing a sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates
Reliable data showing the rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels
Being confident in the range of operational challenges, like ensuring testing and the right amount of PPE, are in hand
Being confident any adjustments will not risk a second peak

This suggests that we're not waiting for a vaccine or a treatment.


----------



## Flamme

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Those are really pointless tautologies. No time is ever really like the time before it. Things are constantly changing. Sure, some things have more of an impact, but we don't ever stay in the same place. We are always hitting "New Normals."


Yeah but u can her in his voice that this time is different, serious!!!


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> British state secretary Dominic Raab said there will never be times like b4 february but something he calls the ''New Normal''...Sounds ominous.


Well, it has the potential for good and bad. I'd prefer it to herald change for the better, so for example, the new normal might be less shopping/consumerism; increase public health activity; better hygiene; less car use.

Why can't that be described as 'the new normal'?


----------



## Kieran

Well, "the new normal" will be social distancing for a long while, and worst case, occasional lockdowns when the hospitals get overrun. But then we get back to the old normal, hopefully, when the virus is licked...


----------



## erki

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> When did that shift to . . . whatever we are at now?


I think it is possibly false assumption that the lockdown was the only action that worked ie. due to strict rules the virus is receding. So we shall not lift the lockdown because then virus returns. That is widely shared common opinion and thrown at anybody who is talking about opening. So basically people are so scared still that they cramp onto something that seemed to work.
When actually we would never know for sure why the virus is receding. Is it less oportunity to infect or is it mutations or UV light in the summer. What we may get to know is that Sweden will not be too much worse while economically(or by quality of life) they are better off.
So this kind of doctors briefings have huge value - to spread more normal point of view and take the scare factor down.


----------



## Art Rock

Sweden and Denmark should be reasonably comparable. Sweden took a more 'open' approach, Denmark more rigid rules. Per million people, Denmark now has 74 deaths, Sweden 225.


----------



## Sad Al

Kieran said:


> Well, "the new normal" will be social distancing for a long while, and worst case, occasional lockdowns when the hospitals get overrun. But then we get back to the old normal, hopefully, when the virus is licked...


----------



## Guest

Art Rock said:


> Sweden and Denmark should be reasonably comparable. Sweden took a more 'open' approach, Denmark more rigid rules. Per million people, Denmark now has 74 deaths, Sweden 225.


This may or may not be a valid comparison. As I write, journalists at the UK's daily televised briefing are still asking questions of the government's medical advisers, implying that the 21,000 deaths (in hospital, not elsewhere in the community) is a 'bad' figure, and 'worse' than country x.

This takes no account of the differences in the introduction, transmission and progress of the illness in each country, or the capacity of the country's infrastructure to respond (aside from the differing lockdown steps taken by each country.)


----------



## Kieran

MacLeod said:


> This may or may not be a valid comparison. As I write, journalists at the UK's daily televised briefing are still asking questions of the government's medical advisers, implying that the 21,000 deaths (in hospital, not elsewhere in the community) is a 'bad' figure, and 'worse' than country x.
> 
> This takes no account of the differences in the introduction, transmission and progress of the pandemic in each country, or the capacity of the country's infrastructure to respond (aside from the differing lockdown steps taken by each country.)


I see a lot of Irish people mock the UK response and point out how we've done it better - they do this without taking into consideration the density of both populations per km (UK 4 times more densely populated), and how the UK have twenty times more at risk people than we have. Each country is different, and we're all trying to handle it the best we can. It's good to learn how different approaches work, this can be very beneficial, but at the lower level of the discussion is always the cesspool of tribal politics too...


----------



## erki

Art Rock said:


> Sweden and Denmark should be reasonably comparable. Sweden took a more 'open' approach, Denmark more rigid rules. Per million people, Denmark now has 74 deaths, Sweden 225.


So what! If I could choose where to live right now it will be Sweden not Denmark.


----------



## Flamme

I would go 2 Finland.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> I would go 2 Finland.


If 'deaths per million' is the only criteria, I'd go to Ethiopia (currently only 0.03) or Yemen if it's 'number of cases per million' (also 0.03)


----------



## Flamme

No I like finald for a while now, I think its like 3 rd country in the world by hygiene, the preserving of nature...


----------



## Sad Al

Stay away, we're boring morons. TV is awful, I think micro-plastics are eating our brains and Serbian footballers are superior. It's pain pain pain. Have you read what Pentti Linkola thought about our preserving of nature? I called him a few weeks ago. He didn't answer, now he's dead. He thought that our preserving of nature is the worst in Europe.


----------



## elgar's ghost

I may have got this distorted in the mists of time but I thought the UK deaths total, although using only hospital figures, is inclusive of cases which occurred where the patient had Covid-19 but probably died (or was dying) of something else. I'm assuming rightly or wrongly that some countries are only counting deaths if the death itself was directly attributable to Covid-19 and not any other illness(es) that the patient may have had.


----------



## pianozach

erki said:


> If you had watched the over hour long briefing you had your answers but as you seems to dismiss this as "Two more doctors give their opinions" I doubt you did.


This doctor has some legit concerns, and brings up some very valid points. Lots of reasonable sounding stuff. Conspiracy theories always sound believable when you surround them with bunches of legit concerns.

This guy's agenda is his constitutional rights.

He's also angry that he could not get ammo last week at the gun shop.

On the second video, he suggests that the current quarantine is a plot by the government to see how far they can push us to remove our freedoms.

Seriously? All leaders of all nations have conspired globally to test the people's ability to be controlled at home - all the while negatively impacting GDP everywhere? He insults Fauci, as well, and implies that he and his sidekick know more. Where's the logic in this?

He's using data (from only 5000 tests in a not very densely populated area of California) and then trying to justify rubber stamping this plan on the rest of the state to reopen business and school quickly. Always research the researcher - he also lied about having his own public health director's approval - TV reports uploaded yesterday, and easily found by googling his name.

We are being quarantined - there is no way his data applies to a country opened back up. He also minimized "small death numbers", which are in the thousands, as being acceptable - several times.

But that's what happens when you get your news from a couple of Urgent Care doctors. They'll go 'viral' 'cause they're pandering to those that love conspiracy theories.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Flamme said:


> I would go 2 Finland.


I would go to Greenland!


----------



## Guest

elgars ghost said:


> I may have got this distorted in the mists of time but I thought the UK deaths total, although using only hospital figures, is inclusive of cases which occurred where the patient had Covid-19 but probably died (or was dying) of something else. I'm assuming rightly or wrongly that some countries are only counting deaths if the death itself was directly attributable to Covid-19 and not any other illness(es) that the patient may have had.


I've not read this yet - though I read something similar a while back.

https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/03/31/counting-deaths-involving-the-coronavirus-covid-19/



> The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) release daily updates on the GOV.UK website, reporting the number of deaths occurring in hospitals in the UK among patients who have tested positive for coronavirus. Although the main figure reported is for the whole UK, breakdowns by area are available. These are the most up-to-date data available on the trend in deaths involving COVID-19, being compiled from reports sent every day by local hospitals.
> 
> Figure 1 shows the differences between the ONS and GOV.UK data. For example on one day, 17 March, there were 69 COVID-19 deaths reported on GOV.UK, 29 deaths registered, 89 deaths that occurred based on those registered up to 20 March, and 120 deaths based on those registered up to 25 March.
> 
> The chart shows that ONS figures by registration date roughly follow the GOV.UK figures, with a short time-lag. This reflects the time between a death taking place and being officially registered. The GOV.UK figures for each day include deaths that had not yet been registered on that day.
> On the other hand, ONS figures by actual date of death (death occurrence) tend to be higher than the GOV.UK figures for the same day. This is because:
> 
> 
> We include all deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, even if only suspected: the GOV.UK figures are only those deaths where the patient had a positive test result
> We include deaths that happened anywhere in England and Wales, for example some might be in care homes: the GOV.UK figures are only those that happened in hospital.


----------



## Flamme

Sad Al said:


> Stay away, we're boring morons. TV is awful, I think micro-plastics are eating our brains and Serbian footballers are superior. It's pain pain pain. Have you read what Pentti Linkola thought about our preserving of nature? I called him a few weeks ago. He didn't answer, now he's dead. He thought that our preserving of nature is the worst in Europe.


No, no way...lol Living in country that has 2 much history and events I miss something boring and common lol


----------



## pianozach

erki said:


> I do not waste an hour of my life too lightly as well. But this time I did.
> The take I got is that you should start opening up as soon you are down to normal hospitalisation. If you never had beds filled then right away. Then you will get more hospitalisations but that is expected and normal and should not trigger lockdown(as long you can handle severe cases). Also it seems to be the case that in the end the death toll(%) will be very similar in every location. But maybe more in severely locked down places when death caused by this very lockdown is taken into count as well.
> So like in Spain, Italy NY we should proceed more carefully versus in Norway, Finland, Baltic we should open up rather fast.
> Also I totally agree that many of the restrictions do not make sense. Like if the effect of wearing the mask is miniscule then better not to use it; if closing borders have less effect than producing problems down the line then not use it etc.
> And they emphasise on the need of contacts of people in order to maintain healthy immune system.
> 
> The remedy to the problem should not do more harm than the problem itself!


Thank you for making sense.

I've been saying for quite awhile that we have lousy choices. We could choose quarantining, which tanks the economy more for every day we're shut down, OR we could OPEN UP, which would tank the economy because of all the dead people missing from it.

The trick is the timing, which the experts have been stressing since the very beginning when they mentioned "flattening the curve".

In order to flatten that curve, that is, to keep the severe cases down to a number that is manageable, we HAVE to have these "Stay-At-Home" orders. Once we've gotten to where our 'vintage' healthcare system won't be overwhelmed by life-threatening cases, we should have a tiered re-opening.

INSTEAD, we've had knee-jerk reactions that have been astonishingly divisive, just like our politics of the day.

We've had jerks in crowds with guns and confederate flags, 
armchair doctors recommending every solution under the sun,
Republicans suddenly objecting to having their bodies controlled,
Democrats pointing out the handling of the pandemic,
pundits and conspiracy theorists promoting theories of germ warfare, and pointing fingers at nations and groups all over the globe, and
a president hawking a malaria drug, suggesting putting "bright light" inside people through the skin or other methods, and injecting people with disinfectant for a good "cleaning" during his rallyish 'press conferences', where he regularly childishly insults all that disagree with him, and congratulates himself on being such a great President.

*Balance*. Of course we need to "open" the country back up; and we need to do that at the right time. The problem is that we're not simply talking about the beating the economy is taking, but people's lives. Well over 50,000 people in the US have died from COVID-19, mostly deaths in a horrible way: drowning from solidified fluid that fills up the bottom of the lungs, a grisly suffocation in excruciating agony.


----------



## Kieran

MacLeod said:


> I've not read this yet - though I read something similar a while back.
> 
> https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/03/31/counting-deaths-involving-the-coronavirus-covid-19/
> 
> _We include all deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, *even if only suspected*: the GOV.UK figures are only those deaths where the patient had a positive test result_


More confused figures will come from this. We already know that there are very few deaths caused *solely *by Covid, and that the vast majority of of people dying from Covid were equally vulnerable to flus or other ailments hammering down on an already compromised body, but counting people who were "suspected" to be positive tests for Covid, that's never going to give an accurate or useful number, surely? I've known people who were bedridden and gasping and certain they had Covid, but they failed the test...


----------



## Flamme

How I read the ''signs'' I think the Tectonic change is coming in our way of life...


----------



## Sad Al

pianozach said:


> Of course we need to "open" the country back up; and we need to do that at the right time. The problem is that we're not simply talking about the beating the economy is taking, but people's lives. Well over 50,000 people in the US have died from COVID-19, mostly deaths in a horrible way: drowning from solidified fluid that fills up the bottom of the lungs, a grisly suffocation in excruciating agony.


Isn't that wonderful. People have to buy ever more crap and that's why we need more advertising. Unfortunately, to save the economy, the survivors will be to few ---------- I can't stand this anymore AAARRRRGGGGHHHH !!!!!


----------



## Kieran

elgars ghost said:


> I may have got this distorted in the mists of time but I thought the UK deaths total, although using only hospital figures, is inclusive of cases which occurred where the patient had Covid-19 but probably died (or was dying) of something else. I'm assuming rightly or wrongly that some countries are only counting deaths if *the death itself was directly attributable to Covid-19* and not any other illness(es) that the patient may have had.


I'd say the number would be very low, in this case. From what I understand, even among the very elderly, they tend to have a pre-existing condition, or else they're just too old to fight off all the usual stuff that kills old people, and so Covid is only the _coup de grace_, but hardly the cause...


----------



## Flamme

Trump tweeted that diabetus significantly increases the chance of Death, I have personally heard about few cases that were just like that...


----------



## Guest

It's this that makes the accounting very difficult. The same problem arises with known illnesses like 'flu. Trying to compare one country with another is even more complicated as they use different methodologies. I presume that there are even different practices by doctors signing death certs between different states within a country, never mind between countries.

We're only ever going to get an approximation.


----------



## Sad Al

Flamme said:


> Trump tweeted that diabetus significantly increases the chance of Death, I have personally heard about few cases that were just like that...


Diabolus? That's what you mean


----------



## elgar's ghost

Kieran said:


> _I'd say the number would be very low, in this case. _ From what I understand, even among the very elderly, they tend to have a pre-existing condition, or else they're just too old to fight off all the usual stuff that kills old people, and so Covid is only the _coup de grace_, but hardly the cause...


Which makes me wonder if this is how Germany and other nations with a low deaths per cases ratio have gone about it.


----------



## pianozach

mmsbls said:


> It's hard enough to keep politics out of this thread. Please stop religious posts as well.





arpeggio said:


> Unfortunantly religion is a significant part of the Republican movement. This is the point that Charles Sykes and David Frum have stated in their books about the current Republican Party.


Yep.

It's a 'wholistic' thing.

Can't discuss the pandemic without discussing the handling of it.

Can't discuss the handling without bringing up how the handling was politicized.

Can't bring up politics without bringing up the motivations of political parties and the influences on them, such as religion.

Can't bring up religion without discussing hypocrisy, and those that cherry-pick or subvert the teachings of religion.

:wave:

As a former chiropractic doctor, I learned that medical specialists tend to treat conditions in which they specialize. A 'no-brainer', right? But it's a far better doctor that considers that patients are an interwoven collection of systems that affect each other. Chiropractors laughingly refer to pharmacology as _'toxicology'_: Practically every drug in the pharmacy has "side effects" - that is, while treating (or masking) ONE symptom or disease, it places stresses on one or more of the other systems in the body - it could be physical or psychological.

For instance, Broadway star *Nick Cordero* is now recovering from a leg amputation, a complication of his coronavirus infection that caused clotting in his right leg - doctors responded by administering anti-coagulants (blood thinners), which resulted in affecting his blood pressure and causing internal bleeding in his intestines, which was considered to be far more life-threatening than the loss of his leg, so they took him off the blood thinners. So they had to amputate his leg AND install a temporary pacemaker to compensate for his irregular heartbeat.

I bring this up not only as a metaphor for the necessity of understanding how this *pandemic* also involves *economics, politics*, and *religion*, but also as a literal warning of the many complications of infection from this SARS-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19.

This is all new to us, and this pandemic necessitates discussion of ALL of these, as well as pathogens, sociology, psychology, technology, homelessness, ignorance.

We're LIVING it. We're all witness to the economic, political, social, and psychological impacts of a pandemic, from fear, to denial, anger, despair, unemployment. We've talked about PREPAREDNESS, and how we had systems in place to mitigate the effects of any coming pandemic, systems that were dismantled, ignored, gutted, defunded, derided, and rendered incapable of getting the job done.

Once a pandemic has started, a coordinated response should be implemented focusing on maintenance of situational awareness, public health messaging, reduction of transmission, and care for and treatment of the ill. Our country managed to fail us in ALL of these things.

When discussing this pandemic, we have to discuss it all. Politics, economics, religion, ignorance, homelessness, health care, economic inequality . . . ALL of it is interrelated.


----------



## Sad Al

Too many humans. Too little booze. Life is short. Connect the dots.


----------



## Sad Al

pianozach said:


> As a former chiropractic doctor,


Indeed, as a former chiropractic doctor. LOL


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Yep.
> 
> It's a 'wholistic' thing.
> 
> Can't discuss the pandemic without discussing the handling of it.
> 
> Can't discuss the handling without bringing up how the handling was politicized.
> 
> Can't bring up politics without bringing up the motivations of political parties and the influences on them, such as religion.
> 
> Can't bring up religion without discussing hypocrisy, and those that cherry-pick or subvert the teachings of religion.
> 
> :wave:
> 
> As a former chiropractic doctor, I learned that medical specialists tend to treat conditions in which they specialize. A 'no-brainer', right? But it's a far better doctor that considers that patients are an interwoven collection of systems that affect each other. Chiropractors laughingly refer to pharmacology as _'toxicology'_: Practically every drug in the pharmacy has "side effects" - that is, while treating (or masking) ONE symptom or disease, it places stresses on one or more of the other systems in the body - it could be physical or psychological.
> 
> For instance, Broadway star *Nick Cordero* is now recovering from a leg amputation, a complication of his coronavirus infection that caused clotting in his right leg - doctors responded by administering anti-coagulants (blood thinners), which resulted in affecting his blood pressure and causing internal bleeding in his intestines, which was considered to be far more life-threatening than the loss of his leg, so they took him off the blood thinners. So they had to amputate his leg AND install a temporary pacemaker to compensate for his irregular heartbeat.
> 
> I bring this up not only as a metaphor for the necessity of understanding how this *pandemic* also involves *economics, politics*, and *religion*, but also as a literal warning of the many complications of infection from this SARS-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19.
> 
> This is all new to us, and this pandemic necessitates discussion of ALL of these, as well as pathogens, sociology, psychology, technology, homelessness, ignorance.
> 
> We're LIVING it. We're all witness to the economic, political, social, and psychological impacts of a pandemic, from fear, to denial, anger, despair, unemployment. We've talked about PREPAREDNESS, and how we had systems in place to mitigate the effects of any coming pandemic, systems that were dismantled, ignored, gutted, defunded, derided, and rendered incapable of getting the job done.
> 
> Once a pandemic has started, a coordinated response should be implemented focusing on maintenance of situational awareness, public health messaging, reduction of transmission, and care for and treatment of the ill. Our country managed to fail us in ALL of these things.
> 
> When discussing this pandemic, we have to discuss it all. Politics, economics, religion, ignorance, homelessness, health care, economic inequality . . . ALL of it is interrelated.


"Please, please, please let me make fun of religious people in this thread!!!!!"


----------



## pianozach

Kieran said:


> I'd say the number would be very low, in this case. From what I understand, even among the very elderly, they tend to have a pre-existing condition, or else they're just too old to fight off all the usual stuff that kills old people, and so Covid is only the _coup de grace_, but hardly the cause...


There's a lot more people that have PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS than most of us realize.

Once people start aging, their chances of developing a 'condition' rises. But you don't have to be elderly to have one.

Currently there are well over 50 million Americans UNDER 65 YEARS have "pre-existing" conditions, probably closer to 54 million. According to the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services *as "many as 82 million Americans with employer-based coverage have a pre-existing condition, ranging from life-threatening illnesses like cancer to chronic conditions like diabetes, asthma, or heart disease."
*

So . . . Between 50 and 129 million non-elderly Americans have at least one pre-existing condition. This represents 19 to 50 percent of non-elderly Americans. Up to 86% of Older Americans Have a Pre-Existing Condition.

So, I don't have exact numbers, because various sources have their own ways of tallying up the numbers.

But it's safe to say that 1/3 to 1/2 of all Americans are in a 'HIGH RISK' category when it comes to complications from COVID-19.

_On a side note, the American 'south', which tend to be Republican strongholds, have a higher percentage of pre-existing conditions than the rest of the nation. Southern states also tend to have higher rates of poverty and poor education ratings. 
_


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> "Please, please, please let me make fun of religious people in this thread!!!!!"


Typical.

Got it. You'd rather hurl insults than have a reasonable discussion.

Your dismissive remark is noted, as well as your seeming inability to grasp the concepts I've presented without resorting to knee-jerk doggerel.

You realize that you're actually proving my points with these sorts of comments?


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> "Please, please, please let me make fun of religious people in this thread!!!!!"


Beware, lest you be visited by a Rosicrucian punishment squad!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> _On a side note, the American 'south', which tend to be Republican strongholds, have a higher percentage of pre-existing conditions than the rest of the nation. Southern states also tend to have higher rates of poverty and poor education ratings.
> _


Why the scare quotes around South?
Yes, many of them are Republican strongholds, but not so much anymore. They also have large African American populations, which are disproportionately hit with diabetes in those areas. And they aren't staunch Republicans.

But they also are not the areas hit the hardest with this virus. That belongs to New York/New Jersey - Northern states that are Democratic strongholds.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> Beware, lest you be visited by a Rosicrucian punishment squad!


I say bring 'em on!!!


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> "Please, please, please let me make fun of religious people in this thread!!!!!"


we have nothing against reasonable religious people, but some forms of Christianity in the US seem pretty weird to me. My grandparents were practicing catholics and the Christians here try to practice the 7 cardinal virtues. And the evangelicals are barely recognizable to me as Christians. I know that some fringe sects that were prosecuted in Europe fled to the US, especially various puritans, and the US Christians evolved out of them. Hence the various mormons and evangelicals and other sects we do not have here. And they seem to me really hypocritical


----------



## Kieran

pianozach said:


> There's a lot more people that have PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS than most of us realize.
> 
> Once people start aging, their chances of developing a 'condition' rises. But you don't have to be elderly to have one.
> 
> Currently there are well over 50 million Americans UNDER 65 YEARS have "pre-existing" conditions, probably closer to 54 million. According to the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services *as "many as 82 million Americans with employer-based coverage have a pre-existing condition, ranging from life-threatening illnesses like cancer to chronic conditions like diabetes, asthma, or heart disease."
> *
> 
> So . . . Between 50 and 129 million non-elderly Americans have at least one pre-existing condition. This represents 19 to 50 percent of non-elderly Americans. Up to 86% of Older Americans Have a Pre-Existing Condition.
> 
> So, I don't have exact numbers, because various sources have their own ways of tallying up the numbers.
> 
> But it's safe to say that 1/3 to 1/2 of all Americans are in a 'HIGH RISK' category when it comes to complications from COVID-19.
> 
> _On a side note, the American 'south', which tend to be Republican strongholds, have a higher percentage of pre-existing conditions than the rest of the nation. Southern states also tend to have higher rates of poverty and poor education ratings.
> _


In fairness - and I don't dispute this - but I'm from Ireland, and although I don't only look at stats from Ireland, I also don;t think stats from America reflect the rest of the world...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> we have nothing against reasonable religious people, but some forms of Christianity in the US seem pretty weird to me. My grandparents were practicing catholics and the Christians here try to practice the 7 cardinal virtues. And the evangelicals are barely recognizable to me as Christians. I know that some fringe sects that were prosecuted in Europe fled to the US, especially various puritans, and the US Christians evolved out of them. Hence the various mormons and evangelicals and other sects we do not have here. And they seem to me really hypocritical


Well as long as we don't generalize about what we don't know that well . . . .


----------



## Open Book

Christabel said:


> Some facts about Covid-19 which justify the concerns from people about shutting down the world economy:


This turned me off within the first few minutes. There is an agenda here. The doctor is giving stats that compare the actual number of deaths to the total population. That statistic always sounds benign because only a minority of the population have been infected thus far. Even if it's a surprising 25% infected in some places, that's still a minority. If we continue social distancing, we can keep it that way.

*It's not where we are now, it's where we're going, how we're trending.* Are we increasing or decreasing or flat. If we're not increasing, that is *solely* due to the restrictions that have been put in place. To stop these restrictions prematurely would mean a return to the virus spreading and cases increasing again.

Also:

What if there is no immunity and no vaccine?

What if the virus mutates and turns into something even worse?


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> More confused figures will come from this. We already know that there are very few deaths caused *solely *by Covid, and that the vast majority of of people dying from Covid were equally vulnerable to flus or other ailments hammering down on an already compromised body..


'very few deaths'? Of course we know that the majority of deaths have occurred in older people, particularly those with co-morbid conditions, but one of the frightening things has been the significant number of deaths under 50 where there were no co-morbidities.


----------



## DaveM

pianozach said:


> Yep.
> 
> It's a 'wholistic' thing.
> 
> Can't discuss the pandemic without discussing the handling of it.
> 
> Can't discuss the handling without bringing up how the handling was politicized.
> 
> Can't bring up politics without bringing up the motivations of political parties and the influences on them, such as religion.
> 
> Can't bring up religion without discussing hypocrisy, and those that cherry-pick or subvert the teachings of religion.
> 
> :wave:
> 
> As a former chiropractic doctor, I learned that medical specialists tend to treat conditions in which they specialize. A 'no-brainer', right? But it's a far better doctor that considers that patients are an interwoven collection of systems that affect each other. Chiropractors laughingly refer to pharmacology as _'toxicology'_: Practically every drug in the pharmacy has "side effects" - that is, while treating (or masking) ONE symptom or disease, it places stresses on one or more of the other systems in the body - it could be physical or psychological.
> 
> For instance, Broadway star *Nick Cordero* is now recovering from a leg amputation, a complication of his coronavirus infection that caused clotting in his right leg - doctors responded by administering anti-coagulants (blood thinners), which resulted in affecting his blood pressure and causing internal bleeding in his intestines, which was considered to be far more life-threatening than the loss of his leg, so they took him off the blood thinners. So they had to amputate his leg AND install a temporary pacemaker to compensate for his irregular heartbeat...


Virtually every MD doctor is trained to consider _'that patients are an interwoven collection of systems that affect each other.'_

The internal intestinal bleeding was an unfortunate complication, but the important question is: was it reasonable to use the 'blood thinner' heparin to stop the clotting in the big vessels of his leg to help prevent the loss of a leg in a 36 year old? And the answer is very much 'yes'. Messing with coagulation in the body is impossible without the chance of complications. It's just a fact.

Also, you make it sound like the irregular heartbeat and need for a pacemaker was secondary to the use of 'blood thinners'. It wasn't.


----------



## DaveM

The ‘new’ drug showing potentially exciting possibilities in treating Clovid-19 is the old drug, H2-blocker antacid famotidine, aka Pepcid. This has been going on for the last few weeks when it was found that the Chinese elderly with Clovid-19 taking famotidine for heartburn were, anecdotally, getting better sooner and dying less often. An American researcher has been looking at a possible affect on a protease that the virus needs to replicate. Now a U.S. lab has evaluated 2500 drugs that might affect this protease and famotidine came out near the top of the list.

While the interest in the drug started with observations of people taking it orally, a study is in progress using relatively high IV doses. I don’t know how high the doses are, but orally in typical doses for heartburn, it is a drug with a relatively low side-effect profile.

The media may have been holding off talking about this until the last day or two to help prevent a run on the drug. If anybody here is taking famotidine for heartburn, you might want to visit your local drugstore (it’s OTC). IMO, famotidine will be off the shelves, perhaps indefinitely, in the next 24-48 hours.


----------



## mmsbls

pianozach said:


> Yep.
> 
> It's a 'wholistic' thing.
> 
> Can't discuss the pandemic without discussing the handling of it.
> 
> Can't discuss the handling without bringing up how the handling was politicized.
> 
> Can't bring up politics without bringing up the motivations of political parties and the influences on them, such as religion.
> 
> Can't bring up religion without discussing hypocrisy, and those that cherry-pick or subvert the teachings of religion.
> 
> :wave:
> 
> As a former chiropractic doctor, I learned that medical specialists tend to treat conditions in which they specialize. A 'no-brainer', right? But it's a far better doctor that considers that patients are an interwoven collection of systems that affect each other. Chiropractors laughingly refer to pharmacology as _'toxicology'_: Practically every drug in the pharmacy has "side effects" - that is, while treating (or masking) ONE symptom or disease, it places stresses on one or more of the other systems in the body - it could be physical or psychological.
> 
> For instance, Broadway star *Nick Cordero* is now recovering from a leg amputation, a complication of his coronavirus infection that caused clotting in his right leg - doctors responded by administering anti-coagulants (blood thinners), which resulted in affecting his blood pressure and causing internal bleeding in his intestines, which was considered to be far more life-threatening than the loss of his leg, so they took him off the blood thinners. So they had to amputate his leg AND install a temporary pacemaker to compensate for his irregular heartbeat.
> 
> I bring this up not only as a metaphor for the necessity of understanding how this *pandemic* also involves *economics, politics*, and *religion*, but also as a literal warning of the many complications of infection from this SARS-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19.
> 
> This is all new to us, and this pandemic necessitates discussion of ALL of these, as well as pathogens, sociology, psychology, technology, homelessness, ignorance.
> 
> We're LIVING it. We're all witness to the economic, political, social, and psychological impacts of a pandemic, from fear, to denial, anger, despair, unemployment. We've talked about PREPAREDNESS, and how we had systems in place to mitigate the effects of any coming pandemic, systems that were dismantled, ignored, gutted, defunded, derided, and rendered incapable of getting the job done.
> 
> Once a pandemic has started, a coordinated response should be implemented focusing on maintenance of situational awareness, public health messaging, reduction of transmission, and care for and treatment of the ill. Our country managed to fail us in ALL of these things.
> 
> *When discussing this pandemic, we have to discuss it all. Politics, economics, religion, ignorance, homelessness, health care, economic inequality . . . ALL of it is interrelated.*


Well, you may wish to discuss all of those aspects, but you won't be able to include much politics or religion on the main TC forum. You are welcome to discuss all those issues in the Groups. There's an enormous amount of fascinating, relevant, critical information to discuss about Covid without ever mentioning politics or religion. So certainly discuss all those aspects with friends, colleagues, family, on other forums, or in the TC groups, but in this thread, please refrain from pure politics or religion.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Virtually every MD doctor is trained to consider _'that patients are an interwoven collection of systems that affect each other.'_
> 
> The internal intestinal bleeding was an unfortunate complication, but the important question is: was the use of 'blood thinner' heparin to stop the clotting in the big vessels of his leg to help prevent the loss of a leg in a 36 year old? And the answer is very much 'yes'. Messing with coagulation in the body is impossible without the chance of complications. It's just a fact.
> 
> Also, you make it sound like the irregular heartbeat and need for a pacemaker was secondary to the use of 'blood thinners'. It wasn't.


Important point you make. Most people, and all reputable doctors, understand that every single medication represents a trade-off. Obviously the ideal situation is no medication. But sometimes they are necessary. As a diabetic, I am dependent on insulin, delivered by pump. The insulin helps control my blood sugar levels - but there is a trade-off. Increased insulin can also lead to weight gain, as that is something else that insulin regulates. So it makes it that much harder to lose weight. But I still need the insulin. Out of control blood sugar is a much more immediate and definite threat - so I opt to take insulin. And I get plenty of well-meaning souls approaching me to tell me about some homeopathic method that their cousin's roommate used to cure their diabetes - you know, so I'm no longer being manipulated by the evil drug companies that just push any unnecessary drug so they can line their wallets.


----------



## mmsbls

I've seen several people mention that the cure ought not be worse than the illness. Is there anyone who doesn't believe that? Anyone, anywhere?

What's interesting is that those who post that view also post about how awful the cure is but never seem to spend any time examining how bad the illness could be. How would anyone know if a given potential cure is worse than the illness without understanding the total effects of the illness? 

Incidentally, how do people here compare economic effects with health effects? How bad is someone losing their job in March 2020 or the US GDP losing 10% for 3 months compared to a 67 year-old dying or 1,000,000 people dying? How do you compare those outcomes? Without a way to do those comparisons, there's no way to know if a potential cure is worse than the illness.


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> 'very few deaths'? Of course we know that the majority of deaths have occurred in older people, particularly those with co-morbid conditions, but one of the frightening things has been the significant number of deaths under 50 where there were no co-morbidities.


I think statistically it's rare though, isn't it? And I wonder if there were still undetected conditions, or compromised immunity somehow? Perhaps there weren't, but they seem more like the anomaly, than the norm. Statistically, if you're a regular healthy person under 50, and you catch this wretched virus, you might be in for a torrid spell in your bed, but you should make it through...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> I've seen several people mention that the cure ought not be worse than the illness. Is there anyone who doesn't believe that? Anyone, anywhere?
> 
> What's interesting is that those who post that view also post about how awful the cure is but never seem to spend any time examining how bad the illness could be. How would anyone know if a given potential cure is worse than the illness without understanding the total effects of the illness?
> 
> Incidentally, how do people here compare economic effects with health effects? How bad is someone losing their job in March 2020 or the US GDP losing 10% for 3 months compared to a 67 year-old dying or 1,000,000 people dying? How do you compare those outcomes? Without a way to do those comparisons, there's no way to know if a potential cure is worse than the illness.


Across the entire spectrum? You are right. That is very difficult to gauge. But it makes little to no sense that somebody in Montana loses their job because of measures that likely are irrelevant to them. And not even just one state compared to another - within states. There is no logical reason why upstate New York needs the same restrictions as does NYC. Yes - in large urban areas, we may still need to shut down for a while. But less populated regions? Where there is no dense population constantly in close contact with one another? Why are we still treating the entire country as if it is homogeneous?


----------



## Guest

Kieran said:


> I think statistically it's rare though, isn't it? And I wonder if there were still undetected conditions, or compromised immunity somehow? Perhaps there weren't, but they seem more like the anomaly, than the norm. Statistically, if you're a regular healthy person under 50, and you catch this wretched virus, you might be in for a torrid spell in your bed, but you should make it through...


Kieran, you made several posts now about the statistics. I sense a broader point, but I'm not sure what it is. Would you elaborate where you are heading with your observations about the data?


----------



## KenOC

I just ran some figures to see if the level of fear around my area seems justified. I live in a county with a population of just over three million. We had our first case around the beginning of March, two months ago, and the numbers seem to be winding down a bit now.

One out of every 1,500 people in the county (0.0669% of the population) has been diagnosed with Covid-19.

Of these, one in 81,000 (0.0012%) has died from it.

One in 20,000 (0.0049%) is currently hospitalized with the virus.

Of these, one in 51,000 (.0019%) is in the ICU.

I’d guess these numbers would be drowned in statistical noise if special attention weren’t being directed at this disease. Of course, it’s very hard to tell what the numbers would be if it weren’t for that attention!

BTW, re the previous post: In my county people 65 and older represent 21% of Covid-19 cases and 59% of deaths. If you're an oldster, those odds don't look very attractive.


----------



## Kieran

MacLeod said:


> Kieran, you made several posts now about the statistics. I sense a broader point, but I'm not sure what it is. Would you elaborate where you are heading with your observations about the data?


No broad point at all, just replying to certain posts which fascinate me. I think one of them was to do with population density, and the difference between the UK and Ireland, which needs to be considered if we're to compare the neighbouring islands. But also, population density has to be considered everywhere.

Others like the one above, it's self evident what it says.

By the way, I don't spend hours poring over stats. I just notice them here and there, like we all do...


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> I think statistically it's rare though, isn't it? And I wonder if there were still undetected conditions, or compromised immunity somehow? Perhaps there weren't, but they seem more like the anomaly, than the norm. Statistically, if you're a regular healthy person under 50, and you catch this wretched virus, you might be in for a torrid spell in your bed, but you should make it through...


An evaluation of statistics coming out of China and the U.S. indicates that '_The new data show that up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit._

Perhaps different people have a different view of what 'rare' means. 20% of these infected younger people having to be hospitalized doesn't seem rare or an 'anomaly' to me.



Kieran said:


> By the way, I don't spend hours poring over stats. I just notice them here and there, like we all do...


I think it's important to read stats carefully before making statements of certainty, but that's just me.


----------



## erki

Open Book said:


> Also:
> 
> What if there is no immunity and no vaccine?
> 
> What if the virus mutates and turns into something even worse?


Excellent point! Are we going to shelter in place for generations to come? Just because there is a virus somewhere out there.
BTW viruses tend to mutate towards less dangerous for the host - more hosts die from bad strain so they would infect less and less possible new hosts until this strain dies out.


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Across the entire spectrum? You are right. That is very difficult to gauge. But it makes little to no sense that somebody in Montana loses their job because of measures that likely are irrelevant to them. And not even just one state compared to another - within states. There is no logical reason why upstate New York needs the same restrictions as does NYC. Yes - in large urban areas, we may still need to shut down for a while. But less populated regions? Where there is no dense population constantly in close contact with one another? Why are we still treating the entire country as if it is homogeneous?


I have no problem with evaluating differing regions separately if it's possible to do well without sending conflicting messages that humans can't follow properly. I don't now how easily one can create a strategy for Montana that treats rural Montana and Billings in a manner that's appropriately safe for all. It's likely simpler to get everyone to shelter in place until new cases fall below some clear guideline.

Incidentally, it's possible that the guidelines for opening up already include regions that have no cases, but I assume that anyone traveling to an area with many cases would then have to follow that other area's restrictions.

Incidentally, I wasn't aware that our country was being treated homogeneously. I thought there were distinct differences in governor's restrictions.


----------



## KenOC

mmsbls said:


> ...Incidentally, I wasn't aware that our country was being treated homogeneously. I thought there were distinct differences in governor's restrictions.


Restrictions are variable even within states. Around here some cities have closed their beaches and parks, some have not. Some, like Huntington Beach, have closed parking lots to limit access to the beaches but otherwise are simply monitoring distancing practices there, and admonishing as necessary. All state beaches, though, are closed I think.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Why the scare quotes around South?
> Yes, many of them are Republican strongholds, but not so much anymore. They also have large African American populations, which are disproportionately hit with diabetes in those areas. And they aren't staunch Republicans.
> 
> But they also are not the areas hit the hardest with this virus. That belongs to New York/New Jersey - Northern states that are Democratic strongholds.


Wynton Marsalis recently lost his father to Covid-19; he lived in New Orleans. I gather the statistics are quite high in that area, so there's a nexus between poverty and susceptibility. That wouldn't be rocket science. Not saying this was the case with the Marsalis family, however.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Christabel said:


> Wynton Marsalis recently lost his father to Covid-19; he lived in New Orleans. I gather the statistics are quite high in that area, so there's a nexus between poverty and susceptibility. That wouldn't be rocket science. Not saying this was the case with the Marsalis family, however.


Actually, New Orleans early on looked like it might be the next New York City, but that ended up not happening.


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## Guest

Thank heavens for that!!


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## Guest

I am absolutely horrified by this image, which has just come to hand. We've dealt with loads of coffins on our news and that's dreadful enough; now this!! A defining image (among half a dozen others) of my lifetime, I have to say. Economic progressives like myself take this stuff extremely seriously. On display here is a virtual graveyard reminiscent of post WW2. This would be one of many many similar situations. Sorry, but countries have gone to war for less than this in the past. You just cannot shut down the world economy to save the lives of the over 70 cohort. Replace one catastrophe with another one far worse. And now Airbus says it is bleeding money. *This represents BILLIONS of dollars of other peoples' money here*: I can't contain my anger and distress about it. We are talking about vast numbers of people's lives and even bigger numbers of US dollars.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets...f-a380-fleet-to-desert-storage/138084.article

If you don't think there will be consequences for China over this I'd urge you to think again.


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## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Actually, New Orleans early on looked like it might be the next New York City, but that ended up not happening.


Have you seen data from the state of New York lately, the majority of whose cases are in New York City?

They have flattened their curves for new cases and for number of deaths per day. They sure look better than my state's curves.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> Have you seen data from the state of New York lately, the majority of whose cases are in New York City?
> 
> They have flattened their curves for new cases and for number of deaths per day. They sure look better than my state's curves.
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html


I don't know what your state is.


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## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I don't know what your state is.


My state is one whose curve looks awful. Every time you think it's going flat there is a huge spike the next day. Then it tries to flatten at that higher level, then there's another huge spike, and so on...it hasn't settled down yet.


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## KenOC

Open Book said:


> My state is one whose curve looks awful. Every time you think it's going flat there is a huge spike the next day. Then it tries to flatten at that higher level, then there's another huge spike, and so on...it hasn't settled down yet.


Your state must be Spikesylvania. Or maybe Spike Dakota.


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## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Your state must be Spikesylvania. Or maybe Spike Dakota.


Spikachusetts.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/massachusetts-coronavirus-cases.html


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## DaveM

Christabel said:


> You just cannot shut down the world economy to save the lives of the over 70 cohort.


You haven't been paying attention. Thousands of people under 70 have been killed and several more thousand will be.


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## KenOC

DaveM said:


> You haven't been paying attention. Thousands of people under 70 have been killed and several more thousand will be.


I checked my county's stats earlier today. Somebody 65 or older diagnosed with Covid-19 is about 5.4 times as likely to die from it as somebody under 65, on average. So far there have been no deaths under 25 years old.


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## Guest

Christabel said:


> You just cannot shut down the world economy to save the lives of the over 70 cohort.


Well, setting aside the gross exaggeration here...why not?


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> I checked my county's stats earlier today. Somebody 65 or older diagnosed with Covid-19 is about 5.4 times as likely to die from it as somebody under 65, on average. So far there have been no deaths under 25 years old.


The CDC separates estimated pure Covid-19 deaths from pneumonia deaths. As of April 27 there were approximately 18,000 pure Covid-19 deaths in those 70 and over and 9000 deaths under 70.


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## Guest

KenOC said:


> I checked my county's stats earlier today. Somebody 65 or older diagnosed with Covid-19 is about 5.4 times as likely to die from it as somebody under 65, on average. So far there have been no deaths under 25 years old.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Over 20% of deaths in NYC are in the 45-64 age bracket (as at April 16).

This tells us nothing about what is going on globally of course, (if we're fretting about the global economy) and despite the best efforts of statisticians, I don't think there will be anything clear about the various data we need to understand until after the pandemic.

Try here for detailed graphs and explanations:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus


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## mmsbls

This paper looks at economic and health impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during and after the 1918 flu pandemic in the US. NPIs would include social distancing. Basically, they compared the timing and aggressiveness of NPIs in a range of cities during the flu pandemic and looked at mortality and economic growth over the period from 1919-1923.

From the abstract:



> We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after
> the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they may also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> The CDC separates estimated pure Covid-19 deaths from pneumonia deaths. As of April 27 there were approximately 18,000 pure Covid-19 deaths in those 70 and over and 9000 deaths under 70.


Not sure what that means. Many or most older-age Covid-19 deaths are caused by pneumonia, of a particularly nasty type. Thus the need for intubation. I have also read that fewer than 50% of intubed patients survive.


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## Guest

I don't doubt that some businesses will not be able to restart; some employees will have lost their jobs; money will have been lost too.

But if there's one thing we can be sure about, it's that capitalism is a tenacious creature and it will certainly return to business, if not business-as-usual.

As for who's counting what as a Covid-19 death, I wonder if this manual is still current?
*
Medical certification of cause of death : instructions for physicians on use of international form of medical certificate of cause of death, 4th ed*

https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/40557

It is, of course, only recommended, not required.

If you want to know something more about how death certs are to be completed in the UK - and realise that the process is simply too complex for our tabloid media...

https://assets.publishing.service.g...l-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf


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## Jacck

I have filled the death certificate a couple of times myself. Many times, you do not know the exact cause of death. For example, you have a terminal cancer patient, who catches pneumonia and then dies. What is the cause of death? Is it the cancer, is it the pneumonia, or is it that his heart failed and stopped beating? In practice, you use common sense and list the most probable cause of death, but all of those other conditions (comorbidies) are listed too for the purpose of statistics. If necessary, you can order an autopsy (in some cases, it is mandatory)


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## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Not sure what that means. Many or most older-age Covid-19 deaths are caused by pneumonia, of a particularly nasty type. Thus the need for intubation. I have also read that fewer than 50% of intubed patients survive.


I'm not sure why the CDC separates the numbers. You're right about the pneumonia. The total pneumonia deaths as of April 27 are about 57,000. About 39,000 of those are 70 or older; about 18,000 under 70.


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## Guest

MacLeod said:


> Well, setting aside the gross exaggeration here...why not?


It's not an exaggeration but if that makes you feel OK about the economic outcomes..... the vast vast majority of those affected are elderly.

"Why not"? Spoken like a true wage and salary dependent person. Not a scintilla of empathy for economies on their knees, corporate losses, unemployment in the millions - and zillions owed to banks. Think there won't be any consequences for you? Think again. Or just think. Period.


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## Guest

Christabel said:


> It's not an exaggeration but if that makes you feel OK about the economic outcomes..... the vast vast majority of those affected are elderly.
> 
> "Why not"? Spoken like a true wage and salary dependent person. Not a scintilla of empathy for economies on their knees.


No, it's a serious question. Are you saying that it is right to write-off the lives of the over 70s (globally?) to save the global economy?


----------



## Guest

MacLeod said:


> No, it's a serious question. Are you saying that it is right to write-off the over 70s (globally?) to save the economy?


Apart from the exaggeration, don't you think many of them were nearing the end of life anyway - with significant co-morbidities. Our PM is trying to protect people in nursing home care, for god's sake. The price is too high to pay. And, anyway, I don't put my own preservation ahead of the needs of the society and the importance of international capitalism anyway. When the gig's up, it's up. But it isn't easy trying to put capitalism on a ventilator. But you must wait and see what I'm talking about because of a lack of sociological imagination.


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## erki

I think we put too much thought into the question who's deaths will be acceptable. I don't believe it is for us to decide and it may not be important question at all. People are dying of various causes - natural and unnatural - all the time. And when we discuss this to the point we will no do anything because there is no criteria to make this decision.
Instead we should promote better ways to conduct our lives in the future. Like it seems that person with preexisting condition have higher risk of get complications - so to put simplistically - live healthier. However this would mean making lots of changes not only what we eat and how much we exercise but also how much we consume and how much we pollute. Maybe it would be good to put the data of deaths caused by polluted air side by side with deaths caused by this virus again(it is done already and the toll for pollution came up higher). Many will scream "bloody murder" but the comparison with driving cars is pretty good: many people die or suffer from car accidents but we do not stop driving. Like many will die or suffer from illnesses but we will not stop living.
Obviously it is not so simple but the logic is there, isn't it.


----------



## Guest

Christabel said:


> Apart from the exaggeration, don't you think many of them were nearing the end of life anyway - with significant co-morbidities. Our PM is trying to protect people in nursing home care, for god's sake. The price is too high to pay. And, anyway, I don't put my own preservation ahead of the needs of the society and the importance of international capitalism anyway. When the gig's up, it's up. But it isn't easy trying to put capitalism on a ventilator. But you must wait and see what I'm talking about because of a lack of sociological imagination.


So, you still don't answer my question simply: are you saying that it's OK to write off the lives of the over 70s?

The UN data published here shows that worldwide, there are more over 64s than under 5s - for the first time ever. Press play on the graph to see the progress since 1950 and the predictions up to 2100

https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure#the-world-population-is-changing-for-the-first-time-there-are-more-people-over-64-than-children-younger-than-5That's quite a lot of potential global deaths you're contemplating.


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## Guest

erki said:


> *I think we put too much thought into the question who's deaths will be acceptable.*


I think some people don't put any thought into it at all. They appear to believe that there is an acceptable trade-off, based, perhaps, on an incorrect assumption that the over 70s are not only not economically productive, but also all at death's door anyway.


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## tortkis

mmsbls said:


> This paper looks at economic and health impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during and after the 1918 flu pandemic in the US. NPIs would include social distancing. Basically, they compared the timing and aggressiveness of NPIs in a range of cities during the flu pandemic and looked at mortality and economic growth over the period from 1919-1923.


The plot below compares the deaths per 100K people of St. Louis and Philadelphia in 1918. St. Louis enacted the social distancing order quickly - 2 days after the first case of the flu, while Philadelphia waited for 16 days. The mortality of the former was much smaller than the latter, and that paper (I just skimmed graphs) shows that the economy (change in employment, 1914-1919) of St. Louis was no worse than that of Philadelphia.


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Apart from the exaggeration, don't you think many of them were nearing the end of life anyway - with significant co-morbidities. Our PM is trying to protect people in nursing home care, for god's sake. The price is too high to pay. And, anyway, I don't put my own preservation ahead of the needs of the society and the importance of international capitalism anyway. When the gig's up, it's up. But it isn't easy trying to put capitalism on a ventilator. But you must wait and see what I'm talking about because of a lack of sociological imagination.


Forget the people over 70 including those in nursing homes for the moment. What do you think is going to happen if everyone under 65-70 goes back to work prematurely? Are you willing to gamble that only a few (whatever that may be) will die in the name of the economy? What if the virus runs through company offices and people back in restaurants?

Perhaps not an exact comparison, but countries have gone to war at the expense of their economies and have eventually survived, democracy and economy eventually intact.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> Forget the people over 70 including those in nursing homes for the moment. What do you think is going to happen if everyone under 65-70 goes back to work prematurely? Are you willing to gamble that only a few (whatever that may be) will die in the name of the economy? What if the virus runs through company offices and people back in restaurants?
> 
> Perhaps not an exact comparison, but countries have gone to war at the expense of their economies and have eventually survived, democracy and economy eventually intact.


Ok, so you haven't heard about WW1 and 60 million deaths from Spanish Flu - which started on the battlefields of Europe. Followed shortly thereafter by a millennial Depression and attendant misery. Your questions and comments can only arise from a society which thinks it can control every depredation and shock. That somebody or other - 'nanny' - will fix it. Life is tough; it is full of 'known knowns' and if leaders hadn't taken their eyes of the ball in the first place - becoming obsessed with climate change and nothing else - this wouldn't have become such a problem.

Listen to this if you dare: an internationally recognized academic, applied economic historian Niall Ferguson - author of several books:

https://johnanderson.net.au/podcasts/direct-with-niall-ferguson/


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## Sad Al

A theory. The 2008 film, sudden death of its 'Why so serious?' Joker, the new Joker film, Joaquin Phoenix playing the Joker, the new virus that came out of bats. Batman vs. Joker.
How serious is it? Just connect the dots Sherlock. Rise of the Phoenix. Death of River Phoenix. One river too many in Eden. Harry Potter. The seven chakras. The seven dwarfs. Kieran's fake giggler avatar.


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## Kieran

Personally, I wouldn’t like the idea of “writing off” the over 70s, they’re our people too, and this is what it means to be a community - we look out for each other.

But the over 70s are still the group most affected, and in a staggered release, they’d unfortunately have to be the last outdoors. The young should be first, this should be healthy people in their fifties and younger. But as is often mentioned here, we’d need to get it right, and of course apply a release differently depending on the density of the population. My local pub in rural Wicklow would have social distancing as a default setting on a Saturday night before Christmas. There just aren’t the numbers for people to disturb each other. But in Dublin, it’s more heavily populated.

I have great sympathy for the elderly during this. A pal told me her grandmother keeps crying. She’s in her 80s and lives alone, is crushingly lonely, and afraid. My own dad died in a nursing home. Often we’d get texts saying not to visit, because of this bug or the other. Old people die routinely in nursing homes, but it defines us as a civilised society that we still care for them to the end...


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## DaveM

Christabel said:


> Ok, so you haven't heard about WW1 and 60 million deaths from Spanish Flu - which started on the battlefields of Europe. Followed shortly thereafter by a millennial Depression and attendant misery. Your questions and comments can only arise from a society which thinks it can control every depredation and shock. That somebody or other - 'nanny' - will fix it. Life is tough; it is full of 'known knowns' and if leaders hadn't taken their eyes of the ball in the first place - becoming obsessed with climate change and nothing else - this wouldn't have become such a problem.


You avoided answering my questions presumably because you have to ignore them to stick with the 'the economy takes precedence' hardline. In other words, if they die, they die.


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## erki

I think there is something wrong with the obsession with death specially in christian culture. If we would accept death as natural part of the life and would not scare people with the possibility of dying all the time we could make better decisions about life.


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## Kieran

erki said:


> I think there is something wrong with the obsession with death specially in christian culture. If we would accept death as natural part of the life and would not scare people with the possibility of dying all the time we could make better decisions about life.


I agree with this to an extent, because the most devout Catholics I know aren't scared of death at all, they find great comfort in it, and it informs their spirituality and their daily life very positively. But I think in the west as a whole, maybe, we're not so comfortable discussing death, or thinking about it. Hence, the gigantic terror we see in peoples eyes when they're looking for toilet roll in the supermarket, and another scared soul approaches...


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## Jacck

erki said:


> I think there is something wrong with the obsession with death specially in christian culture. If we would accept death as natural part of the life and would not scare people with the possibility of dying all the time we could make better decisions about life.


the virus might not just kill, it could also maim. We simply do not know enough about the long term effects of the virus. Survivors might have damaged lungs with a progressive pulmonary fibrosis and a need for lung transplantation. Some viruses can cause chronic conditions (an infection with hepatitis C goes chronic in 30% of cases and leads to cirrhosis and carcinoma). Do you want to release some unknown virus into the population and play Russian roulette and hope you get lucky and the bullet won't fire? The virus could have been purged, if countries acted swiftly and harshly from the beginning. Once you supress the community transmission, you can fight the disease with isolation and contact tracing. Now the only way is to lock down and flatten the curve, and then gradually release the lock down


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## erki

Also it is problem of medical ethics too. The postulate of saving life in any cost may need to looked at. Since the virus is medical issue that is out for killing people it conflicts with this saving life ethics.
We have had questions already how humane it really is to keep individual living with help of the machines in the end of their life. And how much resources it takes versus the good this person being alive a bit more.


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## Jacck

erki said:


> Also it is problem of medical ethics too. The postulate of saving life in any cost may need to looked at. Since the virus is medical issue that is out for killing people it conflicts with this saving life ethics.
> We have had questions already how humane it really is to keep individual living with help of the machines in the end of their life. And how much resources it takes versus the good this person being alive a bit more.


it is a complex topic, that you can only theorize about, but frankly do not understand if you have not dealt with it in practice. Of course people are not saved at all costs, sometimes we let them die and do not resuscitate them
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_not_resuscitate
it is a form of passive euthanasia


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## erki

Jacck said:


> The virus could have been purged, if countries acted swiftly and harshly from the beginning. Once you supress the community transmission, you can fight the disease with isolation and contact tracing. Now the only way is to lock down and flatten the curve, and then gradually release the lock down


I doubt that the virus could have purged. I agree with lockdown on the face of unknown but only accompanied with constant monitoring and constant adjusting. Not what we have now - we locked everything down and are scared to open up anything.


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## Jacck

erki said:


> I doubt that the virus could have purged. I agree with lockdown on the face of unknown but only accompanied with constant monitoring and constant adjusting. Not what we have now - we locked everything down and are scared to open up anything.


maybe in your country. We are opening up, as are many other countries in Europe, even the much more affected. The key is doing it gradually and monitoring progress


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## erki

Jacck said:


> maybe in your country. We are opening up, as are many other countries in Europe, even the much more affected. The key is doing it gradually and monitoring progress


Yes we do open a bit too. However this goes into politics again. As in most countries the government in power grabs all decision making. They do not engage opposition and they pick and choose the experts who share their political views. While in crisis that is everybody's business would need everybody to participate in decision making. Our opening strategy has many questions. Often politicians play solo and many try to get the most out of it(presenting themselves as heroes).
And any critics will be answered with this rather demagogic argument about lives versus money.


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## Jacck

Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked. The numbers suggest a different story
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

In practice, the Swedes have locked down too to some extent. It certainly was not business as usual


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## Sad Al

Jacck said:


> Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked. The numbers suggest a different story
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html
> 
> In practice, the Swedes have locked down too to some extent. It certainly was not business as usual


God please stop, you're dead


----------



## Flamme

DaveM said:


> Forget the people over 70 including those in nursing homes for the moment. What do you think is going to happen if everyone under 65-70 goes back to work prematurely? Are you willing to gamble that only a few (whatever that may be) will die in the name of the economy? What if the virus runs through company offices and people back in restaurants?
> 
> Perhaps not an exact comparison, but countries have gone to war at the expense of their economies and have eventually survived, democracy and economy eventually intact.


My dad is 68 and he works in the same company as me, hes gone completely nuts because he cannot work...


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## Jacck

Sad Al said:


> God please stop, you're dead


if he's dead, then he won't read it here, nicht wahr?


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> No, it's a serious question. Are you saying that it is right to write-off the lives of the over 70s (globally?) to save the global economy?


Let's get something clear here - yes, a person 70 or older, if they catch the virus, is much more likely to die of it than a younger person. But opening things back up does not guarantee every septuagenarian is doomed to die. Most people will not catch the virus. So it is a slightly higher fraction of a fraction of the population. Globally, we are talking thousands out of billions. It is no definite death sentence.

But ultimately, yes, somebody has to make hard choices. I'm probably not the best to make it - that is why we elect people to represent us. Sometimes they actually have to make a choice that may not be the best for everybody. Just like we have military leaders who make hard choices in combat - somebody is likely to die, and they get to choose who they put in a position to have a higher likelihood of death. Our leaders are supposed to make those decisions when they need to be made.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

If the over 70's are at so much more risk, why can't we open things back up, let people decide, like adults, how much they want to rejoin, and strongly encourage susceptible populations to continue to self-quarantine? We can continue to support them to make it possible that they don't have to go out if they don't feel it is safe for them to do so. 

Let's face it - even if we open things up, people will still be reluctant for a while to participate in some of the more high risk activities. Shopping malls and other enclosed spaces where larger numbers of people tend to congregate will likely still be avoided even after we open them up. Restaurants may still be mostly take out for some time to come. Online shopping is probably going to have a heyday.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

erki said:


> I think there is something wrong with the obsession with death specially in christian culture. If we would accept death as natural part of the life and would not scare people with the possibility of dying all the time we could make better decisions about life.


I think you misunderstand Christian culture. Christians don't necessarily want to die, but they recognize that death is not the end. They recognize that death is part of the process. I'm not sure what your understanding of what Christians believe is.


----------



## erki

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I think you misunderstand Christian culture. Christians don't necessarily want to die, but they recognize that death is not the end. They recognize that death is part of the process. I'm not sure what your understanding of what Christians believe is.


The fear of death is associated with punishment(Hell). This universal fear of unknown(Judgement Day) is cultured and used to control people to act civilised but also do questionable things. However the side effect is widespread paranoia about dying and letting to die. That is my understanding.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

erki said:


> The fear of death is associated with punishment(Hell). This universal fear of unknown(Judgement Day) is cultured and used to control people to act civilised but also do questionable things. However the side effect is widespread paranoia about dying and letting to die. That is my understanding.


Hell is associated with doing bad things and not repenting. People are encouraged to live good lives, and then they will do well in the next life. Are you telling me that people who have no belief in an afterlife don't have a fear of dying? Of being simply snuffed out of existence? Basic human nature is to prefer death to life, regardless of your beliefs - else why are we discussing any of this? You think those Chinese people, who are less likely to be Christian than the Europeans and Americans are, aren't afraid of dying? Connecting paranoia about dying of this virus to "Christian culture" strains credulity to the limit.


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## erki

Yes, I do not understand why do we discuss this. Unless we are personally afraid of dying of the virus and want to to avoid this in any cost even if to kill the economy. This questions of what is the acceptable price tag on life versus wellbeing doesn't feel legit. But question why are we so afraid of dying is a legit question.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> If the over 70's are at so much more risk.


You err in treating 70 as some magic threshold (and so do governments, but they pick a random threshold for financial reasons, to do with deploying resources). It's a sliding scale up the ages, with a steeper gradient for the older age groups (unsurprisingly). So, it's not just about the over 70s.

Nor is it just about the selfishness of individuals who are afraid of death. I am afraid of death - of oblivion - but until recently, not of the manner of death or of pain. Covid-19 has provided a specific to think about, and I'm not keen on it as a way to go. Nor am I keen on my wife and family not being with me in my last days.

But that aside, my concern is summarised by this columnist, Suzanne Moore. Note that she is referring to the UK economy.



> Why should we trust a government the strategy of which has been secretive and mostly too little, too late? The economy has shrunk; we all know that. We can grow it again, and more equitably, if the political will is there. It can be resurrected. The dead are locked down for ever. Stop this inane talk of saving lives versus saving the economy. It is a false binary. Health is wealth. If we don't understand that now, we never will.


https://www.theguardian.com/comment...alk-of-saving-lives-versus-saving-the-economy


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## mmsbls

Is there anyone here who believes society will not ever lift the sheltering in place restrictions? Given that the majority of politicians talks and media coverage seems to include the question of opening society back up, it would appear that we will, of course, lift restrictions, and the only question is when to do so. Sometime next month seems to be the most discussed target although many say the virus will tell us. In the US many more people are worried we will lift restrictions too soon rather than too late.

I'm not sure how many people truly considered my post, #3259, and Torkis's post, #3270. Those posts give reasons to believe that sheltering in place and other NPIs may very well increase _both_ health and economic outcomes. It may not be an either or but rather the best of both worlds to use NPIs. The question now is when and how to lift restrictions. Much of the discussion I've heard from experts and politicians in the US seems very reasonable to me. We must carefully look at the decrease in new cases to a low enough value, test with approved high sensitivity/specificity tests, contact trace, and isolate infected individuals.

Unfortunately appropriate testing in high enough volume is not yet available, but hopefully it will be in the not too distant future. Certainly new cases and new deaths have either flattened or started to decrease in most places, but I'd like to see a very steady decline in both for longer.

Once we open up, the question becomes will we need to put NPIs back in place in some places due to rises in new cases.


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## Flamme

I was just thinking even if tomorrow all the measures were lifted and pandemic rooted out, I would have a psychological unease 2 return 2 ''normal'' life...I know I m not the only 1...


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## arpeggio

All I know is I want to live and if that means I have to shelter in place, I will shelter in place.

I have plenty of books to read, CD's to listen to and board games that my wife and I play.


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## mmsbls

Here's a study that has yet to be peer reviewed. Researchers in China investigated a large number of cases to determine the environment of transmission. Only 1 out of over 7,000 cases involved outdoor transmission. The main conclusion for the study was that "sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk."


----------



## mmsbls

Flamme said:


> I was just thinking even if tomorrow all the measures were lifted and pandemic rooted out, I would have a psychological unease 2 return 2 ''normal'' life...I know I m not the only 1...


The 2 people I know who own restaurants said 1) they would be very hesitant to be in their restaurant with any number of customers and 2) they expect that relatively few people would eat at their restaurants for quite awhile maybe until a vaccine or drugs were available.


----------



## starthrower

What about the major economic fallout as a result of the destruction of the small business community? Once it was deemed necessary, state governments moved quickly to designate thousands of small businesses non essential and forced them to close their doors. Very little is being done to ensure their survival and according to the small business administration the country could lose half of 30 million small businesses. Not to mention the thousands of suppliers who do business with these companies. These business failures will result in at least 30 million permanent job losses, not to mention the loss to communities and society at large. If the lockdown continues, government leaders need to act swiftly or we will be living with the devastating aftermath for years to come.


----------



## Flamme

It seems the only 'profiteers'' from this will be the online retailers.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I think you misunderstand Christian culture. Christians don't necessarily want to die, but they recognize that death is not the end. They recognize that death is part of the process. I'm not sure what your understanding of *what Christians believe* is.


*"What Christians believe . . . "*

There is no ONE set of beliefs for Christians, they are not a similarly-minded voting block or demographic.

While, in theory, "Christians" may not fear death, because they'll go to Heaven, many fear death because they know they'll go to Hell. Some have convinced themselves in the short term that they've been good enough to go to the "good place", but have doubts. Even the Bible is quite clear about the exact number of people that will get Heaven - 1,000 each from each of the 12 tribes. Heaven: population 144,000. (Revalation 7:4)

1 Peter 1: 3-4 - God selects a limited number of faithful Christians.

John 3:13 - Jesus said: "No man has ascended into heaven." So even the good people who died before him, such as Abraham, Moses, Job, and David, did not go to heaven.

But you know, Christians are all over the map about all sorts of things

.



starthrower said:


> What about the major economic fallout as a result of the destruction of the small business community? Once it was deemed necessary, state governments moved quickly to designate thousands of small businesses non essential and forced them to close their doors. Very little is being done to ensure their survival and according to the small business administration the country could lose half of 30 million small businesses. Not to mention the thousands of suppliers who do business with these companies. These business failures will result in at least 30 million permanent job losses, not to mention the loss to communities and society at large. If the lockdown continues, government leaders need to act swiftly or we will be living with the devastating aftermath for years to come.


Here in the USA, our leaders are certainly not all on the same page, but the Federal government is certainly NOT putting small businesses on top of their priority heap - no they are far more concerned that entire industries that employ hundreds or thousands don't go under.

No matter how it's all sliced up, the economy has, and will continue to, take a shellacking. If thousands of small businesses fail, it will trickle up as all of the individuals stop being PART of the economy and, instead, become a drain on it. If Big Business fails, it will trickle down as supply chains, and employees, are affected.

This pandemic and its responses will be with us for a long time to come.


----------



## Guest

starthrower said:


> If the lockdown continues, government leaders need to act swiftly


Yes, we all agree on this.


----------



## starthrower

pianozach said:


> *
> If Big Business fails, it will trickle down as supply chains, and employees, are affected.
> *


*

It's the same for small business failures. Millions of restaurants supplied by food distributors who are connected to the farmers, linen services, exterminators, trash haulers, accountants, landlords, etc... Not to mention the myriad of other small businesses. Business owners interviewed in the articles I've read mentioned the confusing and convoluted application process that must be navigated to receive government assistance.*


----------



## starthrower

MacLeod said:


> Yes, we all agree on this.


Somebody better send the petition to the out of touch politicians pretty quickly. According to a report from the financial sector. On average most small companies will go broke after 27 days without income.


----------



## Open Book

tortkis said:


> The plot below compares the deaths per 100K people of St. Louis and Philadelphia in 1918. St. Louis enacted the social distancing order quickly - 2 days after the first case of the flu, while Philadelphia waited for 16 days. The mortality of the former was much smaller than the latter, and that paper (I just skimmed graphs) shows that the economy (change in employment, 1914-1919) of St. Louis was no worse than that of Philadelphia.


Here's another model that shows it isn't so simple that more social distancing = fewer deaths. Its creators, Harvard scientists Grad and Lipsitch, claim that more and earlier distancing will put off deaths but not necessarily reduce their number. The wrong amount of restrictions can actually increase the total number of deaths. There are complex variables as to how much and how long social distancing should be enacted.

*A even bigger reveal is that they are positive that it is too late to contain this virus. *The only result will be herd immunity which they define as at least 50% of the population getting the virus. The trick is how to achieve herd immunity with the least possible casualties and pressure on medical resources.

I'm floored because I had no idea it would ever be too late to contain a virus, no matter how contagious. I thought containment was still an option, even the main goal.

I wonder if other experts agree with this. And if our political leaders are resigned to this.

"The only way this ends: herd immunity"

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/10/opinion/its-possible-flatten-curve-too-long/

I hope people can read this without a subscription.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> You err in treating 70 as some magic threshold (and so do governments, but they pick a random threshold for financial reasons, to do with deploying resources). It's a sliding scale up the ages, with a steeper gradient for the older age groups (unsurprisingly). So, it's not just about the over 70s.


I don't believe it is some magic threshold. I realize it is just a convenient place holder - there is a distribution around that age, but that is a reasonable number to use. All numbers are imprecise, but what else do we have to hand to use?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> Here's another model that shows it isn't so simple that more social distancing = fewer deaths. Its creators, Harvard scientists Grad and Lipsitch, claim that more and earlier distancing will put off deaths but not necessarily reduce their number. The wrong amount of restrictions can actually increase the total number of deaths. There are complex variables as to how much and how long social distancing should be enacted.
> 
> A even bigger reveal is that they are positive that it is too late to contain this virus. The only result will be herd immunity which they define as at least 50% of the population getting the virus. The trick is how to achieve herd immunity with the least possible casualties and pressure on medical resources.
> 
> I'm floored because I had no idea it would ever be too late to contain a virus, no matter how contagious. I thought containment was still an option, even the main goal.
> 
> I wonder if other experts agree with this. And if our political leaders are resigned to this.
> 
> "The only way this ends: herd immunity"
> 
> https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/10/opinion/its-possible-flatten-curve-too-long/
> 
> I hope people can read this without a subscription.


I think the disinformation and the suppression of facts about this from the Chinese early on, combined with their allowing people from Wuhan to disperse to the entire world, prevented any chance of containing this early on. Had they acted early, rather than pretend nothing was happening, this could have been contained. Their obsession with secrecy and irrational denial of any problems was the perfect environment to sprout and nourish a pandemic.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> I checked my county's stats earlier today. Somebody 65 or older diagnosed with Covid-19 is about 5.4 times as likely to die from it as somebody under 65, on average. So far there have been no deaths under 25 years old.


An important stat. I was looking for a stat like that. But it needs a bit of explanation.

Are people over 65 more likely to contract the virus or just more likely to die once they do contract it?

Maybe people over 65 are more likely to be put in vulnerable positions where they have no control over social distancing. e.g., a nursing home, where caregivers must have physical contact with them. Then they might be infected at greater rates, which results in more deaths.

But I don't doubt that it's mostly that people over 65 have more underlying conditions and less ability to fight off the virus.


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I think the disinformation and the suppression of facts about this from the Chinese early on, combined with their allowing people from Wuhan to disperse to the entire world, prevented any chance of containing this early on. Had they acted early, rather than pretend nothing was happening, this could have been contained. Their obsession with secrecy and irrational denial of any problems was the perfect environment to sprout and nourish a pandemic.


And now they're acting as if they've contained it in China. Does anybody really believe that?


----------



## Kieran

Open Book said:


> And now they're acting as if they've contained it in China. Does anybody really believe that?


I don't believe anything that comes out of China - not their stats, their research, their offers of help - nothing...


----------



## DaveM

Open Book said:


> An important stat. I was looking for a stat like that. But it needs a bit of explanation.
> 
> Are people over 65 more likely to contract the virus or just more likely to die once they do contract it?
> 
> Maybe people over 65 are more likely to be put in vulnerable positions where they have no control over social distancing. e.g., a nursing home, where caregivers must have physical contact with them. Then they might be infected at greater rates, which results in more deaths.
> 
> But I don't doubt that it's mostly that people over 65 have more underlying conditions and less ability to fight off the virus.


The immune system ages with us. There are less T-cells, vaccines (with some exceptions) don't work as well and complex interactions that are part of the immune response don't work as well. So, even with no co-morbidity, people over 60-70 are more vulnerable.


----------



## Jacck

Coronavirus alert: Rare syndrome seen in UK children
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52439005


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> I don't believe anything that comes out of China - not their stats, their research, their offers of help - nothing...


I had read at one point that early in the outbreak in China, Italy had donated masks to China. Then later, when Italy was hard hit, China was selling them back their own masks. Trying to find out if that story held up.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I don't believe it is some magic threshold. I realize it is just a convenient place holder - there is a distribution around that age, but *that is a reasonable number to use*. All numbers are imprecise, but what else do we have to hand to use?


For what? I disagree.


----------



## Open Book

MacLeod said:


> For what? I disagree.


What's wrong with breaking up cases into under 70 and over 70? A lot of people here are near to or in the over-70 age group and can relate, so that's why it's a reasonable number to talk about here. Obviously any number can be used, though.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> What's wrong with breaking up cases into under 70 and over 70? A lot of people here are near to or in the over-70 age group and can relate, so that's why it's a reasonable number to talk about here. Obviously any number can be used, though.


Have you read the full exchange of posts between Ekim and me?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> Have you read the full exchange of posts between Ekim and me?


What age would you recommend?


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> What age would you recommend?


I wouldn't. That's my point, not for the idea that everyone above should do this and everyone below should do that. The exception should be if interim measures relate to children of school age.


----------



## Open Book

MacLeod said:


> I wouldn't. That's my point, not for the idea that everyone above should do this and everyone below should do that. The exception should be if interim measures relate to children of school age.


Who said there's a hard and fast line at age 70 and that people above and below must do different things? It's just a guideline.

It's just a line for statistical purposes.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> Who said there's a hard and fast line at age 70 and that people above and below must do different things? It's just a guideline.
> 
> It's just a line for statistical purposes.


As I said, read the preceding posts from Ekim where he was suggesting that it should be used for more than statistical purposes:



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> If the over 70's are at so much more risk, why can't we open things back up, let people decide, like adults, how much they want to rejoin, and strongly encourage susceptible populations to continue to self-quarantine? We can continue to support them to make it possible that they don't have to go out if they don't feel it is safe for them to do so.


----------



## Open Book

MacLeod said:


> As I said, read the preceding posts from Ekim where he was suggesting that it should be used for more than statistical purposes.


Is this what you object to?

"If the over 70's are at so much more risk, why can't we open things back up, let people decide, like adults, how much they want to rejoin, and strongly encourage susceptible populations to continue to self-quarantine? We can continue to support them to make it possible that they don't have to go out if they don't feel it is safe for them to do so."

There is nothing wrong with this statement. Not that I necessarily agree with his conclusion about opening things up or that you have to agree. Actually I am starting to have some agreement with this, because it looks like containment of the virus is never going to happen.

At age 70 probably most people don't have to work anymore and can quarantine.

He knows it's a statistic. He's using statistics to decide whether to open things up. That's a reasonable thing to do. That's what our governing leaders will do. That's what we all do. We weigh outcomes against each other. Not everyone is a statistical expert, of course.

I'm done being in the middle of you and Ekim.


----------



## Guest

_One _piece of evidence re age distribution of deaths in UK - but more than a month old.










Better still, see s.5 in this dataset from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the whole of March.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...d19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020



> The age-specific mortality rate due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased significantly in each age group, starting from ages 55 to 59 years in males and ages 65 to 69 years in females.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> Is this what you object to?
> 
> "If the over 70's are at so much more risk,


"Object" is putting it strongly. I'm querying the assumption that the over 70s are 'so much more at risk'. Obviously, they _are _'so much more at risk', than, say, the 0-5 age group, but not so much more than the 65-70 age group.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> I wouldn't. That's my point, not for the idea that everyone above should do this and everyone below should do that. The exception should be if interim measures relate to children of school age.


This is standard, though, in the medical field in general, and in science. We always talk about certain age groups being at higher risk. If you want to revise it to another number, to catch more of the vulnerable population, I'm fine with that. Not every person with diabetes will die from this virus - not even every person with diabetes who catches it. But we still identify this group as being at higher risk. There is a definite correlation between doing poorer with various infectious diseases and being older. Ignoring that and just treating everybody equally is not logical, or even scientifically sound. When we deal with things like this, you have to treat people as populations. There are not enough resources to tailor treatments to each and every individual - at least not at the population level. That can be left up to individuals and their doctors who know their situation. But guidelines can be set that say that, in general, if you are over a certain age, you definitely want to be more cautious.

How is that controversial?


----------



## Flamme

I c quite a bit of CONFUSION of what is happening next...There are two extreme views, 1 that says LETS SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN AD INFINITUM and other which 4 OPENING BY ALL MEANS. Even the middle ground between these two is rooted in confusion and ignorance of the nature of this virus...


----------



## Open Book

MacLeod said:


> "Object" is putting it strongly. I'm querying the assumption that the over 70s are 'so much more at risk'. Obviously, they _are _'so much more at risk', than, say, the 0-5 age group, but not so much more than the 65-70 age group.


Look at your own bar graph you have just pasted in post 3323! It shows older people are overwhelmingly at risk.

94% of deaths are of people over 64! From that graph.

If you start at age 70, it won't be much better. It will be about 85%.


----------



## Jacck

No Testing, No Treatment, No Herd Immunity, No Easy Way Out
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/stop-waiting-miracle/610795/

personally, I believe the best way to deal with it at this point is manage the first wave through a lockdown, use to time to prepare and implement testing, smart quarantines to do effective contact tracing. Then gradually open up and survive a year or so until a vaccine or effective treatment is found.


----------



## Open Book

Flamme said:


> I c quite a bit of CONFUSION of what is happening next...There are two extreme views, 1 that says LETS SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN AD INFINITUM and other which 4 OPENING BY ALL MEANS. Even the middle ground between these two is rooted in confusion and ignorance of the nature of this virus...


The information about the virus is always changing. Not long ago I saw stats that made it look like age was only a minor factor in surviveability. Those stats have since been refuted.


----------



## mmsbls

Jacck said:


> No Testing, No Treatment, No Herd Immunity, No Easy Way Out
> https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/stop-waiting-miracle/610795/
> 
> personally, I believe the best way to deal with it at this point is manage the first wave through a lockdown, use to time to prepare and implement testing, smart quarantines to do effective contact tracing. Then gradually open up and survive a year or so until a vaccine or effective treatment is found.


I agree, and I think the vast majority of people in positions of authority have been essentially alluding to this strategy. The one possible change is that after opening up, certain places may exhibit significant increases in infections. In that case, we might need another round of sheltering though I assume that second round would be milder and more targeted. In theory we could have a third round of sheltering as well. The hope would be that future rounds would be less intrusive and shorter.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Given the huge disparity between urban and suburban/rural infection/mortality rates, will there be less of a draw to live in big cities going forward? Will the average citizen of New York City reconsider living in such a concentrated urban environment going forward? How will this reshape peoples' thinking? Will personal automobiles receive a relative spike in popularity compared to public transportation? 

I know a lot of the city policies in NYC have had to be rethought in light of the shutdown - services relating to food delivery, etc. Will they revert back afterwards?


----------



## Flamme

''Some ppl say'', lol, that until there is a place on earth that cannot adhere 2 strict quarantine measures, which is almost whole ''third world'', which is a HUGE part of the Earths crust, no matter how good the fight is in developed world the new outbreak can explode anytime...If this is our perspective life will indeed be a living hell and civilisations may crumble.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

People with minds infected by the Virus are expanding the definition of artificial intelligence .
Humans will get stupid and emulate machine intelligence until machines are logically welcomed
as the savior superior mind . This is the horror .


----------



## KenOC

I looked more closely at my county’s corona virus experience from the standpoint of age.

1. If you are 65 years old or older, you’re 1.52 times more likely to be diagnosed with Covid-19 than those in the younger cohort. This may be partially due to the greater medical scrutiny you’re likely receiving as an oldster.

2. Once diagnosed, you’re 5.2 times more likely to die from the infection than those in the younger cohort who are similarly diagnosed.

3. Taking both factors into account, you’re 8.3 times more likely to be diagnosed with Covid-19 and die from it than those in the under-65 group.

Cautions: These are interim results since cases are still being diagnosed. There are a number of people in the hospitals whose cases have not been resolved. Overall, the number of diagnosed cases in this county is surprisingly small given its large population and overall urban nature.


----------



## DaveM

I’m wondering whether those under 60 here who are apparently willing to sacrifice a number of those over 70 in the name of the economy are including their mothers/fathers or grandmothers/grandfathers in the sacrifice.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> This is standard, though, in the medical field in general, and in science. We always talk about certain age groups being at higher risk. If you want to revise it to another number, to catch more of the vulnerable population, I'm fine with that. Not every person with diabetes will die from this virus - not even every person with diabetes who catches it. But we still identify this group as being at higher risk. There is a definite correlation between doing poorer with various infectious diseases and being older. Ignoring that and just treating everybody equally is not logical, or even scientifically sound. When we deal with things like this, you have to treat people as populations. There are not enough resources to tailor treatments to each and every individual - at least not at the population level. That can be left up to individuals and their doctors who know their situation. But guidelines can be set that say that, in general, if you are over a certain age, you definitely want to be more cautious.
> 
> How is that controversial?


What you describe about the use of age-groups for risk analysis is not controversial. I wasn't arguing that all ages should be treated equally (except earlier in the thread in my objection to Christabel's idea that the over 70s are dispensable).

If we're going to pick a threshold, let's look at the stats and decide where there is an unacceptably high risk. Just picking over 70 because that's what the government has determined is not sufficient for me - I'd want more information to help me quantify the risk. As a 61 year old, I may be at greater risk than I'd like to be - but I don't know. (It wasn't long since anyone over 60 was regarded as over the hill, never mind over 70)



Open Book said:


> Look at your own bar graph you have just pasted in post 3323! It shows older people are overwhelmingly at risk.


Yes. Agreed. I didn't say they weren't. My reason for putting scare quotes round 'so much more at ris was to highlight the part of Ekim's post I was querying. How much more? What does "so much more" mean? Not much more than 65-69, but obviously much more than 0-5 (I'm repeating myself to no useful end as I've obviously not explained myself properly.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I'm wondering whether those under 60 here who are apparently willing to sacrifice a number of those over 70 in the name of the economy are including their mothers/fathers or grandmothers/grandfathers in the sacrifice.


My mother was going to come see us in early March, before all these shutdowns started, but made the judgment herself to cancel the trip. Oddly enough, after over 70 years of living, she was able to make her own responsible decision without needing a politician to tell her. I suspect a great many others will also be able to do so. We aren't talking about forcing people. Just giving them the option of they do choose.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

MacLeod said:


> What you describe about the use of age-groups for risk analysis is not controversial. I wasn't arguing that all ages should be treated equally (except earlier in the thread in my objection to Christabel's idea that the over 70s are dispensable).
> 
> If we're going to pick a threshold, let's look at the stats and decide where there is an unacceptably high risk. Just picking over 70 because that's what the government has determined is not sufficient for me - I'd want more information to help me quantify the risk. As a 61 year old, I may be at greater risk than I'd like to be - but I don't know. (It wasn't long since anyone over 60 was regarded as over the hill, never mind over 70).
> 
> Yes. Agreed. I didn't say they weren't. My reason for putting scare quotes round 'so much more at ris was to highlight the part of Ekim's post I was querying. How much more? What does "so much more" mean? Not much more than 65-69, but obviously much more than 0-5 (I'm repeating myself to no useful end as I've obviously not explained myself properly.


Okay. Now we are just quibbling over a number that most people are throwing around. I did not mean 70 as an absolute. Obviously we will go with the best information. It's that what this whole tangent has revolved around? I already told you, several posts back, that I was just using an arbitrary number, and am totally open to whatever number makes the most sense.


----------



## Guest

It's not a question of "sacrifice". Why resort to breathless emotionalism? It's a matter of those in the danger category being isolated and quarantined for the duration of the pandemic so that the succeeding generations can have a chance to participate in the economy, grow and thrive.

Like it or not, there is such a thing as a 'global economy' (though how long that remains with China at the helm is moot). People have gone to war in the past over economic issues and here we are blithely reassuring ourselves that saving the elderly is the international priority. I say that's potentially dangerous, divisive at best. Let's open for business; there are millions of people depending on it.

My biggest fear is the international pressure on banks with the defaulting airlines (just as one example) which owe BILLIONS to banks. There's the 'trickle down' effect on the stock-market and that's going to have an impact on every single person, one way or another. Finally, there is such a thing as a fate worse than death.

Somebody has just posted this on the comments section BTL on our national newspaper:

*The real lesson from this is the unintended consequences of the government imposing repressive measures to try and control a virus that a lot of people won't even know they have caught, and most aged under 70 will make a full recovery from. Stop people from travelling - airlines go bust. Then the ground crew who service those airlines aren't needed any more, so their employer closes it's doors. Hotels sit empty. Restaurants sit empty. Farmers have to plough their salad greens in to the ground because they can't sell them to restaurants. The whole business is an overkill and needs to stop. Politicians, particularly those on the left, have become drunk on power and don't or won't see the irreversible damage they are doing. It has to stop*.


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> The immune system ages with us. There are less T-cells, vaccines (with some exceptions) don't work as well and complex interactions that are part of the immune response don't work as well. So, even with no co-morbidity, people over 60-70 are more vulnerable.


Also, in general, people did not live as long back during the 1918 flu as they do today. I do not know the stats on the 1918 flu, I am guessing there were not that many people dying from it at 60 to 70 and beyond as there were not that many still living as compared to, say 20 to 60 years of age. You can bet this coronavirus will be a teaching moment for medicine. They will certainly learn more about aging/lifestyle than before. And, as it is we already have skyrocketing diseases not really known back then, heart disease, diabetes, and new health issues such as wheat gluten allergies and the like.


----------



## Open Book

MacLeod said:


> If we're going to pick a threshold, let's look at the stats and decide where there is an unacceptably high risk. Just picking over 70 because that's what the government has determined is not sufficient for me - I'd want more information to help me quantify the risk. As a 61 year old, I may be at greater risk than I'd like to be - but I don't know. (It wasn't long since anyone over 60 was regarded as over the hill, never mind over 70)


"Unacceptably high risk"? Then you have to define and agree on "acceptable". Which is no different than what Christabel is doing.



MacLeod said:


> Yes. Agreed. I didn't say they weren't. My reason for putting scare quotes round 'so much more at ris was to highlight the part of Ekim's post I was querying. How much more? What does "so much more" mean? Not much more than 65-69, but obviously much more than 0-5 (I'm repeating myself to no useful end as I've obviously not explained myself properly.


Government is understandably taking a broad look at risk among all populations. I don't think they "just picked 70", they have their reasons.

You on the other hand are obviously most interested in your own personal risk. You'd like a chart with more granularity than the bar graph you posted, one that will not lump you in with 45-year-olds and 64-olds. You are only interested in people born in your year, not all older people.

Well, your bar graph still gives us a lot of information. It shows that no more than 5% of deaths were of people of age 61, wherever and whenever those stats were compiled. Not bad? In fact you can breathe easy until you are 65.


----------



## science

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Given the huge disparity between urban and suburban/rural infection/mortality rates, will there be less of a draw to live in big cities going forward? Will the average citizen of New York City reconsider living in such a concentrated urban environment going forward? How will this reshape peoples' thinking? Will personal automobiles receive a relative spike in popularity compared to public transportation?
> 
> I know a lot of the city policies in NYC have had to be rethought in light of the shutdown - services relating to food delivery, etc. Will they revert back afterwards?


Throughout world history, diseases have always hit cities hardest. In fact, until a few generations ago, urban populations were not self-reproducing: people died in cities faster than babies were born.

But people kept moving into them because that's where the opportunity is, where the goods are, where the fun is.

Anyway, the difference between how hard the coronavirus has hit Wyoming and how hard it has hit New York City isn't as important as the difference between how hard it has hit New York City and how hard it has hit Seoul. Blaming New Yorkers for their deaths because they lived in a city is a very sorry way to distract attention from the fact that most of the deaths are results of public policies that Americans have chosen because we don't give enough of a damn about each other to build a healthcare system that works for everyone.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

science said:


> Throughout world history, diseases have always hit cities hardest. In fact, until a few generations ago, urban populations were not self-reproducing: people died in cities faster than babies were born.
> 
> But people kept moving into them because that's where the opportunity is, where the goods are, where the fun is.
> 
> Anyway, the difference between how hard the coronavirus has hit Wyoming and how hard it has hit New York City isn't as important as the difference between how hard it has hit New York City and how hard it has hit Seoul. Blaming New Yorkers for their deaths because they lived in a city is a very sorry way to distract attention from the fact that most of the deaths are results of public policies that Americans have chosen because we don't give enough of a damn about each other to build a healthcare system that works for everyone.


I wasn't blaming anybody. Where do you get that?
But this has highlighted that, with pandemics like this, while there may be some advantages (more medical professionals than in more rural areas and similar things), there are also distinct risks that people further out won't experience - greater population density means it is harder to spread out and avoid sick people, sheltering in place means being confined to a much smaller area (the average square footage of an apartment in NYC is much smaller than a house in the suburbs, not to mention no yard, which allows getting outdoors while still sheltering in place), and greater reliance on public transportation (enclosed space, high density of people). True, in the past, things like this actually encouraged urbanization. But we have different things happening now. Technology has made the world much smaller. Information is easily accessed from anywhere. Thanks to online shopping, there really isn't anything you can purchase some place like NYC that you can't just as easily purchase while sitting in your lounge chair by your pool in some small West Texas town - and Amazon can get it to you in 2 days. Or even if you don't want to live in the country, even just living in a suburb significantly decreases your exposure to the above risks, while still being close enough to enjoy the benefits of a large city.


----------



## Open Book

science said:


> Throughout world history, diseases have always hit cities hardest. In fact, until a few generations ago, urban populations were not self-reproducing: people died in cities faster than babies were born.
> 
> But people kept moving into them because that's where the opportunity is, where the goods are, where the fun is.
> 
> Anyway, the difference between how hard the coronavirus has hit Wyoming and how hard it has hit New York City isn't as important as the difference between how hard it has hit New York City and how hard it has hit Seoul. Blaming New Yorkers for their deaths because they lived in a city is a very sorry way to distract attention from the fact that most of the deaths are results of public policies that Americans have chosen because we don't give enough of a damn about each other to build a healthcare system that works for everyone.


I didn't take it that Ekim is blaming New Yorkers for choosing to live in a city, just that some will reconsider their choice in the new virus-infected world.

This is bad news for the environment if people spread out more, use all the available land up for new houses, and drive more automobiles.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

I am putting up a free-camping sign on my property . This land is of trees and wildflowers along a river .
You may arrive by canoe ... otherwise , you might not notice the sign . Virus-infected minds will not
comprehend this post .


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My mother was going to come see us in early March, before all these shutdowns started, but made the judgment herself to cancel the trip. Oddly enough, after over 70 years of living, she was able to make her own responsible decision without needing a politician to tell her. I suspect a great many others will also be able to do so. We aren't talking about forcing people. Just giving them the option of they do choose.


I'm not sure 'We' applies. There are a couple here who don't seem to be talking 'options' or 'choices'.


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> It's not a question of "sacrifice". Why resort to breathless emotionalism? It's a matter of those in the danger category being isolated and quarantined for the duration of the pandemic so that the succeeding generations can have a chance to participate in the economy, grow and thrive.
> 
> Like it or not, there is such a thing as a 'global economy' (though how long that remains with China at the helm is moot). People have gone to war in the past over economic issues and here we are blithely reassuring ourselves that saving the elderly is the international priority. I say that's potentially dangerous, divisive at best. Let's open for business; there are millions of people depending on it.


Interesting terminology considering the situation: 'breathless emotionalism', not to mention how one would tell on a forum. This sounds like something our great leader would come out with: Keep the elderly sequestered and then open up the economy as if the virus won't run wild among the younger demographic if it's done prematurely. Btw, I haven't heard anywhere that what countries are doing now is based on a primary 'save the elderly' goal which is what you seem to be insinuating.

Everyone wants our economies going again whether it is about jobs or being able to enjoy what they provide. I can't speak for Australia, but I know that in the U.S. the difference in the populations in the various states doesn't allow for a 'one size fits all' approach to re-opening the economy.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I'm not sure 'We' applies. There are a couple here who don't seem to be talking 'options' or 'choices'.


I think the assumption is that we return the choice to people to open up and go out. In normal times we don't force businesses to be open or people to go anywhere. I don't think anybody is talking about taking away choices and options, rather just letting people open if they want without fear of fines or imprisonment.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I think the assumption is that we return the choice to people to open up and go out. In normal times we don't force businesses to be open or people to go anywhere.


These don't feel like normal times to me.



> I don't think anybody is talking about taking away choices and options, rather just letting people open if they want without fear of fines or imprisonment.


Okay, so let's say we do that. What do we do if the virus resurges, the curve goes sharply upward from the plateaus we are beginning to see and hospital capacities are in danger of being overwhelmed? What then?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> These don't feel like normal times to me.


So? We still don't force people to open their businesses or go shopping.



DaveM said:


> Okay, so let's say we do that. What do we do if the virus resurges, the curve goes sharply upward from the plateaus we are beginning to see and hospital capacities are in danger of being overwhelmed? What then?


Then we adapt, just like we did before, and we know more now than we did. But there is always going to be the possibility of a resurgence. We have annual resurgences of the flu, and we adapt. Some years it is worse than others, and we adjust things accordingly.

I think a big takeaway here is that we worked surprisingly well here. We were worried about so much that ultimately didn't happen, because people adapted quickly. Remember back when the big fear was we would have a shortage of ventilators? It never happened. When masks became scarce, people mobilized and made masks.

We don't know everything about this virus yet, and we don't have a cure yet. But we have figured out a lot of things that work well. But I think people will be more understanding and less impatient if we tell them we will cautiously reopen and possibly have to adjust if things pop up, as opposed to open-ended shutdowns.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> So? We still don't force people to open their businesses or go shopping.
> 
> Then we adapt, just like we did before, and we know more now than we did. But there is always going to be the possibility of a resurgence. We have annual resurgences of the flu, and we adapt. Some years it is worse than others, and we adjust things accordingly.
> 
> I think a big takeaway here is that we worked surprisingly well here. We were worried about so much that ultimately didn't happen, because people adapted quickly. Remember back when the big fear was we would have a shortage of ventilators? It never happened. When masks became scarce, people mobilized and made masks.
> 
> We don't know everything about this virus yet, and we don't have a cure yet. But we have figured out a lot of things that work well. But I think people will be more understanding and less impatient if we tell them we will cautiously reopen and possibly have to adjust if things pop up, as opposed to open-ended shutdowns.


You're painting a rosier picture than my experience or what the experts seem to be saying. We've lost close to 60,000 people in a little over 2 months. We don't have a cure and the only reason we did have enough ventilators is because we shut down everything. Perhaps we can reopen some things cautiously. How much is beyond my pay grade.


----------



## KenOC

Meat packing plants are shutting down. There are dire warnings from the industry* that meat shortages may begin showing up at markets by the end of the week. It seems that the work requires lots of people working at close quarters hour after hour. This all started when the Smithfield pork processing plant in South Dakota closed with 293 cases of Covid-19 among its workers. 

Trump has now invoked the Defense Production Act to force the processing plants to remain open. But he can’t force the employees to come to work, which may be a real problem.

A suggestion: A very high percentage of workers in these plants seem to be illegal immigrants (or “undocumented workers” as Democrats prefer to call them, as if they simply left some unimportant pieces of paper at home). Let’s offer these now-important folks a real path to citizenship as a reward for putting themselves at risk for the rest of us. And we might throw in free health care, since it may be needed, and life insurance to compensate their families should they die from their good deeds.

-------------------------------

* "In a full-page ad published on Sunday in The New York Times and The Washington Post, John Tyson, the chairman of the board of Tyson, said millions of pounds of meat would disappear from the supply chain as pork, beef and chicken plants are forced to close, leaving a limited supply of Tyson products available in grocery stores.

“ 'The food supply chain is breaking,' Mr. Tyson said."


----------



## Room2201974

^^^^^^^^^^^

Put yourself in the shoes of a worker in a meat processing plant. If you go back to work you risk dying or infecting another member of your family. If you refuse to work you'll be fired and thus not eligible for unemployment....assuming you're legal. If you are illegal then it is a felony to hire you.....but we never talk about that.

Meatless Monday's would help our national gut.


----------



## KenOC

Problems defining coronavirus-related deaths have been discussed here. A recent example: Over 700 people have perished in Iran from *drinking methanol*, in the false belief that it prevents Covid-19 infection. Coronavirus-related deaths or not?


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Problems defining coronavirus-related deaths have been discussed here. A recent example: Over 700 people have perished in Iran from *drinking methanol*, in the false belief that it prevents Covid-19 infection. Coronavirus-related deaths or not?


An emergency room doctor in Manhattan who treated coronavirus patients died by suicide on Sunday, police said.

Dr. Lorna Breen, 49, the medical director of the emergency department at New York-Presbyterian Allen Hospital, was staying with family in Charlottesville, Virginia.

City police responded to a call for medical assistance and took Breen to the University of Virginia Medical Center, where she died after suffering self-inflicted injuries, police said.

"She cracked under the stress," of dealing with the pandemic day after day.

It was not clear why Lorna Breen would have taken her own life. She did not have a history of mental illness, her father said. But he said that when he last spoke with her, she seemed detached, and he could tell something was wrong. She had described to him an onslaught of patients dying before they could even be taken out of ambulances.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/nyc-er-doc-lorna-breens-suicide-leaves-friends-colleagues-shaken/

*Coronavirus-related death or not?*


----------



## Guest

This conversation is proving more difficult than it need, partly because we're not all seeing things from the same national perspective. What I need to know is what the UK govenment is planning; what others here want to know is what the US intends to do. These may be broadly similar, but the national debates are not the same. Consequently, some of things that are being said are a response to what Downing Street / The White House are, or are not saying. For example, reasoned argument...



> I think people will be more understanding and less impatient if we tell them we will cautiously reopen and possibly have to adjust if things pop up, as opposed to open-ended shutdowns.


In the UK, that is what is being said (though some are not hearing it). I'd rather not comment on what is being said in the US, because over here, we may only be getting the juiciest headlines.

On the other hand, the marginal differences between most debating here is occasionally interrupted by "breathless emotionalism" (?)



> I am absolutely horrified by this image, [...]I can't contain my anger and distress about it.


Setting such hyperbole aside, what _everyone _has in common is the desire to see that everyone can get back to work "_as soon as possible_"; some seem to be arguing for "as soon as possible" to be NOW- today or tomorrow; others, that the health risks are still too great and we need to wait longer.

What no-one _wants _(note the emphasis) is for the economy to be so harmed that it can't recover. What some suspect is that it's too late already. What others want is to use the time before we reopen in reassessing the social, economic, cultural, health and environmental problems that this crisis has highlighted. That's a tall order, whatever the time we have.

Some gestures that an international debate will take place about, for example, our treatment of the animal population would be helpful - more helpful that simply shouting for China to be punished for its wet markets. In the UK, we're asked to stand on our doorsteps every Thursday to applaud our health and care workers; and much has been made of the courage of our 'key workers' still running our critical industries - food shops, pharmacies, transport, food production - but some of these are not well paid, and again, a gesture that their critical role will be recognised in better pay and conditions would also be welcomed.

Finally, there's everyone's personal perspective and response. I'm disappointed that one has suggested that I am



> obviously most interested in your own personal risk.


No, I am not "_most_" interested in my own personal risk, though I'm not going to elaborate on the personal issues that I am concerned about at the moment to show otherwise. Instead, I'd like it noted that _everyone _here brings their own personal perspective, and it can't lightly be set aside.


----------



## Radames

Open Book said:


> Here's another model that shows it isn't so simple that more social distancing = fewer deaths. Its creators, Harvard scientists Grad and Lipsitch, claim that more and earlier distancing will put off deaths but not necessarily reduce their number..


That's what I read. 
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

But the only place in the US that has had the hospitals even close to being overwhelmed in NYC, probably because of the population density and heavy use of public transportation. Sweden has done limited social disatncing and is claiming to be weeks away from herd immunity. 
Now I read this:


> They predict that under an intermittent social distancing program with no other interventions, the outbreak could last until 2022.
> 
> Without social distancing of any kind, the team argued the pandemic could be over as early as this fall - but with the high cost of far exceeding the healthcare system's capabilities and considerable fatalities.


----------



## Radames

Sweden story:
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/8452...-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says

Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach 'Herd Immunity' In May


----------



## DaveM

Regarding the ED doctor who committed suicide: she was just recovering from Covid-19 herself and was not acting normally. She had no history of mental illness. We know that the virus can have neurological effects which might include post-virus depression. In this case, this poor physician would be fighting depression on two fronts.


----------



## Jacck

Radames said:


> Sweden story:
> https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/8452...-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says
> 
> Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach 'Herd Immunity' In May


Many right-wingers considered Sweden to be one of the worst countries on earth - a feminist hellhole, a progressivist hellhole with gender neutral upbringing, a muslim infested hellhole etc Now the same right-wingers praise Sweden for its response. Haha. Personally, I think their approach (even if it ultimately works) was/is deeply irresponsible and hazardous and is unjustifiable.


----------



## Jacck

Czech exit plan described in the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-as-part-of-gradual-coronavirus-lockdown-exit


----------



## mrdoc

KenOC said:


> Problems defining coronavirus-related deaths have been discussed here. A recent example: Over 700 people have perished in Iran from *drinking methanol*, in the false belief that it prevents Covid-19 infection. Coronavirus-related deaths or not?


They are just idiots alcohol is much better I've got a load in.


----------



## Flamme

I think this Virus will be just another EXCUSE 4 ppl 2 be even more selfish and egocentrical, not that they need much, 2 push them over the edge.


----------



## science

DaveM said:


> You're painting a rosier picture than my experience or what the experts seem to be saying. We've lost close to 60,000 people in a little over 2 months. We don't have a cure and the only reason we did have enough ventilators is because we shut down everything. Perhaps we can reopen some things cautiously. How much is beyond my pay grade.


That's nearly 60k that we know about. The actual numbers are surely bigger. We'll never know the real numbers, but we'll only really be able to make accurate estimations when it's over and we see how many people are alive compared to how many we would've expected to be alive without the virus.

Anyway, you're assuming that those lives are important, but from a conservative POV, what are those 60k lives worth? In the US, we choose to lose 80k people a year because we don't care as much about those lives as about the profits of private health insurers. We choose to kill thousands of people a year because we don't care as much about those lives as about the profits of corporate polluters. And so on with all kinds of policies. Everything comes down to what someone's life means to a powerful person's net worth, and the lives of most of the people that are dying do not do much for powerful people's net worth. So their very logical conclusion is that we should reopen society and let the inconvenient people die.


----------



## Flamme

Wil this be the end of MomsnPops stores across US and the world...Time will tell, but it doesnt look good.


----------



## eljr

Flamme said:


> Wil this be the end of MomsnPops stores across US and the world...Time will tell, but it doesnt look good.


i think it an excellent opportunity to start a small business.

existing businesses are folding leaving tremendous opportunity when a vaccine becomes common


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> Personally, I think their approach (even if it ultimately works) was/is deeply irresponsible and hazardous and is unjustifiable.


I do not agree with the statement "was/is deeply irresponsible and hazardous and is unjustifiable". Mostly because this is the only way we have have to adopt in long run in anyway. We can not start shutting down everything every time some kind of virus emerges. I think we need to start accepting the fatalities and LIVE with it - not to shelter in bunkers. As far as I know Sweden is one of the few countries where the crisis has been actually intelligently managed(versus panic driven conflicting decision making). They close as little possible and as much as needed to maintain the spread.


----------



## Kieran

erki said:


> I do not agree with the statement "was/is deeply irresponsible and hazardous and is unjustifiable". Mostly because this is the only way we have have to adopt in long run in anyway. We can not start shutting down everything every time some kind of virus emerges. I think we need to start accepting the fatalities and LIVE with it - not to shelter in bunkers. As far as I know Sweden is one of the few countries where the crisis has been actually intelligently managed(versus panic driven conflicting decision making). They close as little possible and as much as needed to maintain the spread.


I agree, and add to this, we're only in round 1 of this boxing match with Covid, there will be more rounds, and it's far to early to say who's managing it properly.

Let's have the second wave, let's measure herd immunity in 2 years time, let's cash in our chips and count up the casualties then, and let's see if there's much difference between disparate places and populations, which are difficult to compare, anyway.

I read a newspaper article the other day, it showed Swedish youths in a night club. Dancing. And _still _practising social distancing. It may yet be said that there was great sense to the Swedish approach, and that the Swedish people acted very responsibly with their freedom...


----------



## Flamme

Some1 said the Nordic ppl are in general more cold and distanced so this is not a big change 4 thenm...Impo the more u go north the ppl get - degree in general...


----------



## Room2201974

Forward, the Meat Brigade!"
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the worker knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.*

*_The Charge Of The Meat Brigade_ by Alfred Lord Venison, currently being lived everyday at a meat processing plant near you.


----------



## Sad Al

There won't be a vaccine. Never. There won't be 2021 Tokyo Olympics or any other Olympic circuses. Nevermore! - as Edgar Allan Poe put it. We're dealing with coronavirus, literally the virus who wears a crown. The King virus! The smart virus. It isn't a conspiracy but a new better, way smarter lifeform that evolution has produced. Let's face it: COVID-19 is the Second Coming. You know what I mean, I saw a COVID-19 patient standing there.


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> Some1 said the Nordic ppl are in general more cold and distanced so this is not a big change 4 thenm...Impo the more u go north the ppl get - degree in general...


Oh exactly, it was a difficulty in Italy, their touchy feely greetings. I got out of Rome just before they threw a cordon around it, but my friend was there with her elderly folks, sunbathing in their garden, and reflecting on how the kiss to each cheek might so easy spread the virus, but also that everybody still did this. Similarly, the Spanish are generous this way. Hopefully they'll never change! But for now they'll have to, until things get back to normal again...


----------



## starthrower

Flamme said:


> Wil this be the end of MomsnPops stores across US and the world...Time will tell, but it doesnt look good.


Most of them are already gone in the U.S. The only ones left are in the small rural towns where the big chains don't bother setting up shop.


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> I do not agree with the statement "was/is deeply irresponsible and hazardous and is unjustifiable". Mostly because this is the only way we have have to adopt in long run in anyway. We can not start shutting down everything every time some kind of virus emerges. I think we need to start accepting the fatalities and LIVE with it - not to shelter in bunkers. As far as I know Sweden is one of the few countries where the crisis has been actually intelligently managed(versus panic driven conflicting decision making). They close as little possible and as much as needed to maintain the spread.


it is about making decisions in a situation of uncertainty. At the beginning no one knew what we are dealing with, not much was known about the virus. Under such circumstances, I consider it deeply irresponsible to try to pursue a strategy of laissez-faire and herd immunity. It was a Russian roulette type strategy, that by the way did not work in the UK and NL. Why Sweden does not have more deaths is yet to be determined - BCG vaccination? 50% of Swedes live alone? etc.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Damn Panic
Pan Demic


----------



## DaveM

science said:


> That's nearly 60k that we know about. The actual numbers are surely bigger. We'll never know the real numbers, but we'll only really be able to make accurate estimations when it's over and we see how many people are alive compared to how many we would've expected to be alive without the virus.
> 
> Anyway, you're assuming that those lives are important, but from a conservative POV, what are those 60k lives worth? In the US, we choose to lose 80k people a year because we don't care as much about those lives as about the profits of private health insurers. We choose to kill thousands of people a year because we don't care as much about those lives as about the profits of corporate polluters. And so on with all kinds of policies. Everything comes down to what someone's life means to a powerful person's net worth, and the lives of most of the people that are dying do not do much for powerful people's net worth. So their very logical conclusion is that we should reopen society and let the inconvenient people die.


I get what you're saying. There's also another subject: lack of self-responsibility and self-control which kills thousands due to obesity (a major risk factor with the virus), smoking (another major risk factor), failure to get the flu and pneumonia vaccines, people buying obscenely large cars and trucks again which adds to pollution, people failing to exercise some simple money management (eg. emergency fund) so that they are better able to handle downturns.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

science said:


> That's nearly 60k that we know about. The actual numbers are surely bigger. We'll never know the real numbers, but we'll only really be able to make accurate estimations when it's over and we see how many people are alive compared to how many we would've expected to be alive without the virus.
> 
> Anyway, you're assuming that those lives are important, but from a conservative POV, what are those 60k lives worth? In the US, we choose to lose 80k people a year because we don't care as much about those lives as about the profits of private health insurers. We choose to kill thousands of people a year because we don't care as much about those lives as about the profits of corporate polluters. And so on with all kinds of policies. Everything comes down to what someone's life means to a powerful person's net worth, and the lives of most of the people that are dying do not do much for powerful people's net worth. *So their very logical conclusion is that we should reopen society and let the inconvenient people die*.


I can't take anybody seriously that really believes this is the way anybody thinks. I have a conservative POV. I don't want anybody to die. Quit acting as if only you care about others and anybody who dares to have different political ideas is simply a heartless *******. People are scared right now - conservative and otherwise - and they are scared not only that they might catch this virus and die, but that their way of life may be destroyed, that they may not have a job this time tomorrow, that they may not be able to provide for their family. And after going so long without contracting the virus, but seeing a real impact on their finances, in their minds the scales are tipping that way. That isn't because they are heartless, or are fine with other people dropping dead, and it has nothing to do with their philosophy regarding government taking more control over healthcare.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> it is about making decisions in a situation of uncertainty. At the beginning no one knew what we are dealing with, not much was known about the virus. Under such circumstances, I consider it deeply irresponsible to try to pursue a strategy of laissez-faire and herd immunity. It was a Russian roulette type strategy, that by the way did not work in the UK and NL. Why Sweden does not have more deaths is yet to be determined - BCG vaccination? 50% of Swedes live alone? etc.


Herd immunity was not the policy in the UK, though the government did spend time considering it.


----------



## Jacck

MacLeod said:


> Herd immunity was not the policy in the UK, though the government did spend time considering it.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Most of them are already gone in the U.S. The only ones left are in the small rural towns where the big chains don't bother setting up shop.


Yeah - they've been going away for a while now as online and large retail stores move in and increase. Most mom and pop places are typically restaurants.


----------



## pianozach

Radames said:


> Sweden story:
> https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/8452...-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says
> 
> Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach 'Herd Immunity' In May


At the present time "*Herd Immunity*" is merely an unproven theory in regards to COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2. There is NO EVIDENCE yet, that recovered COVID-19 patients develop immunity.

Yes, it's a valid theory, as other diseases DO work this way, like Polio and diptheria - that's why vaccines against these are effective. The WHO actually published a brief on Saturday which was quite clear that the idea that one-time infection can lead to immunity remains unproven and is thus unreliable as a foundation for the next phase of the world's response to the pandemic.

*"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."*

Yep, it's a good *bet*, but not foolproof, especially in the light of data reported from the world's early COVID-19 hot spots, such as South Korea and China, have shown that a growing number of recovered patients appear to have suffered a relapse of the disease.

While we DO know a bit about SARS-CoV-2, there's a great deal that we DON'T know, such as WHY 'recovered' patients are testing sometimes testing 'positive' again (It's unclear why this is occurring; is it a sign of a second infection, or perhaps a reactivation of the remaining virus in the body or the result of an inaccurate antibody test).



eljr said:


> i think it an excellent opportunity to start a small business.
> 
> existing businesses are folding leaving tremendous opportunity when a vaccine becomes common


Oh. Right. A vaccine.

Don't count on that.

Even if they discovered an effective vaccine TODAY, it would still be _at least_ 18 months before it is approved to the existing standards of certified 'effective and safe' vaccines.

And a vaccine is generally effective is the virus doesn't mutate. That's why the 'normal' flu shots are different every year . . . Most flu vaccines in the United States protect against four different flu viruses ("quadrivalent"); an influenza A (H1N1) virus, an influenza A (H3N2) virus, and two influenza B viruses. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) can also vary from season to season.

*The good news* is that they ARE already conducting trials, notably at Oxford 
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1665496/world


----------



## DaveM

Dr. Fauci has just reported that a placebo-controlled study of the drug, remdesivir, shows that it statistically reduced hospital stay and its use has trended towards reduced mortality.


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work


Find the government's published plan. No mention of herd immunity at all. As I said, there was much discussion about it, and much speculation in the press about it.

Here's a more interesting take on it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...ndemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/


----------



## KenOC

The Gilead trial results, clipped from the *CNBC online story*:
------------------------------------------------
The clinical trial involved 397 patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is "single-arm," meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn't receive the drug.

The study tracked two groups of patients who were hospitalized with Covid-19. One group received a 5-day treatment of remdesivir, while the other group took the drug for 10 days. The researchers said more than half of the patients in both treatment groups were discharged from the hospital within 14 days. They said 64.5% of the patients who received the shorter treatment course were discharged, compared with 53.8% of the group who were treated for 10 days.

"These data are encouraging as they indicate that patients who received a shorter, 5-day course of remdesivir experienced similar clinical improvement as patients who received a 10-day treatment course," said Aruna Subramanian, a lead investigator of the study.


----------



## Art Rock

From the main Dutch newspaper:

Good news: one of the candidate vaccines has successfully been tested on monkeys (no details).
Bad news: in many countries in Europe, children are found to have heart defects, possibly related to Corona.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> The Gilead trial results, clipped from the *CNBC online story*:
> ------------------------------------------------
> The clinical trial involved 397 patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is "single-arm," meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn't receive the drug.
> 
> The study tracked two groups of patients who were hospitalized with Covid-19. One group received a 5-day treatment of remdesivir, while the other group took the drug for 10 days. The researchers said more than half of the patients in both treatment groups were discharged from the hospital within 14 days. They said 64.5% of the patients who received the shorter treatment course were discharged, compared with 53.8% of the group who were treated for 10 days.
> 
> "These data are encouraging as they indicate that patients who received a shorter, 5-day course of remdesivir experienced similar clinical improvement as patients who received a 10-day treatment course," said Aruna Subramanian, a lead investigator of the study.


this is sloppy study design and sloppy reporting. I would at least expect a p value. The drug will unfortunately likely prove to be of not much value. If it were a "game changer", we would have already known about it by now. A another study in China has shown no benefit. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> this is sloppy study design and sloppy reporting. I would at least expect a p value. The drug will unfortunately likely prove to be of not much value. If it were a "game changer", we would have already known about it by now. A another study in China has shown no benefit.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html


Fauci gave p value, can't remember what it was. The drug is now going to be a standard treatment according to him. Not sure why you're so quick to call it sloppy. Do you expect all the carefully controlled parameters that are used in studies that take a year?


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> Fauci gave p value, can't remember what it was. The drug is now going to be a standard treatment according to him. Not sure why you're so quick to call it sloppy. Do you expect all the carefully controlled parameters that are used in studies that take a year?


why compare 5 and 10 day treatment? Do you really learn anything useful about the efficacy of the drug this way? 
Gilead cannot really be trusted to do their own trials. Some independent institution should do it. They might just be interested in raising their stock value. And the Trump administration is so full of conflicts of interests, that it cannot be trusted either. So I will wait for the result of the WHO trial. But if the drug really were a game changer, we would have already known about it sooner. If it has an effect, it is likely only small.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> why compare 5 and 10 day treatment? Do you really learn anything useful about the efficacy of the drug this way?
> Gilead cannot really be trusted to do their own trials. Some independent institution should do it. They might just be interested in raising their stock value. And the Trump administration is so full of conflicts of interests, that it cannot be trusted either. So I will wait for the result of the WHO trial. But if the drug really were a game changer, we would have already known about it sooner. If it has an effect, it is likely only small.


The trial apparently involved patients in several countries. Gilead wasn't controlling the studies. Is it new to you that drug companies fund most drug studies? In any event, Fauci has been the one demanding controlled studies and has discounted excitement over drugs such as hydroxychloroquine. There isn't any reason why someone like him would be impressed by the results of this study for no good reason. This drug isn't being touted as a cure, but as a drug having a positive effect on symptoms and time of hospitalization. The p value was 0.001.


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> The trial apparently involved patients in several countries. Gilead wasn't controlling the studies. Is it new to you that drug companies fund most drug studies? In any event, Fauci has been the one demanding controlled studies and has discounted excitement over drugs such as hydroxychloroquine. There isn't any reason why someone like him would be impressed by the results of this study for no good reason. This drug isn't being touted as a cure, but as a drug having a positive effect on symptoms and time of hospitalization. The p value was 0.001.


I know how these trial work, that is why I am sceptical. The companies finance the trials, the results are often biased, and practically useless medicaments are then touted as novel wonder cures to be sold. The companies invest huge amounts of money into promoting these cures, sometimes bordering on corruption of the prescribing physicians. Sometimes it takes years before it is discovered that the medicament is in fact useless. The medicaments are a huge for profit business

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/sep/14/french-doctors-drugs-useless-dangerous


----------



## KenOC

Here's an article describing the *several tests or trials* of remdesivir, which are being conducted by various groups. Gilead is donating the medicine for these trials. Sample: "The NIH study is the most rigorous test. It compares remdesivir to placebo infusions, and neither patients nor doctors know who is getting what until the end of the study. Besides the U.S., it's open in Japan, Korea and Singapore."


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> why compare 5 and 10 day treatment? Do you really learn anything useful about the efficacy of the drug this way?
> Gilead cannot really be trusted to do their own trials. Some independent institution should do it. They might just be interested in raising their stock value. And the Trump administration is so full of conflicts of interests, that it cannot be trusted either. So I will wait for the result of the WHO trial. But if the drug really were a game changer, we would have already known about it sooner. If it has an effect, it is likely only small.


Right - they are interested in a potential short-term jump in stocks against the possibility of massive lawsuits in the event it doesn't work and they pushed it. 
We are, of necessity, not going with the standard extremely onerous protocols that normally govern these, because there is a dire need to get something quickly. This isn't an ideal study - but neither is it complete crap.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> I know how these trial work, that is why I am sceptical. The companies finance the trials, the results are often biased, and practically useless medicaments are then touted as novel wonder cures to be sold. The companies invest huge amounts of money into promoting these cures, sometimes bordering on corruption of the prescribing physicians. Sometimes it takes years before it is discovered that the medicament is in fact useless. The medicaments are a huge for profit business
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/sep/14/french-doctors-drugs-useless-dangerous


In this period of bad news after bad news, I choose to see this as some of the first potentially real good news. You, on the other hand, if you happen to get hospitalized with the virus -and I very much hope you don't- will be able to tell the doctors, 'Don't give me any of that useless Gilead drug.'


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> I know how these trial work, that is why I am sceptical. The companies finance the trials, the results are often biased, and practically useless medicaments are then touted as novel wonder cures to be sold. The companies invest huge amounts of money into promoting these cures, sometimes bordering on corruption of the prescribing physicians. Sometimes it takes years before it is discovered that the medicament is in fact useless. The medicaments are a huge for profit business
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/sep/14/french-doctors-drugs-useless-dangerous


I can't find anything in English about the two doctors listed in that article - everything is in French, so I can't evaluate actual information about them. Still, I always am leery whenever a report describes their subjects as "two eminent medical specialists."

Sounds like you have more of an ideological ax to grind here as opposed to a specific issue with this particular trial.


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> why compare 5 and 10 day treatment? Do you really learn anything useful about the efficacy of the drug this way?


The study in question (managed out of the University of Chicago IIRC) probably wanted to get preliminary answers to at least two questions:

First, is the drug clinically effective? Although there is no control group, there are plenty of stats, I'd think, on how other patients with similarly severe symptoms fared with the standard treatment but without remdesivir. So those data, carefully qualified, can serve as a proxy for a control group.

Second, what is the safe dosage (duration of use in this case)? If the drug is used for a longer period, is it more effective? And, just as importantly, do undesirable side-effects increase in number or severity? Thus the splitting of the test into 5- and 10-day courses of treatment and the apparent happiness among researchers that the 5-day course seemed as effective as the 10-day course.


----------



## pianozach

This strain of coronavirus is brand spankin' new.

We DID have some inklings about this particular strain back in November, and knew it was a threat by the end of December.

It was predicted several years ago by scientists, and even prior to that by sci-fi authors.

But we haven't had but a serious couple of months to figure out the parameters of the pandemic, much less how the virus affects people and how to treat or prevent it.

The fact that there are already studies underway in China, the US, Britain and Germany (and elsewhere I'll bet) is a very good sign.


----------



## Art Rock

The USA has gone through the 60000 deaths mark (more than 25% of the world-wide deaths), which was predicted to be the total number of deaths by a model one or two weeks ago. That same model now predicts close to 73000 dead in the end, the majority before June. Just looking at the deaths per day graph, I can't see it flattening off as quickly as required to achieve that.

In Europe, the UK has overtaken Spain and will probably overtake Italy tomorrow in terms of fatalities. Eastern Europe is still doing far better than Western Europe.


----------



## Flamme

Im really interesteid in possibility of ''injecting'' of UV-Light into body...I c its not mere science fiction like many say...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> The study in question (managed out of the University of Chicago IIRC) probably wanted to get preliminary answers to at least two questions:
> 
> First, is the drug clinically effective? Although there is no control group, there are plenty of stats, I'd think, on how other patients with similarly severe symptoms fared with the standard treatment but without remdesivir. So those data, carefully qualified, can serve as a proxy for a control group.
> 
> Second, what is the safe dosage (duration of use in this case)? If the drug is used for a longer period, is it more effective? And, just as importantly, do undesirable side-effects increase in number or severity? Thus the splitting of the test into 5- and 10-day courses of treatment and the apparent happiness among researchers that the 5-day course seemed as effective as the 10-day course.


Agreed. 5 days instead of 10 and still being effective is huge - half the time of recovery, half the cost of the medicine, half the potential for toxicity in the patient. Why wouldn't you try to see if you can get good results with half the medicine? They will likely try and find the minimum dosage and regimen - less medicine over a shorter period of time means more likelihood of compliance by the patient and potentially better tolerance.


----------



## Flamme




----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> This strain of coronavirus is brand spankin' new.
> 
> We DID have some inklings about this particular strain back in November, and knew it was a threat by the end of December.
> 
> It was predicted several years ago by scientists, and even prior to that by sci-fi authors.
> 
> But we haven't had but a serious couple of months to figure out the parameters of the pandemic, much less how the virus affects people and how to treat or prevent it.
> 
> The fact that there are already studies underway in China, the US, Britain and Germany (and elsewhere I'll bet) is a very good sign.


Yes, but sci-fi authors also predicted we would be all in flying cars by this point and should have done at least two manned missions to Jupiter by now (in 2001 and 2010). Imagining a pandemic sometime in the future isn't particularly prescient - they have happened before.

Like I said, we didn't really have a notion about this particular strain, even as we initially started learning of it. We knew it was another coronavirus originating in China. The last one of those was scary, but ultimately only infected 8000 people worldwide and killed 800. The next coronavirus outbreak - MERS - had a much higher mortality rate, but ultimately infected even fewer people worldwide. We have had more deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in New York City alone than we had total cases of SARS and MERS combined, and most other coronavirus cause nothing more than mild cold symptoms, if anything at all. No - there wasn't really anything early on that told us this would be that bad, especially given that the Chinese were suppressing information about it.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> We DID have some inklings about this particular strain back in November, and knew it was a threat by the end of December.
> 
> It was predicted several years ago by scientists, and even prior to that by sci-fi authors.


Sources for any of these claims?


----------



## KenOC

*More *on the study:
----------------------------------------
The study, run by the National Institutes of Health, tested remdesivir versus usual care in 1,063 hospitalized coronavirus patients around the world. At the White House, NIH's Dr. Anthony Fauci said the drug reduced the time it takes patients to recover by 31% - 11 days on average versus 15 days for those just given usual care.

He also said there was a trend toward fewer deaths among those on remdesivir, and that full results would soon be published in a medical journal.

"What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus," Fauci said. "This will be the standard of care."
----------------------------------------
Gilead is running some controlled trials of its own and reports similar results. It also says that "no new safety problems" have been noted.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


>


https://www.forbes.com/sites/brittm...rapy-charlatans-medical-devices/#448582f82c5d

A somewhat suspect therapy.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> *More *on the study:
> ----------------------------------------
> The study, run by the National Institutes of Health, tested remdesivir versus usual care in 1,063 hospitalized coronavirus patients around the world. At the White House, NIH's Dr. Anthony Fauci said the drug reduced the time it takes patients to recover by 31% - 11 days on average versus 15 days for those just given usual care.
> 
> He also said there was a trend toward fewer deaths among those on remdesivir, and that full results would soon be published in a medical journal.
> 
> "What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus," Fauci said. "This will be the standard of care."
> ----------------------------------------
> Gilead is running some controlled trials of its own and reports similar results. It also says that "no new safety problems" have been noted.


yes, this is looks more encouraging. That "there is a trend towards" is a jargon for the fact that the p values is closer to 0.05, but not under 0.05. So it likely does work to some extent


----------



## Flamme

Chinese state media and bots claim that the zero patient was from the US and that coronavirus started in american nursing homes as early as septembner...


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> yes, this is looks more encouraging. That "there is a trend towards" is a jargon for the fact that the p values is closer to 0.05, but not under 0.05. So it likely does work to some extent


The p value was 0.001.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Still, I always am leery whenever a report describes their subjects as "two eminent medical specialists."


It's better than 'two medical specialists of ill repute'!


----------



## KenOC

A while back there were some YouTube posts on the coronavirus by a doctor. In each he introduced himself in grandiose terms. Arrayed in the scene were the tools of his trade, his diplomas and certifications, and his book, to which he referred proudly.

The book was, however, on the subject of his medical specialty – weight loss.


----------



## Guest

Flamme said:


> Chinese state media and bots claim that the zero patient was from the US and that coronavirus started in american nursing homes as early as septembner...


And we're giving how much credence to this version of events?


----------



## Guest

I know this is a very important thread on the forum but may I make a small tangent?
Here is an article from *The Guardian* about English Renaissance composer *William Byrd* and how he wrote some of his most exquisite music whilst in *lockdown* some 400 years ago:
*https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/apr/28/singing-in-secret-william-byrd-isolation*


----------



## Guest

MacLeod said:


> Find the government's published plan. No mention of herd immunity at all. As I said, there was much discussion about it, and much speculation in the press about it.
> 
> Here's a more interesting take on it.
> 
> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...ndemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/


However, this extended article by The Guardian is clear that the government spent too long contemplating possible strategies, including herd immunity, and at least a fortnight was lost when firmer action should have been taken.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...side-story-of-uk-covid-19-coronavirus-crisis?


----------



## KenOC

Another bit of data on the new study, from a *BBC News article*:

"The impact on deaths is not as clear cut. The mortality rate was 8% in people given remdesivir and 11.6% in those given a placebo, but this result was not statistically significant, meaning scientists cannot tell if the difference is real."


----------



## KenOC

MacLeod said:


> However, this extended article by The Guardian is clear that the government spent too long contemplating possible strategies, including herd immunity, and at least a fortnight was lost when firmer action should have been taken.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...side-story-of-uk-covid-19-coronavirus-crisis?


And why wasn't The Guardian ringing the alarm bell while our incompetent governments were doing nothing? This pandemic has resulted in more Monday morning quarterbacking than I have seen in my life! Things are almost always clearer in the rear-view mirror. :lol:


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> And why wasn't The Guardian ringing the alarm bell while our incompetent governments were doing nothing? This pandemic has resulted in more Monday morning quarterbacking than I have seen in my life! Things are almost always clearer in the rear-view mirror. :lol:


For "The Guardian" it's always a glass half empty; that and endless grievance. Wash, rinse, repeat.


----------



## DaveM

Fauci described the effect of remdesivir on reducing length of hospitalization or speeding up recovery as a ‘clear cut, significant, positive effect’. The trend was towards reduced mortality, but not statistically significant. However, the data is only up to this point since the doctors wanted to make the positive effects public early so that remdesivir can be considered as a standard treatment before the end of the study. Researchers are hopeful the trend towards reduced mortality will improve to statistically significant in the next few weeks.

Also, remdesivir may be even more effective if started earlier and/or with adjustment of dosage and length of treatment.


----------



## Bigbang

KenOC said:


> A while back there were some YouTube posts on the coronavirus by a doctor. In each he introduced himself in grandiose terms. Arrayed in the scene were the tools of his trade, his diplomas and certifications, and his book, to which he referred proudly.
> 
> The book was, however, on the subject of his medical specialty - weight loss.


I remember one doctor as you say and whenever disaster strikes people take advantage of the chance to promote themselves. I prefer to listen to CDC doctors and those on the front lines.


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> This strain of coronavirus is brand spankin' new.
> 
> We DID have some inklings about this particular strain back in November, and knew it was a threat by the end of December.
> 
> It was predicted several years ago by scientists, and even prior to that by sci-fi authors.
> 
> But we haven't had but a serious couple of months to figure out the parameters of the pandemic, much less how the virus affects people and how to treat or prevent it.
> 
> The fact that there are already studies underway in China, the US, Britain and Germany (and elsewhere I'll bet) is a very good sign.





MacLeod said:


> Sources for any of these claims?


How about this CNN article from April 9?

*US intelligence agencies started tracking coronavirus outbreak in China as early as November
*

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/intel-agencies-covid-november/index.html

. . . or from ABC News the day before, on April 8

*Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: Sources*
"*Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," a source said.*

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/int...isis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

As for December, here's a spurious news source, CCN (CryptoCoinsNews). I don't know what their biases may be, but read the article and decide whether it's valid.

*China, U.S. Discussed Coronavirus Threat in December - and Failed Us All*

https://www.ccn.com/china-u-s-discussed-coronavirus-threat-in-december-and-failed-us-all/


----------



## KenOC

Sorry, same old garbage reporting discussed here previously and based entirely (the first two articles) on anonymous sources. The reports refer to a November NCMI report but nobody has seen such a report or can quote from it. In reality, the latest estimate is that China’s “patient zero” became infected about December 1.

Here’s what the NCMI has to say.

‘… the Defense Department provided a statement from Col. R. Shane Day, Director of the NCMI. "As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters. However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists," the statement said.’

The third article is probably accurate and describes failures of both the US and Chinese governments at the end of December and early January.


----------



## Bigbang

Sad Al said:


> There won't be a vaccine. Never. There won't be 2021 Tokyo Olympics or any other Olympic circuses. Nevermore! - as Edgar Allan Poe put it. We're dealing with coronavirus, literally the virus who wears a crown. The King virus! The smart virus. It isn't a conspiracy but a new better, way smarter lifeform that evolution has produced. Let's face it: COVID-19 is the Second Coming. You know what I mean, I saw a COVID-19 patient standing there.


Not sure the concern about the "return" of the virus by scientists is necessarily tied to seasonal timing but other factors but they keep stressing over and over there is a lot we do not know. Yes, no vaccine, maybe not need one as the virus may find another host or simply die off. Perhaps the gods are directing the virus for the sake of past, present, and future. Yes, actually I am feeling mighty confidant that this virus might retreat into silence even before a vaccine can be developed. However it is always good to heed the messages hidden in these situations and be ready for the next one, perhaps 10, 20, 50, 100 years hence. We share a space with all life so it is best that we do not get arrogant and demand unlimited resources from other life forms or else the prophecies may come to pass.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bigbang said:


> I remember one doctor as you say and whenever disaster strikes people take advantage of the chance to promote themselves. I prefer to listen to CDC doctors and those on the front lines.


After then screwing the pooch on the tests early, I'm looking to scientists other than at the CDC.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> And why wasn't The Guardian ringing the alarm bell while our incompetent governments were doing nothing? This pandemic has resulted in more Monday morning quarterbacking than I have seen in my life! Things are almost always clearer in the rear-view mirror. :lol:


It's not my job or yours to know how to handle situations like this, but there are people whose job it is, and for them there can be no excuses. Some countries have dealt with this very well, and the people who made the decisions enabling them to do so deserve praise. (Remember when you were crowing about how many people in South Korea were dying of this? How's that look now?)

On the other hand, the people who made the decisions leading to tragic results in other countries deserve criticism.


----------



## Open Book

science said:


> It's not my job or yours to know how to handle situations like this, but there are people whose job it is, and for them there can be no excuses. Some countries have dealt with this very well, and the people who made the decisions enabling them to do so deserve praise. (Remember when you were crowing about how many people in South Korea were dying of this? How's that look now?)
> 
> On the other hand, the people who made the decisions leading to tragic results in other countries deserve criticism.


It's far too early to tell how effective any country has been in dealing with this. Every country has different circumstances and a lot of efforts to combat the virus involve educated guesswork. I feel sorry for all political leaders who have to deal with this.


----------



## science

Open Book said:


> I feel sorry for all political leaders who have to deal with this.


If they decide they don't love their power and privilege anymore, they can give them up any time. I'll save my sorrow for the people suffering, dying, and the healthcare professionals trying to help them.



Open Book said:


> Every country has different circumstances and a lot of efforts to combat the virus involve educated guesswork.


Sure, and the people who guessed right deserve credit, while the people who guessed wrong -- or just brazenly refused to do anything -- deserve blame.

That's how the world has to work. Sometimes you get criticized for not trying, sometimes you get criticized for not succeeding. For decades now I've had "personal responsibility" shoved down my throat by people arguing that the working class deserve their suffering because they and/or their ancestors made bad decisions and/or had bad luck. Fine, I guess, but it goes both ways.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> ...Remember when you were crowing about how many people in South Korea were dying of this? How's that look now?


I find that insulting and moreover untrue. Please cite your source, or apologize if you have the grace to do that.


----------



## tdc

So, Laura Birx has admitted anyone who dies with covid-19 gets labelled a covid death regardless of whether they were in the hospital for other life threatening problems like heart disease, cancer or anything else...hmm...talk about padding the numbers? Further, hospitals receive more money from the government when they have a patient that dies from covid-19, than when they have a patient that dies from anything else, like say pneumonia. Do you see how this could create a problem in getting reliable data? Further many of these covid deaths are labelled so on merely observing some vague symptoms, not even from an actual test result.

Think about this. Now think about the fact that all the drastic changes to society you see around you are based on these far fetched models and padded numbers. 

Scare tactics like using photos of mass graves in New York (even though this place has been used as a place for mass graves for decades), and actually changing how data is collected, are major red flags, it should be clear to more people this is an utter scam and there are ulterior motives. 

And we are supposed to now worship these automaton health workers, many of which have virtually no capability for independent thought and are drug and vaccine pushers for big pharma? (I know there are many highly intelligent and good heath care professionals questioning this scam right now), sadly it seems as though the majority of health care workers are as moronic and corrupt as society at large, and are far from heroic. They do what they are told for a pay check, that's it, that's all, folks. 

Time to indict the WHO, the CDC, the mainstream media, Bill and Melinda Gates and other perpetrators of this hoax. That is what it is, and this should not be tolerated any longer. Millions could starve as a result of the shutting down of our economy and our rights be forever stripped away. Time to wake up folks. This situation is not good. It is about changing society in ways a very few sick and evil people want, and no, it doesn't have anything to do with saving the environment or getting people off the hamster wheel, if they wanted that it could have been done a long time ago. It has to do with depopulation, and control over people, they want vaccines to weaken and damage immune systems and they want to place microchips in people to ensure all can be surveilled and tracked at all times. They want a cashless society so dissenters can have their money shut off at anytime by a centralized force. This is not a theory, this information is all out there for those who are willing to research these topics. These people put what they are doing right out in the open because that way the karmic responsibility falls heavily on those of us who follow their orders, and less on the perpetrators. That is a spiritual law. 

I am not pro Trump I wish he was not the president because he is just a distraction and the media is trying to spin it that anyone who disagrees with them is pro Trump and racist. Give me a break, that is so very dumb. The politicians you see on TV like Trump have very little real power, they are just puppets. There is a permanent government behind them regardless of who gets elected. The politicians are just there to divide people, that is why Trump was selected, he is a very polarizing character. But look how little power he even has in this situation, he is getting railroaded by unelected technocrats like those in silicon valley and Bill Gates. 

The people complying with this situation and encouraging others to do so are the biggest problem with this world right now.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> I find that insulting and moreover untrue. Please cite your source, or apologize if you have the grace to do that.


The death rate was falling every day, had fallen bellow 3% as the recovery rate increasing, but you refused to acknowledge it, refusing to acknowledge that the numbers were cumulative. Feel free to tell us why you did that.

Is it because you didn't want people who did well to get credit, as now you don't want people who've done badly to get blamed?


----------



## science

tdc said:


> So, Laura Birx has admitted anyone who dies with covid-19 gets labelled a covid death regardless of whether they were in the hospital for other life threatening problems like heart disease, cancer or anything else...hmm...talk about padding the numbers? Further, hospitals receive more money from the government when they have a patient that dies from covid-19, than when they have a patient that dies from anything else, like say pneumonia. Do you see how this could create a problem in getting reliable data? Further many of these covid deaths are labelled so on merely observing some vague symptoms, not even from an actual test result.
> 
> Think about this. Now think about the fact that all the drastic changes to society you see around you are based on these far fetched models and padded numbers.
> 
> Scare tactics like using photos of mass graves in New York (even though this place has been used as a place for mass graves for decades), and actually changing how data is collected, are major red flags, it should be clear to more people this is an utter scam and there are ulterior motives.
> 
> And we are supposed to now worship these automaton health workers, many of which have virtually no capability for independent thought and are drug and vaccine pushers for big pharma? (I know there are many highly intelligent and good heath care professionals questioning this scam right now), sadly it seems as though the majority of health care workers are as moronic and corrupt as society at large, and are far from heroic. They do what they are told for a pay check, that's it, that's all, folks.
> 
> Time to indict the WHO, the CDC, the mainstream media, Bill and Melinda Gates and other perpetrators of this hoax. That is what it is, and this should not be tolerated any longer. Millions could starve as a result of the shutting down of our economy and our rights be forever stripped away. Time to wake up folks. This situation is not good. It is about changing society in ways a very few sick and evil people want, and no, it doesn't have anything to do with saving the environment or getting people off the hamster wheel, if they wanted that it could have been done a long time ago. It has to do with depopulation, and control over people, they want vaccines to weaken and damage immune systems and they want to place microchips in people to ensure all can be surveilled and tracked at all times. They want a cashless society so dissenters can have their money shut off at anytime by a centralized force. This is not a theory, this information is all out there for those who are willing to research these topics. These people put what they are doing right out in the open because that way the karmic responsibility falls heavily on those of us who follow their orders, and less on the perpetrators. That is a spiritual law.
> 
> I am not pro Trump I wish he was not the president because he is just a distraction and the media is trying to spin it that anyone who disagrees with them is pro Trump and racist. Give me a break, that is so very dumb. The politicians you see on TV like Trump have very little real power, they are just puppets. There is a permanent government behind them regardless of who gets elected. The politicians are just there to divide people, that is why Trump was selected, he is a very polarizing character. But look how little power he even has in this situation, he is getting railroaded by unelected technocrats like those in silicon valley and Bill Gates.
> 
> The people complying with this situation and encouraging others to do so are the biggest problem with this world right now.


As a rule of thumb, if you disagree with all the people who know the most about something, you're unlikely to be correct.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> The death rate was falling every day, had fallen bellow 3% as the recovery rate increasing, but you refused to acknowledge it, refusing to acknowledge that the numbers were cumulative. Feel free to tell us why you did that.
> 
> Is it because you didn't want people who did well to get credit, as now you don't want people who've done badly to get blamed?


Your post makes no sense. Again, please cite your source (post # would be good), or apologize if you have the grace to do that.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> Your post makes no sense. Again, please cite your source (post # would be good), or apologize if you have the grace to do that.


I'm not digging back through the thread. I'm sure you remember the conversation as well as I do.

Maybe you can get me in a little trouble with the mods, but I'm sure I haven't insulted you.

How about you apologize to me for calling me a Maoist because I criticized Kissinger?

Meanwhile, how about you recognize that some countries have been able to respond well to this and maybe the rest of us can learn something from them instead of pretending that no one could have done anything differently.


----------



## DaveM

tdc said:


> So, Laura Birx has admitted anyone who dies with covid-19 gets labelled a covid death regardless of whether they were in the hospital for other life threatening problems like heart disease, cancer or anything else...hmm...talk about padding the numbers? Further, hospitals receive more money from the government when they have a patient that dies from covid-19, than when they have a patient that dies from anything else, like say pneumonia. Do you see how this could create a problem in getting reliable data? Further many of these covid deaths are labelled so on merely observing some vague symptoms, not even from an actual test result.
> 
> Think about this. Now think about the fact that all the drastic changes to society you see around you are based on these far fetched models and padded numbers.
> 
> Scare tactics like using photos of mass graves in New York (even though this place has been used as a place for mass graves for decades), and actually changing how data is collected, are major red flags, it should be clear to more people this is an utter scam and there are ulterior motives.
> 
> And we are supposed to now worship these automaton health workers, many of which have virtually no capability for independent thought and are drug and vaccine pushers for big pharma? (I know there are many highly intelligent and good heath care professionals questioning this scam right now), sadly it seems as though the majority of health care workers are as moronic and corrupt as society at large, and are far from heroic. They do what they are told for a pay check, that's it, that's all, folks.
> 
> Time to indict the WHO, the CDC, the mainstream media, Bill and Melinda Gates and other perpetrators of this hoax. That is what it is, and this should not be tolerated any longer. Millions could starve as a result of the shutting down of our economy and our rights be forever stripped away. Time to wake up folks. This situation is not good. It is about changing society in ways a very few sick and evil people want, and no, it doesn't have anything to do with saving the environment or getting people off the hamster wheel, if they wanted that it could have been done a long time ago. It has to do with depopulation, and control over people, they want vaccines to weaken and damage immune systems and they want to place microchips in people to ensure all can be surveilled and tracked at all times. They want a cashless society so dissenters can have their money shut off at anytime by a centralized force. This is not a theory, this information is all out there for those who are willing to research these topics. These people put what they are doing right out in the open because that way the karmic responsibility falls heavily on those of us who follow their orders, and less on the perpetrators. That is a spiritual law.
> 
> I am not pro Trump I wish he was not the president because he is just a distraction and the media is trying to spin it that anyone who disagrees with them is pro Trump and racist. Give me a break, that is so very dumb. The politicians you see on TV like Trump have very little real power, they are just puppets. There is a permanent government behind them regardless of who gets elected. The politicians are just there to divide people, that is why Trump was selected, he is a very polarizing character. But look how little power he even has in this situation, he is getting railroaded by unelected technocrats like those in silicon valley and Bill Gates.
> 
> The people complying with this situation and encouraging others to do so are the biggest problem with this world right now.


You missed your calling. There's a great fiction novel inside you just dying to get out.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> I'm not digging back through the thread. I'm sure you remember the conversation as well as I do.
> 
> Maybe you can get me in a little trouble with the mods, but I'm sure I haven't insulted you.
> 
> How about you apologize to me for calling me a Maoist because I criticized Kissinger?
> 
> Meanwhile, how about you recognize that some countries have been able to respond well to this and maybe the rest of us can learn something from them instead of pretending that no one could have done anything differently.


WHAT??? This gets more and more bizarre. I'm certainly not going to report you, but hope that you can keep your dysfunctions to yourself. And again, an apology is in order for the calumny you have cast upon me. Have you no sense of shame?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

tdc said:


> So, Laura Birx has admitted anyone who dies with covid-19 gets labelled a covid death regardless of whether they were in the hospital for other life threatening problems like heart disease, cancer or anything else...hmm...talk about padding the numbers? Further, hospitals receive more money from the government when they have a patient that dies from covid-19, than when they have a patient that dies from anything else, like say pneumonia. Do you see how this could create a problem in getting reliable data? Further many of these covid deaths are labelled so on merely observing some vague symptoms, not even from an actual test result.
> 
> Think about this. Now think about the fact that all the drastic changes to society you see around you are based on these far fetched models and padded numbers.
> 
> Scare tactics like using photos of mass graves in New York (even though this place has been used as a place for mass graves for decades), and actually changing how data is collected, are major red flags, it should be clear to more people this is an utter scam and there are ulterior motives.
> 
> And we are supposed to now worship these automaton health workers, many of which have virtually no capability for independent thought and are drug and vaccine pushers for big pharma? (I know there are many highly intelligent and good heath care professionals questioning this scam right now), sadly it seems as though the majority of health care workers are as moronic and corrupt as society at large, and are far from heroic. They do what they are told for a pay check, that's it, that's all, folks.
> 
> Time to indict the WHO, the CDC, the mainstream media, Bill and Melinda Gates and other perpetrators of this hoax. That is what it is, and this should not be tolerated any longer. Millions could starve as a result of the shutting down of our economy and our rights be forever stripped away. Time to wake up folks. This situation is not good. It is about changing society in ways a very few sick and evil people want, and no, it doesn't have anything to do with saving the environment or getting people off the hamster wheel, if they wanted that it could have been done a long time ago. It has to do with depopulation, and control over people, they want vaccines to weaken and damage immune systems and they want to place microchips in people to ensure all can be surveilled and tracked at all times. They want a cashless society so dissenters can have their money shut off at anytime by a centralized force. This is not a theory, this information is all out there for those who are willing to research these topics. These people put what they are doing right out in the open because that way the karmic responsibility falls heavily on those of us who follow their orders, and less on the perpetrators. That is a spiritual law.
> 
> I am not pro Trump I wish he was not the president because he is just a distraction and the media is trying to spin it that anyone who disagrees with them is pro Trump and racist. Give me a break, that is so very dumb. The politicians you see on TV like Trump have very little real power, they are just puppets. There is a permanent government behind them regardless of who gets elected. The politicians are just there to divide people, that is why Trump was selected, he is a very polarizing character. But look how little power he even has in this situation, he is getting railroaded by unelected technocrats like those in silicon valley and Bill Gates.
> 
> The people complying with this situation and encouraging others to do so are the biggest problem with this world right now.


It's that damned Pentavirate, at it again!


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> How about this CNN article from April 9?


As KenOC said, the CNN reports are thin, and from about unnamed sources still only goes back to November. Even if true, I doubt that any president would have taken early action to prevent an unnamed and unquantified virus coming to the US.

But you also said, "It was predicted several years ago by scientists, and even prior to that by sci-fi authors." Assuming 'It' means Covid 19 and not just the prospect of a plague - care to elaborate?


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> And why wasn't The Guardian ringing the alarm bell while our incompetent governments were doing nothing? This pandemic has resulted in more Monday morning quarterbacking than I have seen in my life! Things are almost always clearer in the rear-view mirror. :lol:


What kind of alarm bell would you have liked them to ring...and when?

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...the-uks-coronavirus-plan-sensible-but-belated

And its sister paper, The Observer...

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ew-on-restricting-spread-of-coronavirus-in-uk

Besides, this is about what the _government already knew _- not what we all know now, and not what the press knew then. I don't think anyone is claiming that more should have been done back in January - but by the beginning of March, the government had already published its plan (3 March) but didn't make the lockdown official until March 23. That's almost 3 weeks

Delaying necessary measures for three weeks - how much did the virus spread in that time, I wonder?


----------



## Jacck

MacLeod said:


> As KenOC said, the CNN reports are thin, and from about unnamed sources still only goes back to November. Even if true, I doubt that any president would have taken early action to prevent an unnamed and unquantified virus coming to the US.
> 
> But you also said, "It was predicted several years ago by scientists, and even prior to that by sci-fi authors." Assuming 'It' means Covid 19 and not just the prospect of a plague - care to elaborate?


if you read this forum from the beginning, it was clear even to us here back in february and early march, that a potentially dangerous virus is coming. Trump no doubt got enough warnings from intelligence agencies about a possible pandemic. But given how dumb he is (wanting to inject UV light), he did not even have a clue what a pandemic was, so did nothing. Every other president would assemble experts in the field and heeded their advice. Trump of course believes that he is a genius who knows more about everything than all the experts. I am sure there would be less American casualties with any other president in the office. 
BTW, google his own tweets how he criticized Obama for the Ebola response, where 2 Americans died.


----------



## DaveM

A study published in March 2019 anticipated another coronavirus epidemic/pandemic:

'_Thus, it is highly likely that future SARS- or MERS-like coronavirus outbreaks will originate from bats, and there is an increased probability that this will occur in China'_

It is easily found with a simple Google search.

Virus-based pandemics as a risk in the near future have been warned about by a number of people going back at least 14 years. Warnings in general before that have been written in books about the great 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Any inference that because they didn't specifically mention coronavirus they don't count is pointless.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Who doesn't like a good Nostradamus prediction?

Look - scientists, especially those that study infectious diseases, are always predicting such things. And statistically, the chances of them eventually being right is very high because over the course of history there are plenty of examples. We had a brief pause maybe once they really had smallpox contained, Polio seemingly following suit, and other great vaccines kicking in, where they thought we were finally done with disease. Then HIV came along and disabused them of that notion.

2 new coronavirus outbreaks in a relatively short period of time - yeah, it probably was a really safe prediction to make that there would be more. And given what they knew about bats carrying such viruses, that was also a safe bet (by the way, have they ever really identified the source animal? Is it bats or pangolins?).

But notice that prediction, "future SARS- or MERS-like *outbreaks*." That isn't a prediction of a planet-crippling pandemic. It is a prediction of an outbreak, likely anticipated to be similar to SARS or MERS. No government in its right mind would shut down to the levels we have based on news that another SARS-like virus has sprung up, not when the last one infected less than 10,000 people worldwide, and killed less than 1000.

So yes, I'm sure you all knew full well that we needed to cripple our economies the second we heard of any new virus coming out of China, but we can't all be that brilliant.


----------



## DaveM

^^^ Some were making it sound like there were no warnings of a specific coronavirus outbreak. I provided evidence that there was. It is a sign of desperation to diminish it by focusing on the semantics of the word 'outbreak'.

The White House's National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense office formed by the Obama administration in 2014 after the Ebola outbreak was shut down by the Trump administration (apparently by John Bolton with the knowledge of Trump). At the time of its formation, Obama specifically warned of the danger of future virus outbreaks. The officials who manned that office have stated that their specific mandate was to be an early-warning system for an outbreak that endangered the nation.

I don't think anyone is expecting that this bad a pandemic should have been expected starting in January, but anyone who thinks that shutting down that office didn't limit our readiness is deluding themselves.


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> So yes, *I'm sure you all knew full well *that we needed to cripple our economies the second we heard of any new virus coming out of China, but we can't all be that brilliant.


I'm claiming nothing of the sort. As I said in my last post, I'm noting that the UK government paid insufficient attention in the early stages (distracted by Brexit and widespread flooding) and then, despite being given clear signals of the likely spread and the potential for 250,000 to 500,000 fatalities, chose a staged approach to its measures instead of implementing something stricter.

Paper from one of the science teams directly advising the government:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ment-on-2019-novel-coronavirus-_covid-19_.pdf

Oh, and just for good measure, the kind of advance preparation that good government might do to anticipate a pandemic took place in the UK in 2016. None of the governments in power (all Conservative) did anything in response. Even its own pet newspaper, The Telegraph, is reported to have said that "the results were too terrifying to publish" and one of our leading ministers, Michael Gove, confessed this week that he hadn't read it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Cygnus


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> So yes, I'm sure you all knew full well that we needed to cripple our economies the second we heard of any new virus coming out of China, but we can't all be that brilliant.


this is a straw man. There was no need to "cripple our economies the second we heard of any new virus coming", but much more could have been done in terms of preparedness, especially in the area of testing and PPE equipment. Competent response teams could have been assembled (not Dr. Ivanka and Prof. Kushner)


----------



## Jacck

Europe's Moment of Truth
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/europes-moment-of-truth/
I wonder if the eurozone or even EU will survive this crisis. There seemed to be an west-east split concerning migration policy, but there is potentially even a more dangerous north-south split concerning economics.


----------



## Sad Al

Evolution is the way Nature does its product development. Covid 19 is the Bat-virus i.e. the Joker who is the arch-enemy of Batmen, i.e. humans. [Jungian trinity vs. quaternity. ]

Covid 19 arrived simultaneously with the Joker movie. Just a coincidence!?


----------



## Sad Al

I mean (déjà vu kicks in strongly right now)


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> this is a straw man. There was no need to "cripple our economies the second we heard of any new virus coming", but much more could have been done in terms of preparedness, especially in the area of testing and PPE equipment. Competent response teams could have been assembled (not Dr. Ivanka and Prof. Kushner)


I've asked this before - how much is enough PPE? How much do you store away, when normally we have plenty?

And I'm not going to argue the Trump administration had the perfect response. I think they screwed a lot up. And I wish his daughter would just go back to selling clothes.

But again, I don't buy this ****** line that "Oh, Obama knew, and Obama had us prepared, if only that dastardly Trump hadn't dismantled all of Obama's prescient, nay, prophetic programs!"

Nobody knew, and the entire planet was caught flat-footed. South Korea did particularly well, but the things they did, nobody here is advocating - like significantly reducing the red tape and regulations for private companies to get tests out quickly. You all are focusing on PPE. But South Korea got ahead of the curve because they had lots and lots of tests available really quickly, because they dropped the usually onerous regulations that normally result in new tests taking forever to get to market. So they harnessed the power of their biotech and pharmaceutical industries early. In contrast, the U.S. followed protocol and awaited the tests from the CDC - who totally screwed the pooch. Again - we were following the protocols in place to handle such an outbreak, rather than get in front of the problem. Apparently the CDC - you know, the scientists paid to worry about major outbreaks and pandemics - didn't think this was critical enough to even follow standard protocols and make sure the damned test kits were not contaminated. So leaving it all up to the government significantly screwed us. It wasn't until after that that we started following the example of South Korea and fast tracked testing kits from private companies.

Then there is the other problematic thing - places like South Korea, and other areas that quickly responded also instituted a lot of measures that just aren't possible in the U.S. Government tracking your every move if you test positive and invading your privacy? Right - if you think people were up in arms when they thought the Bush administration was tracking what you checked out from the library when we all thought another terrorist attack was imminent, what do you think they would do if Hitler-reincarnate, that evil Trump who stole the election by colluding with the Russians, was tracking your every step! Or better yet, sealing you in your home (like the Chinese did) until the government deems you are no longer a threat. Yeah - that would go over so well.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda. Unprecedented events are really hard to prepare for, and when they happen, they always reveal inadequacies in the system - because there always are inadequacies in the system.


----------



## Roger Knox

DaveM: "It is a sign of desperation to diminish it by focusing on the semantics of the word ‘outbreak.' ’" 

McLeod: "I'm claiming nothing of the sort."

Jaack: "...this is a straw man."

Dreadful as the coronvirus is, I'm very heartened to see today's TalkClassical messages that confront distortion.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> ^^^ Some were making it sound like there were no warnings of a specific coronavirus outbreak. I provided evidence that there was. It is a sign of desperation to diminish it by focusing on the semantics of the word 'outbreak'.


I do no such thing. But we are talking about science here - don't they tend to be very specific in their word choice? If they thought a SARS/MERS-like virus was likely to cause the next pandemic, would they not have said pandemic rather than outbreak? I mean, they choose specific words for a reason - as I remember, it was a huge deal when the WHO upgraded COVID-19 from an outbreak to a pandemic. So no - I don't think I'm focusing on semantics. I stand by what I said - scientists that there would be more outbreaks of coronaviruses, most likely from China, most likely originating in bats - because there have been groups searching for these since the SARS outbreak and they have found literally thousands! But they weren't claiming that they would cause a global pandemic (sorry - I know that is redundant, pandemics, by definition, are global).


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Nobody knew, and the entire planet was caught flat-footed.


A) See my previous post referencing Operation Cygnus. We didn't "know", but the whole point was to be prepared for a pandemic, not an outbreak. As a public sector employee, I had to attend workshops to help the council prepare its business continuity plans in the event of a bird flu pandemic.

I worry that we wouldn't be prepared for the unprecedented nuclear attack - or, alternatively, you can bet your bottom dollar that the military are precisely prepared for such an eventuality.

B) Yes, many were caught flat-footed, but that doesn't excuse those countries who could have learned more quickly from the misfortunes of others. The UK government trumpets that it acted "according to the science" and only implemented measures "at the right time". Only history will tell us what we (in the UK and elsewhere) got right.


----------



## Sad Al

Blah blah blah. Enter the Kings. The Four Zoas. The Four Horsemen that St. John of Patmos and Albrecht Durer and Raphael raved about... Take notice of the perspective... they're so much above you...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Sad Al said:


> Blah blah blah. Enter the Kings. The Four Zoas. The Four Horsemen that St. John of Patmos and Albrecht Durer and Raphael raved about... Take notice of the perspective... they're so much above you...


You are such a useful contributor to this thread!


----------



## science

Our response to the virus isn't some exceptional failure: it merely exemplifies our attitudes to each other's lives. We the people of the United States of America - I know that not everyone here is from the USA but I am and I'm speaking as one of us - have chosen to build a society in which many people cannot afford to get treated for basic illnesses, rendering us more vulnerable to diseases like this. We didn't make this decision merely in January or February of this year: we've made it repeatedly over the past century because we do not collectively care enough about the people whose lives could be improved or saved to change our system. We could save 80,000 lives per year and $2 billion over ten years with a program like "Medicare for all," but over the past few weeks we've again chosen not to do anything like that. Some of the opposition to universal healthcare is probably due to racism, classism, and homophobia (going back to our national apathy to AIDS in the 1980s), but collectively we have higher priorities, such as boosting the profits of big pharma and corporate insurers.

Over the past few years in particular, though, our national attitude led us to make lots of decisions that enabled us to exacerbate the suffering caused by COVID-19. For example, we have chosen not to staff many key public health positions. We have shut down or drastically reduced institutions that had been responsible for paying attention to global health crises for us, such as the global health section of the CDC and the global health security section of the NSC.

The OP of this thread came on January 24, suggesting that by then even ordinary citizens knew enough to be interested in whether COVID-19 would be dangerous, but we the people of the USA chose not to prepare for it. In fact, two weeks before the OP of this thread, China released the genetic sequence of the virus, enabling anyone to begin making tests, and one week later, the first tests were developed in Germany. The US, of course, refused to use those tests, just because.

Both the USA and South Korea had reported their first cases four days before the OP (on January 20), and both countries confirmed their second case the day of this thread's OP. Three days later (Jan 27, when there were four known cases in South Korea), South Korean public health officials met with the leaders of over 20 medical companies to develop fast testing. As a result, within a month of the OP of this thread, South Korea was testing over 10,000 people per day. Apparently they cared enough about each other to incentivize their government officials to do something like that.

By contrast, we Americans, represented by our elected leader Donald Trump, announced on February 26 that "within a couple of days [the number of Americans with coronavirus] is going to be down to close to zero." We knew that was a lie, but we enjoyed the lie. Two weeks later, at the peak of the outbreak in South Korea, they were testing nearly 20,ooo people per day. At that point (March 8), the USA had only done 2000 tests _total_ and contrary to our declared expectations, the number of cases had still not gone "down to close to zero."

The South Korean response is characteristic of them as a society. They have chosen to create an excellent universal healthcare system for each other, and they generally respect scientific and medical expertise -- and their fellow citizens -- enough to follow self-quarantine orders rather than organizing mass protests for their freedom to spread the virus or spreading conspiracy theories about how social distancing is Bill Gates' attempt to reduce the global population. They wear masks when they're sick not to prevent themselves from getting sick, but to prevent themselves from getting each other sick. As a result of these attitudes, South Korea has now been able to get the mortality rate from this virus _under 1%_, and the spread of the virus has been essentially halted, and this has been achieved without a lockdown.

I don't personally expect the coronavirus experience to engender some new concern in Americans for each other's lives. Those of us who hold and wield disproportionate privilege and power apparently feel ourselves adversely affected less by the virus than by the response to it, while those who are suffering and dying the most do not have and probably will not soon get enough power to do anything about our national indifference to their lives. For example, they will also go on suffering and dying disproportionately of diseases caused or exacerbated by pollution because that's more convenient for most of us than regulating polluters would be.

Instead, as we see even in this thread, we can and of course will try to create a shared national narrative in which no one is to blame for the failures of our healthcare system, either in general or specifically with regard to our response to coronavirus -- a narrative in which we the people bear no guilt. We will try to create this narrative because we care more about evading personal responsibility for our decisions than about preventing the suffering and death our decisions cause. We are proving that it is not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of our finger: we'd rather preserve a system that kills tens of thousands of us every year than reconsider our decisions.

However, perhaps we will fail, and the younger generation in particular will realize that none of us are truly free until all of us are free, that all of us are harmed and even endangered when someone somewhere is suffering or dying from an illness that we choose not to prevent or treat effectively. I doubt it, because rather than beginning to care for each other enough to realize something like that, we simply hate each other more and more.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I do no such thing. But we are talking about science here - don't they tend to be very specific in their word choice? If they thought a SARS/MERS-like virus was likely to cause the next pandemic, would they not have said pandemic rather than outbreak? I mean, they choose specific words for a reason - as I remember, it was a huge deal when the WHO upgraded COVID-19 from an outbreak to a pandemic....


Just so it's clear: this is the first global pandemic the world has seen since 1918 so nothing I have said or will say infers that if just this or that had been done or not done much of what has occurred would not have occurred. There have been several viral outbreaks since and since scientists have had, to this point, no accurate way of predicting a pandemic or epidemic, it makes sense that they would prefer to talk about outbreaks. Once an outbreak has occurred, it is factors such as human resistance to the virus and contagious and the characteristics of the virus that allow prediction of a pandemic.

However, the way this was handled was very inefficient -something that might have been improved upon if that office hadn't been closed- and personally I think that this president has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to make certain decisions which means we lost some precious time. And I believe a lot of his decisions were a calculation on how they would affect his re-election.

The president is supposed to be at the helm bringing experts together and following their direction. Yes, he did bring in some experts, but his insistence on trying to create the impression that he is some sort of scientific savant has been a major distraction. Not to mention that the 'disinfectant injection' fiasco has frighteningly indicated how ignorant he is. This doesn't give me any warm fuzzies going forward as he and his ignorance continue to send out mixed messages.


----------



## Kieran

Good news from South Korea (not sure if this was posted elsewhere):

*"Coronavirus patients can't relapse, South Korean scientists believe"*

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...E0cucSdVXbfJo7ZZXQKMvCWa4hC1MeTwE2xB-TXW16xPY

It's behind a paywall, but the main points are:




> The new findings suggest that rather than indicating reinfection, the positive results were caused by shortcomings in the standard virus test. They will greatly reassure governments threatened by the nightmarish prospect of a never-ending cycle of infection and reinfection.
> 
> Positive test results on people who had tested negative were the result of "fragments" of the virus lingering in their bodies, but with no power to make them or ill or to infect others, according to South Korea's central clinical committee for emerging disease control.
> 
> A total of 277 patients appeared to have relapsed, raising fears that mutations in the virus could prevent patients from acquiring immunity to it, which would greatly complicate the task of finding a vaccine and eliminate the possibility of "herd immunity".
> Oh Myoung-don, the head of the committee, said that the later positive results were caused by shortcomings in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test that detects the virus's genetic information, or RNA, in samples taken from patients. The test is unable to differentiate between "live" RNA and harmless traces that can remain in the body of someone who has fully recovered.


And more:




> "RNA fragments still can exist in a cell even if the virus is inactivated," the committee said in a statement. "It is more likely that those who tested positive again picked up virus RNA that has already been inactivated."
> The conclusion is consistent with findings by the Korea Centres for Disease Control (KCDC) that seemingly "relapsed" patients were not infectious.
> "The respiratory epithelial cell has a half-life of up to three months, and RNA virus in the cell can be detected with PCR testing one to two months after the elimination of the cell," Dr Oh said.
> He also reported that the coronavirus cannot cause chronic illness by lingering inside the nucleus of human cells. In this respect the virus that causes Covid-19 is different from the HIV and hepatitis B viruses, which can remain dormant and reactivated later.
> South Korea reported no new cases of local infection today, for the first time since February. There were five new cases, all of them in patients who contracted the virus outside the country, taking the national total to 10,765 cases including 247 deaths.


----------



## arpeggio

To be frank, I do not understand 90% of the posts. At times I feel caught between the outer limits and the twilight zone


----------



## Flamme

Im not Frank but u just read my mind here arpie...L8ly it seems like the boundaries between our worlds and other worlds, world of dreams, world of spirits are fading away and walls are crumbling down...Its a very strange and pecualiar time and I lived through some strange and peculiar times so I know...


----------



## KenOC

Just to clarify the timeline: This thread was started Jan. 23, after China quarantined the entire city of Wuhan and a second nearby city – 18 million people. This was just nine days after China shared a study with the WHO, a study finding no evidence of person-to-person transmission of the disease, so things were obviously moving quickly.

On Jan. 31, President Trump ordered restrictions on entry of people from China or who had recently traveled in China. American citizens were, however, excepted. The first Covid-19 death in the U.S. was reported on Feb. 29.

I’d guess that stronger actions in the month of February would have been a very good thing. But given the timeline, it’s pretty easy to see why a sense of urgency was lacking. After all, not a single American had died from the disease, and the probably draconian measures needed to really make a difference would be unpopular and damaging to the economy.


----------



## arpeggio

*Airplane*

Airplane predicted this:


----------



## starthrower

Fast forward two months and the US has reached 60,000 deaths while many states are preparing to re-open their economies with no plan to tackle the severe outbreaks at meatpacking plants and state prisons.


----------



## Flamme

The prison outbreax led 2 many riots and uprisings in italy and elsewhere...Will it happen in us


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> Just to clarify the timeline: This thread was started Jan. 23


It was Jan 24 by then in Korea.









It's not like I can't even read a flipping date. Maoist or not.


----------



## KenOC

*U.S. coronavirus outbreak soon to be deadlier than any flu since 1967 as deaths top 60,000*

An interesting Reuters article comparing the two diseases. In both cases, older people are at much higher risk of death. It would be interesting to see if Covid-19 is a "substitute disease" for the flu, in which case flu deaths should be down.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> I'd guess that stronger actions in the month of February would have been a very good thing. But given the timeline, it's pretty easy to see why a sense of urgency was lacking. After all, not a single American had died from the disease, and the probably draconian measures needed to really make a difference would be unpopular and damaging to the economy.


no draconian measures were necessary, just checking readiness, ie revision of the pandemic preparedness plans, checking on hospitals, on equipment, on testing etc.


----------



## science

Jacck said:


> no draconian measures were necessary, just checking readiness, ie revision of the pandemic preparedness plans, checking on hospitals, on equipment, on testing etc.


Yes. Testing would have been excellent.


----------



## Sad Al

The kiero one, who does your avatar depict? It's not annoying though. Maybe his name is nobody


----------



## Kieran

Sad Al said:


> The kiero one, who does your avatar depict? It's not annoying though. Maybe his name is nobody


Me? That's Wolfie, brother. Be sad no more - _perfection exists....

_EDIT: Wolfie Mozart, not Citizen Smith... :lol:


----------



## Sad Al

That's funny. _Kiero_ means 'a crook' in Finnish. I'd like to visit Dublin, Ireland. I'm not kidding, I am _really_ sad - many years ago I tried to seek help from a shrink, He told me to hit the road - he didn't want to take any responsibility of my treatment. He wanted only money and an early retirement! This world is cruel and then you die. My brother was murdered over 30 years ago because he couldn't pay his heroin bills. Then my crazy mom drank herself to death. I sook employment to support 



pport my young family but my boss turned out to be incompetent, then my next boss turned out to become a psychopath he sacked me and I sued him but I nearly lost the lawsuit because I wasn't a psychopath, etc. etc. This satanic show never stops


----------



## Flamme

What abt Perkele???


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> no draconian measures were necessary, just checking readiness, ie revision of the pandemic preparedness plans, checking on hospitals, on equipment, on testing etc.


Again - let me reiterate this. 
THE OFFICIAL U.S. POLICY IN THE EVENT OF ANY OUTBREAK IS FOR THE CDC TO DEVELOP TESTS AND PUT THEM OUT THERE. THE CDC COMPLETELY SCREWED UP THE TESTS.
Does anybody of those people out there who bemoan the elimination of St. Barack of Obama's prophetic program to heal the world know whether his program eliminated this step?

I wish to hell they did follow the model that South Korea did and open up the development of tests to any and all and promise fast-track approval of those tests. But we didn't - and unless somebody out there knows specifically that Obama had something like that in place in his pandemic response plan that Trump did away with, this is a moot point.


----------



## Sad Al

Perkele helped Rokka, not my wife's uncle who got a bullet through his head. Perkele has some power though, by the power of Perkele he shot dozens of Russians. It's here:


----------



## pianozach

tdc said:


> So, Laura Birx has admitted anyone who dies with covid-19 gets labelled a covid death regardless of whether they were in the hospital for other life threatening problems like heart disease, cancer or anything else...hmm...talk about padding the numbers? Further, hospitals receive more money from the government when they have a patient that dies from covid-19, than when they have a patient that dies from anything else, like say pneumonia. Do you see how this could create a problem in getting reliable data? Further many of these covid deaths are labelled so on merely observing some vague symptoms, not even from an actual test result. . . .


Well, when someone comes down with COVID-19, then dies of pneumonia, then there are several ways to list their cause of death. You could say they died of pneumonia, but in fact, they're dying of suffocation (asphyxiation), or to be exact, they're dying because their heart stopped.

But any health expert will tell you that a COVID-19 related death like pneumonia should be listed as the disease that causes a system failure, not the symptom/complication of the disease. If someone's alcoholism causes cirrhosis of the liver, and the patient dies of liver failure, what, specifically, is the cause of death statistically?

No, you're just being nit-picky. They also may have been overweight, or had diabetes, cancer, heart disease, or anorexic. THAT is not what killed them. It may have eventually killed them had they lived longer, but they got CV-19, which causes pneumonia, and THAT is what kills them.

If someone has COVID-19 and dies from pneumonia I would EXPECT them to count that as a COVID-19 death. If they're CV-19 positive, then hit by a car, then no.

"They" are not padding the numbers. They're trying to count the deaths that can be directly linked to this pandemic.

Jeez.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Again - let me reiterate this.
> THE OFFICIAL U.S. POLICY IN THE EVENT OF ANY OUTBREAK IS FOR THE CDC TO DEVELOP TESTS AND PUT THEM OUT THERE. THE CDC COMPLETELY SCREWED UP THE TESTS. Does anybody of those people out there who bemoan the elimination of St. Barack of Obama's prophetic program to heal the world know whether his program eliminated this step? I wish to hell they did follow the model that South Korea did and open up the development of tests to any and all and promise fast-track approval of those tests. But we didn't - and unless somebody out there knows specifically that Obama had something like that in place in his pandemic response plan that Trump did away with, this is a moot point.


Trump gutted all possible government agencies, removing competent experts and replacing them with sycophants, ideologues and loyalists. People like Kushner and Ivanka should not be in any government. Their only qualification is that they are related to Trump. That is why the whole US government became totally dysfunctional on many levels. Yes, it is part of the Republican ideology. Government is bad. Reagan allegedly said "The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.". The pandemic has shown this to be a lie. A competent government was needed to react to the pandemic. The axis of evil comprised of Trump, McConell and Barr crippled the whole US state and severely undermined democracy.


----------



## Flamme

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/p...di_Edi_New_Reg20200430&utm_campaign=DM1242131


----------



## Sad Al

The Fab Four is the only cure,


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> Trump gutted all possible government agencies, removing competent experts and replacing them with sycophants, ideologues and loyalists. People like Kushner and Ivanka should not be in any government. Their only qualification is that they are related to Trump. That is why the whole US government became totally dysfunctional on many levels. Yes, it is part of the Republican ideology. Government is bad. Reagan allegedly said "The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.". The pandemic has shown this to be a lie. A competent government was needed to react to the pandemic. The axis of evil comprised of Trump, McConell and Barr crippled the whole US state and severely undermined democracy.


I think I just got hit by a fragment of hyperbole...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> Trump gutted all possible government agencies, removing competent experts and replacing them with sycophants, ideologues and loyalists. People like Kushner and Ivanka should not be in any government. Their only qualification is that they are related to Trump. That is why the whole US government became totally dysfunctional on many levels. Yes, it is part of the Republican ideology. Government is bad. Reagan allegedly said "The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.". The pandemic has shown this to be a lie. A competent government was needed to react to the pandemic. The axis of evil comprised of Trump, McConell and Barr crippled the whole US state and severely undermined democracy.


What did he gut and who did he replace at the CDC that led to their screwing up the tests? And how do you explain the horrible job Bill di Blasio did in NYC? Also one of Trump's sycophants, ideologues or loyalists?


----------



## perempe

https://www.blikk.hu/aktualis/krimi/tatabanya-tragedia-bolt-agyonverte-csalad-gyasz/cs44qnn
Tatabánya, Hungary. A retired police officer sent his son after a man after a dispute over who should enter a shop first. it ended badly.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> What did he gut and who did he replace at the CDC that led to their screwing up the tests? And how do you explain the horrible job Bill di Blasio did in NYC? Also one of Trump's sycophants, ideologues or loyalists?


I don't know what went wrong at CDC. Their fatal decision was not to accept the WHO test developed by Germany, but for some reason insist on developing their own test. But here is an article from January 31
Trump Has Sabotaged America's Coronavirus Response


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

By the way - remember the couple who drank the fish tank cleaner and the husband died, and everybody was blaming Trump for this, for pushing hydroxychloroquine? The wife is now being investigated for murder. Apparently there was a long history of the wife being abusive to the husband (police were called in), neither were Trump fans, and the man was an intelligent guy.

https://freebeacon.com/coronavirus/police-investigating-death-of-arizona-man-from-chloroquine-phosphate/


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> I don't know what went wrong at CDC. Their fatal decision was not to accept the WHO test developed by Germany, but for some reason insist on developing their own test. But here is an article from January 31
> Trump Has Sabotaged America's Coronavirus Response


BECAUSE THAT WAS THE OFFICIAL POLICY IN THE EVENT OF AN OUTBREAK - A POLICY THAT PREDATES DONALD TRUMP!

Trump didn't wake up one day and decide to not purchase tests developed in Germany. The government followed the official government policy.

By the way - the experts also misled the public. In the early days of all of this, they told us masks were useless. For some reason, doctors and health care workers still needed them, but nobody else needed them - apparently the virus specifically only targeted health care workers. How many more lives might have been saved had people not been lied to in this way? I get the fear of a shortage for healthcare workers, but the homegrown effort to make masks which has been amazing could have been started so much earlier, but they didn't because the experts lied to them.


----------



## Sad Al

**** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. **** **** **** ****. That's how we serious we should be. ****


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Again - let me reiterate this.
> THE OFFICIAL U.S. POLICY IN THE EVENT OF ANY OUTBREAK IS FOR THE CDC TO DEVELOP TESTS AND PUT THEM OUT THERE. THE CDC COMPLETELY SCREWED UP THE TESTS.
> Does anybody of those people out there who bemoan the elimination of St. Barack of Obama's prophetic program to heal the world know whether his program eliminated this step?
> 
> I wish to hell they did follow the model that South Korea did and open up the development of tests to any and all and promise fast-track approval of those tests. But we didn't - and unless somebody out there knows specifically that Obama had something like that in place in his pandemic response plan that Trump did away with, this is a moot point.


I'm not sure where the preoccupation with Obama is coming from -we'll, maybe I do- but he had nothing to do with the CDC screwup. In any event, if you want to blame a president, it was under Trump that the CDC screwed up. However, the screwup wasn't Trump's fault either.

The aforesaid office in the White House was to act as a early-warning system for the president in order to bring together scientists, doctors and experts as quickly as possible to come up with a blueprint for action. That is what was removed when Trump closed the office. The premise that '_Obama [should have] had something like [the South Korea model] in his pandemic response plan is_' is really off-point. It was the experts that the office would bring together that would decide on what to do. You make it sound like Obama was supposed to leave a top-secret envelope in a desk with directions to do fast track tests or something. Rather silly isn't it.


----------



## Flamme

perempe said:


> https://www.blikk.hu/aktualis/krimi/tatabanya-tragedia-bolt-agyonverte-csalad-gyasz/cs44qnn
> Tatabánya, Hungary. A retired police officer sent his son after a man after a dispute who should enter a shop first. it ended badly.


How buddy?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I'm not sure where the preoccupation with Obama is coming from -we'll, maybe I do- but he had nothing to do with the CDC screwup. In any event, if you want to blame a president, it was under Trump that the CDC screwed up. However, the screwup wasn't Trump's fault either.
> 
> The aforesaid office in the White House was to act as a early-warning system for the president in order to bring together scientists, doctors and experts as quickly as possible to come up with a blueprint for action. That is what was removed when Trump closed the office. The premise that '_Obama had something like [the South Korea model] in his pandemic response plan is_' is really off-point. It was the experts that the office would bring together that would decide on what to do. You make it sound like Obama was supposed to leave a top-secret envelope in a desk with directions to do fast track tests or something. Rather silly isn't it.


My preoccupation with Obama is that it keeps coming up that if only Trump had kept Obama's plan in place, this would all have gone so much better. Very similar to the "well if Bush had listened to the outgoing Clinton administration, 9/11 wouldn't have happened."

Okay - so adding another layer of bureaucracy was the solution to so many of these problems? Arguable, but I doubt it.

Forgive me for this somewhat obvious observation - the CDC's full name is Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is their official mission statement, as posted on their website (cdc.gov):


> CDC works 24/7 to protect America from health, safety and security threats, both foreign and in the U.S. Whether diseases start at home or abroad, are chronic or acute, curable or preventable, human error or deliberate attack, CDC fights disease and supports communities and citizens to do the same.
> 
> CDC increases the health security of our nation. As the nation's health protection agency, CDC saves lives and protects people from health threats. To accomplish our mission, CDC conducts critical science and provides health information that protects our nation against expensive and dangerous health threats, and responds when these arise.


So - some new group of experts would - or at least should - be a redundancy, wouldn't it? What, would you have both of them giving their own recommendations to the administration? That doesn't seem efficient. I mean, maybe I'm being obtuse here, but it sounds like the mission of the CDC is to do everything you claim that office in the White House, instituted by Obama and shuttered by Trump, would have done. Did we need a redundancy? When we go to war, does the president create a separate joint chiefs of staff in addition to the existing joint chiefs of staff, but, wait, this new one will advise him on what to do with the military?

I don't get it.

Update: Hey, look, they even already have an office in Washington, D.C.!
https://www.cdc.gov/washington/


----------



## pianozach

MacLeod said:


> As KenOC said, the CNN reports are thin, and from about unnamed sources still only goes back to November. Even if true, I doubt that any president would have taken early action to prevent an unnamed and unquantified virus coming to the US.
> 
> But you also said, "It was predicted several years ago by scientists, and even prior to that by sci-fi authors." Assuming 'It' means Covid 19 and not just the prospect of a plague - care to elaborate?


Several things here. First paragraph. Yes, it's difficult to get news on reports of viruses. But the President should have made preparations based on intelligence reports and expert warnings. We know that in 2017 the President started defunding, firing, gutting and suppressing agencies and experts that would have provided knowledge, wisdom, and context to potential risks.

Fine. Too late to fix THAT now. But he DID have intelligence warnings from our own people in the WHO, the CIA, and who-knows-what-other-sources, and instead decided HE knew better than the experts. He said it was a political hoax, then said we have 15 cases and they'll be gone in a few days . . . frankly, he did everything to obfuscate facts about it.

Then he said there would be "a miracle".

At the least, the president should have started the ball rolling on preparedness. But he couldn't, because the agencies were dismantled or gutted, the experts fired or ignored.



The *CDC* failed. Why? Well, even the former CDC Director Tom Frieden, who ran the CDC from 2009 to 2017, said, "I don't know what went wrong," but said "there needs to be an independent assessment."

Sure, the CDC never had to previously deal with such a major testing issues, BUT testing errors were never an issue before, and test ingredients always worked the way they were supposed to. The CDC always did their testing in the US, and this problem of not having reagents and not having the right kits had never been the case.

From *BUSINESS INSIDER*: _*"Justin Kinney, a microbiologist who runs a molecular biophysics lab at the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York, said that creating quality ingredients and supplies for the COVID-19 laboratory test, which uses the same RT-PCR technology that's ubiquitous in molecular biology labs around the globe, should have been simple."*_

And, you know in January, Justin Kinney, a microbiologist who runs a molecular biophysics lab at the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York, said that creating quality ingredients and supplies for the COVID-19 laboratory test, which uses the same RT-PCR technology that's ubiquitous in molecular biology labs around the globe, should have been simple.

Unfortunately, the version of the test the CDC sent to labs failed to work for most. It took eight days for the CDC to announce the problem, and more time to get new kits out and modify existing ones.

Those weeks were crucial.



As for the Second Paragraph, about the prognostication of science fiction writers . . . well, many of them research their subject matter thoroughly (like Crichton, Verne, Orwell, Heinlein), and don't just pull scenarios like this out of their as*ses. They build on what is known, and extrapolate a logical timeline of probable events, or even just inventions . . . Even Star Trek (ALL of the different series) used pandemics and pandemic responses in their stories.

THAT is precisely why we took precautions in the past to make preparations. We're not talking about predicting the exact number of masks or ventilators, where even just a ballpark figure would have been fine, but laying out procedures to follow, methods to use, agencies to compile data or spearhead manufacturing, communication networks, transportation chains.

We HAD that, but it was all mortally dismantled two or three years ago.


----------



## pianozach

Sad Al said:


> The Fab Four is the only cure,


_Ring, my friend, I said you'd call
Doctor Robert
Day or night he'll be there any time at all
Doctor Robert
_


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Several things here. First paragraph. Yes, it's difficult to get news on reports of viruses. But the President should have made preparations based on intelligence reports and expert warnings. We know that in 2017 the President started *defunding, firing, gutting and suppressing agencies and experts that would have provided knowledge, wisdom, and context to potential risks.*
> .


Examples, please?


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Examples, please?


https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/3...ited-states-public-health-emergency-response/


----------



## KenOC

As long as we’re talking about “gutting” agencies tasked with tracking biological threats, we should also mention the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), a unit of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). Headquartered at Fort Detrick, Maryland, NCMI was the supposed author of that fabled November report warning of a coronavirus epidemic raging in Hubei province. NCMI denies authoring such a report, and since even the medical forces on the ground in Hunan didn’t spot the first small cluster of cases until very late in December, their denial is quite believable.

NCMI's mission is to “monitor, track and assess a full range of global health events that could negatively impact the health of U.S. military and civilian populations.” I’m not sure how many such agencies the US really needs! In any event, Trump, in his insidious campaign to leave America helpless before the onslaught of ravenous viruses, evidently overlooked this one. :lol:


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/3...ited-states-public-health-emergency-response/


So basically, the answer is that he eliminated Obama's position of "epidemic czar?" Did anybody else get fired? I see he cut funding to help build healthcare infrastructure in Africa. Okay. Don't see how that impacts the coronavirus pandemic.

Who did he suppress? I remember Fauci explicitly stating that he has not been suppressed. Is Fauci allowed to speak his mind but the rest are suppressed?


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My preoccupation with Obama is that it keeps coming up that if only Trump had kept Obama's plan in place, this would all have gone so much better. Very similar to the "well if Bush had listened to the outgoing Clinton administration, 9/11 wouldn't have happened."


Why do you keep saying 'Obama's plan'? There was no Obama's plan. He set up an office for the Whitehouse to use. Experts would come up with a plan.



> Okay - so adding another layer of bureaucracy was the solution to so many of these problems? Arguable, but I doubt it. Forgive me for this somewhat obvious observation - the CDC's full name is Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is their official mission statement, as posted on their website (cdc.gov).
> 
> So - some new group of experts would - or at least should - be a redundancy, wouldn't it? What, would you have both of them giving their own recommendations to the administration? That doesn't seem efficient. I mean, maybe I'm being obtuse here, but it sounds like the mission of the CDC is to do everything you claim that office in the White House, instituted by Obama and shuttered by Trump, would have done. Did we need a redundancy? When we go to war, does the president create a separate joint chiefs of staff in addition to the existing joint chiefs of staff, but, wait, this new one will advise him on what to do with the military?
> I don't get it.


You're spending a lot of time on redundancy. Isn't the worst form of redundancy a pandemic task force headed up by that wunderkind, professor Pence? Thank heaven it includes Fauci and Birx, but their input and advice has been hog-tied and sometimes countermanded by the guy who really thinks he's the head scientist on the force, one Donald T.

The CDC is not meant to be able to handle whatever viral/bacterial outbreak occurs by itself. It brings in experts also depending on the contagion. Obama didn't just come up with the idea of a Whitehouse office on his own. It was recommended by experts after the Ebola outbreak. Someone may question whether it was redundant or not, but, until proven otherwise, that's theoretical. People who know far more than you or I thought it was a good idea. IMO, it was pure ignorance or some sort of slap at Obama that was behind Trump's administration shutting it down. Doing so may have eliminated an earlier warning and preparation. If it makes you feel any better I can't prove it.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> As long as we're talking about "gutting" agencies tasked with tracking biological threats, we should also mention the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), a unit of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). Headquartered at Fort Detrick, Maryland, NCMI was the supposed author of that fabled November report warning of a coronavirus epidemic raging in Hubei province. NCMI denies authoring such a report, and since even the medical forces on the ground in Hunan didn't spot the first small cluster of cases until very late in December, their denial is quite believable.
> 
> NCMI's mission is to "monitor, track and assess a full range of global health events that could negatively impact the health of U.S. military and civilian populations." I'm not sure how many such agencies the US really needs! In any event, Trump, in his insidious campaign to leave America helpless before the onslaught of ravenous viruses, evidently overlooked this one. :lol:


Apparently, the argument seems to be that the existing bureaucracies we have in place didn't do their job properly, so the solution is to create a whole other level of bureaucracy on top of that bureaucracy - because nothing gets the job done better than increasing the number of middle men through which information has to be filtered before it reaches the top.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Why do you keep saying 'Obama's plan'? There was no Obama's plan. He set up an office for the Whitehouse to use. Experts would come up with a plan.
> 
> You're spending a lot of time on redundancy. Isn't the worst form of redundancy a pandemic task force headed up by that wunderkind, professor Pence? Thank heaven it includes Fauci and Birx, *but their input and advice has been hog-tied and sometimes countermanded by the guy who really thinks he's the head scientist on the force, one Donald T.*


Not according to Fauci. You calling Fauci a liar?



> The CDC is not meant to be able to handle whatever viral/bacterial outbreak occurs by itself. It brings in experts also depending on the contagion. Obama didn't just come up with the idea of a Whitehouse office on his own. It was recommended by experts after the Ebola outbreak. Someone may question whether it was redundant or not, but, until proven otherwise, that's theoretical. People who know far more than you or I thought it was a good idea. IMO, it was pure ignorance or some sort of slap at Obama that was behind Trump's administration shutting it down. Doing so may have eliminated an earlier warning and preparation. If it makes you feel any better I can't prove it.


 At the very least, the CDC is meant to be that early warning system. Re-read their mission statement - how does that not sound exactly what you are claiming we needed here? Yeah - maybe they can't track every thing around the globe. But when information started popping up about some new coronavirus in China, I sure as hell would have thought those people would have picked their head out of their a**es and paid attention - that's what they claim they do. Why are we paying them?

By the way - are the people who recommended to Obama to create that office in the White House the same kind of geniuses that write mission statements for the CDC? I am less and less convinced that the vast majority of policy proposals are thought up by anything even approaching an "expert." I think Obama got some bad press during the Ebola outbreak, made him look bad, so he did what politicians always do: create a new committee/task force/office to show people he really means business. A nice facade to soothe the masses. "What do you mean the president isn't doing anything? He created that new committee/task force/office, didn't he?"


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Not according to Fauci. You calling Fauci a liar?
> 
> At the very least, the CDC is meant to be that early warning system. Re-read their mission statement - how does that not sound exactly what you are claiming we needed here? Yeah - maybe they can't track every thing around the globe. But when information started popping up about some new coronavirus in China, I sure as hell would have thought those people would have picked their head out of their a**es and paid attention - that's what they claim they do. Why are we paying them?


the primary job a president is to keep the citizen of the country safe. Trump failed miserably. Lock him up 
https://postimg.cc/fkr9rzkk
just kidding. It is your president, so do what you will with him. Just remember that he was shouting "lock her up" after 3 dead people in Benghazi.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Examples, please?


Jeez. *Many* *people* have pointed out *many* *examples* _*many times*_ in this thread.

You seem to simply be ignoring them.

Let's start with the Intelligence agencies.

You could start with the fact that four top jobs at *DHS* and *ODNI* have all been filled with temporary acting officials for literally every day that Covid-19 has been on the world stage.

We've been without a Senate-confirmed director for the *Office of the Director of National Intelligence* for eight months.

Last summer, Trump accepted the resignation of Dan Coats and forced out the career principal deputy of national intelligence, Sue Gordon. Coats temporary stand-in, career intelligence official Joseph Maguire, then served so long that he was coming close to timing out of his role-federal law usually lets officials serve only 210 days before relinquishing the acting post-when Trump ousted him too, as well as the acting career principal deputy.

Trump installed U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell as his latest acting director, the role that by law is meant to be the president's top intelligence adviser. Grenell has the least intelligence experience of any official ever to occupy director's suite.

The role of *Homeland Security secretary* has been vacant for an entire year, ever since Kirstjen Nielsen was forced out over Trump's belief she wasn't tough enough on border security.

There are currently no Senate-confirmed leaders of any of DHS' three border and immigration agencies: *Customs and Border Protection, Immigration and Customs Enforcement* or *U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services*.

Even the head of ICE is "acting head".

And there's plenty more vacancies being covered by "Acting" heads. And these vacancies ripple out in ways we simply fail to recognize, until there's an emergency like this.

The White House's attacks on the agencies that would have dealt with this pandemic have have consequences.

In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea.

White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. Even the government's $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.

In May 2018 Trump ordered the NSC's entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency.

The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer's DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the *NSC* nor *DHS* epidemic teams have been replaced.

The President may SAY "We were all surprised", or "Nobody ever expected a thing like this", but it WAS expected.

It's been expected for decades. The warnings have been getting more frequent, and more explicit.

November 18, 2019: a bipartisan report by the *Center for Strategic and International Studies*, cochaired by former US Senator Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, and Julie Gerberding, George W. Bush's one-time director for the *Centers for Disease Control and Prevention*, was published. That report's number-one recommendation was to undo the Trump administration's cuts to pandemic planning: *"Restore health security leadership at the White House National Security Council."*

You sir, are willfully ignoring the obvious.


----------



## Bulldog

Under normal circumstances, Trump is useless. Given a pandemic, he's dangerous. Trump's only skill is being a fascist grifter.


----------



## Kieran

Sad Al said:


> That's funny. _Kiero_ means 'a crook' in Finnish. I'd like to visit Dublin, Ireland. I'm not kidding, I am _really_ sad - many years ago I tried to seek help from a shrink, He told me to hit the road - he didn't want to take any responsibility of my treatment. He wanted only money and an early retirement! This world is cruel and then you die. My brother was murdered over 30 years ago because he couldn't pay his heroin bills. Then my crazy mom drank herself to death. I sook employment to support
> 
> 
> 
> pport my young family but my boss turned out to be incompetent, then my next boss turned out to become a psychopath he sacked me and I sued him but I nearly lost the lawsuit because I wasn't a psychopath, etc. etc. This satanic show never stops


That's strange - in Ireland, "Kieran" means, _"dreamy hunk with lecheorus intentions." _

But I'm sorry to hear your tales of woe. Life seems to randomly dump a load of trouble in the wrong places, and platitudes can never explain it. It's a rough turn you've had!


----------



## KenOC

"*Gilead told investors that it plans to have more than 140,000 treatment courses of remdesivir prepared by the end of May*."

Not necessarily a shot in the arm (a bit of humor there) for Gilead. First, it's unclear what it will charge for the drug, if anything at all. Second, the pandemic is likely to depress demand for its mainline and profitable products, mostly used for HIV and hepatitis B and C.


----------



## Kieran

I remember watching the Kavanaugh tribulations with a sense of horror when it became clear that in America, rape becomes utterly trivialized and is treated as a weapon in the political game of thrones. We need more evidence for this and we see how Joe Biden gets a pass. It all depends on which side you're on, really. A rape happens when it's somebody we don't like, no matter how flimsy the evidence, and "there's nothing to see here, just another bimbo eruption", when it's our grinning white-teeth hero who's accused.

It probably doesn't matter to Americans how the rest of the world sees their politics, and maybe it should, but it's a more poisonous bug than corona...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> I remember watching the Kavanaugh tribulations with a sense of horror when it became clear that in America, rape becomes utterly trivialized and is treated as a weapon in the political game of thrones. We need more evidence for this and we see how Joe Biden gets a pass. It all depends on which side you're on, really. A rape happens when it's somebody we don't like, no matter how flimsy the evidence, and "there's nothing to see here, just another bimbo eruption", when it's our grinning white-teeth hero who's accused.
> 
> It probably doesn't matter to Americans how the rest of the world sees their politics, and maybe it should, but it's a more poisonous bug than corona...


I personally think that Kavanaugh is a crook. But I was against the female psychology professor (dont remember her name) who accused him of rape 30 years ago. And I am against the woman now accusing Biden. The reason is that the accusations are obviously politically motivated. I cannot remember what happened 10 years ago. And 30? They had plenty of time to make those accusations sooner. Nobody should take them seriously now.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> I personally think that Kavanaugh is a crook. But I was against the female psychology professor (dont remember her name) who accused him of rape 30 years ago. And I am against the woman now accusing Biden. The reason is that the accusations are obviously politically motivated. I cannot remember what happened 10 years ago. And 30? They had plenty of time to make those accusations sooner. Nobody should take them seriously now.


The point being, people "believed" the woman in the Kavanaugh thing because they saw a chance to win a political fight. It's disgusting. Tribal politics is a curse, people hate somebody because he's a different party to them - they probably don;t have a clue what the person believes, but they'd drive him to an early grave, and kill his wife and children just to win a political seat.

That ugly, backward, inbred tribalism is a curse, it takes normally sane people, and turns them into rabid loons...


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Not according to Fauci. You calling Fauci a liar?
> 
> At the very least, the CDC is meant to be that early warning system. Re-read their mission statement - how does that not sound exactly what you are claiming we needed here? Yeah - maybe they can't track every thing around the globe. But when information started popping up about some new coronavirus in China, I sure as hell would have thought those people would have picked their head out of their a**es and paid attention - that's what they claim they do. Why are we paying them?
> 
> By the way - are the people who recommended to Obama to create that office in the White House the same kind of geniuses that write mission statements for the CDC? I am less and less convinced that the vast majority of policy proposals are thought up by anything even approaching an "expert." I think Obama got some bad press during the Ebola outbreak, made him look bad, so he did what politicians always do: create a new committee/task force/office to show people he really means business. A nice facade to soothe the masses. "What do you mean the president isn't doing anything? He created that new committee/task force/office, didn't he?"


I can't keep up with all the pivoting so I won't bother. The whole 'You calling Fauci a liar?' is just a pivot to distract. If you haven't noticed how often Trump compliments Fauci's work one moment and then goes and tweets or says something that is totally contrary to Fauci's recommendations then you're not keeping as informed as I thought you were. The latest is Trump talking about restarting his rallies while Fauci is saying we shouldn't even be opening restaurants yet.

Fauci and Birx are true patriots. There is no doubt in my mind that they have made a concerted decision to keep their positions for the benefit of the country even if it means having to placate Trump with non-science-related half-truths sometimes. Birx could have justifiably resigned on the excuse that there is danger to her sensibilities when Trump looked at her and seriously suggested the premise of injecting disinfectants sending her into almost a state of cataplexy. But she didn't and God bless her for it.

Excuse me now. It's time to take my famotidine for my...that's it, my heartburn.


----------



## mountmccabe

KenOC said:


> Just to clarify the timeline: This thread was started Jan. 23, after China quarantined the entire city of Wuhan and a second nearby city - 18 million people. This was just nine days after China shared a study with the WHO, a study finding no evidence of person-to-person transmission of the disease, so things were obviously moving quickly.


Just because this has been hit on so many times I'm going to repeat this.

"no clear evidence" (which is what the tweet said) does not mean "no evidence." It also does not mean no possibility and the fact that they brought it up means it was something to look out for. They did not express all of these things because epidemiologists and medical professionals would understand.



KenOC said:


> On Jan. 31, President Trump ordered restrictions on entry of people from China or who had recently traveled in China. American citizens were, however, excepted. The first Covid-19 death in the U.S. was reported on Feb. 29.


I will note that this was merely the first death reported as attributed to COVID-19.

We have now found that deaths as early as February 6 (in Santa Clara, California) were due to COVID-19. There may well be others that were missed. We did not know that these deaths were happening throughout February, in part because we were not looking.



KenOC said:


> I'd guess that stronger actions in the month of February would have been a very good thing. But given the timeline, it's pretty easy to see why a sense of urgency was lacking. After all, not a single American had died from the disease, and the probably draconian measures needed to really make a difference would be unpopular and damaging to the economy.


The urgency was lacking because, by and large, we weren't doing the testing. We were trying to not see the problem.

The CDC reported that there was community transmission going on February 27. Around the same time information found via the Seattle Flu Study same in Washington state, that there were likely hundreds of unknown cases. "This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks." (Top of that tweet thread).

There still has been no national lockdown, and some states have still had limited lockdowns. And everyone is enamoured with a model from the UW which is just a curve fit to cases in Wuhan (that was made to estimate medical supply usage and was never intended to be used as it has) but no city, county, or state in the US has come close to the lockdown Wuhan saw, so there's zero chance we'll see the drop-off of cases they saw in Wuhan (but, again, the model was never really about the tail end).

Yes, a shutdown in February (or even early March) would have been unpopular and damaging to the economy. But it also would have saved tens of thousands of lives, and we'd be in a much better position right now. As it stands, we're still in a point where keeping the lockdowns going (or putting the stay-at-home orders back in place, for some states) will save tens of thousands of lives. The lockdowns are popular, even if there a small number of bad faith actors arguing against them.

Of course the level of lockdown varies, and there are arguments to be made about what should be allowed to open, etc. Washington is opening up some state parks while California is closing down beaches. Adjustments like these make sense; organizing a group to bring a bunch of armed protestors into the Capitol Building (as happened in Lansing, Michigan today) is probably the worst way to go about it.

Again, we'd be in a much better place right now if there weren't so many unknown active cases.


----------



## KenOC

The *prime minister of Russia* has been hospitalized with the virus.


----------



## science

Does anyone understand why the governor of Maryland is using the National Guard to keep feds from seizing COVID-19 tests from South Korea? Why would the feds seize the tests? 

Whatever the explanation is, what crazy goddamn times we live in.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I can't keep up with all the pivoting so I won't bother. The whole 'You calling Fauci a liar?' is just a pivot to distract. If you haven't noticed how often Trump compliments Fauci's work one moment and then goes and tweets or says something that is totally contrary to Fauci's recommendations then you're not keeping as informed as I thought you were. The latest is Trump talking about restarting his rallies while Fauci is saying we shouldn't even be opening restaurants yet.
> 
> Fauci and Birx are true patriots. There is no doubt in my mind that they have made a concerted decision to keep their positions for the benefit of the country even if it means having to placate Trump with non-science-related half-truths sometimes. Birx could have justifiably resigned on the excuse that there is danger to her sensibilities when Trump looked at her and seriously suggested the premise of injecting disinfectants sending her into almost a state of cataplexy. But she didn't and God bless her for it.
> 
> Excuse me now. It's time to take my famotidine for my...that's it, my heartburn.


You only answered one small part of my larger post. What say you to my comments on the CDC?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> I personally think that Kavanaugh is a crook. But I was against the female psychology professor (dont remember her name) who accused him of rape 30 years ago. And I am against the woman now accusing Biden. The reason is that the accusations are obviously politically motivated. I cannot remember what happened 10 years ago. And 30? They had plenty of time to make those accusations sooner. Nobody should take them seriously now.


I agree with most of your post. But on what do you base your assessment that Kavanaugh is a crook? You have followed his career for some time? I'm not aware that that was even one of the allegations leveled against him. Did you come across some information that wasn't raised here in the United States?


----------



## starthrower

Apparently FEMA has been intercepting shipments of medical supplies ordered by the states and redirecting them elsewhere. For this reason the Maryland governor is closely guarding his shipment of a half million test kits purchased from S. Korea.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> You only answered one small part of my larger post. What say you to my comments on the CDC?


Your criticism of the CDC has some basis. There was no excuse for the testing fiasco. Yes, the CDC has an early warning mandate, but apparently some experts thought that a Whitehouse office was also necessary to provide the president with immediately available information, a heads up, 'we've got to get going on this'. I wasn't consulted on the decision so until proven otherwise I'm assuming that the Ebola epidemic indicated a need for it in addition to the CDC.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Your criticism of the CDC has some basis. There was no excuse for the testing fiasco. Yes, the CDC has an early warning mandate, but apparently some experts thought that a Whitehouse office was also necessary to provide the president with immediately available information, a heads up, 'we've got to get going on this'. I wasn't consulted on the decision so until proven otherwise I'm assuming that the Ebola epidemic indicated a need for it in addition to the CDC.


Again, I think the creation of Obama's White House office was more a political move to appear to be doing something than an actual necessary measure. And that is not a specific dig at Obama - all politicians do this. That is how their brains work. Got a problem? Form a committee.

None of this is to excuse all the other insanity from Trump. But Trump says a lot of crap, and most of it never makes it into policy. He just likes to talk, and has no filter. He has said a lot of crap, and I really hope we don't have any more of these daily briefings with him at the podium. But my impression is that, after a rough start, he is essentially letting his experts call the shots - Fauci and Birx among them. An earlier, more deft hand would have probably altered things slightly, but given that, per capita, we are seeing fewer deaths than many European countries, on average we don't seem to be doing much worse than them, with some exceptions (Germany is beating most of them). Not comforting, for sure. But there are also some regional things that probably would have been an issue, regardless of what Trump did. NYC, for a wide variety of reasons, is skewing the results for the entire country - a combination of what looks like a slightly different strain, being an international travel hub, high population density, greater reliance on mass public transportation, and a clueless mayor who has been at least as feckless as Trump. Remove NYC from the picture, and our picture looks a lot better.

I don't think the absence of the White House office had any kind of significant impact on any of this. First of all, if so much blame is going to be assigned to Trump, then what would an office he directly controlled, and could only act under his authority, have done? I think the biggest problem - setting China aside - was the failure to get testing up and going soon enough. The screwup and delay in reporting it by the CDC was a major thing. I also wish Trump had unleashed private biotech and pharma earlier to develop testing, at the same time the CDC was starting, like South Korea did. But whether he could have done that without Congressional approval (or the opposition party crying bloody murder) I don't know.


----------



## KenOC

As this thread shows day after day, the Monday morning quarterbacking never stops!


----------



## science

As has been shown repeatedly, some countries had quarterbacks on Sunday.


----------



## science

pianozach said:


> Several things here. First paragraph. Yes, it's difficult to get news on reports of viruses. But the President should have made preparations based on intelligence reports and expert warnings. We know that in 2017 the President started defunding, firing, gutting and suppressing agencies and experts that would have provided knowledge, wisdom, and context to potential risks.
> 
> Fine. Too late to fix THAT now. But he DID have intelligence warnings from our own people in the WHO, the CIA, and who-knows-what-other-sources, and instead decided HE knew better than the experts. He said it was a political hoax, then said we have 15 cases and they'll be gone in a few days . . . frankly, he did everything to obfuscate facts about it.
> 
> Then he said there would be "a miracle".
> 
> At the least, the president should have started the ball rolling on preparedness. But he couldn't, because the agencies were dismantled or gutted, the experts fired or ignored.
> 
> 
> 
> The *CDC* failed. Why? Well, even the former CDC Director Tom Frieden, who ran the CDC from 2009 to 2017, said, "I don't know what went wrong," but said "there needs to be an independent assessment."
> 
> Sure, the CDC never had to previously deal with such a major testing issues, BUT testing errors were never an issue before, and test ingredients always worked the way they were supposed to. The CDC always did their testing in the US, and this problem of not having reagents and not having the right kits had never been the case.
> 
> From *BUSINESS INSIDER*: _*"Justin Kinney, a microbiologist who runs a molecular biophysics lab at the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York, said that creating quality ingredients and supplies for the COVID-19 laboratory test, which uses the same RT-PCR technology that's ubiquitous in molecular biology labs around the globe, should have been simple."*_
> 
> And, you know in January, Justin Kinney, a microbiologist who runs a molecular biophysics lab at the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York, said that creating quality ingredients and supplies for the COVID-19 laboratory test, which uses the same RT-PCR technology that's ubiquitous in molecular biology labs around the globe, should have been simple.
> 
> Unfortunately, the version of the test the CDC sent to labs failed to work for most. It took eight days for the CDC to announce the problem, and more time to get new kits out and modify existing ones.
> 
> Those weeks were crucial.
> 
> 
> 
> As for the Second Paragraph, about the prognostication of science fiction writers . . . well, many of them research their subject matter thoroughly (like Crichton, Verne, Orwell, Heinlein), and don't just pull scenarios like this out of their as*ses. They build on what is known, and extrapolate a logical timeline of probable events, or even just inventions . . . Even Star Trek (ALL of the different series) used pandemics and pandemic responses in their stories.
> 
> THAT is precisely why we took precautions in the past to make preparations. We're not talking about predicting the exact number of masks or ventilators, where even just a ballpark figure would have been fine, but laying out procedures to follow, methods to use, agencies to compile data or spearhead manufacturing, communication networks, transportation chains.
> 
> We HAD that, but it was all mortally dismantled two or three years ago.


This was a fine post, so I hope it's not ignored.


----------



## mountmccabe

It's a classic move. "Defund the CDC, they aren't needed" leads to CDC missing things and "See! The CDC is incompetent! Defund them" and the cycle repeats and federal agencies are less and less able to do much, which further erodes their popularity.

We wouldn't need private companies looking to profit off of COVID-19 if the CDC had been properly funded in the first place. Mistakes happen; there's only so much that can be done to deal with contingencies in an agency forced to run as efficiently as possible.


----------



## KenOC

A *large-scale British study* shows that one-third of people hospitalized for Covid-19 die. That's said to be about the same rate as Ebola.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mountmccabe said:


> It's a classic move. "Defund the CDC, they aren't needed" leads to CDC missing things and "See! The CDC is incompetent! Defund them" and the cycle repeats and federal agencies are less and less able to do much, which further erodes their popularity.
> 
> We wouldn't need private companies looking to profit off of COVID-19 if the CDC had been properly funded in the first place. Mistakes happen; there's only so much that can be done to deal with contingencies in an agency forced to run as efficiently as possible.


So you think putting all your chickens in one basket was the better call, just give them infinite funding? Yeah - that always seems to be the prudent call. Regardless of how much their funding was and wasn't cut, that doesn't explain them failing to follow protocols. That had nothing to do with funding - that had to do with incompetence.

Not going to address at all that South Korea seems to have had one of the best responses in terms of getting tests out, and that didn't involve putting it all in the hands of one government agency?


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> As this thread shows day after day, the Monday morning quarterbacking never stops!






---------------


----------



## starthrower

*In fact, all of Trump's budget proposals have called for cuts to CDC funding, but Congress has intervened each time by passing spending bills with year-over-year increases for the CDC that Trump then signed into law.*
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-cut-cdcs-budget-democrats-claim-analysis/story?id=69233170


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Not going to address at all that South Korea seems to have had one of the best responses in terms of getting tests out, and that didn't involve putting it all in the hands of one government agency?


Don't mention the war. Much better to apply the, "Ooooh, look over THERE" tic.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> *In fact, all of Trump's budget proposals have called for cuts to CDC funding, but Congress has intervened each time by passing spending bills with year-over-year increases for the CDC that Trump then signed into law.*
> https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-cut-cdcs-budget-democrats-claim-analysis/story?id=69233170


That's not a serious post. Sorry. It just isn't. No presidential budget proposal EVER gets funded. No Congress ever pays any attention to it. Even when his party controlled the House and the Senate, Obama didn't get his budgets. No president ever does. Like you said - Congress passes spending bills that increase CDC funding and Trump signs them. I care less about what politicians say and more about what they actually do.


----------



## starthrower

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> That's not a serious post. Sorry. It just isn't. No presidential budget proposal EVER gets funded. No Congress ever pays any attention to it. Even when his party controlled the House and the Senate, Obama didn't get his budgets. No president ever does. Like you said - Congress passes spending bills that increase CDC funding and Trump signs them. I care less about what politicians say and more about what they actually do.


You're agreeing with what's posted which I pasted from the article. Right, congress ignored the proposed cuts and increased the budget.


----------



## science

Coronavirus anti-lockdown protests exemplify white privilege



> ... what has been most glaringly obvious about these protests isn't the far-right theatrics. It's that almost everyone marching to end stay-at-home orders is white. And if they do return to "regular life" and refuse to distance themselves, their overt disregard will impact the population most vulnerable to the virus - black people.
> 
> ...
> 
> According to an American Public Media Research Lab report published this week, almost 50,000 people have died of Covid-19 in the country. Data for about three-fourths of those deaths reveals that the mortality rate for blacks is 2.7 times higher than for whites. Although blacks make up only 13 percent of the population, they represent 30 percent of Covid-19 patients in the US. The data continues to reveal which Americans face the greatest risk if the country is reopened.
> 
> ...
> 
> In the event that these rich white folks find themselves with a cough and fever, they are more likely to have the reassurance and privilege of access to local testing centers and quality, unbiased health care. Meanwhile, black people do not have access to quality and racially unbiased health care.
> 
> ...
> 
> In fact, disparities such as these have never been more apparent than in this pandemic: Doctors have expressed concern that Covid-19 testing is not as accessible to black communities. Meanwhile, blacks and Latinos also make up the largest number of essential workers, who are most at risk of infection.


Why the coronavirus is hitting black people so hard

Mostly that is just chatting -- lots of good stuff, but not all on the topic of the title -- but it contains this example:



> ... southwest Georgia has some of the highest death rates in the country, in mostly black counties. The governor of Georgia is saying, "Oh, things are cool. We can open back up the state." That shows me not only that he doesn't really value black lives, but also that many people are going to suffer as a result of his policy.


So that's the kind of thing I'm talking about.


----------



## arpeggio

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> What did he gut and who did he replace at the CDC that led to their screwing up the tests?


You do not know?????????? What part of the outer limits do you exist? The news has been covering the various offices that Trump has closed down for months. One of them was the .White House's National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense.

Considering the confusing posts you have already submitted, it would probably a waste of time responding to your answer to this.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

science said:


> Coronavirus anti-lockdown protests exemplify white privilege
> 
> Why the coronavirus is hitting black people so hard
> 
> Mostly that is just chatting -- lots of good stuff, but not all on the topic of the title -- but it contains this example:
> 
> So that's the kind of thing I'm talking about.


Damned racist virus! Why don't they just call it the KKKoronavirus?!?!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

arpeggio said:


> You do not know?????????? What part of the outer limits do you exist? The news has been covering the various offices that Trump has closed down for months. One of them was the .White House's National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense.
> 
> Considering the confusing posts you have already submitted, it would probably a waste of time responding to your answer to this.


We've covered this already in several posts.


----------



## science

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Damned racist virus! Why don't they just call it the KKKoronavirus?!?!


It's not the virus of course. It's the way we've built our society, and the way we choose to respond to these things. We can spin clever narratives to excuse ourselves as long as we live, but in our bones, in our flesh and blood and heart and soul and guts, we know that none of this is an accident, either.


----------



## KenOC

Yes, now the Covid-19 pandemic (or at least the response to it) is being interpreted as a *form of racial oppression*.
---------------------------------------------------------------
A Rutgers University professor said she is facing harassment but stands by her tweets saying "f--- Trump supporters" and blaming them for the coronavirus deaths that disproportionately affect Black communities.

"F--- each and every Trump supporter. You all absolutely did this. You are to blame," she tweeted.

"So I said what I meant. And I curse cuz I'm grown," Dr. Brittney Cooper, associate professor in the Department of Women's, Gender and Sexuality Studies, tweeted Thursday after the Washington Examiner published a story on her earlier tweets. "I disdain every person who thought and thinks he's a good leader, because that thinking has had material consequences for far too many of us."

Cooper also tweeted Tuesday that most Black people believe that the push to re-open the country is based on a "gross necropolitical calculation that it is Black people who are dying disproportionately from COVID."
---------------------------------------------------------------
The good prof says she can say what she likes because she has tenure. The university agrees, and rightly so: "Dr. Cooper's Twitter statements are her own personal statements and not those of the University."


----------



## mountmccabe

starthrower said:


> *In fact, all of Trump's budget proposals have called for cuts to CDC funding, but Congress has intervened each time by passing spending bills with year-over-year increases for the CDC that Trump then signed into law.*
> https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-cut-cdcs-budget-democrats-claim-analysis/story?id=69233170


It appears as if this is one of the situations where the answer depends enough on how you define things that everyone disagrees. The numbers in that article don't match what I'm seeing from the CDC (pdf, and here I'm focusing on 2018 and 2019, since those are actual numbers, not just the presidential budget) and don't match what is used in various other charts.

But no matter what numbers we look at, if there was a decrease, it was minor. The CDC fact sheet shows a decrease only in the hundreds of millions from FY 2018 to FY 2019, which is of course not preferred, but is not as significant as I suggested. (Of course I still think there's undue harping on the mistakes made in developing the test, as if that excuses the many mistakes by the federal and local governments).


----------



## Bigbang

This is what intelligent conversation is about concerning coronavirus.


----------



## Bigbang

And this is another one regarding understanding the virus.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> The good prof says she can say what she likes because she has tenure.


The assumption behind this statement is that she ought to be fired for telling truths that make some of us uncomfortable.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

science said:


> The assumption behind this statement is that she ought to be fired for telling truths that make some of us uncomfortable.


She should be fired for insulting every Trump supporter. Every Trump supporter should call for Rutgers university to no longer receive any federal aid.


----------



## Phil loves classical

science said:


> The assumption behind this statement is that she ought to be fired for telling truths that make some of us uncomfortable.


How would Obama or Clinton have changed those results? That's what I'm wondering.


----------



## KenOC

A few days ago I posted a photo of people frolicking at Huntington Beach during a short-lived heat wave. The situation was obviously noticed. Based on community Facebook sites, my sense is that people are getting very impatient with the lockdown, since infection rates are so low here.

“SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday directed the temporary “hard close” of state and local beaches in Orange County after thousands of Californians flocked to the shoreline there over the weekend in defiance of a statewide stay-at-home order enacted to stem the spread of the coronavirus.”


----------



## KenOC

Johnnie Burgess said:


> She should be fired for insulting every Trump supporter. Every Trump supporter should call for Rutgers university to no longer receive any federal aid.


Disagree. She can say what she likes. Professors are granted tenure for a good reason.

See also the case of Prof. Ward Churchill, who wrote an essay referring to the "little Eichmanns" working in the World Trade Center when it was destroyed on 9/11. His university later found him guilty of research misconduct and fired him, though that was widely seen as a smokescreen for punishing him for his political views. A jury found that to be so and awarded him damages if one dollar, later set aside on a technicality.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

KenOC said:


> Disagree. She can say what she likes. Professors are granted tenure for a good reason.


The school can have its funds from tax payers cut. Trump supporters should tell grads of Rutgers your degree from their is worthless.


----------



## KenOC

Johnnie Burgess said:


> The school can have its funds from tax payers cut. Trump supporters should tell grads of Rutgers your degree from their is worthless.


A degree from Rutgers is worthless, and it should be defunded, because it allows its professors the right of free speech? I think you have in mind a different society from the one I prefer.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

KenOC said:


> A degree from Rutgers is worthless, and it should be defunded, because it allows its professors the right of free speech? I think you have in mind a different society from the one I prefer.


No anyone who says I support killing of african americans for wanting to reopen the economy does not get my tax dollars.


----------



## science

Phil loves classical said:


> How would Obama or Clinton have changed those results? That's what I'm wondering.


Neither of them was particularly progressive on health or racial issues, but neither was as regressive as Trump. Obama actually dealt with two public health scares, though, so we do have a bit of a basis for comparison.


----------



## science

Johnnie Burgess said:


> She should be fired for insulting every Trump supporter. Every Trump supporter should call for Rutgers university to no longer receive any federal aid.


As I consider the merits of your suggestion, I'll note that you're more worried that she's insulted Trump supporters than that tens of thousands of people -- mostly working-class people -- have died.



Johnnie Burgess said:


> No anyone who says I support killing of african americans for wanting to reopen the economy does not get my tax dollars.


People who say opinions you don't want said should be fired. To be clear, that's brazen censorship.

And since "reopening the economy" (to the extent that that's a thing) means killing black people, you can't actually support one without (at least reluctantly) accepting the other.



Johnnie Burgess said:


> The school can have its funds from tax payers cut. Trump supporters should tell grads of Rutgers your degree from *their* is worthless.


Also worth noting. I hope I never find myself in a position where I depend on your judgement of the worth of my degree.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

science said:


> As I consider the merits of your suggestion, I'll note that you're more worried that she's insulted Trump supporters than that tens of thousands of people -- mostly working-class people -- have died.
> 
> People who say opinions you don't want said should be fired. To be clear, that's brazen censorship.
> 
> And since "reopening the economy" (to the extent that that's a thing) means killing black people, you can't actually support one without (at least reluctantly) accepting the other.
> 
> Also worth noting. I hope I never find myself in a position where I depend on your judgement of the worth of my degree.


The days of insulting Republicans and getting Republican tax dollars should come to and end.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> The assumption behind this statement is that she ought to be fired for telling truths that make some of us uncomfortable.


Another false and baseless accusation. This is becoming tiresome. Here is what I actually wrote. Did you read it?




> The good prof says she can say what she likes because she has tenure. The university agrees, and rightly so: "Dr. Cooper's Twitter statements are her own personal statements and not those of the University."


Again, an apology is due, and again I doubt that it will be offered since you seem without either honor or a sense of shame. I'm quite fed up with this.
​


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> Another false and baseless accusation. This is becoming tiresome. Here is what I actually wrote. Did you read it?
> 
> 
> 
> Again, an apology is due, and again I doubt that it will be offered since you seem without either honor or a sense of shame. I'm quite fed up with this.
> ​


Relax. You've never apologized for calling me a Maoist and that was probably ten years ago. I'm sure you won't be receiving any apologies until I do, and I find the idea of you evaluating my honor or shame humorous.

Anyway, are you sure that I attributed that assumption to you or pointed out what your statement was responding to?

But seriously, and on a personal note, I actually am a little saddened by the development of your political views over the decade or so that we've "known" each other online. You were always a little sympathetic to hardcore rightwing ideas, but you used to be a lot more fair-minded, or at least that's how I remember you back in the discussions with "Kim Beazley" on the amazon forum. I worry that you've consumed too much right-wing media in these years. I understand you to be very comfortably middle-class, but I hope you don't get to the point that you confuse your own family's interests with the interests of billionaires. The interests of even the residents of gated communities are actually closer to those of the working class than to those of the corporate and political elite, and we need as much solidarity as we can get.

Anyway, that's enough of such mawkish sincerity. We can go back to the name-calling.


----------



## science

Johnnie Burgess said:


> The days of insulting Republicans and getting Republican tax dollars should come to and end.


They certainly will when the days of Republicans brazenly advocating policies that kill black people come to an end.


----------



## Johnnie Burgess

science said:


> They certainly will when the days of Republicans brazenly advocating policies that kill black people come to an end.


The people who want to work should be allowed to. The people who want to stay home can stay home.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> Relax. You've never apologized for calling me a Maoist and that was probably ten years ago. I'm sure you won't be receiving any apologies until I do, and I find the idea of you evaluating my honor or shame humorous.


Gnawing on ancient bones does not provide a nourishing diet. I try to live in the present and will not abide anybody falsely accusing me and, when that is pointed out, refusing an honest apology. That behavior is dishonest and dishonorable, regardless of anything that has happened in the past. For shame!


----------



## mmsbls

Let's please get back to discussing the coronavirus and refrain from comments on pure politics and each other.


----------



## science

mmsbls said:


> Let's please get back to discussing the coronavirus and refrain from comments on pure politics and each other.


To promote that...



KenOC said:


> Gnawing on ancient bones does not provide a nourishing diet. I try to live in the present and will not abide anybody falsely accusing me and, when that is pointed out, refusing an honest apology. That behavior is dishonest and dishonorable, regardless of anything that has happened in the past. For shame!


I apologize for any way that I've misunderstood or misrepresented your views. I hope I receive similar consideration from you from now on.

So, moving on, how 'bout that COVID-19, eh? I guess there's nothing anyone could've done to prevent any of this.


----------



## Bigbang

science said:


> To promote that...
> 
> I apologize for any way that I've misunderstood or misrepresented your views. I hope I receive similar consideration from you from now on.
> 
> So, moving on, how 'bout that COVID-19, eh? I guess there's nothing anyone could've done to prevent any of this.


I think wrong question or statement. When we look at present we see the future. No matter how mighty our science can or will become, nature can and will inflict terrible consequences if we collectively continue on a path towards domination of the weaker species. Some people see God, some see evolution, some see ego, some see "those" and "them." In a way, coronavirus is showing us that we are not comfortable being with ourselves, without the hustle and bustle of distraction it is hard to come to meet our being so alone again. I do hope the future generations (they are shaped by the present generation) will have the necessary tools to use our situation to prevent a far worse disaster, needless suffering and death by hoarding resources for ourselves.


----------



## pianozach

Johnnie Burgess said:


> She should be fired for insulting every Trump supporter. Every Trump supporter should call for Rutgers university to no longer receive any federal aid.





Johnnie Burgess said:


> The school can have its funds from tax payers cut. Trump supporters should tell grads of Rutgers your degree from their is worthless.





science said:


> As I consider the merits of your suggestion, I'll note that you're more worried that she's insulted Trump supporters than that tens of thousands of people -- mostly working-class people -- have died.
> 
> People who say opinions you don't want said should be fired. To be clear, that's brazen censorship.
> 
> And since "reopening the economy" (to the extent that that's a thing) means killing black people, you can't actually support one without (at least reluctantly) accepting the other.
> 
> Also worth noting. I hope I never find myself in a position where I depend on your judgement of the worth of my degree.


Calling on someone to be fired because you don't like them criticizing you for supporting a political party that appears to be racist?

Good luck with THAT.

You don't like Rutgers, don't go there.

But to say you wouldn't hire anyone from Rutgers because you don't like what a teacher had to say, and object to the University not firing her?

You object too much. Way too much. You're being wa-a-a-a-ay too defensive about Trump and being criticized for supporting him.

You sir, fail to realize that he's a conman. If you don't see it, then YOU're the mark.


----------



## pianozach

Johnnie Burgess said:


> She should be fired for insulting every Trump supporter. Every Trump supporter should call for Rutgers university to no longer receive any federal aid.





Johnnie Burgess said:


> The school can have its funds from tax payers cut. Trump supporters should tell grads of Rutgers your degree from their is worthless.





Johnnie Burgess said:


> The days of insulting Republicans and getting Republican tax dollars should come to and end.


I've been living through 3 years of Trump insulting Democrats, women, people of color, jews, muslims, reporters, and even TV shows.

I think THAT should come to an end. In fact, I think Trump should be fired.


----------



## KenOC

How things were 60 years ago. We had a better press. We had a better president. Eisenhower responds to a question about Robert E. Lee.


----------



## science

The worldometers numbers for the US yesterday were 30,829 newly known cases and 2,201 newly known deaths, for new totals of 1,095,023 and 63,856 respectively. About 3 out of 1000 Americans are known to have or to have had the disease, and about 1 out of 5000 Americans is known to have died of it.

In per capita terms, these are not the worst numbers in the world, though it is worth repeatedly repeating over and over again repeatedly that very few countries can have particularly reliable numbers. Reasons vary from country to country, but there are reasons to entertain some sobering reflections on the US count:



> The researchers found 15,400 excess deaths in the United States from March 1 through April 4, the early weeks of the coronavirus's rampage through this country. During that time, only about half that many deaths -- 8,128 -- had been attributed to Covid-19, according the report.
> 
> The figures suggest the pandemic has been far worse than reported.
> 
> Explanations for the discrepancy range from lack of testing capabilities to various methods of deciding which deaths should be classified as having been caused by the coronavirus.
> 
> ... said Weinberger, from the Yale School of Public Health... "A conservative estimate is that the real number [of Covid-19 deaths] is maybe 1 ½ or two times higher than what the reported numbers are."
> 
> The excess death figures aren't perfect, either, Weinberger said. Did deaths drop because there are fewer traffic accidents with fewer people on the road? Did some people avoid seeking medical care because they were afraid of catching Covid-19 at a hospital, and therefore died from otherwise treatable infections or diseases? It's hard to tell. But the measurement remains a critical method for understanding the broad impact of the coronavirus....


That's a surprisingly good article for CNN. ABC News has a similar one. One thing to note from the ABC article:



> Last week ABC News reported that based on the reporting of 28 states, the death toll in long-term care facilities has already surged past 10,000.
> 
> Yet it was also only last week that the CDC began the laborious process of preparing to incorporate nursing home deaths into its overall death count. The agency issued a notification saying it would soon begin requiring that nursing homes report communicable disease deaths promptly to federal authorities. It's unclear when the U.S. will begin including those figures in its national death count.


And just to brutally remind us all of to the sorts of issues we're facing:



> "Post-mortem, we don't know how long the [COVID-19 diagnostic] test is valid for after death," said CAP's Williamson. "If a person is not found in their house for five days, does the COVID-19 test still work? We don't really know the answer to that." ...
> 
> Even swabbing the nose of a corpse could potentially re-introduce the virus into the air surrounding the body, pathologists said -- urging their colleagues to only conduct such testing in the proper settings.
> 
> One pathologist who spoke with ABC News on the condition of anonymity said a recurring theme online among prominent U.S. academic pathologists is that due to a limited, evolving understanding of how the virus spreads, shortages of personal protective equipment and limited autopsy rooms with appropriate precautions in hospitals, many pathologists "are scared to do the autopsies" for fear of being infected.


That at least some of this could have been prevented should infuriate everyone. As bad as the surrounding issues are -- in particular the way that the "bailouts" have been used to redistribute yet more wealth and power to the USA's ruling class, and that this redistribution has as always been achieved at the expense of the most vulnerable among us -- the immediate human consequences of our collective choices to create this system are difficult to contemplate.

To make it personal, though I'm an American citizen and in no way Korean (not ethnically or in any other sense) I've never felt so grateful to live here than in the past few months. South Korea has plenty of flaws that are easy for me to see, but facing a crisis they (in general) reacted with such admirable prudence, respect for expertise, and above all _care for each other_. I am unaware of even one way that the American response has been superior to theirs. But I am profoundly grateful to know that if I'd gotten sick, or anyone else in my family here, we would've had access to easily affordable world class healthcare, whereas if I were in the US -- unless I would happen to have significantly better insurance than I imagine myself likely to have -- I would probably choose not to get tested even if I got sick because even if I had it I wouldn't be able to afford treatment.

I wish, more passionately than I can decently express, that all my family and friends back in the States had access to such good and such easily affordable care. So far, good fortune has spared most of them from any suffering too unbearable from this, though of course I also know people who've suffered in various ways.

But seeing what people who are _like_ my family -- because whatever I've achieved, my own origins are nothing like middle-class -- are going through, and knowing that this is far from over, and that tragedy can strike any time, and that if it does many of them will not be able to afford treatment, and some of them will not even try to get it... well, all of that is not exactly conducive to dispassionate analyses of the merits of proceeding with still further indifference to the lives of the most vulnerable Americans.

Of course there's nothing I can do but drink away my worries and hope everything turns out alright at least for me and mine. I do pray of course that a just God exists and that there will be a just reckoning some apocalyptic day, but whether that gospel is true remains to be seen.


----------



## Guest

pianozach said:


> Several things here. First paragraph. Yes, it's difficult to get news on reports of viruses. But the President should have made preparations based on intelligence reports and expert warnings. We know that in 2017 the President started defunding, firing, gutting and suppressing agencies and experts that would have provided knowledge, wisdom, and context to potential risks.
> 
> [etc]


Regardless of the accuracy of your description of the inadequacies of government preparedness and Trump's response, none of this substantiates the claims you made in the earlier post that I was asking about.



pianozach said:


> This strain of coronavirus is brand spankin' new.
> 
> We DID have some inklings about this particular strain back in November, and knew it was a threat by the end of December.
> 
> It was predicted several years ago by scientists, and even prior to that by sci-fi authors.
> 
> But we haven't had but a serious couple of months to figure out the parameters of the pandemic, much less how the virus affects people and how to treat or prevent it.
> 
> The fact that there are already studies underway in China, the US, Britain and Germany (and elsewhere I'll bet) is a very good sign.


It seems that the "It" in your third sentence was not the same "it" that any reader would reasonably infer was the same "it" as in the preceding sentence, and that that "it" referred to "This strain of coronavirus" in your first.

You're now shifting to say simply that government should have been making general preparations (true) and the sci-fi authors wrote about plagues (true) - but not that the former should have been taking draconian measures in January, or that the latter predicted Covid-19.


----------



## science

I really don't know why "draconian measures" come up over and over again. It's not like we needed to suspend habeas corpus. We needed to have tests ready so that we could test many people and use the results to identify other people who needed to be tested lest they too spread it. That's it. I don't see that as draconian.

From a bigger POV, of course we should've (long, long ago) created a healthcare system in which _literally everyone inside our borders_ can afford to go to the doctor when they feel sick (confident that their family won't subsequently go bankrupt due to the cost of their care), and we should've been trying to create a society in which a huge portion of the population don't experience "expertise" as oppressive, but I don't see that either of those projects requires anything particularly draconian.

Interesting to reflect that in response to the 9/11 attack we almost immediately surrendered every freedom we'd claimed to cherish, and now this has claimed many times as many lives, but we're portraying the idea of simply testing and tracking the spread of a deadly virus as if it were some new and horrible oppression.


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> I've been living through 3 years of Trump insulting Democrats, women, people of color, jews, muslims, reporters, and even TV shows.
> 
> I think THAT should come to an end. In fact, I think Trump should be fired.


don't worry. He's going down
For Some Reluctant Trump Voters, Coronavirus Was The Last Straw
as the polls go down, some rats are already beginning to flee the sinking ship and the remaining rats are starting to devour each other (Trump wanting to sue Brat Parscale)


----------



## science

I'll move this post to a political group because it's not on topic here.


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> You know I really hope so. Not that Biden is any kind of savior, but he is an apt leader of the party of the lesser evil. And maybe we've finally reached the point when a party of exclusively white people is no longer viable.
> 
> But the built-in GOP advantage in the electoral college, the ever-growing voter suppression and gerrymandering, and the fact that the demographic disaster we're experiencing is not affecting the two parties equally means that I won't believe it until I see it.
> 
> And if I do see it, please God, the basic struggle will go on, since the lesser evil is still evil.
> 
> Anyway, if for any reason you want to discuss this further -- do you have a reason for hope that I don't know of? -- we should probably do so in one of the political groups rather than here.


Big money donors are pressuring Joe Biden against picking Elizabeth Warren for VP: 'He would lose the election'
the corrupted elections are definitely the biggest problem in the US. In most European countries, the political parties get money for election campaigns from the state and are forbidden to accept money from companies (though the oligarchs are finding ways around it). In the US, on the other hand, big business is practically buying their candidates. And foreign states such as Saudi Arabia, Israel or Russia have now noticed how easy the corrupt system can be exploited


----------



## science

I'll move this post to a political group because it is off topic for this thread.


----------



## Kieran

Off topic post!


----------



## Room2201974

^^^^^^^^^^

What *science* is describing above is the slow descent into Fascism Lite, fueled by huge profits made by people who could give a sheet about anything but the bottom line. The 14 characteristics of fascism that I posted above are the principles that over 407,000 Americans died fighting against in WWII.....and in the end...Pogo was right. The Evangelical movement in America since the 1980's has operated a Cold Civil War against the Constitution and the American way of life just like they did in the 1840's and 50's. They have decided that if they can't get what they want, they'll drag the whole nation down with them.......enter DJT. TRUTH!!!!!


----------



## Kieran

Room2201974 said:


> ^^^^^^^^^^
> 
> What *science* is describing above is the slow descent into Fascism Lite, fueled by huge profits made by people who could give a sheet about anything but the bottom line. The 14 characteristics of fascism that I posted above are the principles that over 407,000 Americans died fighting against in WWII.....and in the end...Pogo was right. The Evangelical movement in America since the 1980's has operated a Cold Civil War against the Constitution and the American way of life just like they did in the 1840's and 50's. They have decided that if they can't get what they want, they'll drag the whole nation down with them.......enter DJT. TRUTH!!!!!


I ignore all vain attempts to describe any politicians at work in the higher end these days as "fascists", men and women akin to those who overrun Europe in the 30's, in the same way I ignore attempts to describe any socialist politicians today as being akin to the even greater horror that afflicted the world after WW2 - communism - even though the analogy in that case would be nearer. But it's not near enough (by far) to be any productive use to us...

These modern rhetorical utterances are generally just a ploy to silence people who we don't actually like, and to limit political discourse to what we do actually like...


----------



## science

I'll also move this post and for the same reason.


----------



## starthrower

> I ignore all vain attempts to describe any politicians at work in the higher end these days as "fascists", men and women akin to those who overrun Europe in the 30's


Okay, forget the akin comparison and call them what they are. Cowards and opportunists.


----------



## Kieran

Off topic post!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Is there some new rule that was instituted for this thread while I was asleep that all posts must be essay length treatises on why Trump will be the downfall of democracy and only radical leftist ideology can save us?

I stopped reading about a third of the way through science's first diatribe.


----------



## Art Rock

mmsbls said:


> Let's please get back to discussing the coronavirus and refrain from comments on pure politics and each other.


This has to be posted on every page in order to keep the usual suspects from discussing politics that have zilch to do with the subject at hand. Well, probably it would not even stop them if it were on every page.


----------



## Kieran

Art Rock said:


> This has to be posted on every page in order to keep the usual suspects from discussing politics that have zilch to do with the subject at hand. Well, probably it would not even stop them if it were on every page.


I agree, though I'm enjoying myself now :lol:


----------



## starthrower

> I remember when politicians crossed the aisle to cut deals


No need to remember. It still goes on all the time especially when it comes to bloated military budgets and corporate welfare. I'm speaking for my country of course.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Art Rock said:


> This has to be posted on every page in order to keep the usual suspects from discussing politics that have zilch to do with the subject at hand. Well, probably it would not even stop them if it were on every page.


There is practically two full pages of posts since mmsbls posted that, and maybe only two posts that actually deal with the virus since then.


----------



## starthrower

science said:


> how 'bout that COVID-19, eh? I guess there's nothing anyone could've done to prevent any of this.


Too late for that now but according to a report that Strange Magic posted downstairs the Trump administration has terminated vital funding for EcoHealth Alliance's work in China to do all they can to make sure it doesn't happen again. Is that politically connected enough to the subject at hand?


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Too late for that now but according to a report that Strange Magic posted downstairs the Trump administration has terminated vital funding for EcoHealth Alliance's work in China to do all they can to make sure it doesn't happen again. Is that politically connected enough to the subject at hand?


They discovered thousands of unique viruses in bats. How did that prepare us here? I'm not saying it isn't useful information, but did they identify any of those as being the definite precursor to the next outbreak? I don't think you can work on treatments or vaccines against that many new viruses.


----------



## science

science said:


> The worldometers numbers for the US yesterday....





science said:


> I really don't know why "draconian ....


I have contributed to the political sideshow and I shouldn't have, but I intended these posts to be squarely on the thread's topic. I may have missed, but I was aiming for the target.


----------



## starthrower

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> They discovered thousands of unique viruses in bats. How did that prepare us here? I'm not saying it isn't useful information, but did they identify any of those as being the definite precursor to the next outbreak? I don't think you can work on treatments or vaccines against that many new viruses.


They are identifying Coronaviruses and studying the human population in those areas of the country and how these diseases might be transmitted to humans. And the amount of money that Trump is now withholding is just a few million dollars that he erroneously attributed to being granted by the Obama administration but in fact was granted by his own administration. Once again he is playing politics with a potentially deadly scenario instead of taking responsibility.


----------



## science

Art Rock said:


> This has to be posted on every page in order to keep the usual suspects from discussing politics that have zilch to do with the subject at hand. Well, probably it would not even stop them if it were on every page.


Well, as one of "them" I probably deserve the tone of this post, and FWIW (if anything) I apologize. I've moved my posts hoping to offend you less.


----------



## Kieran

science said:


> I have contributed to the political sideshow and I shouldn't have, but I intended these posts to be squarely on the thread's topic. I may have missed, but I was aiming for the target.


I enjoyed your posts, and obviously some politics has to be mentioned here. I think that realistically - to stay slightly on the politics - it's too early to decide who acted well, and who didn't act well. There'll be a few more rounds with this virus, and if herd immunity is the goal, we won't know who has it best til maybe this time next year (or page 10,457 of this thread :lol: )


----------



## science

Kieran said:


> I enjoyed your posts, and obviously some politics has to be mentioned here. I think that realistically - to stay slightly on the politics - it's too early to decide who acted well, and who didn't act well. There'll be a few more rounds with this virus, and if herd immunity is the goal, we won't know who has it best til maybe this time next year (or page 10,457 of this thread :lol: )


I hope we're all here at that time to look back with 20/20 hindsight and unbiased judgment!


----------



## starthrower

science said:


> I hope we're all here at that time to look back with 20/20 hindsight and unbiased judgment!


Maybe you could create a Top 100 Unbiased Coronavirus Posts list? A handy reference for the next pandemic.


----------



## science

starthrower said:


> Maybe you could create a Top 100 Unbiased Coronavirus Posts list? A handy reference for the next pandemic.


I'd get right on that when I've posted 100 times on this topic.... :devil:


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

science said:


> I have contributed to the political sideshow and I shouldn't have, but I intended these posts to be squarely on the thread's topic. I may have missed, but I was aiming for the target.


Yeah, like I said . . . only about 2 posts since mmsbls' last warning.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> I enjoyed your posts, and obviously some politics has to be mentioned here. I think that realistically - to stay slightly on the politics - it's too early to decide who acted well, and who didn't act well. There'll be a few more rounds with this virus, and if herd immunity is the goal, we won't know who has it best til maybe this time next year (or page 10,457 of this thread :lol: )


I don't think mmsbls has completely banned politics on here, so long as it is relevant to the topic, as opposed to discussing whether or not Republicans and conservatives are fascists and whether democracy in the U.S. will survive the Trump administration.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> They are identifying Coronaviruses and studying the human population in those areas of the country and how these diseases might be transmitted to humans. And the amount of money that Trump is now withholding is just a few million dollars that he erroneously attributed to being granted by the Obama administration but in fact was granted by his own administration. Once again he is playing politics with a potentially deadly scenario instead of taking responsibility.


I spent a brief time in science earlier before I discovered you could earn a better paycheck outside academia (the damn capitalist that I am!). Grants get cut all the time. From what I read, this was a grant renewal that got rejected? Correct me if I'm wrong. But the more than decade ago I was in science, I don't remember the payline being too high - no more than 10%. It wasn't uncommon to have a renewal rejected. Genuine question out of curiosity here - was there evidence that there was something more nefarious behind their losing their grant renewal, or just that it now looks nefarious in hindsight?


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I don't think mmsbls has completely banned politics on here, so long as it is relevant to the topic, as opposed to discussing whether or not Republicans and conservatives are fascists and whether democracy in the U.S. will survive the Trump administration.


In general, yes. Personally, I distinguish policies from politics. Sheltering in place and opening up the economy are policies rather than politics. Obviously, politics can play a role in which policies get adopted, but a discussion of the policies does not have to involve politics. _Some_ politics can be OK if it is firmly focused on Covid and there is no intent to deride a group, party, ideology, or especially TC members.

Pure politics without any reference to Covid should not be discussed here and should be taken to the Groups. Given how strongly people seem to want to discuss politics, I'm a bit surprised more people haven't posted in the Group area.


----------



## Flamme

This thread just exploded in my absence...What happened???


----------



## Art Rock

Flamme said:


> This thread just exploded in my absence...What happened???


Politics..........................


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Flamme said:


> This thread just exploded in my absence...What happened???











....................................................


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## starthrower

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I spent a brief time in science earlier before I discovered you could earn a better paycheck outside academia (the damn capitalist that I am!). Grants get cut all the time. From what I read, this was a grant renewal that got rejected? Correct me if I'm wrong. But the more than decade ago I was in science, I don't remember the payline being too high - no more than 10%. It wasn't uncommon to have a renewal rejected. Genuine question out of curiosity here - was there evidence that there was something more nefarious behind their losing their grant renewal, or just that it now looks nefarious in hindsight?


Why don't you just read the article. It's not that long.


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## Guest

_This is the place for those fun, and not so serious threads, birthday greetings, & general chit-chat_.

The description of the Community Forum. That makes this entire thread off-topic, never mind the politics.

Does there need to be another sub forum or is there already somewhere else more apt?


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## Flamme

I dont think it is '' 2 political''...It is entwined with politix and conspiracy theories but it is good that ppl ''vent'' here and not somehwere else in a quite different manner.


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## Kieran

Flamme said:


> This thread just exploded in my absence...What happened???


Somebody mistakenly went off topic and claimed Beethoven was greater than Mozart. You'll see I removed my replies, which is a huge loss to musicology, but I don't care. Even musical philosophers thought my replies were right. It doesn't matter. And to the music anthropologists, sociologists and epidemiologists who want to cite my replies in their papers - feck off! :devil:


----------



## DaveM

So now someone is questioning the appropriateness of this thread in the Community section. Why? Has having it here somehow negatively impacted anyone’s life as opposed to helping a lot of people’s understanding of a lot of the complexities of the pandemic? Not to mention acting as an outlet for frustration from the effects we are all facing. What is served by bringing this up at all? This thread has served a very useful purpose and KenOC deserves appreciation for starting it. As our great leader would tweet, ‘Very sad.’


----------



## Flamme

Audiatur et altera pars...We should hear ALL views and then judge 4 ourselves what is closest 2 our defitnion of truth...Or ''post truth''...https://ideas.ted.com/are-we-living...-but-thats-because-were-a-post-truth-species/


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## Open Book

KenOC said:


> How things were 60 years ago. We had a better press. We had a better president. Eisenhower responds to a question about Robert E. Lee.


This has nothing to do with the virus, just an observation about American speech. People talked differently in those days. There was a different American accent. Accents evolve.

I'm familiar with this accent from movies of the 20's through at least the 40's. It always sounded fussy and pretentious to me, yet corny. I used to think it was just the way actors were speech-schooled in those days and not the way real people talked. Now that I pay more attention to broadcasts of real people I realize it was indeed how people talked, at least a substantial number of Americans.

Forgive me for going off topic. Just an observation about something that interests me.

Another one: times change. Eisenhower today would not get away with calling Robert E. Lee a great American.


----------



## Open Book

science said:


> But seeing what people who are _like_ my family -- because whatever I've achieved, my own origins are nothing like middle-class -- are going through, and knowing that this is far from over, and that tragedy can strike any time, and that if it does many of them will not be able to afford treatment, and some of them will not even try to get it... well, all of that is not exactly conducive to dispassionate analyses of the merits of proceeding with still further indifference to the lives of the most vulnerable Americans.


Are people with the virus really being refused treatment for inability to pay? That should seem dangerously counterproductive to even the most hardcore opponents of healthcare for all.


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## Flamme

I think the question is bill gates a n altruistic philatropist or something entirely different...


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## KenOC

Open Book said:


> Are people with the virus really being refused treatment for inability to pay? That should seem dangerously counterproductive to even the most hardcore opponents of healthcare for all.


"The Emergency Medical and Treatment Labor Act (EMTLA) passed by Congress in 1986 explicitly forbids the denial of care to indigent or uninsured patients based on a lack of ability to pay. It also prohibits unnecessary transfers while care is being administered and prohibits the suspension of care once it is initiated, provisions that prevent dumping patients who cannot pay on other hospitals..."

https://law.freeadvice.com/malpractice_law/hospital_malpractice/hospital-patients.htm


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## DaveM

Flamme said:


> I think the question is bill gates a n altruistic philatropist or something entirely different...


It is? Why would that be?


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> So now someone is questioning the appropriateness of this thread in the Community section. Why?


It followed on from the discussion about the appropriateness (or otherwise) of the political content. That's all. Sorry to have pointed out the slight absurdity that this is the place for "fun threads". I had no idea that some thought corona virus was fun - at least, in the way it has been discussed so far. I don't mean to suggest that it's a subject beyond humour.


----------



## Open Book

MacLeod said:


> It followed on from the discussion about the appropriateness (or otherwise) of the political content. That's all. Sorry to have pointed out the slight absurdity that this is the place for "fun threads". I had no idea that some thought corona virus was fun - at least, in the way it has been discussed so far. I don't mean to suggest that it's a subject beyond humour.


Anyhow, this thread didn't start out as seriously as it ended up. It probably started with idle curiosity. At the time no one dreamed things would actually progress the way they have. It feels weird to go back and read it from the beginning.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> "The Emergency Medical and Treatment Labor Act (EMTLA) passed by Congress in 1986 explicitly forbids the denial of care to indigent or uninsured patients based on a lack of ability to pay. It also prohibits unnecessary transfers while care is being administered and prohibits the suspension of care once it is initiated, provisions that prevent dumping patients who cannot pay on other hospitals..."
> 
> https://law.freeadvice.com/malpractice_law/hospital_malpractice/hospital-patients.htm


There was something in the news about a young man dying after being refused treatment from a hospital for inability to pay, but I can't believe this is normal or widespread like science the talkclassical member is implying.


----------



## Guest

Open Book said:


> Anyhow, this thread didn't start out as seriously as it ended up. It probably started with idle curiosity. At the time no one dreamed things would actually progress the way they have. It feels weird to go back and read it from the beginning.


It would feel weird to wade through 240 pages of any thread! I confess I didn't read through all of it before joining in. I'm sure I missed all the fun in the earlier pages.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Why don't you just read the article. It's not that long.


I did - that is why I am asking that question. That wasn't clear to me from the article.


----------



## DaveM

MacLeod said:


> It followed on from the discussion about the appropriateness (or otherwise) of the political content. That's all. Sorry to have pointed out the slight absurdity that this is the place for "fun threads". I had no idea that some thought corona virus was fun - at least, in the way it has been discussed so far. I don't mean to suggest that it's a subject beyond humour.


If you think it's so wrong, I think you're just the man to report it.


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## mmsbls

In general we view the Community Forum as a place for all non-musical threads. We exclude politics and religion due to past painful experience moderating such threads. We also review threads to make sure we feel they are appropriate. The vast majority seem to be.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> Are people with the virus really being refused treatment for inability to pay? That should seem dangerously counterproductive to even the most hardcore opponents of healthcare for all.


I doubt it. Anybody who presents with these symptoms is going to be sent to the emergency room, which by law has to take everybody, regardless of ability to pay.

Never let a crisis go to waste - any health-related crisis always brings calls for greater government control of healthcare.


----------



## Guest

mmsbls said:


> In general we view the Community Forum as a place for all non-musical threads. We exclude politics and religion due to past painful experience moderating such threads. We also review threads to make sure we feel they are appropriate. The vast majority seem to be.


Fine by me. I merely asked the question in light of the (umpteenth) exchange about the presence of politics in the thread.


----------



## Flamme

There are sooo many unknowns about this virus...Even scientists act confused, like this thing came from outer space...Thats my impression.


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## KenOC

Open Book said:


> There was something in the news about a young man dying after being refused treatment from a hospital for inability to pay, but I can't believe this is normal or widespread like science the talkclassical member is implying.


I can tell you from direct experience (an indigent relative) that ability to pay is largely unrelated to treatment for a serious disease. He received intensive inpatient treatment for colon cancer and, after that, participated in trials of a more novel treatment. Nothing really worked, though the quality of care he received seemed first-rate.

The medical bills, however, were real if unpaid. The amount owed (which was quite substantial) was claimed against his estate, so any potential inheritances for his children evaporated. Not that there was really anything there in the first place...


----------



## DaveM

MacLeod said:


> Fine by me. I merely asked the question in light of the (umpteenth) exchange about the presence of politics in the thread.


We thank you for your oversight and concern. Keep up the good work.


----------



## KenOC

Here's a very *interesting thought*…
------------------------------------------------------
With the nation growing ever more weary of sweeping stay-at-home orders and a worsening economy, some scientists say our poop could be the key to determining when a community might consider easing health restrictions.

Understanding the true scale of COVID-19 has been a major stumbling block across the country, as officials struggle with testing shortages, false negatives, and people who are infected but have no symptoms. Sewage data could potentially help fill these gaps by capturing critical information in the aggregate…

"With wastewater, you can very quickly get a snapshot of an entire population," said Mariana Matus, who co-founded Biobot Analytics, a wastewater epidemiology start-up inspired by her PhD at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The closest approach to replicating the data from wastewater would be to literally test every single person in a community and then take the average of that. It is very powerful."


----------



## Guest

mmsbls said:


> In general we view the Community Forum as a place for all non-musical threads. We exclude politics and religion due to past painful experience moderating such threads. We also review threads to make sure we feel they are appropriate. The vast majority seem to be.


Except that politics informs everything about us; our values/personal beliefs, ways of life, who we are and why... right down to our personal economic circumstances and choices of friends. These things can be implied or directly stated when we open our mouths or write down our thoughts. Because politics is now so polarized we've all had to shut up. There's an excellent chapter about this in Tucker Carlson's little book, '*Ship of Fools*' and the chapter entitled, "_Shut up, they explained_".

Those of us who don't have the correct political ideology are increasingly told to shut up, and this is what is meant by that insightful chapter in "Ship of Fools" - eloquent and often ironically humorous.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Here's a very *interesting thought*…
> ------------------------------------------------------
> With the nation growing ever more weary of sweeping stay-at-home orders and a worsening economy, some scientists say our poop could be the key to determining when a community might consider easing health restrictions.
> 
> Understanding the true scale of COVID-19 has been a major stumbling block across the country, as officials struggle with testing shortages, false negatives, and people who are infected but have no symptoms. Sewage data could potentially help fill these gaps by capturing critical information in the aggregate…
> 
> "With wastewater, you can very quickly get a snapshot of an entire population," said Mariana Matus, who co-founded Biobot Analytics, a wastewater epidemiology start-up inspired by her PhD at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The closest approach to replicating the data from wastewater would be to literally test every single person in a community and then take the average of that. It is very powerful."


So we could get an idea of how many are infected by analyzing poop? Sounds inexpensive, too. Clever.

One thing I've been watching is the number of active cases, which was hard to find, but someone recently put down a link which keeps track of it -- I think it was you. It only keeps two days' worth of data, though.

I've been particularly watching New York and Massachusetts. Both have seen their number of active cases still increasing despite the fact that New York's new cases and new deaths have been steadily falling. Well, New York did have a decrease in active cases on April 30, but it went up again. A bit strange. I guess it just takes time.

*CORONAVIRUS ACTIVE CASES*

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> One thing I've been watching is the number of active cases, which was hard to find, but someone recently put down a link which keeps track of it -- I think it was you. It only keeps two days' worth of data, though.


A time series of active cases can be seen by clicking on the name of any country on worldometer's front page, which takes you to the page for that county. Unfortunately, that doesn't work for individual states as shown on the USA country page. If anybody knows where those data are gathered together, I'd sure like to hear about it.


----------



## Open Book

MacLeod said:


> It would feel weird to wade through 240 pages of any thread! I confess I didn't read through all of it before joining in. I'm sure I missed all the fun in the earlier pages.


This thread starts off innocently and like a good suspense story the feeling of dread builds as the news gets worse.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> A time series of active cases can be seen by clicking on the name of any country on worldometer's front page, which takes you to the page for that county. Unfortunately, that doesn't work for individual states as shown on the USA country page. If anybody knows where those data are gathered together, I'd sure like to hear about it.


I see. Even for the entire U.S., look how flat the number of new cases has been for about 3 weeks and yet the number of active cases is still steadily increasing. Why hasn't the decline in the new cases caused a dent in the active cases by now? Is it just that people are sick for a long time with this virus?


----------



## KenOC

Open Book said:


> I see. Even for the entire U.S., look how flat the number of new cases has been for about 3 weeks and yet the number of active cases is still steadily increasing. Why hasn't the decline in the new cases caused a dent in the active cases by now? Is it just that people are sick for a long time with this virus?


Seems like new cases, even if occurring at a steady rate, are being added faster than existing cases are being resolved by discharge or death. Like water being poured into a bucket faster than it can run out of the small hole in the bottom.

Odd things can happen, too. Let's say you find a way to significantly reduce the death rate. All things being equal, you have just increased the number of active cases by preventing resolution of those cases that would have otherwise been fatal. Lots of ins and outs it seems.

Anyway, I haven't seen any discussion of this.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> Here's a very *interesting thought*…
> ------------------------------------------------------
> With the nation growing ever more weary of sweeping stay-at-home orders and a worsening economy, some scientists say our poop could be the key to determining when a community might consider easing health restrictions.
> 
> Understanding the true scale of COVID-19 has been a major stumbling block across the country, as officials struggle with testing shortages, false negatives, and people who are infected but have no symptoms. Sewage data could potentially help fill these gaps by capturing critical information in the aggregate…
> 
> "With wastewater, you can very quickly get a snapshot of an entire population," said Mariana Matus, who co-founded Biobot Analytics, a wastewater epidemiology start-up inspired by her PhD at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The closest approach to replicating the data from wastewater would be to literally test every single person in a community and then take the average of that. It is very powerful."


Do we know that it is shed in feces? It is a respiratory virus, after all.


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Do we know that it is shed in feces? It is a respiratory virus, after all.


Yes. Many examples are described in the article referenced.

On another topic. If states were countries: It's interesting to compare the per capita death rates in the hardest-hit US states with countries in Europe that are quite seriously infected.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> Yes. Many examples are described in the article referenced.
> 
> On another topic. If states were countries: It's interesting to compare the per capita death rates in the hardest-hit US states with countries in Europe that are quite seriously infected.


Yet another way that Ohio is superior to Michigan!!!!

Oh we don't give a damn about the whole state of Michigan, whole state of Michigan, whole state of Michigan. We don't give a damn about the whole state of Michigan. We're from O-HI-O!

It sounds a whole lot better when you sing it, so you'll just have to use your imagination! Go Bucks!


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Seems like new cases, even if occurring at a steady rate, are being added faster than existing cases are being resolved by discharge or death. Like water being poured into a bucket faster than it can run out of the small hole in the bottom.
> 
> Odd things can happen, too. Let's say you find a way to significantly reduce the death rate. All things being equal, you have just increased the number of active cases by preventing resolution of those cases that would have otherwise been fatal. Lots of ins and outs it seems.
> 
> Anyway, I haven't seen any discussion of this.


Yeah. And it must be hard to tell when a case is resolved if the sufferer isn't dead. I guess the blood test would tell but who wants to waste blood tests on current patients when they are needed for newly sick people.


----------



## science

I'd previously posted links and made suggestions to the effect that some people in America might reasonably believe that they cannot afford healthcare.

As I was wrong to do so for a variety of reasons, let me first of all wholeheartedly apologize to everyone who already knew that everyone in America has consistent access to the healthcare they need at a price they can afford.

To compensate for my unbecoming behavior, I've not only deleted my posts but replaced them with videos of pleasant music. If you should happen to click "play" on any of them, I hope they bring you unalloyed pleasure.

I know we're all having a great day, safe in the knowledge that ultimately life is fair and everyone gets what they deserve.


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## science




----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

science said:


> whatever hzgv df
> 
> https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491914-coronavirus-double-whammy-unemployed-and-uninsured
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-millions-of-americans-uninsured
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/cov...uld-cost-uninsured-americans-up-to-75000.html
> 
> 75 grand sure no problem we've all got that haven't we no reason to put off treatment or anything
> 
> https://time.com/5813731/teen-denied-insurance-coronavirus/
> 
> That guys propballby another commie
> 
> Time magazine is well know for harboring anti-American commies who think lies like this
> 
> Well people who don't trust the government or cops or doctors are just bad people


Got any specifics about people turned away in significant numbers here with COVID? I know there was a story about a boy sent away from an urgent Care clinic to go to an emergency room, but that may just as well have been because the urgent Care clinic wasn't equipped to handle these cases. Do you have theoretical conjecture or actual evidence in this pandemic showing COVID patients with no insurance being denied care?


----------



## bz3

KenOC said:


> Here's a very *interesting thought*…
> ------------------------------------------------------
> With the nation growing ever more weary of sweeping stay-at-home orders and a worsening economy, some scientists say our poop could be the key to determining when a community might consider easing health restrictions.
> 
> Understanding the true scale of COVID-19 has been a major stumbling block across the country, as officials struggle with testing shortages, false negatives, and people who are infected but have no symptoms. Sewage data could potentially help fill these gaps by capturing critical information in the aggregate…
> 
> "With wastewater, you can very quickly get a snapshot of an entire population," said Mariana Matus, who co-founded Biobot Analytics, a wastewater epidemiology start-up inspired by her PhD at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The closest approach to replicating the data from wastewater would be to literally test every single person in a community and then take the average of that. It is very powerful."


The government can have my poop when they pry it from my cold, dead hands!


----------



## Guest

bz3 said:


> The government can have my poop when they pry it from my cold, dead hands!


My guess is you don't want to discuss what you are doing with your poop in your hands...


----------



## KenOC

Re post #3621:

The EMTALA applies to all hospitals accepting Medicare and Medicaid payments. Since these two sources fund 44% of all medical expenditures in the United States, it applies to essentially all hospitals, public and private. And it applies to _all_ indigent persons, not just those eligible for Medicare or Medicaid.

It has already been pointed out that entering a hospital while indigent does not absolve the patient of responsibility for the cost of treatment. But in practicality, you're not going to get much blood from a stone. Most EMTALA patients are judgment-proof. Uncompensated care accounts for about 6% of total hospital costs.


----------



## science




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## science




----------



## science




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## science




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## KenOC

The original question was whether health care was available to the indigent. Short answer: Yes. They can get health care if they otherwise qualify for admission at almost any hospital. However, they're responsible for payment later.

Covid-19 is a different case. Most insurers have already announced that they're waiving all copays and deductibles for treatment of this disease. But what about the uninsured? It looks like it's *free for them as well*.

"WASHINGTON - Uninsured Americans will be able to seek coronavirus treatment for free, with the federal government agreeing to cover hospitals' expenses, President Trump announced Friday.

"The provision will be covered by a $100 billion fund for healthcare providers that was part of a historic enormous $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package passed by Congress last month."


----------



## Guest

I live in a regional area on the eastern seaboard of Australia, 30 minutes by car from the surf. Sydney is 90 minutes away be freeway. Right now the benefits of living in a regional area are being felt; social distancing is very much easier and the lifestyle more relaxed. The population resides in an urban conurbation of our second largest city in New South Wales. In fact, people are retiring from Sydney and moving up here because of the excellent surf beaches and amenities.

I wouldn't want to live in a huge city like NYC, London, Paris etc. for a single minute. Now I'm feeling vindicated about my stance.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

bz3 said:


> The government can have my poop when they pry it from my cold, dead hands!


I have a septic tank. Guess they can't surveil my crap!


----------



## science




----------



## KenOC

science said:


> In a more recent and no doubt very surprising story:
> 
> White House still scrambling to cover virus treatment for the uninsured
> Patients are getting bills as health providers wait on Trump for information.
> 
> I'll believe those people get the money when I see it.


An interesting article, thanks. I read the whole thing. It seems the money is there and it will be disbursed, but the bureaucracy is grinding away with its usual efficiency.

"Trump officials are still grappling with key questions about how exactly to implement the treatment fund, including how to determine if a patient qualifies for the new federal dollars, an administration source said. Adding to the challenge, they're still figuring out how to divvy up funding that hospitals and physicians say is desperately needed."

And many hospitals do need the money. It seems they cancelled "lucrative" elective procedures to free up resources in case they were flooded with coronavirus cases...


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> An interesting article, thanks.


My pleasure, sir.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> ...I'll believe those people get the money when I see it.



Actually, it looks like the *reimbursement program* became available on Monday past.

"Today, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), through the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), launched a new COVID-19 Uninsured Program Portal, allowing health care providers who have conducted COVID-19 testing or provided treatment for uninsured COVID-19 individuals on or after February 4, 2020 to submit claims for reimbursement. Providers can access the portal at COVIDUninsuredClaim.HRSA.gov."


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> ​
> Actually, it looks like the *reimbursement program* became available on Monday past.
> 
> "Today, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), through the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), launched a new COVID-19 Uninsured Program Portal, allowing health care providers who have conducted COVID-19 testing or provided treatment for uninsured COVID-19 individuals on or after February 4, 2020 to submit claims for reimbursement. Providers can access the portal at COVIDUninsuredClaim.HRSA.gov."


That's very good news. I assume no one will get billed then and that everyone will feel free to seek the treatment they need.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> That's very good news. I assume no one will get billed then and that everyone will feel free to seek the treatment they need.


That appears to be the case. Hospitals will submit claims to the HRSA and will not bill the patient. And all testing and treatment costs from February 4 forward will be covered retroactively.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> That appears to be the case. Hospitals will submit claims to the HRSA and will not bill the patient. And all testing and treatment costs from February 4 forward will be covered retroactively.


Yes, now everyone will indeed trust the healthcare system and seek the treatment they need. I mean, everyone who matters. No doubt there will be a few people who wrongly imagine themselves to have had bad experiences with promises like this in the past, and they might still choose to do otherwise, but really that's just their own fault.

It's nice of the government and media to go so far out of their way to make sure this is widely known, though. You have to give them credit for their Christlike concern for human suffering.

And thank goodness we don't do anything like this for diabetes or back pain. I mean, can you imagine? It's hard for decent people to get the care they deserve as it is.


----------



## KenOC

I have excellent news for you: The world will never run out of victims.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> I have excellent news for you: The world will never run out of victims.


But only about 65,753 right now.

It's like Bolsonaro, who's a fine man by the way, said. We're all going to die someday anyway. We should die like men.

Because really people are just whiners. If they'd work hard and take personal responsibility, everything would be fine.

Now they're blaming the government for not acting quickly to do anything about this coronavirus.

You know, I pity them. I really do. To have that kind of attitude, they weren't brought up right. Nothing you can do for people like that.

And with all we do to help them, too.


----------



## science

What we need to do is liberate people. This virus is hardly even as deadly as the flu and my stock portfolio is not good right now. 

Back to work, boys! Holiday's over!


----------



## DaveM

It’s interesting that after all the warnings about it’s use many if not most major hospital chains are using hydroxychloroquine as a first-line treatment. The Yale system just released its algorithm for treatment. They must be seeing some benefit from it because they stated that they stopped the HIV antivirals because no benefit was seen in a trial of them elsewhere.


----------



## science

Nine new cases and one death in South Korea yesterday.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

science said:


> But only about 65,753 right now.
> 
> It's like Bolsonaro, who's a fine man by the way, said. We're all going to die someday anyway. We should die like men.
> 
> Because really people are just whiners. If they'd work hard and take personal responsibility, everything would be fine.
> 
> Now they're blaming the government for not acting quickly to do anything about this coronavirus.
> 
> You know, I pity them. I really do. To have that kind of attitude, they weren't brought up right. Nothing you can do for people like that.
> 
> And with all we do to help them, too.


Hoo boy, we need a bonfire to get rid of all the straw men hanging around here.


----------



## science

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Hoo boy, we need a bonfire to get rid of all the straw men hanging around here.


Poe's Law should take care of it without risking unwanted attention from the fire department.


----------



## Bigbang

Jacck said:


> don't worry. He's going down
> For Some Reluctant Trump Voters, Coronavirus Was The Last Straw
> as the polls go down, some rats are already beginning to flee the sinking ship and the remaining rats are starting to devour each other (Trump wanting to sue Brat Parscale)


Reading that article was a joke, as in they could not figure out what Trump was from day one. I was not up on Trump before the elections, never watched the "you're fired show" and all that but it became very obvious to me right away. We are all responsible for our views and these people in the article knew what they were getting in Trump. When I meet a Trump supporter I can know almost to a T what type of views they have on religion, ethnic views, guns, and the "tough" old boy ain't going to take no_____ on the world stage. No my President is going to kick some_______. Get it now folks? If you see yourself in this description, did you vote DT? Really? So no I don't buy this BS in the article as I know a few of them and they are still loyalists. Just goes to show how truely bias a human being is and I think such a life is tragic because they are stuck on the wheel and cannot get off. Sad.


----------



## Bigbang

Flamme said:


> There are sooo many unknowns about this virus...Even scientists act confused, like this thing came from outer space...Thats my impression.


Well, maybe your looking at the wrong scientists...I posted about two of them from Korea...no confusion at all.


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## KenOC

I’m not sure “confused” is the right word, but there’s plenty that’s not known about this bug. It's a new virus of course. For example, it’s not known how robust any immunity it brings is, or how long immunity lasts. Also, there's a lot that isn’t known about its effects on the body, though there’s evidence that it can cause lasting damage to multiple organs and systems.

One factoid I read yesterday really brought home the seriousness of all this. A broad study in the UK showed that if your symptoms are severe enough to require hospitalization, there’s a one-third chance you’ll die there. That’s the same proportion as for Ebola hospitalizations.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bigbang said:


> Reading that article was a joke, as in they could not figure out what Trump was from day one. I was not up on Trump before the elections, never watched the "you're fired show" and all that but it became very obvious to me right away. We are all responsible for our views and these people in the article knew what they were getting in Trump. When I meet a Trump supporter I can know almost to a T what type of views they have on religion, ethnic views, guns, and the "tough" old boy ain't going to take no_____ on the world stage. No my President is going to kick some_______. Get it now folks? If you see yourself in this description, did you vote DT? Really? So no I don't buy this BS in the article as I know a few of them and they are still loyalists. Just goes to show how truely bias a human being is and I think such a life is tragic because they are stuck on the wheel and cannot get off. Sad.


Really? Go ahead and predict all those things for me, then. Let's see how close you get.

I'll even make it fair. Pick any member on here you think will be a fair judge and I'll PM them my answers before you write your prediction, then they can post my answers after. That way I can't manipulate them.


----------



## KenOC

In reviewing this thread, I'm struck by the degree of backbiting, imputing base motives, personal attacks based on assumed ideologies, and general testiness and unpleasantness. By contrast, I found that earlier clip of Eisenhower discussing great Americans to be a breath of fresh air from a distant world we'll likely never see again.

Haydn gave his Symphony No. 64 the title _Tempora Mutantur_, so he may have had similar feelings.

Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis;
Quo modo? fit semper tempore pejor homo.

"The Times are Chang'd, and in them Chang'd are we:
How? As Times grow worse, man grows worse we see."


----------



## Bigbang

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Really? Go ahead and predict all those things for me, then. Let's see how close you get.
> 
> I'll even make it fair. Pick any member on here you think will be a fair judge and I'll PM them my answers before you write your prediction, then they can post my answers after. That way I can't manipulate them.


I do not know the posters and too busy to really get that in depth. Also, people lie and do so all the time. So you admitting you are a Trump supporter? And still are after all this? Basically this means the politics (that is conservatism, socialism, inclusive) doctrine means nothing as it is about you. If you read my past post I hinted over and over it is about us. Thus, Trump is reflecting something about you. Those who can engage in honest debates (that is those in politics) can discuss the issues. But now the system has eroded to the point that the party that is Republican is about staying in power for its own sake, and it is tied to those in power...white, believes in an ____kicking God hell bent on revenge (now DT is not that person, Pence is). Guns belong to all law abiding citizen (never mind the debate I said the description). Oh and those other people, you know, those not like you, yea them, not my kind, kick them back to where they came from. Of course might not say it aloud but hard to not feel it. And of course certain white men can have what they want on the side, just don't get caught. We can tell God what is the truth. Oh so lets keep them women from being able to decide what to do with their bodies too. If you drive a pick up truck and it has a confederate flag sticker, you voted for Trump. Ah, tired already...might pick this up again...the women who support the men who like Trump. Oh there are black men who voted for Trump, this has to do with their mentality too. See, keeps coming back to us and no politics involved. The founding fathers would be so discouraged to see our debates so......


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> In reviewing this thread, I'm struck by the degree of backbiting, implying base motives, personal attacks based on assumed ideologies, and general testiness and unpleasantness. By contrast, I found that earlier clip of Eisenhower discussing great Americans to be a breath of fresh air from a distant world we'll likely never see again.
> 
> Haydn gave his Symphony No. 64 the title _Tempora Mutantur_, so he may have had similar feelings.
> 
> Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis;
> Quo modo? fit semper tempore pejor homo.
> 
> "The Times are Chang'd, and in them Chang'd are we:
> How? As Times grow worse, man grows worse we see."


This thread is about at least 65,776 dead Americans and hundreds of thousands more around the world.

The problem with this world is that we're not polite enough to each other.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Bigbang said:


> I do not know the posters and too busy to really get that in depth. Also, people lie and do so all the time. So you admitting you are a Trump supporter? And still are after all this? Basically this means the politics (that is conservatism, socialism, inclusive) doctrine means nothing as it is about you. If you read my past post I hinted over and over it is about us. Thus, Trump is reflecting something about you. Those who can engage in honest debates (that is those in politics) can discuss the issues. But now the system has eroded to the point that the party that is Republican is about staying in power for its own sake, and it is tied to those in power...white, believes in an ____kicking God hell bent on revenge (now DT is not that person, Pence is). Guns belong to all law abiding citizen (never mind the debate I said the description). Oh and those other people, you know, those not like you, yea them, not my kind, kick them back to where they came from. Of course might not say it aloud but hard to not feel it. And of course certain white men can have what they want on the side, just don't get caught. We can tell God what is the truth. Oh so lets keep them women from being able to decide what to do with their bodies too. If you drive a pick up truck and it has a confederate flag sticker, you voted for Trump. Ah, tired already...might pick this up again...the women who support the men who like Trump. Oh there are black men who voted for Trump, this has to do with their mentality too. See, keeps coming back to us and no politics involved. The founding fathers would be so discouraged to see our debates so......


Yeah, that's what I thought you would do. But I thought I would actually give you a chance. You'd rather vent your spleen against people whose beliefs you don't like, so they must be evil.


----------



## science

I hesitate to address Eisenhower's comments on Robert E. Lee because it's way off-topic here and I don't know the date of the interview more specifically than 1957, but a good question is why anyone in 1957 was discussing Robert E. Lee. It's possible that the topic related in part to ongoing dispute over segregation in the South. 1957 was the year that "the Little Rock Nine" tried to enroll at Central High. Here is a fairly good documentary on the Little Rock Nine that will help us remember what America was like at that time.

I don't know whether we're actually worse now than we were then. Some things are better, some are worse.

If you ever happen to be in Little Rock, the Little Rock Central High School National Site is really, really good. I've been to civil rights sites all over the country, and there are some good ones, but I think that one is one of the best.

It's not from 1957 specifically -- it has a wider timeline -- but the documentary on the Freedom Riders is also so good that I don't want to miss a chance to share it.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> I hesitate to address Eisenhower's comments on Robert E. Lee because it's way off-topic here and I don't know the date of the interview more specifically than 1957, but a good question is why anyone in 1957 was discussing Robert E. Lee...


Rather simple. Eisenhower was asked to name some great Americans and he included Robert E. Lee. Regarding the Little Rock Nine, "On September 23, President Eisenhower issued Executive Order 10730, which put the Arkansas National Guard under federal authority, and sent 1,000 U.S. Army troops from the 101st Airborne Division to Little Rock, to maintain order as Central High School desegregated."

I remember these events well, though I was only in my low teens.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> Rather simple. Eisenhower was asked to name some great Americans and he included Robert E. Lee. Regarding the Little Rock Nine, "On September 23, President Eisenhower issued Executive Order 10730, which put the Arkansas National Guard under federal authority, and sent 1,000 U.S. Army troops from the 101st Airborne Division to Little Rock, to maintain order as Central High School desegregated."


Surely the documentary I posted wouldn't mention that and I'll have to check my notes to see whether I've ever covered that in my nearly 20 years of teaching AP US history, but here I fear to go off-topic any further.


----------



## KenOC

Here's an *interesting perspective* on that event from history.com. It goes into some detail concerning Eisenhower's initial lack of enthusiasm for action and his relationship with Gov. Orville Faubus (remember him?) that goaded him to action.

An elementary school song we all sang:

"Whistle while you work
Stevenson's a jerk
Eisenhower's got the power
Whistle while you work."

Well, we couldn't vote, but Eisenhower won anyway.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Yeah, that's what I thought you would do. But I thought I would actually give you a chance. You'd rather vent your spleen against people whose beliefs you don't like, so they must be evil.


i was gone two weeks and come back only to find you still fighting with everyone

good grief


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> i was gone two weeks and come back only to find you still fighting with everyone
> 
> good grief


You were gone? And so you choose your first returning post to be to pick a fight with me? That says more about you than me.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> You were gone? And so you choose your first returning post to be to pick a fight with me? That says more about you than me.


grow up my unhappy friend

peace


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> grow up my unhappy friend
> 
> peace


Well, I was happy. You, apparently, were not, until you could come back in here and make your first returning post an attack on me. Didn't know you obsessed that much over me. Not healthy, my friend. Maybe another two weeks might do some good?


----------



## Room2201974

KenOC said:


> Here's an *interesting perspective* on that event from history.com. It goes into some detail concerning Eisenhower's initial lack of enthusiasm for action and his relationship with Gov. Orville Faubus (remember him?) that goaded him to action.
> 
> An elementary school song we all sang:
> 
> "Whistle while you work
> Stevenson's a jerk
> Eisenhower's got the power
> Whistle while you work."
> 
> Well, we couldn't vote, but Eisenhower won anyway.


Hey, could you imagine the hilarity that would have ensued if the Arkansas racists had been as well armed as the Michigan littled!cks recently were???? I don't think anyone is going to kill for their Covid slogan, "Give me liberty AND give me death." Whereas we know the philosophy of the untermensch always brings forth the best in human destruction.


----------



## Flamme

This is a strange time because although many volks WEAR MASX, their spiritual masx FALL OFF and they show their true faces...That I also wrote on my ex gfs profile...A friend in need is a friend INDEED.


----------



## Art Rock

Some scary statistics...

In Italy and Spain, the end is in sight, and the curve of total deaths versus time is clearly ahead of the USA.

I checked for both countries the peak of the deaths per day, and the cumulative deaths at that time, and compared that to the estimated final death toll (by extrapolating the current curve optimistically to zero deaths). For both countries, I come to a total death toll that is about four times the death toll at the death toll that had occurred up to the peak in the graph (or in other words, the graphs are very asymmetric with a heavy tail, which is also evident by simply looking at them).

I don't think there is a reason to assume that the USA will follow a far more beneficial curve. Taking the USA peak at 21st April, with then a cumulative death count of 45546, I would expect a total death toll in a few months of about 180000. Shifting the USA peak to a week earlier (which is the most optimistic choice looking at the graph), we get a death count then of 32712, which would still suggest 120000 deaths.


----------



## science

Art Rock said:


> Some scary statistics...
> 
> In Italy and Spain, the end is in sight, and the curve of total deaths versus time is clearly ahead of the USA.
> 
> I checked for both countries the peak of the deaths per day, and the cumulative deaths at that time, and compared that to the estimated final death toll (by extrapolating the current curve optimistically to zero deaths). For both countries, I come to a total death toll that is about four times the death toll at the death toll that had occurred up to the peak in the graph (or in other words, the graphs are very asymmetric with a heavy tail, which is also evident by simply looking at them).
> 
> I don't think there is a reason to assume that the USA will follow a far more beneficial curve. Taking the USA peak at 21st April, with then a cumulative death count of 45546, I would expect a total death toll in a few months of about 180000. Shifting the USA peak to a week earlier (which is the most optimistic choice looking at the graph), we get a death count then of 32712, which would still suggest 120000 deaths.


It's also likely that the counts in Italy and Spain were more accurate, so the true American numbers are already higher than they appear now, which would make your calculation even scarier.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

An interesting development.

Rhesus macaque monkeys are heavily used in medical research, and have been critical for discovery and testing of various life-saving vaccines and drug therapies for a wide variety of infectious diseases.

Attempts to breed these monkeys in the U.S. have not met with a lot of success, so there is a heavy reliance on importing these animals. And, wouldn't you know it, China supplies about 60% of those monkeys. And they have cut off shipments of these monkeys. These animals will be critical in the trail phases of any coronavirus vaccine trial. They missed their April shipment of macaques. It remains to be seen whether the May shipment will be made.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Art Rock said:


> Some scary statistics...
> 
> In Italy and Spain, the end is in sight, and the curve of total deaths versus time is clearly ahead of the USA.
> 
> I checked for both countries the peak of the deaths per day, and the cumulative deaths at that time, and compared that to the estimated final death toll (by extrapolating the current curve optimistically to zero deaths). For both countries, I come to a total death toll that is about four times the death toll at the death toll that had occurred up to the peak in the graph (or in other words, the graphs are very asymmetric with a heavy tail, which is also evident by simply looking at them).
> 
> I don't think there is a reason to assume that the USA will follow a far more beneficial curve. Taking the USA peak at 21st April, with then a cumulative death count of 45546, I would expect a total death toll in a few months of about 180000. Shifting the USA peak to a week earlier (which is the most optimistic choice looking at the graph), we get a death count then of 32712, which would still suggest 120000 deaths.


I wonder, though, whether the incorporation of remdesivir into standards of treatment will help bend this curve down quicker. I am crossing my fingers that it will.


----------



## Art Rock

Let's hope for that indeed.


----------



## science

We're all hoping for something like that, and not only for the USA. It's looking bad in Russia now as well and it's quite likely that countries like India and Indonesia (not to mention China) are much worse than the numbers show.


----------



## Flamme

Why is there a rumour that HIV was ''engineered''...Where there is smoke...


----------



## Art Rock

There's also a rumour that 5G is causing the virus. And there's smoke as well there - from the idiots who believe it and set fire to the transmitters.


----------



## arpeggio

It seems that the situation is hopeless. Trump and his supporters exist in an alternant realty. They will take their delusions to their graves and drag the rest of us with them. All we can do is refuse to acknowledge their bogus rationalizations.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Flamme said:


> Why is there a rumour that HIV was ''engineered''...Where there is smoke...


Been around for a long time - numerous such hypotheses. One in particular suggests it was introduced into humans through infected monkey cells that were used to generate the polio vaccine (since disproven). Anytime you get something like this, you will get any number of conspiracy theories.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

arpeggio said:


> It seems that the situation is hopeless. Trump and his supporters exist in an alternant realty. They will take their delusions to their graves and drag the rest of us with them. All we can do is refuse to acknowledge their bogus rationalizations.


Thanks for that utterly useless post!


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Hey, anybody know whether Jacksonville, Florida, has experienced a massive uptick in cases in the wake of them reopening their beaches, with so much hand-wringing and dire predictions?

It seems like congregating indoors has much direr consequences than outdoors.


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> I'm not sure "confused" is the right word, but there's plenty that's not known about this bug. It's a new virus of course. For example, it's not known how robust any immunity it brings is, or how long immunity lasts. Also, there's a lot that isn't known about its effects on the body, though there's evidence that it can cause lasting damage to multiple organs and systems.
> 
> One factoid I read yesterday really brought home the seriousness of all this. A broad study in the UK showed that if your symptoms are severe enough to require hospitalization, there's a one-third chance you'll die there. That's the same proportion as for Ebola hospitalizations.


Everything in this comment is true.


----------



## Jacck

The strange world of the MAGA
Coronavirus gets a promising drug. MAGA world isn't buying it.


----------



## pianozach

9:12 AM PDT

*WORLDWIDE*

Coronavirus Cases: 3,434,841

Deaths: 241,464

*USA*

Coronavirus Cases: 1,136,559

Deaths: 66,261

The "winner" is *San Marino*, with 41 deaths and 580 cases: They have a ratio of 1,208 deaths/1M population. That's twice as high as the 2nd place country, *Belgium* with 370/1M

The Top Ten:

San Marino 1,208/1M
Belgium 670/1M
Andorra 557/1M
Spain 537/1M
Italy 475/1M

UK 405/1M
France 377/1M
Sint Marrten 303/1M
Netherlands 291/1M
Sweden 264/1M

Ireland is #12
USA is #15

However, the *USA* is leading in *number of deaths* (65,753), and (1,897 yesterday)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries.

Of course, I expect that some countries are far better at reporting cases and deaths than others. And comparing *San Marino* to the *USA* needs to be viewed with size, density, and population in mind.

Also, as the *USA* is a very large country that stretches between two oceans with vast geographical, density, and weather differences, it might be far more useful to be viewing the statistics by individual states, to make comparisons with the rest of the world have more relevance.


----------



## Flamme

I read somehwere some ''rapper'' made a comment in the first days ov US outbreak how virus attacks only ''old, white ppl'' but now I read reports it ''targets'' mainly minorities...What is true?


----------



## Open Book

Bigbang said:


> Reading that article was a joke, as in they could not figure out what Trump was from day one. I was not up on Trump before the elections, never watched the "you're fired show" and all that but it became very obvious to me right away. We are all responsible for our views and these people in the article knew what they were getting in Trump. When I meet a Trump supporter I can know almost to a T what type of views they have on religion, ethnic views, guns, and the "tough" old boy ain't going to take no_____ on the world stage. No my President is going to kick some_______. Get it now folks? If you see yourself in this description, did you vote DT? Really? So no I don't buy this BS in the article as I know a few of them and they are still loyalists. Just goes to show how truely bias a human being is and I think such a life is tragic because they are stuck on the wheel and cannot get off. Sad.


The very liberal cast and writers of Saturday Night Live (from New York) was fooled. Trump was guest host months before the election. He did a decent job. He was comfortable with the camera and surprisingly funny. He looked like someone who could laugh at himself and be self-deprecating. The cast weren't retching in his presence, they all seemed to get along OK.

Saturday Night Live has been among Trump's harshest critics since then, but they had a part in helping him look like a regular human being and a plausible presidential candidate. Are they stupid, too, for being fooled?


----------



## pianozach

Flamme said:


> I read somehwere some ''rapper'' made a comment in the first days ov US outbreak how virus attacks only ''old, white ppl'' but now I read reports it ''targets'' mainly minorities...What is true?


It depends on the country.

In the USA, the overwhelming demographic is simply "old" people, especially those in care facilities. Cases aren't being broken down by ethnicity, although eventually someone will do that.


----------



## Sad Al

If the new coronavirus were attacking wild animals like cheetahs we couldn't care less. But there are almost no wild animals left. Instead, the good old bat virus has mutated itself and found a much better target.


----------



## KenOC

pianozach said:


> ...Also, as the *USA* is a very large country that stretches between two oceans with vast geographical, density, and weather differences, it might be far more useful to be viewing the statistics by individual states, to make comparisons with the rest of the world have more relevance.


Here you go.


----------



## DaveM

Open Book said:


> The very liberal cast and writers of Saturday Night Live (from New York) was fooled. Trump was guest host months before the election. He did a decent job. He was comfortable with the camera and surprisingly funny. He looked like someone who could laugh at himself and be self-deprecating. The cast weren't retching in his presence, they all seemed to get along OK.
> 
> Saturday Night Live has been among Trump's harshest critics since then, but they had a part in helping him look like a regular human being and a plausible presidential candidate. Are they stupid, too, for being fooled?


SNL is a comedy show and not part of an important presidential candidate vetting process.


----------



## KenOC

pianozach said:


> It depends on the country.
> 
> In the USA, the overwhelming demographic is simply "old" people, especially those in care facilities. Cases aren't being broken down by ethnicity, although eventually someone will do that.


My county keeps these stats, and I suspect others do as well. Both cases and deaths are assigned to racial/ethnic categories.


----------



## Art Rock

KenOC said:


> Here you go.


Scores of pages back someone asked why Belgium's numbers were so high. Since then it has been reported that most countries (including e.g. the Netherlands) only report deaths that have been confirmed to be Corona-related (people dying in hospital from Corona symptoms, and confirmed by test to have the virus). Belgium includes deaths outside hospitals where the doctors based on the symptoms have strong suspicions that the cause was Corona. It does make sense, because as I posted earlier, at least in the Netherlands, the difference between the weekly number of total deaths the past few weeks compared to the usual numbers of prior years can only be explained for about 60% by the official Corona death count.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> SNL is a comedy show and not part of an important presidential candidate vetting process.


Agreed. Morning Joe (MSNBC) and CNN are much more to blame. They broadcast empty podiums and gave him all kinds of free coverage anytime he wanted it. He didn't have to spend very much on ads because they would put him on air whenever he wanted - in hindsight, it was inevitable that he would get the nomination. In a crowded field, the one who gets the most press was likely to win. They - including the Hillary campaign - wanted Trump to be the nominee, and did what they could to make it happen, because they assumed he would be an easily beatable candidate.


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> The very liberal cast and writers of Saturday Night Live (from New York) was fooled. Trump was guest host months before the election. He did a decent job. He was comfortable with the camera and surprisingly funny. He looked like someone who could laugh at himself and be self-deprecating. The cast weren't retching in his presence, they all seemed to get along OK.
> 
> Saturday Night Live has been among Trump's harshest critics since then, but they had a part in helping him look like a regular human being and a plausible presidential candidate. Are they stupid, too, for being fooled?


I have some recollection of that episode of SNL. Although he seemed 'game' for some mild comedy aimed at him, I also remember that he had final approval of sketches and lines, and used that power liberally.

As an entertainer, he was fair to poor. But the cast is so adept at working with non-actor non-comedian celebrities, they write around any guest host's lack of camera skills. Trump's experience as a TV reality show 'host' did help though. But "surprisingly funny"? No. The skits, dialogue, and situational humor was funny. Trump, no, not really funny. "Funny" happened around him. He delivered his lines without any charisma, charm, humor, or depth; then again, he didn't have to. He wasn't 'unfunny', but you can't really say he got a lot of laughs either.

I don't think the cast, writers, or producers were 'fooled' by him. They knew what they were getting, and knew how to work with that. And, on the whole, they were not very happy to be working with him in the 2nd place (Trump has hosted twice, in 2004 and in 2015).

Trump _*may*_ NOT have been the 'worst' SNL host though. He let the cast make fun of him a bit, and he didn't sue the show. He _seemed_ to be "a good sport".

No, there were other hosts have been banned from the show (Martin Lawrence, Chevy Chase, Adrien Brody), were horribly unfunny (Paris Hilton, Nancy Kerrigan), couldn't remember their lines, went inappropriately off script, or were backstage terrors (Justin Beiber, Milton Berle).

But Trump would *definitely* be in the Top 20 Worst Hosts, along with Rudy Giuliani.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> My county keeps these stats, and I suspect others do as well. Both cases and deaths are assigned to racial/ethnic categories.


Certainly flies in the face that some (including some on this thread) have put forward linking this to racism.


----------



## Flamme

IF there was any ''agenda''(sic!) related 2 ''globalism'' behind this virus it has UTTERLY failed because what we see our countries closing up, entirely, FORTIFYING even, in an unprecented way...I saw on BBC how there are no workers to pick fruits and veggies because romanians and poles reurned home...The xenophobia is on RISE everywhere...Its a question whether we'll ever travel or emigrate 2 any country, like b4, at all???


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Certainly flies in the face that some (including some on this thread) have put forward linking this to racism.


Except that it is Orange County, Southern California, not Mississippi.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Art Rock said:


> _Scores of pages back someone asked why Belgium's numbers were so high_. Since then it has been reported that most countries (including e.g. the Netherlands) only report deaths that have been confirmed to be Corona-related (people dying in hospital from Corona symptoms, and confirmed by test to have the virus). Belgium includes deaths outside hospitals where the doctors based on the symptoms have strong suspicions that the cause was Corona. It does make sense, because as I posted earlier, at least in the Netherlands, the difference between the weekly number of total deaths the past few weeks compared to the usual numbers of prior years can only be explained for about 60% by the official Corona death count.


That was me. Thanks for the info. The UK has now followed Belgium by way of including non-hospital deaths and has amended all daily figures going back to early March - this has added well over 5000 to the overall figure so far.


----------



## science

At the "Re-open Illinois protest," one protestor carried a sign that read "Arbeit macht frei, JB," apparently directed at JB Pritzker, who is Jewish. 

I realize everyone probably already knows, but just in case anyone doesn't, "Arbeit macht frei" means "Work sets you free," and it was the slogan of some Nazi concentration camps including Auschwitz and Dachau. 

The woman carrying the sign apparently assured questioners that she was not a Nazi and that she has Jewish friends.


----------



## Art Rock

science said:


> At the "Re-open Illinois protest," one protestor carried a sign that read "Arbeit macht frei, JB," apparently directed at JB Pritzker, who is Jewish.
> 
> I realize everyone probably already knows, but just in case anyone doesn't, "Arbeit macht frei" means "Work sets you free," and it was the slogan of some Nazi concentration camps including Auschwitz and Dachau.
> 
> The woman carrying the sign apparently assured questioners that she was not a Nazi and that she has Jewish friends.


Already debunked as fake news: text was photoshopped.

Link: https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8845710091


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

science said:


> At the "Re-open Illinois protest," one protestor carried a sign that read "Arbeit macht frei, JB," apparently directed at JB Pritzker, who is Jewish.
> 
> I realize everyone probably already knows, but just in case anyone doesn't, "Arbeit macht frei" means "Work sets you free," and it was the slogan of some Nazi concentration camps including Auschwitz and Dachau.
> 
> The woman carrying the sign apparently assured questioners that she was not a Nazi and that she has Jewish friends.





Art Rock said:


> Already debunked as fake news: text was photoshopped.
> 
> Link: https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8845710091


Wow, science! I guess that story was just too good to verify, huh? Run with it. A lie truly makes it halfway around the world before the truth gets its boots on.


----------



## KenOC

Speaking of fake news, see *this Fox News story* on China's supposed bad behavior during the first month of the coronavirus outbreak. The story is getting top billing today.

Actually I don't know if it's fake or not, or to what degree, but there's the usual total reliance on anonymous sources and so forth. However, it doesn't really strain the credibility like those stories out of Kuwait early in the Iraqi invasion of Iraqi soldiers entering hospitals and sawing off the tops of the heads of newborn babies. That was widely reported at the time as real news.

The point is, we seem to have purposely entered a new cold war with China, and in war truth and objectivity are among the first casualties. The mention of a "Five Eyes" memo suggests that the English-speaking countries are leading the Western charge, but indications are that other countries, such as Germany, will join in as well. The likely aim is to cripple China economically and to promote its treatment as a "pariah nation," hopefully forcing it to lower its ambitions in the South and East Pacific.


----------



## Flamme

If trump is a russian machurian cnadidate, why is he so fiercely attacking China and Iran, 2 pillars of russian world domination strategy...Very strange things are happening...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> If trump is a russian machurian cnadidate, why is he so fiercely attacking China and Iran, 2 pillars of russian world domination strategy...Very strange things are happening...


Trump is not an agent, but likely an unwitting asset. Maybe Putin owns some kompromat. It does not really matter. Putin only pretends that he likes China. The fact is that China is a danger for Russia (the Chinese are stealing terrority in the Russian far east). And he would love nothing more than to lock the West into conflict with China, while he would be able to play it both sides and gain profit. 
Personally, I would quarantine both countries.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

science said:


> At the "Re-open Illinois protest," one protestor carried a sign that read "Arbeit macht frei, JB," apparently directed at JB Pritzker, who is Jewish.
> 
> I realize everyone probably already knows, but just in case anyone doesn't, "Arbeit macht frei" means "Work sets you free," and it was the slogan of some Nazi concentration camps including Auschwitz and Dachau.
> 
> The woman carrying the sign apparently assured questioners that she was not a Nazi and that she has Jewish friends.


The fact that those on the left would create such a horrible fake photo, and that others on the left would so readily believe it hook, line and sinker without checking the truthfulness first tells us so much more about those on the left who promoted and perpetuated this lie than those they were initially targeting.


----------



## science

Art Rock said:


> Already debunked as fake news: text was photoshopped.
> 
> Link: https://apnews.com/afs:Content:8845710091


The photoshopped image that the AP is debunking was from Pittsburgh. They're not debunking the one from Illinois. The article you linked to reads:



> In a separate incident in Illinois, some protesters were, in fact, holding up signs with Nazi slogans.
> 
> At a "Reopen Illinois" protest on Friday in Illinois, Nazi slogans were present. At least two signs bearing Nazi slogans were displayed. One sign that was widely shared stated "Arbeit macht frei, J.B." Another said "Heil, Pritzker" and featured a swastika.





Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Wow, science! I guess that story was just too good to verify, huh? Run with it. A lie truly makes it halfway around the world before the truth gets its boots on.


LOL.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> The fact that those on the left would create such a horrible fake photo, and that others on the left would so readily believe it hook, line and sinker without checking the truthfulness first tells us so much more about those on the left who promoted and perpetuated this lie than those they were initially targeting.


What do you think now?


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> The point is, we seem to have purposely entered a new cold war with China, and in war truth and objectivity are among the first casualties. The mention of a "Five Eyes" memo suggests that the English-speaking countries are leading the Western charge, but indications are that other countries, such as Germany, will join in as well. The likely aim is to cripple China economically and to promote its treatment as a "pariah nation," hopefully forcing it to lower its ambitions in the South and East Pacific.


Does anyone think manufacturing jobs lost to China will return through a combination of xenophobia and nationalism as a product of this pandemic? So that some of the people who lost their jobs in service industries will eventually have new employment opportunities.

Goodbye cheap goods then, but hello jobs.


----------



## science

Open Book said:


> Does anyone think manufacturing jobs lost to China will return through a combination of xenophobia and nationalism as a product of this pandemic? So that some of the people who lost their jobs in service industries will eventually have new employment opportunities.
> 
> Goodbye cheap goods then, but hello jobs.


We'll need another thread to discuss the effects of automation. The world is changing very, very fast.


----------



## science

South Korea is currently wrapping up what was essentially a 5-day holiday for many workers, and a lot of people went out and did normal social things. Supposedly the Hongdae district, a popular area for university-age people to hang out, was packed. So now the question is whether there will be a big spike in new cases (particularly in Seoul) in the next 2 weeks. If not, then South Korea is probably in the clear. If so, then it might be almost back to square one.


----------



## Kieran

Open Book said:


> Does anyone think manufacturing jobs lost to China will return through a combination of xenophobia and nationalism as a product of this pandemic? So that some of the people who lost their jobs in service industries will eventually have new employment opportunities.
> 
> Goodbye cheap goods then, but hello jobs.


Or maybe not "xenophobia" at all, but finally just good sensible government, looking after their own workers? I think that sounds like it's well overdue. Governments are elected to be nationalistic, and even sweeter when it's at the expense of China...


----------



## Room2201974

Open Book said:


> Does anyone think manufacturing jobs lost to China will return through a combination of xenophobia and nationalism as a product of this pandemic? So that some of the people who lost their jobs in service industries will eventually have new employment opportunities.
> 
> Goodbye cheap goods then, but hello jobs.


You are missing the reason why those jobs disappeared to begin with - to increase corporate profits and provide rich dividends for investors. None of that is going away and none of those jobs are coming back.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Speaking of fake news, see *this Fox News story* on China's supposed bad behavior during the first month of the coronavirus outbreak. The story is getting top billing today.
> 
> Actually I don't know if it's fake or not, or to what degree, but there's the usual total reliance on anonymous sources and so forth. However, it doesn't really strain the credibility like those stories out of Kuwait early in the Iraqi invasion of Iraqi soldiers entering hospitals and sawing off the tops of the heads of newborn babies. That was widely reported at the time as real news.
> 
> The point is, we seem to have purposely entered a new cold war with China, and in war truth and objectivity are among the first casualties. The mention of a "Five Eyes" memo suggests that the English-speaking countries are leading the Western charge, but indications are that other countries, such as Germany, will join in as well. The likely aim is to cripple China economically and to promote its treatment as a "pariah nation," hopefully forcing it to lower its ambitions in the South and East Pacific.


Wrong. Nobody wants to cripple China economically; most people with half a human brain know how dangerous it would be to have a hungry and aggressive China. The western world wants open information from China about a pandemic which started there and has the potential to, in fact, destroy the global economy - leaving it dependent upon China. That nation's excursions into the international waters beyond its territory have two aims:

1. To provide an existential threat for domestic consumption; with a growing middle class China cannot afford to have its natives restive about basic freedoms:
2. To promulgate its own importance militarily in hopes of a new Chinese hegemony, also through the Belt and Road projects.

Finally, the idea of moving manufacturing back to high-income nations is risible. That horse has bolted and we've all made a pact with the devil. No good complaining about the terms when that happens.


----------



## KenOC

Another take on the increasingly strident anti-China rhetoric from the standpoint of American *presidential politics* (from the BBC):
------------------------------------------------------
Mr Trump's allies in the America First Action (AFA) political committee have been rolling out advertisements lashing "Beijing Biden" for "leading the charge" of a Washington elite too willing to accommodate a predatory China.

Mr Biden has hit back with an advert that accuses the president of trying to deflect blame for his own slow response to the pandemic, and of being too trusting of China's initial information about the virus.

The common element in these starkly different positions is that both campaigns believe it's good politics to argue their man will be strongest in taking on Beijing.


----------



## Bigbang

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Really? Go ahead and predict all those things for me, then. Let's see how close you get.
> 
> I'll even make it fair. Pick any member on here you think will be a fair judge and I'll PM them my answers before you write your prediction, then they can post my answers after. That way I can't manipulate them.


You got this a little backwards. I am using my judgement based on knowing people beliefs/experiences/actions/observations I can see that many fall in categories and one is supporting Trump. It is simple really. You pulled that whatever response you replied to me out of Trump's playbook. Anyway, enjoy your beliefs as all are entitled to them.


----------



## KenOC

*Wrong things to say* in times like these:
----------------------------------------------------------
City council members in Antioch, a city of about 110,000 people 35 miles east of Oakland, voted unanimously Friday night to remove Ken Turnage II from his post as chairman of the city's planning commission…

He wrote on Facebook: "the World has been introduced to a new phrase Herd Immunity which is a good one. In my opinion we need to adapt a Herd Mentality. A herd gathers it ranks, it allows the sick, the old, the injured to meet its natural course in nature."

As for homeless people, he added that the virus would "fix what is a significant burden on our society and resources that can be used."
----------------------------------------------------------
No lily-livered liberal he!


----------



## science

There'd also be a military-industrial complex angle to that, and it might be worth considering whether the rulers of China are in many ways the Chinese people's worst enemies, but to bring it back to coronavirus, a long time has passed now without any rumors that China has misled us about their coronavirus numbers.


----------



## Bigbang

Open Book said:


> The very liberal cast and writers of Saturday Night Live (from New York) was fooled. Trump was guest host months before the election. He did a decent job. He was comfortable with the camera and surprisingly funny. He looked like someone who could laugh at himself and be self-deprecating. The cast weren't retching in his presence, they all seemed to get along OK.
> 
> Saturday Night Live has been among Trump's harshest critics since then, but they had a part in helping him look like a regular human being and a plausible presidential candidate. Are they stupid, too, for being fooled?


Well, you are assuming they were fooled. Business is business. Same for his show, where are all the haters? First, Trump likes to be in control so no doubt he calls the shot favorable to him. And in his earlier life people saw what Trump wanted people to see so he always come out top. And in celebrity world people can be jerks and people will idolize the image. But once he decided to become president he could not control what would happen and of course he did not like it one bit. My point is where I see some real problems (then and NOW) with his mind/perceptions/attitude, others who support him see a person who will not take any crap from around the world. Keep them from coming in and getting my job. And so on.

But get this: Donald Trump and Bill and Hillary Clinton were friends before he decided to run for president. Hmm. Guess when power/money is in play "friends" is not exactly the right word but they chatted at parties and who knows what else went on. Well, that went down real quick? How can a President Clinton not "see" into Donald Trump that we all get to see on TV for real. And this is the real DT from way back when.

You know, as this drags on and the poll numbers begin to show the beginning of the end (I cannot even imagine 4 more years, way too scary) DT is bound to become even more strange and bizarre because he cannot control everything so he has to throw stuff out there to distract from him. Another thing is DT is getting older (as we all are) and I suspect he is not taking it too well. To top is off he is purported to eat junk food and diet sodas a lot these days. A billionaire who can cater the best foods and he is going to eat junk. I am of the belief people do things from the unconscious mind; well, this habit makes me wonder if he is trying to eat himself out of the white house.


----------



## science

I think I'm going to venture out today for merely social purposes for the first time since February 27th. That's 63 days, I think -- maybe someone here will factcheck that for me! I've been out of course for errands and such, and this is probably still an unnecessary risk... but I'll be locked at home again for the next week and I need to see my friends again!


----------



## aleazk

Christabel said:


> Wrong. Nobody wants to cripple China economically; most people with half a human brain know how dangerous it would be to have a hungry and aggressive China. The western world wants open information from China about a pandemic which started there and has the potential to, in fact, destroy the global economy - leaving it dependent upon China. That nation's excursions into the international waters beyond its territory have two aims:
> 
> 1. To provide an existential threat for domestic consumption; with a growing middle class China cannot afford to have its natives restive about basic freedoms:
> 2. To promulgate its own importance militarily in hopes of a new Chinese hegemony, also through the Belt and Road projects.
> 
> Finally, the idea of moving manufacturing back to high-income nations is risible. That horse has bolted and we've all made a pact with the devil. No good complaining about the terms when that happens.


I agree with that. I only want from China to adopt internationally accepted, "Western", rules regarding sanitary conditions of meat markets, and also to abide the international bans on exotic/endangered animals trade. Just by doing that this pandemic thing would have never happened. And for China it should be doable, since it's about strict controls and penalties, their speciality. Now, the thing is how we, "the West", enforce them to do that? If they have half a gram of decency, they should be doing it now by their own, considering the worldwide devastation that this pandemic caused (China included.) And it indeed seems they at least closed the infamous Wuhan market. But I also saw some problematic things. For example, Australia called for an indepedent and scientific investigation in China in order to know how exactly the virus jumped to humans. It's an utter common sense thing. China's response has been intimidatory to Australia, by talking about erasing chinese tourism to Australia and more nonsense of that stype. So, it seems economic sanctions may be an option, but it seems difficult.


----------



## science

I'd be really surprised if even the entire "western world" presenting a united front could bully China into doing anything they don't want to do. Their rulers are far more afraid of their own people than they are of us, and appearing weak in their dealings with us would not help them domestically at all. 

Anyway, even if we choose to do the "blame China" thing just as hard as we can, maybe we can spare just a little tiny tiny bit of intellectual energy to ask if our own healthcare systems could be made somewhat more prepared for the next such emergency. Every few years now something appears and there is absolutely no reason to believe that COVD-19 is the deadliest virus that evolution can cook up, nor that browbeating China is going to do anything to help us deal with whatever comes next.


----------



## bz3

science said:


> At the "Re-open Illinois protest," one protestor carried a sign that read "Arbeit macht frei, JB," apparently directed at JB Pritzker, who is Jewish.
> 
> I realize everyone probably already knows, but just in case anyone doesn't, "Arbeit macht frei" means "Work sets you free," and it was the slogan of some Nazi concentration camps including Auschwitz and Dachau.
> 
> The woman carrying the sign apparently assured questioners that she was not a Nazi and that she has Jewish friends.


In poor taste (if true) but the Pritzker family are among the very worst we have in this country.


----------



## science

There is no "if true" about it. The doctored photos that the AP fact-checked were about a protest in Pennsylvania. The authentic ones that no one alleges were doctored are from Illinois. 

Interesting that wielding Nazi slogans is "bad taste." Like a fart joke at a cocktail party. I don't know. Anyway.


----------



## bz3

science said:


> There is no "if true" about it. The doctored photos that the AP fact-checked were about a protest in Pennsylvania. The authentic ones that no one alleges were doctored are from Illinois.
> 
> Interesting that wielding Nazi slogans is "bad taste." Like a fart joke at a cocktail party. I don't know. Anyway.


Let's just say that after Jussie Smollett I'm a bit skeptical of these cutesy 'hate' acts. RE: poor taste, what more do you want? Jews are the most privileged ethnic group in America and Holocaust education is mandatory in most primary schools around the country. Sure it's in bad taste to joke about any great tragedy but we never see any crocodile tears over the the deaths from the American Civil War in the media, and that actually had something to do with this country. Color me exasperated.


----------



## science

bz3 said:


> Let's just say that after Jussie Smollett I'm a bit skeptical of these cutesy 'hate' acts. RE: poor taste, what more do you want? Jews are the most privileged ethnic group in America and Holocaust education is mandatory in most primary schools around the country. Sure it's in bad taste to joke about any great tragedy but we never see any crocodile tears over the the deaths from the American Civil War in the media, and that actually had something to do with this country. Color me exasperated.


I see. Very interesting.

We'd probably better turn this discussion back toward COVID-19.


----------



## bz3

science said:


> I see. Very interesting.
> 
> We'd probably better turn this discussion back toward COVID-19.


I don't mean to sound insensitive but pity parties for the Hyatt Hotel chain heirs don't move the needle much for me. But I agree back to the virus, where every day looks like more evidence that most everyone got it wrong and Sweden got it right. We tanked the small business economy for no good reason.


----------



## Guest




----------



## KenOC

An interesting comparison of the seasonal flu with Covid-19, from a local source:

From October 2019 to early April 2020, the CDC estimates the flu killed anywhere from 24,000 to 62,000 people in the United States. That means that during the flu season, the flu caused between 128 and 331 deaths per day.

About 63,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 from the first known death in February through May 1, according to case counts by The New York Times. This means from Feb. 6 through April 30, an average of about 828 people have died per day from coronavirus in the United States.


----------



## science

I can't believe anyone would think the problem with those signs is that they threaten any particular family. 

Or, on a lighter note, that Swedish healthcare policy has become a model to conservatives!


----------



## aleazk

science said:


> I'd be really surprised if even the entire "western world" presenting a united front could bully China into doing anything they don't want to do. Their rulers are far more afraid of their own people than they are of us, and appearing weak in their dealings with us would not help them domestically at all.


Yes, I agree with that. That's why I said I found it difficult.



science said:


> Anyway, even if we choose to do the "blame China" thing just as hard as we can, maybe we can spare just a little tiny tiny bit of intellectual energy to ask if our own healthcare systems could be made somewhat more prepared for the next such emergency. Every few years now something appears and there is absolutely no reason to believe that COVD-19 is the deadliest virus that evolution can cook up, nor that browbeating China is going to do anything to help us deal with whatever comes next.


I don't think it's the healthcare system. A global network for dealing with pandemics is needed, everyone knew it, but nobody did it. At least that's what Bill Gates says. Furthermore, since the SARS cov 1, which came from a wild animal in one of those wet markets, everyone knew that the next pandemic would come from a similar source if nothing changed, there are lots of papers by chinese scientists as early as 2009. This pandemic was the most obvious thing in the world. It's shocking how nothing was done, both in China and the rest of the world, considering the previous SARS cov 1 virus. It's not about "blaming China", it's about dealing with all the issues that spawned this horror. A lot needs to be done in all fronts.


----------



## science

Focusing on China too much could also be counterproductive in that there is no reason to believe diseases have to start there. MERS didn't, Ebola didn't, swine flu didn't, mad cow disease didn't, and HIV didn't.


----------



## Jacck

aleazk said:


> I don't think it's the healthcare system. A global network for dealing with pandemics is needed, everyone knew it, but nobody did it. At least that's what Bill Gates says. Furthermore, since the SARS cov 1, which came from a wild animal in one of those wet markets, everyone knew that the next pandemic would come from a similar source if nothing changed, there are lots of papers by chinese scientists as early as 2009. This pandemic was the most obvious thing in the world. It's shocking how nothing was done, both in China and the rest of the world, considering the previous SARS cov 1 virus. It's not about "blaming China", it's about dealing with all the issues that spawned this horror. A lot needs to be done in all fronts.


such a global system existed in the era when politicians were more englightened. Nowadays, nationalist populists rule the world, and those undermine global institutions such as the UN, WHO etc. which were established to deal with global problems. Either these nationalist populists are an aberration and the world will get rid of them and we might enter a more enlightened era, or they will continue to gain more power and then the world will be doomed (leading to an ecological catastrophe and wars)


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> such a global system existed in the era when politicians were more englightened. Nowadays, nationalist populists rule the world, and those undermine global institutions such as the UN, WHO etc. which were established to deal with global problems. Either these nationalist populists are an aberration and the world will get rid of them and we might enter a more enlightened era, or they will continue to gain more power and then the world will be doomed (leading to an ecological catastrophe and wars)


I don't think it's so simple as that, in fairness. Even within the EU, nationalist responses overrode the failure of the Big Institution, to the extent that the EU issued an apology to Italy for utterly abandoning her when she stood on the precipice. I don't necessarily see all forms of nationalism as being bad, but I also certainly don't think we should idealise these very fallible global institutions either...


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> Does anyone think manufacturing jobs lost to China will return through a combination of xenophobia and nationalism as a product of this pandemic? So that some of the people who lost their jobs in service industries will eventually have new employment opportunities.
> 
> Goodbye cheap goods then, but hello jobs.


not happening

......


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> I don't think it's so simple as that, in fairness. Even within the EU, nationalist responses overrode the failure of the Big Institution, to the extent that the EU issued an apology to Italy for utterly abandoning her when she stood on the precipice. I don't necessarily see all forms of nationalism as being bad, but I also certainly don't think we should idealise these very fallible global institutions either...


the problem with institutions such as EU, UN, WHO etc is that the national states do not really want to give these institution any actual power, and then when a crisis happens they blame them for inaction. The budget of the WHO is about the same as a budget of a major US hospital


----------



## KenOC

Russia just added 10,633 new cases this day. Ouch! As mentioned earlier, the PM is down with Covid-19.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Russia just added 10,633 new cases this day. Ouch! As mentioned earlier, the PM is down with Covid-19.


we have pretty strained relationships with the Mordor at the current moment
As Putin Seeks to Reinvent History, Russia-Czech Relations Hit a New Low
I wish the virus would collapse the Putin system, but it is likely only wishful thinking


----------



## Flamme

Jacck said:


> Trump is not an agent, but likely an unwitting asset. Maybe Putin owns some kompromat. It does not really matter. Putin only pretends that he likes China. The fact is that China is a danger for Russia (the Chinese are stealing terrority in the Russian far east). And he would love nothing more than to lock the West into conflict with China, while he would be able to play it both sides and gain profit.
> Personally, I would quarantine both countries.


What countries we taling about?
Ok 2 some extent I understand trump doing putins bidding on China the ''common enemy'' althogh russian press mocks him all the time, truzmp i mean, but Iran, Venezeuela? No logic in there...Trump is like a mad dog about Iran, theere is some jewish influence in there but who knows...He was ''crucified'' when russian help arrived 2 US but what could he do, turn them down???


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> What countries we taling about?
> Ok 2 some extent I understand trump doing putins bidding on China the ''common enemy'' althogh russian press mocks him all the time, truzmp i mean, but Iran, Venezeuela? No logic in there...Trump is like a mad dog about Iran, theere is some jewish influence in there but who knows...He was ''crucified'' when russian help arrived 2 US but what could he do, turn them down???


We are talking Russia and China. One is fascist regime, the other is a communist regime. The world should deal with them the same way it dealt with USSR during the Cold War, ie isolate and contain. The US obsession about Iran has nothing to do with Russia. There are some historical reasons like the hostage crisis, and there is also the pressure from Israel and Saudi lobby, who have strong influence in US politics.


----------



## Flamme

Trump if I rememebr correctly expelled 60 russian diplomats after the UK POISONING and signed many new sanctions, stopped russian gas pipes in baltic sea as well...That is pretty tough...


----------



## elgar's ghost

Jacck said:


> we have pretty strained relationships with the Mordor at the current moment
> As Putin Seeks to Reinvent History, Russia-Czech Relations Hit a New Low
> I wish the virus would collapse the Putin system, but it is likely only wishful thinking


It always seems to be a case of macho posturing from Russia when it comes to this sort of thing - it would be pathetic if it wasn't so sinister. And as far as Covid-19 is concerned I wouldn't be surprised if their authorities put it about that the low death rate compared to total cases is due to their inner strength and powers of recovery (assuming their figures are credible to begin with).


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> It always seems to be a case of macho posturing from Russia when it comes to this sort of thing - it would be pathetic if it wasn't so sinister. And as far as Covid-19 is concerned I wouldn't be surprised if their authorities put it about that the low death rate compared to total cases is due to their inner strength and powers of recovery (assuming their figures are credible to begin with).


the Russian statistics cannot be trusted. When I saw their number of tests, I immediately knew that that is a fabrication. They have some inferiority complex, and always try to prove to the world (and especially the US) that they are better. I sometimes read this blog about Russia. The author translates various Russian news and offers windows into Eurasia
https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/05/moscows-pandemic-statistics-fairytales.html


----------



## KenOC

Flamme said:


> What countries we taling about?
> Ok 2 some extent I understand trump doing putins bidding on China the ''common enemy'' althogh russian press mocks him all the time, truzmp i mean, but Iran, Venezeuela? No logic in there...Trump is like a mad dog about Iran, theere is some jewish influence in there but who knows...He was ''crucified'' when russian help arrived 2 US but what could he do, turn them down???


It's true that China and Russia are not naturally the best of friends and have often been in opposition both militarily and diplomatically.

After the Second Opium War, China was forced to cede quite a bit of its territory to Russia by the first Convention of Beijing in 1860, one of several "unequal treaties". That included the lands where the city of Vladivostok is found today.

China has not forgotten. During the Cultural Revolution it printed maps showing the ceded lands as Chinese territory. In 1969 it even engaged in a shooting war with the USSR at the Ussuri River, which forms part of the China/Russia border under the Convention.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> the problem with institutions such as EU, UN, WHO etc is that the national states do not really want to give these institution any actual power, and then when a crisis happens they blame them for inaction. The budget of the WHO is about the same as a budget of a major US hospital


This is a catch-22, I agree, but the problem facing these organisations is , what kind of power do we want to give them? surely not so much that they override any nations sovereignty, but enough to be useful to all nations. Obviously the EU is different to servile institutions such as WHO and the UN, and as such, the idea of "community" was shown to transactional in all the most obscene ways, when it came to how their neighbours let Italy down. Without litigating anything off topic regarding the EU, in so many ways I agree with the nationalist impulses of Germany and France, but at the same time I'm disgusted at the way the so-called "ideals" of the EU are always merely convenience to these nations...


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> we have pretty strained relationships with the Mordor at the current moment
> As Putin Seeks to Reinvent History, Russia-Czech Relations Hit a New Low
> I wish the virus would collapse the Putin system, but it is likely only wishful thinking


Totally agree. Putin is as bogey and foul-smelling as the most grinning Chinese diplomat, and hopefully Covid will hasten his demise....


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> Totally agree. Putin is as bogey and foul-smelling as the most grinning Chinese diplomat, and hopefully Covid will hasten his demise....


he is not getting younger and will not be here forever and soon he will be like the Soviet gerontocrats. He has been suffocating Russia for 20 years now and might for another 10. Historically, he will be seen as the gravedigger of Russia. In 1989 they had the chance to transform into a liberal democracy, but Putin and his mafia chose to build USSR 2.0 instead. Fatal decision. Russia is in sharp decline and will likely disintegrate further in the future (splitting into more territories). Other states such as China are waiting for it to happen. The only problem will be what to do with all the nuclear arsenal.


----------



## Jacck

Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/cor...ntract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html
that is what I have been saying, at least it is true for economies like Sweden or Czech Republic which are based on export. If there is not demand and the supply chains are disrupted globally, you cannot sell you goods and the economy will suffer. Maybe large countries with big internal market have advantage


----------



## pianozach

Flamme said:


> Trump if I rememebr correctly expelled 60 russian diplomats after the UK POISONING and signed many new sanctions, stopped russian gas pipes in baltic sea as well...That is pretty tough...


I tend to view the back and forth between Trump and Russia as more of a Reality Show. Fake drama and posturing, manufactured conflicts, and showy distractions, while there's a hidden and far more corrupt game being played behind the scenes.

There is big money at stake here. Yeah, a Reality Show - staged situations, planted items. And the Payola of the 1950s and early 1960s.

So . . . Trump expels some Russian diplomats. BFD.

Meanwhile, we had a meeting in the White House with Russian diplomats, and no press allowed, a private summit between Trump and Putin . . . Giuliani's close ties with Lev Parnas, including being funded by him. That entire "perfect call" with Ukraine. Trump's financial ties to Deutsche bank, which has massive ties to Russian oligarchs.

C'mon . . . Trump has never "been tough" on Russia.


----------



## aleazk

science said:


> Focusing on China too much could also be counterproductive in that there is no reason to believe diseases have to start there. MERS didn't, Ebola didn't, swine flu didn't, mad cow disease didn't, and HIV didn't.


But SARS cov 1 & 2 did... from the same sources... and if nothing is done about that, you can expect SARS cov "n"... it's about attacking all the issues I said.


----------



## KenOC

538 has just published summaries of six US Covid-19 forecasting models. In the article, each forecasts total fatalities over the next three weeks, both for the nation as a whole and for each state individually. Major assumptions are given and results are shown graphically including error bars.

This was obviously a lot of work by 538 but I think the results were worth it. I don't know, though, whether they plan to update the article as time passes.

The article is *here*.


----------



## bz3

Jacck said:


> he is not getting younger and will not be here forever and soon he will be like the Soviet gerontocrats. He has been suffocating Russia for 20 years now and might for another 10. Historically, he will be seen as the gravedigger of Russia. In 1989 they had the chance to transform into a liberal democracy, but Putin and his mafia chose to build USSR 2.0 instead. Fatal decision. Russia is in sharp decline and will likely disintegrate further in the future (splitting into more territories). Other states such as China are waiting for it to happen. The only problem will be what to do with all the nuclear arsenal.


They did go for 'liberal democracy' (read: crony capitalism) in the 90s and it reduced Russia's mortality rate to levels not seen outside of the 3rd world in peacetime. Hard to blame Putin for what he has done, particularly as the US empire has gotten more antagonistic around the world.


----------



## DaveM

bz3 said:


> They did go for 'liberal democracy' (read: crony capitalism) in the 90s and it reduced Russia's mortality rate to levels not seen outside of the 3rd world in peacetime. Hard to blame Putin for what he has done, particularly as the US empire has gotten more antagonistic around the world.


Perhaps reading up on what he has done will change your mind.


----------



## bz3

DaveM said:


> Perhaps reading up on what he has done will change your mind.


Afraid not. Increasingly he appears to be the only adult in the room when it comes to meting out international conflict. I'd allow that the Russian style of government is not my ideal, though calling it 'fascist' is clearly just histrionics, but Russia was dealt a bad hand after 70 years of communism.


----------



## DaveM

bz3 said:


> Afraid not. Increasingly he appears to be the only adult in the room when it comes to meting out international conflict. I'd allow that the Russian style of government is not my ideal, though calling it 'fascist' is clearly just histrionics, but Russia was dealt a bad hand after 70 years of communism.


Saying that you can't blame Putin for what he's done means either you don't know what he's done or you are excusing the behavior of a tyrant.


----------



## aleazk

bz3 said:


> Afraid not. Increasingly he appears to be the only adult in the room when it comes to meting out international conflict. I'd allow that the Russian style of government is not my ideal, though calling it 'fascist' is clearly just histrionics, but Russia was dealt a bad hand after 70 years of communism.


Violent persecution of minorities and political dissidents, eternization in power, a political propaganda system, etc., seems like the abc of fascism to me...


----------



## science

Last couple days have not been so bad for the US comparatively. Under 30k known new cases and under 2k known deaths both days, barely even 1k known deaths yesterday.

One of the key states to watch is Georgia, which has been reopening for a few days now. Yesterday they had 339 known new cases and 5 known deaths.


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> Last couple days have not been so bad for the US comparatively. Under 30k known new cases and under 2k known deaths both days, barely even 1k known deaths yesterday.
> 
> One of the key states to watch is Georgia, which has been reopening for a few days now. Yesterday they had 339 known new cases and 5 known deaths.


Good info. Unfortunately, I haven't found a site that reports time series for the individual states. If anybody know of a site like that, please post it!


----------



## Guest

Jacck said:


> he is not getting younger and will not be here forever and soon he will be like the Soviet gerontocrats. He has been suffocating Russia for 20 years now and might for another 10. Historically, he will be seen as the gravedigger of Russia. In 1989 they had the chance to transform into a liberal democracy, but Putin and his mafia chose to build USSR 2.0 instead. Fatal decision. Russia is in sharp decline and will likely disintegrate further in the future (splitting into more territories). Other states such as China are waiting for it to happen. The only problem will be what to do with all the nuclear arsenal.


The default of Russia has long been tyranny, going back to their medieval Tsars. A friend of mine (my physician) is an emigre from Poland who lived under the Soviet system; naturally he has nothing but contempt for Russians. But, just as was the case in Soviet-controlled Poland, there were always those self-serving supporters who kept the regime alive. This happens in Russia; Putin is smart enough to make sure his henchmen and supporters are kept in comfort and style, that the army is fed and financed and the rest of the people anaesthetized with Vodka. They think Putin has given them a higher standard of living and that might be correct but, unquestionably, Putin is a threat to Europe and the rest of the world in a way that he isn't with his own people.

Stop fretting about Covid-19 cases in Russia; we'll never know and it won't make any different to Putin anyway. Or his people.


----------



## pianozach

Yep.

*Today* the *U.S.* saw its *largest one-day death toll* (2,909 people) from the coronavirus pandemic to date on Thursday as several states began to reopen parts of their economies.


----------



## tortkis

KenOC said:


> Good info. Unfortunately, I haven't found a site that reports time series for the individual states. If anybody know of a site like that, please post it!


CSSE at Johns Hopkins University updates daily the time series of confirmed cases and deaths for counties of US states.
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

The time series tables are in csv format. You can sum up all the counties in a state, calculate daily increases, plot a time trend, etc. For example, plots below show deaths per 100K in California and Georgia. I am not sure if re-opening in Georgia is a good idea.


----------



## science

pianozach said:


> Yep.
> 
> *Today* the *U.S.* saw its *largest one-day death toll* (2,909 people) from the coronavirus pandemic to date on Thursday as several states began to reopen parts of their economies.


What site did you get that information from?


----------



## science

The NY Times has an interesting article on excess deaths. In the long run, excess deaths are the only reliable numbers we're going to have, so it's good that these numbers are starting to be known. 

(As an added bonus, there's an interesting comparison between Sweden, Denmark, and Norway.)


----------



## erki

Kieran said:


> the most obscene ways, when it came to how their neighbours let Italy down. Without litigating anything off topic regarding the EU, in so many ways I agree with the nationalist impulses of Germany and France, but at the same time I'm disgusted at the way the so-called "ideals" of the EU are always merely convenience to these nations...


It seems that this virus has not been scary/dangerous enough for the countries to start acting together. It is possible still to crawl into our own bunkers and hope the threat goes away. Indeed it did show the true face of some nations and communities all over. People tend to forget their ideals in the face of eminent threat.


----------



## KenOC

*Surf's up* in SoCal, and so is partisan politics!

"Dozens of people, many of them waving American flags or carrying Trump-Pence signs, resumed their protest in the center of town on Saturday afternoon. They stood shoulder-to-shoulder at the side of the road, almost none of them wearing masks. Cars driving by honked in support.

"After surfing that morning, Steve Hubbell, 58, stood barefoot among the other protesters. His girlfriend, Carol Story, held a surfboard with the message "Gavin Don't Surf" written on it.

"These are our beaches," she said, adding that they thought Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, targeted Orange County beaches for political reasons. Both Ms. Story and Mr. Hubbell said they voted Republican."


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> Yep.
> 
> *Today* the *U.S.* saw its *largest one-day death toll* (2,909 people) from the coronavirus pandemic to date on Thursday as several states began to reopen parts of their economies.





science said:


> What site did you get that information from?


I think it was "The Hill", but I may have gotten the date wrong. The article was published on Saturday, and referred to Thursday:

*US endures worst one-day death toll yet as states reopen: WHO
* BY MARTY JOHNSON - 05/02/20 07:32 PM EDT

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...worst-one-day-death-toll-yet-as-states-reopen

The U.S. saw its largest one-day death toll from the coronavirus pandemic to date on Thursday as several states began to reopen parts of their economies, according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO).

The WHO reported that 2,909 people in the U.S. died on Thursday, shattering the previous record of 2,471 deaths reported on April 23, CNBC reported.

The grim news comes as Americans grow weary of the stay-at-home measures that have shuttered businesses and put millions of people out of work. State leaders around the country continued to see protests from demonstrators who want to reopen the economy and return to their jobs. Demonstrations took place in California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Tennessee and Washington on Friday.


----------



## Art Rock

Surely "correlating" number of deaths with re-opening just a few days earlier is absurd. There is a considerable time between infection and the need for hospitalization, and death. 

I'm looking for numbers at the Worldometer site, and they show daily deaths for the past six days declining from 2470 to 1154. Daily new cases show no decline yet.


----------



## Art Rock

By the way, that decline is a regular feature and should not give rise to over-optimism (could be related to weekend figures being postponed to Mondays:


----------



## philoctetes

Art Rock said:


> By the way, that decline is a regular feature and should not give rise to over-optimism (could be related to weekend figures being postponed to Mondays:
> 
> View attachment 135241


Fourier analysis by eyeball inspection - good job!


----------



## Guest

Art Rock said:


> Surely "correlating" number of deaths with re-opening just a few days earlier is absurd. There is a considerable time between infection and the need for hospitalization, and death.


My reading of that is not that the re-opening was a cause of the higher death toll, but rather an indication that the reopening may be consider premature in view of the fact that deaths are still rising.


----------



## Flamme

pianozach said:


> I tend to view the back and forth between Trump and Russia as more of a Reality Show. Fake drama and posturing, manufactured conflicts, and showy distractions, while there's a hidden and far more corrupt game being played behind the scenes.
> 
> There is big money at stake here. Yeah, a Reality Show - staged situations, planted items. And the Payola of the 1950s and early 1960s.
> 
> So . . . Trump expels some Russian diplomats. BFD.
> 
> Meanwhile, we had a meeting in the White House with Russian diplomats, and no press allowed, a private summit between Trump and Putin . . . Giuliani's close ties with Lev Parnas, including being funded by him. That entire "perfect call" with Ukraine. Trump's financial ties to Deutsche bank, which has massive ties to Russian oligarchs.
> 
> C'mon . . . Trump has never "been tough" on Russia.


Yeah...I sometimes have doubts like that as well...It was funny when I talked 2 many folx in Poland who adore anything trump and merica do, and I was like hmm, maybe he is indeed an russian plant, they would lose their s***...In a ''perfect twist'' of irony he will ''sell'' them 2 Putin, like they did in WW2 with hitler and stalin...


----------



## starthrower

pianozach said:


> The grim news comes as Americans grow weary of the stay-at-home measures that have shuttered businesses and put millions of people out of work. State leaders around the country continued to see protests from demonstrators who want to reopen the economy and return to their jobs. Demonstrations took place in California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Tennessee and Washington on Friday.


Coincides with the American oligarchic catch 22 policy. Stay home and starve or go to work and put yourself and others in danger of sickness and death. Thousands of small businesses without the aid of accounting or legal advice are expected to successfully apply for government loans containing strict regulations while the big corporations with their advisors are eligible for no strings attached government loans.


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Yeah...I sometimes have doubts like that as well...It was funny when I talked 2 many folx in Poland who adore anything trump and merica do, and I was like hmm, maybe he is indeed an russian plant, they would lose their s***...In a ''perfect twist'' of irony he will ''sell'' them 2 Putin, like they did in WW2 with hitler and stalin...


Both Putin and Trump and sociopaths. Putin is intelligent, Trump is not. But the Americans have to option to get rid of Trump in the elections (at least for now), the Russians are stuck with Putin for life.


----------



## Flamme

In contacts with polish ppl I got an impression they live in a constant strain and fear of russia, but there is also jelousy,religious hatred, even racial chatred toward russians but in the same time some sort of strange awe although not openly 4 russian might, culture etc...I got a feeling it was all very exhausting. One of my ex ''friends'' commented yesterday on my comment on ''historic photographs'' on Facebook, how osam,a bin laden changed, from pro western dude into radical islam 1, that he was a ''GREAT FIGHTER AGAINST SOVIETS'' and ''that soviets radicalised him''...Thats a lot of bull if u ask me...No1 called him 2 go 2 a holy war and form jihadi units and l8r blow up Twin towers...I was pretty shocked by such remar, especially from pole who are known 2 be very pro catholic, even 2 extremes...


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> In contacts with polish ppl I got an impression they live in a constant strain and fear of russia, but there is also jelousy,religious hatred, even racial chatred toward russians but in the same time some sort of strange awe although not openly 4 russian might, culture etc...I got a feeling it was all very exhausting. One of my ex ''friends'' commented yesterday on my comment on ''historic photographs'' on Facebook, how osam,a bin laden changed, from pro western dude into radical islam 1, that he was a ''GREAT FIGHTER AGAINST SOVIETS'' and ''that soviets radicalised him''...Thats a lot of bull if u ask me...No1 called him 2 go 2 a holy war and form jihadi units and l8r blow up Twin towers...I was pretty shocked by such remar, especially from pole who are known 2 be very pro catholic, even 2 extremes...


the Polish are much more russophobic than the Czechs, but it has historical reasons. Russia started WW2 together with Hitler and both attacked Poland.See for Katyn massacre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre
but that is only one incident of many. The hostilities between Russia and Poland go much further in history
Personally, I am sorry for the Russians. They are their own worst enemies, always opressed by their own tyrants. I am however angry at them for their constant interference in our politics. Just like they meddled in the US elections, the meddle in our elections and they have helped elect our president (he would not have won without Russia). Though that is a double-edged sword. You meddle in the elections, but you anger half of the country. And in this case, the angered half of the country are the younger people (the old ones are pro Russian). Not good for Russia from a long term perspective.


----------



## Flamme

Yeah your president gives off a strange vibe, in disharmony with government...


----------



## pianozach

bz3 said:


> Afraid not. Increasingly he appears to be the only adult in the room when it comes to meting out international conflict. I'd allow that the Russian style of government is not my ideal, though calling it 'fascist' is clearly just histrionics, but Russia was dealt a bad hand after 70 years of communism.





DaveM said:


> Saying that you can't blame Putin for what he's done means either you don't know what he's done or you are excusing the behavior of a tyrant.


I think you're going to have to spell it out for him. Bullet points are your best bet.

Kind of like this:



aleazk said:


> Violent persecution of minorities and political dissidents, eternization in power, a political propaganda system, etc., seems like the abc of fascism to me...


1. Violent persecution of minorities and political dissidents, 
2. eternization in power, 
3. a political propaganda system,
4. . . .


----------



## philoctetes

The entire Old World world has a multi-millenial history of dictators and launching countless human atrocities, including the slavery in the New World... but America, only 5 centuries old, undoing much of the Old World's ways, gets the blame for all that now... anybody ever notice that?

Nobody wanted to live in the Old World anymore, for obvious reasons, so that jealousy between the Old World nations acquired a fresh target... and America has to deal with it every day...


----------



## pianozach

bz3 said:


> Afraid not. Increasingly he appears to be the only adult in the room when it comes to meting out international conflict. I'd allow that the Russian style of government is not my ideal, though calling it 'fascist' is clearly just histrionics, but Russia was dealt a bad hand after 70 years of communism.





science said:


> Last couple days have not been so bad for the US comparatively. Under 30k known new cases and under 2k known deaths both days, barely even 1k known deaths yesterday.
> 
> One of the key states to watch is Georgia, which has been reopening for a few days now. Yesterday they had 339 known new cases and 5 known deaths.


So, yesterday the "New Deaths" in the US were +1,154.

Sundays seem to be the lowest totals, probably because it's Sunday. Mondays seem to be, on average, higher.

So far today, at 8:20 AM PDT (11:20 AM EDT), we're at +117. Extrapolate that out, and you could have anywhere from 400 to 1,600, because of the time difference, and the times at which the stats are actually reported.

If today's stats are lower than Sunday, then we are definitely making progress, If they are in the same range as last Thursday, then we are definitely NOT making progress.

However . . . there's another factor, that of several states choosing to "open up" because white people are bored, panicky, and storming state capitals with assault rifles. There are already big parties, and I expect that trend will continue as Cinco de Mayo is tomorrow. All it takes is one or more people at each of these 'up yours' events, and the number of new cases will again be on the rise in a week or so. Give it 10-14 days before the deaths in those "opened up" areas start registering an uptick in deaths.

Those people so concerned with getting together in crowds are unwitting petri dishes of SARS-CoV-2, almost like some sort of cruel unscientific experiment.


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> The entire Old World world has a history of dictators and launching countless human atrocities, including the slavery in the New World... but America gets the blame for all that now... anybody ever notice that?


America was running the show since 1990's and certainly deserves blame for messing up the whole Middle East
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/opinion/iraq-war-anniversary-.html
I do not blame all Americans for this, just like I do not blame all Russians for the Stalinist occupation of my country
There is one thing about my country I am relatively proud of. We have almost no history of oppression, no Hitler or Stalin in our history, no colonies, no slavery. Yes, we have some problems with gypsies, but the blame is on both sides.


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> America was running the show since 1990's and certainly deserves blame for messing up the whole Middle East


Well jacck I completely agree but that is a completely different point than the one I made is it not... as I was examining a far longer time frame than a couple of decades by a several orders of magnitude... I would also note that your time frame encloses the likes of Putin, both Bushes, the Clintons, and Obama all together as political forces, during all those wars, proxy wars, leading up to Trump... who is not one of "them" the NWO, and, like New v Old World, is more scapegoat than cause... those who support him want don't want to continue the 1990's way... Russia and Putin are just decoys, more scapegoats... on the economic front, they are not real threats... they are pawns on the global stage...


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> , leading up to *Trump..*. who is not one of "them" the NWO, and, like New v Old World,* is more scapegoat than cause*... those who support him want don't want to continue the 1990's way... * Russia and Putin are just decoys, more scapegoats*... on the economic front, they are not real threats... _*they are pawns on the global stage.*_..


Incredible, absolutely incredible. Poor scapegoat Trump. Poor Putin, decoy and scapegoat. Pawns on the global stage. You can't write this stuff...well, I guess you can.


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> The entire Old World world has a multi-millenial history of dictators and launching countless human atrocities, including the slavery in the New World... but America, only 5 centuries old, undoing much of the Old World's ways, gets the blame for all that now... anybody ever notice that?
> 
> ..


no, never.

In fact, I don't even know what you refer to.


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> Putin is* intelligent, Trump is not.*


We need to stop singing this old, misleading song.


----------



## Jacck

eljr said:


> We need to stop singing this old, misleading song.


it is difficult characterizing someone's intelligence, because there are so many different types of intelligence. Trump is certainly not educated, he knows very little of the world. On the other hand he certainly has some kind of genius in other aspects, otherwise he could not have become president. So I view him as an idiot savant. But he is totally unfit to be a president. He should have stayed a reality TV star.


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> . . . *So far today, at 8:20 AM PDT (11:20 AM EDT), we're at +117*. Extrapolate that out, and you could have anywhere from 400 to 1,600, because of the time difference, and the times at which the stats are actually reported.. . . .


Today, at 10:50 AM PDT, a scant 2-1/2 hours later, our "*New Deaths" are at +518*

That's +160 deaths/hour.

13 hours to go for the day . . . at that rate we _could_ see another 2,085 for a grand total of 2,600 for the day.


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> Today, at 10:50 AM PDT, a scant 2-1/2 hours later, our "*New Deaths" are at +518*
> 
> That's +150 deaths/hour.
> 
> 13 hours to go for the day . . . at that rate we _could_ see another 1,950 for a grand total of 2,468 for the day.


you certainly cannot count death rate by the hour. The death counting or possibly reporting has something to do with the times the doctors work, so many countries have less deaths on weekends and then death spikes on mondays, when the deaths are counted. If you look at some of the graphs on worldometer, you can see this pattern clearly


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> you certainly cannot count death rate by the hour. The death counting or possibly reporting has something to do with the times the doctors work, so many countries have less deaths on weekends and then death spikes on mondays, when the deaths are counted. If you look at some of the graphs on worldometer, you can see this pattern clearly


Quite right. I pointed that out in the previous post, that reporting times for gathering statistic are not going to be linear, but rather, pointedly sporadic. I also pointed out that Sundays/Mondays counts will be skewed.

No, we won't have a count for today until tomorrow morning, and Sunday's and Monday's counts are probably not quite right because of how these things are being reported.

Yes, a daily graph gives a better sense of the numbers, as one can grasp the average of the valleys and spikes, and make a pretty good determination of the uphill/downhill.


----------



## Marc

I'm watching the yearly Commemoration of the Dead (of World War 2) in my country, on my laptop. An almost completely empty square in our capital, with impressive speeches on video screen, and with young children who lay down wreaths in rememberance of the dead. It's very impressive this year, also now that we kind of have to fight an invisible natural enemy to defend our freedom.
I hope that all countries and citizens will unite in that fight, instead of making a political issue of it, with all kinds of accusations and threats. Imho, it's only with good cooperation that serious enemies like this can be overcome.


----------



## Flamme

It is cool 4 ppl who can work from their homes but many cant and whats with them...I feel that in ''new reeality'' ppl will be forced 2 stay at homes 24/7...


----------



## senza sordino

What social distancing in the Yukon looks like:










From the Guardian Newspaper


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

The chaos is by design .


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> Personally, I am sorry for the Russians. They are their own worst enemies, always opressed by their own tyrants. I am however angry at them for their constant interference in our politics. Just like they meddled in the US elections, the meddle in our elections and they have helped elect our president (he would not have won without Russia). Though that is a double-edged sword. You meddle in the elections, but you anger half of the country. And in this case, the angered half of the country are the younger people (the old ones are pro Russian). Not good for Russia from a long term perspective.


Why are older Czechs pro-Russian when Russia invaded your country in the 60's? Young people never saw this but some of the older ones must remember.


----------



## Flamme

2day I had a fierce argument wit some1 in a store...He didnt have a mask, was like less than half metres away and didnt want 2 move when I asked him...Ppl r total a##h&/) during this pandemic.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> Why are older Czechs pro-Russian when Russia invaded your country in the 60's? Young people never saw this but some of the older ones must remember.


during the communist regime, there were many people who profited, were in the party, or had relatively more power, and they were not happy with the transformation. Some part are simply old communists. But I think it is deeper than that and has something to do with the way the human mind operates in old age. We tend to forget all the negative experiences and remember mostly the positive ones, so a lot of older people who were young during communism now view the time with rosy glasses. Also, the Russian and communist propaganda was incredibly effective (google some communist propaganda arts from the 1950's, it is really brilliant) and works also subconsciously. So thoughts that were planted in your brain in youth (even if you have resented them), might later resurface and you find them familiar. That is why to current Russian propaganda is so effective with the old people. I can see it with my own parents. They were no communists, both of their families were somewhat prosecuted (one uncle died in communist prison harvesting uranium for Soviet nuclear weapons), they lived through 1968 and the normalization period. And now in older age they see the time with nostalgia.


----------



## Room2201974

Open Book said:


> Why are older Czechs pro-Russian when Russia invaded your country in the 60's? Young people never saw this but some of the older ones must remember.


I spent an afternoon in Prague once with a Czech who had a Ph.D. in History and after much discussion I too find it very hard to believe that older Czechs would ever embrace the Russians. In fact, the opposite must be true if we follow the fortunes of the Czech hockey team lately.


----------



## Flamme

Maybe because state back in those days took care of everything and they felt more safe and cared about. That is how I remember the former SOCIALIST yugoslavia, in which I lived since my birth in 1980 till 1990 when it fell apart.


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> Maybe because state back in those days took care of everything and they felt more safe and cared about. That is how I remember the former SOCIALIST yugoslavia, in which I lived since my birth in 1980 till 1990 when it fell apart.


you would be surprised at the brutal shock that you would experience, if you were now suddenly to return to that time. Nostalgia and rosy glasses.


----------



## KenOC

Feeling lucky here. Even though people are walking around in masks and disposable gloves, edging away from each other whenever they pass closely, you’d be unlikely to know there’s a pandemic at all if you didn’t follow the mass media.

Here are today’s numbers for the US followed by my state, county, and city. These aren’t counts but measures of the infection rate. Diagnosed Covid-19 cases per million, including dead and recovered.

USA – 3,646
My state – 1,405
My county – 870
My city – 360


----------



## Flamme

I remember those days bro...And SFRJ wasnt under iron fist of moscow, it had its OWN way, it was even more civilised than countries which were ''born'' after its ''death''...I know many ppl from soviet bloc and warshaw pact envied us 4 things we had.


----------



## Jacck

Flamme said:


> I remember those days bro...And SFRJ wasnt under iron fist of moscow, it had its OWN way, it was even more civilised than countries which were ''born'' after its ''death''...I know many ppl from soviet bloc and warshaw pact envied us 4 things we had.


I am aproximately as old as you, so we were both relatively young during the transformation. Personally, I would hate living in a state with borders from barbed wire patroled by communist police. In a state with one official state ideology (the marxism leninism), where you are not allowed to think differently. In a state, where mediocre stupid people from the working class are awarded positions of power and intelligentsia is trampled upon. A state with secret police, with snitches. You don't know whom you can trust, because you do not know who will rat about you to the police. A state where certain kids are prohibited from going to schools, because their class background is wrong etc. Is this what these people are nostalgic about?


----------



## Open Book

Jacck said:


> during the communist regime, there were many people who profited, were in the party, or had relatively more power, and they were not happy with the transformation. Some part are simply old communists. But I think it is deeper than that and has something to do with the way the human mind operates in old age. We tend to forget all the negative experiences and remember mostly the positive ones, so a lot of older people who were young during communism now view the time with rosy glasses. Also, the Russian and communist propaganda was incredibly effective (google some communist propaganda arts from the 1950's, it is really brilliant) and works also subconsciously. So thoughts that were planted in your brain in youth (even if you have resented them), might later resurface and you find them familiar. That is why to current Russian propaganda is so effective with the old people. I can see it with my own parents. They were no communists, both of their families were somewhat prosecuted (one uncle died in communist prison harvesting uranium for Soviet nuclear weapons), they lived through 1968 and the normalization period. And now in older age they see the time with nostalgia.


Does it also have anything to do with the fact that you were not Czech Republic then but Czechoslovakia? Were attitudes of the Slovaks any different from those of the Czechs toward the Russians?

When I expressed misgiving over 16-year-olds voting I remember you said you feared old people's attitudes more. I see what you mean. There's a kind of hardening of the arteries or something in some old people that produces rigid thinking. On the other hand if they can escape this affliction, older people should have acquired wisdom that comes from experience.


----------



## KenOC

Some of the states in Worldometer now have linked pages with Covid-19 data by county (cases, deaths, etc.) as well as the usual graphs for the state as a whole. None of this has been available before. All bar graphs on the site are now overlaid with three-day moving averages. These changes and additions are welcome.

I suspect that most or all of the states will soon have these linked pages.


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> Does it also have anything to do with the fact that you were not Czech Republic then but Czechoslovakia? Were attitudes of the Slovaks any different from those of the Czechs toward the Russians?
> 
> When I expressed misgiving over 16-year-olds voting I remember you said you feared old people's attitudes more. I see what you mean. There's a kind of hardening of the arteries or something in some old people that produces rigid thinking. On the other hand if they can escape this affliction, older people should have acquired wisdom that comes from experience.


Personally, I don't think the Czechs have that much in common with the Slovaks, except a similar language. We have very different histories. The Czech lands were part of the Holy Roman Empire, while the Slovaks were part of the Kingdom of Hungary. We were artifically joined into one state in 1918 after the desintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Slovaks split from us during WW2 and became a nazi state, and rejoined after WW2. And after 1989, we just let them go their own way. So we actually coexisted in one state just 50 years or so. I think the situation is similar in most post-communist countries. The worst situation is in Hungary and Poland, where Victor is practicing his "illiberal democracy". I honestly do not know what types of Hungarians vote for him, but my guess would be older voters.


----------



## pianozach

Flamme said:


> 2day I had a fierce argument wit some1 in a store...He didnt have a mask, was like less than half metres away and didnt want 2 move when I asked him...Ppl r total a##h&/) during this pandemic.


On Friday, in Flint, Michigan, a security guard at a "Family Dollar" store was shot in the head and killed after he told a woman that her daughter would have to wear a face mask in the store, which in Michigan, is currently mandatory. After she yelled and spit on the Security Guard, he asked them to leave the store and instructed a cashier not to serve her.

She left in her SUV, which returned 20 minutes later with her husband and son. Both got out of the car, one argued with the guard, claiming the guard had disrespected his wife, then the other one shot him in the back of the head.

She's been arrested, but the two men are still at large and are considered armed and dangerous. All three have been charged with first degree murder.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...-police-investigating-if-it-was-over-n1199241


----------



## science

pianozach said:


> On Friday, in Flint, Michigan, a security guard at a "Family Dollar" store was shot in the head and killed after he told a woman that her daughter would have to wear a face mask in the store, which in Michigan, is currently mandatory. After she yelled and spit on the Security Guard, he asked them to leave the store and instructed a cashier not to serve her.
> 
> She left in her SUV, which returned 20 minutes later with her husband and son. Both got out of the car, one argued with the guard, claiming the guard had disrespected his wife, then the other one shot him in the back of the head.
> 
> She's been arrested, but the two men are still at large and are considered armed and dangerous. All three have been charged with first degree murder.
> 
> https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...-police-investigating-if-it-was-over-n1199241


Wow. Thank you for posting that.


----------



## tortkis

tortkis said:


> CSSE at Johns Hopkins University updates daily the time series of confirmed cases and deaths for counties of US states.
> https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19


Also, this site shows the time series of new coronavirus cases for each state.
See Which States Are Reopening and Which Are Still Shut Down
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html


----------



## bz3

pianozach said:


> I think you're going to have to spell it out for him. Bullet points are your best bet.
> 
> Kind of like this:
> 
> 1. Violent persecution of minorities and political dissidents,
> 2. eternization in power,
> 3. a political propaganda system,
> 4. . . .


I get the sense from your frequently hostile and petulant jibes that you're some kind of creature who regards reading the Washington Post as an intellectual exercise. In other words we are strangers, and have nothing whatever to say to one another.


----------



## KenOC

Merely an odd coincidence? *Three Russian doctors fall from hospital windows, raising questions amid coronavirus pandemic*.

All three had been treated for the coronavirus. Two are now dead from their falls, one lives…


----------



## science

25k new known cases in the US yesterday and 1300 new known deaths. 

To be honest, that might be sustainable, but we can't let those numbers go up. It'll be very interesting, and really important, to see what happens as the effects of reopening get into the numbers.


----------



## pianozach

bz3 said:


> I get the sense from your frequently hostile and petulant jibes that you're some kind of creature who regards reading the Washington Post as an intellectual exercise. In other words we are strangers, and have nothing whatever to say to one another.


You are *triggered*.

I don't actually read the WaPo. Firewall. Are they liberal or conservative?


----------



## senza sordino




----------



## bz3

pianozach said:


> You are *triggered*.
> 
> I don't actually read the WaPo. Firewall. Are they liberal or conservative?


They are a clearinghouse for homicidal maniacs to dissemble and to ritually worship their totems such as diversity, pluralism, sexual fetishism, and what I understand to be a doomsday version of scientific inquiry masquerading as a body of received knowledge.

You would fit in, though I should have suspected you to be both too miserly and dim to work around a paywall.


----------



## erki

I think it is a trend not only here that we are "obsessed" with corona statistics as if this would give us THE knowledge. While in reality it just inhibits to see the big picture. Why I say this is because it gives us some kind of certainty at this moment in time and that comforts us but will be meaningless in the next moment. So we are exited to follow the curve just like we are exited to follow some sports. As long we are not in the hospital ourselves the graphs are just nice to look at.
So instead we should be thinking hard what should we do(also in personal level) if this virus will stay with us as flu does. Or if new virus will emerge. What is our strategy for the future - in autumn, winter, next year? How many times we are willing to accept the lockdowns if opening-closing game will start and how are we going to enforce our acceptance(with guns or demonstrations)? What will happen when nations recover in different speeds and the ones with less setbacks take over the markets?
Would be nice to decide what we like more - endless horror or horrible end.


----------



## mrdoc

We are being led to accept that things are going to be different from now on ??? why?? is there something we are not being told? it is a virus that will eventually be defeated. There is something that is just not adding up here.


----------



## Jacck

it looks like sun might play a role after all
U.S. government reveals details of coronavirus sunlight study
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...d/us-coronavirus-sunlight-study/#.XrE-t_lfguU
UV radiation from the sun increases 'by a factor of 10' by summer and could be key in slowing COVID-19
https://www.accuweather.com/en/heal...r-and-could-be-key-in-slowing-covid-19/703393


----------



## Kieran

erki said:


> I think it is a trend not only here that we are "obsessed" with corona statistics as if this would give us THE knowledge. While in reality it just inhibits to see the big picture. Why I say this is because it gives us some kind of certainty at this moment in time and that comforts us but will be meaningless in the next moment. So we are exited to follow the curve just like we are exited to follow some sports. As long we are not in the hospital ourselves the graphs are just nice to look at.
> So instead we should be thinking hard what should we do(also in personal level) if this virus will stay with us as flu does. Or if new virus will emerge. What is our strategy for the future - in autumn, winter, next year? How many times we are willing to accept the lockdowns if opening-closing game will start and how are we going to enforce our acceptance(with guns or demonstrations)? What will happen when nations recover in different speeds and the ones with less setbacks take over the markets?
> Would be nice to decide what we like more - endless horror or horrible end.


Very interesting, and true. Just like most political allegiances are most likely a family heirloom, or an expression of a psychological type, I see stats being used positively or negatively, depending on the mindset of the user. So some people are constructive, and others are using stats as proof that humans are vile and we're getting what we deserve.

But also, it's natural we search and google for hope with regards the virus. Articles that might explain, and lead us out of it. Jacck has posted a couple of interesting ones above, which suggest what we all hope, that this virus will behave as viruses tend to, in a seasonal way, giving us room to hoard, make preparations, and live.

"Endless horror - or a horrible end." It may come to that, and both are equally _enticing_, but it may also be that this time next year, we'll look back in a daze, back to normal, and still have made no preparations for the next arrival of the invisible giant...


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> humans are vile


you don't think a case can be made?


----------



## eljr

Jacck said:


> it looks like sun might play a role after all
> U.S. government reveals details of coronavirus sunlight study
> https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...d/us-coronavirus-sunlight-study/#.XrE-t_lfguU
> UV radiation from the sun increases 'by a factor of 10' by summer and could be key in slowing COVID-19
> https://www.accuweather.com/en/heal...r-and-could-be-key-in-slowing-covid-19/703393


UV does not help shaded areas... like the bottom side of kids activity structures in parks.

then, of course, the fall comes


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> you don't think a case can be made?


No.

Humans do vile things, but humans also do the most extraordinary things too. I think of humans as being exceptional, brilliant and inspirational. I condemn vile acts but generally human nature is very creative and heroic and generous, within its limits...


----------



## erki

Kieran said:


> "Endless horror - or a horrible end." It may come to that, and both are equally _enticing_, but it may also be that this time next year, we'll look back in a daze, back to normal, and still have made no preparations for the next arrival of the invisible giant...


What nags me the most right now - as we are opening up and the same time have been told to be prepared for some lockdown again if numbers start to grow - is that how many times I would accept this from my government. One more or twice maybe but not third time for sure.
Also there is a strong sentiment to wear masks in public gatherings. Like in Japan they do it for years already.
Human being is equipped with the body that is capable of living in Earth already. And is this mindset to move towards wearing a scafander in addition to our skin may not be too smart after all.


----------



## Kieran

erki said:


> What nags me the most right now - as we are opening up and the same time have been told to be prepared for some lockdown again if numbers start to grow - is that how many times I would accept this from my government. One more or twice maybe but not third time for sure.
> Also there is a strong sentiment to wear masks in public gatherings. Like in Japan they do it for years already.
> Human being is equipped with the body that is capable of living in Earth already. And is this mindset to move towards wearing a scafander in addition to our skin may not be too smart after all.


It's like the idea that maybe the virus is seasonal, so in hot countries, let people out, let them absorb vitamin D, let them breathe air and build immunity - keeping us locked up is reducing our immunity and causing all sorts of other health issues. I know people who've taken to drink in a huge way, because what else is there to do, stuck in an apartment, but binge on snacks, beer and Netflix?

I hope your country - and all others - will benefit from the release, but also be prepared to lock down again, but only for the sake of the hospitals. Good anecdotal news from a nurse in a big hospital in Dublin - there are now only 2 Covid wards there, not 3, and the ICU has only 5 patients. Things are improving...


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> No.
> 
> Humans do vile things, but humans also do the most extraordinary things too. I think of humans as being exceptional, brilliant and inspirational. I condemn vile acts but generally human nature is very creative and heroic and generous, within its limits...


respectfully, i disagree


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> It's like the idea that maybe the virus is seasonal, so in hot countries, let people out, let them absorb vitamin D, let them breathe air and build immunity - keeping us locked up is reducing our immunity and causing all sorts of other health issues. I know people who've taken to drink in a huge way, because what else is there to do, stuck in an apartment, but binge on snacks, beer and Netflix?
> 
> I hope your country - and all others - will benefit from the release, but also be prepared to lock down again, but only for the sake of the hospitals. Good anecdotal news from a nurse in a big hospital in Dublin - there are now only 2 Covid wards there, not 3, and the ICU has only 5 patients. Things are improving...


how does one build immunity on vacation but not at home?

(rhetorical)


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> how does one build immunity on vacation but not at home?
> 
> (rhetorical)


Well, people have to build immunity everywhere. I remember the last time I got a lousy bedridden dose of flu, it was a couple of decades ago, and it was because I was physically rundown, skinny as a rake, ate terrible foods, drank like a fish, had a terrible lifestyle. One thing that may come from the virus is that we look at our diets, drinking habits, smoking etc, and think of how strong or compromised our immunity might be.

Maybe even this won't stop us from getting Covid, but it helps us. And I'm no fitness or diet guru - I love booze, takeaways, lounging around watching films. But we always can improve things for ourselves, every little helps...


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> respectfully, i disagree


There's a difference between saying that "humans are vile", and saying, "humans are capable of doing vile things." I think most people would say the latter, and not the former...


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> There's a difference between saying that "humans are vile", and saying, "humans are capable of doing vile things." I think most people would say the latter, and not the former...


i say, in macro, the species is not so wonderful as we would like to think

pick up any history book


----------



## Flamme

I often insert SOME b4 '''humans'' just 2 be on the safe side...I cannot throw the 1st stone because I am not perfect either.


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> i say, in macro, the species is not so wonderful as we would like to think
> 
> pick up any history book


In this sense, we're just showing ourselves to be still a creature, still an animal, and acting as animals commonly do. This is also our nature, we can't "unbecome" an animal, and as the maestro Mister Dylan sings, "great as you are, man, you'll never be greater than yourself."

But against this, the greatness of humans transcends its awfulness. We cause problems, but we also create solutions. We can fly to the moon, play Beethoven sonatas - and create the vehicles for both endeavors, with our creativity almost constant: in medicine, arts, philosophy, we're always restlessly learning.

Look at history and see what we've done. Even though we have monsters and cruel ideologies among us, we fight these too, and heroically. The human story and history is littered with folly - and great ingenuity, generosity and a ceaseless creativity. I think it's narcissistic and misanthropic to consider humans only from the negative things we do...


----------



## eljr

Kieran said:


> we can't "unbecome" an animal.


exactly

it is what it is


----------



## Room2201974

My state is purposefully suppressing the death count numbers. We are being lied to on an hourly basis. The ICU nurse across the street told us this morning that the numbers in her ICU are going up...from 70 a few days ago to 110 now. Grim, and it's going to get grimer. 

What is currently happening in the US is like a scientific study, the difference being that in real life you can die if you wish to be in the experimental group.


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> exactly
> 
> it is what it is


Never are things so simple as that, fortunately...


----------



## Jacck

Room2201974 said:


> My state is purposefully suppressing the death count numbers. We are being lied to on an hourly basis. The ICU nurse across the street told us this morning that the numbers in her ICU are going up...from 70 a few days ago to 110 now. Grim, and it's going to get grimer.
> 
> What is currently happening in the US is like a scientific study, the difference being that in real life you can die if you wish to be in the experimental group.


Ron DeSatanis, the wrestling governor? I read that he tried to hide the death counts in the nursing homes


----------



## Jacck

eljr said:


> UV does not help shaded areas... like the bottom side of kids activity structures in parks.
> 
> then, of course, the fall comes


The virus will likely become supressed during the summer and then hit with full force in the autumn. The second wave might be worse than the first one.


----------



## Flamme

In my country and Balkan in general ppl already make fun of ''american virus'' and claim it is all overblown 4 ''american elections'' purposes...


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> The virus will likely become supressed during the summer and then hit with full force in the autumn. The second wave might be worse than the first one.


It may not, though. The virus has a surprised and inexperienced opponent now, but surely we'll be better prepared in the autumn? We're already internalizing physical distancing, and we know so much about how to manoeuvre socially, and it's up to people to behave responsibly, while governments act decisively and be ready. We may have medicines by then, too. We'll see what happens, hopefully we'll cope. It'll be a long brutal winter otherwise...


----------



## science

Next thread: How serious is the new _*murder hornet*_?


----------



## Kieran

science said:


> Next thread: How serious is the new _*murder hornet*_?


Bring it. A superhero will rise to face them... :wave:


----------



## science

I don't know if there will be a second wave of the virus but the fear (if there is a second wave) is that it would overlap with the regular flu and together they would be much deadlier than either could be alone. 

(That's what I've heard anyway. I haven't looked for good sources of info on this yet because it seems like a distant problem or, for now, a merely academic question.) 

For now the first wave seems to be still going strong around the world. Russia is finding 10k new cases a day. Brazil is finding almost as many. Things seem OK in the USA if we find 25k cases and 1500 deaths a day. And judging from excess death numbers, we're not finding as many as half of the actual deaths. 

So I don't know about a second wave.


----------



## science

Kieran said:


> Bring it. A superhero will rise to face them... :wave:


So nice of you to volunteer!

We've got brightly colored tights and a matching cape for you.

If the hornets capture you, we will deny all knowledge of your mission.


----------



## Kieran

science said:


> So nice of you to volunteer!
> 
> We've got brightly colored tights and a matching cape for you.
> 
> If the hornets capture you, we will deny all knowledge of your mission.


Sounds like a bargain. What colour tights attracts the Murder Hornet? We don't want to lose any time.....


----------



## Flamme

We really neeeded THAT...As if world wasnt paranoid enough...I feel unease when some1 sneeze.


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> Next thread: How serious is the new _*murder hornet*_?


it looks like we are entering a really interesting decade. Coronavirus, murder hornets, we have some bad droughts in my country, economic depression. At the end of the decade, the impoverished population will no doubt elect some strong Führer to solve the crises


----------



## Room2201974

Flamme said:


> In my country and Balkan in general ppl already make fun of ''american virus'' and claim it is all overblown 4 ''american elections'' purposes...


Did the people there also make fun of the Italian death counts?

I've seen the look on the face of the ICU nurse that lives across the street when she comes off shift.....a regular laugh riot.


----------



## Flamme

Nope. No ALL ppl...But the general feeling is that it is ''western thing'' and its ''overblown''...I see many chinese on streeets, even chinese workers who work on infrastructure here b4 covid are still here!!!


----------



## Room2201974

Jacck said:


> Ron DeSatanis, the wrestling governor? I read that he tried to hide the death counts in the nursing homes


What is essential about wrestling in Florida is for the WWE not to default on a 200 million dollar contract with Fox Sports. Whatever you do, do not turn off the spigot of re-election funding. As essential as a whole ICU full of doctors.


----------



## KenOC

Kieran said:


> There's a difference between saying that "humans are vile", and saying, "humans are capable of doing vile things." I think most people would say the latter, and not the former...


"There is nothing good or bad, only thinking makes it so." --Hamlet


----------



## Flamme

Yeah exactly...U can c some1s behaviour as arrogant, selfish and vile but 4 them it may b perfectly fine, in their echo chamber...


----------



## KenOC

"A revised mortality model predicts coronavirus deaths in the U.S. will nearly double to 135,000 through August as states continue to ease social distancing restrictions.

"The grim new projection, released by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) Monday, which has helped influence the U.S. response to the coronavirus outbreak, has jumped up considerably from its April 29 forecast of 72,433 deaths."

The new IMHE projections can be seen *here*.


----------



## Art Rock

KenOC said:


> "A revised mortality model predicts coronavirus deaths in the U.S. will nearly double to 135,000 through August as states continue to ease social distancing restrictions.
> 
> "The grim new projection, released by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) Monday, which has helped influence the U.S. response to the coronavirus outbreak, has jumped up considerably from its April 29 forecast of 72,433 deaths."
> 
> The new IMHE projections can be seen *here*.


That's the average prediction. The 95% reliability interval is 100000-240000. It could be a bit better. It can be a LOT worse.


----------



## Flamme

It is hard 2 tell y the us is so severly battered by the virus...Its definitely not only because of ''response'' because if it was places like Pakistan or africa would have millions of dead already...Its indeed a mystery...


----------



## TxllxT

Imperial College (London) has issued a grim warning for Italy being hit by the second wave of Covid-19 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-easing-lockdown-new-wave-deaths-imperial-college-2020-5
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8287623/Italy-face-deadlier-second-coronavirus-wave-grim-Imperial-College-London-study-finds.html
When mobility is increasing to 40% (not taking in account social distancing etc.) 18.000 Covid-19 death are projected.


----------



## mountmccabe

Art Rock said:


> That's the average prediction. The 95% reliability interval is 100000-240000. It could be a bit better. It can be a LOT worse.


And the IHME model does not take into account easing of social distancing restrictions. Also nowhere in the USA ever reached the level of restrictions seen in Wuhan, which was the basis for the curve fit. So we should expect things to be worse than the IHME model.

It's good that the relatively relaxed social distancing measures as practiced in the United States have proved effective at flattening the curve. But we'll never see a drop off like they did in Wuhan.


----------



## KenOC

Flamme said:


> It is hard 2 tell y the us is so severly battered by the virus...Its definitely not only because of ''response'' because if it was places like Pakistan or africa would have millions of dead already...Its indeed a mystery...


In terms of per capita Covid-19 deaths, the US trails a fair list of European countries as well as the UK and Ireland.


----------



## Flamme

I expected it 2 rocket like wildfire in ''third world'' countries but it was a total dud...


----------



## Art Rock

Deleted - looked at the wrong column....


----------



## KenOC

mountmccabe said:


> And the IHME model does not take into account easing of social distancing restrictions. Also nowhere in the USA ever reached the level of restrictions seen in Wuhan, which was the basis for the curve fit. So we should expect things to be worse than the IHME model.


The IMHE model for the US is a composite of the forecasts for the individual states, each of which has its own page. The state models assume some level of relaxed social distancing, as shown graphically on each state's page.


----------



## Art Rock

Flamme said:


> I expected it 2 rocket like wildfire in ''third world'' countries but it was a total dud...


Well, for starters, they have less old people there.


----------



## Art Rock

KenOC said:


> In terms of per capita Covid-19 deaths, the US trails a fair list of European countries as well as the UK and Ireland.


True. To try to eliminate the differences in the timing, I have taken the currently model predicted total number of deaths from the site you use and calculated deaths per million once it's over:

Belgium 821
UK 610
Spain 589
Italy 522
France 430
USA 408
Netherlands 376

Keeping in mind that the predictions for the other countries (possibly except UK) have a smaller error margin than the USA because they are closer to the final predicted result.


----------



## KenOC

Art Rock said:


> True. To try to eliminate the differences in the timing, I have taken the currently model predicted total number of deaths from the site you use and calculated deaths per million once it's over:
> 
> Belgium 821
> UK 610
> Spain 589
> Italy 522
> France 430
> USA 408
> Netherlands 376
> 
> Keeping in mind that the predictions for the other countries (possibly except UK) have a smaller error margin than the USA because they are closer to the final predicted result.


Interesting results! I tried to do your calcs on Russia, only to find that the IMHE model doesn't include it.


----------



## Flamme

Russia has loads of Infected, but few Dead, officially.


----------



## Guest

I'm tending to agree with my eldest son who says Coronavirus is of the same type which gives us the common cold; a virus - or range of viruses - for which *nobody has ever found a cure*!!


----------



## Flamme




----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> I'm tending to agree with my eldest son who says Coronavirus is of the same type which gives us the common cold; a virus - or range of viruses - for which *nobody has ever found a cure*!!


Because nobody has tried to find a cure for the coronavirus that causes 5-20% of colds while they have tried to find a cure for the rhinovirus that causes the great majority of colds. Besides, that coronavirus is not the same as the covid-19 related coronavirus other than being in the same broad family.


----------



## DaveM

Just got back from my every-two-week trek to the grocery store. Two different people had their masks lowered to their neck so they could talk loudly on their cell phones. I gave them the dirtiest look I could and mouthed an f-bomb, but they could not appreciate any of it because I had my mask on.


----------



## Flamme

Our president announced that 2morrow the state of emergency will be lifted.


----------



## mountmccabe

KenOC said:


> The IMHE model for the US is a composite of the forecasts for the individual states, each of which has its own page. The state models assume some level of relaxed social distancing, as shown graphically on each state's page.


The individual states pages show when various social distancing measures went into place. But what I said was almost a direct quote from their FAQ page

*How do social distancing measures factor into your model?*

...Note that our model does not yet reflect how easing or lifting social distancing measures could increase COVID-19 infections and deaths. We are working to project COVID-19 trends in areas that have eased social distancing measures, and we will release these projections as soon as possible.

*My location is starting to ease social distancing measures. How are you addressing this?*

For locations that have eased or lifted social distancing measures, we are only showing projections for roughly a week in the future in our visualization tool. Currently, our model does not yet reflect how easing or lifting these measures could increase COVID-19 infections and deaths. We are working to project COVID-19 trends in areas that have eased social distancing measures, and we will release these projections as soon as possible.


----------



## Flamme

Covid 19? We have an app 4 that! https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.health.covid19&hl=en_US


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Christabel said:


> I'm tending to agree with my eldest son who says Coronavirus is of the same type which gives us the common cold; a virus - or range of viruses - for which *nobody has ever found a cure*!!


Scientists typically don't spend much time on finding cures for diseases that cause only mild symptoms, are quickly resolved, and have incredibly low mortality rates - the average person can still function very well with a cold. We don't have cures for the strains of coronavirus that only cause the common cold because nobody is trying to find a cure for those strains.


----------



## KenOC

A new study indicates at least one *mutated strain* of the coronavirus, which may account for different experiences in different places. Possibly a big problem in preparing a vaccine…
--------------------------------------------------------------
In the United States, doctors had begun to independently question whether new strains of the virus could account for the differences in how it has infected, sickened and killed people, said Alan Wu, a UC San Francisco professor who runs the clinical chemistry and toxicology laboratories at San Francisco General Hospital.

Medical experts have speculated in recent weeks that they were seeing at least two strains of the virus in the U.S., one prevalent on the East Coast and another on the West Coast, according to Wu.

"We are looking to identify the mutation," he said, noting that his hospital has had only a few deaths out of the hundreds of cases it has treated, which is "quite a different story than we are hearing from New York."


----------



## pianozach

*The coronavirus has mutated and appears to be more contagious now, new study finds
*

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the...o-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds.html


----------



## science

There's been a little discussion comparing numbers such as death rates in different countries, so apparently we need to be reminded to take these numbers tentatively.

Perhaps countries with very strong medical infrastructure and universal healthcare have been able to compile accurate numbers in their own terms, but among them the terms differ. There is no universally agreed standard of what counts as a coronavirus death. In the US, we know that we're significantly undercounting the deaths. (That article covers a lot of factors; it's surprisingly dense for a newspaper article.)

So bear in mind that we have very incomplete evidence at the moment. We'll never have anything better than good estimates of how many people died from this, and we won't have those estimates for at least a year from now (even in the transparent countries that really want such estimates).


----------



## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Scientists typically don't spend much time on finding cures for diseases that cause only mild symptoms, are quickly resolved, and have incredibly low mortality rates - the average person can still function very well with a cold. We don't have cures for the strains of coronavirus that only cause the common cold because nobody is trying to find a cure for those strains.


But Covid-19 is one of these types of virus (Coronavirus) which has fatal symptoms; my point is that the inability to cure the cold over many many decades will not find any further success with this pandemic. And the common cold can lead to pneumonia and other unpleasant side-effects - enough to justify a vaccine, *particularly with children* where croup and asthma are problematic consequences. It is certainly not for the want of trying to find a vaccine for the common cold.


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> But Covid-19 is one of these types of virus (Coronavirus) which has fatal symptoms; my point is that the inability to cure the cold over many many decades will not find any further success with this pandemic. And the common cold can lead to pneumonia and other unpleasant side-effects - enough to justify a vaccine, *particularly with children* where croup and asthma are problematic consequences. It is certainly not for the want of trying to find a vaccine for the common cold.


The common cold and this pandemic have nothing to do with each other. But feel free to keep assuming that most common colds are caused by a coronavirus.


----------



## Bigbang

science said:


> Next thread: How serious is the new _*murder hornet*_?


You beat me to it. I hope nature (the gods/god) is not angry with the human species as any offering now may be too late. We certainly do not want to revisit the old days but if we get past our arrogance in denying the effects we have on this planet (climate change, for example) maybe we can stave off this offense for now. But, when money/power is in play, it might take stuff like this to open the channels on a much broader level to unite on a worldwide goal of dealing with these problems.


----------



## Bigbang

Kieran said:


> Sounds like a bargain. What colour tights attracts the Murder Hornet? We don't want to lose any time.....


I hear their experts at decapitation. Not pretty at all so be careful.


----------



## science

The New Yorker: Why Weren't We Ready for the Coronavirus?

Among the recent numbers: 58% of workers at a Tyson meat factory in Iowa tested positive for coronavirus.

That is not the factory that briefly became famous during the Iowa caucuses for the immigrant workers who voted for Bernie Sanders. That factory Was in Ottumwa, Walpello County (a fine WaPo story of how Buttigieg's app treated that county), also one of the harder hit counties in Iowa with an infection rate of .31% -- unusually high for such a rural county (as maps like this show).


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## KenOC

It seems to me that as our numbers grow, and we necessarily become closer together, pandemics are likely to occur at an increasing rate. Of course that is only one likely effect of overcrowding, and probably not the worst one.


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## KenOC

Per this morning's report on Marketwatch, one out of five Wendy's locations nationwide are out of beef for their burgers. I'm seeing reports of various meat processing plants reporting Covid-19 cases in the hundreds. Collateral damage: *3 USDA meat inspectors dead, about 145 diagnosed with COVID-19*.


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## DaveM

All of a sudden, the administration is talking about shutting the task force down. Looks like our great leader thinks it isn’t working for the country...er, him anymore.


----------



## pianozach

science said:


> Next thread: How serious is the new _*murder hornet*_?





Bigbang said:


> I hear their experts at decapitation. Not pretty at all so be careful.


I saw a video today of a murder hornet taking down a rat.


----------



## Jacck

Why has eastern Europe suffered less from coronavirus than the west?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west


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## erki

> Why has eastern Europe suffered less from coronavirus than the west?


Isn't it possibly so that all of us have to go through the same path in the end. The nations who successfully stopped the spread of the virus in reality just postponed this and face additional waves as the restrictions get eased. We do not know this yet, but I find no comfort in low numbers some how.
As this has been brought up few times already here: the initial idea was to *flatten* the curb so the medical would be able to cope. But it quickly turned into sports of hiding from the virus - shelter in place, masks, distancing etc. And the winners are showing off their trophies already.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Jacck said:


> Why has eastern Europe suffered less from coronavirus than the west?
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west


Would the lower figures also possibly have something to do with fewer people coming to and going from those countries during the winter months?


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## science

Jacck said:


> Why has eastern Europe suffered less from coronavirus than the west?
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west


Just a touch further east than the article covers, Russia has been finding 10k new cases a day lately.


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## Sad Al

According to the rules of this forum, the _community forum is the place for those fun, and not so serious threads_. Therefore COVID-19* must* be fun and not so serious. 
If COVID-19 isn't fun but rather is serious, this thread breaks the rules of this forum.


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## erki

I just heard the news about Czech random testing for antibodies. It said that the number of infected was much much lower than expected(16000 tests 104 infected). So this may be bad news - the virus is much more dangerous and deadly if you catch it. Or good news - it is not too likely that you get it.


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## Room2201974

Cooked bat? Cooked bat?????? No wonder I'm confused, I thought they said *corked bat*.* 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ne...te-rose-had-bats-corked/ar-BB13zCVO?ocid=AMZN

*Technically, developed in a highly secretive Canadian lab.

My reply to post #3879


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## Sad Al

Really? I hear it's very easy to catch. Just attend a football match (if any) or visit McBurgers. My aunt got it after she or her friend returned from a holiday in the Alps. These February skiing holidays in the Alps were real feasts for viruses and bacteria. In March 2020 they were all welcome back with their cocktail of COVID-19 and bacteria


----------



## Bigbang

pianozach said:


> I saw a video today of a murder hornet taking down a rat.


But if they manage to to serious damage to honey bees hives we will have a serious food shortage. As it is scientists have known this was something to worry about but now it is becoming increasingly more obvious.


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## Sad Al

Bigbang said:


> we will have a serious food shortage.


We're a bunch of meat eaters on a desert island/planet. Cannibalism?


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## elgar's ghost

Only Asian honey bees know how to deal with the giant Asian hornet - when the hornet snouts around the hive they mob it and virtually boil it to death with their greater body heat. European honey bees introduced into Asia for their higher honey yield attack hornets one bee at a time and end up having their heads bitten off as they haven't encountered such large predators from the insect world in Europe, and as a result haven't evolved a proper defence mechanism.


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## Jacck

erki said:


> Isn't it possibly so that all of us have to go through the same path in the end. The nations who successfully stopped the spread of the virus in reality just postponed this and face additional waves as the restrictions get eased. We do not know this yet, but I find no comfort in low numbers some how.
> As this has been brought up few times already here: the initial idea was to *flatten* the curb so the medical would be able to cope. But it quickly turned into sports of hiding from the virus - shelter in place, masks, distancing etc. And the winners are showing off their trophies already.


and postponement was the right thing to do. Countries like Sweden acted higly irresponsibly in a situation of an unknown virus. Maybe they will get lucky this time and the Swedish approach will show itself to have been the best in hindsight. But next time, they might not get so lucky. It was absolutely the best decision to postpone it and study and learn more about the virus. In the meantime, we might find treatment or a vaccine (or not).


----------



## science

Jacck said:


> and postponement was the right thing to do. Countries like Sweden acted higly irresponsibly in a situation of an unknown virus. Maybe they will get lucky this time and the Swedish approach will show itself to have been the best in hindsight. But next time, they might not get so lucky. It was absolutely the best decision to postpone it and study and learn more about the virus. In the meantime, we might find treatment or a vaccine (or not).


Since there are so many confounding variables between Sweden and (for example) the US, Italy, Japan, Brazil, etc., it'd probably best to eliminate as many of them as possible by comparing Sweden to the countries most similar in terms of culture, preexisting healthcare systems, and so on -- obviously that's Denmark and Norway.

That comparison does not look as well for Sweden as the comparison between Sweden and the US. So if Sweden's response is posited as an ideal, someone will have to explain why its results are so much worse than the results achieved by Denmark's and Norway's responses.


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> Since there are so many confounding variables between Sweden and (for example) the US, Italy, Japan, Brazil, etc., it'd probably best to eliminate as many of them as possible by comparing Sweden to the countries most similar in terms of culture, preexisting healthcare systems, and so on -- obviously that's Denmark and Norway.
> 
> That comparison does not look as well for Sweden as the comparison between Sweden and the US. So if Sweden's response is posited as an ideal, someone will have to explain why its results are so much worse than the results achieved by Denmark's and Norway's responses.


this was just the first battle, the war is no over yet. Maybe the Swedes will let the virus run through the population, gain herd immunity and will be able to return to normal life as first ones. And those that slowed the virus down will be still struggling with lockdowns, because their population will not have immunity.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> this was just the first battle, the war is no over yet. Maybe the Swedes will let the virus run through the population, gain herd immunity and will be able to return to normal life as first ones. And those that slowed the virus down will be still struggling with lockdowns, because their population will not have immunity.


Absolutely. It's way to early to judge who's doing well, and who isn't, until maybe we've faced the second and third waves, barring a successful vaccine hitting the shelves soon. But some countries have low numbers simply because their population is hidden. I'm not sure that's proven itself to be a long term winner yet, but meanwhile Sweden may have stolen a crucial march in the race for herd immunity. Their hospital system isn't cracking apart at the seams, like other countries are, so they're probably very wise to stay open...


----------



## Kieran

elgars ghost said:


> Only Asian honey bees know how to deal with the giant Asian hornet - when the hornet snouts around the hive they mob it and virtually boil it to death with their greater body heat. European honey bees introduced into Asia for their higher honey yield attack hornets one bee at a time and end up having their heads bitten off as they haven't encountered such large predators from the insect world in Europe, and as a result haven't evolved a proper defence mechanism.


Ah yes, I read about this a while ago - they vibrate their flight muscles, generating a heat intolerable for the murder hornet, but safe for the honeybees. Don't know how the European honeybee will come to learn of this...


----------



## elgar's ghost

Kieran said:


> Ah yes, I read about this a while ago - they vibrate their flight muscles, generating a heat intolerable for the murder hornet, but safe for the honeybees. Don't know how the European honeybee will come to learn of this...


The giant hornet and honey bee have been co-existing in Asia for millions of years so it's a natural phenomenon. If the giant hornet manages to gain a toe-hold in Europe then the bee population would probably be wiped out before learning how to deal with them. Perhaps the aggressive African honey bee could deal with the giant hornet, but we really don't want either creature over here at all - our own hornet species is fairly docile (far more so than the common wasp) but they would also be preyed upon by their larger Asian cousins.


----------



## philoctetes

just saw a video of "japanese" bees defending their colony from one of those hornets... the hornet taking its first victim is classic horror-show stuff


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## EdwardBast

Kieran said:


> Absolutely. It's way to early to judge who's doing well, and who isn't, until maybe we've faced the second and third waves, barring a successful vaccine hitting the shelves soon. But some countries have low numbers simply because their population is hidden. I'm not sure that's proven itself to be a long term winner yet, but meanwhile Sweden may have stolen a crucial march in the race for herd immunity. *Their hospital system isn't cracking apart at the seams, like other countries are, so they're probably very wise to stay open...*


I'm not aware anyone has yet established that immunity of any substantial duration is conferred on those afflicted with Covid-19. Or that herd immunity is possible for this virus. We are all hopeful, but at this point I'll stop at your first couple of sentences and agree: "It's way too early to judge."


----------



## Flamme

philoctetes said:


> just saw a video of "japanese" bees defending their colony from one of those hornets... the hornet taking its first victim is classic horror-show stuff


The way they kill a big bully intruder is very interesting...They gather around him in hundreds and generate a strong heat wave that either coox or burns its victim 2 death!!!


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> Why has eastern Europe suffered less from coronavirus than the west?
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west


*"The most important reason, however, seems to be the early lockdown implemented by almost all countries in the region"*

Here in the US we had leaders that pretended it was under control; after all, on *January 31st* the President shut down air traffic to and from China to all but American citizens. And he stressed that it would be gone in a week or so, that it would _*"disappear . . . like a miracle"*_. And the President has continually minimized the risk (at best), or called it *"a hoax"* (at worst).

On *March 2*, travel restrictions were implemented on foreign nationals who had been in Iran within the previous two weeks. An exemption was made for immediate family members of U.S. citizens and permanent residents. This measure was announced on February 29.

On *March 16*, Trump announced "15 Days to Slow the Spread"-a series of *guidelines* based on CDC recommendations on topics such as physical distancing, self-isolation, and protecting those at high risk. The government also *recommended* closing schools and avoiding gatherings of more than ten people.

Trump administration officials were briefed to the coronavirus outbreak in China on *January 3*, 2020

Our *testing effort was slow*, obscuring the extent of the outbreak. Many of the 160,000 test kits produced in February were found to be defective and were not used. Academic laboratories, hospitals and private companies were not allowed to use their own tests until *29 February*, when the FDA started issuing approvals for them, and initially, there were eligibility restrictions for receiving a COVID-19 test.

By the end of February only 4,000-10,000 people (in a nation with 325 million) had even been tested. By the end of the first week in March that was up to 14,000

As far as lockdowns went, it seems that the *states were waiting for federal guidance and information*, which, one by one, they started realizing that the federal government was not handling the pandemic competently, and that they were all on their own.

By March 21, governors in *New York, California* and other large states had ordered most businesses to close and for people to stay inside, with limited exceptions.

Sorry - you said "the West" and I immediately thought "Western hemisphere".


----------



## pianozach

science said:


> Just a touch further east than the article covers, Russia has been finding 10k new cases a day lately.


Many of us have been saying for weeks that there are places in the world that seemed to not be supplying reliable numbers.


----------



## Jacck

pianozach said:


> *"The most important reason, however, seems to be the early lockdown implemented by almost all countries in the region"*
> 
> Here in the US we had leaders that pretended it was under control; after all, on *January 31st* the President shut down air traffic to and from China to all but American citizens. And he stressed that it would be gone in a week or so, that it would _*"disappear . . . like a miracle"*_. And the President has continually minimized the risk (at best), or called it *"a hoax"* (at worst).


the ironic thing is that Trump could have easily used the virus to win reelection, if he reacted well at the beginning. He likely believed the virus is a new hoax, just like he believed conspiracy theories about servers in Ukraine or does not trust his intelligence agencies, that Russia interfered in the election. I am almost sorry for the man.


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## Flamme

In my country everything is boiling over because government announced elections on july 26...It is 2 early and we already have a totalitarian leader on the throne...He even organised thugs who burned torches and played loud anti-opposition messages from the rooftops in a strange ''answer'' to spontaneous ''noise against dictatorship'' where citizens go out every night after the applause for medical workers and bang pottery or any metal object in protest against the rulling class/elite...


----------



## Kieran

pianozach said:


> Sorry - you said "the West" and I immediately thought "Western hemisphere".


You're American, you think "the west" means America :lol:


----------



## pianozach

Jacck said:


> the ironic thing is that Trump could have easily used the virus to win reelection, if he reacted well at the beginning. He likely believed the virus is a new hoax, just like he believed conspiracy theories about servers in Ukraine or does not trust his intelligence agencies, that Russia interfered in the election. I am almost sorry for the man.


I think that Trump's response was not motivated by anything in particular other than reflex. As a businessman in charge of a fluid financial 'empire', he merely ordered stuff, and it was done. He bullied, cheated, sued, and used the money of investors to pay the bills and skimmed off the top. His charity was shut down because his crime family was simply using that money for their own purposes.

My theory is that *he thought that bullying the virus would make it go away*.


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> and postponement was the right thing to do. Countries like Sweden acted highly irresponsibly in a situation of an unknown virus.


I am not convinced it was the right thing to do. Specially if we never get treatment or vaccine so that we need to live with this virus in anyway. I do not want to live in the world where governments have the power to basically jail people for their own safety. I accept the suggestion to be responsible but that should not be reinforced with extent of the law.
Also I vehemently disagree that Sweden acted irresponsibly. They advised people to distance, stay at homes, not to gather in large groups etc in the same time monitoring the situation and acting only if there was eminent need. Many other countries just locked down everything in case. I would rather say the opposite - they acted more responsibly that others by taking in account the ills of lockdown as well.


----------



## pianozach

Trump story of the day:

Yesterday he visited a mask factory. Masks are manufactured in "clean" environments, just like medicines or surgical equipment.

He swaggered around without a mask, effectively contaminating every mask in the plant.

The funny part is that the warehouse sound system was ironically blaring Paul McCartney's *LIVE AND LET DIE*.


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## Kieran

Like I said before, in Sweden the nightclubs are still open and young people are dancing - while still practising social distancing. This isn't irresponsible, it's placing trust in civilians who then show they know what to do...


----------



## Flamme

pianozach said:


> Trump story of the day:
> 
> Yesterday he visited a mask factory. Masks are manufactured in "clean" environments, just like medicines or surgical equipment.
> 
> He swaggered around without a mask, effectively contaminating every mask in the plant.
> 
> The funny part is that the warehouse sound system was ironically blaring Paul McCartney's *LIVE AND LET DIE*.


Wasnt that Mike Pence...


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> I am not convinced it was the right thing to do. Specially if we never get treatment or vaccine so that we need to live with this virus in anyway. I do not want to live in the world where governments have the power to basically jail people for their own safety. I accept the suggestion to be responsible but that should not be reinforced with extent of the law.
> Also I vehemently disagree that Sweden acted irresponsibly. They advised people to distance, stay at homes, not to gather in large groups etc in the same time monitoring the situation and acting only if there was eminent need. Many other countries just locked down everything in case. I would rather say the opposite - they acted more responsibly that others by taking in account the ills of lockdown as well.


that acted irresponsibly, because they did not know what kind of virus they are dealing with. Again, it is like playing Russian roulette. Maybe they got lucky this time, next time they might not


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## philoctetes

The Swedes claim they are socially responsible enough to limit the contagion without lockdown... sounds too good to be true but they may be more accustomed to isolated living than many of the heavily affected populations... S America will soon become a headline hotspot... and going into winter won't help...

Americans are acting up the way we can expect... bi***ing and snitching... I could be a snitcher due to living right by a public park entrance... the parks opened up to walk-and bike-in only last week... which is ideal but the cars keep coming anyway... snitching's not my style so I've just barricaded the street parking around my house and adopted a laissez faire policy - don't trouble me and there will be no trouble... it's funny to see the Don't Tread On Me flags carried by protestors... they'd be trespassing on my street if they had their way... right under my neighbor's DTOM flag...


----------



## mmsbls

Clearly countries differ widely in characteristics that may affect Covid-19 outcomes. We will require more time and data to sort out these effects and understand policy benefits. People have discussed Sweden's policy in both good and bad terms, but we don't really know yet. 

Obviously there is more to policy than deaths and GDP, but here are some initial estimates:

Deaths/million people

Sweden - 136
Denmark - 58
Germany - 49

Economic contraction forecast by J. P. Morgan

Sweden - 2.4% first quarter, 13.7% second quarter
Germany - 3.1% first quarter, 16.6% second quarter
Euro area - 4% first quarter, 17.3% second quarter
Norway - 30


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> Trump story of the day:
> 
> Yesterday he visited a mask factory. Masks are manufactured in "clean" environments, just like medicines or surgical equipment.
> 
> He swaggered around without a mask, effectively contaminating every mask in the plant.
> 
> The funny part is that the warehouse sound system was ironically blaring Paul McCartney's *LIVE AND LET DIE*.





Flamme said:


> Wasnt that Mike Pence...


A maskless *Pence* toured a hospital filled with COVID-19 positive patients a few days ago.

Yesterday maskless Trump toured the factory. He did, however, wear some safety glasses.

'Live and Let Die' blasted out as Trump toured a coronavirus mask factory without covering his face

President Donald Trump, wearing no mask, was being shown the properties of mask materials when "Live and Let Die" played over the sound system at the Honeywell factory on Tuesday

_"President Donald Trump had an arresting soundtrack on a visit Tuesday to a mask factory, during which the Guns N' Roses version of "Live and Let Die" played out."
_
https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...sk-factory-live-and-let-die-soundtrack-2020-5


----------



## philoctetes

The evolution of CV modelling, starting with simple non-stationary exponential growth, has developed this parameter everybody talks about, R, Rt, R0, which I gather are all the same... defined as the average number of people that an infected person infects, which is NOT the same as a daily growth rate for infection, but similarly ranges over values > 1 when virus is spreading too fast...

I followed rt.live before they altered their models on 4/26 and the difference afterwards was startling... mostly positive, bringing the Rt values down significantly for most states... then found the link to where the Rt calculation algorithm is described...

I really wonder what to think of this, compared to a simple one-day growth rate, as the latter is quite transparent while this Rt requires estimates of incubation times, convolving distributions, and various adjustments... considering that this has become the key parameter that judgments are being made upon, I feel I can safely assume that few policy officials can understand what it means...

https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/master/Realtime%20Rt%20mcmc.ipynb


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> Like I said before, in Sweden the nightclubs are still open and young people are dancing - while still practising social distancing...


Of course they are...


----------



## philoctetes

Well we can always count on good doctors like Neil Ferguson to show us the right way to be....


----------



## Kieran

philoctetes said:


> The Swedes claim they are socially responsible enough to limit the contagion without lockdown... sounds too good to be true but they may be more accustomed to isolated living than many of the heavily affected populations... S America will soon become a headline hotspot... and going into winter won't help...
> 
> Americans are acting up the way we can expect... bi***ing and snitching... I could be a snitcher due to living right by a public park entrance... the parks opened up to walk-and bike-in only last week... which is ideal but the cars keep coming anyway... snitching's not my style so I've just barricaded the street parking around my house and adopted a laissez faire policy - don't trouble me and there will be no trouble... it's funny to see the Don't Tread On Me flags carried by protestors... they'd be trespassing on my street if they had their way... right under my neighbor's DTOM flag...


Swede's are cool, isolated, and so far they've acted very responsibly with the freedom they've been allowed to keep. Soon, all governments are going to have to trust the populace, and not keep us hidden away. And that will need to be _very soon._ I just hope people in my country are up to it...


----------



## Jacck

they announced today to result of an antibody study in my country. They tested 28000 people and found out, that less than 1% had the disease (5% in most affected areas). That is really bad. We are at the very beginning.


----------



## mountmccabe

KenOC said:


> A new study indicates at least one *mutated strain* of the coronavirus, which may account for different experiences in different places. Possibly a big problem in preparing a vaccine…
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> In the United States, doctors had begun to independently question whether new strains of the virus could account for the differences in how it has infected, sickened and killed people, said Alan Wu, a UC San Francisco professor who runs the clinical chemistry and toxicology laboratories at San Francisco General Hospital.
> 
> Medical experts have speculated in recent weeks that they were seeing at least two strains of the virus in the U.S., one prevalent on the East Coast and another on the West Coast, according to Wu.
> 
> "We are looking to identify the mutation," he said, noting that his hospital has had only a few deaths out of the hundreds of cases it has treated, which is "quite a different story than we are hearing from New York."





pianozach said:


> *The coronavirus has mutated and appears to be more contagious now, new study finds
> *
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the...o-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds.html


Scientists in the industry are pushing back at these stories.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257691501213057024
"This is a double doozy. First, there's no new strain. Second, there's no evidence that there is reinfection from #SARSCoV2 at this point."


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1256422856436613126
"This preprint has been getting attention. It claims that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is mutating into a more transmissible form as the pandemic wears on. I think those claims are suspect, to say the least..."


----------



## philoctetes

Everybody believes in science, yeah baby, me too.... but not every scientist is believable and they can't all argue and be right at the same time...


----------



## philoctetes

Some states have a huge diversity in their populations and lifestyles, even without importing it... California, Michigan, and now Texas all fit this "type" and all all are having major lockdown enforcement issues... due IMO to the "one size fits all" approach that really does not fit more rural districts...

A hairdresser and mother in Texas was jailed for 7 days... and fined heavily not for defying the order but for remarks in court after the judge required she admit wrongdoing as a bargain... he could have simply fined her lightly without shaming and overpunishing her... some things in Texas are still the same...


----------



## philoctetes

In my county, the lockdown has been lightened just a bit but extended indefinitely... though we don't have a lot of cases and I feel pretty sure that our main reason for extending the lockdown is to restrict visiting violators from nearby Bay Area counties, Oakland, and SF which have much higher rates of infection and deaths... our BnBs would be full of Bay Area people if it was allowed...


----------



## KenOC

philoctetes said:


> ...I really wonder what to think of this, compared to a simple one-day growth rate, as the latter is quite transparent while this Rt requires estimates of incubation times, convolving distributions, and various adjustments... considering that this has become the key parameter that judgments are being made upon, I feel I can safely assume that few policy officials can understand what it means...
> 
> https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/master/Realtime Rt mcmc.ipynb


Interesting, but I suspect he's beating the heck out of fundamentally flaky data.


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> Interesting, but I suspect he's beating the heck out of fundamentally flaky data.


Well my interest is in quality of both algorithm and the data, but we can't talk about why data is flaky without politics... I suppose we could just take the simple man's "Trump's fault" position and nobody here would object... or is it Pence?


----------



## Jacck

Debt to GDP Ratio by Country 2020
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-national-debt/
I wonder how the virus is going to change the debts. Debts will grow and GDP will shrink. Italy has especially a lot of debt


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> Debt to GDP Ratio by Country 2020
> https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-national-debt/
> I wonder how the virus is going to change the debts. Debts will grow and GDP will shrink. Italy has especially a lot of debt


Our US Fed could be running out of ways to prolong it and may simply just buy some of it out through some clever credit arrangements with the treasury... starting with junk bond ETFs... but I get that news from sources that aren't accepted here...


----------



## pianozach

mountmccabe said:


> Scientists in the industry are pushing back at these stories.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257691501213057024
> "This is a double doozy. First, there's no new strain. Second, there's no evidence that there is reinfection from #SARSCoV2 at this point."
> 
> . . .


I've read that there are three or four new strains.

_"Scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory claim they have discovered a new, dominant strain of coronavirus that spreads faster than previous strains, but several prominent virologists are skeptical about the study and its conclusions.

The new strain was first detected in Europe in February and then spread to the East Coast of the United States, where it has become the dominant strain of coronavirus, said the Los Alamos researchers, who worked with scientists from Duke University and the University of Sheffield in England."_

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/New-dominant-strain-of-coronavirus-reported-15248094.php

I guess the challenge is that because the news on this develops so quickly, and experts are suspicious and critical of something we don't know that much about in the first place . . . well, you get new stories, and then people calling them "a hoax" right away.

All we can do is try to keep up with the news and opinions, and wait for credible followup.

"


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Our US Fed could be running out of ways to prolong it and may simply just buy some of it out through some clever credit arrangements with the treasury... starting with junk bond ETFs...


How would that work? Junk bonds are traditionally higher risk bonds from companies with poor credit. How could the Fed or treasury -associated with virtually all loan instruments being backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S.- be connected with junk bonds? Or is the theory that companies would issue junk bonds that the Fed would buy? Even that seems unlikely for similar reasons.


----------



## KenOC

Right now scientists seem divided over whether or not there is more than one strain of the virus. However the differences between our two largest states, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast, are striking.

In short, New York has an infection rate 11 times that of California and a death rate 21 times higher, even though the virus seems to have reached California first. We can hypothesize lots of reasons for this discrepancy, but still it seems to me to suggest two different strains of the virus.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> How would that work? Junk bonds are traditionally higher risk bonds from companies with poor credit. How could the Fed or treasury -associated with virtually all loan instruments being backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S.- be connected with junk bonds? Or is the theory that companies would issue junk bonds that the Fed would buy? Even that seems unlikely for similar reasons.


The Treasury cannot issue junk bonds in the traditional sense because the government is constitutionally barred from dishonoring its debts. Thus the bonds _will _be redeemed according to their indentures.

However, by that time the redemptions may be valueless because the dollar may be valueless. So they could be considered junk bonds in that sense


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> Well my interest is in quality of both algorithm and the data, but we can't talk about why data is flaky without politics... I suppose we could just take the simple man's "Trump's fault" position and nobody here would object... or is it Pence?


it's Trump and it's not a matter of objecting, it's a matter of fact


----------



## science

The main debt that the federal government really cannot inflate its way out of is Social Security. Inflating away the debt owed to others (other countries, private lenders, etc.) might be politically feasible or maybe someday even politically easy, but Social Security payments will have to be adjusted for inflation. Technically they could change COLA to avoid a bit of it but they better do it subtly... 

Anyway, the response to coronavirus has shown that there is probably no limit to the amount of money the government is willing and able to create to keep the corporate elite comfortable. Hopefully that's a lesson that a lot of voters think about.


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> The Swedes claim they are socially responsible enough to limit the contagion without lockdown... sounds too good to be true but they may be more accustomed to isolated living than many of the heavily affected populations... S America will soon become a headline hotspot... and going into winter won't help...
> 
> Americans are acting up the way we can expect... bi***ing and snitching... I could be a snitcher due to living right by a public park entrance... the parks opened up to walk-and bike-in only last week... which is ideal but the cars keep coming anyway... snitching's not my style so I've just barricaded the street parking around my house and adopted a laissez faire policy - don't trouble me and there will be no trouble... it's funny to see the Don't Tread On Me flags carried by protestors... they'd be trespassing on my street if they had their way... right under my neighbor's DTOM flag...


one persons snitch is another's responsible citizen


----------



## eljr

science said:


> The main debt that the federal government really cannot inflate its way out of is Social Security. Inflating away the debt owed to others (other countries, private lenders, etc.) might be politically feasible or maybe someday even politically easy, but Social Security payments will have to be adjusted for inflation. Technically they could change COLA to avoid a bit of it but they better do it subtly...
> 
> Anyway, the response to coronavirus has shown that there is probably no limit to the amount of money the government is willing and able to create to keep the corporate elite comfortable. Hopefully that's a lesson that a lot of voters think about.


COLA has been changed twice recently to screw seniors


----------



## KenOC

science said:


> The main debt that the federal government really cannot inflate its way out of is Social Security. Inflating away the debt owed to others (other countries, private lenders, etc.) might be politically feasible or maybe someday even politically easy, but Social Security payments will have to be adjusted for inflation. Technically they could change COLA to avoid a bit of it but they better do it subtly...


The Social Security Trust Administration refers to its "obligations" rather than its "liabilities" because the latter term involves an enforceable contractual obligation. SS has no legal obligation to pay any particular amount to its participants.

"The Social Security Administration's authority to make benefit payments as granted by Congress extends only to its current revenues and existing Trust Fund balance, i.e., redemption of its holdings of Treasury securities. Therefore, Social Security's ability to make full payments once annual benefits exceed revenues depends in part on the federal government's ability to make good on the bonds that it has issued to the Social Security trust funds. As with any other federal obligation, the federal government's ability to repay Social Security is based on its power to tax and borrow and the commitment of Congress to meet its obligations." --Wiki


----------



## Kopachris

My company is starting to let people back in the office. Only half the office any given week, the other half working from home, swapping off each week. I "get" to go back to work on Monday. Aw, it'll be nice to see some people again anyway.


----------



## Guest

The lawyers are out and about in Australia looking to cash in on Coronavirus!! Didn't see that coming: NOT.


----------



## KenOC

*My worry as well*. Three trillion so far and counting… The new Greece?
-------------------------------------------------
A top Republican known for his conservative fiscal policy says he is against the U.S. government spending money it cannot repay to bail out those negatively affected by the coronavirus.

Speaking to a masked C-SPAN reporter, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul reiterated his position on spending, saying he's against borrowing from China to fund another round of economic relief for small businesses underwater because of the coronavirus.

"As far as any more relief, though, there is no money," Paul said. "There's no rainy day fund. There's no savings. I mean, there really is no money. It means we'd have to borrow money from China and other countries, and I'm not for spending more money that we don't have."


----------



## Varick

Sweden has been the only mature country in this entire mess. Slightly elevating risk in the now, to build up herd immunity to have a lower infection/death rate for the second wave. This is one of the most wise, mature, and sober decisions any country has made. Total one-size-fits-all lock down everywhere was one of the dumbest mistakes mankind has every made.

There is an old wise saying that when you are dealing with a known and an unkown that are at odds with each other (Cost and ramifications of lock down - known. Covid-19 effect - unkown) you always go with the known.

We, collectively as a species went with the unkown. Lock down's in hot spots like NYC, Bergen County, NJ (where I live), Certain places in Italy, Spain, etc - Good idea. Lock down in Tennessee, Wyoming, South Dakota, India, Packistan, Poland, et al. Disastrously stupid and idiotic. The cause will be so many more deaths and ruined lives than the Corona Virus could ever possible kill.

I'm sorry, but if you're getting your information from any main stream media source (I can only speak for USA) like ABC, NBC, CBS, NY Times, SF Chronicle, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, Washington Post, etc, etc to "understand" more about this virus and how we should react to it, then you might as well look at the bottom of your tea cup. Those leaves will have just as much accurate information. At least HALF of what you're hearing from the CDC and 4/5ths of what you're getting out of the WHO is complete rubbish.

Beam me up scotty, there's no more intelligent life here. But hold on, I need to gather my Bach collection first.

V


----------



## premont

Jacck said:


> they announced today to result of an antibody study in my country. They tested 28000 people and found out, that less than 1% had the disease (5% in most affected areas). That is really bad. We are at the very beginning.


I wasn't aware, that you believe in herd immunity.


----------



## Bigbang

KenOC said:


> *My worry as well*. Three trillion so far and counting… The new Greece?
> -------------------------------------------------
> A top Republican known for his conservative fiscal policy says he is against the U.S. government spending money it cannot repay to bail out those negatively affected by the coronavirus.
> 
> Speaking to a masked C-SPAN reporter, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul reiterated his position on spending, saying he's against borrowing from China to fund another round of economic relief for small businesses underwater because of the coronavirus.
> 
> "As far as any more relief, though, there is no money," Paul said. "There's no rainy day fund. There's no savings. I mean, there really is no money. It means we'd have to borrow money from China and other countries, and I'm not for spending more money that we don't have."


Uh, Mr. Paul, are you on record about your views on the deficit? Since Bill Clinton left office, George Bush decided to use the surplus for military spending and what not. Well, here we are. I guess Trump could care less as his strategy will be to blame everyone else. So it will unfortunately fall on the coming generations.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

bz3 said:


> In other words we are strangers, and have nothing whatever to say to one another.


This sentiment of alienation is becoming a thing . Beware viral insanity ...


----------



## pianozach

KenOC said:


> Right now scientists seem divided over whether or not there is more than one strain of the virus. However the differences between our two largest states, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast, are striking.
> 
> In short, New York has an infection rate 11 times that of California and a death rate 21 times higher, even though the virus seems to have reached California first. We can hypothesize lots of reasons for this discrepancy, but still it seems to me to suggest two different strains of the virus.


Possibly.

But I think it's more likely a result of the difference in population density. While technically the Los Angeles urbanized area is, surprisingly, more dense than that of NYC, OVERALL NYC is MORE dense than L.A.

https://www.accessmagazine.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/0506OsgoodEtAL_LANYDensity_Poster.pdf

.

AND if you were to compare the two states (California and New York), the densities are not even close.

https://www.opendatanetwork.com/ent...ornia/geographic.population.density?year=2017


----------



## pianozach

Varick said:


> Sweden has been the only mature country in this entire mess. Slightly elevating risk in the now, to build up herd immunity to have a lower infection/death rate for the second wave. This is one of the most wise, mature, and sober decisions any country has made. Total one-size-fits-all lock down everywhere was one of the dumbest mistakes mankind has every made.
> 
> There is an old wise saying that when you are dealing with a known and an unkown that are at odds with each other (Cost and ramifications of lock down - known. Covid-19 effect - unkown) you always go with the known.
> 
> We, collectively as a species went with the unkown. Lock down's in hot spots like NYC, Bergen County, NJ (where I live), Certain places in Italy, Spain, etc - Good idea. Lock down in Tennessee, Wyoming, South Dakota, India, Packistan, Poland, et al. Disastrously stupid and idiotic. The cause will be so many more deaths and ruined lives than the Corona Virus could ever possible kill.
> 
> I'm sorry, but if you're getting your information from any main stream media source (I can only speak for USA) like ABC, NBC, CBS, NY Times, SF Chronicle, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, Washington Post, etc, etc to "understand" more about this virus and how we should react to it, then you might as well look at the bottom of your tea cup. Those leaves will have just as much accurate information. At least HALF of what you're hearing from the CDC and 4/5ths of what you're getting out of the WHO is complete rubbish.
> 
> Beam me up scotty, there's no more intelligent life here. But hold on, I need to gather my Bach collection first.
> 
> V


Yep, seems logical.

BUT . . . we won't actually know for sure until all the data is analyzed properly.


----------



## mmsbls

Varick said:


> There is an old wise saying that when you are dealing with a known and an unkown that are at odds with each other (Cost and ramifications of lock down - known. Covid-19 effect - unkown) you always go with the known.


I'm not much of a fan of old sayings. In this case the effect of sheltering in place is not known and the effect of not sheltering is not unknown. Each are known with some uncertainly. Yes, likely the effect of not sheltering had a greater uncertainty. A wise choice would involve acquiring data and consulting experts to get an understanding of the effects with uncertainties for both (or more) scenarios. Only then could a reasonable decision be made.



Varick said:


> We, collectively as a species went with the unkown. Lock down's in hot spots like NYC, Bergen County, NJ (where I live), Certain places in Italy, Spain, etc - Good idea. Lock down in Tennessee, Wyoming, South Dakota, India, Packistan, Poland, et al. Disastrously stupid and idiotic. The cause will be so many more deaths and ruined lives than the Corona Virus could ever possible kill.


How do you determine which areas are good candidates for sheltering in place? I don't mean in very general terms. That doesn't help much. How would governors or mayors make the determination? You need a metric to evaluate scenarios and to make decisions. How much is a death worth? What is a ruined life and how much is that worth (e.g. does a ruined life equal 0.2 deaths?, 0.4 deaths? etc.). Do you really have any idea whether the deaths, ruined lives, economic contraction, mental distress, rates of recovery, etc. would be better for a country wide shelter in place, no sheltering at all, sheltering or other non-pharmaceutical intervenmtions in certain areas for specific intervals? I have very little idea.



Varick said:


> I'm sorry, but if you're getting your information from any main stream media source (I can only speak for USA) like ABC, NBC, CBS, NY Times, SF Chronicle, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, Washington Post, etc, etc to "understand" more about this virus and how we should react to it, then you might as well look at the bottom of your tea cup. Those leaves will have just as much accurate information. At least HALF of what you're hearing from the CDC and 4/5ths of what you're getting out of the WHO is complete rubbish.


Certainly one must be somewhat careful about where one gets news. I disagree with your statements above, but where do you get your information and how do you know those sources are better? Half of what is on the CDC website relevant to Covid-19 is rubbish? Half?


----------



## science

This is about a week old, but I just found out:



> Florida's Department of Health has stopped publishing the state's medical examiners' coronavirus death data after finding that their count was about 10% higher than the state's official tally, the Tampa Bay Times reported on Wednesday.
> 
> The health department has withheld the medical examiners' data for more than a week, according to the Times.


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> The Social Security Trust Administration refers to its "obligations" rather than its "liabilities" because the latter term involves an enforceable contractual obligation. SS has no legal obligation to pay any particular amount to its participants.
> 
> "The Social Security Administration's authority to make benefit payments as granted by Congress extends only to its current revenues and existing Trust Fund balance, i.e., redemption of its holdings of Treasury securities. Therefore, Social Security's ability to make full payments once annual benefits exceed revenues depends in part on the federal government's ability to make good on the bonds that it has issued to the Social Security trust funds. As with any other federal obligation, the federal government's ability to repay Social Security is based on its power to tax and borrow and the commitment of Congress to meet its obligations." --Wiki


I believe it was obvious that I was talking about what is politically possible rather than what is legally possible.


----------



## science

It looks like Brazil is going to have about 12k new known cases today and nearly 700 new known deaths. 

Russia is having another 11k day. 

The USA continues to lead the world with over 25k new known cases today and over 2500 new known deaths.


----------



## KenOC

Bigbang said:


> Uh, Mr. Paul, are you on record about your views on the deficit?


Rand Paul is a long-term teapartier, adhering to that movement's initial goal of fiscal responsibility. He is also a long-term supporter of a balanced budget amendment. He has been as successful in those efforts as he has been in getting along with his neighbors. :lol:


----------



## science

It's important to hear both sides of a debate. So on the one side we have, for example, scientists, and on the other we have, for example, Florida Pastor Rick Wiles:



> From the very start of the COVID-19 pandemic, End Times broadcaster Rick Wiles began warning that the virus was a plague sent by God to purge the world of sin as the Last Days approach. Wiles repeatedly declared that a "death angel" was sweeping across the globe and dedicated just about every episode of his nightly "TruNews" program for the last several months to warning that life as we have known was about to change forever.
> 
> But Wiles has suddenly changed his tune and has now returned to what he has always done best, which is to spin baseless conspiracy theories. Wiles used his Monday program to assert that the threat from the virus was wildly overblown and to speculate that China never really had a coronavirus outbreak at all but had faked it as cover to unleash the virus on the rest of the world.
> 
> "What if they made us believe Wuhan had massive death, that the entire city had to be fumigated?" Wiles said. "What if it was all a propaganda campaign to introduce a virus in America to bring down the U.S. economy?"
> 
> "It's also possible the entire Wuhan pandemic was staged," he continued. "For what purpose? To destroy the American economy. And I'm not saying that there's no virus here-I believe that absolutely there's a virus here. Fifty-five thousand people are dead. What I'm saying is maybe it never happened in Wuhan. Maybe the entire thing has been a calculated, well planned, well choreographed, well executed attack on the USA because nothing has ever shut us down like this … [This] is the first time in the history of America that churches have been closed from coast to coast."


You've got to give it to him, he really doesn't want you to read stories about Rick Bright.


----------



## pianozach

science said:


> It's important to hear both sides of a debate. So on the one side we have, for example, scientists, and on the other we have, for example, Florida Pastor Rick Wiles:
> 
> You've got to give it to him, he really doesn't want you to read stories about Rick Bright.


So, they DIDN'T close down churches during the 1919 Spanish Flu Pandemic?

I'll bet they DID.


----------



## Open Book

Whatever happened to the Spanish flu? Is it extinct? From herd immunity? It's not clear from anything I've read so far.


----------



## DaveM

science said:


> It's important to hear both sides of a debate. So on the one side we have, for example, scientists, and on the other we have, for example, Florida Pastor Rick Wiles:
> You've got to give it to him, he really doesn't want you to read stories about Rick Bright.


There is a yet undiscovered silly-center of the brain that we can't detect, but which people like Wiles prove exists. This silly-center can concoct 2 totally separate, conflicting ideas which are able to occupy the flawed gray matter at the same time. So he can trot out that Covid-19 is a sign of the End Times and then quickly segue to the premise that it is a hoax perpetrated by China.


----------



## DaveM

A new report indicates that previous figures that 80% of those put on ventilators die are flawed and the actual number may be closer to 20-25%. Some hospitals were apparently dismayed when the higher number was published because they were not seeing those higher numbers and some patients who were aware of the 80% figure were refusing intubation.


----------



## science

Open Book said:


> Whatever happened to the Spanish flu? Is it extinct? From herd immunity? It's not clear from anything I've read so far.


Eventually everyone either died or developed immunity.

I don't know whether it's right to say that it's extinct, but if scientists feared it was likely to return they'd include it in the annual flu shot that most people get to immunize us and (ideally) give us herd immunity.

Incidentally, that's why getting an annual flu shot is important. Scientists around the world are looking for new versions of the flu, and when they see one that might be a problem they get it into the flu shot for that season. But some people (such as people with compromised immune system) cannot get the vaccination, so the rest of need to do so, even if we believe the flu would not kill us. The point is not only to protect ourselves but to create herd immunity in order to protect the people who can't get the shot and would be at risk of dying from the flu.

In the same way, the people who refuse to vaccinate their healthy children for measles are actually putting other people's children in danger.

Anyway. Hopefully herd stupidity is not more powerful than herd immunity.


----------



## KenOC

SARS (2002-2004) infected less than 10,000 people. It disappeared and was never seen again. I have seen no explanation of this.


----------



## Varick

mmsbls said:


> I'm not much of a fan of old sayings. In this case the effect of sheltering in place is not known and the effect of not sheltering is not unknown. Each are known with some uncertainly. Yes, likely the effect of not sheltering had a greater uncertainty. A wise choice would involve acquiring data and consulting experts to get an understanding of the effects with uncertainties for both (or more) scenarios. Only then could a reasonable decision be made.


We knew that shutting down almost everything, ie: sheltering in place, would have an absolutely devastating effect on the economy. Everyone knew this. Even I knew this. What we didn't know is how bad this virus would be.



mmsbls said:


> How do you determine which areas are good candidates for sheltering in place? I don't mean in very general terms. That doesn't help much. How would governors or mayors make the determination? You need a metric to evaluate scenarios and to make decisions. How much is a death worth? What is a ruined life and how much is that worth (e.g. does a ruined life equal 0.2 deaths?, 0.4 deaths? etc.). Do you really have any idea whether the deaths, ruined lives, economic contraction, mental distress, rates of recovery, etc. would be better for a country wide shelter in place, no sheltering at all, sheltering or other non-pharmaceutical intervenmtions in certain areas for specific intervals? I have very little idea.


There are simple economic metrics such as every 1% increase in unemployment is equivalent to approx 10,000 deaths (these numbers are relevant to the USA. I can't speak on specific numbers for any other country, but the same rule applies in general). This is due to suicides, increase in mental and emotional health risks such as increase in depression, substance abuse, stress, etc. We went from the lowest unemployment in US recorded history 3 months ago to the highest in recorded history. The full effects of this haven't even begun to manifest yet.

We know enough and knew enough pattern recognition at least 3 weeks ago (many places longer) where risk was high (a handful of places) and was not high (everywhere else).



mmsbls said:


> Certainly one must be somewhat careful about where one gets news. I disagree with your statements above, but where do you get your information and how do you know those sources are better? Half of what is on the CDC website relevant to Covid-19 is rubbish? Half?


I get my information from Doctors and people who are at the forefront of this thing who AREN'T spokesmen/women for particular media outlet(s) and/or politicians. People like Dr. Daniel Erikson and his partner who are emergency physicians in Bakersfield, CA who's Youtube video was taken down because the didn't tow the correct main stream line of thinking and gave their professional OPINION from what they've seen and done from hands on experience. Of what works and doesn't work. People like Dr. Zelenko from Lennox Hill Hospital in NYC, Dr. David Price (who may have seen and treated more Covid patients than any other Dr in the US) from NY Presbyterian, Weill Cornell Hospital in NYC. Just to name a few.

I'm in 2-4 Hospitals every day working in NYC, NJ, & Westchester & Rockland Counties (NY). I talk to many doctors and nurses who are dealing with this stuff more than anyone.

Check out this youtube video before they take it down: 



A lot there in 25 or so minutes. These are only a handful of sources I listen to, read, or watch.

Old sayings and aphorisms are often infused with great wisdom that was gained through a lot of time and experience. Wisdom that often far exceeds yours or my experiences. You may want to become a bigger fan. There is a lot to learn from them.

V


----------



## science

KenOC said:


> SARS (2002-2004) infected less than 10,000 people. It disappeared and was never seen again. I have seen no explanation of this.


In 2006, the WHO published a book titled "SARS: how a global epidemic was stopped."

Interestingly, "Lesson 1" from the final chapter (page 243) entitled "We were lucky this time," reads:



> Certain characteristics of the SARS virus made containment possible. Infected individuals usually did not transmit the virus until several days after symptoms began and were most infectious only by the tenth day or so of illness, when they develop severe symptoms. Therefore, effective isolation of patients was enough to control spread.


So there's the explanation.

The paragraph continues:



> If cases were infectious before symptoms appeared, or if asymptomatic cases transmitted the virus, the disease would have been much more difficult, perhaps even impossible, to control.


And here we are.


----------



## science

Varick said:


> There are simple economic metrics such as *every 1% increase* is equivalent to approx 10,000 deaths (these numbers are relevant to the USA. I can't speak on specific numbers for any other country, but the same rule applies in general). This is due to suicides, increase in mental and emotional health risks such as increase in depression, substance abuse, stress, etc. We went from the lowest unemployment in US recorded history 3 months ago to the highest in recorded history. The full effects of this haven't even begun to manifest yet.


1% increase in what?


----------



## Varick

science said:


> 1% increase in what?


I fixed it. I forgot to put Unemployment.

V


----------



## science

Varick said:


> I fixed it. I forgot to put Unemployment.
> 
> V


I wonder about the evidence for that and the causes. I've seen a study that showed that the 2008 financial crisis and recession led to about 8000 additional suicides in Europe and the USA from 2008 to 2011.

That is a fraction of the numbers you're citing though. I wonder if the difference is a result of American working class families losing health insurance when they lose their job, and if so I wonder if we can imagine _any_ kind of policy that would ameliorate that pain....


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> SARS (2002-2004) infected less than 10,000 people. It disappeared and was never seen again. I have seen no explanation of this.


This is what happened and apparently it will happen again:


----------



## Art Rock

Seen elsewhere:

The spread of the COVID-19 virus is mainly affected by two factors:

1. How dense the population is
2. How dense the population is


----------



## mmsbls

Varick said:


> We knew that shutting down almost everything, ie: sheltering in place, would have an absolutely devastating effect on the economy. Everyone knew this. Even I knew this. What we didn't know is how bad this virus would be.


True, but "absolutely devastating" is a very poorly defined economic term. On March 16, The US Chamber of Congress reported that the average of estimates of decline in the US GDP for the second quarter was 12.4%. They went on to state:



> If the outbreak is fully contained and the economy opened up during the second quarter, the third and fourth quarter growth figures should be as eye-catchingly large as the second quarter will be concerning.


Is that roughly "absolutely devastating"? Clearly the effect of sheltering in place would strongly effect the economy, but there was and is significant uncertainty on the magnitude and effects of the downturn.

Most estimates I saw suggested between 1-2 million deaths in the US due to Covid-19 without NPIs. Assuming ~$US 9 million/death that would be an economic effect of ~$US 9-18 trillion. In addition there would be significant but uncertain economic decline. I don't know which policy (strict NPIs, keeping the US open, or something in between) would have led to the best outcomes. I'm also extremely skeptical of those who believe the answer is obvious.



Varick said:


> There are simple economic metrics such as every 1% increase in unemployment is equivalent to approx 10,000 deaths (these numbers are relevant to the USA.


This is actually really interesting. It appears to be true that unemployment is associated with higher mortality, but it also seems to be true that recessions are associated with lower mortality (see here, here, here, here, and here). In fact, this study estimated that during the Great Recession, a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years.

Apparently, while suicides increase during recessions, outcomes such as accidents, homicides, and heart attacks decrease. In addition environmental pollution decreases which may reduce mortality. Further, this recession may be unusual in that the recovery could be extremely fast. No one suggests that recessions are a good thing because there are obvious negative outcomes associated with them, but the overall effect is uncertain.



Varick said:


> I get my information from Doctors and people who are at the forefront of this thing who AREN'T spokesmen/women for particular media outlet(s) and/or politicians.


I simply don't believe that the many dozens of scientists and doctors I've listened to on media outlets are all paid huge sums of money to tarnish their names within the medical profession. I don't believe in conspiracy theories that are that unreasonable.



Varick said:


> People like Dr. Daniel Erikson and his partner who are emergency physicians in Bakersfield, CA who's Youtube video was taken down because the didn't tow the correct main stream line of thinking and gave their professional OPINION from what they've seen and done from hands on experience.


As far as I can tell, doctors seem to believe that Erikson and his partner's methodology was flawed and the results contained serious statistical errors. I tend to believe peer reviewed journal articles but view youtube videos with much greater skepticism.



Varick said:


> Check out this youtube video before they take it down:
> 
> 
> 
> A lot there in 25 or so minutes. These are only a handful of sources I listen to, read, or watch.


This one is a bit embarrassing. Researchers could not replicate Dr. Mikovits's results from her 2009 Science paper. In fact the authors issued a partial retraction, and Science ultimately retracted the paper. She says that Dr. Fauci directed the coverup and everybody else was paid off big time. This episode sounds similar to another anti-vaccine researcher, Dr. Andrew Wakefield, whose paper was also retracted although his was due to intentional fraud rather than likely contamination of results.

The scientific community is not supporting Erikson, Mikovits, and Wakefield due to a coverup but rather because scientists care deeply about truth. When huge multinational corporations along with many politicians tried to suppress certain climate change scientists's results, the scientific community showed enormous support of those climate scientists. No amount of money could silence the community.

I don't believe Mikovits's claim that xenotropic murine leukemia virus (XMRV) is associated with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.

I don't believe that vaccines cause autism.

I don't believe that scientists created cold fusion in their lab.

I don't believe the Roswell crash had anything to do with aliens.

I'm simply not a fan of conspiracy theories.


----------



## arpeggio

*The Value of Life*

I can only speak for what is happening here in the United States.

What bothers me is the lives of many of us are at risk. I have already lost one friend to the disease.

My mother is in her nineties. Her mind is still active and she is very healthy for her age. She still has a heart condition and if she contracts the virus will probably die. I have seen some make the observation that she will probably die anyway. What a heartless attitude. My mother deserves to live and it is wrong to rationalize her possible death away. My mother lives in North Carolina. I have accepted the possibility I will never see her again and it burdens my heart. For mothers day I sent her a Blue Ray of _La Traviata_. She received it today and we spent 30 minutes on the phone talking about it.

My wife and I are in our seventies. As a cancer survivor I am at risk but my wife is also at risk. Yet as far as Trump and his supporters are concerned they are willing to sacrifice our lives so Trump can get reelected. How many Americans have to die, working in plants or movie theater or whatever so Trump can get reelected or his cronies make a profit.

Trumps supporters believe that these restrictions violate their freedoms. No one should not have to unnecessarily die from this even if they are foolish enough not to wear a mask and put themselves at risk. But their irresponsible beliefs are threatening all of our lives.

We are in a life and death situation not some silly rhetorical exercise.

I wish I had the ability to express my concerns better than this


----------



## Art Rock

Let's insert some good news: the 102 years old mother of our neighbors had Corona, but has been cured without clear remaining side effect. Amazing.


----------



## mrdoc

Art Rock said:


> Let's insert some good news: the 102 years old mother of our neighbors had Corona, but has been cured without clear remaining side effect. Amazing.


She used Wing of Bat, Tongue of Newt mixed with blood of Toad haly efing looyaa...


----------



## Room2201974

mrdoc said:


> She used Wing of Bat, Tongue of Newt mixed with blood of Toad haly efing looyaa...


Wow, how strange. Tongue of Newt usually only shows up at death beds.


----------



## Bigbang

Varick said:


> We knew that shutting down almost everything, ie: sheltering in place, would have an absolutely devastating effect on the economy. Everyone knew this. Even I knew this. What we didn't know is how bad this virus would be.
> 
> There are simple economic metrics such as every 1% increase in unemployment is equivalent to approx 10,000 deaths (these numbers are relevant to the USA. I can't speak on specific numbers for any other country, but the same rule applies in general). This is due to suicides, increase in mental and emotional health risks such as increase in depression, substance abuse, stress, etc. We went from the lowest unemployment in US recorded history 3 months ago to the highest in recorded history. The full effects of this haven't even begun to manifest yet.
> 
> We know enough and knew enough pattern recognition at least 3 weeks ago (many places longer) where risk was high (a handful of places) and was not high (everywhere else).
> 
> I get my information from Doctors and people who are at the forefront of this thing who AREN'T spokesmen/women for particular media outlet(s) and/or politicians. People like Dr. Daniel Erikson and his partner who are emergency physicians in Bakersfield, CA who's Youtube video was taken down because the didn't tow the correct main stream line of thinking and gave their professional OPINION from what they've seen and done from hands on experience. Of what works and doesn't work. People like Dr. Zelenko from Lennox Hill Hospital in NYC, Dr. David Price (who may have seen and treated more Covid patients than any other Dr in the US) from NY Presbyterian, Weill Cornell Hospital in NYC. Just to name a few.
> 
> I'm in 2-4 Hospitals every day working in NYC, NJ, & Westchester & Rockland Counties (NY). I talk to many doctors and nurses who are dealing with this stuff more than anyone.
> 
> Check out this youtube video before they take it down:
> 
> 
> 
> A lot there in 25 or so minutes. These are only a handful of sources I listen to, read, or watch.
> 
> Old sayings and aphorisms are often infused with great wisdom that was gained through a lot of time and experience. Wisdom that often far exceeds yours or my experiences. You may want to become a bigger fan. There is a lot to learn from them.
> 
> V


-------------------------------------------


----------



## Bigbang

Varick said:


> We knew that shutting down almost everything, ie: sheltering in place, would have an absolutely devastating effect on the economy. Everyone knew this. Even I knew this. What we didn't know is how bad this virus would be.
> 
> There are simple economic metrics such as every 1% increase in unemployment is equivalent to approx 10,000 deaths (these numbers are relevant to the USA. I can't speak on specific numbers for any other country, but the same rule applies in general). This is due to suicides, increase in mental and emotional health risks such as increase in depression, substance abuse, stress, etc. We went from the lowest unemployment in US recorded history 3 months ago to the highest in recorded history. The full effects of this haven't even begun to manifest yet.
> 
> We know enough and knew enough pattern recognition at least 3 weeks ago (many places longer) where risk was high (a handful of places) and was not high (everywhere else).
> 
> I get my information from Doctors and people who are at the forefront of this thing who AREN'T spokesmen/women for particular media outlet(s) and/or politicians. People like Dr. Daniel Erikson and his partner who are emergency physicians in Bakersfield, CA who's Youtube video was taken down because the didn't tow the correct main stream line of thinking and gave their professional OPINION from what they've seen and done from hands on experience. Of what works and doesn't work. People like Dr. Zelenko from Lennox Hill Hospital in NYC, Dr. David Price (who may have seen and treated more Covid patients than any other Dr in the US) from NY Presbyterian, Weill Cornell Hospital in NYC. Just to name a few.
> 
> I'm in 2-4 Hospitals every day working in NYC, NJ, & Westchester & Rockland Counties (NY). I talk to many doctors and nurses who are dealing with this stuff more than anyone.
> 
> Check out this youtube video before they take it down:
> 
> 
> 
> A lot there in 25 or so minutes. These are only a handful of sources I listen to, read, or watch.
> 
> Old sayings and aphorisms are often infused with great wisdom that was gained through a lot of time and experience. Wisdom that often far exceeds yours or my experiences. You may want to become a bigger fan. There is a lot to learn from them.
> 
> V


Regarding the link you pasted:

Well, this explains your distrust. Another conspiracy theory to compete with hundreds of others. Truth is, we have to have a free mind, liberated from obligations to any cause. So if able to think then when you look at news sources you cannot be swayed as you will be able to discern "how" to "think" but instead you are basically doing the "us" vs "them". This gets old real fast. BTW, the one doctor from NYC (I actually thought he was a fake when I saw a video several weeks ago) is being promoted on an agenda thing. And the evidence is clear enough in spite of the doctor acting like this is not what is said to be about--whatever that means . Too stupid for me to even digest.


----------



## eljr

Varick said:


> We knew that shutting down almost everything, ie: sheltering in place, would have an absolutely devastating effect on the economy. Everyone knew this. Even I knew this. What we didn't know is how bad this virus would be.
> 
> There are simple economic metrics such as every 1% increase in unemployment is equivalent to approx 10,000 deaths (these numbers are relevant to the USA. I can't speak on specific numbers for any other country, but the same rule applies in general). This is due to suicides, increase in mental and emotional health risks such as increase in depression, substance abuse, stress, etc. We went from the lowest unemployment in US recorded history 3 months ago to the highest in recorded history. The full effects of this haven't even begun to manifest yet.
> 
> We know enough and knew enough pattern recognition at least 3 weeks ago (many places longer) where risk was high (a handful of places) and was not high (everywhere else).
> 
> I get my information from Doctors and people who are at the forefront of this thing who AREN'T spokesmen/women for particular media outlet(s) and/or politicians. People like Dr. Daniel Erikson and his partner who are emergency physicians in Bakersfield, CA who's Youtube video was taken down because the didn't tow the correct main stream line of thinking and gave their professional OPINION from what they've seen and done from hands on experience. Of what works and doesn't work. People like Dr. Zelenko from Lennox Hill Hospital in NYC, Dr. David Price (who may have seen and treated more Covid patients than any other Dr in the US) from NY Presbyterian, Weill Cornell Hospital in NYC. Just to name a few.
> 
> I'm in 2-4 Hospitals every day working in NYC, NJ, & Westchester & Rockland Counties (NY). I talk to many doctors and nurses who are dealing with this stuff more than anyone.
> 
> Check out this youtube video before they take it down:
> 
> 
> 
> A lot there in 25 or so minutes. These are only a handful of sources I listen to, read, or watch.
> 
> Old sayings and aphorisms are often infused with great wisdom that was gained through a lot of time and experience. Wisdom that often far exceeds yours or my experiences. You may want to become a bigger fan. There is a lot to learn from them.
> 
> V


by the 36th second of this video I knew I had enough


----------



## eljr

KenOC said:


> *My worry as well*. Three trillion so far and counting… The new Greece?
> -------------------------------------------------
> A top Republican known for his conservative fiscal policy says he is against the U.S. government spending money it cannot repay to bail out those negatively affected by the coronavirus.
> 
> Speaking to a masked C-SPAN reporter, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul reiterated his position on spending, saying he's against borrowing from China to fund another round of economic relief for small businesses underwater because of the coronavirus.
> 
> "As far as any more relief, though, there is no money," Paul said. "There's no rainy day fund. There's no savings. I mean, there really is no money. It means we'd have to borrow money from China and other countries, and I'm not for spending more money that we don't have."


so then let new york keeps it's own money and let kentucky fend for itself

sounds good to me

btw, rand is a worm


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Art Rock said:


> Let's insert some good news: the 102 years old mother of our neighbors had Corona, but has been cured without clear remaining side effect. Amazing.


Did she have a lime in it?

Sorry, couldn't resist.


----------



## eljr

science said:


> Eventually everyone either died or developed immunity.
> 
> I don't know whether it's right to say that it's extinct, but if scientists feared it was likely to return they'd include it in the annual flu shot that most people get to immunize us and (ideally) give us herd immunity.
> 
> Incidentally, that's why getting an annual flu shot is important. Scientists around the world are looking for new versions of the flu, and when they see one that might be a problem they get it into the flu shot for that season. But some people (such as people with compromised immune system) cannot get the vaccination, so the rest of need to do so, even if we believe the flu would not kill us. The point is not only to protect ourselves but to create herd immunity in order to protect the people who can't get the shot and would be at risk of dying from the flu.
> 
> In the same way, the people who refuse to vaccinate their healthy children for measles are actually putting other people's children in danger.
> 
> Anyway. Hopefully herd stupidity is not more powerful than herd immunity.


try to get a Trumpet to care about another, good luck with that.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> so then let new york keeps it's own money and let kentucky fend for itself
> 
> sounds good to me
> 
> btw, rand is a worm


See, if we go state by state like that, then how about we turn down the liberal states who are requesting bailouts because they were already in the crapper financially before this coronavirus hit.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> See, if we go state by state like that, then how about we turn down the liberal states who are requesting bailouts because they were already in the crapper financially before this coronavirus hit.


my post was in response to what you mention

as long as Rand does not want to pay for the costs of the epidemic in NY, let NY stop paying all of Kentucky's bills and NY can pay it themselves.

NY was in very good financial condition before the virus. They were not in the "crapper" already.

Let's face it, red states like living on a one way street and, the parasites that they are, will use the host till it dies.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

On Monday, NYC had 711 new diagnosed cases of coronavirus, which was higher than the Wednesday case totals for Alaska, Hawaii, Vermont, Wyoming, Maine, Idaho, West Virginia, North and South Dakota, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina and New Hampshire combined. Additionally, NYC's case total is higher than those for Kentucky, Arkansas, Utah, New Mexico, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Rhode Island, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Washington, Wisconsin, Kansas, Connecticut, Arizona, Louisiana, Delaware, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, D.C. and Michigan. Only 12 states have higher case totals than this one city. 

But things at least seem to be looking up for NYC.

At any rate, I think more states should now look at phased reopenings given what we are seeing.


----------



## Flamme

Although it was announced that public transport will be opened in ''phases'', first 4 workers, then studnets, then retired, suddenly they said it will be opened 4 every1 from 2omorrow...So many changes, so little time. I will cycle still.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> my post was in response to what you mention
> 
> as long as Rand does not want to pay for the costs of the epidemic in NY, let NY stop paying all of Kentucky's bills and NY can pay it themselves.
> 
> NY was in very good financial condition before the virus. They were not in the "crapper" already.
> 
> Let's face it, red states like living on a one way street and, the parasites that they are, will use the host till it dies.


Some of the biggest borrowers from the federal government are not, in fact, red states. And everybody pays their federal taxes, so what is the point?


----------



## philoctetes

mmsbls said:


> True, but "absolutely devastating" is a very poorly defined economic term. On March 16, The US Chamber of Congress reported that the average of estimates of decline in the US GDP for the second quarter was 12.4%. They went on to state:
> 
> Is that roughly "absolutely devastating"? Clearly the effect of sheltering in place would strongly effect the economy, but there was and is significant uncertainty on the magnitude and effects of the downturn.
> 
> Most estimates I saw suggested between 1-2 million deaths in the US due to Covid-19 without NPIs. Assuming ~$US 9 million/death that would be an economic effect of ~$US 9-18 trillion. In addition there would be significant but uncertain economic decline. I don't know which policy (strict NPIs, keeping the US open, or something in between) would have led to the best outcomes. I'm also extremely skeptical of those who believe the answer is obvious.
> 
> This is actually really interesting. It appears to be true that unemployment is associated with higher mortality, but it also seems to be true that recessions are associated with lower mortality (see here, here, here, here, and here). In fact, this study estimated that during the Great Recession, a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years.
> 
> Apparently, while suicides increase during recessions, outcomes such as accidents, homicides, and heart attacks decrease. In addition environmental pollution decreases which may reduce mortality. Further, this recession may be unusual in that the recovery could be extremely fast. No one suggests that recessions are a good thing because there are obvious negative outcomes associated with them, but the overall effect is uncertain.
> 
> I simply don't believe that the many dozens of scientists and doctors I've listened to on media outlets are all paid huge sums of money to tarnish their names within the medical profession. I don't believe in conspiracy theories that are that unreasonable.
> 
> As far as I can tell, doctors seem to believe that Erikson and his partner's methodology was flawed and the results contained serious statistical errors. I tend to believe peer reviewed journal articles but view youtube videos with much greater skepticism.
> 
> This one is a bit embarrassing. Researchers could not replicate Dr. Mikovits's results from her 2009 Science paper. In fact the authors issued a partial retraction, and Science ultimately retracted the paper. She says that Dr. Fauci directed the coverup and everybody else was paid off big time. This episode sounds similar to another anti-vaccine researcher, Dr. Andrew Wakefield, whose paper was also retracted although his was due to intentional fraud rather than likely contamination of results.
> 
> The scientific community is not supporting Erikson, Mikovits, and Wakefield due to a coverup but rather because scientists care deeply about truth. When huge multinational corporations along with many politicians tried to suppress certain climate change scientists's results, the scientific community showed enormous support of those climate scientists. No amount of money could silence the community.
> 
> I don't believe Mikovits's claim that xenotropic murine leukemia virus (XMRV) is associated with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.
> 
> I don't believe that vaccines cause autism.
> 
> I don't believe that scientists created cold fusion in their lab.
> 
> I don't believe the Roswell crash had anything to do with aliens.
> 
> I'm simply not a fan of conspiracy theories.


you forgot 9/11, the Dead Kennedys, MKUltra, Princess Di, and quite a few others... all explained or debunked by now of course...


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Some of the biggest borrowers from the federal government are not, in fact, red states. And everybody pays their federal taxes, so what is the point?


some states are welfare states and you know my point

you may be antagonistic but you are not stupid


----------



## Flamme

I dont really get it how allegedly all RED states leach and mooch from blue 1s??? Cant believe they have no products or strong economy 2 support them...


----------



## eljr

Flamme said:


> I dont really get it how allegedly all RED states leach and mooch from blue 1s??? Cant believe they have no products or strong economy 2 support them...


*generally speaking*, the blue states support the red states because much more economic might resides in the blue states

monies are sent to Washington and from there it goes to the less industrious, the red states

this is why the red states are called welfare states


----------



## Room2201974

Rand Paul.......any doctor who doesn't have the sense to wear a mask now, not for himself but for others, has violated the Hippocratic Oath! 

Like Dr. Oz, and Dr. Phil, Dr. Paul has lost any shread of common decency, traded out for demagoguery.....which apparently pays better.


----------



## Flamme

eljr said:


> *generally speaking*, *the blue states support the red states because much more economic might resides in the blue states*
> 
> monies are sent to Washington and from there it goes to the less industrious, the red states
> 
> this is why the red states are called welfare states


I get that but WHY? Why are ''red states'' so unsuccessful...I dont get it...Only because of industry...There must be at least few ''red states''' that are above or on the same level as blues...


----------



## philoctetes

Yesterday I mentioned my living situation near a river park in Sonoma County which is now open only to foot and bike traffic... since the onset of gross overtourism, visitors from everywhere, enabled by tour buses from the Bay Area, have literally stolen the beach and all the parking away from locals... it's a tiny beach and a tiny street and has no capacity for the hundreds of visitors that were coming daily last few years... in a way the CV has given me an advantage and some peace that I've enjoyed up to now... keeping most visitors away...

So it's a few days before Mother's Day, and who do I see parked in front of my house yesterday... a man I know from NYC and a woman who lives in Santa Cruz... father and daughter... he is a district DA in Manhattan and lives on S Central Park Avenue, she is an attorney and my ex-GF from 20 years ago, neither of whom I have any desire to ever see again.. but there they are, classic die-hard Eastern liberal law makers,one coming straight from the hottest spot in the US, crossing state and county lines to meet for Mother's Day where they are not welcome and legally prohibited to do so... and I'm sure they know it... 

I wish I had taken photos... I would send them to the NYT with identification... I am sooo disgusted with these people....


----------



## Open Book

science said:


> Eventually everyone either died or developed immunity.
> 
> I don't know whether it's right to say that it's extinct, but if scientists feared it was likely to return they'd include it in the annual flu shot that most people get to immunize us and (ideally) give us herd immunity.
> 
> Incidentally, that's why getting an annual flu shot is important. Scientists around the world are looking for new versions of the flu, and when they see one that might be a problem they get it into the flu shot for that season. But some people (such as people with compromised immune system) cannot get the vaccination, so the rest of need to do so, even if we believe the flu would not kill us. The point is not only to protect ourselves but to create herd immunity in order to protect the people who can't get the shot and would be at risk of dying from the flu.
> 
> In the same way, the people who refuse to vaccinate their healthy children for measles are actually putting other people's children in danger.
> 
> Anyway. Hopefully herd stupidity is not more powerful than herd immunity.


Look at the cost of herd immunity with Spanish Flu. 50-100 million people died worldwide. Herd immunity is a costly savior. It probably mostly means people most susceptible died out and their genetic "defects" that made them vulnerable were removed from the population. Evolution at work. I'm not comforted by the goal of herd immunity.

Probably the Spanish Flu was no more like the common flu than Covid-19 is. A vaccine may not be possible.

I wonder whether species commonly go extinct from viruses. Maybe it wasn't an astrological phenomenon or a volcanic eruption that killed the dinosaurs but something biological.

How did people live during these past epidemics? Weren't their economies disrupted because they would be too afraid to go to work if it meant exposure to other people the virus (I think they were aware that it spreads from person to person)?


----------



## eljr

Flamme said:


> I get that but WHY? Why are ''red states'' so unsuccessful...I dont get it...Only because of industry...There must be at least few ''red states''' that are above or on the same level as blues...


yes, TX is an economic power for example. But as I said, generally speaking red is welfare.

don't forget, in the USA we have a terrible system of two Senators from every state so red states are way over represented in Congress. This means more monies get funneled to red states, the home states of the senators.


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> Yesterday I mentioned my living situation near a river park in Sonoma County which is now open only to foot and bike traffic... since the onset of gross overtourism, visitors from everywhere, enabled by tour buses from the Bay Area, have literally stolen the beach and all the parking away from locals... it's a tiny beach and a tiny street and has no capacity for the hundreds of visitors that were coming daily last few years... in a way the CV has given me an advantage and some peace that I've enjoyed up to now... keeping most visitors away...
> 
> So it's a few days before Mother's Day, and who do I see parked in front of my house yesterday... a man I know from NYC and a woman who lives in Santa Cruz... father and daughter... he is a district DA in Manhattan and lives on S Central Park Avenue, she is an attorney and my ex-GF from 20 years ago, neither of whom I have any desire to ever see again.. but there they are, classic die-hard Eastern liberal law makers,one coming straight from the hottest spot in the US, crossing state and county lines to meet for Mother's Day where they are not welcome and legally prohibited to do so... and I'm sure they know it...
> 
> I wish I had taken photos... I would send them to the NYT with identification... I am sooo disgusted with these people....


Stolen from locals?

Why on earth are local more entitled to beach than others?


----------



## DaveM

A personal assistant/valet to Trump has tested positive for Clovid-19. Uh-oh! Apparently, personal assistants in the West Wing don’t wear masks.


----------



## DaveM

arpeggio said:


> I can only speak for what is happening here in the United States.
> 
> What bothers me is the lives of many of us are at risk. I have already lost one friend to the disease.
> 
> My mother is in her nineties. Her mind is still active and she is very healthy for her age. She still has a heart condition and if she contracts the virus will probably die. I have seen some make the observation that she will probably die anyway. What a heartless attitude. My mother deserves to live and it is wrong to rationalize her possible death away. My mother lives in North Carolina. I have accepted the possibility I will never see her again and it burdens my heart. For mothers day I sent her a Blue Ray of _La Traviata_. She received it today and we spent 30 minutes on the phone talking about it.
> 
> My wife and I are in our seventies. As a cancer survivor I am at risk but my wife is also at risk. Yet as far as Trump and his supporters are concerned they are willing to sacrifice our lives so Trump can get reelected. How many Americans have to die, working in plants or movie theater or whatever so Trump can get reelected or his cronies make a profit.
> 
> Trumps supporters believe that these restrictions violate their freedoms. No one should have to unnecessarily die from this even if they are foolish enough not to wear a mask and put themselves at risk. But their irresponsible beliefs are threatening all of our lives.
> 
> We are in a life and death situation not some silly rhetorical exercise.
> 
> I wish I had the ability to express my concerns better than this


I think you expressed it pretty well!


----------



## Open Book

arpeggio said:


> I can only speak for what is happening here in the United States.
> 
> What bothers me is the lives of many of us are at risk. I have already lost one friend to the disease.
> 
> My mother is in her nineties. Her mind is still active and she is very healthy for her age. She still has a heart condition and if she contracts the virus will probably die. I have seen some make the observation that she will probably die anyway. What a heartless attitude. My mother deserves to live and it is wrong to rationalize her possible death away. My mother lives in North Carolina. I have accepted the possibility I will never see her again and it burdens my heart. For mothers day I sent her a Blue Ray of _La Traviata_. She received it today and we spent 30 minutes on the phone talking about it.
> 
> My wife and I are in our seventies. As a cancer survivor I am at risk but my wife is also at risk. Yet as far as Trump and his supporters are concerned they are willing to sacrifice our lives so Trump can get reelected. How many Americans have to die, working in plants or movie theater or whatever so Trump can get reelected or his cronies make a profit.
> 
> Trumps supporters believe that these restrictions violate their freedoms. No one should have to unnecessarily die from this even if they are foolish enough not to wear a mask and put themselves at risk. But their irresponsible beliefs are threatening all of our lives.
> 
> We are in a life and death situation not some silly rhetorical exercise.
> 
> I wish I had the ability to express my concerns better than this


I lost someone, too, a few weeks ago. A relative in a nursing home in his nineties. People in nursing homes have no control over their lives and can't isolate themselves, they need personal care. Advanced age makes them vulnerable. I'm sad that he is gone and that I was unable to visit him. He got sick, went on a ventilator after ten days, and predictably was gone a few days later. I had high hopes because he was pretty healthy.

People who are vulnerable by age or pre-existing condition will have to quarantine themselves as much as possible. There's a political push going on to get life back to normal before we are ready for it. Especially on the part of younger, more vigorous people. Older, weaker people are expendable to them. Everyone thinks like this in a way, we wonder what our risk is and say, well, I'm only 60, I'm not 90, I'm still fairly young. Watch out for yourselves and take precautions even if everyone else is resuming normal life.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> *generally speaking*, the blue states support the red states because much more economic might resides in the blue states
> 
> monies are sent to Washington and from there it goes to the less industrious, the red states
> 
> this is why the red states are called welfare states


Federal aid by state 2020:


> The ten states with the highest total federal funding are:
> 
> 1. California ($43.61 billion)
> 2. Texas ($26.90 billion)
> 3. Florida ($23.77 billion)
> 4. New York ($22.06 billion)
> 5. Virginia ($17.68 billion)
> 6. Pennsylvania ($15.58 billion)
> 7. Illinois ($13.18 billion)
> 8. Ohio ($12.57 billion)
> 9. North Carolina ($11.31 billion)
> 10. Michigan ($10.84 billion)


----------



## philoctetes

eljr said:


> Stolen from locals?
> 
> Why on earth are local more entitled to beach than others?


It's the violators who are acting entitled, but you missed that huh? Just tell your NYC friends to stay in NYC, m-k?

While you're at it, compare the amount of public land in NY to CA... even by %... access to this park at my house is free...

The woman in my story actually lives at a beach herself, at the ocean... but travelled 200 miles to come here... her dad 2000... for pleasure... so you still not getting the point?

I have to deal with this every day through Mother's Day... and beyond... watching violators come to my house while I patiently wait for restrictions to lift so I can also go where I wish... which is away from here when your rude obnoxious visitors crush our hood all summer... trying to have permit parking instituted ASAP... if that doesn't happen I'll be selling my house... a sure sign of feeling entitled huh? it's like living in Eraserhead when I can't leave my house without going through gauntlets of zombies...

Memorial Day, if the temp is high, will be even worse and will make southern cal beaches look uncongested...

Yew Norkers ... seem to have the biggest problems understanding they are not the center of the Universe... now go back to blaming Trump for the way you all are acting...


----------



## Bigbang

Room2201974 said:


> Rand Paul.......any doctor who doesn't have the sense to wear a mask now, not for himself but for others, has violated the Hippocratic Oath!
> 
> Like Dr. Oz, and Dr. Phil, Dr. Paul has lost any shread of common decency, traded out for demagoguery.....which apparently pays better.


Shh! Be quiet! If a person like the President of the United States thinks it is Ok for him to NOT wear a mask, so be it. If he gets coronavirus, well, he brought it on himself. No worries though because there are back up plans should the President need to call in sick...........Pence will step up. Uh oh, who is the the next person in charge since Pence thinks he is protected by the unseen hand? Have they been wearing a face mask?

And how did Biden get so lucky? He gets to rest during an election cycle at home mostly. This can literally take it out of you campaigning not stop so he has to be careful. This could get real interesting.............


----------



## philoctetes

Open Book said:


> I lost someone, too, a few weeks ago. A relative in a nursing home in his nineties. People in nursing homes have no control over their lives and can't isolate themselves, they need personal care. Advanced age makes them vulnerable. I'm sad that he is gone and that I was unable to visit him. He got sick, went on a ventilator after ten days, and predictably was gone a few days later. I had high hopes because he was pretty healthy.
> 
> People who are vulnerable by age or pre-existing condition will have to quarantine themselves as much as possible. There's a political push going on to get life back to normal before we are ready for it. Especially on the part of younger, more vigorous people. Older, weaker people are expendable to them. Everyone thinks like this in a way, we wonder what our risk is and say, well, I'm only 60, I'm not 90, I'm still fairly young. Watch out for yourselves and take precautions even if everyone else is resuming normal life.


I recall I wrangled you over your car trips so I'm sorry to hear this... I'm also not confident about rushing back to normal to soon...


----------



## philoctetes

Back to the math... the knee-jerkers won't understand it... but the message is STAY HOME..

Here is what I posted on February 3:

How serious is the new coronavirus?

I'm seeing growth estimates of 20% per day.

(1.2)^38 ~ 10^3

10 billion in 4 months

**********************************************************************

OK it hasn't been quite that fast but as the data settles we have seen over a million cases in 3 months, just in the US... which exponentially projects to a million million in 3 more months... there aren't that many people on the planet...

If you live in a densely populated area, STAY HOME... and if you don't believe the math, you may be a "conspiracy theorist"...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

New story out today in the New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

It looks like most of the coronavirus in the U.S. was seeded from NYC - apparently, in addition to shutting down travel from China and Western Europe, we should have also shut down travel from NYC. Even on the West Coast, most of the virus tested is most closely related to the dominant strains in NYC, and not Washington State.


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> New story out today in the New York Times:
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
> 
> It looks like most of the coronavirus in the U.S. was seeded from NYC - apparently, in addition to shutting down travel from China and Western Europe, we should have also shut down travel from NYC. Even on the West Coast, most of the virus tested is most closely related to the dominant strains in NYC, and not Washington State.


It wasn't officially detected in NYC first, though. I thought there were a bunch of cases upstate initially.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> It wasn't officially detected in NYC first, though. I thought there were a bunch of cases upstate initially.


Still likely originated in NYC. As the story says, the strain that initially erupted in Washington state, while that in NYC originated in Europe. The NYC strain spread across the entire country like wildfire, even to be the dominant one over on the West Coast (it or mutations of it).

Were Connecticut and Rhode Island now, in hindsight, really so unreasonable in trying to shut out people from New York?

Going forward, if/when we have another pandemic, do we need to shut down not only international travel into the country, but major hubs like NYC? Should that be one of the first steps?


----------



## Open Book

philoctetes said:


> Back to the math... the knee-jerkers won't understand it... but the message is STAY HOME..
> 
> Here is what I posted on February 3:
> 
> How serious is the new coronavirus?
> 
> I'm seeing growth estimates of 20% per day.
> 
> (1.2)^38 ~ 10^3
> 
> 10 billion in 4 months
> 
> **********************************************************************
> 
> OK it hasn't been quite that fast but as the data settles we have seen over a million cases in 3 months, just in the US... which exponentially projects to a million million in 3 more months... there aren't that many people on the planet...
> 
> If you live in a densely populated area, STAY HOME... and if you don't believe the math, you may be a "conspiracy theorist"...


Yeah, it's only been a short time that it's been growing even though it seems like an eternity. The days pass so slowly when you stay at home. A lot of people just can't take the lack of socialization let alone fearing for their livelihoods. What will things be like in a few months? There's really no way to stop it now. Whatever happens will become the new normal.


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Still likely originated in NYC. As the story says, the strain that initially erupted in Washington state, while that in NYC originated in Europe. The NYC strain spread across the entire country like wildfire, even to be the dominant one over on the West Coast (it or mutations of it).
> 
> Were Connecticut and Rhode Island now, in hindsight, really so unreasonable in trying to shut out people from New York?
> 
> Going forward, if/when we have another pandemic, do we need to shut down not only international travel into the country, but major hubs like NYC? Should that be one of the first steps?


Yeah we should shut down big urban areas but is it possible? What about essential freight going from one area of the country to another? We can't bring ourselves to do certain things unless we are really pushed, and then it can be too late.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

An interesting overlap between coronavirus and climate change.

We hear in abstract terms about what we need to do to reduce global warming, what it would take, how the economy would need to be changed, but it is all really too abstract to imagine - until now.

Take a look at this little tidbit from a story over at the BBC:


> "If Covid-19 leads to a drop in emissions of around 5% in 2020, then that is the sort of reduction we need every year until net-zero emissions are reached around 2050," said Glen Peters… from Cicero.


Got that? For the UK to hit net zero emissions by 2050, they need coronavirus-level cuts for the next 30 years. In other words, a massive shutdown of the economy for 30 years. Think less than half a year has been bad? How about 30 years!


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> An interesting overlap between coronavirus and climate change.
> 
> We hear in abstract terms about what we need to do to reduce global warming, what it would take, how the economy would need to be changed, but it is all really too abstract to imagine - until now.
> 
> Take a look at this little tidbit from a story over at the BBC:
> 
> Got that? For the UK to hit net zero emissions by 2050, they need coronavirus-level cuts for the next 30 years. In other words, a massive shutdown of the economy for 30 years. Think less than half a year has been bad? How about 30 years!


I assume you are joking in the last paragraph, but it's hard to tell on the internet.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> I assume you are joking in the last paragraph, but it's hard to tell on the internet.


How did that sound like joking? Cicero is the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. They are saying that to hit the level of emissions cuts by 2050, they need to stay on this course that has been set by the shutdowns related to the coronavirus. To reach those levels has been a massive disruption to the global economy. Extrapolate that out over the next 30 years. How do you interpret what the person from Cicero said?

He's not alone. Politicians like Occasio-Cortez have said similar things, viewing the upside to this pandemic as reducing emissions. We finally have actual real world examples of what it takes to reduce emissions in the amounts that these people are saying we must.


----------



## philoctetes

Open Book said:


> Yeah we should shut down big urban areas but is it possible? What about essential freight going from one area of the country to another? We can't bring ourselves to do certain things unless we are really pushed, and then it can be too late.


freighting is a relatively minor problem is enough risks are mitigated... the view I've built up over the last month that, aside from local parks for locals, reopening public recreation for long distance tourism should be VERY low on our priorities... however the BnB, real estate, and boutique biz could be hurt under those restrictions...

One can see the difference in protestors and motivations from So Cal to Sacramento to Michigan and Texas... OC is where the multimillion $ constituents are most heavy leveraged into tourism and resort homes... who bring in millions of outside visitors a year.. but there are many retirement villages as well... they are more invisible, more forgotten, and have more deaths... many protestors elsewhere are those dealing not with losing their second homes but simply trying to keep food on the table in rural regions where the rules should not be as strict...

Tourism and debt are of course heavy factors for decision makers where I live as well... and have stated their policies will be on the more extreme side of Gavin... we have to much pressure from the Bay Area that is itching to invade... or else we might be able to be loosen up sooner


----------



## EdwardBast

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Still likely originated in NYC. As the story says, the strain that initially erupted in Washington state, while that in NYC originated in Europe. The NYC strain spread across the entire country like wildfire, even to be the dominant one over on the West Coast (it or mutations of it).


A new strain of a virus is only designated when a mutation produces significant changes in virulence or communicability. There is no evidence that the D614G mutation to SARS CoV-2, which affects the shape of its spike protein, has any effect on these parameters. So as yet there is only one strain of the virus. This article has good information on these issues:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/coronavirus-strains-transmissible/611239/



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Were Connecticut and Rhode Island now, in hindsight, really so unreasonable in trying to shut out people from New York?


Reasonable or not it was pointless. Thousands upon thousands of people had already traveled by the time anyone had grasped the problem



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Going forward, if/when we have another pandemic, do we need to shut down not only international travel into the country, but major hubs like NYC? Should that be one of the first steps?


By the time the ban on travel from China was put in place, 40,000 people had already been admitted from China. At that point the ban was political theater and not an effective health measure.


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## philoctetes

hindsight wins every time........................


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## philoctetes

One lesson a few may have picked up here is that if you don't want a hot virus, or any other *plague*, to hit your little world, you don't wait for orders from the Galactic Overlord to close your borders....


----------



## KenOC

Rand Paul says he doesn't wear a mask because he has already had the coronavirus and now can neither catch it again nor transmit it. I'm not sure about the science of that. And of course, proud libertarian that he is, he tends to think that the rules others set don't apply to him.

But that doesn't make his opinions on matters he specializes in wrong. People who dismiss such opinions solely on the basis of political differences aren't thinking very clearly, if at all.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

EdwardBast said:


> A new strain of a virus is only designated when a mutation produces significant changes in virulence or communicability. There is no evidence that the D614G mutation to SARS CoV-2, which affects the shape of its spike protein, has any effect on these parameters. So as yet there is only one strain of the virus. This article has good information on these issues:
> 
> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/coronavirus-strains-transmissible/611239/
> 
> Reasonable or not it was pointless. Thousands upon thousands of people had already traveled by the time anyone had grasped the problem
> 
> By the time the ban on travel from China was put in place, 40,000 people had already been admitted from China. At that point the ban was political theater and not an effective health measure.


My labeling it a strain was imprecise - sorry, not my area of expertise. But they are apparently able to trace origins of virus in different parts of the country based on genetic analyses and virus that originated in NYC (from Europe) dominates what they find throughout the country.


----------



## Flamme

philoctetes said:


> Yesterday I mentioned my living situation near a river park in Sonoma County which is now open only to foot and bike traffic... since the onset of gross overtourism, visitors from everywhere, enabled by tour buses from the Bay Area, have literally stolen the beach and all the parking away from locals... it's a tiny beach and a tiny street and has no capacity for the hundreds of visitors that were coming daily last few years...* in a way the CV has given me an advantage and some peace that I've enjoyed up to now... keeping most visitors away...
> *
> So it's a few days before Mother's Day, and who do I see parked in front of my house yesterday... a man I know from NYC and a woman who lives in Santa Cruz... father and daughter... he is a district DA in Manhattan and lives on S Central Park Avenue, she is an attorney and my ex-GF from 20 years ago, neither of whom I have any desire to ever see again.. but there they are, classic die-hard Eastern liberal law makers,one coming straight from the hottest spot in the US, crossing state and county lines to meet for Mother's Day where they are not welcome and legally prohibited to do so... and I'm sure they know it...
> 
> I wish I had taken photos... I would send them to the NYT with identification... I am sooo disgusted with these people....


Yeah. I 2 enjoyed the peace and quiet, the absence of...Fumes and toxicity...But 2day they started all over again, driving like crazy anmd polluting..


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> How did that sound like joking? Cicero is the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. They are saying that to hit the level of emissions cuts by 2050, they need to stay on this course that has been set by the shutdowns related to the coronavirus. To reach those levels has been a massive disruption to the global economy. Extrapolate that out over the next 30 years. How do you interpret what the person from Cicero said?


I work in the technical area of climate change mitigation and sometimes assume most people know what is being done to counteract the expected effects of climate change. I think you did quote Glen Peters from Cicero correctly, but he was referring to the magnitude of emissions reductions not the actual mechanism (i.e. "a massive shutdown of the economy for 30 years").

Rupert Darwall on the National Review website writes, "Thanks to COVID-19, we have a foretaste of what the IPCC intends. It envisages, for example, the industrial sector cutting its emissions by between 67 and 91 percent by 2050, implying a contraction in industrial output so dramatic as to make the 1930s Great Depression look like a walk in the park, a possibility the IPCC choses to ignore."

I thought no one actually believed that reducing emissions would imply a contraction in industrial or economic output. Everyone I work with assumes economic output continues to increase, and so does the IPCC. I'm more than a bit surprised that someone at National Review would not know this.

Covid-19 has reduced emissions by reducing emission related activity. For example, a major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) is vehicle travel. Covid-19 has vastly reduced driving for both cars and trucks so the total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has gone way down. Sheltering in place both reduces economic activity and VMT so it reduces GDP and GHGs. No one in climate change mitigation wishes or builds scenarios to reduce economic activity in order to reduce emissions.

In my area, on-road vehicles, by far the major effort to reduce emissions is to increase market penetration of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs), and thereby, replace diesel and gasoline vehicles. At the same time we must reduce the carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of fuel) for fuels that are used by ZEVs (electricity and hydrogen).

The scenarios I build assume VMT increases somewhere between 20-45% from now through 2050 for cars or trucks in California. We are working on a project to show a path to zero emissions for vehicles in 2045 in California using mostly ZEVs and renewable fuels. There may be other potential reductions using biofuels, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and modest VMT reduction.

It surprised me that you might think the only way to get reach the IPCC targets would be to shutdown the economy for 30 years. Did you honestly think that all those advocating IPCC goals feel it's OK to shut the economy down for 30 years or even anything remotely like that? 
[/QUOTE]


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> I work in the technical area of climate change mitigation and sometimes assume most people know what is being done to counteract the expected effects of climate change. I think you did quote Glen Peters from Cicero correctly, but he was referring to the magnitude of emissions reductions not the actual mechanism (i.e. "a massive shutdown of the economy for 30 years").
> 
> Rupert Darwall on the National Review website writes, "Thanks to COVID-19, we have a foretaste of what the IPCC intends. It envisages, for example, the industrial sector cutting its emissions by between 67 and 91 percent by 2050, implying a contraction in industrial output so dramatic as to make the 1930s Great Depression look like a walk in the park, a possibility the IPCC choses to ignore."
> 
> I thought no one actually believed that reducing emissions would imply a contraction in industrial or economic output. Everyone I work with assumes economic output continues to increase, and so does the IPCC. I'm more than a bit surprised that someone at National Review would not know this.
> 
> Covid-19 has reduced emissions by reducing emission related activity. For example, a major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) is vehicle travel. Covid-19 has vastly reduced driving for both cars and trucks so the total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has gone way down. Sheltering in place both reduces economic activity and VMT so it reduces GDP and GHGs. No one in climate change mitigation wishes or builds scenarios to reduce economic activity in order to reduce emissions.
> 
> In my area, on-road vehicles, by far the major effort to reduce emissions is to increase market penetration of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs), and thereby, replace diesel and gasoline vehicles. At the same time we must reduce the carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of fuel) for fuels that are used by ZEVs (electricity and hydrogen).
> 
> The scenarios I build assume VMT increases somewhere between 20-45% from now through 2050 for cars or trucks in California. We are working on a project to show a path to zero emissions for vehicles in 2045 in California using mostly ZEVs and renewable fuels. There may be other potential reductions using biofuels, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and modest VMT reduction.
> 
> It surprised me that you might think the only way to get reach the IPCC targets would be to shutdown the economy for 30 years. Did you honestly think that all those advocating IPCC goals feel it's OK to shut the economy down for 30 years or even anything remotely like that?


[/QUOTE]

I know that there has been quite a lot of glee from many on the environmentalist left - I'm not specifically pointing the finger at the IPCC. But I also look at this image from the BBC report:







and I find your scenario hard to believe. Are you telling me that in the next 30 years, not only are we going to get all this wonderful new technology fully up and running, and in mass production, and then replace enough of the existing technology to get down to the Paris Accord targets? That just seems like fanciful thinking. We have drastically reduced our carbon emissions here, based on that chart, and it is taking this massive global shutdown to do it. And even at this rate, it would take all 30 years of this to get to the levels needed to hit Paris Accord targets by 2050. But you are claiming we can do it with new technology that so far isn't up to the task, but it will not only get fully developed, but also widely enough implemented to drop the levels?

Sorry - that seems implausible to me.


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> Whatever happened to the Spanish flu? Is it extinct? From herd immunity? It's not clear from anything I've read so far.


The "Spanish Flu" is an H1N1 novel virus. It is the most common cause of flu.

Other strains of H1N1 are endemic in pigs (swine influenza) and in birds (avian influenza). We had a swine flu pandemic in 2009/10 (H1N1/09 virus) with an estimated 151,700 to 575,400 deaths total in about 20 months.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Federal aid by state 2020:


Your list is so disingenuously a cherrypicking of stats in an attempt to refute the obvious.

Sure New York gets more than Vermont or Arkansas. But New York puts in more than it receives. New York is a "donor" state. They pay more in taxes to the federal government than they receive back in funding for things like Medicaid or education.

So, while NY receives $22.06 billion in federal funding, the _*negative*_ balance $1,792 per capita.

Residents in Connecticut receive just 74 cents back for every $1 they pay in federal taxes.

On the other side, Virginia receives nearly $2 back for every $1 it sends to Washington.


----------



## eljr

pianozach said:


> Your list is so disingenuously a cherrypicking of stats in an attempt to refute the obvious.
> 
> Sure New York gets more than Vermont or Arkansas. But New York puts in more than it receives. New York is a "donor" state. They pay more in taxes to the federal government than they receive back in funding for things like Medicaid or education.
> 
> So, while NY receives $22.06 billion in federal funding, the _*negative*_ balance $1,792 per capita.
> 
> Residents in Connecticut receive just 74 cents back for every $1 they pay in federal taxes.
> 
> On the other side, Virginia receives nearly $2 back for every $1 it sends to Washington.


He knows all this which is why I did not answer him. Hew simply wants to makew posters jump through hoops for his own entertainment.

I tried to turn the cheek to get along with him and this "tactic" is what I got.


----------



## philoctetes

the latest motto from S Central Park Ave... "shelter-at-home is for the little people"


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Were Connecticut and Rhode Island now, in hindsight, really so unreasonable in trying to shut out people from New York?


If it is one country, it was wrong. If it is 50 states, it was correct.

It should have been that New York had a hard lock down not that some Americans were banned from some parts of America.


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> It's the violators who are acting entitled, but you missed that huh? Just tell your NYC friends to stay in NYC, m-k?
> 
> While you're at it, compare the amount of public land in NY to CA... even by %... access to this park at my house is free...
> 
> The woman in my story actually lives at a beach herself, at the ocean... but travelled 200 miles to come here... her dad 2000... for pleasure... so you still not getting the point?
> 
> I have to deal with this every day through Mother's Day... and beyond... watching violators come to my house while I patiently wait for restrictions to lift so I can also go where I wish... which is away from here when your rude obnoxious visitors crush our hood all summer... trying to have permit parking instituted ASAP... if that doesn't happen I'll be selling my house... a sure sign of feeling entitled huh? it's like living in Eraserhead when I can't leave my house without going through gauntlets of zombies...
> 
> Memorial Day, if the temp is high, will be even worse and will make southern cal beaches look uncongested...
> 
> Yew Norkers ... seem to have the biggest problems understanding they are not the center of the Universe... now go back to blaming Trump for the way you all are acting...


so then your problem is with violators whether they be local or not, that is reasonable.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Your list is so disingenuously a cherrypicking of stats in an attempt to refute the obvious.
> 
> Sure New York gets more than Vermont or Arkansas. But New York puts in more than it receives. New York is a "donor" state. They pay more in taxes to the federal government than they receive back in funding for things like Medicaid or education.
> 
> So, while NY receives $22.06 billion in federal funding, the _*negative*_ balance $1,792 per capita.
> 
> Residents in Connecticut receive just 74 cents back for every $1 they pay in federal taxes.
> 
> On the other side, Virginia receives nearly $2 back for every $1 it sends to Washington.


Virginia is a Democrat-controlled state. Democrats hold the governorship, lieutenant governorship, they hold the majority in the lower House of Delegates and the upper Senate, both of their U.S. Senators are Democrats, and 7 of their 11 Congressmen are Democrats.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Virginia is a Democrat-controlled state. Democrats hold the governorship, lieutenant governorship, they hold the majority in the lower House of Delegates and the upper Senate, both of their U.S. Senators are Democrats, and 7 of their 11 Congressmen are Democrats.


we know why they get so much aid, don't we?

it's not because they are a welfare state like Alabama


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> He knows all this which is why I did not answer him. Hew simply wants to makew posters jump through hoops for his own entertainment.
> 
> I tried to turn the cheek to get along with him and this "tactic" is what I got.


Good Lord, but you are a touchy one, aren't you?


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> the latest motto from S Central Park Ave... "shelter-at-home is for the little people"


there is no S Central Park ave, just and fyi,


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> we know why they get so much aid, don't we?
> 
> it's not because they are a welfare state like Alabama


Whether they are getting welfare money or getting lots of government contracts coming their way, is there really much of a difference? It's a Democrat state that gets $2 back for every $1 it sends to Washington.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Good Lord, but you are a touchy one, aren't you?


If you honestly did not know this, I apologize.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Your list is so disingenuously a cherrypicking of stats in an attempt to refute the obvious.
> 
> Sure New York gets more than Vermont or Arkansas. But New York puts in more than it receives. New York is a "donor" state. They pay more in taxes to the federal government than they receive back in funding for things like Medicaid or education.
> 
> So, while NY receives $22.06 billion in federal funding, the _*negative*_ balance $1,792 per capita.
> 
> Residents in Connecticut receive just 74 cents back for every $1 they pay in federal taxes.
> 
> On the other side, Virginia receives nearly $2 back for every $1 it sends to Washington.


I don't see how this constitutes cherrypicking. That list contained red and blue states, and it is exactly what it said it was. And then at the end of your post you make my argument for me - Virginia is a blue state.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> If you honestly did not know this, I apologize.


Did not know what?

I'm not making anybody jump through anything. I don't expect anybody to reply to anything, or to do anything. I post my thoughts and my views and things I find interesting. Sometimes I respond to others. I hold no expectations of what others should do.


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I know that there has been quite a lot of glee from many on the environmentalist left


Pretty much everyone I know on the left is not gleeful but rather very worried.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I find your scenario hard to believe. Are you telling me that in the next 30 years, not only are we going to get all this wonderful new technology fully up and running, and in mass production, and then replace enough of the existing technology to get down to the Paris Accord targets?


No. You said:



> Got that? For the UK to hit net zero emissions by 2050, they need coronavirus-level cuts for the next 30 years. In other words, a massive shutdown of the economy for 30 years.


I explained that there are other ways to meet the IPCC goals that have nothing to do with a massive shutdown of the economy. I discussed one potential pathway for California that some of us are working on to meet the goals. Whether we actually take that path depends on many variables most of which are political.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We have drastically reduced our carbon emissions here, based on that chart, and it is taking this massive global shutdown to do it. And even at this rate, it would take all 30 years of this to get to the levels needed to hit Paris Accord targets by 2050.


You're focusing on the wrong information. I doubt anyone would argue that it would take a huge number of mass murders to reduce the population rather than focus on birth control. Similarly your focus should be on technological change rather than economic shutdowns to lower GHG emissions.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> But you are claiming we can do it with new technology that so far isn't up to the task, but it will not only get fully developed, but also widely enough implemented to drop the levels?
> 
> Sorry - that seems implausible to me.


Technology is not the issue. The necessary technology is understood and commercially available. There are many questions and the path forward is far from simple. Cost is an issue although possibly less than many would think. Society has squandered the last 30 years and not made the progress we could have made to make the goal vastly easier.

I work with many dozens of people including vehicle manufacturers, utilities, regulatory agencies, and independent researchers. I think the overall view is that reaching the target will be very difficult but technically and economically doable. As I mentioned, the biggest obstacles are political.

In all honesty, do you feel you know remotely enough to have a reasonable expectation of whether society can achieve the IPCC goals? I'm pessimistic, but I can discuss many details of the various technologies, policies, costs, and stakeholder views. I believe the largest obstacle to reaching the IPCC targets is political.


----------



## KenOC

mmsbls said:


> ...It surprised me that you might think the only way to get reach the IPCC targets would be to shutdown the economy for 30 years. Did you honestly think that all those advocating IPCC goals feel it's OK to shut the economy down for 30 years or even anything remotely like that?


Regarding global goals for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: I'm really curious about one thing. Sure, I can be a fine fellow and trade in my 8 mpg Toronado for a Prius and feel all proud of myself. But I look around and see that India's population is about to surpass China's. Africa's population is still skyrocketing, as are populations in many Middle Eastern countries, Central America, and so forth.

What about these people, who likely aspire to a standard of living like those of the Western democracies, that will inevitably result in energy-intensive lifestyles? It's likely they can only hope to achieve these lifestyles through technologies that are cheap, not ones that are green. How are they and their futures considered in the calculations of the IPCC?


----------



## mmsbls

KenOC said:


> Regarding global goals for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: I'm really curious about one thing. Sure, I can be a fine fellow and trade in my 8 mpg Toronado for a Prius and feel all proud of myself. But I look around and see that India's population is about to surpass China's. Africa's population is still skyrocketing, as are populations in many Middle Eastern countries, Central America, and so forth.
> 
> What about these people, who likely aspire to a standard of living like those of the Western democracies, that will inevitably result in energy-intensive lifestyles? It's likely they can only hope to achieve these lifestyles through technologies that are cheap, not ones that are green. How are they and their futures considered in the calculations of the IPCC?


Yes, that's a difficult question. The general answer is that many of the technologies I study are expected to be cheaper, and in many ways, superior to conventional technologies. Many I work with project that owning and operating a battery electric vehicle (BEV) in 2030 will be less expensive than owning and operating a conventional car. Further the BEV will be quieter, more responsive (more fun to drive), and environmentally superior both in terms of GHGs and criteria pollutants that produce ozone and particulates.

When looking at all costs including societal ones (climate change, pollution, noise, military protection of oil, etc.), the new technologies will be significantly less costly. The big problem is how to transition to that future. The initial years generally include more expensive costs for thee technologies so there is an increase in spending over maybe 10-15 years before things get cheaper. We don't know the best policies and who should pay the majority of this excess cost.

I expect that richer countries will have to help subsidize poorer countries, and that will cause problems. The US and Europe have contributed much more to the problem than other countries so it's reasonable to suggest that they pick up more of the cost.


----------



## philoctetes

eljr said:


> there is no S Central Park ave, just and fyi,


But you don't know that it's actually Central Park South, do you? And you live there!

During my visits I had to walk through the Helmsley lobby to access my room... where GFs dad lives... the guy I saw yesterday on my street... but that joke is also over your head, isn't it?

Yew Norkers logic has reached mind contortion levels apparently, must be seriously painful...


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Rand Paul says he doesn't wear a mask because he has already had the coronavirus and now can neither catch it again nor transmit it. I'm not sure about the science of that. And of course, proud libertarian that he is, he tends to think that the rules others set don't apply to him.
> 
> But that doesn't make his opinions on matters he specializes in wrong. People who dismiss such opinions solely on the basis of political differences aren't thinking very clearly, if at all.


One thing we know: even if he knew he was infected, he wouldn't be wearing a mask around his neighbor.


----------



## mmsbls

Please refrain from personal comments. I have edited some posts removing inappropriate comments. It's a much more interesting thread without people sniping at each other.


----------



## KenOC

Well, I doubt these countries are going to build their highways and bridges, their new factories, their new airports and perhaps fleets of indigenous airplanes, and so forth, and increase their intake of high-quality protein and variety of other food, without _significantly _increasing emissions. Not in ten years, not in twenty, not in fifty. I can't escape the opinion that to believe otherwise must involve a lot of wishful thinking.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> In all honesty, do you feel you know remotely enough to have a reasonable expectation of whether society can achieve the IPCC goals? I'm pessimistic, but I can discuss many details of the various technologies, policies, costs, and stakeholder views. I believe the largest obstacle to reaching the IPCC targets is *political*.


But what does it mean it is political? That politicians would have to make the choice? Aren't politicians supposed to be tied into the wishes of their constituents? Of course it is a political decision - because that is who would have to pass any legislation. But that doesn't mean that it isn't also tied into all the other things that go into such a decision.

I don't know why people treat costs as such a minimal consideration. If cost was not an issue, we could do any number of things. But cost is an issue.

I make a comfortable living, but I still can't afford a Tesla along with a charging station in my garage (I don't even have the space in my 1-car garage for a charging station).

You mistake the point I was making. We have had a massive braking of the global economy with this coronavirus pandemic, and that has resulted in less emissions. And yet, with as massive as that disruption has been, it is only estimated to be a 5% reduction in emissions this year. What I read in that BBC report is that it would take the equivalent of 30 years of this level of emissions reductions to get to the target values that were agreed upon in the Paris Accords and reduce temperatures by 1.5 degrees. I never said anybody was hoping for more pandemics to reach those goals - but it gives us a realistic look at just how much reduction in emissions people are talking about.

My issue with what you say - and I'm not doubting you know your stuff, or that any of what you say is possible - I just really doubt the probability that we could achieve that same level of reductions, in that same period of time, even were the political will to be there. It would be a massive restructuring of our economy in this country, and I think there would be massive disruptions - there always are any time you change a technology so fundamental. Look how disruptive something like automation has been, or even the information economy to previous systems. And you want to restructure the entire energy sector? How much of just this country alone is run off of non-renewable energy?

I never said your proposal wasn't possible. But in the next 30 years? Color me incredibly skeptical.


----------



## philoctetes

So we're deflecting criticism of New Yorkers violating shelter-at-home orders now eh? 

It's the intentionally disingenuous responses to such criticism that led to the *personal* stuff, and anybody can see that


----------



## DaveM

Bigbang said:


> Shh! Be quiet! If a person like the President of the United States thinks it is Ok for him to NOT wear a mask, so be it. If he gets coronavirus, well, he brought it on himself. No worries though because there are back up plans should the President need to call in sick...........Pence will step up. *Uh oh, who is the the next person in charge* since Pence thinks he is protected by the unseen hand? Have they been wearing a face mask?


Well, that would be one Nancy Pelosi! I can visualize Trump sick in bed taking a turn for the worse when informed that his beloved Nancy is at the helm.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> One thing we know: even if he knew he was infected, he wouldn't be wearing a mask around his neighbor.


Given that his neighbor cost him a chunk of his lung, I'd say turnabout is fair play.


----------



## eljr

philoctetes said:


> So we're deflecting criticism of New Yorkers violating shelter-at-home orders now eh?
> 
> It's the intentionally disingenuous responses to such criticism that led to the *personal* stuff, and anybody can see that


what on earth are you talking about?

Let's do this, God bless you.


----------



## philoctetes

Pelosi wears a mask? Since when?


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I make a comfortable living, but I still can't afford a Tesla along with a charging station in my garage (I don't even have the space in my 1-car garage for a charging station).


And your first thought is a Tesla why? A Chevy Bolt will be affordable and leave you more than enough room.


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I don't see how this constitutes cherrypicking. That list contained red and blue states, and it is exactly what it said it was. And then at the end of your post you make my argument for me - Virginia is a blue state.


It is true that there is a bit of "leveling" going on, where wealthier states subsidize, to some extent, the less wealthy. This is a matter of longstanding public policy. But there are other factors at work as well, such as the locations of major federal facilities like military bases, shipyards, and so forth, that also boost the flows of federal funds to individual states. In this respect Virginia is _huge _(start with the Pentagon...)

"Virginia has the highest defense spending of any state per capita, providing the Commonwealth with around 900,000 jobs. Approximately twelve percent of all U.S. federal procurement money is spent in Virginia, the second-highest amount after California. Many Virginians work for federal agencies in Northern Virginia, which include the Central Intelligence Agency and the Department of Defense, as well as the National Science Foundation, the United States Geological Survey and the United States Patent and Trademark Office." --Wiki


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> Yes, that's a difficult question. The general answer is that many of the technologies I study are expected to be cheaper, and in many ways, superior to conventional technologies. Many I work with project that owning and operating a battery electric vehicle (BEV) in 2030 will be less expensive than owning and operating a conventional car. Further the BEV will be quieter, more responsive (more fun to drive), and environmentally superior both in terms of GHGs and criteria pollutants that produce ozone and particulates.
> 
> When looking at all costs including societal ones (climate change, pollution, noise, military protection of oil, etc.), the new technologies will be significantly less costly. The big problem is how to transition to that future. *The initial years generally include more expensive costs for thee technologies so there is an increase in spending over maybe 10-15 years before things get cheaper. We don't know the best policies and who should pay the majority of this excess cost. *
> 
> I expect that richer countries will have to help subsidize poorer countries, and that will cause problems. The US and Europe have contributed much more to the problem than other countries so it's reasonable to suggest that they pick up more of the cost.


How does our current situation change that calculus? We just jacked up our debt by several trillion, and we now have over 30 million unemployed since the shutdowns started, the federal government is having to prop up not only businesses that can't work, but state governments that are seeing massively reduced tax revenues, and we aren't even done yet. Some places are slowly reopening, but others will likely stay closed for quite some time, and they are talking about a possible resurgence come fall. We are looking at deficits, the likes we haven't seen since WWII. And there is no guarantee that we'll come roaring out of the gates when/if this ends. We may see a recession/depression that engulfs us for some time. I doubt you are going to find much political interest in a massive costly restructuring of the economy any time soon that will require not only spending by the federal government, but also purchasing by individual consumers.


----------



## mmsbls

KenOC said:


> Well, I doubt these countries are going to build their highways and bridges, their new factories, their new airports and perhaps fleets of indigenous airplanes, and so forth, and increase their intake of high-quality protein and variety of other food, without _significantly _increasing emissions. Not in ten years, not in twenty, not in fifty. I can't escape the opinion that to believe otherwise must involve a lot of wishful thinking.


I'm not suggesting that the path is simple, but if new power systems are renewable (solar, wind, etc.), then emissions can be minimal. That's the whole trick. We want developing countries to take a different path to an advanced economy than we did.


----------



## EdwardBast

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My labeling it a strain was imprecise - sorry, not my area of expertise. But they are apparently able to trace origins of virus in different parts of the country based on genetic analyses and virus that originated in NYC (from Europe) dominates what they find throughout the country.


The labeling isn't so important. The point is there is no reason to think the variant from NY is more lethal or contagious than the other. There are a number of reasons why the "G" variant might be more prevalent. Most likely is that major cities on the west coast simply had a faster, better coordinated response. San Francisco and other west coast cities put mitigation measures in place faster than NY, so the "B" variant didn't spread as much.

It should be noted that while the "G" variant seems to have come to the US primarily via European visitors, this doesn't mean it originated there. It could have been brought to Europe from China.


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> But what does it mean it is political? That politicians would have to make the choice? Aren't politicians supposed to be tied into the wishes of their constituents? Of course it is a political decision - because that is who would have to pass any legislation. But that doesn't mean that it isn't also tied into all the other things that go into such a decision.


I just mean mostly that it's not a technology issue. If the US viewed climate change in the same way we view military issues, I suspect there we would simply solve the problem.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I don't know why people treat costs as such a minimal consideration. If cost was not an issue, we could do any number of things. But cost is an issue.


Cost is a huge part of our study. The goal is to reach our target with the lowest cost. When I say lowest cost, I'm including societal costs such as I mentioned in my reply to KenOC.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I make a comfortable living, but I still can't afford a Tesla along with a charging station in my garage (I don't even have the space in my 1-car garage for a charging station).


OK, but as I mentioned many believe that those purchasing cars in 2030 will pay less to own and operate a BEV than a conventional car.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> You mistake the point I was making. We have had a massive braking of the global economy with this coronavirus pandemic, and that has resulted in less emissions. And yet, with as massive as that disruption has been, it is only estimated to be a 5% reduction in emissions this year. What I read in that BBC report is that it would take the equivalent of 30 years of this level of emissions reductions to get to the target values that were agreed upon in the Paris Accords and reduce temperatures by 1.5 degrees. I never said anybody was hoping for more pandemics to reach those goals - but it gives us a realistic look at just how much reduction in emissions people are talking about.


OK.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> My issue with what you say - and I'm not doubting you know your stuff, or that any of what you say is possible - I just really doubt the probability that we could achieve that same level of reductions, in that same period of time, even were the political will to be there. It would be a massive restructuring of our economy in this country, and I think there would be massive disruptions - there always are any time you change a technology so fundamental. Look how disruptive something like automation has been, or even the information economy to previous systems. And you want to restructure the entire energy sector? How much of just this country alone is run off of non-renewable energy?


My understanding is that renewable energy is now the majority of new power installations around the world. Over 1/3 of California's electricity comes from renewable energy and the target is 50% by 2030. Yes, it won't be easy for many places, but I think we can make a lot of progress in this area.



Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I never said your proposal wasn't possible. But in the next 30 years? Color me incredibly skeptical.


As I said, I'm pessimistic as well.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> And your first thought is a Tesla why? A Chevy Bolt will be affordable and leave you more than enough room.


I don't buy Chevys, as a rule. Too many bad experiences over the years. I've wasted enough money on Chevrolet.


----------



## mmsbls

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> How does our current situation change that calculus? We just jacked up our debt by several trillion, and we now have over 30 million unemployed since the shutdowns started, the federal government is having to prop up not only businesses that can't work, but state governments that are seeing massively reduced tax revenues, and we aren't even done yet. Some places are slowly reopening, but others will likely stay closed for quite some time, and they are talking about a possible resurgence come fall. We are looking at deficits, the likes we haven't seen since WWII. And there is no guarantee that we'll come roaring out of the gates when/if this ends. We may see a recession/depression that engulfs us for some time. I doubt you are going to find much political interest in a massive costly restructuring of the economy any time soon that will require not only spending by the federal government, but also purchasing by individual consumers.


Probably true. I do wonder what California will do. They are rather invested in reducing GHGs. The major spending would not come for several years so we'd have to see where things stand at that time.


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Pelosi wears a mask? Since when?










-------------


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

EdwardBast said:


> The labeling isn't so important. The point is there is no reason to think the variant from NY is more lethal or contagious than the other. There are a number of reasons why the "G" variant might be more prevalent. Most likely is that major cities on the west coast simply had a faster, better coordinated response. San Francisco and other west coast cities put mitigation measures in place faster than NY, so the "B" variant didn't spread as much.
> 
> It should be noted that while the "G" variant seems to have come to the US primarily via European visitors, this doesn't mean it originated there. It could have been brought to Europe from China.


Oh, I'm sure it came ultimately from China - just came to NYC through the intermediate of Europe. But I'm skeptical that it isn't more lethal or contagious, else why is it spreading much more broadly? I know there are all kinds of other factors to consider as well, but I'm not going to be surprised if we find out later the variant from New York did have a mutation that made it more contagious.


----------



## KenOC

mmsbls said:


> I'm not suggesting that the path is simple, but if new power systems are renewable (solar, wind, etc.), then emissions can be minimal. That's the whole trick. We want developing countries to take a different path to an advanced economy than we did.


Of course we do, but people in the developing countries may have different opinions. I have spent a good deal of my life in poorer countries and have observed that they have, often, a quite different view of energy/pollution tradeoffs than we do.

For instance, when I was living in upcountry Thailand in the late '60s, water buffalo were a measure of family wealth and were omnipresent. That is because they provided the energy needed to till the land. Of course they produced prodigious amounts of dung, but even that had its uses.

Today you will find no water buffalo in that region outside of zoos. All the work is done by gasoline-powered minitractors that sputter noisily and emit copious air pollution. The local people think this is a wonderful change, not only because it's faster and easier but also because it can get tedious trudging through muddy fields all day looking at the wrong end of a water buffalo.


----------



## Andrew Kenneth

mmsbls said:


> I just mean mostly that it's not a technology issue. If the US viewed climate change in the same way we view military issues, I suspect there we would simply solve the problem. (...)


The Pentagon takes climate change very seriously.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/how-the-pentagon-thinks-about-the-climate-crisis-887832/

I quote : => "While environmentalists point out the ecological issues involved, like habitat destruction and mass extinctions, "the military focuses on the threat to human institutions and communities". The armed forces "see the greatest threats from climate change being state collapse and mass migrations that are going to create chaos around the world" and lead to a lot of dangerous tasks that "they would prefer not to have to undertake."


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmsbls said:


> Probably true. I do wonder what California will do. They are rather invested in reducing GHGs. The major spending would not come for several years so we'd have to see where things stand at that time.


I think that, regardless of how much they may be invested in reducing GHGs, the fact that right now they are needing federal assistance to stay afloat (when they were one of the states doing better in terms of managing their finances), they are going to have to set aside their wish list for a while. As I understand it, they have looming issues with public employee retirement funds that will come crashing down on them.


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## Guest

DaveM said:


> View attachment 135419
> 
> -------------


Don't tempt me with an answer to that one!!!!!!


----------



## KenOC

Here's a very interesting *BBC article* on how people tried to avoid the Spanish flu a century ago. Some of this will look similar to today's advice, and some different.


----------



## KenOC

I don't know how significant *this* is, but I just ordered a year's supply of Vitamin D from Amazon for $15. Can't hurt, right? 
-------------------------------------------------------------
Researchers have discovered a strong correlation between vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates from the novel coronavirus, a new study reveals.

A research team led by Northwestern University analyzed data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States…

The researchers also found a strong correlation between vitamin D levels and cytokine storm, which is a hyperinflammatory condition caused by an overactive immune system.

"Cytokine storm can severely damage lungs and lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome and death in patients… This is what seems to kill a majority of COVID-19 patients, not the destruction of the lungs by the virus itself. It is the complications from the misdirected fire from the immune system."


----------



## science

Almost 30k new known cases in the US yesterday, and over 2000 known deaths. That's one of the 10 or so worst days we've had so far.

Russia another bad day with 11k new known cases.

Brazil had 9k new known cases and 600 known deaths.

India with 3k new known cases (still relatively few in per capita terms).

Here's a chart I noticed for the first time. I'll have to think about what to make of it:









If you go the site, the next chart down shows Europe (not sure how that's defined) as a whole, and the line is almost the same as the US's, and Europe is actually worse on the chart that shows the numbers since 100 cases.

Again, though, many of these numbers are probably too low, and the US in particular probably has more cases and deaths than we know.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> I don't know how significant *this* is, but I just ordered a year's supply of Vitamin D from Amazon for $15. Can't hurt, right?
> -------------------------------------------------------------
> Researchers have discovered a strong correlation between vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates from the novel coronavirus, a new study reveals.
> 
> A research team led by Northwestern University analyzed data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States…
> 
> The researchers also found a strong correlation between vitamin D levels and cytokine storm, which is a hyperinflammatory condition caused by an overactive immune system.
> 
> "Cytokine storm can severely damage lungs and lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome and death in patients… This is what seems to kill a majority of COVID-19 patients, not the destruction of the lungs by the virus itself. It is the complications from the misdirected fire from the immune system."


It's a pretty 'thin' study and the U.S. was apparently not one of the countries that has had traditionally low vitamin D levels. On the other hand, since we're flying blind as far as treatment/prevention options go and considering that in light of this study, vitamin d is going to fly off the shelves and since supplementing vitamin D within safe amounts likely can't hurt, having some on hand might not be a bad idea.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> It's a pretty 'thin' study and the U.S. was apparently not one of the countries that has had traditionally low vitamin D levels. On the other hand, since we're flying blind as far as treatment/prevention options go and considering that in light of this study, vitamin d is going to fly off the shelves and since supplementing vitamin D within safe amounts likely can't hurt, having some on hand might not be a bad idea.


Not to mention that Vitamin D is the "sunshine vitamin," and since hiding indoors is turning us all into dank and pale Gollum-like creatures, the vitamin doesn't sound like a bad idea in any event!


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> It's a pretty 'thin' study and the U.S. was apparently not one of the countries that has had traditionally low vitamin D levels. On the other hand, since we're flying blind as far as treatment/prevention options go and considering that in light of this study, vitamin d is going to fly off the shelves and since supplementing vitamin D within safe amounts likely can't hurt, having some on hand might not be a bad idea.


Of course it is usually better to get with foods naturally (and a little sunlight) and I leave it to others to find what they may like. However I still focus on quality of food choices. Everyday in my diet I usually have blueberries, dates, bananas, apples, nuts, hummus, lentils with cauliflowers, give or take and rotate with other meals. This is not new but I feel it is important. Also walking for at least 30 minutes everyday (if homebound) will add to the overall health. To be honest, I pay no mind to the news or experts on being defensive; I listen to my body and eat what I know I need. If I do not feel well after eating a food that is not healthy I know not to eat it again or not as much.


----------



## DaveM

Bigbang said:


> Of course it is usually better to get with foods naturally (and a little sunlight) and I leave it to others to find what they may like. However I still focus on quality of food choices. Everyday in my diet I usually have blueberries, dates, bananas, apples, nuts, hummus, lentils with cauliflowers, give or take and rotate with other meals. This is not new but I feel it is important. Also walking for at least 30 minutes everyday (if homebound) will add to the overall health. To be honest, I pay no mind to the news or experts on being defensive; I listen to my body and eat what I know I need. If I do not feel well after eating a food that is not healthy I know not to eat it again or not as much.


Of course, eating well and getting good exercise are paramount in everyday health. But there's more to this subject than diet and exercise. Vitamin D has been associated with reducing inflammation and _may_ (at least according to the study authors) reduce overreaction of the immune system in Covid-19 eg. less chance of the cytokine storm. A corollary is that if abnormally low vitamin D increases mortality in Covid-19, then perhaps supplementing it gives more protection.

Vitamin D is harder to get in the diet than other common vitamins. None of the foods you list are particularly high in it. Sunlight is a primary source and then fish and supplemented foods including yogurt and milk. Personally I may go back on 1000 iu/day as I was on for years until I quit 3 years ago.


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Regarding global goals for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: I'm really curious about one thing. Sure, I can be a fine fellow and trade in my 8 mpg Toronado for a Prius and feel all proud of myself. But I look around and see that India's population is about to surpass China's. Africa's population is still skyrocketing, as are populations in many Middle Eastern countries, Central America, and so forth.
> 
> What about these people, who likely aspire to a standard of living like those of the Western democracies, that will inevitably result in energy-intensive lifestyles? It's likely they can only hope to achieve these lifestyles through technologies that are cheap, not ones that are green. How are they and their futures considered in the calculations of the IPCC?


And if they _don't _modernize, with expected population growth, things will get even worse in the Third World.

On another political forum someone posted a map of air quality around the world. Some of the worst air quality was where no one suspected, not in China with its factories, but in parts of the Third World. People wondered how. A likely explanation that came up is that people in these countries are doing things like burning wood for heat and cooking. This is the most old-fashioned, dirtiest method of getting energy that there is. When you burn things in high population areas you're going to have a lot of air pollution, and it affects earth's climate, not just local people. If it isn't modernized, it will get worse as population grows.

Unless this kind of thing changes, whatever we in the First World do to become more energy-efficient isn't going to suffice. That's why even though I well believe in human-induced climate change, I'm pessimistic that it can be fixed.


----------



## Open Book

pianozach said:


> The "Spanish Flu" is an H1N1 novel virus. It is the most common cause of flu.
> 
> Other strains of H1N1 are endemic in pigs (swine influenza) and in birds (avian influenza). We had a swine flu pandemic in 2009/10 (H1N1/09 virus) with an estimated 151,700 to 575,400 deaths total in about 20 months.


If you are implying Spanish flu is the same common flu (which I realize is of more than one variety) we experience today, I'm sure you are wrong. Why are you assuming that? Link?

It was far more deadly than our flu. Infected 500 million, killed 50 to 100 million. It was a new illness like covid-19. And it seems to have died out.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> See, if we go state by state like that, then how about we turn down the liberal states who are requesting bailouts because they were already in the crapper financially before this coronavirus hit.


the blue states are net donors of taxes, and the red states are net takers of taxes. How about the blue states stop their contributions? The pandemic is soon going to hit the states where people tan their necks, too.
The Pandemic Will Soon Test Rural America
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/arti...0-05-06/pandemic-will-soon-test-rural-america


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## perempe

a man who works as an IT for the local police department has a part-time job as well. he did some networking stuff in my mother's house who's a pediatrician. he created accounts as well, but did not provide the passwords and when she wanted to ask some days later he told that he's out with fever. my mother examined me for dental problems a couplle days ago. dentists aren't available these days.


----------



## TxllxT

Whole armadas of idling cruise ships (some costing more than $ 1 billion) at sea with their crew often being trapped on board https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33338/satellite-images-show-armadas-of-vacant-cruise-ships-huddling-together-out-at-sea Many of the crew members are too poor to buy a flight ticket home and neither does their government (f.e. the Philippines) take any initiative to bring them home. Apart from that the whole cruise shipping business seems to be doomed thanks to corona.


----------



## Bigbang

DaveM said:


> Of course, eating well and getting good exercise are paramount in everyday health. But there's more to this subject than diet and exercise. Vitamin D has been associated with reducing inflammation and _may_ (at least according to the study authors) reduce overreaction of the immune system in Covid-19 eg. less chance of the cytokine storm. A corollary is that if abnormally low vitamin D increases mortality in Covid-19, then perhaps supplementing it gives more protection.
> 
> Vitamin D is harder to get in the diet than other common vitamins. None of the foods you list are particularly high in it. Sunlight is a primary source and then fish and supplemented foods including yogurt and milk. Personally I may go back on 1000 iu/day as I was on for years until I quit 3 years ago.


First, better to let doctors advise each on this issue if questions for anyone as each situation is different for every person.

I was not promoting vitamin d foods (google provides this) but my approach for me is to eat heathy so my immune system is not comprised by foods not adding to my overall health. If a person is eating poorly (lack of good plant foods/fruits particularly) and thinks (ignoring their poor diet) I will take vitamin d as a preventive measure. Sure, might help but I would not getting too worked up over every new finding as they are uncovering new stuff every day, and how to interpret the data.

Hence the idea of "let thy food be thy medicine and medicine be they food"--Hippocrates, but of course medicine has come a long way. So, again, under doctors advice, I would focus on best foods for this pandemic and beyond to stay as heathy as possible. But what doctor will say, "no do not eat healthy!" but may not suggest extra doses of vitamin d depending on health situation.

Your excellent response as always is noted again.


----------



## eljr

mmsbls said:


> I'm not suggesting that the path is simple, but if new power systems are renewable (solar, wind, etc.), then emissions can be minimal. That's the whole trick. We want developing countries to take a different path to an advanced economy than we did.


You do and I do, this administration does not want to.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> If you are implying Spanish flu is the same common flu (which I realize is of more than one variety) we experience today, I'm sure you are wrong. Why are you assuming that? Link?
> 
> It was far more deadly than our flu. Infected 500 million, killed 50 to 100 million. It was a new illness like covid-19. And it seems to have died out.


It is all the same virus, just different strains. Certain mutations make it more virulent and lethal. Medical knowledge and healthcare was also what we now have back when the Spanish flu hit. That makes a big difference. Simple bacterial infections that we can now cure with a basic antibiotic regimen used to be potential death sentences. A simple infection due to a cut might have led to amputation.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

TxllxT said:


> Whole armadas of idling cruise ships (some costing more than $ 1 billion) at sea with their crew often being trapped on board https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33338/satellite-images-show-armadas-of-vacant-cruise-ships-huddling-together-out-at-sea Many of the crew members are too poor to buy a flight ticket home and neither does their government (f.e. the Philippines) take any initiative to bring them home. Apart from that the whole cruise shipping business seems to be doomed thanks to corona.


Yeah - I've heard numerous analyses saying this may sink (pun intended) the cruise industry. They had already taken some hits in recent years, and now this - they might never recover.


----------



## science

Jacck said:


> the blue states are net donors of taxes, and the red states are net takers of taxes. How about the blue states stop their contributions? The pandemic is soon going to hit the states where people tan their necks, too.
> The Pandemic Will Soon Test Rural America
> https://www.foreignaffairs.com/arti...0-05-06/pandemic-will-soon-test-rural-america


I've been thinking from the beginning of this that if "Trish and Joe Bob up the holler" die of coronavirus, no one powerful or influential is going to care. They were expendable already to such people. Of course "Trish and Joe Bob up the holler" are the kind of "expendable" people most familiar to me personally, but I'd bet that a lot the difference between the official death count and the actual excess deaths consists of "expendable" people of various kinds.

What is clearly happening now, in the push to open things back up even though there is no sign of decline in the number of cases, is that powerful people have decided that the virus isn't a threat to hem personally, while the people who are at risk are expendable to them.

The very cold, very hard question is whether enough of them will die to make the powerful people realize that they aren't expendable -- or if in fact it will turn out that they are expendable, that no matter how many of them die, the powerful people will not be materially harmed enough to do anything about it.

That is the most frustrating thing to me. Trish and Joe Bob up the holler are my family.

So we shall see.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Yeah - I've heard numerous analyses saying this may sink (pun intended) *the cruise industry*. They had already taken some hits in recent years, and now this - they might never recover.


The cruise industry has had several notable "Top News Story" appearances in the past several years for onboard sicknesses.

As a nation, and especially cities with dense urban populations should have paid attention. Cruise ships are tiny microcosmic cities.


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> I've been thinking from the beginning of this that if "Trish and Joe Bob up the holler" die of coronavirus, no one powerful or influential is going to care. They were expendable already to such people. Of course "Trish and Joe Bob up the holler" are the kind of "expendable" people most familiar to me personally, but I'd bet that a lot the difference between the official death count and the actual excess deaths consists of "expendable" people of various kinds.
> 
> What is clearly happening now, in the push to open things back up even though there is no sign of decline in the number of cases, is that powerful people have decided that the virus isn't a threat to hem personally, while the people who are at risk are expendable to them.
> 
> The very cold, very hard question is whether enough of them will die to make the powerful people realize that they aren't expendable -- or if in fact it will turn out that they are expendable, that no matter how many of them die, the powerful people will not be materially harmed enough to do anything about it.
> 
> That is the most frustrating thing to me. Trish and Joe Bob up the holler are my family.
> 
> So we shall see.


why Trish and Bob Joe think that a rich narcissist sociopath who has only contempt for them and who never worked honestly his entire life and who has been running his campaign on lies, hate and fostering divisions, is their savior, is unfathomable. It is equally unfathomable why they vote for the GOP, which is a party for the millionaires and no one else. Maybe 30 years of Rush Limbaugh and similar cretins did its job.


----------



## Flamme

Saw so many chin ese on wy 2 work...Seems no1 of them retuned 2 china during the crisis...They are really polite and covered from head 2 toe...In asia in general ppl are used 2 wearing masx bcuz of pollution...


----------



## science

Jacck said:


> why Trish and Bob Joe think that a rich narcissist sociopath who has only contempt for them and who never worked honestly his entire life and who has been running his campaign on lies, hate and fostering divisions, is their savior, is unfathomable. It is equally unfathomable why they vote for the GOP, which is a party for the millionaires and no one else. Maybe 30 years of Rush Limbaugh and similar cretins did its job.


I think it makes perfect sense if you see the world from their POV, but we'd better discuss that elsewhere.


----------



## pianozach

A JBS meatpacking plant in Brown County, Wisconsin saw a rise in coronavirus cases after reported cases at the plant increased ten fold, from 60 cases to more than 800 in the span of two weeks

On Tuesday *Wisconsin Supreme Court Chief Justice Patience "Pat" Roggensack* got herself in the news for comments she made during oral arguments in Wisconsin's stay-at-home order case, which challenges the extension of statewide business and school closures due to the outbreak of COVID-19.

An attorney for Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers defended the need for the state's stay-at-home orders.

Justice Roggensack challenged the idea that the outbreak was community-wide and could be replicated elsewhere.

Arguing that the most recent increase in COVID-19 cases mainly reflected an isolated outbreak at one meatpacking facility, she commented, *"Due to the meatpacking, though, that's where Brown County got the flare. It wasn't just the regular folks in Brown County."*

It seems that her comments, and her views on meatpacking-type folks, are *classist and elitist*, although Christine Neumann-Ortiz, director of Voces de la Frontera and workers' advocate, told WISN that she considers the remark *racist*; *". . . it was a racist comment and an elitist comment. She was saying the lives of black and brown workers in these meatpacking facilities were less worthy than the lives of others."*

.https://www.wisn.com/article/corona...g-plant-not-affecting-regular-folks/32393991#


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> I think it makes perfect sense if you see the world from their POV, but we'd better discuss that elsewhere.


https://bipartisanreport.com/2016/0...white-americans-consistently-vote-republican/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/29/working-class-voters-america-republican
we can surely come up with countless explanations.


----------



## pianozach

President Trump won't wear a mask.

*Masks are now just another political battleground*: Wear one and you are taking the virus and the social distancing prescription seriously. Refuse, and you signify something else that may be denial or even defiance.

*It's a pandemic culture war*: On one side are protesters, sometimes armed with guns, who have gathered at state capitols to demand an end to the shutdowns that were ordered to stem the pandemic, on the other side are those who willingly wear them, maintain social distancing guidelines and honor stay-at-home orders in order to do their part for the country.

But, you know, the President's bullying tactics have not worked against a virus, nor will they in the future.

A member of the US Navy who serves as *a valet to President Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid-19*. This means the deadly virus has likely circulated in the White House living quarters, threatening the president's health and, perhaps, the denial that has marked his response to a pandemic that has killed nearly 75,000 Americans in less than four months since he declared, *"We have it totally under control."*


----------



## Art Rock

Never mind.........................................


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

We are testing more people so it stands to reason the number of people testing positive is going to go up. I don't know why that actually makes it as news to anybody here. If we had 100% testing worldwide I think we would see global infection rates shoot up. I'm not sure that is as useful a metric anymore since the variable of how many we are testing is constantly changing.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We are testing more people so it stands to reason the number of people testing positive is going to go up. I don't know why that actually makes it as news to anybody here. If we had 100% testing worldwide I think we would see global infection rates shoot up. I'm not sure that is as useful a metric anymore since the variable of how many we are testing is constantly changing.


Yep. That's how statistics work.

It's a safe bet that if we tested 100% of the world's population, the *death rate* would plummet. Not the number of deaths, mind you, but the deaths per cases would.


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> It is all the same virus, just different strains. Certain mutations make it more virulent and lethal. Medical knowledge and healthcare was also what we now have back when the Spanish flu hit. That makes a big difference. Simple bacterial infections that we can now cure with a basic antibiotic regimen used to be potential death sentences. A simple infection due to a cut might have led to amputation.


No, Spanish flu, like covid-19, is thought to have jumped from animals. Not from the flu viruses that affect humans.


----------



## pianozach

pianozach said:


> President Trump won't wear a mask.
> 
> . . .
> 
> A member of the US Navy who serves as *a valet to President Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid-19*. This means the deadly virus has likely circulated in the White House living quarters, threatening the president's health and, perhaps, the denial that has marked his response to a pandemic that has killed nearly 75,000 Americans in less than four months since he declared, *"We have it totally under control."*


BREAKING NEWS

16 min ago
*Member of Vice President Pence's staff tests positive for coronavirus*

https://www.cnn.com/webview/us/live...dwN2UmZiZ7evaiG1ICYqE2Gw0D5GQxTf6jZkPCxTDeHoU

Of course, the Veep wouldn't wear a mask either, as witnessed when he visited a hospital full of COVID-19 cases.

The vice president's office has refused to comment.

The Vice President is currently on his way to Des Moines, Iowa, where he will participate in *a discussion with faith leaders* on responsible religious and spiritual gatherings followed by a roundtable on *securing the food supply*.


----------



## science

Jacck said:


> https://bipartisanreport.com/2016/0...white-americans-consistently-vote-republican/
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/29/working-class-voters-america-republican
> we can surely come up with countless explanations.


Jonathan Metzl's _Dying of Whiteness_ and before that and pretty much anything that Thomas Frank writes are good explanations, IMO at least. We'd really better discuss it elsewhere.


----------



## pianozach

Open Book said:


> No, Spanish flu, like covid-19, is thought to have jumped from animals. Not from the flu viruses that affect humans.


I find myself having to explain the differences between "the flu" and the latest "coronavirus" strain.

But it seems more difficult to explain "the flu" and "The Spanish Flu".

The very deadly Spanish Flu was caused by an H1N1 virus, with an avian source.

There are two main types of "seasonal flu": Types A and B. Seasonal flu tends to mutate ("antigenic drift") from season to season. Sometimes the predominant flu is a H1N1 variant, sometimes it's a H3N2 variant (a swine source).

In 1957 it was H2N2 (from three different avian gene pools); H2N2 has mutated into various strains including the Asian flu strain (now extinct in the wild), H3N2, and various strains found in birds. It is also suspected of causing a human pandemic in 1889 ("The Russian Flu").

H= hemagglutinin
N= neuraminidase

But if you're really interesting in knowing, you'll actually have to do some reading. Wikipedia article on "Influenza" is surprisingly thorough. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Classification


----------



## mountmccabe

Yeah, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic is thought to have infected more people than the 1918 H1N1 pandemic, but with a fraction of the deaths.

The 1918 version infected maybe 500 million people, and killed 17 to 100 million of them.
The 2009 version infected 700 million to 1.4 billion people, and killed 150,000 to 600,000 of them.

These pandemics were not caused by the exact same strain, but the difference we're seeing is not just virulence, but how much the world now does to fight the flu, how much medicine has progressed.


----------



## Open Book

Who's a biologist here, of any stripe? What is the precise definition of the word "strain"?


----------



## Jacck

Open Book said:


> Who's a biologist here, of any stripe? What is the precise definition of the word "strain"?


I don't know. But I read some interview in Czech media with a guy who researches mutations in viruses and he said, that the viruses mutate constantly and that even in our own body, there are different mutations of the same virus present. The virus muliplies in millions and billions of copies, and there are errors in the DNA (or RNA) transcription. Most of them are not viable, but some of the are. He said that the biggest danger from mutations of this virus is going to be medicament or vaccine resistance. That is if we find out some treatment, the virus will mutate and become resistant.


----------



## Bigbang

pianozach said:


> President Trump won't wear a mask.
> 
> *Masks are now just another political battleground*: Wear one and you are taking the virus and the social distancing prescription seriously. Refuse, and you signify something else that may be denial or even defiance.
> 
> *It's a pandemic culture war*: On one side are protesters, sometimes armed with guns, who have gathered at state capitols to demand an end to the shutdowns that were ordered to stem the pandemic, on the other side are those who willingly wear them, maintain social distancing guidelines and honor stay-at-home orders in order to do their part for the country.
> 
> But, you know, the President's bullying tactics have not worked against a virus, nor will they in the future.
> 
> A member of the US Navy who serves as *a valet to President Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid-19*. This means the deadly virus has likely circulated in the White House living quarters, threatening the president's health and, perhaps, the denial that has marked his response to a pandemic that has killed nearly 75,000 Americans in less than four months since he declared, *"We have it totally under control."*


And certainly a highly trained cleaning crew (top secret) has cleaned every square inch of space potentially exposed to the virus. And the President/VP both will be tested everyday for obvious reasons as either of them can test positive anyday. I am beginning to think a movie will come out of this situation.


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We are testing more people so it stands to reason the number of people testing positive is going to go up. I don't know why that actually makes it as news to anybody here. If we had 100% testing worldwide I think we would see global infection rates shoot up. I'm not sure that is as useful a metric anymore since the variable of how many we are testing is constantly changing.


*Nate Silver* makes the same point. His comments are always worth listening to IMO.

"FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver said the mainstream media is not giving proper context to stories on the rise of coronavirus cases, which he calls a "basic error" that reveals an agenda to prioritize narratives that "sound smart" over accuracy and truth. Silver was bothered that certain stories failed to mention that some growth in the coronavirus infection number is a result of an increase in testing."


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Open Book said:


> No, Spanish flu, like covid-19, is thought to have jumped from animals. Not from the flu viruses that affect humans.


That is just the nature of the flu virus - it also infects other animals, and those animals get infected with multiple strains, and so there is a mixing of the genetic material and that is how you get those genetic shifts that launch worse strains. But it is all influenza virus.


----------



## eljr

Open Book said:


> Who's a biologist here, of any stripe? What is the precise definition of the word "strain"?


we don't need one, we have a dictionary!

biology definition:

a natural or cultured variety of a microorganism with a distinct form, biochemistry, or virulence.


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> *Nate Silver* makes the same point. His comments are always worth listening to IMO.
> 
> "FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver said the mainstream media is not giving proper context to stories on the rise of coronavirus cases, which he calls a "basic error" that reveals an agenda to prioritize narratives that "sound smart" over accuracy and truth. Silver was bothered that certain stories failed to mention that some growth in the coronavirus infection number is a result of an increase in testing."


whenever someone uses the word "mainstream media" he is likely a crackpot or has some hidden agenda (Russian trolls use it a lot)


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> whenever someone uses the word "mainstream media" he is likely a crackpot


I don't think any objective person would consider Nate Silver a crackpot, nor would they consider him someone who attacks the media unfairly. But most media is populated by people who don't really know how to appropriately look at statistics, so they constantly report data without context.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> whenever someone uses the word "mainstream media" he is likely a crackpot or has some hidden agenda (Russian trolls use it a lot)


They're not really, though. Often it's justified to attack the mainstream media, particularly if they express obvious political bias, which I'm sure you've noticed that they do. it skews their reporting, and therefore makes them part of the story...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> They're not really, though. Often it's justified to attack the mainstream media, particularly if they express obvious political bias, which I'm sure you've noticed that they do. it skews their reporting, and therefore makes them part of the story...


It is a propaganda tactic to attack the mainstream media. Hitler has done it too with his Lügenpresse and it has been an important part of the Russian information war. That is exactly how they are attacking the US - sow widespread distrust against the so called MSM, and then feed the victims some antigovernment conspiracy theories. Then these poor people do not trust the MSM, but believe in pizzagate.


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> whenever someone uses the word "mainstream media" he is likely a crackpot or has some hidden agenda (Russian trolls use it a lot)


"Crackpot" meaning, I presume, somebody who doesn't share your political viewpoint. That's a repellant level of discourse.

In any event, it seems "mainstream media" is Fox's term and isn't used in any of Nate Silver's quotes in the story. As Ekim says, Silver is widely respected and was even syndicated a few years back in the NY Times. But the Times evidently discovered that there wasn't much of a market for Silver's product, which is hard-edged statistical analysis without endorsement of any persons or political viewpoints. His web site still reflects the same philosophy.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> It is a propaganda tactic to attack the mainstream media. Hitler has done it too with his Lügenpresse and it has been an important part of the Russian information war. That is exactly how they are attacking the US - sow widespread distrust against the so called MSM, and then feed the victims some antigovernment conspiracy theories. Then these poor people do not trust the MSM, but believe in pizzagate.


And sometimes it is just necessary to specify who you are talking about.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> "Crackpot" meaning, I presume, somebody who doesn't share your political viewpoint. That's a repellant level of discourse.
> 
> In any event, it seems "mainstream media" is Fox's term and isn't used in any of Nate Silver's quotes in the story. As Ekim says, Silver is widely respected and was even syndicated a few years back in the NY Times. But the Times evidently discovered that there wasn't much of a market for Silver's product, which is hard-edged statistical analysis without endorsement of any persons or political viewpoints. His web site still reflects the same philosophy.


He's definitely left of center in his viewpoints, but I enjoy listening to his 538 podcast, particularly during election years (usually stop listening afterwards), because I like to hear the statistics during elections.

Definitely not a crackpot. I don't know what is worse, though: using the term "mainstream media" or reflexively calling somebody a "crackpot" for using that term. Isn't that doing the exact same thing? Dismissing an entire group based on your prejudices?


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> "Crackpot" meaning, I presume, somebody who doesn't share your political viewpoint. That's a repellant level of discourse.
> In any event, it seems "mainstream media" is Fox's term and isn't used in any of Nate Silver's quotes in the story. As Ekim says, Silver is widely respected and was even syndicated a few years back in the NY Times. But the Times evidently discovered that there wasn't much of a market for Silver's product, which is hard-edged statistical analysis without endorsement of any persons or political viewpoints. His web site still reflects the same philosophy.





Jacck said:


> whenever someone uses the word "mainstream media" he is likely a crackpot or has some hidden agenda (Russian trolls use it a lot)


The folks at Folk News are not crackpots, they are sofisticated propagandist who spin and distort and manipulate with truths and half-truths. They need to set themselves apart from the MSM in order to keep their viewers within their alternative universe. Look, only we bring you the true news, all other MSM lie. In reality, it is exactly the opposite. Fox News is manipulative.
https://truthout.org/articles/fourteen-propaganda-techniques-fox-news-uses-to-brainwash-americans/


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> The folks at Folk News are not crackpots, they are sofisticated propagandist who spin and distort and manipulate with truths and half-truths. They need to set themselves apart from the MSM in order to keep their viewers within their alternative universe. Look, only we bring you the true news, all other MSM lie. In reality, it is exactly the opposite. Fox News is manipulative.
> https://truthout.org/articles/fourteen-propaganda-techniques-fox-news-uses-to-brainwash-americans/


As opposed to, say, MSNBC, that still employs Brian Williams as a straight news reporter, who is known to have fabricated "news?" And who mostly runs opinion as news? Fox at least has some objective news programs - your main issue is with the admitted opinion shows in the Prime Time schedule.


----------



## KenOC

It appears 538 is updating their *compendium of six Covid-19 death projections* for the US in toto and by state. This would be a good page to bookmark and watch to see how expectations are changing (or not). Latest page update is this day, May 8.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> It is a propaganda tactic to attack the mainstream media. Hitler has done it too with his Lügenpresse and it has been an important part of the Russian information war. That is exactly how they are attacking the US - sow widespread distrust against the so called MSM, and then feed the victims some antigovernment conspiracy theories. Then these poor people do not trust the MSM, but believe in pizzagate.


None of which means the MSM is trustworthy all the time. There are definite political biases, _totally and utterly_, in the MSM which makes them unreliable witnesses. It means that when we give the MSM a pass, we somehow internalise their biases and tend to see the voices which oppose them as being wrong-minded, beyond the pale, crank, etc. There are difficulties in this. A partisan media is - by definition - always going to be untrustworthy with the news...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

What I like about Silver's page, and also RealClearPolitics, is that they will show different projections/polls as well, so you can see them all in aggregate, as opposed to news stories which usually just cherrypick the poll or study that fits their narrative.


----------



## EdwardBast

Open Book said:


> Who's a biologist here, of any stripe? What is the precise definition of the word "strain"?


This piece in the Atlantic explains it:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/coronavirus-strains-transmissible/611239/

According to the above there isn't a precise definition; A new strain is designated when a mutation produces a significant difference in contagiousness, virulence, or the demographics affected.


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> What I like about Silver's page, and also RealClearPolitics, is that they will show different projections/polls as well, so you can see them all in aggregate, as opposed to news stories which usually just cherrypick the poll or study that fits their narrative.


Unfortunately, certain shrill idiologues (and I will name no names) may see it differently. They will see a mixture of blessed truths and damned lies, which being which depending on the store where they bought their beliefs in bulk, obviously highly discounted and for good reason.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> As opposed to, say, MSNBC, that still employs Brian Williams as a straight news reporter, who is known to have fabricated "news?" And who mostly runs opinion as news? Fox at least has some objective news programs - your main issue is with the admitted opinion shows in the Prime Time schedule.


That's a pretty weak comparison with the silly stuff constantly coming out of Hannity, Tucker, Ingraham and Piro over at Fox. I haven't liked watching Brian Williams ever since he embellished his experiences a number of years ago, but he doesn't live in the parallel universe so many at Fox News do. I'm still very much a Republican at heart, but according to a definition that doesn't exist in whatever that party is right now and certainly not what is put out by those at Fox with perhaps 3 or 4 exceptions.

Not to mention that over the last year or two people have been leaving Fox. They are not leaving CNN or MSNBC. And that doesn't mean I love everything about CNN and MSNBC either.


----------



## mmsbls

Speaking of bias, the Knight Foundation partnered with Gallop to do a series of polls investigating consumer bias in assessing media bias. Essentially they collected a large number of articles from a wide range of sources and displayed them to people with and without attribution of sources. So some people saw that news came from MSNBC, Fox, or PBS while others did not know where the news came from. Some results are here, but an article in the NY Times gives a nice summary.

The results are fairly interesting.

In general, those who saw the attribution of source were significantly more biased about the article than those who did not see the attribution.
Those who are most distrustful of the news media tend to be the most biased readers.
Those with more extreme political views tend to provide more biased ratings of news.

There is a figure showing the percentage of large ratings bias for consumers of various news sources (i.e. those who say they have high trust in that particular source). Some may be interested to view those results, but I'll simply say, by far the least biased consumers were those who viewed PBS as highly trustworthy.

So it's nice that everyone is certain about the high bias in media sources, and people know for certain which sources are most biased. I feel that consumers should be more wary of their own bias in assessing media bias.


----------



## Room2201974

One thing Williams didn't do was shamelessly promote Hydroxychloroquine like Hannity, Ingraham and Carlson did. I'd like to see the last 8 weeks of their stock transactions!!!!


----------



## KenOC

Fox is the granddaddy of them all. It was the first to demonstrate that openly biased reporting served the purpose of "news as entertainment" and could make a handsome proifit. Over time, many other news soiurces, both print and broadcast, followed. Today it's difficult to choose except by your own personal biases.


----------



## Guest

DaveM said:


> That's a pretty weak comparison with the silly stuff constantly coming out of Hannity, Tucker, Ingraham and Piro over at Fox. I haven't liked watching Brian Williams ever since he embellished his experiences a number of years ago, but he doesn't live in the parallel universe so many at Fox News do. I'm still very much a Republican at heart, but according to a definition that doesn't exist in whatever that party is right now and certainly not what is put out by those at Fox with perhaps 3 or 4 exceptions.
> 
> Not to mention that over the last year or two people have been leaving Fox. They are not leaving CNN or MSNBC. And that doesn't mean I love everything about CNN and MSNBC either.


This is the ONLY criticism of Fox available to those who are completely propagandized by the fake news media; NYT, WaPo, CNN etc. who just re-iterate everything the Democrats say - and feed questions to their candidate during the 2016 election!!

At least Fox discusses issues like homelessness and filthy streets in LA because of progressive governments who want an 'anything goes' policy - with (absolutely incredibly!) more open borders. No wonder the Democrat supporters hate this; Fox has a keen eye for the dilapidated so-called 'progressive' policies advocated by the Left. What sort of hell hole do you want your state to be?


----------



## KenOC

mmsbls said:


> ...but I'll simply say, by far the least biased consumers were those who viewed PBS as highly trustworthy.


I wonder exactly who decides who's biased and who's not. I think of PBS as the "Victims of the white man" channel because that seems to be about 75% of their programming… :lol:


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> I wonder exactly who decides who's biased and who's not. I think of PBS as the "Victims of the white man" channel because that seems to be about 75% of their programming… :lol:


I taught media bias to my high school students (15+ plus years of age). It was as easy as falling off a log. Get 2 or 3 papers and/or other items and compare and contrast the SAME ISSUES. As the English syllabus was all about 'how values are expressed in texts' this made my job much easier. Bias and cultural messaging in films designed for entertainment was especially easy. Controversial topics a snip. I showed my 16y/o students one 'controversial' film and did a sequence by sequence analysis to demonstrate the sheer manipulation; one girl up the back slammed her hand on the desk and said, "I'm not going to tolerate it, miss". Bingo!!

It's very important to understand (if there's anything at all to be found between the ears) that what is *LEFT OUT* of media is equally indicative of bias as the actual slant on that which is discussed. Look at two news sources for the day; what is left out and why and what's the difference in the treatment of the current issues. Values are easily detectable and you can teach a reasonably intelligent 11 year old this stuff.

Much media these days is activist, many engage in fake news (which is soon found to be completely false) and some deliberately will not touch sensitive issues because it throws a poor light on their political ideologies. I call this the 'cheer-leading media'; you know, the ones which feed questions to Presidential candidates. AKA "luvvie media". But no real penetration, criticism or analysis is ever required. Why? Because the people don't demand it. They're happy to be dumbed down and distracted by bread and circuses.

By their fruits shall ye know them!!!


----------



## DaveM

Christabel said:


> This is the ONLY criticism of Fox available to those who are completely propagandized by the fake news media; NYT, WaPo, CNN etc. who just re-iterate everything the Democrats say - and feed questions to their candidate during the 2016 election!!
> 
> At least Fox discusses issues like homelessness and filthy streets in LA because of progressive governments who want an 'anything goes' policy - with (absolutely incredibly!) more open borders. No wonder the Democrat supporters hate this; Fox has a keen eye for the dilapidated so-called 'progressive' policies advocated by the Left. What sort of hell hole do you want your state to be?


Well, I live in LA and you don't. I live in this country and you don't. You live in a country with 2/3 the population of my state, one of 50 in this union. Your country has no border with any country while we have 2 borders, one of which is 2000 miles with a third-world country. I live within a relatively short driving distance of that border. I understand the complexities of our border situation since I've lived around people who cross that border frequently. You don't and you haven't.

I don't have the perspective of someone living in Australia so I wouldn't presume to comment on the political and cultural problems there although Lord knows you have them. All you know about my country is what you read and see on TV and I can tell from what you post that those sources are through a very narrow prism. And that's coming from a longtime conservative, so you can't claim this comes from a liberal bias.


----------



## Luchesi

Christabel said:


> I taught media bias to my high school students (15+ plus years of age). It was as easy as falling off a log. Get 2 or 3 papers and/or other items and compare and contrast the SAME ISSUES. As the English syllabus was all about 'how values are expressed in texts' this made my job much easier. Bias and cultural messaging in films designed for entertainment was especially easy. Controversial topics a snip. I showed my 16y/o students one 'controversial' film and did a sequence by sequence analysis to demonstrate the sheer manipulation; one girl up the back slammed her hand on the desk and said, "I'm not going to tolerate it, miss". Bingo!!
> 
> It's very important to understand (if there's anything at all to be found between the ears) that what is *LEFT OUT* of media is equally indicative of bias as the actual slant on that which is discussed. Look at two news sources for the day; what is left out and why and what's the difference in the treatment of the current issues. Values are easily detectable and you can teach a reasonably intelligent 11 year old this stuff.
> 
> Much media these days is activist, many engage in fake news (which is soon found to be completely false) and some deliberately will not touch sensitive issues because it throws a poor light on their political ideologies. I call this the 'cheer-leading media'; you know, the ones which feed questions to Presidential candidates. AKA "luvvie media". But no real penetration, criticism or analysis is ever required. Why? Because the people don't demand it. They're happy to be dumbed down and distracted by bread and circuses.
> 
> By their fruits shall ye know them!!!


Liberals are sly. They know what would happen if right-wingers got their changes.


----------



## EdwardBast

KenOC said:


> I wonder exactly who decides who's biased and who's not. I think of PBS as the *"Victims of the white man" channel because that seems to be about 75% of their programming…* :lol:


Since only about 50% of the current potential audience is in that category (since we can't count the untold dead), I imagine you are exaggerating a bit.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> That's a pretty weak comparison with the silly stuff constantly coming out of Hannity, Tucker, Ingraham and Piro over at Fox. I haven't liked watching Brian Williams ever since he embellished his experiences a number of years ago, but he doesn't live in the parallel universe so many at Fox News do. I'm still very much a Republican at heart, but according to a definition that doesn't exist in whatever that party is right now and certainly not what is put out by those at Fox with perhaps 3 or 4 exceptions.
> 
> Not to mention that over the last year or two people have been leaving Fox. They are not leaving CNN or MSNBC. And that doesn't mean I love everything about CNN and MSNBC either.


I turn it off after Special Report with Bret Baier. Like I said, those that you criticize are opinion shows. Baier and the news prior are straight news. There isn't any distinction anymore on MSNBC and CNN between the opinion and news.


----------



## Varick

mmsbls said:


> This is actually really interesting. It appears to be true that unemployment is associated with higher mortality, but it also seems to be true that recessions are associated with lower mortality (see here, here, here, here, and here). In fact, this study estimated that during the Great Recession, a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years.
> 
> Apparently, while suicides increase during recessions, outcomes such as accidents, homicides, and heart attacks decrease. In addition environmental pollution decreases which may reduce mortality. Further, this recession may be unusual in that the recovery could be extremely fast. No one suggests that recessions are a good thing because there are obvious negative outcomes associated with them, but the overall effect is uncertain.


That's strange, I saw it on the internet once. Can't believe it isn't true...

Seriously though, there is complicated data involved and I looked into many articles regarding this today, and yes, it does seem to be uncertain. I heard often during the Great Recession the 1% increase in unemployment = approx 10,000 deaths. This was by economists, health statistics, etc,. Some say, although there may be a decrease in once area of mortality, it increases in other areas.

However, all those reports are missing a much bigger picture. We must look at the global economy. USA, Canada, Western Europe and parts of Asia have enormous economic influence world wide, particularly in 3rd world and developing countries. If only the US economy tanks, this has devastating effects world wide. What about the guy in Bangladesh who makes jeans? What about the people in Cambodia who make clothes.? If these people don't work, they don't eat. IF they don't eat, they die. They aren't in economically developed countries like (probably) everyone here in TC is who have all kinds of gov't bail out programs and stipends to help people out because they have relatively strong economies. What about those people? I find it very strange that the vast vast vast majority of people, politicians, media types, and "experts" who are all for the continuation of these lock downs everywhere aren't the people who have been missing pay checks during this and aren't in any danger of losing their jobs any time soon.



mmsbls said:


> I simply don't believe that the many dozens of scientists and doctors I've listened to on media outlets are all paid huge sums of money to tarnish their names within the medical profession. I don't believe in conspiracy theories that are that unreasonable.


 I don't believe in conspiracy theories either. Very few that I've seen in my lifetime have ever been proven. However, it's not just about being "paid huge sums of money." It's about towing a certain narrative to be accepted and not becoming a pariah within one's own community, but more on that below.



mmsbls said:


> As far as I can tell, doctors seem to believe that Erikson and his partner's methodology was flawed and the results contained serious statistical errors. I tend to believe peer reviewed journal articles but view youtube videos with much greater skepticism.


 Erikson flat out said on subsequent interviews that what he and his partner were discussing were their "opinions." These were conclusions strictly based upon the "results" of the many patients they have seen with this covid and the research they have done. The fact that Youtube deems one person's opinion so unworthy in contrast to their own is rather disturbing. So much for an "open forum." Peer reviewed research is great, but too many people are willing to dismiss anecdotal evidence. Of course if you have 1, 2, 5, 10 anecdotes out of thousands, maybe you take that with a grain of salt. But when you have Hundreds bordering on 70-90% of the same results out of thousands, you might want take a close look at those, peer reviewed or not. Especially when time is of the essence.



mmsbls said:


> This one is a bit embarrassing. Researchers could not replicate Dr. Mikovits's results from her 2009 Science paper. In fact the authors issued a partial retraction, and Science ultimately retracted the paper. She says that Dr. Fauci directed the coverup and everybody else was paid off big time. This episode sounds similar to another anti-vaccine researcher, Dr. Andrew Wakefield, whose paper was also retracted although his was due to intentional fraud rather than likely contamination of results.


The problem with posting something so late at night is one forgets to add things to posts. I found the first 10 minutes of that video to be a bit too conspiratorial for my taste as well. However, that video was more interesting given the other medical people in there talking about how isolating ourselves is the exact opposite of what we should be doing regarding the threat of a 2nd wave because we need to build our immunity and anti-bodies up.



mmsbls said:


> The scientific community is not supporting Erikson, Mikovits, and Wakefield due to a coverup but rather because *scientists care deeply about truth*. When huge multinational corporations along with many politicians tried to suppress certain climate change scientists's results, the scientific community showed enormous support of those climate scientists. No amount of money could silence the community.
> 
> I don't believe Mikovits's claim that xenotropic murine leukemia virus (XMRV) is associated with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.
> 
> I don't believe that vaccines cause autism.
> 
> I don't believe that scientists created cold fusion in their lab.
> 
> I don't believe the Roswell crash had anything to do with aliens.
> 
> I'm simply not a fan of conspiracy theories.


I am no fan of conspiracy theories myself. I never have been. I don't know enough about XMRV and how it is or isn't associated with CFS. I'm VERY skeptical that vaccines cause autism as well. I don't know a damn thing about cold fusion, and I certainly don't believe that Roswell has anything to do with Aliens.

But I do believe in *science*. I do believe in the *scientific method* and that *science* is the pursuit of truth. But it is the height of naivety, ignorance, lack of critical thinking, and lack of wisdom to think that *scientists* are above the same human flaws that every other human in every other endeavor in the world are. As with everything else, SCIENTISTS range form the bad to the great in their competence, knowledge, wisdom, and ethics. Scientists are just as corruptible as politicians, businessmen, teachers, police, electricians, gov't employees of every stripe, carpenters, IT techs, etc, etc. If you don't think that science has been corrupted by politics and ideology, then I have a bridge to sell you. Real cheap too, I PROMISE!

As we have become a more secular society (world - particularly Western civilization) we have forgotten a simple fact: That we are religious beings. That doesn't have to come in the form of some organized religion. We want and need priests as every religion does. Scientists and experts have become the priests of secular society. People, particularly politicians, bow down and genuflect to them, and more and more of our citizenry does as well. We forget, that they are just as human, flawed, corruptible and incompetent as any other person can be in every aspect of life.

V


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> One thing Williams didn't do was shamelessly promote Hydroxychloroquine like Hannity, Ingraham and Carlson did. I'd like to see the last 8 weeks of their stock transactions!!!!


Versus those at the other outlets who desperately wanted to see it fail as a treatment so they could rub it in Trump's face? It isn't like it was holistic medicine, some crackpot snake oil. It is a real medication that is used to treat malaria. I never liked those who shamelessly pushed it even though they knew nothing of it, but I was hoping it would work because we desperately need something - and it was just as shameful to watch those at other outlets who also know nothing hoping it failed for purely partisan political reasons, because Trump is mean to Jim Acosta or some other sob story.


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## science

Has anyone on any major cable television "news" program ever actually expressed or even implied that they hoped a treatment for coronavirus would fail?


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## science

KenOC said:


> I wonder exactly who decides who's biased and who's not. I think of PBS as the "Victims of the white man" channel because that seems to be about 75% of their programming… :lol:


PBS is corporate media but clever. You will not often hear them defy corporate power on behalf of working-class people of any race.


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## KenOC

science said:


> PBS is corporate media but clever. You will not often hear them defy corporate power on behalf of working-class people of any race.


No, they reserve their hand-wringing for outrages that are safely in the past. The internment of Japanese citizens in WWII, oppression of Hispanics in California in the 1930s and 1940s, the Chinese Exclusion Act... If I see yet another program on Manzunar I think I'll hang myself. I mean, how much guilt can one man handle?

Oh. I guess I wasn't born yet. Never mind.


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## science

The media biases are actually pretty easy to understand. Media isn't free; it has to get money from somewhere. Corporations that buy ads do not expect to be challenged. Donors don't expect to be challenged.

When the 3 richest Americans have as much money as the bottom 50%, what do you think the numbers are for the 33,000 richest Americans? How much is left for the rest? The famous video from 2012 about wealth inequality in America is now hopelessly out of date -- it's so much worse now. The first chart here (notice that it's interactive) only goes to 2016, but note how much it changed between 2013 and 2016, and you can be sure it's changed at least that much since 2016 -- especially in the past few months, when the corporate elite have been bailed out with unprecedented government largesse while a lot of ordinary people are having trouble getting their one-time tax refund.

Now I'm among the people of toward the right of charts like that. (Not the extreme right, but I live in a fatter part of the curve.) I didn't used to be, I used to be trailer park trash, and part of me always will be no matter how much money I make. Moving from the shabbiest trailer in the trailer park to the benefits of a Yale education makes some things clear.

And one of them is that almost every major institution in this country is entirely controlled by people who are more like me now than like me forty years ago.

The range of permitted polite discussion on cable news is what you'd expect given that it's controlled by older people who wear suits to work in Manhattan.

And it's run on behalf of all that money. All that money buys media and politics. The bottom, oh, 99% is just left out.

Anyway, we all know this stuff and it's waste of time to talk about it further. We believe what we want to believe based on what we think is going to privilege us against other people. No amount of information is going to overcome anything like that. Have fun guys.


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## starthrower

science said:


> PBS is corporate media but clever. You will not often hear them defy corporate power on behalf of working-class people of any race.


Not with over a hundred corporate sponsors including Amazon, Boeing, ExxonMobil, Microsoft, Pfizer, and several major financial institutions. NPR has even more sponsors. Journalist Greg Palast jokingly refers to them as National Petroleum Radio. I still enjoy some of their programming. I find NPR talking heads much less annoying and more informative than a useless whiner like morning Joe at MSNBC.


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## science

starthrower said:


> Not with over a hundred corporate sponsors including Amazon, Boeing, ExxonMobil, Microsoft, Pfizer, and several major financial institutions. NPR has even more sponsors. Journalist Greg Palast jokingly refers to them as National Petroleum Radio. I still enjoy some of their programming. I find NPR talking heads much less annoying and more informative than a useless whiner like morning Joe at MSNBC.


Yes. They are very much a lesser evil.


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## arpeggio

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Versus those at the other outlets who desperately wanted to see it fail as a treatment so they could rub it in Trump's face? It isn't like it was holistic medicine, some crackpot snake oil. It is a real medication that is used to treat malaria. I never liked those who shamelessly pushed it even though they knew nothing of it, but I was hoping it would work because we desperately need something - and it was just as shameful to watch those at other outlets who also know nothing hoping it failed for purely partisan political reasons, because Trump is mean to Jim Acosta or some other sob story.


With 300 million people in the US I am sure there are some nut jobs who believe this. I have not heard of anybody on the left who believe this nonsense. As I have stated earlier, we do not believe anyone should die from this, even those who believe it is a hoax.


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## arpeggio

I found this interesting article:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/what-are-we-doing-doctors-are-fed-conspiracies-ravaging-ers-n1201446?utm_source=pocket-newtab


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## starthrower

In my county here in central NY it was reported that an infected person went shopping at no less than eight retail outlets at opposite ends of the county last weekend. It's this kind of irresponsible conduct that is getting more people sick. And a huge greenhouse farming facility 30 miles to the east employing 300 has reported 139 positive cases. The site continues to operate and there are no plans to shut down.


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Where will the food come from if we shut down the farms?


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## Sad Al

mmsbls said:


> I'm not suggesting that the path is simple, but if new power systems are renewable (solar, wind, etc.), then emissions can be minimal. That's the whole trick. We want developing countries to take a different path to an advanced economy than we did.


Electricity is 20% of world energy and renewables need back up. Theoretical maximum for renewables is thus 10% of world energy. For many reasons it is less. Let's imagine a time when the world produces 7% of its energy with renewables. Are emissions minimal? No. On the contrary, emissions are bigger than ever because 'renewable' electricity grows the civilization, increases total world energy demand and then we burn more fossil fuels.


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## science

arpeggio said:


> I found this interesting article:
> 
> https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/what-are-we-doing-doctors-are-fed-conspiracies-ravaging-ers-n1201446?utm_source=pocket-newtab


Thank you for sharing that.


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## Jacck

Varick said:


> Seriously though, there is complicated data involved and I looked into many articles regarding this today, and yes, it does seem to be uncertain. I heard often during the Great Recession the 1% increase in unemployment = approx 10,000 deaths. This was by economists, health statistics, etc,. Some say, although there may be a decrease in once area of mortality, it increases in other areas.


I heard similar comments too, from sources I do not trust, such as Trump and other right-wing demagogues and ideologues, who are losing a lot of money from the lock-down and so want everyone back to working. Show me a scientific paper that examines increases in death rates during economic recessions. Some sources indicate even the oposite
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-basic-assumptions-about-how-the-world-works/
and BTW, it is exactly the GOP ideology, which is directly responsible for the abysmal levels of income inequality in the US and is thus killing people



> Erikson flat out said on subsequent interviews that what he and his partner were discussing were their "opinions." These were conclusions strictly based upon the "results" of the many patients they have seen with this covid and the research they have done. The fact that Youtube deems one person's opinion so unworthy in contrast to their own is rather disturbing. So much for an "open forum." Peer reviewed research is great, but too many people are willing to dismiss anecdotal evidence. Of course if you have 1, 2, 5, 10 anecdotes out of thousands, maybe you take that with a grain of salt. But when you have Hundreds bordering on 70-90% of the same results out of thousands, you might want take a close look at those, peer reviewed or not. Especially when time is of the essence.


anecdotal evidence might have some value to direct further research, but it many never be used to introduce new drugs to treat anything



> But I do believe in *science*. I do believe in the *scientific method* and that *science* is the pursuit of truth. But it is the height of naivety, ignorance, lack of critical thinking, and lack of wisdom to think that *scientists* are above the same human flaws that every other human in every other endeavor in the world are. As with everything else, SCIENTISTS range form the bad to the great in their competence, knowledge, wisdom, and ethics. Scientists are just as corruptible as politicians, businessmen, teachers, police, electricians, gov't employees of every stripe, carpenters, IT techs, etc, etc. If you don't think that science has been corrupted by politics and ideology, then I have a bridge to sell you. Real cheap too, I PROMISE!.


First, I do not believe that you are wise. It is just you yourself, who in your hubris, considers yourself to be wise. Second, you know nothing of science, otherwise you would never put a false equality between a politician and scientist. You know nothing about scientific method and the search for truth backed by evidence. Yes, scientists are fallible, some can even have moral flaws, but overall, they are much more trustworthy than the politicians or the priests



> As we have become a more secular society (world - particularly Western civilization) we have forgotten a simple fact: That we are religious beings. That doesn't have to come in the form of some organized religion. We want and need priests as every religion does. Scientists and experts have become the priests of secular society. People, particularly politicians, bow down and genuflect to them, and more and more of our citizenry does as well. We forget, that they are just as human, flawed, corruptible and incompetent as any other person can be in every aspect of life..


religion. Now it is clear to me, what the source of your wisdom is.


----------



## science

Sad Al said:


> Electricity is 20% of world energy and renewables need back up. Theoretical maximum for renewables is thus 10% of world energy. For many reasons it is less. Let's imagine a time when the world produces 7% of its energy with renewables. Are emissions minimal? No. On the contrary, emissions are bigger than ever because 'renewable' electricity grows the civilization, increases total world energy demand and then we burn more fossil fuels.


I did a fair bit of research into the potential for renewable energy and other energy issues last year, and I think the picture is a lot more optimistic than you say here. That's off-topic for this discussion, and of course I don't know whether you personally are looking for hope or if you're trying to be on the side of the coal/oil industry, but if it's the former you might want to look into it further.

Although I did a lot of academic-style research, Bruce Usher's _Renewable Energy_ is probably what I can best recommend. It's a good plain-language guide to the pros and cons of renewables (and related issues like electric vehicles and energy efficiency).

However, I feel Usher _might_ -- I do want to draw emphasized attention with stress on my uncertainty -- be a little too pessimistic. He knows a lot more about it than I do, of course, but I suspect we may be nearer to a "tipping point" than he realizes. We'll see....


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## starthrower

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Where will the food come from if we shut down the farms?


Who is suggesting shutting down all farms? This one is an indoor facility growing strawberries and cucumbers. Employees are in close proximity and 50 percent of the workforce is infected.


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## arpeggio

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Where will the food come from if we shut down the farms?


Tell me you are joking.


----------



## DaveM

I’m trying to understand how often we are seeing people who are at close quarters getting this disease and yet 2 people, 1 close to the president and the other close to the V.P., have contracted it and yet, it has not run through the West Wing of the Whitehouse where people are at close quarters and are not wearing masks. Or maybe it is next...


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## Sad Al

Quote from preface of Usher's book: "_I have more than an academic interest in renewable energy. I am also an investor in early-stage companies._"

Making money fast! I hope that you didn't buy that book.


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## science

Y'alll, this article from the Atlantic is hard to read, but it is also the basic truth about what is going on in the USA with the response to coronavirus. I would qualify or supplement the author's points in a few ways, but if we're going to discuss it we should definitely go to the groups.


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## science

Sad Al said:


> Quote from preface of Usher's book: "_I have more than an academic interest in renewable energy. I am also an investor in early-stage companies._"
> 
> Making money fast! I hope that you didn't buy that book.


I begin to suspect that you're rooting against renewable energy. But if you're just looking for information, feel free to consult other sources.


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## Jacck

China-style supression of scientific advice
Docs show top WH officials buried CDC report


----------



## science

starthrower said:


> Who is suggesting shutting down all farms? This one is an indoor facility growing strawberries and cucumbers. Employees are in close proximity and 50 percent of the workforce is infected.


Every.

Single.

Farm.

Or else none of them. We must exclude the middle!

(My goodness do I hope it's apparent that I'm kidding.)


----------



## mmsbls

Varick said:


> ...If only the US economy tanks, this has devastating effects world wide. What about the guy in Bangladesh who makes jeans? What about the people in Cambodia who make clothes.? If these people don't work, they don't eat. IF they don't eat, they die.


I agree that this is a serious issue.



Varick said:


> ...The fact that Youtube deems one person's opinion so unworthy in contrast to their own is rather disturbing. ...


My understanding is that youtube did not remove the video because the view differed from their own but rather the video's view was considered dangerous because it differed with health care professionals' warnings.



Varick said:


> But I do believe in *science*. I do believe in the *scientific method* and that *science* is the pursuit of truth. But it is the height of naivety, ignorance, lack of critical thinking, and lack of wisdom to think that *scientists* are above the same human flaws that every other human in every other endeavor in the world are. As with everything else, SCIENTISTS range form the bad to the great in their competence, knowledge, wisdom, and ethics. Scientists are just as corruptible as politicians, businessmen, teachers, police, electricians, gov't employees of every stripe, carpenters, IT techs, etc, etc. If you don't think that science has been corrupted by politics and ideology, then I have a bridge to sell you. Real cheap too, I PROMISE!


I'm not sure I believe that scientists are just as corruptible as politicians, but yes, individual scientists are not always right and do not always act ethically. As you say, you believe in science. We rely on the scientific community as a whole to eventually correct mistakes and to push back on individuals who have acted in their own interests. The scientific community pushed back against Dr. Wakefield's mistaken view about vaccines. The scientific community pushed back against evidence of cold fusion. The scientific community pushed back against attempted suppression of climate change science. The scientific community pushed back against one of the greatest scientist's (Einstein's) mistaken view of quantum mechanics.

I don't necessarily accept individual scientist's views or results from a single paper. I do tend to believe the consensus of the scientific community on mature issues.


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## Sad Al

Instead of magical switching to renewables, why don't we just switch to nuclear energy? And stop eating of course since over 90% of food is produced with fossil fuels.

When nuclear energy was introduced, emissions increased. Why would renewables cause emissions behave differently?

Back to the topic. I think viral infections have increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Were there flu epidemics before 1750?


----------



## science

mmsbls said:


> I agree that this is a serious issue.
> 
> My understanding is that youtube did not remove the video because the view differed from their own but rather the video's view was considered dangerous because it differed with health care professionals' warnings.
> 
> I'm not sure I believe that scientists are just as corruptible as politicians, but yes, individual scientists are not always right and do not always act ethically. As you say, you believe in science. We rely on the scientific community as a whole to eventually correct mistakes and to push back on individuals who have acted in their own interests. The scientific community pushed back against Dr. Wakefield's mistaken view about vaccines. The scientific community pushed back against evidence of cold fusion. The scientific community pushed back against attempted suppression of climate change science. The scientific community pushed back against one of the greatest scientist's (Einstein's) mistaken view of quantum mechanics.
> 
> I don't necessarily accept individual scientist's views or results from a single paper. I do tend to believe the consensus of the scientific community on mature issues.


Fundamentally it's about institutional and personal incentives. If we think very clearly and cynically about the incentives of a source of information, we can form some idea of how much "trust" we should place in them.


----------



## mmsbls

Sad Al said:


> Electricity is 20% of world energy and renewables need back up. Theoretical maximum for renewables is thus 10% of world energy. For many reasons it is less. Let's imagine a time when the world produces 7% of its energy with renewables. Are emissions minimal? No. On the contrary, emissions are bigger than ever because 'renewable' electricity grows the civilization, increases total world energy demand and then we burn more fossil fuels.


I think when you say renewables need back up, you mean renewable energy is not dispatchable because it is intermittent. That is true, but no one who studies climate change mitigation plans to rely on fossil fuel power to "back up" renewable energy. Renewable electricity can be stored either in batteries or converted to hydrogen for later usage. There is enormous research on both pathways, and the goal is to find a set of viable pathways to enable all energy usage to be produced through renewable zero carbon energy production.


----------



## science

Sad Al said:


> Instead of magical switching to renewables, why don't we just switch to nuclear energy? And stop eating of course since over 90% of food is produced with fossil fuels.
> 
> When nuclear energy was introduced, emissions increased. Why would renewables cause emissions behave differently?
> 
> Back to the topic. I think viral infections have increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Were there flu epidemics before 1750?


I don't know if you're serious, but it's fine time to mention _Plagues and Peoples_, one of those very good books that could reshape how a lot of people think about history. 
The same author's _The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society since AD 1000_ and _Keeping Together in Time: Dance and Drill in Human History_ were foundational to the way I've come to see the world.


----------



## Jacck

mmsbls said:


> I'm not sure I believe that scientists are just as corruptible as politicians, but yes, individual scientists are not always right and do not always act ethically. As you say, you believe in science. We rely on the scientific community as a whole to eventually correct mistakes and to push back on individuals who have acted in their own interests. The scientific community pushed back against Dr. Wakefield's mistaken view about vaccines. The scientific community pushed back against evidence of cold fusion. The scientific community pushed back against attempted suppression of climate change science. The scientific community pushed back against one of the greatest scientist's (Einstein's) mistaken view of quantum mechanics.
> I don't necessarily accept individual scientist's views or results from a single paper. I do tend to believe the consensus of the scientific community on mature issues.


The question of quantum mechanics is controversial to this day and even such scientific giants like Steven Weinberg became quantum apostates
https://www.sciencenews.org/blog/context/why-quantum-mechanics-might-need-overhaul
if there even is a consensus, it is not a very sound one

but even in medicine, the consensus can be harmful. I would quote the attitude of the medical establishment towards chronic Lyme disease as an example. I became ill with something similar myself, so I read all the latest scientific research about the topic, and the consensus is simply wrong.


----------



## mmsbls

Jacck said:


> The question of quantum mechanics is controversial to this day and even such scientific giants like Steven Weinberg became quantum apostates
> https://www.sciencenews.org/blog/context/why-quantum-mechanics-might-need-overhaul
> if there even is a consensus, it is not a very sound one


I wasn't referring to the interpretation of the quantum mechanical wave function as a basis for reality but rather the probabilistic nature of reality that is fundamental in quantum mechanics.



Jacck said:


> but even in medicine, the consensus can be harmful. I would quote the attitude of the medical establishment towards chronic Lyme disease as an example. I became ill with something similar myself, so I read all the latest scientific research about the topic, and the consensus is simply wrong.


Sure, scientific consensus is not always correct. Science must and does continuously question and update theories as a better approximation to reality.


----------



## Jacck

mmsbls said:


> Sure, scientific consensus is not always correct. Science must and does continuously question and update theories as a better approximation to reality.


yes, scientific consensus and theories can be wrong, but usually, the errors get corrected with time as evidence accumulates that make the old theories no longer tenable. This distinguishes science from ideology, which does not care about evidence and is based on dogma


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## Kieran

Off topic......


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> yes, scientific consensus and theories can be wrong, but usually, the errors get corrected with time as evidence accumulates that make the old theories no longer tenable. This distinguishes science from ideology, which does not care about evidence and is based on dogma


There are many ideologies on show in this thread - political ones - which are most culpable for derailing the thread. We know the virus is serious because it's made people crazy about Trump, when surely they never were before.

Spain has delayed its opening of restrictions, which means my sister in MAdrid will have to wait another indeterminate while before seeing her sons again. She's okay about that, most people are taking it on the chin, hoping the better days are soon incoming. In Ireland we have a strange situation - a government party and PM which came third in a two horse race in the general election on February 8th still hasn't been replaced, and are making all the big decisions. These are strange times indeed, but still, like everywhere else, we're also taking it on the chin, hoping better days, etc.

But eventually I think the majority of people will lose patience and want to go out - the virus isn't going to run away just because we're all hiding from it...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> But eventually I think the majority of people will lose patience and want to go out - the virus isn't going to run away just because we're all hiding from it...


yes, people are becoming impatient here too, but we gained time to implement the smart quarantines (the government claims that they can fully substitute full lockdowns, like they did in South Korea), people internalized some social distancing rules and will mostly keep those even after full reopening. And also summer is coming and there is evidence that the virus does not like summer. It will likely come back in autumn, but by then we will hopefully be more ready.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> yes, people are becoming impatient here too, but we gained time to implement the smart quarantines (the government claims that they can fully substitute full lockdowns, like they did in South Korea), people internalized some social distancing rules and will mostly keep those even after full reopening. And also summer is coming and there is evidence that the virus does not like summer. It will likely come back in autumn, but by then we will hopefully be more ready.


That's two important aspects of summer - that it might affect the virus, and also that being out in sunlight is more healthy than being frozen indoors. We're losing time, especially in countries like mine, where "summer" is a relative term, and we're never guaranteed a heatwave. Internalizing social distancing is good, if it's effective, but we may also be internalizing timidity and fear, and this will be catastrophic...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> That's two important aspects of summer - that it might affect the virus, and also that being out in sunlight is more healthy than being frozen indoors. We're losing time, especially in countries like mine, where "summer" is a relative term, and we're never guaranteed a heatwave. Internalizing social distancing is good, if it's effective, but we may also be internalizing timidity and fear, and this will be catastrophic...


of course vitamin D is important. But you do not need to wait for the sun, but can use supplements. You can buy D2 or D3. The D2 are of plant origin and not really that great. The best are drops of D3. You also need to take magnesium while vit D supplmenting, because it is required for its metabolism
https://www.easy-immune-health.com/magnesium-and-vitamin-d.html


----------



## elgar's ghost

It's still like something of a siege here. Thousands more new cases are being found daily due to increased testing and the total death rate is going down only a little at a time. We were told that the UK was something like 12 days behind Italy in terms of the virus's accumulative impact, yet 12 days ago Italy's reduction in numbers of both new cases and deaths seemed to place them in a more promising position than we in the UK are as of now.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> of course vitamin D is important. But you do not need to wait for the sun, but can use supplements. You can buy D2 or D3. The D2 are of plant origin and not really that great. The best are drops of D3. You also need to take magnesium while vit D supplmenting, because it is required for its metabolism
> https://www.easy-immune-health.com/magnesium-and-vitamin-d.html


I know these things, but not everybody can buy them. There are people who are struggling really bad now, they have young kids who are cooped up, no income, and these things would be a luxury. And we can't get exercise from a pill...


----------



## Art Rock

elgars ghost said:


> Thousands more new cases are being found daily due to increased testing and the total death rate is going down only a little at a time.


This appears a general feature: curves of daily deaths versus time are very asymmetric. Due to that tailing effect, the expected total death toll seems to be typically 3-4 times the cumulative death toll at the peak of the curve. For the UK, this would mean around 40000-50000 deaths eventually (versus 31241now).


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> It's still like something of a siege here. Thousands more new cases are being found daily due to increased testing and the total death rate is going down only a little at a time. We were told that the UK was something like 12 days behind Italy in terms of the virus's accumulative impact, yet 12 days ago Italy's reduction in numbers of both new cases and deaths seemed to place them in a more promising position than we in the UK are as of now.


a couple of weeks ago we discussed here the BBC article which claimed that the UK is going to have the worst death toll. If I remember correctly, the scientist used the speed, with which new cases appeared (ie the first derivative of the curve, and not the absolute numbers) to predict this. Maybe that is why your curve looks worse than that of Italy and Spain.


----------



## Jacck

Art Rock said:


> This appears a general feature: curves of daily deaths versus time are very asymmetric. Due to that tailing effect, the expected total death toll seems to be typically 3-4 times the cumulative death toll at the peak of the curve. For the UK, this would mean around 40000-50000 deaths eventually (versus 31241now).


the curves differ for different countries, compare for example the curves of UK, Switzerland and South Korea. You cant really use a curve from one country to predict the curve in another country. But I agree, that the left and right tails are not symmetric and the right tail tends to be longer. I remember the US IHME models from a month ago, that they had symmetric tails. The authors have corrected it since then.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Jacck said:


> a couple of weeks ago we discussed here the BBC article which claimed that the UK is going to have the worst death toll. If I remember correctly, the scientist used the speed, with which new cases appeared (ie the first derivative of the curve, and not the absolute numbers) to predict this. Maybe that is why your curve looks worse than that of Italy and Spain.


Unless I've missed something I would still like to know why that should be, though, even allowing for the metropolitan sprawl of London (and to a lesser extent Birmingham) accounting for a large percentage.

Well, at least our figures are now all-inclusive, I suppose - I'd rather have proper figures giving the bleaker picture rather than the previous and less representative hospitals-only system which risked raising false hopes about the overall reduction.


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> Unless I've missed something I would still like to know why that should be, though, even allowing for the metropolitan sprawl of London (and to a lesser extent Birmingham) accounting for a large percentage.
> 
> Well, at least our figures are now all-inclusive, I suppose - I'd rather have proper figures giving the bleaker picture rather than the previous and less representative hospitals-only system which risked raising false hopes about the overall reduction.


it is hard to tell, it might be a mixture of factors and climate and sun might be one of those. Italy and Spain are usually sunny and hot and the virus is already becoming supressed. On the other hand the UK has notoriously bad weather - cloudy, foggy, high humidity (I don't know if it is true, I have never been to UK, but people from there told me).


----------



## Art Rock

Jacck said:


> the curves differ for different countries, compare for example the curves of UK, Switzerland and South Korea. You cant really use a curve from one country to predict the curve in another country. But I agree, that the left and right tails are not symmetric and the right tail tends to be longer. I remember the US IHME models from a month ago, that they had symmetric tails. The authors have corrected it since then.


The general shape for UK, Switzerland, Italy and Spain is roughly similar, differing mainly in how close it's coming to the end. Comparisons with South Korea do not make much sense, as their daily death toll is simply too low anyway.

I've used this simple calculation to predict 120000-180000 deaths in the USA, when the experts were still claiming 60000 - a week or so later they upped their predictions into the same range. I think it's a pretty good tool to get a rough idea of what's coming.


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## Art Rock

Art Rock said:


> This appears a general feature: curves of daily deaths versus time are very asymmetric. Due to that tailing effect, the expected total death toll seems to be typically 3-4 times the cumulative death toll at the peak of the curve. For the UK, this would mean around 40000-50000 deaths eventually (versus 31241now).


I've checked what the experts' model says for the UK:

it predicts 40555 deaths, 30000-75000 for the 95% reliability interval.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Jacck said:


> it is hard to tell, it might be a mixture of factors and climate and sun might be one of those. Italy and Spain are usually sunny and hot and the virus is already becoming supressed. On the other hand the UK has notoriously bad weather - cloudy, foggy, high humidity (I don't know if it is true, I have never been to UK, but people from there told me).


What a bittersweet irony if that were true - since late March the weather here has for 90% of the time been excellent!


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## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> What a bittersweet irony if that were true - since late March the weather here has for 90% of the time been excellent!


or maybe weather plays no significant role
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-warm-hot-spread-study-pandemic-a9506201.html


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## Jacck

Coronavirus: Is the government really 'following the science'? - BBC Newsnight


----------



## science

It doesn't look like South Korea's opening back up has turned out well, and we're back to square one:

Clubs, bars in Seoul ordered to close after group infection in Itaewon. That's at least 40 new cases in one day, the most in literally a month. So we'll see.

BTW, any US vets who spent time in Korea will remember Itaewon, though it's cleaned up so much over the past 15 years that you wouldn't recognize it anymore. All the old, ahem, juicy bars have become Indian and Turkish restaurants. Even good bourgeois Koreans feel safe there nowadays.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

arpeggio said:


> Tell me you are joking.


Are you lucky and not seeing shortages already? I'm in the hometown of Wendy's. Numerous locations aren't selling burgers because they can't get hamburger. No. I'm not joking. I know there is a huge instinct to just assume my every comment is an attack on all of you and just knee-jerk gainsay anything I might say to be the next witty person to jump down the throat of the conservative. My comment was merely rhetorical - if this virus continues to hit farms and food processing facilities, where will we get our food? I am concerned.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

starthrower said:


> Who is suggesting shutting down all farms? This one is an indoor facility growing strawberries and cucumbers. Employees are in close proximity and 50 percent of the workforce is infected.


See post #4164.


----------



## Art Rock

science said:


> It doesn't look like South Korea's opening back up has turned out well, and we're back to square one:
> 
> Clubs, bars in Seoul ordered to close after group infection in Itaewon. That's at least 40 new cases in one day, the most in literally a month. So we'll see.
> 
> BTW, any US vets who spent time in Korea will remember Itaewon, though it's cleaned up so much over the past 15 years that you wouldn't recognize it anymore. All the old, ahem, juicy bars have become Indian and Turkish restaurants. Even good bourgeois Koreans feel safe there nowadays.


As someone stated: "Easing the restrictions does not mean the virus is gone. It means there is space for you again in intensive care if you don't behave sensibly".


----------



## science

As a thought experiment, let's say the situation were inverted. Rather than shutting down the economy to save lives, what if we were presented with the equivalent opportunity: we could grow the GDP by such-and-such percent, but 150k Americans would die. 

How much does "such and such percent" have to be for us to accept that deal?


----------



## science

Art Rock said:


> As someone stated: "Easing the restrictions does not mean the virus is gone. It means there is space for you again in intensive care if you don't behave sensibly".


Okay. I guess I'm glad you reminded me of that.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Sad Al said:


> Instead of magical switching to renewables, why don't we just switch to nuclear energy? And stop eating of course since over 90% of food is produced with fossil fuels.
> 
> When nuclear energy was introduced, emissions increased. Why would renewables cause emissions behave differently?
> 
> Back to the topic. I think viral infections have increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Were there flu epidemics before 1750?


You mean back when smallpox still killed people in large numbers repeatedly for much of recorded history?

But yes, there were flu epidemics prior to 1750. There are records of a disease that sounds a lot like the flu hitting the Middle East around 1200 BC. Another one in Greece around 412 BC. There was an influenza pandemic in 1510.

Measles in Africa at the end of the 16th century.

Yellow fever and measles in the mid 17th century in Central America and North America. Measles and yellow fever were recurring problems in the original 13 American colonies.

And that is just the viral infections.


----------



## Jacck

science said:


> As a thought experiment, let's say the situation were inverted. Rather than shutting down the economy to save lives, what if we were presented with the equivalent opportunity: we could grow the GDP by such-and-such percent, but 150k Americans would die.
> 
> How much does "such and such percent" have to be for us to accept that deal?


why exactly should I care about GDP, which is just an abstract meaningless quantity to me?
I think far more important that GDP is actually the structure of the underlying economy. My father always says "if a prostitutes sleeps with a customer, the GDP goes up by the amount he pays her, although no actual value was created". I feel much of the GDP today is of a similar kind. Many people work in meaningless jobs producing nothing. 
https://tinyurl.com/y9cb9r2d
The crisis will simply erase all these jobs


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## Kieran

science said:


> As a thought experiment, let's say the situation were inverted. Rather than shutting down the economy to save lives, what if we were presented with the equivalent opportunity: we could grow the GDP by such-and-such percent, but 150k Americans would die.
> 
> How much does "such and such percent" have to be for us to accept that deal?


There maybe people who'd entertain the wager, and seriously weigh up the cost, but I think most people are thinking of saving lives, health and sanity - by opening up, _but only when the hospitals are secure_. The lockdown is only delaying an inevitable and necessary date with the invisible savage, a date which will be uneventful for the overwhelming majority. I think precautions for the vulnerable will still be necessary until a cure/vaccine is discovered...


----------



## pianozach

Kieran said:


> There are many ideologies on show in this thread - political ones - which are most culpable for derailing the thread. We know the virus is serious because it's made people crazy about Trump, when surely they never were before. . . .


Um, wait. Hold it right there.

I don't know which people you're referring to that are *'crazy for Trump'*, the ones that are *'crazy for Trump'* or the ones that are *'crazy against Trump'*, but in reality it doesn't even matter, as the virus has not really changed Trump's popularity, his approval ratings, his disapproval ratings, or any other measure of liking or disliking him.

The only thing that has changed is the Mr. Trump now has a crisis on his hands that his strategies of bullying, suing, insulting, denial, and blaming do not affect. And the use of those strategies prior to the appearance of this virus compounded the crisis we're facing, as his hubris and ego affected his judgement, and he gutted agencies and fired experts that were in place that would have warned us and prepared us for a pandemic. Of course, even that may not have mattered much, as it's apparent he takes very little stock in experts, scientists, or strategists, instead relying on his own gut feelings and his "big brain".

The only thing that's different is that his ego-fueled rallies were cancelled, and he instead turned his daily press conferences into mutated versions of rallies, delivering far more disinformation, insults, and self-congratulatory praise.

The New Abnormal.


----------



## pianozach

Kieran said:


> That's two important aspects of summer - that it might affect the virus, and also that being out in sunlight is more healthy than being frozen indoors. We're losing time, especially in countries like mine, where "summer" is a relative term, and we're never guaranteed a heatwave. Internalizing social distancing is good, if it's effective, but we may also be internalizing timidity and fear, and this will be catastrophic...


*Ken Ring's weather forecast for Ireland for 2020*
ken ring, Weather, Weather forecast 04.01.2020

_This year may see higher rainfall totals than normal, according to Kiwi long-range weather forecaster, Ken Ring.

He told That's Farming that due to heavy rain, winds and a high tide, mid-January may be subject to floods in the northwest and south.

He predicts that the wettest months across the country may be February, parts of May and October, and most of November, which will, he added, may also see flooding.

"The number of wet days during the year may also be higher than normal especially in parts of the west and south-west."

"The driest spells this year and, therefore, the best times to holiday, may be late in August and September."

Ring predicts that maximum temperatures may be above normal, with the highest temperatures in August in central counties. He said that June and July may be cooler than normal.

"Although the total amount of sunshine is close to the average, September and October may be sunnier, with May and August expected to be dull."

"Wind speeds may be below average for most, with the strongest winds in early February and early November."_

https://www.thatsfarming.com/news/ken-ring-weather-forecast-for-ireland-for-2020


----------



## Kieran

pianozach said:


> Um, wait. Hold it right there.
> 
> I don't know which people you're referring to that are *'crazy for Trump'*, the ones that are *'crazy for Trump'* or the ones that are *'crazy against Trump'*, but in reality it doesn't even matter, as the virus has not really changed Trump's popularity, his approval ratings, his disapproval ratings, or any other measure of liking or disliking him.
> 
> The only thing that has changed is the Mr. Trump now has a crisis on his hands that his strategies of bullying, suing, insulting, denial, and blaming do not affect. And the use of those strategies prior to the appearance of this virus compounded the crisis we're facing, as his hubris and ego affected his judgement, and he gutted agencies and fired experts that were in place that would have warned us and prepared us for a pandemic. Of course, even that may not have mattered much, as it's apparent he takes very little stock in experts, scientists, or strategists, instead relying on his own gut feelings and his "big brain".
> 
> The only thing that's different is that his ego-fueled rallies were cancelled, and he instead turned his daily press conferences into mutated versions of rallies, delivering far more disinformation, insults, and self-congratulatory praise.
> 
> The New Abnormal.


This is what I'm talking about, buddy. Long rambling rants about Trump. It's been like this since before he became president, then you had the unDemocrats wanting to overthrow the system and bully the EC into doing what suits them, and since then we've seen nothing but mania and foaming at the mouth from people who hate him. Your politics is toxic over there and will continue to be that way until you finally put forward a candidate of substance and worth (not Biden :lol: ) to be elected in trump's place - and then we'll wait and see if the other side go bat sh1t.

Trump isn't the big story on this thread - the virus is. I posted a link a few weeks back with the new great superhero of the Democrats party praising trump, and it got ignored, because _that's _not the story. Well, as someone who isn't American, on a site that isn't American, it's boring.

Officially!


----------



## Kieran

pianozach said:


> *Ken Ring's weather forecast for Ireland for 2020*
> ken ring, Weather, Weather forecast 04.01.2020
> 
> _This year may see higher rainfall totals than normal, according to Kiwi long-range weather forecaster, Ken Ring.
> 
> He told That's Farming that due to heavy rain, winds and a high tide, mid-January may be subject to floods in the northwest and south.
> 
> He predicts that the wettest months across the country may be February, parts of May and October, and most of November, which will, he added, may also see flooding.
> 
> "The number of wet days during the year may also be higher than normal especially in parts of the west and south-west."
> 
> "The driest spells this year and, therefore, the best times to holiday, may be late in August and September."
> 
> Ring predicts that maximum temperatures may be above normal, with the highest temperatures in August in central counties. He said that June and July may be cooler than normal.
> 
> "Although the total amount of sunshine is close to the average, September and October may be sunnier, with May and August expected to be dull."
> 
> "Wind speeds may be below average for most, with the strongest winds in early February and early November."_
> 
> https://www.thatsfarming.com/news/ken-ring-weather-forecast-for-ireland-for-2020


This didn't cheer me up! :lol:

In fairness, that forecast reflects our normal, but the last two years we've had heatwaves, more so in 2018. The weather since corona arrived has been great, barely a drop of rain, and today is a scorcher (relative to our usual), but August and September are generally our best months, and September often outshines August...


----------



## eljr

pianozach said:


> Um, wait. Hold it right there.
> 
> I don't know which people you're referring to that are *'crazy for Trump'*, the ones that are *'crazy for Trump'* or the ones that are *'crazy against Trump'*, but in reality it doesn't even matter, as the virus has not really changed Trump's popularity, his approval ratings, his disapproval ratings, or any other measure of liking or disliking him.
> 
> The only thing that has changed is the Mr. Trump now has a crisis on his hands that his strategies of bullying, suing, insulting, denial, and blaming do not affect. And the use of those strategies prior to the appearance of this virus compounded the crisis we're facing, as his hubris and ego affected his judgement, and he gutted agencies and fired experts that were in place that would have warned us and prepared us for a pandemic. Of course, even that may not have mattered much, as it's apparent he takes very little stock in experts, scientists, or strategists, instead relying on his own gut feelings and his "big brain".
> 
> The only thing that's different is that his ego-fueled rallies were cancelled, and he instead turned his daily press conferences into mutated versions of rallies, delivering far more disinformation, insults, and self-congratulatory praise.
> 
> The New Abnormal.


Exactly

Trump followers actually believe the cause of this turmoil is the "left" rather than holding their golden idol accountable.

They would not tolerate the behavior they tolerant from Trump from their 13 year old son but they roar with approval to TRump. It's freakin sick.

It's a text book cult. People lost, disenfranchised, who found a counter culture group that accepts them.

And it has everything to do with everything a president touches so it's a big part of the awful pandemic in this country.


----------



## Kieran

eljr said:


> Exactly
> 
> Trump followers actually believe the cause of this turmoil is the "left" rather than holding their golden idol accountable.
> 
> They would not tolerate the behavior they tolerant from Trump from their 13 year old son but they roar with approval to TRump. It's freakin sick.
> 
> It's a text book cult. People lost, disenfranchised, who found a counter culture group that accepts them.
> 
> And it has everything to do with everything a president touches so it's a big part of the awful pandemic in this country.


That's just so wrong in so few lines. Which Trump supporters? I can't stand the man, but I knew this kind of precious, angry, entitled BS would happen as soon as he was elected, and it hasn't stopped since. How's about putting forward decent candidates to replace him? Would that be such a bad idea?

But also, how's about showing some sense and not dragging Trump into every conversation you ever have? It's boring, uninformative and generally lazy, often inaccurate, and when it gets to the stage where you're trivialising sex crimes because of politics, it becomes psycho. But it's _always _dragging this topic into the least interesting and helpful direction..


----------



## arpeggio

I am old Goldwater Conservative.

When I was a conservative I remember the complete disdain we had for liberals. As I got to actually know liberals I discovered that they were not as ill-informed as conservatives claimed they were.

This notion that liberals think we should close down farms is strange. The only thing about farms I have heard is concern that we may have a shortage of farmhands to work the fields. It is hard work. Instead of risking their lives for slave wages they may look for other employment. We have over 300 million people in the US. I am sure we can find a few thousand liberal nuts who think we should close down farms.

Just because we may disagree with one conservative does it mean we are against all conservatives.

I really do not know what else I can say.


----------



## Kieran

arpeggio said:


> I am old Goldwater Conservative.
> 
> When I was a conservative I remember the complete disdain we had for liberals. As I got to actually know liberals I discovered that they were not as ill-informed as conservatives claimed they were.


This is an art that's lost - listening to the other side. it's a gift that helps people learn, but nowadays it's easier to call people names, if they don't agree with us.

As for the farms, it'll become an issue. We had an incident in Ireland recently when a strawberry farm flew in 150 workers from Bulgaria to pick strawberries, something they do every year. They had advertised for resident workers to do it, but a hullaballoo ensued when it was reported that a private flight flew in migrant workers for seasonal work.

The kicker is, if they don't do the work, the crop is lost. The clock is ticking on these things and it'll become a serious problem if something isn't done...


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> That's just so wrong in so few lines. Which Trump supporters? I can't stand the man, but I knew this kind of precious, angry, entitled BS would happen as soon as he was elected, and it hasn't stopped since. How's about putting forward decent candidates to replace him? Would that be such a bad idea?
> 
> But also, how's about showing some sense and not dragging Trump into every conversation you ever have? It's boring, uninformative and generally lazy, often inaccurate, and when it gets to the stage where you're trivialising sex crimes because of politics, it becomes psycho. But it's _always _dragging this topic into the least interesting and helpful direction..


Well thanks for the directive. Gee, I had no idea what should be done until now. Thanks so much. Please continue to guide us whenever necessary.


----------



## Kieran

DaveM said:


> Well thanks for the directive. Gee, I had no idea what should be done until now. Thanks so much. Please continue to guide us whenever necessary.


Listen, I will. I get sick of this ongoing tantrum. And before you remind me that I'm not American, let me remind you, this isn't an American forum. Try not drag your political sleaze everywhere you go...


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> This is an art that's lost - listening to the other side. it's a gift that helps people learn, but nowadays it's easier to call people names, if they don't agree with us. As for the farms, it'll become an issue. We had an incident in Ireland recently when a strawberry farm flew in 150 workers from Bulgaria to pick strawberries, something they do every year. They had advertised for resident workers to do it, but a hullaballoo ensued when it was reported that a private flight flew in migrant workers for seasonal work. The kicker is, if they don't do the work, the crop is lost. The clock is ticking on these things and it'll become a serious problem if something isn't done...


Didn't Boris say something about immigrants from Eastern Europe stealing UK jobs? :lol:


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> Didn't Boris say something about immigrants from Eastern Europe stealing UK jobs? :lol:


The Republic of Ireland isn't in the UK...


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> Listen, I will. I get sick of this ongoing tantrum. And before you remind me that I'm not American, let me remind you, this isn't an American forum. Try not drag your political sleaze everywhere you go...


I'm so sorry you're feeling ill over this because, after all, it's all about you. Forthcoming we will try very hard not to upset you. In addition to being all-knowing, also, you apparently can read my mind. Amazing! Seems to me you're the one dragging in political sleaze right now.


----------



## Flamme

2day I took my mask off 4 the first time...It was very hot and I was cycling and couldnt breathe under...This is the time of blooming of plants and weeds and they irritate my sinuses. I cant risk suffocation


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> 2day I took my mask off 4 the first time...It was very hot and I was cycling and couldnt breathe under...This is the time of blooming of plants and weeds and they irritate my sinuses. I cant risk suffocation


This may become a condition for returning to work for a lot of people, that they wear masks. But where are they going to get them? And are they reusable? We keep hearing of how there's a shortage of masks in the hospitals. What's the story in Serbia? you have to wear them?

Weren't they supposedly unreliable?


----------



## Jacck

Kieran said:


> This may become a condition for returning to work for a lot of people, that they wear masks. But where are they going to get them? And are they reusable? We keep hearing of how there's a shortage of masks in the hospitals. What's the story in Serbia? you have to wear them?
> 
> Weren't they supposedly unreliable?


people here made home-made masks (a lot of women can still sew). The purpose of a mask is not to protect you from others, but to protect others from you. But everybody has to wear it to erase the sigma. And a simple cloth mask does that. You can simply wash it, iron it and reuse it.


----------



## Flamme

Theoretically we should have 1 mask per day, if they are made of paper...But in my company we got some made out of cloth so U can wash them and use them many times.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Are you lucky and not seeing shortages already? I'm in the hometown of Wendy's. Numerous locations aren't selling burgers because they can't get hamburger. No. I'm not joking. I know there is a huge instinct to just assume my every comment is an attack on all of you and just knee-jerk gainsay anything I might say to be the next witty person to jump down the throat of the conservative. My comment was merely rhetorical - if this virus continues to hit farms and food processing facilities, where will we get our food? I am concerned.


Yes, the subject is a valid one.

The meatpacking plant, with poor people working in close proximity to each other, as well is in intimate contact with a major food source, has been a "hot spot", and just like throwing a pebble into a pond, the ripples continue out through supply lines, friends and neighbors, churches, parties, and plenty of other things.

It won't be long before they figure out that there are OTHER kinds of food distribution sources that may be affected.

*Souplantation*, a buffet-style restaurant chain with 97 locations is closing all of its restaurants permanently (rather than simply changing its business model from self-serve to wait staff). That's one.

*Wendy's*, a fast-food restaurant chain specializing in hamburgers, is having supply-line issues getting hamburger meat.

In *California* we have a large agricultural component to our economy, and it relies on poorly paid itinerant workers, many of which are seasonal immigrants or undocumented workers. Picking crops is often accomplished through manual labor, people working in close proximity to each other.

In other parts of the country I've seen headlines about pig farmers facing "putting down" their droves of hogs, or farmers plowing crops under, or setting rotting piles of potatoes on fire.

However, just as with many other COVID-19 issues, there are two sides to claims that we're facing a meat supply crisis. *Smithfield*, the giant meat packing plant in the news, claims we're close to the edge on meat supply. That doesn't ring true: We have copious amounts of meat in cold storage around the country as a result of increased production, flat demand and the Trump Administration's trade war. And we already overproduce for the sake of export - up to 30% of the pork produced in this country is destined for overseas markets but could be rerouted to shore up domestic supplies. Our 'consolidated' food industries are literally swimming in profit.

The issue, however, is more about food supply disruption rather than food shortages. And even before coronavirus swept across the globe, 135 million people in 55 countries faced acute hunger, mainly because of conflict, climate change and economic crises. COVID-19 is is potentially catastrophic for millions who are already hanging on the edge.

Yes, a food shortage is actually an issue that we should be addressing NOW, rather than when its effects are at "end game".

So, *Wendy's* and *Souplantation* are 1st world food shortage problems, but worldwide we're going to have people going hungry. It's not just getting the food, it's also affording food.

We need to start the discussion about our food supply NOW. It's a complex issue, and we don't need kneejerk reactions by the government, the media, the conspiracy theorists, the rich folks, and the YouTube contributors.


----------



## pianozach

science said:


> As a thought experiment, let's say the situation were inverted. Rather than shutting down the economy to save lives, what if we were presented with the equivalent opportunity: we could grow the GDP by such-and-such percent, but 150k Americans would die.
> 
> How much does "such and such percent" have to be for us to accept that deal?





Kieran said:


> There maybe people who'd entertain the wager, and seriously weigh up the cost, but I think most people are thinking of saving lives, health and sanity - by opening up, _but only when the hospitals are secure_. The lockdown is only delaying an inevitable and necessary date with the invisible savage, a date which will be uneventful for the overwhelming majority. I think precautions for the vulnerable will still be necessary until a cure/vaccine is discovered...


Maybe?

It's been done.

Benefit/Risk cost analysis.

I'm not going to bother tracking down a source, but I'm 100% positive that the automobile industry has done this. They have, in the past, used a cheaper and less safe part in their manufacturing even though they are aware that using that part could result in death for a consumer of their product

The speculation is that the money lost in civil lawsuits over a predicted number of deaths is not as great as the money gained in using a less expensive part.


----------



## DaveM

My family and I have been going to a Souplantation for decades. I was there as recently as February. There hasn’t been anything quite like it. Unfortunately, self-serve restaurants would be among the last to be able to return to work, if at all.


----------



## Flamme

Few days ago a guy asked me about my job and lamented his as a cook because in his establishment they will cut the number of sitting places from 210 ppl on 50 tables 2 only 50 becaue they go from 4 sits 2 only 1 per table...Cooks had a very decent pays here as well as waiters but now its all under querstion mark1


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> Few days ago a guy asked me about my job and lamented his as a cook because in his establishment they will cut the number of sitting places from 210 ppl on 50 tables 2 only 50 becaue they go from 4 sits 2 only 1 per table...Cooks had a very decent pays here as well as waiters but now its all under querstion mark1


It's a big problem. I have a trip to Italy scheduled for September and though it may not go ahead, if it does I expect to be greeted by devastation in the food industries, with so many favourite places lost. I hope not, but i expect so, and though having only 50 people instead of 210 is better than what they have now in your friends place, it might not be enough to cover costs.

In Dublin, there's a plan to make one of our busiest streets in the city for traffic pedestrianised, so the eating places can spill out onto the street. It'll be a long battle but it's a very important one...


----------



## Kieran

And by the way, a possible issue with opening up countries for tourism in July, August or September is that the countries may have quarantine rules on either end, so if I go to Italy, it maybe that Ireland has brought in a 14 day quarantine period for anyone flying in from Italy - and vice versa may apply also, rendering any tourism effectively obsolete...


----------



## Jacck

Northern California official ousted after saying elderly, ill, homeless should be left to die in pandemic
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-01/northern-california-city-official-after-saying
he just spelled out loud what many of these conservatives actually think
I am sure that he considers himself to be a good Christian. What would Christ think about him? He tried to heal the sick and help the poor and homeless.


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## philoctetes

Around here we mighty consider Turnage a libertarian, even if he he fits some conservative values... he is a construction mogul so obvoiusly pro-growth, not unlike your protestors in OC... ---- Antioch is kind of a strange town and I would not want to live there... like a lot of interior CA communities they have too many civil and financial issues... some guy who brings homes construction to the area can be very successful, whether lib or con...

I suggest you might learn more about California by reading the California press... the NYT has no clue about anything in the Western states... liberalism and conservatism can mean much different things ... and there are really more than just two political bins in the real world... when others don't force us into choosing by reduction... for all our claims to diversity - however it happens - our political process destroys it...


----------



## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> I suggest you might learn more about California by reading the California press... the NYT has no clue about anything in the Western states... liberalism and conservatism can mean much different things ... and there are really more than just two political bins in the real world... when others don't force us into choosing by reduction...


I was L.A.Times, but it does not matter. I think that social darwinism (ie a direct opposite of actual Christian values) is the actual main ideology of the Republican party. Ken Turnage II only said it loud. I am sure that Ron DeSantis and many others think the same.


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## philoctetes

I don't defend Turnage at all I'm saying the California politics is more spectral than discrete, varies by graylevels and his opinion would not necessarily be an exclusively conservative one among younger people... which should be obvious anyway... so for me his youthful irresponsibility is a more general issue as a civic leader... the most observant would notice that charm and public exposure often carry more weight than anything else in California, where being a super-society makes it quite shallow...

'I think that social darwinism...."

I hope you know that California is full of cars driven by liberals with "Darwin" decorations on them... ya know? they're not referring to natural evolution, it's a social / political / anti-Christian statement... killing the old or weak is NOT an exclusively conservative goal... it's just human arrogance.. typically among the young, sometimes with addled old folks who think they are cool...


----------



## pianozach

science said:


> As a thought experiment, let's say the situation were inverted. Rather than shutting down the economy to save lives, what if we were presented with the equivalent opportunity: we could grow the GDP by such-and-such percent, but 150k Americans would die.
> 
> How much does "such and such percent" have to be for us to accept that deal?





Kieran said:


> It's a big problem. I have a trip to Italy scheduled for September and though it may not go ahead, if it does I expect to be greeted by devastation in the food industries, with so many favourite places lost. I hope not, but i expect so, and though having only 50 people instead of 210 is better than what they have now in your friends place, it might not be enough to cover costs.
> 
> In Dublin, there's a plan to make one of our busiest streets in the city for traffic pedestrianised, so the eating places can spill out onto the street. It'll be a long battle but it's a very important one...


I expect that restaurant prices will rise sharply after all this 'opens' back up. As there may be many restaurant casualties, not only will there be fewer restaurants, the ones that survive will have greatly diminished seating capacity. Therefore the prices will rise in an attempt to compensate for the drop in the number of customers.

Dining out will become a pastime for the more wealthy among us.


----------



## philoctetes

I say if restaurants can't adjust to providing meals for locals at locally affordable prices then I don't care if they stay in business... those are always risky business, location-dependent, and someone else will "evolve"... same for BnB operators, they can lower their rents and *rent control* happens just like that... tourism-dependent modes of business operation are no longer essential to anybody until "further notice"


----------



## philoctetes

True story, back in March I spoke to a passing couple on the local trail, commenting on our bandanas, when the old man (probably my age but not as healthy) who has one of them Quaker type beards (his wife always in full-length skirts) suddenly pseudo-quoted some kind of gibberish about "those fools who" and when he finished, he cocked his head wisely and said "-Darwin"..

Not talking to them no more... the arrogant and smug are not my friends...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

arpeggio said:


> I am old Goldwater Conservative.
> 
> When I was a conservative I remember the complete disdain we had for liberals. As I got to actually know liberals I discovered that they were not as ill-informed as conservatives claimed they were.
> 
> This notion that liberals think we should close down farms is strange. The only thing about farms I have heard is concern that we may have a shortage of farmhands to work the fields. It is hard work. Instead of risking their lives for slave wages they may look for other employment. We have over 300 million people in the US. I am sure we can find a few thousand liberal nuts who think we should close down farms.
> 
> Just because we may disagree with one conservative does it mean we are against all conservatives.
> 
> I really do not know what else I can say.


Read 4164. I never said anybody was calling for shutting farms. I was musing about where we would get our food if farm shutdowns were more widespread. Your default is to read the worst interpretation into everything I post.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> This may become a condition for returning to work for a lot of people, that they wear masks. But where are they going to get them? And are they reusable? We keep hearing of how there's a shortage of masks in the hospitals. What's the story in Serbia? you have to wear them?
> 
> Weren't they supposedly unreliable?


We were lied to. It never made sense that they would protect Healthcare workers but not ordinary people.


----------



## Flamme

This corona chan made me very volatile...I lost 2 ppl I relied on the most, so its a double blow, when I could not withstand a singular 1...There is moral of this story in the end but its effin hard...


----------



## Art Rock

Medical-grade masks protect (e.g. healthcare workers), but they are too expensive/rare for the general public.

Ordinary masks give very little extra protection (maybe 10%) if you contact someone with the virus. If you contact someone with the virus who also wears an ordinary mask, protection goes up.

At least here in the Netherlands, experts advice against wearing masks unless in situations where you can not practice social distancing (e.g. trains), that social distancing being a far more effective protection.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> Northern California official ousted after saying elderly, ill, homeless should be left to die in pandemic
> https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-01/northern-california-city-official-after-saying
> he just spelled out loud what many of these conservatives actually think
> I am sure that he considers himself to be a good Christian. What would Christ think about him? He tried to heal the sick and help the poor and homeless.


Seriously, moderators? People can post crap like this on here? That many conservatives just want to let people die? Whatever.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

The title of this thread clearly needs to be modified to, "How serious is the new coronavirus, and what can it teach us about just how evil Trump and conservatives are?"

The moderation of this thread is pathetic.


----------



## pianozach

philoctetes said:


> I say if restaurants can't adjust to providing meals for locals at locally affordable prices then I don't care if they stay in business... those are always risky business, location-dependent, and someone else will "evolve"... same for BnB operators, they can lower their rents and *rent control* happens just like that... tourism-dependent modes of business operation are no longer essential to anybody until "further notice"


Well, it's not their fault that running a restaurant is often a low profit margin business. And it's not their fault that they will be limited to half or a third of their former customers at a time. Sure, they'll same a little overhead by reducing the size of their wait staff and inventory, but they'll also be taking a cut in income. The only way to stay in business is to either cut costs or raise prices. For most, there's very little more they can do to cut costs, as they're already legally allowed to underpay wait staff (the "tips" clause). Many mom'n'pop restaurants are constantly on the verge of bankruptcy as it is.

Restaurants are already closing, and many will shutter up in the coming year, and this time there won't be as many entrepreneurs willing to risk opening up a replacement restaurant to fill the void.

Capitalism. Supply and demand. Fewer tables, higher prices.

Yeah they'll lose customers such as yourself, but you were cut when their capacities were halved. And there will be a loss of jobs.

And there will be other ripple effects, such as vacant retail space. That means less income for the landlords, which is simply written off as losses on their tax returns, and less income which can be taxed. Less tax money kills cities . . . read up on Flint, Michigan prior to their water problem. The short version is that their tax base slowly shriveled up over the years, and the city couldn't provide services nor pay its bills. This inadvertently caused their problem of a contaminated water supply, as the state stepped in, appointed an "Emergency Manager", whose authority superceded that of the city council and planning commission. The EM, in an effort to save money, changed the city's water supply without input from experts, which would have undoubtedly advised some safety precautions. As it was the new water supply was far more corrosive than their previous water supply and started eating away the lead pipe infrastructure.

Everyone seems to have kneejerk reactions to problems without stopping to think that everything affects everything else.

The game of CIVILIZATION oversimplifies this wonderfully . . . in order to succeed you have to balance all of the aspects of a society: Agriculture, industry, science, commerce, entertainment, subsidies, employment, healthcare, etc.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Seriously, moderators? People can post crap like this on here? That many conservatives just want to let people die? Whatever.


is that not actually true? It is implicitly contained in what they say and do
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11404...n-congressman-americans-die-outbreak-economy/
They worship on the altar of the false God of Mammon and that human sacrifices need to be made to appease this god. They have said it many times and it is easy to google such statements. They do not really care about the poor or sick. Trump even wanted to further slash medicare, medicaid and social security.

"No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money."
Matthew 6:24


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

This is now just a blatant political thread with a thin veneer of discussing the coronavirus. No non-partisan posts can be made without people immediately responding about how it shows conservatives are evil and worship Trump.


----------



## KenOC

Kieran said:


> I know these things, but not everybody can buy them. There are people who are struggling really bad now, they have young kids who are cooped up, no income, and these things would be a luxury. And we can't get exercise from a pill...


As was posted earlier, Vitamin D is getting tested for an apparent ability to lessen the mortality rate of coronavirus pneumonia. And it's quite cheap, far from a luxury. I bought Vitamin D3 from Amazon, a year's supply, for $15.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Art Rock said:


> Medical-grade masks protect (e.g. healthcare workers), but they are too expensive/rare for the general public.
> 
> Ordinary masks give very little extra protection (maybe 10%) if you contact someone with the virus. If you contact someone with the virus who also wears an ordinary mask, protection goes up.
> 
> At least here in the Netherlands, experts advice against wearing masks unless in situations where you can not practice social distancing (e.g. trains), that social distancing being a far more effective protection.


People can be asymptomatic and infected. So there are obvious advantages of widespread mask wearing.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> This is now just a blatant political thread with a thin veneer of discussing the coronavirus. No non-partisan posts can be made without people immediately responding about how it shows conservatives are evil and worship Trump.


These ethical considerations are part of the discussion of the coronavirus. Ken Turnage II just said out loud what many only think. And not just in the US. We have them here too


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Seriously, moderators? People can post crap like this on here? That many conservatives just want to let people die? Whatever.


Um, yeah, it's part of the conversation.

Many conservatives are pushing the "herd immunity" narrative. I thought you were one of them that bought into herd immunity, but I'm not gonna go back and re-read 4200 comments in this thread to verify whether you were a herd immunity guy.

Anyway, there are plenty of 'leaders' of one sort or another (politicians, pundits, pastors, corporatists, etc.) that have publicly advocated a "herd immunity" approach as the solution to this pandemic. There have even been reports of "Coronavirus parties", like measles and chickenpox parties of the the 40s, 50s, and 60s.

The whole thing with "Herd Immunity" is that we let the infection "run its course", with a high infection rate, and a high death rate, and it will make the survivors immune. So far, there's no conclusive evidence that we could develop an immunity to SARS-CoV-2 any more than we could develop immunity to "The Flu" (H1N1).

But even if we DO develop a herd immunity, the cost would be high . . . the elderly, the sick, the immunocompromised, the poor, the injured, and the homeless will make up a vast majority of the victims, although we're seeing some surprising infections of other demographics, and some surprising other effects of the virus.

When you advocate for "herd immunity", as many conservatives do, you are advocating "culling the herd", "letting nature take its course", and being fine with sacrificing grandma, your diabetic cousin Ernie, that old country music star, the latina who works at the meat packing plant, and the smelly guy that sleeps under the overpass.

The problem is that early "Herd Immunity" against COVID-19 is a dangerous misconception:

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19 without a vaccine, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune.

Right now, with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day in the US, it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

Or maybe we'll develop a vaccine, and maybe we'll offer it free of charge to everyone, so that everyone, even those that cannot afford to pay for a vaccine, will get one.

We ALL need to get this through our thick heads: *This pandemic is still only beginning to unfold*.


----------



## mountmccabe

DaveM said:


> I'm trying to understand how often we are seeing people who are at close quarters getting this disease and yet 2 people, 1 close to the president and the other close to the V.P., have contracted it and yet, it has not run through the West Wing of the Whitehouse where people are at close quarters and are not wearing masks. Or maybe it is next...


The White House actually has measures in place to test everyone, do contact tracing, and so on.

"We have put in place the guidelines that our experts have put forward to keep this building safe, which means contact tracing," McEnany told reporters during Friday's news briefing. "All of the recommended guidelines we have for businesses that have essential workers, we are now putting them in place here in the White House. So as America reopens safely, the White House is continuing to operate safely."


She says America is reopening safely, but the country as a whole is not anywhere near able to do testing at the level they're doing in the White House. Not that everybody in the country should be tested every day (or whatever), but that is how it's possible she didn't infect the rest of the West Wing.

Of course maybe they're not testing everyone that frequently either. So it's possible she got infected and spread the virus for a few days before getting that positive test back. Of course the White House has the resources to retest/quarantine everyone she came in contact with.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> Um, yeah, it's part of the conversation.
> 
> Many conservatives are pushing the "herd immunity" narrative. I thought you were one of them that bought into herd immunity, but I'm not gonna go back and re-read 4200 comments in this thread to verify whether you were a herd immunity guy.
> 
> Anyway, there are plenty of 'leaders' of one sort or another (politicians, pundits, pastors, corporatists, etc.) that have publicly advocated a "herd immunity" approach as the solution to this pandemic. There have even been reports of "Coronavirus parties", like measles and chickenpox parties of the the 40s, 50s, and 60s.
> 
> The whole thing with "Herd Immunity" is that we let the infection "run its course", with a high infection rate, and a high death rate, and it will make the survivors immune. So far, there's no conclusive evidence that we could develop an immunity to SARS-CoV-2 any more than we could develop immunity to "The Flu" (H1N1).
> 
> But even if we DO develop a herd immunity, the cost would be high . . . the elderly, the sick, the immunocompromised, the poor, the injured, and the homeless will make up a vast majority of the victims, although we're seeing some surprising infections of other demographics, and some surprising other effects of the virus.
> 
> When you advocate for "herd immunity", as many conservatives do, you are advocating "culling the herd", "letting nature take its course", and being fine with sacrificing grandma, your diabetic cousin Ernie, that old country music star, the latina who works at the meat packing plant, and the smelly guy that sleeps under the overpass.
> 
> The problem is that early "Herd Immunity" against COVID-19 is a dangerous misconception:
> 
> To reach herd immunity for COVID-19 without a vaccine, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune.
> 
> Right now, with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day in the US, it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.
> 
> Or maybe we'll develop a vaccine, and maybe we'll offer it free of charge to everyone, so that everyone, even those that cannot afford to pay for a vaccine, will get one.
> 
> We ALL need to get this through our thick heads: *This pandemic is still only beginning to unfold*.


Many conservatives are pushing the herd immunity thing, huh? Like that radical right wing country of Sweden?
I am not one who had been pushing the herd immunity line. But if pushing the herd immunity line is conservative and means you just want to let people die, square that with Sweden. 
What I hate is demonizing people who have a different opinion when nobody on here really knows, and are relying on the opinions of others.


----------



## KenOC

The question came up of the value of a human life. There is much posturing about this issue, but in fact it permeates a good part of public policy.

Certainly we accept lots of deaths through implicit benefit/cost tradeoffs. For example, we accept thousands of highway fatalities each year that could be prevented by simply lowering speed limits. But we don’t do that because we consider these excess deaths “worth it” in terms of convenience, time, and economics.

We could probably push the fatality rate to near zero if we required each car to be proceeded by a man on foot swinging a lantern and waving a red flag, as used to be the case in some places.


----------



## philoctetes

.......................................................................... blah


----------



## philoctetes

The people doing all the lecturing here are not making any sense... and the moderators need to put a stop to it... I know cognitive dissonance is not a crime, it should be discouraged from assuming influence...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

I won't hold my breath. Another "warning" and then the bashing of conservatives will start back up in no more than a page later.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> These ethical considerations are part of the discussion of the coronavirus. Ken Turnage II just said out loud what many only think. And not just in the US. We have them here too


Buddy, you sound like a religious cultist, and a bit emotional, too. Have you ever actually sat down with your conservative pals and had an honest conversation? and do you say stuff like this to them? And they say stuff like, Leftists are absurd identitarians who prefer the enemies of the state, to the state?

Or do you's have a sensible conversation, like grown-ups do, and see that among conservatives there are actually people who have great compassion, but they just express it differently?

Or are you a person who'd never make friends with a conservative, because they're "nazis"?

Seriously, this thread is hilarious at this stage. It's a parody of a conversation about the virus. It seems impossible to get two inches into it without getting dragged through 3 whole pages of TDS....


----------



## DaveM

mountmccabe said:


> The White House actually has measures in place to test everyone, do contact tracing, and so on.
> 
> "We have put in place the guidelines that our experts have put forward to keep this building safe, which means contact tracing," McEnany told reporters during Friday's news briefing. "All of the recommended guidelines we have for businesses that have essential workers, we are now putting them in place here in the White House. So as America reopens safely, the White House is continuing to operate safely."
> 
> 
> She says America is reopening safely, but the country as a whole is not anywhere near able to do testing at the level they're doing in the White House. Not that everybody in the country should be tested every day (or whatever), but that is how it's possible she didn't infect the rest of the West Wing.
> 
> Of course maybe they're not testing everyone that frequently either. So it's possible she got infected and spread the virus for a few days before getting that positive test back. Of course the White House has the resources to retest/quarantine everyone she came in contact with.


I know what you're saying and the frequent testing and contact tracing may help going forward, but we have two people who were at close quarters with others in the West Wing for several days while they were potentially capable of transmitting the virus and nobody is wearing masks. We know that those who work there put in long hours as well. Also, it seems as if the thinking there is that frequent testing obviates the need for masks, but it doesn't. After all, it's not as if once one is tested and found positive, there is reliable, available treatment. If I was working there, I would feel better if the emphasis was on preventing my getting the virus rather than making sure I know it when I get it.


----------



## Kieran

philoctetes said:


> I say if restaurants can't adjust to providing meals for locals at locally affordable prices then I don't care if they stay in business... those are always risky business, location-dependent, and someone else will "evolve"... same for BnB operators, they can lower their rents and *rent control* happens just like that... tourism-dependent modes of business operation are no longer essential to anybody until "further notice"


Well, they're going to have to make huge adjustments, that's for sure, because whether we like it or not, some countries rely upon tourism, but don't want to just serve up fast food. The thing here is, the market will level them out anyway, because even tourists will be on a budget this season. And speaking of rents, one of our landmark cafes in Dublin, Bewleys Cafe, a famous haunt on the poshest of streets, closed permanently the other day because they couldn't afford the rent of €1.5m per annum.

Yep, you read that right. it would be cheaper to have their cafe on the Champs Elysee, Fifth Avenue, or Regents Street.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0506/1136899-bewleys-grafton-street/


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> is that not actually true? It is implicitly contained in what they say and do
> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11404...n-congressman-americans-die-outbreak-economy/
> They worship on the altar of the false God of Mammon and that human sacrifices need to be made to appease this god. They have said it many times and it is easy to google such statements. They do not really care about the poor or sick. Trump even wanted to further slash medicare, medicaid and social security.
> 
> "No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money."
> Matthew 6:24


I'll echo DaveM and point out you are not an American and only know what you read in papers and so aren't really qualified to knowingly judge political situations in this country. You don't know the situation on the ground. I spent the first 2 decades of my life in Northern California and found most people there very friendly and willing to give you the shirt off their back if you needed it. My mother and much of her family still lives there, and she and my father grew up there. Claiming they want to just let people die is incredibly uninformed and just nasty and mean-spirited. I don't comment on the politics in your country for that reason.


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> is that not actually true? It is implicitly contained in what they say and do
> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11404...n-congressman-americans-die-outbreak-economy/
> They worship on the altar of the false God of Mammon and that human sacrifices need to be made to appease this god. They have said it many times and it is easy to google such statements. They do not really care about the poor or sick. Trump even wanted to further slash medicare, medicaid and social security.
> 
> "No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money."
> Matthew 6:24


Right, but the liberals love abortion. They're so caring, they kill 'em before they get to breathe.

Is this what you mean? Is this the direction we want the thread to go?

Because it's heading that direction, without casting *any light at all* on the virus...


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> We were lied to. It never made sense that they would protect Healthcare workers but not ordinary people.


That subject was one I posted quite a bit about, long ago, at the beginning of this thread. Another falsehood is the line: You wear a mask to protect others, not yourself. Balderdash! Of course, protection from a mask is partly dependent on the quality of the mask, but it also depends on the circumstance. If one is talking about spread of the virus from the mere act of breathing or talking then IMO wearing a reasonably good mask at least provides some protection to the wearer.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Many conservatives are pushing the herd immunity thing, huh? Like that radical right wing country of Sweden?
> I am not one who had been pushing the herd immunity line. But if pushing the herd immunity line is conservative and means you just want to let people die, square that with Sweden.
> What I hate is demonizing people who have a different opinion when nobody on here really knows, and are relying on the opinions of others.


Yes, here in the US many conservatives _*are*_ pushing the "Herd Immunity" thing.

Worldwide it is NOT exclusive to conservatives, but here in the US it IS mostly conservatives pushing this narrative.

Now, the builder formerly the chair of the planning commission in Antioch held a non-partisan position, and it appears that he is more of a Libertarian than a Republican. In the UK it was conservatives pushing the concept.

And, as everything seems to be interrelated, it seems that there's also an anti-vaccine narrative that has crept into the Republican Party mainstream, calling it a "pro-choice" thing, touting that being pro-vaccination takes away a parent's right to decide what's best for their child.

If anything, this pandemic has exposed many of the Republican Party narratives as hypocrisy.

Granted, the Democratic Party has their own share of hypocrisies, but *most* of them are not a life and death issue.

As for Herd Immunity, here's a link to an article published *DECEMBER 11, 2019* by Global Health Now, a publication from the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Obviously, the new pandemic is not mentioned, and that's why I'm pointing this out . . . this article was written without this coronavirus pandemic creating any kind of bias on the subject.

https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2019-12/myth-about-herd-immunity


----------



## Kieran

pianozach said:


> As for Herd Immunity, here's a link to an article published *DECEMBER 11, 2019* by Global Health Now, a publication from the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
> 
> Obviously, the new pandemic is not mentioned, and that's why I'm pointing this out . . . this article was written without this coronavirus pandemic creating any kind of bias on the subject.
> 
> https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2019-12/myth-about-herd-immunity


From the exact same website:



> Early data doesn't indicate that a large percentage of populations have developed antibodies, which would raise hopes of eventually achieving levels needed for herd immunity, added Mike Ryan, head of WHO's emergencies program.


https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2020-04/problem-antibody-tests

This is back when the WHO still believed in second infections etc...


----------



## Flamme

Must clarify I DIDNT lose any1 in corona but I lost my mum and a close friend, 1st by passing away and 2econd by just being a d-bag in months b4 and during corona...


----------



## KenOC

pianozach said:


> Yes, here in the US many conservatives _*are*_ pushing the "Herd Immunity" thing.


I don't know what this means. Certainly, absent an effective vaccine, we'd all better hope that we can achieve some sort of herd immunity without too much cost. This seems to me unrelated to any sort of politics, and not an idea that anybody's "pushing".


----------



## mountmccabe

DaveM said:


> I know what you're saying and the frequent testing and contact tracing may help going forward, but we have two people who were at close quarters with others in the West Wing for several days while they were potentially capable of transmitting the virus and nobody is wearing masks. We know that those who work there put in long hours as well. Also, it seems as if the thinking there is that frequent testing obviates the need for masks, but it doesn't. After all, it's not as if once one is tested and found positive, there is reliable, available treatment. If I was working there, I would feel better if the emphasis was on preventing my getting the virus rather than making sure I know it when I get it.


Oh, I agree, I would not be comfortable working like that.

The best situation is having testing and contact tracing, and using masks and social distancing to reduce cases in the first place.

I've seen people saying that their masks obviate the need for social distancing, whereas of course they are complimentary. The White House is one step worse than that.


----------



## DaveM

I think we have to be careful about using the term ‘conservatives’ loosely. Obviously, it has traditionally been used to designate a political group just as the term ‘liberals’ has been. But, if you think of it, now it is being used, inaccurately and unfairly, to describe those with a belief system similar to our president and his followers when it comes to science, how to manage the pandemic and IMO what are some whacky belief systems in general.

Unfortunately, IMO, the true conservatives of the past which includes a lot of bright people and leaders, have been marginalized and don’t have much of a voice these days. Their voice is not that of this administration or Fox News. This is not meant to be political statement. On the contrary, to me being a conservative is a way of, or approach to, life in general, not just a tendency to vote a certain way.


----------



## Jacck

DaveM said:


> I think we have to be careful about using the term 'conservatives' loosely. Obviously, it has traditionally been used to designate a political group just as the term 'liberals' has been. But, if you think of it, now it is being used, inaccurately and unfairly, to describe those with a belief system similar to our president and his followers when it comes to science, how to manage the pandemic and IMO what are some whacky belief systems in general. Unfortunately, IMO, the true conservatives of the past which includes a lot of bright people and leaders, have been marginalized and don't have much of a voice these days. Their voice is not that of this administration or Fox News. This is not meant to be political statement. On the contrary, to me being a conservative is a way of, or approach to, life in general, not just a tendency to vote a certain way.


if you look at the US from a distance, then what you see as conservatives are some really bad people. What has conservatism produced in the last 20 years? Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Bolton - starting wars, opening illegal prisons in Guantamo, justifying torture etc. And now trumpism based on lies, hate and fostering divisions. What have they actually done for the American people or for the US democracy? I have not seen a single positive thing come out of a Republican government my entire life. They are just a hindrance for progress, like the slavers were in their time. And by progress I do not mean any leftist liberal ideas. I mean implementing things like universal healthcare and free education. Actually starting doing something for the people, not just for the rich class.


----------



## Kieran

Some good news personally is that an elderly friend - 75 years old - 5 years clean of cancer, contracted Covid, ended up in ICU for 4 days and has recovered. He's a strong bloke, both mentally and physically, a tough but great man, was so happy to hear this...


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> if you look at the US from a distance, then what you see as conservatives are some really bad people. What has conservatism produced in the last 20 years? Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Bolton - starting wars, opening illegal prisons in Guantamo, justifying torture etc. And now trumpism based on lies, hate and fostering divisions. What have they actually done for the American people or for the US democracy? I have not seen a single positive thing come out of a Republican government my entire life. They are just a hindrance for progress, like the slavers were in their time. And by progress I do not mean any leftist liberal ideas. I mean implementing things like universal healthcare and free education. Actually starting doing something for the people, not just for the rich class.


These conservatives now only form one face of the US war industrial machine, commonly referred to a Bush's NWO, that I polarize myself against.... the Clintons, Obama, Kerry, Holder, and many other "liberals" are also complicit, by deception, "mission creep" , and buying off exposure, so they get a free pass by those who won't look deep enough, cause if there are no more Vietnams then the US can feel "clean"... they consider proxy wars where they provide all the guidance and ammo are the "solution"... they allowed insurgents to destroy Libya... and people here accept and support that, thinking there is some kind of superior moral difference from one side to the other... they're all just fighting over resource numbers... energy, food, and humans, and the last are the most expendable... but yeah let's cite one side as heroic and the other villainous, deceiving ourselves over and over... I won't... the left can't get itself together due to being a fractious coalition that destroys itself from the inside, just as it attempts to create "revolution" from the inside, because profit is evil but they want more for themselves, non-profits run by chiefs bossing their troops around, so it's just Animal Farm all the time on the left... not making any sense and prone to internal conflict... I'm done with that because the gains have diminished and it kept me unhappy and conflicted... which is still evident in those who haven't made that step...

Jerry Brown, the last CA governor, was the last straw for me... that's another story but he beat his 30-year environmental opposition by resorting to 9/11-type crisis politicking...


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> I don't know what this means. Certainly, absent an effective vaccine, we'd all better hope that we can achieve some sort of herd immunity without too much cost. This seems to me unrelated to any sort of politics, and not an idea that anybody's "pushing".


It means that whenever they hear an idea they disagree with, it MUST have come from a US conservative... and ALL US conservaatives... but nobody else... never a lefty... the early COVID tests probably had lower false positives than such malarkey...


----------



## Flamme

He lived 2 the ripe old age...Some1 few pages ago mentioned some1 dying in his 90s...I was never a fan of ''long life'', bcoz I value quality over quantity but I would give AN ARM AND LEG, even my life, literally so that my mum could lived at least until 73, like her mum did, so she could c and play with her grandchild, just read him fairytales, saying the cuddly words she said 2 us...Life is so unfair on so many levels...Both her parents lived long, her mum until 73, her dad until 85...Nothing was ''in the air'' of the curse, of the tragedy that has befallen us. My poor mum always told me how I had a ''catastrophy'' when I cut my hand as a child, I wish I could say her now, omg why didnt u care more about yourself, why did u care only 4 us...I fail 2 c the divine plan in all this madness.God is so cruel


----------



## philoctetes

Something happened to the US left since 9/11 and it has never been the same... I've never seen the country so unified as it was behind Bush but I was not.... then same with the WMDs...and then later with Obama bringing all that "change" that pretty much evaporated... from health care to the Middle East... all concurrent with a huge shift of wealth and innovation out of America due to globalism... this is why Dems are losing support (nevermind the media polls) and especially because Biden's claims to ever solving anything are numerous but often empty, and too expensive... not even Anita Hill makes him look good...

9/11 helped create this crisis culture that has simply found it's next logical step with COVID.... and keeping Americans stupid... they don't realize they're living their nice lifestyle on borrowed time and the IOU will come eventually...


----------



## KenOC

Some serious pressure to re-open. From the *BBC*:
---------------------------------------------
Billionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk has said he will move the electric carmaker's headquarters out of California, after he was ordered to keep its only US vehicle plant closed.

"Tesla will now move its HQ and future programs to Texas/Nevada immediately," the CEO tweeted…

Since 23 March, all but "basic operations" have been suspended at Tesla's Fremont plant, near San Francisco, because of "shelter in place" orders enacted in Alameda County. The factory employs more than 10,000 workers, and makes about 415,000 vehicles every year...

Mr Musk suggested the factory's future could now be in doubt, tweeting: "If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all, it will be dependent on how Tesla is treated in the future."


----------



## Guest

philoctetes said:


> It means that whenever they hear an idea they disagree with, it MUST have come from a US conservative... and ALL US conservaatives... but nobody else... never a lefty... the early COVID tests probably had lower false positives than such malarkey...


That's easy; a decent idea never comes from the Left. Period.


----------



## mountmccabe

KenOC said:


> I don't know what this means. Certainly, absent an effective vaccine, we'd all better hope that we can achieve some sort of herd immunity without too much cost. This seems to me unrelated to any sort of politics, and not an idea that anybody's "pushing".


The "without too much cost" is the kicker, though. We could talk about hoping that it will all go away magically but that doesn't have much to do with reality.

I don't want to reach herd immunity without a vaccine or without significant advances in treatment because the cost would be too high. Within the United States we'd be talking about ~200 million people infected. Deaths would likely be in the millions, and there'd be more than that recovering from serious cases of COVID-19.

People that are talking about herd immunity (without a vaccine, etc.) are some combination of OK with millions dead and denying that it will happen. But, again, our hopes do not change reality.


----------



## DaveM

Jacck said:


> if you look at the US from a distance, *then what you see as conservatives are some really bad people.* What has conservatism produced in the last 20 years? Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Bolton - starting wars, opening illegal prisons in Guantamo, justifying torture etc. And now trumpism based on lies, hate and fostering divisions. *What have they actually done for the American people or for the US democracy?* I have not seen a single positive thing come out of a Republican government my entire life. *They are just a hindrance for progress, like the slavers were in their time.* And by progress I do not mean any leftist liberal ideas. I mean implementing things like universal healthcare and free education. Actually starting doing something for the people, not just for the rich class.


Those are some incredibly broad negative statements and expose a very limited knowledge of the subject. I'm rather surprised. And you apparently don't know the conservatives I'm talking about which is understandable given your distant perspective. Do you really think those few names define conservatives?

Also, people are not necessarily all bad the way you infer. Take George W. Bush. Perhaps you judge him purely on the Iraq War. But starting in 2003 he launched the PEPFAR HIV program (now headed up by the Dr. Birx) which is credited with saving millions of African lives.

I'll leave it at that since further discussion can get into politics which I'm trying to avoid.


----------



## eljr

I never thought much of Obie but he is spot on in this quote referring to Trump and his handling of the pandemic. 

"It has been an absolute chaotic disaster when that mindset -- of 'what's in it for me' and 'to heck with everybody else' -- when that mindset is operationalized in our government."


----------



## KenOC

Jacck said:


> ...I have not seen a single positive thing come out of a Republican government my entire life.


Perhaps you were distracted when the interstate highway system was built, when the Southwest was replumbed supplying water to millions, when Southern schools were desegregated... Well, I'll stop there, with Eisenhower. It's apparent that you have been preoccupied with many important things.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Given that the hands down most affected area in this country is the single city of NYC, governed by a very liberal mayor, in a Democrat run state, I think this talk of how horrible conservatives are and just want to let people die is a deflection away from just how much liberals and progressives are cool with people dying, as long as they still get to ride the subway.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> Those are some incredibly broad negative statements and expose a very limited knowledge of the subject. I'm rather surprised. And you apparently don't know the conservatives I'm talking about which is understandable given your distant perspective. Do you really think those few names define conservatives?
> 
> Also, people are not necessarily all bad the way you infer. Take George W. Bush. Perhaps you judge him purely on the Iraq War. But starting in 2003 he launched the PEPFAR HIV program (now headed up by the Dr. Birx) which is credited with saving millions of African lives.
> 
> I'll leave it at that since further discussion can get into politics which I'm trying to avoid.


Come on, tell him he shouldn't be discussing American politics since he isn't from here.


----------



## DaveM

The first results of a study (retrospective, not-yet-peer-reviewed) on the use of Famotidine/Pepcid (an H2-blocker antacid) since anecdotal evidence of a benefit in reducing severity and mortality from Clovid-19 came out of China has just been released. It involved 1620 patients who were hospitalized, but not yet requiring intubation/ventilation. The results:

'_Use of famotidine was associated with reduced risk for death or intubation (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.40, 95% CI 0.20-0.81) and also with reduced risk for death alone (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.11-0.78). _

Preliminary I know, but for me, very exciting stuff! Famotidine is a relatively, very safe drug. If it turned out to be something that is effective and could be taken from the onset of the virus, it would be a true game-changer.

This appears to be a retrospective study -studying patients going back to early February- by the same author who initiated a study by Northwell Health in New York after hearing about the anecdotal evidence in China. This may be separate from the ongoing study that he is a part of and which started in the first week of April. Results from the latter study are expected some time around early September.


----------



## Room2201974

Jacck said:


> if you look at the US from a distance, then what you see as conservatives are some really bad people. What has conservatism produced in the last 20 years? Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Bolton - starting wars, opening illegal prisons in Guantamo, justifying torture etc. And now trumpism based on lies, hate and fostering divisions. What have they actually done for the American people or for the US democracy? I have not seen a single positive thing come out of a Republican government my entire life. They are just a hindrance for progress, like the slavers were in their time. And by progress I do not mean any leftist liberal ideas. I mean implementing things like universal healthcare and free education. Actually starting doing something for the people, not just for the rich class.


The Republican mantra since Reagan has been that government does not work. When they get into power, they prove it. All they want is the *power* and none of the responsibilities of actually governing. Therein lies the clue to DJT's disastrous Covid 19 response.

My state has a serious ongoing water crisis that through the years has been getting worse. That's because Republicans control the state, from legislators on down to the water managers. When you get companies and corporations buying off state legislators with campaign donations to ensure their re-elections then faq any attempt at conservation of natural resources. Cause what we *need* folks is to use the biggest lake in the state as a private cesspool for companies making vast profits. Point 9 of the 14 points of facism......corporate power must be protected at all costs...John Roberts and company have proven that in the last 15 years.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> '_Use of famotidine was associated with reduced risk for death or intubation (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.40, 95% CI 0.20-0.81) and also with reduced risk for death alone (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.11-0.78)_.


Interesting. I had to look up aHR, which is the likelihood of a certain outcome in one group divided by the same likelihood in another. It says nothing, in itself, about the absolute level of risk.

For instance, let's say the 1620 study subjects were divided into two equal groups of 810 people each, one group getting the drug and the other not. If 80 people in the non-drug group died and only 23 in the drug group died, the aHR would be 23/810 divided by 80/810, or 0.29 as in the case of this study.

It looks to me that you might also be able to say, "If I take this drug I'm 71% less likely to die from this disease." Or, more accurately given the confidence interval, "I am 95% confident that if I take this drug I'm between 22% and 89% less likely to die."


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> Interesting. I had to look up aHR, which is the likelihood of a certain outcome in one group divided by the same likelihood in another. It says nothing, in itself, about the absolute level of risk.
> 
> For instance, let's say the 1620 study subjects were divided into two equal groups of 810 people each, one group getting the drug and the other not. If 80 people in the non-drug group died and only 23 in the drug group died, the aHR would be 23/810 divided by 80/810, or 0.29 as in the case of this study.
> 
> It looks to me that you might also be able to say, "If I take this drug I'm 71% less likely to die from this disease."


It's hard to know specifically how much one can take from this study. On the other hand, I find the trend toward a possible benefit to be encouraging as opposed to a 'no benefit' which I was afraid might be the case since we first heard about the anecdotal famotidine experience in China.

They evaluated people on both oral and IV famotidine. One of the lead authors says that, at this time, he doesn't recommend physicians giving it to those who come down with the virus. Well, that's a horse that's left the barn!


----------



## Guest

A 20 minute read but absolutely well worth the effort: a recent article about the pandemic known as the "Spanish Flu".

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/08/the-making-of-a-global-pandemic/


----------



## bz3

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Come on, tell him he shouldn't be discussing American politics since he isn't from here.


Well I believe anyone should discuss anything they like, no matter what the censors say, but I will say it appears that non-Americans are even more hardened to the fake opposition in America's uniparty. That's not to say that Americans don't fall for the my side/your side scam but we at least have language to explain it (RINO, neocon, neoliberal, war party, etc.) whereas our politics are exported in a very propagandized fashion.

It is beneficial for the corporate media moguls, who often own the largest media corporations in European nations just as they do the ones in America, to pretend that the good guys are right around the corner. Just keep voting (or not) and keep consuming. Everything will be okay just as soon as we abandon all our traditions and accept our cultural values from the people who bring you transgenderism and pornography.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

9 of the top 10 states for coronavirus deaths are governed by Democrats. But we are to believe that the real threat in this country is conservatives. But obviously more populous states will have more deaths. What about per 100,000 people? Still 9 of the top 10 are Democratic-governed states. 

So yeah, it's conservatives that want to let you die. As always, Democrats don't ever want you to judge them on their results, only on their intentions. So sure, you are more likely to die of coronavirus in a Democrat-governed state, but damnit, they love you more than those horrible red states where you are safer from the virus.

Come to Ohio. Only 11 deaths power 100,000. Less than 1/10th the death rate of NYC (135).


----------



## KenOC

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Come to Ohio. Only 11 deaths power 100,000. Less than 1/10th the death rate of NYC (135).


Here in California we have only 1/20 of the Covid-19 death rate in New York state. We're a kinder, gentler blue state! :lol::lol::lol:


----------



## Guest

bz3 said:


> Well I believe anyone should discuss anything they like, no matter what the censors say, but I will say it appears that non-Americans are even more hardened to the fake opposition in America's uniparty. That's not to say that Americans don't fall for the my side/your side scam but we at least have language to explain it (RINO, neocon, neoliberal, war party, etc.) whereas our politics are exported in a very propagandized fashion.
> 
> It is beneficial for the corporate media moguls, who often own the largest media corporations in European nations just as they do the ones in America, to pretend that the good guys are right around the corner. Just keep voting (or not) and keep consuming. Everything will be okay just as soon as we abandon all our traditions and accept our cultural values from the people who bring you transgenderism and pornography.


Hard to disagree with your last sentence. It's largely the social engineering which is a huge turn-off for people not of the Left, and I hear that over and over again. However, it's a conflation to put pornography in proximity with transgenderism; one derives from the oldest 'profession' on the planet and the other a fabrication from intersectionalists from the identitarian Left.

To tell people they cannot discuss American politics because they don't live there....that's wackadoodle Lefty thinking. In fact, we *all* would like Americans to engage more with the rest of the political and cultural world rather than focusing on their own backyards ALL THE TIME. Geography and geopolitics not their strong suits!! I think they've only just realized where Australia is!!
This is a complaint you hear the world over and which has been heard for many decades about American insularity. Of course, many engaged and interested people are not like this, but they're in the minority.

I was hoping the Coronavirus emergency would throw identity politics, PC, grievance, social engineering and complaint culture to the wind - but it has proven very resilient indeed. Perhaps those who cling onto it have little else. Now there's a thought.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> Here in California we have only 1/20 of the Covid-19 death rate in New York state. We're a kinder, gentler blue state! :lol::lol::lol:


That's only because the horrible conservatives in Northern California have not been given the green light for their death squads. So believes our friend from the Czech Republic, expert on all things conservative.


----------



## DaveM

I know that when I think of Cleveland, Ohio, I’m immediately reminded of New York City.


----------



## KenOC

The myth persists, perhaps more in Europe than here in the US, that the Republican party is a captive of big business. But in the 2016 elections, Trump's campaign raised less than half the cash of Clinton's (super-PACs included). The Onion even ran a joke story about Clinton's finance manager being killed by a falling pallet of money at campaign headquarters.

Further, Clinton received a far higher proportion of large donations than Trump - that wasn't even close. In particular, the oil and gas and Wall Street financial industries were both solidly behind Clinton.

Some of the information can be found *here*.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I know that when I think of Cleveland, Ohio, I'm immediately reminded of New York City.


Why? Cleveland is safer than NYC for coronavirus.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Why? Cleveland is safer than NYC for coronavirus.


I was being, as they say, facetious since you made a comparison between Ohio and NYC.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

DaveM said:


> I was being, as they say, facetious since you made a comparison between Ohio and NYC.


I know, I got that. I think I have more Cleveland Orchestra recordings than any New York group.


----------



## science

80k known deaths in the US now. The actual number is higher of course.


----------



## DaveM

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I know, I got that. I think I have more Cleveland Orchestra recordings than any New York group.


And for good reason. Interesting that cities that one wouldn't have thought of as great cultural centers such as Cleveland and Detroit had some pretty good orchestras in the past.


----------



## philoctetes

science said:


> 80k known deaths in the US now. The actual number is higher of course.


science, 80k is a very imprecise number, leaving out three digits of accuracy, and you speculate on it being higher... higher than what, 80000 or 80499? They are both equal to 80k after roundoff.

Reports, rumors, statistical realism, whatever, would lead some to think maybe the death counts are not really accurate to full precision... if you know what I mean... so it also would be thinkable to a realistic person that the miscounts could be biased either way, from place to place, with a net aggregate bias either way, without more information many statisticians would assume unbiased errors, yet you seem so sure that they aren't, why is that

noise in data does not take the shape you personally prefer it to be, for dramatic or political effect, that is known as data fixing or fraud... you must do a noise analysis before making such assumptions and I haven't seen that

I would not have posted this but the minute you use numbers in such a sloppy way it's just too transparent to ignore...


----------



## philoctetes

Now I'm hearing about the San Fernando Valley opening up... I guess if they can't invade the Ventura beaches they gonna mount their rebellion inland, bully for them... be the canary in the coal mine... we'll check back a week later...

are they conservative? yeah, in the California sense maybe, of many colors, skills, and origins, but many traditional midwest conservatives would view them as heathen

The crew that painted my home last summer? All Mexican, all Christian, and all-Trump. Kinda surprised me...


----------



## arpeggio

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Come on, tell him he shouldn't be discussing American politics since he isn't from here.


I have found that many non-Americans have a better grasp of American politics than most Americans.


----------



## KenOC

Alas California! As reported earlier, Elon Musk has had it with this state due to its refusal to re-open. “Frankly, this is the final straw. Tesla will now move its HQ and future programs to Texas/Nevada immediately. If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all, it will be dependent on how Tesla is treated in the future. Tesla is the last carmaker left in CA.”

A California assemblywoman tweeted “**** Elon Musk”.

But tweets from Texas and Nevada are friendlier:

“Texas gets better every day. Good conservative principles make good governance, and attract the best and the brightest. The future is happening in Texas.”

“Nevada NEEDS these jobs most of all right now, @elonmusk. We would love to have you and Tesla HQ right here in the Battleborn State!”


----------



## DaveM

arpeggio said:


> I have found that many non-Americans have a better grasp of American politics than most Americans.


Maybe, but they're not on here.


----------



## atsizat

This serious


----------



## science

philoctetes said:


> science, 80k is a very imprecise number, leaving out three digits of accuracy, and you speculate on it being higher... higher than what, 80000 or 80499? They are both equal to 80k after roundoff.
> 
> Reports, rumors, statistical realism, whatever, would lead some to think maybe the death counts are not really accurate to full precision... if you know what I mean... so it also would be thinkable to a realistic person that the miscounts could be biased either way, from place to place, with a net aggregate bias either way, without more information many statisticians would assume unbiased errors, yet you seem so sure that they aren't, why is that
> 
> noise in data does not take the shape you personally prefer it to be, for dramatic or political effect, that is known as data fixing or fraud... you must do a noise analysis before making such assumptions and I haven't seen that
> 
> I would not have posted this but the minute you use numbers in such a sloppy way it's just too transparent to ignore...


The problem is we don't actually have very accurate numbers. What good is 80,037 compared to 80k?

The Yale School of Public Health says that in hard-hit areas of the country, the number of known deaths could be off by as much as 50%.

That means, really, that 80k is even too precise. We should be saying something like "100k +/- 20k."

If you want certainly, then you should support policies that enable more and more testing, rather than regarding testing as something that "makes us look bad," as our President does.


----------



## erki

Christabel said:


> A 20 minute read but absolutely well worth the effort: a recent article about the pandemic known as the "Spanish Flu".
> 
> https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/08/the-making-of-a-global-pandemic/


Thank you! It is very interesting text indeed.
It may well be that on personal level we feel so powerless to create some change(although the need for it is very clear) that we welcome any strong force from outside of the system to do it for us. For awhile it has been the hope of climate change to be opening the eyes of decision makers. But it is clear now that they can buy themselves out of it at least temporarily(few generations). So the plague/disease could be much more effective since the threat is much more universal. I must agree that the theme of apocalypse is rather popular in western culture and usually it has that great hope and positive narrative for the few to survive and make the life better in the end. Very biblical indeed!


----------



## erki

bz3 said:


> That's not to say that Americans don't fall for the my side/your side scam


It is so much easier to explain everything in terms of good and evil, black and white so polarisation is cultivated in many political systems. Like ours - we have many parties in Parliament but they form the dual system of coalition versus opposition and the result is the same.
It really surprises me that in the face of universal threat the decisions making is reserved to one party only. And if their leaders are stupid, cowardly or corrupt everyone will bear the consequences also the ones who did not vote for them.


----------



## Guest

Greeks marvel at Britain's Covid chaos as their lockdown lifts after 150 deathshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/greeks-marvel-at-britains-covid-chaos-as-their-lockdown-lifts-after-150-deaths


----------



## erki

Swedes say that we all get our deaths in long run. So nothing to be proud and excited about very low death numbers right now.


----------



## Kieran

erki said:


> Swedes say that we all get our deaths in long run. So nothing to be proud and excited about very low death numbers right now.


This is unfortunately true, but we don't expect the Guardian newspaper to do anything other than cheer against their government. They're a very reliable news source, from that perspective.

A great pity for those of us who admired the South Korean response is that they're having to retreat. It'll be interesting to see what happens there now, but hopefully their successful policy of track and trace and test will work again, they were an example of how to do this already...


----------



## Kieran

KenOC said:


> Alas California! As reported earlier, Elon Musk has had it with this state due to its refusal to re-open. "Frankly, this is the final straw. Tesla will now move its HQ and future programs to Texas/Nevada immediately. If we even retain Fremont manufacturing activity at all, it will be dependent on how Tesla is treated in the future. Tesla is the last carmaker left in CA."
> 
> A California assemblywoman tweeted "**** Elon Musk".
> 
> But tweets from Texas and Nevada are friendlier:
> 
> "Texas gets better every day. Good conservative principles make good governance, and attract the best and the brightest. The future is happening in Texas."
> 
> "Nevada NEEDS these jobs most of all right now, @elonmusk. We would love to have you and Tesla HQ right here in the Battleborn State!"


She's a class act, whoever the assemblywoman is, using expressions like that, in a situation which may affect her constituents jobs. There'll be a huge jockey for positions over the next 18 months as companies try to thrive or survive, in the places which are best for them to do this. It's up to elected officials to look at tax rates and incentives to try help, rather than hinder them...


----------



## eljr

science said:


> The problem is we don't actually have very accurate numbers. What good is 80,037 compared to 80k?
> 
> The Yale School of Public Health says that in hard-hit areas of the country, the number of known deaths could be off by as much as 50%.
> 
> That means, really, that 80k is even too precise. We should be saying something like "100k +/- 20k."
> 
> If you want certainly, then you should support policies that enable more and more testing, rather than regarding testing as something that "makes us look bad," as our President does.


all this talk of death numbers is a diversion, nothing more.

We all know the numbers are frightening, that is all one needs to know.

The end numbers will be estimates as they are with the flu every year.

This will be way easy to calculate. Just look at teh last 5 year average in deaths in teh USA and compare it to this year, by month. Bam, now you know how totally devastating this virus is.

This numbers nonsense is nothing but a political football INVENTED by the GOP, Fox.


----------



## eljr

Death numbers, a diversion. 

Fact is the response to this virus at the federal level has been...

"It has been an absolute chaotic disaster when that mindset -- of 'what's in it for me' and 'to heck with everybody else' -- when that mindset is operationalized in our government."


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> all this talk of death numbers is a diversion, nothing more.
> 
> We all know the numbers are frightening, that is all one needs to know.
> 
> The end numbers will be estimates as they are with the flu every year.
> 
> This will be way easy to calculate. Just look at teh last 5 year average in deaths in teh USA and compare it to this year, by month. Bam, now you know how totally devastating this virus is.
> 
> This numbers nonsense is nothing but a political football INVENTED by the GOP, Fox.


Right. Invented by the GOP. If Obama were in office, nobody would be reporting numbers! Because nobody ever talks about these types of things in terms of numbers. Give me a break.

And looking at the average in deaths - you mean we already track deaths anyways? Damn those nefarious Republicans and Fox executives - is not going to be very accurate, because activity is not normal and comparable, so how do you compare? How many fewer traffic fatalities are we seeing because people are staying home more? How many other disease-related deaths are decreasing due to social distancing? And alternately, how far fewer people are seeking medical attention for other things for fear of going to the hospital? It will be textbook apples to oranges.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Right. Invented by the GOP. If Obama were in office, nobody would be reporting numbers! Because nobody ever talks about these types of things in terms of numbers. Give me a break.


I don't do conspiracy theories, I think them born from want and appealing to small minds.



> And looking at the average in deaths - you mean we already track deaths anyways? Damn those nefarious Republicans and Fox executives - is not going to be very accurate, because activity is not normal and comparable, so how do you compare? How many fewer traffic fatalities are we seeing because people are staying home more? How many other disease-related deaths are decreasing due to social distancing? And alternately, how far fewer people are seeking medical attention for other things for fear of going to the hospital? It will be textbook apples to oranges.


If you can't come out of your partisan mode you can't be objective.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

eljr said:


> I don't do conspiracy theories, I think them born from want and appealing to small minds.
> 
> If you can't come out of your partisan mode you can't be objective.


Right. I'm the one on this thread who needs to come out of my partisan mode. This thread is nothing BUT partisanship. Your very post to which I was responding was a clear example.

This is nothing but a political thread with a thin veneer of discussing coronavirus, but primarily for political ax grinding - and apparently the moderators are just fine with that. So I'll play along.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Right. I'm the one on this thread who needs to come out of my partisan mode. This thread is nothing BUT partisanship. Your very post to which I was responding was a clear example.
> 
> This is nothing but a political thread with a thin veneer of discussing coronavirus, but primarily for political ax grinding - and apparently the moderators are just fine with that. So I'll play along.


My bias is from the center. I did not support Obie nor Hillary. I am a Bush republican.

Being a centrist allows me to be more objective than one of the herds.

This, "you either love TRump or are a liberal" is nonsense. There are many sane people who are neither liberal nor a Trump cultist.

They can see the crap from both sides and the overwhelming problem is coming from Trumpism and their propaganda division.

Certainly a national crisis has never before been politicized before and it's not the Dem's that did it.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

mmhmm. I'm sure you are a centrist. It comes out so clearly in your posts on this thread.


----------



## eljr

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> mmhmm. I'm sure you are a centrist. It comes out so clearly in your posts on this thread.


Every Trumpist I know thinks I am a liberal, every liberal I know thinks I am a Trumpist. (even though I am a devout "never Trumper")

Black or white when we know the world is grey. Sad really.


----------



## Flamme

It turns out the 1s who claimed it was grossly exaggerated were right...Not saying it will not bring catastrophy on global scale, Im sure it will be used 2 the max by shadowy figures of politix and business. Not the virus but the ''aftershock'' is what we need 2 b afraid of.


----------



## eljr

Flamme said:


> It turns out the 1s who claimed it was grossly exaggerated were right....


this is a false statement


----------



## Flamme

Idk buddy...When all the dust is settled...


----------



## Jacck

Wealthy families are hiring laid-off chefs from NYC's cratering restaurant scene - and paying them up to twice as much to be private employees
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...e-as-much-to-be-private-employees/ar-BB13AODp


----------



## DaveM

Flamme said:


> It turns out the 1s who claimed it was grossly exaggerated were right...Not saying it will not bring catastrophy on global scale, Im sure it will be used 2 the max by shadowy figures of politix and business. Not the virus but the ''aftershock'' is what we need 2 b afraid of.


Your second sentence contradicts your first sentence. The last two sentences make no sense.


----------



## philoctetes

Zerohedge said something similar today and bungled it as well... 

'this merger with mega corporations and the new American government is a new world order, coronavirus has allowed the NWO to manifest itself'

This is how revelations often develop, how big news story break, when something is not right and confused, suspicious reporters pursue it... those with no feet on the ground should hold their judgments if they care about *truth*... 

But this is not what happens, as middle-class, educated spectators are too intimidated to look outside the media box for information... because it challenges the limits of their knowledge... and the comfort of feeling that other like them agree with them...


----------



## philoctetes

replies to me, from the NWO, will be silenced btw... and immediately invalidated as unworthy with no comment... you are the problem and you know who you are...


----------



## philoctetes

whenever a Bushie or Clintonista says "I don't believe in conspiracy theories" while spreading the Trump-Russia conspiracy theory, the WMD conspiracy theory, or numerous theories re: Syria, Israel, proxy armies, etc... when everything that Trump inherited from his predecessors is his fault, when all the sources are unnamed, when some accusers wind up in jail, well, the contradiction is too obvious and it could even be called covering up... the truth about Trump is he's a target for all kinds of blackmail and the smears easily begin there... but he remains fairly undamaged and the US would be too if not for CV and the persistent dissonance sewn by the mainstream media...

I cut live TV two weeks ago, none of the news channels are worth watching, but the last time I watched Fox News, they had disavowed their support for GW Bush during the aftermath of 911, admitting they were suckers for Bush's lies... but this is not well-known beyond their current audience, which has been taking lefties away from CNN and MSNBC... Donna Brazille has become a regular guest (a reason I turn it off) as they assisted in the early dismissal of Sanders from the primary race, by "exposing" how it was manipulated... we're at a point where no outlets attempt to prove or disprove but simply twist to fit a narrative... 

we used to say news could be manufactured for a price, and advertisers were first in line, but now it's more like the outlets are so dependent on outside subsidization that they can be told what to publish under threat of withdrawal...


----------



## Flamme

DaveM said:


> Your second sentence contradicts your first sentence. The last two sentences make no sense.


Not the virus itself but the mass hysteria and panic some cirlces spread across the world...That has grave economic, social and politicial consequences.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Destruction and Salvation is the viral pyscho-drama . Miracles of technology are falsely promised . That disappointment can be relieved by in-home A.I. mental health counseling ? 

"Alexa , I feel confounded." 

"I see ," says she (emotively) .


----------



## philoctetes

As Elon Musk threatens to move his factories from California, whatever can be said of him... scientist, innovator, reincarnator of the Tesla name, real life version of Tony Stark, etc, he doesn't seem to like going quietly into quarantine as ordered by a non-scientist, a politician... and it would seem to go against the agendas of other would-be high-profile "techies" like Gates and Bozos who seem to hold sway over our future post-COVID... or more health-related names like Fauci, CDC, and WHO...

Musk represents a side of US techno-culture that survived the conversion of Silicon Valley to an annex of Asia in the 00's (he makes large appliances, not tiny privacy-invasion tools) which I did not, and he isn't buying the hype... I honestly find the man intriguing and infuriating at the same time... don't try to pin me on this... I just think he makes an interesting point for discussion...


----------



## Flamme

We are instructed 2 believe, w/o a doubt in heavenly altruism of Bill G8s and likes...Dont know, maybe, but...


----------



## philoctetes

The NWO supporters won't admit it and wouldn't have admitted it then...

Back in January I mentioned I had seen videos on twitter from China that were very disturbing... they were the kind that would have been dismissed as fake or suspicious by those with globalist mentalities... citizens being harassed, beaten and arrested by police for CV violations... and the beatings are sometimes excessive.. this is now happening all over the world...

where are the objections to the rise of the COVID-19 police state, on this thread, I don't see them... seems that there is a growing number of resistors in the world who object to the quarantine but never thought much about it as a one-way street... an agenda... and naively think they can beat the opposing chant of "new normal, new normal" by, of all things, protesting... or, with the more elite, simply cheat without getting caught... how long can this last...

the notion that all this is some kind of "novel" biological freak-show and wouldn't be so bad if Trump hadn't bungled it well that's just too easy and convenient and doesn't make my mind go "OK, forget all the other facts and theories" and why would I - it's like a housefly saying, "forgot the compound eye, it's too complicated..."

If and when the general public, deprived of all financial power and freedom, is forced to accept the new suite of vaccines and then watch the way they live expire into total dystopia, just remember, it was just a conspiracy theory...

Even if that doesn't happen, the corporate agenda to divide the economy between Wall Street and Main Street will make the greatest gain in our lifetimes and will never reverse itself... get ready for cities to be overcome by more homeless than ever... bankruptcies and foreclosures will commence that "relief" programs can't save... and be converted into profit$ for the globalists...


----------



## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> whenever a Bushie or Clintonista says "I don't believe in conspiracy theories" while spreading the Trump-Russia conspiracy theory, the WMD conspiracy theory, or numerous theories re: Syria, Israel, proxy armies, etc... when everything that Trump inherited from his predecessors is his fault, when all the sources are unnamed, when some accusers wind up in jail, well, the contradiction is too obvious and it could even be called covering up... the truth about Trump is he's a target for all kinds of blackmail and the smears easily begin there... but he remains fairly undamaged and the US would be too if not for CV and the persistent dissonance sewn by the mainstream media...


I was going to reply to this, but then reminded myself of the definition of 'rambling' and decided it wasn't worth it.


----------



## philoctetes

Yes I'm rambling, but time for something else... your turn Dave... let er rip, come'on

what bout Elon?


----------



## philoctetes

............................................................. zip self-moderation....


----------



## philoctetes

Anyway, the tinfoil hat brigade is also alarmed apparently NIgeria is one country to suspend the rollout of 5G for safety concerns... compounding the advent of COVID into the country...

Typically, I would expect the comfortably smug to say this is stupid policy by people who don't know their science, with absolutely no awareness that they are committing good old-fashioned Western imperialistic cultural technological conqueror-slave-mentality chauvinism... 

Any takers?


----------



## KenOC

eljr said:


> all this talk of death numbers is a diversion, nothing more... This numbers nonsense is nothing but a political football INVENTED by the GOP, Fox.
> ...
> I don't do conspiracy theories, I think them born from want and appealing to small minds.


Ouch! My cognition's all dissonanced!


----------



## KenOC

*Things aren't so good in San Francisco* (well, that's been true for a long time) since the city has reduced capacity at its homeless shelters due to distancing rules.
-------------------------------------------
San Francisco is being sued by a law school and residents and businesses in the inner-city Tenderloin District who argue sidewalks are "unsanitary, unsafe, and often impassable" as homeless people crowd streets amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The number of tents and makeshift structures in the Tenderloin has tripled since January, as homeless shelters are forced to operate at low capacity in order to enforce stringent social distancing requirements, reports say.

The federal lawsuit, filed last week in part by the University of California Hastings College of Law, does not seek financial damages but instead demands the city clean up streets littered with drug needles and human waste.


----------



## philoctetes

Placer County now threatening to sue Gavin Newsom... interesting because this is Sacramento's Sierra sister county to the east with a VERY complex demographic, as this is classic gold mining country and seat of the infamous "hanging judge" of yesteryore, but now it hosts a large bulk of California's eco-tourism and recreational industry and many professionals who commute to Sacramento... 

for that reason, Sacramento and Placer counties are good examples of the way politics swings in California, and it hasn't been that long since we had a Republican governor...


----------



## philoctetes

Santa Rosa's biggest homeless camp, after being dispersed / relocated to the various alternatives offered by the county at a cost of $12M in emergency funds back in December, has now reformed at the original spot, a major intersection near a Dollar Tree mall, in more numbers than before...


----------



## philoctetes

Ken, which will win, the campaign to clean up streets or the campaign to arrest violators who leave their homes and go where they want?

Where is the ACLU nowadays? crickets...


----------



## philoctetes

Coronavirus as a stochastic or linear process,from an actuarial view, interesting bit from the NYT

This Is the Future of the Pandemic - Covid-19 isn't going away soon. Two recent studies mapped out the possible shapes of its trajectory.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html?searchResultPosition=1

It's almost as simple as a dampened oscillator... but no discussion of whether the oscillator is forced or not..


----------



## eljr

DaveM said:


> I was going to reply to this, but then reminded myself of the definition of 'rambling' and decided it wasn't worth it.


a steam of hateful, incoherent babble, seemingly unending, is best left to self exposure

agree


----------



## Guest

Kieran said:


> This is unfortunately true, but we don't expect the Guardian newspaper to do anything other than cheer against their government. They're a very reliable news source, from that perspective.
> 
> A great pity for those of us who admired the South Korean response is that they're having to retreat. It'll be interesting to see what happens there now, but hopefully their successful policy of track and trace and test will work again, they were an example of how to do this already...


For "The Guardian" it's always the glass half empty. In Australia we call it the old Socialist Weekly - the free rag you'd get in Sydney rail stations in the 1970s and run by the extreme green Left. But the undergrads love it!!


----------



## eljr

opinion:

5/8/20
“The country Trump promised to make great again has never in its history seemed so pitiful,” wrote Fintan O’Toole in The Irish Times. And he asked: “Will American prestige ever recover from this shameful episode?” Before we take up O’Toole’s question, let’s look at where we rank in the worst global crisis since World War II. In Trump’s assessment, his government has done a “spectacular job” with the Covid-19 pandemic. “And I’ll tell you, the whole world is excited watching us because we’re leading the world,” Trump said, in an updated pat on the back this week. He’s right about the leading part: Every 49 seconds or so, throughout the first week in May, an American has been dying of this disease. With 1.3 million reported cases, the United States, just five percent of the world’s population, has nearly 33 percent of the sick. With more than 75,000 deaths, we’re at the front of the pack as well. No country comes close on all three measures. “The United States reacted like Pakistan or Belarus, like a country with a shoddy infrastructure and a dysfunctional government whose leaders were too corrupt or stupid to head off mass suffering.” That’s the indictment of The Atlantic’s George Packer, calling the United States a failed state.

A country that turned out eight combat aircraft every hour at the peak of World War II could not even produce enough 75-cent masks or simple cotton nasal swabs for testing in this pandemic. A country that showed the world how to defeat polio now promotes quack remedies involving household disinfectants from the presidential podium. A country that rescued postwar Europe with the Marshall Plan didn’t even bother to show up this week at the teleconference of global leaders pledging contributions for a coronavirus vaccine. America has a failed federal government, laughed at and pitied the world over. Perhaps it is best to let the coronavirus task force die a miserable death. It’s mostly show and ego projection. As to the Irishman’s question: Will American prestige ever recover? Not for some time. Our image abroad took a real hit after Trump’s election, and it has continued to fall. Most of the world now has no confidence in the president’s leadership. But then, the same is true with most Americans. Welcome to our nightmare.

thoughts?


----------



## Sad Al

mmsbls said:


> I think when you say renewables need back up, you mean renewable energy is not dispatchable because it is intermittent. That is true, but no one who studies climate change mitigation plans to rely on fossil fuel power to "back up" renewable energy. Renewable electricity can be stored either in batteries or converted to hydrogen for later usage. There is enormous research on both pathways, and the goal is to find a set of viable pathways to enable all energy usage to be produced through renewable zero carbon energy production.


Yes, intermittency is what I meant. Unfortunately, if renewable electricity is stored either in batteries or converted to hydrogen for later usage, the energy out/energy in ratio drops too low. According to the laws of physics, renewables will never work.

https://www.artberman.com/2020/05/08/why-the-renewable-rocket-has-failed-to-launch/


----------



## pianozach

eljr said:


> opinion:
> 
> 5/8/20
> "The country Trump promised to make great again has never in its history seemed so pitiful," wrote Fintan O'Toole in The Irish Times. And he asked: "Will American prestige ever recover from this shameful episode?" Before we take up O'Toole's question, let's look at where we rank in the worst global crisis since World War II. In Trump's assessment, his government has done a "spectacular job" with the Covid-19 pandemic. "And I'll tell you, the whole world is excited watching us because we're leading the world," Trump said, in an updated pat on the back this week. He's right about the leading part: Every 49 seconds or so, throughout the first week in May, an American has been dying of this disease. With 1.3 million reported cases, the United States, just five percent of the world's population, has nearly 33 percent of the sick. With more than 75,000 deaths, we're at the front of the pack as well. No country comes close on all three measures. "The United States reacted like Pakistan or Belarus, like a country with a shoddy infrastructure and a dysfunctional government whose leaders were too corrupt or stupid to head off mass suffering." That's the indictment of The Atlantic's George Packer, calling the United States a failed state.
> 
> A country that turned out eight combat aircraft every hour at the peak of World War II could not even produce enough 75-cent masks or simple cotton nasal swabs for testing in this pandemic. A country that showed the world how to defeat polio now promotes quack remedies involving household disinfectants from the presidential podium. A country that rescued postwar Europe with the Marshall Plan didn't even bother to show up this week at the teleconference of global leaders pledging contributions for a coronavirus vaccine. America has a failed federal government, laughed at and pitied the world over. Perhaps it is best to let the coronavirus task force die a miserable death. It's mostly show and ego projection. As to the Irishman's question: Will American prestige ever recover? Not for some time. Our image abroad took a real hit after Trump's election, and it has continued to fall. Most of the world now has no confidence in the president's leadership. But then, the same is true with most Americans. Welcome to our nightmare.
> 
> thoughts?


Almost perfect.

Any attempt to improve this would be to include more detail, to make it slightly more expansive . . . but then, of course, you're making it undigestible for many with limited attention spans.

I think I'll steal these words and post them on social media. Oh, wait; I already did. I thought this looked familiar.


----------



## DaveM

eljr said:


> opinion:
> 
> 5/8/20
> ...A country that turned out eight combat aircraft every hour at the peak of World War II could not even produce enough 75-cent masks or simple cotton nasal swabs for testing in this pandemic. A country that showed the world how to defeat polio now promotes quack remedies involving household disinfectants from the presidential podium. A country that rescued postwar Europe with the Marshall Plan didn't even bother to show up this week at the teleconference of global leaders pledging contributions for a coronavirus vaccine. America has a failed federal government, laughed at and pitied the world over. Perhaps it is best to let the coronavirus task force die a miserable death. It's mostly show and ego projection. As to the Irishman's question: Will American prestige ever recover? Not for some time. Our image abroad took a real hit after Trump's election, and it has continued to fall. Most of the world now has no confidence in the president's leadership. But then, the same is true with most Americans. Welcome to our nightmare.
> 
> thoughts?


This has been very much on my mind lately. As many know, Americans, in general, did not want to take part in WW2 before Pearl Harbor. From what was limited preparation before Pearl Harbor, after the attack FDR spearheaded a nationally cooperative juggernaut that churned out machinery, weaponry, planes, tanks and vehicles at a rate never seen before or equaled since. Fast-forward to this pandemic and see the pathetic response mired in politics, ego, ignorance and any other negative adjective one might want to apply. The U.S. still has the capacity to rise to occasions like this, but at the moment it is like a State-of-the-Art racing car with no technicians to appropriately tune it and no driver to drive it.


----------



## Tikoo Tuba

Since it is a One-World pandemic , should we be inspired to elect an exquisitely charismatic U.N. Secretary General ? I think the next election is 2022 . Desperately disturbed and grumpy people are weeping for salvation . Sometimes I like to read the U.N. Charter . Obama could dye his hair green and have a go at being nominated . Listen close ... he's becoming an activist again ... and maybe see that is his plan .


----------



## KenOC

More *blue state funnies*:
----------------------------------------
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) made news this week when he confirmed that the Empire State plans to send an income tax bill to out-of-state health care workers who came to New York City to help treat coronavirus patients.


​


----------



## Guest

This woman is *an absolute DOG*. Stop laughing at her; she's vicious. How can people hate others just so much???

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...-british-pm-to-die-from-coronavirus-c-1027966


----------



## KenOC

Christabel said:


> This woman is *an absolute DOG*. Stop laughing at her; she's vicious. How can people hate others just so much???
> 
> https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...-british-pm-to-die-from-coronavirus-c-1027966


Ah, Boris Derangement Syndrome. A sad case.


----------



## bz3

KenOC said:


> The myth persists, perhaps more in Europe than here in the US, that the Republican party is a captive of big business. But in the 2016 elections, Trump's campaign raised less than half the cash of Clinton's (super-PACs included). The Onion even ran a joke story about Clinton's finance manager being killed by a falling pallet of money at campaign headquarters.
> 
> Further, Clinton received a far higher proportion of large donations than Trump - that wasn't even close. In particular, the oil and gas and Wall Street financial industries were both solidly behind Clinton.
> 
> Some of the information can be found *here*.


It was truly remarkable how much the establishment hated and refused to financially back Trump in 2016. True, arch-Zionists Sheldon Adelson and Paul Singer remain large donors to Trump but that's really all he had in terms of big money. Whatever else you think of Trump the fact that he beat the big-money candidate at least shows a glimmer of hope in the post-_Citizens United_ America.

I would highlight further that only 14% of Trump's 2016 campaign contributions came from large contributions (largely corporate or mega-rich bucks). Meanwhile 60% of Biden's 2020 contributions and 53% of Hillary Clinton's 2016 contributions were large donations. Trump, for his part, is about 34% large contributions for 2020. He remains, by far, the hated candidate of the establishment - notwithstanding Berniebro-tier critiques.


----------



## Guest

KenOC said:


> Ah, Boris Derangement Syndrome. A sad case.


Wishing somebody dead is a special kind of hatred but sadly Miriam Gargoyle is like this about absolutely everything. Her snide, sneering and profane language is the giveaway of a person bent out of shape by hatred but pretending it's all a joke. It isn't.


----------



## DaveM

bz3 said:


> He remains, by far, the hated candidate of the establishment - notwithstanding Berniebro-tier critiques.


It's interesting how buzz words such as 'the establishment' are used to imply some kind of nefarious entity while, in reality, if one thinks of it, the corollary might be that 'the hated candidate' is, in fact, part of 'the fringe' which isn't exactly a great alternative to 'the establishment'.


----------



## Room2201974

Two households, both alike in dignity,
In fair Verona, where we lay our scene,
From ancient grudge break to new mutiny,
Where civil blood makes civil hands unclean.


----------



## arpeggio

In an editorial in the Washington Post a writer brought up an old classic joke.

There was a flood and in order to escape the rising waters a man took refuge on the roof of his home.

Along came a man in a row boat and offered to save him. The man on the roof responded that there was no need. God would save him.

A little later a man in a motor boat came by and offered to save him. Again the man on the roof responded that there was no need. God would save him.

Finally a helicopter flew by and threw him a rope. Again the man on the roof responded that there was no need. God would save him.

Eventually he was swept away by the waters and drowned.

When he got to heaven he asked God why he did not save him?

God responded, "I sent you a row boat, a motor boat and a helicopter. What more did you want?"

I know. it is a moldy oldie.


----------



## KenOC

DaveM said:


> It's interesting how buzz words such as 'the establishment' are used to imply some kind of nefarious entity while, in reality, if one thinks of it, the corollary would be that 'the hated candidate' would be, in fact, part of 'the fringe' which isn't exactly a great alternative to 'the establishment'.


If you're not part of the establishment then you're a part of the fringe? Sorry, I can't share that view.


----------



## DaveM

KenOC said:


> If you're not part of the establishment then you're a part of the fringe? Sorry, I can't share that view.


Point taken. I changed it to 'might be'.


----------



## KenOC

*Top White House advisers, unlike their boss, increasingly worry stimulus spending is costing too much*

Of course in the story, the WaPo offers absolutely no evidence that Trump is unworried about all this spending. I guess they made that part up.


----------



## erki

Christabel said:


> This woman is *an absolute DOG*. Stop laughing at her; she's vicious. How can people hate others just so much???
> 
> https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...-british-pm-to-die-from-coronavirus-c-1027966


I wouldn't take it so seriously. How many people have wished fo some leader who they think is responsible for some ills to die? Think of Hitler, Stalin, Putin, Erdoğan. It feels like an easy solution - instead of constant fighting with the ideas you don't like your opponent just disappears. I doubt it has anything to do with hate.


----------



## Jacck

erki said:


> I wouldn't take it so seriously. How many people have wished fo some leader who they think is responsible for some ills to die? Think of Hitler, Stalin, Putin, Erdoğan. It feels like an easy solution - instead of constant fighting with the ideas you don't like your opponent just disappears. I doubt it has anything to do with hate.


fighting with ideas? The Ukrainians were fighting russian tanks and russian terrorists. When Stalin died, prisoners in gulags started celebrating and thanking God, that the devil has finally returned back to hell. Half of people in my country are waiting, till our president dies, though not many will say it loud


----------



## Jacck

Six flaws in the arguments for reopening
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/10/six-flaws-arguments-reopening/


----------



## erki

Jacck said:


> fighting with ideas? The Ukrainians were fighting russian tanks and russian terrorists. When Stalin died, prisoners in gulags started celebrating and thanking God, that the devil has finally returned back to hell. Half of people in my country are waiting, till our president dies, though not many will say it loud


Precisely, it is not anything inhuman. Most of us wish someone to die in some point. Some even go as far as attempt it in reality. I have heard that USA(CIA) did try to murder Castro many times. So to make big media story out of it is rather ridiculous.


----------



## elgar's ghost

Christabel said:


> This woman is *an absolute DOG*. Stop laughing at her; she's vicious. How can people hate others just so much???
> 
> https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal...-british-pm-to-die-from-coronavirus-c-1027966


Come on, she's a full-on left wing activist so she's allowed to say things like that. Not so full-on left wing to refuse an OBE in 2002, though...


----------



## Kieran

Yeah, there's a leader of a transport union in the UK who said he'd throw a party if Boris Johnson died. These people aren't infected by any kind of disease at all, they're perfectly healthy!


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> Six flaws in the arguments for reopening
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/10/six-flaws-arguments-reopening/


It's a sobering read...


----------



## elgar's ghost

Kieran said:


> Yeah, there's a leader of a transport union in the UK who said he'd throw a party if Boris Johnson died. These people aren't infected by any kind of disease at all, _they're perfectly healthy!_


In body, perhaps...


----------



## Kieran

elgars ghost said:


> In body, perhaps...


Probably not even in that, actually, but I wouldn't wish them dead...


----------



## Kieran

It's interesting how aware we are of things now, how maybe commonplace plagues and contagions are in literature and films, but we just accepted them as handy plot devices before, but now I'm becoming quite the aficionado, and when I see plagues in books I'm reading (Wolf Hall), or TV shows (The Last Kingdom), I'm appreciative, while at the same time nodding suggestions in the direction of the book/television.

Yesterday there was an essay by Albert Camus, "How To Survive The Plague", and it included some pearls. It's behind a paywall, but here's some beauties:



> *And don't visit patients before you have eaten. You would catch the disease. But don't eat too much either. You'd also be more likely to get it. And if, despite all these precautions, something poisonous manages to get in your mouth, there is no remedy for that, except to not swallow your saliva throughout the entire time of your visit. But that would be the most difficult thing to do*.





> *The most important thing is that you never be afraid. We have seen people carry out their profession as soldiers very well, despite being afraid of cannons. Yet the cannonball kills both the courageous and the fearful. Luck is a part of war, while there is very little luck with the plague. Fear taints the blood and inflames the spirit - all the books say so. Fear therefore disposes us to accept the impact of the disease, and, for the body to triumph over the infection, it is necessary to have a strong soul. Now, since pain is temporary, there is no fear greater than the fear of death. So you, the doctors fighting the plague, must stand strong in facing the idea of death and reconcile yourselves to it, before entering the kingdom prepared by the plague. If you are victorious in this respect, you will be victorious everywhere, and you will be seen to smile in the midst of this terror. The conclusion: you need a belief system.*







> *Nemesis was not at all the goddess of vengeance, despite what you were told in school, but rather the goddess of equilibrium. And her terrible blows only struck people when they threw themselves into disorder and instability. The plague is born of excess. It is excess itself, and has no limits. You must know this if you want to fight it with clear-sightedness. Do not prove Thucydides right, who, when speaking of the plague in Athens, said that the doctors were of no help at all because, in principle, they were trying to cure the disease without knowing what it was. The plague loves to hide away in secret lairs. Shed the light of intelligence and fairness in them. That will be easier, you'll see with time, than trying not to swallow your saliva.*





> *And, for example, know how to respect the laws that you will have chosen, like the ones pertaining to blockades and quarantine. A historiographer of Provence said that in the past, if anyone confined escaped, they had their face smashed in. You do not want that to happen. But you mustn't forget what is for the general good either. You will allow no exceptions to the rules, as long as they are useful, even if your heart urges you to. You are being asked to forget what you are, somewhat, without ever forgetting what you owe to yourself. That is the law of peaceful honour.*





> *You must not, you must never, get used to seeing people die like flies in our streets, the way they are now, and the way they have always done ever since the plague received its name in Athens. You will never cease to be filled with dismay by the black throats Thucydides described, throats producing a flow of blood and a hoarse cough that barely produces any phlegm, thin, salty and the colour of saffron. You will never get used to the cadavers that even birds of prey flee from to avoid getting infected. And you will continue to fight against the terrible confusion in which those who refuse to care for others die in solitude while those who make the sacrifice die in great numbers. The kind of confusion that means that pleasure no longer brings its natural consequences, where merit has no place, where people dance beside gravestones, where we push our lovers away so as not to pass on the disease, where the weight of a crime is never carried by the criminal, but by the scapegoat chosen blindly during the confusion of a terrifying moment.*





> *Despite your masks and sachets, the vinegar and the protective clothing, despite the calmness of your courage and tireless effort, the day will come when you can no longer bear this city of dying people, the crowd that turns in circles along its dusty, scorching hot streets, their cries, their terror that knows no future. The day will come when you will want to shout out your disgust in the face of everyone's pain and fear*.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...-an-exclusive-essay-by-albert-camus-53m6shbjl


----------



## arpeggio

I do not want anyone to die from this virus including the President.

What concerns me is if he does die can one imagine all of the conspiracy theories that will arise including those that will insist he was assassinated?


----------



## elgar's ghost

arpeggio said:


> I do not want anyone to die from this virus including the President.
> 
> What concerns me is if he does die can one imagine all of the conspiracy theories that will arise including those that will insist he was assassinated?


Perhaps some may think he faked his own death simply to test public reaction.


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> Perhaps some may think he faked his own death simply to test public reaction.


that is what I was thinking about Boris. He bungled the initial response, and then wanted to do a 180° turn and regain the symphathy of the nation, so he faked his sickness from the virus. It might or might not be true, but it is a nice conspiracy theory


----------



## Flamme

I dont think any government was able to realize the full scale of this virus until it peaked in china and italy...Its hard 2 say what could b done different and better. After the battle every1 is a general.


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> I dont think any government was able to realize the full scale of this virus until it peaked in china and italy...Its hard 2 say what could b done different and better. After the battle every1 is a general.


True story, and from what I see, most criticisms of how it's handled aren't about the virus at all, they're just extensions of tribal culture wars which would continue anyway...


----------



## elgar's ghost

Jacck said:


> _that is what I was thinking about Boris. He bungled the initial response, and then wanted to do a 180° turn and regain the symphathy of the nation, so he faked his sickness from the virus. It might or might not be true, but it is a nice conspiracy theory _


Now, if Miriam Margolyes had said something like this it could have been humorous but instead she had to resort to being a jackass.


----------



## Flamme

Kieran said:


> True story, and from what I see, most criticisms of how it's handled aren't about the virus at all, they're just extensions of tribal culture wars which would continue anyway...


But it will definitely be used by the ''Church of technological progress'' as an attack point on traditional institutions and states as such...''Give us the power and we will prevent the nect epidemic''...I think elon musk said humanity is already ''cyborgised'' and its a future of mankind.


----------



## science

erki said:


> Precisely, it is not anything inhuman. Most of us wish someone to die in some point. Some even go as far as attempt it in reality. I have heard that USA(CIA) did try to murder Castro many times. So to make big media story out of it is rather ridiculous.


In practical terms, every consumer in every developed country makes choices every day that help kill someone somewhere, and never more potently so than when we choose how and whether to vote.

I know that people claim to be naive about the consequences of these choices, but I don't really buy it. In our guts, in our bones, we all have a sense of the consequences, but we choose to try to be unaware of them because it'd be too inconvenient for us. The more power we have, the more blood we have on our hands. To avoid that requires more radical life-choices than most of us are willing to consider.


----------



## Jacck

elgars ghost said:


> Now, if Miriam Margolyes had said something like this it could have been humorous but instead she had to resort to being a jackass.


she said "I had difficulty not wanting Boris Johnson to die.", which implies some form of inner struggle within herself.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Kieran said:


> True story, and from what I see, most criticisms of how it's handled aren't about the virus at all, they're just extensions of tribal culture wars which would continue anyway...


This pandemic is a giant Rorschach test - everybody sees in it what they want to see in it. For many people, they see it as a weapon to use against their political opponents.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> This pandemic is a giant Rorschach test - everybody sees in it what they want to see in it. For many people, they see it as a weapon to use against their political opponents.


read Trump's tweets or watch Fox New's coverage of the Obama ebola response. Obama: 2 dead. Donald Trump: 80 thousand dead and counting


----------



## Kieran

Jacck said:


> read Trump's tweets or watch Fox New's coverage of the Obama ebola response. Obama: 2 dead. Donald Trump: 80 thousand dead and counting


Not defending Trump, but ebola wasn't quite the same. And didn't the Nobel Peace Prize saint increase America's wars, while also become something like a game-boy addict on drone striking small villages every day of his reign? He was very smooth though!


----------



## EdwardBast

Flamme said:


> I dont think any government was able to realize the full scale of this virus until it peaked in china and italy...Its hard 2 say what could b done different and better. After the battle every1 is a general.


No it's not hard to say what could have been done. Everyone knows what could have been done. Those with 20/20 foresight in the CDC, the NSA, and elsewhere were screaming it before the battle. They were ignored. Over three years ago the outgoing administration detailed the deficiencies in preparedness for a pandemic along with suggested remedies. They were ignored.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> read Trump's tweets or watch Fox New's coverage of the Obama ebola response. Obama: 2 dead. Donald Trump: 80 thousand dead and counting


Like I said - people see it is a weapon to use against their political opponents. My statement was non-partisan, but your response was to throw out this whataboutism.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

EdwardBast said:


> No it's not hard to say what could have been done. Everyone knows what could have been done. Those with 20/20 foresight in the CDC, the NSA, and elsewhere were screaming it before the battle. They were ignored. Over three years ago the outgoing administration detailed the deficiencies in preparedness for a pandemic along with suggested remedies. They were ignored.


Actually, it is hard to say. If you were to base the initial responses on what we were seeing reported from China, there was no way of predicting this level. Right now their numbers still seem fantastically low, given what we have seen in the rest of the world.

Some things worked, some didn't. We never did have that ventilator shortage everybody predicted was a foregone conclusion. Our hospitals were never overwhelmed (well, NYC came close). We could have used more masks - but then the disinformation campaign by the officials surely didn't help with that. If the CDC was officially reporting that masks were pretty much useless, why would production need to be increased?

We got some things right, and some things wrong. As usually is the case whenever you have any of these major disasters. And then everybody will spend the next several years pointing out how they were Nostradamus and everybody who didn't believe them were horrible human beings who ignored their brilliant predictions.


----------



## EdwardBast

KenOC said:


> *Top White House advisers, unlike their boss, increasingly worry stimulus spending is costing too much*
> 
> Of course in the story, the WaPo offers absolutely no evidence that Trump is unworried about all this spending. I guess they made that part up.


Perhaps they've noticed Trump's lifelong occupation of spending and losing other people's money? And the fact that he's never, ever worried about it before?


----------



## Room2201974

It started out as a virus, but it has since mutated into an IQ test! And for us here in the deep South it's turning into genocide by default. And some in here have been so aghast that a human would wish another dead from the virus! Miriam Margolyes????? Give me a break? What IS she going to *do*???? Whereas, we have the friends of Duke here in the Southland who are looking at the numbers and feeling quite good about it. And unlike Miriam Margolyes, they don't use words...they like shotguns.


----------



## philoctetes

Many things went wrong in January that slowed the response... the WHO, in mid-Jan, said they had found no evidence of contagion... and until the end of January downplayed the risk outside China... Fauci was also downplaying the risk early on... Pelosi and Schumer called it "racist" to cut flights from China... by mid-February the nation was on alert but some states were slow to respond... Pelosi conducted an interview on Feb 23 (?) in Chinatown surrounded by Chinese with no protection to show how safe it was... NO had their end-of-Feb Mardi Gras and the National Guard had to intervene, then NO blamed Trump... your studly Rocky-style leaders of New York were sending mixed signals on shelter orders and hospital needs while Li'l Bro Cuomo broke quarantine on national TV... ... I noted how many of these states were blue and it's obvious that some of them are still the most confused...


----------



## EdwardBast

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Actually, it is hard to say. If you were to base the initial responses on what we were seeing reported from China, there was no way of predicting this level. Right now their numbers still seem fantastically low, given what we have seen in the rest of the world.
> 
> Some things worked, some didn't. *We never did have that ventilator shortage everybody predicted was a foregone conclusion*. Our hospitals were never overwhelmed (well, NYC came close). We could have used more masks - but then the disinformation campaign by the officials surely didn't help with that. If the CDC was officially reporting that masks were pretty much useless, why would production need to be increased?
> 
> We got some things right, and some things wrong. As usually is the case whenever you have any of these major disasters. And then everybody will spend the next several years pointing out how they were Nostradamus and everybody who didn't believe them were horrible human beings who ignored their brilliant predictions.


Virtually everything you've stated is incorrect or absurd: 
- The likely levels of infection and the economic consequences were accurately predicted and the briefings detailing them were presented to Trump on numerous occasions.
- The models on the need for ventilators and the overwhelming of the health care system were projections of outcomes _if mitigation measures like social distancing weren't taken_. That's why they were taken. They worked. 
- "Could have used more masks?" Hundreds of health care workers were infected and scores of them died for want of proper PPE. Don't you pay attention to real world events at all?
- No one was saying masks "were pretty much useless." Where did you get that nonsense from?


----------



## pianozach

bz3 said:


> It was truly remarkable how much the establishment hated and refused to financially back Trump in 2016. True, arch-Zionists Sheldon Adelson and Paul Singer remain large donors to Trump but that's really all he had in terms of big money. Whatever else you think of Trump the fact that he beat the big-money candidate at least shows a glimmer of hope in the post-_Citizens United_ America.
> 
> I would highlight further that only 14% of Trump's 2016 campaign contributions came from large contributions (largely corporate or mega-rich bucks). Meanwhile 60% of Biden's 2020 contributions and 53% of Hillary Clinton's 2016 contributions were large donations. Trump, for his part, is about 34% large contributions for 2020. He remains, by far, the hated candidate of the establishment - notwithstanding Berniebro-tier critiques.


Trump's finances? His campaign financing?

Publicly, and superficially, we do know that _"only 14% of Trump's 2016 campaign contributions [$46,000,000] came from large contributions (largely corporate or mega-rich bucks)."_ He supposedly self-financed to the tune of almost 20% [$66,000,000]. Small Individual Contributions (< $200) were $86,749,927, or 25.94%.

*And 40% [$132,000,000] came from "Other"*. And most of that "Self-funding" was a loan: 69% of the campaign's funding was debt that has to be paid back either using other donations or by the candidate himself.

There are other intangible assets that are difficult to calculate. The whole thing with FBI Director Comey dropping the bombshell about ["Oops - false alarm"] Hillary's emails a couple of weeks before the election very likely helped Trump at the ballot box, and "help" like that does not have a "monetary value". Also of value is that Comey DIDN'T disclose that Trump was ALSO under investigation at that time.

Then there's the whole thing with Russian Facebook ads and trolls and fake accounts (like ones called "Tennessee GOP" and "Army of Jesus") dividing and targeting US voters. These "attacks" focused on issues like immigration, the Black Lives Matter movement and religion. Some were used to encourage minority groups not to vote or to promote accusations that the Democratic Party engaged in voter fraud.

Other fraudulent accounts, like "South United" and "Heart of Texas," took on a geographic identity. In an email written to a family member, a Russian defendant, Irina Viktorovna Kaverzina, explained: "I created all these pictures and posts, and the Americans believed that it was written by their people."

Fake accounts also planned rallies for Trump.

What kind of value do you place on THAT?

And then there was his charity organization that had to be shut down when it became obvious that it was nothing more than a personal purse for Trump Corp. Self-financing? Um, no. Fraud financing.

How about that Rudy Giuliani, whose "employee" Lev Parnas was actually paying HIM to work for him.

You know, we never got a look at Trump's taxes or even his finances.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/po...paganda-may-really-have-helped-trump-n1025306


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

EdwardBast said:


> Perhaps they've noticed Trump's lifelong occupation of spending and losing other people's money? And the fact that he's never, ever worried about it before?


Are you kidding? That is the absolute thing that any Washington politician does - spending and losing other people's money! Biden has been doing it since before I was born.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> It started out as a virus, but it has since mutated into an IQ test! And for us here in the deep South it's turning into genocide by default. And some in here have been so aghast that a human would wish another dead from the virus! Miriam Margolyes????? Give me a break? What IS she going to *do*???? Whereas, we have the friends of Duke here in the Southland who are looking at the numbers and feeling quite good about it. And unlike Miriam Margolyes, they don't use words...they like shotguns.


Well, as long as we aren't exaggerating. Where is the genocide? Which state in the South is seeing genocide-level deaths? Please enlighten us. And if they really wanted to create a genocide, it seems like they should go ask their northern neighbors in New York City and New Jersey to find out how to more efficiently kill people in larger numbers.


----------



## pianozach

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Are you kidding? That is the absolute thing that any Washington politician does - spending and losing other people's money! Biden has been doing it since before I was born.


I think you just pulled that "factoid" straight out of your cornhole.

Using investor money in business is a completely different kind of corruption than using campaign contributions to finance campaigns.

Source?


----------



## Room2201974

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Well, as long as we aren't exaggerating. Where is the genocide? Which state in the South is seeing genocide-level deaths? Please enlighten us. And if they really wanted to create a genocide, it seems like they should go ask their northern neighbors in New York City and New Jersey to find out how to more efficiently kill people in larger numbers.


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...rump-administration-for-us-coronavirus-deaths

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...al-coronavirus-slow-burn-20200508-p54qzc.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html


----------



## philoctetes

Yesterday: Chuck Todd demonstrated why nobody can trust the Trump haters...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the original clip, CBS News' Catherine Herridge asks Barr how history would judge the DOJ's decision - to which Barr responds "Well, history is written by the winners, so it largely depends on who's writing the history.

Todd cuts the clip off there, and says that he was "struck by the cynicism of the answer -- it's a correct answer, but he's the attorney general. He didn't make the case that he was upholding the rule of law. He was almost admitting that, yeah, this was a political job."

In fact, that's exactly what Barr said.

"I think a fair history would say it was a good decision because it upheld the rule of law," said the AG, adding "It upheld the standards of the Department of Justice, and it undid what was an injustice."

In other words, Todd literally stole Barr's line about 'upholding the rule of law' and flipped it around in a case of blatant propaganda.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Find your own source... it's all over the news this morning... this is typical, at least once a week the spineless neo-lib media will manufacture a story by distorting the truth... hundreds of instances since 2016... including their claims of social media interference which they can't track down if they tried... it's clearly coming from all ends of the spectrum and many different countries... when they get caught their retractions come too late and fall on deaf ears... the original lie is what sticks and they know that's how it works and they can get away with it... when Trump calls them out it's a "meltdown" and so on...

later NBC said

You’re correct. Earlier today, we inadvertently and inaccurately cut short a video clip of an interview with AG Barr before offering commentary and analysis. The remaining clip included important remarks from the attorney general that we missed, and we regret the error.
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) May 10, 2020


----------



## pianozach

Room2201974 said:


> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...rump-administration-for-us-coronavirus-deaths
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...al-coronavirus-slow-burn-20200508-p54qzc.html


From the article, from a Tweet:

_How many people will die this summer, before Election Day? What proportion of the deaths will be among African-Americans, Latinos, other people of color? This is getting awfully close to genocide by default. What else do you call mass death by public policy?
_

A comment on the Tweet blasts the Tweeter for misuse of the word "genocide", because it infers intent, when it appears that the deaths are due to "incompetence".

But in law circles ignorance doesn't really excuse a death. If you get a ticket for riding your bike on the wrong side of the road, you cannot claim that you didn't know there was a law about which side of the road you can ride your bike on. "Ignorance of the law is no excuse". I know, that's a fine line.

But the commenter also didn't refute the deaths or the blame, only the intent. And whether these deaths will be due to intentional acts is very much up for debate.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

EdwardBast said:


> Virtually everything you've stated is incorrect or absurd:
> - The likely levels of infection and the economic consequences were accurately predicted and the briefings detailing them were presented to Trump on numerous occasions.
> - The models on the need for ventilators and the overwhelming of the health care system were projections of outcomes _if mitigation measures like social distancing weren't taken_. That's why they were taken. They worked.
> - "Could have used more masks?" Hundreds of health care workers were infected and scores of them died for want of proper PPE. Don't you pay attention to real world events at all?
> - No one was saying masks "were pretty much useless." Where did you get that nonsense from?


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cdc-says-americans-dont-have-to-wear-facemasks-because-of-coronavirus-2020-01-30
This article came out March 2. Here are some fun quotes:


> In fact the U.S. surgeon general recently urged the public to "STOP BUYING MASKS!" "They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can't get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!," wrote Surgeon General Jerome Adams on Twitter


Here is a fun quote about the CDC specifically:


> The CDC said last month it doesn't recommend people use face masks, making the announcement on the same day that first case of person-to-person transmission of coronavirus was reported in the U.S. The CDC recommendation on masks stands, a spokesman told MarketWatch Wednesday, even with the first reported case of a COVID-19 infection in an individual in California who had not been to China or been exposed to a person diagnosed with the virus.





> Adalja applauded the CDC's recommendation on face masks. "Even during H1N1 [flu epidemic], there was no recommendation to wear face masks," he said. They "end up creating a false sense of security and most people don't wear them appropriately," he said.





> Like the CDC, the World Health Organization advises people to wear a mask only if they are displaying symptoms of coronavirus or "taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection."


 Hmmm, except if you can spread the virus when you aren't showing symptoms . . .

They seem to have scrubbed from the internet the graphics that they had up earlier about them not being effective.


----------



## philoctetes

"No one was saying masks "were pretty much useless." Where did you get that nonsense from? '

in February, that was actually the common wisdom passed by CDC and Fauci on TV in February... only people on the front lines needed masks... there was a lot of media talk about how they were not effective enough to depend on... mixed signals everywhere everyday through Jan and Feb, while dems were still thinking about impeachment... go back and do research before you claim otherwise... if you weren't paying attention then you would not know this... this is all blind hindsight...

part of the problem was that we depended too much for these supplies from China and there was literally a black market on the N95s causing a shortage and people were just starting to make their own or use bandanas etc... so are we talking about N95s or bandanas being effective cause we don't have N95s yet, or even isopropyl alcohol, or Purelle, or anything like that, in sufficient quantities yet... do you eat meat? When there isn't enough they will say you don't need it...

and here we are in May and half the people around me still aren't wearing masks if I go somewhere they aren't enforced... Californians, liberal, conservative, rich, poor, but mostly young, want quarantine to end now, yet the numbers aren't good enough to permit that... we're all really sick of not being able to live normally... the lawsuits are accumulating in Sacramento... but let's call it genocide and blame Trump eh? it's so easy and there's nothing made-up or fabricated about it... might as well believe 911 was committed by Santa and his reindeer ...


----------



## Guest

Italians look on aghast at the UK's coronavirus responsehttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/10/italians-uk-coronavirus-response-boris-johnson-government-covid-19


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...rump-administration-for-us-coronavirus-deaths
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...al-coronavirus-slow-burn-20200508-p54qzc.html
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html


I see they all refer to the same single epidemiologist for the "genocide" comment. So one person claims that. I call that a statistical anomaly.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...rump-administration-for-us-coronavirus-deaths
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...al-coronavirus-slow-burn-20200508-p54qzc.html
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html


And you didn't respond - which state in the South is seeing genocide-level deaths?


----------



## pianozach

philoctetes said:


> Yesterday: Chuck Todd demonstrated why nobody can trust the Trump haters...
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> In the original clip, CBS News' Catherine Herridge asks Barr how history would judge the DOJ's decision - to which Barr responds "Well, history is written by the winners, so it largely depends on who's writing the history.
> 
> Todd cuts the clip off there, and says that he was "struck by the cynicism of the answer -- it's a correct answer, but he's the attorney general. He didn't make the case that he was upholding the rule of law. He was almost admitting that, yeah, this was a political job."
> 
> In fact, that's exactly what Barr said.
> 
> "I think a fair history would say *it was a good decision because it upheld the rule of law," *said the AG, adding *"It upheld the standards of the Department of Justice, and it undid what was an injustice.*"
> 
> In other words, Todd literally stole Barr's line about 'upholding the rule of law' and flipped it around in a case of blatant propaganda.
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Find your own source... it's all over the news this morning... this is typical, at least once a week the spineless neo-lib media will manufacture a story by distorting the truth... hundreds of instances since 2016... including their claims of social media interference which they can't track down if they tried... it's clearly coming from all ends of the spectrum and many different countries... when they get caught their retractions come too late and fall on deaf ears... the original lie is what sticks and they know that's how it works and they can get away with it... when Trump calls them out it's a "meltdown" and so on...
> 
> later NBC said
> 
> You're correct. Earlier today, we inadvertently and inaccurately cut short a video clip of an interview with AG Barr before offering commentary and analysis. The remaining clip included important remarks from the attorney general that we missed, and we regret the error.
> - Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) May 10, 2020


The flaw in your argument is that you are buying into Barr's defense.

There is so much wrong about Barr's defense: *"I think a fair history would say it was a good decision because it upheld the rule of law" . . . "It upheld the standards of the Department of Justice, and it undid what was an injustice."*

1. It was a terrible decision. It's only his OPINION that it was a *"good decision"*. Flynn pled guilty. Twice. The evidence was so overwhelming that Flynn's only option was to plead guilty in exchange for leniency in sentencing.

2. *"The rule of law"*. No, the only "rule of law" Barr followed was the loophole that allowed him to dismiss the charges after Flynn was found guilty

3. *"The Standards of the Department of Justice".* Wrong again. The DOJ doesn't interfere in the justice process, especially AFTER THE FACT.

4. *". . . undid an injustice"*. Oh Jeez. He pleaded guilty, twice, to lying about contacts with a Russian ambassador. He resigned from his position 24 days into the new administration, amid revelations that he had misled Vice President Mike Pence and others about conversations he had with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak about sanctions before Trump took office.


----------



## Room2201974

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> I see they all refer to the same single epidemiologist for the "genocide" comment. So one person claims that. I call that a statistical anomaly.


Yes blacks dying at a higher rate is an anomaly.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

pianozach said:


> The flaw in your argument is that you are buying into Barr's defense.
> 
> There is so much wrong about Barr's defense: "I think a fair history would say it was a good decision because it upheld the rule of law" . . . "It upheld the standards of the Department of Justice, and it undid what was an injustice."
> 
> 1. It was a terrible decision. It's only his OPINION that it was a "good decision". Flynn pled guilty. Twice. The evidence was so overwhelming that Flynn's only option was to plead guilty in exchange for leniency in sentencing.
> 
> 2. "The rule of law". No, the only "rule of law" Barr followed was the loophole that allowed him to dismiss the charges after Flynn was found guilty
> 
> 3. "The Standards of the Department of Justice". Wrong again. The DOJ doesn't interfere in the justice process, especially AFTER THE FACT.
> 
> 4. ". . . undid an injustice". Oh Jeez. He pleaded guilty, twice, to lying about contacts with a Russian ambassador. He resigned from his position 24 days into the new administration, amid revelations that he had misled Vice President Mike Pence and others about conversations he had with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak about sanctions before Trump took office.


Regarding his plea - I notice you forget that they were threatening to go after his son, which probably weighed heavily on Flynn opting to plea guilty.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> Yes blacks dying at a higher rate is an anomaly.


Genocide levels? Are blacks dying at a higher rate specifically in the South? That was your argument. You seemed to indicate this was a particular problem in the South. My understanding is that the South isn't really the hardest hit region in this country. A black person in the deep South has a much higher chance of either not catching this virus, or dying from it, than in good Northern states like New York and New Jersey.


----------



## Room2201974

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Genocide levels? Are blacks dying at a higher rate specifically in the South? That was your argument. You seemed to indicate this was a particular problem in the South. My understanding is that the South isn't really the hardest hit region in this country. A black person in the deep South has a much higher chance of either not catching this virus, or dying from it, than in good Northern states like New York and New Jersey.


The Confederate Red counties in my state are exhibiting the least amount of social distancing, wearing masks, ect. As soon as they saw the numbers in who was dying they clamored for reopening. Why should they care? It's killing by default.


----------



## KenOC

Room2201974 said:


> Yes blacks dying at a higher rate is an anomaly.


Would it make you happy if whites died at a higher rate than blacks? East Asians? It's bad enough that people tie this disease to politics, usually speciously. Now it's tied to racism.


----------



## philoctetes

"hey seem to have scrubbed from the internet the graphics that they had up earlier about them not being effective"

I am very mad at myself because I've taken a lot of screenshots on the way of all this nonsense since January but forgot to back them up recently when I did a full system reset... I told a friend this weekend about the idiot announcements by the WHO in January and he doesn't believe me...and we haven't even discussed the worst of Tedros yet


----------



## Jacck

KenOC said:


> Would it make you happy if whites died at a higher rate than blacks? East Asians? It'd bad enough that people tie this disease to politics, usually speciously. Now it's tied to racism.


if you elect a racist who run elections on fostering divisions and polarization, are you surprised that people are so polarized that they cannot unite behind Trump? (they would have united behind any other president)


----------



## philoctetes

KenOC said:


> Would it make you happy if whites died at a higher rate than blacks? East Asians? It's bad enough that people tie this disease to politics, usually speciously. Now it's tied to racism.


Bringing up race in every topic is morally superiority Ken did you not know that?


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> if you elect a racist who run elections on fostering divisions and polarization, are you surprised that people are so polarized that they cannot unite behind Trump? (they would have united behind any other president)


Apparently you never saw his rallies before the CV came along...


----------



## KenOC

I remember clearly all the "don't buy masks" talk. I believed then as now that the medical authorities were very worried about supply and felt it important to reserve what masks there were for front line health care workers. This was at least part of their motivation.


----------



## philoctetes

gonna play me some Neil Young now


----------



## philoctetes

I want to give my appreciation to those who continue to fight back against the propoganda... and nothing for those who don't (you are blocked)


----------



## Room2201974

KenOC said:


> Would it make you happy if whites died at a higher rate than blacks? East Asians? It's bad enough that people tie this disease to politics, usually speciously. Now it's tied to racism.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/us/coronavirus-african-americans-bias.html


----------



## philoctetes

If you're looking for genocide, maybe Africa is a better choice?? mmm? where everything innovative and risky gets tested first... is anybody even noticing what's happening there now? or is that not useful for the anti-American pro-China propaganda narrative...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> The Confederate Red counties in my state are exhibiting the least amount of social distancing, wearing masks, ect. As soon as they saw the numbers in who was dying they clamored for reopening. Why should they care? It's killing by default.


How many people have died in your entire state? And in those "Confederate Red" counties? I guarantee you that blacks living in your state stand a much better chance of surviving this pandemic than up in NYC and New Jersey. In fact, as I pointed out before in this thread, of the 10 states with the highest per capita deaths, 9 are blue states. Louisiana is the only Southern state on the list (and governed by a Democratic governor) - unless you count Maryland as a Southern state, but then, they didn't secede, and were a border state.

The highest Deep South state run by a Republican is Mississippi - with a whopping death rate of 14 per 100,000 people (compared to 137 in New York and 104 in New Jersey and 83 in Connecticut and 72 in Massachusetts - all good Northern states).


----------



## KenOC

Welcome to the future (though Ray Bradbury dreamed this one up first).

*Coronavirus: Robot dog enforces social distancing in Singapore park*


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

philoctetes said:


> "hey seem to have scrubbed from the internet the graphics that they had up earlier about them not being effective"
> 
> I am very mad at myself because I've taken a lot of screenshots on the way of all this nonsense since January but forgot to back them up recently when I did a full system reset... I told a friend this weekend about the idiot announcements by the WHO in January and he doesn't believe me...and we haven't even discussed the worst of Tedros yet


Yeah - they are heavily invested in scrubbing the early narrative from the experts who now are revered. The CDC told us masks weren't effective. The WHO parroted the Chinese line that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission (what, thousands of people in Wuhan all happened to eat infected bats?!?), and the WHO leader was a feckless toadie for the ChiComs.


----------



## philoctetes

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Yeah - they are heavily invested in scrubbing the early narrative from the experts who now are revered. The CDC told us masks weren't effective. The WHO parroted the Chinese line that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission (what, thousands of people in Wuhan all happened to eat infected bats?!?), and the WHO leader was a feckless toadie for the ChiComs.


Thanks, those who saw it then, still remember or retain evidence are above the noise...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

KenOC said:


> I remember clearly all the "don't buy masks" talk. I believed then as now that the medical authorities were very worried about supply and felt it important to reserve what masks there were for front line health care workers. This was at least part of their motivation.


Oh, I'm sure of it. They made that judgment - now they should have to live with it, rather than pretend they never said it in the first place. And maybe if they weren't busy saying masks weren't effective, there might have been a bigger push earlier to produce more.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Just a sidenote:
The New York Times is behind a paywall. Why don't people who want to cite it also paste some quotes in here, rather than just throwing up links not everybody can access?


----------



## philoctetes

It was about ventilators then... 

it might as well have been about Unobtainium... whatever was hardest to get, that's what the scammers wanted, at any cost to anybody else, the cuomo / blasio NY scam was to shake down the whole world to give up supplies for NY that NY did not need immediately... actually hoarding ventilators but let's forget about that too... receiving a medical boat that was never used... dancing nurses on tic toc...


----------



## DaveM

Kieran said:


> Not defending Trump, but ebola wasn't quite the same. And didn't the Nobel Peace Prize saint increase America's wars, while also become something like a game-boy addict on drone striking small villages every day of his reign...


Yes, I remember that time well when Ireland offered to send in its Special-Ops to fight Isis terrorists and take out the caliphate in hand-to-hand combat so that we wouldn't have to use our drones.


----------



## Room2201974

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> How many people have died in your entire state? And in those "Confederate Red" counties? I guarantee you that blacks living in your state stand a much better chance of surviving this pandemic than up in NYC and New Jersey. In fact, as I pointed out before in this thread, of the 10 states with the highest per capita deaths, 9 are blue states. Louisiana is the only Southern state on the list (and governed by a Democratic governor) - unless you count Maryland as a Southern state, but then, they didn't secede, and were a border state.
> 
> The highest Deep South state run by a Republican is Mississippi - with a whopping death rate of 14 per 100,000 people (compared to 137 in New York and 104 in New Jersey and 83 in Connecticut and 72 in Massachusetts - all good Northern states).


I can't give you any numbers of the dead in my State since it is only reporting deaths of State residents. It's a re-election gambit for the future. We may never know the true numbers.


----------



## philoctetes

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Just a sidenote:
> The New York Times is behind a paywall. Why don't people who want to cite it also paste some quotes in here, rather than just throwing up links not everybody can access?


I NEVER click on links without a text headline... especially if it's from a source I don't trust... just not interested enough without it... pretty much assume I will stop reading after the first sentence... you can tell the second they are trying to brainwash you...


----------



## Room2201974

https://phys.org/news/2020-03-discrimination-asian-black-americans-coronavirus.html


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

philoctetes said:


> Thanks, those who saw it then, still remember or retain evidence are above the noise...


The shortage never came. Something Trump receives no credit for, but he chose not to simply send the amounts that all the governors asked for (including NY), and instead to ship to areas as needed, not desired. And there was never a shortage, even though initially he took crap for not giving the governors what they asked for and claims of "not prepared" were screamed around.


----------



## Open Book

EdwardBast said:


> - No one was saying masks "were pretty much useless." Where did you get that nonsense from?


Yes, they were, actually. There's so much white noise out there that I'm not going to look for a link, and few are claiming this now. But some experts were originally claiming that the masks were not useful in preventing infection and advising ordinary people not to use them. It was probably a fib to keep people from hoarding them since they were scarce and sorely needed by medical personnel.

There's _still _a shortage of things that would help the average person fight contamination with the virus. Why aren't domestic factories being repurposed or newly built to ramp up production of alcohol, wipes, and medical grade masks? This is a war, in past wars production of weapons was accelerated.

Now that we're told we must use masks there aren't any to be had. Most of the cloth masks are less adequate, though certainly better than nothing.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> I can't give you any numbers of the dead in my State since it is only reporting deaths of State residents. It's a re-election gambit for the future. We may never know the true numbers.


Really? I can easily find the death numbers for each state. Here you go:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Go ahead - you don't have to tell us the state, just tell us the death rate. Maybe they aren't super accurate, but they'll give us a good idea.

But what do you mean only reporting deaths of State residents? Are people traveling to your state to die? Death tourism?


----------



## philoctetes

Haaaa, who are the conspiracy theorists now? hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

propaganda supporter or conspiracy theorist? which is the better choice? what it the difference? which is more intelligent? hahahahahahahahaha


----------



## Flamme

I 2 like kieran feel overwhelmed by the sheer amount of US policy in a topic that concerns the whole world...I know how it is when some1 lives rent free in my head and I feel trump somehow managed 2 live rent free in many american 1s...Ppl became obsessed with him w/o even realizing it...I c the test and vaccine will b obligatory 4 travel...If that is not an overture 2 a dystopian paranoid world, I dont know what is.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Room2201974 said:


> https://phys.org/news/2020-03-discrimination-asian-black-americans-coronavirus.html


See, now perceived discrimination is not exactly on the same level as genocide. I don't think I am being controversial to say that they are not comparable.


----------



## Room2201974

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> See, now perceived discrimination is not exactly on the same level as genocide. I don't think I am being controversial to say that they are not comparable.


That remark was for Ken saying that we shouldn't be viewing racism as being part of the Covid story...but it is.


----------



## philoctetes

Flamme said:


> I 2 like kieran feel overwhelmed by the sheer amount of US policy in a topic that concerns the whole world...I know how it is when some1 lives rent free in my head and I feel trump somehow managed 2 live rent free in many american 1s...Ppl became obsessed with him w/o even realizing it...I c the test and vaccine will b obligatory 4 travel...If that is not an overture 2 a dystopian paranoid world, I dont know what is.


classic global passive-aggressive behavior - people doing nothing while looking someone to blame for their passivity... conditioned over decades of dependence on government and corporate employment - just what the neo-libs want the future to be all about...


----------



## Open Book

KenOC said:


> Welcome to the future (though Ray Bradbury dreamed this one up first).
> 
> *Coronavirus: Robot dog enforces social distancing in Singapore park*


The moderators will punish me, but that robot is so dog-like I keep expecting it to pee in the bushes, ha ha.


----------



## EdwardBast

Open Book said:


> Yes, they were, actually. There's so much white noise out there that I'm not going to look for a link, and few are claiming this now. But some experts were originally claiming that the masks were not useful in preventing infection and advising ordinary people not to use them. It was probably a fib to keep people from hoarding them since they were scarce and sorely needed by medical personnel.
> 
> There's _still _a shortage of things that would help the average person fight contamination with the virus. Why aren't domestic factories being repurposed or newly built to ramp up production of alcohol, wipes, and medical grade masks? This is a war, in past wars production of weapons was accelerated.
> 
> Now that we're told we must use masks there aren't any to be had. Most of the cloth masks are less adequate, though certainly better than nothing.


No one was saying it about N95 masks, the ones all health professionals would have been using had they been available.


----------



## KenOC

Room2201974 said:


> That remark was for Ken saying that we shouldn't be viewing racism as being part of the Covid story...but it is.


People obsessed with race will naturally see race as a main theme in many matters.


----------



## EdwardBast

philoctetes said:


> "No one was saying masks "were pretty much useless." Where did you get that nonsense from? '
> 
> in February, that was actually the common wisdom passed by CDC and Fauci on TV in February... only people on the front lines needed masks... there was a lot of media talk about how they were not effective enough to depend on... mixed signals everywhere everyday through Jan and Feb, while dems were still thinking about impeachment... go back and do research before you claim otherwise... if you weren't paying attention then you would not know this... this is all blind hindsight...


Cloth masks aren't effective without social distancing and stay at home orders and the CDC was right to say so. N95 masks were in short supply and absolutely needed on the front lines.


----------



## Flamme

philoctetes said:


> classic global passive-aggressive behavior - people doing nothing while looking someone to blame for their passivity... conditioned over decades of dependence on government and corporate employment - just what the neo-libs want the future to be all about...


Watched on BBC some woman from IBM who said ppl will now have 2 learn ''new things'', in a ''new reality'' 2 stay afloat with jobs and things, so does it mean many work places will b ''cancelled''? Not all jobs can b done from home...


----------



## Jacck

EdwardBast said:


> Cloth masks aren't effective without social distancing and stay at home orders and the CDC was right to say so. N95 masks were in short supply and absolutely needed on the front lines.


they are effective. Even a plain cloth mask stops or reduces aerosol spread from the mouth of the infected people.


----------



## philoctetes

EdwardBast said:


> Cloth masks aren't effective without social distancing and stay at home orders and the CDC was right to say so. N95 masks were in short supply and absolutely needed on the front lines.


Ah, so you're the expert now... even though your expertise is absolutely superfluous and three months late...


----------



## EdwardBast

Jacck said:


> they are effective. Even a plain cloth mask stops or reduces aerosol spread from the mouth of the infected people.


Not effective enough without the other measures. Give everyone in a meat processing facility a cloth mask and there will still be hundreds infected. Not effective for any confined space where people gather for any length of time.


----------



## Open Book

EdwardBast said:


> Cloth masks aren't effective without social distancing and stay at home orders and the CDC was right to say so. N95 masks were in short supply and absolutely needed on the front lines.


My governor has now made face coverings mandatory. The fact is masks of any sort were formerly discouraged probably because ordinary people were free to buy the high grade medical masks. They don't care, they would buy any medical-type mask.

Of course you shouldn't relax social distancing just because you wear a mask. Social distancing or not, all other things being equal, face covering gives you a better chance than no face covering. That's common sense. How can any barrier not be better than no barrier?

However, most masks don't protect your eyes, which are somewhat vulnerable to infection through the air from what I have heard. That's probably why they claim that masks are better used on sick people.


----------



## philoctetes

if there is any value in hindsight, it's to see that the combination of ANY mask and proper social distance seems to be the most effective prevention measure we know so far... and it's NOW that NOBODY questions that. not back in February.. more dissonance... again...

Philoctetes: I wish I could join the bros in Troy
Edward Bast: I wish I could write an opera about that, but meanwhile let me praise Agamemnon

Gaddis is no longer with us, but maybe Pynchon will write about COVID before it's too late... either would have noticed all these details...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

EdwardBast said:


> No one was saying it about N95 masks, the ones all health professionals would have been using had they been available.


See, now you are moving the goal posts. This is what you said:


> No one was saying masks "were pretty much useless." Where did you get that nonsense from?


Now you are talking about N95 masks.

It was a calculated lie - they knew it was a lie, but they felt it was necessary to preserve supplies for healthcare workers. But it was still a lie, and they should own it, rather than pretend they never said it. And like I said - who knows how much more masks would have been made (the cheaper surgical masks for normal people, leaving N95 masks for healthcare) had the disinformation not been put out by the CDC. The CDC has much to answer for in all of this.


----------



## philoctetes

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> See, now you are moving the goal posts.


Bravo................................................................. the real nonsense is obvious


----------



## Room2201974

KenOC said:


> People obsessed with race will naturally see race as a main theme in many matters.


Might be the difference between growing up in SoCAL and growing up in the deep south. Here, you go to the back counties and you see more Confederate flags than you see Stars and Stripes. Tis true, tis a pity, tis a pity, tis true. Oh, and yes, more discrimination toward blacks and more black Covid deaths are also, sadly, true. Those numbers are not an obsession, I just choose not to wear blinders when viewing them.


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

EdwardBast said:


> Not effective enough without the other measures. Give everyone in a meat processing facility a cloth mask and there will still be hundreds infected. Not effective for any confined space where people gather for any length of time.


Do you think that covering your mouth when coughing is 100% effective in preventing spread of flu? And yet we still tell people to do so? Masks are not a silver bullet, but they are one of many tools that can help bring down spread. And given that people can spread this when they are asymptomatic, and the masks are most effective on people who may be spreading, it seems like widespread mask usage would be very useful.


----------



## philoctetes

After beating this horse dead three times over, we can dispute the faults and merits of face touching policies and if they should be enforced by drone attack, punishment by amputation of the hands, etc..


----------



## Open Book

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> See, now you are moving the goal posts. This is what you said:
> 
> Now you are talking about N95 masks.
> 
> It was a calculated lie - they knew it was a lie, but they felt it was necessary to preserve supplies for healthcare workers. But it was still a lie, and they should own it, rather than pretend they never said it. And like I said - who knows how much more masks would have been made (the cheaper surgical masks for normal people, leaving N95 masks for healthcare) had the disinformation not been put out by the CDC. The CDC has much to answer for in all of this.


Here's another lie, by omission.

Among all the stats being kept you will probably not see a table of infections and deaths by occupation published. Not until all this is over. No one wants you to know how hazardous certain occupations are, any that bring people into close proximity with a large number of other people. Like working in a supermarket, meat plant, farm, nursing home, hospital...

I mean, we know these jobs are more risky but we don't know _how_ risky and don't really want to know. These are essential occupations and we can't afford that these jobs be abandoned. The workers can't easily find other jobs and most have to keep their jobs.

One reason blacks and other groups are dying at a higher rate probably has to do with the fact that they are over-represented in certain occupations.


----------



## philoctetes

Another place to look for genocide is Planned Parenthood, blacks are 2.7 times more likely than whites to have abortions... organ harvesting is big biz


----------



## Kieran

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Do you think that covering your mouth when coughing is 100% effective in preventing spread of flu? And yet we still tell people to do so? Masks are not a silver bullet, but they are one of many tools that can help bring down spread. And given that people can spread this when they are asymptomatic, and the masks are most effective on people who may be spreading, it seems like widespread mask usage would be very useful.


It has to be better than nothing, hasn't it? Even a small shield is still a shield, and it would deflect or catch the virus better than no shield at all...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Germany's Der Spiegel is reporting that German intelligence agency BND has information that the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus met with Xi Jinping back on January 21st, and in the meeting agreed to suppress the information about human-to-human transmission and calling it a pandemic. BND concluded that this cost the world 4-6 weeks in the critical phase when the virus was spreading.


----------



## Flamme

The long hot summer is coming, I cant imagine wearing mask or gloves.


----------



## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Germany's Der Spiegel is reporting that German intelligence agency BND has information that the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus met with Xi Jinping back on January 21st, and in the meeting agreed to suppress the information about human-to-human transmission and calling it a pandemic. BND concluded that this cost the world 4-6 weeks in the critical phase when the virus was spreading.


possibly, though the wakeup call was Italy. And between Italy and the time the virus hit the US, there is a month when Trump did nothing and called it "their new hoax". If he acted during this month, the US could have been much better prepared


----------



## philoctetes

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Germany's Der Spiegel is reporting that German intelligence agency BND has information that the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus met with Xi Jinping back on January 21st, and in the meeting agreed to suppress the information about human-to-human transmission and calling it a pandemic. BND concluded that this cost the world 4-6 weeks in the critical phase when the virus was spreading.


Just checking: "Der Spiegel is a centre-left German weekly news magazine published in Hamburg."

Another newsworthy but-not-new story that developed from *conspiracy theory* and "far-right" investigating... where the mistakes and coverups of other people than Trump, the "experts", will come back to light...


----------



## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> possibly, though the wakeup call was Italy. And between Italy and the time the virus hit the US, there is a month when Trump did nothing and called it "their new hoax". If he acted during this month, the US could have been much better prepared


Prove it jacck, or just knock it off, you are spreading misinformation, you are playing the Chuck Todd game...

seriously dude, if someone from the WHO shot you with a gun you'd die saying it was Trump's fault... your response to this new story is just ridiculous

When Trump was stopping flights from China, Pelosi and Schumer called it racist, and that was "the new hoax" that Trump referred to... their impeachment had been a hoax, now they say he didn't do it soon enough, but they're the ones who argued against it... they are the hoaxers, and now everybody will see that the January response from the WHO was a hoax...

Should travel from Italy have been cut off into New York? Probably... but the NY political leadership did not wake up soon enough... Schumer, Cuomo, etc all too busy attacking Trump to notice their state was on fire and where the fuel was coming from...


----------



## Kieran

Flamme said:


> The long hot summer is coming, I cant imagine wearing mask or gloves.


Hopefully the hot weather will mean you won't have to...


----------



## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> possibly, though the wakeup call was Italy. And between Italy and the time the virus hit the US, there is a month when Trump did nothing and called it "their new hoax". If he acted during this month, the US could have been much better prepared


Italy sure would have liked some more advanced warning. But way to still turn this into a "but Trump" talking point. Because that is what is important here - making every thing here Trump's fault.


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## Jacck

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Italy sure would have liked some more advanced warning. But way to still turn this into a "but Trump" talking point. Because that is what is important here - making every thing here Trump's fault.


No, this is not about Trump. This is about his supporters, who constantly find excuses for him. Sure, China shares some blame, WHO shares some blame, but so does Trump (possibly the largest share). Yet, I have not seen any of his supporters to actually acknowledge it. Which means that his supporters are intellectually dishonest.


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## philoctetes

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Italy sure would have liked some more advanced warning. But way to still turn this into a "but Trump" talking point. Because that is what is important here - making every thing here Trump's fault.


Sabotage is cheap and common, another animal nature that humans should resist but fail to in the pursuit of their goals, but when you point out how it actually works you're a conspiracy theorist...


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## Room2201974

If you can't keep Covid 19 out of the West Wing, you sure thehell ain't gonna keep it out of Walmart.


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## philoctetes

Jacck said:


> No, this is not about Trump. This is about his supporters, who constantly find excuses for him. Sure, China shares some blame, WHO shares some blame, but so does Trump (possibly the largest share). Yet, I have not seen any of his supporters to actually acknowledge it. Which means that his supporters are intellectually dishonest.


Everything about this post is wrong... I'm not a Trump supporter to start with... but I'm being forced into that corner by smaller minds and inferior options... I believe that ideology is a mind trap... and you seem like an ideologist who pushes propaganda without care about the ultimate reliability or value of your claims... the 'whataboutism' doesn't provide any usefulness, clarity, or depth, it's just too little too late and far off target...

It's May now and the only purpose for talking about Jan-Feb is to keep pushing these anti-Trump lies until everybody forgets the truth, and no matter who I vote for in November - it surely won't be Uncle Joe - I just don't want to see lies prevail right now... the lies from the anti-Trumpers, the NWO globalists, pro-China media, the WHO, social media troll farms, whatever...

"This is not about Trump, but it is" the red flag has been waving for weeks, propaganda non-sense non-stop... propaganda and sabotage... yeah it's our INTELLECTUAL DISHONESTY now hahahahahahahahahaha which means we're supposed to be told what to see think and believe and not what we actually know by observation.... it's like we're all FRESHMEN in college again hahahahahahahahahah just making up stuff outta thin air... like scientsts!!!

o yes jacck is a model of intellectual HONESTY I am so overwhelmed! hahahahahahahah what kind of cult must one belong in to think like this?????


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## Jacck

philoctetes said:


> ... I believe that ideology is a mind trap... and you seem like an ideologist who pushes propaganda without care about the ultimate reliability or value of your claims...


if you know me so well, then tell me what is my ideology


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> No, this is not about Trump. This is about his supporters, who constantly find excuses for him. *Sure, China shares some blame, WHO shares some blame*, but so does Trump (possibly the largest share). Yet, I have not seen any of his supporters to actually acknowledge it. Which means that his supporters are intellectually dishonest.


Wow! How magnanimous of you to admit that China and WHO share "some blame." You must have really struggled to admit that much before going back to claiming Trump has the "largest share" of the blame. And you call us dishonest. The sheer nerve it took to wave off most of the blame for China and the WHO. Makes me somewhat suspect you are a Chinese troll.


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## philoctetes

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Wow! How magnanimous of you to admit that China and WHO share "some blame." You must have really struggled to admit that much before going back to claiming Trump has the "largest share" of the blame. And you call us dishonest. The sheer nerve it took to wave off most of the blame for China and the WHO. Makes me somewhat suspect you are a Chinese troll.


I suspect he's a pro troll too... the Amazon forum had a problem with troll farmers during the 2016 election, and then it was closed permanently... and the next election is coming soon... we should expect troll farms here.. it's probably a prime source of employment right now due to CV as well..

the modus operandi is to always talk down to the target, no matter how smart they are, so they get frustrated and lash out, and there is no payoff is being sensitive or thoughtful with them, as we can see in this thread...


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## Guest

Read all about it!!!

*Old people die in hospitals and nursing care*.

Read all about it!!!


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## Ekim the Insubordinate

Jacck said:


> if you know me so well, then tell me what is my ideology


Your ideology is "Trump is always wrong." Every post in here is in service to that ideology. Evidence that China and the WHO worked together to suppress information about this virus that could have cost the world 4-6 weeks in their response, and you shrug it off as them deserving "some blame."

I do think you are a Chinese agent. Tell me - how much money does China invest in your nation's economy?


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## Guest

Ekim the Insubordinate said:


> Your ideology is "Trump is always wrong." Every post in here is in service to that ideology. Evidence that China and the WHO worked together to suppress information about this virus that could have cost the world 4-6 weeks in their response, and you shrug it off as them deserving "some blame."
> 
> I do think you are a Chinese agent. Tell me - how much money does China invest in your nation's economy?


The Australian PM has called for an 'independent' inquiry into the virus and, in particular, the Wuhan wet markets and Wuhan laboratory. The one thing that is certain is that the Chinese will NEVER accept responsibility for anything and they will treat the rest of the world as they do their own people.

As my eldest son says (and it's worth repeating) "If you make a pact with the devil don't complain about the terms"!!!


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## Room2201974

2024 is just around the corner and someone is eyeing the oval office. So if you're DJT's mini me, then by all means, let the gaslighting begin.

https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article242631411.html


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## philoctetes

Man, I always wanted a Mini-Me


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## eljr

Christabel said:


> Read all about it!!!
> 
> *Old people die in hospitals and nursing care*.
> 
> Read all about it!!!


omfg

the things people say... chalk this up


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## Room2201974

eljr said:


> omfg
> 
> the things people say... chalk this up


Yes, plural deaths so callously referred to. Must be related to Miriam Margolyes!


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## eljr

jacck said:


> possibly, though the wakeup call was italy. And between italy and the time the virus hit the us, there is a month when trump did nothing and called it "their new hoax". If he acted during this month, the us could have been much better prepared


qft

...........................


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## eljr

philoctetes said:


> whatever was hardest to get, that's what the scammers wanted, at any cost to anybody else, the cuomo / blasio NY scam was to shake down the whole world to give up supplies for NY that NY did not need immediately... actually hoarding ventilators but let's forget about that too... receiving a medical boat that was never used... dancing nurses on tic toc...


Mind blowing irrational bias. God Bless.


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## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Another place to look for genocide is Planned Parenthood, blacks are 2.7 times more likely than whites to have abortions... organ harvesting is big biz


What does this have to do with Covid-19? Or do you think this is now a pulpit for any random thought or belief system, no matter how likely to set off a stink storm, that comes into your head?


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## philoctetes

DaveM said:


> What does this have to do with Covid-19? Or do you think this is now a pulpit for any random thought or belief system, no matter how likely to set off a stink storm, that comes into your head?


Another poster made the connection between COVID and genocide, a priori... did you object to them as well... I don't time to look

You, on other hand, play it soooo safe, smugly buried in the noise, connecting nothing with nothing, and your only contribution is to ask, over and over, what the point of a post is, without doing your homework... so bug off...


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## KenOC

Jacck said:


> possibly, though the wakeup call was Italy. And between Italy and the time the virus hit the US, there is a month when Trump did nothing and called it "their new hoax". If he acted during this month, the US could have been much better prepared


Those with an interest in rewriting history will always manage to do so.

"The White House Coronavirus Task Force was established on 29 January. On 31 January, the Trump administration declared a public health emergency, and restricted entry for travellers from China who were not citizens of the United States."

Needless to say, the screaming heads on the left cried "xenophobia" and "racism".

_"And between Italy and the time the virus hit the US, there is a month when Trump did nothing..." ​_
Your timeline is off here as well. The virus hit the US (January 20) before it hit Italy (isolated cases in Rome on January 31 and then the real outbreak in Lombardy on February 22). Since then, of course, even earlier cases in the US have been discovered.


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## DaveM

philoctetes said:


> Another poster made the connection between COVID and genocide, a priori... did you object to them as well... I don't time to look
> 
> You, on other hand, play it soooo safe, smugly buried in the noise, connecting nothing with nothing, and your only contribution is to ask, over and over, what the point of a post is, without doing your homework... so bug off...


What does 'I don't time to look' mean?

You didn't refer to any post about genocide. No one talked about organ-harvesting. Yes, you're right, I do play it 'soooo safe' by making sure to access my frontal lobe when posting.


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## eljr

philoctetes said:


> Another poster made the connection between COVID and genocide, a priori... did you object to them as well... I don't time to look
> 
> You, on other hand, play it soooo safe, smugly buried in the noise, connecting nothing with nothing, and your only contribution is to ask, over and over, what the point of a post is, without doing your homework... so bug off...


you know what?

Just never mind, it's not worth it.


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## mmsbls

Closed due to excessive politics, sniping, and chiding. We are deciding how to proceed.


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